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Palestinians cheer Israeli release of 26 prisoners
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Twenty-six Palestinian prisoners were released from Israeli jails in the early hours of Tuesday morning, the third batch of a total of 104 prisoners who committed terrorist acts prior to the 1994 Oslo accords, and are to be released according to rules for the current "peace process" negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis.
Palestinians celebrate the releases as victories over Israel, but the releases are bitterly opposed by the families of the Israeli victims. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to follow the prisoner release with an announcement that Israel will build 1,400 more settlements in East Jerusalem, in order to gain political support within his government for the prisoner release.
So we have:
This is called "diplomacy by extortion."
Actually there have been some unconfirmed reports that President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry, with many foreign policy catastrophes already under their belts, are going to use threats to force Israel to accept some peace deal, possibly with a return to Israel's 1948 boundaries. Kerry is arriving in Israel today. BBC and Al-Jazeera
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At least 14 people were killed by a suicide bomber explosion on an electric trolley bus in Volgograd, Russia, the day after another suicide bombing blew up inside Volgograd's railway station. The two bombings appeared to be similar, and indeed they were also similar to a major suicide bombing of a bus in Volgograd in November by a female bomber. The similarities indicate that the same perpetrator is targeting Volgograd. The response is the launching of a special anti-terror operation, according to Russia's Interior Ministry:
"In Volgograd, police officers and internal troops have gone to a heightened security mode. Since Monday morning, the Vikhr-Antiterror operation has been under way. More than 4,000 Interior Ministry servicemen are taking part in it."
Russia is ordering extra security at bus and train stations across the country, but extra security won't resolve the larger picture: The concerns raised over security at the Sochi Winter Olympics games, scheduled to begin on February 5.
Chechnya Islamic warlord Doku Umarov, leader of the so-called Caucasus Emirate, is believed to be the perpetrator of all three attacks. In July, Umarov posted a video calling on jihadists around the world to use "maximum force" to disrupt the "satanic" Olympics games in Sochi. Vladimir Putin has provided plenty of security in and around the Sochi resort, spending billions on security to prevent terrorist attacks. But what's becoming clear is that Umarov can affect the games without attacking Sochi directly -- simply by attacking any soft target in the region.
Sochi is the most expensive Olympics in history, and probably the most corrupt Olympics in history. To recoup some of the money, Russia is going to need billions from sponsors and investors. If they get cold feet because of repeated terrorist attacks, then Umarov will have succeeded in carrying his threat to disrupt the "satanic" games. Moscow Times and Voice of Russia
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Dec-13 World View -- Another Volgograd explosion throws Russia's Sochi Olympics into doubt thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Dec-2013)
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Suicide bomber at Russia's Volgograd station sends Putin a message
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At least 16 people were killed and dozens injured on Sunday in a noontime blast at the main railway station in Volgograd, when a suicide bomber detonated a large bomb just outside the metal detectors that all passengers must pass through. There are conflicting reports whether the bomber was male or female.
Ordinarily, this would have been just another terrorist bombing in Russia, of not much interest to anyone except, of course, the people who are killed, maimed or hospitalized and their friends and families, or the people whose lives are destroyed in other ways.
But this bombing is international news because we're only a few weeks away from the Winter Olympics games to be held in Sochi in February. Having a successful Olympics event with plenty of international visitors is being viewed inside Russia as Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been doing everything possible to convince the world that Olympics will be safe, and he's spent huge sums on security throughout the region.
According to analysts I heard, this bombing is a message to Putin that even if he can protect a small region around Sochi, he still can't prevent terrorist acts in nearby cities, and these will continue to get international headlines, drawing attention away from Sochi.
Who's sending that message to Putin? It's thought to be Doku Umarov. Umarov is a veteran of the Chechnya wars fought in the 1990s and early 2000s by rebels wishing to separate Chechnya from Russia, and make it a separate state. Umarov has been on Russia's most wanted criminal list for various terrorist attacks and assassinations. In July, Umarov posted a video calling on jihadists around the world to use "maximum force" to disrupt the "satanic" Olympics games in Sochi. Umarov is the perpetrator of, among other things, the Moscow airport bombing in January 2011.
There was a major suicide bombing of a bus in Volgograd in November by a female bomber. Volgograd used to be called Stalingrad during World War II, and it was the site of a major victory, the Battle of Stalingrad, by the Russian army over the Nazis. Perhaps that's why Umarov chose Volgograd as the site of the message that he's sending to Putin. Russia Today and BBC
A couple of days after the murder of moderate Sunni leader Mohammad Shatah in the heart of downtown Beirut ( "28-Dec-13 World View -- Lebanon faces new chaos after car bombing in heart of Beirut"), Saudi Arabia is pledging $3 billion for the Lebanese army. In the same announcement, France's president François Hollande is offering to sell to Lebanon's army any weapons that it wishes to buy.
Right now, Lebanon's army is so weak that it couldn't defend a doghouse. The most powerful army in Lebanon belongs to the Shia terror group Hezbollah, which is funded by Iran. And so, Saudi Arabia's pledge will mean that Lebanon has two powerful armies, one Shia and one Sunni, funded respectively by two bitter enemies, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
More and more, the sectarian conflict in Syria is spilling over into Lebanon, and into the entire Mideast. Thanks to the actions of Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad, and his devoted weapons supplier Vladimir Putin, Syria has become a magnet for jihadists from all over the world. Sectarian tensions continue to grow each day, and a sectarian war will not be far off. Daily Star (Beirut) and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Dec-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia pledges $3 billion to Lebanon's army to buy weapons thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Dec-2013)
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What's interesting are the differences between the two.
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There is a very dramatic scene taking place in South Sudan, as an army of 25,000 young men, with ghostly demeanors from being covered with white ash to fend off bug bites, is marching toward the provincial capital of Bor. They're from the Nuer tribe, hoping to repeat the accomplishment of their fathers, when a similar "White Army" marched into Bor in 1991 and massacred the people of the Dinka tribe. I'm sure their minds are filled with the stories that their fathers told of the glories of those days, having fun slaughtering the men, raping the women, and dismembering both.
I would hate to underestimate the power of 25,000 young men lusting for a fight, and it's quite possible that the worst will happen, but this has all the earmarks of an impending debacle for the White Army. These 25,000 young men are almost all untrained civilians in a generational Awakening era when there is little desire for another war. ( "19-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads") Another big difference with 1991 is that the city of Bor is ready for them, and will be prepared not only to defend but to inflict surprise counterattacks.
Whatever happens in Bor, there's still plenty of ongoing violence in South Sudan. Much of the international interest is in the oil fields, which are contested by the Nuer and Dinka tribes. If they're shut down, then the global price of oil would increase. There's also the possibility of outside involvement. Nuer leaders are claiming that jet fighters from Uganda are entering South Sudan and bombing Nuer positions.
Over 100,000 people have fled their homes and are hiding out in United Nations compounds. It is feared that the White Army will attack one of the compounds, which are not well defended. The U.N. is requesting $166 million in aid from other countries. Sudan Tribune and VOA and NPR
Violence between the Christians and the Muslims has been growing since March, when Muslim Seleka rebels ousted the Christian president Francois Bozize, and proceeded to attack the Christians. The Christians began revenge attacks, leading thousands of Muslim Chadians to flee the country and return to Chad. France has deployed 1,600 soldiers there as peacekeepers, to supplement 4,000 troops from the African Union.
The media often portray the situations in South Sudan and CAR as being parallel -- two countries facing sectarian/tribal conflicts, with peacekeepers sent in to help bring about a so-called "political solution." However, what's really interesting is to look at the differences between the two situations.
South Sudan has oil, and so the U.N. Security Council has passed a resolution authorizing almost 15,000 peacekeepers to enter the country. China and Russia approved this resolution, which is different behavior than they have with Syria, where their hero, the genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad, bombs neighborhoods where innocent people are living, launches missiles into children's dormitories and bedrooms, and authorizes rapes, tortures and mutilations of innocent women and children on a large scale. But South Sudan is different, especially for China, which has a major oil deal with South Sudan.
CAR has no oil, and so France is pretty much on its own, though with a little logistical help from the United States. France would love to have some help from another European country, but no one seems interested.
But the really important difference between the two countries is generational. South Sudan is in a generational Awakening era. This means that there'll be low-level violence and tribal conflict, but no major tribal or ethnic wars that slaughter huge masses of people.
But CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), targeting the French colonialists. So the people of CAR have no personal memories of the horrors of their last generational crisis war. CAR is in a generational Crisis era, and a full-scale bloody war like the 1994 war in Rwanda is quite possible and not unlikely, which is not the case for South Sudan. BBC and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Dec-13 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Dec-2013)
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The spectacular fall of North Korea's number two leader
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Lebanese people were sent shivering again on Friday when a massive car bomb exploded in the heart of downtown Beirut, killing six people, including Mohammad Shatah, a leading moderate Sunni leader in Lebanon's government, and injuring at least 70. Shatah was extremely critical of government in Syria and of Hezbollah, and it's thought one of those two perpetrated the bombing.
The death of Shatah is thought to mark the end of Sunni moderation. There have been several tit-for-tat bombings in Lebanon, some targeting assets of the Shia terrorist organization Hezbollah, and the others targeting assets of Future Movement, the leading Sunni organization, led by Saad Hariri, whose own father was killed in 2005. (See "Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock" from 2005.) Possibly by coincidence, or possibly not, the United Nations is just about to begin an investigation into the 2005 bombing which is expected to show that the assassination was carried out by Syria and Hezbollah. Saad Hariri and Mohammad Shatah were Sunni advocates of moderation, but the violent death on Friday of Shatah may end this moderation and lead to open conflict between the Sunni and Shia factions in Lebanon.
The Syria conflict began in 2011, starting with peaceful anti-government protesters. Then Syria's genocidal monster Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad ordered his army to start shooting innocent protesters, bombing and flattening neighborhoods where innocent people were living, launching missiles into children's dormitories and bedrooms, raping, torturing, mutilating and massacring innocent women and children on a large scale, particularly targeting Sunnis.
This war quickly began to spill over into Lebanon, but it was mostly confined to the city of Tripoli in north Lebanon, on the border with Syria, where Sunni and Shia neighborhoods held frequent gunfights with each other.
However, Lebanon's chaos started to get dramatically worse on April 30, when Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad gave a televised speech committing Hezbollah's soldiers to enter Syria and fight on the side of al-Assad's army (See "27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast")
Since that time, the sectarian fighting has come closer and closer to Beirut, and in the couple of months has particularly targeted the respected heartlands of the Sunni and Shia political organizations in downtown Beirut. Daily Star (Beirut) and LA Times
The recent spectacular North Korean saga, where the child dictator Kim Jong-un very publicly accused Jang Song-thaek, his uncle and the country's number two leader, of sabotaging the regime, and then executing him has left many outsiders guessing how this could have happened. According to an Indian analysis, there are several reasons:
Kim Jong-un needs a core group of supporters in the North Korean elites, as his father and grandfather had, who will be loyal under all circumstances. Jang enjoyed a wide network of North Korean elites, and many of Jang's associates have been executed as well. Without Jang, there is no core group to support Kim Jong-un, leaving the child dictator vulnerable to a coup or, at the very least, unable to deal with the contest between the political and military elites of the country. Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS - India)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Dec-13 World View -- Lebanon faces new chaos after car bombing in heart of Beirut thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Dec-2013)
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Pakistan protesters block Nato supply route after new drone strikes
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Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a surprise visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo on Thursday, saying the purpose of the visit was to pray for peace. Yasukuni Shrine is the national shrine for millions of war dead in Japan regardless of what role they played. It is still a scared place to all Japanese. The shrine was initially created by Emperor Meiji to commemorate any individuals who had died in service of the Empire of Japan during the Meiji Restoration. However, the numbers of those enshrined there have been expanded since opening in 1867.
China and South Korea are infuriated by the visit, because 14 convicted or accused Class A war criminals are enshrined there, in addition to the war dead from World War II.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said:
"China will not tolerate this. Abe's visit severely went against the principle and spirit of the four political documents between the two countries, as well as the commitment made by former Japanese administrations and leaders on historical issues, and erected a major new political obstacle to the already strained China-Japan relations.
However, according to Abe:
"Some people criticize a visit to Yasukuni as something to pay homage to war criminals, an idea based on misunderstanding.I paid a visit to show (to the war dead) my determination to create an age where no one will ever suffer from tragedies of wars."
Thursday was also the 120th anniversary of Mao Zedong's birthday, which China celebrated with patriotic songs and TV docu-dramas. Purposely left out of this “glorious” history was any mention of Mao’s horrific mistakes: the Great Famine of 1958-61 that killed tens of millions and the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution that shattered the lives of millions. Much to the dismay of many Chinese, the party still blocks public debate of these tragedies in case it might undermine the party’s grip on power. Japan Times (Comment) and CNTV (Beijing) and CS Monitor
Israel will announce plans for new West Bank settlement construction next week, to coincide with the release of 26 additional Palestinian prisoners, as dictated by the so-called Israeli-Palestinian "peace process."
The current round of the "peace process" has been driven by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. In order to keep the Palestinians from walking out of the talks, Kerry got Israel to agree to release a total of 104 Palestinian prisoners, in four 26-prisoner batches every two months. All of the prisoners have been in jail since before the 1993 Oslo Accords. Thousands of Israelis protested the release of the first two batches, because almost all of the prisoners were convicted of kidnapping, lynching or murdering Israelis, or torturing and executing suspected Palestinian collaborators.
The third batch is scheduled for release on December 29, and there is so much internal opposition to the prisoner release that Israel is reconsidering whether to go ahead with it. In addition, the Israelis say that the prisoner releases create an "atmosphere of terror" that incite further terrorist acts by the Palestinians. In order to pacify the internal opposition, Israel is expected to pair the prisoner release with a new announcement of West Bank settlements -- something that will infuriate both John Kerry and the Palestinians.
Whether the prisoner release goes ahead or not, this new version of the peace process never had any chance of success. If the prisoner release does not go ahead, then the peace talks end now; if the prisoner release does go ahead, then the peace will end after the release of the fourth and last batch of prisoners in March. Israel National News and Arab News/AFP
A U.S. drone strike early Thursday morning killed at least four suspected militants. These drone strikes are extremely unpopular with the Pakistani, and they're condemned by the government as a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, it's widely believed that the drone strikes have the tacit approval of Pakistan's army and intelligence services.
Protesters reacted to the drone strikes by blocking the more southern of the two Nato supply routes through Pakistan. However, this blockage was only temporary, as police ordered the blockade to end.
There are two truck supply routes from Pakistan into Afghanistan. Both routes start in Karachi, Pakistan's principal port in its southern Sindh Province, on the Arabian Sea. From there, one route goes north, through the tribal area, and the other is more southern, passing through Balochistan Province into Afghanistan. The northern route has been blocked since December 3 by activists led by former cricket superstar turned anti-American politician Imran Khan. Khan's protesters also led Thursday brief blockade of the southern route.
NATO convoys coming through Pakistan were originally the principal source of logistical support for the allied Forces in Afghanistan, at one time accounting for 80 to 90 per cent of all supplies for NATO Forces. However, Nato forces have for years been seeking alternative supply routes. Starting on February 20, 2009, shipments began arriving through the the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a series of rail, water and road links to deliver cargo to Afghanistan through the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, and the NDN was carrying 40% of the supplies by 2011. Between July 2012 and February 2013, 28,000 containers came through the NDN into Afghanistan, while only 40 containers moved through Pakistan. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Dawn (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Dec-13 World View -- Japan's PM visits Yasukuni shrine, infuriating Chinese and Koreans thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Dec-2013)
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Calls for Erdogan to resign due to Turkey's corruption scandal
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Turkey was shaken on Wednesday morning when three ministers in the cabinet of prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan all resigned, and one of them called for Erdogan's resignation. In the case of each minister, his son has been the target of a wide-ranging corruption investigation that resulted in the arrest of 52 people, including bureaucrats and well-known businessmen. The corruption investigation involves billions of dollars, including illegal money laundering through Iran, and bribes and kickbacks for construction projects.
I made a mistake when I first reported this story last week. At that time, I wrote that 29 senior police officials in the Istanbul and Ankara police department had been forced to step down because they were involved in the corruption. That wasn't true. The reason that they were forced to step down is because they were leading the investigation against the corrupt government officials in Erdogan's administration, and Erdogan arranged for the police officers to be fired.
Late on Wednesday, Erdogan replaced ten ministers in his cabinet, in an effort to save his job and his government. He has denounced the investigation as a plot by foreign and domestic forces to undermine him. Zaman (Ankara) and AP
On Wednesday, the Sinai-based terrorist group Ansar Jerusalem has claimed credit for Tuesday's car bombing in a city north of Cairo, killing 11 people and injuring scores. ( "24-Dec-13 World View -- Sinai based Ansar Jerusalem kills 11 in car bomb attack in Egypt")
The Muslim Brotherhood condemned the car bombing, but most of Egypt's public perceive the Brotherhood to be responsible. There was widespread rioting against the Brotherhood late on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, the military government declared the Brotherhood to be a "terrorist organization," giving the police additional powers to arrest Brotherhood members and seize Brotherhood property.
However, human rights activists are saying that the declaration is unfounded and illegal According to human rights lawyer Malek Adly:
"It is a problem. This is an administrative decision and not a legislative one, as only the interim president has a legislative right to issue decisions and law, not the cabinet.I highly doubt that those who took the decision thought about its legal background thoroughly. It would have been better to wait for the court to issue a verdict to consider the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization.
There is a hysteria in the street because of the failure of security to deal with the Muslim Brotherhood and I personally believe that there are some parties in the government marketing to the idea that if we declare the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group all our problems in Egypt would be solved, which is untrue.
Muslim Brotherhood activists say that they'll continue with their anti-government protests, despite the terrorist designation. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera
North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, was "very drunk" when he order the execution of his uncle's two aides, according to reports. These were aides to Kim's 67 year old uncle, Jang Song-thaek, and they were executed two weeks before Jang himself was very publicly dragged out of a Workers' Party meeting in a televised humiliation. "11-Dec-13 World View -- Purge of Kim Jong-un's uncle signals N. Korean 'reign of terror'" Jang was then executed a few days later, as part of a larger string of purges and executions.
According to the reports, the drunken child dictator ordered the executions because Jang and his aides were refusing to give control of lucrative trade deals with China over to the military. These trade deals, for resources like clams, crabs and coal, make huge profits for North Korea. The Diplomat and Joongang Daily
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Dec-13 World View -- Egypt's 'terrorist group' designation of Muslim Brotherhood may be illegal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Dec-2013)
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Saudi Arabia student campaign to stop misuse of Mohammed's name
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Yesterday I asked readers to let me know if they've been having problems with the GenerationalDynamics web site. I received dozens of replies, and almost every one reported significant problems (500: Internal server error). Users said that they had to click Refresh several times before the error disappeared.
Dealing with Network Solutions/web.com customer service is a nightmare. They shuttle you from one "expert" to another, requiring repeated wait times on hold, and none of the "experts" seems to have any idea what's going on. Talking to Network Solutions/web.com customer service is worse torture than waterboarding.
However, I was able to open a new support ticket, and report that scores of users were having internal server errors with their servers. This information caused them to escalate the problem, and apparently is was fixed around 12:30 pm ET on Tuesday.
Thanks to everyone for your responses. They made a big difference. And additional thanks go to those who appended messages of appreciation for the daily World View column to their response. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone!
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Thousands of Palestinians and Israelis, as well as international pilgrims and tourists, arrived in Bethlehem on Tuesday to witness the Roman Catholic midnight mass at the Church of the Nativity, where it's thought that Jesus Christ was born. Visitors included Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas and European Union foreign minister Catherine Ashton.
The region of Bethlehem and Jerusalem is unique in the world because it's the homeland of world's four monotheistic religions -- Judaism, Western Christianity, Eastern Orthodox Christianity, and Islam. It has thus been the epicenter of almost every major world war for millennia. The people visiting Bethlehem are aware how easily some dispute could spiral into a major conflict, and so the chances are that every visitor will be on his best behavior.
There is one more midnight mass to be performed at the Church of the Nativity in this year's holiday season. Orthodox Christmas is celebrated on January 7, and there'll be a midnight mass in Bethlehem on January 6 at midnight, as well as in Moscow, Athens, Cairo, and other places with Orthodox Christian communities. Deutsche-Welle and LA Times
A group of Saudi Arabian students from a university in Jeddah are starting a campaign aimed at honoring the name of the Muslim prophet Mohammed. Apparently it's common practice in Saudi Arabia that if you don't know the name of the person you're talking to, even a non-Muslim, then you call him Mohammed. Even worse, very often the name is used in this way in a pejorative sense.
According to one college professor:
"The prevalence of using ‘Mohammed’ in this inappropriate way surfaced around 15 years ago and I remember we never used this name to call unknown people or workers before. Unfortunately, we as Muslims and members of the Saudi community disregarded the sanctity of the name until we arrived at a point that we began to use it to show our resentment toward strangers."
This pretty clearly indicates this pejorative use of the name Mohammed is generational. I would advise these university students to take care, because the unintended consequence of their campaign is likely to be more widespread use of the name in this way among young Saudis. Arab News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Dec-13 World View -- Bethlehem celebrates Roman Catholic midnight mass on Christmas eve thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Dec-2013)
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Turkey replaces Iran as primary funding source for Hamas
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
I'd like to ask readers to please go to the main web site, GenerationalDynamics.com and trying clicking on a few links, and see if you get server resets. Just try about twenty or thirty clicks, and let me know if there are any problems, or if they go smoothly. Please let me know either way.
I'm getting plenty of server resets, and I'm trying to determine whether it's happening to everyone, or just to me.
You can send me an e-mail message, or you can go to the comment link at the end of this article and post your findings anonymously. Thanks.
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The conflict in the Central African Republic is taking a new turn as militias on each side clash with a particular segment of the peacekeeping force. The Seleka militias, mostly Muslims, are clashing with the mostly Christian peacekeeping forces from France, describing them as Nazis, leading the French army forces to open fire on suspected ex-Seleka fighters who were "preparing to use their weapons," killing three. France is the former colonial power, and has 1,600 peacekeeping soldiers in C.A.R.
The anti-Balaka militias, mostly Christian, are clashing with the mostly Muslim peacekeeping forces from Chad, who are a contingent of the African Union peacekeeping forces in C.A.R. Many Christians accuse the Chad forces of openly siding with the Seleka militias, and point out that Chadians have been part of the Seleka militias from the beginning. In clashes with Christians, Chadian forces fired into the crowd on Monday, killing one and injuring 40. This was after a Ugandan peacekeeper was killed by Christian militias over the weekend. The African Union has 4,000 troops in C.A.R., including a contingent from Chad, which is a country that borders C.A.R.
Hostility to the peacekeepers on all sides is growing, and complicates the effort to prevent all-out war. BBC and Reuters and AP
Unnamed Israeli intelligence sources are saying that Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is overseeing the transfer of up to $250 million per year to Hamas, the governors of Gaza, and identified as a terrorist organization by the West. The money is being channeled through private sources, with full coordination by Erdogan. In addition, Turkey is said to be providing training to Hamas security forces.
Hamas used to have it headquarters office in Damascus, Syria, and its biggest financial backer used to be Iran, which provided $20 million per month. However, when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad started massacring innocent Sunni Arab civilians, the Hamas broke with al-Assad, moved its office from Damascus to Doha, Qatar, causing Iran to break with Hamas. In 2012, Qatar pledged $400 million to the Hamas regime, but the money never arrived. And so, according to these reports, Turkey has become the main funding source for Hamas. World Tribune and Israel National News
A car bomb attack early Tuesday on a police headquarters in Mansour, a Nile Delta city north of Cairo, killed 11 people, and injured dozens. The attack comes a day after al-Qaeda linked Sinai terrorist group Ansar Jerusalem (Ansar Bayt al Maqdis or Champions of Jerusalem) issued a statement calling on Egypt's police and army to desert because they were supporting a secular government.
According to the Ansar Jerusalem statement:
"[The security services] are using you as a tool in implementing the schemes of the Jews and Christians and waging war on Islam and Muslims. With your staying in these institutions from evening to morning, you are incurring the anger of Allah."
Ansar Jerusalem was founded by Egyptians, but is thought to be allied with Hamas. It is the dominant jihadist group operating in the Sinai Peninsula today, and has claimed credit for a number of attacks against Israel and Egypt over the past two years. AP and Long War Journal
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Dec-13 World View -- Sinai based Ansar Jerusalem kills 11 in car bomb attack in Egypt thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Dec-2013)
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Al-Qaeda apologizes for terrorist attack on Yemen hospital
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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U.S. defense officials are saying that China's military has conducted a second flight test of its Dong Feng-41 (DF-41) long-range missile, capable of hitting targets in the United States with a nuclear warhead. When fully deployed, a single one of these missiles will be capable of carrying up to 10 nuclear warheads, each targeting a different location. According to a report by the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center:
"China has the most active and diverse ballistic missile development program in the world. It is developing and testing offensive missiles, forming additional missile units, qualitatively upgrading missile systems, and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses.The Chinese ballistic missile force is expanding in both size and types of missiles."
China is also rapidly deploying a JL-2 missile that can be launched from a submarine, carrying three warheads. This would allow China to launch simultaneous attacks with long-range land-based missiles in China to target the western United States, and then use submarines to attack cities on the east coast.
In 2011, I reported on China's DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile. ( "2-Aug-11 World View -- China could defeat U.S. in war over Taiwan") That missile was designed to target U.S. aircraft carriers. The problem with targeting any ship with a missile is that the ship can keep moving as the missile travels. So the DF-21D is designed to travel at high altitudes to the region of the aircraft carrier, and then use heat sensors to detect its new position.
China's rapid development of diverse missiles targeting America will change the entire geopolitical situation. China is currently using its vast military power to annex or threaten to annex regions of India, central Asia, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other nations. These countries have depended on the United States for protection from China's military, but with the U.S. itself under threat, China will be able to act more aggressively towards its neighbors, and confiscate additional regions. The concern among these nations is exacerbated by President Barack Obama's perceived weakness in foreign affairs, and his continuing reductions in deployed warheads that might serve to deter a Chinese attack.
As I've been saying for almost ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that China is rapidly and aggressively preparing for preemptive war against the United States. When China decides to attack, they'll do so to achieve maximum surprise and with maximum force. So they'll launch hundreds of nuclear missiles at American cities, military installations, and aircraft carriers.
The U.S. will still function after such an attack, even with numerous destroyed cities, and it's doubtful that China will win the war in the long run. China will be facing enemies all around it -- Japan, Vietnam, India, Russia -- and will also be dealing internal rebellions. After five or six years, the survivors will start to rebuild the world, and will vow that no similar war should ever be allowed to happen again. Washington Free Beacon and Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence (PDF)
In the Muslim world, the biggest complaint about al-Qaeda is that they kill a lot more Muslims than Westerners. Gunfire and bombings that kill Muslims in markets, restaurants and mosques are quite common in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and other countries. But apparently a car bomb attack on a hospital in military complex in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, on December 5 has drawn so much criticism to Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) that they've actually been forced to issue an apology.
Of course there was no apology on the day of the attack. On that day, AQAP's media arm tweeted:
"[The compound was] stormed... after the mujahedeen (holy warriors) proved that it accommodates drone control rooms and American experts. As part of a policy to target drone control rooms, the mujahedeen have dealt a heavy blow to one. Such security headquarters in partnership with the Americans in their war on these Muslim people are a justified target wherever they may be."
Unfortunately for AQAP, their 25 terrorist attackers didn't kill any Americans in drone control rooms. Instead, they killed 52 hospital patients.
But now, over two weeks later, AQAP is humming a different tune. According to an AQAP military commander:
"The attack was on the ministry of defense, it was not on the hospital. We told them (jihadists) to be cautious, not to enter the prayer place or the hospital. Eight of our brothers were cautious, and one did not. May Allah forgive him and have mercy on him."
AFP and AFP (12/6/2013)
Ever since the July 3 army coup that deposed President Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government, the army has jailed or killed thousands of members of the Muslim Brotherhood. But on Sunday, three secular and liberal activists were sentenced to three years in jail for organizing an unlicensed protest, and fined $7,100 each. They were found guilty of violating a law passed on November 24 that forbids protests without police permission. Recent actions by the ruling junta signal a new direction of returning the government to a full dictatorship, as it had been under Hosni Mubarak. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Dec-13 World View -- China conducts flight test of DF-41 long-range nuclear-capable missile thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Dec-2013)
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North Korea threatens South with 'merciless attack' via fax machine
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China is denouncing Japan's change in military strategy from "pacifism" to "proactive pacifism. Japan plans substantial increases in defense and military spending, especially to create a new amphibious assault force, in response to China's surging military strength and nationalistic aggression. ( "18-Dec-13 World View -- Japan announces new military buildup to counter China")
China's first reaction, on Wednesday, was:
"It is hardly cheering news that a country whose leaders still salute war criminals has formally launched its military reconstruction."
This refers to the visits by Japanese politicians to make annual personal visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which contains Japanese dead from WW II, including 14 convicted or accused Class A war criminals.
China's Defense Ministry spokesman said, "China is firmly opposed to Japan's relevant actions," and said:
"On the one hand, Japan claimed that it is a peace-loving country, and that it adheres to a defensive defense policy and will not be a military power. On the other hand, Japan is peddling the so-called "proactive pacifism".In its new defense program guidelines, Japan gave up the policy of building of a moderate self-defense force. ...
Japan also planned to purchase advanced armament like F-35 stealth fighters, surveillance drone fleet and Aegis destroyers and tried to form a fast-response-amphibious unit.
Where is Japan's military and security policy going? ... It causes great concerns from Japan's Asian neighbors and international society.
On the one hand, Japan claimed that it respects freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law, but on the other hand, it repeatedly denied its history of aggression during the Second World War, challenged the post-war international order and hurt the feeling of the people of the war-victim countries, he said.
As a nation that can not reflect on its history, what qualification does Japan have to speak about freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law? How can the country make contributions to the world peace?
Japan has on the one hand claimed to strengthen international coordination, safeguard peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, and make efforts to ensure security and prosperity of the international community, but on the other hand it sticked [sic] to the Cold War mentality and beefed up military alliance with relevant countries.
Japan also tried to woo other countries to create regional confrontation and roil the regional situation, he said, noting that Japan's actions run counter to the trend of the times featuring peaceful development and win-win cooperation.
We urged Japan to make deep introspection on its history, honor its commitment to peaceful development, and try to improve its relations with Asian neighbors with concrete actions, so as to play a constructive role in safeguarding regional peace and stability."
China Ministry of Defense and BBC
Ghalib Khan, a health technician working in Pakistan's polio vaccination program was shot multiple times and killed by motorcycle gunmen on Saturday morning. The Taliban have been killing workers in the polio vaccination sector, claiming that polio vaccinations are a Western plot to prevent Muslims from having children. The result is that polio is in endemic in Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan and Nigeria. Furthermore, Pakistan's polio has been spreading, as strains of Pakistan's polio virus have been found in other countries, including Syria and China. According to the latest data, the greatest number of polio cases in Pakistan are in the northwest, in and near the tribal areas, where the Taliban have been most active in killing health workers. Pakistan Today
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The North Koreans have faxed a threat to the South Koreans, saying that they will conduct a "merciless strike" against the strike, "without notice." According to a South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman said they faxed a response right back: "We've sent a reply vowing to react sternly to any provocations by North Korea."
The North's faxed threat was a response to rallies held by North Korean defectors protesting child dictator Kim Jong-un's human rights abuses, some burning effigies of Kim and his father. The North Korean military condemned that the rallies insulted North Korea's "highest dignity," referring to the child dictator.
There is still considerable concern among South Koreans about the aftermath of last week's execution of Kim's uncle, Jang Song-thaek. There have reportedly been dozens more executions, including Jang's relatives and other senior officials who worked with former dictator Kim Jong-il. I get the impression from the reports that anyone over the age of 35 has been executed, leaving the child dictator and his young friends to run the country. That's undoubtedly an exaggeration, but still, the possibilities for instability are large. Yonhap (Seoul) and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Dec-13 World View -- China denounces Japan's planned military expansion thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Dec-2013)
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Positions harden in U.S. vs India diplomatic debacle
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The diplomatic debacle between the U.S. and India seems to be escalating, as new facts come out and positions harden on both sides. ( "18-Dec-13 World View -- Arrest in NY of female Indian diplomat raises a major diplomatic altercation".)
Devyani Khobragade, an Indian diplomat, was arrested for underpaying her nanny, also an Indian, and for lying about the pay on her visa application. Indians are furious because Khobragade was arrested, strip searched, and forced to sit in a lockup with drug users for several hours, which the New York City police say is standard procedure.
Well where, you might ask, was the nanny in all of this? That's where the new facts are coming out. The nanny's name is Sageeta Richard. Khobragade says that Richard disappeared on June 24, and then attempted to blackmail Khobragade for money. Richard also stole from Khobragade, according to Khobragade. Richard's attorney says that until she left, she was forced to work seven days a week, from early morning to late at night for little pay.
Khobragade is now out of jail on bail, but the U.S. State Dept. is refusing to grant her diplomatic immunity, saying that diplomatic immunity applies "only for acts performed in exercise of her consular duties." A State Dept. spokesman says that there are no plans to drop the criminal complaint: "We take these allegations very seriously. We're not in any way walking back from those allegations or the charges. Again, this is really a law enforcement issue."
Indian reports say that they are working with the State Dept. to find a way to grant Khobragade "retroactive immunity," so that she can be returned to India. Washington Post and Indian Express
At a time when Europe appears to be disarming voluntarily, Russia is having a resurgence as a military power, raising concerns in Poland about Russia as a potential threat to its security and sovereignty. The concerns reached a high anxiety level in 2008 following two landmark developments: Russia's invasion of Georgia, annexing two Georgian provinces, and a Nato summit that ended the prospects of Nato membership for Ukraine and Georgia. These events brought back the specter of conventional state-on-state conflict along Europe’s periphery. While NATO and the United States remain central to Poland’s security, there has been a reorientation in Poland’s strategy toward regional and traditional territorial defense.
Poland has doubled its defense spending over the past decade, and the ministry of defense has launched an armed forces modernization plan to cost $61 billion by 2022. The hardware shopping list will include new ships, helicopters, tanks and armored personnel carriers, additional aircraft, and most importantly, new air and missile defenses. The antiballistic (ABM) system is the most significant of Poland’s military modernization efforts, and felt to be most needed for protection from Russia. Poland plans to spend an additional $30 billion on equipment modernization across the services, on added information technology capabilities, and on increasing the overall combat readiness of the Polish forces. An old Polish saying captures well the public mood on national defense: "If you can count, ultimately count on yourself." AEI
France's president François Hollande has been begging for help in Central African Republic, where the situation continues to worsen despite the presence of 1600 French soldiers. France is alone in C.A.R., and Hollande would like the help of some other European country, because then it would be "considered a European operation and there would be financial aid." Poland has agreed to help out, and will give France logistical support with a military transport aircraft and a service crew of 50 soldiers starting on February 1, 2014 for three months. AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Dec-13 World View -- Poland surges past the EU in military modernization and growth thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Dec-2013)
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Obamacare goes into total panicked chaos
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It seems that Russia's president Vladimir Putin must be in a Christmassy mood. Russia's parliament, presumably with Putin's blessing, on Wednesday approved a sweeping amnesty law that will free tens of thousands of prisoners from Russia's prisons. The amnesty law will apply primarily to retirees, invalids, women with children and pregnant women, and victims of the Chernobyl disaster.
The amnesty law will free the "Pussy Riot" girls who, last year in February, charged up to the front of Moscow's Cathedral of Christ the Saviour during a service and sang a song criticizing Putin. The incident might have been forgotten, but the girls put the whole performance on YouTube, where it became viral. They were tried and convicted of hooliganism, and were threatened with being jailed for years. The new amnesty law means that they'll be free soon.
The amnesty law will also applies to the Greenpeace activists who, in October, attempted to scale a Gazprom offshore oil platform in the Arctic Ocean, hoping that the big publicity stunt would embarrass the Russians. They also faced years of jail time on charges of hooliganism, but the new law will free them as well.
The amnesty will also apply to Mikhail Khodorkovsky (see next item).
Putin's warm-hearted gestures come just a couple of days after the visit to Moscow by Ukraine's president Viktor Yanukovich. During their meeting, Putin kindly offered to loan $15B in aid to Ukraine, with no strings attached, to keep Ukraine from defaulting on its foreign debt. Ukraine wouldn't have to join Putin's Eurasia Customs Union, and Ukraine would still be allowed to trade with the European Union.
It's thought that Putin is going all out to put on a warm, friendly face for the Winter Olympics to be held in Sochi in February, only six weeks from now. Leaders of several European countries -- France, Germany, Lithuania -- have announced that they will boycott Sochi because of human rights issues in Russia. By freeing thousands of prisoners, including high-profile prisoners like Pussy Riot, Greenpeace activists, and Khodorkovsky, Putin may hope to reduce the volume of some of the planned human rights protests. The same reasoning applies to the free gift to Ukraine, where the pro-Russian government has been facing massive anti-government protests.
I would suggest that anyone receiving amnesty under this law should try to get out of Russia before the end of the Olympics games, because Putin may not feel so Christmassy at that time. Ria Novosti and BBC
The biggest amnesty news came on Thursday, when Russia's president Vladimir Putin made an informal remark after a press conference that Mikhail Khodorkovsky would be freed after ten years.
In 2004, for some reason that I no longer remember, I became fascinated by the sage of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his company Yukos. Khodorkovsky was CEO of Yukos, Russia's second largest oil company; it was so big that it supplied 11.4% of all the oil for the WHOLE WORLD, and alone accounted for 4% of Russia's economy.
Khodorkovsky's fatal mistake occurred in October, 2003, when he announced a political campaign against Putin. Khodorkovsky was arrested shortly after that.
In 2004, we saw a series of moves designed to allow Putin to nationalize Yukos. Anyone interested can look at the series of articles on my web log from 2004. But I'll only mention the final step, which was worthy of being the grand finale of a comic opera.
After a series of steps designed to drive Yukos into bankruptcy, in December, 2004, Putin's judiciary was about to hold an auction of Yukos's assets. It was expected that Gazprom would be the major bidder, which would complete the nationalization of Yukos. (See "After a week of high comedy, who the heck is Baikal?" from 2004.)
It really was high comedy all the way. In an attempt to delay the auction, Yukos' lawyers asked a court to stop it. And which court did they go to? They when to an American bankruptcy court in Houston, Texas!! And the Houston court obliged, ordering the Russian government not to hold the auction on Sunday. The bankruptcy court's ruling was upheld on Saturday evening by an American federal appeals court.
Well, the auction was held on Sunday anyway, and Gazprom did not even bid on it. Instead, the winning bid was a very low $9.4 billion from the Baikal Finance Group, which had a small energy subsidiary.
Well, who the heck was Baikal? Nobody knew, and there were a lot of people following this deal. Well, a couple of days later, some reporters tracked it down. Baikal's address was a liquor store in Tver, a city 100 miles from Moscow, and reporters visiting there were told that they never heard of Baikal, and had never been visited by any oil tycoons. In the end, Baikal was just an empty shell company that Putin used in his scheme to nationalize Yukos.
Meanwhile, Khodorkovsky was still in jail, and in the last ten years, Putin has repeatedly made statements suggesting that he would be in jail for the rest of his life. It was just a couple of months ago that a Kremlin official said that they were filing new charges against Khodorkovsky to make sure that he never gets out.
So that's why everyone was so surprised on Thursday, when warm, friendly Uncle Vlad said that Khodorkovsky would soon be freed. Apparently Khodorkovsky himself was not aware that this would happen, nor were his lawyers or his family.
During 2004, when I followed the Yukos story, I was astounded how vicious and crooked Putin is, and how easily he got away with it, which seems to be the power of some politicians. There have been many more examples of Putin's unscrupulousness since 2004, of course, but I certainly do not believe that this amnesty program or the freeing of Khodorkovsky have anything to do with the claimed humanitarian concerns. I would repeat the advice I gave above: Especially for Khodorkovsky, get out of Russia if you can before the Sochi Olympics games end, because Putin may then look for a new excuse to put you back in jail. Moscow Times and CS Monitor
The Obamacare web site, Healthcare.gov, continues to be the greatest IT disaster in the world, while Obamacare policies continue in total chaos. (See "1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed")
Now, as January 1 approaches, when millions of people will become uninsured because of Obamacare, the administration announced late Thursday evening another rules change, allowing people to buy "catastrophic" plans that are forbidden under the law as passed by Congress. One insurance industry official said that this last minute panicked change "will cause tremendous instability in the marketplace."
As long-time readers know, when the plan was announced in 2009, I wrote that it would be "economic insanity" because it would be a repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price controls that were announced in August, 1972. The chaos was overwhelming, with a welter of rules that no one could really figure out. (As one politician said, "Remember, Virginia, when it’s a cucumber you can raise the price, but when it becomes a pickle, [the price is] frozen.") There was one fix after another to save the program, but in the end it was a total disaster for the economy. Instead of lowering the inflation rate to 2%, as had been predicted, the inflation rate shot up to 12%, because the wage-price controls program screwed up the economy so much. It took a decade for the economy to recover.
Now we're seeing the same thing happen again. Obamacare is an unmitigated disaster for the health care industry and for the economy, and every time they try to save it with some new tweak or adjustment, they make the situation worse. Fox News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Dec-13 World View -- Russia to free Pussy Riot, Greenpeace activists and Khodorkovsky thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Dec-2013)
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Corruption probe throws Turkey's government into crisis
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In Turkey, 52 people, including bureaucrats, well-known businessmen, and the sons of three ministers were arrested on Tuesday in a massive corruption investigation that threatens the government of prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The corruption investigation extends deep into the police department, as 29 senior police officials in the Istanbul and Ankara police departments were forced to step down from their posts for "abuse of office" related to the investigations.
The corruption charges are broad. Azeri businessman Reza Zarrab is accused of paying bribes to Cabinet members to protect his alleged crime gang, and to coverup a range of illegal transactions, including smuggling $150 million in cases from Turkey to Russia. Meanwhile, police searching the home of detained Halkbank general manager Suleyman Aslan have found $4.5 million in cash hidden in shoe boxes in his library.
The corruption charges are thought to have come about because of a split within Erdogan's AK political party, pitting himself against a former ally, Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish Islamic cleric, currently living in the United States. Erdogan himself has denounced the corruption investigation as a "dirty operation" by political enemies of his government. Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Zaman (Ankara) and BBC
The United States and Britain on Wednesday began evacuating their personnel from their embassies in Juba, the capital of South Sudan. The evacuations come three days after gunbattles broke out in Juba. Some reports indicate that the gunbattles are between members of warring Dinka and Nuer tribes.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is really a remarkable story. What's really panicking people is not the gunbattles in Juba, but other gunbattles in the nearby provincial capital Bor. Those gunbattles triggered mass exodus of citizens, and more than 20,000 civilians are now shelting at two U.N. compounds in Juba.
Now, there's nothing pleasant about nearby gunbattles, but why would those cause 20,000 people to flee their homes and take a dangerous trip to Juba, where they risk not even being welcome?
To answer that question, we have to look back to November 15, 1991, when the "Bor Massacre" began. Over the next three months, 2,000 civilians were killed, thousands more wounded, at least 100,000 people fled the area. Famine followed the massacre, as looters burnt villages and raided cattle, resulting in the deaths of 25,000 more from starvation.
Nothing like that could possibly happen today, because the surviving generations won't permit it. But people in the same surviving generations are afraid that it WILL happen again, and so they're fleeing their homes and running to the U.N. in anticipation of another massacre, that won't occur. VOA and London Post (2011)
The Central African Republic (CAR) is quite a different story. As each day goes by, it becomes clear that the violence between Muslims and Christians is spiraling out of control, despite the attempt by French forces to disarm both. Most of the victims so far have been Christians, but the massacres and atrocities are escalating on both sides.
Last week I asked readers to help me out with the history of CAR, and several people wrote to me to point out that the last generational Crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), targeting the French colonialists. I thank the people who wrote to me with that information.
The general rule in generational theory is that a new generational crisis war can only occur when the survivors of the previous crisis war have disappeared (died or retired), all at once. This generational change happens about 58 years after the climax of the previous crisis war. It's almost impossible for a new crisis war to begin less that 50 years after the previous climax, but the probability goes up each year, reaching a peak at the 58 year mark (the statistical "mode"). However, there are many examples where the new crisis war begins 60 or 70 or more years after the previous climax.
So going back to the southern part of South Sudan, the previous crisis war climaxed with the Bor Massacre in 1991. So now, 22 years later, a new crisis war is impossible, despite the fact that almost every news report says that it might happen at any time. (As an aside, the northern part of South Sudan had a more recent crisis war that climaxed in 2009 with the secession of South Sudan from Sudan.)
The reason that a new crisis war in the South Sudan is impossible isn't rocket science. When any population goes through the horrors of a generational crisis war, which is the worst kind of war known to man, then the survivors vow that they will devote their lives to making sure that nothing like that ever happens to their children or grandchildren. And their efforts are successful, until they pass away, and then a new crisis war can begin.
So in the case of C.A.R., it's now 82 years after the end of the preceding crisis war, so the mood is very, very ripe for a new crisis war, and it's extremely likely that the current conflict between Muslims and Christians will spiral into full-scale war, and that France's army will be overwhelmed.
While I'm on this subject, the last crisis war for Mali was the Tuareg rebellion that climaxed in 1963. So now, 50 years later, a new crisis war is almost impossible, and in fact the fighting in Mali appears to have simmered down, except for invading al-Qaeda linked militias in the north. Human Rights Watch
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Dec-2013)
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Arrest in NY of female Indian diplomat raises a major diplomatic altercation
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Indian citizens are expressing fury that Devyani Khobragade, an Indian diplomat, was arrested by New York City police last Thursday on charges of having submitted fraudulent visa paperwork, and for paying her nanny about 1/3 of the minimum wage. In her visa papers, Khobragade said she would pay her nanny $4,500 a month, but actually paid the nanny $573.07 a month If found guilty, Khobragade faces a maximum sentence of 10 years for visa fraud and five years for making false statements. India is invoking diplomatic immunity, which the district attorney is contesting.
The anger in India is over the way that Khobragade was allegedly treated: According to reports, she was arrested and handcuffed in front of her daughter while dropping her off at school, and then she was taken to the police station, where she was strip-searched and forced to remain in a cell with drug dealers for several hours. American officials say that this is standard procedure for everyone.
India's government is taking harsh retaliatory measures against U.S. diplomats in Delhi. The government is demanding the return of special identification cards, and has already removed the barricades protecting the American embassy, evidently seeking to invite a car bomb attack on the embassy.
Some officials are demanding that gay partners of American diplomats be arrested, as homosexuality is illegal in India. India is seeking an unconditional apology. Times of India and CS Monitor
Japan has announced a plan to change its military strategy from "pacifism" to "proactive pacifism," and to increase defense spending and transform its military from a largely land-based force to a new amphibious assault force. The shopping list includes twenty-eight F-35 stealth fighters, 17 Osprey tilt rotor aircraft, 52 amphibious assault vehicles, and 99 light combat vehicles.
Japan's military buildup plans come in response to China. China has quadrupled its defense budget in the last ten years, has claimed vast areas of the South and East China Seas, including regions that have historically belonged to other countries, has threatened to use its vast military power to take some of these areas by force, and has been harassing Japanese ships around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, which are governed by Japan. Japan News and BBC
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry rebuked China for unilaterally setting up an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea. ( "24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands") In the ADIZ announcement in November, China demanded that all aircraft must identify themselves or their flight plans before entering the zone, or else face military consequences. Kerry's statement criticized China's ADIZ in the East China Sea, and also warned China not to announce an additional ADIZ in the South China Sea:
"So we’re not suggesting that we’re doing something out of the ordinary here. We don’t want anything except a rule-of-law approach to the resolution of any issues and conflicts. So when you say what do we want from China, we would hope to continue to work closely with China, as we are on North Korea and other issues – trade and so forth – in an effort to try to resolve these kinds of differences or questions in a peaceful way. We believe there is a structure that exists – the Law of the Sea structure, an arbitration process. We have not taken a position on the particular claims asserted by anybody. We have taken a position on the way that we think they should be resolved. So we support arbitration and we support rule of law. We do not support unilateral actions that have the impact of being provocative and raising the temperature and potential conflict.So we are not approaching this with any particular view towards China except to say when China makes a unilateral move, we will state our position and make clear what we agree or disagree with, and that’s what we’ve done with respect to the ADIZ. We do not accept it. We think it is – there’s a way to approach it. A country has a right to establish an ADIZ. But it has to be done through a process of consultation, work with the International Aviation Organization, and in a way that other nations are consulted and work with it. And we think that’s the best way to proceed, and I think most countries in the world believe that’s the best way to proceed."
The statement was made during a press conference in Manila, the Philippines. State Dept.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Dec-13 World View -- Japan announces new military buildup to counter China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Dec-2013)
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U.N. makes biggest funding request ever, for Syria
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The United Nations on Monday made the biggest appeal for emergency aid in its history, a total request of $12.9 billion, half of which is for victims of Syria's war. According to the U.N., 9.3 million people inside Syria require aid. In addition, around 2.4 million refugees have fled, mainly to Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt.
This appeal comes a day after Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime dropped dozens of "barrel bombs" on civilian neighborhoods in Aleppo, killing 76, including 28 children.
The war in Syria began almost three years ago, when al-Assad ordered his army to start shooting innocent protesters, bombing and flattening neighborhoods where innocent people were living, launching missiles into children's dormitories and bedrooms, raping, torturing, mutilating and massacring innocent women and children on a large scale. These genocidal acts are continuing, but thanks to Russia, which is fully participating in the genocidal acts by supplying unlimited weapons to al-Assad, the U.N. has not even criticized the al-Assad regime. And this is also thanks to the U.S., which has sold out its foreign policy to the Russians.
So we have the ridiculous situation where al-Assad is killing hundreds of thousands of his own civilians, and is making millions more homeless, freezing and starving, and what does the U.N. do? Instead of even criticizing the genocidal acts, it begs people for an unlimited amount of money to provide aid to the continuing flow of genocide victims. The U.N. is like a funeral director who arranges for people to be killed in order to have more business.
In the meantime, the actions of Alawite/Shia Bashar al-Assad to try to exterminate all the Sunnis in Syria has inflamed the entire Mideast along sectarian lines, and has turned Syria into a magnet for Sunni jihadists from all over the world. This is an absolute disaster. AFP and AP
A serious split is developing among the Arabian Gulf states in the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) over the apparent rapprochement between Iran and the West. Saudi Arabia has already split with the United States and the United Nations over what the Saudis call "hypocrisy" over the Syria issue, following President Obama's flip-flop over the "red line" on chemical weapons.
The improving relationship between the U.S. administration and Iran is turning Saudi Arabia's concerns to alarm. The Saudis consider Iran to be a mortal enemy, and they view Iran's influence as growing throughout the region, thanks to their relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon and al-Assad in Syria, and the support of the United States and Russia. The Saudis are proposing that the GCC nations form a "Gulf Union," similar to the European Union. According to a Saudi official:
"[It is] Saudi Arabia's desire to reach the phase of the Gulf Union, because it is the interest of the GCC states, and because unity would grant the Gulf strength so it can continue being an active partner in Middle Eastern affairs... The Arab Gulf, with its possibilities and achievements, has become a target for threats by several elements, which makes the call to transition from the stage of cooperation to that of union a pressing matter… The union is no longer a luxury, but rather a challenge... in light of the increasing dangers around us. The Union has become the first and only option for Gulf citizens... [In fact,] it was the initial motivation for creating the GCC, which was established over three decades ago in order to [ultimately] reach the stage of full unity."
However, Oman has bluntly rejected the call for the Gulf Union, to the extent of threatening to leave the six-member GCC if the plan goes ahead. Oman has been joined by United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar in opposing the Union. Bahrain has sided with the Saudis, while the remaining GCC member, Kuwait, has remained silent.
Unlike Saudi Arabia, where the predominant form of Islam is Sunni Islam, the predominant form in Oman is Ibadi, which is a distinct form of Islam practiced mostly in eastern and northern Africa. Thus, Oman is not closely tied to either Saudi Arabia and Iran from a religious sect point of view, and sees itself as a mediator between the two countries. Memri and Al-Jazeera
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Dec-13 World View -- Arab states split over issue of Iran's rapprochement with the West thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Dec-2013)
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Lebanon soldier fires at Israeli vehicle across the border
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Syrian government aircraft have dropped at least 25 barrel bombs on neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo, targeting three districts and a school, killing dozens of civilians and at least 15 children. A "barrel bomb" is a barrel containing hundreds of pounds of explosives, designed to cause massive damage on impact.
Syria's civil war began almost three years ago, when Syria's psychopathic president began slaughtering and massacring peaceful protesters, using heavy weapons supplied by Russia, sending missiles into school dormitories, flattening entire neighborhoods of innocent women and children, even using chemical weapons. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed, and millions have been forced to leave their homes and flee to neighboring countries.
Al-Assad's genocidal campaign has been made possible by massive military support from Russia and Iran. President Barack Obama has been complicit, and made things much worse by lying and saying that use of chemical weapons was a "red line," and then flip-flopping, essentially turning American foreign policy over to Russia.
The massive slaughter of Sunnis by Syria's Shia/Alawite president, has turned Syria into a magnet for jihadists from countries as far away as Pakistan, Algeria and Russia. Sectarian Sunni versus Shia tensions are growing throughout the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia apparently providing funding to Sunni groups within Syria. Furthermore, with millions of refugees continuing to flood other countries, the entire Mideast has become politically and economically unstable. Thanks to the policies particularly of Russia and the United States, the instability of several Mideast countries could spiral into a war at any time.
Sunday's use of barrel bombs to destroy entire neighborhoods and schools filled with innocent civilians shows that the massive slaughter by genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad is far from over. BBC and Reuters
The border between Lebanon and Israel has been extremely tense for decades, particularly since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since then, the United Nations has had a peacekeeping force patrolling the border, and even a minor incident becomes international news. On Sunday evening, a Lebanese soldier fired six or seven shots at an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) vehicle that was patrolling on Israel's side of the border. So far, the IDF believes that the sniping was done by a soldier acting alone from the Lebanese Armed Forces. Jerusalem Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Dec-13 World View -- Syria's air force drops 'barrel bombs' on Aleppo neighborhoods thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Dec-2013)
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New bombings in Mali mean France will have to stay longer
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A Chinese naval vessel confronted the USS Cowpens, a guided missile warship, in international waters on December 6, forcing the U.S. vessel to take evasive action to avoid a collision. The Chinese action was deliberate, and was apparently taken to prevent the U.S. warship from conducting surveillance on China's aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. The confrontation took place in the South China Sea in international waters. China is claiming territory in the South China Sea that has historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, while Japan itself is facing daily military confrontations with China around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. However, the December 6 confrontation occurred entirely in international waters, according to U.S. officials. CNN and Free Beacon
A bomb explosion killed and wounded several United Nations peacekeepers on Saturday in the supposedly secure town of Kidal in northern Mali. At the same time, at least 80 Islamic radicals carried out an attack on a Tuareg camp in Teringuite, also in northern Mali, with unknown casualties. These twin assaults are the worst in northern Mali in recent weeks. France sent 4,000 troops to Mali earlier this year, and had hoped to have them all home by now. Instead, France is going to find it difficult to leave Mali and, at the same time, France has just sent 1,600 new troops to Central American Republic, where the violence between Christians and Muslims continues to spiral out of control. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Dec-13 World View -- China naval vessel confronts U.S. warship in international waters thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Dec-2013)
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European governments fund terrorism through ransom payments
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In North Korea you can be executed for sneezing the wrong way, and indeed dozens of officials have been purged since the child dictator Kim Jong-un came to power in 2011. Nonetheless, the sudden fall from grace and execution of Jang Song-thaek is so spectacular and so public that it's feeding speculation that it signals a major power struggle between competing factions in the child dictator's government. (See "11-Dec-13 World View -- Purge of Kim Jong-un's uncle signals N. Korean 'reign of terror'")
The following is pretty funny. These are excerpts from the official report on the execution of Jang:
"Upon hearing the report on [Jang], the service personnel and people throughout the country broke into angry shouts that a stern judgment of the revolution should be meted out to the anti-party, counter-revolutionary factional elements. Against the backdrop of these shouts rocking the country, a special military tribunal ... was held ... against traitor for all ages Jang Song Thaek. ...All the crimes committed by the accused were proved in the course of hearing and were admitted by him. ...
However, despicable human scum Jang, who was worse than a dog, perpetrated thrice-cursed acts of treachery in betrayal of such profound trust and warmest paternal love shown by the party and the leader for him. ...
The era and history will eternally record and never forget the shuddering crimes committed by Jang Song Thaek, the enemy of the party, revolution and people and heinous traitor to the nation."
Analysts are mixed about the meaning of Jang's spectacular fall. Some say that it signals a power struggle within Kim's family, and possibly a coup. Others say that it means that Kim is becoming more powerful and confident, to the point where feels he can get rid of even family members whom he dislikes.
Whichever is true, the fear is a period of instability in North Korea. Even worse, Kim may precipitate a crisis with South Korea or the U.S. in order to justify further purges within his government. Examples of previous crises precipitated by Kim or his father are the shooting of long-range missiles earlier this year, nuclear missile tests, and the sinking in 2010 of the South Korean warship Cheonan with a torpedo, killing 46 people. Washington Times and CNN
Britain's Foreign Office is calling on other European governments to stop making large money payments to terrorists in return for the release hostages. No specific countries were named, but it's thought that the Foreign Office was referring to France, Spain and Italy. France is believed to have paid Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) $20 million to free four French hostages in Niger, though the French government denies it. Earlier this year, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) took delivery of $22 million in cash in exchange for Swiss, Austrian and Finnish hostages. Spain allegedly paid 12 million euros to free a hostage in Mali. Ransom money is a major funding source for terrorist groups, who use the money for everything from food and electricity to chemicals for explosives. The Foreign Office is asking other countries to stop making ransom payments, but governments find it difficult to resist pressure from kidnap victims' relatives. BBC and Daily Mail (London)
Gunmen shot dead a polio worker and two policemen on duty to protect a polio vaccination team in two separate attacks on Friday. The shootings were the latest in a series of attacks by militants targeting polio teams. The Taliban have imposed an "official ban' on polio vaccinations, claiming that the polio vaccines are a stealth way to prevent Muslims from having more children, and they've been murdering doctors and nurses who administer the vaccines. The result is that polio is endemic in Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan and Nigeria.
India has become the first country to implement a ban on travelers from Pakistan who have not been immunized against polio.
Pakistani travelers will not be allowed to enter India after January 30, 2014. According to an Indian official:
"Any Pakistani wishing to travel to India has to provide a certificate of vaccination as we want to keep the Indian nation safe from the crippling disease."
Other countries are considering measures as well. The Lancet Medical Journal, has warned that the Pakistani polio virus could become a threat to Europe. In January 2012, 21 children in a Chinese province were affected by polio, and it was confirmed that the virus strain had been transmitted from Pakistan after its DNA was analyzed. Pakistani polio has been found in Egypt, Palestine, Israel and Syria. The Nation (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Dec-13 World View -- India announces travel restrictions as Pakistan polio workers are killed thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Dec-2013)
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Greece begins to confiscate bank accounts of tax evaders
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Thousands of ethnic Chechens have come from Chechnya, Russia's southern province, or from Europe, and have gone to Syria to fight against the army of Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar al-assad. Russian officials are finally beginning to worry that these Chechens, battle-hardened from the war in Syria, will return to Russia and join Sunni militants who are fighting violent separatist movements in the Caucasus. According to Chechnya's governor Ramzan Kadyrov:
"Thousands of militants are in Syria who pose a grave danger to our country, according to the Russian security services. ...[The] danger from the Syrian militants has never been a secret. Even a blind person cannot fail to notice it. Ordinary people discuss it. High-ranking officials openly talk about it. We know how many human casualties stem from the inability [of the government] to strike terrorists and Wahhabis preventively. That is why the law enforcement agencies and the leadership of the republic are undertaking a range of preventive measures."
Russia has brought this violent blowback on itself, by providing enormous amounts of the heavy weapons to the Shia/Alawite al-Assad to use to exterminate Sunni women and children in Syria. This has caused Sunni jihadists to declare that it's their sacred duty to help the oppressed people in Syria, making Syria the center of jihadist activity in the Mideast, and inflaming sectarian tensions throughout the region. Jamestown and Reuters and Ria Novosti
The purpose of France's military intervention in the Central African Republic was to halt a humanitarian crisis caused by Muslim Séléka rebel on Christians. Christians have been formed their own anti-Balaka rebel groups, targeting Muslims with revenge attacks. France now has 1600 troops in CAR, mostly in the capital city Bangui, trying to bring the violence under control, mostly by disarming the Séléka fighters. But in doing so, they've been unable to prevent widespread looting and anti-Balaka attacks targeting the Muslim community. The Muslims are accusing the French troops, who are themselves mostly Christian of targeting the Muslims and ignoring attacks by Christians on Muslims.
"Accomplices!" "Traitors!" "Come and see the bodies!""The French are organising the genocide. They are with the Christians."
The French military intervention, aided by American transport vehicles, seems to be having little effect on the violence in Bangui, and even less effect in other cities where there are no French troops.
Violence is increasing, and this conflict is showing signs of spiralling into a full-scale generational crisis war. However, I'm unable to do a generational analysis, because I'm unable to find any details of previous conflicts and relations between Christians and Muslims in CAR. If any reader, possibly someone with access to French colonial histories, could point me in the direction of such information, I would appreciate it. AFP and BBC
Greece has issued its first order to confiscate the bank deposits of a company that has allegedly evaded taxes, and owes an estimated 100,000 euros in taxes. The company, which was not named, is active in the sectors of wholesale commerce and computer trading. Unfortunately, it turns out that there is no money in firm's bank accounts, which I suppose is what was to be expected.
Greece will now issue dozens more orders for confiscation of bank accounts. For those that have insufficient bank accounts, bank accounts will remain frozen for ten years, and any money obtained from selling assets will be confiscated immediately. Out of 62 billion euros that are owed, Greek authorities expect to collect no more than 18 billion, the rest being uncollectable. Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Dec-13 World View -- Russia prepares for Chechen jihadists' return from Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Dec-2013)
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Hong Kong activates its pandemic preparedness plan over H7N9 bird flu
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A mutation in a new strain of H7N9 bird flu that's infecting people in China is making it resistant to Roche's Tamiflu, the principal drug used to treat people infected with the virus. The virus spreads readily among certain types of birds, but transmission from bird to human or from human to human is "fairly inefficient," according to experts. However, when it does spread to a human, it's often lethal.
Hong Kong, a city of 7.18 million people, is activating a pandemic preparedness plan, after two new cases of the new strain of bird flu were found in Shenzhen, an hour's train ride from Hong Kong, and a popular day-trip destination for shopping and dining. Reuters and Bloomberg
The United States and Britain are suspending shipments of "non-lethal military aid" to the Syrian rebels opposed to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The decision to end this aid came when the Islamic Front last week stormed and took control of several warehouses filled with American supplies.
The Islamic Front is described as a coalition of conservative Islamist groups who are not themselves linked to al-Qaeda, but who coordinate activities al-Qaeda linked units, including Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS).
Under U.S. law, non-lethal aid can include communications equipment, medical supplies, intelligence assistance and body armor. It's not believed that cutting off this aid will make any difference, since al-Assad massacring civilians with tanks, artillery, missiles, warplane bombing runs, and even chemical weapons, much of which has been supplied by the Russians, who are complicit in this genocidal slaughter.
The Russian policy has been a disaster, as it's drawn jihadists from as far away as Pakistan, Algerian and Dagestan to fight in Syria, causing sectarian tensions to surge throughout the Mideast. The Russians are responsible for the creation of Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIL, by supplying weapons to a genocidal monster. McClatchy and AP
Because of increased fighting among rival Syrian opposition groups in northern Syria, all non-lethal assistance has been suspended, and Turkey has closed the border with Syria. According to a Turkish spokesman:
"Efforts to receive more information were not successful since yesterday [Tuesday] morning, but as of this morning [Wednesday] the issue has become clear. The clashes continued throughout last night.“We are following the developments closely and if there are more we will inform the public. At this point, no pedestrians or vehicles are allowed to cross [at the gate]."
According to the latest information, the Islamic Front fighters have taken control of the bases used by the "moderate" Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is favored by the United States and the West. Zaman (Istanbul) and CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. and Britain halt 'non-lethal aid' to Syria's rebels thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Dec-2013)
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Canada and Russia to compete for control of the North Pole
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Jang Song-thaek, the 67-year-old uncle of the child dictator Kim Jong-un, has been removed from power, and that two of his closest associates were executed in public last month, as we reported last week. It was unconfirmed at that time, but now Jang's humiliation has been publicly televised, showing two green-uniformed guards grabbing him by the armpits and pulling him away from a Workers' Party meeting. He was denounced for faction-building, womanizing, gambling and other acts as dozens of former comrades watched.
South Korea's president Park Geun-hye said that Jang's highly dramatic purge signals a "reign of terror":
"I think we are at a very important point in history. Situations on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia are changing rapidly, and we are in a situation where we can't lower our guard against North Korean threats and changes in its situation.North Korea is currently engaged in a reign of terror while carrying out massive purges in order to consolidate Kim Jong-un's power. The South-North relations could become more unstable in the future."
Jang commanded about 200,000 North Korean troops who reported to the Workers' Party Administration Department, which he headed. His connections extended into the army-controlled trading companies that procure most of North Korea's hard currency by trading across the border with China and elsewhere. Jang's purge is raising alarms in Beijing, where Jang maintained strong relations with political and trade officials. The loss of Jang means that China has lost a powerful contact within the North Korean leadership, and also a source of many North Korean resources, including metal and coal. Yonhap (Seoul) and Malaysia Sun and LA Times
Canada claims that it's just defending Santa Claus by filing papers with the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf claiming regions of the seabed and the undersea bed that include the North Pole. Russia's president Vladimir Putin responded by ordering Russia's military to step up its presence in the Arctic, and to deploy military bases and military units in the Arctic. Whoever has control of the North Pole also has control of the abundant oil and natural deposits in the region. Canadian Broadcasting and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Dec-13 World View -- Purge of Kim Jong-un's uncle signals N. Korean 'reign of terror' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Dec-2013)
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Vladimir Putin 'liquidates' Russia's Ria Novosti news agency
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A fatal accident killing a 33-year-old Indian immigrant who was knocked down by a private bus has sparked a spontaneous large riot on Monday in Singapore in the "Little India" section, which is mostly populated by migrants from India and Bangladesh. Police arrested 27 people, mostly Indian nationals, among the 400 people who rioted.
These are the largest immigrant riots since the 1969, since there were massive, bloody riots in Singapore. According to Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean:
"I want to make very clear that the government will not tolerate such lawless behaviour. I have asked the police to investigate the matter thoroughly and deal with all aspects of this incident and all persons involved strictly, firmly and fairly according to our law."
Rioting in Singapore is punishable by up to seven years in prison plus caning. (Yes, caning.)
However, immigration is a continuing issue in the city-state. In February, more than 4,000 indigenous Singaporeans staged a rally, one of Singapore's largest ever. They were angered by a government population white paper that showed that the population of immigrants was growing much faster than the population of Singaporeans, thanks to a rapidly declining birth rate.
According to the January, 2013, white paper:
"Singaporeans form the core of our society and the heart of our nation. To be a strong and cohesive society, we must have a strong Singaporean core.Strong families are the bedrock of our society, through which we pass on our values and sense of belonging from one generation to the next. We may have diverse geographical and ethnic backgrounds, but we are all Singaporean because we share certain key values and aspirations, including meritocracy, a fair and just society, and respect for one another’s culture within a broad common space where all interact and bond."
Channel News Asia (Singapore) and AFP 17-Feb-2013 and Singapore population white paper (PDF)
The U.S. military will fly African Union troops into Central African Republic, responding to a request by France. Two U.S. military C-17 aircraft will fly about 850 troops from Burundi into Central African Republic by Tuesday. According to Pentagon spokesman Carl Woog, the U.S. may provide additional military resources:
"The United States is joining the international community in this effort because of our belief that immediate action is required to avert a humanitarian and human rights catastrophe."
The situation in C.A.R. is quickly worsening, according to aid group Mercy Corps which, like all non-governmental organizations, wants more money from the U.S. and other "wealthy" nations:
"The situation in Central African Republic is declining rapidly in terms of security, which is leading to a humanitarian crisis that will continue to augment and become larger in scale unless the international community intervenes now."
More than 400,000 people have been displaced since so-called Séléka militias -- many of them Muslims from neighboring Chad and Sudan -- seized power in March, unleashing a wave of rapes, massacres and looting on the majority Christian population. The Christians have formed so-called anti-Balaka militias and are performing revenge attacks on Muslims. Some 400 people have died since Thursday in the capital Bangui alone. The fear is that the sectarian violence will spread throughout the country, leading a situation like the Rwanda genocide in 1994. Reuters and AFP
Russia's president Vladimir Putin took one more step on Monday to return Russia to a Soviet-style dictatorship, when it was announced that the Ria Novosti news agency would be "liquidated," and merged with the more compliant Russia Today. Ria Novosti is state owned, but it has angered Putin supporters by trying to present a relatively balanced news coverage, occasionally presenting Putin or the Kremlin in a less than favorable light. Ria Novosti presented fairly unbiased coverage of the 2012 anti-Putin protests in Moscow, and more recently of the pro-Europe protests in Ukraine.
The new news agency will be headed by Dmitry Kiselyov, who is vitriolically anti-American and pro-Putin, and once said that homosexuals should be banned from giving blood and that when they die, their hearts should be "buried or incinerated as unsuitable to prolong someone's life." Ria Novosti and Telegraph (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. to help France in Central African Republic military intervention thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Dec-2013)
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Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi gains in India's election
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For the second weekend in a row, hundreds of thousands of anti-Russian Ukrainians filled Independence Square in Kiev to denounce pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovich's flip-flop and subsequent refusal to sign a trade agreement with the European Union, instead succumbing to pressure and extortion from Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who is demanding that Ukraine join the Russian-led Customs Union.
On Sunday, the protesters performed the symbolic gesture of tearing down the statue of Vladimir Lenin (Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov), considered by many to be the father of Russian communism and a leader of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. The statue was broken into pieces with a large sledgehammer, and everyone in the crowd sought to take home a prized "piece of Lenin." The move is certain to infuriate both the largely Russian-speaking eastern half of Ukraine, as well as officials in Moscow.
The leader of the pro-Russian Communist Party said:
"Destroying the Lenin monument in Kiev is not just an act of vandalism. It is a sign that organizers of the protests are not for the European values, but rather for hate, fear and destruction of the state of Ukraine."
There is growing concern that pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich will invite Russian military forces into Ukraine, rather than allow the anti-Russian protesters to perpetrate a coup. AP and CNN
The United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly on Friday to give to Jordan the Security Council seat that Saudi Arabia had rejected in October. ( "19-Oct-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia shocks U.N. by rejecting Security Council seat") The Saudi decision was based on accusations of hypocrisy, for the U.N. allowing Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to kill and displace million of civilians with impunity, particularly after President Barack Obama's flip-flop on Syria's chemical weapons.
Jordan generally agrees with Saudi Arabia on most issues, and so Jordan is expected to follow the same policies on the Security Council. However, there are now 600,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan, putting an enormous strain on its resources, and so it's expected that Jordan will cause the Security Council to focus more on the Syrian refugee issue. AFP and Reuters
India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made strong electoral gains in Sunday's election, trouncing the ruling Congress Party headed by the current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The elections for prime minister will be held next year.
The BJP party leader is Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist. ( "15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister") Hindu nationalism is controversial in India because opponents associate it with "Hindutva violence," originally targeting British colonizers, but recently targeting Muslims. Modi himself became associated with Hindutva violence in 2002, when he appeared to be complicit in violence against Muslims. Hostility between the Hindu and Muslim populations has been a growing trend since the 1970s, and Modi has become extremely popular, either despite or because of his Hindutva connection. Indian Express and The News (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine anti-Russian protesters tear down Lenin statue in Kiev thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Dec-2013)
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France asks for help, as it becomes embroiled in C.A.R.'s war
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You never know what nonsense is going to come out of a meeting of 159 politicians like the meeting of the World Trade Organization in Bali this week. In between sunnin' and surfin', the representatives of 159 companies came up with an agreement that WTO chief Roberto Azevedo described as "historic," but which is little more than a list of promises that will never be fulfilled. They had to come up with something, because the WTO has accomplished exactly NOTHING since it was founded in 1995, and people were saying that if another proposed agreement collapsed, then it might mean the end of the WTO itself, and we know that politicians don't want any bureaucracy to end, especially one that sends them for paid vacations at top-notch resorts like Bali. That's why WTO members roared and thumped desks as the deal was approved.
Still, the major disagreement that had to be overcome was an interesting one, having to do with "food security." India has a huge population, including many who are hungry and in poverty, and so India buys up rice and wheat and stockpiles it for times of need. But according to WTO rules, stockpiling rice and wheat is a way of subsidizing them, and any form of subsidy is against WTO rules.
There were other disagreements as well. Cuba, supported by Bolivia, Nicaragua and Venezuela, had threatened to walk out of the talks unless the agreement contained language condemning the 50-year-old American embargo of Cuba.
In the end, all of those difficult problems were swept under the rug and postponed. The deal that was signed calls on countries to lower their tariffs and trade barriers, and when a country signed the agreement, it was promise to do that ... some day. They're claiming that this "historic" agreement will boost global trade and the world economy by $1 trillion, but that's just the usual hot air. The agreement does so little that we might imagine that at least it won't do too much HARM to the global economy. In the meantime, the politicians' paid vacations at Bali-like resorts have been saved, and that's what's important. Times of India and Deutsche Welle
French troops continued to pour into Central African Republic on Saturday, around concerns that the war between Muslim Séléka rebels and Christian anti-Balaka rebels would turn into a full-scale genocide. According to president François Hollande, France has 1600 troops in CAR by Saturday evening.
France sent 4,000 troops to Mali earlier this year, in an operation described as vital to keep Mali from become a new Afghanistan-style stronghold for armed Islamist groups. The intervention in CAR is described as a humanitarian operation designed to avoid thousands of deaths in a bloody conflict that might resemble the genocide in Rwanda in 1994.
Intervention in CAR promises to be very expensive, and Hollande is requesting international aid. According to Hollande:
"Europe can play its part. For Europe to ensure its own defence, Africa must be able to ensure its own. Our interests are linked. Terrorism knows no borders."
Hollande hopes that Britain, Germany and other European Union countries will contribute, but so far they haven't expressed any enthusiasm. However, the African Union has promised to increase the size of its own force to 6,000, from its current level of 2,500. This situation is showing all the signs of something that will get a lot worse for a long time. AFP and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Dec-13 World View -- World trade agreement permits India to stockpile rice and wheat thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(8-Dec-2013)
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'Al-Qaeda in Syria' has become official
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Hundreds of bodies are littering the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, as French troops began to arrive on Friday in their former colony. France's deployment was sped up out of fear that the the situation would completely spiral out of control. Some 400,000 people have already fled their homes to escape the fighting. The fighting began last year when a Muslim group of militias called Séléka staged a coup, installed a new president, and then continued attacking Christians. The Christians have now formed their own "anti-Balaka" militias. The French troops, along with troops from the African Union, are patrolling in Bangui, but there are no troops to control fighting in other towns. According to the CIA Factbook, the religious breakdown of C.A.R. is: indigenous beliefs 35%, Protestant 25%, Roman Catholic 25%, Muslim 15%. Reuters
U.S. vice president Joe Biden, in statements made during a visit to South Korea on Friday, said that America always keeps its promises, and that the U.S. was rejecting China's announced air defense identification zone (ADIZ):
"I want to make one thing absolutely clear. President Obama's decision to rebalance to the Pacific basin is not in question. ..The United States never says anything it does not do. [It has] never been a good bet to bet against America ... and America will continue to place its bet on South Korea."
This is kind of laughable, in view President Obama's huge flip-flops in the Mideast, which many people are describing as outsourcing America's foreign policy to Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
In a later statement, Biden said:
"I was very clear we do not recognize the zone. It will have no effect on America's operations. Just ask my general. None. Zero."
Some Koreans are expressing concerns that the U.S. is softening its position on this.
In another statement, Biden said that the U.S. would not tolerate a nuclear North Korea. Once again, this is laughable, since North Korea has been "nuclear" for several years.
In the meantime, the South Koreans have taken their own steps: They're expanding their own ADIZ, and they're refusing to recognize China's demands, sending warplanes and airlines into China's ADIZ without notifying China's military. Yonhap (Seoul) and VOA
Ayman al-Zawahiri and the main al-Qaeda leadership in Afghanistan-Pakistan is declaring that Jabhat Al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda linked fighters in Syria, is now an official part of al-Qaeda's global network. Concurrently, al-Zawahiri is sending cadres of operatives to Syria, to offer ideological guidance, military expertise and training, organizational consultation, and so forth.
For months I've been reporting that Syria has become a magnet for Sunni jihadists from regions as far away as Pakistan, Algeria and Dagestan. This is the next step in that process, as Syria and Iraq become a major center for jihadist activity in the Mideast.
And once again, I have to identify where the fault lies. Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad is a genocidal monster who has used heavy weapons and even chemical weapons to kill hundreds of thousands of Sunni women, children and other civilians, and has driven millions of people from their homes. Russia and Iran are actively contributing to this genocide by supplying weapons and soldiers to al-Assad. This has been an absolutely disastrous policy by Russia and Iran, with the full support and cooperation of President Barack Obama. Memri and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Dec-13 World View -- Bodies pile up in Central African Republic as French arrive thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(7-Dec-2013)
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U.S. prosecutors charge 49 Russian diplomats with health care fraud
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Fearing a massive genocide, the 15-member U.N. Security Council on Thursday voted unanimously to allow French and African forces "to take all necessary measures," including military action, to protect citizens and restore order in the Central African Republic. Sectarian violence between Christians and Muslims has been building since March of this year, when a Muslim rebel coalition called Séléka overthrew President Francois Bozize and installed their own leader Michel Djotodia as interim president. However, the political coup didn't end the violence. Séléka continue attacking perceived Christian supporters of the ousted president, and Christian self-defense militias have sprung up and are launching retaliatory attacks, sometimes against Muslim civilians.
France's President François Hollande has been leading the effort to get U.N. Security Council approval for military action, and France is set to increase its fighting force in C.A.R. to at least 1,000 soldiers, at a time when it has sent thousands of soldiers to Mali, earlier this year.
The interventions in the two former French colonies are raising questions over whether France is slipping back to interventionist, neo-colonial policies known as "Françafrique" -- meddling in the affairs of its former colonies. But the threat of genocide in C.A.R. is highly emotional for France, which was accused of supporting the Hutu regime that massacred the Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994. In any case, France does not want to be accused of looking the other way as Muslims and Christians tear each other apart in the C.A.R. France 24 and NPR
The mutual xenophobia between Christians and Muslims in Russia is resulting in a recent sharp increase in extremist acts, particularly in the North Caucasus, Russia's southern provinces. A negative image of Muslims has been firmly established in Russia. A man with a beard or a woman wearing the hijab are increasingly perceived in society as extremists, and that attitude is creating a backlash among Muslims. Attacks on churches and mosques have been on the increase. For example in Tatarstan, there was an arson attack on a mosque in August, followed by eight reprisal arson attacks on Churches. The Russian Orthodox Church is contributing to the problem by trying to extend its influence by building churches in mainly Muslim regions, where the churches are not wanted, and where there is almost no attendance anyway.
Historically, for centuries, there have been three regions where the Christian and Muslim worlds have had their bloodiest and most genocidal confrontations: the Caucasus, the Crimea and the Balkans (three regions which, like the Bronx and the Hague, cannot be properly referenced without the word "the"). Josef Stalin was particularly ruthless towards the Muslims in the Caucasus, with mass executions and mass forced relocations during and after World War II. Now, as the generations of survivors of those genocidal actions have all disappeared, tensions are growing among younger generations of Christians and Muslims, and the Caucasus is headed for a new major war between the two groups. Jamestown
U.S. prosecutors have charged 49 current and former Russian diplomats and their family members with participating in a scheme to fraudulently get $1.5 million in Medicaid health benefits by lying about their income. The charges say the defendants obtained letters to prove their false incomes from officials at the Russian U.N. mission, including a former counselor and a former second secretary, as well as from former top officials at the Consulate General of the Russian Federation in New York and the Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in the USA. The diplomats have diplomatic immunity and so cannot be arrested, though they can be asked to leave the country. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Dec-13 World View -- France reverts to neo-colonialism, returns to Central African Republic thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Dec-2013)
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Der Spiegel predicts a stock market and real estate crash
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Lebanon's government has ordered that Tripoli be placed under army control for six months. The army is charged with stopping the proxy war that's going on in Tripoli between Shia/Alawite and Sunni citizens who are, respectively, siding for and against Bashar al-Assad. At least 100 people have been killed this year, mostly in gunfights between the two sects, and the number has surged recently. Al-Jazeera and BBC
Hezbollah commander Hassan al-Laqqis was shot to death by gunmen with silencers as he arrived home late on Tuesday evening in Beirut, Lebanon. This was a new shock for the Shia terrorist militia organization, because al-Laqqis was supposed to be well protected from such attacks. Hezbollah reflexively blamed Israel for the assassination, though Israeli officials have denied having anything to do with it.
Since April 30, when Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad gave a televised speech committing Hezbollah's soldiers to enter Syria and fight on the side of Syria's Shia/Alawite genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad, sectarian (Sunni versus Shia) has been surging throughout the Mideast. (See "27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast")
It was just two weeks ago that two suicide bombers attacked the Iranian embassy in Beirut where it was also supposed to be super-secure. In that case as well, Iran reflexively blamed Israel ("The Islamic Republic of Iran takes the Zionists and their mercenaries responsible for this action."), but since then, both Iran and Hezbollah have acknowledged that the perpetrators were Sunni jihadists, possibly funded and supported by Saudi Arabia, who have essentially declared war on Hezbollah since their April 30 announcement. ( "20-Nov-13 World View -- Lebanon bombing sharply escalates sectarian Mideast conflict") It's most likely that Sunni jihadists were the perpetrators of Tuesday evening's assassination, and it's possible that the assassination is related to the surging violence in Tripoli. Daily Star (Beirut) and Jerusalem Post
Russian officials are reporting that the number of extremism-related crimes in the North Caucasus, Russia's southern provinces, rose by 40% in 2013, compared to 2012, with the greatest increase in Dagestan. Over 100 servicemen died and more than 300 were wounded in attacks in the first nine months of 2013, while over 200 militants were killed and more than 250 arrested, according to Russian government figures. According to a prosecutor:
"Unemployment and the absence of stable sources of income for a significant portion of the population result in citizens’ involvement in bandit groups of extremist origin and also create a breeding ground for attempts to use ethnic tensions to fuel ethnic strife."
Russian officials blame unfavorable economic conditions and rigid clan systems for the Islamization and radicalization of young people. Jamestown
Der Spiegel is possibly the most mainstream of the mainstream news media in Europe. It's well to the left of center, and usually applauds even the most dangerous radical policies advocated by far leftists like Paul Krugman. But today, Der Spiegel is predicting a crash:
"Central banks around the world are pumping trillions into the economy. The goal is to stimulate growth, but their actions are also driving up prices in the real estate and equities markets. The question is no longer whether there will be a crash, but when."
By the way, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations) on Friday (December 2) morning was 18.72, which is astronomical by historic standards, indicating that stocks are far overpriced, and the stock market bubble is worse than ever. Der Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Dec-13 World View -- Hezbollah commander assassinated in increasingly violent Lebanon thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Dec-2013)
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The question is, which lies can you live with?
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As tensions continue to be high after the recent announcement by China of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) encompassing much of the East China Sea, including regions belonging to Japan, American vice president Joe Biden is renewing the U.S. commitment to Japan. The Chinese are demanding that any aircraft entering the ADIZ must provide flight plans and details to China's military in advance, or risk encountering "defensive measures" from China's military. American passenger planes are complying with the demands to avoid an incident that would risk passengers' lives, but American warplanes are entering the ADIZ on a daily basis without complying. (See "30-Nov-13 World View -- China vs U.S. air confrontations are now a daily occurrence")
Meeting Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe, Biden said the following:
"The U.S. is deeply concerned by the attempt to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea. This action has raised regional tension and increased the risk of accident and miscalculation.The world should not forget that our alliances have been critical to the stability that has made this region’s remarkable progress possible. And I told the prime minister that we will remain steadfast in our alliance commitment."
China Daily, the Chinese Communist Party's organ, responded to Biden as follows, in an article entitled "Facts for Biden's reference":
"If the US is truly committed to lowering tensions in the region, it must first stop acquiescing to Tokyo's dangerous brinkmanship. It must stop emboldening belligerent Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to constantly push the envelope of Japan's encroachments and provocations.Most important of all, Biden needs to be reminded that Japan holds the key to peacefully solving the East China Sea dispute, because it is the Abe administration's recalcitrant denial of the existence of a dispute that has prevented Beijing and Tokyo from conducting meaningful communication and crisis control. From the very beginning, Beijing has demonstrated a consistent preference for shelving differences."
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) say that it's likely that Jang Song-thaek, the elderly uncle of the child dictator Kim Jong-un, has been removed from power, and that two of his closest associates were executed in public last month, for corruption and activities that countered the stance of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK).
It's almost impossible to figure out what's going on in North Korea, but it's being suggested that this is a major purge that will result in a generational change. From the beginning when Kim Jong-un came to power, Jang has been the adviser and moderating influence who would help guide Kim as he gained experience. The purge could mean a major period of instability for North Korea, and the disappearance of Jang could mean that there's no one around to keep the child dictator from doing something really stupid. Yonhap (Seoul) and Reuters
Gun manufacturers are reporting a 30-50% surge in firearms sales in 2013 over 2012. Furthermore, the surge in sales and profits is motivating research into better firearms, resulting in a surge of gun-related patents, the highest since 1977. Recent patents are for voice-command shooting, rifle scopes and a new trigger system.
President Obama and his anti-gun campaigns have triggered a deep well of fury among millions of gun owners nationwide. People on the left that I've discussed this with do not have a clue how deep these feelings go, and how angry gun owners are for being blamed and punished for something that is demonstrably not their fault.
As I've suggested in the past, the National Rifle Association (NRA) should really give President Obama an award for his spectacular success in helping the gun industry, something that the gun industry could never quite do for itself. Bloomberg
I love this.
This is from L.Z. Granderson, a strong supporter of President Obama, on Obama's handling of Obamacare:
"All Americans know politicians lie. The question is, which lies can you live with? And, time and time again, Americans have said we can deal with the lies that President Obama tells us because we believe in his heart, he has the best interest for the American people."
This reminds me of the statement that I quoted many times from retired Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Jüncker during one of Greece's financial crises: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie." I guess President Obama thinks it's VERY serious. Real Clear Politics
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Dec-13 World View -- Vice President Joe Biden backs Japan as he heads for China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Dec-2013)
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What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In yesterday's report, "2-Dec-13 World View -- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum" I indicated that I was puzzled about what the anti-government Thai-Chinese activist Suthep Thaugsuban wanted, when he said that he wants "to return power to the people." If he meant the resignation of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, the result would be a new election, and Thai-Thai indigenous people, who make up the vast majority of the population, would simply elect a new Thaksin Shinawatra ally.
Well, on Monday the solution to the conundrum was revealed. Suthep is demanding that Yingluck resign, and that a new "People's Council" select the next prime minister. Presumably, this People's Council would be packed with Thai-Chinese proponents. This is the only way the indigenous people can be defeated in an election. However, it doesn't seem to me that this will "return power to the people" in any way.
Yingluck responded: "Anything I can do to make people happy, I am willing to do... but as prime minister, what I can do must be under the constitution."
Thailand is in a very dangerous situation. The market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite do not wish to give up any power, but they're vastly outnumbered by the dark-skinned Thai-Thai who do most of the menial labor. If Suthep succeeds in getting his "People's Council," and he controls the election of the next PM, then expect a new wave of anti-government protests again in a few months, this time by the "red shirt" Thai-Thai. Bangkok Post
At least 100,000 anti-government protesters packed Independence Square ("the Maidan") in Kiev, Ukraine, on Sunday, demanding the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovich. More than 200 people were hurt when police used tear gas and flash grenades, after some marchers tried to storm a government building. Video has emerged showing police brutally beating protesters and journalists with clubs. The riots continued through the night and into Monday evening, forcing riot police to line up to protect the office of the president.
The riots were triggered when Yanukovich did a highly visible flip-flop on signing a trade agreement with the European Union, evidently because of pressure by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, as we reported two weeks ago.
The riots are reminiscent of the "Orange Revolution" of 2004, when the same Viktor Yanukovich was forced to leave office by the same kinds of riots, when hundreds of thousands of people demanded his resignation. (See "East Ukraine threatens secession, splitting the country in two" from 2004.)
What the 2004 riots and the 2013 riots have in common is that they are a clash between two ethnic groups. The majority of the population are ethnic Ukrainians, occupying most of the country, in the western part of Ukraine. The minority group are ethnic Russians, occupying the east and south, descendants of ethnic Russians who were sent there by Stalin after World War II in order to "Russify" Ukraine.
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I took another look at my 2004 article on the Orange Revolution. It contains the map shown above of the results of the 2004 presidential election. The indigenous Ukrainian candidate (Yushchenko) won in the western Ukrainian provinces, while Yanukovich won in the pro-Russian eastern and southern provinces.
Yanukovich had promised repeatedly that he would sign the association agreement with the EU, and Ukrainians were eagerly anticipating what they imagined (probably unrealistically) as a big economic boost from having new European markets from their products. But Putin threatened to close off Russia to many Ukrainian exports, which would have hurt Ukraine more than they would have gained from the EU asociation. Putin desperately wants Ukraine to remain within Russia's sphere of influence, and particularly wants Ukraine to join Russia's "Customs Union," whose other members so far are Belarus and Kazakhstan. BBC and Jamestown and VOA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Dec-2013)
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European Troika cancels bailout negotiations with Greece - again
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Sunday, the 8th day of anti-government protests, about 30,000 "yellow shirt" rioters occupied government buildings and hurled stones and petrol bombs at police, who fired back tear gas. At least four people have been killed and dozens injured. On Sunday evening, the anti-government yellow shirt leader Suthep Thaugsuban met with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and gave her a 48 hour ultimatum "to return power to the people," whatever that's supposed to mean. There was no explanation of what would happen on Tuesday, after the 48 hours pass.
Of all the countries that I've been writing about in the last ten years, this has been the wildest political story, involving two ethnic groups.
On the one side, you have the market-dominant "yellow shirt" light-skinned elites, also called "Thai-Chinese," since almost all of them are descendents of Chinese, comprising about 1/4 of the population, living mostly around the capital city Bangkok.
On the other side, you have the "red shirt" dark-skinned lower class indigenous people, also called "Thai-Thai," comprising about 3/4 of the population, living mostly in the northern regions of Thailand, but who come to Bangkok mostly to work in menial jobs serving the Thai-Chinese. Bangkok Post
The mathematics of the situation are pretty clear: The Thai-Thai are going to win every election if they stick together. And the person who got them to stick together was the colorful and charismatic Thaksin Shinawatra, who was elected prime minister in 2001, and re-elected in 2005. As Thaksin's government adopted economic policies that favored the Thai-Thai, at the expense of the elite Thai-Chinese, the political fault line became sharp. The army, favoring the elites, staged a bloodless coup, overthrowing the Thaksin government in 2006. Thaksin left the country, and for a while became the owner of the Manchester City Football (soccer) Club, one of the major sports clubs in Britain. Later, he went into self-imposed exile in Dubai, where he is now.
There were new elections, and a Thaksin ally, Samak Sundaravej, became prime minister, but a high court sided with the elites and removed him from office because for years he had hosted a televised cooking show. (I'm not joking.)
There were new elections, and another Thaksin ally, Somchai Wongsawat, became prime minister, but he was thrown out of office by massive anti-government protests and riots by the yellow shirt Thai-Chinese.
A Thai-Chinese ally, Abhisit Vejjajiva, finally was prime minister. But then in 2010 there were massive anti-government protests and riots by the red shirt Thai-Thai. ( "24-May-10 News -- Les Miserables of Thailand at a turning point")
If all of that isn't incredible enough, what happened next was even more incredible: Under the long-distance guidance of Thaksin, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra won the next election to become prime minister, promising to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes. ( "4-Jul-11 World View -- Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra wins decisively")
So now things have flipped back the other way again, and the yellow-shirt elites are rioting and protesting against the Yingluck government. Suthep Thaugsuban, the leader of the Thai-Chinese riots, has issued that 48-hour ultimatum, but surely he must realize that if he forces Yingluck to leave office, then the Thai-Thai will just win another election. So what does Suthep mean when he says he wants "to return power to the people"? It may mean that he wants to take power by force. BBC and Time
Thailand is following a typical pattern for a country in a generational Awakening era, following an internal civil war. Thailand's last generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing fields" civil war that climaxed in 1979. Although that war occurred on Cambodian soil, the Thai were heavily involved in a supportive role to both sides.
In the typical pattern, the two ethnic groups have a tense peace during the generational Recovery Era that immediately follows the climax of the crisis war. We're seeing a Recover Era today in Sri Lanka, following the civil war between the Sinhalese and the Tamils. During the Awakening era, political conflict between the two groups turns to low-level violence. In the years that follow, periods of violence alternate with periods of peaceful coexistence following the signing of a series of peace treaties. Each time a peace treaty is broken, the violence that follows is worse than the last time. Finally, 50-70 years after the climax of the last crisis war, there is another full-fledged civil war, and history repeats itself.
The "Troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- have canceled plans to return to Athens on Monday to resume evaluation of progress on implementing the austerity commitments that Greece has made to qualify for the 240 billion euro bailout already pledged. The latest tranche of that bailout payment has been held up for weeks because Greece still has to find another 1.2 billion euros of savings in 2014. The Troika would like Greece to lay off more public workers, foreclose on more houses with delinquent mortgages, and sell off the government-owned weapons manufacturer Hellenic Defense Systems (EAS). With negotiations put off again, Greek officials are now hoping to reach agreement with the Troika in time for the December 18 Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers. Kathimerini and Greek Reporter
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Dec-13 World View -- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Dec-2013)
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Australia faces strategic dilemma as rise of China challenges U.S.
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Because Australia's geographical location places it too far from its historic allies in terms of potential military support, Australia is facing a strategic dilemma in dealing with China's rise and America's relative decline in Asia.
On the one hand, the United States may decide to step aside and accept Chinese supremacy, while encouraging Japan, India and other countries to take on China themselves. In this case, Australia would be living in a region that is highly contested and unstable, and it would no longer be able to rely on the U.S. for support.
It's more likely that the United States will not want to give up Asian primacy, and it has already moved closer to Japan, South Korea, India and Vietnam, strengthening bilateral security and diplomatic ties. In this case, the rise of China does pose a challenge to the U.S., as China has taken increasingly belligerent actions in the South and East China Seas, and if the United States chooses to confront China in the future, this will inevitably lead to greater regional instability.
Either way, this will require Australia Defense Force (ADF) policies to support allies in high-level contingencies. The Australian government would prefer to maintain the status-quo with its present alliance, but it might respond to future developments in the Asian region by shifting the country’s strategic defense policy and the ADF’s corresponding orientation. Geopolitical Monitor
The historic IT disaster known as the Obamacare web site has been of intense interest to me, since I've been a Senior Software Engineer for decades, and I have personally participated in, witnessed, and reported on (as a technology reporter) a number of IT disasters. But even so, the size of the Obamacare web site catastrophe on October 1 still takes my breath away.
When I first heard, shortly after October 1, that there was 500 million lines of code in Healthcare.gov, I quickly rejected that figure, because it's impossible.
Going back to the development of IBM's System/360 operating system, as described in Fred Brooks' classic book, The Mythical Man-Month, the average programmer on the project wrote six lines of code per day. Of course, every programmer writes a lot more than that on SOME days, but on other days he writes zero lines of code, since he's doing testing or debugging or rewriting or documenting. So for System/360, it all averaged out to six lines per day per programmer.
So let's say that the Obamacare programmers were much better than that, and wrote 100 lines of code per day average. Let's say that there were 1000 programmers. And let's say that, over the three year period, there were about 660 business days. Then, with those generous assumptions, you get 100*1000*660 = 66,000,000 lines of code. It's simply impossible to reach 500,000,000.
And yet, the 500 million figure is apparently true. I've heard it dozens of times in the last month, and no one is denying it. Healthcare.gov apparently really does have 500 million lines of code. How is that possible?
I get a picture in my mind of 1,000 monkeys sitting a computers typing code, without worrying about whether or not it works. Given the size of the catastrophe, some variation of that must have happened.
More important than that, a code base that size is unsupportable. Health services is a rapidly changing field, and every time there's some kind of process or rule change, it will take an army of programmers to make all the necessary changes in the code base. And that assumes that all the bugs have been fixed, which is far from true. Healthcare.gov will not be fully functional at any time in the foreseeable future, if ever.
On October 1, Healthcare.gov had 500 million lines of code, and could handle six (6) simultaneous users. Facebook.com has 20 million lines of code, and handles millions of simultaneous users.
Then there's the cost. Healthcare.gov should have cost $5-10 million to implement. Take into account government corruption and incompetence, it should have cost $10-25 million. Instead, it cost $300-600 million -- let's say $500 million. How do we get to that figure? Well, assume 1000 programmers are paid an average of $100 per hour ($200,000 per year) for 8 hours per day for 660 business days: $100*1000*8*660 = $528 million. So at least that figure makes sense -- as long as you understand that the Obama administration poured half a billion dollars into the pockets of his cronies and supporters, and got exactly what he deserved with Healthcare.gov.
There have been numerous reports that the Obama administration had been informed many times, including by McKinsey & Co. in March, that Healthcare.gov was in serious trouble. And yet, just two weeks ago, on November 19, President Barack Obama said:
"I was not informed directly that the web site would not be working as the way it was supposed to. Had I been informed, I would not be going out saying, 'Boy, this is gonna be great.' You know - I'm accused of a lot of things, but I don't think I'm stupid enough to go around saying, 'This is gonna be like shopping on Amazon or Travelocity' a week before the web site opens if I thought it wasn't gonna work. So, clearly we and I did not have enough awareness about the problems in the web site."
And so, since he posed the question of how he couldn't have been that stupid, let's try to find an answer.
Once again, I have a number of personal experiences that relate to this, and the main one I'd like to relate is the most bizarre day of my professional life.
In 1985, I was doing contract programming for Northrop Corp., developing embedded software for munitions guidance systems. The project manager had to be reassigned, and I became acting manager. After being in this position for 2-3 weeks, it was clear to me that the whole project was in trouble, would slip at least three months. I told this to the program manager, and he nearly freaked out.
I was then pulled into one meeting after another, and met high-level managers that I never knew existed. Their conclusion apparently was that I was full of crap, and they decided to fire me, but they weren't sure, so they decided to let me stay on until the release date, and then they would fire me.
About a week before the release date, there was a meeting in the lab, where the lead programmer was to demonstrate the embedded system to the Corporate VP. I attended this demo, but I was ordered just to stand there and keep my mouth shut. So I stood back, leaned against the wall, and just watched the proceedings.
The lead programmer gave his demo, and the VP ooohed and ahhhhed. He then asked, "And this will be ready for release next Monday?" The lead programmer said, "Yes, it will be ready on Monday." The other managers in the room also said, "Monday."
I was holding my breath through all this. I couldn't believe what I was hearing. Either I was crazy or all of them were crazy. That's why I call this the most bizarre day of my life.
Well anyway, to make a long story short, the project was not ready for release the following Monday. It slipped six months. I wasn't fired because one Silent generation manager went around and told everyone that "Xenakis was right, so he shouldn't be fired." So I wasn't fired.
I've had several other experiences like that, except that usually I was fired, even though I was always right. In 1992, I was working as a contract programmer for Fidelity. I did a little unit testing, and wrote a memo to my manager, listing numerous problems why the project was in trouble, saying that it would slip at least six months. The manager was so furious that he had smoke coming out of his ears. He fired me. The project crashed completely a couple of months later. I was right, and he was wrong, though I paid the price.
In a previous article ( "14-Oct-13 World View -- HealthCare.gov IT systems a continuing disaster") I related a 2005 experience where I was fired for telling my management that the $10 million project currently under development would slip 6-12 months. I was fired and out of a salary, while the dozens of incompetent engineers kept collecting salaries for over another year, at which time the disastrous project was canceled completely.
So there's really nothing about the Healthcare.gov disaster that's a surprise to me (except the 500 million lines of code). I've been a Senior Software Engineer for a long time, and I've worked on over 100 projects, so I've seen disasters. The only thing that's different about Healthcare.gov is the breathtaking size of criminality of the Obama administration in wasting so much money on cronies and corruption, and the breathtaking size of the resulting well-deserved disaster.
It's now December 1, the scheduled date of the Healthcare.gov re-launch. Based on news reports, the following has been done:
With regard to the billing being done by mail, as I understand it, you have to miss three payments in a row to be dropped off your Obamacare plan. If that turns out to be true, then what you can do, Dear Reader, is sign up for an Obamacare plan, not pay your bill, and then sign up with a different insurance company in three months. However, your doctor won't be happy to see you, since the insurance company won't reimburse him for treating you.
Long-time readers are aware that from the day it was first proposed in 2009, I've referred to President Barack Obama's health care plan as a proposal of economic insanity, because it's a repeat of President Richard Nixon's wage-price controls, which were an utter, total disaster for the economy.
In an article on July 5 ( "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse"), I explained in greater detail why Obamacare would fail for the same reasons as Nixon's wage-price controls and Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in the 1950s.
A couple of people criticized me for making the comparison to Mao's Great Leap Forward. However, Mao's Great Leap Forward contained exactly the same elements as Nixon's wage-price controls and Obamacare -- attempts to control a huge market by passing a law, which makes just as much sense as trying to control the weather by passing a law.
But if the elements are the same, there are major differences in degree. Mao carried those elements much farther, and the results were commensurately more disastrous, with the deaths of tens of millions of people. Nothing like that happened with Nixon's controls, or is expected to happen with Obamacare, where the "only" result is a disastrous economic and medical crisis, with the destruction of much of the medical services marketplace.
Still, there's one more lesson to be learned from Mao's Great Leap Forward. When things started going wrong in early 1959, Mao was warned by numerous experts. Instead of heeding those warnings immediately, which might have saved ten or twenty million lives, Mao had the experts fired or executed. We're now at a very dangerous time when the economic calamities of Obamacare are obvious to almost everyone, and are being pointed out by many people. But instead of heeding the warnings, President Obama is ignoring them, and threatening political opponents with such things as further IRS audits. The longer President Obama continues in this way, the more damage he does. Obamacare will not cause the tens of millions of deaths that Mao's Great Leap Forward did, but it's now quite possible that Obamacare will be the direct cause of hundreds or even thousands of deaths. Investors Business Daily
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Dec-13 World View -- Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Dec-2013)
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