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Tech: Computer viruses increasingly attack mobile phones
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Two and a half years after mass demonstrations toppled Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled for decades, the biggest mass demonstrations since then are planned for Sunday by opponents of president Mohamed Morsi, as the first anniversary of ascension to power arrives. The "Tamarod" (rebel) movement has gathered over 22 million signatures demanding that Morsi step down.
On Saturday, thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square in Cairo, in anticipation of Sunday's demonstrations. At the same time, Muslim Brotherhood members and Morsi supporters have been gathering for a counter-demonstration. Both sides say they want to avoid violence, but there have already been violent clashes the last few days, and a young American student was killed as collateral damage. Religious leaders have warned of "civil war," but the army has said it will step in if violence gets out of control.
It's worth mentioning, at least in passing, that these mass demonstrations are not directed at either Israel or America. There are plenty of anti-Israel and anti-America demonstrations in the Mideast, but not in Egypt. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters
As Egypt approaches the first anniversary of the election Mohamed Morsi as the first elected president in thousands of years, Morsi's popularity has suffered because of massive economic problems, including high unemployment and massive gasoline shortages.
The opponents of Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood party are pointing to a number of human rights violations perpetrated by Morsi since he was elected President last year. As Egypt's first elected president in thousands of years, he was initially given the benefit of the doubt by many Egyptians, especially after his stunning success in mediating last year's war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. However, his prestige and support evaporated very quickly after that, when stunned the nation by issuing a decree giving himself dictatorial powers and forcing adoption of a new constitution written by and for the Muslim Brotherhood.
Morsi's opponents are now saying that he never cared about the Egyptian people, or reversing the human rights violations when Hosni Mubarak was in power. They point to the following:
During the election campaign, Morsi was the "Hope and Change" candidate who promised a free, secular society that would NOT be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, with a growing economy and opportunity for everyone. Morsi's opponents say that he never meant any of his promises, and that they were all forgotten the day he was elected.
In a conciliatory speech on Thursday, Morsi said:
"I stand before you as an Egyptian citizen, not as the holder of an office, who is fearful for his country.Today, I present an audit of my first year, with full transparency, along with a road map. Some things were achieved and others not. I have made mistakes on a number of issues."
Morsi apologized for the fuel shortages, and for not involving the nation's youth more in the new political system. All Africa and Al-Jazeera
With June 30 approaching, Egyptian security has harshly cracked down on smuggling though tunnels connecting Gaza to Egypt's Sinai region. The result has been a fuel shortage in Gaza, doubling of the price of building materials and the shutting down some construction sites. Morsi's policies with regard to the tunnels has been very severe for several months, ever since a brutal terrorist attack in Sinai was blamed on jihadists from Gaza.
When Mohamed Morsi became president and the Muslim Brotherhood scored major political victories last year, the people of Gaza were ecstatic, believing that Morsi would completely open up the crossings between Gaza and Egypt. Whether or not Morsi actually intended to open up the crossings, what he actually did do was to maintain Mubarak's policy of keeping the crossings closed, and make it even more strict in some ways. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and AP
Statistics from a new report are quite dramatic:
Most of the malware comes from malicious apps that the users install. One common malicious app is one that tricks the user into sending SMS messages to premium-rate numbers, resulting in charges up to $10 per message.
The latest version of the Android OS protects against many of these attacks, but only 4% of the Androids have the latest version. The problem is that mobile carriers (Verizon, Sprint, etc.) do not update their customers' phones because it's too much trouble for them, even though it leaves their own customers exposed to malware. Users should demand that their carriers provide the updates, and should sue the carriers if they lose money because an old Android OS version allowed an expensive attack to occur.
If you purchase a new Android phone, one thing you should investigate is whether the Android operating system is capable of being updated directly by Google, rather than by the carrier. This way, you'll at least have the latest security fixes. Dark Reading
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jun-13 World View -- Mass demonstrations on Sunday can affect Egypt's future thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Jun-2013)
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Southern Europe gives up the siesta, thanks to German demands
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Jihadists from Russia's North Caucasus provinces, particularly Chechnya, are achieving growing prominence in Syria's civil war, much to the distress of the Russians, who fear that they'll get training and develop terrorist skills in Syria, and then come back and use those skills in Russia. Furthermore, the active participation of North Caucasians in the Syria jihad has brought greater world recognition and appreciation among jihadists for the North Caucasus jihad movement, which had formerly been fairly isolated. Doku Umarov, leader of the Caucasus Emirate and the North Caucasus jihadist movement, experienced a sharp flip-flop in policy about the Syria war. A year ago, he was condemning any North Caucasians who went to fight in Syria, saying that the jihad in the Caucasus was more important. But the Syria war has been so popular with North Caucasus jihadists that recently Umarov proudly bragged about the fine work that his fighters were doing in Syria. Jamestown
With tensions rising in Syria, Russia has been withdrawing all military personnel from Syria for weeks. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that no military servicemen remain in Russia, although his claims have been disputed with respect to Russia's naval base in Tartus, Syria, on the Mediterranean Sea. According to Bogdanov:
"Russia decided to withdraw its personnel because of the risks from the conflict in Syria, as well as the fear of an incident involving the Russian military that could have larger consequences."
He added that such an incident would likely have some unfavorable reaction from the international community. Russia Today and Debka
Over 19 people were killed on Friday in a series of terrorist bombings in Iraq targeting Sunni militiamen who joined forces with U.S. troops fighting al-Qaeda during the Iraq war, and are therefore considered to be "traitors" by Sunni jihadist terrorists. The Sunni militiamen were protecting Shias attending the funeral of a Shia leader. Sectarian violence in Iraq has been increasing steadily since December, 2011, when the American troops completely withdrew from Iraq, and Iraq has now become a major battlefield in the sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias that's spreading throughout the Mideast.
Meanwhile, in a major twist that sounds like it came from a late night comedian, a senior advisor in Iraq's Shia government is saying that Iraq is no longer opposed to receiving further military help from the United States to fight the terrorist violence. LA Times and AP
The financial debates caused by the financial crisis in Europe are forcing southern Europeans "to live like Germans," according to Italian philosopher Giorgio Agamben. The debate, he says, has escalated into a battle of mentalities, of a Protestant work ethic against a Catholic savoir vivre. There's even a war against sleep, since you should be working instead of sleeping. In particular, the siesta hasn't existed in Spain since the fall of 2012, when the financial crisis forced the Spanish government to eliminate it. Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jun-13 World View -- Jihadists from Russia join opposition fighters in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Jun-2013)
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Fed reverses itself on ending quantitative easing
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Ecuador announced on Thursday that it is unilaterally canceling its deal with the United States that provides trade benefits on $223 million of Ecuadorian goods sold to the U.S., including everything from roses and socks to ceramics. The existing deal is scheduled to end on July 31, and U.S. politicians were threatening not to renew if Ecuador granted asylum to the sleazy American traitor Edward Snowden, who is currently hiding out in the "transit area" of Moscow's airport. So Ecuador decided to beat the U.S. to the punch, by unilaterally canceling the deal. According to Ecuador's president Rafael Correa:
"They’re threatening to take the trade preferences away because of the Snowden case. Our dignity doesn’t have a price."
This is really laughable because Correa himself is totally without dignity. He attacks and jails journalists on a regular basis if their newspapers print anything that he dislikes. His government just passed a new law against "media lynching," which is defined as
"the dissemination of concerted and reiterative information, either directly or by third parties, through media outlets, with the purpose of undermining the prestige [of a person or legal entity or] reducing [their] credibility."
At the same time, Correa is using his London embassy to protect sleazy alleged rapist Julian Assange from having to return to Sweden to face the rape charges, and now he wants to protect sleazy traitor Snowden. So Correa is not only totally lacking in dignity, but in fact is a sleazy politician who attacks journalists who disagree with him, but protects rapists and traitors that he likes. Human Rights Watch #1 and Miami Herald and Human Rights Watch #2
Last week, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that the Fed might begin to reduce the $85 billion quantitative easing that's pouring in the banking system each month. This money isn't helping you and me, but it's creating numerous distortions and it's the only thing keeping the stock market bubble from crashing. (See "23-Jun-13 World View -- The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge".)
The suggestion panicked wealthy investors, who began selling stocks to beat the crash and so, not surprisingly, the Fed is going into full-scale damage control and reversing itself. The reversal was announced on Thursday by William Dudley, president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York and vice-chairman of Ben Bernanke's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). According to Dudley:
"Economic circumstances could diverge significantly from the FOMC's expectations. If labor market conditions and the economy's growth momentum were to be less favorable than in the FOMC's outlook — and this is what has happened in recent years — I would expect that the asset purchases would continue at a higher pace for longer."
Dudley's statement that "this is what has happened in recent years" is quite amusing. It's worth repeating what I've said many times before: mainstream economists didn't predict and still can't explain the tech bubble of the late 1990s, the Nasdaq crash of 2000, the credit and real estate bubbles of the mid 2000s decade, the credit crunch of 2007, and the financial crisis that began in 2008. Pretty much every economic forecast since then has been totally wrong. Mainstream economists have no idea what's going on now, which we've seen in the past week, and have no clue what's coming next year, which is what Dudley is saying. Reuters
Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi is warning that the huge anti-government demonstrations planned for Sunday are threatening the country with "paralysis and chaos," and blamed the country's problems on conspiracies by "thugs," the supporters of the toppled regime of dictator Hosni Mubarak. The demonstrations come two years after similar demonstrations resulted in the deposing of Mubarak, and protesters are now hoping to achieve a similar result with Morsi. However, many others are concerned that a new wave of violence will sweep the country, with the country extremely polarized between Morsi's opponents and supporters. In a televised speech, Morsi admitted unspecified "errors" since he became president, but:
"Political polarization and conflict have reached a stage that threatens our nascent democratic experience and threatens to put the whole nation in a state of paralysis and chaos."
The opponents call themselves the "Tamarod" (or "Rebel") campaign. They've collected over 15 million signatures on forms demanding that Morsi step down as president, and 15 million is more than the number of people who voted for Morsi in the last election. The army is warning that it may step back in to keep order. The National (UAE) and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jun-13 World View -- Egypt braces for massive 'Tamarod' rebellion on Sunday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Jun-2013)
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Wall Street stocks gain on bad U.S. economic news
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President Barack Obama has been more successful than former NRA president Charlton Heston or current NRA president Wayne LaPierre in making guns available to a lot more people. Thanks to President Obama and his anti-gun campaigns, gun sales are exploding well into record territory. Gun manufacturer Smith & Wesson reports that its gun sales are up a whopping 42% this year. According to the CEO:
"While we significantly increased our production capacity in fiscal year 2013, we remain capacity constrained, as we have for the past five quarters. We plan to continue intelligently increasing capacity in fiscal year 2014."
If Obama were going to run for president again, I'm sure that Smith & Wesson would want to contribute to his campaign, because Obama is very good for the gun business -- better than George Bush or any recent president, and better than the NRA. Furthermore, Obama can point to the gun industry as a place where he personally can take credit for creating jobs -- jobs for gun manufacturers, gun distributors, gun retailers, and owners of gun practice ranges. Thanks to Obama, it's just guns, guns and more guns. When Obama's opponents point to his failures to create jobs, he can shut his critics up by pointing to his spectacular success with creating jobs in the gun industry.
Smith & Wesson's business is so good that they're capacity constrained, but 3D printers are quickly filling the gap. Cody Wilson, head of Texas nonprofit Defense Distributed, has demonstrated a 3D-printed gun that can be used hundreds of times before failing, and has published the blueprints (CAD file) on his web site. The whole gun control issue became even more farcical last month, when the U.S. State Dept. ordered Cody to remove the blueprints from his web site. But no matter, they're now available elsewhere on the internet.
When I wrote about 3D printed guns in December, 3D printers cost many thousands of dollars, and 3D-printed guns could not survive more than a few shots. I said at the time that the technology would quickly become much better and much cheaper, and it already has. Staples, for example, is selling the Cube 3D Printer for prices starting at $1200, and the $1000 barrier should be broken very soon. So President Obama is helping create jobs in another way, as people get into the business of 3D-printing and selling their own guns, if not legally, then in the black market. (By the way, I've been told that you can sell a 3D printed gun legally if you sell it in parts that the buyer has to assemble.) CNN and NY Daily News and Staples - 3D Printers
Xinjiang province, in northwest China, is about as far away from Beijing as you can get and still be in China, so it's not surprising the the ethnic Uighurs are extremely dissatisfied by having the distant Beijing government tell them how to run their lives, how to dress, and how to practice (or not practice) their Sunni Muslim religion, while at the same time, discriminating against Uighurs in favor of the mainstream Han Chinese. Early Wednesday morning, a mob of Uighurs began attacking Han Chinese, including civilians, police officers, and other government employees. After nine were killed, the police shot dead ten of the rioters, and arrested three. The attack may have been prompted by the fourth anniversary of the mob attack by Uighurs on July 5, 2009, which left 197 people dead and 1,600 injured. China has a policy of resettling masses of Han Chinese in Xinjiang, in order to dilute the Uighur population and to assimilate them. A similar policy in Tibet has met with no success. The Uighurs are from the same central Asian Turkic ethnic group as the people of Turkey are, and in 2009, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accused the Chinese government of genocide, and demanded that they end their policy of assimilation. Global Times (Beijing) and AFP
Israel has approved construction permits on Wednesday for 69 new homes in East Jerusalem, in an area taken over by Israel in the 1967 war with Palestinians. The approval comes one day before U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is due to arrive in Israel, with the intention of reviving the "peace process" between Israel and the Palestinians. The approval might therefore be interpreted as a thumb in the eye of President Barack Obama, who has asked Israel to freeze settlement building in order to revive the peace talks. As I've said repeatedly for the last ten years (see "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" from 2003), a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians is impossible, since they're headed for a new genocidal war re-fighting the 1949 war between Arab and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Jerusalem Post
I just love this. The economic news was bad on Wednesday because of data showing the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter, well below expectations for gross domestic product to grow at a 2.4 percent annual rate. Investors believe that the economic news was so bad that the Fed will be forced to continue its $86 billion per month quantitative easing program for longer than expected, and so Wall Street stocks gained 1%. (See "23-Jun-13 World View -- The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge".) The bad economic news means that you and I and "the 99%" will be harmed financially, but the continued quantitative easing will mean that "the 1%" investors and politicians will continue to be able to use the quantitative easing money to make more money for themselves. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jun-13 World View -- Gun sales explode, thanks to Obama's anti-gun campaign thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Jun-2013)
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Taliban suicide attacks targets Americans, but 'peace talks' are still on
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The Afghan Taliban claimed responsibility for a major suicide attack on the presidential palace in Kabul, and the nearby U.S. CIA office. The attack was stunning because it occurred within the "Ring of Steel," the highest security area within Kabul, which is supposed to be impervious to Taliban attacks. hree security guards and four militants died in the assault. Al-Jazeera
White House spokesman Jay Carney said that Barack Obama and Afghan president Hamid Karzai both said that this won't affect the peace process:
"[Both presidents] reaffirmed that an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process is the surest way to end violence and ensure lasting stability in Afghanistan and the region.And they reiterated their support for an office in Doha for the purpose of negotiations between the High Peace Council and authorized representatives of the Taliban. The two presidents reaffirmed that free, fair, and credible elections would be critical to Afghanistan's future."
Regular readers know that I frequently write about the bizarre nonsense that comes out of politicians' mouths, but this has got to be the most farcical thing going on today. Washington is desperate to get a "peace process" going with the Taliban, but the Taliban say that they're going to continue violence and suicide bombings even while the peace talks are going on. "Oh, another suicide bombing? That's fine, old chap. Let's carry on with the peace talks!" BBC
Recordings of phone calls by top Irish banksters in September and October, 2008, at the height of their financial crisis, show that, like many bankers that we've already highlighted in the past, these Irish bankers were cheap crooks with no morals and no ethics, ready to screw anybody, even their own nation, for their personal gain.
The recordings, which have just been released show the following:
"If they (Central Bank) saw the enormity of it up front, they might decide they have a choice. You know what I mean?They might say the cost to the taxpayer is too high . . . if it doesn't look too big at the outset . . . if it looks big, big enough to be important, but not too big that it kind of spoils everything, then, then I think you have a chance. So I think it can creep up. ...
"The reality is that actually we need more than that. [The strategy is] you pull them in, you get them to write a big check, and they have to keep, they have to support, their money."
"We won't do anything blatant, but ... we have to get the money in ... get the f***in' money in, get it in."
Drumm then starts laughing hysterically when Bowe talks about how they're accepting deposits from Germans that will never be paid back, and then starts singing the German national anthem, "Deutschland über alles."
The lies worked. Anglo-Irish bank received its 7 billion euro bailout, and ended up receiving a lot more -- 30 billion euros -- all of which was money down a rathole. Bowe and Drumm knew that would happen, but they lied anyway to keep their lucrative jobs, defrauding the government, the taxpayers, and the depositors, including the German depositors. But of course, no one is going to jail. How can you send a crook to jail if everyone is a crook?
This is just one more story in the dozens that I've written about. An entire generation of bankers purposely created tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent synthetic mortgage-backed securities, and then sold them as AAA risk free. Bankers manipulated Libor for their own profit. CNBC analysts and "experts" lie every day about price/earnings ratios (stock valuations). IRS employees target political enemies (and possibly personal enemies, for all we know), and the Obama administration lies about it. And of course, Eric Holder's Dept. of Justice refuses to investigate and prosecute the banksters who created the financial crisis, and then used the money they obtained to make huge donations to the Obama campaign. Every day, it's one more sickening revelation after another. Irish Independent and Irish Independent
I wrote an article about the German national anthem, "Deutschland über alles," in 2006. (See "Are Germans now proud to be Germans?") This is the song that Anglo-Irish bank senior executive John Bowe mimicked when he talked about how they were screwing the Germans.
The melody was composed by Franz Joseph Haydn in 1797, and put to words in 1841, to create "Das Lied der Deutschen" (Song of the Germans). Hitler adopted the song as his national anthem. After the war, two verses of the anthem were removed, leaving only the third verse, which talks about "Unity and law and freedom for the German Fatherland."
However, the most interesting verse is the second one:
"German women, German loyalty,
German wine and German song,
Shall retain in the world,
Their old lovely ring
To inspire us to noble deeds
Our whole life long.
German women, German loyalty,
German wine and German song."
They really should have kept that one. Check out the 2006 article. The history of "Deutschland über alles" is really interesting.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jun-13 World View -- Irish bankers sing 'Deutschland über alles' as they screw the Germans thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Jun-2013)
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Fed official warns of 'feral hogs' who harm the economy
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At least 10 parked vehicles rigged with bombs exploded in eight Shia neighborhoods across Baghdad on Monday, killing 31 people. The targets included a market place and a restaurant, and occurred as Shia Muslims marked Shabaniyah, the anniversary of the birth of Imam Mehdi, a key figure in their faith. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the bombings, but sectarian violence by Sunnis targeting Shias has been increasing throughout the Mideast, particularly since the invasion of the Iran-backed Shia terrorist group Hezbollah into Syria in support of the regime of president Bashar al-Assad. Terrorist violence in Iraq has been increasing ever since American forces withdrew in December, 2011. Al-Jazeera and AFP
Prices of both stocks and bonds fell sharply on Monday, prompting Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve to accuse "feral hogs" of scenting weakness and taking advantage of it:
"Markets tend to test things. We haven't forgotten what happened to the Bank of England [on Black Wednesday]. I don't think anyone can break the Fed . . . . But I do believe that big money does organize itself somewhat like feral hogs. If they detect a weakness or a bad scent, they'll go after it."
His comment refers to a 1992 attack led by George Soros on the Bank of England, which led to the UK crashing out of the European exchange rate mechanism. I guess Fisher thinks that Soros is a feral hog.
That's just another one of the desperate attempts to explain the sharp selloff. See "23-Jun-13 World View -- The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge".
Besides feral hogs, some experts are pointing to another reason for the global selloff: A "cash crunch" in China. China's economy is even more dysfunctional than America's, with a gargantuan real estate bubble and a huge credit bubble driven by a shadow banking system. The Chinese authorities are attempting to control both bubbles by reducing the money supply, and this is creating a credit crunch that's slowing down the economy. This is having a ripple effect in the fall of global commodity prices, as stock prices are falling throughout Asia. CNBC and Bloomberg
German meteorologist and climate expert Hans von Storch says that climate scientists are puzzled by the fact that even though recent CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions have actually risen even more steeply than politicians and scientists feared, there has been almost no temperature rise in the last 15 years. The climate models devised by scientists 10-15 years ago predicted a very significant rise in temperatures by now, but it just hasn't happened, indicating that their climate models are "fundamentally wrong," according to von Storch. There are two possible explanations: Either the rise in CO2 does not affect climate as much as scientists predicted, or else scientists underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes. Spiegel
When U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the Administration aren't begging Russia to return Edward Snowden or to stop supporting Bashar al-Assad, they're begging the Afghanistan Taliban to hold peace talks.
The U.S. Administration has been so desperate to get the Afghan Taliban to have peace talks, they've even dropped the preconditions announced last year by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: They must forego suicide attacks and violence, they must sever ties with al-Qaeda, and they must accept Afghanistan's constitution, including protections for women and minority. The Taliban have rejected all of these demands, and the Administration have acquiesced.
It now turns out that some 105 Afghanistan diplomats defected en masse on Saturday, when they were all supposed to return to Kabul for scheduled rotation. They've remained in the countries where they have been posted, and said that they would apply for asylum in their respective host countries. Many Afghan diplomats are the sons and daughters of high-ranking politicians who are also trying to go abroad as soon as possible and stay there until the situation in Afghanistan becomes clearer.
The U.S. could use a diplomatic victory about now. Let's see where Snowden ends up. Spiegel and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)
Without specifically mentioning Massachusetts, then-Senator John Kerry from Massachusetts inserted an opaque provision into the Obamacare bill when it was first created in 2009, requiring Massachusetts hospital workers to get significantly higher wages than workers in other states. The change has allowed Massachusetts to raise its Medicare payout by $257 million, forcing cuts to hospitals in 40 other states. The Massachusetts manipulation of the program would hand that state $3.5 billion over the next 10 years at the expense of Medicare beneficiaries everywhere.
Since I live in Massachusetts, I guess this helps me at the expense of most of you. Tough luck, suckers!
(Actually, the provision is expected to be repealed, which would "harm patient care," according to Massachusetts officials.) Wall Street Journal and Boston Globe
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jun-13 World View -- Over 100 Afghan diplomats defect rather than return to Kabul thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Jun-2013)
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Vicious attack by Pakistan Taliban kills 10 foreign tourists
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The consequences of the invasion of the Iran-supported Shia terrorist group Hezbollah into Syria, and their successful participation in the stunning victory by the forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad in flattening, demolishing and recapturing the town of Qusair are still continuing to grow. Hezbollah's actions have infuriated Sunnis throughout the region, and raised the specter of a major sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias. In Lebanon, a major battle broke out on Sunday between the Army versus the supporters of radical Salafist Sunni preacher Ahmad al-Assir. In a surprise ambush using RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades), al-Assir's fighters killed ten soldiers and wounded 38 others, and suffered two of their own casualties in firefight that followed. The fighting erupted at 2 p.m. and continued throughout the night. Lebanon's Army has been trying to remain neutral between the Sunnis and Shias, but this attack requires a response. According to a statement:
"The leadership of the Army will not stay silent ... it will continue its mission to break the strife in Sidon and other regions, and will strike with an iron fist all who dare to shed the blood of the Army. In a video posted on Sunday, Assir said that the Army belonged to the "shabbiha" [thugs] of Hezbollah and:
"To all our partisans, we are being attacked by the Lebanese Army, which is Iranian and Shiite. I call on all partisans to block roads and all honorable Sunni and non-Sunni [soldiers] to quit the Army." The Army is demanding that all who participated in the ambush be arrested. Daily Star (Beirut)
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Angry Sunni mob attacks Shia families in Giza, Egypt, killing four
An angry mob of over 3,000 Sunnis, led by Sunni Salafist sheikhs, torched and attacked houses of Shias in a village in Giza, Egypt, on Sunday afternoon killing four, including a prominent Shia leader. Police did nothing to stop the attacks. According to a Shia activist, the attack was triggered by a Muslim Brotherhood event at which president Mohamed Morsi appeared:
"We hold President Morsi responsible for this attack. There are not less than three million Egyptian Shias who live in Egypt and last Saturday during the Syria solidarity conference attended by Morsi in the Cairo Stadium, Salafist sheikhs insulted Shias and incited hate against those Egyptian Shia citizens." He added that Morsi did nothing to discourage the hate speech. Two weeks ago, Morsi broke off all diplomatic relations with Syria, as a consequence of Hezbollah's invasion of Syria. Sunday's mob attack is one more sign of the increasing Sunni fury at Syria's victory in Qusair, aided by Hezbollah. This mob attack on Shias by thousands of Sunnis, led by Salafist Sunni sheiks, is reminiscent of April's mob attack on Muslims in Burma (Myanmar) by thousands of Buddhists, led by Buddhist monks. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht") People sometimes ask me how it's possible for World War III to start if no politician declares war on anyone, since doing so would be "bad for business." As I've explained before, a generational crisis war comes from the people, not from the politicians, and this is illustrated by the mob violence in Burma and Egypt in the recent past. In this generational Crisis era, it would not take very much to trigger a wider war that could envelope an entire region. Al-Ahram (Cairo)
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Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP - the Pakistan Taliban) is claiming responsibility for a vicious attack on foreign mountaineering tourists in the Himalayas. Gilgit-Baltistan, which borders China and Kashmir, had been considered one of the more secure areas of Pakistan, so this attack is relatively unprecedented. The foreigners were from Ukraine, China, Slovakia, Lithuania, Nepal, while one of them was Chinese-American, and TTP says that it has created a new cell to attack foreigners, to avenge the U.S. drone strikes. Al-Jazeera and Daily Times (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jun-13 World View -- Sunni vs Shia violence explodes in Lebanon and Egypt thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Jun-2013)
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Egypt's 'Tamarod' campaign heads for mass confrontation on June 30
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I've written a couple of articles in the last four months that the stock market bubble was rising so quickly that it was becoming dangerously parabolic and might collapse at any time. The worldwide selloff during the last week of stocks, bonds and commodities is raising fears that the time is at hand. There is no way to predict exactly when a crash will occur, or whether the current selloff is the leading edge of a crash, but we can be absolutely certain that one is coming at some point.
I hope that no regular readers of Generational Dynamics World View are still in the stock market. If you are, then you have no one to blame but yourself for what happens to you.
Mainstream economists are completely incompetent to recognize what's happening. Just remember what mainstream economists were saying in 2006 about a possible real estate bubble that I and a few others were writing about:
It was not until 2010 that mainstream economists even admitted that there had been a real estate bubble four years earlier. These "experts" are so incompetent that they couldn't even recognize something as obvious a huge real estate bubble until four years later. This is the caliber of people you're depending on if you listen to CNBC or read the financial news. You might as well ask your five year old daughter for investment advice. It won't be any worse.
Last week's global selloff was apparently triggered by a statement by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke that the Fed might "taper" its policy of pumping $85 billion PER MONTH of money into the banking system, which investors then used to prop up the stock market. (Remember in 2007 how many people complained about President Bush's $60 billion stimulus package?)
The reasons that analysts and "experts" gave in 2006 for why there was no real estate bubble were ridiculous, and the reasons we're hearing today for last week's stock market sellout sound equally ridiculous:
The reason that a big selloff must occur is that stocks are enormously overpriced.
It's impossible to predict with certainty when the current bubble will deflate, but it's possible that it's deflating right now. Stocks are enormously overpriced by historical standards. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index on Friday (June 20) morning was 17.99, which is extremely high by historical standards, indicating that stocks are far overpriced.
If you look at the graph at the top of this article, you can see what's going on. Every 30 years or so, the P/E index (also called "stock valuations") falls to the 5-6 range, and it appears to on its way down to that level again, which means that the Dow index will fall to 3000 or lower.
What this graph also shows is that, since 1995, the stock market has experienced the largest bubble in history. When it does collapse, whether next week, next month, or next year, it will be the biggest financial crisis in history. By the Law of Mean Reversion, the stock market won't recover for decades.
The signs in the last week are that investors are selling everything they can into order to pay off money they borrowed to invest in stocks. A ZeroHedge article calls it "A Dash for Cash," and documents how one asset class after another has fallen sharply in the last few days. These asset classes include U.S. Treasuries, bonds from Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Italy and other European countries, municipal bonds, commodities, including gold and silver. There will be pressure on Fed chairman Bernanke to reverse himself next week, even if a reversal is a sign of desperation. Zero Hedge
Egypt's anti-government "Tamarod" (or "Rebel") campaign is calling for massive demonstrations and protests on Sunday, June 30, in response to a rally by hundreds of thousands of Islamists in support of the Muslim Brotherhood and president Mohamed Morsi on Friday (June 21) in Cairo and other cities. The protesters plan to demand the resignation of Morsi, and threaten to continue the protest until he resigns. Morsi called for calm and accused the Tamarod protesters trying to incite instability and of supporting the the regime of ousted president Hosni Mubarak of inciting instability. On Saturday, he warned the Tamarod protesters to restrain themselves on June 30:
"They want to bring back the past because the revolution harmed their interests. (People) must stop their evil plans because they do not want calm and stability for Egypt."
There was already sporadic violence between supporters and opponents of Morsi in Friday's pro-Morsi demonstrations. But now 34 political parties have announced plans to participate in the upcoming anti-Morsi protests, and some are promising smaller protests all week, leading up to Sunday. It's feared that there will a lot more violence between the two groups next Sunday. Daily News Egypt and Al-Ahram (Cairo)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jun-13 World View -- The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Jun-2013)
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Britain ends last line of defense against an interstellar alien invasion
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U.S. and Philippine warships will conduct a joint naval exercise near islands in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to the Philippines but over which are claimed by China as having "indisputable sovereignty." Six US and Philippine warships and 1,000 American and Filipino sailors and servicemen will take part in a joint naval exercise in Ayungin Shoal (called Renai Reef by the Chinese) from June 27 to July 2. The exercises will include fire drills, maritime interdiction, ship boarding and seizure, as well as aerial surveillance. The exercises were scheduled in 2010.
Tensions have been rising because of a Philippine warship, the BRP Sierra Madre, that was grounded on the shoal in 1999. China has accused the Filipinos of grounding the warship on purpose, and has been demanding for years that Philippine navy remove the warship from China's sovereign territory. Instead, the Filipinos stationed marines on the ship and have been regularly sending in supplies, which angers the Chinese. The Chinese have imposed a "three-layered" naval defense around the region to prevent Filipino fishermen from getting there. China Daily and Xinhua and Philippines Star
China appears to be on the military path to seize the Ayungin Shoal / Renai Reef from the Philippines, following the military strategy that was stunningly successful last year in seizing the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines. The Chinese sent a fleet of warships into the region to challenge Filipino ships. At one point, the Philippine Nave had two ships facing off against 90 Chinese vessels. The United States brokered a negotiated settlement, where both sides would withdraw their vessels. The Philippines complied, but the Chinese reneged, and instead took complete control of an island historically the territory of the Philippines. The United States expressed outrage at the Chinese subterfuge, but took no action other than the outrage.
Chinese experts praised the operation as an adroit exercise of Chinese power, and are now encouraging the government to follow a similar strategy to seize the Ayungin Shoal in the same way. They are counting on the fact that the U.S. will, once again, take no action except to express outrage. However, the Filipinos will not fall for a similar subterfuge this time, and there may be a military confrontation, even though the Philippine nave is substantially inferior to the emerging blue-water Chinese navy. Jamestown and Chiangrai (Thailand) Times
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Britain has released the last of the government's UFO files from the Ministry of Defense's "UFO Desk," which was closed in November 2009 after 60 years in operation. The closure announcement resulted in a spurt of new UFO sighting reports, though not nearly as many as after the movie Close Encounters of the Third Kind reached movie theaters in 1978. The decision to close the UFO Desk was made after defense secretary Bob Ainsworth was told that in 50 years "no UFO sighting reported has ever revealed anything to suggest an extra-terrestrial presence or military threat to the UK." Irish Times and UK National Archives on UFOs
Those who are interested in this subject may find it interesting to read my discussion of the existence of extraterrestrials in Chapter 7 - The Singularity of my unfinished book, "Generational Dynamics for Historians." The following is a brief outline of the arguments in that chapter:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jun-13 World View -- China and Philippines close to new confrontation in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Jun-2013)
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Russia and China angered by U.S. State Dept. child trafficking report
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A meeting between U.S. officials and representatives of the Afghan Taliban had been expected on Thursday in Doha, Qatar, but the meeting has been postponed because the Taliban had portrayed themselves as the government of Afghanistan, thus angering Afghan president Hamid Karzai. The Taliban had been offered the office building in Doha by Qatari officials, but the Taliban hoisted a Taliban flag above the building, and attacked a name plate calling it the "Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." Qatari officials demanded that the Taliban remove the name plate and the flag, but apparently all they did is move the name plate indoors, and move the flag to a shorter flagpole.
If talks ever begin, the first order of business will probably be a prisoner swap -- American prisoner of war Bowe Bergdahl in exchange for a number of Taliban fighters current imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay. Apparently the Taliban are very anxious to start "peace" talks so that they can get their fighters back, presumably to fight another day against U.S. forces. The Taliban are a terrorist group, and the U.S. never negotiates with terrorists, so it will be interesting to see how this works out. Reuters
The US Department of State released its annual report on human trafficking, and Russia and China reacted angrily after being downgraded to Tier 3, which refers to "Countries whose governments do not fully comply with the minimum standards and are not making significant efforts to do so."
Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the report used "unacceptable methodology":
"The very idea of raising this issue causes indignation. ... In fighting organized crime, including countering trafficking, Russian authorities will never follow instructions worked out in another country, let alone fulfill conditions presented nearly in the form of an ultimatum."
China's Foreign Ministry said,
"We believe that the US side should take an objective and impartial view of China's efforts and stop making unilateral or arbitrary judgments of China."
In the case of China, the report said that trafficking was "pronounced" among China's internal migrant population, and that the country's one-child policy had produced more boys than girls, fuelling demand for prostitution and foreign brides. U.S. State Department and BBC
Wall Street stock prices fell 2.5% on Thursday, the most in 19 months. Stock prices in general around the world lost 3.4% on Thursday.
The trigger was a statement by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke that the Fed my start reducing bond purchases (i.e., "printing money") later this year. The Fed has been pouring $85 billion per month of quantitative easing into the markets, and many people believe that this money has mostly made its way into the stock markets, pushing up stock prices to bubble levels. For example, last month we described how the investment bank Interactive Brokers allows wealthy people to borrow $1 million at 1.3% to invest in the stock market, ostensibly for yields above 5%. This shows how new debt and leverage has been used to push up stock market prices.
What Ben Bernanke did was to merely say that the $85 billion per month of quantitative easing would gradually be reduced, possibly starting in the fall. Many investors have been counting on this money so that could keep borrowing and add to their debt, and hope to use the borrowed money by investing in the stock market bubble.
So what always happens is that eventually the bubble starts to collapse, and investors suddenly have to start paying back the money they borrowed. This forces them to sell other stocks, pushing stock prices down even further, in a "vicious cycle."
It's impossible to predict when the current bubble will deflate, but it's possible that it's deflating right now. Stocks are enormously overpriced by historical standards. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index on Friday morning was 18.28, which is astronomically high by historical standards. We can't predict when the stock market crash will occur, but we can say with certainty that it's coming, and when it does, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index will fall from its current 18.28 down at least as far as to 6, which is where it was in 1982. When that happens, the Dow Industrials index will fall to 3500 or lower. If the pattern of the 1929 crash is followed, and that's quite possible, then the Dow Industrials will fall to 1400.
However, I want to repeat and emphasize that it's impossible to predict when this will happen. It's still possible that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will reverse himself, and promise more and more and more and more quantitative easing into the future, and that could push stocks up to even higher bubble levels, and postpone the inevitable crisis a while longer. Bloomberg
The common wisdom from mainstream economists is that when stocks go down, then bonds and gold go up, since investors take their money out of stocks and put it into bonds and stocks. However, mainstream economists are getting that one wrong as well. However, bonds around the world fell 1-2%, while price of gold fell 7%, silver fell 7%, and crude oil fell 4%.
All these prices fell for the same reason that stocks fell -- investors had to pay off their debt by selling any assets they had.
At the same time, the value of the dollar rose sharply against other currencies, continuing the deflationary trend that we've been discussing for ten years. USA Today and Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jun-13 World View -- Stock share prices fall sharply in global rout thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Jun-2013)
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IKEA tests a new refugee shelter to replace the tent
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President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan on Wednesday threatened to boycott the peace talks with the Taliban that the United States announced just one day earlier. (See "19-Jun-13 World View -- Taliban prepare for return of 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan'")
Karzai is complaining that the United States betrayed him, by allowing the Taliban to open an office in Doha, Qatar, and talk about the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," which was the name of the country when the Taliban ruled it prior to 9/11/01. The Taliban press conference portrayed the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan, leaving Karzai's government out in the cold. So Karzai said that the peace talks had to be "Afghan-led," presumably referring to his own government:
"The latest developments show that foreign hands are behind the Taliban’s Qatar office and, unless they are purely Afghan-led, the High Peace Council will not participate in talks. The opening of Taliban office in Qatar, the way it was opened and messages it contained, contradicts the guarantees given by the US to Afghanistan."
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry rushed to talk to Karzai, to try to convince him to change his mind. At the end of the day, Wednesday, nothing had been resolved.
As I've written dozens of times in the last few years, there is no chance of a "peace process" in Afghanistan. The easiest way to see that is a comparison with Iraq, where President George Bush's "surge" was a factor in the successful peace treaty that allowed the U.S. to withdraw. Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war, climaxing in 1988 -- an EXTERNAL war, where the Iraqis, Sunnis and Shias alike, united to fight the Iranians. But Afghanistan's last crisis war was the genocidal civil war of 1992-96 -- an INTERNAL war, pitting the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan against the the Northern Alliance, an alliance of Tajiks and Hazaras in northern Afghanistan. Furthermore, the Taliban are Sunni Islamist Pashtuns, occupy a large region in Afghanistan, through the tribal area, and deep into northwestern Pakistan, which is in a generational Crisis era. These are major differences that make an Afghanistan peace process impossible, and the whole attempt to negotiate peace with the Taliban a farce. AFP
Since the peace process negotiation with the Taliban is a farce, and most people involved know it, one may wonder what's motivating the people on both sides. According to several analysts I've heard, the answer is that both the U.S. and the Taliban want a prisoner exchange. The U.S. would like to get back Bowe Bergdahl, the last remaining prisoner of war. The Taliban would like to get a number of Taliban fighters currently imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay. Time
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With about 3.5 million refugees worldwide living in tents, IKEA is about to test a new Refugee Housing Unit that will give refugees privacy, electricity, and protection from the weather that they've never had with tents. Each of the IKEA shelters is designed to house one family. The shelters employ technologies to keep the interior cool by day and warm at night; a solar panel on each provides electricity. In a joint project with the United Nations, the shelters will be tested in the next few months in Ethiopia, Iraq and Lebanon. CS Monitor
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jun-13 World View -- Afghan peace talks collapse day after they're announced thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Jun-2013)
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U.S. drops some pre-conditions, announces peace talks with Taliban
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The White House announced Tuesday that U.S. representatives will open direct talks with Taliban representatives within the next few days, aimed at finding a political solution to the Afghan war. At the same time, Taliban representatives opened up a Taliban office in Doha, Qatar, where the talks with the U.S. will take place. According to a U.S. official:
"I think the US will have its first formal meeting with the Taliban, and the first meeting with the Taliban for several years, in a couple of days in Doha.I would expect that to be followed up within days by a meeting between the Taliban and the High Peace Council, which is the structure that President [Hamid] Karzai has set up for talks of this nature. ...
We'll tell them what we want to talk about and they'll tell us what they want to talk about and we'll both adjourn and consult on next steps, and then have another meeting in a week or two later."
U.S. officials said that this is "an important first step," with no guarantee of success. As everyone knows, the U.S. is committed to withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan in 2014. VOA and AFP
As U.S. officials were announcing the start of talks with the Taliban, the Taliban themselves were giving a press conference in Doha, Qatar, at the "Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." This was the name of the country Afghanistan when the Taliban ruled it, prior to September 11, 2001. According to the Taliban announcement:
"It is well known to all that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has been waging jihad and striving to put an end to the occupation and form an independent Islamic system. To reach this goal, it has utilized every lawful means.The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan simultaneously follows both military and political options and aims which are limited to Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate neither wants to pose harms to other countries from its soil nor will allow anyone to pose a threat to the security of countries from the soil of Afghanistan.
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan wants good relations with all countries of the world, including the neighboring countries on the basis of mutual respect and, while desiring security at the country level, the Islamic Emirate wants security and justice at the world level.
Of course, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers its religious and national duty to gain independence from the occupation and, for that purpose, has utilized every legitimate way and will utilize it in future too."
The Taliban said that there were five main reasons why they deemed necessary to open an office in Qatar:
As the 2014 withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan approaches, the U.S. has been forced to drop some previously announced pre-conditions for peace talks with the Afghan Taliban.
The Taliban made the following commitments:
The last is an allusion to Osama bin Laden's use of Afghan soil to launch the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. However, recent attempted attacks on Europe and America have been launched from AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) in northern Africa and AQAP (Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula) in Yemen.
The U.S. has dropped some other pre-conditions for talks:
The Taliban are expected to demand that all foreign troops be pulled out of Afghanistan in 2014, and that the U.S. not be permitted to leave behind a small force. Dawn (Pakistan)
Several hours after the Taliban were announcing peace talks with the United States, insurgents killed four U.S. soldiers in an attack on Bagram Air Force Base near Kabul in Afghanistan. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jun-13 World View -- Taliban prepare for return of 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(19-Jun-2013)
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Israel toughens law against 'Price Tag' attacks
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Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's regime's army, with some 80,000 military forces trained by Hezbollah, is preparing to launch a massive ground offensive to recapture the city of Aleppo. Hezbollah and the regime army cooperated two weeks ago in the stunning recapture of Qusair, which was accomplished by flattening the entire city with heavy weapons, killing thousands of civilians, combined with street to street fighting by Hezbollah militants. Hezbollah claims that their fighters will not be participating in the battle of Aleppo, but that it will be "supervising and providing military tactical advice on how to coordinate and conduct the offensive." The recapture of Aleppo will mark a significant turning point in the Syrian war, and might signal that the end of the war is near, with a significant victory for al-Assad, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia, and significant humiliation for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United States. Al-Arabiya (Dubai)
The fallout from Hezbollah's active participation in the Syrian war on the side of president Bashar al-Assad continues to grow. Most Mideast Muslims, both Sunni and Shia, used to love (Shia) Hezbollah because of its leadership in the "resistance" to Israel. But Hezbollah has opened a continually growing Shia-Alawite versus Sunni fault line that's becoming increasingly vitriolic each day. Thus, the official Saudi Press Agency published a statement calling Hezbollah a "loathsome, sectarian" group. And last week, Egypt did an about-face and severed all diplomatic relations with Syria, and the Arab nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) voted to impose sanctions against Hezbollah. On Monday, Hamas, which used to be a close ally with Hezbollah and even had its headquarters in Damascus, Syria's capital city, is now slamming Hezbollah, and demanding that it withdraw from Syria. Sectarian tensions are growing across the Mideast, and the coming battle of Aleppo, and an expected Shia-Alawite victory, will only exacerbate them further. The National (UAE) and Al-Arabiya and Bloomberg
I've reported on several occasions about so-call "price tag" attacks by Jewish settlers on Palestinians in the West Bank. The phrase "price tag" is frequently used by far-right Israeli settlers to denote revenge attacks against Palestinians or IDF soldiers in response to moves by the Israeli government to evacuate illegal West Bank outposts, or as retribution for attacks by Palestinians. The attacks have usually been against mosques or other property, and sometimes even Christian property, but they've occasionally crossed the line into violence against Palestinians. However, no one has ever been prosecuted for "price tag" attacks. Israel's cabinet on Sunday issued a statement saying that "Price Tag" organizations will now be designated as "illicit organizations," which will allow the authorities to seize properties and bank accounts belonging to group members, and to take more severe measures against them in courts. However, Israel stopped short of designating them as "terrorist organizations." Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified this decision by saying that this Jewish group cannot be compared with "terror organizations" such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, because that also reflect badly on Israel Middle East Monitor and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jun-13 World View -- 80,000 Hezbollah-trained Syrian soldiers ready to retake Aleppo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(18-Jun-2013)
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Sunni Islamist terrorists conduct another horrific attack in Pakistan
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The al-Qaeda linked terror group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), an offshoot of the Pakistan Taliban, is claiming responsibility for a horrific double suicide attack in Quetta on Saturday. A female suicide bomber was able to sneak onto a school bus carrying female college students. After everyone was seated, she blew herself up, killing 14. The survivors were transported to a hospital, and there another suicide bomber blew himself up, causing maximum carnage. LeJ militants then launched a gunfight at the hospital, killing another 11, until they were subdued. Similar kinds of attacks in the past have specifically targeted the Shia Muslim ethnic Hazaras. According to an LeJ spokesman on Sunday:
"The suicide attack on the bus was carried out by one of our sisters. She boarded the student bus and blew herself up. Then we carried out a second suicide attack at the hospital and our fighters killed several people. We did this because security forces killed our fighters and their wives in Kharotabad."
This is a lie by the LeJ spokesman, since LeJ has carried out many similar attacks in the past, and has previously issued a statement that said, "Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan."
A web site reader posted the following in the Generational Dynamics forum:
"Having been in Afghanistan for a year and dealing with the indigenous population is not reported in the media that in the regional life and the local culture is very hierarchical unlike in the North America/Western Europe zone. The Hazara is on the bottom of the tribal hierarchy because they are nomadic goat and sheepherders. They rent out their services to the highest “bidder”. Since they have no “land” or tribal claim, they are like the old cattlemen of the American west. Now many refugees are moving back to Afghanistan from Pakistan and trying to reclaim villages that they left one or two generations ago when the Russian or Taliban moved in and guess who is grazing their sheep on “their” land? Also, the borders are basically non-existent. The Af/Pak border is a line on the map drawn by Lord Durand and is a border control/tax collection station on the A75 between Spin Buldak, Af and Quetta-Chapman/Pakistan. The Hazara walk over the border with their sheep all the time. The more industrial of the Hazara have settled in Quetta and scattered all over Balochistan, and guess who sees the Hazara as competitors for jobs and other resources? The local Baloch ethnic/tribe group. Last, there is hardly any intermingling or marriage between the local groups, just old antagonisms from centuries ago. Remember, in that area where the Hazara live, memories and feuds go back generations and centuries."
Pakistan's new prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, has promised to end these terrorist attack by means of negotiated peace talks with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP - the Pakistan Taliban). Just as peace negotiations have no chance in Syria, they have no chance with the TTP or LeJ, either. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)
According to a news report, Iran will send 4,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers to Syria to support the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The introduction of Hezbollah's troops into Syria has already had several serious consequences in the Mideast -- Egypt's decision to cut all diplomatic ties with Syria, and the Obama administration's announcement that it will supply small arms to Syria's rebels. The introduction of 4,000 Iranian troops, if true, will raise the Sunni versus Shia vitriol in the region to a new high. For years, Generational Dynamics has been predicting a new genocidal Mideast war, re-fighting the war between Jews and Arabs that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and creation of the state of Israel, and now events seem to be gathering steam for a Sunni versus Shia war that will engulf the entire region, and pull in other nations, including the United States. Independent (London)
The United States said on Saturday it will keep Patriot missiles and F-16 jet fighters in Jordan after joint military exercises end next week. According to the State Department:
"The secretary [John Kerry] reaffirmed that the United States continues to work aggressively for a political solution with the goal of a second Geneva meeting, but that the use of chemical weapons and increasing involvement of Hezbollah demonstrates the regime's lack of commitment to negotiations and threatens to put a political settlement out of reach."
This appears to be one more consequence of Hezbollah's invasion of Syria by troops fighting in support of Bashar al-Assad's army. Reuters
The government created the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) in 2009 in response to the foreclosure epidemic and to encourage banks to give homeowners loan modifications, allowing some borrowers to stay in their homes. This followed a scandal when it was revealed that bank employees "robo signed" documents without verifying them as is required by law. Now, six former Bank of America employees are accusing the bank of purposely sabotaging the HAMP program, forcing homeowners unnecessarily into foreclosure instead of modifying the loans, and then lying both the homeowner and the government about what they were doing.
What's remarkable about this story is that it's so unremarkable. We're living in a time when an entire generation of bankers purposely created tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent synthetic mortgage-backed securities, and then sold them as AAA risk free. We're living at a time when bankers manipulated Libor for their own profit, when CNBC analysts lie every day about stock valuations, and when the White House lies every day about having used the IRS to target political enemies. And it's worth pointing out again: The Obama justice department adamantly refuses to investigate and charge bankers who participated in the fraud that caused the financial crisis, or who perpetrated the IRS targeting. So, Bank of America employees defrauding homeowners and lying to the government is nothing special. It's just what happens every day these days. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jun-13 World View -- Report: Iran sending 4,000 troops to aid Assad in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(17-Jun-2013)
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Egypt cuts all diplomatic relations with Syria
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Iran's Interior Ministry has announced that Friday's election was won by the Hassan Rouhani, with 52.49% of the votes. Rouhani will replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of Iran in early August. There were several major surprises:
On the other hand, the election can hardly be called open and fair. The regime still has several moderate politicians under arrest since 2009, and in recent days the regime has been openly threatening violence against the families of BBC reporters who are simply reporting on the election. Reformist newspapers have been shut down, and journalists have been arrested. It's quite likely that there would be widespread protests if a hardliner had won. Fars (Tehran) and Bloomberg
Hassan Rouhani, 64, lived through the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and is a confidant of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so it's not clear how "moderate" he's going to be. It's quite likely that national and international expectations of him will exceed what he's able to deliver.
Rouhani's campaign bears some similarity to Barack Obama's 2008 campaign as the "hope and change" candidate, blaming everything on the previous administration. Even though the policies of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were very conservative, and not far from the policies of the Supreme Leader, Rouhani was able to walk a tight line by directing all his criticism at Ahmadinejad rather than Khamenei.
Rouhani's campaign promises were:
Iran is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s-70s, when there was a "generation gap," resulting in enormous political turmoil and some violence.
Rouhani won a landslide victory, and now has mandate for change. But the real power in Iran lies with the Supreme Leader and the hardline Guardian Council. So the most likely result of Friday's election is that when the euphoria wears off, the bitter political conflicts will return. BBC and Reuters
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Egypt's President Mohamed Morsi announced on Saturday the end of all diplomatic ties with the Syrian regime led by Bashar Al-Asaad, and that "the Egyptian people and army are supporting the Syrian uprising."
"We have decided to close down the Syrian embassy in Cairo. The Egyptian envoy in Damascus will also be withdrawn."The people of Egypt and its army will not leave Syrians until their rights are granted and a new elected leadership is chosen. ...
Hezbollah must leave Syria; there is no place for Hezbollah in Syria. The Egyptian people have stood by the Lebanese people and Hezbollah against the [Israeli] attack in 2006, and today we stand against Hezbollah for Syria."
Morsi also urged the West to implement a no-fly zone over Syria, something that the Obama administration has already rejected.
This is a dramatic about-face for Egypt, since Morsi had hoped to serve as a mediator to end the Syrian conflict, as he had done in last year's Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, the invasion of Syria by Hezbollah appears to have been the trigger that forced him to choose sides against the al-Assad regime.
Hezbollah's invasion of Syria on the side of the al-Assad regime is a major turning point in the Mideast. As we've been reporting, the attitudes of Sunnis and Shias towards each other is becoming increasingly vitriolic throughout the region. It would take very little at this point to start a local fight that could spiral out of control and spread throughout the region. Al Ahram (Cairo)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jun-13 World View -- Iran's elections won by 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(16-Jun-2013)
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European outrage after Greece shuts down public broadcasting
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As we've been reporting, the recent announcement by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and his subsequent actions in providing thousands of fighters to help Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army, has resulted in a harsh Sunni/Shia divide throughout the Mideast, with Arab Sunni Muslims vitriolically condemning and threatening all Shias, especially after the stunning al-Assad/Hezbollah victory in Qusair. Nasrallah continued to pour gasoline onto the flames on Friday in a new televised speech where he promised to continue his invasion of Syria on behalf of al-Assad:
Before Qusair is the same as after Qusair. Nothing has changed.Isn't the conspiracy the same?... Have the facts changed? On the contrary, the other side is stirring up this conflict even more. Where we need to be, we will be. Where we began to assume our responsibilities, we will continue to assume our responsibilities.
To defeat this very, very dangerous conspiracy (against Syria) we will bear any sacrifices and all the consequences."
Fresh from its victory in Qusair, the al-Assad regime is now attempting a similar victory in Aleppo. A victory there may deal a fatal blow to the opposition rebels. AFP and Al-Jazeera
On Friday, Obama administration officials revealed some details about the plan to support rebels in Syria, following Thursday's statement confirming that the regime of president Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons, including sarin gas, against his own people. The CIA will send small arms, ammunition and potentially anti-tank weapons to Syria's rebels. Setting up a no-fly zone, or any "boots on the ground" are off the table.
Republican Senator John McCain, who has been extremely critical of President Obama's lack of leadership in Syria, called the new proposal "disgraceful":
"For us to sit by, and watch these people being massacred, raped, tortured in the most terrible fashion, meanwhile, the Russians are all in, Hezbollah is all in, and we’re talking about giving them more light weapons? It’s insane."
On the other hand, the Russians are critical of any action by the Obama administration at all. According to Aleksey Pushkov, the head of the Duma’s Foreign Affairs Committee:
"The data about Assad’s use of chemical weapons is fabricated by the same facility that made up the lies about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. Obama is walking George W. Bush’s path.Now they are arming the rebels but then they will come to some form of direct military involvement. We cannot exclude the possibility of cruise missile strikes and if this measure brings no result – of direct military intervention."
The Russians are warning that the U.S. action may start an arms race in the region, which is laughable, because the Russians have already started an arms race by supplying the al-Assad regime with heavy weapons for many months. The U.S. administration is reluctant to give the opposition heavy weapons, out of fear that they'll fall into the hands of al-Qaeda linked forces, such as Jabhat al-Nusra. CNN and Politico and Russia Today
The Europeans have been demanding that Greece, in return for its bailout payments, must lay off 4,000 civil service employees this year, and 11,000 more in 2014. So you'd think that the Europeans would be happy when Greece's prime minister, Antonis Samaras, announced on Tuesday that he would shut down public broadcaster ERT and dismiss some 2,700 employees. The decision isn't as radical as it sounds, since there are plenty of private broadcasters in Greece, and Samaras said that soon there would a smaller, leaner public broadcasting service.
Well, the Europeans were not happy with this decision, because it apparently affects one of their sacred cows. There have been widespread expressions of outrage that Samaras closed down the ERT. The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) called the action "anti-democratic" and "unprofessional." So the European message to Greece is: "Lay off 4,000 civil service employees this year, but not anyone that we want to protect." That's why it's hard to lay off any civil service employees.
The outrage, both inside and outside of Greece, has become so great that the stability of the coalition government is threatened, with coalition partners demanding that ERT be reopened immediately. Samaras is attempting to negotiate a compromise that would keep ERT closed down, but that would speed up the creation of a new broadcaster, to have the acronym NERIT. BBC and Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jun-13 World View -- Hezbollah promises to keep fighting for Assad in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Jun-2013)
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Qusair battle turns Sunni Arab people and nations against Hezbollah
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The White House issued a statement late on Thursday confirming that the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has crossed a "red line" with the use of chemical weapons on its own people, causing some 150 deaths:
"Following a deliberative review, our intelligence community assesses that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year. Our intelligence community has high confidence in that assessment given multiple, independent streams of information. The intelligence community estimates that 100 to 150 people have died from detected chemical weapons attacks in Syria to date; however, casualty data is likely incomplete. While the lethality of these attacks make up only a small portion of the catastrophic loss of life in Syria, which now stands at more than 90,000 deaths, the use of chemical weapons violates international norms and crosses clear red lines that have existed within the international community for decades. We believe that the Assad regime maintains control of these weapons. We have no reliable, corroborated reporting to indicate that the opposition in Syria has acquired or used chemical weapons. ...The President has been clear that the use of chemical weapons – or the transfer of chemical weapons to terrorist groups – is a red line for the United States, as there has long been an established norm within the international community against the use of chemical weapons. Our intelligence community now has a high confidence assessment that chemical weapons have been used on a small scale by the Assad regime in Syria. The President has said that the use of chemical weapons would change his calculus, and it has. ...
Put simply, the Assad regime should know that its actions have led us to increase the scope and scale of assistance that we provide to the opposition, including direct support to the SMC. These efforts will increase going forward.
The United States and the international community have a number of other legal, financial, diplomatic, and military responses available. We are prepared for all contingencies, and we will make decisions on our own timeline."
However, while this statement escalates the rhetoric, it avoids talking about any specific action, presumably for the same reasons as before -- that any aid given to the rebel groups could fall into the hands of Jabhat al-Nusra or other al-Qaeda linked groups. The problem is that President Obama has repeatedly used highly threatening rhetoric, sometimes specifying "red lines," but has taken no action when a red line is crossed except to move the red line. This has subjected him to some ridicule in the Mideast. Now it appears to be happening again, although Obama has promised to evaluate all options. Guardian
The harshest critic of president Barack Obama on lack of leadership in Syria has been Senator John McCain. But now, former president Bill Clinton has said that he agrees with McCain. At a press event on Tuesday held jointly with McCain, Clinton criticized Obama for allowing his decisions to be too strongly guided by opinion polls:
"Some people say, 'Okay, see what a big mess it is? Stay out!' I think that’s a big mistake. I agree with you [McCain] about this. Sometimes it’s just best to get caught trying, as long as you don’t overcommit — like, as long as you don’t make an improvident commitment.Nobody is asking for American soldiers in Syria. The only question is now that the Russians, the Iranians and the Hezbollah are in there head over heels, 90 miles to nothing, should we try to do something to try to slow their gains and rebalance the power so that these rebel groups have a decent chance, if they’re supported by a majority of the people, to prevail? ...
[If you blame a lack of action because] there was a poll in the morning paper that said 80 percent of you were against it ... you’d look like a total wuss. And you would be."
Suggesting that president Obama might look like a "total wuss" is pretty strong language. Politico
The White House justified its statement Thursday threatening action in Syria because of chemical weapons, but that's really old news. It's far more likely that the White House was pressured by last week's news of the stunning victory by the al-Assad regime in Qusair, aided by Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon. Analysts that I've heard have expressed little doubt that Assad could not have won that battle without help from Hezbollah's fighters, who have been trained in street fighting by Iran.
Hezbollah's popularity surged among Sunni Muslim Arabs in the wake of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, at a time when Sunni and Shia Muslims were largely united over the American military in Iraq. However, all of that changed very rapidly in the last few weeks, since Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave a fiery speech promising to defeat Sunni Muslims in Syria, and then followed up by supporting al-Assad's Shia-Alawite army in Qusair.
According to one Saudi writer, the attitude of the Sunni Arab public has become vitriolic:
"They have exposed a malicious racist spirit that places its pains above all others’ pain. They are moved by the desire of blind vengeance. They know no mercy, tolerance or justice. They consider that the ones responsible for all these pains are everyone who belongs to the sect of the tyrant. This is how crimes were attributed to people who have nothing to do with the fighting in the Syria. They were only attributed to them because they happen to belong to the same sect. ...At first, I thought they were bats of darkness on Twitter. I thought they were masked people who enjoy insulting, criticizing and accusing others of infidelity on Twitter because they know no one can pursue them or hold them accountable. But I later realized that the situation is far more dangerous and expanded than that. A university scholar who teaches in a prominent university in our country wrote 'we must remind our children that the infidel Shiite and Alawites are the ones who [committed crimes] against our people in Qusair. I will spit in the face of whoever preaches to me about tolerance.' A Saudi reminded him of humanitarian, cultural, national and religious references that unite people and described the former’s stance as reactionary and primitive. The university teacher responded saying: 'Welcome to reactionism and primitiveness that will purge our country of your impurity.'"
The Sunni Arab Muslim vitriol at Hezbollah is being translated into threats by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of Sunni Arab nations.
"The GCC strongly condemns Hezbollah’s blatant intervention in the crisis in Syria which caused the death of civilians. ...Hezbollah’s illegal intervention and the horrific practices of its militias in the region will harm its interests in GCC countries. The GCC council decided to take measures against Hezbollah loyalists' residencies as well as their financial and trade transactions."
The exact sanctions were not described, but this kind of statement directed against Hezbollah would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago.
For years I've been writing that the Mideast is heading to a new war between Sunni and Shia Muslims, between Israelis and Arabs, refighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. It's now a possibility that this war will be an expansion of the war in Syria, triggered by the invasion of Hezbollah militias into Syria. Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Arabiya (Dubai)
This is really hilarious. Republicans and Democrats in Congress, and their aides, have suddenly discovered that the Obamacare law, which nobody read before it was passed, actually applies to them. They're whining and panicking because their health insurance costs will skyrocket, and the resulting policies won't be as good. It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people. Politico
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jun-13 World View -- U.S. escalates Syria crisis with confirmation of chemical weapons thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Jun-2013)
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Prism revelation is already damaging national security
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With voting in Iran's presidential election set to begin on Friday, the leadership is seeking to avoid a repeat of the massive anti-government protests and charges of election fraud that followed the 2009 re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. The hardliners, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have proclaiming the importance of everyone voting:
"Every vote that the people cast ... is primarily a vote of confidence for the Islamic Republic and for our electoral mechanism."
Everyone realizes that this campaign is something of a joke, because the real humiliation for Iran was the massive bloody violence that followed the election, when the police and the Revolutionary Guards started torturing, mutilating and slaughtering peaceful protesters. In fact, for over two years Iran has been the psychopathic Bashar al-Assad conduct the same kind of campaign on steroids in Syria.
So nobody doubts that the Islamic Republic is a failure when it has to kill, torture and mutilate peaceful protesters, and that the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a fool for claiming otherwise. In fact, two reform candidates from the 2009 election, Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, are still under arrest. They are symbols of the massive failure of the Islamic Republic.
Iran is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s-70s, when there were massive anti-government protests and some police violence against them, though nowhere near the scale of the violence in Iran. Like America in the 1960s, there is a "generation gap" today in Iran, pitting the hardline survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and the subsequent Iran/Iraq war versus the younger generations that grew up after the war. These generational confrontations usually end up with a climactic victory by the younger generation since, after all, the old generation dies off. (In America, the climactic victor was the resignation of President Richard Nixon in 1974.)
The voting campaign presents a dilemma for younger voters in Iran, who are torn between on the one hand protesting against leadership by boycotting the vote, and on the other hand voting for the reform candidate Hassan Rouhani, and hoping he'll win.
As I described in "23-May-13 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation", Khamenei has already arranged to disqualify the leading reformist candidates, but that strategy could conceivably backfire, as now there's only one reformist candidate left. CS Monitor and Foreign Policy
On Friday, voters in Iran's presidential election will have a choice of five hardline candidates, and only one who is considered "centrist" or "reformist." It's a question just how reformist he is, since he's a cleric who's close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But he's become very popular with young Iranians, and he's particularly critical of the economic policies of the last eight years.
All the other reformist candidates have been eliminated. Last month Khamenei arranged to have former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei disqualified. Then earlier this week another reformist candidate, Mohammad Reza Aref, announced that he was withdrawing from the race, in order to avoid drawing votes away from Rouhani.
So with all these other candidates eliminated, Rouhani's poll results have surged, while all the hardline votes are split among the five remaining candidates. Rouhani is still unlikely to win the election, but victory by Rouhani would be a victory for the younger generation, and a defeat for Khamenei. Al Monitor and BBC
The traitorous act of Edward Snowden in revealing the top secret Prism program is already damaging national security. Jihadist and terrorist web sites are prominently displaying the information exposed by Snowden, and are instructing terrorists how to use alternate communications channels that can't be trace by the NSA. Jihadists are recommending that terrorists use Linux rather than Windows, and are providing technical information on protecting jihadist information. Previous revelations of top secrets include the admission of responsibility for the Stuxnet virus that slows Iran's nuclear program, and the Obama administration's bragging revelation of the details of the death of Osama bin Laden. All of these revelations have damaged America's security. Bill Gertz / Free Beacon
Last week's stunning victory by the Syrian army combined with Hezbollah in Qusair is threatening to give the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad a victory in the civil war, now in its third year. The regime's firepower was overwhelming, and the regime's forces adopted a new technique: They used heavy weapons to level row after row of building, essentially leveling the entire town, providing no cover for the rebels. Thousands of rebel fighters and civilians were killed in Qusair, and only a few hundred escaped, fleeing in desperation. It's now clear that the rebels are close to defeat, and will have to develop a new strategy. One activist is calling for greater use of suicide bombings in Alawite neighborhoods, where the civilians typically are strong supporters of al-Assad. "We should take the battles to the heart of Alawite neighborhoods," he said. Daily Star (Beirut)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jun-13 World View -- Reform candidate Rouhani advances in Iran's presidential polls thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Jun-2013)
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Greece faces new economic disaster, and shuts down state broadcasters
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What began as peaceful protests by a few dozen people in Gezi Park in Istanbul, Turkey, two weeks ago have now grown to anti-government protests by tens of thousands of people in Istanbul's Taksim Square, with additional protests in cities across Turkey. On Tuesday, Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan toughened his rhetoric, said he would show "no more tolerance" for the massive protests, and sent in the riot police, who used tear gas, rubber bullets, water cannons, and bulldozers to drive the protesters out. The situation is reminiscent of the small protests that began in Tunisia and Egypt and ended up as huge protests that overthrew the countries' leaders. In addition, Erdogan has to be careful not to allow too much violence, or he'll be unfavorably compared to his next-door neighbor, president Bashar al-Assad of Syria.
Unlike the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Syria, Erdogan came to power in Turkey ten years ago by winning an election, and he's been reelected twice since them, making him a popular leader.
But Erdogan's leadership has opened up a major political fault line in Turkey, the Islamists versus the secularists. After the mighty Ottoman Empire was destroyed in 1922 in the aftermath of World War I, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, ended the Muslim Caliphate and declared Turkey to be a secular state. For example, since the 1920s it was actually illegal for women to wear headscarves in public buildings, until Erdogan reversed that rule in 2007. (See "More than a million of secularists rally in Turkey" from 2007.)
The area around what is now called Taksim Square was only partially inhabited, housing a military barracks and military training ground. It became Taksim Square in the early 1920s and is a symbol of Ataturk's secularist revolution. Now Erdogan wants to enlarge Taksim Square, to rebuild the old Ottoman era military barracks and a mosque on the grounds, and Turkey's secularists see that as just one more example of Erdogan's determination to destroy all symbols of Ataturk and secularism, and to turn back the clock to the days of the Ottoman Empire.
It's been only two weeks since the protests started. Perhaps Erdogan will be forced to step down, or maybe the army will become more violent, or maybe the political fault line will turn into a more violent fault line. Turkey is in a generational Crisis era, and so a replaying of the 1908 Young Turk's Revolution is in the air. It will be interesting to watch what happens next. AFP and CNN
Barely a day goes by when the news about Greece's economy doesn't worsen, and Tuesday was no exception. The plan was that Greece would privatize its government-owned natural gas firm DEPA, raising as much as 1 billion euros, to help offset the country's massive debt, and satify the terms of the bailout agreement with Greece's European creditors. However, Greece did not get a single bid for DEPA, and the failure became apparent on Monday when Russian energy giant Gazprom withdrew from the bidding. This throws Greece's entire privatization program into chaos. Now Greece will (theoretically) have to find another way to make up for the 1 billion euros, if it's to meet its bailout terms. Reuters
Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras took a desperate decision on Tuesday when he announced that he would shut down the public broadcaster ERT and dismiss some 2,700 employees. The shutdown affects television stations, radio stations, and magazines. The shutdown takes place immediately at midnight on Tuesday. The decision was met with derision from opposition parties and TV and radio employees, and dismay from the European Broadcasting Union. Kathimerini and Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jun-13 World View -- Déjà vu in Turkey as riots threaten Erdogan regime thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Jun-2013)
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After years of hesitation, U.S. discussing arming Syria's rebels
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Because of the recent military successes of the army of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, aided by thousands of fighters from Lebanon's Hezbollah terror militia and possibly also by Revolutionary Guards from Iran, the Obama administration is beginning a discussion on providing lethal weapons to rebel forces. The weapons would only go to "vetted, moderate" rebel units, to prevent al-Qaeda linked groups to end up with the weapons. This would essentially pit the United States alongside regional allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar in a proxy war against Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. AP
A political realignment has been taking place in the Mideast, thanks to the actions of Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad's mass slaughter of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians in Syria. However, the recent major announcement by Hezbollah secretary-general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah would be openly fighting alongside al-Assad's forces against the rebels has served to deepen and hasten the realignment.
Since 1948, Mideast politics has largely been motivated by the "resistance to Israeli occupation," and "the enemy of my enemy (Israel) is my friend." Probably the strangest manifestation has been the close alignment of Sunni Muslim Hamas with three Shia Muslim entities, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran, with additional support from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Sunni Muslim countries. However, al-Assad's torture, mutilation and slaughter of peacefully protesting Sunni Muslim Arabs in Syria has torn apart those alliances, and re-formed them along sectarian lines. An early sign was last year's announcement by Hamas that it was closing its headquarters office in Damascus, Syria, and moving it to Doha, Qatar.
But Nasrallah's recent announcement has sparked a wave of enraged sectarian criticism of Hezbollah in the Sunni Arab world, with the media saying that Hezbollah is a murderous and hostile organization even more dangerous than al-Qaeda. Other articles argued that the organization had forfeited its legitimacy and that it was dragging both Lebanon and the region into sectarian war, as part of an Iranian-Russian plan to gain control of the region. According to a leading Saudi government daily:
"[Hezbollah] is continuing alone on its suicidal path, despite the objection of the parties, sects and the people in Lebanon. Had it not been for this organization, a sectarian conflict would not have erupted in Tripoli, scores of people would not have been killed, and missiles would not have fallen yesterday on one of Beirut's suburbs. One should remember that this organization is the regional arm of forces that are larger than it."
In Egypt, the responses were fewer and more moderate apparently because the Egyptian regime seeks to position itself as a broker in the Syrian crisis. Memri
Russia is considering putting Russian troops into the Golan Heights on the Israel-Syria border as peacekeepers. Russia made the suggestion last week after the Austrians announced that they would pull their troops out of the U.N. peacekeeping force, but the U.N. rejected the suggestion because of a 1974 agreement between Syria and Israel that no permanent members of the U.N. Security Council could serve there as peacekeepers. But the Russians have decided to push ahead anyway, to provide "peace and stability." According to Aleksey Pushkov, Russia's top foreign policy MP,
"The issue has not been yet solved, it is being considered. We must take some real action because we cannot exclude that the Syrian-Israeli topic would be involved in large-scale military action. ...Assad could be replaced by radical Islamists in comparison with whom Assad would seem an angel from heaven. The people who are now offering friendship to Israel would not necessarily see Israel as their partner when they come to power, rather they would see it as an enemy."
According to press reports, Israel has replied to the Russian offer, but has not disclosed whether it supports or opposes it. Since Russia is supporting the al-Assad regime, the implication of these statements is that Israel and Russia would be supporting the al-Assad regime against the rebels.
As I've been writing for many years, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China + Pakistan + the Sunni Muslim countries versus the U.S. + India + Russia + Iran + Israel. This new development appears to be a step in that direction. Russia Today and Ria Novosti
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jun-13 World View -- Russia considers putting troops on Israel-Syria border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Jun-2013)
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George W. Obama
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Prior to the two-day meeting of China's president Xi Jinping and U.S. president Barack Obama, both of them bubbled with enthusiasm, and talked about a "new model" of cooperation between China and the U.S. Now that's it's over, a U.S. official has described it as "unique, positive and constructive."
But the only agreement to come out of the meeting was North Korea shouldn't have nuclear weapons. That was it. The silence has been deafening. Let's see if we can guess what happened with respect to the other issues that were supposed to be discussed at this summit:
It's well to remember, as I've described in the past, that Xi Jinping has launched a series of "The China Dream" speeches, in which he calls for China to shed its past as a secondary player, and become the world's top military and economic power. He's visited Chinese military bases and told the troops to be ready for war at any time. He's personally taking charge of policy in the East and South China Seas, and has vowed that China will take every step necessary to gain control of these regions, including areas that have been owned by other countries for centuries. China is rapidly preparing for war with India, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan and the U.S., and Xi Jinping is committed to leading the effort.
When President Obama was asked how the meeting was going, he said "Terrific!" The credulous mainstream press thought he was saying that the meeting was going well, but I interpreted his response as being sarcastic. It's possible that President Obama may now realize that his smooth rhetoric will have no effect on anything that China is going to do. BBC and Global Times (Beijing)
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A number of President Barack Obama's supporters on the left are claiming that Obama has morphed into President George W. Bush. The adjoining picture is a blending of the images of Obama and Bush and looks really weird. Nonetheless, this photo was displayed last week on the front page of the left-wing Huffington Post to demonstrate their distress that sometimes Obama isn't the total loony nutcase that the far left wants him to be.
Apparently it wasn't the Benghazi scandal or the IRS scandal or the threats targeting Fox News's James Rosen or the lies and stonewalling and coverups that caused this comparison to be made. That's just as well, because for those, we should have a picture of Richard M. Obama.
Ironically, the revelation that's causing the left to complain about George W. Obama is the revelation about Prism, the secret government programs that collect phone and internet data to help thwart terrorists. That's ironic, because from what I understand the technical details of the operation of Prism to be, and unlike the IRS targeting of Obama's enemies, the American public appears to be protected, and the program provides a powerful and valuable service in protecting America from terrorist attacks. Regarding Prism, the real crime is that it was made public by another left-wing nutcase.
Long-time readers of my web site will not be surprised at all that Obama's terms as president are very much like Bush's third and fourth terms would have been. As I've said many times, I didn't worry too much about the ridiculous claims that Obama said during the 2008 campaign, because I knew it was just fatuous campaign rhetoric. But he didn't abandon those claims after he was elected, and I remember thinking, "Ohmigod, he actually believes all the crap."
But Obama has gotten some painful lessons since then. He would cure global warming, close Guantanamo, become friendly with Iran and North Korea, bring a two-state solution to Palestinians and Israelis, beat the Taliban and al-Qaeda, end the financial crisis, reflate the real estate and stock market bubbles and, of course, provide universal health care. All of these objectives have been total failures, the sole exception being his health care program, which is going to be an economic disaster if it's not heavily modified.
As I've written dozens of times since 2008, it's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. What politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history. It's a consequence of that basic principle that whatever was going to happen in the Obama administration is the same thing that would have happened in additional Bush administrations, because it was the result of generational forces.
There's another generational connection to be made in this picture. Why should anyone be surprised that the IRS is full of people who are using the power of the IRS to target political enemies? It's just a few years ago that an entire generation -- Generation-X -- of financial engineers in the banking system created tens of trillions of dollars of fraudulent subprime mortgage-backed securities and sold them as AAA-rated. Then you have the widespread Libor fixing crimes, then energy-fixing crimes, various crimes in the computer industry that I've seen with my own eyes. And you have experts on CNBC every day lie about stock valuations. (As an aside, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio, as reported by Friday's Wall Street Journal is an astronomically high value of 18.38, meaning that stocks are far overpriced.)
So if thousands of financial institutions caused the financial crisis by creating tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent securities, then of course the IRS is going to perform its own version of fraud and extortion. The same is going to be true at other government agencies. Why would anyone believe anything else?
And what about the bank presidents. Did they know what was going on? How stupid would they have to be not to know that their bank was making millions of dollars selling trillions of dollars in fraudulent securities? Of course they knew what was going on, and of course they've been lying about it.
And what about President Obama. Did he know what was going on at the IRS? How stupid would he have to be not to know that the IRS was targeting his political opponents in the middle of his reelection campaign? Of course he knew what was going on, and of course he's been lying about it.
President Obama's repeated failures have been tremendous learning experiences for him. And this weekend, he's had another learning experience -- his "terrific" meeting with China's president Xi Jinping must surely have opened his eyes to the fact that things are not going to go in the direction he was hoping even a month ago. Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jun-13 World View -- The deafening silence following the Xi/Obama summit thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Jun-2013)
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Pakistan strongly protests Friday's drone strike
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Saying that his meeting with China's president Xi Jinping was "terrific," President Barack Obama met with the Chinese leader for several hours on Friday and Saturday. Prior to the meeting, both leaders endorsed a "new model" of U.S.-China cooperation. Prior to the meeting, Obama said:
"This will give me an opportunity to reiterate how the United States welcomes the continuing peaceful rise of China as world power and that in fact it is in the United States' interest that China continues on the path of success.The United States seeks an international economy and seeks an international economic order where nations are playing by the same rules, where trade is free and fair and where the United States and China work together to address issues like cybersecurity and protection of intellectual property."
Xi also called for "a new model of major country relations," and said,
"I’m confident that our meeting will achieve positive outcomes and inject fresh momentum into the China-U.S. relationship."
Neither American president Franklin Delano Roosevelt nor British prime minister Winston Churchill ever met Germany's Fuhrer Adolf Hitler face to face. However, Churchill's predecessor, Neville Chamberlain did meet Hitler face to face in Berlin, and came back to Britain promising "peace in our time." He came with an agreement signed by Hitler that promised a new model of British-German cooperation. The agreement said:
"We, the German Führer and Chancellor, and the British Prime Minister, have had a further meeting today and are agreed in recognizing that the question of Anglo-German relations is of the first importance for our two countries and for Europe.We regard the agreement signed last night and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement as symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another again. We are resolved that the method of consultation shall be the method adopted to deal with any other questions that may concern our two countries, and we are determined to continue our efforts to remove possible sources of difference, and thus to contribute to assure the peace of Europe."
The agreement met with worldwide praise, and was considered to be a historic turning point in German-British relations, in that disagreements would be solved by diplomacy and negotiation.
After the war, Hitler's comments on the meeting were revealed:
"Well, he seemed such a nice old gentleman, I thought I would give him my autograph as a souvenir."
Pakistan summoned the U.S. Charge d'Affaires on Saturday to protest Friday's drone strike (see "8-Jun-13 World View -- U.S. snubs Pakistan with new drone strikes in Waziristan"). Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:
"On the Prime Minister’s [Nawaz Sharif] instructions, the US Charge d’ Affaires, Ambassador Richard Hoagland was summoned this afternoon to the Foreign Office by Special Assistant to the Prime Minister and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Tariq Fatemi to lodge a strong protest on the US drone strike carried out in North Waziristan on 07 June 2013. The US official was handed a demarche in this regard.It was conveyed to the US CdA that the Government of Pakistan strongly condemns the drone strikes which are a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The importance of bringing an immediate end to drone strikes was emphasized.
It was also pointed out that the Government of Pakistan has consistently maintained that drone strikes are counter-productive, entail loss of innocent civilian lives and have human rights and humanitarian implications.
It was also stressed that these drone strikes have a negative impact on the mutual desire of both countries to forge a cordial and cooperative relationship and to ensure peace and stability in the region."
Friday's drone strike killed a key Pakistani Taliban commander, Mutaqi alias Bahadar Khan, along with six suspected militants. The drone strikes are extremely unpopular with the Pakistani people, many of whom blame the frequent terrorist violence on the drone strikes. The drone strikes were a major issue in the recent elections that brought Nawaz Sharif to power, and he has demanded several times that they end. However, this puts him in apparent conflict with Pakistan's army and intelligence services, who are thought to favor the drone strikes as an important tool in the fight against the Taliban. Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Dawn (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jun-13 World View -- Obama and China's Xi Jinping endorse new cooperative relationship thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(9-Jun-2013)
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Greece's economy continues its collapse, as the IMF blames the EU
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It was just two days ago that the brand new prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, said that the U.S. must call off its drone campaign:
"We respect the sovereignty of others and they should respect our sovereignty and independence. This campaign must come to an end now."
He has also criticized the drone strike that killed Waliur Rehman, the second in command in Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan Taliban, two weeks ago.
On Friday, the U.S. apparently snubbed Sharif's call by launching a drone that fired two missiles at suspected militants in Waziristan in Pakistan's tribal region, killing seven and injuring three others. The new drone strike is sure to become a major political issue in Pakistan, and widen an existing fault line between the politicians, who oppose the drone strikes, and the Pakistan intelligence agencies, which favor them. Tribune (Pakistan) and VOA
There was a bit of humor on Friday, when Russia's president Vladimir Putin offered Russian troops to replace the Austrian troops that are pulling out of the peacekeeping force on the border between Syria and Israel because it's become too dangerous there, as we reported yesterday.
Having Russian troops on the border between Syria and Israel would be such a great idea. They're already in Syria helping out president Bashar al-Assad massacre innocent civilians, and in their new role they could join Hezbollah in more slaughter.
Unfortunately for Putin, the United Nations rejected the offer because an agreement between Israel and Syria bars permanent members of the Security Council from the peacekeeping mission. Reuters and Debka
Greece's economy contracted an astronomical 5.6% in the first quarter of 2013, in the 19th straight quarter of decline, according to a report issued on Friday. The entire Greece bailout program was based on the assumption that Greece's economy would have started to grow long before now, and there have been predictions of "growth next year" for several years. In fact, Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras is predicting growth in 2014, as part of his standard ritual.
The finger-pointing is in full gear. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report on Thursday blaming the European Union for not questioning Greece's lies about its economy when in joined the euro currency, and then mis-handling the bailout. In response, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn hit back calling that revisionist history. He said: "I don’t think it’s fair and just that (the IMF) is trying to wash its hands and throw dirty water on European shoulders," saying that the IMF did not oppose any of the bailout steps that were taken. In fact, I said repeatedly that there was no solution to the Greece problem, and there were others who also expressed doubts. I pointed out misrepresentations and outright lies by European officials during the various meetings to approve bailouts.
Now crunch time is getting closer. Greece needs another bailout payment by the end of this month to avoid bankruptcy, and the lies aren't working that well any more. Euro News and Greek Reporter and IMF report on Greece (PDF)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jun-13 World View -- U.S. snubs Pakistan with new drone strikes in Waziristan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(8-Jun-2013)
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North Korea goes on a charm offensive
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In 2008, I wrote "Putin angrily denies divorce rumors and shuts down newspaper reporting them", and described how Russia's president Vladimir Putin terrorized a female reporter at a joint press conference with Silvio Berlusconi when she asked a question about a rumored affair with Alina Kabaeva, while Berlusconi helped out by gesturing with his hand pretending to shoot the reporter. At the 2008 press conference, Putin derided the "snotty noses and erotic fantasies" of the journalists reporting the rumors, which he denied, saying:
"There is not a word of truth in this story. Politicians live in glass houses, everyone wants to know how they live, but there are limits and there is a private life and these limits should be respected. ... Other publications of a similar nature have in the past mentioned similar stories about me and women entertainers and attractive young girls and it will come as no surprise to you that I don't like them."
That's not the only thing that Putin was lying about in 2008. He was also lying by denying that he had an arrangement with Dmitry Medvedev to become President again in 2012.
So now it turns out that Putin, 60, is president again, and he's divorcing his wife, and the continuing affair with rhythmical gymnast Alina Kabaeva, 30, may well be the reason. If you have a few minutes, watch this hot 2004 video of Kabaeva's award-winning performance. You'll never look at a ball the same way again.
Putin was married to Lyudmila Putina for 30 years, and they have two daughters, 27 and 28. Kabaeva is also rumored to have two children by Putin, though she denies it. Telegraph
The entire United Nations peacekeeping effort in the Golan Heights on the border between Syria and Israel is in jeopardy after Austria's announcement that it's withdrawing its 380 troops from 1,000 member force, because the peacekeepers' lives are in danger. The announcement came after fighting broke out on the border on Thursday between Syria's army troops and opposition rebel fighters, wounding a peacekeeper from the Philippines. The peacekeeping force has been in place since 1974, and the border has been peaceful until now. The U.N. is searching for a country that will replace Austria, and Israel is moving additional troops into the border area, preventing some Israeli farmers from reaching their farms. Reuters and VOA
The North Koreans made a surprise proposal on Thursday to hold talks on reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex. North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un shut down the complex two months ago when he threw his temper tantrum, threatening to shoot missiles at Japan, South Korea, and America. On Thursday, the North Korean Central News Agency announced:
"We propose holding talks between authorities of the north and south for the normalization of operations at Kaesong and the resumption of tours to Mt. Kumkang on the occasion of the anniversary of the June 15 joint declaration."
Kaesong was a major source of hard currency for the North Koreans, so the child dictator's temper tantrum has cost North Korea a great deal of money. The motivation for the new charm offensive is to stop the bleeding. Yonhap (Seoul)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jun-13 World View -- Austria quits U.N. peacekeeping force on Syria-Israel border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(7-Jun-2013)
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Thousands of American troops to Jordan for 'Eager Lion'
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Syria's army scored a decisive victory on Wednesday in the strategic town of Qusair which controls major transportation routes in southwest Syria. According to the Syrian army:
"We will not hesitate to crush with an iron fist those who attack us. ... Their fate is surrender or death. We will continue our string of victories until we regain every inch of Syrian land. [The capture was] a clear message to all those participating in the aggression against Syria."
Analysts are saying that the capture of Qusair gives a tremendous boost to Hezbollah, which will now be empowered to continue openly fighting along side the Syrian regime's army. According to Lebanese retired general Hisham Jaber:
"Hezbollah will fight anywhere in Syria that requires guerrilla warfare tactics. It fought in Qusair because street battles were required there, and I do not rule out the possibility that it will join more street battles in Aleppo as well. The Syrian army is incapable of fighting street battles."
A Hezbollah supporter, Lebanese retired Gen. Amin Hoteit, agreed:
"The equation is clear, Syria is being subjected to Western aggression spearheaded by Israel. This means that Hezbollah is actually fighting Israel and it is ready to do this anywhere in Syria.By joining the war, Hezbollah and Syria are affirming the strategy of the resistance axis, which is ... together we confront the same danger."
The Qusair represents a major victory for Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, for Hizbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and for Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Daily Star (Beirut) and Daily Star (Beirut)
The gloating by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon's terrorist group Hezbollah is raising nationalist fervor outside of Syria, and is renewing the debate whether the West should intervene military.
Both Susan Rice and Samantha Power, both of whom were given national security promotions on Wednesday by the Obama Administration, have been advocates in the past of military intervention in the Darfur crisis civil war. As I've written in the past, military intervention in Darfur would have been a disastrous error. (See "Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war" from 2007.)
So at the very least, these two women's appointments can be expected to heat up the debate whether America should intervene militarily, especially after the humiliation of seeing Russia's clients score a critical victory against America's clients.
There is already a bitter division in the cabinet of Britain's prime minister David Cameron. Cameron himself favors military intervention, but at least five members of his capability oppose intervention, argue that supplying weapons to the Free Syrian Army might only escalate the conflict, killing many more people, without any realistic prospect of providing a decisive victory for the rebels.
Analysts that I heard on Wednesday are split on the significance of the regime's Qusair victory, with some downplaying the significance of Qusair, and others saying that it's important, but its loss is part of the "ebb and flow" of the war.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, one must recognize the possibility that al-Assad's Qusair victory may lead to the complete collapse of the rebel side. As I've written many, many times, Syria is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, with little desire among the Syrian people for a war. The war has been propelled entirely by the psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad, with heavy weapons supplied by Russia and Iran, and guerilla fighters supplied by Hezbollah. Without that outside support, al-Assad's army would have collapsed long ago. But with that support, it's the rebel side that vulnerable to collapse, and that collapse may be close.
In that event, there are almost certainly going to be bitter recriminations in the West, as this will be the third such loss that might be blamed on the Obama administration:
The politics of this situation cannot easily be predicted, but Americans do not like to lose wars, or even appear to have lost wars, especially to dictators and terrorists. It's possible that the loss of Syria will trigger a nationalistic backlash in America, and a renewal of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Bloomberg and Independent (London)
There are various reports about thousands of American soldiers, as well as F-16 warplanes, Patriot missile systems, being deployed to Jordan this week. These deployments are being ignored by the mainstream media, but they're not secret either, as they're part of a long-scheduled military exercise called "Eager Lion 2013," scheduled for later this month. The exercise will involve about 8,000 personnel. About 5,000 of those will be U.S., and about 3,000 will be Jordanian. Other participating countries include Britain, Bahrain, Canada, the Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iraq, Italy, Lebanon, Pakistan, Poland, Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
The heavy involvement of American forces and equipment is raising questions about whether something further is planned besides the military exercises. Possibilities include: military intervention in Syria, providing heavy weapons to the Syrian rebels, simply sending a message to Russia, Iran and al-Assad, or providing military support for Jordan, an American ally. Debka and UPI and Army.mil
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jun-13 World View -- Syria and Hezbollah gloat over victory in town of Qusair thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(6-Jun-2013)
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Hezbollah may be planning new war with Israel
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Tuesday is the 24th anniversary of the start of China's Tiananmen Square massacre. On June 4, 1989, China's military massacred thousands of unarmed students who were demonstrating peacefully in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. In China it's still forbidden to talk about the massacre, and you can be jailed and tortured for doing so. But in many ways, the Tiananmen Square massacre was a turning point for China. It triggered the Falun Gong protest movement in China, which has also been violently suppressed. In Taiwan, it triggered the Wild Lily rebellion, which led to the activist movement demanding Taiwan's nationhood and independence from China. Hong Kong is the only place in China where it's still legal to talk about the Tiananmen Square massacre, and on Tuesday, more than 100,000 protesters have flocked to Hong Kong's Victoria Park to mark the 24th anniversary, and to demand freedom from the Beijing government. Telegraph (London)
Empty rhetoric abounded again on Tuesday after France's foreign minister Laurent Fabius announced on television that the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad used sarin gas against the opposition with "no doubt":
"There is no doubt that it’s the regime and its accomplices [are responsible for using sarin gas]. ...All options are on the table. That means either we decide not to react or we decide to react including by armed actions targeting the place where the gas is stored."
The conclusion was reached by lab analysis of soil samples smuggled out of Syria.
Actually, there's a third option besides deciding to react or deciding not to react. The third option is not to decide anything, and that will undoubtedly be the option taken. President Barack Obama in the past has said that al-Assad regime use of chemical or biological weapons would be "a red line," and crossing it would draw military action. On Tuesday, the White House said that more proof was needed. France 24 and BBC
Syria's army continues to win battles against the rebels, and the rebels are all but defeated in and around Damascus. Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong and sometimes predicts imminent wars that don't occur, is quoting its military intelligence sources as saying Hezbollah has taken advantage of the Assad regime's victory around Damascus to move militia units equipped with heavy arms and missiles toward the Syrian-Israeli border. According to the report, a Hezbollah attack across the border into Israel could be only days away. Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jun-13 World View -- France says there's 'no doubt' that Syria regime used sarin gas thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Jun-2013)
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Russia grabs Georgian territory for South Ossetia
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The next 3.3 billion euro installment in the bailout of Greece is due at the end of June if Greece is to avoid going bankrupt, and so representatives of the "troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- are returning to Greece to turn the screws and make sure that the government meets its previous promises and commitments. The big issue is that Greece has committed to sacking 15,000 civil servants by the end of 2014. They've already gotten the concession that only 4,000 need be sacked in 2013, postponing 11,000 to next year. However, as it turns out, only 99 civil servants have been fired since July of last year. Kathimerini
Greece has had six years of recession, and the pressure to sack 4,000 civil servants this year comes as Greece's far-right neo-Nazi Golden Dawn political party is gaining in popularity. (The phrase "far-right" has different meanings in Europe and America.) Violence against immigrants is increasing, and last week several thousand Golden Dawn supporters attended a rally in central Athens, holding Greek flags and fire torches, chanting "Foreigners out of Greece." Both the European Union and human rights groups are pressuring Greek officials to toughen xenophobia and racism, and these demands have split the governing coalition. The left wing coalition partners, the Socialist Pasok party and Democratic Left, favor strong measures such as criminalizing incitement to commit racial violence or denying Nazi crimes during WW II. However, conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and his center-right New Democracy party refuse to endorse such laws, saying that new laws would have no effect. The new laws could cause other problems. If, for example, the denial of genocide is explicitly criminalized, then conservative deputies would probably want to tackle the issue of whether someone who denies Armenian genocide should face a prison sentence - a debate that is likely to create foreign policy tensions. Deutsche Welle and AP
Russia appears to be using the same kinds of tactics that China uses in India and the South China sea -- just use the military to grab territory and then argue that it was theirs all along. When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, it took control of two Georgian provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and has discussed the possibility of either absorbing them into Russia or recognizing them as independent nations. Last week, Russian border guards in South Ossetia put up wire fences along the South Ossetia border, and in doing so moved the border 300 meters deep into the village of Ditsi in Georgia, cutting off arable lands and sources of water from Ditsi residents. It's thought that the reason that the Russians are showing contempt for the Georgian politicians is that they want to pressure Georgia into staying out of Nato. Georgia is anxious to join Nato, in order to gain leverage against Russia. Georgia is a significant contributor to Euro-Atlantic security, and is a large troop contributor to the war in Afghanistan. The new incident in Ditsi is raising the Georgian population's sense of insecurity, and is raising concerns in Nato. Jamestown and Azer News (Baku)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jun-13 World View -- Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party popularity grows thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(4-Jun-2013)
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Syria's conflict spills over into Lebanon
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With China's new government in power, led by president Xi Jinping, the new prime minister Li Keqiang chose India as his first international visit, with the nominal objectives of reducing tensions in at least three areas: India/China border disputes, trade and commercial relations, and China-Pakistan relations. An analysis from the point of view of India indicates failures in all three areas.
Li Keqiang's visit to India was overshadowed by a recent incident in the Depsang Plain region of the border between China and India. On April 15, China's military intruded 19 kilometers past the agreed "line of actual control" (LAC) that supposedly defines the India/China border, into the Depsang Plain. The intrusion threatened a 750 square km region whose access was blocked by China's military. According to Indian analysts, China's has used this technique frequently during the past few decades: Use the military to take control of a piece of Indian territory, then claim "indisputable" sovereignty via some distant historical claim -- the same technique that the Chinese have used time after time in the South China Sea.
From the Indian point of view, India forced the Chinese to retreat by resorting to diplomatic hardball: Specifically, the Indians threatened to cancel Li Keqiang's trip unless the Chinese pulled out, which they did. One may assume that India's victory will be short-lived, as China can return to its previous behavior now that Li's visit has ended. India Times and The Hindu
For the three nominal reasons for Li's visit to India, little or nothing was accomplished from the Indian point of view:
The Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) (New Delhi)
The Syria conflict continues to spill over into Lebanon where, for the first time, Syria's opposition fighters are carrying the fight into Lebanon, in response to last week's announcement by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that Hezbollah fighters would actively fight alongside the Syrian army in Syria. The clashes in Lebanon occur just as it appears that the Syrian army is close to winning a major victory in Qusair, Syria, where thousands of civilians are trapped and are under attack. Al-Jazeera and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jun-13 World View -- China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Jun-2013)
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Police crackdown in Turkey sparks huge anti-government rallies
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A simple protest of plans to turn Gezi Park in Istanbul, Turkey, into a shopping center began peacefully on Tuesday with 50 activist neighbors of the park. They set up "occupy" type tents to prevent trees from being removed. One politician even stood before an excavation backhoe to block it, comparing himself to the man who stood before the tanks in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, or Boris Yeltsin climbing on a tank in Moscow's Red Square. Things changed early Friday morning, when the police cracked down and attacked the demonstrators with tear gas canisters and water cannon. By Saturday, the small protest had grown into an anti-government protest by thousands of demonstrators in Istanbul and with copycat protests in cities across Turkey, demanding that Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan step down. It's expected that the protests will simmer down at some point, but some people are comparing them to the initial protests in 2010 that led the Arab Spring. Zaman (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey)
China, which is pursuing a policy of using its vast military power to confiscate as much of other nations' territory as it can, blasted the Philippines on Thursday for delays in removing a warship that was grounded on the Ayungin Shoal / Renai Reef near the Spratly Islands in 1999. China is calling the grounded ship a "serious encroachment of territorial sovereignty," and warned the Philippines not to stir up any more trouble in the South China Sea. China is claiming "indisputable" sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including many regions that have historically belonged to other countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. All these nations, except Brunei, have troops stationed on various islands in the Spratlys to assert their respective claims. China is demanding that each of these nations avoid trouble by simply giving up their claims, and turning the entire region over to Chinese sovereignty. China Daily and The Tribune (Philippines)
According to a new report by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), "the complexity, sensitivity and uncertainty of China's security environment loom large." Territorial disputes between China and Japan, and also between China and various countries bordering the South China Sea, are becoming fiercer, and has even provoked interference by the United States. According to Yue Gang, a retired PLA colonel, China has always faced these confrontations, especially since it has become the largest communist state:
"But that was a confrontation over ideology, while this time it is about territorial dispute. Any compromise in these disputes will trigger a wave of nationalist movements in the relevant countries."
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jun-13 World View -- China blasts Philippines over stranded warship from 1999 thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(2-Jun-2013)
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Eurozone unemployment at historic highs
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Pakistan's incoming Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, is reportedly "irritated" by a drone attack earlier this week that killed the second in command in the Pakistan branch of the Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Sharif on Friday expressed "serious concern and deep disappointment" over the drone strike. He said that he would ask the United States to "exercise restraint and give peace a chance":
"The drone attack is not only a violation of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity but also an action that has been declared a violation of international law and UN charter."
And aide to Sharif said that the drone strike was highly regrettable, "particularly as [President Obama] had spoken of initiating a new policy which would ensure greater exercise of care and caution in the use of this technology." Dawn (Pakistan)
Sharif has been advocating a negotiated peace with the TTP, and is now blaming the U.S. for a breakdown in the negotiations. The whole negotiated peace concept is a fantasy, as if the TTP-linked Lashkar-e-Jhangvi would ever give up targeting Shia and Sufi shrines across Pakistan and Afghanistan. (See "17-Feb-13 World View -- Another horrific bomb attack targets Shias in Quetta, Pakistan") Nonetheless, a politician's job in any country is to promote such fantasies.
Sharif, 63, has been prime minister twice before. During the 1980s, when the Afghan government was backed by the Soviet Union, Sharif backed the jihadists who were a precursor to the Taliban, and then backed the Taliban when they took over in 1997. The brutal Taliban government was not dislodged until the American invasion of Afghanistan that followed the terrorist attacks on 9/11/2001.
Now, many Afghan leaders foresee a repeat of Sharif's earlier policies, including support for a Taliban coup against the current government in Kabul. Sharif's plans for peace negotiations with the TTP (Pakistan Taliban) are seen as a way of allowing TTP to redirect attacks away from Pakistan, and to join with the Afghan Taliban to attack targets within Afghanistan. According to one Afghan MP:
"There can be no hope his policies will lead to an improvement in relations with Afghanistan. He was the individual who set about destroying this country once the pro-Soviet regime collapsed, and we are still burning in that fire."
Institute for War & Peace Reporting (London) and The Nation (Pakistan)
Unemployment reached a 12.2% in the 17-nation eurozone in April, marking a new record since the EU began tracking the figures in 1995. Unemployment reached record levels in France, while youth unemployment reached 40% in France and Italy, and 65% in Greece. European officials are now increasingly concerned about a social breakdown from the financial crisis, as happened in 1933 when the Nazis came to power in Germany.
At the same time, consumer price inflation was at 1.4% in May, far below the predicted level of 2%. The weak inflation is expected to lead to pressure on the European Central Bank to "print" a lot more money in the form of quantitative easing, though that hasn't helped the general economy so far. And in Japan, where the Bank of Japan has been pouring out astronomically high amounts of quantitative easing, the core inflation rate fell 0.4% in April, for the sixth straight month of decline.
As I've been saying on my web site for almost ten years now, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics what we're seeing now is a worldwide deflationary spiral, the first since the 1930s. This is caused by generational behaviors and attitudes, and no amount of quantitative easing can stop it. Reuters and Japan Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jun-13 World View -- Pakistan condemns American drone strikes thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(1-Jun-2013)
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Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004
