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Bank of International Settlements warns of 'euphoric markets' and high debt
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Terrorists, assumed to be Boko Haram, killed dozens of people on Sunday in an attack on three villages in northeast Nigeria, including one targeting worshippers at a church. That attacks took place only a few miles from Chibok, where Boko Haram abducted over 200 schoolgirls several weeks ago.
There are new terrorist attacks every few days in Nigeria, including gunfights, suicide and car bombs, and abductions of young girls and boys. The Nigerian army and government is viewed as helpless against the crimes of Boko Haram.
However, Boko Haram may be facing a new enemy, which they themselves fear may be supernatural. Some members of Boko Haram have been arrested while fleeing a forest hideout, because of what they believe are spiritual attacks from mysterious snakes and bees, which had killed many of their leaders. According to one of the fleeing terrorists:
"Most of us are fleeing because there are too many snakes and bees now in the forest. Once they bite, they disappear and the victims do not last for 24 hours.We were told that the aggrieved people who had suffered from our deadly mission, including the ghosts of some of those we killed, are the ones turning into the snake and bees. Our leaders fled, too."
According to another member, "They believe the Chibok people are using juju to pursue us because of their children said to have been taken by our leaders." Reuters and Vanguard (Nigeria)
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which is the international institution that was created during the 1930s Great Depression to coordinate individual countries' central banks, issued its 2014 annual reports with warnings that the financial markets are too "euphoric" and have become detached from reality, particularly as regards the use of debt and quantitative easing.
According to the report:
"The global economy continues to face serious challenges. Despite a pickup in growth, it has not shaken off its dependence on monetary stimulus. Monetary policy is still struggling to normalize after so many years of extraordinary accommodation. Despite the euphoria in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity, large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions. And despite lackluster long-term growth prospects, debt continues to rise. There is even talk of secular stagnation."
According to the report, "Financial markets have been exuberant over the past year, at least in AEs, dancing mainly to the tune of central bank decisions. Volatility in equity, fixed income and foreign exchange markets has sagged to historical lows. Obviously, market participants are pricing in hardly any risks." This means that it's quantitative easing and "money printing" by the Fed and other central banks have fed into financial markets, removing any risks and creating imbalances, as long as the money printing continues.
The BIS attributes these problems to the fact that the world economy has been in a "balance sheet recession," a term that we discussed at length in 2009 in "Fiscal stimulus programs in 1930s and today", about the findings of Richard C. Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute.
The report notes that public debt worldwide is now considerably higher than it was in 2007, before the current financial crisis began. According to the BIS, balance sheet recessions have two key features.
"First, they are very costly (Chapter III). They tend to be deeper, give way to weaker recoveries, and result in permanent output losses: output may return to its previous long-term growth rate but hardly to its previous growth path. No doubt, several factors are at work. Booms make it all too easy to overestimate potential output and growth as well as to misallocate capital and labour. And during the bust, the overhangs of debt and capital stock weigh on demand while an impaired financial system struggles to oil the economic engine, damaging productivity and further eroding long-term prospects.Second, as growing evidence suggests, balance sheet recessions are less responsive to traditional demand management measures (Chapter V). One reason is that banks need to repair their balance sheets. As long as asset quality is poor and capital meagre, banks will tend to restrict overall credit supply and, more importantly, misallocate it. As they lick their wounds, they will naturally retrench. But they will keep on lending to derelict borrowers (to avoid recognizing losses) while cutting back on credit or making it dearer for those in better shape. A second, even more important, reason is that overly indebted agents will wish to pay down debt and save more. Give them an additional unit of income, as fiscal policy would do, and they will save it, not spend it. Encourage them to borrow more by reducing interest rates, as monetary policy would do, and they will refuse to oblige. During a balance sheet recession, the demand for credit is necessarily feeble. The third reason relates to the large sectoral and aggregate imbalances in the real sector that build up during the preceding financial boom - in construction, for instance. Boosting aggregate demand indiscriminately does little to address them. It may actually make matters worse if, for example, very low interest rates favor sectors where too much capital is already in place."
Generational Dynamics predicts that the global financial crisis is far from over, and that there is much worse to come. Bank of International Settlements
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jun-14 World View -- Nigeria's Boko Haram attacks a Church, but flees from bees and snakes thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Jun-2014)
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West African Ebola outbreak is now the worst in history
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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By all rights, World War I should be an almost completely forgotten event in the dust bins of history, with its 16 million deaths a symbol of a time when people weren't nearly as smart and sophisticated as we are today, and so did many stupid things.
That may be the attitude in America, but it's certainly not in the Balkans, where a monument to Gavrilo Princip was unveiled on Saturday in East Sarajevo by Nebojsa Radmanovic, the Serb leader in the government of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Austria-Hungary had occupied Bosnia since 1878, and Princip was the one of seven members of the group Mlada Bosna (Young Bosnia) that wanted independence from Austria-Hungary.
Exactly one hundred years ago, on June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip shot and killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian empire, and his pregnant wife Sophie.
At Saturday's ceremony, Radmanovic said that Princip was a hero to the Serb people:
"Today, we have Gavrilo in East Sarajevo, a revolutionary, a man who to us, is one century of hope. We remember the Young Bosnia members and Gavrilo Princip proudly. ...Gavrilo Princip’s shot was a shot for freedom. His shot was a prelude to what some Europeans had prepared for years, and Serbs finished the war as winners. We remember Mlada Bosna and Gavrilo Princip with pride."
There were also centenary commemorations of the start of World War I in the other half of Sarajevo, but the Muslims and Croats in those commemorations do not consider Princip or any Serb to be a hero. Fresh in their minds are the memories of the Bosnian war in 1992-95, when 100,000 people died and Sarajevo suffered a 1,425 day siege by Serb forces. To them, Princip is just a terrorist who killed a politician and a pregnant woman, and brought a flourishing epoch to an end.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 1990s Bosnian war came at the expected time. World War I ended in 1918, and new crisis wars begin when the survivors of the previous crisis disappear. By the 1990s, none of those survivors were left, and the region collapsed into one of the bloodiest and most vicious wars in the post-WW II era. According to one historical summary of the war:
"It was during this initial wave of Bosnian Serb ethnic cleansing — orchestrated by Radovan Karadzi and his generals — that the world began to hear tales as horrifying as anything you can imagine. Militia units would enter a town and indiscriminately kill anyone they saw — civilian men, women, and children. Pregnant women mortally wounded by gunfire were left to die in the street. Fleeing residents crawled on their stomachs for hours to reach cover, even as their family and friends were shot and blown up right next to them. Soldiers rounded up families, then forced parents to watch as they slit the throats of their children — and then the parents were killed, too. Dozens of people would be lined up along a bridge to have their throats slit, one at a time, so that their lifeless bodies would plunge into the river below. (Villagers downstream would see corpses float past, and know their time was coming soon.) While in past conflicts houses of worship had been considered off-limits, now Karadzi's forces actively targeted mosques and Catholic churches. Perhaps most despicable was the establishment of so-called “rape camps” — concentration camps where mostly Bosniak [Bosnian Muslim] women were imprisoned and systematically raped by Serb soldiers. Many were intentionally impregnated and held captive until they had come to term (too late for an abortion), when they were released to bear and raise a child forced upon them by their hated enemy. These are the stories that turned “Balkans” into a dirty word.The Bosnian Serb aggressors were intentionally gruesome and violent. Leaders roused their foot soldiers with hate-filled propaganda (claiming, for example, that the Bosniaks were intent on creating a fundamentalist Islamic state that would do even worse to its Serb residents), then instructed them to carry out unthinkable atrocities. For the people who carried out these attacks, the war represented a cathartic opportunity to exact vengeance for decades-old perceived injustices. Everyday Serbs — who, for centuries, have been steeped in messages about how they have been the victims of their neighbors — saw this as an opportunity to finally make a stand. But their superiors had even more dastardly motives. They sought not only to remove people from “their” land, but to do so in such a heinous way to ensure that the various groups could never again tolerate living together."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Bosnia and Yugoslavia were on a "World War I" timeline, meaning that their crisis wars occurred around the time of WW I, and then repeated 60-80 years later. The Iran/Iraq war (1980-88) and the Syria/Lebanon war (1976-1982) are other examples of wars on the WW I timeline, and these wars were full of similar atrocities.
Americans and Westerners in general think that they're more civilized, and immune to these atrocities, but nothing could be further from the truth. Western countries, for the most part are on the "World War II timeline." These same kinds of atrocities occurred in WW II, and when these wars recur 60-80 years after the end of WW II, these Americans and Westerners will be subject to the same kinds of atrocities.
BBC and inSerbia (Belgrade) and B92 (Belgrade) and Understanding Yugoslavia
Consider the following events of the last 15 years:
These are all modern day examples of situations that are similar to the Austria-Hungary occupation and annexation of Bosnia in the late 1800s. In all these modern day examples, there were many actions that took place very quickly -- within a few hours or a day or two. If a situation were going out of control, there would be no time for quiet contemplation or debates in the defunct United Nations Security Council.
There have been many renewed debates recently about the causes of World War I. One of the most frequently mentioned causes is the "blank check" that Germany provided to Austria. Germany promised unconditional support to Austria in its invasion of Serbia. That brought Germany into the war. France also issued a kind of "blank check" to Russia, promising support against Austria, and that brought Russia into the war.
America has issued many "blank checks" to many countries. After World War II, America signed a large number of mutual defense treaties with other countries. These include agreements with Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the ANZUS agreement with Australia and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement with all of Europe.
A mutual defense treaty is arguably not the same as a "blank check," but it's close enough so that a misstep or miscalculation on the part of any country could start a world war.
In 1914, it took the action of just one young man to trigger 16 million deaths. The fighting ranged from Gallipoli and the Dardanelles Campaign — where Newfoundlanders fought and died alongside Indians, Australians and New Zealanders — to the Balkans, the killing fields of the Western Front, the waters off Argentina, and in the Pacific where the Imperial Japanese Navy fought on the same side as Britain and France, grabbing German colonies and outposts in China and Micronesia.
The Japanese sent warships to the Mediterranean and off the coast of South Africa, and were involved with Canadian, Czech and British troops in the Siberian Intervention against Communist Russia, during the last days of war and for several months thereafter.
One of the ironies of The Great War was that Gavrilo Princip's assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, was opportunistic. The driver of Ferdinand's vehicle took a wrong turn, and the wrong turn brought Ferdinand into shooting range of Princip. If the driver had not taken that wrong turn, then something else would have had to trigger The Great War, and Gavrilo Princip would not have a monument dedicated to him.
And that shows how easy it is for a misstep or miscalculation to lead to war. BBC and National Post (Toronto)
According to the latest figures from the World Health Organization (WHO), there have been more than 635 cases of Ebola across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leona, with at least 399 deaths. Those figures are substantially higher than when I wrote about this four days ago. Ebola can spread rapidly through a population because it's spread by touch, especially with the bodily fluids of a person who is infected, but has not yet shown symptoms. WHO officials are now saying there is a real danger that it could spread to neighboring countries, such as the Ivory Coast and Guinea Bissau. There's no danger of a worldwide epidemic, since Ebola is only spread through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person, as opposed to a virus that can spread through the air. USA Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jun-14 World View -- Sarajevo Serbs unveil monument to Gavrilo Princip, who triggered World War I thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Jun-2014)
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We have Jean-Claude Juncker to kick around again.
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Jean-Claude Jüncker is to become the next president of the European Commission, roughly weaker equivalent of the president of the United States, after the European Council backed his nomination this afternoon in Brussels. The European Council, the leaders of the 28 nations of European Union, voted 26-2 in favor of Jüncker. Only Britain and Hungary were opposed.
Jean-Claude Jüncker is a total politician. Almost everything he says is completely full of crap, but his political skills are so great that he can sell it to a credulous press that acts to him the like the NY Times and NBC News act toward President Obama.
It was always great having Jüncker around. He was head of the Eurogroup, the eurozone finance ministers, and so he was in charge of the efforts to bail out Greece. At every point in the bailout, he would make a statement that Greek fiscal crisis had been solved, and he would back it up with some figure that was completely ridiculous. But the mainstream press would lap it up the way they lap up everything Obama says, and it's up to someone like me to point out what's going on.
The most amusing moment occurred in May, 2011, when Jüncker was caught in a lie so obvious that even he couldn't BS his way out of it. Finally he said When it becomes serious, you have to lie, to explain why he lied. From that point on, we could always assume that everything he said was a lie, since everything was always serious.
Jüncker was prime minister of Luxembourg from 1995 to 2013, and when he retired, it was assumed that he would go off to a Swiss chalet and write his memoirs. But he wanted the job of President of the European Union, and when the European Parliament ratifies the nomination on July 16, then he'll have what he wanted. And we'll have him back to kick around again. Irish Times and Reuters
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Britain's prime minister called Jean-Claude Jüncker the wrong man for the job of EU president, and said:
"There are times when it’s very important that you stick to your principles and you stick to your convictions even if the odds are heavily stacked against you rather than going along with something that you believe is profoundly wrong. And today is one of those days. ...If the European Council, the elected heads of government, are going to allow the European Parliament to choose the next president of the European Commission in this way I wanted it on the record that Britain opposed that.""
He added that support in Britain to remain in the EU is "wafer-thin," and that Jüncker's accession would harden the opposition.
The dispute is bitter and personal. There have even been reports of Cameron meeting with other leaders earlier in the week to discuss Jüncker's heavy drinking and smoking problems. Jüncker's liking for "a cognac at breakfast" was causing concerns. One European diplomat said: 'His alcohol consumption has been raised by a number of leaders since the (European) parliamentary elections.'
However, this was not the first bitter, personal disagreement between Jüncker and a British prime minister. In June, 2005, at an EU budget summit, Jüncker was demanding of Britain's PM Tony Blair to agree to give up a $5 billion rebate that Margaret Thatcher had negotiated in 1984. Blair refused, unless France's president Jacques Chirac agreed to reduce the large agricultural subsidies that were given to French farmers. Jüncker shook his fist at Blair, and at a post-midnight press conference, a furious Jean-Claude Jüncker clearly condemned Blair and the UK, saying he felt ashamed that "certain people did not have the will to reach agreement when some poorer other countries were willing to do so."
Britain and Jüncker represent opposite poles on the spectrum of EU federalism. Jüncker wants to give as much power as possible to the politicians in Brussels, while Cameron, and Blair before him, want Britain to retain as much individual sovereignty as possible. The appointment of Jüncker to the EU presidency is a real thumb in the eye of Cameron and Britain, and this story is not yet over. BBC and Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London)
Jean-Claude Jüncker led the way in the bailout of Greece. Greece's financial crisis hasn't been in the news much recently, so it's appropriate to ask how Greece is doing today.
In October, 2011, European leaders announced a new plan to bail out Greece. For details, see my article at the time, "28-Oct-11 News -- Markets explode on crazy Rube Goldberg eurozone deal". The heart of the announcement was that investors holding Greek bonds would "voluntarily" lose 50% of their investments -- take a 50% "haircut." (It later turned out to be 75%.) In return, Greece would go on an austerity program that would lower its deficit to GDP ratio from 160% to 120%, by 2020.
That turned out not to be enough, and in November, 2012, Jüncker announced to the world what was to be the final bailout of Greece. (See "28-Nov-12 World View -- Europe's new charade in Greece's bailout announcement") At the 2 am press conference, here's Jüncker's announcement:
"This is not just about money. This is the promise of a better future for the Greek people and for the euro area as a whole, a break from the era of missed targets and loose implementation towards a new paradigm of steadfast reform momentum, declining debt ratios and a return to growth."
Since the situation was serious, we can assume that Juncker was lying, and indeed he was.
Where's Greece today? The unemployment rate is 27%, the highest in the eurozone. Greece's inflation rate is -2%, putting it into the worst deflationary spiral in the eurozone. And its debt-to-GDP ratio has gone up - to 175%. In other words, instead of going from 160% DOWN to 120%, the debt ratio has gone further UP, to 175%.
So Jüncker's fatuous babble about "a new paradigm of steadfast reform momentum, declining debt ratios and a return to growth" was completely wrong on all counts. And Greece's financial crisis is far from over.
In May, I wrote about Europe's 'political earthquake' election, where anti-EU parties surged in several nations. In Greece, the far-left Syriza party got 26.7%, its highest ever, and the neo-Nazi Gold Dawn party got 10% of the vote, its highest ever. Greece is going to keep from being pulled apart, it's going to need more than fatuous political babble from the EU president. Real Clear Markets
CNN is reporting that the USS Bataan is being sent to the Persian Gulf with 1000 marines on board. There is no word of a planned invasion. That will make seven warships there -- The USS Arleigh Burke, the USS Truxton, the USS Gunston Hall, the USS George HW Bush, the USS O'Kane, the USS Philippine Sea, USS Mesa Verde -- along with helicopters and warplanes that can be used for an invasion or for an evacuation of US citizens. There have been US drones flying over Iraq for several days, but now it's been confirmed that the drones are armed with Hellfire missiles, to provide air support and force protection in case the 180 or so US military advisors currently in Baghdad comes under attack. CNN and Politico
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jun-14 World View -- USS Bataan with 1000 marines to join six other warships in the Persian Gulf thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Jun-2014)
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Thousands of Ukrainians flee east Ukraine for Russia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Warplanes from the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad struck at positions held by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) along the border between Syria and Iraq. Initial reports indicated that the warplanes' targets were within Iraq, though reports differ. According to Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki:
"There was no coordination involved, but we welcome this action. We welcome any Syrian strike against Isis, because this group targets both Iraq and Syria ... But we didn't make any request from Syria. They carry out their strikes and we carry out ours. The final winners are our two countries."
This makes the Syria regime our ally in Iraq, but our enemy in Syria. Iran is also our ally in Iraq, and our enemy in Syria.
In fact, late news is that the Obama administration is asking the US Congress to approve $500 million to train and equip "moderate" opposition forces in Syria. So keep your scorecards up to date, Dear Reader.
As I said many years ago, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, Iran will be our ally and the Sunni Arab states will be our enemy in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. These trends are moving the region in that direction. BBC and Guardian (London)
With the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) having taken control of border posts in Iraq on the border with Jordan, putting Saudi Arabia's security in danger, Saudi King Abdullah has put the army and security forces on the highest alert. According to the Saudi state-run news agency:
"Anticipating (that) the terrorist organizations or others might carry out actions that might disturb the security of the homeland, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques has ordered taking all necessary measures to protect the gains of the homeland and its territories in addition to the security and stability of the Saudi people."
Saudi reconnaissance planes have found ISIS terrorists heading for the Saudi border, aiming to seize control of the Iraqi-Saudi border crossing at Ar Ar. CNN and Debka
When the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conquers a new village, one chore the terrorists have to go through is to decide whom in the village to let live, and whom to torture, rape, mutilate and kill. Since ISIS is devoted to exterminating apostate Shia Muslims, making that decision requires figuring out whether each citizen is Shia or Sunni. According to reports that are coming out of Iraq, the ISIS terrorists ask four questions to determine whom to kill:
People can easily get tripped up if they try to lie. Others refuse to lie about their faith. Times of India
A ceasefire that's been in place in eastern Ukraine for the last few days is due to expire on Friday, and thousands of Ukrainians are in long lines on the border with Russia, fleeing the expected violence. Earlier this week, Russian migration officials said that more than 90,000 refugees had already crossed the border.
The fear is that, once the ceasefire ends, the violence between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists will surge, putting civilians' lives in danger. Western leaders are asking Russia's president Vladimir Putin to call on the pro-Russian separatists to lay down their arms, and to do so "in the next few hours," to prevent further bloodshed. AP and VOA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jun-14 World View -- Saudi Arabia's armed forces on high alert as ISIS approaches thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Jun-2014)
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Stocks rise after disastrous GDP report
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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It's assumed that Boko Haram is responsible for the suicide car bombing on Wednesday that caused a massive explosion in a shopping mall in Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria, killing at least 21 people, and scattering body parts around the plaza. It seems that Nigeria's government and army can do nothing to stop the repeated attacks, one or two every week, from Boko Haram, including abductions, gunfights and suicide bombings. It was just just yesterday that we reported that Boko Haram had abducted 90 more women, in addition to the 200+ schoolgirls that they'd already abducted. Daily Mail (London) and Nigerian Bulletin
The event that triggered the violent crisis besetting Ukraine for the last seven months was the last-minute flip-flop by then-president Viktor Yanukovych, who had promised to sign a trade deal with the European Union, to ditch the EU deal and go with a trade deal with Russia.
Now the new president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, is going to Brussels on Friday to to sign that same trade deal with the EU, apparently with the reluctant blessings of the Russians. According to Russia's Economic Development Minister, Alexei Ulyukayev:
"A three-party meeting of the EU, Ukraine and Russia is expected to take place at the ministerial level in July. EU Trade Commissioner Karel de Gucht, Ukrainian Economy Minister Pavel Sheremet and I will meet to discuss risks that will emerge over the implementation of this agreement and possible measures to offset these risks."
Ulyukayev says that from Russia's point of view, there are two groups of problems:
The Ukraine-EU trade deal is 1,200-page document crammed with rules on everything from turkeys to tulips, cheese to machinery. Itar-Tass (Moscow) and Canadian Broadcasting
The stock market rose on Wednesday, after the Commerce Department revised its estimate of GDP growth from the first quarter, originally reported to be an anemic +1.0%, to a disastrous fall of 2.9%. The nearly 3% contraction in the economy during the first quarter is being blamed variously on the weather and Obamacare. According to one estimate, indirect taxes from Obamacare are the highest tax increase in decades.
Mainstream economists were shocked by this report. Every quarter, they predict that the economy's growth will start to surge in the next quarter, just as it did after recessions in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. But as I've pointed out many, many times, mainstream economics didn't predict and can't explain the tech bubble of the 1990s, didn't predict and can't explain the huge credit and real estable bubble of the mid-2000s decade, and the real estate collapse and credit crisis after 2007. Hell, they didn't even know that there'd been a real estate bubble until around 2009, two years after it had started to burst.
Mainstream economists didn't predict and can't explain any of those events. They don't have a clue what the economy is going to do this year, and even less of a clue about next year.
What they don't understand is that a return to the 1970s-90s is 100% impossible. That was a different generational era. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the mood and behavior of people today matches the 1930s, not the 1980s, which means that the velocity of money is going to continue to plummet, and that the economy is in a deflationary spiral.
However, stock market share prices rose on Wednesday. The reason that investors were happy about the disastrous GDP data was that it means that the Fed will continue its program of "printing" tens of billions of dollars in new money, and pumping into the financial system, allowing it to flow into the stock market.
For investors, bad news is still good news. Investing.com
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jun-14 World View -- Ukraine to sign trade deal with European Union on Friday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Jun-2014)
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Boko Haram in Nigeria abducts 60 more girls and 30 boys
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
European authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about the numbers of European youth who are going to Syria to join the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the jihad against the regimes in Syria and Iraq. Media interviews with some of these young jihadists indicate an enormous level of ignorance:
"I'm from the south of England. I grew up in a middle class family. Life was easy back home. I had a life. I had a car. But the thing is: You cannot practice Islam back home. We see all around us evil. We see pedophiles. We see homosexuality. We see crime. We see rape."
There are hundreds and, more likely, thousands of young men who have gone to fight with ISIS, as are would-be jihadists from around the world, from America to Indonesia to Pakistan to Africa to Russia.
According to a Lebanese analyst, the Western media are ignoring the danger posed by ISIS, by vastly underestimating its power and accomplishments, and even sometimes portraying it as a benign people's revolution of tribal youths.
ISIS was formed only a little over a year ago in Syria, and it's repeatedly fought off and beaten not only attacks by Syria's army, but also other Sunni militant groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra. Despite having to fight battles on several fronts, in the last few weeks it's accomplish an extremely complex and sophisticated victory in Iraq, taking control of an Iraqi land area that is bigger than several Arab countries combined, and is threatening Saudi Arabia and Jordan. ISIS has taken control of many of the border crossings between Iraq and Syria, effectively erasing the border between the two countries.
The Western media have also given an unlikely impression of the size of ISIS, sometimes describing it as having only a few hundred or a few thousand fighters. In fact, the old Al-Qaeda in Iraq, led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had at least 15,000 fighters, and possibly many times more. ISIS is likely to have all those fighters available, and those are buttressed by foreign jihadists coming from around the world.
None of this should be any surprise to long-time readers of Generational Dynamics World View, as we've been describing the increasing strength of the jihadist movement in Syria for well over a year. It's also worth taking a moment to repeat the main factors that have made this possible:
In the last few months, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has launched a sophisticated Al-Hayat Media ("Life is belief and jihad") and a media campaign in English, German, French, and other languages, targeting Western audiences. The character and quality of the productions suggest that the staff is experienced in producing media materials for Western audiences. Apparently, one of the main figures active in the new media branch is German rapper-turned-jihad-fighter Abu Talha Al Almani (aka Deso Dogg), who was wounded twice in the fighting in Syria. Al-Hayat's twitter account was shut down because of its offensive material, but Al-Hayat media's videos and materials are also distributed in other ways.
One British youth, who goes by the name Abu Abdullah Al Brittani, gives online advice to underage British youth on how to exchange currencies, how to travel to Syria and join ISIS, and even gives advice on marriage and family. MEMRI and Daily Mail (London)
Russia's president Vladimir Putin has asked Russia's Federation Council to cancel the resolution, passed on March 1, that authorized an invasion of Ukraine by Russia's armed forces. Putin's call is a response to the unilateral ceasefire called by Ukraine's President Petr Poroshenko. A decision will be reached today (Wednesday). Voice of Russia
The Nigerian terrorist and sex pervert group Boko Haram has abducted 60 more girls and young women, some as young as 3. In addition, some 30 boys were abducted. The abduction took place during a three-day siege of a village in northeast Nigeria, during which many people were killed, the entire village was burned down, and the Boko Haram perverts took their time picking out the girls that they wanted to abduct. These new kidnappings come over two months after 200-300 schoolgirls were abducted. The Nigerian army and government is viewed as helpless against the crimes of Boko Haram. However, Boko Haram has indicated that it may be willing to release 219 schoolgirls in return for the release of all Boko Haram militants currently in Nigerian jails. The government has rejected such suggestions in the past, but is now said to be considering it. AFP and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jun-14 World View -- The Iraqi catastrophe worsens as European youth join ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Jun-2014)
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Ebola virus is 'out of control' in western Africa
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Countries and human rights organizations around the world are condemning the convictions by an Egyptian court of three Al-Jazeera reporters, with sentences ranging from 7 to 10 years in jail. they were accused of "spreading false news," falsely portraying Egypt as being in a state of "civil war," as well as aiding or joining the banned Muslim Brotherhood. The trial was closely watched by journalists and governments around the world, with all the proceedings widely reported, and apparently not a shred of evidence was provided supporting the charges. The evidence that was presented was irrelevant, and a lot of it was completely phony. In one case, a BBC (not Al-Jazeera) podcast was presented as evidence.
(Definition of "Kangaroo Court": Slang for a court of law in which the violations of procedure, precedents, and due process are so gross that fundamental justice is denied. It usually means that the judge is incompetent or obviously biased.)
According to several analysts, the logic behind the ruling is as follows:
Al Ahram (Cairo) and Al Ahram and BBC
A web site reader referred me to the article excerpted below:
The Generational Short: Who Will Boomers Sell Their Stocks To?
The implicit conclusion: the Baby Boomers won't have anyone to sell their stocks, real estate and bonds to. Correspondent Eric A. demolished the fantasy that Gen X will have the income and assets to buy the Boomers' stocks held in IRAs, local government and union pension funds and 401K accounts.
The idea that Gen-Y will have the wealth (not to mention the desire) to buy the Boomers' stock market portfolios at nosebleed valuations poses a peculiar conundrum: the only way Gen-Y will have the wealth to buy Baby Boomers' assets is if the Boomers sell their assets and pass the wealth along to Gen-Y.
So if both Gen-X and Gen-Y are out as buyers, who's left to buy the tens of trillions of dollars of Boomer assets at bubblicious prices? Given that other nations face the same demographic dilemma, the answer appears to be: no one. ...
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If this is the New Normal, then what that means is a bubble and crash every 7+ years is now the expected cycle. ...
Doesn't it boil down to this? If we can't come up with a viable cohort who can afford (and is willing to place that generational bet) to buy Baby Boomer assets at current bubble-level prices, then it follows that as the first Boomers start selling their assets, prices will fall as there is nobody left to buy them, at least at these valuations.
Those who see the current era as an aberration have one logical action: sell now and get out while the getting's good. Zero Hedge
Doctors Without Borders is calling the Ebola epidemic in western Africa "out of control." There have been 567 cases and 350 deaths since the epidemic began in March. The outbreak has spread to 60 different locations in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The virus is spreading widely because people are traveling without realizing that they're infected with the virus. It can take 2-21 days for someone to feel sick after they've been exposed. Once symptoms show, many die within 10 days. There's no danger of a worldwide epidemic, since Ebola is only spread through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person, as opposed to a virus that can spread through the air. CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jun-14 World View -- Egypt's Kangaroo Court finds Al-Jazeera journalists guilty with no evidence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Jun-2014)
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Pakistanis fear nationwide blowback from military offensive against Taliban
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Israeli troops on Sunday killed two Palestinians in the West Bank as they conducted a hunt for three Israeli teenagers who disappeared and were allegedly kidnapped ten days earlier on June 10. Their deaths raise to four the number of Palestinians killed in Israel's largest military operation in years. The operation is being conducted across both the West Bank and Gaza.
While condemning the killing of the Palestinians, the Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces are cooperating in the manhunt. PA president Mahmoud Abbas has condemned the kidnapping, and this has caused a rift between PA/Fatah and Hamas, shortly after the two groups formed a "unity government."
Abbas on Sunday reiterated his commitment to help Israel find the kidnapped teens, but warned that the actions of Israel's military could ignite the Palestinian street:
Israel’s continued destructive actions, including shooting innocent Palestinians in cold blood, while Ramadan is around the corner and the situation on the Palestinian street is explosive, can only serve to ignite the West Bank and take things out of control."
Israel has been bitterly opposed to the unity government, and is using the kidnapping as an opportunity to crush the Hamas organization in the West Bank by arresting 340 Palestinians, about two-thirds of them members of Hamas. Hamas claims that it had nothing to do with the kidnapping, but Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has "irrefutable proof" that Hamas is guilty, and that the proof will be made public soon.
Part of the "game" being played on both sides is the potential for trading prisoners for hostages. In 2011, Israel release 1,027 Palestinians held in Israeli prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit, and Israeli soldier who had been held hostage by Hamas for five years. More Palestinians were released from prison during the "peace process" that collapsed a few months ago. Many of the Palestinians being arrested by the Israeli forces had been previously released. Some reports indicate that Palestinians are in favor of efforts to kidnap Israeli teens, because they can be exchanged for prisoners, as in the case of Shalit. If that's Hamas's strategy, then we can assume that Israel's strategy is to arrest as many Palestinians as possible, so that they can be freed in exchange for the teen hostages.
Israel's massive reaction to the kidnapping reminds me of 2006, when Israel panicked and launched the Lebanon war with Hezbollah within four hours, with no plan and no objectives. The result was a disaster for Israel and for Lebanon. That isn't the case so far this time, but it may begin to approach that point. Jerusalem Post and AP and International Middle East Media Center (Gaza)
Israel says that it's carried out air strikes on nine military targets within Syria. The air strikes were in response to mortar fire or shelling from Syria that killed a 15-year-old Israeli boy in the Golan Heights. In March, Israel conducted air strikes against several Syrian military targets after a bombing that injured four of its soldiers in the Golan Heights. BBC
Some 350,000 people (known as "internally displaced people" or IDPs) from the North Waziristan agency in Pakistan's tribal area are now refugees, fleeing the military action that's clearing out militants, bases, communications centers, safehouses and weapons stores in the agency. (The different regions in the tribal area are called "agencies.")
Some are fleeing to Afghanistan, as we described yesterday, but most, including tens of thousands of children, are waiting in long lines in extremely hot weather to get security clearance to enter the town of Bannu, where they hope to be safe. They're escaping from the violence of the military action by Pakistan's army against Taliban hideouts and weapons stores in North Waziristan in Pakistan's tribal area. There are fears of a humanitarian disaster, or that the IDPs could spread polio, as many of the displaced children have not been vaccinated.
The Pakistani Taliban have been bombing schools, mosques and markets across Pakistan for years, and there have been repeated calls for the army to go into North Waziristan, where most of the Taliban bases are located. The government and the army resisted those calls for years, fearing blowback, but now military action was triggered by the terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi earlier this month. Investigations showed that the airport attackers were not only Pakistanis, but were also Tajiks and Uzbeks from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the East Turkestan Independence Movement (ETI).
However, once the airport attack occurred, it was clear to everyone that the military action would begin soon, and so the Pakistani, Uzbek, and Tajik terrorists have all fled, leaving behind seven million civilians and a possible humanitarian disaster.
Now the concern is rising quickly that the predicted blowback is about to occur. Targets in the capital city Islamabad are already being threatened, and concerns are rising of a new, more dangerous wave of terrorist attacks across the country. BBC and Daily Times (Pakistan) and Asian Tribune (Sri Lanka)
Jordan is increasing its border defenses and putting some military units on alert after the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) captured three more Iraqi border towns, including one on the border with Jordan, only 200 miles from Amman. ISIS now has unchecked control of hundreds of miles along the Iraq-Syria border, allowing easy travel of people and weapons between the two countries, and putting ISIS in easy reach of Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Washington Post and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jun-14 World View -- Jordan on alert as ISIS captures more border towns thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Jun-2014)
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In strategic victory, ISIS captures Syria-Iraq border crossing
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After military tensions surged in the last few months between China and Vietnam over China's drilling rig within Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), China is now launching four new oil rigs. In response to a question, China's foreign ministry said, "Please don't worry, there won't be any problem." It's possible, though not yet confirmed, that all four of the oil rigs are entirely within China's waters. Reuters
For years, Pakistan has been hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees from Afghanistan fleeing the war there. Now there's a flood of thousands of Pakistan refugees fleeing into Afghanistan, where there are no refugee camps to accommodate them. They're escaping from the violence of the military action by Pakistan's army against Taliban hideouts and weapons stores in North Waziristan in Pakistan's tribal area. The military action was triggered by the terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi earlier this month. More than 100,000 thousand people in North Waziristan have been forced to flee their homes, and those that haven't gone to Afghanistan have traveled to nearby provinces in Pakistan in the hope of finding food and shelter. VOA
The Iraq crisis has become a political crisis for the new government of prime minister Narendra Modi, because the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has taken 40 India citizens as hostages. According to reports, the the Indian workers are now being held in a cotton warehouse in the vicinity of Mosul. In addition, 46 Indian nurses are trapped in a hospital in Tikrit. There are over 10,000 to 20,000 Indians in Iraq, both legal and illegal migrants. Many of them are in the Shia-dominated south, and if the war escalates, then they will be in danger. India is also concerned that the conflict will result in a sharp increase in oil prices, which would harm India's economy. The Hindu (India) and Times of India
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) made a major strategic victory on Saturday by capturing the town of al-Qaim in Iraq, a border crossing between Syria and Iraq. This will permit ISIS to join its armies in Syria and Iraq, and permit the free flow of people, weapons and commercial goods between the two armies, and will provide a direct path for ISIS to approach Baghdad. ISIS has captured billions of dollars worth of American weapons, including tanks, humvees, helicopters, and other heavy weaponry, from storehouses in Mosul that were supposedly being guarded by the Iraqi army. Those weapons can now be moved back into Syria, if desired, for use against Hezbollah, Iranian forces, and the Syrian regime army. CNN and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jun-14 World View -- India's PM Narendra Modi government in crisis over Iraq hostages thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Jun-2014)
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Financial advisors taking kickbacks in addition to commissions
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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For the first time since World War II, the number of refugees that have been forced to leave their homes because of violence or persecution exceeds 50 million. During 2013, there were about 10.7 million individuals who became new refugees. Fully half of the new refugees were children, and the large preponderance were mothers and children.
The top three countries producing new refugees in 2013 were:
The top five countries that hosted refugees were:
2013 saw multiple refugee crises, reaching the greatest levels since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. While there was only one major war causing refugees in 1994, there were several in 2013: Syria, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Central African Republic.
The figures were in a new report by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UN refugee agency - UNHCR). António Guterres, the head of UNHCR, announced the report with a big dollop of wishful thinking:
"Peace is today dangerously in deficit. Humanitarians can help as a palliative, but political solutions are vitally needed. Without this, the alarming levels of conflict and the mass suffering that is reflected in these figures will continue.The international community has to overcome its differences and find solutions to the conflicts of today in South Sudan, Syria, Central African Republic and elsewhere. Non-traditional donors need to step up alongside traditional donors. As many people are forcibly displaced today as the entire populations of medium-to-large countries such as Colombia or Spain, South Africa or South Korea."
Guterres says that Europe, America and other wealthy countries have an obligation to do more to help refugees escape from violence and persecution.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this worldwide surge in refugees is a sign that many countries of the world are becoming unstable in the generational Crisis era.
As an aside, the report says that there are additionally about 3.5 million stateless people in the world, though they are not counted as refugees. UNHCR
The normally mild-mannered U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed anger on Friday at the situation in Syria. He blamed the war on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for launching the war against peaceful protesters three years ago, and he criticized the Security Council and the international community for failing to do its duty, and for risking the "cohesion and integrity" of Syria and Iraq:
"Divisions within Syria, the region and international community, even within the United Nations, and continued arms flows continue to fuel the conflict. These bleak prospects have darkened further with a flare of violence and sectarian tensions in Iraq. Suddenly the cohesion and integrity of two major countries, not just one, is in question.The time is long past for the international community, in particular the Security Council, to uphold its responsibilities," he said in urging the U.N. council to impose an arms embargo on Syria."
Of course this is never going to happen, because Russia (along with Iran) is a supporter of the genocide in Syria, and China sides with Russia because China is busy annexing other countries' territories.
It's kind of interesting how the U.N. Security Council has evolved since the end of World War II. At that time, it was thought that the UNSC could maintain peace in the world. Its five permanent members -- Britain, France, U.S., Russia and China -- had all been the targets of preemptive war by Germany and Japan. Since these five countries had learned such harsh lessons, it was thought that they would be the ones to guarantee that nothing like WW II ever happened again.
The ability of the UNSC to preserve peace has been eroding for decades, but the real death for the UNSC was struck in 2011 by Russia's president Vladimir Putin. As I've reported several times, Putin's strategy has been to use the United Nations as a tool to control Barack Obama and cripple American foreign policy, and he's been spectacularly successful with that. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics")
This has been a remarkable development. Instead of learning any lesson from WW II, Putin and Russia are leading the world into a new world war, and are PREVENTING the UNSC from doing anything about it. In fact, the UNSC is now a tool to CAUSE war, rather than a tool to PREVENT war.
This is just one more example of why people never learn the lessons of history. VOA
There's been a great deal of news coverage recently of the flood women and children coming through the border in Mexico in order to remain in the United States. Estimates are that between 60,000 and 80,000 children without parents will cross the border in 2014. The huge size of this mass of children is a new phenomenon, for which the border patrol is completely unprepared. Unlike adult male migrants, who try to get into the U.S. without being spotted by a border guard, these children run to the borders guards, as they've been told that unaccompanied children will not be deported. In many cases, they carry with them the name and phone number of relatives or friends in the U.S. They're escaping violence in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.
A similar phenomenon is happening in Europe. Some 43,000 migrants, many of them unattached children, cross the Mediterranean in shaky, unstable boats headed for Italy or Greece. Many of these children drown, or have to be rescued by patrol ships sent out by European governments. These children are fleeing violence in Syria, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and other countries.
These surges of child migrants into Europe, America and elsewhere are highly charged political issues, and are a big part of the increasing instability of the world that's leading us into a new world war. CNN
According to James Sanford of Sag Harbor Advisors, many financial advisors take kickbacks from the companies whose mutual funds that they advise clients to invest in. In other words, if you're paying a financial advisor to tell you what you should invest in, he may be selecting the investments that bring him the largest kickbacks, rather than investments mostly likely to be good for you. This is unethical, or course, and probably illegal, but with Washington from the President on down perpetrating the greatest acts of corruption I've seen in my lifetime, who cares what financial advisors are doing? CNBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jun-14 World View -- With Syria destabilizing, number of refugees back to WW II levels thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Jun-2014)
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Nato reports new Russian troop build-up on Ukraine's border
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Sheik Ali Hatim Al-Suleiman is a warlord, Emir of the Dulaim tribe in Iraq. And he's being quoted in media reports quite a bit and is becoming the unofficial spokesman for all the Iraqi Sunnis who are joining ISIS. the Dulaim tribe is one of the largest in Iraq, and al-Suleiman was one of the warlords who sided with the Americans against al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2007. Now he's disillusioned with the government of president Nouri al-Maliki, and is joining with ISIS against al-Maliki.
According to al-Suleiman:
"It is the tribal rebels who are in control of the situation in Mosul. It is not reasonable to say that a group like ISIS, which has a small number of men and vehicles, could be in control of a large city like Mosul. Therefore, it is clear that this is a tribal revolution, but the government is trying to force us all to wear the robe of the terrorists and ISIS.The time for political solutions has passed. We will not permit a political solution. Maliki has used all his strength against the Iraqi people ... So how can there be a political solution? The only solution is Maliki’s ouster.
“When we get rid of the government, we will be in charge of the security file in the regions, and then our objective will be to expel terrorism—the terrorism of the government and that of ISIS."
Suleiman believes that Iraq is headed for partition:
"The revolution does not belong to anyone, but the tribal revolutionaries are the masters of the scene. Iraq is heading towards partition. There are two choices; either Iraq becomes a sea of blood, or each community rules itself. Central government is not the solution. We do not want an Iraq that fails to respect our dignity and religion."
I guess this is a possibility, but the Generational Dynamics historical analysis of Iraq that I posted two days ago indicates that it's unlikely. There are sectarian differences in Iraq, but as I described at length, those differences are far less significant than the Arab/Persian differences that separate them from Iran. Partitioning Iraq would throw the Shias into hands of Iran, and nobody wants that, as far as I can tell. It's true that the Kurds want a separate Kurdistan, and they have wanted that for over a century, but the Kurds control a lot of oil, so it's unlikely that the Sunnis and Shias will agree to a Kurdish separation. Washington Post and Asharq Al Awsat (Riyadh)
President Barack Obama set as his highest priority is to be able to brag that he left office with all U.S. wars ended. Because his only foreign policy doctrine was to be the anti-Bush, he's had one disastrous foreign policy debacle after another. Now concerns are being raised that there's another foreign policy debacle in the making.
For the third time this week, Obama is announcing an increase in America's re-involvement in Iraq. First, he sent 300 troops to protect the embassy in Baghdad. Then word came of surveillance flights over Iraq. Now, on Thursday, he's announcing 300 more troops, to serve as "advisors," a phrase that I've heard many times in my life. Here's his statement on Thursday:
"Second, at my direction, we have significantly increased our intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets so that we’ve got a better picture of what’s taking place inside of Iraq. And this will give us a greater understanding of what ISIL is doing, where it’s located, and how we might support efforts to counter this threat.Third, the United States will continue to increase our support to Iraqi security forces. We’re prepared to create joint operation centers in Baghdad and northern Iraq to share intelligence and coordinate planning to confront the terrorist threat of ISIL. Through our new Counterterrorism Partnership Fund, we’re prepared to work with Congress to provide additional equipment. We have had advisors in Iraq through our embassy, and we’re prepared to send a small number of additional American military advisors -- up to 300 -- to assess how we can best train, advise, and support Iraqi security forces going forward.
American forces will not be returning to combat in Iraq, but we will help Iraqis as they take the fight to terrorists who threaten the Iraqi people, the region, and American interests as well.
Fourth, in recent days, we’ve positioned additional U.S. military assets in the region. Because of our increased intelligence resources, we’re developing more information about potential targets associated with ISIL. And going forward, we will be prepared to take targeted and precise military action, if and when we determine that the situation on the ground requires it. If we do, I will consult closely with Congress and leaders in Iraq and in the region."
With the remark that "American forces will not be returning to combat in Iraq," it's not clear to me whether he's lying to the public or to himself.
He also made demands of Iraqi leaders:
"Above all, Iraqi leaders must rise above their differences and come together around a political plan for Iraq’s future. Shia, Sunni, Kurds -- all Iraqis -- must have confidence that they can advance their interests and aspirations through the political process rather than through violence."
But this is naive, for the historical reasons I gave two days ago ( "18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq", viz., Iraqi Sunnis and Shias will unite during a generation crisis war against common enemy, but they are politically chaotic during a generational Awakening era, and will not unite.
The White House doesn't know what it's doing. Inaction in Syria in 2011 led to the creation of ISIS and its spillover into Iraq, and now the President isn't even mentioning Syria, but is hoping that Iraq's government will "advance their interests and aspirations through the political process." This is so bizarre it's laughable.
I don't know how many people have told me that they don't like the idea of the U.S. being "policeman of the world," but that's exactly what the U.S. has been since President Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of 1947. Every President since then has fulfilled that commitment till now, because the cost of a small military action was always better than a repeat of something as enormous as World War II. President Obama has repudiated that commitment, and the Mideast is turning into a mess because of it, just as New York city would turn into a mess if the police force stopped policing. Like it or not, America is the policeman of the world, and is already paying a price for the abrogation of that commitment. White House and AP
You'll recall that Russia's president Vladimir Putin kept promising to pull back his 50,000 troops from Ukraine's border, and nothing happened, week after week. Finally the troops were pulled back. But now, Nato's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is reporting that Russian troops are coming back, and that "at least a few thousand" are once again deployed along the border. A statement from Ukraine's government said that they'd identified two airborne divisions, and airborne assault brigade and a motorized rifle brigade at the border.
It's not known what the purpose of this Russian troop movement is. There are two possibilities:
We'll have to wait a few days to see which scenario is right. Washington Post and CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jun-14 World View -- President Obama orders more U.S. military involvement in Iraq thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Jun-2014)
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U.S. is flying F-18 surveillance missions over Iraq
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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After send 375 special forces troops to Iraq earlier this week, President Obama's administration has authorized F-18 surveillance missions over Iraq. The administration has also received a request from the Iraq's government to begin air strikes against targets from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). However, air strikes would require special forces on the ground to identify targets.
F-18s are not traditional surveillance aircraft, but are attack aircraft, and they're big and loud. It's believed that the intent is to frighten the ISIS militants with a lot of noise. Fox News
For years, China has been taking actions to annex the entire South China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China has been using a "salami slicing" strategy, annexing the South China Sea bit by bit, threatening anyone who stands in its way with military action. The confrontation between China and the Philippines has gotten moderately worse in the last few months.
But the confrontation between China and Vietnam has become extremely bitter in the last few months, after China set up an oil rig and started drilling for oil in a region in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). China and Vietnam have been ramming each other's ships, and Chinese warships frequently train their high-pressure water hoses on exhaust pipes, antennae, radars and windows of Vietnamese ships, in order to disable to sink them. Last month, the oil rig triggered anti-China demonstrations across Vietnam that turned violent, killing five Chinese nationals and injuries to hundreds more.
So China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi visited Hanoi on Wednesday, to meet with Vietnam's foreign minister Pham Binh Minh and prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung, the media "expressed hope" that this would cool things off.
So when Yang and Minh first met and shook hands, they did so with only the faintest of smiles. According to Minh:
"Our meeting ... demonstrates that the two parties and states of Vietnam and China have the desire for dialogue to settle the current complicated situation in the East Sea."
According to China's foreign ministry, Yang replied:
"The most urgent thing is for Vietnam to stop its interference and harassment, stop hyping up the issue and stop whipping up disagreement to create new disputes, and properly deal with the aftermath of the recent serious incidents of violence."
China Daily and Thanh Nien News (Hanoi) and Reuters
The World Health Organization (WHO) believed that the Ebola virus breakout in Spring of this year had fizzled out, as there hadn't been any new deaths from the virus since April. But in recent days, seven people have died in Monrovia, Liberia's capital city. It's now believed that Ebola is still spreading in west Africa, where the death toll now exceeds 330. The outbreak began in Guinea, and later spread to Sierra Leone and Liberia. The new deaths have spurred fears that the outbreak is no longer under control, as authorities had previously said. VOA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jun-14 World View -- Chinese and Vietnamese officials meet without smiling and agree on nothing thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Jun-2014)
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Was the 2003 ground invasion of Iraq a mistake?
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Iraq's prime minister Nouri al-Maliki in the past has suggested that Saudi Arabia is supporting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), but on Tuesday he used the strongest language ever:
"We hold them responsible for supporting these groups financially and morally and for its outcome - which includes crimes that may qualify as genocide: the spilling of Iraqi blood, the destruction of Iraqi state institutions and historic and religious sites."
The Saudis vehemently deny this, but this is a sign of the gathering sectarian conflict in the Mideast. Reuters and NBC News
Many politicians and journalists are expressing concern about a possible "Sunni versus Shia civil war" within Iraq. This brings back memories of the 2004-2008 period, when the loony left, including NBC News and the NY Times, were using the threat of a civil war as a way of expressing contempt for President George Bush. Now they're talking about civil war again, but as a way of expressing sympathy for their beloved President Barack Obama.
As I wrote dozens of times during that period, Iraq was and is in a generational Awakening era, and so a civil war was and is impossible. In the 2004-2008 period, there was some violence between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias, but in the end, the two groups cooperated in expelling al-Qaeda in Iraq via the "Anbar Awakening." I wrote about this in my lengthy April 2007 analysis, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq", which was the best and most accurate analysis of the Iraq war from any media source at that time.
The key to understanding the relationships between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias is to look at their last two generational crisis wars, the 1920 Great Iraqi Revolution, in which the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias united against Britain, and the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, in which the Iraq Sunnis and Shias united against Iran. It's important to understand that the 1980s was was not a sectarian war between Shias and Sunnis; it was an ethnic war between Arabs and Persians. So it's not surprising that in 2007, Shias and Sunnis united again to expel al-Qaeda in Iraq in the Anbar Awakening.
There is SOME violence between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias, but there's a huge difference between "some violence" and "full-scale civil war." A major turning point in the Iraq war occurred when al-Qaeda in Iraq bombed the Shiite al-Askariya shrine in Samarra in February, 2006. This inflamed the Shiites, who had previously been restrained, to the extent that they began launching death squads against the Sunni jihadists. However, by the beginning of 2007, that violence was tapering off.
This year's invasion of Iraq by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has, once again, triggered some sectarian violence between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias. However, in 2007, the sectarian violence was being driven by al-Qaeda in Iraq, and the sectarian violence today is being driven by ISIS. Many Iraqi Sunnis have joined the foreign fighters in ISIS in this sectarian violence, but multiple reports indicate that the Iraqi Sunnis are fighting against the government of prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, not against Shias in general.
According to reports, the foreign fighters in ISIS are attempting to impose strict Sharia law on Mosul and other captured cities. My guess is that the Iraqi citizens are not going to like this.
If you want to understand Iraq today, a good place to start is in Iraq's previous generational Awakening era, the 1930s, following the 1920 Great Iraqi Revolution. In my 2007 article, referenced above, I quoted at length from the Library of Congress history of Iraq during that period. It's well worthwhile to read that entire history, but here I'll only quote a couple of excerpts.
First, here's what happened during the 1920 crisis war, which was a rebellion against British rule:
"Ath Thawra al Iraqiyya al Kubra, or The Great Iraqi Revolution (as the 1920 rebellion is called), was a watershed event in contemporary Iraqi history. For the first time, Sunnis and Shias, tribes and cities, were brought together in a common effort. In the opinion of Hanna Batatu, author of a seminal work on Iraq, the building of a nation-state in Iraq depended upon two major factors: the integration of Shias and Sunnis into the new body politic and the successful resolution of the age-old conflicts between the tribes and the riverine cities and among the tribes themselves over the food-producing flatlands of the Tigris and the Euphrates. The 1920 rebellion brought these groups together, if only briefly; this constituted an important first step in the long and arduous process of forging a nation-state out of Iraq's conflict-ridden social structure."
Next, here's what happened during Iraq's generational Awakening era in the 1930s:
"On October 13, 1932, Iraq became a sovereign state, and it was admitted to the League of Nations. Iraq still was beset by a complex web of social, economic, ethnic, religious, and ideological conflicts, all of which retarded the process of state formation. The declaration of statehood and the imposition of fixed boundaries triggered an intense competition for power in the new entity. Sunnis and Shias, cities and tribes, shaykhs and tribesmen, Assyrians and Kurds, pan-Arabists and Iraqi nationalists--all fought vigorously for places in the emerging state structure. Ultimately, lacking legitimacy and unable to establish deep roots, the British-imposed political system was overwhelmed by these conflicting demands."
This is a pattern that Iraq follows: During generational crisis wars, when the survival of the nation and its way of life is at stake, the Sunnis and Shias unite, and nationalism trumps sectarianism. (Think of America in World War II.)
But during the political battles in the decades that follow the war (think of America in the 1960s), sectarianism trumps nationalism, and the country splits into sectarian and ethnic political battles.
That pattern is being repeated today. Iraqi Sunnis and Shias have many bitter disagreements, but they unite when they have to.
Based on the above analysis, here's what I conclude:
In a sense, the sectarian war in Iraq is still a side show. The real war continues in Syria, and the sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias throughout the Mideast will be the real war.
There's a lot of talk about who's to blame - Bush or Obama - for the current debacle in Iraq. So to start with, let's point out that the war in Iraq didn't begin in 2003. It began in 1991. And the Bill Clinton administration had several major and highly visible run-ins with Saddam Hussein over the latter's refusal to allow inspections for weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). The Clinton administration was bombing Iraq almost daily when Bush came into office.
The 2003 ground invasion did not occur because we felt bad for the 75,000 or so Iraqis that Saddam was killing every year. It occurred because of a nationwide -- indeed, worldwide -- panic over Saddam's WMDs. He had used them against Iran in 1988, and he had refused United Nations inspections to determine whether he was still manufacturing them, which only increased the sense of panic.
Some people like to point out that France's prime minister, Jacques Chirac, said that Saddam had no WMDs. It's hard to understand how he would know that, especially since there was some evidence that Saddam himself didn't know he no longer had any stores of WMDs. But later investigations revealed what was going on with Chirac.
Jacques Chirac, Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and U.N. secretary general Kofi Annan were all implicated in skimming hundreds of millions of dollars from Iraq's "Oil for Food" program. This was discovered when a list of the corrupt officials was found in Iraq's Oil Ministry after the war. In other words, Chirac, Putin and Annan didn't care how many people were slaughtered by Saddam's WMDs; the three of them were just cheap crooks that didn't want their corruption to be discovered, no matter how many people were killed.
Finally, would have happened without the 2003 ground invasion? Former British prime minister Tony Blair recently pointed out that Saddam would also have been subjected to the 2011 Arab Awakening, like all the other dictators in the region, and that the current turmoil would have occurred anyway. But that isn't the worst of it.
Iran had already been victimized by Saddam's WMDs. If the U.S. had simply backed out and let Saddam do what he wanted, then Iran would have continued to believe that Saddam had stores of WMDs. Iran would have sped up its nuclear bomb development program, and probably would have developed chemical and biological weapons themselves. In that case, within a few years, we would have had Syria, Iraq, and Iran, all possessing weapons of mass destruction, and ready to use them.
So, whether you like the 2003 ground invasion or not, things would have been MUCH worse without it.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Jun-2014)
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Kenya suffers worst terrorist attack since Westgate Mall attack
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The Somalia terrorist group al-Shabaab is claiming responsibility for an "orgy of violence" on the town of Mpeketoni, on the coast of Kenya about 25 miles from the Indian Ocean, killing 50 people. The terrorist attack particularly targeted a group of soccer fans who were together at a venue showing the World Cup matches. This was the worst terrorist attack since the three-day attack on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi Kenya, in September of last year, for which al-Shabaab also claimed responsibility. Like the Westgate mall attack, and like last week's attack terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, the attack was well planned and sophisticated, as al-Qaeda linked terrorist attacks generally exhibit greater complexity and sophistication. Standard Media (Kenya) and Reuters
Syrian warplanes struck two separate convoys belonging to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) inside of Iraq. The Syrian planes struck on Saturday with the help of Iranian intelligence, according to sources. Apparently we're now allies of the Syria's president, the genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad. Fox News
President Obama notified Congress on Monday that about 275 U.S. military personnel are deploying to Iraq to provide support and security for U.S. personnel and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Obama also said the troops are equipped for combat and will remain in Iraq until the security situation becomes such that they are no longer needed. The White House is considering other military options, and is having discussions with Iran. USA Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jun-14 World View -- U.S. sending 275 troops back into Iraq to protect embassy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Jun-2014)
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Pakistan launches major military action against Taliban
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Here's a collection of facts that I gleaned from the Sunday news talk shows and from some media reports:
LA Times and Israel National News and Slate
I listened to numerous interviews on the Sunday morning news talk shows, and I felt the best one was the CNN interview with South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham:
DONNA BASH: And, Senator, on the issue of Iraq, I know that you have said that you think U.S. airstrikes is the only answer right now. But I want you and our viewers to look at something, the toll so far when it comes to Iraq, 4,424 deaths, wounded, 32,239, and then the cost of money, $770 billion. I have got to ask the question that I'm sure so many Americans out there watching are going to ask. Why spend one more dollar or risk one more life?GRAHAM: Because Iraq and Syria combined are going to be the staging area for the next 9/11 if we don't do something about it. The people holding ground in Iraq also hold ground in Syria. Economic instability that comes from a collapsed Iraq will affect gas prices and our economic recovery. But the main reason is, if ISIS is not dealt with, that's the staging area for a new attack on the United States. They -- the -- the predecessor -- they're the follow-on to al Qaeda in Iraq.
What they will do is use the area between Baghdad, Kurdistan and Syria to operate with impunity. They have a lot of wealth. They will plan an attack against our country. And my biggest fear is that they're going to march toward Jordan.
And I hope America understands that, if the king of Jordan goes, if he's the victim of these guys, then the whole Mideast is in turmoil.
BASH: And you really thinks that's possible?
GRAHAM: Yes.
GLORIA BORGER: What makes -- what makes you think they have the organization to pull something like that off?
GRAHAM: What makes you think they don't?
Look what's happened. Look what's happened. They have basically occupied a portion of Syria. They -- they took the second largest city in Iraq. They're going into Baghdad.
My number one goal is, let us stop them from going into Baghdad, not the Iranians. If the central government in Iraq collapses -- and that's their goal -- they're trying to get the Iraqi government to collapse -- the Iranians dominate the south. They will own all the resources in the south.
These guys will operate from Baghdad to Kurdistan, all the way into Syria. They will consolidate economic and military power. They will march towards Jordan and Lebanon. And they will use that space to attack us. If Baghdad falls, if the central government falls, a disaster awaits us of monumental proportions.
BASH: Now, the question about the leadership there now, Prime Minister Maliki, he is somebody who perhaps has not done all the things that the U.S. should have -- wanted them to do, which is, I think, an understatement.
GRAHAM: Yes.
BASH: So is he the right man for the -- to lead Iraq right now?
GRAHAM: No. Stop the march on Baghdad. Form a new government. Send Petraeus and Crocker over, somebody who knows...
BORGER: How do you form a new government? It's a democracy.
GRAHAM: There are plenty of voices over there.
He [al-Maliki] should resign. He's incapable of bringing the Sunnis back into the fold. Three things have happened in 2010 and '11 to create this. How did we get there should be the question. Al Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor to ISIS, was on their back, just about gone. Syria blows up. They get reinforcements from Syria into Iraq.
Maliki withdrawals from the coalition. He becomes a sectarian leader. Obama's administration is completely hands-off, and we withdraw troops in 2011. That's the perfect storm.
BORGER: But whose fault was that? You know, the...
GRAHAM: That's President Obama's fault.
BORGER: Why is that President Obama's fault? Maliki didn't want to leave a residual force there.
GRAHAM: Bush -- no, that is not true. That is absolutely a lie.
I was there on the ground, at the request of Secretary Clinton. Maliki, Barzani and the Sunnis were willing to accept an American force. We wanted the agreement to go through parliament, which would have been a disaster.
They got what they wanted. The Obama administration wanted to say: I ended the war in Iraq. I'm going to end the war in Afghanistan.
This was as predictable as the sun rising in the east. I blame President Obama mightily for a hands-off policy when it comes to Iraq.
BASH: Because, I mean, we can debate this probably for a long time, because Maliki...
GRAHAM: Look forward.
BASH: OK. So, looking forward, Iran, Bloomberg News had an interesting op-ed today, saying that they are sort of the frenemies of the U.S. right now in Iraq. And people might not realize this, that Iran, who is generally no friend of the U.S., is now potentially working -- going to work with the U.S. on Iraq. ... How -- does that make you feel comfortable or comfortable?
GRAHAM: No. Hell no, it doesn't.
Why did we deal with Stalin? Because he was not as bad as Hitler. The Iranians can provide some assets to make sure Baghdad doesn't fall. We need to coordinate with the Iranians. And the Turks need to get in the game and get the Sunni Arabs back into the game, form a new government without Maliki.
But, yes, I don't want Iran to dominate Iraq. And that's where they're headed. If the central government falls, the Iranians are going on the Shia area of -- of Iraq, the south. Don't the Iranians save Baghdad. Let us save Baghdad, so there will be a chance at a second government.
BORGER: Do you -- is it your prediction that, eventually, this White House will go for airstrikes?
GRAHAM: I think they have to. And it's stunning to me that nobody in Congress is saying, you have got to come to us first. Everybody in Congress is scared to death of what's going to happen in Iraq. They won't come out and admit it. But nobody is saying, Mr. President, don't use airpower. The air force in Iraq, I think, has been grounded. But Nic will know that better than I do.
A U.S. Congressional delegation is in Nigeria to discuss the terrorist group Boko Haram, which continues to abduct schoolgirls. According to Texas congressman Steve Stockman, the U.S. is planning military action in Nigeria:
"We get briefed by the military and pending the approval of the government of Nigeria and our government, we plan to take action, but I don’t think we are going specifics this time; it was a classified briefing. We stand ready to help and as soon as our government and Nigerian government approves, we will take action.What I want to say is that I think what it is right now is to work with the Nigerian government in training of the military. I want to emphasize again here that we have come all these miles to say that our Congress stands ready to cooperate and the government in a manner that is appropriate and with the consent of Nigerian government. And I want to emphasize the need for the Victims Relief Fund because there is so much suffering going on by the young girls and the their families that have been touched by this violence."
World Stage Group (Lagos, Nigeria)
Last week's massive terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday has shocked the nation, and pressured the government to order the army to do something it's never done before: to go in and clean out the hideouts and weapons stores in the North Waziristan Agency in Pakistan's tribal area that are making the terrorist strikes possible.
According to a Pakistan army statement:
"On the directions of the government, armed forces of Pakistan have launched a comprehensive operation against foreign and local terrorists who are hiding in sanctuaries in North Waziristan Agency. The operation has been named Zarb-e-Azb. ...Using North Waziristan as a base, these terrorists had waged a war against the state of Pakistan and had been disrupting our national life in all its dimensions, stunting our economic growth and causing enormous loss of life and property. They had also paralyzed life within the [North Waziristan] agency and had perpetually terrorized the entire peace loving and patriotic local population.
Our valiant armed forces have been tasked to eliminate these terrorists regardless of hue and color, along with their sanctuaries. With the support of the entire nation, and in coordination with other state institutions and law enforcement agencies, these enemies of the state will be denied space anywhere across the country. As always, armed forces of Pakistan will not hesitate in rendering any sacrifice for the motherland."
An unnamed official says, "Thousands of troops will participate in this action. You can roughly say 25,000 to 30,000 troops will be involved in the operation."
Reports indicate that many people, both civilians and militants, have left North Waziristan in the last few days because the army offensive was anticipated.
The prime minister Nawaz Sharif has tried everything possible to avoid this moment, including attempted "peace talks" with the Taliban that could never have succeeded. This is a very significant change in direction for Pakistan. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jun-14 World View -- The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Jun-2014)
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Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49
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Here's a Saturday afternoon BBC interview with Professor Fawaz Gerges, London School of Economics, that I transcribed, in which both the interviewer and the interviewee expressed utter astonishment at the day's news:
INTERVIEWER: "Let's start with Iran. Now they say they're willing to cooperate with the United States. I can't believe those words are coming out of my mouth. What would be the motivation behind that? They do simply fear ISIS, and what could happen to Iraq? ..."GERGES: "One of the most important developments to come out of this particular crisis is the convergence of interests of the United States and Iran. Both powers have vested interests in stopping the ISIS surge. Iraq is the most pivotal ally of Iran. And the United States fears that ISIS could really present a threat not only to Iraq's integrity, but for regional stabilities.
I cannot believe it myself. The Iranian leadership OPENLY and PUBLICLY calling on the United States to intervene in Iraq. A radical departure from Iran's previous position.
Remember, Chris, for your viewers, Iran played a fundamental role in nudging its allies to force the US out in 2011. Now, both powers -- and I have no doubt in my mind that both powers are talking secretly. Even now, both powers are not talking about it, because they're planning contingency plans, because only the United States and Iran could regroup and help the Iraqi forces to consolidate that power."
What they were talking about is a speech by Iran's president Hassan Rouhani saying that they would help the U.S. confront "terrorist groups" in Iraq and Syria, referring principally to the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). According to Rouhani:
"If the Iraqi government asks us for help, we may provide any assistance the Iraqi nation would like us to provide in the fight against terrorism.All countries need to embark on joint effort regarding terrorism.
At the moment, it's the government of Iraq and the people of Iraq that are fighting terrorism.
We have not seen the US do anything for now. Any time the Americans start to take action against terrorist groups, we can consider that."
There are reports that Iran has already sent two battalions of troops into Iraq, though they deny it.
President Obama is offering to help Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki with the U.S. military, but with "no boots on the ground." The aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush has been moved into the Persian Gulf to provide Obama with options for possible airstrikes.
We now have a sectarian Sunni versus Shia conflict growing in the Mideast, and it looks like Iran and the U.S. are going to be allies. Reports indicate the White House have been "surprised" by how quickly all of this is happening. Obviously the White House doesn't read my web site, because these are all things that I've been predicting for years, based on Generational Dynamics analyses.
The Generational Dynamics web site is unique in the world. I'll repeat the challenge that I've issued repeatedly since 2005: Find me a politician, analyst, journalist or web site anywhere in the world with anything close to the predictive success of Generational Dynamics and this web site. I know that none exists, because I've looked.
So those of you on both the left and the right who have send me hate mail from time to time should be aware that you're wrong and I'm right -- or more precisely, Generational Dynamics is right. Anyone can have an ideological opinion and rant about it, but Generational Dynamics is not an ideological opinion, but a methodology that applies System Dynamics and Chaos Theory to generational trends and flows, and always seems to be right.
I'm completely schizophrenic about this. The part of me that's into math and computers and analytics is thrilled that Generational Dynamics seems to work consistently. But the part of me that's human and deals every day with stories about starving children, schools blown to smithereens, and "industrial strength" torture is extremely saddened and depressed. I have little doubt that one day, undoubtedly after my death, Generational Dynamics will be regarded as a major advance in historical analysis. BBC and Independent (London)
The Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of how much wholesale prices are increasing, fell 0.2% in May, indicating that wholesale prices fell, rather than increasing. That is, instead of seeing inflation, we're seeing deflation. Once month's data isn't necessarily dispositive, but the PPI has been close to zero for months, and gone negative four times in the last year.
The prediction that I've been making for years is that the economy is in a deflationary spiral. This directly contradicts almost all mainstream economists and politicians who have been predicting inflation or hyperinflation because of low interest rates and quantitative easing. As in the case of Iran being our ally in a Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict, Generational Dynamics has been consistently right and mainstream economists, pundits, analysts and politicians have been wrong. Bloomberg and Reuters
Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko vowed to retaliate against pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine, after a military plane was shot down by a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile, presumably supplied by Russia, killing 49 people on board on Saturday morning.
The missile attack triggered a pro-Ukrainian protest in Kiev that turned violent. Several hundred protesters hurled eggs and paint at the Russian embassy in Kiev, and other protesters turned over cars that carried diplomatic plates. Kiev police looked on and did nothing to stop the violent protests.
The fighting continues to escalate in Ukraine, thanks to tanks, heavy weapons and "volunteers" supplied by Russia. Ukraine and Russia are in a generational Crisis era, so it's quite possible that the conflict will spiral into a full-scale war. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jun-14 World View -- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Jun-2014)
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U.S. State Dept. confirms Russian tanks in Ukraine
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The "blitzkrieg" attack by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on cities and villages across Iraq is panicking residents of Baghdad as the fighting draw near. Most of the cities captured by ISIS so far have large Sunni Muslim populations that are disaffected and furious because of the contemptuous treatment they've received from the government of Shia president Nouri al-Maliki, and because of their abandonment by the US forces that they worked hard with to drive out Al-Qaeda in Iraq during the 2007 Anbar Awakening.
Now that those same Sunni populations are joining with ISIS, to the extent that even Sunni soldiers in Iraq's army are deserting their posts, Shia populations in Baghdad and eastern Iraq are panicking. On Friday, the Iranian-born Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most powerful Shia cleric in Iraq, issued a statement calling on his followers to fight ISIS. The statement was delivered in a sermon by his spokesman Sheikh Abdulmehdi al-Karbalai:
"All citizens who are able to bear arms and fight the terrorists in defense of their nation, people and holy sites should volunteer and join the security forces to achieve this holy aim.Iraq is facing a grave and significant challenge and the terrorists aim not only to control some of the provinces but instead they stated that they are targeting all the provinces, especially Baghdad and Karbala and Najaf. Thus the responsibility of stopping them and fighting is the responsibility of all and is not restricted to any one creed."
The statement added that anyone who sacrifices his life "in defense of his country, people, and honor, will be a martyr."
Reports indicate that young men from Shia communities have begun to mobilize and form militias, although Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is calling on followers to wait for further instructions.
At the same time, there are reports that Iran is sending weapons and advisers from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) to aid the Shia government. IRGC leader Major General Qassem Suleimani is in Baghdad to meet militia leaders and tribal chiefs defending the capital.
Iran's president Hassan Rouhani promised that Iran would "not allow the supporters of terrorists to disrupt security and stability of Iraq through exporting terrorism to Iraq."
This is essentially a call to sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias within Iraq. These is already a sectarian war next door in Syria, and this effectively joins the two together. LA Times and BBC and International Business Times
According to an unnamed U.S. official in President Obama's administration speaking to CNN, they were caught off guard by the speed with which the ISIL forces moved across Iraq:
"We've been watching the intelligence continually and the fractures in Iraq that have grown as a result of the underlying political environment and lack of inclusive governance. If anything was surprising, it's only the speed at which the situation continued to deteriorate over the past few days and the apparent ease at which the (Iraqi security forces) abandoned their units and positions."
On Friday, President Obama made his second statement about Iraq in two days:
"Yesterday, I convened a meeting with my National Security Council to discuss the situation there, and this morning I received an update from my team. Over the last several days, we’ve seen significant gains made by ISIL, a terrorist organization that operates in both Iraq and in Syria. In the face of a terrorist offensive, Iraqi security forces have proven unable to defend a number of cities, which has allowed the terrorists to overrun a part of Iraq’s territory. And this poses a danger to Iraq and its people. And given the nature of these terrorists, it could pose a threat eventually to American interests as well."
He said that the administration would be preparing military options, but emphasized that no troops will be sent into Iraq. Analysts have suggested that these options include drone surveillance and air strikes, and possibly limited actions by special forces.
He added that the government of Nouri al-Maliki would have to do its part to set aside sectarian differences:
"So we have enormous interests there, and obviously our troops and the American people and the American taxpayers made huge investments and sacrifices in order to give Iraqis the opportunity to chart a better course, a better destiny.But ultimately, they're going to have to seize it. As I said before, we are not going to be able to do it for them.
And, you know, given the very difficult history that we've seen in Iraq, I think that any objective observer would recognize that in the absence of accommodation among the various factions inside of Iraq, various military actions by the United States, by any outside nation, are not going to solve those problems over the long term and not going to deliver the kind of stability that we need."
In response, al-Maliki blamed President Obama for flip-flopping on Syria, and allowing the Syrian civil war to spill over into Iraq.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I can guarantee that this kind of "accommodation" among the Sunni and Shia faction will NOT occur. So what will Obama do then? Answer: Faced with an increasingly powerful ISIS, the U.S. military will get more heavily drawn into Iraq and Syria.
It was almost ten years ago that I predicted, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran and the U.S. would become allies in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. I've repeated that prediction dozens of times. Ten years ago that prediction seemed intuitively ludicrous, but now we see that it's coming true. For two years, America has been pulling away from its old ally, Saudi Arabia, and it coming closer to its new ally, Iran.
This is how these trend predictions work. Ten years ago, all I could tell you was the trend. I could not have predicted any of the details, such as an ISIS succeeding in a "blitzkrieg" attack across Iraq that caught the Obama administration by surprise. But that's how it always happens. It's like a pressure cooker on a stove. You can identify the trend -- that the pressure was getting higher and higher. You could predict that, at some point in the future, the pressure will be so great that the pressure cooker has to explode, but you can't say when. Then when it finally happens, there's no time to do anything, and if you happen to be standing next to it, then you're dead.
The same is true of many other Generational Dynamics predictions that I've posted over the years. I can tell you with 100% certainty that a major financial crisis and stock market crash are coming, but I can't tell you when. But when it happens, almost all your stock market savings will be lost. And the crash will happen so quickly that you won't be able to do a thing about it. Only the bankers who caused the financial crisis in the first place will get their money out quickly. Everyone else will lose. CNN and Washington Post
As clashes continue in east Ukraine between Ukraine's security forces and pro-Russian separatists, video have emerged of Russian tanks and weapons coming across the border from Russia. On Friday, the U.S. State Dept. confirmed this:
"In the last three days, a convoy of three T-64 tanks, several BM-21 or Grad multiple rocket launchers and other military vehicles crossed from Russia into Ukraine near the Ukrainian town of Snizhne. This is unacceptable. We are confident that these tanks came from Russia."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jun-14 World View -- U.S. and Iran move to help Iraq's al-Maliki stop ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Jun-2014)
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Foreign exchange price fixing will exceed libor scandal in criminality
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The terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday did not achieve its primary objective of hijacking an aircraft and holding its passengers hostage. Nonetheless, it represents a more sophisticated kind of attack, following the model of previous major attacks that were more like complex military actions. One is Mumbai's '26/11' three-day terrorist attack in 2008, and another is the three-day attack on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi Kenya, in September of last year.
Apparently there had been Taliban sleeper cells planted in Karachi weeks or months before. These cells provided shelter, weapons, explosives, transport and intelligence to the terrorists who eventually carried out the attack. As in the other cases, there were a series of well-planned attacks designed to defeat and kill layers of security and take control of the target.
It's no longer a "simple" case of a suicide bomber walking into a shopping center or mosque to kill as many people as possible. Now there are more complex objectives, with huge financial rewards to fund future projects.
Pakistan's government now has to face some hard realities. The "peace talks" with the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP), which has claimed credit for the attack, were never more than a joke anyway, but they did provide a fig leaf to hide government officials' desperation. The TTP is headquartered in Pakistan's tribal area, but analysts point out that the army has only made half-hearted attempts to defeat them there, not being willing to go in and clean out the hideouts and weapons stores that are making the terrorist strikes possible. Dawn (Pakistan) and Indian Express
President Obama is facing a dilemma about responding to the collapse of what he considered a major achievement, ending the war in Iraq. Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has executed a "blitzkrieg" in Iraq, giving it control of huge swaths of land, millions of dollars of money stolen from banks, and huge volumes of heavy weapons stolen from weapons stores. When combined with ISIS's control of parts of neighboring Syria, ISIS is on the verge establishing a new "Sunni Islamic Caliphate" nation, bounded on the west by Bashar al-Assad's rump Syria, and bounded in the east by Nouri al-Maliki's rump Iraq. It's not certain that ISIS will be able to indefinitely hold all this territory, but if it does, then the territory will serve as a base for terrorist and military attacks on other nations.
According to President Obama at a press briefing on Thursday:
"Well, this is an area that we’ve been watching with a lot of concern not just over the last couple of days but over the last several months, and we’ve been in close consultation with the Iraqi government. Over the last year, we have been providing them additional assistance to try to address the problems that they have in Anbar, in the northwestern portions of the country, as well as the Iraqi and Syrian border. That includes, in some cases, military equipment. It includes intelligence assistance. It includes a whole host of issues.But what we’ve seen over the last couple of days indicates the degree to which Iraq is going to need more help. It’s going to need more help from us, and it’s going to need more help from the international community.
So my team is working around the clock to identify how we can provide the most effective assistance to them. I don’t rule out anything, because we do have a stake in making sure that these jihadists are not getting a permanent foothold in either Iraq or Syria, for that matter.
Part of the challenge ... is that the politics of Shia and Sunni inside of Iraq, as well as the Kurds, is either going to be a help in dealing with this jihadist situation, or it’s going to be a hindrance. And frankly, over the last several years, we have not seen the kind of trust and cooperation develop between moderate Sunni and Shia leaders inside of Iraq, and that accounts in part for some of the weakness of the state, and that then carries over into their military capacity.
So I think it’s fair to say that in our consultations with the Iraqis there will be some short-term, immediate things that need to be done militarily, and our national security team is looking at all the options. But this should be also a wakeup call for the Iraqi government. There has to be a political component to this so that Sunni and Shia who care about building a functioning state that can bring about security and prosperity to all people inside of Iraq come together and work diligently against these extremists. And that is going to require concessions on the part of both Shia and Sunni that we haven’t seen so far.
The last point I’ll make -- what’s happened over the last couple of days I think underscores the importance of the point that I made at my West Point speech: the need for us to have a more robust regional approach to partnering and training partner countries throughout the Middle East and North Africa. We’re not going to be able to be everywhere all the time, but what we can do is to make sure that we are consistently helping to finance, train, advise military forces with partner countries, including Iraq, that have the capacity to maintain their own security. And that is a long and laborious process, but it’s one that we need to get started."
Phrases like "there will be some short-term, immediate things that need to be done militarily," and "There has to be a political component to this so that Sunni and Shia who care about building a functioning state that can bring about security and prosperity to all people inside of Iraq come together and work diligently" indicate to me that President Obama still doesn't have a clue what's going on in the world.
There's a great deal of fury growing against President Obama. Statements like "American blood drove al-Qaeda out of Iraq, and Obama has squandered all of it," or "I fought in Afghanistan, and Obama has given the worst of the worst of the Taliban a free pass" are increasingly common. White House
Britain's government is proposing legislation to punish foreign exchange rigging with criminal sanctions, including prison.
This is another case where bankers from different banks colluded with one another to defraud their customers making currency conversions from one currency to another. One banker would call his pal at another bank to let him know that some client was about to exchange, say, $10 billion for euros. The two bankers would collude on front-running and setting the exchange rate so that when the transaction went through, a few minutes later, the bankers could pocket hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Readers may recall the Libor scandal that began a couple of years ago, where bankers would collude with one another to fix interest rates. Those actions may have cost clients hundreds of millions of dollars, but the foreign exchange market is much bigger, $5.3 trillion, and clients may have lost hundreds of billions of dollars over the years.
It's now been over ten years that Gen-X "financial engineers" flooded into banks and knowingly created tens of trillions of dollars of fraudulent synthetic securities backed by faulty subprime mortgages, and not a single one has gone to jail. The worst that happens is that the bank gets fined. But the individual crooks who caused the global financial crisis keep the millions of dollars that they gained fraudulently, and are free to go on in their jobs to find other ways to defraud investors. The Libor scandal proves that.
Now we're going through the same process again, with the foreign exchange price-fixing scandal. Supposedly, UBS will pay $8 billion in fines, Deutsche Bank AG will pay $4.4 billion, and Citibank will pay $4.3 billion.
Supposedly, this time is different because legislation is being proposed to make foreign exchange fixing a criminal activity. But defrauding clients is already a criminal activity. All of the fraudulent activities of these bankers is criminal activity. The problem is not the laws, but that the criminals are rewarded by letting them keep their money, and they're not prosecuted and sent to jail. AFP and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jun-14 World View -- President Obama considers military action in Iraq thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Jun-2014)
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The collapse of Iraq's army
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Iraqi citizens are panicking as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) continued its sweep across Iraq on Wednesday, capturing another city, Saddam Hussein's home town Tikrit, the day after capturing Mosul, a city with 1.6 million people.
At the same time, over half a million people have fled their homes in Mosul, either becoming homeless refugees or hoping to be taken in by family members elsewhere. The exodus surged out of concerns that Mosul would quickly run out of food and gasoline and, according to several reports, out of fear that the Baghdad government will begin bombing Mosul, as he bombed cities in Anwar Province earlier.
Iraq's desperate Shia prime minister Nouri al-Maliki appeared on television on Wednesday and ordered all military leaders who deserted their positions to be court-martialed. He also called on Shia militias to go out and fight the Sunni ISIS. This is essentially a call to sectarian war.
Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr whom readers may remember played a prominent role in opposing American forces in 2003 after Saddam Hussein's army had been quickly defeated, responded immediately to al-Maliki's call, saying:
"We’re ready to coordinate with some government entities to set up Al Salam Brigades to defend things that are sacred."
These Shia militias will have to face an ISIS that is an order of magnitude stronger than it was just a week ago, having gained momentum from the successful attacks on several villages and cities and, most important of all, having taken control of more than 200 U.S.-provided armored vehicles and masses of weaponry from stores in Mosul. It would not be unexpected if Iran supplies weapons and fighters to al-Sadr, just as it has to Syria and Hezbollah. Bloomberg and CNN
What astonishes most people is that a lightly armed group of about 1,000 ISIS fighters was able to overrun Mosul. Government forces in Mosul included two army divisions, numbering up to 25,000 soldiers, along with 10,000 federal police officers and some 30,000 local police officers. Amazingly, reports indicate that all of these security officers dropped their weapons and fled, leaving the city open to ISIS.
A lot of this can be explained from generational theory. Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, climaxing in 1988 with Saddam's use of chemical weapons, so Iraq is no in a generational Awakening era. Iraq's army fought brutally at that time, as all armies do during a generational crisis war, and are considered by many to have won the war. However, once the crisis war reaches a climax, people look back at the horrors and atrocities -- the enemy's and their own -- and they vow never to let that happen again. For America after World War II, that's why there was so much revulsion toward the Korean War in the 1950s, and so much opposition to the Vietnam war in the 1960s and 1970s.
So by the time of the 1991 Gulf War, Saddam's troops had little or no fight in them, and they lost quickly. That was still true in the 2003 ground war, and it's true today as the Sunni population has no will to fight against the ISIS invaders. According to several reports, positions in Iraq's army and security forces are among the best paid jobs available in Iraq today, and so many young men get these positions through bribery and corruption, and under the assumption that they won't have to do much fighting.
In the 2004-2008 time frame, I wrote many times about the unwillingness of Iraqis to fight. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from April, 2007.) I quoted a letter from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian terrorist who ran the al-Qaeda in Iraq, apparently for Osama bin Laden:
"Jihad here unfortunately [takes the form of] mines planted, rockets launched, and mortars shelling from afar. The Iraqi brothers still prefer safety and returning to the arms of their wives, where nothing frightens them. Sometimes the groups have boasted among themselves that not one of them has been killed or captured. We have told them in our many sessions with them that safety and victory are incompatible, that the tree of triumph and empowerment cannot grow tall and lofty without blood and defiance of death, that the [Islamic] nation cannot live without the aroma of martyrdom and the perfume of fragrant blood spilled on behalf of God, and that people cannot awaken from their stupor unless talk of martyrdom and martyrs fills their days and nights. The matter needs more patience and conviction. [Our] hope in God is great."
One of the most remarkable features of the Iraq war at that time is the there were no Iraqi suicide bombers. Fathers and mothers refused to let their sons become martyrs in this way. As a result, al-Zaquawi had to import young men from Saudi Arabia and Jordan to blow themselves up and become martyrs.
A few years have passed since then, and there's a new generation of Iraqis growing up, with no personal memory of the Iran/Iraq war, but there are still too many survivors around to be willing to risk fighting another war. So the Iraqi people of Mosul simply flee, and the Iraqi soldiers of the army drop their weapons and do the same thing. Al Monitor (Washington) and Bloomberg
The same war-weary Sunni population that drove the foreign fighters in Al-Qaeda in Iraq out of Anbar Province in 2007 are now completely disillusioned by the contempt directed at them both by the American administration led by Barack Obama, and by the contempt directed at them by the Shia al-Maliki government. The hearts and minds that the George Bush administration had won over to the American side are now willing to join ISIS as their only hope to improve their lives. At least they're unwilling to oppose ISIS.
This gives ISIS's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi a vision of turning Iraq into a hardline Sunni Islamic state. With the help of old supporters of Saddam Hussein, as well as other young men willing to join the fight, al-Baghdadi has Baghdad in his sights. Saddam was able to govern Iraq and its Shia majority by means of terror and torture, and al-Baghdadi may believe he can do the same. This will be alarming to Iran, which will not sit still and just let it happen. Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jun-14 World View -- ISIS and Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi sweep across Iraq, capture Tikrit thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Jun-2014)
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Thailand's military junta uses sexy 'army girls' to change minds
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The coup d’état by Thailand's army on May 22 overthrew the government of Yingluck Shinawatra but did not, as feared, lead to massive street protests. Nonetheless, for 2/3rds of the population that supported Yingluck, Thailand is no longer the stereotypical "land of smiles."
But the military junta is hoping to bring back some smiles by adopting a public relations campaign led by sexy "army girls," wearing short camouflage-style dresses and ammunition belt-style dog collars. The girls will sing and dance, and will host street parties with free food and music.
Thailand has imposed martial law, and anyone opposing junta rule risks being jailed. But whether playing to one Bangkok stereotype, the "sex capital of the world" will bring about a return to the other stereotype, "land of smiles," remains to be seen. Bangkok Post and Telegraph (London)
The jihadist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has taken control of Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, after Baghdad. Some 1300 ISIS fighters besieged the city, and took control of it in four days, as members of Iraq's army dropped their weapons and fled. The opened the jails and freed 2,400 prisoners.
Mosul is a major strategic prize for ISIS, being on the main export route for Iraqi oil, and a sophisticated center for transportation and commerce. Mosul is the second large city to fall to ISIS, the first being Fallujah in January. ISIS now controls a wide swath of land extending deep into Syria to the west and deep into Iraq to the east. Al-Qaeda has been trying for years to take control of an entire country, to mimic Iran's Great Islamic Revolution that created a hardline Shia Muslim state. Al-Qaeda has tried to create a hardline Sunni Muslim state in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Mali and others, but they've never succeeded. But now ISIS is succeeding where al-Qaeda has failed, by creating an as-yet unnamed Islamic state straddling Syria and Iraq. (ISIS is not part of al-Qaeda, from which it was ejected for not following orders in Syria.) CNN and Reuters
In a move of desperation, Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki declared a national state of emergency on Tuesday, after the fall of Mosul, and granted himself dictatorial powers.
Nouri al-Maliki has been president of Iraq since 2006, but has seen Iraq fall apart since the Americans withdrew in December 2011. The Shia leader practically declared war on the Sunnis immediately after the withdrawal. He ordered the arrest of 13 of the bodyguards of Sunni vice president Tareq al-Hashemi, leading several Sunni blocs in the parliament to boycott the government, causing the government to be destabilized.. Al-Maliki continually isolated the Sunnis, who are a minority in the population, and now he's paying the price for it. There were new elections held a couple of months ago, but a new government has not yet been formed because of the political chaos.
There are so many terrorist bombings in Iraq on an almost daily basis that they often don't even make the news outside of Iraq. But in fact, the number of deaths has been increasing almost every month since the Americans' withdrawal. In May alone, about 800 people were killed in terrorist bombings.
During the Iraq war under President George Bush, the American army pressed very hard to pacify the Sunni tribal chiefs and populations. President Bush's surge succeeded not just because additional troops were being sent in, but because the entire surge program was geared towards getting the Sunnis in Anbar province to expel Al-Qaeda in Iraq. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from April, 2007.)
Before he became president Barack Obama bitterly opposed the surge that led to victory in Iraq. After he became president, his only policy was to withdraw as quickly as possibly, with no concern for a relationship with the Sunnis, or with getting al-Maliki to develop a relationship with the Sunnis.
So it's not surprising today that there are many reports that the disaffected Sunnis in Anbar Province, the same ones that drove jihadists out in 2007, are now joining with the jihadists to oppose al-Maliki's government. This has been a major factor in the growing strength of ISIS in Anbar Province, on the border with Syria.
The other major factor in the growth of ISIS is the war in Syria. With no leadership from American to stop them, and especially with the major flip-flop after the chemical weapons "red line" was crossed last year, many Sunnis in Syria have come to believe that their only hope is to join ISIS in fighting Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. As I've written many times, Syria has become a magnet for jihadists around the world, and is now the world's biggest training ground for jihadists.
(The news this week is that Hillary Clinton says that as Secretary of State she favored helping the opposition rebels, in the beginning, before ISIS had a chance to form. I've always said that Clinton would have been a much better president than Obama, because she knows something about what's going on in the world, while Obama doesn't have a clue. And John Kerry, the current Secretary of State, is as dumb as a doorknob.)
All the Mideast trends I've been talking about for years are coming together. From Pakistan to Syria, we see the growth of Sunni militias, and possibly armies, while we see Shia militias grow in Lebanon, Iran, Iraq and Syria. ISIS is continuing to spread and gain strength, and a number of analysts believe Jordan will be its next target. BBC and Bloomberg and CS Monitor
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jun-14 World View -- Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Jun-2014)
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Massive Taliban attack at airport in Karachi, Pakistan
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Taliban militants dressed as security forces stormed the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday night and Monday morning, and at least 30 people, including 10 heavily armed gunmen, were killed in a battle that ran for six hours. Security forces announced on Monday morning that the attack had come to an end, but gunfire and bomb blasts continued to be heard into Monday evening.
Jinnah International Airport is the largest and most prestigious airport in Pakistan. It's named after Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan. Jinnah is revered in Pakistan, for his work with Mahatma Gandhi to bring about Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. When Gandhi was killed by a Hindu extremist in February, 1948, Jinnah called him "one of the greatest men produced by the Hindu community." Jinnah himself died later that year of tuberculosis.
Pakistanis are expressing outrage that the militants were able to bring into the airport a huge arsenal of suicide vests, grenades and rocket launchers, without being detected by any airport security. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and BBC and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)
Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) has claimed credit for the attack. The spectacular Karachi airport attack comes at a time when the Taliban itself is having problems. (See "29-May-14 World View -- Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two") The TTP claimed that the airport attack was revenge for an American drone strike in November 2011 that killed Hakimullah Mehsud, at that leader of the TTP, whose death led to the split.
In recent months, Pakistan's Nawaz Sharif has been pursuing "peace talks" with TTP. This pursuit was always something of a joke (like the Mideast "peace talks") because the TTP demanded TTP prisoners must be released from jail, the army must be withdrawn from the tribal areas where it has been fighting the Taliban, and the government must agree to impose Sharia law on the entire country. It turned out that Sharif did secretly order the release of 19 Taliban militants from jail, in order to appease the TTP leadership, and those released militants are presumably out somewhere killing more civilians.
The airport attack is being seen as a message that there is no chance of "peace" between Pakistan's government and the Taliban. They got their people out of jail, and they really can't hope to get anything more, so now they're continuing with violence.
Although Karachi is far away from Pakistan's federally administered tribal area (FATA), the airport attack is having a major effect there. The airport attacks have triggered fears that Pakistan's army will launch a new campaign against militants in the FATA, and reports indicate that in North Waziristan, some 25,000 to 50,000 people, mostly women and children, fearing violence from an imminent army attack. and AFP and Bloomberg
In a separate incident, as many as 23 people were killed when a suicide bomber stormed a hotel where about 300 Shia pilgrims were staying. The incident took place in the town of Taftan in Balochistan, on Pakistan's border with Iran. The attack came when a convoy of 10 buses stopped at two hotels. The buses were carrying the pilgrims returning from a visit to Shia holy sites in Iran, stopping for a rest in Taftan. There were two suicide bombers, but only one of them was able to detonate himself. The terror group Jeish Al-Islam claimed responsibility.
Numerous Taliban groups have been attacking Shia Muslims in Balochistan for years, and Iran's government has been extremely critical of Pakistan for not stopping these attacks. Lashkar-e-Janghvi (LeJ) has publicly and firmly announced as its goal the extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. On January 21, LeJ blew up a bus of Shia pilgrims returning from Iran, killing 24.
Presumably, Sunday's incident was the last straw for Iranian officials. After this incident, Iran closed its border with Pakistan for an indefinite period, and all activities pertaining to travelling and trade have been suspended. Pakistan Tribune and Fars News (Tehran)
One of the most fascinating comparisons to come out of Generational Dynamics theory is Iran today with America in the 1960s, at times when the countries were in respective generational Awakening eras, with the rise of young generations following the last crisis war. In 1960s America, the generations of traumatized survivors of the horrors of World War II were determined to prevent anything like that from happening again, so they adopted conservative social policies and fought to stop the communists in Vietnam. The generations that grew up after the war had no patience with these austere policies were widespread. The generational conflict climaxed with the resignation of President Nixon in 1974.
Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war, which climaxed in 1988 with Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons. During the last decade, I've reported frequently on the political clashes between the elders, the war's traumatized survivors, and the young people who do not like restriction on clothing and dating, who love Western tastes and fashion, and who do not particularly want to sea Israel pushed into the sea. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, who is definitely a traumatized war survivor, constantly expresses concerns about the younger generation. In an address over the weekend, he said the following:
"Individuals who moved with sharp revolutionary motivation have now changed their views by 180 degrees, and the meaning of the Revolution is incomprehensible to them and we must be vigilant so these characteristics do not penetrate the University’s Jihad complex.“The revolutionary path of University Jihad must be preserved. It must not be allowed for this important scientific center to be influenced by the political maze of 'leftists' and 'right-wingers.'
The production of destructive atomic bombs, is one hundred percent against humanity."
Just as America's generational split was settled with the resignation of Richard Nixon, Iran's generational split will finally be settled with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who is now 74 years old. AEI Iran Tracker
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Jun-2014)
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Pope Francis plants an olive tree for Mideast Peace
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Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi was inaugurated as president of Egypt on Sunday, to screams of delight from fans, particularly women. With more than a quarter of Egyptians living in poverty, he promised to cure poverty. He promised to build 26 new tourist resorts, eight new airports and 22 industrial estates. He's just like Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko, inaugurated on Saturday, India's Narendra Modi, inaugurated two weeks ago, France's François Hollande last year, and Barack Obama two years ago. They all make promises that can't be fulfilled, and which are often mathematically impossible, which means that they're all morons or liars or, more likely, both. In any event, they're all full of crap.
On the one hand, al-Sisi promised "There will no exclusion of any Egyptian from our march." But on the other hand, one thing that al-Sisi did not do is hold out any hand of reconciliation to his opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood, comprising 25-30% of the population.
"As for those who shed the blood of the innocents, there will be no place for them in this path.And I say it loud and clear, there will be no soft stand with anyone who resorts to violence or whoever wants to delay our march towards the future that we want for our children."
He called them terrorists and repeatedly said that national security was his highest priority. Since he ousted president Mohamed Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood last year as army chief, his army and security forces have killed or jailed thousands of Egyptians, many completely innocent. These include three reporters from Al-Jazeera, who apparently are jailed to get even with Qatar, Al-Jazeera's home country.
Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, sent al-Sisi a "cable of congratulations" on his inauguration, but did not attend the ceremony because he wasn't invited. Leaders of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates were invited, as were leaders of western countries. The kings of Jordan and Bahrain also attended. However, because of al-Sisi's violent ouster of democratically elected Morsi, and continued violence against innocent protesters, no top officials from Western countries were present. Many African Union leaders were also absent, as Egypt was suspended from the African Union two days after Morsi's ouster. BBC and Reuters and AP
Pope Francis held a historic and unprecedented prayer meeting for peace in the Mideast at the Vatican, together with Israel's president Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. The Pope said:
"Peacemaking calls for courage, much more so than warfare. It calls for the courage to say yes to meeting, and no to conflict. yes to dialog, and no to violence. Yes to negotiations, and no to hostilities. Yes to respecting deals, and no to provocation. Yes to sincerity, and no to being false. For all this, we need courage and strength of soul."
Shimon Peres said:
"I have come here from Jerusalem, the cradle of the three monotheistic religions, and the vibrant heart of the Jewish People. In Hebrew, the word Jerusalem and the word for peace, share the same root – Shalom. And it is with that prayer in our heart and that call to action that we stand together. From Jerusalem, I have come to call for Shalom – Peace. Peace between nations. Peace between faiths. Peace between people. Peace for our children."
Mahmoud Abbas said:
"God, answer my prayers for peace and justice in my homeland Palestine, the Middle East, and the rest of the world."
In order to guarantee peace, the three went beyond words to bring peace to the Mideast. In addition to their speeches and prayers, they planted an olive tree in the Vatican garden together, to show how people of the world could work together to build the world without conflict.
One Vatican analyst said, "In the Middle East, symbolic gestures and incremental steps are important." Other analysts around the world exclaimed, "Thank God! Peace at last! The Pope has brought peace to the Mideast! Thank God!" AP and Israel National News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jun-14 World View -- Egypt's al-Sisi makes laundry list of promises at inauguration thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Jun-2014)
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Jihadist violence across Iraq continues to grow
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Petro Poroshenko, who was elected president of Ukraine on May 25, promised to reunite Ukraine in peace in his inauguration speech on Saturday. He said, "I am calling on everyone who has taken arms in their hands — please lay down your arms," and he promised amnesty "for those who do not have blood on their hands." He insisted that the Crimean peninsula "was, is and will be Ukrainian," although he did not indicate how Ukraine can regain control of Crimea.
Poroshenko has spoken recently with Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and apparently they've known each other for a long time, as Poroshenko's candy empire does a lot of business in Russia. Poroshenko promised in his speech that he would open a corridor of "safe passage" to Russia, something that Russia had demanded in the U.N. Security Council, and Putin appeared to respond by ordering tightened security along the border to prevent illegal crossings.
Pro-Russian rebel leaders in the east dismissed Poroshenko’s speech. A rebel leader, Denis Pushilin, said, "At the moment it’s impossible for him to come (to Donetsk for talks). Perhaps with security, a group, so people won’t tear him to pieces." AP and Bloomberg
Polls have indicated for some time that even the Russians living in eastern Ukraine do not want eastern Ukraine to be part of Russia. After the revolution that ousted pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich, replacing him with an interim government Kiev, most of these same Russians don't like or trust the Kiev government either.
But according to James Sherr, Ukraine specialist from London think tank Chatham House, the election of Petro Poroshenko is changing some minds, and improving the prospects for Ukraine. At the same time, Vladimir Putin and the Russians are forced to change tactics. This is my transcription of his interview on BBC:
"[Saturday's inauguration speech] was crucial. I think with this speech Ukraine is now clearly back in the center of its drama, and Poroshenko has projected an image of someone who can take Ukraine into the future. This was a very purposeful, positive and realistic speech, and it's done something very important in Ukraine where, for months, there has been an interim government, a lot of indirection and uncertainty, and in the west the preoccupation for months has been almost exclusively on Russia, and if Ukraine has any image at all, it's been largely negative. So coming on top of these very impressive elections with this very high turnout on the 25th of May, I think this is now presenting a very different image, and it helps to establish a different dynamics. ...He's reaching out to his own country's well-being, and it's important to bear in mind when you talk about separatism in the east, we're talking about activity in two eastern regions, out of six. And if you look at the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, which are predominantly Russian speaking -- that's nine regions. And in only two, and at that only parts of two, are the separatists pretty firmly in control. So that context has to be borne in mind.
The Russians' tactics are rapidly adjusting. When the Russians started this whole enterprise in eastern Ukraine, they expected that the citizen population living there would rise up in their support. And that has not happened. We had hundreds of thousands of people on the street in Kiev [referring to the original protests in December], you have not have that in Dnetsk and Luhansk -- the fighters have been supported by at most crowds of hundreds, and at most a few thousands.
So they started changing tactics then. And I think the election itself has been a further blow to them. Their preoccupation still is to get Western acquiescence in an overall deal that will federalize Ukraine in such a way that the regions it partially controls will not only have autonomy, but have veto power over the central government itself. That's what they mean by federalization. It has no resemblance to what the term means in any other country in the world. I think that's understood inside the EU. It's certainly understood by president Poroshenko."
Iraqi officials have been caught by surprise at the size of three days of attacks across the country by the jihadist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Gunmen attacked city buildings and neighborhood in Samarra on Thursday, and gunmen and suicide bombers attacked the northern city of Mosul on Friday. On Saturday, jihadists attacked Anbar University in the Iraq city of Ramadi, killing the guards and blowing up a bridge leading to the school. Iraqi special forces launched a counterattack to retake the campus, where most of the students are Shias.
ISIS continues to grow and size and strength, having killed more than 4,400 people this year alone. It began in Syria when the Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad started slaughtering thousands of innocent Sunni women and children, and driving millions from their homes. It has become the rock star jihadist organization these days, where tens of thousands of young people from all of the world have come to join. It's growing in both Syria and Iraq, and is threatening the Shia-led government in Iraq.
ISIS continues to grow for several reasons:
Terrorism violence has grown almost every month since the total withdrawal of American forces in December, 2011. ISIS continues to grow and become a major threat to the Mideast and to the world. The National (UAE) and Ammon News (Jordan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jun-14 World View -- Russia forced to change tactics after Ukraine's election thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Jun-2014)
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Former ambassador to Syria harshly criticizes Obama's policies
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China is developing a new long-range intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple nuclear warheads as part of a large-scale military buildup, according to the "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China."
The so-called MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) missile will carry with it up to ten additional missiles with nuclear warheads, so that a single MIRV missile can strike up to ten different targets with nuclear missiles. China is developing these MIRV weapons in order to be able to overwhelm U.S. missile defenses in a war against the United States.
China has deployed a number of nuclear missile systems, including missiles that can be launched from submarines or from land, and which are specifically designed to target American cities, military bases and aircraft carriers.
China has also deployed thousands of short and medium range missiles for use in striking Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, or any other nation that challenges its annexation of other countries' sovereign regions in the South and East China Seas.
According to the report, China "is investing heavily in its ground force, emphasizing the ability to deploy campaign-level forces across long distances quickly. This modernization is playing out with wide-scale restructuring of PLA ground forces that includes a more rapid, flexible special operations force equipped with advanced technology; improved army aviation units using helicopters armed with precision- guided munitions; and C2 capabilities with improved networks providing real-time data sharing within and between units." These capabilities will be used in attacks on China's neighbors, including Taiwan, and potentially for introducing ground forces into a United States crippled by a barrage of missile attacks.
According to the report's summary:
"Although the dialogue between the United States and China is improving, outstanding questions remain about the rate of growth in China's military expenditures due to the lack of transparency regarding China's intentions. In 2013, China announced a 5.7 percent increase in its annual military budget to $119.5 billion, continuing more than two decades of sustained annual defense spending increases. China sustained its investments in strategic forces modernization, as well as key anti-access / area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities such as advanced intermediate- and medium-range conventional ballistic missiles, long-range land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles, counter-space weapons, and offensive cyber capabilities. China's military investments provide it with a growing ability to project power at increasingly longer ranges."
The Obama administration has gone out of its way to avoid portraying China as an enemy, but according to one expert on China's military:
"The 2014 Pentagon PLA report has come a long way to presenting a more useful listing of China’s military direction.But it is now time for this report to take the next step. It needs to become an illustrated book translated into multiple languages. This document defines the Chinese military’s trajectory more than any other statement by any other country — which is why the Chinese government hates it and wants to shut it down."
Indeed, China very bitterly denounced the Pentagon report. According to China's Foreign Ministry, China has always adhered to the path of peaceful development, pursued a defense policy which is defensive in nature and become a staunch force in safeguarding peace and stability in Asia-Pacific region and the world:
"China's military buildup is completely aimed at safeguarding the country's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and is part of the country's justified rights."
As we see more and more in the South China Sea, China's view of adhering to "peaceful development" is to annex other nation's territories, and by "safeguarding peace and stability" it means that anyone who does not do as China demands gets killed. U.S. Dept. of Defense and Free Beacon and Xinhua (Beijing)
A year ago, army chief Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi staged a coup and overthrew Mohamed Morsi, the only democratically elected president in Egypt's history, along with his Muslim Brotherhood government. After leaving the army, al-Sisi won his own election to president on May 28, with a landslide 96.9% of the vote. In contrast to Morsi's elections, many observers consider al-Sisi's election to be fraudulent, since thousands of Muslim Brotherhood supporters have been killed or jailed, and in fact anyone who advocated voting against al-Sisi risked being beaten or jailed.
Now al-Sisi's opponents are calling the election a fiasco because of low voter turnout. The government is claiming 47.5% voter turnout, but it was obviously from live pictures carried by BBC and CNN of deserted polling places on election day that this figure is way too high. The Muslim Brotherhood is gleefully claiming that turnout was no higher than 12%, based on data that they collected on election day.
Egyptian authorities took many desperate measures to increase the voter turnout, after the low turnout on the first day of the election. The election had been scheduled to run two days, but it was extended to a third day. A national holiday was declared, and popular artists recorded songs for YouTube encouraging people to vote.
Just as anyone who disagrees with President Obama's policies is labeled a "racist," the pro-al-Sisi media is blaming "terrorists" in the Muslim Brotherhood for preventing people from voting.
However, others in the pro-al-Sisi media are blaming al-Sisi himself:
According to one columnist:
"At this time, many young people are prosecuted, thrown in prison, and heavily fined [under the regime's protest law]. It is astonishing that after this, the current Mubarak-esque government expects these young people – the nation's work force – to labor, to produce, and to vote..."
Another columnist pointed out:
"Field Marshall 'Abd Al-Fatah Al-Sisi must realize – and I believe he does – that his job, his aspirations, and his political dimensions are completely different now than they were before the election. He must realize that the popular rage is much greater than [just] that of the MB, and that the attempts to excuse every crisis by [blaming] terrorism in order to cover up political incompetence will no longer be convincing to the millions of Egyptian citizens."
Robert Ford served for three years as President Obama's ambassador to Syria, before resigning two months ago. Now he's saying that the reason he resigned is that he could no longer defend the U.S. administrations policies with respect to Syria. According to Ford:
"We need - and we have long needed - to help moderates in the Syrian opposition with both weapons and other non-lethal assistance.Had we done that a couple of years ago, had we ramped it up, frankly the al Qaeda groups that have been winning adherents would have been unable to compete with the moderates who frankly we have much in common with.
[While Russia and especially Iran are massively increasing their assistance to Assad,] our policy was not evolving and finally I got to a point where I could no longer defend it publicly."
In an interview on BBC on Friday, Ford explained that President Obama's policies have permitted al-Qaeda linked jihadists to gain strength in Syria. Ford was particularly critical of Obama's flip-flop last year, when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad crossed Obama's "red line" and used sarin gas to kill people, and Obama did nothing about it after saying that al-Assad would "face consequences." According to Ford, moderate opposition Syrians were so angered and discouraged by Obama's flip-flop that they joined jihadists groups because that was only possible way they could continue fighting al-Assad. According to Ford:
"We need - and we have long needed - to help moderates in the Syrian opposition with both weapons and other non-lethal assistance. Had we done that a couple of years ago, had we ramped it up, frankly the al Qaeda groups that have been winning adherents would have been unable to compete with the moderates who frankly we have much in common with."
These views will be no surprise to regular World View readers, but it's unusual for an ambassador to be so critical of a President so soon after resigning. Reuters and NPR
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jun-14 World View -- Pentagon issues annual report on China's military thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Jun-2014)
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Eurozone moves to negative interest rates to fight deflation
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Of the nations (Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines) whose sovereign territory China is annexing via military force, Indonesia has tried to stay out of the disputes with China, and to concentrate on its own internal problems -- internal terrorist attacks, and separatist movements.
But now China's growing belligerence is causing Indonesia to shift strategies. According to one analyst,
"The focus in defense spending is moving to dealing with external threats. There is a concern from an Indonesian perspective that the South China Sea should not become a Chinese lake and that freedom of shipping should be maintained."
Indonesia has some 17,000 islands to police, stretched across 5,300 kilometers (3,293 miles) from east to west. The Malacca Strait that Indonesia shares with Malaysia is a key shipping lane that links the economies of countries such as India, China and Japan. Bloomberg and National Interest
With four euro zone countries -- Slovakia, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus -- now in deflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) took the desperate step of setting the "deposit rate" to a negative interest rate, -0.1%. The "deposit rate" is the interest rate that a regional bank receives when it deposits money in the ECB. If the interest rate goes negative, it means that a regional bank must pay the ECB to hold its deposit. The purpose of the move is to incentive regional banks to lend money out to other businesses, rather than depositing it in the ECB.
Few analysts believe that this interest rate reduction will make much difference. For that reason, ECB president Mario Draghi has announced that quantitative easing is being discussed. The United States "prints" $55 billion per month in quantitative easing to increase the stock market bubble. Business Insider and Bloomberg
The Dept. of Homeland Security Secret Service has issued a solicitation for a "Social Media Software Analytics Tool," commercial software that will automate the process of monitoring social media, detect statistical patterns in real time, and visually present the data clearly and concisely. Among the required capabilities, the software must have the "Ability to detect sarcasm and false positives." So if someone sends out a tweet threatening to kill someone, the software has to be able to tell whether the tweet is a joke or not. What could go wrong with that? Engadget and Federal Business Opportunities
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jun-14 World View -- Indonesia increases defense spending to combat China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Jun-2014)
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Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages
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Boko Haram on Sunday attacked residents of Attagara, a village in northeast Nigeria near the Cameroon border. Like many villages, Attagara residents were frustrated by the impotence and helplessness of the Nigerian army and security forces to protect them, so they formed vigilante groups to defend themselves. On Sunday, the Attagara vigilante groups immediately came out and retaliated, killing several of the Boko Haram militants.
On Tuesday, men dressed in army uniforms arrived in Attagara with about 200 motorcycles said they had arrived to protect the residents, and asked the residents to gather in the church. Once they were all inside, the men, who were militants in disguise, surrounded the church, killed everyone, and burnt down the entire village.
In addition to having abducted almost 300 teenage schoolgirls who have still not been recovered, and killing hundreds of civilians in bombings, Boko Haram militants have taken control of dozens of villages. Boko Haram is dividing Nigeria's public along religious lines. The Christians believe that Muslims in general are complicit with Boko Haram, while the Muslims believed that they're all being unfairly blamed for the horrific actions of a terrorist gang. It's believed that many soldiers in Nigeria's army also work for Boko Haram, in order to supplement their pay. These fears appear to have been confirmed on Wednesday, when Ten generals and five other senior military officers were found guilty in courts-martial of providing arms and information to Boko Haram extremists. AP and BBC and AP
The following are some reader comments to my last two articles:
From Trevor in the Generational Dynamics Forum:
"One major thing that concerns me is that, indeed, history is repeating itself once again. I've talked to numerous people and realize that we are just as arrogant, just as complacent, and just as unprepared for a major attack as we were in 1941. With all the talk that China can't possibly threaten us, we said something very similar- indeed, almost word for word- against Japan, only to be proven completely wrong. Doing the same thing against China would be even more disastrous yet it appears likely.Our current policy is assuming that war is a thing of the past, that we'll never have to fight another ground war again, so why bother preparing for it? Any comparisons I try to make about similar mistakes in the past are shot down "We're more civilized than that now" "Things are completely different" "We're so far ahead of everyone else that we're in no danger". Of course, there are others who like to say that any warning of China or anyone else is all lies.
Sadly, pretty much everyone in office at the moment care more about their political power, crushing their rivals, rewarding their cronies, and screwing everyone else over than actually attempting to do something about the very real threats we currently face. Plenty of historians criticize our decision not to mobilize and prepare for WWII sooner, but that's exactly what we're doing today. Don't forget: winter is coming."
Alton Wang takes China's side in the BigPeace comments section:
"You are correct in that these waters [South China Sea] were indisputable for the past 2000 years, because China owned them, and Viet Nam never said anything, perhaps because Viet Nam itself was subsidiary to China and relied on Chinese troops to fight against the French and the Americans as well. Your own prime minister Pham Van Dong actually acknowledged Chinese ownership to these waters too. Now all of a sudden you are claiming sovereignty? Now who's attempting to change the status quo here?
A response from Henry Nguyen, who takes Vietnam's side in the same BigPeace comments section:
"Vietnam said nothing because they already developed and lived on these islands for 400 years. Vietnam was fighting the French for 100 years until China started helping. Whatever those helps were, eventually cancelled by Chinese invasion in 1979. PM Pham Van Dong did not acknowledge Chinese ownership (google and read again) and even if he did, as PM of North Vietnam he had no power to give away what controlled by the South. Research for facts and stop relying on Chinese distortions: Vietnam 1st sent naval troops to these islands to map, build storm shelters, plant trees, collect shipwrecks and valuables since early 1,600's. In fact, all Chinese occupations in Paracels and Spratlys today, resulted from invasions of Vietnamese presence."
Here's another question, from Thucydides in the Generational Dynamics Forum, regarding some technical questions about how generational theory applies to Vietnam, in view of the fact that Vietnam's last generational crisis war was the 1970s war between North and South Vietnam, in which the U.S. sided with the South and lost:
"It appears to me that Vietnam is behaving rather odd for a country in a generational awakening era. The governing officials that are provoking China are from the older generation that remembers the Vietnam war. Does generational dynamics predict that they will back down rather than risk an unwinnable war? Or is it possible that a country in a generational awakening era can allow things to escalate into a war that it is predestined to loose?"
Keep in mind that the U.S. didn't back down from the Korean, Vietnam and Iraq wars. The political justifications for these wars came out of WW II -- act as policeman of the world to prevent another world war.
Vietnam is in a generational Awakening era. Vietnam beat the U.S., then beat China in a brief war, and my guess is that they're thinking that they can beat the Chinese again in some way. It would be interesting to understand exactly what thought process the Vietnamese leaders are going through these days. They may believe that even if China can beat them, they'll still inflict enough damage on the Chinese that it won't be worth it to them. That would be consistent with the likely view of the victories over the U.S. and China. They wore down the U.S., and they may have decided that they can wear down China too. Generational Dynamics forum and BigPeace comments and GD forum
Nathan G, a student in the Generational Dynamics forum, has done some research to establish a generational timeline for generations of ancient Palestine/Israel. He points out that several issues arise because of conflicts of chronologies (Was the Exodus in the 15th or 13th century BC? Did David rule in the 11th or 10th century BC?). However, this is a good starting point to identify generational crisis wars in those centuries, and serve as a basis for more research:
Ancient Israel/Palestine generational crisis list:
Jesus himself was in the same generational archetype as today's Boomers, and he was an extremely charismatic Alinsky-style 1960s-style activist, just like the Boomers. That's why he caused so many headaches for the Romans and the money changers, and why they had to get revenge. Generational Dynamics forum
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jun-14 World View -- History is repeating itself in China and Vietnam thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Jun-2014)
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Saudi Arabia reports significantly more deaths from MERS virus
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On May 24, a gunman entered the Jewish Museum in Brussels and shot three people dead, wounding a fourth. The perpetrator, Mehdi Nemmouche, 29, was finally captured on Monday, June 1, at a train station in Marseille. What has particular concerned French prosecutors is that Nemmouche had been radicalized by the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) while spending a year fighting in Syria.
According to France's prime minister Manuel Valls, France is now increasing its estimate to 800 of the number of French people who have fought or plan to fight in Syria, and he warned that they pose an unprecedented security threat. According to Valls:
"We have never before faced a challenge of this kind. It is without any doubt the most serious threat we face.We have to ensure the surveillance of hundreds and hundreds of French or European individuals who are today fighting in Syria."
Once again I'm repeating the point that I've been making now for well over a year, that Syria has become an international magnet for jihadists around the world, from places as far apart as Indonesia, Pakistan, North Africa, France, Germany and Dagestan. Recent research confirms that some 11,000 of these jihadists have flocked to Syria -- 3,000 from Western Europe and 100 from America. These jihadists will have no language or cultural problems when they return home, where they will pose a terrorist threat. AFP and BBC
China's belligerent military actions in the South China Sea, annexing regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, have drawn worldwide criticism, and caused Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines to form a military alliance to oppose China. The criticism is so sharp that a number of analysts have openly questioned why the Chinese would act so belligerently, if doing so incurred such criticism. These questions are extremely naive, but here are the answers from the point of view of Generational Dynamics:
Chinese actions towards the Vietnamese have been acts of war, or pretty close. News reports of Chinese ships using water cannons on Vietnamese ships seem to convey a benign impression. But these water cannons are being directed at doing maximum damage, to force the ships to return to port for repair. And that's only part of it. Chinese ships have been ramming smaller Vietnamese ships with the purpose of sinking them or damaging them beyond repair.
According to unconfirmed reports, Vietnam is developing an aggressive strategy to counter Chinese belligerence. The strategy develops in stages:
Once again, we have a strategy that's extremely naive. The strategy is "creating circumstances where China would have to accept the status quo or escalate." If this were 20 years ago, China would accept the status quo. But today, given a choice between accepting the status quo or escalating, China will escalate. And if Vietnam launches any ballistic missile at any China asset or city, China will clobber Vietnam, quickly spiraling into world war.
One way or another it's clear that Vietnam is not going to tolerate much longer China's annexing of Vietnamese property and attacking and crippling Vietnamese ships, without a substantially escalated response. The Diplomat and People's Daily (Beijing)
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Health on Tuesday reported 282 people have died from MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus), a major increase from the previous official death toll of 190. This is out of 688 total cases in Saudi Arabia. As happened last year, concerns are growing that a major pandemic might begin during the Hajj, when millions of Muslims from around the world arrive in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for their once in a lifetime pilgrimage. The Hajj in 2014 is scheduled for October 2-7. CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jun-14 World View -- Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Jun-2014)
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Hamas leader resigns as Palestine unity government is announced
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Spain's King Juan Carlos, is revered among older Spaniards for his deft handling of Spain's transition to democracy after the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975, and for putting down an attempted army coup in 1981. But younger Spaniards see him as the man who went on a lavish elephant-hunting trip in 2012 at the height of Spain's financial crisis.
On Monday, King Carlos abdicated the throne:
"We have felt the need for renovation, and to open up a better future. Today a younger generation deserves to step forward.I want the best for Spain, to which I have dedicated my whole life. I have decided to abdicate my crown to give way to a new generation embodied by my son Felipe, heir to the throne. I keep and will keep Spain forever deep in my heart."
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In the mid 2000s decade, Spain had one of the worst real estate bubbles of any country in the world, and unemployment today is above 25%. Catalonia is holding on November 9 a referendum to vote on seceding from Spain. The Spanish government considers the referendum to be illegal, but it's going ahead anyway. It's hoped that the ascension of Prince Felipe and his glamorous wife Princess Letizia to the throne will help dull Catalonia's desire for independence. AP and Guardian (London)
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas announced on Monday that his organization (PA/Fatah) and its arch-enemy Hamas have joined into a unity government. In a ceremony in Ramallah in the West Bank, Abbas said:
"Today, with the formation of a national consensus government, we announce the end of a Palestinian division that has greatly damaged our national case.This black page in the history (of the Palestinians) has been turned forever, and we will not allow it to come back."
The Hamas charter demands the total destruction of Israel. Abbas has promised that the new unity government will recognize Israel and renounce violence, but this promise is not widely believed.
However, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh dramatically announced his resignation, so that he would not stand in the way of the reunification agreement.
"We're leaving the government, but not the nation. We're leaving the ministries but not the question of the nation."
It's thought that Haniyeh stepped down because Hamas is close to bankruptcy. Since the Syrian war, Hamas has lost its main financial sponsor, Iran. And Gaza is doubly blockaded, both by Israel and by Egypt. So Haniyeh can continue doing whatever he wants, but just won't be part of the unity government. The real test will occur when Islamic Jihad, which is an independent terror group in Gaza that has been arming for a future war with Israel, decides to launch a new barrage of rockets into Israel. What will the unity government do then? Gulf Today (UAE) and Times of Israel
The terrorist group Boko Haram is responsible for thousands of deaths through terrorist attacks in northeastern Nigeria, and is still holding hundreds of kidnapped schoolgirls, possibly as sexual slaves. But Boko Haram is posing an additional danger to Nigeria and the entire region by making it almost impossible to administer polio vaccines. The vaccination campaign has been forced to use so-called "hit-and-runs," sending workers guarded by security officers into insecure areas to quickly administer vaccines, and quickly escape.
Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the three remaining countries where polio is endemic.
Pakistan has been a particular problem because the Taliban have been murdering health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio providing vaccines, ever since the administration bragged in 2011 that a vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama bin Laden. Polio is spreading within Pakistan, and travelers from Pakistan have been carrying the virus to other countries, particularly China and the Mideast. The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced a requirement that all Pakistanis traveling abroad will be required to present a polio vaccination certificate at the time departure, and those certificates became mandatory on Sunday, June 1. CBC and Dawn (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jun-14 World View -- Polio continues to flare in Nigeria and Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Jun-2014)
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Hamas leader resigns as Palestine unity government is announced
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
|
Spain's King Juan Carlos, is revered among older Spaniards for his deft handling of Spain's transition to democracy after the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975, and for putting down an attempted army coup in 1981. But younger Spaniards see him as the man who went on a lavish elephant-hunting trip in 2012 at the height of Spain's financial crisis.
On Monday, King Carlos abdicated the throne:
"We have felt the need for renovation, and to open up a better future. Today a younger generation deserves to step forward.I want the best for Spain, to which I have dedicated my whole life. I have decided to abdicate my crown to give way to a new generation embodied by my son Felipe, heir to the throne. I keep and will keep Spain forever deep in my heart."
|
In the mid 2000s decade, Spain had one of the worst real estate bubbles of any country in the world, and unemployment today is above 25%. Catalonia is holding on November 9 a referendum to vote on seceding from Spain. The Spanish government considers the referendum to be illegal, but it's going ahead anyway. It's hoped that the ascension of Prince Felipe and his glamorous wife Princess Letizia to the throne will help dull Catalonia's desire for independence. AP and Guardian (London)
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas announced on Monday that his organization (PA/Fatah) and its arch-enemy Hamas have joined into a unity government. In a ceremony in Ramallah in the West Bank, Abbas said:
"Today, with the formation of a national consensus government, we announce the end of a Palestinian division that has greatly damaged our national case.This black page in the history (of the Palestinians) has been turned forever, and we will not allow it to come back."
The Hamas charter demands the total destruction of Israel. Abbas has promised that the new unity government will recognize Israel and renounce violence, but this promise is not widely believed.
However, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh dramatically announced his resignation, so that he would not stand in the way of the reunification agreement.
"We're leaving the government, but not the nation. We're leaving the ministries but not the question of the nation."
It's thought that Haniyeh stepped down because Hamas is close to bankruptcy. Since the Syrian war, Hamas has lost its main financial sponsor, Iran. And Gaza is doubly blockaded, both by Israel and by Egypt. So Haniyeh can continue doing whatever he wants, but just won't be part of the unity government. The real test will occur when Islamic Jihad, which is an independent terror group in Gaza that has been arming for a future war with Israel, decides to launch a new barrage of rockets into Israel. What will the unity government do then? Gulf Today (UAE) and Times of Israel
The terrorist group Boko Haram is responsible for thousands of deaths through terrorist attacks in northeastern Nigeria, and is still holding hundreds of kidnapped schoolgirls, possibly as sexual slaves. But Boko Haram is posing an additional danger to Nigeria and the entire region by making it almost impossible to administer polio vaccines. The vaccination campaign has been forced to use so-called "hit-and-runs," sending workers guarded by security officers into insecure areas to quickly administer vaccines, and quickly escape.
Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the three remaining countries where polio is endemic.
Pakistan has been a particular problem because the Taliban have been murdering health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio providing vaccines, ever since the administration bragged in 2011 that a vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama bin Laden. Polio is spreading within Pakistan, and travelers from Pakistan have been carrying the virus to other countries, particularly China and the Mideast. The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced a requirement that all Pakistanis traveling abroad will be required to present a polio vaccination certificate at the time departure, and those certificates became mandatory on Sunday, June 1. CBC and Dawn (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jun-14 World View -- Polio continues to flare in Nigeria and Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Jun-2014)
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Abbas: Palestinian unity government will 'renounce violence' against Israel
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
If you sent me an e-mail message on Thursday or Friday (May 29/30), then I may not have received it due to a massive attack on the e-mail servers for my web site. In that case, please resend.
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The release of five high-level Taliban prisoners from Gitmo, in exchange for U.S. soldier Bowe Bergdahl who has been held captive for 5 years, is being declared a "big victory" by the supreme leader of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Mohammad Omar:
"I extend my heartfelt congratulations to the entire Afghan Muslim nation, all the Mujahideen and to the families and relatives of the prisoners for this big victory regarding the release of five Taliban leaders from Guantanamo prison. ...We shall thank almighty for this great victory. The sacrifice of our Mujahedin have resulted in the release of our senior leaders from the hand of the enemy. ...
I thank the government of Qatar, especially its emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad (Al Thani), who made sincere efforts for release of these leaders and for their mediation and for hosting them. May Allah grant all of them with rewards"
The five Taliban prisoners had been officials in the Taliban regime driven out by the US-led invasion of Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001, attacks. AFP and NBC
Some Afghans are criticizing the release of five Taliban prisoners, saying that they'll resume fighting within Afghanistan after the U.S. troops leave.
According to the U.S. military, the five are "high risk," and were implicated in the murder of thousands of Shia Muslims in Afghanistan. The Taliban are militants within the Pashtun ethnic group, which is Sunni Muslim. There is continuing sectarian tension throughout the region, and the return of Taliban militants with a history of slaughter of Shia Muslims is going to raise alarms.
According to one high school teacher living in Kabul:
"This decision showed that the region, Afghanistan and its people aren’t worth anything to American government.Otherwise, why would they swap a useless army soldier who broke the law with the five most dangerous Taliban fighters?"
The phrase "broke the law" refers to the accusation that Bergdahl had been captured in the first place because he abandoned his post, and walked away from his military base with only a compass and a bottle of water. Reuters
Palestinians expect to form a new "unity government" with a press conference scheduled for Monday afternoon. The unity government will join Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, with the Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) for the first time since the factions went to war in 2008.
The United States has not taken a public position on the reunification of the two Palestinian groups, but on Sunday, US Secretary of State John Kerry spoke by phone to PA president Mahmoud Abbas. In the phone call, Abbas promised Kerry that the new unity government would recognize Israel and renounce violence. Few people believe that this promise will be kept.
Hamas is threatening to block Monday's announcement unless a number of power-sharing issues are resolved. Previous attempts to form a unity government have failed because of such issues. However, the reunification has become a major international issue, and Hamas officials are indicating that they'll go ahead with the announcement despite their misgivings and expect to make changes later. Jerusalem Post and Gulf News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jun-14 World View -- Prisoner swap deal infuriates many Afghans, 'big victory' for Taliban thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Jun-2014)
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Migrants from Syria and Africa flood into Italy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Over 3,500 migrants, including hundreds of women and children, as well as many unattached children, arrived in Italy in a single day, as the annual "migration season" begins to enter its peak period, thanks to the warm weather. Some 43,000 migrants have arrived so far this year, the same amount all of 2013. The migrants arrive from Syria and North Africa, and most are believed to have started crossing the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. According to Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi:
"Europe has to call on the United Nations to intervene in Libya and more generally it must show a capacity to manage the immigration phenomenon."
Greece, Italy and Malta have repeatedly asked their fellow EU countries for help in handling the large numbers of migrants. Immigration was a major political issue in the recent elections for European Parliament, where a number of anti-immigrant parties did unexpectedly well. Deutsche Welle and Reuters
As we reported yesterday, Japan's president Shinzo Abe spoke on Friday at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Asian security issues. He announced enhanced military relationships with Vietnam and the Philippines, and demanded that China abide by international rules and laws, rather than coercion and threats.
On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel gave a speech at the same conference, and expressed approval of Abe's plan. Hagel also made some harsh criticisms of China:
"But in recent months, China has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea. It has restricted access to Scarborough Reef, put pressure on the long-standing Philippine presence at the Second Thomas Shoal, begun land reclamation activities at multiple locations, and moved an oil rig into disputed waters near the Paracel Islands.The United States has been clear and consistent. We take no position on competing territorial claims. But we firmly oppose any nation’s use of intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force to assert those claims.
We also oppose any effort – by any nation – to restrict overflight or freedom of navigation – whether from military or civilian vessels, from countries big or small. The United States will not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged."
Now here's the problem: When Hagel says that the U.S. "will not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged," many people will not believe him. They will remember the following:
Now Hagel is setting another "red line." Does anyone really believe that the U.S. will do anything but "look the other way"? The following statement is attributed to Abraham Lincoln: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt." It seems that any time Hagel or President Obama or Secretary of State John Kerry opens his mouth, he makes a fool of himself. It would be better if they all followed Abraham Lincoln's advice and kept their mouths shut.
China's Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong responded to Hagel's speech:
"Secretary Hagel's speech is full of threats and intimidating language. Secretary Hagel's speech is full of encouragement, incitement for the Asia region's instability giving rise to a disturbance. Secretary Hagel, in this kind of public space with many people, openly criticized China without reason. This accusation is completely without basis. ...It was ... filled with instigation, threat and intimidation, which wanted to incite the destabilizing factors of Asia-Pacific region to stir up disputes."
Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu said that the "charges are "groundless," and that:
"[T]he Americans are making very, very important strategic mistakes right now. ...If you take China as an enemy, China will absolutely become the enemy of the US. If the Americans take China as an enemy, we Chinese have to take steps to make ourselves a qualified enemy of the US. But if the Americans take China as a friend, China will be a very loyal friend; and if they take China as a partner, China will be a very cooperative partner."
Dept. of Defense and Economic Times and Russia Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Jun-2014)
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