Dynamics
|
|
Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
| HOME WEB LOG COMMENT FORUM | |
| DOWNLOADS FOURTH TURNING ARCHIVE ABOUT | |
Australia proposes lifetime settlement ban on illegal immigrants
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Australia's prime minister Malcolm Turnbull announced plans to introduce legislation that will ban illegal immigrants who arrive by boat from ever being allowed into Australia again, even legally. The bill is intended to target human traffickers, since their potential customers will know that they will never have a chance of living in Australia. According to Turnbull, "These people smugglers are the worst criminals imaginable. They have a multibillion-dollar business. It is a battle of will. We have to be very determined to say no to their criminal plans."
They will have a lifetime ban of coming to Australia, even as a tourist or as the spouse of an Australian citizen. The only exception will be children brought illegally by boat by their parents.
The proposed law is retroactive to July 19, 2013, because that is when the former prime minister Kevin Rudd said: “As of today, asylum seekers who come here by boat without a visa will never be settled in Australia.” That means that the migrants currently imprisoned on Manus or Nauru will be forbidden from ever reaching Australia.
In past years, thousands of refugees from Asia have traveled by boat to Australia, often after paying huge sums to human traffickers, hoping to resettle there. Australia has dealt with the situation, starting in 2001, by setting up two "detention centers" on Pacific islands, one on Papua New Guinea's (PNG's) Manus Island, and one on the island nation of Nauru, under agreements reached with both countries. Australia intercepts the boat people while at sea, and redirects them to the detention centers. These two filthy, rat-infested detention centers have been enormously controversial, with numerous stories of beatings, torture, and sexual abuse at the detention centers. The detention centers were shut down in 2007, but reinstated when the number of refugees and asylum seekers surged again into the thousands.
The detention center policy has been extremely successful, in that the number of migrants reaching Australia has been sharply reduced. However, the policy has been widely condemned as cruel to people fleeing poverty and violence, and as a violation of international laws. The proposed law will receive substantial opposition during attempts to get it passed. Australian AP and Sydney Morning Herald
Related Articles
Whenever there's a sudden change in public mood in any country, it's of interest to Generational Dynamics, because it's often a sign that generational pressures have been building, and the change in public mood is caused by the latest rise of a new generation.
Whatever the outcome of Friday's announcement by FBI Director James B. Comey potentially reopening the Clinton e-mail investigation, whether it helps or hurts Clinton or Trump, the unexpected media storm that followed the announcement is potentially significant.
My personal belief is that Comey made his announcement to cover his ass, for whatever reason. I also believe that he made the announcement on Friday afternoon expecting that, like almost all Friday afternoon announcements, it would be forgotten almost immediately. But that's not what happened. Instead of being forgotten, Comey's announcement is continuing to gain coverage in the mainstream media, which is a major surprise.
The standard is that massive criminal activity and corruption by politicians in Washington is simply ignored. As I've been writing for years, thousands of Gen-X bankers purposely created trillions of dollars worth of fraudulent subprime mortgage backed synthetic securities, and then sold them to investors, knowing that they're fraudulent, creating a massive financial crisis that made millions of people bankrupt and/or homeless. And yet, not a single one of them has ever been prosecuted, but instead they've gotten off by contributing a fraction of their fraudulent gains as contributions to the Obama administration. And in Congress, as Peter Schweizer showed in 2011 appearing on 60 Minutes, Congressmen and Senators of both parties are using inside information on secret lawmaking negotiations to line their pockets with huge profits in the stock markets. Ordinary people would go to jail for insider trading for this sleazy behavior, but Congress has conveniently exempted itself, allowing it to commit crimes and enrich themselves on a daily basis and get away with it.
The massive corruption and criminal activity in Washington is far greater than anything in my lifetime, much greater than ever occurred in Richard Nixon's administration. But today, the Washington standard is that criminal activities go unpunished. In the case of Hillary Clinton's e-mail activities, the mainstream media are so totally in the tank for Clinton, no longer even pretending to be unbiased journalists, that it's a shock to everyone that the stories around Comey's announcement are not only continuing, but growing.
The Republicans are gloating of course, because this is so unexpected. The Democrats are apoplectic with rage because they're suffering from a case of cognitive dissonance and are going through the five stages of grief, as all their fundamental beliefs about their right to commit criminal activity with impunity are suddenly being challenged.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's interesting here is not whether Clinton is guilty or innocent, but why there is a sudden change in public mood that might mean that her allegedly criminal activities might actually have consequences this time. It may actually be possible that after years of not caring about corruption and criminal activity in Washington, the public suddenly does care. If true, this change would be extremely significant.
That someone in Washington, and Clinton in particular, could possibly face this kind of hostile media scrutiny may represent a major change in public mood that will be seen in other ways in the months to come, no matter who becomes president. Washington Post and Leon Festinger - Cognitive Dissonance Theory
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Oct-16 World View -- Clinton e-mail media storm shows sudden change in public mood thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
ISIS using tens of thousands of men, women and children
as human shields in Mosul
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The Iran-backed Shia militias fighting in support of Iraq's army to liberate Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), claim that they're on a mission by themselves to recapture the nearby town of Tal Afar.
Ahmad al-Asadi, the spokesman for the Hashd al-Shaabi militia, or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), said:
The front that has been tasked to the Hashd al-Shaabi is one of the most significant and most dangerous fronts in this operation.[The PMF] are tasked with one of the widest areas, ranging from Qayyara in the west, Tal Afar in the north to the Mosul outskirts in the east and some areas on the Syrian-Iraqi border to the west."
Tal Afar is about 55 km (35 miles) northwest of Mosul, and al-Shaabi indicated that the goals was to cut off any option of retreat by ISIS into Syria, or to prevent any reinforcements from arriving from Syria.
As we've discussed previously, there has been a debate over whether to leave open the roads west of Mosul, so that ISIS fighters will take advantage of it and flee without a fight to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria.
The claims by Shia militia (PMF) spokesman Ahmad al-Asadi seems to support closing the corridor to the West.
On the other hand, the active involvement of Iran-backed Shia militias would seem to violate Iraqi government promises to Turkey that Shia forces would be limited in their activities, to prevent sectarian clashes.
But all of al-Asadi's claims are being disputed by Turkey's military, according to a report in Daily Sabah:
"As reports from various sources indicate that Shiite militia groups have launched an operation Saturday to capture predominantly Turkmen town of Tal Afar in northern Iraq from Daesh, Turkish military sources said that these groups are not near the town and reports are part of a psychological warfare attempt."
The report suggests that the operation to recapture Mosul is not going as well as planned, and the claims that the PMF are about to capture Tal Afar are an attempt to fool both the international commit and ISIS.
This report is consistent with suggestions in other reports that the Iraqi army's advance on Mosul is stalled, and that the Mosul offensive has virtually ground to a halt. AFP and Reuters and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Debka
Related Articles
According to the United Nations Human Rights office, ISIS has abducted tens of thousands of men, women and children from areas around Mosul and are using them as "human shields." Describing it as "ISIS's depraved, cowardly strategy," they are being kept near military installations, to prevent the Iraqi army from advancing.
The UN says that the ISIS stronghold of Hamam al-Alil used to have a population of 23,000, but now has a population of 60,000, in order to slow an Iraqi army attack.
In addition, the UN is expressing "deep concern" at reports that some individuals in the areas south of Mosul have embarked on revenge killings and had vowed on television that there will be “eye for eye revenge” against those who sided with ISIS. United Nations and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Retired Army Gen. David H. Petraeus was once commander of the U.S.-led forces in Iraq, and he led the troop surge in 2007 that expelled Al-Qaeda in Iraq. So he completely understands the issues that the Iraqi army coalition is facing in its attempts to expel ISIS from Mosul.
According to Petraeus, the Mosul campaign is unfolding "in quite a methodical way," and is a "textbook example" of such an operation. But he points out that the chaotic nature of the operation is caused by ethnic differences in both the Iraqi security forces and the millions of civilians being liberated:
"The Iraqi security forces [are] this mix of Iraqi army, Iraqi police, Kurdish peshmerga, the Iraqi counter-terrorism service, the Iraqi air force, popular mobilization units — some Shia Arab from the south, some Sunni Arab from the tribes of Nineveh province. And the challenge is going to be, first of all, to keep all of them pulling in the same direction. ...As we used to say when I was privileged to be the commander there, Nineveh province has the most diverse human terrain in all of Iraq – Sunni Arab majority to be sure, but also Shia Arabs, numerous Kurdish communities, and they are broken out into several different political parties.
There are Yazidis. There are Shabak. There are Christians. And there are Turkmen Shias, as well as Turkmen Sunnis, and this explains why President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan of Turkey has been so vocal about the fact that the Turkish forces needed to be on the outskirts of Mosul should take some part in this effort."
The situation in the Mosul operation is even worse, according to Israeli analyst Anshel Pfeffer:
"On the ground, however, totally separate battles are being fought out. The Iraqi Army, the Peshmerga, Shi’ite-Iraqi militias and United States Special Forces teams are all rival forces, albeit with a common enemy, for now. They are all fighting ISIS while pursuing very different agenda.The Iraqi Army are not even allowed into the territory of the Kurdish Regional Government without special authorization, and the Peshmerga constantly complain of how almost all the new weapons supplied by the Americans have gone to Baghdad’s forces, with the Kurdish fighters receiving only scraps. ...
“The Americans don’t learn,” says one Peshmerga officer. “The Iraqi army will just run away, leaving their new American weapons to ISIS. Just as they did two years ago.”"
Petraeus and Pfeffer agree that all the different armies and militias have a common objective to eject ISIS, and they'll succeed. But with growing Kurdish nationalism and growing Turkish nationalism, it won't be long before the different armies are fighting each other. LA Times and Haaretz
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Oct-16 World View -- Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul from ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
China permits Philippines to fish in Scarborough Shoal
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
China now has a need of a "strongman leader" or "Great Leader," the first since Mao Zedong, according to Chinese state media, so that China can again rise to greatness.
Apparently that wish has been granted by last week's four-day sixth plenum of the Central Committee, which issued a statement granting China's president Xi Jinping the role of "core of the leadership," giving Xi unchallenged personal authority in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Ever since taking office in 2012, Xi has led a breathtaking anti-corruption drive that has punished more than one million officials for such crimes as bribery and abuse of power. Xi's opponents claim that the anti-corruption campaign was really a purge of political rivals, which is certainly true, given that Xi is a politician.
According to professor David Zweig of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology professor, Xi has been making powerful enemies:
"The risk is that you will take power to yourself, undermine the power bases of the people beneath you. ...Everyone in the Politburo has their networks, even in the Standing Committee of the Politburo, so if you give all the power to one guy you give him the power to push your people out and push his people through.
"Entrenched resistance was strong but if you really want to see China reform, you want to take some power away (from those) who protect their vested interests, like the state enterprises."
The contrast is to Xi's predecessor, Hu Jintao, who did not have the "core of the leadership" blessing, but instead was "first among equals," meaning that he had to rule by consensus. Xi has taken advantage of the anti-corruption drive to push his political enemies out and replace them with his acolytes, which means that he can rule in a dictatorial manner, without as much of a consensus.
As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that China is headed for two wars -- an internal civil war, the first major civil war since the Communist revolution, and an external war, leading a world war with the United States, their first world war since World War II. These two wars are not inconsistent with each other, any more than the Communist Revolution and World War II were not inconsistent with each other. Xi can similarly expect to be fighting two wars -- an internal civil war and an external world war with the United States. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Washington Post and SCMP (23-Oct) and BBC (24-Oct)
Related Articles
A week ago, Philippine president Rodrigo R. Duterte visited China and said "I announce my separation from the United States. Both in military... not maybe social, but economics also, America has lost. I will be dependent on you." This was after calling President Obama the "son of a whore."
Now China's president Xi Jinping has apparently waved his magic wand and granted a reward to Duterte -- China's warships have withdrawn from Scarborough Shoal, allowing Philippines fishermen to fish there for the first time since 2012.
Scarborough Shoal is an island off the coast of Manila and far from China's shores. Philippine fishermen fished there for centuries, until blocked by the Chinese.
In its July 12 ruling on the South China Sea, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration eviscerated China's claims to the South China Sea, and said:
"[The Tribunal] FINDS that Scarborough Shoal has been a traditional fishing ground for fishermen of many nationalities and DECLARES that China has, through the operation of its official vessels at Scarborough Shoal from May 2012 onwards, unlawfully prevented fishermen from the Philippines from engaging in traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal."
So China has rewarded the Philippines by granting to them rights that they were legally entitled to anyway.
Among the Philippine people, 54% have a favorable view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States, so it won't be very long before Duterte is forced to make some policy change that will infuriate the Chinese, and the warships could come back quickly. To paraphrase an old saying, Duterte should remember this: "The Xi giveth, and the Xi taketh away." Manila Bulletin and Reuters and The Diplomat
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Oct-16 World View -- China's president Xi Jinping given dictatorial powers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Destruction of Calais camp called 'really dangerous' for children
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
France has declared "Mission Accomplished!" after demolishing "The Jungle," the refugee camp in Calais, and bussing some 4,000 migrants to 280 reception centers across the country after being separated into different categories – single men, families, vulnerable people and unaccompanied minors.
According to Fabienne Buccio, a local official, "There are no more migrants in the camp. Our mission has been fulfilled."
However, not every tent or shanty was actually "demolished." A lot of them were burnt to the ground by the refugees themselves, apparently as a way of saying "goodbye."
And a more serious reason why the mission hasn't really been accomplished is that there were 7,000 to 10,000 refugees in the camp. That means that several thousand refugees have fled from the camp, and are hiding out in order to stay near Calais. Many have simply gone to another refugee camp in nearby Dunkirk. On top of that, new refugees are arriving every day.
The people in the camp are escaping war or poverty mostly from Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria. The reason that migrants have come to Calais in the first place is because it's near the Eurotunnel that connects France to Britain underneath the English Channel. Britain is a favorite destination because of liberal welfare and medical services policies, and because they prefer an English-speaking country. So having been desperate enough to have risked their lives for months to reach Calais, they are going to resist being bussed far away to another part of France. The Local (France) and Express (London) and France 24
Concerns are being raised for the welfare of unaccompanied children. Although many children were bussed to reception centers, it's believed that there are hundreds of unaccompanied children who were forced to flee on Tuesday and Wednesday during the demolition and fire.
Many children were unaccompanied because they had been sent from Syria or Afghanistan to try to reach family members in the UK, leading some activists to claim that Britain is responsible for these children. According to Robert Innes, the Anglican Bishop of Gibraltar in Europe: "They are gravely at risk. At a time when the UK is rightly spending millions on investigating historic child abuse, it is striking that there is a massive influx of traumatized children to Europe at risk of current abuse, and for whom we are not yet doing enough." Church Times and CNN
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Oct-16 World View -- Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The Gambia follows Burundi and S. Africa in leaving the International Criminal Court
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Spain on Wednesday asked for clarification on the intentions of a Russian fleet that was scheduled to dock for refueling in Spain's port of Ceuta between October 28 and November 2. Spain's foreign ministry issued this statement:
"Given the information which appeared on the possibility that these ships would participate in supporting military action in the Syrian city of Aleppo, the ministry of foreign affairs requested clarification from the embassy of the Russian Federation in Madrid."
Russian fleets had been refueling in Ceuta for years, but hostility is growing in Europe over the genocidal acts of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, and most recently his plans to destroy the city of Aleppo, killing as many civilians as possible, possibly including as many as hundreds of thousands of women and children.
The Russian fleet, which includes an aircraft carrier, had put on a great show last week by traveling through the English Channel, instead of taking the usual route north of Scotland. It's destination is to be a port in Syria, and it's suspected that Russia plans to launch additional bombers from the fleet to take part in the Aleppo slaughter. This prompted Nato to put pressure on Spain to demand a clarification from Russia.
Russia responded to Spain's request for clarification by withdrawing its request to refuel in Ceuta. Gibraltar Chronicle and BBC
Related Articles
First, two weeks ago, Burundi announced it was withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague. Then, two days ago, South Africa also announced its withdrawal.
On Wednesday, The Gambia became the third African country in quick succession to announce its withdrawal, calling it the "International Caucasian Court" because of its targeting of African countries.
Burundi and The Gambia have many similarities. Both are being led by presidents (Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia) who have been in power for years, and who are using violence, torture and mass slaughter of the opposition to stay in power. That's why both countries are leaving the ICC.
South Africa is in a different category. South Africa has been a democracy since 1994, when the first election was held following the end of apartheid. The African National Congress (ANC) political party has won every national election since then, but opposition political parties have increasingly been scoring victories in regional elections, to the point where ANC leaders fear they'll lose the next national election.
The current ANC leader Jacob Zuma is being widely criticized as corrupt and unaccountable, and is being blamed for ANC's losses in a recent election. The ANC is badly split, and Jacob Zuma's unilateral decision to withdraw South Africa from the ICC raises suspicions that he's about to take some steps similar t those taken by Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia to stay in power. Daily Maverick (South Africa) and BBC and Mail and Guardian (South Africa) and Sowetan Live
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Oct-16 World View -- Spain blocks Russia fleet refueling stop over planned bombing in Aleppo Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) may be getting revenge for police attack on leader
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
At least 61 people, mostly fresh police recruits, were killed and 117 injured on Monday night in a terror attack on a Police Training cottage in Quetta, the capital of the province of Balochistan in Pakistan. The attack began with gunfire at 11 pm and continued for several hours, but most of the deaths were caused when one of the terrorists exploded his suicide vest. The attackers are thought to be Afghan Uzbeks. One of them was a 12-year-old boy.
The attack is being blamed on the Al Alami offshoot of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), a terror group that has vowed to exterminate all Shias in Pakistan, and has carried out numerous terrorist actions targeting Shias. However, no Pakistan terror group has claimed credit. However, LeJ is also thought to have links to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and so ISIS has been putting out press releases claiming credit for the attack. ISIS seems anxious to take credit for every terror attack, whether they have anything to do with it or not.
Another possibility, though less likely, is that the terror attack is related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which over ten years will build a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect western Chinese cities to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean. On Saturday, two Pakistan Coast Guard officers were gunned down in a region close to the Gwadar sea port, and there's a possibility, considered less likely, that Monday's terror attack was connected to the CPEC project.
Whoever the perpetrator, and whatever the motives, the attack is sending shock waves among the people of Pakistan, who are blaming the police and the government for the continuing stream of terror attacks. In past decades, Pakistan's government has supported Taliban terror groups who were attacking targets in India and Afghanistan, and now those terror groups are attacking targets in Pakistan itself. This new terror attack is certain to renew the "good terrorists versus bad terrorists" debate in Pakistan. Reuters and AFP and Reuters and Dunya News (Pakistan)
Related Articles
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) is thought to be the perpetrator of Monday's attack on the police academy. Although the ethnicity of the victims has not been reported, the fact that it took place in Balochistan suggests that most of the cadets were Shias.
Lashkar-e-Janghvi has repeatedly stated that its goal is the extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. An LeJ statement issued in 2011 says:
"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan. Like in the past, [our] successful Jihad against the Hazaras in Pakistan and, in particular, in Quetta is ongoing and will continue. We will make Pakistan their graveyard-- their houses will be destroyed by bombs and suicide bombers. ... Jihad against the Shia Hazaras has now become our duty. ... We will rest only after hoisting the flag of true Islam on the land of the pure -- Pakistan."
However, there's an additional possible motivation for LeJ. LeJ's leader Malik Ishaq was killed while in a police convoy in July of last year. The police said that the convoy was attacked by 12-15 gunmen, and that Ishaq and his two sons were killed in the subsequent shootout, but LeJ has claimed that the gunfight was staged.
So it's possible that LeJ attacked the policy academy to get revenge for the killing of its Malik Ishaq. Dawn (Pakistan) and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Oct-16 World View -- Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror attack in Balochistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
In Syria, Turkey attacks both Kurds and ISIS near Aleppo and Mosul
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
There is a growing perception in Turkey that the Mideast borders, especially those of Syria and Iraq, are being redesigned, and Turkey wants to be sure to recover some of land lost in World War I.
In Iraq, Mosul is a historically Sunni city and was part of the Ottoman empire, and any attempt to change is demographic composition would be a direct threat to Turkey's security. The concern is that the population would be diluted by Kurds or by Shia Muslims coming from Iran.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in a war of words with Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who demanded that Turkey withdraw its troops and tanks from Iraq. Recently, Erdogan responded to al-Abadi:
"You are not my interlocutor. You are not at my level. You are not my equivalent. You are not of the same quality as me.Your screaming and shouting in Iraq is of no importance to us. You should know that we will go our own way."
Turkey has for weeks been training Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Iraq to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) near Mosul. On Monday, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkish artillery fire is being used to aid the Kurdish Peshmerga forces fighting ISIS, and four Turkish fighter jets are on standby to take part in air operations.
Al-Abadi has repeatedly said that Iraq does not want Turkey's help. Turkey continues to insist that it must take part in the recapture of Mosul from ISIS to protect its own interests. Iraq's fear is that Erdogan will get his wish, and that part of Iraq, especially the region around Mosul, will become part of Turkey. Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and BBC
Related Articles
Turkey's military says that it struck dozens of ISIS and Kurdish YPG militia targets on Monday in northern Syria, about 35 miles from Aleppo, as part of Operation Euphrates Shield. Last week, strikes by Turkish warplanes killed 200 PKK/PYD 'terrorists' in northern Syria, according to the military.
Turkey said that the strikes were in the support of the Free Syrian Army, and were necessary to prevent the Kurds taking control of the entire region in northern Syria along the Turkish border, with the intention of creating a Kurdish state called Rojava. When Operation Euphrates Shield began three months ago, Erdogan said that stopping a Kurdish state would be a principal objective, along with liberating Syrian cities that had been captured by ISIS.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah says that Turkey's involvement in Syria and Iraq is a thinly veiled attempt to take control of both Aleppo and Mosul.
Syria's military calls Turkey's action a "serious escalation," and a gross violation of Syria’s sovereignty.
Turkey's objectives are hardly secret, as Erdogan is pursuing the policies he's stated several times recently. What I'm waiting for is to see whether Turkey will try to break the siege of Aleppo being implemented by Syria's army in preparation for massive slaughter of Sunni civilians. That would bring Turkey into direct confrontation with Russia, just as the two countries have been cozying up to each other recently. Reuters and Anadolu (Ankara) and AP and Al Masdar News (Syria)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The fallacy of prosecuting war crimes
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A week after Burundi announced it was withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, South Africa's president Jacob Zuma announced that it would do the same. In each case, the withdrawal becomes effective one year after the ICC receives notice.
South Africa's action was triggered by Burundi's withdrawal, and also because the ICC criticized Zuma's administration for failing to arrest Sudan's leader Omar al-Bashir when he visited Johannesburg for an African Union summit last year.
The ICC was set up in 2002 by the Rome Statute, which 123 countries have ratified, although the US is notably absent. Its purpose is to bring to justice those responsible for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes -- terms that are all defined in detail in the Rome Statute.
However, in its 16 year existence, it's only prosecuted African states. Since 2014, the African Union has urged member states not to co-operate with the ICC, accusing it of being racially biased against Africa. Uganda, Kenya and Namibia have also discussed withdrawing from the ICC.
For South Africa, the government is currently in chaos because of corruption accusations leveled at Jacob Zuma. Zuma's opposition Democratic Alliance is opposed to the decision, as described by James Selfe, a leading official:
"The Democratic Alliance is disgusted at this decision. We think it sends out an entirely incorrect message around our commitment to human rights and our abhorrence of human rights abuses and of genocide, and we believe that it would set back our foreign policy and the way in which South Africa is viewed in a very fundamental way.We also believe that the decision itself has been taken in a way which is unconstitutional, unlawful. Accordingly, we will we will be lodging papers in the constitutional court on Monday morning seeking the court’s ruling seeking that it reviews and sets aside this decision by the South African government."
According to activist opposition leader Mosiuoa Lekota:
"This government continues to destroy all the good and hard work that the former Presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki spent many years to build. Now everything has been thrown out of the window."Pulling out of the ICC will expose our children to war crimes in South Africa without recourse to a higher court."
Selfe added that a decision to withdraw from the ICC would require a vote by the parliament. Times Live (South Africa) and VOA and BBC and Foreign Policy
Related Articles
It's just an accident of history that the ICC appears to be biased against Africans. There have been war crimes trials against other nations, but they've taken place in other courts. The African nation whining about bias know this, but they're looking for an excuse to avoid being held responsible for their crimes, even though it's the victims of the crimes that really want to see the court trials take place.
There are trials targeting the Khmer Rouge for their alleged war crimes in Cambodia's "killing fields" war in the 1970s, but that trial is being held in the "Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia" (ECCC) in Angk Snuol, Cambodia.
There's a trial targeting Ratko Mladic for atrocities committed at the 1995 Srebrenica massacre in the Bosnian war, but that trial is being conducted in a special court called the "International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia" in The Hague.
There were trials in 1945 for Nazi war criminals, but they were held in special courts in Nuremberg, Germany. Japan's war crimes trials were held in 1946 in the International Military Tribunal for the Far East (IMTFE) in Tokyo.
So, taken as a whole, war crimes courts have certainly not specifically targeted Africa. Deutsche Welle and Human Rights Watch and Rome Statute creating the ICC
Related Articles
Since World War II, this idea of prosecuting genocide and war crimes has been latched on to as a way to save the world. Ever since the Nuremberg trials of Nazi leaders, "Never again!" must have uttered by politicians thousands of times, referring to the Holocaust.
And yet the Nuremberg trials didn't prevent Mao Zedong from killing 45 million people in the Great Leap Forward genocide (1958-59); didn't prevent Pol Pot from killing 8 million people in the Cambodia Killing Fields genocide (1975-79); didn't prevent 800,000 people from being killed in the Rwanda genocide (1994); didn't prevent Robert Mugabe from committing the Operation Gukurahundi genocide in Zimbabwe (1984); and isn't preventing Bashar al-Assad from committing genocide in Syria today, with the help of war criminals Vladimir Putin of Russia and Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei of Iran. (Paragraph corrected, 25-Oct)
Shakespeare wrote in Venus and Adonis: "Were beauty under twenty locks kept fast, Yet love breaks through and picks them all at last," a couplet that's often summarized as "Love laughs at locksmiths." Just as love laughs at locksmiths, war crimes laugh at the ICC.
No one could seriously believe that Adolf Hitler would have cancelled the Holocaust out of fear of being prosecuted by some court. Or that Mao Zedong would have canceled the Great Leap Forward for a similar reason. The whole concept is absurd.
Love, sex and genocide are all part of the base human DNA. They do not respect skin color, geography, race or religion. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, they are part of every human's core makeup, and they are the way the world works, whether we like it or not.
So the politicians in South Africa and Burundi see Bashar al-Assad in a full-scale genocide in Syria, and they're asking, "Why the hell is the ICC picking on us Africans? Go pick on Bashar al-Assad, and just let us go on committing atrocities, torturing, mutilating and exterminating people we dislike, and stop bothering us about it." Shakespeare: Venus and Adonis
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Oct-16 World View -- South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Criminal Court into doubt thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Philippines president Duterte apparently cedes Scarborough Shoal to China
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Media headlines in the past couple of days have been saying things like "Duterte's flip-flop into bed with China is a disaster for the United States" and "While we watched the debate, the Philippines aligned with China."
The headlines are referring to the new Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte. He announced a cutoff of relations with the United States first by calling President Obama the "son of a whore." Then he visited Beijing, where he was given a red carpet welcome by China's president Xi Jinping, and made the following announcement to thunderous applause in the Great Hall of the People:
"Your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States. Both in military... not maybe social, but economics also, America has lost. I will be dependent on you. ...I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world — China, Philippines and Russia.
Americans are loud, sometimes rowdy. Their larynx is not adjusted to civility."
In a world where politicians are constantly making ridiculous statements, this isn't the most ridiculous recent statement (pretty much anything from Vladimir Putin is worse), but it's close.
For one thing, the Philippines does $24 billion in annual trade with the US. For another thing, the Philippines has a mutual defense treaty with the US which has been in force since 1951 where both countries pledge to come to each other’s defense in the event of an armed attack, and Duterte alone does not have the power to abrogate the treaty, nor would the Philippine people want him to. LA Times and Inquirer (Philippines)
Related Articles
As I've been writing for years, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history.
And in this case, the will of the people is pretty evident from polls conducted by Pew Global research: Among the Philippine people, 54% have a favorable view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States. A recent survey shows that 55% of Philippines people have "little trust" in China, while only 11% feel the same about the United States.
In fact, Philippine senators crossed party lines and warned Duterte to back down. According to the Senate minority leader:
"Any drastic shift in our foreign policy direction should be well-thought-out and not simply blurted out. It should be a product of deep study and wide discussion. Because of its far-reaching implications, it cannot be an announce now, study later thing.Yes, our relations with the United States may not be perfect. But a country which has illegally built a great wall of sand in our seas is not, and far from, the epitome of a good friend either."
Other politicians called him a madman and delusional. Duterte's spokesman "clarified" Duterte's statement by saying that he just wanted to "separate the nation from dependence on the U.S. and the West and rebalance economic and military relations with Asian neighbors" like China, Japan and South Korea.
The Chinese people are skeptical as well. China's politicians and media have remained mostly silent about Duterte's comments, but people on social networks see it as a ploy to get investments and loans from China. Some likened his “separation” from the United States to a new social phenomenon in China in which people make use of fake divorces to get around restrictive regulations in order to obtain a second housing loan.
So Duterte's announcement present an interesting case study for Generational Dynamics. China and the Philippines will never be friends, because their respective populations hate each other. It's not the politicians who decide policies, but the people. Inquirer (Philippines) and Pew Global - Philippines - China and Pew Global - Philippines - US and International Business Times (Singapore)
In his trip to China last week, Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte may have ceded Scarborough Shoal to China.
In its July 12 ruling on the South China Sea, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration eviscerated China's claims to the South China Sea, and said:
"[The Tribunal] FINDS that Scarborough Shoal has been a traditional fishing ground for fishermen of many nationalities and DECLARES that China has, through the operation of its official vessels at Scarborough Shoal from May 2012 onwards, unlawfully prevented fishermen from the Philippines from engaging in traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal."
China has been using its vast military power to build artificial islands and military bases in the South China Sea both in international waters and in waters that are part of other countries. In 2012, China forcibly invaded and annexed Scarborough Shoal, and used military threats to prevent Philippine fishermen from fishing there.
So when Duterte went to China to declare "separation" from the United States, many fishermen hoped that Duterte would regain access to Scarborough Shoal. But apparently Duterte didn't even try. When he was asked about it, he said: "We cannot win that ... Even if we get angry, we'll just be putting on airs. We can't beat China."
Later, Duterte said: "I leave it to them to, it’s one of the things I said that in the private talks which I cannot, but tingnan natin [let us see]. Let us see what develops in the days to come."
So Duterte really got nothing except promises. He got promises of loans and investments, and he apparently got a promise that China would allow the Philippines to do a little bit of fishing there.
We've seen the US administration concede one thing after another to Iran for the nuclear deal and to Russia for a farcical ceasefire in Aleppo Syria. Duterte is doing the same thing with China. For those of you who, like me, wondered for years how it was possible for Britain to appease Hitler, you're seeing it happen here. This is how the world works. Defense One and International Business Times (Singapore) and Philippine Star and CNN Philippines
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Oct-16 World View -- Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Italy struggles with the 'mini-Calais' refugee camp in Ventimiglia
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
France has announced that it will begin on Monday demolishing the migrant camp in Calais known as "The Jungle." The 6,500 to 10,000 migrants living in the camp will be given two choices: Either to be deported back to their home countries, or to stay in some 300 temporary refugee centers across France, where they can apply for asylum. Children who can prove that they have relatives in Britain may be allowed to travel to their family members.
The people in the camp are escaping war or poverty mostly from Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria. The reason that migrants have come to Calais in the first place is because it's near the Eurotunnel that connects France to Britain underneath the English Channel. Britain is a favorite destination because of liberal welfare and medical services policies, and because they prefer an English-speaking country. Refugees risk their lives by attempting to jump onto trucks that are headed through the EuroTunnel.
Over the last three or four years, the refugee camp has become squalid, unsanitary and unsafe for most people, especially women and children. Attempts to move people out of the camp in the past have led to confrontations with police.
On Monday, sixty buses are scheduled to transport 3,000 migrants to alternate refugee centers in other parts of France. Activists are claiming that they've come this far because they're desperate to reach Britain, and they'll resist being forced to leave. Furthermore, activists say, they'll simply return to Calais as soon as they have a chance. Reuters and Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) and CNN
Related Articles
Last week, Italian police with guns surrounded a small refrigerated van after a car chase, just before the van was going to cross the border into Italy. When they opened the back of the van, they were shocked to find 17 migrants in there. One passenger said he had paid 50 euros to a human trafficker to make the trick, and had feared suffocating inside the van.
The incident occurred in Ventimiglia, an Italian city on the border with France, opposite the French city of Menton. This area is often called "Mini-Calais" because every week hundreds of migrants try to cross the mountain passes and tunnels along the border either by foot or by hiding in vehicles. Those who succeed and are caught in France are sent back to Italy.
More than 24,000 refugees have been residing in Ventimiglia, where living conditions are getting steadily worse. That number is expected to increase, as more migrants arrive in Italy from North Africa. More than 145,000 have made the journey across the Mediterranean so far this year. EuroNews and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Oct-16 World View -- France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Russia's warship fleet sails through English Channel to Syria
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Russia's Northern Fleet, which Russian media describes as as “the most powerful Russian naval task force to sail in northern Europe since 2014," will pass through the English Channel on Friday on its way to the eastern Mediterranean. It's believed that it will be used to deliver a massive blow to the hundreds of thousands of residents of Aleppo in Syria.
The fleet includes the flagship aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov. It also includes a nuclear-powered battle cruiser, Pyotr Velikiy, and two Udaloy Class Destroyers. The Admiral Kuznetsov itself is capable of carrying 50 war planes.
Russia already has about 10 ships off Syria, which have fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria.
Some fears of war have been expressed in European media because Russia is sending such a large fleet through UK territorial waters. However, it seems pretty clear that the fleet will simply continue traveling south, to be used with the intended objective of killing as many of the residents of Aleppo as possible.
Britain's Defense Secretary Michael Fallon said,
"When these ships near our waters we will man-mark them every step of the way. We will be watching as part of our steadfast commitment to keep Britain safe."
British and Norwegian ships and Swedish reconnaissance aircraft will be monitoring the Russian fleet with a view to gaining as much intelligence as possible. BBC and CNN and Russia Today
When I was in college, one of the other kids kept a large snake in a glass cube in his room. I asked how he fed the snake. He said that once a month he'd put a live mouse into the cube. After a few days, the snake would eat the mouse. He told me that "in the meantime, the mouse would be a nervous wreck, because he knew what was going to happen."
That must be how the hundreds of thousands of residents of Aleppo feel right now. Russia has extended its "humanitarian pause" on air strikes for an additional 24 hours, but everyone knows that once the "pause" ends, Russian and Syrian warplanes will resume their destruction of Aleppo, including hospitals and civilian neighborhoods, using barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs.
Russia has also announced that six corridors were opened for civilians who want to escape the impending slaughter.
This is presumably a use of another weapon of war by the Russians and Syrians -- trying to create a new flood of hundreds of thousands more refugees, to add to the millions who are already flooding into neighboring countries and Europe. At any rate, it's believed that only a few hundred refugees have left Aleppo, for fear that they would be easy targets if they attempted to flee.
Some analysts have suggested that the purpose of the announcement of the "six corridors" is to be able to claim that the hundreds of thousands of civilians left in Aleppo, including women and children, must be "terrorists," to be killed by Syrian and Russian warplanes.
However, there is a logical contradiction. Russian media is saying that the reason that civilians haven't been fleeing Aleppo through the six corridors is because the terrorist rebels are telling them that they'll be shot if they try to leave. This claim contradicts the claim that the only civilians left in Aleppo are "terrorists."
At any rate, the Russian and Syrian destruction of Aleppo is expected to resume on Friday afternoon. Within a few more days, it's expected to be followed even more massive destruction from the warplanes and cruise missiles delivered by the new Russian naval fleet headed for the eastern Mediterranean.
According to one analyst I heard, the plan is for the destruction of Aleppo to be complete on the day before the US presidential election. Washington Post and BBC and Russia Today
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Oct-16 World View -- Aleppo bombings in 'humanitarian pause' as residents await Russia's death blow thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
With the Iraq army's great battle to recapture Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) under way since Monday, politicians and military leaders are issuing the confident statements that things are going well. The press has been reporting that the military operation is already "ahead of schedule," which presumably means that the schedule for the first day or two was specifically designed so that the army couldn't fail.
The Iraqi politicians and military leaders are claiming not only to be ahead of schedule, but also to have everyone's agreement on how the battle will go. Specifically, Turkey's troops will not take part at all, and when the final battles are being fought, then the Kurdish militias and the Iran-backed Shia militias will wait outside Mosul, and only the Iraqi army will enter Mosul. It sounds an awful lot like a fairy tale.
The Iraqi force of 30,000 soldiers will consist of many groups of participants -- the US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds, Iran, and Shia militias. These participants all save defeating ISIS as an objective, but when the battle is over, they all want to have as much influence in Mosul and control over events as possible. To imagine that all these other participants will simply cede control to the Iraq army seems like a fantasy.
We've already had the following:
Maybe all will go as Iraqi leaders have planned -- the participants will do as they're told, the battle will be quick, and only the Iraqi army will enter Mosul. But there are powerful forces at play, and powerful constituents, and they won't be stopped by a simple agreement, especially when something goes wrong. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Dow Jones
Related Articles
When the Ottoman Empire was defeated in World War I, troops from Greece, Armenia, France and Italy occupied Istanbul and partitioned much of the land previously controlled by the Ottomans. Turkey's War of Independence began in 1919, and continued until 1923, with Turkey's forces led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the revered founder of modern Turkey.
In 1920, the Ottoman Parliament approved a document known as Misak-i Milli, or the Turkish National Oath, which laid out Turkey's conditions for achieving peace, including a demand that "The future of the territories inhabited by an Arab majority at the time of the signing of the Armistice of Mudros will be determined by a referendum." However, when peace was finally achieved by the Lausanne Peace Treaty in 1923, many of the demands of the Turkish National Oath were not met.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has referred to the Turkish National Oath in his speeches. According to Turkish media, he sees the treaties that ended World War I as defining new national boundaries for the entire Mideast, and he sees the current wars in Syria and Iraq as a process of redrawing those boundaries for the first time in almost a century -- or as a plot by the West, the Kurds, Iran and other foreigners to divide up the Syria and Iraq among themselves.
Among the regions that Turkey was forced to give up in 1923 were parts of northern Syria and Iraq, including Mosul in Iraq and Manbij in Syria. Erdogan believes that if the Mideast boundaries are going to be redrawn, then Turkey must take part aggressively, or else be humiliated again as happened with the Lausanne Peace Treaty almost a century ago. Thus, in Erdogan's view, Turkey must take part in the Mosul operation, and Erdogan must eject Kurdish militias from northern Syria, where Turkey has been fighting Operation Euphrates Shield.
The Kurds are aware of this, of course, as they're trying to create their own state of Rojava in a region stretching from the Mediterranean to Iran in northern Syria and Iraq, along the border with Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly said that anything like that would be intolerable.
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is now governing only a small fraction of the original Syria, mockingly called "Alawite-istan," in the west. Al-Assad is planning destroy the city of Aleppo, killing as many of the 250,000 Sunni civilians living there are he can, using barrel bombs, cluster bombs, chlorine, phosphorous bombs and bunker bombs, as well as Russia's warplanes. Aleppo is currently under siege, with no food or supplies able to enter the city.
Turkey has vowed to attack the city of Manbij in northern Syria, to eject the Kurds and the last of the ISIS fighters.
As it turns out, Manbij is not far from Aleppo. Some analysts are suggesting that Turkey might try to break the siege on Aleppo.
Regular readers know that Generational Dynamics has been predicting a major Mideast war. We've mentioned several possible scenarios how such a war might begin. Possibilities include a war between Israelis and Arabs, a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or a war between India and Pakistan spreading to the Mideast. Each of these wars would create a scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war.
Now we must add another possible scenario. Turkey has become increasingly nationalist, especially since the July 15 attempted coup, and Turkey may end up fighting Iran, Iraq, the Kurds and al-Assad, attempting to recover the territory lost by the peace treaties that followed World War I. As in the other cases, this would create a scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war. Rudaw (Iraq-Kurds) and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Kurdistan 24 and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Oct-16 World View -- Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Egypt votes for two contradictory UN Security Council proposals on Syria
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The war in Syria, and particularly the targeting by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad of millions of innocent Sunni Arab civilians, has caused a split in the Arab community, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Egypt. This has led to Egypt's representative voting for two contradictory UN Security Council resolutions.
The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been targeting millions of innocent Sunni women and children with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs. Thousands of Sunni jihadists from dozens of countries around the world came to Syria to fight al-Assad, resulting in the creation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Al-Assad, backed by Russia, Hezbollah and Iran, has not only created ISIS, but he's caused millions of Syrians to flee their homes into neighboring countries, including over a million that have flooded into Europe, causing the biggest refugee crisis since the end of WW II. Al-Assad and the Russians have created the greatest geopolitical disaster so far this century.
Although several Western politicians have denounced al-Assad, Russia and Iran as war criminals and guilty of crimes against humanity, the UN Security Council has been powerless to do anything to stop al-Assad's war of extermination.
The farcical impotence of the UN Security Council has been evident for months, especially as al-Assad and the Russians have made it clear that they plan to destroy east Aleppo and kill as many of the 250,000 civilians as they can.
On October 8, France submitted a proposal to the UNSC for a no-fly zone over Aleppo to protect civilians. Russia vetoed this proposal, and then submitted its own proposal that all the "terrorists" be killed in Aleppo before a ceasefire can begin.
The farce reached new heights when the ambassador from Egypt supported both proposals. Egypt was joined by Russia, China, and Venezuela in its support for the Russian resolution. Egypt's ambassador Amr Abul Atta defended the two votes:
"Egypt backs all efforts aimed at stopping the Syrian people’s tragedy. It voted for both resolutions based on their content, not political bidding that has become a hindrance to the Security Council’s work.Egypt voted for halting deliberate targeting of Syrian civilians, backing for humanitarian access and cessation of hostilities according to relevant Security Council resolutions."
Saudi Arabia severely criticized Egypt's vote supporting the Russian resolution. Saudi's ambassador Abdallah Al-Mouallimi said:
"The Egyptian vote represents the Egyptian position and not the Arab one. It was painful to see that the Senegal and Malaysian positions were closer to the Arab consensus on Syria compared to that of an Arab representative."
Another Saudi official tweeted: "Sorry Egypt. But voting for the Russian draft resolution makes me doubt you are the mother of Arabs and the world." Daily News Egypt and Gulf News (Dubai) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Egypt Independent
Related Articles
Following Egypt's vote in the UN Security Council, the Saudi government-owned oil company Aramco suspended its oil deliveries to Egypt, possibly violating a five-year agreement.
Aramco is under a commercial contract to deliver 700,000 tonnes of refined oil products to Egypt at reduced prices. The $23 billion agreement was signed between Saudi Aramco and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) during the visit of Saudi King Salman to Egypt last year.
Iran has offered Egypt refined oil products to replace the products that the Saudis will not deliver.
Relations between Egypt and the Gulf Arab states changed markedly after Egypt's army coup in 2013 that overthrew the democratically elected Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government. Both Qatar and Turkey are allied with the Muslim Brotherhood, and the coup turned both countries against Egypt. Qatar had been providing aid to the Morsi government, but that aid stopped, and Saudi Arabia stepped in to help Egypt.
Turkey has remained relentlessly hostile to Egypt's current president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi who, as an army general, led the coup that ousted Morsi. Saudi Arabia has attempted to play a mediating role between Egypt on the one hand and Turkey and Qatar on the other hand.
However, the Saudi mediating effort is apparently wearing thin, as the long-standing differences between the two countries have now become painfully public because of the UN Security Council vote.
However, long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts that Russia, Iran and India will be allies of the West in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war against China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim countries.
These new developments in the Mideast, along with Egypt's good relationship with Israel and its new relationship with Iran may appear to signal that Egypt will be allied the West. However, the situation is more complicated than first appears. As the Saudis themselves have been pointing out, their disagreement is with Egypt's government, not with Egypt's people. Egypt is badly split following the ouster of Mohammed Morsi, and this split will be carried into any major Mideast war or world war. MEMRI and Middle East Eye and Hellenic Shipping News and Middle East Eye
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Oct-16 World View -- Egypt turns to Iran for oil after Saudi relationship deteriorates over Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
ISIS may be given a chance to escape to Syria
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted on Monday that Turkey will take part in the operation to recapture Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh):
"They say Turkey should not take part in the operation. How can Turkey not take part in the operation when it shares a 350-kilometer border with Iraq and receives all the terror threats from there? We have brothers in Mosul, Arabs, Turkmens and Kurds. If you go further north, we have relatives."
Turkish troops have been operating since 2014 in the Bashiqa military base in northern Iraq near Mosul, along the border with Turkey. Turkey has an estimated 2,000 troops in Iraq, around 500 of them in Bashiqa training about 1,000-2,000 Sunni Iraqi militia fighters in preparation for the Mosul operation.
On Thursday of last week, Iraq's foreign ministry in Baghdad summoned the Turkish ambassador. Iraq said that the Turkish forces in Bashiqa were "occupying forces" and "should be immediately withdrawn." Turkey refused to withdraw, and was able to produce a video of a December 2014 video in which Iraq's prime minister Haider al-Abadi asked for "military, intelligence, arms and training support" from Turkey. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Anadolu (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
In Thursday's statement, Erdogan reaffirmed that Turkey will do what is necessary in Mosul, and will not take directions from Iraq's prime minister.
Turkish officials are saying that the Mosul operation is a threat to the security of Turkey for several reasons:
The concerns are real. The Mosul operation will be led by Iraq's army (the one that dropped their guns and fled for their lives as ISIS fighters approached Mosul in 2014). The Iraqi force of 30,000 soldiers will have other participants besides the Iraqi army -- the US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds, Iran, and Shia militias. These participants have a common objective -- to recapture Mosul from ISIS. However, once the recapture is complete, these participants will all have different objectives. In particular, just as Turkey wants to retain its influence in Mosul, the other participants will also want to maximize their own influence.
So far, none of these conflicting objectives has influenced the first day of the military operation. But it's still possible that this situation will cause major problems down the road. CNN and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC
Related Articles
Among all the analyst opinions, there seems to be little doubt that the recapture of Mosul will succeed. There are a wide variety of opinions on how long it will take, how many civilians will be killed, how much of the city will be destroyed, how big the humanitarian disaster will be, and whether new terror groups will fill the vacuum when ISIS is gone. But analysts seem unanimous in believing that the Iraqi force of 30,000, backed by US-coalition airstrikes, will succeed in defeating the 3,000 to 4,500 ISIS militants in Mosul.
The loss of Mosul will be a huge symbolic loss for ISIS. It's the largest city that ISIS has captured -- even larger than Raqqa in Syria. Even more important, it's the city where ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi declared his "caliphate."
However, some analysts say that Iraq is hoping that ISIS will flee without fighting. Iraqi forces have been surrounding Mosul and blocking exits from the north, east and south, but they're leaving a corridor open to the west, hoping that ISIS fighters will take advantage of it and flee to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria.
According to one analyst, ISIS commanders are aware that they're going to lose the battle, and that many of their forces will be killed, so they may decide to withdraw their best fighters, and leave the newbies behind to fight and be killed.
Other analysts aren't so sure. One of them points out that ISIS fighters fleeing to the west will be easy targets for US airstrikes, and so ISIS commanders may feel they have no choice but to stand and fight. Washington Post and Business Insider (Australia) and Economist
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Sectarian violence may interfere with recapture of Mosul
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Iraq has announced that a major long-awaited battle has begun to recapture Mosul, the capital city of the province of Nineveh, from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in a televised statement early Monday:
"Our dearest people in Nineveh province, the victory bell has rung, and the operations to liberate Mosul have begun. I am announcing today the beginning of these heroic operations to liberate you from the brutality and terrorism of ISIS. God willing, we will meet soon on the ground of Mosul where we will all celebrate the liberation and your freedom."
The US State Department tweeted: "Godspeed to the heroic Iraqi forces, Kurdish #Peshmerga, and #Nineveh volunteers. We are proud to stand with you in this historic operation."
The US recently announced the deployment of 600 additional troops to aid in the battle, bringing the number of US personnel to more than 5,200.
On Sunday morning, Iraqi aircraft dropped thousands of leaflets over Mosul, advising residents how to protect themselves. The leaflets said, "The Mosul liberation operation is close and it is time to clean Iraq of Daesh (ISIS)," and advised residents "to avoid ISIS shelters, try to stay indoors and shut doors and windows."
Iraq's government is hoping for a quick victory and to avoid a humanitarian disaster. There are some 1.5 million people in Mosul, and Iraqi officials expect some 700,000 of them to flee Mosul. These people will have to be given a place to live and humanitarian aid.
ISIS captured Mosul in June 2014, when the Iraqi army dropped their weapons and fled, allowing ISIS to take the city almost without firing a shot. The loss of ISIS was a major catastrophe for Iraq, not only for the loss of the city, but also because ISIS took control of vast storehouses of American weapons, and also looted the banks of billions of dollars. CNN and Rudaw (Iraq-Kurdistan)
Related Articles
The Mosul operation is becoming as much a political battle as a military battle.
The main issue is the use of Shia militias backed by Iran. When ISIS attacked the city of Ramadi, the Iraq army initially fled from ISIS forces, as they did in Mosul. So for the recapture of Ramadi, Tikrit and Fallujah, Iraq army forces were accompanied by Shia militias. After the cities were recaptured, the pro-Iranian Shia forces committed sectarian violence against the Sunni residents of the cities.
Now many Sunni Muslims fear a repeat of that sectarian violence if Shia militias are permitted to participate in the military operation. This apparently is the expectation of the some of the Shia militias themselves. The leader of the pro-Iranian Ahl al-Haq militia Qais al-Khazali recently said that "the battle of Mosul is revenge for the killing of Hussein," referring to Hussein ibn Ali (or Husayn ibn Ali) who is considered to be a revered Shia saint who was killed in 680 at the Battle of Karbala, which was the seminal battle that resulted in the Sunni-Shia split.
For this reason, Sunni tribal leaders in Nineveh are demanding that Shia militias be kept out of Nineveh and Mosul. According to one tribal leader, "we are concerned and fear for what will happen after ISIS. The possibility of personal revenge makes people afraid."
According to officials in Turkey, numerous groups might participate in the operation: the U.S.-led coalition, Iraqi soldiers, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) peshmergas, Iranian forces, Shia forces, Turkey-backed local forces and even PKK terrorists. The US-led coalition could include forces from Britain, France, Australia and Denmark.
Turkey agrees that Shia militias should not be involved in the recapture of Mosul, and they add that the same is true of Kurdish militias. Defense Minister Fikri Isik warns about the use of both Shia and Kurdish militias, and also offers Turkey's help:
"If you try to clear Mosul [from jihadists] with Shiite militias, you may start new chaos and a mess that would last 100 years. We are talking about these with the U.S. What we observe so far is that what we have been saying is being taken into account. ...Let us give support to you for an operation to be conducted with local groups of this region. If you are to clear Raqqa, don’t do it with the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] or PYD [Democratic Union Party] because they could cause bigger problems after Daesh goes from the city."
Turkey has three main concerns: first, a potential sectarian rift between Sunnis and Shias, second, a new refugee crisis, and third, creation of a vacuum that would other terror groups to grow.
However, Iraq is strongly opposed to Turkey's participation.
Some analysts are questioning whether Iraq's army can be successful in recapturing Mosul, unless it has the help of Shia, Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Rudaw (Iraq - Kurds) and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Oct-16 World View -- Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Farce continues, as Pakistan involves the German embassy
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
War turned into farce this past week, as Pakistan claims that India was lying when India said that it conducted military "surgical strikes" into Pakistani territory in Kashmir.
We recently reported a major change in policy by India's military -- that it would invade Pakistan's soil if necessary. ( "30-Sep-16 World View -- Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir")
The series of events was triggered by a major terrorist attack, blamed on Pakistan, on an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir on September 18. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years. India promised retaliation for the Uri attack.
The retaliation came on September 29 in the form of a series of "targeted strikes" or "surgical strikes" by India's armed forces on militant targets across the Line of Control (LoC) into the region of Kashmir governed by Pakistan.
The attack on Pakistani soil infuriated Pakistan's public, resulting in calls for retaliation, even at risk of starting a war. Pakistan's Foreign Office issued a statement:
"We can assure India that any such aggression will not go unanswered or unpunished. Pakistan is ready to defend its people and territory from any Indian aggression or Indian state-sponsored terrorism on Pakistani soil. The valiant armed forces of Pakistan have given and will continue to give a befitting response to any aggression,” said the Foreign Office spokesman in a statement."
There is particular sensitivity in Pakistan over the question of whether the Army is protecting Pakistani soil, after the American commando operation that captured Osama bin Laden.
But apparently Pakistani government officials found a solution to the problem.
They have declared that the "surgical strikes" never occurred, that they were just a "bluff," and that they were announced by India's military in order to confuse and humiliate Pakistan by making it appear that the country could not defend its own soil. Some of Pakistan's media is even claiming that the Uri military base attack was a "false flag" operation by India's military to provoke anti-Pakistan nationalism in India.
Some Pakistani officials are calling the Indian military "delusional" for claiming that the strikes took place. BBC (30-Sep) and Daily Times (Pakistan) and The News (Pakistan, 30-Sep)
Related Articles
Pakistan's claims that India fabricated the story about "surgical strikes" took an even more bizarre and farcical turn when Pakistan media began to claim that a highly placed Indian official had confessed that the surgical strike story was phony.
According to Pakistan media, the German foreign office in Berlin told diplomats at the Pakistan Embassy in Berlin about a meeting that took place between Germany diplomats and the Indian foreign secretary in New Delhi. At the New Delhi meeting, the Indian foreign secretary Subramaniam Jaishankar is quoted as saying:
"the Indian Foreign Secretary has categorically denied and said that there was no ‘surgical strike’ undertaken by Indian Army inside Azad Kashmir, Pakistan."
Pakistan media also quotes an unnamed high-level Indian government official saying that it was all a plot by India's governing BJP party, which is led by the prime minister Narendra Modi:
"With the so-called mantra of surgical strike, the BJP government wanted to achieve many objectives such as to prove to the world that Pakistan is a terror sponsoring state and India has the military muscle to put it under restrain, Kashmir's freedom movement is nothing more than Pakistan's sponsored terrorism, to satisfy its populations' demand of avenging Uri attack and to create an unrivaled political space ahead of UP's state elections."
However, a spokesman for the German embassy in New Delhi said that no such conversation with German diplomats ever took place. "The report in News International Pakistan is baseless and without any truth," according to the German embassy.
According to the India-based South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG), the surgical strikes have had the "unintended consequence" of stirring debate in Pakistan itself whether Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency should continue protecting and sponsoring terrorists who attack targets in India. The News (Pakistan) and Daily News and Analysis (India) and South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Oct-16 World View -- Pakistan and India in farcical dispute over 'surgical strikes' in Kashmir thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
EU president Donald Tusk tells Britain: 'Hard Brexit or No Brexit'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The recent meteoric fall of the British pound sterling currency is just one of the reasons why concerns are growing about the fallout from the results of the June 23 Brexit referendum, which mandated that Britain leave the European Union. The pound has plunged 18% versus the dollar to its lowest level in 31 years. At the same time, many international businesses that previously have been using Britain as a gateway to Europe are now moving their operations from London to cities like Dublin, Frankfurt, Madrid and Warsaw.
The fall in the value of the pound means that the cost of imports like South African blueberries and Italian bathroom fixtures will be substantially higher. It could benefit exporters, who will get more money for their goods sold abroad, but since the UK imports much more than it exports, the economic news from Brexit suggests that there will be a substantial fall UK living standards.
During the Brexit campaign, the politicians make all kinds of moronic promises, such as we hear constantly from all politicians. One of those promises was that the UK would save 50 million pounds per day that was being sent to Brussels, and that that money could be used to bail out the crashing National Health Service.
Now a new report indicates that instead of saving 50 million pounds per week, the UK will be forced to pay to the EU an additional 350 million pounds per week, to cover shared EU liabilities, including unpaid debt and pension liabilities. This is being called a "Brexit divorce" bill.
More of the moronic promises had to do with Britain's relationship with the EU after Brexit. The pro-Brexit campaign had promised that the EU would be anxious to grant Britain the same access to Europe's single market that it had now, but without the requirement that Britain be subjected to control from Brussels. In particular, Britain would not have to accept Christian immigrants from Poland or Muslim immigrants from Syria and Afghanistan.
Since the vote, EU politicians said that there would no access to Europe's single market unless Britain accepts EU's four freedoms: freedom of movement for people, goods, capital and services. Britain would have to accept freedom of movement of people, along with the other three freedoms.
This was emphasized in a speech Thursday by European Commission president Donald Tusk:
"I do not need to remind you that the creation of the European Union was a response to a historic catastrophe. The source of this catastrophe was the questioning of those values and treating national egoisms, the use of violence and the unlimited right of the stronger to dictate conditions for the weaker as the norm.As Stefan Zweig wrote in those days: "It is an iron law that those who will be caught up in the great movements determining the course of their times always fail to recognize them in their early stages." ...
Finally, let's move on to Brexit. ... Our task will be to protect the interests of the EU as a whole and the interests of each of the 27 member states. And also to stick unconditionally to the Treaty rules and fundamental values. By this I mean, inter alia, the conditions for access to the single market with all four freedoms. There will be no compromises in this regard.
When it comes to the essence of Brexit, it was largely defined in the UK during the referendum campaign. We all remember the promises, which cumulated in the demand to "take back control".
Namely the "liberation" from European jurisdiction, a "no" to the freedom of movement or further contributions to the EU budget. This approach has definitive consequences, both for the position of the UK government and for the whole process of negotiations. Regardless of magic spells, this means a de facto will to radically loosen relations with the EU, something that goes by the name of "Hard Brexit".
This scenario will in the first instance be painful for Britons. In fact, the words uttered by one of the leading campaigners for Brexit and proponents of the "cake philosophy" was pure illusion: that one can have the EU cake and eat it too. To all who believe in it, I propose a simple experiment. Buy a cake, eat it, and see if it is still there on the plate.
The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of us. There will be no cakes on the table. For anyone. There will be only salt and vinegar. If you ask me if there is any alternative to this bad scenario, I would like to tell you that yes, there is.
And I think it is useless to speculate about "soft Brexit" because of all the reasons I've mentioned. These would be purely theoretical speculations. In my opinion, the only real alternative to a "Hard Brexit" is "no Brexit"."
Britain will remain part of the European Union for at least another 30 months. That's because Britain's new prime minister Theresa May has not yet invoked "Article 50," and has said she will do so in March of next year. Invoking Article 50 begins a two-year negotiation process for Britain to leave the EU. Donald Tusk is clearly suggesting that May not invoke Article 50 at all, a decision that would infuriate a large percentage of British (I mean English) voters. Guardian (London) and Independent (London) and International Business Times (London)
Related Articles
The Brexit referendum revealed that Britain's population is badly split, but not along the usual Labor-Conservative lines. Instead, it was split geographically (England and Wales were pro-Brexit, Scotland and Northern Ireland were anti-Brexit), and it was split by generation, with Millennials furious at Boomers for the vote.
On September 18, 2014, Scotland held a referendum on the question of whether Scotland should leave the UK and become an independent country. This would have dissolved the 1707 union between England and Scotland that came out of the War of the Spanish Succession. Voters rejected the referendum, with 55.3% voting no.
Many in Scotland are bitter that they are going to be forced to leave the European Union even though they voted 62% to stay. For that reason, Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said that she will introduce a plan for a new Scottish independence referendum.
Scotland is one of the four nations of the United Kingdom, the other three being England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Of the 63 million people in the UK, England has 53 million, and Scotland has only 5 million.
Scotland is far less densely populated than England, which means that Scotland welcomes immigrants to fill jobs, causing some Scots to call the English "xenophobic." In her speech on Thursday, Nicola Sturgeon accused England of being undemocratic:
"They are using the result as cover for a hard Brexit for which they have no mandate - but which they are determined to impose, regardless of the ruinous consequences. Worse still, they intend to do all of this with no parliamentary authority. Virtually no scrutiny whatsoever. And to do it with complete disregard for Scotland's democratic voice. That is simply not acceptable."
Analysts consider it unlikely that Sturgeon will get her way. Polls show that the Scottish people still do not support separation from England. Even more important, few people believe that it would even be possible for Scotland to be in the European Union, and not in the United Kingdom. Reuters and International Business Times
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Oct-16 World View -- Scotland considers separation from England as 'Hard Brexit' looms thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Today's musical entertainment: The March of the Siamese Children
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The 88 year old King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand has been in deteriorating health for several years, so his death could hardly have been completely unexpected. And yet, it's surprising that the news stories coming out of Bangkok on Thursday after his death are of a shocked nation in mourning.
King Bhumibol, also known as Rama IX, was born on December 5, 1927, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He's has been on the throne since 1946, for 70 years, and so for almost every resident of Thailand, he's been ever-present as the King of Thailand. At his death, he was the longest-ruling monarch in the world. That title now passes to Queen Elizabeth of Britain.
The other surprising thing is that, even in death, it's illegal to say almost anything critical of the royal family. This is the so-called "lèse-majesté" law which says that it's treason to insult the king. And people have been sent to jail for even minor criticisms. Countries around the world are advising any of their citizens visiting Thailand to avoid saying anything about the royal family or Thai politics at this time.
Bhumibol is revered today because he led the country through numerous crises, including several coups and military takeovers. Even today, Thailand is governed by a military junta that overthrew the democratically elected government in 2014, and Bhumibol's influence is viewed by many as keeping the excesses of the military under control. Still, the army junta has made draconian use of the lèse-majesté as a tool for jailing dissidents.
Thailand's last generational crisis war was Cambodia's "Killing Fields" war in 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge government killed almost ten million people in a massive genocide.
The Cambodian war spilled over into Thailand in the form of a communist rebellion that began in the 1960s. King Bhumibol became an essential figure in the fight against the communists, although his role became more controversial in the savage anti-leftist coup of 1976, in which dozens of students were brutally killed by the security forces and royal-backed militias, and thousands forced to flee to seek sanctuary with the Communist Party. Despite his brutality, most Thai people look back at that time as central to upholding the authority of the state throughout the country. The Nation (Bangkok) and BBC and Public Radio International and AFP and BT (London) and Guardian (London)
In yesterday's article, I discussed a pattern that many countries follow after a bloody generational crisis civil war between two ethnic groups. The civil war is so horrific that the survivors vow that it will never happen again. The first generation growing up after the civil war, and with no personal memory of its horrors, begin peacefully protesting. The country leader, often from ethnic group that "won" the civil war, stays in power and resists peaceful protesters with violence, using the excuse that he wants to prevent another ethnic civil war. This pattern is currently being followed in generational Awakening eras in Burundi, Syria, and South Sudan -- and in Thailand.
In Thailand, the two ethnic groups are the minority light-skinned "yellow shirt" élite, mostly of Chinese descent, known as Thai-Chinese, versus the much larger population of dark-skinned "red shirt" mostly indigenous ethnic Thais, known as Thai-Thais. The indigenous Thai-Thais make up a majority of the population, and so they have been winning elections, much to the horror of the Thai-Chinese elite.
This exactly the kind of situation that gives rise to the Awakening era pattern described above. In this case, the Thai army have sided with the Thai-Chinese, and there have been three coups in the last ten years. In 2014, the army finally gave up even trying to hold elections, and they took control of the government, essentially giving control to the Thai-Chinese. King Bhumibol was a powerful influence in the last few years, keeping the excesses of the ruling junta under control.
With Bhumibol's death, the next in line to be king is his 62-year-old son, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn. Vajiralongkorn has been married and divorced three times, has seven children, is considered to be a partying playboy, is currently living with an airline stewardess, and is deeply unpopular. He's also thought to be aligned with the army, which will raise the anger of the large indigenous population.
With the loss of Bhumibol's calming influence, it's quite possible that we'll see Thailand move in the direction towards genocide that we've been seeing in Burundi and Syria, where the leader commits genocide against the other ethnic group in order to protect the people from another war like the last one. That hasn't started in Thailand yet, but it could happen, as some analysts are predicting that Thailand is headed for street protests, violent clashes, and other signs of increasing instability. LA Times and Economist (23-Jul) and International Business Times
Related Articles
The 1952 Rodgers and Hammerstein Broadway musical, "The King and I", was based on the 1946 book "Anna and the King of Siam" by Margaret Landon. The story takes place in 1862 Bangkok Siam (Thailand). A teacher from Britain, Anna Owen, arrives in Bangkok to tutor the family of King Mongkut. She regrets her decision to go until she is charmed by King Mongkut's children.
You must take three minutes off and watch "The March of the Siamese Children" from the 1956 movie "The King and I," starring Deborah Kerr and Yul Brynner.
YouTube - March of the Siamese Children
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Oct-16 World View -- Thailand mourns as Massachusetts-born King Bhumibol Adulyadej dies thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Burundi lawmakers vote to leave the International Criminal Court (ICC)
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A United Nations reports on Burundi has documented human rights violations on a wide, systemic, massive scale by the government of president Pierre Nkurunziza.
The hundreds of documented violations include torture, sexual violence, arbitrary jailings, targeted assassinations and summary executions. The targets of this massive violence were mostly political opponents who opposed Nkurunziza's third term as president, in apparent violation of the constitution, which limits presidents to two terms. Nkurunziza claimed that his first term doesn't count because he was appointed by the parliament, rather than being directly elected.
Nkurunziza's decision to run for a third term in April of last year triggered street protests by young people. Nkurunziza's security forces confronted the peaceful protests with bullets, tear gas and water cannon, killing about ten people in four days of violence.
Burundi's last generational crisis war was the 1994 Rwanda genocide, which also involved Burundi, in which ethnic Hutus killed some 800,000 ethnic Tutsis in three months. Burundi is now in a generational Awakening era, and is following the pattern where the first generation to grow up after the war are now staging protests. Nkurunziza is an ethnic Hutu, and his massive torture and violence is targeting Tutsis.
During America's last generational Awakening era, in the 1960s when the first post-World War II generation came of age, there were student protests, but the government did not resort to torture, sexual violence, arbitrary jailings, targeted assassinations and summary executions to counter them. So, there is a wide spectrum of behaviors that a government can exhibit during the Awakening era that follows the end of a generational crisis war by about 15-20 years.
Syria is also in a generational Awakening era, and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is on the most violent end of the spectrum. The Syrian civil war pitted Shia/Alawites against Sunni Muslims, and climaxed in 1982. Today, the Shia/Alawite al-Assad is targeting millions innocent Sunni women and children with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs.
We've described a similar pattern in other countries, including Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka. The pattern is this: There is a bloody generational crisis civil war between two ethnic groups. The civil war is so horrific that the survivors vow that it will never happen again. The first generation growing up after the civil war, and with no personal memory of its horrors, begins peacefully protesting. The country leader, often from ethnic group that "won" the civil war, stays in power and resists peaceful protesters with violence, using the excuse that he wants to prevent another ethnic civil war.
Since the initial violence in Burundi began in April of last year, the violence has continued to worse. More than 500 people have died from extrajudicial killings, and at least 270,000 people have fled the country to Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and DRC. United Nations Human Rights and IRIN (United Nations) and All Africa
Related Articles
The recent United Nations report accusing the Burundi regime of Pierre Nkurunziza of massive human rights violations has infuriated regime officials, and caused them to take several steps to isolate themselves and protect themselves from retribution for the human rights violations.
For a while last year, the African Union was discussing the possibility of sending in peacekeeping troops to protect civilians from violence, but that had to be abandoned when Nkurunziza said that the AU peacekeepers would be treated as an invading army. (Some analysts responded to this failure by calling it the "African disunion." Similarly, the UN failure to stop the genocide is Syria is sometimes called the "Disunited Nations.")
Last week, Nkurunziza barred three United Nations human rights experts from entering the country and declared them persona non grata. The three had been associated with the United Nations report.
Now on Wednesday, Burundi's legislature has voted to leave the International Criminal Court (ICC). One Burundi lawmaker said that "The ICC is a tool being used to try and change power," making the same sort of excuse that Syria's Bashar al-Assad uses when criticized for his war crimes. Burundi officials have expressed fear that they will be charged with crimes against humanity. They would be the first country ever to withdraw from the ICC.
The withdrawal from the ICC will take effect one year after the government formally notifies the United Nation of its intention. In the meantime, some politicians are asking the ICC to speed up the ongoing preliminary examination and bring charges within a year.
The violence in Burundi has not yet reached the full-scale genocidal slaughter that we're seeing from the al-Assad regime in Syria, but it's pretty clear that the Nkurunziza regime in Burundi is headed in the same direction. AFP and International Business Times and African Arguments
Related Arguments
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Oct-16 World View -- Burundi's Pierre Nkurunziza follows Syria's Bashar al-Assad on path to genocide thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Fears grow of new wave of Buddhist vs Rohingya communal violence
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Nine Myanmar police were killed, with four others injured and one still missing, when some 20 militants conducted coordinated attacks on three border posts along the Bangladesh border. The attacks took place around 1:30 am on Sunday morning. The attackers were armed with swords and spears, as well as conventional firearms, and they made off with more than 10,000 rounds of ammunition and dozens of guns. Eight militants were killed, and two others were captured alive.
The attacks took place in Rakhine State, which was the site of mass communal ethnic violence by Buddhist Burmese against Muslims in the Rohingya ethnic group in 2012.
No one has claimed credit for the attacks, but it's believed the attacks were in revenge for the Buddhist attacks on Rohingya Muslims, and for plans announced last month by the government to demolish 12 mosques and 35 madrasas (religious schools) in Rakhine State because they had been built without permission.
Police are not making a statement on the identities of the captured militants, but police are saying that they're neither Myanmar nationals nor Rohingyas, but that they received help from Rohingyas. Myanmar Times and Dhaka (Bangladesh) Tribune and Anadolu (Turkey) and The News (Pakistan)
There was a burst of violence of Buddhists attacking Muslims in June 2012, triggered by an alleged rape of a Buddhist Rakhine girl by Muslim Rohingyas.
In October of that year, there was a much worse wave of violence and massacres described as a genocidal "scorched earth attack" by Buddhists, killing dozens of Muslims, destroying 2000 homes, and forcing thousands of refugees into squalid refugee camps which already house hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas.
The Rohingya have a darker skin than Burmese, and they speak a Bengali dialect. They are, for all practical purposes, a stateless ethnic group, living on the Bangladesh-Burma border, but rejected by both countries. In fact, Burma refuses to identify the Rohingya as a unique ethnic group, preferring to call them Bengali, and referring to them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Burma is almost entirely a Buddhist state, including the Rakhine ethnic group that make up most of the population of Rakhine state.
Then in April 2013, 20 Muslim boys were taken from a madrassa, and hacked to death, their bodies soaked in petrol and set alight. This was part of a much larger wild, frenzied attack by Buddhists on Muslims that killed dozens and reduced an entire established community of 12,000 Muslims, including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and rubble. Police watched and did nothing while thousands of people -- women, monks, young people -- cheered when someone was killed.
The level of hysteria was similar to Kristallnacht, November 9, 1938, when thousands of Germans cheered at seeing the the Nazis torch synagogues, vandalize Jewish homes, schools and businesses and kill Jews.
It's now feared that the Sunday's killing of the border guards Rohingya-linked militants will trigger another wave of mass slaughter of Muslims by Buddhists. According to Vijay Nambiar, UN envoy to Myanmar:
"At this delicate juncture, the local communities at all levels must refuse to be provoked by these incidents and their leaders must work actively to prevent incitement of animosity or mutual hatred between Buddhist and Muslim communities."
Myanmar authorities have sent troops into Rakhine State to prevent further violence. But the troops are also going to be hunting for any Rohingyas who might have been involved in Sunday's attack. Thus it's possible that the troops may not fail to prevent violence; they may trigger new violence. UN News Center and Radio Free Asia and Saudi Gazette
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Oct-16 World View -- Militants linked to Myanmar's Rohingyas kill border guards in revenge attack thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Turkey-Russia TurkStream deal based on pragmatism rather than reconciliation
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Officials from Russia and Turkey signed an agreement on Monday for the Turkish Stream pipeline project, to build pipelines supplying Russian natural gas to Turkey and to western Europe. The agreement was signed in Istanbul, Turkey, during the World Energy Congress, during a ceremony attended by Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Also attending was Ilham Aliyev of president of Azerbaijan, since Azerbaijan will be taking part in the project.
The agreement is being viewed as the biggest sign so far that Turkey and Russia are overcoming their differences after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in November 2015. Nonetheless, all the signs are that this was a deal of pragmatism, rather than any real warming of relations between the two leaders or the two countries.
Both countries have become internationally isolated because of sanctions. The West imposed sanctions on Russia after Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Turkey became isolated when Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey because of the shootdown.
The relationship between Russia and Turkey became extremely vitriolic, but neither country did anything that might be called a "nuclear option." The sanctions that Russia imposed on Turkey -- food imports/exports, tourism restrictions, etc. -- hurt both economies, but were not sufficiently serious to be significant.
For Turkey, the "nuclear option" would have been to close the Turkish straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles channels), the waterways that connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, to Russian ships that wish to travel between the two bodies of water. That never happened.
Russia could have canceled natural gas shipments to Turkey through the existing Blue Stream trans-Black Sea gas pipeline, but that never happened either.
Further plans on the new TurkStream gas pipeline project were canceled after the shootdown last year, as were plans for a Russian-built nuclear plant in Turkey. But with Monday's agreement, those plans are are all now being implemented. Sputnik News (Moscow) and VOA and Reuters
Related Articles
Both Turkey and Russia have had ailing economies recently. Signing the TurkStream deal on Monday will mean major economic benefits to both countries -- assuming that the pipelines are actually built.
Russia's existing pipelines run through Ukraine, a country whose relations with Russia are even worse than Turkey's. The TurkStream project would provide an alternate path for Russian gas to reach Europe. The TurkStream pipelines would bring infrastructure investment into Turkey, and would provide steady income in the form of transit fees of Russian gas through Turkey to Europe.
However, Turkey and Russia are still deeply divided over the war in Syria. It's hard to remember now, but before 2011, Erdogan, Putin and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad were all allies. Then the so-called "Arab Spring" began, and al-Assad began slaughtering peaceful protesters, as well as women and children in marketplaces and schools. In August 2011, when he launched a massive military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians, Turkey turned against al-Assad. At the same time, Putin, who has plenty of his own experience in slaughtering innocent women and children, became al-Assad's ally and protector. Those bitter differences between Erdogan and Putin still exist, and will not disappear as long as al-Assad is governing Syria.
Another bitter difference arises from the fact that Turkey has invaded northern Syria in Operation Euphrates Shield, in order to drive fighters from both Kurdish militias and and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Turkey has set up a "safe zone" in northern Syria for Syrians fleeing from al-Assad's violence. This means that Turkey's troops are expected to remain for some time.
On the Russian side, Russia is installing advanced surface-to-air missile systems. Since the jihadist groups do not have an air force, these missile systems are presumably meant for aircraft from Europe, the US, and especially Turkey.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's clear where this is going. As I've been writing for years, in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be on one side, and the West, India, Russia and Iran will be on the other side.
People often say that two countries won't go to war because it would be bad for business, and that's being said now about the Russia-Turkey business deal. But that's not how the world works. If two countries have high volumes of trade, then that just becomes another weapon of war, as one country imposes sanctions on the other. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Time
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Manufacture of Ivanka Trump's shoes will move from China to Ethiopia
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The declaration of a six-month state of emergency is a major development, as Ethiopia hasn't declared a state of emergency for decades. However, the government has been increasingly rattled by growing anti-government protests, especially among the marginalized Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of Ethiopia's population, and among the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises another 27%.
The government is largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrays, who are a market and government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the population. They are extremely authoritarian and have succeeded in marginalizing the other ethnic groups, and are said to have informants in villages throughout the country.
According to Ethiopian officials:
"The Council of Ministers has declared a state of emergency that will be effective as of Sunday evening so as to deal with anti-peace elements that have allied with foreign forces and are jeopardizing the peace and security of the country. ...The state of emergency was declared following a thorough discussion by the Council of Ministers on the loss of lives and property damages occurring in the country.
We put our citizens' safety first. Besides, we want to put an end to the damage that is being carried out against infrastructure projects, education institutions, health centers, administration and justice buildings.
A state of emergency has been declared because the situation posed a threat against the people of the country.
The emergency will not breach basic human rights enshrined under the Ethiopian constitution and won't also effect diplomatic rights listed under the Vienna Convention.
The state of emergency will help restore peace and security shortly. It is also intended to smooth the progress of the efforts being made to resolve the problem peacefully."
The Ethiopian government is extremely authoritarian, and has always successfully met peaceful protests with arrests and violence. The government has not yet announced details of what the state of emergency will mean, but it's expected that the military will become even more in control, and may become even more violent. Fana Broadcasting (Ethiopia) and Deutsche Welle
The government considered the state of emergency to be necessary following violence at a peaceful protest last week. Dozens to hundreds of ethnic Oromo people were killed last Sunday (2-Oct) when security officials used teargas and gunshots to disperse protesters at the Oromos' annual Irreecha thanksgiving celebration in the town of Bishoftu. These actions triggered a stampede among the tens of thousands of people peacefully protesting against the government, resulting in the deaths.
The Oromos are the largest ethnic group in east Africa, and make up 34% of Ethiopia's population, where they are split approximately evenly between Christianity and Islam.
Most of them live in the Oromia region, which surrounds the capital city Addis Ababa. Addis Ababa is a major metropolis, and it has been growing and expanding. Last year, the government announced a plan to expand Addis Ababa into Oromo farmland, which triggered large scale protests. Massive protests in December 2015 caused the government to back down on the plan, but the protests have continued, because of deep poverty among the Oromos and what they see as marginalization.
In recent weeks, the protesters have become violent, and they attacked businesses, putting at risk the government-portrayed image that Ethiopia is the best place in Africa for business investments. This has caused the government to appear desperate to restore stability, so as not to scare away the foreign investors. AFP and BBC and IRIN News and African Arguments
The kebeles are the smallest unit of local government in Ethiopia, and exist throughout the entire country, in both rural and urban districts. When the USSR-dominated communist government, known as the Derg dictatorship, was in charge prior to 1991, they were used by the government to exert local control.
As I described recently in the Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea, Ethiopia's last generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the Derg dictatorship was overthrown. The new constitution promised human rights for everyone. Theoretically, the kebeles were then to become a democrat way of devolving central government power to the local authorities.
An election in May 2005 threatened the power of the government dominant ethnic Tigrays, which are only 6% of the population. The kebeles became a powerful instrument for retaining power, according to Human Rights Watch in 2005:
"While originally intended to help implement the Derg’s ambitious rural development agenda and land reform program, the kebele system quickly evolved into a highly effective mechanism of control and repression. Kebele officials were expected to keep their communities under perpetual surveillance and to report any subversive activities to higher authorities. The kebeles were also used to disseminate government propaganda, implement government policies and maintain general order and discipline. When the EPRDF came to power it retained the kebele as the smallest unit of local government throughout Ethiopia and has continued to use the system to consolidate and extend the power of the ruling party.In Oromia’s rural areas, kebele officials wield a great deal of power over the populations they govern. Most of the region’s rural population consists of subsistence farmers who depend upon kebele officials to provide them with a range of essential services and agricultural inputs. Perhaps most significantly, kebele officials distribute fertilizer to farmers throughout Oromia on credit and are responsible for collecting those debts when they come due. Farmers must also obtain letters from kebele officials verifying their identity and place of residence when they wish to access government services outside of their communities. Such letters are usually required, for example, in order to visit a doctor or send one’s children to secondary school in town."
Ethiopia is now in a generational Awakening era, and as I've described in Syria, Burundi, and other countries, these are times when anti-government protests only grow, and if the government is sufficiently paranoid, then these peaceful protests are met with increasing violence by government security forces. These protests are only going to increase, possibly sending Ethiopia into an increasing spiral of government violence.
Addis Standard (Addis Ababa, 9-Jun-2016) and Human Rights Watch (2005)
Related Articles
 |
The Huajian Group, a major Chinese shoe manufacturer, and the manufacturer of Ivanka Trump's shoes, is considering moving part of its manufacturing business from China to Ethiopia, to take advantage of workers who are paid lower wages.
This is not as fatuous a story as it appears to be. Donald Trump has criticized the number of manufacturing jobs that have moved from America to China, and the Chinese media are making a big deal of the fact that Ivanka's shoes may no longer be manufactured in China. Shanghaiist and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Oct-16 World View -- Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Indian media increasingly accepts the 'indigenous'
nature of the Kashmir protests
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Junaid Ahmad Akhoon, a 12-year-old boy, died early on Saturday after being "sprayed with pellets" by police pellet guns on Friday during anti-India protests. About 50 more people were injured during the Friday protests. Police said the boy was injured during clashes between protesters and security forces, but the local residents alleged that the boy was not involved in any protest.
The killing triggered new violent clashes on Saturday between thousands of protesters in Srinagar, the provincial capital city of Kashmir, and Indian troops, who fired warning shots and used tear gas and pellet guns. Intermittent clashes spread to different regions in Kashmir throughout the day. Curfews were re-imposed in several districts, after having been lifted for only a few days.
It's now been 92 days of almost continuous protests and riots since the July 8 killing by security forces of Burhan Wani, the leader of the Hizbul Mujahideen separatist group in Kashmir. Over 90 people have been killed and over 12,000 injured since the July 8 killing. Stone-throwing crowds are met with security forces spraying the crowds using pellet guns. Hundreds of people have been blinded by the pellets. International Business Times and Daily Kashmir Images
Related Articles
According to official government figures, 446 people were arrested in the last week. Close to 7000 people have been arrested in Jammu and Kashmir since July 8, while more than 450 people have been booked under the Public Safety Act (PSA), a 1978 law considered highly restrictive. In addition, police sources say that 1500 others are under detention without any charges, and their detention doesn’t reflect in the official records.
Judging from Indian media, numbers like these are driving increased acceptance of the view that the continuing protests and violence in Kashmir are not being caused by Pakistan, but are "indigenous" and "organic," meaning that it's coming from the people, rather than from the politicians.
One Kashmir government spokesman, Nayeem Akhtar, compared the situation today to protests that occurred in 2010, which were purely political:
"[We are finding] ourselves in an unprecedented situation. ...There is a difference, lot of difference between 2010 and 2016. Like the local leadership apparently is not in control, the leadership has gone to 10 and 12 year old boys. Those who lead are driven by the street. In 2010, they could assert and bring it back. What we did (in 2010) is the role of opposition. I wish National Conference does the same but they have disappeared."
"National Conference" is a political party formed in 1947 with the objective of achieving Kashmiri independence from India through political means. Akhtar's point is that there is no longer political control of the protests, which are now being led by teenagers who weren't even around to protest in the past. It's this generational change that's caused a political protest to become a violent protest.
Parvez Imroz, a rights activist in Kashmir supporting the separatists, also emphasizes a generational change:
"The government doesn't really know what to do and how to control protests.The state has become more vehement, firing bullets and pellets on unarmed people. But, despite all this use of force, people are organizing these protests well, which was not the case in the early 1990s. It was more of an emotional outburst back then. And many young people who are now on the streets have not seen the fear and terror that was instilled by the government forces in early 1990s.
Now that element of fear is gone. ...
The use of force against protesters is likely to continue. But one thing is certain - this uprising has given [a] new dimension to the resistance in Kashmir.
The young generation is really controlling things on the streets.
In [the] 1990s, and even till early 2000, some people from here would go and openly talk to the Indian government on behalf of people, but that can't happen now because people here have realized nothing comes out of these talks.
But it remains to be seen how young people leading the protests will organize themselves and lead the struggle in the times ahead."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is how the world works. The 1947 Partition war between Muslims and Hindus was one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, so horrific that the survivors did everything they could to make sure that it never happens again. And the survivors were successful, as long as they were alive. But now they're pretty much all gone, and the young people rioting in Kashmir have no personal connection to the horrors of the Partition war, and they're ready, willing, anxious and able to risk having it happen again.
As I described in a recent article, India's last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted India's Hindus against the British colonialists, and the 1947 Partition war, which pitted Hindus and Muslims against each other, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. As we described in that article, the 1857 war led naturally to violence between Hindus and Muslims decades later, and then to the 1947 war.
Now we're seeing that the 1947 war is leading, decades later, to new violence between Hindus and Muslims. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're seeing a kind of repeat of 1947, and that this increasing violence will lead to a new generational crisis war between Hindus and Muslims, and from there to full-scale war between Pakistan and India. Indian Express and Kashmir Public Safety Act (1978) and Al-Jazeera (6-Sep)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Oct-16 World View -- New Anti-India violence erupts in Kashmir after police kill 12-year-old boy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The future of the Mideast
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
There have been a number of questions and comments about my recent articles on Russia's involvement in Syria.
TheLastPlainsman: "It appears, Mr. Xenakis, that you are still the target of Soviet, err, I mean, Russian, trolls. At least there aren't any China ones. Today, anyway."
Yes, Russia has hired hundreds of trolls to harass people like me. At one point last year, I was being attacked and harassed by three Russian trolls at the same time.
In a sense, the whole policy has backfired. Every journalist by now has become aware that they'll be attacked by Russian trolls if they write anything critical of Russia. So the result is that any person who actually believes what he's saying in defense of Bashar al-Assad or Vladimir Putin is automatically assumed to be a paid Russian troll. The Russians brought this on themselves.
Mickey Wasp: "It is clear from this completely fraudulent article he has penned that Mr. X is not above composing lies in order to further the nefarious agenda of the Zionist criminal enterprise known as Israel and Warmongers of Congress and the CIA.Anyone who can write a line such as "After years promising to help end the violence in Syria, Russian and Syrian warplanes have been indiscriminately attacking civilian neighborhoods and hospitals with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs. It does not take rocket science to see that Russia and Syria have no intention of ending the violence." is not fit to call themselves a journalist or researcher or columnist, instead they should be labelled as a disgusting black propagandist and seen as working for those who created the conflict in Syria."
All of these things that I listed -- attacking civilian neighborhoods and hospitals with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs -- have been widely reported in mainstream media and by government organizations in America, Europe, the Mideast and the United Nations. The only people saying that it's all made up are Russian and Syrian officials, as well as the army of paid Russian trolls.
Related Articles
Scotster brightmoth: "Amid the demonization of the Syrian government and leadership and the skillful use of social media by anti-government activists. Influenced by both mainstream and this alternative media, most people in the West do not know that Bashar al-Assad remains popular with many Syrians. Nor do they realize that Assad won an election two years ago."
What the heck does that have to do with anything? Bashar al-Assad is being charged with genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. What does it matter whether he won an election? Adolf Hitler won elections. Mao Zedong, Pol Pot and Josef Stalin were all very popular.
There's a very important point here. It's the popularity of genocidal leaders that makes the genocidal acts possible. An unpopular leader could never get away with trying to exterminate an entire religious or ethnic group, as Bashar al-Assad is trying to exterminate the Sunni Muslims. A genocidal leader has to be popular to get away with his depraved acts. So when you talk about al-Assad's popularity, my response is that of course he's popular, and has to be to get away with committing genocide.
Related Articles
Mickey Wasp: "We are experiencing the same demonization of Syria’s al-Assad and Russia’s Putin that we witnessed before those other two wars on Saddam and Gaddafi. Every possible allegation is made against them, often based on dubious and deceitful “evidence,” but it goes unchallenged because to question the propaganda opens a person to charges of being an “apologist” or “stooge” or if they post on Xenakis articles, a Russia troll."
If it quacks like a duck, then it must be a duck. You claim that you're a Texas redneck, but you quack like a Russian troll.
There was a good example this last week of how Russian trolls work. A Dutch-led team announced the findings of a major investigation proving that Russians in eastern Ukraine in July 2014 shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile that was transported by a Volvo truck from Russia, and then transported back to Russia after it had been used to shoot down the plane.
There are literally thousands of pieces of evidence, including intercepted phone calls, photos, analyzed and authenticated, videos, forensic examinations, witness statements, satellite images, and radar data. The amount of evidence is overwhelming.
But the Russian trolls have been out in force saying that all the photos are photoshopped, and all the evidence was faked. And the Washington Post reports that numerous reporters have been targeted by Russian government hackers. I've been targeted many times by both Russian and Chinese hackers. That's the game these Russian trolls play.
So when this Russian troll says that "every possible allegation is made against [al-Assad and Putin], often based on dubious and deceitful 'evidence,'" he's just being a good troll and saying the same things over and over despite overwhelming evidence. He should get an extra pay bonus from his trollmaster for being such a good troll.
Here's another point worth making. I believe the truth of everything that I write. I've written about 4,000 articles on my web site since 2003, and every word is based on extensive research and reporting. I have an archive of some 85,000 articles that I've copied and pasted, and I add a dozen or so articles to the archive every day. I have to be sure of every fact, because if I make a mistake, then I know that people will pound on me for it.
But that's not true of the Russian trolls. They know very well that Russians shot down the MH17 plane. They know very well that Bashar al-Assad is committing genocide. They know very well that Vladimir Putin is guilty of war crimes. But they're paid to lie, and they sell their souls every day to defend the greatest genocidal monsters of the 21st century so far.
Guardian (London) and Washington Post
Related Articles
Jasmine16: "President Assad wants to kill all Sunni Muslims? Come on. His wife is a Sunni. Many of his ministers and military officers are Sunnis. Many of his armed force officers are Sunnis. The majority of Syrian population prefer to live in government controlled areas. Even CIA and Qatar study reveal that 70% of Syrians-most of whom are (moderate) Sunnis, support him, while 20% are neutral, and only 10 % are against him. How on earth could the writer claims that the president wants " ... to massacre ... all Sunni Muslim civilians ...."?"
There is an extremely bloody historic fault line between Shia/ Alawites (like Bashar al-Assad) and Sunnis. It's pretty clear that al-Assad wants to kill a large segment of Syria's civilian population, possibly millions of people, on the other side of that historic fault line, but there's a problem of how to characterize those people -- what name should we give that group? Al-Assad just calls them all "terrorists," but obviously children in a school or women and children in a marketplace slaughtered by an al-Assad airstrike are not "terrorists" in any meaningful sense. So in view of the historic hatred between Alawites and Sunnis, I use the characterization "Sunni Muslims" as the most convenient way to describe the portion of the population that al-Assad wants to exterminate. It's possible that there's some kind of ethnic descriptor that could be used to make the characterization more precise, but I'm not aware of one.
TheLastConservative: "'In other words, it’s just more bizarre garbage coming out of the mouths of Russian officials.' Which is a lot like #*&$ coming out of the State Department isn't it? There are no good guys in this situation. We are obviously too incompetent and should get out of it. We've messed up enough as it is."
A lot of people feel that way. But a lot more people feel that America has a moral obligation to be policeman of the world, so it's unlikely that we'll get out of the situation.
TheLastPlainsman: "So now that confuses me- what is your prediction then with a US/Russia conflict but then us still being allied in the next world war? Is there any kind of timeline to consider?"
Russia's historic enemies are the Turks, the Mongols, and particularly the Crimean Tatars. Russia has absolutely no reason to start a war with the West, as many people fear.
As I've been writing for many years, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Russia will be our ally in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. Those who think that this is impossible should recall that the Soviet Union was our bitter enemy before and after World War II, but was our ally during World War II. Something like that will happen again. This prediction should make the Russian trolls very happy.
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Oct-16 World View -- Reader comments and questions on Syria, Russia, and Russian trolls thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
UN envoy Staffan de mistura asks al-Nusra fighters to leave Aleppo
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations envoy for Syria, gave a passionate speech on Thursday, where practically begged both sides to stop the genocide going on in east Aleppo in Syria.
De Mistura's point was that there are over 275,000 people in east Aleppo, but only about a thousand of them are members of Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) which recently renamed itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS) when it cut its ties to al-Qaeda.
De Mistura begged the al-Nusra fighters to leave the city, rather than to allow the destruction of Aleppo and the deaths of many of the 275,000 residents. Addressing himself directly to the al-Nusra fighters, de Mistura said:
"Can you please look at my eyes, and those of the Aleppo people. Of the 275,000 civilians that are there where you are, and confidently those 275,000 people that you're going to stay there, and that you remain there and keep hostage of your refusal to leave the city, because 1,000 of you are deciding on the destiny of 275,000 civilians. I would like you to reply to this question -- not to me, but to those 275,000 people -- and if you did decide to leave, in dignity, and with your weapons, to Idlib or anywhere you wanted to go, I personally am ready physically to accompany you."
It's a very dramatic offer, but the probability that it will be taken up is pretty close to zero. Even if 1,000 fighters left the city, Syria and Russia would claim that there were still more "terrorists." In the event that de Mistura played the part of a Pied Piper leading fighters out of Aleppo, it's even possible that Russian and Syrian warplanes would target him and kill him, and then say that it was Nato warplanes that killed him. Reuters and Asharq Al-Awsat
Related Articles
Russia and Syria have repeatedly been accused of war crimes and genocide in recent days by United Nations officials, in reaction Russian and Syrian warplanes indiscriminately attacking civilian neighborhoods and hospitals with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs,
UN envoy Staffan de Mistura renewed those accusations on Thursday by comparing the actions of Syria and Russia to the genocides at Srebrenica and Rwanda.
He said that, unless there's a "game changer," the city of Aleppo will by "totally destroyed" by Russia and Syria within 2 to 2 1/2 months, presumably killing most of the 275,000 residents, who are "civilians, not terrorists."
De Mistura said:
"There is only one thing that we are not ready to do - be passive, resignate ourselves to another Srebrenica, another Rwanda, which we are capable sadly today to recognize - written on that wall in front of us - unless something takes place.That doesn't mean that we will not -- and we will -- put this into context of a political process, because it's clear anything we do is not only about Aleppo is going to be also part of a political process that we will relaunch, we need to relaunch, we need a political horizon, based on what happens in the Security Council.
Unless there is any major game changer that may change the equation, this cruel, constant use of military activities, bombing, fighting destruction in eastern Aleppo will continue. Let's be honest, there is nothing that tells us that it will not continue. ...
The bottom line is - in maximum 2 months, 2 1/2 months the city of eastern Aleppo at this rate may be totally destroyed. We're talking about old city in particular. And thousands of Syrians - civilians, not terrorists -- will be killed. And many of the wounded. And thousands and thousands of them may try to become refugees in order to escape from there.
This is what you, we, the world will be seeing when we will be trying to celebrate Christmas, or the end of the year, if this continues at this rate, unimpeded. Homs [Syrian city] multiplied by 50."
It's been very clear for a long time that the depraved psychopath Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria, would very much like to see 275,000 residents of Aleppo killed, even though only all but a few thousand are innocent civilians. Syrian and Russian warplanes have been bombing hospitals, schools and civilian neighborhoods even in cities where al-Nusra was never present.
So de Mistura's passionate plea has no possibility whatsoever of making a difference.
At Friday's emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia will undoubtedly say that there more than just a few thousand of the 275,000 residents are "terrorists." Russia may even claim that almost of the 275,000 residents are "terrorists." AFP and BBC
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Oct-16 World View -- UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Concerns about possible US-Russia military conflict continue to grow
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Russia announced in April that it had met its objectives in Syria, and its military was withdrawing. Then, as the army of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad began collapsing again, Russia changed its mind. Russia's increasing military buildup in Syria indicates that it has no intention of withdrawing, and may even be treating Syria as a part or a protectorate of the Russian federation.
Russia's military on Tuesday announced that a battery of the S-300 air defense missile systems had been sent to Syria. This follows installation of a long-range S-400 missile defense system, and an array of other surface-to-air missiles. These have raised concerns among analysts, to which Russia's Defense Ministry responded: "I remind you that the S-300 is a purely defensive system and poses no threat to anyone. It’s not clear why the placement of S-300 in Syria has caused such a stir among our western colleagues."
No jihadist group has an air force, so the deployment of advanced air defense missile systems must be directed at someone else. There are several possibilities:
Military Times and AFP
Related Articles
Many analysts are concerned that Russia's military buildup in Syria means that Russia and the United States are headed for a military conflict when the next American administration takes office in January. I wrote about these concerns several days ago.
However, long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts that Russia, Iran and India will be allies of the West in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war against China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim countries.
Europe's last three generational crisis war all involved an invasion of Russia, but they were crisis wars for Europe, but non-crisis wars for Russia:
These were brutal wars for Russia, but a component of the war was that invading armies were defeated by the brutal Russian winter.
Russia's generational crisis wars were not fought with Europe. They were either internal rebellions, or they were fought with Turks and Mongols. Of particular importance were the Tatars, a tribe of Mongols that, under the leadership of Genghis Kahn, probably the greatest conqueror in the history of the world, they had defeated China in 1215, and then turned westward and conquered much of southern Russia by 1227. The Tatars in the Crimean Peninsula had intermingled with the central Asian Turks, and spoke a Turkic language. By the 1400s, they adopted Islam as their religion. It was in 1571 that the Crimean Tatars attacked and sacked Moscow, then ruled by Ivan the Terrible.
Russia under Catherine the Great fought a generational crisis war with the Ottoman Empire from 1762-83. Russia fought the Ottomans again under Tsar Nicholas I in the Crimean War in 1853-55. World War I was a generational crisis war for both Russia and Turkey, and it saw the destruction of both Tsarist Russia (Bolshevik Revolution) and Ottoman Turkey.
So Russia's great historical generational crisis wars have been not with the West, but with the Ottoman Turks, the Mongols, and the Crimean Tatars. And that's the way it's going to be in the next war as well.
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Oct-16 World View -- Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Mongolia signs new mining deal with Rio Tinto for future growth
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Mongolia is another story of wild spending when the times are good, resulting in huge debts when times are bad.
In 2011, Mongolia borrowed billions of dollars to invest in huge road and infrastructure projects. Now the country owes some $2 billion in public and private debt repayments in 2017 and early 2018, and is seeking a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. The country's tugrik currency has been falling sharply - more than 10% this year, causing the central bank to raise interest rates by 4.5% to 15%. (America's current Federal funds rate is between 0.25% and 0.5%. The eurozone, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and Japan, have negative interest rates in some cases.)
The reason that Mongolia's economy appeared invincible in 2011 is because the country has huge reserves of copper, coal and gold. So far this year, the country has grown by 1.4%, down from 3% last year. But in 2011, the economy grew by an astronomical 17.5%, mainly thanks to foreign investments.
Mongolia's economy has suffered for two reasons. First, China has been Mongolia's major market for its copper, coal and gold, but China's economy has been slowing down, and so China has been importing less of these products than previously.
The second reason is the fall in commodity prices. The sharp plunge in the last two years of the price of oil has harmed in economies in countries including Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Other commodities have fallen as well. In 2011, the price of copper was about $4.50 per pound; today it's around $2 per pound.
In August, the finance minister said the economy is in crisis and the government pitched a series of austerity measures and taxes that were later overturned by parliament. The government is now drafting an “Economic Stabilization Plan” which it hopes will restore its economy to stability. However, Generational Dynamics has been predicting for years that the existing global deflationary spiral would continue, and Mongolia will continue to be a part of that. Bloomberg and IntelliNews and CNN (23-Aug)
Mongolia hopes to recover from its economic growth by taking advantage of its rich natural resources. In May of this year, Mongolia signed a contract with Australian mining giant Rio Tinto to invest $5.3 billion in the development of the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper and gold mine.
There's an existing Oyu Tolgoi open pit mine, which has been producing copper since 2013. The underground mine is expected to produce a considerably higher grade of copper.
The mine will work 365 days a year, with two 12-hour shifts. At the peak of construction, the underground workforce is expected to be more than 3,000 people, 95% of them Mongolian workers. First production from the underground mine is expected in 2020, with the mine producing at full capacity by around 2030.
However, 2030 is a long way off, and Mongolia has to make debt repayments now. Mining.com and Reuters and Rio Tinto
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Oct-16 World View -- Mongolia in economic crisis asks the IMF for a bailout thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Russia accuses US of sabotaging ceasefire and 'allying with terror'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Monday's announcement by the U.S. State Department that it would end diplomatic talks with Russia over Syria is a watershed in the war in Syria because it ends a period of self-delusion by the Obama administration, while it signals the continuation of even worse self-delusion in Damascus Syria and Moscow Russia.
The State Dept. issued the following statement:
"The United States is suspending its participation in bilateral channels with Russia that were established to sustain the Cessation of Hostilities. This is not a decision that was taken lightly. The United States spared no effort in negotiating and attempting to implement an arrangement with Russia aimed at reducing violence, providing unhindered humanitarian access, and degrading terrorist organizations operating in Syria, including Daesh and al Qaeda in Syria.Unfortunately, Russia failed to live up to its own commitments - including its obligations under international humanitarian law and UNSCR 2254 - and was also either unwilling or unable to ensure Syrian regime adherence to the arrangements to which Moscow agreed. Rather, Russia and the Syrian regime have chosen to pursue a military course, inconsistent with the Cessation of Hostilities, as demonstrated by their intensified attacks against civilian areas, targeting of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, and preventing humanitarian aid from reaching civilians in need, including through the September 19 attack on a humanitarian aid convoy."
The self-delusion in the Obama administration that is apparently now ending is the belief that by making one concession after another to the Russians, then the Russians would be reasonable.
After years promising to help end the violence in Syria, Russian and Syrian warplanes have been indiscriminately attacking civilian neighborhoods and hospitals with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs, it's not rocket science to see that Russia and Syria have no intention of ending the violence.
The last straw for the Americans was the recent intentional attack by Syrian or Russian warplanes of a humanitarian aid convoy traveling to Aleppo, during a so-called "ceasefire." It was perfectly obvious that the Bashar al-Assad regime was never going to allow that humanitarian aid reach the victims of his bombings.
And yet, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov played the game where Kerry would concede something, Lavrov would promise to be better, and then Russia would do the opposite of its commitments. Russia has consistently made fools of the Obama administration, so I have to conclude that even President Obama has some tolerance limits. Whatever policy in Syria President Obama can claim to have had is now widely believed to be a failure, especially after last week's leaked audio tape, in which John Kerry implicitly blamed President Obama for the failed policy in Syria.
So now it's a new day in Syria. The scales have been lifted from the eyes of US Administration officials. Analysts are going to say that this announcement gives total freedom to the Russians to continue their extermination of Syrian Sunnis. That's true, but they're been exercising total freedom all along. This announcement just makes it more apparent, and perhaps more dangerous. US State Dept and BBC and Washington Post
Related Articles
Russia responded to the State Dept. announcement by accusing the US of sabotaging the Syria ceasefire, and of "[forging] an alliance with hardened terrorists" in order oust Bashar al-Assad.
According to a Foreign Ministry statement:
"[The US] has never exerted any real pressure on Jabhat Al-Nusra, done nothing for delineation to succeed and taken no action against its militants. ...We are becoming more convinced that in a pursuit of a much desired regime change in Damascus, Washington is ready to ‘make a deal with the devil’ [and to] forge an alliance with hardened terrorists, dreaming of turning back the course of history."
Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added: "Why could Washington not deliver what it promised – to delineate between the terrorists [the Al-Nusra Front] and the so-called moderate opposition?"
I've listened to several Russian officials, including Sergei Lavrov and spokesman Dmitry Peskov, make this same demand, and I can't even figure out what it means.
There are over 200,000 people in east Aleppo, and probably a few thousand, or maybe even 10-20,000, of them are members of Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) which recently renamed itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS) when it cut its ties to al-Qaeda.
So apparently the Russians are demanding that American troops go into Aleppo and figure out who belongs to al-Nusra and who doesn't, and then separate out the al-Nusra people and move them into a separate place so that the Syrian and Russian warplanes can kill them. In other words, it's just more bizarre garbage coming out of the mouths of Russian officials.
Bashar al-Assad's Shia/Alawite clan are historic enemies of the Sunni Muslims dating back centuries, and it's been clear for years that al-Assad has a highly emotional and highly self-delusional desire to exterminate the Sunni Muslims.
The intention of the Russians is clear from new reports that Russia is moving large squadrons of Sukhoi Su-24 and Su-34 fighter jets to the Humaymim Military Airfields in Syria. Russia claims that their purpose is to conduct air strikes against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Possibly even more ominous are reports that Russia is also deploying advanced SA-23 anti-missile systems to Syria. Since neither al-Nusra nor ISIS has an air force, we must presume that Russia is preparing for a possible military conflict with the United States. Russia Today and Russia Today and Almasdar News (Syria) and Fox News
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Oct-16 World View -- US cuts off talks with Russia, signaling turning point in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Terrorists attack another Indian army base in Kashmir
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
It's becoming increasingly clear that something serious has changed in relations between Pakistan and India, as a result of repeated acts of violence in the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir. It's clear that each country, in a generational Crisis era, is on a trend line to become increasing nationalistic and belligerent towards the other, and it's also clear that these trend lines will continue on the same path until they result in war. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's not a question of "if", but of "when," and with the rapid rise in nationalism on both sides, "when" may not be too far off.
Although relations between the two country leaders, Pakistan's president Nawaz Sharif and India's prime minister Narendra Modi, has never been warm, at least there were attempts to appear cordial. As recently as December of last year, Modi attended the wedding of Sharif's granddaughter in Lahore.
Then on January 2 there was a terrorist attack on an Indian air force base in Panthankot, Punjab. India investigated the terrorist attack and blamed Pakistan. Pakistan investigated the attack and said that India has staged the encounter to defame Pakistan. The India-Pakistan "peace dialog" was suspended indefinitely.
Tensions have really soared since July 8, when Burhan Wani, the leader of a separatist group in Kashmir, was killed by Indian police fire. Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day. Indian police responded with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters wounded or killed or blinded by the pellets. In a speech at the United Nations two weeks ago, Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif incited further violence in Kashmir by glorifying Burhan Wani and demanding independence for Indian-controlled Kashmir. India has accused Pakistan of actively supporting the riots.
As I've written several times in the past, it doesn't matter whether Pakistan is actively supporting the riots because, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the violence is "organic" or "indigenous," meaning that it comes from the people rather than from the politicians. India and Pakistan are returning to the massive violence of their last two generational crisis wars, India's 1857 Rebellion against Britain and the 1947 Partition war between Hindus and Muslims that following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
On September 18, terrorists made a major attack on an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.
Last week, India invaded Pakistani soil in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, with what Indian officials called a "surgical strike" on militants. This has infuriated the Pakistani population, and some kind of retaliation is expected. Pakistan Today and Outlook India and Indian Panorama
Related Articles
At this point, both the Pakistani and Indian people are furious, and nationalist feelings are soaring on both sides. Because Indian officials are becoming increasingly aware that any military action might trigger a war between the two nuclear powers, Indian officials are looking for ways to strike at what it calls "the terrorist state" diplomatically.
Shortly after the terrorist attack on the Indian army base in Uri, but before India's "surgical strike" in retaliation, Indian officials made a decision to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.
Pakistan is scheduled on November 9-10 to host the 19th summit of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in Pakistan's capital city Islamabad.
Indian officials decided to boycott the SAARC. Furthermore, India called the embassies of SAARC countries and demanded that they join the boycott. All the SAARC countries -- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, and Nepal -- except Pakistan joined the boycott, forcing Pakistan to indefinitely postpone the meeting. The statements issued by these nations indicated how shocked they were by the Uri attack, and said that the time was "not conducive" to a summit meeting.
SAARC was founded in 1985 for development and advancement of the geopolitical region of South Asia, but has been largely ineffective, possibly because this region of the world holds 1/5th of the world population, but has 2/5th of the world’s poor, Indian Express and India.com and The Nation (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan)
As of this writing on Sunday evening ET, a gun battle is continuing in the Kashmir Valley town of Baramulla where terrorists attacked an Army camp. This was four days after India had carried out "surgical strikes" against terrorist targets in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, and two weeks after a major attack on an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers. Indian Express
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed by India and Pakistan in 1960, and has been considered one of the most diplomatic achievements in history, a model agreement for sharing water resources between two countries. There are several rivers flowing through the vast Indus River Basin, generally from India to Pakistan, and the agreement controls how much water can be used by each country.
The IWT has survived three wars between Pakistan and India, but now India's prime minister Narendra Modi is threatening to revoke the treaty, and cut off some of the water flowing from India to Pakistan.
If India cut off the flow of water to Pakistan, it would be a disaster for Pakistan. Ironically, it could also be a disaster for India, because the blocked water would flood the Indus Valley.
According to a Pakistan official, any Indian step for disrupting water flow would carry considerable risk of war and hostilities. "If India tries to violate the treaty, there will be a befitting reaction from Pakistan." The Hindu and The News (Pakistan) and India Times and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Foreign Policy
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Oct-16 World View -- India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Leaked John Kerry audio reveals bitter Obama administration disagreements
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
As Russia and Syria step up the ferocity of their war crimes, with warplanes dropping barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs, and bunker bombs indiscriminately at civilian neighborhoods and hospitals in eastern Aleppo in Syria, a leaked audio released by the NY Times reveals US Secretary of State John Kerry repeatedly expressing frustration that President Barack Obama had repeatedly refused to use any military force, when the opportunity was available, to stop the bloody carnage.
It's widely believed that a major opportunity was lost after Syria's president Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas on his own people, in June 2013. Obama has previous set a "red line" that the US would take military action in this case, but he flip-flopped and allowed al-Assad to continue. The US military might have destroyed al-Assad's air force and blown up his runways, bringing an effective end to al-Assad's war crimes. Instead, the US simply relinquished Mideast hegemony to Syria and Russia. Syria and Russia have continued to use chemical weapons and increasingly destructive weapons on civilians. By withdrawing from the Mideast, and leaving a vacuum that Russia filled, it's thought that Obama permitted the greatest geopolitical and humanitarian disaster in decades to occur, and to worsen every day.
Only excerpts selected by the NY Times were released from the audio, but they included the following:
"I think you’re looking at three people, four people in the administration who have all argued for use of force, and I lost the argument. ... You have nobody more frustrated than we are."
The article doesn't mention who the other people are, but it's well-known that President Obama eschews anything beyond absolute minimal use of military force, no matter what the provocation.
It's also known that Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter have had harsh disagreements over Syria policy. A major disagreement surfaced just before the recent Syrian "ceasefire," when Kerry and the Russians had negotiated a bizarre plan that after the ceasefire ended the violence, then the US and Russia would cooperate on targeting "terrorists" in Syria. Carter was opposed to this plan, though Obama eventually OKed it. At any rate, the plan is moot now that the Syrians and Russians have taken advantage of the disastrous ceasefire to prepare for the massive bombing of Aleppo now taking place.
There are various conspiracy theories floating around about why Kerry's audio was leaked at this time. The most obvious one is that with the administration's Syria policy apparently headed for total disaster, Kerry leaked the audio to protect his own legacy at the expense of Obama's. Kerry may even still hope that the loons in Sweden will give him the Nobel Peace Prize when they announce it October 7. NY Times and VOA and NY Times (14-Sept)
Related Articles
The situation in Syria is proving to be both a geopolitical and humanitarian disaster of catastrophic proportions, but also a major embarrassment to President Obama, who is blamed by many people for unnecessarily allowing it to happen.
Now, in the last few months of the Obama administration, there are fears either that Obama might takes some military steps to salvage his own legacy in Syria, or that the administration that takes office in January will initiate some military action of its own.
There seems to be little doubt that the US military could overwhelm Russia's military in Syria, if the will were there to do it. However, Russia is warning that any US military campaign to oust the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad would have disastrous consequences for the region.
According to Maria Zakharova, spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry:
"If the US launches a direct aggression against Damascus and the Syrian Army, it would cause a terrible, tectonic shift not only in the country, but in the entire region.[With no government in Damascus, there will be a power vacuum in Syria, which] so-called moderates, who are, in reality, not moderate at all but just terrorists of all flavors, would fill; and there will be no dealing with them,
And later it would be aggravated the way it happened in Iraq. We know that [Saddam Hussein’s] Iraqi Army became the basis of the Islamic State. Everything that both the [US-led] coalition and Russia are fighting now stems from it."
What I found most interesting about this statement is that it doesn't suggest in any way that US military action would be resisted by Russia, only that it would have tragic consequences.
The problem is that the US administration really has no way to proceed at this point. Having refused to use military force in the past, when stopping al-Assad might have been as simple as destroying his warplanes and bombing his runways, they've been living in a fantasy world that if they're nice to the Russians then the Russians will do as they ask. The current massive destruction of Aleppo shows not only that the administration was wrong, but also that they were made fools of.
And having been made fools of, the fear is now that the US, in either this administration or the next, will use military action in Syria far beyond what the US has done before.
The following is a personal observation. Russia declared several months ago that it had met its objectives in Syria, and that it was withdrawing. After only a few weeks, it was clear that al-Assad's army would collapse without Russian support, and so Russia had to reverse its decision to withdraw. The observation is that the overwhelming assault on east Aleppo almost seems to be an act of desperation, hoping that a quick victory in Aleppo will be a complete defeat for the opposition and end the war.
There are two errors in this reasoning. First, because of the large size of east Aleppo, with a population over 200,000, it's very unlikely that a quick victory is possible, and it's possible that any real victory is impossible.
The second error is the belief that if a victory occurs, it will end the war. As I've written several times in the past, the war in Syria is a generational Awakening era war. The rules are different for these wars than for Crisis era wars. If a generational crisis war occurs, then it will end in some kind of explosive climax, usually a massive genocide, that will shock everyone so much that the war really will end. This is what happened in World War II, for example, after the fall of Berlin and the nuking of Japanese cities.
But in an Awakening era war, even genocidal actions do not end the war more than temporarily. This is obviously true in Syria, which is now split into regions controlled, by Turkey, the Kurds, ISIS, and the "moderate" rebels, leaving only "Alawite-istan," a small region in western Syria, still controlled by al-Assad.
So if the observation is correct that the chaotic destruction of east Aleppo is an act of desperation by Syria and Russia, then we may see the Syria war end in a way that Russia does not like. Russia Today and VOA
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
UN says Mosul could be 'largest man-made disaster in many years'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
On Friday, 24 Dassault Rafale jet fighters operating from the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the eastern Mediterranean began striking targets belonging to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq (behind Baghdad). Each jet was reportedly armed with four 250kg laser-guided bombs, and one sortie was carried out roughly every three minutes.
According to a military spokesman, the airstrikes “have targeted military commanders, administration officials, foreign fighter facilitators, amirs, security commanders, communication leaders, and senior shura council leadership." The Charles de Gaulle is on its third mission since February 2015 in support of the US-led coalition fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
France is stepping up its attacks on ISIS targets near Mosul in preparation for the Great Battle for Mosul, which officials from Iraq, Britain and France have all suggested could begin around mid-October.
The Pentagon is preparing by a new deployment of US forces to Iraq. The Pentagon announced on Wednesday that it was deploying 615 additional US soldiers to Iraq in preparation for the recapture of Mosul, bringing the number of US troops authorized for Iraq to over 5000.
ISIS is also preparing for battle. After ISIS first entered Mosul in June 2014, it boasted about the fact that it was removing all the concrete barriers that the Iraqi army had placed around Mosul because they were no longer needed. Now ISIS is moving the concrete barriers back into place.
ISIS is also digging a trench, measuring two meters in depth and width, on one side of the concrete barriers. This was inspired by the Battle of the Trench, in 627. Mohammed and his army were in Medina, and an alliance of Jews and tribes from Mecca attacked Medina. The attack failed because Mohammed's army dug a trench around Medina, which nullified the invader's cavalry.
The trenches that ISIS is building will not surround the entire city. The trenches supposedly connected to a network of secret tunnels ISIS is building to aid in fighting a guerrilla war inside the city.
There are some 1.8 million people in Mosul. Even if the Great Battle for Mosul begins in two or three weeks, as some officials are suggesting, it will not end quickly. Estimates are that it will not be over until mid or late 2017. France 24 and AFP and Long War Journal and The Hill
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Iraq director Bruno Geddo warned that up to one million people could need assistance. According to Geddo:
"Mosul has the potential to be one of the largest man made disasters for many, many years. More than a million could be displaced as a result of the forthcoming offensive.We are planning for at least 700,000 who will be in need of assistance, shelter, food, water, everything that you need in a situation of humanitarian disaster."
The UN agency is hoping to have 11 camps finished by the end of the year with the capacity to hold 120,000 people, while Iraqi authorities expect to be able to house 150,000 more, he explained. Deutsche Welle and Al Bawaba
Related Stories
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Oct-16 World View -- Iraq, ISIS and the West prepare for the Great Battle for Mosul to begin soon thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Oct-2016)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Web Log Summary - 2017
Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004
Web Log - December, 2017
Web Log - November, 2017
Web Log - October, 2017
Web Log - September, 2017
Web Log - August, 2017
Web Log - July, 2017
Web Log - June, 2017
Web Log - May, 2017
Web Log - April, 2017
Web Log - March, 2017
Web Log - February, 2017
Web Log - January, 2017
Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004