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It's almost always the victim's fault when computer networks are hacked
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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So President Obama is pissed off because Russian hackers hacked into the Democratic National Committee, and so, just three weeks before he's leaving office, he ordered 35 Russian diplomats to leave the country.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin, who always permits his security people to threaten and harass American diplomats just for the fun of it, announced on Friday that Russia would not reciprocate. Instead, Putin invited the children of US diplomats in Moscow to a New Year's party in the Kremlin.
In the back and forth between Obama and Putin, I sometimes feel as if I'm watching the psychodrama of delusional politicians -- a tale rooted in old grudges and revenge plots hatched in one-sided peace negotiations over Ukraine and Syria over eight long years -- played out on the international stage. Russia Direct (5-May) and Belfast Telegraph
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As a Senior Software Engineer who has developed many web sites, I'm pretty much in the camp of "blame the victim" when a company's networks get hacked. At one company where I worked several years ago, I told my managers that they needed to encrypt the social security numbers in their database, and I even told them how to do it easily. I reminded them again after one of their servers got hacked. But the problem is that protecting your networks doesn't generate sales, and Gen-X managers think that when a Boomer software engineer tells them what to do, they'd rather eat mud than do it.
So that's one reason there's a news story almost every week about another company whose networks have been hacked. I write about these every now and then.
However, the real monster hack, the mother of all hacks, was announced last year. Chinese hackers stole the personal and security information of many millions of Americas from the servers at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and Department of the Interior. That hack included the SF-86 forms that everyone fills out when applying for security clearances.
There is little doubt that the Chinese military is still sifting through this massive amount of data and using it in a variety of ways -- from simple blackmail and extortion of individuals to the creation of sophisticated "spear phishing" e-mail messages used to hack into networks of other agencies and corporations. This massive collection of espionage data will be a powerful weapon in any future military confrontations.
OK, so the DNC hack hurt President Obama's feelings, while the OPM hack is putting the survival of the country at risk. So which is more important? Why, the DNC hack is more important, because President Obama's feelings are always more important than the survival of the country. That's why there have been no expulsions of Chinese diplomats.
I was really appalled when I read the stories about Hillary Clinton's home server and other flagrantly stupid violations of common sense. Apparently the same stupidity pervaded all of the networks of the Democratic National Committee, so it's not surprising at all that they got hacked. The CIA and other intelligence agencies have concluded that the perpetrators were linked to Russia's government, and I believe them, but the DNC servers were apparently so poorly protected that the hacker could have been from anywhere.
I last wrote about the hack of the DNC's computers in July. At that time, I made the following points:
So my personal conclusion is that most likely explanation of what happened was that the hacker tried to hack both parties' servers, but succeeded only with the Democratic party servers, and then released the e-mails because that's what hackers do, and probably didn't care who won the election.
It's not always the victim's fault when computers are hacked, of course. Hacking is a huge worldwide industry, and hackers are always finding new ways to get around firewalls or to install malware or ransomware. A good idea is to keep separate backups of all your data, so that if you're hacked then you still have the backup. All you can do is reduce the probability that you'll be hacked, and for that you need to be totally paranoid. Lawfare (11-Mar-2016)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Dec-16 World View -- Hacking of Democratic National Committee computers - I blame the victim thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Dec-2016)
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Damascus Syria is without water after reservoirs were poisoned
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There have been two major ceasefire announcements so far this years, plus a few smaller ones. None lasted more than a few days.
But Russia and Syria have previously declared that a victory in Aleppo would mean victory in the entire war, and an end to the fighting. The rebel groups would be so decimated, despondent and dispirited that they'd lose the will to fight. So Russia's president Vladimir Putin had to make good on that promise.
So even though the rebel groups fighting against Syria's president Bashar al-Assad are nowhere near defeated, Russia and Turkey on Thursday declared that there would be a nationwide ceasefire. Let's point out a few things.
"We as a nation ... are delivering a message that the Syrian state is determined to recover all regions from the terrorists and restore security, infrastructure, and everything else that was destroyed in both human and material aspects."
In fact, rebel groups control vast regions of Syria, and al-Assad is left in control of a small part of country mockingly called "Alawite-istan," named for al-Assad's ethnic group, Alawite.
Why would the Syrian rebel groups sign on to the agreement? A representative gave the answer in an interview on RFI on Thursday (my transcription):
"Obviously after Aleppo I think everyone realizes that there is no limit to the level of violence and barbarism that can be exercised against any target, including hospitals and civilians, to reach some object. And therefore if one get that to stop, the military solution should absolutely be stopped."
In other words, some of the "moderate" rebel groups signed on, but only to stop the bombing.
And that's the problem with the whole deal. There's no compelling force behind the ceasefire. It's all transitory. As soon as any one of a number of factors on the ground changes, the whole ceasefire will unravel, as previous ones have done.
I consider Bashar al-Assad to be the most volatile of the participants. His air force is going to continue bombing al-Nusra and ISIS forces, many of whole will be indistinguishable from the "moderate" rebels that he's promised not to target. He considers all of these rebels to be like cockroaches to be exterminated, and he seems likely to be unable to control his impulses and target any of them. As soon as another barrel bomb hits a hospital or a marketplace or a hospital, it will be clear that there's no ceasefire.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also very volatile. He used to get along with al-Assad until 2011, when al-Assad's bombers started targeting innocent women and children, including Palestinians in a refugee camp near Latakia. Erdogan must have had to swallow hard to sign this deal, as he's watch Syrian and Russian bombers target Turkmens and other ethnic groups related to Turks, as well as Palestinians, whom Erdogan supports.
Iran could be pretty volatile as well. They're known to be strongly against any Turkish presence in Syria, and Erdogan has no intention of withdrawing from northern Syria. Also, there are pockets of Shias living in regions controlled by rebels, and Iran will feel compelled to protect them.
The only thing that's really changed on the ground in the last few weeks is that the Russians have taken control of Aleppo. The rest of Syria is still an uncontrolled scattered collection of militias, armies and jihadists of various ethnicities and religious sects.
Peace talks are scheduled to be held within a month in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan, assuming that the ceasefire is still holding. The choice of Kazakhstan makes it clear that this is deal involving Turkey, Russia and Iran, and not including the United States, the United Nations, or the European Union. BBC and Russia Today and Gulf News (Dubai) and Vice News
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Four million people in Damascus, Syria's capital city, have been without water for five days after water reservoirs were poisoned with diesel. It's not clear who was responsible for the poisoning, but it's believed that the perpetrators are some of the same militias that signed on to the peace agreement on Thursday. However, they claim that they're not responsible, since they would be harmed more than anyone else.
Despite the ceasefire, Syrian warplanes have been bombing a valley northwest of Damascus to recapture the region that provides most of the water to Damascus. Reuters and Middle East Eye and Russia Today
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Dec-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Dec-2016)
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Mongolia's herders faces a 'dzud' weather catastrophe
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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An extremely harsh winter in Mongolia is sending temperatures to -50°C (-70°F), causing a humanitarian disaster, and threatening both lives and livelihoods.
Mongolia appears to be headed for another winter "dzud." The word "dzud" refers to a phenomenon that appears to be somewhat unique to Mongolia.
It usually occurs after a dry summer combines with heavy snowstorms creating an ice crust that makes it difficult for livestock, mostly cows, sheep and goats, to dig through to reach grass. This year, the dry summer in the northeast and late autumn rains means the dzud risk is high. Heavy snowfall from October has refrozen after more heavy snow in November.
A third of Mongolia's population rely directly on livestock -- milk, cheese and meat for food, dung for heating, fur for clothing, and income from selling these items. Over 1.2 million livestock died in last winter's dzud, leaving tens of thousands of herders in poverty. The worst dzud in memory occurred in 2010, killing 8 million animals. UB Post (Mongolia) and Deutsche Welle
In 2011, Mongolia economy grew by an astronomical 17.5%, thanks to its huge reserves of copper, coal and gold, making the economy seem invincible. Instead of saving some of that money, Mongolia borrowed billions of dollars more to invest in huge road and infrastructure projects. Now Mongolia is in a major economic crisis, thanks to reduced purchases by China and falling commodity prices, at a time when it's being hit hard by a new harsh winter "dzud."
In the midst of this economic and financial crisis, the Buddhist leader the Dalai Lama visited Mongolia's capital city Ulaanbaatar in November for a six-day visit. More than half of Mongolia's population are Buddhist, and tens of thousands of them flocked to see the Dalai Lama, with some traveling hundreds of miles.
China does not like the Dalai Lama, as he is worshipped by millions of Tibetan Buddhists in China. So China punished Mongolia by closing part of the border, leaving hundreds of trucks carrying copper and coal backed up on the highway in sub-zero temperatures.
Mongolian officials quickly saw the error of their ways. Foreign minister Tsend Munkh-Orgil made what is apparently an official apology to China:
"You can understand that during the full term of this government, the Dalai Lama will not be allowed to visit Mongolia even for religious purposes."
According to a Chinese analyst: "China shall accept Mongolia's apology because China doesn't want to create friction in Northeast Asia either, particularly at a time when it is facing tensions with other nations, such as Japan and South Korea." Shanghaiist and Global Times (Beijing) and Al-Jazeera
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Dec-16 World View -- China punishes Mongolia for Dalai Lama visit during financial crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Dec-2016)
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Following the money, Sao Tome and Principe switches allegiance
from Taiwan to China
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A week after Italy's government announced that it would bail out the failing the Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) bank, with a "bail-in" that would put the life savings of tens of thousands of depositors at risk, the European Central Bank said on Tuesday that MPS's financial situation is deteriorating far more rapidly than expected.
MPS has €55.2 billion in bad loans. Three weeks ago, MPS said that it had enough funds to stay afloat for 11 months. Then last week, MPS said that it would run out of money within four months.
According to one financial analyst:
"It’s a national tragedy. Monte Paschi survived the Inquisition, the unification of Italy, fascism and two world wars. But it couldn’t survive the mismanagement and corruption of bankers and politicians in the 21st century."
The government of Italy announced last week that the size of the bailout would be €5 billion, the amount needed to allow MPS to meet its immediate obligations and avoid bankruptcy. However, the ECB said that MPS's financial position has suffered a "rapid deterioration" during the period from November 30 to December 21, now the €5 billion figure is too small. €8.8 billion will be required to get past the immediate emergency.
It's believed that the "rapid deterioration" is being caused by run on the bank. It's known that from June to September of this year, customers removed deposits of €6.7 billion, and it's believed that this run on deposits is continuing, or even accelerating and spiraling out of control.
ECB rules require that if any government bails out the country's banks, then a percentage of the bailout must come from the assets of investors who had invested in the shares and bonds issued by the bank. In most countries, that would "bail in" sophisticated investors, who would then "take a haircut." But Italy has a special problem that many ordinary savers have invested their life savings in bonds, so that would put their life savings at risk. This situation has been the subject of intense public debate in Italy at least since June, and that would explain why depositors have been rushing to move their funds out of the bank.
Italy's government is looking for a way under ECB rules to avoid having to "bail in" bond holders. Since MPS is still technically solvent, the plan is to take advantage of a loophole in the ECB rules by calling the cash injection a "precautionary recapitalization" rather than a bailout. However, this path limits the amount of money that the government can inject into the bank, so it's far from clear that it will work.
Jens Weidmann, the president of Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, says that Italy's bailout plan requires careful scrutiny:
"For the measures planned by the Italian government [to work], the bank must be economically healthy at its core. The money cannot be used to cover losses [that are] already expected. All this must be carefully examined. ...These [rules] aim to protect taxpayers in particular and keep responsibility on investors. Government bailout is only meant to be a last resort, that's why the bar is high."
Italy's rescue plan requires approval by both the EU and the ECB.
Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) was founded in 1472, and is the world's oldest operating bank. Seeking Alpha and MarketWatch and Financial Post
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China scored a victory over Taiwan on Monday, when the nation Sao Tome and Principe officially resumed diplomatic relations with China after breaking relations with Taiwan. The former Portuguese colony Sao Tome and Principe is an impoverished island nation off the coast of west-central Africa with a population of almost 200,000.
China will not have diplomatic relations with any nation that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan. There are now about 20 countries that still have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
It's often a question of money. China would like Taiwan to be recognized by as few countries as possible, and so China will offer financial aid and investments to a country willing to switch. It sometimes gets into a bidding war, but China is much wealthier and always wins such battles.
Other countries, including The Gambia, Malawi, and Senegal, have in recent years broken off relations with Taiwan, in the hope of enjoying financial largesse from China. China has not always been willing to establish relations with these countries because of a long-standing "diplomatic truce" between China and Taiwan, designed to prevent countries from playing China and Taiwan against each other. However, China abandoned the diplomatic truce after this year's election as president of Tsai Ing-wen, who is lukewarm to the "One-China Policy" that makes Taiwan a province of China.
The United States officially recognizes the One-China Policy and does not officially recognize Taiwan, but has a close relationship with Taiwan anyway. President-elect Donald Trump has said that he'll review the US position.
It's not just China who is playing this diplomatic game. After Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, it declared two Georgia territories, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to be independent nations until Moscow's protection. Only five countries sided with Russia in recognizing at least one of the two territories as independent. In 2011, Tuvalu recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia in return for "promising areas for bilateral cooperation [with Russia], including trade, fisheries and education." However, Tuvalu switched sides in 2013, for a reason that was not explained. Med Africa Times (Switzerland) and China Post (Taiwan) and New Republic (2-Apr-2014)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Dec-16 World View -- Bank run worsens Italy's banking crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Dec-2016)
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Palestinians declare a defeat for the forces of darkness
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The United States Security Council on Friday passed Resolution 2334, which says that Israel's West Bank settlements constitute "flagrant violation of international law." Similar resolutions in the passed have failed because of a United States veto, but in a major reversal of policy by the Barack Obama administration, the United States abstained on Friday's vote, allowing the resolution to pass.
The Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, interviewed on the BBC, was ebullient, and said that the resolution was a major victory for Palestinians and the "two-state solution, and a defeat for the forces of darkness (my transcription):
"This is a day for peace. This is a day for hope. This is a day when the international community stood tall. To tell the Palestinians and Israelis that peace is possible. Through the establishment of a two-state where the state of Palestine can live side by side with the state of Israel in peace and security on the 1967 line.This is a day where the international community unanimously have told the Israeli government stop the settlements. Stop the dictation. Stop the occupation. This is a day when the international community have told the Israeli people if you want to live in peace and security, it's not going to be through dictation and occupation and settlements. It's going to be through fairness, through neighborly relations, through the freedom of the Palestinian people, through international law. I hope this clearcut message to the Israeli government will be understood. I think that this is a major defeat for the forces of darkness and extremism and dictation. [Inaudible] for Palestinians and Israelis in peace. So today, it's really a day of hope not only for Palestinians and Israelis, but for the whole region as a whole, for the people of this region as a whole."
Resolution 2334 contains the following text:
"Guided by the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, and reaffirming, inter alia, the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by force,Reaffirming the obligation of Israel, the occupying Power, to abide scrupulously by its legal obligations and responsibilities under the Fourth Geneva Convention ...,
Condemning all measures aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, including, inter alia, the construction and expansion of settlements, transfer of Israeli settlers, confiscation of land, demolition of homes and displacement of Palestinian civilians, in violation of international humanitarian law and relevant resolutions,
Expressing grave concern that continuing Israeli settlement activities are dangerously imperiling the viability of the two-State solution based on the 1967 lines ...
1. Reaffirms that the establishment by Israel of settlements in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, has no legal validity and constitutes a flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to the achievement of the two-State solution and a just, lasting and comprehensive peace;
2. Reiterates its demand that Israel immediately and completely cease all settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem, and that it fully respect all of its legal obligations in this regard. ..."
In another interview, Saeb Erekat said that the Palestinians will pull membership in the United States for the State of Palestine. United Nations and WAFA (Palestine News & Information Agency)
One can't help but laugh at the statement by Saeb Erekat quoted above, and his victory over the forces of darkness, but statements by other diplomats were equally idiotic.
The problem is this "two-state solution" fantasy. The very first Generational Dynamics prediction that I wrote was in May 2003, when President George Bush announced his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace." President Bush called for a Palestinian State by 2005, to live in peace and security side by side with Israel. It provided a series of steps for both sides to follow, mostly having to do with eliminating violence against both Palestinian and Israeli civilians.
As I wrote at that time, the Jews and Arabs were headed not for a two-state solution, but for a full-scale war, as the generations of survivors of the 1949 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel died off. Since I wrote that analysis, there are certainly no signs of a two-state solution, as there have been numerous Mideast wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza and Libya, with skirmishes in other countries. The Mideast is still headed for full-scale war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see all that. Talking about a two-state solution today is nothing more than political posturing in order to gain power and votes. Any politician who actually believes what he's saying is living in fantasyland.
Here's what Samantha Power, US Ambassador to the UN, said after the Security Council vote:
"One cannot simultaneously champion Israeli settlements and champion a viable two-state solution that would end the conflict. One has to make a choice between settlements and separation. In 2011, the United States vetoed a resolution that focused exclusively on settlements, as if settlements were the only factor harming the prospects of a two-state solution. The circumstances have changed dramatically. Since 2011, settlement growth has only accelerated. Since 2011, multiple efforts to pursue peace through negotiations have failed. And since 2011, president Obama and secretary Kerry have repeatedly warned publicly and privately that the absences of progress toward peace and continued settlement expansion was going to put the two-state solution at risk and threaten Israel's stated objective to remain both a Jewish state and a democracy."
This statement, which attempts to explain the Obama administration's complete reversal of policy, makes no sense at all. There are no prospects for a two-state solution, or Power would have been more specific. Instead, Power uses her statement to blame, by implication, Israel for the failure of the two-state solution.
Even under the most benign interpretation of Obama's policy reversal, I cannot see how it improves chances for any peaceful solution, or for how it benefits the Israelis, the Palestinians, the UN, or anyone else. Under any reasonable interpretations, all of those groups are hurt by the policy reversal.
It was clear from the start that this policy reversal would have consequences that would have to be dealt with. If Obama had made the policy reversal a year or two ago, then he would have had to deal with the consequences, and Power's statement might be more credible. Instead, Obama waited until three weeks before leaving office, so that other people will have to deal with the consequences, while he sits on the sidelines and probably provides commentary.
Barack Obama and Israel's president Benjamin Netanyahu have always had a visceral dislike for each other. President Obama comes from an activist community of black leaders many of whom are openly anti-Semitic (google the words "anti-semitic black leaders" for plenty of examples). This doesn't mean that Obama himself is anti-Semitic, but the company he keeps certainly inflames the situation. Netanyahu has returned the favor by being openly hostile to Obama, including open support for Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election. So it's possible that Obama may simply have been looking for a way to get revenge against Netanyahu before leaving office.
Anti-Semitism has always been prevalent in America, as I wrote in 2006. In the Catholic Church, it was official policy for centuries that Jews were responsible for the murder of Jesus Christ, and that all Jews must be punished for it. A Papal bull issued by Pope Paul IV on July 14, 1555, began:
"As it is completely absurd and improper in the utmost that the Jews, who through their own fault were condemned by God to eternal servitude, can under the pretext that pious Christians must accept them and sustain their habitation, are so ungrateful to Christians, as, instead of thanks for gracious treatment, they return contumely, and among themselves, instead of the slavery, which they deserve, they manage to claim superiority."
This teaching, which goes on to justify forcing Jews to live in ghettos, was never withdrawn and was certainly known to Hitler. It was only reversed on April 13, 1986, when Pope John Paul II gave a major speech at the Great Synagogue of Rome.
In this generational Crisis period, it appears that anti-Semitism is reviving, just as all forms of racism, xenophobia and nationalism are increasing in countries around the world. This is undoubtedly part of the scenario that will lead the Mideast to full-scale war as described above.
Dennis Ross, a Mideast diplomat who served under both Presidents Clinton and Bush, said in a BBC interview that the UN Security Council resolution was the wrong way to go (my transcription):
The language in the resolution equates all settlement activity beyond the June 4 1967 lines, and yet the position of the US as stated by the president in the two speeches he gave in 2011 was that the final border should be determined by settlement blocks and swaps. ...What I'm suggesting - if you turn this into a legal question, then you're not going to find a simple way, or any way, of actually resolving this through negotiations. When you turn this conflict into a legal conflict, when in fact it is a historic conflict between two national movements, then you move away from being able to come up with compromises that would be able to resolve the issues. I think what we want to do is find a way to have negotiations, not find a way try to try to impose things from an international perspective, meaning from a UN perspective, or even from a legal perspective, because that isn't going to produce an outcome."
Of all the statements from politicians that I heard, this is probably the closest to making sense. None of the politicians that I heard who praised the UNSC resolution explained how the resolution in any way promoted peace. Ross's statement that it's a "historic conflict between two national movement" comes closest to the Generational Dynamics analysis.
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After the UNSC vote, a furious Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered that steps be taken to respond:
"I share ministers' feelings, anger and frustration vis-à-vis the unbalanced resolution that is very hostile to the State of Israel, and which the [UN] Security Council passed in an unworthy manner. From the information that we have, we have no doubt that the Obama administration initiated it, stood behind it, coordinated on the wording and demanded that it be passed."
Reports indicate that Israel has suspended working ties with 12 of the Security Council countries that supported the resolution: Britain, France, Russia, China, Japan, Ukraine, Angola, Egypt, Uruguay, Spain, Senegal and New Zealand.
Even if these suspensions are only temporary, what this shows is that this reversal of US policy has not only harmed the Palestinians and Israels, it's harmed the United Nations itself. Israeli Prime Minister and The Hill and Jerusalem Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Dec-16 World View -- Furious Israel retaliates against UN for condemning West Bank settlements thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Dec-2016)
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European lenders relent and unblock the frozen bailout loan
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Greece's finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos has sent a Christmas card to journalists, apparently mocking Greece's bailout lenders, and accusing them of being as stingy and hard-hearted as Ebenezer Scrooge in the 1843 book A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens.
Greece's Christmas card displays the picture shown above of Ebenezer Scrooge meeting the ghost of his dead partner Jacob Marley. The picture was an illustration by John Leech in the original 1843 edition. The picture in Tsakalotos's card was accompanied by the following caption:
"Perhaps in all of our Christmas tales there is a terrifying character like Ebenezer who receives the season's spirit in an immense solitude, and closed like an oyster. And maybe our Christmas tale is no exception.But, dear friends and colleagues, our wishes go beyond all the Ebenezers of this world. We don't give up on our wishes."
Greece is undoubted alluding to the decision by Greece's creditors to cancel a planned bailout loan, after Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras announced new social spending -- a one-time pre-Christmas bonus to poor pensioners, and a reduction in taxes for Greece's Aegean Sea islands whose tourist industry had suffered because of the refugee crisis. Greece needs the bailout loan to meet its debts and avoid bankruptcy.
Charles Dickens describes Ebenezer Scrooge as follows:
"Oh! But he was a tight-fisted hand at the grindstone, Scrooge! a squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching, covetous, old sinner! Hard and sharp as flint, from which no steel had ever struck out generous fire; secret, and self-contained, and solitary as an oyster. The cold within him froze his old features, nipped his pointed nose, shrivelled his cheek, stiffened his gait; made his eyes red, his thin lips blue; and spoke out shrewdly in his grating voice. A frosty rime was on his head, and on his eyebrows, and his wiry chin. He carried his own low temperature always about with him; he iced his office in the dog-days; and didn’t thaw it one degree at Christmas.External heat and cold had little influence on Scrooge. No warmth could warm, no wintry weather chill him. No wind that blew was bitterer than he, no falling snow was more intent upon its purpose, no pelting rain less open to entreaty. Foul weather didn’t know where to have him. The heaviest rain, and snow, and hail, and sleet, could boast of the advantage over him in only one respect. They often “came down” handsomely, and Scrooge never did.
Nobody ever stopped him in the street to say, with gladsome looks, “My dear Scrooge, how are you? When will you come to see me?” No beggars implored him to bestow a trifle, no children asked him what it was o’clock, no man or woman ever once in all his life inquired the way to such and such a place, of Scrooge. Even the blind men’s dogs appeared to know him; and when they saw him coming on, would tug their owners into doorways and up courts; and then would wag their tails as though they said, “No eye at all is better than an evil eye, dark master!”
But what did Scrooge care! It was the very thing he liked. To edge his way along the crowded paths of life, warning all human sympathy to keep its distance, was what the knowing ones call “nuts” to Scrooge."
So that's what Alexis Tsipras and other Greek ministers think of Greece's creditors. Tsipras may particularly be thinking of Germany's cranky finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who would undoubtedly be quite effective playing the part of Scrooge in a new production of A Christmas Carol.
In 1843, an elderly man like Scrooge would have been of the same generational archetype of today's Silent Generation, the generation that grew up during World War II.
Scrooge would have grown up during the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars. Many people in Scrooge's generation had died in wars or in poverty. Dickens talks about prisons, Union workhouses, the Treadmill and the Poor Law. London's Panic of 1825 had been financially devastating.
In Dickens' story, the three ghosts that visit him convince him to forget all that, and start being generous with his time and money. Tsipras is hoping the Schäuble and Europe's other finance ministers turn out the same way. Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol, 1843 edition (Gutenberg) and Kathimerini and Deutsche Welle and AFP
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There's no word about whether Greece's Christmas card played any part in the European officials' Christmas eve change of heart, but Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Saturday that negotiations would restart for the debt bailout loan to be unfrozen in January.
The softening the Eurogroup's hearts came about not because of visits by three ghosts, but because Greece's finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos had sent a letter saying that the pension bonus was a one-time thing, and reaffirming the government's commit to financial reforms. According to Eurogroup officials and Dijsselbloem:
"We have received a letter by the Greek authorities in response to the concerns raised by the institutions as well as the Euro Working Group on the recently legislated fiscal measures.We have been reassured by the accompanying assessment of the institutions indicating that their initial significant concerns, both on process and on substance, are alleviated by this letter as regards MoU commitments, especially regarding pension. ...
I'm happy to conclude that we have cleared the way ... to go ahead with the decision-making procedures for the short-term debt measures, which will be conducted in January."
As Scrooge said to Bob Cratchit:
"A merry Christmas, Bob! A merrier Christmas, Bob, my good fellow, than I have given you, for many a year! I’ll raise your salary, and endeavor to assist your struggling family, and we will discuss your affairs this very afternoon, over a Christmas bowl of smoking bishop, Bob! Make up the fires, and buy another coal-scuttle before you dot another i, Bob Cratchit!"
And so, as Tiny Tim observed, "God bless Us, Every One!" Reuters and Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Dec-16 World View -- Greece calls its European lenders 'Ebenezer Scrooge' from A Christmas Carol thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Dec-2016)
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Bartella Iraq celebrates Christmas after liberation from ISIS
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Christians from around the region are flocking to Bartella, Iraq, to join in the celebration of Christmas, the first since Bartella was liberated.
Bartella, just 24 km from Mosul, used to be home to thousands of Assyrian Christians. They were forced to flee in August 2014, when the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) overran Mosul and neighboring villages. Bartella was liberated from ISIS two months ago, on October 20, by the Iraqi army operation to recapture Mosul. Rudaw (Iraq, Kurdistan) and Agora Magazine (Italy)
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After Anis Amri, the 24 year old perpetrator of Monday's terror attack in Berlin, killing 12 people and injuring dozens by ramming a large, hijacked truck into a crowd at a Christmas market, was shot to death in Milan Italy by police on Friday, there have been hundreds of investigators all over Europe trying to determine whether Amri had help from other jihadists.
Amri himself was a Tunisian national who sought asylum in several European country, including Germany, but was refused. He had a criminal record in Italy and Tunisia, and spent four years in an Italian prison before traveling to Germany.
Tunisian authorities have arrested three people on suspicion of being part of a "terrorist cell... connected to the terrorist Anis Amri." Two of the three were arrested in the capital city Tunis.
The third arrest was Amri's own 18-year-old nephew, Fedi, his sister's son, arrested in Amri's home town of Oueslatia. During initial questioning, Fedi said that he had been in contact with uncle Anis through the mobile app Telegram, which provides for encrypted communications that can't be traced. He also said that uncle Anis had sent him money to come to Germany, and asked him to pledge allegiance to ISIS. Sky News and AP
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Hundreds of people rallied at the Bardo Museum in Tunis, Tunisia's capital city, on Saturday, protesting the lack of government action to prevent jihadists who fought overseas from returning to the country without facing punishment.
The news that Anis Amri, a Tunisian, was the perpetrator of last week's terror act in Berlin has embarrassed and infuriated the Tunisian people.
Tunisians are proud that their country launched the "Arab Spring" that began in 2011, and the resulting transition of power was largely peaceful. The Arab Spring uprisings were triggered on December 17, 2010, when a street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi set fire to himself in Sidi Bouzid in central Tunisia, in protest of the police confiscation of his vegetable cart. After days of clashes between protesters and the police, long-time dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee the country to exile in Saudi Arabia.
However, that peaceful transition has come at a price. Since its 2011 revolution, Tunisia has faced repeated jihadist attacks, killing more than 100 soldiers and policemen, as well as about 20 civilians and 59 foreign tourists, according to official figures.
In March of last year, two terrorist gunmen infiltrated security at the well-known Bardo Museum in Tunis, right next door to the parliament building. They took and killed 22 hostages, with 50 people injured. Almost all of the casualties were foreign tourists.
Tunisians were still in shock from that attack, when another attack occurred in June. A gunman disguised as a tourist opened fire at a Tunisian hotel in Sousse on Friday, killing 37 people.
Perhaps the most significant fact about Tunisia is that it's been the number one source of foreign fighters who have gone to Syria to join ISIS. Some 5,500 Tunisian citizens have left the country and are now fighting in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and to a lesser extent Mali, far more than the citizens of any other country.
It's believed that about 800 of these jihadists have returned to Tunisia in the last year. It's always been feared that Tunisian nationals returning would form terror cells in Tunisia and conduct more terror attacks, like the ones that have occurred frequently since 2011, but the actions of a Tunisian national in the Berlin attack has heightened those fears and created new anxieties. In fact, with ISIS losing territory in Syria, Iraq and Libya, it's feared that these jihadists are going to be flooding back into the country.
The purpose of Saturday's rally was to demand that further action be taken. In particular, they demanded that the government to bring home all Tunisian nationals living abroad who have links to extremist organizations, so they could face trial in their home country. Deutsche Welle and ITV
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Dec-16 World View -- Tunisia fears more terrorism after Berlin attack by Tunisian national thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Dec-2016)
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UN Security Council fails to impose arms embargo on South Sudan
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Humanitarian organizations are expressing outrage as the United Nations Security Council failed on Friday to pass a US-sponsored resolution to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan and placed a travel ban and asset freeze on three senior South Sudanese leaders.
According to the UNSC rules, for the resolution to pass it would have required 9 of the 15 members to vote in favor, and none of the 5 permanent members (US, UK, Russia, China, France) to veto it. As it turned out, those who opposed the measure needed only to abstain, since there were not 9 votes available to pass it. Japan, Russia, China, Angola, Malaysia, Venezuela, Egypt and Senegal all abstained.
South Sudan is the world's youngest nation, having gained independence from Sudan in 2011. The region's last generational crisis war was an ethnic war mainly between two tribes, the Nuer and the Dinka. That war climaxed with the "Bor Massacre," which began on November 15, 1991. The Nuer army marched toward the provincial capital Bor and massacred the people of the Dinka tribe. Over the next three months, 2,000 civilians were killed, thousands more wounded, and at least 100,000 people fled the area. Famine followed the massacre, as looters burnt villages and raided cattle, resulting in the deaths of 25,000 more from starvation.
A new conflict began on December 15, 2013, led by the president Salva Kiir, of the Dinka tribe, fighting against forces led by vice president Riek Machar, of the Nuer tribe. Kiir and Machar signed a peace agreement in August 2015, but that did little good.
Human Rights Watch is expressing outrage that the UNSC resolution failed to pass. According to HRW, both sides have been importing weapons and using them to fight the other side. HRW says that African Union and UN investigators have documented war crimes, including killings and rape of civilians, and forced recruitment of children by the warring parties in South Sudan. In the last few months there has been an increase in incitement to violence, hate speech by senior leaders, and targeting of civilians, sometimes based on ethnicity.
United Nations officials had been calling for the arms embargo and also an injection of peacekeeping forces, saying that South Sudan is getting closer and closer to a "Rwanda-like genocide." However, they've been saying that for months, and no Rwanda-like genocide has occurred, largely because South Sudan is in a generational Awakening era. not in a Crisis era, which would be required for a Rwanda-like genocide to occur.
Earlier this year, the Security Council adopted a resolution authorizing 4,000 troops from African nations to join 12,000 U.N. peacekeeping forces there. However, South Sudan's president Salva Kiir rejected the peacekeeping troops to enter the country, saying that he would fight them as if they were an invading army. Those peacekeepers who did serve in South Sudan were withdrawn in the summer, after they were accused of failing to protect civilians from rape and sexual violence.
As an aside, you may wonder why decades of international aid to Africa has failed to have any effect whatsoever on poverty. The situation in South Sudan provides a good illustration of what happens. Usually the international aid goes into foreign bank accounts of leaders, but otherwise it's spent on weapons to kill, rape and torture people opposing the leaders. Reuters and Human Rights Watch and NPR (11-Nov)
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From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Syria and South Sudan are in very similar generational eras, with leaders who are behaving in similar ways.
South Sudan's last generational crisis war was an ethnic civil war between the Dinka versus the Nuer tribes, climaxing with the Bor Massacre in November, 1991, as described above. The Bor Massacre stands as a defining moment in the history of South Sudan. It was so shocking that it largely ended the war.
Syria's last generational crisis war was a religious/ethnic civil war between the Shia Alawites versus the Sunnis. That war climaxed in February 1982 with the destruction of the town of Hama. There had been a massive uprising of the 400,000 mostly Sunni citizens of Hama against Syria's Shia/Alawite president Hafez al-Assad, the current president's father. He turned the town to rubble and killed or displaced hundreds of thousands. Hama stands as a defining moment in the Middle East. It was so shocking that it largely ended the war.
So both Syria and South Sudan today are in generational Awakening eras, as the first generation of children growing up after the previous crisis civil war come of age. These children did not personally experience the wars, but they listened to stories of how the other side committed massacres and rapes while their fathers were heroes who endured despite those atrocities. The children never hear about how their fathers also committed atrocities and rapes.
Another parallel between Syria and South Sudan is that the wars depend on outside intervention, almost to the point of being a proxy war. In South Sudan, Kiir is receiving military aid from Uganda, while Machar is receiving military aid from (northern) Sudan. In Syria, Bashar al-Assad is receiving military aid from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, while different opposition groups are receiving military aid from Turkey and from Salafist groups in Saudi Arabia.
From a theoretical point of view, when a country goes through a civil war that's also a generational crisis war, then as the first post-war generation grows up, the leaders become increasingly oppressive and violent towards peaceful opponents (usually a different religious or ethnic group), and use as an excuse the claim that they might start another civil war (which is almost impossible during a generational Awakening era). This is a generational pattern that's followed over and over, in country after country, throughout history.
What we're seeing in both Syria and South Sudan is a familiar pattern that I've described many times in countries like Burundi, Thailand, and Zimbabwe, starting 5-15 years after the climax of a generational ethnic crisis war. The leadership in the country, which represents one ethnic tribe or group, decides that in order to prevent a new civil war, it's necessary to impose "security" by having the security forces commit atrocities against the other ethnic group.
There's a wide spectrum of violence of this type. In Thailand, there's been sporadic violence by the army, backing the "yellow shirt" market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite minority against the the "red shirt" dark-skinned Thai-Thai indigenous ethnics, but so far the violence hasn't been too serious.
In South Sudan, possibly the biggest driver of the war is not ethnic differences but oil. South Sudan has a wealth of oil, and all the warring parties would like to control as much of that oil as they can. A particularly interesting example of this is China, which is heavily invested in South Sudan and is supporting Salva Kiir. Chinese officials scream bloody murder when anyone complains about their massacring of Tibetans, saying that no one has the right to interfere in their internal affairs, but China has no hesitation to interfere in other countries' internal affairs when their own interests are a stake.
Another parallel between Syria and South Sudan is that as genocide by the countries' leaders continues right under the noses of everyone in the world, the United Nations is powerless to do anything about it because the two nations that fully support massacres, rapes, genocides and other atrocities are Russia and China, and they have veto power in the UN Security Council.
In Syria and South Sudan, in contrast to Thailand, the violence is reaching the highest levels, approaching full-scale genocide. What makes this difference from a crisis civil war is that in the latter case, the violence is "organic", in that it comes from the people and cannot be stopped. In the case of Awakening era genocide, the violence could be stopped simply if the leader stopped massacring the opposition tribes, or if outside countries would stop supporting the genocidal acts. NPR and Sudan Tribune and Al Jazeera
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Dec-16 World View -- South Sudan increasingly parallels Syria in genocidal violence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Dec-2016)
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Germany criticized for too few CCTV cameras, and Britain for too many
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday tweeted that the United States should increase its nuclear missile arsenal:
"The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes."
Several hours earlier, Russia's president Vladimir Putin had made a similar call for Russia:
"We need to strengthen the military potential of strategic nuclear forces, especially with missile complexes that can reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defense systems.We must carefully monitor any changes in the balance of power and in the political-military situation in the world, especially along Russian borders, and quickly adapt plans for neutralizing threats to our country."
US State Dept. John Kirby responded to a question of Trump's tweet:
QUESTION: "During the campaign there was a lot of discussion, especially from the Clinton side, about how Mr. Trump didn’t have the temperament to handle the nuclear weapons arsenal, that he was unpredictable and impulsive. Is this – does this kind of tweet, especially coming a few hours after Mr. Putin said something similar without any kind of policy statement or thinking to back it up – does that reinforce concerns that he might not be a steady hand?"KIRBY: "Not for me to say, Barbara. I can’t speak for what – the president-elect’s nuclear views or his policy going forward. That’s for his and his team to speak to. What I can speak to is the approach that this Administration has taken to trying to get us on a path to a world without nuclear weapons."
This is a particularly laughable and moronic statement.
As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that the US and Russia will be allies in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. Russia will be allied with India and the United States, while China will be allied with Pakistan and China and the Sunni states. Iran will also be allied with India and Russia, as Shia Muslims and Hindus have been allied against Sunni Muslims at least as far back as the Battle of Karbala.
As I've been describing for many years, China is engaging in a massive military buildup, developing multiple new nuclear weapons systems with the purpose of destroying American cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers. According to a Pentagon report issued in May of this year, China has been on a weapons binge, with quality improving even faster than quantity. Although the US military was confident in the past that it could successfully defend against a Chinese attack, the report suggested that China's military is at a tipping point, where it could overwhelm American defense forces.
Russia's officials must also be getting alarmed by the massive buildup in weapons by its historic enemy, China. Thus, Thursday's statements by Putin and Trump should be viewed not as presenting a danger of nuclear war between Russia and the US, but as a sign that the both the US and Russia are moving to protect themselves from the inevitable preemptive nuclear missile attack by China. AFP and AP and State Dept. and NBC News
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German police have announced that the perpetrator of Monday's truck-ramming attack on a market in Berlin was Anis Amri, 24, a Tunisian asylum seeker who arrived in Germany last year. Amri has a criminal record in Italy and Tunisia, spent four years in an Italian prison. It took many hours for the police to figure out what happened, allowing Amri to be able to escape. There is now a major manhunt across Europe for Amri.
Many analysts are astonished that Berlin police have been unable to produce any CCTV (closed-circuit TV) footage that recorded the event, and that the police have to depend on asking the public for any available mobile phone footage.
Privacy laws are very strict in Germany, and Germans are particularly sensitive of state surveillance by any means, because of their collective memories of state surveillance by the Stasi secret policy in Communist East Germany and by the Gestapo in the Nazi era. So Berlin in particular is almost barren of CCTV cameras. According to the Berlin police union chief, "We would know a lot more about the perpetrator by now if we had been allowed to install video cameras." If cameras had captured the event, then Amri might have been identified much more quickly, before he had a chance to escape.
There's a particular irony to this situation, in that the EU just gave Britain one more reason for Brexit. The European Court of Justice (ECJ) on Wednesday struck down a UK's surveillance laws on the grounds that they violate the EU's privacy laws. The ruling did not specifically apply to CCTV, but it said that e-mail and internet records from the general public had to be destroyed within a year.
Undoubtedly, all of these privacy laws will be debated again, to balance privacy against public safety. However, it's worth noting that technology is improving rapidly to the point where it will be possible for the police to identify each person in CCTV footage, and use that information to track every person's movements on a daily basis. Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London) and International Business Times
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Dec-16 World View -- Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both call for nuclear weapons increase thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Dec-2016)
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European officials refuse to unblock the next bailout loan to Greece
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Italy's parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved a €20 billion bailout package for the country's banks, particularly the famous Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank, which is close to collapse because it has $55.2 billion of bad loans on its book.
MPS has been trying various desperate measures to bail itself out by borrowing money from international investors, including the Qatar Investment Authority, but those attempts have failed. MPS said on Wednesday that it would run out of money within four months. Last week, MPS said that it had enough money to last 11 months.
It's not clear how much of the €20 billion bailout that MPS will get, since the money is intended as a bailout fund for all of Italy's banks. Italy's banks hold a total of about $383 billion in non-performing loans, which is about one-third of the total for the entire eurozone. So the bailout amount is nowhere near enough to save Italy's banking system.
The new law authorizing a bailout would seem like a good idea, but it actually has the potential to be politically disastrous. This has to do with new rules that the European Central Bank (ECB) introduced in the last year, saying that if a country's government bailed out a bank, then the investors (e.g., holders of the banks stocks and bonds) would have to be "bailed in" -- meaning that they would "take a haircut" and lose a percentage of their investments.
Usually, anyone who invested in the stocks and bonds issued by a bank would have to be considered a "sophisticated investor." But Italy's banks are unique in that thousands of ordinary people, including many elderly savers, who wanted to deposit their money in savings accounts instead were sold bank bonds by the bank's staff. The result is that a "bail-in" of supposedly sophisticated investors will actually cause tens of thousands of people to lose their life savings.
It's thought the bailout of MPS will occur next week, before the end of 2016, and then we should have an idea of how many depositors are going to lost money. Some Italian politicians are claiming that they'll find a way to protect ordinary people's savings accounts, but whether that's even possible under ECB rules remains to be seen. Deutsche Welle and Guardian (London) and International Business Times
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On December 5, Greece's creditors reached an agreement to a new bailout loan. However, once the agreement was reached, Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras suddenly announced new social spending -- a one-time pre-Christmas bonus to poor pensioners, and a reduction in taxes for Greece's Aegean Sea islands whose tourist industry had suffered because of the refugee crisis.
This caused European officials to block the new bailout loan, and on Wednesday the Euro Working Group (EWB) announced that it had not been able to reach agreement to unblock the bailout. The countries that wanted to block further aid included Austria, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland and Germany. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Dec-16 World View -- Italy announces bank bailout that will 'bail in' ordinary depositors thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Dec-2016)
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Turkey and Russia blame Fethullah Gulen and the US for the assassination
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Turkey's police have arrested six relatives of Mevlut Mert Altintas, the 22 year old who shot Andrey Karlov, Russia's ambassador to Turkey, in Ankara on Monday.
Little information about Altintas has been released. He was born in western Turkey on the Aegean Sea, and has been working as a policeman for 2-1/2 years.
He used his police badge on Monday to gain access to the art exhibit where Karlov would be speaking, and to avoid having to go through a security X-ray device. He took his place and stood behind Karlov as part of Karlov's security detail. After Karlov had been speaking for a few minutes, Altintas pulled a gun from his coat pocket and shot Karlov dead. Anadolu (Ankara) and Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara)
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I've always considered it somewhat fanciful that Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed the aborted July 15 coup attempt on a 76-year-old political enemy living in the Pocono Mountains in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania, as if Fethullah Gulen had directed the coup himself from his easy chair.
Erdogan has repeatedly asked the Obama administration to extradite Gulen back to Turkey, charging him as being the leader of what Turkey calls the Fetullah Terror Organization (FETO). Last month, Erdogan said:
"I was disillusioned, because I would expect this? I served both as a prime minister and president in this country and whenever the U.S. requested extradition of those kinds of terrorists I handed them over. Obama also should have done it and handed that man to us."
The Justice Department has said that they would be happen to extradite Gulen to Turkey, provided that Turkey provides evidence satisfactory to an American court of law that Gulen was really involved in the coup. The administration says that it has not received such evidence.
There are other problems with automatically blaming Gulen.
Gulen is a Muslim cleric with a worldwide network of schools and businesses, run by his followers. For Erdogan, this worldwide network was for many years a good thing, a sign of a progressive Turkey, fighting extremism, and providing education and jobs. But relations between Erdogan and Gulen started to sour in 2012, and were severed completely in 2013. Since then, this huge international network has turned in Erdogan's eyes from a good thing to a bad thing, promoting terrorism instead of fighting extremism.
This sudden change in Erdogan's view of Gulen has caused confusion, and raised suspicion that the issues are more political than otherwise. And so there's a great deal of skepticism when Turkey is not able to provide any credible proof of Gulen's involvement in the July 15 coup.
However, the continued presence of Gulen in the United States provides a convenient target for Erdogan's blame and mockery. Whenever there's a domestic problem, Erdogan can just blame it on Gulen and the United States. Both Erdogan and Russia are increasingly blaming Monday's assassination of Russia's ambassador on the US.
Ilnur Cevik is an advisor to Erdogan. He says that the US and Germany are responsible for lots of things:
"Growing relations and intensive cooperation in all areas between Turkey and Russia has created anger in the West, especially in the United States and Germany. The latest example has been the joint efforts of the two countries to save the civilian people of Aleppo. It was inevitable that the West would try to sabotage these relations. It is sad that they used a policeman affiliated to Fethullah Gulen's terrorist organization to assassinate the ambassador. This organization was also behind the downing of the Russian fighter that hurt our relations."
So, the US and Germany are responsible not only for the assassination of the Russia's ambassador, but also for the July 15 coup and, even more incredibly, for Turkey's shootdown of the Russian warplane in November of last year!! But it's very convenient for both countries, rather than have to deal with the consequences to their own relationships.
This is laughable, and it reminds me of a completely different story in the news these days. The demented loony-left-wing socialist president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, has been so thoroughly destroying his country's economy that the inflation rate is 67% per month, and is continuing to accelerate. But he gets away with it by blaming it all on a foreign conspiracy, led by the United States. It seems that there is no leader's policy so loony or so destructive that he can't get away with it by blaming the United States. World Bulletin (Turkey) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
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The Turkish people have for years had to look on as Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah combine to massacre, bomb and slaughter hundreds of thousands of civilians, including many women and children, who are ethnic Turkmens and other ethnic groups close to Turkey, and to drive millions more from their homes.
So why would Turkey be willing to bend over backwards to mend relations with Russia?
There's no doubt that the past year has been hell for Turkey. There have been six or eight major terrorist attacks in cities across the country, perpetrated by the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) or the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). There was the July 15 aborted coup attempt. The country's resources have been strained by some three million refugees pouring into the country to escape the war in Syria. There was the chaotic break with Russia after a Russian warplane was shot down.
After the shootdown of Russia's warplane last year, Russia imposed harsh sanctions on Turkey that were devastating to Turkey's economy. Politically, Erdogan became increasingly isolated, having had very public splits with Syria, Russia, Israel and Egypt. So, Erdogan began healing some of those splits -- with Russia and Israel, though not with Egypt. And Erdogan became resigned that Bashar al-Assad is here to stay.
Russia has a completely different set of motivations. Russia is on the verge of scoring a major political victory.
On Monday, leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey met for a summit in Moscow to discuss a peace agreement for Syria. Turkey has dropped its demand that Bashar al-Assad step down. The United States has become so irrelevant to the Mideast that it was not invited, and besides, both Turkey and Russia are blaming the United States for the assassination and other problems.
For Russia, this is an opportunity to show the world that Russia is back, it's in charge of the Mideast, while the US has been pushed out. This is the kind of political victory that Vladimir Putin is working for.
So this is a critical time for both Turkey and Russia. The assassination of Russia's ambassador in Ankara has the potentially to really explode the relationship between the two countries. How was an off-duty security guard so easily able to get into the exhibition? Why was the ambassador so poorly protected? After the shooting, why the did the police shoot Altintas dead, rather than just wounding him, which would have allowed Russian investigators to question him? Who else was involved in the assassination plot?
By rushing to blame the United States, the two countries do not have to deal with a lot of very difficult questions. In particular, Russia can continue with its plan to declare itself the world leader in the Mideast.
Generational Dynamics predicts that this friendship between Turkey and Russia won't last, and that Russia and Turkey will be on opposite sides of the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. Russians and Turks have hated each other for centuries, and have fought many bloody wars, and it won't be long before they're fighting one more. Telegraph (London) and Tass (Moscow) and Sputnik News (Moscow)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Dec-16 World View -- Russia, Turkey scramble to mend relations by blaming US for assassination thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Dec-2016)
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Large truck kills 12 driving into a crowded Berlin market
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Russia's ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov, was shot dead in Turkey's capital city Ankara on Monday around 7:30 pm, as he was giving a speech during the opening of an art exhibition. Karlov has been a diplomat for 40 years, and has been ambassador to Turkey since 2013.
The killer was Mevlüt Mert Altintas, said to be a 22 year old off-duty policeman who had joined Turkey's police force two years ago.
After shooting Karlov, Altintas waved his gun around and should "Allahu Akbar" (Allah is great), and then in Turkish, "Don't forget about Aleppo. Don't forget about Syria. As long as they aren't safe, you won't be safe either."
Further information about Altintas has not been released, but it's believed that he's not from groups that have conducted terror attacks in Turkey in the last year, such as Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) or the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). There have been widespread protests in Turkey against Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for his bloody slaughter of civilians in Aleppo, and it's believed that he's a particularly demented anti-Assad protester who believes that he can attain a political objective by killing an ambassador.
In November of last year, Turkey's F-16s were involved in the shooting down of a Russian warplane that had allegedly crossed the border from Syria into Turkey. Relations between the two leaders, Russia's president Vladimir Putin and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, extremely vitriolic, and they imposed economic sanctions on each other, harming both their economies.
The relations began to improve, even to signing an agreement in October to jointly build a natural gas pipeline. However, this was thought to be an agreement out of pragmatism, rather than a real warming of relations, as the two countries are still bitterly divided over the Syrian civil war.
Some observers have speculated that Altintas's political goal in killing the Russian ambassador was to renew the hostility between Putin and Erdogan. However, Putin issued a statement saying that he does not blame Erdogan or Turkey for this terrorist act.
Putin announced that Russia is sending a team of investigators to Ankara to investigate the shooting. Unless the investigation reveals gross negligence by Turkish officials in not preventing the shooting, it's expected that pragmatism will continue in the relationship between Turkey and Russia. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Bloomberg
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At least 12 people were killed and dozens injured after a large truck rammed into crowds at a market in Berlin, Germany. The driver has been arrested, and a passenger in the truck died in the crash, although he may have been killed. Authorities are reluctant at this time to say whether it was an "accident" or an "attack," although signs point to it being an attack.
The truck had Polish license plates and was carrying steel beams from Poland to a site in Italy. The dead passenger in the truck has been identified as a Polish national. The driver is said to be an asylum seeker from Pakistan or Afghanistan, who had arrived in Germany in February.
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, ISIS has previously called on its followers to carry out "lone wolf" terror strikes in Europe, and driving a truck into a crowd is one type of attack that ISIS has suggested. In July, an attack of that type occurred in Nice, France, when a delivery truck driver drove his truck into a crowd. That attack occurred on Bastille Day, July 14. Deutsche Welle
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Dec-16 World View -- Terror in Berlin and Ankara as Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Dec-2016)
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China says it will back down over US military drone seizure in South China Sea
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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China's Defense Ministry said on Saturday that it will return to the United States an American military drone it seized in international waters in the South China Sea, near the Philippines. However, China has not yet returned the drone, and says only that it will return the drone "in an appropriate manner" at an unnamed time.
The Pentagon says that on Thursday, a Chinese naval ship approached the USNS Bowditch, an oceanographic survey vessel with a mostly civilian crew, which was trying to retrieve an American military drone that had been collecting unclassified data for oceanic research. A Chinese warship, a "submarine rescue vessel," that had been following the Bowditch, send out a small boat and outran the Bowditch to capture the drone.
According to the US Defense Department, China intentionally captured a "sovereign immune vessel," which is an act of war. The Chinese rushed to provide a laughable excuse, saying that the drone was captured "in order to prevent the device from causing harm to the safety of navigation and personnel of passing vessels."
The drone was captured in waters near the Philippines, far from China. China has declared its intention to annex the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory, even though its claims have been shown to be a hoax, and even though a judgment by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague has made it clear that China was violating international law.
Chinese state media made it clear that the seizure was intentional. It quotes Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert:
"This is not the first time that we seized a US underwater drone in the South China Sea, but the one we seized on Thursday is new and more advanced than before and might carry valuable information just gathered in the South China Sea."
According to one theory, China seized the US military drone to send a threatening message to US president-elect Donald Trump, after he accepted a phone call from Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen on December 2. Trump has also indicated that he is also reviewing America's support for the "one China" policy, which says that Taiwan is a province of China.
China was forced to back down and promise to return the drone because not doing so could force a military response by the US. However, until China fulfills its promise and actually returns the drone, a military response remains a possibility. Washington Post and Xinhua and Global Times (Beijing) and Daily Beast
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Anxieties about war have been raised in Taiwan after Chinese bombers twice circled around Taiwan's periphery, though without entering the countries air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Some people have speculated that this is one more act from Beijing, like the seizure of the US drone, to send a message in response to Donald Trump's phone call with Taiwan's president. However, that would seem an unlikely explanation, since the two actions by the Chinese bomber occurred on November 25 and December 10, with the first action occurring prior to the phone call.
However, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense on Sunday appealed for calm, as further concerns were raised this weekend when China's air force published a photo on social media showing a bomber flying above clouds with two mountain peaks in the distance, apparently depicting the November 25 flight. Chinese military commentators said that the peaks are of a mountain in Taiwan.
China's state media quoted a Chinese military analyst saying that military action could occur in Donald Trump's first term:
"Military conflicts would occur between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan by 2020. It is quite possible that the mainland will take the island in one stroke."
However, another Chinese analyst is quoted as saying that China's leadership might not favor reunification by force, which would hurt both sides' interests. China Post (Taipei) and Global Times (Beijing)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Dec-16 World View -- Chinese bombers circling Taiwan raise talk of war during Trump's first term thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Dec-2016)
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Syria's civil war shows similarities to America's Vietnam war
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A year ago, al-Assad himself said that his army was close to being defeated. Since then, three more armies -- from Russia, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah -- have rushed to his aid, and al-Assad is claiming a "history in the making" victory:
"[The liberation of Aleppo was] history in the making and worthy of more than the word congratulations.History is being written in these moments. Every Syrian citizen is taking part in the writing. It started not today, but years ago when the crisis and the war on Syria began."
I think that after the liberation of Aleppo we’ll talk about the situation as ... before the liberation of Aleppo and after the liberation of Aleppo."
An analyst, Alexander Khrolenko, quoted by Russian state media agrees. He says that the city's liberation has had a ripple effect across the country. The victory has weakened radical groups located in the province of Idlib:
"Until recently, the militants controlled key oil fields and communications channels with Turkey in the Euphrates valley. Aleppo's liberation has undermined the economic base of terrorist groups and the supply routes to Raqqa, the capital of Daesh's caliphate. Now the Syrian Arab Army could focus on two regions, Idlib and Raqqa."
In the title of this article I referred to "the light at the end of the tunnel," because that phrase was used by Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon in making claims about victory in the Vietnam War that sound very similar to those of al-Assad and Khrolenko. Al Masdar News (Damascus) and International Business Times and Sputnik News (Moscow)
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If it takes four armies to capture one city, Aleppo, in a period of many months, it's delusional to believe that the rest of the country is going to fall quickly.
Al-Assad and Russia's president Vladimir Putin received a taste of what they're in for this week when the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) recaptured the city of Palmyra from Syrian and Russian forces last weekend. Not only that, but ISIS entered the big Russian-Syrian T-4 air base outside the town, carrying off substantial quantities of Russian armaments including assault rifles, ground-to-ground missiles, anti-tank missiles, and anti-air rockets.
Russia's troops, backed by massive airstrikes, had captured Palmyra in March of this year. Putin had declared the recapture a major victory in the war and a major turning point (which is what he's saying now about Aleppo).
Putin even held a triumphal, widely televised concert in Palmyra's Roman ruins on May 5, with the orchestra conducted by the internationally distinguished maestro Valery Gergiev. So ISIS's success in Palmyra is a major fiasco for Russia and a major humiliation.
According to reports, the way it happened is that Palmyra was originally recaptured from ISIS by Russia's special forces (Spetsnaz). Afterwards, the special forces were withdrawn from Palmyra and sent to Aleppo, where they are involved in the war there. According to Igor Konashenkov of the Russian defence ministry, ISIS immediately sent about 5,000 jihadists from Raqqa to Palmyra to achieve its victory.
Undoubtedly, once Aleppo is captured, Syria and Russia will turn back to Palmyra and recapture it again from ISIS. But will that leave Aleppo vulnerable? And if it took four armies to capture Aleppo, while losing Palmyra, how can they hope to recapture the entire regions of Syria that are under control of the Free Syrian army, al-Nusra, and ISIS, and keep captured areas under control?
When American forces scored victories in the Vietnam war, presidents Johnson and Nixon talked about the "light at the end of tunnel," but the North Vietnamese forces did not stop fighting, which is what al-Assad and Putin expect ISIS to do after the capture of Aleppo. Guardian (London) and Debka
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In 1953, French forces under the command of Gen. Henri Navarre were fighting Ho Chi Minh's communist forces in Vietnam. Navarre said, "Now we can see [success in Vietnam] clearly, like light at the end of a tunnel." The French forces were decisively defeated at Dien Bien Phu in May 1954.
In June 1966 President Lyndon Johnson said "I urge you to remember that Americans often grow impatient when they cannot see light at the end of the tunnel - when policies do not overnight usher in a new order. But politics is not magic. And when some of our fellow citizens despair of the tedium and time necessary to bring change - as, for example, in Vietnam today - they are forgetting our own history."
The phrase "light at the end of the tunnel" was repeated frequently in the 1960s in reference to the Vietnam war, both by government officials and by antiwar activists mocking government officials. The Tet Offensive in 1968 turned public opinion negative towards the war, though it did not end until several years later.
This week, Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin are talking about a "history in the making" victory. It's not exactly the same phrase as "light at the end of the tunnel," but it has the same flavor.
Let's make three comparisons between America in the 1960s and Syria today:
Now let's look at what's happening in Syria today:
Presidents John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon were all delusional about the war in Vietnam. Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin are even more delusional about the war in Syria. The Syrian civil war will be an even worse disaster than the Vietnam war. History.com and Global Security
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Dec-16 World View -- Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Dec-2016)
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Russia and Japan fail to agree on ending World War II
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Russia and Japan are technically still at war, having never signed a peace treaty ending their conflict in World War II. Japan has demanded the return of their Northern Territories, consisting of four islands that the Soviet Union forces seized at the end of the war. Russia calls them the Kuril Islands.
So when Russia's president Vladimir Putin came to Tokyo for the last two days to visit with Japan's president Shinzo Abe, a lot of people were hoping they'd reach an agreement on the disputed islands, and that they'd sign an agreement ending World War II.
Unfortunately, no such agreement and no peace treaty were forthcoming. Press reports seem to imply that Abe had hoped to develop a personal relationship with Putin and perhaps charm him into reaching an agreement on the islands. As it turned out, even that goal might not have been reached, as the two leaders met only briefly. Afterwards, Putin said, "It would be naive to think we can solve this problem in an hour, but there is no doubt that we need to look for a solution." Abe said, "We need to work toward a breakthrough so that we don’t disappoint the next generation."
Instead, they signed economic deals whose net effect will be Japanese investments in projects in Russia. Russia and Japan will each put $500 million into a new fund that will make investments in Russia's energy, urban planning and medical services. There were reports of agreements on joint Russian-Japanese economic activities on the islands, including fisheries, tourism, culture and medicine, but no talk of sovereignty.
Still, while Russian analysts are saying that Russia got the better of Japan in the summit, they hope that the joint economic activities will lead to an eventual peace treaty.
Russia achieved something else significant. Japan has supported the US-led economic sanctions on Russia for invading and annexing Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and Friday's economic agreements seem to
One might well ask oneself why Japan seems so eager to suck up to Russia without seeming to get much in return. China has been increasingly hostile to Japan, while Russia and China appear to be getting along, even militarily, so perhaps Abe felt that a friendship with Russia would protect Japan from China in the future.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, the US, Japan, India, Iran and Russia will be allied again China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Japan Times and Russia Today and Tass (Moscow)
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South Korea has been embroiled for months in an explosive corruption scandal that has led the parliament to vote to impeach president Park Geun-hye, and has had massive anti-Park protests every week. Park's fate will depend on a ruling by the Constitutional Court, which is expected early next year.
It's expected that there will be large crowds of protesters in Seoul on Saturday, calling for Park to resign from office without waiting for the Constitutional Court. It's feared that they'll clash with another large group of protesters, this group supporting Park.
Ban Ki-moon is stepping down after being United Nations Secretary-General for ten years, and was asked whether he will run for president of South Korea:
"I'll go back to (South) Korea, then I'll try to meet as many people as possible, which may include political leaders, leaders of civil society and my friends, and I will really consider seriously how best and what I should and could do for my country.I can understand and share the anxiety of people about the future of their country. And this is one of the biggest challenges the Korean people are encountering.
I also understand the aspiration of people for a new type of inclusive leadership that can help them overcome the challenges ahead."
He sounds to me like a politician running for president. AP and Special Broadcasting Service (Australia) and JoongAng Ilbo (Seoul)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Dec-16 World View -- Former UN leader Ban Ki-moon may run for president of South Korea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Dec-2016)
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World Bank declines to mediate Pakistan-India water dispute
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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India and Pakistan continue on the path to war with new belligerent accusations.
The two countries maintained a veneer of civility for a few years, but it fell apart on January 2 of this year when there was a terrorist attack on an Indian air force base in Panthankot, Punjab. India blamed the attack on Pakistan, and Pakistan said that India has staged the encounter to defame Pakistan.
The most explosive event of the year occurred on July 8, when Burhan Wani, the leader of a separatist group in Kashmir, was killed by Indian police fire. Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day. Indian police responded with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters wounded or killed or blinded by the pellets, and that kind of violence has been an almost daily occurrence since then. India has accused Pakistan of actively supporting the riots, while Pakistan has incited further violence by glorifying Burhan Wani.
On September 18, terrorists made a major attack on an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years. Once again, India blamed Pakistan.
So this week, the war of words took another spike. India's Home Minister Rajnath Singh on Sunday said:
"Pakistan is conspiring to divide India on religious lines, but it will not succeed. We were divided in 1947 on a religious basis. We have not been able to forget that... All Indians are brothers, whether they are born from the womb of a Hindu mother or a Muslim mother. ... Pakistan came into existence [in 1947] after India got divided on religious lines, but it could not keep itself united.Pakistan was divided into two countries in 1971. If it does not stop cross-border terrorism, it will soon be in 10 pieces."
The interpretation of Singh's remarks is as follows:
These remarks were interpreted by Pakistani officials as being a threat.
Nafees Zakaria from Pakistan's foreign office responded by saying that Singh's statement was an admission that India was involved in terrorism in Pakistan:
"Pakistan strongly condemned the absurd remarks of the Indian Home Minister [which were] in complete violation of all diplomatic norms, UN Charter and other international instruments. ...These remarks vindicate Pakistan’s long-standing position that Indian government and its intelligence agencies are involved in subversive and terrorist activities and terror financing in Pakistan to fuel tension and destabilize the country. The international community must take notice of such irresponsible statements and India-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan."
Indian Express and Daily Times (Pakistan) and New Indian Express
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As we recently reported, India is threatening to divert water currently flowing from India to Pakistan back to India's farmers, in violation of the Indus Water Treaty, signed by the two countries in 1960.
The Indus Water Treaty is considered a model, because it was mediated by the World Bank and it has survived despite several wars between the two countries. In September, India and Pakistan separately asked the World Bank to mediate the current dispute. The World Bank agreed at that time, but has now "suspended" its mediation efforts until at least February, with the following statement:
"We are announcing this pause to protect the treaty and to help India and Pakistan consider alternative approaches to resolve conflicting interests under it and its application to two hydroelectric power plants. This is an opportunity for the two countries to begin to resolve the issue in an amicable manner and in line with the spirit of the treaty rather than pursuing concurrent processes that could make the treaty unworkable. I hope the two countries will come to an agreement by the end of January."
It's really not surprising that the World Bank is trying hard to wash its hands of this matter. One has to laugh at the suggestion that India and Pakistan will "resolve the issue in an amicable manner." This is just one more issue leading India and Pakistan to war. The Nation (Pakistan) and First Post
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India on Friday is celebrating its victory over Pakistan in the India-Pakistan War of 1971, and Pakistan's surrender on December 16, 1971, creating the country of Bangladesh.
The United Nations partitioned the Indian sub-continent following World War II into separate countries for Hindus and Muslims, India and Pakistan, respectively. What we now call Bangladesh was the eastern region of Pakistan. However, East Pakistan's mostly dark-skinned Bengal population (language: Bengali) was in constant friction with West Pakistan's more multiethnic population (language: Urdu). East and West Pakistan never really got along, and the fact that East Pakistan was more populous than West Pakistan meant that in Pakistan's democracy, the Bengalis would dominate Pakistan's parliament and government.
In 1971, Pakistan's army attempted to bring East Pakistan's Bengalis under control, triggering a war. Pakistan was supported by Urdu-speaking Biharis from India, while India supported the Bengalis, and won the war.
Today, with India gloating over the 1971 victory, that war is just one more issue driving India and Pakistan to a new war today. International Business Times and First Post and Dawn (Pakistan, 10-Dec-2012) and Kashmir Watch (Pakistan)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Dec-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions rise as India celebrates 1971 victory over Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Dec-2016)
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IMF says that Greece's budget must be 'more growth-friendly'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A new disagreement between Greece and Greece's three creditor institutions -- the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB), formerly known as the "troika" -- is threatening to catapult Greece into a major new financial crisis by Christmas.
This has been going on for years, and as we've written many times in the past, there is no solution to Greece's financial crisis. It's not that no one has been clever enough to figure out a solution. It's that no solution exists. Greece's government accumulated an enormous amount of debt in the 2000s decade by repeatedly lying about its income and expenses, and ever since the day of reckoning, it's been clear that Greece will never be able to repay its debts.
If Greece declares bankruptcy, leaves the euro currency, and returns to its original drachma currency, it will be a financial disaster for the Greek people. And so, the three institutions have been kicking the can down the road by repeatedly providing money, and by requiring Greece to make various cuts in government programs, in order to give the appearance of forcing some discipline on the government, even though they know it will make little difference. Officials in Greece make arguments that boil down to the following: We all know that Greece is going to go deeper and deeper into debt anyway, so we might as well just keep spending more money on social programs.
On December 5, the three institutions reached an agreement to a bailout loan with enough more money to allow Greece to meet its next debt repayment and avoid having to declare bankruptcy. At the same time, they insisted that Greece's government adopt more reforms, thus playing their part in the game. But Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras didn't play the game. He announced that instead of reforms, he would grant a pre-Christmas bonus to poor pensioners. In addition, he will keep in place a discount in valued-added tax, to eastern Aegean islands whose tourist industries have suffered because of the crisis of refugees crossing from Turkey to Greece. He had previously promised to scrap that discount as one of his commitments in return for the latest bailout. Apparently he believes that he can get away with this because of Greece's central role in the refugee crisis.
This sudden announcement has caused the December 5 agreement to fall apart. The Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers issued a statement saying that Tsipras's announcement appeared "to not be in line with our agreements." The bailout loan has been put on hold, and the institutions will now put into place a full investigation of Greece's fiscal plans, before it will be reinstated. Kathimerini and Bloomberg
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is being blamed by many people for demanding more austerity from Greece and threatening Greek people with starvation.
The IMF is responding that it's not demanding any additional austerity at all, but instead is asking that the public sector be restructured to make it "more growth-friendly." The IMF makes the following points:
The IMF recommends that the authorities should further reduce current pensions while increasing spending on a modern and well-targeted welfare system to protect those that are most in need. More should be spent on other essential public services and key public investments too. IMF and IMF (PDF) and Newsweek
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Dec-16 World View -- Greece financial crisis threatened after Tsipras announces new spending program thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Dec-2016)
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Human Rights Watch reveals more ethnic cleansing imagery from Burma (Myanmar)
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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It took four armies, but Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is claiming victory in recapturing Aleppo from anti-Assad rebels. A year ago, al-Assad himself said that his army was close to being defeated. But then his three allies stepped up their military support with people, weapons and bombs, and al-Assad is finally able to declare victory.
According to Matthew Rycroft, the UK ambassador to the UN:
"Al-Assad's forces, propped up by Russia and Iran, have once again redefined horror. They have gone from siege to slaughter.Today the United Nations has received reports that pro-government forces have been entering homes in Eastern Aleppo. They have been going door to door, executing people on the spot. 82 people murdered. 13 of whom were women. 11 were children. None were terrorists.
We have heard reports of women committing suicide, in order not to be raped. We have heard reports of people being burnt alive. We have heard reports that hundreds of men have disappeared fleeing Aleppo, taken by the regime. All these reports evoke the darkest days of the history of the United Nations.
When it happened before, we said never again. Well, it is happening again, today."
As I've been writing for a long time, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far in this century. He continues a line of monsters from the previous century that include Josef Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, and others.
The civil war in Syria was caused by al-Assad when he unleashed his army and air force against peaceful protesters in 2011. Up to that point, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were friendly with al-Assad. Things really turned around in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians.
This attack alone shows that al-Assad's fight is not with "terrorists," but with innocent Sunni civilians. Al-Assad is a member of a Shia Alawite clan that has historically fought many wars with Sunnis. To al-Assad, Sunni civilians are nothing but cockroaches to be exterminated.
Al-Assad's genocidal extermination campaign on these "cockroaches" has been a geopolitical disaster. Tens of thousands of young Sunnis traveled to Syria to fight al-Assad, creating the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Syrians themselves formed the "moderate" Free Syrian Army (FSA), or else joined al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS). Millions of Syrians were killed or displaced, and well over a million of them have fled to Europe to escape the violence.
Bashar al-Assad has the delusional view that after capturing Aleppo, the war will quickly end. Al-Assad required three other armies to capture Aleppo. Al-Assad started the civil war not because rebels were taking up arms, but because civilians were peacefully protesting. If civilians begin peacefully protesting again, will al-Assad attack them again, and ask those three other armies to come back? UK Government and ARA News (Syria)
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Many people, especially in the Mideast, blame al-Assad's geopolitical disaster on inaction by the Barack Obama administration, especially Obama's "red line" flip-flop on intervening when al-Assad used Sarin gas on his own innocent civilians. It's impossible to know what the outcome of intervention at that time would have been, but many people believe that the worse of the genocide would have been avoided.
In fact, the Obama administration and many Western administrations went farther, and avoided saying anything that might appear as a criticism of al-Assad, Russia or Iran. However, several years of built-up anger seemed to explode at the UN Security Council on Tuesday, with the excoriating remarks of American's UN ambassador Samantha Power:
"To the Assad regime, Russia, and Iran, three member states, behind the conquest of and carnage in Aleppo. You bear responsibility for these atrocities by rejecting UN ICRC evacuation efforts, you are signaling to those militia who are massacring innocents to keep doing what they are doing. Denying or obfuscating the facts, as you will do today, saying up is down, black is white, will not absolve you. When one day there is a full accounting of the horrors committed in this assault of Aleppo - and that day will come sooner or later -- you will not be able to say you did know what is happening, you will not be able to say you were not involved.We all know what was happening, and we all know you were involved. Aleppo will join the ranks of those events in world history that define modern evil, that stain our conscience decades later. Halabja, Rwanda, Srebrenica, and now Aleppo.
To the Assad regime, Russia, and Iran, your forces and proxies are carrying out these crimes. Your barrel bombs and mortars and airstrikes have allowed the militia in Aleppo to encircle tens of thousands of civilians in your ever tightening noose.
It is your noose. Three member states of the UN contributing to a noose around civilians. It should shame you. Instead, by all appearances, it is emboldening you. You are plotting your next assault. Are you truly incapable of shame? Is there literally nothing that can shame you?
Is there no act of barbarism against civilians, no execution of a child, that gets under your skin? That just creeps you out a little bit? Is there nothing you will not lie about, or justify?"
Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitali Churkin, responded as if he were talking about another place altogether:
"The vast majority of the former members of the illegal armed groups that have handed themselves over to the authorities as a result of the amnesty and have gone through the procedures have been returned to their families. The most important thing is, the counterterrorist operation in Aleppo will conclude in the next few hours."
In fact, as the previous quote from Matthew Rycroft indicates, reports reaching the BBC and other media sources say that Sunnis who "hand themselves over" to the Syrian army authorities are most likely to be immediately shot. In fact, we can't believe any garbage that comes out of the mouths of Vitali Churkin, Bashar al-Assad, or Vladimir Putin. Middle East Eye
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In the past few months, satellite photography provided by Human Rights Watch has documented that 30,000 ethnic Rohingyas living in Burma's (Myanmar's) Rakhine state have been left homeless after their homes and villages have been systematically burned down.
Few people doubt that the perpetrators are Burma's army, conducting ethnic cleansing . The BBC has broadcast footage of an undercover road trip through the region, including interviews who says that their husbands were burnt and killed by soldiers, and that they were repeatedly raped by soldiers.
Burma's government has been making the ridiculous claim that the Rohingyas are burning down their own homes and villages to embarrass the government. This is the kind of garbage that we always get from Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin, and now from officials of Burma.
So Human Rights Watch has released new imagery that shows a village being burnt down as multiple military transport vehicles and the periodic landing of military helicopters move about.
Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who is the de facto leader of Burma, is losing her luster as a human rights icon. So far, Western leaders and media have given her the benefit of the doubt, suggesting that she was unable to control the army.
But more and more, the question is arising whether she's a full participant in and supporter of the ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas, having the same hatreds as other Burmese leaders. Human Rights Watch
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Dec-16 World View -- US's Samantha Power makes excoriating attack on Syria's al-Assad, Russia, Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Dec-2016)
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Egypt's Christians demand revenge after Sunday's church bombing
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Egyptian Christians are blaming the government for Sunday's suicide bombing that killed 24 people and injured 49 in a chapel adjacent to St. Mark’s Cathedral, Cairo’s largest church and home of Coptic Pope Tawadros II. Some are demanding the fall of the regime.
According to witnesses, the police didn't perform the usual checks and searches of people entering the Church. According to one witness, "There were police cars stationed in front of the church gates. ... They were too busy eating breakfast and drinking tea and soda. They weren’t doing their job."
Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi blamed the Muslim Brotherhood. However, the Muslim Brotherhood has denied this, and no one has claimed responsibility, but the only people celebrating on social media were supporters of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), who wrote, "God bless the person who did this blessed act." Al Arabiya and Reuters and AFP
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We've been reporting Italy's banking crisis for a while now, and there's always been uncertainty about which of several paths it would take. After the events of the last week, a lot of that uncertainty has vanished, but the result isn't what would be hoped.
Italy held a referendum last Sunday on a change to the constitution that would make Italy's government more stable. Prime minister Matteo Renzi had promised to resign if the referendum was defeated. Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank, was hoping that the referendum would pass, since they believed that would make it more likely that investors would lend the bank 5 billion euros to make a debt repayment and avoid a bank crisis for a few more months.
Well, the referendum was voted down. Renzi resigned, as promised. Italy has a new prime minister, the outgoing foreign minister, Paolo Gentiloni, who took office on Monday. But whether investors would lend MPS 5 billion euros is still in doubt, and considered less likely. Hope is not dead, as there's still a chance that Qatar's sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, will lend MPS one billion euros, and that will encourage other investors to provide the other four.
Failing that, Italy's government will have to bail out MPS. Under European Central Bank (ECB) rules that were imposed because of Greece's banking crisis, a government bailout of MPS would require a "bail-in" of MPS's bond holders.
For almost all banks, the bond holders are sophisticated investors who purchased bonds issued by the bank as an investment. But MPS is unique, in that thousands of ordinary people, including many elderly savers, who wanted to deposit their money in savings accounts instead were sold bank bonds by the bank's staff. The result is that a "bail-in" of supposedly sophisticated investors will actually cause tens of thousands of people to lose their life savings.
MPS asked the ECB for a few more weeks' time to get the loans, but the request was rejected by the ECB. As a result, either MPS must get its loans this week, or else the new prime minister Paolo Gentiloni will have to authorize a government bailout by next weekend. Guardian (London) and AP
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Dec-16 World View -- Italy's bank crisis seems likely to cost thousands of people their savings thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Dec-2016)
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Furious Turkey vows revenge, as PKK/TAK takes credit for Istanbul bombing
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), a terrorist offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has claimed responsibility for the double bombing in Istanbul on Saturday. At least 38 people were killed, and 155 were injured.
The TAK has already taken credit for a February 17 attack in Ankara, killing 28 people, a March 13 bombing in Ankara that killed 37 people, and a June 8 attack in Istanbul that killed 11 people. There were at least three other terror attacks in Turkey this year, perpetrated by the PKK and by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and there was also the July 15 coup attempt.
The Turkish people feel vulnerable and afraid, and a furious president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed revenge:
"They should know that we won’t leave them unpunished. They should know that they are going to pay a heavy price. My people should have no doubt that we will carry out the struggle against terror until the very end. We wore our burial robes when we took this road. ...No one should have any doubt about our fight against terrorism. We are the owners of this country and will not leave it to those scum if they aim to scare us with such attacks."
Interior minister Süleyman Soylu said:
"Sooner or later, we will have our vengeance. This blood will not be left on the ground, no matter what the price, what the cost."
Hurriyet (Ankara) and Guardian (London)
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At least 25 people were killed and 49 others injured on Sunday morning in a terrorist explosion in the chapel of St Peter and St Paul (El-Botroseya) adjoining Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral in Cairo Egypt. No one has yet claimed responsibility.
Cairo has not yet had a chance to recover from two terror attacks on Friday. First, an IED placed next to two security roadblocks in Giza killed six security personnel, and injured three others. Next, also on Friday, one civilian was killed and three security personnel were injured by a bomb in Egypt’s Kafr Al-Sheikh governorate.
Sunday's explosion took place during Sunday prayers. In these services, the men site on one side of the church, and the women sit on the other side. Apparently the bomb was brought in by a woman, and so most of the casualties were women.
A furious president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi called the Sunday attack a part of "a war against the great Egyptian people," and he vowed to put on trial all who have "incited, facilitated or participated" in the terrorist attack.
Orthodox Copts, who comprise about 10 percent of Egypt's 90 million people, are the Middle East's biggest Christian community.
Violence in general has been growing in Egypt since the "Arab spring' in 2011 that resulted in the ouster of long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak, either because of terror attacks by al-Qaeda or so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), or because of clashes between different groups of Egyptians, including clashes between the army and peacefully protesting civilians. This has included sectarian violence between Muslim and Coptic Christians.
The worst attack on Copts occurred several weeks before the Arab Spring, with an explosion in the Two Saints Church in Alexandria on New Year's Day 2011, killing 23. There was also a bloody massacre of Coptic Christians in November of that year, and there has have been several minor attacks on Coptic churches since the ouster of Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government in 2013. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Daily News Egypt and Reuters
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According to Egyptian media, European governments have been falling all over each other saying that they would stand by Egypt after this terrorist attack, and support Egypt's fight against terrorism. Such remarks were issued in statements by France's president François Hollande. Germany's foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, UK ambassador to Cairo John Casson, among others.
However, Turkey's media points out that statements by European officials refuse to use the word "terror." Martin Schulz, president of the European Parliament, said, "My thoughts & solidarity with Turkish citizens, with families of victims of Istanbul attacks. I wish speedy and full recovery to the injured." Other officials made similar statements.
However, there was one exception. Tomas Zdechovsky, a Czech member of the European Parliament, said that the terrorist group PKK must be banned from Europe. "There is no difference between Istanbul and Paris, Brussels attacks targeting civilians. Terrorism never succeeds, terrorists never win," he said. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Anadolu (Ankara)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Dec-16 World View -- Terror bombing of Coptic Christian church in Cairo Egypt kills 25 thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Dec-2016)
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Greece-Turkey relations deteriorate as Greece delays
extraditing suspected coup plotters
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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At least 29 people were killed and another 166 were injured on Saturday because of two terrorist bombings near a soccer stadium in central Istanbul. The first was a car bomb. The second was a suicide bomber who detonated the bomb 45 seconds after the car bomb. It's believed that the intent was to maximize casualties.
Turkey has been plagued in the last year by a series of terrorist bombing and gun attacks by the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
The last major attack on Istanbul occurred on June 28 with three coordinated suicide bombings at Ataturk National Airport, killing at least 36 people. That attack was blamed on ISIS. Since that time there have been at least two terrorist attacks in southeastern Turkey, thought to be perpetrated by the PKK.
In addition, the government is still in crisis following the July 15 coup attempt. As ordered by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, well over 100,000 people have been fired or jailed as a result, including military officers, government officials and schoolteachers.
Turkey has placed a gag order on reporting Saturday's attack. No one has been publicly blamed, but it's thought that ISIS was responsible.
**** UPDATE: The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), a terrorist offshoot of the PKK, has claimed responsibility. (Paragraph added, 11-Dec)
Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Reuters and AP
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For several months, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been complaining about the Lausanne Treaty that was signed on July 24, 1923. On September 27, he said:
"They (threatened) us with [the Treaty of Sèvres] in 1920 and persuaded us to accept Lausanne in 1923. Some tried to deceive us by presenting Lausanne as a victory. At Lausanne, we gave away the (Greek) islands that you could shout across to. We are still struggling about what the continental shelf will be and what will be in the air and land. The reason for this is due to those who sat at the table during that treaty. Those who sat there did not do us justice and we are reaping those troubles right now. If the (recent) coup had succeeded, they would have given us a treaty that would have made us long for Sèvres."
Erdogan's remarks have been heavily criticized by Greece. Perhaps more surprisingly, the comments were also criticized by the opposition party in Turkey.
An official of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Gülsün Bilgehan, said that the Lausanne Treaty was the title deed of the Turkish Republic:
"Erdogan can learn the importance of Lausanne from the cabinet meetings which he chairs these days. Because Lausanne is the title deed of the Turkish Republic and a certificate of honor for those who signed it as Mr. Erdogan said in his message. In his speech today, he said ‘They cannot make us take one step back even if the whole world comes together.’ I invite him to read a real history book based on documents telling about Lausanne and Ismet Pasha [Inönü] to learn how it was made."
Greece's Foreign Ministry issued a statement two days ago saying that the sovereignty of Greece over its Aegean islands "is unquestionable and guaranteed by international law. Irresponsible reports to the contrary are challenging because the status of the islands and islets of the Aegean is clearly determined by a number of International Agreements in the last century." Greek Reporter and Hurriyet (Ankara) and History of Lausanne Treaty and Yeni Safak (Ankara)
Since July 15, Turkey has been demanding the extradition of eight Turkish soldiers who fled to northern Greece after the coup. The eight soldiers, included two commanders, four captains and two sergeants, had escaped to Greece on a Sikorsky helicopter and landed in Alexandroupolis. The soldiers denied involvement in the coup, but said that they would not receive a fair trial in Turkey.
Greece has refused to extradite them without an appropriate court hearing. On Monday of last week, a Greek court ruled that three of the eight Turkish soldiers should not be extradited. On Tuesday and Thursday, the same court said that the other five SHOULD be extradited. Officials in both Greece and Turkey say that they are puzzled by these seemingly conflicting rulings.
All of these decisions will be reviewed by an appeals court, and a final decision may not be made until March. This delay is expected to increase tensions between Greece and Turkey.
Wars between Greece and Turkey go back millennia, even celebrated in Greek mythology in the story of the Trojan Horse and the fall of Troy. In 1974, the countries fought a war over the island of Cyprus, with the result that the small island is split between a Greek portion and a Turkish portion. Cyprus unification talks are scheduled to begin soon, but with tensions growing between Greece and Turkey, they are unlikely to succeed. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Kathimerini (Athens) and Anadolu (Turkey)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Dec-16 World View -- Erdogan says some Greek islands should really belong to Turkey thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Dec-2016)
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Ukraine war: fighting just to carry on fighting
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) announced on Thursday announced, "Contrary to media reports, we can confirm there are no plans to move the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest to Moscow."
Ukraine won the 2016 Eurovision contest in May, and according to rules, will be the host of the 2017 contest. However, Russia is objecting that Ukraine is too financially strapped to be able to host the multinational spectacle. Russia is also objecting that Ukraine is threatening to forbid attendance by anyone who supported Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.
The core of the dispute is that the Ukraine singer Jamala (actual name Susana Jamaladinova) won the contest in May with an extremely emotional song called "1944" that appeared to allude to Russia's 1944 deportation of 240,000 ethnic Tatars from Crimea to Siberia and Central Asia. Jamala herself is an ethnic Tatar, whose great-grandmother was deported, along with five children.
Thursday's announcement by the EBU is intended to reassure the public that the issues have been resolved, and that the 2017 contest will be held in Ukraine. Deutsche Welle and Telegraph (London, 11-May-2016) and Youtube - Jamala's performance at Eurovision
According to France 24's Ukraine correspondent Gulliver Cragg, there is no sign that the war in Ukraine is ending, but it's not going anywhere either. The two sides are just fighting because of the political benefits that they gain as long as the war continues.
In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine, with troops and equipment to support separatists who wanted to break off the entire eastern portion of Ukraine and annex it to Russia. That hasn't happened, but Russia also invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and annexed it and made it part of the Russian federation.
However, the war in eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian army, supported by the government in Kiev, and the Russian separatists, supported by Russian troops and equipment, continues. The following interview excerpts occurred on RFI (my transcription):
"I don't see very many signs of things changing in any major way in the near future in the east. It's important to stress this war is very much ongoing. People are being killed everyday pretty much.It pales in comparison to what's going on in Syria - the death toll is far far lower, thankfully, and civilians are bearing less of the brunt of it than they were in 2014-15. The casualties tend to be military casualties on both sides.
And there's no clear sign of what people are trying to do. There's no evident attempt to take more territory by either side. It seems like, in a lot of ways, and I think there's quite a lot of evidence for this, they are mostly just carrying on fighting in order to carry on fighting.
The separatists need an excuse as to why life in the areas they control is so bad - why they aren't managing to build these pseudo states properly, and the easy thing to do is to blame the Ukrainians "who keep bombing us."
The Ukrainians find the war -- this is perhaps a cynical analysis -- but I think that there is an extent to which it's true -- the Ukrainians -- although and I would always stress that they did not start this war --- but now there's a situation where the more it goes on, they don't have to face the impossible task of applying the Minsk peace agreement which was signed in February 2015, which is actually basically impossible for Ukraine to comply with. They could never get the vote in parliament needed to pass the measures that they promised Russia they would pass. So as long as the fighting goes on, they don't have to do that."
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France 24 Ukraine correspondent Gulliver Cragg went on to say that what the Ukrainian government wants most of all from the EU is visa-free travel for Ukrainians throughout the Schengen zone. (This is the same issue as with Turkey, which wants visa-free travel for Turkish citizens throughout the Schengen zone.)
In fact, the European Parliament on Thursday reached an agreement to grant visa-free travel to the people of Ukraine and Georgia. Under the terms of the agreement, visa-free travel can be quickly terminated after an investigation following a request by an EU nation. The deal still needs to be officially approved by the entire European Parliament, which is expected next week.
However, Cragg adds that visa-free travel won't be of much use to Ukrainians:
"That's the one small piece of good news -- that they're gonna get this visa-free travel, but it's not really gonna impact that many Ukrainians because they can't really afford to travel to Europe most of them. So there are those who will find it a bit easier to go to Europe and work illegally on short term temporary contracts, in Poland and Italy and things like that - that will make their lives a bit easier -- but they're still gonna be working illegally, because this visa-free access doesn't allow them to work."
If approved, then Ukraine and Georgia will join the United States, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Israel, and Japan as countries having visa-free travel. Foreign Policy and European Parliament
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Dec-16 World View -- EU agrees to grant visa-free travel to people of Ukraine and Georgia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Dec-2016)
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Vietnam and Australia reject China's claims, while Philippines submits
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that the country would not allow the US military to use its base in the Philippines for its freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea. In the past, some US aircraft and ships stopped in the Philippines on the way to the South China Sea patrols, but Lorenzana says that the US can now instead use its bases in Guam or Okinawa.
The awkward statement comes from the policy of new Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte. He announced a cutoff of relations with the United States first by calling President Obama the "son of a whore," and then he traveled to Beijing and sucked up to China's president Xi Jinping.
China's claims to the South China Sea were eviscerated by a ruling of United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in July. In particular, the Tribunal said:
"[The Tribunal] FINDS that Scarborough Shoal has been a traditional fishing ground for fishermen of many nationalities and DECLARES that China has, through the operation of its official vessels at Scarborough Shoal from May 2012 onwards, unlawfully prevented fishermen from the Philippines from engaging in traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal."
Apparently Duterte ceded the Scarborough Shoal to China in their meeting, but he was rewarded when China graciously decided to allow Philippines fishermen to fish there again, as they had been doing for centuries prior to 2012.
The new announcement by Lorenzana is consistent with Duterte's policy of submission to China, but it seems unlikely to be popular with the Philippines people who, as I've previously reported, have a 92% favorable view of the US, but only a 44% favorable view of China.
The mutual xenophobia between the Chinese and Philippine people is substantial, and it would take just one accident or unpleasant incident to stoke nationalist feelings in one country against the other, and force Duterte to change his submissive policy. As I've written many times, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics it's the masses of people, the generations, not the politicians, who decide a country's policies. Philippines Star and International Business Times
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A Chinese military newspaper says that China's vast military buildup in the South China Sea is a boon to everyone in the region, and to the whole world. "China's construction in the South China Sea has turned its islands into the best-equipped, most advanced bases in the region with airports, hospitals, agriculture and 4G mobile signal." Furthermore, there are more than 20 scientific research projects, dealing with issues such as seawater desalination, refuse disposal, and marine ecology protection.
However, the paper adds, "So this region is advantageous geographically, and when conflict begins, who controls this region will dominate." It also quotes a Chinese joke: "When the US sends their warships to scare us, we just fill in one or two more islands to make ourselves calm down." Global Times (Beijing)
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The Vietnamese are not buying the message that China's annexation of the South China Sea is a boon to the world.
Satellite imagery shows that Vietnam has begun dredging operations in Ladd Reef in a corner of the Spratly Islands that China is now annexing, along with the rest of the South China Sea. Although the purpose of the dredging cannot yet be determined, it appears to similar to China's activities in creating artificial islands and military bases. However, the Vietnamese efforts are minuscule compared China's vast militarization efforts.
Vietnam has also fortified five of its bases in the Spratly Islands with rocket launchers -- a move described in August by China state-run media as "a terrible mistake."
Vietnam has its own historic claim to the South China Sea. In 1836, the King of Hue began dispatching soldiers once a year to the islands, hunting for pearls, giant clams and salvaged treasure from passing boats, often European, which sank on treacherous reefs. This regal connection is significant. According to a Vietnamese official whose family settled the islands in the 1600s, "Vietnam is the rightful owner of the Paracels and Spratlys."
Australia is also not buying China's claim that its vast military expansion in the South China Sea is a boon to the world. According to one Australian analyst:
"China has built six large islands — three substantial air bases and three sizeable electronic surveillance installations. With this, China effectively has moved 1100km south towards Australia and deep into the geographic heart of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN].The new facilities’ size allows China to deploy off northern Borneo an air combat force larger and more capable than any current ASEAN air force. China can easily enforce an air defense identification zone across the South China Sea.
More worryingly, China for the first time poses a realistic air threat to Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and all of Borneo. With these new air bases, China today militarily dominates the central ASEAN region."
The analyst recommends that Australia, the US and ASEAN "build regional resilience to Chinese threats." Empty words, since no such resilience is possible, short of full-scale war. Australian Broadcasting and The Australian
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Dec-16 World View -- China says its South China Sea military buildup is a boon to the world thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Dec-2016)
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Venezuela to print 20,000 Bolivar note as currency
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The hyperinflation of Venezuela's currency is accelerating so rapidly that the money printing presses can barely keep up.
After a 180% inflation rate in the year 2015, Venezuela in December was forced to begin printing 500 and 1000 Bolivar bills, while phasing out the 2 and 5 Bolivar bills.
The larger currency not only did not solve Venezuela's hyperinflation problem, it actually exacerbated it, by providing the means for prices to accelerate even more rapidly. In just one month, November of this year, the inflation rate was 67%.
This evokes memories of the stories of Germany's Weimar republic, where the inflation rate reached 1000% per month by November 1923, with iconic tales of ordinary people buying a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrow of money. Venezuelans have already begun carrying bags of cash for every day transactions.
That 1000 Bolivar note, issued in February, that was supposed to solve Venezuela's currency problems is now worth about 20 American cents. So Venezuela is now issuing 5,000, 10,000 and 20,000 Bolivar notes, which will be available from banks on December 15. So the 20,000 Bolivar note is worth about $4 today, and probably will be worth about 4 cents within a few more months.
Venezuela used to be a wealthy country, thanks to oil exports, which are the country's only major source of revenue. The charismatic leader Hugo Chávez wasted the oil revenue on pet projects, on buying votes, and on supporting Cuba's failing economy. Today, Hugo Chávez is dead and oil prices have crashed. The current president, Nicolás Maduro, is increasingly using military power and violence to keep the population under control as the currency collapses. The new hyperinflated 20,000 Bolivar notes will give a boost to the economy that will last about a nanosecond, and then they'll trigger even more hyperinflation and more shortages.
Debt-ridden Venezuela may be forced to officially default in mid-December. Venezuelanalysis (22-Feb-2016) and International Business Times and CNN Money
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In a sense, Zimbabwe is a few years ahead of Venezuela. Zimbabwe has already gone through its hyperinflation phase.
As recently as the 1999, Zimbabwe was a breadbasket of Africa, exporting up to 500,000 metric tons of surplus food. By 2003, Zimbabwe was starving. What happened during those three years was a Marxist socialist "land reform" program by Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe that confiscated 4,500 white-owned commercial farms and redistributed the property to his own Shona ethnic group.
After 2003, more and more Zimbabweans have been dying of starvation, because Mugabe has destroyed the farm infrastructure. By 2008, the official rate of inflation was 231 million percent. By 2009, 35 quadrillion Zimbabwe dollars were worth just one US dollar. Zimbabwe began to use the dollar, the rand and the euro as its official currency.
Now Zimbabwe has introduced a new currency called "bond notes," each one of which is said to be equal in value to one US dollar. The given reason for introducing the bond notes is that there are not enough US dollars in circulation, causing hardship for the people.
The reason that there aren't enough US dollars in circulation is because Mugabe has destroyed the economy and there aren't enough exports. Exports would be used to bring US dollars and other foreign currencies into the country.
Incredibly, Mugabe is continuing is destruction of the economy. The word "indigenization" is used by Mugabe to describe confiscating a farm owned by a white farmer and giving it to one of Mugabe's Shona tribe cronies, probably someone who doesn't even know how to farm. That's how Zimbabwe turned from the breadbasket of Africa into a major food importer.
So now Mugabe is extending his "indigenization" program from farms to all businesses, requiring all businesses to be majority owned by Zimbabweans, again mostly cronies from Mugabe's Shona tribe. Zimbabwe continues to shut down businesses, including foreign banks, that do not comply with the indigenization requirements.
So anyone can see that this will end badly. The destruction of more businesses means that there will be fewer products available. In the meantime, the bond notes will have the same effect that the 20,000 Bolivar note is having in Venezuela -- more bond notes for fewer products. It looks like Zimbabwe is on its second round of hyperinflation. Reuters and New Zimbabwe and Independent (South Africa)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Dec-16 World View -- Venezuela's currency becomes worthless, as Zimbabwe introduces new currency thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Dec-2016)
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Burma's Rohingya attacks generate calls for military action in Malaysia
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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According to the International Organization for Migration, around 21,000 ethnic Rohingyas from Myanmar (Burma) have fled across the border from Rakhine state to Bangladesh to escape violence by Burma's army.
As we've been reporting, Human Rights Watch has posted satellite images that show that villages of Rohingya Muslims are being systematically burned down. Some 30,000 Rohingyas have been displaced. Myanmar officials continue to make the laughable claims that the Rohingyas are burning down their own homes to embarrass the government. Burma's government is refusing to allow journalists into the region where the violence is taking place, but the BBC World News has broadcast footage of an undercover road trip through the region, including interviews who says that their husbands were burnt and killed by soldiers, and that they were repeatedly raped by soldiers.
The root of the violence is xenophobic attacks by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," against the Rohingya Muslims, including rapes, torture and other atrocities committed by Buddhists, targeting the Rohingyas. The Rohingyas have a darker skin than Burmese, and they speak a Bengali dialect. They are, for all practical purposes, a stateless ethnic group, living on the Bangladesh-Burma border for generations, but rejected by both countries. In fact, Burma refuses to identify the Rohingya as a unique ethnic group, preferring to call them Bengali, and referring to them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. In the last few years, large mobs of Buddhists have massacred entire neighborhoods of Muslims in various regions of the country, mutilating, raping and killing hundreds, and displacing thousands from their homes.
Nobel Peace Prize winner and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi has been praised in the past for her support of human rights, but she is losing her luster as an international superstar as she is being increasingly condemned for refusing to speak out to condemn the current Buddhist violence against the Rohingyas. Under international pressure, Suu Kyi has formed a special committee to investigate the violence, but the committee is headed by an army general for the same army that's committing the violence, so the investigation is not considered credible. Deutsche Welle and AFP and Bangkok Post
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It's a rule of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that member states are forbidden from interfering in each other's internal affair.
So Malaysia's prime minister Najib Razak violated that rule on Sunday, when he spoke to thousands at a pro-Rohingya rally in Kuala Lumpur. He questioned Aung San Suu Kyi's Nobel Prize, given her inaction, and said to thousands of Malaysians at the rally:
"The world cannot sit by and watch genocide taking place. The world cannot just say 'look, it is not our problem'. It is our problem."
Buddhist monks in Myanmar, from the Nationalist Monk Association, led a protest of about 150 people in Yangon, holding banners and chanting. An official in Myanmar said that Najib is wrong:
"What he said in Malaysia is not true. We’re trying to solve (this) with the international supporters. But it’s our choice, no other country can make (a) decision about our country."
He accused Najib of stoking religious extremism in order to score political points in Malaysia.
In Malaysia, hundreds of people from the hardline Islamist group Hizbut Tahrir, marched to the Defense Ministry, and demanded that Malaysia's army conduct a jihad against Burma. According to the group's statement:
There is no other solution to save Rohingyan Muslims except mobilizing the army to Myanmar, because the reality is the Arakan [Rakhine State] Muslims are being pummeled by Myanmar’s infidel army.“The Armed Forces is obliged to help the Rohingyan Muslim by accepting the Allah’s call for jihad at the kafir harbi [infidels] country."
BBC and Channel News Asia and Malaysia Mail Online
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The Somali-born student who launched a car-and-knife attack at Ohio State University this week reportedly protested on his Facebook page about the killing of minority Muslims in Myanmar. And last weekend, Indonesian authorities arrested two militants who were allegedly planning to attack the Myanmar Embassy in Jakarta.
Online extremists in Indonesia have expressed their desire to mount “jihad” on behalf of the Rohingya, with some supporters hoping that the ‘mujahidin’ will be able to smuggle into Myanmar. The Rohingya crisis has become a rallying cry for jihad. Some social media users in Indonesia have gone to the extent of declaring their readiness to be suicide bombers for the sake of the Rohingya. The Rohingya issue is fast developing into a security threat that would have an adverse impact on peace in the region. VOA and RSIS (Singapore) and The Statesman (India)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Dec-16 World View -- Asian jihadists become radicalized by Burma's (Myanmar's) Rohingya slaughter thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Dec-2016)
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Russia promises Tajikistan a 'large quantity' of military aircraft
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In a major change in policy, China is becoming more militarily active in the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan. Tajikistan, which was one of the republics of the Soviet Union, is usually thought to be in Russia's exclusive sphere of influence.
As we've reported in the past, China has been economically very aggressive in Tajikistan. It's thought that there are now 150,000 Chinese working in Tajikistan, and China has been buying up industries and huge amounts of farmland. In 2011, Tajikistan agreed to hand over around 1% of its territory to China in exchange for having some of its debts forgiven.
Unexpectedly, China's military activity in Tajikistan has also expanded substantially. In September 2016, Beijing offered to build 11 new border checkpoints and a new military facility along the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, which raised [1]some concerns in Russia. On October 20–24, a combined 10,000 military personnel from the National Army of Tajikistan and China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) were conducted five days of counterterrorism exercises in a region bordering Afghanistan.
China's military activity in Tajikistan serves multiple objectives -- protecting its economic interests, defending Central Asia and itself from jihadist terrorism, and containing Russia's influence. Russian officials have not commented on this change so far, but it's certain to raise tensions in Central Asia. Jamestown and The Diplomat and EurasiaNet (24-Oct)
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On Monday, defense ministers of Russia and Tajikistan, meeting in Moscow, signed a military aid agreement specifying that Russia would provide a "large quantity" of military aircraft to Tajikistan over the next year. Russia's defense minister Sergey Shoigu said after the meeting:
"Next year the key phase of our military-technical cooperation will begin, the delivery of weaponry and military equipment. In particular, this is a large quantity of aviation equipment, airplanes and helicopters. I think this will be implemented according to plan and on schedule. And, of course, it will contribute to stability in the region."
According to a Tajik source, the deal will include combat aircraft, armored vehicles and communications.
This agreement shows that China will not easily be able to displace Russia in Tajikistan. Russia had a special unit of border guards at the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border between 1992 and 2005 and repeatedly repelled attacks by Taliban forces. Russia has had a military base in Tajikistan for 70 years, and the lease of the military base was extended for another 30 years in a 2012 agreement. The agreement to deliver military aircraft may be an attempt to counter China's growing influence.
According to Russian analyst Andrey Serenko, Russia's military adventures in the Mideast and Ukraine may have left few resources to keep China from expanding its influence:
"There is a danger in this new alliance, along with Pakistan and Afghanistan China is including Tajikistan, which Russia has until recently considered part of its zone of influence. Russia's involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East has resulted in us losing our position in Central Asia. It appears that in this 'Central Asian NATO' under the Chinese umbrella, Russia may be the odd one out."
Tajikistan also shares a long border with Afghanistan. Increasing jihadist activity from the Taliban, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and Uighur separatists has raised fears of terrorist activity in Tajikistan, and both China and Russia are concerned.
Furthermore, the jihadist threat from Afghanistan provides a convenient justification for Russia and China to convince Tajikistan to allow their troops on Tajikistan's soil. EurasiaNet and Asia-Plus (Tajikistan)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Dec-16 World View -- China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Dec-2016)
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From the Truman Doctrine to renewed nationalism
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
There was no "Generational Dynamics World View" posting on Sunday because Comcast crashed, and the internet was unavailable most of Saturday and Sunday. I apologize to my readers for any inconvenience.
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On Friday, Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen had a "shock" 10-minute phone conversation with US President-elect Donald Trump. As usual, the mainstream media have reported this story in the most incompetent way possible. I saw and heard so-called "experts" talking on the BBC and CNN ranting and raving how this was going to cause a war. The printed mainstream press referred to it as a "major crisis."
The utter incompetence of the mainstream media in dealing with this story was amazing. We know that the SAT scores of students have been falling for decades, and now it seems like the reporters at the NY Times, NBC News, CNN and others apparently majored in sociology and women's studies in college, so they have no clue what journalism is.
Furthermore, having spent eight years simply re-publishing statements and press releases from the Obama administration, these reporters have absolutely no journalistic experience that would allow them to report a story on their own, which reporters were able to do before the rise of Generation-X.
As regular Generational Dynamics readers know, China has been aggressively preparing for full-scale war with the United States for years. They've developed one nuclear missile system after another, and manufactured perhaps hundreds of those missiles, with no other purpose than to destroy American cities, military bases and aircraft carriers. These developments have been deliberately planned, and it's clear that China plans to attack at a time of its own choosing, not to be triggered in a panic because of a ten-minute phone call.
Furthermore, China did not launch a war after much worse provocations. In January Tsai Ing-wen, president of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won an overwhelming and decisive electoral victory in January. China was outraged, but didn't start a war.
On July 12 ruling on the South China Sea, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration eviscerated China's claims to the South China Sea in a legal challenge brought by the Philippines. China was FURIOUS and thoroughly humiliated by the decision, and issued one angry, contemptuous statement after another, but didn't launch a war.
So it was really pretty obvious that China wasn't going to launch a war over a ten-minute phone call. The Gen-X so-called "journalists" at the BBC, NY Times, and CNN could have figured that out as easily as I could. In addition to being incompetent as journalists, they're emotionally traumatized by the enormous humiliation they suffered in the election results after aggressively supporting Clinton during the campaign with some of the most moronic "news" reporting in history.
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the world is headed for a new world war, the Clash of Civilizations world war. The allies of the West will include Japan, India, Russia and Iran. The enemies will be China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries. This will be the world's greatest war in history.
So a war with China is coming, and would be coming irrespective of whether Trump or Clinton had won. It would be nice if the mainstream media could start reporting actual news instead of fatuous nonsense, but that's apparently too much to hope for. Xinhua and International Business Times and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
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I've written many times about the Truman Doctrine, from President Harry Truman in 1947, which made America policeman of the world. The justification is that it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John Kennedy's "ask not" speech, and every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman. As I've written numerous times, I believe that the cause of Obama's numerous foreign policy disasters is his repudiation of the Truman Doctrine. From various apology tours to flip-flopping on the Syria Sarin gas red line to prematurely pulling American troops from Iraq, Obama's rejection of America's role as policeman of the world has left the world without a policeman, and we've seen the results.
The phone call between Donald Trump and Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen indicates another serious turn in American foreign policy.
As I've been writing for over ten years, America and much of the world are in a generational Crisis era, and I've documented numerous examples in country after country of what always happens in a generational Crisis era -- the rise of xenophobia and nationalism. This has happened in China vs Japan, China vs Vietnam, India vs Pakistan, Europe vis-à-vis the Muslims and the Roma, and America vis-à-vis the Muslims and the Mexicans.
Fortunately, and much to my great relief, president-elect Trump has almost completely walked back his xenophobic remarks about Mexicans and Muslims, and this gives me hope that, unlike our current president, he's a person who is able to learn, though that remains to be seen.
However, even without the xenophobia, Trump has tapped into the increasing mood of nationalism that we see in America, and other countries. We saw the growth of nationalism in the anti-EU Brexit vote in Britain, we saw it on Sunday with the anti-EU referendum vote in Italy that may force the resignation of Matteo Renzi, and we saw it in the phone call with Taiwan's president.
Nationalism is not the same as the Truman Doctrine. The Truman Doctrine provides guidelines for a military action whose purpose is to prevent a foreign war from spiraling into a major war. A police analogy would be the Los Angeles police taking action to prevent further fighting between the Crips and the Bloods. Nationalism is much more ideological, as if the LA police took the side of the Crips for ideological reasons and fought with them against the Bloods.
Foreign policy for the last eight years has repudiated the Truman Doctrine and been highly anti-nationalistic and hence highly ideological, with highly undesirable outcomes. It remains to be seen in the next few years whether America follows a new ideological foreign policy, dictated by nationalism, or whether it's a return to a reasoned, methodical foreign policy, such as the one dictated by the Truman Doctrine, followed by every president from Harry Truman to George Bush. A war between China and Taiwan is inevitable, at a time of Beijing's choosing, no matter what president Trump does, but too much nationalism can make it appear that we're taking sides. With the Clash of Civilizations world war approaching, a reasoned, methodical, non-ideological foreign policy is what we need.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Dec-16 World View -- No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Dec-2016)
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India says that Modi's 'demonetization' program reduced Kashmir violence
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As tit-for-tat charges and insults between India and Pakistan continue to escalate, India's prime minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday said that India would abrogate the 56-year-old Indus Water Treaty and divert water currently flowing from India to Pakistan back to India's farmers.
Speaking to a rally in Punjab last week on Friday, Modi said:
"Under the Indus Water Treaty, India has the right over water of Satluj, Beas and Ravi rivers. It rightfully belongs to our farmers, but this water is not reaching the farmer's field, instead the water is flowing to Pakistan and eventually going to the sea. Governments came and went in Delhi, but farmers kept suffering as water continued to flow to Pakistan. Not any-more, I will ensure that farmers get what is rightfully theirs.This water is neither being utilized by Pakistan nor does it come in Indian farmers destiny. I have set-up a task force. I'm committed to ensure that every single drop of water, which is rightfully ours, under the Indus Water Treaty, is brought to the farmers in Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and other parts of the country. ...
There is no reason that we cannot use our rights (over our waters) and let our farmers suffer. I need your blessings in order to fulfill your requirements for watering your fields."
Sirajul Haq of the Islamist political party Jamaat-i-Islami responded:
"Yesterday, prime minister of India Narendra Modi sent a message to Pakistan that he would block our rivers. Today, standing here in Karachi, near the mausoleum of Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah I want to inform Modi that the line does not exist on his palm that says that he can do any such thing. Mr Modi, if you stop our water, we will stop your breathing."
Pakistan officials so far has been relatively restrained in responding to this threat, possibly viewing Modi's remarks as merely campaign rhetoric. They pointed out that the Indus Water Treaty was mediated by the World Bank in 1960, and has survived despite several wars between the two sides. Pakistan media reports have pointed out that Pakistan is already short of water, and that Modi's threat, if implemented, would deal a severe blow to Pakistan's farmers. The News (Pakistan) and Hindustan Times (11-Nov) and Pak Observer and Dawn (Pakistan)
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Pakistan and India abandoned any pretense at cordial relations earlier this year after a January 2 there was a terrorist attack on an Indian air force base in Panthankot, Punjab, which India blamed on Pakistan. Pakistan accused India of staging the attack to defame Pakistan.
The name-calling became extremely vitriolic after a September 18 terrorist attack on India's Uri army base in Kashmir. Four militants, carrying guns and grenades, stormed an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.
This comes as the violence in Kashmir continues to increase. In October, India relocated 10,000 people in India-controlled Kashmir away from the Line of Control (LoC) that separates the India and Pakistan regions of Kashmir, and last month Pakistan evacuated 8,000 people from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir away from the LoC. CNN (1-Oct) and CNN (16-Nov)
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On November 8, India's prime minister declared 500-1000 rupee notes worthless. This "demonetization" policy has, in many ways, been an economic disaster, causing hardship for many people who have been standing in lines at banks for hours at a time just to exchange the worthless notes for new notes. Many people have been unable to buy necessities like food, and some have been stranded far from home, unable to purchase train tickets.
According to India's defense minister Manohar Parrikar, the demonetization program has substantially reduced the amount of violence in Kashmir, by reducing incidents of stone-pelting. According to Parrikar:
"Earlier, there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting [on security forces in Kashmir] and Rs 1,000 for doing something else. PM has brought terror funding to zero. In the last few days after PM's daring move there hasn't been stone pelting on security forces. I congratulate PM for it."
It's believed that separatist activists were paying stone-pelters in counterfeit notes that had been printed in Pakistan. By making all 500-1000 rupee notes worthless, the counterfeit notes also became worthless.
If all this is true, then it would certainly count as a fairly spectacular success story, even if the reduction in stone-pelting only lasts a few months. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the violence in Kashmir is "organic" or "indigenous," in the sense that it's not directed by armies or generals, but is rising up from the people. The violence comes from various tribal and ethnic groups, not from an army or militia obeying the orders of a national commander.
As I described in a recent article, India's last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted India's Hindus against the British colonialists, and the 1947 Partition war, which pitted Hindus and Muslims against each other, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. As we described in that article, the 1857 war led naturally to violence between Hindus and Muslims decades later, and then to the 1947 war.
Now we're seeing that the 1947 war is leading, decades later, to new violence between Hindus and Muslims. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're seeing a kind of repeat of 1947, and that this increasing violence will lead to a new generational crisis war between Hindus and Muslims, and from there to full-scale war between Pakistan and India.
If Modi's demonetization program is really reducing the amount of stone-pelting, then it's a development that can almost be described as amazing. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's only temporary, in that can't stop the generational changes that are leading to a major new war between Pakistan and India. Times of India and Business Standard (India)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Dec-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Dec-2016)
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Referendum vote could affect stability of Italy's troubled banks
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Sunday, Italy will vote on a referendum which, according to prime minister Matteo Renzi, will change the constitution to make Italy more governable, and more able to cope with the future.
The referendum is important in its own right, but it became geopolitically significant in January when Renzi announced that he would resign if the referendum failed. Many analysts call this an act of hubris that was unnecessary and even disastrous, but it's been done. And now the consequences are that the referendum is less about constitutional reform, and more about whether Renzi should remain in office.
After the spectacular failure of polling organizations to predict the result of Britain's Brexit referendum or the American presidential election, no one knows whether or not to believe polls anymore. Nonetheless, many politicians are nervous, because the poll results show that the referendum is more likely to fail than to succeed.
If the referendum fails, and if Renzi keeps his promise and resigns, and if the remaining MPs in parliament cannot find a way to select a "caretaker" government that will keep things going -- if all of those things occur, then there will be new elections.
It's thought that the party most likely to benefit from new elections will be the left-wing populist Five Star Movement (M5S), led by Beppe Grillo, an Italian comedian, actor, and political activist. M5S received about one-quarter of the vote in the 2013 elections, has won some major mayoral elections since then, and has become increasingly popular. And Grillo and the Five Star politicians are "euroskeptic" and have said that they'll sponsor a new referendum on whether Italy should pull out of the eurozone, and possibly the European Union.
So, if there are new elections, and if the Five Star Movement and its euroskeptic allies come into power, and if they sponsor a new referendum, and if that new referendum is approved -- if all of those things occur, then the stability of the eurozone and the European Union will be at risk.
That's a lot of "if's" that have to happen. Nonetheless, Europe's politicians have been unnerved by a series of populist setbacks, the main ones being the Brexit referendum and the American election, and they're afraid that Sunday's referendum vote in Italy will be the next one. Spiegel (Germany) and Express (London) and The Local (Italy)
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There's a completely different scenario where a "no" vote on Sunday's referendum could threaten instability of the euro.
As we've been reporting, Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank, is close to collapse because it has $55.2 billion of bad loans on its book. Other Italian banks are in trouble as well, holding a total of about $383 billion in non-performing loans, about a third of the total in the entire eurozone.
MPS has been trying to avoid collapse by trying to convince investors to lend the bank another $5 billion, despite having burned through two previous large loans.
It's believed that a "no" vote on Sunday's referendum will create enough uncertainty that Italy's borrowing costs might rise significantly. In fact, anticipation of a "no" vote has caused investors to sell off Italian bonds, pushing yields (interest rates) up to 2%, compared to just 0.3% for German bunds.
If borrowing costs increase further, then investors could be far less interested in lending MPS the $5 billion it needs to avoid collapse, and this could have a domino effect that could catastrophically affect Italy's entire banking system. In the most likely scenario, Italy's government would have to bail out the banks with taxpayer money, but this is a violation of new rules set by the European Central Bank, forcing Italy out of the eurozone.
Not everyone is so pessimistic. In the optimistic scenario, it will turn out that poll results were erroneous because voters were ashamed to admit that they're voting "yes" on the referendum, just as they were ashamed to admit that they were voting for Brexit or Trump. The optimistic scenario also notes that the Wall Street stocks surged to new highs following Trumps' election. So in this scenario, Renzi remains in office, Italian stocks surge, MPS gets it bailout money from investors, and Italy muddles through for another year. CNN and Market Watch and Stratfor
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Dec-16 World View -- Sunday's referendum in Italy threatens EU's stability thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Dec-2016)
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Mediterranean migrant traffic to Italy and Greece continues,
despite cold weather
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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About 171,000 migrants reached Italy after crossing the Mediterranean Sea so far this year, a new record. The previous record was 170,100 for all of 2014. The number arriving in Greece so far this year totals another 171,731, but this figure is well below the 2015 figure of 883,393, thanks to the EU-Turkey refugee deal.
More than three times as many migrants reached Italy this November as did so in the same month last year. On Monday alone, Italian and international rescuers reportedly pulled 1,400 people from the water to rescue them from drowning.
The EU-Turkey refugee deal has substantially reduced the number of migrants traveling from Turkey across the Aegean Sea to Greece. Those migrants are generally from war zones in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Most migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea to Europe are from African countries, according to the International Organization for Migration:
The process of Mediterranean migrant traffic has become an extremely efficient and cynical assembly line. People-smugglers launch overcrowded rubber boats from the Libyan coast, with absolutely no pretense that the rubber boats will reach Europe. The migrants are told to use their radios to call for help from European rescuers while they are still close to the Libyan coast. There is a high risk that the overcrowded rubber boats will sink or capsize before rescuers can find them. There have been 4,655 cases of deaths of missing at sea recorded in the Mediterranean so far this year, compared to 3,771 cases in the whole of 2015.
The cold weather is making the trip far more deadly. Nonetheless, more migrants are making the trip because they want to cross before winter, and because people-smugglers are telling migrants that the EU is going to close the Mediterranean Sea route. BBC and International Organization For Migration and International Business Times
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The EU-Turkey refugee deal seems to be hanging by a thread. Last week's vote by the EU parliament to recommend ending negotiations for Turkey's membership in the EU has infuriated the Turks, especially president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said angrily, "Look, if you go further, the border gates will be opened. You should know that."
In fact, there are reports from Greece's intelligence unit that Erdogan has ordered that refugees be lined up along the Aegean Sea, ready to cross to Greece. The report indicates that as many as 3,000 refugees would cross every day, which would amount to about one million in a year.
Other reports indicate that some European nations are almost in a state of panic, and are making preparations. Serbia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Croatia and Hungary are reportedly planning to build fences and barriers that would effectively divide Europe in two, and seal off most of the continent.
However, some analysts are doubting Erdogan would ever launch this "nuclear option." The threat of ending the EU-Turkey refugee deal is a huge piece of leverage for Turkey in negotiations on any subject, and once he abrogated the deal, he would lose his negotiating leverage and invite retaliation.
In the past I've suggested my own possible scenario, which I've never seen discussed in the media. Ending the EU-Turkey refugee deal isn't a binary on or off decision. For example, Erdogan could move some of his troops from the coast along the Aegean Sea to southeastern Turkey to meet the threat from the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Protection from PKK would be perfect cover for a decision that would permit a small to moderate increase in the refugee flow. This would serve notice to the EU that more troops could be moved away at any time, to increase the refugee flow some more. This would permit Turkey to retain its negotiating leverage, although the fact that it was cold-blooded extortion would still be perfectly obvious. Independent (London) and Pro Thema (Greece) (Trans) and Express (London) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Dec-16 World View -- Europeans wonder if Turkey will reopen the refugee floodgates thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Dec-2016)
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