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70,000 refugees may be trapped in Greece within weeks
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"Tehran is now free" is just one of the gleeful remarks being posted by young people on social media in Iran, after the surprise victory of moderates and reformists in Friday's election for the parliament (majlis) and for the Assembly of Experts. This is the next step in a brutal generational power struggle that I recently described in "6-Feb-16 World View -- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious".
Across the country as a whole, the conservative "principlists" (who insist on adhering to the "principles" of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution), are doing well as votes are counted, but in Tehran, the reformists have won overwhelmingly.
The reformists, representing the views of the younger generations that grew up after the 1979 revolution, have won all 30 seats representing Tehran in parliament. Nationwide, the vote counting is not yet completed, but indications are that the reformists have won a little less than one-third of all the seats in the 290-seat parliament, far exceeding the 20 seats they have in the outgoing parliament.
The moderates, who hold the same conservative views as the principlists but who favor gradual reforms, appear to be winning more than one-third of the seats nationwide. The moderates and the principlists are in the generations of hardline survivors of the 1979 revolutions, with the principlists being the most hardline of all.
Many people are attributing these victories to the extremely high turnout for the elections, with something like 80% of eligible voters voting. The high turnout, in turn, is being credited to the widespread use of the hugely popular anonymous messaging app Telegram, which the principlists had tried unsuccessfully to get banned.
In the Assembly of Experts, the reformists have won at least two seats away from the most hardline of the principlists. The votes for the rest are still being counted.
It now seems likely that the reformists and the moderates together will hold a small majority in the parliament. If that's true, and if they work together, they can push through some reforms that are bitterly opposed by the principlists, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.
Iran is in the midst of a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s. In America there was sporadic violence, such as the "long, hot summers" of street violence in the big cities, violence by the "Chicago seven" at the Democratic convention in 1968, bombings by the Weather Underground, and the shootings at Kent State University.
Iran has gone through tumultuous changes since the 1979 revolution, and moderate president Hassan Rouhani is continuing them, according to an unknown female analyst speaking on the BBC:
"Rouhani has done a lot in terms of social reform. Let me go even a little bit further back when I was growing up in the 80s, every morning our bags were searched so that we wouldn't take any kind of pop music tapes to school. That changed in the 90s, when Khatami was elected and the Ministry of Culture started allowing certain musicians to release albums. Ten years ago, when I was in Iran, there were no street bands, but now there are all these street bands all over Tehran and other cities, and I think they are now banning certain contents, instead of the music itself, and this has happened under President Rouhani, the fact that there are musicians openly on the streets. I think it's a sign of huge social progress."
In Iran, the violence following the June 2009 presidential election was bloody and massive. Largely peaceful street protests were met with unrestrained violence by the police and security forces. Dozens were killed, and 4,000 people were jailed. The police particularly targeted journalists and other government critics with widespread torture, beatings, and threats against family members. Many people were jailed for years.
Now, six years later, the generation of young people who were protesting in the Tehran's streets have now gotten older and more powerful enough to take control of all 30 of Tehran's seats in the parliament.
This is not going to go well. There's too much money and power at stake. The young people who are posting messages like "Tehran is now free" on Telegram quickly going to learn that Tehran is not free, and they're going to threaten the power of the old geezer principlists.
The police and the security forces are still under the complete control of the most conservative principlist of all, Ayatollah Khamenei. Just as he didn't tolerate street protests in 2009, he's not going to tolerate any challenges to his power in the weeks and months to come. Tehran Times and RFE/RL and AP and Human Rights Watch (2009) and BBC Newshour Extra - Is Iran Changing?
There are already more than 20,000 refugees trapped in Greece, with the border to Macedonia closed. ( "26-Feb-16 World View -- Threats of retaliation abound as Europe's refugee crisis deepens")
Thousands of refugees continue to arrive in Greece from Turkey every day, According to Greece's immigration minister Yannis Mouzalas, "We estimate that we will have a number of people trapped in our country which will be between 50,000 and 70,000" by the end of March. In the warmer spring and summer weather, that number could grow substantially.
The most immediate crisis was triggered last week when Austria introduced a daily cap of 80 asylum seekers and said it would allow just 3,200 migrants to transit the country per day. This caused a chain reaction of other countries closing their borders. Greece has recalled its ambassador to Austria in protest.
Austria's Chancellor Werner Faymann has accused Greece of "behaving like a travel agency," simply allowing the migrants to pass through, without protecting its borders or processing the asylum seekers. According to Faymann, "Last year, Greece took in 11,000 asylum seekers, and we took in 90,000. That can't be allowed to happen again." AFP and AP and Guardian (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Feb-16 World View -- Surprise victory of reformists in Iran signals bloody power struggle thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Feb-2016)
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US debating military response to China's buildup in South China Sea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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US Navy and Marine Corps leaders have warned that China's rapid military buildup in the Pacific Ocean could force the United States to move ships and forces in response.
China's advances might require the United States to reassess its attack submarine fleet. The Navy has said for years that 48 attack submarines is what it needs to carry out its mission, but that may no longer be enough According to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson "That number is really based on analysis from 2006," but with China's recent developments, "that's becoming a more urgent situation." The Navy already wants to have 60 percent of its planned fleet of 308 US warships committed to the Pacific by 2020.
Many concerns have been raised about the vulnerabilities of American aircraft carriers. ( "23-Feb-16 World View -- China's military buildup neutralizes America's aircraft carriers")
Adm. Harry Harris addressed these concerns in testimony to Congress:
"The DF-21 [anti-ship ballistic missile], which they have developed, and the DF-26 [intermediate range ballistic missile], which they're developing, could pose a threat to our carriers. I think, though, that our carriers are resilient and we have the capability to do what has to be done if it comes to that. ..."Short of war, I'm aware of the threat. I'll pay attention to the threat, But that is not going to prevent us from flying, sailing or operating wherever international law allows."
In an article entitled "Trump-Effect: Fox News Channel’s Brand Takes 50% Hit Among Republicans, Breitbart journalism reporter John Nolte says that the Fox News Channel (FNC) "pro-Rubio/GOP Establishment bias" is as manipulative and dishonest as the mainstream media's left-wing bias, and that Republican are losing respect for FNC. According to Nolte:
"My job is to monitor the mainstream media, which is something that eats up about 14 hours of a day that begins at 6 a.m. when the cable morning shows begin. Lying next to me, my good sport of a wife suffers through about an hour of 'Morning Joe,' whatever they call that left-wing garbage fire on CNN, and the rest. Out of habit, before I head to my desk, without really asking I always ask, 'You want me to put it on Fox?' ...'No,' she replied. 'I’m done with Fox News.' ...
When I asked my wife why she is 'done' with Fox News, her answer was simply, 'They’re just like all the rest.'"
In fact, CNN's president Jeff Zucker claims that it's rapidly closing the gap with FNC, and hopes to surpass it.
But there are very good reasons why it will be impossible for FNC to lose its leadership position anytime in the foreseeable future. An analysis by Ad Week shows that Jeff Zucker is, if not lying, at least shading the truth by "blending ratings" in a way that doesn't make sense.
According to another media analysis at TheWrap:
"Last weekend marked 20 years since Fox News Channel's launch was announced, and CEO and Chairman Roger Ailes is probably quite pleased with the network’s anniversary numbers.Fox News has now been the No. 1 cable news network for 14 consecutive years after winning the month of January with a dominating performance that included last week’s GOP debate. Fox News’ streak began in Jan. 2002 when it surpassed CNN for the first time.
Ailes’ network beat CNN and MSNBC combined in total day viewers and had the top 14 individual programs in cable news among the key 25-54 age demo. 'The O’Reilly Factor' had its best month since November 2012 and finished as the No. 1 program in cable news, despite double-digit growth from 'The Kelly File.'"
The reasons why FNC cannot be beaten are based on demographics. Consider the following:
I've been following this issue off and on for over ten years, and except for an occasional blip it's always been the case that the number of FNC viewers was about equal to the sum of the numbers of viewers of all the other cable news stations combined. That makes perfect sense. FNC gets 50% of the audience, while all the other stations compete for the other 50%.
I watch all of these stations, on the left and on the right, and there's no question that FNC is much less biased than the others. Why? Because they don't need to be biased.
If CNN started becoming more balanced, say, broadcasting more news critical of the Obama administration, then CNN would lose part of its audience to MSNBC, and vice-versa. But FNC can broadcast a balance of left-wing and right-wing opinions because their viewers have no place else to go. Even if a Republican president takes office in January, FNC can still broadcast some news critical of the president, knowing that all the other stations will be vitriolicly attacking him.
The Trump situation has presented a novel problem for FNC, because it's caused a split among its viewers. The mainstream media stations have no such problem, because they're uniformly against Trump, and they have an opportunity to grab viewers away among people like Nolte's wife, who see FNC as becoming as biased as all the others.
But that bias is only temporary. The Trump situation is going to be resolved in a few weeks, one way or another, and then I expect all the right-wing viewers to go back to FNC, and the left-wing viewers to be divided once again among the hash of left-wing mainstream media news stations. Breitbart BigJournalism and Advertising Week and The Wrap
Qatar-based al-Jazeera America permanently shut down its web site on Friday, and will go off the air on April 14.
Al-Jazeera began as an Arabic news channel in 1996 targeting 370 million Arabic speaking viewers. In 2006, the company launched Al-Jazeera English, an English language broadcast, targeting the rest of the world, and available as an internet stream. I started watching it almost as soon as it was available because it had the best coverage of Mideast news, and I needed this kind of "inside baseball" understanding of Mideast issues in order to do Generational Dynamics analyses.
Is Al-Jazeera biased? Of course it is. But it's no more biased than the New York Times or NBC News. The BBC was vitriolicly anti-American during the George Bush presidency, but now they're totally in the tank for President Obama.
As I've written in the past, the interesting thing about al-Jazeera's biases is their attitudes towards the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. Hamas is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, so al-Jazeera loves Hamas, and hates the Palestinian Authority. In fact, my perception is that al-Jazeera hates the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas even more than it hates Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu.
In August 2013, Al-Jazeera America (AJAM) debuted as a cable television network. They got immediate cable network buy-ins by paying $500 million to Al Gore for his defunct Current TV cable channel. That was a total waste of money that probably doomed AJAM from the start.
I had been looking forward to AJAM, but I was very disappointed when it came on the air. It was practically indistinguishable from CNN and MSNBC and the other left-wing channels. It even had the same formats -- a morning breakfast show, bland news shows during the day, and an evening newscast. Furthermore, it was frustrating, because they blocked the Al-Jazeera English internet stream to the United States so that it couldn't compete. I thought it was crazy. Why would anyone watch AJAM, when they could get exactly the same news on the mainstream news channels?
The only time that AJAM was worth watching was for two hours per day, when they broadcast the al-Jazeera English newshour. I made sure to record those shows, because they contained valuable information that I needed. However, even that was frustrating whenever some event occurred in Washington, and AJAM switched to it, just as CNN, MSNBC, FNC, and all the others switched to it. As I said, I thought that was crazy.
As time went on, AJAM got better and better because they had low ratings and had to cut many of the bland news shows, broadcasting al-Jazeera English programming instead.
AJAM does claim that it had the best quality American journalism and documentaries, and in many ways they are right. But no matter how good they were as journalism, their news programs still all had the same left-wing slant as all the other mainstream channels.
The company hasn't announced what will happen to their cable channel after April 14. I'm hoping that they'll simply broadcast Al-Jazeera English for 24 hours a day. This is a unique offering that only they can provide, just as BBC World News channel has a unique offering that only they can provide. Al-Jazeera and Variety and Al-Jazeera
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Feb-16 World View -- Breitbart says that Fox News is taking 50% hit because of Trump thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Feb-2016)
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More on China's New Silk Road through the 'Caspian Trade Corridor'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Georgia's Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili has concluded negotiations to award a construction firm the contract to build a deep water port in the town of Anaklia, a beach resort on the Black Sea.
The Anaklia deep water port is thought to be an important piece of China's "New Silk Road" for transit of commercial goods between Europe and China. Several weeks ago we described in detail the "Caspian Trade Corridor," illustrated in the map shown above. ( "21-Jan-16 World View -- Azerbaijan forced to choose between Russia and Turkey")
The route from China to Europe was tested in December. A train from eastern China traveled first through Kazakhstan. Then the cargo traversed the "Caspian Corridor" when the containers were put on ships and taken across the Caspian Sea to Baku, Azerbaijan. In Baku, the cargo was put back on a train, which traveled on to Europe via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. Despite what looks like a complicated route, this ground transportation alternative is much shorter than the sea route that it replaces.
However, the awarding of the contract for the Anaklia port contained a big surprise. Early last year, seven companies submitted proposals to design and build the port, and in June Georgia's government selected two candidates as "preferred applicants." It was expected that Power China, backed by the Chinese government, would win the contract.
The surprise was that the contract was awarded to the other applicant, the Anaklia Development Consortium, backed by funding from Georgian bank TBC. A key figure in the winning consortium appears to be Timur Korchava, a Russian billionaire of Georgian descent. Furthermore, it appears that Korchava was backed by Russian government support.
It's thought that the Russian government has two major objectives in supporting this project. First, Russia would like to force China, as much as possible, to continue transporting goods through Kazakhstan and then through Russia. And second, Russia will use the port to deliver goods to Armenia, where a Russian military base is stationed.
Whatever Russia's motives, it appears that the Russians have snatched victory from the Chinese. Jamestown and Georgia Online (13-Dec-2015-Trans) and Ros Business Consulting (Russia, 13-Dec-2015)
China and Cambodia conducted joint naval exercises for the first time on Friday. Three Chinese navy warships with 737 Chinese sailors took part, along with about 70 Cambodian sailors. Last week, both Chinese and Cambodian officials said that there would be military exchanges, friendly football matches, as well as a joint drill. According to Cambodia’s deputy navy chief Vice Admiral Vann Bunneang, "This will be a big cooperation and joint exercise training in rescue operations. This is to boost readiness for when boats sink and natural disasters occur." Very jolly.
China is the largest donor of military aid to Cambodia, including jeeps, shoulder-fired rockets and helicopters, and help in running a Cambodian defense academy.
Although Cambodian officials bristle at suggestions that they're doing China's bidding, Cambodia has been the region's most reliable ally in disputes involving Taiwan and the South China Sea. Unlike many other southeast Asian countries, where students usually wish to learn English as a foreign language, Cambodian students are learning Mandarin Chinese. At a 2012 meeting of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Cambodia vetoed attempts to even discuss the South China Sea issues.
Admiral Tea Vinh, commander of the Royal Cambodian Navy, revealed that Cambodia was in negotiations to buy two 140-metre heavy warships armed with modern weapon systems from China. "The Royal Cambodian Navy needs two warships but communication is in process between the two defence ministries. We will not use them for war – we will only use them to protect our territorial sovereignty. Cambodia should not be looked down on by its neighbors." This is the sort of thing that China always says, although it's not clear to me how Cambodia will "protect [their] territorial sovereignty" without ever going to war.
The ranking Chinese navy officer, Rear Admiral Yu Manjiang, said said that China's visit to Cambodia showed their warm ties and was "like visiting a sibling's home." That reminds me of a 2011 remark by Pakistan's ambassador to China Masood Khan who said that Pakistan's relationship with China was "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight."
Here in these Generational Dynamics World View articles, we try on a regular basis to discern who will be who's ally in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. These days, it seems pretty clear that Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and India will be allied with the United States and Russia, while Pakistan and Cambodia will be allied with China. Phnom Penh Post and Radio Free Asia and The Diplomat and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Feb-16 World View -- China and Cambodia hold military exercises amid South China Sea tensions thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Feb-2016)
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Tsipras: 'Greece will not become a warehouse for souls'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Since Macedonia closed its border last week to Afghan migrants, about 12,000 people have been stranded in Greece. Migrants had been coming from Turkey, across the Aegean Sea into Greece, and then across the border into Macedonia, on the path north, usually with the intention of reaching Germany or Sweden. But some countries have begun closing their borders to migrants, creating a chain reaction of closed borders that have left thousands stranded in Greece with no way to continue north.
Theoretically, migrants from Syria and Iraq, which are at war, should be allowed to pass through the border to Macedonia, while migrants from other countries are considered "economic migrants," and not eligible for asylum in Europe. However, Macedonia is blocking even them, because of border closures further north.
On Thursday, some 400 migrants from Syria and Iraq left a transit camp provided by Greece, and are heading for the Macedonian border to demand to be allowed through.
Some 4,000 migrants continue to arrive in Greece every day. Authorities said 40 buses were stopped at various points along the country’s main 500-kilometer (310-mile) highway leading north from Athens. Traffic has also been slowed by tractor blockades by farmers protesting bailout measures.
Greek officials are not hesitating that this is a growing catastrophe that is getting worse every day, with no end in sight. It's expected that the flood of refugees will grow larger as warm weather approaches. AP and Bloomberg
Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras is threatening retaliation if other EU countries do not do their share in accepting refugees:
"We will not accept turning the country into a permanent warehouse of souls with Europe continuing to function as if nothing is happening.Greece will not agree to deals (in the EU) if a mandatory allocation of burdens and responsibilities among member countries is not secured."
Tsipras did not specify what "deals" would be in jeopardy. According to Tsipras:
"We will not tolerate that a number of countries will be building fences and walls at the borders without accepting even a single refugee. Greece will demand the mandatory participation of EU countries in the relocation of refugees. ..."We did and will continue to do everything we can to provide warmth, essential help and security to uprooted, hounded people. We will either be in a union of common rules for all or everyone will do they please: we will not accept the latter."
Greece's migration minister Yannis Mouzalas echoed Tsipras's words: "Greece will not accept becoming Europe’s Lebanon, a warehouse of souls, even if this were to be done with major (EU) funding."
The European Union Home Affairs Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos, a Greek politician who formerly served as a Greek foreign minister, emphasized that something must be done quickly:
"In the next 10 days, we need tangible and clear results on the ground. Otherwise there is a risk that the whole system will completely break down.We all have the responsibility to step up our efforts to apply the agreed European solutions. There is no time for uncoordinated actions. ...
Moving to the pressing situation in our neighborhood: the route along the Western Balkans. The situation is very critical. The possibility of a humanitarian crisis is very real and very near.
We cannot continue to deal through unilateral, bilateral or trilateral actions; the first negative effects and impacts are already visible.
We have a shared responsibility – all of us – towards our neighboring states, both EU and non-EU, but also towards those desperate people.
We cannot continue with the wave-through policy – the European Council was crystal clear on this.
And we cannot put caps on how many asylum seekers we receive. This is simply not according to EU and international rules. I have reminded Member States today, that everyone must respect and apply the rules."
The reason that Avramopoulos specified a "10 day" time limit, is because on Monday, March 7, there is an EU-Turkey summit meeting at which demands will be made on Turkey to reduce the flow of migrants.
On the other hand, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán warned that an uncontrolled migrant influx brought the risk of "terrorism, criminality, anti-Semitism and homophobia." He referred to the alleged New Year's Eve sexual attacks by migrants in Cologne and said, "I have four daughters and I don't want my children to grow up in a world where Cologne could happen." Reuters and European Commission and Kathimerini and Deutsche Welle
Austria's Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz on Wednesday led a one-day conference in Vienna to make agreements about controlling the influx of refugees along the "Balkan route." Austria and nine other nations -- Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia -- were invited to the conference. The meeting targeted policies related to Greece and Germany, but both of those countries were conspicuously not invited.
According to Kurz:
"We invited all of the countries along the Balkan route that will be affected by our decision. ...We want to slow the influx. So far, refugees have been brought to Central Europe. Now we simply cannot keep up with the numbers. We have set a limit of 37,500 for this year; that is still a lot compared to other European states."
On Wednesday, Greece issued a formal protest to Austria, and on Thursday, Greece recalled its ambassador to Austria for consultations.
Greece's foreign ministry said that a meeting of Balkan nations was "rooted in the 19th century," referring to the politics of the 1800s, and said that the recall was designed to "safeguard friendly relations between the states and peoples of Greece and Austria."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that she is adamantly opposed to further border fences in eastern Europe:
"Do we really want to give up already and close the Greek-Macedonian-Bulgarian border, with all the consequences this would have for Greece and the European Union as a whole and therefore the Schengen area?"
There have been some unconfirmed reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel threatened retaliation against east European nations in the form of vetoing further aid. Deutsche Welle and AFP and The Local - Germany
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Feb-16 World View -- Threats of retaliation abound as Europe's refugee crisis deepens thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Feb-2016)
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China sends fighter jets to South China Sea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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China continues to speed up its rapid military buildup in the South China Sea. In recent days, satellite imagery has shown that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is deploying advanced surface-to-air missile systems to Woody Island in the Paracels chain, and also that China appears to be building an advanced high-frequency over-the-horizon radar system.
Now, US administration officials are confirming that satellite images taken on February show that China is deploying Shenyang J-11s (“Flanker”) and Xian JH-7s (“Flounder”) fighter jets on Woody Island.
As usual, China is claiming that the advanced military buildup of missiles, radar, and warplanes is purely "defensive." According to China's state media:
"Non-militarization of the islands in the South China Sea has been a common wish expressed by all parties in this region -- including China. Top Chinese officials did say the recent reclamation of islands and reefs is mainly aimed at providing better services at sea. However, a commitment to non-militarization doesn't mean zero military facilities. The US seems to be interpreting China’s commitments in ways that suit itself."
I'm not even sure what this means, other than it's doubletalk to say that a military buildup isn't a military buildup.
Friedrich Nietzsche said, "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." In 1860, America's southern states started the Civil War, even though they had no chance against the North, which was three times the size. In 1941, Japan started the Pacific war, even though they had no chance against the US, which was five times the size.
Many Chinese believe that the US is too weak or too tied down in the Mideast to fight back. This is insanity, and a disastrous historical mistake. China is following the path of Adolf Hitler, militarizing, annexing other countries' regions, promising "Peace in our time" in one way or another. The Chinese are headed in the same direction as Hitler. Fox News and Shanghaiist
My recent article, "23-Feb-16 World View -- China's military buildup neutralizes America's aircraft carriers", generated spirited debate in comments by web site readers over just how vulnerable American aircraft carriers are to China's military.
With regard to China's advanced high-frequency over-the-horizon radar system, "anthonyvop" wrote, "The idea of a 'radar system' giving China control is laughable. I have radar on my boat. Does that mean I have control over Biscayne Bay?" I don't know whether he was joking.
"Nemeshisu" gave a detailed analytical summary of China's military preparations for war with the United States:
"The Chinese have been preparing for the last 30 years or so to get all 'Tsun Tzu' on ourass by making our strengths into weaknesses. The Chinese have:- An entire army group of hackers, PLA Unit 61398, ready to wage cyber warfare which has routinely hacked into our networks (and crashed them) for decades.
- The demonstrated capability to deliver anti-satellite weapons on target which means they can blind us, cut our communications and collapse our economy.
- They, along with Iran and Russia, have super-cavitating torpedoes. We don't have this tech, nor a defense against it. While our torpedoes travel at about 50 knots, these torpedoes travel at 250 MPH. They don't touch the water as they travel in a cocoon of bubbles and are capable of ripping a carrier in half from the kinetic energy of the impact alone, even if the warhead fails to detonate. You cannot maneuver or deploy countermeasures against these torpedoes.
- They have an anti-ship ballistic weapon, the DF-21. We also don't have this tech nor a defense against it. These ballistic weapons are specifically designed to attack our carriers at stand-off ranges of 1500-2000 miles. Our carriers will not be able to operate in the western Pacific, much less get into range to launch airstrikes when warheads rain down on the battle group with pin point accuracy and at thousands of miles an hour.
- When we deregulated export restrictions on 5 axis milling equipment (thanks conservatives in Congress), the Chinese got the tech to mill silent submarine propellers. Prior to this, their screws were noisy and easily detectable. The first lathes to leave our shores went to China and within a couple of years, they replaced the screws on their entire submarine fleet. If you want to know what they can now do, google "The uninvited guest: Chinese sub pops up in middle of U.S. Navy exercise, leaving military chiefs red-faced"
- Over the last 35 years, the Chinese acquired from Israel all kinds of advanced weapons technology, from advanced missile systems to tank armor technology and advanced avionics for their shiny new air force. Israel sold this tech that we shared with them on the condition that they not sell it to others, much less to our potential adversary. Such awesome allies them Israelis. I wonder if the conservatives asked Bibi about this last time he was here."
"FederalFarmer" pointed out how vulnerable American aircraft carriers are:
"One mistake that is commonly made is preparing to fight the last war again. The situation we face with China is very different from that we faced with Japan. We need to start now to prepare to fight them.We can beat China, but we need to stop underestimating them and start preparing to fight them. That means lowering our level of involvement in the Middle East. We need to get out of the INF treaty. We need to build more frigates and destroyers which have both AA and ASW capability. In the initial phases of fighting, we will probably be pushed back to Guam. We need to be able to both defend Guam from missile attack and transport weapons across the Pacific while we play to our strengths and blockade China from a distance.
[An aircraft carrier can be simultaneously attacked] by hundreds of guided missiles fired on several axis of attack including ballistic warheads. A carrier's defenses can be overwhelmed by volume.
In China, we are probably going to be fighting the most dangerous and strongest adversary since Nazi Germany."
"MarchHare" responded that American aircraft carriers may be better off than many people think:
True enough, if you have "hundreds of guided missiles" using hundreds of launchers to fire at every ship from every compass-point at the same time, but that's unlikely, even for China... US Navy Carriers are easily the best-protected, hardest to hit target an enemy will ever face.... Just because China or anyone lobs a missile at it, doesn't mean we won't have a say in whether it hits or not. But I'm not saying the carrier is invulnerable either...Warships are complicated things... Some have survived insane amounts of damage, while others were lost to relatively mi nor hits by one or two lucky shots... No ship is unsinkable, I won't dispute that... But saying a ship-class is obsolete because it can be sunk is just as stupid a conclusion as saying a ship can't be sunk... War is risk and loss... That's why we have more than just one aircraft carrier in commission... This is (as I pointed out in my original post) a very old story, and some nations have already discovered that listening to know-nothings costs lives...
The British once had a huge carrier force and decided to go-small with "through-deck-cruisers" ski-jumps and Harrier jump-jets... The result was the Falklands which was a close call for Britain... They probably would have lost if a Liberal government was in power or if they had managed to scrap HMS Hermes before Thatcher saved it and rushed it back into commission, but what they had (Two light carriers) was still barely adequate to the job... It was even worse for Argentina, BTW, because they only had one carrier and no combat aircraft ready to deploy from it... Even being relatively close to the Falklands gave them no advantages, and this was 1980, not 1940... Since that time, Britain is now building a new generation of carriers because they realized that, if you don't have a carrier, you don't go to war... period... Right now, there is no substitute for carrier air-power, and a radar set does not change that... If carriers weren't the answer, China wouldn't be building their own fleet of carriers... Remember that..."
If we want to understand what a war between the US and China would look like, then we have to look at history.
Here's something that I've heard many people say: "If Hitler had won World War II, then everyone in France would be speaking German today." The assumption is that Germany would take control of France and force everyone to speak German. But that doesn't make sense. Germany didn't win the war, but Russia did win the war in eastern Europe, and took control of much of eastern Europe. By the same logic, the people of Poland should be speaking Russian, but they aren't.
Things like cultures, languages and national boundaries are remarkably resilient. That's not to say that they never change, but they almost never change.
Hitler had promised a 1,000 year empire. But he overlooked the generational paradigm. If he had won the war and taken control of France and other countries, then he would have had a mess on his hands during the 1960s generational Awakening era, with massive student riots across the continent. By the generational Unraveling era of the 1990s, his empire would have fallen apart, just as the Soviet empire fell apart. My guess is that if Hitler had one the war, the world today would look pretty much the same as it does now.
So when China launches war against the United States, it will launch hundreds of missiles at American cities and bases. There will be millions of refugees fleeing their homes, and many will die of starvation. "Survivalists" who stock up on food, medicines and water will do the best, at least for a while. Many others will be killed by marauding gangs of thieves and murderers.
But the US will survive and fight back. Of course, American missiles will inflict similar damage on Chinese cities. After several weeks, all the intercontinental missiles will have been expended, and by that time the ground war will have begun. But for China, it won't be a ground war with the US. It will be a war with several of its neighbors.
There are very few countries in the world with recent experience fighting an external war. These include the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and perhaps a couple of others. China has no experience fighting an external war. Even worse, China will almost certainly be fighting an internal civil war at the same time, just as it did during World War II.
So, not only will the war not end overnight, as some people seem to think; it will actually go on for several years, probably around five years. I've estimated that the war will kill around 3-4 billion people worldwide. That will include deaths from nuclear weapons, missiles, disease, famine, and ground war.
After the war ends, there will be about 3-4 billion people still alive to rebuild the world. At the end of every major "world war" in history, there's always been a big international conference with officials from all the nations of the world, who will adopt measures to make sure that no such war ever occurs again. And it doesn't happen again, until it does.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Feb-16 World View -- Readers comment: Who would win a war between the US and China? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Feb-2016)
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Macedonia closes borders to thousands of stranded Afghan migrants in Greece
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Thousands of Afghan migrants were left stranded in Greece on Monday, after Macedonia abruptly closed its borders to Afghan. This was just one of several border closing actions taken by European countries, threatening open borders, one of the core principles of the European Union.
It's only 53 days into the new year, and figures published by the International Organization for Migration showed that 102,547 people had arrived in Greece and another 7,507 in Italy so far this year, even though it's still winter. In 2015, the threshold of 100,000 was not reached until the end of June. This number could double as warm weather arrives, and it's possible that well over a million new refugees will flood into Europe this year.
Since November, European officials are attempting to deal with the refugee crisis by distinguish between refugees from war zones in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, versus economic refugees from other countries. Thus, the Balkan countries have been permitting only migrants from these three countries to pass through their borders to go north to Germany, Sweden, and other European nations where they plan to apply for asylum.
Macedonia was also following this policy until Monday, permitting migrants only from those three countries to cross the border from Greece. However, Macedonia abruptly announced that Afghans would no longer be permitted to cross, and some 12,000 were left trapped on the Greek side of the border on Tuesday.
This situation was triggered by announcement on Friday by Austria that it would introduce a cap of only 80 asylum-seekers per day, and would only let 3,200 migrants pass through to Germany each day. 3,200 migrants per day is still more than one million per year.
Austria's announcement started a chain reaction that led to Macedonia's announcement to close the border to Afghans.
Austria's announcement led Montenegro also to announce that it was closing its borders. Montenegro has not in the past been on the main route used by migrants, but "If the European countries dealing with the consequences of the migrant crisis opt to close their borders, what else is there for a country like Montenegro to do?" asked prime minister Milo Djukanovic at a meeting in London.
Macedonia's announcement triggered riots along the border in Greece. Greek police have been removing hundreds of migrants from a camp at the country's border with Macedonia and putting them on buses bound for Athens, where they will be housed in an army-built camp.
EurActiv and The Local - Austria
Belgium is implementing border controls with France, after France's announcement that it would close a portion of its refugee camp in Calais.
Migrants whose goal is to reach Britain usually travel to Calais, the point in France closest to Britain. From there, they hope to hitchhike on the truck traffic traveling through the tunnel to Britain under the English Channel.
France has set up a notorious camp for migrants that has become known as "The Jungle," where they can sleep in tents and receive free hot meals. There are currently about 4,000-5,000 migrants living in the camp, of which 205 are women and 651 are children.
Last week, officials in France announced that they would evict about 1,000 migrants living in southern part of The Jungle.
France's interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve said the eviction would be done "progressively, by persuasion and with respect for people's dignity." Evicted residents have been told they must choose between moving into refitted shipping containers set up in the camp or to a migrant accommodation center elsewhere in France. Many migrants are balking at leaving, and are determined to stay.
Belgium officials fear that migrants evicted from the Jungle will simply move on to Belgium hoping to cross the English Channel by boat. Because thousands of migrants entering Belgium is a possibility, officials are imposing border control. According to Belgium's interior minister Jan Jambon, "They're already on their way here." BBC and France 24
According to one analyst, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel didn't show it, but she's furious with Austria for imposing further border controls, because doing so left her alone on the refugee issue.
Merkel is a strong proponent of the principle of open borders, a right that's at the core of the European Union. The Schengen Zone is a group of 26 European countries that permit visa-free border crossings among them. However, one country after another has been imposing border control, under the "emergency situation" terms of the Schengen rules. But with the mass of refugees growing, it's feared that the emergency will last a long time.
East European countries, in some cases with strong cultural memories of being dominated by the Ottoman Empire, have imposed the strong border controls. Greek officials are complaining bitterly, because they end up being responsible for the thousands of migrants that enter Greece each day. There are fears that the entire Schengen Zone system could collapse.
A study by Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation has found that if the Schengen Zone collapses, it will cost the European Union 1.4 trillion euros over the next decade, mainly because the EU's already weak economic growth would be severely impacted by introduction of new import fees and trade restrictions.
Beyond the economic implications, the political implications of the refugee crisis are enormous. There may be two million migrants coming into Greece this year. Migrants who are blocked from taking one route will take another. Many will pay a great deal of money to people smugglers to get them to Germany over back roads that aren't being patrolled. These are problems that the European Union may not be equipped to handle. It's a real question what will be left of the European Union's core principles by the end of 2016. Deutsche Welle and Reuters and VOA and Deutsche Welle
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Feb-16 World View -- Refugee crisis puts European Union's core principles at risk thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Feb-2016)
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John Kerry and Russia announce a new Syria peace plan
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Just days after satellite imagery showed that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly militarizing the South China Sea by deploying advanced surface-to-air missile systems, new imagery shows that China appears to be building a an advanced radar system potentially giving China control of the entire South China Sea.
China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries, and continues to use belligerent military operations to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing their claims are groundless and that they would lose.
The imagery is of Cuarteron Reef in the Spratly island chain. This reef is one of those that China has expanded into an artificial island using land reclamation, for the apparent purpose of building military bases. The advanced missile and radar systems would broaden China's control over the entire region, according to an analyst:
"If it is an HF [high-frequency or over-the-horizon] radar, then it would enormously boost China’s capacity to monitor ships and aircraft in the South China Sea. Cuarteron is the logical place for such an installation because it is the southernmost of China’s features in the Spratlys, meaning that it would be the best place if you wanted early warning radar to give notice of ships or planes coming up from the Strait of Malacca and other areas to the south such as Singapore.This would be very important in a Chinese anti-access area denial strategy that sought to reduce the ability of the U.S. to operate freely in the South China Sea, including bringing forces up through the South China Sea in case of any future crisis in Northeast Asia."
The US Navy has been challenging China in the South China Sea by conducting "freedom of navigation" air and sea patrols throughout the region, including within 12 miles of China's artificial islands. This has infuriated the Chinese, but US Navy officials argue that to do nothing would be to allow China to prevent any foreign naval vessel from traveling through the South China Sea, which is one of the biggest commercial routes in the world.
US Vice Admiral Joseph Aucoin is suggesting that it would be "valuable" if Australia and other nations could join the US in these freedom of navigation patrols. According to Aucoin:
"What we're trying to ensure is that all countries, no matter size or strength, can pursue their interests based on the law of the sea and not have that endangered by some of these actions.It's up to those countries, but I think it's in our best interests to make sure that those sea lines remain open, I'll leave it at that."
Countries such as China, Iran and Russia have spent years and a great deal of money developing integrated systems of surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, submarines, surface ships and aircraft whose purpose is to prevent US aircraft carriers from having freedom of movement, whether in the Persian Gulf, the eastern Mediterranean, or the South China Sea.
According to the report from the Center for a New American Security:
"Operating the [aircraft] carrier in the face of increasingly lethal and precise munitions will thus require the United States to expose a multi-billion dollar asset to high levels of risk in the event of a conflict. An adversary with A2/AD [anti-access/area denial] capabilities would likely launch a saturation attack against the carrier from a variety of platforms and directions. Such an attack would be difficult – if not impossible – to defend against."
In order to avoid risk, a carrier would have to operate so far away from the battlefield that the battlefield would be out of range that the aircraft could travel without refueling. The report concludes that the United States can either "operate its carriers at ever-increasing ranges ... or assume high levels of risk in both blood and treasure," and suggests that the days of the aircraft carrier may be ending. Center for a New American Security and Washington Post
I have to admit I'm totally baffled by what's going on here. Two weeks ago, US Secretary of Defense John Kerry announced a new Syria peace plan, after conferring with the Russians. ( "12-Feb-16 World View -- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria")
The peace plan made absolutely no sense whatsoever for reasons I gave at the time -- Russia and Syria will continue bombing what they claim are terrorist groups, which are pretty much all Sunnis in Syria, and the plan would not apply to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front). And sure enough, the "cessation of hostilities" collapsed in less than a week. In fact, the peace plan actually worsened the hostilities, since it provided cover for substantially increased bombing and fighting from all groups.
Well, on Monday John Kerry consulted with the Russians and announced a new peace plan -- and it contained exactly the same elements as the old peace plan. What the hell do these people think they're doing?
I listened to the analysts, and I heard only two things mentioned that make this different from the previous peace plan:
A spokesman for the opposition rebels says that they won't stop fighting unless Russia and Syria completely stop bombing. Well, they said that they're going to continue bombing.
In fact, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad responded to Monday's peace announcement by saying that he would respect the truce, except that he reserved the right to attack "terrorists":
"It's about stopping the fire ... but also about preventing the terrorists from using the ceasefire or the cessation of hostilities to improve their position. It's about preventing other countries, especially Turkey, from sending more recruits, more terrorists, more armaments."
In other words, al-Assad has no intention at all of respecting the truce, since he considers all Sunnis to be terrorists, including women and children.
And then there are the YPG Kurds fighting Sunnis north of Aleppo, driving tens of thousands to flee from their homes and head for the border with Turkey. Turkey considers the YPG Kurds, who are allies of al-Assad, to be linked to the PKK Kurds, who are internationally recognized terrorists, and therefore also terrorists. Turkey has been shelling YPG Kurd positions for over a week now, but wasn't a part of Monday's peace agreement announcement. So who's going to be the first to stop fighting: Turkey or the YPG Kurds? The answer is: Neither.
So we have a "cessation of hostilities" which is almost identical to the last one, with the same effect: No one is going to cease hostilities. I have little respect for John Kerry and these politicians, but I can understand how they could do this dance once. But a second time? I'm baffled. CNN and NPR and Foreign Policy
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Feb-16 World View -- China's military buildup neutralizes America's aircraft carriers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Feb-2016)
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Bomb explosions strike Assad strongholds in Syria as Kerry speaks of 'provisional' peace
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India has deployed almost 10,000 troops in a massive show of force to the province of Haryana on Sunday to quell riots that are creating crisis conditions across Haryana and in the capital city Delhi. Haryana surrounds Delhi on three sides, allowing the Haryana riots to target Delhi's economy. There have already been 10 deaths and hundreds of injuries.
The riot group are the Jats, a caste or a caste-like ethnic group with a population of 80 million people across India. In Haryana province, they make up 29% of the population. They're rioting because several of the poorer castes by law are given preferential treatment for jobs and education, and so the Jats are unable to get jobs themselves.
This issue has been simmering since the 1990s, when India's Supreme Court ruled that the poorer castes have to be given preferential treatment. Various political candidates have repeatedly made promises to the Jats to improve the situation, but the politicians forget their promises once in office. The Jats claim that they're now doing what they have to do to be heard.
The protesters have damaged equipment that brings water to New Delhi, which is now facing a water crisis. With much of Delhi now without water, the Haryana government has rushed paramilitary and technical team members of the Irrigation Department to restore water delivery.
In addition, the protesters have brought much business in Delhi to a halt by blocking major roads and highways in and out of Delhi, and damaging railway tracks to prevent rail traffic. In other actions, the protesters have burned down homes and vandalized vehicles. India Today and Times of India and Reuters
The most prominent lower class in India are the Dalits. But India's government classifies the Jats as "Other Backward Class" or OBC.
Thanks to a 1990s Supreme Court decision, India's government has had to set up a "reservation system" in Haryana that gives preferential treatment to certain poorer castes and classes, so that they can more easily obtain jobs and educations.
The Jats are politically and economically better off than the groups in the existing reservation classes, which is the reason given why they haven't been admitted to the reservation classes. But since the poorer castes are getting preferential treatment, many Jats are unable to get jobs, even if they're better qualified than another candidate who happens to be in the reservation group.
So that's what the protests are about. The Jats want to be added to the reservation group. Currently, 50% of Haryana's population are in the preferential reservation group. Adding the Jats, which comprise 29% of the population, would mean that almost 80% of the population would be given preferential treatment. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that that won't work. Scroll (India) and Times of India
When one peace plan collapses, it's good news, because a new peace plan can begin. The peace plan ("cessation of hostilities") that US Secretary of State John Kerry announced last week collapsed just two days ago. On Sunday, Kerry met with Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and then made this announcement to the press:
"We have reached a provisional agreement in principle, on the terms of the cessation of hostilities, that could begin in the coming days. It is not yet done, and I anticipate that our presidents, president Obama and president Putin, may well speak somewhere in the next days or so in order to try to complete this next task."
I really don't know whether I should think that Kerry is a complete fool for running around making these idiotic statements, or whether I should instead feel sorry for Kerry because he's required to run around making these idiotic statements. How many peace agreements has Kerry announced in the past that have collapsed within a few days? I've lost count. How may peace agreements has Kerry announced that have succeeded? I can't recall a single one. What the hell is this guy doing?
At any rate, in the same time frame that Kerry was announcing peace, there were two massive terrorist attacks, each involving multiple explosions, in two separate districts, both government controlled and both highly secure and heavily protected by the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
A series of blasts, a car bomb and two suicide bombers, ripped through the Sayyida Zeinab suburb of Damascus, killing at least 83 people and wounding more than 170. This suburb is a Shia stronghold.
Earlier in the day, two car bombs exploded in the Wadi al-Zaha suburb of Homs, killing at least 34 people. This suburb is an Alawite stronghold. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is a Shia/Alawite.
The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has taken credit for both terrorist attacks. ISIS has targeted both districts in the past, to prove that they can strike anywhere in Syria they want. Scotsman and Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Feb-16 World View -- Delhi in crisis as India sends thousands of troops to quash Jat riots thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Feb-2016)
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Shifting alliances across the Mideast
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There never was even the slightest chance that this latest peace plan for Syria had any chance of succeeding, as I wrote when it was first announced. ( "12-Feb-16 World View -- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria")
In fact, as usual, the farcical peace plan did more harm than good, because it provided motivation for the violence to increase.
Russian and Syrian warplanes have increased their pounding of so-called "terrorists" -- by which they mean all Sunni civilians, whom they apparently think of as cockroaches to be exterminated -- using barrel bombs to flatten entire Sunni villages and using missiles on schools and hospitals.
Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Russia's president Vladimir Putin, denied that Russia had bombed hospitals and schools this week, despite numerous reports from all sorts of independent sources, including Human Rights Watch (HRW), Doctors without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF), Nato, the US State Dept., and various reporters. According to Peskov, all of these sources are lying in unison to harm Russia. Peskov told the BBC that the only reports he believes are the ones that come from the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria.
Now that's a real laugh. Al-Assad is the alleged war criminal, committing genocide on Sunnis by means of missiles, Sarin gas, barrel bombs laced with chlorine gas, and any other mass weapon he can get his hands on. So Peskov doesn't trust the independent sources. He trusts only the alleged war criminal. This is the kind of crap we always get from Russian officials, though I suppose it's only right that the only person they trust is a war criminal, since the Russians are war criminals themselves.
Then there's the Turks. They've chosen this period following the peace agreement to begin shelling Kurdish YPG militia positions in Syria north of Aleppo.
Well, they do have an excuse. There was a huge terrorist attack in Ankara on Wednesday. No one claimed credit for a while, and the two possible perpetrators were thought to be the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) or the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Both ISIS and the PKK are considered to be terrorist groups by Turkey, the US, and much of the West.
Then on Friday, the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), a Kurdish terror group linked to the PKK, took credit for the Ankara bombing. The Turks claim that the YPG militias in northern Syria are linked to the PKK that carries out terrorist attack in Turkey, so the Turks aren't about to stop shelling YPG positions any time soon.
We also heard this week from some of the Sunni Arab nations. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar all said this week that they're ready to send their ground troops into Syria -- to fight ISIS. By the way, that's the reason that everyone gives -- they're fighting ISIS.
It's very hard to grasp the sheer size of the catastrophe that's unfolded in Syria since 2011, when Sunnis started peacefully demonstrating and Bashar al-Assad started exterminating them like cockroaches.
The Syrian civil war has cost an estimated 500,000 lives and made some 11 million people refugees. Millions have ended up in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey and almost a million have fled to Europe. For instance, more than 1 million people are considered to be under siege throughout Syria in a war that pits numerous groups against one another.
And al-Assad and Russians keep making it worse -- more and more deaths, more and more refugees, more and more misery. They're acting like they're going to achieve victory in Syria, but they don't have a snowflake's chance in hell of doing so.
Even if they capture more ground, this is a generational Awakening era in Syria, and they will never get the Syrian opposition to surrender. Nor will they get ISIS to surrender. What they will do is increasingly isolate and panic Turkey, which will ally with the Saudis and other Arab states to end up in a full-scale Mideast war, as Generational Dynamics has been predicting for over a decade. Washington Post and CBS News and US State Dept. and Jerusalem Post
A web site reader wrote this comment yesterday:
"Mr. Xenakis, for quite some time you have been predicting a split between the U.S. and Turkey which will result in the two countries becoming enemies. Since Turkey and the U.S. are both members of NATO, I could never understand how this could realistically happen until now. The wedge that will irrevocably separate Turkey and the U.S. will be the issue of U.S. support for the Kurds in Syria/YPG/PKK.Here is a quote from [analyst] Charles Lister [appearing in The Telegraph]: 'It is quite extraordinary that Obama administration policy seems to be favoring a Kurdish militia group that is incontrovertibly linked to the terrorism-designated PKK over and above a fellow Nato ally, Turkey.'"
You say that you could never understand how this change could realistically happen until now, and I have to say that the same is true for me. The bizarre thing about this generational methodology that I use is that it produces analyses and forecasts that often seem not to make sense until they come true, and they always come true, and that's always astonishing. (If you'd like to read more about how generational reasoning works, read this: "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement").
The quote from Lister is right. Indeed, one can go further. The Obama administration is fighting on two conflicting sides in Syria. The administration is cooperating more and more with al-Assad and Russians, who are allied with the YPG Kurdish militia in Syria. The administration is conducting airstrikes in support of the YPG in eastern Syria, where they're fighting ISIS, and the administration is passively supporting the YPG in Aleppo, where they're a clear enemy of a Nato ally, Turkey.
If this shows nothing else, it shows how President Obama, who is always driven to do the opposite of what President Bush would do, has run into one disaster after another in foreign policy.
However, Dear Reader, perhaps you think I'm being unfair. I came across a piece by Patrick Cockburn in the Independent in which he explains that Obama's policy is not only coherent, but it's been right all along.
The argument is that Turkey has been allowing people to pass through Turkey into Syria, where they can join ISIS. The Obama administration a year ago decided that if Turkey wasn't going to close the border on its side, then he would support the YPG in closing the border from the Syrian.
So much stuff today makes me laugh out loud. So Obama's whole policy in Syria is to close the border with Turkey??? Obama has been unable to close the border with Mexico. Greece can't close the border with Turkey. But Obama's found a way to close the border between Syria and Turkey? Where do these people come up with this stuff?
The fact is that the Turks are under attack from PKK Kurds within Turkey, and they believe that they're under attack from YPG Kurds in northern Syria.
President Obama believes that he can push Turkey as hard as he wants, and Turkey will still be America's ally. But Turkey has other allies, notably the Saudis and other Sunni Arabs. As the web site reader quoted above suggests, when Turkey is forced to choose who its allies are, America won't be one of them. Telegraph (London) and Washington Post and Independent (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Feb-16 World View -- Latest Syria peace plan officially fails thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Feb-2016)
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US warplane attack on Libya raises question of ground troops
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US warplanes struck a suspected ISIS training camp in Libya, killing at least 40 people, possibly including Tunisian-born Noureddine Chouchane, a "leading ISIS facilitator." The camp was in Sabratha in far western Libya, near the border with Tunisia.
Chouchane was linked to two major terrorist attacks in Tunisia last year. In March, two gunmen infiltrated security at the well-known Bardo Museum in Tunis, right next door to the parliament building, where they took and killed 22 hostages, with 50 people injured. In June, a gunman disguised as a tourist opened fire at a Tunisian hotel in Sousse, killing 37 people. In both cases, the victims were mostly foreign tourists. The evident intent of the attacks was to damage Tunisia's tourist industry.
The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has been expanding powerfully in Libya, in the chaos that followed the removal of Muammar Gaddafi from power. Libya is considered a launchpad for attacks not only on African targets, but also on European targets. According to American officials, the death of Chouchane would represent a blow to ISIS's ability to launch such high-profile attacks. The National (UAE) and Washington Post and CNN
Friday's attack on the ISIS base by US warplanes comes days after president Barack Obama said that there would be such attacks on ISIS:
"With respect to Libya, I have been clear from the outset that we will go after ISIL wherever it appears, the same way that we went after Al Qaeda wherever they appeared."
However, no one believes that an airstrike on an ISIS camp is going to have much of an effect on the overall situation in Libya. In fact, we've already seen in Syria and Iraq that attacking ISIS with just air power is largely ineffective unless supported by ground troops. Friday's attack will certainly have no effect on the ISIS stronghold in Sirte.
ISIS has continued to grow increasingly powerful in Libya. Since arriving in Libya from Syria, ISIS has set up bases around Sabratha and farther east at Derna and Sirte. Sirte has become its Libya headquarters, with the Pentagon estimating that 5,000-6,000 fighters are now in the country, many from abroad. From Sirte, ISIS has now occupied 240 kilometers of coastline and last month attacked the nearby oil ports of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, setting storage tanks on fire.
As we've reported several times, there are plans for a Western military invasion into Libya to attack ISIS. ( "29-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France, Italy continue plans for Libya invasion against ISIS") The invasion, if it occurs, would take place in early March.
The plan was that the invasion would be launched after the signing of a UN-sponsored "peace deal" aimed at creating a unified representative government in Libya, merging the two separate governments now in existence. However, attempts to get agreement from the two governments to merge have fallen apart. Vice News and Sputnik News (Moscow)
Wikileaks has released a classified document describing European Union plans to expand the existing Operation Sophia into a ground invasion.
Operation Sophia, named after a baby born on a German frigate to a rescued Somali woman in August, was launched in October of last year as one of the European Union's measures to slow the tidal wave of refugees crossing the Mediterranean to Europe. The operation is targeted at human traffickers. Naval patrols board smugglers' boats in international waters, after they've left the Libyan port, remove the migrants, and remove the boat from service. With fewer boats available for smuggling, the flow of migrants is reduced.
Operation Sophia has been somewhat successful in that many of the wooden boats that human traffickers have been using to smuggle refugees have been taken out of service. Wooden boats are now being replaced by rubber dinghies, which smugglers have been importing in quantity from China, transshipping them through Malta.
Operation Sophia is awaiting the right circumstances to transition to a new phase of the project, to move from operating in high seas to operating in Libyan Territorial Waters. Eventually, this would lead to ground troops within Libya.
However, this new phase of Operation Sophia is also being put on hold, because operating with Libyan territorial waters would require the approval of Libya's government, which evidently is not going to be given. Malta Today and International Business Times and Defense World
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Feb-16 World View -- US warplanes strike suspected ISIS training base in Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Feb-2016)
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New terrorist attacks cause further splits in US-Turkey relationship
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Six soldiers were killed in southeastern Turkey on Thursday by a roadside bombing that hit an armored military vehicle. Like Wednesday's huge attack in Ankara, this appeared to be an attack targeting military personnel. Turkish officials blame both attacks on the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party).
The PKK is a separatist group that has conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Turkey since 1984. They've frequently attacked military targets in the past. Turkey's government and the PKK had agreed to a ceasefire three years ago, but it collapsed last year, after a July 20 terrorist attack in the city of attack on Suruç killed 33 people, mostly young pro-Kurdish activists. Erdogan declared war on the PKK, and it appeared that Turkey was slipping into chaos as violence spread across the country.
Since July, there have been months of military operations, curfews, attacks and hundreds of dead and injured, especially in southeast Turkey, which is the heart of the Kurdish separatist movement and home to much of the PKK. CNN
No one has claimed responsibility for Wednesday's terror attack in Ankara, in which 28 people, at least 20 of them military personnel, were killed, with 60 injured. Many people suspect that it was perpetrated not by the PKK, but by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
The question of responsibility is causing a further split between Turkey and the US. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, blames the attack on the PKK and also on the YPG, the Kurdish militias fighting in Syria. According to Erdogan:
"Even if the leaders of YPG or PKK deny being involved in the attack, there is evidence proving they were behind it."
Erdogan would like to provide that evidence to the US and the west, and finally settle on a joint policy to fight Kurdish terrorism.
Erdogan has for months been saying that the YPG is a terrorist organization with links to the PKK. This presents a problem for US-Turkey relations, since the YPG is the force that the Obama administration is counting on to fight ISIS on the ground in Syria.
However, the YPG militias around Aleppo aren't fighting ISIS, and are nowhere near ISIS. They're fighting so-called "moderate" rebels who, incidentally, are also supposed to be US allies. The YPG militias, backed by massive Russian and Syrian airstrikes that are targeting civilian neighborhoods, schools and hospitals, are creating tens of thousands refugees that are headed for the border with Turkey.
Already, Turkey has set up 8 refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border. Turkey is accusing the YPG militias of being the foot soldiers not in the fight against ISIS, but instead allied with the Bashar al-Assad regime and the Russians with a strategy of forcing tens of thousands of new refugees to enter Turkey, as a kind of weapon of war.
So from Turkey's point of view, there is the PKK's long history of terrorist attacks in Turkey, and there is the YPG's strategy to force tens of thousands more refugees into Turkey, and according to Erdogan, there is the evidence linking the YPG and the PKK to Wednesday's horrific terror attack in Ankara.
Erdogan points out that when the Charlie Hebdo attack occurred in Paris a year ago, there was widespread international sympathy for France, but when Turkey suffers one terrorist attack after another, the West doesn't seem to care, and some even blame Turkey, the victim.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this public attitude towards Turkey is very interesting. Long-time readers know that ten years ago I predicted, based on a generational analysis, that Russia and Iran would become America's allies, and the Sunni Muslim countries would become America's enemies, as everyone is forced to choose sides in the approaching world war. Ten years ago, that prediction seemed preposterous, and today no one is more astonished than I am to watch it come to pass.
What's particularly startling to me is when people reading my articles post comments making Bashar al-Assad into some sort of hero.
Bashar al-Assad is much worse than ISIS. When ISIS tortures someone or forces the people in a village to pay taxes or be killed, the West is horrified. But when al-Assad performs mass torture, or uses barrel bombs to kill everyone in a village, then no one seems to care. When ISIS attacks a school or hospital, everyone is horrified. But al-Assad and the Russians attacked several schools and hospitals in the last week alone, and many more in the past. As I've written several times in the past, al-Assad is the genocidal monster of the modern age.
People ask me how I could say that we could be allies with al-Assad when I call him a genocidal monster. Well, we can see it happening right before our eyes, can't we. And I always point to what happened in World War II. Josef Stalin was responsible for the mass starvation, torture, and mass slaughter of tens of millions of people. Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Pol Pot and Mao Zedong were the greatest genocidal monsters of the twentieth century, and yet Stalin was our ally because we had to choose. That's the way the world works, Dear Reader.
So Erdogan would like to see greater support from the US and the West, but Generational Dynamics predicts that that's not the way the world is going. We can expect Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni nations to become further estranged from the US, and we can expect the US to be more closely allied with Iran, the great sponsor of international terrorism, as well as Bashar al-Assad and Russia. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and BBC and Today's Zaman and Washington Post
The massive attack on the city of Aleppo by Syrian and Russian warplanes pounding civilians with missiles and barrel bombs, in conjunction with ground attacks by YPG militias, is said to be a Russian army tactic known as the "Grozny model."
Turkish security officials say that in Russia's 1990s war with Chechnya, Russian warplanes bombed schools and hospitals in order to create a refugee crisis, and to empty the urban residential areas. Once that was achieved, heavy weapons could be deployed to eradicate opposing forces, entailing widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure.
It's becoming increasingly apparent that the purpose of the "Grozny model" strategy being followed by Russia and al-Assad is to create a de facto Kurdish state in northern Syria along the border with Turkey. This strategy is completely intolerable to Turkey, and even if it succeeded, it would certainly lead to continued war.
However, even without succeeding, this Russian strategy is leading to war. Turkey's tanks have been shelling YPG positions in Syria, as we've reported several times in the last week.
And now there are new reports that hundreds of armed anti-Assad rebels are crossing from Turkey into Syria. News reports don't explain where these rebels are coming from, but the assumption is that they entered Turkey from other parts of Syria. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Guardian (London) and EU Observer and Guardian
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Feb-2016)
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Erdogan slams US, UN policy, renews demand by Syria 'safe zone'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A car bomb exploded on Wednesday in Ankara, Turkey's capital city, during rush hour at a busy intersection, near vehicles carrying military personnel. The explosion occurred in what was supposed to be a super-secure area in central Ankara that contains Parliament buildings and military headquarters. 28 people were killed and 61 others were injured in the attack.
No one has claimed responsibility for the attacks, and there are two possible perpetrators: the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) or the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
According to one analyst, "There's definitely many reasons why Turkish reaction is going to be fierce."
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded angrily:
"Our determination to respond in kind against such attacks against our unity and future from outside and inside is even more strengthened through such attacks. Turkey will not hesitate to use its right to self-defense anytime, anywhere, and in all situations. ...Turkey's losses in its struggle against terrorism are challenging its patience."
The PKK is a separatist group that has conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Turkey since 1984. They've frequently attacked military targets in the past.
Turkey was shocked last October when ISIS conducted a terrorist attack in Anakra killing 97 people and injuring hundreds more. It was referred to as the worst terrorist massacre in Turkey's history, or as "Turkey's 9/11." ( "13-Oct-15 World View -- Turkey is seen as increasingly unstable after Ankara massacre")
Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and CNN and Reuters
During the last week, as Kurdish militias in the YPG have gotten to within 25 kilometers of Turkey's border, Turkey has been shelling YPG positions. The US administration has been asking Turkey to stop the shelling, but after Wednesday's terror attack in Ankara, nothing like that has any chance of happening. According to Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, "At the moment, I have difficulty in understanding America, which still hasn’t called or still cannot call the PYD and the YPG as terrorists and which says, ‘Our support for the YPG will continue.'"
Erdogan has for years been demanding help from the US and UN to set up a "buffer zone" or "safe zone," a strip of land in northern Syria along the border with Turkey. As we wrote last week ( "10-Feb-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey head for clash on Syria border"), Erdogan appears to be taking advantage of the tens of thousands of Syrian refugees massed on Turkey's border by setting up refugee camps in Syria, effectively creating a de facto buffer zone.
In response to Wednesday's attack in Ankara, Erdogan said: “Oh America! You did not say ‘yes’ to a ‘no-fly zone.’ Now the Russian planes are running wild over there, and thousands and tens of thousands of victims are dying. Weren’t we coalition forces? Weren’t we supposed to act together?”
On Wednesday, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed support for Erdogan's idea for a no-fly zone, saying that it would be a sign of good will that could lead to a peace agreement Syria.
Remember when the US and Russia announced a "cessation of hostilities?" It feels like it was months ago, but actually it was only six days ago. ( "12-Feb-16 World View -- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria") And now, after Wednesday's attack in Ankara, it would seem that the cessation of hostilities idea is gone. Hurriyet (Ankara) and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Feb-16 World View -- Car bomb attack on military in Ankara Turkey kills 28 thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Feb-2016)
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China promises 'Peace in our time' at ASEAN conference
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China's preparations for war appear to be speeding up, as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly militarizing the entire South China Sea, developing a network of military bases across the Paracel and Spratly islands.
New satellite pictures show that dredging operations are creating more and more artificial islands in the Paracels and Spratlys, and that the islands that have already been constructed are being armed to the teeth with such things as anti-submarine warfare helicopters, runways, and fuel bunkers. China's new military buildup appears to be particularly targeting American submarines. With multiple military bases across the entire South China Sea, a helicopter fleet would be unconstrained by fuel range or limited numbers of ship-borne landing berths, creating a continuous and contiguous web of surveillance and response capability. Such a web would also have utility in surface ship and aerial combat strategies in the region.
New satellite imagery shows that within the past week China's military has deployed advanced surface-to-air missile systems and radar systems on Woody Island, part of the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea. This has substantially escalated the level of military tension in the South China Sea, as China prepares for war with its neighbors and with the United States.
The Diplomat and Fox News and Bloomberg
The publication of photos showing China's rapid and aggressive military buildup across the South China Sea comes just as the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was meeting at Sunnylands in Rancho Mirage, California.
A major topic of discussion at the ASEAN summit was China's South China Sea policy. China is following an extremely dangerous policy that almost always leads to a major war, with the most obvious historical example being Hitler's annexation of Czechoslovakia and Poland.
China is claiming an enormous region as its sovereign territory, and has been annexing regions historically belonging to Vietnam, the Philippines, and other countries.
At the summit on Tuesday, President Obama gave the opening speech and said:
"Here at this summit, we can advance our shared vision of a regional order where international rules and norms, including freedom of navigation, are upheld and where disputes are resolved through peaceful, legal means."
This was thought to be a message to China not to continue its military buildup in the South China sea.
In addition, vice-Admiral Joseph Aucoin, the commander of the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet warned China not to fly jet fighters from runways on its new man-made islands in the disputed South China Sea, because that would be destabilizing to the whole region. Aucoin said, “We are unsure where they are taking us. So we are going to sail, fly, operate throughout these waters. ... Like we have been doing for so long,"
The Obama administration is claiming a bit of a moral victory, because the Chinese agreed to sign a joint statement at the end of the summit:
"7. Shared commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to the threat or use of force in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law and the 1982 United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS);8. Shared commitment to maintain peace, security and stability in the region, ensuring maritime security and safety, including the rights of freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the seas, and unimpeded lawful maritime commerce as described in the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as well as non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of activities;"
These statements are farcical because China has already said that it will ignore them, despite having committed to them. China has already rejected "legal and diplomatic processes" to settle disputes, and is obviously ignoring the pledges of "non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of activities."
They say that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes, and we see China repeating the mistakes of Adolf Hitler. After annexing Czechoslovakia, Hitler thought that the UK was too weak to challenge him.
Nazi Germany was then thoroughly humiliated in defeat in which its entire infrastructure was destroyed, split into four regions controlled by four different countries, not permitted to reunite for almost 50 years, and forced to apologize for its behavior for many decades after that.
Now China is doing pretty much the same thing, annexing other countries' regions, with Obama as the modern day Neville Chamberlain, to whom China is promising "peace in our time." It remains to be seen who will win the war this time. White House and Reuters and White House
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Feb-16 World View -- China speeds rapid military buildup in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Feb-2016)
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China's massive lending binge: four times as much as forecast
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Monday's missile attacks on hospitals and schools in Azaz, killing dozens, are being called "war crimes." The missile attacks appear to have been deliberate. The hospitals were run by Doctors without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF).
The U.S. State Department condemned the airstrikes, blaming the Syrian regime headed by President Bashar al-Assad for the attack on Azaz. Azaz, which is north of Aleppo near the border with Turkey, has been under massive attack by Kurdish YPG militias, and by the Syrian and Russian air forces.
Syria's al-Assad regime has a history of frequently deliberately targeting civilians, including schools and hospitals, especially in the Aleppo region:
So deliberate missile attacks by al-Assad on hospitals and schools would be standard operating procedure for al-Assad.
In a separate incident on Monday, four missiles from Russian warplane air strikes struck another Doctors Without Borders hospital, this time in Idlib in northern Syria. CNN and BBC
China is expected next month to announce another 10% increase in its annual military budget, at a time when China's economy has been slowing, indicating that the military remains a top priority. China has been exponentially increasing its military budget every year for years, as part of its aggressive multi-year military buildup.
There's something new this year -- a major restructuring of the military, ordered by the president Xi Jinping. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is being restructured into five military battle zone commands. The Northern Command will have the Korean Peninsula as its main objective, along with Russia's Far East and Mongolia; the Western Command is geared towards Central Asia and Indian subcontinent; the Southern Command's objective is southeast Asia and South China Sea; the Eastern Command is targeting Taiwan and Western Pacific; and the Central Command acts as general strategic reserve. There is no single command dedicated to Russia.
As part of revamping its cold war-era command structure, the PLA is cutting 300,000 jobs. Reports indicate that this has caused quite a bit of unhappiness in the ranks. According to one one senior Beijing-based Western diplomat, "Where are the 300,000 going to go? There's no information. Are the SOEs [state-owned enterprises] supposed to employ them?"
In the restructuring, the navy is taking on greater importance, for two reasons. First because of increased tensions in the South China Sea, where China has been annexing regions historically belonging to Vietnam, the Philippines, and other countries. And second, because Taiwan's elections in January brought to power a government unsympathetic to Beijing. ( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election")
The Eastern Command in the new command structure appears to be specifically aimed at Taiwan. Beijing's policy is that if Taiwan takes any move whatsoever towards independence, then China will invade Taiwan. China has indicated that it will continue to tolerate Taiwan's current ambiguous relationship with Beijing, but that it's beginning to run out of patience. So the objective of the new Eastern Command may well be to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan. Reuters and Aviation Week and Focus Taiwan
China's banks gave new loans in January for 2.51 trillion yuan ($385.6 billion). This was about four times the lending in December, and also about four times as much as had been forecast by analysts.
As we wrote last week ( "9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs"), China has been selling of US Treasuries and other assets denominated in foreign currencies in a desperate attempt to keep the yuan (renminbi) currency from weakening into a death spiral.
These new figures suggest that these desperation measures also extend to "printing" trillions of new yuan. Normally "printing" currency has the result of weakening (devaluing) the currency, and so it may be that these two measures are meant to offset each other: The debt binge would inject new money into the weakening economy, which the sale of US Treasuries would attempt to hold the line against further yuan devaluation.
January's lending binge has not been this high since the 2009 global financial crisis. At that time, China was applauded for "saving the world" by flooding China with trillions of newly printed yuan in order to allow its economy to continue growing. Bloomberg and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Feb-16 World View -- Missile strikes on Syria's hospitals and schools called 'war crimes' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Feb-2016)
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John Kerry suggests that al-Assad and the Russians are delusional
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Turkey continued shelling the positions of Kurdish YPG militia in Syria on Sunday for a second day. YPG militias in Syria continued to move closer to the border with Turkey, and Turkish officials claimed that Turkey was responding to mortar fire from the Kurds in Syria.
The YPG is the military wing of the Kurds in Syria, and has links to the PKK in Turkey, which is considered a terrorist organization by both Turkey and the US. Turkey considers the YPG to be a terrorist organization as well, and is in bitter disagreement with the US which considers the YPG to be an ally in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
According to Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, the shelling will continue until the YPG meets its demands:
"The YPG will immediately withdraw from Azaz and the surrounding area, and will not go close to it again. It will not attempt to shut their corridor ever again. It will not have delusions of using Menagh base to attack the opposition."
A YPG spokesman said that Davutoglu's demands will be ignored.
Davutoglu said that when US Vice President Joe Biden visited Istanbul last month, they agreed on some issues:
According to Davutoglu, "When Biden asked about the latest developments, I told him there has been no development regarding these three fundamental principles."
France is calling for an immediate end to all Syrian, Russian and Turkish violence around Aleppo, including airstrikes and shelling. It seems unlikely that anyone will do as called for.
The United States is pressuring Turkey to end the shelling of the YPG in Syria. Other nations are expressing alarm that the shelling will sink last week's "peace agreement" between the US and Russia. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al-Jazeera and Anadolu and dpa
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar have all announced that they would send troops to Syria to fight ISIS if appropriate. There has been talk of a joint troop operation by Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
According to last week's peace agreement, a full ceasefire is supposed to begin in a few days, and the nations involved were supposed to start to wind down their hostilities. ( "12-Feb-16 World View -- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria")
Instead, all the nations involved have been intensifying their hostilities. There are two ways of looking at this.
Some analysts take a Pollyannaish view that everyone is getting one last burst of violence out of their systems so that they can honor the cease fire.
Others take the view that everyone is using the ceasefire agreement as a cover for more violence, and there is no chance at all that the ceasefire will be honored.
We'll see in a few days which of these views is correct. Anadolu and NPR and Al Monitor
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke at the 2016 Munich Security Conference on Saturday, and chastised Russia and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad by name for using "free-fall bombs" to kill civilians, and suggested that they were delusional for thinking they could win the war:
"And the Security Council Resolution has demanded that “all parties immediately cease any attacks against civilians.” That, too, has not happened to date. And indeed, the violence by the regime, as we all know, went up. Free-fall bombs are being used, which are not precise. We all know civilians are being killed. So we hope this week can be a week of change.Now, some have argued that the reason humanitarian access has been denied and has – and there’s been this bombing is because Assad and his allies, including Russia, might believe that by defying the will of the international community, they can win the war. That is a proposition that is being discussed. If that is what Russia and Assad think, then I believe they would be missing the lessons of the last five years. The Syrians who have rejected Assad have endured four years of shelling, barrel bombs, gas, Scud missiles, chemical attacks, torture; and they may be pushed back here or there, but they are not going to surrender. I don’t believe there’s anybody who believes they will. And the countries that have supported Assad and the countries that have opposed him say they’re both committed to continuing that. That is not a recipe, obviously, for a resolution.
So it is critical for all of us to take advantage of this moment to make this cessation of hostilities work. And one thing I would say is that the more successful people are in standing up Assad, at the same time, the more successful they will be in attracting more jihadis to the fight. That’s the perverse reality of what has happened there."
Very often when Kerry speaks, he's so afraid to offend anyone that his speech becomes completely muddled, sometimes even worthy of being a skit on Saturday Night Live.
But in this speech he was very explicit -- accusing al-Assad of using missiles, Sarin gas, chlorine gas, torture and missiles on civilians -- and suggesting that if al-Assad thinks he can win the war then he must be delusional.
He also makes the point that we've been making for years -- that young jihadists from around the world have come to fight al-Assad resulting in the creation of ISIS, and that they'll continue to come as long as al-Assad keeps attacking innocent Sunnis in Syria. US State Department
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Feb-16 World View -- Turkey doubles down on shelling Kurds in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Feb-2016)
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey plan joint ground troop incursion into Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Turkey's military shelled Kurdish YPG militia targets in northern Syria near the Turkish border on Saturday. The shelling continued for two hours. The attacks were triggered by the YPG capture of Menagh, a former military air base near the town of Azaz. This is today's military escalation du jour following last week's "peace agreement" between the US, Russia, and other international leaders. ( "12-Feb-16 World View -- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria")
There has been an increasingly bitter disagreement between Turkey and the United States over the role of the YPG in Syria. The YPG have links to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) in Turkey, a separatist group that has conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Turkey since 1984. The stated goals of the YPG are to fulfill the PKK's separatist goals in Syria by creating a de facto Kurdish state from west Syria to east Syria and into Iraq, along Syria's northern border with Turkey. Turkey says that the YPG is also a terrorist organization. The United States designates the PKK as a terrorist organization, but says that the YPG are not.
Although the Kurds are mostly Sunni Muslims, the Kurdish militias are politically on the far left, and are allied with Russia and the Alawite/Shia government of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The US has supplied arms to the YPG in its fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), after ISIS brutally attacked the Kurds in northern Iraq last year. American support for the YPG in Syria has led to vitriolic attacks by Turkish leaders on America. ( "11-Feb-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan splits further with US, blaming it for a 'sea of blood'"
Turkey has repeatedly warned that a Kurdish attempt to take control of the area on the Turkish border north of Aleppo, which would be a strategic victory in the YPG goal of a Kurdish state, would be entirely unacceptable to Turkey, and would trigger a Turkish military response. Earlier in the day, a Turkish military source that "PYD/PKK" forces had shelled Turkish targets.
According to Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu:
"Today retaliation was taken under the rules of engagement against forces that represented a threat in Azaz and the surrounding area.We will help our brothers in Aleppo with all means at our disposal. We will take those in need but we will never allow Aleppo to be emptied through an ethnic massacre. ...
Those who say PYD is not a terrorist organization either do not know the region, or have ill intentions.
The terror organization PYD is in cooperation with Russia and Assad, and is attacking Turkmens [in Syria]. If there is a threat against Turkey, we will strike PYD like we did Qandil [PKK's HQ located in Iraq]. ...
"Somebody needs to draw a line against Russia and raise their voice."
US State Dept. spokesman John Kirby responded by saying that the US would continue full support of the YPG in Syria:
" "We have urged Syrian Kurdish and other forces affiliated with the YPG not to take advantage of a confused situation by seizing new territory. ...Turkey and the YPG share a serious threat of ISIL poised just to the east of the Azaz corridor. We continue to encourage all parties to focus on this common threat, which has not subsided, and to work towards a cessation of hostilities."
There was no statement from Russian officials regarding the attack on the Kurds, but it's pretty certain that Russia will retaliate, possibly even bombing military targets on Turkish soil. This would be a major further escalation. Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Today's Zaman (12-Feb) and Anadolu Agency
Saudi Arabia is sending 8 to 10 warplanes to Turkey's Incirlik air base, saying that they will be used in cross-border attacks on ISIS in Syria. (Everyone says that they're only attacking ISIS, no matter who they're attacking.) Incirlik air base is already being used by the U.S.-led coalition with Britain and France in cross-border attacks on ISIS.
In addition, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are discussing plans for a joint operation to deploy ground troops into Syria to fight ISIS on the ground.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir said, "There is discussion on whether ground troops are needed against IS. If a decision is taken to send in special units against IS, Saudi Arabia is ready to take part."
Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said,
"Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been in favor of a ground operation in the fight against Daesh. We have been saying in all meetings of the [US-led anti-ISIL] coalition that there should be a comprehensive strategy. We have said if such a strategy is put in place, we, as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, can join a ground offensive."
The discussion of Saudi and Turkey ground troops in Syria has drawn sharp criticism from within Turkey itself, from Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP):
Turkey will not be a proxy to execute scenarios of violence and atrocity drafted in foreign capitals. Otherwise the outcome could be catastrophic. ...
A ground operation without the approval of Parliament could cost us a homeland."
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major war between Shias and Sunnis, between Arabs and Jews, and between different ethnic groups. Almost every day there's a new event that moves the Mideast along that path. It may not be very long now. Today's Zaman (Ankara) and Today's Zaman
Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia died unexpectedly on Saturday while on a hunting trip. He was a conservative member of the Court, appointed in 1986 by Ronald Reagan.
There has been hours of wall-to-wall news coverage of the reactions to Scalia's death. As a public service to my readers, I'm providing you with the entire story:
Republicans: Scalia's death is an enormous shock, and a profound loss to the Court and the entire nation.
Democrats: We wish Scalia's family the best.
Republicans: The next president should pick a successor next year.
Democrats: Obama should pick a successor immediately.
That's it. That's the entire content of the news coverage of Scalia's death. Now you can go back to reading about Kanye West and Taylor Swift. Washington Post and E! Online
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Feb-16 World View -- Turkey's military strikes Kurdish positions in Syria, north of Aleppo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Feb-2016)
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Nato deploys warships to Aegean sea to deter people smugglers
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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European Union foreign ministers have given Greece a three-month ultimatum to remedy "deficiencies" in controlling the influx of migrants, most from Turkey. The European Commission is threatening to remove Greece from the Schengen Zone of visa-free travel if Greece fails to remedy the problem by mid-May.
The "deficiencies" found by the European Commission are that Greece failed to properly register and fingerprint migrants when they arrived at the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea.
The rules about registering migrants comes from the Geneva convention, which was adopted by the EU in the "Dublin II" regulation of 2003. As we reported in August of last year, many migrants are refusing to be fingerprinted when they arrive in Greece, because then they would have to apply for asylum in Greece. If accepted, they could be required to stay in Greece, and if rejected, they could be deported back to their countries of origin. Instead, most migrants prefer to reach the wealthier countries such as Britain or Germany, where they can take advantage of more generous benefits.
When migrants began arriving in Lesbos and other Greek islands last summer, Greece was overwhelmed by something like 3,000 migrants per day. The migrants were stuck on the islands, and Greece was under tremendous pressure from the EU because of the allegedly deplorable conditions for the migrants on the islands. So Greece instituted a ferry service from the islands to Athens, to comply with the EU request.
However, then the migrants traveled from Athens to the border with Macedonia, and started a tsunami of migrants to the north, with most headed for Germany. So readers may recall the drama last year, as one country after another began to close their borders, forcing the flood of migrants to take another route. ( "20-Oct-15 World View -- As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold")
Greece never did comply with EU demands that every migrant be registered and fingerprinted while in Greece, and now the EU is setting a three-month ultimatum.
Removing Greece from the Schengen Zone would be a new financial disaster for Greece, as it would cripple Greece's tourist industry and also make it a lot more difficult for Greece to visit other countries. Furthermore, tens of thousands of migrants would be stranded in Greece, as other countries completely closed their borders.
Greece's financial crisis is in a kind of remission, as it's been out of the headlines for a while. But Greece still owes 200 billion euros in loans and 50% of young people are unemployed. Capital controls on banks are still in place, and Greek people can only withdraw a maximum of 60 euros per day from their bank accounts. So the financial crisis is far from over, and the mixture of the financial crisis and the refugee crisis has the potential to be explosive. AFP and Kathimerini (Athens) and EU Dublin II Regulations
The refugee crisis has brought the European Union to almost total political chaos. Even though it's still mid-Winter, there are still about 2,000 migrants arriving from Turkey every day, and that number is expected to increase substantially in the warm Spring weather.
The EU has tried one desperate measure after another, such as suspending Schengen Zone rules in several countries and imposing border controls. The most prominent measure was an agreement in November to give $3.2 billion to Turkey in exchange for controlling the flow of migrants to Greece. However, that money hasn't yet been paid, and few people believe it will work anyway.
The EU has also promised to pay Greece one billion euros to set up and operate relocation camps for migrants. Greek officials say that that money will only be enough for six months or so, and anyway, that money hasn't been paid yet either.
So now the EU is saying that the refugee problem is all Greece's fault, and is trying a new desperate measure -- threatening to eject Greece from the Schengen Zone. Few people believe that idea will work either. Business Insider and Kathimerini
One more measure being adopted to try to slow the flow of migrants from Turkey to Greece is being taken not by the European Union but by the Northeast Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato).
Three Nato warships are arriving in the Aegean Sea to deter people smugglers transporting migrants from Turkey to Greece. Their jobs will not be about "stopping or pushing back refugee boats," according to Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg. Instead, they will be primarily tasked to provide Turkish and Greek coastguards and EU border agency Frontex with information on human trafficking and criminal networks operating in the eastern Mediterranean.
The advantage of using Nato ships is freedom of movement. Greek ships have to stay in Greek territorial waters, and Turkish ships have to stay in Turkish territorial waters. But Nato ships can travel in either.
Theoretically, the Nato ships will not participate in "search and rescue" operations. If they spot a migrant ship in trouble, then they will notify the Greek or Turkish coast guards, and will only take action if it's required immediately to save lives. If refugees are taken on board, then the plan is to return them back to Turkey, something that Turkey has not yet agreed to.
According to Amnesty International, Nato ships MUST carry out immediate search and rescue operations:
"Any NATO ships that witness a boat in distress must provide immediate life-saving assistance. Hundreds of refugees, including many children, have already died this year attempting the treacherous journey across the Aegean.In no way must NATO forces become yet one more barrier between refugees and the international protection they are legally entitled to.
Intercepting refugees attempting to reach Europe and pushing them back to Turkey – where 2.5 million are already hosted – would be a serious violation of their right to claim asylum, and would fly in the face of international law."
The mission will be performed by Nato's Maritime Command Standing Maritime Group 2, which is under German command, and is comprised of five ships from different allies. Three ships are being deployed immediately, with Denmark and the Netherlands also planning to participate in the mission. BBC and Foreign Policy and NATO Maritime Command and Russia Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Feb-16 World View -- Increasingly desperate European Union threatens Greece over refugee crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Feb-2016)
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The vitriolic hatred of Bashar al-Assad
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Russia, the United States, and other parties meeting in Munich reached an agreement on the Syria war on Thursday. Not all details are known, but press reports indicate that the following are the terms:
It was just two weeks ago that peace talks began in Geneva. ( "25-Jan-16 World View -- Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva".) Those peace talks collapsed the day after they started, largely because the anti-Assad groups did not want to participate.
So here's the situation:
Tens of thousands of Syrian refugees continue to flee from Aleppo, as Russian airstrikes slaughter large numbers of civilians, and as Syria, Iranian and Hezbollah troops continue to encircle the town, preparing for the final siege and mass slaughter. There are half a million civilians living in Aleppo, and Russia says that they're all "terrorists," so the slaughter is going to continue under this farcical "cessation of hostilities."
You'd think that US Secretary of State John Kerry would be embarrassed to be part of this ridiculous farce, but as we've seen over and over and over, there is nothing too farcical to embarrass Kerry. Washington Post and LA Times
Described by one Russian analyst as a "little message" to Turkey, Russia has launched a massive surprise military exercise, involving thousands of troops and hundreds of warplanes across southwestern Russia for large-scale military drills. Up to 8,500 troops, 900 ground weapons, 200 warplanes and about 50 warships will be involved in the drills.
According to the announcement from Russia, the purpose of the exercises is to prepare for an unexpected event in Ukraine. The invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the occupation of Crimea in 2014 were preceded by massive exercises similar to the current one. The present snap exercises involve mass troop movement close to the Ukrainian border.
Instead, Russian military experts believe the present snap exercises are aimed primarily at Turkey and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, if they intervene in the fray. Russia's order to “prepare massive air raids and repel massive air attacks” does not seem to be directly aimed at Ukraine, which has a small outdated air force, incapable of carrying out “massive raids” deep into Russia to destroy strategically important targets.
The present snap exercise strongly resembles a massive combat prewar troop deployment aimed to take on Turkey if it attempts to intervene in Syria to curtail the Russian-led offensive in Aleppo, Idlib and Latakia provinces. Jamestown and Rudaw (Kurdish) and CBS
Whenever I write about Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad and his campaign of extermination of against Sunni Muslims, I almost always get comments from al-Assad acolytes and paid Russian internet trolls criticizing me and saying that the United States is the real criminal.
However, one of them gave the game away several days ago when he posted the comment:
"There are no Sunni 'civilians.'"
Another commenter referred to the opposition groups as "roaches."
This epithet is very familiar to me from having studied the 1994 Rwanda genocide. The Hutus were incited to slaughter the Tutsis with "You have to kill the Tutsis, they're cockroaches."
So, when someone says that "there are no Sunni civilians," then he means that all Sunnis are terrorists. And when someone says that they're "cockroaches," he means that they have to be exterminated.
What happened in Rwanda in 1994 is almost impossible for an ordinary human to believe. Prior to the 1990s, Hutus and Tutsis had lived together, intermarried, and had their children play with each other. When the 1994 genocide occurred, a Hutu might pick up a machete, go to the Tutsi home next door, or down the street, murder and dismember the man and children, rape the wife and then murder and dismember her. Almost a million Tutsis were killed.
In her book, World on Fire, Yale law professor Amy Chua describes how, living in the Philippines, her Chinese ancestry gave her family élite privileges not available to indigenous Filipinos. Her family was wealthy, with numerous Filipino servants who slept in the basement "sleeping on mats on a dirt floor [in a] place that stank of sweat and urine," living on less than two dollars a day. When her chauffeur murdered her aunt, the police investigated and found the motive to be "Revenge."
Amy Chua says, "Each time I think of [the chauffer] Nilo Abique -- he was close to six feet and my aunt was four-feet-eleven-inches tall -- I find myself welling up with a hatred and revulsion so intense it is actually consoling."
Amy Chua described what happened in the 1990s in the Bosnian war:
"My aunt's killing was just a pinprick in a world more violent than most of us ever imagined. In America we read about acts of mass slaughter and savagery; at first in faraway places, now coming closer and closer to home. We do not understand what connects these acts. Nor do we understand the role we have played in bringing them about.In the Serbian concentration camps of the early 1990s, the women prisoners were raped over and over, many times a day, often with broken bottles, often together with their daughters. The men, if they were lucky, were beaten to death as their Serbian guards sang national anthems; if they were not so fortunate, they were castrated or, at gunpoint, forced to castrate their fellow prisoners, sometimes with their own teeth. In all, thousands were tortured and executed."
Compared to this kind of hatred, the "hatred" that Americans talk about today are silly by comparison -- someone who opposes gay marriage is guilty of "hatred."
So you have to wonder what was going on in Rwanda and Bosnia. If you're going to kill someone, then just kill them. What's the point of having one of them castrate the other with his teeth? Where does this level of irrational, psychopathic behavior come from?
Well, it's part of the human DNA. It's not unique to any religion or ethnic group. Under the right circumstances -- particularly during a generational crisis war -- any human being might act that way. I've recently discussed this subject at length with respect to the act of rape as a common act of revenge during war. ( "7-Jan-16 World View -- German 'Code of Conduct' for women shows pendulum swing on gender issues")
We've seen other recent examples of this kind of behavior. Al-Qaeda and ISIS jihadists have been torturing and killing people, especially Shia Muslims, in this way. In Burma (Myanmar), Buddhist death squads have been torturing and massacring ethnic Rohingyas and other Muslims in the most brutal possible way.
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So now let's come back to Bashar al-Assad. It's been obvious to me since 2011 that al-Assad wanted to exterminate all Sunnis, because of his level of vitriolic hatred of all Sunnis. This was obvious when he started responding to peaceful protests by massacring entire Sunni villages and when his warplanes were bombing schoolchildren as they slept in the dormitories.
It was even more apparent in 2014 when 50,000 photos emerged of 11,000 men who had been tortured with electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale. They were similar to the images found in Nazi death camps after World War II. ( "22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria")
As I've said in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the greatest genocidal monster in today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot and Stalin. For years, he's been killing thousands of Syrian civilians every week with complete impunity, using Russian-supplied barrel bombs on civilian neighborhoods. And he's used sarin chemical weapons on civilians. He uses the most gruesome forms of torture on a personal, individual scale, as well as on a mass scale. There is no mass weapon of destruction, nor any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to satisfy his psychopathy.
And he's being supported in his genocide and psychopathy by Russia's president Vladimir Putin and Iran's supreme leader Seyed Ali Khamenei, who are guilty of supporting the same psychopath and genocide, making them war criminals.
Syria is in a generational Awakening era, meaning that the Syrian civil war should have completely fizzled out long ago. In a sense it has, because it's less a civil war than a proxy war. But what's kept it going is the intense, vitriolic hatred felt by one person, Bashar al-Assad, and by the willingness of his acolytes, Putin and Khamenei to support him.
And that's how I knew that the peace process 'proximity talks' would never succeed, and how I know that there will not be a ceasefire in Syria, as long as Bashar al-Assad is in power, and can count on the support of his acolytes and the war criminals Putin and Khamenei.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Feb-16 World View -- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Feb-2016)
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Pentagon deploying hundreds of troops to Helmand in Afghanistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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With the Taliban resurgent in Helmand province in Afghanistan, the US will deploy a force described as "battalion strength," probably around 800 troops, to the region to support the Afghan military. US troops have already been involved in combat against the Taliban recently in Helmand, including an hours-long battle last month. But in keeping with Barack Obama’s formal declaration that the US is not engaged in combat, defense officials said the additional troops would not take part in combat.
According to Brig. Gen. Wilson Shoffner, a U.S. military spokesman in Afghanistan:
"The battalion will bring a small number of trainers to assist with the efforts to re-man, re-equip, and re-train the 215th Corps, but its primary mission will remain force protection. This is not a new force protection mission, but an enhancement of the existing force protection mission to increase the capacity of our current train, advise and assist efforts."
The new deployment will not increase the number of American troops in Afghanistan. The additional forces will be taken from the 9,800 troops already in the country. The advisors and infantry will come from the 10th Mountain Division. Army Times and Guardian (London)
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday signaled a major split with the Obama administration by accusing it of adopting a policy that has turned the Mideast into "a sea of blood."
On the same day, Frances outgoing foreign minister Laurent Fabius also blamed President Obama for inaction that's led to numerous setbacks in Syria, and said that he doubted that Obama would follow through on previous promises to back Syria's moderate opposition:
"There are ambiguities including among the actors of the coalition. I'm not going to repeat what I've said before about the main pilot [Barack Obama] of the coalition… but we don't have the feeling that there is a very strong commitment there.I don't think that the end of Mr. Obama's mandate will push him to act as much as his minister [secretary of state John Kerry] declares."
While Fabius merely blamed Obama for inaction, Erdogan blamed Obama for specific actions -- namely supporting the YPG, the armed wing of the Kurds in Syria. The US has been supporting the YPG as its foot soldiers in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). However, the YPG has ties to the PKK in Turkey, which an internationally recognized separatist terrorist group that has been conducting terror attacks in Turkey for decades. Furthermore, the YPG is allied with Russia, which is now a bitter enemy of Turkey.
Erdogan on Wednesday said that Obama has to make a decision whether his ally is Turkey or the YPG:
"Hey, America. Because you never recognized them as a terrorist group, the region has turned into a sea of blood.“We have written proof! We tell the Americans, ‘It’s a terror group.’ But the Americans stand up and say, ‘No, we don’t see them as terror groups.' ...
Am I your regional partner or are the terrorists in Kobani [the YPG]? ...
They [US officials] do not say anything to our faces, but they make different statements elsewhere. It is not possible to understand what type of partnership this is."
Erdogan added that it's impossible to trust America at this point.
Erdogan indicated that Turkey would break with American policy and implement its own solution, referring to his proposal to create a safe zone or buffer zone in northern Syria. As we wrote yesterday ( "10-Feb-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey head for clash on Syria border"), Erdogan appears to be taking advantage of the tens of thousands of Syrian refugees massed on Turkey's border by setting up refugee camps in Syria, effectively creating a de facto buffer zone. CNN and Daily Caller and Vice News and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Feb-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan splits further with US, blaming it for a 'sea of blood' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Feb-2016)
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Turkey border 'buffer zone' could result in clash with Syrian army
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Russian warplanes continue to pound civilians, causing tens of thousands more to flee the city.
A report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) says that Russian warplanes used cluster bombs in at least 14 attacks across five provinces since January 26. Cluster bombs open in flight and scatter dozens of explosive munitions over wide areas. They're particularly effective in killing large numbers of civilians over a wide area.
The United Nations has warned that hundreds of thousands of civilians could starve if, as feared, forces loyal to the Syrian government encircle Aleppo and submit it to a siege, backed by Russian warplanes. It said that a huge new wave of refugees would be forced to flee from a Russian-backed assault. Independent (London) and Fox News and AP
Thousands more Syrians continue to flee Syrian army forces and Russian warplanes pounding Aleppo, and are joining the tens of thousands already massed on the border with Turkey.
The Red Crescent (the Islamic branch of the International Red Cross) has been overseeing refugee camps in Turkey, as well as aid to hundreds of thousands of refugees in Turkey, and is now providing eight tent camps and humanitarian aid for refugees in Syria massed on the border with Turkey. They have provided 2,000 tents, as well as blankets, food, water, and hygiene kits.
However, aid groups say that tents on the Syrian side of the border are overcrowded and that food is in short supply. The United Nations is demanding that Turkey open its border to "all civilians who are fleeing danger and seeking international protection as they have done since the start of this crisis."
There are two major reasons why Turkey is reluctant to open its border to tens of thousands more refugees:
Some Turkish columns are calling European Union calls to open the border "a joke":
"It’s almost like a bad joke. At the very moment when EU member states are doing their utmost to close their borders to Syrian refugees, the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Frederica Mogherini is calling on Ankara to admit the tens of thousands of refugees piled up on Turkey’s borders near the town of Kilis, following the recent advances near Aleppo by al-Assad regime forces supported by Russia and Iran.Mogherini is saying that there is a moral if not legal duty to provide protection to these people. According to her, the EU is also providing funds to ensure that Turkey has “the means, the instruments, and the resources to protect and host the people who are seeking asylum.”
This appears to be no more than a flimsy attempt to retain a moral high ground against Turkey at a time when Europe is reacting deplorably to the refugee crisis and therefore has much to answer for. What Mogherini says also completely disregards what Turkey has been doing for the past four years."
Turkish columnists also note that the EU has promised financial aid for refugees in Turkey, but that the financial aid hasn't materialized. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Washington Post
There's another, more strategic reason why Turkey is setting up refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border near Aleppo.
For four years, Turkey has advocated setting up a "buffer zone" on the Syrian side of the border, starting at a time when hundreds of new refugees were entering Turkey each day rather than many thousands. Turkey received no international support for the idea, because of the concern that it would bring Turkey's army into conflict with Syria's army. ( "17-Mar-12 World View -- Turkey once again talks about a 'buffer zone' in Syria")
Now, with tens of thousands of Syrian refugees massed on Turkey's border, Turkey has managed to set up a de facto buffer zone. Turkey considers this even more urgently needed today not only because of the larger mass of refugees, but also because Turkey wants to prevent the hated Kurds from creating a de facto Kurdish state along the entire border, from western Syria all the way west into Iraq.
However, the concerns today about a clash with Syria's army are just as real. Syrian officials are making it clear that they intend to "control the borders" with Turkey.
In an interview, Bouthaina Shaaban, advisor to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, said:
"[There would be no letup in an army advance, which aimed] "to liberate cities and villages that were controlled by the terrorists for 3-1/2 years, and also an attempt to liberate the city of Aleppo from the crimes of terrorism.[We intend] to control our borders with Turkey, because Turkey is the main source of terrorists, and the main crossing for them. ...
We hope that the operation will continue in the north until we control the borders and stop the terrorists who Turkey has since the start of the crisis worked to send to Syria."
This is not something that Turkey would want to see, as it would certainly mean Kurdish control of the entire length of the border between Syria and Turkey.
Perhaps Turkey will back down and let the masses of refugees into Turkey, and allow the Syrian army to take control of the border region. Or, perhaps Syria will back down, and allow Turkey to keep its de facto buffer zone in Syria along the border.
Syrian army forces are already just 25 km from Turkey's border. If neither side backs down, then there will be a clash in the next few weeks.
As long time readers know, Generational Dynamics has predicted for years that the entire Mideast is headed for a major war between Jews and Arabs, between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and among various ethnic groups. Things have been moving very quickly for the last few months, and each new week seems to have some event that brings that prediction closer to fruition. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Feb-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey head for clash on Syria border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Feb-2016)
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Hong Kong experiences worst violence in years
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Bangladesh's biggest art show, the Dhaka Arts Summit, was forced to cover up an exhibit by Tibetan artists, due to threats from China's ambassador. The exhibit page homage to 149 Tibetans who had self-immolated (burned themselves to death) to protest China's policies. The exhibit displays five letters written by Tibetan protesters before they burned themselves.
According to the artist:
"They had to be covered because the Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh (Ma Mingqiang) found the works offensive, during a visit to the summit on Saturday.We were told by the curator (Diana Campbell Betancourt) that he exploded as soon as he saw it and asked the works to be removed immediately or face consequences."
The nature of the "consequences" was not explained.
China heavily censors art displays within China, and now is censoring art displays in other countries. AFP and Indian Express
People used to say that the U.S. was so deeply in debt to China that China could blackmail the U.S. by simply threatening to sell off all the Treasury bonds that it owns. In those days, the U.S. was importing so much from China that China had to buy US Treasuries to help the balance of payments between the two countries.
Those days are long gone now, with the American dollar steadily strengthening and China's economy steadily weakening.
For a number of months, China's economy has been weakening, and the government has had to battle a stock market rout, slowing factory production and falling exports last year, and causing China's renminbi (yuan) currency to weaken. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) central bank has responded by selling its holdings of foreign currencies (dollars, yen, euros) in order to buy up yuan on the international markets, thereby increasing the demand for yuan and preventing it from weakening further. The PBoC fears that there could be an international run on yuan currency, causing a rapid devaluation, and destabilizing China's economy.
So it still came as a surprise that China's foreign currency reserves plunged $99.5 billion in January. In other words, China sold off almost $100 billion in dollars, yen and euros in order to purchase yuan, to prevent a devaluation.
At $3.23 trillion, China still has the world's biggest reserve of foreign currency holdings. But that has declined by $420 billion in just the last six months, and is now at the lowest level since May 2012.
According to one analyst, "While the remaining reserves still represent a substantial war chest, the mathematics around this rapid pace of depletion in recent months is simply unsustainable for any length of time."
That means that the yuan is continuing to lose value, and analysts are expecting the PBoC to devalue the yuan by substantial further amounts in the next few months.
Already, the yuan has declined 1.24% against the dollar so far this year.
In fact, the yuan may be in a vicious deflationary spiral. Forex (foreign exchange) investors see that that the yuan is going to be devalued so they are selling yuan to purchase dollar-denominate assets -- the exact opposite of what the PBoC is doing. Investors selling yuan will cause the yuan to devalue further, causing investors to sell even more.
According to this analyst: “Domestic private investors and global currency traders see a one-way bet against the currency. This has resulted in large-scale private capital outflows since early 2015 as expectations mount that the PBoC will eventually be forced to capitulate once its reserves are sufficiently depleted."
Devaluing a currency makes the country's products cheaper on the international markets, and so makes the country more competitive, increasing exports. That's what China would like.
But there are many emerging market countries, especially China's neighbors in Asia, whose economies depend heavily on trade with China, and so they're devaluing their own currencies in sympathy with China. The concern is that this will be a different kind of vicious cycle, as countries compete with each other to "race to the bottom," with devaluations in one country triggering further devaluations in other countries.
A "race to the bottom" among Asian and emerging market currencies could have a substantial effect on the U.S. economy, since the dollar is expected to strengthen substantially in this scenario, making American goods extremely expensive on world markets. This could dramatically reduce exports, reducing earnings, and causing the stock market to tumble, which is part of the explanation for what happened on Monday. BBC and Bloomberg and International Business Times
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Monday was another dramatic day on Wall Street, as the day began with a 400+ point drop on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), with oil prices falling once again below $30 per barrel. By the end of the day, the stock market recovered to "only" a 178 point loss. Analysts are mostly confused about why the stock market has been falling recently, and I frequently see them on tv scratching their heads wondering why such a "small economy" like China's is having such a big effect on Wall Street.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (February 5) was at an astronomically high 21.41. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
If you compare stock price and P/E ratio changes in the last month, there are some interesting observations. Last week, on the moring of February 5, the Dow was at 16417 and the S&P 500 P/E ratio was at 21.40.
A month ago, on the morning of January 8, stock prices were higher, but the P/E ratio was lower. Specifically, the Dow was at 16514, and the P/E ratio was 21.03.
Now that should be impossible. The P/E ratio is, well, a ratio of stock prices to earnings, and so if stock prices fall, then the P/E ratio should fall as well.
But of course, that's not always true, because the earnings may change as well. What's been happening is that fourth quarter (4Q2015) earnings have been coming out in the last month,
In fact, 63% of S&P 500 companies reported results as of Friday morning, and Q4 earnings are on track to decline 4.1%. This is even worse than the 3.7% decline that analysts had been predicting at the beginning of January.
The 4.1% decline in Q4 earnings would be the biggest drop in six years, and it follows a 0.8% decline in Q3. Revenue figures followed the same path, with revenue falling 3.5% in Q4, after falling 4.4% in Q3.
And so, the reason that the P/E ratio increased in the last month, despite the fact that stock prices have fallen, is that earnings have fallen even more.
If earnings decline two quarters in a row, then it's called an "earnings recession." We won't know for several months whether the GDP also fell for two quarters in a row, which would be the definition of an "economic recession."
The stock market has been in a bubble for several years. Although analysts are always claiming that "this time it's different," the fact is that it's never different, and Generational Dynamics is predicting a stock market panic and crash, with the Dow falling to 3000 or lower. USA Today and Barrons and Investors Business Daily
Dozens of people, including several Hong Kong policemen, were injured in some of the worst Hong Kong violence in years.
With the Lunar New Year celebrations in progress, police were called in to shut down illegal food stalls and food hawkers in the main shopping district. "Pro-democracy" activists had been prepared for the arrival of the police. Around 100 protesters began throwing missiles, including paving stones, bricks, bottles and plant pots at officers. They also set fires and blocked roads, while the police fired warning shots over the crowd. Coconuts Hong Kong
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Feb-16 World View -- Monday's stock market rout blamed on China's foreign currency selloffs thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Feb-2016)
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UAE says it's ready to supply ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As we've been reporting since the beginning of January, plans are being made in Washington, London, Paris and Rome for military intervention in Libya in the next few weeks, probably in March, to counter the rise of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). ( "6-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France preparing new Libya military offensive early in 2016")
Reports indicate that the government of Britain's prime minister David Cameron is making preparations for a military intervention in Libya in the next few weeks. "Italians are doing a lot of surveillance, identification of targets for possible bombing by the British and Americans," according to a British analyst.
British opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said there were “growing signs that the British Government may be preparing to intervene militarily again in Libya," and he's demanding that the Parliament be given a chance to debate any future plans for military intervention in Libya:
"The Prime Minister should report to Parliament on what steps have already been taken – and, in particular, whether UK drones are being used to support armed forces or militias in Libya’s civil war by gathering intelligence for one side or the other.We need an unequivocal assurance that no decision has been taken to use drones, over which Britain has control or partial control, in support of military operations in Libya. And he must make a clear commitment that MPs will be given the chance to debate in advance any decision to renew British military intervention in Libya."
During Saturday evening's Republican candidate debate, there was one question about Libya asked of two candidates, Jeb Bush and Ben Carson. The question and Bush's answer were (my transcription):
"Question: Governor Bush, Libya is a country in chaos, there is no government. Defense officials said this week that there are now 5,000 ISIS fighters there roughly doubling previous estimates. We know you and others have been critical of the administration's handling of initial airstrikes that you supported. This is a problem you would stand to inherit if you're the next president. Reports this week said the administration is considering new air strikes, possible special operations raids. Would you support renewed airstrikes or any US involvement on the ground?Bush: I would, and I would do it in concert again with our Arab allies, and with Europe most particularly in this case. This is the lesson learned in history: if you bomb something and not do anything as it relates to deal with the aftermath of this, if you don't have a stable government, you get what we have in Libya, and leading from behind is not an effective policy. We have to lead. Without the United States, nothing seems to work. Europe doesn't seem to have the ability to forward lead in this regard. And so dealing with the caliphate is important because it has now spawned in other areas, there have been 70+ attacks in 17 countries either inspired by ISIS or organized by ISIS, Libya being the most important one now.
We have to deal with the caliphate with building a Sunni army there, but we also have to deal with it in Libya, and I think the United States is ultimately is going to play a significant role in this.
The problem with the Obama administration is that they see this incrementally. They're reluctant. They don't lead. No one knows whether we're serious. And when they do it, they do it in increments that you can barely see. The United States has to lead in a much more aggressive way than we're doing right now."
Ben Carson's response was as follows:
"Carson: I wanna something say about this, because I'm not here just to add beauty to the stage. You know I've been talking about Libya for quite a long time. I think I was the first one to start talking about it. Because we have to have a proactive foreign policy strategy, and of course the next place that ISIS is gonna tack to is Libya. If you wanna expand your caliphate, and increase your influence, then you're gonna wanna go to a place that's strategically located. You go north across the Mediterranean, you're into southern Europe; you go south, you're into Chad and Sudan and Niger, and not to mention the fact you have much more oil than you do in Iraq.That's the kind of places they're gonna go to. Therefore, we need to be thinking about how to prevent them from tacking over there. They're already sending their fighters there. We need to be consulting with our military experts and asking them, what do they need in order to prevent ISIS from being able to take over Libya. That's gonna have enormous consequences."
A British government spokesman said: "The UK, along with international partners, is supporting the process to form a recognized Libyan government. No decisions have been made about the future deployment of any British military forces to Libya as part of an international coalition force." Independent (London)
United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Sunday joined Saudi Arabia in saying that it was ready to supply ground troops to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Syria, raising the possibility of even greater foreign involvement in the five-year-old civil war.
According to Foreign Affairs minister Anwar Gargas:
"I think that this has been our position throughout ... that a real campaign against Daesh has to include ground elements. ...We are not talking about a thousand troops but we are talking about troops on the ground that will lead the way, that will train, that will support ... And I think our position remains the same and we will have to see how this progresses. ...
Of course an American leadership in this effort is a pre-requisite."
Saudi Arabia has already announced that it was ready to send ground troops into Syria, though as we reported yesterday, Iran, Syria and Russia responded to Saudi Arabia's announcement by ridiculing the Saudi army.
In related news, tens of thousands of Syrian refugees continue to flee from Aleppo, as Russian airstrikes slaughter large numbers of civilians, and as Syria, Iranian and Hezbollah troops continue to encircle the town, preparing for the final siege and mass slaughter.
Turkey, which is hosting 2.5 million Syrians, says that it's "at capacity," and cannot accept any more Syrian refugees. However, Turkey has set up 8 refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border, and is pouring tents, food and other supplies into the refugee camps. The intent, presumably, is to meet its international obligations to care for refugees, but doing it on Syria's soil, rather than Turkey's. Reuters and Gulf Today (UAE) and USA Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Feb-16 World View -- Plans continue for Western military deployment into Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Feb-2016)
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Europe sends mixed messages to Turkey about new flood of Syrian refugees
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As Syrian regime forces and Russian warplanes continue to pound civilian targets in Aleppo and cut off supply routes, people fleeing Aleppo will not be permitted to cross the border into Turkey, according to Süleyman Tapsiz, the governor of Turkey's Kilis province, which borders Syria. Tapsiz says that 35,000 people are already massed on the border with Turkey, and 70,000 more are expected in the next few days.
"Our doors are not closed, but at the moment there is no need to host such people inside our borders," said Tapciz. Refugees are being directed to refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border, and they're being given food, blankets and tents. AFP and Cihan (Turkey) and Reuters
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini urged Turkey on Saturday to reopen its border to "Syrians in need for international protection," and allow tens of thousands of Syrian refugees to come to Turkey to seek asylum. Mogherini that "the support that the EU is providing to Turkey, among others, is aimed exactly at guaranteeing" that Turkey can protect and host people that are seeking asylum.
As Syrian regime forces encircle Aleppo with the help of massive Russian warplane airstrikes, it's believed that are remaining in Aleppo because they have no place to go, and that hundred of thousands more civilians would flee north to Turkey if they believed that they could cross the border.
Also on Saturday, another EU official, European Commissioner Johannes Hahn, said that Turkey must slow down the flow of refugees from Turkey into Greece, something that Turkey has failed to do, despite a November 29 deal to reduce the flows. According to Hahn:
"This action plan was agreed more than two months ago and we are still not seeing a significant decline in the number of migrants, Turkey could do more, I have no doubt."
On November 29, the EU has agreed to give Turkey 3 billion euros ($3.2 billion) to keep Syrian refugees on its soil in return for an acceleration of the EU accession talks and speeded-up visa liberalization for Turks visiting Europe.
Europe's message is even more confusing because it's losing control of its own borders. Earlier this week, the EU said Greece had to re-establish full control over its border with Turkey. According to Hungary's foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto: “If Greece is not ready or able to protect the Schengen zone and doesn’t accept any assistance from the EU then we need another defense line, which is obviously Macedonia and Bulgaria.”
The Schengen zone is a group of 25 European countries that permit visa-free border crossings among them. Free travel between countries is considered to be a right that's at the core of European Union. However, the Schengen zone is already in trouble because of the flood of refugees. Six Schengen members, including Germany and four other EU countries, have resorted to reinstating temporary border checks, at least until May. AP and Zaman (Ankara) and Guardian (London)
As we reported two days ago, Saudi Arabia announced that it is ready to send ground troops into Syria to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The announcement was apparently triggered by Russia's massive bombing of Aleppo.
Theoretically, Russian warplanes are fighting ISIS, but in fact they're leaving ISIS completely untouched and are carpet bombing civilians linked to moderate opposition to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The same is also true of Syrian troops and Iranian troops.
Similarly, Saudi Arabia says that they're going to be fighting ISIS, but in fact they're going to be supporting the same groups that the Russians are carpet-bombing.
So even though the Russians, Syrians, Iranians and the Saudis all talk about fighting ISIS, they're actually going to be fighting each other. And if Turkey enters the fray, which is certainly possible, then we'll have a full-scale regional sectarian war in progress, with Russia, Syria and Iran fighting Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Now both Iran and Syria are turning up the nationalistic fury by ridiculing and insulting Saudi Arabia's army.
Iran and Saudi Arabia have already terminated diplomatic relations, as of early January. Maj. Gen. Ali Jafari, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), said on Saturday:
"They claim they will send troops (to Syria), but I don't think they will dare do so. They have a classic army and history tells us such armies stand no chance in fighting irregular resistance forces.This will be like a coup de grace for them. Apparently, they see no other way but this, and if this is the case, then their fate is sealed."
Syria's foreign minister Walid Muallem has warned responded to Saudi Arabia's announced with a warning:
"Any ground intervention on Syrian territory without government authorization would amount to aggression that must be resisted.Let no one think they can attack Syria or violate its sovereignty because I assure you any aggressor will return to their country in a wooden coffin."
The mocking and ridicule didn't stop there. Maria Zakharova, the spokesman for Russia's foreign ministry, treated the reports with sarcasm: "I’m afraid to ask, have they already defeated everybody in Yemen?" CNN and Russia Today
Turkey's army has has confiscated 700 parrots and 294 budgerigars (parakeets) on the border with Syria. The border closings have also shut off what was long a thriving illicit trade in goods including fuel, cigarettes, and sugar, as well as rare birds.
According to Mehmet Turan, a bird breeder in the Turkish border town of Reyhanli:
"They were generally bringing Sultan, Love and Paradise parrots. Here in Turkey a Paradise parrot goes for 1,000 lira, but they were bringing them over for 500.It's the same for lovebirds. We were selling them at 25 lira retail, but they came from Syria at 12.5 to 15."
North Korea on Sunday morning launched a long-range ballistic missile test. North Korea claimed it was a test with the intention to put a satellite into orbit, but it's believed that N. Korea is using the satellite claim as a cover for its test deployment of a long-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile, in violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution.
North Korea had pre-announced the test, saying that it was planned for some time between February 8 and 25, but then moved the launch date up and abruptly launched the missile.
Japan had been preparing for the launch by deploying land-based missile interceptors on its southwestern islands around Okinawa, with plans to shoot the missile down if it headed for Japanese territory.
There have been no reports of any Japanese launches following the North Korean launch. CNN and Nikkei (Japan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Feb-16 World View -- Iran, Syria and Russia ridicule Saudi Arabia's army thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Feb-2016)
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Turkey blocks tens of thousands of Aleppo Syria residents from entering Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The 300,000 residents of the city of Aleppo, formerly the commercial hub of Syria, are being used as pawns in a deadly game that will lead inevitably to mass starvation.
As we reported yesterday, Syrian regime troops are encircling Aleppo with the aid of massive Russian airstrikes on civilian neighborhoods. Tens of thousands of Aleppo residents are fleeing the city, heading north, hoping to enter Turkey, and from there to travel on to Europe. However, Turkey has already taken in 2.5 million Syrians since the war began, and is now blocking the border, forcing tens of thousands of refugees to mass on the border.
It's believed to be Russia's strategy to kill as many civilians in Aleppo as possible, so that the rest will flee to Turkey, leaving the city abandoned for the regime to take over. Russia would also gain the advantage of tens of thousands more refugees pouring into Europe.
Turkey apparently plans to try to thwart this strategy by keeping the border closed. Some reports indicate that Turkey is providing food and medicine to the Syrians in Syria, effectively making the northern region of Syria a refugee camp.
Many residents of Aleppo are remaining for now because they know that the border is closed, and they will be prevented from entering Turkey. According to one resident, "If people had guarantees they could enter Turkey, everyone would leave. I would leave." Washington Post and BBC and Military.com
Iran's nuclear deal with the West has exposed major generational political fault lines within Iran's government. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei was making one demand after another, apparently to torpedo implementation of the agreement.
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the Islamic Republic's founders, a former president and now head of Iran's Expediency Council, publicly disagreed with Khamenei's orders and brushed aside Khamenei's new demands. Eventually, Khamenei had to back down and allow the agreement to be implemented. ( "29-Oct-15 World View -- Iran's government splits over implementation of nuclear deal" )
Khamenei is in the generation that fought in the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and is today in the hardest of the hardline Iranian political factions. A feature of these hardliners is that they're using similar tactics to the ones that were successful in 1979, including the very successful taking of American embassy personnel as hostages.
Rafsanjani is in the same generation as Khamenei, and adheres to the same "revolutionary principles," but is considered a "moderate" or "pragmatic" because he combines these principles with a desire to modernize Iran and integrate it with the international community.
The political fault line exposed by the nuclear negotiations still exists and is worsening, with a new election approaching on February 26 to elect a new Majlis (parliament) and Assembly of Experts.
There is now a vicious political battle in progress over which candidates will be permitted to run in the elections.
In December, Iran's hardline watchdog body, the Guardian Council, ruled that thousands of potential candidates, almost every one from the moderate political factions, were to be disqualified from running in the election. The Guardian Council is under the control of Khamenei, and is an unelected body of 12 Islamic jurists and hardline clerics, that can veto election candidates for reasons such as lack of commitment to Islam and the constitution.
Khamenei said, "Those who don't have faith in the clerical establishment, should not be allowed to perform a duty."
The objective of the mass disqualifications seems obvious: To prevent the Majlis from implementing many reform policies favored by Rafsanjani and the current president, Hassan Rouhani. Khamenei's remark about "those who don't have faith in the clerical establishment" was an offensive insult to the moderates, by implying that their support for political reforms might be treasonous and a religious apostasy.
Unsurprisingly, this has created a firestorm in Iran, with many clerics taking offense at the disqualifications. Many pointed out that Khamenei's act was self-defeating:
Ayatollah Kazem Nourmofidi said, "Disqualification of those who believe in the Islamic Republic, Islam and the pillars of our system ... will create a deep rift between real believers of our system and the establishment."
Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheyb, in a letter to the Guardian Council, said: "You have acknowledged the right of only 30 percent of our voters, ignoring rights of others. Don't you think it will create a huge rift between the people and the leadership?"
Even worse, there are concerns that public anger at the Khamenei and the other hardline geezers is going to trigger massive anti-government protests. This happened in the 2009 elections, resulting bloody massacres of peaceful protesters by Khamenei's storm troopers. (From June 2009: "Iran's Khamenei appears desperate, as reports of Tehran massacres grow")
The anxiety over a possible repeat of 2009 seems febrile, as exemplified by this extraordinary directive from the Herasat Office, Iran's domestic intelligence and security forces, entitled: "Issue: Paying workers’ wages in the final days of the year":
"With greeting and respect, you are hereby informed that given that the end of the [Persian calendar] year is approaching and taking note of the instructions handed down by the minister and competent authorities regarding timely payment of workers’ wages and back pay, you must instruct that all wages, bonuses, back pay and overtime pay be paid no later than February 24, 2016 in order to prevent any possible gatherings or sit-ins and their related negative consequences.You are reminded that given the upcoming elections of the Assembly of Experts and Islamic Assembly (Parliament), this issue must be treated with especial importance and sensitivity in order to prevent any misuse of this matter for publicity in particular in the realm of workers’ protests."
In other words, a lot of Iranians haven't been paid their salaries, and the Khamenei regime is ordering that they be paid the money they're owed by February 24, two days before the election, in the hope of defusing any potential mass protests. Tasnim News (Iran) and Memri and Reuters (21-Jan) and National Council of Resistance of Iran
America in the 1960s and 1970s was one generation past the end of World War II, and went through a generational Awakening era, with a "generation gap" that pitted the generations of war survivors (the GI and Silent generations) against those who grew up after the war (the Boomers). The result was "days of rage," street protests, the Summer of Love, the national Democratic convention riots, the Kent State shootings, Watergate, and regime change.
Iran is now in a period one generation past the end of its last crisis war, the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988. Iran is going through a similar "generation gap," pitting the Revolution survivors versus the generations growing up afterwards.
Although there are various splinter groups in Iran's government, they break down into three major categories:
Iran's constitution contains a central contradiction that's caused one political crisis after another: the assumption that elected institutions would function in harmony with the rulings handed down by religious jurists.
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, assumed that, in a rightly ordered state, God's will (as determined by the clerics) and the people's will (as manifested through elections) would coincide. This happened during the first years of the generational Recovery era following the crisis war. But as young people with no personal memories of the war entered their teen years, anti-government protests began, and had to be violently put down by bloody massacres.
The first major political defeat of the hardliners occurred in the 1997, to replace Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as president, when the victory went to Reformist cleric Muhammad Khatami. There were more reformer victories in the 2000 parliamentary elections, gaining more than two-thirds of the seats.
In the 2004 parliamentary elections, the Guardian Council disqualified thousands of pro-reform candidates from competing for seats, just as they're still doing in the 2016 parliamentary elections.
With the younger generations of Reformists increasingly moving into positions of power, and as the Principlists die off, the remaining hardliners have been panicking and using the Guardian Council to quash any attempts at political reform, and bloody massacres by the security police to prevent any street protests from becoming effective.
Since then, the moderate Rafsanjani has led the "pragmatists" in their attempt to resolve the constitutional contradiction, by reconciling the injunctions of the Islamic Revolution with the democratic norms espoused by the West. Rafsanjani has had to be careful to reject the Reformists' demands for regime change, so as not to risk being jailed. (Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi Rafsanjani was jailed last year for the crime of "inciting unrest" in 2009.)
Both Khamenei and Rafsanjani are founding members of the Islamic Republic; they both fought in the Islamic Revolution; they're in the same generation. But they're bitter political enemies because Rafsanjani wants to implement political reforms that Khamenei dogmatically opposes. The February 26 elections provide the backdrop for a dramatic new battle in their relationship. Eurasia Review and Memri and Asharq Al-Awsat (Riyadh) and Council on Foreign Relations (August 2004) and BBC (15-Mar-2015)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Feb-16 World View -- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Feb-2016)
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Turkey denies Russian reports of Syria invasion
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Syrian regime forces, backed by massive bombing by Russian warplanes, cut a vital commercial supply route between Turkey and Aleppo, Syria's largest city. This route is used to provide food, medicines and other supplies to the more than 2 million people living in Aleppo.
Already, tens of thousands are fleeing from Aleppo. Turkey says that there are already 10,000 refugees at Turkey's "door," stranded at the border crossing to Turkey, and 70,000 more are already on the way. The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that about 40,000 people have fled the region in the past few days.
There are fears that regime forces will now move south and encircle and starve Aleppo, as the regime has done in Homs and other cities. In that case, there may be hundreds of thousands attempting to flee and head for Turkey.
These are all new refugees that could enter Turkey and then attempt to reach the Aegean Sea and travel to Europe. Europe has in the past asked for Turkey's help in slowing the flood of refugees reaching Europe, and has promised financial aid for the refugees to encourage them to remain in Turkey.
At an international Syria donors conference held in London on Thursday, countries pledged billions of dollars in aid for fleeing refugees. Germany pledged $2.6 billion in aid, the United Kingdom pledged $1.7 billion and the U.S. pledged about $925 million.
What usually happens with these international aid conferences is that a lot of money is pledged, but the pledges are forgotten once the conference and the opportunity for publicity end. In this case, it's hoped that the pledges will be fulfilled, because it's the only hope of slowing the flood of refugees.
The conference itself was overshadowed by the collapse of the "peace talks" in Geneva, as we reported yesterday, and by today's news of the impending humanitarian disaster in Aleppo. In addition, there's continues to be increasing talk about Western military intervention in Libya in the next few weeks, where ISIS is gaining greater and greater control. The old post-WW II order in the Mideast is collapsing, and it seems that barely a day goes by without something new about the collapse. Deutsche Welle and Bloomberg and Vice News and International Business Times
Saudi Arabia is ready to supply troops for a Western ground operation in Syria. According to Asiri:
"If the leaders of the international coalition unanimously decided to carry out such operations, the kingdom would be ready to participate in these efforts."
Saudi Arabia is part of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, and has carried out more than 190 aerial missions. It's also believed that the Saudis have previously supplied weapons to moderate rebel groups in Syria fighting ISIS. The use of ground troops has been hinted at in the past, but the latest announcement is formal and serious, the sources said.
The announcement came after the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed responsibility for two suicide bomb attacks on Shia mosques in Saudi Arabia earlier this month, as well as several similar attacks last year. Nominally, Saudi troops in Syria would be fighting ISIS.
Saudi Arabia is already fighting a war in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthis, and that war appears to be stalemated. Saudi Arabia and Iran are bitter enemies, and a month ago, the countries broke diplomatic relations with each other. Saudi troops in Syria might well end up fighting Iranian troops. Saudi Press Agency and Reuters
Saudi Arabia is facing multiple crises, including a crash in oil prices, its principal source of revenue, and wars in neighboring countries in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir says that Saudi Arabia has been unfairly blamed for the 9/11/2001 attacks on the United States, and that in fact it's Saudi Arabia that's under attack by terrorists and by Iran:
"Some try to malign Saudi Arabia by reciting that “15 of the 19” 9/11 hijackers were Saudi. They should know that the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, told US interrogators that the initial plan was to have 20 hijackers from different nationalities, but late in the planning Osama Bin Laden directed him to use as many Saudis as possible to give the attack a Saudi face.This was likely designed to drive a wedge between the Kingdom and the US. If this was Osama Bin Laden’s plan, it almost succeeded, as we saw from the wave of criticism the kingdom experienced after 9/11. ...
“Saudi Arabia has long been a target of terrorism perpetrated by Iranian proxies. ...
“Many countries have known the grief and pain [terrorism] causes. It makes no sense for Saudi Arabia to support or condone those who have as their goal the destruction of Saudi Arabia. It is against our values, our faith and our national character.
That is why the Kingdom has responded with strength, persistence and resolve. To accuse the Kingdom of being lax, much less complicit, when it comes to combating terrorism and its financing is not only irresponsible but also flies against the face of reality."
It's widely believed that even if Saudi's government is not sponsoring terrorism, then some powerful Wahhabi Salafi groups within Saudi Arabia are doing so. Saudi Gazette
The spokesman for Russia's defense ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov, says that Turkey is trying to conceal "illegal" military activity on its border with Syria. Konashenkov's unsupported claim is that Turkey is firing artillery into populated areas in the north of Latakia Province, and is preparing to invade Syria.
According to Konashenkov, "The signs of hidden preparation of Turkish armed forces for activities in the territory of Syria we notice more and more."
However, an unnamed source in the office of Turkey's prime minister told CNN that there are no such plans. "Simply they are diverting attention from their attacks on civilians as a country already invading Syria," the source told CNN. "Turkey has all the rights to take any measures to protect its own security." Russia Today and CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Feb-16 World View -- Saudi ready to send ground troops into Syria, as regime encircles Aleppo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Feb-2016)
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John Kerry warns of ISIS expansion in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Syria "peace talks" being held in Geneva collapsed on Wednesday, as the opposition walked out because Russian warplanes were saturation bombing opposition fighters in Aleppo, after Russia had promised to stop bombing altogether as a precondition to the talks.
A week ago when I wrote "25-Jan-16 World View -- Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva", I pointed out that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad used the preceding attempts at "peace talks" as a cover to continue his genocidal attempts at extermination of Sunnis in Syria, and that he never had any intention of fulfilling any commitments he made, as all commitments were just stalling maneuvers to give him more time to continues his genocide.
The new "peace talks" never had a chance because the Syria and Russian regimes once again were using it as a cover. The opposition groups did not want to attend at all, but they sent a representative under enormous American pressure, under assurances by Secretary of State John Kerry that the Russians were committed to pause the bombing at the start of the peace talks.
Instead, when the peace talks supposedly began on Monday, Russia not only did not pause the bombing, but actually redoubled the bombing on innocent civilians, thus making a fool of Kerry. According to a report that I heard from al-Jazeera's United Nations correspondent, Kerry tried to phone Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, but Lavrov didn't return his calls.
Syrian regime troops backed by Russian warplanes are now poised to recapture Aleppo from the opposition rebels. This will be a major victory of the opposition forces. Rebel forces are probably entrenched in the town, but that won't be a problem for the Russians who will bomb and flatten entire village, killing as many thousands of innocent women and children as necessary.
It still never ceases to amaze me what a disaster the Syrian, Russian and Iranian regimes have brought about, being entirely to blame for the mass slaughter of hundreds of thousands of innocent people, triggering the flight of millions of refugees to Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Europe, and creating the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
As the entire Mideast continues to fall apart in different countries, as Europe continues to be flooded with Syrian refugees, and as ISIS affiliations continue to spread around the region, many international leaders have been hoping and praying that the Syrian peace talks would bring relief for all these problems.
The desperate Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations special envoy who is shepherding the negotiations, said that the collapse wasn't really a collapse, but just a "pause" until February 25. Still, the air in Geneva, the United Nations and throughout the Mideast is thick with anxiety and desperation, as many people wonder what the next disaster will be to strike the Mideast.
For years, Generational Dynamics has predicted that the entire Mideast is headed for a major war between Jews and Arabs, between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and among various ethnic groups. Reuters and Baltimore Sun and Washington Post
U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Tuesday that ISIS is creating a new stronghold in oil-rich Libya:
"As everybody here knows, that country has resources,” Kerry said at a conference of 23 foreign ministers from nations that form the core of a coalition fighting the Islamic State. “The last thing in the world you’d want is a false caliphate with access to billions of dollars in oil revenue."
As we reported a month ago, reports indicate that the US, Britain, France are preparing a new Libya military offensive around the beginning of March.
Kerry on Tuesday ruled out military intervention in Libya by the United States in the near future, but he said that could change if there were "some turn of events, like weapons of mass destruction ending up in the hands of the wrong people." Washington Post and NBC News and Arab News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Feb-16 World View -- Syria peace talks collapse as Russia carpet bombs opposition in Aleppo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Feb-2016)
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Jordan's King demands more refugee aid from international community
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There are already about 1.4 million people living in Jordan, and more are pouring in every day. According to Jordan's King Abdullah:
"The hospitality of our country has been known for decades. We have looked after waves and waves of refugees. And again what you have to understand, and what is not being spoken about, is not just the 20% of our population, which is Syrian refugees. And, again, reminding everyone in the international community that 90% are outside of the refugee camps. They are in our infrastructure; they are in our schools; they are in our hospitals. Rent in many areas has gone up by 300%. In the northern provinces that you have been, in the northern governorates, in a lot of areas, the Jordanians are in the minority. Rent is up 300%, as I said."
Abdullah says that Jordanian people, especially young people, can no longer find jobs because they're displace by refugees. As more and more refugees pour in, the situation "has gotten to a boiling point. Jordanians are suffering from trying to find jobs; the pressure on the infrastructure for the government; it has hurt us when it comes to the educational system, our healthcare; people, just Jordanians trying to get along with their lives. Sooner or later, I think the dam is going to burst."
Abdullah is traveling to London to attend a donors conference for Syrian refugees. He says that he'll be issuing an ultimatum that he needs more international aid, or he's going to refuse to take in any more Syrian refugees beyond "limited numbers."
Like many Mideast leaders, Abdullah is contemptuous of the whining of European leaders who are complaining about absorbing a couple of million refugees into a population of 500 million, less than half of one percent, as compared to 20% for Jordan. He said that Europeans have been profuse with praise for Jordan. "Those words were all wonderful, but it wasn’t until a trickle hit European shores that then, I think, eyebrows were raised and they began to realise the reality of the challenges that Jordanians have faced."
Abdullah added:
"Whenever the international community has asked for Jordan to fight the good fight, alongside of our colleagues all over the international community, we have never said no. What we are asking now for the first time is, the international community, we have always stood shoulder-to-shoulder by your side; we are now asking for your help, you can’t say no this time around to us."
My guess is that there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Abdullah will get the international aid that he wants. The best he can hope for is a few more wonderful words, and promises of aid that will never be fulfilled. Jordan Times and Public Radio International (PRI) and Jordan Times
For the second time, on Sunday the US Navy has sent an American warship on a "Freedom of Navigation op" (FONOP) into the South China Sea near an island claimed by China as sovereign territory. The Navy did something similar last year in October, in both cases to challenge Chinese claims.
Both FONOPs were made in pursuit of stated US policy. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world."
However, there were significant differences between the two FONOPs, with two different legal rationales.
In October, the USS Lassen sailed within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef. Subi Reef has been made into an artificial island by the Chinese, and they are now claiming that the artificial island is their sovereign territory. The purpose of October's FONOP was to contest China's claim that it was an "island," rather than a "low-tide elevation."
On Sunday, the USS Curtis Wilbur, a guided-missile destroyer, sailed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels, which is controlled by China but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. In this case, the legal rationale was to assert the right of innocent passage through territorial waters without having to give advance notice, something that both China and Vietnam demand when foreign vessels transit through territorial waters that they claim. According to the Defense Dept:
"This operation challenged attempts by the three claimants, China, Taiwan and Vietnam, to restrict navigation rights and freedoms around the features they claim by policies that require prior permission or notification of transit within territorial seas. The excessive claims regarding Triton Island are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention."
China's foreign ministry responded as follows:
"According to the Law of the People's Republic of China on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone, foreign ships for military purposes shall be subject to approval by the Government of the People's Republic of China for entering the territorial sea of the People's Republic of China. The US navy vessel violated the relevant Chinese law and entered China's territorial sea without authorization. The Chinese side conducted surveillance and vocal warnings to the US navy vessel in accordance with the law. We urge the US to respect and abide by the relevant Chinese law, and make more efforts to increase mutual trust between China and the US and safeguard regional peace and stability."
The interesting thing about this statement is that it makes no reference whatsoever to international law, but only to Chinese law. It's as if I declared the street in front of my apartment building to be my sovereign territory, and then threatened anyone who violated "relevant John Xenakis law" by traveling across it. China is claiming the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory, even though many parts of it are legally in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of other countries, and have sovereign territory of those other countries. Like Russia, China today is following the example of Adolf Hitler by annexing regions belonging to other countries, and in the case of Hitler, this led to World War II. China and Russia are both contemptuous of internal law, and only reference it when doing so is to their benefit.
Sunday's FONOP had the effect of isolating China from the other two countries claiming the island. All three countries have historically demanded “prior permission or notification” before any innocent passage in their territorial waters. But only China has actually protested and condemned the Wilbur passage.
Instead, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement stating simply that Taiwan abides by both the U.N. Charter and UNCLOS and will not pose any “obstacle” to resolving disputes in the South China Sea. Vietnam also released a statement reiterating its sovereignty over Triton Island but also saying that “Vietnam respects the right of other countries to innocent passage in its territorial waters as per the regulations promulgated in international law.” Importantly, neither country condemned the U.S. operation for failing to obtain permission before the “innocent passage” even though both countries apparently codify that requirement in their domestic laws.
According to Admiral Harry B Harris Jr., the commander of the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM):
"I think that as we continue down the path of freedom of navigations, you will see more of them, and you will see them increasing in complexity and scope in areas of challenge."
Harris added that as China continues to build artificial islands in the South China Sea, by 2020 China would effectively control the waters – through which 5 trillion dollars of global trade pass – with only Washington being able to challenge it. The Diplomat and China's Foreign Ministry and Lawfare Blog and The Diplomat
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Feb-16 World View -- US Navy's Freedom of Navigation Ops in South China Sea to grow in scope and complexity thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Feb-2016)
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Israel rejects France's ultimatum to recognize state of Palestine
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Palestinian Authority (PA) police are praising the martyrdom of their colleague, Amjad Sukkari, a 34-year-old policeman who worked as a bodyguard for the Palestinian attorney general, who was shot dead by Israeli troops on Sunday morning after he opened fire on the soldiers at a checkpoint, injuring three.
Thousands of people took to the streets on Monday for Sukkari’s funeral after Israeli forces released his body just a few hours after the shooting. Two of Sukkari’s brothers, both Palestinian police officers, carried the casket from the hospital to the city’s martyrs cemetery as crowds waved flags and chanted “martyr”.
The Palestinian police said in a statement that "with great pride, the members of the Palestinian police eulogize the brave martyrdom of their colleague, Master Sergeant Amjad Sukkari, 'Abu Omar', who committed the operation at V.I.P checkpoint in Beit El."
Palestinian Authority (PA) officials did not participate in the funeral and have refused comment on the matter.
However, officials from Hamas and Islamic Jihad publicly endorsed his actions and called them a natural reaction of occupation. According to a Hamas spokesman, "This attack showcases the rejection of security coordination with the occupation, even among members of the PA security forces."
The Hamas statement signals a possible turn of events that could be extremely dangerous.
There is a long-term agreement between PA and Israel to coordinate security. Thus many potential terrorist attacks on Israelis are prevented by the PA security forces. According to an Israel's defense minister Moshe Ya'alon, the PA foils 20% of organized terrorism by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, while Israel thwarts the remaining 80%.
Obviously, this kind of security coordination between Hamas and the PA is bitterly opposed by Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Now, the Palestinian police eulogizing the "brave martyrdom" of their fellow policemen Sukkari suggests that the PA security forces themselves are opposed to any security cooperation with Israel.
A campaign of stabbings, shootings and car-rammings by Palestinians has killed 26 Israelis and a U.S. citizen since the start of October. Israeli forces have killed at least 153 Palestinians, 99 of them assailants according to Israeli authorities.
As we described last year ( "18-Oct-15 World View -- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive"), there has been a significant change in attitudes in the West Bank, especially young people who grew up after the 1993 Oslo accords between Israel and the Palestinians. They're reacting to the fact that in 23 years since the accords, there have been no changes to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank. They've decided that there's no longer any hope of a two-state solution, and they're looking for a new leader, someone who will "get things done" with the Israelis, using whatever tactics are necessary.
The violence between Palestinians and Israelis in the West Bank has been growing steadily, and there's a fear that Sunday's attack could trigger a new escalation in violence, this time involving the PA peacekeeping forces themselves. Jerusalem Post and Reuters and Middle East Eye and Jerusalem Post
France said on Friday it intended to make another push at trying to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and warned that if its efforts failed, it would recognize a Palestinian State. According to France's foreign affairs minister Laurent Fabius:
"France will engage in the coming weeks in the preparation of an international conference bringing together the parties and their main partners, American, European, Arab, notably to preserve and make happen the two-state solution.[If this attempt fails, then] in this case, we need to face our responsibilities by recognizing the Palestinian state. ...
We see that unfortunately colonization continues and that recently, the Israeli Prime Minister went so far as to reproach the UN Secretary General for encouraging terrorism on the basis that he had reminded of colonization’s illegality and asked that it cease,"
Fabius's last remark referred to remarks by Ban Ki-moon criticizing senior Israeli officials for abandoning the two-state solution, as the current situation was untenable. Ban added that it was "understandable" that Palestinians were resisting Israeli military rule. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded, saying that Ban was "encouraging terrorism."
The Palestinian Authority (PA) welcomed France's initiative.
Netanyahu said that Israel did not reject Fabius's proposal for renewed talks, but said that France's ultimatum was "an incentive to the Palestinians to come along and not compromise." He added,
"I assess that there will be a sobering up regarding this matter. In any event, we will make effort so that there is a sobering up here, and our position is very clear: We are prepared to enter direct negotiation without preconditions and without dictated terms."
However, senior Israeli officials reportedly responded off the record with sarcastic remarks, such as: "Will France be calling for an international conference with the Islamic State, too? It has, after all, been conducting terrorist attacks on French territory."
When President George Bush announced his "Roadmap to Mideast Peace" in 2003, I wrote that the Mideast peace plan would not be implemented, because Israelis and Palestinians would be refighting the 1948 genocidal crisis war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. In that article, I said that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli leader Ariel Sharon hated each other but, consciously or unconsciously, they were cooperating to prevent an all-out war, because they both survived the bloody 1948 war and didn't want it to happen again.
Since 2006, there have been five Mideast wars, and they've all turned out to be non-crisis wars, with operations dictated by political leaders: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and July-August 2014.
There have been several attempts at Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, including two or three by the Obama administration, and they've always been disastrous failure. There is absolutely no reason to believe that the new French initiative will fare any differently. The only question is: When it fails, how bad will the disaster be? France 24 and Al Arabiya and France 24 and Al Monitor
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Feb-16 World View -- France issues ultimatum to Israel as West Bank tensions grow thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Feb-2016)
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Dozens killed in ISIS attack on a Shia shrine in Damascus Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed responsibility for a massive series of suicide bomber attacks on Sunday at the historic Shia Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Syria's capital city Damascus, killing at least 71 people and injuring dozens more.
Two days earlier, a terrorist bombed a Shia mosque in al-Ahsa in eastern Saudi Arabia. Although no one claimed responsibility for the attack, it was similar to attacks by ISIS. The perpetrator was later identified as a Saudi national.
Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the attack on the Saudi mosque:
"The repetition of terror attacks to mosques and Husseiniyehs in eastern Saudi Arabia indicates the worrying security situation in the region and negligence of security forces in fulfilling their responsibility in maintaining public security against terrorists' attacks."
The Iranian comment, essentially blaming the Saudi government for the bombing attack, reflects the increasing hostility between Iran and Saudi Arabia, following the execution by the Saudis of Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr after being convicted in court of being a terrorist. ( "4-Jan-16 World View -- Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran as violent Shia protests spread around region")
The tables have turned on Iran with Sunday's attack in Damascus, in the back yard of Iran's ally, Bashar al-Assad. Iran's Foreign Ministry did not issue any statement condemning Bashar al-Assad after the Damascus attack. Instead, Syria's Ambassador Bashar Jaafari blamed the Saudi government and its alleged links to ISIS for the attack.
The area was heavily protected and was supposed to be safe. After the first suicide bomber exploded people gathered around to see what had happened, and then two more suicide bombers exploded. The heavily populated area of southern Damascus is a site of pilgrimage for Shias from Iran, Lebanon and other parts of the Muslim world. The Sayyida Zeinab shrine is one of the holiest in Shia Islam, as it houses graves from the time of the Prophet Mohammed. The area is also the stronghold of several Shia militias.
ISIS and other Sunni jihadists say that Shia Islam is an apostasy, and many Sunni jihadists groups have pledged to exterminate the Shias. More attacks on Shia targets are to be expected. Vice News and Gulf News and Al Manar
A week ago, I wrote "25-Jan-16 World View -- Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva", as the Geneva talks were beginning. The ISIS attack on the historic Damascus shrine deals another blow.
There's a great deal about the Geneva "peace talks" in the last week that can be mocked, but there's also an increasing feeling of anxiety and desperation about what's going on in the Mideast.
On Sunday morning, I heard al-Jazeera's senior political analyst Marwan Bishara say, "The Mideast is falling apart. This is not an exaggeration. The Mideast is falling apart." Almost every analyst and politician who expresses any opinion says that they don't expect much from the peace talks, as there have already been several failures in the past.
The Bashar al-Assad regime and the Iranians are making it clear that they have no intention of conceding anything. With the Russian bombing going on, the al-Assad regime is gaining strength on the ground, though not enough to win. Furthermore, the Iranians refer to the al-Assad opposition as all "terrorists," and suggest that they won't concede anything to terrorists anyway.
This is the attitude that caused ISIS to be formed in the first place. The Shia/Alawite al-Assad regime started massacring and slaughtering innocent Sunni women and children in 2011 when they were peacefully protesting. This triggered one of the most spectacular events of my lifetime -- tens of thousands young Sunni men from countries around the world, from south Asia to Pakistan to the Mideast to northern Africa and up to Russia's Caucasus region, joined by many young men from Europe and even the U.S., traveled to Syria to fight al-Assad, even leading to the creation of ISIS.
So now, the Shia/Alawite al-Assad regime is still calling anyone who disagrees with them "terrorists," and it continues its policy of extermination of all Sunnis. This is exactly the attitude that caused ISIS to be created in the first place. And now the Shia/Alawite al-Assad regime is being joined by the Orthodox Christian Vladimir Putin regime from Russia to further inflame the jihadists. As I've said in the past, the Three Satans of our time are Bashar al-Assad, Russia's Vladimir Putin, and Iran's Seyed Ali Khamenei. These Three Satans are entirely to blame for the mass slaughter of hundreds of thousands of innocent people, creating ISIS, and triggering the flight of millions of refugees to Europe.
So coming back to the Geneva meeting, the drama all week was that the al-Assad opposition "rebel" groups are unable to select negotiators to attend the Geneva negotiations. They point out that the Russians are still bombing and slaughtering entire neighborhoods of innocent people, something was supposed to stop before the negotiations began. They say that they're unable to negotiate with someone whose warplanes are trying to kill them. And indeed, the al-Assad regime has no intention of negotiating with them either.
The opposition groups are under tremendous pressure from the Americans and other Westerners to attend the Geneva "peace talks," whether they like it or not.
The "peace talks" are futile for many reasons, and the two attacks on Shia shrines over the weekend illustrate one of the major ones. Iran and al-Assad are not going to end their slaughter of innocent Sunnis, but even if they did and there was a so-called political solution, ISIS and other jihadist groups would still be intent on exterminating Shias and attacking the Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad regime.
More and more analysts and politicians are anxiously reaching the same conclusion that Marwan Bishara did -- that the Mideast is actually falling apart. Al-Jazeera and AFP and Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Feb-16 World View -- Damascus terror attack deals a new blow to Syria 'peace talks' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Feb-2016)
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