Dynamics
|
|
Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
| HOME WEB LOG COUNTRY WIKI COMMENT FORUM DOWNLOADS ABOUT | |
Vladimir Putin tops Obama as world's most powerful man
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was in Washington on Wednesday, meeting with the vice president and congressional leaders, requesting military aid in the form of Apache attack helicopters and other weapons. When Americans withdrew from Iraq in December, 2001, al-Maliki was quite certain that no further American military aid would be required, and that Iraq could take care of itself. However, since the American departure, violence from Sunni jihadists has been increasing every month, with more than 7,500 deaths so far this year, so now al-Maliki is singing a different tune. On Friday, al-Maliki will meet with President Obama in the White House. Global Post and VOA
Israel announced plans on Wednesday to build more than 1,500 new homes in Jewish settlements in east Jerusalem and the West Bank. As usual, there were expressions of condemnation from Palestinians and from United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon. In the past, Israel has argued that new settlements are only being built in areas of the West Bank that would belong to Israel under any foreseeable peace deal with the Palestinians. Wednesday's announce settlements are particularly divisive, however, several of the settlements are deep inside the West Bank and almost certainly would have to be dismantled as part of a peace deal. Some reports say that the announcement "deals a setback" to the ongoing peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, but those peace talks are considered to be a joke by most observers in the Mideast anyway, incapable of being "set back" any further than they already are. Analysts are always offering various theories about a "solution" to the Mideast problem, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics there is one and only one "solution" that settles the Mideast problem: A major war. Either Israel will survive such a war or it won't, but either way, the problem will be settled, and a "solution" will have been determined. AP
For the first time in years, the Forbes Magazine list of the most powerful people in the world does not put the U.S. president in first place. That honor goes to Russia's president Vladimir Putin:
"Putin has solidified his control over Russia and anyone watching the chess match over Syria has a clear idea of the shift in the power towards Putin on the global stage. The ex-KGB strongman--who controls a nuclear-tipped army, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and some of the world's largest oil and gas reserves--is allowed to serve another six-year term, which could keep him in office until 2024."
President Obama is in second place:
"His signature legislation, Obamacare, is under fire, U.S. allies are outraged over NSA surveillance overseas and the government shutdown for 16 days in October begs the question: who's in control here? It appears that President Obama's lame duck period has set in earlier than usual for a two-term president, causing him to drop one notch from the No. 1 spot. To be sure, though, Obama remains in charge of the the most powerful nation in the world, with the largest, most innovative economy and the deadliest military."
The top ten names in the list are:
Forbes and Australian Broadcasting
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Oct-13 World View -- Iraq's prime minister begs for military aid from Washington thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Britain will be issuing bonds compliant with Sharia law
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Madagascar seems to be facing one Biblical affliction after another. Last February, at the height of summer in the southern hemisphere island-nation off the coast of Africa, Madagascar was struck by a huge tropical cyclone, destroying many crops just before harvest. The cyclone soaked the island, increasing the rat population, leading to a potential bubonic plague epidemic, as we reported earlier this month. The water also produced the perfect environment for the breeding of locusts, and recent swarms of locusts were so thick that they blocked out the sun. They ate most of the rice and corn crops, leaving about 1/3 of the population hungry. The U.N.'s World Food Program (WPF) is providing food aid, and needs $41 million for an insecticide campaign to eradicate the locusts, which are now on the ground, reproducing and laying eggs. Unless this eradication campaign can begin immediately, most of the island's crops will be destroyed next year, leading to a massive famine. Al Jazeera
Britain's prime minister David Cameron announced on Tuesday at the World Islamic Economic Forum in London that the UK would be issuing bonds that are compliant with Sharia (Islamic) law, in order to encourage more Islamic investors to use London's banking system and the London Stock Exchange. Under Sharia law, transactions may not involve forbidden subjects such as gambling or drugs or alcohol. The most well-known restriction under Sharia finance is that investors may not charge or receive interest payments. Muslim bankers have developed a variety of techniques for getting around this restriction. For example, instead of making a car loan to someone to purchase a car, the bank can purchase the car, then lease the car back to the driver. This is considered to be compliant with Sharia law because the bank is not just lending money, but is actually involved in the transaction in a material way. The market for Sharia compliant bonds was almost non-existent 15 years ago, but has now grown to $140 billion in 2012. BBC and Forbes
 |
China's government is ordering all newspapers to suppress news about a deadly car crash in Beijing's central Tiananmen Square, the symbolic heart of Chinese state power, that killed five people and injured dozens. The newspapers are permitted to mention the incident in general terms, but they're forbidden from reporting that the government believes that the incident was a terrorist attack by Uighur Muslims who drove their car from far away Xinjiang province in northwestern China to Beijing in eastern China. In addition, China's army of internet censors is deleting any postings or photos that portray the terror attack.
Turkic-speaking Muslim Uighurs live in Xinjiang province, which has been a source of activist violence and separatist demands. China has responded with violent crackdowns, and attempted to flood the province with Han Chinese transplants, in a failing attempt to pacify the Uighurs by diluting their population. (Paragraph corrected. 30-Oct)
China has all but closed off Xinjiang province to outsiders, especially journalists, to avoid being embarrassed by the Uighur hostility towards the government. The terrorist attack on Tiananmen Square by Uighurs is, thus, also extremely embarrassing to China's government, and that's why China's army of censors is working overtime to keep the news as hidden as possible. Australian Broadcasting and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Oct-13 World View -- China scrambles to suppress Tiananmen Square terror attack reports thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Robert Reich: Obamacare is Nixon's health care plan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
America and New Zealand announced a resumption of military-to-military contacts for the first time since 1986, when Washington ordered a military embargo after New Zealand banned all nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered submarines from entering its waters. The ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand, U.S.) mutual defense treaty that was signed in the wake of World War II was partially suspended in 1984, leading to the embargo. The change in policy is part of the announced plans by the Obama administration to "pivot" to the Asia Pacific. Next year, a New Zealand ship will be permitted to dock at Pearl Harbor for the first time since 1986. However, none of the announcements or press conference transcripts indicated whether New Zealand is going to change its policies, and permit nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered submarines from entering its waters. Dept. of Defense and Australian Broadcasting
On Tuesday evening, Israel will release 26 Palestinian prisoners who have been in jail since prior to the 1993 Oslo Accords. The prisoners are being released in conjunction with the current "peace talks" going on between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators. In order to keep the Palestinians from walking out of the talks, Israel agreed to release a few dozen prisoners every two months. Tuesday will be the second of four planned releases. Thousands of Israelis are protesting the release, because almost all of the prisoners were convicted of kidnapping, lynching or murdering Israelis, or torturing and executing suspected Palestinian collaborators. Palestinian officials argue that they should have been released long ago (as part of the Sept. 4, 1999, Sharm el-Sheikh agreement), and add that the released prisoners will be given a heroes welcome when they return home. Jerusalem Post and Al Monitor
Left-wing political economist Robert Reich is saying that the Obamacare health plan is the same as the plan advocated by president Richard Nixon:
"In February 1974, Republican President Richard Nixon proposed, in essence, today's Affordable Care Act. Under Nixon's plan all but the smallest employers would provide insurance to their workers or pay a penalty, an expanded Medicaid-type program would insure the poor, and subsidies would be provided to low-income individuals and small employers. Sound familiar?"
This is a startling revelation, but in a sense it's not surprising at all. Nixon's wage-price controls were exactly the kind of "liberal, progressive" program that Robert Reich would love, and yet they were an absolute disaster for the U.S. economy. As I've written many times since 2009, Obamacare is a repeat of Nixon's wage-price controls (see, for example, "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse".)
In his quote above, Robert Reich referred to the date February, 1974. I've previously referred to William N. Walker's history of Nixon's wage-price controls. According to Walker, here's what happened in February, 1974:
"This bitter legacy -- shortages of gasoline, heating oil, red meat, soybeans and numerous other products -- together with ruinous price increases, finally discredited price controls in the eyes of the American people. By February 1974, when Dunlop appeared before the Senate Banking Committee, there were sixty Amendments proposed to the Economic Stabilization Act aimed at providing relief from controls to one segment of the economy or another. Dunlop told the Committee that the Administration did not favor continuing price controls after April 30 1974, except in the health care industry (and except in petroleum where authority to administer price controls and allocation regulations had been transferred to the Federal Energy Office in early January 1974). In the end, the Congress simply allowed the Economic Stabilization Act to expire on April 30, 1974. Thus, the only peacetime experiment with direct economic controls in U.S. history came to an inglorious end."
So Nixon's wage-price controls were coming apart at the seams in February, 1974, just as Obamacare is coming apart at the seams today. If Reich is correct, and Nixon was pushing an Obamacare-like program at that time, it was probably a last desperate attempt to preserve his legacy, at a time when his economic policy was facing disaster, and he was facing Watergate.
President Obama is almost identical to President Nixon. Like Nixon, Obama uses the IRS to punish political enemies, he threatens the press with retribution, and now, according to Reich, he's even pushing Nixon's health care program. Huffington Post and CBS News and Daily Caller
Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro, the hand-picked successor to the late Hugo Chávez, has announced the Venezuela will create a Vice-Ministry for the Supreme Social Happiness, to coordinate all the "mission" programs created by the Chávez before his death to alleviate poverty. As we described last month in "26-Sep-13 World View -- Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation", the country is plagued by shortages of everything from milk and cooking oil to toothpaste and toilet paper. After Maduro's new announcement, a Caracas fruit vendor was quoted as saying he wants Maduro to create a vice ministry of beer, saying, "That would make me, and all the drunks, happy." However, a Venezuelan official says that "What [the critics] demonstrate is stupidity and bad intention," and added that the name of the new ministry is related to Venezuela's liberator, Simón Bolivar. AP and Venezuelanalysis
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Oct-13 World View -- New Zealand and U.S. resume military cooperation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Volgograd Russia suicide bombing raises question about Sochi Olympics
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Iranian officials have ordered the removal of unauthorized anti-American posters. The posters referred to the proposed negotiations between Americans and Iranians, and graphically implied that Americans would be dishonest. The implication is that the real American goal in the negotiations is to attack Iran militarily.
This very public dispute is the latest event in the political conflict between the two sides in Iran's generational Awakening era "generation gap." In 2009, we saw large demonstrations of young people protesting the reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for president. Those protests were crushed by force.
But what we've seen this week were protests by groups representing the older generation, the survivors of the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979. The posters were public protests by this group wanting to maintain the "Death to America" culture that's pervaded Iran since 1979.
During America's last generational Awakening era, in the 1960s, there were massive protests by young people, and those are what's remembered today. However, it's rare to recall the occasional protests by political conservatives, especially during the 1964 presidential bid of Barry Goldwater.
The hardline Tehran poster protesters are not finished yet. On November 4, the 24th anniversary of the storming of the American embassy in Tehran, the "Death to America Committee" will lead a huge rally at the embassy building:
"The crimes of U.S. leaders and international Zionism in dealing with Iran’s great nation will never be erased from public memories and minds."
Large crowds are expected to be present, chanting "Death to America!" khanetarrahan.ir and Reuters and Fox News
A coordinated series of car bombings across Baghdad, as well as a suicide assault in a northern city, killed at least 62 people in Shia neighborhoods across Iraq on Sunday. Although no one has yet claimed credit, it's assumed that the new attacks were perpetrated by the al-Qaeda linked Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The sectarian violence in Iraq has increased each month since the withdrawal of American troops in December 2011. AP
Suicide bombings in Russia usually occur in the North Caucasus, Russia's southern provinces. where tensions have been especially high since the war between Russia and Chechnya in the 1990s. But on October 21, a female suicide bomber blew herself up on a passenger bus in the city of Volgograd, from the Caucasus. It's thought that the terrorists were sending a message that they could strike anywhere in Russia, and the security forces couldn't stop them.
What Russian officials fear the most is an attack in Sochi, on the west end of the Caucasus, where the Winter Olympics will be held in February of next year. Militant groups have been threatening to disrupt the Olympics with terrorist attacks. Russian security forces have locked down the region around Sochi so tightly that it's possible that the attack was moved to Volgograd because an attack on Sochi was not possible.
Since the start of the second Russia-Chechnya war in 1999, there are been 78 suicide terrorist attacks on Russian territory by 121 suicide bombers, of whom 52 have been females. Female suicide bombers are often called "black widows," because it's assumed that they're avenging the deaths of their husbands in the Chechnya war. However, the Volgograd bomber was the wife of Dmitry Sokolov, who is very much alive. He's 22 years old, and was born in Moscow. In 2011, he left home, converted to Islam, and joined the militants in Dagestan in the North Caucasus. The suicide bomber herself was born in Dagestan. She married Sokolov, after which she immersed herself in Islam, and started wearing the hijab (head scarf). Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Oct-13 World View -- Iran officials order removal of anti-American posters in Tehran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Fear of a paralytic polio epidemic in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The dispute between Japan and China over the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands has not been in the news for a few months, but tensions have continued to grow. On Friday, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that many nations in the region are looking to Japan to counter China's attempt to use military force to change the status quo in Asia:
"I've realized that Japan is expected to exert leadership not just on the economic front, but also in the field of security in the Asia-Pacific.There are concerns that China is attempting to change the status quo by force, rather than by rule of law. But if China opts to take that path, then it won't be able to emerge peacefully.
So it shouldn't take that path, and many nations expect Japan to strongly assert that. And they hope that as a result, China will take responsible action in the international community."
China's Defense Ministry spokesman responded on Saturday:
"Don't underestimate the Chinese army's resolute will and determination to protect China's territorial sovereignty. If Japan does resort to enforcement measures like shooting down aircraft, that is a serious provocation to us, an act of war.We will undertake decisive action to strike back, with every consequence borne by the side that caused the trouble."
A Pakistan-based group by the name of Jaish al-Adl (the Army of Justice) has claimed responsibility for the deaths of at least 14 border guards, and took three hostages, on the border between Pakistan and Iran late Friday. A local prosecutor immediately responded by ordering the swift execution of 16 prisoners already in Iran's jails. It's unclear what the relationship is between Jaish al-Adl and the prisoners, but it's assumed that they're also jihadist terrorists, and Iran want to send a message of revenge.
It seems that there are always new al-Qaeda linked terrorist groups springing up in the Pakistan neighborhood. There's Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that targets Pakistan's government, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) targets India, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) wants to exterminate all Shias and Hazaras in Pakistan, Jundullah (Soldiers of God) perpetrated major attacks on Shia mosques and Revolutionary Guard stations in southeastern Iran, and now we have Jaish al-Adl (the Army of Justice) also targeting southeastern Iran. BBC and Tasnim News (Iran)
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed an agreement on Saturday to provide Egypt with $4.9 billion in aid. This includes the $1 billion grant that UAE already sent to Egypt immediately following the army coup that removed president Mohamed Morsi and the governing Muslim Brotherhood on July 3. When Morsi was deposed, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait pledged a total of $12 billion, an amount that dwarfs the $260 million in planned aid that the U.S. recently announced that it would delay. Reuters
At least 22 babies and toddlers are now believed to have contracted paralytic polio in Syria. If confirmed, it would be the first outbreak of polio in Syria in 14 years. When Syria's civil war began in 2011, some 95% of children were vaccinated against polio, but because of the war, some 500,000 children have not been immunized. More than 100,000 children, all under age 5, are now at risk of polio in the Deir Ezzor province, which has been the site of fierce fighting, and with the large flow of refugees, the World Health Organization (WHO) fears a possible epidemic. Polio has been largely eradicated in developed countries but remains endemic in Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Oct-13 World View -- Japan and China exchange threats as relations deteriorate thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Report: Palestinian leader Abbas signs peace deal with Syria's Assad
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
![Sasha Ruseva, left, the Bulgarian mother of ten children, dancing on Friday (AP) [Correction: This is one of Sasha's daughters.]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g131025b.jpg "Sasha Ruseva, left, the Bulgarian mother of ten children, dancing on Friday (AP) [Correction: This is one of Sasha's daughters.]") |
For days, European officials have been wondering how to solve a problem like Maria, and they've finally succeeded. Maria is the light-skinned, blond, blue-eyed girl, about 5 years old, living with a Roma Gypsy couple in Greece until last week. That's when authorities decided that the dark-skinned Gypsy couple couldn't possibly be the parents of Maria, and they decided that they must have kidnapped her. The Roma couple were put in jail, and Maria was put in the hands of social workers, while authorities conducted an international search for Maria's real parents. On Friday, a 35 year old Bulgarian woman, Sasha Ruseva, was shown by DNA tests to be Maria's biological mother, also the mother to ten other children. Ruseva says she gave birth to Maria while working in Greece:
"We gave her, we gifted her, without money. I didn't take any money. I didn't have any food to give to the kid. I saw it yesterday and I've been sick. I haven't eaten since last night."
However, Bulgarian officials are assuming that Ruseva did, in fact, take money for Maria, which would be a crime. It's possible that Ruseva went to Greece with the specific purpose of selling her new baby. There are reports that Ruseva and Atanas, her husband, are in jail.
While the story of Maria was unfolding, Irish officials were alerted to another blond, blue-eyed girl living with Roma parents in Ireland. The police grabbed the girl and turned her over to social workers. However, a DNA test revealed that the Roma Gypsy couple WERE the child's parents, after all, and the girl was returned to the parents' home.
These cases have raised concerns among Roma activists who fear that these two cases, and the media's handling of them, will lead to increased racism and racial profiling against Roma Gypsies. According to journalist Niko Ago:
"There are many losing from the development of the story. Not that they care a lot, though. They'll be waiting for the next story, to prove their racist and intolerant theories, wondering 'what has happened to this world where there are blonde Roma?' There are blonde Roma, just as there are dark-skinned amongst the advocates of the Nazi 'Aryan race' theory."
Toronto Star and CNN and BBC
Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong, is quoting its intelligence sources as saying that Fatah / Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas has blindsided U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and signed a deal with the psychopathic genocidal president Bashar al-Assad of Syria. The terms of the deal are that Abbas will convince the Palestinians living in refugee camps in Syria to lay down their arms and stop fighting al-Assad's forces and, in return, al-Assad will order his army to stop killing Palestinians. For Abbas, this deal gives him a political advantage over Hamas, the rules of Gaza, who had previously been al-Assad's allies but broke ranks because al-Assad was massively massacring innocent civilians in Syria, including many Palestinians. For al-Assad, this deal allows his army to concentrate on other rebel groups opposing him.
What I keep watching for in all these stories is the trend line that's leading to the coming sectarian war in the Mideast. At the highest level, this will be a war between Shia Muslims (Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, al-Assad in Syria) versus Sunni Muslims (Saudi Arabia). However, it's not for nothing that the ancient saying, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is attributed to Arabs. Among the Palestinians, Fatah/PA and Hamas have already been at war in 2008, and it's possible that this deal between Abbas and al-Assad indicates a trend toward Fatah/PA siding with the Shias in the coming war. Then, as I've said many times, I expect Israel to be allied with Iran against the Sunnis, and we might see a peace treaty between Israel and Fatah/PA leading to both of them allied against Hamas and Saudi Arabia. Granted, all of this is speculation, but it's well-informed speculation, and supported by Generational Dynamics trends that I've been writing about for years. Debka
The other half of the previous story is the trend line in Turkey's Mideast alliances. First, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a strong supporter of Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, and like Hamas, Erdogan is strongly opposed to any peace talks between Fatah/PA and Israel. Second, Erdogan's hostility toward Israel has been growing steadily since the deaths of nine Turkish citizens on May 31, 2010, in a confrontation between Israel's navy and the boat Mavi Marmara in a flotilla headed for Gaza in violation of Israel's Gaza blockade, and he's refused to normalize relations with Israel until Israel's blockade of Gaza is lifted. And third, Turkey is supporting the Sunni rebels fighting against the army of Bashar al-Assad, who used to be Erdogan's close ally prior to the Syrian civil war. On the other hand Hamas, which also used to be al-Assad's close ally, had its headquarters in Damascus Syria, and who used to receive cash infusions from Iran to fight Israel, is now in serious financial trouble, and is discussing with Erdogan the possibility of moving its headquarters from Qatar to Turkey, and getting aid from Turkey.
The role of Qatar brings up another set of trend line issues, in the context of what's happening in Egypt. Hamas was formed in 1988 as an offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. Erdogan is a strong supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Qatar generously funded Egypt's government when the Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed Morsi were in power. When the army deposed Morsi on July 3, the geopolitical balance changed rapidly. Qatar stopped providing aid to Egypt, and the slack was taken up by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait. Qatar had also been funding the Muslim Brotherhood faction in Syria fighting al-Assad, but the Syrian opposition factions chose leaders favored by Saudi Arabia. However, Qatar has now started providing support to Fatah/PA, raising problems for Hamas having its headquarters currently in Doha, Qatar.
So if we put all trend lines together, we can expect the coming Mideast war to align Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Hamas versus Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah, with less certainty about Qatar, PA/Fatah and Egypt. We'll have to watch and see how these trend lines evolve, and what will happen when these countries are forced to choose sides. Al Monitor and Israel National News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Oct-13 World View -- Europe's Roma Gypsies fear racism after Maria mystery solved thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Documents reveal Pakistan's collaboration on drone strikes
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Turkey has still not normalized its diplomatic relations with Israel, since they were broken off after the deaths of nine Turkish citizens on May 31, 2010, in a confrontation between Israel's navy and the boat Mavi Marmara in a flotilla headed for Gaza in violation of Israel's Gaza blockade. Now a Jewish leader in Turkey is urging Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to normalize relationships with Israel for its own benefit. Many people have accused Turkey of perpetrating a genocide in 1915, when 1.5 million Armenians were killed by Turkish forces. Turkey has bitterly denied that it was a genocide, and in the past that conclusion has been supported by the Israeli government. However, now the 100th anniversary is approaching in 2015, and Zali De Toledo, head of the Association of Turkish Jews in Israel, is pointing out that Erdogan's policies are causing Israel to reconsider its opposition to the genocide designation. Although for many years Israel has held back from commenting on the matter for fear of angering Turkey, last year the Israeli parliament had a debate over whether to recognize the mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks during World War I as genocide. Zaman (Istanbul)
The United States and Nato are expressing concern over Turkey's announcement that it will purchase an FD-2000 missile defense system from China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp, or CPMIEC, instead of rival systems from Russian, U.S. and European firms. CPMIEC is under U.S. sanctions for violations of the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act. Furthermore, Turkey is a member of Nato, and the new missile system will be incompatible with other Nato missile systems, making it difficult or impossible for Turkey to participate in Nato operations.
For years, Generational Dynamics has predicted that, in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni nations would be allied against the U.S., India, Pakistan, and Russia. In recent weeks, we've seen several changes along that trend line: Saudi Arabia and Turkey are distancing themselves from the U.S. and the West, while Iran is showing signs of wanting to reduce tensions with the West. Hurriyet (Ankara) and The National (UAE)
Pakistan's politicians have for years been demanding an end to American drone strikes targeting Taliban militias in Pakistan's tribal areas, because the strikes are so unpopular with the Pakistan people. It's been a poorly kept secret that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency has tacitly approved the drone strikes. Now, previously secret documents confirm this and a lot more. The documents describe dozens of drone strikes that were agreed on in detail by the ISI and the CIA. The documents also confirm another suspicion, that the ISI has funded Taliban-linked terrorist groups that have attacked American forces in Afghanistan. Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Oct-13 World View -- Turkey considers Chinese missile defenses, violating Nato agreements thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Obama administration announces new Obamacare software
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Israeli warplanes on Monday attacked a shipment of advanced long-range missiles that Syria was transferring to Hezbollah. The attack was reported by a Kuwaiti newspaper and confirmed by an official source in Jerusalem. This was the fifth known Israeli attack this year on Syrian weapons bound for Hezbollah. Israel National News
The growing sectarian conflict in the Mideast took a slightly different turn last week at the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, which was attended by some two million Muslims from countries around the world. A group of Shia Muslims from Detroit are accusing a group of Lebanese-Australian Sunni Muslims of assault in a campground near Mecca last week. They were all spending the night in a tent reserved for pilgrims from the U.S., Australia and European countries. One man was strangled until his face turned blue, and a woman was threatened with rape, according to witnesses. The group claimed that Saudi police ignored the complaints, while Saudi politicians are refusing to answer questions. Detroit Free Press and Sydney Morning Herald
 |
The administration is responding quickly to the problems that people are having with the Obamacare web site, HealthCare.gov. President Barack Obama unveiled the new, improved Obamacare software. The package contains 35 floppy disks containing everything you need to sign up for Obamacare. Obama said that the government hopes to have a six CD-ROM version of the program available by 2016. The Onion (satire)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Oct-13 World View -- Israeli warplanes bomb Syrian missiles thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Prime Minister of Pakistan asks for U.S. help with India
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Here are some interesting political stories from Iran:
"Several MPs criticized President Hassan Rouhani’s recent statements in which he said that the country’s treasury is empty. MP Abdolvahid Fiazi said, "Mr. Rouhani’s statements are contrary to the statements of the Economy Minister. We ask the administration to convey the reality of the matter to the people."
This is interesting because there's a political conflict brewing in Iran over the economy. Western economic sanctions have badly hurt Iran's economy, and the new president Hassan Rouhani has as much as admitted it in recent statements. But his political opponents are displeased with the admission, and would rather pretend that there are no economic problems.
"Justice Minister Hojjat al-Eslam Mostafa Pour Mohammadi stated, "[The slogan of] 'Death to America' is not one of the necessities of our country, but our country is an anti-Arrogant [anti-Western] country. If there is a need, we will negotiate, and if it is necessary to agree with the enemy we will even do so. This is because it is no problem for us to agree with the enemy for our interests, but we must know that he is the enemy."
The phrase "Death to America" has become a compulsory patriotic phrase in Iran, ever since the Great Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the Iranian hostage crisis in 1980. If you're not willing to chant "Death to America!" on any occasion, then you're not a true revolutionary Iranian. But as the younger generations have grown up, many of them like America, and think that "Death to America!" is irrelevant. This has become an issue between the generations in today's Iran, which is in a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s).
"Earlier this week, Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini's granddaughter, Zahra Eshraghi, told Sharq Parsi website that she sought to be a "taboo breaker" in the matter of hijab because she "always opposed the way ladies whom are active in the government dressed and [does] not agree with it at all." She added, "If they want to introduce Islam, they can do this with better clothing and hijab." Representative of the Supreme Leader to Greater Tehran IRGC Hojjat al-Eslam Abdolali Govahi subsequently criticized her, and said, "You are damned wrong. Who are you to do such a thing? If we do not say anything it is due to the dignity of Imam [Khomeini] and the Imam’s family."
I posted several funny stories during the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad era about Iran's police rounding up women wearing loose hijabs (headscarves) or no hijabs and carting them off to jail, where they are lectured on proper dress for a young Iranian woman. Now here you have the granddaughter of Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, who was the original Supreme Leader in the 1979 revolution, criticizing the arbitrary hijab requirement, and receiving harsh criticism from the older generation of survivors of the Great Revolution. This is exactly the kind of thing that happened during America's Awakening era in the 1960s, when girls were wearing miniskirts and hot pants, and were burning their bras, to harsh criticism from their parents and the WW II survivor generation. Khomeini must be spinning in his grave. AEI Iran Tracker
Ever since Saudi Arabia's surprise rejection, last Friday, of a prized seat on the United Nations Security Council, Saudi officials have been lambasting the United Nations for its hypocricy, and President Barack Obama in particular for adopting policies inimical to Saudi Arabia. The split really began when the Obama administration threw Egypt's leader Hosni Mubarak under the bus when the Arab Revolution began in 2011. Most recently the Saudis are furious at Obama's flip-flop and subsequent decision not to strike the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, and then the administration's apparent growing closeness to Saudi enemy Iran. In addition, the Obama administration failed to support the Saudis during the Bahrain uprising.
Saudi Prince Bandar Bin Sultan al-Saud, 64, was Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States from 1983 to 2005. He lost influence after that because of loss of confidence from King Abdullah, according to reports. But now Bandar is back in the spotlight, leading the change in policy to move away from the United States, according to reports that quote him as saying that the rejection of the UNSC seat "was a message for the U.S., not the U.N." According to one Saudi analyst, "The shift away from the U.S. is a major one."
However, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday that he had met with Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal on Monday, and that: "I have great confidence that the United States and Saudi Arabia will continue to be the close and important friends and allies that we have been."
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China will be allied against Iran, India and the United States. Reuters
Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in a visit to Washington on Tuesday, is asking the United States to mediate in the dispute with India over the disputed territories of Kashmir and Jammu:
"With its growing influence in India, the US now has the capacity to do more to help the two sides resolve their core disputes, including Kashmir, and in promoting a culture of cooperation."
Kashmir and Jammu was the epicenter of the one of the worst wars of the 20th century, the genocidal clash between Muslims and Hindus that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India. NDTV (India)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia continues its break with the United States thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
UK throws out 30% of all the food it grows
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Officials are bragging that they've arrested or killed over 5,000 "criminals" (killers, extortionists and kidnappers) in Karachi, Pakistan, in a massive operation that was launched last month on September 7. In addition, the police recovered 1,209 arms and 52 bombs.
The police operation was launched because of an explosion of violence in the last few years. Last year there were 2,124 people killed on the streets. This year there were 2,058 murders just till the end of September, but "only" 155 of those were in September, indicating that the police crackdown is having some effect.
Karachi is the economic center of Pakistan, and contains highly volatile mix of different ethnic and religious groups, many of whom openly hate each other, and others of whom just hate everyone.
There are the Mohajirs, who are Urduspeaking migrants from northern India who came to Pakistan following Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, leading to a horrific war between Hindus and Muslims. There are the Pashtuns, a major ethnic group mainly in northwest Pakistan, but which in recent years has been moving south into Karachi in order to escape the Taliban violence. To pursue their territorial, economic and political interests, both the Awami National Party (ANP), which represents the Pashtuns, and the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), which represents Mohajirs, are increasingly turning to violence through proxy forces. If that isn't bad enough, Karachi is increasingly the home of terrorists from Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP, the Pakistan Taliban). Dawn (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) and The Diplomat
The facts and figures about the Obamacare web site just keep pouring out in gruesome detail. It's like watching a traffic accident. You have to slow down, and you can't take your eyes off of it, despite the horror of it.
According to one analyst I heard on tv on Monday, Healthcare.gov cost $300 million to develop, much higher than the $93.7 million that we heard last week. According to that analyst, that means 1.5 million man-hours at $200 per hour. Can I get one of those jobs?
The NY Times is quoting one analyst as follows:
"One specialist said that as many as five million lines of software code may need to be rewritten before the Web site runs properly."
Given that 1.5 million man-hours have already been spent on this project, the figure of 5 million lines of code needing rewriting is quite plausible.
As I've said several times in the last few days, I've had a lot of personal experience with IT disasters, and this is easily the worst I've seen. ( "15-Oct-13 World View -- Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017") The prediction by Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini may be optimistic, in the sense that this web site may never work. Slate
 |
According to a survey conducted by the UK supermarket chain Tesco, every family in the UK wastes an estimated $1,200 per year, throwing away food. Tesco found that 68% of salad sold in bags is thrown out, 50% of bakery items, 40% of apples, 25% of grapes, and 20% of bananas.
I've seen stories like this before. The Tesco study only covers food that reached Tesco's shelves, but I saw a story last year that claimed that if you add in the amount of food that's thrown out by farmers and distributors, then 30-40% of all food grown in the UK is thrown out. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says that one-third of all food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted - around 1.3 billion tons per year.
My reaction to this story is: What the hell is going on? Can't some of this food be shipped to starving people in Africa and Asia? Or starving people in Europe, for that matter.
Every now and then I do a story on how food prices have been rising fairly steadily since the 1990s. (See, for example "21-Nov-10 News -- Food prices skyrocket to 2008 crisis levels" from 2010.) My conclusion is that rising food prices is destabilizing populations, especially in megacities, where children have to search through garbage dumps to find food for their families to eat.
And the obvious question is this: Why are people starving when one-third of all food produced for human consumption is wasted? Why doesn't some smart entrepreneur start a business shipping wasted food from UK to Africa?
The answer, unfortunately, is that food is cheap only when you can grow it yourself, or it's grown nearby. Food is horrendously expensive when it has to be shipped somewhere. Grown food is very heavy, since a lot of it is mostly water, so shipping costs are high. And most grown food has to be refrigerated if it's not going to be eaten right away, which makes shipping costs astronomical. And if an apple is shipped for a long time, it's not going to look very good, so the entrepreneur won't make any money charging higher prices.
So, unfortunately, food prices are going to continue to go up, and the starvation problem is only going to grow worse, especially in megacities, where food has to be shipped in from long distances. BBC and United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Oct-13 World View -- Police crackdown tries to control exploding violence in Karachi, Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
U.S. and the world approach the point of 'peak debt'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the global financial crisis is far from over, and a global panic and stock market crash could happen at any time. As I've said, this is inevitable because of the exponential growth of public debt. The above graph is interesting, because it shows the ratio of private and public debt as a % of GDP going back as far as 1870. I've written in the past about how this has been growing exponentially since 1950, but this graph shows the secular nature of the growth a lot more clearly than I've been able to do in the past.
The U.S. ratio is currently at about 350%, but there are other economies that are far worse off: the Eurozone is at 450%, the U.K. is at 550%, and Japan's debt is close to 700% of GDP.
These figures show how precarious the world economy is, and how any factor that creates some kind of disequilibrium could result in a global financial crisis. Just to take one of many possible examples, interest rates might rise from their current artificially low near-zero percent levels. This could affect hedge funds that are holding hundreds of trillions of dollars in interest rate swaps, who would suddenly have to sell to cover their own debts, resulting in a worldwide chain reaction and spiral downward. Other possibilities include a war or a start of Federal Reserve tapering.
It's worthwhile pointing out that there's nothing that the U.S. government can do to cause this or to prevent this. Continue the sequester or end the sequester, reduce food stamp payments or increase them, and so forth -- it doesn't even matter. "Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die." [Ecclesiastes 8:15, Isaiah 22:13]
The world economy is so fragile and out of kilter that this massive deleveraging is baked into the cake, and the financial crisis will begin when the right event triggers. It doesn't matter too much what anyone does in the meantime. Future Tense blog
After Saudi Arabia's surprise announcement that it would reject a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, a group of Arab nations at the United Nations called an emergency meeting and appealed to Saudi Arabia to reverse its decision. According to the Arab Group's statement:
"We hope that they (Saudi Arabia), which are amongst the blessed who represent the Arab and Islamic world at this important and historical stage, specifically for the Middle East region ... maintain their membership in the Security Council.[they should] continue their brave role in defending our issues specifically at the rostrum of the Security Council."
Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia's rejection was due to its anger at United States policy. King Abdullah was furious at the Obama administration for throwing Egypt's leader Hosni Mubarak under the bus when the Arab Revolution began in 2011. Recently, the Saudis are disillusioned by the unwillingness of the U.S. and the U.N. to do anything about the genocidal slaughter, by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, even after crossing clearly stated "red lines" by using chemical weapons, after president Obama's flip-flop.
The latest concern is that president Obama appears to be close to another flip-flop, by reaching some kind of détente with Iran that would lift sanctions and permit Iran to continue developing nuclear weapons.
The Saudis believe that they have played by all the rules, not pursuing any nuclear development of their own, and following all of America's wishes for decades. Since president Obama has taken office, America has turned its back on Saudi Arabia in one policy after another. The rejection of the U.N. seat is a signal that the Saudis don't intend to play by the rules any more.
Saudi Arabia is not scheduled to take the seat until January 1, and so there's still time for its leaders to change their minds. The National (UAE) and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia under pressure to reverse its U.N. Security Council decision thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
50,000 Syrian Christians ask for Russian citizenship
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
An enclave of 50,000 Christians in Syria have sent a letter to Russia's Foreign Ministry seeking dual citizenship:
"Since Syrian law allows dual citizenship, we have decided to seek citizenship of the Russian Federation if this is possible. Russian citizenship would be an honor for any Syrian Christian who wished to acquire it. ...It is for the first time since the Nativity of Christ that we Christians of Qalamoun living in the villages of Saidnaya, Maara Saidnaya, Maaloula and Maaroun are under threat of banishment from our land. We prefer death to exile and life in refugee camps, and so we will defend our land, honor and faith, and will not leave the land on which Christ walked."
The Christians are allied with the Bashar al-Assad regime, and are fearful of terrorist attack by the al-Qaeda linked jihadists that have been coming to Syria, which they blame on the West.
Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the issue was up to Russia's leadership to decide, since Russian citizenship is granted by presidential decree. Interfax Religion (Moscow) and Ria Novosti (Moscow)
Although hostile confrontations between China and nations bordering the South China Sea have been out of the news for a while, tensions have remained high. However, China still claims all the islands and resources of the entire South China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to other countries, including Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. China blames the United States for stirring up trouble by, among other things, encouraging the Philippines to submit its dispute with China to the international tribunal of the United Nations’ law of the sea, which China refuses to recognize. According to a recent editorial in China's government organ:
"But the US has not succeeded in convincing Asia-Pacific nations that these international laws are crucial to their foreign policy. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia have all tacitly or explicitly admitted Beijing's sovereignty over the islands and islets within the South China Sea's nine-dash line. However, these three countries have all seized some islands and islets on the Chinese side of the nine-dash line. The US has failed to fairly judge the disputes - in fact, once again, it encourages these nations to contest Chinese claims."
This is a really bizarre description of the situation, but it's probably one the many Chinese officials believe. Furthermore, China's leadership has become increasingly assertive in the last few weeks as China's president Xi Jinping made a strong presence at the ASEAN meeting of southeast Asian nations, while President Obama was a complete no-show because of the government shutdown.
The Philippines has, in particular, decided that it can't entirely depend on the U.S. for protection in the South China Sea, despite the mutual defense treaty that the two signed decades ago. As we recently reported ( "17-Aug-13 World View -- U.S. and Philippines make military plans to counter China"), Philippine and U.S. officials have agreed that the U.S. will deploy aircraft, ships, troops and equipment in civilian and military facilities in the Philippines, while the Philippines beefs up its own military capabilities. Last week, Philippine officials announced that they're building a new naval base in the South China Sea on Oyster Bay, just 100 miles from the Spratly Islands, which are bitterly contested between the Philippines, Vietnam and China. China Daily (Beijing) and The Diplomat
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Oct-13 World View -- Philippines building a new naval base in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Obamacare insurance companies trapped in a vicious financial Catch-22
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The mutual personal hatred of Turkey's hardline president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israel's hardline Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pretty apparent the last few years as Israeli-Turkish relations have become poisonous, especially after the the deaths of nine Turkish citizens on May 31, 2010, in a confrontation between Israel's navy and the boat Mavi Marmara in a flotilla headed for Gaza in violation of Israel's Gaza blockade. Israel finally apologized several months ago (see "15-Apr-13 World View -- Turkey warns Israel against 'dirty bargaining' over flotilla compensation"), but it did little to help the relationship between the two countries.
Now, a new accusation is threatening to worsen relations even further. According to a report by David Ignatius in the Washington Post, at the height of the mutual bitterness over the Mavi Marmara incident, Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT), transmitted to Iranian intelligence the identities of up to ten Iranians who had been working with Israel's Mossad intelligence agency. Israel believes that the disclosure by Erdogan's government was deliberate, and that President Obama supported Erdogan.
However, Turkey is vehemently denying the charges, and is countercharging that the Israelis are manufacturing accusations as a form of "psychological warfare against the government and its intelligence service." According to one of Erdogan's advisers, "Ignatius' article is so incoherent. The intelligence world operates according to agreements." Washington Post and Hurriyet (Istanbul)
After spending months lobbying to get one of the nine non-permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council, and after finally achieving their goal when they were awarded at seat on Thursday, Saudi Arabia shocked the U.N. diplomats by rejecting the seat because of the U.N.'s hypocrisy. The Saudis are giving the following reasons for the dramatic rejection:
It's very hard to disagree with the criticisms, especially after the recent debacle over Syria, where al-Assad has been committing massive genocide of innocent civilians through heavy weapons supplied by Russia and by chemical weapons. This is happening right before our eyes, but the U.S. is too confused and the United Nations is too pathetic to do anything about it.
Meanwhile, Sunni and Shia jihadists from around the world are converging in the Mideast, particularly in Iraq and Syria, in preparation for sectarian war which can be blamed on the Russia and the U.S. and, most of all, the United Nations. Saudi Gazette and CS Monitor
A survey by the Wall St. Journal finds that the insurance companies that have received insurance plan signups from the Obamacare web sites are finding that the information they're receiving is wrong. Some spouses are shown as children, some people are shown as signing up for multiple plans, in other cases data is missing. "Luckily," there have only a few signups for many insurance companies, so they're calling the customers on the phone to verify the information that the Obamacare web site has provided.
This is giving rise to a kind of "Catch-22." In order to control prices, the Obamacare law specifies that insurance companies are only allowed to charge 20% of the premiums they receive to administrative purposes. In order to make Obamacare work, millions of young, healthy people have to sign up. But if that ever happened, then the insurance companies would have enormous administrative costs verifying the signup data, putting them into a huge financial squeeze.
Obviously, millions of young, healthy people are not signing up for Obamacare, and it's very unlikely that they will. The only people who are willing to put up with the "glitches" on the web site are those who desperately need insurance -- that is, the old and sick people. This would destroy the entire financial model of Obamacare. (See "15-Oct-13 World View -- Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017")
Long-time readers are aware that from the day it was first proposed in 2009, I've referred to President Barack Obama's health care plan as a proposal of economic insanity, because it's a repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price controls, which were an utter, total disaster for the economy.
Some people have written to me to complain that the comparison to Nixon's wage-price controls is not valid because there are no price controls in Obamacare.
I'm no expert on the details of Obamacare, but from the day it was proposed in 2009, I heard story after story about all the different ways that prices were going to be controlled. Insurance companies are limited in profits, hospitals and doctors were restricted in charges, and so forth. Some of the loudest complainers are labor unions who are being taxed because they offer "Cadillac" plans. Whether done by taxes or restricting prices, these are all price controls, as in the case of Nixon's wage-price controls.
For those of you who are "liberal" and "progressive," you're the ones who owe the world an explanation, not me.
If you're "liberal" or "progressive," then you have to believe that Nixon's wage-price controls should have worked. They were enthusiastically backed by labor unions and other liberals, they were fully backed by the Nixon administration, and almost everyone thought they'd work to reduce inflation from 2-3% down to 1% or so.
Instead, they were a disaster, and inflation rocketed to 10%. ( "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse")
If you're liberal or progressive, then you owe me and other people an explanation why that happened. This is a simple non-ideological question.
Wage-price controls were a typical liberal program, attempting to control the markets through government regulation, and it was a disaster. Give me and others an explanation of why this typical liberal program was a disaster.
When you go past your ideology and understand that you have no explanation why Nixon's wage-price controls were a catastrophe, then you'll also understand why Obamacare is a catastrophe.
In simple economic terms:
That's exactly what happened in the Nixon era, and it's exactly what's happening today.
Once again, forget your ideology for a moment, and go back and check out what happened under Nixon's wage-price controls, and you'll see the same thing happening today.
One bit of irony: Labor unions were the loudest advocates of wage-price controls, and they were the loudest complainers when the controls failed. Today, labor unions were the loudest advocates of Obamacare, and today they're the loudest complainers. Go figure. WSJ and USA Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia shocks U.N. by rejecting Security Council seat thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Egypt under international criticism for deporting Syrian refugees
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In a new paroxysm of violence in Iraq on Thursday, well over 60 people were killed by a series of car bombings that struck across Baghdad, along with additional suicide bombings in northern Iraq. The bombs targeted Shia neighborhoods, and it's assumed that the perpetrators were al-Qaeda linked terrorists from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant/Sham/Syria (ISIS). President George Bush's military "surge" in 2007 was successful in ejecting al-Qaeda from Iraq, but since the American withdrawal in December 2011, all that work has been coming undone. With Syria's civil war continuing, the fault line between Sunni and Shia Muslims is increasingly inflamed throughout the Mideast, and is drawing both Sunni and Shia jihadists into the region. AFP and Reuters
With millions of innocent Syrian civilians fleeing their homes to escape bombardment by heavy weapons supplied by Russia to the psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad of Syria, the resources of many neighboring countries are being overwhelmed. Some 300,000 of the refugees have fled to Egypt, which is under international criticism for arresting them and deporting them back to Syria. However, Egyptian authorities say that the vast majority of the Syrian refugees living in Egypt are treated well, and only a small number are deported -- those that commit crimes, and those that participate in protests supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Al Ahram (Cairo)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Oct-13 World View -- Multiple bombings across Iraq kill more than 60, mostly Shias thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
'Year of Dutch-Russian Cooperation' fails as relations spiral downward
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Saudi Arabian officials and officials at the World Health Organization (WHO) are breathing a sigh of relief, with the three-day Hajj celebration ending on Thursday with no reported cases of the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). In the last 18 months, there have been 119 people in the Kingdom infected with MERS, with 51 deaths, including two last week. Each year, the Hajj brings millions of Muslims from 188 countries around the world to Saudi Arabia for their once in a lifetime pilgrimage, and it was feared so many people in close proximity to one another might cause a worldwide pandemic, as pilgrims carried the disease back to their home countries.
Because of this fear, the Saudis went to extraordinary lengths to do everything possible to prevent spread of the deadly virus. Hajj visas were cut back for the young and elderly, for pregnant women and children under 12. Country quotas were sharply reduced As a result, 1.98 million pilgrims performed Hajj this year against 3.2 million last year.
Concerns have not yet ended, however. It's possible to contract the MERS virus and not show symptoms for several days, and so it's still possible for the virus to spread. Saudi Gazette and Reuters
The 2013 was supposed to be the year when the Netherlands and Russia celebrated their centuries-long rich history, and encouraged mutual investments and tourism. But a series of undiplomatic incidents are causing relations between the two countries to spiral to a low level.
The latest incident occurred late on Tuesday, when two Russians attacked Dutch diplomat Onno Elderenbosch in his own apartment in Moscow, beating him, tying him up, destroyed his apartment, and wrote homophobic symbols on the mirror with pink lipstick. The Netherlands was the first country in the world to legalize same-sex marriages and has also been at odds with Russia over gay rights.
This attack was apparently in revenge for an attack last week by Dutch police on Russian diplomat Dmitry Brodin, when they entered his apartment in The Hague, knocked him down, hit him, and dragged him to the police station.
This all happens in the context of Russia's detention of 30 Greenpeace activists and charging them with piracy, and seizure of their Dutch-registered boat the Arctic Sunrise, after Greenpeace attacked a Gazprom offshore oil platform in the Arctic Ocean. The Netherlands has instigated legal action against Russia at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea for the release of boat and crew. Dutch Consulate and CS Monitor and Ria Novosti (Moscow)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi's Hajj ends successfully with no reports of MERS virus thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Starving Syrians are told to eat dogs, cats and donkeys
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A group of clerics in Syria have issued a fatwa giving starving men, women and children permission to eat cats, dogs and donkeys, if they have nothing else to eat. The fatwa is directed to suburbs of Damascus where Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad is conducting a siege, refusing to allow aid convoys to enter. At the same time, the cleric pleaded for humanitarian help:
"How does the world sleep with full stomachs while there are hungry people, and not far from the main city [Damascus], just few meters way.Haven’t you heard the fatwas (religious edicts) that have filled our streets and mosques by permitting people to eat cats, dogs and other animals that have already been killed by the bomb attacks?
Are you waiting for us to eat the flesh of our martyrs and our dead after fearing our lives? ... You have forgot that you have brothers and sisters in southern Damascus who are hungry."
The last paragraph refers to cannibalism.
The fatwa is also being issued to Palestinians in refugee camps near Damascus. Al-Arabiya and BBC
Sicily's governor Rosario Crocetta declared a state of emergency on Tuesday, because of difficulty coping with daily arrivals of migrants from Africa and Syria. Sicily is the largest island in the Mediterranean, and like Lampedusa is part of Italy. Along with Lampedusa and Malta, Sicily is a common entry point of migrants. Calls for action have grown after two tragic shipwrecks last week in which more than 400 Eritrean, Somali and Syrian refugees drowned. Some 32,000 asylum seekers have landed in Italy and Malta so far this year, and the rate continues to grow. Italy has requested EU help in dealing with the flood of migrants. BBC and AFP
Stories continue to indicate that the Obamacare signup web sites are an IT catastrophe of historic proportions, and that they have no chance of working for years. ( "15-Oct-13 World View -- Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017") Apparently media outlets have been trying to find anyone who has successfully signed up, and have failed to do so.
The Obamacare web site source code is, of course, not visible to the public, as it sits on web servers. However, there's a portion of the code that's available to anyone. This is the javascript code that the web servers send to your local browser. According to one experienced programmer:
"What I am seeing in this code is nothing short of jaw-dropping. As people are now saying, this code is "CRAAAAAZY!" You almost can't even call it Javascript code. If you sat down 100 monkeys in front of 100 typewriters and told them to start banging away, I'm confident at least one of them would come up with something far better than the Healthcare.gov Javascript code."
The javascript code is full of significant design errors that impact both its functionality and performance. NaturalNews.com
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Assad says loss of chemical weapons a blow to Syria's morale
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
As I wrote yesterday ( "14-Oct-13 World View -- HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster"), the Obamacare IT systems are a continuing technical disaster, much worse than the "glitches" that the administration are describing. It now turns out that the technical issues are much more serious than even I realized.
Mark Bertolini, the CEO of insurance company Aetna Inc., has been personally involved in the implementation of Obamacare from the beginning, from both a policy and an IT perspective, and he's always been a supporter of Obamacare, albeit perhaps a reluctant one.
Bertolini was interviewed on CNBC on Monday, and his technical assessment of the Obamacare web sites is that they're so bad they won't be fully working until 2017.
Since yesterday, several people have written to me to complain that I was being too negative about the Obamacare web sites, and I didn't really know, since I wasn't involved in their development. But that's not true of Bertolini, who knows as much as anyone in the country about what's going on.
I transcribed the interview. Questions from the interviewers are enclosed in [brackets]. Bertolini was first asked if he knew from the beginning how bad it would be:
"We were one of the alpha testers. We got pretty nervous as we got further along. We helped them build blueprints, on how to put the system together, and as they started missing deadlines, we were pretty convinced that it was going to be a difficult launch.[Did you tell them - don't do this - move the date?]
We started to help them prioritize how to move ahead with the project. They have their perspective on when they wanted to start, so we did our very best to help them get started on time. ...
[How long will it take to actually get them fixed to work, get out all the kinks?]
That is a big question. When you implement a project of this size, the first thing you do is unit testing, then you do application testing, then you do integration testing, and then you do scalability testing. And that plan is usually a lot longer than some of the application development itself. That's happening on the fly.
[It wasn't done beforehand?]
All of it's been on the fly. We didn't get code drops until a month before the system went live from a user testing standpoint."
This is already devastating. Yesterday I was criticizing the contractors who implemented the web sites as incompetent, and this proves it. For a full-scale rollout of such a large system on October 1, any competent IT manager would have provided testable code several months earlier. As Bertolini says below, this should be career ending for the people involved.
"So if you think about ... you don't know what scalability issues you have until you have all the functionality working, and everybody starts hitting the system, so you've actually gotta get the functionality up, and the integrated testing working, cause you don't know how many files you're going to hit, how many people are going to hit them, until you get it working together. And then scalability is the last thing you size.[What happens January 1 - if people are having troubles now - if it's that bad of a situation, is everyone going to be able to sign up by January 1?]
No, and that's why enrollment is gonna still be open until March 31. But I think the bigger issue is whether enough people will be able to sign up to make it work.
[You need buy-in by a lot of people -- need a lot of young people.]
I think the attention span of the younger generation in using technology - if it doesn't work the first time, it's going to be pretty tough to get them back the second time. And so as a result, with the web site technology, we are actually testing it with the types of users who we want to use it.
[So there's not much time to get it right.]
It's the law of the land, number one. Number two, public exchanges are gonna be here to stay, so we need to make them work somehow. And I think the question is how we get there from here.
[The six months between now and March 31 - that's not a long time - to do all of the testing and prototyping and evaluation and scalability of the system this large. Is that enough time, in your judgment?]
I don't know. We're in a place now where there's so much wrong, you just don't know what's broken until you get a lot more of it fixed. And we have to plow through it. I've been here one or two times in my career, it's nothing you ever want to repeat, cause it's very difficult. It's a career ending event in a lot of cases.
[Taking the politics out of it -- Are you worried that if it's delayed a year - once you get people into an entitlement, you never get them out, so you wanted to get started, right?]
If the program blows up because people don't sign up, then the program's not going to move ahead either for all that while.
So this is gonna be a three year thing.
[Should they delay it by a year?]
I would have [delayed it], if I'd been in their seat. So the politics got in the way of a good business decision.
So this is gonna be 2017-2016-2017 before it grows. I think the bigger issue for folks to think about is that private exchanges have now kicked off, as a result of the private sector innovating against the law. And as these private exchanges move ahead, and they're very good experiences in a lot of cases, we'll be launching a number of them, we'll be in 15 this year alone, what will happen is that you'll start to attract people to a different kind of marketplace. What will do in juxtaposition to the public exchanges over time, and how will that work?"
The important points in Bertolini's interview are these: Almost no testing has been done; he would have delayed implementation for a year; it's going to take three years to get it working.
I've been a Senior Software Engineer for decades, and I've been a technology journalist for almost as long, so I'm very well aware of what's going on here. I've been a personal participant in several IT disasters, and I've been an outsider reporting on several IT disasters, and I can tell you that this smells to high heaven like an IT disaster.
There are two kinds of IT projects. One kind is like digging a ditch. You know that if you keep digging, you'll eventually get the ditch dug. It may take longer than expected, but sooner or later it will always end successfully, because there's no real risk.
The second kind of IT project is like building a bridge, and the risk is extremely high. You can keep building, but if one day the entire bridge collapses and falls into the river, then you have no choice but to either start over or just abandon the project. The Obamacare web sites are in this category.
This project should have cost $10-25 million, as I described yesterday, but it's already cost an astronomical $93.7 million. Now the Obama administration has to decide whether this "bridge," which is in the process of collapsing into the river, should be repaired, or whether the project should be started from scratch. It's quite possible that there's no choice but to start it from scratch. But either way, it's going to cost many more tens of millions of dollars to get working, if it ever works. And the Obama administration is so desperate to save Obamacare, they'll do anything, no matter how desperate the action.
There's one more thing worth noting: Bertolini talks about "private exchanges" that are springing up in competition with the federal exchanges. This is a very interesting development worth watching. CNBC
It's always nice to know that even genocidal maniacs can have a sense of humor, so it's worth a chuckle that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad said that he should have been a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. Actually, I've made the same suggestion in the past - that he deserves the prize by exterminating as many innocent people as possible, so there's no one left to fight a war.
However, it's possibly more interesting that al-Assad, who until recently denied that he had chemical weapons, is now saying that losing them would be a loss of morale for all of Syria:
"There is no doubt that the loss of chemical weapons has resulted in a loss of morale and a political loss for Syria. Since 2003, Syria has demanded that the countries in the region dismantle their WMDs, and the chemical weapons were meant to be a bargaining chip in Syria’s hands in exchange for Israel dismantling its nuclear arsenal.The chemical weapons, which have lost their deterrent value over the past few years, were meant to be used only after Israel used its nuclear weapons.
Today the price has changed and we have agreed to give up our chemical weapons to remove the threat of the US attacking us."
So why are they a loss of morale for Syria? Because: "Israel would distribute gas masks to its citizens when there was a rise in tension in the region." Jerusalem Post
Greece was first bailed out for 110 billion euros in 2010 but when that failed, it got a second rescue in 2012 worth 130 billion euros plus a private sector debt write-off totaling more than 100 billion euros. But it still isn't enough. Greece would like to issue bonds in 2014 for 4.4 billion euros, to pay for debts that will come due next year, but Greece's debt is already 175% of annual output, and so European officials are refusing to permit Greece to go even deeper into debt. So there's still a 4.4 billion euro funding gap in 2014, which will have to be made up somehow, and an ECB executive board member puts the figure at 6 billion euros. Instead, the ECB is demanding that Greece sell off more government assets, and privatize more government run businesses. At any rate, European officials will not make any decisions until December. Kathimerini and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Oct-13 World View -- Aetna CEO predicts Obamacare IT failures until 2017 thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Al-Qaeda surges back in Iraq following U.S. withdrawal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Moscow police arrested more than 380 people on Sunday during a race riot in which about 1,000 neo-Nazi ethnic Russian nationalists attacked a vegetable warehouse run by natives of Russia's southern provinces in the North Caucasus who had migrated to Moscow. This was the worst race riot in some time between mostly Orthodox Christian ethnic Russians and mostly Muslim North Caucasians. The riot was triggered by the knife murder, on Thursday, of an ethnic Russian while he was out walking with this girlfriend, who later described the assailant as a Caucasian. Hundreds of police were sent in to bring the riot under control, but some reports indicate that the police did nothing to stop the ethnic Russians from looting the warehouse. Moscow police promised to pay up to one million rubles for information that would help to identify and find the murder suspect. Russia Today and AFP
Al-Qaeda has come roaring back in Iraq since U.S. troops left in late 2011 and now looks stronger than it has in years. The terror group has shown it is capable of carrying out mass-casualty attacks several times a month, driving the death toll in Iraq to the highest level since 2006. Al-Qaeda's forces have been bolstered by bombing attacks on Iraqi prisons that have freed more than 500 inmates. The Syrian war has been a major recruiting tool for al-Qaeda because genocidal maniac president Bashar al-Assad is using heavy weapons to slaughter innocent civilians, and Russia is following a disastrous policy of supplying an unlimited number of heavy weapons to al-Assad. In Iraq, the pace of terrorist killings has increased substantially every month since the American withdrawal, with most of the attacks conducted by al-Qaeda linked terrorists with Shia targets. On Sunday alone, 42 people were killed in a new wave of bombings in most Shia-majority cities. One intelligence official estimates that al-Qaeda now has at least 3,000 trained fighters in Iraq alone, including some 100 volunteers awaiting orders to carry out suicide missions. President George Bush's "surge" into Iraq in 2007 beat back al-Qaeda, and reduced it to a "few small cells struggling to survive," according to the Brookings Institution. But now all of that work is coming undone. AP
Long-time readers are aware that from the day it was first proposed in 2009, I've referred to President Barack Obama's health care plan as a proposal of economic insanity, because it's a repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price controls, which were an utter, total disaster for the economy. (See "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse".)
I had expected Obamacare to collapse for purely economic reasons, just as Nixon's wage-price controls collapsed for economic reasons, despite the kind of overwhelming support from both Democrats and Republicans for wage-price controls that is totally absent for Obamacare. Obamacare is in fact collapsing for purely economic reasons. The administration has been forced to grant one waiver after another to labor unions, Congress, and other political allies, it's used the IRS to target its political opponents, and it was forced to postpone the "employer mandate" by a year, and probably forever. This is exactly the kind of thing that Nixon tried to do to save his wage-price controls, as they spiraled into total disaster and collapse. The only significant portion of Obamacare still remaining is the "individual mandate," which is so full of holes and contradictions that it's unlikely to survive the winter.
But what I hadn't foreseen is that a critical factor in the collapse of Obamacare may well be the IT systems. President Obama is calling them "glitches" that will be repaired soon, but many people are wondering whether they can be repaired. I've suggested that perhaps the Obamacare IT systems were developed by a group of kids out of college whose previous experience was to develop a web site as a homework assignment, and had used this "expertise" in developing healthcare.gov and other web sites.
An article by Sean Gallagher of Ars Technica confirms that suggestion, and a lot more. He points out that actual federal employees who do IT work have been retiring or are close to retirement, and haven't been replaced, and so the government has been depending on young programmers working for outside contractors to do the work. Furthermore, he points out that the federal government uses old, outdated hardware and operating systems, and that government-implemented systems, typified by the US Army's Enterprise Email (EE) program, are shoddy and would never be tolerated in the commercial world.
I hadn't foreseen all this, but I should have, based on several personal experiences. The most relevant one is when I was working for military contractor CACI in 2004-5, which was under contract to General Dynamics (not to be confused with Generational Dynamics) to build an internet infrastructure for Air Force bases around the world. I'd been working on this project for 18 months, and it was due for completion in four more months. I realized that there were problems, so I did a quick survey of the other engineers, and discovered that they all assumed that once the hardware was assembled, the software would automatically work. It was clear that of the 20-30 engineers on the project, I was the only one that understood large software systems, and that the project was headed for disaster. I prepared a list of problems, and wrote a memo to my management predicting that project was going to slip at least six months, and asked for permission to do a complete project evaluation in order to save it. I had been fired a couple of times previously on other projects for telling my management that a project was in trouble (even though I was always right), and so in this memo, I actually begged them not to fire me.
Well, that didn't help. I can still remember the Gen-X manager from General Dynamics glaring at me and loudly screaming at me in a meeting that "This project is going to be SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED IN FOUR MONTHS." Well, of course I was fired a week later, and of course the entire project collapsed a year later, a total loss of $10 million of taxpayer money. I'm still furious about what happened because (a) I was fired for being the only competent engineer, where none of the General Dynamics engineers were competent, (b) The incompetent engineers got to continue working, collecting a salary, and sitting around writing fatuous memos for another year, and (c) if I'd been permitted to evaluate the project and redirect it, I could have saved the project, and the taxpayers' $10 million. But that's the way the government works, especially since the rise of Generation-X.
So, based on that experience, it's pretty likely that healthcare.gov has been implemented by incompetent engineers led by bureaucratic morons who really don't care whether the web site ever works or not and don't want to listen to anyone who actually is competent, as long as they continue to collect their enormous salaries.
You might think that's bad enough, Dear Reader, but now the story is going to get MUCH WORSE.
Last week, there were some reports that the Obama administration had paid $634 million to contractors to implement healthcare.gov. I checked out the reports, and it turns out that the $634 million figure is wrong. The implementation cost was a "mere" $93.7 million.
Are you f--king kidding me????? $93.7 million to build a high volume web site backed up by a database? And they're BRAGGING about this as a low cost??? This kind of project in the commercial world would have cost about $5-10 million, but adjusting for government bureaucracy or additional technical complications, a figure of $20-25 million might have been reasonable though very expensive. $93.7 million is high by several multiples, especially in view of the shoddy results.
So now we can see what must have happened. The Obama administration poured out tens of millions of dollars to a number of incompetent contractors with bloated budgets, probably their political pals and campaign contributors, who employed incompetent young Millennial and Gen-X engineers and managers to implement healthcare.gov, and you can see the result, which is similar to the Air Force internet project that I worked on for General Dynamics before I was fired.
And now the Obama administration is so desperate to save Obamacare that it will do anything and everything, legal or illegal, credible or extortionary, constructive or destructive, to save it. It is now going to spend additional tens of millions of dollars to try to save healthcare.gov. Let's see what happens. Ars Technica and The Blaze
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Oct-13 World View -- HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Mediterranean turns into a 'cemetery' as another migrant boat capsizes
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Malta's prime minister Joseph Muscat said on Friday:
"As things stand we are just building a cemetery within our Mediterranean sea.We cannot allow the Mediterranean to become a cemetery."
He was reacting to the news of another ship, packed with hundreds of migrants, capsizing as it approached Malta. In this case, rescue vessels from Italy and Malta responded quickly and hundreds of migrants were pulled from the sea, along with 34 dead bodies. This follows a much larger incident last week, when hundreds of migrants died from the sinking of a migrant boat packed with 500 migrants from Northern Africa. (See "Lampedusa disaster forces Europe's immigrant dilemma into headlines".) In the most recent incident, many of the migrants were white, indicating that they were likely to be Syrians and Palestinians.
Activists are calling for measures to stop the flow of migrants. Over 30,000 migrants arrived in Italy and Malta so far this year, compared with 15,000 in all of 2012. According to one official, "Behind these tragedies, as the dramatic instability of African countries increases, there are human traffickers who are enriching themselves on the backs of people who are fleeing war and hunger." BBC and Mirror (London)
On Wednesday, the Obama administration announced a partial cutoff of military aid to Egypt, as required by U.S. law because of the army coup that ousted a democratically elected leader, Mohamed Morsi. $260 million in cash assistance to the government is being delayed, and delivery of Apache helicopters, F-16 fighter jets, M1A1 Abrams tank kits, which are put together in Egyptian factories, and Harpoon anti-ship missiles will be held up. The cutoff has received some criticism because the U.S. needs good relations with Egypt for its own strategic regions. The aid to Egypt's military gives the U.S. preferential access to the Suez Canal, and also gives the U.S. intelligence information about the entire Mideast region.
So it's not surprising that the aid cutoff is turning out to be more symbolic than substantial. The delay in cash assistance will be more than made up for by cash contributions from Egypt's Arab allies, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, which are jointly providing $12 billion in aid. Potentially more significant is the cutoff of delivery of the heavy weapons. Egypt cannot simply take Saudi Arabia's money and use it to purchase an F-16, since such sales are carefully controlled by the U.S. government. However, Egypt already has large inventories of all of these heavy weapons, and so a postponed delivery will not matter for a while. If the U.S. REALLY wanted to cut off aid, they would suspend maintenance and logistic support. But the Egyptians will still receive spare parts, maintenance and technical advisers, which is what they really need from the U.S. Daily News Egypt and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Oct-13 World View -- U.S.-Egypt relationship little affected by aid cutoff thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Saudi Arabia and Israel look for solutions
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
There's been a flurry of "diplomacy peace moves" recently: President Obama having a phone call with Iran's president Hassan Rouhani; Secretary of State John Kerry congratulating Russia on having a positive, cooperative approach to Syria; Kerry saying he's "very pleased" with Syria's positive, cooperative approach to the chemical weapons inspectors.
It's hard to know what to make of all this. Russia's president Vladimir Putin has repeatedly shown contempt for President Obama, and it was just a few weeks ago that Obama snubbed Putin at the G-20 meeting because Russia is harboring American traitor Edward Snowden. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been and continues to be a genocidal murderer using heavy weapons supplied by Russia to kill huge numbers of innocent Syrian civilians, and it was just a few weeks ago that President Obama was talking about "red lines" and threatening military action because of al-Assad's horrific use of chemical weapons on civilians on August 21. Kerry's "very pleased" remark came about in response to a piece of paper listing Syria's chemical weapons, and few people doubt that al-Assad will keep hidden a percentage of his chemical weapons from the U.N. inspectors.
So we have an endless series of Obama flip-flops, exuding obeisance to one foreign leader after another who has nothing but contempt for America and President Obama. Unfortunately, Obama has no clue what's going on in the world, has no clue what he's doing, and has no clue what he's going to do next. As usual, the fawning, sycophantic mainstream media have nothing but praise for Obama and Kerry, despite the constantly changing and flip-flopping foreign policy du jour. Jerusalem Post and Al-Hayat
One group of people who are definitely not fawning and sycophantic are the leaders of Saudi Arabia, who once considered America to be their ally. Saudi's leaders are already upset that Obama threw Egypt's leader Hosni Mubarak under the bus at the start of the Egyptian revolution. And now, Obama is siding with Iran and al-Assad, Shia Muslim leaders who are responsible for the massacre of many innocent Sunni Muslims, including many women and children, and for millions of refugees. Furthermore, Saudi leaders are upset that Obama is siding with Iran, in view of the latter's activities in funding Shia insurgencies in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. Finally, Saudi intelligence has obtained from al-Assad military sources a long list of chemical weapons and chemical weapons sites that are being withheld by al-Assad from the international inspectors, making the entire U.S.-Russian deal on inspections a farce.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given up any hope that President Obama will do anything to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Although Israel and America are still close allies, the personal animosity and distrust between Netanyahu and Obama are extremely high. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia are equally concerned about the consequences of Iran developing a nuclear weapon, and they are considering cooperation in facing a nuclear-capable Iran. Reuters and Debka
To put all the above in perspective, this is a good time to summarize the numerous generational analyses I've posted in the past:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Oct-13 World View -- Israel and Saudi Arabia furious over talk of U.S.-Russia-Iran deal on Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Red Cross warns of bubonic plague epidemic in Madagascar
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In a stunning action by a Libyan militia, Libya's Prime Minister Ali Zeidan was kidnapped early Thursday morning from his hotel in the heart of the capital city, Tripoli. Zeidan was freed unhurt several hours later, apparently because a competing Libya militia charged in to free him.
It's believed that Thurswday's kidnapping was staged by al-Qaeda militants in retaliation for alleged Libyan government collusion in last week's kidnapping by U.S. special forces, in broad daylight, of Abu Anas al-Libi, who was indicted years ago on charges of aiding in the bombing of the American embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998. ( "6-Oct-13 World View -- Two U.S. military strikes target Libya and Somalia jihadists")
However, there are other possible reasons for Thursday's kidnapping as well. Libya's government does not have an army or police force, and is really nothing more than a confederation of tribal militias who are responsible for keeping order, but who have their own individual agendas. One simmering issue is that Zeidan wants the central government to have control over Libya's oil fields, while some of the militias want control themselves. In any case, the kidnapping of Zeidan is considered a sign of how weak Libya's government is, following the Nato military action in 2011 that brought down Muammar Gaddafi. BBC and AP and CS Monitor
Bubonic plague, also called the Black Death when it killed half of Europe's population in the 1300s, has never been eliminated, and in fact is endemic in many places. It's endemic in the animal population of Madagascar, and the The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Geneva and the Pasteur Institute are warning of a possible epidemic, especially in the crowded, rat-infested prisons, as summer approaches in this Southern Hemisphere island-nation off the coast of Africa:
"If the plague gets into prisons there could be a sort of atomic explosion of plague within the town. The prison walls will never prevent the plague from getting out and invading the rest of the town."
Bubonic plague is carried by fleas and fleas are carried by rats. According to the ICRC, the prisons are infested with rats that are themselves infested with fleas, and the situation has gotten so bad that an "atomic explosion" may occur in the town, causing an epidemic of the Black Death. BBC
France's far-right National Front party is leading the two mainstream political parties in recent polls. (The term "far right" has different meanings in Europe and America.) A new poll finds that NP is leading with 24%, while the center-right UMP party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy has 22%, and the governing Socialist party of president François Hollande is at 19%. NP is headed by Marine Le Pen, who campaigns for curbing immigration and exiting the euro. Le Pen has styled herself as protecting France against both the "European Soviet Union" and against Muslim immigration. Europe has been generally moving to the right on the issues of immigration and deportation of Muslims. EU Observer
In case you're wondering why the "NIST Time Widget" on the Generational Dynamics home page no longer works -- it's because of the government shutdown. NIST
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Oct-13 World View -- Libya's prime minister is kidnapped in broad daylight, then freed thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Congressmen forced to reuse gym towels
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Russia is planning near total surveillance of all visitors to the Winter Olympics, to be held February 7-23, 2014, in Sochi, Russia, as well as athletes and journalists. The good news is that Russia will provide all visitors with free, fast internet services that will be a pleasure to use, provided that you don't mind that each and every digital communication passing through the city's telephone and internet services will be intercepted.
In addition, Russia is doing everything possible to make sure that there are no protests in Sochi, and that there isn't even any negative media coverage. Russia is barring journalists from visiting Sochi if they've written things in the past critical of Russia's government.
Russia's ban on public protests is mainly targeting one category of protesters -- the Circassians. Russia has admitted that when they were awarded the rights to the 2014 Winter Olympics in the beautiful Black Sea resort of Sochi, they underestimated a very important issue: the ethnic Circassians. As I first reported in "30-Oct-10 News -- Caucasus terrorism / politics becomes embroiled in 2014 Olympics", the region around Sochi used to be the home of ethnic Circassians. But they were slaughtered and driven out of Sochi by the Russians in a generational crisis war that climaxed in a massive genocidal battle in 1864. And that makes 2014 the 150th anniversary of that climactic battle. In the three years since I first reported on it, the Circassian situation has gone from an obscure little known problem to a major issue facing the 2014 Olympics.
Russia is taking offense at anyone who refers to the 1864 battle as a Circassian genocide, but that didn't stop Georgia's president Mikheil Saakashvili, who has very little love for Russia or for Russia's president Vladimir Putin, after the latter led a Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, annexing two of Georgia's provinces. Last month, Saakashvili gave a speech to the United Nations General Assembly. In that speech, he spoke of how Russia was oppressing nations that wanted to join the European Union. He said that "the Georgian nation has suffered an embargo, a war, an invasion, and an occupation – all since 2006." He went through a list of historical outrages, including the following:
"And this is why I have launched several projects during my Presidency reinforcing the people-to-people contacts between North and South Caucasus, projects focusing mostly on education and on University exchanges.That’s why the Georgian Parliament has recognized [in May, 2011] genocide of Circassian people – one of the most unknown and tragic pages of history of the world, when the whole nation was wiped out because their land was needed by the Russian Empire.
We need to build on those small efforts. We need to prepare for the times when the Empire collapses. So that its legacy of hatred is swiftly overcome."
The "Empire" whose collapse he's predicting is the Russian Empire. But more significant is his statement that Georgia's Parliament recognized the genocide of the Circassian people in 1864. The Russian delegation staged a walkout during Saakashvili's speech.
The Circassian situation is just one of many potential security problems that Russia faces in Sochi, at the edge of the volatile North Caucasus. So if you plan to visit the Sochi Olympics, don't be surprised to find that every possible form of hyper-security is being imposed. CS Monitor and Jamestown and Civil (Georgia)
Divers are still recovering bodies from the horrendous accident last Thursday in a boat carrying 500 migrants from North Africa to Lampedusa Island, as we reported recently. European Commission President José Manuel Barroso visited Lampedusa for a photo op on Wednesday, where he expected to be cheered by the local residents. Instead, dozens of people hurled abuse, with insults like "disgrace" and "killers." It seems that EU politicians have made frequent promises on the subject of illegal immigration to people not only in Italy, but also in Greece and Spain, and have never followed through on any of those promises. Deutsche-Welle
Congressmen who use the Capitol gym are faced with a major new hardship: Because of the government shutdown, they have to reuse their towels. Of course, other parks and buildings in Washington are shut down (except those needed by President Obama's political friends), but the Capitol gym is being kept open because Congressmen are very special and deserve such a privilege. It's true that having to reuse their towels is a hardship that these public servants should not be forced to bear, but at least they know that they're getting a special Obamacare subsidy, so that they won't have to pay the same astronomical Obamacare health insurance rates that everyone else is going to have to pay. The Hill
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Oct-13 World View -- Russia plans intensive surveillance of visitors to Sochi Olympics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
North Korea puts its military on high alert
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Afghanistan's president Hamid Karzai has indicated that Nato's 12-year-old war was a failure. In an interview, Karzai said:
"On the security front the entire Nato exercise was one that caused Afghanistan a lot of suffering, a lot of loss of life, and no gains because the country is not secure.They [the Taliban] are Afghans. Where the Afghan president, the Afghan government can appoint the Taliban to a government job they are welcome. But where it's the Afghan people appointing people through elections to state organs then the Taliban should come and participate in elections.
The return of the Taliban will not undermine progress. This country needs to have peace. I am willing to stand for anything that will bring peace to Afghanistan and through that to promote the cause of the Afghan women better."
So, the implication is that the 12-year effort to eject the Taliban after 9/11/2001 was a waste. This isn't a surprising conclusion. As I've been writing for years, when President Obama announced a "surge" into Afghanistan, hoping to duplicate the success of the president George Bush's "surge" into Iraq, there was no chance that the Afghanistan "surge" would succeed, based on generational reasons, and on the relationship of the Afghan Pashtun to the Pakistan Pashtun. (See "29-Sep-13 World View -- Violence in Afghanistan surges in September") And it was just two months ago that Secretary of State John Kerry announced, with great pomp and fanfare, an agreement with the Taliban to hold peace talks, but the talks collapsed in one day after they were announced.
Karzai and Obama have never gotten along very well anyway, and in 2009 Obama described Karzai as an unreliable and ineffective partner. Still, Karzai's remarks come at a crucial time in negotiations over how many troops the U.S. will leave behind for training and such, after the Nato withdrawal in 2014. Karzai's outburst appears to make the "zero option" more likely -- that zero troops will be left behind. BBC and VOA
Reports indicate that the U.S. will announce on Wednesday a decision to cut off military aid to Egypt. Egypt currently receives $1.5 billion in US aid annually, $1.3 billion of which is designated for the military. The aid includes military equipment, including F-16s.
Ever since the July 3 army coup ousting Egypt's democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, the Obama administration has carefully avoided using the word "coup," since the U.S. has a strict law that aid will be terminated to any country where the army stages a coup against a democratically elected leader. (See "4-Jul-13 World View -- Egypt's army deposes Morsi in a non-coup coup") The administration has repeatedly refused to declare whether a "coup" occurred on July 3, but this report seems to indicate that the administration has finally made up its mind.
Whatever the symbolism of cutting off $1.5 billion in annual aid, there will be little practical effect. The reason is that, with Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood out of government, Egypt has been promised $12 billion in aid from Gulf Arab states that don't like or trust the Muslim Brotherhood -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait -- and reports indicate that the money has been pouring in.
The cutoff of aid has the potential of changing the balance of power in the Mideast. Ever since Egypt and Israel signed the Camp David peace agreement in 1979, America has been providing billions in aid to both Israel and Egypt. With the cutoff of aid, Egypt's government may be under pressure to repudiate the treaty.
Relations between the U.S. and Egypt have been deteriorating steadily, every since President Obama's "apology tour" speech in Cairo in 2009, where he raised everyone's hopes, and where he made promises that could never be kept, with the result that America's popularity in Egypt today is at its lowest point in decades. When the Arab Spring began, President Obama called for Hosni Mubarak to step down, humiliating Mubarak and infuriating King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. In recent months, President Obama has repeatedly damaged American credibility with incompetent flip-flops with respect to the conflict in Syria, endorsement of an Afghanistan peace process that collapsed in 24 hours, and endorsement of a new Mideast "peace process" that's considered a joke in the Mideast. Now, the new report that President Obama is going to end aid to Egypt is going to convince anyone who isn't already convinced that President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry don't have the vaguest clue what they're doing, or what they're going to do next. CNN
North Korea has put its military forces on high alert, after U.S. warships reached South Korea in preparation for scheduled military exercises with South Korea and Japan. According to a statement by North Korea's official news agency, which refers to North Korea as the DPRK and to South Korea as America's puppet:
"That the U.S. and its south Korean puppet trigger-happy forces seek the joint military exercises with a nuclear carrier involved is the revelation of the bellicose attempt to escalate the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the extreme pitch of tension, prevent the dialogue and peace from progressing and attain the ambition for invading the DPRK by openly threatening it with nukes.The South Korean puppet regime plans to deploy the nuclear carrier in waters off south Korea in collusion with the U.S. in a futile bid to frighten the DPRK.
The DPRK will never be browbeaten by it or any other things more powerful than it.
It has all means and forces to cope with any adventurous nuclear war scenarios of the U.S. and the puppet forces. It is fully ready to show its mettle to the bellicose forces running amuck by counting on the nuclear carrier.
The regime would be well advised to be well aware that it is fated to meet the complete ruin which can never be recovered by the nuclear carrier and anything else more powerful than it if it continues pursuing reckless military provocations against the DPRK, backed by its American master."
Evidence is growing that North Korea is restarting its nuclear reactors. TIME and KCNA (Pyongyang)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Oct-13 World View -- U.S. to cut off military aid to Egypt in wake of coup thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Turkey builds a wall along the border with Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Ever since Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi was deposed in an army coup on July 3, the Egyptian people have hoped that the level of violence would settle down, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Gunmen and suicide bombers made multiple attacks on Egypt's security forces on Monday, including a gun attack that killed six soldiers in Ismailia, a Suez Canal city, and a bombing at security headquarters in southern Sinai kill four people, on the other side of the Suez Canal. It comes after clashes on Sunday between security forces and armed civilians, mostly Morsi supporters, resulted in the killing of 51 people. Al-Jazeera and AFP
Turkey has criticized Greece closing the border with Turkey, forcing thousands of would-be immigrants wanting in Turkey wanting to enter Greece to risk being smuggled across the Aegean Sea. And America's fence on the border with Mexico has been mired in controversy. So it's of interest that Turkey is building a two-meter high wall topped with barbed wire fencing along its border with Syria. The wall is expected to span just a fraction of Turkey's 560 mile border with Syria, but after 500,000 Syrian refugees have already crossed over into Turkey since the start of the Syrian civil war, Turkey feels the need to do something. However, Turkey says that it will maintain its "open door" policy to those fleeing the fighting in Syria. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Reuters
Last month, the NY Times published an op-ed written by Russia's president Vladimir Putin in which he criticized the concept of "American exceptionalism" as being dangerous in today's world. But, in fact, it's Russia that has a sense of not just exceptionalism, but exceptionalism derived from God. Recently, President Obama said that America was exceptional because it is not indifferent to human suffering. But that's quite different from Russia's glorification of the quasi-divine status of the Russian state. It's holding this view that let's him do things like invade Georgia, as he did in 2008, and annex two of Georgia's provinces.
Russia's sense of exceptionalism arose after the fall of Constantinople to the Muslim Ottomans in 1453. Constantinople (today's Istanbul) had been the Greek Orthodox Christian successor to Rome after the fall of the Roman Empire. When Constantinople fell, leaders of Russia took on the burden of leading the Christian world as the "third Rome." (In fact, the word "Czar" or "Tsar" is derived from the word "Caesar.") Russia took on the role of the defender of Jerusalem almost fanatically, and that was a prime motivation for Russia's disastrous involvement in the Crimean War, its generational crisis war in the 1850s.
In its next crisis war, the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, there was a harsh adverse reaction to the Crimean War, and not only was the Tsarist state destroyed, but the Russian Orthodox Church itself was almost destroyed, as Russia became an "atheist" Communist country. The Church began to revive in the 1940s with World War II, which was an Awakening era war for the Russians, albeit a particularly brutal one. Since the 1990s, Russian leaders, led by Putin, have sought to revive the special role of the Russian Orthodox Church, allowing the combination of Russia and the Church to return to the state of "exceptionalism" that, in Putin's words, might be dangerous in today's world. Foreign Policy Research Institute
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Oct-13 World View -- Russia's divine sense of exceptionalism thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Libya demands a 'clarification' for the 'kidnapping' of al-Libi
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Divers are still recovering hundreds of bodies of the 500 migrants in a boat that sank on Thursday before reaching Italy's Lampedusa Island from northern Africa. Divers have described nightmarish scenes under water: bodies trapped in the wreckage, locked in a final embrace or lying on the seabed covered in sand. Survivors have told a gruesome story: When the boat's engine failed, the captain burned a T-shirt to attract the attention of Italian coast guards near the short. When the T-shirt burned his hand, he dropped it, setting the boat on fire, causing it to capsize.
So far this year, over 30,000 migrants reached Italy on boats from North Africa, most of them fleeing war in Syria or Somalia, or threats of political imprisonment in Eritrea. Lampedusa has a population of 6,000 and is frequently overwhelmed by the 3,000 or so migrants that arrive there every month, hoping to head north to Germany or the UK. Italy is asking for help from the rest of Europe to cope with the flow of migrants.
Illegal immigration has been a major political issue in Greece, which has received thousands of immigrants flowing from the land border with Turkey or across the Aegean sea. The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn political party had been gaining popularity with a policy of deporting anyone who isn't an ethnic Greek, even legal citizens, until recently when the government declared that it was criminal organization. BBC and Reuters
On Saturday, unnamed Administration officials were saying that Libya had been informed that U.S. special forces were going to snatch up Abu Anas al-Libi in Tripoli. He's been on the FBI most wanted list since the 1990s with a $5 million reward, and has been indicted in in a New York City court on charges of aiding in the bombing of the American embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998. He's now being held for questioning "outside of Libya," presumably on a Navy ship.
But on Sunday, Libya's government said it asked the U.S. for "clarifications" about what it called the "kidnapping," underlining that its citizens should be tried in Libyan courts if accused of a crime. It said it hoped its "strategic partnership" with Washington would not be damaged by the incident. It's thought that the U.S. in fact didn't warn the Libyan government in advance, for fear that they would tip off al-Libi. AP
The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced six more cases of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia, raising the global count to 136 cases with 58 deaths. There is growing concern about a possible pandemic that might begin when millions of Muslims from around the world arrive in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for the Hajj, their once in a lifetime pilgrimage. The Hajj will take place next week, October 13-18, 2013. Saudi officials are advising religious pilgrims to wear masks in crowded places, for their own protection and the protection of others. CIDRAP/U of Minn and Arab News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Oct-13 World View -- With Hajj a week away, Saudi is hit with six new deadly MERS cases thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Iran's politics in turmoil, pitting 'heroic flexibility' versus 'Death to America!'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
U.S. officials are saying that jihadist leader Abu Anas al-Libi was captured in Tripoli, Libya, by U.S. military special operations forces on Saturday, apparently grabbed as he was leaving his home. There were no casualties.
The operation was conducted with the knowledge of the government of Libya, according to U.S. officials. But there is still concern about the possibility of revenge attacks as word spreads about the capture of al-Libi. Last week, Libyans attacked Russia's embassy in Tripoli, forcing all diplomats to be evacuated and returned to Russia. And last year, terrorists attacked the American embassy in Benghazi, killing the U.S. Ambassador and three other diplomats.
Al-Libi is alleged to have been the mastermind for the bombing of the American embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya, on August 7, 1998. He's been indicted in the U.S., and has been on the FBI's most wanted list. He's expected to be brought back to New York City for trial, which should be quite a show. CNN
U.S. Navy Seals conducted a raid of the al-Shabaab jihadist group in Somalia early Saturday morning. The raid was conducted with soldiers rather than using drone strikes, in the hope that some "high-profile targets" could be captured and brought to trial. However, the American forces were forced to withdraw in the face of heavy fire. It's believed that one al-Shabaab leader was killed. There were no U.S. casualties.
The al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab terrorist group has received increased international attention and prominence ever since last month's horrific three-day attack on the Westlake Mall in Nairobi, Kenya. It's recognized that the attack was extremely well-planned and executed, indicating a degree of high sophistication that was previously not recognized in al-Shabaab. Furthermore, two of the Westlake Mall terrorists were American citizens, from a Somali community in Minneapolis. A number of Somalis are known to have gone to Somalia for terrorist training, and returned to the United States, where they can enter freely because they're American citizens. (See "23-Sep-13 World View -- Minnesota link to Kenya shopping mall attack raises U.S. fears") This is raising concerns about the same of shopping malls and other soft targets in the United States. AP and Fox News
The United Nations 'charm offensive' by Iran's new president Hassan Rouhani continues to generate a great deal of controversy within Iran. The charm offensive was triggered by a call from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei to adopt a strategy of "Heroic Flexibility" with respect to America and the West. This phrase has a great deal of historic significance, as it refers to the act of a Muslim hero who reversed his clan's opposition to the message of the prophet Mohamed in the 7th century. (See "21-Sep-13 World View -- Does Iran's 'Heroic Flexibility' signal a real policy change?")
Rouhani was criticized in the West for 'snubbing' president Barack Obama's invitations to meet at the United Nations -- and there were five such invitations, according to news reports. However, any such meeting would have generated enormous controversy in Tehran.
An Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council (IRGC) official, Mohammad Hossein Saffar Harandi, on Friday described the trip to a Tehran audience:
"This is a situation in which our President [Rouhani] went to the UN to solve problems with all options open from the Supreme Leader and a framework of red lines. The American Secretary of State, in opposition to the commitments and statements he made, did not recognize Iran’s right to enrich uranium, said that none of the officials had agreed on Iran’s right to enrichment and said that no changes had taken shape in this area when he spoke to news agencies and the media."
At this point, the audience started chanting "Death to America!", causing Harandi to rebuke the audience for interrupting him, but then he added:
"This anger is due to the past memories of these people, and this can be our message. Of course the chant of Death to America has been and will be reinforced over time, because the people have daggers of Americans in the chest, back, and throat of their children. These past memories are added to their treacherous designs [hidden] behind their diplomatic front. Behind the apparent friendliness, their hostility continues."
To put all this in perspective, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past Iran's last generational crisis war, the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988.
America's last generational Awakening era occurred in the 1960s-70s, one generation past the end of World War II. I recall that one commentator at the time characterized America's relationship with the Soviet Union as follows: "The liberals blame the conservatives for wanting to fight a war against the Soviets, while the conservatives blame the liberals for wanting to turn the entire government over to the control of Moscow." These differences were characterized at the time as a "generation gap," pitting the conservative survivor generations of World War II against the liberal younger generation of Boomers that had grown up after the war.
Iran is going through exactly the same kind of generation gap today. The political faction led by the Islamic Revolution survivors believe that the only way that Iran can survive is to maintain their revolutionary ideals, one of which is constant opposition to the Great Satan and the west. The younger generation almost always wins these battles since, after all, the older generation dies off first. Khamanei's call for "heroic flexibility" and Rouhani's "charm offensive" are part of the Awakening era generational transition going on in Iran today. But the conflict is far from over, and there is little chance of a major dénouement aligning Iran with the West in the near future.
The other important fact about this is that this transition is absolutely unaffected by anything the West does. Iran is now like a teenage girl who's worried about pimples and whether to have sex with her boyfriend, and couldn't care less what some preacher down the street is saying to them. Last week's ten minute phone call between president Barack Obama and Rouhani, which was the subject of so much idolatrous fawning by the press, had no effect in Iran except to generate additional condemnation by the hardliners against Rouhani, and force Khamanei to pull back from his call for heroic flexibility. AEI Iran Tracker and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Oct-13 World View -- Two U.S. military strikes target Libya and Somalia jihadists thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Pro-Morsi demonstrators clash with Egypt's police, with 4 killed
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
With the radical right Golden Dawn party under attack in Greece from arrests of its leadership, Alexis Tspiras , the leader of Greece's radical left party Syriza, is gaining increasing prominence, not only in Greece, but throughout Europe. In Greece, Tspiras was a constant opponent of acceding to the harsh austerity demands of the "Troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- in exchange for the bailout money. Now he's the darling of the communists and socialists across Europe in their fight against alleged nepotism and cronyism in the Troika organizations. Tspiras has been spending time making contacts in Brussels, and next year he's expected to run for the European Parliament or for president of Europe. Le Monde (Paris) / (Trans)
Loyalists of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and deposed president Mohamed Morsi clashed with security forces and local residents on Friday, in the first major confrontation in the seven weeks since the army and police killed hundreds of Morsi supporters. Four people were killed, and another 23 were injured. The pro-Morsi protests were illegal, since the Muslim Brotherhood itself was banned following the ouster of Morsi on July 3. Since Morsi was ousted, the economy has worsened significantly, and attacks by militant groups based in Egypt's Sinai region has risen sharply. Fears are growing that an al-Qaeda linked Islamist insurgency will take hold beyond the Sinai, which borders Israel and the Gaza Strip. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Oct-13 World View -- Greece's radical-left politician Alexis Tspiras gains international prominence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
President Obama 'jawbones' the stock market down
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A series of freak hornet attacks that began in July in northwest China's Shaanxi Province have injured 1,640 people, 42 of them fatally. The cause for the attacks is not known, but one expert attributed the trend to local vegetation growth, which has increased the area populated by hornets, and two months of continuous hot weather, which has made the insects more active. Xinhua and National Post
Russia has evacuated its diplomats from Libya on Thursday, sending them next door to Tunisia, after a group of about 60 people on Wednesday tried to force their way into the compound of Russia's embassy in Tripoli. The perpetrators are believed to be relatives and friends of a Libyan officer who was murdered by a Russian woman a day before the attack, according to Russia's Foreign Ministry. No Russians were injured, and two attackers were killed. Moscow Times and Tripoli Post
Presidents always like to "jawbone" the stock market up, such as when President Herbert Hoover said, in the middle of the 1930s financial crisis, "Prosperity is just around the corner" and "Now is the time to buy." But President Barack Obama is trying the opposite strategy in the current financial crisis. An interview with CNBC went like this:
JOHN HARWOOD: You mentioned calm. Wall Street's been pretty calm about this [the shutdown]. The reaction I would say, generally speaking, has been, "Washington fighting, Washington posturing, yaddah, yaddah, yaddah." Is that the right way for them to look at it?PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: No, I think this time's different. I think they should be concerned.
President Obama went on to explain that if he negotiated with the Republicans now, then he'd be setting a precedent, and he'd have to negotiate with the Republicans in the future -- "[W]e'd have to go through it again six months from now and six months after that." Real Clear Politics
There have been numerous stories of Obamacare insurance exchange web sites repeatedly crashing, ever since they opened on Tuesday. Obamacare officials are saying that they're crashing because they're too popular. For example, California officials claimed that the state's web site got 5 million hits on Tuesday, causing it to crash.
As someone who's been a software engineer for several decades, I can tell you that story is fishy. There are lots of web sites, like Amazon.com for example, that handle many hits gracefully. And these people have had three years to implement the Obamacare web sites.
What I believe happened, since I've seen it several times in my own experience, is that some college graduates who implemented web sites as homework assignments in computer programming courses, were put in charge of implementing the Obamacare web sites. I can assure you, Dear Reader, that that's a recipe for disaster.
And now it turns out that California's web site didn't get 5 million hits on Tuesday after all. The corrected total: 645,000 hits. LA Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Oct-13 World View -- Russia evacuates diplomats from Libya after embassy attack thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Venezuela's president Maduro backs Putin for Nobel Peace Price
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Last week, activists from the "eco-terrorist" group Greenpeace attempted to scale a Gazprom offshore oil platform in the Arctic Ocean, hoping that the big publicity stunt would embarrass the Russians. ( "25-Sep-13 World View -- Greenpeace tangles with the wrong country -- Russia")
Russia arrested 30 Greenpeace activists, and towed their boat back to the port of Murmansk. All 30 are expected to be held at least until November 24, but on Wednesday, 14 of them were charged with piracy, which carries a possible sentence of 15 years. The rest are expected to be charged with piracy tomorrow. Greenpeace called the piracy charges "absurd." Moscow Times
Large mobs with hundreds of Buddhists attacked Muslims with knives and sticks in the coastal city of Thandwe in Burma/Myanmar on Tuesday evening, stabbing one 94-year-old Muslim woman to death, and burning down dozens of homes and a mosque. Muslim residents fled into the woods to escape the attacks. Tuesday's attack is the latest in a series of attacks by Buddhists of Muslims in Burma, killing hundreds of Muslims, and displacing hundreds of thousands from their homes, forcing them into refugee camps.
The leader of the Buddhist anti-Muslim jihad is Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu, who says that he's just trying to protect Burma from Muslims. He calls his movement the "969" movement, where 969 is a historic Buddhist sign, referring to the nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and nine qualities of the Buddhist community. 969 is supposed to promote peace and happiness, although Wirathu's 969 movement is a vehicle promoting violence,
Burma's president Thein Sein has condemned the violence in general, but has refrained from criticizing Wirathu or the 969 movement. Then there's opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who is one of the world's Nobel Peace Prize winners, but who won't speak out against Burma's Buddhists smashing innocent Muslims.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics it's pretty obvious that a full-scale crisis civil war building between the Buddhists and the Muslims. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht".) That's going to explode into a major bloodbath before too much longer. LA Times and CS Monitor and CNN (April)
Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been nominated for Nobel Peace Prize, and so he may be joining the esteemed ranks of president Barack Obama and Burma's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro is supporting Putin's nomination, saying:
"If anyone deserves the Nobel Peace Prize at this historic moment in time it is President Vladimir Putin, who helped stop a war that would have destroyed the lives of many who deserve to live in peace, like those of the Syrian people."
Putin has been supplying heavy weapons to Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad, for use, along with chemical weapons, in genocidal slaughtering of masses of innocent Syrian civilians. Instead of Putin getting the Nobel Peace Prize, perhaps what would make the most sense of all is if al-Assad got the Nobel Peace Prize. The Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded on October 11. Moscow Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Oct-13 World View -- Buddhist violence against Muslims in Burma/Myanmar continues to spread thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Vatican Bank reacts to allegations of international money-laundering
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
For the first time in its history, the Institute for the Works of Religion (IOR), usually referred to as the Vatican Bank, has published an annual report. According to the report, the 2012 earnings are 86.6 million euros, with 5 billion euros in assets.
At the same time, the IOR may be forced to close all its international embassy accounts. This is consequence of a three-year investigation that appears to indicate that Iran, Iraq and Indonesia have been using the IOR to launder tens of millions of dollars. The investigation began in 2009, but was blocked several times by other Vatican officials. When Francis became Pope several months ago, he revived the investigation, resulting in the resignation on July 1 of the director of the Vatican Bank under allegations of money laundering. Catholic Herald and Reuters
Because of counter-narcotics policies in Colombia and Mexico organized crime syndicates have been forced relocate to other Latin American countries, where they're meeting a lot less resistance. The model is Venezuela, where deals between drug gangs and Hugo Chávez turned Venezuela into a narcostate. Now, Honduras is being targeted, thanks to the political chaos that followed the 2009 attempt by the Marxist Chávez acolyte Manuel Zelaya to illegally modify the constitution. Zelaya's Marxist allies are encouraging drug trafficking in Honduras in order to make the country ungovernable, allowing a Marxist coup. By 2011, Honduras had one of the highest homicide rates in the world, with 91.6 homicides per 100,000 residents. Today, the US State Department’s 2013 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report estimates "87 percent of all cocaine smuggling flights departing South America first land in Honduras." AEI
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Oct-13 World View -- Drug cartel networks move to Honduras from Mexico and Colombia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Terrorist attack in northwest Pakistan 3rd Sunday in a row
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
I know that this is hard to believe, but there's actually been news in other places around the world besides Washington.
 |
Two car bombs exploded in the historic Qissa Khwani bazaar marketplace in Peshawar, Pakistan, on Sunday, killing at least 42 people. A two story building collapsed, and at least 50 shops were damaged or completely destroyed.
This is the third Sunday in a row where a major terrorist attack has occurred in or around Peshawar -- an attack killed three army officers on September 15 in Upper Dir, just north of Peshawar, and a major attack on a Christian Church in Peshawar on September 22 killed 84. In addition, on Friday, bomb blew up a bus carrying government employees on the edge of Peshawar, killing 18 people.
This would appear to be the final nail in the coffin of the plan by the new prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to negotiate with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP - the Pakistani Taliban) to end terrorist attacks in Pakistan. As soon as the peace talks were proposed, the TTP immediately started to impose conditions: TTP prisoners must be released from jail, the army must be withdrawn from the tribal areas where it has been fighting the Taliban, and the government must agree to impose Sharia law on the country. And then the TTP stepped up its terror attacks. So the TTP is humiliating the Pakistan government with promises of peace talks in the same way that Russia and Syria are humiliating the American government. Daily Times (Pakistan) and LA Times
As we wrote last week, Venezuela's economy is approaching full-scale hyperinflation, with the inflation rate at 45.4%, thanks to the extravagant spending and vote-buying by the late president, Hugo Chávez. (See "26-Sep-13 World View -- Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation")
The country is plagued by shortages of everything from milk and cooking oil to toothpaste and toilet paper, and now Chávez's Socialist successor, Nicolás Maduro, has decided to blame the United States. According to Maduro in a televised speech to the nation:
"We detected a group of U.S. embassy officials dedicated to meeting the far-right and to financing and encouraging acts of sabotage against the electrical system and Venezuela's economy.I have the proof here in my hands. ... Yankees go home! Get out of Venezuela! Get out of here! I don't care what actions the government of Barack Obama takes. I'm not going to allow any action that stirs violence in this country."
There's no U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela, so Maduro has expelled America's chargé d'affaires in Venezuela, along with two diplomats.
Apparently, not everyone in Venezuela agrees with Maduro. Opposition leader Henrique Capriles called Maduro's speech a "joke alert," and said, "It's just smoke to cover up that they can't manage the country!" Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Oct-13 World View -- Venezuela blames disastrous economy on U.S. economic 'sabotage' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Oct-2013)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004
Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004