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Resident anger increases in Egypt's Port Said
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Reports are surfacing that North Koreans are turning to cannibalism for survival. In one horrendous story, a father was put to death by firing squad after it was discovered that the had killed and eaten two of his children last year. (This story reminds me that decades ago I read a book on the three-year Nazi siege of Leningrad, with numerous deaths by cannibalism.) Global Post and Daily Mail (London)
Israel's warplanes crossed Lebanon's air space and struck targets in Syria on Wednesday. However, there is a dispute over what the targets were. Unnamed U.S. intelligence officials say that Israel was targeting a convoy of trucks carrying advanced Russian-made SA-17 anti-aircraft to Lebanon, where Hezbollah would use them to target Israeli planes. However, Syria's media disputed this account, saying that the Israeli warplanes had struck a "military research center" building near Damascus. It's possible that both were targeted, and if a military research center was targeted, it may be that it was storing or producing chemical weapons. Bloomberg and BBC
Since January 1 of this year, between 40,000 to 50,000 Syrians have fled into Jordan, in the fastest influx since the beginning of the Syrian conflict. At this rate, there will be over one million Syrian refugees in Jordan alone, and several million more in other countries. Iraq has closed its borders to refugees, but Syria has kept its borders open, with the result that the flow of refugees is overwhelming Jordan. The winter has been particularly cold, and people are living in makeshift tents with little clothing, rarely getting more than one meal a day. The United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) is calling for $1.5 billion in donations from other countries to provide aid to the refugees. Al-Jazeera and Reuters
The Governor of Port Said, on the Suez Canal in Egypt, has reduced the 9-hour per night curfew imposed by president Mohamed Morsi to 4 hours, from 1-5 am each night. A similar curfew reduction also went into effect for the other two Suez Canal cities. It's just as well that the curfews were reduced, since citizens of the three cities were ignoring them anyway. Al-Ahram (Cairo)
President Mohamed Morsi's highly selective "state of emergency" curfews for cities along the Suez Canal not only did not restore order, but it highlighted how out of the control the situation is becoming. Port Said residents have been particularly contemptuous of the fact that Morsi did not impose a curfew on Cairo, where the riots and demonstrations have been much bigger than in the canal cities. Furthermore, the canal cities make a lot of money for Cairo, but it all goes into the pockets of the wealthy élite in Cairo, with little returning to Port Said. There is increasingly the feeling in Port Said that the Cairo is losing control of the country, and that they're on their own. According to one Port Said protester, "[The authorities] are sitting in their houses, waiting to cash their salaries at the end of the month, without taking any action toward the disintegration of the town, leaving people to the chaos." Foreign Policy
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Jan-13 World View -- Israel's warplanes strike target in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Jan-2013)
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Lakhdar Brahimi says that Syria is 'breaking up before everyone's eyes'
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French and Malian troops regained control of Timbuktu on Monday, and were greeted by local residents with broad smiles and wild cheers. However, ethnic tensions are rising, as black-skinned Malians are seeking revenge against light-skinned ethnic Tuaregs and "Arabs," who are blamed for the jihadist horrors that the Malians suffered. Because of reports of looting and targeting of civilians in newly liberated areas, France in favor of rapidly deploying "international observers" to ensure that human rights are respected in Mali. It's unclear to me what "international observers" means, but I suspect it implies troops from other non-African countries who won't take side in Mali's ethnic battles. France's president François Hollande is calling for additional troops from African nations, so that France can reduce its own commitment, which is becoming increasingly unpopular in France. France 24
Just two weeks ago, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron said that no British troops would be sent to join France's troops in Mali, but now Cameron is flying to Algerian to underline his brand new commitment to send hundreds of British troops to Mali and the region. Britain's defense minister denies that this is "mission creep," as the troops will be used for training Malian troops:
"It is not our intention to deploy combat troops. We are very clear about the risk of mission creep and we have defined very carefully the support we are willing and able to provide to the French and the Malian authorities.We have an absolute duty to intervene wherever there is a threat to Britain's national security and the security of Britain's interests around the world and this is exactly such a case. This is a well-judged, well-leveraged intervention that will deliver efficiently a result that is in Britain's national interest."
However, an opposition leader says that Mali could become Britain's Vietnam:
"The American catastrophe in Vietnam started off with American troops in a training capacity."
Britain's announcement follows by one day the American military's announcement that it plans to set up drone base in Niger on Mali border, along with 300 troops. Guardian (London) and Telegraph (London)
An unintended consequence of the West's military intervention in Libya in 2011 is that, when it ended, hardened Tuareg and al-Qaeda linked jihadist rebels fled to Mali and took control of the northern two-thirds of the nation. Now, with French and Malian troops driving the rebels out of the major cities in northern Mali, the United Nations is concerned that they'll return to Libya and destabilize that country:
"The opposition of armed radical groups to the military intervention in Mali may exacerbate the situation (in Libya) given ideological and/or ethnic affiliations as well as porous borders in Libya."
Protesters continued to ignore on Tuesday evening a curfew order broadcast on Sunday by president Mohamed Morsi, calling the situation a "state of emergency." Protests between Islamists on the one hand and secularists and liberals on the other hand have been growing more raucous each week. Egypt's defense minister / army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, says that failure to resolve the situation "could lead to grave repercussions" and would threaten Egypt's stability:
"The continuing conflict between political forces and their differences concerning the management of the country could lead to a collapse of the state and threaten future generations."
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera
The United Nations / Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, told the Security Council on Tuesday that extreme horrors are destabilizing Syria, and threatening contamination in neighboring countries. The warning comes a day after a shocking new massacre was discovered in Aleppo, with 79 bodies pulled from the river.
"Unprecedented levels of horror have been reached. The tragedy does not have an end.I'm sorry if I sound like an old broken record. The country is breaking up before everyone's eyes. Only the international community can help and first and foremost the Security Council."
Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Russia and China have repeatedly blocked any Security Council resolutions threatening sanctions, and those vetoes are unlikely to change. Brahimi added the risk of contamination is another reason why action is required:
"Most regional parties have aligned with one of the parties in Syria. There might be implications if the crisis continues spiraling. The refugee flow is becoming a matter of controversy in these countries.Syria is becoming a playground for competing forces.
None of the neighbors is immune to the fallout consequences of the conflict. The region is facing the risk of contamination."
Israeli Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel warned Tuesday that Syria is falling apart and no one knows what the next day may bring: “War may not break out tomorrow,” he said, “but we stand ready for any eventuality.” Telegraph (London) and Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jan-13 World View -- Mali, Libya, Egypt, Syria governments in sharp deterioration thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Jan-2013)
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Iran announces a new finger-amputating machine for thieves
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Iran's official government news service Fars/Isna has unveiled something that could be out of Edgar Allan Poe's horror stories: A medieval-looking contraption that amputates fingers. Official photos show two masked men, dressed entirely in black, hold a blindfolded man's hand in a vice while another turns a wheel that operators a rotary blade that performs the amputation. Historically, amputating a finger is the standard punishment for thieves. Independent (London) and Fars ISNA
It's almost impossible, these days, for any crooked government official in any country, perpetrating even the most massive of crimes defrauding the public, to be investigated and charged, but Andreas Georgiou, head of Greece's Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), has managed to find a way. This is really mind-boggling. According to the charges, Greece's budget deficit should have been computed as 4% of GDP in 2009. But, the charges continue, Georgiou colluded with the EU and the IMF to fudge the figures so that the budget deficit came out at 15.6% of GDP -- higher than Ireland's at 14.3% -- in order to justify the May 2010 bailout and its drastic austerity measures. Some Greek commentators and politicians have seized upon these allegations as evidence of a wider plot against Greece or proof that the country was a victim of sinister forces from within and abroad. Kathimerini
A steep increase in the cost of heating oil is causing many people in Greece to switch to wood-burning, at half the cost, to keep warm during the cold winter months. The vast appetite for wood has encouraged extensive illegal logging - by local residents for private use but also by organized gangs. Forestry workers have even been attacked by illegal loggers wielding axes or guns, creating a "Far West-style situation." However, the wood-burning is creating a severe health hazard, because of heavy smog that contains not only wood particles, but also particles of noxious varnishes and synthetic coatings from burnt furniture. Kathimerini
Protesters torched police vehicles in downtown Cairo on Monday, and on Monday evening, the three Suez Canal cities -- Suez, Ismailia and Port Said -- witnessed mass demonstrations in defiance of the state of emergency curfew announced by president Mohamed Morsi on Sunday. Many shops and street cafes remained open after the curfew, and in Ismailia, residents organized football (soccer) games in front of government headquarters in a show of defiance. Violent clashes are continuing, but the army is not interfering or trying to impose the curfew. Al-Ahram (Cairo)
The United States and Niger signed an agreement on Monday that paves the way for a U.S. military drone base in the country, near the border with Mali, allowing for up to 300 military service members and contractors in the base to operate the drone aircraft. The new base will permit monitoring of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and will gather intelligence for French warplanes targeting strikes against jihadists in Mali. AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jan-13 World View -- Egyptian protesters defy president Morsi's 'state of emergency' curfew thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Jan-2013)
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Italy's Silvio Berlusconi defends the 'good' Mussolini
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Thousands of residents of the city of northern Mali's city of Gao, under jihadist control since last April, turned out to celebrate the invading French and Malian troops, shouting "Liberté!" and "Vive la France!" At he same time, French troops on Sunday captured Timbuktu airport and prepared to recapture Timbuktu as well. As little resistance is expected there as there was in Gao, because the jihadists simply left town when they learned the French were coming. They're hiding out in nearby villages or in their networks of tunnels. The expectation is that the jihadists will be back as soon as the French troops leave. In order to prevent that outcome, the African Union is calling on France, as well as Mali's neighboring African countries, to provide a lot more troops to station in these towns to keep the jihadists out. Guardian and AFP
According to South Korean military sources, North Korean president Kim Jong-un is expected imminently to travel to the planned site of an announced nuclear weapon test, and personally deliver a written order to go ahead with the test. According to a military source,
"Kim Jong Un will likely give an order approving a nuclear test to propagate his political and military achievements as the country’s supreme military commander and use it to consolidate his regime."
Intelligence officials are closely tracking the movements of senior North Korean officials to see if they visit the test site, as this would probably signal that the test is near. Dong-a Ilbo (Seoul)
As we reported two days ago, an editorial in the Chinese Communist Party's Global Times threatens to "reduce its assistance to North Korea," if the country goes ahead with the announced nuclear weapon test. A new editorial threatens to cut foreign trade and investment from China:
"If North Korea does proceed with a third nuclear test, they will pay a large price economically.They have made improving the economy a top priority this year and have made public commitments domestically about improving the livelihood of ordinary people.
But North Korea will not be able to make any meaningful improvements in the economy without foreign trade and investment. This now comes largely from China.
It is hard to imagine that foreign investors will be willing to come to North Korea anytime soon if there is a third nuclear test, and especially if the Chinese government supports adding even more sanctions in a new UN Security Council resolution, as would be inevitable in the case of such a provocative action."
The editorial claims that North Korea's middle class has experienced "significant improvements in daily living" recently, but that those gains would be lost after a nuclear test. Global Times
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With seven more deaths on Sunday in clashes between protesters and police, Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi went on nationwide television to declare a state of emergency in three coastal cities, Port Said, Suez, and Ismailia, scenes of major protests and deaths in the last three days.
"If I see the state with its people, institutions and public and private property in danger, I will be forced to do more than this for the interests of Egypt. This is my duty and I will not hesitate when it comes to it."
There will be a curfew in effect from 9 pm to 6 am in all three cities for the next 30 days, starting on Monday.
However, there's a question whether the curfew will be honored in Port Said, where a court sentenced 21 people to death on Saturday for a football (soccer) riot last year. ( "27-Jan-13 World View -- Egypt in crisis after two days of violent clashes") The residents are furious because of the disproportionately high sentences, and because many people believe that the police were complicit in the deaths that resulting from the rioting. On Saturday, Port Said protesters chanted, "Down, down Morsi, down down the regime that killed and tortured us!" And on Sunday, protesters in Port Said reacted with mockery and skepticism to the emergency declaration. According to one protester:
"The people [in Port Said] feel that there was a complete state of collapse especially after riots today, particularly with tear gas being fired into the funerals."
Clashes in several cities are still continuing, as of this writing on Sunday evening ET. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera
Left-wing rioters praised Benito Mussolini in the 1930s, claiming that "He may be a dictator, but he kept the trains running on time." However, since he allied himself and Germany with Hitler in World War II, he's been condemned by history as a fascist evil. But now, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s former prime minister, has triggered outrage with comments defending Mussolini at, of all places, a ceremony commemorating victims of the Nazi Holocaust:
"It's difficult now to put yourself in the shoes of people who were making decisions at that time.Obviously the government of that time, out of fear that German power might lead to complete victory, preferred to ally itself with Hitler's Germany rather than opposing it. As part of this alliance, there were impositions, including combatting and exterminating Jews. The racial laws were the worst fault of Mussolini as a leader, who in so many other ways did well."
Berlusconi is campaigning for next month's election at the head of a coalition that includes far-right politicians whose roots go back to Italy's old fascist party. After his remarks, a left-wing politician called Berlusconi "a disgrace to Italy." Al-Jazeera
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jan-13 World View -- China will impose trade sanctions on North Korea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Jan-2013)
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Venezuela's Hugo Chavez runs the government from Cuba
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An Egyptian court sentenced 21 people to death on Saturday for participating in a riot in Port Said on February 2 of last year, where 74 young people were killed, and over 1,000 injured at a football (soccer) match. ( "3-Feb-12 World View -- Suspicions grow of planned massacre at soccer game in Egypt") There were plenty of riot police present at the game, but video shows that they allowed the violence to continue without interference, and they may even have aided the violence by blocking the escape route of the victims. The attackers were mostly fans of the home team, the al-Masry football club, while the victims were fans of the visiting team, Cairo's Al-Ahly football club, a group that had actively taken part in the Tahrir Square protests during 2011, and the suspicion is widespread that police were responsible for the violence, in order to get revenge against the Al-Ahly team. The violence infuriated the people of Cairo, who blamed the deaths on the police. AFP
On Saturday, 30 more protesters were killed by police in violent rioting in Port Said by Egyptians infuriated by the verdict. Most of those sentenced to death were supporters of the al-Masry team, and so they lived in the Port Said area. Egyptians from the region were infuriated not only because of the harsh death sentences, but also because no one from the Egypt's police was held to account for the deaths. Al-Ahram (Cairo)
The killings on Saturday followed nine killings by police during protests in Suez on Friday commemorating the two-year anniversary of the beginning of the Egyptian Revolution that deposed Hosni Mubarak. Forensic examination on Saturday of the victims shows that they were shot by live ammunition at close range, sometimes from behind. Al-Ahram (Cairo)
With almost 40 people killed in two days, Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi was forced to cancel a scheduled trip to Ethiopia nad meet with top generals to discuss the violence. When Morsi was first elected in June, in the first free and fair presidential elections in Egypt's history, he originally had a high approval rating. Then, in November, he was given credit for arranging a cease-fire in the brief war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. But he lost it all two days later, when he "appointed himself Pharaoh of Egypt" by issuing a decree granting himself dictatorial powers not subject to review by the courts or appeal. He used these powers to enable Egypt's new constitution to be written entirely by Muslim Brotherhood Islamists and al-Nour Salafists. Tensions have been growing between the young liberals and secularists who launched the revolution two years ago versus the Islamist conservatives who are now in almost complete control of the government. The new violence in Port Said may be a sign that the fault lines in this conflict may even have geographical overtones, pitting big cities like Cairo versus rural areas. The National (UAE)
I've pointed this out several times in the past, but it's worth pointing out again: What's developing in Egypt is not Egypt versus Israel, nor Muslim Brotherhood versus Israel. Except for some isolated incidents, there have been no protesters screaming "Death to Israel!" or "Death to America!" as happens in Ramallah and Gaza City.
Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez, still in Cuba for cancer treatment, is having difficulty breathing, according to government officials who have just returned to Caracas from Havana. Vice-President Nicolás Maduro says that "Chávez is clinging to life," but added that he is "climbing the hill." But Maduro insists that Chávez is running Venezuela's government from Havana, that he's signed a number of decisions related to Venezuela's gold reserves, and that Chávez asked him to "send a message of encouragement to private entrepreneurs." El Universal (Caracas) and El Universal (Caracas)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jan-13 World View -- Egypt in crisis after two days of violent clashes thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Jan-2013)
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Russia blames the West for fomenting jihadist 'blowback'
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A highly significant and highly fascinating English language editorial appeared Friday in China's Global Times, an organ of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing (emphasis mine):
"Not all Peninsula issues China’s problemIn response to UN Security Council Resolution 2087 which was approved on Wednesday, North Korea vowed that it will carry out a "high-level" nuclear test. This may not be mere angry words, because South Korea says preparation for North Korea's new nuclear test is already in progress.
Wednesday's UN resolution condemned North Korea's rocket launch in December and expanded existing sanctions. After putting a lot of effort into amendments for the draft resolution, China also voted for it.
It seems that North Korea does not appreciate China's efforts. It criticized China without explicitly naming it in its statement yesterday: "Those big countries, which are obliged to take the lead in building a fair world order, are abandoning without hesitation even elementary principles, under the influence of the US' arbitrary and high-handed practices, and failing to come to their senses."
China has a dilemma: We are further away from the goal of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and there's no possible way for us to search for a diplomatic balance between North Korea and South Korea, Japan and the US.
China should be more relaxed and reduce our expectations on the effect of our strategies toward the peninsula. We should have a pragmatic attitude to deal with the problems and pursue the optimal ratio between our investment of resources and strategic gains.
China can neither take one side of the peninsula conflict like the US and Japan nor dream of staying aloof. We should readily accept that China is involved and may offend one side or both sides.
China's role and position are clear when discussing North Korea issue in the UN Security Council. If North Korea engages in further nuclear tests, China will not hesitate to reduce its assistance to North Korea. If the US, Japan and South Korea promote extreme UN sanctions on North Korea, China will resolutely stop them and force them to amend these draft resolutions.
Just let North Korea be "angry." We can't sit by and do nothing just because we are worried it might impact the Sino-North Korean relationship. Just let the US, Japan and South Korea grumble about China. We have no obligation to soothe their feelings.
Due to China's strength, as long as our attitude is resolute, the situation will be gradually influenced by our principles and our insistence.
China is a power adjacent to the Korean Peninsula. This means that our strategic interests are complex and diverse. China should maintain our national interest to the full extent instead of any other side's interests.
China hopes for a stable peninsula, but it's not the end of the world if there's trouble there. This should be the baseline of China's position.
China is doomed to be located in East Asia where the situation is now quite chaotic. But luckily, China is the most powerful among the region's countries, so it will be influenced the least by the situation. China should stay calm."
China has been displaying increasing impatience with its client North Korea, but the new leadership, led by president Xi Jinping, is apparently willing to demonstrate its impatience in a big way.
There's a game of brinksmanship going on here. Is Xi simply bluffing? China does NOT want North Korea to run that nuclear weapon test. The youthful North Korean president Kim Jong-un will look extremely weak if he now DOESN'T run the nuclear weapon test. If he does, Xi has apparently backed himself into a corner, and presumably will be forced to reduce China's assistance. This doesn't mean that all assistance, particularly food aid, will be cut off, but presumably some significant component of the assistance will be affected. Let's all feel some Schadenfreude for the Chinese. This may even turn out to be fun to watch. Global Times
Russia's president Vladimir Putin has lashed out at the West in recent days for pursuing what they regard as naive and incoherent Middle East policies. The reasoning is that the West has supported movements to oppose dictators in Libya and Syria, and doing that has energized Sunni Muslim jihadist groups.
According to Putin:
"The Syrian conflict has been raging for almost two years now. Upheaval in Libya, accompanied by the uncontrolled spread of weapons, contributed to the deterioration of the situation in Mali. The tragic consequences of these events led to a terrorist attack in Algeria which took the lives of civilians, including foreigners"
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov added the following:
"Those whom the French and Africans are fighting now in Mali are the same people who ... our Western partners armed so that they would overthrow the Gaddafi regime [in Libya]."
With Russia heading deep into a generational Crisis era, the fault line between Caucasian Muslims and ethnic Russians has been growing exponentially in recent years, and Putin is implying that the West is at fault because of Syria and Libya. According to one Russian analyst:
"Russia is on the frontier, we are in jihad territory. Our own fringes, the northern Caucasus, Central Asia, and even the central Volga region are threatened. That's why we're very clear about who the enemy is. ... We know this, and you would think that after 9/11 and other events that our American and European colleagues would have some clarity about it, too. Yet they always seem ready to play with fire, and to use militant jihadists against Russia and its national interests – as they did in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Libya, and Syria."
The Russia criticism of the West even goes back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. But instead of blaming themselves for energizing the Sunni Muslim jihadists there, and creating the al-Qaeda and the Taliban, they blame the West for supplying weapons to those fighting the Soviets (who, at that time, formed an "Evil Empire" that was our enemy).
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is very little to support the Russian analysis. There have been huge, genocidal wars between the Orthodox Christian civilization and the Muslim civilization for centuries, and the West didn't cause those wars. Furthermore, if I had to pick just one event that energized the Sunni Muslim jihadists from Indonesia to the Maghreb and up to the Caucasus, that event would be Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war (a regional Shia/Sunni war) of the 1980s.
In the West, we focus on World War II as the most significant war of the 20th century, but for most Muslim countries that was just another war -- brutal and bloody like all wars, but not a generational Crisis war. The Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war shook the entire Muslim world, and particularly inspired Osama bin Laden to start his jihadist movement to duplicate Iran's revolution, which was a victory for Shia Muslims, with a similar revolution for a Sunni al-Qaeda state. Al-Qaeda and its splinter groups have tried this in Iraq, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, and now in Mali, and they've failed every time so far. Meanwhile, the Arab Spring, which was ALSO not caused by the West, is destabilizing the entire Mideast, which is trending towards a much larger Sunni/Shia war.
Within Russia itself, the growing fault line is between the (Orthodox Christian) ethnic Russians and the (Sunni Muslim) ethnic groups in the Caucasus. However, the mutual xenophobia is not limited to the Caucasus. Violence between Russians and Caucasians has spread across the country, particularly in Moscow and Petersburg, as we've reported in the past. It's affected the army in that Russians and Caucasians can no longer serve together. Even the Caucasus itself is becoming devoid of Russians. There has been a massive outflow of ethnic Russians from the Caucasus since 1991, when the Chechen leadership declared a so-called "Islamic state," and conducted a targeted anti-Russian policy. As a result, the number of Russians in Chechnya went from 220 thousand in 1991 to just 25 thousand in 1999, and the outflow has continued since then.
It's very convenient for Vladimir Putin to blame the West for a Sunni Muslim vs Orthodox Christian fault line that's existed for centuries. But as Russia's generational Crisis era heads towards a full-scale war, repeating the genocides of past centuries, Putin is going to have to leave his fantasy bubble world and figure out how to save Russia. CS Monitor and Newsland (Trans) (Russia) and Sova Center (Russia)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jan-13 World View -- China threatens to cut off aid to North Korea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Jan-2013)
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Britain, Germany, Netherlands say: 'Leave Benghazi immediately'
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An English-language statement issued by the National Defense Commission, broadcast by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of North Korea or DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea):
"We will carry out further tests involving a variety of satellites and long-range rockets as well as a high-level nuclear test. And we make it clear that all these tests will target the U.S., the sworn enemy of the people.We do not hide that a variety of satellites and long-range rockets which will be launched by the DPRK one after another and a nuclear test of higher level which will be carried out by it in the upcoming all-out action, a new phase of the anti-U.S. struggle that has lasted century after century, will target against the U.S., the sworn enemy of the Korean people.
The new U.N. Security Council resolution is proof that hostile U.S. policies toward North Korea have entered a more dangerous stage. The only way to draw a conclusion with the U.S. is not through dialogue but through weapons."
The DPRK was reacting to the unanimous censure, by the United Nations Security Council earlier this week, to North Korea's December 12 long-range missile test. At the time, they insisted that the test was for peaceful purposes only, to put satellites into orbit. The new statement is an admission that they were lying, which is no surprise to anyone. Dong-a Ilbo (Seoul) and Yonhap Ilbo (Seoul)
According to a North Korean source accessed by South Korea, North Korea has already finished preparations for a new nuclear test:
"North Korea has dug tunnels for its third nuclear test at its test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamkyong Province, and completed sealing the tunnels with concrete after installing test equipment and connecting cables for observation."
The South Korean military says that the North is ready to conduct the test within several days. Dong-a Ilbo (Seoul)
China voted in favor of the U.N. Security Council resolution censuring North Korea for the long-range missile test, indicating that China is increasingly willing to criticize its client. China's Foreign Ministry called for calm and restraint from all concerned parties:
"It is in the common interests of all parties concerned to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and achieve the denuclearization of the peninsula.(We) hope all concerned parties will keep calm and act in a cautious and prudent way, as well as refrain from taking any action that could lead to the progressive escalation of tensions."
North Korea's new young generation dictator, Kim Jong-un, has now had a year to decide what he wants to do, and it appears that he's decided that everything that any Western leaders or any Chinese leaders tell him is completely full of crap. VOA and China Daily (Beijing)
Britain, Germany and the Netherlands have been told to leave Benghazi, Libya, immediately because of an unnamed "specific, imminent threat" to Westerners. According to Britain's Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO):
"We are aware of a specific, imminent threat to Westerners in Benghazi. We advise against all travel to Benghazi and urge any British nationals who are there against our advice to leave immediately.We advise against all but essential travel to Tripoli .... We advise against all travel to all other areas of Libya, including Benghazi.
There is a high threat from terrorism. Attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places frequented by expatriates and foreign travelers. ... There is a threat of kidnapping in Libya.
Following French military intervention in Mali, there is a possibility of retaliatory attacks targeting Western interests in the region. We advise vigilance. ... You should avoid any demonstrations or large gatherings of people. If you become aware of any nearby violence you should leave the area immediately.
Violent clashes between armed groups are possible across the country, particularly at night, and even in those places that have previously avoided conflict. These often include the use of heavy weapons."
Libya's government is saying that they were "very surprised" by the announcement, and complained that they weren't even notified about it in advance. BBC and Foreign and Commonwealth Office
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jan-13 World View -- China urges restraint after North Korea nuclear threat thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Jan-2013)
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Emails show evidence of Morgan Stanley fraud in financial crisis
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Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi says that he would have preferred a more "peaceful and developmental" approach to the crisis in Mali than France's military intervention:
"We do not accept at all the military intervention in Mali because it will fuel conflict in the region."
And, he certainly may be correct about that. However, he declared support for Algeria's retaliatory action against Islamist militants who took hundreds of hostages at a natural gas plant, resulting in the deaths of 37 workers. Morsi's statement may strain Egypt's ties with France, but according to one analyst Morsi had no choice, as the rift between secular and liberal forces in Egypt versus the Islamist government is widening. ""Coming down on the side of a European military power against an 'Islamist' regime — however brutal — could put him at risk of losing his political base." Global Post and France 24
For the first time since 2004, the polio virus has been found in Cairo, after it had been thought to be eradicated throughout Egypt. The World Health Organization (WHO) discovered the virus in sewage water found in parts of Cairo, though no cases of human infection have been reported so far. The strain of the virus found in Cairo is identical to a strain found in Pakistan. Pakistan's vaccination program has been opposed by the Taliban, who claim that it's a secret American plan to sterilize Pakistanis, to prevent the births of more Muslim children. This opposition has increased since the U.S. administration, in the process of bragging about having killed Osama bin Laden, revealed that a phony vaccination program was used to help establish the identity of bin Laden. In December, terrorists murdered nine health workers involved in the vaccination program in Pakistan. Pakistan has ordered the immunization of all children leaving the country, in an attempt to halt the spread abroad. Daily News Egypt and Express Tribune (Islamabad)
An angry Hong Lei, spokesman from China's foreign ministry, blasted the Philippines for referring the dispute with China over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea to the United Nations International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). According to Hong:
"China has consistently opposed the Philippines’ illegal occupation ...“We hope that the relevant country honors its promises, and ... does not take any action to complicate or expand the problem."
China criticizes actions that "complicate or expand" the problem. They'd like to keep things simple. They've stationed the military around the South China Sea, taken over islands that have historically belonged to other countries, announced that they would board and seize foreign ships that enter the South China Sea, and threaten war on an almost daily basis. The Chinese have learned their lessons well from Hitler's Nazi thugs. Philippine Star and Global Times (Beijing)
Britain's prime minister David Cameron finally gave his long-awaited speech on whether he thinks that Britain should remain in the European Union. There is an extremely vocal minority of people in his own party who are demanding that the question be put to a referendum vote. Cameron said that if he were re-elected in the next election, then he would call a referendum vote in 2018. In the meantime, he's demanding that Britain be exempt from certain rules that limit the control of immigration and that forbid any work week longer than 48 hours. However, other European leaders were caustically critical, calling it selfish, ignorant and dangerous. Germany's foreign minister said that "Cherry-picking is not an option." France's foreign minister said that it was as if Britain had joined a football club and then suddenly said "let's play rugby". Most of the criticism of Cameron was centered on the complaint that his speech would worsen the financial crisis by creating greater uncertainty in the financial markets. Reuters
Thanks to a case brought by a Taiwanese bank that lost hundreds of millions of dollars on toxic synthetic subprime mortgage-backed securities sold to them by Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley has been forced to release hundreds of pages of internal documents showing that their employees were well aware that the securities they were selling, typically rated "AAA", were in fact defective and would turn out to be almost worthless. The documents show a pattern of behavior by people across the bank. The toxic securities were packaged as a CDO called "Stack 2006-1," but e-mail messages show that bank employees suggested calling it "Subprime Meltdown," "Hitman," "Nuclear Holocaust," "Mike Tyson's Punchout," and the simple-yet-direct: "Shitbag." Even as early as October 2005, an e-mail message shows that the mortgage loans going into the toxic securities were troubled:
"The real issue is that the loan requests do not make sense. [For example,] a borrower that makes $12K a month as an operation manager of an unknown company — after research on my part I reveal it is a tarot reading house. Compound these issues with the fact that we are seeing what I would call a lot of this type of profile."
The really damning e-mail messages are from early 2007, when it was clear to everyone that the subprime real estate market was collapsing. Instead of ending the sale of these toxic securities, or at least warning investors of the danger, Morgan Stanley bankers doubled down on selling the fraudulent securities to investors, including the Taiwanese bank now suing them.
This is consistent with EXACTLY the point that I've been making for almost five years. Sales of these toxic securities skyrocketed in 2007, when it was becoming clear that the models on which they were based (that assumed that the real estate bubble would continue to grow forever) were catastrophically faulty. This is undeniable circumstantial evidence that the bankers were knowingly committing fraud.
This new collection of evidence from Morgan Stanley proves that this interpretation of the circumstantial evidence was exactly correct. And yet, the Obama administration has adamantly refused to investigate and prosecute the bankers who perpetrated these crimes. Eric Holder's Justice Dept. could easily have subpoenaed these same e-mail messages at any time and brought criminal charges, but they refused to do so because these bankers have been making huge campaign contributions to the Obama campaign. It makes me want to vomit.
I want to address the claim that all these bankers make -- that it was OK to defraud the investors in these toxic securities because they were "sophisticated investors." Just to take one example of what this means, I had a conversation with the CFO of Digimarc Corp. in August 2007, that I've previously written about. ("How Boomers and Generation-Xers brought about the dumbing down of Information Technology (IT)")
That CFO was a "sophisticated investor," but he told me that he kept things simple by only investing in AAA rated securities. We now know that banks like Morgan Stanley colluded with ratings agencies like Moody's to give toxic securities AAA ratings. So the fraud was specifically designed to target these sophisticated investors, who depended on people who turned out to be crooks. Pro Publica
In a move that supports the "Kick the Can Theory," which says that Washington will never do anything but kick the can down the road, same as Greece and Europe, the House of Representatives passed a bill that will raise the debt ceiling for three months, until May (at which time it will undoubtedly be raised again). However, the bill contains a joke: Lawmakers will not get paid unless they pass a budget in the next three months. The reason that this is a complete joke is because even if they stop getting paid for a while, they'll just pass another law to get all their back pay plus interest. It's all a big joke. Ha, ha. The Hill
I really had to chuckle at Hillary Clinton's expressions of outrage at being questioned about the Benghazi coverup, when she angrily said:
"With all due respect, the fact is, we had four dead Americans–was it because of a protest or because of guys out for a walk one night and decided to go kill some Americans? What difference at this point does it make?"
Someone should have reminded her that she served as an advisor to the Democrats on the Senate Watergate coverup committee, and that nobody died at Watergate. Huffington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jan-13 World View -- Furious Chinese spokesman blasts Philippines for seeking arbitration thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Jan-2013)
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U.S. begins transporting French soldiers to Mali
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Senior Colonel Liu Mingfu of China's National Defence University has raised the specter of a nuclear war, and warned Australia not to side with America and Japan. Liu is not an official spokesman for China, but his views are approved. Referring to the dispute between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, Liu said that China was prepared to fight "to the death":
"America is the global tiger and Japan is Asia's wolf and both are now madly biting China. Of all the animals, Chinese people hate the wolf the most.If this Japanese wolf again attacks America's Pearl Harbor or Australia's Darwin, how do you know it wouldn't receive another nuclear bomb? The world would hail if Japan receives such a blow.
I don't want to mention China here, as it is sensitive. ...
[Australia should play the role of a] kind-hearted lamb. ''Australia should never play the jackal for the tiger or dance with the wolf."
See also: "19-Jan-13 World View -- China's directive to the People's Liberation Army: Get Ready for War"
The Age (Australia) and International Business Times (Australia)
The Philippines took a desperate legal step on Tuesday, formally notifying China that it's seeking international arbitration under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China has used its military to block Philippines' access to the Scarborough Shoal, which is part of Philippines exclusive economic zone (EEZ) under UNCLOS. China has made it clear that they are going to use their military power to take control of the entire South China Sea, including several regions that have historically belonged to other countries, following a policy similar to Hitler's "Lebensraum" policy. They've announced that they intend to begin boarding and seizing control of other countries' ships in the South China Sea. At a news conference, Philippines Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said:
"This afternoon, the Philippines has taken the step of bringing China before an arbitral tribunal under ... the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos) in order to achieve a peaceful and durable solution to the dispute over the West Philippine Sea. [Since 1995, the Philippines has exhausted almost] all political and diplomatic avenues for a peaceful negotiated settlement of its maritime dispute with China.On numerous occasions, dating back to 1995, the Philippines has been exchanging views with China to peacefully settle these disputes. [However, up until] this day, a solution is still elusive."
According to one Chinese diplomat, "We are not afraid of UNCLOS. Manila underestimates our knowledge at its peril." Manila Standard and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
Two additional fleets of Chinese marine surveillance ships are carrying out separate patrol missions in the South China Sea. (I assume that these are the fleets that will support China's announced policy of boarding and seizing foreign ships.) China says that it will continue to carry out regular patrols in the East and South China Seas "to secure the nation's maritime rights and interests." Xinhua
U.S. Air Force C-17 transport planes have begun flights from the French base in Istres, France, to Bamako, carrying French troops and equipment. 3,150 French troops will be involved in the Mali operation, code-named "Operation Serval," and the transport missions will operate for several more days, according to the U.S. military's Africa Command, which is based in Stuttgart, Germany. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jan-13 World View -- China warns Australia not to side with America in case of war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Jan-2013)
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Massive espionage malware targeting governments undetected for 5 years
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Completing his most recent 4-month tour of duty as "Captain Wales" in British-controlled Camp Bastion in Helmand province in Afghanistan, Britain's Prince Harry acknowledged that he's killed Taliban insurgents serving as a helicopter pilot, though he won't reveal how many. He said it was sometimes justified to "take a life to save a life. That's what we revolve around, I suppose." Prince Harry, third in line to the British throne, and considered to be the world's most eligible bachelor, has frequently expressed his feelings that he'd rather be in Afghanistan service with his comrades, than back in London living the posh royal life. He presents a problem for the army, however, because it would be a major public relations coup for the Taliban if they succeeded in killing him, and they've expressed their determination to target him in the past. CNN and Daily Mail (London)
The Taliban has claimed responsibility for an 8-hour assault, with suicide bombings and gunfire from automatic rifles, on the the headquarters of the Kabul traffic police in Afghanistan. This was the second major attack in Kabul in less than a week. Last week, six suicide bombers attack the National Directorate of Security, killing two guards. Terrorist violence across Afghanistan has been increasing during the last 12 months, raising doubts about the success of the Afghan security forces after the Nato forces leave. Apparently the Taliban terrorists are changing their strategy as the Nato forces leave, specifically targeting the Afghan security forces. According to a government official, "Honestly speaking, this type of attack, at the start of the year, indicates the coming months are going to be tough." Reuters
Researchers have uncovered an ongoing, large-scale computer espionage network, dubbed Red October, that's targeting hundreds of diplomatic, governmental, and scientific organizations in at least 39 countries, including the Russia, Iran, and the United States. The highly coordinated campaign, has been active since 2007, raising the possibility it has already siphoned up hundreds of terabytes of sensitive information. It uses more than 1,000 distinct modules that have never been seen before to customize attack profiles for each victim. Among other things, components target individual PCs, networking equipment from Cisco Systems, and smartphones from Apple, Microsoft, and Nokia. The main purpose of the campaign is to gather classified information and geopolitical intelligence. Stolen credentials were compiled and used later when the attackers needed to guess secret phrases in other locations. Although China is thought to be the perpetrator, there's no evidence to link the attack to China or to any other particular nation-state. Ars Technica
Because it's too dangerous now to fly into Damascus airport, Russia is sending evacuation planes to Beirut, Lebanon, to evacuate Russians who wish to return to Russia. There are some 150 people, mainly women and children, waiting for the planes to arrive. Russia has contingency plans to evacuate thousands of its nationals from Syria, using planes and sea vessels. Most are Russian women married to Syrians. The move is considered to be one more sign that Russia is having increasing doubts about Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's ability to stay in power. Daily Star (Beirut)
"Everything is changing. People are taking the comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke." -- Will Rogers
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jan-13 World View -- Coordinated suicide attack in Kabul, Afghanistan, part of increasing violence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Jan-2013)
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How would the U.S. react to a Chinese invasion of a neighbor?
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My recent article "China's directive to the People's Liberation Army: Get Ready for War" was posted in several places and drew hundreds of questions and comments. In this article, I'm going to provide some responses.
I quoted Dai Xu, a Chinese Air Force Colonel, as advocating a short decisive war against one of China's neighbors:
"Since we have decided that the U.S. is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real.This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia. We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel."
One web site reader wrote:
"China might alternatively pick Vietnam as the dog to be killed. Vietnam does not have a defense pact with the United States and the U.S. might seek to provide only indirect assistance to Vietnam. Vietnam might also refuse to surrender and be impossible to pacify in a "quick war".China could find itself at war with a minor power and not with any major power for a number of years."
Another wrote:
"If China was going to war with anyone (and I do not wish war on anyone) I'd prefer they attack Vietnam. This wouldn't suck the Western Allies in and it could teach China a good lesson of being bled dry by a tenacious enemy. This would be best case IMO outside of peace of course."
This discussion highlighted something that hadn't occurred to me before: That an attack on Vietnam is the "logical" choice for China. From China's point of view, there would be several advantages:
(The last reason, of course, is sheer fantasy, but it's possible that Chinese hawks believe it.)
China invaded Vietnam in 1979 in a war where China was repulsed quickly. China made some serious mistakes in that war. Those mistakes would not be repeated in this crisis era.
It's possible that a Chinese invasion of Vietnam would lead to President Obama's "Neville Chamberlain moment." But, as in that case, any later aggressive action by China would lead to full-scale war. Time Magazine
Some Chinese military planners believe that Americans will "run like rabbits" and not honor its mutual defense treaties, if China invaded one of its neighbors. A lot of commenters believe the same thing:
"The only reason the Chinese might think "Americans will run like rabbits" is because of this administration's recent weak performance in the Middle East, and because of the tenuous U.S. (and Western) economy (both White House admins are to blame here).Whatever one thinks about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is clear to all foreign entities that America shows neither a principled and goal oriented interaction nor a policy engaged from a position of confidence (exerted quietly or visibly)."
I expressed the opinion that "President Obama would not have any choice if Congress declared war, which might happen within hours of any Chinese attack." One reader responded:
"First, yes he would. He could dither on the deployments the way France and the U.K. did after Hitler seized Bohemia and Moravia and declared Slovakia a Protectorate, then dithered some more when Hitler declared war on Poland, launching a mighty Sitzkrieg offensive in the Pacific while saving the Blitzkrieg for the media and stump circuit.In the face of that, all Congress could do is impeach him, even while an attempt is made to repeal the 22nd Amendment so he can do nothing for even more [years].
Second, what if a declaration of war passes the House but not the Senate? Never mind the Chamberlain in the White House, Harry Reid could play his own version of Neville, and no war resolution would ever reach the floor of the Senate.
What exactly would happen if Congress "couldn't" decide?"
Dithering would be a high-risk political strategy for the President and a Democratic Senate. When Neville Chamberlain promised "Peace in our time" after meeting with Hitler, he was doing something that seemed perfectly reasonable on that day. And yet, Chamberlain has been damned by history as the man who appeased Adolf Hitler. President Obama would risk being damned as a modern day Neville Chamberlain who appeased the Chinese.
There were widely varied opinions about China's military strength:
"A nuclear holocaust might be a tad bit premature. We're not really sure what China's nuclear capability is, specifically their ability to hit the US. Couple of points:Until the 1990s, their primary nuclear target was the Soviet Union. China is notorious for stockpiling archaic military equipment, even if it doesn't work.
Even if Obama's military and nuclear cuts hit before any war with China, our nuclear capability far exceeds theirs. The Chinese government knows this.
China probably has around 500 - 600 nuclear weapons and enough materials to build another 400 over a few years. But the US is not China's only target. Some of those weapons have to be kept aimed at India and Russia, both nuclear powers. Many of China's warheads are mounted on train-track based launchers that are pointed north, northwest. China would be risking a Russian retaliatory strike by launching those warheads.
Many, as high as 20%, of China's warheads are gravity bombs designed to be dropped by late WWII style bombers.
China does not have force projection capabilities. They have one carrier in partial service and with a small air wing. They have no long range amphibious assault ships. They cannot establish a perimeter line, like the Japanese, that could keep US forces away from mainland China. And China does not have the nuclear ability to knock the US out of any fight. They can position diesel electric subs at choke points in an attempt to ambush US carrier groups. That does nothing about the USAF and China would be gambling their entire sub force.
A far more realistic scenario would be a Chinese invasion of easier targets in the region. Picture The Philippines, Okinawa, and/or Taiwan. If the US intervened, China would use a limited number of nuclear weapons on nations that could provide the US with military bases, specifically Japan. Hitting Japan would have the bonus of hitting the US economy. China will be betting on the US not retaliating with nuclear weapons if the US is not the target. China would then fortify their gains and simply wait for the US to go bankrupt. Once that happens, China would be free to begin expanding its control throughout the remainder of South East Asia and the Pacific unopposed."
Another reader pointed out:
"Based on what we know, the DF21 "carrier killer" missile shown in the photo has never been tested on seaborne targets."
However, one more reader said that China's military capabilities are far more advanced than we realize:
"What most people don't realize is that most of China's infrastructure is dual-use civilian/military. That is, every train, plane, truck, railway, road, you name it, is designed for military use, as well as civilian use. For example, in a matter of weeks, all of China's shipping -ALL of it- can literally be plugged into the military command and control system and converted for military use. This incluse 'plug and play' cargo, missile and weapons systems for their cargo ships and civilian aircraft.In short, they held an arms race...and no one else showed up.
What set them off was America's victory in the first gulf war. They paid attention and began to redesign their entire military and civilian infrastructure. They also reworked their military philosophy. For over twenty years, they've been preparing to fight America in a war.
A probable naval scenario: Imagine a cargo ship loaded with disposable anti-ship missile platforms. Precision guided missiles. Thousands of them. Imagine a US navy task force on the receiving end of five thousand precision guided missiles."
China is known to be planning "asymmetric warfare," attacking America's weak points by unconventional means. According to one reader:
"Our key vulnerability is cyberattack. We're still not doing as much as we should to protect ourselves, but we're finally taking action and it looks like some of our leaders are realizing how dangerous it is. That'll be the primary method to take down our capabilities. I would say it would set us back at least a couple months, probably longer than that. Their optimum time to strike in that theater would be in the near future.Our satellites will be the next mode of crippling us. I read in the 2007 about their anti-satellite and I'd bet that by now they've got hundreds of anti-satellite missiles ready for use. It won't take more than a day or two."
See also "14-Oct-12 World View -- Huawei scandal exposes potential 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor' from China" from last year.
There were some skeptical remarks, like:
"With the coming soft or hard landing in China's economy, using war with a small neighbor, is a sure fire way to divert the attention of the common person. Look at Argentina did during the Falkland Island war and ready to do it again. Only a mistake or believing their own public relations spin will start a war between the US and PRC."
However, the most skeptical remark of all was simply:
"This is a completely uninformed and ridiculous article."
I knew I would get this kind of criticism, and that's why I put in links to several Chinese and American sources, so that readers could verify the information for themselves. However, I would add that comments like this usually come from someone who couldn't even find China on a map, let alone have a clue what's going on in the world.
When I was growing up in the 1950s, my school teachers mocked and ridiculed two sets of people in the 1930s: The ones who, like Herbert Hoover, believed that "prosperity was just around the corner," even though the Depression kept worsening, and the ones who ignored the dangers in Europe and simply took "Peace in our time" for granted. When I was in school, I never understood how so many people could be so obviously wrong. Now that the same thing is happening today, I realize that there are many people who simply can't deal with the anxiety, and are willing to believe almost anything.
I've been writing about the coming war with China for almost ten years now. What has been apparent all along is that China isn't even bothering to hide their intentions. It's not like Russia, for example, where Vladimir Putin may bash and scorn the West, but the days of "We will bury you" are long gone.
But the Chinese vocally threaten war somewhere almost on a daily basis. They have a very different world view that we have. In 2007, I quoted Sha Zukang, the Chinese U.N. ambassador, who said, "one INCH of the territory is more valuable than the LIVES of our people." With 1.5 billion people, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) almost has no choice but to view people as interchangeable and expendable cogs in a massive wheel of agriculture and industry. China has made this clear repeatedly. I believe that it was Sun Tzu in "The Art of War" who said that in a war the side with the advantage is the side that isn't afraid to die, and the Chinese aren't afraid to allow millions of their people die if that's the way to achieve victory.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jan-13 World View -- Discussion of China's directive to 'Get Ready for War' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Jan-2013)
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Federal Reserve officials were caught by surprise by financial crisis
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Algerian troops ended the four-day siege by Islamist terrorists at a natural gas complex in the Sahara with a no-mercy, no-negotiation assault that killed the seven remaining foreign hostages, along with all the remaining hostage takers. Algeria's interior ministry said that 107 foreign hostages and 685 Algerian hostages had survived, but there are still people unaccounted for, including Americans, Britons, Norwegians and French, and many people are fearing the worst. At least 15 unidentified burned bodies were found at the plant. Some Western governments have expressed anger that they weren't even notified before the Algerians went ahead with the initial assault, risking the lives of the hostages, but the Algerians feared that any delay would make matters worse. Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is warning China not to take "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration" of the Sankaku/Diaoyu islands. If China does take any action, then presumably she or her successor will issue another warning. As we've reported, ( "19-Jan-13 World View -- China's directive to the People's Liberation Army: Get Ready for War"), Chinese military officials believe that "the U.S. is bluffing in the East China Sea," and that Americans will "run like rabbits" if there's a clash. Japan Times
The transcripts of Federal Reserve meetings from 2007 have just been released, and they indicate that Federal Reserve officials, from chairman Ben Bernanke on down, were completely clueless about the coming financial crisis. One Fed official, then-San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen, raised the alarm about the housing bubble in January, but she was ignored and backed down later in the year. As I've said many times, mainstream economists did not predict and can't explain the 1990s tech bubble, the real estate bubble, the 2007 financial crisis, or anything that's happening today, and they don't have the vaguest clue what's going to happen next year.
I still can't get used to this. It was perfectly obvious to me by 2004 that there was a housing bubble and a stock market bubble. It was also obvious to Alan Greenspan, who gave some alarming speeches on the subject in 2005. (See "Ben S. Bernanke: The man without agony" from 2005.) And I'm not blessed with any special powers, but I do understand the Law of Mean Reversion, which is taught in Economics 1.01, and when you apply the Law of Mean Reversion, you could see well before 2007 that there was a housing bubble, a stock market bubble and a credit bubble, and that there was going to be a crash. So I was able to apply Economics 1.01 and predict what was going to happen, but Ben Bernanke and the gang at the Fed were totally unable to do the same thing.
These are the same people that are running the Fed today. They still don't have a clue what's going on. As I wrote in "1-Jan-13 World View -- 2013 Forecast: Financial Crisis and China Threat", the S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio index (also called "valuations") has been well above average since 1995, and by the Law of Mean Reversion, stocks will at some point fall sharply, to the Dow 3000 level or lower, and stay there until the 2020s. Bloomberg and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jan-13 World View -- Algeria ends four-day terrorist siege with a no-mercy assault thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Jan-2013)
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China's historic mistake
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China's General Staff Headquarters has issued a harsh directive on Wednesday to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for war:
"In 2013, the goal set for the entire army and the People's Armed Police force is to bolster their capabilities to fight and their ability to win a war … to be well-prepared for a war by subjecting the army to hard and rigorous training on an actual combat basis."
Although past directives have directed soldiers to be prepared in case of war, this year's directive, for the first time, uses the Chinese word "dazhang," which means "fighting war," and uses it 10 times in the 1000 word directive.
Last month ( "2-Dec-12 World View -- China's neighbors express alarm over militant new South China Sea policy"), China However, China has announced plans to board and seize foreign ships in the South China Sea starting in 2013, and has been conducting naval drills with warships in preparation.
While the official directive does not mention Japan, various commentaries makes clear that Japan is the would-be adversary. VOA and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and China Military Online (Beijing) and People's Daily Online / Military (Beijing)
China's military budget has been increasing exponentially for years, as I and others have reported, and this year it's finally paying off, as China's military is deploying a large number of new warships, tanks, missiles, submarines and strike aircraft, much of it in preparation for full-scale war with the United States. These weapons include hundreds (and perhaps thousands) of mobile, nuclear ballistic missiles targeting American cities, and newly developed missiles capable of striking and disabling American aircraft carriers. For the first time in its modern history, China has the firepower to contest control of disputed territory far from its coastal waters.
Flush with pride and confidence, senior officers in China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) are using increasingly hawkish and nationalistic rhetoric when discussing issues related to Japan or the United States. Some of these officers call for "short, sharp wars" to assert China's sovereignty, or to "strike first", "prepare for conflict" or "kill a chicken to scare the monkeys."
The United States has mutual defense treaties with Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and a number of other countries. The purpose of those treaties, signed after WW II, was to discourage anyone from starting a new war, since anyone fighting a war with one of these countries would automatically have a war with the United States as well.
Dai Xu, a Chinese Air Force Colonel, is arguing for a short, decisive war with one of China's neighbors -- Vietnam, the Philippines, or Japan, in order to establish sovereignty over the Pacific region without risking war with the United States. This is the "kill a chicken to scare the monkeys" philosophy. According to this theory, America will NOT honor its mutual defense agreements with any of these countries, because the U.S. will not want to risk having its cities destroyed by Chinese ballistic missiles. He points to China's 1962 border clash with India, which China won decisively, leading to decades of peace.
"Since we have decided that the U.S. is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real.This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia. We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel."
As one Chinese analyst put it, the Americans will "run like rabbits." Another one said, "If there is a clash in the South China Sea, the possibility that foreign countries would intervene is low, and any conflict would not last long." Defense News (Washington) and Reuters
Anyone who understands even a little generational theory can quickly understand that China is making a historic mistake that will be a disaster for everyone.
China's 1962 border clash with India did not lead to a wider war, because the countries were in a generational Awakening era, with both countries being run by survivors of World War II and, respectively, Mao's Communist Revolution civil war and the bloody Hindu/Muslim war that followed Partition. Each of these wars was extremely brutal, creating tens or hundreds of thousands of casualties and refugees, and no one who survived either of those wars would ever allow it to happen again.
Today, China and India and America are in generational Crisis eras. The survivors of World War II are all gone. Today's leaders have had an easy life where their worst crisis was a sex scandal. They have no personal memory of the horrors of WW II, and the Gen-Xers think that any older generation person who even talks about it is completely full of crap.
The Chinese, as well as many Americans, believe that President Obama would not strike back if China launched one of these "short, sharp wars" against one of its neighbors. Obama, according to this view, would be like Neville Chamberlain after Hitler attacked Czechoslovakia.
This view overlooks the extreme nationalism of a generational Crisis era. President Obama would not have any choice if Congress declared war, which might happen within hours of any Chinese attack.
This view also overlooks the hard lesson that came out of the Neville Chamberlain episode. Britain excused Germany's attack on Czechoslovakia, but also warned that any further aggression would lead to war. So Obama may have his Neville Chamberlain moment, but it would only delay war.
China today is giddy with military power to the point of mass hysteria, and way overconfident. They're ready for war, and they're anxious to go to war. They have a military strategy of attacking America's weak points that they believe will lead them to a quick victory, because America won't risk having its cities attacked.
Nothing can be further from the truth. Generational Dynamics predicts that when China makes its move, and that day seems very close, then the war won't end until every nuclear weapon on all sides has been launched against some enemy's targets. By the end of the war, there will be some 3 billion deaths, leaving 4 billion or so survivors to carry on and try to rebuild the world.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jan-13 World View -- China's directive to the People's Liberation Army: Get Ready for War thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Jan-2013)
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Greece concerned about outbreak of violence
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Because of the growing crisis in Algeria, Britain's prime minister David Cameron has canceled a much anticipated speech he was to give on Friday in Brussels on the question of Britain's continued membership in the European Union. Since the Algerian natural gas complex was mostly operated by British Petroleum, it was a major crisis in Britain. According to Cameron:
"We face a very bad situation at this BP gas compound in Algeria. A number of British citizens have been taken hostage; already we know of one that has died. The Algerian armed forces have now attacked this compound. It is a very dangerous, very uncertain, very fluid situation."We have to prepare ourselves for the possibility of bad news ahead. Cobra [crisis group] officials here are working around the clock to do everything we can to keep in contact with the families."
British officials have been expressing annoyance that Algeria when ahead with the bloody rescue mission without giving advance notice to Britain, or asking for help.
Although the speech on EU membership was canceled, Cameron is expected to demand some changes in EU governance as a condition for remaining. These include giving Britain veto power over EU laws that affect British financial issues, and greater ability to control illegal immigration. Guardian (London) and Spiegel
Algerian forces stormed the "Ain Amenas" natural gas complex on Thursday, freeing hundreds of hostages, mostly Algerian workers, being held by al-Qaeda linked terrorists. But 30 of the hostages, including some Americans, were killed, along with at 11 of the terrorist militia members.
Algeria had previously indicated that it wanted to stay completely out of the Mali war, but then permitted the France's war planes to overfly Algeria to reach Mali. The terrorists used this fact to justify their attack on the natural gas complex.
The terrorist attack on the natural gas complex exposes major vulnerabilities for Algeria. Europe is dependent on large shipments of natural gas from Algeria, and Algeria's economy is dependent on the income from those shipments. The terrorists could have blown up the natural gas complex but, according to some analysts, chose simply to make the point that they can still do that at any time in the future. Thus, this crisis raises questions over whether Algeria will be able to reliably continue to supply energy to Europe.
This attack may also force Algeria to take a more active part in the Mali war, for its own self-defense. That would broaden the war even further into a regional war. Reuters and Time
It's only been four days since France startled the world by unexpectedly challenging al-Qaeda linked terrorist groups on two different fronts in Africa. ( "14-Jan-13 World View -- France on terror alert after challenging al-Qaeda on two fronts") The hostage rescue mission in Somalia was a disastrous failure. And in Mali, a French plan to train Mali's army has turned into a full scale invading combat force with thousands of troops. It almost seems that France panicked -- and I'm reminded of 2006, when Israel panicked and launched the Lebanon war within four hours, with no plan and no objectives.
France's intervention in Mali was triggered by the sudden movement of al-Qaeda linked Ansar al-Dine terrorists from northern Mali, where they were already in control, south towards Bamako, the country's capital city. I've heard different commentators express opposite opinions about whether Ansar al-Dine could have successfully captured and taken control of Bamako. One commentator said that Mali's army was so weak that they would have put up no defense whatsoever to an Ansar al-Dine invasion. Another commentator said that the citizens of Bamako would have repelled the invading terrorists because they were ethnically Tuaregs from the north, and the citizens of Bamako in the south didn't like Tuaregs.
We'll never know for sure which side is right, but it's certain that the French believe the first of these opinions -- that the Ansar al-Dine terrorists would have easily captured Bamako, taking control of the entire country in the same way that the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in the late 1990s, turning it into a large base from which terrorist attacks could be launched into Algeria, Europe and North America.
The problem is that, as in the case of the Israeli attack on Hezbollah, the initial dream of an easy victory has already been dashed, and the prospect of a long war is looming. As several commentators have suggested, France may have kicked a hornet's nest. This follows increasing unrest throughout the region, with the "Arab Spring" and the military action in Libya causing numerous decades-old governments to collapse.
Mali's African neighbors are supposed to be helping out by supplying a few thousand troops to fight the rebels in Mali, but those armies are woefully untrained, and lack even basic supplies. They won't even be able to feed themselves unless someone -- quite possibly the United States military -- provides the transport to keep them supplied. Britain and Germany don't really want to get involved, but they don't want to be accused of being poor allies to the French, so they're supplying transport vehicles.
An interesting question is what Russia and China will do in the United Nations Security Council when a new resolution (if any) needs to be voted. They've already supported a previous resolution permitting military intervention by Mali's African neighbors, at a time when any thoughts of such intervention were ephemeral future ghosts in the mist. But now that military action is real, and it's gone well beyond Mali's neighbors, Russia and China may take the same stand they're taking over Syria -- no further military intervention is authorized. There is one big difference, however -- unlike Libya and Syria, Mali's governed requested military intervention. The National (UAE) and Jamestown
With unrest increasing because of austerity measures, authorities in Greece are expressing grave concerns about an outbreak of extremist violence directed against journalists, political entities and government institutions. Gun violence has been increasing, and has been targeting government officials. A group called Militant Minority-Lovers of Lawlessness is claiming credit for 17 firebomb attacks in one week, with targets including political offices of the left and right. Officials are concerned that violence is going to continue to escalate. Unemployment in Greece tops 26 percent and a new tax plan sets a rate of 42 percent on many middle-class families, while increasing the corporate rate from 20 percent to 26 percent. Southeast European Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jan-13 World View -- Did France kick a hornet's nest with military intervention in Mali? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(18-Jan-2013)
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Britain prepares for a new Falklands war
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It's been almost a year since France was advocating military action in Mali ( "13-Jul-12 World View -- France expects the West to deploy military forces in Mali"), and two weeks ago the plan was to take some action possibly next September. Then last week, France was going to train Mali's armed forces and conduct some air strikes, but the operation would be over in a few weeks, and there would be absolutely no French combat troops in Mali.
All that planning is now out the window, after the Islamist militants started moving to take control of the entire country. France sent combat troops into Mali on Wednesday to assault Islamist rebels. The ground troops are thought to be necessary because any delay in following up on the air strikes would allow the rebels to withdraw into the desert, reorganize and mount a counter-offensive. France is getting some support from other countries. Britain and Germany are supply military transport planes, and the U.S. is considering logistical and surveillance support. Reuters
Islamist militants had promised revenge for France's military action in Mali, and on Wednesday they kept their promise by seizing a gas production facility operated by the Algerian state oil company, Sonatrach, along with the British oil company BP and Norway's Statoil. About 20 foreign workers are being held captive, including 7 Americans, are being held hostage. The militants are associated with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
An Algerian analyst that I heard interviewed on the BBC on Wednesday said that Algerian security forces knew that some sort of retaliation was coming, and that an attack on such an obvious target should easily have been prevented. He pointed out that several of the top level officers in AQIM have backgrounds in Algerian intelligence services, and so Algerian security forces may have been complicit in the capture of the gas facility. He said that Algeria was opposed to any kind of Western intervention in Mali from the start, and they were particularly opposed to intervention from France, so this may have been their way of getting revenge. BBC
In 1982, Britain's armed forces recaptured the Falkland Islands in a two-month battle, after an invasion by Argentina to take control of Las Malvinas -- Argentina's name for the Falklands. Argentina has never given up its claims to the islands, and president Cristina de Kirchner has become increasingly strident in those claims. Fearing a new invasion by Argentina, Britain's military planners are actively considering military options to be used, if they become necessary. These options could involve the deployment of the Royal Navy’s Response Task Force Group, a flotilla comprising destroyers, a frigate, a submarine and commandos. However, some analysts outside of Britain are suggesting that if Argentina captured the islands again, as they did in 1982, then Britain would no longer have the military capability to dislodge them. Telegraph (London) and Russia Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jan-13 World View -- Mali conflict explodes into ground war and hostage crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(17-Jan-2013)
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New Kashmir clash kills Pakistani soldier
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A missile strike, presumably from warplanes sent by the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, struck a building at University of Aleppo where hundreds of students were taking exams, killing 82 and injuring 150 more. In a familiar refrain, the al-Assad regime said that the university students were killed not by warplanes but by "the terrorists," its terms for the rebels. Over 60,000 people, almost all civilians, have been killed in the Syrian conflict, mostly through intentional slaughter by the al-Assad regime. BBC
According to a report in Foreign Policy magazine, there is a "compelling case' to believe that al-Assad's military forces used the deadly poison gas Agent 15 in the city of Homs on December 23. Activist and doctors on the ground in Homs have been circulating evidence of the Dec. 23 incident over the past three weeks in an attempt to convince the international community of its veracity. The reports said that the chemical agent was delivered by a tank shell and that the range of symptoms varied based on the victim's proximity to the poison. However, shortly after the report appeared, the White House issued a statement saying that the report "has not been consistent with what we believe to be true about the Syrian chemical weapons program." At one point, the Administration indicated that Syrian use of chemical weapons would bring a military response, but later seemed to back off from the threat, and now merely says that "the regime will be held accountable." Foreign Policy and Reuters
On Wednesday, for the third time in two weeks, there have been military clashes between Pakistani and Indian forces across the Line of Control (LoC) separating the two forces in Kashmir. (See "9-Jan-13 World View -- New fighting between India and Pakistan in Kashmir") This time, a Pakistani soldier was killed, and a Pakistani army statement says that "Indian troops again resorted to ceasefire violation and carried out unprovoked firing this evening at LoC." Concern is rising that tensions are escalating, and some act may trigger a new Kashmir war between India and Pakistan. Dawn (Pakistan) / AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jan-13 World View -- Syria: Missile strike kills 80 students taking exams thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(16-Jan-2013)
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Germany threatens to block a bailout of Cyprus, reviving euro crisis
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Brazil is making a major intervention in Venezuela's government by urging the country to hold elections as quickly as possible if president Hugo Chávez dies:
"We are explicitly saying that if Chávez dies, we would like to see elections as soon as possible. We think that's the best way to ensure a peaceful democratic transition, which is Brazil's main desire."
Chávez has been in Cuba since his fourth cancer surgery on December 11. After previous surgeries, Chávez was shown sitting up or chatting with Fidel Castro. This time, there has been no public sign of Chávez since the operation, leading to speculation that he's close to death.
Brazil is keeping the United States apprised of its efforts, and is hoping to convince Washington to allow it to take the lead in managing a potential leadership transition in Venezuela. Brazilian officials said they fear that any direct U.S. intervention in Venezuelan affairs could backfire. However, a quick election would contradict Chávez's own stated wishes that, on his death, vice-president Nicolas Maduro become president. The Venezuelan opposition fears that Chávez's party will violate the constitution to stay in power if Chávez dies. Reuters
On Saturday, France's foreign minister Laurent Fabius said, "Stopping the terrorists -- it's done." On Sunday, France announced that the military operation would be finished in a matter of weeks. On Monday, Islamist militants counter-attacked and gained control of the town of Diabaly from government forces, just 220 miles from Bamako, Mali's capital. The militants are part of a terrorist group linked to Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). According to an AQIM spokesman:
"France has opened the gates of hell for all the French. She has fallen into a trap which is much more dangerous than Iraq, Afghanistan or Somalia."
AQIM is flush with resources. They made millions of dollars in the last few years collecting ransom payments for kidnapped hostages. And they collected a huge bonanza of sophisticated weapons from unprotected warehouses following the collapse of the Muammar Gaddafi regime in Libya.
France is continuing its bombing mission, and plans to deploy 2,500 troops, to work with a force of 3,300 West African troops to defeat well-armed militants in an area the size of Spain. This is already an increase over the initial announcement, because resistance has been tougher than expected. Many analysts believe that the estimate of "a few weeks" is too optimistic. Reuters
Germany's government does not want to deploy German combat troops in Mali, but they're considering offering logistical, medical and humanitarian support. Germany was embarrassed in 2011 because they never supported France in the military operation in Libya, and they do not want to face that kind of criticism again. However, caution is advised for two reasons:
Defense chiefs in Britain are warning prime minister David Cameron against becoming enmeshed in the Mali mission, pointing out that any action could be drawn-out and require significantly greater resources than have so far been deployed.Spiegel and Independent (London)
Cyprus needs $22.7 billion to bail out its banking system, and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel is demanding harsh reforms before it can be approved. The problem is that Cyprus's banks have been accused as vehicles for laundering billions of dollars by Russian oligarchs who don't want to pay Russia's taxes. Thus, bailing out Cyprus's banks would be bailing out Russia's oligarchs. Many MPs in Germany's Bundestag are refusing to consider a bailout. Without a bailout, the euro crisis will return in full force. Guardian (London) and Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jan-13 World View -- Al-Qaeda rebels in Mali counterattack as France bombs thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Jan-2013)
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Israel reaffirms settlement plan after Palestinian protest action
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Alarmed by the recent rapid advance of the insurgents into southern Mali, France expanded its air strikes deep into Islamist-controlled territory in northern Mali, pounding the Islamist Ansar Dine stronghold of Gao, forcing the insurgents to flee. France's foreign minister Laurent Fabius said that the Islamist rebel advance to the country's capital, Bamako, had been halted:
"Stopping the terrorists -- it's done. Today we started taking care of the terrorists' rear bases."
France has deployed more than 400 troops to Mali for training, but not for combat. Neighboring African countries (Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, Togo and Benin) have pledged an additional 800 troops. The U.S. and Europe will provide logistical support.
France has called a meeting of the United Nations Security Council for 12 noon on Monday "to discuss the situation in Mali." Expatica France and AP
U.S. troops lent "limited technical support" in France's bloody and unsuccessful bid in Somalia on Friday to rescue a French intelligence agent who'd been held hostage for years by al-Shabaab. The rescue attempt was a disaster, as the agent was not rescued, and two French soldiers were killed in a bloody gun battle. CNN
When France's Socialist president François Hollande announced an early withdrawal of France's troops from Afghanistan, it was thought that Hollande would be an anti-war president. And with the worsening French economy, Hollande's popularity was dropping sharply.
But now, all of a sudden, everyone is shocked to see Hollande launch two separate military actions on opposite sides of Africa: One in Mali targeting Ansar Dine, linked to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and another one in Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, linked to Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). With uncertain objectives for the Mali operation and a failure in the Somalia operation, "Hollande's war" may backfire on him politically, just as the Libya war backfired on his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy.
Having attacked two wings of al-Qaeda in one day, Hollande put France on high domestic terror alert on Saturday, fearing a retaliatory terror attack on French soil. AQAP and AQIM issued a joint ultimatum on Saturday threatening to begin killing French hostages until the military missions end immediately. Guardian (London) and Debka
Palestinian activists in the West Bank adopted a new non-violent tactic on Friday by pitching tents and creating a makeshift Palestinian protest camp in the contested "E-1" area of the West Bank. After Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas won United Nations General Assembly approval to create a State of Palestine on November 29, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu retaliated by announcing plans to build 3,000 new settlement homes in the E-1 region. On Saturday, Netanyahu ordered that the protesters be removed from the E-1 camp, and he reaffirmed plans to build settlements in the region. A number of Western nations have condemned Netanyahu's announcement because 3,000 settlements in this region would permanently divide the West Bank in such a way that a two-state solution would become almost impossible. VOA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jan-13 World View -- France on terror alert after challenging al-Qaeda on two fronts thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(14-Jan-2013)
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Pollution spikes to 'dangerous' levels in eastern China
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Shia Muslims across Pakistan are conducting a remarkable demonstration and are lashing out at the government and the army for taking no steps to protect Shia Muslims for sectarian attacks by Sunni Muslim terrorists who target Shias. In Quetta, Shias are refusing to bury the coffins of the 100+ victims of Thursday's horrific suicide bombing that we reported two days ago, even though the bodies are decomposing. Instead, they're using the coffins to blockade the roads in protest, and they claim that they blockade won't end "until we get an assurance that the Pakistan army will take over security and administrative control in Quetta," according to a protest organizer.
The year 2012 was the bloodiest year ever for Shia Muslims targeted by Sunni Muslim terrorists, and with Thursday's horrific attack it seems likely that 2013 will be even worse. Mainstream politicians do nothing to protect Shias from these attacks, possibly because they're afraid of the Sunni terrorists, or because they support the Sunni terrorists, or because they simply don't care how many Shias are slaughtered.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Pakistan and India are headed for a major war re-fighting the bloody 1947 war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition, the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India. For centuries, almost since the time of Mohammed, Hindus and Shia Muslims have been allied against Sunni Muslims in huge genocidal wars. Thus, the increasing bloody terrorist attacks by Sunnis targeting Shias moves Pakistan along the trend line towards that new war. Furthermore, the epicenter of the 1947 was Kashmir, and as we've been reporting, there have been new flare-ups of violence between Muslims and Hindus in Kashmir across the international Line of Control (LoC).
The al-Qaeda linked terror group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi has claimed credit for Thursday's bombing in Quetta. We've written about Lashkar-e-Jhangvi several times in the past -- a terrorist group that targets Shia and Sufi shrines in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and who has been responsible for hundreds of deaths of worshipers. (See "7-Dec-11 World View -- Afghanistan shocked by coordinated suicide attacks targeting Shias") In addition. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is connected to Jundullah, a terrorist group that has perpetrated major attacks on Shia mosques and Revolutionary Guard stations in southeastern Iran. Express Tribune (Pakistan)
In last year's parliamentary elections in Egypt, two Islamist parties, the more moderate Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and the more religiously conservative Salafist al-Nour party together came away with almost 75 per cent of the vote.
Although the two parties are collectively referred to as "Islamist," there are sharp differences between the two. The two parties cooperated brilliantly during the elections to decisively defeat the completely disorganized secular and liberal opposition, but now that the FJP is firmly in control of the government, tensions are growing, and the al-Nour party has announced that it plans to oppose the FJP in future elections. However, the secular and liberal parties have also learned some very hard lessons from the elections, and they're looking for ways to leverage the favorable attitudes of Western nations towards them into greater political power. However, the real battle will be between the Brotherhood and the extreme Salafists, some of whom consider the new constitution, written largely by the Brotherhood, to be in violation of God's laws. Bloomberg and Hudson Institute
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Air pollution in Beijing, China, has spiked past hazardous levels, and air smells like coal dust and car fumes, according to people interviewed. Normal breathable air should contain no more than 100 micrograms per cubic meter of pollution particles. Official China reports put the pollution levels to over 400. But a popular web app provided by the U.S. Embassy in Beijing reports levels above 800. Most of China's increasing energy needs are satisfied by burning coal, with resulting pollution. Last year, the Chinese government demanded that the U.S. Embassy stop publicizing air pollution readings, but they've continued anyway.
All of eastern China is affected by the spike in pollution levels, because the weather has turned cold, and so a lot more coal is being burned. To make matters worse in Beijing, the streets are choked with cars, and pollution emissions are poorly regulated. In 2008, when the Olympics games were held in Beijing, China actually had to shut down all traffic around Beijing, because some of the Olympics teams were threatening not to compete because of the high pollution levels. china.org.cn and BBC
Computer security experts are recommending that users disable Java on their business and personal computers, because of a new surge of hacker attacks that take advantage of a "zero-day vulnerability" in Java software. Java (which is different from Javascript) is one of the tools used by browsers to run complex visual applications, though relatively few web sites actually use it. A "zero-day vulnerability" is one that's been in the Java software for a long time, but was only recently discovered by hackers, and is now being aggressively exploited to hack people's computers. This warning applies to all browsers that run on Windows systems, MAC systems and Linux systems. The recommendation comes because of a surge of exploitations that were discovered only four days ago, on Thursday. It's now expected that the number of exploitations will grow dramatically, since over 400 million computers are subject to the vulnerability. Oracle, the developer of Java, has not announced if or when a patch will be available to repair the vulnerability. Information Week
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jan-13 World View -- Shia families in Quetta Pakistan refuse to bury bombing victims thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Jan-2013)
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U.S. will withdraw from Afghanistan earlier than expected
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The President of Mali went on national TV on Friday and declared a national state of emergency, days after Ansar Dine Islamists took control of the central town of Konna, as we reported yesterday. At the same time, French and Malian soldiers, supported by French air strikes, launched a military attack on the Islamists, recapturing the town. France decided to take unilateral action after becoming impatient with the U.N. Security Council for dithering for months, allowing the Islamists to gain control of larger and larger areas of Mali.
Although France's action was unilateral, France is insisting that its actions are legal because they were responding to a request from the government of Mali. France's president François Hollande also promised that France's military action would fall within the mandate of previous U.N. Security Council resolutions, though it's hard to see how that could be true, since previous resolutions only authorized troops from neighboring African countries.
The original UNSC plan was that Western forces would train the Malian army, and restore democracy in the Malian government in Bamako, after a coup overthrew the elected government a year ago. After that, the government would negotiate with the Islamists who control northern Mali. But it's now become clear that the Islamists have a shot at taking over the entire country before that plan could be put into effect. So the new plan is that the French army and air force will push back the Islamists, and then they can return to the previous plan. Reuters and CS Monitor
The U.S. State Department is refusing to clarify whether the U.S. stands ready to send American forces into Mali:
"Obviously we remain deeply concerned by the recent events in Mali. We echo the international community's condemnation of these recent aggressive acts.I'm not going to get into hypotheticals about what France might need or requests that haven't yet come to us."
But US military officers are closely monitoring the "evolving" situation. AFP
President Barack Obama announced on Friday, at a joint press conference in Washington with Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai, that the U.S. is accelerating its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and that American troops will be moving to a supporting role within the next few months, and complete the withdrawal in 2014. The Administration plans to leave a small American force behind after the withdrawal, but is threatening to leave no troops behind unless the Afghan government grants American forces immunity from prosecution in Afghan courts.
Karzai said that he plans to negotiate a peace process with the Taliban, so that the country will again become a tourist attraction. However, some analysts believe that the rapid withdrawal of American forces will leave allow Taliban insurgents to regain the territory that they lost. According to Said Jawad, the former Afghan ambassador to the U.S.:
"Unfortunately we already see actually in some parts of Afghanistan continued presence of Taliban and relatively sustained activities of al-Qaeda in eastern Afghanistan already."
This highlights the flaw in the "Afghanistanization" of the war, that I've discussed many times. (For complete analysis, see "2-Sep-12 World View -- U.S. decision on Haqqani Network will affect Pakistan relations")
Afghanistan is on the cusp, just entering a generational Awakening era, so a "peace process" would be a plausible plan. The problem is that the Taliban are Islamist Pashtuns, and the Pashtuns are spread across southern Afghanistan tinto Pakistan's northwest. Pakistan is in a generational Crisis era, and the al-Qaeda linked Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan branch of the Taliban, will never agree to a peace treaty. As Jawan points out, terrorist activities are increasing in eastern Afghanistan, on the border with Pakistan, and these activities are expected to increase, particularly as American troops pull back. VOA and AAP
Britain has never been comfortable in the 27-member European Union, and in particular has no intention of joining the 17-member eurozone, choosing instead to retain its own currency, the pound sterling. Although prime minister David Cameron has said that Britain should remain part of the EU, there is a growing wing of his Conservative Party that would prefer Britain to leave, and is demanding a nationwide referendum on the issue. Cameron will soon be giving a major speech to clarify his own position on the EU and the referendum, but so far he's taken the position that he wants Britain to remain in the EU, but only provided that the EU change several policies, including two major ones:
However, Cameron fears that if Britain leaves the EU, then Britain would suffer economically because of damaged business relationships with Europe. Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jan-13 World View -- Acting unilaterally, France sends army and air force into Mali thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Jan-2013)
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Pakistan: Hundreds of casualties in multiple suicide bombings
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Over 100 people were killed and hundreds were injured in a series of suicide bombing attacks in two provinces in Pakistan on Thursday. In Quetta, the capital of Balochistan, a massive blast occurred in a snooker club. When rescue teams, police, and reporters were then killed by three more bombs that exploded when they arrived at the scene of the first blast. Hazari Shia Muslims were targeted by the attacks. It's believed that the perpetrators are from the United Baloch Army, a separatist terror group linked to al-Qaeda. In the Swat Valley in northern Pakistan, another 22 people were killed and 70 injured by a suicide blast attributed to the Taliban. Daily Times (Pakistan)
More Pakistanis are questioning whether the country is serious about fighting terrorism. Shabbir Ahmad Khan, a scholar visiting the U.S., points out that:
"For many people in the country, terrorists are heroes. Despite over 40,000 casualties, there has hardly been any protest or rally against terrorism. At present, the guy who helped the Americans capture the most-wanted terrorist is behind bars and, to this date, we are not clear whether the chief target [Osama bin Laden] in that episode was our friend or foe."
Khan compares the American war on terror to Pakistan's lack of political will:
"After 9/11, the US government established a new ministry of Homeland Security to protect Americans. President George W Bush had a single agenda: the war on terror. He established a high-powered commission to know why and what had happened. The Americans have shown their resilience, determination and political will to resolve this crisis. They waged two wars against Iraq and Afghanistan as part of their pre-emptive action. On the other hand, despite having suffered far more deaths and losses in this war, we moved not a single inch forward; no special force or department was created. The Abbottabad Commission meant to probe into the operation took more than a year in deliberating it and yet, its findings and subsequent remedial action is not known to the public. This is the importance and seriousness we attach to our war against terrorism.US taxpayers allocated trillions of dollars to fight this war. How much money have we spent? What resources have we allocated for this war? Look at our annual budgets of the last 10 years and see the amount we allocated to fight terrorism. We didn’t even properly and honestly use the billions of dollars which we got from our allies. We spent more money equipping our military to fight against India rather than against terrorists, as General (retd) Pervez Musharraf once admitted in a television interview. The military forces of over 40 nations are fighting against terrorists thousands of miles away from their land. And we are reluctant to fight these elements on our own soil. This begs the question: are we serious in eradicating terrorism and do we have a strong political will to do so?"
As we reported, the U.N. / Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, abandoned his neutrality in the Syria conflict, and called for the end of the 40-year reign of the family of president Bashar al-Assad. Syria had been using Brahimi, and his predecessor Kofi Annan, as cover for his massacre of tens of thousands of Syrian civilians, while pretending to negotiate. Brahimi's turnaround meant the ruse would no longer work. Syria's Foreign Ministry reacted harshly on Thursday:
"Syria is shocked by the statements of Lakhdar Brahimi, who has overstepped his mandate and exhibited a flagrant bias for those parties known to be conspiring against Syria and its people."
A new Russian law, endorsed by President Vladimir Putin, that bans Americans from adopting Russian orphans has been postponed for a year. (See "20-Dec-12 World View -- Russia's Duma blocking U.S. adoptions of Russian orphans") The ban on adoptions was in retaliation for American legislation called the "Magnitsky bill," passed in response to an alleged fraudulent scheme uncovered by Sergei Magnitsky, a Russian lawyer, who named names of numerous corrupt Russian tax and law enforcement officials, but who was then thrown into a Russian jail and left to die. Putin supported the ban, famously saying:
"There are lots of places in the world where living standards are higher than they are here.Are we going to send all our children there? Perhaps we should all move there ourselves?"
However, Putin was widely criticized in Russia by opponents who claimed that Putin was using politics to punish innocent orphans, many of whom would suffer and die in Russian orphanages. Putin now says that the agreement between Russia and the U.S. requires giving one year notice before it can be terminated. Russia Today and BBC
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The United Nations Security Council is holding emergency consultations on Thursday evening, after Islamist militants from the al-Qaeda linked terror group Ansar Dine have apparently taken control of the strategic Mali town of Konna on Thursday, after fierce fighting. Ansar Dine has already taken control of two-thirds of Mali in the north, and are extending their control southward towards the capital city Bamako. The Security Council has previously authorized military intervention by neighboring African states, but any action has been effectively postponed until fall, 2013. The sudden fall of Konna has alarmed westerners, especially France, which call for the Security Council meeting. The Security Council issued a statement condemning the capture of Konna, and demanding that the militants give Konna back to the Mali army. And if they don't, then the Security Council is threatening to hold another meeting. Reuters
The official unemployment rate for Greece in October was 26.8%, making it the country with the highest unemployment rate in the euro zone, surpassing the former record holder, Spain, whose unemployment rate was a mere 26.6% in November. Unemployment has been increasing in the southern "Club Med" countries of the eurozone, while it's been decreasing in Germany and other "frugal" northern countries, reinforcing the concept that there are two eurozones, one "high speed" and one "low speed." BBC
Greek police have stepped up efforts to catch illegal immigrants in Athens in recent months, launching a new operation to check the papers of people who look foreign. But tourists have also been picked up in the sweeps - and at least two have been badly beaten. The head of the Hellenic police forces says that anyone who "looks foreign" may be stopped. UN High Commissioner for Refugees is demanding that Greece's police end "racially motivated violent practices." BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jan-13 World View -- U.N. Security Council has emergency meeting over sudden deterioration in Mali thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Jan-2013)
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Hamas teaching Hebrew to young Palestinians
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The nationwide television address given on Sunday by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad was an extraordinary spectacle, calling for opposition fighters to give themselves up and fling themselves on his mercy, and was, according to some commentators, a confirmation of his dangerous state of denial. The U.N. and Arab League envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, who has meticulously maintained a neutral stance up till now, said that the speech was "more sectarian and one-sided" than previous talks and said:
"The time of reforms granted magnanimously from above has passed. People want to have a say in how they are governed and they want to take hold of their own future.In Syria, in particular, I think that what people are saying is that a family ruling for 40 years is a little bit too long.
So the change has to be real. It has to be real, and I think that President Assad could take the lead in responding to the aspiration of his people rather than resisting it."
This rebuke, calling for the end of the 40-year reign of the al-Assad family, represents a new change of direction for the envoy.
Brahimi, as well as his predecessor Kofi Annan, have accomplished less than nothing in resolving the Syrian conflict. They've made things worse by providing a cover for al-Assad, the Russians and the Chinese to continue his bloody slaughter, while pretending to be negotiating. However, whether a change in direction by Brahimi means a change in direction in Syria remains to be seen. Gulf News (Dubai) and Telegraph (London)
Japan's new government, led by Shinzo Abe, is planning to spend an additional $54.3 billion dollars for military equipment to defend the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands from claims by China. The money will be used to acquire unmanned drones to detect incoming Chinese ships and low-flying aircraft, as well as for missile interceptors and F-15 fighter planes. Chinese surveillance ships have been entering the waters surrounding the islands, prompting protests and confrontations by the Chinese. According to one analyst:
Now that Abe is in power – he’s known as a hardline nationalist – and now that Xi JinPing is taking the helm of China for the next 10 years, I think he’s looking to put his stake down as someone who is really a strong defender of China. So I think we’re really going to see an entrenched position on both sides and it looks like there is a new normal of wars and increasing [military] expenditures that are likely for the next several years."
China is responding with plans to build 11 new drone bases along China's coastline, and is testing eight new drone models. According to a U.S. analyst, China "could easily match or outpace US spending on unmanned systems." Russia Today
The Islamic University in Gaza City, the flagship university of Gaza's Hamas government, is offering a one-year diploma course in Hebrew, to produce qualified teachers to introduce Hebrew studies in Gaza high schools, for the first time since the mid-1990s. There is no shortage of Hebrew speakers in Gaza, especially among older generations, who recall a more peaceful time when Palestinians could freely enter Israel. But since the 2000 uprising, and especially since the Israeli withdrawal in 2005, the Gaza Palestinians and Israelis have been almost entirely isolated from one another. Arabic and Hebrew have many similarities, since they're both Semitic tongues. According to one instructor, "[Hebrew] is the language of our enemies. But it is also the language of our neighbors." AP
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Syria's opposition rebels are accusing president Bashar al-Assad of considering Syrian civilians almost worthless, and at the same time celebrating a major victory, after al-Assad freed over 2,130 prisoners, mostly Syrian civilians, in exchange for just 48 Iranians that have been held by the opposition rebels. The 48 Iranians had been captured by Syrian rebels and held hostage in August, and were accused of being Revolutionary Guards providing military help to the al-Assad regime, which Iran has denied. Since the Syrian conflict began early in 2011, al-Assad's regime has slaughtered 60,000 of his own people, almost all innocent civilians, and has jailed thousands of others. CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jan-13 World View -- Syria's Assad frees 2,130 prisoners in exchange for 48 Iranians thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Jan-2013)
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Three scenarios for an accidental South China Sea war
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India is blaming Pakistan for an "unprovoked attack" by Pakistani forces crossing the Line of Control (LoC) separating the Pakistani and Indian controlled portions of Kashmir, and killing two Indian soldiers and wounding a third. The body of one of the dead men was found badly mutilated and beheaded on the Indian side of the border. This incident follows by two days the wounding of two Pakistani soldiers in a firefight at the LoC, as we reported. Kashmir has been mostly peaceful in the last few years, though there were a number of conflicts at the LoC since the end of the bloody, genocidal 1947 war between Hindus and Muslims whose epicenter was Kashmir. However, there are large Pakistani and Indian armies on their respective sides of the Line of Control, and new hostilities could break out at any time. Global Post
Wegelin & Co, a private Swiss bank founded in 1741, will close its doors, after pleading guilty in U.S. district court to violating American laws, by keeping the names of American depositors secret. The bank had no offices in the United States, and was not violating any Swiss laws, but somehow they were guilty of violating American laws anyway.
The Obama administration is vigorously investigating and charging foreign banks that it believes are violating secrecy laws. Banks under criminal investigation include Credit Suisse, UK-based HSBC Holdings and three Israeli banks, Hapoalim, Mizrahi-Tefahot Bank Ltd and Bank Leumi.
Long-time readers can easily guess what I'm going to say next. The Obama administration has adamantly refused to investigate and charge Citibank, Bank of America, and other banks that made big campaign contributions to Obama, even though it's provable that they committed massive fraud that created the financial crisis. (See "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud")
Instead, they go after foreign banks that committed far lesser crimes, but never made any contributions to the Obama campaign. It's a joke. Reuters
With China's aggressive military buildup, and with nationalism increasing in China and in the countries of the surrounding region, the risk of an armed clash in the South China Sea that would involve the United States and China is significant. There are at least three possible scenarios:
"Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jan-13 World View -- New fighting between India and Pakistan in Kashmir thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(9-Jan-2013)
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Obamacare causes health insurance rates to surge
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United Nations agricultural experts are reporting confusion, after figures show that China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in 2012, substantially more than a four-fold increase over the 575,000 tons imported in 2011. The confusion stems from the fact that there is no obvious reason for vastly increased imports, since there has been no rice shortage in China. The speculation is that Chinese importers are taking advantage of low international prices, but all that means is that China's own vast supplies of domestically grown rice are being stockpiled. Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason? Perhaps it's related to China's aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia.
Heaven knows that I'm not a paranoid person, but it was just three days ago that I reported that Australians are running short of powdered milk formula because Chinese tourists are visiting Australia, buying large quantities of the formula in bulk, and taking it back to China. There's no apparent reason for that, either. China Daily and Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal
According to a study by the New York Times, as President Obama's first term ends, health insurers in many states are demanding double-digit rate increases, sometimes as high as 20-25%, because of higher medical expenses resulting from Obamacare. President Obama promised in 2008 that Obamacare would “bring down premiums by $2,500 for the typical family” by the end of his first term. According to Aetna, a supporter of Obamacare, for people who are unlucky enough not to have subsidized premiums, rates will rise 20-50% on the average, and some will see 100% increases. Young people will pay the most astronomical increases, since they will be subsidizing the coverage of older people. Young adults should expect to see premiums double under Obamacare.
We are now seeing Obamacare's increasingly destructive effects on the economy that I predicted when the law was first proposed. (See "Obama's health plan, a proposal of economic insanity" from 2009.)
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At that time, I wrote a detailed analysis comparing the Obamacare proposal to what had previously been the most disastrous economy policy in my lifetime -- President Nixon's wage-price controls. Nixon imposed wage-price controls on August 15, 1971, in an effort to control inflation which, at that time, was at 4% and falling. Instead of controlling inflation, the wage-price controls caused enormous economic distortions that caused inflation to spiral out of control. The controls were a disaster, and were rescinded in 1974, as inflation rates surged to an astronomical 12% level.
Now we see an even worse disaster in the making. Obamacare is destroying the medical industry, pushing medical prices and insurance prices through the roof. Lobbyists are flooding into Washington to demand special favors, whether they're acupuncturists or chiropractors or fertility specialists or medical device manufacturers, and the groups that have contributed the most to the Obama's campaign will get the most favorable treatment.
President Obama lives in Camelot, where you can pass a law that snow may never slush upon the hillside or that insurance premiums won't go up. And let's not forget that it was only a few months ago that President Obama was on the Tonight Show, bragging that he was unable to do eighth-grade math, which is entirely believable.
Ohhhh, isn't it wonderful that all we have to do is pass a law, and we can do anything we want. Let's pass a law to make alcohol illegal. Oh wait, we tried that. Let's pass a law that makes women's salaries the same as men. Oh wait, that is a law. Well, then let's pass a law that says that men will get pregnant from now on, rather than women. That makes as much sense as Obamacare.
Actually, there was one more economic policy in my lifetime that's worth mentioning, and it was even worse than Obamacare. It's Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in China, starting in 1958. Here's a summary:
Like Obamacare and Nixon's wage-price controls, Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward was a disaster, though worse than either of the others. The Chinese bureaucracy at the regional levels lied about crop yields until it was too late, and by the time the government figured out that there wasn't enough food, many tens of thousands were forced to die of starvation. New York Times and Forbes
The world of 1913, a century ago, was an exciting place where life was good. The world was dynamic, modern, interconnected, smart -- just like ours. Radio telegraphy was being introduced, meaning that information would speed around the world with no need for wires. And with life so good in an interconnected world, it was thought that war had become impossible.
On the other hand, a historically minded person might have seen things differently. Particular themes recur throughout history -- human greed, the manipulation of technology, the importance of geography in determining military outcomes, the power of belief in shaping politics, a solid conviction that this time is different. You thought that the debt-fueled boom of the 2000s was different from all those other booms throughout history? Wrong. The ancient Greeks, with their understanding of greed, self-deception, hubris, and nemesis, would have been quite able to interpret the 2008 financial crisis without the need for an advanced degree in financial astrophysics from Harvard Business School. In 1913, as in previous years, an international exhibition was held to commemorate the advances of the world toward greater integration -- held in Belgium this time, in a city that would quake with the sound of artillery shells within a year. In 1913, German Kaiser Wilhelm II was viewed by some as a peacemaker. World War I, the Great War, changed everything. To take one example of how things might change today, a miscalculation in the South China Sea could easily set off a chain of events not entirely dissimilar to a shot in Sarajevo in 1914, with alliance structures, questions of prestige, escalation, credibility, and military capability turning what should be marginal to global affairs into a central question of war and peace. Charles Emmerson, Foreign Policy
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports for no apparent reason thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Jan-2013)
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India and Pakistan armies clash in Kashmir
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When it was announced that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad would give a nationwide speech on Sunday, some people dared to hope that he would announce an end to his program of massive bloody slaughter of innocent women and children in his own country. Unsurprisingly, nothing of the sort happened. Here are some excerpts from his speech:
"Today we meet and suffering permeates Syrian land and there is no place for joy in any corner of the country while security and safety are absent from its streets and alley ways.We meet today and there are mothers who have lost their finest children and families who have lost their providers, children who have been orphaned and brothers divided among the martyrs, the refugees, and the missing. ...
Terrorists holding the views of al Qaeda who call themselves jihadists are the ones running the terrorist operations here and we are fighting them. It is not impossible to destroy them if we have the courage. ...
Whoever talks solely of a political solution only is turning a blind eye to the facts and he is either ignorant or has been fooled into selling his people and the blood of martyrs for free and we will not allow this.
We are now in a state of war in every sense of the word. This war targets Syria using a handful of Syrians and many foreigners. Thus, this is a war of defending the nation."
There have been 60,000 deaths since the war began in March, 2011, the vast majority of them women and children. In saying that his opponents are foreigners and terrorists, controlled by foreign powers, he's indicating that he plans to continue massacring innocent women and children.
Assad's speech is another embarrassment for Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations envoy who replaced Kofi Annan, and who has been meeting frequently with al-Assad in an attempt to convince him to agree to some kind of political solution. Like Annan, Brahimi has been a total failure. Reuters and Guardian (London)
First, by way of introduction, let me reprise the following:
So with repeated failures by economists and by the Brookings Institute itself, you'd think they'd develop a little humility. Instead, here are some excerpts from an interview on CNN's Reliable Sources on Sunday, or Thomas Mann of Brookings Institute and Norman Ornstein of American Enterprise Institute on the subject of the fiscal cliff:
Thomas Mann: "The Republican Party is very much together like a Tea Party now. Their ideological commitments have moved far to the Right and they really have deep skepticism of the whole notion of facts, of evidence, of science. And they're willing to engage in behavior that a generation ago we would have said is just beyond the pale, that is take the country's public credit and risk a default to get their way."Thomas Mann: "It's just stunning what Republicans have said and been willing to do that's simply aren't true, not in a little fact-checking way, but in broad arguments about what America's about, where we've come from, why we have deficit problems now, what government spending does to jobs, and the like."
Norm Ornstein: "And, you know, part of our concern is -- again, it's not ideological. But if voters don't have a sense of who's to blame, in a system -- you know, it's not a parliamentary system. If you have a party acting as a parliamentary minority, you're going to have to find ways to hold them accountable and it's up to the press to report the truth, not the balance."
It's absolutely incredible. Instead of recognizing their repeated record of failures, and saying something like, "Maybe we're wrong, but we believe that the Republicans are making some errors," they claim that they have the "facts," they're right about everything, and anyone who disagrees is an extremist.
And then they say "it's not ideological!!"
How stupid do Mann and Ornstein have to be to claim they know everything, despite repeated past failures by their colleagues? Note that I'm not saying that they're wrong and the Republicans are right. I'm saying that Mann and Ornstein don't have the vaguest clue what they're talking about, and that they're simply making stuff up to support their ideology.
But this is the way people are these days. If you disagree with them, then you're an "extremist." If you disagree with an Obama policy, then you're a "racist." If you're a member of the Tea Party, then you're a "teabagger," according to CNN's David Gergen and Anderson Cooper, who giggled as they uttered the epithet. (See "Vile 'teabagging' jokes signal the deterioration of CNN and NBC news")
At least Mann and Ornstein didn't threaten any Republicans with violence. That task regularly falls to Teamsters president James Hoffa, who said of the Tea Party in his introduction to the next speaker president Obama, "We are ready to march. Let’s take these sons of bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong." And his union thugs have followed his advice.
As far as who's right and who's wrong, I would remind readers that in 2005 I issued a challenge to anyone to find a web site, an analyst, a journalist or a politician anywhere in the world with a better predictive record than my web site, GenerationalDynamics.com, and no one has produced one. I set up my web ten years ago, and I've posted thousands of articles containing hundreds of predictions that have all turned out to be right or are trending right. None has turned out to be wrong. That's not because I'm particularly clever or prescient, but because in ten years the Generational Dynamics methodology has been proven to be valid. Unlike the ideological rantings of morons like Mann and Ornstein. CNN
Kashmir was the epicenter of the extremely bloody 1947 war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition, the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. The "Line of Control (LoC)" in Kashmir, separating the Indian-held territory from the Pakistan-held territory is the site of continuing violence. The LoC was established by the United Nations, following the Partition war, to "settle" the Kashmir problem by partitioning the region and giving part of it to each. The U.N. mandated that an election be held in Kashmir within five years to decide which country they wanted to belong to, but India has always blocked any such election, knowing that it would lose in the majority Muslim population.
On Sunday, India and Pakistan armies clashed near the LoC. According to a Pakistani report:
"The Pakistani military said Indian troops had crossed the Line of Control (LoC) and raided their Sawan Patra checkpost in Kashmir. ... "Pakistan Army troops effectively responded to the attack successfully." Two Pakistani soldiers were critically injured in the attack, one of whom later embraced martyrdom."
Here's the report from India:
"Denying Pakistan army's allegations that Indian soldiers crossed the Line of Control (LoC) near north Kashmir's Uri area, the army on Sunday said Pakistan army resorted to unprovoked mortar shelling on two-three posts in the morning.There was a breach of ceasefire as Pakistan resorted to mortar shelling in the morning. Our troops retaliated with small arms," said an army spokesman."
The clash ended with no further casualties. Dawn (Islamabad) and Hindustan Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jan-13 World View -- Brookings Institute freaks out over 'extremism' and fiscal cliff thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Jan-2013)
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Greek communities adopt local currency to enable bartering
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Syria's state-run news agency, SANA, made a bare-bones announcement that president Bashar al-Assad will deliver a major nationwide speech to the nation on Sunday, the first in seven months. The announcement has raised hopes that al-Assad will announce some sort of plan to achieve peace, but it's just as likely that he'll announce plans to conduct more slaughter. The uprising has killed more than 60,000 people since it began in March 2011, and the vast majority of those killed have been innocent civilians, women and children who were targeted for extermination by the al-Assad regime's forces. In his last formal speech, given last June, al-Assad said:
"If we work together. I confirm that the end to this situation is near."
U.S. troops have stared to arrive in Turkey to man Patriot missile systems meant to protect the country from potential Syrian missiles, following Nato's November 30 approval of Turkey's request for the Patriot systems. Some 400 American troops will be airlifted into Turkey in the next few days, and additional equipment will reach Turkey by sea later in January. Germany and the Netherlands are also deploying their own batteries of U.S.-built Patriot systems. When fully deployed, there will be more than 1,000 American, German and Dutch troops based in Turkey. AP
Days after the Palestinian Authority won the vote in the United Nations General Assembly to create the State of Palestine, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a series of sanctions in response to this "attack on Zionism." (See "3-Dec-12 World View -- Israel withholds tax revenues from the Palestinian Authority")
One of those announcements was plans to build 3,000 new settlement homes in the West Bank in the "E-1 area." This plan was particularly condemned because filling that area with settlements would cut off the West Bank from Arab neighborhoods, and would end the "peace process" (which is dead anyway).
Now Netanyahu is being criticized by Israel's right-wing because he is reportedly delaying plans to build the settlements. According to Uri Ariel:
"Stopping the publication of the building plans for E-1 proves that his talk about settlement is an illusion. The day after the elections, we will again discover the real Netanyahu, the one who freezes building and gives in to pressure."
However, the prime minister's office denied that the project has been shelved. Israel National News
Japan had sought from South Korea extradition of a Chinese national who set fire to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, which houses veterans of WW II, including some war criminals. The South Korean court refused the request, saying:
"[Extraditing Liu to Japan would] "deny the universal value of most of the civilized countries. ...The Yasukuni Shrine is the property of a religious group in legal terms but (the court) deems the shrine holds a political symbol where the war criminals are enshrined."
So I guess South Korea believes that it's OK for anyone to burn down any building that symbolizes an ideology that they disagree with. Perhaps this court decision will motivate some North Koreans to burn down some Seoul buildings, or perhaps launch a few missiles at some South Korean homes or warships.
The 38-year-old Chinese national is now back in Shanghai. Japan Times and The Kankyoreh (Seoul)
A number of communities in Greece, led by the central Greek port city of Volos, are adopting a new ad-hoc local currency called the Tem ("Alternative Monetary Unit") to make it easier to barter goods and services in the face of the growing financial crisis. Thousands of people have joined the bartering network that uses the Tem currency. According to one mother of five who uses the currency:
"One Tem is the equivalent of one euro. My oil and soap came to 70 Tem and with that I bought oranges, pies, napkins, cleaning products and Christmas decorations. I've got 30 Tem left over. For women, who are worst affected by unemployment, and don't have kafeneia [coffeehouses] to go to like men, it's like belonging to a hugely supportive association."
The financial crisis is linked to a deflationary spiral that makes it hard for many people to obtain any currency (coins or bills), and this makes it difficult for ordinary people to barter goods and services. By introducing a new local currency, the "wheels of commerce are oiled," and bartering becomes a lot easier. This even has the effect of increasing employment, in the sense that people who work in this bartering network get paid in the available Tem currency, rather than in the unavailable euro currency. Guardian and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jan-13 World View -- South Korea refuses to extradite Yasukuni arsonist to Japan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(6-Jan-2013)
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Al-Jazeera buys Al Gore's Current TV to gain American audience
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Although the health of Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez is tightly held state secret, except for the fact that he's suffereing from a respiratory infection following his December 11 cancer surgery, more people are growing convinced that Chávez's health is deteriorating and that he might even be approaching death.
The opposition party in Venezuela is demanding more information, and is accusing the government of taking orders from Cuba's government. Opposition leader Antonio Ledezma is claiming that Chávez "is virtually kidnapped by a foreign government" in Cuba:
"Enough disrespect for Venezuelans. I feel Venezuelans have been deceived and the good faith of President Hugo Chávez's followers and relatives has been betrayed. ... [W]ho is giving instructions from Cuba to the officials currently in charge of the Venezuelan government?They are getting (instructions) and what we want to know is who is giving the instructions, because according to the latest report of Communication Minister Ernesto Villegas, President Chávez is in a critical health status."
Few people believe that Chávez will be able to return for his inauguration next week, and that may constitutionally require a new election for President.
Cubans are also fearful of the possible death of Chávez. Prior to the 1990s, Cuba was supported by a great deal of aid from the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba suffered from an enormous economic depression, with severe shortages of food and fuel, and prolonged electricity blackouts. Finally, Chávez stepped in and became the new benefactor of Cuba's socialist paradise, providing oil at far below market rates. During the recent presidential election, Chávez's opponent Henrique Capriles made clear that if he won then he would end the oil subsidy to Cuba. Thus, Cubans are dreading the death of Chávez, because it would mean a return to the economic depression of the 1990s. El Universal (Caracas) and Reuters
Following the November 29 vote by the United Nations General Assembly to create a non-member state of Palestine, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas decreed on Thursday that the name of the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been changed to "State of Palestine," and that this name will appear on all stamps, signs and letterheads. Global Post
I personally am looking forward to seeing al-Jazeera English come to American TV. I've depended very heavily on al-Jazeera for reporting on the Arab Spring, and their coverage is far better than any of the Western networks (although AFP comes close). When preparing a Generational Dynamics analysis, I need to know the attitudes and behaviors of the people in the nations that I'm writing about, and al-Jazeera does that very well in the Mideast. A lot of what al-Jazeera reports is anti-American attitudes, but I need to understand those attitudes to do generational analyses of the people involved.
(On the other hand, even al-Jazeera didn't always have the best reporting on the latest crisis in Egypt, and I had to turn to Cairo news sites, such as al-Ahram and Bikya Masr for many details.)
A lot of the objection to the al-Jazeera deal, especially from people on the right, is that its reporting is biased toward the Arab point of view.
I really have to laugh at that criticism, because al-Jazeera is absolutely no more biased than NBC news. Al-Jazeera will ignore violence by Hamas, and NBC news will ignore violence by union thugs committing violence on behalf of President Obama. You might argue that there's a difference in degree of bias (though I would disagree even with that), but there's certainly no difference in substance.
In fact, as I've mentioned a couple of times in the past, al-Jazeera's biases are not always obvious. Al-Jazeera clearly hates Israel, but that's what we would expect. What I've noticed is that al-Jazeera appears to hate the Palestinian Authority (State of Palestine) even more than they hate Israel. And they love Hamas the same as NBC News loves Obama.
It's worth pointing out that I used to complain about the BBC as well ( "Why is BBC so blatantly anti-American?" from 2005). The BBC news coverage was dripping with enormous hatred for President Bush, and it showed through all their newscasts. Now, of course, they love President Obama, and reserve their vitriolic hatred for Grover Norquist. Still, there's no choice but to use these biased sources, and compensate for their biases.
The joker in all this is Al Gore. He singlehandedly generates more carbon emissions that almost anyone else in the world, but he seems to have a knack for turning it into money. Al Gore may be a loon, but he's a loon that knows how to make a fortune from his lunacy. PBS
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jan-13 World View -- Palestinian Authority changes name to 'State of Palestine' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(5-Jan-2013)
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Venezuela's government vows unity as Chavez's health deteriorates
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Burma's army is escalating clashes with ethnic Karen rebels in northern Kachin state by carrying out air strikes against the rebels, after they threatened to block supply convoys to a government base. According to the separatist Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the supply convoys were being blocked because the government has imposed a blockade, preventing food from being delivered from a camp with 40,000 refugees. (For some background, see "23-Feb-10 News - Is Burma poised for a new civil war?")
This escalation in northern Burma comes at a time when ethnic and religious violence is also increasing in Rakhine state in western Burma, between Buddhist Rakhines and Muslims Rohingyas. ( "27-Oct-12 World View -- U.N. alarmed as ethnic violence grows in western Burma (Myanmar)")
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're seeing something very familiar. Burma's last crisis war was an extremely bloody and genocidal civil war engulfing a number of ethnic groups in Burma. That war ended in 1958, so the time is approaching when the survivors of that war will all have disappeared, and a new bloody civil war can begin. In the meantime, outbreaks of violence between ethnic groups are on the increase, and there will be periods of violence alternating with periods of "truce," until something finally triggers all out war. BBC and Radio Free Asia
Australian supermarkets that are supposed to hold baby formula have become bare, as the two major suppliers of baby formula have become unable to keep up with the demand. The demand is coming from visitors from China, who visit Australia, buy the formula in bulk, and take it back to China with them. China is apparently suffering a new panic related to the 2008 scandal, where thousands of babies got sick because milk producers added melamine, an industrial chemical used to make plastics and fertilizer, to their milk products. (See "A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster" from 2008.) The melamine was added because it gave the appearance of higher protein levels in government tests. Unfortunately, it also caused kidney stones and renal problems and, in some cases, death. Now there's a new surge of concern in China, and tourists are flocking to Australia to stock up on "safe" baby formula, leaving the Australians high and dry. Al-Jazeera
The top lieutenants in the government of Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez vowed unity and blamed the United States for "lies and manipulation, a campaign to try to create uncertainty." According to Vice President Nicolas Maduro, who will succeed Chávez if he dies:
"We are here more united than ever. And we have sworn before comandante Hugo Chávez, and we reaffirmed to him today in our oath ... that we would be united with our people. ...We know that the United States is where these manipulations are being managed. They think that their time has come. And we have entered a kind of crazy hour of offensive by the right, here and internationally."
There is talk of government infighting, as questions arise whether Chávez will be fit to take the oath of office on January 10. Officials refused to discuss the health of Chávez, except to describe it as "stable" but "delicate." It's thought that Chávez is seriously ill from a respiratory infection, following a complex cancer surgery on December 11. AFP
Like the Obamacare bill, the recent 154 page "fiscal cliff" bill was prepared by Democratic strategists in dark rooms and presented to the Senate for a vote before anyone even had a chance to read it. The law raises everyone's payroll tax, and brings in $600 billion in new taxes, but adds $4 trillion to the deficit in new spending. Now that a couple of days have passed, blogger Matt Stoller has studied the bill to find some of the pork. Probably the most startling example is $1.6 billion in tax free financing for the new massive headquarters building for Goldman Sachs. As we've pointed out many times, the Obama administration refuses to investigate and prosecute any of the bankers responsible for the financial crisis, despite evidence of massive fraud, because these bankers made huge campaign contributions to President Obama. Apparently giving big campaign contributions to Obama not only excuses you from criminal prosecution for any crimes, leaving you free to go on and commit more crimes, but it also gets you big subsidies from the government. Naked Capitalism
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jan-13 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) Army warplanes strike Kachin rebels in north thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Jan-2013)
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More left wing violence, this time over gun control
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The German press, normally slavishly admiring of President Barack Obama, are hailing the fiscal cliff bill as a big "victory" for the President, because he got the tax increases and spending increases he wanted, despite Republican opposition.
The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine called the negotiation "a tiresome farce that no one is interested in seeing any longer." The left-leaning Die Tageszeitung writes:
"Precious little has been gained, particularly when it comes to implementing the platforms for which Barack Obama was re-elected in November -- even if the Republicans don't want to believe it. ... In Washington today, the main mission of politics is obstruction. All sides are acting as though the only conceivable form of politics is constantly relying on emergency measures in a panic. ...It will be a small political miracle if other means were used to resolve the next stage over the next two months, the deferred budget cuts and increase in the debt ceiling. Perhaps falling over the cliff could have helped matters there. But politicians knew to prevent that from happening."
The left-leaning Berliner Zeitung writes:
"Sure, Obama managed to save unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed and avoided cuts to social and health benefits for the time being with the fiscal cliff compromise. But the ultimate decision over the cuts is far from being made. A year of endless negotiations over the debt ceiling and the unresolved budget issues awaits. The still fiscally conservative and resolute Republicans remain pitted against the still hesitant president, who remains hopeful of bipartisan cooperation. But even if Obama is now finally determined to fight their obsession with spending cuts, he'll still have to adjust to governing with less money soon."
Other commentators have pointed out that the bill will:
However, there's no need for concern, since the bill won't have much effect on the million dollar bonuses that bankers awarded themselves.
The bill is 154 pages long, and senators were given three minutes to read it before they voted on it. Der Spiegel and CNS News
A Pakistan charity organization, Support With Working Solution, has suspended its operations in Pakistan after seven members of its staff, six women and one man, were ambushed and shot dead on Tuesday after leaving a local community center. Taliban and other al-Qaeda-linked militant terrorist groups have been critical of the activities of such organizations because they provide education for girls, and because they provide polio and measles immunization vaccinations, which the Taliban claims is a secret plot to sterilize Muslims and prevent more Muslim children. This comes as the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting that Pakistan had a record high number of measles cases in 2012, and a record number of deaths from measles. Most of the children who died from measles were from the districts affected by the massive floods of the last three years. Pakistan Tribune and Daily Times (Pakistan)
More than 50 Palestinians were hospitalized after hundreds of angry Palestinians demonstrated and threw stones and empty glass bottles at Palestinian security forces, who responded by firing live bullets in the air and throwing tear gas bombs. The riots were triggered because the Palestinian government forgave the electricity debts of the Palestinians living in refugee camps, but did not do the same for Palestinians living in municipalities. "All Palestinian residents should be treated equally and fairly — this is a social must," said one municipality mayor. The demonstrations are spreading city by city and village by village, and thousands of Palestinians are expected to take part. Gulf News
As we've been reporting left-wing violence and threats of war, especially by union thugs acting on behalf of President Obama, has been increasing, and President Obama has silently supported it. (See "26-Dec-12 World View -- Andrew Sullivan and the Gun Control Fantasy")
Now we have a new threat of violence from left-wing columnist Donald Kaul, who retired last year, but has now returned in order to threaten more violence against people he dislikes:
"Then I would tie Mitch McConnell and John Boehner, our esteemed Republican leaders, to the back of a Chevy pickup truck and drag them around a parking lot until they saw the light on gun control."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jan-13 World View -- Pakistan has measles surge as health workers are murdered thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Jan-2013)
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Egypt's currency collapses to seven-year low
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and affiliate Ansar Dine are now in almost complete control of northern Mali, a region as large as France, and is entrenching itself to prepare for a war by external forces attempting to eject it. The U.N. Security Council has authorized military intervention in Mali, under a proposal by 15 nations in West Africa, but there is little energy to mount the intervention. For years, al-Qaeda has been trying to gain control of an entire country, in order to use it as a base to launch attacks against other countries. Now, for the first time, they may be close to success. AP
Egypt's pound currency, which has been falling steadily since the January, 2011, Egyptian revolution, has fallen to its lowest value against the dollar in seven years. The collapse has been caused by a number of factors: bank runs by Egyptians, converting pounds to dollars; political turmoil; slowing tourism revenue and foreign investment; and a sharp fall in foreign currency reserves in the central bank. The collapse will increase the prices of imported staples, such as tea and sugar, and underlines the crisis facing Egypt's economy. President Mohamed Morsi said that the situation "does not worry or scare us, and within days it will balance out." Reuters and Al-Arabiya
A couple of days ago, I wrote, "America is truly Greece now," and the past 48 hours have shown that in the worst sense. President Obama has been gloating constantly, bragging that he's been able to screw the Republicans by forcing them to raise taxes without having to agree to any spending cuts. The whole point of the sequestration agreement in mid-2011 is that long before 1/1/2013 arrived, Congress would be forced to implement tax reform and reduce spending.
Just the opposite has occurred. The "compromise" fiscal cliff bill makes taxes more complicated, and increases the deficit. (As I write this, early Tuesday evening, it appears that this bill will pass within a couple of hours.)
The "Kick the Can Theory" predicted that Washington would do the minimum possible to get through the current crisis, and would do nothing to fix the underlying problems, so that there would be a worse crisis later. That's exactly what's happening. America today is much worse off than it was a month ago.
As usual, expect President Obama, the Congressional Democrats, and the Congressional Republicans to lie to the press, and to declare some sort of great victory for the American people. And, as usual, expect the mainstream press to be completely in the tank for Obama, and to agree with everything he says, even when it's totally incoherent. Meanwhile, get ready for one crisis after another in 2013. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jan-13 World View -- Al-Qaeda prepares for war in northern Mali thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Jan-2013)
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Updating the Global Conflict Risk Assessment graphic
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Starting in 2004, I began posting a "Global Conflict Risk" graphic on the Home Page of my web site. It's purpose was to encapsulate the current state of the world, and the likelihood of world conflict. The intention was that the graphic would be updated only rarely, as world events require. The last update was in February, 2011, as follows:
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My thinking in 2004 was that there were six regions of the world that had the potential for triggering a world war. Thus, there were important regional wars going on in Sri Lanka, Darfur, Congo, and other places, but these wars were unlikely to spiral into major wars.
On the other hand, I believed that a war in any of the six regions shown in the graphic was likely to spiral into a larger regional conflict, and then possibly to world war. In addition, I felt that a major financial crisis or world flu outbreak would trigger a broad war. Thus, the graphic was indicating my personal assessment of the probability (green=low, yellow=medium, high=red) of a crisis in each of these eight categories during the next 6-12 months, since such a crisis was thought likely to trigger a wider war.
My thinking in 2005 has turned out to be wrong. There have been multiple wars in the six regions, and they have not spiraled into wider wars. (However, we have not yet had a major financial crisis nor a major flu outbreak.)
One of the reasons that my reasoning turned out to be wrong was that I assumed that one of these regional wars would cause other countries to be pulled into the war, causing an uncontrolled spiral. As it turns out, the opposite happened: Other countries rushed in to force a resolution to the war as quickly as possible, so that it wouldn't spiral out of control. In most cases, this "resolution" did nothing to solve the underlying problems, but only "kicked the can down the road" in the familiar way that does the minimum possible to fix the current crisis, leaving the crisis to recur a few weeks or months later.
I'm now updating the Global Conflict Risk graphic to reflect this new thinking. The new graphic is as follows:
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I'm keeping the categories the same, but now when I assign a probability of conflict in a region, I'm taking into account my assessment of whether a war in that region is likely to pull in other countries as combatants or as pacifiers.
Let's go through each of the eight categories, and the probability of a regional war that will spiral into a world war:
In 2004, I identified the "Six most dangerous regions in world", and I did a little computation to estimate the probability of a regional war that might spiral into world war, and I came up with a probability of 22% each year. I don't think that computation was particularly valid, but it illustrates the point that in 2004 I expected the worst to be at least a few years in the future.
This year, there are strong signals that the financial crisis and the China threat are imminent. China has almost said as much, as described above.
To pull things together for the 2013 outlook, let's take a look at the following updated graph for the historic S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (also called "stock valuations"):
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It's worth pointing out that you see all kinds of historical graphs on CNBC and the other financial media, but you never see a historical graph of the P/E ratio, because anyone who looks at it can see just how dysfunctional the financial system really is. In fact, as we've repeatedly documented, naming names, so-called "experts" lie openly about stock valuations. (See, for example, "14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations" from earlier this year.) In today's world, respectable people are gangsters, and gangsters are treated as respectable people.
As you can see from the above graph, the P/E ratio has returned to the 5-7 level every 31-32 years or so, most recently in 1980. Since reaching a peak value of 123.8 in mid-2009, the ratio has been falling fairly steadily. If you look at the historical flow of the above graph, you can see that the P/E ratio is about to fall sharply, again to the 5-7 level, which would put the Dow at about 3,000.
The stock market has just barely been holding on, thanks to huge amounts of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus. The Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) have each injected over a trillion dollars into the banking system in the last year. That liquidity has done nothing for the economy in general, but it's kept the stock market afloat.
Here's how analyst John P. Hussman describes the situation:
"Since 2009, both the stock market and the broad U.S. economy have been dependent on perpetual support from massive federal deficits and unprecedented money creation. Meanwhile, Wall Street is content to ignore the extent of this support, and looks on every movement of the economy as a sign of intrinsic health – which is a lot like admiring the graceful flight of a dead parrot swinging by a string from the ceiling fan."
With China threatening war, and with the global financial system completely dysfunctional, it's possible that the "fiscal cliff" will be the least of America's problems in 2013.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jan-13 World View -- 2013 Forecast: Financial Crisis and China Threat thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Jan-2013)
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