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Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Israel received almost worldwide condemnation on Wednesday for air strikes on a crowded Gaza marketplace and on a United Nations shelter, killing or wounding over 100 innocent civilians, including women and children.
On the other hand, Hamas released a taunting video of how they used one of their tunnels under the border fence between Gaza and Israel on Monday to surprise and kill five Israeli soldiers.
And yet, there is one thing that Hamas and the Israelis agree on: They don't want to go back to the status quo ante.
Israelis are now aware of a massive tunnel complex under Gaza, much more sophisticated than they'd previously estimated. Every (Jewish) Israeli citizen is aware of the danger that this poses, and the left and right are united in support of the army in continuing its ground operations and air strikes on Gaza with the objective of destroying the rockets and destroying the entire tunnel complex. Polls indicate that Israelis will not agree to a ceasefire unless all army meets its objectives.
Palestinians are aware that if they agree to a ceasefire now, before the "siege" is lifted, then the war will have gained them nothing. That means that the annihilation of hundreds of civilians, the destruction of hundreds of homes, businesses and hospitals, the devastation of Gaza's infrastructure -- all of that will have been for nothing. Polls indicate that Palestinians will not agree to a ceasefire unless the "siege" (blockade) is lifted, meaning that people and goods can flow freely in and out of Gaza.
Thus, in a sense, this war has become "existential" for both sides. Neither side can back down, which logically implies that the war will continue for some time to come, to the point of exhaustion. Perhaps someone can figure out a compromise -- say 90% of the tunnels are destroyed, and some symbolic steps are taken to weaken the blockade. Or perhaps Israel will re-occupy Gaza, reversing the decision it made in 2005. Daily Mail (London) and AP and Al Arabiya and Jerusalem Post
American influence played a big role in Central Asia in the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and grew even larger after 2001 when the Afghanistan war began. But now, American influence is falling rapidly, as the U.S. withdraws troops from Afghanistan and, at the same time, sharply reduces aid to Central Asian countries for such things as anti-drug programs. There's probably no greater symbol of this loss of influence than Manas International Airport in Bishkek, the capital city of Kyrgyzstan. A couple of years ago, you would typically see dozens of US C-17 transports, carrying troops and equipment to and from Afghanistan. Today, the US is gone, and the airport is almost deserted. Kyrgyzstan used to be a country of major strategic importance, as it leveraged Russia and America against each other, but now the country in clearly in Russia's orbit.
The change is highlighted by "Enduring Brotherhood 2014," joint peacekeeping military exercises now taking place in Kyrgyzstan by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military cooperative of six countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. 700 troops are taking part in the exercises, kicked off after a four-day drill by CSTO's Collective Rapid Deployment Force. Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA - New Delhi) and Jamestown and Central Asia Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Jul-2014)
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China's secret weapon in the South China Sea: 50,000 fishing boats
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As China moves into the South China Sea, annexing islands and territories that have historically belonged to other nations, and threatening anyone who tries to stop them with war, China is using, as strategic asset, 50,000 fishing boats -- from privately owned craft to commercial trawlers. Each of these boats is equipped with a satellite navigation system that gives the captain a direct link to the Chinese coast guard. In case of bad weather, or a Philippine or Vietnamese boat in waters annexed by China, he can signal the coast guard for military help. China is encouraging boat owners to fish in disputed areas historically belonging to other nations, in order to establish a claim. The reason given for Chinese assertiveness is that China's per-capita fish consumption is 35.1 kg, nearly double the global average of 18.9 kg. The UN projects that by 2030 China’s fish consumption will increase more than 60% from 2008 levels, to 57.4 million tonnes (63.3 million tons) -- more than a third of the global total.
China is aggressively asserting claims to the entire South China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China is building a network of airstrips and military garrisons in the South China Sea in clear violation of international law, and refuses to participate in any United Nations mediation efforts. Reuters and Quartz
Dozens of knife-wielding "thugs," presumed to be Muslim Uighur separatists, conducted a "premeditated and carefully planned" attack on a government building and police station in Ailixihu, a town in China's restive northwest Xinjing province. The terrorists killed dozens of Han and Uighur civilians and destroyed 31 vehicles, presumably because of their association with the local branch of the hated Beijing government. The police killed "dozens" of the attackers.
The attack occurred on Monday, but was kept secret by Chinese authorities, who issued the following censorship instructions to the media:
"Without exception, all media must refrain from reporting on the violent terror incident in Shache County, Xinjiang."
Any news of the incident was scrubbed from the internet as soon as it was posted. However, news began to leak out to international media on Tuesday morning, and by Tuesday evening, Xinhua published a story.
There have been increasing numbers of terrorist acts by Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province. Chinese authorities have been doing everything possible to suppress any practice of the Muslim religion, even going so far, a month ago, of issuing orders that Uighurs are not permitted to take part in traditional fasting during the holy month of Ramadan, which ran this year from Saturday, June 28th through the evening of Monday, July 28. Uighurs were prevented from fasting in schools and public offices, and inspections were to be made on Uighur residences. The attack came on the last day of Ramadan. McClatchy and China Digital Times
Wu Sike, China's special envoy for the Middle East, says that China is extremely worried because Uighur jihadists from Xinjiang province have gone to the Middle East for training, and may have joined the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) in order to join the fight in Syria or Iraq.
According to Wu:
"Several hot spot issues in the Middle East have provided living space for terrorist groups, in particular the crisis in Syria has turned this country into a training ground for extremists from many countries.These extremists come from Islamic countries, Europe, North America and China. After being immersed in extremist ideas, when they return home they will pose a severe challenge and security risk to those countries. They won't necessarily all return (to China). Some will remain to participate in the conflict, perhaps crossing into Iraq. ...
China is a victim of extremist, terrorist activities, and our support for fighting terrorism in this region is beneficial to us too. As a result China and those countries are in a closely knit community of shared interests."
People Daily and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jul-14 World View -- Uighurs launch massive knife-wielding terrorist attack in China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Jul-2014)
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Kerry shuts Egypt and Palestinian Authority out of Gaza 'peace plan'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A huge fuel depot near the airport in Libya's capital Tripoli is burning out of control and spreading. The tanks contains some 20 million gallons of petrol and fuel. If the fire is not brought under control, it could ignite liquid gas nearby, triggering a much larger explosion, and causing a humanitarian and environmental disaster. Densely populated Tripoli is being evacuated within a 3-km radius of the airport. Authorities are asking for international assistance in fighting the fire.
The fuel depot fire is the result of the growing tribal warfare in Libya that we described yesterday. It's believed that the Islamist militias, centered in Misurata, launched missiles into fuel depot in order to trigger the fire and explosion. Anti-Islamist militias, centered in Zintan, that had been fighting the Islamists had been defending the airport.
With anarchy spreading, many foreigners in Libya are fleeing the country. On Monday, the Netherlands, Philippines, Austria, China and India became the next countries to evacuate their citizens and embassy staff. The United States, Britain, United Nations, and Turkey have already closed their embassies. AFP and Al-Jazeera
Liberia is closing all its borders, and is instituting a new travel policy to inspect and test all outgoing and incoming passengers, in the hope of slowing the spread of Ebola. Ebola has already killed 660 people across the region, since the outbreak began in February.
This is the worst Ebola outbreak in history, not only because of the numbers killed, but also because of its geographic spread. Some officials in Doctors without Borders are expressing the fear that the number of Ebola patients identified so far are "just the tip of the iceberg." There are many villages in western Africa that are not easily accessible, and there have been stories, perhaps only rumors, of entire villages disappearing because of Ebola. It's possible, though not certain, that Ebola is far more widespread than is currently known. Ebola is not airborne, but it's spread through physical contact Reuters
Palestinian Authority (PA/PLO) officials are furious at an apparent attempt by US Secretary of State John Kerry, whether by clumsiness or by intention, to shut Egypt and the PLO out of a Gaza "peace conference" held in Paris on Saturday, and a related proposed "peace agreement." The Paris conference was attended by Kerry and representatives of Turkey and Qatar, as well as France, Germany, Britain and Italy. But Israel, Egypt and the PLO were not invited.
Turkey and Qatar are allies of Hamas. Israeli officials say that Kerry's proposed "peace agreement," which has not been officially released to the public, meets all the demands and talking points of Hamas (ending the "siege"), but does not address any of the security concerns of Israel (disarming Hamas). The implication was not that Kerry is malevolent, but that he doesn't understand the issues.
Even worse, Kerry's plan undermined a peace plan that had previously been offered by Egypt, and was agreed by Israel and the PLO.
According to a statement by a furious Palestinian Authority official:
"Kerry proposed his initiative after we were very close to a comprehensive agreement guaranteeing the lifting of the siege on Gaza and obtaining all the Palestinian demands. If the issue was lifting the siege, abolishing the buffer zones, opening the crossings, and expanding the fishing zones, we could have obtained this on Wednesday [July 23]. An announcement of [this achievement] was ready for publication – but (Hamas political bureau head Khaled) Mashaal called a press conference and destroyed the [PLO] initiative."
Noting that Hamas is an offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt has declared a terrorist organization, another PLO official said:
"The Palestinian leadership and people promote every Arab, regional, or international effort to stop Israel's war, stop the bloodletting, and defend the Palestinian people in the [Gaza Strip] – while the conference and the forces participating in it prove that it was not innocent and does not strive to stop Israel's shedding of Palestinian blood. Its objective was to circumvent the Egyptian initiative and Egypt's role, and to plan to return to shaping the region according to the American vision and according to the U.S.-Israeli plan that will restore the Muslim Brotherhood to their status."
It seems that every three or four weeks it's necessary to talk about yet one more foreign policy debacle by John Kerry, who gives every sign of not having the vaguest clue what's going on in the world. Kerry burst onto the scene in 1971 when he declared to the Senate that U.S. Army soldiers were rapists and torturers and no better than Nazi stormtroopers, and he's been belittling the army and the United States ever since. As Secretary of State, he says and does one stupid thing after another, and lurches from one foreign policy debacle to the next. His boss, President Obama, does no better, allowing the US to suffer one humiliation after another.
It's worth repeating that this isn't just a matter of "there's nothing that Obama can do." This is all happening because of a major policy reversal by the Obama administration. America has been "policeman of the world," since President Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of 1947. Every President since then has fulfilled that commitment till now, because the cost of a small military action was always better than a repeat of something as enormous as World War II. President Obama has repudiated that commitment. The analogy is the New York City police. They don't have to declare all out war to fight crime. But if they simply stopped policing and told all the criminals that they would negotiate an end to crime, then crime would soar. By repudiating the Truman Doctrine, the Policeman of the World has said it would stop policing, with the result of one foreign policy debacle after another. Washington Post and Memri and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and France 24
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jul-14 World View -- Huge fuel depot fire threatens Tripoli Libya with explosion thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Jul-2014)
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United Arab Emirates to launch a space program to reach Mars
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The United States, Britain, Turkey, and other countries are closing their embassies in Tripoli, Libya, and asking their employees to flee as quickly as possible to the safety of neighboring Tunisia. Libya's government, such as it is, appears to have completely lost control of the country, and tribal battles are becoming more violent, especially in Tripoli and Benghazi. Over 150 people have died in clashes in and around the two cities during the last two weeks. This is the deadliest violence in Libya since the 2011 Libyan war.
Three years after the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi, the country is becoming polarized between two main militia factions.
In the chaos that followed the end of the war, the Islamist militias centered in the city of Misurata led an effort to eliminate all politicians who had supported Gaddafi. This resulted in the political elimination of many moderate politicians, leaving the Islamists in charge.
Until two months ago, Islamist militias linked to the Muslim Brotherhood were in control of Tripoli, Benghazi, and other cities. These included the Misurata militias, and other militias that joined as allies. One of these is Ansar al-Sharia, operating in Benghazi, which is believed responsible for the September 11, 2012, attack in Benghazi that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. The political wing of the Islamist militias is the Justice and Construction Party, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, and controls the parliament, known as the General National Congress (GNC).
In May, an anti-Islamist military action was launched by other militias that opposed the Islamist militias. These militias, sometimes called "nationalist militias," are headed by 71 year old Khalifa Hifter (or Hafter). Hifter was an ally of Muammar Gaddafi in the 1969 Libyan revolution, but he turned against Gaddafi in the 1980s, and fled to the U.S. where he apparently became a citizen living in Virginia. He returned to Libya after the 2011 war, and is now leading the military operation to overthrow the Islamists.
Hifter leads the Libyan National Army, and is backed by many former military officers as well as militias tied to the cities of Benghazi, Tobruk and Ajdabiya in the east and Zintan in the west. Reuters and LA Times
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Developing a generational timeline for Libya has been a very difficult task because of the paucity of information about the tribal wars that occurred during Libya's colonial period. However, during the 2011 Libyan war, correspondence with several web site readers led to the conclusion that Libya's last generational crisis war began in 1911 when the Italians defeated the Ottoman empire in Tripolitania. In the 1920s, there were a series of extremely bloody, brutal massacres of Libyan tribes, first in Cyrenaica, and then in Fezzan, wiping out a large percentage of the Libyan population. This analysis has to be tempered by the observation that Libya is a large country with many tribes, and some portions of the country may be on separate generational timelines. However, for the populated northern regions, the last generational crisis war appears to have been the Italian conquests, climaxing in 1934.
This analysis implies that Libya is deep into a generational crisis era. As we pointed out at the conclusion of the 2011 war, it's highly likely that the war will be resumed, and some of the tribal wars of the 1930s will probably be re-fought. Fighting between the two major groups of militias has been steadily increasing since May, and it's possible that we're seeing the start of that now.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is developing a space program with the intention of eventually landing human beings on Mars. It's felt that the space program could also inspire thousands of Emiratis to pursue careers in the space industry, opening the door to new research bodies and university courses in aerospace engineering, resulting in "millions of young scientists and engineers." The National (UAE)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jul-14 World View -- Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Jul-2014)
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Israel extends the Gaza ceasefire by 24 hours, but Hamas does not
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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It's not unusual for Iran to call for the annihilation of Israel, and this week was no different, especially in the context of the war in Gaza. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, gave a speech on Friday, Qods Day (Jerusalem Day), an annual event by Iran to oppose Israel's control of Jerusalem. His speech called for an end to Israel:
"These crimes [of Israel in Gaza] defy imagination. They are the essence of [Israel's] wolf-like and child-killer regime, for which the only solution is its annihilation and liquidation. Of course, until that time [when this happens], the determined and armed Palestinian resistance, and its spread to the West Bank, are the only way to deal with that bestial regime. ...As the Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah] Khomeini [Khamenei's predecessor] said, Israel must be liquidated. [But] the annihilation of Israel as the only way to a real solution does not mean the annihilation of the Jews in the region. In order [to carry out] this logical operation [of annihilating Israel] there is a practical apparatus that the Islamic Republic [of Iran] is presenting to the international community. Based on this apparatus, which is acceptable to the nations [of the world], people living in the region, and belonging to it, will be polled to find out what regime they prefer. In this way, the occupying and forged regime [of Israel] will be annihilated. Of course, until that heartless and child-killer regime is destroyed, the forceful struggle, and determined and armed resistance, are the [only] path to solving [the problem of] this destructive regime...
Therefore, it is my belief that the West Bank should be armed just like Gaza. Anyone who cares about the fate of Palestine, and who is capable of doing something, should provide arms to the people [of the West Bank] too..."
I can't recall ever seeing this sharp distinction between the "wolf-like" Israeli regime, which is to be annihilated, and the Jewish people, who will NOT be annihilated, and will even be permitted to live in the region. He's actually recommending that all the people in the region participate in a referendum to decide who will govern them. This sharp distinction may represent a change in Iran's Islamic hardline policies.
Before commenting more on this, I'd first like to quote another Iranian Qods Day speaker, a military commander named Ali Fazli who says that the Palestinians in Gaza are partners in the resistance against Israel:
"The people of Gaza are undoubtedly Shi'ite... because the people of Gaza could not have stood against the Zionist regime and sacrificed itself for two weeks with resistance alone. The blood spilled in Gaza and Palestine for the defense of all of Islam connects the Shia and the Sunna, and therefore the resistance front should unite and preserve its unity against the arrogance."
There are frequently many bizarre statements coming out of Iran, but this has to be one of the most bizarre of all time. In no way are the people of Gaza "undoubtedly Shi'ite." To the contrary, Gaza is overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim, with a tiny minority of Shia Muslims. Furthermore, there have been outbreaks of sectarian violence between Shia and Sunni groups in Gaza, and Shias have complained about the violence against them. Memri and Al Monitor
When you're commenting on Iran, as I have been for many years, you have to understand that Iran is in the midst of a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, and that there's a cavernous "generation gap" separating the attitudes of the old geezers, the survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war, and the attitudes of the people in the younger generations that grew up after the war.
Iran's population was enormously unified by the Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war, and that's the social climate that the geezers, like Khamenei, would like to bring about again. A signal event in 1979 was the takeover of the American embassy in Iran, and Iran's senior leaders look for ways to repeat that event in one way or another, to bring about renewed unity today, something that's impossible in a generational Awakening era.
So what you have in Iran is a senior leadership holding fantastical beliefs that are totally out of touch with reality.
The principal fantastical belief, which I've written about a number of times over the years, is Khamenei's fantasy of gaining hegemony over the entire Arabian peninsula, and governing the Muslim world in the same way that the Ottoman Empire governed prior to its destruction. We've pointed out that this fantasy can never be realized because the Sunni Arab population will never agree to be governed by the Shia Persian Iranians.
The bizarre excerpts from the two Qods Day speeches that I quoted above are manifestations of these fantasies. In the view of Iran's geezers, Sunnis, Shias and Jews will be all alike, and will all be governed by a new Persian empire, just like the old Ottoman Empire. The only thing standing in the way of a new Persian Empire is the "wolf-like" Zionist regime, which must be annihilated, and rest settled by a referendum.
What's new in Khamenei's speech this time is the sharp distinction between Israel and Jews, where one is to be annihilated and the other not. However, with or without this distinction, the whole thing is a bizarre fantasy on the part of the senior Iranian leadership.
When I write about the attitudes and beliefs of senior Iranian leadership coming out of the Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war, it's worthwhile to add a brief note on the nuclear issue.
There is no doubt in my mind that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. Iran was attacked with weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in 1988 by Iraq, and Iran would already have developed nuclear weapons if Saddam Hussein hadn't been expelled by the Iraq war in 2003. Iran sees itself surround by potential enemies, Pakistan and Israel, both having nuclear weapons. For Iran, developing nuclear weapons is an existential issue.
However, as I've described before, Iran takes an enormous amount of pride in not having invaded other countries, even though other countries have invaded Iran. If you look back at Iran's major wars of the last century -- the Constitutional Revolution of the 1900s decade, the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, Iran never attacked anyone else. This is now part of Iran's DNA, and even the top leadership would be repulsed by the idea of a preemptive attack on Israel.
So my conclusion is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons as a defensive measure, but has no plans at all to use them on Israel, which is what is widely believed. In fact, even the Qods Day speeches quoted above emphasize this fact. Khamenei is calling for the destruction of the Israeli regime, not the destruction of Jews, and certainly not the destruction of all the Muslims who also live in and around Israel.
Hamas has given Israel a new major credibility boost by refusing to extend Saturday's 12 hour truce by 24 hours, to Sunday midnight GMT, while Israel has done so unilaterally. In fact, reports indicate that Gaza was shooting rockets at Tel Aviv within 3 minutes after the 12-hour ceasefire.
Although Israel is observing a unilateral ceasefire, it is continuing military operations against the tunnels on the border between Gaza and Israel, since these tunnels are used by Hamas to enter Israel for terrorist operations. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jul-14 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader wants to annihilate Israel, but not Jews thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Jul-2014)
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Ebola victim escapes from hospital, putting Freetown at risk
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
US Secretary of State John Kerry has been running around from country to country in the Mideast trying to sell a 7-day "give peace a chance" plan. The plan has already been rejected by both Hamas and Israel. The details of the plan were not published, but the issues are being widely discussed:
Israel did not want Kerry to leave the Mideast empty-handed, so it agreed to a 12-hour ceasefire on Saturday.
Both Hamas and Israel have taken very hard positions. The logic of the situation is that neither side can agree to a cease-fire without the humiliation of backing down, so it appears most likely that this war will continue until Israel can claim to have achieved its objectives -- destroy the tunnels and destroy the rockets. Israel probably has one or two more weeks to do that. Jerusalem Post and Debka
The deadly Ebola virus continues to spread rapidly in western Africa. Since February, there have been 1,093 Ebola cases to date in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, including 660 who have died. Sierra Leone officials are extremely concerned that a woman with Ebola in Freetown, the capital city of Sierra Leone, densely populated with about 1 million inhabitants, escaped from the isolation ward of a hospital, when her family stormed the hospital and forcibly removed her. Ebola is not airborne, but it's spread through physical contact, and it's feared that this woman might start a chain reaction that spreads the disease rapidly through Freetown.
Another possible emergency situation is occurring in Lagos, the most populous city in Nigeria with 5 million people. On Tuesday, a 40-year-old man from Liberia arrived by plane in Lagos, and passed out in the airport. He was taken to a hospital and diagnosed with Ebola. He died on Thursday. It's feared that he might have infected other people on the plane, and those people might be roaming Lagos affecting other people. An infected person may not show any symptoms for up to two weeks, but can still infect other people before showing symptoms. Reuters and Nigeria Guardian News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jul-14 World View -- Israel rejects 7-day ceasefire, agrees to 12-hour ceasefire thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Jul-2014)
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UN official says that Mideast will be 'shocked' into peace
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Jeffrey Feldman, the United Nations Undersecretary for Political Affairs, was interviewed on the BBC on Thursday, and asked why this iteration of the war between the Israelis and Hamas should be any different that the last ones, in 2008 and 2012.
He was asked:
"When the world thinks about just the two most recent bouts of violence -- major violence between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza in 2008 and 2012, essentially the dispute was exactly the same as this - which was - Israel was saying, "We simply can't put up with rockets being fired onto our territory," and Hamas was saying, "We want the blockade of Gaza lifted."The two sides are saying exactly the same thing again now. When we finally do get to a ceasefire, which undoubtedly we will at some point - what's to make you or anybody else think that we simply won't be back here again in a couple of years time?"
His response:
"That's definitely a risk.And I go back to the Security Council resolution that we passed back in January 2009, in one of th earlier episodes of violence that you've referred to. Because that security council resolution put obligations on the parties to do certain things -- to address the very issues you raise.
It's intolerable for both the Palestinians and the Israelis that the situation that existed before this current round of violence started continues. The situation doesn't simply repeat itself, but it seems to get worse with every time the repetition comes in. That shock is what I hope we can use in order to get the Israelis and Palestinians awake to address the underlying issues of security, of access, of trade and transport and movement."
So Feldman acknowledges that the situation is getting worse each time, but comes to the truly incredible solution that this is going to "shock" the Israelis and Hamas into an agreement, presumably that Israel will end the blockade, and Hamas will stop shooting rockets. How can someone who claims to be an "expert" know so little about history as to reach this inane conclusion?
I'm always reminded about the 2005-8 time frame, and the number of people that I told, I exhorted, not to buy real estate, because there was a big real estate bubble, and they would lose everything. Many went ahead, and lost everything, and then were furious at me because of human perversity. I understood that they weren't mad at me -- they were mad at themselves for having been so stupid.
For the past few years, when I talk about China's increasingly bellicose and obvious preparations for preemptive war with the United States, I've found that many people don't even want to think about it in any way. It's not that they have even a minimally informed opinion, but they consider it as impossible as, say, the bursting of a real estate bubble. (v. Churchill)
I'm finding exactly the same sort of attitude today with respect to the war between the Israelis and Hamas. It's possible, even likely, that Israel will "win" this war. But will the Palestinians be so "shocked" by this that they'll give up their demands for the "right of return" and the elimination of Israel?
As Feldman says, the trend has been in the opposite direction. Things are getting worse during each repetition. That's the trend. When a trend exists, if you're going to argue that the trend won't continue, then you need at least to provide a rational explanation why you believe that. But Feldman is predicting that the trend will fall off a cliff, and he's providing no explanation whatsoever except wishful thinking. And remember, this is from a so-called "expert."
What's changed in the Mideast between 2008 and now? What's changed is that each year more combative people from younger generations replace more compromising people in key positions from older generations, especially generations that survived the incredible horrors of the 1948 war. That's what Generational Dynamics is all about, it never ceases to amaze that that no matter how utterly obvious these generational predictions and analyses are, and no matter how many times the generational predictions turn out to be right, over and over and over, while the ideologues on all sides turn out to be wrong, there are many people who simply cannot wrap their heads around the possibility that these predictions will actually occur -- until they do occur, and there's no choice. It's just human nature for people to stick their heads in the sand, as ostriches allegedly do. But humans are much more ostrich-like than ostriches. Spiegel
Hamas has been facing a great deal of international criticism for using Palestinian children as "human shields," putting rockets and missiles in schools and hospitals. A couple of days ago, we quoted Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi absurdly characterizing such charges as "racism."
On Thursday, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal was asked on the BBC to further provide an explanation:
INTERVIEWER: How can any idea of resistance justify putting rockets in a school building?MESHAAL: Frankly speaking, this is a lie. Let Israelis show where the rocket launchers are in Gaza.
INTERVIEWER: This is not something that has come form Israel. This is the UN Relief and Works Agency.
MESHALL: This is not true. Rocket launchers in Gaza belong to the resistance. They are underground, and Israel is unable to reach them. This is why it pretends they are in civilian areas.
So we have a perfectly reasonable question, and we have two bizarre answers from two Palestinian representatives. It's a sign of desperation that Hamas has not been able to come up with satisfactory narrative to the "human shield" question.
The repeated lying is a sign of desperation, and in fact, Hamas may be so desperate that it's not certain that it will survive this war, no matter who "wins." This is another thing that's changed in the Mideast since the previous wars. Hamas used to have strong support from Syria and Egypt. But the Syrian genocide has caused a rift, while the Egyptian military coup against the Muslim Brotherhood government led by Mohammed Morsi has turned Hamas from a friend of Egypt to an enemy. Add to that, the Gaza economy is on the ropes, and there are numerous reports that the Hamas government cannot even pay its own employees. Finally, it's worth repeating that the median age in Gaza is 18, which means that, to a large extent, it's the newer militias that are de facto in charge, with the aging Hamas bureaucracy becoming less relevant. So, it's not unreasonable to consider that Hamas will not survive the Gaza war, no matter what its outcome.
As we've described recently ( "22-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances"), Hamas still has some powerful supporters -- namely, Qatar, Turkey and Iran.
But Israel also has extremely powerful Arab allies -- Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Reports are emerging that these countries are fully committed to helping Israel defeat Hamas. Egypt's peace initiative last week was specifically designed so that Israel could accept it, while Hamas would have to reject it. The Saudis are using economic pressure in Europe to be evenhanded about condemning "criminal" acts by Hamas and Israel, and to go along with Israel's demand that Hamas be "demilitarized," in order for peace to be permanent. These actions provide political cover for Israel in the international arena, despite the huge numbers of Palestinian casualties, and permit Israel to continue its military campaign unhindered by complaints from the Obama administration and John Kerry.
What Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are planning for is the destruction of the Hamas government and its military capabilities, replacing it with a new government headed by a (hopefully) more moderate Palestinian Authority. For this plan to succeed, Israel's military attack on Gaza would have to become even more forceful and potent than it already is, in order to clean up the Hamas military structure as rapidly as possible.
Well, this would be a breathtaking development, assuming that these reports are true. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I would have to provide exactly the same kinds of warnings and cautions that I provided by Jeffrey Feldman at the start of this World View column.
Let's assume that all these objectives are met successfully, that Hamas has been removed, and a "moderate" Palestinian government has been installed. The "trend" that things are getting worse, described by Feldman, would not be changed by this development. Whatever the government, Gaza would still have a dense population with an average age of 18 years old, making it a territory being run by children with guns, rockets and missiles. There is no reason to be believe that a "moderate" government would be any more successful in governing Gaza as Hamas. And there's no reason to believe that this kind of military victory and imposed government wouldn't lead to a new war in a couple of years time, even worse than this one. Middle East Eye and BBC and Israel Hayom and CNN and Debka (paywall)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jul-14 World View -- Can Hamas survive the Gaza war? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Jul-2014)
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Gunmen kill 21 Egyptian border guards on border with Libya
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With US Secretary of State John Kerry and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon running around from country to country in the Mideast, hoping to get credit for being the one to mediate a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel. However, a major speech by Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal on Wednesday indicates that there is no hope of cease-fire. Meshaal spoke for almost an hour, and repeatedly made it clear that Hamas would not agree to a cease-fire.
More specifically, Meshaal made a series of demands that must precede a cease-fire. The major demand, repeated over and over, is an end to the "siege" of Gaza -- allow the free flow of goods and people in and out of Gaza. Here are some excerpts from his speech:
"It's been more than seven years, since 2006 [when Israel imposed the siege]. It was a collective punishment for all Palestinians because they elected their leaders through the ballot box [referring to the election of Hamas to govern Gaza]. ...Killing by siege and starvation is no less than killing by bullets. Swift killing is as punishable as slow killing. Besieging free men turns them into time bombs. It will explode one day in the face of the occupier and those who have led the siege. Gaza has turned into a fireball in the face of those who have turned the siege to them. ...
Give me the price. What is the price to pay? How many Israeli soldiers do you wish to see dead in order to see the siege lifted from Gaza?"
Meshaal said that Hamas agreed to a cease-fire after the 2009 and 2012 wars, but the siege continued afterwards, and so Gaza accomplished nothing. This time, Hamas will not agree to a cease-fire unless the siege is ended first.
Ending the siege was Meshaal's principal demand. Other demands included end the occupation of the West Bank, return Jerusalem to the Palestinians, free the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, open the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza, lift the naval blockade, lift the border controls with Israel, allow 1948 Palestinian refugees to return to their homes ("right of return").
Meshaal believes that because of the large numbers of Palestinian casualties, international pressure on Israeli will force it to give up and withdraw from Gaza. In fact, I've seen several pundits express the view that the pressure is getting so great that Israel will have to back down by the end of this week.
Meshaal also made a reference to the fact that American and European airlines are refusing to land Israel's Ben Gurion airport, because of Gaza's rockets. He said that Israel is almost "panicking" because of an increased feeling of isolation. "They're starting to taste what we have been tasting for years."
The logic of the situation is that no cease-fire is possible at this time. Meshaal has made it clear that even if Israel backs down, then the rocket attacks from Gaza will continue, and that would just force Israel to return. On the other hand, even if Hamas agreed to a cease-fire, the other Gaza militias will not go along, and once again, the rocket attacks will continue.
It's also worth mentioning that one of Meshaal's demands is not even under Israel's control. Israel has taken no position on whether Egypt should open or close the Rafah border crossing, but the government of Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has made it clear that they consider Hamas to be a terrorist group, and that the Rafah border crossing will remain closed except for specific humanitarian purposes. Ma'an News (Bethlehem) and BBC
As I wrote for the first time in 2003, it's the survivors of the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that have prevented a war that major from occurring again. In 2003, Yassir Arafat and Ariel Sharon, both survivors of the 1948 war, were the respective leaders of the Palestinians and Israelis. Today, both of them are gone, and in fact, almost every other survivor is also gone, with Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas being the sole major leader with personal memories of the horrors of the 1948 war.
Since 2003, as the number of 1948 war survivors have disappeared, and younger generations have grown to take their place, relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians have become increasingly dangerous. Among the Palestinians, Abbas has been the most important leader engage in peace talks and oppose the worst forms of Palestinian extremism, but his views are being opposed more and more by younger generations within his own PA organization.
The Gaza war and its hundreds of Palestinian casualties may have been a turning point for Abbas. Whereas he's been sharply critical of Hamas almost every day until yesterday, on Tuesday he gave a speech indicating a complete U-turn.
"From the first moment of this barbaric Israeli aggression against our people in Gaza, in Jerusalem, and in the West Bank, we have called loudly about the necessity of stopping this aggression. ...We have appealed to Egypt and have held talks with the president and with the relevant Palestinian factions, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. After that, we appealed to Turkey and Qatar; we approached the leaderships in both countries, and we met there with [Hamas political bureau head] Khaled Mashaal in order to stop the Israeli aggression and to arrive at a ceasefire, and from there to act to end the siege, to open the crossings, and to stop the aggression in all its forms; we demanded that [Israel] respect the Gazans' fishing rights, that it abolish the so-called 'buffer zones,' that it free the prisoners from the Shalit deal that Israel has re-arrested, that it free the fourth phase of the long-term prisoners and Legislative Council members; that there be an immediate operation to bring humanitarian aid [into Gaza], and that there be an international conference for the [countries] that are donating to Gaza's rehabilitation.
"The time has come for everyone to raise their voices and tell the truth, clearly and powerfully, in the face of the Israeli killing and destruction machine. The oppressing occupation forces have crossed every line and [have broken] all the laws. They have deviated from all standards of human and international morality in their ferocity and barbarism."
If this is indeed a complete U-turn by Abbas, then it's an extremely significant change in the geopolitics of the Mideast. It makes a cease-fire even less likely, if that's possible. But also, it's a big step forward toward the major war between Jews and Arabs that will engulf the region. Memri and BBC
Militants attacked an Egyptian military checkpoint on the border with Libya on Saturday, kill 21 border guards. The attack began with an exchange of gunfire, followed by the exploding of the checkpoint's ammunition storage by means of rocket-propelled grenades.
Hundreds of people have been killed in terrorist attacks in Egypt in the last year. The attacks have been focused mainly in northern Egypt in Sinai, on the border with Gaza and Israel. Egypt has blamed many of these attacks on militants from Hamas.
These two stories are closely related. There are large caches of weapons and explosives that were left behind during the war that defeated Muammar Gaddafi, and militants have been transporting these arms and explosives from Libya by various routes to Sinai. (See "2-Apr-14 World View -- Egypt's terror cells get training in Syria and explosives from Libya")
The terrorists who killed the border guards on Saturday are believed to be part of that transportation network.
So Saturday's terrorist attack may have been far away from the war in Gaza, but it's closely connected, and it helps explain why Egypt is not likely to help end the "siege" of Gaza by opening the border crossing at Rafah. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinians harden demands for agreement to a Gaza cease-fire thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Jul-2014)
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Report: Israeli warplanes strike weapons arsenal in Sudan
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The Al-Jazeera office in Gaza city was attacked with gunfire on Tuesday morning. No casualties were reported. The attack came in the midst of the continuing war between Gaza and Israel.
Al-Jazeera blamed the attack on Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, who threatened on Monday to expel al-Jazeera from Israel. According to al-Jazeera:
"The foreign minister’s comments were a direct threat against us and appear to have been taken as a green light for the targeting of our journalists in Gaza. We hold the Israeli authorities fully responsible. They have put the lives of journalists in danger."
Al-Jazeera has already been banned in Egypt, which accused it of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, considered a terrorist organization by Egypt's government. Al-Jazeera is headquartered in Doha, and is funded by Qatar, which has openly split with Egypt over the Gaza war. Egypt has also jailed al-Jazeera journalists just for reporting news in Egypt. ( "24-Jun-14 World View -- Egypt's Kangaroo Court finds Al-Jazeera journalists guilty with no evidence")
Lieberman's statement indicates that Israel is also considering banning al-Jazeera, claiming that it's openly biased against Israel in the war with Gaza.
"Qatar has turned into a global problem. Al Jazeera is a central pillar of the propaganda apparatus of Hamas. ...[Al-Jazeera] has abandoned even the perception of being a reliable news organization and broadcasts from Gaza and to the world anti-Israel incitement, lies, and encouragement to the terrorists."
There are several versions of al-Jazeera. The one I listened to until last year was al-Jazeera English. I've written about al-Jazeera's biases several times in the past. The interesting thing about al-Jazeera's biases is their attitudes towards the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. Hamas is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, so al-Jazeera loves Hamas, and hates the Palestinian Authority. In fact, my perception has been that al-Jazeera hates the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas even more than it hates Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Al-Jazeera Arabic has been vitriolically anti-American since its founding in 1996, and it provided open support for Osama bin Laden following the 9/11/2001 attacks. Even in recent years, al-Jazeera Arabic has continued to promote "a jihad ideology."
Starting in August of last year, al-Jazeera English was no longer available in the United States. Good ol' former VP Al Gore, the climate change saint, sold his defunct "Current TV" cable channel to Al-Jazeera for half a billion dollars, and that channel became "Al-Jazeera America" or AJAM.
Al-Jazeera America tries to emulate CNN by broadcasting the usual political stuff from Washington, with an American point of view, with far less anti-American and anti-Israeli vitriol than even Al-Jazeera English. However, this almost makes it irrelevant, since why would you want to hear about Washington from al-Jazeera, when you could hear about it from CNN, Fox, or MSNBC? That's probably why it's been doing poorly in the ratings, and has to lay people off. Al Gore really put one over on the Emir of Qatar, getting half a billion dollars for a defunct cable network.
I certainly agree that Al-Jazeera is a biased as people say it is, but they're really not any more biased than, say, NBC News. NBC News broadcasts what the Obama administration tells them to broadcast, and Al-Jazeera broadcasts what the Emir of Qatar tells them to broadcast. In both cases, there's a veneer of respectability and independence, but in both cases the biases are consistent.
So if you're like me and you want all points of view on the news, then the best time to listen to AJAM is during three particular hours of the day: At 6 am ET, 9 am ET, and 2 pm ET. During these hours, AJAM broadcasts the "Al-Jazeera News Hour" from al-Jazeera English, and so you get a lot more of the point of view of Hamas and the Palestinians during those time periods.
The 9 am ET hour on Monday was extremely contentious. The context was that Israeli warplanes had struck the Al-Aqsa hospital in Gaza City. They first interviewed Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi. She was permitted to talk for 5 or 10 minutes almost without interruption:
"Israel is engaged in war crimes. Israel is engaged in state terrorism. It is targeting and killing civilians. ..."We've heard some really disturbing statements, not just from Netanyahu, but being repeated like a mantra from Obama and John Kerry, talking about Israel in a state of self-defense, or the Palestinians using their own children as human shields. ...
That kind of language is intensely racist. I'm amazed that they even dare make these statements. Not only do they target you and kill you, but they rob you of your humanity."
I don't know what "racism" has to do with this, but I assume she learned that technique from the Obama administration. I was wondering if she also thought that the Israelis were misogynistic and homophobic as well, while she was at it.
After Ashrawi spoke for several minutes, unchallenged and almost uninterrupted, the next interview was with Mark Regev, spokesman for Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The interview was something of a shouting match, with the interviewer repeatedly accusing Israel of targeting the al-Aqsa hospital, and Regev repeatedly saying that civilian targets are legal when they're being used by the enemy's "war machine."
By the end of the interview, both sides were furious and shouting. Regev was asked once again, "Do you apply that to a hospital full of patients? Yes or no?" and he responded:
"I'll ask you a question.If your al-Jazeera cameramen could take pictures of Hamas rockets being launched from a hospital, then I'd be happy to answer questions like that. But they're not allowed to take pictures, because they know if they take pictures of rockets being fired from civilian areas, then they'll get into trouble with the local authorities.
Why is it that 2000 rockets have been fired on Israel, and you haven't got a single picture of a rocket being fired from an urban area?"
With that, the al-Jazeera interviewer responded: "We'll have to leave it there. Thanks so much, Mark Regev, spokesman for the Israeli prime minister." Al-Jazeera and Jerusalem Post
There are reports that Israeli warplanes on Friday struck a warehouse in Khartoum, Sudan, that was holding long-range missiles from Iran that were to be sent to Hamas in Gaza. Sudan admits that there was a big explosion, but denies that the warehouse contained weapons, and denied that Israel struck the warehouse. Israel has not commented.
As we reported yesterday in "22-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances", Sudan is forming an alliance with Qatar, Turkey and Iran in support of Hamas in its war with Israel.
Two weeks ago, Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir was seen meeting with Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal in Qatar. In October 2012, Sudanese government blamed an Israeli airstrike for the explosion of a military factory in the southern suburbs of Khartoum. Jerusalem Post and Sudan Tribune
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jul-14 World View -- Al-Jazeera attacked by gunfire in Gaza thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Jul-2014)
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Ukraine's pro-Russian separatists grudgingly give up 'black boxes'
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Late Monday, the pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine, under enormous international pressure, grudgingly handed over to Malaysian officials the "black boxes" from Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 that was shot out of the sky on July 17. The separatists, currently being led by self-declared prime minister Alexander Borodai, have been preventing international access to the crash site in order to hide the complicity of the separatists and Russia in shooting down the airliner. Borodai himself is a Russian, a former deputy directory of Russia's FSB (known as the KGB in Soviet days).
The so-called "black boxes" (which are actually orange) are likely to contain the last few minutes of the voices of the pilots flying MH17, as well as numerical data generated by the plane's computers. Most experts consider it unlikely that the MH17 pilots even suspected what was going to happen until the missile actually struck, and so the black boxes are not likely to contain data that would indicate culpability in the shoot down.
US Secretary of State John Kerry appeared on number Sunday news talk shows, and on each one he enumerated what he called "an enormous array of facts" providing evidence that Russia was implicated in shooting down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 on Thursday. Here are some of the items in his evidence list:
Russian commentators, including Russia's president Vladimir Putin, have been advancing one fantastical theory after another to deflect blame from themselves. The most common theme is that the Ukrainian government purposely shot down the airliner to given themselves an excuse to attack the separatists. It's hard to think of any better word than "desperate" to describe these theories. CNN and ABC News and NBC News
US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Cairo on Monday evening, apparently to add one more to the long list of fruitless peace mediations he's attempted. In this case, he's teaming up with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, in a joint effort to negotiate a peace process between Israel and Gaza. Both Kerry and Ban have made statements in the last few days suggesting that they're critical of the number of Palestinian casualties that have resulted from Israel's ground invasion of Gaza, and so both Kerry and Ban are widely seen at least slightly favoring Hamas over Israel.
In a sense, Kerry and Ban are playing out of their league because, really, no one in the Mideast really cares at all what they think. The Gaza war is inflaming a powerful geopolitical fault line in the Mideast, and events are not under the control any politician or group of politicians.
The Gaza war is exposing two major factions:
Long-time readers of Generational Dynamics are aware of the predictions, over a decade ago, of an approaching war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that following the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. However, there's been a need to fill in additional details, and one of the most important and most puzzling "details" was how the different Arab states would align themselves in that coming war between Jews and Arabs. These alignments are now beginning to clearly emerge.
I now have to add a word about Iran. As I've been saying for years, Iran will be an ally of the United States in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. This prediction is firm, but is only slightly related to what's happening in the Mideast. In the coming world war, China will be allied with Pakistan, and America will be allied with India -- which will be allied with Iran. The close ties between Hindus and Shia Muslims date all the way back to the epochal Battle of Karbala in 680, and the relationship continues to this day.
This suggests that the above alignment (Egypt + Saudi Arabia + Israel versus Qatar + Turkey + Iran) may not be final. In Egypt, for example, the Muslim Brotherhood won overwhelming popular political victories in the 2012 elections and the consitutional referendum. This popular loyalty could revive at any time, depending on circumstances. Also, the rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq in the last few months has been explosive. These facts indicate that many of the alignment "details" are still to be determined. (Paragraph corrected. 22-Jul) Reuters and CNN Wire and AFP and Debka and Israel Hayom
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Jul-2014)
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ISIS evicts Christians and Kurds from Mosul Iraq as new bomb blasts hit Baghdad
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Thirteen Israeli soldiers and dozens of Palestinian civilians were killed on Sunday, as Israel substantially widened and intensified the ground invasion of Gaza. The ground invasion has become a war over the major Hamas strategic assets: The network of dozens or perhaps hundreds of miles of underground tunnels criss-crossing Gaza, containing weapons storage and launching pads and bunkers for command and control. When the ground invasion began, three days ago, the focus was on tunnels at the border between Gaza and Israel, used by terrorists to invade Israel to kill or abduct Israeli citizens. But now the attack has moved into the heart of Gaza where Hamas has placed the most important strategic tunnels purposely in densely populated areas, so that striking at the tunnels is impossible without killing dozens or even hundreds of Palestinian civilians. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is saying that this situation is necessary because Hamas is using Gaza civilians as human shields, but others in the international community are calling the attack an Israeli massacre on innocent Palestinian civilians, including women and children. Jerusalem Post and Debka
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that the Gaza military operation will continue as long as required, but others in the international community are calling for immediate cessation of hostilities.
There's increasingly a question of what Israel's objectives are. It's becoming apparent that it would take at least several weeks (or months) of aggressive military action to destroy the tunnels, killing tens or hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians, but even then, it's likely that not all the tunnels would be destroyed. And even if they were, the tunnels could be rebuilt within a few months. So what's Israel's objective?
The logic of the situation leads many to think that the objective is to inflict as much pain on Gaza as possible, in order to discourage rocket attacks. Under this theory, Palestinians are being "massacred" for no other purpose but to buy a couple of years' time until the next war and the next "massacre."
In the meantime, militia factions in Gaza are increasing their military capabilities. Since the last war in 2012, the capacities of these militias have been enhanced through training exercises, following military training programs and curricula, including the development of special or commando forces.
Troop numbers have increased considerably. Hamas's military wing, the Ezz Al-Din Qassam Brigades, can be regarded as a "standing army" of some 7,000 soldiers, with 25,000 untrained fighters able to bear arms. Other militia groups with similar numbers include:
At the same time, the power and sophistication of the militias' weapons has been growing. In particular, the power and capabilities of the rockets being launched into Israel has been growing.
Following the "Egyptian Revolution" that began with on January 25, 2011, overthrowing Egypt's long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak, Hamas was able to smuggle large amounts of weapons provided by Iran into Gaza. According to one high-level Hamas official, this was the "golden era" of weapons smuggling:
"The brigades did not waste a single second. This was a golden era for the resistance’s arms. These basically consist of Russian weapons that come from Iran or elsewhere, or even from the free market that exists on both sides of the borders. Although the borders are now tightly controlled, arms are abundant. The closure of the tunnels slowed the flow of arms but did not stop it entirely. The promise of money makes smugglers very resourceful in finding new means to smuggle merchandise.We were certain that the situation in Egypt after the revolution would not last and that the Muslim Brotherhood would not remain in power for a single year let alone a single term. We were certain of this and we knew that we had to take as full advantage of that period as possible in order to secure arms and ammunition."
What should be increasingly clear to everyone is that the hope for some sort of "permanent peace" is absurd. As I wrote for the first time in 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts that there would be no peace between Arabs and Jews, and that they would be re-fighting the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that followed the 1947 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. When I wrote that in 2003, there were two groups of critics: the kind critics who called me "alarmist," and the unkind critics who called me "psychopathic." However, I doubt that either of those two groups of critics would doubt today that those predictions were correct. That war is coming, and the outcome will almost certainly not be favorable to Israel, as I wrote last week. Times of Oman and Al-Ahram (Cairo)
The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) tightened its grip on the northern Iraq city of Mosul in the last few days, first by evicting hundreds of Christian families, and then by preparing to evict Kurds as well. Christians have lived in Mosul for millennia, but now ISIS has delivered an ultimatum to Christians: Leave the city, pay a tax, or die. Those leaving the city are being stripped of all their belongings, and are permitted to keep only the clothes on their backs. Following the eviction of Christians, ISIS is giving Kurds only a few days to leave the city.
Muslims in both Mosul and Baghdad are expressing sympathy for the evicted Christians, and promising solidarity and aid. This comes as a new spate of suicide bombings struck Baghdad on Saturday. ISIS has claimed responsibility for the bombings, and claims that one of the two suicide bombers is a German national. Bas News (Erbil) and AFP and Today's Zaman (Ankara)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jul-14 World View -- Israel's war with the Gaza tunnels moves into population centers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Jul-2014)
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Why do Arabs have so many children?
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France has about 3,000 troops in Africa, as peacekeepers in two trouble spots -- Mali and Central African Republic. France was a major colonial power in Africa, and so demands for further French help in controlling terrorism in Africa is growing, especially with the rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). French presidents have tried in recent decades to reduce France's African involvement, known as Françafrique, but to no avail. France's current president, François Hollande, also tried to end Françafrique, but the rise of an insurgency in Mali and a potential genocide in Central African Republic have forced France to increase their forces, not reduce them.
Hollande is consolidating France's military effort into Operation Barkhane, headquartered in Chad's capital city, N'Djamena. From these headquarters, France will deploy troops, fighter jets, transport planes, drones, armored vehicles, and other military hardware in the anti-terror fight being fought across western Africa. France 24 and Economist
An editorial in the Amsterdam paper The Telegraaf calls Alexander Borodai, a leader of the east Ukraine pro-Russian separatist, and his cronies "Murderers," and criticizes Holland's prime minister Mark Rutte for not being aggressive enough in criticizing Russia's president Vladimir Putin for complicity in shooting down flight MH17 on Thursday:
"What has to happen before our government says 'we won't take this'. The Netherlands should be banging its fists on the table... the cabinet needs to make it clear to the world that we are seething with anger. This is terror, a war crime, mass murder!''The Netherlands is acting in this crisis as if it is a little country and that lessens the impact of the prime minister's words that he will not rest until the perpetrators are brought to justice.'"
An editorial in another paper says that peace in Europe has been built on the bones of millions of victims of nationalism, war and racism. Vladimir Putin, the paper says, is responsible for the return of echoes from the darkest period in European history.
At least 189 Dutch nationals are among the 298 people who were abord flight MH17 when it was shot down by a missile from eastern Ukraine, apparently pro-Russian separatists or by Russian military advisors.
These editorials come amidst stories that pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are disrespecting and "dragging around" the dead bodies of Dutch victims of the plane crash, and dispersing their luggage and belongings. Rutte is calling images of separatists holding up children's toys "too disgusting for words."
Apparently the pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine are purposely contaminating the crash scene and destroying evidence, and desperately trying to hide complicity of Russia in shooting down the airliner.
An outraged Mark Rutte had a "very intense" and "very personal" phone call with Putin on Saturday. 'I told him "time is running out for you to show the world that you have good intentions, that you will take responsibility",' according to Rutte:
"It is absolutely necessary and the first priority that the recovery of the victims take place as soon as possible. Everyone who does not cooperate immediately and fully casts a very serious suspicion on himself.I am shocked by the images of totally disrespectful behavior on this tragic place. Against all rules of a careful study, there appear to be people who walk around with the personal belongings of the victims, recognizable within the debris. This is downright disgusting. ...
I have just had a very intense phone call with the Russian president. I told him that time was running out, and he has one last chance ... to show the world that he does what is expected of him."
Dutch News and Netherlands government (Trans) and Netherland Times
In my article last week, "13-Jul-14 World View -- Will Israel win the next war between Arabs and Jews?", I pointed out that the birth rate in Sunni Muslim countries since World War II has been approximately double that of other countries. I speculated that Sunni Muslims had a "gritty determination" to beat the West by having more children, and I invited a communication from anyone having a better explanation.
I received that following from a woman in United Arab Emirates (UAE):
"I was reading your article on the Israeli-Arab war, as you called it, and you noted the considerably high family sizes and birth rate among Sunni Muslims in the Middle East as likely related to a plan to “outbreed” the Christians and Jews or whatnot.As a Sunni Muslim myself, I can give you some firsthand insight. Though this is not evidence in itself, for what it’s worth, I will tell you that I have never heard that suggestion (that we are trying to outbreed anyone) within my Muslim friend and family circles. Rather the cause of these high fertility rates is definitely rooted in Muslim culture itself.
Speaking largely for Arab families, we are heavily reliant on the support of extended family. It is not uncommon in the UAE, for example, to live in front of your in-laws, and I have seen my own grandparents nestling in neighborhoods alongside their brothers and sisters. It is a type of interdependence that is comfortable for Arabs, so much so that to any new generation saying they will not fulfill this duty to keep that big group of people to support on going by having a family themselves becomes an instant threat to the cultural fabric of that family.
I have grown up being told to have many kids so that they will be able to spread the message of Islam, similarly to how many yearn for sons to carry on the family name. It is natural for a people to want more of their kind.
Islam and Arab culture have been very mixed up in recent years— and may have been so for many years, in fact. The reality is that Islam respects the People of the Book (Christians and Jews). In theory we are to recognize their beliefs as key to our own. But in practice you know how far it is from the truth.
Anyway, hope you will find this insightful."
I thank this woman for being kind enough to send me this message.
There are two conflicting aspects to this concept, that Arabs always have large families as a cultural matter, to support one another and to spread Islam. On the one hand, it means that a lot of soldiers are available to win a war. On the other hand, it means that a lot more soldiers will be killed in the next war, when they will be used as cannon fodder. This is a subject that requires more research.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jul-14 World View -- Netherlands leads international outrage against Russia for airliner shootdown thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Jul-2014)
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Israel warns of 'significantly widening' the ground operation in Gaza
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On Friday, thousands of Israeli troops accompanied tanks rolling into Gaza. The military said that it hit at least 150 targets, including rocket launchers and tunnels used for raids, and for moving and storing weapons. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that operation could expand:
"Since it is impossible to deal with the tunnels only by aerial means, our troops are also dealing with it on the ground. Here as well, there are no guarantees for total success, but we will do the utmost to achieve the best result. My instructions to the IDF are to prepare for the possibility of significantly widening the ground operation, and the chief of staff and the military are prepared accordingly."
Israel has called up more than 53,000 reservists over the past week.
Israeli actions are the targets of protests in many countries, including Bangladesh, Jordan, South Africa, Venezuela, and Turkey, because of the Palestinian casualties. International officials are demanding a cease-fire and a peace agreement. Jerusalem Post and PBS and ABC News
On Friday, the United States all but accused Russia of pushing the button that launched the missile that shot down flight MH17. President Obama made this statement:
"Evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile that was launched from an area that is controlled by Russian-backed separatists inside of Ukraine. We also know that this is not the first time a plane has been shot down in eastern Ukraine. Over the last several weeks, Russian-backed separatists have shot down a Ukrainian transport plane and a Ukrainian helicopter, and they claimed responsibility for shooting down a Ukrainian fighter jet. Moreover, we know that these separatists have received a steady flow of support from Russia. This includes arms and training. It includes heavy weapons, and it includes anti-aircraft weapons."
At a meeting on the United Nations Security Council, US ambassador Samantha Power more explicitly accused Russia of complicity:
"We assess Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 carrying these 298 people from Amsterdam to Kuala-Lumpur was likely downed by a surface-to-air missile, a SA-11 operated from a separatist-held location in eastern Ukraine. ...Only SA-11, SA-20 and SA-22 are capable of hitting an aircraft at this flight’s altitude of 33,000 ft.
Separatists were spotted hours before the incident with the SA-11 system at the location close to the sight where the plane came down. Because of the technical complexity of the SA-11 it is unlikely they could effectively operate the system without assistance from knowledgeable personnel. Thus we can’t rule out technical assistance from Russian personnel in operating the systems."
Interestingly, Russia's UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin didn't attempt to refute these charges, except for the perfunctory claim, "We didn't do it."
Instead, Churkin blamed Ukraine's government for allowing passenger airlines in that airspace. Russia's president Vladimir Putin made a similar statement. This is like a bank robber blaming the robbery on the institution that built the bank.
Furthermore, Russian separatists in Ukraine are preventing researchers from investigating the crash. The wreckage has already been substantially contaminated.
So the visceral message conveyed by Russia's attitude is: "We don't really give a s--t that you think we shot down an airliner. We annexed Crimea and got away with it, and now we'll get away with this, and you're not going to do a single thing about it."
However, there may still be blowback on Russia. Hundreds of passengers were killed from numerous countries, including dozens of passengers from Holland and Germany, and some countries may, at the least, demand compensation at the International Court of Justice.
There may also be blowback in another form. This atrocity may force the Ukraine government to escalate its military action against the pro-Russia separatists in east Ukraine. At the same time, reports indicate that Russia troops are massing on the Ukraine border, suggesting that there may be a larger battle to come. White House and Russia Today and The Conversation
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jul-14 World View -- Russia blows off US accusation of complicity in shooting down airliner thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Jul-2014)
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Multiple simultaneous crises signal deteriorating geopolitics
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Thursday, the deterioration of the world's geopolitics took a giant step forward with two major new crises:
Also on Wednesday, there were a couple of "minor" crises of the kind that occur all the time. For the past five days, armed groups have been attacking Libya's main airport in Tripoli. Terrorists attacked the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, and in Pakistan, terrorists struck in Lahore in the east, and other terrorists struck in Hangu, in the northwest.
The world has become a much darker place in the 11 years since I started writing Generational Dynamics.
Flight MH17 was carrying 280 passengers and 15 crew members, when it crashed in east Ukraine near the border with Russia, killing everyone on board.
According to reports, Igor Strelkov, the commander of the pro-Russian separatist militias east Ukraine tweeting the following immediate after the MH17 was shot down:
"We shot down AN-26 [military transport] near the city Torez, Donetsk People's Republic ... We warned, don't fly in our sky."
Strelkov's militias had shot down at least two Ukrainian AN-26s in the last week, and was bragging that he'd shot down a third. The tweet was taken down a few minutes later, when he learned that he'd shot down a passenger plane.
But reports indicate that pro-Russian separatists are preventing any independent international investigation of the crash site to take place, and that they've confiscated the plane's "black boxes," and are sending them to Russia. It's believed that whatever investigation occurs will be conducted entirely by the Russians, who will simply cover up their activities. American, Europe and the United Nations did nothing beyond toothless sanctions when Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and they will do nothing in this case either.
It's a cruel irony that the flight MH17 that was shot down on Wednesday was a Malaysian Airways plane, just like the MH370 flight that disappeared on March 5, and still hasn't been found. Malaysian officials were excoriated, particularly by the Chinese, because there were so many Chinese victims, and the Malaysians didn't seem to know what was going on.
MH17 was on a flight from Amsterdam to Malaysia, and there were passengers from many countries throughout Asia, as well as from Europe and America. Countries like Japan, China and India have taken a neutral view of the entire Ukraine conflict. Now that many of these countries will have citizens who lost their lives because pro-Russian separatists shot down an airline with weapons supplied by Russia, will these countries continue to remain neutral to the Ukraine conflict? We'll have to wait and see. International Business Times and VOA and Newsweek
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jul-14 World View -- Will Russia get away with it again? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Jul-2014)
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Gaza conflicts open old wounds in the Arab world
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Egyptian columnists were furious a few days ago when Khaled Mashal, the leader of Hamas, criticized the Egyptian army for failing to come to the aid of the Palestinians in Gaza. Many pointed out that Mashal was living in luxury in a high class hotel in Doha, Qatar, instead of fighting in Gaza. According to one column, translated by Memri:
"Where is your spirit of heroism, Abu Walid [i.e., Khaled Mash'al]? Join your brothers. Leave Doha's hotels, which you have enjoyed, and go down into the trenches and fight the Zionist enemy that murders the fruits of our loins. Mash'al, we are tired of defending the [Palestinian] cause that you have sold for cheap to an MB gang whose way you followed even though they have lost their [own] way. We want neither a reward nor gratitude from you. Brother Mash'al, Egypt is in a state of war. We have enough problems [of our own]. We are sufficiently [busy with] the plots of your brethren, the members of your movement. You have bankrupted us. We are starving for bread while you eat delicacies on the tables of Doha's lowlifes... Egypt understands this message well and intends to extinguish the war you sparked, Mash'al... Remember the stature of the commander of the Egyptian army, who loses sleep to defend our children in Gaza and who opened the [Rafah] crossing to save them, while you languish in your bed in Doha!"
Besides the personal mocking of Mashal, the point of this and many Egyptian columnists is that Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is supported by Qatar, but which is considered a terrorist organization by Egypt's government. Numerous terrorist acts in northern Sinai, near the border of Gaza and Israel, are being blamed on the Muslim Brotherhood and on Hamas itself. For this reason, the tunnels underneath the wall separating Egypt from Gaza have been shut for years by Egypt's army. Even during the presidency of MB leader Mohamed Morsi, before he was ousted in an army coup, the tunnels and crossings were rarely opened, because it was too dangerous for Egypt.
When Egypt made its proposal to mediate the war between Gaza and Israel, almost everyone (myself included) were certain that Hamas would reject the proposal, not just because it came from Egypt, but also because they've been totally humiliated in the war because they launched thousands of missiles into Israel, and have almost nothing to show for it.
As we reported in March, the Gulf Arab states have had a major split over issues ranging from the Muslim Brotherhood to Iran. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain went so far as to recall their ambassadors from Qatar.
Those differences have been exacerbated by the current Gaza crisis. On Wednesday, leaders of Tunisia, Turkey and Qatar, joining with France, denounced the Egyptian regime as "unfit" for the role of mediator, and said that they're going to lead the mediation efforts between Israel and Gaza.
As it turned out, Israel has agreed to a five-hour cease-fire on Thursday on humanitarian grounds, but many reports indicate that the cease-fire may be a prelude to a full scale ground invasion. Memri and Middle East Monitor
Iran is promising to support Hamas with "all might," saying that they will make all efforts to serve the "Palestinian nation." A parliamentary delegation is poised to leave for Gaza. According to one MP:
"A Majlis [parliamentary] delegation will be dispatched to Gaza Strip to express sympathy with the families of Gaza martyrs and deliver donations from the Iranian people to the residents of this region."
Iranian Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani called on Muslim countries to stand united against Israel. Press Tv (Tehran) and Press Tv
For the last few months, sectarian violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has been centered in the capital city, Bangui, in the southwestern region of the country. However, new reports indicate that the violence has been moving east, and has now reached the region surrounding the central city of Bambari, and farther east.
After a coup last year by Muslim leader Michel Djotodia, Muslim Seleka militias began killing tens of thousands of Christians, and drove hundreds of thousands from their homes. This year, Christian anti-balaka militias have retaliated with vengeance, massacring hundreds of thousands of Muslims, and have driven millions more from their homes. ( "29-Mar-14 World View -- Christians versus Muslims in Central African Republic")
As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely.
The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the French colonialists, but it also had it share of the same kind of tribal violence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends, the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that were perpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their lives to making sure that nothing like that happens to their children or grandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors have passed away, so that there's no one left with a personal memory of the last crisis war, then there's nothing to stop a new crisis war from starting, and that's what's happening now.
New reports by Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) indicate that the sectarian violence that's occurred in the last few months is more extensive than previously believed. And reports by Human Rights Watch are documenting the spread and escalation of tit-for-tat sectarian violence into eastern parts of the CAR. Most of the victims were men who were chopped to death by machetes. According to an HRW director:
"Sectarian violence is moving eastward, engulfing new communities. The limited numbers of French and African Union peacekeepers deployed in Bambari are unable to adequately protect civilians and end the killings – although without their presence, the bloodshed would likely have been worse."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is headed for a genocidal generational crisis war, which will be just as bloody as the generational crisis war that occurred in Rwanda in 1994. It's becoming increasingly evident that this war will go beyond a civil war between Muslims and Christians in CAR, and will end up involving the French peacekeeping forces as active participants in the war, as well as other tribes and ethnic groups. Doctors Without Borders and Human Rights Watch
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jul-14 World View -- Sectarian violence continues to grow in Central African Republic thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Jul-2014)
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Turkey's prime minister Erdogan makes vitriolic attack on Israel
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Tuesday, Israel ordered thousands of Palestinians in eastern and northern Gaza to leave their homes before 8 am on Wednesday. Israel is using recorded telephone messages and leaflets to notify Gaza residents. It's not known whether the new action will be an escalated missile attack, or whether Israeli troops will be involved. BBC
Hamas rejected, and Israel accepted, the cease-fire proposal offered by Egypt on Monday evening. The proposal called for a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel to begin early Tuesday morning. Israel held off bombing Gaza for six hours, to give Hamas a chance to consider the proposal, and during that time, dozens of rockets were launched from Gaza into Israel. When it became clear that Hamas would not accept the proposal, Israel resumed bombing military targets in Gaza.
According to Hamas in a statement:
"To avoid confusion and to be clear with our people, al-Qassam Brigades confirm that we haven't been contacted by any official or unofficial entities about terms of this alleged initiative.If what has been circulated is true, this initiative means kneeling and submissiveness and so we completely refuse it and to us, it's not worth the ink used in writing it."
This is not surprising. As we wrote yesterday, Hamas has been humiliated by the fact that they've launched hundreds of rockets into Israeli territory and accomplished almost nothing, mainly thanks to Israel's sophisticated Iron Dome anti-missile system. For the Hamas leadership to agree to a cease-fire now would probably cause violence between the militant factions within Gaza itself, as the more extreme factions turn against Hamas leadership for allowing itself to be further humiliated.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement:
"We accepted the Egyptian proposal in order to present an opportunity for Gaza to be disarmed of its missiles, rockets, and tunnels through political means, but if Hamas does not accept this proposed cease-fire – and this is how it appears at present — Israel will have full international legitimacy for an expanded military operation to return the necessary quiet."
Hamas is infuriated by this situation because it appears that the entire cease-fire proposal was a setup to further humiliate Hamas, while giving Israel legitimacy to escalating its missile attacks on the military targets in Gaza.
According Michael Oren, Israel's former ambassador to Washington:
If Hamas rejects the very public diplomatic offer here, then if the fighting renews, Israel can then pursue its military goals with a tremendous amount of international legitimacy behind it – something that was lacking prior to the outbreak of the hostilities."
However, along with this legitimacy comes a great deal more tension between the two sides, with substantially more fury on the Hamas side and substantially more nationalism on the Israeli side.
Appearing on the BBC on Tuesday, Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the probability of an Israeli ground invasion into Gaza has increased substantially in the last 24 hours, and that the current conflict is "dangerously different" from the conflicts that occurred in 2012 and 2008:
"It is. What's worrying me now is not simply that you have Hamas against the Israelis, but there's a tribal element, because of the three Israelis who were killed, then the one Palestinian in the revenge killing. So you now have this taking place at multiple levels and it's not just organized violence, it's unorganized violence, and the two are potentially truly dangerous."
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Arabs and the Jews are headed for a war characterized by exactly this kind of unorganized "tribal" violence. It may happen this time, or in two years, or in five years, but it's coming, and the outcome will almost certainly not be favorable to Israel. International Middle East Media Center (Gaza) and Jewish Telegraphic Agency and CS Monitor
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday accused Israel of "terrorizing the region" with its bombardment of Gaza:
"With utter disregard for international law, Israel continues to terrorize the region, and no country but us is telling it to stop. It has sprayed bullets and caused deaths, as it does every Ramadan.No tyranny is everlasting; sooner or later every tyrant has to pay the price... This tyranny will not remain unaccounted for."
Erdogan also criticized an Israeli member of parliament, Ayelet Shaked of the ultra-nationalist Jewish Home party, for saying that "mothers of the martyrs" should also be killed. "What is the difference between this mentality and Hitler's?" asked Erdogan. Zaman (Ankara)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jul-14 World View -- Hamas furious at Egypt's cease-fire proposal, as violence escalates thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Jul-2014)
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Rise of ISIS spawns new jihadist groups in Indonesia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A Ukrainian AN-26 military transport flying near the border with Russia was shot down on Monday. Ukraine is accusing Russia of shooting down the plane from Russian territory which, if true, could be an important game-changer in the geopolitical battle that currently involves Russia, Ukraine, the European Union and the United States.
According to Ukraine's government:
"Factoring in that the plane was flying at the altitude 6,500m, it was impossible to hit it with man-portable anti-aircraft system, which means the plan was attacked by some other, more powerful rocket weapon, which was used, probably, from the territory of the Russian Federation. ...At the moment, judging from the data provided by Ukrainian airmen, two theories are being considered: the shot was fired from the up-to-date surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery weapon system Pantsir or a self-guided air-to-air missile X-24 from a Russian plane, which could have been scrambled from the airfield Millerovo [Russia]."
Ukrainian officials are examining the wreckage. If it's proved that Russian forces shot down the plane, then Ukraine may be forced to make its own military response, targeting Russian assets. Furthermore, EU and American officials may now feel obligated to impose much harsher sanctions on Russia, or be accused of letting Russia cross another "red line," with no response.
Russia has made no comment. Separately, Nato reported a Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border, increasing their number to 12,000 troops. Ukraine News Agency and AP and BBC
As we've been reporting for a year and a half, the result of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad's genocidal activities directed towards innocent Sunni women and children in Syria has made Syria a jihadist magnet for militants around the world to receive terrorist training. And in the last few months, it's resulted in the formation of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS), which has taken control of a large region in eastern Syria and western Iraq.
Authorities in Indonesia are concerned about the rise of ISIS for two separate reasons. One is the concern that many countries have -- that dozens of Indonesian would-be jihadists have gone to Syria for training, and may come home with new skills and capabilities and renewed ideological commitment to conduct armed jihad.
However, the success of ISIS in gaining territory has made ISIS a model for terrorist groups within Indonesia itself. Jihadist groups within Indonesia are swearing allegiance to ISIS, and are promoting ISIS locally through community-based events such as charity work. The number of ISIS cheerleaders online is also rising. New pro-ISIS websites, Facebook groups and Twitter accounts continue to emerge with thousands of followers. So the rise of ISIS could determine new directions for the militant Islamist movement in Indonesia, and increased violence. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)
Egypt is proposing to mediate a cease-fire starting early on Tuesday in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, followed by a series of meetings and negotiations. It's not believed that Israel would agree to a cease-fire without a permanent cessation of rocket launchings from Gaza into Israel.
It's believed that pressure from Islamic Jihad would prevent Hamas from agreeing to any cease-fire. A cease-fire would be humiliating because Gaza has launched hundreds of rockets, but not a single Israeli has been killed. Many have landed on unpopulated farmland, and many others have been shot down by Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system, so that Gaza has absolutely nothing to show for all the rockets they've sent. BBC
The Palestinian representative to the U.N. Human Rights Council (UNHCR) was interviewed on TV on the subject of going to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and charging Israel with war crimes and crimes against humanity. According to Ibrahim Khreisheh:
"The missiles that are now being launched against Israel – each and every missile constitutes a crime against humanity whether it hits or misses, because it is directed at a civilian targets. What Israel does against Palestinian civilians also constitutes crimes against humanity. With regard to crimes of war under the Fourth Geneva Convention – the settlements, the Judaization, the checkpoints, the arrests, and so on – we find ourselves on very solid ground. However, there is a Palestinian weakness with regard to the other issue. Therefore targeting civilians – be it one civilian or a thousand – is considered a crime against humanity. ...Please note that many of our people in Gaza appeared on TV and said that the Israeli army warned them to evacuate their homes before the bombardment. In such a case, if someone is killed, the law considers it a mistake rather than an intentional killing, because [the Israelis] followed the legal procedures. As for the missiles launched from our side: We never warn anyone about where these missiles are about to fall, or about the operations we carry out. Therefore, people should know more before they talk emotionally about appealing to the ICC."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jul-14 World View -- Ukraine accuses Russia of shooting down military transport plane thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Jul-2014)
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Why the U.S. can't offer effective help to Nigeria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
In a 16-minute video, Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau is claiming responsibility for a bombing in Nigeria's main southern port city of Lagos on June 25, a bombing that the government apparently tried to cover up by saying that it was an accident. There was a huge explosion on June 25 in a shopping mall in Nigeria's capital city Abuja, killing 24 people, as we reported at the time,, and Boko Haram was assumed responsible for it. However, the second explosion on the same day, in Lagos, was called an accident by the government, apparently to avoid panicking the population. Investigations by the press had already determined that it was a terrorist attack, not an accident, and now Boko Haram is claiming responsibility.
A terrorist attack on Lagos could be a significant blow to Nigeria's economy because Lagos is an international business hub. The target of the Lagos attack was a fuel depot. Fortunately, the female suicide bomber never reached the depot because, if she had, it would have caused a massive chain explosion. Since the suicide bomber was apparently poorly trained, it's thought that the bombing was perpetrated by Boko Haram itself.
Boko Haram has been thought of as a terrorist group operating in northeast Nigeria, where it has abducted hundreds of schoolgirls, who have still not been freed after several months. If group can now conduct terror attacks all the way to the Lagos in the south, it would mean a significant increase in Boko Haram's reach.
There's also evidence that Boko Haram is responsible for numerous attacks on farmers. Almost every developing country has major battles at some point between farmers and cattle or camel herders. The herders' animals trample the farmers' crops, infuriating the farmers. The farmers then put up fences which block the herders, infuriating the herders. This is a theme in several African countries, including Kenya and Sudan. In Nigeria, there have been a marked increase in deadly attacks on farmers, and they've been blamed on cattle herders from the Fulani tribe. But some officials suspect that the attacks might be linked to Boko Haram, who are from the Kanuri ethnic group, but may have been infiltrated by Fulani. Nigeria Guardian News and Reuters
In the 16-minute video, Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau mocks the #BringBackOurGirls hashtag twitter campaign, featuring Michele Obama carrying a sign with the hash tag. The campaign has been completely ineffective.
There have been numerous questions about why the U.S. isn't doing more to help Nigeria recover the girls. The question was answered on Thursday by Lauren Blanchard, a specialist on African affairs, speaking to a Congressional committee. According to Blanchard:
"[The main impediment is] gross violations committed by the Nigerian forces, the Nigerian government’s resistance to adopting a more comprehensive approach to Boko Haram, and the continued lack of political will."
In particular, the Nigerian government has simply stalled in approving Nigerian units for training and assistance:
"Multiple systemic factors further constrain the effectiveness of the Nigerian security force’s response to Boko Haram, notably security sector corruption and mismanagement, and some of these factors impede US support even for units that have been cleared for assistance."
It's suspected that because of tribal loyalties, some factions in Nigeria's army and policy are sympathizing with Boko Haram, and perhaps working for the terrorist group. Osun Defender (Nigeria)
Militants in Egypt's northern Sinai, near the border with Israel, fired mortar rounds late Sunday at a military post, killing a soldier and seven civilians. Militants in Sinai have also fired rockets at Israel in support of Palestinians during the war in Gaza.
Militants have found a haven in northern Sinai, particularly after the turmoil in Egypt since 2011. Egyptian officials are concerned that the rise of Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) will increase terrorist activities in Sinai. The fear is that al-Qaeda linked organizations and Salafist jihadists will merge with ISIS or "declare allegiance" to it. It's not expected that many jihadists in Sinai to convert to ISIS, and it's believed that there are no Egyptians in the ISIS command hierarchy. In fact, some Muslim Brotherhood leaders have refused to recognize ISIS. But ISIS might attack supporters among extremist militias in Libya, or from Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), and those supporters might come to Sinai. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Ahram
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jul-14 World View -- Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Jul-2014)
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Israeli special forces appear to be fighting in Gaza
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Islamic Jihad and the Al-Quds Brigades in Gaza are claiming they clashed on Sunday morning with Israeli special forces that entered Gaza. The Israeli army has confirmed these reports. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel is considering a ground invasion of Gaza, but that no decision has yet been reached.
However, other reports indicate that Netanyahu is considering proposing an exit strategy for the war. First, Israel will eradicate a major portion of Hamas's military resources in Gaza, but leave it in power.
Second, Israel will back down from a ground invasion of Gaza in return for international agreement that Israeli forces will be assigned the responsibility for the security of the Jordan Valley and the West Bank, to protect them from an invasion of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) from Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. Al Aribiya and Jerusalem Post and Debka
I received a number of comments questioning my statements in "9-Jul-14 World View -- Mideast war or peace? It all depends on what Hamas wants." four days ago. I wrote that many Arabs want a war with Israel because they believe that they could win it, simply based on population. Israel has 7.8 million people, while there are 123.2 million Arabs in adjoining countries, and population is destiny.
There were two categories of objections: Biblical prophecy, and history. I'll address both of them below.
But in reading the Mideast press, I get the strong impression that the Israeli people are way overconfident, and are certain they can't lose. This is in contrast to Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who gives me the feeling that he's in a state of panic. From the Palestinian leaders, I get the impression of gritty determination that this time they're going to win.
However, in writing this article, I'm not taking an ideological stand. I'm following the Generational Dynamics methodology. And in that methodology a war is an act of nature, like an earthquake or a hurricane. It's neither good nor bad. Like an earthquake, it accomplishes nothing but destruction. As I first wrote my analysis of President Bush's Mideast Roadmap to Peace, in May, 2003, a war between Arabs and Jews is coming with absolute certainty, just as earthquakes and hurricanes come with absolutely certainty.
So this article continues the previous analysis by addressing the question of whether Israel is going to win the next major war between Jews and Arabs. The analysis indicates that Israel is probably going to lose. But wars end, in the aftermath, there may yet be a new Israel.
People who believe in Biblical prophecy often look to the Bible to try to discern what will happen to Israel. One person wrote the following to me:
"The one thing wrong with Generational Dynamics theory is it does not account for religion. I am 100% backer of Generational Dynamics except when it comes to Israel who is Yahweh's chosen people, even though they don't act like it. He would not let the region be trampled on by Esau's and Ishmael's descendants. I don't want to enter in a debate of who believes in what. I'm just saying that comparing Israel's 7.8 million versus 123.2 million Arabs and giving the victory to the Arabs is a bit premature. Just sit back and watch what happens."
I would respond by saying that no one could know what Yahweh's plan is. Perhaps his plan is to let Israel be trampled on by Esau's and Ishmael's descendants, so that a new Israel can rise from the ashes. That would be completely in the spirit of many historical Biblical stories.
In fact, if you think about it, Israel was created by the United Nations out of the ashes of World War II. It would certainly be consistent with millennia of Jewish history if Israel were completely destroyed by the coming war, and then rose again afterwards.
Here's a comment that a web site reader sent to me in February 2011, as the Arab world was in tumult over the "Arab Awakening" in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and other countries:
"I feel you are off in a few points. The biggest problem is you do not address the Bible's predictions in your assessments of a world conflict. As the Bible sees it, we shall have a limited war in the Middle East (Psalm 83/Isaiah 17/Jeremiah 49) that will involve Israel vs. Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. This war will end with Israel 'nuking' Damascus off the map and the world CRYING for a peace plan. With the inner ring of Arab nations conquered by Israel the Middle East problems will be seen as over, a 'new' global leader will provide a seven year treaty that makes more war impossible. Though when everyone says 'peace and safety', the end comes quickly. In 2-3 months I think, Russia and Iran and the outer ring of Arab nations will attack Israel in revenge (with Russia adding their might, but planning to double-cross the Arabs once things are done). ... As Ezekiel 38-39 reads God will supernaturally save Israel, and leave but 1/6th of its attackers alive."
First, I try to tell people who believe in Bible prophecy to interpret today's events to be very cautious, because populations have moved. Just to take one example, the Turks came from central Asia, and didn't move into Anatolia (today's Turkey) until about 1000 years ago. So someone using Bible prophecy to interpret events today about Turkey would have to explain away the fact that there's a whole new race of people living in Turkey, different from the people who lived there at the time of the prophecy.
However, I particularly want to focus on the prophecy about Damascus, which several people have written to me about over the years, in Isaiah 17:1-3:
"1 The oracle concerning Damascus. "Behold, Damascus is about to be removed from being a city And will become a fallen ruin. 2 "The cities of Aroer are forsaken; They will be for flocks to lie down in, And there will be no one to frighten them. 3 "The fortified city will disappear from Ephraim, And sovereignty from Damascus And the remnant of Aram; They will be like the glory of the sons of Israel," Declares the LORD of hosts."
There are many people who interpret these verses as indicating that someone is going to drop a nuclear weapon on Damascus. The attacker would be Israel or Iran or Russia, according to different interpretations.
What's fascinating about this prophecy is that it seems that almost everyone in the Mideast seems to know about it. So if anybody actually DOES drop a bomb on Damascus at some time in the future, it will truly be a self-fulfilling prophecy, since the attacker will certainly justify this action by saying it's a Bible prophecy. Thus, it would be possible to argue that the CAUSE of the nuclear attack on Damascus would have been the Bible prophecy.
So the net result of all this is that it's very difficult to justify applying any Biblical prophecy to today's events, and every easy to get into trouble because of it. Pulpit Biblical Commentary
Several people sent me messages something like the following:
"In fact Israel was already outnumbered like that in 1948 and 1967 and 1973. It always had a more efficient army with American-made up-to-date weapons."
As I mentioned earlier, this statement is based on an invalid assumption that just because Israel, with 7.8 million people, won wars in the past against Arabs, with over 100 million people, that they'll do it again. In fact, my reading is that the Israeli people (as opposed to the politicians) are so overconfident, they may lose rather quickly and decisively.
However, I'd like to focus on another aspect of the population issue, that I've written about in the past. Here, from the CIA World Fact Book, are the number of births per 1000 population in various Sunni Muslim countries:
Egypt 23.35 Gaza Strip 32.20 Jordan 25.23 Kuwait 20.26 Lebanon 14.80 Libya 18.40 Pakistan 23.19 Syria 22.76 West Bank 23.41 Yemen 31.02
And here are the number of births per 1000 population for some other countries:
China 12.17 France 12.49 Germany 8.42 India 19.89 Israel 18.44 Japan 8.07 Korea, South 8.26 Russia 11.87 United Kingdom 12.22 United States 13.42
Since World War II, the birth rate in Sunni Muslim countries has been roughly twice as high as in other countries.
I've been aware of this since the 1990s, since it was mentioned in Samuel P. Huntington's book "The Clash of Civilizations." I've asked many Muslims why this has been happening, and I've never gotten an explanation. So I can only make an educated guess.
Around 1300, a Muslim Turkish tribe led by its chieftain, Osman, started making conquests, eventually becoming the Ottoman Empire. It had a series of almost unbroken conquests, including the destruction of the Byzantine Empire in 1453. It continued with one success after another until 1683, when the Habsburgs (Germans) defeated the Ottomans, almost destroying their entire army, in the War with the Holy League (1683-99). This was a calamitous defeat, and signaled a reversal of the Ottoman Empire's fortunes. There were further defeats, culminating in the complete destruction of the Ottoman Empire, and the declaration of the secular Turkish Republic in 1922. This was also the end of the worldwide Islamic Caliphate in Istanbul.
So after roughly 300 years of almost unbroken victories, the Muslim world suffered roughly 300 years of almost unbroken defeats. This led to several decades of chaos, and eventually to "the Nakba" or "the catastrophe" -- the partitioning of Palestine in 1948, and the creation of Israel.
My speculation is that a sense grew across the Muslim world that these repeated Muslim defeats could be turned to victories in only one way: by outbreeding the Jews and Christians. I don't know if anyone issued a fatwa or if some Muslim politician made an appeal. But in the six decades since World War II, when Western politicians were encouraging couples to have no more than two children, to prevent a population explosion, the Muslim world was encouraging couples to have as many children as possible, in order to defeat the West.
That's my speculation for why the birth rate in the Sunni Muslim countries has been twice the birth rate in Western countries. If some Islamic scholar or historian has a better explanation, I would like to hear it, and I would welcome receiving a communication on the subject.
Returning now to the original topic, since the time of the Nakba, there has been a gritty determination in the Arab world to defeat Israel, and they may very well succeed. But the destruction of the Ottoman Empire didn't mean the end of the Muslims, and the destruction of Israel will not mean the end of the Jews. It's well to remember that the Jews have survived for millennia, despite many attempts to exterminate them, and there's little doubt that the Jews will survive again, whether Israel does or not.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jul-14 World View -- Will Israel win the next war between Arabs and Jews? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Jul-2014)
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Health workers flee from West Africa as Ebola epidemic spreads
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Israel's bombing campaign in Gaza is targeting Hamas military installations, but is also targeting farms or bare land and even greenhouses. The reason is that the Palestinian militias have learned important lessons in previous wars with Israel, and have set up sophisticated defenses in the form of an extensive network of tunnels, some as much as 30 meters deep. Over time, Hamas's engineers and diggers -- known by Israel as "spiders" -- gained a great deal of expertise in setting up "underground cities," with bunkers and fortifications, all hooked up to electricity and oxygen. These tunnels can hide thousands of missiles and missile launchers from Israeli spy planes, but that's only one of their purposes.
If Israel wants to achieve its stated goal of getting rid once and for all of Gaza's rocket launching system, it's going to need a ground invasion to clean out all the tunnels and bunkers.
But then the web of tunnels takes on the even deadlier purpose of trapping Israeli soldiers entering Gaza, according to a Hamas leaflet:
"The Qassam Brigades’ strong point is if Israel decides to launch a ground offensive, it would transform its soldiers from hunters to hunted, sitting ducks caught in a crossfire, as a result of the careful planning, preparations, surveillance, identification of the enemy’s weak points and use of the element of surprise to confound the Israelis and decimate them in gun battles with fighters who would prove their superior fighting ability.These tunnels, dug under every street and alley in Gaza, constitute a strength to be exploited by the brigades to exacerbate the Israeli military’s confusion and create security concerns that the army will be unable to deal with. This will lead to a fundamental problem that compels it to modify its rules of engagement with Hamas."
The tunnels also pose a threat to rural communities in Israel along the border with Gaza. There are dozens of tunnels that can be used by Hamas to infiltrate Israel and kill or abduct civilians and soldiers. Al-Monitor and Jerusalem Post and Al-Monitor
Health workers on the front line of the spreading Ebola epidemic in western Africa are returning home from their assignments. The Ebola virus continues to spread rapidly in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, with 44 new cases and 21 deaths in the last three days, bringing the total to 888 cases and 539 deaths since February. Health workers are being disproportionately affected, because they're the ones who care for the sick patients, and yet they are not provided with even the most basic supplies, such as hand gloves. Without gloves, a person touching an Ebola patient is likely to contract Ebola himself. There are accusations that the little money being allocated to fight Ebola is being pocketed by executives and bureaucrats, with little left for supplies and logistics for the front line health workers. This is already the worse Ebola epidemic in history, and if the exodus of health workers continues, the epidemic could become catastrophic for the region. Even so, there's no danger of a worldwide epidemic, since Ebola is only spread through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person, as opposed to a virus that can spread through the air. All Africa and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza tunnels make Israeli ground offensive dangerous but necessary thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Jul-2014)
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A humiliated Russia considers next steps in east Ukraine
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The decisive victory of the Ukraine government forces over the pro-Russian separatists in Slovyansk last week has left the Russian leaders searching for a new direction. At one extreme, a group led by Russian ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, who first called for the annexation of Crimea, is calling on Russia's president Vladimir Putin to intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine, "to save Russia's moral authority." The pro-Russian separatists did not even put up much of a fight, in Slovyansk and several other cities, fleeing to other strongholds in Donetsk and Luhansk. The leader of the separatists is insisting that there will be no retreat from Donetsk, but Moscow fears that those two cities will fall quickly as well, leading to total humiliation in Moscow.
Ukraine's military offensive is continuing, with air strikes targeting separatists positions near Donetsk, killing and dislodging them. Ukraine's ground forces are attempting to close the border with Russia, which has been a sieve through which Russia has supplied the separatists with tanks, armored personnel carriers, anti-aircraft guns, and other weapons. Ukraine's government is resisting calls for a cease-fire, and says that the "all-out" assault on pro-Russian separatists may last another month
According to one analysis, the Russian air force could be preparing for a covert action over Donbas to support the rebels, as a last step short of direct intervention. In a similar conflict in 1992–1993 in Abkhazia, Russian air force jets and helicopter gunships attacked Georgian government positions, posing as unidentified rebel aircraft, while Moscow stringently denied any involvement — as today it denies sending arms and men into Donbas. If there is no ceasefire soon, the Russian air force may go into covert action over Donbas as early as next week. Jamestown and BBC and AFP and Jamestown
Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines have been forming an alliance against China, as China has been moving to annex other countries' territories in the South and East China Seas. Relations between Vietnam and China have become particularly hostile since China deployed an oil rig in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). (See "China's neighbors react to new South China Sea claims" from last week.)
Now Australia is signaling that it is also joining this alliance. The change in policy was indicated in a statement by Australia's foreign minister, Julie Bishop, during a visit by Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe to Australia to meet Australia's prime minister Tony Abbott. Like many of China's neighbors, Australia had had a policy of being careful not to anger China, for fear of retaliation.
But there was a major confrontation last November, after China announced an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), demanding that any foreign aircraft flying into the East China Sea would have to inform China's military beforehand. ( "24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands".)
Julie Bishop was visiting Beijing at that time, and complained about the unilateral declaration of the ADIZ. According to reports, China's foreign minister told her that the ADIZ was none of her business, and he "famously tore strips off her," with cameras rolling. ("Tear strips off somebody" is apparently an Australian expression meaning to severely scold someone.)
So now, Bishop is explaining that she's learned some lessons from that experience. In particular, Australia's previous policies of reticence toward China have only caused confusion, and that it's better to be frank than misunderstood:
"China doesn’t respect weakness.The freedom of the skies and freedom of the seas in that part of the world is important to us because that’s where the majority of our trade is done.
So I believed that, at that time, we had to make it clear where we stood on unilateral action that could be seen as coercive and could be seen to – and which did – affect our national interests. ...
So, when something affects our national interest then we should make it very clear about where we stand."
Bishop said she had no doubt that America would remain the pre-eminent force internationally:
"This is a debate that the US will have to have about its role in the world. It is currently the only super power with the military capability to act globally and the US must determine whether it’s going to continue in that role. I believe that it must, and it will."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jul-14 World View -- Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Jul-2014)
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Measles spreading rapidly in China
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The United Nations is expected to hold crisis talks on the Israel-Hamas war on Thursday, as the war escalates.
On Wednesday, Palestine’s Permanent Observer to the United Nations, Riyad Mansour, said the following:
"The intensification of Israel’s aggression against the 1.7 million Palestinians imprisoned in the Gaza Strip by Israel’s immoral blockade threatens to further destabilize the dangerous situation on the ground and fully ignite yet another round of deadly violence. ...[T]he occupying Power has intensified its onslaught against the besieged Gaza Strip in grave breach of international law, including international humanitarian law and the relevant provisions regarding the protection of civilians in armed conflict and in grave breach of the prohibition of reprisals and collective punishment against the civilian population under occupation. ...
War crimes are clearly being perpetrated by Israel against the Palestinian people and this must be unequivocally condemned and stopped. A strong message must be sent to Israel, the occupying Power, to cease immediately its military campaign and abide by the law, in order to deescalate this dangerous situation, to promote calm, and, most importantly, to save innocent civilian lives."
Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations Ron Prosor responded, making the following points which I'm summarizing from memory:
Prosor's charge is confirmed by a Hamas spokesman in an interview, translated by Memri, when asked about people "reverting to the human shield method" of opposing Israel:
"This attests to the character of our noble, Jihad-fighting people, who defend their rights and their homes with their bare chests and their blood. The policy of people confronting the Israeli warplanes with their bare chests in order to protect their homes has proven effective against the occupation. Also, this policy reflects the character of our brave, courageous people. We in Hamas call upon our people to adopt this policy, in order to protect the Palestinian homes."
According to Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
"Hamas is committing a double war crime by intentionally trying to hit Israeli citizens, and using the local Gaza population as human shields."
The rhetoric appears to be heating up to the extent that neither side is giving itself a way to back down. Tensions are rising and events are moving quickly in the Mideast. It's still possible that things will settle down and return to the usual status quo, but it's also possible that we'll be seeing a major war within a week or two. WAFA (Palestine) and Memri and Jerusalem Post
The US Embassy in Tel Aviv, Israel, has been closed, and is providing only "minimal services," mostly by e-mail. Some rockets and missiles that have been launched from Gaza in the last few days have reached as far as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. According to a leaked United Nations report, it's believed that Iran has been supplying Hamas with long-range M-302 missiles. US Embassy in Israel and Jerusalem Post and CS Monitor
The number of cases of measles is growing rapidly in China this year. The rise in the number of cases is being blamed on the number of migrant workers -- 245 million migrant workers, or 18% of the population -- and the fact that migrant workers haven't been getting vaccinations. China Digital Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jul-14 World View -- Israel and Hamas accuse each other of war crimes thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Jul-2014)
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Hamas says that all Israelis are now targets
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Several Palestinian spokesmen that I heard on Tuesday on the BBC and al-Jazeera said that any Israeli, man, woman or child, is now a target of Hamas, since Israel has been illegally occupying Palestinian territory since 1948.
Hamas has been trying, in fact, to make every Israeli citizen a target by launching hundreds of missiles into Israel from Gaza. Some of these are Syrian-made M302 rockets that can reach as far as Jerusalem or Tel Aviv, much farther than Hamas's capability in the past.
This has resulted in a war of air attacks. Israel is retaliating with its warplanes by attacking hundreds of suspected rocket launch sites in Gaza.
Israel's Defense Force (IDF) called up 1,500 reservists on Monday, and on Tuesday announced that it would begin calling up 40,000 more reservists, in preparation for a possible ground invasion into Gaza.
This does not imply that a ground invasion is imminent. It will take a number of days or several weeks to make all the preparations necessary for a ground invasion. In fact, Israeli officials have suggested that they're proceeding slowly in order to Hamas room to stand down. Jerusalem Post and BBC and Jerusalem Post
First, I have to remind long-term Generational Dynamics readers that the very first major analysis that I wrote was in May 2003, when President George Bush issued his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," which called for a Palestinian state by 2005, side by side with Israel. In that analysis, I wrote that the Mideast Roadmap would fail, and that in fact the Mideast was going to re-fight the 1948 war between the Arabs and the Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. I said that this war would be delayed as long as the survivors of the 1948 war, particularly Yassir Arafat and Ariel Sharon, were alive, because they remembered the horrors of that war, and would do everything possible to keep those horrors from being repeated.
There have been four wars since then -- the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012.
However, none of these wars spiraled out of control because, as the saying goes, cooler heads prevailed. And those cooler heads would most likely be survivors of the 1948 war.
But cooler heads are disappearing as the years go by, and the survivors die off. More and more, younger generations are determining policy, and these are not cool heads. In the last weeks, we've seen young Israelis call for "Death to Arabs" on social networking sites, and we've seen what are undoubtedly younger generations of Palestinians rioting in the West Bank and shooting off rockets in Gaza.
More and more, you hear Palestinian leaders say that they have no desire or motivation to seek peace. (The major exception is Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, who is also a 1948 war survivor.)
This is especially true in Gaza. Hamas used to have a friend in Egypt, but the new government under Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi considers the Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist group, and sees Hamas, which is an offshoot of the Brotherhood, in the same way. Hamas used to have a friend in Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but Erdogan has too many of his own problems, especially with Syria. Hamas used to have friends in Syria and Iran, but those friendships became diminished when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad began his "industrial strength" genocidal campaign against Sunni Muslims. Hamas just became part of a "unity government" with the Palestinian Authority, but Hamas is clearly a partner in name only, with little real influence in the joint government.
So Hamas really has no friends left, and Gazans deeply resent the "Gaza prison" that they live in. So there's little or no desire, especially among young people, to show restraint in attacking Israel.
Undoubtedly many Gazans want a war with Israel, and undoubtedly many feel that they can win a war with Israel, when it becomes a war between Jews and all Arabs. If all Arabs join in, then those sentiments are undoubted right, as you can see by comparing populations. Israel has a population of 7.8 million. The Arab nations and territories that adjoin Israel include Gaza - 1.8 million, West Bank - 2.7 million, Lebanon - 5.9 million, Jordan - 7.9 million, Syria - 18.0 million, and Egypt - 86.9 million.
So that's Israel's 7.8 million versus 123.2 million Arabs in the adjoining countries. There's little doubt who would win that war. And when one of the Palestinian television commentators said on Tuesday that Israel had no right to exist because it was on Palestinian land, he was saying that the 1948 would be re-fought, and that this time the Arabs would win.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that the Mideast is headed for a major war, refighting the 1948 war between Arabs and Jews, is 100% certain. I said this in 2003 in commenting on President Bush's Mideast Roadmap to Peace, and I've said it repeatedly since then, especially during the recent farcical "peace process" engineered by John Kerry and the Obama administration.
So now Israel and Hamas are headed for some kind of imminent conflict. Will it spiral into a full-scale war between Arabs and Jews? The Israelis don't want that, because they know they would almost certainly lose. The Israelis can only hope that some of the Arabs turn against each other. So whether it's war or peace is really up to Hamas and the Palestinians. The groups launching the rockets into Israel certainly want war, but there are still a few cooler heads around, even in Gaza. These full-scale wars have to come in their own time, and it may not yet be the time.
A full-scale war between Arabs and Jews is coming with absolute 100% certainty. But whether it happens "this time" or "the next time" or "the time after that" remains to be seen. But one of these times, it will happen. Times of Israel and International Middle East Media Center (Gaza)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jul-14 World View -- Mideast war or peace? It all depends on what Hamas wants. thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Jul-2014)
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Russia's Vladimir Putin appears to be the loser in Ukraine
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Izz al-Din al-Qassam, the military wing of Hamas in Gaza, is taking a responsibility for the barrage of 80 rockets launched from Gaza into southern Israel on Monday. A source in Israel's Defense Force (IDF) is saying that a decision has been made to launch a military offensive into Gaza. 1,500 reservists have been called up, and infantry assault units are deployed on the Gaza border. These will be backed up by intensified air strikes against the Gaza rocket launchers. Jerusalem Post and Debka and Daily Star (Lebanon)
Of the six young Jewish extremists arrested on Sunday for the murder of Palestinian teen Muhammad Abu Khdeir, three have confessed under intensive questioning, according to Israeli officials. According to one source, one of the suspects is cooperating with police, and has incriminated the others. The confessions are supported by security footage taken from a camera in a nearby building, showing the faces of two of the suspects. However, the suspects have not yet been permitted to see their lawyers.
It's thought that 15-year-old Khdeir was lynched and burnt to death in revenge for the abduction and killing on June 10 of three Israeli teens. The lynching triggered massive riots and demonstrations by Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and may also have triggered the barrage of rocket attacks from Gaza. Israeli officials moved quickly to investigate and find the murders of Khdeir in the hope of cooling the tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. On Monday evening, after the announcement of the confessions, the rioting had quieted down considerably.
It's believed that the murderers of the three Israeli teens are hiding out in the West Bank, and that the Palestinian Authority is doing little or nothing to bring them to justice. There have been no arrests in the case of the three Israeli teens. Jerusalem Post
Last week's announcement by Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko to end the unilateral cease-fire apparently caught Russia by surprise, though the greatest surprise was Saturday's decisive victory over the pro-Russian separatists in Slovyansk. The working assumption was that Poroshenko would keep extending the truce, thus allowing the conflict to "freeze" and making possible the establishment of a de-facto independent "Novorossiya" (New Russia) in eastern Ukraine.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been using such a strategy to "freeze" the foreign policy of the U.S. and Europe for several years. The strategy was to use the United Nations Security Council. By vetoing every resolution, Putin was able to cripple American and European foreign policy, but since Putin's Russia ignored the Security Council in its own actions, he essentially had a free hand on the world stage. This was particularly true in Syria, where Putin provided an unlimited supply of heavy weapons to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for use in his genocidal attacks against his own people.
Putin had expected Poroshenko to yield to international demands to keep extending the cease-fire. In fact on Thursday, just before Saturday's victory, France's president François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were strongly pressuring Poroshenko to resume the cease-fire, and they were also asking Putin to mediate between the two sides. At that point, Putin must surely have thought he was going to get everything he wanted, and so reports indicate that the loss of Slovyansk was an unpleasant shock.
So here's the summary:
That ends today's geopolitical lesson. Jamestown and Reuters (7/3)
The hashtag #GazaUnderAttack is being used to organize worldwide protests against Israel for bombing Gaza, by showing photos of the results of the bombing. A BBC investigation has revealed that many of the images are not from the latest conflict, and not even from Gaza. Some date as far back as 2009 and others are from conflicts in Syria and Iraq. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jul-14 World View -- Young Jewish males confess to lynching, as Israel and Gaza prepare for war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Jul-2014)
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Pakistan's military attack on Taliban produces little besides chaos
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The repercussions of the June 8-9 terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi Pakistan are still being felt, in the form of a continuing military operation to "clean out" the Taliban's hideouts and weapons stores from North Waziristan in Pakistan's tribal area. The airport attack seemed finally to focus the minds of Pakistan's government so that after years of Taliban bombing of schools, mosques and markets, something was finally going to be done.
Investigations that following the airport attack revealed that many of the perpetrators were Uzbeks from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a terror group with international ambitions that we're written about from time to time. The heavy IMU involvement in the Karachi airport attack indicates that the IMU is experiencing a resurgence in strength and capacity.
As of Saturday, Pakistan's military is claiming to have killed 386 militants, including dozens of Uzbeks, in the North Waziristan operation.
This has not generated much excitement among the Pakistani public, who are more concerned that the military operation is going to blow back in the form of multiple revenge terrorist attacks across the country.
Some 600,000 civilians have fled their homes in North Waziristan, many running across the border to Afghanistan, straining resources there, or else traveling north to the town of Bannu. Bannu’s limited civic services were largely unable to cater to the needs of its estimated 700,000 population, but it is now required to cope with the influx of almost 500,000 internally displaced persons as well as their more than 100,000 cattle.
There are numerous reports that thousands of militants figured out that this military operation was coming, and fled the area before it started. The figure of 386 seems small compared to the thousands who have fled.
We're even seeing chatty news stories about militants who running to barber shops to get their hair and beards trim, so that they'll look like "ordinary people," rather than murderers.
Other stories reveal that these hard core militants who demand that everyone else follow austere Sharia law, avoiding anything from the West don't practice what they preach. The extort money from poor civilians and use it to buy French and Turkish perfumes, body sprays and soaps, presumably so they'll smell good the next they rape and decapitate a pretty girl.
The military has been helpless against the Taliban for years, and there's no reason to assume that things have changed much. Furthermore, some of the Taliban groups are actually funded by Pakistani agencies, to have them at the ready for a future war with India, possibly in Kashmir. So most Pakistanis appear to be cynical about the attempt to "clean out" the Taliban, and are more worried about how the Taliban are going to get revenge than anything else. The National (UAE) and The News (Pakistan) and Arab News and AFP
Israeli officials are hoping that the swift action by police in identifying the killers of the Palestinian teen Muhammad Abu Khdeir within four days of his being lynched and burned alive will cool off the tension between Israelis and Palestinians. Six young Jewish males were arrested on Sunday on suspicion of having perpetrated the crime. Most Israelis are sickened and disgusted by the lynching, but from reports I've read I get the impression that there is sizable minority of Israelis, probably mostly in younger generations, who consider the lynching to be deserved retribution and justice. There has been a small but growing Israeli anti-Palestinian terrorist gangs for a number of years, but the murder of Khdeir is exception for its brutality. The worst case scenario for Israel is the realization of a tribal and communal war waged by hatred and revenge on both sides, spiraling out of control. AP and Jerusalem Post
Israel launched a series of air strikes on Gaza early on Monday in response to repeated rocket fire on southern Israel, and Hamas said that seven of its gunmen were killed. Israeli military authorities confirmed the strikes, saying they "responded to rocket attacks against southern Israel," targeting 9 "terror" sites and concealed rocket launchers. They said the attacks had made "direct hits."
The rocket attacks from Gaza have split the Israeli cabinet, according to reports. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is advocating a cautious approach, in order to avoid further inflaming the situation, while several ministers, led by foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, criticized Netanyahu for the tepid response to rocket fire from Gaza. Reuters and Jerusalem Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jul-14 World View -- Israeli police hold six suspects in the murder of Palestinian teen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(7-Jul-2014)
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Ukraine's Poroshenko claims a major victory against pro-Russian separatists
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The autopsy of Abu Khdeir, the Palestinian teen who was abducted, burnt and killed on Wednesday, found soot in his respiratory canal, indicating that he was burnt alive.
A youtube video that's gone viral shows Israeli police beating a 15 year old Palestinian boy on Thursday evening, and then arresting him. The boy turns out to be a US citizen, Tarek Khdeir, the cousin of the teen who was burnt alive, visiting Jerusalem from Florida to attend his cousin's funeral.
The news of these two atrocities has triggered widespread violence, not only in the West Bank, but also by Arab citizens of Israel. The police beating of 15-year-old Tarek is particularly causing international outrage and disgust.
It is widely believed, though not proven, that Abu Khdeir was lynched and burned alive by far-right Israeli settlers, in a "price tag" attack seeking revenge for the abduction and killing of three Israeli Jewish teens on June 10. The attack on his cousin, as shown in a youtube video, has added to the Palestinian fury.
Israeli fury at the Palestinians has been growing as well. Israeli online campaigns are calling for revenge against the Arabs. After the three Israeli teens were kidnapped, and before their dead bodies were discovered, one web site called for the killing of one Arab an hour until the teens were released. According to Israeli justice minister Tzipi Livni:
"It doesn’t need to end in murder to be shocking. It is enough to see what is written on the social networks – they have turned into a hotbed of dangerous and violent incitement. This is not the way of the state of Israel. We must not let the extremists win."
However, a Jerusalem Post editorial says that Israelis are fed up with dead Jews, though it doesn't suggest how the problem can be remedied:
"But something changed with the murder of these three innocent teens. It was not just the senselessness of the act; three defenseless teen boys killed for no reason other than that they were Jewish, for no other purpose but to indulge Palestinian hate. Rather, it was a feeling that this had happened one too many times. That there was a critical mass of dead Jews that had now been reached, beyond which the Israeli public and the world Jewish community is not prepared to mourn any more.That we were finally fed up. That we weren’t going to take it any more. That we weren’t going to make peace any longer with the fact that Jews are born to die. That Israel doesn’t have to make do with the sight of children’s carcasses found rotting in caves. ...
And we have every right to be fed up. No nation should have to live like this. No nation should have to die like this. Something has to be done. The status quo is unacceptable. No-one quite knows how it can be remedied, but what we do know is that the option of dead Jews is no longer acceptable. We have a right to live."
AFP and Ma'an (Bethlehem) and The National (UAE) and Jerusalem Post and YouTube
Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko is claiming a major victory on Saturday, after government troops forced pro-Russian separatists occupying the town of Slovyansk to flee from the city, and then raised the Ukrainian flag over the city council building. According to Poroshenko:
"This is not a complete victory yet, and it is not the time for fireworks displays.But the cleansing of Slovyansk from gangs who are armed to the teeth is of huge symbolic importance. This is the start of a turning point in the fight against the militants."
Slovyansk was the first city seized by the pro-Russian separatists after Russia had invaded and annexed the Crimean peninsula. At that time, in early April, the separatists hoped to repeat the Crimea experience by laying the groundwork for a Russian invasion into east Ukraine that would allow Ukraine's south and east to be annexed to Russia as well. Russia's president Vladimir Putin kept 50,000 troops on Russia's border with Ukraine for several weeks, giving the impression that Russia was about to invade. Russia also supplied the separatists with weapons, creating the impression that if they took control of as many cities as possible, then the Russian invasion would proceed. However, Russia never did invade.
But Slovyansk has remained the emotional heart of the separatist militia activities, and so its capture by Ukraine's government forces marks a significant victory.
Reports indicate that the separatists fled to Donetsk, another separatist stronghold. The separatists will undoubtedly make a major stand in Donetsk, and it remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian forces will be as successful there. CTV (Canada) and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinian violence spreads after new atrocities are revealed thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Jul-2014)
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East Ukraine fighting gets bloodier as new peace talks are scheduled
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Activists in Hawaii are demanding that the federal government return the land taken from the descendants of the original Polynesian inhabitants of Hawaii after the overthrow of the Kingdom of Hawaii in 1893. Hawaii was annexed by the United States in 1898 as a territory. Hawaii was bombed by the Japanese in 1941, and citizens played a crucial role in the Pacific war, raising national sentiments to make it a state. It became a state in 1959.
In 1993, Congress passed and President Bill Clinton signed into law what has been called the "Apology Resolution, which "apologizes to Native Hawaiians on behalf of the people of the United States for the overthrow of the Kingdom of Hawaii."
Last month, on June 18, the U.S. Department of Interior announced a series of meetings to be held at various locations in Hawaii to gauge popular sentiment about the formation of a "Native Hawaiian" government. This would be similar to the existing governments of Native American Indian groups, although that comparison is causing controversy because many Native Hawaiians do not wish to be identified as a Native American tribe.
The meetings are still ongoing, and are contentious. Some groups favor the Native Hawaiian government proposal, while activists are demanding that any decision be postponed for at least six months to allow the courts to determine the constitutionality of the U.S. annexation of Hawaii, versus whether the Kingdom of Hawaii still exists as a valid legal entity. West Hawaii Today and Dept. of Interior and Catholic Online
In the four days since Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko announced the end of the 10-day unilateral cease-fire in the conflict with pro-Russian separatists, 13 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, with no reports on the numbers of separatists or civilians that have also been killed.
Since the end of the cease-fire, Poroshenko has sent soldiers, combat tanks, cannons, fighter jets and helicopters to east Ukraine, with the objective of forcing the pro-Russian separatists to lay down their weapons or to flee across the border back to Russia.
At the same time, Poroshenko has scheduled peace talks for Saturday with representatives of the pro-Russian separatists. Whether the peace talks will be held remains to be seen. Reuters and Deutsche Welle
The Mormons (Church of Latter Day Saints) have prepared a manual to help people cope with preparations from all kinds of emergencies, from surviving an ice storm to the Avian flu to all out war. The manual is intended for active Mormons, but anyone can download and read it. In its 500 pages, it tells you about food preservation and storage, emergency kits, bug out kits, ham radios, medical kits, firearms, heating, cooking, lighting, clothing, shelter, and sanitation. As I skimmed through this manual, it occurred to me that to prepare for everything would be a full time job for weeks, and then still require lots of time to keep supplies up to date. LDS AVOW (Another Voice of Warning)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jul-14 World View -- Activists demand restoration of the Kingdom of Hawaii thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Jul-2014)
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China reaffirms plans to annex India's Arunachal Pradesh province
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Israel is facing escalating violence on two fronts -- barrages of rockets from Gaza and street violence in Jerusalem -- a day after a Palestinian teen was abducted, burnt and killed, apparently in revenge by Israeli settlers for the abduction and deaths of three Israeli teens. Both the Israeli and Palestinian populations are expressing deep deep anger, and expressing a desire for retribution and revenge.
Israel's warplanes have been targeting "Hamas terror sites" in the Gaza Strip, in response to over 20 rockets fired from Gaza into Israel since Wednesday. Palestinian officials say that 10 civilians were wounded. In Israel, two houses were damaged, but no injuries were reported.
Reports indicate that Israel's cabinet is split on whether to launch an all-out attack on Hamas in Gaza, or to assassinate Hamas leaders. At the very least, it's expected that Israel will wait at least a day to see if the violence subsides before undertaking any military operations. VOA and Washington Post and Jerusalem Post
China reaffirmed its plans to annex other countries' territories in the South China Sea by publishing a new map, as we described two days ago. The new map has raised concerns in Vietnam, the Philippines and other neighbors.
It turns out that this map also similarly reaffirms China's plans to annex India's province of Arunachal Pradesh, which China refers to as "South Tibet." The map shows Arunachal Pradesh as part of China.
Because of the threat from China, India's new prime minister Narendra Modi has announced a plan to impart "military training" to people living in areas close to the China-India border. The government plans to train border populations at the level of a paramilitary force and even give them arms training so that in times of emergency they can be utilized. According to India's Home Ministry, "[The] border population makes the eyes and ears of a government on the border. They are the biggest bulwark against any aggression by the enemy as they live there and watch every movement." The Diplomat and Times of India
China's president Xi Jinping made his first state visit to South Korea on Thursday, and joined South Korean president Park Geun-hye in criticizing North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The visit sent some terse messages from Xi to North Korea's Kim Jong-un. This is the first time that a Chinese leader has visited South Korea before visiting North Korea, and this is the first time that Xi joined with South Korean in openly and clearly criticizing North Korean policies. What effect this will have on Kim is of course unknown, but it wouldn't surprise me if he defiantly steps up his nuclear weapons program as a result. McClatchy and Xinhua
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jul-14 World View -- Israel masses troops on Gaza border and violence escalates in Jerusalem thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Jul-2014)
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China bans Ramadan fasting for Uighurs in Xinjiang province
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A 16 year old Palestinian teenager was abducted from outside his home in east Jerusalem, and forced into a car that sped off. His burned body was found hours later in a vacant lot, triggering massive violence.
The crime is believed to be a "price tag" attack by Israeli settlers seeking revenge for the abduction of three Israeli teenagers on June 10. Their dead bodies were found on Monday, triggering large protests by Israelis. Anger was growing among Israelis, and on Tuesday and Wednesday there were hours of protests by far-right Israelis shouting "Death to Arabs." The death of the Palestinian teen followed, leading to rock throwing by Palestinian protesters, met by teargas and rubber bullets from Israeli security forces.
The phrase "price tag" is frequently used by far-right Israeli settlers to denote revenge attacks against Palestinians or IDF soldiers in response to moves by the Israeli government to evacuate illegal West Bank outposts, or as retribution for attacks by Palestinians. The attacks have usually been against mosques or other property, and sometimes even Christian property, but they've occasionally crossed the line into violence against Palestinians. The abduction and murder of a Palestinian teen would be a major escalation in the price tag attacks.
Violence has been growing in the West Bank, and there have been a flurry of rockets from Gaza targeting residences in Israel. It remains to be seen whether this violence continues to spiral upward, or subsides. International Middle East Media Center (Gaza) and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel
In the face of increasing numbers of terrorist acts by Muslim Uighurs from China's northwest Xinjiang province, Chinese authorities had issued orders that Uighurs are not permitted to take part in traditional fasting during the holy month of Ramadan, which runs this year from Saturday, June 28th through the evening of Monday, July 28. Uighurs will be prevented from fasting in schools and public offices, and inspections will be made on Uighur residences.
It's hard for me, at least, to figure out how preventing Uighurs from fasting is going to help quell terrorist activities. Chinese authorities have been trying for years to restrict Muslim practices in Xinjiang, and have flooded the province with Han Chinese to force assimilation, but with little success.
The Uighur separatists have never been closely linked to the international jihadist movement. The ten million Uighurs in China speak a Turkic language and practice Sufi Islam, while al-Qaeda, for example, are mostly Arabic-speaking Sunnis. But increasing restrictions on Muslim practices in Xinjiang province appear to be catching the attention of Muslim militants outside of China. If the Uighurs become part of the worldwide Muslim militant movement, China will have only itself to blame. AP and Economist
Muslims playing at World Cup Football (Soccer) matches in Brazil, including players from Algeria, Belgium, France and Germany, are faced with the requirement of fasting all day during the June 28 to July 28 Ramadan period.
Researchers have found that for Muslim athletes during Ramadan, both aerobic and anaerobic activity diminish during fasting, and foot speed, agility, dribbling speed, and endurance all decline significantly. The annual observance of Ramadan is one of the Five Pillars of Islam, and the act of fasting is said to cleanse the soul by freeing it from harmful impurities. Deadspin.com
US officials will increase security at American airports and at overseas airports with direct flights to the United States. The exact measures have not been revealed, but could include increased random screening of passengers and tighter controls on footware, mobile phones, and computers.
The increased security follows from reports that legendary bomb-maker Ibrahim al-Asiri, who developed the shoe bomb for Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, is working on new bomb configurations that will escape existing airport detection capabilities, and is working with the jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra (Islamic Front) in Syria. Syria is of interest to al-Asiri because thousands of young men from Europe and America have been traveling to Syria to train to be terrorists and fight the Syrian regime.
So the nightmare scenario is that al-Asiri develops an undetectable bomb, and gives it to a European or American al-Nusra jihadist with a clean passport, who detonates it during a flight. AP and Irish Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jul-14 World View -- Airport security to increase as Yemen bomb makers join with Syrian jihadists thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Jul-2014)
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In face of China's increased aggression, Japan reinterprets its constitution
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Both Ukraine government forces and pro-Russian separatists in ease Ukraine appear to be digging in for a protracted conflict, as a dozen or so people were killed on Tuesday in firefights between the two groups. The government forces began an assault on the pro-Russian separatist positions after Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko called an end to a 10 day old cease-fire.
Poroshenko had declared a unilateral 7-day cease-fire on June 20, and then extended it for three more days. However, during the cease-fire, Russian-led forces continued attacking Ukrainian fixed positions, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers. At the same time, U.S. and Nato intelligence ascertained that during the unilateral cease-fire, Russia transferred additional tanks, armored personnel carriers, anti-aircraft guns and other hardware to the Russian-backed fighters.
Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is a war criminal providing supplies of heavy weapons to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to conduct his "industrial strength" torture and extermination of civilians. Putin has no ethics or morals, and in Ukraine was playing the usual game of calling for peaceful negotiations, using the time to rearm his troops. Putin and European leaders all were pressuring Poroshenko to extend the cease-fire past June 30, but he was receiving a great deal of internal pressure not to force his own armed forces to stand still as sitting ducks for Russian-supplied weapons.
On Tuesday, Poroshenko gave a nationally televised speech ending the cease-fire:
"After a June 30 evening meeting of the the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine I, as Commander-in-Chief, have decided not to pursue a unilateral cease-fire.Protection of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, safety and life of civilians requires not only defensive but also offensive operations against terrorist militants.
The Armed Forces, National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, Security Service have received appropriate instructions. ...
We will attack and liberate our land. Non-renewal of the ceasefire - is our response to terrorists, rebels, looters, and to all those who are making fun of civilians, who are paralyzing the work of regional economy, who steal the payments of salaries, pensions, stipends, who undermine and destroy railroad plumbing, who have deprived people of normal, peaceful life. ...
Everyone who stood in the way of armed resistance to lawful authority, but realizing that mistake and wants to correct it, as president, I guarantee FAILURE to justice. Condition One - voluntarily lay down their arms."
Vladimir Putin responded as follows:
"Unfortunately, President Poroshenko has taken the decision to resume military actions, and we – meaning myself and my colleagues in Europe – could not convince him that the way to reliable, firm and long-term peace can’t lie through the war.So far, Petro Poroshenko had no direct relation to orders to take military action. Now he has taken on this responsibility in full. Not only military, but also political, more importantly.
Everything that’s going on in Ukraine is of course the internal business of the Ukrainian government, but we are painfully sorry that people die, civilians."
Given his support of torture and genocide in Syria, I doubt very much that Putin is "painfully sorry" that civilians die. Also, there has been no confirmation that his "colleagues in Europe" agreed with his version of the discussions. Australian Broadcasting and Jamestown and Voice of Russia and Ukraine's government (Trans)
President Obama's recent visit to Asia was, like many of his foreign trips, supposed to reduce hostilities and encourage peaceful negotiations, especially between China and its neighbors. Instead, it seems to have encouraged China to more aggressively assert its claims to the entire South China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China is building a network of airstrips and military garrisons in the South China Sea in clear violation of international law.
China has updated its famous "nine-dash map," which depicts its sovereignty over the entire South China Sea with a new map that signals China's treatment of its territorial claims as a "core interest," meaning that any compromise in the South China Sea would be equivalent to giving away a part of mainland China. This is consistent with China's repeated statements indicating that it will annex the entire South China Sea and declare war on anyone that tries to stop them.
A web site reader recently wrote the following:
"Mr. Xenakis, you sir are very good in your craft. I may not have heard or read about most of the international incidents here in your column, but your articulation about China's strong-armed annexation of a string of islets and shoals belonging to the Philippines is a fact I can definitely affirm myself. Proof is that one of these shoals, Panatag shoal and the seas surrounding it, has been a common fishing ground of my ancestors even before WW2. Now this area is surrounded by hundreds of large Chinese fishing trawlers, sucking everything from a grain-sized shrimp to giant, 10-pounder oysters. And these illegal fishermen are escorted by a numbers of Chinese coast guard ships armed with cal. 50 machine guns and powerful water cannons, used to intimidate and deter us Filipino fish folks from our livelihood."
China's relations with its neighbors continue to deteriorate, bringing increasing criticism. Diplomatic relations with Vietnam and the Philippines have become increasingly hostile, and the two countries are forming an alliance with Japan against China. Even Singapore, which has always been very cautious about China, is now speaking out, decrying China's militaristic approach. Reuters and Lowy Interpreter
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe has won his battle to partially abandon his country's self-defense only military policy by getting his cabinet to approve a reinterpretation of Article 9 of the Constitution, the clause that permits military activity only for self-defense.
The change reinterprets the clause to allow Japan to use military action to come to the aid of an ally under military attack. According to Abe:
"We will not resort to the use of force (solely) with the aim of defending other countries. By being fully prepared to deal with any situation, Japan can foil any attempt to wage war against Japan."
According to the reinterpretation of the self-defense clause, Japan will use only the minimum force necessary, and only when the attack on the ally poses a clear danger to Japan. Japan Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jul-14 World View -- Ukraine's forces assault pro-Russian separatists as cease-fire ends thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Jul-2014)
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Pentagon announces additional 300 troop deployment to Iraq
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The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) announced that it's changing its name to just "Islamic State," is declaring the territory it controls in Syria and Iraq to be a "Caliphate," and is demanding allegiance from all Muslims worldwide to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of ISIS.
The demand that that all Muslims worldwide pledge allegiance to al-Baghdadi is laughable. He won't even get allegiance from many people in ISIS itself, such as the former officers in Saddam's Baathist army who are currently in ISIS only because they want to fight against the regime of prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.
In fact, ISIS's demand for allegiance from all Muslims worldwide is likely to infuriate jihadists in al-Qaeda linked groups, and may encourage fights among jihadist groups. In Syria, the terrorists in the Islamic Front, or Jabhat al-Nusra ("Victory Battlefront") will almost certainly not be willing to pledge allegiance.
Whether ISIS's "Islamic State" will last more than a few weeks or months remains to be seen. ISIS claims that the border between Syria and Iraq, which was set up by evil Westerners following World War I, has now been erased forever. However, that border has survived generational crisis wars in both Syria and Iraq in the 1980s, so the boundary is probably more solid than analysts expect.
None of this is to underestimate the danger from ISIS, particularly because ISIS has captured billions of dollars worth of American weapons including tanks, humvees, trucks, rockets, artillery pieces, rifles, ammunition, helicopters, and other heavy weaponry, from storehouses in Mosul that were supposedly being guarded by the Iraqi army. ISIS is already quickly making good use of those weapons not only in Iraq, but also in Syria. AP and LA Times
Officials in the Kingdom of Jordan fear that with the new weapons stash and bank account of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and with their success in Iraq and Syria, that Jordan will be their next target. Jordanian officials estimate that there are some 2,000 Jordanian jihadists who are already members of ISIS or another terrorist group. In southern Jordan, in the town of Maan, Bedouin jihadists are demonstrating in favor of ISIS. Jordan's security forces have ringed the town.
However, not all extremists in Jordan are pleased with the prospect of an invasion by ISIS. A leader of Jordan's Salafi movement is quoted as saying:
"We warned those who are aligned with the Islamic State not to go out and rally or to take any action in Jordan, as it is outside their religiously sanctioned mission and would hand a gift to Jordanian authorities trying to depict us as terrorists. ... Unfortunately, these are kids who know very little about their own religion, about jihad, and are not willing to answer or listen to anybody."
If the Bedouin jihadists combine with ISIS, it would bring an Islamist revolt to King Abdullah, and an Islamist army right to the door of Israel. The Jordanian army may be stretched too thin to cope with all the threats, and the 12,000 US soldiers and USAF F-16 fighter squadron already in Jordan may get involved. Israeli forces may get involved as well. Ammon News and Economist and Debka
On Monday, June 16, President Obama notified Congress that about 275 U.S. military personnel were deploying to Iraq to provide support and security for U.S. personnel and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. On Thursday, June 20, President Obama announced that 300 additional military advisors would be sent to Iraq. Since then, the USS Bataan, with 1000 marines, was the seventh warship to head for the Persian Gulf.
Now on Monday, the Pentagon announced that an additional 300 more troops are being sent to Iraq. According to the announcement:
"Capabilities provided include a detachment of helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, which will bolster airfield and travel route security. Similar to the U.S. security personnel who arrived in Baghdad earlier this month to provide support and security for U.S. personnel and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, they will integrate with existing U.S. embassy security teams."
According to CNN, the purpose of the new deployment is to protect the Baghdad airport, which must be protected from ISIS at all costs.
This brings to 800 the total number of US troops in Iraq, almost three times as many as in President Obama's original announcement on June 16. Department of Defense and CNN
The naming of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has always been somewhat chaotic. Some media call it ISIL, others ISIS. Some call it Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or the Levant or al-Sham. Months ago, I tried to finesse the problem by referring to "The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL)," which was kind of a cute and ironic way of covering all the bases. I finally gave that up in the main articles, because it was too clunky, though in the keywords section at the end, I still use something like "Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL."
So now we have a new name, "Islamic State," adding to the chaos. So I can finesse this in the keywords section with: "Islamic State / in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL." That should cover everything for now. What should I do in the article text? Maybe "Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS, ISIS)." Or maybe I'll just stick with ISIS for a while, and see what other people do.
There's one more name that you'll sometimes see in the press: DAESH, which it's the Arabic form of ISIL, meaning that it's the initials of the Arabic words for Islamic State in Syria and al-Sham.
Three Israeli teenagers who were abducted on June 10 were found dead on Monday, in a pit in the West Bank. They had been the subject of an extensive manhunt throughout the West Bank, during which hundreds of Palestinians, mostly members of Hamas, were arrested. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the three were "kidnapped and murdered in cold blood by animals" and promised: "Hamas will pay." Hamas is threatening retaliation for any attempt to punish Hamas. BBC and Jerusalem Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jul-14 World View -- ISIS makes laughable 'Caliphate' claim thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Jul-2014)
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