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North Korea nuclear test expected after three botched missile tests
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A bombshell Supreme Court ruling is invalidating Australia's policy for dealing with refugees. However, the bombshell was not from Australia's Supreme Court. It was from the Supreme Court of Papua New Guinea (PNG). The ruling says that Australia's refugee detention center on PNG's Manus Island is inhumane, and must be shut down.
In past years, thousands of refugees from Asia have traveled by boat to Australia, often after paying huge sums to human traffickers, hoping to resettle there. Australia has dealt with the situation, starting in 2001, by setting up two "detention centers," one on PNG's Manus Island and one on Nauru, under agreements reached with both countries. Australia intercepts the boat people while at sea, and redirects them to the detention centers.
These two detention centers have been enormously controversial, with numerous stories of beatings, torture, and sexual abuse at the detention centers. The detention centers were shut down in 2007, but reinstated when the number refugees and asylum seeks surged again into the thousands.
There is not yet any timetable for the closing of the Manus Island center, but Australia is just weeks away from a national election. The entire policy for processing refugees and asylum seekers is now in chaos and is sure to be a major campaign issue.
Lawyers for 850 asylum seekers held at Manus Island said on Friday they planned to seek potentially billions of Australian dollars in compensation. Sydney Morning Herald and Guardian (London) and Reuters
According to a 2013 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Australia and PNG:
"8. Australia may Transfer and Papua New Guinea will accept Transferees from Australia under this MOU. ...10. Persons to be transferred to Papua New Guinea are those persons who:
- have travelled irregularly by sea to Australia; or
- have been intercepted at sea by the Australian authorities in the course of trying to reach Australia by irregular means; and
- are authorised by Australian law to be transferred to Papua New Guinea; and
- have undergone a short health, security and identity check in Australia.
11. Papua New Guinea will host a Processing Centre or Processing Centers in Manus Province and may host other Processing Centers in Papua New Guinea for the purposes of this MOU."
However, the PNG Supreme Court has invalidated the agreement with its bombshell decision:
"It was the joint efforts of the Australian and PNG governments that has seen the asylum seekers brought into PNG and kept at the Manus Island Processing Centre against their will. These arrangements were outside the constitutional and legal framework in PNG. ... The forceful bringing into and detention of the asylum seekers on MIPC is unconstitutional and is therefore illegal."
Peter Dutton, Australia's Minister for Immigration and Border Protection, issued a statement saying that it's PNG's problem, not Australia's:
"This is a decision of the Supreme Court of Papua New Guinea. Australia was not a party to the legal proceedings. It does not alter Australia’s border protection policies – they remain unchanged. No one who attempts to travel to Australia illegally by boat will settle in Australia.The Government will not allow a return to the chaos of the years of the Rudd-Gillard Labor Governments when regional processing was initiated to deal with the overwhelming illegal arrivals of more than 50,000 people. The agreement with Papua New Guinea to establish the Manus Island RPC was negotiated by the Labor Government.
Those in the Manus Island Regional Processing Centre found to be refugees are able to resettle in Papua New Guinea. Those found not to be refugees should return to their country of origin. People who have attempted to come illegally by boat and are now in the Manus facility will not be settled in Australia."
However, this announcement by Dutton was unwelcome in PNG, where the PNG prime minister, Peter O’Neill said, "Respecting this ruling, Papua New Guinea will immediately ask the Australian government to make alternative arrangements for the asylum seekers currently held at the regional processing center." Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Australia Minister for Immigration and Border Protection and Guardian (London)
North Korea on Thursday launched two intermediate range ballistic missiles, in missile tests that were both apparent failures. They came two weeks after another botched missile test, launched on April 15, the birthday of North Korean founding father Kim Il-sung.
It's believed that North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un rushed the three missile tests in order to show off regime accomplishments prior to the Seventh Party Congress, which convenes on May 6.
Because all three missile tests were botched, it's now thought Kim will order a nuclear test just prior to May 6.
In other news, Kim has ordered a massive crackdown on its people, and has tightened security along its border with China. The regime also has been restricting entry into the capital Pyongyang and has ordered residents not to hold ceremonial occasions such as weddings or funerals. According to one source:
"The North has completely blocked its capital and the border area after declaring a special surveillance period. The regime is conducting random inspections of houses in Pyongyang and ordering visitors, including relatives, to immediately return to their own homes."
Security forces are also inspecting factories and institutes, checking when workers come to and leave work. The harsh new security measures are apparently intended to combat Kim's anxieties that unexpected violence could embarrass him prior to the party congress. Joongang (Seoul) and Yonhap (Seoul) and Korea Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Apr-16 World View -- Papua New Guinea Supreme Court bombshell throws Australia's refugee policy into chaos thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Apr-2016)
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Bank of Japan shocks investors with no stimulus, leading to global stock selloff
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The air force of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad appears on Thursday to have deliberately targeted a hospital in Aleppo with airstrikes, killing dozens of doctors and children.
According to US Secretary of State John Kerry, "It appears to have been a deliberate strike on a known medical facility and follows the Assad regime's appalling record of striking such facilities and first responders. These strikes have killed hundreds of innocent Syrians."
Destroying a hospital is typical of Bashar al-Assad. This is a man who gets obvious pleasure from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their fingernails, or send missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping barrel bombs laden with metal and chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Bashar al-Assad is the greatest genocidal monster in today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao Zedong and Stalin from the last century. There is no mass weapon of destruction, nor any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to satisfy his psychopathy.
The news today is that officials are complaining that the Syria "peace process" is hanging by a thread, in the words of Staffan de Mistura, the UN envoy to Syria. But these officials are paid to live in a fantasy world of denial. As I've written many times, no one seriously believed that there was any sort of actual peace process going on. And as I've written many times, any movement to peace is impossible with al-Assad in power in Syria, because he's determined to keep dropping barrel bombs with chemical weapons on Sunni civilians until every Sunni in Syria is exterminated.
The reason that Thursday's airstrike on the Aleppo is significant news is that its sheer brutality and savageness makes it clear to even officials in denial that al-Assad has no intention of entering into any peace agreement.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, al-Assad may be making a fundamental error, by not understanding the differences between generational eras.
Syria's last generational crisis war was the civil war that climaxed in 1982 with the massacre at Hama. There was a massive uprising of the 400,000 mostly Sunni citizens of Hama against Syria's president Hafez al-Assad, the current president's father. In February, 1982, al-Assad turned the town to rubble, 40,000 deaths and 100,000 expelled. Hama stands as a defining moment in the Middle East. It is regarded as perhaps the single deadliest act by any Arab government against its own people in the modern Middle East. But once the Hama was destroyed, the anti-government movement against Hafaz al-Assad pretty much ended. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this was a generational crisis war climax, like the nuking of Hiroshima at the climax of World War II, bringing the war to an end.
Now Bashar al-Assad may believe that he's in a similar situation in Aleppo. It's quite possible -- even quite likely -- that al-Assad intends to turn the city of Aleppo to rubble, and then gain a complete victory, as his father did in 1982.
But that kind of climax with that kind of outcome can occur only in a generational Crisis era. Today, Syria is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s. And in this generational era, the destruction of Aleppo will bring at most a temporary halt to the fighting, not the total surrender that al-Assad is delusionally hoping for. Al Monitor and CNN and United Nations
With Japan's economy in a deep slump, most analysts expected the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to add stimulus to the economy by one form or another of "printing money" -- by increasing its purchase of bonds ("quantitative easing") or by lowering the interest rate, which is already negative, to make it even more negative.
Instead, the BOJ announced on Thursday that it would not add any new stimulus to the economy at all at the present time. This was a shock to investors, who responded by selling off stocks, causing the Tokyo Stock Exchange Nikkei index to plummet 3.6%. This triggered a world wide selloff on Thursday, though generally not as deep as the Nikkei selloff.
The Bank of Japan adopted negative interest rates three months ago, in what was considered a move of desperation. ( "30-Jan-16 World View -- Japan tries negative interest rates as US economy slows") But that move has been ineffective in promoting economic growth, so the BOJ may have decided that another stimulus move wouldn't make any difference. Actually, not adding stimulus did make a difference of a kind that wasn't expected.
Using stimulus over and over to push up the stock market cannot work forever. By the Law of Diminishing Returns, each new injection of stimulus will have a smaller effect that then previous injection.
What this illustrates is the dependence in today's world of stock markets on central banks. No one serious believes any more that the stock market is meaningfully related to a country's economy. The stock markets today are being held up by the central banks -- by the BOJ in Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve in America.
The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% in December, and that move is widely thought to have harmed the US economy. Today, just about the only stories important to financial media are the debates over whether the Fed is going to raise rates again, or whether it will reverse the December increase.
As we reported last week, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio has rocket above 24, its highest value in years. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower. Bloomberg and ZeroHedge and Law of Diminishing Returns
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Apr-16 World View -- Syria's air force deliberately targets hospital in Aleppo, killing dozens thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Apr-2016)
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Female suicide bomber attacks Bursa in northwestern Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A female suicide bomber blew herself up in the Turkish city of Bursa on Wednesday, wounding 13 people. Reports indicate that the bomber was a 25 year old woman.
Turkey has been suffering from a string of terrorist attacks on large cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. The attacks have been perpetrated both by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and also by the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
As I reported yesterday, the PKK has promised to escalate its war against the government of Turkey. Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu responded that "Turkey will be saved soon from this terrorism problem completely," presumably by military action against the PKK.
However, as yet, no one has claimed credit for Wednesday's suicide attack on Bursa.
Bursa was the first capital of the Ottoman Empire.
Today, it's a large commercial city, but still is built around the mosques, mausoleums and other sites from its incarnation from its Ottoman ancestry. The bombing took place near Bursa's historic Grand Mosque, built between 1396-99. Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and AFP and Bursa's Grand Mosque
Austria's Parliament on Wednesday voted a set of harsh regulations to stem the flow of migrants crossing the border from Italy.
According to the law:
It's thought that the Parliament passed the law in response to an overwhelming victory by the far-right Freedom Party in the first round of Austria's presidential elections on Sunday.
Human Rights Watch is denouncing the new laws as "a blow to the rights of asylum seekers."
Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi posted a statement saying:
"The possibility of closing the Brenner Pass is blatantly against European rules, as well as against history, against logic and against the future."
There are large refugee camps in Greece on the border with Macedonia, and in Calais, France, near to entrance to the Euro tunnel to Britain. As migrants enter Italy after crossing the Mediterranean Sea from Libya, we may eventually see a large camp of migrants on Italy's border with Austria. The Local (Austria) and Guardian (London) and France 24 and The Local (Italy) and Breitbart News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Apr-16 World View -- Austria votes to close border with Italy to slow refugees thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Apr-2016)
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Violence spreads across Turkey as both Turkey and PKK escalate fight
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Ever since the cease-fire agreement between Turkey and the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) broke down last year in July, the violence on both sides has been escalating. The PKK has conducted terrorist attacks, while the Turkish military has attacked PKK havens in southeast Turkey and northeastern Iraq.
In an interview with the BBC, PKK leader Cemil Bayik blamed Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the surge in fighting, promised to escalate the terrorist attacks on Turkish targets even further:
"He [President Erdogan] wants the Kurds to surrender. If they don't surrender, he wants to kill all Kurds. He says this openly - he doesn't hide it.The Kurds will defend themselves to the end, so long as this is the Turkish approach - of course the PKK will escalate the war. Not only in Kurdistan, but in the rest of Turkey as well."
We don’t want to divide Turkey. We want to live within the borders of Turkey on our own land freely... The struggle will continue until the Kurds’ innate rights are accepted."
The PKK has been engaged in violence with Turkey's government for three decades. The PKK and Turkey agreed to a cease-fire and a "peace process" in 2013, but that broke down abruptly last year following the July 20 terrorist attack in the city of attack on Suruç killing 33 people, mostly young pro-Kurdish activists. After that, the ceasefire agreement broke down, and Erdogan declared war on the PKK. ( "9-Sep-15 World View -- Turkey slips into chaos as violence spreads across the country")
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu responded to Bayik's interview with the BBC:
"Nobody should doubt it. This fight, which we will carry out until Turkey saves itself from the problem of terrorism, will continue without rupture. Hopefully, as a result of this determined fight, Turkey will be saved soon from this terrorism problem completely.Unfortunately, the international community cannot give a good account of itself and a hypocritical attitude is still embraced on the issue of terrorism. Tents of a brutal terrorist organization might be erected in European capitals and their rags [flags] might be displayed."
Davutoglu was alluding to a tent set up by PKK supporters in front of the European Council building, just two days after a major terrorist attack on Ankara on March 13, as Davutoglu was visiting Brussels. It was only after the terrorist attack on Brussels on March 22 that Belgian police ordered the tent to be taken down, but then it was set up again elsewhere. Turkish officials were furious that PKK supporters were permitted to publicize their cause just after a terrorist attack.
The PKK is listed as a terrorist group by the US and the EU. However, the Kurds are also a major US ally in Iraq and Syria, fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The US distinguishes between the PKK versus Kurdish militias fighting ISIS, but Turkey considers all of them to be terrorists, resulting in policy conflicts with the West.
The new statements by Davutoglu and Bayik suggest that the fighting is going to escalate.
As we've been saying since 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war between Arabs and Jews, between Sunnis and Shias, and between various ethnic groups. It seems now that every week brings this prediction a major step closer. BBC and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
It is now all but certain that Puerto Rico will default on a $422 million debt payment due on May 1.
In January, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) promised that legislative action would be completed by the end of March to resolve Puerto Rico's problems before the May 1 deadline. However, Ryan has failed to accomplish this.
Puerto Rico faces $70 billion in total debt, a 45 percent poverty rate and a shrinking population, all of which threaten to cause its economy to collapse.
In many ways, Puerto Rico has gotten a free ride from Congress for years. Congress granted Puerto Rico investments a "triple-tax free" tax rate. This means that you can invest in Puerto Rico's bonds and earn 10% interest every year, and not have to pay federal, state or municipal tax on the interest you collect. There were other major tax benefits granted exclusively to those investing in Puerto Rico.
The money that investors paid for these bonds has been essentially "free money" to Puerto Rico, since nobody apparently believed that it would ever have to be paid back. As a result, Puerto Rico has felt free to spend huge amounts of money on social programs, with bills that are finally coming due.
Detroit defaulted on its debt several years ago, but it didn't really hurt too many people, because the bankrupt debt was $18 billion, and few ordinary people owned Detroit bonds, as most investors were institutions that hedged their purchases with credit default swaps.
A Puerto Rican debt default is likely to be much more widespread. The triple-tax free 10% interest deal has drawn massive amounts of money from 401k's and other ordinary investment funds. These funds will all lose significant principal in a Puerto Rico default.
Under US law, Puerto Rico does not have Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection that Detroit had. A legislative solution would involve a bankruptcy-like restructuring of Puerto Rico's debt. The Republicans are generally supporting the bondholders, the people who invested in the triple-tax free 10% bonds, who are fiercely resisting any restructuring, claiming that the only reason that they purchased the bonds in the first place was because the law made such restructuring impossible. Or if some kind of bailout is authorized, then Republicans want to impose harsh fiscal discipline on the island.
Democrats generally want to bail out Puerto Rico with few fiscal constraints. However, such a bailout would permit the government to resuming borrowing money and spending it, resulting in a continuing crisis.
One side effect of Puerto Rico's economic crisis is that it's accelerated the migration of Puerto Ricans to the mainland U.S. If no legislation is passed by July 1, then Puerto Rico will default on $2 billion in payments due at that time, causing the economy to spiral further into crisis.
Puerto Rico and Greece have in common that there is no solution to their respective financial crises. Reuters and Washington Post and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Apr-16 World View -- Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1 thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Apr-2016)
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Obama administration tries to find money to save Obamacare
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As we've been reporting since October, Britain's National Health Service (NHS) is facing an existential crisis, with a huge and accelerating deficit expected to reach 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) by 2020. ( "5-Aug-15 World View -- Britain's National Health Service (NHS) faces existential financial crisis")
Now the NHS is facing a massive strike from "junior doctors," after Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has said he's unwilling to compromise on a contract that would increase working hours. Junior doctors, the backbone of the NHS, whose workday now ends at 7 pm, would have the workday extended to 10 pm. Also, for the first time, their normal working week would include Saturday from 7am to 5pm. The strike is scheduled to last 48 hours, on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The system is deeply corrupt, with doctors falsifying records, claiming for work that was never done, or putting in for bogus overtime. Dentistry services are so bad that people are buying "do-it-yourself (DIY) dentistry kits" to take care of their whole families, as was done centuries ago.
Because the NHS bureaucracy is so old and bloated, and because the services are "free," costs can only be controlled by rationing, queuing, reduced quality and artificial cost suppression. UK's doctors earn far less than doctors in other countries, and UK specialists earn about half of what they do in America. As a result, UK's homegrown doctors have left to work in other countries, and NHS has had to import 28% of its doctors from abroad, usually from poorer countries where low UK salaries look attractive.
The junior doctors are demonstrating against the contract for the obvious reasons -- low pay, exhaustion, having little free time to spend with their families. A substantial number are considering leaving Britain to practice medicine in other countries, according to a poll.
However, women's groups are particularly concerned because of the disproportionate impact that the contract will have on women. Men are used to working long hours, but women often have to go home on time to take care of the children. An analysis by the Department of Health agrees that the new contract "impacts disproportionately on women." When the new contract going into effect in August, many women will be forced to quit unless they can find adequate child care, and child care services are extremely expensive.
The far left British Medical Association, which is leading the strike action, has launched a judicial review of the legality of the contract, because it adversely affects women.
However, the Department of Health says that women should stop complaining, because the new contract levels the playing field between men and women, which is what feminists want. According to a Department of Health spokeswoman:
"This contract is a huge step forward for achieving fairness for all trainee doctors. For the first time, junior doctors will be paid and rewarded solely on the basis of their own hard work and achievement. That is ultimately what employers and the BMA [British Medical Association] themselves want and everyone deserves: a level playing field."
Guardian (London) and BBC and Guardian and Daily Mail (London)
The "Brexit" debate, and the June 23 referendum to decide whether Britain will exit from the European Union, is being tied politically to the NHS financial crisis and the strike by junior doctors.
There are two sides to the story. One side says that if Britain leaves the European Union, then it would help the NHS financially. They argue that leaving the EU would mean that Britain could shut the door to migrants from other European countries, especially Hungary and other east European countries, who come to the UK to receive free medical services. In addition, they say that 50 million pounds per day is being sent to Brussels, and that money could be kept at home to pour into the NHS.
The other side says that if Britain leaves the European Union, then it would hurt the NHS financially. They say that health tourism -- where people travel to the UK to get free medical help -- costs less than 0.1% of the NHS budget. They point out that Norway and Switzerland, who are not in the EU, still must pay similar amounts to fund their cumbersome arrangements with the EU market. Telegraph (London) and BBC and Independent (London)
On the afternoon of October 1, 2013, President Obama stood up at a press conference to launch Obamacare. When a reporter asked why so few people could log on, he answered that millions of people were enrolling for insurance, so the web sites were slow. As it turned out, only six people across the country were able to enroll on that day. How is it possible that Obama and the entire White House were so completely blindsided by the disaster that was already unfolding that they didn't even know what was going on hours after the launch had begun? How many people had to lie? How many people had to commit fraud? How many people had to be silenced or fired? How many layers of management were lied to, to prevent Obama from knowing the size of the disaster, hours after the disaster was already in progress?
To answer these questions, I spent months interviewing a number of people, including contractors, whistleblowers, analysts, and others, and I posted the article "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history". The reason that healthcare.gov was a disaster was that each of the web sites was a $10-20 million software development project, but the Obama administration funded each web site with something like $200 million. So when a company like CGI Corp. receives $200 million for a $10 million project, the objective is to spend the money. So they hired hundreds of programmers, most of whom were completely incompetent. So they spent the money, but couldn't develop the web site.
As part of that project, I also looked into all the other components of Obamacare -- the exchanges, the co-ops, and the risk corridors. And as I described in the article, all of them were financial disasters. Many have gone bankrupt, and others are staying afloat only because the Obama administration is finding ways to take money from other projects and pour it into the Obamacare black hole.
The Obama administration started by taking a $730 billion Medicare fund and using it to fund Obamacare. Millions of people have been paying for years into the system to create that fund, and Obama threw it into the toilet. The co-ops and exchanges had operated at big losses, thinking that the administration would bail them out, but Congress blocked the administration from taking money from a number of other projects.
The administration is looking for more ways to bail out Obamacare co-ops and exchanges, and reports indicate that they're now planning to use a "reinsurance" mechanism in the enabling legislation that permit Obama to take money from some insurers and give it to others. Using that mechanism is supposed to be illegal, but that hasn't stopped the Obama administration before.
UnitedHealth Group Inc., the country's largest health insurer, has announced that that they are losing so much money on Obamacare exchanges that they will leave the exchanges in at least 22 states where the company sold plans for this year. Not all states have been named, but they include Florida, Kansas, Texas, North Carolina and Maryland.
There are 27 million people still uninsured, even though the administration claims that 22 million more people have insurance now than before Obamacare, but that claim is fraudulent. Millions more are effectively uninsured either because they're on Medicaid and can't find a doctor that accepts Medicaid or they're on an Obamacare plan with a deductible of $5,000 to $15,000, and have to pay their own medical expenses anyway, in addition to the premiums.
Blue Cross Blue Shield has done an in-depth study of medical claims in 2014 and 2015, and found that members who newly enrolled in BCBS individual health plans in 2014 and 2015 have higher rates of certain diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, depression, coronary artery disease, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and Hepatitis C than individuals who had BCBS individual coverage prior to health care reform.
For example, new enrollees have rates of HIV and Hepatitis C of 41 and 24 per 10,000 respectively, compared to 12 and 10 respectively among those with individual policies prior to Obamacare. Rates of HIV and Hepatitis C for those who receive insurance through their employers were 11 per 10,000 for both conditions.
These figures support the view that many people enroll in Obamacare when they get sick, and then drop out when they get well. Few people see any point in making premium payments if they're going to be effectively uninsured.
A new report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office indicates that Obamacare costs are 10% higher than the CBO predicted a year ago. What Obamacare and Britain's NHS have in common is that both of them are in financial death spirals that cannot be sustained. Chicago Tribune and Blue Cross Blue Shield and The Beacon and The Hill and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Apr-16 World View -- Obamacare continues death spiral as Britain's NHS faces strike thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Apr-2016)
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Sudan and Tunisia prepare for simultaneous protests in solidarity
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With large protests expected in Cairo on Monday, Egypt's government is conducting a security crackdown. At least 47 arrest warrants have been issued since Thursday, and dozens of citizens have been arrested without notice from cafes and private residences. Security forces threatened the families of people who were not at home at the time of the attempted arrest.
The crackdowns are targeting bloggers and journalists who have been critical of the government of president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, especially the recent agreement with Saudi Arabia that gave up two Red Sea islands in exchange for $22 billion in investments.
Those who are arrested are facing charges of inciting illegal protests, affiliation with a banned organization, attempting to overthrow the regime, promoting false news and information aimed at disturbing public order. Some are accused of "to threatening to use violence against the president of the republic while he is acting within his constitutional authorities." Daily News Egypt and AP
Some of the largest protests in years, reminiscent of the protests that brought down Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011, are expected on Monday, the anniversary of Sinai Liberation Day, referring to the "liberation" of Sinai from Israel.
Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is warning of "chaos" and "destabilization attempts" over the planned demonstrations and protests planned for Monday by opposition political parties and movements. In a nationally televised speech, al-Sisi said:
"I see there are people calling once again for damage to [Egypt's] security and stability. Our responsibility is to protect security and stability, and I promise Egyptians that no one will terrorize them again.Still there are evil powers that aim to destabilize stability and safety inside Egypt. Over the last three years, we have succeeded in establishing state institutions, such as the parliament, constitution and presidency. The survival of these institutions means the survival of Egypt. ...
Security services ... will confront with extreme rigor any attempt to disturb public order."
Al-Sisi is deploying hundreds of troops to maintain peace, and is warning that a repeat of large past protests will be punished.
Monday is Sinai Liberation Day, commemorating April 25, 1982, when all Israeli forces were withdrawn from the Sinai Peninsula, and the land was returned to Egyptian control.
The call for protests was triggered by a historical coincidence. Egypt and Saudi Arabia recently signed a deal to build a bridge over the Red Sea connecting the two countries, and there have already been a day of protests on April 15. ( "16-Apr-16 World View -- Egypt-Saudi deal for Red Sea bridge triggers massive protests in Cairo")
The deal called for Saudi Arabia to invest $22 billion development projects in Egypt. The deal also called for Egypt to give two disputed Red Sea islands, the Sanafir and Tiran islands, to Saudi Arabia. The coincidence of giving up sovereignty in the two islands just days before the celebration of regaining sovereignty from Israel of the Sinai Peninsula triggered a nationalist fury in many Egyptians.
A petition titled "Egypt is not for sale," which calls for a reversal of the decision on the islands and supports the protests, was signed by more than 300 Egyptian novelists, lawyers and activists. However, the anger of the protesters goes far beyond the loss of the two islands. After the 2011 Arab Awakening, Egyptians had hoped and prayed that a new government would not only bring stability to the country, but would also improve human rights, end abuses by security forces, and end government corruption.
None of these hopes has been realized. The number of jihadist terrorist attacks has been increasing, security forces are as brutal and abusive as ever, and protesters say that government corruption is as bad as ever.
With some activists promoting violence, and with the security forces prepared to respond to violence with violence, it's possible that the protests could spiral out of control and even put al-Sisi's presidency in danger. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Egyptian Streets and AP
Tunisian activists have called for protests in front of the Egyptian Embassy in Tunis on Monday, in solidarity with the protests planned for Cairo. According to the statement, "We reject the arrests carried out recently by President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi against the Egyptian people in an attempt to thwart the 25 April movement organized by a group of revolutionary forces in Egypt."
Since Egypt has just given two islands to Saudi Arabia, Sudan is hoping that Egypt will concede in another border dispute. The Halayeb and Shalateen Triangle is part of the shared border between Egypt and Sudan. Egypt says that the 8,000 square mile region has fallen within Egypt's borders since 1820, when Muhammad Ali, the Ottoman ruler of Egypt, put Sudan under his political authority. On the other hand, Sudan says that an 1899 agreement between the two countries grants the region to Sudan. But Egypt points out that a 1909 joint Egyptian-Sudanese map puts the territory inside Egypt. But Sudan points out that Sudan had sovereign control over the region from 1899 to 1958, a period during which Sudan governed the area uninterrupted and without objection.
There have been threats of war over the disputed region, but both sides say that they hope to resolve the dispute through peaceful negotiations. Daily News Egypt and Anadolu (Ankara)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Apr-16 World View -- Largest protests in years planned for Cairo Egypt on Monday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Apr-2016)
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Europe goes on charm offensive with Turkey on migrant deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The EU-Turkey migrant deal is receiving a lot of criticism from human rights groups, who claim that it violates international law to send migrants back to Turkey after they'd risked their lives traveling to Greece.
However, Turkey's prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu bragged on Saturday that the EU-Turkey deal had been extremely successful, since it had drastically cut the number of migrants traveling from Turkey to Greece.
Donald Tusk, the president of the European Commission, agreed, and praised Turkey further:
"Today Turkey is the best example for the whole world for how we should treat refugees.“No one has a right to lecture Turkey on what it should do, I am really proud that you are my partner and I am absolutely sure that we will succeed… We have no other way! ...
The way I see it, Turkey has made good progress ahead of decisions to be taken this summer provided that Turkey meets all the agreed benchmarks."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel also praised Turkey, for issuing work permits to refugees, so that they can earn a living. Merkel also reversed an earlier position, and said that she now favors Turkey's proposals to set up "safe zones" in northern Syria where displaced Syrians can live and receive humanitarian aid.
The charm offensive took place on Saturday during a visit to the Nizip refugee camp in Gaziantep province, southeastern Turkey. Merkel and Tusk led a European delegation to visit the camp, and hold a press conference to sell the EU-Turkey migrant deal to doubters.
However, Davutoglu also made clear that the EU-Turkey deal would be canceled if the EU did not fulfill its side of the deal -- easing visa restrictions, so that Turkish citizens can travel freely through Europe's Schengen zone without a visa:
"We see the visa exemption as an inseparable, fundamental part of the EU-Turkey agreement. Readmission agreement applies only with visa exemption."
There are strong voices of opposition to the visa easing within EU member countries. As part of the EU-Turkey deal, the EU committed to removing the visa restriction by June, and so this could become a major political crisis in the next few weeks.
A number of other problems with the EU-Turkey deal remain to be solved. The EU had promised Greece that EU member countries would send a staff of 2,300 experts -- police, case officers, judges, and language interpreters -- to help process asylum requests, and only a few of the staff have arrived. Also, approved Syrian refugees are to be distributed to the EU member countries, but many EU nations are stalling or refusing to accept more migrants. Anadolu Agency (Turkey) and BBC and AP and Anadolu Agency
Rezaul Karim Siddique, an English professor at Rajshahi University in Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, was hacked to death 50 meters from his home, when he went to catch a bus to campus around 7:30 on Saturday morning. The brutal killing was similar to increasingly frequent killings, mainly of secular or atheist bloggers, or any other media people who they believe pose a threat to their fundamentalist Islamic teachings and lifestyle.
The new killing is particularly shocking because Siddique was a religious Muslim, and had not put forward secular or atheistic opinions.
As we reported just three weeks ago, Bangladesh is spawning a new, younger generation of jihadist terrorists who are highly educated and tech-savvy. Leading these terror groups is Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), which has taken responsibility for several hacking deaths.
The ISIS-linked Amaq News Agency posted the following message on its web site:
"Source to Amaq Agency: Islamic State fighters assassinate a university teacher for calling to atheism in the city of Rajshahi in Bangladesh. Amaq Agency"
It's hard to know what to make of this claim, since Bangladesh is geographically very remote from Syria. It's possible that the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is taking credit for something it didn't do. It's also possible that the murder was perpetrated by ABT or some other jihadist group that was planning to pledge allegiance to ISIS.
However, another news report quotes local police as saying that "Though his murder was initially claimed by Islamist radicals, police later ruled out that possibility. Police said he was murdered as a sequel to personal rivalry." Dhaka Tribune and AP and Amaq Agency (ISIS) and BDNews24 (Dhaka)
After the murder on April 8 of student activist Nazimuddin Samad, who was hacked and shot to death by three assailants riding motorcycles, the US State Department offered to help, according to spokesman Mark Toner:
"We've offered assistance to the Bangladeshi government, collaboration on the investigations, FBI assistance.These are horrific attacks. We urge the Bangladeshi authorities to take them very seriously."
In March 2009, the FBI was asked to help investigate an extremely brutal mutilation and massacre of 76 Bangladesh army officers by border guards under their command. ( "(4-March-2009) FBI will aid Bangladesh investigation of border guard officer massacre") In the end, a total of 847 defendants were tried, en masse, and 152 sentenced to hang, with hundreds more facing long jail terms.
Bangladesh's last generational crisis war was the incredibly bloody and brutal 1971 civil war that made the former state of East Pakistan into the independent nation of Bangladesh.
As I wrote in detail in my 2009 article, the war was between two ethnic groups, both Muslim.
One group were the Muslim Biharis ("Urdu-walla" or Urdu speaking) from northern India, a "market-dominant minority," only 12% of t he population, controlling the government and major businesses. The other group were the Bengalis, a poor majority, speaking the Bengali language, working at menial tasks in the employ of the Urdu-speaking minority.
So the 2009 massacre was an echo of the 1971 civil war, with the poor, majority, lower-caste ethnic Bengali border guards massacring the market-dominant minority high-caste Biharis.
Now we have a new series of brutal massacres going on. The news reports do not indicate that ethnicity of the people involved, but (going out on a limb) it would seem likely that a college professor was a Bihari, and the murderers were Bengalis. If news reports provide further information supporting or contradicting this assessment, then I'll report it.
Earlier in this article, I quoted a news story that said, "Police said he was murdered as a sequel to personal rivalry." In other words, it's very likely that Saturday's slaughter was related to the 1971 war between Biharis and Bengalis, rather than a jihadist attack by ISIS, and that ISIS was claiming credit for something they had nothing to do with, making them typical politicians.
The FBI has offered to help with the investigation, but this isn't an Agatha Christie murder mystery that can be solved by clever sleuthing, or even a CSI murder mystery that can be solved by running DNA tests. It's something runs deep in the core of Bangladeshi society, and no real solution exists. VOA and Economist (9-Nov-2013)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Apr-16 World View -- Bangladesh in shock after university professor hacked to death thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Apr-2016)
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S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio rockets to highest value in years
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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175 countries on Friday signed the climate change agreement that was produced a climate change conference in December.
The climate change agreement is total farce for many reasons, including the fact that it's not binding on anyone. The "historic" signing ceremony will be forgotten in a few days, just as December's "historic" climate change conference was forgotten in a few days. There are other things to worry about -- the war in Syria, China's militarization of the South China Sea, Russia's annexation of Crimea, and so forth.
The climate change agreement is more entertainment than anything else. In fact, the main speaker at the signing ceremony: Movie star and entertainer Leonardo DiCaprio. He entertained everyone by making a truly idiotic speech comparing climate change to slavery:
"[Lincoln] was speaking before the U.S. Congress to confront the defining issue of his time: slavery. Remarkably, his words ring as true today when applied to the defining crisis of our time: climate change. ...After 21 years of debates and conferences, it is time to declare: no more talk, no more excuses, no more 10-year studies, no more allowing the fossil fuel companies to manipulate and dictate the science and policies that affect our future."
Blah, blah, blah, on and on.
Entertainment Weekly and VOA and Guardian
Just to make things clear, here are some other things wrong with the climate change hysteria:
In his speech, DiCaprio said he was "absolutely terrified" of climate change, but said nothing about being terrified of the far more likely world war. Daily Caller and From Horse Power to Horsepower and The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 and Great Moments in Failed Predictions
President Obama has moved on to Britain, having completed his task in Saudi Arabia of lecturing the Saudi King that he needs to learn to "share the neighborhood" with Iran. ( "21-Apr-16 World View -- Saudi King Salman snubs Obama - again - as he arrives for Saudi Arabia summit")
In Britain, he discussed the June 23 "Brexit" referendum on whether Britain should leave the European Union. Obama made it clear that he wants Brexit to be rejected, and he threatened the government with regard to the question of a possible US-UK trade agreement if Brexit occurs. According to Obama, referring to the pro-Brexit politicians in Britain:
"They are voicing an opinion about what the United States is going to do, I figured you might want to hear from the president of the United States what I think the United States is going to do.And on that matter, for example, I think it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done.
The UK is going to be in the back of the queue."
Analysts are undecided as to whether Obama's threat helps the pro-Brexit side or the anti-Brexit side. Guardian (London)
According to Chinese media, the China Shipbuilding Industry Corp is "pushing forward the work" to build floating nuclear power plants in the South China Sea.
China is annexing the entire South China Sea through military means, including regions that have historically belonged to other countries. China has built artificial islands, and is rapidly turning them into large military bases.
However, they need to burn oil or coal for power, and these large military bases are far from home, making transportation costs exorbitant, especially in bad weather. The nuclear power plants would solve the military problem.
Liberal environmentalists rarely criticize China, and are not expected to provide more than perfunctory criticism of this plan, even though an accident could be extremely damaging to the sea life.
A spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry could not comment on the report, since he said that he hadn't read it. Reuters and Gizmodo
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As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (April 22) was at an astronomically high 24.11. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market is growing quickly, and could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.
The rapidly rising P/E ratio is a sure sign of trouble. The last time that the P/E ratio rose above 24 was in April 2008. For the year following, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 50% to the 6000s level in May 2009.
As the stock market was falling, the Federal Reserve began its massive quantitative easing program in December 2008, "printing" new money and pumping it into the banking system, from which it went into the stock market. The P/E ratio fell below 24 again in December 2009.
Since then, the Fed has lowered interest rates almost to zero, and there is talk of negative interest rates, which are already the policy in several other countries, with little effect. ( "11-Mar-16 World View -- In desperation move, European Central Bank further lowers negative interest rates")
If you listen to CNBC or Bloomberg TV, as I do for as long as I can stand it, all they talk about is interest rates set by the Fed and other central banks. No one seriously believes any more that the stock market has any relation to the real economy. As long as the Fed pumps money into the stock market, it will go up; if the Fed stops, then it will go down.
The reason that stock valuations are surging is because earnings (the denominator of the P/E ratio) are plummeting. During the first quarter, earnings have declined 8.9%, with the result that the P/E ratio is pushed up.
The stock market bubble is getting larger and larger, and there's going to be a lot of political pressure for the Fed to pump it even larger, especially from the Obama administration in an election year. But there is no bubble in history that hasn't burst, and this one is no exception. The amount of pain that it will cause will be enormous. Factset Earnings Insight (PDF)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Apr-16 World View -- 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Apr-2016)
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France to launch new Israeli-Palestinian peace process on May 30
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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France will launch a new Israeli-Palestinian peace process on May 30, but without involving the Israelis or the Palestinians.
France will invite ministers from 20 countries to the May 30 conference. The goal of the May 30 meeting was to prepare an international summit in the second half of 2016. In that case, Israel and the Palestinians would finally be invited.
According to France's foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, the goal of the May 30 meeting is clear:
"To build a collective commitment of the international community in preparation for paving a diplomatic horizon for peace. It is in everyone’s interest. The guiding principle is also clear and recognized: The two-state solution. I want to return to the guiding principles of this solution, because there is a tendency not to mention them. We are talking about the State of Israel and the state of Palestine living side by side in peace and security, with secure and recognized borders on the basis of the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem their shared capital."
Here we go again. This is essentially the "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" that was offered by President Bush in 2003. As I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", the plan would not succeed because Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
Since 2003, there have been five Mideast wars: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and July-August 2014.
Beyond that, the Arab Awakening has destabilized countries all around the Mideast, given rise to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and inflamed the sectarian fault lines between Sunnis and Shias from India to Algeria.
But Ayrault is unfazed by all that:
"I did not say it would be easy. The parties are now far apart, maybe more than ever. We have on one side, in Israel, a government that shows more and more ambivalence to the two-state plan... and on the other side the Palestinians, who are not only divided [on this question], but also must address growing anger from their public. And we also have the situation itself — there is no need to mention there have already been two conflicts in six years. Is there an alternative to the plan we are proposing? The only other option is a fatalistic acceptance of conflict. I reject that approach."
So I guess Ayrault will be Pollyannaish, and leave being fatalistic to people like me. Haaretz (Israel) and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Israel National News
Europeans who have been following the American primary elections have expressed astonishment and puzzlement over the complexity of America's election laws. However, they might wish to take a look at the UK elections laws for the June 23 referendum that will decide "Brexit," whether Britain will exit from the European Union.
Nominally, British and Irish citizens will be permitted to vote "yes" or "no" in the referendum. But this simple formula is complicated by two issues.
The first issue is migrants from other countries who are living in Britain. The rule is that even if the migrant is not British or Irish citizen, he can still vote in the referendum, provided that he's from one of the Commonwealth countries. When the British Empire broke up after World War II, it was replaced by the British Commonwealth of Nations, consisting mostly of former British colonies. The Queen is still nominally the head of state for the Commonwealth countries.
I listed the 53 countries in the Commonwealth and some of the controversies surrounding the Commonwealth in a 2007 article, "Pakistan is suspended from the British Commonwealth of Nations".
So this rule has quite a few anomalies. A migrant from France or Italy working in Britain would not be eligible to vote in the referendum. But a migrant from Australia, Bangladesh, Jamaica, Kenya, the Bahamas, Uganda or Zambia would be eligible to vote in the referendum. The only two European countries that are in the Commonwealth are Malta and Cyprus, and so migrants from those countries would be eligible to vote.
Obviously, this situation is raising complaints. According to Lord Green, the founder of the campaign group Migration Watch UK:
"Of course we are not opposed to Commonwealth citizens who are also British citizens having a vote. But if they are not yet British or have decided not to become British it is surely wrong that they should be able to."
The total number of Commonwealth migrants potentially eligible to vote in the referendum is 1.3 million, a number large enough to possibly affect the referendum results.
I said that there were two issues, and the second issue has to do with migration in the other direction. According to the "15 year rule," a citizen of Britain who is living and working in another country is eligible to vote in the referendum only if he's lived in Britain at some time in the last 15 years.
The referendum highlights a particular problem for expats living in another EU country. British citizens living in the EU are also EU citizens, and can live and work in other countries, retire there, and receive health care free at the point of use, paid for by Britain's National Health Service (NHS).
Estimates are that there are 1-2 million expats in this category who moved into another EU country more than 15 years ago. They're unable to vote in the referendum, even though a Brexit "yes" vote could leave them in limbo, because they'd lose their EU citizenship. CNBC and Telegraph (London) and Express (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Apr-16 World View -- Britain debates which migrants can vote in the 'Brexit' referendum thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Apr-2016)
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President Obama to 'clean up leftover messes' in the Mideast
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In May of last year, President Obama invited the leaders of the Arab nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to a meeting at Camp David. Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud snubbed Obama by not attending the meeting. ( "15-May-15 World View -- Obama repudiates the Carter doctrine at bizarre GCC meeting")
Now King Salman has snubbed Obama once again, this time in an even more embarrassing manner, as Obama arrived in Riyadh on Wednesday on Air Force One. King Salman was not there to greet him. Instead, a lower-level official greeted him. Saudi state television did not show Obama's arrival live, but did provide live coverage of the arrival of other Gulf nation leaders -- being greeted by King Salman.
Relations have been worsening ever since President Obama took office, especially when Obama appeared to throw Hosni Mubarak under the bus during the 2011 Arab Awakening. (See "21-May-11 News -- Saudi Arabia advances Gulf Cooperation Council, further cuts U.S. ties.")
Last year, Obama referred to Saudi Arabia as a "so-called ally," because of its opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. Recently, the Saudis were deeply offended when Obama characterized some of his allies as "free riders." ( "15-Mar-16 World View -- Saudi's Prince Faisal sharply rebukes Obama's 'free riders' accusation")
No one should be surprised at all that the Saudis have snubbed and embarrassed Obama twice in two years. Washington Times and CNN
According to a WSJ article that I quoted in July of last year, Obama saw the deal with Iran as a kind of "gateway" to solve all the problems in the Mideast:
"The White House is crafting a Middle East strategy for the remaining 18 months of President Barack Obama’s term that would more forcefully address conflicts in Iraq, Yemen and Syria amid tensions over the conclusion of talks with Iran. ...[S]enior administration officials said the president is intent on cleaning up leftover messes in the region before leaving office in 2017, including relations with key allies that have been strained by the Iran talks."
And this is no joke. Just last week, US Secretary of State was in Kabul Afghanistan, lecturing government leaders how to run their governments. That was just a couple of days before the massive terrorist explosion in Kabul. ( "12-Apr-16 World View -- Troubles mount for Afghanistan government as US withdrawal looms")
So President Obama has been in office for 7-1/2 years, and he apparently believes that he's been so skillful in governing America that he now feels qualified to lecture leaders of any country in the world on what they're doing wrong.
According to reports, that's what he did on Wednesday in his meetings with King Salman in Saudi Arabia. Reports indicate that Obama raised the following issues:
People always criticize me when I criticize Obama, but if these reports are true, then this is about the dumbest thing I've every seen.
The Saudis see Iran as an existential threat. As we've been pointing out for two years, analysts note that the Saudis feel surround by the "Shia Crescent," with Iran dominating control of four capitals -- Tehran Iran, Damascus Syria, Beirut Lebanon (thanks to the Iran-sponsored terror group Hezbollah), and Sanaa Yemen. A fifth under partial control is Baghdad Iraq. Telling the Saudis to "share the neighborhood" with Iran is absurd and offensive.
From the point of view of the Saudis, every one of Obama's "suggestions" makes the situation much worse. The nuclear deal with Iran has removed sanctions and given Iran hundreds of billions of dollars more money to use in sponsoring wars and terrorist acts. Exiting the war in Yemen would give complete control to the Iran-supported Houthis. Apparently Obama has no grasp of any of this, as shown by the fact that the Saudi king has repeatedly snubbed Obama.
Obama supposedly believes that this trip will soothe Saudi-US relations, but it will probably only make relations worse. The Arab world is furious at Obama. Obama's "free riders" statement alone sparked hundreds of scathing articles against him in the Gulf press. Well, we'll be watching to see which country and which leader Obama will be lecturing to next.
However, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this growing US-Saudi estrangement is exactly consistent with what Generational Dynamics has been predicting for years, as I explained in detail in "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal": In the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, the US, India, Russia and Iran would be allies opposing China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the Sunni Muslim countries. BBC and Washington Post and Bloomberg and Memri
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Apr-16 World View -- Saudi King Salman snubs Obama - again - as he arrives for Saudi Arabia summit thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Apr-2016)
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Turkey threatens to cancel migrant deal unless visa restrictions are lifted by June
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Afghanistan's Taliban announced last week the beginning of its "Spring Fighting Season," and launched it on Tuesday with a massive attack on a government security agency on Kabul. The attack combined a suicide car bomb with gunfire, killing 28 people and wounding at least 327.
The attack comes with Afghanistan's government in total chaos, because of the bitter feud between President Ashraf Ghani and the country's chief executive, Abdullah Abdullah. Last week, US Secretary of State John Kerry made a surprise trip to Kabul to instruct Ghani, Abdullah, and the other the politicians on how to run their government. ( "12-Apr-16 World View -- Troubles mount for Afghanistan government as US withdrawal looms")
Putting the best face on it, Ghani said the attack "clearly shows the enemy's defeat in face-to-face battle with Afghan security forces." However, those results have clearly been fixed, with the Afghan scoring military successes in the northern part of the vast country, while the Taliban have been gaining ground in Helmand Province.
For American policy and President Obama's administration, there is one major conundrum: Does the US continue its policy of withdrawing forces from Afghanistan, risking a total collapse in security as happened in Iraq? Or does the US reverse policy and add forces to Afghanistan, thus reneging on Obama's previous commitments? AP and Daily Times (Pakistan) and AFP
China conducted another flight test of its newest and longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile last week. The flight test of the new road-mobile DF-41 missile took place Tuesday with two multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs. This means that a single missile could deliver a nuclear weapon to two separate targets.
As we wrote three weeks ago ( "1-Apr-16 World View -- China close to deploying very long range DF-41 missile"), it's believed that a fully-deployed DF-41 will be able to carry up to 10 MIRVs. A DF-41 can travel over the Pacific Ocean and strike any city in the western US, or travel over the North Pole and strike any city in the eastern US, in each case within about half an hour. China has the manufacturing capacity to produce hundreds of these missiles, and clearly is preparing for war and planning to use them. Washington Free Beacon
Tensions are increasing quickly over a crucial provision of the EU-Turkey migrant deal, whose purpose is to slow the flow of migrants traveling from Turkey to Greece by means of a provision that permits Greece to return migrants back to Turkey.
In return for the migrant deal, the EU made several commitments to Turkey:
The June deadline for visa-free travel is quickly approaching. On Monday, Turkey's prime minister Ahmed Davutoglu bluntly warned that the migrant deal will be off if visa liberalization is not implemented:
"This is a mutual commitment.If the EU cannot take the necessary steps required of it then of course it cannot be expected of Turkey to take these steps.
I maintain my belief that, God willing, we will have the visa exemption in June. In the absence of that, then of course no one can expect Turkey to adhere to its commitments."
Turkey must meet 72 criteria by May for the visa liberalization to be granted. Davutoglu says that 44 of the criteria have already been met, and the rest will be met by May.
However, a new report by the European Parliament appears to contradict Davutoglu's claim. The report is extremely critical of the situation of basic rights and freedoms in Turkey. It is also heavily critical regarding a number of other significant issues, including the situation in Syria, rule of law, the situation with the armed Kurdish opposition, the negotiations on Cyprus, independence of the judiciary, freedom of assembly, freedom of expression and the normalization of relations with Armenia.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed out at the report:
"The European Union needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the European Union.Three million people have been looked after in this country so they don't disturb the Europeans. Is there anything about this in the report?
At a time when our relations with the European Union are in a positive phase regarding the migrants... it is provocative to come out with a report like that."
There's a great deal of opposition in the EU to visa-free travel by Turkish citizens, so this issue is expected to become a crisis next month. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and AFP
"Moderate" rebel groups opposed to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad have once again said that they will not negotiate on a "political solution" unless al-Assad is to be removed from power. They made this official on Tuesday by pulling out of the Geneva peace talks.
There was supposed to have been a cease-fire since February 27, but firing never actually ceased, and now violence is escalating sharply in several regions, especially around Aleppo, which the Syrian army is attempting to recapture from rebels with the help of massive airstrikes.
Before the Russian military intervened last year, Syria's army was close to defeat for several reasons, but especially because of large numbers of defections and desertions. This situation has not changed, even with al-Assad's own Alawite sect. ( "4-Apr-16 World View -- Syria's Alawites threaten to abandon Bashar al-Assad")
Now that much of Russia's military has withdrawn, there are reports that al-Assad's army is again losing ground in some regions. Al-Qaeda linked militias, the Islamic Party of Turkestan and Jund al-Aqsa, on Monday captured strategic positions in Syria’s central province of Hama. Vice News and ARA News (Syria)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Apr-16 World View -- Afghan Taliban launches 'Spring Fighting Season' with massive Kabul explosion thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Apr-2016)
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Israel's Netanyahu vows revenge for terrorist bombing in Jerusalem
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The first Jerusalem terrorist bus bombing in year injured at least 21 people, two seriously, on Monday during rush hour. Police confirmed that a bomb exploded in one bus carrying passengers. It set a car and a second empty bus on fire, injuring more people.
The police did not disclose whether the explosion was caused by a suicide bomber or by a planted device. No terrorist group has claimed responsibility.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed revenge:
"We will find out who placed the bomb, we will reach those who dispatched them and we will also get to those who stand behind them, and settle the account with these terrorists,"
Attacks on Israeli buses by suicide bombers, many of them claimed by Hamas, occurred frequently during the Palestinian intifada between 2000-2005, but have been rare since. The last one was carried out in 2012 in Tel Aviv. Times of Israel and Vice News
For years, the major international news stories were about the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, whether it was a war in Gaza, endless rounds of peace talks, or new Israeli settlements in the West Bank. These stories eclipsed almost everything else.
Then the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) came on the scene, beheading people, destroying ancient art, or perpetrating terrorist acts in Europe, and since then, the Palestinian-Israeli issues have all but disappeared from the international news pages, frustrating Palestinian leaders.
In an interview conducted prior to Monday's bombing in Jerusalem, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas said that the Palestinian issue must be solved, because terrorists use the issue as a cover for their terrorist attacks in Europe and elsewhere. With regard to Palestinian attacks on Israelis, he blames them on "violence" by the Israelis:
"Of course we notice that the instability of the whole region is having an effect on interest in the Palestinian issue. But the world must not forget us. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict should be solved first. Many terrorists use the conflict as a cover. They claim that they are supporting our struggle. But this is not true. We condemn their deeds. But if we don't find a solution to the conflict soon, I fear the violence of these terrorists groups will spread and affect us in our territories and in Israel. ...This is not an intifada. We have to understand why these young people are committing such attacks. This generation experiences the violence and humiliation of the occupation on a daily basis. And they experience how more and more settlers are coming to occupy their land. If Israel stops this, no child will take a knife to attack Israelis."
It's not clear to me what the "this" is that Israel can stop, yielding the result that "no child will take a knife to attack Israelis," but that's completely untrue. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is that young Palestinians see Mahmoud Abbas and others in his generation as being full of crap, in the same way that young people in America think that everyone in my generation is full of crap. There is nothing that Israel can do to stop the knife attacks, and the only reason that they haven't yet grown into a larger conflict is that 81 year old Abbas has been able to use his influence to control the situation. Once he retires, and someone from a younger generation takes power, things should become much worse.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" that Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Der Spiegel
It's believed that up to 500 migrants died during the night early Monday morning, when their boat capsized in the middle of the Mediterranean sea. There have been various stories about how the human traffickers transferred 200 migrants from one sinking boat into another boat that already contained 350 migrants. The second boat capsized in the middle of the sea, leaving only 41 survivors. The survivors are from Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and Egypt. They were taken on a cargo ship to Greece, but according to some reports, they did not want to leave the cargo ship in Greece, because they wanted to go to Italy.
A year ago, I wrote "20-Apr-15 World View -- Europe considers military action in Libya as migrant drownings accelerate", in which I wrote:
"It seems that every three or four days there's a new catastrophe in the Mediterranean Sea, involving migrants traveling by boat from Libya to Italy. On Tuesday, 400 migrants drowned when their boat capsized. On Thursday, 41 more drowned after a shipwreck. And late on Saturday, 700 people may have drowned when a small fishing boat capsized 60 miles south of the Italian island of Lampedusa."
Those drownings were earth-shattering for European Union policy, as they prompted EU government to take action to stop the drownings, and to stop the uncontrolled flows of refugees across the Mediterranean.
Now that a year has passed, and the problem has not been solved, and has gotten worse. In March 2015, 2,283 migrants made the sea crossing from Libya to Italy. In March 2016, the number of 9,600, more than four times as many.
A year ago, there was talk of EU military action in Libya. Such military action didn't take place because it would have required either a Security Council resolution or an invitation from Libya's non-existent government, neither of which was available.
The rise of ISIS in Libya has made EU military action more urgent. David Cameron's government in Britain has announced that it will send 1,000 troops to Libya as part of an EU force, even if it's opposed by Parliament. Italy, Libya's former colonial power, has said publicly it is willing to send some 5,000 personnel to Libya. Any EU military action would require US intelligence and logistics. BBC and Reuters and Telegraph (London)
I've always liked to point out that as bad as America's economy is, China's is far worse, thanks to huge debt-funded bubbles that could implode at any time, creating a chain reaction of bankruptcies.
During the past ten days, there's been a massive selloff in China of corporate bonds denoted in China's yuan currency. Local issuers have canceled 60.6 billion yuan ($9.4 billion) of bond sales in April alone, while Standard & Poor’s is cutting its assessment of Chinese firms at a pace unseen since 2003.
China's government always responds to every financial problem in the same way: "Print" massive amounts of new money by purchasing debt from companies. But that solution is running out, as seven Chinese companies reneged on bond obligations this year. Three of those were part-owned by China’s government, seen not long ago as a provider of implicit guarantees for bondholders.
Bond yields (interest rates) have been increasing rapidly in the last few days, though still below historical levels. However, increased bond yields mean that new debt is more expensive, making it harder and harder for a Chinese CEO to use his MasterCard to pay his Visa bill. Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Apr-16 World View -- In a new catastrophe, hundreds of migrants drown in the Mediterranean Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Apr-2016)
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Saudi Arabia ends oil summit negotiations as Iran fails to show up
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Japan and Ecuador are oceans apart -- in fact they're separated by the entire Pacific Ocean. But in the last week, they have something in common: massive earthquakes.
On Saturday, a magnitude-7.3 earthquake struck southern Japan, after another earthquake struck the same region on Thursday night. Three people were killed and hundreds were injured.
A 7.8 magnitude earthquake, six times as powerful as the Japan earthquake, struck Ecuador on Saturday, killing hundreds of people and injuring thousands.
What these earthquakes have in common is that they're all on the "Ring of Fire," a long chain of volcanoes and other tectonically active structures that surround the Pacific Ocean. The chain runs up along the western coast of South and North America, crosses over the Aleutian Islands in Alaska, runs down the eastern coast of Asia past New Zealand and into the northern coast of Antarctica.
There are more than 450 active and dormant volcanoes located within the Ring of Fire. Approximately 90% of the most powerful volcanic eruptions and about 81% of the world’s largest earthquakes have occurred along the Ring of Fire. Earthsky Communications and BBC and Reuters and Earthsky Communications
According to a diplomatic source quoted in Kuwaiti media, dozens of fighters in Hezbollah militias were killed last week when the Syrian air force warplanes, under the command of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, bombed the Hezbollah fighters with chemical weapons. According to the report, those Hezbollah fighters who survived had chemical burn marks on their bodies. The report does not specify what chemical weapons were used. The regime war planes undoubted had intended to target women and children in Sunni neighborhoods, but accidentally targeted the Hezbollah militias.
According to the diplomatic source:
"It is not the first time that coordination problems have arisen between the military police and the Russian military, Hezbollah and Iran. Incidents like this have happened repeatedly since the Russian forces entered into the conflict.What happened in Aleppo demonstrates an impending problem in regards to cooperation on the ground and the incident again brings up the issue of attacks on innocent people with unconventional weapons.
The lack of coordination between the supporting forces and Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces is troubling to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was not updated about the incident."
President Obama had once said that a "red line" would be Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons. After al-Assad used Sarin gas and Obama flip-flopped, there was a face-saving measure to get an agreement to remove all of al-Assad's chemical weapons from Syria. Nobody seriously believed that al-Assad wouldn't find a way to retain a secret stockpile of chemical weapons, and that clearly happened. Al-Assad's air force has regularly used barrel bombs indiscriminately dropped on Sunni neighborhoods. The barrel bombs contain explosives, metals and chemical weapons, and are designed to inflict as much pain on civilian neighborhoods as possible. This new report confirms that al-Assad is using chemical weapons freely, every day, and with compute impunity, fully supported by Russia and Iran.
Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly humiliated and made a fool of President Obama, but I suppose that one could enjoy a little Schadenfreude now that al-Assad's chemical weapons have now been used on his own allies. Jerusalem Post and Jewish Press
Members of the "moderate" Syrian opposition to the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad said on Sunday that since the Syrian army was not honoring what is supposed to be a cease-fire, then rebel groups should not do so either, and they urged rebels to strike back against the Syrian army. The so-called "cease-fire" was never more than a ruse by the regime and the Russians as a cover to continue fighting and gaining ground, and now even the pretense of a cease-fire is apparently at an end.
I've been writing about various peace plans and peace talks ever since the conflict began in 2011. The following is what I wrote on March 12, 2012:
"It's becoming increasingly apparent to everybody that Bashar al-Assad has made fools of the Arab League, the U.N. and the west in general, by succeeding in killing, mutilating and exterminating thousands of his own innocent Arab civilians under the everybody's noses, and they couldn't do a damn thing about it. Ban Ki-moon, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, runs around like a chicken with his head cut off, saying, "This has got to stop! This has got to stop." He's been parroting those words for a year. And Kofi Annan, the virulently anti-American former Secretary-General of the United Nations from Ghana, sounds like an idiot when he travels to Damascus and tells everyone in the West to leave poor Bashar alone, or he'll make things worse for everyone. The U.N. sent their emergency aid chief, Valerie Amos, to Syria to check out Homs, which has been the subject of a full scale army attack on residential neighborhoods for the last few weeks. Al-Assad's troops cleaned up the dead bodies and debris from the portion of Homs that they wanted her to see, and she said how "concerned" she is about what happened to the people. Activists ridiculed her visit and one said, "To tell the truth, we know that Valerie Amos is useless. We have had one year of killing, shooting and bombing and nobody has moved a finger.""
Annan formulated a farcical six-point 'peace plan' which said absolutely nothing, but which al-Assad used as a cover to continue exterminating innocent Sunni women and children with impunity. After Kofi Annan was repeatedly humiliated by Bashar al-Assad, the UN appointed a new Syria peace envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, to replace Kofi Annan. Brahimi wasn't as much of an idiot as Annan was, but he still resigned in disgust in May 2014, after it became clear that al-Assad really had no desire to do anything but exterminate Sunni civilians. After that, Secretary of State John Kerry stumbled around the Mideast, making one idiotic SNL-worthy speech after another.
This year, after the Russians intervened militarily, there have been several new attempts at peace plans. But as I've written several times, these peace plan made absolutely no sense whatsoever for obvious reasons -- Russia and Syria will continue bombing what they claim are terrorist groups, which are pretty much all Sunnis in Syria, and the plan would not apply to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front). In fact, the peace plans have actually worsened the hostilities, since they provided cover for substantially increased bombing and fighting from all groups.
There's a very good reason why one peace plan after another fails. And that's because Bashar al-Assad is a psychopathic genocidal monster whose objective is to exterminate all Sunni Muslims as if they were cockroaches. These are almost his own words. He's repeatedly said he will never step down, and that he will continue to exterminate all "terrorists" -- by which he means all Sunnis. ( "12-Feb-16 World View -- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria")
The conflict in Syria is one of the greatest humanitarian disasters of recent times. According to a recent report by the Syrian Center for Policy Research, an independent think tank, about 470,000 Syrians have lost their lives due to the war, directly and indirectly, so far. Around 45 per cent of the country’s population of 23 million have been displaced, 6.4 million internally and more than 5 million abroad. In all, 11.5 per cent of Syria’s population has been killed or injured since the crisis erupted in March 2011. (Paragraph corrected. 19-Apr)
None of this really mattered to the West, as long as the refugees were pouring into neighboring states -- Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey. But now there's a lot of desperation in Europe because of the Syria war, mainly because over a million of those refugees have flooded into Europe. That's why Western government was grasp at almost any hope, no matter how tenuous, that the Syrian war can be resolved with "peace talks" in Geneva. But as long as Bashar al-Assad is in power and able to exterminate Sunni civilians with impunity, then there will never be a solution. Reuters and Indian Express and Huffington Post
An oil summit in Doha by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was supposed to come to an agreement to limit production of oil, in order to force oil prices to increase. Iran has repeatedly said that it would not limit its own production, as it's only recently had sanctions lifted. The sanctions restricted Iran's oil production.
Oil prices (futures) plunged 5-6% immediately on early trading in Asia on Monday morning, news, from around $40 per barrel to around $38 a barrel.
Oil prices last year fell below $30 per barrel, for two main reasons: reduction in demand from China, and the shale oil production boom in the United States. The fall in prices has caused many shale oil rigs to shut down, and oil prices have been rising for the last nine months. Even so, the world is still producing about 1.25 million barrels of oil per day more than required, and so oil prices may fall sharply again in the next few weeks. Market Watch and Reuters and Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Apr-16 World View -- Latest Syria 'peace process' collapses, as chemical weapons kill Hezbollah militias thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Apr-2016)
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Cuba's reactionary Raúl Castro tries to hold back the 'restoration of capitalism'
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Cuba's president Raúl Castro admitted Saturday that micro, small and medium-sized private companies have proliferated since Cuba's 2010 economic reforms, but warned that this does not in any way imply the "restoration of capitalism." In making this announcement, Castro is trying desperately to hold back the tides of history, an attempt that will surely fail.
In 2010, Cuba's president Fidel Castro announced that Cuba's bureaucracy had become so bloated that the government would lay off 500,000 workers in the public sector. According to the announcement:
"Our state neither can nor should continue to burden companies and productive organizations with services and inflated budgets that weigh down the economy, are counterproductive, create bad habits and distort the behavior of workers."
Those workers would have to form private businesses or work for other people's private businesses. The announcement was effectively the end of socialism for Cuba. (See "16-Sep-10 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications")
Now, over five years later, those 500,000 laid off workers did create numerous private businesses, many of which are succeeding. So Castro's announcement on Saturday is not only anti-historical, but silly.
Karl Marx's theories said that capitalism had built within it the seeds of its own destruction, and that it would also be replaced by the dictatorship of the proletariat, and then by socialism. Not only has that never happened, but the opposite has happened. Whether in East Germany, Russia, China, North Korea or Cuba, socialism has always been imposed over a river of blood and tens of millions of dead bodies of people who had to be killed to create the socialist paradise. As the communists like to say, you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet.
In fact, it's socialism that contains the seeds to its own destruction. In recent times, we've seen a total collapse of socialism in East Germany and Russia, and in China a collapse into "capitalistic socialism," which is actually Fascism.
As I wrote in my 2010 article, one can prove mathematically that socialism must always fail as population grows. If you're a serf lord or a war lord and you control a couple of hundred people, then socialism is easy. You just appoint your son to be chief bureaucrat, and have him monitor all commercial transactions. But as population grows exponentially, the number of transactions that have to be monitored grows exponentially even faster, and so the number of bureaucrats required to enforce socialism grows faster than the population. That's why all the socialist countries in the last century got stuck in the 1950s, and why North Korea today is still stuck in the 1950s.
Cuba was stuck in the 1950s, as was apparent from the fact that all the cars in Cuba were 1950s cars from America. The number of bureaucrats necessary to enforce socialism had grown so large that it was getting out of control. That's why the 2010 announcement was that 500,000 people would be laid off and allowed to create their own private businesses.
In country after country where socialism has been tried, it's been accomplished by means of huge bloody massacres in generational Crisis eras, and in the countries we've mentioned it's collapsed bloodlessly during generational Unraveling eras. Cuba is in a generational Unraveling era today. The only thing holding socialism together today is that Fidel and Raúl Castro are still alive and still running things. But Raúl Castro is 84 years old, and he's promised to retire soon, so socialism will not last much longer in Cuba. Agencia EFE (Madrid) and Cuban News Agency (ACN)
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Saudi Arabia is threatening to sell of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of American assets if a bill becomes law that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible in U.S. courts for any role in the September 11, 2001, attacks.
The 9/11 Commission Report, published during the Bush administration, found "no evidence that the Saudi government as an institution or senior Saudi officials individually funded the organization." That very careful wording leaves open the possibility that some less-than-senior Saudi politicians supported or funded the 9/11 attacks.
However, the final chapter of the report, now known as the mysterious "28 pages," was left out of the public version of the report, for reasons of "national security" that both the Bush and Obama administrations have supported. Activists are claiming that the "28 pages" contain evidence of the guilt of the Saudi government, and they're demanding that they be declassified.
Families of the victims are going further and demanding that Congress pass a bill that would permit them to sue the Saudi government and recover damages for the 9/11 attacks. Congress is now debating such a bill, though it's opposed by the Obama administration.
The Saudis are threatening revenge, saying that if that bill becomes law, then they'll sell of $750 billion in American treasury securities and other US assets. They have threatened to do this quickly, before the US courts could freeze these assets. Selling the assets would, in effect, immunize the Saudis from the lawsuits, or at least from having to pay damages if they lose the lawsuits.
This is just one more thing that's worsening relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States. Relations have been worsening ever since President Obama took office, especially when Obama appeared to throw Hosni Mubarak under the bus during the 2011 Arab Awakening. (See "21-May-11 News -- Saudi Arabia advances Gulf Cooperation Council, further cuts U.S. ties.")
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, the US, India, Russia and Iran would be allies opposing China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the Sunni Muslim countries. CNN and The Sun (London) and The 9/11 Commission Report (PDF)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Apr-16 World View -- Saudi Arabia threatens economic retaliation if blamed for 9/11 attacks thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Apr-2016)
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Czech Republic debates adopting the short name 'Czechia'
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Thousands of Egyptians demonstrated in central Cairo on Friday against president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi in the biggest anti-government protests since al-Sisi's coup that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi.
The trigger for the riots was the joint plan by Egypt and Saudi Arabia to build a bridge across the Red Sea, but the riots were not triggered by the bridge plan itself, but by other terms of the same deal that we described in "10-Apr-16 World View -- Egypt, Saudi Arabia to build a huge bridge where Moses parted the Red Sea"
The part of the deal that's triggering the demonstrations was that a long-standing dispute over two islands in the Strait of Tiran, the Sanafir and Tiran islands, was resolved by Egypt giving up sovereignty and turning the islands over the Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia agreed to invest $22 billion in development projects in Egypt to help its ailing economy, though Saudi Arabia is not offering "free money" this time because Saudi Arabia's economy is also ailing because of collapsing oil prices.
Protesters on Friday chanted, "Awad sold his land!", an allusion to the villagers' taunts in a popular 1960s radio play of a man who sold his plot of farmland — an act that in the past was equated with dishonor in rural Egypt.
Egypt's best known political satirist, self-exiled Bassem Youssef, mimicked the shouts of Egyptian street hawkers selling souvenirs to foreign tourists by tweeting, "Here, here, Pasha, one island for a billion, a pyramid for two and I will throw two statues on top,"
However, the chants by the protesters went beyond the island issue to calling for the downfall of the government. Egyptians had hoped that al-Sisi's presidency would bring an economic upturn, but the economy has continued to worsen. The protests weren't as big as the 2011 protests that brought down Mubarak, but they're similar, and new protests are planned for April 25. The crowds dispersed later in the day, although Egyptian security forces detained about 50 protesters. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and AP and AFP
Only a few hundred migrants entered Europe via Greece this week, but almost 6,000 migrants and refugees have sailed from Libya towards Italy in the past three days in what appears the start of a wave of at least 100,000 and "possibly many, many more" this year, the International Organization for Migration said on Friday.
The Italian Coast Guard has become extremely efficient at saving migrants from drowning, and some people are complaining that it's become so efficient that many more migrants are encouraged to make the trip, thus making Europe's migrant crisis even worse. Reuters
After years of debate, leaders of the Czech Republic are supporting "Czechia" as the shortened name for the counted. According to President Milos Zeman in 2013, "I use the term Czechia because it’s shorter and not so cold like the term Czech Republic."
Other politicians object to the name for several reasons, including the fact that the new name will be confused with the name "Chechnya," one of Russia's provinces in the Northern Caucasus.
In fact, even without the new name, that's exactly what did happen in 2013 after the Boston Marathon bombing. The two Boston Marathon bombers had origins in Chechnya, but many bloggers got confused, as I reported in "21-Apr-13 World View -- American bloggers confuse 'Chechnya' with 'Czech Republic'".
In order to allay the confusion at the time, Czech Ambassador Petr Gandalovic posted the following message on the web site for the Czech embassy in Washington:
"As many I was deeply shocked by the tragedy that occurred in Boston earlier this month. It was a stark reminder of the fact that any of us could be a victim of senseless violence anywhere at any moment.As more information on the origin of the alleged perpetrators is coming to light, I am concerned to note in the social media a most unfortunate misunderstanding in this respect. The Czech Republic and Chechnya are two very different entities - the Czech Republic is a Central European country; Chechnya is a part of the Russian Federation.
As the President of the Czech Republic Milos Zeman noted in his message to President Obama, the Czech Republic is an active and reliable partner of the United States in the fight against terrorism. We are determined to stand side by side with our allies in this respect, there is no doubt about that."
Now, with regard to adopting the short name Czechia, one opposition MP said: "It is certainly not a good idea. I think that we are known as the Czech Republic, though for some further away its still rather often Czechoslovakia in spite of the fact we are now the Czech Republic." Radio Prague and Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Apr-16 World View -- Egypt-Saudi deal for Red Sea bridge triggers massive protests in Cairo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Apr-2016)
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US Navy conducting joint patrols with Philippines in South China Sea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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This is two-year anniversary of the abduction by Boko Haram of 276 girls from their college dormitory in the village of Chibok in Nigeria. Boko Haram has now released a video of 15 of the girls, shot on Christmas day 2015. The video provides "proof of life" in order for Boko Haram to gain negotiating leverage in its extortion negotiations with the government,
Parents who viewed the video confirmed that they were the Chibok girls. Those who saw their own daughters were relieved that their daughters were alive, but distressed at the circumstances.
It's unlikely that all 276 girls could ever be returned, as it's thought that some have been sold as slaves and others have been used as suicide bombers.
But most of all, the video has caused renewed outrage in Nigeria at the way the government responded to the abduction. For a couple of weeks after the abduction occurred, it seemed that nobody particularly cared, not the government of Nigeria, and not the international community. (See "2-May-14 World View -- New car bombing in Nigeria, while 200 kidnapped girls are still missing") Then an international campaign began, with Michele Obama's participation. But now, two years later, no girls have been recovered, and some people in Nigeria have stated in the past that Nigeria's government was so incompetent at dealing with Boko Haram that it's possible that some government officials are Boko Haram supporters. Other analysts claim that any attempt to rescue the girls could have gotten many of them killed. CNN and AFP
As we reported yesterday, Russian jet fighters pretended to be attacking the USS Donald Cook in the Baltic Sea, buzzing the USS Cook 11 times, at one point within 30 feet of the ship.
According to Secretary of State John Kerry, the US might have shot the Russian jets down:
"We condemn this kind of behavior. It is reckless. It is provocative. It is dangerous. And under the rules of engagement that could have been a shoot-down.People need to understand that this is serious business and the United States is not going to be intimidated on the high seas ... We are communicating to the Russians how dangerous this is and our hope is that this will never be repeated."
Everyone remembers that Turkey last year shot down a Russian jet under almost similar circumstances, and since then Russian jets no longer violate Turkey's airspace.
In this case, however, Russia's state media bragged about the incident:
"The aerobatics skills of Russian pilots over the US destroyer Donald Cook in the Baltic Sea left the Pentagon and other US official running for cover in Washington over “aggressive close interactions” with Russian fighter jets. ...Judging by the videos released by the US Navy, the sailors were nonplussed by the Russian aerobatic skills. They gathered on the top deck of the destroyer to watch the Russian pilots. ...
At least on the video no one can be seen running for cover."
The Russians should remember a previous incident: an April 2001 encounter, when the pilots of a Chinese F-8 interceptor were playing games and exhibiting similar "aerobatics skills" to harass a U.S. surveillance aircraft in international waters in the South China Sea. The Chinese were internationally humiliated as total idiots when the Chinese aircraft smashed into the US aircraft. The Chinese aircraft crashed into the sea, and its crew were killed. The U.S. plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island, and the idiot Chinese got even by imprisoning the 24 crew members for 10 days. Guardian (London) and Russia Today
The United States on Thursday revealed for the first time that American ships have started conducting joint patrols with the Philippines in the South China Sea. At the same time, Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced that the US will be keeping nearly 300 troops, including Air Force commandos armed with combat aircraft and helicopters, in the Philippines through the end of the month. Philippines Defense Minister Voltaire T. Gazmin said wishfully that the U.S. presence "will deter uncalled-for actions by the Chinese."
This is part of the continuing military buildup in the South China Sea, triggered by China's use of its massive military force to confiscate regions that have historically belonged to other nations, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. As we reported yesterday, Japanese warships are visiting ports in Vietnam, while China is deploying warplanes onto Woody Island in the South China Sea. NBC News and CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Apr-16 World View -- Russians brag about 'aerobatic skills' of Russian pilots buzzing US ship thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Apr-2016)
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Russian fighter 'strafing runs' at US ship in Baltic Sea called 'showboating'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Japan on Tuesday sailed two warships, the guided-missile destroyers JS Ariake and JS Setogiri, carrying 500 crew members, into Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay seaport. The visit is considered historic, since it's the first such visit since Japanese occupation of Vietnam ended at the end of World War II.
Cam Ranh Bay opens out into the South China Sea, and the visit by Japanese warships to Vietnam is clearly directed at China, and is an attempt to react to China's belligerence. Japan's constitution permits the military to be used only for self-defense, and these ships are part of the "Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force" (MSDF). But the concept of "self-defense" has recently been reinterpreted by Japan's government to permit "collective self-defense," which would allow the Japanese military to fight in a foreign war in defense of an ally whose defeat could threaten Japan.
A statement by Japan's Minister of Defense Gen Nakatani said that he expected defense collaboration with Vietnam to grow and that Japan would work with other major powers such as the United States to ensure peace and stability in the South China Sea. Japan Times and Vietnam Net and The Diplomat
China plans for military control of the South China Sea has taken a big step forward, according to satellite imagery from April 7. Two Chinese Shenyang J-11 fighter jets have been deployed to Woody Island.
China is claiming the entire South China Sea, and is using its massive military force to confiscate regions that have historically belonged to other nations, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. China is building artificial islands and converting them to military bases with advanced missile and radar systems. ( "23-Feb-16 World View -- China's military buildup neutralizes America's aircraft carriers")
It's possible that the new deployment of jets was purposely timed to coincide with the port call of the two Japanese warships to Vietnam. Fox News and Sydney Morning Herald
Russian jets appeared to be attacking the USS Donald Cook, sailing in the Baltic Sea. A U.S. official described the Russian maneuver as "strafing runs" without firing any weapons. The Russian aircraft were unarmed, but swooped in over the deck in the same flight profile that would have been used if an attack was underway. They buzzed the USS Cook 11 times, at one point within 30 feet of the ship.
This appears to be one of the political relations games that Russia's president Vladimir Putin is playing to show how tough he is. The Navy didn't shoot down the Russian planes because they weren't a credible threat according to Capt. Rick Hoffman, and they were visibly unarmed.
According to Hoffman, the Russian "simulated attack" was nothing but showboating:
"Well, we’re not at war with Russia. It would be one thing to be operating and have a threatening attack profile from someone who might not recognize me — that’s not the case here."You don’t get to kill people just because they’re being annoying. ...
It would be real interesting to see what shows up in the Russian papers in the morning, how they play it. It's not that different from North Korea. He does something and then he plays it domestically however he needs to play it for the purposes of getting his people energized."
When Russian warplanes in Syria repeatedly violated Turkey's airspace last year, the Turks finally shot one down, creating an international incident. However, it's believed that Russian warplanes no longer violate Turkey's airspace. CNN and Navy Times and YouTube
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Apr-16 World View -- Japanese warships visit Vietnam, as China moves warplanes into South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Apr-2016)
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EU threatens to impose travel restrictions on US/Canada visitors
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The European Commission (EC) on Tuesday asked the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament to consider imposing travel restrictions on visitors from the United States and Canada. The EC had to make the request, because it was required to do so under European Union regulations.
Most EU citizens can visit the United States with no visa requirements. And US citizens can visit most of Europe with no visa requirements. But the United States requires visas from citizens of Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Poland and Romania. Because of this requirement, the EC is required under its own regulations to pursue a reciprocal regime.
Under those regulations, the EC 24 months ago issued a formal notice to the US State Dept. asking that the visa requirements be lifted for those five member states. That notice has now expired, so the EC, under its own regulations, was forced to take the next step on April 12. A similar situation applies to Canada and Brunei.
This issue is caught up in Europe's security problems. The State Dept. isn't likely to agree to reduce any visitor restrictions after the terror attacks on Paris and Brussels. In fact, the US tightened restrictions on all EU countries last year by requiring visas for all all dual EU-Syrian nationals or all EU nationals who recently visited Libya.
If the EU goes ahead with its via restrictions, then starting in October, US citizens would have to obtain visas before traveling to Europe. Many European officials are stridently opposed to imposing the visa requirements, because it would be devastating to Europe's economy, especially after the US retaliated by imposing its own visa restrictions on Europe. eTurbo Travel News and EU Observer and Canadian Broadcasting
Italy's Coast Guard, supported by ships from EU's Frontex organization, rescued 2,154 migrants traveling from Libya on a single day, Tuesday. The were found on 16 rubber dinghies and one boat.
In a typical situation, a dinghy is crammed with 100-200 people in Libya and pushed out into the Mediterranean Sea. The migrants are instructed to watch for an Italian coast guard ship and ask for help. In some cases, the migrants purposely sink the dinghy so that the coast guard ship will be forced to take them aboard.
As expected, the warmer weather is causing an increase in the number migrants who pay human traffickers to cross the Mediterranean to Europe from Libya. Now that the "Balkan Route" from Greece through the Balkans to Germany has been closed, migrants are paying human traffickers to transport them via other routes. Many people think that the hundreds of thousands that have been prevented from taking the Balkan Route will now travel via Libya to Italy.
Meanwhile, there are more than 53,000 migrants are trapped in Greece, many in filthy refugee camps, and the process of returning them to Turkey is floundering. ( "9-Apr-16 World View -- Legal problems and Erdogan's threats may collapse EU-Turkey migrant deal")
Things have been going so slowly in Greece that the European Commission is issuing a threat to Greece to report how it plans to tightenc control of its border, or be shut out of the visa-free Schengen Zone. AP and Kathimerini
Fearing a massive influx of migrants from Italy, Austria has begun construction work at the Brenner Pass Alpine crossing, the main highway that connects Italy and Austria. Austria will introduce tougher border controls starting on June 1 at the latest. There are no plans right now to build a border fence, but that could change if the stream of migrants becomes large enough.
The Austrian plans are raising objections among EU leaders.
Natasha Bertaud, a spokesman for the European Commission said: "The Commission is very concerned. If these plans were to materialize then we would have to look at them very seriously. The Brenner Pass is essential for the freedom of movement within the European Union."
Alev Korun, member of the Austrian Parliament and spokesman for the Green Alternative party, said: "We are against the militarization of borders and the building of fences on the borders. Nationalistic measures like these only speed up de-solidarization within the EU." Euro News and Independent (London) and Sputnik News (Moscow)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Apr-16 World View -- EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Apr-2016)
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John Kerry instructs Afghanistan officials how to run their government
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This is another one of those stories where all I can do is shake my head because after seven years of being in office, President Obama still thinks he's the smartest person in the room -- any room -- or the world, but still has absolutely no clue what's going on in the world. His Secretary of State John Kerry believes that US armed forces are worse than Nazis.
So now John Kerry, who has stumbled from one foreign policy disaster to another, paid a surprise visit to Afghanistan on Saturday. The nominal purpose of the visit was to head off a political crisis that could damage US withdrawal plans, so he demanded that the government renege on a 2014 agreement to replace the current government in September.
Afghanistan's presidential elections in 2014 resulted in bitter disputes between the two leading candidates, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, including accusations of massive voter fraud on both sides. The US brokered an agreement for a "unity government" of the two candidates, with Ghani becoming president and Abdullah in the newly created post of chief executive.
The text of the agreement called for a "loya jirga" (grand assembly) to be called in September 2016, at the end of two years. The loya jirga would decide the future of the government and amend the constitution -- as such assemblies have done at key points in Afghanistan’s recent history.
So the purpose of Kerry's visit to Afghanistan on Saturday was to tell the Afghan politicians and the Afghan people that they should not hold a loya jirga. He said that, despite the agreement calling for it, the loya jirga was "a goal," not a requirement:
"Let me make this very, very clear, because I brokered the agreement, President Ghani signed it and Chief Executive Abdullah signed it, and I was there to witness the signing, and I had the privilege of joining them in announcing it. There is no end to this agreement at the end of two years or in six months from now. This agreement ends – this is an agreement for a unity government, the duration of which is five years. ...But we are – in no way does the agreement itself have some particular termination. The constitution has elected a president. The president has agreed to a unity government, and a political agreement was made between Dr. Abdullah and President Ghani for how they would go forward in a unity government. But it is our understanding that that is a mandate for five years and there’s no termination whatsoever in six months."
So there you have it. John Kerry brokered the deal, so he knows what it means better than the Afghan politicians do, since they merely signed it. We'll have to see whether Kerry's visit did the job, or whether it infuriated the opposition so much that it made a loya jirga even more likely.
Kerry also repeated an offer to the Taliban for peace talks, which is laughable. LA Times and Washington Post (29-Mar) and BBC and Dept. of State
The fact that Afghanistan has had no government since 2014 is just one of the country's problems. The economy has been sinking and, perhaps worst of all, the resurgent Taliban are stronger than at any time since they were toppled from power in late 2001.
In October of last year, President Obama reversed himself on the Afghanistan troop withdrawal. Instead of a total withdrawal, he announced that a residual force of 5,500 troops would be left on a continuing basis. This was only the latest of several similar reversals. He was forced into this because many people believe that the Obama's total withdrawal from Iraq squandered the victory won by President Bush via the 2007 "surge," and because Obama's own "surge" strategy in Afghanistan has been a failure, as I predicted in 2009 that it would be, based on a Generational Dynamics comparison of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Analysts give three reasons for the resurgence of the Taliban in 2015:
The viability of Afghan's military is further in doubt as a new report by CNN that desertion is rife, as Afghan soldiers defect to the Taliban. According to one deserter: "I decided to leave the army when my dead and injured comrades lay in our base, and nobody took them to hospital. My army training is very useful now, as I am training Taliban fighters with the same knowledge."
Government troops suffered huge losses in 2015. U.S. officials estimate that 5,500 Afghan security force members died that year alone, far more than the 3,500 Nato lost in its entire decade-long campaign. As the "fighting season" approaches in the summer, the fear is that losses in 2016 will be even greater.
The remaining Nato forces are increasingly being deployed in battle zones to support Afghan forces fighting the Taliban. Afghanistan's government is requesting (perhaps begging) that the US cancel its withdrawal plans, or even to bring in new troops. With President Obama concerned with little else beyond his legacy, this is something that he is unlikely to approve, unless the situation in Afghanistan gets so bad over the summer that he has no choice. That may in fact happen. Reuters and CNN and BBC (5-Jan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Apr-16 World View -- Troubles mount for Afghanistan government as US withdrawal looms thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Apr-2016)
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'Horrific' scenes as Macedonian police lob teargas into Idomeni refugee camp
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A scene described as "horrific" unfolded on Sunday in Greece along the border with Macedonia. According to reports, five refugees from the Idomeni refugee camp went to the border to negotiate with Macedonian authorities. Thousands of people had come to the Macedonian border because of rumors that the borders were going to be opened.
The Macedonians said that they were following European policy, and asked the refugees to remain peaceful. One of the refugees is quoted as saying:
"We understand, and we want to be peaceful. But behind me there are 10,000 people - refugees who are fleeing war - and they have been here for months now. We want a solution."
Ten minutes later, hundreds of refugees tried to cut the barbed wire and break through the fence. The police responded by firing teargas canisters, stun grenades, and rubber bullets at hundreds of refugees, and kept firing for two hours. The teargas canisters went deep into the Idomeni camp and reached women and children who were not taking part in any protests. The refugees hurled stones at the Macedonian police in retaliation.
There were hundreds of injuries, according to Doctors without Borders, including two hundred with breathing problems, and 30 for wounds caused by plastic bullets.
Problems are mounting for the EU-Turkey migrant deal, including the following:
Deutsche Welle and AFP and Greek Reporter (7-Apr) and Deutsche Welle
Azerbaijan media reports that the Armenians broke the ceasefire 125 throughout the day on Saturday, at various location in Nagorno-Karabakh (NKB). It also reports that "Azerbaijani armed forces carried out 125 strikes on enemy positions," although those strikes are not characterized as "breaches."
Armenian media said that the cease-fire was "mainly observed," but complained that Azerbaijani forces used "an 82-mm mortar and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer" in norther NKB.
This is the way that the NKB conflict has been going for years, with low-level violence characterized by sporadic mortars and gunfire on both sides, and with both sides reporting breaches, often hundreds per day.
This all changed on April 1, when suddenly the low-level violence escalated into what appeared to be a major war. ( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region") A Russian-mediated cease-fire came into effect last week on April 4, and it's most held since then.
Few analysts doubt that Orthodox Christian Russia is on the side of Orthodox Christian Armenia, and not on the side of Azerbaijan, whose Turkic ethnicity matches Russia's enemy Turkey. And there are reports that many Armenians are bewildered why Russia hasn't been supporting them in the war against Azerbaijan, instead of staying neutral.
Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev has been openly critical of the "Turkish factor" in the NKB conflict:
"There is a host of forces that are closely looking into the consequences of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for the situation in the Middle East and on Russia. ... All conflicts at a given time may in one way or another be a factor in political decisions. So I do not rule out that there are factors that are influencing the conflict from abroad. You mentioned the Turkish factor. The Turkish factor probably exists, at least because Turkey has expressed its position."
In fact, Russia has been criticized internationally for selling weapons to both sides in the conflict, something that Medvedev defends: "If we imagine for a minute that Russian Federation gives up this role, we perfectly understand that this place won’t remain empty. They will buy weapons in other countries, and the degree of their deadliness won’t change in any way."
My own view of Russia's motivations is that Russia's president Vladimir Putin fears blowback from a major Armenia-Azerbaijan war. The South Caucasus region is the site of centuries of some of the bloodiest religious wars in history between the Orthodox Christian civilization and the Sunni Muslim civilization, and Generational Dynamics predicts that the region is headed for another such war with absolute certainty. I doubt that Putin has ever heard of Generational Dynamics, but he knows the region's history and he knows intuitively that that any South Caucasus war could spiral throughout the Middle East or Russia, as suggested by Medvedev's statement quoted above. For that reason, Russia is attempting to remain neutral for the time being, rather than risk another extremely bloody war throughout the region, a war that would lead to a world war. However, there are massive generational and historical forces at work here, and no polician either cause or prevent the war that's coming. AzerTag (Azerbaijan) and Pan Armenian and Sputnik News (Moscow)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire holds, despite hundreds of 'breaches' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Apr-2016)
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Saudi Arabia will no longer provide 'free money' to Egypt
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Saudi Arabia and Egypt have announced plans to build the King Salman Bridge, named after the current leader of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud.
The bridge will be an enormous project, 10-20 miles (16-32 km) long, depending on its position, providing a land connection between Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
The bridge is planned to cross the Strait of Tiran, at the same place where the prophet Moses is said to have parted the Red Sea, in order to bring his people out of slavery into the Promised Land.
Whether the bridge will actually ever be built remains to be seen. The construction project could badly affect tourism at the Sharm el-Sheikh resort on the Red Sea near the Strait of Tiran. Furthermore, environmentalists are complaining that the construction project would damage fragile sea life.
The Strait of Tiran has a more modern significance as well. For many years after Israel's founding, the Suez Canal was closed to Israeli shipping, so ships carrying goods to Israel had to pass through the Strait of Tiran and travel up the Gulf of Aqaba to reach Egypt.
On May 23, 1967, Egypt's President Gamal Abdel Nasser announced that the United Arab Republic would close the Strait of Tiran and Gulf of Aqaba to all ships flying Israel flags or carrying strategic materials. Israel had already warned that any such move would be considered an act of war, and the announcement did launch the 1967 Six-Day War between Egypt and Israel.
As part of the same announcement on Saturday, the countries agreed to settle a long-standing dispute over the sovereignty of the Sanafir and Tiran islands in the Strait of Tiran. Until now, they had been Egypt's sovereign territory. After the Six-Day War, Israel occupied the two islands from 1967 until the full implementation of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty in 1982. Since then, and continuing to today, there is a US-led "Multinational Force Observers" (MFO). Now that control of the islands is being transferred from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, it remains to be seen whether there will be any effect on the MFO or on Israeli shipping. Egyptian Streets and Arab News and Ynet
With the Arab world in continuing turmoil since the "Arab Awakening" in 2011, the lengthy visit by Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud to Cairo and Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is being described as historic. Egypt with nearly 93 million citizens is the most populous Arab country, with the largest military in the region, while Saudi Arabia is the leader of the Muslim world and has the region’s largest economy. The two leaders have sign agreements 12 development projects in the Sinai, and other projects totally $22 billion.
When Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood were the governing party of Egypt in 2013, Qatar, which joined Turkey in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, gave billions of dollars in aid to Egypt. When Morsi was deposed in an army coup led by Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi on July 3, 2013, Qatar's aid to Egypt ended. After that. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait starting giving aid to Egypt.
As part of this week's joint announcements, Saudi Arabia has said that it will no longer give "free money" to Egypt. Instead, future aid will be given in the form of investments and loans that will have to be repaid.
There are two reasons for this change. One is that with the collapse in oil prices, Saudi Arabia is not able to spend as much, and by making loans and investments, the Saudis diversify their sources of revenue.
The second is that Egypt's economy has been struggling since the ouster of long-time leader Hosni Mubarak in 2011, and the current president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has been unable to turn the economy around, or to deal effectively with the entrenched corruption. Arab News and Reuters and Arab News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Apr-16 World View -- Egypt, Saudi Arabia to build a huge bridge where Moses parted the Red Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Apr-2016)
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Turkey's Erdogan threatens to terminate the refugee deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Officials in Europe and Turkey are hailing the apparent success of the first week of the implementation of the EU-Turkey refugee deal. The number of migrants arriving in Greece from Turkey is down to hundreds per day, rather than thousands.
Also this week, two boatloads of refugees from Greece have been shipped back to Turkey -- 54 on Monday, 120 on Friday.
However, some analysts are saying that this is all symbolic, a meaningless show. The reason is technical, but dispositive. All 54 of the migrants returned to Turkey on Monday were Pakistani. Most of the migrants sent on Friday were Pakistani, and others were from Egypt, Afghanistan, and Iraq. None of these migrants had applied for asylum in Greece because their intention was to continue their journey north to Germany or Sweden, and objective that is now denied to them because the "Balkan Route" has been closed.
Now, the problem with this situation is that it was already perfectly legal for Greece to deport these 174 "illegal migrants," even without the EU-Turkey deal. Under a previous 2002 deal, Greece could have returned them to Turkey. Even without that deal, Greece could have deported them to their home countries. As things stand, Turkey will now deport the 174 to their home countries -- the countries that they'd already fled from at risk of their lives.
There are still more than 3,000 migrants on the Greek island of Lesbos. In view of recent events, almost all of these have submitted asylum applications. Once a migrant has applied for asylum, she cannot be sent back to Turkey until she has been interviewed and had an individual hearing, and then only if her asylum request has been rejected. (The use of the feminine pronouns reflects the fact that most migrants now are women and children.)
This asylum hearing process is an enormous logistical problem. It requires police, case officers, judges, and language interpreters. It can take weeks or months to reach a decision on a single asylum application. Greece itself does not have the resources to implement this process. The European Commission has promised that it would send 2,300 experts from other countries to help with the logistical challenge, but those experts are still nowhere in sight.
The problems don't stop there, and get more complicated when refugees from Syria are involved. There's a "one-for-one" provision in the EU-Turkey deal that, for each Syrian refugee that Greece returns to Turkey, Turkey will select a Syrian refugee from its refugee camps and send that refugee back to the EU. These refugees will be distributed to all 28 EU countries under a quota system. As we described a couple of days ago, it will be almost impossible to get agreement on the quotas. ( "7-Apr-16 World View -- In desperation, EU tries to overhaul its refugee asylum rules")
There may be still more problems. The 174 migrants who have already been sent back to Turkey did not put up any resistance, but with 3,000 migrants to go, that may not last. There have already been riots and confrontations between police and migrants in the Idomeni refugee camp on Greece's border with Macedonia.
To try to head off more problems, an "informative leaflet" will be distributed to refugees and migrants at Idomeni and in the Port of Piraeus, starting on Monday. The leaflet is in four languages -- Arabic, Farsi, Greek and English:
"Make sure that no violent incidents take place among you. There is nothing to be divided. You all share common problems. Hate and violence do not help in any way.Do not lose your courage, we stand by you, we love you! ...
The port of Piraeus cannot host you anymore and you have nothing to win by remaining here. Additionally, from now on the port of Piraeus will have to service significant volumes of traffic of vehicles and passengers. It is not possible for you to stay at the port of Piraeus anymore. In a few days the port of Piraeus will be emptied (evacuated)."
Whether this leaflet will soothe tempers or worsens them remains to be seen. Daily Sabah (Istanbul) and The Atlantic and Der Spiegel and Greek Reporter
There are legal challenges being raised on both sides of the EU-Turkey refugee deal.
European experts are arguing that Turkey does not meet the minimum requirements to be "Safe Country of Origin." This concept has been debated by the European Commission, but they have been unable to precisely define what it means, or to produce a list of safe countries of origin.
By agreeing to the EU-Turkey deal, the European Commission is deciding by implication that Turkey is a safe country of origin, which means that migrants can be sent back to Turkey, according to EU law. But some human rights organizations are going to challenge that decision in the European Court of Justice, based on the number of times that the European Court of Human Rights has condemned Turkey for breaches of human rights. The trial might delay further implementation of the EU-Turkey deal, and if the ECJ rules that Turkey is not a safe country of origin, then the deal may collapse completely.
On the other hand, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is warning that the EU is already in violation of its side of the agreement, and that if further steps aren't taken, then Turkey will terminate the deal.
Erdogan is referring to the following EU commitments:
In a speech on Thursday, Erdogan said:
"There are precise conditions. If the European Union does not take the necessary steps, then Turkey will not implement the agreement.Everything that has been promised [must be put into action by the EU], everything that is specified under the accord.
[Referring to the aid for refugees], some three million people are being fed on our budget. There have been promises [of aid] but nothing has come for the moment.
We have received lots of thanks for our action on the refugees and in the fight against terrorism. But we are not doing this for thanks. Everything should happen in line with what has been promised, what has been set out in the text."
There is a lot of opposition in Europe to approving the visa liberalization, which would allow any Turkish citizen to travel freely around the EU. This must be implemented by June, according to the agreement. There is a lot of opposition in Turkey to taking back any migrants from Greece. It's thought that the only reason that the EU agreed to the deal is because the migrant situation has made them desperate, and the only reason that Turkey agreed to the deal was to get leverage to force the visa liberation and to force further steps to be taken in the accession process (not to mention the six billion euros).
For the time being, European officials are claiming that the worst of the migrant crisis is over. If that's true, then we should know by June, but it's far more likely that the entire deal will collapse by then. EU Law Analysis and Hurriyet (Ankara)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Apr-16 World View -- Legal problems and Erdogan's threats may collapse EU-Turkey migrant deal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Apr-2016)
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'Panama Papers' scandal may have triggered Putin's National Guard announcement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In a surprise announcement, Russia's president Vladimir Putin decreed the establishment of a new National Guard force of 200,000 to 400,000 paramilitary security forces with the right to use physical force or firearms on citizens, and the right to enter homes or check documents and vehicles -- all without warning or giving a reason.
The text of the law, as posted on the web site of the State Duma, contains the following:
"Special powers (coercion): Detention, occurrence (penetration) into residential and other premises on land and territory; cordon (blocking) areas of land, premises, buildings and other facilities. ...The troops of the National Guard have the right to detain for the police persons suspected of committing a crime or administrative offense, as well as to detain in order to establish their identity to the police of other persons, detained for a period of not more than three hours and include office space troops of the National Guard prior to the transfer of police officials, to encroach on protected national Guard troops objects as well as objects and possessions national Guard troops, facilities and property of citizens and organizations regardless of their organizational and legal form and form of property. ...
[In addition, they receive the right] to make a personal inspection of the said persons, inspection of vehicles and the things seized from them documents and items prohibited for storage and use; make inspection of vehicles, water craft (vessels), violated the rules established in the protected national Guard troops objects."
According to a statement by Putin, the National Guard troops are tasked with: "participation, together with Russia’s internal affairs bodies, in enforcement of public order, maintenance of public security and emergency rule, participation in the fight against international terrorism and ensuring the legal regime of counter-terrorism operation, participation in the fight against extremism."
However, many observers are claiming that the new National Guard is Putin's person army designed to give him all the powers of a total dictator. Moscow Times and Interfax (Moscow) (Trans) and Tass (Moscow)
At the end of 2011 and in spring 2012, rigged Duma elections triggered mass antigovernment demonstrations in Moscow that had to be controlled violently. Now that new elections are scheduled for September of this year, it's thought that Putin announced the new National Guard in preparation for even larger anti-government protests.
Indeed, Putin's presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday. that "One can assume that, of course, [it will take part] in [suppressing] unauthorized [actions]."
According to Nikolai Petrov, a professor of political science at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Russia's ruling regime, led by Putin, is at risk of collapse, mainly because its entire foundation has been undermined by the massive fall in international oil prices.
Petrov says that Putin has gained electoral legitimacy by generating nationalist feelings through his invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Putin's actions in Syria and against Turkey have also roused public response.
But what's changed in Russia is "the internal balance between the ruling élite," because falling oil prices have squeezed Moscow's budget:
"Most importantly, shrinking government coffers have prompted more intense infighting among the ruling clans as each vies for their place in the sun. The problem is that the current system is based on ever-expanding revenues that provide enough for all. There is no functioning mechanism for resolving conflicting interests and redistributing property and incomes among contending groups. Each new situation requires an executive decision, which increases the frequency of conflict among the elite spilling over into the public eye — such as the sharp confrontation last spring between the leadership of the Federal Security Service and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who heads his own siloviki force. Such clashes strain the system at the seams.The main goal of these struggles is access to the crisis-stricken budget and the chance to curry favor with senior leaders. Therefore, parliamentary elections in September will be held against a backdrop of increased competition among the elite."
In other words, when oil prices were high and everyone and all the business leaders and regional politicians in the ruling élite had access to unlimited amounts of money, there was little conflict at the top. But September's elections will create candidates with loyalties divided between Putin on one side and the élite business leaders and politicians on the other.
Putin's approval numbers remain at record highs, despite the poor economy and rapid growth of mass poverty. But Putin's creation by surprise decree of the new National Guard gives the impression that Putin believes that the internal threat to his regime is rising rapidly, and that steps must be taken immediately to control the threat. Tass (Moscow) and Moscow Times (22-Jan) and Jamestown
Vladimir Putin was not mentioned in the massive leak of 11 million documents from a Panama-based law firm known as the "Panama Papers," and TV stations have shrugged off the entire scandal, so it was considered surprising that Putin felt it necessary on Thursday to make special mention of the Panama Papers and to mock them at a forum for journalists in St. Petersburg.
Although Putin wasn't mentioned, some of his associates appeared in documents, implicated them in an alleged $2 billion money-laundering scheme. One of the names appearing in the documents is that of cellist Sergei Roldugin, an old friend of Putin and reportedly a godfather to one of his daughters. Media reports on the Panama Papers have said Roldugin holds hundreds of millions of dollars in offshore assets.
Another danger for Putin is that American officials are examining the the Panama Papers to gather information on individuals who may be helping Russia to bypass sanctions.
Putin responded to the accusations on Thursday:
"Our opponents are above all concerned by the unity and consolidation of the Russian nation, our multinational Russian people. They are attempting to rock us from within, to make us more obedient. ...I am proud to have people like Sergei [Roldugin] as friends. He has spent nearly all the money he has earned on buying musical instruments abroad and he brought them to Russia.
We always welcome it when somebody does things like that, but he has gone much further. I know that he has spent several months already on efforts to have the instruments registered as property of government-financed institutions."
Opposition leader Aleksei Navalny ridiculed Putin's defense of Roldugin, saying that Roldugin's offshore companies reportedly engaged in suspicious commercial contracts that netted him substantial profits.
However, other government officials said that the Panama Papers story was funded by the US Government and by George Soros, to attack Putin personally and to destabilize Russia.
Vladimir Putin's National Guard announcement has surely been in the works for some time, but the fact that the announcement came suddenly, by surprise, suggests that Putin may have felt it necessary to make the announcement earlier than planned. The event that might have triggered that early announcement was the international "Panama Papers" scandal, revealing enormous alleged corruption in Putin's government, which could possibly result in much greater and much early anti-government protests and riots. RFE/RL and Moscow Times and Russia Today and Moscow Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Apr-16 World View -- Putin decrees new Russian National Guard that can shoot or arrest citizens on sight thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Apr-2016)
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As migrants turn to the Libya route, Germany warns Italy not to wave migrants through
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Migrants who arrive in the European Union are required to register and lodge their asylum requests in the country where they first arrive. That country must then evaluate asylum requests, and either allow them to stay in that country or else deport them back to their countries of origin. The rules about registering migrants comes from the Geneva convention, which was adopted by the EU in the "Dublin II" regulation of 2003.
The Dublin system was already under severe pressure before the migration crisis began. EU member states have been forbidden from sending asylum seekers back to Greece since the European court of human rights ruled in 2011 that conditions for refugees in Greece were so bad they were tantamount to "degrading treatment."
In 2015, over one million migrants poured into Europe, a migration of historic proportions. They arrived mostly into Greece and Italy, but those two countries were unable to handle the volume, so the migrants were mostly just waved through to travel north, usually to Germany. Furthermore, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced last year in August that Syrian refugees were welcome to stay in Germany, essentially negating the Dublin II regulations, the asylum system collapse completely.
European officials are now desperately trying to reform the asylum system by proposing modifications to the Dublin II regulations, to distribute the burden to all 28 countries in the EU. The European Commission is making two proposals:
Germany and Sweden, which absorbed most of the migrants last year, are in favor reforming the Dublin regulations.
Both proposals involve a "mandatory redistribution" scheme similar to the temporary migrant quota system that was enacted last year, and was an almost total failure. That scheme, proposed last year in September, was supposed to relocate 160,000 refugees from Greece and Italy to other EU countries. Only about 1,100 refugees have been resettled so far.
Hungary and Slovakia opposed the migrant quota system last September but were outvoted, and they've filed lawsuits at the EU Court of Justice against the quota system. Unsurprisingly, they're now opposing the new mandatory redistribution reforms. The Czech Republic, Poland and Romania have also voiced opposition.
Tomas Prouza, Czech state secretary for European affairs tweeted on Wednesday: "Permanent quotas once again? How long will the EU commission keep riding this dead horse instead of working on things that really help?" AFP and Guardian (London) and EU Observer and EU Dublin II Regulations
On Monday, about 200 Syrian migrants that had arrived in Greece were deported back to Turkey, under the EU-Turkey deal that was signed las month. Under that deal, all "irregular migrants" arriving in Greece after March 20 are to be sent back to Turkey.
However, that entire process has been stalled. The EU-Turkey deal contains a bizarre "one for one" provision that specifies that for every Syrian migrant sent back to Turkey, Turkey will select another Syrian refugee from its refugee camps and send that refugee back to the EU, to be settled in some European country. And just as in the case of the mandatory redistribution proposals, there is no agreement on how to distribute the refugees returned from Turkey on the one for one deal.
Another problem is that any migrants arriving in Greece are to be given hearings to determine whether they're qualified to seek asylum. According to one report I heard, the Greek authorities are only able to process about 20 asylum registrations per day -- and that doesn't even include the hearings, which can take weeks.
The situation is complicated even further by the fact that a majority of the asylum-seekers in Europe are women and children, and nearly 10% of the women are pregnant.
The EU-Turkey deal that took effect two weeks ago has slowed the flood of migrants into the Greek islands from thousands per day to hundreds per day. That's because the word has spread that the route from Turkey through Greece and north through the Balkans to Germany is now apparently closed permanently.
The fear is that there will be another million refugees entering Europe in 2016, as happened in 2015. But since the Balkan Route is closed, the migrants and human traffickers will choose other, more dangerous routes.
It's estimated that up to 450,000 people will try to reach Europe this year by crossing the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. The EU has been focusing on the route through Turkey and Greece, but the Libya to Italy route has been almost completely ignored, because only 17,500 migrants arrived in Italy from Libya last year. But with the Balkan Route closed, many people expect the route from Libya will be used by hundreds of thousands of migrants, with the flood beginning in the next month as the weather warms.
However, Germany's interior minister Thomas de Maizière warned Italy that its border with Austria, the Brenner Pass, would be closed if Italy simply tried to wave the migrants through to northern countries.
Many European officials are expressing the hope that the worst of the migrant crisis has passed. However, that's what they always say, whether it's Greece's financial crisis or the migrant crisis. The Rube Goldberg EU-Turkey deal has no apparent chance of succeeding, and desperate people will reach their desired destination or die trying.
The reality is that we're in a generational Crisis era in the midst of a massive historic population migration of people from war zones in the Mideast and Africa, and just putting up fences is not going to solve the core problem. No one has predicted the crisis so far, and the fact is that European officials have no idea what's going to happen this year. Express (London) and International Business Times and Daily Mail (London)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Apr-16 World View -- In desperation, EU tries to overhaul its refugee asylum rules thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Apr-2016)
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Syrian jihadists shoot down regime warplane, capture pilot
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Syrian regime media are confirming that jihadists have shot down a Syrian warplane with a surface-to-air missile launched by "terrorist organizations," and that the pilot parachuted to the ground. A furious Syrian regime field command is quoted as saying, “In the imminent future, the fires of hell will open on the armed groups in the north, south, east and west [of Aleppo]," adding that "devastating battles" are planned in revenge.
Ahrar al Sham, an al-Qaeda linked group associated with Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) has claimed responsibility, and says that the Syrian pilot is in custody.
As we reported yesterday, militias opposed to the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad achieved a strategic victory by capturing the village of Al Eis and taking control of a portion of the country's vital M5 highway. Tuesday's shootdown of the Syrian warplane apparently occurred during attempts by the Syrian military to recapture the village.
Western governments have been reluctant to provide arms to groups opposed to al-Assad or to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). They have been particularly reluctant to provide anti-air missiles, out of fear that those missiles would fall into the hands of jihadist groups.
This is the second Syrian warplane to be shot down. Syria says that an anti-aircraft missile was also used to shoot down a warplane in western Syria in March.
If it's confirmed that jihadists now have anti-aircraft missiles, it would be a major escalation in jihadist weaponry. However, it's possible that the warplane was brought down by artillery fire. Daily Star (Beirut) and SANA (Damascus) and Long War Journal and Reuters
A new sanctuary for fighters, planners and recruiters for the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has been established right in the middle of Europe. Some 200-300 Islamist radicals have left Bosnia-Herzegovina to join ISIS or al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq, and as a share of population, more fighters from Bosnia-Herzegovina have joined ISIS than from any other country in Europe except Belgium. There are around a dozen places in Bosnia where Salafists can train radicals, undisturbed by authorities. In fact, the black flag of ISIS is even flown in some remote villages in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
And it can be seen in other Balkan countries besides Bosnia. According to research into six countries in the region -- Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia -- about 877 nationals from the six states have traveled to Syria and Iraq. About 300 are believed to have returned home.
Most Balkan nationals travelled to Syria and Iraq during 2012 and 2013, with the highest numbers coming from Bosnia, Kosovo and Macedonia. The numbers travelling to join jihadi groups declined sharply in 2014, after most states adopted law reforms that criminalize illegally fighting in foreign wars.
The origins of Balkan radicalization can be traced back at least to the Bosnia war of the early 1990s. It was a three-way war, with the Bosniaks [Bosnian Muslims] fighting against the Catholic Croatians and the Orthodox Christian Serbs.
We've described many times how the Soviet Union's occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s triggered a flow of Sunni Muslim jihadists from the Soviet Union to fight the Orthodox Christian invaders, resulting in the formation of al-Qaeda and leading to the 9/11/2001 attacks. (See "12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11"),
A related story can be told about the Bosnian war. Saudi Arabians and other Arabs traveled to Bosnia and formed the Mujahideen Battalion in Bosnia in 1992, to fight the Christian Serbs and Croatians. The Mujahideen Battalion grew to hundreds of volunteers by the end of the war. It's believed that the arrival of the Arabs was supported by Bosnian politicians, in order to please wealthy Arab donors.
After the war, hundreds of Mujahideen Battalion members went from Bosnia to Chechnya, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Among their alumni were two of the 9/11 hijackers, and the murderer of American hostage Daniel Pearl.
During the Bosnian war, hundreds of Arab volunteers came to join the Mujahideen Battalion. Today, the flow of volunteers has reversed, with Bosnian volunteers traveling to Syria to join ISIS.
According to Aimen Dean, a Saudi Arabian volunteer who went to fight in Bosnia in 1994: "There is a war between the West and Islam. Bosnia gave the modern jihadist movement that narrative. It is the cradle." Der Spiegel (Germany) and Balkan Insight (30-Mar) and BBC (2-Jul-2015)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Apr-16 World View -- Radical Islamists finding a new home in Bosnia and Balkan states thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Apr-2016)
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Bangladesh's Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) terror group targets 'atheist bloggers'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A limited cease-fire went into effect in Syria on February 27. Then, on March 15, Russia's president Vladimir Putin announced that most of Russia's forces in Syria would be withdrawn because "the objectives set before the Defense Ministry and the Armed Forces have on the whole been achieved."
The cease-fire had been mostly holding, despite some violations. But now it may be collapsing. On Friday, jihadists working with rebel groups scored a new victory over the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, by taking over the village of Al Eis 16 miles southwest of Aleppo. According to the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), al-Nusra Front militants deployed three suicide bombers and a number of armored vehicles to breach the government’s defensive lines and take over the village.
The capture of Al Eis is a strategic victory because it controls a section of the M5 highway, a vital artery that serves as the backbone of the country’s road system. The al-Nusra militias were aided by militias from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), as well as from some so-called "moderate" anti-Assad rebel militias. The three groups have very different objectives, but they have one objective in common: the defeat of Bashar al-Assad.
We might presume that al-Assad's army can pull together enough troops and, with the help of massive bombing by Russian warplanes, can recapture Al Eis. But the point of mentioning this victory by the anti-Assad forces, even if temporary, is that the cease-fire, if it ever existed, is collapsing.
As I wrote several times in February, the "cessation of hostilities" ( "12-Feb-16 World View -- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria") and cease-fire had absolutely no chance of succeeding for several reasons:
There have been talks of a "political solution" in Syria for over a year, and I always wondered what ISIS and al-Nusra would do when presented with a "political solution," given that they aren't even part of the peace negotiations in Geneva. When I wrote about the Geneva 'proximity talks' in January, I had just heard a BBC analyst who gave an answer to that very question. He said that once a political solution was reached, then all the Sunni jihadists would leave ISIS and al-Nusra, and go home, since the political solution would leave them no more reason to fight, and then ISIS and al-Nusra would dissolve.
As I said at the time, this is the kind of Fantasyland and state of total denial that the politicians live in. The fall of Al Eis is an indication that the war will go on for some time, because none of the major participants in Syria really wants it to end.
In 2003, the American military declared "Mission accomplished!" in Iraq. Now Vladimir Putin has done the same in Syria. I would be very surprised if Russia is really finished in Syria. LA Times and Reuters
A significant danger to Bangladesh and to the entire region is the rapid growth of a new generation terror organization, the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), which particularly targets tech-savvy college educated intellectual jihadists. It differs significantly from older major militant Islamic fundamentalist groups because its main goal is not fighting or influencing the political-administrative structures in order to implement their Islamic fundamentalist ideology or to carry out spectacular terrorist attack to discredit the state to gain publicity.
Instead, their focus seems to be the eradication of secular or atheist bloggers, or any other media people who they believe pose a threat to their fundamentalist Islamic teachings and lifestyle. The main targets are liberal, independent and secular academic and independent intellectuals, bloggers and cultural personalities.
For example, on May 12, 2015, Ananta Bijoy Das (32), a progressive writer, blogger, editor of science fiction magazine Jukti, and an organizer of Gonojagoron Mancha (People's Resurgence Platform), was hacked to death, using machetes, by four assailants. Earlier, on March 30, 2015, another blogger and online activist Oyasiqur Rahman Babu (27) had been hacked to death in broad daylight in Dhaka city for his allegedly atheist views. In 2013, ABT had issued a list of 84 “atheist bloggers” on the grounds that "All of them are enemy of the Islam."
ABT is distinguished from better known Islamist extremist groups in Bangladesh by its propaganda and indoctrination capabilities. ABT projects its doctrine of jihad through 117 web pages, including Facebook and Twitter handles, and various blogs. Unlike older jihadist groups, ABT is able to adapt quickly to new government security measures, and so presents an enormous danger to Bangladesh and the region. E-International Relations (30-Jan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and The Hindu 24-Sep-2015
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Apr-16 World View -- Russia declared 'Mission complete' in Syria and withdrew, but the war rages on thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Apr-2016)
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Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict extremely dangerous, despite 'unilateral ceasefire'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Heavy fighting continued on Sunday for the second day between Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh (NKB). As I reported yesterday, there is widespread concern that this conflict could spread south into the Mideast and north into the Caucasus.
There were many international calls for a cease-fire. Armenia accused Azerbaijan of starting the renewed fighting. Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev accused Armenia of violating international law, and announced a "unilateral ceasefire":
"We won't abandon our principal position, but at the same time, we observe the ceasefire, and after that we will try to solve the conflict peacefully. At the same time, we will strengthen our army. We are fighting on our territory. If an Armenian soldier doesn't want to die, then let him get off Azeri territory. I have said that many times, and I want to repeat it now."
However, Artsrun Hovhannisyan, spokesman for the Armenian Defence Ministry, said: "The statement by the Azerbaijan side is an information trap and does not amount to a unilateral ceasefire."
The Nagorno-Karabakh military (which holds to the position that it is distinct from the Armenian military) said: "The Nagorno-Karabakh armed forces are ready to meet and discuss a ceasefire proposal in the context of restoring former positions."
In fact, there have been reports of continued fighting by both sides.
As we described in yesterday's report, the NKB conflict is extremely dangerous. There are reports that Turkey is openly supporting Azerbaijan. Russia is remaining nominally neutral, but Armenia is an important Russian ally, while Turkey is an important Russian enemy. It's possible that either Turkey or Russia could intervene militarily, in which case, the conflict would draw other countries in and begin to spiral. AzerTag (Azerbaijan) and Reuter
In a surprise, a document has emerged by the leaders of Syria's Alawite sect dissociating members of the sect from the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
Al-Assad himself is an Alawite, and the Alawites have been the group in Syria most loyal to him, as al-Assad has conducted his genocidal attempts to exterminate the Sunni majority as if they were cockroaches. But this relationship is at a high cost for the Alawites:
The new document is called a "Declaration of Identity Reform." The document concedes "that we have been, for far too long, defined with the words of others rather than our own," and seeks to remedy this situation by establishing a new and distinct identity.
In interviews with foreign journalists, Alawite leaders said that they "should not be associated with the crimes the regime has committed." The document says that Syria has suffered because of "totalitarian regimes:
"The vicissitudes of the Syrian land tender proof that no true national integration has materialized yet. A national integration was forged before the era of the modern State through the coercion of imperial rule. Later, it became no more than an illusion exhibited by totalitarian regimes. ...26: The ruling political power, whoever embodies it, does not represent us nor does it shape our identity or preserves our safety and reputation. Nor do we, the Alawites, substantiate it or generate its power. The legitimacy of a regime can only be considered according to the criteria of democracy and fundamental rights."
Finally, and perhaps most surprisingly, the document declares that Alawism is not a branch of Shia Islam, as has been widely reported in the press for years;
"28: We do not speak, in this Declaration, as religious preachers but as people inspired by religious thought. Doctrinal Islam, Sunni or Shia, in our view, originated in a quest to understand God's message, the religious. It focuses on what comes from God. In contrast, Alawism can be regarded as a quest to understand what God truly is. In Doctrinal Islam, God is behind everything. In Alawism, everything is hidden behind God.Our differentiation of Alawism from Shiism is not a shift from the latter, nor an evolutionary act. It is a reverence to the primary and original truth.
29: The fact that Alawism and Shiism share some formal religious sources does not make Alawism a branch of Shiism. Since Shiism until today allows for the constructive interpretation of religious texts (Al-Ijtihad) it was merely an obligatory passage for all those who wanted to restore or even revolutionize Muslim thought."
The document also calls for integration with other religions:
"35: Alawism incorporates elements of other monotheist religions, most notably Judaism and Christianity. These elements enrich Alawism and shall not be seen as marks of deviation from Islam but as elements that bear witness to our riches and universality."
Alawite Declaration of Identify Reform (PDF) and Telegraph (London) and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Apr-16 World View -- Syria's Alawites threaten to abandon Bashar al-Assad thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Apr-2016)
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New EU-Turkey migrant crisis is developing rapidly
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Centuries old conflicts between Orthodox (Armenian Apostolic) Christians in Armenia and (mostly Shia) Muslims in Azerbaijan boiled over into a bloody war after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. By the time that the war ended in a cease-fire in 1994, the Armenians had annexed several Azerbaijani regions, and were in control of an enclave right in the middle of Azerbaijan called Nagorno-Karabakh (NKB). Although both populations had lived in relative peace for decades, more than 600,000 ethnic Azeris and 300,000 ethnic Armenians were forced to flee from the fighting, so that today the enclave has a population of about 100,000 Armenians.
Karabakh is a word of Turkic and Persian origin meaning "black garden", while "Nagorno" is a Russian word meaning "mountain."
When I wrote about this conflict in December, I quoted Azerbaijan sources as saying that Armenian forces had broken the cease-fire 105 times over a single weekend, while Armenian sources were saying that Azerbaijanis had broken the cease-fire 110 times over the same weekend. ( "7-Dec-15 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency")
Fears that the low-level conflict might spiral into a larger war were realized on Saturday when the worst violence since 1994 broke out in NKB with tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters for the first time in two decades. 18 Armenian soldiers were killed, and Azerbaijan lost 12 soldiers. There were unconfirmed reports of civilian deaths.
Internationally, NKB is considered part of Azerbaijan's sovereign territory, but its Armenian inhabitants call themselves citizens of the Artsakh Republic. The territory has its own flag, an international airport, police and armed forces, although regular Armenian soldiers serve on the frontline.
Each side said that the other had started the conflict on Saturday.
There is a peculiarity about this situation that's either a coincidence or a conspiracy - take your pick.
Armenia's president Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev each met separately with US vice president Joe Biden as they attended the nuclear summit in Washington on Friday, just before the new hostilities broke out.
Matthew Bryza, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, speaking on the BBC, recalled what happened in 2008, when the world was focused on the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Bryza says that he's always suspected that Russia's president (then prime minister) Vladimir Putin took advantage of the 2008 Beijing Olympics to start a war in Georgia by firing at Georgian forces from behind the South Ossetian separatist peacekeepers, resulting in full-scale war after Georgia responded.
Bryza says that this "smells like" the same thing -- Putin snubbed President Obama's invitation to attend this Washington summit. Then the two leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet with Biden, and at that very moment, the violence reaches an unprecedented new level. Bryza says that Putin is very much engaged in the situation, while Obama is ignoring it. Bryza says that this "conspiracy thinking" could be way off, but the US has to become actively engaged. If not, Russia will completely dominate the region. BBC and AFP and AP and The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training (ADST)
Armenia and Azerbaijan are two of the most militarized countries in the world. The main supplier of weaponry to both countries has been Russia. Furthermore, both countries have some of the world's most sophisticated high tech military equipment. The widespread fear of escalation of the violence in Nagorno-Karabakh (NKB) is because both sides possess such high tech military equipment from Russia.
Russia is theoretically neutral between the two countries, but if that was ever true, it certainly stopped being true after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane last year, causing a major fault line to open between the two countries. Armenia is a long-time ally of Russia, and Russia has a military base in Armenia. Azerbaijan is ethnically Turkic, and has very close relations with Turkey. Azerbaijan has military treaties with Turkey. Azerbaijani and Turkish Armed Forces regularly conduct joint military exercises, and two are planned in 2016. ( "21-Jan-16 World View -- Azerbaijan forced to choose between Russia and Turkey")
An analysis by Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis in Moscow, divides the four countries into the "senior comrades" -- Russia and Turkey -- and the "junior allies" -- Armenia and Azerbaijan. He says that Russia is in a "delicate position" because it sold weapons to Azerbaijan, as well as to Armenia, "our closest ally in the CSTO," the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
According to Khramchikhin:
In this regard, a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan can very easily escalate into armed conflict between the "senior comrades" - Russia and Turkey. Besides that, there is also a significant probability of direct military clashes over Syria.The peculiarity of the situation is that the "senior" allies do not abut with their "younger" allies, but border on the "junior" enemies: Russia with Azerbaijan, and Turkey with Armenia. And there is not a zero probability that military hardware that we sold to Azerbaijan will be used to fight not only against our closest ally, but also against the Russian army.
If Russia and Turkey start a war that will involve and Armenia, in Azerbaijan there is a strong temptation to attack from the north of Karabakh, using the fact that the Armenian Armed Forces are fully engaged on the Turkish front. However, in this case, Azerbaijan itself has a chance to blow from the north of Russia. Moreover, there is a substantial likelihood that Iran will not only sympathize with the Russian-Armenian coalition and directly fight on her side. Then Azerbaijan will get even with Iran, which will make a battle not just to win, but for survival."
Saturday already saw the greatest outbreak of military hostilities since 1994. A further escalation of the conflict could destabilize the entire Mideast, and could also destabilize in the entire South and North Caucasus regions, at a time when Russia already has its hands full in Ukraine and Syria.
Russia may consider the option of deploying Russian troops or CSTO peacekeepers in Armenia proper along the border with Azerbaijan, in order to attempt to stabilize the situation. Jamestown and Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kurier (Moscow, 16-Mar, Trans) and Russia Direct (Moscow)
Another major crisis is developing rapidly: Greece will be sending migrants back to Turkey starting on Monday, and it's widely believed that Turkey is not ready. Furthermore, many people in Turkey are opposed to receiving the migrants back from Europe. The first group of 750 refugees are scheduled to be returned to Turkey at the beginning of the week. International Business Times and Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Apr-2016)
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N. Korea's Kim Jong-un gains 70 pounds, tells citizens to 'eat roots'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
N. Korea's Kim Jong-un gains 70 pounds, tells citizens to 'eat roots'
An editorial in North Korea's state-run media contained this announcement:
"The road to revolution is long and arduous. We may have to go on an arduous march, during which we will have to chew the roots of plants once again. The phrase "arduous march" alludes to a 1990s famine. The announcement amounts to a warning that a new famine is approaching. President Kim Jong-un has not been eating roots, apparently. Recent pictures show that he's put on 70 pounds in the last year. North Korea has ordered every citizen in the capital to provide around two pounds of rice to the state’s supplies every month, while starving farmers are forced to hand over much of the food they produce to the military. Daily Mail (London) and Fox News
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Tensions grow in Israel and West Bank over shooting of disabled Palestinian
On March 24, two young Palestinians in Hebron in the West Bank stabbed and wounded an Israeli soldier. Nearby soldiers shot the two Palestinians dead. But a video emerged shortly afterwards, showing that the incident was a lot more complicated. In particular, it shows an Israeli soldier, eleven minutes after the stabbing incident, approaching one of the Palestinians while he was lying on the ground, already disabled, and shooting the disabled assailant in the head, after which blood pours out of his head. The video went viral. The Israeli soldier was arrested. There was a chorus of condemnation. Israeli public opinion was against the soldier. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, it did not "represent the values of the Israeli Defense Forces." Nickolay Mladenov, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, called it an "extrajudicial execution," and said, "This was a gruesome, immoral, and unjust act that can only fuel more violence and escalate an already volatile situation." After that, two more videos of the same incident have emerged. One of them seems to show Israeli soldiers congratulating each other on the kill, while the other seems to show that the soldier was afraid that disabled Palestinian was wearing a bomb. Since then, Israeli opinions have started changing in favor of the soldier. Netanyahu met with the father of the Israeli soldier, and said, "In recent months our soldiers have bravely and resolutely stood up in the face of terrorist attacks and murderers who set out to kill them. The soldiers are forced to make decisions in the field, in real time, under stress and conditions of uncertainty. This is not a simple reality and I'm sure that the investigation is taking the entirety of these circumstances into account. I am convinced that the investigation will be professional and fair towards your son." Military prosecutors say that the evidence showed that the soldier killed the killed Palestinian assailant "deliberately and unnecessarily": "In our opinion, the evidence indicates serious suspicions against the suspect." However, the initial charge of murder was downgraded to manslaughter. No reason was given, but it likely indicates that the prosecution believes it would have difficulty proving the act was premeditated. Ayman Odeh, a Palestinian member of Israel's Knesset, was quoted as saying, "Israel has become a place where public executions are carried out with the cheers of the crowd. The price of security and moral deterioration is being paid by both peoples." Times of Israel and LA Times and Ma'an News (West Bank)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Apr-16 World View -- Tensions grow in Israel and West Bank over shooting of disabled Palestinian thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(2-Apr-2016)
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China-US differences sharpen over South China Sea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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China is in the final phase of testing the world's longest range missile, the DF-41, with an operational range of 14,500 km. It can travel over the Pacific Ocean and strike any city in the western US, or travel over the North Pole and strike any city in the eastern US, in each case within about half an hour.
It's believed that each DF-41 is capable of carrying ten independently targetable nuclear weapons. A typical Chinese Second Artillery Corps (SAC) might have 12 missile launchers capable of launching two DF-41s each, so a single SAC has the capability to target the United States with 120-240 nuclear warheads.
The DF-41 is expected to be deployed by the end of this year.
I'm always somewhat bemused when people make comments that the greatest existential threat to the United States is the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), or even Iran. Either of those threats is minuscule compared to the threat from China.
For years, I've been writing about one Chinese missile system after another, specifically designed to strike American aircraft carriers or American cities. China has the manufacturing capacity to produce hundreds of these missiles, and clearly is preparing for war and planning to use them. Compared to China, ISIS really is junior varsity. South China Morning Post and Express (London) and China Topix
A meeting between president Barack Obama and China's president Xi Jinping at the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington on Thursday is being called "constructive," and it was constructive, if by "constructive" you mean that it provided a forum for sharp disagreements bordering on military threats.
On Wednesday, prior to the meeting, a Dept. of Defense spokesman announced that the US would not recognize an "air defense identification zone" (ADIZ) in the South China Sea, in case China decided to impose one.
The spokesman said that the US expects a ruling from an international court within the next few weeks on a case brought by the Philippines against China over its claims to the entire South China Sea. The fear is that China would react angrily to an adverse ruling, and try to impose an ADIZ in the South China Sea, just as it did in the East China Sea near Japan in 2013. The US refused to recognize that ADIZ either.
If an ADIZ in the South China Sea were recognized, then any foreign aircraft would have to ask permission from China to fly through it. US officials have repeatedly said that the US military would fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows.
Xi responded by warning the US that China would not accept violations of its sovereignty in the name of freedom of navigation. Xi is quoted as saying, "The hope is that all parties will correctly view and handle the South China Sea and adopt an objective and impartial attitude ... particularly countries outside this region."
Some $5 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea on ships each year, including $1.2 trillion of US trade.
China had pledged never to militarize the South China Sea, but has reneged on that promise, suggesting that nothing that China says is to be believed. China has built several artificial islands in the South China Sea and converted them into military bases with military aircraft and advanced radar, the military force that would be used to try to enforce an ADIZ. Reuters and The Hill and South China Morning Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Apr-16 World View -- China close to deploying very long range DF-41 missile thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Apr-2016)
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