Dynamics
|
|
Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
| HOME WEB LOG COUNTRY WIKI COMMENT FORUM DOWNLOADS ABOUT | |
Israel prepares to launch airstrikes at Russian S-300 missiles
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In a televised interview, Bashar al-Assad, the psychopathic president of Syria, appeared to be claiming that Russia has already delivered advanced long-range S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria, and that more of them were on the way. However, that report was apparently put forth by an over-anxious editor at Al Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper. Careful analysis of al-Assad's words reveal that he hedged on the question. One possible explanation for the confusion is that a few components for the S-300 missile systems have already been delivered, but the main delivery is yet to come. Ria Novosti and VOA
During the 2006 Israeli war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hezbollah launched about 4,000 rockets at Israel. These rockets had limited range and no guidance systems, so their effectiveness was not great.
The S-300 missile systems that Russia is delivering to Syria are far from the purely defensive that Russia is claiming. They have sophisticated guidance systems and a range of 125 miles, in a climate where al-Assad is threatening war with Israel. With those capabilities, the al-Assad regime could destroy a civilian aircraft during takeoff and landing, or could establish a no-fly zone over Israeli territory.
If and when Russia delivers the S-300s to Syria, it's thought that they will be installed and operated by hundreds of Russian military personnel who would be killed in an Israeli air strike. Israel is saying that they will not be attacked until they're deployed, which will be a few weeks or months after they're delivered. Reuters and Reuters
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad appeared confident during his televised interview that his side was winning in the two-year-old Syrian conflict. Analysts agree that in recent weeks the war has turned in al-Assad's favor, for several reasons:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-May-13 World View -- Syria tensions grow as al-Assad claims he's winning thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Russia establishes military bases in captured Georgian territory
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, it took control of two Georgian provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and has discussed the possibility of either absorbing them into Russia or recognizing them as independent nations. The Georgian leadership has said that relations with Russia will not be normalized unless Abkhazia and South Ossetia are returned to Georgia, something that is not going to happen. To the contrary, Russia has greatly strengthened its military presence in both provinces, with about 5,000 military personnel in Abkhazia and 3,500 more in South Ossetia. The military occupation of these formerly Georgian territories sends a clear and aggressive signal to Georgia and the rest of the world that Russia is here to stay. Jamestown
American public opinion is split on the question of Western military intervention in Syria. Most Americans don't have a clue what's going on, and would not be able to distinguish between "Syria" and "cereal". Among those who are aware of what's going on, both Democrats and Republicans are split on whether or not to militarily intervene. Europe is also split, with Britain and France favoring intervention, and other countries, led by Austria, strongly opposing it.
Public opinion in the Arab world is also split, sharply along Sunni versus Shia lines. The Shia terrorist group Hezbollah, supported by Iran and Russia, are warning the West to stay out, even as they continue to supply weapons to the regime of Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad.
Sunni Arab public opinion is highly critical of the West for allowing tens of thousands of innocent Arabs to be slaughtered and hundreds of thousands to be driven from their homes, and much of the criticism is highly personal, directed at President Barack Obama.
In particular, many Arabs see the agreement between the U.S. and Russia to hold another international conference as just one more sign of American weakness, giving in to Russia's demands and giving al-Assad more time to kill innocent Arab women and children in their beds. According to one Saudi Arabian columnist Mashari Al-Zaydi:
"The problem of U.S. President Barack Obama can be summed up in a single word: hesitation. The man is short-sighted, confused and diffident. It seems that the gist of his policy is disagreeing with every position of his predecessor, George W. Bush, and that is quarrelsomeness, not policy.This assessment of Obama's policy is not voiced only by his Republican rivals in the U.S., or by those who hate some [aspects] of his global [foreign] policy, but also by some proponents of his own school of thought, like the well-known American author David Ignatius, who recently wrote a critique of the Obama administration's policy that was not confined to foreign [policy] affairs... Summarizing the problematic aspects of Obama's conduct, he said that the public is more afraid of a weak administration than a strong one!
We are not talking [only] about harsh critics of this administration, inside or outside the U.S. This is apparent from a recent article by Lebanese-American writer Fuad 'Ajami, who slammed Obama for his feebleness, his lack of leadership, and his inability to take bold decisions under difficult circumstances, especially when it comes to his position on the Syrian catastrophe. Nor is it only Republicans who attack [Obama]. [Criticism is also voiced] by people who were overjoyed by the arrival [in the White House] of a black Harvard graduate with African and Islamic roots, the son of Hussein Obama. [They expected him] to have a better understanding of the Islamic and Arab societies and their nature. But eventually, as the helplessness of the international community [to address the situation] in Syria increased due to the [conduct of] the U.S. and Obama, it became apparent that this man is unable to lead and that he hides his failure and ignorance behind a lot of hypothetical talk about red, green and purple lines..."
I agree with those who claim that American and Western intervention two years ago had a good chance of bringing the horrific battle to an early end. But we have to recognize that the same Saudi writers who were critical of America's intervention in Iraq are now critical of America for NOT intervening in Syria. America's role as policemen of the world is not an easy one. Memri
According to a statement by the U.S. Department of State on Wednesday:
"[W]e condemn in the strongest terms Hassan Nasrallah’s recent declarations confirming Hezbollah’s militants – Hezbollah militants’ active role in the fighting in Qusair and other parts of Syria. This is an unacceptable and extremely dangerous escalation. We demand that Hezbollah withdraw its fighters from Syria immediately. We remain deeply concerned about reports of multiple cross-border security incidents in recent days. We also condemn yesterday’s outrageous attack on a Lebanese army checkpoint near Arsal which killed three soldiers. These and other incidents are stark reminders that the conflict in Syria poses an incredibly dangerous threat to Lebanon’s stability, the people of Lebanon and security. We call on all parties to do their part to act with restraint and respect Lebanon’s stability and security."
I don't know if anyone in the State Dept. has a sense of humor, but this statement will definitely be treated as a joke by Russia, Iran and everyone in the Mideast, particularly by Hezbollah itself. This is just one more example of an empty pseudo-threat by the Obama administration that, like the various empty "red line" threats, only illustrates the chaos and utter confusion in Washington Mideast policy. U.S. Department of State
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-May-13 World View -- U.S. State Department demands that Hezbollah leave Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Buddhist vs Muslim violence spreads in Burma (Myanmar)
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Russia said Tuesday that it would go ahead with the planned transfer of state of the art S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to the regime of Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad. The announcement was made in retaliation for Sunday's announcement by the European Union that its member nations had failed to reach agreement on extending the embargo, set to expire on Saturday, on weapons to al-Assad's opposition. Britain and France have led the demands to supply weapons to the opposition.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov used strong language to criticize the EU decision and justify Russia's delivery of the S-300s:
"We think this delivery is a stabilizing factor and that such steps in many ways restrain some hotheads ... from exploring scenarios in which this conflict could be given an international character with participation of outside forces, to whom this idea is not foreign."
Russia had previously promised Israel it would delay the S-300 delivery, so the new announcement represents a reversal, although no new delivery date was set. According to Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon:
"I can say that the shipments are not on their way yet. I hope they will not leave, and if, God forbid, they reach Syria, we will know what to do."
What Yaalon means, presumably, is that Israel will launch air strikes, targeting the S-300 systems, if they reach Syria. The Israelis point out that the S-300s, with a range of 125 miles, are not purely defensive, since they can target Israel's civilian aircraft.
Britain's foreign secretary William Hague said that Britain has not set a date either:
"We have said, we have made our own commitments, that at this stage, as we work for the Geneva conference, we are not taking any decision to send any arms to anyone."
Both Britain and Russia gave similar reasons for their respective decisions -- that their side's weapons will provide stability to Syria. However, with Britain, France, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey all supplying, or potentially supplying weapons to either side in Syria, and with the war spilling over into Iraq and Lebanon, the country's sectarian proxy war took another giant leap forward on Tuesday. Reuters and Guardian (London)
Hundreds of people, mostly Muslims, have already been killed in sectarian violence in Burma between Buddhists and Muslims, first in Rakhine State in the southwest last year, and then in central Burma in March. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht".) Now there's been a new wave of sectarian violence, this time in the city of Lashio in northern Burma, near the border with China.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is a great example of identity group formation. The initial violence, in Rakhine state, was, in my opinion, not violence between religious groups, but rather violence between ethnic groups, dark-skinned Rohingya versus lighter skinned Burmese. However, Burma is a mostly Buddhist country, and the Rohingya are mostly Muslim, and so Muslims in other parts of Burma began to identify with the Rohingya, and Buddhists throughout the country formed their own identity group. So the ethnic violence has now been transformed, through identity group formation, into religious violence that seems increasingly likely to spiral into a larger sectarian war. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-May-13 World View -- Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
New wave of bombings strikes Shias across Baghdad, Iraq
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In a startling development late on Monday, European Union foreign ministers meeting in Brussels were unable to overcome their bickering and division to agree on the terms of an extension of the embargo on supplying weapons to Syria's opposition rebels, which is set to expire next week on June 1. The result is that, unless a new agreement is reached, individual EU nations are now each permitted to provide weapons to opposition forces fighting the Bashar al-Assad regime.
France and Britain, with mixed support from the United States, are in favor of supplying weapons to the opposition, while Austria and other countries strongly oppose it. France and Britain put forth a compromise proposal to extend the embargo for two months, on condition that it would be partially lifted when the two months ended. They argued that the mere threat of the embargo ending would cause al-Assad to back down and stop killing innocent women and children, a claim that's really laughable. Anyway, the compromise got nowhere, and now there's no embargo at all.
Those who support supplying weapons to the opposition say that al-Assad's regime has been making significant military gains in the conflict, thanks to the use of heavy weapons supplied by Russia and Iran.
Those who oppose supplying weapons to the rebels express the fear that the weapons will end up in the hands of al-Qaeda linked terrorists, as happened in Libya. Al-Qaeda linked terrorists obtained weapons and training from the Libya military action, and are now making terror strikes on target across the "Sahel" region of Africa, including Mali and Niger.
Britain and France say that they have no immediate plans to supply arms to the rebels. Telegraph (London) and Independent (London)
A new escalating wave of car bombings struck mostly Shia Muslim neighborhoods in and around Baghdad on Monday, in the latest round of terrorist violence that have killed more than 430 people so far in May. It's assumed that the perpetrators were Sunni terrorists from al-Qaeda in Iraq. Iraq's Shia government has been increasingly marginalizing Sunnis ever since the American soldiers withdrew in December, 2011, and it's believed that Sunni terrorists have been using terrorism to retaliate. AFP and AP
Terrorist bombings are almost a daily occurrence in Pakistan, and a remote controlled roadside bomb exploded on Monday in northwest Pakistan, killing five policemen and destroying their vehicle. Sectarian terrorist violence has been increasing, from Central and South Asia into the Mideast, and that trend will continue until it spirals into war. Daily Times (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-May-13 World View -- EU lifts weapons embargo to Syria's opposition militias thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Iran's Supreme Leader grooms his son to take over
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Saturday's bombastic speech by Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah may have signaled a turning point in the Syrian war, possibly by triggering a sectarian spillover of the Syrian war into Lebanon. For the first time, two rockets hit Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon's capital Beirut on Sunday, wounding four people. It's believed that the rockets were fired by Sunnis who are angered by Nasrallah's promise to support Syria's psychopathic president, Bashar al-Assad.
In Saturday's speech, Nasrallah referred to the sectarian battles that have already been occurring in the city of Tripoli, in northern Lebanon on the border with Syria. He said,
"This absurd battle must stop and those rooting for the victory of the Syrian regime or the opposition's rebels must go fight in Syria instead. Leave Tripoli neutral from Syria's conflict."
Unfortunately for Nasrallah, Sunday's missile strikes into his heartland in Beirut show that he's not nearly in control of events as he apparently believes that he is. He now has to decide whether to retaliate against Sunni fighters for the missile strikes in Beirut, or else to portray weakness by ignoring them. The National (UAE) and AP
Russia has received a great deal of international criticism for its support with money and weapons for the regime of Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad. A media report says that Russia and Israel have made a "secret deal":
One of the reasons given for reaching the agreement with Israel is Israel's Russian community:
"We are very much concerned about this; the large Russian community in Israel is a major factor in our attitude to Israel, and we will not let this happen."
However, an Israeli official called the report a "fairy tale":
"This story is detached from reality. A fairytale. There was no agreement or understanding achieved between [Russia's] Putin and [Israel's] Netanyahu. That's another piece of fantasizing."
Russia has previously cancelled the shipment of high-altitude Mig-31E interceptor jets to Syria and the supply of the Iskander-E tactical ballistic missiles. Russia Today and YNet
As we reported several days ago (see "23-May-13 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation"), Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has seen to it all that any "reformist" candidate for the June 14 presidential election has been disqualified. It now turns out that Khamenei is arranging for the victory of 68-year-old Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. Haddad-Adel is an academic with little experience in governing, but his daughter is married to Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei. So unlike Ahmadinejad, Haddad-Adel can be counted on to be compliant to the Supreme Leader's demands, and to keep the president's seat warm for his son to take over in 2017. Iran is in a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s and 1970s), and so we can expect the election of the fossil Haddad-Adel to trigger even more student protests than Ahmadinejad did. Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-May-13 World View -- Sunnis retaliate against Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Lebanon's Hezbollah leads the fight in Syria battle
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The army of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, combined with fighters from the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, is focusing heavy firepower on the strategic city of Qusair near the border with Lebanon. The city is important because it's on major roads that connect Damascus with Lebanon and with the Port of Tartous on the Mediterranean. The side gaining control of Qusair will gain a big advantage in the war. Rebels are largely surrounded in the city, suffering missile bombardments and air strikes, and may end up suffering a major defeat. BBC and Reuters
Hezbollah, led by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, is the Iran-sponsored Shia terror group in Lebanon that has its own army and controls much of Lebanon's politics. Hezbollah suffered heavy losses the last week in the battle over Qusair, and it's estimated that there were far more Hezbollah fighters in the battle than Syrian army soldiers.
Hezbollah's involvement in Syria's war is unpopular with many Lebanese people. Many of them blame Hezbollah for causing the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel that took place on Lebanon's soil, where a great deal of Lebanon's infrastructure was destroyed by Israeli airstrikes. Whether they support Hezbollah or oppose Hezbollah, most Lebanese would not like to see another war on Lebanese soil, and they fear that Hezbollah's actions will bring exactly that.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday gave a bombastic televised speech intended to answer the criticisms directed at him. He confirmed what everyone already knew -- that Hezbollah forces were fighting in Syria on the side of the al-Assad regime. He recalled that Saturday is the 13th anniversary of "Liberation and Resistance Day" -- Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000:
"This day should be forever remembered and this memory must be transmitted from one generation to another. It represents a meaningful national experience and is a passage towards the future. ...The importance of the Liberation Day is similar to the day the U.S. army withdrew from Iraq and all the region's great days that are targeted by the American-Zionist project. ...
Israel threatens Lebanon on a daily basis and has been mobilizing its forces on the border for months. It is bombing Syria and threatening it. Israel is ready for war. ...
Israel is building settlements on its border with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan and is recruiting Jews from all over the world and offering them salaries and job opportunities, and is giving them military training and weapons... These settlements are a part of the Israeli military plan. ...
The events in the last couple of years have proved that there is an axis lead by the U.S. while the rest are working under its orders. Everyone knows this axis is supported by Israel while al-Qaeda and other Takfiri [apostate/infidel] organizations from around the world were paid to take part in it. ...
We do not force anyone to go to the battle. They all go willingly and aspire to take part in the resistance. You will find tens of thousands of fighters that are ready to take all fronts. ...
I say to all the honorable people, to the mujahedeen, to the heroes, I have always promised you a victory and now I pledge to you a new one.
Whether Nasrallah can meet his promise of "tens of thousands of fighters" is doubtful. It's well to remember that Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and most people above age 30 are simply sick of war. During the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the Hezbollah fighters did not fight aggressively, mostly contenting themselves to launch rockets at Israel and then return each day to the arms of their wives. It's not expected that they'll be much more enthusiastic today. Naharnet (Beirut) and Daily Star (Beirut)
A response to Nasrallah was given by former prime minister Saad Hariri, whose father, Rafiq Hariri, was killed in a terrorist attack in 2005 perpetrated by Syria and Hezbollah. His speech represents the opinions of many people in Lebanon, which is that Nasrallah puts the value of Hezbollah above Lebanon as a whole. Hariri he uses the words "the resistance" to refer to Hezbollah:
"The resistance [Hezbollah] ends by your [Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah] hands and will. The resistance announced its political and military suicide in Qusair. You have taken the resistance to defeat in Qusair.You have carved in Syria and with the blood of children and women and the elderly ... an abyss that you wanted the resistance to fall into it. Your speech is a frank announcement that you have fallen into the abyss.
You incited sectarian and religious sentiments like never before [during your speech]. ...
This state [Lebanon], in the eyes, beliefs and ideology of Nasrallah, is good for nothing, neither at the political, security, defense or economic levels.
Nasrallah calls on the Lebanese and the president and all the political leaderships and parties and sects to acknowledge Hezbollah's state whose word rises above the word and will of the Lebanese republic.
You Lebanese, if you want to fight, then Nasrallah has invented an ingenious fatwa for fighting. You Lebanese can now fight on Syrian soil and send projects of death and martyrs to Qusair and Homs' outskirts.
We say to Nasrallah bluntly and honestly, you can shout whatever you want and you can threaten, launch accusations and describe the state in whatever terms pleases you ... your latest speech is worth nothing."
Nasrallah's speech and Hariri's reply mark reflect the increasing sectarian violence in countries in and around the Mideast. As we've been saying for years, the Mideast is headed for a sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias that will engulf the entire region. Daily Star (Beirut)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-May-13 World View -- Syria conflict in possibly climactic battle near Lebanon border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Threat of widespread terror network grows as U.S. leaves Afghanistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Egypt's Sinai Peninsula region, where the borders of Gaza, Israel and Egypt all converge, is becoming an increasing threat to Egypt, because of Bedouin unrest and jihadist terrorism. Tensions have been high in the Sinai since six Egyptian policemen and a soldier were kidnapped ten days ago by a Bedouin tribe allied with al-Qaeda linked terrorists. The hostages were finally released on Wednesday, but there's no guarantee that there won't be more kidnappings, and Morsi has announced that there will be a new military operation in the Sinai to arrest the kidnappers.
When the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Morsi beause president of Egypt in July of last year, the leaders of Hamas rejoiced. When Hamas was formed over 30 years ago, it was actually an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. And now, with a Brotherhood candidate in power in Egypt, Hamas foresaw a new era of freedom and joy for the residents of Gaza, after years of alleged oppression by the Israelis. Well, like so many other hopes and dreams in people's lives, this one didn't turn out the way they had hoped. Morsi's relations with Hamas officials have been quite frosty and, in particular, Morsi suggested that Hamas or other Gaza militants might have been responsible for the jihadist murder, in August of last year, of 16 policemen and soldiers in Egypt's Sinai, where the borders of Gaza, Israel and Egypt all converge. Morsi sternly warned Hamas, "May God help you if we find your fingerprints on what happened in the Sinai." Those suspicions were renewed by last week's Sinai kidnappings, and Hamas scrambled to assure the Egyptians that it had nothing to do with them.
Remarkably, the terrorists in Sinai are accomplishing something that any "peace process" had failed to do: Bring about cooperation among Israel, Hamas and Egypt in fighting a common enemy. Al-Monitor and Jerusalem Post
The jihadist network in Kazakhstan, inspired and financed by al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the Caucasus Emirate, has shifted from a loose grouping of largely autonomous militias into a unified movement that threatens not only Kazakhstan but all of Central Asia. Islamist groups in Kazakhstan are seeking to form an independent jihadist network like the one that exists in Russia's North Caucasus and then to pursue the establishment of a sharia state. That the goals of the Kazakhstani and North Caucasian groups are so similar reflects the influence of North Caucasus terrorist Said Buryatsky, who visited Kazakhstan between 2004 and 2006. Buryatsky's ideas are featured on many radical Islamist websites even now, and are often reflected in the thinking of Salafi groups in Central Asia.
According to an analysis by Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan in 2014 poses a "serious challenge to international stability" and increase the threat of terrorism and religious extremism:
"A diversified terrorist network, including suicide bomber training camps has already been established in the country and the Taliban has close links with foreign terrorist structures whose militants, having gained combat experience in Afghanistan, could be sent to other hot spots across the world."
Combined with the rise of militias in Central Asia, as well as the disintegration of Syria, al-Qaeda linked groups could use force to establish "a global caliphate" from Morocco to Malaysia. Jamestown and Ria Novosti
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-May-13 World View -- Egypt, Hamas, Israel cooperate as Sinai becomes more volatile thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
India enters the South China Sea dispute
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Anti-Philippine nationalism is growing in Taiwan, over the shooting two weeks ago of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippines Coast Guard ship in a disputed region of the South China Sea. A Philippines official has said it was an accident and apologized, but Taiwan is calling the apology insincere, and is demanding both a formal apology and monetary reparations. Taiwan has already stopped approval work permits for Filipinos applying for work in Taiwan, has banned Taiwanese tourists from visiting the Philippines, and has sent warships to the disputed area to conduct naval drills.
Taiwan is exploiting its economic advantage of the Philippines, putting Philippines officials in a quandary. If there's no apology, then the situation may continue to escalate, and Taiwan might deport all 87,000 Filipinos currently working in Taiwan. On the other hand, if the Philippines issues a formal apology, it would affect navy morale and would place their legal claim to the region in jeopardy.
Let me take this opportunity to point out that this is one more example that contradicts the frequently heard claim that country A will never go to war with country B because it would harm business between the two countries. As in other examples, the opposite is true. If A and B are big trading partners, then trade becomes an additional weapon of war, with advantage going to the country that will lose more economically. Asia Times
When the U.S. announced its "pivot to Asia" in 2010, there was hope in the Philippines that America would become directly involved in the South China Sea disputes and support the Philippines' sovereignty at least over regions in its U.N. defined exclusive economic zone (EEZ). However, the U.S. involvement has been limited by the financial crisis, and the U.S. has been distracted by the growing crisis in the Mideast. As a result, the Philippines government is increasingly taking matters into its own hands by working with other countries in the region to gang up on China diplomatically, in the hope of forcing China to back down on some of its claims in the South China Sea (something that is most definitely not going to happen). Asia Times and The Diplomat
China's claim to vast areas of the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other nations is causing tensions as far away as India. At a time when China's new prime minister Li Keqiang is visiting India to reduce tensions between the two countries, India's Minister of Defense has issued a statement about the South China Sea dispute:
"There should be freedom of navigation as per the UN conventions.India has commercial interests and though it is not a party to the dispute, it believes that disputes should be settled as per UN laws.
The protection of Sea-Lanes of Communication is becoming more and more important. Economic development, trade and commerce depend on the security of Sea Lanes of Communication."
This seems like a fairly innocuous statement, but in fact it's highly confrontational, because China adamantly refused to have anything to do with the U.N. conventions. China insists that it wants to settle the South China Sea disputes only via "bilateral negotiations." This means that China negotiates separately with each of the other countries with historical claims to parts of the South China Sea and use its vast military and economic power to force each country to back down. China is furious that these countries are ganging up on China through ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), since it's much harder for China to bully the entire group collectively.
India and Vietnam have set up joint oil exploration projects within the regions of the South China Sea that are clearly within Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), according to the United Nations, and Chinese ships have nonetheless been harassing Indian and Vietnam ships in the region. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-May-13 World View -- China, Taiwan gang up on Philippines in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Khamenei's Guardians Council disqualifies reformist candidates
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In a stunning generational assault, Iran's Guardians Council has followed the wishes of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and has disqualified all presidential candidates who do not follow Khamenei's hardline ideology. With a new presidential election coming next month, the council disqualified two major candidates who are considered "centrist" or "reformist."
The most colorful rejection was of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, the top aide and close friend of current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have had bitter power struggles for the last four years, related to a widening theological dispute. (See "7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent".)
In 2009 Khamenei accused Mashaei and other Ahmadinejad aides of being sorcerers, of using "supernatural powers," and of being "magicians" and invoking djinns (spirits).
The charges of sorcery are related to the devout belief, held by Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete enlightenment. Ahmadinejad disobeyed Supreme Leader Khamenei in several matters, which is considered to be equivalent to disobeying God. But Ahmadinejad was just paving the way for the return of the Hidden Imam, and was using his claim that the Hidden Imam's return is imminent as a justification for disobeying Khamenei. Thus, the charges of sorcery.
But the disqualification of Mashaei as a presidential candidate may have occurred for far more prosaic reasons. Mashaei is very outspoken on issues of individual rights and personal freedoms, particularly for women. These are all views that are firmly rejected by the hardline Khamenei.
Similarly disqualified was former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who intensely dislikes Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, but who has also criticized the Khamenei supporter for suppressing free speech, and crushing the protests in 2009, and has advocated better relations with the West.
Iran is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s. America in the 1960s was a political battle between the older generation, the hardline survivors of World War II, versus the younger "free thinking" generation that grew up after WW II. Iran today is in a political battle between the older generation, the hardline survivors of the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the following Iran/Iraq war, versus the younger free thinking generation that grew up since the 1980s.
So Khamenei's move to disqualify the centrist and reformist candidates is both an ideological assault and a generational assault. It's a desperate move, as Khamenei sees his hardline ideology being eaten away by younger generations who think it's perfectly OK for a woman to walk down the street without a head scarf. Sooner or later there'll be an "Awakening era crisis" which, like President Richard Nixon's resignation in 1974, will settle the generational battle one way or another. In the meantime, disqualifying all the reforming and centrist candidates is pretty certain to infuriate the younger generations. BBC and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-May-13 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Russia may make WW II criticisms illegal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Russia's Duma is considering passing a bill that would make criticism of Russia's World War II actions illegal, carrying a punishment of up to three years in prison. The bill would be support for the drive by president Vladimir Putin to bolster patriotism and nationalism among Russians, including the glorification of Russian military exploits. The bill would be a reaction to a comment made by opposition politician Leonid Gozman, comparing Stalin to Hitler, and Russia's intelligence services, SMERSH, to the Nazi intelligence services, the SS:
"I'm sure there were honest officers in SMERSH but they were unfortunate to work for an agency that was as criminal as the SS. The word SMERSH must fall into the same category as such words as the SS, NKVD and Gestapo, and cause horror and disgust, but not be a part of the headline for a patriotic movie. ...Yes, I think Stalin was as much a criminal as Hitler was, and Stalin's punitive agencies were as criminal and disgusting as Hitler's ones.""
This remark has triggered a Duma investigation. According to Gozman, the Duma's initiative is "one more amusing instance of buffoonery," and adds that Alexander Solzhenitsyn and other great Russians have said the same things.
It is not clear what consequences the evaluation of Gozman's comments could have for him. Moscow Times
Syria and Israel exchanged both weapons fire and threats of war on Tuesday over the border between Syria and Israel in the Golan Heights. An Israeli jeep in an overnight patrol in the Golan Heights near the border with Syria came under fire from Syrian forces across the border, and the Israelis returned fire. There have been several such exchanges of fire since Israel's aerial strikes in the Damascus area. (See "6-May-13 World View -- Israeli air strike on Damascus escalates Syria crisis") At that time, Syria said that Israel's move was a "declaration of war," and vowed to retaliate. In the latest incident, and unlike previous incidents, Syria claimed responsibility for firing on the Israeli patrol and threatened further strikes. Israel's Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz responded with his own threat:
""We will not allow the Golan Heights to become a comfortable space for Assad to operate from. If he deteriorates the situation on the Golan Heights, he will have to bear the consequences. I am not a fiery person, but we will have to know how to defend [ourselves]. All in all, the reality on the Golan Heights is unstable, and it is being undermined."
Syria's media outlets warned that "any future aggression by Israel will be answered by Syria. Those who think we are weak and are trying us are wrong." Jerusalem Post and Debka
After Israel's May 4 airstrikes, Syria's president Bashar Al-Assad's has been threatening to call for armed resistance to Israel in the Golan Heights. The Golan border between Israel and Syria has in fact been relatively quiet for 40 years, largely because the al-Assad regimes did not want a military conflict with Israel. But now Syria and its allies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, are threatening to open up a Golan Heights front against Israel. According to a Lebanese columnist close to Iran and Syria, Hezbollah will lead the military action, with the help of Iran:
The Syrian leadership has decided to provide unlimited high-quality strategic aid to the Lebanese Islamic resistance [i.e. Hezbollah] and to place all the resources of the Syrian army at the disposal of the Hezbollah leadership... and to open the gate of jihad [against Israel] from Syrian land to Arabs and Muslims who desire it, and turn the Golan into 'the land of resistance...'"
The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) called on Syria to open the Golan and all the borders to operations against Israel.
However, not all Arab militias think that a Golan military action against Israel is a good idea. Hamas in particular has broken relations with al-Assad's regime because of its massive bloodthirsty slaughter of innocent Syrian Arabs, and now considers getting rid of the al-Assad regime to have a higher priority than the resistance against Israel. One senior Hamas official mocked the al-Assad regime:
"It's strange that the Syrian regime is so 'courageous' when it comes to [attacking] its people and bombarding them with planes and mortars, but when Israel attacks it and destroys its military and civilian facilities and makes it a laughing stock in the eyes of the world, it puffs itself up with false pride and announces that it reserves the right to retaliate in the time and place of its choosing... Yesterday the Syrian regime announced... the launching of popular resistance. From now on, there is a presidential authorization for the popular resistance to shift itself to the Golan... Tomorrow popular resistance convoys will march on the occupied Golan and occupied Palestine... But where is the Syrian people that [is supposed to] carry out [this] popular resistance? Isn't this the same people that is wandering [homeless] inside and outside Syria? Isn't it the people that is being bombarded by the regime's planes day and night?..."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-May-13 World View -- Syria and allies threaten war with Israel in the Golan Heights thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
EU steps up investigation of oil price-fixing scandal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A dozen car bombings across Iraq on Monday killed at least 95 people, and this followed the killing of 200 people last week from bombings. Terrorist violence has been on the increase in Iraq since December 2011, when the last American forces pulled out of Iraq. The violence appears to be sectarian, with mostly Sunni mosques targeted on Friday, and mostly Shia mosques targeted on Monday. But it's impossible to be certain that the violence comes from Sunnis and Shias targeting each other, since Sunni terrorists freely attack both Shia and Sunni mosques -- killing anyone who they claim doesn't follow the teachings of radical hardline Islamists. Some pundits are claiming that Iraq is returning to the civil war that preceded President Bush's "surge," but in fact there never was a civil war. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from April, 2007)
It's worth taking a moment and comparing three different countries in the region, all in a generational Awakening era, and being pulled into what is essentially a sectarian proxy war:
By contrast, countries and regions that are in generational Crisis eras, such as Pakistan or Israel/Palestine, fight their conflicts internally, without the need for outside proxies.
We're increasingly seeing these Awakening era countries being the sites for sectarian Sunni vs Shia proxy wars. These wars have been worsening throughout the region, and at some point will spiral into full scale war. AFP and AP
I briefly mentioned a couple of days ago that there's an investigation into oil price-fixing, similar to the Libor price fixing investigation. And why not? There's apparently a whole generation of people in all industries with no visible ethical or moral boundaries. The European Commission stepped up its investigation on Monday by requesting information from major oil industry trading houses. Last week, the European Commission raided the offices of Shell, BP and Norway's Statoil. Global Research and Independent (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-May-13 World View -- Wave of terrorist violence in Iraq kills hundreds thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Interest in Hizb ut-Tahrir grows after Marathon bomber visited Dagestan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami (Hut - the Party of Islamic Liberation) is a pan-Islamic political party, founded in Jerusalem in 1953, which promotes the Islamic way of life in countries around the world, and speaks out against U.S. policies across the Muslim world. However, unlike al-Qaeda and some other international pro-Islamic groups, HuT publicly renounces violence, and has not been associated with terrorist acts. It views itself as an educational and cultural party that encourages mass conversions to Islam by showing that Islam reflects their real concerns, and by exposing the plans and conspiracies of others. The oppose "Islamists" like the Muslim Brotherhood who "[come] in to power with no Islam but to promote the idea of secular/civil state in line with America's wishes." Instead, their main purpose is to unite all the Islamic nations into a single Islamic state or caliphate by creating a Community of Hizb ut-Tahrir, whose members will work together like the companions of the Prophet Muhammad.
HuT has been designated as a terrorist organization by Russia and some central Asian countries, but not by the United States nor by most European countries. In addition, the last major HuT World Congress was held in the United States.
Interest in HuT has grown since it was learned that the Boston Marathon bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev met with his third cousin, Magomed Kartashov, the leader of an HuT offshoot, the Union of the Just, in Kizlyar, Dagestan, during his six-month visit to Russia. According to a Time magazine report:
"On May 5, three agents from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) ... interrogated Kartashov for the first time about the Boston bombings.... The FSB agents were interested in whether Kartashov and Tsarnaev had ever discussed Islamic radicalism. ...Kartashov told them that they had, but claimed that Tsarnaev was the one trying to "pull him in to extremism." According to his lawyer..., "Kartashov tried to talk [Tsarnaev] out of his interest in extremism."
[The story] matches the accounts of five other men in Dagestan who know Kartashov and spent time with Tsarnaev. All of them dismiss the notion that Tsarnaev was radicalized in Dagestan. Instead, the picture that emerges from their accounts is of a young man who already carried a deep interest in Islamic radicalism when he went to Russia from his home in Massachusetts. But that curiosity evolved during his visit. The members of Kartashov's circle say they tried to disabuse Tsarnaev of his sympathies for local militants. By the end of his time in Dagestan, Tsarnaev's interests seem to have shifted from the local insurgency to a more global notion of Islamic struggle -- closer to the one espoused by Kartashov's organization."
The issue of when Tsarnaev "became radicalized" has become a much-discussed question. I discussed this question at length in "20-Apr-13 World View -- Generational analysis of Boston Marathon bombings", where I wrote that he most likely developed radical attitudes towards the U.S. while he was growing up Kyrgyzstan, near the Fergana Valley. Later, as an adult living in Boston, he found a way to translate those attitudes into action. Jamestown and Vesti (Kyrgyzstan - translated) and Time and Hizb ut-Tahrir web site
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are changing policies and are increasingly willing to use live fire "if necessary" on West Bank Palestinian protesters that threaten Jewish settlements. According to the IDF, there has been an escalation in Arab attacks on Israeli civilians:
"Their brazenness has crossed the line -- they are doing what they didn't do for years, like reaching the fence of an Israeli community and throwing rocks into the community, causing injuries. ...There is a change in the decisiveness, in the determination to end this phenomenon... I hope the other side realizes that the 'silk glove treatment' is over."
In 2003 I wrote that there would be a huge new Mideast war between Jews and Arabs, refighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. (See "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" from 2003.) There have been three wars since then -- the war between Israelis and Hizbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; and Israel's military action in Gaza in November 2012. The increased use of rock-throwing by Palestinian protesters in the West Bank, triggering the use of live fire by the IDF, are part of the continuing spiral into full-scale war. Israel National News
On one side in Syria, the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are backing the opposition -- though there are different factions with ideologies ranging from Syrian nationalist to Islamic jihadist. On the other side, Russia is supporting the Bashar al-Assad regime in order to retain its influence in the Mideast, while Iran and Hezbollah are support the al-Assad regime as part of the overall conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Qatar and Russia, in particularly, are supplying arms to opposing sides, fueling the sectarian proxy war. The last great Sunni-Shia battle in the Middle East involved near-constant war between the Sunni Ottoman Empire and Iran's Shia Safavid Empire during the 16th and 17th centuries, which the Ottomans won by a small margin, ultimately securing control over Iraq.
However, Qatar's ambitions for regional hegemony go beyond Syria. Russia and Iran would like to gain greater influence in Egypt, but Qatar is using its oil wealth to provide billions of dollars in aid and loans to Egypt's government, led by the Muslim Brotherhood. Furthermore, Qatar is supporting Hamas, which recently broke with its long-time ally al-Assad and moved its headquarters from Syria's capital, Damascus, to Qatar's capital, Doha. However, critics in Egypt allege that Qatar is less interested in supporting Egypt than they are in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, providing Russia and Iran their own opportunities to gain influence. Globe and Mail (Toronto) and Gulf News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-May-13 World View -- Israel's army to begin using live fire on West Bank Palestinians thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The former girlfriend of France's president Francois Hollande returns
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
France's Socialist president Francois Hollande certainly has plenty of problems on his hands -- recession, soaring unemployment, plunging popularity, and the need to persuade the French that "there's a pilot in the plane." But now he has a new problem -- or rather an old problem that's new again. Segolene Royal, his former girlfriend of 30 years and mother of four children by him, is returning to politics, and is releasing her new book, "This Beautiful Idea of Courage." Hollande's current girlfriend, Valerie Trierweiler, stole Hollande away from Royal several years ago, and the relationship between Royal and Trierweiler has been bitter and public. Guardian (London)
For years I've been writing about the culture of fraud and extortion that began with the rise of Generation-X, and has metastasized throughout Washington and Wall Street. Now we have the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) admitting that it specifically targeted political opponents of the Obama administration, though laughably claiming that there were no political motives.
I've seen this all before -- the fatuous denials and claims of ignorance, the arrogance, the lies, the coverups, the daily bombshells of the 1970s Nixon administration -- now playing out again in the 2010s Obama administration. There's even Obamacare which, as I've written about many times, is an even more destructive economic policy than Nixon's wage-price controls, which were disastrous. (See "Obama's health plan, a proposal of economic insanity" from 2009.) As Mark Twain said, history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
I've written about the culture of fraud and extortion dozens of times, and we've seen many illustrations:
So now it turns out that the people in the IRS also have no ethical or moral standards. That was pretty obvious watching Friday's congressional testimony by acting IRS commissioner Steve Miller, who appeared to be totally lacking in ethics and morals, and was extremely high on the sleaziness scale. And to make matters worse, the IRS people, with no ethical or moral standards, will be assigned to administer Obamacare, a policy of economic insanity.
As I've suggested in the past, the mainstream press has not done President Obama any favors by being so completely credulous and so completely in the tank for Obama. Obama learned that he could commit any crime with no fear of retribution, since the NY Times and NBC News and the Associated Press would always back him completely. But now the Associated Press reporters, whose phone records were secretly obtained and scrutinized by the administration, are learning that when people are too credulous, then sooner or later they get screwed, especially in this culture of fraud and extortion. Washington Post
Banks made huge amounts of money in the 2004-2007 time frame by repackaging faulty subprime mortgage debt as fraudulent synthetic securities, and selling them to credulous investors as AAA rated, risk-free investments. Now, Citibank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are returning to those kinds of deals, starting with sales of sythethic bonds backed by subprime auto loans made to borrowers with low credit scores. Banksters have sold nearly $30 billion of these in 2013, triple the sales in the same period last year. As I keep pointing out, the same people who caused the global financial crisis are still in the same jobs, looking for new ways to defraud people. Fortune/CNN
North Korea on Saturday launched three short range guided missiles into the sea off the Korean Peninsula's east coast. The missiles did not threaten any South Korean, Japanese, or American assets. The launch of short-range missiles is considered far less dangerous than the launch of long-range missiles, as was threatened last month by North Korea. Yonhap (Seoul)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-May-13 World View -- North Korea launches three short-range missiles thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Idaho man charged with links to Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov complained about the Western press sensationalizing the shipment of heavy weapons by Russia to the region of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, which has been massively slaughtering tens of thousands of innocent civilians, including women and children. According to Lavrov:
"I don't understand why mass media are trying to make a sensation out of the fact. We do not conceal it that we supply weapons to Syria according to signed contracts, violating neither any international agreements, nor our own weapon export control legislation, one of the strictest in the world."
Lavrov said that all weapons being delivered to Syria were purely defensive, but in fact they include S-300 long-range surface to air missiles capable of shooting down incoming missiles or warplanes.
Russia is becoming increasingly contemptuous of the West's weakness in its policy in Syria. The West issues one "red line" after another, but then backs down when the red line is crossed. Meanwhile, the Russians are becoming increasingly powerful in the Mideast, with alliances with Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran. Russia Today
Lavrov's admission comes on the same day that a task force of Russian warships entered the Mediterranean for the first time in decades. The Mediterranean task force should be comprised of 10 warships and support vessels as part of several tactical groups tasked with attack, antisubmarine warfare and minesweeping. The Soviet Union maintained its 5th Mediterranean Squadron from 1967 until 1992. It was formed to counter the US Navy's 6th Fleet during the Cold War, and consisted of 30-50 warships and auxiliary vessels. Ria Novosti
In the past ten years, I've referenced the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) a number of times as a terrorist group centered in the restive Fergana Valley region of central Asia, with dreams of becoming a world-famous jihadi group like al-Qaeda, but never quite getting there. So now it turns out that federal authorities in Idaho have arrested Fazliddin Kurbanov, a 30 year old Uzbek man, and charged him with "conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization [the IMU]," "conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists," and "possession of an unregistered explosive device." Authorities did not specify whether Kurbanov allegedly conspired to carry out attacks on US soil, nor did they name his co-conspirators. Eurasia Net
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-May-13 World View -- Russian warships enter Mediterranean for first time in decades thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Nigeria's president launches major war against Boko Haram terrorists
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Barack Obama held a joint news conference in Washington on Thursday, and said the predictable things about Syria -- that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad must go, that Syria must be free, that we'll continue to pressure the al-Assad regime, blah, blah, blah. Erdogan has previously said that when he met with Obama he would provide proof that the al-Assad regime had used chemical weapons, and Obama has previously said that use of chemical weapons was a "red line" and a "game changer" that would trigger Western military intervention in Syria. However, Obama said the predictable things, that we're not really, really, really sure that chemical weapons were used, and that no military action was planned, blah, blah, blah.
The situation in Syria has been a major diplomatic victory for Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Putin is supporting al-Assad's ruthless massacre of innocent women and children, and is expressing open contempt for Western pleas not to supply S-300 surface to air missiles to Syria, to allow al-Assad to defend against Western air strikes against his stores of weapons that he uses in his bloody attacks on innocent civilians.
There's a big irony to the Syria situation, in that it's a kind of un-Iraq. President George Bush was blamed for military action in Iraq in 2003, and President Barack Obama decided that the "lesson learned" is that the U.S. should not get involved in foreign wars. More and more each day, it appears that if things continue to get worse and worse in Syria each day, then the West in general and the Obama administration in particular are going to be blamed. It's very hard to argue that Syria would be worse off today if the West had intervened right at the beginning, and each day that passes makes al-Assad stronger and more well-armed, thanks to Russia and Iran. So, Bush is blamed for intervening in Iraq, and Obama may well be blamed for NOT intervening in Syria. Such are the problems of the United States, the policeman of the world.
Having said that, it's worthwhile noting that things could change at any time. We've reported in the past about unconfirmed reports that the U.S., Turkey, Jordan and Israel are making preparations for military intervention in Syria. The horrific actions by violent psychopath Bashar al-Assad are causing pressure to increase on the West to do something - anything - to stop the carnage, a decision could be announced at any time. Zaman (Istanbul) and Jamestown
 |
Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan has declared a state of emergency in the northeast regions of Nigeria, and has ordered full-scale deployment of the army and air force to fight Boko Haram terrorists in the region. Prior to 2009, Boko Haram was a little known Muslim sect of ethnic Hausa people, but since that time, they've established a linking with al-Qaeda. Starting in 2010, Boko Haram began a series of terrorist attacks across the country, often bombing Christian churches. In the last year, Boko Haram has announced the intention to establish an Islamist state in Nigeria's northeast. There have been a number of major clashes between the army and Boko Haram, especially around Maiduguri in the Hausa region, where the Boko Haram fighters are indistinguishable from ordinary civilians. The result of these clashes is that hundreds of civilians were killed and their homes burned down and destroyed, with no clear idea whether it was the army or Boko Haram that did the most damage and killed the most innocent civilians. Thus, the new military action is highly controversial in Nigeria, with many fearing that it will mean that the army's heavy weapons and the air force's bombs will kill a lot of civilians, but won't do much to end the Boko Haram threat.
The rise of Boko Haram from a terrorist group to a well-armed militia is another unintended consequence of the West's military intervention in Libya in 2011. The Libyan action provided a training ground for Islamist jihadists, and also provided vast stores of heavy weapons stolen from Muammar Gaddafi's unguarded storehouses. The result has been a major al-Qaeda linked militia in northern Mali, and terrorist attacks across northern Africa, from Algeria to Egypt. Tribune (Nigeria) and PM News (Nigeria) and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-May-13 World View -- Obama and Turkey PM Erdogan hold bizarre press conference thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Eurozone recession deepens even further than forecast
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Ignoring bitter opposition from Russia and Syria, the United Nations General Assembly approved a non-binding resolution condemning the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for using heavy military weapons on civilians, and for systematic violations of human rights.
Syria's permanent Envoy to the UN Bashar al-Jaafari addressed the General Assembly with a bitter attack on the Arab League, which sponsored the current resolution and which, in the past, has expelled the Syrian government representative from the Arab League and replace it with a representative of the opposition:
"Giving Syria's seat to the al-Doha [Qatar] coalition in the Arab League and the attempt to get the UN involved by giving a [delusional] representation to its aim at breaking off the road in front of the solution to the crisis and tearing down the Syrian state.We bring your attention to the destructive role of the Arab League, led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia in addition to Turkey against Syria as the Arab League has given legitimacy to provide the terrorists with weapons."
The Saudi envoy responded by repeating many of the horrors that the al-Assad inflicted on innocent civilians -- from bloody massacres of peaceful protesters to mass slaughter of innocent students in their college dormitories while they were asleep.
The General Assembly approved the measure by a vote of 107 to 12, with 45 member states abstaining. The "yes" vote was a lot lower than the vote last August on a similar resolution, where 133 states voted "yes". According to some analysts, the reason that fewer states supported the resolution this time is because many of them are beginning to believe that with help from Russia and Iran, al-Assad is going to win the war, war crimes and all.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that expectation is not realistic. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, and the young Sunni fighters are not going to capitulate to the Shia Alawite regime. VOA and Al-Jazeera
On Wednesday, Palestinians all over the world commemorated the 65th anniversary of the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 -- a day that they refer to as Youm al-Nakba or "Day of Catastrophe." The speeches and protests and demonstrations demanded a "right of return" to lands acquired by Israel in 1948 and 1967, and full recognition of Palestine as a nation. In the West Bank, demonstrators clashed with Israeli police, resulting in 75 injuries and 25 Palestinian arrests. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Jerusalem Post
Taiwan has rejected as "insincere" an apology from the president of the Philippines for the Thursday's accidental shooting of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippines coast guard in a disputed region of the South China Sea. In response to increased anti-Philippine nationalism in the Taiwanese public, Taiwan has issued a travel warning telling citizens not to visit the Philippines, has frozen Philippine applications for work permits in Taiwan, and is carrying out military exercises in the disputed region of the South China Sea. BBC
The eurozone economy shrank more than economists forecast in the first quarter of 2013. There have now been six consecutive quarters of recession, a record. The recession is now affecting even the so-called "core nations." The German economy, Europe's largest, did expand, but less than forecast. France's economy went into a recession, adding to the political troubles of the Socialist president Francois Hollande. Euro zone unemployment has reached a record 12.1% as governments increase taxes and cut spending to contain public deficits. Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-May-13 World View -- Palestinians commemorate 'Al Nakba' -- 'The Catastrophe' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Russia rebuffs West on S-300 missile shipments to Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Russia has declared US diplomat Ryan Fogle "persona non grata" and ordered to be deported, after he was arrested for allegedly spying for the U.S. This could be a movie. He was arrested wearing a blue checked shirt, a baseball cap, and an ill-fitting blonde wig, and carried a letter offering $1 million for unidentified secret information to a Russian recruit, a counter-terrorism officer who specializes in the Caucasus. Usually, spy scandals are kept relatively quiet by all the nations involved, but in this case the Russians are making a very big deal of it, releasing photos and interviews to the Russian press. BBC
The fact that the Russians made the CIA spy scandal such a high profile event is probably a way for Russia's president Vladimir Putin to send a message.
It's well-known that Putin is still furious over what happened in Libya. Putin went along with a United Nations Security Council resolution for a no-fly zone over Libya, and then it turned into a major military operation to bring down Russia's ally, Muammar Gaddafi. Putin has vowed never to let anything like that happen again, particularly not in Syria.
Putin is also said to be angry that Russia is being blamed for the Boston Marathon terrorist attacks, since the perpetrators were from the Caucasus. In Syria, Putin has expressed opposition to any Western moves to send weapons or even humanitarian aid to Syrian forces opposing president Bashar al-Assad.
In the meantime, we've been having these silly dog and pony shows put on by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry running around saying that we're going to reach agreement with the Russians, to bring a political solution to the Syria crisis. So, one possibility is that Putin made this CIA spy scandal such a high profile event in order to get some revenge against the Americans, and also to illuminate the weakness of the West in Syria negotiations.
For Russia, the bottom line regarding the Syria crisis is that a ruler has the right to use military force to secure stability in his domain and the responsibility to crush a revolution of any color at whatever cost -- the same policy that's followed in both Russia and China. Jamestown
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to Sochi, Russia, on Tuesday to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to warn him against sending arms to Syria, especially S-300 surface-to-air missiles that are capable of shooting down Israeli planes. Instead, in a statement regarded as a warning to the West to stay out of Syria, Putin said, "In this crucial period, it is especially important to avoid any moves that can shake the situation." It's thought that he was specifically warning against a repeat of last week's Israeli warplane bombing of weapons sites in Damascus, the capital of Syria. However, according to one analyst, that message was rejected by Netanyahu, who let Putin know that Israel would destroy the S-300s when they arrived. AFP and Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-May-13 World View -- American-Russian relations upset by CIA spy scandal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Pakistan celebrates election, but faces continued chaos
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Voters ignored terrorist threats in Pakistan on Saturday, and turned out in historically large numbers for a historically important election: The first election in Pakistan's history leading to a peaceful transition from one civilian government to another. Hopes are high that the winner, Nawaz Sharif, will keep his campaign promises to eliminate corruption from the government, will restore the economy, and will end terrorist attacks by the al-Qaeda linked Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan branch of the Taliban.
However, an Indian analyst says that the optimism is misplaced, and points to the following:
The last point is particularly relevant to the generational analysis of President Barach Obama's military "surge" into Afghanistan in 2009, with the intent of duplicating the success of President Bush's "surge" strategy into Iraq in 2007. However, as I've written several times in the past, the generational situation in Afghanistan is very different than in Iraq, and there are significant differences that will prevent the surge strategy from working there. (See "2-Sep-12 World View -- U.S. decision on Haqqani Network will affect Pakistan relations")
The Taliban are Sunni Pashtun militants. Even if they are inclined to live peacefully in Afghanistan after the Americans leave, the Sunni Pashtun Taliban (the TTP) just across the border in Pakistan will not let them. That's why the last point above is an important part of the chaos in Pakistan.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the biggest and most important difference between Iraq and Afghanistan is that Iraq's last generational crisis war was an external war (the Iran/Iraq war, 1980-88), while Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was a bloody, genocidal civil war (1991-96). That's why the "surge" could work in Iraq, but not in Afghanistan: No negotiations will heal the animosity between the Pashtuns and the Hazaras, who tortured, mutilated, raped and killed each other less than 20 years ago.
Finally, as I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that Pakistan and India are headed for a major war re-fighting the bloody 1947 war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition, the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India. BBC and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)
The Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers approved on Monday the conditional release of Greece's next two bailout installments, totaling 7.5 billion euros. Greece will receive 4.2 billion euros later this week, pending final approval. But the next payment of 3.3 billion euro installment, scheduled for the end of June, will not be paid unless Greece's government first fires 2,000 civil servants, as part of a previous commitment to reform the civil service. What's going on here is that the Europeans are no longer willing just to an entire loan payment, 7.5 billion euros in this case. Instead, the Europeans are splitting up the loan tranches into "sub-tranches," and requiring fulfillment of specific commitments, such as civil service firings, for each one. This is not making the public happy, and so Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras is attempting to quell public answer by promising that Greece's economy will improve so much by early 2014, that they can return to the public bond market again, and start borrowing money again and spending it as much as ever. This is the same kind of promise that the Europeans have been making every quarter for the last four years. I don't know how many Greeks believe in the tooth fairy, but that kind of credulity would be required to believe Samaras. Kathimerini and Reuters
Greece's government has compiled an 80-page report making the case to demand World War II reparations from Germany. Stories of Nazi atrocities and war crimes are now being widely reported and discussed, in particular the mass slaughter of 498 men on December 13, 1943, in one of the worst crimes of the war. In addition, the report demands repayment of a loan that the Nazis forced the Greeks to make during the war, but never repaid. The total demand may be as high as 162 billion euros, which would allow Greece to pay off its debts. This would be a total disaster for Greece, because it would gorge itself on money and be in worse debt than ever before long.
However, the Germans point out that the Greeks defrauded the European Central Bank and the European Union when it joined the euro in 2001, reporting fraudulent deficit figures. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-May-13 World View -- Greece's government prepares to demand war reparations from Germany thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Millions of Chinese internet users vow not to commit suicide
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The new Pope Francis on Sunday canonized over 800 "Martyrs of Otranto" as saints, the largest such action in the history of the Catholic Church. At the same time, two Latin American nuns became saints.
The 1480 Battle of Otranto was ordered by Muslim Ottoman forces under the command of Sultan Mehmet II, known as Mehmet the Conqueror. At age 21, on May 29, 1453, Mehmet had led the successful capture of the city of Constantinople (now Istanbul, Turkey), possibly the most globally significant battle of the last millennium, as it ended the Christian Byzantine Empire and began the Ottoman domination of the entire region. In 1480, Mehmet acted to destroy the Roman Empire once and for all by capturing Rome, and then all of Italy. Mehmet's armada landed in Otranto in the "heel" of Italy's "boot" on July 29, 1480. The citizens of Otranto, with the tales of horror of the fall of Constantinople still fresh in their minds, realized that they were vastly outnumbered, and surrendered. According to Catholic accounts, the Ottomans segregated the women and children, who became slaves, from the men. Some 800 men were ordered to convert to Islam. They refused, and proclaimed that they would die for Christ. On August 14, 1480, the men were beaten and decapitated, one by one, in full view of the others, and then put into a mass grave. According to Catholic history, not only did they become martyrs, but their actions were a miracle, because they also saved Rome from capture by the Ottomans, since they forced a delay that gave the Italian troops in Rome time to prepare. Mehmet the Conqueror died on May 3, 1481, and is thought to have been poisoned.
Not surprisingly, parts of the Catholic accounts are disputed by Muslim scholars, who describe the actions of Mehmet much more charitably, both in Otranto and in Constantinople. Of significance today is that Muslims view this mass canonization as a new anti-Islam attack by the Catholics. And that may indeed have been the intention of Francis' predecessor, Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, who formally approved the canonization of the 800 -- and did so on the very last day of his papacy, leaving the job to be completed by Pope Francis. Catholic.com and Guardian (London)
Taiwan on Sunday dispatched four warships to patrol waters in the South China Sea near the Philippines, in response to public outrage over the Thursday's shooting of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippines coast guard, who claim that the Taiwanese boat was threatening to ram them. Taiwan has issued an ultimatum that unless the Philippines apologizes and provides compensation for the victim's family, then Taiwan will refuse any further work applications from Filipinos to work in Taiwan -- a serious threat because of the Philippines' unemployment problem.
The dispute has increased nationalist tensions on both sides, and has turned into a cyberwar. On Friday, hackers in each country began attacking government sites in the other country. The cyberattacks are increasing what are already fairly high tensions. AFP and GMA Network (Philippines)
Since 1999, there have been substantial increases in the suicide rates of United States adults aged 35-64. The three most common suicide mechanisms were firearms (i.e., penetrating injury or gunshot wound from a weapon using a powder charge to fire a projectile), poisoning (predominantly drug overdose), and suffocation (predominantly hanging). The suicide rate for men aged 35-64 years increased 27.3%, and the rate for women increased 31.5%. Among whites, the rate for women increased 41.9%, and the rate for men increased 39.6%. Firearms and suffocation were the most common mechanisms for men, whereas poisoning and firearms were the most common mechanisms for women. Possible contributing factors for the rise in suicide rates include the recent economic downturn (historically, suicide rates tend to correlate with business cycles, with higher rates observed during times of economic hardship); a cohort effect, based on evidence that the Boomer generation had unusually high suicide rates during their adolescent years; and a rise in intentional overdoses associated with the increase in availability of prescription opioids. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
In the last few days, millions of Chinese internet users have posted online pledges not to commit suicide:
"I will never commit suicide. If I die unexpectedly, I was killed by others and the police should investigate the crime."
The pledges are actually an anti-government protest, following the suspicious death of Yuan Liya, a young clothing store worker in Beijing. The rumors are that she was gang-raped by security guards and thrown off a high balcony, but police ruled the death a suicide. Angry protesters demanded an investigation, but they were quickly silenced by hordes of police. Deaths by "forced suicide" are thought to be quite common in China, as police use the technique to silence activists. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-May-13 World View -- Pope Francis canonizes 800 Otranto 'martyrs' of Ottoman army thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Nawaz Sharif appears to be the winner in Pakistan's elections
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
At least 45 people were killed and hundreds injured by two massive car bombs that exploded on Saturday in the Turkish town of Reyhanli. Reyhanli is on the border with Syria, and has an Arabic-speaking Sunni Muslim population, which has been a draw for both anti-regime Syrian refugees and also as headquarters for NGOs and aid groups operating in Syria. According to Turkey's deputy prime minister, the assailants were linked to Syria's intelligence service, al-Mukhabarat:
"We have to a great extent completed our work toward identifying the assailants. We have established that the organization and assailants have links to the pro-regime al-Mukhabarat (Syrian intelligence) organization."
There are now some 400,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey, and many of them have been flooding into Reyhanli, resulting in friction between citizens and refugees. One possibility is that the intended effect of the bombings was to worsen relationships between the two groups, and indeed many refugees are fleeing from Reyhanli, fearing attacks by citizens who blame the refugees for bringing the bombings.
Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu vowed that Turkey would act:
"Those who for whatever reason attempt to bring the external chaos into our country will get a response."
However, these kinds of statements are similar to those we hear all the time from politicians in Turkey, in Washington, and in Europe. Repeatedly making one "red line" ultimatum after another, but then doing nothing after the red line is crossed except to announce a new red line only destroys the credibility of the West, and causes the al-Assad regime, as well as Russia and Iran, to treat any such statements with contempt. Zaman (Istanbul) and BBC
 |
Attempts by Pakistan's Taliban to use terrorist violence across the country to disrupt Pakistan's elections on Saturday killed 15 people, but did not prevent millions of people from voting in the first election in Pakistan's history that would lead to a peaceful transition from one civilian government to another, resulting in the highest election turnout in decades.
Official results will be announced on Sunday, but former two-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif declared victory on Saturday evening, based on a partial vote count. This is considered a remarkable comeback for Sharif, who was overthrown and forced into exile in a military coup when Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999. Sharif vowed to deliver on all the promises he made during the campaign -- to end the electric power cuts, sometimes lasting 18 hours per day; to turn around the devastated economy; and to end the corruption of the current government.
The second place candidate was former world cricket champion and international playboy Imran Khan, who was the "hope and change" candidate. Khan beat Sharif in some regions, and won the vote among younger voters, but lost to Sharif because he had almost no government experience.
From America's point of view, the major question is whether Pakistan's policies towards America's "war on terror" and drone strikes will change. Khan was very vehement in promising to end all Pakistani participation in America's involvement in Afghanistan. Nawaz has said similar things, but not nearly as vehemently. AFP and CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-May-13 World View -- Turkey blames Syrian regime for terrorist bombings in border town thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
IRS admits Nixon-like targeting taxpayers for political purposes
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
After a four-day "vacation," Generational Dynamics World View is resuming publication.
 |
The al-Qaeda linked Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan branch of the Taliban, has announced its intention to launch terrorist attacks all across Pakistan on Saturday, in order to disrupt the presidential elections. The elections are considered historic, since they'll mark the first time in Pakistan's history that there has been a peaceful transition from one civilian government to another. Already, more than 100 people have been killed in terrorist violence in the days leading up to the election. The TTP have been particularly targeting the "secular" or Shia political parties, while leaving alone the Islamist anti-American parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif and the Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party of Imran Khan. On Thursday, a son of former prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani was kidnapped and two of his aides killed.
Nawaz Sharif is expected to win the election, but with millions of new voters, anything might happen. Pakistanis are desperately looking for a "hope and change" candidate who could solve all their problems in a moment, and Imran Khan, the former world cricket champion and international playboy, has been advertising himself as that candidate. However, in a stroke of fate, Khan was hospitalized early this week after a campaign appearance where he accidentally took a hard fall and fractured a rib and damaged three vertebrae, forcing him to give one final televised campaign appearance from his hospital bed. Whether this will sink his campaign, or conversely, whether he'll get a big sympathy vote, is something we may learn on Saturday. Daily Times (Pakistan) and BBC
Philippine authorities admitted on Friday that one of their coast guard ships opened fire on a Taiwanese ship on Thursday, saying that their only intention was to disable the ship, which was threatening to ram the Philippines ship. Both ships were within overlapping 200-mile economic exclusion zones (EEZs) of Taiwan and the Philippines. However, one Taiwanese fisherman was killed in the incident, and both China and Taiwan are protesting the killing. China has repeatedly made it clear that they are going to use their vast military power to take control of the entire South China Sea, including several regions that have historically belonged to other countries, following a policy similar to Hitler's "Lebensraum" policy. They've announced that they intend to begin boarding and seizing control of other countries' ships in the South China Sea. The Chinese are supporting the Taiwanese in this incident, because China has also indicated that it intends to take control of Taiwan. LA Times
There are over 500,000 refugees from Syria flooding Jordan, most of them women and children. But aid organizations do not have enough money to fully support these refugees, so in order to make the money to feed their children, many of the women are opting for short-term marriages in exchange for several hundred dollars. "The men are usually between 50 and 80, and they ask for girls who have white skin and blue or green eyes. They want them very young, no older than 16," according to one marriage broker. BBC
Gun control farce reached new heights on Friday when the U.S. State Department ordered Cody Wilson, head of Texas nonprofit Defense Distributed, to remove from its web site the blueprints (CAD file) for the successful manufacture of a gun using an $8,000 3D printer.
When I wrote about gun control and 3D printing in December, I pointed out that there's no evidence that prohibitions in the past -- of alcohol, drugs, abortion and prostitution -- had any actual effect, but they had a large negative effect of creating bootleggers, organized crime, drug cartels and prostitution rings. Gun control has already produced huge unintended consequences in the form of would-be gun owners buying up all the guns and ammunition they can find, for fear of losing the opportunity.
The other unintended consequence is the enormous interest in 3D printers, which can manufacture small objects of all kinds. Thanks to the spur given by the farcical gun-control debate, we can soon expect to see thousands of gun manufacturers in garages and basements across the country.
This reminds me of the 1971 book by Abbie Hoffman, Steal This Book. The book contains instructions on everything from getting free abortions to using a shotgun to hiding from the law. Many attempts were made to prevent publication of the book, but when it finally was published, it made it on to the NY Times Best Seller list.
So with all the publicity for John Cody's CAD files for 3D printing guns, it's not surprising that the blueprints have already been downloaded 100,000 times. The files may have been removed from John Cody's web site, but they appear to be freely available on the Pirate Bay file sharing site. AFP and The Pirate Bay and Abbie Hoffman - Steal This Book
February jobless figures are out for Greece, and they show that the jobless rate expanded to 27%, up from 21.9% a year earlier. Worse, almost two in every three young people aged up to 24 years are jobless as the unemployment rate for that age group reached 64.2 percent in February. Kathimerini
The Internal Revenue Service on Friday acknowledged that it flagged political groups with "tea party" or "patriot" in their names for special scrutiny when they applied for tax-exempt status, repeating the kind of actions that were in the impeachment charges that forced former president Richard Nixon to resign.
This comes on the same day that some members of the mainstream media are turning against President Barack Obama over the lies and coverup in the Benghazi matter. President Nixon was forced to resign because of a coverup of the Watergate matter, where nobody was killed, while four people were killed in the Benghazi matter. This is an administration whose members believe that they can break any law or say any falsehood and get away with it because the mainstream media has always been totally in the tank for Obama, and would always find some way to support him. Friday's turnaround could be politically significant. Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-May-13 World View -- Taliban promises bloodbath during Saturday's Pakistan elections thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
World View will be suspended until Thursday or Friday
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Life is interfering with the "World View" schedule, and so it will be suspended for a few days. I hope for World View to resume on Thursday or Friday (May 9/10). In the meantime, I request of world leaders that they not make any major news until then, and in particular that they wait until the end of the week before starting any major new wars.
 |
One of the most impressive celebrations in the world is performed each year on Orthodox Easter Sunday in Orthodox Christian churches around the world. Worshippers enter the church with an unlit candle. At midnight, the priest repeats the "miracle" of holy fire by producing a fire from the altar, lighting a candle with it. Thousands of Orthodox Christians fill Jerusalem's ancient Church of the Holy Sepulchre, , believed to be the site of the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, as well as surrounding streets, for the Easter "Holy Fire" ceremony, which symbolizes the resurrection of Jesus Christ. In Athens, worshippers fill all the streets, and the holy fire ceremony lights up the entire city with candlelight. The ceremony dates back to the fourth century, and possibly as early as the first century. HolyFire.org and Russia Today
For four years, Chinese hackers stole gigabytes of trade secrets and classified military secrets from top-level defense contractor QinetiQ Group plc, including detailed information and software source code for highly sensitive weapons-systems technology and advanced robotic systems. An investigation shows that QinetiQ (pronounced like "kinetic") ignored one warning sign after another, and treated each one as an isolated incident. In fact, thousands of computers in every part of the organization were compromised in a systematic manner from 2007 to 2010.
A February report by American computer security company Mandiant provides forensic proof that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been systematically conducting cyberwar against American government and corporate organizations. In particular, the PLA's "Unit 61398," working out of a building in Shanghai, gains control of a company's network, retains control in stealth mode, and downloads all the data in the network over a period of months, sometimes terabytes of data. (See "20-Feb-13 World View -- New report reveals massive cyber war attack by China's army")
According to cybersecurity analyst Richard Clarke:
"God forbid we get into a conflict with China but if we did we could face a major embarrassment, where we try out all these sophisticated weapons systems and they don;t work."
In case of a war with China, the phrase "major embarrassment" would be a massive understatement.
Readers may be interested in knowing that my web site, GenerationalDynamics.com has been under a continuous low-level DDOS attack by Chinese hackers for many months, and suffered a major hacking attack several weeks ago that required me to restructure the entire web site. Since there's absolutely nothing of value on my web site except what's available on publicly available web pages, I have to assume that someone in China is just screwing with me for the hell of it. But it does prove one thing -- if an insignificant nobody like me is worthy of attack by Chinese hackers, then any web site is worthy of attack by Chinese hackers.
Several people have asked me what's happened to the RSS feed, and that's the explanation. My web site has almost 4,000 pages, of which I've brought back over 3,500 in the restructuring, but I haven't yet had the time to restore the RSS feed. I strongly recommend that all readers subscribe to the daily World View e-mail subscription:
http://www.generationalDynamics.com/Subscribe
Then you'll receive each day's column in e-mail, and you won't need the RSS feed. Bloomberg
Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad said on Sunday that Israel's repeated airstrikes on facilities near Damascus constituted an Israeli "declaration of war," and he claimed that the air strikes conclusively demonstrated the alliance between "the terrorists, infidels and Zionists" fighting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Israel is officially not commenting on the air strikes, but unnamed Israeli officials say that the air strikes were targeting a shipment of Iranian made Fatah-110 missiles on their way from Syria to Hezbollah terrorists. However, Israel is openly preparing for retaliation by re-deploying the Iron Dome anti-missile system, and closing air space in the north of Israel.
There is a sense in which the Syria conflict has politically turned against the opposition in the last few days. The main factor was the announcement by the Jabhat al-Nusra ("Victory Battlefront") anti-Assad group of rebels that it's linked to al-Qaeda and is supported by al-Qaeda in Iraq. This has given credibility to the claim that his regime been fighting terrorists, even though his regime has in fact targeted tens of thousands of innocent civilians, including children in their bedrooms and dormitories. It's also made the West increasingly nervous about supporting the opposition rebels, because any supplied weapons might fall into the hands of al-Qaeda terrorists. In fact, it's believed that Israeli officials want al-Assad to remain in power, since they fear that any replacement would be worse.
There's also a political message from Israel to Washington and the West. There's a growing sense of contempt in many quarters that Western leaders, particularly president Barack Obama, are quick to make one "red line" ultimatum after another, but then do nothing after the red line is crossed, except to announce a new red line. Israel's message is that it is not in the same category as other Western countries, and that it's willing to take action, even if doing so risks a regional escalation in the war.
In the meantime, there have been unconfirmed reports that Iran is supplying thousands of troops to the al-Assad regime, and they're working with the Hezbollah militia to defeat the opposition. Times of Israel and Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-May-13 World View -- Israeli air strike on Damascus escalates Syria crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Libor banker fraud may be eclipsed by the ISDAfix fraud
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Long-time readers are well aware of the Generational Dynamics prediction that the world is headed for a major global financial panic and crisis, causing all bubbles to implode, including the stock market, commodity and gold bubbles. It's impossible to predict when that will happen, or what event will trigger the panic, but every once in a while I try to point out a time when things look particularly dangerous.
One of those times is now. A couple of months ago, I warned that the stock market was rising rapidly and becoming dangerously parabolic. That parabolic rise is continuing. The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (also called "valuations") was at 18.45 on Friday morning, according to the Wall Street Journal. Friday's huge stock market surge spiked the P/E ratio up to 18.63 by the end of the day -- above the extremely high levels that it reached during the massive real estate and credit bubble of the 2006-2007 time period. The S&P 500 P/E ratio has been above its historical average (14) continuously since 1995, and by the Law of Mean Reversion will crash to around 6 or lower, as it last did in 1982, and stock prices will fall proportionately.
According to my Dow Jones historical page, the market is now at 218% of its current long-term historical trend line value of 6838. This is an extremely high bubble level, though not as high as the 264% that it reached on the peak on October 8, 2007. However, this may indicate that the new parabolic bubble may surge even further before crashing.
To say that there is no rational explanation for this parabolic stock market spike is an understatement. China's economy is slowing, and Europe's economy is going down the tubes, while America's economy is about to be hit by the Obamacare train wreck and financial disaster.
The major factor causing the stock market spike is the Fed's "printing" of $85 billion per month of new liquidity for banks. According to mainstream "economists," that money should be going out as loans to individuals and small businesses, which it is not. Instead, that money is making its way to investment bankers and wealthy investors who are using the money to expand the stock market bubble. (See my report in 17-Apr-13 World View for how wealthy investors can borrow millions of dollars from Interactive Brokers at 1.3% interest and then invest the money in the stock market.)
A second reason why money is pouring into Wall Street is apparently that many investors are fleeing Europe. The Cyprus bailout, which confiscated 60% of the assets of wealthy investors, and the statements of European politicians that it could happen again, is frightening large investors into taking their money out of European banks, according to some reports, and some of this money is reaching Wall Street.
It used to be that I was advising (American) readers to keep their money in FDIC insured bank accounts, and that's probably still the best bet, though if you live in a house with a safe basement, you may wish to keep some cash hidden behind a loose brick. Some people suggest "investing" your money on self-defense and survival type items, everything from food to weapons.
The Cyprus bailout shows what happens when politicians become desperate. Three months ago, confiscating 60% of bank accounts was so completely unthinkable that the mere suggestion would have drawn contemptuous laughter. But now it's a fact. What will the politicians in the Obama administration do when they become desperate? It's impossible to predict, but it's certainly clear that nothing is off the table.
I was amused by the beginning of Mike Taibbi's story in Rolling Stone:
"Conspiracy theorists of the world, believers in the hidden hands of the Rothschilds and the Masons and the Illuminati, we skeptics owe you an apology. You were right. The players may be a little different, but your basic premise is correct: The world is a rigged game. We found this out in recent months, when a series of related corruption stories spilled out of the financial sector, suggesting the world's largest banks may be fixing the prices of, well, just about everything."
Well, I'm certainly not a conspiracy theorist, nor have I ever blamed the Rothschilds, Masons or Illuminati, nor have I ever said that the world was a rigged game. What I HAVE said is that many Generation-Xers, united in their hatred of the Boomer generation of their parents, got masters degrees in "financial engineering" in the 1990s, and then went into the big banks and purposely created tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent securities. And I've said that journalists like Taibbi paint these financial engineers as innocent victims, and that nobody in the Obama administration, which receives huge campaign contributions from the banksters, is willing to prosecute these criminals. And I've related this generational behavior to generational hatreds in other places and times. (See "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust".)
So now Taibbi is changing his mind and apologizing, as he comes to understand what I said years ago: That the same people are still in the same jobs in the same banks, looking for new ways to defraud people. He's just discovered a new form of fraud, many times larger than the Libor fraud. The Libor fraud affected possibly tens of trillions of dollars in loan agreements, as banksters manipulated the rates so that they could make as much money as possible. But the IDSAfix is a number computed by a similar process, but it affects HUNDREDS of trillions of dollars in interest rate swaps. The banksters manipulated IDSAfix rates fraudulently for their own financial gain.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating ISDAfix rate fraud, but don't expect the Obama administration to prosecute anyone, no matter how massive the fraud. Campaign contributions from banks are just too lucrative. Rolling Stone / Mike Taibbi and Bloomberg
Orthodox Jewish women are not permitted to apply makeup on the Sabbath, and so they buy "24-hour" makeup and apply it the afternoon before, so they'll look fabulous all day. Rorie Weisberg, an Orthodox Jewish woman from Monsey, New York, is suing L'Oreal, claiming that the company's Lancome foundation Teint Idole Ultra 24H "faded significantly" overnight. Weisberg was testing out the makeup in preparation for her eldest son's bar mitzvah in June. Times of Israel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-May-13 World View -- Wall Street stock market continues dangerous parabolic bubble thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
California law will fund seizure of legally purchased guns
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The UK Independence Party (UKIP) won a stunning victory in local elections, winning over 26% of the vote in those districts in which a UKIP candidate ran. The party, which favors withdrawal of Britain from the European Union, took votes away from the ruling coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, as well as from the opposition Labor party. According to jubilant UKIP leader Nigel Farage:
"We have always done well in European elections [where UKIP has 11 seats in the EU Parliament]..., but people haven’t seen us as being relevant to local elections or in some ways general elections. So for us to be scoring, on average, 26 per cent of the vote where we stand is I think very significant indeed."
This is part of a trend that's dissolving Europe's traditional left-of-center / center / right-of-center parliamentary democracy, in favor of fringe parties and protest movements. In Greece and Italy, the dissolution has already occurred. In France, Marine Le Pen and the National Front party is campaigning against "Islamization" and the euro. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) has done well on a strongly anti-Islamist platform. Belgium, Hungary, Denmark, Sweden, and Austria have also seen the rise of parties that are anti-immigration or anti-euro or both. The Sun (London) and BBC
For several years, it's been reported that America's largest "bunker buster" bomber was not powerful enough to reach and destroy Iran's Fordo nuclear enrichment complex, which is buried under a mountain near the Iranian city of Qom. But the Pentagon has shown Israeli leaders an Air Force video of a new version of the bunker buster capable of destroying Frodo. The 30,000-pound "Massive Ordnance Penetrator," or MOP, has adjusted fuses to maximize its burrowing power, upgraded guidance systems to improve its precision and high-tech equipment intended to allow it to evade Iranian air defenses in order to reach and destroy Fordo. The specific political purpose of the demonstration is to dissuade the Israelis from conducting a unilateral attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Ynet and Debka
Intelligence reports in Washington indicate that Israel has staged air strikes on targets within Syria. Lebanon's army web site is listing at least 16 flights by Israeli warplanes over Lebanon's air space. It's believed that the air strikes targets Syrian weapons that are being transferred to the Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. It's believed that conventional weapons (as opposed to chemical weapons) were targeted. CNN and CBS News
California's governor Jerry Brown has signed legislation that will allocate $24 million to hire special agents that will track down and seize guns from 20,000 Californians who have legally purchased guns, but who have been disqualified from owning them due to mental illness or a criminal conviction. According to one legislator, "We are fortunate in California to have the first and only system in the nation that tracks and identifies individuals who at one time made legal purchases of firearms but are now barred from possessing them." Russia Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-May-13 World View -- Anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) surges in local elections thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Turkey's Erdogan will pressure Obama to intervene militarily in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Syrian opposition leaders are denouncing the "threats" by Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanon's Iran-backed Shia terrorist group Hezbollah. Nasrallah declared on television on Tuesday that Hezbollah was already active militarily in Syria, and that Hezbollah and possibly Iran would intervene further if necessary to prevent the downfall of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. According to Nasrallah:
"Syria has real friends in the region and the world that will not let Syria fall in the hands of America, Israel or Takfiri [Salafist Sunni] groups. They will not let this happen.We tell you that you [rebels] are unable to topple the regime through military means. After two years and based on facts on the field ... you have no ability to do so. This is the case when you are now only fighting the Syrian army and the popular forces loyal to the [government]. Up to this moment there are no Iranian forces in Syria.
What if dangerous developments occur, forcing states or resistance groups to step in the field in Syria? Whoever wants to save Syria ... feels sad for the daily bloodshed in Syria ... and does not want the Palestinian cause to be lost ... should push for dialogue and a political compromise."
The remarks were denounced by the Syrian National Council (SNC) leaders, who said that they had "hoped" that Nasrallah would act more responsibly, but they "have heard nothing but threats." Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Arabiya (Dubai)
During an upcoming visit by Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Washington, Erdogan will tell Obama that "it is clear" that the al-Assad regime is using chemical weapons. He said on Thursday:
"We will discuss the issue of chemical weapons with US President Barack Obama during my visit to the US. It is clear that [chemical weapons] are being used by Assad's regime. The opposition outmatches the regime on the ground, but the regime uses chemical weapons, war planes and helicopters. Air is the only field in which the regime is ahead of the opposition."
This is Turkey's first official confirmation that Syria has used chemical weapons, and Erdogan is pressing for Western military intervention in Syria. Zaman (Istanbul) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
With the new bad economic data coming out of Europe almost on a daily basis, the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi announced a lower interest rate of 0.5%, the lowest in its history.
Draghi had resisted lowering the interest rate because of fear of inflation. But the inflation rate in the eurozone has fallen sharply in the eurozone during the past month, so Draghi felt that a lower interest rate was justified. It's worth pausing a moment here to point out again that for the last ten years I've been predicting a global deflationary spiral during this generational Crisis era, while mainstream economists and various politicians and pundits have been predicting high or hyper inflation, and that they've been consistently wrong ahd I've been consistently right.
The second reason that Draghi has resisted lower the interest rate was because there was no reason to believe it would do any good. The ECB has pumped trillions of dollars into the banking system, allowing eurozone member nations to go even more deeply into debt at cheap rates, and artificially boosting stock prices as all that liquidity pours into the stock market. But none of the money is being loaned to individuals or businesses, so the overall economy is not being helped (which is what Generational Dynamics has been predicting).
So now Draghi wants to try something else: Make interest rates negative for money that individual banks deposit with the central bank (the ECB). That deposit rate has been zero for a while, but now Draghi is considering charging money to banks that want to deposit money in the ECB. The reasoning is that if an individual bank can't deposit its extra cash in the ECB, then it might loan it out to private individuals or businesses (which Generational Dynamics says won't happen). A negative interest rate is a sign of an accelerating deflationary spiral, since it means that cash is actually becoming more valuable with time, rather than increasingly worthless, as the inflation pundits have been claiming. Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-May-13 World View -- European Central Bank considers negative interest rates thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
U.S. declares H7N9 bird flu a 'significant' public health danger
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In Jakarta, Indonesia, some of the tens of thousands of demonstrators marching through the city came dressed as ants -- complete with bright red outfits and antennae -- to depict the exploitation of workers.
Across Europe, May Day demonstrators protested against austerity that has dramatically increased unemployment and dramatically reduced benefits.
In Greece, public sector workers walked off the job in a one-day strike. In France, marchers carried banners protesting Socialist party president Francois Hollande saying, "Where are the real socialists in our government?"
Probably the greatest labor anger on this May 1 took place in Dhaka, Bangladesh, the site of a multi-story clothing factory that pancaked and collapsed last week, killing thousands of workers. Across Asia, workers are protesting poor building standards enforcement, and the fact that similar disasters could happen at any time. Activists in the UK have been wearing tee shirts saying, "A woman died in Bangladesh so that I could wear this shirt." CS Monitor
With the continued spread and high death rate of the H7N9 bird flu in China, America's department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is authorizing the use of previously unauthorized diagnostic procedures. According to HHS:
"The Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) is issuing this notice pursuant to section 564(b) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic (FD) Act.... On April 19, 2013, the Secretary determined that there is a significant potential for a public health emergency that has a significant potential to affect national security or the health and security of United States citizens living abroad and that involves the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus.On the basis of this determination, she also declared that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of in vitro diagnostics for detection of the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus pursuant.... The Secretary also specified that this declaration is a declaration of an emergency with respect to in vitro diagnostics as defined under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act Declaration for Pandemic Influenza Diagnostics, Personal Respiratory Protection Devices, and Respiratory Support Devices."
The H7N9 bird flu virus has already had a mutation that allows it to spread more easily among birds, and another mutation that allows it to spread from birds to humans. It's believed that it's three mutations away from turning into a serious pandemic that may kill tens or hundreds of thousands of people.
This has nothing to do with how clever or competent government agencies are in China or the U.S. or in the United Nations. This has to do with complete luck -- whether the right combinations of genes come together and recombine or mutate into a form that will spread rapidly from human to human. Federal Register and BBC
 |
On Tuesday, a mob of hundreds of Buddhists descended on a Muslim community in Okkan, Burma, hurled bricks and set hundreds of homes and mosques on fire. Terrified Muslims fled to fields to escape the attack, and came back to find that they'd lost all they had, with their homes in piles of rubble. Violent attacks of this sort began last year in Rakhine state in southwestern Burma, and have been spreading to other villages, with the worst happening about a month ago in central Burma. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht") Tuesday's attack brings the violence very close to Rangoon (Yangon), Burma's largest commercial city. It's hard to see how this spreading violence can continue much longer without spiraling into a major war between Buddhists and Muslims that will spread beyond Burma. BBC and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-May-13 World View -- Buddhist on Muslim violence continues to spread in Burma (Myanmar) thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Pakistan government ignores terrorist extermination threats to Hazara Shias
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The Arab League, meeting in Washington DC, of all places, had a "very positive, very constructive discussion ... with positive results," according to Secretary of State John Kerry and VP Joe Biden. The Associated Press, which is totally in the tank for the Obama administration, gushed that it was a "sea change" in Mideast negotiations. What was this result that will change the face of the world and bring joy and happiness to all? Well, the Arab League amended its 11-year-old "Arab Peace Initiative," that calls for complete Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines, making east Jerusalem the capital of Palestine. The "sea change" is that the Arab League will now permit "minor land swaps" as part of the Israeli-Palestinian agreement. I'm not kidding. That's the "sea change." Get ready to pop the champagne corks. Jerusalem Post and Associated Press
As we reported in February, the al-Qaeda linked terror group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), an offshoot of the Taliban, has claimed credit for massive horrific slaughter in Quetta, Pakistan, of hundreds of Shias from the Hazara ethnic group by huge truck bombs. A week ago, a truck bomb killed 6 people and wounded dozens others when it was stopped at a checkpoint en route to another Hazara terrorist target in Quetta.
According to an earlier LeJ statement:
"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan. Like in the past, [our] successful Jihad against the Hazaras in Pakistan and, in particular, in Quetta is ongoing and will continue. We will make Pakistan their graveyard-- their houses will be destroyed by bombs and suicide bombers. ... Jihad against the Shia Hazaras has now become our duty. ... We will rest only after hoisting the flag of true Islam on the land of the pure -- Pakistan."
Despite these often repeated and brazen threats, neither Pakistan's government nor the provincial governments are taking any steps to prosecute LeJ leaders. Even when an LeJ leader is arrested, the prosecutors make no attempt to collect sufficient evidence for a trial, and the criminal has to be released, to conduct new terrorist acts against the Hazaras. These developments give credence to allegations that the Hazara Shias in particular and Shias at large, like other minorities across Pakistan, are persecuted with connivance of the state. South Asia Terrorism Portal
 |
Unemployment rose for the 8th consecutive quarter in the eurozone, reaching 12.1%. In Greece and Spain, it was 27%. Among people under 25, the unemployment rate in Greece was up again to 59.1% and 55.9% in Spain.
As bad as these figures are, the really important point is the trend, and the fact that unemployment continues to worsen. All the "kick the can down the road" moves that eurozone politicians made in 2010, 2011 and 2012 were with the expectation that the economy would be growing by now. The fact that the economy continues to collapse means that all of those decisions were based on faulty assumptions. As we now think back to that famous utterance by former Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, who said, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie," we can now conclude that all those lies were of no use, and didn't change the outcome we're seeing now. On the day of President Barack Obama's latest press conference, we might hope (in vain) that all the politicians in Washington learn a lesson -- whatever is going to happen is going to happen, and telling one lie after another won't change that. Eurostat (PDF) and Economist
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-May-13 World View -- Giddy politicians declare a 'sea change' in Mideast negotiations thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-May-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004
Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004