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China's South China Sea building spree threatens neighbors
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China is on a building spree, conducting "large scale" land reclamation and construction in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Since last year, China has already built a new artificial island, more than 18 acres in size, whose main building appears to have an anti-aircraft tower.
Satellite photographs have shown that Chinese reclamation work is advanced on six reefs in the Spratly archipelago. Workers are building ports and fuel storage depots as well as possibly two airstrips as China works to project its military power into Southeast Asia. China’s creation of artificial islands in the South China Sea is happening so fast that Beijing will be able to extend the range of its navy, air force, coastguard and fishing fleets before long, according to analysts.
China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose. Instead, China is becoming increasingly belligerent militarily, annexing other nations' territories, and militarizing the entire sea.
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said on Thursday at a Senate hearing that China is making an "aggressive" military effort to exert sovereignty in the South China Sea. However, he said that China was still in a construction phase so it was unclear what weaponry or forces it might deploy on these man-made islands. Guardian (London) and Reuters and Foreign Policy and Reuters (2/20)
China is building some "fairly amazing submarines" and now has more diesel- and nuclear-powered vessels than the United States, according to Vice Admiral Joseph Mulloy at a Senate hearing on Wednesday. "We know they are out experimenting and looking at operating and clearly want to be in this world of advanced submarines," he said. Mulloy said the quality of China's submarines was lower than those built by the United States, but the size of its undersea fleet had now surpassed that of the U.S. fleet.
China has been building numerous missile systems and other weaponry with no other purpose than to attack American cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers. Generational Dynamics predicts that China is preparing to launch a pre-emptive full-scale nuclear missile attack on the United States. In the generational crisis war to follow, there is no guarantee that the United States will survive. Reuters and Washington Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Feb-15 World View -- US Navy says that China now has more attack submarines than US thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Feb-2015)
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US CPI continues in deflation, as Europe offers negative interest bonds
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Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Yemen is leaving the capital city Sanaa and moving to the southern city of Aden. Other Arab countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to follow suit.
Shia Iran-backed ethnic Houthis from northern Yemen last October invaded and occupied Sanaa. The constitutional president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi last month first resigned then escaped the Houthis and fled to Aden, where he has a power base among Sunni tribes.
Now Hadi is essentially setting up Aden as a second capital, splitting the country into North and South Yemen. North and South Yemen were separate countries that were united in 1990, but it now appears that they're close to splitting into two countries again.
For the West, the biggest fear is that all this chaos will give rise to a stronger Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is headquartered in Yemen. With regard to this point, there are some analysts saying that AQAP will not gain strength, because both Hadi and the Houthis oppose AQAP. However, there are now three major centers of power in Yemen -- the Houthis, Hadi in Aden, and AQAP -- and the possibility of a new civil war cannot be discounted.
As UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently said, the country "is collapsing before our eyes." National Yemen and Washington Post
Fears of economic collapse are causing Yemen citizens to withdraw their US dollar savings from banks and keep the dollars at home. Yemen is facing economic collapse for several reasons:
It's possible that the Sanaa government will soon be unable to pay salaries within a few weeks. The economic collapse represents a recruiting opportunity for Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Widespread protests and riots, as well as terrorist acts by AQAP, are expected to increase. Bloomberg
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The US Labor Department said on Thursday that its consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.7% in January, after falling the previous two months as well. In the 12 months through January, the CPI fell 0.1% over the year. The economy continues its deflationary spiral that is predicted by Generational Dynamics.
Europe has clearly been in a deflationary spiral for a couple of years, with January's inflation rate at -0.6%. On Thursday, Germany announced that it will sell five-year bonds at negative yields (interest rates) for the first time ever. That means that if you have a lot of money and you want to put it into the bank for safety, then you have to pay the bank money to keep it.
Five-year bonds from four other eurozone countries -- Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Finland -- also have negative yields.
The negative interest rates are forcing investors to look for other places to invest, and one of those places is Wall Street, which is part of the reason for the surge in stock prices.
The result is that the Wall Street stock market bubble is exploding to new highs. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (February 20) is still at an astronomically high 19.79. This is far above the historical average of 14. It's a large jump from last month, and it's a fresh high in recent years. This indicates that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower. It's best to keep money in cash, even in the face of mild deflation, because you stand to lose a great deal of money if/when the stock market crashes. Reuters and Investment Week and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Feb-15 World View -- Arab countries moving Yemen ambassadors from Sanaa to Aden thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Feb-2015)
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Greece's PM Tsipras faces opposition from EU bailout deal
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During the January election campaign in Greece, radical far-left candidate Alexis Tsipras promised that he would stand up to the Europeans: He would get half the Greek debt written off, and "We will not govern with anybody who follows the policies of Mrs Merkel," referring to Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel. Voters enthusiastically elected him, and Prime Minister Tsipras has had almost 80% public support in the polls.
The jury is out whether his public support will wane once it sinks in with the public that none of the Greek debt was written off, and that, except for a few minor adjustments, the austerity programs will continue as before -- almost a complete cave-in to the demands of Angela Merkel.
Tsipras really had no choice. Money was pouring out of Greece's banks at the rate of billions of dollars per week, and deposited in foreign banks in case Greece's banks collapsed. Greece desperately needed the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue supplying liquidity to the Greek Banks, and that meant that Tsipras had to agree to Merkel's terms before the coming weekend, when the old bailout program officially ends.
News reports indicate that Tsipras spend 10 hours on Wednesday meeting with officials in his own left-wing Syriza party, to sell them on the agreement and convince them not to pull his support. Presumably the pragmatists will support him, and the left-wing hardliners will not.
As I've said repeatedly, no solution exists for the Greek financial crisis, and the longer it's prolonged, the worse it gets. The new bailout agreement makes the problem worse because Greece's financial deficit will increase a bit, because of the adjustments that were made to the original plan.
However, last week's agreement apparently kicked the can down the road four months, until July, when the crisis will be worse than it was last week. Kathimerini and BBC and Kathimerini
Cyprus on Wednesday signed a military deal with Russia giving Russian military ships access to Cyprus's ports on in the Mediterranean Sea.
Russia has been a silent third partner in the financial crisis negotiations between Europe and Greece, and also in last year's financial crisis negotiations between Europe and Cyprus, because Russia sees them as an opportunity to go around Brussels and gain a foothold in Europe. Russia has offered financial aid to both Cyprus and Greece. Russia has now signed this military agreement with Cyprus, and has also offered to expand military-technical collaboration with Greece, if the latter requests it.
Some analysts doubt that anything meaningful will come from Russia's military agreement with Cyprus. According to one Russian analyst, "To speak of a Russian military presence in Cyprus, on the territory of an EU state, is beyond strange. It just makes no sense. I am certain the president of Cyprus will retract his statement, which is being used as a tool to put pressure on the EU, in my opinion." Reuters and Kathimerini and Moscow Times and Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Feb-15 World View -- Cyprus gives Russia access to Cypriot ports on the Mediterranean thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Feb-2015)
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John Kerry says that Russia has repeatedly lied to his face
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The Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) abducted around 90 Assyrian Christians in Syria, in a pre-dawn raid as part of a larger offensive on Assyrian villages in the area. ISIS took over several villages in the offensive. The Assyrian villages were supposed to be under the protection of the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG), but the pre-dawn attack apparently took everyone by surprise.
It's not known what ISIS's intentions are with the Assyrians. One possibility is that ISIS will post a gruesome video showing them being beheaded, as happened with the Egyptian Coptic Christians who were abducted from Sirte, Libya. Another possibility is that they'll be used as leverage to obtain the release of jailed ISIS terrorists.
Either way, the abduction of scores of Christians is certain to inflame passions in the West, and may soon lead to increased anti-ISIS military action from the US or Nato. Drawing the West into the conflict in Syria and Iraq is thought to be part of the strategy of ISIS. ARA News (Syria) and Long War Journal and CNN
Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that Russian officials have repeatedly lied to him. He was referencing Russia's president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. Kerry said:
"Russia is engaged in a rather remarkable period of the most overt and extensive propaganda exercise that I've seen since the very height of the Cold War. And they have been persisting in their misrepresentations - lies - whatever you want to call them about their activities there to my face, to the face of others on many different occasions."
Long-time readers of Generational Dynamics will not be the least bit surprised that Putin and Lavrov have lied constantly, but they, like me, might be excused for wondering what took Kerry so long to point it out.
In particular, readers may recall what I wrote in 2011 in "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics". Russia had previously abstained on the Security Council vote authorizing the Libya military action, and was now changing policy to use its veto to exercise almost total control over American and Nato foreign policy. Here's what I wrote at the time:
"Russia plans to demand that Nato restrict its activities to only the humanitarian acts allowed by the UN resolution, and then veto any attempt to expand the resolution in the Security Council, in order to guarantee a continued stalemate in Libya.This will set a precedent that allows Russia to effectively control future activities of Nato, since only activities approved by the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever be permitted.
Moscow has a broader interest in seeing the US and NATO tied down in wars of choice and other protracted confrontations. These wars increase Russia’s leeway for action in ex-Soviet territories, which is Russia's top priority, according to the article. Furthermore, if Libya's oil exports are stopped, then Russia's own oil exports become more valuable."
It's now four years later, and it's almost unbelievable how successful this policy has been. Russia has become an international criminal organization, invading Ukraine, annexing Ukrainian territory, supplying weapons to Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad. Putin had been unhappy how the Libya military action, but his policies have had even worse outcomes, provoking war in Ukraine, and pursuing a Syria policy that is the direct cause of the creation of the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
The latest wrinkle is that Putin is now saying that the recent Minsk agreement on Ukraine has been approved by the Security Council, and so has the force of international law. This is laughable because Russia violated the Minsk agreement before the ink was dry, continuing the invasion of Ukraine with Russian troops and weapons. Nonetheless, Putin and Lavrov will continue to demand that the West abide by the Minsk agreement, while Russia continues as a criminal organization, with impunity. CBS News and Global Research and Deutsche Welle
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Feb-15 World View -- ISIS kidnaps around 90 Assyrian Christians in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Feb-2015)
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Greece misses deadline for submitting reforms list
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Although terrorist violence by Sunni groups linked to the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) target both Sunnis and Shias, the amount of sectarian violence targeting Shias in Pakistan has been trending upward for years and is now increasing substantially. TTP-linked groups that I've reported on frequently that attack Shia targets are Lashkar-e Jhangvi (LeJ) and Jundullah.
There have been four major attacks on Shia targets in 2015 alone, including the 30-Jan attack on a Shia mosque in a city just north of Karachi, killing 56 people, as we reported.
There are several factors that make the current round of sectarian attacks much more lethal and more difficult to combat. They used to be restricted to just a few small regions of the country, but now they're spread across the entire country, and using larger bombs that result in more deaths.
The port city of Karachi used to be used by TTP linked groups only for financing and logistics. But as the use of violence increased, TTP terrorists attacked Shiite neighborhoods and processions with mass casualty attacks.
But the primary difference is the relationship between the terrorist groups and Pakistan's government. It was no secret that in the 1980s-90s, the sectarian groups were supported by the government, depended on the government for funding, and were therefore controlled by the government. They were largely coordinated with Saudi Arabia in opposition to Iran and India.
But now, terrorist groups are well endowed, with unregulated funding and weapons pouring in primarily from the Gulf region, including the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Thus, the Pakistan government no longer has any control over these groups, even when these groups attack the government itself.
According to a Pakistan analyst Arif Rafiq, the sectarian conflict in Pakistan is not purely Sunni versus Shia. This is not surprising, given that the country's president from 2008-13 was a prominent Shia leader, Asif Ali Zardari. According to Rafiq, the deadliest sectarian attacks come from a Sunni sub-sect known as the Deobandis, comprising about 20% of the population. The other two major Sunni sub-sects, the Salafis and Barelvis, do not target Shias, and the Barelvis cooperate with the Shias on political issues.
On January 1, 2015, Mian Iftikhar Hussain, the head of Pakistan's Awami National Party (ANP) said that Punjab was a "training center for terrorists and their masterminds. ... Terrorism could not be eliminated from the country until an operation began against terrorist organizations in Punjab." He added, "there should be no distinction between good Taliban and bad Taliban and state institutions should take across-the-board action against terrorists."
As Pakistan hurtles into chaos, it's unlikely that any of these steps are going to be taken. As I've been describing for months, there is a large and growing Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia, of which the sectarian war in Pakistan plays a major part. And with respect to Pakistan and India, it's worth pointing out, as I have in the past, that for centuries, Shia Muslims and Hindus have been allied in wars against Sunni Muslims. The Hindu and Deutsche Welle and South Asia Terrorism Portal
Monday evening was the deadline that Greece committed to last week to submit its list of reforms to the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers to explain how it's going to meet the existing terms of its bailout agreement. Greece has pretty much caved in on every negotiating point, and must now prove explain how it will proceed.
However, Greece missed the Monday evening deadline for providing the list, and says now that it will provide the list on Tuesday morning.
The list of reforms will have to address a number of economic issues, including the bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.
Once they receive the list, the Eurogroup will have three possible responses: Total acceptance, total rejection, or a call for further negotiations. Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Feb-15 World View -- Sectarian violence surging all across Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Feb-2015)
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Deadly MERS virus surging early in Saudi Arabia
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World health officials are concerned about a new outbreak of MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus) in Saudi Arabia that's killed 17 people in the last 11 days, including 6 on one day on Thursday of last week. Although the outbreak is still small, officials are concerned because it's surging much earlier this year than last year. An international team of United Nations human and animal health experts has flown to Saudi Arabia to investigate the recent surge.
Since June 2012, the deadly virus has claimed 382 lives out of 899 infections. There are currently 29 people being treated at various health facilities across the Kingdom.
Last year, there was a great deal of concern that MERS would be spread around the world by millions of people who came to Mecca on October 2-7, 2014, for the Hajj, their once in a lifetime pilgrimage. Saudi officials took numerous precautions, with the result that apparently no new MERS cases occurred from the Hajj.
This year the Hajj is a little earlier, September 20-25, so all those precautions will have to be repeated and increased. Arab News and Reuters
This season's outbreak of H1N1 swine flu in India has so far sickened more than 11,000 people, and killed 703, the worst outbreak since 2009. As of February 11, there were 5,157 reported cases, so the number of reported cases more than doubled in 8 days. Times of India and Bloomberg
Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday have a nationwide television address in which he called on all Arab nations to join together to create a joint military force to fight terrorism.
This call comes a week after ISIS-linked terrorists posted a video of the massacre of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in the town of Sirte in neighboring Libya. "16-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt in mourning as ISIS-linked terrorists kill Coptic Christians in Libya" The attack itself was a shock to all of Egypt, and triggered an immediate response ordered by al-Sisi for air strikes on the assets of the terrorist group, Ansar al-Sharia, that perpetrated the massacre.
Another shock occurred when Egypt received almost none of the international sympathy that Jordan received after its pilot was killed by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), with even the U.S. and European administrations cool to Egypt's plight. Then Qatar criticized the Egyptian air strikes, reopening the bitter rift between Egypt and Qatar, and causing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to side with Qatar in order to prevent the rift from worsening. It may be that the only major power that sympathized with Egypt was Israel.
The chaos in Libya has the potential of further worsening the Arab rift. There are two competing governments in Libya, one in Tripoli considered to be Islamist, and one internationally recognized government in Tobruk in the west. There have been reports, denied by Qatar, that Qatar is siding with the Islamist government, and has been supplying weapons to Ansar al-Sharia. Whether that's true or not, the continuing deterioration in Libya is threatening to worsen an already overwhelming situation with refugees crossing the Mediterranean for Italy.
There have been unconfirmed reports in the past of discussions of a military pact between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait. These discussions now appear to be on tract, with Jordan and Algeria joining, and with France and Italy also joining, because of the refugee danger to Europe. The National (UAE) and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Jerusalem Post
The President of the Republic of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan has sent a letter of condolence to Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi. The letter said, "During this difficult time of grief and sorrow, I express my full support for you, the friendly people of Egypt and for the relatives of the victims, wishing them steadfastness and strong spirit."
Looking at the Mideast checkerboard, Egypt and Armenia have Turkey as a common enemy. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been bitterly critical of Egypt's 2013 coup that overthrew Mohamed Morsi, and Turkey and Armenia have been embroiled in a century-long disagreement over whether Turkey committed a genocide of Armenians in 1915. Turkey is also a close ally of Qatar, and an enemy of Israel. Armen Press (Armenia)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt's al-Sisi calls for a joint Arab military force thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Feb-2015)
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Nigeria's army recaptures Baga, site of 2,000 deaths in Boko Haram massacres
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Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Yemen's constitutional president, achieved a colorful escape on Saturday from his Houthi captors in Sanaa, and fled to his political stronghold in Aden, in south Yemen. From there, he issued a statement declaring that all Houthi decisions made since the September 21 coup were "null and illegitimate."
The 9/21 coup by the Iran-backed Shia al-Houthi militias took control of the ministerial government functions in Sanaa, and forced the Sunni president Hadi to resign on January 21. It had been thought that the Houthis wanted Hadi to stay in office, where he could be controlled by the Houthis, who would then have the power but the not responsibilities of governing. Hadi's resignation caused a power vacuum that has never been filled. The Houthis arrested Hadi and kept him prisoner in his home in Sanaa.
How did Hadi escape? It's already becoming an urban legend. One story is that he covered himself in a head-to-toe Muslim woman's burka that exposed only the eyes, and pretended to be a woman. Another story is that he hid in the food truck when it came to deliver his food for the day. Another was that the Houthis let him go as part of a deal with the United Nations, which the U.N. denies.
From Aden, he issued a "presidential statement," implying that he's retracting his resignation. He said that every Houthi decision and appointment must be reversed, and that all people abducted or under house arrest should be freed.
There are many questions about what Hadi is going to do next. Aden is a Sunni stronghold, and one possibility is that he may declare Aden to be the new capital of Yemen, and characterize Sanaa as a secessionist capital, which would amount to a declaration of war between the Shia Houthis and the Sunni militias supporting him.
Yemen is the home of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Last year, President Obama referred to Yemen as an administration success story, since the military was successfully using drone missiles to attack AQAP officials in cooperation with Yemen's government, but without requiring US troops. Both the Houthis and Hadi are opposed to AQAP, and two AQAP members were killed in a drone strike on Friday. So apparently the drone strikes are continuing, which is kind of an ironic twist. Still, Yemen began deteriorating last year soon after President Obama's statement last year, and the deterioration is continuing, with the possibility of war in sight, as part of the general deterioration of the entire Mideast that we've been reporting on. Yemen Online and Military Times
Nigerian says that its army has recaptured the town of Baga from Boko Haram terrorists after several days of fighting that resulted in "heavy casualties." Baga was the site of a massive Boko Haram massacre last month. ( "10-Jan-15 World View -- Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre")
According to the army, many Boko Haram militants had been killed, with some of them drowning in Lake Chad as they tried to flee from the approaching army.
Last month's massacre at Baga was almost completely ignored by the international media when it occurred, while the murder in the same time frame of a few white reporters in the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris received intense coverage around the world. Some political analysts suggested that the NY Times, NBC News and Al Sharpton consider a dead black person to be of no worth or interest whatsoever unless killed by a white cop.
Early this month, Nigeria announced that the February 14 presidential elections would be postponed until March 28 because of threats by Boko Haram to disrupt the election to terrorist attacks. The political opposition of the current president, Goodluck Jonathan, wondered why the security threats would be any better on March 28, and accused the government of postponing the election to give Jonathan time to fix the election.
The recapture of Baga has a symbolic value, and the army will now claim that it's a success that will make the March 28 election safer.
International assistance is increasingly flowing to Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad to fight Boko Haram. On Saturday, a consignment of military equipment from the United States military arrived in Cameroon. BBC and Osun Defender (Nigeria) and VOA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Feb-15 World View -- Yemen's president flees to Aden, calls Houthis 'illegitimate' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Feb-2015)
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Greece apparently caves in on bailout crisis
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The investigators at the U.N. Commission for Inquiry on Syria announced on Friday that there has been an 'exponential rise" in atrocities killed in Syria, and that, because Russia's veto prevents the Security Council from taking any action, they may go around the Security Council and reveal a list of alleged war criminals in Syria. The list is thought likely to contain the name of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
The Commission would have liked to refer the case to the International Criminal Court (ICC), but that requires a vote of the Security Council, which Russia always blocks with a veto. The Commission is therefore recommending a special court without Security Council approval.
United Nations investigators found a way to go around the Security Council once before. After Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas to kill hundreds of people in 2013, a U.N. chemical weapons team was authorized to investigate the incident. However, thanks to a threatened Russian veto, the U.N. team was forbidden from assigning blame for the Sarin attack. But the team found a clever way of assigning blame without having to say it. In their scientific analysis of the evidence, they included calculations of the trajectories of the rockets that delivered the Sarin gas. They drew no conclusions about where the rockets were launched, but they provided enough scientific information within the report so that experts studying the report could analyze the trajectories to prove that the rockets must have been launched from a Syrian Republican Guard unit.
Bashar al-Assad has been a modern day Hitler. He's flattened entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed dozens with sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In addition, he's used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale, and does with complete impunity, and in fact with encouragement and support from Russia and Iran. Russia in particular has been providing weapons to al-Assad to support his genocide, making Vladimir Putin a war criminal as well.
If the war criminal list is made public, then it will be done at the meeting of the UN Human Rights Council on March 17th. United Nations and BBC and VOA
The Eurogroup of eurozone financial ministers meeting in Brussels on Friday announced a new deal with Greece that extends the bailout loan agreement for four months. The agreement was an almost total cave-in by the Greeks; however, there was one important concession: The Greeks will not be required to have a higher government surplus in 2015 than in 2014, which means that there will be no further austerity measures imposed this year. Other than that, the terms of the agreement were similar to those of Greece's previous government, and an abandonment of the promises that the new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, made during his recent election campaign.
The terms of the agreement are as follows:
Remember when we used to talk about "kicking the can down the road"? Amazingly enough, the Europeans have done it again.
If anything goes wrong with all of these steps, then the plan will collapse, and Greece will go bankrupt, and probably be forced to leave the eurozone, to return to its old drachma currency.
But if all goes well, then by April the crisis will be resolved. Until June, when a new 3.5 billion euro debt payment comes due, and the whole crisis starts all over again.
It's worth repeating what I've been saying for several years: There is NO solution to this crisis. And by that I don't mean that no one has been clever enough to figure out a solution. I mean that no solution exists. So the only thing the Europeans can do is to keep postponing the problem -- kicking the can down the road, allowing the crisis to worsen each time. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Feb-15 World View -- U.N. may release list of Syrian war criminals thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Feb-2015)
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Libya chaos threatens to reopen bitter rift between Qatar and Egypt
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Here's a brief summary of Thursday's action in Greece's financial crisis:
The Eurogroup summit of eurozone finance ministers will meet in emergency session on Friday to see if negotiations can yield a compromise. Germany, Finland and Slovakia appear to be taking a hard line towards Greece, while France and Italy appear to be more open to compromise. If there is no compromise, then Greece will completely run out of money sometime in March. Greek Reporter and Deutsche Welle and Kathimerini
Last week's slaughter of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in Libya by ISIS-linked Ansar al-Sharia has resulted in a chain of events that led Qatar to recall its ambassador to Egypt on Thursday, threatening to reopen a very bitter rift in the Arab world that followed last summer's Gaza war with Israel. The major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war, brought Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the Palestinian Authority into alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey plus the Muslim Brotherhood. The split between Qatar and Egypt had been particularly vitriolic prior to the war, ever since the ouster of Mohamed Morsi, but after the Gaza war the split between the Saudis and Qataris was equally vitriolic. Saudi King Abdullah acted as a mediator and was able to paper over the differences and obtain a reconciliation in time for an Arab summit meeting in December, but now King Abdullah has passed away.
The split between Qatar and Egypt was too vitriolic never to resurface, and now it's in danger to be doing so. The slaughter of the Egyptian Coptics has caused nationalism to surge in Egypt, resulting in an immediate decision by Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi to launch airstrikes on Ansar al-Sharia camps and weapons depots in Libya. Egypt says that its airstrikes were carried out in coordination with Libya's air force.
Because Egypt is fighting a two-front war, against Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) in north Sinai and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya, both ISIS-linked, Egypt is requesting international help in Libya.
The Arab League initially offered Egypt its full backing on the airstrikes in Libya, saying that Egypt had the right to defend itself and its citizens. But Qatar refused, and said it was concerned the strikes could harm civilians and criticized Egypt for not consulting with other Arab states before launching the airstrikes.
The furious Arab League delegate Tareq Adel from Egypt accused Qatar of "supporting terrorism and deviating from the Arab consensus." Qatar responded by withdrawing its ambassador from Cairo.
In an attempt to keep the rift from worsening, the head of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of Gulf Arab nations condemned Egypt's comments as "baseless accusations that defy the truth and ignore the sincere efforts made by the State of Qatar with GCC member states and the Arab countries to combat terrorism and extremism at all levels." AFP and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Cairo Post
Myanmar's president Thein Sein on Tuesday declared a state of emergency and imposed martial law in the Kokang Special Region of Burma, on the border with China. The Kokang people are ethnic Chinese who even use a Chinese phone network and spend Chinese money in this region. The Kokang Special Region was created in 1989 after the collapse of Burma's Communist Party. In 2009, Burma's army intervened to end the arms and drug-trafficking networks, forcing the corrupt Kokang leader Pheung Kya-shin, born 1931, to flee across the border into China with 30,000 refugees.
In late December, octogenarian Pheung made a surprise return from China to the Kokang region, and triggered a major ethnic rebellion that's resulted in the deaths of both Kokang people and Burmese soldiers. That violence has continued, and is increasing, resulting in this week's imposition of martial law throughout the region.
In 2007, at the height of the nationwide riots, I provided a generational history of Burma back to the 1700s. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter") Since then, Burma's army has loosened its grip on the country, allowing more political freedom. But Burma's last crisis war was a bloody civil war among ethnic groups, with intervention by the Chinese. That war climaxed in 1958, meaning that Burma is now entering a new generational Crisis era, so it's no surprise that there's a new explosion of ethnic violence.
President Thein Sein is asking China's government to take steps to keep the Kokang army from launching attacks on Burma from China's soil, but China is not responding.
The major concern is that China's army will intervene on Burma's soil, as it did during the 1950s civil war, using as an excuse the protection of ethnic Chinese, the same excuse that Russia is using to invade Ukraine. BBC and AFP and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Feb-15 World View -- Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar) thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Feb-2015)
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Anthem health insurance data breach puts millions of children at risk
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The consequences of the massive Anthem Inc data breach that we described two weeks ago are increasingly being seen as catastrophic. 80 million current and former customers had their personal information compromised, including birthdates, addresses, and social security numbers.
This is bad enough for adults, but there are millions of children included in that theft. A child's identity can be stolen as much as an adult's can, and the child's family not even be aware for several months.
Even worse, the stolen data will be valid for decades. Some hacker group can use it to steal your child's identity next year, or five or ten years from now.
Anthem is providing free identity theft protection, but only for two years.
Any current or former customer of the following health plans is potentially compromised: Anthem Blue Cross, Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore, Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare. Credit.com and CNBC and Anthem Inc.
The battle over the city Debaltseve in Ukraine, which we described yesterday, has ended in victory for Ukraine's rebels, backed by Russian army soldiers and weapons, and a humiliating defeat for Ukraine's soldiers. The Russian attack and subsequent victory was a violation of the the ceasefire agreement that was signed last week by Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
Putin gloated about the victory, saying:
"Of course, it’s always bad to lose. Of course it’s always a hardship when you lose to yesterday’s miners or yesterday’s tractor drivers. But life is life. It’ll surely go on."
He perhaps unintentionally implied that Russian army soldiers are former miners and tractor drivers. At any rate, it now appears clear that he never intended to honor the ceasefire which, after all, is no surprise.
The capture of Debaltseve is an important strategic victory for the Russians, in that it lies at several crossroads in east Ukraine, with a rail line that links Debaltseve to Russia, and consolidates the Russian invasion and capture of the entire region. According to analysts, the fall of Debaltseve is both a military disaster and political disaster Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko. He faced massive domestic criticism for agreeing to the Minsk "peace agreement" in the first place, for making painful compromises that ceded gains on the ground to the Russians, and now the agreement turns out to be a sham after all, with the Russians gaining consolidated control of a large part of eastern Ukraine.
Few people believe that the Russian invasion is finished. BBC and Deutsche Welle and Fox News
As I've been describing for a couple of years, China has been using a "salami-slicing" technique of using military force to annex one portion after another of regions of the South China Sea historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China supports its military force by making unsupported historical claims, and then refusing to defend them in the appropriate United Nations tribunal, since they know they'll lose.
The salami-slicing technique is designed to take advantage of the inherent weakness of democracies during generational Crisis eras. The technique would not have worked as well, or at all, prior to 2000, since the Silent generation survivors of World War II were still in charge, and would not have been fooled or tolerated specious claims like those that China is making about the South China Sea. Indeed, all presidents since WW II have been guided by the Truman Doctrine of 1947, which made America policeman of the world. The doctrine is highly controversial today, but its justification is that it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. In other words, the Truman Doctrine could be said to be the antidote to the salami-slicing strategy.
Every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to completely repudiate the Truman Doctrine, even in the face of blatant salami-slicing. And he's not alone, of course, as the entire West is succumbing.
So we have China annexing one region after another in the South China Sea, using as an excuse specious historical claims that the West is unwilling to challenge. Russia invaded and annexed first Crimea and now east Ukraine, using the specious excuse that there are ethnic Russians living there. There are over a million Americans living in Mexico, so under the Russian reasoning, America could invade and annex the entire state of Nuevo León.
Probably the most visible and consequential repudiation of the Truman Doctrine was President Obama's flip-flop on the question of Sarin gas and other chemical weapons used by the regime of Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad against his own people. To this day, he's killed countless innocent women and children with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.
Now we have news on Thursday from Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. envoy to Syria, that al-Assad has agreed to a "freeze" in dropping barrel bombs on the city of Aleppo. The "freeze" will take place some time in the future, to be announced. Like China's specious historical claims, like Russia's ethnic Russian excuse, al-Assad waves a sham peace plan in front of the United Nations and everyone starts tittering about a "ray of hope." This is another version of the salami-slicing strategy, and it's possible in a generational Crisis era.
There is a flaw in the salami-slicing strategy. Once a government starts using it, they think they can use it over and over to get away with anything. It's pretty clear that Russia, China and Syria all believe that they can commit crimes with impunity.
But the flaw is that at some point it stops working. That's what happened in 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland. Hitler was certain that he could take one more salami slice with impunity. But the British population by that time had changed, and become sufficiently nationalistic to refuse to be made fools of again.
I've been describing for years how one nation after another is becoming increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic in a generational Crisis era. So you have two conflicting trends: the criminal nation becomes increasingly brazen in using the salami-slicing strategy, and the other nations become increasingly nationalistic and less tolerant. At some point, these two trends collide, and there's a new world war -- a war that might have been avoided if a policy like the Truman Doctrine had been continued -- or was even still possible. International Living and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Feb-15 World View -- China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Feb-2015)
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New Zealand debating military help for Iraq against ISIS
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A suicide bomber detonated his bomb on Tuesday early afternoon in the large east Pakistan city of Lahore, in Punjab province, killing as many as 11 people, and injuring dozens more. The target was a police station. The carnage could have been much worse, but the suicide bomber was stopped by heavy security before entering the building.
Jamaatul Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP), has claimed responsibility. According to the Jamaatul Ahrar spokesman, the attack was revenge for the anti-Taliban military operations being conducted in Pakistan's tribal areas, and for hangings of several convicted terrorists. The military action was triggered by a massive terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi last year in June. The hangings began after the horrific Taliban attack on a Peshawar army school, killing over 130 schoolchildren in December of last year.
Last Friday, Taliban militants stormed a Shia commemoration service, killing as many as 21 Shia worshippers. Before that was a service in Shikarpur, killing more than 60 people.
As we dwell on atrocities committed in the Mideast by terror groups linked to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), it would be worthwhile to give an occasional thought to Pakistan, where Taliban atrocities are almost a daily way of life. Dawn (Pakistan) and Daily Times (Pakistan)
A ceasefire agreement was signed in Minsk, Belarus, last week, but it's being openly ignored by anti-government Russians who are advancing on the central city of Debaltseve, where 5,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped. The Russians are simply saying that the ceasefire doesn't apply to them, and they're continuing warfare.
A good summary of the situation was provided on Tuesday by William Taylor, former American ambassador to Ukraine, interview on the BBC. He was asked whether the new Minsk ceasefire agreement is going to hold (my transcription):
"It doesn't look good at the moment. All is not lost, it's still possible for the Minsk II agreement to be put into effect, but it has to be put into effect by both sides.The weapons were supposed to have been pulled back by now, well out of range of each other's. This is a tragedy for the people in the cities, tragedy for people who are living there, but it can be resolved by adhering to this agreement.
[[Question: Would you point the finger of blame equally at the rebels and the Ukrainian troops]]
I wouldn't. I would point the blame at the Russian troops who are in eastern Ukraine. There may be rebels there, maybe Ukrainian rebels are there, but there are Russian troops, and Russian soldiers, and Russian units who are there, who are the principal cause of this overall problem.
[[Question: When you look at what's happening, it looks as if those troops have not even paid lip service to what was agreed in Minsk. Did that take the West by surprise do you think?]]
I think it has. The rebels and the Russians who are there in the Debaltseve have said that the Minsk agreement doesn't apply to Debaltseve. Now, what does that mean? They're clearly in the zone that both sides are supposed to pull back from. Of course the Minsk agreement applies to Debaltseve, and of course they should be pulling back, and the ceasefire should have gone into effect."
It's worth repeating again that anything that's said by Russian officials or Russian media is pretty much worthless. Last year, Russia claimed they weren't invading Crimea, just as Russian troops were invading Crimea. Russia claimed that they wouldn't annex Crimea, just before they annexed Crimea, a clear violation of international law. Russia claimed that there were no Russian troops in east Ukraine at a time when Russian troops were entering east Ukraine. On September 5, Russia signed an international peace agreement (the "Minsk protocols") in which they committed to a political compromise in east Ukraine, and then repeatedly violated their own agreement. Now they've signed a new Minsk agreement on February 11, and are simply ignoring it. Basically, anything that comes from Russian state media or Russia's government should be considered to be a lie, and should be discarded as worthless.
The concern now is that the ceasefire will unravel completely and lead to increased violence, including a full-scale invasion by Russia. Washington Post and Russia Today (12-Feb)
After an in-person invitation by Iraq's foreign minister Dr Ibrahim al-Jaafari in a visit to Auckland, New Zealand foreign minister Murray McCully said that plans were being discussed to send about 150 New Zealand troops to Iraq to help train Iraq's army. The suggestion is controversial, with some politicians questioning whether the Iraq army can protect the NZ troops, while others wonder if NZ is getting into "another Vietnam." TV New Zealand and Stuff (New Zealand)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Feb-15 World View -- Russians ignore Ukraine 'ceasefire' as 5,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Feb-2015)
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Greece bailout talks collapse in acrimony
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A meeting on Monday in Brussels by the Eurogroup, the eurozone finance ministers, which was intended to reach agreement on Greece's financial crisis, ended hours earlier than usual in better acrimony.
Greece has been asking for a "bridge loan" -- enough money to survive for six months, but without having to continue the harsh austerity requirements that accompanied the 240 billion euros already loaned to Greece in the bailout program. Europe has rejected this proposal, and given Greece a "take it or leave it" ultimatum to extend the existing bailout program. The European statement said the Greeks must continue with austerity on "tax policy, privatization, labor market reforms, financial sector and pensions." Indeed, any substantial change in Europe's position would require a vote in the German, Dutch, Finnish and Slovak parliaments.
Greece's new finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, from the radical far-left Syriza party, made a bitter statement to the press referred to the European proposal, "an extension of the current program," and calling it "absurd and unreasonable." Indeed, any back-down by Greece's newly elected government would cause a backlash in Greece's public, and a sharp plunge in the new government's poll ratings.
Greece has only two weeks left to come to some agreement, before a huge bond payment comes due. The Greek government is not allowed to borrow money -- issue government bonds. The bailout funding has been suspended, because the Greek government has said it no longer wants to cooperating with the bailout program. The Greek government only has tax revenues to live off of, which won't be enough to pay public sector salaries, pay off pensions which the new government wants to increase, and make debt payments. And Greece's banks are bleeding deposits by two billion euros per week.
According to reports, Greece accepts 70% of the committed austerity requirements, and rejects 30%, but hasn't revealed which requirements are in each category. Some hope that this can form the basis for a compromise.
The Eurogroup has given Greece a Friday deadline to agree to the bailout requirements. The sides are headed for a collision, unless they can quickly figure out a way to kick the can down the road. Kathimerini (Athens) and Telegraph (London)
Egypt's army announced on Monday morning that it has conducted air strikes against militant targets in Libya, including training camps in arms depots. The airstrikes were revenge attacks after a terror group linked to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) released a video portraying the beheading of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christian fishermen who had gone to Libya to earn money to send back home. Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi had on Sunday given a nationally televised address wherein he vowed to choose the "necessary means and timing to avenge the criminal killings."
Egypt is now facing a two-front war against terrorist groups linked to ISIS. The terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) has conducted numerous attacks in Egypt's Sinai, along the border with Israel and Gaza, and has recently changed its name to "Sinai Province," meaning "Sinai Province of Islamic State" when it repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its allegiance to ISIS.
Libya's terror group Ansar al-Sharia has likewise renamed itself Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus (Caliphate State Tripolitania) when it repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its allegiance to ISIS.
Egypt is fighting ABM with ground troops is Sinai, and for that reason it's believed that Egypt does not have the military resources to send ground troops into Libya. For that reason, Egypt, France and Italy are calling on the United States and the international community to resume military action in Libya. Al Ahram (Cairo) and CNN
As I've been writing for weeks, there is a large and growing Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia. The Muslims are not at war with the West, as many claim, but they're almost entirely at war with each other. This Muslim versus Muslim war is going to continue to grow until the West is pulled into it, and then the West WILL be at war with some Muslims, allied with others.
There is a tendency to view this situation as similar to the rise of Hitler and the Nazis, with ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi taking on the role of Hitler, commanding armies all over the Mideast. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's not what's going on.
Much (though not all) of the Muslim world is deep into a generational Crisis era, with the last crisis being the collapse of the Ottoman empire, followed by wars of consolidation in the 1920s-30s. Based on historical research that I've been doing for years, countries and societies suffer increasing societal breakdowns as the decades pass since the end of the previous generational crisis war. The "Arab Spring" that started in Tunisia in 2011 was the first major societal breakdown in the Muslim world, and what we're seeing is an increasing societal breakdown.
So, in my opinion, what we're seeing is not the formation of a unified ISIS army waging war against other Muslims, at least not yet, but a general societal breakdown where local, individual terror groups like Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis and Ansar al-Sharia find it convenient to declare allegiance to ISIS for public relations purposes.
Ironically, instead of a unified ISIS army, what we may be seeing is the mirror image. The "moderate" Arab nations have been notably reluctant to take part in the U.S. anti-ISIS coalition. However, what ISIS's public relations stunts have accomplished is an increased realization of many Arab countries, including Jordan, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and now Egypt, to understand that their national security depends on fighting ISIS and terror groups linked to it. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Independent (London)
Last June, when IS militias attacked Mosul, the Iraq army just dropped its weapons and ran away. Now, according to prime minister Haider al-Abadi, the Iraq army has been scoring successes, pushing back ISIS from areas across Iraq, although ISIS still controls about a quarter of Iraqi territory. According to Abadi, Iraq is planning an offensive this year to recapture Mosul from ISIS. Although US ground troops will not be needed, Abadi said the operation's success would also hinge upon close co-ordination between Iraqi security forces, the US military, and the Peshmerga. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt faces two-front war with airstrikes in Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Feb-2015)
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Yemen may form second government in Aden
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Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has called a national security emergency and declared seven days of national mourning, after a terrorist group released a video showing the beheading in Libya of Egyptian Coptic Christians. The video was released on a web site belonging to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The people shown were among 27 Egyptian Coptic Christian workers who were kidnapped in the Libyan city of Sirte in December and January.
The beheading video comes two days after an ISIS online magazine display pictures of 21 hostages, accompanied by the text:
"This month, the soldiers of the Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus [Caliphate State Tripolitania] captured 21 Coptic crusaders, almost five years after the blessed operation against the Baghdad church executed in revenge for Kamilia Shehata, Wafa Constantine, and other sisters who were tortured and murdered by the Coptic Church of Egypt."
Apparently, Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus is the renamed version of the terror group Ansar al-Sharia, presumably renamed when it repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and swore its allegiance to ISIS.
The "blessed operation" apparently refers to the October 2010 bombing of a Catholic Church in Baghdad. The "other sisters" apparently refers to unsubstantiated claims that Egyptian Christian women who converted to Islam were tortured and killed by the Coptic Orthodox Church.
Last year, there were an estimated one million Egyptian guest workers in Libya, but the numbers have shrunk considerably since civil war broke out last summer between the Libya Dawn government in Tripoli and the internationally recognized Libyan government which has fled to Tobruk. The 21 hostages have been identified as fishermen from an impoverished village in northern Egypt. Al Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and Guardian (London)
Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday vowed to choose the "necessary means and timing to avenge the criminal killings," for the murder of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians by an ISIS-linked militia in Libya, but military action in Libya has been considered for some time. The murder is increasing public pressure on al-Sisi to take some action to counter the increasing security threats from jihadist militias in Libya. Egypt has in the past denied that it had taken part in airstrikes in Libya, and said that no airstrikes are planned. It now appears that airstrikes are on the table, though ground troops are apparently not being considered at this time. The border between Egypt and Libya has become almost lawless, and cross-border attacks into Egypt have become common.
On Thursday, Egypt announced that it will sign on Monday a $5.7 billion deal to purchase 24 Dassault Aviation Rafale fighter jets, a naval frigate and related military equipment from France. The purchase will be partially funded by France and by an Arab country, either United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia. Egypt is no longer receiving military aid from the United States, as the Obama administration cut it off after the 2013 coup that deposed president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government.
Libya itself is almost in total chaos, with two different governments. The government in the west is Libya Dawn, with Islamists and militia from the Misrata region, in control of the capital city Tripoli. The second government is the internationally recognized government, which was forced to flee to Tobruk in the east. The al-Qaeda linked terrorist group, Ansar al-Sharia, has been operating in Libya with headquarters in Benghazi, where it was responsible for the attack that killed American ambassador J. Christopher Stevens in 2012. However, based on Sunday's news reports, it appears that Ansar al-Sharia is no longer allied with al-Qaeda, and has now pledged itself to ISIS and renamed itself Khilafah in Wilayat Tarabulus [Caliphate State Tripolitania].
Egypt is facing increasing threats from ISIS-linked militants. There have been other abductions of Egyptian workers by Libyan militias. In the Sinai, along the border with Gaza and Israel, there have been a series of terrorist attacks. There have been recent reports that Israel and Egypt and planning joint military operations to target terrorists in Sinai. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and France 24 and Debka
The governments of three Yemen provinces, Aden, Lahij, and Mahra, met in Aden on Sunday to discuss the situation following the government takeover last month by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis of Yemen's government in Sanaa. The leaders of the three provinces announced that they support the country becoming a federation as discussed at meetings last year. They called for the reinstatement of the president and for the militia to step down.
Yemen seems to be going down the same road as Libya, with the possibility of two governments -- a rebel government in the capital city Sanaa, and an internationally recognized government in Aden. There's the additional complication that Yemen is the headquarters of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which may either fight with or try to control a second government in Aden.
Also on Sunday, the UN Security Council prepared to adopt a resolution calling on the Houthis to step aside or "face consequences." The Security Council resolution is being supported by the Arab League and by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). According to a GCC statement, "In the case of failure to reach an agreement ... the GCC member states will take measures which enable them to maintain their vital interests in the security and stability of Yemen."
However, a Houthi spokesman responded to the GCC's comments, calling them "provocative blackmail": "The Yemeni people won’t cede power in the face of threats." Arab News and The National (UAE)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt in mourning as ISIS-linked terrorists kill Coptic Christians in Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Feb-2015)
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Nigeria requests US troops to fight Boko Haram
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Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan on Friday said in an interview that he wants the U.S. to help Nigeria fight Boko Haram. In the past, Jonathan has rejected the idea of foreign troops on Nigeria's soil, but now he noted that U.S. troops are fighting the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) and has apparently has changed his mind:
"Are they not fighting ISIS? Why can't they come to Nigeria? They are our friends. If Nigeria has a problem, then I expect the US to come and assist us."
However, Pentagon spokesman Rear-Admiral John Kirby said, "I can tell you that there are no plans as I speak here to send unilaterally, to send or to add US troops into Nigeria. There are no US troops operating in Nigeria."
This reminds me of the situation involving the Darfur war during the George Bush administration. In 2004, "peace activist" Jesse Jackson condemned President Bush for sending troops to the Iraq war, but called on Bush to lead a worldwide effort to send troops to Darfur. He said, "If we can have troops in Korea, in Nato, there should be nothing shameful about defending life in Africa."
In 2007, then-Senator Joe Biden criticized President Bush continuing to be involved in Iraq, but for not getting involved Darfur:
"The conduct of this [Iraq] war has so badly damaged our readiness; the conduct of this war and the blood and resources we've had to expend has limited our credibility around the world, and limited our flexibility in terms of the use of force. Here we are - we could end the carnage in Darfur tomorrow."
This statement came shortly after he demanded that American troops be sent to Darfur:
"I would use American force now. I think it's not only time not to take force off the table. I think it's time to put force on the table and use it. ... Let's stop the bleeding. I think it's a moral imperative."
Other "peace activists" at the time were more explicit in saying that President Bush was willing to send troops to help white people, but not to send black people in Africa. Susan Rice, the current National Security Advisor, was particularly vocal in demands to send troops to Darfur.
So let's see if anyone asks this administration why they're willing to fight terrorists in Iraq and Syria killing white people, but not willing to fight terrorists in Nigeria killing black people. Naij.com (Nigeria) and AFP
Following the capture and murder of the Jordanian pilot by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL), the Arab nations that were announced to be part of the US administration's anti-ISIS coalition have been dropping out. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait have dropped out of the coalition completely. There is absolutely no chance that Egypt will join the coalition, as had originally been hoped. United Arab Emirates (UAE) has partially remained in the coalition.
The latest edition of Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber), contains a detailed analysis of the US anti-ISIS strategy, based on its own intelligence sources. I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's point of view, and sometimes gets things wrong.
According to the analysis, Obama is taking every step possible to avoid being drawn into another Iraq war. While he's criticized for having no strategy, he actually does have a strategy: to "dump that war in Iran's lap" by using the nuclear weapons talks to draw Iran into fighting ISIS instead of us.
Here's an outline of the analysis:
Long-time readers are aware that ten years ago I wrote, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would become America's ally as the generation of survivors of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution died off, and that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia would be allied with China against us. Ten years ago, that prediction seemed insane. So it's been fascinating and astonishing, in the last two years, to see that prediction come closer to reality every week.
This is a good time to repeat something I've written about several times. There is no doubt in my mind that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. Iran was attacked with weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in 1988 by Iraq, and Iran would already have developed nuclear weapons if Saddam Hussein hadn't been expelled by the Iraq war in 2003. Iran sees itself surrounded by potential enemies, Pakistan and Israel, both having nuclear weapons. For Iran, developing nuclear weapons is an existential issue.
However, as I've described before, Iran takes an enormous amount of pride in not having invaded other countries, even though other countries have invaded Iran. If you look back at Iran's major wars of the last century -- the Constitutional Revolution of 1908-09, the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, Iran never attacked anyone else. This is now part of Iran's DNA, and even the top leadership would be repulsed by the idea of a preemptive attack on Israel.
So my conclusion is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons as a defensive measure, but has no plans at all to use them on Israel, which is what is widely believed. Guardian (London) and Debka
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Feb-15 World View -- Obama seeks Iran's help as anti-ISIS coalition shrinks thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Feb-2015)
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Generational Dynamics and prolactin
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On Thursday, 10,000 people joined hands along the Elbe river commemorating the tens of thousands of people who were burned alive on February 13, 1945, when the Allies firebombed Dresden. In the space of 23 minutes, hundreds of bombers dropped some 3,000 high-explosive bombs and 400,000 incendiary bombs. The city center was vaporized. The fires sucked up all the oxygen, so that those who weren't burned to death dies of suffocation. The fires could be seen 200 miles away, and the temperatures reached so high that glass melted in cellars.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the firebombing of Dresden is looked at as part of the "explosive climax" of a generational crisis war. Non-crisis wars almost always end indecisively, as in the case of America's Korean and Iraq wars. (The Vietnam war ended decisively as a victory for Vietnam because, although it was a non-crisis war for America, it a crisis war for Vietnam.)
There are many events that contributed to the explosive climax of World War II, but the following three are perhaps the best-known:
What these three events have in common is that they illustrate something that happens in a crisis war that doesn't happen in a non-crisis war: As the war approaches an end, the value of an individual human live drops to zero, and the only thing of value is the survival of the entire society and its way of life.
This happens to every society, every nation, without exception at the climax of a generational crisis war. When a society becomes desperate enough, they will take steps so horrible that the traumatized survivors will spend the rest of their lives feeling guilty about them and perhaps even regretting them, while the younger generation growing up later will have no such regrets. Reuters and Deutsche Welle and BBC
I wrote about this a lot when the Sri Lanka civil war was approaching a climax in 2009. The civil war had been going on over two decades, and as far as I know, every analyst and journalist in the world was predicting that the war would continue for many more years. However, in January 2008 something changed that made it clear from the point of view of Generational Dynamics that this war had transitioned into a generational crisis war that would soon reach a climax. As I wrote at that time (see "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels"), the army suddenly committed itself to defeating the LTTE (Tamil rebels) by the end of 2008.
"We can bring the war against the LTTE to a turning point once we are able to destroy the LTTE capabilities to operate in bunkers and forward defense lines."
What followed during the next year was very dramatic. The LTTE purposely embedded itself in the civilian population, so that the army could not attack them without killing civilians. The army ferociously attacked the LTTE, even when civilian lives were at stake. What happened was that the value of a civilian life had dropped to zero for both the army and the LTTE, and the only thing of value was victory.
Today, there are calls for the Sri Lankan army to be charged with war crimes, to which my response is that if Sri Lanka war is a war crime, then the firebombing of Dresden is also a war crime -- something that some German activists would agree with.
Regular readers of this daily Generational Dynamics World View article may wonder how I select topics and what things I look for. In my mind, I'm constantly trying to measure how much the value of an individual human life has become, and I tend to choose stories that indicate either that the value remains high or that the value is going lower. So, for example, yesterday's story on Europe's search and rescue program for migrants crossing from Libya to reach Italy is really a story about how important it still is to Europeans whether desperate refugees drown in the Mediterranean Sea.
Obviously the most recent examples where the value of a human life is zero is terror attacks by the likes of Boko Haram, ISIS, al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Even within that domain, there are differences. The Charlie Hebdo bombing in Paris was bad, but not as bad as the slaughter of 2000 people by Boko Haram that was occurring in the same time frame. ( "10-Jan-15 World View -- Up to 2000 Nigeria civilians killed in three-day Boko Haram massacre")
And it's not always Muslims who are the perpetrators. In "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht", I wrote about the wild, frenzied attack by Buddhists on Muslims that killed dozens and reduced an entire established community of 12,000 Muslims, including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and rubble. In that article, I compared the slaughter to 1938's Kristallnacht, which was a prelude to the Nazi Holocaust.
I've written several times about the Central African Republic and its generational crisis war currently in progress between the Muslim tribes and the Christian tribes. Both sides are committing atrocities, and this war will not end until there's been an explosive climax that all survivors will regret for the rest of their lives.
A reader recently wrote and asked me:
"John: Which country will be the first to use a nuclear weapon?"
That's an interesting question whose answer cannot be predicted. The countries with nuclear weapons are: US, Russia, UK, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea. Once the world war starts, any one of these countries might be the first, if the people in that country panic and decide that nothing is more important than victory. By the climax of the war, every one of those countries will have reached that conclusion, and every nuclear weapon will have been used. My estimate is that by the time the war ends, some 3 billion people will have been killed, leaving about 4 billion people to rebuild the world. At that time, the survivors will vow never to let anything like that ever happen again, and will take all the steps they can think of to keep that vow.
The discussion above of nuclear weapons is the kind of article that divides people. I've often been puzzled by other people's reactions to my web site. Some want to read it every day, others absolutely can't stand it, and can't stand me as a result. Ten years ago, friends I've known for years treated me as a harmless kook, but now, as the world worsens and one generational theory prediction after another has come true, those friends now shun me. This is similar to the mythical Cassandra, whom I've written about many times. I've also been puzzled why, after 12 years, there's no other web site in the world like mine.
A couple of weeks ago, I heard something that provided some insight. There was a BBC World Service show called "Why Factor," with the subject "Sad/Gloomy Music." It turns out that some people can listen to sad music and really enjoy it, while other people listen to sad music and absolutely can't stand it.
This observation seemed stunningly similar to the reactions to my World View articles and my web site.
The only "happy" music sample they played during the show was "The Beatles - I Want to Hold your Hand." They played samples of a number of "sad" music songs:
Billie Holiday - Gloomy Sunday
James Taylor - Riding on a Railroad
Joni Mitchell - River
Kylie Minogue - Can't Get You Out of My Head
Johann Sebastian Bach - Prelude in B minor, number 24
Mikhail Ivanovich Glinka - La Separation
Felix Mikhailovich Blumenfeld - Etude Sur Mer
Arvo Pärt - Spiegel Im Spiegel
Djivan Gasparyan - I Am Outcast By You
The Rankin Family - Chi Mi Na Morbheanna
Oliver Mtukudzi - Neria
Víctor Jara - Te Recuerdo Amanda
M.R Shajarian - Rain
Chris Isaak - Wicked Games
Samuel Barber - Adagio for Strings
According to the show, the last in this list is the most popular sad song among the show's listeners.
The show described the differences in chord structure between happy and sad music, but unfortunately I know nothing about music and didn't understand, which is too bad.
However, according to the BBC show, the differences in music are also generational: In the 1960s (the generational Awakening era), most popular music had the "happy" chord structure, while in the 2000s (the generational Crisis era), most popular music has the "sad" chord structure.
This opened my eyes to a whole new slant on the generational changes in music. In my 2008 article, "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X", I wrote about the generational changes in the lyrics of music since World War II, and I quoted some Gen-X lyrics, such as the song "Mr. Self Destruct" by Nine Inch Nails.
However, the concept that there are "happy chords" and "sad chords" and that they differ by generations goes beyond lyrics and was quite new to me.
One personal note: For my whole life, I've always loved Great Band Era music, 1935-45, and I still have a large record collection of Great Band Era songs. I'm going to guess that most Great Band Era music had the "sad" chord structure, and I'm going to guess that that's the reason I like it a lot more than most popular music, and I'm going to guess that my enjoyment of Great Band Era music is related to my being able to do this World View article every day. I also love original cast recordings from the 1930s-50s, and the reason may be the same.
Returning to the BBC program, there's a theory having to do with the hormone prolactin. Prolactin has to do with milk production in pregnant women, and has no known normal function in men. However, according to the show, there's some research that men and women who like sad music have an excess of prolactin, and those who hate sad music don't have enough prolactin. So maybe what makes me unique is that my blood is overflowing with prolactin. And also, maybe the people who read my World View articles have more prolactin than average, and those who can't stand them have less.
According to Prof David Huron of Ohio State University, quoted in the program:
"The research shows that for ordinary sadness, when we're in that state, we are our most deadly realistic in our self-appraisal. It has beneficial effects on judgment, on memory, all sorts of cognitive benefits that happen from being in a saddened state."
Since the World View articles are most "deadly realistic" analyses around, then this is the theory how I can write these articles every day: I have a good analytical ability, I have just the right education, and, most important, I have too much prolactin in my blood. If this theory is true then, Dear Reader, that's why I'm able to write these articles every day. And for similar reasons, that's why you read them every day.
Here's a comment from a reader:
"I have a sister who sees the world through rose colored glasses. I have ceased to attempt to give her insight, or guidance into where we are headed. She prefers, in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, to see the world as a "nice" place, where someone will always arrive in time to save her, and those she cares about, from evil."
My suggestion: Both of you should be tested for prolactin levels.
BBC World Service - Why Factor - Sad Music and Podcast (mp3)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Feb-15 World View -- Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Feb-2015)
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Confusion reigns over Ukraine ceasefire deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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At least 300 migrants have drowned in the Mediterranean sea after their boats sank earlier this week. They had departed from Libya on Saturday in four rubber dinghies that sank after four days at sea. Only nine people were rescued out of hundreds of migrants trying to reach Italy's Lampedusa Island.
Vincent Cochetel, UNHCR Europe bureau director, said:
"This is a tragedy on an enormous scale and a stark reminder that more lives could be lost if those seeking safety are left at the mercy of the sea. Saving lives should be our top priority. Europe cannot afford to do too little too late."
This "tragedy" is going to force the European Union, once again, to go through a painful review of its search and rescue policy in the Mediterranean, to prevent it from turning into what Pope Francis called "a vast cemetery."
Europe was forced into such a review after two tragic shipwrecks October 2013 in which more than 400 Eritrean, Somali and Syrian migrants drowned. ( "16-Oct-13 World View -- Sicily declares state of emergency as African migrants flood in") After that, Italy began spending 9 million euros per month on a program called "Mare Nostrum" (Latin for "Our Sea") to rescue drowning migrants trying to reach Italy.
Italy has been complaining since then that it shouldn't entirely be Italy's responsibility to rescue migrants in the Mediterranean, and that it should be a shared responsibility among all the EU nations. Naturally, other EU nations were perfectly happy letting Italy foot the entire search and rescue bill.
But after much haggling, the Mare Nostrum program expired in October, after which the search and rescue function was taken over by an EU operation called "Triton." However, Triton's budget is much smaller, just 2.9 million euros per months. And it restricts its operations to only within 30 miles off the Italian coast.
In the year from October 2013 to October 2014, Italy rescued about 100,000 refugees. Estimates are that 3,000 refugees have died in the Mediterranean 2014, critics are complaining that "multiples of the 3,000" will drown because Mare Nostrum was replaced by Triton. Adding to the concerns is that the number of refugees attempting the trip doubled in 2014 to 218,000 from the 2013 figure. The number is expected to increase further in 2015.
It's politically almost impossible for the EU or any democratic government to ignore and allow thousands of people to simply drown, no matter who's at fault. Pro-refugee activists claim that the EU has no choice but to increase its search and rescue budget again.
People smugglers charge desperate people from Syria and North Africa thousands of dollars each, stuff them all on a boat and send it out to sea, knowing that someone will rescue them (or not caring whether someone will rescue them). In a well-publicized case in December, people smugglers packed almost 1,000 people into a boat, after typically collecting thousands of dollars from each migrant, and sent the ship out into the open sea with no crew, running on autopilot. ( "2-Jan-15 World View -- European migrant crisis escalates with crewless cargo ships") The Italian navy was able to board the ship and take control of it.
Skeptics point out that having a robust search and rescue operation only encourages migrants to risk the trip. They argue that if there had been no search and rescue effort, then migrants would not attempt to reach Europe. Others point out that desperate people in Syria and Eritrea will take the risk no matter what Triton's budget is. Irish Independent and UNHCR and Guardian (London, 31-Oct-2014)
Ukraine ceasefire negotiations continued through the night in Minsk, the capital city of Belarus. The negotiators were Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's leader Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's President François Hollande.
On Thursday morning, Putin came out and announced a ceasefire deal. According to the deal:
It's hard to find anything meaningful in this. Do we believe that the anti-government Russians in east Ukraine are going to stop shooting? Do we believe that Russia is going to stop sending soldiers and weapons into east Ukraine? Do we believe that Putin will keep any commitment at all, if he doesn't feel like it? A lot of people would answer "no" to all of these.
If the West lifts the sanctions on Monday, then Putin will have won a total victory, and completely humiliated the West. More likely, the sanctions will be kept in place, and nothing will have changed. We may have some answers by mid-week. AP and Globe and Mail (Toronto) and Russia Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Feb-15 World View -- Europe faces 'enormous tragedy' over Europe's Mediterranean rescue program thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Feb-2015)
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Greece's negotiations with eurozone fail to reach deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As of this writing on Wednesday evening ET, the negotiations to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine have failed to reach agreement. However, negotiations will continue through the night.
Violence has been increasing in eastern Ukraine, as Russia has poured heavy weapons and possibly thousands of soldiers from Russia to support the anti-government Russians in east Ukraine.
The meeting is taking place in Minsk, the capital city of Belarus. The participants are Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's leader Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's President François Hollande. Earlier in the day, a tense Vladimir Putin broke a pencil he was holding. At a scheduled "family photo" during a break in the meeting, all four faces were extremely grim.
Ukraine's government would like Russia to stop supplying weapons and soldiers to the insurgents. Russia would like Europe to end the sanctions. Right now, it looks like neither side will get what they want. BBC and Twitter
Wednesday's meeting of the Eurogroup meeting of eurozone financial ministers ended in failure, with no agreement. Under its new government, Greece is demanding a "bridge loan" that will permit it to pay its bills and increase government spending over the next six months. Several eurozone countries, led by Germany oppose this proposal. Since no joint statement was issued on Wednesday, it's thought that the two sides are very far apart. There will be another Eurogroup meeting on Monday. Kathimerini
Violence in Sanaa, the capital city in Yemen, has been increasing after the al-Houthi ethnic group completed its coup last week, and took complete control of Yemen's government. Anti-Houthi demonstrations have been growing, and Houthi militias have been using force to disperse crowds. The al-Houthis are an Iran-backed Shia militia, and their slogan is: "God is the Greatest. Death to America. Death to Israel. Damn the Jew and Victory to Islam."
Fearing an assault, the U.S. on Tuesday closed its embassy in Sanaa and evacuated all personnel. As soon as U.S. officials left the capital, the Houthis seized more than 20 vehicles from the evacuated embassy.
Yemen is the home of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which the U.S. has been fighting with the cooperation of the preceding government. It's not clear whether the new al-Houthi government will agree to continued attacks on AQAP, particularly the drone strikes, but the al-Houthis themselves also would like to see AQAP defeated.
Yemen becomes the third Arab country to lose its American embassy since December 2010, when the "Arab spring" began, creating turmoil in one country after another throughout the Mideast. The Syrian war forced the closure of the US embassy in Damascus in February 2012, and the dissolution of Libya's government forced the closure of the embassy in Tripoli in July 2014.
On January 8, 1991, looters in the army of the government of Somalia fired rocket grenades in the capital city Mogadishu, leading to the famous "Blackhawk down" incident. The U.S. embassy was closed, and all diplomats and employees were evacuated. In July of last year, President Obama appointed Omar Abdirashid Ali Shamarke to be the first U.S. ambassador to Somalia since 1991. However, Sharmarke will work out of the American embassy in Nairobi, Kenya. AP and U.S. State Dept. and ABC News (14-Jul-2014) and LA Times (8-Jan-1991)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Feb-15 World View -- US closes Yemen embassy, following Somalia, Syria and Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Feb-2015)
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Citigroup: Oil could plunge to $20 per barrel
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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After falling during the last year from over $100 per barrel down to below $45 per barrel, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil has record to around $52 per barrel. However, Citigroup analysts say that the current price is unsustainable, and that we'll soon see oil fall well below $40 per barrel, and perhaps as low as in the $20's range for a while, possibly triggering the collapse of OPEC.
The reasons for the continuing plunge in oil prices are:
The result is that oil storage is "heading toward the tank-tops," meaning that storage space is running out, and the oversupply will push prices down substantially. Bloomberg
On February 24, 1990, after a drastic fall in oil prices, Iran accused Saudi Arabia of being party to a Western plot against Iran. At that time, Iran and Iraq were still at a state of war, and Iran threatened to confiscate oil shipments to Iraq that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran demanded that the Saudis conform to the demands of the oil cartel OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).
Two weeks ago, the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, renewed that threat, by repeating part of it in a tweet, saying that "crashing oil prices ... is a blow against Islamic and independent nations," and promising to "answer a blow with a blow."
According to a state-sponsored editorial:
"Iran, as the center of Islamic awakening, shows tremendous patience in [its] foreign policy... But the anger of this patient element has irreversible consequences for the Aal Saud family and their allies in the region, from Aal Nahyan [the UAE royal family] to Aal Khalifa [the Bahraini royal family]. Beware of the patient ones. Saudi Arabia must not depend on sunny days – on the contrary, it must prepare for a stormy day... The nations of the region will not forget the Arab leaders' betrayal by means of reducing oil prices, and revenge will be a minimal punishment for this strategic mistake by Saudi Arabia.Today, all the arteries of oil transport – from Bab-el-Mandeb strait to the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz – are under Iranian control, by means of Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain, and within range of Iranian missiles. If the need arises, the nations of the region will be informed of Saudi Arabia's and its allies' despicable collaboration with the Zionist regime..."
Iran has recently been bragging that they now have control of the capital cities in four other countries -- Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and most recently Yemen. The Supreme Leader now wants to leverage that control by threatening oil transport throughout the region, in order to raise oil prices.
With the death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah II, and his replacement by King Salman, the Saudis have been indecisive in reacting to the takeover of Yemen by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis. Saudi Arabia has contributed some $4 billion in aid to Yemen since 2011. That aid was largely suspended in December after Houthis took control. Now the Saudis have to decide whether to go further and intervene militarily, which would raise the conflict with Iran to an even higher level.
Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia are extremely vitriolic. When the news of King Abdullah's death broke, an Iranian state-sponsored news agency published a cartoon welcoming him to hell:
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After Abdullah's death, a top Iranian advisor called on the new King Salman to change policies: "As for King Salman's desire for an Israeli-Palestinian peace – this is impossible, because the Zionists need to leave the occupied lands..." Memri and Al-Jazeera
I received a number of reader responses to yesterday's article on Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism, and the point that Islam is at war with itself, not with the West. There are no Muslim countries or Muslim armies attacking the West, but there are a number of Muslim armies and militias attacking and killing thousands of other Muslims, including Muslim women and children.
Most of the questions were of the following sort: "Why can't Muslims be at war with other Muslims AND with the West?"
The answer really is "No".
It's certainly true that Osama bin Laden was at war with the West, as were a number of Saudi jihadists. Other jihadists groups would like to be at war with the West, but they're too bogged down killing other Muslims to attack the West. That's the point. For example, I'm sure the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) would like to wage war against the West, but they'll never get the opportunity because they'll never defeat all the Muslim armies around them, without a world war. No Muslim army could possibly have the resources to fight other Muslim armies and the West at the same time.
As I've been saying for years, we're headed for a world war where the Saudis will be our enemy, aligned with Pakistan and China, and Iran will be our ally, aligned with Russia and India. It will never be the case that "Islam is at war with the West," but it will be like World Wars I and II, where we were at war with some Muslim armies and allied with other Muslim armies, and that will be bad enough.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Feb-15 World View -- Iran/Saudi relations worsen over Yemen and falling oil prices thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Feb-2015)
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Nigeria and Boko Haram declare war after election postponement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Islam is not at war with the West. Islam is at war with itself, as I've written several times. There is a massive, historic war of Muslims versus Muslims that is growing every week. Things like the Charlie Hebdo attack are only for recruiting and fund raising. Countries include: Yemen, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Mali, Nigeria-Niger-Cameroon-Chad, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh. ISIS armies are not attacking the West; they're slaughtering tens of thousands of Muslims. It's the most important development going on today.
On Friday, I watched Bill O'Reilly's show on the Fox News Channel, where the subject under discussion was Islam's war on the West, and that Islamic extremism is an existential threat to America. O'Reilly said that it was, and he promised that he "had the facts." I was quite curious to know what "facts" he had, so I stayed tuned.
The "facts" are summarized in the graphic shown above, based on a Pew Research poll. He said that this graphic showed that "a significant minority of Muslims do support violent terrorism." He read off the stats, and ended with: "and in Bangladesh a whopping 47% of Muslims support suicide bombing against CIVILIANs."
Are you kidding me? Does O'Reilly or anyone else believe that Bangladeshis care about a suicide bombing in the West, or that they'd even pay attention if one occurred? These people struggle every day just to feed their kids, and couldn't care less what happens in the West.
Now, I doubt that anyone on O'Reilly's staff knows even a single fact about Bangladesh, including how to find it on a map, and that would explain their silly conclusion. To illustrate, here's a two-day-old news story:
"Nine killed in Bangladesh fire bomb attacks on bus, truckDHAKA Sat Feb 7, 2015 1:36am EST
(Reuters) - At least nine people, including two children, were burned alive in Bangladesh when opposition activists hurled petrol bombs at a packed bus and a truck in the latest spasm of worsening political violence, police said on Saturday. ...
At least 70 people have been killed and hundreds injured in violence over the past month, including the latest deaths in arson attacks overnight."
This is day to day life in Dhaka. In 2009, I wrote a lengthy article about violence in Bangladesh, that began:
"76 Bangladesh army officers were mutilated and killed last week by men under their command. The massacre, which occurred over a 33 hour period on February 25-26, has shocked the country for its brutality. Bodies of officers and their wives were mutilated and piled into mass graves. Security forces have arrested hundreds of guards, including many who fled to towns and cities across the country."
In 1971, Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) fought an extremely bloody and genocidal civil war between two Muslim ethnic groups -- the Urdu-speaking Biharis from the upper castes of Indian society, versus the indigenous Bengali-speaking Bengalis, from the "untouchable" castes of India.
Although the war ended, the hatred continues between these two ethnic groups, and today there are still calls for violence by one side against the other. That ALWAYS happens after a civil war.
In fact, it sometimes happens in countries where there's been no civil war. I remember America in the 1960s, I remember the "long hot summers" of violent riots, and I remember the bombings and calls for violence from groups like the Weather Underground. During "the Troubles" in Ireland, both Catholics and Protestants were calling for violence. Today in Mexico, you have drug cartels slaughtering civilians and calling for violence, and we needn't be reminded that these people are Christians, not Muslims.
The point is that if you take a bunch of poll results, as O'Reilly did, and claim to have the "facts" about something, then you're talking nonsense. When a person's wife and children are slaughtered by someone else, that person will want revenge. That's a human emotion, whether the person is a Muslim, a Buddhist, a Hindu, a Jew or a Christian.
I'll discuss one more item on O'Reilly's list: "Muslims in Palestinian territories -- 46%." Here we have to be reminded about some facts that a lot of people don't want to hear. The Gaza Palestinians believe themselves to be Israeli's prisoners, and in last summer's Gaza war, thousands of Palestinian women and children were killed by Israeli airstrikes. These airstrikes may have been completely justified by the tunnels and weapons stores, but that doesn't matter to the people whose family members were killed, and who now seek revenge. But it doesn't mean that Islam is at war with the West. It means that the Palestinians are at war with the Israelis, and there's little doubt that that's true, and that explains the Pew poll statistic.
Islam is NOT at war with the West. ISIS armies are fighting Muslims, not Westerners. In country after country, Muslims are at war, almost always with other Muslims. That's a completely different thing, and it's extremely dangerous because sooner or later we'll be pulled into it, whether we like it or not. We should try to understand that, instead of referencing irrelevant poll statistics. Reuters and Pew Report (PDF)
Nigeria's government has caused an international uproar by Saturday's announcement to postpone the February 14 presidential elections for six weeks, until March 28. The reason given was threats by Boko Haram to disrupt the election with terror attacks. However, the Muslim opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, is accusing the government of using the Boko Haram threat as an excuse to gain time in order to keep the Christian president, Goodluck Jonathan, in office for another term.
Nigeria had an extremely bloody civil war between 1967 and 1970, that pitted Christians versus Muslims and ethnic groups against each other. In order to avoid further violence, officials in 1979 adopted an informal rule that the office of president would alternate between a Christian and a Muslim, with two 4-year terms each. This rule was followed until 2010, when Jonathan took over as head of state after the death of the Muslim president Umaru Yar'Adua, who was part way through his first term. Jonathan then won the next election in 2011, and so a Christian has been president almost continually since 1999.
So the Muslim opposition now suspects that the purpose of the election postponement is to give Jonathan a way to gain time to win the election, possibly through fraudulent means.
Indeed, many people are wondering what good the six-week extension will be at all. Nigeria's army has totally failed to bring Boko Haram under control for six years, so what good will another six weeks do?
The army responds that things have changed recently, and that they're now getting plenty of international help from Cameroon, Niger, Benin and Chad, and that the combined effort of 7,000 troops could bring violence "to a level that will allow for a free and fair election."
However, Boko Haram's leader, Abubakar Shekau, issued a video on Monday, effectively declaring war on the international coalition.
"Your alliance will not achieve anything. Amass all your weapons and face us. We welcome you. ... You send 7,000 troops? Why don't you send 70 million? This is small. Only 7,000? By Allah, it is small. We can seize them one-by-one. We can seize them one-by-one."
The fear is that the next six weeks will see increased violence in Nigeria's northeast, forcing another election delay and, in the worst scenario, bringing about a new military coup. BBC and Deutsche Welle and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Feb-15 World View -- Bill O'Reilly's statistics on Islamic terrorism are nonsense thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Feb-2015)
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Greece's Alexis Tsipras approaches Wednesday confrontation with Europe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Authorities are concerned about widespread riots and demonstrations after 30 people died and dozens were injured in clashes with police at a football (soccer) game in Cairo on Sunday, when hundreds of football fans tried to enter the stadium without buying tickets. Police fired teargas and birdshot to disperse the crowd. Most of the deaths were due to suffocation, while other were killed in a stampede after the police fired teargas.
Young football fans in Cairo, known as Ultras, have become highly politicized. Football fan clubs joined together in Tahrir Square in 2011 to bring about the ouster of long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak. When the army took over, the Ultras demonstrated against the army. Then they demonstrated against the Muslim Brotherhood, during the days of president Mohamed Morsi. Now the fear is of major demonstrations and riots against the former general and current president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi.
Sunday's incident is certainly going to renew the widespread criticism of the police in an incident that occurred on February 2, 2012, at a football match in Port Said, when fans of two opposing football clubs were killed in clashes with each other.
The attackers were mostly fans of the home team, the al-Masry football club, while the victims were Cairo Ultras, fans of the visiting team, Cairo's Al-Ahly football club, a group that had actively taken part in the Tahrir Square protests during 2011, and the suspicion is widespread that police were responsible for the violence, in order to get revenge against the Ultras. There were plenty of riot police present at the game, but video shows that they allowed the violence to continue without interference, and they may even have aided the violence by blocking the escape route of the victims.
However, fans were furious a year later when an Egyptian court sentenced 21 football fans to death for participating in the riot, while the police were completely exonerated. This particularly infuriated the ultras, who believed that the police were responsible. ( "27-Jan-13 World View -- Egypt in crisis after two days of violent clashes")
After the 2012 incident, Egyptian football matches were closed to spectators, a ban which was only just recently lifted. Egypt's cabinet has now decided to suspend all football game indefinitely.
There are hundreds of thousands of politically active Ultras, and it's now thought that it's almost certain that they'll be returning to Tahrir Square for anti-government and anti-police demonstrations. How far these demonstrations will probably depends mostly on how skillfully and transparently they handle the investigation of Sunday's incident. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera
Greece's new radical left-wing prime minister Alexis Tsipras appears to be approaching a head-on clash with the Eurogroup, the eurozone finance ministers, when they all meet on Wednesday.
On Sunday, Tsipras gave his maiden speech to Greece's parliament. He repeated his plan to increase government spending, and he repeated his demand that Europe continue to fund Greece's increased spending by billions of dollars. In particular, he's asking Europe to provide a "bridge loan" to support the increased spending through June, to give Greece and the Europeans time to negotiate revised bailout terms that will allow the increased spending to continue into the future.
He's also demanding World War II reparations from Germany for the damages brought by the Nazis. He called it, "A moral obligation to our people, to history, to all Europeans who fought and gave their blood against Nazism." Germany has already firmly refused to consider reparations.
In his speech, Tsipras announced the following new and revived spending programs:
Offsetting these spending increases, Tsipras promised to reduce corruption and tax evasion, and also to sell off half of all government limousines. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Feb-15 World View -- 30 dead in Cairo Egypt as soccer fans clash with police thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Feb-2015)
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Greek Tragedy and Generational Dynamics
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Iannis Xenakis's 1977 work "Kottos" for cello will be performed on Thursday at Harvard University. Like other works by Iannis, it's not exactly melodic. The composer himself describes it as follows: "In general: the sounds, except for the harmonics, should not be beautiful or nice in the usual sense, but rough, harsh and full of noise." (Iannis Xenakis (1922-2001) is my first cousin - father's brother's son.)
It's roughness comes because it echoes the conflict between Communists and Nazis in Greece during World War II. In the 1940s, Iannis was a member of ELAS, the Communist-led Greek resistance, helping to drive the Nazis from Greece. The subsequent British occupation and the conservative Greek monarchy turned against ELAS; Iannis, having survived a British shell that destroyed his eye and shattered his face, fled. The Greek government sentenced him to death in absentia. He settled in Paris, working as an architect and, then, a composer.
In Greek mythology, Kottos was giant with a hundred arms and 50 heads. Kottos fought in the massive war between Zeus and the Titans. Like Iannis, Kottos was imprisoned and exiled. Iannis' cello composition echoes both of those stories.
If we look at the trends in Greece over the past five years or so, we can see the same trend lines emerging as in World War II. The radical far left party Syriza is governing Greece today, aligning with Russia and mocking the Germans. At the same time, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party has been gaining strength in the last two years, despite the fact that several of its leaders are in jail for corruption and murder. Greece's relationship with its European lenders, especially Germany, is currently in crisis, and with a new bond payment due at the end of February, the crisis may be about the worsen substantially.
As I've been writing for years since the Greek fiscal crisis began, there is no solution. By that I don't mean that we haven't been clever enough to find a solution. I mean that, as with many of today's world problems, no solution exists. Greece, Germany and Europe are headed for an inevitable tragedy which they've inflicted on themselves, and even though we can see it coming, we can't stop it. Extrapolating these trends, we can see that the war between Zeus and the Titans will be fought once more. Boston Globe and Xenakis Project of the Americas
I've found that few non-Greeks really understand what tragedy is about. As a Greek I know that a sense of tragedy is in my bones. Tragedy as an art form was invented in ancient Greece, and three of four great tragic artists of all time were Aeschylus, Sophocles and Euripides of ancient Greece, with the fourth being Shakespeare.
What tragedy does is to bring order out of seeming random events. Many people misunderstand the deepest meanings of tragedy. If a child is killed in a random traffic accident, then it's a terrible event but it's not a tragedy in the classical sense, because of that randomness.
The essence of classical tragedy is that the tragic event is not random. The tragic event is inevitable: it MUST occur, and the reason it must occur is because of the nature, the personality, the character of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot be prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces bringing about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.
Like the child killed in a random traffic accident, the protagonists of a true tragedy have a great future before them, and in the Greek view, perhaps even a heroic future. But the heroic future turns into disaster because the players in the true tragedy move step by step towards that disaster; and all of us on the outside can see it coming, because these particular players are uniquely capable of inflicting this disaster on one another.
The war between Zeus and the Titans could not be prevented. The war between the Nazis and the Communists in Greece in WW II could be foreseen, but could not be prevented. Today, the growing conflict between Greece and Germany once again is completely foreseeable, but can't be prevented, because no solution exists. In each case, it's the nature, the character of the participants that leads them inexorably to inflict a horrible tragic disaster on each other.
It would not be wrong to describe the Generational Dynamics web site as displaying the greatest tragic play in human history. The countries of the world -- the US, China, Greece, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India, Russia, etc. -- are all moving towards a tragic disaster that only they are uniquely capable of inflicting on one another. The script for this play is being written in the daily World View articles. Nothing can be done to prevent this tragic disaster, but through Generational Dynamics we have a way of standing on the outside, and watching it arrive, step by step by step.
Nigeria's electoral commission has postponed the February 14 presidential elections by six weeks, in view of threats of further terrorist attacks by Boko Haram. The US State Dept. says that Boko Haram has become extremely wealthy and has large storehouses of weapons, and it's hard to see how the security situation will improve in six weeks. It's feared that Nigeria is on a path that will inevitably cause it to join other countries, including Somalia, Libya, Central African Republic, and Yemen, that are disintegrating before our eyes. Nigeria Tribune and BBC
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of Gulf Arab nations has condemned the Houthi takeover of Yemen as "a grave and unacceptable escalation [that] endangers the security, stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Yemen." The GCC said its own security was linked to that of Yemen and vowed to take "all the necessary measures to defend their interests." Arab News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Feb-15 World View -- Iannis Xenakis's work 'Kottos' echoes Greece's Nazi vs Communist struggle thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Feb-2015)
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Houthis complete takeover coup in Yemen
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Two former presidents of the Central African Republic (CAR) signed a "peace agreement" in a meeting in Nairobi, Kenya, several days ago. One was Francois Bozizé, the Christian former president, who was ousted in a coup in March 2013 by the other participant, Michel Djotodia, the Muslim former president, who served until January 2014. The ceremony was kind of laughable, since the agreement was meaningless from the moment it was signed.
After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian constituencies of the deposed Francois Bozizé. In December 2013, French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka militias, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against the Selekas.
Throughout 2014, various African Union and United Nations committees and conferences have been looking for ways to bring the violence to an end. On Thursday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon asked the Security Council to approve 1,030 more peacekeepers to bring the total to nearly 13,000. Just to put that number in perspective, the NY City police department has over 34,000 uniformed officers for just one city, while CAR is an enormous country the size of France. However, NY City has 8 million people, while CAR has 5 million.
However, considering the situation in CAR, 13,000 peacekeepers is far too few. According to the UN, 438,000 people in are displaced within CAR, more than 423,000 people have fled to Cameroon, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and 2.5 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
Michel Djotodia was interviewed by the BBC on Thursday and asked if he would be able to return to Bangui, the capital city, and take part in elections planned for later this year (my transcription of simultaneous translation):
"The conditions are not right. I can't.The provisional government is having trouble protecting even the palace in Bangui. So what would I do? I can't return. There must be some security. That's why I'm here - to try and bring back peace and security to the country.
But the people don't want it. First of all, there aren't even any institutions in CAR. The state as such no longer exists. The army has disappeared. The police doesn't exist. Justice is on its knees. All these state institutions have practically vanished.
One, how can anyone claim that we're ready for elections? Two, the majority of Central Africans are outside the country. How can we organize elections? You'd have to take the ballot boxes on your head to Chad, Cameroon, and France, so that people could vote. Do you find that normal? It would make a mockery of CAR's people."
The United Nations and Djotodia together describe a disintegrated country in total chaos. Most of the peacekeeping forces are concentrated around the capital city Bangui, and even there are not keeping much peace. The Muslim Selekas are mostly in control of the east, while the Christian anti-balaka militias are mostly in the west.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is in a generational crisis war, and it won't end until it's fully run its course, and reaches a climax.
CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis war is inevitable.
The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the French colonialists, but it also had its share of the same kind of tribal violence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends, the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that were perpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their lives to making sure that nothing like that happens to their children or grandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors have passed away, so that there's no one left with a personal memory of the last crisis war, then there's nothing to stop a new crisis war from starting, and that's what's happening now.
Many people are surprised at this narrative, mainly because they've never heard of the Kongo-Wara Rebellion. But just as young Americans today have heard of World War II, you can be sure that young people in CAR today, both Muslims and Christians, have heard of the Kongo-Wara Rebellion. And these young people know nothing of the horrors of that war. What the Muslims know is that their great-grandfathers were war heroes because they killed thousands of French and Christians, while the Christians have heard that their great-grandfathers were even bigger heroes, because they slaughtered even more Muslims.
So, the French Foreign Legion and the United Nations and African Union peacekeepers will try desperately to put a lid on the current war, but nothing will stop it now. All Africa and Bloomberg and United Nations and Reuters
Nigeria's terrorist group Boko Haram invaded Niger on Friday, attacking two towns in a part of Niger that is already home to tens of thousands of refugees who have fled Boko Haram attacks back in Nigeria. On Wednesday and Thursday, Boko Haram attack a town in Cameroon, leaving nearly 100 dead and 500 wounded.
The Boko Haram insurgency is rapidly becoming an international war, with Cameroon, Niger, Chad and Benin all having pledged to send troops to fight Boko Haram. AP
After several days of large anti-Houthi public demonstrations, often violently disrupted by Houthi officials, the minority Houthis have completed their coup and taken complete control of Yemen's government in Sanaa, replacing the elected parliament with a military council completely controlled by the Houthis.
The Shia Houthis are thought to be supported by Iran. They now have control of northern Yemen, but Sunni tribes in central and southern Yemen are not expected to accede to their control. These include the moderate Islamist Islah party, backed by Saudi Arabia, Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and the secessionist groups in Yemen's Southern Movement.
The main concern now is that tensions among these groups will spiral into a civil war, joining the growing war engulfing the Mideast that I've been talking about for weeks. Probably the best scenario that can be hoped for is that Yemen will quietly become a disintegrated state, joining Libya, Syria and Iraq, joining Somalia and Central African Republic in Africa, with Nigeria on the horizon.
The previous government had depended on aid from Saudi Arabia to pay salaries. That aid is being cut off, and so the next crisis may be unable to pay salaries in one of the poorest countries in the world. Yemen Online and VOA and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Feb-15 World View -- Central African Republic 'peace deal' collapses instantly as slaughter continues thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Feb-2015)
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80 million people exposed by massive Anthem Inc. data breach
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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For months I've been describing the Muslim versus Muslim war that has been growing throughout the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia. This week, the Mideast war has widened as Jordan begins to take revenge against the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL).
Two days after a video emerged showing Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kaseasbeh being burned alive, Jordan has apparently declared all-out war on ISIS. Jordan began with airstrikes on Thursday, targeting ISIS training centers and arms and ammunition depots, in an air mission named "Muath the Martyr."
The military, in statement directed at ISIS read on state TV, said, "This is the beginning and you will get to know the Jordanians." Other messages called ISIS the "enemies of Islam."
Jordan's foreign minister Nasser Judeh said: "We said we are going to take this all the way, we are going to go after them wherever they are and we're doing that." This means that Jordan will be conducting air strikes in Iraq, as well as in Syria as before. The United States military is cooperating by speeding up arms deliveries and by moving search and rescue capabilities from Kuwait to Iraq.
The mood in Jordan has changed substantially. Last week, the population was split between wanting to stay in the American-led coalition and those wanting to withdraw completely. This week, the public seems to be united in favor of revenge. The National (UAE) and CNN and AP
The massive Anthem Inc. data breach affects 80 million current and former customers of the following health plans: Anthem Blue Cross, Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Georgia, Empire Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Amerigroup, Caremore, Unicare, Healthlink, and DeCare.
The following information was apparently obtained: names, dates of birth, member ID/ social security numbers, addresses, phone numbers, email addresses and employment information. Medical information was not obtained.
Unfortunately, there is no time limit on this exposure. Once hackers have your social security number and other information, they can use it for identity theft at any time in the future.
If you are potentially affected by the breach, you should go to the Anthem Inc. data breach FAQ and take steps to protect yourself. Anthem is offering its customers a free identity theft protection service.
Anthem says that they have a "state of the art security system," but that seems to be a joke right about now. One problem is that social security numbers, birth dates and other information were stored in the data base in clear text. If that information had been stored in encrypted form, then it would be useless to hackers. But, as an IT professional and a Senior Software Engineer, I know from my personal experience and the experience of friends that trying to convince management to encrypt this data is liable to get you admonished or fired. Something like that probably happened at Anthem, and now 80 million people will have to pay the price. As in other industries, stupidity has no limits in the computer industry. USA Today and Wired and Anthem Inc.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Feb-15 World View -- Mideast war widens as Jordan vows to destroy ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Feb-2015)
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The European Central Bank turns the screws on Greece's banks
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Seven terrorists riding motorcycles hurled hand grenades at a school in the port city of Karachi in Pakistan. The school was damaged, but there were no casualties. Before leaving, the terrorists left a threat letter (shown above) saying that this attack was only a beginning, and that "the flames of war WILL intensify and engulf your homes!"
The attack was emblematic of the daily violence that occurs in Karachi, making it possibly the most dangerous megacity in the world. The massive terror attack on a Shia mosque that I reported on a couple of days ago took place in a Karachi suburb. There were at least 1,135 fatalities in 2014 from terror attacks in Karachi. Although many of them could be classified as ordinary gang warfare, many of the attacks are also sectarian in nature. Pakistan's government has repeatedly promised to fight terrorism, but despite terrorist activity is increasing throughout Pakistan, authorities have done little.
Violence has been increasing in Karachi for decades, and is now approaching a crisis level that has the potential to transform into a sectarian war that engulfs first the region, then the entire country. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)
In the aftermath of the video by the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) depicting the barbaric murder of Jordan's pilot Muath al-Kaseasbeh, Jordan's King Abdullah II has promised a "relentless" war:
"We are waging this war to protect our faith, our values and human principles and our war for their sake will be relentless and will hit them in their own ground."
Two jihadists in Jordan's jails, previously convicted and sentenced to death, were executed by hanging on Wednesday morning. However, the father of the murdered pilot, who belongs to a powerful tribe in Jordan that is close to the king, said that wasn't enough:
"I demand none of them amongst us be kept alive. I demand the revenge be greater than executing prisoners. I demand the ISIL organization be annihilated.This murderous organization, made up of militants from all the world countries, is acting in barbaric ways, violating all the international laws, codes of ethics, and prisoners' conventions. That is why I strongly demand the government to swiftly take revenge for the blood of Moaz and the dignity of our country."
Public opinion in Jordan, which last week seemed to favor withdrawing Jordan from the anti-ISIS coalition, now appears to have undergone a complete reversal. Al Jazeera and Reuters
Greece's new finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, part of the Syriza government of radical left-wing prime minister Alexis Tsipras, is telling anyone who will listen that Greece will not be meeting its austerity commitments that it made in return for receiving 240 billion euros of bailout money paid so far, and that it will inaugurate new spending programs.
With Greece on a collision course with Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has taken the first step to isolate Greece financially. As part of the previous bailout negotiations, the ECB had implemented a waiver that would allow Greek banks to borrow money from the ECB using Greek bonds as collateral, despite the fact that Greek bonds are "junk bonds" with little investment value. On Wednesday, the ECB announced that it was lifting that waiver, and so Greek's banks may no longer use Greek bonds as collateral.
Greek banks are already in trouble. During December alone, 4.6 billion euros in deposits were withdrawn from Greek banks and deposited in banks in other countries. A full-scale bank run is feared.
There is another way that Greece can borrow from the ECB, the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program. The ELA is considerably more expensive, but it doesn't require collateral. Kathimerini and ECB Press Release
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Feb-15 World View -- Terrorists attack school, part of growing violence in Karachi Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Feb-2015)
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Analysts are puzzled by ISIS's burning alive of Jordan's pilot
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Tuesday, the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL) released a 22:34 minute video that portrays Jordan's pilot Muath al-Kaseasbeh being locked in a cage and burned alive. Jordan is part of the coalition conducting air strikes on ISIS, and al-Kaseasbeh was captured by ISIS several weeks ago.
A number of analysts on Tuesday expressed surprise that ISIS committed this atrocity. Al-Kaseasbeh was a very high-value hostage, a member of a leading tribe in Jordan. His value was second only to the value of a captured American pilot, if one should occur. ISIS could have leveraged al-Kaseasbeh for many things, including millions of dollars in ransom money and the release of scores of terrorists in Jordan's jails, in exchange for his release. Also, Jordan's involvement in the American coalition against ISIS was becoming increasingly unpopular in Jordan, and ISIS might have even been able to force Jordan to withdraw from the coalition. In fact, Jordan stopped taking part in the anti-ISIS airstrikes since the pilot was captured.
There are reports of a split within ISIS between factions that wanted to kill the pilot and the factions that wanted to use him for negotiating leverage. However, analysts are saying that it appears that the pilot was actually killed some time ago, possibly on January 3, so negotiating was never a serious option. Obviously, the winners in ISIS were the factions that wanted not only to kill him, but to kill him in as barbaric a way as possible. What was the motivation?
The analysts I heard point out that every time ISIS posts a video of this sort, the number of recruits joining ISIS surges. Thousands of young men and women from around the world have been traveling to Syria to join the ISIS bloodbath, and this video will bring more. These would-be jihadists are mostly used as cannon fodder in ISIS's war against other Muslims in Syria and Iraq.
The ISIS strategy has to be seen in the context of the reality that ISIS is facing. As I've been describing for weeks, there is a growing Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa, and South Asia, and ISIS is one of the armies fighting in that war. ISIS's armies are not fighting Europeans or Israelis; they're fighting and killing Muslims. For ISIS to succeed, it needs an even bigger army. Negotiating with Jordan for the release of the pilot would have done nothing to increase the size of the ISIS army. Burning him alive in a barbaric fashion as a PR stunt will have that result. MEMRI
Analysts on Tuesday were speculating whether the barbaric killing of Jordan's pilot would cause Jordan's public to demand that the government get revenge, or demand that the government withdraw from the anti-ISIS coalition. As of this writing on Tuesday evening ET, it seems clear that Jordan is committed to revenge.
Actions that Jordan might take include the following:
During the America's war with Vietnam in the 1960s-70s, whenever the North Vietnamese committed some atrocity, such as burning down a village and slaughtering all the women and children, or committing atrocities against American soldiers, these acts would fuel the American anti-war movement, and bring cheers from the likes of John Kerry and Jane Fonda. America was then in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the end of World War II, when nationalism is typically at a low point. But Jordan today is in a generational Crisis era, and we've reported in the past how nationalism is increasing in countries around the world, including the U.S., Europe and China. Anti-war movements gain little traction at such times, so it's not surprising that those wanting revenge in Jordan are having their way today. VOA and Time
ISIS was embroiled in another hostage drama in recent days, having abducted Japanese journalist Kenji Goto and his friend Haruna Yukawa. ISIS demanded $200 million in ransom for the freedom of the two hostages, even though it was clear that no sum that large would ever be paid. In retrospect, it appears that ISIS had no intention of freeing the two Japanese than it had to free Jordan's pilot, under any circumstances.
So when ISIS released videos in the last few days showing the beheadings of the two hostages, prime minister Shinzo Abe reacted with outrage, promising "to make the terrorists pay the price." He added:
"No country is completely safe from terrorism. How do we cut the influence of ISIS, and put a stop to extremism? Japan must play its part in achieving this."
Abe's statement seems straightforward enough, but in fact it appears to mark a watershed in Japan's military policy. After being defeated in World War II, Japan adopted a constitution that permitted the military to be used only for self-defense. The U.S. has been pressuring Japan for decades to increase its military budget, to take on a greater share of responsibility for its own defense, and to participate more in multilateral, global security operations by committing self-defense forces.
Japan has resisted for decades. It was thought that only a major military confrontation with China or North Korea would cause Japan to reverse its policy. But now, ISIS seems to have accomplished something that the US couldn't accomplish. The beheadings of the two hostages have infuriated the Japanese people and increased nationalism to the extent that they may now support greater military commitments abroad.
Over the weekend, a Japanese diplomat said:
"This is 9/11 for Japan. It is time for Japan to stop daydreaming that its good will and noble intentions would be enough to shield it from the dangerous world out there. Americans have faced this harsh reality; the French have faced it, and now we are, too."
This reference to 9/11 is interesting because 9/11 was also cited frequently in past weeks in reference to the Charlie Hebdo terror attacks in Paris. 9/11 has become a symbol in one country after another to describe an event that turns the country around to cause a surge in nationalism and willingness to use the military. (In generational theory, these are called "regeneracy events," because they regenerate civic unity for the first time since end of the preceding crisis war.) Any country is susceptible to such popular reversals during a generational Crisis era.
What was particularly infuriating to the Japanese people was that ISIS gave as a reason for beheading Goto that Japan was a member of the American-led coalition against ISIS. The reason that this is infuriating is that Japan was NOT a member of the coalition, and could not have been a member because of the country's constitutional restrictions on the military to defense only. However, Japan did offer $200 million in humanitarian aid to countries fighting ISIS. KForce NightWatch and NY Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Feb-15 World View -- Nationalism surges in Japan and Jordan after ISIS atrocities thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Feb-2015)
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Jordan returns its ambassador to Israel
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive military to enforce its seizures. In addition to building oil rigs and taking control of fishing grounds in other countries' territories, China has been building man-made islands to use as military bases and landing strips. China has claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose. Instead, China is becoming increasingly belligerent militarily, annexing other nations' territories, and militarizing the entire sea. This is exactly the behavior that the Nazis used, leading to World War II.
China has already created a new island nearly 2 miles long and several hundred yards wide. China is rapidly building five man-made islands from tiny reefs and shoals in the South China Sea. These islands will be used to for military operations, including combat and support aircraft, when the inevitable day arrives that China's seizures of other countries' territories leads to a military confrontation that could spiral into war. LA Times and Janes Defense Weekly
With China becoming more and more militarily belligerent in the South China Sea, a Pentagon official said that the U.S. would welcome Japanese air patrols over the South China Sea. According to Admiral Robert Thomas:
"I think allies, partners and friends in the region will look to the Japanese more and more as a stabilizing function. In the South China Sea, frankly, the Chinese fishing fleet, the Chinese coastguard and the (navy) overmatch their neighbors. I think that JSDF (Japan Maritime Self Defense Forces) operations in the South China Sea makes sense in the future."
However, the State Dept. and the Pentagon may be in disagreement over this idea. State Department spokesman Jen Psaki said, "We’re not aware of any plans or proposals for Japan to patrol the South China Sea. ... It sounds like reports aren’t accurate." Reuters and Japan Times
On Monday, Jordan announced that its country's ambassador to Israel Walid Obeidat would be returning to Jordan's embassy in Tel Aviv.
Obeidat was recalled three months ago at a time of violence in the Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Temple Mount is the holiest site in the Jewish religion, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third holiest site in Islam, after Mecca and Medina. When violence forced Israel to shut down access to the Al-Aqsa mosque for two days, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas called it "tantamount to a declaration of war," and Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel. Jordan had said that Israeli practices in Jerusalem were undermining 1994 peace treaty between the two countries. The peace treaty had reaffirmed Jordanian oversight of Jerusalem's holy sites.
In its announcement on Monday, Jordan's government says it noted a "positive development" in Israel's stance as 65,000 worshippers now pray in al-Aqsa Mosque on Fridays. Middle East Eye and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Feb-15 World View -- China builds more man-made islands in the South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Feb-2015)
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The Iraq war had nothing to do with the federal deficit
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
We have governments around the world spending like drunken sailors. Japan and Europe are planning enormous quantitative easing programs, and the new radical far-left government in Greece is demanding that many of its debts be erased so that it can go on a new spending binge.
America's experiment with "sequestration" was truly mind-boggling. It was proposed by President Obama as a stunt, thinking that the Republicans would never agree to let it be applied to defense spending, and then when the Republicans signed on, we could all enjoy a few rounds of Schadenfreude watching Obama try to squirm out of it.
What was mind-boggling about it is that it did cap spending in Washington for a while, something akin to pigs flying, and something that could only have happened by accident -- in this case the unexpected outcome of Obama's stunt.
But now many Republicans are pointing to unrest in the Mideast and the militaristic rise of China with concerns for the defense budget, while Obama would like to join Greece in going on a new spending binge.
A major part of that spending binge is on Obamacare, which is a financial disaster but is being held together with duct tape and astronomical subsidies. In 2014, 87% of federal Obamacare enrollees got subsidies. For the silver plan, out of an annual $4,140 premium, the subsidy amounts to $3,132, leaving the patient only $828 to pay out of the $4,140. And even with that, a typical deductible is $5,000-15,000, which means that most of these insured are effectively uninsured, since they'll have to pay all their own medical expenses anyway. So there may be more "effectively uninsured" people today than there were uninsured people in the past.
Then there's CNBC, where the analysts lie constantly about stock valuations. I used to quote analysts doing this, hoping to name and shame them. (See, for example, "14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations" from 2012.) But now criminal fraud is so entrenched in the culture that no one has any shame. And they're just taking after the Obama administration that brings criminal investigations against reporters they don't like, and uses the IRS to attack political opponents with a level of criminality that goes far beyond what Richard Nixon ever dreamed of or was threatened with impeachment for. Congress is just as bad, with massive insider trading and fraud conducted by both parties and both branches of Congress, as exposed by former Breitbart editor Peter Schweizer, covered at length on the CBS show 60 Minutes.
By the way, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (January 31) is still at an astronomically high 19.79. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
I've been around for a long time, but I never thought I'd live to see the current massive level of criminality in Washington and on Wall Street.
With sequestration likely to be thrown out, and a new spending binge approved in Washington and around the world, this is a good time to go over some interesting facts about the federal deficit. AP and Guardian (London)
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We're going to look at the above graph, step by step, to show where the federal budget deficit comes from.
Almost everybody believes that the large federal budget deficit was caused by the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nothing could be farther from the truth. In fact, since the deficit began in the year 2000, so the Iraq war couldn't have caused it.
So start by looking at the above graph. To begin, focus on the blue line - government expenditures:
Next, in the above graph, focus on the red line - government income / tax receipts:
Finally, in the above graph, focus on the green line - government surplus or deficit (surplus increase upward, deficit increases downward):
So the government surplus at the end of the 1990s was caused by the tech bubble. The government deficit in the early 2000s was caused by the crash of the tech bubble. The reduced deficit in the mid-2000s decade was caused by the real estate bubble. The deficit increased when the real estate bubble crashed. Now the deficit is coming down because of the new stock market bubble.
As I wrote above, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio is at astronomically high levels. It will fall to about 5-6 or lower at some point, and the stock market index will fall by 75% or more.
At that point, the deficit will soar to unsustainable levels, and all these new spending programs will have to be canceled, except those on which the survival of the country depends.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Feb-2015)
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Spain's far left Podemos party hopes to copy success of Greece's Syriza party
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A week after Greece's radical far-left Syriza took power in Greece, Spain's radical far-left Podemos (Spanish for "we can") hopes to do the same. In a major show of force, some 100,000 party supporters held anti-austerity demonstrations in Madrid on Saturday, chanting "Yes we can" and "tick tock tick tock," the latter to tell politicians that the clock was ticking. The party is tapping into anger over austerity programs that the EU forced them to impose and over corruption among the political elites.
Podemos makes many of the same promises that Syriza did. They promise to significantly raise the minimum wage, enact laws preventing businesses from laying off employees, lowering the retirement age from 65 to 60, and increasing pension payments.
However, the path for Podemos will be much harder than it was for Syriza. Podemos is polling at only 30%, not enough to gain a majority, and without the ability to take advantage of any quirk in Spain's election laws similar to one in Greece's election laws that turned Syriza's 36% plurality into a governing majority. Furthermore, Spain's economy has been doing a lot better under austerity than Greece's has. Even though the unemployment rate is still 23.7%, it's been steadily declining.
The rapid growth of Podemos in Spain shows the danger that Europe is facing in its crisis negotiations with Greece. If Europe is too tough, then Greece could be forced to leave the eurozone, which would some analysts say would be disastrous for both Greece and the eurozone. And if Europe is too easy on Greece, then you get "contamination," where countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy will demand similar treatment that Germany, among others, would not stand for. Spain Report and Bloomberg
Egypt is still in shock in the aftermath of Thursday's multi-location terror attack in North Sinai that killed 25-30 people, most of them soldiers. Egypt had imposed a curfew and harsh security measures on North Sinai after a large terror attack in October, and it's clear that those security measures have failed.
On Saturday, Egypt announced harsh new measures to try to prevent new violence.
Egypt's "Cairo Court of Urgent Matters" issued a verdict banning Hamas and designating its military wing Al-Qassam Brigades as "terrorist organizations." The court ruled that:
A spokesman for Hamas said that the verdict was "dangerous," and that "Al-Qassam Brigades are the symbol of resistance against the Israeli occupation, and a symbol of the [Palestinian] nation's pride and dignity, despite all attempts at defamation."
Shortly after the court decision, in a strident televised speech on Saturday, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi blamed Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and unnamed foreign countries for the terror attacks on Egypt:
The terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) took credit for Thursday's terror attack, and has perpetrated numerous attacks in the past. In November, ABM changed its allegiance from al-Qaeda to the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL). At the same time, ABM changed its name to "State of Sinai," in harmony with the ISIS name "Islamic State."
Hamas itself was founded in the early 1980s as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, and there were reports last year that the Brotherhood is funding ABM. According to Nabil Naeem, founder of the Islamic Jihad, another terror group in Gaza, ABM has two branches, one in Gaza and one in Sinai, and has close relations with Hamas.
Al-Sisi concluded:
"We will not leave Sinai to anyone. With your will the army will win its confrontation with the terrorists.It was your will on the 30 June 2013 (the date of mass anti-Morsi protests), and it was one of the hardest decisions taken by you; and it's your will that will keep Egypt strong and able to defeat these terrorists."
We've been reporting since last summer on the changing alliances in the Mideast, particularly the aftermath of a major Mideast realignment following the Gaza war, bringing Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia plus the Palestinian Authority in alliance versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey plus the Muslim Brotherhood. The split between Qatar and Egypt had been particularly vitriolic prior to the war, ever since the ouster of Mohamed Morsi, but after the Gaza war the split between the Saudis and Qataris was equally vitriolic. Saudi King Abdullah acted as a mediator and was able to paper over the differences and obtain a reconciliation in time for an Arab summit meeting in December.
But now King Abdullah has passed away, and two things on Saturday indicate that the vitriol is returning in full force: the court verdict banning Hamas, and al-Sisi's accusations directed at "foreign countries."
Lebanon's last generational crisis war was the 1980s war with Syria, putting Lebanon today into a generational Awakening era, and so it is quite believable that the Lebanese people do not want another war with Israel, and so Hezbollah is backing down from war with Israel, as I wrote yesterday.
But Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are in generational Crisis eras, and so are attracted to war. So it's very unlikely that there will be a new reconciliation between Egypt and Qatar, or between Egypt and Hamas. Israel and Egypt now appear to be firmly in the same corner, fighting terrorist acts from Palestinians, al-Qaeda and ISIS, and these relationships are expected strengthen with each new terrorist attack. The Muslim versus Muslim war in the Mideast, North Africa, and South Asia, that I've been describing for weeks, continues to grow and become more dangerous on a weekly basis. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Daily News Egypt and Al Ahram and Egypt Independent (9-Sep-2014)
Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in several cities in Yemen on Saturday, as opposition continues to grow against the Houthi takeover of the government in Sanaa. Houthi militia fighters used live ammunition to break up the demonstrations, firing live rounds into the air. Several protesters were reportedly abducted on Saturday by Houthis, including youth activist Fouad al-Hamdani. Al Jazeera and Middle East Eye
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Feb-15 World View -- Egypt's al-Sisi blames foreign countries for terrorist attacks thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Feb-2015)
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