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Hong Kong police back off as demonstrations continue
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The massive protests in Hong Kong have caught the world's attention, and the world is waiting breathlessly to see how long China's government in Beijing is going to put up with being humiliated by the protests.
Hong Kong has already been forced to cancel a big, glorious fireworks celebration on Wednesday, October 1, China's National Day, and the 65th anniversary of China's communist revolution. Instead, the protests will be bigger than ever on Wednesday and Thursday, since those are two public holidays.
For Beijing, the hopeful outcome is that the protests will just die off of their own accord. That's probably why the HK police, who fired teargas and rubber bullets at protesters on Sunday evening, have backed off on Monday and allowed the protests to continue. The hopeful scenario is that the protesters will tire of protesting, and just go home.
Beijing's nightmare scenario is that the protests will grow, will continue to paralyze Hong Kong, and will continue to humiliate Beijing.
But the humiliation could be a lot worse if the rumors are true that China is considering use of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to break up the protests. The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre shocked the world, and China has spent the last 25 years doing everything it can to try to get everyone to forget it ever happened, going so far as to make it a criminal offense for a Chinese citizen on the mainland to even talk about it. A new 2015 "Hong Kong massacre," in the world of Twitter and Facebook, would make both massacres world wide news again, completely reversing Xi Jinping's strategy of presenting a more positive Chinese face.
Nonetheless, nobody serious believes that Beijing is going to grant to Hong Kong the democratic freedoms that were promised in 1997, when Britain turned HK over to China. China has no pleasant choices in this situations, and most of the world really do not expect the demonstrations to end, except in new violence. Bloomberg and Global Times (Beijing)
Ever since the Syrian conflict broke out in 2011, Syrian refugees poured across the border into Turkey. Despite international pressure, Turkey refused to consider any military action in Syria, such as providing a refugee buffer zone within Syria, and more recently refused to participate in the American-led war against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS).
But now the crisis in Kobani, Syria, on the border with Turkey, is presenting an existential threat to Turkey, and Turkish officials are now talking about both a buffer zone and joining the anti-ISIS coalition.
There have been two major reasons why Turkey has eschewed any military intervention in Syria since 2011:
But the crisis in Kobani, in Syria on the border with Turkey, has been so bad that Turkey is now forced to reassess its decisions.
Kobani has been a Kurdish stronghold in Syria. ISIS fighters have been advancing on Kobani in recent weeks, despite the fact that coalition bombers tried to stop them. But the coalition bombings have been a failure, and it's now expected that Kobani will fall to ISIS within the next couple of days.
The effect on Turkey has been nothing short of explosive. During the last two weeks, more than 160,000 Kurdish refugees from Syria have poured across the border into Turkey.
Back in 2011, when refugees started crossing into Turkey, Turkish officials estimated that they would be able to handle about 100,000 refugees, and after that there would be major problems. Well, as of last month over 1.2 million Syrian refugees have crossed into Turkey, and now 160,000 more refugees have joined them in the last few days.
In 2011, when there were only tens of thousands of refugees, then were kept in refugee camps near the border. But now these 1.5 million refugees have spread across Turkey, and are populating many cities and villages.
The effects have been mixed. Most of the refugees speak only Arabic, so there's a language problem with locals who speak only Turkish. In some villages they're helped and supported, but in other villages they're threatened, or even forced into slavery or human trafficking.
The Kobani crisis has been be a major shock to Turkish officials, who now realize that they have to take some military steps whether they like it or not. Turkey has already announced that it's reevaluating its decision to join the anti-ISIS coalition, and Turkey's foreign minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu said on Monday that "A safe zone inside Syria is essential to make life easier for the Syrian refugees." Turkish tanks have already taken up positions facing Syria. Spiegel and Journal of Turkish Weekly and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Sep-14 World View -- Kobani crisis causes Turkey to reverse policy on Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Sep-2014)
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Pro-democracy protests bring Hong Kong to a standstill
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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India's prime minister Narendra Modi received rock stars cheers from the 18,000 people, mostly Indian-Americans, in Madison Square Garden on Sunday, as well as the thousands more outside who had been unable to gain entrance.
Modi's one-hour speech drew cheers of "Modi! Modi! Modi!" and rock-star ovations. According to Modi:
"I got here selling tea... I am a very small man, a common man. I am small, so my heart lies in working for the common man. But I want to do big things for the little people."
At the heart of his speech, he was asking the wealthy and skilled persons of Indian origin to give back their talent and experience to India.
Promising that "I will make the India of your dreams... together we will serve Mother India," he highlighted his avowed (Hindutva) Hindu nationalism. Narendra Modi won a stunning and historic overwhelming victory in May of this year that surprised the world, but his Hindu nationalism has made him a controversial figure. Much of the controversy comes from his association with an incident of Hindutva violence of February 27, 2002, at a time when he was governor of Gujarat province. An attempt to molest a Muslim girl triggered several days of sectarian violence between Hindus and Muslims, killing hundreds and displacing more than 150,000 people, of which the majority were Muslims, who have since been living in refugee camps in dire humanitarian conditions. Modi himself was cleared by a court of culpability, but he's blamed by Muslims and political opponents for not taking a more active role in ending the violence.
Because of the Gujarat incident, Modi was denied entry into the United States by President Bush's administration in 2005. That ban is still in effect, but he was granted a diplomatic visa for this week's visit to the United Nations. Times of India and Time
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Saud al-Faisal says that Yemen is facing "unprecedented challenges" threatening global security, after last weekend's government coup by the Houthi rebels from northern Yemen. The Houthis are members of the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam, and it's believed that Iran has funded the Houthis and provided weapons for their takeover. Southern Yemen is the headquarters of Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and it's feared that the AQAP branch Ansar al-Sharia of Sunni jihadists are regrouping for a counterattack against the Houthis.
According to Prince Saud:
"Yemen faces accelerating and extremely dangerous conditions that require us all to look and propose the necessary solutions to confront these unprecedented challenges.[Yemen’s violence] will no doubt extend to threaten stability and security on the regional and international arena that could prove difficult to put down regardless of the resources and efforts that may be exerted."
The broad news coverage of the war against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) has made the news from Yemen almost invisible. However, Prince Saud said that all forms of terrorism must be addressed:
"We face a very dangerous situation today. Terrorism has evolved from cells to armies and from threatening specific spots to nations. The war on terror requires serious and continuous work that may go on for years, and must not stop at partial victories against limited organizations. We must continue until all terrorist organizations are destroyed, wherever they may be."
Yemen Online and Arab Times Online
China's Communist Party government in Beijing is facing a government crisis as tens of thousands of Hong Kong citizens staged pro-democracy protests on Sunday, the fourth day of protests. These were the worst protests in Hong Kong in decades, bringing central Hong Kong to a standstill. Beijing is now faced with the choice of allowing the demonstrations to go on, which would encourage protests in mainland cities, versus a bloody crackdown on the protesters.
Tensions have already escalated sharply, as Hong Kong police in riot gear unleashed volleys of tear gas on protesters early Monday morning, and first rubber bullets into the air. This is the worst police violence since Britain gave up its Hong Kong colony in 1997, returning it to Chinese sovereignty.
There are "credible reports" that China has activated the Hong Kong garrison of its People's Liberation Army (PLA), putting 6,000 soldiers on alert. This would revive harsh memories of Beijing's Tiananmen Square massacre on June 4, 1989. It's forbidden for anyone in mainland China to even talk about the 1989 massacre, but on June 4 of this year, over 100,000 people gathered in Hong Kong to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the massacre. A new Tiananmen-style massacre in Hong Kong in the next few days could have unintended consequences for Beijing. LA Times and BBC (4-Jun-2014)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Sep-14 World View -- India's rock star PM Narendra Modi draws mobs at Madison Square Garden thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Sep-2014)
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Saudis prepare for MERS and Ebola at Hajj
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Saudis are preparing for a double-dose of danger at this year's Hajj on October 2-7, when millions of Muslims from around the world arrive for their once in a lifetime pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Hajj pilgrims will be asked to wear face masks this year to reduce the risks of spreading MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus) or Ebola.
Both diseases have an incubation period of about 2-20 days, meaning that someone could be sick, spreading the disease, for several days without showing symptoms. Both diseases are spread by physical contact, with airborne contamination rare though not impossible. Health care workers are often the most vulnerable, since they become contaminated while treating infected patients.
The Saudi Ministry of Health last month banned Hajj visas for Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia — the three nations most affected by Ebola this year with at least 5,800 cases. Nigeria, a country with one of the highest concentration of Hajj pilgrims in the world, was left out of the ban, because the 20 Ebola cases have all been isolated. Pilgrims arriving at the airport near Mecca are being screened by the health ministry. Vox and The Health Site and BBC
Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday, Central African Republic president Catherine Samba-Panza asked the United Nations to modify its imposed arms embargo to permit the CAR army to have weapons, so that the army will be able help the U.N. peacekeepers.
CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era. The early stages of the new generational crisis war began last year when Muslim Seleka militias began committing atrocities. French Foreign Legion troops arrived to disarm the Seleka militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities this year, for revenge.
In December, the Security Council imposed an arms embargo on the Central African Republic and the African Union sent a peacekeeping mission, now at 6,000 troops, to attempt to quell the spreading violence. The United Nations took over the AU peacekeeping mission last week, and plans to double the force to 12,000 troops.
The violence originally began in the capital city Bangui, but has been spreading to towns and villages across the country. Thousands of people have been killed, and rapes and mutilations have been reported frequently. The conflict has uprooted or affected millions of people.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has categorized CAR's health crisis as "Grade 3" - its highest level. The country's health infrastructure has broken down, with 50-75% of the health facilities no longer able to offer basic services.
However, a generational crisis war is a force of nature, and cannot be stopped by a few peacekeeping forces than a tsunami can be stopped by a bucket brigade. Many of the villages across the vast country are far out of reach of a few thousand peacekeepers, and the people in these villages have little motivation to stop fighting, when they can get revenge killings by the other side in other villages.
My guess is that it's unlikely that the United Nations will vote to end the arms embargo, since it's pretty clear that any weapons entering CAR for any reason will, sooner or later, be used by either the Seleka or anti-balaka militias to further the slaughter. Reuters and World Health Organization (WHO)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Sep-14 World View -- Central African Republican government asks UN to lift arms embargo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Sep-2014)
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Britain votes joins countries at war against ISIS
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
The World Health Organization (WHO) plans on having to deal with only one Grade 3 humanitarian emergency every 2-4 years. Grade 3 is the highest level emergency, with "substantial public health consequences that requires a ... substantial international WHO response."
However, WHO now finds itself dealing with five Grade 3 emergencies at the same time:
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the world is also experiencing several major, high level geopolitical crises:
Unfortunately, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is not surprising. Once World War II ended, the survivors made sure that nothing so horrible would ever happen to their children and grandchildren, and they succeeded. But they're disappearing fast, and the generations that grew up after the war are like teenagers driving drunk. And also unfortunately, this trend will continue until the world, once again, is in total war. World Health Organization (WHO)
After a seven-hour debate in the House of Commons, the MPs voted overwhelmingly in favor of military action in Iraq by 524-43. All three parties supported the vote. Prime minister David Cameron did not request a vote on air strikes in Syria, because he believed that the vote would be defeated.
Here's a summary of all the countries participating in the war against ISIS:
Russia and Turkey are still talking it over. Daily Mail (London) and BBC and NBC News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO must respond to 'unprecedented scale of humanitarian emergencies' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Sep-2014)
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Russia's desperate relationship with China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Thursday, Russia's military completed a week of drills and exercises in the Far East, involving 100,000 servicemen, 1,500 tanks, 120 aircraft, 5,000 pieces of weaponry, and up to 70 ships, involving almost the entire Russian Pacific fleet.
Nominally, the purpose of Vostok 2014 is to prepare for war with the United States. And indeed, the Russia media has been doing everything possible to stir nationalistic anti-US hysteria, especially since the Ukraine war started:
In the midst of all this anti-US hysteria, it's not surprising that Vostok 2014 is being described as preparations for war with America. And yet, the assets deployed during this exercise were more consistent with preparing for a defense of the Far East, a region that America would be unlikely to invade if it wanted to invade Russia at all. The only state actor that against which such a defense is needed is China. Ria Novosti and BBC and Jamestown
Russia has become increasingly isolated in world, thanks to its support for Syria's Bashar al-Assad and because of its invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. The West has imposed sanctions on Russia which, whatever their economic importance, have had huge symbolic importance. However, Russia has been able to count on China, which is also invading and annexing other countries' territories, for support in the United Nations Security Council, and for trade deals for energy and agricultural products.
However, beneath the smiles and handshakes, China and Russia have a very troubled relationship. The two countries almost went to war in the 1960s, but the biggest of their current problems is the danger of a Chinese "invasion" of Russia's Far East.
Russia's population in the Far East has fallen dramatically in the last 20 years, and could fall significantly lower. The population of Russia east of Lake Baikal dropped from 8 million to 6 million from 1998-2002, and has continued falling since then. But the three Chinese provinces just across the river are packed with people, with a total population of 110 million people. Furthermore, the Russian region has substantial deposits of gold, oil, natural gas, coal, timber, silver, platinum, lead and zinc, as well as rich fishing grounds and vast expanses of unpopulated land.
With its desperate political dependency on China, Russia has said little recently about the Chinese threat to the Far East. But they did in the past. In 2008, Russia's then-President Dmitry Medvedev warned that, "if we don’t step up the level of activity of our work [in the Russian Far East], then in the final analysis we can lose everything."
The Chinese agree. According to one Chinese analyst, "It’s a law of physics; a vacuum has to be filled. If there are no Russian people here, there will be Chinese people."
As a result, while paying lip service to closer relations with China, Russia is also developing close relations with China's enemies, especially India and Vietnam. ( "17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam")
Thus, although the Vostok 2014 military drills in the Far East are signal to the West that it's willing to take military action when necessary, Russia fears the long-term risks of war with China in the Far East. Consequently, Moscow wants to send a strong signal that it is willing to take far-reaching steps to defend Russian territory. Jamestown and The Diplomat (2010)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Sep-14 World View -- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Sep-2014)
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Nato reports a 'significant' Russian troop pullback from Ukraine
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Nigeria's military says that the the leader of Boko Haram has been killed, and that some 270 militants have surrendered to the army and are being questioned. It is hoped that this will be a turning point that will lead to the safe recovery of the almost 300 schoolgirls that were abducted in April.
When the girls were first abducted, weeks went by with no visible actions by the government or the military to recover the girls. Some reports claimed various government and military officials supported Boko Haram.
However, in the last two or three months, the military has become much more aggressive in pursuing and fighting the Boko Haram militants. Recently, the military reported that Nigerian troops conducted coordinated air and land operations in furtherance of efforts at containing the terrorists in the North East part of the country. The fighters who surrendered have promised to cooperate with security officials by providing information on the whereabouts of the abducted girls. Guardian News (Nigeria) and Tribune (Nigeria) and Daily Post (Nigeria)
According to Nato's Lt Col Jay Janzen on Wednesday:
"There has been a significant pullback of Russian conventional forces from inside Ukraine, but many thousands are still deployed in the vicinity of the border.Some Russian troops remain inside Ukraine. It is difficult to determine the number, as pro-Russian separatists control several border crossings and troops are routinely moving back and forth across the border. Further, Russian special forces are operating in Ukraine, and they are difficult to detect."
It's been estimated that 20,000-40,000 Russian troops are near the border with Ukraine, and they could be sent in for a re-invasion at any time.
It used to be that President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry would respond to obvious lies by Russia's president Vladimir Putin and defense minister Sergei Lavrov by thanking them for being so helpful and cooperative. It made me want to vomit. However, that strategy has been abandoned. Obama was harshly critical of Russia in his speech on Wednesday to the United Nations General Assembly:
"Recently, Russia’s actions in Ukraine challenge this post-war order. Here are the facts. After the people of Ukraine mobilized popular protests and calls for reform, their corrupt president fled. Against the will of the government in Kyiv, Crimea was annexed. Russia poured arms into eastern Ukraine, fueling violent separatists and a conflict that has killed thousands. When a civilian airliner was shot down from areas that these proxies controlled, they refused to allow access to the crash for days. When Ukraine started to reassert control over its territory, Russia gave up the pretense of merely supporting the separatists, and moved troops across the border.This is a vision of the world in which might makes right -- a world in which one nation’s borders can be redrawn by another, and civilized people are not allowed to recover the remains of their loved ones because of the truth that might be revealed. America stands for something different. We believe that right makes might -- that bigger nations should not be able to bully smaller ones, and that people should be able to choose their own future. And these are simple truths, but they must be defended."
Russia has always claimed that any Russian soldiers in Ukraine were purely "voluntary." This has always been a laughable claim, as if thousands of Russian citizens would leave their wives and families, travel to Ukraine at their own expense, and risk getting killed. It's also contradicted by reports that Russian soldiers were ordered into Ukraine.
However, I may have found a way that the Russian claim might contain a grain of truth. Here's a paragraph from an article from earlier this month:
"About 190,000 members of the 760,000-strong Russian army are "volunteers," serving upon their own volition. They earn 18,000 rubles ($500) per month, a huge sum by Russian standards. They can be ordered into combat in Ukraine or anywhere else at any time, and there isn't even a contractual requirement that relatives be notified if volunteers are killed in the line of duty."
In other words, Russia's army has 570,000 conscripts and 190,000 volunteers, for a total of 760,000 soldiers. So perhaps the Russian soldiers that were ordered into Ukraine were from the volunteer force.
The United States has an all-volunteer army, so according to the Russian reasoning, there are no American soldiers in Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria. Why? Because they're all "volunteers."
By the way, I don't know if my readers can wrap their head around this concept, but I thought Obama's speech was pretty good. He sounded an awful lot like President George W Bush. (See "12-Sep-14 World View -- President George W. Obama pledges to 'degrade, destroy' ISIS"). The speech would have been better if he'd mentioned the threat from China. BBC and White House and Moscow Times (9/1)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Sep-14 World View -- Nigeria's army sees a turning point as Boko Haram fighters surrender thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Sep-2014)
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CDC warns of possibly 1.4 million Ebola infections in West Africa
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Iran-backed Shia Houthis celebrated with fireworks on Monday after signing a UN-brokered "peace agreement" that required the government to resign, replacing it with one that gives power to the Houthis. It's believed that they will follow the same path as Hezbollah in Lebanon -- using a power-sharing agreement combined with military power with weapons and money supplied by Iran to take majority control of Yemen's government.
Member of Iran parliament Ali Reza Zakani, who is close to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, bragged that Sanaa is fourth Arab capital in Iran's grasp, joining "the three Arab capitals who are already a subsidiary of the Iranian Islamic revolution," and part of "the greater jihad." He predicted that 14 out of 20 counties in Yemen would soon be under Houthi control. The other Arab capitals referenced by Zakani are Beirut Lebanon, Baghdad Iraq, and Damascus Syria.
Hezbollah gives Iran a presence in the Mediterranean, Iran itself has control of the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, and control of Yemen gives Iran a stranglehold on the entrance to the Red Sea.
Analysts do not believe that the Houthi control of Sanaa is permanent. Sunni ethnic groups are expected to regroup and oppose the Houthis militarily. BBC and Al Arabiya and AlWeeam (Trans) and Daily Star (Beirut)
The barrage of airstrikes announced by President Barack Obama are directed primarily against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) in Syria, without the permission of the Syrian regime, and with opposition by Russia. Previous airstrikes were directed at ISIS in Iraq, with permission of Iraq's government.
American warplanes bombing ISIS in Syria were joined by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). State news agencies of these four countries mentioned their participation, though usually only briefly and reluctantly.
Qatar was named by the US administration as the fifth participating Arab country, but apparently Qatar did not actually participate in the bombing. Qatar's official state news agency did not mention the strikes at all, while Qatar-based al-Jazeera prominently mentioned the airstrikes, and the other Arab countries' participation, but failed to mention Qatar's role. It's also being widely noted that Turkey is not participating, and is not even permitting its air bases to be used.
As readers are aware, I've been writing frequently about of the continuing realignment of the entire Mideast following the Gaza war and the rise of ISIS. In this realignment, Turkey is aligned with Qatar and Hamas, versus Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinian Authority. Turkey also has maintained cordial relations with ISIS, because ISIS held 49 Turkish diplomats as hostages until recently, and because ISIS is fighting Syria's Bashar al-Assad, Turkey's bitter enemy.
Radical Salafist groups in the Mideast are also supporters of ISIS, and Qatar is suspected of having a connection.
I have not heard any analyst say that ISIS can be defeated or even "managed" without "boots on the ground." Events in the Mideast are moving very quickly, and it's clear that many realignments have yet to occur, as the Mideast heads for a full-scale regional war, as predicted by Generational Dynamics. Daily Star (Beirut) and CNN
The Centers for Disease Control on Tuesday warned of a worst-case scenario that the number of people in Sierra Leone and Liberia in West Africa infected with the Ebola virus could exceed 1.4 million by mid-January. However, the CDC also wishfully added that the number of cases could peak below that, if efforts to control the outbreak are ramped up.
These figures are consistent with the ones that I posted recently in "18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?" One thing that the CDC did not mention is that if there are 1.4 million infections by mid-January, then the number of infections will continue to grow exponentially beyond that point, until almost all of the 10 million people in these two countries have become infected. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Sep-14 World View -- Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Sep-2014)
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Yazidis, Mosul Christians hold Obama responsible for ISIS
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Thousands of college students in Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement, joined by hundreds of faculty members, boycotted classes Monday to protest Beijing's reneging on the 1997 agreement under which Hong Kong as a British colony reverted to Chinese control. The deal was known as "one country, two systems," meaning that Beijing would pursue Communism and Socialism, while Hong Kong would retain its democracy, its capitalist system, and its way of life. Hong Kong was promised free elections, but Beijing is pre-determining the 2017 election by allowing only three Beijing-approved candidates to run for office.
Separately, Beijing has also been clamping down on the use of the Cantonese version of the Chinese language, the native dialect of 50 million Chinese people. In Guangdong province in southern China, Beijing authorities are forbidding Cantonese in any television shows, requiring the Mandarin (Putonghua) version favored by Beijing. Hong Kong also speaks Cantonese, and it's feared that Beijing will impose similar requirements there. Cantonese and Mandarin are written using the same characters, but are spoken differently.
A recent poll of Cantonese speaker in Hong Kong found that 20% of them would like to leave Hong Kong and emigrate to other countries. Huge waves of emigration previously occurred after the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, and again when Hong Kong sovereignty transferred from Britain to China in 1997.
Activists in Macau, a former Portuguese colony with similar administrative status to Hong Kong, are planning to hold their own pro-democracy referendum, and are watching the Hong Kong demonstrations closely.
Taiwan is also closely watching the demonstrations in Hong Kong, especially the members of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Taiwan universities are scheduling lectures and other forms of support for the pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong. Hong Kong and Taiwan were closely linked after World War II, when Nationalists fighting Mao Zedong's Communist Revolution used Hong Kong as a transit point to escape to Formosa (Taiwan). AP and AFP and Deutsche-Welle and AFP
Turkey has been home to over 1.3 million Syrian refugees since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, with 130,000 new refugees flooding in since Friday. The tsunami of refugees in the last few days has been from border towns and cities where militias from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) are going house to house, killing people, abducting girls, and enslaving others. Turkish officials say that they are prepared for a flood of additional refugees in the next few days. The fear is that ISIS will send suicide bombers across the border, along with the refugees. Sabah (Ankara) and Zaman (Istanbul)
According to MEMRI, many Arab writers blame president Barack Obama for the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). Here is one column MEMRI quotes:
"The terrified Yazidi woman on Mount Sinjar counted her family members. The tally broke her heart. Those who did not arrive with her never would. She fled quickly and convinced herself that they had too. They never arrived. Her two sons and her daughter. Left to the mercy of ISIS. And this 'merciful' organization beheads the infidels, crucifies them, or buries them alive. Left to the mercy of the caliph. He likes his state clean and pure and will not tolerate toxic weeds in his garden."Who will the terrified Yazidi woman turn to? She won't call on [Arab League Secretary-General] Nabil Al-'Arabi, because his company [the Arab League] is known to be bankrupt. She won't call on [UN Secretary-General] Ban Ki-moon, because he has nothing [to offer her] but his own tears. She won't call on the Iraqi army, since it has already fallen to ISIS and given it the best of its weapons as a gift. She won't call on the Peshmerga, since their weapons are too meager for this campaign. There is but one element [she can turn to]. She spread her arms and said: 'Where is America? Where is Obama?' ...
The Yazidi woman is entitled to treat Barack Obama as a criminal. He quickly fled with his soldiers, leaving Iraq in the hands of the spiteful lovers of anonymous corpses and assassinations. He pretended to forget that his own country invaded Iraq, and that one of its witless administrators ordered to dismantle the Iraqi army. He ignored his moral responsibility. He spared American blood, leaving us [to drown] in lakes of blood."
Yesterday, I wrote that there's a historical precedent for the climate change debate, that predicts we'll all be underwater in a few decades. That historical precedent was the horse manure debate of over a century ago, that predicted that we'd all be under horse manure within a few decades.
A couple of web site readers have requested further information. Here's a summary:
During my lifetime, I've seen any number of hysterical environment disaster predictions. My favorite was the prediction in 1970 by far left-wing Ramparts Magazine that predicted that the oceans were becoming so polluted that by 1980 the world's oceans would be covered by a layer of algae. It didn't happen.
Like the horse manure crisis, the climate change crisis will be solved by new technologies that today are barely foreseen. These will include things like intelligent computers that will perform cleanup tasks that humans can't perform and microbiology technologies that will convert excess carbon dioxide back to harmless materials. Thousands of research labs around the world are motivated to identify such technologies, because any company finding one will patent it and make billions of dollars. No further motivation is needed. From Horse Power to Horsepower and The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 and Great Moments in Failed Predictions
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Sep-14 World View -- Turkey braces for expected flood of hundreds of thousands more refugees thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Sep-2014)
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New climate change circus in progress
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Yemen's Houthi (Ansarullah) anti-government militias took control of many government buildings in Sanaa, Yemen's capital city, on Sunday, and then agreed to a United Nations sponsored peace agreement to end the fighting. However, some reports indicate that the fighting is continuing as before.
The Houthi militias are believed to be receiving weapons and training from Iran. Yemen is also the base of the Sunni jihadist al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and southern Yemen is attempting to secede from Yemen.
The concern is that sectarian (Shia versus Sunni) violence will accelerate in Yemen, affecting the entire region. Gulf News and The National (UAE)
It's been a month since the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas ended with a ceasefire agreement, and part of the agreement was that peace talks would start in a month on the core issues. So indirect talks between Israel and Hamas are going to begin in Cairo on Tuesday. The talks are called "indirect" because Israel and Hamas don't actually talk to each other. They sit in separate rooms, and Egyptian mediators run back and forth between the rooms carrying messages.
Israel's demands are:
Hamas's demands are:
It seems unlikely that any of these demands will be granted. On the other hand, it should take about six months for Hamas to reconstruct its tunnels and restock its rockets, so we might expect a new Gaza war in six months. Gulf News and Jerusalem Post
Every couple of years, a new farcical climate change takes place, with pompous politicians saying that climate change is the biggest danger threatening mankind for now and forever.
On Sunday, the "People's Climate March" took place in New York City. Organizers claimed that it also took place in 2,000 locations worldwide, and that 310,000 people joined the march in New York.
I've written about these circuses many times. Let's summarize the climate change situation:
"The solution to the nightmare of runaway climate change is crystal clear, and beautiful. We need to shift our societies and economies off dirty energy and on to 100% clean, sustainable energy, within a generation.
You'd think CNN would be embarrassed to publish something so utterly moronic, but few media sites or politicians are embarrassed by stupidity these days.
On Tuesday, the UN will host a climate summit in New York with 125 heads of state and government - the first such gathering since the unsuccessful climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, that ended in total farce. ( "Climate change conference winds down with search for villains" The new conference will end the same way, with all the politicians running to cover their butts and blame other people. BBC and CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Sep-14 World View -- Israeli-Hamas peace talks to resume in Cairo on Tuesday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Sep-2014)
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India launches 'Project Mausam' to counter China's 'Maritime Silk Road'
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In a new sign of the continuing realignment of the entire Mideast following the Gaza war and the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS), Turkey opened the border on Saturday to 66,000 Kurdish refugees fleeing from ISIS. Thousands more are expected to enter Turkey on Sunday.
On the same day, a military operation by Turkey recovered and freed 49 hostages from Turkey's diplomatic corp. The hostages had been captured by ISIS when the latter overran the city of Mosul in June.
Turkey has announced that it will not join the US-led "coalition" to be fighting ISIS, and gave as one of the reasons that it didn't want to risk the lives of its hostages. Now that the hostages have been freed, it's still not expected that Turkey will join the "coalition," since Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a bitter enemy of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Turkey will not even permit American warplanes fighting ISIS to take off from its Incirlik air base, although Turkey will allow humanitarian and logistical operations from there.
Opening the border to 66,000 Kurdish refugees reflects the realignments that are going on in the Mideast. Until recently, Turks and Kurds fought a civil war that killed 40,000 people. The fact that Turkey is now accepting tens of thousands of Kurdish refugees is a sign of how allegiances are shifting in this region. Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and Zaman (Ankara) and BBC
When China's president Xi Jinping took office last year, he gave a number of speeches about "China's Dream," in which he called for China to shed its past as a secondary player, and become the world's top military and economic power. He visited Chinese military bases and told the troops to be ready for war at any time. He vowed that China will take every step necessary to gain control of the East China Sea and South China Sea regions, including areas that have been owned by other countries for centuries.
The "Silk Road" was a collection of trade routes that connected Europe and China in the Middle Ages, allowing China's silk to be traded for European goods. As part of that plan to implement "China's Dream," Xi proposed a new "Maritime Silk Road" (MSR) across Southeast Asia, shortly after he took office. The Chinese describe it in economic terms, as an initiative to further deepen China's reciprocal cooperation with neighboring countries, and promote their common development and prosperity, but it's also a military initiative to gain bases and influence from China, across the Indian Ocean, all the way to Africa.
Not to be outdone, India is proposing a competitive vision to the MSR, called "Project Mausam," described as "a transnational program is aimed at restoring India's ancient maritime routes and cultural links with republics in the region." I admit I'm having a bit of difficulty understanding this, so I'll just quote someone else's narrative:
"The project is considered [Indian Prime Minister Narendra] Modi's government’s most significant foreign policy initiative designed to counter China. It is inspired by India’s historical role as the focal point for trade in the Indian Ocean. In pre-modern times, sailors used seasonal monsoons (mausam, means weather or season in many South Asian languages) to swiftly journey across the Indian Ocean. This trip usually involved starting from one of the edges of the ocean, around today’s Indonesia or east Africa, sailing to India, stopping, and allowing another crew to wait for another monsoon to sail to the other edge of the Indian Ocean, as different monsoon winds blew in different directions at different times of the year. Crews would frequently winter for months in India or at one of the edges of the ocean waiting for another season of monsoons. This allowed for significant cultural exchanges as diverse people from different places would often spend months at a time living in foreign countries (Islam is said to have entered Indonesia in this manner).Project Mausam would allow India to reestablish its ties with its ancient trade partners and re-establish an “Indian Ocean world” along the littoral of the Indian Ocean. This world would stretch from east Africa, along the Arabian Peninsula, past southern Iran to the major countries of South Asia and thence to Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia."
Russia has once again sent a massive convoy of hundreds of large, covered trucks across the border into Ukraine's sovereign territory, without permission and without any inspection. This time, the Russians didn't even announce the convoy in advance, but simply sent the trucks through the border. As in the previous convoys, there's no way to tell whether the trucks contain "humanitarian aid," as the Russians claim, or whether they contain weapons to support the Russian soldiers stationed in Ukraine. Deutsche-Welle and Ria Novosti
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Sep-14 World View -- Turkey admits 66,000 refugee Kurds from Syria as Mideast realignment continues thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Sep-2014)
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China's Alibaba IPO causes lightheaded investors to pop champagne corks
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Streets in Freetown, the capital city of Sierra Leone, were deserted on Friday, the first day of a 3-day lockdown of the entire country. People were told in advance to stock up on food, so that they wouldn't have to leave their homes for 3 days. Muslims were told to pray on Friday, and Christians were told to pray on Sunday.
The plans are that nearly 30,000 health workers, volunteers and teachers aim to visit every household in the country to educate people about the disease and isolate the sick. There are 6 million people in the country, so that's 200 people per volunteer. Each volunteer is given a kit containing soap, stickers and flyers before leaving.
Sierra Leone is one of the poorest countries in the world, and the economy gets worse every day because of the Ebola crisis. Many families could not stock up on three days of food, and some people will starve. Investors are concerned that the lockdown will affect Sierra Leone's iron ore production.
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) is condemning the plan, saying that it will no effect on the spread of Ebola.
Earlier this week, one 8-person team educating people on Ebola risks in a remote part of southeastern Guinea were killed and their bodies dumped in a village latrine. CNN and Reuters
Violence agreed on Friday in Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, between Houthi militias from north of Sanaa versus Yemen's army backed by pro-government ethnic groups. Houthis have been camped out in Sanaa since mid-August, paralyzing government offices and businesses. The Houthis have been demanding a restoration of fuel subsidies that were cut in July, increasing gasoline prices by 60% or more. Violence has been increasing, and by Friday the airport was shut down, phone lines and internet services were down, and residents were forced to stay indoors.
Although the Yemen conflict is largely fought between ethnic groups, each side has powerful political supporters.
The Houthis are in the Zaidi branch of the Shia Muslim religion, and are in control of large swathes of territory in northern Yemen, along the border with Saudi Arabia. It's widely believed that Iran has been training and supplying arms to the Houthis, with a view to destabilizing both Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
The most important militias opposed to the Houthis are those who are in the Sunni political group al-Islah, which is Yemen's branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Much of the fighting in and around Sanaa involves al-Islah-allied militias, rather than Yemen's military.
However, more intriguing are the reports that the Houthis are being supported by the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted by his vice president, and now the current president, Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi. Saleh is also a member of the Zaidi sect, while Hadi is a Sunni Muslim. Saleh was in power from 1992 until his ouster in 2012, and he and Hadi had a good relationship. But Saleh is extremely bitter about being overthrown and it's suspected that he wants to destabilize Hadi's government, and have him replaced by his son, Ahmed Ali Saleh. VOA and Middle East Eye and Daily Star (Beirut)
Here's how one news story began:
"Alibaba debuted as a publicly traded company Friday and swiftly climbed more than 40 percent in a mammoth IPO that offered eager investors seemingly unlimited potential for growth and a way to tap into the burgeoning Chinese middle class.The sharp demand for shares sent the market value of the e-commerce giant soaring well beyond that of Amazon, eBay and even Facebook. The initial public offering was on track to be the world's largest, with the possibility of raising as much as $25 billion.
Jubilant CEO Jack Ma stood on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as eight Alibaba customers, including an American cherry farmer and a Chinese Olympian, rang the opening bell."
We've now completely returned to the euphoric hysteria that preceded the 2007-2008 financial crisis. At that time, investors were going nuts over one IPO after another, one leveraged buyout after another. Each one was a sure thing, just like Alibaba, and I'm told that there are a lot more IPOs coming in the next few months.
There aren't any "real people" investing in Alibaba. The investors are almost all hedge funds and financial institutions. A hedge fund can borrow $10 million and use it to buy Alibaba stock, since it's "sure" to go up. That's how a combination debt bubble and stock market bubble are created. Different hedge funds borrow money and use it to buy stocks, pushing up the prices of the stocks, and in essence creating money backed by a chain of debt. The problem arises when one hedge fund loses money and can't repay its debts, causing a chain reaction that results in a financial crisis.
Stock market valuations are going farther and farther into the ozone bubble layers. The last time I mentioned the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio, just a couple of weeks ago, it was at 18.97, which is already astronomically high by historical standards. But now, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations) on Friday (September 19) has shot up to 19.36.
Do I have to remind you, Dear Reader, that it wasn't very long ago, in 1982, when the S&P 500 P/E ratio was below 6. It falls to that level every 30 years or so, and it's overdue to do so again. This would push the Dow Jones Industrial Average down to the 3000 level.
By the way, those hedge funds didn't really invest in the Alibaba company on Friday. Alibaba is described as "China's e-commerce powerhouse," bigger than eBay and Facebook combined. But the Chinese do not permit foreigners to own Chinese internet stocks. So they set up some kind of holding company in the Cayman Islands, with some kind of relationship to Alibaba. Investors who bought stock on Friday actually bought shares in that holding company. Even large investors have absolutely no say in how Alibaba is run, and China's regulators can pull the plug at any time. But apparently today's investors are so imbued with sheer stupidity that they bought the stock anyway, and pushed its opening price of $60 per share all the way up to $93 per share, within just a few hours. AP and Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Sep-14 World View -- Yemen violence may be proxy between Iran and Muslim Brotherhood thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(20-Sep-2014)
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Thailand's PM suggests that only ugly people are safe in bikinis
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Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who heads the military junta that overthrew Thailand's elected government in a coup in May, is apologizing for suggesting that only ugly people should wear bikinis.
The bodies of two British tourists, a young, good-looking male and female, were found bludgeoned on one of Thailand's scenic beaches. Prayuth said, "Can they be safe in bikinis, unless they are not beautiful?"
In response to the subsequent uproar, Prayuth said, I apologize that I have spoken too harshly ... I didn’t mean to criticize or look down on anyone. Today I can guarantee that Thailand is still safe ... I wanted to warn [the tourists] to be careful. I’m sorry that it hurt people." AP
BBC reporters in southern Russia were attacked by Russian security thugs after interviewing a woman whose brother, a professional Russian soldier, had been killed in action in Ukraine. The Russian thugs seriously wounded the cameraman and smashed his camera. The others were locked up while their equipment was damaged and all their reports erased. However, the reporters had already uploaded much of the material, including the interview with the dead soldier's sister before the Russian thugs attacked, so the BBC was able to air the interview after all.
In the interview, as aired on the BBC, the woman said her brother was a professional soldier who had been ordered into Ukraine, and was probably killed there. In her last phone contact with her brother, he said that he'd been ordered to go to southwest Ukraine, which presumably means that Russia is in the midst of a military buildup to attack Odessa and then annex southern Ukraine, as well as Moldova's Transnistria province.
Nato and several news organizations have shown the presence of large numbers of Russian troops in Ukraine. Russia simply claims that everyone else is lying, uses violence by thugs to intimidate reporters who collect such evidence, and uses an army of paid trolls to attack anyone on the internet who reports Russian activities.
Russia invaded Crimea, Ukraine's southern peninsula, earlier this year, and annexed it. They lied about the presence of Russian troops until the invasion and the annexation were over, and then acknowledged that they had been lying, even awarding medals to the Russian soldiers who conducted the invasion.
On Thursday, Ukraine's government reported that Russia's troops in Crimea have been massing on the Crimean border. If this story is true, and if the Russian woman's story is true that her dead brother had been ordered to southwest Ukraine, it would indicate that a new Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent, with plans to annex southern Ukraine. BBC and AFP and BBC and Pravda (Moscow)
Dozens of Russian soldiers from Chechnya are fighting the Ukrainian army in Ukraine. These Chechens have produced a large number of videos that appear on the internet showing the fighting and dying in Ukraine. Other videos show Russian officers threatening Chechens who resist being sent to Ukraine. The influx of Chechens includes entire military units normally based in Chechnya, including two Motorized Rifle Brigades. The brigades are manned exclusively by contract soldiers, 10–20 percent of which are Chechens. Jamestown and Bloomberg
China's president Xi Jinping and India's prime minister Narendra Modi acted like friendly old pals in their meeting in New Delhi, and promised that the two countries would help each other with new economic initiatives. China pledged to invest $20 billion in a five year plan to reduce the trade imbalance that currently favors China by a large amount.
Xi promised to combine the "world's factory" with the "world's back office" in a Wednesday editorial that he wrote for The Hindu:
"As emerging markets, each with its own strengths, we need to become closer development partners who draw upon each other’s strengths and work together for common development. With rich experience in infrastructure building and manufacturing, China is ready to contribute to India’s development in these areas. India is advanced in IT and pharmaceutical industries, and Indian companies are welcome to seek business opportunities in the Chinese market. The combination of the “world’s factory” and the “world’s back office” will produce the most competitive production base and the most attractive consumer market."
Xi also appreciatively quoted Modi's characterization that China and India are "two bodies, one spirit."
However, Modi also said that the boundary issues between China and India need to be resolved quickly:
"We need to resolve our boundary issue soon. A clarification on the LAC (Line of Actual Control) is very important. It has been pending for years, it is time to start it again.
Indeed, despite all the friendly talk between the two leaders, Chinese and Indian forces were confronting each other in the bitterly contested Kashmir/Jammu region. 600 soldiers crossed China's border into India in the early hours of Thursday morning, supported by helicopters. They were building a road that would be five km deep into Indian territory. There was no live fire between the two sides. IBNLive (India) and Times of India and The Hindu
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Sep-14 World View -- BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(19-Sep-2014)
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John Kerry's testimony before the Senate: 1971 and Today
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Here's a question I received from a web site reader, commenting on yesterday's World View article, in which I concluded on the subject of Ebola with, "It seems likely that the pandemic will have to run its course, meaning that almost all people in Liberia will sooner or later become sick with the disease, and either survive or not":
"I find it difficult to square your comments about a generalized and all-encompassing infection rate with the news comments about the number of people who are reported infected. Your suggestion that "all" will get sick and survive or die is an Apocalypse unknown in modern times. If any western nation were to lose 25% of its population there would be a complete collapse of the nation (in my opinion). Now you suggest that the death rate would approach 50%. Should the infection spread beyond the sub-sahara region into North Africa with the Hajj approaching the infection would go worldwide. This would be a game changer and the perfect excuse for global war (in all of its forms) as countries would be "forced" to close their borders. Smoot-Hawley did not tickle the economies of the world as this would.As the press is reporting the illness is striking people by the thousands and while it could strike thousands more this does not approach the millions to be infected by your reasoning. I am not sure how you develop the thought of everyone contracting the disease. Please write about how your develop your reasoning."
In the past few weeks and months, I've listened and read probably close to 1000 news reports and analyses on what's happening in Liberia, and I take note of what's said, and what's not said.
What's said over and over is:
What's not said is: "This will be brought under control soon."
So I reached the conclusion that I reached.
Say there are currently 1000 cases in Liberia. Ebola is expanding exponentially, with the number of cases in Liberia doubling every two weeks or so. Since 2**10=1024, then the number of cases after ten iterations (20 weeks) will be 1024*1000 which is over a million.
You suggest that I'm saying that it will be a worldwide epidemic, spread by the Hajj. I didn't say anything like that, and the Saudis are taking every possible precaution, and have the expertise and infrastructure to do so.
Factors that are specific to Liberia are lack of health care infrastructure, superstitions, illiteracy and lack of education, anti-Western hostility, and funeral rites. These are the main factors that caused the initial spread, and now there's an extremely fast exponential rate of growth caused by three more factors: Lack of enough Ebola clinics, deaths of many health workers, and isolation of Liberia from the rest of the world -- meaning that new Ebola patients are literally receiving no care whatsoever.
Things may change, but right now I don't see any of these factors in play in the U.S. or Europe or any developed nation. However, those factors may still apply in many underdeveloped places in the world, particularly megacities and slums, and so a global Ebola epidemic in specific isolated places may yet occur. Also, a war in any location can destroy the health care infrastructure, and allow a pandemic to spread.
Another web site reader referred me to the following very interesting article on the history of pandemics: How plagues really work
Here's what John Kerry said, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee in 1971:
"I would like to talk, representing all those veterans, and say that several months ago in Detroit, we had an investigation at which over 150 honorably discharged and many very highly decorated veterans testified to war crimes committed in Southeast Asia, not isolated incidents but crimes committed on a day-to-day basis with the full awareness of officers at all levels of command....They told the stories at times they had personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam in addition to the normal ravage of war, and the normal and very particular ravaging which is done by the applied bombing power of this country."
Now, here's what he said on Wednesday, testifying before the same committee:
"Because ISIL is killing and raping and mutilating women. And they believe women shouldn't have an education. They sell off girls to be sex slaves to jihadists. There is no negotiation with ISIL. There is nothing to negotiate. And they’re not offering anyone healthcare of any kind. They're not offering education of any kind.For a whole philosophy or idea or cult, or whatever you want to call it, that frankly comes out of the stone age. They’re cold-blooded killers marauding across the Middle East making a mockery of a peaceful religion."
When you compare the two statements, the US Army comes out a lot worse than ISIL in John Kerry's view.
John Kerry has expressed nothing but contempt for the US Army his entire life. He reaffirmed his 1971 testimony when he appeared on the Imus show in 2006, and in that time frame he said that US soldiers are stupid.
For John Kerry to be U.S. Secretary of State is a travesty and an insult to all Americans. The only thing that qualifies him for this or any government job is that his boss shares his attitudes. Richmond.edu
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(18-Sep-2014)
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U.S. to send 3,000 troops to Liberia to fight Ebola
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Talks for sale of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, jointly developed by India and Russia, to Vietnam are at an "advanced stage." Vietnam has already been deemed a "friendly country" by Russia and India, and acquisition of the BrahMos would be a significant strategic coup for Vietnam, to bolster its credible defense against China. Vietnam is ill-equipped to prevent China from annexing territories belonging to Vietnam and other countries bordering the South China Sea, and the supersonic missiles would allow Vietnam to threaten any naval assets that China may choose to use in the future against Vietnamese interests.
The BrahMos, developed jointly in a strategic partnership between Indian DRDO (Defense Research and Development Organization) and Russian NPO Mashinostroyeniya, is a stealth cruise missile with a range of 290 km and travels at a speed of Mach 2.8 to 3. Its developer claims that the missile cannot be intercepted for the next 20 years.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these alliances further support the ten-year-old prediction, based on generational analysis of the countries involved, that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war would pit China plus Pakistan plus the Sunni Muslim countries versus the U.S. plus India plus Russia plus Iran. In Asia, the alliance between India, Russia and Vietnam is growing, while in the Mideast, we see a realignment in progress that's allying the U.S. with Iran and Russia, versus the Sunni-jihadist Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). These realignments are continuing. Diplomat and BrahMos press release
About 500 migrants, 400 adults and 100 children, traveling from Egypt to Malta drowned, after the boat carrying them collided with another boat. The migrants' boat may have been rammed and deliberately sunk by human traffickers, who were demanding that they give up their boat in exchange for a smaller boat. According to survivors, the traffickers were laughing after ramming and sinking the boat.
The number of migrants traveling from Africa to Europe has been surging exponentially this year, and this would be the biggest drowning incident so far. Last October there were two tragic shipwrecks last October in which more than 400 Eritrean, Somali and Syrian migrants drowned. ( "16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in")
The deaths of 400 migrants caused a scandal throughout Europe, and Italy began spending $13 million dollars per month on a program called "Mare Nostrum" (Our Sea) to rescue drowning migrants trying to reach Sicily. Many people believe that the exponential surge in migrants is an unintended consequence of the Mare Nostrum program, since a migrant can feel confident that he'll reach Europe one way or another.
Italy has been complaining bitterly that Europe should be paying a lot more of the $13 million monthly tab. The Europeans have agreed to a small expansion of its Frontex border agency into a "Frontex Plus" program, but for the most part, the Europeans are happy to sit back and just let Italy bear the entire cost. CNN and Guardian (London)
Most people are aware of the close relationship that the United States has had with the country of Liberia, resulting from the fact that it was founded by freed American slaves in the early 1800s. Since that time, America has provided aid and support to the country when necessary, and Liberia provided valuable resources, particularly rubber, in support of America's war effort in World War II.
With the Ebola virus spreading exponentially throughout Liberia, Liberia is facing an existential crisis, and so it's not surprising that the U.S. is going to help. Under the U.S. plan, 3,000 U.S. troops will be sent to a new command center in Liberia's capital, Monrovia, to help with the transportation of supplies and other personnel. U.S. forces will construct 17 health care facilities of 100 beds each to isolate and treat victims. The U.S. mission will also set up a facility to train 500 health care workers per week.
The Ebola crisis threatens to wipe out ten years of rebuilding Liberia following the bloody civil war that ended in 2003. Liberia's society is split between indigenous tribes -- the people who lived there before the freed slaves arrived -- and the freed slaves who settled there. Although making up only about 5% of the population, the freed slaves and their descendants, known as "Americo-Liberians," were a dominant minority and ruled Liberia following independence, until the civil war began in the 1960s. The society that sent freed slaves to Liberia in the 1800s selected the ones with the strongest Protestant Christian beliefs, and the ruling Americo-Liberian minority considered themselves and their religion to be superior to the religions of the indigenous tribes, whether animist or Muslim. Ironically, the freed slaves themselves became slavemasters to the indigenous people, continuing into the 1900s. The war ended, but tensions between the settlers and the tribes continue. The civil war that ended in 2003 left the country destitute, and now it's facing destitution again from Ebola.
Some people are criticizing the American action to be too little, too late. Based on the reports that have been coming out of Liberia in the last few months, it's quite possible that even 3,000 American troops cannot stop the rapid spread of the disease. It seems likely that the pandemic will have to run its course, meaning that almost all people in Liberia will sooner or later become sick for the disease, and either survive or not. The survivors should then be immune from further illness from Ebola. VOA and White House and Liberian National History Project
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Sep-14 World View -- Russia, India to sell supersonic cruise missile to Vietnam thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(17-Sep-2014)
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The center of international piracy moves from Somalia to Singapore
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With millions of Muslims from around the world about to arrive in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for their once in a lifetime Hajj pilgrimage on October 2-7, Saudi officials are pushing hard to prevent an outbreak of MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus). There is particular sensitivity this year, as the Ebola virus spreads out of control in Western Africa. Crowded Hajj events are the perfect venues for one infected person to spread MERS to several other people, causing a chain reaction.
Since the first cases of MERS were identified in 2012, there have been 855 cases and 333 deaths, with a 40% death rate. However, MERS apparently is more difficult to spread than Ebola, as most of the MERS deaths have been health care workers, or others who caught it in hospitals.
The "reservoir" for the MERS virus appears to be camels. Camels carry the virus but are not sickened by it, and can pass the virus to humans, who DO become sickened by it.
Saudi officials have for several months been on a massive education campaign, particularly targeting thousands of health care workers. Saudi health officials say they have beefed up their response to the outbreak, with better infection control in hospitals and improved surveillance systems such as a new Command and Control Centre in Jeddah, which can coordinate swift isolation and treatment of new cases to prevent spread. Arab News and BBC
On Monday, the Baitullah Mehsud faction of the Pakistan Taliban umbrella group Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) became the fourth faction recently to announce its separation from TTP. The apparent disintegration of TTP isn't necessarily good news, as it means that the individual ethnic terrorist groups within TTP are going to continue individually. Factional fighting within the TTP began in November 2011, when an American drone strike killed TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud. In an attempt to reunite the factions, the TTP pulled off a spectacular attack on Karachi airport in June of this year, claiming that was revenge for the drone strike that killed Mehsud. However, that attack backfired since, for the first time, Pakistan's army finally launched an operation, known as Zarb-e-Azb, on North Waziristan in Pakistan's tribal area to "clean out" the Taliban's hideouts and weapons stores.
The new faction has declared extortion, abduction for ransom, and bombing public places as Haram (any act that is forbidden by Allah). "One of the reason we have given up on the larger group is that conspirators have infiltrated it," according to a spokesman.
It was just three weeks ago that another group of factions broke off from TTP, and called itself Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly of Freedom). The leader, Maulana Qasim Omar Khorasani, had been strongly opposed by the "peace talks," earlier this year, between TTP and Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif. In a statement last February leading up to the split, a spokesman said:
"Some of our leaders have become prey to compromises and have agreed to conduct dialogue only to get the tribal areas liberated. It is very clear that Shariah can never be attained through talks. Even if the Government makes a concession, it will only be limited to the tribal areas. In the past, we used to participate in jihad [Holy war] from the platform of Tehrik-e-Taliban. But from now onwards, we will carry out attacks independently. The Mujahideen associated with the TTP are our brothers, but if they opt for a ceasefire with the Government, we shall not be bound by their agreement, nor are we willing to accept such a ceasefire."
Following the split, a spokesman claimed, "It was lack of leadership quality that TTP had been involved in bloody clashes that have taken lives of known Mujahideen. The leadership had no policy to deal with this situation." Samaa TV (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)
The changing nature of piracy has changed it from a multi-million dollar industry pursued by Somali warlords off the horn of Africa to a billion dollar industry pursued by commercial pirates in the seas of the Singapore Strait and Strait of Malacca.
Five years ago, pirate attacks off the horn of Africa had become fairly common. Pirates would board ships and hold the crews for multi-million dollar ransoms. But thanks to a multinational military effort and merchant crew training, the number of such attacks was reduced to 13 last year from 197 in 2009.
But the sheer number of merchant ships at sea, roughly 55,000, makes a similar approach impossible with the pirates of southern Asia. These pirates almost never seize hostages. Instead, they board the ship, tie up the crew, smash the communications and navigation equipment, and then get down to work -- stealing the cargo, which is usually gas or oil. The pirates bring their own tankers and siphon the oil or gas to their own ship. A typical haul for a few hours work is half a million dollars. CNBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Sep-14 World View -- Saudis push to avoid MERS outbreak as Hajj approaches thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Sep-2014)
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ISIS recruiting women from America and Britain
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The US and Malaysia are in discussions to permit US surveillance flights in the South China Sea to fly out of East Malaysian air bases, on the southern rim of the South China Sea. This is certain to further infuriate the Chinese, who blame the US for being "troublemakers," as China annexes other countries' territories in the same way that the Nazis annexed territories in Europe.
China has been pursuing a military "salami slicing strategy" to annex South China Sea territories belonging to other countries. China has annexed several islands and shoals in the South China Sea belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines, and is threatening to annex other territories belonging to Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan.
Because of China's annexations, China's relations with Vietnam and the Philippines have become increasingly hostile. China's relations with Malaysia have remained friendly, mainly because the Malaysians don't want to get the Chinese angry, even as China is preparing to annex Malaysian territory. (See "29-Jan-14 World View -- China's military moves to seize Malaysia's James Shoal")
Speaking on September 8, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) ADM Jonathan W. Greenert said:
"[R]ecently, the Malaysians have offered us to fly detachments of P-8s out of East Malaysia. You can see the closeness to the South China Sea. So we have opportunities and we ought to continue to nurture them."
According to Greenert, the offer is made in appreciation for American help during the search for Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 (MH370) that disappeared on March 8, and has never been found. A staging site in East Malaysia would enable the Navy’s maritime patrol aircraft easier access for operating over the South China Sea and shipping lanes such as the Strait of Malacca and the Sunda Strait, through which much of the world’s commerce passes.
Malaysia's defense minister denies that any such permission has been granted, but apparently the discussions have been going on for some time.
This comes at a time when China is increasingly harassing US surveillance planes flying over international waters in the South China Sea. Recently, a Chinese jet fighter made several passes as close as 30 feet to a U.S. surveillance plane in international waters. The incident is reminiscent of an April 2001 encounter, when a Chinese F-8 interceptor crashed into a U.S. surveillance aircraft off the southern China coast. The Chinese aircraft crashed into the sea, and its crew was killed. The U.S. plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island, and its 24 crew members were imprisoned for 10 days. Sea Power Magazine and Malaysia Chronicle
A new African jihadist group has broken off from Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and pledged loyalty to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS).
The splinter group is called 'Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria', and AQIM central region commander Khaled Abu Suleimane, whose real name is Gouri Abdelmalek, claimed leadership of the new group, and said in a statement:
"You have in the Islamic Maghreb men if you order them they will obey you. The Maghreb has deviated from the true path."
This is the latest blow to al-Qaeda in the rise of ISIS at the expense of al-Qaeda, thanks to a generational split between the two organizations, pitting the drawing power of old geezers like Ayman al-Zawahiri running al-Qaeda versus the youthful al-Baghdadi running ISIS. Even worse for al-Qaeda, the organization hasn't been able to pull off anything anywhere near as spectacular as the 9/11/2001 attacks. But ISIS has been spectacular in a different way, taking over large areas in Syria and Iraq and decapitating Western journalists, the things that create erotic fantasies in would-be jihadists and their jihadist-girlfriends. Reuters and Al Jazeera
The Minneapolis-St. Paul area, with its large community of immigrants from Somalia, has been a source of several dozen recruits for the al-Qaeda linked Somalia terrorist group al-Shabaab. In particular, Minneapolis jihadists were involved in the horrific three-day attack on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi Kenya, in September of last year.
Now US law enforcement is investigating what may be a new trend -- teenage girls from the Minneapolis-St. Paul area who are flying to Syria to join the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). They may join ISIS with dreams of marrying a big, strong jihadist, but monitoring of extremists' social media accounts and other writings shows that male jihadis regard women counterparts as little more than mating partners. According to one analyst, "ISIS is recruiting these women in order to be baby factories. They are seeing the establishment of an Islamic state and now they need to populate the state."
ISIS is also recruiting Muslim girls and women in Europe, particularly from Britain and France. Researchers are discovering that many of them are being used to run "brothels" to hold Iraqi girls captured by the ISIS militias, to be used by the ISIS militia terrorists as they please. Reuters and Huffington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Sep-14 World View -- US surveillance aircraft may have access to Malaysian air bases thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Sep-2014)
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Russian Orthodox fanatic considers Vladimir Putin to be united with God
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Without asking for permission or permitting inspections, Russia on Saturday sent a huge convoy of 220 trucks across the border of Ukraine, into the region of east Ukraine controlled by Russian army and pro-Russian anti-government forces. Ukraine officials are calling it "a direct invasion." Russia is calling it "humanitarian aid," but it could just as well be heavy weapons or even hundreds of Russian soldiers, reminiscent of the story of the Trojan Horse. Ria Novosti and Deutsche Welle
Every religion has its religious fanatics, and one of the leading fanatics in the Russian Orthodox religion is Dmitry Tsorionov, who uses "Enteo" as a pseudonym. According to Tsorionov in a recent lecture in Moscow:
"A divine light at the moment when [Putin] left his baptism transfixed his essence, restoring the destroyed depths of his being, and giving him an anthological ability to acquire celestial energy. ...Without a doubt he does good deeds, and for this God gives him grace. He strengthens his presence in Vladimir Putin, and Vladimir Putin becomes a living temple. God has been placed inside this little Vladimir Putin. This is a fact."
Supposedly, Tsorionov statements are drawn from the theology of the Byzantine Empire and the "godliness" of the emperor. But his bizarre statements may be more political than religious. He's anti-abortion, anti-homosexuality, and opposes teaching evolution in schools, saying that the universe was created 7,521 years ago, on the first of March, a Sunday. He's part of a growing group of ultra-conservatives who oppose any Western influence, even Apple Corp.'s logo, complaining that the half-bitten apple promotes original sin. These groups are occasionally violent against homosexuals and other politically incorrect groups.
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According to Tsorionov:
"We kill tens of millions of our children. We betray our wives. We don’t go to Church. We smoke hashish. Meanwhile, Vladimir Vladimirovich, the boss, is praying seriously for us all. Of course we are not worthy."
Perhaps Tsorionov is ignoring the years of reports about his mistress, 2004 Olympics award-winning rhythmical gymnast Alina Kabaeva. RFERL and Ria Novosti (8/2013)
A new internet video from the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) begins with a clip from Britain's prime minister David Cameron saying:
"We have to stick to the very clear foreign policy and the very clear strategy we have, which is to work with the new Iraqi government to help make sure the Kurds get the arms they need to fight off these brutal, extremist militants, to work with our allies, and as I've said to use everything we have — our aid, our diplomacy, and our military prowess — to make sure that with our allies we do everything we can to put pressure on Islamic State, the supporting organization..."
Next, the video shows the ISIS executioner, saying the following:
"This British man has to pay the price for your promise, Cameron, to arm the Peshmerga against the Islamic State. Ironically, he has spent a decade of his life serving under the brutal air force that is responsible for delivering those arms.Your evil alliance with America, which continues to strike the Muslims of Iraq and most recently bombed the Haditha Dam, will only accelerate your destruction, and playing the role of the obedient lapdog, Cameron, will only drag you and your people into another bloody and unwinnable war."
Cameron called an emergency meeting of his government early Sunday morning to discuss how to deal with the crisis.
Britain recently raised its national terror threat level to "severe," meaning that a terrorist attack is "highly likely," though not necessarily imminent. The announcement of this change referred to the approximately 500 British citizens that have traveled to fight in Syria, with 200 already having returned home.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, most of the world is deep into a generational Crisis era, with 69 years having passed since the end of World War II. During this era, the population reacts in a somewhat panicky manner to what are called "regeneracy events." These events appear to pose an existential threat to a country or its way of life, and they regenerate civic unity behind the leader and his call for military action.
We've seen this fairly dramatically in the last few weeks, when polls have shown a big swing among Americans from not favoring military action against ISIS to almost 2/3rds of Americans saying that military action against ISIS is in the nation's interest. This is an example of how quickly a regeneracy event can change public opinion during a generational Crisis era.
In the last few days, since President Obama's televised speech on Wednesday, Britain has been among those countries showing reluctance to join America's "coalition of the willing" to fight ISIS. So it will be interesting to watch closely in the next few days to see if public opinion in Britain shifts the way it did in America, and whether Cameron will announce that Britain will join America's conflict with Syria.
On Saturday evening, Cameron said the murder was "despicable and appalling," and added:
"It is an act of pure evil. My heart goes out to the family of David Haines who have shown extraordinary courage and fortitude throughout this ordeal. We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers and ensure they face justice, however long it takes."
That's already a pretty strong threat, and suggests that some kind of military response from Britain is coming.
A related question is this: Why did ISIS do this? What do they have to gain? It almost looks like they WANT Britain to join the U.S. in fighting ISIS.
I certainly am no mind reader, particularly of ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, but this action is quite consistent with two decades of jihadist terrorist attacks. As I've written many times, al-Qaeda has been using Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution as a model. The goal of al-Qaeda has been to trigger an uprising that would repeat that revolution in another country, putting al-Qaeda in control. In my view, ISIS is following the same strategy: by bringing airstrikes from America and Britain into Syria and Iraq, al-Baghdadi hopes to trigger an anti-Western uprising that will defeat Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and put al-Baghdadi and his "Islamic State" in power. NY News and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Sep-14 World View -- ISIS execution of Britain's David Haines may change US/UK military dynamics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Sep-2014)
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Little visible support for American coalition to fight ISIS
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Israel's Defense Force (IDF) has launched criminal problems over several incidents involving it soldiers during the Gaza war. In a July 16 incident, Israeli forces fired on a beach in Gaza City, killing four children who were playing there. Just over a week later, a UN school in the northern city of Beit Hanun was shelled by the Israelis, killing at least 15 people.
This will be part of an overall review by IDF. There will be 12 main review teams, each headed by a high-level IDF officer. Among the issues being reviewed are: the use of firepower during the operation; the maneuvering of ground forces; the IDF's readiness to deal with the tunnel threat; the decision to amass forces at a staging ground despite it being within range of mortar fire; the use of obsolete armored personnel carriers in fighting; intelligence; air defense; and coordination between the air, ground and naval forces.
Pro-Hamas activists are condemning the investigations as a "masquerade" that will lead to a "whitewash."
Another motive attributed to Israel is to head off an investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Generally speaking, the ICC can gain jurisdiction over war crimes cases only if the country involved is unwilling or unable to investigate itself. Deutsche Welle and Israel Hayom
Senior Hamas official Ismail Haniyeh is pressuring Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah), to sign a document that would give the International Criminal Court (ICC) jurisdiction to investigate alleged war crimes by Israel in the recent Gaza war. In a press statement, Haniyeh said:
"The Palestinian factions and Palestinian community all agree on the need for Abbas to go to the ICC and sign the Rome Statute in order to prosecute the leaders of the Zionist enemy for their crimes committed against the Palestinian people. ...Hamas signed the document urging Abbas to sign the Rome Statute, and the signing of this is the right of all the victims. Stalling the signing of the Statute is considered a concession of their rights and offensive to the Palestinian people and their struggle."
Haniyeh's remarks come as pro-Hamas officials and activists express puzzlement and outrage that Abbas in August explicity refused to sign the document that would give ICC jurisdiction over Israel's alleged war crimes. Abbas is the head of the Hamas-Fatah unity government, and so his approval is required before the ICC can act on any document provided by the Palestinians.
Various reports give several possible reasons for Abbas's refusal:
Another reason is related to the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war that we've written about in several articles. There is a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus PA/Fatah versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey. To put it bluntly, Abbas considers Hamas to be his enemy, and does not want to empower Hamas in a way that would happen if Abbas enabled an ICC war crime investigation of Israel. Ma'aN News (Bethlehem) and Middle East Eye and Middle East Monitor and Israel National News
The plans announced in President Obama's Wednesday speech to form a "coalition of the willing" to fight the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) have been running into some roadblocks.
Turkey made a surprise announcement on Thursday that it would not be participating, and would not allow American warplanes to use its air bases. Turkey has internal political considerations, and ISIS is holding 49 Turkish diplomats as hostages.
Arab states, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are reluctant to participate because they would face retaliation by jihadist terrorist groups. Nato allies Britain and Germany are also reluctant, and France is completely ruling out participation. Politicians in many countries note that President Obama has reneged on commitments before, and so many of these countries are reluctant to commit their own resources when it's not clear that Obama is fully committed.
It's possible that some of these countries will provide "quiet cooperation," but right now it looks like America will be the only country performing air strikes, and no country except Iraq will provide combat troops. I have not heard any analyst indicate that the project will be successful without substantially more cooperation, and right now there are few signs that that cooperation is coming. It's possible that officials in some countries will change their minds once the operation begins. CNN and Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Sep-14 World View -- Palestinians divided over taking Israel to International Criminal Court thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Sep-2014)
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CIA increases estimate: ISIS has 20,000 to 31,500 fighters
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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It was very hard to escape the impression, listening to President Obama's speech on Wednesday evening, that he would rather have all his teeth pulled out than have to give that speech, which could have been given by President George W. Bush, if he had had two more terms. President Obama's entire foreign policy has always been to ask what President Bush would do and then do the opposite, but the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) has forced him in the past few weeks to sound more and more like his predecessor.
His attempts to be the non-Bush were comical. Here's how he struggled to distinguish what he's doing from what Bush did:
"But I want the American people to understand how this effort will be different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil. This counterterrorism campaign will be waged through a steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist, using our air power and our support for partner forces on the ground. This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years. And it is consistent with the approach I outlined earlier this year: to use force against anyone who threatens America’s core interests, but to mobilize partners wherever possible to address broader challenges to international order."
So this is not a war -- that's a Bush thing. This is counterterrorism -- that's an Obama thing, and it's different.
Secretary of State John Kerry emphasized this when he was asked in an interview whether we were at war:
"We're engaged in a major counterterrorism operation, and it's going to be a long-term counterterrorism operation. I think war is the wrong terminology and analogy but the fact is that we are engaged in a very significant global effort to curb terrorist activity.I don't think people need to get into war fever on this. I think they have to view it as a heightened level of counter terrorist activity...but it's not dissimilar to what we've been doing the last few years with al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and in Yemen and elsewhere."
I try to write about President Obama on as few days as I can get away with, because I criticize him, and then people criticize me for criticizing him. But I just never have the feeling that Obama lives on this planet, or has any idea what's going on on this planet. It's just one bizarre thing after another. I'll come back to the comparisons with Yemen and Somalia below. But we're not at war? Are you kidding me? Wasn't it just last week that Vice President Joe Biden said we'd follow ISIS to "the gates of hell"?
It's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history. The corollary to this principle, which I've discussed many times since President Obama took office in 2009, is that going beyond pure rhetoric and politics, there will be little effective difference between Obama's presidency and President George W. Bush's hypothetical third and fourth terms, if such had taken place.
Indeed, Obama frequently said that the world would change on January 20, 2009, as soon as he was inaugurated as President. His goal was to heal the world with his mere presence -- cure global warming, provide universal health care, close Guantanamo, leave Iraq in peace, bring a two-state solution to Palestinians and Israelis, beat the Taliban in Afghanistan, restore the stock market bubble, and dismantle President Bush's war against terror. Nothing would be beyond his reach. And yet, it would be hard to find any real effective difference with how any of these policies would have unfolded in additional Bush administrations.
President Obama and John Kerry have had one foreign policy debacle after another. Now they're starting on something new, the conflict with ISIS, and they're playing with words. We can hope that this won't be yet another debacle, but this is a very bad omen. White House and CBS News
President Obama began his Wednesday night speech with:
"My fellow Americans, tonight I want to speak to you about what the United States will do with our friends and allies to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL."
What can he possibly mean by "destroy"? I can't think of a single example of a terrorist group being "destroyed," and he certainly provided no such examples. Let's make a list of the comparisons that he and Kerry did make in the excerpts quoted above:
One of Obama's big problems is that he keeps making ridiculous promises that he would know can't be kept if he understood what was going on in the world. The worst one was the chemical weapons "red line" in Syria that would trigger an American military response. Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad continues to use chemical weapons to this day, targeting innocent women and children with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.
So now Obama has committed to "destroying" ISIS. How the hell is he going to do that?
And here's one more thing from his speech:
"Moreover, I have made it clear that we will hunt down terrorists who threaten our country, wherever they are. That means I will not hesitate to take action against ISIL in Syria, as well as Iraq. This is a core principle of my presidency: If you threaten America, you will find no safe haven."
What's he talking about? Is he really going to take action against ISIS in Syria, when he refused to take action after Bashar al-Assad killed hundreds of people with Sarin gas?
When Obama was campaigning in 2008, he promised that as soon as took office then the earth would heal and the tides would recede. Obama is still making ridiculous promises. He just can't stop himself. Let's hope this doesn't end up as another debacle. White House
The CIA now estimates that the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) is made up of anywhere between 20,000 to 31,500 fighters. The CIA previously put the number at 10,000, and is now revising it upward by a factor of 2-3. The Hill
Iran is a Shia Muslim state, but Iran's southeast province, on the border with Pakistan, is Balochistan, which has a Sunni majority population. The rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) is presenting a serious internal threat to Iran. Just as would-be jihadists from around the world are heading for Syria to train with ISIS, the same is true of would-be jihadists from Balochistan, fueled by a combination of extreme poverty and decades-long resentment by the local Sunni population against the policies of the Shia-dominated central government in Tehran. I've reported several times about Jundullah, a terrorist group that has perpetrated major attacks on Shia mosques and Revolutionary Guard stations in southeastern Iran. Jundullah's successor in Balochistan is Jaysh al-Adl (Army of Justice), and it's feared that ISIS and Jaysh al-Adl will link up with disaffected citizens of Balochistan, and threaten the Tehran government.
That's ISIS's internal threat to Iran. The external threat is to Iran's two closest allies in the region, the governments of Syria and Iraq. In particular, it's feared that the conflict in Iraq will spill over onto Iran's soil, and some unconfirmed reports indicate that's already happened. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Sep-14 World View -- President George W. Obama pledges to 'degrade, destroy' ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Sep-2014)
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China's Uighur migrants attempt to reach Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The mostly Sunni Muslim ethnic Uighurs in China's northwest Xinjiang province have, for over 20 years, been using various migration routes to escape violence from Chinese officials. The original migration was triggered by the April 1990 "Baren uprising," a confrontation with China's army that led to the deaths of more than 1,000 Uighurs and Chinese troops in a five-day conflict. After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, many Uighurs fled to the newly independent Central Asian countries -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The Uighur language is "Turkic," mutually intelligible with Uzbek and similar to Kazakh, Kyrgyz and Turkmen.
After the late 1990s, China succeeded in closing the door to migrant Uighurs in Central Asian countries, and instead the migrants began traveling to Southeast Asia. Some joined the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and ended up being captured by American forces and shipped to Guantanamo.
After the extremely violent confrontations between Uighurs and Han Chinese in Xinjiang in July, 2009 ( "China's Xinjiang province is scene of violent anti-government protests"), a new flood of Uighurs migrated to Southeast Asia, including Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Burma and Malaysia. However, China has also been successful in closing these escape routes, and it's believed that "China's 9-11" in Kunming was perpetrated in retaliation. ( "2-Mar-14 World View -- Knife-wielding mob of probable Xinjiang terrorists kill 28 in southern China")
Dissaffected Uighur dissidents are now attempting to reach Turkey, which would not only provide refuge, but also offer Uighurs employment opportunities and support networks, where they may engage in anti-Chinese advocacy activities. Jamestown
Talk of an independent Scotland began some ten years ago, but now with the independence referendum vote scheduled for September 18 next week, Britain's politics are becoming chaotic. Until last week, it was believed by most people that the referendum would fail, and so not too many people seem to have worried about it. But a poll over the weekend showed a sizeable shift into the "yes" column, causing London to go into a panic and start making numerous promises to the Scots to convince them to vote "no."
If Scotland votes "yes," then there are many unknowns. What currency will Scotland use? Will Scotland be part of the European Union? Will the United Kingdom lose its veto in the U.N. Security Council? How will military and other assets be split between the two countries? BBC
Scotland's vote for independence is already energizing separatist movements all over the world, and that's particularly true in Spain, where activists in the Catalonia region are seeking independence, with a referendum scheduled for a month from now, on November 9. The Spanish government considers the referendum to be illegal, but it's going ahead anyway.
Catalonia had special rights throughout the Middle Ages, and only lost those rights with the War of the Spanish Succession that ended with the surrender of the people of Barcelona to the French on September 11, 1714. Thursday is "Catalan National Day," commemorating the defeat exactly 300 years ago.
During the rule of longtime dictator Francisco Franco, Catalonia's independence movement was illegal and even the Catalan language was banned. But in 1978, just three years after Franco's death, the Kingdom of Spain passed a democratic constitution granting the country's 17 regions autonomy. Catalonia and the other regions then got their own constitutions which guaranteed self-government. Since 1980, Catalans have been electing their own parliament, have had their own police force and have taught their children in the Catalan language.
In the early 2000s, Spain had one of the worst real estate bubbles of any country in the world. When the bubble crashed, the economy plummeted, and unemployment today is above 25%. When Catalan public protests began, Madrid placed restrictions on Catalonia in 2010, even on the Catalan language, giving further impetus to the independence movement.
The Scottish and Catalan independence movements may turn out to be linked. If Scotland joins the European Union, then Catalonia will probably do the same. But the reverse is also true. A lot of European governments are opposed to both separatist movements, and these governments will oppose both countries' attempts to join the EU. Spiegel and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Sep-14 World View -- Scotland's independence referendum is encouraging Catalonia's separatists thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Sep-2014)
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Protests in Sanaa are tied to gasoline subsidies
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the world, is also one of the most troubled. Yemen is fighting multiple wars at once.
The latest crisis is that four ethnic Houthis were shot and killed in the capital city Sanaa. They were part of a large group of Houthis who who have been camped out since mid-August. There have been several conflicts with the police. On Tuesday, the Houthis tried to force their way into the prime minister's office. The security forces who responded claim that they were not responsible for the protesters' deaths because they didn't shoot at the protesters, but shot in the air.
The protests were triggered by deep cuts in fuel subsidies in July imposed by Yemen's president Abdrabu Mansour Hadi, raising the price of gasoline by 60% and diesel by 95%. The cuts in fuel subsidies were demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in return for extending a $552.9 million credit line to Yemen.
Because of widespread public unrest, particularly anti-government rallies by Houthi rebels, Hadi last week ordered a 12% rollback in the subsidies. However, the Houthis are refusing to accept the partial rollback, and are demanding that the subsidies be fully restored.
The Houthis are in the Zaidi branch of the Shia Muslim religion, and are in control of large swathes of territory in northern Yemen, along the border with Saudi Arabia. They're considered a threat to both the Yemen government in Sanaa and the Saudi Arabia government in Riyadh. It's believed that Iran is funding them and supplying them with weapons, in an attempt to destabilize both Yemen and Saudi Arabia. SABA (Yemen) and Platts and Al Jazeera
While Yemen is fighting Shia Houthi rebels in northern Yemen, they're facing Sunni jihadists in southern Yemen, in the form of Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). AQAP has taken control of a large region and set up terrorist training camps. Before the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS), AQAP was considered the most dangerous branch of al-Qaeda to the United States. AQAP was responsible for several attempted terrorist attacks on the United States, including the underwear bomb that was used in the failed Christmas day bombing in 2009. One component of AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia, operates in both Yemen and Libya, and is believed responsible for the September 11, 2012, attack in Benghazi that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans.
On Tuesday, a suicide bomber reached an army checkpoint in Yemen, leading to a gunfight. A second suicide bomber sped towards the same checkpoint and detonated his explosives, killing the soldiers. It's estimated that in 2014 so far, AQAP attacks have killed 387 soldiers and injured hundreds more. Atrocities by militants reached a pinnacle in August this year as 14 off-duty soldiers travelling on a civilian bus were kidnapped and executed by AQAP militants, four of whom were beheaded. Yemen Times and Al-Ahram (Cairo)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Sep-14 World View -- Yemen faces both Shia Houthi protesters and Sunni AQAP jihadists thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Sep-2014)
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France's scapegoat 'Rogue trader' Jerome Kerviel is freed from prison
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The "rogue trader" Jérôme Kerviel was released from French prison on Monday, after serving part of a three-year sentence from his 2010 conviction on charges of breach of trust, forgery and entering false data. He'll serve out the rest of his sentence under partial house arrest. Kerviel worked at Sociéte Générale's as a trader. He placed fraudulent trades for months and made huge sums of money for the bank. Then his luck ran out, and his fraudulent trades failed, and he cost the bank $7.2 billion. Kerviel acted only on behalf of SocGen, and never tried to make any money himself.
What's so outrageous about this situation is that Kerviel is pretty much the only person who's ever been prosecuted for causing the financial crisis. As I've been writing for years, the evidence is unambiguous that individual "financial engineers" at Citibank, JP Morgan and other banks purposely created tens of trillions of dollars of synthetic subprime mortgage backed securities and sold them, knowing that they were fraudulent. Millions of people have lost their homes, or gone bankrupt, or had their cars repossessed because of the financial crisis, and no one is prosecuted except Kerviel.
An example of the fraud that was committed was exposed in 2010 by the Senate's Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, as I described in "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud". According to the testimony at the hearing, what Citibank did was as follows in simple terms: The financial engineers took a collection of subprime-backed B rated securities, applied a "slicing and dicing" process, and converted them into an equivalent value of AAA-rated securities. This is mathematically impossible, and as the Senate hearing showed, this was "smoking gun" proof of fraud.
These financial engineers were so-called because they were Gen-Xers who had gotten Masters degrees in financial engineering in the 1990s. They knew exactly what they were doing when they created and sold these fraudulent securities. Their Boomer CEO bosses could not possibly have understood the math that was used to create these fraudulent securities, but they must have known that the process of transforming B-rated securities to AAA-rated securities was impossible, and had to be illegal.
The model for handling this situation occurred in the late 1980s, when the Savings and Loan scandal occurred. The Bush 41 administration prosecuted thousands of people, sending many to jail.
But Attorney General Eric Holder has not prosecuted a single individual. Holder is always whining that no one respects him, and he whines because he was treated unfairly when he was held in Contempt of Congress for failing to produce documents. And yet, this jerk has not prosecuted a single individual for the financial crisis since he took office in 2008. Why? Either it's because he's totally incompetent, or it's because these bankers have contributed millions of dollars to Obama administration campaigns or organizations endorsed by the Obama administration, and not prosecuting is payoff.
But at least the French sent Kerviel, who never made a penny for himself, to jail. As I always like to say whenever I write about Kerviel, it's good to know that we're all safe today, because the person who caused the financial crisis has been identified, and is no longer at large.
Or perhaps we're not so safe. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations) on Friday (September 5) morning was 18.97 -- almost 19 -- which is astronomically high by historical standards. This means that the stock market is still in an enormous bubble, and the financial crisis is going to get much worse. Deutsche Welle and AFP
In recent days we've been discussing the realignment of the Mideast following the Gaza war and the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS). These crises, along with the conflict in Ukraine, intersect in Russia's southern provinces in the North Caucasus. The population of Chechnya, Dagestan, North Ossetia and the other Caucasus provinces are largely Muslim, and have strong jihadist presences that are kept under title control by Russia's army.
The ISIS crisis and the Ukraine crisis intersect in the North Caucasus, because ISIS is posing a greater threat to the region, while Russia is drawing soldiers out of the region to fight in east Ukraine. For years, the best combat-ready Russian forces were concentrated in the North Caucasus to fight first Chechnya's pro-independence movement and later the insurgency that spread across the entire region. As Russia is increasingly drawn into the conflict with Ukraine, Moscow is forced to relocate its best prepared military units from the North Caucasus to Ukraine. Some observers regard this as a potential "window of opportunity" for the North Caucasian militants.
At the same time, ISIS is posing a direct threat the Caucasus. Thousands of young Muslim men have gone to Syria to join ISIS and become jihadists, including many from the Caucasus. Citizens of Russia do not require visas to visit Turkey, and there are daily flights from North Caucasus locations to Istanbul. From there, would-be jihadists have no trouble traveling to the porous border with Syria and crossing over.
A video recently posted by ISIS on the internet threatens Russia, and Russia's president Vladimir Putin in particular:
"Vladimir Putin, these are the Russian planes that you sent to Bashar. Allah willing, we will take them back to your own turf, and liberate Chechnya and the Caucasus, Allah willing. The Islamic State is here to stay. It is spreading and has become a caliphate. Your throne is being threatened by us. Allah will grant us success. You can see the evidence for that in the Levant. There are consecutive conquests here. We are coming, Allah willing. Allah Akbar."
Ramzan Kadyrov, the Putin-appointed governor of the province of Chechnya, immediately released a statement with a counter-threat on Instagram:
"Taking all responsibility, I declare that those who have voiced a threat against Russia or who have mentioned the name of our president Vladimir Putin will be destroyed right where they made their statement. We will not wait for them to get behind the steering wheel of a plane. They will go where his fellow terrorists are rotting."
In the immediate future, the primary danger for Russian rule in the North Caucasus comes from widespread discontent for economic reasons. In the approach to the Sochi Olympics games earlier this year, Russia had been pouring billions of extra dollars into the North Caucasus to build infrastructure, and to reduce public discontent. But now that source of funds has dried up, and the people in the North Caucasus are bearing the brunt of the European sanctions that have been imposed because of Russia's actions in Ukraine. Jamestown and Ria Novosti and Memri and Jamestown
Whenever an Ebola treatment center opens in Liberia, all the beds are taken immediately. Patients fill taxis going from place to place, hoping to find medical care. The World Health Organization (WHO) says that more than 3,600 people have been infected with Ebola, and 2,000 have died, but as many as 20,000 will be infected. Health care workers have been hit especially hard -- 79 of them have died. "Transmission of the Ebola virus in Liberia is already intense and the number of new cases is increasing exponentially," according to WHO.
Well, if that's really true then a lot more than 20,000 will be infected. Liberia has a population of 4.4 million people, and at the current rate of exponential transmission, 20,000 infections will be reached in just a few more weeks, with a lot more to come. NBC News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Sep-14 World View -- Ukraine conflict and rise of ISIS put Russia's Caucasus at risk thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Sep-2014)
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Russia threatens Nato with a new nuclear military doctrine
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Weeks after Russia sent thousands of troops, hundreds of tanks, and other heavy weapons to join the anti-government militias in Ukraine, Russia appears to be consolidating its gains from the invasion by arranging for a ceasefire on Friday between Ukraine's government and the anti-government militias.
The ceasefire may or may not be holding, depending on what reports you read. Apparently the strategic port of Mariupol is still under at least sporadic attack by the Russians. If the Russian troops are successful in capturing Mariupol, then then can push through and link up with Russia troops already in the peninsula of Crimea, which Russia invaded and annexed in March.
There are no analysts that I heard who believe that the conflict is finally over. By means of "stealth invasion tactics," the Russian troops have leveraged local anti-government militias first to annex Crimea, and then to freeze Russian control of much of eastern and southern Ukraine, referred to by the Russians as "Novorossiya" (New Russia). Even if the current ceasefire holds for a few days, there seems little doubt that Russian troops will eventually push on to Crimea, and then on to the port of Odessa, to link up with the secessionist Transnistria province of Moldova. France 24 and Bloomberg
According to Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian military and security affairs at New York University, Russia's success in invading Ukraine comes from a military doctrine called "non-linear hybrid war" -- using highly trained and well equipped troops working in unison with local militant groups to destabilize territories. He expects Russia's next military doctrine revision to "place greater emphasis on intervention forces: the thought that 1,000 to 3,000 troops in the right place and in the right political environment, as we see in Ukraine, can make a big difference."
Although Nato has indicated that it will not use military force to oppose Russian forces in Ukraine, the invasion has energized Nato enough so that Russia is also revise its military doctrine to envision nuclear war with Nato, according to Russian sources. The doctrine may list Nato not only as the primary threat to Russia, but detail the scenarios in which preemptive nuclear strikes against the alliance would be on the table. Moscow Times
A bitterly angry Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) president Mahmoud Abbas is threatening to terminate the "Palestinian unity agreement" that Fatah signed with Hamas on April 23. Abbas is quoted as saying:
"I don't trust Hamas much because they change their words all the time. There must be a unified Palestinian Authority. ...You [Hamas] are smuggling weapons, explosives and money to the (West) Bank - and not to fight Israel, but to hold a coup against the (Palestinian) Authority.
Hamas has been trying to cause the Palestinian Authority to fail since the day it was formed."
During the last week we've been highlighting the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war around a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus PA/Fatah versus the Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey, with vitriolicly anti-American Iran increasingly aligning itself with America and the West. So it's not surprising at all that the Hamas - Fatah unity government is collapsing.
Part of the "peace agreement" that ended the Gaza war was to give the unity government control of Gaza. However, Abbas is accusing Hamas of running a "shadow government" that shuts out the unity government:
"We will not accept the situation with Hamas continuing as it is at the moment.We won't accept a partnership with them if the situation continues like this in Gaza where there is a shadow government ... running the territory.
The national consensus [unity] government cannot do anything on the ground."
Abbas was also bitterly angry at the way Fatah members were treated during the war: "Hamas conducted atrocities during the war in Gaza, also at its end when it executed 120 people without trial because they breached the curfew placed on them."
Mahmoud Abbas, born 1935, is the last of the major Mideast leaders who lived through and survived the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Like all survivors of generational crisis wars, he has devoted much of his life to try to make sure that nothing so horrible would happen to his children and grandchildren. As the leader of the Palestinian Authority, he is trying to find a way to prevent the new war that he senses is coming. If he fails, and he will, it will be the biggest personal failure of his lifetime. al-Jazeera and Deutsche Welle and Israel National News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Sep-14 World View -- Mahmoud Abbas threatens to end the 'Palestinian unity' government thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Sep-2014)
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Ebola pandemic may mean the end of the 'Africa Rising' dream
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In a series of articles in the last week, we've been highlighting the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war and the effect of the rise of ISIS on Saudi Arabia as well as rise of ISIS on India. I used a Generational Dynamics analysis to outline how the Mideast is realigning itself around a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudia Arabia versus the Palestinians plus Qatar plus Turkey, with vitriolicly anti-American Iran increasingly aligning itself with America and the West.
The terror group Hezbollah, which is funded and controlled by Iran, is not facing the same kind of schizophrenia that its puppetmaster Iran is experiencing. Iran's attitudes towards Israel are greatly split along generational lines, where the older generations talk about destroying Israel, and the younger generations like the West and don't have anything particular against Israel.
The same cannot be said for Lebanon's Hezbollah. I've seen no signs that there's any split at all in Hezbollah's attitude towards Israel, which is a desire for its destruction.
The new story that, just a few days after the end of the Gaza war, Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) are preparing for a "very violent" war with Hezbollah highlights the situation.
In Israel's 2006 war, Hezbollah's rockets did not reach far into Israel, and they were poorly aimed. The same was true of Hamas's rockets in the Gaza war. But today Hezbollah has an estimated 100,000 rockets and missiles, many with precision guidance systems and large warheads, able to target all of Israel.
In the 2006 war, Israel targeted Lebanon's infrastructure, in order to inhibit the transportation of weapons. In a new war, Israel would target homes in villages across Lebanon from which Hezbollah is launching rockets into Israel. Israel received a great deal of international condemnation for those actions in the Gaza war, and they would be stepped up in a new war with Hezbollah. In addition, it's believed that Hezbollah has build tunnels that travel from homes in Lebanon deep into Israel, and these tunnels would be targeted.
There's a real question whether Hezbollah's puppetmaster, Iran, would hold Hezbollah back from this war. Despite anti-Zionist rhetoric, Iran has little to gain from a Hezbollah attack on Israel, and Israel could retaliate by carrying out its long-time threat to bomb Iran's nuclear installations. Times of Israel
For the three days of September 19-21, people will be forbidden from leaving their home, in an attempt to stop the spread of Ebola. During this period 21,000 volunteers, including police and military personnel, will fan out across the nation to talk with people about how to protect themselves from the disease, as well as identify Ebola cases.
The idea is that people who are infected with Ebola will have three days to develop symptoms, and so will not then go out and accidentally infect others. Funerals have been a particularly important source of transmission, and in fact the current outbreak has been traced to a dozen individuals who attended the same funeral of an Ebola patient in Guinea in March. A dead Ebola patient is particularly infectious, and relatives touch victims during traditional funeral rites in west Africa, resulting in a rapid spread. Now, with the number of Ebola deaths surging, the number of funerals is also surging, and it's hoped that the three day lockdown, combined with education by the 21,000 volunteers, will prevent accidental transmission at funerals and by other means.
However, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) is saying that the idea is folly. According an MSF statement:
"Large scale coercive measures like forced quarantines and lockdowns are driving people underground and jeopardizing the trust between people and health providers. This is leading to the concealment of cases and is pushing the sick away from health systems."
Objections are also being raised to the use of 21,000 volunteers, most of whom would lack the high levels of expertise required to diagnose and deal with Ebola cases. According to MSF, "It will be extremely difficult for health workers to accurately identify cases through door-to-door screenings as this requires a certain level of expertise. And when cases are identified, there will not be enough Ebola management centers to care for them." Guardian (London) and CNN
After decades of war that were so brutal that Liberia's president Charles Taylor was accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity, West Africa finally seemed to be booming. Investment in had been booming, and the middle-class burgeoning. Democracy seemed to have taken root. The "Africa Rising" narrative seemed to be coming true.
But the Ebola pandemic has changed all that. There have been nearly 4,000 Ebola cases so far, cases are increasing exponentially and there is a potentially vulnerable population in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea in excess of 20 million. There have been over 2,000 deaths.
Health services throughout the region are completely overwhelmed. And the various lockdowns and quarantines are making matters worse. Airlines have canceled flights to and from the region, making it impossible to fly in health workers. Even simple things like rubber gloves are in short supply because transporting supplies to different regions is becoming impossible. The shortage of these supplies means that health workers are more vulnerable, and the shortage of health workers means that little can be done for Ebola patients except to just let them die.
That's true for more than just Ebola cases. This is malaria season in West Africa. A person infected with malaria will be afraid to go to a hospital filled with Ebola victims, and health workers will be afraid to treat the malaria victim, who might have Ebola instead. So malaria victims will just be permitted to die, like Ebola victims. Even women just giving birth may die for lack of medical care.
The economic consequences are severe. The epidemic is causing labor shortages that are endangering harvests and pushing up food prices.
Ebola was first encountered in 1976, named after the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire), where the first known outbreak occurred. That outbreak, and outbreaks since then, have all occurred in small villages and rural areas, where health workers were able to contain them quickly. The world has had no experience dealing with an Ebola outbreak in large, crowded cities.
The fear is growing that this Ebola outbreak will never be contained, and that it will just have to run its course, until every person in West Africa is exposed, and either dies or doesn't die as a result. The fear is also growing that the epidemic will spread to other countries, in some cases with the same result. Independent (South Africa) and BBC and Economist
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Sep-14 World View -- Israel preparing for 'very violent' war with Hezbollah thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Sep-2014)
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India to release 250,000 prisoners awaiting trial
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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With the world as fragile as it is, some people are suggesting that 2014 could be a pivotal year when some "great event" might occur that would determine whether the 21st century would bring peace and prosperity or war and poverty.
The BBC has posted a summary of the major crises of the world. In brief, here's their list:
No mention of China, its continuing annexation of territories belonging to other countries, and its massive preparation of missiles systems with no other purpose than a pre-emptive attack on the United States. BBC
India's Supreme Court on Friday ordered the release of about 250,000 prisoners who have been in jail sometimes for years, but who haven't had trials because the courts are overcrowded. These "undertrial" prisoners make up some two-thirds of the country's four million prisoners. The court order will apply to prisoners who have been awaiting trials, and who have already served at least half of the maximum sentence that they would receive if they ever reached trial. Calcutta Telegraph and AFP
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According to a detailed analysis in Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber), the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) is highly contemptuous of the U.S. bombing raids on ISIS, because they pose no real military threat. Instead of targeting main ISIS centers and bases, they target scattered armored vehicles and isolated positions. In fact, U.S. air activity in Iraq is diminishing by stages, while ISIS strengthens its grip on captured locations in Iraq.
According to this analysis, while the U.S. is bombing unimportant targets, the ISIS advance will travel along two paths simultaneously, along the Euphrates and Tigris river basins respectively, and link up in Mahmudiya, where the two rivers run in closest proximity. Ths would give ISIS a dominant military position over the Shiite provinces south of Baghdad and in relation to Saudi Arabia to the south and Jordan and Israel to the west. If successful, this would connect ISIS's northern Syria and western Iraqi strongholds -- the cradle of civilization -- without having run into a single Iraqi or Kurdish soldier to impede their progress – or being bombed by U.S. warplanes. Debka
In yesterday's World View column, ISIS and al-Qaeda in a generational struggle for India, I posted a couple of paragraphs from the statement by al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. The full statement can be found here (PDF)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Sep-14 World View -- Debka: ISIS is targeting the Euphrates and Tigris river basins in Iraq thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Sep-2014)
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China to increase harassment of U.S. surveillance planes
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In the past few days, we're discussed the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war and the effect of ISIS on the Mideast realignment. However, the meteoric rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) is firing the excitement and imagination of young Muslim men around that world, giving ISIS an effect that goes well beyond the Mideast.
Islam has grown organically within India, unlike other countries, and has over centuries evolved elaborate cultures of accommodation with Hinduism and other faiths. India's last generational crisis wars -- the 1947 Partition war between Western India and Pakistan, and the 1971 crisis war between Eastern India and Bangladesh (East Pakistan) -- were both particularly bloody, and pitted Hindus against Muslims, leaving even the Muslim survivors living in India with little desire for more violence through terrorist attacks. What Islamic terrorism has occurred has mostly come from external sources, namely terrorist militias in Pakistan, often funded by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Agency.
But now two important developments, both attributable to the rise of ISIS, indicate that internal forms of Islamic terrorism are likely to increase in India.
First, ISIS is directly energizing Islamic terrorism in India. Estimates vary from several dozen to several hundred of the number of Indians that have gone to the Mideast and are suspected of having joined ISIS. A breakaway faction of the Indian Mujahiddeen has declared its intention to fly the ISIS flag over South Asia. And the formerly moderate India militia Jamaat-e-Islami recently issued a statement:
"It is very necessary to welcome the announcement of the establishment of Islamic Caliphate by the ISIS because Islamic caliphate is the aspiration of every Muslim and there has never been a disagreement on the issue among the Muslims in any period of history."
An unknown is what effect ISIS is having on the Pakistan, and ISI's funding of anti-India militias, particularly in Kashmir and Jammu. ISIS may energize ISI as well to increase funding to homegrown Indian jihadist groups like Indian Mujhideen, or to encourage these jihadist groups to enter the ISIS fold. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and One India
The second new development attributable to ISIS is that al-Qaeda has apparently been energized to take a new look at establishing a branch in India.
The rise of ISIS has led to a generational split within the global jihadist community. When ISIS's young leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared himself a new "caliph," and demanded that the entire Muslim world bow down to him, the response has been sporadic. While young Muslims may be drawn to the thrill of decapitating Western journalists, older jihadists are tied by loyalty oaths to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, and are even more repulsed by the ISIS's recent massacre of hundreds of Sunni tribesmen in Syria. Others simply question the religious legitimacy of al-Baghdadi's self-anointed caliphate.
So, some people see al-Zawahiri's new message as opportunistic, and others see it as desperate. His statement emerged in a video late on Wednesday:
"A new branch of al-Qaeda was established and is Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian subcontinent, seeking to raise the flag of jihad, return the Islamic rule, and empowering the Shariah of Allah across the Indian subcontinent. [It will defend the] vulnerable in the Indian subcontinent, in Burma, Bangladesh, Assam, Gujarat, and Kashmir [and] your brothers in Qaedat al-Jihad did not forget you and that they are doing what they can to rescue you from injustice, oppression, persecution, and suffering.This entity was not established today, but it is the fruit of a blessed effort for more than two years to gather the mujahideen in the Indian subcontinent into a single entity to be with the main group, Qaedat al-Jihad, from the soldiers of the Islamic Emirate and its triumphant emir, Allah permitting, Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid.
It is an entity that was formed to promulgate the call of the reviving Imam Sheikh Osama bin Laden, may Allah have mercy on him, to call the Ummah to unite round the word of Tawhid (monotheism), to wage jihad against its enemies, to liberate its land, to restore its sovereignty, and to revive its Caliphate."
The leader of the new group, Umar, said in an audio recording released with the video, that Jews and Hindus, whom he referred to as "apostates of India", "will watch your destruction by your own eyes." Fighters will "storm your barricades with cars packed with gunpowder," Umar said, decrying what he called the region's "injustice toward Muslims."
Whether the old geezers at al-Qaeda can attract young Muslims in India is far from clear. The realignment of the Mideast goes far beyond the Mideast, and it seems likely that ISIS will be more successful in India than al-Qaeda will. Pune Mirror (India) and Foreign Policy
As we recently reported, a Chinese jet fighter made several passes as close as 30 feet to a U.S. surveillance plane in international waters. The incident is reminiscent of an April 2001 encounter, when a Chinese F-8 interceptor crashed into a U.S. surveillance aircraft off the southern China coast. The Chinese aircraft crashed into the sea, and its crew was killed. The U.S. plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island, and its 24 crew members were imprisoned for 10 days.
It's been assumed that these were the acts of rogue Chinese pilots, but now it appears that they were ordered from above, and that the harassment is likely to become even more aggressive and dangerous. According to China's Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong:
"We didn't give them enough pressure (before). A knife at the throat is the only deterrence. From now on, we must fly even closer to U.S. surveillance aircraft."
It's believed that China is trying to prevent the U.S. from learning anything about their submarine fleet. China is continuing to build submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles with a range of over 4,000 nautical miles, and already has 70 such submarines. China has been for years on an aggressive program to develop as much military capability as possible, including a variety of missiles with no other purpose than to target American cities, aircraft carriers, and military bases. The submarine fleet would permit China to launch simultaneous nuclear attacks on hundreds of cities across the United States. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Sep-14 World View -- ISIS and al-Qaeda in a generational struggle for India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Sep-2014)
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ISIS and the resurgence of Saudi Wahhabism
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In yesterday's posting ( "3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war"), I used a Generational Dynamics analysis to outline how the Mideast is realigning itself around a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudia Arabia versus the Palestinians plus Qatar plus Turkey, with vitriolicly anti-American Iran increasingly aligning itself with America and the West. More needs to be said about the rise Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS), and its place in the Mideast realignment.
It probably wouldn't be too much of an exaggeration to say that leaders in Saudi Arabia are becoming panicky about the rise of ISIS. It's estimated that 2,500 Saudis have joined ISIS, a number surpassed among Arab nations only by Tunisia, with 3,000. Saudi media are reporting almost daily on the discovery of signs of support for Isis – most recently in slogans scrawled on the walls of schools in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital city. It's believed that ISIS has received funding from Saudi sponsors in the past, fighting Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and Saudi Arabia itself is split between supporters and non-supporters of ISIS.
However, the Saudi government has been very publicly and very firmly cracking down on ISIS recently. Last week, the Saudis announced the arrest of 88 people, days after an imam was jailed for glorifying al-Qaeda and ISIS.
Saudi Arabia's King, Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, is becoming increasingly exuberant in warning the West about ISIS. In a statement at a recent gathering, he warned about the "evil" of terrorism:
"If we ignore them [terrorists], I am sure they will reach Europe in a month and America in another month. Terrorist knows no borders and its danger could affect several countries outside the Middle East."
In the continuing realignment of the Middle East, it seems increasingly likely that ISIS will play an important part. The conundrum is that ISIS is a bitter enemy of Iran, but it's also an enemy of the Saudi Arabian government. Whether the solution to the conundrum will be a war within Saudi Arabia itself remains to be seen. Asharq Al-Awsat (Riyadh) and Guardian (London) and Canadian Broadcasting
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia is part of an interesting group of countries -- countries that, like Mexico, Morocco, Turkey and Russia, had a generational crisis war in the 1920s, but none since.
Saudi Arabia's last generational crisis war occurred in the 1920s between the Al Sauds tribes and the Wahhabi tribes. The two groups had (have) different interpretations of Islam, and Wahhabism may be thought of as a separate branch of Sunni Islam, following an austere interpretation (many Muslim scholars would say "misinterpretation") of the Koran. The more moderate Al Sauds defeated Wahhabi tribesmen in the 1920s and transformed Wahhabism into a socially conservative pillar of support for what soon became the country of Saudi Arabia in 1932.
However, the fault line between the Al Sauds and the Wahhabis never disappeared, and it's not surprising that violence along this fault line began to increase three generations later in the late 1970s, particularly with the Wahhabi seizure of the Grand Mosque at Mecca, the holiest site in Islam.
There's little doubt that either this revolt or some subsequent revolt would have led to a full-fledged renewal of the war between the Al Sauds and the Wahhabis by now, if it weren't for Saudi Arabia's oil wealth, which permits it to spend large amounts of money to head off discontent.
ISIS's leader, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, has deliberately and intentionally adopted the Wahhabi doctrine as his own, according to Saudi scholar Fouad Ibrahim:
"Through its intentional adoption of this Wahhabist language, ISIS is knowingly lighting the fuse to a bigger regional explosion -- one that has a very real possibility of being ignited, and if it should succeed, will change the Middle East decisively."
In the past, when violence was threatened against Saudi Arabia's leadership, it was almost always completely internal violence. ISIS is a much more serious threat to Saudi Arabia, because it's an EXTERNAL threat. And since ISIS already has plenty of wealth, Saudi Arabia cannot buy off ISIS with oil money. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and Guardian (London) and Huffington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Sep-14 World View -- ISIS and Saudi Arabia in the Mideast realignment thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Sep-2014)
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Doctors Without Borders: We're losing the battle against Ebola
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Declassified documents reveal that in the 1950s the FBI trained Alaskan residents to become agents behind enemy lines if the Soviets invaded. The US government feared that the Soviet Union was planning an intervention and occupation of Alaska. The US military believed that the Soviet invasion would be airborne, with bombing preceding dropping of paratroopers to Alaska's major inhabited localities, namely Anchorage, Fairbanks, Nome and Seward. Russia Today and Proposed Plan for Intelligence Coverage in Alaska in the Event of an Invasion (FBI, 1954) (PDF)
In the wake of the Gaza war, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, and officials from other Arab nations are developing an initiative to bring peace to the Mideast by "ending the occupation" within a "definite timetable."
The initiative comprises three phases:
According to an Egyptian government editorial:
"This is a unique juncture, and with the steady [worsening] of the situation in Gaza and Israel's war crimes against the Palestinian people, we can no longer content ourselves with trying to find [temporary] arrangements while being certain that the conflict will erupt again. Like President 'Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi stressed, there is a real chance to end the Gaza crisis and solve the Palestinian problem... The international community should not pass up this chance, which was born of the ruin, destruction, killing, and violent battles. The parties to the conflict must sympathize with the suffering of their peoples and make brave choices for peace... If this chance, as well as Egypt's support for the efforts [to attain] a permanent solution to the Palestinian problem, are not utilized, then all signs indicate that the future will be worse. If there is no just and real peace, the alternative is extremism and terrorism at the hands of ISIS and its ilk. Israel is not distant from the rest of the world, and therefore terrorism will not only target it, but the rest of the world as well, starting with Europe and America."
A new poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) shows that the Gaza war was an enormous political victory for Hamas, with a great increase in its popularity and support for its approach to armed resistance. At the same time, there was a major decline in the popularity of the Palestinian Authority and its president, Mahmoud Abbas. Similar changes occurred in previous wars between Hamas and Israel, but this time the changes in popularity were unprecedented in size.
According to the poll findings:
The logic of this poll is that it clearly contradicts the intention of the new "peace initiative" by Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, and the Saudis, as described above. According to the PCPSR, Hamas's renewed popularity "might be temporary and things might revert in the next several months to where they were before the war."
The clear implication of this is that there will be another war in the "next several months," because Hamas is going to want to maintain its popularity and remain in power. Hamas has absolutely no motivation whatsoever to accede to a "peace agreement," and all Hamas has to do to start a new war with Israel is to launch a few rockets. Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal was quoted as saying that "only peace will ensure Israel's endurance as a state."
He's right about that, but the problem is that there isn't going to be peace. As I wrote in May, 2003, and repeated dozens of time since then, there will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
Writing about this new peace initiative by Egypt, the PA and Saudi Arabia almost gives me a headache because we've gone down this road so many times before. It's suggestive of that old joke defining insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different outcomes.
One thing that's becoming increasingly clear, however, is that it's not going to be a war between Jews and ALL Arabs. The fault line between Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia versus the Palestinians plus Qatar plus (non-Arab) Turkey is becoming wider every day. This indicates that the Israelis will have allies among the Arabs, and that Arabs will be fighting each other, as well as the Israelis.
The rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) could not have been predicted, but what was predicted was the war outlined above, and that the Syria civil war would end. This has happened in a remarkable way, as the Syria civil war has long since morphed into a proxy war involving Syria, various al-Qaeda militias, ISIS, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and soon the U.S. It's my personal opinion that the "Nation of IS" will not last as long as many people fear or expect, but at the very least we can expect to see ISIS subsumed into the larger regional war, almost certainly on the side of the Palestinians and Qatar.
I've left Iran mostly out of the above discussion because it continues its schizophrenic path. Several long-time readers have written to me recently saying that they never believed that Iran would become our ally, as I've predicted many times in the last ten years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, and now they're totally astonished to see this prediction come true right before our eyes.
In fact, even the editors of the New York Times appear to be completely astonished by this development, as indicated in this article:
"The fight in northern Iraq appeared to be the first time U.S. warplanes and militias backed by Iran had worked with a common purpose on a battlefield against militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, even though the Obama administration said there was no direct coordination with the militias.Should such military actions continue, they could mark a dramatic shift for the United States and Iran, which have long vied for control in Iraq. They could also align the interests of the Americans with their longtime sworn enemies in the Shiite militias, whose fighters killed many U.S. soldiers during the long occupation of Iraq. ...
[In] a worst case scenario, more Sunnis could align with ISIS fighters."
This realignment, which was predicted by Generational Dynamics, is how the Mideast is going.
Iran, which is in a generational Awakening era, with one generation having passed since the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war, is pursuing a schizophrenic policy characterized by a major generational split between the Revolution survivors, who can't shake off their old policies and are still fighting the last war, versus the younger generations who grew up afterwards, who like the West, and don't particularly dislike Israel. Right now the old geezers are still setting national policy, but when forced to choose, the younger generations will win out, and they will be aligned with the West. New York Times
President Obama has ordered 350 additional troops into Iraq, "to provide the necessary security for U.S. personnel and facilities." The administration has authorized 775 troops since mid-June, so this new order brings the total up to 1,125. The order came a few hours after ISIS published another video on Tuesday showing the group had beheaded another American journalist, freelancer Steven Joel Sotloff. The Hill
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) has treated more than 1,000 Ebola patients in West Africa since March, and is completely overwhelmed. According to MSF president Joanne Liu:
"Six months into the worst Ebola epidemic in history, the world is losing the battle to contain it. Ebola treatment centers are reduced to places where people go to die alone, where little more than palliative care is offered."
She says that infectious bodies are rotting in the street, and that Liberia had to build a new crematorium instead of new Ebola care centers. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Sep-2014)
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Russian lawyers: 'Stealth invasion' of Ukraine is legal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Having raised UK's terror threat level last week to "severe," meaning that a terrorist attack is "highly likely," but not necessarily imminent, Britain's prime minister David Cameron on Monday announced a new set of anti-terrorism measures.
The new measures are targeting a specific issue: Would-be jihadists going to Syria to join the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) for training, and them coming back to the UK to use those skills in terrorist attacks. According to published statistics, approximately 500 British citizens have traveled to fight in Syria, and 200 of them have already returned home.
The first measure pertains to suspected citizens traveling abroad. It will give police the power to temporarily confiscate a passport, in order to prevent the suspect from leaving the country.
The second measure applies when a suspected citizen returns. Police will have the power to exclude British citizen suspects from reentering the country. If the citizen is allowed into the country, the legislation will give police new powers to track suspected jihadists and to take advantage of "enhanced relocation powers." Suspected terrorists will required to undergo "de-radicalization programs."
Consideration was given to the power to revoke a suspect's UK citizenship, but unless the suspect had a dual citizenship, such a power would leave the subject stateless, in violation of international law.
In addition, airlines will be forced to hand over more information about passengers travelling to and from conflict zones. BBC and CNN
Russia's government is hearing complaints from the liberal media to explain why a group of Russian paratroopers, captured by the Ukrainian army, were deployed to Ukraine by Russia's president Vladimir Putin without authorization of the Federation Council, the upper chamber of Russia's parliament.
Soldiers' mothers are complaining loudly that their sons are coming home from Ukraine as "cargo 200" -- as dead servicemen shipped home are referred to in Russia, based on the standard weight of a coffin -- without telling their families that they were deployed to Ukraine in the first place.
However, apparently Putin can do pretty much anything he wants under Russian law, thanks to a "universal mandate" that the Federation Council issued to the president in 2009, allowing him to invade any other country without further approval.
About 190,000 members of the 760,000-strong Russian army are "volunteers," serving upon their own volition. They earn 18,000 rubles ($500) per month, a huge sum by Russian standards. They can be ordered into combat in Ukraine or anywhere else at any time, and there isn't even a contractual requirement that relatives be notified if volunteers are killed in the line of duty.
The Russian government is disavowing soldiers who are being killed in Ukraine, according to Russian activists. Numerous reporters, both Western and Russian, have investigated what appear to be freshly dug, unmarked graves of soldiers. All online accounts of the men who were buried there have been removed from the Internet, as have photos of the soldiers that their families placed on their graves. When Russian journalists traveled there, the BBC reported that men told them they would "never be found" unless they left.
But for Putin, it's all perfectly legal. Moscow Times and Washington Post and Telegraph (London)
India's prime minister Narendra Modi met with Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo on Monday, supposedly to improve economic ties, but it was clear that the threats posed by China were high on the agenda. Their joint statement said, "The two prime ministers reaffirmed the importance of defense relations between Japan and India in their strategic partnership and decided to upgrade and strengthen them."
Abe and Modi agreed to hold regular joint naval exercises with the United States, and to increase Japanese military exports to India. This agreement was particularly significant in view of Abe's recent reinterpretation of Japan's pacifist constitution, which permits military action only for Japan's self-defense. Abe has reinterpreted this to mean "collective self-defense." I discussed this issue in detail recently in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan".
This reinterpretation of the constitution will permit the armed forces to use the military to defend allies, such as the United States or India, even if the ally is being attack but Japan is not. It will also permit the Japan to rescue Japanese civilians in remote locations.
According to a Defense Ministry statement on Monday:
"The recent approval of the exercise of the right to collective self-defense means that it could become possible, depending on the situation, for the MSDF [Maritime Self-Defense Force] and the Indian Navy to jointly patrol the sea lanes."
In a press conference, Modi took a swipe at China:
"The 18th century situation of expansionism is now visible. Such expansionism would never benefit humanity in the 21st century. ...The world knows the 21st century is Asia's century. But its shape and quality are not yet clear. This will be decided by how Japan and India work together. I think our relationship is moving to a new level."
Australian and Reuters and Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Sep-14 World View -- India, Japan leaders meet to counter rise of China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Sep-2014)
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Pakistan's army issues a veiled threat to politicians
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Anti-government militias in eastern Ukraine, supported by thousands of Russian soldiers (supposedly "on vacation"), along with Russian weapons and armor, fired from the shore on a Ukrainian ship off the coast of Mariupol, in the Sea of Azov, damaging it. The Russian militia leader Igor Strelkov bragged, "The militia have dealt the enemy their first naval defeat." Strelkov is the same Russian leader who bragged about shooting down the Malaysian Airlines passenger plane with a Russian-supplied Buk missile system, before he realized it wasn't a warplane.
Ukrainian forces in the port city of Mariupol continue to brace themselves for an expected full-scale attack by Russian forces on the city. It's feared that Russian troops will join with troops already in Crimea, continue all the way to Odessa, and connect with separatist Moldovans in Transnistria in eastern Moldova.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin continued his pattern of threatening statements by demanding on Sunday that "Novorossia" be granted statehood. Novorossia is the anti-Ukraine word for eastern and southern Ukraine. On Friday, Putin said, "[I]t's best not to mess with us. ... I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers."
The Russian invasion and threats come as European leaders are in Brussels commemorating the 75th anniversary of Hitler's invasion of Poland. According to Britain's prime minister David Cameron, ""We know from European history the danger of the territorial integrity of a nation state being threatened and undermined in this way." VOA and Moscow Times and Reuters
Pakistan's opposition party politician Imran Khan, the former cricket superstar turned anti-American politician, called for continued riots and demonstrations, as did Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri, another opposition party politician. But after a violent Saturday evening, when hundreds were injured, Sunday's protests were relatively quiet and non-violent, although many Islooites (residents of Islamabad) stayed indoor for fear of their safety. The objective of the riots is to force the resignation of prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who won a landslide election last year in May.
There is increasing fear that the army is planning to take control of the government through a coup. There was an emergency meeting of army commanders on Sunday afternoon. The army issued a statement after the meeting affirming their support for democracy, but indicating that they wouldn't tolerate anything that risks the security of the state:
"While reaffirming support to democracy, the conference reviewed with serious concern, the existing political crisis and the violent turn it has taken, resulting in large scale injuries and loss of lives. Further use of force will only aggravate the problem.It was once again reiterated that the situation should be resolved politically without wasting any time and without recourse to violent means.
Army remains committed to playing its part in ensuring security of the state and will never fall short of meeting national aspirations."
Imran Khan and Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri are widely believed to have overreached themselves, but many feel that the government and the army have also acted poorly. The News (Pakistan) and Guardian (London) and BBC and Pakistan Inter-Services Public Relations
Israel is changing the status of 400 hectares of West Bank land so that it will be eligible for building Jewish settler homes. The land had previously been listed as survey land, a designation that prevented settlement building. The action infuriated officials in the Palestinian Authority. Chief negotiator Saeb Erekat said:
"The Israeli government is committing various crimes against the Palestinian people and their occupied land. The international community should hold Israel accountable as soon as possible for its crimes and raids against our people in Gaza and the ongoing Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank and east Jerusalem."
Jerusalem Post and Deutsche Welle
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Sep-14 World View -- Israel infuriates Palestinians by claiming West Bank land for settlements thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Sep-2014)
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