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Sharp disagreements ahead over the 60 billion euro
Brexit 'divorce settlement'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The leaders of the EU-27, the 27 member nations of the European Union not including Britain, laid out their negotiating demands for the United Kingdom at a meeting in Brussels on Saturday.
The UK passed the Brexit referendum, calling for Britain to leave the European Union, on June 23 of last year. On March 29 of this year, Britain's prime minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, making the Brexit process irreversible, and triggering a two-year period of negotiations before the exit is final. Theresa May has called for new elections on June 8, and so serious negotiations are expected to begin at that time.
Britain would like to immediately start negotiating a trade deal, but the EU leaders on Saturday said that trade could not be discussed at all until the terms of the "divorce" had been resolved. In particular, the EU-27 is demanding that three questions be resolved first:
The purpose of Saturday's meeting in Brussels was to get approval from the 27 remaining countries of the EU on the negotiation guidelines. EU officials bragged that the negotiation guidelines were approved unanimously within four minutes.
The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Jüncker, warned Britain that many British politicians were vastly overestimating the benefits that they'll gain from Brexit, and vastly underestimating the difficulties that they'll have in the Brexit negotiations:
"We have already prepared a text that could be adopted immediately if our British friends would be willing to sign it, but that probably won’t happen. I have the impression sometimes that our British friends, not all of them, do underestimate the technical difficulties we have to face. ... Privately everything went well but we have a problem, the British want to leave the EU and it's not feasible that it can be done just like that.The single question of citizens' rights is in fact a cortège of 25 questions that have to be solved.
I would like to state very clearly that we need real guarantees for our people who live, work and study in the UK and the same goes for the Brits. The commission has prepared a full list of the rights and benefits that we want to guarantee for those affected by Brexit. To achieve sufficient progress we need a serious British response."
As an aside, I chuckled at Jüncker's use of the word "cortège." Jüncker was undoubtedly referring to some (unpublished) list of 25 questions, but the word "cortège" is a French word usually used in the context of a funeral procession, which perhaps Jüncker was afraid was happening.
According to the guidelines, negotiations on trade and other issues cannot begin until the three issues listed above have been resolved. BBC and Daily Mail (London) and EU Negotiation Guidelines
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Britain's prime minister Theresa May rejected some of the hardline demands that were put forth at Saturday's meeting in Brussels. She said that she was sticking to her own demands outlined in a speech earlier this year which included tariff-free trade, ending the jurisdiction of European courts and stopping free movement of migrants.
According to May, "What matters sitting around that table is a strong Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, with a strong mandate from the people of the United Kingdom which will strengthen our negotiating hand to ensure we get that possible deal."
One of the most difficult demands will be the Brexit "divorce settlement," the demand that Britain commit to pay 50-60 billion euros to the EU to cover EU spending up until 2020 when the current budget runs out. According to the negotiating guidelines:
"10. A single financial settlement should ensure that the Union and the United Kingdom both respect the obligations undertaken before the date of withdrawal. The settlement should cover all legal and budgetary commitments as well as liabilities, including contingent liabilities."
The settlement includes such things as pension payments to British nationals working for EU employers, and spending commitments for contributions to EU projects and social programs, based on past agreements. It also includes guarantees on loans such as the bailout of Ireland, and spending on infrastructure and structural funds agreed to but still to be financed.
An additional demand is that all amounts must be paid in euros. This is a particularly painful demand, because the British pound currency has lost almost 10% in value since the Brexit referendum passed last year. Telegraph (London) and Daily Mail (London) and Politico (EU)
Early versions of yesterday's article on Macedonia contained several errors. They've been corrected in the final version. I apologize for the errors.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Apr-17 World View -- European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Apr-2017)
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Brief generational history of Macedonia
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Thursday evening, thousands of ethnic Macedonians surrounded Macedonia's parliament building in the capital city Skopje, and then stormed the building. The protests were triggered when an ethnic Albanian was controversially elected to the post of parliament speaker. The scene was calm by Friday morning, with reports indicating that about 100 people have been injured and in hospitals. (Paragraph corrected, 29-Apr)
The Macedonians are protesting unending government corruption, as well as demands by Albanian nationalists for a "Greater Albania," an enlargement of the current Albania to include ethnic Albanian populations for neighboring countries.
The idea of a Greater Albania was launched in the late 1800s, and was favored by Nazi Germany and Italy's Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini during World War II. It was revived during the brief Macedonian civil war in 2001, and is pursued by Albanian nationalists. Many people consider the Albanian nationalist movement to be a danger to the entire region, because it might ignite further wars.
Other analysts see no fear of war, and several politicians are blaming the whole incident on the United States and the European Union for meddling. Reuters and Macedonia Online and B92 (Belgrade)
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The most famous leader in Macedonia's history is Alexander the Great, considered by many to be the most brilliant military leader of all time. He was born in 356 BC, and became King of Macedonia upon his father's death in 336 BC. He created a vast empire from Greece to Egypt to Persia to India by the time of his death in 323 BC.
Upon his death, Macedonia and his entire empire were thrown into a succession of violent upheavals. For centuries, Macedonia was important because it controlled the major trading and transportation routes through the Balkans.
Macedonia was part of the Ottoman Empire from 1371 to 1912. The Balkan Wars of 1912-13 were a generational crisis war for Macedonia, resulting in the country parts of the country under the control of Greece and Serbia.
After the war, Macedonia became part of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. World War II was a non-crisis war for Macedonia. The country was split, with Italian-ruled Albania annexing the western portion, and pro-German Bulgaria annexing the eastern portion. After WW II, Yugoslavia was reconstituted, including Macedonia.
From the point of view of generational theory, Macedonia is a country that's very difficult to analyze because a constant stream of invasions by neighboring country leave it with no unique history timeline. Macedonia is landlocked, surrounded by Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Albania, and all of these countries have, at one time or another, invaded and controlled Macedonia.
However, when viewed as a part of the Balkans as a whole, its generational timeline becomes clearer. The Balkan wars of 1912-13 were a crisis war that threw the country into decades of chaos, until it was brought under control by the brutal, bloody dictatorship of Marshall Josip Broz Tito starting in 1953, as a Communist satellite of the Soviet Union.
Tito's death in 1980 coincided with the beginning of generational Crisis era for the Balkan countries, roughly 60 years after the end of World War I. The coalitions that Tito had held together with bloody force began to disintegrate, and in 1991, new Balkan wars began as generational crisis wars. The Bosnia war in particular, ending in 1995, was one of the bloodiest and most brutal wars of recent times.
In Macedonia, the biggest tensions were between the ethnic Macedonians, with 64% of the population, and the ethnic Albanians, with 25% of the population. The result was a brief civil war in 2001 started by an uprising by ethnic Albanians. There have been sporadic flare-ups between the two ethnic groups since then.
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Macedonia has been in the news in recent for other reasons that are worth summarizing now:
History World and History of Macedonia and NBC News
In the course of researching this article, I came across the Heidelberg Conflict Barometer, from the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research, which is one of the most complete listings and analyses of conflicts going on in the world today. It identifies 18 different disputes currently in the Balkans.
This study is invaluable for anyone analyzing the world's conflicts today. What the study lacks is any attempt to relate the conflicts to generational timelines. Any college student interested in these subjects could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, the problem of relating all today's conflicts to generational timelines. RFE/RL and Heidelberg Conflict Barometer 2016
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Apr-17 World View -- Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Apr-2017)
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Israeli analyst: A new war with Hezbollah might involve all of Lebanon
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Syria's news agency SANA reported that Israel's warplanes struck a military arms depot in Syria near Damascus. The arms depot is believed to be run by Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is controlled by Iran. The airstrikes took place before dawn on Thursday, and resulted in massive explosions that could be seen and heard for miles.
Israel has taken no sides in the war in Syria, but has struck weapons depots and convoys from time to time in the past when it believes that the weapons are advanced and are intended for delivery to Hezbollah in Lebanon to be used against Israel. The advanced weapons may include precision rockets, advanced anti-aircraft missiles, surface-to-surface missiles and surface-to-ship missiles.
Usually, Israel refuses to either confirm or deny that it was responsible for any missile attack, but on Thursday, Israel's intelligence minister Israel Katz made a statement that comes very close to confirming that Israel was responsible:
"I can confirm that the incident in Syria corresponds completely with Israel's policy to act to prevent Iran's smuggling of advanced weapons via Syria to Hezbollah in Iran. Naturally, I don't want to elaborate on this.The prime minister has said that whenever we receive intelligence that indicated an intention to transfer advanced weapons to Hezbollah, we will act."
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova mildly condemned the Israeli action, but suggested that they might be "justified":
"Gross violations of Syrian sovereignty, no matter how they are justified, are unacceptable. Moscow condemns acts of aggression against Syria."
The most serious incident of this kind occurred in mid-March, when an Israeli attack on a weapons convoy traveling to Lebanon was destroyed by Israeli warplanes. There was an unprecedented missile clash over Jordan when Syrian Russian-made S-200 ground to air missiles targeted the Israeli planes without success, but were shot down over Jordan by Israel's Arrow 3 anti-missile defense system.
These Israeli airstrikes have been going on for years, with an occasional diplomatic condemnation from Russia, like the mild condemnation quoted above, but no military response, although Russia could presumably attack Israel's warplanes with an advanced anti-missile system. It's widely believed that Russia and Israel have an agreement to allow these airstrikes since they have the purpose of preventing a larger regional war between Hezbollah and Israel, which would not be to Russia's liking. BBC and AFP and SANA (Damascus) and Jerusalem Post
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In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a war that was disastrous for both sides, as it ended in stalemate after a great deal of mutual destruction.
In an interview on the BBC, Giora Eiland, former head of the Israeli National Security Council, discussed Israel's strategy with regard to the Syria war and a possible future war with Hezbollah. He said that the number one threat that Israel faces is not the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), especially since ISIS is diminishing in power because of attacks on it in Syria. The number one threat that Israel faces is a new war with Hezbollah (my transcription):
"I think that we have to understand something that is much more important than this kind of very delicate game, and this is what might happen maybe in this summer if the problems in Syria are not necessarily resolved but if Hezbollah, Iran, the Syrians and the Russians feel that they are are the winning side, and Hezbollah might begin to think about the next phase -- the next phase might be to find a reason to be in full confrontation with Israel, and I cannot exclude the possibility that Iran will push them to do something like this.And this is something that might bring the whole Middle East to be in a very different situation. And the main message is this: contrary to all previous times, when Israel and Hezbollah had some kind of direct confrontation between them, this time if a fire is launched from Lebanon against Israel, it will lead not only to confrontation with Hezbollah, but to a real confrontation or even a declared official war between Israel and Lebanon. And this is something that might change the regular stories of the Middle East, and I think that Israel might be taking such an approach, because the only way to end the next cycle of violence quickly is to attack Lebanon, and to threaten that the whole state of Lebanon might be devastated, and this might be the only to get the international community to intervene, and to stop the aggression. And this is a scenario that cannot be excluded. ...
Number one threat for Israel is not ISIS but -- the threat of ISIS is diminishing because of the success of others. If Iran feels it's winning in Syria, it might take advantage of it and send some of its proxies to Lebanon and also the Golan Heights, and might encourage Hezbollah to open another confrontation with Israel. If Hezbollah decides to fight Israel, and since they have missiles that can cover all of Israel, and the number of missiles are tens of thousands, many of them are accurate weapons, then Israel might face a problem that we never faced in the past, and it might lead Israel to take some extreme measures."
This analysis by Eiland is realistic, but is delusional in one area: If there is a war between Israel and Hezbollah, with thousands of Hezbollah missiles hitting Israeli targets, and it expands to "a declared official war between Israel and Lebanon," then the international community will not be able to end it.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. This is coming with 100% certainty, irrespective of what Israel and Hezbollah do. AP and LA Times
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Apr-17 World View -- Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Apr-2017)
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The phrase 'Code of Conduct' is the new code word for appeasement
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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This week's meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is generating controversy because the draft statement to be issued makes no mention of China's militarization of the South China Sea or the dramatic ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague declaring China's claims and activities in the South China Sea to be illegal.
The person who is going easy on China is this meeting's rotating chairman, who this year is Philippine's president Rodrigo R. Duterte. In October of last year, Duterte went to Beijing and met with China's president Xi Jingping. In exchange for receiving millions of dollars in investments and loans from China, Duterte agreed to cancel some agreements with the United States and to forget about China's illegal activities in the South China Sea.
Last year's ASEAN statement emphasized the importance of "non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities, including land reclamation." But Duterte's watered-down statement will drop references, or even allusions, to China's construction of artificial islands and the military hardware it has placed on them. Instead, the statement says:
"We reaffirmed the importance of enhancing mutual trust and confidence, exercising self-restraint in the conduct of activities, avoiding actions that may further complicate the situation."
The Philippine people view the United States far more favorably than they do China, and so Duterte's flip-flop on China has never been particularly possible. Duterte's own defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana has vocally expressed criticisms of China's activities, especially as it seemed that China plans to build another military base on the critical Scarborough Shoal.
On Tuesday, the former foreign affairs Secretary Albert Del Rosario raised 5 concerns about Duterte's appeasement policy:
Of course Duterte has no answer to Rosario's questions. Rosario says that the Philippines should take full advantage of last year's PCA ruling, and make sure that international law is upheld in the region. According to Rosario:
"Philippine interests are best promoted when all states, of any size or power, adhere to the commonly agreed upon standards that govern countries’ rights and relationships. International law, in my view, is the great equalizer. Through it, a country of 100 million people is the equal of one that is more powerful, and that is more than ten times its size.As this year’s chair of ASEAN, the Philippines has a unique and an important opportunity to dwell on how we can work with our neighbors to ensure that this rules-based order succeeds. The purpose of our cooperation should go beyond maintaining friendly ties; we must also cooperate to ensure that we live in a neighborhood where countries follow the rules and uphold their commitments."
Duterte's proposed statement may yet be changed before it's officially issued by ASEAN on Saturday. Other ASEAN members whose territories in the South China Sea that China is confiscating include Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei. They may pressure Duterte to make a more aggressive statement. However Cambodia, which also receives a great deal of money from China, would fight such a move, and force a compromise similar to Duterte's appeasement statement. Manila Times and Reuters and Rappler (Philippines)
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There's a new code phrase used by people who want to appease China. The phrase is "Code of Conduct" or CoC. The idea is to negotiate with China to agree to a code of conduct in the South China Sea, so that everyone can live in peace. It's totally laughable to believe that China would agree to any code of conduct, or to follow any code of conduct it agreed to, but calling for a CoC is the easy solution for someone who doesn't want to confront China.
There's an obvious comparison to the United States relation with North Korea. For decades, the US appeased North Korea, hoping that appeasement could end its development of nuclear weapons. It hasn't worked, as North Korea is now on the verge, within perhaps a couple of years, of developing a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile that could reach the United States.
The policy of appeasing North Korea has been a complete failure, and now under president Donald Trump the policy is being reversed to be a lot more confrontational.
Duterte's policy of appeasement toward China is not going to work either. China is determined to continue with its heavy militarization of the South China Sea and, perhaps within a couple of years, will have the entire South China Sea under its military control.
The US also has a policy of appeasement toward China. As regular Generational Dynamics readers know, China has been aggressively preparing for full-scale war with the United States for years. They've developed one nuclear ballistic missile system after another, and manufactured perhaps hundreds of those missiles, with no other purpose than to destroy American cities, military bases and aircraft carriers. These developments have been deliberately planned, and it's clear that China plans to attack at a time of its own choosing. The US has chosen to ignore this vast military buildup directed at us, just as Duterte is ignoring China's military buildup in the South China Sea.
Appeasement as a strategy doesn't work, and leads to war. North Korea is developing is nuclear-tipped missile, China is continuing to militarize the South China Sea and also to develop missile systems targeting the United States, and in 1938 Britain's prime minister Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Adolf Hitler didn't prevent World War II.
The problem is that the opposite of appeasement also doesn't work, and also leads to war, perhaps more quickly. If Neville Chamberlain had declared war on Nazi Germany instead of declaring "peace in our time," then WW II would simply have occurred sooner. Donald Trump is currently discovering that there's no credible way to prevent North Korea's development of a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile without a major war that would devastate South Korea. The Philippines could do nothing to stop China's huge military buildup in the South China Sea, so Rodrigo Duterte decided to make the best of it by getting some money out of the situation. If you're going to die anyway, you might as well get 30 pieces of silver first. And no one even wants to think about some alternative to appeasement of China in view of that country's evident plans for a preemptive attack on the United States.
There's a halfway measure - sanctions, but that hasn't worked either in the case of North Korea, which has survived enormous sanctions.
As with so many problems that I've written about over the years, these problems have no solution. In each case, the rogue countries will continue that path to full-scale war, and other countries will use appeasement because there's no other way to proceed. Finally the war begins, causing millions or billions of deaths, and it ends with an international conference that issues a statement saying "Never again," but it always happens again. Inquirer (Manila) and Philippine Star
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Apr-17 World View -- Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Apr-2017)
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US State Dept. says that it's 'deeply concerned' about the Turkish airstrikes
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In Syria, Turkey's warplanes struck Kurdish militias known as the People's Protection Units, or YPG, who are allies of the US-led coalition fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The YPG said that Turkey's airstrikes killed 20 of its fighters and wounded 18 others, and caused extensive damage to YPG headquarters and nearby civilian property.
Although the US considers the YPG to be the most effective fighting force on the group against ISIS, Turkey considers them to be an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK have been conducting an anti-government insurgency in Turkey since 1978, and have conducted numerous terror attacks on civilian targets in Turkey.
The YPG denounced the airstrikes as "treacherous," accusing Turkey of undermining the fight against ISIS. "By this attack, Turkey is trying to undermine the Raqqa operation, give ISIS time to reorganize and put in danger lives of thousands of [people]."
In Iraq, Turkish warplanes struck Kurdish targets in the Qandil mountains in northeastern Iraq and on Sinjar mountain in northern Iraq. The PKK stronghold is in the Qandil mountains, and Turkey's warplanes have been targeting that region for years.
The strikes on Sinjar mountain are a new development. According to reports from Kurdish sources, one PKK fighter was killed, but the airstrikes also killed five Peshmerga and wounded nine others. Peshmerga are the Kurdish militias that are part of the effort to expel ISIS from Mosul.
The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), which says that it is distinct from the PKK, condemned the airstrikes on Sinjar mountain, but also asked the PKK to leave the area.
The Iraqi parliament's deputy speaker denounced the airstrikes in Sinjar, saying that they have no justification:
"The air strikes will affect the relations between both countries and will spoil stability in the area while the Iraqi forces are launching operations against ISIS in Mosul."
A military statement from Turkey said that the airstrikes hit shelters, ammunition depots and key control centers, to prevent infiltration of Kurdish rebels, weapons, ammunition and explosives from those areas across the border into Turkey:
"To destroy these terror hubs which threaten the security, unity and integrity of our country and our nation and as part of our rights based on international law, airstrikes have been carried out ... and terrorist targets have been struck with success."
The statement said that dozens of militants were "neutralized." AP and NRT TV (Kurdistan) and Deutsche Welle
At least 10 Turkish soldiers were killed in two separate attacks the PKK on Sunday, in the southeastern cities of Diyarbakir and Sirnak.
On Saturday, Turkey's military reported the death of 14 PKK fighters in two separate offensives, also in southeastern Turkey. ARA News
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Turkey has long objected to the use of any Kurdish militias in the fight against ISIS in either Syria or Iraq, and has taken its own military action in Syria to block attempts by the Kurds to create an independent Kurdish state of Rojava along the northern border of Syria with Turkey.
However, this has brought the US and Turkey into sharp disagreement, the Kurdish militias in Syria and Iraq have been extremely effective in fighting ISIS, and indeed are thought to the most effective fighting force against ISIS.
On Tuesday, US State Department spokesman Mark Toner expressed deep concern over Turkey's airstrikes:
"Now, turning to Turkey, and I think it was your last question, so we are very concerned – deeply concerned – that Turkey conducted airstrikes earlier today in northern Syria, as well as northern Iraq, without proper coordination either with the United States or the broader global coalition to defeat ISIS. And we’ve expressed those concerns to the Government of Turkey directly. These airstrikes were not approved by the coalition and led to the unfortunate loss of life of our partner forces in the fight against ISIS that includes members of the Kurdish Peshmerga. I would also note that the concerns – or rather note the concerns expressed by the Government of Iraq and reaffirm our view that military action in Iraq should respect Iraqi sovereignty.And just finally, given the very complex battle space in these areas, it’s vital that Turkey and all partners in the effort to defeat ISIS coordinate their actions as closely as possible as we work together to maintain pressure to destroy ISIS on the battlefield in order to ensure that we meet that goal but also that we ensure the safety of all coalition personnel who are operating in that – as I said, in that theater."
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized for the death of the Peshmerga fighters. He contradicted Toner by claiming that the US had been informed of the airstrikes in advance, and said that the airstrikes will continue:
"We are obliged to take measures. We must take steps. We informed the US, Russia, northern Iraq and [Kurdish President Masoud] Barzani before we bombed PKK positions in Sinjar. We will not allow Sinjar to become a PKK base.Our operations in Sinjar and northern Syria will continue."
Turkey's airstrikes in Syria are becoming particularly dangerous. There are now roughly three different sets of forces operating in Syria: The Syrian regime + Russia, Turkey + the Free Syrian Army comprised mainly of ethnic Syrian Turkmens, and the US-led coalition + the Kurdish militia.
These three forces are currently united only because of the fight against the common enemy, ISIS. But once ISIS has been expelled from its stronghold Raqqa, then they may turn on each other. The Kurdish YPG has already threatened revenge against Turkey for Tuesday's airstrikes.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. State Dept. and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and CNN
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Apr-17 World View -- Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Apr-2017)
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Even Pakistan is shocked by three blasphemy murders in 11 days
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In Pakistan, accusing someone of defiling Islam or the Prophet Mohammed, even if the accusations are 100% false, is a free ticket to murder someone with impunity.
Blasphemy has long been treated as a crime in many countries, including Christian countries, although rarely enforced. Many countries have repealed their blasphemy laws.
In Pakistan, blasphemy laws were first codified by the British colonial rulers in 1860, and expanded in 1927. Pakistan inherited these laws after Partition in 1947 created the country. Between 1947 and 1985, there were only 14 known legal cases of blasphemy. But in 1986, Pakistan broadened the blasphemy laws and made it a capital offense. Since that year, over 4,000 cases of blasphemy have been registered. Since 1990, there have been at least 66 murders over unproven allegations of blasphemy.
The law, as it was passed in 1992, said:
"Whoever by words, either spoken or written, or by visible representation or by any imputation, innuendo, or insinuation, directly or indirectly, defiles the sacred name of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) shall be punished with death, or imprisonment for life, and shall also be liable to fine."
So anyone accused of blasphemy can be jailed, tortured and executed. There is apparently no need for blasphemy accusers to provide proof, and therefore someone accused of blasphemy has no defense. Analysts claim that blasphemy laws are most often used against Christians, Shia Muslims, and other non-Sunni Muslim sects such as the Ahmadis.
Prior to 2011, there were many calls to reform the blasphemy laws. But in 2011, Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab province, tried to reform the blasphemy laws, and was shot dead by his own bodyguard. For years the murderer was not prosecuted, but was actually treated as a hero by other politicians and lawyers for having killed a blasphemer -- using the twisted logic that calling for reform of the blasphemy laws is itself an act of blasphemy worthy of instant murder.
Since then, politicians in fear of their lives have refrained from calling for any reforms to the blasphemy laws, while judges and lawyers are afraid to defend accused blasphemers, even when there's no evidence. The result is that blasphemy charges are freely used for personal disputes, and even allow a murder with impunity. BBC (6-Nov-2014) and Christians In Pakistan and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Reuters (20-Apr)
In recent years, I've reported on dozens of terror attacks by Pakistan terror groups on Pakistan civilians. These most often target Shia Muslims, and a single terror attack might kill dozens or even hundreds of people, including women and children.
If terror attacks are used for mass slaughter, then killing based on the blasphemy laws can be thought of as terror attacks on an individual basis. If you don't like your next door neighbor, you probably can't kill him with a bomb, but you can shoot him dead after accusing him of blasphemy. And if he's a Shia Muslim or Christian, there'll usually be no punishment.
However, there have been a sudden rash of the blasphemy killings, with three of them in the 11 days, causing the normally unshockable people in the Pakistani public to actually be shocked.
On April 13, college student Mashal Khan was accused of blasphemy by his roommates in a hostel where they were all living. The mob of roommates brutally lynched Mashal Khan, beating him before shooting him in the head and chest. The mob then continued to beat his dead body with sticks.
Apparently Mashal's crime was a tv interview where he complained about the administration of the college he was attending, and called for reduced college fees. Mashal's cousin wants to go to college, but his father is telling him, "Don’t go to a university. They kill children there."
Since then, two other blasphemy charges have turned into mob violence. On April 19, three girls in their 20s wearing burqas shot dead Fazal Abbas. Abbas had been accused of blasphemy in 2004, and had fled the country to Denmark. He only returned to Pakistan recently to defend himself against the blasphemy charges. He was out on bail when the three girls killed him. One was quoted as saying, "we couldn’t kill him at the time [2004] because we were too young then."
On April 21, Rashid Ahmed was accused of uttering "blasphemous remarks" during Friday prayers at a mosque in northwest Pakistan. The worshippers in the mosque started beating the man. Six police officers were injured trying to rescue him. The mosque's imam saved him, and turned him over to police.
According to witnesses, Ahmed entered the mosque asking to make an important announcement. He then declared himself a messiah and said he would lead his followers to paradise. According to police, the man is suffering from mental illness.
These brutal murders have shocked Pakistan, and there are renewed calls to reform the blasphemy laws. But there's little hope of any real reform. This is a country that pays terrorists to attack targets in India and Afghanistan, and the same psychopathic vitriol that permeates Pakistan's clerical establishment also protects the blasphemy laws and particularly their use in freely killing Shia Muslims and Christians. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Al Jazeera and Geo TV (Pakistan 18-Apr) and Express Tribune (Pakistan)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Apr-17 World View -- In Pakistan, you may murder anyone with impunity by accusing him of blasphemy first thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Apr-2017)
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Battle between Kenya's farmers and herders morphs into tribal conflict
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Well-known Italian conservationist Kuki Gallmann, 73, was shot in the stomach on Sunday by herders who invaded her Gallmann Laikipia Nature Conservancy in Laikipia county in Kenya's Rift Valley. Gallmann was airlifted to Nairobi for treatment.
Hours later on the same day, a Kenya police reservists was shot and seriously injured by herders at the Sosian Ranch, also in Laikipia country. In early March, Tristan Voorspuy, a British citizen and former British army officer, was ambushed by herders and shot dead.
Ms. Gallmann's Laikipia Nature Conservancy has been under attack by herders off and on for months. Last month, cattle herders burned down her lodge. The lodge is s frequented mainly by European tourists, who can pay more than $650 a night to stay. However, no visitors were present when the lodge was burned down.
On Sunday, Ms. Gallmann was patrolling her ranch when she was ambushed and shot near her home. Security officers shot some of the herders and captured them.
The big picture, that I've described many times in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s, is that this is part of a classic and recurring battle between herders and farmers. The farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down. Daily Nation (Kenya) and NPR and Citizen TV (Kenya)
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Early in 2008, there was a period of extremely bloody inter-tribal violence in Kenya. The worst atrocity occurred when 30 people died in a fire. Dozens of people had gone to the church to escape increasing violence, when a youthful gang set the church on fire, trapping people inside.
The violence was described as "ethnic cleansing." The Kalenjins, whose nomadic lifestyle was typical of herders, were "cleansing" a region of a different tribe, the Kikuyus, who were mostly farmers, either killing the Kikuyus or forcing them to leave the region. The violence was triggered when Mwai Kibaki, the leader of the Kikuyu tribe, was elected president of Kenya in December 2007.
Today's renewed violence in and around the Rift Valley is also heavily tied into politics, especially with another election scheduled for August. President Uhuru Kenyatta is from the market-dominant Kikuyu tribe, while the opposition Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD), is led by Raila Odinga of the marginalized Luo tribe, which is an offshoot of the Kalenjins.
Dating back to British colonial times, the Kikuyu tribe has been market-dominant, and the Kikuyus, as well as Europeans like Gallmann, owned large tracts of land for farming and conservancy. As the population of Kalenjins has grown, the population of their cattle and other livestock has grown as well. So it was inevitable that sooner or later a clash would occur.
But farmers and land owners are claiming that politicians from the Kalenjins and other nomadic tribes are actually inciting violence by the herders. According to Martin Evans, chairman of the Laikipia Farmers' Association:
"It started a year ago. At the time it started, there was plenty of rain, it was nothing to do with lack of grass at that time so yes, I think it's definitely being pushed by politicians."
Farmers are accusing politicians and police of being cattle owners who stand to gain from the attacks. According to an NPR analyst:
"You have nomadic herders who are moving into private wildlife conservancies with thousands of heads of cattle. And in response, the Kenyan government launched a military-style operation to push the herders out. But what we've seen is an escalation of violence. Police have killed lots of cows. And the herders have responded by burning tourist lodges on the properties."
In the past, there was a friendly relationship between herders and farmers. Farmers would allow herders with small herds to graze on their conservancies. But in the past year, these small herds have turned into thousands of heads of cattle, and farms are being attacked, not by cattle, but by human invaders. After last month's attack on Ms. Gallmann's property, nearly 400 herders were arrested for crimes unrelated to grazing.
Politicians who incite tribal violence are really playing with fire. The current battles between herders and farmers is reviving many of the tribal hatreds that were present during the 2008 violence
The 2008 violence was so bad that many analysts feared that it would spread into a major war. As I wrote at the time, that was very unlikely to happen. Kenya's last generational crisis war was the "Mau-Mau Rebellion." Britain had been exerting a fairly heavy hand as a colonial power, starting from the 1850s. An independence movement began in earnest in the late 1940s, leading to the generational crisis civil war that began in 1952 and climaxed in 1956.
In 2008, only 52 years had passed since the climax of the previous generational crisis war. Generational Dynamics analysis of hundreds of wars in all places throughout history shows that a new crisis war very rarely begins until at least 58 years had passed since the climax of the previous crisis war. That's because until that time, there are still survivors of the previous crisis war in power, and they exert influence and power to prevent a new crisis war from occurring. But after 58 years or more have passed, the survivors no longer had power, and younger generations with no fear of war take over.
So in 2008, a bloody spurt of tribal violence flared, but it fizzled fairly quickly because the time was not yet ripe.
That was 2008. Today, Kenya is in a generational Crisis era, 61 years past the climax of the preceding crisis war, so few of the survivors of that war are still around. So when tribal violence begins in Kenya today, there's a very real possibility that it could spiral into a full-scale generational crisis war, such as happened in Rwanda in 1994, or is happening today in the Central African Republic.
With a new election approaching in August, and with politicians inciting herders to violence, Kenya is in real danger of having a major new tribal war. The Star (Kenya 20-Jan-2017) and NPR (3-Apr) and Telegraph (London 31-Mar) and UPenn - Kenya ethnic groups
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Apr-17 World View -- Kenya's herders attack well-known conservationist, stoking tribal tensions thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Apr-2017)
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Rural America and Working Class America
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Hundreds of thousands of scientists in 600 cities around the world held "March for Science" marches to make largely incoherent demands for more money for pretty much anything. The universal complaint was Donald Trump and climate change, but Obamacare and various science projects were also mentioned.
In other countries, there were other complaints. In Canada, scientists to complain to Liberal leader Justin Trudeau for cutting back on funding for science projects. According to Lori Burrows, professor and senior scientist, McMaster University:
"Despite the [Justin] Trudeau government's promise of sunnier ways for science, we are still waiting for those rays to break through the storm clouds."
So I gather from professor Burrows that Justin Trudeau must be as bad as Donald Trump. Tsk, tsk.
Media coverage was as ridiculous as ever. Here's what I heard from Robert Young, professor of coastal geology at Western Carolina University (my transcription):
"I don't think the people who need to meet a scientist will be at this march nor will those people be experiencing the media coverage of the march. The problem that we have, at least in the United States, is that we all get our information and our news from different sources these days. So the folks living in rural America and working class America, that we would be like to reach in a march for science, and the folks we would like to explain how important science is, they're not gonna be watching the news outlets that will be covering the march in a favorable way. They're not gonna watch National Public Radio, or the BBC, or read the New York Times or the Washington Post or the Guardian.They're going to get their information and their coverage from Fox News and from conservative blogosphere. And those outlets will cover the march in a completely different way in a negative connotation."
Really? The problem is that "rural America and working class America" doesn't listen to left-wing media sources -- NPR, BBC, NYT, WaPost and the Guardian?? That's why these people are marching? This is so idiotic that it's hard to stop laughing. If there are any students at Western Carolina University reading this, please inform Prof. Robert Young that father does not always know best and that he sounds like an idiot.
The real problem is people in the mainstream media and in colleges believe every bit of nonsense that they hear on NPR, etc., and think that everything else is "fake news." So let's talk about climate change, and talk about some "facts." CBS and Canadian Broadcasting and Deutsche Welle
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The climate scientists don't like to talk about this, but climate change has been self-correcting.
Since 2007, the US has reduced CO2 emissions by about 25%, mainly due to fracking, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That's how technological innovation always works. When a problem occurs, somebody figures out a way to make money out of solving it, and the problem gets solved. This needs no help from the government, as shown by the Solyndra disaster.
Everyone is criticizing president Trump for backing out of the Paris climate change agreement. Why? If we're already dramatically reducing carbon emissions, why should America even care about the Paris agreement? The answer, of course, is about money. No one seriously believes that any of the huge climate change proposals will actually do anything to reduce carbon emissions. The climate scientists want America to pay ever more money into their projects. Like Saturday's "March for Science," everything is about political power and money.
Fracking has not yet brought about carbon emissions in other countries, but we can feel certain that new technologies will come along that will solve the problem in every country, as it has in the United States, and that government will have nothing to do with it. AEI and Energy Information Administration
So-called scientists talk endlessly that "climate change is caused by human activity." OK, so let's grant that. Climate change is caused by human activity. Those are the "facts" that scientists claim have been proven.
Next we hear that the earth's temperature will rise 2 degrees by 2100. That's not a "proven scientific fact." That's an unproven prediction, and it's a political prediction at that. There is no science that proves this figure. The figure is based on straight-line extrapolations of recent trends, which cannot be proven or even justified.
As developer of Generational Dynamics, one could say that I'm in the "prediction business." My web site has almost 4,000 articles since 2003, containing hundreds of Generational Dynamics predictions, all of which are coming true or are trending true. None has been shown to be wrong. All these articles and predictions are still available on my web site to anyone wanting to prove me wrong -- and several people have tried and failed. So I'm one of the best experts around on predictions.
That's not true for climate change and environment predictions. History is flooded with hundreds of them from "respected" scientists, many of which have turned out wrong and even spectacularly wrong.
My favorite was the prediction that I read in far left-wing magazine Ramparts Magazine in 1970. The prediction was that the oceans were becoming so polluted that by 1980 the world's oceans would be covered by a layer of algae. It didn't happen.
One of the most respected prediction, endorsed by as many scientists in 1972 as endorse climate change today, was the "Limits to Growth" predictions by the Club of Rome. The report said that the world would grind to a halt because of pollution within a few decades. Some time later, it turned out that their predictions had a flaw based on their computer program written in Fortran. Anyway, their predictions haven't come true.
And of course in the 1970s, the problem was going to be "global cooling." Within twenty years, it had turned into "global warming."
There are hundreds of documented environmental and climate change predictions by respected scientists that have turned out to be wrong. How stupid do you have to be to believe more climate change predictions when so many in the past have been spectacularly wrong?
So yes, climate change really is a hoax, even if you assume that all the science that proves that human activity is true. All the predictions that come after that are not science -- they're guesses, based on unjustifiable extrapolations.
As I said, I'm an expert on making predictions, so I can tell you some places where the climate change scientists are making faulty assumptions.
First, they're assuming that there will be no world wars. There have been world wars every century for millennia, and this century will be no different. As I've written in the past, I expect a world war in the next ten years or so. Nuclear weapons will be used. Lots of factories and power infrastructure will be destroyed.
How will that affect climate change? The climate scientists are afraid to talk about that subject, so I'll take a guess. If a lot of infrastructure is destroyed, then I would guess that carbon emissions will fall dramatically. Of course, climate scientists don't want to talk about that.
Second, climate scientists are completely ignoring technological developments. We already discussed how fracking has reduced US carbon emissions by 25%, something the climate scientists would rather eat mud than ever talk about.
Well, we can see all kinds of technological developments on the horizon that may well have application to carbon emissions and climate change. For example, biotechnology might produce an organism that eats carbon dioxide the way a tree does. Or we may develop space capsules that can deliver millions of tons of carbon dioxide into space. Or computerized robots may be able to clean things up that humans can't.
How will these technological developments affect that 2 degree temperature prediction? Well climate scientists don't know, and I don't know, but history has shown that some solution will emerge.
There's an almost exact historical parallel to the climate change problem that climate scientists hate to even think about. Think of all the cars in New York City, and imagine if those cars were all horses. That's the problem that all big cities had in the 1890s. A horse produces between 7 and 15 kilos of manure daily. In New York in 1900, the population of 100,000 horses produced nearly 1,200 metric tons of horse manure per day, which all had to be swept up and disposed of. In addition, each horse produces nearly a liter of urine per day, which also ended up on the streets. Also, many horses died each day, and their corpses had to be removed.
There was a big international urban planning conference in New York City in 1898. The major topic that dominated the conference was not housing, land use, economic development or infrastructure. It was horse manure. The participants left in disgust.
The crisis was resolved quickly with new technology: the automobile. By 1912 there were more cars than horses on the road in New York City. By 1920, the problem had all but disappeared, with no government intervention.
The same thing will happen with the climate change problem. The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894
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Let's circle back to the real problem in America today, that people like Prof. Robert Young of Western Carolina University are totally contemptuous of "rural America and working class America." People like Young -- and there are plenty of them -- are completely delusional.
The funny thing is that the working class people can sense what's going on, because they have to do real work for a living. When you have climate scientists marching through Washington DC demanding money and claiming that they know what they earth's temperature will be in 2100, when they can't accurately predict the temperature two weeks from now, these worker class people know intuitively that they're being mocked.
Even after all these months, people like Young -- and there are plenty of them -- don't have the vaguest clue how Donald Trump was elected president. It's really quite amazing that Young could say anything as stupid as what's quoted above, but that's how people at NPR, BBC, NYT, WaPost and the Guardian, and that's also how most college professors think these days.
The funny thing is, as I reported above, scientists in Canada are just as angry at the ultra-liberal Justin Trudeau as American scientists are at Donald Trump. If Justin Trudeau doesn't think Canada should spend money on climate change, then why should Donald Trump think that America should do so? In the end, climate scientists don't really care about climate change at all. All they care about is how much money they can get from taxpayers. And since it's the "working class" people who supply all that tax money, they should be more respectful of these people, and far less contemptuous.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Apr-2017)
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Indians seek solutions and blame intervention from Pakistan and China
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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It seems that hardly a day goes by without the situation in Indian-governed Kashmir becoming worse than the day before.
Students studying in colleges in India far from Kashmir are being harassed and beaten by perpetrators described a "nationalist Hindus."
At Rajasthan University, six Muslim Kashmiri students were called "terrorists" and assaulted by locals. According to one:
"Six of us were assaulted in three separate attacks that took place at the same time in the market. The attacks seemed coordinated. They hurled abuses, called us terrorists and said we throw stones at the army. They told us to go back to Kashmir and threatened that they won’t let us study here."
The words "said we throw stones at the army" refers to the worsening situation in Kashmir, where separatists are throwing stones at police and army personnel, and security forces are shooting Kashmiris with pellet guns, sometimes blinding them.
At another college, Rawal Institute of Technology, female Kashmiri students are being harassed and threatened. According to one student, "The boys used abusive language today and followed Kashmiri girls which led to clashes between Kashmir boys and offenders."
I've written enough of these stories about Kashmir to know how emotional the responses to this article will be. Some people will put the blame entirely on the Muslims, or at least on the Kashmiri separatists, and other people will put the blame entirely on the Hindus, or at least on the government security forces.
But I'm just reporting an ongoing situation that gets worse almost every day, and is almost certainly going to lead to war.
India's Home Affairs Minister Rajnath Singh issued a directive saying that the Kashmiris were part of India's "family," and that:
"The Kashmiri youth also contribute in the progress of India. Action should be taken by the states against those who target them."
Many Indians blame the "Islamization" of Kashmir by Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesman Nafees Zakaria said:
"Indian occupation forces have launched an all-out war on Kashmiri students. They have attacked women’s education institutions as well. A dozen colleges have been attacked, injuring thousands of students – both boys and girls."
Whatever the truth is, it's clear that the situation in Kashmir has worsened significantly in the last year, and even worsened significantly in the last couple of weeks. Kashmir Monitor and Kashmir Observer and Express Tribune (Pakistan)
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As I've written many times, the situation in Kashmir is on a trend line that's spiraling into full-scale war. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template.
India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters, Kashmir is showing signs of repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.
Indians accuse Pakistan of encouraging the Kashmir violence, and even supporting it with money and weapons. There's little doubt that the accusations are true. After all, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) organization has funded terrorist groups that have attacked targets in both India and Aghanistan.
And now an opinion writer is blaming China:
"While the Chinese claim to have been miffed over the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang and Arunachal Pradesh, and have now given Chinese names to places in that state to buttress their territorial claims, the reality is that the dragon is keen to have the status quo changed in Jammu & Kashmir too. Reason: large parts of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are critical to its new China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), including land access to Gwadar port in Balochistan.Without the covert Chinese go-ahead to Pakistani aims in J&K, it is doubtful if an economically and politically isolated country would have dared change the game in Kashmir Valley. Here’s what’s new in this round of bloodletting in the Valley. ...
China may not be overtly keen to promote Pakistan-based jihadis who may well end up becoming a headache in its own Xinjiang province, where the Muslim Uighurs are restive. But one thing is certain: it appears to have decided to prop up the Pakistani deep state, both to further its own economic interests, and as a way of containing India.
Chinese pressure on Pakistan to declare Gilgit-Baltistan as its fifth province is key to legalizing its highway to Gwadar, which passes through this area. China has decided that a strong Pakistan is in its interests – and this has negative consequences for India, especially in terms of Pakistan’s Kashmir policy."
It's very likely that this accusation is true as well. After all, China is building artificial islands in the South China Sea, and using its vast military power to threaten regions belonging to Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and India. So China wouldn't hesitate to subvert Kashmir for its own imagined benefit.
The problem is that while these accusations are true, they make no difference. Pakistan, and probably China, have been subverting Kashmir for years, but it had only a transient effect until the last year. What's changed is that the younger generations, with little fear of a new war, are driving the violence. The growing violence in Kashmir is leading to all-out war, and it won't be stopped.
One Indian editorial writer is claiming that the problems in Kashmir can be solved, and that there are three solutions:
Of course these "solutions" are completely delusional, though it's good to have them listed. I do wonder if these solutions might have been effective if they had been adopted wholeheartedly starting in the 1970s. At any rate, it's way too late now.
Furthermore, with Kashmiri students being harassed and beaten in colleges far away from Kashmir, we're seeing the Kashmir violence begin to spread to other parts of India. This is a new development, and it portends more and more violence this summer.
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, and that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the US, India, Russia and Iran. Times of India and BBC and Daily O (India)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Apr-17 World View -- Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Apr-2017)
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With violence in Venezuela's streets continuing, Maduro confiscates GM factories
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Cameroon's president Paul Biya on Thursday finally gave in after 93 days and restored internet access to the "Southern Cameroons," the region of Cameroon populated by English-speaking or Anglophone people.
Biya shut down the internet to Anglophones in November of last year, following clashes between English-speaking (Anglophone) protesters and police. The protests were over discrimination and marginalization of the Anglophones by the French-speaking (Francophone) majority.
The protests were initially led by Anglophone lawyers in the city of Bamenda to protest that the legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with many laws passed without even being translated into English. That demonstration was dispersed by security forces using tear gas.
Two weeks later, the demonstrators were joined by Anglophone teachers who were protesting that the government was deploying Francophone teachers teach the French language in Anglophone regions. The government decided was appointing French-speaking teachers and judges who barely understand English to Anglophone schools and courts.
Thousands of Anglophone Cameroonians brought coffins to the demonstrations, proclaiming that they were ready to die and be burned in their coffins. The demonstrations turned violent when security forces fired tear gas and live bullets to disperse the demonstrators. At least six protesters were shot dead and hundreds others arrested by security forces.
With teachers and lawyers on strike, shutting down the internet was apparently Biya's method of bringing the Anglophones to heel.
However, shutting down the internet has been disastrous for Cameroon's economy. It was particularly disastrous for businesses in the Southern Cameroons, which had no internet access, and so could not conduct business. But individuals were hurt as well, since they couldn't pay bills or make online purchases.
Shutting down the internet was a really dumb thing to do, but Cameroon's economy has lost some $3.1 million because of the internet blackout, according to the French NGO, Internet sans Frontières (Internet without Borders). Furthermore, with the schools shut because of the teachers' strike, Cameroon was threatened with an aid cutoff from UNESCO.
Biya's ending the internet block will not solve the underlying tensions between Anglophones and Francophones, which date back to colonial times when there was a British Cameroon and a French Cameroon. The two colonies were pasted together in what was supposed to be a federal system where the Anglophone and Francophone regions were equal. But, Paul Biya came to power in 1982 and, as usual in African countries, Biya has turned into a dictator. He had hoped that shutting down the internet would make everyone happy and peaceful again, but instead it impoverished and infuriated many people, especially Anglophones. Cameroon Concord and Africa News and Anadolu (31-Mar)
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Venezuela continued to be a showcase for the disastrous outcome of every Socialist government in history, as violence in the streets of Venezuela continued on Thursday, leading protesters to clashes with security forces who used tear gas, beatings and other violence.
The protesters are demanding that president Nicolás Maduro hold elections so that he can be replaced, but like almost every Socialist leader in history, Maduro prefers to have the streets filled with rivers of blood than give up power.
As the economy continues to crash because of his Socialist policies, Maduro is forced to adopt increasingly desperate measures. Last month, he ordered the arrest of bakers because there wasn't enough break available.
Previously, Maduro ordered the jailing of factory owners, but on Thursday, Maduro's Socialist government seized a General Motors plant in Valencia. GM sales have been down in Venezuela because the Socialist government requires that they be paid for in near-worthless bolivar currency, rather than dollars. GM says that it will fight the seizure in Venezuelan courts, but since Maduro controls the courts, GM is unlikely to succeed.
Venezuela's Socialist government has nationalized a number of US companies, or otherwise forced them out of business. Other companies that have cut back or ceased doing business in Venezuela include Kimberly-Clark, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor Company, Clorox Co. and Bridgestone Americas. It has been a policy of Socialist Venezuela to destroy as much of economy as possible, in order to be able to nationalize businesses. As the old Socialist saying goes, you have to crack a few eggs to make an omelet.
As violence increases in the streets, fears are growing that Maduro will call out the army for a full-scale assault on the protesters. However, some reports indicate that there's a growing split within the army, with many soldiers reluctant to attack ordinary Venezuelan citizens including, in some cases, their own family members. Detroit Free Press and Miami Herald and AP
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Apr-17 World View -- Cameroon's president finally caves in, restores internet to English speakers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Apr-2017)
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The threat to the 'European project'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right Front National party is still considered to be a very long shot to become the next president of France, but it's no longer considered an impossibility, mainly because of three factors: the unexpected passage of the Brexit referendum in Britain last year, the unexpected election of Donald Trump in the US last year, and a trend of rising nationalistic, xenophobic political parties in countries across Europe in recent years.
The first round of the presidential elections will be held on Sunday, April 23. There are 11 candidates, so it's almost impossible for anyone to win by getting over 50% of the vote. The top two candidates will then take part in a runoff election on May 7, to determine the final winner. President François Hollande, a Socialist, has had abysmal popularity ratings, and so has chosen not to run for a second term, a decision unprecedented in modern times.
The polls put the top four candidates at around 20% each. Emmanuel Macron is the youngest, a 39-year-old former investment banker, and former economy minister under Hollande. He's considered to be the favorite among the mainstream "globalist" European politicians.
The early favorite was Republican François Fillon, but his support has crashed because of a scandal where he allegedly arranged for his wife to receive a large salary for a job that required little or no work.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the far-left candidate, a kind of political mirror image of Marine Le Pen, though not entirely. Le Pen is anti-immigration, while Mélenchon is pro-immigration, but the two candidates do agree on one important issue: Neither of them likes the euro currency.
Although Le Pen could flame out in the first round, it's widely expected that she will be one of the two leading candidates. Mainstream politicians are hoping a second round matching Le Pen with Macron. In that case, it's expected that Macron will pick up voters from the candidates that have dropped out, while Le Pen's core group of supporters would stay the same, with the result that Macron would defeat Le Pen by a wide margin.
The scenario that most fear is that in the first round on Sunday, the two winners would be the two extremes, the far-right Le Pen and the far-left Mélenchon. This would be considered a disaster for the eurozone, as either one would like to return to the original French franc currency.
After last year's unexpected Brexit and Trump victories, there's a great deal of anxiety among European politicians who fear that anything could happen. BBC and Market Pulse and Foreign Policy and Euro News and Daily Signal
Marine Le Pen is the current leader of the Front National party, which had a strong history of anti-Semitism under its previous leader and founder, Marine Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, a Holocaust denier.
At some point, she came to the conclusion that she and the Front National party could not become successful without completely breaking with its anti-Semitic past. She did so by breaking with her father, and banning him from the party. She has not repeated any of her father's anti-Semitic remarks, and has even condemned them. But in interviews, she's always asked about Jewish issues, and her answers are always heavily scrutinized by a mainstream press that is as consumed with hostility to her as with Donald Trump.
One of the most controversial examples occurred in a recent interview where she insisted that France was not responsible for a July 1942 atrocity known as "Vel d'Hiv," where French officials rounded up 13,000 Jews and turned them over to the Nazis to be deported to Auschwitz. She had to scramble to explain that the "real" French government at that time was in exile, while the perpetrators of the atrocity were the puppet government in Paris under Nazi control.
In fact, Le Pen has appealed to Jewish voters by saying that she's best support of Jews because she's so strongly opposed to Muslim immigrants, essentially using one form of xenophobia to claim that she's innocent of another form of xenophobia. It's quite a remarkable argument.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are two important things to be noted here, things that I've written about many times.
First, nationalism and xenophobia do not come ftom the politicians. They come from the people. If Marine Le Pen had not stepped forward to represent anti-Muslim and possibly anti-Semitic voters, then someone else would have done so, because the people were demanding it.
What a politician can do is represent nationalistic and xenophobic voters, but then do everything possible to ameliorate the worst abuses of those attitudes. As I've noted in the past, Donald Trump has backed off from his early remarks about Mexicans and Muslims, and appears to have adopted a course that takes into account the anxieties of his supporters, while preventing any abuses from taking place. Theresa May in Britain is similarly trying to chart a course that accommodates Brexit supporters, while avoiding total disaster for Britain's economy.
The second important point is that nationalism and xenophobia are growing around the world. Whether it's Chinese vs Japanese, Chinese vs Vietnamese, Buddhists vs Rohingyas in Myanmar, Hindus vs Muslims in Kashmir, or Sunnis vs Shias in the Mideast, nationalism and xenophobia have been growing around the world, in one country after another. This is what always happens in a generational Crisis era, and it always leads to major wars or world wars. The Local (France) and Books and Ideas and Atlantic and News Max
The phrase "European Project" refers to the efforts, begun in the 1950s, to take steps to prevent another massive war in Europe.
It's hard today to remember the mood of the public in those days. Here's what Hannah Arendt wrote in her 1950 book, The Origins of Totalitarianism:
"Two world wars in one generation, separated by an uninterrupted chain of local wars and revolutions, followed by no peace treaty for the vanquished and no respite for the victor, have ended in the anticipation of a third World War between the two remaining world powers [America and the Soviet Union]. This moment of anticipation is like the calm that settles after all hopes have died. We no longer hope for an eventual restoration of the old world order with all its traditions, or for the reintegration of the masses of five continents who have been thrown into a chaos produced by the violence of wars and revolutions and the growing decay of all that has still been spared. Under the most diverse conditions and disparate circumstances, we watch the development of the same phenomena -- homelessness on an unprecedented scale, rootlessness to an unprecedented depth.Never has our future been more unpredictable, never have we depended so much on political forces that cannot be trusted to follow the rules of common sense and self-interest -- forces that look like sheer insanity, if judged by the standards of other centuries. It is as though mankind had divided itself between those who believe in human omnipotence (who think that everything is possible if one knows how to organize masses for it) and those for whom powerlessness has become the major experience of their lives."
The purpose of the European Project was to prove that mankind was not completely powerless after all. If Europe could set up a new world order that would prevent the "sheer insanity" of another world war, then the European Project would succeed. This lead to the Treaty of Rome in 1957, and eventually to the formation of the European Union.
What we see today is huge centrifugal forces pulling the European Project apart.
Whether it's the Brexit referendum in Britain, Marine Le Pen in France, the "True Finns" in Finland, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany, the Golden Dawn party in Greece, the Jobbik party in Hungary, or any of the nationalistic movements in other European countries, what's become clear is that people, particularly young people, have no fear or concerns about the lessons learned in World War II. This is what Generational Dynamics tells us always happens.
In the last century, there were two world wars that destroyed Europe. The first World War was also devastating for Russia and the Mideast, while the second World War was also devastating for Japan and the Pacific. However, there were other massive wars in the last century, in Asia, in Africa, in the Americas. These wars of the last century are not well remembered by Americans, since Americans were not as heavily involved, but they're well remembered by the people of the countries that fought in them.
And that's just the last century. If you look at the earlier centuries -- the 1800s, the 1700s, the 1600s, the 1500s, and so forth -- there were also massive wars in Asia, Europe, the Mideast, Africa and the Americas in those centuries as well. No century has ever escaped this.
The point is that these huge, massive wars have not yet begun to occur in this century, and so people, especially young people, have come to believe that they never will. And yet, there's absolutely no hope of avoiding them. Anyone can see that the world has become increasingly unstable in the last 10 or 15 years, and that countries around the world have become increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic. It's like the world is a pressure cooker, ready to explode.
France enjoyed "La Belle Époque" starting in 1871, with advances in the arts rather than wars. That was the "Old World Order" that Hannah Arendt was talking about in the quote above. And yet, World War I exploded in 1914 completely without warning, when a high school student decided to shoot an Archduke of another country.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Hannah Arendt was right -- that powerlessness is the major experience of our lives. Politicians are powerless to stop the flow of generations, as young, foolish generations displace older, traumatized, experienced generations, and repeat all the mistakes of the past, once again, over and over. BBC and Washington Post and AFP
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Apr-17 World View -- EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory in France's elections thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Apr-2017)
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Iraq says that ISIS and al-Qaeda are in talks to join forces
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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It's now been six months since October 17, 2016, the beginning of the military operation to recapture Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Iraq's army is leading the offensive, with support from the United States with a mix of Special Operations Forces, intelligence and close air support.
But frustrations are growing because progress has been slow. The portion of Mosul on the east side of the Tigris river has already been recaptured, but the dense population, the narrow streets of western Mosul, and the advance preparation of the ISIS fighters combine to slow the operation down to a crawl.
ISIS has booby-trapped streets and buildings with IED bombs, and attacks with suicide motorbike attacks, and sniper and mortar fire. If ISIS fighters are using a particular building as a base or for storage of weapons, local residents are forced to live in the building as human shields, so that it cannot be bombed by American warplanes.
According to the United Nations, the scale of civilians fleeing Mosul is "staggering," and relief efforts have been stretched to the "operational limits." According to a Lise Grande, the UN's Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq:
"Our worst case scenario when the fighting started was that up to one million civilians may flee Mosul. Already, more than 493,000 people have left, leaving almost everything behind,” Lise Grande, the Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq, said in a news release issued by the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).“The sheer volume of civilians still fleeing Mosul city is staggering. ... We are doing everything we can but this has been a long battle and the assault on the old city hasn't started."
The UN claims that since fighting began in October, they've provided some 1.9 million people with food, water, shelter, emergency kits, medical support and psycho-social services.
The UN emphasizes that all parties to the conflict are obliged, under International Humanitarian Law, to do everything possible to protect civilians, ensure they have the assistance they need, and limit damage to civilian infrastructure. Haha. United Nations and Reuters and Al Jazeera
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On Friday of last week, ISIS fired a rocket loaded with chlorine at a neighborhood in western Mosul, injuring seven soldiers, according to Iraqi military sources.
On Sunday, 25 Iraqi soldiers in a unit with US and Australian advisers suffered breathing problems after being hit by a mustard gas attack.
Gas masks are being distributed to Iraqi forces, in case of future gas attacks. AP and CBS News
According to Iraq's vice president Ayad Allawi, ISIS and al-Qaeda are talking about forming an alliance, once ISIS is defeated in Mosul:
"The discussion has started now. There are discussions and dialogue between messengers representing Baghdadi and representing Zawahiri."
Allawi was referring to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and al-Qaeda head Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Although an alliance between ISIS and al-Qaeda might seem like a jihadist's dream come true, the two organizations are like oil and water.
The al-Qaeda linked organization in the region is Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) which renamed itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS) when it cut its ties to al-Qaeda. It did so in order to join forces with Ahrar al-Sham, a "moderate" anti-Assad group that did not want to have any links to jihadist organizations, either al-Qaeda or ISIS. Nominally, JFS is no longer linked to al-Qaeda, although some analysts believe that the links still exist.
ISIS was formed from about 50,000 jihadist fighters from 86 countries that came to Syria to fight al-Assad. These foreigners were not welcomed by the Syrian fighters, either the "moderate" fighters or the al-Nusra Front fighters, and so al-Nusra and ISIS began fighting each other.
For years, al-Assad and ISIS have been effectively allied. That's because ISIS was interested in gaining territory, and that was at the expense of the militias of Syrian citizens. So al-Assad and ISIS both were targeting the Syrian opposition to the government.
Now that ISIS is close to defeat in Mosul, Iraq, and is being attacked by a military operation in its stronghold Raqqa, in Syria, it's not surprising that the two thuggish organizations are talking to each other. In today's bizarro world where it seems that anything can happen, maybe they can find a way to form some kind of working relationship. But what's far more likely is that when ISIS is defeated it will split up, and its members will return to their home countries and, in some cases, perform terrorist acts there. Reuters and Newsweek and Fox News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Apr-17 World View -- UN says lengthy Mosul operation leading to major humanitarian disaster thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Apr-2017)
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Video of Kashmir man tied to jeep further inflames anti-India violence
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Although the violence in India-governed Kashmir has settled down a bit since the large surge that accompanied the elections on April 9, there is still simmering below the surface a great deal of anger - certainly on the part of the Muslims, and almost as much on the part of the Indian security forces.
The picture above is a frame from a video that went viral. It shows a Kashmiri man that the security forces tied to the front of a jeep as it travels down the street. The reason given for tying the man to the jeep was to discourage Kashmiris from throwing stones at the jeep. In the video, a warning can be heard saying that stone pelters will meet the same fate (being tied to a jeep).
The entire video can be seen at this Twitter address.
There are many videos from Kashmir being posted these days, mostly by separatists who want to portray alleged violence by security forces.
However, security forces have also been posting videos. One from polling day on April 9 shows security officers being pelted by stone throwers, and then a young man whacks a security office over the head, causing his helmet to come off and roll down the street. The young men chant "Go India, go back."
This entire video can be seen at this Twitter address.
As I wrote earlier this month, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template.
India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters, Kashmir is showing signs of repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.
Stone-throwing incidents started to become frequent after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the leader of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed by Indian police fire. There was a big surge in violence that continued almost daily until Winter. Security forces responded harshly with pellet guns, with the result that 1,000 people lost their vision in one eye and five were blinded. Thousands of youths have been arrested.
Now Winter is over. It's still only April. Summer doesn't even begin until June 21, and then there are three more months until the Fall. The most likely scenario is that violence is going to continue throughout the summer. At some point, the violence is going to spiral into full-scale rebellion, just as happened in 1857 and 1947. As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Mumbai Times and Deccan Chronicle and DNA India
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My impression, after writing about the Kashmir issue off and on for years, that Indians are in a state of almost total denial about what's happening in Kashmir. In fact, just a couple of months ago I spoke to an acquaintance who had been born in Kashmir and lived there as a child. I asked him what he thought about the growing violence in Kashmir. He said that it was nothing - it had happened before in the 1990s, and would die down again. Of course he didn't understand that in the 1990s there were still plenty of survivors of the 1947 war still around who made sure that it did die down.
Based on my readings of India's media, I'm seeing something different, signs that Indians are becoming aware of how dangerous Kashmir is becoming, and that things might get a great deal worse.
P Chidambaram, a member of the Congress party, which is the opposition to the current government of Narendra Modi, said:
"My position on Kashmir is well known. I have been writing, speaking that we are losing Kashmir. ... The path that the government of Jammu and Kashmir and the central (Indian) government have taken is a perilous path. This path will not lead to any kind of peace or any kind of engagement with the people. ...The answer is not using the Army, the armed forces and the police force. The answer is not a muscular Kashmir policy. The answer is to engage with all stakeholders."
An editorial in the Hindustan Times acknowledges Chidambaram's statement, and says: "The Narendra Modi government wants a new approach and has settled on a policy that combines harsh crackdowns on agitating youth and initiatives that undermine mainstream parties."
According to the article, New Delhi politicians are still in a state of continued denial:
"The Valley is seething – the deaths of teenagers and the presence of those blinded by pellet guns are a constant spur to maintain political purity and distance from India and those working for its institutions.Ordinarily, this would alarm Delhi as there’s a palpable loss of control and India’s image abroad at stake. But the Centre appears unperturbed and is maintaining its aggressive line. There has been no real regret about civilian casualties; instead home minister Rajnath Singh has ominously suggested that India “will see a transformed Kashmir in a year. No matter how the change occurs, one thing is certain, that there will be a change in Kashmir in a year’s time.” He also said those pelting stones “will have to face the consequences.” In February, army chief Bipin Rawat warned youth in Kashmir saying “those who obstruct our operations during encounters and are not supportive will be treated as overground workers of terrorists. They may survive today but we will get them tomorrow. Our relentless operations will continue."
These quotes from New Delhi officials are totally delusional and will lead to disaster. However, they show how strong the sense of nationalism still prevails over common sense.
An editorial in Indian Express says the following:
"It is an unmistakable sign of the corrosion of Indian democracy that an odd combination of illusions and nauseating bravado is being spun in Delhi around the grim political situation in Kashmir. Every element of Indian policy in Kashmir lies in tatters. And yet, instead of asking forthright questions, our denial goes deeper. Kashmir now seems to be going from a deep and violent conflict to a state where there seems to be a death wish all around: Security forces with no means to restore order other than by inflicting death, Indian nationalism now more interested in showing machismo than solving real problems, increasingly radicalized militancy with almost a touch of apocalyptic disregard for life, foreign powers fishing in troubled waters, scores of young men and children even, who are making a statement that courting death seems a better option than what they regard as suffocating oppression. They are all feeding off each other."
This article drew a number of angry, nationalistic comments. Here's a sample:
What's different from the past, as far as I can tell, is that there's a debate emerging between the nationalistic view that "Kashmir is ours, and separatists should be treated harshly," versus "Nothing is working, and we should try something desperate like 'engaging with all stakeholders.'"
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, no solution exists to the growing violence in Kashmir, and the same kind of violence will be repeated as occurred in 1857 and 1947. At some point, possibly this summer, something violent will occur to force Indians out of their state of denial, and into a state of panic. At that point, cooler heads may or may not prevail. Kashmir Media Service and Hindustan Times and Indian Express
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Apr-17 World View -- Worries grow that India is 'losing Kashmir,' as violence increases thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Apr-2017)
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Turkey's referendum results will be closely scrutinized by Europe
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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By a vote of 51% to 49%, Turkey's voters on Sunday approved a referendum giving the president Recep Tayyip Erdogan vast new powers. Declaring victory, Erdogan said:
"For the first time in the history of the republic, we are changing our ruling system through civil politics. ...April 16 is the victory of all who said 'yes' or 'no,' of the whole 80 million, of the whole of Turkey. ...
There are those who are belittling the result. They shouldn't try, it will be in vain. It's too late now."
Erdogan's remarks reflect how deeply split the country is. Those who support Erdogan often consider him to be close to a god, or at least the savior of Turkey, following last year's coup attempt, much like Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded modern Turkey in 1924, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
However, Erdogan's opponents say they're deeply worried that, far from being a savior of Turkey, Erdogan is turning the country into a dictatorship. They refer to the failed coup attempt on July 15 of last year as a "gift" to Erdogan, because it permitted him to institute a devastating purge of over 100,000 of his political opponents, who were arrested or fired with virtually no evidence. Erdogan declared a state of emergency, and then used the emergency powers under the declaration to conduct a sweeping purge of the military, judiciary and civil service.
Erdogan's supporters claim that the purges were necessary following the coup attempt, but opponents point out that Erdogan had already begun the first purges before the coup attempt.
The most dramatic example occurred on March 5 of last year, months before the coup attempt, when Erdogan ordered a government takeover of the only major opposition media publishers in Turkey, the Zaman media group, publishers of Turkey's most popular newspaper, Today's Zaman. On that day, Turkish police forcibly entered the Zaman building, firing tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse protesters who had gathered outside, and forcibly took over the publisher, as we reported at the time.
After the coup attempt, Erdogan arrested and jailed hundreds of additional reporters, creating an atmosphere where any reporter that opposes Erdogan can be immediately accused of treason and jailed.
That's one of several reasons why Erdogan's opponents are saying that the referendum election was invalid. In the months leading up the referendum, the media was flooded with advertising favoring the referendum, with pro-referendum billboards visible everywhere. But anti-referendum advertising was almost nonexistent, out of fear that opposing the referendum could lead to being jailed.
And yet, despite those and other overwhelming advantages, Erdogan was only able to win by one of the slimmest of margins. Furthermore, opponents point to examples of voter fraud and say that they'll demand an investigation, but their demands are not likely to be heeded.
The referendum makes historic changes to Turkey's government. Turkey's parliament will be largely sidelined. The prime minister and Cabinet will be abolished, and ministers will be directly appointed by the president and accountable to him. The president also will set the budget. The president will have the power to dissolve parliament and declare a state of emergency, and will have enhanced powers to appoint judges to the high court and constitutional court. Opponents claim that once these powers become effective in 2019, Erdogan will be able to use these powers to gain even more power, to the point of becoming a total dictator. Hurriyet (Ankara) and VOA and AP
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Following the referendum results on Sunday, politicians in the European Union expressed dismay. One said, "Strange to see democracy restrict democracy," referring to the view that Turkey will be a far less democratic country than it used to be, replacing the democracy with an autocracy.
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) was responsible for observing the election, and will issue a report soon on possible election irregularities. Until then, many EU politicians are withholding comment.
A statement issued by the European Commission warned that since Turkey is a member of the Council of Europe, Turkey's implementation of the referendum must meet the standards of the European Union:
"We take note of the reported results of the referendum in Turkey on the amendments to the Constitution, adopted by the Turkish Grand National Assembly on 21 January 2017.We are awaiting the assessment of the OSCE/ODIHR International Observation Mission, also with regard to alleged irregularities.
The constitutional amendments, and especially their practical implementation, will be assessed in light of Turkey's obligations as a European Union candidate country and as a member of the Council of Europe.
We encourage Turkey to address the Council of Europe's concerns and recommendations, including with regards to the State of Emergency. In view of the close referendum result and the far-reaching implications of the constitutional amendments, we also call on the Turkish authorities to seek the broadest possible national consensus in their implementation."
Officially, Turkey is still a candidate for becoming a member nation of the European Union. However, relations between Turkey and the EU have been increasingly hostile, and few people still believe that Turkey has any chance of becoming an EU member in the near or intermediate future.
In his victory speech on Sunday, Erdogan told his cheering supporters that he would like to reinstate the death penalty. The death penalty in Turkey was ended in 2003 as part of the process to get approval for membership in the EU. Reinstituting the death penalty would end Turkey's bid for EU membership once and for all, but Erdogan presumably believes that it doesn't make any difference.
Another issue hanging in the balance is the refugee deal signed early last year by the EU and Turkey. Under the deal, Turkey agreed with the EU to take back all migrants and refugees who cross to Greece illegally. In return, Turkey would receive financial aid, visa-free travel for all Turkish citizens in Europe's Schengen Zone, and an acceleration of negotiations for Turkey to join the EU.
The deal has been successful in that the number of refugees crossing the Aegean Sea to enter Greece and the EU has been reduced from thousands a day to dozens a day. However, visa-free travel has never been implemented as promised, and negotiations for Turkey to join the EU have almost completely ended.
If the Council of Europe recommends any sort of sanctions on Turkey because of the implementation of the referendum, the Turkey may follow through on its repeated threat to rescind the EU-Turkey deal, and allow the free flow of refugees across the Aegean Sea.
However, some analysts have said that the deal is no longer even necessary, because all the routes through Central and Eastern Europe are now being blocked by fences and barbed wire, so refugees know that if they cross the Aegean, then they won't get any farther than Greece. Statement by European Commission and New Europe and Middle East Eye and National Interest
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Apr-17 World View -- Sharply divided Turkey approves referendum giving Erdogan near-dictatorial powers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Apr-2017)
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Evidence of Bashar al-Assad's war crimes and atrocities continues to grow
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Saturday, a suicide bomber approached a group of buses carrying thousands of supporters of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. He was in a car supposedly carrying food aid to be delivered to the people in the buses. The driver of the car started passing out crisps (potato chips) to children, and when a group of children had gathered around him and his car, he exploded the car bomb. The massive explosion killed over 100, and injured hundreds more.
The buses were evacuating about 5,000 Shia supporters of Shia/Alawite al-Assad from villages near Aleppo under control of the Sunni opposition, to bring them to an area under control of al-Assad's government.
The evacuation was a complex plan as part of a peace deal negotiated by Russia, Iran and Turkey in January. At the same time that Shias were being evacuated from Sunni-controlled areas near Aleppo, there were a similar number of buses evacuating a similar number of Sunnis from government-controlled areas near Damascus.
This complex arrangement of simultaneous evacuations had been stalled for months due to disagreements among various factions as to who would be evacuated. Finally, the buses had all been loaded up and ready to go on Friday, but there were additional delays, and the buses were not permitted to move, making them static targets. After the passengers had been waiting in the buses for about 30 hours, the suicide bomber struck.
Once the explosion had occurred, a decision was made to allow the remaining buses to leave immediately, so that they would no longer be static targets of possible additional attackers.
No one has taken credit for the explosion, but it's assumed that the perpetrators are from the Sunni opposition groups, such as the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS), or the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
There are thought to be two possible motives for the attack.
First, it's possible that it was a revenge attack in response to last week's horrific Sarin gas attack by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, killing up to 100 people. Al-Assad's Sarin attack has infuriated Sunnis throughout the Mideast, and prompted calls for revenge.
A second possible motive is to express opposition to the so-called peace agreement. The farcical agreement was reached by Russia, Iran and Turkey, meeting in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan, in January, but it was considered a joke by many because it did not include any parties who are nominally the opponents in Syria's civil war -- the Bashar al-Assad regime or the Sunni opposition militias. So it's possible that the Sunni opposition perpetrated Saturday's explosion in order to undermine the so-called peace agreement.
Last year, as Bashar al-Assad's warplanes were dropping barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metal and chlorine gas on marketplaces, hospitals, schools and homes in Aleppo, al-Assad issued a delusional statement saying that the destruction of Aleppo would be a victory that would be remembered throughout history, and that it would end the war, since the jihadists would no longer have any reason to continue fighting. We're all still waiting for the war to end and the jihadists to go home. ARA News (Syria) and AP and Reuters (14-Apr)
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Last week's Sarin gas attack by the Bashar al-Assad regime was just the latest atrocity in his years of torture, enforced disappearances, siege warfare and indiscriminate bombing of civilian neighborhoods and hospitals.
A length analysis by the New York Times calls the amount of evidence of al-Assad's war crimes "staggering," but al-Assad continues committing war crimes with impunity. According to the article:
"Three tons of captured Syrian government documents, providing a chilling and extensive catalog of the state’s war crimes, are held by a single organization in Europe. A Syrian police photographer fled with pictures of more than 6,000 dead at the hands of the state, many of them tortured. The smartphone alone has broken war’s barriers: Records of crimes are now so graphic, so immediate, so overwhelming.Yet six years since the war began, this mountain of documentation — more perhaps than in any conflict before it — has brought little justice. The people behind the violence remain free, and there is no clear path to bring the bulk of the evidence before any court, anywhere.
More than 400,000 people have been killed in the Syrian war. Half the country’s population has been displaced. Syrian human rights groups list more than 100,000 people as missing, either detained or killed. Tens of thousands languish in government custody, where torture, deprivation, filth and overcrowding are so severe that a United Nations commission said they amounted to “extermination,” a crime against humanity. ...
Since this month’s chemical attack, residents have reported several attacks with incendiary weapons in Idlib and neighboring Hama provinces, uploading videos that show blinding fires typical of weapons like thermite and white phosphorus. They cause severe burns, similar to napalm, and their use is prohibited in civilian areas. ...
A Syrian man who did four stints of detention and torture for taking humanitarian aid to wounded protesters and rebels recounted his experiences, but then expressed despair that anything would come of it.
“Countries don’t need this evidence — they already know what’s happening. ... We are just pawns on a chessboard. I have women friends who were detained, raped, got pregnant, were tortured with acid. ... There is no justice. And because there is no justice, there is no hope."
This week, the Russians and Syrians began their usual disinformation campaign, claiming that black is white or that there's no evidence that the al-Assad regime was responsible.
The clearest example of how this works occurred after the MH17 passenger plane was shot down over eastern Ukraine by a Russian Buk missile. There was a two-year investigation by a Dutch team that included investigators from Australia, Malaysia, Ukraine, and Belgium. They collected tens of thousands of pieces of evidence, including forensic examinations, witness statements, satellite images, radar data and intercepted telephone calls. Their conclusion was that there is absolutely no doubt that the passenger plane was shot down by a Russian Buk missile shot from by Russians. But the Russians just say it's all manufactured data, as if it were even possible to manufacture that much evidence.
Similarly, there are thousands of pieces of evidence, including forensic collections and analyses, photos, videos, eyewitness testimony, doctors' testimony, the UNSC report, analyses of the UNSC report, and so forth, proving al-Assad's repeated use of chemical weapons, including Sarin gas, chlorine gas, ammonia and phosphorus, and that he used them on hospitals, schools and markets with no military objective except to kill as many innocent women and children as possible.
So I saw Bashar al-Assad interviewed by the AFP on television last week. The guy is a total sleazebag, but I watched as much of the interview as I could stand. He said he has no chemical weapons. Well, that's exactly what he said after his Sarin gas attack in 2013. In that case, he ended up agreeing to let the Americans take control of and destroy 1,300 tonnes of his chemical weapons that he had said he didn't have.
So now he's saying that gave away all his chemical weapons and doesn't have any left. But Brigadier-General Zaher al-Sakat, who was head of chemical warfare in the al-Assad regime until he defected in 2013, has said that al-Assad failed to declare additional tonnes of chemical weapons, including sarin components. There was never any independent verification that al-Assad had declared all his chemical weapons, and al-Sakat's testimony proves that al-Assad was lying.
It's almost unbelievable how much destruction al-Assad has caused. Thanks to al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei, there are about 50,000 jihadist fighters from 86 countries that have come to Syria, first to join the rebels fighting al-Assad, then to join the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS), and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Al-Assad has created the al-Nusra front and ISIS. He's created millions of refugees that have flooded into neighboring countries, and over a million have poured into Europe.
It's now clear to al-Assad that nobody is going to stop him, and he can continue committing genocide as long as he wants, with impunity. Al-Assad is the worst war criminal so far in the 21st century, and nobody is even going to try to stop him. That's the way the world works. And people wonder why we have world wars.
The worst people in the world are the leaders that order their armies to commit genocide, war crimes, atrocities, and crimes against humanity -- people like Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, Robert Mugabe, Josef Stalin, and Bashar al-Assad.
Right behind them, in second place, are people like the people who support al-Assad -- the deniers, the collaborators, the acolytes and the trolls -- the people who defend the war criminals and make the actions of Hitler, Mao, Stalin and al-Assad possible. These are the people that make genocide and war crimes possible, and they are as much to blame as the war criminals themselves. NY Times and Telegraph (London) and Salon
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Apr-17 World View -- Deadly explosion in Syria targets buses carrying 5,000 al-Assad supporters thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Apr-2017)
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Somalia's civil war and the Black Hawk Down incident
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The US is sending dozens of troops to Somalia in order to provide training to Somali forces fighting the al-Qaeda linked Islamist group al-Shabaab.
This is the largest deployment of American troops to the Horn of Africa since American troops were withdrawn in 1994, following the disastrous Black Hawk down incident. In October 1993, a US operation in Mogadishu ended in disaster when two Black Hawk helicopters were shot down, leading to a 15-hour battle that killed hundreds of Somalis and 18 Americans.
About 40 soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division, based in Fort Campbell, Ky, have been sent to Somalia. They will not take part in combat, but will focus on training the Somali army to bolster its logistics capabilities. The Somali government had requested the training, as its war against al-Qaeda based al-Shabaab has been far from decisive. At the same time, the US military is increasing the number of airstrikes against al-Shabaab.
The African Union troops include armies from Kenya and Uganda, but these troops are scheduled to pull out in 2018. The purpose of the US troops is to train the Somalis to fight al-Shabaab on their own, which may or may not be successful. Stars and Stripes and AP and Foreign Policy
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Somalia's civil war ran from 1988 to 1994, but the stage was set decades earlier by the rise of Mohamed Siad Barre, who seized power in 1969 and set up a brutal Marxist totalitarian dictatorship. Siad tried to unify the local clans, but in the end the clans destroyed him and his totalitarian state.
In 1977, next-door-neighbor Ethiopia was in chaos, at the start of a full-scale generational crisis war with Eritrea. Siad tried to take advantage of the chaos by attacking Ogaden, a large region of Ethiopia on Somalia's border, populated mostly by Somalis. Siad had hoped to get the backing of his pals in the Soviet Union, but they betrayed him and sided with Ethiopia.
The result of Siad's abortive invasion was that hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees from Ogaden poured across the border into Somalia, destabilizing the country. These refugees joined with existing claims to attack Siad's regime, with the intention of overthrowing it, leading to full-scale civil war by 1988.
By 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea climaxed. However, Somalia's civil war continued with the destruction of Somalia's crops, causing widespread famine and almost total anarchy in Somalia. Siad was ousted and forced to flee the country, leading to an even bloodier succession battle.
International aid agencies flew food into Somalia to ease the famine, but the food was stolen by warring clan militias. In 1992, the United Nations actively intervened, and sent a peacekeeping force of 35,000 troops in "Operation Restore Hope."
The situation continued to deteriorate, and in October 1993, elite American troops launched a disastrous raid in the Somali capital Mogadishu. Two American Black Hawk helicopters were shot down using rocket-propelled grenades. Some of the survivors were rescued, but two pilots were attacked by a mob of thousands of Somalis who hacked them to death with machetes and dragged their mutilated bodies through the streets as trophies. The result was a 15-hour battle that killed hundreds of Somalis, as well as about 18 Americans and two UN soldiers.
The Black Hawk down incident, also known as the Battle of Mogadishu, had lasting effects on both sides. On the Somali side, the mob attack and ensuing battle appears to be one of the climactic events of Somali crisis civil war.
On the American side, Black Hawk down shocked the public, and was well remembered in books and a major movie. It caused the US to withdraw its forces from Somalia in 1994, and to be reluctant to intervene in African crises since then. So, for example, the US stayed out of the massive Rwanda massacre in 1994, which is probably just as well.
Today, as US troops return to Somalia, the country is in a generational Awakening era, which means that a new generation of kids has grown up hearing stories of the glorious adventures of their fathers in shooting down the two Black Hawks and hacking the pilots' bodies to death, and anxious to have the opportunity to do it again. So there is absolutely no chance at all that the current government of Somalia, with the help of US and African Union forces, will be able to subdue al-Shabaab. History World and BBC and Independent (London - 3-Jan-1995)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Apr-17 World View -- US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Apr-2017)
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China's tripwires for invading North Korea
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In North Korea, Saturday April 15 is called "The Day of the Sun." It's the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder, Kim Il-Sung, whose name means "Sun of the Nation."
Kim Il-Sung was the grandfather of the current child dictator, Kim Jong-un. Kim likes to do provocative things on a regular basis, and particular likes to do something spectacular on April 15.
North Korea's fifth nuclear test was conducted on Sept. 9, 2016. According to a new report from the North Korea monitoring group 38North, North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site is "primed and ready," based on satellite imagery captured two days ago. This suggests that North Korea's sixth nuclear test may occur on Saturday, or in the near future. Other possible dates in the near future are April 25, the 85th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army, or May 9, the date of South Korea's presidential election.
But a lot of analysts will be very surprised if North Korea doesn't perform a new nuclear test, possibly along with some new ballistic missile tests, some time in the next month.
If Kim Jong-un does do something provocative and spectacular, many people are wondering how the United States will respond, particularly since President Donald Trump ordered the missile strike in Syria, after Syria's government killed hundreds of people with a Sarin gas attack two weeks ago, and after Trump ordered the Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula.
On Thursday, Trump wrote a tweet that he believes China will be able to rein in the North. "I have great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A." 38 North and Pravda (Moscow) and Washington Post
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Japan, which is the only country in the world to have been hit by a nuclear weapon, is particularly concerned about being attacked by a North Korean nuclear weapon. Tensions have been particularly raised by North Korea's repeated tests of ballistic missiles launched in the direction of Japan. None of the tests has struck Japanese soil, but some have reached the Sea of Japan.
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been advocating a proposal to develop the capability to directly attack North Korean military bases. Japan is still bound by a post World War II pacifist constitution that permits military action only for defensive purposes, and so Abe emphasized that Japan has no plan to acquire such powerful weapons and would never launch a pre-emptive strike against any country.
However, Abe pointed out that North Korea could attack Japan with Sarin gas:
"There is a possibility that North Korea has the ability to hit (Japan) with a ballistic missile carrying sarin in its warhead."
Abe pointed to the Syria's sarin gas attack last week, where "nearly 100 innocent people, including children and babies, were victimized."
Just as Japan was the target of a nuclear weapon, Japan has also been the object of a sarin gas attack. Members of a Japanese doomsday cult killed 12 people and made thousands ill in 1995 in simultaneous attacks with sarin nerve gas on five Tokyo rush-hour subway trains.
Concerns have been growing about North Korea’s chemical weapons capabilities since Kim Jong-un's estranged half brother, Kim Jong-nam, was killed with VX nerve agent in Malaysia in February.
According to Yoshihide Suga, Abe’s top aide, "North Korea is thought to maintain multiple facilities that are capable of producing chemical weapons and already hold a sizable amount of chemical weapons."
The South Korean Defense Ministry has estimated that Pyongyang, which reportedly started producing chemical weapons in the 1980s, now owns 2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, including the lethal nerve agents sarin and VX. Japan Times and Reuters
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In 1961, China and North Korea signed a mutual defense treaty that specifies that if one of the parties comes under armed attack, the other should render immediate assistance, including military support.
It's this umbrella of protection that has allowed North Korea to make increasingly provocative acts, knowing that China is required by treaty to protect it. In 2010, North Korea launched a missile attack on the South Korean warship Cheonan, killing 46 people, and then North Korea shelled South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South Koreans. These were both clearly acts of war, but China staunchly defended North Korea, and South Korea was unable to retaliate.
However, it's been clear that China has been running out of patience with North Korea's renegade leader Kim Jong-un, who has been conducting nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests that are violations of international law and are strongly opposed by China. So analysts are wondering under what circumstances China would invade North Korea, either to defend it against South Korea and the US, or to take control of North Korea for its own purposes.
An analysis by the Hong Kong based South China Morning Post suggests that China is no longer obliged to defend North Korea from military attack under the 1961 treaty, since North Korea has repeatedly violated the treaty.
The treaty requires both nations to safeguard peace and security, and for China, North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons in violation of the United Nations treaty on non-proliferation could amount to a breach of their pact, leaving Beijing with no obligation to lend a hand.
According to Li Jie, a retired Chinese naval colonel:
"It’s hard to say how China would assist North Korea militarily in case of war, since North Korea is developing nuclear weapons, an act that might have already breached the treaty between the two nations."
A different analysis in Chinese state sponsored Global Times acknowledges that North Korea's development of nuclear weapons is intolerable to the United States, and notes that Trump has warned that if China doesn't take care of North Korea's nuclear weapons, then the US will.
According to the analysis, China would be willing to impose even harsher sanctions on North Korea, including the devastating sanction of ending oil imports, if China continues its illegal testing:
"If Pyongyang conducts its sixth nuclear test in the near future, the possibility of US military action against it will be higher than ever. Not only is Washington brimming with confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria, but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honors his promises.Now the Trump team seems to have decided to solve the North Korean nuclear crisis. As the discussion runs deeper, a situation of no-solution will not be accepted.
A new nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile test, if conducted by Pyongyang at this time, will be a slap in the face of the US government and will intensify the confrontation between North Korea and the US.
Presumably Beijing will react strongly to Pyongyang's new nuclear actions. China will not remain indifferent to Pyongyang's aggravating violation of the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution.
More and more Chinese support the view that the government should enhance sanctions over Pyongyang's nuclear activities. If the North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese society will be willing to see the UNSC adopt severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North. Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program is intended for securing the regime, however, it is reaching a tipping point. Pyongyang hopes its gamble will work, but all signs point to the opposite direction.
The US is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting further nuclear tests. It doesn't plan to co-exist with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang."
A third analysis was performed by KGS Nightwatch by examining some Chinese government and military newsletters that have addressed North Korea's nuclear weapons developments in recent days. This analysis addresses a different question: Under what circumstances would China intervene militarily in North Korea. There are four tripwires listed in the analysis:
South Korea's media reported earlier this week that the Chinese army has deployed about 150,000 troops in two groups to northeastern China near the Yalu River, "to prepare for unforeseen circumstances," in view of the arrival of the Carl Vinson strike force.
However, China has denied deploying these troops.
There's a surreal quality of fantasy about these reports of Chinese military actions. China is planning this or that military action with no fear of losses or of international retribution, as if the Chinese were invincible. And whenever I read about China's military plans about anything, I get the feeling of invincibility, as if they're saying, "All we want is peace and stability, so just do as we command you to do and there will always be peace and stability; and if you don't, then we'll just kill you, and we'll get peace and stability that way."
So let's make it clear. Any of the military actions discussed in this article, even a "small" military action, will spiral into something bigger in this generational Crisis era, and will spiral further into a world war within weeks or at most a few months. Nobody is invicible here, and China would be worse off than many, because it would be fighting both a civil war and an external war. I've estimated that a world war will kill 3-4 billion people from nuclear weapons, ground war, disease and starvation, leaving 3-4 billion traumatized survivors behind to hold peace conferences and rebuild the world. South China Monring Post (Hong Kong) and Global Times (Beijing) and KGS Nightwatch and Chosun (South Korea) (Trans) and Global Times (Beijing)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Apr-2017)
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Ahmadinejad waits for the appearance of the Mahdi
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Iran's colorful former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had already served two consecutive terms, from 2005-2013, on Wednesday astonished people both inside and outside of Iran by filling out and submitting registration forms for the May 19 presidential election.
Ahmadinejad reversed an earlier decision not to run. In September of last year, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said he would not find it advisable for Ahmadinejad to seek a comeback to politics "both for his own and the country’s good." At the time, Ahmadinejad said that he would not run, but now he's changed his mind.
After filling out the registration forms on Wednesday, he made a "V for Victory" sign and said, "The Leader advised me not to participate in the elections, and I accepted. His advice, however, shouldn’t be taken to mean that I’m banned."
There are three major categories of Iranian politicians, with Ahmadinejad among the most hardline extreme, the "principlists," who insist on adhering to the extreme "principles" of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution. They are mostly in the old geezer generation of survivors of the Revolution. They impose strict social laws, such as requiring headscarves, forbidding unrelated male-female couples in public, no street music in public, and so forth.
Iran's current president, Hassan Rouhani, is in the middle category called the "moderates" or "pragmatists," who are often as hardline as the principlists, but who are in favor of gradual reforms. (The "reformists" are in the younger generations, and favor immediate reforms.)
So it would seem that the major campaign battle will be the principlist Ahmadinejad and the moderate Rouhani. But the Supreme Leader, who is the principlist-in-chief, does not like Ahmadinejad, and has put forth his own principlist candidate, Ebrahim Raisi. And since Khamenei controls the Guardian Council, which has the final say on who's allowed to run, it's expected that Khamenei will see to it that Ahmadinejad is disqualified.
But wait! This is actually even more bizarre than it seems so far.
Ahmadinejad has made a statement that he is not really planning to run for president, and has implied that the only reason that he's registering to run is to support his former vice president Hamid Baghaei.
In fact, Ahmadinejad put on a spectacular show on Wednesday. Ahmadinejad walked Baghaei through the registration process, ostensibly with no other purpose. But as soon as Baghaei registered, Ahmadinejad started to leave, but then suddenly turned around, and pulled out his own registration documents in front of a melee of shouting journalists and stunned officials.
So how does this help Ahmadinejad's deputy Baghaei run for office? Because Khamenei would find an excuse to disqualify Baghaei, in order to get his own candidate Raisi to win. But with Ahmadinejad running, Khamenei would have to disqualify both Ahmadinejad and Baghaei, and that would apparently be too politically difficult.
And to top it off, another of Ahmadinejad's close allies, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to vote. So Khamenei would have to disqualify Ahmadinejad and two of Ahmadinejad's allies.
When Ahmadinejad was first elected in 2005, he and Khamenei got along well. But even principlists have policy differences, and by the time of Ahmadinejad's reelection in 2009, Khamenei refused to give Ahmadinejad the perfunctory kiss on the cheek. During Ahmadinejad's second term, Khamenei repeatedly humiliated Ahmadinejad, and Ahmadinejad adopted policies with the partial objective of infuriating Khamenei. There's little doubt that what Ahmadinejad did on Wednesday will be particularly infuriating to Khamenei. Tehran Times and AP
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As mentioned above, a top aide and close of friend of Ahmadinejad, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to run for president.
In 2009 Khamenei accused Mashaei and other Ahmadinejad aides of being sorcerers, of using "supernatural powers," and of being "magicians" and invoking djinns (spirits).
The charges of sorcery are related to the devout belief, held by Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete enlightenment. Ahmadinejad disobeyed Supreme Leader Khamenei in several matters, which is considered to be equivalent to disobeying God. But Ahmadinejad was just paving the way for the return of the Hidden Imam, and was using his claim that the Hidden Imam's return is imminent as a justification for disobeying Khamenei. Thus, the charges of sorcery.
It's possible that the belief in the Mahdi is related to some of Ahmadinejad's conspiracy theories.
Probably the most famous of his conspiracy theories is that the Holocaust never occurred, but was put forth by a conspiracy of Zionists.
On other occasions, he said that Osama bin Laden and George W. Bush were friends, and that the West had engineered HIV aids.
That was far-fetched enough, but even more far-fetched was his claim in 2012 that Western technology was preventing the rain from falling in Iran:
"Today our country is moving towards drought, which is partly unintentional due to industry and partly intentional, as a result of the enemy destroying the clouds moving towards our country and this is a war that Iran is going to overcome.I feel that the world arrogance and colonization, by using their technologies, are affecting the environmental situation in Iran."
In 2007, Ahmadinejad gave a speech at Columbia University in New York, and made this claim: "In Iran we don't have homosexuals like in your country. In Iran we do not have this phenomenon. I do not know who has told you we have it." He drew hysterical laughter.
As I've been writing for many years, Iran is basically a schizophrenic nation. Its principlist top leadership, starting with the supreme leader, are survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, an extremely bloody civil war. Like generational crisis war survivors in any country, these leaders imposed austere rules and institutions designed to prevent another bloody civil war, and this has led them to adopt a harsh anti-Western attitude. But the generations born after the crisis war have no such motivation, and Iran's younger generations are, in fact, reformists and generally pro-Western and have no particular desire to see Israel pushed into the sea.
In the late 1990s, college students in these younger generations started holding pro-Western and pro-American protests, during Iran's generational Awakening era. Khamenei and the Iran hardliners brutally suppressed those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today, those students are in their 30s, and have risen to positions of power, ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies off. They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi Arabia to be an existential threat. This is one of several reasons why I've been saying for years that, in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran will be an ally of the United States, along with Russia and India, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries. Newsweek and Al Monitor (15-Mar)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Apr-17 World View -- Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Apr-2017)
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The Le Touquet treaty, which moves Britain's border into France, will be reconsidered
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Huge fires burned to the ground a Dunkirk migrant camp in northern France, populated by 1,600 refugees who were there in the camp in the hope of reaching Britain, usually by sneaking onto trucks and ferries crossing the English Channel.
The camp had been built by Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), including hundreds of wooden huts. The camp opened in March 2016 as the first camp in France to meet international humanitarian standards, where migrant families could live in relatively dignified conditions in heated wooden cabins. However, conditions deteriorated within a few months as hundreds more migrants arrived at the camp. Tensions were high in the camp because the number of people living there far exceeded the capacity of the camp, which was more like 700.
The population of the camp was originally Iraqi and Kurdish migrants. But when migrant camp known as "The Jungle" in nearby Calais was closed down in October of last year, a large number of the 7,000 migrants that had been housed there moved to the Dunkirk camp, which has been called "the new jungle." Many of these new arrivals were afghans who did not get along with the Iraqis and Kurds, resulting in tensions that sometimes led to violence.
The first fire broke out early Monday evening, following fighting between groups of migrants of different nationalities. Some 600 migrants took part in the fighting. The fights continued late into the night, and several hours later, additional fires burned down almost all of the wooden huts, leaving nothing behind but ashes. According to French officials, multiple fires must have been set on purpose.
The migrants had been evacuated and rehoused in gymnasiums that had been empty and were converted into temporary emergency shelter in the Dunkirk suburb of Grande-Synthe. However, those can only accommodate 900 people. Some migrants say that they'll return to Calais and set up makeshift camps.
Officials are unable to say how long the migrants will stay in the gymnasiums, or what will happen to them next. With the warm weather of summer, a new flood of migrants is expected. RFI and Independent (London) and New Statesman
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The Le Touquet Treaty of 2003 was designed to allow France and Britain each to perform its border checks in the other country, as if there were land borders between the two countries, rather than just a sea border.
Without this treaty, a person traveling by ferry from France to Britain would be allowed to travel, and would only get an immigration check once he arrived in Britain. But under the treaty, Britain can perform immigration checks while the traveler is still in France, and block the person from traveling to Britain.
Many people blame the existence of the refugee camps in Calais and Dunkirk on the Le Touquet Treaty. According to their reasoning, if migrants could simply get on a ferry to Britain, then the refugee camps would be in Dover rather than in Calais or Dunkirk.
When Britain passed the "Brexit referendum" on June 23 of last year, calling for Britain to leave the European Union, some French officials immediately began calling for an end to the Le Touquet treaty.
In the months that followed, French and British reaffirmed their commitment to the treaty. However, that may not continue. In the upcoming French presidential election, all three leading candidates in the French presidential election are promising to withdraw from this treaty. Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London - 30-Aug-2016) and Economist and PDF: Text of 2003 Le Touquet Treaty
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Apr-17 World View -- Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to the ground thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Apr-2017)
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Why is a US carrier group strike force going to the Korean peninsula?
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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India has been forced to delay a second round of elections in Kashmir, scheduled for Wednesday, after the first round of elections in Sunday sparked a large surge on Sunday by separatists.
The large surge in violence left eight people dead and injured more than 100. Two middle schools, designated as polling stations, were burnt down on Sunday night.
Separatists had called for a boycott of the election, and in the city Srinagar were using barbed wire and burnt tires to block the roads, to prevent voters from reaching the polling stations. Hundreds of youth threw stones and petrol bombs at security forces, who wore helmets and carried batons to subdue the protesters. However, the security forces were forced to withdraw, after the boycott was almost total. Government sources counted nearly 200 separate incidents of violence.
Although there have been periods of violence in Indian-controlled Kashmir in the past, the new round of violence is significantly different according to several measures:
The low voter turnout is particularly significant. In previous elections, even when there was some violence, voter turnout was 25-40%, and that was considered to be a sign that, despite the separatist protests, most people supported the government. The low voter turnout is a major change that is being blamed on the Election Commission (EC), which finally was forced to reschedule the second round of elections from Wednesday to May 25, handing a victory to the separatists.
As I wrote in my detailed analysis earlier in the month, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template.
India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
The survivors of a generational crisis war are so traumatized that they spend their lives doing everything possible to keep it from happening again. However, younger generations growing up after the war have no such concerns, and when the generations of survivors retire and die, then a new generational crisis war emerges among the younger generations.
The surging violence in Kashmir is extremely dangerous, and could spread and spiral into something much larger during the hot summer. BBC and New Delhi TV and First Post and India Times
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It's an old saying that Hindus and Muslims can't live together because Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't eat cows. These differences, which seem so odd to the Western mind, raise such powerful emotions in both Muslims and Hindus that they played an important role in both of the previous generational crisis wars, the 1857 Rebellion and the 1947 Partition War.
Now there's a new demand by Hindu nationalists to ban cow slaughter across the country. Cow vigilantism has frequently triggered violence between Hindus and Muslims in India, especially when Muslims kill cows for meat, and preventing Muslims from eating beef appears to a major part of the motivation for the proposed ban on cow slaughter.
However, opponents of the ban say that a ban on cow slaughter would be bad for the cow, and that the end result is that cows would no longer exist except in zoos. For that reason, opponents are demanding that if the proposed ban is passed, then the government must budget money to give to dairy farmers to protect the cow, and must provide an adoption scheme for cattle that are past productive age or male. First Post and Indian Express
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In yesterday's article, I described that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force left Singapore and headed for the Korean peninsula, possibly for some confrontation with North Korea, and I wondered what the objective was. In particular, I wondered how long the strike force was going to remain there.
A couple of readers have provided me with possible explanations. One reader said that the Carl Vinson would have to remain only until the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system could be fully deployed in South Korea:
"But they're waiting for the next test launch of a potentially nuclear tipped missile by the North Korean's insane dictator. Then they'll shoot it out of the sky. A little target practice, shall we say. As they might say in Texas -- "pull!"See, the THAAD is just starting to be installed in South Korea, and obviously that takes some time, so it's not ready yet. ...
[The carrier strike force is] equipped with the Aegis variant of functionality quite similar to THAAD - just sea based. I know a bit about this, since I used to work for the Navy supplier FMC (now BAE Systems), who makes the Rail Gun and the 5-inch/54 caliber (Mk 45) lightweight gun.
And it's a legitimate move to shoot down any such North Korean missile, even if it's just a test. How do we know whether or not it's just a test? Are we supposed to give it 10 minutes and see whether it's trajectory is aimed at LA? Better shoot it down, just in case. ... The carrier group serves as an interim THAAD until the full THAAD is installed and working. That will allow the Seoulians to sleep better at night (you said yourself that they're getting a bit nervous)."
Another reader pointed out that the birthday of the grandfather of the current leader is fast approaching, and the leader might be planning a major provocation on that date:
"15 April is Kim Il-Sung's birthday, and is a holiday in NK called "Day of the Sun" ("Il-Sung" in Korean means "become the Sun.") The North Koreans have a history of staging provocations (missile and nuclear tests) so it's likely the Vinson battle group will be on hand just in case Kim Jong-Un gets stroppy."
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Apr-17 World View -- India forced to delay Kashmir elections after large surge in violence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Apr-2017)
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Egypt in 3-month state of emergency after Coptic church bombings
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Coordinated bombing attacks on two different Coptic Orthodox Christian churches in two different cities in Egypt killed at least 45 people and injured over 100. Both churches were crowded with worshippers at the Palm Sunday service.
Palm Sunday falls each year one week before Easter, which this year occurs on April 16 for both Western and Orthodox Christians. Palm Sunday is one of the holiest days in the Christian calendar, marking the triumphal entry of Jesus Christ into Jerusalem.
The Sinai terror group called Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) took credit for the both bombings. The group changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance in 2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
ABM has taken credit for the December 11, 2016, bombing of the St Peter and St Paul chapel adjoining Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral in Cairo, killing 29, and promised to attack more Christian targets. Coptic Christians make up about 10% of Egypt's population.
Egypt’s President Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi declared a state of emergency in Egypt for three months. The measure allows authorities to make arrests without warrants and search people's homes. Human rights organizations have expressed concern that the state of emergency will permit al-Sisi to take on additional dictatorial powers, and will abuse those powers. The dictator Hosni Mubarak imposed a similar state of emergency for 20 years, before being ousted in 2011 by the "Arab Spring." Al Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and Al Jazeera
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The US Pacific Command announced on Saturday that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force has left Singapore and is headed for the Korean peninsula. It was diverted from previous plans for carrier exercises and port visits in Australia.
This action takes on special significance because it appears to be similar to the action taken last week in the Mediterranean Sea just before the US Navy launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles to attack targets in Syria, following the Syrian regime's use of Sarin gas, a forbidden WMD (weapon of mass destruction).
North Korea has been testing ballistic missile systems and nuclear weapons, a WMD forbidden to North Korea by UN Security Council resolutions. Experts warn that North Korea is getting closer to deploying a nuclear-tipped rocket capable of reaching the United States mainland, as well as Japan, South Korea, Australia and China. Thus there is speculation, completely unconfirmed, that President Donald Trump might order a missile strike on North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons development facilities, in order to at least delay further development. According to one military analyst:
"It's a well-timed move. We obviously don't have the ability to strike their nuclear facilities, they are buried deep underground, but we can go after the missiles themselves while they are fueling. It's a signal to the North Koreans that we will, for the time being, have the ability to attack those facilities."
The Carl Vinson Strike Group has massive striking power and has the capability to intercept ballistic missiles. The group includes the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), embarked Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 2, Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112), and Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain (CG 57).
President Trump has been pressuring China to try to force North Korea to give up its nuclear and ballistic missile development program, and has recently said that "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will."
When Trump met last week with China's president Xi Jinping, North Korea was a major topic of discussion between the two leaders, but reports indicate that that no agreement was reached on how to end the threat from North Korea.
Instead, there was nothing but posturing and impossible demands. Trump demands that China prevent North Korea's further missile and nuclear development. China has agreed to implement the sanctions demanded by the UN Security Council, and most recently says that it has stopped importing coal from North Korea. However, there are some reports that North Korea is looking for other markets in which to sell its coal, and Russia may be one of them. At any rate, there really is nothing realistic that China can do, short of military action, to stop North Korea's missile and nuclear development.
China demands that the US agree to a "dual suspension" on the Korean peninsula, cancelling its joint military drills with South Korea in return for a moratorium on North Korean testing, and then promising to negotiate a peace treaty with North Korea. The US has repeatedly been duped by North Korea when entering such agreements, and there is no chance that Trump will allow the US to be duped again. So China's demands are also completely unrealistic.
So this brings us to the obvious question: Why is the Carl Vinson strike group heading for the Korean peninsula, and what has it been ordered to do when it gets there? Is it just going to sit there and wait for something to happen, and leave in a few weeks having accomplished nothing, allowing North Korea to continue developing nuclear-tipped rockets capable of hitting the US mainland? Or is some military action planned, with the intention of fulfilling Trump's promise, "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will"?
One way or another, we'll probably have an answer within a few days. Navy Times and News Corp (Australia) and BBC and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
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The US has begun deployment in South Korea of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) an advanced anti-missile system that can blast incoming missiles out of the sky.
The stated purpose of the deployment would be to protect South Korea from a North Korean ballistic missile attack. However, China has expressed increasing fury because the system has advanced radar capabilities that would provide early warning for a Chinese missile attack on the United States.
China's fury has taken the form of economic sanctions. China has banned tour groups from visiting China, has removed popular South Korean TV dramas from the internet, and has forced the closure of 75 South Korean Lotte stores in China, resulting in $179 million in losses.
A web site reader living in Seoul has written to me to describe the devastating impact of the actions by China and North Korea:
"China's economic boycott of Korea over THAAD has hit the country like a ton bricks. I went to the flagship Lotte department store today, and it was practically empty. I have friends who own their own businesses, and they tell me they are facing bankruptcy because of the loss of Chinese customers. The thing is, Koreans, by and large, hate the Chinese. This embargo is only heightening the hatred. I think this embargo has finally woken people up to the fact that China is an existential threat to Korea. ...Tonight, for the first time in my life, Koreans told me they were afraid that war was imminent. I have lived in Asia (on and off) since the 1970s, and I have never heard a Korean say anything like that. Tonight, someone in my office told me that she was scheduled to to visit America in May, but that she was afraid a war would break out before she had a chance to leave. Leaving the office tonight, a co-worker told me she was scared. I was stunned. This can't bode well.
If this is the end, oh well. I just hope I die instantly. I'm worried I won't be killed in the first artillery barrage. As densely packed as Seoul is, the death toll, the carnage, will be beyond belief. ...
I can't believe how much the mood here has flipped. The word 'changed' would be inappropriate. Things are different now. I feel sick."
I guess we can all hope that if we have to die that we die instantly.
This is an appropriate time to repeat what I've written many times in the past. A lot of people believe some variation of "X and Y won't go to war, because it's bad for business." Actually, the opposite is true, as we're seeing in the case of Lotte. If two countries have a business relationship, then the business relationship won't prevent war, but instead will turn into one more weapon of war. CBS News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Apr-17 World View -- US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Apr-2017)
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Shock and euphoria follow the missile strike on Syria
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The events of the past week were not only a major humiliation to Russia, but will also have to trigger a major strategic change in Russia's foreign policy.
The unexpected US cruise missile strike in response to the horrific Sarin gas attack by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, killing up to 100 people, left Russia scrambling to take face-saving measures. So Russia canceled its "deconfliction agreement" with US designed to prevent accidental clashes between the two air forces in Syria, though this agreement will almost certainly be restored within weeks. War criminal al-Assad did his part by ordering new air strikes on the same town, Khan Sheikhoun, but this with conventional weapons. However, to bring the point home, al-Assad committed a new war crime when his missiles struck a hospital where people are recovering from al-Assad's Sarin gas attack. Russia, Syria and Iran may take further retaliatory moves.
However, the big picture is that this week's events will require a strategic change in Russia's policies.
As I reported in April, 2011, Russia at that time adopted a policy of using the United Nations Security Council to cripple Nato and US foreign policy, a strategy that has been very successful for them for six years.
Early in 2011, Russia had abstained on the UNSC resolution authorizing a "humanitarian" military action in Libya. As the Libyan intervention unfolded, Russia viewed the increasingly complex situation as "mission creep," and regretted not vetoing the resolution.
After that, Russia demanded that Nato and the US strictly limit their activities, and Russia would back up this demand by vetoing any attempt to go further than Russia desired. This would allow Russia to effectively control many activities of Nato and the US, since only activities approved by the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever be permitted.
This set up a "double standard," because Russia would do what it wanted, without seeking approval from the UNSC. Russia invaded Georgia and took control of two provinces, without asking the UNSC. Russia invaded East Ukraine and took control of two provinces, without asking the UNSC. Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it, without asking the UNSC. At the same time, any military action by the West would have to be approved by the UNSC.
Now President Trump has done the same thing, ordering a military strike without asking the UNSC. This act nullifies the policies adopted by Russia in 2011, and requires a change in direction, though the nature of that change remains to be seen. AP and CNBC and CNN
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Russia now has to throw out that "double standard" strategy, because the new US administration is willing to do what Russia has been doing all along-- take military action when considered necessary, without asking permission from the UN Security Council (nor, by the way, from the US Congress).
President Donald Trump seems willing to reinstate the "Truman Doctrine" that had been repudiated by President Obama. President Harry Truman announced the Truman Doctrine in 1947, essentially making America the "policeman of the world." Truman's justification is that it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John Kennedy's "ask not" speech, and every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman.
The concept of America being the "world's policeman" was very controversial in 1947 and it's very controversial today. And yet, we've seen what's happened in the last eight years, when the world had no policeman.
There are news reports of a power struggle in the White House, and that power struggle can be interpreted as a disagreement over reinstating the Truman Doctrine. Reportedly, Steve Bannon opposes military actions like the one this week in Syria, while Jared Kushner favors it. The outcome of this power struggle, which goes to the heart of the Truman Doctrine concepts, could have a defining effect on American foreign policy, as well as on Russia's foreign policy. Guardian (London)
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America's missile strike in Syria has received widespread praise as a valid response to Bashar al-Assad's war crimes, but not with President Trump's base.
I saw this myself in the stream of comments to the Breitbart version of my April 6 article "President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians."
Most of the comments appeared from people among Trump's strongest supporters, but they were shocked by this article, because they believed that Trump would never order a military intervention in the Mideast, something that many of them oppose. A lot of anger was directed at me, accusing me of "fake news," and accusing me of being a "Libtard" and trying to mislead people.
But all that changed on Thursday evening around 10 PM ET, when reports of the military action started coming out, proving that the article was completely accurate. At that point, the anger that many of the commenters had directed at me began to be directed at President Trump.
Some of the comments were completely delusional, such as describing the Sarin gas attack as a "false flag" operation, sometimes going so far as to accuse Trump of ordering the Sarin attack himself in order to have an excuse to bomb Syria. Probably the angriest comments were some variation of the delusional "false flag" claim.
At the other end of the spectrum were comments that were very thoughtful. Many people posted variations of "I voted for Trump, but I didn't vote for this." There were some detailed analyses of why we should never go into the Mideast, saying that we've tried in the past and never accomplished anything, and one person saying that we should let them kill each other so that they won't try to kill us.
However, in the mainstream media, in the US, Europe and the Mideast, comments by world leaders have been extremely supportive, almost verging on euphoria that the US is showing leadership once more.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both the controversy and the euphoria are to be expected at a military attack that could begin an all-out war. Any military attack is going to be controversial, but the population can also easily become heavily invested and become euphoric.
Here's how historian Wolfgang Schivelbusch describes how the euphoria at the beginning of a war is itself highly delusional in his 2001 book, The Culture of Defeat: On National Trauma, Mourning, and Recovery:
"The passions excited in the national psyche by the onset of war show how deeply invested the masses now were in its potential outcome. Propaganda had reinforced their conviction that "everything was at stake," and the threat of death and defeat functioned like a tightly coiled spring, further heightening the tension. The almost festive jubilation that accompanied the declarations of war in Charleston in 1861 [American Civil War], Paris in 1870 [Franco-Prussian war], and the capitals of the major European powers in 1914 [World War I] were anticipatory celebrations of victory -- since nations are as incapable of imagining their own defeat as individuals are of conceiving their own death. The new desire to humiliate the enemy, noted by Burckhardt, was merely a reaction to the unprecedented posturing in which nations now engaged when declaring war.The deployment of armies on the battlefield is the classic manifestation of collective self-confidence. If both sides are not convinced of their military superiority, there will be no confrontation; rather, those who lack confidence will simply flee the field. Accordingly, the battle is decided the moment the confidence of one side fails. The will to fight ("morale") evaporates, the military formation collapses, and the army seeks salvation in flight or, if it is lucky, in organized retreat. The Greek term for this point in space (on the battlefield) and time (the course of the battle) was trope. The victors demarcated the spot with the weapons of the vanquished and later with monuments, yielding the term tropaion, from which we get our word trophy." (p. 6-7)
The euphoria goes on until something goes wrong, usually some kind of military disaster, such as the Battle of Bull Run in 1861 or the Bataan Death March in 1941.
The panicked reaction can be much greater when a military disaster occurs. In his 1832 book, On War, General Carl von Clausewitz describes what happens:
"The effect of defeat outside the army -- on the people and on the government -- is a sudden collapse of the wildest expectations, and total destruction of self-confidence. The destruction of these feelings creates a vacuum, and that vacuum gets filled by a fear that grows corrosively, leading to total paralysis. It's a blow to the whole nervous system of the losing side, as if caused by an electric charge. This effect may appear to a greater or lesser degree, but it's never completely missing. Then, instead of rushing to repair the misfortune with a spirit of determination, everyone fears that his efforts will be futile; or he does nothing, leaving everything to Fate."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the events that cause this "sudden collapse" and "total destruction" of self-confidence are called "regeneracy events," because they regenerate civic unity for the first time since the end of the preceding crisis war.
You don't need any particular methodology to understand that the whole world has become increasingly unstable in the last ten years. Because the political atmosphere is already extremely vitriolic and is likely to worsen further, it's worth repeating what I've written many times: Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. This is coming with 100% certainty, irrespective of who is president. Furthermore, the president can neither cause nor prevent this outcome. Maybe Trump's missile attack will speed up this war, or maybe it will delay it. It could go either way. If Hillary Clinton had won, she might have made the same missile attack for the same reasons that Trump did. It's impossible to tell. The only thing that we can be sure of is that we have no way of knowing what the scenario will be, only that a regional war will be the result, in this generational Crisis era. CNN and philly.com
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Apr-17 World View -- Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Apr-2017)
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Taiwan and Japan try to settle their disputes peacefully
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Japan's government has announced plans to repopulate a cluster of 148 small, rocky islands in the hope of deterring China from unilaterally declaring that they're China's sovereign territory, as it has done illegally in the South China Sea.
Among these are the Senkaku Islands, which have been the focus military near-confrontations in the past few years. The population of the remote islands has declined by 51.3% since 1955, and restoring even small population on 71 of the outlying islands could deter China. There are around 6,800 islands in the archipelago, and
The announcement calls for the construction of civic facilities, the purchasing of land, the improvement of ports and stopping foreign vessels from illegally visiting the islands.
The greatest focus has been on the Senkaku Islands, – a chain of five uninhabited islets and three barren rocks in the East China Sea – were uninhabited until 1895 when Japan laid claim to them. In the ensuing decades, the Japanese populated the chain and even set up a fish-processing plant on one of the islands. The United States took control of the islands during the occupation of Japan following World War II, and handed them back in 1972. At that time, China claimed the islands, citing ancient texts and maps, and claiming that Japan's actions in 1895 were illegal.
In early February, three Chinese warships sailed into the water near the Senkaku Islands, risking a military confrontation and stoking tensions between the two countries.
Even riskier is the increased intrusion into Japanese airspace of Chinese military aircraft, usually other fighter jets, sometimes a bomber or reconnaissance plane. The number of such intrusions is now averaging two per day since April of last year, nearly twice as many as in the prior 12 months. Japan responds to each such intrusion by scrambling up to four F-15 fighter jets to intercept the Chinese military aircraft.
Analysts are concerned that the situation in the East China Sea is becoming more and more volatile, more so than even in the South China Sea, where China has illegally built artificial islands nad military bases, and that a war in the East China Sea could break out at any time.
The populations of Japan and China have become highly nationalistic over their respective claims to these islands, in this generational Crisis era. The frequency of these intrusions by both warships and warplanes and the resulting intercepts raise the possibility of an accident or miscalculation that could spiral into something bigger. Japan Times and CNBC and Fox News and American Interest
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Last week, a report from a nationalist Japanese media source accused Taiwan to sending a record high number of scientific research vessels to "intrude" into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by Taiwan as well as by China and Japan. The report suggested that Taiwan's "unauthorized activities" included fishing in addition to illegal maritime research.
If this kind of dispute had arisen between China and Japan, there might have been a military confrontation by now. But Taiwan and Japan, who presumably want to cooperate because of their common enemy (China), have a history of settling these kinds of disputes peacefully in recent years.
In April 2013, Taiwan and Japan signed a fisheries agreement to address a decades-long dispute over fishing in contested waters in the East China Sea. On October 31 of last year, the two sides agreed to meet at least once a year and to establish two working groups — one on fishery cooperation and another regarding cooperation in scientific research. China Post (Taiwan) and Japan Times and The Diplomat
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Apr-17 World View -- Japan to repopulate 148 remote islands, as confrontation with China looms thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Apr-2017)
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President Trump orders missile strikes on Bashar al-Assad's Syria
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As I'm writing this on Thursday evening, American ships in the eastern Mediterranean Sea have launched dozens of cruise missiles at the Shayrat Airbase in Syria. This airbase was chosen because it's believed that Monday's nerve gas attack was launched from this airbase. The attack appears to the following the outline that I described in yesterday's article, though it apparently caught some analysts by surprise that the military action occurred so quickly after the nerve gas attack. It's not expected that this will be followed by a long series of further military actions. Washington Post
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Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte on Thursday ordered the army to deploy troops to "nine or 10" unoccupied islands and reefs in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea that are owned or claimed by the Philippines. According to his televised announcement
"The unoccupied, which our ours, let’s live on it. It looks like everybody is making a grab for the islands there, so we better live on those that are still vacant.At least, let us get what is ours now and make a strong point there that it is ours.
“We try to be friends with everybody, but we have to maintain our jurisdiction, at least [in] the areas that we control I have ordered the armed forces to occupy all these islands and put up the Philippine flag to occupy all these. ...
This coming Independence Day [June 12], I may go to Pagasa to raise the flag. We want to make a strong point that that is ours."
Duterte also said "bunkers or houses and provisions for habitation" were to be built. Analysts are pointing out that this cannot be accomplished, because the islands and reefs are too small. For that reason, some analysts are speculating Duterte would like to initiate reclamation activities to create artificial islands, as the Chinese have been doing, although that kind of reclamation is probably too expensive for the Philippines budget.
China has not yet commented on Duterte's order, but is certain to express the usual furious outrage. China has claimed the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory, and has built artificial islands and military bases. However, these claims and activities that were declared illegal in a harsh ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague, in a case brought by the Philippines. Daily Inquirer (Manila) and Reuters and Washington Post
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Benham Rise is not in the South China Sea, but is east of the Philippines, and part of the country's continental shelf. According to Philippines' defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana:
"The navy will henceforth regularly patrol Benham Rise partly due to past Chinese activities there but more importantly, because it is part of our continental shelf and awarded to us by the United Nations."
In 2012, the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf confirmed that Benham Rise is part of the Philippines' continental shelf. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the continental shelf comprises the seabed and subsoil of the submarine areas 200 nautical miles (NM), or 370 kilometers, from a state's baselines.
According to Philippines media, China has been surreptitiously exploring Benham Rise for several months, breaking international and Philippine laws in scouring the seabed and waters without permission. China claimed that vessels were there for "innocent passage," but Chinese activities have turned out to have two objectives: First, to determine possible submarine hiding areas for future submarine warfare, and second, to determine through sound reflection and refraction possible oil and gas.
China's activities in Benham Rise have incited a public furor, and may be the reason for Duterte's orders to the army to occupy South China Sea islands. Philippine Star and The Rappler (Philippines)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Apr-17 World View -- Philippines president Duterte orders military to occupy South China Sea islands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Apr-2017)
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John McCain and Lindsey Graham advocate cruise missiles and safe areas
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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President Donald Trump on Wednesday made it clear that he's planning some sort of action against Syria. Although he did not specify what kind of action, saying that he didn't want to telegraph his plans, he did imply that military action is planned.
The change of mind was triggered by a horrific chemical nerve gas attack on Syrian civilians on Monday, indiscriminately killing dozens of people. The pictures of children being killed apparently particularly affected Trump. The nerve gas was delivered in bombs warplanes, which could only have been warplanes from the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. After the nerve gas attack, another missile attack struck the hospital where nerve gas attacks had been taken, effectively putting the hospital out of service. There was clearly an intent to kill as many people as possible, including women and children.
Syrian state media denied that that Syria was responsible:
"The government of the Syrian Arab republic categorically denies the allegations and false accusations about the use of poisonous, chemical weapons by the Syrian Arab army in Khan Sheikhoun region against Syrian civilians who are besieged by the armed terrorist groups as human shields there, Syria also affirms that the Syrian army doesn’t possess any kind of chemical weapons and it has not used them and it won’t use them in the future."
The above statement contains known lies. Syria has provably used Sarin gas and chlorine gas in bombs in the past. No part of the above statement is credible, in view of the evidence. ARA News (Syria) and SANA (Damascus)
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At a news conference on Tuesday, Trump commented on Monday's nerve gas attack in Syria, explaining why he changed his mind:
"Yesterday, a chemical attack -- a chemical attack that was so horrific, in Syria, against innocent people, including women, small children, and even beautiful little babies. Their deaths was an affront to humanity. These heinous actions by the Assad regime cannot be tolerate. ...Well, I think the Obama administration had a great opportunity to solve this crisis a long time ago when he said the red line in the sand. And when he didn’t cross that line after making the threat, I think that set us back a long ways, not only in Syria, but in many other parts of the world, because it was a blank threat. I think it was something that was not one of our better days as a country. ...
I now have responsibility, and I will have that responsibility and carry it very proudly, I will tell you that. It is now my responsibility. It was a great opportunity missed. ...
It crossed a lot of lines for me. When you kill innocent children, innocent babies -- babies, little babies -- with a chemical gas that is so lethal -- people were shocked to hear what gas it was -- that crosses many, many lines, beyond a red line. Many, many lines."
In 2013, Bashar al-Assad launched a Sarin gas attack against civilians, after President Barack Obama has said that doing so would "cross a red line." At that time, Trump tweeted the following:
"AGAIN, TO OUR VERY FOOLISH LEADER, DO NOT ATTACK SYRIA - IF YOU DO MANY VERY BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN & FROM THAT FIGHT THE U.S. GETS NOTHING!"
However, Trump has now reversed those sentiments, and is blaming Obama for not intervening in 2013. However, he's not calling it "a flip-flop," instead ascribing it to flexibility:
"I like to think of myself as a very flexible person. I don’t have to have one specific way, and if the world changes, I go the same way, I don’t change. Well, I do change and I am flexible, and I’m proud of that flexibility. And I will tell you, that attack on children yesterday had a big impact on me -- big impact. That was a horrible, horrible thing. And I’ve been watching it and seeing it, and it doesn’t get any worse than that.And I have that flexibility, and it’s very, very possible -- and I will tell you, it’s already happened that my attitude toward Syria and Assad has changed very much. And if you look back over the last few weeks, there were other attacks using gas. You’re now talking about a whole different level."
He says that he will not reveal his plans, but implies that the plans are military (as opposed to, say, sanctions):
"Well, one of the things I think you’ve noticed about me is, militarily, I don’t like to say where I’m going and what I doing. And I watched past administrations say, we will attack at such and such a day at such and such an hour. ...I watched Mosul, where the past administration was saying, we will be attacking in four months. And I said, why are they doing that? Then a month goes by, and they say, we will be attacking in three months, and then two months, and then we will be attacking next week. And I’m saying, why are they doing that? And as you know, Mosul turned out to be a much harder fight than anyone thought, and a lot of people have been lost in that fight. I’m not saying I’m doing anything one way or the other, but I’m certainly not going to be telling you, as much as I respect you, John."
In the past, I've criticized President Obama for flip-flopping on his "red line" statement. My point was not that military action should have been pursued. My point was that Obama should never have made a threat that he wasn't going to act upon, since flip-flopping only emboldened Bashar al-Assad to commit worse atrocities.
Now Senator Marco Rubio is making a similar criticism of President Trump. He's referring to recent statements by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that the Trump administration no longer plans to demand that Bashar al-Assad step down.
According to Rubio:
"In this case now, we have very limited options and look, it's concerning that the Secretary of State, 72 hours ago or a week ago, last Friday, said that the future's up to the people in Syria on what happens with Assad. In essence almost nodding to the idea that Assad was gonna get to stay in some capacity.I don't think it's a coincidence that a few days later we see this."
Rubio's claim is quite plausible.
One might ask what al-Assad's motivation was for ordering Monday's horrific nerve gas attack. It was so outrageous, and so likely to backfire politically, that it really makes no sense.
Every time I write that Bashar al-Assad is psychopathic monster and war criminal committing genocide against Sunni Muslims in Syria, I get criticized by al-Assad acolytes and paid Russian trolls. But I don't think that there's any doubt about this. Bashar al-Assad is the worst war criminal so far this century, with a psychopathic desire to exterminate all Sunni civilians. Nothing else can explain this insane action.
Al-Assad has never agreed to the peace that was agreed a few months ago in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Iran, Russia and Turkey. In fact, he's never shown any interest in participating in any peace process. I've pointed out many times, that al-Assad clearly has no intention of doing anything but torturing, slaughtering, and exterminating as many Sunni civilians as possible.
Al-Assad has apparently been controlling his urges for political reasons for the last few months. Trump's previous reluctance for military action in Syria, reaffirmed by Tillerson's claims that the US would no longer demand that al-Assad step down have given a free ticket to al-Assad to do anything he wanted, and like an alcoholic who suddenly is told he can start drinking again, al-Assad suddently felt freed to do whatever he wanted. I believe that that's what Rubio meant, and I agree with it. International Business Times
Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham were interviewed on Fox News on Wednesday evening. Although they were interviewed separately, they made exactly the same points:
Here are the remarks of John McCain (my transcription):
"Those are horrible, and I spoke to the president this morning. He's angry as he well should be , and he's consulting with his military leadership, as well as his Secretary of State, and I have some optimism that he will take some concrete action here.He is obviously, as we all are, appalled.
Could I make two points. One, this is a legacy of Barack Obama. The last time this happened, Barack Obama said they crossed a red line, called me and Lindsey Graham down to the White House, and did NOTHING. You know, one thing worse than doing nothing is saying you're going to do something as the most powerful leader on earth, and doing nothing.
So this is a legacy of Barack Obama, and it's been going on for the intervening four years. So what we need to do, we need to stop Bashar Assad's planes from flying. And we can do that easily. Just say don't fly, or you're gonna get shot down, and if you start operating out of the six bases that they have, we're going to crater your runways with cruise missiles and other weapons. 41:54
But you can't fly because we're not gonna let you drop nerve gas. We're not gonna let you drop chlorine. We're not gonna let you drop barrel bombs.
You know what barrel bombs are? They're large cylindical things filled with shrapnel. And they explode about 20 feet above the ground, and they indiscriminately kill people.
He's got to be stopped from flying, and we can stop him easily, using our cruise missiles and other capabilities. and we'll tell the Russians, it's your guy, you can join us in stopping him from flying and committing these war crimes.
Then I would have safe zones, and there's a lot of other things, but the first thing we gotta do is stop his ability to slaughter people."
Here are the remarks of Lindsey Graham (my transcription):
QUESTION: "What should President Trump do to Syria?"GRAHAM: Destroy his air power and create a safe zone in Syria where this never happens again."
QUESTION: "We'd have to bomb their airfields, right? There are Russian planes there."
GRAHAM: "They should move them.
Then I would make sure that the people in Idlib would never be bombed again by Assad. There would be safe havens where people could go back to Syria from Europe and the United States. Talk won't do it. This is a time for Pres Trump to show the world he's not President Obama.
This is a horrible event out of which could come an opportunity to reset the Mideast, to establish his presidency as something different than Obama, to send a dictator to everyone in the world there's a new sheriff in town. And if he would actually hold Assad accountable and protect the innocent people of Syria, it would help us in Iran and North Korea and everywhere else."
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that Iran and the West will be allies in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, and that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other.
These predictions will come true with absolute certainty, and it would have made no difference whether Trump or Hillary Clinton had been elected president. The events of the last two days are a major step forward along that trend line.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Apr-2017)
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Organization of American States (OAS) approves scathing condemnation of Venezuela
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A march mon Monday by members of Venezuela's National Assembly who were opposed to president Nicolás Maduro's Socialist government was met by men with sticks and rocks by Socialist supporters.
On Tuesday, Venezuelan police attacked protesters with tear gas, water cannons and pepper spray. The clashes began after the authorities closed subway stations, set up checkpoints and cordoned off a square where opponents had planned their latest protest against the Socialist government and a crippling economic crisis.
The protests were triggered by a decision last week by the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court to effectively dissolve the National Assembly and take over its legislative powers, effectively making Maduro a dictator.
Maduro is in control of the presidency, the army, the media, and the courts. The National Assembly was the only body that expressed any opposition to Maduro. Maduro has repeatedly used the courts to reverse any legislative decisions that he didn't like, but this time he was going to eliminate the legislative branch completely.
Maduro has been jailing bakers because there's a bread shortage, and has been jailing factory workers because there's shortage of milk, rice, flour, ketchup, diapers, and toilet paper. It seemed that Maduro could get away with anything. So it was to everyone's surprise that Maduro's latest move generated worldwide outrage, even from some normally compliant mainstream media sources. Even Maduro's attorney general Luisa Ortega Diaz was opposed to the latest move.
The international opposition caused Venezuela's Supreme Court to reverse the decision on Saturday, but the crisis has continued because it triggered violence in the streets. There were thousands of people on both sides, pro- and anti-Maduro, in a situation where anger is increasing between the "haves" supporting Maduro and the "have-nots" opposed to Maduro. Reuters and Washington Post and Venezuelanalysis
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The Organization of American States (OAS) approved on Monday overwhelmingly approved a resolution demanding that Venezuela restore full constitutional authority to the National Assembly.
However, that decision came at the end of two days of extraordinary brinksmanship.
On April 1, Bolivia assumed the rotating Pro Tempore presidency of the OAS. A meeting had been previously scheduled to discuss the Venezuela situation, but Bolivia is one of the two closest allies to Venezuela's Socialist government, the other one being Ecuador. So the first action taken by the Bolivian representative was to cancel the meeting.
This infuriated other OAS members, led by Costa Rica and Mexico, so they conducted what is being called an "institutional coup," and went ahead with the cancelled meeting. Bolivia protested the move and subsequently walked out of the meeting, joined by Venezuela, Nicaragua and Ecuador.
There were 21 remaining countries at the meeting, and 17 nations approved the resolution, with four abstentions: Dominican Republic, Bahamas, Belize and El Salvador.
According to the text of the resolution:
"EXPRESSING our grave concern regarding the unconstitutional alteration of the democratic order in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and our continuous support for dialogue and negotiation to lead to a peaceful restoration of democratic order,[The OAS] DECLARES that: The decisions of the Supreme Court of Venezuela to suspend the powers of the National Assembly and to arrogate them to itself are inconsistent with democratic practice and constitute an alteration of the constitutional order of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Notwithstanding the recent revision of some elements of these decisions, it is essential that the Government of Venezuela ensures the full restoration of democratic order."
Pary Rodriguez, Bolivia's OAS representative, said that the resolution is "totally illegal and arbitrary and don’t correspond to the norms of international law." Latin American Herald Tribune and Panama Post and TeleSur
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In a lengthy article that doesn't anywhere contain any form of the world "Socialism," the New York Times blamed Venezuela's massive economic crisis on populism, apparently to take a swipe at Donald Trump.
According to the article:
"When Hugo Chávez took power in Venezuela nearly 20 years ago, the leftist populism he championed was supposed to save democracy. Instead, it has led to democracy’s implosion in the country, marked this past week by an attack on the independence of its Legislature.Venezuela’s fate stands as a warning: Populism is a path that, at its outset, can look and feel democratic. But, followed to its logical conclusion, it can lead to democratic backsliding or even outright authoritarianism."
This is really laughable. I remember, years ago, when I really admired the NY Times, but since the 1980s it's move progressively leftist, and today no longer reports news.
Socialism has led to disaster every time it's been tried. There have been oceans of blood spilled in the name of Socialism in countries like the Soviet Union, Cuba, North Korea and China. In fact, Socialism has been such a disaster that every country has been forced to abandon it, including the Soviet Union, Cuba, China, East Germany, and so forth. North Korea hasn't abandoned it, and that whole country is a disaster. Venezuela is headed the same way.
How stupid to you have to be to "believe" in Socialism when it's failed spectacularly every time it's been tried, and has never been successful - not even once?
Actually, as I've written several times in the past, it's pretty easy to prove mathematically that Socialism always collapses.
In 1991, I visited a huge computer show in Hanover, Germany. It was a special occasion because the Berlin Wall had just fallen, and East Germans were visiting the show for the first time. "They're in a state of shock," I was told. "They're still using punched card equipment from the 1950s." Why had Communist East Germany gotten stuck in the 1950s?
The same with Cuba, which is still using automobiles from the 1950s.
In medieval times, a feudal estate with a couple of hundred tenants could be run on a Socialist basis, if the feudal lord desired. All he'd need is one or two "regulators" to make sure that all prices were fixed and all transactions follow the law.
But as the population grows exponentially, the number of transactions grows exponentially faster, and so the number of "regulators" needed becomes a larger and larger percentage of the population. By the time you have a country with millions of people, every person would have to be a "regulator" to make it work, and obviously that's impossible. So that's why countries like East Germany, North Korea, Russia and Cuba all got stuck in the 1950s until they gave up Socialism. NY Times and News Busters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Apr-17 World View -- With Venezuela's Socialism spiraling into chaos, NY Times blames the mess on 'populism' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Apr-2017)
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Explosion in St. Petersburg subway kills 11, injures dozens
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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St. Petersburg, Russia, has declared three days of mourning, starting from Tuesday, after a bomb exploded on Monday afternoon on a train full of passengers traveling between two stations, killing 11 and injuring dozens. Later, a much larger unexploded bomb was found in a metro station.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin was in the city when the blast occurred, meeting with Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko, though it's not known whether the attack was timed for Monday because the two leaders were present. Putin laid flowers at a makeshift shrine in memory of those who had been killed.
Two million people use the St. Petersburg metro every day. The entire metro system has been put into lockdown, and the people are said to be in fear of further violence. Tass (Russia) and Sky News and BBC
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No one has yet taken credit for the St. Petersburg terror attacks, but many believe that the most likely perpetrators are either the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) or else Chechen terrorists from the Caucasian Emirate formed after Russia's war in Chechnya in the 1990s. In either case, the attack was most likely blowback from Russia's military intervention in Syria.
Russia is a Christian country, and its Christian soldiers have already fought against Sunni Muslim fighters in Afghanistan in the 1980s and in Chechnya in the 1990s. In the 2010s, Christian Russia is allied with Shia Muslim Iran, an arch-enemy of Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia. Russia is fighting on the side of Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad, who is a war criminal dropping barrel bombs and chemical weapons on innocent Sunni Muslim women and children in schools, markets, and even Palestinian refugee camps.
This isn't rocket science. Many analysts have said that there would be blowback. I've been saying so for years, and I've repeatedly criticized the stupidity of Vladimir Putin for going down that path, because blowback has always been certain. You'd have to be crazy to think otherwise. In fact, ISIS has been putting out videos threatening revenge against Russia for invading Syria.
There have been other Sunni jihadist attacks on Russia. In October 2015, ISIS was responsible for bringing down a Russian airliner departing Egypt for St. Petersburg. In 2013, Islamists blew up a train station and a bus near Volgograd. Moscow's airport was attacked in 2011, and its subway system in 2004. Last year, Russia's ambassador to Turkey was killed in Ankara in revenge for Russia's intervention in Syria.
But now, things could be getting worse. ISIS is under attack and is being driven out of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria. Russian security officials have pointed out that there are over 7,000 Islamist fighters from Russia and other former Soviet countries fighting in Syria, and with ISIS possibly close to defeat, some of those fighters will be free to return to their home countries.
It's not certain that Islamist terrorists were responsible for Monday's attacks. Other hypotheses include Ukrainian terrorists, and even anti-government criminals in Russia. But even if one of those hypotheses turns out to be true, the global fury of Sunni Muslims against Christian Russia is real, and will be felt.
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Monday's terror attack in St. Petersburg moves the world further along that trend line. Telegraph (London) and Arab News and Sky News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Apr-17 World View -- St. Petersburg, Russia, train explosion may be blowback from Syria military intervention thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Apr-2017)
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Dalai Lama's escape from Tibet to India in 1959 Lhasa
uprising still humiliates China
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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China, the country that illegally annexes regions in the South China Sea and builds illegal military bases there, is now making its usual furious threats because the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of the Tibetan Buddhists, merely wants to visit the town of Tawang in the Himalaya mountains in northeastern India. The visit begins on Tuesday, and continues for 12 days.
Tawang is a district in India's state of Arunachal Pradesh, 2,000 sq km in size, with fewer than 50,000 people. However, it contains the 17th century hilltop Tawang Monastery, which houses a massive gilded Buddha statue. Because of this monastery, China claims that Tawang is part of Tibet, and claims further that Tibet is part of China and so Tawang is part of China.
China's foreign ministry said that the Dalai Lama's visit "to the contested area will inflict severe damage on the China-India relationship," although the relationship is already so severely damaged that it's hard to see how a mere visit is going to damage it more. In response, India announced that India's Minister of Home Affairs would appear in Tawang with the Dalai Lama, thus giving the visit much greater international prominence.
There are conflicting stories about what the Dalai has said in the past about whether Tawang is part of Tibet or part of India. According to India's former ambassador Ranjit S Kalha, when the Dalai Lama fled from Tibet in 1959 and passed through Tawang, at that time he thanked India for making his journey "through this extremely well administered part of India as comfortable as possible." However, Chinese officials claim that the Dalai Lama said for years that Tawang was historically Tibetan, and only in 2008 said that it was part of India.
According to recent statement by a Chinese official:
"The Dalai Lama’s assertion that Tawang is part of India is against the core interest of the Chinese people. He advocates Tibetan autonomy but is really seeking independence. By allowing him a platform, the India government is going back on its promise of not allowing the Tibetan government in exile to engage in activities undermining China’s sovereignty."
There is also a 1914 deal between India and Tibet defining the border between Tibet and India, and making all of Arunachal Pradesh part of India. However, China has never recognized this deal.
There have been agreements in 1993 and 2005 between India and China that appeared to settle the border disputes by putting Arunachal Pradesh into India, and putting another region, Aksai Chin, on the border with Kashmir, into Chinese territory, as shown on the map above.
However, those agreements were made when both countries were in generational Unraveling eras (like America in the 1990s), when nationalism and xenophobia are generally at a low point. Today, both countries are well into a generational Crisis era, with increasing nationalism and xenophobia, and both countries are becoming more assertive and confrontational, and no longer able to compromise. Deutsche Welle and Indian ambassador Ranjit S Kalha and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
After China's army invaded Tibet in 1950 and "liberated" it, there were frequent clashes between China's army and Tibetans. These clashes culminated in Tibet's extremely bloody generational crisis war, the 1959 uprising in Lhasa, Tibet's capital city.
In March 1959, China's army invited the Dalai Lama to visit army headquarters for a theatrical performance and tea. Many Tibetans believed that the army planned to kidnap the Dalai Lama and possibly kill him. On March 10, 300,000 Tibetans confronted China's forces, which some reports number up to a million. The Dalai Lama escaped to India, and in the war that followed, tens of thousands of Tibetan men, women and children were slaughtered by China's army. China also destroyed Lhasa's major monasteries along with thousands of their inhabitants.
Allowing the Dalai Lama to escape has been a continuing humiliation to China. China keeps hoping he'll drop dead, but at age 81, he has refused to do so, so far.
However, the successor to the Dalai Lama has become a major issue. The current Dalai Lama is the 14th. Each Dalai Lama is believed to be a reincarnation of the previous one. Each Dalai Lama can choose the person who will select the next Dalai Lama after he dies. The current Dalai Lama did select a six-year-old boy in the 1995 for this role, but the boy and his family were immediately kidnapped and killed by the Chinese government.
China now wants to take control of the succession process, and essentially to select the next Dalai Lama when the current one dies. However, it's not likely that the Tibetan people will accept the choice of the Chinese government. History.com and Phayul.com (India) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Apr-17 World View -- Dalai Lama to visit region of northeast India claimed by China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Apr-2017)
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Brief generational history of Paraguay
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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One person was killed and dozens injured on Friday night in Paraguay's capital city Asunción during the most massive and most violent anti-government protests since democracy was restored in 1992. The protesters chanted "Dictatorship never again!", in opposition to a proposed constitutional amendment that would permit President Horacio Manuel Cartes to run for a second five-year term in 2018.
Protesters also set fire to the National Congress building, which burned for over two hours, as the rioting carried on long into the night. Two hundred people were arrested.
The protesters were reacting to the memory of the vicious, bloody 35-year dictatorship of General Alfredo Stroessner Matiauda, who had governed Paraguay from 1954 to 1989. He was thrown out of office in a coup, after which a constitution guaranteeing democracy was implemented. The constitution stated that the president would have one five-year term, and could not be reelected.
On Friday, by a secret vote, Paraguay's Senate (upper house) approved a constitutional amendment allowing the re-election of a president to a second term, triggering the violent riots on Friday evening.
For the constitutional amendment to pass, it must also be approved by the Chamber of Deputies (lower house), where 44 of the 80 members belong to Cartes's right-wing governing Colorado party. When the vote is taken, the amendment is expected to be approved easily. It's thought that the rioters set the National Congress building on fire to prevent the vote from being taken.
The constitution amendment is opposed by Senate President Roberto Acevedo of the opposition left-wing Authentic Radical Liberal Party. It's feared that if the amendment is passed, then rioting will be renewed. The dead protester was Rodrigo Quintana, a member of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party.
On Saturday evening, President Horacio Cartes fired Paraguay’s interior minister and top police officials in the hope of avoiding more rioting. The vote in the lower house has been postponed. Reuters and Straits Times (Singapore) and Washington Post
The Spaniards arrived in 1537, and Paraguay became part of the Spanish empire during the conquests of the mid-1500s. Spain's South American empire continued relatively peacefully until the early 1800s, when a major event occurred.
The French Revolution had occurred in the 1790s, and by the early 1800s, Emperor Napoleon of France was proceeding with a series of conquests with the intention of forming an early "European Union," with Napoleon at its head. One of the conquests of his French army was the invasion of the Iberian Peninsula in 1807-08, usurping the Spanish crown. This created a domino effect in Latin America, where one country after another declared independence from Spain, and the Spanish empire essentially disintegrated by 1825. Paraguay achieved independence in 1811.
Paraguay's next generational crisis war was the War of the Triple Alliance, 1865-70, which Paraguay fought against Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. This war was devastating. In the five years of war, as many as 300,000 people, over half of the population, were killed.
Both of these generational crisis wars, the war for independence and the War of the Triple Alliance, are still well-remembered in Paraguay today, and stand as a symbol of the country's unity against foreign invaders.
The Chaco War, 1932-35, was the next generational crisis war, once again fought against another country. The Chaco War, was fought against Bolivia, resulting in the deaths of about 100,000 men.
Alfredo Stroessner was of German ancestry, with a father from Bavaria and a mother from a wealthy Paraguayan family. As a soldier, he fought bravely in the Chaco War, and he was promoted several times during the next decade. In the generational Recovery era that followed, the Chaco War, he proved to be an able politician in the power struggles that occurred, including a brief civil war in 1947.
In 1954, General Stroessner became a dictator through a coup. This was the beginning of the country's generational Awakening era. I've described many times how a country's leader during this period can become extremely violent or even genocidal, as we're seeing today during the Awakening eras of Syria and South Sudan. These leaders use as an excuse that they have to use violence to prevent a new crisis war from breaking out, although that's impossible anyway during an Awakening era. Stroessner's 35-year rule was particularly vicious and bloody, as we described above.
Stroessner was overthrown in a coup in 1989, and in 1992 a constitution was installed that promised a democracy -- including the provision that no one could be president for more than one five-year term. The current president, Horacio Cartes, is trying to amend the constitution to run again, as described above, and this has triggered the most rioting and violence since 1992.
Many people are concerned that this might trigger a civil war between different groups within Paraguay, but this seems unlikely, since the last three generational crisis wars were all fought with an external enemy.
There is a great deal of race awareness in Paraguay. In decreasing order, from those considered the most élite to those considered least élite, historically they are as follows:
In recent decades, there have been additional populations of Japanese, Korean, Lebanese and ethnic Chinese immigrants that have formed small communities. Another distinct subgroup are the "brasiguayos," second-generation Brazilians that were born and raised in Paraguay.
Although there are distinct class differences among the groups listed above, there is no history of a war along a fault line separating them.
Since Paraguay is in a generational Crisis era, it may be close to another war, but I would not expect it to be a civil war, and I would not expect the current rioting to spiral into a larger war, unless another country got involved. Paraguay's crisis wars have all been fought against external enemies, and I would expect its next crisis war to be the same. Country Studies - Paraguay and History World - Paraguay and Every Culture - Paraguay
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An interesting sidebar to this story was that Paraguay's National Congress building was built using a $20 million donation from Taiwan. This is the building where protesters ransacked and set fire on Friday night.
Paraguay is the only country in South America that recognizes Taiwan. China does will not have diplomatic relations with any nation that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan. So China and Taiwan compete with each other to have diplomatic relations with each country, and very often there's a great deal of money involved in that competition. China Post (Taiwan)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Apr-17 World View -- Paraguay wracked by worst violent riots in decades over constitutional crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Apr-2017)
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Violence in India-controlled Kashmir takes a new turn after winter lull
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Wednesday, in the district of Budgam in India-controlled Kashmir, Indian security forces raided the home of an anti-government militant Tauseef Ahmad Wagay who had allegedly been responsible for inciting violence against police. According to India media reports, villagers began obstructing the police and pelting them with stones, in order to allow the militants in the home to escape. In the end, three stone pelters were killed by police gunfire, along with the militant. Dozens of police personnel were injured.
On Friday, after Friday prayers, clashes erupted between government forces and stone-throwing villagers in several towns across Kashmir, to protest the shooting deaths on Wednesday.
Stone-throwing incidents have occurred occasionally in the past, but became frequent after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the leader of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed by Indian police fire. Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day. Indian police responded with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters wounded or killed or blinded by the pellets, and that kind of violence has been an almost daily occurrence since then. After hundreds of people had been blinded by the pellets, the police were convinced to stop using them. By this time winter was approaching, and the protests died down.
But now that the weather is getting warmer again, the protests are growing again, and they may become massive by the end of the summer. At any rate, there's certainly no reason to expect them to die off.
India's Home Minister Rajnath Singh gave a delusional speech on Friday, saying that the increasing protests are occurring because they're being encouraged by Pakistan-based sources, using social media applications like Whatsapp and Facebook:
"I want to inform the House, and we should be proud of it Deputy Chairman, that the way the terrorists should be responded to, our soldiers are giving them reply in the same way, in the same language.A new trend has started in the last few months. Deputy speaker, the trend is this that whenever our soldiers start an operation, some youth from the villages come and start pelting stones on the security forces. But I believe, that our Kashmiri youth, who do stone pelting, are being misled by some Pak-sponsored sources.
I want to appeal to the youth of Kashmir to please don’t get misled by Pakistan, they are regularly trying to destabilise India. I also want to inform the House that this crowd (of stone pelters) are assembled by some Pakistan-based groups with the help of social media applications like Whatsapp and Facebook. All of these are used. I want to say it again that the groups, which use social media for this, are based in Pakistan only.
I also want to say, as far as terrorism is concerned, the way terrorism should be responded to, our soldiers are dealing with them in the same way and they will keep doing that in future also. And I want to say that will definitely become successful."
There are a couple of things to note about the above statement.
First, there's a note of revenge in the speech with such phrases as, "our soldiers are giving them reply in the same way, in the same language." The desire for revenge is quite understandable under the circumstances, but it's not going to end the violence and, in fact, it will only invite tit-for-tat increases in violence.
Second, Singh blames Pakistan-based groups using social media for inciting the stone-throwers. It's quite possible that Pakistan-based groups are using social media to incite stone-throwers, but in no way does that explain the large protests. Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups have been trying to incite jihadist violence in the United States for years, but outside of a few "lone wolf" attacks, we've had no large similar protests, even where there are large Muslim communities in Detroit and Minneapolis. Blaming social media for what's happening is totally delusional.
Third, Singh says, "And I want to say that will definitely become successful." Once again, this is totally delusional.
What seems most likely to happen is that violence will increase on both sides this summer, and may spiral into something slightly bigger or much bigger. First Post (India) and Financial Express (India)
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Separately on Friday, Amir Wagay, the current top commander of Hizbul Mujahideen, was arrested on Friday, along with some arms and ammunition, according to police reports. He was involved in numerous attacks on security forces, and was high on the "wanted" list.
Burhan Wani, who was shot by police on July 8 of last year, triggering months of violent protests, was the commander of Hizbul Mujahideen at that time. Hindustan Times
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From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the growing violence in Kashmir is following a fairly standard historical template that always ends in a major war. I've written in the past to distinguish between "organic" genocides that come from the people, such as the 1994 Rwanda genocide, versus "government-led" genocides, such as occurring today in Syria and South Sudan.
Although there's little doubt that Pakistan-based groups are inciting violence in Kashmir, that isn't enough to start a generational war unless the mood of the population is that such a war is necessary. As I mentioned above, there are jihadists groups inciting Muslims in America to violence, but they're having almost no success. But what we're seeing in Kashmir is an "organic" war that's leading unstoppably to a generational crisis war.
As I described last year, India's last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, and the 1947 Partition war.
The 1857 rebellion is also called India's First War of Independence from the British colonial power. What started out as protests related to the Hindu veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody generational crisis war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000 Indian civilians.
India remained a British colony, and there was little or no violence for decades, as always happens after a generational crisis war, since the traumatized survivors do not wish anything so horrible to happen again. However, as younger generations with no personal memory of the war rise to power, conflicts begin again.
In the 1910s, Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, launched a "non-cooperation movement" against the British, involving civil disobedience. The generational Awakening era climax occurred on April 10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre), when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest meeting, killing hundreds. That event convinced both the British and the Indians that Britain should completely give up control of India.
By 1946, there was a debate centered on two choices: Should there be a single Indian state, with separate regions under the control of Muslims and Hindus, or should there be a two-state solution, a Muslim state living side-by-side in peace with a Hindu state? The argument that won the day was that Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't eat cows, and so they can't live together. Finally, British, Muslim and Hindu officials all agreed that there had to be two separate states, India and Pakistan. In particular, the 1857 rebellion was still in everyone's mind, and it was hoped that the two-state solution would lead to peace.
There's an old saying that "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes." In 1947, the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into two countries, India and Pakistan, and no sooner did that happen then there was a massive new generational crisis war. But with the British colonists gone, this war pitted the Hindus against Muslims, in one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century.
Once again, there was relative peace following the war, but once again, younger generations have been rising, and have no fear of a new war. The accusation that Pakistan-based groups are using social media to incite violence is undoubtedly true, but India media are no better.
Here's an excerpt from an opinion piece from right-of-center Indian media:
"It is good that the Army Chief has made good his promise that those aiding terrorists will be dealt with like terrorists themselves, but there are discordant notes being struck by politicians who still think talks can sort out the situation. ...It is silly to expect that talks with Pakistan or Kashmiri separatists will somehow bring peace to the Valley. It won’t. The only way peace will come is when the security forces wear down the jihadis and Pakistan-backed terrorists over years, and the local population realizes that they have no alternative but to be a part of secular India. There is not going to be any instant nirvana in this deadly game."
The person who wrote has absolutely no clue what he's talking about when he writes, "The only way peace will come is when the security forces wear down the jihadis and Pakistan-backed terrorists." That is not what happens in a generational Crisis era. The security forces will only enrage the separatist youth, and tit-for-tat escalations will soon lead to a full-scale war that will spread and engulf both Pakistan and India. That's the way that the world works.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Swarajya Magazine (India
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Apr-17 World View -- India-Pakistan clash threatened as Kashmir violence surges again thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Apr-2017)
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