Dynamics
|
|
Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
| HOME WEB LOG COMMENT FORUM | |
| DOWNLOADS FOURTH TURNING ARCHIVE ABOUT | |
US begins arming YPG Kurds in northern Syria on eve of battle of Raqqa
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Turkey is planning to form a new "National Army" in northern Syria, bringing together factions from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) that fought last year as part of Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield, joined by defectors from the Syrian regime's army. The objective of the previous operation, which began on Aug 24 of last year and ended on March 29 of this year, was to clear out both the the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) from a region in northern Syria.
Turkey ended Operation Euphrates Shield in March under pressure from Russia, but Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed that military operations would continue to prevent either ISIS or the YPG from regaining control of any part of the area cleared out by Operation Euphrates Shield.
The YPG has links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been fighting a separatist rebellion in Turkey since the 1980s, and which has perpetrated a string of major terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last two years. For these reasons, Turkish-led military actions in northern Syria were intended to prevent the Kurds from taking control of the entire northern border of Syria, and then declaring an independent Kurdish state of Rojava.
An additional purpose of the new "Syrian National Army" was to create a buffer zone or safe zone for Syrians fleeing the conflict, something that Erdogan has been demanding for years. According to Erdogan:
"Once we have created a safe zone, the Syrians will be able to establish their National Army, so they can feel safe."
According to Turkish media, almost a million people so far have returned to the area cleared of ISIS and the YPG, or have been relocated there from other conflict areas.
The Syrian conflict has resulted in millions of refugees. Some three million are in Turkey, about one million are in Europe, and millions more are in Jordan and Lebanon. The safe zone or buffer zone in northern Syria could provide for Syrian refugees that's within Syria itself.
The role of the YPG is a major area of contention between Turkey and the US. The YPG are allies of the US military who considers them to be the most effective anti-ISIS fighting force in the region. However, because of the YPG links with the PKK, Turkey considers the YPG to be terrorists. It's believed that there are hundreds of US special forces troops in the region, and one of their objectives is to keep the Turks and the Kurds from shooting at each other. TRTWorld-Youtube (Turkey) and Al Monitor and Reuters (18-May)
Related Articles
The US army has begun arming YPG Syrian Kurdish militias, as announced early in May. The weapons would include small arms, mortars, AK-47s, heavy machine guns, shoulder-fired weapons, ammunition, bulldozers and armored vehicles such as the M1117 Guardian. According to the military, the selected weapons will address the specific threats that ISIS poses, such as the Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDS), or car bombs of the type that ISIS has used to break up assaults.
This comes on the eve of the assault on Raqqa, the major stronghold and so-called Caliphate of ISIS. The YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are now about two miles from the city, and the battle to eject ISIS is expected to be extremely bloody and last for weeks or months.
The assault to eject ISIS from Raqqa in Syria is beginning, but the assault by Iraq's army to eject ISIS from Mosul in Iraq continues, after beginning in October of last year, and is also a long, bloody battle.
It's believed that within a few months, ISIS will have been ejected from both Raqqa and Mosul. Until then, all these various armies and militias have a common enemy. After that, these armies will have no one to fight except each other, and one possibility is that the thousands of ISIS fighters will return to their home countries, possibly to conduct lone wolf attacks. Military Times/AP and Fox News and NRT (Kurdistan) and Sputnik News (Moscow)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-May-17 World View -- Turkey builds a northern Syria 'National Army' from Free Syrian Army militias thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Brief generational history of Berbers and Arabs
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Police on Monday in the town of al-Hoceima in Morocco arrested anti-government activist Nasser Zefzafi, on the charge of having interrupted a prayer ceremony at a mosque in al-Hoceima. The arrest warrant was issued on Friday, because he had "obstructed, in the company of a group of individuals, freedom of worship" at the mosque, according to prosecutors, and because he stopped "the preacher from continuing his sermon, giving a provocative speech in which he insulted the imam and fomented disturbances that undermined the calm and sacredness of the place of worship."
Nasser Zefzafi is the leader of the anti-government Popular Mobilization movement (Al-Hirak al-Shaabi), which he founded last year in November, after the bizarre death on October 26 of a fishmonger who was crushed by a garbage truck.
Mouhcine Fikri, a fishmonger, was illegally selling out-of-season swordfish worth $10,000 that he had just purchased from the port in al-Hoceima. A policeman confiscated his swordfish, and threw it into a garbage truck. Fikri jumped into the garbage truck to retrieve his fish, and he was crushed to death by the garbage truck. Some people who were present claim that the policeman told the garbage truck driver to crush him on purpose, though the police deny this.
Pictures of Fikri's horrific death went viral, and triggered regular protests since then. Fikri and Zefzafi are both ethnic Berbers, and al-Hoceima is a mostly Berber port city in northern Morocco, a country governed almost entirely by Arabs.
Zefzafi has been accused of wanting for form an independent Berber country, which he denies: "Our demands are economic and social, there has never been a question of creation of an independent state. For six months we have been resisting... And we will resist until they respond to our demands for the economic and social development of our region."
More than 20 activists were arrested over the weekend following clashes between protesters and the police. BBC and AFP and Al-Jazeera
Related Articles
Berbers or Amazighs claim to have lived in northern Africa for thousands of years, since the dawn of civilization, and are referred to as Libyans in classical texts. Although they had wars with the Romans and Byzantines for centuries, they were not subjugated until the arrival of the Arabs starting in the 680s, fifty years after the death of Mohammed. Today there are still isolated tribes descended from the original Berbers, maintaining ancient traditions and the Berber's Tamazight language, but the population of Berbers has diminished over the centuries, often due simply to intermarriage with the dominant Arabs.
In modern times, Algeria's war of independence from France (1954-62) united the Berbers and Arabs against the common enemy, the French. However, during the generational Awakening era that followed, tensions grew between the two ethnic groups, culminating a major anti-government protest in Algeria, the Printemps Berbère (the "Berber Spring") of April 1980. The Berbers demanded an end to discrimination by the Arab majority, and recognition Tamazight as a national language. The protests were bloodily suppressed by Algerian security forces.
Since then there have been occasional new protests, the worst occurring in July 2015, when at least 22 people were killed in ethnic clashes between Berbers and Arabs in Algeria.
Berber anti-government protests have been growing again in Morocco, ever since Berber fishmonger Mouhcine Fikri was crushed to death by a garbage truck after a confrontation with an Arab policeman. Now the arrest of anti-government activist Nasser Zefzafi is certain to energize new protests, probably as early as the weekend. Ancient.eu and France 24 and Temehu.com (Libya)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-May-17 World View -- Arrest of Berber activist in Morocco raises Berber-Arab tensions thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The US deploys three aircraft carriers to Korean waters amid talk of war
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
South Korea reports that early on Monday morning, North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile, its ninth ballistic missile test this year. This comes just one week after another ballistic missile test. The missile flew about 450 km (280 miles), and landed in the Sea of Japan.
The missile is assumed to be a "Scud" missile known as the KN-06, that can be launched from a mobile platform, to target enemy aircraft or nearby ground targets. North Korea has a large stockpile of Scud missiles, originally developed by the Soviet Union.
North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is quoted as saying that the system should be deployed "all over the country like forests so as to completely spoil the enemy’s wild dream to command the air, boasting of air supremacy, and weapon almighty."
The usual steps have been taken in response to the latest ballistic missile test: South Korea's President Moon Jae-in, who had hoped to have friendly relations with North Korea, called a meeting of the country's National Security Council. Japan launched a protest and called the test "highly problematic, while Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe vowed action to deter North Korea's repeated provocations. Reuters and The Diplomat and Sky News (Australia)
Related Articles
The US Navy is deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group to the waters around North Korea. The USS Nimitz will join the USS Carl Vinson and USS Ronald Reagan, which were already in the region. That decision was made before Sunday's ballistic missile test, so tensions are growing high in the region.
These events are causing people to worry about war, and specifically to worry that president Donald Trump will launch airstrike on North Korea.
It's impossible to predict what any individual will do, and that certainly includes politicians. So it's possible that Trump may order some kind of attack on North Korea, and thus trigger a major new Korean war, and subsequently a world war. My personal belief is that three aircraft carriers are there to pressure North Korea politically, and that the actions are being taken with the cooperation of the Chinese, and possibly even the Russians.
For example, one scenario short of an attack is that China and the US are playing good cop / bad cop. That's just a guess. Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see.
Sunday's test was of a short-range mostly defensive ballistic missile, so it may be possible to have fanciful thoughts that North Korea is backing down, or at least slowing down. A new test of either a nuclear weapon or an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), two technologies which could be combined to deliver a nuclear weapon to the US mainland, would raise tensions enormously.
No one doubts any longer that North Korea will inevitably develop the technology to deliver a nuclear weapon to the US mainland. So there's going to be a war now or in the near future. That's what Generational Dynamics has been predicting anyway, so there's no surprise. Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and Daily Beast and CBS News
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-May-17 World View -- North Korea launches another ballistic missile test, as talk of war increases thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
India declares nationwide prohibition on sales of cattle for slaughter
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In a move that critics say will devastate the economy, India's Environment Ministry on Friday issued regulations banning the sale of cattle, when the intent is slaughter or religious sacrifice. Cattle are defined as bovine animals, including bulls, bullocks, cows, buffalos, steers, heifers and calves and includes camels.
The new regulations are seen as a move by prime minister Narendra Modi to satisfy demands from his Hindu nationalist base, who have been calling for a ban on all cow slaughter across the country. Banning cow slaughter is seen as targeting Muslims, who kill cows for meat, a practice that's followed by people of all faiths in almost all countries of the world.
An analysis in the Hindustan Times points out that only 30% of cattle slaughtered in India is used for meat – either local consumption or export – while 70% of the carcass is traded for industries that deal in dozens of items for daily use, including buttons, soap, toothpaste, paint brushes and surgical stitches. India exported 2.4 million tonnes of buffalo meat to 65 countries in 2014-15, or 23.5% of global beef exports, worth about $4.6 billion.
The hardest hit, according to the analysis, will be rural farmers who use cattle for ploughing. When a bull or bullock is no longer productive, the farmer sells it for 40% of its original purchase price, and uses the money to purchase a replacement animal. If the farmer is unable to sell the unproductive animal for slaughter, then the farmer will lose this money and, even worse, will not be able to slaughter the animal himself, so will have to continue feeding it. Hindustan Times and News 18 (India) and Times Now (India)
Related Articles
Indian security forces in India-governed Kashmir killed a prominent militant commander, Sabzar Ahmad Bhat, and a fellow militant, along with a civilian, early on Saturday after a gunfight that lasted for hours. The death of the militants triggered widespread protests across Kashmir Valley, and the imposition of new curfews.
The death of Bhat at the hands of security forces is significant because he is the operational commander of the terrorist group Hizbul Mujahideen, and successor to Burhan Wani, the Hizbul Mujahideen commander who was killed by security forces last year on July 8. The death of Wani last year triggered a major surge in violence that continues to this day, claiming 78 lives, and blinding hundreds of Kashmiris from the use of pellet guns by security forces.
Hizbul Mujahideen is a separatist terror group of Muslims demanding independence for India-governed Kashmir, and that it be permitted to merge with Pakistan-governed Kashmir, so that all of Kashmir is under Pakistan control.
As news of the death of Bhat spread, there were widespread protests by local citizens, as thousands of people began heading to Bhat's home village Tral, about 30 miles south of the provincial capital Srinagar, and pelting security forces with stones. According to some reports, 80 people were injured. Authorities imposed restrictions in parts of Kashmir Valley and suspended mobile internet services.
There's a romantic back story to Bhat. Bhat was a childhood friend of Burhan Wani. Bhat reportedly turned to militancy after the family of a girl he loved spurned his marriage proposal and ended the relationship. Rising Kashmir and AP and News 18 (India)
The killing of militant commander Sabzar Ahmad Bhat represents a change of strategy by India's army in Kashmir, according to Major General BS Raju, who heads the army's Victor Force in south Kashmir. Raju considers the death of Bhat to be an outstanding success. Instead of simply applying techniques to pacify protesters, he says that "We are going after the leaders."
According to a news analysis in FirstPost:
"That was the strategy of then BSF IG Ashok Patel, who handled militancy at its worst, between 1990 and 1993. Patel targeted commanders based on specific intelligence. He laid cordons at specific locations on the basis of that information.The strategy worked well. The heads of major militant organizations, including Muslim Janbaz Force, Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front, Students Liberation Front, Al Umar and Hizbullah were all rounded up (arrested) by April 1992.
That only left the largely rural-based Hizb in the field. It was in December 1992 that Pakistan allowed the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Afghan-based Harkat-ul Mujahideen to Kashmir. They dominated from then until that round of militancy ended around a decade ago. The new militancy emerged over the past five years."
This is a mistake made by everyone -- politicians, security forces, ordinary people. They remember what happened in the 1990s, and they assume that if they try something that worked well at that time, then it will work well again.
This assumption is completely wrong. The 1947 Partition War was one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. In the 1990s, the people in charge of both the Indians, the Pakistanis and the Kashmiris were all traumatized survivors of that extremely bloody war, and while they might tolerate some peaceful protests and stone-pelting, they would do everything possible to prevent a repeat of what happened in 1947. It's ironic, but in the 1990s the Hindus and the Muslims would have been cooperating with each other, whether consciously or by instinct, to keep any protests from getting out of hand.
Those traumatized survivors are gone now, and the people in the younger generations who are in charge now have absolutely no clue what happened in 1947, nor what's going to be happening to them in the near future.
So now in 2017, Indian army command BS Raju is going to duplicate the 1992 strategy of Indian army commander Ashok Patel, and he expects it work the same way. There's absolutely no reason to believe that. In fact, killing militant commanders in a generational Unraveling era like the 1990s, may work to convince those traumatized survivors to call off further protests rather than risk further bloodshed, but in a generational Crisis era like today, there is no real fear of further bloodshed on either side, with the result that tit-for-tat escalations can lead to full scale war.
As I've written several times, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims. Kashmir is at the heart of a re-fighting of those two wars. First Post (India)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-May-17 World View -- More violence in Kashmir after another militant leader is killed thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Egypt's warplanes bomb al-Qaeda jihadist training camps in Libya
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
On Friday, ten masked gunmen driving three 4x4 wheelers opened fire with "random shooting" about 140 miles south of Cairo, Egypt, on a convoy of two buses carrying Coptic Christians who were traveling towards Saint Samuel the Confessor Monastery in Maghagha to pray, killing 26 and injuring 25.
Friday's killings were just the latest in a wave of terror attacks on Coptic Christians. In December, dozens of people were killed by a terrorist explosion during Sunday prayers in the chapel of St Peter and St Paul (El-Botroseya) adjoining Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral in Cairo.
Then last month in April, during Palm Sunday services, there were coordinate bombing attacks on Coptic churches in two different cities, killing over 75 people and wounding dozens more. A furious president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi declared a state of emergency in Egypt for three months, allowing authorities to make arrests without warrants and search people's homes. This gave the government near dictatorial powers that could easily be abused, but they didn't prevent Friday's terror attack on Coptic Christians.
Coptic Christians are vocal supporters of al-Sisi, but they are furious at the al-Sisi government for not preventing these repeated attacks, but al-Sisi seems helpless to stop them. The Coptic church dates back nearly 2,000 years, almost to the time of Christ. Coptics make up about 10 percent of Egypt's population of 92 million.
No one has yet claimed credit for Friday's attacks, but both the previous attacks were claimed by the Sinai terror group called Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem). The group changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance in 2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Al Ahram (Cairo) and France 24 and Reuters
Related Stories
In a TV speech late on Friday, Egypt's president Abdul Fattah al-Sisi promised to "protect our people from evil," and announced that warplanes were attacking the town of Derna in eastern Libya, near the border with Egypt. According to al-Sisi,
"The terrorist incident that took place today will not pass unnoticed. We are currently targeting the camps where the terrorists are trained."
Forces from the East Libyan government (one of the three governments currently in Libya) said that they participated in the airstrikes.
This was not the first time that al-Sisi ordered the bombing of al-Qaeda camps in Libya. Readers may recall a widely publicized terror attack from February 2015. The terrorist group Ansar al-Sharia, which had recently changed allegiance from al-Qaeda to ISIS, released a video showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christian workers who had been kidnapped while serving as guest workers in Sirte. The 21 hostages were identified as fishermen from an impoverished village in northern Egypt.
At that time, al-Sisi declared seven days of national mourning, and announced that warplanes has conducted air strikes against militant targets in Libya, including training camps in arms depots. The targets were in the region of Derna, the same as the latest airstrikes. AP and BBC (16-Feb-2015) and Daily Mail (London)
Related Stories
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-May-17 World View -- Egypt's warplanes attack Libya camps after terror attack kills Coptic Christians thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Qatar claims that it was cyber-attacked after media
reports supporting Iran
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
President Donald Trump's harsh condemnation of Iran during Monday's visit to Saudi Arabia has apparently triggered a renewal of a long-standing split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and within the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) in general. The GCC is an organization of Arab nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) on the Arabian Gulf.
The joint statement issued after Trump's meeting with Saudi King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud said the following:
"22. The two leaders also agreed on the need to contain Iran’s malign interference in the internal affairs of other states, instigation of sectarian strife, support of terrorism and armed proxies, and efforts to destabilize the countries in the region.23. The two leaders also stressed that Iran’s interference poses a threat to the security of the region and the world, and that the nuclear agreement with Iran needs to be re-examined in some of its clauses. The Iranian ballistic missile program poses a threat, not only to neighboring countries, but also a direct threat to the security of all countries in the region as well as global security."
The next day, at a meeting with Israeli officials in Jerusalem, he said, "Most importantly, the United States and Israel can declare with one voice that Iran must never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon - never, ever - and must cease its deadly funding, training and equipping of terrorists and militias, and it must cease immediately."
Iran's newly reelected president Hassan Rouhani called Trump's appearance a "theatrical gathering with no practical or political value," saying that "You can't solve terrorism just by giving your people's money to a superpower."
Rouhani was alluding to the deals that Trump and Salman signed for Saudi Arabia to purchase $110 billion in weapons from the US.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi called on Washington to abandon its "warmongering policy, intervention, Iranophobia and sales of dangerous and useless weapons to the main sponsors of terrorism." White House and Reuters and CNN
The above reactions from Iran were to be expected, and were just a repetition of the sorts of things that Iranian hardliners say about the United States every day. Nothing new there.
The reaction that created shocked waves was from Qatar, when Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani was quoted as saying: "There is no reason behind Arabs' hostility to Iran and our [Qatar's] relationship with Israel is good." The statement also praised the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as Iran's puppet terrorist group, Hezbollah.
The statements were immediately picked up by media in Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. An official in the UAE said:
"Qatar favoring the MB and Iran over Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain is a serious political crisis.We concluded the summits in Riyadh, thanking God for uniting Arab, Islamic and international stances and the 3 summits were successful. However, we were surprised today to hear that Qatar’s stance has changed; we believe that is neither a suitable timing, nor suitable excuses or good statements. We ask Allah to guide Qatar."
Four Arab countries -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain -- blocked al-Jazeera and other Qatari news sites.
Then there was a further surprise when Qatari Sheik al-Thani announced that he had never made any such comments, and that Qatar's news web sites had been hacked.
These claims were not universally believed. According to an editorial in the Gulf News:
"Today, the GCC is faced with another challenge. And unfortunately, it is coming from within the ranks of the group. Shortly after the conclusion of last week’s GCC Consultative Summit in Riyadh, we were stunned by remarks, attributed to the Emir of Qatar, Shaikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, during a military ceremony on Tuesday, in which he appeared to defy not only the official GCC policies on most critical issues — particularly Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah — but also to hint that the American bases in Qatar were the only guarantee to safeguard his country from the “threat posed by some neighboring countries”.While the three summits hosted by Saudi Arabia last Saturday and Sunday, in the presence of United States President Donald Trump and leaders of 57 Muslim countries, agreed that Iran was fuelling conflicts and sectarian tension in the region, Shaikh Tamim has been quoted by the Qatari official news agency as saying: “Iran represents a regional and Islamic power that cannot be ignored and it is unwise to face up against it. It is a big power in the stabilization of the region.”"
At this point it is not clear to me, an outsider, whether or not al-Thani actually made the referenced remarks. However, the alleged remarks have triggered a major backlash by other Arab countries, and many officials of those countries believe that the quoted remarks, whether real or not, actually represent Qatar's policies.
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain are still blocking Qatari news sites. Al-Arabiya (24-May) and BBC and The Peninsula (Qatar) and Gulf News
In 2014, I reported several times about a major Mideast realignment, with Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia on one side, and Qatar plus Hamas plus Turkey on the other side. In March of that year there was an extremely bitter split among GCC members. After a stormy GCC meeting, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from Qatar
The trigger was the refusal of Qatar to support a security agreement that was adopted by the GCC several months earlier, requiring all members not to back "anyone threatening the security and stability of the GCC whether as groups or individuals - via direct security work or through political influence, and not to support hostile media." In particular, Qatar has refused to implement three specific provisions:
When Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government were in power in Egypt, then Egypt and Qatar had close relations, and Qatar was providing aid to Egypt. However, in July 2013, army general Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi engineered a coup that overthrew Morsi, and later became president himself.
The split grew larger during the summer, when there was a 60-day war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Qatar and Iran strongly supported Hamas, while many people believed that Egypt was on the side of Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Late in 2014, the vitriolic differences between the GCC countries were papered over, thanks to mediation by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah II, the the older brother of the current King Salman.
What's happened now is that all the vitriolic feelings of 2014 are resurfacing. It's quite possible that this is a momentary blip, and that a way will be found in the next few days or weeks to paper those feelings over again, but the events of the last week prove that those feelings exist, and they can resurface and turn into conflict at any time, if a new event triggers them. AP and Reuters
Related Articles
If you live in Manchester, England, then you're a "Mancunian." Manchester was the site of the recent terror attack,
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-May-17 World View -- Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
India and Singapore launch major naval exercises in South China Sea
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Two weeks ago, China held its wildly spectacular One Belt One Road (OBOR) forum in Beijing. Attending were 1,200 delegates from 110 countries, including 28 heads of state. Among them were seven leaders from members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
But one of those leaders was noticeably missing: Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. The media debated whether China was snubbing Lee, or whether Lee had chosen not to go. Finally, Singapore's government clarified what happened: Lee was not invited. It was an official Chinese snub.
In years past, Lee Kuan Yew, the father of the current prime minister, maintained very friendly relations with China, while still retaining a strategic relationship with the United States. But this balancing act seems to have eluded the current prime minister. He's been increasingly critical of China's illegal militarization of the South China Sea, and he's even joked about China during a visit to Washington.
China got revenge last December when Hong Kong customs illegally seized nine Singapore-owned armored military vehicles being shipped from Taiwan back to Singapore. Singapore finally got them back only after several months had passed, but the message was clear: China no longer considers Singapore to be a friend.
This was further emphasized at the OBOR forum not only by snubbing prime minister Lee, but also by signing billion dollar technology deals with Malaysia and Indonesia, completely bypassing Singapore. Lowy Institute (Australia) and Global Times (22-May) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong - 3-Dec-2016) and Bloomberg (18-May) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong - 1-Oct-2016)
Singapore is a tiny city-state that sits at the bottom tip of the peninsula just below the western portion of Malaysia. Singapore was a British colony, and became self-governing in 1959. It was supposed to remain part of Malaysia, but in 1965 it split off due to ethnic tensions, and became an independent republic.
Singapore guards the entrance to the Malacca Strait, a narrow passageway through which trillions of dollars in goods travel each year. Malacca Strait is extremely important to China as a choke point on the "Maritime Silk Road" portion of OBOR. Because of Singapore's strategic importance, it's somewhat surprising that China has bypassed Singapore, and has only signed deals with Malaysia and Indonesia.
Both India and Singapore are fearful of Chinese military attacks. China may invade Singapore as part of an effort to keep the Malacca Straits open, and India has officially expressed concern that China's military may attack the lightly-defended Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which are India's sovereign territory.
This week, India and Singapore are conducting major joint naval exercises called "SIMBEX," taking place in the South China Sea. Each country is fielding numerous warships and aircraft.
According to an Indian navy spokesman:
"This year's edition of SIMBEX, the 24th such bilateral combat exercise, is aimed at further increasing interoperability between the two navies as well as developing common understanding and procedures for maritime security operations.The thrust of the exercise, with the harbor phase scheduled from May 18 to 20 and the sea phase from May 21 to 24, will be on anti-submarine warfare, integrated operations with surface, air and sub-surface forces, air defense and surface encounter operations."
China's Foreign Ministry commented on the exercises by warning that the activities should "not hurt the interests of other countries," which presumably alludes to China's illegal military bases in the South China Sea:
"If such exercises and cooperation are for the benefits of regional peace and stability, then we have no opposition," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said when asked for China's response by Indian media at a daily briefing.We hold a very open attitude to normal exchanges between countries. We just hope when relevant countries conduct such exchange and cooperation they should bear in mind such activities not hurt the interests of other countries or have a negative impact to regional peace and stability."
It's generous of China to have an open attitude toward "normal exchanges" between countries. However, China has repeatedly threatened America's "Freedom on Navigation" trips through the South China Sea, and has used its vast military power to prevent Vietnam and the Philippines from even accessing their own sovereign waters.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the closer association between Singapore and India is significant because it puts the strategically important Singapore clearly aligned with the West.
The Independent (Singapore) and India Today and India Times
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-May-17 World View -- China's flagrant snub of Singapore reflects deteriorating ties thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
New 'facts on the ground' may force Russia to change its mind
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Last week, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said that the five littoral states bordering the Caspian Sea should be able to reach an agreement this year on the legal status of the Caspian Sea -- specifically, dividing up the seabed among the five littoral states. According to Karasin:
"We believe that this [cooperation with the Caspian Sea bordering countries] is one of the most important issues for Russia now, because the Caspian Sea should be an example of cooperation rather than confrontation. We are well aware that the situation in the world is unstable, there is some uncertainty. The Caspian Sea should be a positive example. There are all necessary conditions for that. ...We are now working to formalize an agreement on the Convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. We hope that this agreement is within arm’s reach. ...
In a word, one can be optimistic and say that we are on the right track."
History shows that none of this is likely to be true. That's not surprising, since we knows from recent experiences with listening to Russia about invading Ukraine, invading and annexing Crimea, Syria, al-Assad's use of Sarin gas, the Russians' shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile, and so forth, that if Russians ever tell the truth, then it's by accident.
The five littoral states of the Caspian Sea have for decades been unable to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea among them. They agree that the entire surface of the sea should be open to all for commercial shipping and for fishing. The disagreements are over the seabed, and particularly control of the vast energy projects built on the seabed.
Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states -- the Soviet Union and Iran, and the Soviets used their vastly superior and military and economic power to gain the advantage in the Caspian Sea.
When the Soviet Union disintegrated, suddenly there were five littoral states. During the 1990s, the chaos in Russia permitted Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan to begin independent oil and gas development projects. By the end of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin was taking charge, and every form of obstruction was used.
Russia's main number one objective is to prevent gas from reaching Europe, except Russia's gas, delivered by Russia's state-owned Gazprom. That means no Middle Eastern or Central Asian gas reaching Europe. It also means no drilling in the Caspian Sea, and it also means no pipelines crossing the Caspian Sea.
Russia has used a variety of heavy-handed methods to reach its objective. By using its superior economic and military power, Russia was able to force Iran and Armenia to sharply limit pipeline capacities through their countries. In 2003, Gazprom attempted to gain control of Georgia's network of high pressure gas transmission lines, thus blocking any Azerbaijan gas from traveling through Georgia, though the attempt was thwarted by financial aid from US Agency for International Development. Tass (Moscow) and Jamestown and Atlantic Council
In the Caspian Sea, Russia's major weapon was to stir disagreements among the other four littoral states with regard to control of the seabed.
International laws provide for various methods for splitting up ownership of the seabed. According to one method, the size of the region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline bordering the sea. Under this method Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these countries favor it.
According to a second set of rules, there are five littoral states, and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this set of rules, because they have the shortest shorelines.
At numerous summit meetings, the Russians have succeeding in provoking disagreements among the countries, with the result that no agreement has been reached in the 26 years since the Soviet Union disintegrated. Since there's no agreement on who owns what, it's been difficult for any country to develop energy projects, which is Russia's objective.
However, Russia's heavy-handed tactics began to backfire. Russia’s four-day interruption of gas supplies to Ukraine in January 2006 caused a surge in Europe’s political resolve to diversify its natural gas supplies and breathed new life into the still fledgling pipeline projects vying to bring Caspian gas to Europe. Russian gas supplies to Central and Southeast Europe were disrupted again from January 6 to 20 in 2009. This longer cutoff coincided with a period of cold weather throughout the region.
This has led to "facts on the ground" that Russia is forced to consider. Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR has started drilling a new well. Norwegian companies have expressed an interest in working with Iran to drill and explore oil fields in the Caspian Sea. And Mideast countries are beginning to work with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on oil and gas projects in the Caspian Sea. All of these energy projects specifically exclude Russia.
For 25 years, Russia has exploited political differences among the other countries to block many pipeline projects, but at the same time, that deadlock has led to expanded contacts between other pairs of littoral states and increased shipping between and among them—again to the exclusion of the Russia.
An even more ominous development for Russia is that since the start of 2017, the amount of cargo passing through Russian ports on the Caspian Sea has fallen, compared to last year, by 48.4%. This figure is striking given that Russian ports elsewhere have seen an 11% increase in traffic over the same period, while the ports of other Caspian littoral states have also grown busier. Such trends are worrisome to Moscow because the decline in traffic at Russia’s Caspian ports is accelerating and putting the country’s regional geopolitical strategy at risk.
At any rate, Russia's deputy foreign minister said that "the Caspian Sea should be an example of cooperation rather than confrontation," and that a legal status agreement should be concluded by the end of the year. And yet, no date has been set for a signing of the legal status agreement, and the setting of such a date is nowhere in sight. Jamestown (George Goble) and Trend (Azerbaijan) and Mehr News (Iran)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-May-17 World View -- Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Greece's parliament raises taxes, cuts pensions to satisfy lenders
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
We reported in February that after passing one harsh austerity measure after another, Greece may refuse to pass another one, and Greece might actually leave the eurozone this time.
However, Greece's parliament has now passed an omnibus austerity bill in order to meet requirements the lending institutions -- the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC), and the International Monetary Fund(IMF). Greece faces a €7.5 billion debt repayment in July, and needs to borrow additional money in order to make that debt repayment.
The terms of bill include the following:
Greece once had an extremely generous pension system. Retirement was possible from as early as the age of 55 after 30 years of work. Public sector employees and women with young children could retire several years earlier. Today, the standard retirement age is 67, and incomes have fallen 40% over the last seven years of crisis.
Under the new bill, there will be some relief measures, contingent on meeting fiscal targets, including benefits for low income groups, support for rental costs up to 1,000 euros annually, increased benefits for parents with children, and subsidies for child care and lower costs for medicines. Kathimerini and Euro News and Kathimerini
Related Articles
Monday's meeting of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers failed to reach an agreement on further debt relief for Greece, despite the harsh new austerity measures adopted by Greece's parliament.
The main purpose of the talks was to get the IMF to join in the bailout. The IMF doesn't want to provide any more bailout money because it believes that Greece's debt is unsustainable, unless the Eurogroup agrees to give Greece more debt relief.
Germany's irascible Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble won't agree to release new bailout funds to Greece, unless the IMF participates. But with German elections approaching, Schäuble also won't agree to further debt relief for Greece.
Germany's government is split. For months, Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel has criticized Schäuble's tough stance on Greece.
Schäuble is in Germany's conservative Christian Democratic Union party. Gabriel is in Germany's Social Democrat party. Gabriel is demanding that debt relief for Greece "must not fail due to German resistance." However, the Germany parliament needs to approve bailout negotiations, and Schäuble responded to Gabriel on Monday:
"In Germany, we have a legal framework for parliamentary involvement ... which is sometimes overlooked, including by members of the German government."
The next meeting will occur in three weeks. Agreement must be reached in time to lend Greece the next tranche of loans to that Greece can make its €7.5 billion debt repayment in July. If Greece fails to make that payment, then it is in default.
This looks like it has all the makings of another major Greek debt crisis, with several all-night meetings in a row, and with agreement finally reached at 5 am on the last possible day to avoid bankruptcy. However, some reports indicate that the Europeans are really sick and tired of those awful crisis weekends, and so they may be motivated to reach an agreement more quickly. Kathimerini and Politico (EU) and Bloomberg
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-May-17 World View -- Germany's government blocks debt relief for Greece, despite new austerity measures thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Socialist Venezuela again delays eliminating 100-bolivar notes
despite hyperinflation
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Eight days after the last one, North Korea test-fired another ballistic missile on Sunday. It flew about 500 km, before falling into the Sea of Japan.
According to North Korea state media, Kim Jong-un "supervised" the test firing, and "analyzed the results of the test-launch and expressed his great satisfaction over them, saying it is perfect."
The new president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, had promised to begin talks with North Korea in the hopes of convincing them to stop the tests. North Korea has not responded at all to the call for talks, and this latest ballistic missile test appears to be intended as a complete rejection.
Analysts generally are saying that North Korea already has the ability to send a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile to countries and US bases in the region, and that its development is proceeding quickly enough that the ability to send one to the US mainland is in sight.
An opinion writer, Paul Wee, for the Seattle Times explains North Korea's motivations as follows:
"There is something more that needs to be said. In the early 1950s, responding to the North Korean threat, U.S. B-29s, with little opposition, carried out the saturation bombing of villages and towns across the North. The capital, Pyongyang, was 75 percent destroyed with more than 3 million people killed. Over a three-year period, 20 percent of the population was wiped out.Then Undersecretary of State, Dean Rusk, said that the U.S. bombed “everything that moved in North Korea, every brick standing on top of another.” With the cities in ruins, attention was then given to the destruction of irrigation and hydroelectric dams and the destruction of crops.
Although little is spoken or written about this side of the war, in North Korea it is remembered as if it happened yesterday. During a visit in 1984, I recall billboards along the main roads that purported to graphically document the destruction and convey the enormity of the human suffering."
Here's what I wrote after the last ballistic missile test:
"The United Nations Security Council will meet on Tuesday to discuss the situation. They're expected to issue a statement condemning the missile test, calling it "unacceptable," and threatening that if there's another test then the Security Council will hold another meeting."
Well, not surprisingly, that has turned out to be completely true. South Korea's new president, Moon Jae-in, has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. AFP and Kyodo and KCNA Watch and Seattle Times
Related Articles
Hyperinflation continues in the Socialist economy of Venezuela, with an inflation rate of 93% in just January-April of this year. The country's bolivar currency is down more than 99% since Socialist leader Nicolás Maduro became president in 2013.
Because the currency is becoming almost worthless, Maduro has ordered the elimination of lower-denominated bills. The 100-bolivar bill was supposed to be eliminated in December, but the order has been delayed for the seventh time, and now the elimination is scheduled for July 20.
The 100-bolivar bill is currently worth about 14 US cents, and its value is continuing to fall. The plan is to eliminate it, and print new bills of 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 20,000 bolivars.
No reason has been given for the seventh delay, but in the past the government has been unable to purchase paper because it didn't have enough foreign exchange to be able to pay foreign suppliers.
Throughout history, Socialism has had a 100% failure rate, causing nothing but economic disaster and dead bodies floating down the streets in rivers of blood, while Socialist leaders bask in opulence. Venezuela is headed down the same road, and it won't be long before Maduro orders the army to massacre thousands or tens of thousands of people, so that he can stay in power. Whether Kim Jong-un or Maduro, these Socialist leaders are all the same. Latin American Herald Tribune and Reuters
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-May-17 World View -- North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Donald Trump gets royal treatment visiting Saudi Arabia
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Iran's president Hassan Rouhani won an election battle to be decisively re-elected for a second four-year term as president. Rouhani is considered a moderate, and was not favored by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. Rouhani won 57% of the vote in a large turnout, a huge margin against Khamenei's favored candidate, hardline cleric Ebrahim Raissi, who got only 38% of the votes.
In his victory speech, Rouhani said:
"Honorable Iranian nation, you are the winners of the election. I humbly bow to you. I will remain faithful to my vow to you. ...Prouder than ever before, Iran is today ready to step up its relations with the world on the basis of mutual respect and national interests.
Our nation’s message (of peace and friendship) was explicitly departed to the world ... and the nation expects this most important message to be correctly heard by all governments, neighbors, and specifically, by great powers. ...
“Our elections indicated to the neighbors and the region that the way to restore security to the region is to shore up democracy and honor the people’s votes rather than to rely on foreign powers. ...
Today, the world is well aware that the Iranian nation has chosen the path of interaction with the world, a path which is distant from extremism and violence. Our nation seeks to live in peace and friendship with the world. However, it is not ready to accept any disrespect or threat. This is our nation’s most important message, and our nation expects the message to be appropriately heard by all states, neighboring countries and, particularly, world powers."
It's an interesting observation that Iran comes second only behind Israel as the most democratic countries in the Mideast.
Analysts indicate the decisive victory comes from the overwhelming support of young people, who came out in large numbers because of opposition to the hardline restrictions on dress, free speech, and gender relations, and because of the widespread belief that Khamenei and the hardliners were using illegal tactics to win the election. Some analysts say that the election was about the economy, but since Rouhani has failed to meet his election promises in the economy, that does not seem to be the reason that Rouhani won. Instead, it appears that young people ignored the economic issues just to vote against the hardline clerics.
As I've written many, many times, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988 with Saddam's use of chemical weapons. A generational Awakening era is always about a "generation gap," a political conflict between the generations of traumatized survivors of the preceding generational crisis war and the generations of young people who grew up after the war, and have no personal memory of it. The older and younger generations have completely different world views, and the political conflict continues until there's an Awakening era climax that settles the disputed. America's last Awakening era was the 1960s-70s, marked by the "Summer of Love," as well as widespread political and racial riots, until the Awakening era climax occurred in 1974 with the resignation of President Richard Nixon.
Iran is also headed for some kind of Awakening era climax, pitting the younger generations, current represented by Hassan Rouhani, versus the traumatized Great Islamic Revolution survivors, currently represented by Ebrahim Raissi and Ayatollah Khamenei.
Rouhani's decisive electoral victory is not enough to be called an Awakening era climax, but it could trigger events that could lead to such a climax. During the campaign, Rouhani bitterly criticized his political opponents, including Raissi's supporters and the powerful Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) which enforces many of the hardline laws. Now that the election is over, hardliners are expected to "settle scores," and this could result in a major political battle of a kind similar to the one that led to Nixon's resignation.
In fact, there is a particularly bitter battle on the horizon. Khamenei has been Supreme Leader since 1989, but he's 77 years old, and is in poor health, so there's a succession battle approaching. This succession battle may trigger the Awakening era climax that we've been describing. Tehran Times and Reuters and The Hindu
Related Articles
As I've been writing for over ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that Iran will be an American ally in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, which will pit the US, India, Russia, Iran and the west against China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries.
Now would be a good time to briefly reprise the reasons for the prediction that Iran will be an American ally. There are two major categories of reasons.
Now would also be a good time to reprise the three events of 1979 that shook the Muslim world in the Mideast and beyond, and how they affect events today:
Needless to say, Americans today are totally oblivious to the events described here, but these were epochal events in the history of the Arab, Persian and Muslim worlds in the Mideast and beyond, and they define what's happening in the Mideast today.
Related Articles
President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia on Saturday, on the first leg of his five-nation tour. The first three visits will be to the centers of the Abrahamic religions -- Riyadh in Saudi Arabia, Jerusalem, and the Vatican. After that, he'll visit Brussels, the capital of the European Union, and then Taormina Italy for the G-7 meeting.
Trump was received like visiting royalty in Saudi Arabia. Trump, his wife Melania, and his senior White House staff were serenaded by military bands, treated to a flyover of Saudi jets, feted in opulent palaces and given the undivided attention of Saudi's 81 year old King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud.
Trump and Salman signed an agreement for the sale of $110 billion of military equipment to Saudi Arabia over several years. The deal includes tanks, combat ships, missile defense systems, radar and communications, and cybersecurity technology. Trump was joined on the trip by the CEOs of several major U.S. companies, which announced their own agreements with the Saudis. Among them was a $15 billion arrangement with GE focused on power, oil and gas, and health care.
What's most interesting about Trump's visit is the symbolic flip-flop from the previous administration to the current one in attitudes towards Iran and Saudi Arabia.
President Barack Obama repeatedly showed his contempt, in one way or another, for the Saudis, and the feeling was mutual. However Obama, through his Secretary of State John Kerry who believes that America's soldiers are terrorists, repeatedly sucked up to the Iranians, making one humiliating concession after another to close the nuclear deal. However, the feeling was not mutual, as Iran repeatedly insulted Kerry, Obama, and the American people, and still does.
So now president Trump has made a symbolic reversal. Trump is contemptuous of the Iranians, and the Iranians are contemptuous of him. Trump loves the Saudis, and the Saudis love him.
This is a good time to remind readers that it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. So the relations between American, Iranian and Saudi leaders is much less important than the attitudes that the masses of Americans, Saudis and Iranians have for one another.
So we note the following:
I believe that a great deal of information can be determined by detailed generational analyses of the various tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast. I believe that this analysis could be used to predict how events will unfold in the coming years. I certainly don't have anything like the resources to perform such an analysis, but any college student interested in this kind of analysis could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, a generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast. AP and Arab News
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-May-17 World View -- Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
A riddle
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
France's new president Emmanuel Macron fulfilled a campaign promise on Friday by visiting the French peacekeeping troops in Mali, in his first official trip outside Europe since taking office less than a week ago.
There are 4,000 French peacekeeping troops in Operation Barkhane, France's largest overseas operation, which was begun in 2014 by then-president François Hollande, with a vow to "wipe out armed terrorist groups."
The French troops are in five West African nations in the Sahel region, which is a strip of land running horizontally across Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea. Generally speaking, it separates the Arab north from Black Africa, along a fault line that often separates Muslims north of the Sahel from Christians south of the Sahel. The Sahel cuts through the five countries with French peacekeeping forces: Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad.
Macron said that France would be "uncompromising" in its fight against militant Islamists in Mali and the other nations, and vowed that France's military operations would continue until the jihadists are eradicated. According to Macron, "Operation Barkhane will only stop when there is no more Islamist terrorism in the region." France 24 and Radio France Internationale and BBC
The three largest transnational jihadist groups in Mali are al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West-Africa (MUJAO), and al-Mourabitoun, created by Mokhtar Belmokhtar.
However, probably the most important terrorist group in Mali is Ansar Dine (Defenders of Faith), a local terrorist group from the Tuareg ethnic group. The Tuaregs live in a region spanning northern Mali, large parts of Algeria and Niger, and the southwestern portion of Libya.
The Tuaregs had what arguably might be called a "lucky break" in 2011, when Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi was killed. To protect himself, Gaddafi had armed and employed mercenaries, many of whom were Tuareg. When Gaddafi died, the Tuaregs were left with a big weapons cache, which they used to begin a separatist rebellion in Mali.
Central Mali has seen a sharp increase in jihadist attacks and ethnic violence since 2015. The United Nations has had an existing peacekeeping force of 12,000 troops in Mali called MINUSMA since July 2013.
The UN is deploying a rapid intervention force of Senegalese troops to central Mali. China is sending a peacekeeping force of 395 troops to Mali before the end of May.
However, Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau is receiving criticism for failing to meet his campaign promise of providing to the UN 600 Canadian troops for peacekeeping. Instead, has kept postponing the question, refusing to say whether or not the Canadian troops would be supplied. Trudeau's equivocation is causing problems for other countries supplying peacekeeping troops. As one foreign diplomat said, "Just make a decision. Even if it’s a no, we need a decision." TRT World (Istanbul) and News 24 (South Africa) and Premium Times (Nigeria) and National Post (Ottawa)
Related Articles
Question: What do Trump and the Mainstream Media have in common with onald and Nancy Reagan?
Answer: They're obsessed with each other.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-May-17 World View -- France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali 'as long as necessary' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Al-Tanf becomes a military flash point because of strategic value
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
American warplanes launched a series of airstrikes on Thursday against a military convoy of pro-regime militias fighting in Syria. This is the second time in the last few months that American forces have intentionally struck military targets supporting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
The first time occurred in April, when American ships in the eastern Mediterranean Sea launched dozens of cruise missiles at the al-Shayrat Airbase in Syria. That airbase was chosen because it's the base from which Bashar al-Assad one week earlier launched a horrific Sarin gas on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, killing up to 100 people.
Thursday's attack was on a pro-Syrian regime convoy headed in the direction of an American training camp at the border town al-Tanf in Syria, near the border with Iraq and close to the Jordan border.
Originally there were thirteen vehicles in the convoy headed for al-Tanf. US warplanes were scrambled in a "show of force" to dissuade the convoy from proceeding further. According to some reports, there were "Russian attempts to dissuade pro-regime movement."
After the show of force, five of the vehicles continued approaching the base. When they were within 29 km of the base, they were hit by US aircraft.
It's believed that the militia forces in the convoy were not from the regular Syrian army, but were Shia militias coming either directly from Iran or from Iran's puppet Hizbollah militia in Lebanon. Although some vehicles were destroyed, it's not known whether there were any casualties. AFP and CBS/AP
Related Articles
Al-Tanf is a Syrian border town on the other side of the border with the Iraq town of al-Waleed, which is a major border crossing between Iraq and Syria. The two towns lie on Route 1, the principal highway that runs between Iraq's capital Baghdad and Syria's capital Damascus, and also forks off to Jordan's capital Amman.
Militants from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) captured the al-Waleed border crossing two years ago in May, 2015, during the sweep that gave ISIS control of a great deal of territory in Syria and Iraq. As ISIS faced numerous counterattacks, al-Waleed was recaptured from ISIS by the Free Syrian Army in May of 2016. Even though it's no longer under ISIS control, it still retains enormous strategic value. ISIS fighters have repeatedly attacked the al-Tanf base, and had to be repelled by US Special Operations Forces.
Two days ago, Iranian state Fars news agency said the following:
"The sources said that the Hezbollah Movement has deployed 12 regiments with 1,000 fighters to Homs, Dara'a and Quneitra to face the US-backed militants in al-Tanf border crossing and foil Washington's plan for the capture of Deir Ezzur.The sources said that the Syrian Army troops and their popular allies are trying hard to intensify their operations in Badiyeh (desert) to reach the border with Iraq and Jordan to prevent the militants backed up by the US and Jordan from attacking Deir Ezzur via the Syrian border with Jordan."
The border crossing is at the intersection of Syria, Iraq and Jordan, and Route 1 also forks off into Jordan, linking up to the capital city Amman. Reports indicate that there has been increased military activity in the region, and that there is a race to reach the border between US, British and Jordanian special forces, on the one hand, and Syrian, Hezbollah and Iranian forces on the other hand. BBC (22-May-2015) and Fars (Tehran) and CNN and Debka
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-May-17 World View -- US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Washington shocked as Turkey's security forces attack
peaceful protesters
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
It's common to read about national security forces in other countries bashing peaceful anti-government protesters, but it's a shock for it to happen in Washington DC. But that's what happened on Tuesday evening, when Turkey's security forces brutally attacked peaceful protesters in front of the Turkish embassy.
The attacks occurred shortly after Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with president Donald Trump in the White House, and then returned to the Turkish embassy.
Witnesses, backed by social media video, say that Erdogan's security forces broke through DC police lines and attacked protesters outside the embassy carrying the flag of the Kurdish PYD party.
Some social media video shows Turkish officials dressed in suits beating and punching people in the crowd and, in at least one case, kicking out at a woman lying on the ground curled up to protect herself.
The PYD is a left-wing Kurdish political party in Syria affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a terrorist group that has conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Turkey, and has conducted an on-and-off civil war in Turkey for decades. There were 11 people hurt, including on US police officer. Washington DC police called in reinforcements and separated the two sides, making two arrests.
It's possible that the perpetrators of the attack cannot be prosecuted because they have diplomatic immunity. However, some analysts say that diplomatic immunity does not apply to the security detail traveling with a foreign leader.
This is not the first such incident. In March of last year, Erdogan was on his way to visit the Brookings Institute in Washington to give a speech. While he was en route, Erdogan's security personnel kicked both Turkish and Western journalists and protesters in front of the Brookings building.
An even worse incident occurred in Ankara in December of last year, when a member of Turkey's security forces shot and killed Russia's ambassador to Turkey.
The US State Dept issued this statement on Wednesday morning:
"We are concerned by the violent incidents involving protestors and Turkish security personnel Tuesday evening. Violence is never an appropriate response to free speech, and we support the rights of people everywhere to free expression and peaceful protest.We are communicating our concern to the Turkish government in the strongest possible terms."
NY Times and Times of Israel and US News and Foreign Policy (1-Apr-2016) and US State Dept.
Related Articles
Turkey's media are putting a positive spin on the outcome of Tuesday's meeting of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan with president Donald Trump. They're emphasizing the friendly smiles and handshakes, as well as the "new awakening" in relations between the two countries, without focusing on the fact that Erdogan left the meeting empty-handed.
Erdogan had two major agenda items for the meeting:
However, Trump and Erdogan did agree that they should both "fight terror."
The meeting between Trump and Erdogan lasted only 22 minutes, suggesting that it might have been simply a preparatory meeting for further negotiations in the future. VOA and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Turkey)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-May-17 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed as his security forces attack protesters in Washington thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
CAR refugees threaten to spread Ebola outbreak in
Democratic Republic of Congo
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The generational crisis civil war in Central African Republic (CAR) has been going on since 2013, when nomadic mostly-Muslim herder tribes form "Séléka" militias and began committing atrocities against Christians, triggering revenge attacks by Christians who formed "anti-Balaka" militias and began committing atrocities against Muslims.
Since then, United Nations peacekeeping forces have been usually able to keep the two sides apart within Bangui, the nation's capital. But CAR is a huge country, and sectarian atrocities with Christian anti-Balaka militias massacring and committing atrocities against Muslim Séléka people, and vice-versa, has continued and grown across the country, especially in rural areas that are completely out of reach of UN peacekeeping forces.
In March, I reported on tribal violence in Bambari and Bria, in the center of the country. What was different about that situation is that the fault lines were more ethnic than religious: farmer tribes and herder tribes are aligning against each other, sometimes ignoring religion. New reports indicate that violence in that region continues, despite efforts by UN peacekeepers.
Now there are reports of major new and growing violence in and around the town of Bangassou, a border town in southeastern CAR on the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Armed anti-Balaka militias attacked Muslim neighborhoods, killing dozens of civilians in several villages.
According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, violence is spreading and growing in rural areas in the southeast, center and western portions of CAR:
"Violence and rising tensions are spreading to areas of the Central African Republic that had previously been spared the kinds of terrifying violence seen in some other parts of the country – this is highly worrying and should set off loud alarm bells.The hard-earned relative calm in Bangui and some of the bigger towns in CAR risks being eclipsed by the descent of some rural areas into increasing sectarian violence, with defenseless civilians – as usual – paying the highest price."
From the point of Generational Dynamics, none of this is surprising. As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis civil war has already started.
The United Nations officials hope that by sending a few hundred peacekeepers here and there, they can get the entire country to go back to the way they were in 2013, but that's not the way generational crisis wars work. This war has to expend a great deal more violence before it can end and, like every generational crisis war, will not end until there's some kind of explosive genocidal climax that will be remembered for decades, or even centuries. UN Office of Human Relations and Relief Web and Reuters and Anadolu
Related Articles
Thousands of families have been running from the violence in the border town Bangassou in southeastern CAR, and fleeing into northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Concerns have been raised because there is a new outbreak of the Ebola virus in a remote DRC region about 250 km from the CAR border, and it's feared that some CAR civilians might become sick and carry the virus back to CAR, where it could spread rapidly.
As of Monday's situation report, the World Health Organization (WHO) has identified 19 cases of Ebola in the northern region of the DRC, with 3 deaths. The DRC strain is the deadliest known, more deadly than the Ebola strain that spread through western Africa two years ago. The WHO hopes that the lessons learned from the last epidemic will be successfully used to prevent a new epidemic. Already, emergency plans are being set up in airports to prevent the spread from country to country.
This is the eighth outbreak of Ebola virus since it was discovered in the DRC in 1976. Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP) and Independent (South Africa) and Vanguard (Nigeria)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-May-17 World View -- Central African Republic violence threatens new spread of Ebola from Congo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Syria's Bashar al-Assad accused of burning thousands
of political opponents in crematorium
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
By this time nothing should surprise us about the psychopathic depravity of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. In 2014, a forensic photographic nicknamed "Caesar" defected from al-Assad's regime with tens of thousands of photos whom al-Assad had tortured using electrocution, eye-gouging, rape, strangulation, starvation, and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale. Al-Assad was so pleased and proud of this torture that he made sure each act was photographed.
In February, Amnesty International released a report based on interviews with 84 people that thousands of peaceful demonstrators had been brought to Saydnaya prison for the kind of extreme torture just described. As many as 50 prisoners per day were taken out of their cells and executed, with their bodies thrown into mass graves.
On Monday, the US State Dept. provided further insight into the execution of prisoners at Saydnaya prison. Apparent al-Assad was motivated by the concern that these huge mass graves might be discovered and show him in an unfavorable light. And so, the State Dept. says that in 2013 al-Assad took one of the buildings adjoining the Saydnaya prison and turned it into a crematorium, so that the bodies of the executed prisoners could be burnt to ashes, rather than thrown into huge mass graves.
According to the State Dept:
"The facts we’re presenting today are based on reporting from international and local nongovernmental organizations, press reporting, and also Intelligence Community assessments. The continued brutality of the Assad regime, including its use of chemical weapons, presents a clear threat to regional stability and security as well as to the national security interests of the United States and our allies. ...Moreover, the regime has also authorized the extrajudicial killings of thousands of detainees using mass hangings at the Saydnaya military prison. Saydnaya is a 45-minute drive outside of Damascus and is one of Syria’s largest and most secure prison complexes. Saydnaya is but one of many detention facilities where prisoners are being held and abused. ...
The regime holds as many as 70 prisoners in Saydnaya in cells that have a five-person capacity. And according to multiple sources, the regime is responsible for killing as many as 50 detainees per day at Saydnaya. Credible sources have believed that many of the bodies have been disposed in mass graves. We now believe that the Syrian regime has installed a crematorium in the Saydnaya prison complex which could dispose of detainees’ remains with little evidence.
Beginning in 2013, the Syrian regime modified a building within the Saydnaya complex to support what we believe is a crematorium, as shown in the photos that we have distributed to you. Although the regime’s many atrocities are well documented, we believe that the building of a crematorium is an effort to cover up the extent of mass murders taking place in Saydnaya prison."
There is speculation that the State Dept released this information at this time in order to put pressure on Russia to rein in Bashar al-Assad from committing new atrocities. US State Dept and Reuters
Related Articles
Rojda Felat, commander of the Kurdish Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) in Syria, which is part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the “Euphrates Wrath Operation” to liberate Raqqa from ISIS, said that the attack will be launched in June: "The attack on Raqqa will take place in the beginning of the summer."
It's believed that there are almost 4,000 fighters from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Raqqa, which is the ISIS "caliphate" and major stronghold. The SDF is joining with the elders of Raqqa's tribes to surrender:
"We call upon all Syrians who joined the ranks of ISIS and those who carry arms, administrators or preachers, to surrender themselves to the nearest military base of the SDF to preserve his or her life and family, and the city from destruction. We are ready to provide all relief and humanitarian support to those who surrender within a maximum of ten days."
The SDF consists mostly of Kurdish fighters from the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG), along with a lesser number of fighters from the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Once Raqqa is captured, the plan is to go down the Euphrates Valley and completely destroy ISIS, which currently controls about 35% of Syria.
The United States military has been gradually increasing its involvement with the SDF, which it backs. It's believed that there are about 700-1,000 US special forces troops in the area. Several hundred are being sent mainly to protect the Kurds from Turkey's military.
Last week, the US military announced that it will move quickly to get weapons, including small arms, mortars, heavy machine guns, shoulder-fired weapons and ammunition, into the hands of the YPG Kurds for use in fighting ISIS. The US considers the YPG to be the most effective fighting force in Syria against ISIS.
Turkish officials are furious at this, since they consider arming the Kurds to be an existential threat to Turkey. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has conducted numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey, and has conducted an on-and-off civil war in Turkey for decades.
Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan will be visiting president Donal Trump in Washington today (Tuesday), and Syria will be a major topic on the agenda. ARA News (Syria) and Al Arabiya and Sputnik News (Moscow)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-May-17 World View -- Final push to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria, to begin in June thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
North Korean missile launch sends a message to everyone
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
North Korea's state media says that the country launched a medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
According to state media, the child dictator Kim Jong-un personally "guided the test-fire," and bragged about its nuclear prowess:
"Pyongyang, May 15 (KCNA) -- A test-fire of new ground-to-ground medium long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 was successfully carried out on Sunday by scientists and technicians in the field of rocket research, who are bravely advancing toward a new goal to be proud of in the world, true to the far-sighted idea of Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, for building a nuclear power.Kim Jong Un guided the test-fire on the spot. ...
He declared that the DPRK is a nuclear power worthy of the name whether someone recognizes it or not. He stressed the DPRK will keep strict control over those engaging themselves in nuclear blackmail with its nuclear deterrence which has been unimaginably and rapidly developed."
The missile traveled almost 500 miles in 30 minutes, and landed in the Sea of Japan, surrounded by the Korean peninsula, about 60 miles south of Russia’s Vladivostok region and approximately 250 miles from Japan.
The missile was launched at the highest possible angle, so that it would travel high into the air, but would limit the lateral distance, and so it reached an altitude of about 1,300 miles. If it had been fired at a standard trajectory, then it would have had a range of at least 2,500 miles, meaning that it could have reached Russia and Japan, and probably the US base at Guam.
Initial reports speculated that it had been an advanced KN-15 missile, from a mobile launcher and with a solid-fuel engine. The mobile launcher allows the missile to be hidden until minutes before launch, and the solid-fuel engine allows it to be ready to launch immediately at any time.
However, it's now believed that it was a KN-17 missile, a single-stage, liquid-fueled missile. Tests with both the KN-15 and KN-17 missiles provide experience and data for ongoing development of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could reach Australia or the United States.
The United Nations Security Council will meet on Tuesday to discuss the situation. They're expected to issue a statement condemning the missile test, calling it "unacceptable," and threatening that if there's another test then the Security Council will hold another meeting. KCNA Watch and 38 North and Fox News and Reuters
Related Articles
The timing of the missile launch on Sunday sends messages to officials in various countries:
Moon had hinted that the US deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) might be reversed, acceding to China's wishes. However, the missile test throws those suggestions into doubt.
North Korea's biggest message of all is that development of a nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles is going to continue, at least until North Korea has an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach Los Angeles, and that it will do so despite the wishes of China or any other country.. CNN and Korea Times and Yonhap (Seoul) and The Australian and LA Times
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-May-17 World View -- North Korea sends a message with a medium range ballistic missile test thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Laborers on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
shot dead on Saturday
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
On Sunday, 28 heads of state, 100 lower-level government officials, and 1,200 delegates from 110 countries will attend China's "One Belt One Road" (OBOR) forum in Beijing. It is also called the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) summit.
The romantic appeal behind the Belt and Road project is that it's a modern day version of the ancient "Silk Road," a collection of trade routes regularly used between 100 BC to 1400 AD by traders carrying goods back and forth between China and Europe. The name comes from the popularity of Chinese silk in the Roman Empire.
However, as the map above shows, the new Silk Road is not simply an overland route. The Belt and Road project consists of two parts:
The OBOR includes infrastructure projects that have already been under development since the 1990s. China plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars over the next 50 years or so to complete the project.
Whether the project will ever be completed is, of course, open to doubt. There's already been one large, spectacular failure. In 2009, China invested $1.2 billion in Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport. Sri Lanka had expected to repay the debt through profits earned by the port, but the slowdown in trade throughout the entire region in the last few years has meant that Sri Lanka has been unable to repay the debt, and now China has essentially taken over the port in lieu of repayment of the debt, resulting in violent protests by Sri Lanka's Buddhist monks and anti-government protesters.
Because the project is so expensive, so long-term, and so unrealistic, many people are suspicious that China's motives are more complex. The Sri Lanka port project shows what can happen -- China invests a lot of money in an infrastructure project in a country, and thereby gains political influence or sovereignty in the country, or even ownership of the infrastructure. Even if the OBOR is never completed, a successful outcome for China would be a strong economic and military grip in countries throughout the region. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and CNN and China Daily and Time
Related Articles
One part of the Belt and Road initiative is known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Over 10-20 years, at a cost of $46 billion, CPEC will supposedly build a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese investment, supplies and interests.
(The CNN map above does not depict the CPEC project. Nor does it depict the "Caspian Trade Corridor" which is also part of OBOR.)
On Saturday, ten laborers working in southern Balochistan province on the CPEC infrastructure were shot dead at close range. Pakistan's marginalized Baloch ethnic group has been opposed to CPEC from the beginning, as they see it as incorporating the worst of China's investment practices.
As we reported in March, some Pakistani analysts concluded that China will charge Pakistan exorbitant interest rates for the debt that it incurs. Balochs are opposed because the project will result in an inflow of more than 600,000 Chinese people -- Chinese workers and their families -- diluting that Baloch population. Baloch activists claim that whatever economic benefits the CPEC project will bring to Pakistan, most of the benefits will go to the favored Punjab province. The CPEC project will use up all of Balochistan's natural resources, and the Baloch people will get nothing from it.
The killing of CPEC workers on Saturday highlights the massive security concerns that will accompany the project. There will be 600,000 Chinese workers entering Pakistan every year, and they will be targets of jihadist terror groups. These will include Afghan Uzbeks affiliated with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).
India is boycotting Sunday's forum in China to express its objections to the CPEC plan, since it includes massive infrastructure projects in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir that will affect India-controlled Kashmir as well. According to an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman, "The international community is well aware of India’s position. No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity." Reuters and The Nation (Pakistan) and The Hindu and India Today
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-May-17 World View -- China launches 'One Belt One Road', raising objections and violent protests thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
MSF: Central American refugees entering Mexico are
regularly beaten and tortured
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
According to a new report by Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières - MSF) an estimated 500,000 migrants cross the border from Central America into Mexico each year. Many of these migrants are fleeing violence in what MSF calls the Northern Triangle of Central America (NCTA), consisting of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala.
However, their countries of origin aren't limited to those in Central America. In just a few days in September of last year, there was a surge of almost 5,000 Haitian, African and Asian migrants entering by Mexico's southern border. None of these migrants requested permission to stay in Mexico, as they all wanted to reach the United States. The huge sudden surge of migrants overwhelmed officials at US border crossings in California.
Most migrants enter Mexico in the hope of continuing through Mexico to the United States. The MSF says that as they travel through Mexico, they're often victimized by kidnapping, extortion, rape, assault, torture and murder by criminal organizations, often with the tacit approval of Mexican authorities. 68.3% of migrants and refugees surveyed by MSF reported having been victims of violence on the transit route to the United States.
In 2014, under pressure from the United States, Mexico instituted increasingly harsh border-control measures in the form of Plan Frontera Sur, a Mexican crackdown on border security funded in part by the U.S. This change in Mexico's policy has substantially increased the likelihood that the refugees will face violence, since the crackdown forces refugees to depend on human traffickers and travel on underground routes operated with impunity by organized crime.
In February, during the first month of Donald Trump's administration, Mexican officials met with US military officials to try to find common ground on immigration and other issues. The relationship between the United States and Mexico has become strained after president Trump vowed to build a wall between the two countries to keep out illegal immigrants, drug dealers and criminals and make Mexico pay for it. Details of the meeting were not released.
To resolve the humanitarian crisis, MSF calls on governments across the region – mainly El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Canada, and the US – to ensure better alternatives to detention and deportation to countries of origin where they'll be once again subject to violence. These countries should increase their formal resettlement and family reunification quotas. Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières - MSF) and Reuters (2-Feb) and AP (25-Sep-2016) and iPolitics (Canada)
Related Articles
Mexicans are seeking asylum in Canada at a rate four times greater than in 2016. The first three months of 2017 already saw more cases recorded than in the entire year 2016.
One reason for the surge is president Trump's travel ban, announced in January, which raised concern in refugees that they might be prevented from entering the United States. Instead of trying to cross the border into the US, they get on a plane that takes them to the airport in Vancouver, British Columbia, in Canada.
The second reason is that Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau invited them in. In 2016, Trudeau eliminated a visa requirement, imposed in 2008, for Mexicans traveling to Canada. The visa requirement sharply reduced the number of migrants, until it was lifted.
In addition, Trudeau decided to react to Trump's travel ban by tweeting the following on January 28:
"To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength[1] #WelcomeToCanada"
Trudeau's tweet was followed by a picture of him greeting a refugee family. The two tweets garnered over a million likes and half-a-million retweets,
The Canadian government has threatened to reinstate the visa requirement, and has told the Mexican government that it will do so if asylum claims continue to increase. Canadian Broadcasting (16-Apr) and Daily Caller (17-Apr) and Canadian Broadcasting (3-Apr)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-May-17 World View -- Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Britain's NHS patients wait for months just to get bowel cancer tests
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Obamacare continued its multi-year meltdown and death spiral on Wednesday when Aetna said it will completely leave the Obamacare business at the end of the year. According to Aetna:
"Our individual commercial products lost nearly $700 million between 2014 and 2016, and are projected to lose more than $200 million in 2017 despite a significant reduction in membership."
Obamacare would have collapsed on day one, but President Obama confiscated $716 billion in the Medicare insurance fund to providing funding for Obamacare entities. This is money that workers have been paying into the fund for decades, and Obama just blew it all away.
The signs that Obamacare was collapsing have been clear now for almost two years, as several large insurance companies, UnitedHealthCare, Humana, BlueCross BlueShield, and others, have announced partial or complete pullouts from Obamacare because of massive financial losses. Aetna had previously announced a partial pullout, but now the pullout is complete.
There have been astronomical price increases on health insurance in each year of Obamacare, and the next year is no exception. The first states to make their filings public for next year are Maryland, Virginia and Connecticut, and they're announcing premium increases of more than 20%.
Furthermore, fully 1/3 of the counties in the United States have only one insurance option available.
This is exactly what I predicted in 2009, shortly after Obamacare was first announced, when I called it a proposal of economic insanity.
The reason I knew what would happen is because I remember well what happened with President Richard Nixon's price controls in the early 1970s. They were supposed to lower the inflation rate from 4% to 2%. Instead, the inflation rate surged to 12%.
Let me repeat that. The inflation rate had been 4%. Nixon wanted to reduce it to 2% with wage-price controls. Instead, it went up to 12%.
One thing that I remember well is that farmers were killing baby chickens because chickens were price-controlled, but chicken feed was not. So if the farmers allowed the chickens to grow, then it would cost more to feed than the price Nixon's controls would allow the farmer to sell the chicken. It was an absolute disaster for the economy, and the economy didn't recover for a full decade. This shows how Nixon's controls so thoroughly destroyed the American economy, resulting it huge inflation rates.
I predicted that the same thing would happen with Obamacare, and that prediction was 100% correct. The reason I knew what would happen is because I still remembered Nixon's price controls. Health insurance inflation is now increasing at over 20% per year, and insurers are dropping out because it costs more to insure them than the premiums that they're allowed to collect.
Furthermore, millions more people than ever are effectively uninsured, either because the deductibles are so high that they can't collect insurance, or because they can't find a doctor that will accept their Medicaid insurance.
Obamacare has been a total disaster. It's destroyed the health insurance industry so thoroughly that it's causing huge rate increase, and the health insurance industry will take ten years to recover.
In 2015, I spent three months doing a detailed analysis of Obamacare, and wrote an article about it.
I was absolutely stunned by the sheer stupidity of this law. One example is "Risk Corridors." If an insurer is profitable, then the insurer pays profits into a "risk corridor fund" set up by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). If the insurer is losing money, then that insurer receives money out of the fund.
As I drilled down into this, I couldn't believe what I was reading. Why would any insurer even try to be profitable, if their profits were simply going to be confiscated? If an insurer had some extra money, they might as well spend it, since they were going to lose the money anyway.
Risk Corridors is just one example of some of the stupidest things I've ever seen, and it shows the stupidity of the people in the Obama administration who pushed this piece of crap.
So now Obamacare is totally collapsing, and the Democrats and Republicans are jockeying to see who's going to get the blame as the disaster unfolds. It makes you want to vomit, but that's nothing new in Washington these days. Reuters and Bloomberg and Daily Signal
Related Articles
According to new figures published on Thursday, patients in Britain's National Health Service have to wait several months to get diagnostic tests when they're suspected of having bowel cancer. This is one of the most lethal forms of cancer, and patients could die in the meantime.
The mainstream media in Britain rarely mentions this, and you never hear it from the American media, but Britain's National Health Service is a growing financial disaster that is near collapse. As I've been reporting since 2015, Britain's National Health Service (NHS) is facing an existential crisis, with a huge and accelerating deficit expected to reach 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) by 2020.
You would think that at least emergency situations would be covered adequately by the NHS, but the bowel cancer example shows that they're not.
The financial crisis has caused so many hospitals to close that there was a shortage of beds early this year, and patients arriving in ambulances had to remain outside the hospital in the ambulances for several hours, until a bed could be made available.
My favorite example is that if you have a toothache, then it can take a couple of months to get an appointment with a dentist, so you'd have to live with your toothache for a couple of months. Dentistry services are so bad that people are buying "do-it-yourself (DIY) dentistry kits" to take care of their whole families, as was done in the Middle Ages.
Whenever anyone talks to me about Obamacare, they tell me about how they like getting subsidized health care, or they like to be able to wait until they're actually sick before they get health insurance. Well, it's nice to get things for free, isn't it? I know that I've always loved getting things for free. It's so nice. Unfortunately, it leads to financial disaster, as happened with Nixon's price controls, with Britain's NHS, and with Obamacare.
Why doesn't Congress just pass a law outlawing hurricanes and earthquakes? Wouldn't that save a lot of lives? Guardian (London)
Related Articles
Sharon Helman, the former director of the Veterans Administration hospital in Phoenix, has had her firing overturned by a federal appellate court.
Helman has a criminal conviction for taking bribes from lobbyists, and had been director when it was revealed that veterans were dying because they couldn't get care that they were entitled to, and that Helman and other hospital directors were lying about wait times.
Like Obamacare and Britain's NHS, the Veterans Administration's health care system is a financial disaster waiting to collapse. And one reason is that even a criminally-convicted perpetrator cannot be fired. USA Today
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-May-17 World View -- Obamacare continues total meltdown as Aetna pulls out completely thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Turkish officials furious at plans to arm the Kurds
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The US military is moving quickly to get weapons into the hands of the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG), despite opposition from Turkey. The YPG will use the weapons in its fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and the effort to eject ISIS from its stronghold in Raqqa.
The weapons would include small arms, mortars, heavy machine guns, shoulder-fired weapons and ammunition. According to the military, the selected weapons will address the specific threats that ISIS poses, such as the Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDS), or car bombs of the type that ISIS has used to break up assaults.
The US considers the YPG to be the best and most effective fighting force in Syria versus ISIS. On Wednesday, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), comprising a majority of Kurdish fighters and a minority of Arab fighters from the Syrian Arab Coalition, announced that they had recaptured the town of Tabqa from ISIS. They had announced last week that they had recaptured 90% of Tabqa, and now say that have taken the rest. Tabqa is about 45 km west of Raqqa, which is the final target of the current assault. Military.com and The Hill and Rudaw (Kurdistan)
On April 25, Turkey's warplanes bombed Kurdish YPG militias that were part of the US-led coalition fighting ISIS, killing or wounding dozens of YPG fighters. Some Turkish officials are threatening additional airstrikes against Kurdish militias if they are armed by the US military.
The US military has been sending several hundred additional American troops to the region mainly to protect the Kurds from Turkey's military.
The YPG are the Kurdish militia linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has for decades been a separatist insurgence in Turkey. The PKK has been conducting number terrorist bombings and other attacks, killing more than 1,200 people in Turkey, according to Turkish media.
Turkish officials consider arming the Kurds to be an existential threat to Turkey. They say that the PKK group has begun adopting a "franchising strategy," in the same way that al-Qaeda has for years "franchised" al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and so forth.
A US army spokesman, Col. John Dorrian, tried to reassure the Turks:
"All of these items are going to be metered out to accomplish specific objectives for the isolation and liberation of Raqqa.We're going to carefully monitor what's being provided and what it's used for, and we are completely committed to make sure that it's being used for exactly the purpose that we intend."
However, Turkish politicians point out that it's particularly humiliating to Turkey that this announcement was made while Turkish officials are in Washington, preparing for a visit by Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan next week on May 16. Some are recommending that Erdogan cancel the visit.
I've said in the past, the factions fighting in Syria today -- the US, the Syrian regime, Russia, the Kurds, the Turks, and the "moderate" regime opposition -- all these factions are united today because they're all fighting the common enemy, ISIS. But once ISIS is defeated in Raqqa, ISIS's headquarters, then all bets are off. In particular, unless the American troops protecting the Kurds from the Turks are going to be stationed there forever, we can be certain that the Turks will be fighting the Kurds again. Anadolu (Turkey) and Washington Post and Hurriyet (Turkey)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-May-17 World View -- US will 'quickly' arm Kurdish militias in Syria, despite Turkey's opposition thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Generational analysis: Afghanistan war versus Iraq war
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
According to a number of reports, President Donald Trump is considering a plan to send an additional 3,000 to 5,000 American troops to Afghanistan for a new "troop surge." These would add to the 8,400 US troops already there, as well as 300 Nato troops.
The reports indicate two changes in strategy.
First, the troop levels would be heavily conditioned on the ability of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to weed out ineffective military commanders and reduce corruption,
Second, the troop surge would be combined with a new military strategy to threaten the Taliban with defeat so that they would return to the negotiating table.
Both of these conditions are laughable. Afghanistan is entering a generational Awakening era and Ghani has less political control than ever over dissident forces. And the Taliban will never agree to a peace agreement. They may attend so-called peace talks, but only for the purpose of providing political cover for continuing the war, and for conducting further terrorist attacks, particularly against Shia Muslims. This is similar to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad who uses peace conferences and peace agreements as political cover to continue dropping barrel bombs with chemical weapons on innocent Sunni Muslim women and children. Military.com and Washington Post and Business Insider
Related Articles
I've written about this a number of times, starting in 2009, when President Obama was considering what strategy to use in Afghanistan. He eventually decided on a "surge" in Afghanistan leading to a troop strength of 100,000, but it was a complete farce, with repeated flip-flops on troop withdrawals, and laughable attempts at peace talks with the Taliban.
President Bush's 2007 troop "surge" into Iraq was highly successful. Al-Qaeda in Iraq was driven out and the country was at peace, although many claim that the peace was squandered by President Obama's withdrawal two years later.
So it's very tempting to try to repeat the Iraq troop surge in Afghanistan. In fact, Obama did try that, with complete failure, as I predicted in 2009. So now Trump is considering the same thing and the prediction that it will end in total failure is the same. To understand this, let's look at the difference between the Iraq and Afghan wars from the point of view of generational theory.
Both countries are in generational Awakening eras, having had relative recent generational crisis wars -- the Iran/Iraq war of 1980-88, and the Afghanistan civil war of 1991-96. Both of these wars were horrendously bloody, ending in a genocidal climax that brought peace to the respective countries for a time.
But the Iran/Iraq war was an external war, with an external enemy, Iran. In fact, in Iraq's last two crisis wars -- the Great Iraqi Revolution of 1920 and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, Sunni and Shia Iraqis banded together against the foreign enemy, the British in 1920 and the Iranians in the 1980s. They did not fight each other. Thus, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and al-Qaeda in Iraq were able to stir up sectarian violence for a while, but al-Zarqawi had to import fighters from Jordan and Saudi Arabia because the Iraqis refused to fight. Eventually the Iraqis themselves turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq, and threw them out. My 2007 analysis of the war in Iraq was the best analysis written by anyone at that time, and explained all this in detail.
Even today, Iraq is fighting an external war. The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is a coalition of foreign jihadists from 86 countries around the world, most of whom came to Syria to fight Bashar al-Assad. Right now the Iraqi army (ironically with the help of the Iranians) is attacking the last of Iraq's ISIS fighters in Mosul. There have been some flare-ups of Iraqi Shias fighting Iraqi Sunnis, but that's not the main thing that's happening in Iraq.
But none of that is true of the Afghan war. The 1991-1996 war was a civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in Pakistan -- which is in a generational Crisis era, and in which the Taliban are conducting regular terrorist acts.
The fact that the Iraq war was an external war, while the Afghan war was a civil war means that the two wars have absolutely nothing in common. To apply the strategy of one of these wars to the other is disastrously wrong.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The Pashtuns still have scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. The Taliban may sit in on peace talks to gain political cover but they will never, under any circumstances, agree to a peace deal, no matter how large the American troop surge. To believe anything else is pure fantasy. US News and Vox and Politico
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-May-17 World View -- Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Syria refuses to permit foreign monitors
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Every few months, Russia or the United Nations announces a new peace plan to end the war in Syria. Each time, the mainstream media credulously reports that there's finally "hope" that the war will end. Each time, I always use the word "farcical" to describe the peace plan, because the plan never even makes sense. And each time, the plan falls apart within a few weeks.
In January, just a mere four months ago, I described the peace plan being signed at that time as follows:
"What's wrong with this picture: There's a civil war in Syria between the Shia/Alawites versus the Sunnis. On Tuesday, Russia, Iran and Turkey signed a peace agreement.The thing that's wrong with this picture is that nobody from Syria signed the agreement. It was an agreement among outsiders, and did not include any parties who are nominally the opponents in Syria's civil war.
The peace talks were held in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan. Syrian civil war peace talks in the past were held in Geneva, so having these talks in Astana gives that "this time it's different" feeling to the meeting. ...
However the main reason, according to analysts, that this time it's different is that Russia is making it clear that it's willing to enforce a peace in Syria, so that it will get the credit for bringing about peace."
Exactly the same description applies to the peace agreement signed on Friday. The meetings were being held again in Astana, and the same three (non-Syrian) parties signed the agreement, while the parties that are fighting on the ground did not sign it.
In this peace agreement, there will be four "safe zones" or "de-escalation areas." The safe zones will be surrounded by "security zones," which will be patrolled to ensure the peace.
Here are some excerpts from the text of the agreement:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey as guarantors of the observance of the ceasefire regime in the Syrian Arab Republic (hereinafter referred to as “Guarantors”): ... have agreed on the following.1.the following de-escalation areas shall be created with the aim to put a prompt end to violence, improve the humanitarian situation and create favorable conditions to advance political settlement of the conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic: [listing areas in Idlib, Homs, Ghouta, southern Syria]. ...
The creation of the de-escalation areas and security zones is a temporary measure, the duration of which will initially be 6 months and will be automatically extended on the basis of consensus of the Guarantors.
2.Within the lines of the de-escalation areas:
—hostilities between the conflicting parties (the government of the Syrian Arab Republic and the armed opposition groups that have joined and will join the ceasefire regime) with the use of any kinds of weapons, including aerial assets, shall be ceased; ...
The functioning of the checkpoints and observation posts as well as the administration of the security zones shall be ensured by the forces of the Guarantors by consensus. Third parties might be deployed, if necessary, by consensus of the Guarantors. ...
As usual, this is laughable. The Syrian regime and the armed rebels have not signed on to this agreement, but hostilities between them "with the use of any kinds of weapons, including aerial assets, shall be ceased." You've got to be joking.
In fact, as in the case of every other "peace agreement," there is no intention that the fighting stop. The Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad reserves the right to continue bombing any places that contain people they consider to be terrorists, and that includes schools, hospitals and marketplaces, using barrel bombs or any other kind of bomb. The opposition rebel groups have also reserved the right to fight the regime in case of what they view is any regime violation of the agreement. And of course the al-Qaeda linked al-Nusra Front, and so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) are not included in the deal in any way.
According to US Defense Secretary James Mattis:
"It's all in process right now. Who is going to be ensuring they're safe? Who is signing up for it? Who is specifically to be kept out of them? All these details are to be worked out, and we're engaged."
According to the text of the agreement, the maps of the four safe zones have not yet been drawn up, and won't be drawn up until June. Gulf News and The Hill and Arab News
Related Articles
The only significant difference between this and previous agreements is that this agreement specifies that military forces will be deployed to guarantee the security of the safe zones. The assumption is that these will be international forces, since none of the parties doing the fighting in Syria can be trusted.
So on Monday, Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallem announced:
"We do not accept a role for the United Nations or international forces to monitor the agreement. ...If any violation takes place, the Syrian army will be prepared to respond in a decisive manner."
So who's going to respond if the Syrian regime commits a violation? Once again, this is completely laughable.
It's almost beyond belief how much destruction that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has caused. He drops barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons onto civilian neighborhoods, or uses Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Tens of thousands of young jihadists came to Syria from 86 countries around to world to fight al-Assad, creating ISIS. Al-Assad has driven millions of Syrians out of their homes, into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Europe.
So now we have this Russian proposal for four "safe zones" containing all the Sunni men, women and children that al-Assad has been trying to exterminate for the last six years. The Arab media is calling them "prisons" or "concentration camps," because all of these Sunni groups will be trapped in there, unable to leave. And who will be guarding these safe zones? The Syrian army, led by Bashar al-Assad, who would like to exterminate all their residents.
As I've said many times, there is no hope of this war ending, as long as Bashar al-Assad is in power. AFP and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and SANA (Damascus) and Arab News
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-May-17 World View -- Russia, Iran and Turkey announce yet another farcical new Syria peace plan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
China's relations deteriorate with both South and North Korea
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
As two ancient civilizations and neighbors, China and Korea have had many disagreements over the centuries, and tensions and wars have been the norm. However, during the last century, they've been united by their common enmity to Japan before World War II, and to the United States after World War II.
Now as both countries go deeper into a generational Crisis era, like most countries today, they're both becoming increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic. They both frequently continue to express their hatred of Japan and the United States, but increasingly this nationalism is causing them to turn on each other.
China has numerous concerns about North Korea, including these:
Tensions between the two countries have been growing almost continually since 2006, when DPRK (North Korea, the "Democratic People's Republic of Korea") conducted its first nuclear bomb test. At that time, Chinese state media said that "China resolutely opposes DPRK's nuclear test," and quoted China's Foreign Ministry as saying:
"The DPRK ignored universal opposition of the international community and flagrantly conducted the nuclear test on Oct. 9. The Chinese government is resolutely opposed to it."
China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing talked over telephone with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and they agreed that North Korea's nuclear tests must be firmly opposed. The United Nations Security Council held an emergency session to opposed the DPRK nuclear test.
Since then, countries around the world have strongly and vehemently opposed North Korea's nuclear program. This has included China, which has applied economic sanctions to North Korea, most recently restricting coal imports from North Korea.
North Korea's leaders say that they fear an invasion by the United States, and they're known to believe that the only protection they have against such an invasion is the development of nuclear weapons. They believe that the West would not have invaded either Libya or Iraq if these countries hadn't given up their nuclear weapons development.
On Wednesday, North Korean state media KCNA published a scathing attack on China:
"A string of absurd and reckless remarks are now heard from big neighboring countries, perhaps frightened at the U.S. blackmail and war racket, every day only to render the acute situation of the Korean peninsula more strained.The People's Daily and the Global Times, widely known as media speaking for the official stand of the Chinese party and government, have recently carried commentaries asserting that the DPRK's access to nukes poses a threat to the national interests of China. They shifted the blame for the deteriorated relations between the DPRK and China onto the DPRK and raised lame excuses for the base acts of dancing to the tune of the U.S.
Those commentaries claimed that the DPRK poses a threat to "the security in the northeastern region of China" by conducting nuclear tests less than 100 km away from its border with China. They even talked rubbish that the DPRK strains the situation in Northeast Asia and "offers the U.S. excuses for deploying more strategic assets" in the region.
Not content with such paradox, the commentaries asserted that to remain averse to the DPRK's access to nukes is to preserve interests common to the U.S. and China, calling for slapping harsher sanctions against the DPRK in order to avert a war which would bring danger to China. ...
This is just a wanton violation of the independent and legitimate rights, dignity and supreme interests of the DPRK and, furthermore, constitutes an undisguised threat to an honest-minded neighboring country which has a long history and tradition of friendship. ...
Some theorists of China are spouting a load of nonsense that the DPRK's access to nukes strains the situation in Northeast Asia and offers the U.S. an excuse for beefing up its strategic assets in the region. But the U.S. had activated its strategy for dominating Asia-Pacific long before the DPRK had access to nukes, and its primary target is just China.
China should acknowledge in an honest manner that the DPRK has just contributed to protecting peace and security of China, foiling the U.S. scheme for aggression by waging a hard fight in the frontline of the showdown with the U.S. for more than seven decades, and thank the DPRK for it. ...
One must clearly understand that the DPRK's line of access to nukes for the existence and development of the country can neither be changed nor shaken and that the DPRK will never beg for the maintenance of friendship with China, risking its nuclear program which is as precious as its own life, no matter how valuable the friendship is. ...
China had better ponder over the grave consequences to be entailed by its reckless act of chopping down the pillar of the DPRK-China relations."
China's state media responded directly:
"The KCNA opinion piece contains no new substantive information, except mentioning the names of China, People's Daily, and Global Times and expressing a stronger disgruntling. It did not mention China's support for the United Nations sanctions against North Korea. Nor did it state Pyongyang's next step to take. Overall, the editorial is nothing more than a hyper-aggressive piece completely filled with nationalistic passion.Pyongyang obviously is grappling with some form of irrational logic over its nuclear program. ...
Beijing needs to make China’s standing and position very clear to Pyongyang, either on an official or grassroots level. It needs to address with Pyongyang its concerns and bottom line. It should also make Pyongyang aware that it will react in unprecedented fashion if Pyongyang conducts another nuclear test. Beijing should not hesitate in delivering this message, and there is certainly no need to debate this issue back and forth with Pyongyang."
Probably the most important sentence is: "[Beijing] should also make Pyongyang aware that it will react in unprecedented fashion if Pyongyang conducts another nuclear test."
So we have the following situation:
The Diplomat and Xinhua (9-Oct-2006) and Rodong Sinmun (North Korea) and Global Times (Beijing) and Times of India
Related Articles
China's relations with North Korea have been deteriorating steadily with North Korea for over a decade, but China's relations with South Korea have crashed almost overnight.
Just two years ago, there was a "brand new honeymoon" in relations between China and South Korea. President Park Geun-hye visited Beijing on September 3, 2015, during the commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. Park was treated like visiting royalty, and even had a private lunch with China's president Xi Jinping.
Then, in July 2016, Park announced her decision to deploy the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system on South Korean soil. This was specifically a reaction to ballistic missile and nuclear threats from North Korea, but it infuriated China because THAAD's powerful radar could also give early warning to the United States of a pre-emptive missile attack by China on the United States.
On February 28 of this year, news broke that the Lotte Group, a South Korean multinational conglomerate, had agreed to a land swap that would allow THAAD to be deployed on a piece of land previously owned by the company. This enraged the Chinese, who furiously started imposing economic sanctions on South Korea, particularly targeting Lotte Department Stores in China and South Korea with a boycott.
So now China is imposing economic boycotts on both North and South Korea, for different but related reasons. There's another irony to the situation: Even though China has an economic boycott on South Korean products, China is increasing its imports of petroleum products from South Korea, with an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. The reason is because there's a supply shortage of energy products in China, exacerbated by the fact that China is no longer importing coal from North Korea.
These issues are all very recent, but there are also deeply historical issues separating China and Korea. Since 2003, China has been developing a "Northeastern History Project" with the intention of proving that regions that have historically been recognized as belonging to Korea's history and culture, on China's northeastern border with Korea, are really all Chinese. In other words, just as China is confiscating regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines in the South China Sea, China is also planning to confiscate regions historically belonging to Korea.
So there may be ephemeral ups and downs in the relations between China and each of the two Koreas, but these two civilizations have been around for millennia, and the norm is very tense relations, usually leading to war.
Deng Xiaoping, China's leader in the 1980s, said, "Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership."
This has been China's strategy to implement the "China dream." As I've been describing for years, China has been using a "salami-slicing strategy" of using military force to annex one portion after another of regions of the South China Sea historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. By doing so gradually, China's hopes to prevent any counter-action. At the same time, China has been vastly building up its military, on land, in space and on the sea, but then pretending that they're a tiny power compared to the United States. In this way, they follow Deng's advice, hoping to surprise the world with their military strength in the same way that Adolf Hitler surprised Britain.
Unfortunately, China keeps getting bitten by mosquitoes that send it off-course. China was enormously humiliated by the dramatic 2016 ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague declaring China's claims and activities in the South China Sea to be illegal. This hasn't stopped China, of course, but it's exposed to the world the danger in allowing China's salami-slicing strategy to continue.
Another mosquito is North Korea, which has put China's entire foreign policy into a tailspin. Instead of being able to blame all the world's problems on the United States, while it continues its vast military buildup in obscurity, China has to cope with the fact that North Korea is more a danger to China than it is to the United States. Even worse, the North Korean situation is directly responsible for the THAAD deployment in South Korea, which could never have occurred otherwise.
The fact is that China making enemies of one country after another. China has a few allies, such as Cambodia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and others, but China is surrounded by historic enemies, including Japan, Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Russia, and many others. When China finally decides that it's time to declare war on the United States, they will not be fighting the United States alone. The Diplomat and Yonhap News (Seoul) and SinoNK (3-Mar-2012) and The Atlantic (15-Apr-2013) and Council on Foreign Relations
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-May-17 World View -- Ancient tensions flare between China and North Korea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Macedonia comments reveal acrimonious divisions in the Western Balkans
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Two weeks ago, thousands of ethnic nationalist Macedonians surrounded Macedonia's parliament building in the capital city Skopje, and then stormed the building, as we reported at the time. More than 100 people were injured, including protestors, policemen and lawmakers.
The protests have been continuing, although there's been no further violence, but there are concerns of more violence when a political deadline passes in ten days.
The protests were triggered when an ethnic Albanian, Talat Xhaferi, was elected Speaker of the Parliament. Xhaferi was also a leader of the Albanian anti-government rebellion in a brief Albanian-Macedonian non-crisis civil war in 2001, raising new fears about a renewal of the civil war.
Macedonia's politics became chaotic after December 11 of last year, when an election was held with the two major parties, the SDSM (Social Democratic Union of Macedonia), led by Zoran Zaev, and the VMRO-DPMNE (Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization), led by Nikola Gruevski, winning an almost equal number of seats in the parliament. (Paragraph updated, 7-May)
The SDSM party broke the deadlock by forming a coalition with several Albanian parties, thus giving themselves a parliamentary majority, controlling at least 67 of the 120 seats in parliament. However, the VMRO party under Prime Minister Gruevski have been governing the country for more than a decade, and were reluctant to give up power. The situation was further complicated by the fact that if Gruevski loses power, then he's liable to go to jail over accusations of mass-wiretapping of opposition politicians. Two years ago, a wiretapping scandal revealed that the government had tapped the phones of over 26,000 people, including politicians, journalists, and civil society activists.
Since December the government has been in chaos, since the pro-Macedonian president, Gjorge Ivanov, refused to recognize the SDSM government, and allow Zaev to become prime minister. He claimed that doing so would "Albanianize" Macedonia by allowing wider official use of the Albanian language, which was a demand of the Albanian parties in return for joining the SDSM coalition.
So two weeks ago, the SDSM and Albanian coalition in the parliament selected ethnic Albanian Talat Xhaferi as speaker of the parliament. This selection infuriated Ivanov and the nationalist Macedonian supporters of the VMRO party, triggering the bloody riots. The protests have been continuing since then, with thousands of VMRO supporters turning out in Skopje on Tuesday, although there has been no more violence.
On Thursday, Xhaferi sent a letter to Ivanov, noting that a "parliament majority has been established" and that he expects the president to act according to the constitution, and give control of the government to the SDSM, and allow Zoran Zaev to become prime minister, putting an end to more than a decade in power for the VMRO.
Ivanov nas not yet confirmed that he received the letter. He has ten days to respond to the letter. No matter what action or inaction he takes on that day, there may be more violence. Balkan Insight and European Council On Foreign Relations and BBC
Related Articles
The article on Macedonia that I wrote two weeks ago was cross-posted as usual on the Breitbart National Security site, and received dozens of the most acrimonious and vitriolic comments that any of my articles have ever received. These comments came from all sides -- especially the Macedonians, the Greeks, the Albanians and the Bulgarians.
Greek commenters were particularly infuriated by my brief history of Alexander the Great, referring to him as "the most famous leader in Macedonia's history." Here's a brief summary of the comments by Greek readers:
Macedonians reject all of this:
There's an interesting question here: How long do two population groups have to be separated before they can be called separate ethnic groups? It may (or may not) be true that Macedonians were Bulgarians in the Middle Ages, but that was many centuries ago. Having been apart from the Bulgarians for centuries, today they're recognized as a distinct Macedonian ethnic group by almost every nation outside of Greece, and they're recognized by the United Nations and European Union as Macedonians.
As for Alexander the Great, today's Macedonians and Greeks each claim him as their own. This is an issue that will probably never be settled peacefully.
A number of Albanian commenters criticized my use of the phrase "Greater Albania," a movement to enlarge Albania by including ethnic Albanian populations from neighboring countries, including Macedonia and Kosovo. Some claimed that no such movement exists, although that claim appears not to be true, as can be determined by googling the words "Greater Albania." However, other comments gave a more nuanced explanation, that the phrase "Greater Albania" was invented by the Serbs and the Russians to cover up a movement for a "Greater Serbia."
One commenter said, "We Albanian Muslims live in peace with Christian Albanians. It's only the Serbs and Macedonians who we cannot live in peace with us due to historical territorial claims."
There is some truth to the claim of meddling by the Russians. The Russian government is backing the VMRO and Nikola Gruevski, and Russia's foreign ministry issued a statement in March:
"With active cooperation of the EU and NATO officials, an 'Albanian platform' created in Tirana [Albania's capital city], in the office of the (Albanian) prime minister, is being imposed on Macedonians."
My article on Macedonia is turning out to be one of the most acrimoniously contentious that I've ever written, with extreme ideologues on both sides posting vitriolic comments. My conclusion from this situation is that history is repeating itself in the sense that the Balkans region is one of the most explosive regions in the world.
The Albanians and Turks are mostly Muslim. The Macedonians, Bulgarians, Serbs, Greeks and Russians are all mostly Orthodox Christian. The Muslim and Orthodox Christian civilizations have had repeated massive wars for centuries, centered in the Balkans, Crimea, and the Caucasus. And as I've been saying for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that there's going to be another massive civilizational war between Muslims and Orthodox Christians.
The conflict between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians, with outside "meddling" from Russia, Serbia, Greece, Albania, and the EU, is a microcosm of this coming massive civilizational war, which is why this is an important story. And there have been reports of increasing use of social media in the Balkans to promote neo-Nazism and white supremacy.
There has been speculation by me and others about where WW III would start -- South China Sea, Kashmir, Mideast, etc. But now I would have to say that the Balkans is moving close to the top of the list. EurActiv and Reuters (2-Mar) and Balkan Insight
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-May-17 World View -- European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Narendra Modi's 'demonetization' program results in more Kashmir bank robberies
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The conflict between Indian security forces and Kashmiris took another leap higher this week as a force of 3,000 men from security forces began a massive counter-militant operation, the largest seen in decades. Soldiers, paramilitary troopers and policemen started cordon operations and house-to-house searches in 20 villages in and around the restive Shopian district in southern Kashmir, beginning on Thursday.
The operation follows a terrorist attack in Shopian on Tuesday, when militants attacked a police station and took off with five service rifles. On Wednesday, there were two armed bank robberies in the region, where militants took off with thousands of dollars. After the counter-militant operation began on Thursday, clashes erupted between Kashmiri youth pelting stones at security forces.
According to one senior police officer, "It is impossible to capture the militants, but we hope there will be contact [exchange of fire] with them in the course of the day."
Clashes between Kashmiris and security forces increased significantly after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the leader of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed by Indian police fire. Security forces responded harshly to the violence by using pellet guns, with the result that 1,000 people lost their vision in one eye and five were blinded. Thousands of Kashmiri youths were arrested.
The big surge in violence finally subsided in November, and Indian officials decided that their harsh reprisals had been successful in subduing the violence. However, it now appears that what was subduing the violence was the cold weather, and now that the weather is warming again, the violence is increasing significantly.
As I've written several times, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters, Kashmir is repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.
As the weather has warmed in the last few weeks, the violence has been increasing. Generational Dynamics predicts that Kashmir is returning to full-scale war, re-fighting the extremely bloody partition war of 1947. Exactly when this full-scale war will occur cannot be predicted, but there are still several long, hot months of summer this year, and there is no hope that the clashes will subside until, perhaps, when winter arrives again.
Many people are comparing the current Kashmir violence with temporary violence that occurred in the 1990s. But there are significant differences between today's violence and the 1990s violence.
In the 1990s, there were still plenty of survivors of the bloody 1947 partition war, and these people would have held their children back, saying that it's better to suffer a little discrimination than to get killed.
Today, in a generational Crisis era, young people seem to have no fear of being killed. This represents a significant change of mood. Even more alarming, for the first time, young girls are joining the boys in throwing stones. This change in mood is a significant difference from the 1990s.
Another difference is that today, local Kashmiri militants are collaborating with militants from Pakistan terror groups, including Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Toiba. The foreign terrorist supply weapons and get advance information about topography, routes, movement of Indian troops. This makes the separatist militants far more dangerous than they were 20 years ago. BBC and Hindustan Times and Geo TV (Pakistan)
Related Articles
As we described above, India's massive counter-militant operation began just after militant attacks on a police stations and two armed bank robberies. During the past seven months, there have been 13 incidents of bank robbery, with militants looting hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The number of bank robberies has gone up started increasing dramatically in November of last year, and many analysts relate the increase to the 'demonetization' program announced by India's prime minister Narendra Modi at that time. The policy declared high value 500-1000 rupee notes to be worthless, with the stated objective of reducing corruption. However, the policy was something of a disaster, since many people had no valid cash to purchase necessities like food.
Shortly after the 'demonetization' policy went into effect, India's defense minister Manohar Parrikar bragged that the demonetization program has substantially reduced the amount of violence in Kashmir, by reducing incidents of stone-pelting. According to Parrikar:
"Earlier, there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting [on security forces in Kashmir] and Rs 1,000 for doing something else. PM has brought terror funding to zero. In the last few days after PM's daring move there hasn't been stone pelting on security forces. I congratulate PM for it."
It's believed that separatist activists were paying stone-pelters in counterfeit notes that had been printed in Pakistan. By making all 500-1000 rupee notes worthless, the counterfeit notes also became worthless.
Parrikar is correct that the number of stone-throwing incidents fell at that time but, as we stated above, the reduction in violence was actually caused by the cold winter weather, and now that the weather is warming again, stone-throwing incidents are recurring.
However, another outcome of the demonetization program seems more certain, following the "Law of Unintended Consequences." With the counterfeit 500-1000 Rs notes worthless, militants needed to get cash from another source, and that other source has apparently turned out to be bank robbery. India Today and Rising Kashmir and Kashmir Reader
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-May-17 World View -- Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Europeans blame China and 'the freeway effect' for the migrant crisis
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The European Union is working on an emergency plan in case a "serious crisis" develops this summer, which would be the situation is 200,000 or more refugees cross the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy.
In 2016, a record 181,000 migrants crossed from North Africa to Italy via the Mediterranean Sea. From January 1 to April 23 of this year, 36,851 migrants were recorded as crossing -- a 45% increase over the same period last year. Even more concerning is the fact that summer hasn't even arrived, and when it does, a huge surge of migrants is expected. The concerns are that total for the year may be close to 300,000.
According to the Dublin Agreement that defines the principles of the European Union, member states are expected to show "solidarity" in managing the refugee problem, so that the entire burden doesn't fall on Italy. However, there's little agreement on what the term "solidarity" means. The current requirements are that refugees should be distributed to all 28 member states. The target last year for relocation was 160,000 asylum seekers, but because several member states object to having any asylum seekers at all relocated to their countries, only about 15,000 people have been distributed so far in the last two years.
One proposed solution is that cash will be used to encourage countries to meet their quotas. The proposal is that each country will be paid €60,000 for every asylum seeker they take in above their assigned quota, and those not meeting their quotas would be charged the same amount.
On Thursday, the European Commission issued a press release proposing "a sustainable and fair Common European Asylum System." According to Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU Commissioner for Migration and Home Affairs:
"If the current refugee crisis has shown one thing, it is that the status quo of our Common European Asylum System is not an option. The time has come for a reformed and more equitable system, based on common rules and a fairer sharing of responsibility. With the proposed reform of the Dublin system, [and the creation of a] true European Agency for Asylum, today we are taking a major step in the right direction and putting in place the European-level structures and tools necessary for a future-proof comprehensive system. We will now put all our efforts into working side-by-side with the European Parliament and Member States. We must turn these proposals into reality as swiftly as possible."
If the history of the past two years shows anything, it's that no current proposal has any chance of working. If move than 200,000 migrants from Libya reach the shores of Italy this year, it truly will be a crisis. Der Spiegel and EU Observer (27-Mar) and European Commission and Malta Today
Decades ago, when America was first building a national highway system, people talked about "the freeway effect." If some particular auto route was always jammed with heavy traffic, then a limited access superhighway (also called a "freeway") would be built to replace it. However, with the availability of the new freeway, a lot more people would start driving, and so pretty soon the traffic would be just as bad as ever. That was "the freeway effect."
The same kind of thing is happening in the Mediterranean. After some well-publicized drowning of hundreds of migrants in capsized boats, the European Union has made enormous efforts rescue migrants who might otherwise drown. Furthermore, the EU's Frontex organization has been joined by dozens of NGOs (non-governmental organizations) that are also rescuing migrants crossing the Mediterranean. As greater efforts have been made, more migrants have been encouraged to risk making the trip, contributing to the worsening of the migrant crisis, and creating a "taxi service to Europe."
A scandal is brewing over the NGOs. Carmelo Zuccaro, an Italian prosecutor is claiming to have evidence that some of the NGOs are colluding with the human traffickers who send the migrants out on flimsy boats to be rescued, with the suggestion that some of the NGOs are encouraging the increase in migrant traffic in order to receive more funding.
The human traffickers have become increasingly unscrupulous in taking advantage of the massive rescue efforts. For example, they've been packing up to 170 people onto inflatable rubber dinghies that can only safely transport 15 people. The engines have only enough fuel to make it out of Libyan waters, and the smugglers have been relying on the rescue efforts by Frontex and the NGOs to save the migrants from drowning. However, over 1,000 migrants have already lost their lives this year alone in the Mediterranean.
Some EU officials are blaming China for the problem.
In a story about migrants early last year, I reported that human traffickers were importing massive numbers of rubber dinghies manufactured in China, transshipped through Malta.
Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU Commissioner for Migration and Home Affairs, whom we quoted earlier, is visiting China this week, and made this statement:
"The rubber boats used by the smuggler networks in the Mediterranean are fabricated somewhere in China, they are exported to the countries in Asia and they are used by them. So I requested the support and cooperation from the Chinese authorities in order to track down this business and dismantle it, because what they produce is not serving the common good of the country. It is a very dangerous tool in the hands of ruthless smugglers."
There's no word on whether the Chinese government is going to help out Europe by shutting down its rubber dinghy business. Reuters and New Arab (23-Apr) and Reuters
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-May-17 World View -- Italy prepares for possible Mediterranean refugee crisis this summer thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Donald Trump and Mahmoud Abbas commit to work for
historic Mideast peace deal
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Meeting in the White House on Wednesday, president Donald Trump met with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, and agreed to work together to reach a historic peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians.
In the briefing that followed the meeting, Trump recalled that Abbas had participated in the development of the Oslo Peace Accords in 1994:
"Almost 24 years ago, it was on these grounds that President Abbas stood with a courageous peacemaker, then-Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Here at the White House, President Abbas signed a Declaration of Principles -- very important -- which laid the foundation for peace between the Israelis and Palestinians.The President -- Mr. President, you [Abbas] signed your name to the first Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. You remember that well, right? And I want to support you in being the Palestinian leader who signs his name to the final and most important peace agreement that brings safety, stability, and prosperity to both peoples and to the region."
Trump didn't mention what a disastrous failure the Oslo peace accords have been. Another thing that Trump neglected to mention was that year later, in 1995, Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli nationalist who opposed the Oslo peace accords.
Trump's statement concluded:
"I welcome President Abbas here today as a demonstration of ... that very special partnership that we all need to make it all work. And I look forward to welcoming him back as a great marker of progress and, ultimately, toward the signing of a document with the Israelis and with Israel toward peace. We want to create peace between Israel and the Palestinians. We will get it done. We will be working so hard to get it done. It's been a long time, but we will be working diligently. And I think there's a very, very good chance, and I think you feel the same way."
Abbas then responded with his own statement:
"Mr. President, we believe that we are capable and able to bring about success to our efforts because, Mr. President, you have the determination and you have the desire to see it become to fruition and to become successful. And we, Mr. President, inshallah, God willing, we are coming into a new opportunity, a new horizon that would enable us to bring about peace in that regard. ...Mr. President, it’s about time for Israel to end its occupation of our people and of our land after 50 years. We are the only remaining people in the world that still live under occupation. We are aspiring and want to achieve our freedom, our dignity, and our right to self-determination. And we also want for Israel to recognize the Palestinian state just as the Palestinian people recognize the state of Israel.
Mr. President, I affirm to you that we are raising our youth, our children, our grandchildren on a culture of peace. And we are endeavoring to bring about security, freedom and peace for our children to live like the other children in the world, along with the Israeli children in peace, freedom and security.
Mr. President, I bring with me today the message of the suffering of my people, as well as their aspiration and hope -- the hopes and aspirations of the Palestinian people from the Holy Land, from that land where the three monotheist religions thrived, and the Jewish faith, the Christian faith and the Muslim faith, where they all coexist together to foster it in an environment of security, peace and stability, and love for all."
Abbas said that "we are raising our youth, our children, our grandchildren on a culture of peace," but the Palestinian president, born in 1935, neglected to mention that polls indicate that two-thirds of the Palestinian people want him to resign, and consider him irrelevant and unable to do anything to help the Palestinians.
It's the young people today who will not tolerate a peace settlement of any kind. Many young Israelis consider it to be an almost Messianic mission to build settlements in the West Bank and to defend them with their lives.
And the young Palestinians have been given the ironic name "Oslo Generation," because they've grown up since the 1994 Oslo agreement and have seen nothing come out of it, and so have no respect for Abbas and other Palestinian leaders.
So even if Trump and Abbas and Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu did hammer out some kind of agreement, it would be worthless, because the young Israelis and young Palestinians would not honor it. NBC News and WAFA (Palestine) and White House
Related Articles
One of the most well-known characters in Greek Mythology was Sisyphus. In his life he double-crossed Zeus, the king of the gods, as well as the gods of the underworld. For his deceit and trickery, he was condemned to eternal punishment. He would forever roll a massive boulder up to the top of a steep hill, but whenever he neared the top, the rock would roll down to the bottom, and he'd have to start over again.
So anyway, former president Jimmy Carter once said in Jerusalem that one of the deep regrets of his presidency was that he had not been able to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There were numerous repeated attempts at Mideast peace by Bill Clinton, George Bush and Barack Obama.
I posted my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1, 2003, when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," which described the details of a two-state solution. I wrote that Generational Dynamics predicts that the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Here's what I wrote:
"We are now in the early stages of replaying the extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is awaiting a generational change.There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon and Yassir Arafat.
These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.
The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is this: Be careful what you wish for.)"
Since that time, Yassir Arafat died, and was replaced by Mahmoud Abbas, who was also a survivor of the 1948 war and remembered its horrors.
Since 2006, there have been five wars involving Israel and Palestinians: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and July-August 2014.
In addition, the "Arab Spring" began in 2011, resulting in wars in Libya, Yemen and Syria, and unrest in Egypt and Lebanon. Furthermore, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have surged as a result of the genocidal acts of Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad directed at Sunnis. Each day we move closer to a war that will engulf the whole region, between Arabs and Jews, between Sunnis and Shias, and between various ethnic groups such as Kurds versus Turks.
With wars occurring today across the entire Mideast, can anyone seriously believe today that some piece of paper signed by Abbas, Trump and Netanyahu would actually bring about a new Mideast where Israelis and Palestinians are living together side by side in peace? If there is, I'd like to give him a good deal on selling him the Brooklyn Bridge. Jerusalem Post
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-May-17 World View -- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Kurdish forces in Syria take Tabqa city en route to Raqqa
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
There are three different sets of forces operating in Syria: The Syrian regime + Russia, Turkey + the Free Syrian Army (FSA) comprised mainly of ethnic Syrian Turkmens, and the US-led coalition + the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) comprised mostly of Kurds from the People's Protection Units (YPG). Today, these three forces are united by their common enemy, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
On Tuesday, the US-backed SDF said that it had recaptured 90% of the city of Tabqa from ISIS. Tabqa is 45 km west of Raqqa, which is the ISIS stronghold, and the main objective of the current operations to defeat ISIS. ISIS captured Raqqa in January 2014.
The victory is significant because it further establishes the Kurdish YPG as the most effective fighting force in the region against ISIS. Al Jazeera
As we reported last week, Turkey's warplanes in Syria struck Kurdish militias known as the People's Protection Units, or YPG, who are allies of the US-led coalition fighting ISIS. The YPG said that Turkey's airstrikes, which took place on Tuesday of last week, killed 20 of its fighters and wounded 18 others, and caused extensive damage to YPG headquarters and nearby civilian property.
The US military considers the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), comprised mostly of YPG Kurds, to be the most effective fighting force in the region against ISIS, but the YPG has links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has conducted numerous bloody terror attacks in Turkey, and an on-and-off civil war for decades. As a result, the US considers the YPG to be an ally, while Turkey considers them to be an enemy.
To protect the Kurds from the Turks, US troops in armored vehicles on Friday started patrolling Kurdish areas in Syria as a kind of "buffer" between the Kurds and Turkey. Video from the area shows vehicles with US and Kurdish flags together.
A statement from the US military says:
"Coalition forces are conducting joint patrols along the northeastern Syria-Turkey border to assess reports from both the SDF and Turkey regarding skirmishes and cross-border fires between their respective security forces.The patrols’ purpose is to discourage escalation and violence between two of our most trusted (counter-ISIS) partners and reinforce the U.S. commitment to both Turkey and the SDF in their fight against ISIS.
We ask both of our partners to focus their efforts on ISIS. ISIS poses the greatest threat to peace and stability in the region, and indeed the entire world."
Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan says that he'll meet with President Trump on May 16th, and he'll say that US support for the YPG Kurds must end, and that the Turkish attacks on YPG Kurds will continue:
"This needs to end. Otherwise we will have to take the matter into our own hands. It is better for them to live in fear than us being worried [about terror attacks from the PKK]."
Erdogan said that Turkey needs to "drain the swamp," and that Turkey's military will solve the (PKK) terrorism problem by itself if the US refuses to do so.
As I've said in the past, the factions fighting in Syria today -- the US, the Syrian regime, Russia, the Kurds, the Turks, and the "moderate" regime opposition -- all these factions are united today because they're all fighting the common enemy, ISIS. But once ISIS is defeated in Raqqa, ISIS's headquarters, then all bets are off. AP and Anadolu (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Turkey)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-May-17 World View -- US military moves to protect Syrian Kurds from Turkey's military thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Japan moves from 'self-defense' to 'collective self-defense'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Japan's largest naval destroyer, the JS Izumo, has left port on a mission to escort and defend a US supply ship that will refuel the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group, which has been traveling to the region in response to threats from North Korea.
Something like this would have been unimaginable two years ago, for several reasons. First, it would have been thought unnecessary. Second, it would have been thought to be too provocative to China. And third, it's a dramatic departure Japan's pacifist constitution, adopted after World War II.
Today, all three of these reasons have changed dramatically, in this generational Crisis era.. First, it's thought to be necessary because North Korea has been making specific threats to target American ships, and has been testing missiles and nuclear weapons in support of that threat.
Second, both China and North Korea have become increasingly warlike and belligerent, and both have been making implied or explicit military threats. In the last two years, China has had a huge military buildup in the South China Sea, in proven violation of international law, and has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have been owned or used by other countries for centuries.
And the third change is an outcome of the previous two. As I've been writing for years, in this generational Crisis era, it seems that almost every nation on earth has become increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic, whether in America, Europe, the Mideast or Asia. The mutual xenophobia between China and Japan has been simmering for a long time, but because of the increased war buildup of both China and North Korea, the mood of Japan's population has become far more nationalistic than before, allowing the prime minister Shinzo Abe to bring about a modification to Japan's pacifist constitution. The Diplomat and BBC
Related Articles
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe has long been advocating the removal of the self-defense clause of Japan's constitution that forbids any military action except to defend against a military attack on Japanese soil. However, the votes necessary to pass a constitutional amendment have never been available.
But he was able to get Japan's Diet (parliament) to pass an ordinary law that reinterprets the phrase "self-defense" to mean "collective self-defense." This is a doctrine that permits any country to legally pursue foreign military action anywhere in the world in order to defend its allies.
There's already been one test of the new "collective self-defense" policy. In November of last year, Japan deployed 350 SDF (Self-Defense Forces) troops to South Sudan to act as peacekeeping forces. There were SDF forces in South Sudan in the past, but they were restricted to non-combat roles such as rebuilding roads and refugee camps. The November deployment permitted them to engage in combat if they're attacked, or if other nations' peacekeepers are attacked. Since then, no actual combat has been reported.
That was the first time since the end of World War II that Japan's military was permitted to engage in combat for any reason outside of Japanese soil, and even that minor deployment was extremely controversial in Japan.
The deployment of the JS Izumo to escort and defend a US supply ship is a big leap forward in use of Japan's new collective self-defense doctrine, and will further increase the nationalism in Japan, North Korea and China. Japan Times
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-May-17 World View -- Japan's largest warship, the JS Izumo, will escort and defend a US supply ship thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
France's presidential election in doubt because of abstainers
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In the upcoming decisive May 7 final round in France's election of a new president, Emmanuel Macron, the centrist 39-year-old former investment banker, is expected to beat 48-year-old far-right candidate Marine Le Pen by about 20 points, based on current polling. Mainstream media observers are hoping for an even bigger Le Pen defeat, which would be a repeat of the 2002 election.
When Marine Le Pen's father, 73 year old Jean-Marie Le Pen, then leader of the Front National, received 17% of the vote in first round of France's presidential election on April 21, 2002, he knocked the former socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, out of the second-round runoff. This was such a shock to the French public, that all other parties and candidates rallied against Le Pen in what was called the "Republican front," and gave the conservative candidate Jacques Chirac a massive victory with 82% of the vote. In other words, Le Pen didn't get any additional votes in the second round than he did in the first.
Now Marine Le Pen has won 21.3% of the votes in the first round of France's presidential election on April 23, 2017, knocking out the Republican, François Fillon, the Socialist, Benoît Hamon, and the far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This sets up a two-way race between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old centrist who won 24% of the vote of the vote in the first round.
The question is: will another "Republican front" emerge in 2017, as it did in 2002? Will all other parties, candidates and voters unanimously rally against Le Pen, in favor of Macron? We already know that's not going to happen.
First, Mélenchon is refusing to endorse either Le Pen or Macron. He announced to his supporters:
"You don't need me to tell you who to vote. I'm not a guru, not a guide."
After Marine Le Pen responded by saying that she would go after Mélenchon's voters, Mélenchon's spokesman Alexis Corbière said, "Not one vote should go to the National Front," implying that Mélenchon really does support Macron. According to a poll, Mélenchon's voters would break 40% for Macron and 19% for Le Pen -- and 41% would abstain.
And that's the second major issue: the abstainers. Many college students are opposed to both Le Pen and Macron, and some are violently opposed, as shown on Thursday by several hundred school students who threw glasses and smoke bombs at police during a "Neither Marine, nor Macron" demonstration in Paris.
One 18-year-old girl told RFI:
"I don’t want to choose between liberalism and fascism. Don’t need someone who worked for the bank, with his program he’s going to put France in the sh-t, but fascism isn’t the solution either. I don’t want to choose between two diseases."
Macron left investment banking and launched his political career as economy minister in the Socialist government of the current president, François Hollande. Macron quit Hollande's government in August of last year, and built up his own political following.
Both Macron and Le Pen have family issues. In 2007, Macron pursued and married a woman 25 years older, the now 64 year old Brigitte Trogneux, a mother of three who left her husband for Macron. Le Pen is twice-divorced mother of three.
What effects all this will have on the election results is anyone's guess. As in the case of Donald Trump, the mainstream media are opposed to Le Pen to the point of incoherence, so it's impossible to figure out what's going on from media reports. AFP and Deutsche Welle and RFI
Marine Le Pen has campaigned against immigration, Islam, globalism, NATO, the European Union, and the euro currency. She has advocated "Frexit," by which she means that France should leave the eurozone and return to the French franc currency, and possibly leave the European Union altogether, just like Britain and Brexit. Many people fear that if she wins, then the entire European project will be in jeopardy.
However, there are two signs that those fears are overblown.
The first sign is that the European Union nations appear to have come together in greater unity as a result of the coming negotiations for Britain's leaving the European Union, as we described yesterday.
The second reason is that Le Pen herself appears to be backtracking on her position on the euro. This would be similar to what's happened with Donald Trump, who backed off some of his extreme positions while the election campaign was still on, and has backed off further since becoming president.
Le Pen's stated policy platforms in the past have included:
"To support French companies in the face of unfair international competition through the implementation of intelligent protectionism and the restoration of a national currency adapted to our economy, the vehicle of our competitiveness. ...Monetary and budgetary sovereignty, because there is no free-state without a currency, and then economic sovereignty, to be able to implement economic patriotism. ...
The euro is the currency of the bankers, not the people who have seen the decline of its purchasing power and mass unemployment."
Le Pen is now facing up to the reality that leaving the euro currency is one of the least popular of her policies, as most of her voter base is more concerned about immigration and Islam.
So last week, in an interview, she said:
"This means converting the single currency into a common euro, a currency that will not affect daily purchases, but only large companies that trade internationally."
She's also loosened her timetable. In past she promised a "Frexit" referendum within six months of taking office, but now she's saying:
"The transition from the single currency to the European common currency is not a pre-requisite of all economic policy, the timetable will adapt to the immediate priorities and challenges facing the French government.Everything will be done to ensure an orderly transition ...and the coordinated construction of the right for each country to control its own currency and its central bank."
So she's no longer talking about a referendum, and she's no longer talking about leaving the euro currency. As far as I can make out, she wants to have TWO euro currencies, one for international trade, and one for daily purposes. This is totally delusional, and appears to me to be to be a sign of desperation. Euro News and Reuters and Bloomberg
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-May-17 World View -- France's Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen starts to backtrack on euro policy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-May-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Web Log Summary - 2017
Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004
Web Log - December, 2017
Web Log - November, 2017
Web Log - October, 2017
Web Log - September, 2017
Web Log - August, 2017
Web Log - July, 2017
Web Log - June, 2017
Web Log - May, 2017
Web Log - April, 2017
Web Log - March, 2017
Web Log - February, 2017
Web Log - January, 2017
Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004