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Camels in Qatar found infected with deadly MERS virus
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus) has already infected about 170 people, mostly in Saudi Arabia. The virus is particularly deadly, since almost 40% of those infected have died. Health officials are puzzled because they have not yet been able to identify the "animal reservoir" that is allowing the virus to infect and kill humans, despite the fact that it's not yet being transmitted from human to human.
Active MERS infections have now been found in three camels in Qatar, indicating that camels may be the animal reservoir allowing the virus to spread. The three camels were asymptomatic, meaning that they carried active infections, but showed no external symptoms. Prior tests on racing camels in Oman and animals imported by Egypt from Sudan (for slaughter) signal high degree of infections, indicating that MERS is widespread in camels throughout the Middle East. Recombinomics and Reuters
The United States military is making daily flights into China's recently declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, but without complying with Chinese demands to notify Chinese authorities in advance. According to an unnamed Pentagon official:
"It’s very important the U.S. signal to the Chinese that we’re not going to be bullied and that we’re going to adhere to our commitments."
According to a Chinese air force spokesman, two U.S. and 10 Japanese aircraft were monitoring targets in the zone, and that the Chinese air force and navy were scrambling warplanes to monitor them.
According to Liu Jieyi, China's ambassador to the United Nations:
"It is indeed the right of every country to defend its airspace, and also to make sure that its territorial integrity, its sovereignty, are safeguarded. This is a normal arrangement."
Apparently the intention is that warplanes from each of the three countries will be "patrolling" the ADIZ on a daily basis, in order to safeguard its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
However, U.S. administration officials are advising commercial airlines to comply with China's demands when flying into the ADIZ. CNN and Bloomberg
Standard & Poors ratings agency on Friday downgraded the debt rating of the Netherlands to AA+, saying, "The downgrade reflects our opinion that the Netherlands' growth prospects are now weaker than we had previously anticipated." This leaves only three countries remaining in the 17 country eurozone with an AAA rating: Germany, Luxembourg and Finland. The only other countries still having AAA ratings are: Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Switzerland, Australia, Canada and Singapore. Expatica
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Nov-13 World View -- China vs U.S. air confrontations are now a daily occurrence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Nov-2013)
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China sends jets into air defense zone, after flights by U.S., Japan and S. Korea
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Almost exactly five years ago, on November 26, 2008, ten members of the Pakistani jihadist group, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) landed on the Mumbai, India, shoreline, having traveled by boat from Karachi in Pakistan. What followed was a 60-hour shooting rampage, one of the most horrific terrorist attacks of the decade, killing 164 people. (See "Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba suspected in terrorist attack on Mumbai (Bombay), India" from 2008.)
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) had taken precautions to prevent the blame for the attack to traced back to them. The plan was that all the participating terrorists would fight to the death, and there would be no claim of responsibility. However, one of the gunmen was captured by Indian police during the attack (and later hanged), and two LeT leaders were captured by Indians and Americans after the attack, allowing interrogators to get full details about the operational planning. Furthermore, America's signals intelligence capability was able to find an electronic trail for the attack that led back not only to LeT, but also to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. The most likely motive for the attack is now believed to be LeT's desire to develop closer relations with ISI, at the expense of other jihadist groups in Pakistan. In the aftermath, India was considering a military attack on LeT on Pakistan's soil, something that might have led to an India-Pakistan war, but this was headed off by hard intervention on both sides from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
As early as April 5, 2005, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said:
"There can be no political compromise with terror. No inch conceded. No compassion shown… There are no good terrorists and bad terrorists. There is no cause, root or branch, that can ever justify the killing of innocent people. No democratic Government can tolerate the use of violence against innocent people and against the functionaries of a duly established democratic Government."
After the 26/11 Mumbai attack, there was a burst of counter-terrorism energy, but it dropped off quickly. Since then, virtually nothing has been done to strengthen counter-terrorism efforts.
In the meantime, LeT and its Indian counterpart, Indian Mujahideen (IM) "have enlarged their network and developed capabilities to carry out acts of terror at short notice in various parts of the country... Evidence gathered from various cases indicates Pakistan continues to nurture terrorist groups," according to Indian police officials.
With the breach in Mumbai 26/11 coming from the sea, there was enormous rhetorical focus on strengthening coastal security, and much was claimed by the government thereafter of measures taken to secure this objective. Five years later, however, it would be necessary to concede that, fitful efforts notwithstanding, India remains as vulnerable to terrorist attacks along its coastline as it was in 2008. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and ISN Security Watch (Zurich) and Technorati
China sent its Su-30 and J-11 fighter jets on Thursday into its recently announced Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), accompanied by a KJ-2000 airborne radar early warning system. China's military said it sent the warplanes as a "defensive measure" to patrol the ADIZ and the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. China's move came hours after Japan and South Korea challenged China's claim to the ADIZ by sending their own warplanes into the zone, and that came two days after the U.S. did the same. These and other countries have refused to recognize the Chinese-declared ADIZ.
Chinese officials had initially reacted calmly to the U.S. overflights by simply acknowledging them and saying the Chinese military had monitored them without taking action. But that measured response quickly ignited fierce criticism by highly nationalistic Chinese bloggers. (See "28-Nov-13 World View -- Nationalistic bloggers ridicule China over America's B-52s") Pressure from the blogger community apparently forced the Beijing government to take more confrontational action.
The danger is that continued confrontations of this type will eventually lead to accidental or intentional combat, especially with nationalism growing in Japan as well as in China. My personal belief is that China would not want to stumble into a war this way. China is actively preparing for full-scale war with the United States, but they would want maximum surprise for maximum effectiveness. VOA and CNN
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USS George Washington nuclear powered aircraft carrier was back in combat mode after its recent detour to the Philippines to take part in the aid effort in the wake of Super Typhoon Haiyan. It's patrolling waters off the island of Okinawa as part of a huge naval exercise -- AnnualEx 2013 -- involving dozens of warships, submarines and aircraft from the U.S. Navy's 7th fleet and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). The war games were planned long before China's ADIZ announcement last week, but the war games will not enter the ADIZ region. However, the increased tension in the East China Sea gives the annual war games special significance this year. CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Nov-13 World View -- India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Nov-2013)
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Iran rejects White House summary of nuclear agreement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), based at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, is making sure that tens of thousands of American soldiers on the front lines in Afghanistan can enjoy a Thanksgiving Day meal featuring turkey, mashed potatoes, gravy, stuffing and pumpkin pie. According to Scott Anderson:
"The last I saw, we were nearing 100 percent ready for Thanksgiving. That means all the turkeys are there for our troops so they're ready to have a Thanksgiving meal on Thanksgiving. And we'll turn to and get ready for Christmas. There are some special meals that we make sure our troops are taken care of."
Never let it be said that I can't post a happy good news story. WUSF (Florida)
There was a flood of support by Chinese bloggers when China announced on Saturday that it was establishing an "Air Defense Identification Zone" (ADIZ) encompassing the East China Sea, including Japan's Senkaku Islands, and demanded that any aircraft flying through the ADIZ must report to China's military, or face military "defensive" measures. Bloggers wrote,
"Claiming what is ours and now defending what is ours. This is something that is worth fighting for."
But then on Tuesday, when U.S. B-52s flew into the ADIZ and were unchallenged by China's military, the support turned to ridicule. "That's it?" asked several bloggers. Others said the government would be an international "laughing stock" and "will face international ridicule." Others called the ADIZ a farce.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is an extremely dangerous situation. Those who refer to some statement or other by president Xi Jinping as proof that China has no intention to start a war don't understand what's going on. It's not the octogenarians in Central Committee who are going to drive China to launch a war. It's the highly nationalistic younger generations, the soldiers, the middle managers, the girls who send their heroes out to fight, who make the day to day decisions that create situations that lead to war. Chances are that this decision to set up the ADIZ was made, or at least heavily promoted and supported, by highly nationalistic 30-50 year olds in the government and military bureaucracies, and this is exactly the kind of thing that can lead to a confrontation that can spiral into full scale war. International Business Times (Australia) and VOA
As I've mentioned a couple of times, in the news conferences that followed last weekend's nuclear agreement with Iran, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that Iran had no right to enrich uranium, while Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gloated that Iran had preserved its right to enrich uranium. The contrast between these two statements was so dramatic that I've been wondering whether anyone would even point it out, or whether it would just be swept under the rug like most things these days.
Iran has now rejected the summary of the nuclear agreement that was posted on the White House web site. According to the foreign ministry:
"What has been released by the website of the White House as a fact sheet is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed text in Geneva and some of the explanations and words in the sheet contradict the text of the Joint Plan of Action (the title of the Iran-powers deal), and this fact sheet has unfortunately been translated and released in the name of the Geneva agreement by certain media, which is not true."
Iran doesn't state what the specific contradictions are, but they almost certainly have to do with enrichment. Free Beacon (Washington) and Fars (Tehran) and White House
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Nov-13 World View -- Nationalistic bloggers ridicule China over America's B-52s thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Nov-2013)
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France to send troops to Central African Republic in 'chaos'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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America has flown two unarmed B-52 bombers on a training mission in defiance of the "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone" that China announced over the weekend. (See "24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands".)
China announced that all aircraft flying into the region would be required to identify themselves to China's military, and to provide flight plans and other information to China. China threatened military action against any aircraft that didn't comply.
According to the air force, the B-52s remained in the region for an hour. They did not identify themselves, and there was no confrontation of any kind.
China's announced identification zone stretches far enough into the East China Sea to include the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, one of the many regions that have historically belonged to China's neighbors, but over which China is demanding full sovereignty anyway. The U.S. Dept. of Defense has reaffirmed that it will defend Japan's ownership of the Senkaku Islands:
"We remain steadfast in our commitments to our allies and partners. The United States reaffirms its longstanding policy that Article V of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands."
The treaty was signed in 1960. CNN and U.S. Dept. of Defense
France announced that it will send 1,000 troops to the Central African Republic (CAR), where the United Nations is reporting "humanitarian chaos," with torture, massacres, rapes, summary executions and recruitment of child soldiers in violence between Christian militias and Seleka rebels who are mostly Muslim. French troops will work alongside a 2,500 strong African Union peacekeeping force that's already there, in an effort to prevent the violence from spreading to neighboring countries. France expects the intervention to last six months.
This would be France's second major military operation in Africa this year. It was in January of this year that France launched a massive military operation to drive al-Qaeda linked Ansar al-Dine terrorists from towns in northern Mali. ( "18-Jan-13 World View -- Did France kick a hornet's nest with military intervention in Mali?") That operation was only supposed to last a couple of months, but there are still active Ansar al-Dine cells, and the French are still there, with withdrawal now scheduled for February of next year. Euro News and France 24 and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Nov-13 World View -- U.S. B-52 warplanes challenge China's 'Sea Air Identification Zone' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Nov-2013)
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Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Iranians cheered foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on his return to Tehran, after successfully negotiating the nuclear deal in Geneva. He was praised as an "ambassador of peace", and chants rang out, "No to war, sanctions, surrender and insult."
In particular, they were jubilant that Zarif was able to gloat that he won the concession that Iran can continue enriching nuclear material, and will continue. Zarif directly contradicted the claim by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry after the deal had been signed that Iran had no right to enrich, but Zarif gloated, "Enrichment was recognized." Defeating the West on enrichment was a key point of pride for the Iranians, resulting in the jubilation.
This was only a six-month deal, to buy time before reaching a final deal. According to the U.N. resolutions on the subject, Iran must stop enriching. It remains to be seen which side will back down on the issue of enriching. CS Monitor and Time
Imran Khan, Pakistan's former cricket superstar turned anti-American politician, has called on his supporters in his Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) political party to blockade transit routes used by trucks to carry Nato supplies from the port at Karachi through Pakistan to Afghanistan. Khan called for the blockade after a November 21 American drone strike killed two senior Haqqani network leaders, along with three Taliban leaders. (See "22-Nov-13 World View -- New American drone strike stirs outrage in Pakistan")
Khan is threatening to continue the blockade until all American drone strikes are ended. Khan wants to end Taliban terrorism politically by negotiating with the terrorists, a concept that can be accurately defined as a fantasy. According to Khan:
"Pakistan cannot take this any longer. It has paid a heavy price for participating in the US war in Afghanistan and I'm afraid the time has come to change strategy. And the strategy is political settlement. But there won't be a political settlement as long as there are drone attacks."
Khan's power base is the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, bordering on Pakistan's tribal area which, in turn, borders on Afghanistan. Khan is setting national policy from a provincial level, and he's not receiving support from Pakistan's president Nawaz Sharif, or the national government. So it's not expected that the blockade will last so long that it will harm the Nato forces, especially since they expected the blockade and are prepared for it. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Channel News Asia (Singapore)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Nov-13 World View -- Jubilation in Tehran over Iran's nuclear deal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Nov-2013)
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Members of Congress from both parties object to Iran deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Iran and six major powers, meeting in Geneva, agreed Sunday morning on a historic deal that freezes key parts of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for temporary relief on some economic sanctions.
President Barack Obama hailed the agreement:
"Today, that diplomacy opened up a new path toward a world that is more secure -- a future in which we can verify that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful and that it cannot build a nuclear weapon.While today’s announcement is just a first step, it achieves a great deal. For the first time in nearly a decade, we have halted the progress of the Iranian nuclear program, and key parts of the program will be rolled back. Iran has committed to halting certain levels of enrichment and neutralizing part of its stockpiles. Iran cannot use its next-generation centrifuges, which are used for enriching uranium. Iran cannot install or start up new centrifuges, and its production of centrifuges will be limited. Iran will halt work at its plutonium reactor. And new inspections will provide extensive access to Iran’s nuclear facilities and allow the international community to verify whether Iran is keeping its commitments.
These are substantial limitations which will help prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Simply put, they cut off Iran’s most likely paths to a bomb. Meanwhile, this first step will create time and space over the next six months for more negotiations to fully address our comprehensive concerns about the Iranian program. And because of this agreement, Iran cannot use negotiations as cover to advance its program."
White House and Washington Post
Directly contradicting Obama's statement that the nuclear agreement with Iran opened "a new path to world that is more secure," Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu said that the world had become a more dangerous place:
"What was accomplished last night in Geneva is not a historic agreement; it’s a historic mistake,” Netanyahu said at the start of Sunday morning’s weekly cabinet meeting. “Today the world has become much more dangerous, because the most dangerous regime in the world took a meaningful step toward acquiring the most dangerous weapon in the world.For the first time the world’s leading powers agreed to the enrichment of uranium in Iran, while ignoring the Security Council resolutions that they themselves championed,” the prime minister said. “These sanctions have been removed for cosmetic Iranian concessions that can be canceled in weeks. This agreement and what it means threaten many countries, and including, of course, Israel. Israel is not bound by this agreement. The regime in Iran is committed to Israel’s destruction and Israel has the right and responsibility to defend itself, by itself, against any threat."
The Arab states have been largely quiet so far about the deal, but Abdullah al-Askar, a foreign affairs official from Saudi Arabia, said:
"I am afraid Iran will give up something on to get something else from the big powers in terms of regional politics. And I'm worrying about giving Iran more space or a freer hand in the region.The government of Iran, month after month, has proven that it has an ugly agenda in the region, and in this regard no one in the region will sleep and assume things are going smoothly."
Askar added that if Iran builds a bomb, then a number of other countries will do the same, including "Egypt, maybe Turkey, Saudi Arabia, maybe the Emirates." Times of Israel and Reuters
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The nuclear deal was hailed as a victory by the two most powerful men in the country, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and president Hassan Rouhani. The general public greeted the agreement with joy and pleasure, because it signaled the beginning of the end of Western sanctions that had hobbled the economy. Many of them thanked Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif for negotiating the deal.
"Thank you negotiators! Thank you Mr Zarif!""God bless you smiling man. Your smile has made a nation happy."
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called it a "win-win" for everyone:
"The very long and difficult negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program have ended, an agreement has been reached, and this deal crowns [our] longstanding relations, during which we’ve seen both ups and downs. ...Iran has agreed to a range of additional measures apart from those that the agency is already undertaking. So I believe that in the long run, it’s win-win for everyone. [The negotiators] felt that the declarations [from Iran] about wishing to find a solution had a serious basis. This became apparent in the negotiating positions of our Iranian colleagues."
AFP and Russia Today
According to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Iran has the right to a peaceful nuclear program, but does not have the right to enrich uranium or plutonium. According to Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif, Iran has a sacred right to continue to enrich. This disagreement was left unresolved by the deal.
Many people are comparing the Iran situation to that of North Korea. The North Koreans negotiated a deal to get sanctions removed in return for ending their nuclear program, and then they ignored the deal, and now have nuclear weapons.
The Iran sanctions have always been largely bipartisan, and there were bipartisan objections to the Iran deal. Here's the statement of Georgia Republican Saxby Chambliss, which is fairly representative of the objections:
"Now is not the time to ease sanctions when they are working. We’ve got all the leverage in the negotiation and we’ve let them out of the trap.We have trusted the Iranians before just like the North Koreans on nuclear issues, and what have we gotten for it? They continue to hide their development of these weapons. And you know in spite of their agreement here to reduce the enrichment, the 20 percent stockpile they have enriched, they can go to North Korea and buy that from them in a heartbeat.
I think you’re going to see a strong movement in the United States Senate to move ahead to tighten sanctions. Now there will have to be some timeframe in there. They’ve done this deal. And this can be done without the approval of Congress. So for the next six months it looks like this deal is going to be in place. And it may be that we have to pass a resolution that puts sanctions on effective three months, four months, six months, whatever it might be."
According to Senator Carl Levin, Democratic chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, "If Iran does not consent to a comprehensive agreement that ensures it cannot acquire a nuclear weapon, there is a broad consensus in Congress to impose even tougher sanctions." Atlanta Journal-Constitution and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Nov-13 World View -- 'Historic' Iran nuclear deal raises worldwide controversy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Nov-2013)
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Ukraine commemorates the 80th anniversary of Stalin's Holodomor famine
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Saying that Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is meddling in Egypt's affairs, Egypt announced on Saturday that is expelling Turkey's ambassador. Relations between Turkey and Egypt have been extremely tense since the July 3 ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood government of president Mohamed Morsi, with whom Erdogan had a close, cordial relationship. Egypt has frequently complained about Erdogan's repeated statements harshly criticizing Egypt's current government, and apparently Egypt finally decided it had had enough. According to Egypt's foreign ministry:
"[The Turkish] leadership has persisted in its unacceptable and unjustified positions by trying to turn the international community against Egyptian interests and ... by making statements that can only be described as an offense to the popular will. ...We decided to withdraw our ambassador from Turkey and summon the Turkish ambassador in Cairo to inform him he is persona non grata and ask him to leave the country. ...
The people and government of Egypt appreciate the people of Turkey. However, they hold the Turkish government responsible for taking ties between the two nations so far [that] such procedures have to be taken."
The expulsion apparently caught Turkey's government by surprise, but Erdogan reacted quickly, giving the "four-finger salute" during a press conference, which he has done often. (See "24-Aug-13 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan adopts Muslim Brotherhood's four-fingered salute".)
According to Erdogan:
"I will never have respect for those who come to power through coups. [Turkey doesn't respect those who] don't respect the sovereignty rights of peoples."
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Zaman (Ankara)
Fresh from major political victories in Syria, resulting in the humiliation of the United States, Russia's president Vladimir Putin has scored a major political victory over the European Union in Ukraine. Just a week before Ukraine was to have signed a major trade agreement with the European Union, Ukraine bowed to enormous pressure, bordering on extortion, from Putin, and ended negotiations. According to Vice Prime Minister Yuri Boiko:
"We were not convinced that the losses in our commercial relations with Russia – which we’ve been suffering over the last four months – would be balanced by the future sales of our products in European markets."
The government's surprise reversal, after months of negotiations and promises, is infuriating the opposition. Relations within Ukraine are bitter, since the population of eastern Ukraine are mostly ethnic Russians, about 17% of the population, while western Ukraine is populated mostly by ethnic Ukrainians, about 78%, and this capitulation to the Russians is provoking protests, though not sufficiently large protests to continue negotiations with the EU. Kyiv Post and Bloomberg
Ukrainians on Saturday commemorated the 80th anniversary of the Holodomor, the 1932-33 genocidal famine that killed as many as 10 million people. Russia's dictator Josef Stalin, wanting to starve the Ukrainian peasants into submission to the Communist party, send brigades of Communist Party activists swept through the villages and took everything that was edible. Stalin closed the borders in an attempt to keep the genocide secret, but details are known thanks to one journalist, Gareth Jones, who risked his life to report first-hand on what was happening. (See "UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 famine in Ukraine" from 2009.)
According to one survivor:
"The brigades took all the wheat, barley - everything - so we had nothing left. Even beans that people had set aside just in case. The brigades crawled everywhere and took everything. People had nothing left to do but die."
Russia objects to the "genocide" label, and that the Holodomor was not intentional. BBC and Kyiv Post
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In a major escalation of tensions with Japan, China has announced the creation of an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone," which says that China’s Ministry of National Defense will have administrative responsibility for the entire East China Sea region, including the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands that have historically belonged to Japan. According to the announcement:
"[All] aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone should follow the instructions of the [Ministry of National Defense]. ...China’s armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions."
However, the ministry added, "Normal flights by international air liners in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone will not be affected in any way."
China has repeatedly demanded to take sovereignty over regions of the South China Sea and East China Sea that have historically belonged to other nations, and has threatened to use its vast military power against anyone who disagrees. The reason is that China wants to take control of the vast oil and gas resources in these regions. In particular, a naval confrontation of some kind around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands between Chinese and Japanese warships has been almost a daily occurrence for over a year. Now, China is escalating its level of confrontation to air power as well. BBC and The Diplomat
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Nov-2013)
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Afghanistan security agreement may be close to collapse
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Afghanistan's president Hamid Karzai has apparently torpedoed the security agreement with the U.S. that Secretary of State John Kerry had been negotiating. This is the agreement that authorizes American soldiers to remain in Afghanistan past the official 2014 withdrawal. It was thought that once Afghanistan's grand assembly, the "Loya Jirga," approved the security agreement, then Karzai would sign it, and the deal would be complete. But everyone was shocked when Karzai said that even after the Loya Jirga approval, the agreement would not be signed until after the elections of April 5, 2014. Kerry's spokesman Jen Psaki said,
"Failure to conclude (the deal) ... would be seen as a signal to the world that Afghanistan is not committed to a partnership with its supporters and that it is willing to jeopardize all of the financial and practical help that has been offered."
The entire Mideast is littered with failed peace deals and betrayed promises from Kerry and the Barack Obama administration, so unless Kerry can convince Karzai to change his mind, this will be just one more. AP and Reuters
On the 50th anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, a lot of people who evidently don't have the vaguest clue what his principles were are lauding him for their own purposes. Here are a few paragraphs from his 1961 inaugural address:
"We dare not forget today that we are the heirs of that first revolution. Let the word go forth from this time and place, to friend and foe alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans—born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage—and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this Nation has always been committed, and to which we are committed today at home and around the world.Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty. ...
In the long history of the world, only a few generations have been granted the role of defending freedom in its hour of maximum danger. I do not shrink from this responsibility—I welcome it. I do not believe that any of us would exchange places with any other people or any other generation. The energy, the faith, the devotion which we bring to this endeavor will light our country and all who serve it—and the glow from that fire can truly light the world.
And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country."
People on tv keep asking about JFK's ideology. Politicians today can't even imagine taking a stand on principle. There's nothing but ideology.
Kennedy's address had nothing to do with ideology. It was based on his life experience.
He was in the generations that had seen massive famine and genocide. He had seen American soldiers tortured, mutilated and killed on the Bataan death march, or shot down like fish in a barrel on the beaches of Normandy. He had seen America and its allies kill millions of civilians, women and children, with huge firebombs and nuclear weapons. He had seen human beings at their worst, worse than the most vicious animals. And he was saying that America must pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship to keep it from happening again, because he knew that paying that price was a tiny fraction of the cost of not paying it.
Can you imagine any politician, particularly any Democrat, saying anything like that today? Politicians were different in 1961 because they had survived the worst war in world history. Today's politicians think that the generations that survived that war are simply full of crap.
Today, under the leadership of President Barack Obama, Washington has turned into a cesspool. Any lie is OK, any law can be violated, because the Administration is lawless. Financiers who had defrauded millions of Americans with fraudulent subprime mortgage backed synthetic securities still appear on CNBC and lie about stock valuations (price/earnings ratios).
(By the way, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations) on Friday (November 22) morning was 18.85, which is a new recent high, and astronomical by historic standards, indicating that stocks are far overpriced, and the stock market bubble is worse than ever.)
The Russians and Iranians are providing massive weapons and military support to one of the worst genocidal monsters since World War II, Syria's Bashar al-Assad. Europe is seeing the rise of Nazi groups that dominated World War II. And China is massively preparing for preemptive thermonuclear war with the United States, while America's armed forces are cutting back.
We could use a little of JFK's attitude about now. Kennedy's Inaugural Address
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Nov-13 World View -- JFK: We shall pay any price, bear any burden for the success of liberty thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Nov-2013)
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Climate change activists walk out of climate change conference
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At least two senior Haqqani network leaders, along with three Taliban leaders, were killed by an American drone strike in Pakistan on Thursday. The drone strike targeted a madrassa run by the Haqqani network, which has been responsible for numerous terrorist attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan. They are blamed for thousands of U.S. military deaths in Afghanistan.
The drone strike has stirred outrage in Pakistan. First, it occurred just a day after the U.S. reportedly promised the Pakistanis that there would be no more drone strikes for a while. And second, it occurred in a densely populated area with a civilian government in Pakistan's northwest, while previous drone strikes have been in the sparely populated tribal area, a strip of land on the border with Afghanistan. Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesman condemned the drone strike, saying that they were a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Imran Khan, Pakistan's former cricket superstar turned anti-American politician, is planning to hold a large rally on Saturday. According to Khan:
"We will announce at the protest on Saturday that we will permanently block the supply route until they stop drone attacks. If it’s in our hands, we will block it today. Our powers are that we can tell them that NATO supplies can’t pass through our province."
Khan has threatened to block the U.S. supply route through Pakistan to Afghanistan many times before, but this would be the first time he carries through with the threat, if he does. Pakistan's politicians publicly object to the drone strikes, but it's widely believed that they support the drone strikes in private. AFP and Daily Times (Pakistan)
Over 800 representatives of NGOs (non-governmental organizations) staged a walkout from climate change negotiations being held in Warsaw, Poland. India's Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan came forth with the following gobbledygook:
"I fully share the sentiments of the NGOs and call on developed countries to show their determination to implement commitments and increase their ambition to address the mitigation gap and provide enhanced means of implementation and ensure that the negotiations reach a meaningful conclusion in the Conference of Parties.It is a matter of deep concern to my country that there has been absolutely no progress in any of the issues of interest to developing countries in this Conference of Parties.
Discussions on crucial issues of direct importance to developing countries like finance, technology and Loss and Damage have remained deadlocked due to lack of will by developed country Parties."
The last sentence was pretty clear, and encapsulates the whole point of the NGO's protest: They want the U.S. and Europe to pay billions of dollars to them (the NGOs) and to favored political leaders who, history has shown, will simply pocket the money. I have never heard these people utter even a single credible sentence that paying money will lead to reduced carbon emissions. What they're conducting is a financial scam, and they're furious because no one is listening, even the ultra-liberal Barack Obama. The Hindu
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Nov-13 World View -- New American drone strike stirs outrage in Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Nov-2013)
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China relents and sends 'Peace Ark' hospital ship to Philippines
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Secretary of State John Kerry said Wednesday that the U.S. and Afghan governments have agreed on terms for a security arrangement to allow U.S. military presence to continue in Afghanistan after the main force withdrawal in 2014. There are currently 60,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, down from a peak of about 100,000. The agreement does not specify the size of the force that will remain after 2014.
The main area of contention in negotiating the agreement is a provision that gives the U.S. military legal jurisdiction over its forces. This means that if an American soldier commits a crime, then he'll be prosecuted in American courts, rather than in Afghan courts. Iraq had refused a similar provision in its joint security agreement with the U.S., and so American forces were withdrawn completely in December 2011. Since then, al-Qaeda linked terrorist violence in Iraq has surged.
However, the Afghan agreement still must be reviewed by a "loya jirga," or tribal council, that Afghan President Hamid Karzai has convened this week in Kabul. The council could raise objections that might delay or even prevent a signing. In particular, Karzai has demanded an apology for behavior of the U.S. troops, which the Obama administration has already refused to provide. USA Today
International pressure is forcing China again to reluctantly relent on its stingy aid response to the Philippines after the devastation of Typhoon Haiyan. (See "19-Nov-13 World View -- Philippine typhoon disaster draws clear lines between US and China")
China's initial offer of $100,000 aid was minuscule compared to what was offered by other countries, especially the United States that provided $20 million dollars and an entire carrier task force to aid typhoon victims. An embarrassed China increased its aid donation to $1.6 million, but that amount was still criticized as being smaller than the $2.7 million that furniture maker Ikea is providing in aid to the Philippines.
Now China was forced to back down again. China has one of the largest and most modern hospital ships in the world, the "Peace Ark," but they've refused to allow it to help the Philippine people. But on Wednesday, China announced that the Peace Ark will travel to the Philippines after all. According to a government spokesman:
"We hope its mission will help ease the lack of medical services in the disaster areas in the Philippines, as a token of Chinese people's friendship to the Philippine people."
We hope that he didn't choke on the word "friendship". Xinhua
As we reported yesterday, the Mideast sectarian conflict sharply escalated on Tuesday because of a major double-suicide bombing targeting Iran's embassy in the most super-secure area of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. 25 people were killed, including a senior Iranian diplomat. The self-proclaimed perpetrators were the al-Qaeda linked Abdullah Azzam Brigades, presumably supported by Saudi Arabia, presumably taking revenge for Iran's and Hezbollah's support for the bloody actions of Syria's genocidal monster president, Bashar al-Assad.
But a report by Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong, is quoting its intelligence sources as saying that there's no such group as the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, and that the whole attack was perpetrated by Hezbollah itself, targeting the assets of its puppetmasters in Iran. According to the report, Hezbollah wanted to withdraw all its forces from Syria, having suffered hundreds of casualties in Syria so far. Thus, it continues, Hezbollah staged the terrorist attack to justify keeping its fighters home in Lebanon - to defend against further terrorist attacks. It's possible that the staged terrorist attack was more successful than planned, killing and injuring more people than intended.
This story sounds so fantastical that it's hard to know what to believe, and it comes from Israel-linked Debka, which never hesitates to show Iran and Hezbollah in as negative a light as possible. On the other hand, what are we dealing with is a terrorist group (Hezbollah), for whom slaughtering innocent civilians is an almost daily way of life. If they're willing to blow up an innocent crowd of shoppers just to create terror, why wouldn't be willing to blow up a bunch of people walking by the Iranian embassy? Blowing up innocent people is just a way of life. When you put it that way, the self-inflicted attack is really not so fantastical, after all.
If this story is true, Iran is certain to seek retribution against Hezbollah, probably by forcing Hezbollah to do its bidding and send many more thousands of Hezbollah fighters into Syria, further inflaming the Sunni jihadists. Either way, this massive attack on the Iranian embassy is going to escalate the sectarian fighting in the Mideast. Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Nov-13 World View -- U.S. and Afghanistan agree on post-2014 security pact thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Nov-2013)
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Japan's anti-China diplomacy given boost by Typhoon Haiyan
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Twin suicide bombers attacked the Iranian embassy in a super-secure area of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, killing dozens. The first suicide bomber approached on a motorcycle, and did relatively little damage. As crowds rushed to the scene, a second suicide bomber arrived in a large Sports Utility vehicle, packed with explosive. At least 25 people were killed, and hundreds were injured. One of those killed was an Iranian diplomat.
Iran's foreign ministry called it "an inhuman action," and reflexively said, "The Islamic Republic of Iran takes the Zionists and their mercenaries responsible for this action." But as the Iranians and everyone else know, it's much more likely that the perpetrators are Sunni jihadists who are targeting Shia Iran and Hezbollah for their support of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. In fact, in view of last week's desperate statement by Iran's foreign minister warning of the rise of Sunni jihadists, it's possible that the Iranians were aware that something like this was coming. (See "12-Nov-13 World View -- Iran's statement on Syria shows signs of desperation")
The al-Qaeda linked Abdullah Azzam Brigades have taken credit for the bombing, which appears to be a major new step in the escalation of the sectarian Sunni versus Shia conflict in the Mideast. The trigger that started this growing sectarian conflict is the actions by Syria's Shia/Alawite pathological genocidal monster, Bashar al-Assad, using everything from mortars to chemical weapons to kill innocent Sunni civilians in Syria. But the conflict has been made much worse by the catastrophic actions of Russia and Iran in supplying weapons and fighters to support al-Assad in his mass slaughter. This has drawn Sunni jihadists, sometimes funded by Saudi Arabia, from countries near and far to come to Syria to fight against al-Assad. The war may have been largely restricted to Syria up till now, but Tuesday's bombing is a major step forward, on the road to a major war engulfing the entire Mideast.
At any rate, Tuesday's bombing is blowback from Iran's own actions, and is well-deserved retribution. So what's Iran going to do now? If they strike back against the Saudis, they'll escalate the war; if they don't, they'll show weakness, and invite more bombings. We'll have to see how Iran resolves this conundrum. Daily Star (Beirut) and Fars News (Tehran) and CS Monitor
Since taking office less than a year ago, Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe has visited all ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a first for a Japanese leader. Although Cambodia and Laos have traditionally been close to China, Abe expects the other eight countries to join Japan in a united front against China in the numerous territorial disputes in the region. In particular, China is claiming territory in the South China Sea that has historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, while Japan itself is facing daily military confrontations with China around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
Japan's case has been boosted by China's niggardly aid response to the Typhoon Haiyan. (See "19-Nov-13 World View -- Philippine typhoon disaster draws clear lines between US and China".) According to one Japanese analyst:
"Some ASEAN member countries are very much vulnerable to China’s economic and political influence. [By boosting military cooperation,] we are giving assurance we will stand by those ASEAN member countries. As China’s neighboring countries develop their own capability, China needs to think twice before taking assertive actions."
On the other hand, China's government-run news agency hits back:
"But Abe has not yet held formal talks with leaders from China and South Korea, with whom ties have been stalled by the hawkish Japanese leader's hard-line policy on territorial disputes and his unapologetic attitude toward Japan's 20th-century wartime atrocities in the two countries."
Bloomberg and China Daily
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Nov-13 World View -- Lebanon bombing sharply escalates sectarian Mideast conflict thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Nov-2013)
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Saudi Arabia denies reports of cooperation with Israel over Iran
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China is still receiving international criticism over its stingy aid response to the disaster that occurred on its doorstep, when Typhoon Haiyan, the largest typhoon on record, completely destroyed dozens of Philippines cities, killing thousands. The irony is that China's hospital ship, the "Peace Ark," is one of the newest and biggest hospital ships in the world, and has just returned from a four-month public relations trip, visiting eight countries in Asia and Africa, treating thousands of patients during goodwill stops, and pledging to work with other navies. But all that public relations work has been reversed because when it comes to the Philippines, the Peace Ark stayed home, matching China's paltry aid donations.
On the other hand, the U.S. response has been breathtaking. In addition to $20 million in aid, the USS George Washington nuclear powered aircraft carrier was deployed, along with about 50 ships and aircraft, including 10 C-130 transport planes, 12 V-22 Ospreys and 14 Seahawk helicopters air-dropping supplies.
The contrast between the two responses has been enormous, and the responses send important messages. The message from the Chinese is that the Philippines is an enemy. One Chinese military strategy is "Kill a chicken to scare the monkeys," which means that China would win a short, decisive war with Vietnam, the Philippines or Japan, and then everyone else would do as China demands. The other part of this strategy is that the Americans would "run like rabbits."
The message from the U.S. is that the Americans would not run like rabbits, and that the U.S. would defend its ally, the Philippines. CS Monitor and Reuters
Saudi Arabia and Israel don't have formal diplomatic relations, but even so, for months there have been unconfirmed reports that the Saudis and Israelis were making plans for a military strike to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The reports become more frequent in the last few weeks, as both the Saudis and Israelis have become increasingly furious that the Obama administration has betrayed them on issues surrounding Iran and Syria.
On Sunday, the London Times claimed to have facts to back up the military plans. According to the paper, Saudi Arabia will let Israel use its airspace in a military strike, and will cooperate with Israel over the use of rescue helicopters, tanker plans, and drones.
However, on Monday a Saudi foreign ministry spokesman said that the report was "completely unfounded":
"[The kingdom] has no relations or contacts with Israel of any kind or at any level."
Times of Israel and Al-Jazeera
India's plans to build a fence along the border with Myanmar (Burma) are causing protests among the numerous tribes that live along the border. The border is an artificial line that cuts across houses and villages, dividing several tribes, such as the Singphos, Nagas, Kukis and Mizos. The result is that the tribes refuse to recognize the border, and refuse to allow a fence to be built. The fence is needed because the border is infested with numerous insurgencies that are taking advantage of the ability of tribal members to pass back and forth easily between the two countries. Insurgents cross into Myanmar to receive training in arms, and return to carry out subversive activities. The border has become the main conduit for trafficking of arms and high quality heroine from Myanmar, as well as trafficking of women and children. Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA - India)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Nov-13 World View -- Philippine typhoon disaster draws clear lines between US and China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Nov-2013)
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Does the Koran require a woman to wear a hijab?
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China announced this week a loosening in its 30-year-old one child policy, permitting some couples to have 2 children, rather than having to stop at 1. Over the years, this policy has resulted in many news stories of government officials conducting regular forced pregnancy checks of women, all the way to grabbing up pregnant women, putting them into a clinic, and forcing an abortion and sterilization. The other part of this picture that women, wanting a son as their only child, kill their unborn daughters after getting an ultrasound, or kill their newborn daughters after birth. One trick that many women used is to take fertility drugs, hoping that their one pregnancy leads to twins or triplets. The result of the one-child policy is that there is a ratio of 1.18 males to each female in China, giving rise to significant social problems.
The change to the one-child policy will not help the current crop of young adult males, who are unable to find Chinese wives, many of whom are "buying" Vietnamese wives. Buying Vietnamese wives is in a legal gray zone in China -- against the law, but the law is not enforced. Matchmaking brokers charge $5-15,000 to help a customer find a Vietnamese wife, which covers costs such as a dowry, wedding feast, visas and travel. But this matchmaking service is coming under increased scrutiny, as more young Vietnamese girls are being kidnapped for sale, and more Chinese males are being defrauded. Xinhua and Global Times (Beijing)
The recent suicide bombing in Volgograd by a female suicide bomber has focused attention on women in the North Caucasus, Russia's southern provinces. Russian authorities are increasing pressure on women who wear Islamic dress, including the hijab, which covers the head, and sometimes the entire female body. In December 2012, Russia's president Vladimir Putin categorically stated at a press conference that "in our culture (when I say 'our,' I mean traditional Islam), there are not any hijabs whatsoever," which is truly a bizarre statement. Putin even forced mullahs, muftis and other religious figures to agree with Putin's assertion. Muslims were infuriated when several Muslim girls were barred from school for wearing hijabs. Putin hoped that announcing a return to the use of uniforms in the country’s schools, as it was during the Soviet period, would resolve the issue. However, in an unexpected turn, a well-known figure in the Russian Orthodox Church supported the Muslims, saying that a campaign against the hijab might end up banning Orthodox children from wearing crosses in schools. This disagreement over the hijab is just one more factor separating the Caucasian population from the ethnic Russia population. Jamestown
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The Jamestown article referenced above says that the Koran requires women to wear a hijab, and quotes a verse from the Koran. This was a surprise to me, because it can't possibly be true. Some Muslim countries require the hijab, some don't, but they're all Muslim countries. Based on this, I've always assumed that the Koran did NOT require women to wear a hijab. So the reference in the last article caught my interest.
I looked up the referenced verse, 33:59, and found a web page that gives translations from different Islamic scholars. The results were quite interesting:
In all cases, the translations are telling how to appear as a virtuous, respectable Muslim woman, so she will not be annoyed or molested. But there is a wide range. Muhammad Sarwar says that breast should be covered, which is pretty much the rule in Western countries. But Mohsin Khan tells women to cover their entire bodies, except for the eyes. In some cases, the advice only to when they "go abroad."
So, as in the case of everything else these days, it all depends on your ideology. If you're a strict Muslim conservative, you'll pick the full body hijab translation; if you're more liberal, you'll pick the breasts-only translation, or perhaps something involving a hijab. As in the case of Christianity and the Bible, you can believe many things, and almost always find a verse or two that can be interpreted to support your position. Quran.com
Mexico is reporting 176 confirmed cases of cholera, including one death. Mexico had an outbreak of cholera between 1991 and 2002, which was finally extinguished. The new outbreak has been traced back to the United Nations soldiers from Nepal, where cholera is endemic, who were sent to Haiti to aid people following the huge Haiti earthquake in 2010. Since that time, the disease spread first to the Dominican Republic, then to Cuba, where cholera hadn't been seen in 100 years, and from there to Mexico. It's feared that vacationers to Cuba from Chile, Venezuela, Italy, Germany and Holland are inadvertently carrying the disease back home. Cholera is most often spread through food or through the water supply. It's believed unlikely that the epidemic will spread to the United States, because the water is chlorinated. World Socialist Web Site
CGI Group Inc., the main contractor for the Obamacare web site HealthCare.gov, reported better than expected profits in the last quarter, based on a 53% rise in revenues. CGI, a Canadian software company, said that bookings of U.S. government business were strong, despite the web site problems.
Based on my decades of experience as a senior software engineer, the Obamacare web site should have cost $5-10 million, and should have been working long before now. If you take into account the enormous wastes and screwup that are typical of any government project, then the Obamacare web site should have cost $10-25 million.
Instead, I'm hearing reports, not being denied by anyone, that the web site cost $300-600 million, and that it's a software engineering disaster.
So here are my questions:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Nov-13 World View -- Cholera epidemic spreads from Haiti to Cuba to Mexico thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(18-Nov-2013)
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Pakistan mobilizes army to quell sectarian violence in three cities
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A curfew has been ordered in Rawalpindi, a suburb of Pakistan's capital city Islamabad, after major sectarian clashes on Friday spawned retaliatory violence on Saturday in at least two other cities. Clashes in Rawalpindi on Friday, when a Shia Muslim procession passed by a Sunni mosque. Ten people were killed and dozens injured, forcing the army to intervene and impose a curfew. The clashes appear to have occurred spontaneously and were not triggered by Taliban attacks, as happens in many other cases. However, on Saturday, retaliatory clashes occurred in Rawalpindi and in two cities in southern Pakistan, forcing the army to be called in all of those cases. Daily Times (Pakistan)
Sri Lanka's president Mahinda Rajapaksa rejected the demand by Britain's prime minister David Cameron to conduct an internal war crimes investigation by March, saying, "People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones."
The confrontation occurred in the context of the biannual CHOGM (The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting), being held this year in Sri Lanka. This is the meeting of the leaders of the British Commonwealth of Nations, 53 member nations, mostly former British colonies. The Commonwealth is considered irrelevant by many, but Britain promotes it as a force for world peace and prosperity.
The major controvery about this year's CHOGM was whether it should be held in a country being accused of human rights abuses, stemming from the Sri Lanka civil war that ended in 2009. The leaders of India, Mauritius and Canada are boycotting the event.
Britain's prime minister David Cameron attended CHOGM, but pulled a major publicity stunt. Cameron left the meeting and went to Jaffna, the heart of Tamil territory, to see for himself the conditions under which Tamils continue to live. Cameron said this at a press conference:
"I told President Rajapaksa that there is need for a credible, transparent and independent internal inquiry into the events at the end of the war (against LTTE) by the end of March. If that does not happen I will use our position to move the UN Human Rights Commission and work with the Rights Commissioner for an independent inquiry.
Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa was not moved. He fired back:
"It is his view. This is a democracy. He can say whatever he wants. People living in glass houses must not throw stone at others."
Rajapaksa was apparently referring to inquiries into the war in Iraq and into the "Bloody Sunday" massacre in Ireland.
Sri Lanka has very good relations with China and Pakistan, and very poor relations with India. Sri Lanka is expected to side with China in the approaching Clash of Civilization world war, and the island nation will be an important naval base for China. Australian Broadcasting and BBC
Long-time readers know that I covered the Sri Lanka civil war pretty closely. (See "Sri Lanka appears close to war" from 2006.) The civil war followed the pattern that Generational Dynamics predicts for almost all civil wars.
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World War II was a generational crisis war for Ceylon, and the two ethnic groups, the Sinhalese (who are Buddhist) and Tamils (who are Hindu), lived in peace through the generational Recovery era and into the beginning of the generational Awakening era. But as the post-war generation reached adulthood, tensions grew between the two groups, and became very sharp in 1972, , when Ceylon changed its name to Sri Lanka and Buddhism was given primary place as country's religion.
What always happens is that low-level conflicts start. Periods of conflict alternate with periods of peace, but each period of conflict is worse than the last. In 1976, a separatist rebel group was formed, demanding a separate Tamil state. The group called itself the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and were called the "Tamil Tigers" for short. A non-crisis civil war began in 1983, alternating between peace and conflict. The last peace expired in 2006, when war between the Tamil Tigers and the Sinhalese army became serious. In 2008, the Sri Lanka military commands promised "to defeat the Tamils once and for all" by the end of the year. That declaration signalled that a "regeneracy" had occurred, and a full-scale generational crisis war was in progress.
What always happens during a generational crisis war is that the value of an individual human life goes to zero, and the only thing that matter is the survival of the society and its way of life. This happened to America in World War II, as American soldiers poured onto the beaches of Normandy and were shot down like fish in a barrel, and then entire cities in Germany and Japan, including Dresden and Tokyo, were firebombed and destroyed, while other Japanese cities were destroyed with nuclear weapons.
This is what happens when a generational crisis war reaches a climax. In Sri Lanka, the Tamil Tigers increasingly forced Tamil women and children to sit in front of military targets, so that Sinhalese shells would kill them, which is exactly what the Sinhalese shells did. At that point, nobody cared who died.
In early 2009, it was clear that the war was close to ending. Based on a Generational Dynamics, I predicted that once the Sinhalese army was victorious, the war would be over, just as the war against Germany and Japan was completely over in 1945. As far as I know, every other journalist and analyst in the world predicted that, with the war having gone on for 26 years, it would continue to go on after a Sinhalese army victory. Generational Dynamics was right, and everybody else in the world was wrong. (See "Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war")
So now come the recriminations. The Sinhalese army killed, tortured and jailed Tamil civilians, and the Tamils deserve legal retribution. But the same thing happens as the climax of any generational crisis war approaches and, if you look at the actions of psychopathic genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria, can sometimes happen in non-crisis wars.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Nov-13 World View -- Britain threatens Sri Lanka with war crimes investigation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Nov-2013)
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Executives watching porn are leading targets of hacker attacks
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Venezuela's congress has voted in favor of granting President Nicolás Maduro emergency dictatorial policies. A second vote will occur next week to put the change into effect. Maduro had been one vote short of the number of votes needed, but solved that problem by charging an opposite legislator with corruption, removing her from the legislature, and replacing her with someone from Maduro's Socialist Party.
As we described last month in "26-Sep-13 World View -- Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation", the country is plagued by shortages of everything from milk and cooking oil to toothpaste and toilet paper. Maduro's government has now arrested more than 100 businessmen in a so-called crackdown on corruption and price-gouging. According to Maduro:
"They are barbaric, these capitalist parasites! We have more than 100 of the bourgeoisie behind bars at the moment."
Thanks to massive overspending and vote-buying by Maduro and by his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's inflation rate is over 45%. It's thought that Maduro arranged for the new dictatorial powers because of elections being held in December. AP and Russia Today
In what is being described as a snub to the United States, Albania has rejected a request to allow the destruction of Syria's chemical weapons to take place on Albania's soil. Albania was considered to be a good choice to host the destruction, since the country destroyed tons of its own chemical weapons in 2007 and 2012. Albania's prime minister Edi Rama announced the rejection on Friday, after four days of massive demonstrations by opposition activists in front of the prime minister's residency in Tirana. According to reports from Albania's government, the country had several things to gain by allowing the destruction on its soil:
Albania's refusal has halted further work on the United Nations program to destroy Syria's chemical weapons, when the international agreement specifies that the 1,000 tonnes of weapons must be transported outside Syria by February 5, 2014, and destroyed by June 30, 2014. France and Belgium have been named as possible alternate locations. Albeu (Albania) and BBC
A new survey shows that a leading cause of corporate malware, which can permit a corporation's entire network to be hacked and compromised, comes from senior managers visiting X-rated porn sites with their desktop computers or mobile device. Watching porn on work computers is not rare. Nielsen reported that about 29 percent of working American adults watched porn on work computers in March 2010. Time
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Nov-13 World View -- Albania refuses Syria chemical weapons destruction thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(16-Nov-2013)
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France and Eurozone economies falter, while Greece approaches new bailout crisis
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The first significant international aid since Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines started flowing Thursday with the arrival of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier. Helicopters began ferrying in food and clean water for regions that have seen little help in days. Other supplies included tarpaulin sheets to shelter people from the sun and rains, entire cities and towns have had roofs blown off almost every building. Many people are getting increasingly angry at the Philippine government for its failure to provide adequate aid to starving homeless people. USA Today
China has been forced by international pressure to reverse itself and send much more humanitarian aid than it originally intended to the Philippines. Following the total destruction of many Philippine cities and the deaths of thousands of people from Typhoon Haiyan, the worst typhoon on record, the United Arab Emirates, Japan and Australia have each offered $10 million in humanitarian aid, and South Korea has pledged $5 million, while the United States has given $20 million and its military, leading a massive relief effort. But China pledged only $100,000 in aid, in an obvious snub to the Philippines.
China is claiming as sovereign territory the entire South China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to other countries, including the Philippines. China has already forced the Philippines to cede the Scarborough Shoal to China, under threat of military force. So China's obvious snub in humanitarian aid has been heavily criticized internationally, and even its own Global Times said editorially on Wednesday:
"If it snubs Manila this time, China will suffer great losses. China, as a responsible power, should participate in relief operations to assist a disaster-stricken neighboring country."
On Thursday, China announced:
"Several days ago we also decided to send 10 million RMB ($1.64 million) worth of humanitarian aid, including tents and blankets, to the Philippine people in the disaster zone. These include thousands of tents and hundreds of thousands of blankets. ...The Chinese are a nation who have a lot of sympathy, a people who love peace, who are happy to do good deeds. I believe that the vast majority of the Chinese people are understanding and sympathetic toward the situation of the Philippine people."
Actually, the Chinese people have a great deal of highly nationalistic hatred of the Philippines, as shown by the initial snub. The Diplomat and LA Times
France's economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter (July, August, September), when it had been expected to grow slightly. The entire 17-country eurozone grew by a much slower than expected 0.1%, after growing 0.3% in the previous quarter.
Greece and eurozone officials are making little progress in coming up with 2 billion euros of additional austerity measures and asset sales, as previously committed to the "Troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- in exchange for the previous 240 billion euro bailouts. Greece is offering up 1.2 billion euros in the form of "clamping down on loopholes that allow companies to evade social security contributions, reducing the budgets of public organizations, merging state bodies and strictly implementing the across-the-board wage structure in the public sector." Greek officials are refusing the Troika request to sell off the government-owned weapons manufacturer Hellenic Defense Systems. An agreement has to be reached in time for Greece to receive a new bailout loan to pay off about 1.85 billion euros of bonds falling due on January 11. Reuters and Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Nov-13 World View -- China snubs Philippines on humanitarian aid, then backs down thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Nov-2013)
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Malta sells EU citizenship for 650,000 euros
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The gun-control concept took another hit on Friday when a Texas gun manufacturer, Solid Concepts, tested the first all metal gun made from 3D printing. The pistol is a version of an M1911, a handgun designed by John Browning and first used widely in the latter stages of combat stemming from the Philippine-American War.
When I last wrote about gun control and 3D printing I described a 3D printed plastic gun tested by Cody Wilson, an activist, which worked adequately but fell apart after several dozen shots. Now, a few months later, 3D printing of guns has already advanced substantially. Within a couple of years, I would expect it to be possible for anyone to be able to purchase a 3D printer for a few thousand dollars, and make good quality guns in his cellar or garage. CNN
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to "reconsider" preliminary work toward building 24,000 settlement housing units in the West Bank, which much of the international community considers to be occupied Palestinian territory. The decision was a slapdown of his hardline nationalist housing minister Uri Ariel, who had authorized the preparatory work. Netanyahu tied his decision in with the ongoing negotiations between the West and Iran:
"In recent months, we built thousands of homes in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank], and in the coming months we plan to build thousands more. It was never easy, but we did it responsibly despite international pressure. [But] there’s no point in creating friction with the international community over theoretical potential and plans that aren’t applicable. ...We need to fight for real, true, practical things and not things that create unnecessary tension with the international community that can hurt our fight against Iran."
Netanyahu's decision comes as Palestinian peace negotiators have reportedly submitted their resignations, refusing to take any further part in the so-called "peace process" with Israel. However, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has not yet accepted their resignations, and so the farcical peace negotiations may yet continue. Jerusalem Post and Deutsche-Welle and BBC
You can now buy citizenship in Malta for 650,000 euros, thanks to a new plan approved by the country's parliament on Tuesday. Once you're a citizen of Malta, you'll be an EU citizen, and you can travel freely without visa controls. Malta is receiving a great deal of criticism for this plan, but it turns out that Greece, Spain and Hungary all offer residence permits in exchange for steep fees, allowing the same freedom of movement. Malta has merely gone one step further, by offering citizenship. Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Nov-13 World View -- Netanyahu cancels Israeli settlement plan to save 'peace process' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(14-Nov-2013)
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Zero Obamacare enrollments in Massachusetts
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Lebanon has launched a massive public health initiative in order to head off a threatened polio epidemic. The threat comes from the flood of refugees that are coming from Syria, which is experiencing its first major outbreak of polio in 14 years, because of the war. There are more than 800,000 Syrian refugees spread across Lebanon in nearly 1,600 locations, and an attempt will be made to go "house by house, tent by tent" across Lebanon to vaccinate all children under 5 against polio. In Syria, about 10 children are already paralyzed. Reuters
An investigation by Human Rights Watch finds that the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been using incendiary weapons to torture and kill Syrian civilians. There has been limited international condemnation because al-Assad has also been using chemical weapons to kill civilians.
"Incendiary weapons cause excruciating pain, they can burn to the bone," explains Docherty. "Some models can re-ignite after being treated when exposed to oxygen. They also cause ong-term effects such as disfigurement and ostracization. According to an HRW official:
"There should not be less concern about chemical weapons, but there should be more concern about incendiary weapons. They're all problematic. We're not asking for a comparative approach but we're saying there should definitely be more attention paid to the use of incendiary weapons. ...They are being used mostly in air strikes by the Syrian government. We haven't heard any confirmations or denials by the Syrian government."
The incendiary weapons are all Russian made from the Soviet era. Human Rights Watch and Voice Of Russia
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I had thought that if any state was going to do well under Obamacare, it would be Massachusetts (where I live), for several reasons. First, Massachusetts has had several years of experience with "Romneycare," which supposedly served as a model for Obamacare. Second, Massachusetts has had a "Health Connector" web site for years, so they know how to provide health plans online.
Well, it turns out that the web site had to be rewritten, since the old web site was not Obamacare-compliant. Anyone who had gotten a plan from the old web site would have to re-apply on the new web site, and the new web site is as much a mess as the Obamacare web sites in other states.
There are 150,000 Massachusetts residents who are facing cancellation of their health insurance. As of this week, only 549 applicants have selected plans without confirming them, and ZERO people have confirmed enrollment in a new plan.
As I've written many times, the worst economic policy in my lifetime up to a few years ago was President Nixon's wage-price controls, which were an absolute disaster for the economy. (See "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse")
Every day, the news about Obamacare gets worse. This is a much worse disaster for the U.S. economy than Nixon's wage-price controls. This is spiraling into a historic catastrophe, and what's incredibly depressing is that, at this point, there's absolutely nothing that can be done to stop the damage. This is a nightmare. Boston Herald
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Nov-13 World View -- Human Rights Watch says Syria is using Russian-made incendiary weapons thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Nov-2013)
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U.S. Marines land in Philippines after massive Typhoon Haiyan destruction
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A statement by Iran's foreign minister Mohamed Javad Zarif to a BBC interviewer is so completely full of crap that it sounds like desperation. Zarif expressed outrage at terrorism and extremism by Sunni jihadists, and totally ignored 30 years of Iranian Shia terrorism through the Revolutionary Guard Corp, and through direct funding of Hezbollah and other violent terrorist groups. Sunni jihadists now targeting Hezbollah, Iran's allies in Syria, and Iran itself. Call it Kismet, call it Karma, or call it comeuppance, Iran is now facing well-deserved retribution.
Zarif began the interview by parroting the usual line - there is no military solution, there has to be a political solution, blah blah blah - not mentioning that Iran is fully involved militarily in Syria. Then, the BBC interviewer, Jeremy Bowen, asked about the role of jihadists in Syria (my transcription):
"That is a threat to all of us. The role of jihadists, the role of extremists, these are a band of mobile people, most of them non-Syrian, who are moving from Chechnya to Afghanistan to Yemen, the [next] day to Iraq to Syria, and wreaking havoc in all these countries. It's in the interest of everybody to understand that extremists will not be able to be contained in one country. If they give rise to extremism, this is a fire that will engulf them and will burn them. We've got to understand that extremism has no boundaries. Terrorism has no boundaries. We need to collectively deal with them thru serious measures to prevent them from wreaking havoc."
This is exactly the point that I've been making for months, except that I place the blame squarely on Iran and Russia. Iran and Russia have been supplying fighters and weapons to Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad, who is trying to exterminate all the Sunnis in Syria. So of course the Sunni jihadists from countries near and far are going to flock to Syria to fight al-Assad. Are the Iranian and Russian leaders so incredibly stupid that they didn't think that would happen? Apparently so. But that's typical of the utter stupidity of many politicians in many countries.
As I've said in the past, I believe that a tipping point has already been reached in Syria, and that there's no way to stop the rising sectarian conflict in the Mideast. With hundreds of thousands of deaths, and many millions of refugees, the countries around Syria are now so destabilized that there's no way to recover without a full-scale war.
At this point, Bowen said that the war in Syria has increased Sunni/Shia tensions. He asked Zarif how serious this sectarian tension is for the Mideast and the world:
"I think it's probably the most serious security threat not only to the region, but to the world at large. And I think all of us, and Iran is committed to this and when I was in Turkey with our Turkish friends, regardless of our differences over Syria, we need to work together on this sectarian issue.When I was in Iraq we agreed with the Iraqi friends that we need to work together, that this was the single most important problem that we all - we ALL face. And I believe we can work with everybody in the region, with Saudi Arabia, with the countries in the Persian Gulf, with other countries in the region, with others, in order to contain this threat, because this -- some people have fanned the animosity for short-sighted political interests."
At this point, Bowen interrupted and said, "Saudis - you mean the Saudis." Zarif was obviously talking about Iran's hated enemy, the Saudis, but refused to say so.
The more that Zarif spoke, the more his words were full of crap. Iran not only has NOT been working to "contain this threat," but in fact Iran has been the principal cause, along with Russia, of the sectarian threat.
Iran's economy is on the ropes because of the international sanctions, while Saudi Arabia has an almost unlimited amount of money to fund anti-Assad fighters in Syria. (See "11-Nov-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia's plans for Syria intervention face many obstacles")
So now Zarif is whining that the Saudis have "fanned the animosity for short-sighted political interests." What crap, given that that's what Iran has been doing for years.
"I'm talking about certain countries that have called various names about Shia Crescent, and all of that -- this business of fear-mongering has been a prevalent business. I think we need to come to understand that sectarian divide in the Islamic world is a threat to all of us. Nobody can benefit from it. Nobody should try to fan the flames of sectarian violence. I think we should all rein this divide, and rein it in, bring it to a close, try to avoid a conflict that would be detrimental to everybody's security."
By this time, Zarif sounded completely desperate. Iran has been fanning the flames of sectarian violence in Syria since the war started 2 1/2 years ago, and now it's biting them on the ass. The wealthy Saudis are gearing up for a fight, the bankrupt Iranians can't compete, and Sunni jihadists are striking within Iran itself.
For 30 years, Iran has been funding and fomenting terror throughout the Mideast, and through Hezbollah, around the world. Iran's desperation is well deserved. Even worse, the survival of the regime is at stake, with Iran in a generational Awakening era, and the younger generations getting very impatient with old hardline geezers running the country.
The question is how much of a change in policy can be expected from this desperation. The nuclear talks this past weekend collapsed, but there also, Iran seemed almost desperate to reach an agreement that would get the sanctions eased.
There's a final word to be said about Hezbollah. The sectarian conflict really spiked up last April when Hezbollah announced that it would be invading Syria to fight on the side of al-Assad. Reports indicated that Hezbollah leadership didn't want to intervene, but was forced to by their masters, the Iranians. (See "27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast")
Analysts have noticed that, without any particular announcement, Hezbollah withdrew from Syria a couple of months ago. This reflects a change in policy of Hezbollah, but more so of Iran. That could be the first sign that Iran is finally realizing the disaster that it has caused, working with Russia. BBC
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U.S. Marines landed Monday to bring food, water, generators, blankets, mosquito nets, soap, underwear, and other critical supplies to the survivors of Friday's deadly Typhoon Yolanda (called Haiyan elsewhere in Asia), possibly the most powerful typhoon on record. The nation is used to typhoons, having had 20 or so already this year, but no one was prepared for Haiyan, with 145 mile per hour winds, and storm surges as high as 20 feet. Haiyan killed over 10,000 people, and completely destroyed cities in its path. Almost 9.7 million people were affected. A new typhoon, named Zoraida, will make landfall on Tuesday, with top winds of 34 miles per hour, but with plenty of new rain to add to the misery. The U.S. is providing $20 million in aid to the Philippines, and the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, currently in Hong Kong, is making final preparations to deploy to the Philippines, and will arrive Wednesday or Thursday. President Benigno Aquino III has declared a "state of calamity." Fox News and Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Nov-13 World View -- Iran's statement on Syria shows signs of desperation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Nov-2013)
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Special negotiating tactics from Israel's chief negotiator, Tzipi Livni
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Two people were killed on Saturday in clashes between police and African, mostly Ethiopian, migrant workers, in Riyadh, the capital city of Saudi Arabia. Police arrested 561 people, after a week in which thousands have been arrested. The clash follows a crackdown, begun last Monday, to expel hundreds of thousands of migrant workers who don't have valid work visas. Many entered the country illegally, often seeking a job as domestic work, others have expired work visas, and others were smuggled across the border. The reason given for the crackdown is to make available more jobs for Saudis. The crackdown will close numerous small businesses, such as laundries, barbershops, eateries and bankers, and remittances back to home countries will fall about 20%. [What's not clear to me is why the closing of all these businesses won't have a recessionary effect on the economy.] Gulf News and Arab News
Following Saudi Arabia's nasty split with the United States -- following President Obama's public flip-flop on Syria, and the administration's new rapprochement with Saudi's arch-enemy Iran -- the Saudis are struggling to find a way to use their almost unlimited funds to do something to end the intolerable genocidal slaughter of innocent civilian Sunni Arabs by Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad, supported by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
The plan is for the Saudis to create and fund an Army of Muhammad, uniting the Sunni rebel groups. A year ago, this army would have had 7,000-10,000 soldiers, including 6,300 army defectors who had taken refuge in Jordan and Turkey. But with the collapse of any hope of support from the United States, the plans for the size of the rebel army has increased to 50,000, at a cost of "several billion dollars," growing to 250,000 by March, 2016. And while the Army of Muhammad would just have had to fight al-Assad's army a year ago, today it would be fighting against two enemies -- al-Assad's army and al-Qaeda linked jihadists.
The Saudis are planning for cooperation from the Pakistanis, with whom they've shared defense ties for years. The Saudis would like Pakistani help in training its Army of Muhammad, as well as a few thousand troops.
However, Pakistan's military is dealing with its own problems from the Taliban and jihadist violence, and is not anxious to get involved in a huge effort in Syria. Furthermore, the Saudi plan would require the cooperation of Jordan, and they're also put off by the size of the Saudi plan, since there would be a large Syrian rebel army on Jordan's soil.
The biggest problem of all is getting the Saudi rebel groups to cooperate with one another. According to one analyst:
"The biggest problem facing the Saudis now is the same one facing the U.S., France, and anyone else interested in helping the rebels: the fragmentation of the rebels into groups fighting each other for local and regional dominance rather than cooperating to overthrow Assad. Could the Saudis force [the rebel groups] to cooperate? I have my doubts."
Foreign Policy and ISN Security Watch (Zurich)
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A report last week in the Lebanon newspaper Al Diyyar says that Israel's chief negotiator, Tzipi Livni, has admitted having sex with Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat and PLO official Yasser Abed Rabbo. The story quotes a Rabbi as saying, "It was ok for her to sleep and have sex with strangers, as long as it benefits Israel." According to the Arab press, Livni has previously admitted that she doesn't mind killing or having sex with someone in exchange for information that could benefit Israel. Al-Bawaba (Jordan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Nov-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia's plans for Syria intervention face many obstacles thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Nov-2013)
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The Top Ten Most Popular Conspiracy Theories
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Using phrases like "con game" and "fool's deal," France's foreign minister Laurent Fabius demanded additional concessions from Iran in return for an agreement to reduce Western sanctions. Fabius cited differences over Iran's Arak nuclear reactor southeast of Tehran, which could produce enough plutonium for several nuclear weapons a year once it goes online. Iran says it expects Arak to be completed and go online sometime next year, though the plutonium would not be weapons grade. Fabius is demanding that work on Arak be suspended for the time being, which Iran refuses to do. He also called for a reduction in the purity of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The talks collapsed, but will reconvene on November 20. France 24 and VOA
Some people believe that Martians landed at Roswell, or that 9/11 was the work of the government. Here's a list of not just ten, but the top 13 conspiracy theories:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Nov-13 World View -- Iran nuclear talks collapse after France complains of 'con game' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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Foreign ministers rush to Geneva to complete Iran nuclear deal
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The recent successful terrorist attack by ethnic Uighurs in the heart of Beijing's most securely guarded and well-protected offices ( "30-Oct-13 World View -- China scrambles to suppress Tiananmen Square terror attack reports") illuminates the increasing discontent of the ethnic Uighur population in Xinjiang province in northwest China.
To provide better and more thorough control over the population, and to try to prevent everything from protests to terror attacks, China's government has installed as many as 130 million security cameras around the country, with 800,000 in Beijing alone. Facial recognition software is being installed, so that the movements of any citizen can be tracked automatically by computer systems. China is calling this the "Skynet" program, where Skynet is the name of the computer system in Arnold Schwarzenegger's Terminator movies that became self-aware and decided to protect itself by killing all the humans.
However, in Xinjiang province itself, tens of thousands of security cameras, two million internet monitors and large internal paramilitary forces have not only not pacified the Uighur population, but have fueled protests, and violence appears to be worsening significantly. Uighur insurgents cannot obtain guns domestically, but Xinjiang lies next door to Central Asian states where guns are plentiful. The real danger for China is that Uighur terrorists will target China's energy infrastructure, bombing Xinjiang's rail network and a growing number of oil and gas pipelines that are vital to supplying energy to the rest of China.
The Uighurs are not the only rebellious group in China. China has tens of thousands of "mass protests" every year, and the Chinese Communist Party's great fear is that these individual protests will coalesce into a major regional protest. I've been writing for several years that China is overdue for a new national civil war. (See "China approaches Civil War" from 2005.) China's history is full of massive civil war rebellions, such as the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805) and the Taiping Rebellion (1852-1869), killing millions or tens of millions of people. These occur at regular intervals, with each new one occurring at about the time that the survivors of the preceding one die off. The last of these rebellions was Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49), and now it's time for the next one. The Diplomat
Both the United States and Israel will no longer be permitted to vote in the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), although they both will remain non-voting members. The U.S. stopped paying dues to UNESCO in 2011, when the state of Palestine was made a member of UNESCO, in accordance with U.S. law, and Israel followed suit. UNESCO cancels the ability to vote for any country that hasn't paid its dues in two years. UNESCO supports girls' and women's education, and the protection and preservation of cultural heritage sites. U.S. State Dept. and Global Post
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joined foreign ministers from Russia, Britain, China, EU, France and Germany rushed to Geneva on Friday, leading journalists to conclude that a deal with Iran had been reached, and that all was needed was the signatures. That turned out not be true, but officials are saying that a deal is close, and should be reached this weekend.
The details of the proposed agreement are not known, but the general outline is as follows:
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was stinging in his criticism of the proposed deal:
"The deal that is being discussed in Geneva right now is a bad deal, it's a very bad deal. Iran gets everything that it wanted at this stage and it pays nothing."
President Barack Obama called Netanyahu to reassure him, and said in an interview:
"We don't have to trust them. What we have to do is to make sure that there is a good deal in place from the perspective of us verifying what they're doing. And that they're actually moving in the right direction."
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said:
"We’ve got to be creative, we’ve got to be innovative and deal with situations as - on the basis of realities, not on the basis of illusions. I believe, at the end of the day, everybody will be happy with a deal that can be achieved ...Iran demands respect and equal footing [that is] only done when you are prepared to accommodate the other side without trying to impose your views."
It is not clear whether the U.S. Senate will approve any deal that's signed. Also, it's not clear whether Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) will go along with any deal. VOA and Tehran Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Nov-13 World View -- China implements 'Skynet' surveillance program to control protests thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(9-Nov-2013)
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European Central Bank cuts rates to fight deflationary spiral
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Pakistan's citizens are expressing dismay that Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - the Pakistan Taliban) on Thursday selected Mullah Fazlullah as their new leader.
Fazlullah has gotten the name "Butcher of Swat" because he led the Taliban in 2007-2009 to create rivers of blood with terrorist acts and a reign of terror in the Swat Valley of northwestern Pakistan, which used to be a beautiful tourist and ski resort. Finally, in 2009, Pakistan's army was able to drive Fazlullah and his terrorists into the tribal areas, and then across the border into Afghanistan.
Fazlullah led a campaign to end a United Nations program to vaccinate children against polio, by murdering doctors and nurses who administered the vaccines. The result is that polio is endemic in Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan and Nigeria.
Fazlullah earned international notoriety for ordering the November 2012 shooting of Malala Yousafzai, a teenage girl from Swat who had campaigned against the TTP's bombing of schools. She narrowly survived after being airlifted to the United Kingdom for specialist medical treatment. She has since been feted across the world for her bravery, narrowly missing out on the Nobel Peace Prize. McClatchy and BBC
TTP's previous leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed by an American drone strike, as we reported last week. The drone strike triggered an angry reaction from some Pakistani politicians, who claimed that Mehsud was about to enter into peace talks with the government.
Imran Khan, the former cricket superstar turned anti-American politician, said one Wednesday that America launched the drone strike on purpose to prevent peace in Pakistan:
"Absolutely deliberate - this was a deliberate targeting of the peace process. The US clearly knew what was going on and everyone in Pakistan knew what was going on.We'd been waiting for two months for this peace process to start and then finally when everyone had come to a consensus for peace, they destroyed the peace process.
The people of Pakistan want peace so we will do whatever is in our hands - which is to block the supply to put pressure on the US to stop this madness, because all it's doing is fanning fanaticism."
The last sentence is a threat by Khan to close the Nato supply lines from the port of Karachi through Pakistan and across the Khyber Pass into Afghanistan. The government opposes this plan, but Khan threatened to ask his supporters to block the supply routes unless the U.S. ends the drone strikes permanently.
The selection of Fazlullah as the new TTP leader confuses the picture substantially. For one thing, Fazlullah has always rejected any talk of peace plans, and he immediately repeated that rejection on Thursday:
"Holding of peace talks is not even an issue to discuss – this government has no authority, it is not a sovereign government, it is a slave, a slave of America. Holding peace talks is a waste of time."
However, other changes may be in the works. The choice of Fazlullah was a surprise to a number of analysts because they had expected the the new TTP leader to be another "Mehsud" -- that is, another member of the Mehsud clan which has led the TTP in the past. The choice of Fazlullah, who lives in Afghanistan and who is more bloody and hardline than previous TTP leaders, may signal that the entire TTP organization is becoming even more bloody and hardline than in the past. Some analysts have suggested that the selection of someone other than a Mehsud indicates that the TTP is splintering into groups that are more moderate and more violent. BBC and AFP
For years, Generational Dynamics has been predicting a deflationary spiral (as opposed to inflation or hyperinflation predicted by so-called experts). The Fed has been fighting off deflation by means of zero interest rates and $85 billion per month of "printed money" in the form of quantitative easing.
Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), has been firm in denying that the ECB would follow the Fed's example, saying that deflation was not a danger in the eurozone. So the financial community was shocked on Thursday morning when Draghi announced a reduction in interest rates to 0.25% from 0.50% because of a fear of inflation. According to one analyst:
"The ECB had to do something. The rise of the euro was becoming deflationary and threatening to choke off growth. It is very rare for a central bank to change its policy so dramatically from one month to the next so something profound must have happened."
The "something profound" that happened was that the inflation rate in the eurozone plummeted to 0.7% in October, far below the ECB's target of 2%. And the fall in the inflation rate has been so rapid for the last six months, that Draghi feared that the euro was in a full-fledged deflationary spiral.
Mainstream economists have predicted that the global financial crisis has ended, but Generational Dynamics predicts that it's far from over. Generational Dynamics predicts a global financial panic and financial crisis, accompanied by a worldwide deflationary spiral. Telegraph (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Nov-13 World View -- 'Butcher of Swat' Fazlullah named as new chief of Pakistan's Taliban thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(8-Nov-2013)
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Pakistan will supply nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia
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In a desperate attempt to salvage the latest collapsing Mideast "peace process," U.S. Secretary of State met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and said:
"Let me emphasize at this point the position of the United States of America on the settlements is that we consider now, and have always considered, the settlements to be illegitimate.As in any negotiation there will be moments of up and moments of down, and it goes back and forth. But I can tell you that President Obama and I are determined, and neither of us will stop in our efforts to pursue the possibility (of peace)."
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas was quoted as saying:
"The Palestinians are committed to negotiations that would lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital."
Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia has for years invested a great deal of money in Pakistan nuclear weapons, and that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting, ready for delivery. Technology for the weapons comes from China. Saudi officials have been saying for years that they would not tolerate Iran having a nuclear capability unless the Saudis also had one.
The Saudis could take delivery of the nuclear weapons in either of two different ways. First, Pakistan could just deliver nuclear weapons for Saudi Arabia to use, though that would be considered an extremely provocative action in international eyes.
The second way would be for Pakistan to send its own troops to maintain the nuclear weapons in Saudi Arabia, and maintain control over them. This is similar to the way that the United States stations nuclear weapons in some countries, keeping them under control of U.S. armed forces.
As I've been saying for years, the coming Clash of Civilizations world war will pit the United States, India, Iran and others against China, Pakistan, the Sunni Muslim countries, and others. When I first made that prediction in 2005, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, it seemed completely likely to be unfulfilled, but the trend lines in the past couple of years indicate that the prediction will be fulfilled. BBC
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Families of 9/11 victims are expressing outrage that two 19-year-old college girls at University of Chester in Britain won a costume contest by wearing two of the most grotesque costumes of all time: matching costumes labeled "North Tower" and "South Tower," with head pieces that represented smoke billowing from the tops of the doomed skyscrapers and individuals leaping to their deaths. They topped it all off with American flags. Rosie's nightclub in Chester gave them the "best dressed" award and a cash prize. NY Daily News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Nov-13 World View -- John Kerry condemns Israeli settlements thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(7-Nov-2013)
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U.S. intelligence suggests that Syria is hiding chemical weapons
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Plans for an international "peace conference" on the war in Syria collapsed on Tuesday. The peace conference was originally the idea of the Obama administration and the Russians who, in May, proposed the conference for June. With one delay after another, it was hoped that the peace conference would be held in November. But with Tuesday's announcement, the conference will be postponed to next year.
When making the announcement, U.N./Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said:
And so we have Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov saying, "There's no military solution to this war; we must find a diplomatic solution." Meanwhile, Russia is pouring heavy weapons into Syria, for al-Assad's army to use in mutilating and massacring innocent civilians.
And we have al-Assad, who has been starving and bombing innocent civilians as massively as possible, using Russian weapons, because he wants to gain as much military advantage as possible for leverage during any peace conference. His advisor says that al-Assad should not step down, because once peace is at hand, then the Syrian people (the ones whom al-Assad hasn't yet had a chance to kill) will decide whether he should step down. According to his advisor: "Whatever the Syrians agree to is fine but there should be no foreign or regional interference in the will of the Syrian people."
And we have U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who says "There's no military solution to this war; we must find a diplomatic solution." Kerry has been sucking up to the Russians, after a series of flip-flops by President Obama, indirectly supporting al-Assad's genocidal massacre of his own people. Beyond that, there's no coherent strategy that I can discern to what the Obama administration is doing in foreign policy, and Kerry just travels from place to place, saying one dumb thing after another.
Thanks to the psychopathic behavior by al-Assad, fully and enthusiastically supported by the Russians, indirectly supported by the Obama administration, Syria has become a magnet for al-Qaeda linked jihadists from Pakistan, Algeria, Dagestan, and other regions. The result is Syria has two different opposition forces -- the original Syrian "rebels," and the jihadists.
So what would be the outcome of a peace conference if it did occur? Would the al-Qaeda linked jihadists stop fighting? Would al-Assad stop fighting?
Let's remember how this all started. 2 1/2 years ago, there were peaceful demonstrations by people asking for greater political freedom. There were no jihadists, and the demonstrators had no weapons. Al-Assad responding by slaughtering the innocent civilian protesters with guns and tanks and missiles.
If there were a peace conference, and everyone stopped shooting, but the Syria people started peacefully demonstrating again, would al-Assad not slaughter them this time?
So we have Lavrov, Kerry and others saying, "There's no military solution to this war; we must find a diplomatic solution." They repeated this over and over, like Howdy Doody singing "It's Howdy Doody time! It's Howdy Doody time!" over and over and over.
And so we have the United States of America, the greatest nation in the history of the world, the world's policemen since World War II, under the Barack Obama administration subordinating itself to and conspiring with the Russians to allow the psychopathic al-Assad to commit genocide. That's what it's come to. Reuters and Bloomberg and BBC
Secretary of State John Kerry has been repeatedly congratulated Russia on having a positive, cooperative approach to Syria, and Kerry has repeaedly said he's "very pleased" with Syria's positive, cooperative approach to the chemical weapons inspectors. I'm sure that Kerry's reassuring remarks have left the world anxiety-free over al-Assad's weapons of mass destruction. After all, al-Assad has repeatedly lied about his genocidal behavior, and is still lying about having used chemical weapons on innocent civilians, even though United Nations inspectors presented evidence that proves that al-Assad used those weapons. But Kerry's remarks removed all concerns.
So now U.S. intelligence is indicated that the al-Assad regime did not fully declare all its chemical weapons after all, and that it wants to keep some chemical weapons, and also wants to keep factories where chemical weapons could be manufactured.
Wow! What a surprise! Who could have seen this coming after all those reassuring statements by Kerry? CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Nov-13 World View -- Plans for Syria 'peace conference' in Geneva collapse thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Nov-2013)
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Volgograd suicide bombing heightens xenophobic tensions in Russia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The October 21 Volgograd suicide bombing by a female suicide bomber Naida Asiyalova, that we reported last week, has heightened tensions between mostly Orthodox Christian ethnic Russians and the mostly Muslim residents of the North Caucasus, Russia's southern provinces. Russia is continuing to turn into two separate nations, one of ethnic Russians, one of Caucasians.
A few days after the Volgograd bombing, ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a close associate of president Vladimir Putin and the leader of Russia's nationalist LDPR party, said on a television talk show debate that the whole Caucasus region should be fenced off with barbed wire, and that enforced birth control should be enforced on the entire population of the Caucasus. Despite the characterization of his remarks as "fascist," viewers voted for Zhirinovsky over his opponent by a ratio of 3.5 to 1.
Zhirinovsky didn't back off. On October 31, he expressed concern that ethnic Russians were living in a "humiliated" state while the Caucasus provinces have excessive autonomy. He said that in order to strengthen the country, the ethnic republics within Russia should be disbanded and non-Russian languages outlawed.
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At other times, Zhirinovsky's remarks might simply be ignored, but in the current inflamed climate they're sharply dividing public opinion. This presents the Kremlin with a dilemma. Some officials would like to bring criminal charges against Zhirinovsky for inciting hatred. If Moscow reprimands Zhirinovsky, thereby supporting the North Caucasians, it will face a backlash from ethnic Russians. If Moscow does not react to Zhirinovsky’s tirade, it will disappoint the North Caucasians and undermine the positions of the governors in the region.
The Volgograd suicide bombing was not an isolated incident. Older Caucasians had organized communities to preserve Soviet-era policies. But in the last 15 years, younger generations of Muslims have been increasingly supporting Salafist interpretations of Islam, and now violence in the Caucasus is almost a daily occurrence. Among Russian officials, the biggest concern is that there will be a terrorist bombing during the Sochi Winter Olympics to take place in February, and for that reason, Russia's security forces are going to extraordinary lengths to lock down the Caucasus. Russia Today and Jamestown and EurasiaNet
Tens of thousands of demonstrators chanted "Death to America!" outside the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Monday, as they celebrated the 34th anniversary of Iran's takeover of the embassy in 1979. This was the beginning of the hostage crisis, an event still imprinted on many American minds, as 52 Americans were held for 444 days. At the time, evening network newscasts would begin with words similar to, "This is day number 298 that Americans are being held hostage in Iran." Thanks to Iran's actions in holding dozens of Americans hostage for over a year, there has been a deep rift between Iran and America since then.
Today, Iranians chanting "Death to America!" is as fashionable and as much de rigeur as someone from Boston yelling, "Go Red Sox!" November 4 is celebrated each year as "the National Day of Confrontation with Arrogance." But this year the crowds were the largest in years, because of the critical generational battle being fought in Tehran, between the older generations of survivors of the Great Islamic Revolution, and the younger generations growing up afterwards. (See "2-Nov-13 World View -- Growing power struggle in Iran may make Rafsanjani the Supreme Leader")
Today's crowds of hardliners may have been expressing opposition to America, but they were actually expressing opposition to the plans of the new president Hassan Rouhani to conduct nuclear negotiations with the West. Al Jazeera
Zehava Galon, the head of Israel's far-left Meretz party, is saying that U.S. officials would present an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan in January, 2014, and impose the plan on both sides by force. Under the imposed plan, Israel's boundaries would move back to the 1949 Armistice lines. There's no word on what form the force would take.
I really don't know what to make of this because it's so bizarre. Israel National News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Nov-13 World View -- Iranians commemorate 34th anniversary of storming U.S. Embassy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Nov-2013)
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Venezuela's Maduro accuses Twitter of attacking his government
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has "decided to build a security fence in the Jordan valley," separating the West Bank from Jordan. Construction will begin on completion of the fence on the border with Egypt's Sinai. The revelation is infuriating Palestinians, who are participating in a "peace process" with Israel that's considered a joke in the Mideast. According to the report, Netanyahu is concerned about the flood of Syrian refugees pouring into Jordan - and the danger that they will continue traveling into Israel in large numbers. AFP and Al Bawaba / Ma'an
Syria's civil war has driven some two million people into neighboring countries as refugees, and some 600,000 of these refugees have poured into Jordan. Jordan's King Abdullah II said on Sunday that Jordan's resources are being depleted by the huge number of refugees:
"Jordan currently hosts around 600,000 Syrian refugees - an issue that depletes our already limited resources and puts enormous pressure on our infrastructure.If the international community does not move quickly to help us shoulder the burdens of the Syrian crisis... Jordan is able to take measures to protect the interests of our people and country."
Abdullah did not elaborate on what "measures" will be taken to protect Jordan from the refugees. AFP
Bulgaria's government was caught by surprise in August when more than 1,000 asylum seekers crossed the border from Turkey in just a few weeks. In September there were 2,000 more, and by mid-October another 1,500. Almost all of them were refugees from Syria, and are now living in appalling conditions in refugee camps where no food is available. Bulgaria's resources are being overwhelmed by the flood of Syrian refugees, many of whom have been going to Bulgaria because Greece has erected a fence along its border with Turkey. This week, Bulgaria announced a decision to build a 20-mile security fence along the most vulnerable sections of the border with Turkey. Global Post
Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has accused Twitter of attacking his account and those of several cabinet officials as part of a right-wing plot to destabilize his government. Maduro's Twitter account has 1.4 million followers, but the government says that nearly 6,600 followers disappeared from Maduro's account in 10 minutes:
"We've uncovered a massive attack by the Twitter company and the international right against the accounts of Bolivarian patriots and Venezuelan Chavistas, coming from various parts of the world."
Earlier this year, when Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chávez was dying of cancer, he accused the United States of giving him cancer by poisoning him. AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Nov-13 World View -- Syria's refugees overwhelm the Mideast thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Nov-2013)
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Pakistan blames U.S. drone strike for the 'murder of peace'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Pakistan is calling the U.S. drone strike that killed Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud a "murder of peace," because it's an attack on the peace process that Pakistan has been pursuing with the terrorist group.
The U.S. has put a $5 million price tag on Mehsud's head because he led of some of the most damaging strikes against U.S. interests by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP - the Pakistani Taliban). The worst incident was a suicide attack at a CIA base near Khost in Afghanistan in 2009 that killed seven CIA agents and injured six others. The incident was later recreated in the film about the hunt for Osama bin Laden, Zero Dark 30.
However, according to Pakistan's Interior Minister, Chaudhry Nisar:
"Pakistan does not see this strike as an attack on a person, it is an attack on the peace process. Islamabad’s efforts have been ambushed. It was not even an ambush from the front.Seven-week behind-the-scene efforts by us, where brick by brick we tried to roll a process for peace in our homeland, and what have you (US) done? You reduced our weeks-long efforts to ashes hours before a delegation of respected ulema was to leave for Miranshah and hand over a formal dialogue invitation to the Taliban."
Let's be clear that this statement by Nisar is fantasy. This wasn't a "peace process" that was "murdered." Pakistan was about to invite Mehsud to attend negotiations. That's all. As soon as the peace talks were proposed, the Mehsud immediately started to impose conditions: TTP prisoners must be released from jail, the army must be withdrawn from the tribal areas where it has been fighting the Taliban, and the government must agree to impose Sharia law on the country. These conditions could never have been accepted by the Pakistan government. So Nisar's claim is just another totally absurd claim by another politician.
Nisar is demanding that the U.S. end drone strikes. He'd better have a chat with his government's own Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, which has always worked closely with the U.S. to identify drone strike targets. It's quite likely that the ISI was aware of the strike on Mehsud before it occurred. Daily Times (Pakistan) and VOA and Telegraph
China's aggressive demands in the South China Sea, demanding sovereignty over the entire region, including areas that have historically belonged to other nations, have backfired in the sense that they have had adverse consequences for China:
China has become increasingly isolated, with no "natural allies" in the region besides North Korea and Pakistan. [I would add Cambodia to this list.]
These adverse consequences to China's diplomatic policies do not mean that China will retrench and rethink its aggressiveness. To the contrary, the adversities will make China more nationalistic, and more likely to use military force, instead of diplomatic policies. China seems to be set on a collision course with the United States, Japan and India, and probably Russia as well. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG)
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China's state-run media are boasting about a submarine fleet capable of launching warheads at cities across the United States. This openness is a major change of policy. According to Chinese military expert Major General Yin Zhuo:
"By showing the world China’s military development, the army hopes to deter those who have ulterior motives. Those who want to challenge China’s core interests: they will not only face its naval aviation forces, but also its underwater submarine forces."
One Global Times article explains the military strategy as follows:
"Because the Midwest states of the U.S. are sparsely populated, in order to increase the lethality, [our] nuclear attacks should mainly target the key cities on the West Coast of the United States, such as Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego. ...If we launch our DF 31A ICBMs over the North Pole, we can easily destroy a whole list of metropolises on the East Coast and the New England region of the U.S., including Annapolis, Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Portland, Baltimore and Norfolk, whose population accounts for about one-eighth of America’s total residents."
China’s submarine fleet is reportedly the world’s second-largest, with about 70 vessels. About 10 are nuclear-powered, and four or more of those are nuclear ballistic submarines capable of launching missiles. CNTV (Beijing) and Washington Times and Daily Mail (London)
China has for the first time sent 4,000 ton electronic reconnaissance ship to Hawaii, within the U.S. 200-nautical mile EEZ (exclusive economic Zone). The ship is believed to have jamming equipment, and has a potential for offensive actions against the U.S. Global Research
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Nov-13 World View -- China boasts about submarines capable of attacking cities across U.S. thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(3-Nov-2013)
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'Death to America!' to be featured on Iran's American embassy anniversary
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has not been seen in public since October 5, and there are reports that his health is failing, and that a power struggle is brewing.
If there is change, a likely successor as the new Supreme Leader would be Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Like Khamenei, Rafsanjani was one of the survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution. When the original Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini) died in 1989, Khamenei beat out Rafsanjani for the role of new Supreme Leader.
The two have been vigorous rivals since then, and in 2009, Rafsanjani was a leader of the opposition to the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Rafsanjani is still a hardcore believer in the Islamic state, but he's considered a reformist leader, and is a representative of the views of the younger generations that grew up after the Islamic Revolution, and have no personal memory of it.
Iran is in a generational Awakening era, meaning that a generation has passed since the end of the last generational crisis war. The result is a "generation gap" between the survivors of the last crisis war and the younger generations growing up after the war. In America's Awakening era of the 1960s, the WW II survivors were concerned about stopping Communism in Vietnam, while the younger generation (the Boomers) were opposed to the Vietnam war, and supported political and gender equality, and compromise with the Soviet Union.
Today, Iran is following a similar path. I've written many articles in the last few years about young women demanding to be allowed to dress without headscarves (just as young women in the 1960s wore miniskirts and hot pants). And there have been large anti-government student demonstrations for years, peaking in the 2009 election.
Every Awakening era reaches a climax that ends in one of only two ways: The younger generation "wins", as happened in America when President Nixon resigned in 1974, or the older generation "wins", as happened in China in 1989 with the Tiananmen Square massacre.
Despite the 2009 crackdown against the student protesters, all signs point to an Awakening era victory by the younger generation. If Rafsanjani replaces Khamenei as the Supreme Leader, that will signal the beginning of the Awakening era climax. YNet
During the past few months, I've written about a possibly significant change in the rhetoric of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. In particular, he's been using a phrase with enormous historic significance, "heroic flexibility," to justify a rapprochement with America. I've written that this change was forced on him by the rise of the younger post-Revolution generations in Iran's generational Awakening era. A series of analyses by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) shows that the mechanism by which this occurred was through a series of political battles between Khamenei and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani still holds hard core beliefs in the Islamic state, but he has sided with the younger generation in supporting engagement with the U.S., in the spirit of "Islamic Realism" -- updating and adapting the values of the Islamic Revolution to the spirit of the times and to conduct a dialogue with the U.S., instead of leading Iran in an extremist path for the sake of an ossified "false idealism." Rafsanjani has successfully created a schism in Khamenei's camp, by forcing him to agree to direct talks with the U.S., and to become more flexible in other ideological issues. MEMRI and MEMRI
The bitter political struggle between the camps of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani will be particularly apparent on Monday, November 4, which is the 34th anniversary of the takeover of the the American anniversary in Tehran, leading to Iran's Great Islamic Revolution. The phrase "Death to America!" is a cornerstone of the Great Islamic Revolution, and every patriotic Iranian must be willing to chant this phrase on almost any occasion. ("I do, and Death to America") Rafsanjani has called for the elimination of this chant, because it accomplishes nothing, and it prevents engagement with the U.S. However, the Khamenei camp says that the chant encourages nationalism, and opposing the chant is a disrespect to Iran and Islam:
"It is the enemies’ plan to isolate and disrespect the nation. It is the enemies’ plot that some have dreamed that the Imam was against Death to America. Are we in a leaderless state where some can dream and say that the Imam was against Death to America. The Supreme Leader does not allow these memories.Death to America is rooted in the Quran. This slogan means hatred of Yazid [the caliph who killed Imam Hossein during the transformational Battle of Karbala in 680]."
During Monday's celebrations of the takeover of the American embassy, the pro-Khamenei camp has promised that "Death to America!" will be changed with special gusto. MEMRI and AEI Iran Tracker
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Starting with its policy of turning against Egypt's Hosni Mubarak when the Egyptian Revolution began in 2011, the Obama administration appears to be determined to do everything possible to alienate its one-time ally, Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are shocked as Syria's president Bashar al-Assad massacres hundreds of thousands of innocent Arab civilians, and drives millions of them from their homes to neighboring countries, and then deeply insulted and offended that the Obama administration is negotiating deals with Iran, Saudi's bitter enemy, and with Russia, deals that will leave al-Assad in power and essentially reward him for his genocidal massacre. The Saudis are very concerned about a deal between the U.S. and Iran that permits Iran to develop nuclear weapons. They're not concerned about Iran's use of them on Israel. They're concerned that they'll be used on Saudi Arabia, and those concerns are justified. The Saudis are looking for ways to derail negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Debka, which sometimes gets things wrongs, quotes its intelligence sources as saying that the recent terrorist attack on Iran's Revolutionary Guards by Jaish al-Adl (the Army of Justice), that we reported a few days ago, were actually arranged by the Saudis, working hand in glove with the government of Pakistan. If this is true, then we can expect retaliation from Iran, possibly creating a "war of terror" between the two countries.
Long-time readers are aware that for years I've been saying that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war would pit China + Pakistan + Saudi Arabia and others versus the U.S. + India + Russia + Iran. In recent months, Mideast geopolitics have been realigning to match this prediction. MEMRI and Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Nov-13 World View -- Growing power struggle in Iran may make Rafsanjani the Supreme Leader thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Nov-2013)
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How do you entertain a bored pharaoh?
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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United Nations and African officials are celebrating the victory by the army of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC or DR Congo) over the M23 militia and rebel group in eastern DRC. Officials are hopeful that this will finally bring peace to eastern DRC, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda, for the first time since the end of the horrific Rwanda genocide of 1994.
In 1994, there were two ethnic groups in Rwanda -- the Hutus and the Tutsis. They had lived together for decades, had intermarried, had their kids play games with each other and so forth. Then one day, a Hutu leader announced over the radio, "Cut down the tall trees." The radio announcement, which was heard all over the country was some sort of visceral signal. On cue, each Hutu did something like the following: Picked up a machete, went to the Tutsi home next door, or down the street, murdered and dismembered the man and children, raped the wife and then murdered and dismembered her. Close to a million Tutsis were tortured, raped and murdered in a three month period. The "tall trees" were the Tutsis, who are slightly taller than the Hutus.
In the generational Recovery era that following this crisis civil war, the Tutsis took control of Rwanda's government, and many Hutus fled to border regions in eastern DRC, where refugee camps were set up. The Hutu leaders of the 1994 genocide formed a group of armed militias called the FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda), which began conducting terrorist attacks on civilians, especially Tutsi civilians, living in eastern DRC.
There were Tutsi militias opposing the FDLR, and the most important recent one was the M23, named after an abortive March 23, 2009, peace agreement. M23 has also been supported by the current government of Rwanda, who deny that they're supporting M23, but who also say that they fear the FDLR plans to invade Rwanda again and complete the genocide.
With Wednesday's victory by the DRC army over M23, it is hoped that there will finally be peace between the FDLR and M23, and between the Hutus and the Tutsis, but Generational Dynamics predicts that's not going to happen. Rwanda is just now at the beginning of a generational Awakening era, following the end of the 1994 civil war. The typical civil war pattern is that the two sides start with low-level violence, usually during the Awakening era, and then go through warring periods alternating with periods of peace. Each warring period is more violent than the previous one, until there a massive new genocidal civil war, usually 55-65 years after the end of the previous one.
So the celebrations of victory are expected to be short lived. The M23 were defeated in their principal stronghold, but they didn't disappear in a puff of smoke. The towns and villages they controlled are now free, and the villagers are happy not to face the daily abuse of M23. But the M23 Tutsi rebels themselves simply ran away into the forest or into Uganda, until the next opportunity to regroup, rearm, and fight again. A new round of fighting between Hutus and Tutsis will not be far off. BD Live (S. Africa) and AP
There are mixed reports about whether representatives of the "Troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- have canceled their long-scheduled visit to Athens next week on Tuesday, since Greece has not yet met all the austerity commitments it's previously made, to qualify for the 240 billion euro bailout already pledged.
We've mentioned several times in the last few months that Greece has not laid off enough public employees or sold off enough public assets to cover the expected new debts that will arise in 2014. Well, then it was just a news story, but now it's an approaching crisis. Without laying off more workers or selling more assets, Greece will be 2 billion euros ($2.7 billion) short next year. That money will have to be made up either by more austerity or by a new bailout. The Germans are particularly opposed to a new bailout. On the other hand, Greece already has a 28% unemployment rate, so further layoffs don't seem like a good idea. And so, unless one side or the other backs down in a big way, we're getting close to another one of those nail-biting weekends. Kathimerini and Reuters
Question: "How do you entertain a bored pharaoh?"
Answer: "You sail a boatload of young women dressed only in fishing nets down the Nile and urge the pharaoh to go catch a fish."
-- A joke from 1600 BC Egypt, said to be about King Snofru. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Nov-13 World View -- United Nations celebrates M23 rebel militia defeat in Congo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(1-Nov-2013)
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