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Germany to deport thousands of Afghan and Balkans migrants home
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In what appears to be a move of desperation, German officials have announced plans to deport thousands of migrants back to their home countries -- especially the Balkan nations and Afghanistan.
Hundreds of thousands of migrants that have streamed into Europe this year, mainly from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, with Germany their ultimate destination because of its more plentiful jobs. The stream of migrants actually seems to be increasing, from 5-6,000 per week last month to 7-8,000 per week now. The migrants arrive in Greece, and travel north through the Balkan nations.
However, the stream of migrants also include tens of thousands whose home countries are the Balkan nations themselves. These migrants are also dreaming of getting a job in Germany.
Also significant is the number of migrants arriving from Afghanistan. Tens of thousands of translators, construction workers, drivers, bodyguards, cleaning personnel and cooks who worked for the military and international NGOs are now unemployed. Rents and real estate skyrocketed after 2001, when the market was inflated by the wartime economy, but now they have abruptly plunged. The country is in a dramatic downward economic spiral. On Sept. 28, when the Taliban captured the strategically significant provincial city of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan, many people who had held out started packing their bags. About 3,000 Afghans are now coming into Iran every day illegally. From there, they continue to Turkey, where human smugglers take them to the Greek islands, from which they can cross the Balkans to Northern Europe. The crisis in Afghanistan has already driven millions of refugees into Iran, and the Iranians deport hundreds of illegal Afghan immigrants every day.
The numbers are overwhelming Germany, and are causing fights among Germany's provinces over how to distribute the migrants. On Wednesday, Germany's interior minister Thomas de Maizière, said that many Afghans from relatively safe areas of their country would be sent home:
"Large amounts of development aid have gone to Afghanistan [over the last decade] — so we can expect that Afghans stay in their country. So I am saying very clearly today that people who come to us as refugees from Afghanistan cannot all expect to be able to stay in Germany. ...I expect that in the coming weeks, the number of deportations and of voluntary departures will rise significantly. ... [In addition,] tens of thousands of rejected asylum seekers from the Balkans would have to leave our country."
More and more Europeans are questioning Europe's open borders policy, and border closings are increasingly common. Some are advocating a return to the days when all borders between European nations were closed. However, one European official says, "It's not all that sure that we would be able to manage the way we used to, 20 or 30 years ago. Now we have so much in common trade, industry, that if we go back to national domestic borders, it would be a total new landscape and we would need to find totally new ways of managing these borders." RFERL and Der Spiegel (Germany) and USA Today and NPR
In what appears to be a move of desperation, President Obama reversed his previous declarations, repeated dozens of times, that there would be "no American boots on the ground" in Syria. The Obama administration on Friday announced that 50 Special Operations forces would be deployed to northern Syria, to provide "training and assistance."
Analysts that I heard said that Obama was forced into the U-turn because Russia and Iran have stolen the initiative in Syria, making the U.S. irrelevant. Politicians on the left criticized Obama's escalation of the American military involvement, while politicians on the right called it too little too late. Some analysts said the move was pointless because 50 troops can't accomplish anything. CNN's military analyst Robert Baer said, "Put in hundreds of thousands of troops, or don't get in at all." There were unconfirmed reports that the administration is planning further escalations.
This comes just a month after President Obama's latest escalation in the American involvement in the Afghanistan war. He had repeatedly declared that American would withdraw long before he left office, but the the withdrawal date was extended several times, and will now extend into the term of the next president. Once again, further escalations may be necessary. ( "29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia")
I've written many times about the Truman Doctrine, from President Harry Truman in 1947, which made America policeman of the world. The justification is that it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John Kennedy's "ask not" speech, and every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman. We continue to see what happens to the world when it no longer has a policeman. Washington Post and CNN and Guardian (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Oct-15 World View -- President Obama orders American special forces into Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Oct-2015)
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Israeli Arab citizens stop rioting because of pocketbook issues
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The split among Israeli Arab politicians made front page news earlier this month when Ali Salam, the Palestinian mayor of Nazareth, accused the Arab MKs (Members of Knesset or Parliament) of inciting Palestinian violence, saying, "I blame the leaders. What is happening is not appropriate. It is just ruining our future, ruining our coexistence."
The incident occurred on October 10, when Arab MK Ayman Odeh was being interviewed for a TV appearance. Salam interrupted the interview as it was being filmed, and yelled:
"Ayman, go find something to do. You have ruined our city. Enough interviews... You have ruined the city. No Jews came here today. Why are you conducting an interview? You had your protest and ruined the entire world."
Salam was referring to the fact that the recent Palestinian violence has led to a sharp drop in Jewish customers, resulting in complaints from local business owners.
Ayman Odeh is the leader of the "Joint (Arab) List" political party, formed last spring as an alliance of four predominantly Arab parties with members in the Knesset. When the alliance was formed, Odeh said:
"We are the only party that talks about national and social rights for both Arabs and Jews.In Israel, the right-wing call themselves the 'nationalist camp', and the left call themselves the 'Zionist camp'. We want to be the base of the democratic camp, and we hope that more and more democratic people - Jews and Arabs - will join us."
In the ensuing months, few Jews have joined the party, and Joint List members have been accused of inciting Palestinian violence against Jews, even by other Arabs. Mayor Ali Salam's vocal confrontation with Odeh on October 10 has highlighted those criticisms.
According to a recent poll, 54% of Israeli Arab respondents believe that the Arab MKs do not represent them, because they seem to deal only with Palestinian issues, and never with the everyday problems of the Israeli Arabs that they supposedly represent. 25% say that Arab MKs represent them fairly well, and only a minority of 16% say that they represent them “very much.”
However, another Arab MK, Zouheir Bahloul, who not to a Joint List party but to the Zionist Camp party provides a detailed explanation of the controversy from his point of view:
"I don’t want to be the Joint List’s defense attorney, but you can’t say that they are Jew-haters or spies or a fifth column in the Knesset. However, when I decided to go into politics, I joined a typical Israeli party and not a clearly Arab party. I want to be legitimate in the inner Israeli discourse that operates without angry tones and raised voices, because I’m sick and tired of this stuff. I also think that most of the Arab public wants to create a new discourse with the Israeli public. So while it’s true that the Joint List's [election] achievement is unprecedented, that is mainly because the Arab dream of going to the elections as one united bloc has finally been realized. ...[With regard to the feud between Ali Salam and Ayman Odeh] I didn’t like the style, but I liked the debate. This discourse is very important, even if it wasn't conducted in the spirit of [late Israeli etiquette guru] Hana Bavli. It was important to activate the discussion within the Arab minority in Israel. Although the Jews loved this split, naturally, and completely identified with Ali Salam, its importance is internal [within the Arab sector]. For years and years, no discourse has been conducted within the Arab minority that emphasizes what is supposed to appear on its public agenda. This confrontation showed that the Arab sector is not one homogenous, herd-like minority. The Arab minority is pluralistic and diverse, although it always tried to appear homogenous vis-a-vis the Israeli public, which is a mistake."
However, as I've pointed out in the past, (e.g., "18-Oct-15 World View -- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive"), there is no longer any real opportunity to resolve this debate politically. The young "Oslo Generation" of 15-22 year old youths who grew up after the 1993 Oslo Accords, which they view as having been worthless, no longer even want to listen to any politicians, including Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, or Israeli Arab MKs. They are looking for a leader who take them to war against the Israelis, and at some point, such a leader will emerge. Memri and Al Jazeera (29-Mar-2015) and Al Monitor and Jewish Press
Widespread riots and demonstration by Israeli Arab citizens began on October 1, with organized protests in most of the Arab communities, including dozens of instances of blocking roads with burning tires, as well as hurling rocks and firebombs and police and civilian vehicles.
However, the riots have stopped almost as quickly as they started, according to a police spokesman:
"For two weeks, there was an awakening and an intensification of the protests and riots. But for the last week and a half there has been utter quiet in the Northern District."
The reason is that they fear a social backlash and economic boycott from the Jews in the Israeli society, something that deeply hurt the Arab community when the intifada began in 2000. For example, mail deliveries may cease in Arab communities over fears for the personal security of those delivering the mail. Similarly, deliveries of food and equipment to Arab communities could be curtailed.
These are difficult times for the 1.7 million Palestinian citizens of Israel, about 20% of the country's population. According one Arab restaurant owner who has lost 40% of his business:
"We are caught between the hammer and the anvil. We don’t believe in violence and we are suffering from this economically. But we can’t stay silent while occupation and incitement against Palestinians goes on."
Israeli Arabs are far behind the Israeli national average in education, employment, although they are much better of than Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel National News and Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli Arab citizens and politicians choose sides on incitement issue thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Oct-2015)
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Iran's Rafsanjani admits to nuclear development since 1980s
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In what's being called a major admission by Iran's leadership, Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of Iran's Expediency Council and the political rival of Iranian Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei, earlier this week admitted that Iran has been developing nuclear weapons since the 1980s. In a televised interview, Rafsanjani explained that the work began because Iran was at war with Iraq, and Iraq had begun developing its own nuclear facilities at Osirak. Iran had attempted to bomb and destroy these facilities early in 1980, and they were finally destroyed by Israel's fighter jets in late 1980.
According to Rafsanjani, the early work that was done was for peaceful use of nuclear energy, but also provided the option of quickly developing a nuclear weapon if that became necessary:
"As I have said, when we started the [nuclear] work, we were at war, and we wanted to have such an option for the day our enemies wanted to use nuclear weapons. This was [our] state of mind, but things never become serious.However, we took seriously the non-military uses [of the nuclear project], and so we invested money and did a great deal of work. We worked in various areas and also taught a great deal. We dispatched students and invited scientists and many other things of this sort. The principle of our doctrine was the use of nuclear [energy] for peaceful purposes, even though we never abandoned [the idea] that if we were some day to face a certain threat, and if it became necessary, then we would have the option of going to the other side [i.e. to develop nuclear weapons]. But we did not have a plan to do this, and we never deviated [from civilian use]."
In addition, Rafsanjani acknowledged in this interview that Iran received nuclear technology from Pakistan's nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. Khan built Pakistan's first nuclear weapon, and also provided nuclear technology to North Korea. Rafsanjani also acknowledged that from the onset there has been a comprehensive clandestine nuclear plan, including construction of secret sites, enrichment of uranium, manufacture of centrifuge parts, laser technology, and the heavy water reactor. Much of this work was performed when Rafsanjani himself was Iran's president, from 1989 to 1997.
The reason that this is a big deal is that these admissions may mean that Iran has been violating the terms of the United Nations Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory. That admission would have affected the nuclear agreement negotiations, and also contradicts the claims of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei that he issued a fatwa in October 2003 saying that any development of nuclear weapons is forbidden. Memri and Times of Israel and National Council of Resistance of Iran
The debate over the 2003 Iraq war continues to be almost unbelievably bizarre. People who say that the war should not have occurred almost all suffer from mental deficit that keeps them from grasping the logical contradiction: The only reason we know today that Saddam Hussein wasn't developing WMDs is because of the war. So if the war hadn't occurred, then Saddam could have freely developed WMDs, and we presumably wouldn't know to this day whether he was doing so -- which he almost certainly would be doing.
I've felt for a long time the people who need to apologize for the Iraq war are not the ones who supported it, but the people who opposed it. In 2003, almost everyone in the world had been convinced for years that Saddam was developing WMDs and was going to use them (again), so anyone who opposed the Iraq war needs to explain why he was willing to allow Saddam to kill tens or hundreds of thousands of people with WMDs.
We know why France's prime minister Jacques Chirac, Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and U.N. secretary general Kofi Annan were all opposed to the Iraq war. They were all implicated in skimming hundreds of millions of dollars from Iraq's "Oil for Food" program. This was discovered when a list of the corrupt officials was found in Iraq's Oil Ministry after the war. In other words, Chirac, Putin and Annan didn't care how many people were slaughtered by Saddam's WMDs; the three of them were just crooks that didn't want their corruption to be discovered, no matter how many people were killed. As for Barack Obama, who also opposed the war, we've never had an explanation for why he was willing to allow Saddam to kill hundreds of thousands of people, except that perhaps he was doing what Reverend Jeremiah Wright told him to do. ( "18-Jun-14 World View -- Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq")
Most of the world believed that Saddam had WMDs and was going to use them (again), and that undoubtedly includes the leaders in Iran, who were targeted by Saddam's chemical weapons in 1988.
I've been saying for years that if it hadn't been for the 2003 Iraq war, then Iran would have pursued its own WMD program with much more vigor.
Western intelligence agencies believe that it was just after the 2003 Iraq war that Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei halted research into nuclear weapons, and issued the October 2003 fatwa to that effect.
Hashemi Rafsanjani's interview does not mention the 2003 Iraq war or the fatwa, but his description of over 20 years of nuclear development as of 2003 provides strong support for the belief that Iran would pursued WMDs more vigorously than ever, and Khamenei certainly would not have issued his nuclear fatwa in October 2003.
It's highly probable that if the Iraq war hadn't been fought, then Iran and Iraq would have begun a WMD development war. Saudi Arabia would have followed suit, and we would have many Mideast countries with WMDs today. It's quite possible that the Bush administration foresaw this scenario, and it was one of the reasons why the 2003 Iraq war was pursued. Politico (22-Jun-2015)
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has frequently expressed hostility to the nuclear agreement, and he seems to have become even more hostile ever since the agreement was signed.
Last week, Khamenei sent a letter to Iran's president Hassan Rouhani, ordering him not to implement the terms of the nuclear agreement unless a number of brand new conditions were attached. There were nine new conditions, including the following: All sanctions must immediately be not just suspended but canceled, and may not be reinstated even if Iran breaks the agreement; many of Iran's requirements, such as shipping out most of the country's stockpile of enriched uranium, or to "renovate" the Arak nuclear reactor, will be postponed indefinitely; Iran's ability to enrich uranium will be expanded.
In his interview, Rafsanjani has come out publicly challenging Khamenei's orders. He made use of the fact that the Iranian people overwhelmingly favor the agreement -- not because they want Iran to end nuclear development, but because they want the economic sanctions lifted. Rafsanjani brushes aside Khamenei's new conditions:
"Eighty to 90 percent of the people agree to the process of the JCPOA, and want to get out [of the nuclear dossier]. 'The concerned' [i.e. the ideological camp] know this. The Majlis sessions that preceded the vote [on the Majlis plan on the JCPOA] cost 'the concerned' dearly... because they affiliate themselves, in a way, with the leader [Khamenei] and it is as if they are expressing the leader's view. The leader has a tongue, and, more than anyone else, is capable of speaking [his own mind]. He could have prevented them [from speaking], and there was no need for the feud and the arguments [in the Majlis]. It is very bad that they behaved like this in the Majlis. But this is the method of the leader [Khamenei], who lets others speak their minds. It would not have been bad if [the ideological camp] had acted morally and in accordance with national interests."
Rafsanjani appears to be laying the ground work for a rebellion against Khamenei, and from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this would not be surprising.
Recall that Iran is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war. Just like America's Awakening era in the 1960s, the era politically pits the generations of war survivors against the generation that grew up after the war. Rafsanjani is in the same generation as Khamenei, and yet Rafsanjani is often referred to as a "moderate," because he adopts the positions of the younger generations, and sometimes opposes the hardline positions of other Great Revolution survivors. Memri (22-Oct) and Jerusalem Post and Memri
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Oct-15 World View -- Iran's government splits over implementation of nuclear deal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Oct-2015)
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Sunni jihadist suicide bomber targets Shia mosque in Saudi Arabia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A Sunni jihadist suicide bomber on Monday killed three people and wounded dozens by attacking the Shia al-Mashhad mosque in Najran, a city in southeastern Saudi Arabia near the border with Yemen. The city is the historic center of the Ismailis, a Shia sect which has long complained of victimization by Wahhabis, whose theology prevails in Saudi Arabia and, in extreme forms, is used by violent Sunni jihadists to justify their acts.
The attacker has been identified as Abu Ishaq al-Hijazi, as Saudi nation who has spent four years with the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). After the attack, a video prerecorded by the attacker appeared on the internet. In it, he blamed the Shias, the Saudi soldiers who protect the Shia mosques, and also the pilots whose warplanes attack ISIS in Syria:
"My first message is a threat to the rejectionist Ismailis ... you will not enjoy life in the [Arabian] Peninsula. ...My second message, to the soldiers of the tyrant who protect the polytheists and their temples in (Saudi Arabia) ... you will not be safe in your homes or your offices and we'll target you as long as the planes of your guardian hit Muslims with Crusader planes in Iraq and Syria."
Al Arabiya and Reuters and Arab News
As I suggested last month in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast", one of worst outcomes from Russia's military intervention in Syria would occur if jihadists saw it as an Orthodox Christian invasion of a Muslim country in the same way that they viewed the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as a Christian invasion of a Muslim country.
That's exactly what's happening. Earlier this month, 55 Saudi clerics signed and published a statement calling on all Syrians to join the jihad against Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The statement said that this was a war launched by "the Orthodox crusader Russia" against the Muslim Syria:
"After nearly five years of unrelenting political and military support for the 'Alawite regime, Russia is now throwing its full weight behind [it] and is intervening directly and militarily to protect the Bashar Al-Assad regime from falling. In light of this most terrible calamity and war crime on the part of an influential country that presumes to be responsible for world justice and peace, we hereby declare the following:"O Russians, the most extreme among Christians – [there is] nothing new under the sun! 36 years ago the communist Soviet Union invaded the Muslim Afghanistan to support the Communist Party and protect it from falling. And now, its successor, the Orthodox crusader Russia, is invading the Muslim Syria to support the 'Alawite regime and protect it from falling; it must learn a lesson from the fate of its predecessor. The heads of your Orthodox Church have declared [the Russian intervention of Syria] a crusader holy war, just as [George] Bush Jr. did in the past [regarding the American invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq]. Know that Muslims will redeem their faith by sacrificing their lives, souls, and all they hold dear, and just as they expelled you from Afghanistan, they will bring about you humiliating defeat in Syria, Allah willing.
O, our men in Syria – the calamity afflicting you is severely worsening and your test has lasted a long time... You must fear Allah, repent, and trust in Allah... Know that Russia only intervened to save the regime from certain defeat. Through you, Allah defeated the security [mechanisms] of the regime and its shabiha [militias], followed by its army, and later the Shi'ite Safavid groups from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. Through you, He defeated the Party of Satan [i.e. Hezbullah] and He can defeat the Russians [as well]. Therefore, persevere and endure and remain stationed and fear Allah, that you may be successful' (Koran 3:200)... We call on you to hold on, and we urge the men [of the various groups], [all] able and skilled people in all fields, to stay and not leave Syria, and to take part in building and liberating [it]. We call on the able among you to join the ranks of jihad, for this is your hour... Swiftly join the jihad against the enemy of God and your enemy, and Allah will be with you, and the Muslims will stand behind you as much as they can. The dawn of victory is at hand. ...
Allah, please hasten the victory of the people of Syria... and defeat the armies that have conspired against us"
There is no doubt that the majority in Saudi Arabia and Arab countries in general are furious at the Russian intervention in Syria. Nonetheless, the statement has generated quite a bit of debate in Saudi Arabia, including condemnation by many in the media. Some journalists have pointed out that purpose of the statement is really incite a generational Muslim mobilization, especially among Saudi youth. This is quite plausible, since the most of the young jihadists who went to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s were Saudi youth, and one of them was Osama bin Laden.
According to one journalist, "The new inciters... are firing in our direction once more. The new call for jihad is a new trap to snare the youth."
As I described last month in "12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11", the country's al-Saud ruling family and the Salafist group known as the Wahhabis made an agreement in the 1920s that allowed the al-Saud family to rule the country, and the Wahhabis to control the mosques and religious education. It was the unraveling of that agreement in the 1980-90s that led to the creation of al-Qaeda as an enemy of the West, but also of Saudi Arabia itself. As that agreement continues to unravel, Saudi society itself is split.
Many Saudis were undoubtedly further infuriated last week to read about the visit by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad Moscow, and his statement of thanks to Russia's president Vladimir Putin:
"First of all I wanted to express my huge gratitude to the whole leadership of the Russian federation for the help they are giving Syria. If it was not for your actions and your decisions, the terrorism which is spreading in the region would have swallowed up a much greater area and spread over an even greater area."
There is a large but minority Shia population in Saudi Arabia, but they are becoming increasingly frightened by the growing hostility and open sectarianism of many Sunnis. Even Saudi social media messages on the Internet contain increasingly open incitement against Shia. Memri and Guardian (London, 21-Oct) and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Oct-15 World View -- Russia's intervention in Syria increases Saudi-Mideast sectarian tension thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Oct-2015)
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What was the purpose of Russia's Caspian Sea cruise missile attack on Syria?
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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We recently reported on plans for the US Navy to send a vessel into the South China Sea close to the man-made island chain that China has been building, apparently to provide a platform for a large military base. ( "16-Oct-15 World View -- China and US poised for South China Sea military confrontation")
There are now reports that the U.S. Navy plans to send the destroyer USS Lassen within 12 nautical miles of artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea within 24 hours. The ship would likely be accompanied by a U.S. Navy P-8A surveillance plane and possibly P-3 surveillance plane.
According to an unnamed Pentagon official: "This is something that will be a regular occurrence, not a one-off event. It’s not something that’s unique to China."
In the past few weeks since the reports first surfaced, there have highly nationalistic and belligerent Chinese media reports, such as the following from the Global Times that I quoted in my last article:
"Despite the legitimacy of China's construction work and the public good it can provide, if the US adopts an aggressive approach, it will be a breach of China's bottom line, and China will not sit idly by.China has remained calm with self-restraint even in the face of Washington's escalating provocations, but if the US encroaches on China's core interests, the Chinese military will stand up and use force to stop it."
However, there have been no such threats coming from China's Ministry of Defense, suggesting that there won't be an immediate military confrontation after all. However, tensions are sure to increase, as nationalistic anti-American fury is sure to increase in China.
Many people have expressed concern that American would just stand by and do nothing but observe as China annexed regions of the South China Sea belonging to other nations, just as Nato stood by and only observed Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula last year, and just as Britain stood by and only observed as Adolf Hitler annexed part of Czechoslovakia in 1939, leading to World War II. So the fact that the Obama administration is taking this step to stand up to China will come as a surprise to a lot of people, including me.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China and the United States are headed for war anyway, whether America stands up to China in the South China Sea or not. Reuters and CNN and Global Times (Beijing 15-Oct)
It's now been almost three weeks since Russia's president Vladimir Putin ordered the Caspian Sea fleet to launch a volley of 26 cruise missiles at Syria, traveling 1,500 km over the countries of Iran and Iraq to reach their targets in the Syrian cities of Raqqa, Idlib and Aleppo. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea")
There seems to have been no follow-up from the October 7 Caspian Sea missile attack, and so a number of questions have arisen as to the purpose of the attack, and why the Russians didn't simply attack the same targets through airstrikes, or through missiles launched from Russia's Mediterranean fleet or from the Latakia, Syria, airbase. It seems clear that Russia's purpose was to send a message. But what message(s) was Russia sending?
Besides the obvious message to the West that Russia's military is back in the game, there were several other messages:
The Russian launch from the Caspian Sea has forced civil aviation changes. The Kazakhstan carrier Air Astana announced it was altering the route of its Almaty-Baku flight to reduce the risk of a potential missile-related accident, or a repeat of the shoot-down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has issued a warning concerning all flights crossing the airspace above the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq. EurasiaNet and Jamestown and Silk Road Reporters
As another sign that the financial services organizations are returning to the abusive practices that led to the financial crisis of 2007-8, BlackRock Inc. has found that insurance companies are increasingly making risky investments.
The most serious investment problem facing insurers is the low interest rate environment, led by the near-zero Federal Reserve funds rate, currently at 0.12%. In normal times, insurers invest money is corporate or government bonds, but in the current environment, the yield (interest rate) on these bonds is also close to zero.
According to BlackRock analyst David Lomas:
"The mix of divergent central bank policy, bond market liquidity risk, and a heightened regulatory regime, presents the industry with a dilemma. Opportunities exist to protect balance sheet health and maintain challenged business lines, but investors need to quickly get familiar with diversifying portfolios into higher-risk, higher-yield assets, and also closely manage the risks inherent in these new areas."
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In other words, many insurers are investing in risky derivatives and exchange-traded funds, in the hope of getting higher yields. In addition, many insurers are investing in stocks, despite the high S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio. Insurers are incurring exactly the same kinds of risks that led to the last financial crisis.
There's a big irony in this situation. As we said, the biggest investment problem is the low interest rate environment, led by the Fed's near-zero funds rate. But insurers say that one of their biggest risks is that interest rates may increase, triggering a correction in stock prices, and possibly a recession.
Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (October 23) was at an astronomically high 22.07. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower. Bloomberg and Insurance Asset Risk
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Oct-15 World View -- US Navy to challenge China in the South China Sea today thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Oct-2015)
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Hey kids, what time is it? In Turkey, it's Erdogan Time!
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Poland's eurosceptic Law and Justice party (PiS) claimed victory on Sunday, after exit polls showed that it won 39.1% of the total, far higher than expected. This gives PiS enough seats in parliament to govern alone, without having to form a governing alliance with another party.
The party's leader is Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is disliked by many people in Poland, and who has led the party to defeat in recent elections. In this election, Kaczynski put up Ms Beata Szydlo to become prime minister if PiS wins, which appears certain. Some people suspect that Szydlo will be a puppet controlled by puppetmaster Kaczynski.
Kaczynski promised to be nice to the people his party had just defeated:
"We will exert law but there will be no taking of revenge. There will be no squaring of personal accounts. There will be no kicking of those who have fallen through their own fault and very rightly so."
Some of the positions of PiS are:
PiS wants to build stronger ties with the rest of Central Europe, a bloc that Warsaw hopes to lead, in opposition to many of the policies of Western Europe. BBC and Politico (EU) and SwissInfo
With Europe's refugee crisis reaching a tipping point that could be an existential threat for the European Union, an emergency meeting of the European Commission (EC) in Brussels on Sunday reached agreement.
Nearly 250,000 migrants have passed through the Balkans since mid-September, and cold weather has not slowed the surge. Croatia said 11,500 people crossed into the country Saturday; Croatia has been waving the migrants through into the tiny country of Slovenia. Slovenia has been overwhelmed, with 60,000 arriving in the last ten days.
Slovenian Prime Minister Miro Cerar said on Sunday morning:
"The situation is truly serious. If we don’t deliver some immediate and concrete actions on the ground in the next days and weeks, I believe the whole European Union and Europe as a whole will start to fall apart."
The apocalyptic words were triggered by visions of thousands of migrants having to sleep on the ground in freezing weather, and hundreds dying from hypothermia at the closed border crossings.
Everyone seemed to agree that the problem could not be solved without Turkey's help in blocking migration from Turkey to Greece, but Turkey was not represented at the meeting.
Except for that one point, the meeting was extremely contentious, with the West Europeans demanding that the Balkan states follow international law with regard to protection of refugees, and the Balkan states demanding that the EU take responsibility for the refugees.
Because temperatures are already falling below freezing at night, the EC meeting focused on getting shelter for the migrants as quickly as possible. Reception centers will be built by the end of the year in Greece and the Balkan countries, to hold 100,000 refugees. Also, the EU will send 400 police officers to Slovenia, to help with the surge of migrants.
The plan agreed to by the EC nations have the following main points:
It's one thing to agree to a plan, and another thing to spend the money to implement it. For one thing, it's not clear to me how these reception centers will be built in time to prevent mass hypothermia. It may be that one (unstated) part of the plan is to keep as many refugees in Greece for as long as possible, since the weather is warm there. Politico (EU) and BBC and Guardian (London)
Sunday was the day in the Eastern European Time (EET) Zone that clocks were turned back one hour, to end daylight saving time. (In North America, this change is made one week later, on November 1.)
However, Turkey is in chaos because president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has decreed that the time change will be delayed for TWO weeks in Turkey, until November 8, the first Sunday after the November 1 elections.
Apparently President Erdogan has absolutely no clue how computers work. Operating systems for almost all computers -- desktops, smartphones, tablets, etc. -- have been programmed for years to put Turkey into the Eastern European Time Zone, and to set the time back one hour on October 25, 2015. Erdogan's last minute decree to put Turkey into its own special time zone and to set the time back on November 8 is not reflected in computer software, and an update would have taken weeks.
The result is mass confusion in Turkey about what time it is. According to news reports, people are already missing appointments, including Muslim prayer times.
According to one British expat:
"We’re on special ‘Erdogan time’ as he decided not to implement daylight savings until after the election.Unfortunately, while he CAN hold back time, he CAN'T hold back automatic clocks which seem to have gone ahead and changed the hour regardless. Hence we're all very confused."
According to one Twitter user: "For the next two weeks #Turkey is on EEST... Erdogan Engineered Standard Time."
Erdogan apparently has difficulty learning this lesson. On March 30, 2014, Turkey delayed the switch to daylight savings time by one day. Flights were delayed, and automatic baggage handling system at the stanbul airport malfunctioned on Sunday morning when passengers started checking in due to synchronization problems. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and BBC and Today's Zaman (30-Mar-2014)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Oct-15 World View -- European Union nations in crisis agree on a migration plan for refugees thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Oct-2015)
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Illinois starts paying IOUs instead of lottery winnings
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Cold weather has not slowed the numbers of migrants, especially from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, as EU officials had hoped. A record 5,800 crossed from Macedonia into Serbia in one day this month. The flow of migrants seems to be increasing, out of fear that all the borders will soon be closed. Some 58,000 migrants arrived in Slovenia in the last week alone, overwhelming the country's resources. The danger that thousands of migrants will be trapped in the winter cold is increasing, as we described a few days ago. ( "20-Oct-15 World View -- As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold")
Three west Balkan countries, Bulgaria, Serbia and Romania, are threatening to close their borders completely. Bulgaria's Prime Minister Boiko Borisov announced:
"The three countries, we are standing ready, if Germany and Austria close their borders, not to allow our countries to become buffer zones. We will be ready to close borders."
European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker has called an extraordinary meeting of EU leaders, including leaders from Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia. According to Jüncker, "They will discuss urgently needed, common operative answers to the current humanitarian demands and decide on short-term measures."
German media have reported that Jüncker will present a 16-point plan, including an undertaking not to send migrants from one country to another without prior agreement. Other proposals in the plan are expected to be speeding up procedures to speed up asylum procedures and deportation for migrants.
It's also believed that there will be proposals for humanitarian aid for migrants trapped in the cold. Reuters and BBC and Reuters
The National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), which measures (inversely) the stability and health of the real estate markets, has increased every month since January 2014, meaning that the real estate markets are becoming less stable and less healthy, as they did in the mid-2000s decade, prior to the collapse of the housing bubble.
Some of the findings in the report by the American Enterprise Institute are:
According to the report:
"The typical first-time buyer today puts little money down and chooses a mortgage that pays off very slowly. This combination means that many first-time buyers are only one recession away from being significantly underwater."
I have my own painful memories of last housing bubble in the mid-2000s decade. There were some friends that I implored not to buy houses, but they did anyway. After the bubble burst, it was heartbreaking to seem them financially destroyed. It's going to happen again, and it won't be pleasant. American Enterprise Institute
You can still buy lottery tickets in Illinois, but don't count on winning much. Illinois announced last week that it won't pay out any lottery winnings above $600.
This is the second such announcement in three months. In August, Illinois announced that it wouldn't pay out any lottery winnings above $25,000.
The way lotteries are supposed to work is as follows: Lots of people buy tickets, and all that purchase money goes into a bank account. Then the lottery winners are paid out of the same bank account.
Apparently Illinois has decided to confiscate the purchase money.
These are the kinds of things that are impossible, can't possibly happen, until they happen. In recent years, Europe has confiscated some people's bank accounts in Greece and Cyprus. That was supposed to be impossible as well. That's why people in some countries avoid banks and hide their money under their mattresses. CNN Money and Fortune
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Oct-15 World View -- More EU countries threaten border closings, as refugee crisis worsens thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Oct-2015)
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Greece sets mortgage foreclosure 'red line' on new bailout negotiations
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Israel's Internal Security Ministry has eased some of its gun control laws to allow more people to purchase guns for self-defense, in view of the increasing violence by "lone wolf" Palestinians. At first they were mostly stabbing attacks, but recently ramming people with cars has been increasing.
The result has been long lines at gun shops and firing ranges. A gun costs between $730 and $1,170. Supplies of less lethal defenses, such as pepper spray or a club, have been sold out.
Uri David, an Israeli importer of Glocks, has seen a 50% increase in demand:
"Already last year, we saw an increase in sales during Protective Edge [last summer's 60-day Gaza war], mainly from people living in the south. Right now the demand is reaching levels never seen before. As an importer, it usually takes a while for new orders to starting coming in from dealers. This time I was surprised by how fast new orders started rolling in."
For years, new Israeli gun control laws have put additional obstacles in the way of getting a license to own a gun, with the result that gun ownership has decreased. It's estimated that Israelis own about 90,000 firearms, down from 350,000 in 1995. Haaretz and NPR
According to Adnan A'it, a leader in the West Bank terror group Tanzim, "no one has any control over what is happening" in regard to the growing violence in Jerusalem, and Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to blame:
"Things are getting worse, and will continue to get worse. ... No one but him is responsible for this situation. The Palestinian Authority does not have the resources to rule properly, and that makes Netanyahu responsible."
Tanzim is a militant group in the West Bank affiliated with Fatah, the armed wing of the Palestinian Authority (PA). It was formed by Fatah in 1995, and played a leading role in the second intifada, which began in 2000. The head of Tanzim is Marwan Barghouti, who is serving time in an Israeli jail for murder.
Tanzim is nominally under the control of PA president Mahmoud Abbas, but that control is eroding. Abbas is becoming increasingly irrelevant to Tanzim, just as Abbas is becoming increasingly irrelevant to the young people in the West Bank.
As I wrote recently in "18-Oct-15 World View -- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive", the young 15-20 year old kids in the Palestinian "Oslo generation" are increasingly contemptuous of Abbas, Hamas and other Palestinian leaders, and are taking out their increasing anger and frustration in the form of stabbing and ramming attacks against Israelis in Jerusalem and increasingly across the West Bank.
As I wrote in that article, there's a concept in generational theory of a "Grey Champion," a usually older person who emerges to lead the younger generation into war. Who that leader will be is not yet known, but the Tanzim terrorist organization is increasingly in a position either to provide that leader from its ranks or to endorse that leader, wherever he comes from.
For example, Jibril Rajoub, one of the leaders in Tanzim, is positioning himself to be that leader as a candidate to succeed Abbas. When the current wave of violence just started, Rajoub was still urging the Palestinian security forces to hold a dialogue with Israel. But now, this week, he changed his tune to a far more extreme position, encouraging the knife-wielding terrorists. This kind of rhetoric only serves to increase his popularity on the Palestinian street. Israel National News and YNet News and Al Monitor
Representatives of European lenders have been meeting with Greece's government in Athens to negotiate the terms for the next bailout money, totaling 86 billion euros. Greece must implement dozens of reforms by the middle of next week, before the Euro Working Group meets on Thursday, in order to get approval for the release of the first 2 billion euros of the new bailout.
The main sticking point in the current negotiations is said to be foreclosures on homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments. Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras has set a "red line" that any home valued at 200,000 euros or less be immune from foreclosure. According to Tsipras, turning the country into an "arena of confiscations" of homes was out of the question.
The European lenders want that limit to be 120,000. If too many non-performing loans are on the balance sheets of Greek banks, then it will be much more difficult to recapitalize the banks and make them healthy again.
Negotiations will continue over the weekend. Kathimerini and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Oct-15 World View -- Israelis line up to buy guns as Palestinian violence increases thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Oct-2015)
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Administration denies that combat use of American soldiers was 'mission creep'
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About 70 hostages in a prison compound held by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) were freed on Thursday in a joint commando raid by Kurdish Peshmerga militia forces and American combat troops, supported by four helicopters. One American soldier was killed.
According to the White House, the hostages faced "imminent mass execution":
"That operation was deliberately planned and launched after receiving information that the hostages faced imminent mass execution. It was authorized consistent with our counter-ISIL effort to train, advise and assist Iraqi forces."
Of the rescued hostages, more than 20 were Iraqi soldiers and the rest were civilians, with no Americans in the group. McClatchy and Rudaw (Iraq) and CBS
The use of American ground forces in Thursday's rescue operation appears to violate the administrations vow that American "boots on the ground" would not be involved in combat operations.
According to President Obama on June 19, 2014:
"We have had advisors in Iraq through our embassy, and we’re prepared to send a small number of additional American military advisors -- up to 300 -- to assess how we can best train, advise, and support Iraqi security forces going forward.American forces will not be returning to combat in Iraq, but we will help Iraqis as they take the fight to terrorists who threaten the Iraqi people, the region, and American interests as well."
Since then, the 300 military advisors have been increased, in step by step escalations, up to 3000 soldiers. However, the White House denies that Thursday's action is another escalation, or that it's "mission creep." According to a Pentagon spokesman:
"U.S. forces are not in an active combat mission in Iraq, and I can say that directly. ... This was a unique circumstance - a specific request from the Kurdistan regional government - and we acted. Thanks to the actions of not only the Iraqi forces involved here, but the U.S. forces, lives were saved."
There were several questions that went unanswered on Thursday. One was whether American forces would be used in combat in the future. The other was whether American forces have previously been used in combat, but it was kept secret because no American was killed. Administration officials refused to answer either question.
The situation in Iraq is very confused right now, since no one knows the plans of the Russians. There are Russian warplanes in Syria, and Iranian ground troops in Syria. The Iraqi government is reported to have request Russian warplanes in Iraq, although that hasn't been confirmed. It may turn out that Russian activity in Iraq will preclude any further American escalation. VOA and Foreign Policy and Daily Beast
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Oct-15 World View -- Joint US-Kurdish operation in Iraq rescues 70 hostages from ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Oct-2015)
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Implications of Pakistan's nuclear strategy for Iran and Saudi Arabia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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For the first time, Pakistan is declaring that it will develop tactical battlefield nuclear weapons, and that they're intended for use against India's conventional forces.
This is a historic strategic escalation for Pakistan, because it changes its nuclear strategy from "minimum credible deterrence" to "full spectrum deterrence."
In 1998, Pakistan conducted nuclear weapons tests, and declared itself to be a nuclear weapons state, with a strategy of "minimum credible deterrence" This effectively meant that Pakistan would not use its nuclear devices unless provoked to do so, which would only occur on a nuclear attack by India or a massive attack by conventional forces.
Pakistan's new nuclear missile is the Nasr (Hatf-9). There are two significant differences between the Nasr and other strategic nuclear missiles. The first difference is the short range -- only 60 km (37 miles). This range is too short to attack strategic targets within India, such as far-away cities or military bases. The second difference is the low yield, which makes them more powerful than artillery shells, but far below what most people think of as "weapons of mass destruction."
Thus, the Nasr missile is a nuclear weapon that could be used as an ordinary battlefield weapon against conventional forces.
According to Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhury, who on Tuesday announced the new strategy:
"Pakistan has built an infrastructure near border areas to launch a quickest response to Indian aggression... Usage of such low-yield nuclear weapons would make it difficult for India to launch a war against Pakistan."
The result is that Pakistan has now adopted a "full spectrum deterrence" nuclear strategy, which means that they are capable of deploying nuclear weapons in response to both large scale conventional attacks or small border incursions. In particular, the new Nasr missiles will be deployed near the borders with India, so that they can provide a quick response.
Chaudhury's statement contains an implied admission that Pakistan is unable to repel a conventional Indian military incursion with a conventional military counterattack, and so tactical nuclear weapons will be needed.
Analysts foresee a big danger in the use of tactical nuclear weapons by conventional forces. The problem is that if conventional forces are losing a battle, and a tactical nuclear weapon is available right there near the battlefield, then the tactical nuclear weapon will probably be used. The use of a tactical nuclear weapon could easily trigger the use of strategic nuclear weapons by the other side, meaning that the chances of all-out nuclear war are increased by the availability of tactical nuclear weapons.
In fact, India has said that even any nuclear attack, even a small one, on its forces would be treated as a strategic nuclear strike on India itself, and would meet an appropriate response. Pakistan Defence and Passive Voices (Pakistan) and Times of India
Pakistan's decision to change its nuclear strategy from "minimum credible deterrence" to "full spectrum deterrence" was triggered by an announced change in the use of conventional forces.
The particular issue is the Kashmir region, which has been disputed by Pakistan and India since the 1947 Partition war that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent and the creation of the states of Pakistan and India. The Kashmir region was a particularly bloody site of the war between Hindus and Muslims, and it's still disputed, with an internationally recognized Line of Control (LoC) separating the regions currently governed by Pakistan from those governed by India.
The problem for India is that whenever a Pakistani jihadist group crosses the LoC and conducts a terrorist attack on the Indian side, it takes a long time for India to deploy its army to respond.
So India has developed a "Cold Start" strategy. India will prepare army units, including attack helicopters and multiple rocket launchers with a 100 km range, to be able to respond immediately to a terrorist attack from Pakistani jihadists.
The Cold Start strategy goes farther than that. In addition to repelling the jihadist attack, the army unit will take control of a small piece of Pakistani territory, as a kind of retribution for the attack. The reasoning is that such a small army counterattack cannot be repulsed by Pakistan's smaller army, and will not trigger a nuclear response because of Pakistan's "minimum credible deterrence" strategy.
Pakistan's "full spectrum deterrence" strategy with tactical nuclear weapons is specifically targeting India's Cold Start strategy. A small Indian conventional military incursion can now be met with a tactical nuclear weapon.
It's worth pointing out that, although Cold Start has been discussed for years, it has never been deployed, and apparently no actions have been taken to deploy it in the near future. Arms Control Association and BBC
As I've been writing for years, nothing is going to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons -- not because of some obscure weaknesses in the recent nuclear deal with the West, but because Iran's population across all generations demands it. Iran has already been the target of weapons of mass destruction by Saddam Hussein, and Iran sees itself surrounded by nuclear states -- Pakistan, Russia and Israel. So Iran sees the need for a nuclear weapon capability as a requirement for self-defense.
However, Iran has no intention of preemptively using such weapons on Israel. Iran sees them in a purely defensive light.
Pakistan's new announcement will certainly inflame Iran's concerns about being surrounded by nuclear powers. If tactical nuclear weapons are going to become commonly intermingled with conventional forces near Pakistan's borders, then it's quite possible they will fall into the hands of jihadists, for use in Syria, Iraq or Yemen. It's also quite possible that Pakistan will supply these weapons to Saudi Arabia, as they have close military ties. All of these factors will make the Iranian people even more nervous, and demand the development of nuclear weapons, despite the nuclear agreement with the West.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Oct-15 World View -- In major strategic escalation, Pakistan will use tactical nuclear weapons against India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Oct-2015)
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Origins and Militarization of Sikhism
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With India's Punjab state "on the boil," India is deploying 10 companies, about 1000 soldiers, of paramilitary forces to several cities in Punjab province where Sikhs have been conducting large marches, to protest an acts of desecration against Sikhism's holy book, known as "Guru Granth Sahib."
There have been at least five reports of copies of the Guru Granth Sahib being torn up or otherwise desecrated, in various cities across Punjab.
In one case of vigilante justice, a man who had allegedly committed a sacrilege at a gurdwada (Sikh temple) was taken and beaten up by three youth.
In one district last Wednesday, hundreds of angry protesters confronted police, who opened fire, killing two protesters and wounding dozens of others. The killings have further angered Sikh community members who have taken to blocking highways and bridges, demanding action against those who they say desecrated the holy book.
The fear is that the violence will grow and ignite the pro-Khalistan movement. The Khalistan Liberation Force (KLF) is a militant separatist movement to create a Sikh nation called Khalistan.
In view of the situation, the games of World Kabaddi Cup scheduled to be held in Punjab from November 14 to 28 were cancelled. I knew nothing about Kabaddi before researching this article, but apparently it's a major sport played around the world, including in the US. There are no balls involved in the game. A player from one court has to tag an opponent in the other court, and then return to his home court, all the while without inhaling. I'm not kidding. The Hindu and India Times and BBC and How to play Kabaddi
Sikh males are often confused with Muslims because they wear turbans to cover their long hair. It's thought that this confusion led to the August 2012 terrorist attack on a Sikh temple in Wisconsin, killing seven people.
There are 23 million Sikhs worldwide, making Sikhism the 5th largest religion in the world, with 19 million Sikhs living in India, primarily in the state of Punjab.
The word "Sikhism" derives from "Sikh," which means a strong and able disciple. Sikhism emerged in 16th-century India in an environment heavily permeated with conflicts between the Hindu and Muslim religions. While Sikhism reflects its cultural context, having arisen out of Hinduism and Islam, it certainly developed into a movement unique in India. Sikhs regard their faith as an authentic new divine revelation.
In Hinduism and Buddhism, a Guru is a spiritual teacher. Sikhs follow the writings and teachings of the Ten Sikh Gurus. These teachings are collected in the Sikh holy book, the "Sri Guru Granth Sahib."
According to Guru Arjan Dev (1563-1606):
"I observe neither Hindu fasting nor the ritual of the Muslim Ramadan month; Him I serve who at the last shall save. The Lord of universe of the Hindus, Gosain and Allah to me are one; From Hindus and Muslims have I broken free. I perform neither Kaaba pilgrimage nor at bathing spots worship; One sole Lord I serve, and no other. I perform neither the Hindu worship nor the Muslim prayer; To the Sole Formless Lord in my heart I bow. We neither are Hindus nor Muslims; Our body and life belong to the One Supreme Being who alone is both Ram and Allah for us."
The founder of Sikhism, and the first of the Sikh Gurus, was Guru Nanak Dev (1469-1539), whose most famous saying is: "There is no Hindu, there is no Muslim, so whose path shall I follow? I shall follow the path of God." Sikhs.org
Sikhism emerged as a peaceful alternative to the wars between Hinduism and Islam, but the Sikh people are just as subject to generational crisis wars as any other group people.
By 1600, Sikhism was beginning to be seen as a threat to the state, and the last five Gurus began to militarize the Sikh community, so that they could resist oppression. Beginning in the early 1700s, the tenth Guru was followed by a series of military leaders, who captured more and more territory. In 1799, Sikh leader Ranjit Singh captured Lahore, and in 1801 established the Punjab as an independent state, with himself as Maharaja.
During the 1800s, troops of the British Empire defeated the Sikh armies, and took over much Sikh territory. The climax occurred in 1849, when the Sikhs were decisively beaten by the British.
British-Sikh relations were good until the Amritsar Massacre of 1919, when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest meeting, killing hundreds. Some historians regard the massacre as the event that began the decline of British control.
Much of the 1947 Partition war that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, one of the bloodiest wars of the last century, was fought in Punjab. The Sikhs had been hoping for their own state, but instead were forced to choose between Pakistan and India, and had to choose the latter. This was the Sikhs' last generational crisis war. (Paragraph added. 21-Oct)
Relations between Sikhs and Hindus have not always been peaceful. In 1983, some Sikh activists took refuge in the Golden Temple Complex at Amritsar, the most revered place in the Sikh world. In June 1984 Indian troops launched 'Operation Blue Star'. They attacked the Golden Temple Complex, killing many of those inside, and seriously damaging the buildings.
This infuriated the Sikhs. In October 1984, the world was shocked when India's prime minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two of her Sikh bodyguards. Four days of anti-Sikh rioting followed in India. The government said that more than 2,700 people, mostly Sikhs, were killed, while newspapers and human rights groups put the death toll between 10,000 and 17,000. BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Oct-15 World View -- India's Punjab state is 'on the boil' over violent Sikh protests thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Oct-2015)
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A cynical Turkey rejects Europe's 'concentration camp' refugee proposal
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As we reported yesterday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on Sunday, asking for help with the refugee problem. Merkel offered 3 billion euros in aid and promised to help Turkey join the European Union if Turkey could take steps to block the transfer of migrants leaving Turkey for Europe.
Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu spoke on TV on Monday, sounding offended:
"We cannot accept an understanding like ‘give us the money and Turkey is satisfied, so all migrants stay in Turkey.' I told this to Merkel, too. No one can accept Turkey becoming a country like a concentration camp where all refugees live. ...The 3 billion euro IPA fund proposal is no longer on the table as we have said we will not accept it. As for fresh resources, we're talking about a 3 billion euro amount in the first stage. But we don't want to fixate on this because the requirements may go up, and the assessment for this would need to be done annually."
Turkish editorial writers were quite cynical:
"Why such haste and panic? German chancellors hardly ever visit Turkey, despite the close relations between the two countries. Merkel usually shows a barely hidden displeasure to meet her Turkish counterparts and the German government is mostly displeased with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visiting Germany, addressing tens of thousands of supporters as if he were visiting a country of his own. Germany under Merkel's direction and her Christian Democratic Union party has an openly professed aim to never let Turkey enter the EU even in the hypothetical case Turkey fulfills all the conditions.No country in the EU's history, already rich in disagreeable behavior toward candidate countries, has been so insulted and rejected as Turkey has. The accession negotiations that began in October 2005 through incredible difficulties, were virtually suspended in eight months' time, arguing that Turkey was not abiding by the conditions of the Protocol signed previously. Greek Cyprus-flagged vessels and planes were banned in Turkish ports and airports. ... In fact, the move was an open step toward sabotaging a very promising accession negotiations process. As Nathalie Nougayrede wrote in The Guardian: 'EU accession negotiations stalled years ago, mostly because European public opinion could never accept the notion of engaging with such a large Muslim country.'"
German editorial writers were also cynical, claiming that the proposal wouldn't work anyway:
"But how that is meant to happen seems unclear, if you look at a map of the country. Turkey's border with Syria is 800 kilometers long and is just as difficult to monitor as the country's winding Aegean coast, which faces Greece. The idea of having transit camps, which only a certain number of refugees will be allowed to leave in the direction of Europe, is also impractical. Only a small percentage of the two million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, are living in camps along the border. Most of them are in the big Turkish cities, or they are trying to travel onwards. How are you going to bring them back to the camps? Are they going to be brought back by force?"
Europe is experiencing its greatest refugee crisis since World War II, and it looks like nothing is going to stop it. Today's Zaman (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Deutsche Welle
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With winter approaching, it had been thought that by this time the flow of migrants from the Mideast and Africa pouring into Europe would have slowed by now. Instead thousands of refugees are rushing to beat the winter. The number of arriving refugees has increased since the announcements by Hungary first that it would close the border to Serbia, and then the border to Croatia.
There are now about 6,000 migrants per day entering Europe from either the Mediterranean route -- smuggled into Italy by boat from Libya -- or from the Aegean Sea route -- smuggled into Greece by boat from Turkey.
During the warmth of the summer, migrants had been traveling through Serbia, through Hungary to Austria and on to Germany. After Hungary built a razor-wire fence along the border with Serbia, the stream of migrants were then diverted west, into Croatia. From Croatia they traveled north back into Hungary -- until Friday at midnight, when Hungary closed that border as well.
Now Croatia is diverting them further west, into Slovenia, so that they could travel north again, into Austria. The new problem is that there are about 5,000 migrants per day passing through Croatia, while Slovenia is refusing to admit more than 2,500 per day. Austria has also announced that it refuses to admit more than 1,500 per day.
So the immediate problem is that hundreds of migrants are stranded in "no-man's land." This refers to the strip of land between the Croatia border control and the Slovenia border control. Croatia has been letting the migrants cross over into the no-man's land, but Slovenia is refusing to let them go further. As a result, they're spending nights trapped, cold, wet and hungry, with little or no protection from the rain.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see where all this is going. With 6,000 migrants entering Europe each day, and various border controls letting only 2,000 or through each day, there are going to be many thousands of migrants stranded at different border controls. Temperatures are already plummeting, and as October leads into November, a lot of people's lives are going to be in danger from the cold.
It seems like a lifetime ago, but it was only in June that the European Union agreed to a plan to distribute up to 120,000 migrants to all 28 EU countries according to a quota system. That whole plan has been completely blown away, with over 700,000 migrants expected by the end of this year. The EU seems unable to deal with the crisis, but with winter approaching, something will have to be done. Reuters and NY Times and International Business Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Oct-15 World View -- As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Oct-2015)
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Zambia prays for divine intervention in copper prices
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By proclamation, Zambia declared Sunday to be a "National Day of Repentance, Fasting and Prayer," in the spirit of the "One Zambia, One Nation" motto, to pray for divine intervention to help the economy, especially to raise prices for the country's principal export, copper.
As we wrote three weeks ago in "30-Sep-15 World View -- Copper's crashing prices cause devastating economic ripples around the world", the collapse of copper prices in the last year has been a disaster for the African country Zambia, whose economy is heavily dependent on the price of copper. Glencore has announced plans to suspend operations in the country, which will result in the loss of thousands of jobs.
Swiss-based Glencore Plc, the world's third-largest copper miner, announced plans to suspend operations in the country, which will result in the loss of thousands of jobs in Zambia. Zambia's currency, the kwacha, has fallen 45% against the US dollar this year.
The copper crash is being mostly blamed on the slowdown in China's economy, along with the continuing strengthening of the US dollar currency. Both of these trends are likely to continue.
In announcing the day of repentance, fasting and prayer, Zambia's president Edgar Chagwa Lungu last month said:
"Anxiety and distress prevail throughout the land. Indeed, hope seems to have deserted the minds of the people. It is almost as if the wise counsel of the learned among us are not a match to the crisis before us."
Bishop Simon Chihana, president of the International Fellowship of Christian Churches in Zambia said on Sunday:
"God is a god of miracles and if we ask him, he will bless us and the kwacha shall be restored to its former strength and the prices of goods shall again go down. Let's pray to God to have mercy on us. God has done that before and he can do it again."
According to Zambia National Broadcasting, Zambia residents' hopes were raised with jubilation and shouting when a bright circle in rainbow colors appeared around the sun. Zambia Times and Telegraph (London) and Zambia National Broadcasting Company (ZNBC)
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How the worm has turned!!
Two years ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was harshly criticizing Turkey's Prime Minister (now President) Recep Tayyip Erdogan for ordering riot police to clear central Istanbul of thousands of peaceful protesters.
Only weeks ago, Erdogan was almost a pariah in Europe for his attacks on a free press and for bombing Kurds. There was no talk at all of Turkey joining the European Union, though there have been 12 years of negotiations on the subject.
But now Angela Merkel and a desperate European Union realize that they need Turkey more than Turkey needs them. Turkey has been transformed from pariah to partner.
On Sunday, Merkel visited Erdogan in Istanbul, and made these requests:
In exchange, Merkel is offering:
According to Merkel:
"I think we have used the crisis we are experiencing, through a very disorderly and uncontrolled movement of refugees, to achieve closer co-operation on many issues."
Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said:
"Our priority is to prevent illegal immigration and reduce the number of people crossing our border. In that respect we have had very fruitful negotiations with the EU."
It was all very nice and friendly but, as with all such meetings, it remains to be seen whether any of these hopes and requests will be implemented.
One Turkish diplomat said, "You can’t criticize Turkey from Monday to Friday and then on Saturday come and beg for support."
There's plenty of opposition in both countries. Many Germans, including many in her own party, fear that the severity of the refugee crisis may oblige Merkel to make a kind of "dirty deal" with Erdogan.
Opposition politicians in Turkey are complaining that Merkel is essentially endorsing Erdogan in the elections coming in two weeks, since she's visiting with Erdogan, but not with opposition candidates. Salmon River and Guardian (London, 21-June-2013) and Zaman (Turkey) and Independent (London) and Politico (EU)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Oct-15 World View -- Germany's Angela Merkel begs for refugee help from Turkey thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Oct-2015)
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Colorado's largest Obamacare health insurer declares bankruptcy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Colorado's biggest Obamacare health insurer announced on Friday that it was closing, and that its 83,000 Colorado customers, 40% of all the state's Obamacare customers, would have to find a new insurance agency and insurance plan for 2016.
The insurer reported a net loss of $23 million last year, and still owes $72.3 million that it had borrowed from a federal fund designed to bail out Obamacare entities at taxpayer expense.
This is now the seventh of the 23 Obamacare health insurance co-ops to go belly up. The others are Kentucky, Louisiana, Iowa/Nebraska, Nevada, New York and Tennessee, and more are expected before the end of the year, since a lot of the federal Obamacare money pots have run out of money.
I described these co-ops in my August article, "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history", which I posted after months of extensive research. Obamacare health insurance co-ops are almost unbelievably hare-brained Obamacare entities, in an Obamacare scheme that's riven with stupidity, corruption and criminality.
The co-ops were supposed to be non-profits that provided competition to the evil corporate insurance companies. So since they had lots of federal funding, they signed up lots of customers by charging ridiculously low prices for insurance, and running promotions like Colorado HealthOp's 2013 sexually suggestive promotion with the scantily clad girls shown in the photo above.
The result was that they got lots of customers, but had to pay out $1.10 to $1.60 in benefits for each dollar they received in insurance premiums. They could get away with this until they ran out of other people's money - in this case federal Obamacare slush funds.
Colorado HealthOP CEO Julia Hutchins was apoplectic about the situation, and blames it on the failure of the federal government to provide more money:
"We are astonished and disappointed by the Colorado Division of Insurance’s decision. It is both irresponsible and premature. Colorado HealthOP is a profitable start-up insurance company that is in a strong financial position and, for two years, has served the critical needs of Coloradans by enhancing competition in the Colorado insurance market, driving down prices in the state health insurance marketplace and offering new, innovative choices to its more than 80,000 members throughout Colorado."
The key is her claim about "driving down prices," which is why the co-op is going bankrupt -- by charging less money for premiums than it has to pay out in benefits.
After my months of research on Obamacare, I really don't believe Hutchins anyway. I'm fairly confident that further investigation would reveal that Hutchins doesn't give a sh-t about Colorado customers, but only cares about her 6-digit salary, which she'll lose when Colorado HealthOp goes down.
Meanwhile, health insurance premiums are expected to increase substantially for 2016, with 20-50% increases being fairly common. That's because, as usual, sick people are more likely to purchase health insurance than healthy people. Who would have expected that? AP and Colorado HealthOp press release and Minn NPR News and Zero Hedge
According to Israeli authorities, Palestinians carried out five separate stabbing attacks. According to Israeli Defense Forces, three of the attacks occurred in Hebron, one in Jerusalem and one in Qalandia. None of them were fatal, at least for the person stabbed; IDF said the Palestinian assailants in four of the five incidents were shot and killed. In at least one case, Palestinian reports claim that a 16-year-old boy was shot and killed by Israeli soldiers without provocation.
The Palestinian knife attacks are being called "lone wolf attacks," because it's not believed that they are organized in any way, or that they're being directed by any Palestinian leader. Israeli security officials are somewhat baffled about how to handle the knife attacks because, unlike suicide bomber vests, a knife can easily and openly be carried from place to place and wielded at a moment's notice. No matter how many soldiers Israel puts on the street, there no way to prevent a 14-18 year old Palestinian boy from stabbing an Israeli walking down the street. NBC News and Jerusalem Post and WAFA (Palestine News & Information Agency) and CNN
With Syria dominating the news, the Israeli-Palestinian issue has been getting less attention, with fewer and fewer headlines in recent months. But the atmosphere in Jerusalem and the West Bank has become increasing toxic and explosive, bringing it back to the headlines again.
Multiple analysts I've heard are all saying the same things. The Palestinian perpetrators of the knife attacks are young boys, 15-22, in what is being called the "Oslo generation," kids born after the 1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to bring peace to the Mideast, but are perceived as accomplishing nothing.
Analysts saying the same things about Oslo generation:
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I frequently distinguish between non-crisis wars, which come from the politicians, and crisis wars, which come from the people. It's crisis wars that are the most visceral, bloody and genocidal, since ordinary people are more visceral, more bloody, and more genocidal than politicians.
It's now clear that the young "Oslo generation" of Palestinians have no fear of another visceral, bloody, genocidal war, and have no respect for Abbas and other Palestinian leaders who want to prevent one.
The situation on the Israel side is not as clear, but it appears to be similar. Israel's population seems to be deeply divided between people who want to do everything possible to keep the violence from spiraling, and people, led by settlers, who openly talk about wiping out all the Palestinians.
When President George Bush announced his "Roadmap to Mideast Peace" in 2003, I wrote that the Mideast peace plan would not be implemented, because Israelis and Palestinians would be refighting the 1948 genocidal crisis war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. In that article, I said that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli leader Ariel Sharon hated each other but, consciously or unconsciously, they were cooperating to prevent an all-out war, because they both survived the bloody 1948 war and didn't want it to happen again. And I speculated that their deaths could trigger a new generational crisis war.
Arafat and Sharon have both been gone for several years.
Since 2006, there have been five Mideast wars, and they've all turned out to be non-crisis wars, with operations dictated by political leaders: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and July-August 2014.
Arafat was succeeded by Mahmoud Abbas, born 1935, another 1948 war survivor, who has done everything he could to prevent another genocidal war. Sharon was succeeded by Benjamin Netanyahu, born 1949, who was not a 1948 war survivor, but is old enough to be sufficiently aware of the war that he has also done everything possible to prevent another genocidal war. Palestinians and Israelis, for the most part, have been listening to Abbas and Netanyahu for years, and have resisted anything but low-level violence.
But now we're seeing a new situation that's drastically different from the past. Young people on the Palestinian side, and probably the Israeli side as well, are contemptuous of their political leaders and no longer willing to listen to them. This is exactly the kind of situation that can spiral into a visceral, bloody, genocidal crisis war.
However, there's one more piece missing. Even a generational crisis war that comes "from the people" still needs a leader.
There's a concept in foundational generational theory of the "Grey Champion," a usually older person who emerges to lead the younger generation into war. It's pretty clear that the Palestinian Grey Champion will not be Mahmoud Abbas, who is unalterably opposed to such a war. However, there are plenty of younger Palestinian leaders who, judging from public statements, would be only too happy to lead the Palestinians into war against Israel. A similar statement might be made on the Israeli side, but since it would be a defensive war for Israel, Netanyahu himself could become the war leader.
How long can things go on the way they are now? Days? Months? We can't say for sure. What we can say for sure is that the pressure inside the pressure cooker is increasing by leaps and bounds, and that at some point the pressure cooker will explode. The other thing that we can say for sure is that those on either side who are encouraging the explosion will either be killed in the war, or else will live to regret their encouragement.
There are many people who automatically assume that the current Israeli-Palestinian clashes will fizzle out before long. They believe this because that's what's always happened since 1949. These people don't understand how the world works, and this is why Generational Dynamics does work -- once the survivors of the previous visceral, bloody, genocidal war are gone, the generations that follow assume that it wasn't so bad, and anyway, it can't happen again. That's why they're always so shocked and surprised when it does happen again. Al-Jazeera
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Oct-15 World View -- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Oct-2015)
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Russian troops may take control of Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Two weeks ago we reported "29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia". Those repercussions are increasingly being felt in Tajikistan, the large Central Asian country along the northern border with Afghanistan, as Russia appears poised to send troops to take control of the border from Tajikistan soil.
Central Asian countries are increasingly concerned by the rise of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and its possible spread into southern and central Asia. Although some formerly al-Qaeda linked groups have switched their allegiance from al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, ISIS is not the principal threat in Afghanistan, Pakistan or Central Asia, as it has been in Syria and Iraq. Nonetheless, there seems to be a widespread fear that the growth of ISIS has energized all Sunni jihadist groups, including the Taliban and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Russia estimates that there are about 3,000 ISIS fighters and about 30,000 Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.
In a statement on Friday, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon expressed concern about the rise of ISIS in the region, and called on former Soviet republics to step up their cooperation against ISIS:
"Taking into account the unstable situation in the world, aggravating regional conflicts in the world, we have an opportunity to discuss these problems and find solutions, including regarding the fight against the Islamic State and other international terrorist organizations, in the Commonwealth."
Russia had a special unit of border guards at the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border between 1992 and 2005 and repeatedly repelled attacks by Taliban forces. Russia has a military base in Tajikistan, but its servicemen do not participate in protecting the country’s borders. Russia Today and Reuters and Belarus News
European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Friday have agreed to ease visa restrictions for Turkish citizens and accelerate negotiations over Turkey's membership in the EU in exchange for Turkey's help in slowing the flow of migrants from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan traveling through Turkey to reach the EU.
Turkey has requested 3 billion euros in funding to help the country deal with the migration crisis. This was not part of the Brussels agreement, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that it would be considered.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu was harshly critical of the offer, calling it "unacceptable" and "insignificant." According to Sinirlioglu:
There is a financial package proposed by the EU and we told them it is unacceptable. ...If (the EU) delivers 3 billion euros ($3.4bn) in the initial phase, it would be meaningful. We (Turkey) have spent $8 billion (on refugees) and our gross national product is around $800 billion. Their (GNP) is $18 trillion.
Three billion euro versus $18 trillion (GNP) is comic but it is much better than the $500 million that they had delivered."
Sinirlioglu rejected any "bargaining" with the EU, saying: "The aid to be delivered will not be for Turkey but to support Syrians in desperation."
Merkel will visit Erdogan in Istanbul over the weekend to discuss the refugee crisis. Irish Times and Reuters and Al-Jazeera
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In another blow to the European Union's prized open-border Schengen Agreement, Hungary closed the border with Croatia on Friday at midnight.
The flood of migrants from Turkey into Europe with Germany as a desired destination has not slowed appreciably with the approach of winter. In fact, the flood has increased considerably in the last few days, as word spread that there was little time left to reach Croatia before Hungary closes the border.
Migrants have been arriving in the islands of Greece in the Aegean Sea, where a Greek ferry transports them to the mainland. From there they travely to Macedonia, then north through Serbia. They used to continue on through Hungary to Austria and Germany, but Hungary closed the border with Serbia several weeks ago. Since then, they turned westward and traveled through Croatia and then into either Hungary or Slovenia. Now, with Hungary's closure of the border with Croatia, they all be directed to travel through Slovenia.
Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán criticized the agreements being made in Brussels as inadequate, because it did nothing to stop the flow of migrants from Greece. According to Orbán:
"The agreement with Turkey has not been finalized yet, but we have given the mandate to complete the task. Until then, however, the Greek border should have been closed, which would bring relief to Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary and Croatia. However, there is no power, determination and political will to do that."
A group of several hundred migrants who arrived minutes before the Friday midnight deadline were the last to be allowed through. It is now Slovenia's turn to fear being overwhelmed by migrants. Portfolio (Hungary) and Total Croatia News and BBC
According to a September 28 YouGov poll, 40% of Britons now say they want to leave the European Union ("Brexit") versus 38% who say that they want to stay. The UK will hold a referendum on Brexit some time in the next two years. There are two major issues that have substantially boosted the pro-Brexit vote.
One issue has to do with the flood of migrants arriving in Europe, but that's not the principal reason.
The principal reason has to do with Greece's financial crisis. The crisis in Greece itself is also not the main issue on U.K. voters' minds, but rather how Athens was treated by Germany and the rest of the euro zone that has struck home. The negotiations painted the EU and its biggest economic power as controlling and unforgiving.
What both issues have in common is the sovereignty. Britain's prime minister David Cameron says that he is in favor of Britain remaining in the EU, but only if there are some changes. Cameron has listed four main issues:
The polls show that the British voters are changing their minds, and may be deciding that whether or not the EU needs Britain, Britain no longer needs the European Union. Market Watch and CNBC
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday took note of the fact that Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel was on the list to receive the Nobel Peace Prize:
"Someone comes out and says they’ll accept 30,000, 40,000 refugees and they’re shown as a candidate for the Nobel Prize somehow. We’ve got 2.5 million refugees and nobody cares."
Actually, hundreds of thousands of refugees are expected to arrive in Germany this year.
Merkel will visit Erdogan in Istanbul over the weekend to plead for Turkey's help is slowing the flow of migrants from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan traveling through Turkey to reach the EU.
According to Erdogan on Friday: "If it can’t be done without Turkey, then why don’t you let Turkey into the European Union?"
Merkel's visit is thought to be somewhat desperate because it violates some rules. There's an election in Turkey in the next two weeks, and Merkel's visit will appear to be an endorsement of Erdogan. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Oct-15 World View -- Refugee crisis: Turkey ridicules Europe as Hungary closes Croatia border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Oct-2015)
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President Obama reverses himself on Afghanistan troop withdrawal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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President Barack Obama has done an about-face on the issue of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, and now says that he will leave a force of 5,500 soldiers in Afghanistan on a continuing basis, "to focus on training Afghans and counterterrorism operations."
According to several analysts, Obama was forced into this by the surprise victory of the Taliban in capturing the city of Kunduz in norther Afghanistan, near the border with Tajikistan. ( "29-Sep-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia")
In his speech, Obama said:
"As you are well aware, I do not support the idea of endless war, and I have repeatedly argued against marching into open-ended military conflicts that do not serve our core security interests."
This is indeed Obama's philosophy, but it completely disregards America's values and America's role in the world. It's like saying that New York City shouldn't have a police force since crime is endless. The role of the police is to protect the city from crime when it occurs. If you withdraw the police from New York City, then crime will be even more rampant than it is now.
I've written many times about the Truman Doctrine, from President Harry Truman in 1947, which made America policeman of the world. The justification is that it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John Kennedy's "ask not" speech, and every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman.
Obama's repudiation of the Truman Doctrine has been a disaster for the world, since the world no longer has a policeman. This is the concept that Obama completely fails to grasp, which is why the Obama administration has suffered one foreign policy disaster after another. Now, with Afghanistan in crisis, the administration is heading into a new disaster. White House and Washington Post
In 2007, Senator Barack Obama was extremely contemptuous of the Iraq war and President George Bush's "surge" strategy for ending it. The irony is that after Bush's surge strategy was successful, and Obama was elected president, Obama's Afghan war strategy was modeled after Bush's successful "surge" strategy in Iraq, something that Senator Obama bitterly opposed before it turned out to be successful.
However, as I wrote in a Generational Dynamics analysis in 2009 in "American army general warns of imminent defeat in Afghanistan war," the Iraq "surge" strategy would not work in Afghanistan.
The Iraq situation was as follows: Iraq's previous generational crisis war was the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, in which all Sunni and Shia Iraqis united against the common enemy, Iran. In 2007, I wrote "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)" (the best analysis of the Iraq war available anywhere at that time), where I explained that AQI consisted of mostly Jordanian and Saudi terrorists, but that Iraqis were only marginally involved and were happy to get rid of these foreign terrorists.
But Afghanistan was quite different. Its previous generational crisis war was the Afghan civil war from 1991 to 1996. There was no united country for the "surge" to appeal to. Even worse, the Taliban terrorists were from the same Pashtun ethnic group that was conducting terrorist acts in Pakistan. In Iraq, the Jordanian and Saudi terrorists were foreigners, but in Afghanistan, the Pashtun terrorists were not.
The result is that the "surge" strategy could never work in Afghanistan and, in fact, no strategy could work in Afghanistan as well as the surge strategy had worked in Iraq.
It's been rumored for several months that the US Navy plans to send a vessel into the South China Sea close to the man-made island chain that China has been building, apparently to provide a platform for a large military base. Now reports indicate that approval of the plan may be imminent.
China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries, and continues and uses belligerent military operations to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.
To support its military activities, China has used land reclamation projects to build a chain of man-made islands in international waters around the Spratley Islands. The US Navy plan is simply to send a ship within 12 miles of China's man-made islands, in order to establish the principle that these are international waters.
Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has not commented on the specific plan, but said generally: "United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."
Chinese state media claims that "The US must have known that China's reclamation work does not contravene international law, so Washington has no sufficient reason to stop China." However, the US Navy is not saying anything about trying to "stop China." All the US Navy plans is to send a vessel near the islands through international waters.
According to China state media:
"Washington's ceaseless provocations and coercion can only demonstrate that it does not intend to protect freedom of navigation in this region, as China has clearly stated that the right will not be impeded. What the US wants is to play rough against China and stress its hegemony.In this case, China mustn't tolerate rampant US violations of China's adjacent waters and the skies over these expanding islands. The Chinese military should be ready to launch countermeasures according to Washington's level of provocation.
The US must have known that China's reclamation work does not contravene international law, so Washington has no sufficient reason to stop China. Despite the legitimacy of China's construction work and the public good it can provide, if the US adopts an aggressive approach, it will be a breach of China's bottom line, and China will not sit idly by.
China has remained calm with self-restraint even in the face of Washington's escalating provocations, but if the US encroaches on China's core interests, the Chinese military will stand up and use force to stop it."
And so, unless either the US or China backs down, there will be a military confrontation. I do not think that China will back down, but it's quite possible that the Obama administration will back down. Military Times (7-Oct) and Navy Times and Global Times (Beijing)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Oct-15 World View -- China and US poised for South China Sea military confrontation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Oct-2015)
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Burma's brutal problems with the Rohingya and Kokang continue
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Thursday, Myanmar's government will sign a peace agreement with some of its armed ethnic groups. The agreement has been under negotiation since 2011.
However, Myanmar's government failed to convince all 15 of its armed ethnic groups to sign the peace agreement. Instead, only seven of the ethnic armies will sign the agreement on Thursday, in a lavish signing ceremony in Naypyitaw, the nation's capital city, to be attended by foreign diplomats. However, eight of ethnic armies have refused to sign.
Even though the peace agreement is clearly flawed, it's being touted with the usual political rhetoric of "bringing hope" that the entire country will soon be "at peace."
Among those that will be signing is the Karen National Union (KNU), Myanmar's oldest armed group. The KNU has fought one of the world's longest running conflicts with the Myanmar military spanning nearly 70 years. The KNU said in a statement that it hoped the ceasefire would bring, "the termination of civil war and the building of genuine peace."
Two other ethnic armies, the Shan and the Kachin, are still fighting Myanmar's army, and do not wish to engage in a peace process.
The failure to include all 15 ethnic armies is a blow to President Thein Sein, who had made a nationwide ceasefire a key promise after taking power in 2011. He had wanted the nationwide ceasefire to be in place prior to the next election, to be held next month on November 8. Reuters and Bangkok Post
This is not the first ceasefire agreement that the government has signed. In fact, according to the International Crisis Group, Burma started signing peace agreements with ethnic armies in 1989, as an intended process of national reconciliation, after the civil war of the 1950s. Needless to say, some of these peace agreements didn't last long, and sometimes the same ethnic army had to sign peace agreements more than once.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this situation with multiple peace agreements is a complex example of something that I've discussed a number of times before with respect to other countries.
Among generational crisis wars, an external war is fundamentally different than an internal civil war between two ethnic groups. If two ethnic groups have lived together in peace for decades, have intermarried and worked together, and then there's a civil war where one of these ethnic groups tortures, massacres and slaughters their next-door neighbors in the other ethnic group, then the outcome will be fundamentally different than if the same torture and slaughter is rendered by an external group. In either case, the country will spend the Recovery Era setting up rules and institutions designed to prevent any such war from occurring again. But in one case, the country will enter the Awakening era unified, except for generational political differences, and in the other case, the country will be increasingly torn along the same ethnic fault line.
One path that the Recovery Era can take is that the leader of one ethnic group decides that the only way to prevent a new civil war is for him to stay in power, and to respond to peaceful anti-government demonstrations by conducting massive bloody genocide, torture and slaughter of the other ethnic group, in order to maintain the peace. (I assume, Dear Reader, that you've grasped the irony of the last sentence.) That appears to be what Robert Mugabe has been doing in Zimbabwe, what Bashar al-Assad has been doing in Syria, and what Pierre Nkurunziza has begun to do in Burundi.
When there's a generational crisis civil war between two ethnic groups, the groups stop fighting with each other out of exhaustion when the war ends with a climax, and the country enters a Recovery Era. Starting around 20 years later, the younger generations that grew up after the war begin to make themselves felt, and they begin clashing with each other or with the government out of anger left over from the civil war. This has been happening for several years now in Thailand, in clashes between the "yellow shirt" Chinese descendants and the "red shirt" indigenous Thais. What happens is that each clash ends with some kind of peace arrangement that lasts until the next clash begins. This alternation between clashes and peace continues for decades, with each clash worse than the previous one, until there's a new full-scale crisis civil war decades later.
So all this is going on in Burma (Myanmar) as well. Burma's last generational crisis wars (1948-58) was extremely bloody and violent, involving multiple civil wars between ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter" from 2007, for a generational history of Burma.)
So instead of just two ethnic groups alternating between clashes and peace agreements, Burma has multiple peace agreements with different ethnic armies, leading to an extremely complex set of interlocking situations.
The hope that the current round of peace agreements will lead to a permanent national peace is a vain hope. Actually, just the opposite is happening. For each of the ethnic armies signing the agreement, this is just one temporary peace agreement until the next clash begins. This can go on for decades, with each clash worse than the previous one, until a new full-scale crisis civil war begins. International Crisis Group
In addition to an ongoing conflict in Kachin and Shan states, Burma (Myanmar) has continuing problems with Rohingya and Kokang.
We've reported several times earlier this year of the plight of the 6,000-8,000 Rohingya migrants who were stranded in vastly overcrowded boats in the Andaman Sea off the coast of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar (Burma) had lived there for generations are being slaughtered and driven from their homes by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. The Rohingyas, described by the United Nations as "the most persecuted ethnic group in the world," are not even recognized as Rohingyas by Burma's government, who refer to them as Bangladeshis. Because of the Buddhist violence, they've been fleeing Burma into the Bay of Bengal in small boats, heading south and hoping to land in Thailand, Indonesia or Malaysia. Instead, these countries refuse to let them land on their soil, and they're stranded at sea.
For the past fifty years, under successive military juntas, Myanmar has followed a strategic project of Burmanization, i.e. the promotion of a single religion (Buddhism), language (Burmese) and culture (Burman). At its mildest, this is a policy of cultural assimilation. At its worst, it has verged on – and arguably pursued – ethnic cleansing - of the Rohingyas, and other ethnic minorities.
We reported earlier this year that Burma's president Thein Sein on Tuesday had to a state of emergency and imposed martial law in the Kokang Special Region of Burma, on the border with China. ( "20-Feb-15 World View -- Ethnic Chinese Kokang burst into violence in northern Burma (Myanmar)")
The Kokang people are ethnic Chinese who even use a Chinese phone network and spend Chinese money in this region. In 1989, Burma's government signed a peace agreement with the Kokang, but there's been fighting five times since then. In 2009, an anti-drug crackdown by Burma's army forced 30,000 Kokang to flee across the border into China, where they were put into refugee camps.
February's clashes have mostly ended, and there's a tense peace prevailing in the Kokang Special Region. The Diplomat and The Nation (Thailand) and Frontier Myanmar
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Oct-15 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Oct-2015)
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This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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We actually already know that Russians in East Ukraine shot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17 when it was flying overhead last year in July 2014. The way we know is that immediately after the MH17 airliner was shot down last year, Igor Strelkov, the commander of the Russian invasion forces in east Ukraine, tweeted the following to brag about the kill:
"We shot down AN-26 [military transport] near the city Torez, Donetsk People's Republic ... We warned, don't fly in our sky."
Later, when Strelkov learned that he had shot down a passenger plane, not a military plane, the tweet was taken down, but by then it was too late. Strelkov had already admitted about shooting down the plane -- actually bragged about it.
Tuesday's report by the Dutch Safety Board did not assign blame to the Russians because they were not allowed to do so. However, the current report concludes that the MH17 was shot down by a Russian-built Buk surface-to-air missile system launched from the region of East Ukraine occupied by Russian separatists.
The destruction of flight MH17 is one of the worst air disasters for decades. The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well above the range of any ordinary ground-to-air missiles. An extremely sophisticated missile like the Buk was required to strike a plane flying at that altitude. The Safety Board researchers firmly identified the Buk missile from painted missile fragments embedded in the bodies of the passengers and crew. There were 298 mostly Dutch passengers and crew on board, including many women and children, when MH17 was shot out of the sky.
There is a further forensic investigation in progress by Dutch prosecutors to identify the perpetrators and bring them to justice -- something that the Russians will certainly not permit. That report is due early next year. Reuters and NBC News
In the months after flight MH17 was shot out of the sky, the Russians issued one alternative explanation after another, including the following:
The investigation by the Dutch Safety Board has determined that MH17 was shot down by a Russian-built Buk missile, eliminating all the above explanations.
So recently the Russians have been offering a brand-new excuse: Yes, it was a Buk missile, but it was an old style Buk missile that Russia doesn't use any more, but which Ukraine has in its inventory.
Whether this brand new excuse will stand up to further investigation remains to be seen, but what we can be sure of is that the Russians will revive their massive disinformation campaign, led by Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
Let's recall what happened last year with the Russian invasion of Ukraine:
In addition to all that, we can expect a major resurgence of Putin's army of paid Russian internet trolls, whose job was to harass people like me who describe what was really going on. I've had the honor of being targeted by no less than three of the trolls on different web sites in one week, and I've had frequent attacks by Russian trolls since then.
As the Roman lawyers would say, "Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus" (false in one thing, false in everything).
So whatever excuse or explanation the Russians supply for why a Russian-built Buk missile blew a passenger airplane out of the sky, you can be sure that it's a lie, particularly since we already know from Igor Strelkov's first tweet bragging about the strike: "We warned, don't fly in our sky." Russia Today and BBC
We've been reporting deadly violence by Palestinian youth targeting Israelis in Jerusalem, and it continues to grow, with Tuesday being the worst day of violence since the start of the current escalation in tensions.
Two Palestinians armed with a knife and a gun killed two Israelis and injuring three more on a Jerusalem bus. Almost simultaneously, an assailant rammed a car at speed into a bus stop before stabbing bystanders, killing one and injuring two others.
These are being referred to as "lone wolf attacks" (as opposed to a "third intifada"), because there is no support from Palestinian Authority officials or organized militias.
The lone wolf attacks are being perpetrated by youth in their teens or early twenties, the so-called "Oslo generation," because they grew up after the 1993 Oslo accords, and saw that nothing had changed.
There were violent clashes in Bethlehem. Some 20,000 Israeli Arabs protested against the policies of Israel's government in the northern city of Sakhnin. Some rocks were thrown at Israeli soldiers, but the protests were otherwise peaceful. Guardian (London) and Arab News (Riyadh) and Middle East Eye
If you have an Android phone or tablet, then try out the two apps that I developed:
"Xenakis Professional Debt Calculator," a sophisticated financial application. The app implements the Federal Reserve Truth in Lending Law (Regulation Z) to analyze complex debt transactions. This app is not fully implemented yet.
"Xenakis MathGame," which tests math skills by presenting graded math problems. Warning: If you like math then you'll like this game, but if you don't like math then you'll hate this game.
These apps are free, no ads, no problems. I developed them for fun, and to learn new skills. Let me know how you like them, and to suggest improvements. http://www.prodebtcalc.com
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Oct-15 World View -- Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Oct-2015)
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Turkey blames ISIS for Saturday's massacre as anti-government anger grows
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Turkey is in a state of shock over Saturday's massive terrorist attack at a "peace rally" in the capital city Ankara that killed 97 people and injured hundreds more. It's being referred to as the worst terrorist massacre in Turkey's history, or as "Turkey's 9/11."
Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Monday named the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) as the principal suspect in the massacre. According to Davutoglu:
"From the first moment on, we have viewed Daesh [ISIS] as being responsible, considering how the incident happened."
Well, that isn't exactly true. From the first moment on, Davutoglu actually said that he viewed ISIS to be one of four possible perpetrators, the principal other one being the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). And this claim infuriated Kurds, since the "peace rally" was a gathering of Kurdish activists. ( "11-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey's terror attack triggers vitriolic political finger-pointing")
Instead of unifying Turkey's people behind the government to find the perpetrators, the Turkish people are becoming more polarized, frustrated and angry, with many people blaming the government of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Those who blame the government split into several categories:
Today's Zaman (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Today's Zaman
Four or five years ago, Turkey appeared to be a pillar of strength, with enormous influence throughout the Mideast. There had been occasional terrorist attacks by the PKK, but even that seemed a thing of the past when Turkey's government and the PKK agreed to a ceasefire and a "peace process" in 2013.
However, things changed abruptly, following the July 20 terrorist attack in the city of attack on Suruç killing 33 people, mostly young pro-Kurdish activists. After that, the ceasefire agreement broke down, and Erdogan declared war on the PKK. ( "9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country")
Turkey has been suffering a spiral of violence. Saturday's terrorist attack took place in Ankara, near government buildings, presumably the safest place in Turkey. People are wondering where the terrorists will strike next. The economy is suffering, tourism is falling, and the lira currency is losing value.
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its parliamentary majority in the June 7 parliamentary election for the first time since 2002, after the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) got 12% of the vote, surpassing a 10% threshold for the first time, giving the party a significant representation in the parliament.
In a move that now appears to be ill-fated, Erdogan called for new parliamentary elections on November 1, hoping to regain the seats that his party had lost to the Kurds. However, polls indicate that the HDP may actually do better on November 1 than it did on June 7, and there are concerns that the splintered government will not be able to govern effectively.
There are fears that the polarization between the government and the PKK will turn into a civil war. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Monday, "These attacks won't turn Turkey into a Syria," but that's exactly what many people are afraid of. CBS News and Today's Zaman
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey is seen as increasingly unstable after Ankara massacre thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Oct-2015)
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Garry Kasparov's analysis of Vladimir Putin's strategy in Syria
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Two people were arrested on Saturday after Hindu demonstrators protesting cow slaughter set police jeeps on fire and damaged several other vehicles, following the allegation of a Muslim slaughtering a cow in the village of Mainpuri in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh.
In another incident in Uttar Pradesh, a mob of 500 people armed with bambo sticks and iron rods thrashed two Muslims suspected of slaughtering a cow and set fire to some dozen Muslim-owned shops, before police dispersed the mob using tear gas.
Two weeks ago, a Muslim in the nearby village of Dadri was lynched by a Hindu mob on allegations that he ate beef.
The cow is considered a sacred animal in the Hindu religion, and eating beef is forbidden. Not surprisingly, this means that cow slaughter is one more reason for conflict between Muslims and Hindus, and has been for centuries.
According to one analyst:
"Cows are not slaughtered across the Islamic world, but the reason cows are slaughtered mostly in the Indian Subcontinent is because Indian Islamists introduced the practice of cow slaughter here as a challenge to the Hindu religious practice of worshiping cows."
Cow slaughter is illegal in many parts of India, and so Muslims eating beef can be subject to arrest, or the target of protests by Hindus.
Cow slaughter has also spread to Pakistan, for a similar reason, according to another analyst:
"In the current areas [that constitute] Pakistan, cows were not sacrificed in large numbers [before Pakistan was created in 1947]. When the Mohajirs [Indian Muslim immigrants] came to Pakistan after the Partition, they also brought the tradition of cow slaughter along with them. It was under the impact of the immigrant Islamic organizations such as Jamaat-e-Islami and the people arriving from there [i.e. from the regions that remained a part of India]... that a tradition of sacrificing the cow became strong..."
New Delhi Television and MEMRI and AFP and MEMRI
The rioting and lynching described above occurred in villages near New Delhi in India's northern state of Uttar Pradesh (UP).
In 2015, the number of cases under the law prohibiting cow slaughter has doubled this year from 2011. Hindu activists have been campaigning against "illegal slaughter houses," especially in western UP. "We have got illegal slaughter houses in eastern UP closed, but there are several functioning in the west. Beef is easily available in cities like Aligarh and Meerut. Our activists have already been told to keep an eye. Recently, they stopped a vehicle of animal traffickers in Ghaziabad."
According to another Hindu activist:
"We have a goal of getting cow slaughter banned and getting cow the status of national animal. Our followers paint slogans to make people aware of the atrocities on cow. One slogan is kati gai kare pukaar, bandh karo yeh atyachar (cows being slaughtered plead an end to this atrocity). Another is Modiji vaada nibhao, gau mata ki jaan bachao (Modiji [Indian prime minister Narendra Modi], fulfil your promise, save the life of mother cow).There is renewed faith in our campaign, so a large number of people are getting attached. This is the first time that everyone is talking about it. ...
We are not in favour of using force [as happened in Dadri]. Those who eat meat have bad habits like infants who eat soil. We have to help them get rid of this habit with persuasion, not by beating them or beating ourselves."
Although cow slaughter is an issue in other parts of India, the issue in Uttar Pradesh may be serving as a proxy for anger against the government, in an India state that's desperately poor with a government that desperately corrupt.
As an example, the Uttar Pradesh government placed an advertisement for 368 jobs as peons -- low-level jobs such as serving tea. A staggering 2.32 million applied for these 368 jobs, including 25,000 applicants that had Masters degrees. Indian Express and Hindustan Times
Those who, like me, have been into chess in the past are familiar with the name Garry Kasparov as a former world chess champion during the days of the Soviet Union. In recent years, Kasparov has become highly visible political opponent of Russia's president Vladimir Putin. He appeared Paul Gigot's Wall Street Journal report on Fox News, and gave his analysis of Putin's strategy in Syria.
He said that Putin had expected east Ukraine to be an easy victory, but it turned out to be much harder than expected because there were too many Russians in Ukraine who sided with the Ukraine government:
"Ukraine proved to be much tougher than he expected. He thought ethnic Russians in southeast Ukraine would embrace Russian gangs. ... Most of them subscribe to Ukraine army and we saw in east Ukraine was more or less a civil war between pro-European Russians that made the majority between the army and Putin force. So too much for Putin to push forward."
Rather than continue with Ukraine, Putin saw a vacuum in Syria that Russia could fill:
"[O]ne of the side effects of Putin's attacks in Syria and his support for Bashar al Assad, of his regime, is a way for refugees. There are hundreds of thousands, now, potentially, millions of refugees fleeing into Europe. ... With more refugees there, you can see the ultra-right wing Nationalist parties gaining ground, and they are all allies of Vladimir Putin and eventually, when in March of 2016, the E.U. has to decide on sort of sanctions, whether to prolong them or to leave them, Putin expects the allies in Europe will help him to get rid of sanctions."
So, Putin hopes to use the millions of refugees to blackmail Europe into lifting sanctions. But there's a second objective in Syria as well:
"But also there's still hopes that Russian presence there and combine assault with Russian, Iranians, Assad forces could create sort of a major war in the Middle East. Because for Putin to influence oil prices which are vital for [Russia's economy]. ... He must put oil prices up because with $50 a barrel, maybe for two years, but Russian economy will go [down]. ...Dictators, strong, successful dictators, they do not play games. It's all about survival. Putin thinks one or maximum two moves ahead. 'I have to survive today. I have to win this battle. We'll see what happens the next day.'
That's why he needs instability because in the situation in which instable, without rules, so he always dominated the game because he doesn't have to go to Congress, the parliament, he doesn't care about public opinions. He has an advantage of moving swiftly."
I've written several times that Putin's actions in Syria are insane because they're going to trigger a war. According to Kasparov, Putin actually wants to trigger "some sort of major war in the Mideast," in order to cause oil prices to rise, saving Russia's economy.
To summarize, Putin's actions in Syria have two objectives, according to Kasparov: Create millions more Syria refugees in order to weaken Europe; and trigger a major war to raise oil prices.
Putin undoubted believes that any war that Russia triggers can be contained, just as previous Mideast wars have been contained. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what Putin doesn't understand is that as the world goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, as the few remaining survivors of World War II die off, as the horrors of WW II are no longer remembered, the chances of "containing" a new Mideast war become smaller and smaller. The next Mideast war could finally be the one that isn't "contained."
Kasparov concluded that Putin may not stop with Syria. Putin perceives Obama as being very weak, and knows that the next administration could be very different, so he'll "try to gain maximum ground as long as Obama is in office."
Putin's next move could be in another direction:
"I would watch another destination. Look at Putin's preferences, oil, deep water ports, chaos, instability, Benghazi. ... The way Putin thinks, I think Benghazi [Libya] is probably one of the spots on the map that is just bringing his attention."
Once again, there would be two objectives in intervening in Libya: Take control of Libya's oil exports, and generate another flow of refugees into Europe. Fox News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Oct-15 World View -- India Hindus attack Muslims as cow slaughter incidents surge thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Oct-2015)
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Attack in Ankara is called the worst in Turkey's history
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Almost 100 people were killed, and hundreds more injured, from two terrorist explosions at a "peace" rally Turkey's capital city Ankara on Saturday. No one has claimed responsibility, but it's believed that the explosions came from two suicide bombers.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu declared a three-day national mourning period, and named four outlawed organizations that may have been responsible for the attack:
The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, lost seats in the June 7 parliamentary election, stripping it of its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002, and forcing it to govern in a coalition. Erdogan called a new election for November 1, in the hope of regaining the majority, but polls indicate that he won't succeed. Today's Zaman (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey)
Leaders of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) are bitterly blaming the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Saturday's terror attack in Ankara.
Selahattin Demirtas, co-head of the HDP, says that whether Erdogan personally ordered the attack or not, the government security forces were responsible, and links this attack to the scheduled elections on November 1.
On June 5, two days before the general elections, four people died in a twin bomb attack on a HDP rally in Diyarbakir. Then, on July 20, a terrorist attack blamed on ISIS in the city of attack on Suruç killed 33 people, mostly young pro-Kurdish activists. After that, Turkey's government declared war on the PKK. ( "9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country")
According to Demirtas, the Erdogan government has made no attempt to find the perpetrators of those two previous terror attacks. He is particularly critical of statements by Davutoglu and Erdogan suggesting that the PKK was responsible for Saturday's attack or the two previous ones.
"There is nobody who has been designated as ‘responsible’ around. There is no effective investigation. There will be none regarding today's attack either. This is not an attack against unity of our state and nation. This is an attack by our nation against our people. ...That is to say that they are very pleased. They are pleased of the current picture. This is not an attack against unity of our state and the nation. This is an attack by our state against our people. ...
There are AKP executives who have openly said that we have bombed ourselves. We are a party who defend living together, but there is no place to such treacherous ones like you in that life together."
For the most part, Turkey's opposition parties are supporting the Erdogan government's attempts to unify the country in the face of these terrorist bombings, but HDP is the exception. Prime minister Davutoglu has already said that he wants to consult with opposition parties, but he's refusing any contact with HDP officials after Demirtas's statement slamming the government for the attack.
Turkey's politics between nationalist politicians led by Erdogan and left-wing Kurdish politicians have already become extremely vitriolic, particularly since the attack on Suruç and Erdogan's declaration of war on the PKK.
The rapidly escalating conflict between PKK terrorists and Turkish security forces has triggered violence across Turkey. A number of anti-terror marches in Turkey turned violent when supporters of the pro-government Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) attacked the headquarters and local offices of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). In one case, dozens of demonstrators pelted the HDP headquarters in Ankara with stones, while in another city, an angry mob of 150 people set fire to four shops owned by Kurdish businessmen.
There are concerns that Turkey is descending into chaos and possibly civil war, and Saturday's bombing in Ankara increases those concerns. Hurriyet (Turkey) and Independent (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey's terror attack triggers vitriolic political finger-pointing thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Oct-2015)
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Obama administration announces an abrupt change of policy in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Six Palestinians were killed and hundreds of Palestinians and Israeli were wounded on Friday as several weeks of violence continued. ( "9-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli-Palestinian violence spreads across West Bank as anger grows")
Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, which governs Gaza, applauded the recent Palestinian knife attacks on Israelis, and called for a "third intifada." By contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "strongly condemned the harming of innocent Arabs." Both Israeli and Palestinian security forces are on high alert, with more violence expected. Fox News/AP
The Obama administration's widely ridiculed $500 million program to train and equip Syrian rebels to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was "paused" on Friday as a publicly admitted failure. The program was supposed to train thousands of rebels, but the public was shocked several weeks ago when the administration admitted that only "four or five" had been trained, despite the program's huge price tag.
As Foreign Policy magazine put it: "On Capitol Hill, it’s been called “a joke,” a “total failure,” and “a bigger disaster than I could have ever imagined.” And now we have another name for it: dead."
A new program has been announced. The new program will provide air support and basic equipment and training to vetted opposition group leaders who are already fighting ISIS and who are committed to fighting ONLY ISIS, and not the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
Brett McGurk, whose title is "White House deputy envoy to the Global Coalition to Counter Islamic State," described the new program as follows:
"Is it best to take those guys out and put them through training programs for many weeks, or to keep them on the line fighting and to give them additional enablers and support? I think the latter is the right answer, and that's what we're going to be doing."
According to Secretary of Defense Ash Carter: "I remain convinced that a lasting defeat of ISIL in Syria will depend in part on the success of local, motivated and capable ground forces. I believe the changes we are instituting today will, over time, increase the combat power of counter-ISIL forces in Syria and ultimately help our campaign achieve a lasting defeat of ISIL."
The old policy was criticized and mocked from the day it was announced last year. The new policy is receiving similar treatment. A NY Times editorial titled "An Incoherent Syria War Strategy" points out that the strategy of finding and arming rebel groups that want to fight ISIS but who are going to be forbidden from fighting the al-Assad regime makes no sense:
"The initial plan was dubious. The new one is hallucinatory, and it is being rolled out as the war enters a more perilous phase now that Russia has significantly stepped up its military support of Mr. Assad’s forces.There is no reason to believe that the United States will suddenly be successful in finding rebel groups that share its narrow goal of weakening the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, but not joining the effort to topple Mr. Assad. Washington’s experience in Syria and other recent wars shows that proxy fighters are usually fickle and that weapons thrust into a war with no real oversight often end up having disastrous effects."
This harsh criticism from a newspaper that regularly slobbers over Obama symbolizes how much even the left-wing mainstream media, not to mention foreign media throughout the Mideast, now views the Obama administration as weak and rudderless, lurching from one policy to the next. (As another example, it had been widely expected that Secretary of State John Kerry would win this year's Nobel Peace Prize for the Iran nuclear deal, but even the loony Norwegians have lost faith.) VOA and NY Times
I've written many times about the Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of 1947, which made America policeman of the world. The justification is that it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. Every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman.
Call it Kismet or Karma or God's Will (or call it an unstoppable generational trend), but America does have an exceptional role in the world, and repudiating that role does not end it. Obama's policy of apologizing for America has held sway for over six years, but now powerful political pressures are growing to force a change. Those forces are being driven by massive shifts in public attitudes towards Obama, both in the US and abroad, as reflected in worldwide criticism of him in the media as a weak president.
According to the left-leaning Washington Post:
"Russia’s military moves in Syria are fundamentally changing the face of the country’s civil war, putting President Bashar al-Assad back on his feet, and may complicate the Obama administration’s plans to expand its air operations against the Islamic State. ...But others within the administration, and many outside experts, are increasingly worried that if President Obama does not take decisive action — such as quickly moving to claim the airspace over northwestern Syria and the Turkish border, where Russian jets are already operating — it is the United States that will suffer significant damage to both its reputation and its foreign policy and counterterrorism goals. ...
The current internal administration debate is largely the same one that has kept the administration out of significant intervention in Syria’s civil war for the past four years. On one side, Russia’s involvement has strengthened the winning argument that the United States should avoid direct involvement in yet another Middle East conflict and should continue directing its resources toward countering forces such as the Islamic State that pose a direct threat to U.S. national security.
On the other side, the argument is that it makes no strategic sense for the United States to concede Russian dominance of the situation: If Russia succeeds in keeping Assad in power, the problems in the West caused by both the Syrian war and militant expansion will only get worse."
The article describes two sides of the debate whether to intervene in Syria, but does not draw the obvious conclusion that the weight of political opinion is moving sharply towards the side of some kind of intervention -- although those that say that "it makes no strategic sense ... to concede Russian dominance" do not agree on what steps should be taken to avoid conceding.
The left-leaning Brookings Institution makes the claim that intervention in Syria is costing Russia enormously, and so "For the United States, avoiding the temptation to over-react is still the key guideline."
But the article then goes on to describe problems with doing nothing, and even conclude:
"Finally, the United States and its allies could deliver a series of airstrikes on the Hezbollah bands around Damascus. That would be less confrontational vis-à-vis Russia than hitting Assad’s forces. Hezbollah has already suffered losses in the Syrian war and is not particularly motivated to stand with Assad to the bitter end, away from own home-ground in Lebanon. (Israel would appreciate such punishment, too.)"
I almost can't believe my eyes reading this recommendation. American warplanes around Damascus would almost certainly come into contact with Russian warplanes, and even if they didn't, bombing al-Assad's close ally Hezbollah could be the trigger that sets off a wider war in this generational Crisis era.
Policy can sometimes act like a rubber band that be stretched in one direction so far that when it's released, it snaps back in the other direction violently. After six years of constantly apologizing for America, the pressure is on President Obama to do something different. Brookings advises Obama about "avoiding the temptation to over-react," but Obama may be politically forced to decide that with his previous policies so widely criticized and mocked, he has to take some step to prove to the world that he's a tough leader after all, and he may have to over-react, because no half-measure will provide the proof he needs. Washington Post and Brookings Institution
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Oct-15 World View -- Politics may force Obama to 'over-react' militarily in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Oct-2015)
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Four Russian cruise missiles fall in Iran
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Thousands of families in China, returning to Beijing at the end of a week-long national day holiday, are now stuck in a week-long traffic jam. As the cars approach Beijing, the 30-lane highway narrows to fewer than 10 lanes at a toll booth. Russia Today
According to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein:
"The security situation has deteriorated dramatically over the past week in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Four Israelis and five Palestinians have already lost their lives, while hundreds of others have been injured. More bloodshed will only lead to more hatred on both sides, and offer no solution in the long run.The violence is spreading rapidly across the entire West Bank. In the past week, violent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces have been reported in more than 50 different locations, including in East Jerusalem, Ramallah, Hebron, Bethlehem, Jenin, Tulkarm and Nablus.
The escalating tensions indicate a general sense of growing frustration and despair resulting from the situation of prolonged occupation, exacerbated by recent restrictions imposed by the Israeli authorities on Palestinian worshippers wishing to access the Al-Aqsa [and Temple Mount] compound, the ongoing settlement expansion and settler violence, and a general lack of accountability in cases such as the Duma arson attack."
Although both Palestinians and Israelis have contributed to the the violence, Al-Hussein mostly ignored Palestinian incitement and assigns almost all of the blame to the Israelis, and particularly mentioned Duma arson "price tag" attack by Israeli settlers. ( "1-Aug-15 World View -- Tensions with Palestinians soar after brutal Israeli settler 'price tag' attack")
Despite the efforts of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to calm the situation, the amount of violence between Palestinians and Israelis in the West Bank has increased significantly in the last two weeks.
In just the last couple of days, several Israelis were stabbed by Palestinians, and some Palestinians were killed by Israeli security forces.
Netanyahu was scheduled on Thursday to fly to Germany for events commemorating 50 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries, but had to cancel the trip because of the wave of violence. "We are still in the midst of a wave of terror. We are taking strong action against terrorists, rioters and inciters," said Netanyahu.
Jerusalem has been the epicenter of the violence, where police since mid-September have arrested at least 270 Palestinians suspected of taking part in riots and rock and firebomb attacks. Violence in the Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem is extremely sensitive. Temple Mount is the holiest site in the Jewish religion, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third holiest site in Islam, after Mecca and Medina. Al Monitor and United Nations and LA Times
As we reported two days ago, there is a big generational component to the increasing West Bank violence.
Ever since they were born, young Palestinians in their teens and early twenties have been listening to talk about negotiations for a two-state solution, but they see nothing ever change, and they don't believe that negotiations will ever change anything.
The older Palestinians, their parents, remember the first intifada and the second intifada, and although there was a great deal of bloodshed, violence didn't accomplish anything more than negotiating did. So the older Palestinians don't see the point in any more violence, or a third intifada.
As we've been saying for years, Mahmoud Abbas is 80 years old (born in 1935), and is the only remaining major leader from the generation of survivors of the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Abbas, more than anyone, knows that a third intifada could quickly spiral into a major war. He also knows that a major war will bring about enormous bloodshed and suffering for millions of people and, like negotiating or an intifada, will not accomplish anything.
Still, it's not clear how long Abbas can keep the top on the pressure cooker. He's widely respected for his service to Palestinians, but young people increasingly consider him to be largely irrelevant.
If Abbas can keep a third intifada from starting now, then it will be only a temporary reprieve from the violence. If Abbas steps down, then the third intifada will probably begin. If the third intifada begins, then Abbas will probably be forced to step down. Sooner or later, those two events will occur. Spectator (London)
Yesterday we reported that four Russian warships in the Caspian Sea launch 26 cruise missiles, with targets in Syria. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea")
According to unnamed U.S. officials, four of the missiles did not reach their targets, but crashed in Iran.
Iran did not confirm the report, but Iran's news media reported that "an unknown flying object" had crashed in the village of Ghozghapan in the Iranian province of West Azerbaijan, said to be under the missiles' flight path. BBC
There were 40,000 dengue fever infections in Vietnam during the first nine months of the year, with 25 deaths, and the outbreak has not showed any sign of winding down. Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon) had the highest number of infections, 10,000. Doctors said the mosquito-borne disease has a cyclical pattern and tends to become very severe after three to five years. Thanh Nien News (Saigon)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Oct-15 World View -- Israeli-Palestinian violence spreads across West Bank as anger grows thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(9-Oct-2015)
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IMF warns of significant danger of global financial crash
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Another day, another escalation. There have been rumors and reports that suggested that Russia might bomb targets in Syria from warships located in the Mediterranean Sea, and that could still happen.
But on Wednesday, Russia has surprised everyone by launching a volley of 26 cruise missiles from four warships in the Caspian Sea at targets in Syria. The cruise missiles, which have a range of up to 2,500 km, had to travel 1,500 km over the countries of Iran and Iraq, and the Russians claim that they obtained permission from those countries to do so.
The Russians claimed that the cruise missiles were targeting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), but analysts pointed out that, as usual, the Russians are simply lying. According to reports, the missiles targeted Urbil and Homa, which are Free Syrian Army (FSA) strongholds with no ISIS presence.
Last week, Russian warplanes that supposedly were striking ISIS targets actually attacked the headquarters of the Free Syrian Army in Kafr Nabl in northern Idlib province. Another attack was on an emergency hospital that treats wounded fighters. Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Wednesday that on two of Russia's 57 airstrikes in Syria have hit ISIS targets, while the rest have targeted other groups.
It's increasingly clear that the Russians are not targeting ISIS, except perfunctorily. The Syrian conflict began in 2011 when the regime of president Bashar al-Assad started bombing innocent protesting civilians, massacring tens of thousands of innocent Sunni women and children with heavy weapons and Sarin gas, and with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.
It al-Assad's genocidal actions that drew tens of thousands of young jihadists from around the world to Syria to fight the al-Assad regime, resulting in the creation of ISIS. Al-Assad has never targeted ISIS, but has supported ISIS because ISIS has been fighting other Syrian opposition groups, doing al-Assad's job for him.
Russian warplanes violated Turkey's airspace earlier this week, and now Russia is launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea. Both of these actions are significant escalations by the Russians. It's increasingly clear that the Russians do not accept any limit to their military intervention into Syria, including, if desired, a full-scale invasion.
Now the Russians are continuing al-Assad's genocidal acts, with
warplanes and now with cruise missiles. This is not going to defeat
ISIS, since ISIS isn't even being targeted. This is going to
strengthen ISIS by drawing more thousands of young jihadists from
around the world to join ISIS. Asia Times and Moscow Times (5-Oct) and
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As I suggested last month in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast", one of worst outcomes from Russia's intervention in Syria would occur if jihadists saw it as an Orthodox Christian invasion of a Muslim country in the same way that they viewed the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as a Christian invasion of a Muslim country.
Astonishingly, Russian officials seemed determined to make that worst-case scenario a reality.
According to Vsevolod Chaplin, a senior cleric in the Orthodox Church:
"The active position of our country has always been connected with protection of the weak and oppressed, like the Middle East Christians who are now experiencing a real genocide. Russia’s role has always been in protecting peace and justice for all Mideast peoples.Terrorism is immoral and we need to protect those who are being driven from their lands by war.
Whatever they are trying to justify terrorism with, it cannot be justified. Thus, any fight against terrorism is moral, we can even call it a holy fight."
Chaplain said that the invasion of Syria is supported by Russians of all religious (which is highly doubtful), but it doesn't matter because the phrase "holy fight" is being quoted in media around the Mideast.
Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, issued a statement saying:
"The Russian Federation has made a responsible decision on the use of armed forces to defend the people of Syria from the sorrows caused by the arbitrariness of terrorists. We believe this decision will bring peace and justice closer to this ancient land.Wishing peace to the peoples of Syria, Iraq and other countries of the Middle East, we pray for this tough local conflict not to develop into a major war, for the use of force not to lead to the death of civilians, and for all Russian military [personnel] to return home alive."
Russia Today (30-Sep) and Interfax-Religion (Moscow 30-Sep)
The statements made by the Russian Orthodox Church describing the war being fought by the Russian army in Syria and its role in protecting the Christians in the region as a “holy war” has sparked a wave of angry Arab responses and statements on social networking sites. Such statements have reached the point of declaring a jihad in response to the Russian statement.
According to one jihad activist:
"The Russians are burning our Syria, the Jews are desecrating our Jerusalem, the Majoos (fire worshippers) are emptying our Iraq of Sunni Muslims, and our leaders are killing our free youth.Our world is on the verge of exploding in anger and jihad. The toughest fighters are those who have nothing to lose, and our youth are so.
Jerusalem is besieged, blood is being shed in Egypt, Syria and Iraq, justice in our countries is a thing of the past, and our youth are longing for jihad. Beware to the secular Russians from our Muslim youth who long to fight them and beware of the Zionists from the jihad that is coming; a jihad that their allies prevented us from carrying out. It seems that Syria will be the meeting point and from there we will return to Jerusalem.
Dozens of Salafist clerics in Saudi Arabia signed an online statement containing strong sectarian and anti-Christian language reflecting mounting anger among many Saudis over Russian and Iranian involvement in Syria's civil war.
The clerics' statement compared Russia's actions to the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which prompted an international jihad, as I've described many times. According to the statement:
"The holy warriors of Syria are defending the whole Islamic nation. Trust them and support them ... because if they are defeated, God forbid, it will be the turn of one Sunni country after another."
It's not clear that these online statements are inciting anyone to action, but they are reflecting the enormous anger that Saudis feel over arch-enemy Iran allying with Russia to kill Sunni Muslims in Syria. Middle East Monitor and Reuters
According to a report issued on Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the risk of global financial crash is increasing because of a "triad of risks":
One of the ironies of the global financial crisis so far, especially in developing economies, is that many countries have devalued their currencies relative to the dollar. The result is that the dollar, which has always been a strong currency, continues to become even stronger.
In many countries, people have incurred business, mortgage or personal debts that are denominated in dollars, rather than their local currencies. With the dollar strengthening, these debts are becoming substantially more expensive. According to the IMF report, countries that are particularly exposed in this way are Hungary, Mexico, Indonesia and Chile. BBC and Guardian (London) and CBS and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Oct-2015)
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The sleazy world of loan sharking -- legally
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The war in Yemen hasn't been in headlines much lately, thanks to the growing disaster in Syria, but the status is as follows:
These factors have apparent convinced the Iran-backed Houthi leadership to sign a letter to UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon committing to Ban's peace plan. The letter commits to a ceasefire, the removal of armed militias from the cities, including Sanaa, and the return of the international recognized government of Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi to Sanaa.
Signing a letter committing to a ceasefire is possibly a game-changing event. The whole thing could fall apart quickly over negotiations on implementing the peace plan. Or it could be a ploy to gain time to rearm.
The peace plan was put forward by Oman several months ago, and is known as the 7-point Muscat plan, where Muscat is the capital city of Oman. The 7 points are:
According to reports at the time, the plan was approved by both Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Houthis have been holdouts, until now. BBC and Al Araby (24-April-2015)
Al-Jazeera reporter Hoda Abdel-Hamid was asked to Tuesday to report on the mood of the Palestinians in the West Bank. Here's her response (my transcript):
"As Mike Hanna [another reporter] said there, there is frustration, but I would add to it there's disillusionment, and lack of hope in the future. Most of the youth who go to these protests and to these clashes are in their late teens and their early twenties. Ever since they were born, they heard about the Oslo Accords, they heard about the two state solution, they've been watching summits, and international conferences, but on the ground their reality has actually shrunk with each expansion of the settlements, with each land grab from Israel, with each confrontation - they also grow more and more angry.So when you talk to people here, the problem is there is no solution inside, there is no political settlement that's going to come any time soon. And you really feel that they don't know any more, how to express how frustrated they are, about how things are going. They keep on saying that Israel is shrinking their area of living, their livelihood, they're taking away land, they also have a lot of concerns about what's going on around the Al-Aqsa compound, this is gonna bring another turn to this conflict that's been going on forever. So many will just tell you we don't believe in anything anymore. Some of the youth also say, well, maybe going back to violence is the only solution ahead - maybe that will put pressure on the international community to bring about a solution.
I think you have these very mixed feelings, people will also tell you, especially a bit older generation, will tell you, well we had Intifada one, we had Intifada two, we've paid with our blood, and we still didn't get anything. So that's I think really the crux of the dilemma for the Palestinian people. They look forward, but they don't know what to look at exactly."
This is an interesting because it shows a typical generational split that's present in every society in every country in every era. The kids are ready for violence, but the parents hold the kids back, since they remember how horrific the violence was last time, and how it didn't end up the way they wanted.
Still, there is a growing frustration in the Palestinian territories. As I've been writing since May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
Russia continues to claim that its warplanes in Syria are targeting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), although numerous reports indicate that Russia's warplanes are avoiding ISIS targets and are targeting the so-called "moderate" opposition to the Bashar al-Assad regime, including groups that are supported by the United States.
Russia has posted 14 videos showing Russian airstrikes in Syria. Russia claims that all of the videos show ISIS targets being bombed, and many of them claimed that the bombed locations were in Raqqa, an ISIS stronghold.
But web site called "Bellingcat" claims to have analyzed the videos using geolocation technology and crowdsourcing techniques, and says that the following is true of 12 of the videos analyzed so far:
The web site called "Bellingcat" calls itself "by and for citizen investigative journalists," and is presumably named after the ancient "Belling the cat" fable.
There's no independent verification of the Bellingcat findings, but they're consistent with the fact that, as we learned with the Ukraine invasion and now the Syria incursion, that Russian officials can never be believed. Bellingcat analysis
The story of how two ultrareligious men, Abe Zeines and Meir Hurwitz, made ridiculous by lending money to desperate business owners, usually immigrants.
"With no competition, Second Source could charge whatever it wanted. The standard deal it offered small businesses was to borrow $9,000 and pay back $120 a day for six months, or a total of $14,500, equivalent to an interest rate of 250 percent a year. That’s 10 times the legal limit in New York state, which made it a crime in the 1960s to charge more than 25 percent. To get around that, merchant cash-advance companies argue they aren’t actually charging interest—they’re buying the money businesses will make in the future, at a discount. As long as nobody uses the word “loan,” it usually holds up in court, says Robert Cook, a lawyer who advises the industry. Another no-no is chasing down an individual to collect if the business fails. Merchant cash advance is a supercharged version of “factoring,” the age-old practice of trading the right to collect unpaid bills in exchange for cash upfront."
As I've been pointing out for many, many years, bankers created the financial crisis by selling fraudulent synthetic subprime-mortgage backed securities. Since nobody was punished, they went on to commit fraud in the Libor and Forex scandals. All this has come about since the rise of Generation-X starting in 2000, after which white collar crimes are never prosecuted, as long as they give a substantial portion of their fraudulent gains to politicians as campaign contributions. Now we have loan sharks making tens of millions of dollars by legalized loan sharking. Until some of these people are put in jail, these activities are not going to stop. Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Oct-15 World View -- Yemen's Houthis sign letter agreeing to peace plan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Oct-2015)
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Russia's incursions may be targeting Turkey's Hatay province
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Russian warplanes violated Turkey's airspace on two occasions over the weekend, once on Saturday and once on Sunday.
Russia's Defense Ministry admitted Saturday's intrusion, saying that it was an accidental intrusion caused by poor weather, but denied knowing anything about Sunday's intrusion.
Based on the experience and Ukraine, we know that anything that a Russian official says is going be partially or completely a lie, there is no particular reason to believe Russia's Defense Ministry.
Indeed, an unnamed senior US official said the Obama administration does not believe the incursion was an accident, and officials are in urgent talks with allies about what to do.
Since Turkey is a member of Nato, an attack on Turkey be an attack on all of Nato. Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued the following statement:
"I just met with the Foreign Minister of Turkey Feridun Sinirlioglu to discuss the recent military actions of the Russian Federation in and around Syria. Including the unacceptable violations of Turkish airspace by Russian combat aircraft.I made clear that NATO remains strongly committed to Turkey’s security. I will convene a meeting of the North Atlantic Council later today to discuss the situation.
Russia’s actions are not contributing to the security and stability of the region.
I call on Russia to fully respect NATO airspace and to avoid escalating tensions with the Alliance. I urge Russia to take the necessary steps to align its efforts with those of the international community in the fight against ISIL."
The harshest threat came from Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who said any future warplanes violating Turkey's airspace could be shot down:
"What we received from Russia this morning indicates that this was a mistake, that they respect Turkey's borders and that this will not happen again.Turkey's rules of engagement apply to all planes, be they Syrian, Russian or from elsewhere. Turkey's armed forces have very clear instructions. The necessary steps will be taken against whoever violates Turkey's borders, even if it's a bird.
For Russia, which long opposed foreign intervention in Syria and blocked UN Security Council [UNSC] resolutions, to be actively involved in Syria is both a contradiction and a move that has escalated the crisis.
The Turkish Armed Forces [TSK] have their orders. What is necessary will be done, even if it's a bird that violates Turkey's border... Our rules of engagement are clear,"
The back story is that in June, 2012, Syrian forces shot down a Turkish air force jet. ( "23-Jun-12 World View -- Syria shoots down Turkey's air force jet") A furious Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed that the rules of engagement would be changed, and that Turkey would use military force in response to any incursion by Syrian aircraft. (Paragraph corrected. 30-Jan-2016)
On September 16, 2013, Turkey scrambled two F-16 jets, and shot down a Syrian Russian-made Mi-17 helicopter, after warning it that it was approaching Turkish airspace. The helicopter was shot down over Turkey's airspace, but it landed in a ball of flames on the Syrian side of the border. Reports indicates that Syrian anti-government rebels shot the pilots dead after they ejected.
It's hard to overestimate the significance of these developments, as I wrote last month in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast."
Russia's military incursion into Syria is substantially inflaming sectarian tensions throughout the Mideast. Russia and Turkey are age-old enemies that have fought many generational crisis wars. Russia is allied with Iran, who is a bitter enemy of Saudi Arabia. And Russia's incursion is inflaming Sunni jihadists who are reminded of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Russia feels that it can do anything it wants in the Mideast or elsewhere because the Obama administration is extremely weak and will always back off from any Russian show of force. As I've been writing for years, the entire Mideast is headed for a full-scale sectarian generational crisis war that will engulf the region. Russian officials may believe that Obama's weakness allows them to do anything they want, but their actions are inflaming age-old ethnic and religious conflicts that will lead to a major war. Today's Zaman (Turkey) and AP and NATO
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There's a major reason why Western officials believe that the Russians are lying, beyond the fact that Russia's president Vladimir Putin lies about pretty much everything.
The reason was expressed in a BBC interview by James Jeffrey, former US ambassador to Turkey, now at Washington Institute for Near East Policy. According to Jeffrey:
"It's tremendously destabilizing, and here's one reason why. The area they flew into, Hatay province, I know it well, was part of Syria until the end of the 1930s, and Syria has never acknowledged that as Turkish territory, so you have a very interesting situation. It's very difficult for me to believe that the Russians made a mistake. ...I think this [Russian intervention] is long term, and I think it is that Putin doesn't think there's any real beef behind this coalition, beginning here in Washington. He thinks that as he bullies his way forward, everybody 's going to fall back. The coalition of forces and capabilities weigh against him. Putin's a guy all about intentions. He doesn't think that president Obama intends to do anything other than back down when Putin threatens him."
So the implication is that Russia's military may invade Hatay province and annex it to Syria in the same way that Russia's military invaded Crimea and annexed it to Russia. Russia can count on Obama and Nato to back down, but Monday's incursions tested whether Turkey would also back down. In fact, Turkey did back down from its rules of engagement, and only warned Russia instead of shooting down the warplanes, but that could change next time, as Davutoglu's threat implies.
Most of the population of Hatay province is Alawite, the same as Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The population is strongly secular and committed to religious tolerance, but the people are divided about the Syrian war, with Alawite's supporting the regime and Hatay's Sunni population supporting the opposition. Washington Institute for Near East Policy (4-Apr-2013) and Guardian (London 3-Sep-2013)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey threatens Russia if airspace violations are repeated thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Oct-2015)
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Violence in Jerusalem increases after Abbas's UN speech
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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For the last three weeks, there have been a series of clashes between Israel's police and Palestinian protesters at the sensitive Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem. rioters have been throwing rocks and petrol bombs, while barricading themselves in the Al-Aqsa mosque, forcing Israeli police eject them. Israeli security forces responded with tear gas and stun grenades.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared "war" on stone-throwers, after the stone throwing caused a traffic accident that killed a Jewish man. Netanyahu authorized increased use of live fire.
As the clashes continued, dozens of Palestinians were wounded by live fire and rubber bullets. Hamas responded by calling for a "day or rage" over tensions at the site. The clashes were further provoked by Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday, when he threatened to repudiate the 1993 Oslo peace agreement.
On Saturday (two days ago), a 19-year-old Palestinian killed two Israelis and wounded a woman and child in a gun and knife attack. On Sunday, a Palestinian was shot dead by police, after he stabbed and wounded a 15-year-old.
Violence in the Temple Mount / Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem is extremely sensitive. Temple Mount is the holiest site in the Jewish religion, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third holiest site in Islam, after Mecca and Medina. When violence forced Israel to shut down access to the Al-Aqsa mosque for two days in February of this year, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas called it "tantamount to a declaration of war," and Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel. Jordan said that Israeli practices in Jerusalem were undermining 1994 peace treaty between the two countries. The peace treaty had reaffirmed Jordanian oversight of Jerusalem's holy sites.
On Sunday, an angry Netanyahu announced a "harsh offensive" on Palestinian violence. New measures would include speeding up the razing of homes of Palestinian attackers and banning those who incite violence from the Old City. Netanyahu said that he would step up administrative detentions, deploy more forces in Jerusalem and in the West Bank and to remove agitators from Jerusalem's Old City and Temple Mount.
Possibly even more significant, Israeli police are now restricting access to Jerusalem's Old City. Only Israeli citizens, Old City residents, tourists, businesspeople working in the area and students studying there will be allowed to enter. Also, Muslim men under the age of 50 will be prevented from attending prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which is similar to the restriction that led to Palestinian outrage in February of this year. Reuters and Guardian (London)
Palestinian leaders are expressing outrage, especially over the restrictions on access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque. According to one Palestinian official:
"What's happening today is a renewal of Israeli arrogance and recklessness. Jerusalem is now a military base, sons of Jerusalem are now banned from entering the Old City."
PLO Secretary-General Saeb Erekat said:
"These events are reminiscent of September 2000 [the start of the second intifada]. ... Experience shows us that Israel cannot prevent Palestinian freedom by forceful measures. ... [We] are in touch with leaders in the Arab world and International community in order to prevent Israel from expanding into a greater ground incursion."
Erekat might also have mentioned that these events are reminiscent of the weeks preceding last summer's Gaza War. After it was over, Hamas said that it was only trying to foment a "third intifada." ( "22-Aug-14 World View -- Hamas says it didn't intend to start the Gaza War")
The first two intifadas occurred, respectively in 1987-93 and 2000-03. What makes an intifada different from an ordinary riot is that it receives more widespread popular support, and the riots and violence are more sustained, rather than sporadic. The first intifada resulted in constant scenes of Palestinians throwing rocks at Israeli army and police in daily clashes, and it eventually led to the 1993 peace treaty.
The second intifada was triggered by a visit to the Al-Aqsa mosque by Ariel Sharon in 2000. This intifada went beyond rock throwing into pitched gun battles, suicide bombing and terrorist activities. It led to the building of the wall that separates much of Israel from the West Bank.
Many people predicted a third intifada in 2014, but there was a 60-day full-scale Gaza war instead.
The violence in Jerusalem has been further fueled by the 'bombshell' ultimatum that Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas delivered to Israel in his United Nations speech on Wednesday. He threatened to stop abiding by the terms of the 1993 peace agreement, and suggested that he would end the Palestinian-Israeli security agreement where Palestinian security forces are responsible for policing the West Bank. If the agreement is ended, then Israel would be responsible, as the "occupying power," to police the entire West Bank. This would trigger numerous clashes between Palestinian protesters and Israeli police, and may be all that's necessary in the present climate to start a third intifada.
According to Erekat, the Palestinian leadership is waiting for Abbas to return back to the West Bank from his UN trip, in order to implement "what (he) declared in his speech" to the UN. Jerusalem Post and CNN and YNet and Telegraph (London - 6-Nov-2014)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Oct-15 World View -- Abbas's UN speech raises concerns about a Palestinian 'third intifada' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Oct-2015)
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Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party shows remarkable resilience
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Greece's far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras continued with his mind-bending U-turn on Saturday by saying in a speech to the parliament that Greece must implement the harsh austerity measures demanded by the Europeans for a new bailout, and must implement them as quickly as possible. He said:
"Implementing the bailout is not going to be easy. But we are obliged to make these decisions although we don't like them. It's necessary, in order to exit this system of surveillance and immediately start the discussion on the debt issue.Our main target is to exit this system of supervision, and regain market access. But a necessary condition for that is to return to growth."
Tsipras was elected early this year by promising that there would be no more austerity measures. After being elected, he repeatedly lied and promised reforms with no intention of implementing. Infuriated lending institutions gave him an ultimatum. He called for a referendum in July, in which the voters told him to have no more austerity measures. The lending institutions renewed the ultimatum, and because of all the lying, demanded to put Greece's budget process under outside supervision.
Tsipras then turned around and agreed to implement the harsh austerity measures demanded by Greece's lenders, because European officials were "holding a knife at my neck." The Europeans agreed to a new 86 billion euro bailout loan in return for the austerity measures, which address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.
After this breathtaking U-turn, Tsipras called for new elections, which his far-left Syriza party won last month. As I wrote last month after the September 20 elections, it makes you wonder whether voters ever have any idea what they're doing.
Well, things have been fairly peaceful since July, mainly thanks to a bridge loan that the Europeans provided, to allow the banks to reopen and to prevent bankruptcy.
But now the bridge loan has run out, and Tsipras has to resume negotiations, and enact a set of reforms by November 15, to receive the next tranche in the 86 billion euro loan.
As you can tell from Tsipras's remarks quoted above, a major objective is to "regain market access." When he means by that is that he'd like to do as little as possible, but whatever is necessary, to be able to return to the capital markets and start borrowing again, so that his government can start unlimited spending again.
Tsipras promised to complete the first review of the bailout plan as soon as possible, and open the negotiations with the lenders on debt relief. It's been a while since we've had weekly Greek financial crises, but those days should be returning soon. Kathimerini (Athens) and Reuters
A new analysis shows that the increasing popularity of Greece's Golden Dawn political party is related to the flood of migrants passing through Greece.
Besides the financial crisis, Greece is in the midst of one more major crisis. Greece is a transit country through which hundreds of thousands of migrants pass through in order to reach Germany and other northern European countries. Typically, human smugglers in Turkey transport the migrants, usually from Syria or Iraq, to a Greek island in the Aegean sea. From there, a Greek ferry transports them to the mainland. They travel through Greece to Macedonia, and then go north.
With Greece on the front lines of the migrant crisis, it's perhaps not surprising, that a notable outcome of Greece's September 20 elections was that the far-right Golden Dawn party managed to score some gains despite officially being charged as a criminal organization. (The term "far right" has different meanings in Europe and America.)
Many Greeks voted for Golden Dawn, even though Golden Dawn party members have openly assaulted immigrants and other people that they don't like, and called for deportation of even Greek citizens who are not pure ethnic Greeks. The Greek public only turned against Golden Dawn on September 18, 2013, after self-identified Golden Dawn members murdered a white Greek civilian, Pavlos Fyssas, or Killah P, who rapped against the kind of racism that Golden Dawn practices. That killing shocked the Greek public, and led the government to arrest the party's leader, Nikolaos Michaloliakos, and formally charge him with belonging to a criminal organization. Dozens more members were arrested as well, including four MPs (holding seats in Greece's parliament). The charges include homicide, attempted homicide, money laundering, blackmail, grievous bodily harm, and other serious crimes.
Since the September 20 elections, a new analysis has shown the following:
These patterns were not present in the past, but only became apparent with the September 20 elections, after the long summer surge of migrants. Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Oct-15 World View -- Greece's Alexis Tsipras says that Greece must implement harsh reforms thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(4-Oct-2015)
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Saudi Arabia appears to have stalled in the Yemen war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Saudi Arabia-backed forces loyal to the internationally recognized government of president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi of Yemen are claiming a major victory on Friday, having regained control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait that partially controls international shipping access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The narrow waterway, which separates Yemen from Djibouti only some 32km away, funnels shipping to and from the Suez Canal, which lies at the north end of the Red Sea.
The strait was recaptured from the Iran-backed Houthi militias, who seized the capital city Sanaa in September of last year, forcing president Hadi to flee. The Houthi militias then swept south, seizing territory as far as the port of Aden on the southern coast. Hadi fled first to Aden and then to Saudi Arabia last Spring, where he ran a government in exile. Hadi was able to return to Aden last month, after loyalist forces regained control of Aden. The forces have been moving north and have now recaptured the port at Bab el-Mandeb, as preparation to attempt the recapture of Taiz, Yemen's third largest city (after Sanaa and Aden).
Although Saudi and loyalist forces are consolidating control of the recaptured areas in the south, the frequently-promised assault to recapture Sanaa has not yet materialized, slowed by landmines and stiff resistance from Houthi forces in rugged mountains, giving the impression that the Saudi effort has stalled. AFP and AP and Al Monitor
Even before the war, Yemen was one of the poorest countries in the world. When the Saudi Arabia-led coalition started bombing Houthi targets on March 26, destroying infrastructure, the humanitarian problems have become extremely severe. However, the situation in Yemen has been battling for headlines with Syria, so there's little attention being paid.
Even so, a massive explosion at a wedding party on Monday, apparently from a Saudi coalition air strike, has substantially increased the international pressure on Saudi Arabia to stop the air strikes. The targeted area was adjacent to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and the death toll from the two missiles that struck the wedding was 151, including many women and children.
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed the usual outrage. He condemned the high death toll at the wedding event and warned that any intentional attack on civilians violates international law and must be investigated.
The Saudi coalition is denying any responsibility for the attack, although the denial is not generally believed.
The Saudi coalition says that it has seized an Iranian fishing boat carrying weapons to Houthi militias in Yemen. Iran has always denied supplying weapons to the Houthis, although their denials have not been generally believed. The weapons included 70 anti-tank shells, shell battery kits, firing guidance systems, and other components to launch TOW anti-armor missiles. Reuters and United Nations and Arab News and Deutsche Welle
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Oct-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia under international pressure to end Yemen airstrikes thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Oct-2015)
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Central African Republic canceling elections and possibly Pope's visit
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Bangui, the capital city of Central African Republic (CAR), is experiencing its worst violence in almost two years. The violence was triggered on Saturday when the body of a Muslim motorbike taxi driver was found outside a mosque in a majority Muslim neighborhood. Dozens were killed in clashes between Muslim ex-Seleka militias fighting Christian anti-Balaka militias. An estimated 40,000 people were forced to flee their homes.
On Monday, members of the Christian anti-Balaka militias attacked the prison on Monday, freeing hundreds of soldiers and militiamen. Buildings have been looted or destroyed, and shops and businesses were forced to close.
United Nations peacekeepers fired warning shots in the air to disperse thousands of Christian protesters calling for the rearming of CAR's national army. The U.N. has yet to rearm the military after many officers were linked to the anti-balaka Christian militia that carried out brutal attacks against Muslims.
Bangui was calmer on Wednesday, though the local Red Cross were quoted as saying it was still too dangerous on Bangui's streets to pick up bodies.
According to UN spokesman Leo Hobbs:
"We fear that the violence we're seeing in Bangui is a return to the dark days of late 2013 and 2014, when thousands were killed and tens of thousands had to flee their homes."
CAR is a huge country, geographically, and although violence in Bangui makes all the headlines, there is continuing violence between Christians and Muslims across the country. A kind of chilling symbol of the level of violence in these clashes is that, as we reported in March, almost every one of the 436 mosques in CAR have been destroyed.
Much of the violence outside of Bangui is simply not being documented, according to Lewis Mudge of Human Rights Watch, when he was interviewed on al-Jazeera (my transcription):
"As bad as things are in Bangui, it pales in comparison to what's happening in the east. Hundreds of people are being killed if not thousands. We're only scratching the surface in documenting that. There's a real bush war happening in the eastern provinces. When we're traveling in the bush, we come across villages in which civilians are being killed, homes are being burned, and this stuff is just not being documented."
The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013 by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until January 2014.
After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013, French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka militias.
But then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against the Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been displaced.
Thousands of French and African Union peacekeeping forces have succeeded in bringing the fighting under control in Bangui, but the atrocities have spread north and east to villages far beyond the grasp of the peacekeeping troops.
As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely.
By bringing the violence in Bangui under control for a while, the UN peacekeepers have removed CAR from the headlines, and given the impression that the war was almost over. But in fact, this war is far out of the control of the peacekeepers. As I've said repeatedly, whether it's in the headlines or not, this is a generational crisis war, and it will not end until it's run its course. And that will not happen until it reaches some kind of horrific, explosive climax which, right now, is nowhere in sight. BBC and Reuters and Bloomberg
One thing that the United Nations have been pushing for is that Central African Republic have new national elections, in order exude a sense of normalcy. Elections had been scheduled for October 18, but now they're being postponed.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, elections are nice to have, but when you have tens or hundreds of thousands of Muslims and Christians slaughtering each other, burning down each other's homes, raping each other's wives and decapitating them, then no one's going to stop to vote.
CAR's Christian foreign minister Samuel Rangba gave a speech on Wednesday to the United Nations General Assembly in New York. He would like the UN to lift its arms embargo, so that the government can import weapons and rearm the army and police:
"You can’t support a country without the military and public force necessary to establish the authority of the state."
I doubt that anyone seriously believes that arming the Christian security forces would bring the violence to an end, or would do anything but increase the violence against Muslims.
Pope Francis is scheduled to visit Bangui soon, as well as Nairobi in Kenya and Kampala in Uganda. However, the resurgence of violence in CAR may force the visit to be canceled. According to Bishop Nongo Aziagbia:
"The situation in Bangui is a matter of great concern. If stability is not re-established, that might affect a number of things, including the papal visit. We’re praying for reason, peace and understanding."
Unfortunately, it's going to be a long time before reason, peace and understanding prevail in Central African Republic. AP and Catholic Herald and International Crisis Group
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Oct-15 World View -- Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Oct-2015)
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Mahmoud Abbas's United Nations 'bombshell' something of a dud
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas gave his United Nations speech on Wednesday, and delivered the "bombshell" that he had promised. ( "28-Sep-15 World View -- Palestinian leader Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Israel at UN")
Abbas stated that Israel has repeatedly failed to implement the agreements of the 1993 Oslo peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, and he listed various alleged infringements. He made a demand of Israel:
"I call on the Israeli Government, before it is too late, to cease its use of brutal force to impose its plans to undermine the Islamic and Christian sanctities in Jerusalem, particularly its actions at Al-Aqsa Mosque, for such actions will convert the conflict from a political to religious one, creating an explosive in Jerusalem and in the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory."
He then delivered his ultimatum:
"Thus, we declare that as long as Israel refuses to commit to the agreements signed with us, which render us an authority without real powers, and as long as Israel refuses to cease settlement activities and to release of the fourth group of Palestinian prisoners in accordance with our agreements, they leave us no choice but to insist that we will not remain the only ones committed to the implementation of these agreements, while Israel continuously violates them. We therefore declare that we cannot continue to be bound by these agreements and that Israel must assume all of its responsibilities as an occupying Power, because the status quo cannot continue and the decisions of the Palestinian Central Council last March are specific and binding."
Abbas's threat, if implemented, would be a major blow to Israel, because Israel would be required to police and provide security for the entire West Bank, taking responsibility for chores that the Palestinians themselves current handle. There would be constant demonstrations across the West Bank targeting Israeli security forces, and these would certainly get out of hand from time to time, and result in gunfire. This could spiral into a much larger conflict.
However, Abbas did not provide a timeline, specifics or an action plan. Also, he didn't resign, as some speculated he might.
Mahmoud Abbas is a man who fits his generational template to a T. He was a survivor of the bloody genocidal 1948 crisis war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of Israel. Millions of people died, suffered, or were driven from their homes. Any generation that grows up through a generational crisis war suffers a kind of generational child abuse, and the entire generation become negotiators and mediators, in order to prevent a repeat of the crisis war.
Abbas was born in 1935 and is now 80 years old, so he may resign soon anyway. The most likely replacement, according to polls, is Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, a Gen-Xer born in 1963. It's pretty certain that if Haniyeh or any younger Palestinian leader gave Israel an ultimatum at the United Nations, then it would be backed by threats that could lead quickly to war. WAFA (Palestine News & Information Agency) and ABC News
Russia's warplanes began striking targets in Syria on Wednesday, and it was done in a way that can only be described as intentionally inflicting as much humiliation on the Obama administration as possible.
A Russian 3-star general knocked on the door of the American embassy in Baghdad on Wednesday morning and asked to speak to a military attaché. He informed the attaché that Russia would begin bombing in Syria in one hour, and he demanded that the US-led coalition stop its airstrikes, and that the targets would be from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Russia's warplanes started bombing an hour later, but they were centered around the city of Homs where is no ISIS activity, but which is under the control of the Free Syrian Army. The FSA is the moderate opposition to Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad, and some of them have been trained and supplied by the US. Some reports indicate that Russian warplanes also targeted civilians. And so, in a sense, Russia's warplanes are striking US-allied targets.
Secretary of State John Kerry swung into action immediately and made one of his typical SNL-worthy hard-hitting statements:
"If Russia’s recent actions, and those now ongoing, reflect a genuine commitment to defeat that organization, then we are prepared to welcome those efforts and to find a way to deconflict our operations and thereby multiply the military pressure on ISIL and affiliated groups.
However, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter made a statement that actually made sense:
"Last week I observed from this podium, as I had observed privately to Russian defense minister [Sergei] Shoigu the week prior that there is a logical contradiction in the Russian position and now its actions in Syria. Russia states an intent to fight ISIL on the one hand, and to support Bashar al-Assad and his regime on the other. Fighting ISIL without pursuing a parallel political transition only risks escalation in Syria. And with it, the very extremism and instability that Moscow claims to be concerned about, and aspire to fighting. So that approach is tantamount, as I said then, to pouring gasoline on the fire."
I certainly agree with this. Russia's actions are insane.
ISIS came into existence when thousands of Sunni jihadists from countries around the world traveled to Syria to fight against Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad, who was massacring tens of thousands of innocent Sunni women and children with heavy weapons and Sarin gas, and with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas.
And now, Russia is going to send Orthodox Christian troops and warplanes to continue bombing innocent Sunni women and children. This is crazy. As Carter said, it's like pouring gasoline on the fire.
I wrote in "13-Sep-15 World View -- Russia opens a dangerous new chapter in Syria and the Mideast," that Russia's military deployment would trigger nationalistic and belligerent responses from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, from terrorists in al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) and ISIS, and from the Recep Tayyip Erdogan government of Turkey.
Wednesday's events significantly exacerbate those trends. It's one more major policy debacle for the Obama administration, and a big new humiliation for the United States. Even worse, it's clear that Russia isn't even targeting terrorists, but is targeting innocent Sunni women and children. This is what caused ISIS to come into existence in the first place, and now ISIS is going to grow even faster. Daily Beast and AP and Russia Direct
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Oct-15 World View -- Russia humiliates US again as it begins striking Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Oct-2015)
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