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U.S. foreign policy in further chaos as Israel's Netanyahu is slammed
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Tensions are rising sharply in Jerusalem after the Israeli government shut down all access, for the first time since 2000, to the Al Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem, the third holiest site in Islam, following Mecca and Medina. The Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas said that the move was "tantamount to a declaration of war."
Events have been moving quickly this week, following the announcement earlier this week on Tuesday by Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel would plan for 1000 new settlements in East Jerusalem. There have been clashes between Palestinian activists and Israeli security forces.
The same site is also known as Temple Mount, and is the holiest site in the Jewish religion, because it's believed that buried underneath the Mosque are the remains of the Temple at Jerusalem. In 66 AD, the Jews in Judea began a rebellion against their Roman colonizers. The Romans massacred tens of thousands of Jews and destroyed the city of Jerusalem including, in 70 AD, the Temple at Jerusalem.
In 2000, then-prime minister Ariel Sharon went to Temple Mount and prayed there, infuriating the Palestinians, and triggering the "second intifada," the Palestinian uprising against the Israelis that lasted until 2005. A compromise was devised that would permit Jews to visit Temple Mount as tourists, but not to pray there.
So on Wednesday morning, a Palestinian activist shot and wounded Rabbi Yehuda Glick, an American citizen, who was leading a group of advocates to permit Jews to pray at Temple Mount again.
On Thursday morning, Israeli police stormed the home of Mutaz Hijazi, 33, the Palestinian activist accused of the attempted assassination of Glick. A gunfight ensued, during which Hijazi was shot and killed.
The shooting triggered fresh clashes in East Jerusalem, and prompted Gaza militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad to call on Palestinians to begin a "third intifada."
The increasing violence prompted Israeli officials to close Temple Mount and the Al Aqsa mosque compound to everyone, Jews and Muslims alike. That act has triggered more violence, and triggered Abbas's claim that it was a "declaration of war."
Mustafa Barghouti, a senior Palestinian Authority official, issued a press release announcing that a third intifada was underway, and, in anticipation of the Muslim prayers on Friday, calling on the "Palestinian people as a whole to defend the Al Aqsa Mosque, the dignity of the Palestinian people, and their freedom."
Hoping to quell further violence on Friday, Israel has announced that Muslims will be permitted to return to the Al Aqsa Mosque on Friday prayers. However, only men over age 50 will be permitted to enter. Whether this will reduce the level of violence remains to be seen.
East Jerusalem has been the epicenter of increasing clashes between Palestinians and Israelis ever since the bodies of three Israeli teenage settlers were found weeks after they were abducted on June 10 by terrorists that Israelis believe were commissioned by Hamas. They were the subject of an extensive manhunt throughout the West Bank, during which hundreds of Palestinians, mostly members of Hamas, were arrested. Israel was shocked three weeks later, when the teens were found dead in a pit in the West Bank. There followed a spiral of violence that led to the Gaza war in July and August, and continuing clashes since then around Jerusalem. The National (UAE) and CS Monitor and Jerusalem Post and Jewish Telegraphic Agency
President Barack Obama and Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu viscerally hate each other -- this is well known. Also well-known is that the entire U.S. administration is bitterly hostile to Netanyahu, blaming him for all the ills in the Mideast.
Obama and John Kerry have had a foreign policy characterized by one humiliating failure after another. One of the recent disasters occurred in late July when Kerry submitted a 'peace proposal' for the Gaza War that met all the demands and talking points of Hamas (ending the "siege"), but did not address any of the security concerns of Israel (disarming Hamas). The proposal was so ridiculous that it made Obama and Kerry even more irrelevant in the Mideast than they already were.
And now anonymous administration officials are being credibly quoted as calling Netanyahu both "a chickenshit" and "a coward." The US administration have made themselves completely irrelevant in the Mideast. Since they're completely irrelevant anyway, why can't they just shut up? The Atlantic and LA Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Oct-14 World View -- Palestinians accuse Israel of 'declaration of war' as tensions mount in Jerusalem thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Oct-2014)
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Unanswered questions about the spread of Ebola
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
World Health Organization (WHO) assistant director Bruce Aylward said that "We're seeing a reversal of that rapid rate of increase to the point that there seems to be a decline right now."
He added, "Getting a slight decrease in the number of cases on a day-to-day basis, versus getting this thing closed out, is a completely different ball game." This is a highly ambiguous statement. It could mean that the total number of cases is declining, meaning the number of new cases is now smaller than the number of people who are recovering or dying. Or it could mean that the number of NEW cases has declined, which would mean that the number of new cases is no longer growing exponentially, but has leveled off.
Or it could mean that the number of new cases is still growing exponentially, but at a smaller exponential rate.
The figures that I derived from the WHO situation reports (see the next item, below) seems to indicate this latter interpretation. A couple of months ago I was hearing that the number of Ebola cases doubled every 3 weeks. The figures I derived indicate that the number doubles every 4.7 weeks which is exponential growth at a slower rate.
A couple of weeks ago I wrote "19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk". I identified several continuing risks about Ebola -- that there could easily be new outbreaks anywhere in the world in megacities, slums and war zones. None of that is changed by Aylward's statement, and I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't disagree with me. Reuters
There has been very little Ebola spread out of the three countries in West Africa. This has led me to wonder if perhaps I was missing something.
The World Health Organization publishes Ebola Situation Reports every few days.
I went to the most recent situation report (PDF), dated October 25, 2014. The following table depicts the total numbers of infections and deaths:
+---------------+--------------+--------- +
| Country | # infections | # deaths |
+---------------+--------------+--------- +
| Guinea | 1553 | 926 |
| Liberia | 4665 | 2705 |
| Sierra Leone | 3896 | 1281 |
| Mali | 1 | 1 |
| Nigeria | 20 | 8 |
| Senegal | 1 | 0 |
| Spain | 1 | 0 |
| U.S. | 4 | 1 |
+---------------+--------------+--------- +
| Total | 10141 | 4922 |
+---------------+--------------+--------- +
IT seems strange that the only large numbers of cases are in the original countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), and that the only cases outside of Africa were in Spain and U.S. It doesn't make sense to me that Ebola hasn't spread to other countries in Africa, and that there haven't been individual cases in other countries in Europe or Asia or Latin America.
So, in order to do further analysis, I went back to WHO's original situation report (PDF), dated August 29, 2014, and I compared some of the numbers in the two reports, in order to get an estimate of the growth rate in the number of cases.
If you take the total number of infections -- 3052 on August 29, and 10141 on October 25 -- and do a computation, then you get that the number of infections doubles every 4.7 weeks, which is a little more than a month (4.25 weeks per month).
If you apply this rate to the number of infections, you get 40K by Jan 1, 80K by Feb 1, 160K by Mar 1, and so forth. But can that doubling rate be sustained? The WHO announcement that the outbreak is "in decline" would seem to indicate that it can't be sustained.
So next, I extracted the Ebola location maps from the two reports.
Here's the August 29, 2014, map:
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Here's the October 25, 2014, map:
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Comparing these two maps, you can see that most infections were in the west, but they've apparently been moving eastward, apparently stopping at the borders of Mali and Côte d'Ivoire. This is not credible. These country borders are porous, and tribal boundaries do not correspond to national boundaries. It's not credible that the spread of Ebola has stopped dead at these country borders.
We recently had the news story of the two year old infected baby who was carried on a bus all the way from Liberia to the western border of Mali almost to the eastern border, with multiple stops, including a two-hour stop in Bamako. Other than the death of the 2 yo, we haven't heard anything more about Ebola in Mali. ( "25-Oct-14 World View -- Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola")
At least a few cases of Ebola must surely have spread into these Mali and Côte d'Ivoire, on the border with Liberia, without our being aware of it. If this is true -- and I don't see how it could not be true -- then there must be unreported cases in these countries.
If there are individual cases in the U.S. and Spain, then there must be unreported individual cases in other countries. Consider the following:
If there have been Ebola cases in the U.S. and Spain, it's hard to believe that Cuba and China would be immune to Ebola cases. What's different about Cuba and China is that if either has an outbreak of Ebola in either country, it would be covered up and we'd never know, until the outbreak became extremely serious. (This is what happened in China with the SARS outbreak ten years ago.)
There are plenty of people, including migrant workers, who go back and forth between Africa and their home countries, including Asia and Latin America. Some countries are so undeveloped that officials might not even know there's an Ebola outbreak until it had spread for several days.
So there are a lot of unanswered questions about what's going on. There must be or will be many unreported cases of Ebola, in West Africa and elsewhere; it's not credible to believe otherwise.
Finally, returning to the question of whether the Ebola outbreak is "in decline," one possibility is that it's really in decline, and another possibility is that the only thing that's declining is the number of reported cases, with sharp increases in the number of unreported cases. We should have definite answers by the end of the year. WHO Ebola Situation Reports
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Oct-14 World View -- World Health Organization says Ebola outbreak is 'in decline' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Oct-2014)
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Turkey explains why they won't send troops into Kobani
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Following on the car bomb that killed 33 Egyptian troops in Sinai last Friday, which Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi said in a nationally televised speech was an existential threat to Egypt, Egypt is now beginning to evacuate residents of Sinai along the border with Gaza near the Rafah crossing, in order to create a buffer zone.
Several readers wrote to me regarding the article I wrote on Friday's attack. ( "26-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai") They said that although the article was accurate, the headline was misleading in that the state of emergency did not apply to all of Egypt, but only to parts of the Sinai peninsula.
Al-Sisi has blamed Hamas for supporting the attack, and has ordered the creation of a 500 meter buffer zone along the border with Gaza, to prevent the smuggling of weapons. The buffer zone will eventually stretch along the full 8 mile length of the border. Residents living in homes along the border are being forced to evacuate so that their homes can be demolished. Over 800 houses and 10,000 residents may be affected.
For years, Egypt has been destroying tunnels that are used to smuggle weapons and terrorists underneath the walls separating Gaza from Egypt. This has been a somewhat futile effort, since Hamas quickly rebuilds tunnels after they're destroyed.
In an effort to end the building of tunnels once and for all, Egypt's army intends to dig a deep trench along the Gaza border, and fill it with water. The trench will be 500 meters deep along the entire Gaza border, but will be as much as three km deep in the final stage.
Update:The Jerusalem Post article has been updated to indicate that the trench will be 500 meters wide, as much as three km wide in the final stage. (Paragraph added. 29-Oct) Al-Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and Jerusalem Post
Apparently final agreement has been reached for Turkey to permit 161 Iraqi Kurdish fighters (Peshmerga) to enter Turkish soil from Iraq and then cross the border into Kobani, Syria, later this week.
Kobani has become one of the major symbols of the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), in that the United States coalition has been using air strikes to prevent ISIS from overrunning Kobani, and this has energized ISIS to pour more troops into the battle in order to humiliate the United States. CNN
Turkey has been under a great deal of international pressure to send troops into Kobani, across the border in Syria, to save the Kurdish population from extermination by the the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).
Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu gave a very interesting interview on the BBC on Tuesday on Kobani and on Turkey's position on numerous issues. Davutoglu speaks English, and the following excerpts are my own transcription, with a little bit of editing for clarity:
"Saving Kobani has been the main slogan the main message of the international community for last 2 months, but we have to define what means saving Kobani.If saving Kobani means saving civilians living in Kobani, you're well aware that people of Kobani already came to Turkey [as refugees], and they're under safe conditions.
But if saving Kobani is retaking Kobani and some area around Kobani, from ISIS, then there's a need of a military operation. Who will be doing this military operation? This is the question that I was really surprised and shocked when some international media accusing Turkey or expecting Turkey to do something, should define what Turkey should do. If Turkish military intervenes Kobani, I am sure many of these media or international parties will criticize Turkey for intervening in another country.
The only way to help Kobani, since other countries don't want to use ground troops is sending some peace oriented or moderate forces to Kobani. What are they? Peshmerga [Kurdish militia in Iraq]. The Peshmerga is part of the Iraqi army, constitutionally they are part of the Iraqi army, and the Free Syrian Army. So when the Free Syrian Army and Peshmerga said that they're ready to go, we said yes. But if other countries, Americans, Europeans, want to send their troops, Turkey never said no."
Davutoglu was reminded that the Americans and the Europeans have repeatedly said that they would not send in ground troops to Kobani.
"Well, if they don't want to send their ground troops, how can they expect Turkey to send Turkish ground troops with the same risks on our border? So the question is here: is it easy to accuse, to say something against another country.But they have to make empathy, and they should ask, what can we do, and what can we expect from Turkey to do? Nobody can accuse Turkey or blame Turkey for the situation in Kobani."
Two weeks ago, American vice president Joe Biden was forced to apologize to Turkey, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates after accusing them of having funded ISIS and contributing to its rise. The interviewer reminded Davutoglu of that, and said that even Jordanian and Egyptian intelligence officials have accused Turkey of the same thing. Davutoglu firmly denied this:
"You mentioned some intelligence services - they cannot claim this - there is no evidence that Turkey has any link, any cooperation, any support to these type of groups.It is up to Turkey - it is on our border - and Turkey declared ISIS as a terrorist organization last year in Oct 2013 - when these countries didn't do so for many months, and they are also not fighting against them. Turkey is fighting.
Only Turkey has bombarded ISIS troops in December 2013. And several hundreds of them were killed when they approached the Turkish border."
Next, Davutoglu was reminded that Turkey is accused of allowing foreign fighters and jihadis to come to Turkey and then cross the border into Syria to join ISIS. Even Turkish fighters have done this.
"Turkish fighters on the ground who went there illegally are [far fewer] than British fighters. Much less.I spoke with my colleagues two years ago, on how to prevent these foreign fighters [from going] in, and I asked them to stop these people [from leaving] their countries like Britain to come to Turkey. They said we're a democratic country, so how can we stop them? I told them, then, then please give us the names, so that we can prevent them from coming into Turkey.
They said we cannot give the names unless they've committed a crime. Then I said, how can you expect Turkey to stop them, when Turkey receives 35 million tourists every year. We cannot make such a check.
So fighting against this type of flow is the combined effort of all the concerned parties. Nobody can expect from us to stop tourism or coming foreign people inside Turkey, and check them whether their name are Muslim names, and so forth."
Finally, Davutoglu was given an opportunity to talk about the refugee situation. Lebanon has announced that they will no longer accept refugees, and Davutoglu was asked whether Turkey will adopt the same policy:
"Thank you very much for this question. Nobody is looking at refugee crisis, this humanitarian crisis. We have now around 1.6 million [refugees in Turkey, but this is approaching almost 2 million after the Kobani cases.Yesterday I was in a town, not a border town, and there are 56,000 Syrians living there, not only in camps, but also in the cities. In some other cities, the Syrians outnumber the Turkish citizens who are living there. We have been taking a huge responsibility, and huge risk receiving Syrian refugees, and we spent 4.5 billion until now, and it is increasing every day, and nobody is helping us. I have to make very clear- UNHCR and others are doing their efforts, but altogether around 200 million. Very minimal.
And I understand very well the Lebanese situation, because it is affecting the Lebanese social political demography altogether. [But we would not do the same] in Turkey because of our historic relations.
We've always said, not only in Syrian case. When Kurds were massacred by Saddam, we opened our border. When Bosniaks were massacred by [Slobodan] Milosevic we opened our border. ...
So this is the historic tradition that our border has been open for people, for victims, and it is against our tradition to close our door.
But we will insist to have safe havens on the other side of the border, so that Syrian people will stay in Syria, rather than to come into Turkey. Therefore , we have a long-term vision, and we can see the consequence of any policy if Aleppo is being taken, or is being bombarded by Syrian regime like today, millions of Syrians may come. at that time of course, we have to take certain measures - how to keep them on Syrian side."
The final remarks refer to Turkey's proposal to create a protected border strip within Syria where Syrian refugees can go rather than Turkey. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt begins evacuating Sinai residents on Gaza border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Oct-2014)
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Israel announces plans for 1000 new settlements in East Jerusalem
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In an announcement that's generating strong emotions on all sides, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved planning for 1,000 new settlement home units in East Jerusalem. According to Israeli media, the decision was forced on Netanyahu leaders in the ultra-nationalist Jewish Home party, which is part of his governing coalition, who are demanding an end to the "Obama building freeze." However, it was only a planning announcement, with no pledge to actually erect the units.
Palestinian Authority executive Dr. Hanan Ashrawi condemned the Netanyahu's announcement, saying that it "exposes the true nature of this blatantly racist and extremist Israeli coalition."
East Jerusalem has been the epicenter of increasing clashes between Palestinians and Israelis ever since the bodies of three Israeli teenage settlers were found weeks after they were abducted on June 10 by terrorists that Israelis believe were commissioned by Hamas. They were the subject of an extensive manhunt throughout the West Bank, during which hundreds of Palestinians, mostly members of Hamas, were arrested. Israel was shocked three weeks later, when the teens were found dead in a pit in the West Bank. There followed a spiral of violence that led to the Gaza war in July and August. There have been continuing clashes in the region around Jerusalem, and it's feared that this new announcement will trigger even more. Israel National News and International Middle East Media Center (Gaza) and Reuters
Because of the threats to Poland posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, Poland is moving thousands of troops to military bases along its eastern borders, in what is being called a historic realignment of the army.
According to Polands defense minister Tomasz Siemoniak:
"The geopolitical situation has changed. We have the biggest crisis of security since the Cold War and we must draw conclusions from that."
After World War II, Poland was a member of the Soviet bloc, and it's army was based along the country's western border, to defend a possible invasion from Europe. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Poland joined Nato in 1999, but today most most of Poland’s 120,000-member army is still based in the west. The move to the east is the first major realignment since the end of WW II. Washington Post and Russia Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Oct-14 World View -- Poland to move thousands of troops east in reaction to Russian threat thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Oct-2014)
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One banker jumps to his death, another hangs himself this week
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Clashes between the largely Shia Lebanon army versus Sunni jihadists in the northern Lebanon city of Tripoli, on the border with Syria, are entering their fourth day. The clashes are a spillover of the war in Syria, and are the worst violence in Lebanon since the war began.
There are two competing Sunni jihadist groups in Tripoli. One is the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), which broke from al-Qaeda several months ago, when its leader, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi declared ISIS to be a new worldwide Muslim caliphate. The other is Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), which has remained loyal to al-Qaeda.
Over the past several weeks, militants from both al-Nusra and ISIS have launched several attacks on the army in the Tripoli area. Lebanon's army launched a counteroffensive on Friday, and began going from house to house in Tripoli, searching the houses for "ISIS suspects." This has caused a worsening humanitarian crisis, and led to many Tripoli civilians fleeing from their homes.
In a statement Saturday, the Lebanese military vowed that its troops would "not be pulled back until after the terrorists are eliminated." Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Jazeera and Washington Post
Lebanon's cabinet passed a resolution closing the borders to any more Syrian refugees. No Syrian national will receive the "refugee" classification in the future, except in "an exceptional humanitarian case." Lebanon will also encourage "refugees to return home or to go to any other country by all possible means." If the resolution is fully implemented, then tens of thousands of Syrians with homes under attack by either the regime of president Bashar al-Assad or the opposition will not be able to flee to Lebanon.
There are over 3 million Syrian refugees from the war, mostly in neighboring countries. Another 6 million have been displaced within Syria, making it one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Lebanon has 1.1 million officially registered Syrian refugees, although the number is believed to be far higher. They make up almost a quarter of the country's population of 5 million.
Lebanon has followed a different policy in handling refugees than Turkey or Jordan, which built special camps to house the refugees.
Lebanon rejected that idea because of their experiences with Palestinian refugee camps, which were supposed to be temporary but have continued to exist for decades, and currently house fundamentalist groups and armed militias, as well as Palestinian civilians.
Also, the Palestinian refugee camps at Sabra and Shatila were the site of a massacre of Palestinian refugees in camps 1982, an event that still weighs heavily on Lebanese psyches.
Instead, Syrian refugees in Lebanon can live in existing communities, rent apartments, and try to find a job. The result is that Lebanon's economy is strained to the limit.
The new proposal will require municipalities to comb areas where refugees are residing, and document their numbers. Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Arabiya/AP
Thierry Leyne, 48, a top business associate of former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn committed suicide in Tel Aviv on Thursday, by jumping to his death from his 23rd floor luxury apartment in central Tel Aviv.
On Monday, the wife of Deutsche Bank banker Calogero Gambino found him hanging by the neck from a stairway banister in their Manhattan home. Gambino was cooperating with US regulators probing Deutsche Bank's involvement in illegal Libor rigging.
In January, former Deutsche Bank Senior Managing Director William Broeksmit was found by his wife hanged in his South Kensington, London home. Later in the year, a Senate hearing on bank fraud linked Broeksmit's name to an allegedly illegal $12 billion scheme to allow hedge funds to avoid paying short-term capital gains taxes.
These two are the latest of 20-30 banker suicides in 2014, with JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank strongly represented among the suicides bankers.
During the 1930s Great Depression, bankers jumping to their deaths was frequently a subject of black humor. ("Did you hear about the two bankers who booked a double hotel room so that they could commit suicide together?")
Today, it appears that there are just as many banker suicides. At times like this, it's worthwhile reviewing the history of how we got to this point.
Generation-X grew up in the 1980s often without fathers. They lived in mother-only homes, thanks to policies advocated by feminists telling mothers to dump the father and then lie in court about domestic violence in order to get large child support payments. 30% of whites and 72% of blacks grew up in homes with no fathers except for a string of men in their mothers' beds. These kids grew up hating their fathers and their mothers' boyfriends and the entire Boomer generation. Inner city blacks in Chicago and elsewhere who kill each other for sport are often from these fatherless families, which is not surprising.
The elite white kids expressed their hatred differently. Many got master's degrees in financial engineering in the 1990s, and then used their skills to knowingly sell trillions of dollars' worth of fraudulent subprime mortgage backed securities to the hated Boomer investors, creating the real estate and credit bubbles that resulted in the financial crisis, which today is far from over. Since the Obama administration has refused to punish these Gen-X criminals, they've remained in the same jobs, defrauding people in other ways, as I've described many times. Many of the bankers who have committed suicide are guilty of or suspected of being guilty of other kinds of fraud.
So given the recent history of banking, it's perhaps not too surprising that many bankers are committing suicide. These are criminals whose past is finally catching up with them. New York Post and Jerusalem Post and MMNews (Germany) (Trans)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Oct-14 World View -- Sunni vs Shia sectarian clashes grow in northern Lebanon thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Oct-2014)
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Sinai attack signals the end of Gaza peace agreement terms
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has declared a state of emergency in the Sinai peninsula to last three months, with a curfew in force from 5 pm to 7 am. Egypt will also close the Rafah crossing that connects Gaza to Egypt, effectively canceling one of the major terms of the peace agreement that ended the Gaza war that took place in July and August of this year.
On Friday, 26 Egyptian troops were killed when a car bomb rammed a checkpoint in the northern Sinai, near the border with Israel. This followed a gunfire attack on Wednesday from Sinai on an Israeli Defense Force (IDF) unit on the other side of the border in Israel.
The perpetrators are assumed to be the Sinai terrorist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdas (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem). Terror attacks have been on the increase since the army coup that ousted president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government on July 3 of last year, and ABM has claimed credit for many of them. ( "17-Feb-14 World View -- Egypt's terrorism escalates with attack on tourist bus")
However, the perpetrators may instead have been Jund al-Khilafah (Soldiers of the Caliphate), a splinter group from a similarly named Algerian terrorist group that has pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). This group announced itself last month, and has promised to strike American interests and the "worshippers of the Cross" in Egypt.
There had been a few months of relative peace in the Sinai due to an economic outreach to the Bedouin tribes living there and to the stationing of Egyptian troops, now numbering 7,000. Friday's attack are thus considered a major setback for the government.
Al-Sisi gave a speech on Saturday saying that the "foreign-funded operation" was an existential attack on Egypt:
"A plot is being woven against all of us. All that is happening has been expected. Egypt is battling a huge war – a battle of existence. We should remain united; one hand, one heart. ...We must know that this terrorist attack was supported by foreign hands to defeat the military that has been protecting the Egyptian people and their will. ...
I have noted before that the war in Sinai will last for a long time, as there are a lot of terrorists hiding in the peninsula, but this new level of attacks has put us in a new level of planning too in order to combat the terrorism there.
There are attempts to drive a wedge between the people and the army. No-one will be able to divide the Egyptian people and its army."
Al-Sisi did not name any specific groups in his statement, but he doesn't distinguish between the Muslim Brotherhood, and external jihadist groups. Al-Sisi is promising to take "many measures" suppress terror attacks. One proposed measures would allow military courts used to try civilians accused of offences such as blocking roads or attacking public property. Middle East Eye and VOA and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Newsweek
When the Gaza war ended with a cease-fire agreement ( "27-Aug-14 World View -- Israel and Hamas agree to 'long-term' truce in Gaza war"), the following were the terms:
Senior Hamas officials have been accusing Israel of purposely delaying the implementation of this agreement. Much of Gaza's infrastructure and housing was destroyed by airstrikes during the Gaza war, and Israel is particularly accused of delaying the shipment of construction materials into Gaza for use in rebuilding.
Egypt is accusing Hamas of being behind Friday's terrorist attack, which Hamas denies. Egypt has now closed the Rafah crossing, which connects Gaza to Egypt, and opening this crossing had been a major demand of Hamas in the ceasefire negotiations. But now, unnamed Egyptian officials are promising to go much farther.
Egypt is said to be planning to set up a buffer zone of between 1.5 and 3 kilometers along the Gaza border. Forces are expected to start evicting people and clearing structures in the proposed buffer zone, which will then be heavily guarded by Egyptian army patrols.
The objective of the buffer zone would be to make infiltration from Gaza into Sinai more difficult. In particular, it would be more difficult to rebuild the smuggling tunnels that have been built under the wall that separates Gaza from Sinai. The Egyptian army has been destroying these tunnels when it finds them, and the buffer zone would mean that any new tunnel would have to be much longer, and require a longer time to build. Times of Israel
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Hamas media is reporting that its military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, is actively working on restoring the attack tunnels used in the Gaza war, after many of them were destroyed during the war. The Hamas media report indicates that there are two kinds of tunnels:
According to the report:
"The Al-Qassam Brigades use the tunnels for several military missions, such as: firing rockets on Israeli cities; firing massive barrages of hundreds of mortars on the settlements around the Gaza Strip, and carrying out quality operations behind enemy lines that have resulted in the killing and capture of soldiers and terrorized millions of Israelis."
The report adds that Gaza is ready for a new war with Israel. Memri
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Oct-14 World View -- Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Oct-2014)
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World Health Organization declares a global polio outbreak
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The news Craig Spencer, a physician with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) who was treating Ebola patients in Guinea, has himself contracted Ebola since returning to NY city, is triggering high anxiety and near-panic in some people in NY city, especially on the news that Spencer took the subway and went to a bowling alley. And yet, Spencer's situation appears to have been a template for how the public can be kept safe from Ebola. New Yorkers are many, many times more likely to be killed in a traffic accident than by Ebola.
By contrast, there may be a worst-case scenario unfolding in Mali.
A 2-year-old girl was carried by her grandmother hundreds of miles on a bus that traveled from Guinea to Mali, stopping in several towns, including two hours in the capital city Bamako. The girl had a bleeding nose, and was first treated for typhoid on Monday in a clinic in Mali. When she did not improve, she was tested for Ebola, which was confirmed on Thursday.
Officials doing contact tracing identified 43 people, including 10 health workers, who came into close contact with the girl. But there may have been dozens of additional people who came into contact with the sick girl during the bus trip, and there is no way to trace these people.
The NY city case and the Mali case are sharp contrasts, showing what is and isn't possible in controlling the spread of Ebola.
As I wrote last week ( "19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk"), any large city and any war zone are places which are vulnerable to the spread of Ebola, either unintentionally or through a terrorist act. But as the Mali case shows, any crowded train or bus could be the vehicle that spreads Ebola from city to city or country to country.
Since Ebola has already been spreading in Guinea for several months, we may never know whether the 2-year-old girl is responsible infecting other people in that country. The girl died on Friday. Forbes and BBC and CNN
The World Health Organization (WHO) says that "millions of doses" of an Ebola vaccine will be available by the end of 2015. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and the Public Health Agency of Canada already have experimental vaccines in safety trials.
Normally it would take almost ten years to bring a new vaccine to market. The "millions of doses" prediction is a best case scenario that assumes that everything will go well in the breakneck development being planned. Enormous shortcuts will be taken in safety and efficacy trials, and there are insufficient manufacturing plants that meet the "biosafety level 2" regulatory requirements, meaning that safety standards may have to be reduced. And even if all that goes OK, it's still possible that the vaccine won't work, or won't work well, or will have dangerous or unpleasant side effects.
There are plenty of legal problems. Pharmaceutical companies will not go ahead with the vaccine program unless governments absolve them of legal liability if something goes wrong.
And then there's the problem of administering the vaccine to the public. There are dozens of megacities in the world, each with over 20 million people. Once Ebola starts spreading in such a city, it will be too late to start administering a vaccine. Even if the vaccinations start early, there may be gang wars or drug cartels making an effective vaccination program impossible. Vaccine may first be given to the upper classes, possibly stirring unrest in the slums.
Similar problems exist in a war zone. If Ebola starts spreading in the war zones in Central African Republic, South Sudan, Syria, Iraq, or any other war zone, then a vaccination program will be impossible. An Ebola vaccine will first be administered to whichever army has control of the supply, but administering the vaccine to civilians may be impossible.
The Ebola cases that arose this past week in NY city and Mali are going to be repeated many, many times. As I wrote last week in ( Forecasting the Ebola endgame, I expect the world to look very different a year from now. BBC and Science Insider and AP
The World Health Organization (WHO) is declaring a resurgence of polio globally, with outbreaks in at least 10 countries: Pakistan, Syria, Cameroon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. According to a WHO official:
"It’s really attributed to two things. One is the spread out of Pakistan through the intense transmission. And then combined with an increase in vulnerability of some highly unstable areas like Syria where it’s been able to get another foothold."
Karachi Pakistan is rapidly becoming a polio hub. Polio cases in Pakistan have been surging to record-breaking levels, thanks to the Taliban's opposition to polio vaccine, claiming that it's a Western plot to sterilize Pakistani children. The Taliban have been murdering health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio providing vaccines, ever since the U.S. administration bragged in 2011 that a hepatitis vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama bin Laden.
Polio has also re-emerged in Syria since polio vaccinations have become extremely limited since the war began in 2011.
There has been a polio vaccine available for decades, and yet polio has still not been eradicated. In fact, cases of polio have been surging in war zones and large cities where there is civil strife.
If an effective Ebola vaccine is developed, it's far from clear that even having millions of doses available will be effective in stopping the spread of Ebola. AP and Deutsche Welle and AP (May 2014)
On Sunday, October 19, Breitbart editor-in-chief interviewed me about the Ebola crisis on his SiriusXM Patriot radio show. You can hear the 15-minute interview by clicking on: John Xenakis interviewed by Steve Bannon (MP3)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Oct-14 World View -- Two-year-old baby in Mali dies after spreading Ebola thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Oct-2014)
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Indonesia's president calls for a 'global maritime axis'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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When Nigeria's government last week announced a ceasefire deal with the terrorist group Boko Haram that would return to their homes 230 schoolgirls that had been abducted in April, many people noted that announcement was being made from one side only, and was not being confirmed by Boko Haram leaders. ( "18-Oct-14 World View -- Nigerians skeptical of deal with Boko Haram to release abducted schoolgirls")
It now turns out that the people who assumed that the government leaders were lying or mistaken were right. In a fresh attack on Tuesday on a different village, Boko Haram has abducted 40 more girls. Sun News Online (Nigeria)
Christophe de Margerie, 63, head of France's oil and gas giant Total (pronounced toe-TAL) SA was killed in a plane crash in Moscow on Monday evening. The corporate jet carrying Margerie collided with a snowplow on the runway as it was taking off in thick fog. Both French and Russians are investigating the crash to determine whether the cause was pilot error or negligence at the control tower.
De Margerie's death is considered a blow to Russia's economic interests because he was a very vocal supporter of Russia, and opposed European sanctions on Russia because of the latter's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. Just hours before his death, he said the following in a speech:
"In general I’m against sanctions. I’ve repeated this many times. You heard that. And I’ve become not very popular in my country as I was often blamed for promoting our own interests. I don’t like sanctions as such because I think they are both unfair and counterproductive."
Total is currently participating in five large oil/gas projects in Russia, and theoretically they're now all in jeopardy, thanks to U.S. pressure, although analysts believe that Total will not completely abandon them.
For Russia's rulers, de Margerie seemed the embodiment of an ideal European partner and more: A French aristocrat and major oil CEO, anti-American in inclination, whose cooperation would force the European sanctions to collapse, and turn Russia's invasion of Ukraine into a total victory. His sudden tragic death is seen as a severe, devastating blow.
As a result, paranoid ultranationalists in Russia are seeing the death of de Margerie as a deliberate plot by opponents of Russia's president Vladimir Putin, presumably the United States. Russia Today and Russia/India Report and Jamestown
Saying that Indonesia has been "neglecting our seas, oceans and bays," newly elected president Joko Widodo used his inaugural address to call for turning Indonesia into a "global maritime axis."
In view of Indonesia's naval buildup plans, in reaction to China's apparent plans to annex Indonesia's Natuna Islands by military force ( "21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands"), Joko's call may well be viewed as a challenge to China.
According to Joko, in his inaugural address earlier this week:
"The seas, the oceans and the bays are our future, and we have been neglected our seas, oceans and bays.This is the time to return to Jalesveva Jayamahe [Sanskrit for 'In the sea we will triumph']. ...
To build Indonesia into a great, prosperous and peaceful country we must possess the soul of Cakrawati Samudra [Sanskrit for a maritime nation with a strong merchant navy].
As the captain of the ship, I invite all Indonesians on board to move toward a prosperous nation. To all fishermen, laborers, farmers, meatball sellers, drivers, all the professionals -- I call on you to work hand in hand because this is the historical moment for us to work, work and work."
Meatball sellers?
Although Joko did not mention China, he's expected to announce a new cabinet post for coordinating maritime, natural resources and environmental affairs. Jakarta Globe
Wall Street pundits were thrilled on Thursday when the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 216 points, over 200 points for the third time in a week, after falling a similar amount in the preceding 6 days. These wild swings are also occurring for bond prices, oil prices and VIX (volatility index) prices. As I've been explaining, these wild swings signal a very dangerous time when a crash might be approaching. This would be the case if the amplitude of the swings continues to increase in the next few days, though not necessarily if the swings settle down. The S&P 500 price/earnings ratio (stock valuations) is at historic highs, indicating that the stock market is in a large bubble, and Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and selloff. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Oct-14 World View -- Plane crash killing France's Total SA president jeopardizes Russia's oil contracts thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Oct-2014)
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Turkey's military options in Syria are restricted by limited capability
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A gunman shot and killed a soldier at a war memorial in Ottawa on Wednesday, then ran into the parliament building where he exchanged gunfire with police. At this writing on Wednesday evening ET, police are hunting for additional suspects. It's suspected, not confirmed, that it was a "lone wolf" attack inspired by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).
Canadians are known to have the feeling that this sort of thing happens elsewhere, not in Canada, so Canadians are in shock over these terrorist attacks. Much of Ottawa is still locked down, as are parliament buildings, military installations, and other potential targets all across the country. American military installations are also on high alert.
It was just a few hours earlier, on Tuesday, that Canada had raised its terror level in response to intelligence reports of "general chatter" from groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda.
And it was just two days earlier, on Monday, that a self-radicalized "lone wolf" Canadian man ran down two soldiers, killing one. It's believed that both the Monday and Wednesday perpetrators were Muslim converts. Both perpetrators had previously been identified by Canadian authorities as potential terrorists.
Last month, in mid-September, ISIS issued statements encouraging exactly this kind of lone wolf attack. One statement called for attacks against Egyptian security forces, who are "the guards of the Jews, the soldiers of [Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi], the new Pharaoh of Egypt":
"Rig the roads with explosives for them. Attack their bases. Raid their homes. Cut off their heads. Do not let them feel secure."
A similar statement called for lone wolf attacks on other countries, including Australia, France, Canada, the United States, and others:
"If you can kill a disbelieving American or European — especially the spiteful and filthy French — or an Australian, or a Canadian, or any other disbeliever from the disbelievers waging war, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State ... kill him in any manner or way however it may be."
Wednesday's attack is expected cause some level of panic among ordinary Canadians. According to one commentator, "Canada will be a different country on Thursday than it was on Wednesday." BBC and Globe and Mail (Toronto) and Willmiot (22-Sep) and Toronto Star
Egypt has politically expressed its complete commitment to the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), saying that "the symbolism of a united coalition is very important," but has declared that it will not dispatch military forces to participate in its operations, nor participate in air strikes.
There are several reasons:
Egypt is taking a neutral stance against the al-Assad regime, while Saudi Arabia says that the al-Assad regime is illegitimate and must be removed. Memri
In an article last month ( "3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war"), I used a Generational Dynamics analysis to outline how the Mideast is realigning itself around a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the United Arab Emirates (UAE) plus Bahrain versus the Palestinians plus Qatar plus Turkey, with vitriolicly anti-American Iran increasingly aligning itself with America and the West.
Although Turkey and the Arab countries on both sides are all nominally part of the anti-ISIS coalition, Turkey and Qatar have not been participating actively because they have completely different objectives from the other countries:
Qatar and Turkey are currently engaging in intense talks on "Issues of security cooperation between the two countries and enhancing coordination between ministries." It's not known whether major changes in policy are being discussed. Hurriyet (Ankara)
Even if it wanted to, it's doubtful that Turkey could mount an effective cross-border operation against ISIS forces around Kobani or anywhere else for that matter. The first problem is that the army is very top heavy, and has not carried out any significant restructuring or reforms for over 50 years.
Also, Turkey's army is tied down on other fronts:
So, it's highly likely that Turkey's support for the US-led coalition will remain rhetorical, especially if there is no agreement regarding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's removal from power. Today's Zaman (Ankara)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Oct-14 World View -- Canada in shock over Ottawa shootings thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Oct-2014)
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Violent rioting breaks out in Sierra Leone town over Ebola case
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Hong Kong residents were promised fully free and fair elections when Britain returned the British colony over to China in 1997. China has consistently stalled on the promise, triggering the protests of the last few weeks. These protests have been mostly peaceful, but there have been some clashes with police in the last few days.
Hong Kong's Beijing-appointed leader Leung Chun-ying (CY Leung) made a gaffe on Monday evening during remarks to reports. In attempting to explaining why free and fair elections would be a mistake, he said the following:
"If it’s entirely a numbers game and numeric representation, then obviously you’d be talking to the half of the people in Hong Kong who earn less than $1,800 a month."
The implication, according to press reports, is that if poor people were allowed to vote, then Hong Kong would turn into a welfare state where poor people would gain more influence in politics.
This remark is certain to infuriate protesters, as one of their issues is that many Hong Kong families are poor because of deteriorating economic opportunities, and one of the developed world's largest wealth gaps. According to a protest leader, "It reflects the distrust the authorities have of the people, and it also reflects how the current political system is biased for the rich and against the poor." AFP and Diplomat and Finance Asia (Hong Kong)
Sierra Leone officials have imposed a curfew on an eastern town after two people were killed in clashes between rioting youth and the police. The clashes were triggered when a health authorities tried to take away a 90 year old grandmother suspected of having Ebola. A dispute erupted, resulting in gunfire and rioting.
As we wrote several days ago ( "19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk"), the Ebola crisis is interacting with other geopolitical issues, particularly causing instability wherever it appears. Things are probably going to get increasingly ugly in the next few months. Reuters and BBC
If you live in Liberia or Sierra Leone and you go to a hospital because you think you might be coming down with Ebola, then there's a good chance that you'll be turned away because there are no more beds available. You'll have to return home, where your family will try to care for you, and may become infected themselves.
Health officials are hoping that Ebola survivors can play a crucial role in helping newly infected patients survive, thus bringing down the 50-70% death rate.
The blood of an Ebola survivor will have antibodies that can fight Ebola. Doctors can then take a sample of their blood and turn it into a treatment called serum - by removing the red blood cells but keeping the important antibodies - for other patients. Officials are saying that serum may be available in Liberia within weeks.
Survivors can become caregivers for newly infected patients, thus sparing the patients' family members from risking infection. It's believed that Ebola survivors are henceforth immune to the Ebola virus. However, some doctors say that this immunity is not 100% certain, since the Ebola virus may mutate into a different form that defeats the immunity.
One reason for the high death rate for Ebola is that patients become dehydrated from sweating, diarrhea and vomiting. It turns out that just drinking water is not an effective way for a dehydrated patient to rehydrate, and it just increases the volume of diarrhea.
For this reason, low-cost packets of electrolyte rehydration salts are being made available throughout Liberia and Sierra Leone. When mixed with water, these become an effective oral rehydration solution (ORS).
The problem with an ORS is that the patient has to drink about 5 liters (quarts) of the ORS per day, and the ORS tastes awful. For that reason, most ORS solutions are treated with glucose, to create a sweeter taste.
If a patient comes down with Ebola symptoms at home, taking an ORS right away, before the body becomes too dehydrated, is an effective way to increase the probability of survival. BBC and Pharmacy Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Oct-14 World View -- Hong Kong leader suggests that the poor shouldn't be allowed to vote thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Oct-2014)
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Reversing policies, Turkey and U.S. escalate involvement in Kobani
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Indonesia has tried to stay out of the fight that China was having with Vietnam and the Philippines over the former's annexation of the latter's territories. Indonesia could do that because, even though China was claiming Indonesia's Natuna Islands in its annexation of the entire South China Sea, China's navy was too far away from Indonesia to be of concern.
There's little doubt that China would like to annex Indonesia's Natuna Islands, whose waters are rich with fish and which is adjacent to the East Natuna gas field, one of the world's largest untapped reserves.
China's increased belligerence, and the substantial growth of its naval and air power in the South China Sea, have caused Indonesia to speed its naval buildup, although so far it's still far more modest than the buildup in Vietnam and the Philippines, and it has improved its relations with Japan and the United States.
In fact, the last few years have seen an "amphibious forces creep," a growth in naval capabilities of several south Asian countries, including Burma (Myanmar), Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia. One major trigger for this buildup was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which exposed these countries as woefully unequipped to engage in disaster relief operations. Although much of the naval buildup has been labeled as being for humanitarian reasons, the last few years have seen a buildup of offensive naval forces to counter China's belligerence. The Diplomat and Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and Reuters (25-Aug)
Turkey's government on Monday may a surprise announcement that it will allow Kurdish peshmerga fighters from Iraq travel through Turkey to Kobani, Syria, to fight against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).
Note: Peshmerga = Kurdish militias in Iraq. PYD = Kurdish militias in Syria. PKK = Kurdish anti-government insurgents in Turkey.
On Sunday evening, the White House announced that it was air-dropping weapons to the Kurdish militias fighting in Kobani:
"So as you know, this evening, our time, overnight in Syria, the United States military delivered weapons, ammunition and medical supplies to the forces fighting against ISIL on the ground in Kobani. These supplies were provided by Kurdish authorities in Iraq, and they were focused on enabling forces -- including, of course, Kurdish forces in Syria -- to continue their fight against ISIL."
The U.S. announcement appears to be an escalation, though the White House that it's within the scope of previous announcements.
However, Turkey's announcement is a clear reversal of policy, as the government has recently said that it would provide no help whatsoever to the PYD, equating them to the terrorist PKK.
The two announcements appear to be a face-saving way for both sides to provide aid to the Kurdish militants in Kobani. The U.S. isn't shipping American weapons to Kobani; it's shipping weapons obtained from the Iraqi peshmerga. Turkey isn't allowing Turkish Kurds into Kobani; it's allowing Iraqi Kurds into Kobani. Hurriyet (Ankara) and White House
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Oct-14 World View -- Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Oct-2014)
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China blames Hong Kong protests on 'external forces'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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China's hand-picked Hong Kong leader, Leung Chun-ying, is saying that the pro-democracy protests are "out of control," and that they're being supported by "external forces," echoing Chinese state media that "anti-China forces" such as the United States are manipulating the protesters.
A week ago, the protesters and the government were going to have talks to determine a political solution, and the demonstrators, who had previously numbered in the tens of thousands, had dwindled down to only a few hundred. It looked like the demonstrations would fizzle out completely.
However, then the talks broke down, and Leung announced that there was zero probability that China would back down and allow free, open elections in 2017. This brought thousands of protesters back out -- not as many as before, but still a sizeable number. Although the three weeks of protests have been mostly peaceful, there have been clashes with police for the last four nights, Protesters accused the police of using "deadly" force, with some demonstrators suffering head wounds, fractures and bruising, and others carried away on stretchers.
On Sunday night, Leung blamed infiltration of the protest movement by forces outside of Hong Kong:
"I shan’t go into details, but this is not entirely a domestic movement.The Hong Kong government and the police force have exercised extreme tolerance and patience. That’s what we have done and what we will continue to do."
But he also vowed to "restore law and order in Hong Kong as soon as possible."
However, protesters claim that the protests are "purely by citizens, purely by those who live in Hong Kong." According to a protest leader:
"To make a statement that there are foreign powers infiltrating this movement right before the discussions, is evidence that [Leung] is hoping to crack down on the entire movement.As the chief executive of Hong Kong, he should probably have solid evidence before making such a statement. He can't just say there is foreign infiltration and this is really irresponsible."
Despite the protests, talks between the government and protesters are set to resume on Tuesday.
More broadly, China's government is increasingly cracking down on dissent throughout China, what it calls "subversive ideas." In a memo, the Communist Party warned of "seven perils" that were taking root in the country, including the following five:
Australian/AFP and BBC and Nation Multimedia
In recent months, the price of a barrel of oil has fallen from about $110 down to $80-85. Global economies have been softening, reducing the demand for oil. And the supply of oil has been surging, with U.S. shale oil production ("fracking") and supplies from other countries growing.
Oil revenues have been a major source of foreign reserves for Russia, and the falling oil prices have affected Russia's economy. According to Russia's president Vladimir Putin:
"If oil prices remain at $80 per barrel, it will lead to production collapse. Budgets of all major oil-producing countries are based on the price of more than $80, close to $90 per barrel."
Russia is not the only economy suffering because of low oil prices. Many Mideast countries have hugely increased public spending after growing instability from the Arab spring. Venezuela and Iran similarly depend on high oil prices.
The U.S. economy is also affected. It's true that low oil prices translate into lower gas/petrol prices, but it's also true that much U.S. oil production becomes unprofitable as oil prices fall to $80.
This reality is affecting politics in 12 member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Smaller producers want Saudi Arabia to cut oil production, in order to force prices back up. But the Saudis are actually increasing oil production, because they want to try to put America's oil fracking production out of business. Ria Novosti (Moscow) and Guardian (London) and Forbes
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Oct-14 World View -- Vladimir Putin: Global economy will collapse with oil at $80 per barrel thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Oct-2014)
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Ebola and the Clash of Civilizations world war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Today, the biggest threat to US security by far is China, which is preparing as rapidly as possible for a preemptive massive missile attack on American cities, aircraft carriers, and military installations. There are also terrorist threats to the U.S., but what we now call terrorism will simply dissolve and be subsumed into World War III. For example, the ISIS "terrorist" group will join with the Sunni component of the coming sectarian Sunni vs Shia war in the Mideast, while the Hezbollah "terrorist" group will join the Shia component. The Shia component will be allied with Iran, Russia and India, while the Sunni component will be allied with Pakistan and China. In that sense, what we now call terrorism is really just a side show to what will be a number of regional and global existential wars over the next 10-15 years. There's no guarantee that the United States will survive.
The above Generational Dynamics assessment, or something like it, might have been written at any time in the last few years.
But now there's major new factor that has to be considered: The Ebola pandemic. It's now clear that Ebola will play an important role in the world in the next few years, and will change the course of history. Ebola will spread in Africa beyond West Africa. It will spread first into war zones, such as Syria, and it will spread into densely packed slums in megacities. For that reason, it will a big part of the coming world war. I fully expect Ebola to have spread around the world by 2030, killing hundreds of millions of people.
In 2004, I identified the "The six most dangerous regions in world" based on a Generational Dynamics analysis. My conclusion at the time was that a new world war would be started by a regional war in one of those six regions, or by a global financial crisis or by a global bird flu pandemic.
I incorporated those six region/items in a "Global Conflict Risk Assessment" graphic that I began posting on the Home Page of my web site. Its purpose was to encapsulate the current state of the world, and the likelihood of world conflict. The intention was that the graphic would be updated only rarely, as world events require. The original graphic, posted on October 1, 2004 was:
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Note that in 2004, I considered the most dangerous of all to be the Russian Caucasus, because of the recent Beslan massacre and because ... wait for it! ... Russia's president Vladimir Putin was showing extreme belligerence toward Ukraine. That was ten years ago. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
There have been seven changes in the ten years since then, the last one on January 1, 2013:
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If you'd like to review all the Conflict Risk Graphics in chronological order, along with brief explanations of why each risk level was assigned, see Global Conflict Risk Graphics
Today I'm updating the graphic for the first time since the beginning of 2013. The updated graphic is as follows:
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The two most significant changes is that two items have crossed over from "High Risk" to "Active":
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been under a great deal of criticism from politicians trying to deflect the blame from their own failings. One common criticism is that WHO did not react quickly enough after the first Ebola outbreak in Guinea, and didn't even realize the severity of the problem. In fact, WHO has conducted its own internal investigation, and found that "it botched attempts to stop the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, blaming factors including incompetent staff and a lack of information," and that they should have realized that "traditional infectious disease containment methods wouldn't work in a region with porous borders and broken health systems," according to the AP
In fact, the Ebola crisis is the moment that the World Health Organization was created for. It was created by the survivors of World War II -- and it was also created by the survivors of the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic that killed tens of millions of people. The WHO should have reacted immediately on the Ebola breakout, and done everything possible to make sure that the mistakes of 1918 would not be repeated.
But anyone who understands generational theory knows that that's not how the world works. The survivors of a crisis, any crisis, spend their lives implementing institutions and measures to guarantee that the same crisis will not happen again, but once those survivors are gone, the generations of survivors that come after will simply believe that no such thing, in this case something like the 1918 epidemic, could ever happen again, because we're all smarter now and so those old-fashioned crises are no longer possible.
The critical generational event occurred in 1976, 58 years after the 1918 epidemic, when the "swine flu" panic occurred. The public became hysterical over the possibility of a new flu pandemic. Responding to public demands, the government prepared millions of doses of swine flu vaccine. The pandemic amounted to nothing, and the whole thing was a political fiasco.
So the 1976 swine flu fiasco served the purpose of discrediting anyone who worried about a new epidemic. This generational change in attitude continues today, and explains why WHO "botched" the Ebola investigation. (For further discussion of the 58-year hypothesis, see "The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki." from 2008.)
In fact, it's not clear to me that WHO could have stopped the Ebola pandemic even if they had been sufficiently alarmed when it started. In the previous section, we quoted WHO as blaming itself for not realizing that "traditional infectious disease containment methods wouldn't work in a region with porous borders and broken health systems." Those porous borders and broken health systems would have been the same whether WHO was alarmed or not.
There have been several outbreaks of Ebola, mostly in Zaire (now renamed to Congo). In those cases, the outbreaks were confined to a few small, remote villages, and the outbreaks were controlled by blocking travel into or out of the affected villages, and then letting the pandemic "burn itself out," in the words of one analyst I heard. This means that everyone in the village became infected. Most people died, but the ones who survived could rebuild their villages and be immune to Ebola for the rest of their lives.
Well, whether that kind of containment could have been accomplished when it first broke out in Guinea is not known to me, but it's certainly true that containment will not work now.
The mathematics of the published figures is irresistible. There are 10,000 infections now in West Africa, and the number of infections doubles every 3-4 weeks. That means that there will be millions of infections by Summer or Fall 2015. And there's nothing that can stop it from spreading beyond West Africa - Côte d'Ivoire is particularly vulnerable.
Furthermore, 50-70% of those infected die. This means that within a couple of years or so, more than half the population of West Africa will die of Ebola. The same will be true of other countries that the spread of Ebola reaches.
What about a vaccine? I have not heard anyone say that a vaccine will be available in less than a year or two in large quantities. Even if a vaccine were available today, could it be administered to, say, the population of Côte d'Ivoire in time to save it from the spread of Ebola? I would think not.
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Lagos has a fairly sophisticated health system. When an Ebola patient arrived by plane in Lagos in July, there was a swift reaction. Through contact tracing, officials located some 900 people who were potentially exposed to the disease. There were finally 19 confirmed cases of Ebola and eight deaths, but the infection was stopped in Nigeria.
But now imagine someone with Ebola arriving on the train pictured above in Lagos, Nigeria, and visiting friends and family. Suppose he infected a couple of other people, and before anyone realized what was going on, people with whom he'd been in contact left town on the same train. This is not an unlikely scenario. How would that Ebola outbreak be contained?
Passengers aren't identified on a train the way they are on a plane. So contact tracing would be impossible. If there were 900 people potentially exposed, there would be no way to identify and find them, and they would go on infecting other people.
Once again, this is not an unlikely scenario. It's fairly certain to happen, and it's fairly certain to continue happening.
Megacities are particularly vulnerable, because there is public transportation and anonymity. The 20 largest megacities in the world, according to Demographia (PDF) are:
POPULATIONS OF WORLD'S 20 LARGEST MEGACITIES
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| 1 | Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan | 37,555,000 |
| 2 | Jakarta (Jabotabek), Indonesia | 29,959,000 |
| 3 | Delhi, DL-HR-UP, India | 24,134,000 |
| 4 | Seoul-Incheon, South Korea | 22,992,000 |
| 5 | Manila, Philippines | 22,710,000 |
| 6 | Shanghai, SHG-ZJ-JS, China | 22,650,000 |
| 7 | Karachi, Pakistan | 21,585,000 |
| 8 | New York, NY-NJ-CT, United States | 20,661,000 |
| 9 | Mexico City, Mexico | 20,300,000 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo, Brazil | 20,273,000 |
| 11 | Beijing, BJ, China | 19,277,000 |
| 12 | Guangzhou-Foshan, GD, China | 18,316,000 |
| 13 | Mumbai, MAH, India | 17,672,000 |
| 14 | Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, Japan | 17,234,000 |
| 15 | Moscow, Russia | 15,885,000 |
| 16 | Los Angeles, CA, United States | 15,250,000 |
| 17 | Cairo, Egypt | 15,206,000 |
| 18 | Bangkok, Thailand | 14,910,000 |
| 19 | Kolkota, WB, India | 14,896,000 |
| 20 | Dhaka, Bangladesh | 14,816,000 |
----------------------------------------------------------------
However, what may be more important than total population is population density. The following table lists the most densely populated cities in the world, with a few United States cities added to the end of the table:
#PEOPLE/SQ MILE IN WORLD'S MOST DENSELY POPULATED CITIES
------------------------------------------------------------
| 1 | Dhaka, Bangladesh | 44,000 |
| 2 | Hyderabad, Pakistan | 40,700 |
| 3 | Mumbai, MAH, India | 32,300 |
| 4 | Kalyan, MAH, India | 30,300 |
| 5 | Chittagong, Bangladesh | 28,400 |
| 6 | Vijayawada. AP, India | 27,900 |
| 7 | Hong Kong, China: Hong Kong SAR | 25,700 |
| 8 | Malegaon, HAM, India | 24,700 |
| 9 | Macau, China: Macau SAR | 23,700 |
| 10 | Aligarh, UP, India | 23,500 |
| 11 | Karachi, Pakistan | 22,800 |
| 12 | Ranchi, JHA, India | 21,200 |
| 13 | Surat, GUJ, India | 21,000 |
| 14 | Madurai, TN, India | 20,700 |
| 15 | Gwalior, MP, India | 20,700 |
| 16 | Asansol, WB, India | 20,500 |
| 17 | Salem, TN, India | 20,000 |
| 18 | Ahmedabad, GUJ, India | 19,800 |
| 18 | Rajkot, GUJ, India | 19,800 |
| 20 | Kathmandu, Nepal | 19,400 |
| 37 | Kinshasa, Congo (Dem. Rep.) | 16,700 |
| 39 | Bogota, Colombia | 16,600 |
| 40 | Gaza, Palestine | 16,500 |
| 43 | Alexandria, Egypt | 15,600 |
| 55 | Kano, Nigeria | 15,000 |
| 81 | Lagos, Nigeria | 13,800 |
| 209 | Mexico City, Mexico | 9,800 |
| 564 | Leicester, United Kingdom | 4,700 |
| 794 | Los Angeles, CA, United States | 2,400 |
| 808 | San Francisco-San Jose, CA, United States | 2,100 |
| 823 | Honolulu, HI, United States | 1,900 |
| 823 | Las Vegas, NV, United States | 1,900 |
| 829 | Miami, FL, United States | 1,800 |
| 830 | New York, NY-NJ-CT, United States | 1,800 |
------------------------------------------------------------
Of course, a city doesn't have to be on either of these lists to be vulnerable. Even a small, densely populated neighborhood in an otherwise sparsely populated city could be vulnerable.
Either way, the point is that megacities and densely populated cities are going to be vulnerable to Ebola outbreaks, and many of these outbreaks will occur before it's all over.
There have been a small number of Ebola cases in the United States so far, and what I've learned by watching them unfold is that controlling them requires the following:
None of these things will be possible in a war zone, where health services will have broken down, and where health workers will be vulnerable to gunfire and bombs. That means that once even a small Ebola outbreak occurs in war zone, there will generally be no way to keep it from spreading.
I've been writing for years about the coming Clash of Civilization world war where India, Russia and Iran will be our allies versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslims. Now we have to add the "Ebola factor," which will interact with everything else going on in the world. Ebola outbreaks will destabilize more regions of the world, leading to more wars, and war zones will be the perfect places where Ebola outbreaks can spread.
During the time of the Black Death plague of the 1340s, attacking armies would use catapults to hurl dead soldiers over the walls of walled cities, so that the citizens of those cities would also die of the plague. Maybe in the next few years, we'll be seeing some of those catapults again.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Oct-2014)
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Investors cheer as Wall Street gains 263 points on Friday
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Nigeria's government announced on Friday that they're reached a truce with the Boko Haram terrorist group, which has been terrorizing the entire northeast, as well as major cities up and down the country, for years. It's now the six month anniversary of the abduction of 219 schoolgirls on April 16.
In announcing the truce, Nigeria's Chief of Defense Staff, Air Marshal Alex Badeh gave almost no details and took no questions. Another government official said that the deal would free the 219 abducted schoolgirls. He said that more talks would take place to work out exactly how the girls would be released.
However, multiple analysts in Nigeria are casting doubt on the credibility of the deal. For one thing, there's been no announcement from anyone in Boko Haram. Some analysts have even claimed that the Boko Haram militant who brokered the deal was an imposter, with no connection to the Boko Haram leadership.
According to one Nigerian columnist:
"I guess Nigerians are tired and, as such, any news that offers respite on this protracted war between Nigeria & #BokoHaram is always welcome. Sadly anybody that demised(sic) such good news becomes Nigeria’s enemy. But the leadership of #BH are said to be miffed that a nation of the profile and magnitude of Nigeria, with high level of intelligent people, is being easily encased in deceit and nobody seems to be asking tough questions.What is most worrying here is, government at the highest level and the intelligence formations in #Nigeria has embraced this 'good news.' This shows lack of understanding of the reality that this is an ideology that can only be neutralized after long hard work that is yet to start.
It also appears that government is more interested in shadows and bubbles, than in substance and clear headed engagement with the #BokoHaram ideology."
The News (Nigeria) and BBC and AFP
An onslaught of dozens of airstrikes by U.S. warplanes in the last few days has halted the advance of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) on the Syrian town of Kobani, and permitted the Kurdish defenders of Kobani to drive back the ISIS in some, but not all, of Kobani. According to Kurdish officials, the Kurdish defenders were giving the coordinates of the ISIS militants to the U.S. to identify bombing targets.
As of last week, it seemed that ISIS was on the verge of overrunning the Kurds defending Kobani, which is on the border with Turkey, while Turkey's armed forces simply watched the slaughter from tanks in the hills overlooking Kobani. Turkey has been under heavy international criticism for doing nothing to stop the slaughter, but has demanded that the U.S. agree to attack targets assets of the Bashar al-Assad regime before Turkey will commit troops to Kobani.
Analysts, including U.S. administration analysts, are not claiming that this is the end of the battle of Kobani. ISIS has been sending in reinforcements, and they seem determined to overrun Kobani in order to humiliate the U.S. administration and its airstrike strategy. Reuters and World Bulletin (Turkey)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 263.17 points on Friday, continuing a pattern of wild ups and downs during the last couple of weeks. Some analysts were euphoric, while others were just relieved. As I explained two days ago, these wild swings signal a very dangerous time when a crash might be approaching. This would be the case if the amplitude of the swings continues to increase in the next few days, though not necessarily if the swings settle down. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and selloff. Forbes
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Oct-14 World View -- Nigerians skeptical of deal with Boko Haram to release abducted schoolgirls thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Oct-2014)
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Venezuela scores anti-U.S. coup by winning Security Council seat
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In a major humiliation to Turkey, the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday selected Spain instead of Turkey to hold a non-permanent Security Council seat in 2015. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan had been lobbying hard for several months to win approval for the seat. Last month, Erdogan sucked up to several emerging market countries by promising to open up the five permanent member seats to other countries:
"The world is bigger than five. The fate of a country should not be in the hands of the US, France, Russia, China or the UK."A rotating system which would allow 193 member countries to be represented at the Council should be formed. There should be no notion of permanent membership; every country should have the chance to be represented."
There was even a posh party on Wednesday, the night before the vote.
But apparently all the sucking up did no good. The non-permanent seats are divided by groups or regions, and Turkey is in the "Western European and Others Group," and within that group, Turkey was competing with Spain and New Zealand for two seats. New Zealand won approval for one of the seats, and it was widely expected that Turkey would get the other seat. So it was a surprise to everyone when Turkey got only 60 votes in the General Assembly, and Spain won the seat with 132 votes in the secret ballot.
Turkey was apparently caught by surprise because of an intense lobbying effort by some of his former allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Egypt and Saudi Arabia led the anti-Turkey effort because of Erdogan's support for Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt and Saudi Arabia consider to be a terrorist organization.
But the main force behind the anti-Turkey vote was Turkey's Syria policy. Leaders in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are fuming at Turkey's unwillingness to fully back the military coalition against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). One European diplomat was quoted as saying,
"I thought they [Turkey] would lose votes, but the scale of their loss is surprising to me, very much so. It seems that Turkey was killed by the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council]."
Turkey's Syria policy -- and its frequent calls to unseat Syria's president Bashar al-Assad -- pulled additional votes away from Turkey, including those of Syria and Iran. And Greece, Turkey's traditional enemy since ancient times, is also said to have lobbied against Turkey.
Since the voting was conducted by a secret ballot, it's not known whether the United States voted for or against Turkey. Business Insider and Newsweek and Middle East Eye
Venezuela was unopposed in its regional group, and received 181 votes in the 193-member General Assembly, more than enough to get a non-permanent Security Council seat in 2015, despite ten abstentions. Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro said:
"This is the victory of Hugo Chávez Frias. Chavez keeps winning battles in the world ... It's a day in which the world has supported our fatherland."
Venezuela is expected to back allies Iran, Syria and Russia, and to take other anti-American positions. Since Venezuela, Syria, Iran and Russia are all such paragons of human rights, I'm sure we can expect a much more moral U.N. Security Council next year. Foreign Policy and World Bulletin (Turkey)
As we reported two weeks ago, the leaders of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) have decided to switch sides and support the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) instead the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (Nusra Front) in Syria. ( "6-Oct-14 World View -- ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support")
On Monday, the TTP leaders went beyond support for ISIS by declaring full allegiance to ISIS, repudiating their previous pledges of allegiance to al-Qaeda. According to Shahidullah Shahid, now a former TTP leader:
"I declare allegiance to the Caliph of Muslims, Amirul Momineen Abu Bakar al Baghdadi al Qarshi al Hussaini. I will listen and follow his every instruction whatever the situation may have been. This allegiance is neither from the TTP or its chief, Mullah Fazlullah. This is only from me and five leaders."
This statement hastens the disintegration of both the TTP and al-Qaeda, and signals the increasing strength of ISIS. Dawn (Pakistan) and Tribune (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Oct-14 World View -- In humiliation, Turkey loses Security Council seat over Syria policy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Oct-2014)
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Wild stock market swings could signal coming Wall St plunge
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly fell over 450 points on Wednesday, before cutting losses and ending the day "only" 173 points down. Traders were influenced by a welter of bad data -- a retail sales index and a manufacturing index falling significantly more than economists had predicted.
European stocks fell to a ten month low, with index values falling 2-3% across the board. For the past few months, Europe has been increasingly in a deflationary spiral, with the inflation rate now below 0.1%.
Traders are also concerned that the Ebola crisis will harm the global economy.
Possibly more significant are the wild swings that have characterized the stock market during the last couple of weeks. Economist Robert Shiller, appearing on CNBC last week on Friday, said that he was concerned about the wild swings, and that they happened in 2008, 2007, and 1929, just prior to the crash. So if, for example, stocks gain 500 points tomorrow, then it would be cheered as good news, but in fact it would just be a large swing upwards. The next one might be a downward swing of 1000 points.
At the very least, the wild swings signal a time of danger. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and selloff. The S&P 500 Price/Earnings index is around 19, much higher than the historical average of 14, indicating a huge stock market bubble. A crash has to happen sooner or later, and it's possible that these wild swings are signaling that this is the time. Reuters and Bloomberg and Telegraph (London)
Greece's Prime Minister Antonis Samaras sought to restore public calm on Wednesday, as stocks on the Athens Stock Exchange plunged 6.25%. Socks have fallen 23.24% since January.
Even more significant, the yields (interest rates) on Greece's ten-year bonds spiked sharply upward to 7.73%. This means that if Greece wants to borrow money on the open market, Greece will have to pay 7.73% interest, which is not affordable.
Long-time readers will recall the drama of the various European bailout events of Greece in the 2010-2012 time frame. See, for example, "28-Nov-12 World View -- Europe's new charade in Greece's bailout announcement", in which Greece was given a new 44 billion euro bailout loan, and Samaras said:
"A very grey, a very dark period for Greece officially ended yesterday and it has ended for good. We Greeks were made for tough times, and when the going gets tough, it brings out the best in us."
Promises like this were never going to be kept, as I said repeatedly, and as pretty much everyone basically knew. Underneath the "tough times" rhetoric was a Pollyannaish assumption that Europe and the world would return to the "growth" of the mid-2000s decade credit and real estate bubbles, when anyone could borrow money to do anything. That was never going to happen again, but it was this fantastical assumption that led to the rosy predictions that Greece's dark days were over.
It was always just a matter of time before Greece's bailout would fail, and it appears that the time is now. Greece is facing both an economic crisis and a political crisis. The radical left-wing political party Syriza is becoming increasingly popular in the polls, with the result that the government may collapse in the next few months, forcing new elections, bringing far left communist politics back to the European political stage.
Syriza wants to renege on the bailout money that Greece owes to Europe. This would push Greece's government into bankruptcy, and push bond yields up well into double or even triple digits, making it almost impossible for Greece to borrow money. Kathimerini (Athens) and AP and Business Insider
The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell 5% on Wednesday to $81.84, well below the $100-120 range of the past few years. Two reasons are being given for the startling collapse in oil prices.
First, the supply of oil is surging. In the U.S., shale oil production ("fracking") has been growing rapidly. Non-OPEC countries have been exporting more oil. Canada has replaced Saudi Arabia as the largest source of imported oil to the U.S.
Second, the demand for oil is falling. Sluggish economies around the world mean less oil is needed, and even China's demand is softening.
Generational Dynamics predicts a global deflationary spiral, and the falling price of oil is part of that. Countries like Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which depend on income from oil sales, will be suffering economic woes that will translate into a general global slowdown. CNBC and Fortune and Forbes
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Oct-14 World View -- Stocks plunge in Greece as its financial crisis is renewed thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Oct-2014)
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Turkey-France meeting signals new confusion in Turkey's Syria policy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In a seemingly bizarre twist to the history of America's 2003 ground invasion of Iraq, which was widely supported at the time, but widely despised later when weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) were not found, an extensive report by the New York Times reveals that Saddam Hussein did, in fact, have large quantities of WMDs, many left over from the past.
The irony, of course, is that the NY Times led the loony left to oppose the Iraq war, and was openly aiding and abetting the enemy, in a manner that I considered to be treasonous. (See, for example, "NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman shows ignorance and evasiveness about al-Qaeda in Iraq" from 2007.)
The NY Times constantly printed misinformation designed to harm the United States and the Bush Administration. They predicted that President Bush's "surge" would fail, and events proved that they were historically wrong.
As I wrote several months ago ( "18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq"), if the Bush administration had not ordered the ground invasion, then Iran would have continued to believe that Saddam had WMDs, and would have aggressively begun its own WMD program.
Now the NY Times tells us that Saddam had WMDs after all, which means that the Iraq ground invasion was apparently fully justified.
The new concern is that the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) may also find, or have already found, other caches of WMDs for their own use. NY Times
On Sunday, the U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice said that Turkey had "made a commitment that they will in the first instance allow the US and its partners to use Turkish bases and territory," meaning that U.S. warplanes on bombing runs into Syria could take off from and return to Turkey's Incirlik. On Monday, Turkish officials said that Rice was mistaken, and that no such agreement had been reached.
This is just the next in the unending series of blunders and missteps by the foreign policy team of Barack Obama, John Kerry, and Susan Rice, who might ironically be called "the gang that can't shoot straight."
But in this case it also highlights the chaos in Turkey's own policy towards Syria, as Kobani appears to be close to falling to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), despite American-led airstrikes.
Turkey president Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to meet with France's president François Hollande, as soon as the parties can arrange a suitable date, Hollande has expressed support for Erdogan's plan to establish a no-fly zone in Syria, directed at the air force of the Bashar al-Assad regime. Erdogan and Turkey have been internationally isolated over it Syria stance. America and Western countries have refused to support the no-fly zone because it would put the coalition in conflict with al-Assad's forces, and the U.S. has said that defeating ISIS is more important than defeating al-Assad. This is a clear disagreement between Turkey and the U.S., and it may now be the case that France is going to be on the side of Turkey.
Turkey may be opposed to the entire U.S. policy in Syria. Erdogan doesn't like ISIS, but if they're willing to fight al-Assad, he'd like to let them. Erdogan doesn't like the people who live in Kobani, because they're Kurds, and Turkish Kurds, in the form of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fought a 30-year insurgency in Turkey, though the insurgency is currently supposedly in the midst of a "peace process." In fact, Erdogan refers to both ISIS and the Kurds as being terrorists. So, really, Erdogan doesn't really care if ISIS overruns Kobani and massacres the Kurds or not.
Erdogan's statement of equivalence between ISIS and the PKK is being criticized by his political opponents within Turkey. A pro-Kuridish political opponent, Selahattin DemirtaS, is pointing out some chaotic contradictions in Erdogan's policies:
"If you think it [the PKK] is same as ISIS, why are you seeking a settlement [peace process]? Why is the state holding talks with the PKK? ISIS is no party to have negotiations with. If PKK is like that, you should not have held talks with it. How will you bring back people from the mountains with such an attitude? ...You [Erdogan] said that Syria was Turkey's issue, as well as Gaza, Bosnia and Somali, and defended military action there; however, with [Kurdish] Kobani, you said otherwise. If Kobani is not Turkey's issue, then we [Kurds] are not living in Turkey. If this is your stance when my brothers are threatened by a group of rapists and barbarians [ISIS], then you are not our government."
In fact, the "peace process" with the PKK may be over anyway. There is growing fury among Kurds that Turkey is willing to permit a massacre of Kurds in Kobani. Turkey's Kurdish population rioted last week in cities across the country, and 35 people died in clashes with police. And on Tuesday, Turkey's warplanes bombed PKK bases in southeastern Turkey, on the Iraq border. These are Turkey's first bombing raids since the "peace process" began two years ago, and probably signal its demise.
It's possible that the fall of Kobani to ISIS will trigger widespread Kurdish riots in Turkey, forcing Erdogan to fight either ISIS in Syria or Kurds in Turkey. Cihan (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Today's Zaman (Ankara) and VOA
The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to issue warnings to alert the world of the impending Ebola disaster. On Tuesday, a WHO official warned that by mid-December, there could be up to 10,000 new Ebola cases per week, up from 1,000 new cases per week currently.
This is consistent with previous projections that the number of cases has been growing exponentially, doubling every 2-3 weeks. The WHO official didn't bother to project that 10,000 figure forward, by pointing out that it will be 100,000 per week within a couple more months, and continue to grow.
Who also estimated that the death rate was 70%, up from previous estimates of 50% -- meaning that 70% of those who get infected are dying. This could mean that 60-70% of Liberia's population will be dead within a year or so, with the resulting global economic crises and probable wars, as we described yesterday. CBS News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Oct-14 World View -- NY Times reveals Saddam Hussein had large quantities of WMDs thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Oct-2014)
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WHO: Ebola threatens the 'very survival' of countries
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Australia's prime minister Tony Abbott has been one of the world's most vocal critics for Russia's president Vladimir Putin over the downing of an airliner by Russians in East Ukraine using a missile system supplied by Russia. Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was shot down in July, killing all 298 passengers and crew, 28 of whom were Australians. Abbott and Putin are expected to meet at the upcoming G20 meeting next month.
Abbott said the following on Monday:
"Look, I'm going to shirt-front Mr Putin - you bet I am. I'm going to be saying to Mr Putin, Australians were murdered and they were murdered by Russian-backed rebels using Russian supplied equipment."
In Australian rules football, a "shirt-front" is a front-on charge designed to knock an opponent to the ground. Reuters and Sydney Morning Herald
Margaret Chan, head of the World Health Organization (WHO), referred to Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea and said:
"I have never seen a health event threaten the very survival of societies and governments in already very poor countries. I have never seen an infectious disease contribute so strongly to potential state failure."
As I've written several times in the past ( "18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?"), Ebola is apparently going to continue to spread exponentially and run its course in Liberia. Within 6-9 months, probably 90% of the population will have been infected, and 50-70% of those people will not survive. So if those figures are true, and I believe they are, then Liberia will lose more than half its population by next summer. This will be a geopolitical crisis, and may trigger a war.
Will the same thing happen in the United States? No. Right now, every hospital and health care facility in the country is preparing for the say that someone walks in with symptoms of Ebola. There will certainly be cases -- perhaps dozens or even hundreds of cases. But America, like much of the rest of the world, is rapidly preparing and will be prepared.
However, as we've said repeatedly, Ebola will spread out of control to war zones, including Central African Republic, Darfur, South Sudan, Syria and Iraq. Adjacent countries will also be at risk, and that could mean that larger regions of Africa and the Mideast may be under attack from Ebola. Large megacities around the world are also at risk. However, note that the Hajj has ended, without any known cases of Ebola, as many people feared.
It appears that world will be a very different place a year from now. We can hope that, by then, some drug treatments will have started to become available, so that the spread can level off. VOA and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Oct-14 World View -- Australia's PM Tony Abbott promises to 'shirt-front' Vladimir Putin when they meet thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Oct-2014)
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Large Mideast stock market bubbles appear to be crashing
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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With the dramatic rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) in the past year, a generational competition is growing between ISIS, led by the youthful Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and headquartered in Syria, versus al-Qaeda, led by Ayman al-Zawahiri and other old geezers on the Afghanistan - Pakistan border:
The trend appears to be that ISIS is overtaking al-Qaeda, but whether that will continue is not certain. ISIS currently has a base of power only in Syria and Iraq, and not elsewhere. Just to take one possible scenario, the death of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi could change everything, and cause ISIS and al-Qaeda to merge. Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and Al Arabiya (June 2014)
China's embassy in Somalia officially reopened Sunday in Somalia's capital city Mogadishu, on the same day that a car bomb exploded outside a popular Mogadishu cafe, killing 11 people. The bomb was believed to have been detonated by remote control, and the terrorist group al-Shabaab are believed to be the perpetrators.
On Saturday, Somalia's president Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud said that al-Shabaab terrorism was coming to an end, and that his government will defeat the group "as a military force" before the end of the year. He said that its fighters are on the run from government forces and African Union forces.
Mohamoud is encouraging China to invest further in Somalia:
"China and Somalia had a very long relationship and a very historical and ancient one. And in modern times Somalia and China are friendly countries.Today Somalia is a place that can be invested. There is a lot of opportunities. This is a very rich country in terms of maritime resources, in terms of agricultural resources, in terms of livestock, and in terms of very vibrant people who are entrepreneurs and business-minded.
We will give priority to those who pioneer to invest now in Somalia than those who come after five years from now. Those first comers are the real partners for us."
Xinhua/Daily Times (Pakistan) and RBC Raxanreeb (Somalia) and CTV (Canada)
Shares in the Dubai (United Arab Emirates or UAE) stock market plunged 6.5% on Sunday, while Saudi Arabia's shares also fell by 6.5%. Qatar's stock index fell 3%. Some Mideast stock markets have been in enormous bubbles this year, with Dubai up 47% year-to-date and Egypt up 41%, so it was only a matter of time before these bubbles burst. The only question was the timing and the triggering event. U.S. stocks had a "brutal" selloff on Friday of 1.2%. As of this writing at early morning Asian time, stocks in Japan, Australia and South Korea have fallen 0.5-0.8% in early morning trading.
Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and selloff. It has to happen sooner or later.
Americans today are very prone to panic, as shown by the widespread near-panic over the two cases of Ebola in Texas. This kind of panic is typical of moods during a generational Crisis era, and it's this mood that leads to new generational financial crises and generational crisis wars. This may or may not be the time that the stock market continues to fall. Bloomberg and Reuters and Zero Hedge
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Oct-14 World View -- Al-Qaeda and ISIS struggle for global jihadi terrorist leadership thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Oct-2014)
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Concerns grow that terrorists might use Ebola as biological weapon
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, has not been seen in public since September 3. On July 8 he was shown walking with a limp, and he's missed several major events since September 3. He's gained a great deal of weight since becoming dictator after his father's death in December 2011 and that may contribute to pain in his leg. North Korean officials have been excusing his absences by saying that he was relaxing and recovering from his "discomfort."
However, Kim's disappearance has begun to look a lot more serious, since he made no appearance on Friday at the 69th anniversary of the founding of the governing Worker's Party. This is one of the major political events of the year and he did not even make a symbolic appearance. When his father, Kim Jong-il, failed to attend the same event in 2008, it was following a stroke.
Rumors abound. One rumor is that he's so visibly ill, that it couldn't be hidden even in a symbolic appearance. Another rumor is that there's a coup in progress, and he's being held prisoner. Another rumor is that he's dead, and that his 27 year old sister is taking over (though one commentator said that it's unlikely that a 70 year old army general would be willing to take orders from a 27 year old girl).
However, other government sources say that "Kim Jong-un is in total control," although he hurt his leg taking part in a military drill, and is convalescing. Korea Herald (Seoul) and Japan Times
For the last 60 years, Israel has defeated its enemies on the battlefields, but over the last two decades, Israel has consistently lost the public opinion battle. Today, almost no European political leader openly supports Israel, and calls for anti-Israeli boycotts and sanctions are increasingly heard. Even more dangerous to Israel is the increasing willingness of international courts to consider launching legal proceedings for alleged war crimes. Israel has done well in these legal proceedings so far, but one major legal loss could have a "domino effect," the eventual scope of which cannot even be guessed.
Israel's military and legal authorities are keenly aware that when a war ends, there will be international investigations of alleged wrongdoings. For these reasons, military lawyers work with military commanders during operations. In the recent Gaza war, Hamas not violated every international law it could, it also did everything possible to try to force Israel to violate international laws -- by storing weapons under and launching attacks from civilian homes, mosques, schools and hospitals. Hamas even publicly threatened its own population not to vacate areas of impending attacks, in order to force Israel to choose between conducting military operations in a civilian-rich environment (thus probably increasing civilian casualties) and foregoing the attacks entirely. Israel Defense News
Experts are warning that the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) or another terror group might decide to use Ebola as a biological weapon. It would be fairly easy. A terrorist could visit West Africa and become infected, or just leave with some infected bodily fluids. Then, before symptoms start to show, the terrorist could travel back to a target country, and then interact with as many people as possible to infect them.
However, a number of experts are skeptical that this approach will be used. An infected terrorist might accidentally infect others in his group or his family, for example. According to one expert: "For a suicide attack, strapping sticks of dynamite to your chest is far more effective." Daily Mail and Forbes
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Oct-14 World View -- Disappearance of North Korea's Kim Jong-un looks more and more serious thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Oct-2014)
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The daily needs of a single Ebola patient
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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According to televised report appearing on al-Jazeera, caring for an Ebola patient uses up the following resources every day:
That doesn't include any medications.
It's estimated that there are currently at least 8,000 people sick with Ebola in West Africa. That number is expected to be well into the tens of thousands by the end of the year, and then to double every three weeks after that. Washington Post
Steffan de Mistura, the United Nations envoy to Syria, made a highly emotional appeal to Turkey on Friday to aid the Kurds in the Syrian border city of Kobani, under attack by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). Turkey is demanding that the U.S. change its strategy in Syria to attack the Bashar al-Assad regime, as well as ISIS fighters. ( "10-Oct-14 World View -- Turkey and America play a game of 'chicken' over ISIS and Kobani")
De Mistura invoked the memory of the 1995 massacre at Srebrenica, which is the subject of trials in the Hague to convict Serb leaders of war crimes. According to de Mistura:
"You remember Srebrenica? We do. We never forgot. And probably we never forgave ourselves for that.If Kobani falls, there will be close to 400 kilometers of the Turkish border basically under control of ISIL out of 900. And what would be next? Other villages? Even Aleppo?
There are the images that we don’t want to see, we cannot see and I hope you will not be seeing of people beheaded, of the defenders and civilians."
De Mistura did not ask Turkey to send its own troops to defend Kobani. Instead, de Mistura asked Turkey to permit Kurdish fighters in Turkey to cross the border into Syria so that they can join the fight against ISIS. However, Turkey has previously indicated that no such request will be granted, because Turkey's Kurdish fighters would be members of the separatist terror group Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), with whom Turkey fought a decades long civil war. McClatchy
The United Nations Security Council is threatening the government of Central African Republic (CAR) with sanctions, because a Pakistani peacekeeper was killed on Thursday after an attack by "unknown perpetrators" in Bangui, CAR's capital city. According to a statement by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, "The secretary-general condemns in the strongest possible terms the killing and wounding of UN peacekeepers. Such acts against those who are working towards peace and security in the Central African Republic are entirely unacceptable. The perpetrators of the violence, which has also resulted in a number of civilians killed since the clashes in the capital began on 7 October, must also be brought to justice."
Several hours after Ban's denunciation on Friday, an armed group fired on U.N. peacekeepers, wounding six.
These attacks come amid a sudden increase in mob violence in Bangui, breaking a July 23 ceasefire agreement. The ceasefire was partially observed in Bangui, but CAR is a country the size of France, and fighting has continued in villages to the north and west.
This week, Bangui has seen its most significant violence in months, resulting in "many casualties." A Muslim man was lynched, decapitated and his body torched by anti-Balaka Christian fighters on Tuesday, and a Muslim Seleka fighters killed a taxi driver in revenge, sparking the latest violence. Gunfire and explosions rang out in Bangui on Thursday. In all, 25 people, excluding peacekeepers, have been wounded since the new round of fighting began.
CAR is in a generational crisis war, which will not end until it runs its course and reaches a climax.
CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era. The early stages of the new generational crisis war began last year when Muslim Seleka militias began committing atrocities. French Foreign Legion troops arrived to disarm the Seleka militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities this year, for revenge.
Recent reports indicate that both sides are regrouping for new fighting. The U.N. peacekeepers may be able to partially delay some of the fighting, but there won't be peace in CAR until the war has run its course. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Al Jazeera and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Oct-14 World View -- Renewed violence in Central African Republic despite peacekeepers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Oct-2014)
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Iran blames Pakistan for terrorist attacks
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A real geopolitical drama is in progress, as the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) attack on the Syrian city of Kobani, on the border with Turkey, may be close to victory. An ISIS victory would have potentially severe consequences for both America and Turkey. The battle of Kobani is being watched very closely around the Mideast, and an ISIS victory would expose the American airstrike strategy as a failure that exposed hundreds of thousands of civilian Kurds to slaughter. An ISIS victory would also create hundreds of thousands of new refugees adding to the hundreds of thousands who crossed the border into Turkey in the last three weeks. An ISIS victory might also trigger a renewal of Turkey's civil war versus the the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
So Turkey and America are playing a grand game of "chicken." In the classic American 1950s game, two teenagers get into cars at opposite ends of a long street, and drive towards each other. The first teenager to turn aside to avoid a collision is a "chicken," and the other teenager wins. If neither teenager turns aside, then there's a collision, resulting in deaths and/or injuries, but both sides have "won" because neither of them is a chicken.
In the current game of chicken over ISIS and Kobani, both America and Turkey are making demands of the other side to save Kobani from ISIS. If either side gives in and does something to save Kobani, then that side will be "chicken," and the other side will have won. If neither side does anything, and Kobani falls, possibly leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths and refugees, then both America and Turkey will have "won."
It would be funny if the consequences weren't so serious. America tells Turkey to send ground troops to save Kobani. Turkey says that they won't, unless America also sends in ground troops.
As I understand Turkey's statements in the last few days, Turkey might be willing to send in ground troops alone, provided that America agrees to set up a no-fly zone in Syria, restricting Syria's air force.
Akin Unver, assistant professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, says that there are fundamental differences between Turkey's and America's strategies. In an interview on Al-Jazeera (my transcription):
"I think there's a fundamental difference in Washington's and Ankara's view on what ISIS is, and how best to counter ISIS. ...For Washington, basically ISIS may be an unfortunate result of an Iraq war, but it has to be combatted.
For Ankara, ISIS is a product of Assad and Maliki's policies for a very long time, that Ankara was actually warning the world about. Ankara was basically asking for a Western coalition, a Western military coalition against Assad, as well as some diplomatic push for Maliki, so that radicalization in the form of ISIS wouldn't happen.
But when you think from the perspective of Ankara, all of these warnings are unheeded, so basically right now Ankara doesn't think that Washington sees the picture very clearly. So that's the bsic divergence. ...
But the logic, rationale and narrative is that we told Washington that ISIS or a similar organization would happen, because basically if you want to deal with ISIS, you first have to get rid of the fundamental causes that produce that kind of radicalization, and the number one culprit that Ankara can find is Assad. Maybe not remove Assad, but basically create a secure zone, or cordon sanitaire in northern Syria, so that Assad's forces will never be able to move in there. That's the only way that Ankara thinks they can resolve this issue."
I actually agree with this. I've been saying for almost two years that the actions of Syria's genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad and his slaughter and displacement of millions of innocent Sunni women and children would draw jihadists from all over the world, and that's exactly what's happened, resulting in the creation of ISIS. Turkey warned exactly the same thing, but it was ignored.
I've also pointed out for two years that the fault also lies with Russia, which has been supply al-Assad with unlimited amounts of heavy weapons to use in his campaign of extermination against Sunnis, making Russia's president Vladimir Putin a war criminal.
Syria is in a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s), an era in which civil wars are impossible, or fizzle quickly if they start. The Syrian civil war began in 2011, and fizzled within a year, turning into a proxy war between Russia and jihadist forces that became ISIS.
In an article by Akin Unver (quoted above), Unver says that Turkey is alarmed by Russia's support of al-Assad for another reason:
"In today's terms, Russia's annexation of Crimea is sufficiently alarming for Ankara, with the added dimension of Russian naval supremacy in the Black Sea. Turkey is now virtually defenseless there and has lost its deterrence or negotiation leverages against Moscow in a number of issues. The most immediate is the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) designations in the Black Sea, critical due to Shell, Exxon, and Chevron exploration operations on Turkey's northern coast.If the US wants to recruit Turkey's support against ISIL, not only should it address the full spectrum of the causes that created ISIL in the first place, but also make longer-term commitments against a Russian backlash against Turkey in the Black Sea. Only by approaching Ukraine and ISIL as complementing grand strategy issues can Washington find the ally it seeks in Ankara, without any need to counterproductively move any bases out of Turkey or clumsily write-off Ankara's cooperation."
Turkey's issue with Russia in the Black Sea is totally ignored in almost all media discussions of Turkey's strategy in Syria. World War I and the Crimean War were the last two generational crisis wars of both Russia and Turkey, and they were on opposite sides in both wars. Washington Post and Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and Al-Jazeera (Doha) and The National (UAE)
Turkey is saying that the anti-ISIS coalition will get Turkey's military support only if the coalition will target the Bashar al-Assad regime as well. Specifically, Turkey is demanding:
Russia's Foreign Ministry is making a farcical demand to submit the discussion on buffer zones in Syria to a vote in the United Nations Security Council (so that they can veto it). According to spokesman Alexander Lukashevich: "It is up to the UN Security Council to make decisions on these (buffer) zones. You remember the way it was in Iraq, Libya, and what it resulted in."
Russia has been using the UN Security County to humiliate the United States since 2010, by lying repeatedly and then vetoing any attempt to stop the genocide in Syria. Lukashevich mentioned Iraq and Libya, but didn't bother to mention Ukraine, where Russian soldiers invaded Crimea and annexed it to Russia, and then Russian soldiers invaded east Ukraine, leaving it an unstable mess, after shooting down an airliner. And Russia did all this without getting approval from the UN Security Council.
I don't know what decision the Obama administration will make in Syria, but I hope that it will just take the decision, without a farcical vote in the UN Security Council. BBC and Itar-Tass (Moscow)
A car bomb attack on a police station in an Iran city on the border with Pakistan on Thursday morning killed a police officer, injuring others. The day before, three other police officers were killed in a separate terrorist attack. The Pakistan-based terror group Jaish-ul-Adl (Army of Justice) has reportedly claimed responsibility for the terrorist attacks.
Iran is blaming Pakistan's government for the attacks. In an official statement by former IRGC commander MP Mohammad Esmail Kowsari:
"We wish that these acts of terror in the country, especially in border towns would end for good, but the main issue is that the Pakistani government does not secure its borders.The Pakistani government has practically no control over the border areas and if they really cannot control it they better tell us so that we ourselves could take action."
This may be a veiled threat to send Iranian forces into Pakistan to pursue Jaish-ul-Adl, just as American forces entered Pakistan to capture Osama bin Laden. Pakistan Today and Tasnim News (Iran) and AEI Iran Tracker
During the last six weeks, I've written several articles on the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war. Iran is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, and has a similar "generation gap," separating the survivors the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war from the younger generations that have grown up afterwards. This has resulted in schizophrenic Iranian policies, balancing the hardline attitudes of the Supreme Leader and other geezers who survived the Islamic Revolution versus the people in the younger generations, who like the West and don't hate Israel.
What decision will the American administration make with regard to Kobani? In particular, with America challenge al-Assad militarily?
It's impossible to predict individual political decisions, but it is possible to describe the long-term trends. And as I've been saying for almost ten years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, India, Russia and Iran will be our allies in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslims. Several long-time readers have written to me recently to say that they didn't believe these predictions ten years ago, but are now astonished to see them coming true.
So let's focus now on Kobani and Syria. The long-term trends indicate that America will hold its nose and side with Russia, Iran and al-Assad. In the immediate context, this probably means that America will NOT support Turkey's demands for a buffer area or no-fly zone in Syria.
However, I can find no long-term trend that provides a way to forecast what will happen to the people of Kobani. What America or Turkey will do is a purely political chaotic (in the sense of Chaos theory) decision, which can't be predicted. The Kurds in Kobani claim that they're holding off the ISIS fighters, and hope to win. Or maybe either Turkey or America will find a way to provide ground troops. Or maybe Kobani will fall, with all the repercussions outlined above. Right now, there is no way to predict.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Oct-14 World View -- Turkey and America play a game of 'chicken' over ISIS and Kobani thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Oct-2014)
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Why do so many Chinese expect war?
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Kurds in cities across Turkey continue to express fury that Turkey is not intervening to save the Kurds living in Kobani, Syria, on the border with Turkey, from the approaching forces of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). It's possible that hundreds of thousands of Kurds are about to be slaughtered by ISIS, but Turkey's military has a row of tanks along the border, watching the increasingly intense battles and explosions as if they were in a movie theatre. Turkey won't even permit Kurds on the Turkish side of the border to cross over into Kobani to join the fight against ISIS.
Turkey is playing a very hard line. The U.S. and Nato really want Turkey to save Kobani, and are pouring on the pressure. But Turkey will not do so unless an objective of the war is that America's warplanes also start striking targets belonging to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The U.S. and Nato do not want to get into a war with al-Assad, and say that ISIS is the most important threat.
With regard to ISIS versus the Kurds, Turkey's conundrum is that it wants both sides to lose. There a millions of innocent Kurds in Kobani, but it's also the home of fighters from the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), with whom the Turks fought a 30 year civil war. A few days ago, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, "What ISIS is to us, the PKK is the same," a remark that infuriated the Kurds still further. In fact, many Kurds say that Turkey is on the side of ISIS and is funding and supporting it, because Turkey wants the Kurds exterminated.
The fall of Kobani appears to be close. American air strikes are slowing ISIS down, but they will not prevent an ISIS victory. An ISIS victory would mean many things to the Kurds -- hundreds of thousands more deaths, hundreds of thousands more refugees pouring into Turkey, and the loss of a city that many Kurds consider to be their capital. It will seen as a major American failure of the airstrike strategy. And it may trigger a revival of the civil war between the Turks and Kurds in Turkey. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and AP and Guardian (London)
I like to read and sometimes refer to the articles by the Lowy Institute for International Policy because it's in Australia, where they have a much more focused understanding of the issues in southeast Asia. They've done several articles on the threat from China, and the question of Australia's role in a possible war between the U.S. and China.
According to one article, referring to a Beijing professor of classical music:
"His students don't seem like fenqing ('angry youth'). They are in a musical conservatory, after all, not a military academy. Many have overseas connections. But they are also ambitious, emotional, fiercely nationalist and for them war – any war – would be a gratifying affirmation of their country's ascendance. Like the 2008 Olympic Games but with real explosions, not fireworks. These kids lap up PLA propaganda films like Silent Contest even as they dream of Juilliard. My professor friend worries they just haven't thought things through, that their various aspirations are totally misaligned."
This emotional, fierce nationalism in China is something I've been writing about for years. Fierce nationalism is most common in countries in generational Crisis eras, and so we see increased nationalism in America and in European countries. The survivors of World War II were all too aware of the dangers of fierce nationalism, and the many roles it played, including the rise of the Nazis, in bringing about the worst of the war. So now those survivors are gone, and fierce nationalism is the cool thing today, especially in China.
According to Lowy, they want wealth, power and respect for their country. It's relevant to Thucydides' explanation of the epochal Peloponnesian War: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable." Historical analysis indicates that there's a 75% chance of war as China replaces America in the global pecking order.
Lowy finds the "strange revival of nationalism" to be a paradox of our age. War worship should totally contradict materialist aspirations, yet the two often go together. Perhaps some new citizens want the goodies of Western life without the full package of liberal rights and responsibilities.
As I've been saying for ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Clash of Civilizations war is coming with 100% certainty, with the two sides led by China and America. Lowy says, with understatement, "Such a conflict would be protracted. All agree it would be a long, costly war of exhaustion for all concerned." Actually, it would be a full-scale generational crisis war. Every nuclear weapon and missile will be used before it's over. Once the missiles run out, there will be huge armies fighting all over the world, fighting not only each other, but also famine, Ebola, Swine Flu, and Bird Flu. As much as half the world's population could be wiped out, leaving the other half to rebuild the world again. Lowy Institute and Lowy Institute (Feb 2014)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Oct-14 World View -- Kurdish riots continue as Turkey deals with the Kobani conundrum thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Oct-2014)
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Biden makes a third apology, this time to Saudi Arabia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As we've been reporting the last few days, the Syrian city of Kobani appears to be close to being overrun by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). The city is populated by Syrian Kurds, and a successful attack by ISIS would result in a massacre and tens or hundreds of thousands of refugees. Now, on Tuesday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan made a statement that I consider to be pretty remarkable:
"I am telling the West – dropping bombs from the air will not provide a solution. The terror will not be over ... unless there is cooperation for a ground operation.Months have passed but no results have been achieved. Kobani is about to fall. We asked for three things: one, for a no-fly zone to be created; two, for a secure zone parallel to the region to be declared; and for the moderate opposition in Syria and Iraq to be trained and equipped."
I keep reading this statement over and over, and it appears to me to be almost a kind of extortion: "Meet my demands, and I'll save Kobani."
It's well known that Erdogan is very dissatisfied that the US-led air strikes in Syria have been attacking only ISIS targets, and that he would like the air strike to attack targets of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. So he's making the following demands:
Erdogan has said that ground troops will be required to save Kobani, and that Turkey would be willing to join in a coalition ground troop force with Western governments.
However, whether Erdogan likes it or not, Turkey is under tremendous international pressure to save Kobani. On Tuesday, prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu expressed his government's willingness to join with a Western coalition to use ground troops in Syria to fight ISIS and the al-Assad regime.
According to a Turkish analyst, Turkey might be dragged into a quagmire:
"If Turkey engages in a ground assault against the Assad regime in Syria, then it might be dragged into a quagmire. I want to draw attention to the fault lines based on ethnic and sectarian divisions. We have divisions similar to those Middle Eastern countries which have been recently dragged into civil wars. The most appropriate option is for Turkey to join the air campaign against ISIS."
Hurriyet (Istanbul) and AP and Today's Zaman (Ankara)
Twelve people were killed in clashes with police, as Kurdish protesters in cities across Turkey took to the streets in violent riots to demand that Turkey protect the Kurds in Kobani who are under attack by ISIS. Curfews have been declared in five provinces. The protests were called for by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the biggest Kurdish party in Turkey. PKK is considered to be a terrorist organization by Turkey and by Western countries. In a 30-year civil war between the PKK and Turkey, some 30,000 people were killed. Now the PKK is accusing Turkey of siding with ISIS, in order to exterminate the Kurds in Kobani.
For its part, Turkey sees helping the Kurds in Kobani as being the same as helping the PKK. Turkey sees ISIS as less of a threat than the al-Assad regime and the Kurds, and fears that the Kobani crisis will revive the civil war. BBC and Today's Zaman (Istanbul)
As we've reported, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden had to apologize on Saturday to Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for saying in a speech on Thursday that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had funded and armed the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and contributed to its rise. Biden was trying to pin the blame on Mideast states in order to defuse the scathing criticism from the Obama administration's former defense secretary, Leon Panetta, whose new book blames administration policy for the rise of the ISIS. On Sunday, Biden apologized to the Foreign Affairs minister for United Arab Emirates (UAE). Now, on Tuesday, Biden call the Foreign Affairs minister of Saudi Arabia to apologize for the same remarks. CBS News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Oct-14 World View -- Kurds protest violently in cities across Turkey over ISIS attack on Kobani thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Oct-2014)
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Ebola expected to reach France and Britain within three weeks
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The U.S. military has begun using Apache AH-64 attack helicopters to strike targets of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) in Iraq. In addition, the number 1,200 of US military personal on the ground in Iraq is expected to increase to 1,600 within the coming weeks, although the U.S. administration does not refer to these as "ground forces."
Up until now, U.S. bombing strikes were all performed by high-flying warplanes, out of reach of small arms fire and missiles from ISIS fighters. Military analysts have generally pointed out that warplane bombing and missile strikes have very limited effectiveness. Apache helicopters have the advantage that they can be much more effective in providing close air support for "ground troops," but unlike warplanes they're vulnerable to enemy small arms and missile fire. During the previous Iraq war, several Apaches were shot down by enemy fire. Defense News and ABC News
Tens of thousands of villagers were fleeing their homes in Kashmir on Monday as Indian and Pakistani troops bombarded each other with gunfire and mortar shells over the international border known as the "Line of Control" (LoC), separating the Pakistani-government and Indian-government regions of Kashmir. Kashmir was a major battleground for the 1947 Partition war that following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, one of the bloodiest wars of the last century, and there have been two more wars fought across the LoC since then. Monday's fighting was the worst since a 2003 cease-fire agreement, and took place at a number of points along the LoC.
According to Pakistan's government, the fighting started when Indian forces resorted to "unprovoked firing" along the boundary.
An Indian statement blamed Pakistani forces for violating the ceasefire, and promised "effective retaliation." In a departure from past practice, India said they would neither speak to Pakistan, nor seek a flag meeting to lower tensions. AP and Dawn (Pakistan) and Indian Express
In Spain, a nurse's assistant contracted Ebola, after treating a Spanish missionary and Spanish priest who had returned from West Africa with Ebola. Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75% chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24, and a 50% chance it could hit Britain by that date. Belgium has a 40% chance. The cases are expected to be the result of air travel from West Africa.
However, these are expected to be isolated cases that will be controlled by using techniques like "contact tracing," as I described a few days ago. ( "3-Oct-14 World View -- Five new Ebola patients become infected every hour in Sierra Leone")
However, West Africa is being overwhelmed by Ebola, and contact tracing is not possible. Some reports indicate that eastern Guinea and eastern Liberia, which had remained free of Ebola, are now seeing it spread to those regions. This means that it will probably next spread into Cote d'Ivoire.
Countries around the world are ramping up their preparations for Ebola coming to their countries. As I've said before, Ebola is most likely to spread out of control in large megacities and in war zones, such as Syria and Iraq. CNN and Reuters
Schools in Liberia and Sierra Leone remain closed with no announced date for reopening. The purpose of closing the schools is to inhibit the spread of Ebola among schoolchildren, but closing the schools doesn't remove the danger, according to one community leader:
"Children are always playing outside. They're touching each other, they're hugging each other. Even if you say to them: don't touch, they're playing football. You see them every day doing such things, so it is about telling them and educating them."
The solution in both countries is to provide educational courses by radio. It's hoped that this will keep the kids indoors, and that they'll be able to continue their education. All Africa and SBS World News (Australia)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Oct-14 World View -- U.S. military expands war in Iraq with Apache Helicopters thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Oct-2014)
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Biden continues apologizing, this time to UAE
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Only a few hundred exhausted pro-democracy protesters were in the streets on Monday morning, the deadline for the Hong Kong government's ultimatum to clear the streets. The protesters have withdrawn from protest sites that formerly were blocking access to government buildings, schools and businesses, and the government has so far not ordered the police to clear the remaining protest sites.
The government strategy is to stand back and hope that the protests fizzle, and to avoid clashes and violence which might motivate thousands of protesters to return. Quartz
The leaders of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP), an umbrella group comprising some 100 jihadi groups in Pakistan, has decided to switch sides and support the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) instead the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (Nusra Front) in Syria. According to TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah:
"We consider the fighters in Iraq and Syria as our brothers and are proud of their victories. We are their part and parcel in times of joy and sadness.The Muslim nation has great expectations from the fighters in Iraq and Syria. We are with you in the hour of trial and will support you in all possible ways."
However, TTP itself has splintered, and a number of its member groups have split away, so it seems unlikely that TTP will be able to provide any help to ISIS. Conversely, ISIS has little organizational influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan or India, where the Taliban operate.
The more profound effect is that it continues the increasing generational change among the world's jihadists. Today's young jihadists, from the Caucasus to North Africa to Pakistan to Indonesia, are more drawn to ISIS because it appears to be winning, led by the youthful Abu Omar al-Baghdadi. This is in contrast to al-Qaeda’s ageing leaders, most of whom are holed up in the Pakistan - Afghan tribal belt to save themselves from drones, and who are more and more seen as tired, ineffective and uninspiring.
According to Fawaz Gerges, of the London School of Economics:
"The Islamic State's appeal extends beyond the Middle East. Their strategy is anchored on the simple premise that it is a winning horse. It has promised the entire ummah — the Muslim community — that it could deliver victory and salvation."
Thus, there have been reports of jihadi support for ISIS from Australia, India and Pakistan. China is also concerned about the influence of ISIS in its disaffected Muslim Uighur community, according to an article in the Beijing mouthpiece Global Times:
"They not only want to get training in terrorist techniques, but also to expand their connections in international terrorist organizations through actual combat to gain support for more terrorist activities in China."
Even if the TTP cannot provide any real support for ISIS, the TTP announcement is a worrisome development for Pakistan. The subject of sending Pakistani fighters to Syria and Iraq to fight for ISIS is a touchy subject for Pakistan's government in Islamabad, because Pakistani authorities have repeatedly denied that any such movements have ever taken place. However, Pakistan jihadi groups themselves have claimed that they've sent thousands of fighters to Syria and Iraq. India Times and The News (Pakistan) and The Diplomat and USA Today
As we reported yesterday, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden had to apologize on Saturday to Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for saying in a speech on Thursday that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had funded and armed the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and contributed to its rise. Biden was trying to pin the blame on Mideast states in order to defuse the scathing criticism from the Obama administration's former defense secretary, Leon Panetta, whose new book blames administration policy for the rise of the ISIS.
Dr Anwar Gargash, the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs for United Arab Emirates (UAE) hit back at Biden on Saturday:
"[These statements] are far from the truth, especially with relation to the UAE’s role in confronting extremism and terrorism and its clear and advanced position in recognizing the dangers, including the danger of financing terrorism and terrorist groups. ...[Biden had] ignored the steps and effective measures [taken by the UAE], which comes as part of a more comprehensive political stand against this plague."
So on Sunday Biden call General Shaikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, and apologized to the UAE for any implications in his recent statements that were understood to mean that UAE has backed the growth of some of the terrorist organizations in the region. Biden added that the United States appreciates the UAE’s historic role in combating extremism and terrorism as well as its advanced position in this respect.
And so, right now, Leon Panetta's statements blaming the U.S. administration for the rise of ISIS still stand. Khaleej Times (Dubai) and The National (Abu Dhabi)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Oct-14 World View -- ISIS influence spreads in Asia, as Pakistan Taliban pledges support thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Oct-2014)
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Joe Biden apologizes to Turkey's president Erdogan for ISIS remarks
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Hong Kong's protesting students were bloodied on Friday by attacks by thugs thought to be from criminal gangs known as "triads." Protesters have accused the HK police of ignoring or even supporting the triad attacks on protesters, charges that the police vehemently deny. Some protesters are suggesting that the Beijing government is paying triad gangs to attack the protesters.
Triads are sometimes referred to as "the Chinese Mafia." They're families of organized crime gangs involved in armed robbery, racketeering, smuggling, narcotics trafficking, prostitution, gambling and even contract murder. Their roots go back 1000 years to Buddhist (White Lotus) secret societies that originally were political. But over the centuries they morphed into organized crime families. They were given the name "Triad" by the British because of a triangular symbol that they use. They are mainly centered in China, Hong Kong and Macao, but they've spread to other countries as well, including the United States. There are Triad members featured in the video game Grand Theft Auto.
Protesters are responding to threats by the Hong Kong government by promising to allow government buildings, schools and businesses to open on Monday, while allowing peaceful protests to continue. AFP and Reuters and Triads And Organized Crime In China
The Obama administration continues to scramble to fend off scathing criticism by Obama's former defense secretary, Leon Panetta, who blames administration policy for the rise of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). In his book, Panetta says:
"My fear, as I voiced to the President and others, was that if the country split apart or slid back into the violence that we'd seen in the years immediately following the U.S. invasion, it could become a new haven for terrorists to plot attacks against the U.S. Iraq's stability was not only in Iraq's interest but also in ours. I privately and publicly advocated for a residual force that could provide training and security for Iraq's military."
In a speech on Thursday, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden attempted to deflect blame from the Obama administration by pointing to every country in the Mideast as culpable:
"What happened was, and the history will record this, what my constant cry was that our biggest problem is our allies, our allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria. The Turks were great friends and I have a great relationship with Erdogan, which I spent a lot of time with, the Saudis, the Emiratis, etc. What were they doing? They were so determined to take down Assad ... what did they do? They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad. Except that the people who were being supplied were al-Nusra, and al-Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world. ...So what do we have for the first time? Now, Saudi Arabia has stopped the funding going on ... The Qataris have cut off their support for the most extreme elements of the terrorist organizations. And the Turks, President Erdogan told me, he is an old friend, said you were right. We let too many people through. Now they are trying to seal their border."
This statement infuriated Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said:
"[Biden] will be history for me if he has indeed used such expressions. ...There might have been people traveling on tourist visa but no one with arms has ever crossed the Turkish border."
So Biden spoke by phone with Erdogan on Saturday, and apologized. According to a White House statement:
"The vice president apologized for any implication that Turkey or other allies and partners in the region had intentionally supplied or facilitated the growth of ISIL or other violent extremists in Syria."
So does that amount to an admission that Panetta was right after all? Today's Zaman (Ankara) and CBS News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Oct-14 World View -- Hong Kong protesters fear more violence by China's 'Triad' gangs thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Oct-2014)
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Sweden to be first EU country to recognize State of Palestine
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The recent vote by Turkey's parliament to allow the deployment of Turkish troops in Iraq and Syria to fight terrorist groups has drawn strong criticism from the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The intent, at the urging of the United States, was to allow Turkish troops to fight the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party). The vote was triggered by the ISIS attack on the Syrian border town of Kobani, a town with a Kurdish population hundreds of thousands of whom have been fleeing across the border into Turkey.
However, Turkey has not hid the fact that its main objective is not to fight ISIS but to fight the al-Assad regime. As a result, the al-Assad regime is criticizing the vote as an "act of aggression" that will threaten "international and regional peace and security." According to a Syrian Foreign Ministry statement:
"The public approach of the Turkish government represents an act of aggression on a country that is a member state of the United Nations. ...The international community should take a serious, firm and responsible stance to put an end to Ankara's destructive approach, force it to abide by Security Council resolutions, stop its unlimited funding to armed, terrorist organizations, and stop interfering in Syrian affairs."
Meanwhile, Turkey's government is dealing with the dilemma of what to do about the city of Kobani, as ISIS forces close in and threaten to overrun it. The mixed emotions of Turkey's government are illustrated by the self-contradictory statement of Turkey's new prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu:
"We wouldn't want Kobani to fall. We'll do whatever we can to prevent this from happening. ...Some are saying, 'Why aren't you protecting Kurds in Kobani?' If the Turkish Armed Forces [TSK] enter Kobani and the Syrian Turkmens ask, 'Why aren't you saving us?' we would have to go there as well.
When the Arab citizens across from Reyhanli say, 'Why don't you save us as well?' we'd have to go there too."
In other words, if Turkey saved one group, then they'd have to save everyone else as well.
So will Turkish troops enter Kobani and stop ISIS from overrunning it? You sure can't tell from those statements. Today's Zaman (Ankara) and International Business Times
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, has issued a statement to Muslim pilgrims attending the Hajj in Saudi Arabia, to condemn not only American Islam, but also al-Qaeda linked jihadists in Western Asia (Pakistan and Afghanistan):
"The deceitful enemy is fanning the flames of fire between Muslims to sideline the motivations behind resistance and fighting so it can place the Zionist regime and the minions of Arrogance [West], which are the true enemies, in a safe environment. Supporting takfiri terrorist groups and their lies in the countries of Western Asia is a result of this pernicious policy. This is a warning to all of us so that we must consider the matter of Muslim unity as our highest national and international priority.The Palestinian nation must be hopeful more than ever before, fighters of jihad must perpetuate their jihad and efforts and pursue the perennially honorable path of the West Bank with strength. Muslim nations must demand their governments’ serious and real support of Palestine, and Muslim government must take step in this path honestly.
American Islam ... is an Islam that fans the flames of division between Muslims ... fights the Muslim brother instead of fighting Zionism and Arrogance ... It is not Islam."
This is really a fascinating statement on multiple levels.
There's a Sunni versus Shia divide growing the Mideast, largely driven by Iran's and Russia's support of Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad, who has killed and displaced millions of innocent Muslims in Syria. Khamenei does not acknowledge his own apostasy as a Muslim supporting the slaughter of millions of other Muslims.
Instead of acknowledging his own guilt is causing Muslims to fight one another, he absurdly blames it on the Zionist regime (Israel) and the "minions of Arrogance" (America). Arabs and Persians have been fighting one another for millennia. I wonder if he also blames that fighting on the Zionists and on the Americans? Somebody should ask him.
I assume that the condemnation of American Islam is to excuse jihadist attacks on America itself. He must be frustrated that American Muslims are loyal to America, and not to his threats of violence (just as German-Americans in WW II were loyal to America, not to the Nazis). He has his own problems in Iran, which is in a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s) and is going through a "generation gap," where the generations of young Iranians growing up after the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution generally like the West. ( "10-Jun-14 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader complains young people are not revolutionary enough")
He also condemns the "takfiri terrorist groups" in Western Asia. The word "takfiri" refers to someone guilty of apostasy which, as I described above, he's more guilty of than anyone. Here he's condemning the terrorist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan that have been attacking Shia Muslims in those countries, as well as targets within southeastern Iran itself. Khamenei allows himself to arrange for the slaughter of as many innocent Muslims as possible, while condemning only those who slaughter people that he likes.
So this man, who is doing all he can to promote hatred among Muslims for each other, says that "all of us so that we must consider the matter of Muslim unity as our highest national and international priority." What a senile hypocrite! AEI Iran Tracker
Sweden, whose government took a sharp left turn after the September 15 elections, may become the first European Union country to formally recognize the State of Palestine. Incoming prime minister Stefan Löfven announced on Friday that he would submit the motion to his new cabinet. There are three EU countries -- Hungary, Poland and Slovakia -- that already recognize the State of Palestine, but they have been doing so since before they joined the EU. Predictably, Swedish Palestinian groups cheered the move, while Jewish groups condemned it. The Local (Sweden) and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Oct-14 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader condemns 'American Islam' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Oct-2014)
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Turkey's parliament approves military operations in Syria and Iraq
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The beaches of Cape Verde, Kenya, New Zealand, Jamaica, Morocco and other countries are changing from sandy resorts to masses of black dirt and stones. The reason is that sand miners are harvesting all the sand on these beaches, and selling it. It is used in the production of computer chips, plates and mobile phones. However, the biggest use is by far the construction industry. Global consumption of sand mining is estimated at 40 billion tons per year, with 30 billion tons of that used in concrete for the construction industry. Spiegel
As we've been reporting, the attack by Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) on the border city of Kobani, Syria, has resulting in hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing into Turkey in just a few days, and this has caused Turkey to completely reverse its Syria policy that it's followed since 2011.
On Thursday, Turkey's parliament approved a motion allowing, first, the deployment of Turkish troops in Iraq and Syria to fight terrorist groups, and second, to allow Nato troops and warplanes to base out of Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. The motion passed by 298 votes in favor, 98 against.
Despite the overwhelming vote, there was still vocal opposition. Turkish officials would prefer to be attacking Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and Turkey doesn't trust the Kurds, whom they would be supporting against ISIS. Besides ISIS, the authorization extends to another terrorist group, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), which whom Turkey fought a civil war in the recent past.
Turkey's defense minister Ismet Yilmaz hastened to say that "immediate steps should not be expected." However, I would point out that events are moving quickly in the Mideast, with major changes almost every day, and now that the authorization motion has passed, the political pressure will be on to use the military. Today's Zaman (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Ebola is spreading at a "terrifying rate" in Sierra Leone, with five new infections every hour. In Liberia, the disease has reached every county in the country.
As I wrote last month ( "18-Sep-14 World View -- Will Ebola become a worldwide pandemic?"), it's now likely that the pandemic will run its course in Liberia, and Sierra Leone as well, meaning that all people there will sooner or later become sick with the disease, and either survive or not.
There seems to be a fair amount of anxiety in America, sometimes approaching panic, now that there's an Ebola patient in Texas.
But there is plenty of evidence that countries with good medical infrastructures will be able to control any outbreaks of Ebola. In Nigeria, for example, the country in Africa with the largest population, someone with an Ebola infection arrived by plane in Lagos in July, eventually resulting in 19 confirmed cases of Ebola and eight deaths. Some 900 people who were potentially exposed to the original case and secondary cases were monitored for 21 days. The infection was stopped in Nigeria, and a similar process stopped the infection in Senegal.
The relevant methodology for controlling the spread of Ebola is "contact tracing," which means that potential contacts are located, and their contacts are located, and so forth, with the resulting people monitored for 21 days.
According to CDC Director Tom Frieden:
"Contact tracing is a core public health function. We always err on the side of identifying and tracking more contacts rather than less. Our approach in this type of case is to cast the net widely."
The real danger, not mentioned by Frieden, is that Ebola will spread into a war zone somewhere, where it's impossible to do contact tracing. For example, Ebola infections in Syria and Iraq would be very difficult or impossible to control. Guardian (London) and Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Oct-14 World View -- Five new Ebola patients become infected every hour in Sierra Leone thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Oct-2014)
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Hong Kong protesters raise their demands
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Turkey's parliament expects to debate and vote on Thursday on the following motion:
"The Cabinet of Ministers has decided to ask permission from Parliament to send Turkish troops to foreign countries when necessary for cross-border interventions and to allow foreign troops in Turkey for the same purposes. ...[The intent is to] defeat attacks directed at our country from all terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria."
There are two "terrorist groups" that are intended targets: the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), the terrorists who have fought a civil war with Turkey
As I discussed in detail several days ago ( "30-Sep-14 World View -- Kobani crisis causes Turkey to reverse policy on Syria"), this represents a major reversal of policies that have been in effect since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011.
The motion quoted above has two parts, both of which represent major policy changes:
The motion is very controversial, but is expected to be approved. Today's Zaman (Ankara) and Hurriyet Daily News (Ankara)
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday insisted that the Suleiman Shah Tomb is not in danger of being attacked by ISIS forces.
The Suleiman Shah Tomb is a Turkish enclave situated in the Syria, in the town of Aleppo, guarded by Turkish soldiers. It's the burial place of the grandfather of the Osman 1, the founder of the Ottoman Empire. The tomb in Syria is the only Turkish territory outside of Turkey's borders. There is a concern that ISIS militants will attack the Turkish soldiers guarding the tomb and take them as hostages. Erdogan insisted that the tomb is not endangered by ISIS militants. Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and Today's Zaman (Ankara)
Hong Kong officials are signaling that they'll allow the protesters to continue the "Occupy Central" protests to continue for days or even weeks, as long as they remain peaceful.
However, protesters are indicating that they're going to escalate the protests by occupying government buildings, something that will certainly trigger police action. The protesters are now making two demands:
Wednesday is the 45th anniversary of China's of Mao Zedong's Communist revolution, and Wednesday and Thursday are public holidays. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Oct-14 World View -- Turkey will vote Thursday on military action in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(2-Oct-2014)
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Taiwan officials split on reaction to Hong Kong protests
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Apparently the European and American sanctions on Russia for the latters invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea are having some effect after all. The value of the ruble currency has fallen over 20% against the dollar this year. The ruble is now at the lowest point since it was restructured during Moscow's traumatic 1998 debt default.
This comes at a time when Russia's economy is suffering for other reasons, particularly the falling price of oil. Libya has massively increased production, and OPEC is producing more than forecast. Iraq, Nigeria, and Angola and Saudi Arabia have each boosted output. These increased supplies of oil have pushed the price of oil down to $97 per barrel on Tuesday, which reduces the price of all forms of energy, which is Russia's main export.
The fall in the ruble is causing Russia to consider adopting capital controls in order to stop the fall of the ruble. Possible capital controls could include taxes, tariffs, and legislation banning or regulating certain activities, such as owning foreign assets. Russia's Central Bank spent over $72 billion in the first three months of this year to prop up the ruble, as Russia's seizure of Crimea caused a huge currency selloff. Moscow Times and MarketWatch and Reuters
The size of the Hong Kong protests grew on Tuesday, although there was no violence by either the police or the protesters. Hong Kong's chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, "The central government will not rescind its decision." Both he and Beijing officials demanded that the protesters go home immediately, suggesting that their patience was ebbing. The biggest protests are expected on Wednesday and Thursday, since those are public holidays celebrating the 45th anniversary of Mao Zedong's Communist revolution.
Taiwanese officials are watching the events in Hong Kong closely for hints about how the Beijing government would treat Taiwan if its government came under direct control of China.
Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jou, of the Kuomingtang (KMT) political party, asked the mainland authorities and the demonstrators to show tolerance and self-restraint in handling the matter. Ma noted that as the mainland authorities have promised Hong Kong self-administration and a high degree of autonomy, the KMT believes that both Hong Kong and China stand to benefit if these promises are fulfilled.
The Kuomingtang (KMT) is the modern day incarnation of Chiang Kai-shek's original nationalist party that fought against Mao Zedong and lost, and fled to Hong Kong, then a British colony, and from there to Formosa (Taiwan) in 1949, at the conclusion of the civil war. The KMT position has always been that Taiwan is part of China, and that one day they'll be fully reunited.
Joseph Wu, the head of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), said that the Hong Kong and China governments should be more open and receptive to the voices of the people and the wisdom of its citizens, and that the government should reassess its position.
The people of Taiwan watched the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing with horror, and it led to the Wild Lily student rebellion in 1990. By 2000, the student rebellion had morphed into the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which, in contrast to the KMT, was committed to Taiwan's complete independence from China. DPP has moderated that opinion in the face of military threats from Beijing.
With regard to the Hong Kong demonstrations, both political parties said that the outcome of the demonstrations would affect Taiwan's relations with China. Depending on the response by Chinese authorities, the DPP did not rule out a "drastic" change in policy. USA Today / AP and China Post (Taipei)
Pakistan's health officials have confirmed another 10 polio cases on Monday. Pakistan is now only 15 cases short of breaking its own 14-year-old record of 199 polio cases in the year 2000. This is a major setback for a country that as recently as 2005 saw just 28 cases, and seemed on track for polio eradication.
Most of the polio cases are in Pakistan's tribal area and northwest provinces, where the Taliban has the greatest strength. Pakistan has been a particular problem because the Taliban have been murdering health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio providing vaccines, ever since the administration bragged in 2011 that a vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama bin Laden. In a recent day-long national campaign, over 16,000 children could not be vaccinated due to their parents' resistance. Many parents refuse vaccinations due to fear of Taliban who say that the polio medicine is a conspiracy by the West to sterile Muslims. The Taliban have attacked and killed health workers who provide the vaccines, as well has parents who permit their children to be vaccinated.
Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the three remaining countries where polio is endemic. The News (Islamabad) and IRIN (United Nations) and Business Standard (India)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Oct-14 World View -- Russia's ruble currency drops to record low against the dollar thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(1-Oct-2014)
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