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Brief generational history of Uzbekistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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All that's known with reasonable certainty is that Uzbekistan's 78-year-old ruthless, bloody dictator, Islam Karimov has been hospitalized with a cerebral hemorrhage. The reason that we think we know that last bit is because his younger daughter, Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva, said so on Instagram on Monday. The rumors are that Karimov has already died. Either way, it's not thought that he'll ever govern again.
Karimov became leader of Uzbekistan's Communist Party in the 1980s, the last decade of the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Uzbekistan became an independent country, and Karimov became president. He's been re-elected to office several times in elections that are widely believed to have been rigged.
Karimov has been one of the bloodiest and most brutal dictators in the world, massacring civilians and even boiling protesters alive. According to Human Rights Watch, "thousands are imprisoned on politically-motivated charges. Torture is endemic in the criminal justice system. Authorities continue to crack down on civil society activists, opposition members, and journalists." Possibly the bloodiest event in Karimov's tenure was the killing of hundreds of peaceful protesters in the Fergana valley in 2005.
These are, unfortunately, standard tactics for a dictator of a country in the decades following a generational crisis civil war. We see it every day in Syria, where Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad is conducting a genocidal holocaust against the losing ethnic group, the Sunnis. We see it all the time in Zimbabwe, where president Robert Mugabe, of the Shona tribe, has conducted a continuing holocaust against the losing tribe the Nbdele.
The reason that these bloody dictators do what they do is because they believe that it's necessary to prevent more tribal fighting and, even more important, it's necessary to prevent the dictator from being thrown out of office, giving power to the other tribe.
Karimov used more than just torture and atrocities to keep the country and the region stable. He had relations with all the powers -- the US, Russia, China, and the other Central Asian nations -- and was able to play them off one another.
Uzbekistan is right in the middle of Central Asia, and shares a border with all the other Central Asia states. Instability there would quickly spread to the entire region. One border that's of particular importance to Americans is the one with Afghanistan, where American troops are fighting the Taliban, and the Taliban are gaining strength. Besides the Taliban, one particularly potent al-Qaeda linked jihadist group is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), who for the last decade have been considered the most formidable terrorist group in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The fragility of the region was illustrated on Tuesday by car bombing near the Chinese Embassy in Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan, injuring three embassy personnel. No one has claimed responsibility, but the perpetrators might be Uighur separatists or the IMU or a terror group linked to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). It's not believed that the attack is related to Karimov's stroke, but it illustrates the growing threat of jihadist terrorism, especially since it's believed that several thousand Uzbeks have gone to Syria to fight Bashar al-Assad.
Thursday is Uzbekistan's independence day. In the past, Karimov has attended the celebrations and performed a traditional dance. Whether he's dead or still alive, it's not expected that he'll be doing his dance this time. We may get a sense of whether there is a solid line of succession or whether there'll be a succession battle that could spiral out of control. CNN and Atlantic Sentinel and Irish Times and Stratfor and Xinhua
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The historic importance of Uzbekistan is well illustrated by how many conquering armies swept through. By about 400 BC, the Uzbekistan region was dominated by tribes of Persian descent and Greek descent, conquered by Alexander the Great. The region became critical for trade between China and the Roman Empire. In the 700s AD, only a few decades after the Prophet Mohammed, the armies of Islam invaded and took control. Around 1000 AD, a confederation of Turkish tribes known as the Ghazna conquered part of the region and established a state.
In the thirteenth century the Mongol leader Genghis Khan put together an alliance of Mongol and Turkic tribes in north central Asia, known as the Golden Horde, which embarked upon a conquest of much of Asia. One of the leaders of that alliance was Uzbek, a man who accepted Sunni Islam as his religion. The Moslem branch of the Golden Horde became known as the Uzbeks.
In the mid-1800s, the Russians invaded, with an ironic outcome. Russia had lost its supply of cotton from the southern United States because of the American Civil War, and the Russians wanted to establish a safe source of cotton, and so they developed a large cotton-producing agriculture in Uzbekistan.
World War I and the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 was an extremely bloody generational crisis war for Uzbekistan, fought between the Sunni Muslim Uzbeks and the Orthodox Christian Russians. This was Uzbekistan's last generational crisis war.
World War II thus occurred during a generational Awakening era for the Uzbeks. Thus the Uzbeks stayed out of the war, and in fact carried out a "humanitarian mission," according to Turkish history. Russia drafted thousands of Uzbek men to fight the Nazis, but the the country itself performed a humanitarian mission by sheltering hundreds of thousands of refugees from fascist occupied territories.
As part of Stalin's Soviet Union, Uzbekistan became a cotton powerhouse starting in the 1920s. In support of the cotton trade, millions of ethnic Russians began pouring into the country, especially into the fertile Fergana Valley (or Ferghana Valley), in the far eastern portion of the country.
The old Uzbek / Russian fault line became critical again, starting in the 1980s with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. At that time, Uzbek militants began joining the Pashtuns in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets.
1991 was a pivotal year for the Fergana Valley. That was the year that the Soviet Union collapsed, resulting in the formation of Uzbekistan as an independent republic. It also resulted in a great deal of financial hardship for the Russians in the Fergana Valley. The result was the first signs of Islamic fundamentalism in Uzbekistan when some unemployed young Muslims seized the Communist Party headquarters in the city of Namangan in the Fergana Valley.
The leaders of this terrorist action, Tohir Yuldeshev and Juma Namangani, eventually made their way to Afghanistan in 1996, after the Taliban had taken control of the government. They joined Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda, and formed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).
The IMU has been playing an important role in terrorist acts in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Karimov's bloody massacre of hundreds of peaceful protesters in 2005 was an attempt to prevent a violent takeover by Islamist IMU militants. Journal of Turkish Weekly and San José State University and Advantour
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Aug-16 World View -- Uzbekistan's dictator president Karimov suffers stroke, threatening Central Asia stability thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Aug-2016)
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Hong Kong police prepare for election day riots from pro-independence activists
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In the summer of 2014, tens of thousands of Hong Kong citizens, mostly college age, staged a series of pro-democracy protests, bring central Hong Kong to a standstill. These were the largest protests since Britain gave up its Hong Kong colony in 1997, returning it to Chinese sovereignty. It was also the worst and bloodiest police violence in Hong Kong since 1997.
The police attacked the protesters with tear gas, and the protesters defended themselves with umbrellas to protect themselves from the tear gas. The sight of bright yellow umbrellas became commonplace, and the protests have become known as the "Umbrella Revolution" or "Umbrella movement."
What sparked the Umbrella Movement was that Beijing reneged on its commitment to "one country, two systems." According to the agreement that China made with Britain in 1997, when Britain returned its Hong Kong colony to Chinese control, Beijing would pursue Communism and Socialism, while Hong Kong would retain its democracy, its capitalist system, and its way of life for at least 50 years, until 2047.
However, for the approaching 2017 elections, China is calling the elections "free," but is tightly controlling who will be permitted to run in the elections. The only candidates who will be permitted to be run have to be approved a "nominating committee" completely controlled by Beijing. So the effect is that the so-called "free" elections are rigged to guarantee that only candidates selected by Beijing can win the elections.
The Umbrella Movement is considered a complete failure, because nothing changed. China adamantly refused to make any changes to the 2017 election process, and so it's still absolutely guaranteed that the so-called "free" 2017 elections will be tightly controlled, and any candidate that wins the election is also guaranteed to be tightly controlled by Beijing.
According to 25-year-old Edward Leung Tin-kei, who took part in the Umbrella protests, "I was a peaceful protester. But what have we achieved? Nothing."
The Umbrella Movement was conducted by peaceful protesters who only wanted China to meet its commitment for free elections. The failure of the Umbrella Movement to accomplish anything has caused the radicalization of its leaders, to the point where for the first time they're demanding independence for Hong Kong. BBC and Hong Kong Free Press
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The failure of the Umbrella Movement caused its young generation leaders to reevaluate their motives and what risks they're willing to take to achieve their goals.
However, it was an event several months ago that really galvanized the rise of the independence movement. Several Hong Kong booksellers who had been selling pro-democracy books in their bookstores disappeared mysteriously in October of last year.
Although it was widely believed that Beijing had abducted them, there was no proof until June of this year, when 61-year-old Lam Wing-kee, one of the booksellers, suddenly surfaced in Hong Kong and held a press conference, saying that Chinese agents had abducted him. "They blindfolded me and put a cap on my head and basically bundled me up."
He gave a detailed description of what happened. He was arrested after crossing the border from Hong Kong into the southern mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen in October, and was kept in a 200 sq ft room for five months under guard. He was forced to sign a document admitting to crimes that he hadn't committed, and giving up his right to a lawyer or to speak to his family.
Eventually he confessed to his "crimes" on television, and then was released on bail. His press conference was a complete surprise to everyone. He said he had decided to speak out after thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Hong Kong to protest the booksellers’ disappearances. "Hongkongers will not bow down before brute force," Lam said.
Four other abducted booksellers are still in Chinese jails.
Lam Wing-kee's story lit a fuse among the former members of the Umbrella Movement, turning it into a full-fledged independence movement. According to one Hong Kong lawmaker:
"It’s now obvious to everyone that the so-called ‘one country, two systems’ promise is completely in tatters. We need to stand firm and stand tall and really fight back. ...This is not just an ordinary detention. This is literally a kidnapping by Beijing authorities."
In July, the Hong Kong administration disqualified six potential candidates with pro-independence stances from running in the 2016 Legislative Council election.
Earlier this year, any talk of Hong Kong independence was completely unthinkable. But the disqualification action led, in early August, to the first pro-independence rally in Hong Kong history. Pro-independence activists are now referring to themselves as "localists." A poll last month showed that one in six Hongkongers supported independence.
25-year-old activist Edward Leung Tin-kei, whom we quoted earlier, has become a leader of the pro-independence movement. Speaking at the rally, he said:
"Hong Kong’s sovereignty doesn’t belong to Xi Jinping, the Communist Party, the Chinese or local governments – the sovereignty always belongs to us."
A 30-year-old mother of two, attending the rally with her children, said, "If Hong Kong doesn’t become independent, our next generation’s well-being will be hampered." AFP (16-June) and Guardian (London, 17-June) and Time (5-Aug) and Reuters (7/25)
The Beijing view of the independence movement is summarized by Chinese state media Global Times:
"From mainstream society in Hong Kong to Beijing, there is awareness that Hong Kong independence should not be given any credence. However, some political forces in Hong Kong have tried to make use of these calls to serve their own ends. Meanwhile, other dissenting sentiments may also expand by riding on the extreme independence wave. These have created room for the Hong Kong independence farce to grow.The Hong Kong authorities have realized that it is time to set systematic restraints. The general public in Hong Kong has also acknowledged the harmful effects.
Such things as Hong Kong independence can by no means be tolerated in the mainland. But under the Hong Kong system, odd things are never a surprise. The West would like to see a farce, but its own farces may be more eye-catching."
So it's America's fault. Nothing new there.
Beijing is trying to crush the pro-independence movement by disqualifying candidates and by acting like Mafia gangsters, abducting booksellers of all people.
The Beijing politicians are just stupid as politicians in the west. They think that they will stop protests by college age students by abducting booksellers. Is Xi Jinping a total idiot? Do these Chinese officials have no sense of their own history? Do they think that Mao Zedong would have been stopped if Chiang Kai-shek had abducted some booksellers?
According to a Hong Kong columnist:
"Don’t worry. All this talk of independence by Hong Kong’s younger generation will fizzle out in time. Anyone who tells you that is either an idiot or takes you for one.The independence movement has gained too much traction. Time will not derail it, nor temper the hostility many young people have towards mainland China. Compare it to a cancer if you like. It has spread from loony talk to universities, and now to secondary schools. ...
When so many believe fantasy can become reality, the worst thing you can do is to dismiss it as a passing folly
A political cause dies only when the reasons that spawned it no longer apply. But the reasons that lit the independence fire still remain. In fact, more have materialized, convincing young people that independence is a wall that can guard against mainland culture invading Hong Kong. You can’t blame them for thinking that way when they see booksellers being abducted, their peers being blocked as Legislative Council candidates for their political beliefs, and Beijing loyalists demanding a ban on independence talk in schools.
Yes, Hong Kong independence is fantasy, but when so many believe fantasy can become reality, the worst thing you can do is to dismiss it as a passing folly. Trying to choke it with tactics that go against Hong Kong’s values won’t work either."
As in America, this is a generational Crisis era for China. Just as young Americans are supporting loons like Bernie Sanders, young Hongkongers are going to support independence. The difference is that America has political freedoms and structures that permit the political energy to be diffused, while Chinese thugs use gangster tactics that only guarantee that the political energy will increase. We haven't seen the end of this issue. Global Times (Beijing, 8-Aug) and Hong Kong Free Press and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
With the independence movement growing in Hong Kong, authorities fear protests and violence during the Legislative Council elections to be held on Sunday. Kowtowing to Beijing, the Hong Kong administration had disqualified six potential candidates from running, on the grounds that they may support Hong Kong independence from China.
As a result, Hong Kong police will be deployed in massive numbers on Sunday. Over 5,000 police officers will be stationed at police stations around the city to combat "possible unrest." According to officials:
"There is a risk of unrest [during the elections] because causing trouble is one of their propaganda campaigns to promote independence and reach their target. ...About 40 officers [on the morning shift] will be sent out in case of any trouble in their police district. Another 30 detectives working in each of the stations will also be deployed in case of any major unrest."
In preparation, police have running training exercises, using dozens of mock protesters staging a sit-in. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Aug-16 World View -- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Aug-2016)
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America may be forced to choose between Turkey and Kurds
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Turkey continued execution of "Operation Euphrates Shield" on Sunday by striking at the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia backed by the United States in its fight with the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Airstrikes from Turkish warplanes killed at least 25 or more people near the city of Jarablus. Turkey claims that all those killed were Kurdish terrorists. Other reports claim that dozens of civilians were killed.
Besides striking at ISIS, a major objective of Turkey's invasion into Syria is to prevent further expansion of the region controlled by Syrian Kurds.
As the map above shows, the YPG now controls large regions of northern Syria, including an uninterrupted 400 km (250 mile) stretch of the Syrian-Turkish border from the eastern frontier with Iraq to the Euphrates river, and a pocket of territory in northwestern Syria. The Kurds want to gain control of the region in between, controlling a long strip of land, creating an independent Kurdish state called Rojava.
The Turkish military objective is to prevent the Kurds from doing this, and to force the YPG in the east to retreat back across the Euphrates River.
The Kurds have had some notable military successes recently. It was only a couple of weeks ago that the Syrian Kurds regained control of the city of Manbij from ISIS. ( "14-Aug-16 World View -- Wild celebrations in Manbij Syria, after major defeat for ISIS") Since then, the Kurds began advancing on Jarablus in the east, and on the city of Azaz in the west.
A major ISIS terror attack on a wedding in Gaziantep, a Turkish town near Jarablus, there was a major change in Turkish policy, which led to the military invasion of Syria. ( "22-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan announces a complete U-turn on Syria policy")
Operation Euphrates Shield has already prevent the Kurds from taking control of Jarablus, and the Turks have indicated that they intend to drive the Kurds out of Manbij, back across the Euphrates River. The Turks say that they will take control of a region up to 30 kilometers from the border with Turkey, and create a "safe zone" for civilians, under the control of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
In a speech on Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he considers ISIS and the YPG to be the same:
"These betrayers will be drowned in the blood they shed. ... Turkey has not and will not surrender to any terrorist organizations or terror methods. ... We know the same face is behind all of them [ISIS and YPG].Turkey has no toleration for any terrorist organization activities within its borders and nearby. Our operations against the separatist organization [YPG] will continue without interruption."
Erdogan's remarks echo the statement on Friday by Turkey's prime minister Binali Yildirim: "We’ve declared all-out war against these terrorist groups." Anadolu (Ankara) and BBC
Turkey's invasion of Syria so far consists of warplanes, tanks, artillery, and special forces, backed by an army of so-called "moderate" Syrian rebels known as the Free Syrian Army, or FSA. Turkey is targeting both ISIS and the Kurdish YPG.
The United States is an ally of Turkey, which is a member of Nato. The US is also an ally of the YPG, which has been the most effective force fighting ISIS. And the US has also supported the FSA, because they were fighting against the forces of the genocidal president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad.
The US has been "forced to choose" between Turkey and the Kurds. In a visit to Ankara on Wednesday, US vice president Joseph Biden said:
"We have made it absolutely clear that they [pro-Kurdish forces] must go back across the [Euphrates] River. They cannot and will not, under no circumstances, get American support if they do not keep that commitment."
A big question is whether the Kurds will "obey" Biden's mandate. The Kurds have a long history of feeling betrayed by the West, and with an independent state in sight, they may refuse to retreat.
Both Russia and Syria's al-Assad regime approve of the Turkish invasion of northern Syria, because it's the only thing preventing the Kurds from taking control of the entire northern region and declaring the independent Kurdish state of Rojava. Washington Post and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC (23-Aug)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Aug-16 World View -- US forced to choose between two close allies, as Turks bomb Kurds in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Aug-2016)
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Greece makes contingency plans for 180,000 more migrants
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán announced that Hungary may erect a second fence along the border with Serbia, parallel to the existing fence. The existing 500 km fence was built hastily last year in September, in defiance of European Union criticisms. It's a four-meter-high razor wire fence that has slowed, but not stopped, the flow of migrants from Serbia. The new "massive" fence, if erected, will use "the most modern technology."
The new fence will be built if the EU-Turkey migrant deal collapses. Last year, about 400,000 migrants crossed into Hungary from Serbia. That's been reduced to 18,000 in 2016, because of the EU-Turkey deal, but it's expected that the massive flood of migrants would return if the deal collapsed.
Orbán announced other steps as well. Hungary will increase the number of border police by 3,000, to 47,000 from 44,000. According to Orbán, "Then if it does not work with nice words, we will have to stop them with force, and we will do so."
Hungary has already passed a law imposing a three-year prison sentence on those who cross its borders illegally.
The EU government in Brussels has announced a plan to allow a limited number of migrants to enter Europe, and then to resettle them in all 28 countries in the EU, according to a quota system. Orbán has scheduled a referendum for October 2 on whether to accept migrants for resettlement. Balkan Insight and Reuters and Russia Today
If the EU-Turkey migrant deal collapses, then Greece can expect an additional 180,000 migrants and refugees from Turkey to reach Greece this year. Since Turkey's July 15 attempted coup, the number of migrants reaching Greece has gone from almost zero to about 100 per day. ( "18-Aug-16 World View -- Number of migrants reaching Greece surges since Turkey's attempted coup")
Greece has been working to upgrade its overcrowded refugee camps, which have been described as abysmal, where security is lax and mothers with babies are forced to sleep on the ground in makeshift tents. Conditions are particularly bad on the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea -- Lesvos, Chios and Samos -- with new migrants arriving every day, but unable to travel any further.
Greece has been building new refugee camps to reduce the overcrowding. It's estimated that there are about 50,000 refugees currently stranded in Greece. During the June 9 to July 30 period, 27,592 refugees and migrants went through the pre-registration process, with 57% of them being men and 43% women, plus thousands of children, both unaccompanied or with a parent. Greek Reporter
The issue of Syrian migrants in EU has rarely been in the news recently, so most people think that the problem is completely solved. Americans in particular have no clue what's going on in the world beyond Donald Trump's latest immigration plan or Hillary Clinton's latest e-mail explanation.
Nonetheless, there is a growing anger in Turkey that could lead to the collapse of the EU-Turkey migrant deal in September, as further negotiations proceed between the two parties. This anger was very evident several days ago, when US vice president Joseph Biden visited Ankara and was snubbed by obviously furious, stone-faced Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Much of Turkey's anger comes from a lack of support following the July 15 attempted coup combined with a series of horrific terror attacks perpetrated by both the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the so-called Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh). These coup threatened Turkey's entire government, and the terror attacks are much worse than anything that Europe has experienced, and yet from Turkey's point of view, EU officials have done nothing but criticize Turkey's attempts to recover from the coup attempt and terror attacks. Turkey also points out that the terror attacks are a threat to all of Europe, as well as Turkey.
With regard to the migrant deal itself, Turkey's view is that they've fulfilled their commitments, but the EU hasn't. In particular:
Turkey also points out that it has taken in at least 2.7 million Syrian refugees and houses 270,000 in 26 provisional refugee camps with food, health and education services as well as psychological support, vocational education and social activities, and has spent 7 billion euros meeting their needs.
For Europe, the main issue is human rights in Turkey. Even before the July 15 coup, Turkey had already shut down the country's main opposition media group. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media")
Since the coup, Erdogan has conducted a purge that can only be described as breathtaking, arresting thousands of soldiers and policy, and firing thousands more judges, teachers and clerics. In all, 58,000 people have been affected by the purge. ( "22-Jul-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West")
EU considers Erdogan's actions to be a major human rights violation, inconsistent with EU law, requiring remediation before the visa liberation can occur. However, even that reason doesn't excuse the 3 billion euros in aid that hasn't been paid.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu makes it clear that Turkey sees the agreement so far as completely one-sided:
"It cannot be that everything that is good for the E.U. is implemented by our side, but Turkey gets nothing in return.I don’t want to talk about the worst-case scenario. But it’s clear that we either apply all treaties at the same time or we put them all aside."
Negotiations to overcome these differences will begin in September. If no agreement is reached by October, then Turkey could gradually increase the flow of migrants to Greece, and could also refuse to implement other parts of the EU-Turkey deal, such as the "readmission agreement," which would permit Europe to send migrants not granted asylum back to Turkey. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Guardian (London) and Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Aug-16 World View -- Increasing anger in Turkey threatens the EU-Turkey migrant deal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Aug-2016)
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Turkey's PM declares 'all-out war' after new PKK truck bomb attack
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) took credit for a new deadly car bomb attack that occurred on Friday in Cizre in southeastern Turkey. A suicide bomber rammed a truck full of explosives into a checkpoint near a police station, killing at least 11 police officers and wounding 78 other people.
In hostilities with the PKK in the last year, more than 600 Turkish security personnel and thousands of PKK militants have been killed. Some 40,000 people have been killed since the conflict started in 1984.
Turkey is in a state of chaotic turmoil verging on instability. In the last week alone, Turkey suffered a huge terror attack at a wedding in Gaziantep, perpetrated by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), causing a major change in Turkey's policy. ( "22-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan announces a complete U-turn on Syria policy")
As we described yesterday, This U-turn has led to a major military invasion of northern Syria, around the town of Jarablus, attacking both ISIS and the Syrian Kurds.
So now, on Friday, there's a major new terror attack.
A furious prime minister Binali Yildirim declared "all-out war":
"No terrorist organization can enslave the Turkish Republic. We’ve declared all-out war against these terrorist groups. ...Like the Veteran [founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk] said during the War of Independence: 'Either independence or death.'"
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, "This attack, which comes at a time when Turkey is engaged in an intense struggle against terrorist organizations both within and outside its borders, only serves to increase our determination as a country and a nation."
If you look at the trend, you can see that these repeated terror attacks, combined with the failed July 15 coup attempt, are making the country increasingly belligerent. Friday's terror attack comes just after an invasion of northern Syria, and now Yildirim is declaring "all-out war." We may find out in the next few days what that means. Hurriyet (Ankara) and AP
After 50 days of violence, curfews and lockdowns, the unrest in India-controlled Kashmir shows no signs of letting up. More than 60 people have been killed and more than 5,000 injured in clashes with security police since the protests began on July 9. Many of the injured have been blinded, as security police have been shooting pellet guns at protesters, often into protesters' eyes.
Indian-controlled Kashmir has a mostly Muslim-majority population, and new large anti-government protest marches were scheduled to begin after Friday prayers. India took a number of steps to prevent violence from occurring:
Although the marches didn't take place, there were numerous protests and clashes across the whole region.
The violence and protests show no signs of abating, and it appears to be spiraling into full-scale violence.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the growth in violence appears more and more to be following a similar path to what happened in India's previous two generational crisis wars -- the 1857 Indian Rebellion and the 1947 Partition War. ( "9-Aug-16 World View -- Quetta Pakistan terror attack kills 75, while unrest grows in Kashmir")
The Pakistan reaction to the growing violence is to encourage the separatists and incite more violence. The India reaction to the growing violence is to deploy more forces and use bullet and pellet guns coupled with curfews and restrictions. If there is anything going on, in either Pakistan or India, that might be doing anything to ease the unrest in Kashmir, so that a major new war won't occur, I'm not aware of it. Tribune India and Al-Jazeera and Only Kashmir
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Aug-16 World View -- After 50 days of violence, unrest in India-controlled Kashmir is unabated thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Aug-2016)
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US turns on Syrian Kurds as they're attacked by Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Wednesday, Turkey began "Operation Euphrates Shield," and became the first Nato member to invade Syria since the beginning of the war that began in 2011. Turkish tanks, planes and special forces crossed the border into Syria. They were backed up by around 1,500 anti-Assad Syrian rebels called the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
We've been writing about Turkish plans in Syria for several days now, following the horrific terror attack, blamed on ISIS, of a wedding party in Gaziantep, in southeastern Turkey, triggering a furious demand for revenge. ( "22-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan announces a complete U-turn on Syria policy")
At first, the announced plan was for some kind of extended humanitarian intervention for the people of Jarablus, a town in Syria on the border with Turkey, who were under attack by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). It was assumed that the FSA would disgorge ISIS from Jarablus.
By the time the attack began on Wednesday, it became clear that it was a major invasion by Turkey's ground forces and air force, backed up by the FSA, and that Turkey's forces are going to stay. There are now multiple objectives:
The battle for Jarablus lasted 14 hours before the FSA announced on its Twitter account that they captured the city. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al-Jazeera
Up until last week, the American military's primary ally in Syria to fight ISIS has been the Syrian Kurds. But in a dramatic turnaround this week, the American administration has turned on the Syrian Kurds, and is effectively allying themselves with the Turkish military against the Syrian Kurds.
During US Vice President Joseph Biden's visit to Turkey on Wednesday that we reported on yesterday, Biden said:
"We have made it absolutely clear that they [pro-Kurdish forces] must go back across the [Euphrates] River. They cannot and will not, under no circumstances, get American support if they do not keep that commitment."
Having been a major US ally in Syria, the Kurds cannot now consider this to be anything but a major American betrayal of the Kurds.
As we mentioned above, one of the objectives of Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield is to block the expansion of the area controlled by the Syrian Kurds. The Turkish forces are evidently doing much more, in that they're attacking Kurdish positions. The army shelled Kurdish forces south of Jarablus on Thursday.
It was only a couple of weeks ago that the Syrian Kurds regained control of the city of Manbij from ISIS. ( "14-Aug-16 World View -- Wild celebrations in Manbij Syria, after major defeat for ISIS")
But on Thursday, Turkish forces shelled Kurdish positions in Manjib. So a significant victory for the Kurds is now turning into a defeat at the hands of ISIS. This is sure to have repercussions later. Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara) and AP
As long-time readers know, I like to reference Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber), which is written from Israel's point of view, because they have military and intelligence sources that provide valuable insights. However, it's not unusual for them to get things wrong.
So this week's edition has some startling claims: That Israel's military (IDF) is conducting an extensive military action against the ISIS affiliate in Egypt's northern Sinai, and that this has been going on since August 16.
The terror group is called Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
According to the Debka newsletter, the military action is closely coordinated with Egypt:
"For almost two days, F-15 and F-16 jets and a variety of drones pounded ISIS-Sinai bases and infrastructure in every part of the Egyptian peninsula in which the terrorists had struck camp.Apache assault helicopters chased and picked off the jihadists as they fled the air strikes. And Israeli marine commandos, who landed from the Aqaba Gulf port of Eilat and from the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal, raided the ISIS networks embedded in Sinai's western coastal towns. They found the jihadists getting set to descend on the towns and ports of southern Egypt, as well as Jordan and Israel, and also planning to seize a ship vessel sailing in the Gulf of Aqaba, especially passenger liners for taking hostages.
The vast Israeli offensive - on a scale the IDF had never before undertaken against the Islamic State - was conceived, organized and synchronized down to the last detail with the Egyptian army's general command. It represented the apex of the covert Egyptian-Israeli military-cum-intelligence cooperation ongoing since last year for crushing Islamic terrorists in their lairs."
According to the Debka report, Israel is engaged in fighting ISIS in at least eight foreign countries: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda and Chad.
This is a description of a big operation. On the one hand, I can't find any other report on it. On the other hand, it's big enough so that it's hard to believe that Debka got it so wrong.
Still, if Debka got it wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. Also, if Debka got it right, that wouldn't be the first time either, and this story could be a big one. Debka subscriber-only newsletter
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Aug-2016)
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US VP Biden snubbed by Turkey's angry president Erdogan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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US Vice President Joseph Biden met on Wednesday in Ankara with Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in an attempt to reverse the rapidly growing anti-American sentiments that have been surging in Turkey following the July 15 coup.
Sitting next to what some reports describe as a "stony faced Erdogan," Biden said:
"I want to make it unmistakably clear that the United States stands with our ally, Turkey. Our support is absolute and it is unwavering. ...The people of Turkey have no greater friend than the United States of America. As I said earlier, I want to offer my personal condolences and those of the president to the people of Turkey, for not only what they went through in the coup attempt, but shortly after that over 50 people murdered apparently from what we're told by ISIS a suicide bombing where 28 or 29 young people under the age of 18 were killed. The suffering of your people at the hands of ISIS at the hands of the PKK in the southeastern part of your country is beyond what any people should have to sustain."
Biden's entire visit was met with hostility, and was referred to by some Turkish media as a "waste of time." There was particular hostility between Erdogan and Biden over Turkey's desire to extradite Fethullah Gulen, living in exile in a resort in Saylorsburg Pennsylvania, whom Erdogan blames for the coup.
Biden explained that under the US system, Gulen cannot be extradited until Turkey produces evidence to an American court of Gulen's culpability. Erdogan responded that the US could at least arrest Gulen, so that he can't be interviewed by news media:
"According to the [1981] extradition treaty with US, we'd expect Gülen to be detained, however he still manages his terrorist organization freely."
Erdogan also criticized Biden's use of the phrase "Islamic State" to describe what I call "the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)", or just ISIS. Erdogan said that Biden should use the name "Daesh" and added:
"Islam is a religion of peace; it does not send children to blow themselves up as suicide bombers in the middle of crowds."
This is a criticism that a number of Muslim authorities have raised, saying that referring to this terror group as "Islamic State" makes as much sense as referring to a Christian terror group like the IRA as "Christian State." The BBC dealt with this debate about a year ago, and refers to it as "the so-called Islamic State." I use the name ISIS for the same reason. Bloomberg and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
When Thae Yong Ho, North Korea's deputy UK ambassador defected last week to the UK with his family, North Korea's media labeled Thae to be "human scum," and took the usual apoplectic turn:
"[Thae] should have received legal punishment for the crimes he committed, but he discarded the fatherland that raised him and even his own parents and brothers by fleeing, thinking nothing but just saving himself, showing himself to be human scum who lacks even an elementary level of loyalty and even tiny bits of conscience and morality that are required for human beings."
North Korea is following up by laying more land mines on the border between North and South Korea, in order to prevent defections of its own soldiers. Land mines and barbed wire already cover almost all of the border between North and South, but one location has been previously left untouched -- Panmunjom, the so-called "truce village," where North and Korea agreed to a ceasefire on July 27, 1953. And indeed, under the agreement reached in 1953, it's illegal for the North Koreans to lay land mines around Panmunjom.
But now that's changed according to South Korean officials:
"The South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities detected last week that the North Korean soldiers were planting multiple mines north of the Bridge of No Return near Panmunjom. It is the first time that they witnessed the North’s land mine placement in that area since the Armistice Agreement was signed in July 1953. ...Under the regulations governing the truce, planting land mines is forbidden in the areas near the Panmunjom. The guards are banned from carrying heavy weapons. The United Nations Command strongly protested to the North about the move."
The Bridge of No Return was used for prisoner exchanges. Once the prisoner crossed the bridge, he could never cross back.
It's believed that the land mines were laid to prevent North Korean soldiers from defecting to the South. Independent (London) and Yonhap News (Seoul) and Joongang Daily (Seoul)
The United Nations Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting on Wednesday and held closed consultations on the latest North Korean missile launch.
The ballistic missile that North Korea fired from a submarine on Wednesday traveled 500 km (310 miles), the longest distance achieved so far. With that capability, the missile could reach all of South Korea, parts of Japan, and some American military bases, though not North America. And because it can be launched from a submarine, it would not be possible to detect a planned attack before liftoff.
Pretty much everyone -- Japan, South Korea, the US -- issued the obligatory statement condemning the test, which was in violation of international law. China also criticized the North Korean test, but blamed it on the planned deployment by the US and South Korea of the THAAD anti-missile system. ( "10-Aug-16 World View -- China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system") Business Insider and AP and Global Times (Beijing)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Aug-16 World View -- North Korea lays land mines to prevent soldiers from defecting thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Aug-2016)
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Battles are taking place in two border towns in Syria: Hasaka and Jarablus
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Everyone involved in the fight in Syria is making use of a convenient semi-fiction: Nominally, each one is there to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The fight against ISIS is real, but it's also a cover for other military activities.
Central to many of sub-conflicts are the Kurds, particularly Syria's Kurdish militias (the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG).
What we're seeing is a large convergence of forces in two Turkish border towns in northern Syria: Hasaka and Jarablus. The fight against ISIS in Hasaka has already involved several fighting forces with different objectives:
"We’re going to defend our forces where they are. We advise them [the Syrians] to steer clear of where we’re operating.We're going to continue to provide support and provide defensive support in particular to forces on the ground engaged in the [ISIS] fight, and particularly those forces that are partnered up with the coalition forces."
The Pentagon spokesman said this is "not a no-fly zone" in northern Syria, but "You can label it what you want."
The fighting between the YPG forces and the al-Assad forces is the most violent since the war began in 2011. Syria's deployment of warplanes against the Kurds was also a first, as was the American response with its own warplanes.
The YPG now controls large regions of northern Syria, including an uninterrupted 400 km (250 mile) stretch of the Syrian-Turkish border from the eastern frontier with Iraq to the Euphrates river, and a pocket of territory in northwestern Syria.
It is no secret that the Kurds would like to take control of the region in between those two, and create an independent state called Rojava. This is a nightmare scenario for both Turkey and the al-Assad regime. Daily Beast and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and The Hill
Turkey is assembling a force of 1,500 Syrian rebel fighters in the town of Gaziantep, preparing them to cross the border and launch an attack on ISIS in the strategic Syrian town of Jarablus.
The Kurdish militias, the YPG, are also making preparations for a final assault on ISIS around the same town, Jarablus.
Jarablus is a small town, but its importance lies in the fact that it lies right on the border with Turkey, and ISIS has been using it as a corridor to import supplies and people from Turkey. So it's important to drive ISIS out of Jarablus in order cripple ISIS's supply lines.
The YPG, backed by American warplanes, could take control of Jarablus from ISIS, but this would give the Kurds control of another significant region in northern Syria along the border with Turkey, and this is panicking Turkey.
Therefore, Turkey is assembling the 1,500 Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters in Gaziantep to try to take control of Jarablus before the Kurds do. So that should be quite a battle.
According to an FSA spokesman, "The plan is to take Jarablus and expand south ... so as to abort any attempt by the Kurds to move north ... and so that Kurds don't take more villages."
There's another subtext to this. Recall that there was a "barbaric" terror attack on a wedding ceremony over the weekend, killing many dozens of people including many children. The attack was attributed to ISIS, and it's triggered a furious response from Turkey. ( "22-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan announces a complete U-turn on Syria policy")
The wedding terror attack occurred in Gaziantep, which is the same town in which Turkey is assembling the 1,500 FSA fighters. It's possible that ISIS selected that town for the attack exactly because the FSA fighters were being assembled there.
Whatever happens in Jarablus, ISIS is sure to retaliate. AP and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey prepares an army of 1,500 Syrian rebels to fight ISIS and Kurds in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Aug-2016)
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In an embarrassing turnaround, Russia removes its bombers from Iran
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A jihadist, Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi, pleaded guilty on Monday to the crime of "cultural genocide" in the International Criminal Court for destroying religious monuments in the ancient city of Timbuktu in Mali.
The desecration of Timbuktu by al-Qaeda was a big story in 2012.
Founded between the 5th and 11th centuries by Tuareg desert nomads, Timbuktu became a meeting point between north, south and west Africa and a melting pot of black Africans, Berber, Arab and Tuareg desert nomads. The trade of gold, salt, ivory and books made it the richest region in west Africa and it attracted scholars, engineers and architects from around Africa, growing into a major center of Islamic culture by the 14th century. Timbuktu is home to nearly 100,000 ancient manuscripts, some dating to the 12th century, preserved in family homes and private libraries under the care of religious scholars.
In 2012, the al-Qaeda linked terror group, Ansar Dine (Defenders of Faith), were using shovels, hoes and chisels to destroy Sufi Muslim shrines and mosques that were built centuries ago. It was feared that Ansar Dine would also destroy the 100,000 ancient manuscripts. As a result, many citizens of Timbuktu carefully hid any manuscripts they had in their possession. Many were also sent to Bamako, Mali's capital city, where they would be safe from Ansar Dine.
According to the charges brought by the ICC against Ahmad Al Faqi Al Mahdi:
"It is alleged that, until September 2012, he was the head of the "Hisbah" (body set up to uphold public morals and prevent vice), set up in April 2012. He was also associated with the work of the Islamic Court of Timbuktu and participated in executing its decisions. It is alleged that he was involved in the destruction of the buildings mentioned in the charge."
On Monday, al-Mahdi pleaded guilty to the crimes he was charged with, and said the following at his trial:
"It is also my hope that the years I will spend in prison will be source to purge the evil spirit that took me and I will keep my hopes high that the people will be able to forgive me.I would like to give a piece of advice to the Muslims in the world not to get involved in the kind of acts that I did because it will give no good to humanity."
Al-Mahdi could get a sentence of up to 30 years, but it's expected that he'll be sentenced to less because he confessed to the crimes.
The ICC considers this to be a historic trial because it was the first time that a jihadist was charged by the ICC, and it's the first time that the principal charge was destruction of cultural property. CNN and Swiss Info and ICC Case Information Sheet (PDF)
Last week we reported that Russia's bombers would be traveling from the Hamadan airbase in Iran, across Iraq airspace for bombing raids into Syria. This was considered an embarrassment to the US because US military had not been notified in advance, and had to approve travel through Iraq's airspace. ( "17-Aug-16 World View -- Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia")
Russia bragged that they would be permitted to use Iran's airbase "as long as required." Well, "as long as required" apparently ended on Monday, when use of the airbase came to an abrupt halt because it was no longer required, according to Russia's Defense Ministry spokesman:
"Russian military aircraft that took part in the operation of conducting air strikes from Iran's Hamadan air base on terrorist targets in Syria have successfully completed all tasks.Further use of the Hamadan air base in the Islamic Republic of Iran by the Russian Aerospace Forces will be carried out on the basis of mutual agreements to fight terrorism and depending on the prevailing circumstances in Syria."
Iran’s Defense Minister Gen. Hossein Dehghan blamed Russia for bragging, saying that it was "a kind of show off and ungentlemanly." He said in an interview:
"Naturally the Russians want to show that they are a superpower and an influential country and are present in all regional and global affairs. ... Of course grandstanding and incivility were behind the announcement."
Allowing Russia to use the airbase was controversial within Iran's government. Hossein Ruyvaran, an Iranian political analyst who teaches at the University of Tehran, was quoted as saying:
"The chief issue being discussed comes down to this: does allowing the Russian Aerospace forces use the capabilities of this airbase violate the Article 14b of the Iranian Constitution or not? Because according to this article, any form of leasing an airfield to a foreign power to be used as an airbase – even for a peacekeeping mission – is forbidden."
This ties into some analysis that I've done in the past regarding whether Iran would use a nuclear weapon on Israel. If you look at Iran's history in the last century, including its two generational crisis wars, the Constitutional Revolution of the 1900s decade and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, combined with statements that they've made, you see that they take pride in never attacking anyone else, except in self-defense. Thus, I consider it almost impossible for Iran to preemptively use a nuclear weapon on Israel, unless Israel attacked first.
That doesn't make Iran the "good guy." Quite the contrary. Iran is perfectly happy to do things like sponsoring terrorist acts around the world through its puppet terrorist group Hezbollah, or supplying arms to Palestinians for use against Israel, or fighting a proxy war in Yemen, or supplying weapons and fighters to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for use in his genocidal extermination campaign on Sunnis, making them war criminals. But the Iranian leaders still think that they're wonderful people rather than war criminals because they don't invade anyone.
So I see this Russian use of Iran's Hamadan airbase as crossing a red line that challenges this "good guy" self-image, at least temporarily. There will now be a debate in Iran's government that can go either way. It's possible that Russia may again be permitted to use Iran's airbase, but next time it will be done a lot more quietly. Russia Today (21-Aug) and AEI Iran Tracker and AP
In a move that could once again change the direction of the war in Syria, Turkey is beginning to fully enter the war in Syria. On Monday, Turkey's military fired artillery shells across the border into Syria, striking ISIS targets in one region, and striking Kurdish militia targets in another region.
In addition, Turkey is preparing hundreds of Ankara-backed rebels for an offensive against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The Kurdish militias are also conducting an offensive against the same ISIS targets, opening the possibility of a collision.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said:
"Daesh [ISIS] should be completely cleansed from our borders and we are ready to do what it takes for that."
As we wrote yesterday, a major terrorist attack Sunday in Turkey has led to an announcement by the government of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to do a complete U-turn on its Syria policy, allowing Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to remain in power for six months after the peace agreement has been signed. This change in policy was dictated by the increasing success by the Syrian Kurds, whom Erdogan has said are terrorists linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In the past, Turkey has been very cautious about directly entering the war in Syria. In particular, Erdogan wanted international agreement to implement a "no-fly zone" or "buffer zone" in northern Syria along Turkey's border, to provide a space for refugee camps for Syrian cities fleeing from the violence. In retrospect, this kind of no-fly zone might have prevented or lessened the surge of refugees traveling through Turkey into Europe. Erdogan never implemented a buffer zone because it was opposed by the United States.
But now, the policy "to do what it takes" military seems to be yet another aspect of Turkey's complete U-turn in Syria policy. If this is the start of a major Turkish offensive in Syria, the war could change dramatically. Reuters/AFP and AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Aug-2016)
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Turkey's downward spiral continues with massive wedding terror attack
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is being blamed for a "barbaric" terror attack on Sunday on a wedding ceremony in Gaziantep, in southeastern Turkey, killing 51 people and injuring 69 more. Gaziantep is a large Kurdish community just across the border from Aleppo in Syria
The perpetrator was a suicide bomber aged between 12 and 14. The suicide bomber reportedly joined the crowd disguising himself as a guest before blowing himself up.
Turkey appears to be in a downward spiral of instability following a year of dramatic events, including multiple terror attacks by ISIS, multiple terror attacks by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and a failed coup attempt on July 15 that Turkey. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is blaming the coup attempt on the Fetullahist Terror Organization (FETO), led by Fethullah Gulen, a 76-year-old Turkish Muslim cleric, living in self-imposed exile in America since splitting with Erdogan in 1999.
According to Erdogan, following Sunday's terror attack:
"There are strong indications that the attack was carried out by ISIL. A suicide bomber aged between 12 and 14 blew himself up. We know that ISIL has been trying to gain ground in Gaziantep for a while now. ...[The] place where terror comes from doesn’t make any difference for us. ...
There is no difference between the PKK, the FETO or Daesh [ISIS]. All of them are terrorists. ...
Those who cannot defeat Turkey try to provoke people by abusing ethnic and sectarian sensitiveness, but they will not prevail."
Erdogan said the aim of such attacks was to sow division between different groups in Turkey such as Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens.
American and European officials, who had previously been accused of showing more sympathy for Turkey's attackers than for Turkey, rushed to offer condolences. US Secretary of State John Kerry tweeted, "Strongly condemn the barbaric terrorist attack in #Gaziantep. The US stands squarely with our ally #Turkey against the scourge of terrorism." Hurriyet (Ankara) and BBC and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
As we reported last week, analysts are pointing out that if Turkey's July 15 attempted coup had been successful, then America might have lost control of the 50 or so B61 tactical nuclear weapons that are being stored at Incirlik. ( "16-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey threatens EU migrant deal, saying EU is humiliating Turkey, not helping")
Even now, relations between Turkey and America are deteriorating so rapidly, that concerns are increasing that Turkey's government might change its policy and take control of the weapons, or that they might be the target of a terrorist attack. Debka is reporting that America is rejecting a demand from Turkey to take control of the weapons.
The US does not confirm that there are nuclear weapons stored anywhere in Europe, but there are now several unconfirmed reports that the US military is secretly moving the nuclear weapons to bases in Romania.
Russia and Romania are both Eastern Orthodox Christian countries, and historically fought bloody wars against the Muslim Ottoman Empire (Turkey) in World War I and previous wars. So moving the nuclear weapons from Turkey to Romania carries a great deal of symbolic significance to both countries.
On the other hand, Romania is not on such good terms with Russia either. In World War II, Romania initially was forced to ally with Nazi Germany, but in 1944 was forced to switch sides and ally with the Soviet Union. The Soviets then brutally occupied Romania from 1944 to 1958. So even though Romania and Russia are both Eastern Orthodox Christian countries, there is a great deal of mutual hostility.
The United States has deployed in Romania an $800 million missile shield that was switched on in May. The nominal purpose of the missile shield is protection from Iran, but Russia believes that its existence makes Russia more vulnerable to attack from Nato.
Stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Romania, along with the missile shield, is likely to infuriate Russia and raise security concerns. There may be some kind of retaliation.
The reports of moving the nuclear weapons have never been confirmed, and so there have been no public statements from Turkey, but it's likely that Turkey will see moving the nuclear weapons to the military base of its history enemy (Romania) as one more humiliation that the West is inflicting on Turkey.
Romania has strongly denied that any nuclear weapons are being moved there from Turkey. EurActiv and Balkan Insight and Debka
Turkey has announced a major change in its policy towards Syria. In the past, Turkey has been insistent that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad must go as part of any peace settlement. In the new policy, al-Assad may remain in power for six months after the peace agreement has been signed.
The change is being driven by increasing power of the Kurds. From the point of view of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Syrian Kurds are terrorists, and are the Syrian branch of the PKK terrorists. However, the United States has been using the Syrian Kurds as a fighting force against ISIS, and the Kurds have been gaining control of regions of northern Syria.
As we've written in the past, the nightmare scenario for Turkey is that the Kurds take control of various regions in northern Syria and link them together to form a large area in northern Syria along the border with Turkey. The Kurds could then claim a Kurdish state in Syria stretching from the Mediterranean to Iraq, along Turkey's border
This is also a nightmare scenario for the al-Assad regime, which would then lose control of the entire northern Syria. It's also a nightmare scenario for Iran, because Iran is fighting on the side of al-Assad in Syria, and because Iran has a historic enmity with the Kurds in Iraq and southeastern Turkey.
This is creating a temporary three-way marriage of convenience involving Turkey, Iran, and the al-Assad regime.
Turkey's new alliance with al-Assad is a major turn-about, something that would have been unthinkable even just a few months ago.
In describing the new policy to reporters, Turkey's prime minister Binali Yildirim said the following:
"Finding a solution is the most important thing for us. It is important that no more people die. If we are going to save those people, to heel the bleeding wound, the rest are [irrelevant] details. All the rest could be talked through and a solution could be found. As I said, al-Assad cannot be a uniting figure in Syria in the long run, it is just not possible. The main countries involved - the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and others - should come together and Turkey should make more effort on that."
These things always sound so good when they come out of the mouths of politicians, don't they. Then if you take a nap for three months, when you wake up and see what's happened, you realize that everything they said was total nonsense.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this change of policy is strongly counter-trend, and so is meaningless. There will never be a "peace deal" for Turkey, because al-Assad will never agree to "peace" as long as there are any Sunnis left in Syria to exterminate. Also, both al-Assad's Shia/Alawites and Iran's Shias are historic enemies of Turkey, and so the marriage of convenience will end up in divorce after the first major bump in the road.
The entire Mideast is headed for a major war involving the whole region, along Israeli-Arab fault line, the Sunni-Shia sectarian fault line, and various ethnic fault lines. When the war ends, there will be a great international peace conference attended by politicians from all the major nations, and they'll decide all the new boundaries. At that point, in the distant future, the Kurds may or may not get their Kurdish state. Hurriyet (Ankara) and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan announces a complete U-turn on Syria policy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Aug-2016)
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Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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An estimated 100,000 Yemenis attended a rally in Sanaa, Yemen's capital city, on Saturday. The rally had been planned for weeks, so people had come from many regions outside of Sanaa.
The purpose of the rally was to protest resumed air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition following the collapse of peace talks early in August, and to support a new "governing council" set up by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis that had overthrown the Saudi-backed government in a coup in 2014. Shortly after that, a Saudi Arabia-led coalition began airstrikes with the intention of restoring the internationally recognized government.
Although not all the protesters on Saturday were pro-Houthi, they were all in favor of seeing the airstrikes end, supported the Houthi's governing council as the way to do that.
There had been a three-month ceasefire while peace talks in Kuwait had proceeded with no progress. The Saudis wanted to restore the status quo ante with the pro-Saudi government, while the Houthis wanted to retain control of the government following their successful coup. Once the peace talks collapsed three weeks ago, the Saudi-led coalition resumed airstrikes.
Saturday's huge rally was interrupted by Saudi warplanes passing overhead and conducting bombing raids. Early stories on the BBC reported that the Saudi warplanes had bombed the rally, as described by a correspondent in Sanaa:
"Suddenly the Saudi jets started circling on top of us, and as always, we thought they would just fly by, just trying to scare the crowd.Suddenly they started bombing and the crowd started running. I basically bolted out of the area. People started screaming... Because everybody's very well armed, they started shooting their AK-47s and their machine guns into the sky."
However, later reports indicated that the warplanes had attacked targets on a nearby mountain. BBC and France24
The Houthis are a branch of Shia Islam that took hold in southern Arabia (currently Yemen) in the century following the death of the prophet Mohammed. In the decades following Mohammed's death, there were conflicts as to who would succeed Mohammed as caliph of Islam. One group insisted that any new caliph must be a direct descendant of Mohammed himself, and they particularly selected Mohammed's grandson, Husayn ibn Ali (626-680), often referred to as just Ali. The partisans of Ali became known as Shia or Shiites.
Ali was killed in the seminal Battle of Karbala in a generational crisis war that climaxed in 680, splitting the Muslim community, and throwing the question of succession into chaos. In the following decades, the group that won the war (the Umayyads) became known as the Sunnis, and they selected caliphs by a variety of means, including elections, inheritance, and wars.
The Shias formed a completely separate branch of succession, referring to their leaders as Imams. They continued to insist that any imam must be a direct descendant of Mohammed, and must therefore be a direct descendant of Husayn ibn Ali. As it turned out, Ali had nine descendants, with the last one, the 12th imam, disappearing in 873.
Today, Shia Muslims are still divided over which of these imams was going to return as the messiah to avenge injustices to the Shia. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete enlightenment.
One Shia sect broke off in 740 and were known as the Zaydis, or "Fivers," because of their allegiance to the fifth imam. These are the Houthis today.
Another Shia sect are called "Seveners," because of their allegiance to the seventh imam.
Most Shias today are "Twelvers," because of their allegiance to the 12th imam, also called "The Hidden Imam," who disappeared in 873, as described above. According to the Twelver belief, he did not die, but disappeared and became "hidden," and will reappear at the appropriate time. Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, the leader of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, apparently claimed that he was the 13th imam, the Allah-appointed successor to Ali and to Mohammed himself. (From November 2009: "Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue")
Saudi Arabia has been under increasing international pressure to end the airstrikes in Yemen, and simply let the Houthis take over. Since the Houthis are supported by their hated enemy Iran, that kind of solution would be a major regional victory for Iran, and I would be very surprised to see anything like that happen.
The aid group Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors without Borders) on Friday announced that they were pulling their staff out of six hospitals in northern Yemen, giving as a reason that their staff were not safe from the Saudis' "indiscriminate bombings," which sometimes struck the hospitals in which MSF were working.
According to MSF:
"Over the last eight months, MSF has met with high-ranking Saudi-led coalition officials on two occasions in Riyadh [Saudi Arabia's capital city] to secure humanitarian and medical assistance for Yemenis, as well as to seek assurances that attacks on hospitals would end. ...Aerial bombings have, however, continued, despite the fact that MSF has systematically shared the GPS coordinates of hospitals in which we work with the parties involved in the conflict. Coalition officials repeatedly state that they [honor] international humanitarian law, yet this attack shows a failure to control the use of force and to avoid attacks on hospitals full of patients. MSF is neither satisfied nor reassured by the Saudi-led coalition's statement that this [August 15] attack was a mistake."
International rights groups have also criticized the United States for providing support to the Saudis in the Yemen war. According to an analyst interviewed on Saturday on the BBC, the US became part of the Saudi coalition in the hope of working with the Saudis to guarantee that Yemeni civilians would be protected, but that has been unsuccessful.
U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet spokesman Lieutenant Ian McConnaughey on Saturday announced that the US military has been slashing the number of intelligence advisers directly supporting the Saudi-led coalition's air war in Yemen, because of concerns over civilian casualties. The number of advisers has gone from 45 to "less than five." McConnaughey said that the number of advisers could be increased again, "if the need arises." Saudi Gazette and CNN and AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Aug-16 World View -- US cuts military advisers to Saudis in Yemen as peace talks collapse thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Aug-2016)
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Zimbabwe police violently disperse protests over new 'bond note' currency
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As protesters on Wednesday in Harare, Zimbabwe's capital city, started marching to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe to submit a petition over worsening cash shortages, heavily armed anti-riot police pounced on them, resulting in the protestors running in different directions. Some of the angry demonstrators pelted police officers with stones resulting police firing teargas and using water cannons to disperse them.
This is just the latest in widespread protests against Zimbabwe's 92 year old president Robert Mugabe, whose decades-long reign has destroyed what was one of the strongest economies in Africa. ( "23-Jul-16 World View -- Christian pastor's '#ThisFlag' movement threatens Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe")
As recently as the 1999, Zimbabwe was a breadbasket of Africa, exporting up to 500,000 tonnes (metric tons) of surplus food. By 2003, Zimbabwe was so starved that it had to receive 500,000 tonnes in food aid from the U.N.'s World Food Program.
What happened during those three years was a Marxist socialist "land reform" program by Robert Mugabe that confiscated 4,500 white-owned commercial farms and redistributed the property to his cronies from his own Shona tribe. Anyone from the hated Ndebele tribe who objected was jailed, tortured or killed.
Unfortunately, Mugabe's cronies didn't know anything about farming. Harvests of food staples plummeted by as much as 90%, livestock herds dwindled and production of the main cash crop, tobacco, slumped badly. The results were dramatic, and show how it's possible for one dictatorial leader to destroy a country single-handedly. A formerly well-fed country had rampant 80% poverty, and the inflation rate went from 700% to 1000% to 10000% to 150000% and continued rising 500 billion percent.
In 2009, Zimbabwe switched to a dual-currency economy, accepting the US dollar as valid currency. At that point, the Zimbabwe dollar collapsed completely, and millions of citizens had their saving destroyed.
But instead of ending the destructive land reform policies, Mugabe added on a new one: Indigenization.
Indigenization required all Zimbabwe businesses to be majority owned by Zimbabweans, again mostly cronies from Mugabe's Shona tribe. Zimbabwe continues to shut down businesses, including foreign banks, that do not comply with the indigenization requirements. Just as Mugabe's "land reforms" destroyed the farm infrastructure, Mugabe's indigenization law is destroying the entire business infrastructure.
But since Mugabe no longer has the power to print money, he's run out of cash and is unable to pay salaries of public employees. To solve this problem, Mugabe is introducing a brand-new Zimbabwean currency, the "bond note." The bond note is expected to be introduced in October, and one bond note is supposed to be the equivalent of one US dollar.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has claimed that the new bond notes will be perfectly safe because they'll only be used for limited purposes, and no one will be forced to use them. Central Bank Governor Dr John Mangudya said:
"The intrinsic value of the export bonus or incentive scheme is to attract and enhance exports by Zimbabweans so that at the end of the day there is enough foreign currency in this country,” said Dr Mangudya.“If you are getting a $400 salary, you will still get $400 in United States dollars, bond notes, rand or euros. If you don’t want them then you use plastic money. We are not forcing anybody to use bond notes."
This triggered the protests and demonstrations because most people assume that Mugabe is lying. Some people are claiming that the bond notes will be as worthless as toilet paper.
In fact, Mangudya has already been forced to retract those claims, as he had to admit that public employees are going to be partially paid in bond notes. However, he added that the bond notes will still be perfectly valid, because they'll be backed by a $200 million loan from the African Export-Import Bank.
But an opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) official claimed last week that the $200 million loan will not last long, since the authorities are planning to print as much as $2.5 billion in bond notes, potentially triggering a new round of hyperinflation. The Herald (Harare) and VOA and News24Wire (Cape Town)
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Zimbabwe's 92-year-old leader Robert Mugabe, who destroyed much of the country's agricultural capacity with a "land reform" program that split up the farms and handed them to his cronies, is now launching a "command agriculture" program similar to the agricultural collectivization programs that failed so disastrously in Josef Stalin's Soviet Union and Mao Zedong's China, causing tens of millions of deaths.
The new "command agriculture" program will cost $500 million to start, to purchase seeds, fertilizer, tractors and irrigation systems. Each participating farmer will be given the seeds, fertilizer and equipment for free. The farmers will work under strict supervision of the government. Each farm will be required to produce five tonnes (metric tons) of maize for each hectare of farmland.
The farmer will be permitted to keep for himself all the maize he produces that exceeds five tonnes (metric tons) per hectare. There has been no announcement of what happens to the farmer if his yield is less than five tonnes per hectare, though we know that in the case of the Soviet and Chinese command agriculture programs, farmers who didn't produce were starved to death or were executed.
Zimbabwe's spring planting season begins in November (in the southern hemisphere), and so this program is supposed to begin at that time. At five tonnes per hectare, the government expects to produce two million tonnes of maize on 400,000 hectares of land, which would exceed the annual demand of 1.5 million tonnes.
According to Ryan Truscott, the Zimbabwe correspondent speaking on Radio France Internationale (my transcription):
"Farming union officials say that that figure of five tonnes per hectare is far too ambitious. In a very few cases you can get five tonnes, or even as much as ten tonnes per hectare, but the average is just over half a tonne per hectare.So there's a very real possibility that the farmers won't reach the five tonne targets, and won't be left with anything for themselves. What happens in that scenario, for now we don't know."
Another issue is the question of where the $500 million is coming from to fund this program. As we wrote in July, Zimbabwe currently owes $10 billion to the IMF, World Bank and the African Development Bank, with $1.86 billion in debt repayments in arrears, and is begging for more investment money. ( "1-Jul-16 World View -- Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction")
The government says that's all under control. Since the public banks are no longer available for borrowing more money, Zimbabwe will borrow from private banks, according to Zimbabwe's vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa, who says that the money will be used to import farming equipment from Brazil, Belarus, Russia and India.
The private banks have not been named, but according to Mnangagwa:
"The program is not being run on the budget (so) we are raising funds from the private sector and we are quite advanced at securing these funds. This is a cost recovery program, nothing is going to be given for free.We cannot put a figure now. We are well advanced in negotiating such facilities and many private companies are coming forward to make offers because it is guaranteed that they will have a return from the loans that they may advance."
If, in fact, Zimbabwe is unable to borrow the money from private banks, then they may attempt to pay for the program with their new "bond notes," and that will cause real problems. Zimbabwe Mail and The Herald (Harare) and The Zimbabwean
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Aug-16 World View -- Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Aug-2016)
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Stephen K. Bannon is named chairman of Donald Trump's campaign
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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I've been listening all day to the idiotic comments on the appointment of Steve Bannon as Trump's campaign manager. They describe Bannon as a wild bomb thrower running the racist Breitbart news site.
This is absolutely hilarious. Former Breitbart editor Peter Schweizer originally asked me in 2010 to start cross-posting my World View articles on the Breitbart news site, and later Bannon took over. I know Bannon pretty well, as he's been a big supporter of cross-posting my daily columns on the Breitbart news site, even though I've been highly critical of the rise of xenophobia and nationalism in countries around the world in this generational Crisis era, including Trump's remarks about Mexicans and Muslims. So I know for a fact that Bannon is no bomb thrower, and he's no racist, and for that matter, the Breitbart news site is not racist.
I worked pretty intensely with Bannon when I was being filmed for the movie "Generation Zero." Bannon is one of the few people in the media who have studied what I've written and who understand generational theory and Generational Dynamics. Bannon is also one of the very few people in the media who actually know a great deal about what's going on in the world, a lot more than most politicians do, and certainly a lot more than the media airheads who are writing about him. Bannon is a very bright guy and is someone that Trump needs.
In other words, the airheads in the media know how to spell Bannon's name, but everything else they've been saying has been pretty idiotic. Real Clear Politics
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The UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura made probably the strongest condemnations he's ever made about the situation in Syria. Without mentioning Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, he excoriated al-Assad's policies of wanton massacres of innocent civilians.
The context was a regular meeting of the international humanitarian taskforce co-chaired by Russia and the United States. De Mistura cut the meeting short after 8 minutes, saying that it made "no sense" to continue, because of the fighting in Syria.
"Today we had a very short meeting of the Humanitarian Task Force. It lasted not more than 8 minutes. I decided to use my privilege as Chair to declare that there was no sense in have a humanitarian meeting today unless we got some action on the humanitarian side in Syria.Tomorrow is the World Humanitarian Day and in Syria what we are hearing and seeing is only fighting, offensives, counter-offensives, rockets, barrel bombs, mortars, hellfire cannons, napalm, chlorine, snipers, air strikes, suicide bombers.
Not one single convoy has so far reached any of the humanitarian besieged areas this month, not one single convoy, and why? Because one thing, fighting."
All of this happened in the context of a heartbreaking video of Omran Daqneesh, a young boy who was pulled out of the rubble and woke up in an ambulance, dazed and covered with mud and blood, a big gash on his face, looking around confused, wondering how he got there. The video has gone viral, and the picture above is a screen shot from the video. Ironically, Omran is one of the "lucky" little boys, because he survived.
De Mistura demanded an agreement for a 48-hour humanitarian pause in the fighting. Later in the day Russia agreed, apparently because of all the international pressure generated by the video of the young boy. But whether Bashar al-Assad will agree is far from clear, and even if does agree, his regime has repeatedly violated previous ceasefires.
It's worthwhile to stop and review how we got here. When peaceful anti-government protests began in Syria early in 2011, al-Assad responded with a campaign of torture, massacres and genocide targeted at all Sunni Muslims in Syria, and that genocidal campaign has continued to this day, with full support of Orthodox Christian Russia and Shia Muslim Iran.
The video posted today was not the first one. Shortly after al-Assad started bombing Sunni civilians, a video surfaced of one of al-Assad's atrocities. ( "1-Jun-2011 News -- Mutilated teenage boy becomes symbol for Syria's revolution")
The 2011 video showed a 13-year-old boy, Hamza al-Khatib, who was beaten and tortured by al-Assad's security forces for over a month, before the boy's swollen and mutilated body was dumped. At that time, people were hoping that the video would shame al-Assad so much that he would stop his genocidal campaign, but of course that never was going to happen. And Hamza al-Khatib was soon forgotten.
In 2014, a military photographer who defected from al-Assad revealed 55,000 photos of how al-Assad used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale. ( "22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria").
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Many people hoped that these photos would bring about some changes, and there was even a Congressional investigation. But those photos have also been long forgotten.
The al-Assad regime has used Sarin gas on its own population, with impunity. The regime has continued to use chemical weapons. Regime helicopters drop huge barrel bombs onto civilian neighborhoods. The barrel bombs may contain explosives, screws, nails and other shrapnel, plus canisters of chlorine and ammonia. When chlorine is inhaled, it reacts with the moisture in the lungs, turning into hydrochloric acid that literally burns the target to death from the inside out.
This is what the Orthodox Christian Vladimir Putin and the Shia Muslim Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei are supporting, and are responsible for. Do not let anyone tell you that there is anything "holy" about either of these men. They both deserve to go to the deepest ring of Hell, along with al-Assad himself.
It's almost unbelievable how much destruction al-Assad has caused. Thanks to al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei, there are about 50,000 jihadist fighters from 86 countries that have come to Syria, first to join the rebels fighting al-Assad, then to join the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS), and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Al-Assad has created the al-Nusra front and ISIS. He's created millions of refugees that have flooded into neighboring countries, and over a million have poured into Europe.
Al-Assad has caused destruction and triggered wars that will last for decades. And America is more and more closely allying itself with Russia and Iran, and therefore to al-Assad. America is also giving way to Russia as the principal power in the Mideast. ( "17-Aug-16 World View -- Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia")
Long-time readers are well aware that I've been saying for ten years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran and Russia would become our allies. In a way, it's similar to how we were allied with Soviet Union genocidal dictator Josef Stalin after he'd massacred, starved and tortured tens of millions of people. It's sickening to me and to many others to see the Generational Dynamics prediction come true in this way, but that's the way the world works. United Nations News and VOA and Telegraph
As I like to point out, almost every day something new happens that a few years ago you would have to have been crazy to believe would ever happen. Whether it's in America, Europe, Africa, the Mideast or Asia, things that could never happen are happening.
Many of those impossible things have occurred in Syria, and many are related to the laughable peace talks, which have only made things easier for al-Assad and his extermination campaign.
Kofi Annan, the virulently anti-American former Secretary-General of the United Nations from Ghana, was the first UN envoy on Syria. Annan formulated a farcical six-point 'peace plan' which said absolutely nothing, but which al-Assad used as a cover to continue exterminating innocent Sunni women and children with impunity.
After Kofi Annan was repeatedly humiliated by Bashar al-Assad, the UN appointed a new Syria peace envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, to replace Kofi Annan. Brahimi wasn't as much of an idiot as Annan was, but he still resigned in disgust in May 2014, after it became clear that al-Assad really had no desire to do anything but exterminate Sunni civilians.
So the next UN envoy was and is Staffan de Mistura, and I really can't figure him out. Putin and al-Assad have repeatedly made a fool out of de Mistura and made him look like an idiot, and yet he clings on as UN envoy and makes moronic statements like, "This will not be tolerated." Perhaps the current crisis will be his breaking point.
At any rate, this has been going on for over five years, with no end in sight. It looks more and more that the Syrian war will not end until the entire Mideast is engulfed in war.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Aug-16 World View -- Furious UN envoy Staffan de Mistura excoriates Syria's Bashar al-Assad thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Aug-2016)
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Fears grow that the EU-Turkey migrant deal will collapse
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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After the EU-Turkey migrant deal was agreed in March, the number of migrants traveling from Turkey to Greece fell almost to zero.
However, the number of migrants has surged since the July 15, when there was an attempted government coup in Turkey. It's now running close to 100 per day, which is still far smaller than the average of 2500 per day last year in August.
Since the start of 2016, more than 160,000 migrants have illegally traveled from Turkey to Greece. The figure was more than one million in all of 2015.
So the number is still sharply lower than it was prior to the EU-Turkey deal, the refugee situation is far from resolved.
A total of over 275,000 migrants have reached Europe this year, including 101,000 arriving in Italy from North Africa.
Supposedly the "Balkan route" that migrants used to travel from Greece to Germany was closed in March, but officials from Serbia are reporting that an average of 300 new arrivals are entering the country illegally every day. This number exceeds the 100 migrants per day arriving in Greece from Turkey, so the other 200 must be coming from refugee camps. BBC and B92 (Belgrade)
Although the number of migrants arriving in Greece from Turkey is far smaller than the number last year, but for the 100 or so per day who do make the trip, conditions are severely worsening, as are conditions for the tens of thousands who are still living in Greek refugee camps.
Like last year, the migrants who arrive in Greece first arrive in one of the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea -- Lesvos, Chios and Samos. But last year, Greece ran a ferry to carry the migrants from the islands to Athens, from where the migrants continued their journey north. This year, there's no ferry and the Balkan Route is close, so there's no way to travel north.
The result is that migrants are trapped in overcrowded refugee camps on the islands, and are unable to leave. According to Save the Children, the situation is almost "back to square one," from before the EU-Turkey migrant deal:
"As the number of arrivals creeps up again, we're starting to see scenes reminiscent of last summer. Except this time, most asylum seekers are unable to continue their journeys, and are trapped on the islands, in overcrowded facilities, and under the blazing sun.Mothers with small babies are being forced to sleep on the ground in make-shift tents, children and breastfeeding women are suffering from dehydration due to water shortages in some camps, and tensions are increasing as basic services, such as toilets and showers, are stretched.
Families who have fled violence and death in their homeland continue to live in fear and do not feel safe. They have told Save the Children staff that they are too scared to let their children out of their sight due to the frequent protests and a lack of security in the camps."
There are similar problems with migrants trapped in the refugee camp called "The Jungle" in Calais France. There are some 5,000 refugees trapped there, including hundreds of children.
The public has largely lost interest in the migrant problem since the EU-Turkey deal, and there's little public concern for what's going on in the refugee camps in Greece, France, and elsewhere. But public opinion is fickle, and any day there could be something that calls attention to the problem. Daily Mail (London) and CNet
In an interview earlier this week, Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu repeated his demand that EU abide by its commitments in the EU-Turkey migrant deal, specifically visa liberalization -- allowing any of Turkey's 74 million citizens to be able to travel freely throughout Europe's Schengen zone without a visa. ( "16-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey threatens EU migrant deal, saying EU is humiliating Turkey, not helping") According to Cavusoglu:
"I don’t want to talk about the worst-case scenario but it is clear: either we apply all the agreements together, or we set them all aside. It can't be that we implement everything that is good for the EU but that Turkey gets nothing in return."
Cavusoglu set October as a deadline. A previous deadline of June has already been ignored, and few people believe that the EU will approve visa liberalization by then.
The number of migrants crossing from Turkey to Greece has already begun to surge since the July 15 attempted coup in Turkey. What this illustrates is that Turkey can apply pressure on a gradual basis. Turkey could allow the number of migrants daily to increase from 100 to 150 to 200 and so forth, continuing to demand that the EU meeting its commitments.
Greece's government is also taking steps to prepare for a new wave of migrants by lobbying the EU government to modify the 1990 "Dublin Agreement," which specifies that a migrant can request asylum only in the first EU country in which the migrant arrives. Since that country is Greece most of the time, Greece is bearing most of the burden of the refugee crisis. Greece would like to modify the agreement to put into effect a plan to distribute migrants to all of the EU nations. However, some eastern European countries have indicated that they will refuge to receive any migrants at all, and diplomatic sources have indicated that any change to the Dublin Agreement is unlikely during Slovakia’s presidency of the EU, which finishes at the end of the year.
According to some reports, Germany is planning to send some 3,000 migrants to Greece in the coming weeks, following the rules of the Dublin Agreement. Kathimerini and Greek Reporter
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Aug-16 World View -- Number of migrants reaching Greece surges since Turkey's attempted coup thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Aug-2016)
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Generational alignments of the world's religions - hypothesis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Pentagon announced on Tuesday that it's cleared the way for Russian bombers to travel across Iraq's airspace traveling from an Iran airbase to bomb targets in Syria.
On the same day, Iran announced that Russia's bombers will be stationed at an Iranian airbase near Hamadan, a city in western Iran. This will be the first time since World War II that Iran will permit foreign military actions to be launched from Iran's soil.
According to Pentagon spokesman Col. Chris Garver:
"They informed us they were coming through, and we ensured safety of flight as those bombers passed through the area and toward their target and then when they passed out [of Syria] again."
Tuesday is not the first time Russia has launched airstrikes from outside of Syria. Last October, Russia began launching long-range rockets into Syria from the Caspian Sea. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea") Tuesday's announcement takes Russia's military dominance of the Mideast one step further. VOA and AEI Iran Tracker and Russia Today
According to Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council:
"Cooperation between Tehran and Moscow to fight against terrorism in Syria is strategic and we exchange our capacities and possibilities in this regard. ...The conditions have grown difficult for the terrorists due to the constructive and extensive cooperation among Iran, Russia, Syria and the resistance front and this trend will continue with new and massive operations until their full annihilation."
At the same time, Shamkhani was critical of Saudi Arabia:
"It is not acceptable for the Muslim world to see Saudi Arabia investing towards the empowerment of terrorist and takfiri groups [non-believers] instead of fighting the occupation by the Zionist regime [Israel]."
Shamkhani's use of "takfiri groups" is purposely ambiguous. For the West, he undoubtedly wanted listeners to interpret "takfiri groups" as a reference to so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). This is the game everyone is playing in the Mideast. Iran, Syria, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia all claim that they're targeting ISIS, but in fact Iran, Syria and Russia have done very little to target ISIS, but instead consider all Sunni civilians in Syria to be terrorists and takfiri, and have been targeting them.
Indeed, Syrian warplanes, aided by Russia, have for five years been targeting schools, hospitals, and neighborhoods of ordinary Sunni civilians, including women and children, whom they consider to be like cockroaches to be exterminated, with huge barrel bombs laden with explosives, metal and chemical weapons (chlorine). And on Tuesday, Human Rights Watch reported that Syrian and Russian warplanes are using incendiary weapons like napalm to create massive explosive fires in civilian neighborhoods and other Sunni targets.
So when Shamkhani blames Saudi Arabia for "the empowerment of terrorist and takfiri groups," he's referring to Saudi support for any Sunnis in Syria, even women and children. The inference to be drawn from Shamkhani's remarks is that the stationing of Russia's warplanes on Iranian soil is directed at their centuries-old enemy, Saudi Arabia, as well as anyone in Syria.
And indeed, that's obviously true. With the US in control of Iraqi airspace, the Saudis could feel protected from an Iranian attack. But now the US is giving way to Russia, as well as to Iran, and this will only cause the Saudis to feel far less secure.
Once again, a new event is emerging that validates the Generational Dynamics predictions made ten years ago. Long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United States and the West will be on the other side. ( "8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia")
When I first made this prediction, years ago, it seemed almost psychopathic to suggest that Iran was going to be America's ally. However, regular readers know that for the last few years there have been a regular series of events that move the Mideast along the predicted trend line, with Syria, Russia and Iran more closely allied, and with close cooperation from the US and the West. At the same time, relations between the US and Saudi Arabia have been getting more and more distant, as I've reported many times since the "Arab Spring" in 2011. If you want to understand where the Mideast is going, then follow the Generational Dynamics trend lines and forecasts, and you will have the answer. FARS (Tehran) and AFP
I've been writing for a long time that there's a centuries-old historic alignment between Hindus and Shia Muslims. I'd now like to expand that concept to discuss a hypothesis involving historic religious alignments.
The first observation is that if Hinduism is aligned with Shia Islam, then it makes sense that Buddhism is aligned with Sunni Islam. The reason that this makes sense is that Hinduism and Buddhism are bitter historic enemies, just as Shia and Sunni Buddhism are bitter historic enemies. So if Shias and Hindus are aligned, it makes sense that Sunnis and Buddhists should be aligned as well.
Also, for reasons that I'll explain below, I believe that Hindus/Shias are aligned with Jews, Protestants and Orthodox Christians, while Buddhists/Sunnis are aligned with Catholics.
To test this, I've gone to the CIA Fact Book, and made a list of countries that are predominantly one of these religions:
Examining this list, we can see that the hypothesis probably doesn't apply to Japan, N. Korea or S. Korea, but this isn't surprising, since I believe that this hypothesis mainly applies to Europe, the Mideast and Central Asia, where the most wars have been fought between Buddhists and Hindus or Muslims, which is not the case for Japan or Korea, where the main wars have been fought with each other and with China.
The next observation is that religions can be split into two groups:
By "universal religions," I mean religions that can spread to any country, and have done so.
By "targeted religions," I mean religions that target a specific regional or national population on a geographic basis. You can be a "Catholic" anywhere in the world, but you can't just be an "Orthodox Christian," unless you're a "Greek Orthodox" or "Russian Orthodox" or some other branch. The same thing is true of the Protestant religion, which has about 20 different churches in the United States alone, each targeting a different group. There are only three religions that have "gone viral" and become virtually universal: Catholicism, Sunni Islam and Buddhism. For example, in China, you'll find plenty of Catholics, plenty of Sunni Muslims, and plenty of Buddhists, but few Greek Orthodox or Shia Muslims or Hindus.
So when we look at which countries will be aligned in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, the hypothesis is the "universal religion" countries will be aligned against the "targeted religion" countries.
Obviously, this hypothesis is a very broad generalization, and there are exceptions that one can point to. But in any generational crisis war, these are the alignments that I expect to see.
The final observation is that these alignments would also apply throughout history. We can therefore provide two lists of historical dynasties that correspond to the above groups of religions:
This is a first pass at a hypothesis relating the world's religions to each other in a significant way. There are still details to be filled in, and exceptions to be enumerated and explained, but I believe that the core of this hypothesis is valid. And if it can be properly defined, it will be a powerful generational tool in analyzing history and in predicting future trends and events. CIA World Fact Book - Religions
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Aug-16 World View -- Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Aug-2016)
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Turkey's failed coup raises concerns about nuclear weapons at Incirlik Air Base
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A large truck bomb exploded outside a police station near Turkey's southeastern city of Diyarbakir on Monday. Five police officers and two civilians, including a child of one of the police officers were killed, and another 21 were wounded.
No one has claimed credit, but since the Diyarbakir region is a stronghold for militants from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), there's little doubt that the perpetrators were from the PKK. Indeed, the PKK attacked the same police station five years ago.
Diyarbakir police have been on high alert due to expectations that PKK militants would carry out an attack on Aug. 15, as the date marks the 32nd anniversary of the PKK’s first armed attack in 1984. In anticipation of a possible attack, police have been conducting operations against the PKK for five days, and have detained a total of 161 people suspected of being PKK members. There were 37 more arrests on Monday.
The PKK terrorist group has been fighting Turkey's government since 1984, and more than 40,000 people have been killed. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al-Jazeera
On July 15, there was a failed coup in Turkey, where hundreds of soldiers using tanks, fighter jets and helicopters took control of key areas of Ankara and Turkey. At least 246 people were killed , and more than 2,000 injured. ( "17-Jul-2016 World View -- Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours")
Since that time, over 22,000 people have been arrested and almost 8,000 more are suspects under investigation. Thousands of members of the armed forces, police, judiciary, civil service and public sector have been removed from their posts. Around 50,000 passports were cancelled, journalists and academics have been arrested and more than 130 media outlets were shut down.
Western governments condemned the coup, but also expressed concern over the extent of the crackdown, which seems to be an opportunity for Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to take on additional powers and crush human rights. ( "22-Jul-2016 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West")
There has been a growing sentiment in Turkey that the West was more concerned about those conducting the attempted coup, rather than Turkey's democracy. These concerns have apparently caused the public to put their political differences aside and unite behind Erdogan, blaming the West for humiliating Turkey.
During a press interview on Monday, Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was asked about Turkey's application to join the European Union:
"The Turkish people are traumatized [by the failed coup]. Rather than helping Turkey, (European nations) are humiliating us. Turkey has made intense efforts like few other nations, to fulfill the conditions of accession to the EU. In return, Turkey has received only threats, insults and a total blockage. I ask myself, what crime have we committed? Why this hostility?"
The major issue having to do with Turkey's relations with Europe is the EU-Turkey migrant deal, which has sharply reduced the size of the tsunami of Syrian refugees crossing the Aegean Sea from Turkey and arriving at Greece's islands. Under the terms of that deal, The EU committed to visa liberalization by the end of June -- allowing any of Turkey's 74 million citizens to be able to travel freely throughout Europe's Schengen zone without a visa. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said repeatedly that if visa liberalization isn't granted, then he'll cancel the deal and allow the full flow of Syrian refugees to Europe to resume.
The end of June came and went, and there was no talk in the press about visa liberalization. Then the July 15 failed coup occurred in Turkey, and the whole subject was shelved, both because of the general chaos following the coup attempt, and because Erdogan's crackdown following the coup attempt raised numerous human rights issues that, according to the EU, had to be resolved before visa liberalization could proceed.
During his interview on Monday, Cavusoglu once again raised the visa liberalization issue, and set a new deadline -- October. He was asked whether Turkey might cancel the migrant deal, and permit the tsunami of Syrian refugees to resume:
"I don’t want to talk about the worst-case scenario but it is clear: either we apply all the agreements together, or we set them all aside. It can't be that we implement everything that is good for the EU but that Turkey gets nothing in return."
There are many people in the EU who are opposed to visa liberalization for Turks under any conditions whatsoever. Cavusoglu this month referred to Austria as the “capital of radical racism” after Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern suggested ending EU accession talks with Turkey.
A major remaining issue is that Turkey is accusing Fethullah Gulen, a 76-year-old Turkish Muslim cleric, living in self-imposed exile in America since splitting with Erdogan, of orchestrating the coup from his desk in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania. Erdogan has requested that Gulen be extradited back to Turkey to stand trial for the coup. The Obama administration said that it is willing to extradite Gulen, but only after Turkey has provided suitable evidence that would withstand a court trial showing a connection between Gulen and the coup. Such evidence is probably not forthcoming, so this issue is far from resolution.
Erdogan and other Turkish officials claim that they bent over backwards to accommodate the West. They say that they've made numerous changes to their laws to satisfy the human rights requirements of the EU, and they signed and enforced the EU-Turkey migrant deal. They believe that they've gotten nothing in return except insults and humiliation. They will expect the West to meet their legal commitments -- visa liberalization and extradition of Gulen. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Independent (London) and Reuters
A new report questions the wisdom of storing America's nuclear weapons at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. Although the Pentagon does not discuss where its nuclear weapons are stored, it's believed that about 50 B61 tactical nuclear weapons are being stored at Incirlik.
According to the Stimson Center report, the United States first deployed tactical nuclear bombs in Europe during the Cold War in the late 1950s and early 1960s, to offset a buildup of Soviet tank armies deployed in Eastern Europe. Although most U.S. tactical weapons were withdrawn from Europe during the early 1990s, 180 of the tactical versions of the B61s remain at six bases in Europe — in Belgium, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Turkey.
The report claims that storing the nuclear weapons at Incirlik is expensive. But more concerning is that the coup revealed "unanswerable questions" -- whether the US could have maintained control if the coup had succeeded, and whether the nuclear weapons are safe from terrorist attacks.
Another report, from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), also raises some concerns, but says the security situation is adequate, as they are guarded by US troops, and are stored securely underground. To steal or access these bombs, the report suggests, one would need to overwhelm US and NATO forces on one of their own bases, and then come up with some way to haul a 12 foot long, very heavy warhead.
Another analyst makes the point that even if they were captured, they could not be used without codes held by the US military. Stimson Center and Federation of American Scientists and Saudi Gazette
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey threatens EU migrant deal, saying EU is humiliating Turkey, not helping thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Aug-2016)
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Militants hoist Pakistani flags in Kashmir on Sunday
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On Sunday, Pakistan celebrated its 70th Independence Day. The first Independence Day occurred on August 14, 1947, when Pakistan became an independent state, because of the Partition that split the Indian subcontinent into two nations, India and Pakistan. As I wrote last week, Independence Days for India and Pakistan were followed by the Partition war, one of the most massive and bloodiest wars of the 20th century. ( "7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')")
The Partition war was an "organic" generational crisis civil war between Hindus and Muslims. That is, it came up from the people, rather than coming about because one nation invaded another one. In fact, the leading Hindu and Muslim politicians of the day were in a state of denial, and were caught completely by surprise, and hadn't expected the war to occur at all. And most of the "organic" slaughter was centered in the provinces of Kashmir and Jammu.
The crisis civil war was settled with a compromise: Kashmir and Jammu would be split into separate regions governed by Pakistan and India, respectively, separated by a Line of Control (LoC).
Today, with India and Pakistan again in a generational Crisis era, the leading Hindu and Muslim politicians are once in a state of denial, not realizing how dangerous the situation is, and how a new, bloody, massive "organic" civil war could begin in Kashmir once again.
Pakistan celebrated Independence Day on Sunday with commemorative ceremonies held in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital city, as well as at the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi, India's capital city.
In Islamsbad, the day began with a 31-gun salute in the federal capital along with a 21-gun salute in each provincial capital. Flag hoisting ceremonies were held in the provincial capitals and district headquarters. The main ceremony of the day was held at Islamabad’s Convention Centre, where President Mamnoon Hussain and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif hoisted the national flag.
Nawaz Sharif opened the hostilities by announcing, "I dedicate this year’s 14th August to the freedom of Kashmir." By "freedom," he means that the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir should be given to Pakistan, something that would not happen without a major war.
Pakistan's envoy to India Abdul Basit, the Pakistan High Commissioner in New Delhi, said:
"Pakistan will continue to extend its full diplomatic, political and moral support to the valiant people of Jammu and Kashmir until they get their right to self-determination. ...The only outstanding issue is how to liberate parts of J&K under illegal occupation of Islamabad. As far as Jammu and Kashmir is concerned, we are dedicating this year’s Independence Day to the freedom of Kashmir. And we firmly believe that the sacrifices made by the people of Jammu and Kashmir will not go in vain."
(Correction: The above quote is actually from an Indian minister, Jitendra Singh. What Basit actually said was:
"Pakistan will continue to extend its full diplomatic, political and moral support to the valiant people of Jammu and Kashmir until they get their right to self determination."
Correction added, 17-Aug)
Indian officials criticized Basit's statement because, as Pakistan's envoy to India, his job is to improve communications, not make provocative statements that hinder communication. Jitendra Singh, junior minister at the Prime Minister’s Office, shot back:
"Our stand is very clear in the context of the J&K issue. If at all there is any outstanding issue with Pakistan, it is only on ways to liberate parts of the state which remain under the illegal occupation of Islamabad and make them a part of the Union of India."
India's Home Minister Rajnath Singh also retorted in a similar inflammatory manner:
Nawaz Sharif said that he is waiting for Kashmir to be handed over to Pakistan, he even wrote to UN Secretary General regarding this. I want to assert that no power in the world can wrest Kashmir from us. And if at all they want to have a dialogue with us, then we are ready. But it will be about Pakistan occupied Kashmir, not Kashmir."
On Friday, Pakistan proposed sending supplies to the people of Indian-government Kashmir. An official Indian government spokesman said,
"I can only characterize [the proposal to send] supplies to the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir as absurd. India and others in the region have already received enough of Pakistan’s trademark exports — international terrorism, cross-border infiltrators, weapons, narcotics and fake currency." Indian Express and Pakistan Today
Violent clashes in Kashmir began on July 9, following the death on July 8 of Burhan Wani, 22, a 22-year-old commander in the separatist militia Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). Some 50 Kashmiris were killed and over 1,900 injured. About 600 were blinded for life, having been shot by the security forces with "non-lethal" pellet guns. The death of Wani has triggered weeks of anti-India riots, demonstrations, and violence in Kashmir. ( "21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue")
On Sunday, India imposed a curfew in all major towns of the Indian-controlled portion Kashmir and Jammu, in order to prevent widespread celebrations of Pakistan's Independence Day, but the celebrations occurred anyway.
Large pro-Pakistan rallies were held in several towns in southern Kashmir on Sunday. Militants from Hizbul Mujahideen hoisted Pakistani flags and saluted them.
In one town, nine people were injured when police and paramilitary forces fired pellets on a rally. In another town, a pro-Pakistan rally was dispersed by police, resulting in clashes in which at least six people were injured. Police were pelted with stones in dozens of towns. Indian Express and Geo TV (Pakistan) and Hindustan Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Aug-16 World View -- India, Pakistan celebrate independence day with vitriolic accusations about Kashmir thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Aug-2016)
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Manbij was known as 'Little London' because of British jihadists
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Men are shaving their beards and women are removing their burqas in Manbij, Syria, today, after the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) declared the city fully liberated on Friday.
The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) captured the city of over 100,000 people in January 2014, turning what used to be one of Syria's most liberal cities into a virtual hell. ISIS has adopted one of the most psychotic interpretations of Sharia law, with strict dress codes for both men and women, rules forbidding men and women from mixing, rules forbidding smoking and music, mosque attendance required five times per day, and a variety of punishments for even small violations, including flogging, losing a hand, or being beheaded.
The two months of heavy fighting killed more than 1000 people and displaced thousands from their homes. The fighters also freed hundreds of civilians the extremists had used as human shields.
The capture of Manbij is a significant defeat for ISIS because it lies on a key supply route between Turkey's border and the city of Raqqa, the de facto capital of the ISIS. Before ISIS took over, the population of Raqqa was over one million, but many people have fled the city, and it's estimated now that the population is between 250,000 and 300,000. ARA News (Syria-Kurdish) and Telegraph (London) and AP
So many jihadists from Britain have traveled to Manbij to join ISIS that the city has been nicknamed "Little London."
As many as 700 British citizens are thought to have traveled from Britain to Syria to join ISIS between 2011-15, and half of them are believed to have since returned to Britain. There are also jihadists from Germany, France, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria, but Britain has the highest number.
Many of the British citizens re "jihadi brides" who traveled to Syria to marry an ISIS fighter. I assume that these girls are turned on erotically by men who cut off other people's heads. Telegraph (11-Jan) and Daily Mail (3-Jun)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Aug-16 World View -- Wild celebrations in Manbij Syria, after major defeat for ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Aug-2016)
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Any of Thailand's three major ethnic groups could be the perpetrators
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Thailand is on high alert following a total of 13 bombing incidents that killed four people and injured 35 others in five southern provinces between Wednesday and Friday morning. The bombings occurred at beach resorts in southern Thailand. Four people were killed and 35 others, including foreign tourists, were injured.
The characteristics of the bombings were significant different from those usually perpetrated by jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda or the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Instead of being suicide bombings, they were improvised explosive devices (IEDs) triggered remotely by a mobile phone signal. Some analysts are saying that they were low-explosive devices detonated in times and places so that they would cause the enormous casualties that typical ISIS bombings do.
Thus, it's believed that the bombings were perpetrated by a domestic group with the objective of damaging Thailand's tourist industry, which accounts for about 10% of the country's GDP. Bangkok Post and CNN
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There are three major demographic groups in Thailand, and any one of the three could be responsible for the bombings.
The two we've been writing about most in the last few years are competing for political power.
The "yellow shirt" market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite minority live mostly in central Thailand around Bangkok. They're a "market-dominant minority," meaning that even though they're a minority, they control most of the money and businesses in the country, especially in wealthy Bangkok.
The "red shirt" dark-skinned Thai-Thai live in rural areas in northern and northeastern Thailand. Many are farmers, but they also do most of the menial labor that the elites don't want to do, while they vastly outnumber the yellow shirt Thai-Chinese elite. The Thai-Thai are represented by the Pheu Thai political party, which has won the last five elections because of their majority. The yellow shirts used a variety of techniques, from violent protests to army coups, to overturn these elections. The Thai-Thai hero Thaksin Shinawatra was prime minister until 2006, when an army coup forced him out of office, and he now lives in exile in Dubai. His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, then took his place and became prime minister in 2011, until the Constitutional Court forced her to step down by finding her guilty of abusing her power.
Incidentally, my favorite story in this saga occurred in December 2008. ( "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war".) A Thaksin ally, Samak Sundaravej, had been elected prime minister. After violent protests by the yellow shirts, he was forced to step down, because a court removed him from office because he had had a cooking show on tv, and that was somehow considered a conflict of interest. You just can't make this stuff up.
Thailand's army seized power in May 2014, presumably in a victory for the yellow shirts, to prevent another Thai-Thai political victory. Then, just last week, a referendum in Thailand approved a new constitution put forth by the military, in a campaign in which it was against the law to campaign against the referendum, and one could be jailed for doing so. So, not surprisingly, the referendum passed. According to analysts, the new constitution is designed to keep the Thai-Thai political party from winning the next election, so that the elites will remain in power.
So a group of red shirt or yellow shirt activists could be the perpetrators of the bombings of the last three days. Both groups have expressed opposition to the constitution that was just approved, and both groups have used protests to shut down Bangkok's business and retail district, in order to damage the Thai economy.
The third possible perpetrators are the separatist Malay insurgents, living in southern Thailand, in the geographic region where the bombings actually took place. Thailand is primarily Buddhist, but the southern portion of the country, bordering Malaysia, is Muslim. An Islamist insurgency began in the south in 2004, and repeated terrorist attacks have killed thousands.
According to one analyst, one of the towns chosen for the bombings Hua Hin may have been chosen because there's a large community of retirees from Europe living there, giving the bombings a maximum international significance. Hua Hin is also the Thai king's favorite residence outside of Bangkok.
Thailand's last generational crisis war was the 1970s "killing fields" war of Cambodia, the country next door, putting both countries into a generational Awakening-Unraveling era. All three of these groups -- the Buddhist Thai-Chinese and Thai-Thai, and the Muslim Malays -- are displaying typical behaviors for these eras, including peaceful protests that turn violent. The army is also using typical behaviors that we've seen in other countries, including Bangladesh, Burundi, Syria, Zimbabwe, and others, by using both political means and violence. The pattern will continue with increasing protests, riots and violence by protest groups, with the army will respond with increasing political repression and violence, with a continuing cycle of violence that can last for decades before another ethnic war breaks out. Chatham House and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Aug-16 World View -- Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Aug-2016)
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US forces in Libya may declare victory over ISIS this week
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As we reported earlier this week, Russia has been massing troops, tanks and other military hardware in Ukraine on northern border of the Crimea Peninsula of Ukraine, and closing crossing points.
On Thursday, Russia's FSB (successor to the KGB) issued this explanation:
"FSB Russia prevented the commission in the Republic of Crimea of terrorist attacks prepared by the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of UkraineThe Federal Security Service prevented the commission of terrorist attacks in the Republic of Crimea prepared by the General Directorate of the Ministry of Intelligence of Defense of Ukraine, the targets of which have been identified as critical infrastructure and livelihood of the peninsula.
The purpose of the sabotage and terrorist attacks is to destabilize the social and political situation in the region during the preparation and conduct of elections of the federal and regional authorities.
As a result of operational search activities on the night of the 6th of August 7th, 2016, in the region of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea discovered a group of saboteurs. During the arrest of the terrorists, a firefight occurred and a Russian FSB officer died. At the site of clashes, investigators found 20 improvised explosive devices with a total capacity of more than 40 kilograms of TNT, ammunition and special means of initiation, regular and anti-magnetic mines, as well as grenades and special weapons, consisting of armed special units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
We've now had several years of statements by Putin and Russia's government about Ukraine and Syria that turned out to be total lies, so we can reasonably assume that most of the FSB statement is a total lie. I'm not saying that everything that Ukraine's government says is truth. All I'm saying is that, after several years of an unending stream of total lies and hundreds of Russian internet trolls paid to lie, we can be certain that anything that comes from Russia's government is total BS, with no relation to the truth except by accident.
Large quantities of Russian military hardware are being deployed in Crimea, far more than would be justified by a single gunfight, or even a single terrorist attack. Columns of armored personnel carriers, military ambulances, fuel tankers, trucks, signals and engineering vehicles have been video-recorded in the port town of Kerch, which handles ferry arrivals from Russia. They have also been spotted in the Crimean regional capital of Simferopol, and outside a military training range near the southern town of Feodosia. Internet services have been cut in northern Crimea, with no explanation.
Ukraine is denying Russia's accusations, but in reaction to Russia's actions, Ukraine's army is reinforcing units in Kherson, the region just across the Crimean border.
One possible target of a new Russian invasion would be an attack on the port city of Mariupol. As you can see from the above map, Kerch is separated from the Russian mainland by a narrow body of water that links the Sea of Asov with the Black Sea. In 2014, Russia had announced the intention to build a land bridge connecting Kerch with the mainland, but that has never happened, and so people, supplies, and military equipment have to depend on ferries to reach Crimea from Russia.
From Russia's point of view, the best solution would be a new invasion of Ukraine targeting Mariupol, and then to take control of the entire land border with the Sea of Asov. That would allow Russia to deliver people, supplies and military equipment overland in cars, trucks and buses. From there, Russian forces could continue westward to Odesa and then on to Transnistria, an enclave in eastern Moldova with a heavy Russian population. ( "5-Nov-14 World View -- Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten port city Mariupol")
It's always wise to remember that Russian troops are still occupying eastern Ukraine, and Russian separatist leaders in 2014 repeatedly threatened a complete secession of the region from Ukraine, so that Russia can annex the entire region just as Crimea was annexed.
Nobody knows what Russia is planning, and not a word they say can be believed, but there is something going on, and we'll have to wait and see what it is. Daily Beast and VOA and Guardian (London)
The following analysis is from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI):
U.S.-backed forces in Libya may declare victory over the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Sirte this week, but a victory over ISIS in Sirte may lead to more conflict in the long term and ultimately strengthen actors that pose a direct threat to U.S. national security.
The fall of Sirte is imminent. Libyan militias allied with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) seized ISIS’s primary remaining stronghold on August 10, along with other key ISIS positions in the city center. U.S. air support and Special Operations Forces allowed the GNA-allied militias to overcome ISIS’s defenses. The militias will continue to combat pockets of resistance in the city but will likely declare total victory over ISIS in Sirte within the coming week.
The fall of Sirte is not an existential threat to ISIS in Libya, however. ISIS militants continue to operate openly in northern Libya, including in Benghazi in the east and near Sabratha in the northwest. Nor has ISIS lost the capabilities that it based in Sirte. Approximately 350 ISIS fighters remain in the city, but the majority of ISIS’s fighting force has withdrawn to southern Libya or infiltrated civilian populations. ISIS may reconstitute in a safe haven in southern Libya, from which it will resume attacks in northern Libya and attack into neighboring Tunisia and Algeria. AEI Critical Threats
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Aug-16 World View -- Fears grow that a new Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Aug-2016)
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Japan-China relations 'deteriorate significantly' after repeated Chinese provocations
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Reports indicate that Vietnam is deploying rocket launchers on five of its bases in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The launchers have been hidden from aerial surveillance and they have yet to be armed, but could be made operational with rocket artillery rounds within two or three days. Vietnam's Foreign Ministry responded to the reports by saying that the information was "inaccurate," without elaborating.
It's believed that Vietnam is deploying a state of the art EXTended Range Artillery (EXTRA) rocket system that it recently acquired from Israel Military Industries.
The EXTRA is a highly mobile weapon system and can be installed on either a truck or in a fixed installation. Vietnam procured the new mobile rocket launchers specifically with the Spratlys in mind given that it requires little logistical support -- e.g., it only uses a small lightweight radar system—and has very low maintenance costs (EXTRA rounds come in disposable sealed canisters).
EXTRA is equipped with a GPS inertial navigation system that makes it highly accurate up to a range of 150 km (93 miles), with different 150 kg (330 lb) warheads that can carry high explosives or bomblets to attack multiple targets simultaneously. Operated with targeting drones, they could strike both ships and land targets. That puts China's artificial islands, and the military installations installed on them, within range of the rocket system.
Vietnam and China have fought several wars in the last few decades. In a 1979 border war, China invaded Vietnam with 80,000 soldiers. They were driven back by the Vietnamese within six weeks, killing as many as 50,000 people on both sides. In their retreat, the Chinese implemented a barbaric scorched-earth policy, destroying every building and killing every animal. In 1974, China seized the Paracels by force from Vietnam, and in 1988, Chinese naval forces defeated the Vietnamese navy at Johnson South Reef.
So it's not an exaggeration to say that both sides are preparing for war, and in the current highly tense atmosphere, with surging nationalism and xenophobia on both sides, a war could start any day. Reuters and The Diplomat and Israel Military Industries
In moves that are apparently intended to provoke the Japanese, Chinese coast guard vessels have been entering waters surrounding the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. The Senkaku Islands are governed by Japan, but are claimed by China as their sovereign territory.
According to Japan's coast guard, 13 coast guard vessels sails through Japanese waters surrounding the Senkakus on Tuesday. This has happened already four times this month, and Tuesday's incident was the third day in a row. It's believed that some of the ships contain military forces.
Japan's government summoned the Chinese envoy to launch a formal objection. According to Japan's foreign minister Fumio Kishida:
"The situation surrounding the Japan-China relationship is significantly deteriorating. We cannot accept that [China] is taking actions that unilaterally raise tensions."
At Wednesday's US US State Dept. press briefing, spokesman Elizabeth Trudeau made a point of issuing a statement in defense of Japan:
"We continue to closely monitor the situation around the Senkaku Islands. We are in close communication with the Japanese as allies and are also concerned about the increase of Chinese coast guard vessels in the vicinity of the islands. As you noted, the U.S. position on the Senkaku Islands, as stated previously by the President, is clear and longstanding. The Senkaku Islands have been under Japanese administration since the reversion of Okinawa in 1972, such they fall within the scope of the article 5 of the 1960 U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. We oppose any unilateral action that seeks to undermine Japan’s administration of the Senkaku islands."
The statement contains an explicit reference to article 5 of the 1960 U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. According to that treaty, US armed forces will defend Japan if China takes any military action against Japan or the Senkakus. Nikkei and BBC and US State Dept.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Aug-16 World View -- Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Aug-2016)
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Russia massing tanks and troops in Ukraine on northern border of Crimea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Ukraine is deploying troops and military equipment to the border with the Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed after invading Ukraine in 2014, after residents reported a new Russian military buildup in northern Crimea, including troops, tanks, and other military hardware. In addition, Russia closed crossing points along the northern border on Sunday morning, although some of them have been reopened. Gunfire has also been reported.
Tensions are high because it's not known whether the deployment is a military exercise, or whether it's the prelude to a new invasion of Ukraine by Russia's military.
It's worthwhile today to briefly review what happened in 2014. Russia's president Vladimir Putin said that there were no Russian troops in Crimea, as Russian troops were invading Crimea. Later, Putin said would Russia would not annex Crimea, and a few days later, Russia annexed Crimea. On TV, Putin bragged about repeatedly lying and completely fooling the West. Putin said there were no Russian troops in East Ukraine as Russian troops were invading East Ukraine. Russian separatists in East Ukraine used a Russian-built Buk surface-to-air missile system to shoot down a passenger plane, Malaysian Airlines flight 17, killing hundreds of innocent civilians. The Russians lied, and said that the plane had fallen out of the sky by itself, or had been struck by a meteor. ( "14-Oct-15 World View -- Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine")
So now Russian troops and military equipment are massing on the northern border of Crimea, and no one doubts that a new invasion of Ukraine could happen at any time. One thing that we can be sure of is that whatever Putin and the Russians say will have no relationship to the truth, except by accident. RFE/RL and Daily Mail (London) and Ukraine Today
Furious Chinese state media are accusing the South Korean government of "seditious" moves by attacking the motives of South Koreans who opposed deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system. According to Xinhua, South Koreans opposing the THAAD deployment "are being reviled as blind followers of North Korea, or sycophant betrayers.
The THAAD deployment was triggered by aggressive military development in North Korea. This year, the North has made its fourth nuclear missile test, and has conducted numerous long-range missile tests. The obvious conclusion is that North Korea is developing technology to launch a nuclear strike against South Korea, Japan, and the United States. South Korea has rebuffed US requests to deploy THAAD for years, but recently acquiesced because of the North's nuclear weapon and long-range missile tests. ( "4-Aug-16 World View -- North Korean missile strikes sea close to Japan, threatening radar base")
China has been fuming at South Korea since the announcement, but the threats in China's media go well beyond demonizing South Korea's government. Beijing's Global Times advocates counter-measures:
There's little doubt that many South Koreans are becoming panicky over North Korean nuclear missile systems. So one might reasonably wonder why China is so freaked out over an anti-missile system to provide protection from those weapons.
Chinese media provides the answer:
"The X-band radar can snoop on Chinese and Russian territories as it can spot at least 2,000 km. Seoul claims that it will adopt the radar with a detectable range of 600-800 km, but the mode change can be made at any time in accordance with the needs of the U.S military that will operate the THAAD battery in South Korea."
In other words, the Chinese are freaking out because THAAD protects South Korea, Japan and the US not just from North Korean missiles, but also from Chinese missiles.
China has been preparing to launch a pre-emptive attack on the United States back at least as far as the 1990s. During the last 20 years, China has been spending trillions of dollars on one nuclear missile system after another with no purpose except to destroy American cities, aircraft carriers, and military bases.
The THAAD anti-missile system, if successful, could force China to postpone their invasion plans for years, and may also require them to spend trillions more to reconfigure their missile systems to defend against THAAD. No wonder they're infuriated.
The recent ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague has been a devastating political blow to the Chinese. The ruling completely eviscerated China's claims in the South China Sea, and made it clear that China's artificial islands are illegal, and one of them is actually in waters governed by the Philippines. Not only that, but some of China's evidence to support it claims turns out to be delusional or a complete hoax. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea")
China's reaction to all this is to become even more militarily belligerent, not only in the South China Sea but also in the East China Sea in belligerent confrontations with Japan.
As I've written in the past, China is behaving in a highly emotional, irrational, panicky, nationalistic manner, issuing delusional and fabricated evidence to support claims that everybody knows are false claims. This is what makes China so dangerous, and may cause them to make some really stupid decisions that will result in a world war, killing billions of people, and painting themselves as worse than Hitler's Nazis for decades. Xinhua and Global Times (Beijing) and Council on Foreign Relations
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Aug-16 World View -- China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Aug-2016)
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The debate in Pakistan: Good terrorists vs Bad terrorists
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Terror attacks are nothing out of the ordinary in Pakistan, but this attack on Monday is causing even more consternation than others because it exposes the weaknesses in its own security services as well as its inability to control terror groups that in the past it helped create.
On Monday, a terrorist gunman in Quetta shot Bilal Anwar Kasi, the leader of the Balochistan Bar Association, where Quetta is the provincial capital of the province of Balochistan, which is in southwest Pakistan bordering Iran and Afghanistan.
Kasi was taken to Quetta's Civil Hospital, where a group of lawyers gathered to mourn his death. A suicide bomber then approached the lawyers and exploded, killing at least 75 people, mostly lawyers, and injuring at least 115 others.
Jamaat ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly of Freedom) claimed responsibility. JuA has long been one of the terrorist groups under the umbrella group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). JuA split off from TTP in the middle of 2014 in a disagreement caused by TTP's plans to hold peace talks with Pakistan's government. JuA has rejoined TTP last year, but has also declared allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). For that reason, ISIS is also claiming responsibility for the attack.
On March 15 of last year, JuA claimed responsibility for suicide bombers at two churches, one Catholic and one Protestant, also in Lahore, killing 15 people and injuring 70.
On March 27 of this year, JuA took credit for the Easter massacre of Christians in Lahore in a terror attack. That attack killed more than 69 people, mostly women and children, and injured more than 300. That attack was supposed to kill Christians, but as it turned out, most of the people killed were Muslims. At the time, a JuA spokesman issued a statement: "Members of the Christian community who were celebrating Easter today were our prime target. [However,] we didn't want to kill women and children. Our targets were male members of the Christian community."
So JuA was pretty incompetent in that attack, killing a lot of Muslim women and children rather than Christian men. Pretty stupid bunch. So maybe this time they decided to target lawyers so that they'd kill only men, but they're still just killing Muslims. A regular bunch of Keystone Kops. Dawn (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Britannica
Many analysts, especially in India, are accusing Pakistan of having a policy of distinguishing between "good terrorists," who target Afghanistan and India, and "bad terrorists," who target Pakistan itself. It was just last week that US State Department spokesman Mark Toner said exactly that:
"[We] believe that Pakistan has taken and is taking steps to counter terrorist violence, and certainly focusing on those groups that threaten Pakistani or Pakistan’s stability. They have – the military has shut down some of these safe havens. They’ve restored government control to parts of Pakistan that were used as terrorist safe havens for years. And these are important steps that have continued – or contributed, rather, to security interests in the region. And they’ve come at a cost of Pakistani lives lost. But at the same time, we’ve been very clear with the highest levels of the Government of Pakistan that they must target all militant groups, and that includes those that target Pakistan’s neighbors, and they must also close all safe havens."
It's ironic that Toner made these remarks just a few days before Monday's horrific attack. On Saturday, an angry editorial in Pakistan's Daily Times directed outrage at Toner:
"May I ask whether the State Department has given any proof to Islamabad pinpointing the safe havens? Google Earth is now in everybody’s hands; no part on earth remains a secret to anyone in the world or beyond this globe. Shouldn’t Mark Toner present the satellite images of any of the safe havens within Pakistan or those spared by the forces engaged in Zarb-e-Azb operation? Such statements are tantamount to casting aspersions on Pakistani people, government and armed forces’ all-out sincere efforts to kill this terror monster once and for all. Time and again, Americans have been told that we no more differentiate between good and bad Taliban."
The Saturday editorial agrees that Pakistan in the past used to differentiate between good and bad Taliban, but claims that it no longer happens.
For many years, Pakistan resisted international calls to do something about the terrorist havens, particularly in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the border with Afghanistan. In June 2014, the Taliban pulled off a spectacular attack on Karachi airport. The editorial above refers to Zarb-e-Azb, which is the name of an operation that Pakistan's army finally launched in the tribal area, to "clean out" the Taliban's hideouts and weapons stores.
On Monday, the BBC interviewed Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's former ambassador to the United States. He was asked to comment on Monday's attack in Quetta. Here's my transcription:
"The extremist jihadis obviously do not appreciate or agree with modernity, and lawyers do represent rule of law, they represent a more secular orientation than the jihadis would want. Pakistan's dilemma is that it ends up supporting certain jihadis for operations against Afghanistan and India, while at the same time helping others. The ones it supports end up helping the ones it opposes.There are 42 jihadi extremist groups in Pakistan that have been identified as perpetrators of terrorism in Pakistan. Several have been banned, but have resurfaced, because of Pakistan's policy of making a distinction between groups that it can use against its neighbors and groups that it wants to suppress.
Baluchistan is a particularly difficult province - it has an insurgency going on by Baluch secular nationalists, and the army tends to use the Islamists to try and fight the separatists or nationalists, whom it considers to be a greater threat to Pakistan.
There was some success [with the Zarb-e-Azb army operation], but the success will always be limited by Pakistan's own 25 year policy of making distinctions between groups. So while some groups have been suppressed, others have not. ...
[Pakistan's policy] has indeed created a monster, and Pakistan's people have suffered because of that, but Pakistan's military intelligence service, Pakistan's military and some elements of what can be called the Pakistan establishment are just too wedded to this policy to want to change it, even though the cost is as high as we saw today.
It's quite clear that Washington's support [for Pakistan] - $23 billion since 9/11 - has not worked sufficiently to make Pakistan change its policy entirely, and so we do not know what [additional] pressure Washington might be able to bear. I think what we have to live with is that Pakistan will continue to be in this dichotomous position, until and unless Pakistan's leaders realize that the price their people are paying is just too high."
US State Dept. (4-Aug) and Daily Times (Pakistan, 6-Aug) and Daily Excelsior (India, 7-Aug)
An injured youth died on Monday, after suffering injuries sustained in a police action in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Violent clashes in Kashmir began on July 9, following the death on July 8 of Burhan Wani, 22, a 22-year-old commander in the separatist militia Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). ( "21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue")
The number of people killed has now risen to 58, despite a curfew that's now 31 days old, and there's no end in sight.
Many people believe that Pakistan is stoking the violence and even providing money and weapons to terror groups in Kashmir. This belief is supported by the fact that terrorist HM leader Syed Salahuddin is speaking out, calling Wani a "martyr," and and adding that "Pakistan is duty bound, morally bound, politically bound and constitutionally bound to provide concrete, substantial support to the ongoing freedom struggle on the territory of Kashmir."
It certainly is possible that Pakistan is directly or indirectly supporting the Kashmir separatists, but it's also true that many people in Pakistan's Punjab province have friendships with people in Kashmir, or they're in the same family. They are going to identify with the people of Kashmir and support them, either indirectly or directly, at least with moral support.
My article two days ago contained generational histories of India's 1857 Rebellion and the 1947 Partition war. ( "7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')")
In both of those cases, there were extremely bloody wars, and they were completely organic, in the sense that they were not directed by armies or generals, but rose up from the people. This organic war, where protests and demonstrations become violent and spiral out of control are the hallmark of a generational crisis war, the worst and bloodiest kinds of war. The situation in Kashmir is looking more and more like this kind of organic war.
Since the 1947 Partition war, there have been three non-crisis wars fought between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. The terrorist Syed Salahuddin, quoted above, said on Monday, "I can predict a 4th war with certainty because Kashmiris are no longer willing to compromise, come what may." Salahuddin also predicted that this could spiral into a much larger war, and even become a nuclear war. If the Kashmir demonstrations become more violent, and begin to look more and more like what happened in 1857 and 1947, then Salahuddin may turn out to have been right. New Indian Express and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and First Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Aug-16 World View -- Quetta Pakistan terror attack kills 75, while unrest grows in Kashmir thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Aug-2016)
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People of Aleppo burn tires to create a smoky 'no-fly zone'
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With Aleppo's civilians, including hundreds of thousands of women and children, being bombed indiscriminately by the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and by Russia's warplanes, sending missiles into schools and hospitals, dropping barrel bombs laden with metal and chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, the people are using any method they can to protect themselves. Even children are doing their part.
The people of Aleppo, including children, are burning tires in order to create a "smoke curtain" above the city, blocking the warplanes from identifying targets to bomb. There have been repeated proposals to create a "no-fly zone" over Syria, but none has ever been implemented. The people of Aleppo are creating their own no-fly zone by burning tires. BBC and Gulf News
Rebel forces in Syria fighting against the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, supported by forces from Iran and Iran-controlled Hezbollah and by Russia's air force, are claiming that they've broken the siege that had blocked food shipments into Aleppo.
If this is true then it could represent a major setback for al-Assad and for Russia's president Vladimir Putin. As we described last week, Russia is using the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo. There are 300,000 civilians, including women and children, in Aleppo. Putin's plan, following the Grozny model that Russia used in the war in Chechnya, is to drive as many people out of Aleppo as possible, to where they can be easily targeted and killed by missiles and chlorine-laden barrel bombs, and then call anyone remaining in the city a "terrorist," and flatten the entire city, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians.
Part of the strategy was to use a siege to starve the city, and then allow people to leave at the appropriate time. However, a coalition of two dozen anti-Assad rebel groups, calling itself "The Army of Conquest," led by Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS), are claiming that they've broken the siege and that food is entering the city.
Apparently, the change that permitted the coalition to be formed was that JFS renounced its affiliation with al-Qaeda. ( "29-Jul-16 World View -- Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham") Many anti-Assad groups didn't want to be linked to al-Qaeda, and were demanding that Jabhat al-Nusra split with al-Qaeda before any coalition could be formed.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the rebels had broken the siege but the route was "not fully secure yet." Even if the coalition have broken the siege, it remains to be seen whether they can consolidate their gains, especially as the Syrian, Russian and Iranian forces redeploy to reinstate the siege. AP and ARA News (Syria-Kurdish)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Aug-16 World View -- Syrian regime apparently suffers major setback in Aleppo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Aug-2016)
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Generational history of cow protection in India and Hinduism
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Under political pressure, India's prime minister Narendra Modi broke his silence on "gau rakshaks" (cow protectors), after four Dalits (low-caste "untouchables") in Gujarat were brutally beaten by vigilante gau rakshaks for allegedly killing a cow, which later investigation revealed to have been killed by a lion.
At a townhall meeting on Saturday, Modi said:
"I get so angry at those who are into the Gau-Rakshak business. A Gau-Bhakt (cow devotee) is different, Gau Seva (cow protection) is different. I have seen that some people are into crimes all night and wear the garb of Gau Rakshaks in the day.70-80% will be those who indulge in anti-social activities and try to hide their sins by pretending to be Gau Rakshaks. If they are true protectors, they should realize that most cows die because of plastic, not slaughter. They should stop cows from eating plastic."
Eating of cows has been forbidden by Hinduism for three millennia, but in the current generational Crisis era, the question of protecting cows has become heavily tied into Hindutva, or Hindu nationalism, which sometimes is used to excuse violence towards Muslims, Christians and Dalits. ( "12-Oct-15 World View -- India Hindus attack Muslims as cow slaughter incidents surge")
Although Modi and his ruling Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party have not supported or praised these attacks, they haven't spoken out against them either, until Modi's statement on Saturday. It's possible that there may be a backlash in the days ahead from extreme nationalist members of his own party.
Pawan Pandit, who is chairman of one gau rakshak group, the Bhartiya Gau Raksha Dal (BGRD), defends his movement:
"We are not anti-Muslim or anti-Dalit. We are a fraternity which wants to save the cow, because she is our mother... because that is what my religion, my parents, my holy book, taught me. ..."Forget that cow slaughter hurts our sensibility, forget that our holy book considers slaughter of cow as the biggest crime, forget that we are a majority... at least, look at the cow as the biggest source of economy for rural India. And look at the scientific reasons, the benefits of using its products—be it milk, urine or cow dung. I am not the one saying all this. International research claims so. America, in fact, has patented a cow urine drug."
As far as I can tell, there's a parallel here between India and Pakistan. In India, Hindu nationalists can get somebody killed by falsely accusing him of defiling a cow, while in Pakistan, Muslim nationalists can get somebody killed by falsely accusing him of defiling the Koran. New Delhi Television and Indian Express and Live Mint (India)
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The origins of the veneration of the cow in Hinduism can be traced back almost three millennia to India's Vedic period. With the rise of the ideal of ahimsa (“noninjury”), the absence of the desire to harm living creatures, the cow came to symbolize a life of nonviolent generosity. In addition, because her products supplied nourishment, the cow was associated with motherhood and Mother Earth.
During the Medieval era, especially when the Muslim Mughal Empire was in power, there was always tension between Muslims, who consider pigs to be unclean, and Hindus, who consider cows to be venerated. This led to tensions during generational Awakening eras, and sometimes led to war during generational Crisis eras.
In the 1850s, veneration of cows became a major trigger in the extremely bloody generational crisis war, the 1857 Indian Rebellion, also called India's First War of Independence from the British colonial power.
In the 1850s, the British East India Company, which was governing India, introduced a new sort of ammunition for a new model of the Enfield rifle.
To be loaded, this cartridge had to be torn open so that the powder it contained could be poured down the barrel of the muzzle-loading gun; because the soldier’s hands were full, this was done with the teeth. Then the bullet had to be rammed down the rifled barrel. To facilitate its passage, the cartridges were greased with tallow, which was made of beef and pork fat.
These cartridges were used by British soldiers, and were also issued to sepoys (Indian soldiers) who served under the command of the British army. There's some dispute as to whether the cartridges issued to the sepoys were also greased with beef and pork fat, but there's no doubt that once the issue became public and suspicions were raised, rumors spread rapidly among the sepoys that the British were defiling their bodies and destroying their lives by breaking their castes, which was the punishment for eating beef. The Muslim sepoys were also offended that they had been eating pork fat.
This was a generational Crisis era, and anti-British xenophobia and nationalism were already high, but the greased cartridges triggered riots and mutinies that spread across India. The war lasted over two years and resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths.
There were dramatic changes during the Recovery Era that followed the end of the war. The British Indian Empire was created out of the former East India Company, and India was under the direct rule of the British Crown. However, the Indian tribes and families were given a great deal more autonomy. There was a blossoming of culture, with new universities, colleges and schools opened by Indians, and there was new technology, including new railroads and irrigation systems.
However, it's typical of the government in such situations to do everything possible to prevent anything so horrible from happening again, and in this case it meant harshly suppressing any dissent, even jailing protestors. It's remarkable that of the histories of the 1857 rebellion that were written in the following decades, they were all written by British authors, and almost never by Indian authors.
The first major Indian account of the 1857 Rebellion was by a young Hindu activist named Veer Savarkar, whose book, "The Indian War Of Independence-1857" was published in 1909, and contained descriptions like the following:
"[England] seized the innocent Hindu villagers, sentenced them to be hanged, and then pierced them with bayonets, and then, Heavens! thrust beef dripping with blood – the blood of the cow – down their throats, at the point of the bayonet – a desecration to which they would have preferred being hanged and, even, being burnt alive?"
Savarkar was jailed for insurrection, and later became an extremely violent Hindu nationalist terrorist, and started the Hindutva movement which still exists today.
There were two other well-known figures that came out of the generational Awakening and Unraveling periods following the rebellion: Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, and Muhammad Ali Jinnah, who became the founder of Pakistan.
Gandhi launched a "non-cooperation movement" against the British, involving civil disobedience. The Awakening era climax occurred on April 10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre), when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest meeting, killing hundreds. That event convinced both the British and the Indians that Britain should completely give up control of India.
Cow protection had already started again as a symbol of Hindu nationalism as early as 1882, as cow protection societies began to be formed at that time. Cow protection became more and more important as a nationalist symbol in the following decades, as a decision was made for India to leave the British empire and become an independent state.
The debate in 1946 following World War II centered on two choices: Should there be a single Indian state, with separate regions under the control of Muslims and Hindus, or should there be a two-state solution, a Muslim state living side-by-side in peace with a Hindu state? The argument that won the day was that Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't eat cows, and so they can't live together. Finally, Jinnah and Gandhi agreed that there had to be two separate states, India and Pakistan.
The 1857 rebellion was still fresh in everyone's mind, and it was believed that a new war could be avoided by Britain giving up control of India. If Britain had tried to keep India as part of the British empire, then there might well have been a new war similar to the 1857 rebellion. So that was prevented, but in a generational Crisis era, you have the rise of young generations with no memory of the past, a feeling of invulnerability, and a desire for war -- any war.
So India and Pakistan were created, leading to the 1947 Partition war between Muslims and Hindus, possibly the largest and bloodiest battle of the 20th century, eclipsing the bloodiness of the 1857 Rebellion.
This is an example of the saying, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."
Since then, India and Pakistan have fought three wars. One of these, the 1971 war in Bengal (East Pakistan) was a generational crisis war that created the nation of Bangladesh. ( "3-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the worst in 40 years")
Today, Hindu nationalism is again rising, and it will undoubtedly have the same result that it had in 1947 and 1857. Britannica and Smithsonian and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Aug-2016)
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Egypt claims that it killed leaders of ISIS branch in Sinai
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Children in Venezuela are increasingly dying from starvation, their bodies nothing but skin and bones, the outlines of their ribs visible.
The two major Socialist countries in the world, Venezuela and North Korea, have starving population with no hope for improvement because they're following Socialist policies that have been disastrous whenever and wherever they've been tried. It's just one more of those things that you wouldn't believe is even possible if it weren't actually happening.
The Soviet Union and China were forced to abandon Socialism in the last few decades in order to allow people to eat. Even Cuba, that Socialist paradise, finally gave up Socialism in 2010. ( "16-Sep-2010 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications")
But Cuba's economy is still crippled from decades of Socialism, and is still heavily dependent on Venezuela for energy imports.
For years, Venezuela has met its commitment to Cuba to ship some 80,000 to 90,000 barrels of oil daily to Cuba at subsidized prices in exchange for the services of some 40,000 Cuban medical and educational professionals.
But oil production in Venezuela has fallen 12% in the last year alone, thanks to Venezuela's oil industry, run by incompetent cronies of the Socialist president Nicolás Maduro Moros. Maduro has promised to keep the oil flowing to Cuba, but in fact they're finally declining, down 19.5% this year.
There are widespread fears in Cuba of another "Special Period," like the one that occurred in the early 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet Union, which at that time was Cuba's provider, causing extreme hardship for the Cuban people.
The collapse of Venezuela's economy will impose new hardships on the Cuban people, but they're unlikely to be as bad as the "Special Period" of the 1990s. In 1989, more than 80% of Cuban trade was with the Soviet bloc, which provided 98% of Cuba’s oil. Today, Venezuela accounts for only about 40% of Cuban trade. Today, Cuba imports 59% of its oil, so even a total loss of Venezuelan oil would not have the disastrous impact the Soviet collapse had. Miami Herald and Merco Press (Montevideo Uruguay) and World Politics Review
A statement on the Facebook page of Egypt's armed forces says that a missile strike has killed Abu Doaa Al-Ansari, the leader of the ISIS branch in northern Sinai, along with 45 additional militants.
Al-Ansari was the leader of the terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
ABM has been conducting terror attacks against Egypt's army and government targets for years, but they became more frequent in 2013, after the coup that deposed Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government.
ABM has claimed responsibility for the downing of Russia's Metrojet Flight 9268 passenger plane over Sinai in Egypt in November 2015. ( "5-Nov-15 World View -- Bombing of plane in Egypt threatens Russia's Syria strategy")
Some analysts are questioning the validity of Egypt's claim that ABM leader Abu Doaa Al-Ansari has been killed. They point out that killing 45 militants with a missile strike is extremely unlikely because so many militants would not congregate in one place. Egypt has clamped a strict media blackout on the Sinai, so it's impossible to independently verify Egypt's claims. Daily News Egypt and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al Arabiya (23-Jul)
Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai), formerly Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), the ISIS branch in Egypt's Sinai, has released a 35-minute video entitled "Flames of the Desert," which delivers a rare threat to Israel.
The video shows past attacks on Egypt's military targets, and says:
"This is only the beginning, and our meeting [will be] in Rome and Beit Al-Maqdis [Jerusalem]. ... Oh Jews, wait for us. The punishment [we have prepared for you] is severe and soon you will pay a high price."
ISIS videos have not threatened Israel in the past. The Sinai branch of ISIS may wish to directly threaten Israel because Israel and Egypt are cooperating militarily to defeat ABM, the Sinai branch of ISIS. Jerusalem Post and Egypt Independent
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Aug-16 World View -- Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Aug-2016)
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China overtaking both Russia and US in influence in Central Asia
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It was expected that on Thursday, the Bank of England's governor Mark Carney would announce that the BoE would reduce interest rates from the already low 0.5%, set in 2009 during the financial crisis, to an even lower 0.25%.
Mark Carney, who is a Canadian is currently the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE) did make that exact announcement, but he shocked investors by announcing a lot more. He announced a massive program to "print money" and use it for a quantitative easing program that would purchase about 70 billion pounds ($100 billion) of bonds -- not only government bonds but also corporate bonds.
As we described two days ago, global interest rates have been rapidly plummeting since November of last year, and the average is now at 0.5%, causing a great deal of alarm among many financial experts. Carney said on Thursday that the BoE has no plans to implement negative interest rates, which have been increasingly common in countries around the world, but his announcement nonetheless will push the average down even farther.
The announcements by Mark Carney, who is not a Honeymooner, have received several forms of criticism. Some analysts point out that quantitative easing and low or negative interest rates have been tried around the world and haven't worked so far, although others claim that these policies have allowed the world the recover from the financial crisis. Another criticism is that by purchasing corporate bonds, the BoE will be picking and choosing among companies, giving big advantages to the companies whose bonds are purchased over the companies whose bonds are not purchased. Others say that even if the interest rate change was necessary at this time, the UK economy is in good shape and does not need such a massive quantitative easing purchase.
Carney admitted that he was using "a sledgehammer to crack a nut," and he said that the successful Brexit referendum, which called for Britain to leave the European Union, would cause the economy to slow later this year, and so he was acting pre-emptively:
"We took these steps because the economic outlook has changed markedly. Indicators have all fallen sharply, in most cases to levels last seen in the financial crisis, and in some cases to all-time lows. ...By acting early and comprehensively, the (Bank) can reduce uncertainty, bolster confidence, blunt the slowdown and support the necessary adjustments in the UK economy."
Whether that's true remains to be seen. By announcing such a massive easing program, investors may decide that the UK economy is in more trouble than they realized, and they may actually lose confidence and make things worse than they currently are.
In fact, Generational Dynamics predicts that exactly that will happen, because the velocity of money keeps plummeting. As I explained in "11-Mar-16 World View -- In desperation move, European Central Bank further lowers negative interest rates", the velocity of money is a generational variable, and a falling velocity of money means that people are afraid to spend money or to go into debt.
Carney's desperation announcement on Thursday also contained provision to attempt to tackle the velocity of money problem, saying that the 0.25% interest rates should make it easy for banks to lend money to people and businesses. He said that banks have "no excuse" not to pass on the lower borrowing costs to customers and will be charged a penalty if they fail to do so. That hasn't worked in Japan and Europe, so don't be surprised if it doesn't work in Britain. BBC and Reuters and Bloomberg
On Thursday, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced at a meeting that the US will providing $15 million in aid five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss projects in the fields of trade, transport, business climate, renewable energy sources, the fight against terrorism, as well as the trafficking of weapons, illicit drugs and people. This follows a similar meeting in Uzbekistan in November 2015.
Russian officials fear that the US is trying with this announcement of $15 million in aid to gain greater influence in Central Asia at Russia's expense. The Central Asian countries were all part of the Soviet Union before it disintegrated in 1991, so Russia considers itself to be the prior influencer of these five nations, and considers the US moves to be suspicious.
But in fact, Russia has much more to fear from China than from the US.
Kazakhstan may already be choosing China over Russia. Most of the routes from China to Europe in China's "New Silk Road" or "One Belt One Road" (OBOR) initiative pass through Kazakhstan, giving China numerous opportunities for investments and influence. In fact, Kazakhstan has already announced the "100 concrete steps" program that incorporate Chinese investments and goals. This includes a railway that crosses the entire territory of Kazakhstan and reaches Iran.
However, one result of China's increasing investments is generation of Sinophobia among the general public. As we reported in May, authorities in Kazakhstan have had to react harshly to widespread demonstrations in cities across the country protesting against "land reforms" that would permit large Chinese agribusinesses to take control of vast swaths of farmland.
However, nowhere has the spread of Chinese influence been greater than in Tajikistan. According to one local commentator,
"[China has] begun to extend its financial influence in various spheres of the [Tajikistani] economy, to buy up industries and to take control of agricultural land, [with the result that] we have become completely dependent on China [and] filled up by Chinese entrepreneurs."
It's thought that there are now 150,000 Chinese working in Tajikistan, even though the government says that the total quotas for foreign workers is only 8,000 a year.
As in Kazakhstan, the Chinese are taking control of huge amounts of farmland in the countryside, where officials are renting an increasing amount of land to Chinese farmers for 49-year terms. Furthermore, when the Chinese hire Tajik laborers, they treat them as "second class" people, and pay them less than they pay Chinese workers. Sputnik News (Moscow) and Diplomat (6-Jul) and Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Aug-16 World View -- Bank of England uses 'sledgehammer' stimulus to fight Brexit slowdown thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Aug-2016)
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N. Korean officials reportedly alarmed at Kim Jong-un's drinking and massive weight gain
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Reports indicate that North Korea's Intelligence Agency is becoming concerned about the child dictator's weight gain, which has grown from 198 pounds in 2012 to 286. Reports indicate that Kim Jong-un is consuming high-quality cheeses, Big Macs, vodka, steak, and sushi, and that he's suffering from gout, diabetes, high blood pressure, high uric acid, and high cholesterol.
Another South Korean report indicates that North Korean state television showed Kim Jong-un falling asleep at a meeting, apparently because he had been drunk the night before. There are widespread rumors in North Korea that Kim enjoys boozing until late into the night.
Meanwhile, the people of North Korea starve. India Times and Daily Star (London) and Esquire
On Wednesday morning, North Korea launched two ballistic missiles. One missile exploded after launch. A second missile traveled 621 miles and landed in the Sea of Japan, 155 miles from Japan's Oga Peninsula, and was on a straight line to strike a Japanese radar station in Shariki. The latest tests show that North Korea is capable of targeting many of South Korea's areas including harbors and airfields with nuclear missiles.
Going back to the beginning of this year, North Korea made its fourth nuclear bomb test on January 6, followed by a long-range missile test on February 7.
These tests were the triggers that convinced South Korea's government, after years of equivocation, to finally approve the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea by the end of the year. ( "28-Jul-16 World View -- China, Japan vociferously object to South Korea's THAAD missile system deployment")
North Korea vowed that it would have a "physical response" response to the THAAD announcement. So there was a missile launch on July 7, a submarine-launched missile test on July 8, though they couldn't have been in reaction to the THAAD announcement, which came on July 8. There was another missile test on July 19. Wednesday's test was the first to come close to actually threatening a target on Japanese soil. North Korea has also issued sharp denunciations of the United States decision to list North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un under new sanctions.
However, some analysts are saying that the missile tests are more than just for show, and are more than just a reaction to the THAAD announcement. The missile tests really ARE missile tests, in the process of North Korea's development of new missile technology, which appears to be improving with time.
North Korea issued a new statement on Wednesday reacting to THAAD: "If the monster known as THAAD comes to coil itself in the South's territory, [the land] will transform itself into a nuclear arms race arena that brings in neighboring powers."
According to Chinese state media:
"The launch, already the third missile fired by the DPRK [North Korea] after Washington and Seoul announced their decision on July 8 to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile shield in South Korea, could easily be interpreted as a protest against the planned installation of the system.It also serves a reminder to policymakers in Seoul that by allowing THAAD deployment, South Korea is putting the cart before the horse in their pursuit of national security, as the key to security lies in good neighborly and friendly relations with its neighbors, rather than a bunch of U.S.-made missiles."
However, that analysis doesn't make sense, as there were missile tests before the THAAD announcement. It's pretty clear that North Korea is going to continue with development of nuclear weapon and missile technology, irrespective anything that South Korea does. Dong-a Ilbo (Seoul) and The Diplomat and UPI and Xinhua
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Aug-16 World View -- North Korean missile strikes sea close to Japan, threatening radar base thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Aug-2016)
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Negative interest rates creating increased anxiety
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Saturday, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas met in Paris with Maryam Rajavi, leader of the National Council of Resistance to Iran (NCRI).
"President Mahmoud Abbas, at the meeting, reiterated the need to combat fundamentalism and terrorism in the region and informed Mrs. Rajavi of the latest developments in the Middle East, in particular regarding Palestine and France's initiative.Mrs. Rajavi expressed gratitude for the solidarity of the Palestinian resistance and its leader with the Iranian people and Resistance. She congratulated the Palestinian government on its victories and expressed hope that the goal of the Palestinian people would be achieved. She reiterated that the Iranian regime is the main instigator of sectarian discord, fundamentalism and terrorism in the entire region, in particular in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Palestine, but she added that today the mullahs' regime is at its weakest and most fragile and vulnerable state. ...
Mrs. Rajavi reiterated that the regime is above all fearful of the solidarity and unity between the Iranian people and Resistance and the countries and nations of the region. Therefore, the countries of the region and the Iranian people and Resistance ought to take the initiative to free the region from the scourge of fundamentalism."
Rajavi has been an enemy of Iran's government for decades -- even before the 1979 revolution -- so nothing that she said was surprising. What was surprising, and what has apparently completely freaked out Iran's government was the cordial meeting between Rajavi and Abbas.
A high Iranian official, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, responded harshly:
"The Palestinians surely regret Mahmoud Abbas’s act of supporting terrorist instead of fighting with it. Mahmoud Abbas’s problem is that he is not focused on restoring the rights of Palestinians.Supporting terrorists instead of fighting them, not only does not lead to the liberation of Quds [Jerusalem] and weakening the Zionist regime, but also makes the Palestinian nation regret."
Another Iranian official said that Abbas was collaborating with the CIA, which is common fare these days in countries that massacre their own people. According to an advisor to Iran's foreign ministry:
"That man [Abbas] is known to us and documents from the US Embassy in Tehran revealed that he has been a collaborator with the Central Intelligence Agency for a long time and his actions in the past decades have proved that."
Mkhaimar Abusada, a university professor in the Gaza Strip, says that this is all about money:
"The Palestinian Authority has made a decision to align itself with the so-called moderate Sunni Arab governments and in the meantime distance itself from Iran and the Shiite camp in the region, because it does not want to lose political and financial support of [the former]. That’s why the PA and President Mahmoud Abbas met with the Iranian opposition leader."
Abusada is correct. This really is all about the money.
As I've written a number of times in the past, the top leadership in Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, are almost completely delusional in many ways.
First, they can't seem to grasp that the younger post-Revolution generations are pro-Western. This was apparent in the early 2000s when young college students were holding massive pro-Western demonstration. Iran's security police bashed, tortured and killed many college students for those protests, but they didn't change opinions. Today, that generation is now 30-40 years old, in positions of power, ready to take over when the old geezer mullahs like Khamenei are gone.
Khamenei and the others are also delusional for believing that they can buy the loyalty of the Palestinians. The Iranians are Shias, and the Palestinians are Sunnis. There isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that the Palestinians would ever remain loyal to Iran. However, Iran for decades has supported both the PA in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza with money and weapons. The PA and Hamas have for decades paid lip service to loyalty to Iran so that the money and weapons would keep coming.
That whole arrangement has been falling apart anyway. When Syria's president Bashar al-Assad in 2011 started conducting extermination campaigns on Sunni civilians, including Palestinians living in refugee camps in Syria, there was the previous close relationship between Hamas and al-Assad was dissolved. And since Iran is supporting al-Assad, there was a big strain on the relationship between Palestinians and Iran.
This game has been going on for five years now, with Iranians paying off the Palestinians like a man might give money and presents to a mistress who treats him with contempt, but she still takes the money.
But this meeting between Rajavi and Abbas may have been a step too far, and may even cause a permanent split between the PA and Iran. This has to come sooner or later, because there's going to be a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and when the Sunni Palestinians are forced to choose between the two, the Palestinians will be on the side of Saudi Arabia.
It seems that every few days I get a fresh opportunity to point this out: Years ago I wrote, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United States and the West will be on the other side. This meeting between Rajavi and Abbas, and the furious reaction from Iran, is yet another event that moves the world along the predicted trend line. Iran News Update (anti-Iran) and Mehr News (Tehran) and Jerusalem Post
Much of Iran's fury at Maryam Rajavi is that she and her husband Massoud are long-time leaders of the terrorist organization Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK or MKO).
MKO was formed in the 1960s in opposition to the government of the Shah of Iran, who was America's ally. MEK was extremely violent, with an ideology that mixed Islamism and Marxism. It conducted numerous terrorist murders of both Iranian government officials and American officials and military in Iran.
MEK supported Iran's Great Islamic Revolution in 1979, helping to replace the Shah with the government of Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini. However, MEK leaders quickly discovered that the Khomeini was actually worse than the Shah's government. In 1981, MEK launched a bombing campaign that killed Iran's president and prime minister. Then, its leadership fled to Europe.
The MEK sided with Iraq in the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and helped Saddam Hussein defeat the Kurds as well as the Iranians. Saddam set up an enclave of Iranian MEK supporters in refugee camps in Iraq.
The US in the 1990s declared the MEK to be a terrorist organization, and after the US won the Iraq war in 2003, the US army disarmed the MEK enclaves, and disbursed many of the refugees to Europe. The MEK has become weaker, as its membership has diminished, and in 2012 the US State Dept. removed the MEK from its list of terrorist organizations.
Iran has frequently attacked the MEK refugee camps in Iraq with missiles, and still consider the MEK, and its leaders Massoud and Maryam Rajavi, to be terrorists. Global Security and Tehran Times
 |
If you pay attention to the Pollyannaish mainstream financial media, then you constantly get the picture that the economy is wonderful, and investments will only keep growing. For example, even when the financial crisis occurred in 2007-2010, and millions of people lost their jobs, went bankrupt and lost their homes, the message was always the same that all losses were in the past.
What's surprising these days is that the mainstream financial media are increasingly airing opinions that something is seriously wrong, and that there is a possible financial crisis in the offing. That has been particularly true since the end of 2015, when global sovereign bond yields started dropping like a stone.
Translation: Every country funds its treasury in several ways, and one way is to borrow money from investors by issuing "sovereign bonds." In "normal" times, investors can typically earn 2-10% interest (yield) per year on these bonds, depending on the country and the length of time before the bond will be redeemed. These sovereign bonds are considered to be the gold standard of risk-free investments, since it's believed and expected that every country will honor its obligations and redeem the bonds when they expire, paying their face value, plus the money earned as interest. However, with the recent arrival of negative yields, the country will pay the investor LESS money than the invested in the first place. So, for example, you pay $1,000 for one of these bonds that expires in two years, and two years later the country redeems it for just $990, and you've paid $10 in negative yield.
The chart above shows that sovereign bond yields have been crashing since November of last year. Globally, the average central bank interest rate is now just 0.5%. This is becoming increasingly alarming to many investors. (Paragraph modified, 4-Aug)
Sovereign bonds are supposed to be the safest investments in the world, but according to Bill Gross, one of the best known investors in the world, sovereign bonds are now too risky:
"Sovereign bond yields at record lows aren’t worth the risk and are therefore not top of my shopping list right now; it’s too risky. Low yields mean bonds are especially vulnerable because a small increase can bring a large decline in price."
This was supported by a release from Fitch Ratings:
"This year's dramatic fall in yields on bonds issued by investment grade sovereigns has again raised the risk that a sudden interest rate rise could impose large market losses on fixed-income investors around the world, Fitch Ratings says. A hypothetical rapid reversion of rates to 2011 levels for $37.7 trillion worth of investment-grade sovereign bonds could drive market losses of as much as $3.8 trillion, according to our analysis."
Most people look at the stock market, and think that everything is rosy, but there's a lot going on that isn't reflected in the stock market. In 2007, it was the collapse of the real estate bubble and, more importantly, the disastrous collapse of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) backed by subprime mortgages. The disaster had already occurred before the stock market started falling.
Bloomberg columnist Lisa Abramowicz on TV on Wednesday commented on the warnings from Bill Gross and Fitch (my transcription):
"There's a high level of concern about how sustainable all of this is - when profits are declining, when you have growth slowing, when you have stimulus efforts that are not working and that are running out of steam -- how long can this last? But at the same time, it's very hard to see what could reverse it. The only thing that people possibly can point to is inflation, or if some country decides not to pay back their debt, or just forgive it, or come up with some kind of engineering that creates a technical problem."
As I've been writing for years, inflation or hyperinflation is not going to happen because the velocity of money keeps plummeting. ( "11-Mar-16 World View -- In desperation move, European Central Bank further lowers negative interest rates")
According to Abramowitz's contacts, the only thing that can stop the current plunge in bond yields is for some country to decide not to pay back their debt -- essentially to declare sovereign bankruptcy. In other words, there's a major financial crisis coming no matter what. Bloomberg and Fitch Ratings
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Aug-16 World View -- Iran furious at Palestinian meeting with Iran opposition group thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Aug-2016)
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US military in Libya launches airstrikes against ISIS
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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More than 1,500 migrants were rescued on Sunday off the coast of Libya by Italy's coast guard. That brings to 8,000 the number that were rescued in five days.
The EU-Turkey refugee deal has dramatically decreased the number of migrants traveling from Turkey to Greece across the Aegean Sea, but the flow of migrants from Libya to Italy is still continuing at full speed. Since the beginning of this year, Italy's coast guard has recued 94,000 migrants off the coast of Libya, while 3,000 have died attempting the trip. RTE (Ireland)
The US military has opened up a new front against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), this time in Libya. The US is already fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
The airstrikes come at the request of Libya's "Government of National Accord" (GNA).
As we reported in January, Western countries felt that it was urgent to mount a military action in Libya by the beginning of March. ( "6-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France preparing new Libya military offensive early in 2016") However, this military action was delayed because Italy, Libya's former colonial power, has always insisted that Libya's government had to approve any Western military action before it could occur. This has been impossible, since there are two major governments in Libya, one in Tripoli in charge of western Libya and one in Tobruk in charge of eastern Libya. There are also nearly 2,000 militias running different parts of Libya.
The United Nations approved Government of National Accord (GNA), which has been meeting in Tripoli, but has received only lukewarm support from the government in Tobruk. However, it now appears that the GNA has resolved its internal disputes at least partially, to the extent of permitting the US airstrikes, although there have been previous airstrikes not approved by the GNA.
Monday's attack was the third element, Operation Odyssey Lightning of a three-phase series of operations against ISIS, planned and controlled by the US military's AFRICOM (Africa Command). The first element of this three-phase plan was Operation Odyssey Resolve, consisting of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance flights designed to counter violent extremism in Libya. The second phase, Operation Junction Serpent, provided targeting information. The third phase, which began over the weekend, includes strike aircraft hitting those targets.
Few details were given about future US military plans in Libya, and no end date for the airstrikes was provided. The airstrikes may signal the start of a U.S. broader mission to support the Libyan government. Military Times and Reuters and Long War Journal
Russia's air force is bombing hospitals and civilian neighborhoods in Aleppo in order to drive civilians out of the city into refugee camps. Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that people staying behind will be treated as terrorists:
"We believe that those who remain in the positions occupied by ... terrorists, despite numerous months of calls to leave [the areas], don’t differ much from terrorists."
There are hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, including women and children, living in Aleppo, and no more than a few dozen have been leaving. Russia wants to drive civilians out of Aleppo into refugee camps where they'll be vulnerable to further air strikes. As we wrote in February, Russia is following a policy used against Grozny in the 1990s war against Chechnya. ( "19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model'")
Under this policy, Russia bombs schools, hospitals and civilian neighborhoods, in order to create a refugee crisis, and to empty the urban residential areas. Once that is achieved, heavy weapons can be deployed to eradicate the remaining population, entailing widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure.
Flattening Aleppo, killing hundreds of thousands of people, and taking control of the ashes of Aleppo would still be an enormous victory for Syria's president Bashar al-Assad who began a genocidal policy of exterminating Sunni Muslims in Syria after they began peaceful demonstrations at the beginning of the "Arab Spring" in 2011.
Fifteen years ago, the United Nations called Grozny, Chechnya, "the most destroyed city on earth." In the aftermath of the destruction of Grozny, Russia rebuilt the city frenetically so that its destruction would be forgotten. But now, Russia apparently plans to make Aleppo the new most destroyed city on earth. Russia Today and Daily Beast and BBC (3-Mar-2007)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Aug-16 World View -- Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Aug-2016)
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India and Saudi Arabia move to warm relations with each other
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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About 10,000 migrant workers from India are starving and living in inhumane conditions in Saudi Arabia because they've received no pay for seven months and are unable to buy food. Many have lost their jobs, while others are continuing to work but are unpaid nonetheless.
Most are construction workers, but many large construction projects have been canceled or cut back by the Saudi government because sharply falling oil prices have caused a financial crisis in the Saudi kingdom.
India's foreign minister Sushma Swaraj issued a statement:
"Large number of Indians have lost their jobs in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The employers have not paid wages, closed down their factories. The number of Indian workers facing food crisis in Saudi Arabia is over ten thousand."
Over the weekend, India's Embassy in Riyadh and its Consulate in Jeddah distributed 15,475 kg of food to Indian migrants in five labor camps in cities across Saudi Arabia over the weekend, to keep them from starving. There are plans to bring thousands of these workers back to India by the end of August.
There are about 3 million Indians living and working in Saudi Arabia, most of them as blue-collar workers.
Separately, the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) has suspended the rights of Saudi companies to hire Filipino workers. More than 11,000 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in Saudi Arabia have been laid off and are not receiving salaries. Sky News and The Hindu and Manila Bulletin
India's Minister of State for External Affairs V K Singh will travel to Saudi Arabia to assess this week to assess the severity of the food crisis facing the jobless migrants from India. He'll meet with Saudi officials, and the meetings are expected to be cordial, despite the difficulty of the situation.
Recently, Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud gave India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi a very warm welcome when he came to visit in April. Modi and the Saudis signed five new bilateral agreements to improve relations, covering intelligence sharing on terrorism financing, increasing private investment and enhancing defense cooperation.
India has to juggle several partnerships in the Mideast, including relationships with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran, and Israel. India receives 58% of its oil imports and 88% of its liquefied natural gas imports from the Mideast. There are 7.3 million migrant Indians working in the region, and they sent over $36 billion in remittances back to their families in India in 2015.
The relationship is important to Saudi Arabia as well. India has huge Muslim populations, both Sunni and Shia, making Saudi Arabia a major tourist attraction. In particular, over 400,000 Indians visit Mecca each year for the Muslim rituals (Hajj and Umrah).
There is also a political reason why Saudi and Indian relations have been warming: Pakistan.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are very closely tied together, but the Saudis are still extremely angry at Pakistan's government because Pakistan refused to contribute any troops last year to the Saudi war against the Houthis in Yemen. So for the Saudis, a relationship with India is a way of saying to Pakistan that they're not the only dance partner.
India has been at war with Pakistan several times in the last 50 years, and tensions are very high in the disputed border regions. ( "21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue") So for India, a relationship with the Saudis is a way of telling the Pakistanis that perhaps they can't count on Saudi support after all.
There are some similar issues with Iran, but in reverse. India and Iran have very close relations, while Saudi Arabia and Iran were close to war earlier this year. ( "4-Jan-16 World View -- Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran as violent Shia protests spread around region")
Regular readers know that warm relations between Saudi Arabia and India are counter-trend, as Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United States and the West will be on the other side. ( "15-Jul-2015 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal") So the warm Saudi-India relationship will not continue.
Readers who find this confusing should recall that Germany and Britain were close trading partners up until World War II began. Also, Russia and the US were enemies before and after WW II, but were allies during the war. The way to understand this is that during "normal" times, politicians can make whatever policies they want, even total nonsense policies. But during a generational crisis war like WW II, when the nation and its way of life are facing existential threats, then policies must be chosen that guarantee the survival of the nation, even if it means reversing every policy that prevailed before the war. Indian Express and Al Monitor (3-Apr) and Brookings (1-Apr)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Aug-16 World View -- Migrant Indian workers in Saudi Arabia face starvation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Aug-2016)
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