Dynamics
|
|
Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
| HOME WEB LOG COUNTRY STUDIES COMMENT FORUM | |
| DOWNLOADS FOURTH TURNING ARCHIVE ABOUT | |
US warns Assad regime to stay west of Euphrates river
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
According to Pentagon estimates, there are few then 1,000 fighters from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) left in eastern Syria, down from several thousand just a few weeks ago. This is largely through the efforts of the mostly Kurdish US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have focused their efforts on eradicating remnants of ISIS.
The Pentagon in the past has said that US forces would remain in Syria "as long as we need to," and on Friday U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis gave an outline about how the role of US forces will be changing in 2018, following the collapse of the self-declared ISIS caliphate in Raqqa.
According to Mattis, ISIS is on the run, with some remaining ISIS fighters in the Middle Euphrates River Valley:
"As we sit here today at the end of 2017, the caliphate is on the run, we’re breaking them.We are in the process of crushing the life out of the caliphate there, while trying to keep the innocent people safe – which is very hard with this group.
It [ISIS] is less inspirational when they have lost their physical caliphate; it is less inspirational as the stories of what it was like living under their rule come out. I think it is a brand with a diminishing appeal, but the appeal is still there for those who go in for that philosophy."
Mattis said the time is right for "an attempt to move toward normalcy," by operations like clearing IEDs, and ensuring peace and stability:
"What we will be doing is shifting from what I call an offensive, terrain-seizing approach, to a stabilizing [approach].You'll see more U.S. diplomats on the ground. When you bring in more diplomats, they’re working that initial restoration of services. They bring in the contractors. That sort of thing, There’s international money that’s got to be administered so it actually does something and doesn’t go into the wrong people’s pockets."
The approximately 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria would stay and provide security for the diplomats and civilians, as well as help with training and aid in efforts to hunt down IS fighters. Dept. of Defense and VOA and CNBC
The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is demanding that US forces leave Syria completely, and is calling the US presence "illegal."
But according to Mattis, there is a demarcation line between the forces of the al-Assad regime and its ally Russia on one side, and the Syrian Democratic Forces and the coalition forces on the other side:
"This is the demarcation line, and we've said that we will operate on one side, the Russians on the other. And we're still taking ISIS down. Nothing has changed."
Mattis is denying that that US-backed forces have engaged "Assad forces" crossing the demarcation line:
"It hasn't come up. They're not even trying it. So I'm not concerned. ..."Well, right now, it's a mistake if somebody does it. So it's not a warning to anybody."
Despite the implied warning by Mattis, al-Assad says that the Kurds are "traitors," and he wants his army to attack them and possibly to exterminate them. The al-Assad regime currently controls about 55% of Syria, and Kurdish forces control about 28%.
Turkey also considers the Kurds in the SDF to be "terrorists," and wants to see their role reduced. Furthermore, Turkey has recently called Bashar al-Assad a "terrorist."
It appears that, in addition to eliminating the remaining 1,000 ISIS fighters, the remaining 2,000 US troops in Syria will have the job of protecting the Kurds from the Turkish and al-Assad forces. Critics of Friday's announcement by Mattis claim that it's a prescription for open-ended mission creep. AFP and Jerusalem Post and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and Eagle Online
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Dec-17 World View -- With ISIS collapsing, US forces will remain in Syria to restore 'normalcy' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Iran's regime begins responding to the protests
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A small Thursday protest in northeastern Iran against the economic policies of Iran's president Hassan Rouhani has spread on Friday to become a general anti-government protest in cities across Iran. The protesters are now targeting not just Rouhani, but the entire regime of Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei.
Iran's economy has become increasingly desperate, and politician's statements blaming Iran's economy on outside forces (i.e., the United States) are increasingly disbelieved.
Egg prices in Iran had doubled since last week, due to the government's culling of millions of chickens diagnosed with avian flu. Unemployment stood at 12.4% in this fiscal year, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, up 1.4% from the previous year. About 3.2 million Iranians are jobless, out of a total population of 80 million.
Rouhani had promised that the economy would improve significantly after Iran reached the nuclear deal with America and the West, because of the removal of economic sanctions. However, the money that was derived from the removal of sanctions has been wasted on government corruption and foreign wars.
The slogans being chanted by protesters in different countries have been collected by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI / MEK), an organization led by Maryam Rajavi, advocating the removal of the hardline Iranian regime. Some of the slogans are listed below.
The original protests on Thursday were about the economy and government corruption:
By Friday, they had morphed into general anti-government and anti-regime protests:
Anti-war protests zeroed in on Iran's enormous expenditures on war efforts for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen:
Maryam Rajavi, referenced above, said:
"This uprising has tolled the death knell for the overthrow of the totally corrupt dictatorship of the mullahs, and is the rise of democracy, justice and popular sovereignty.The four-decade record of the mullahs’ rule has been nothing but inflation, poverty and corruption, torture and execution, killings and aggression. The bulk of the people’s wealth, including the money released in the nuclear deal, is either spent on repression and export of terrorism and war, or is plundered by the regime’s leaders. The overthrow of the religious fascism is the first step to get out of the crisis that is intensifying every day.
The mullahs’ regime has no future; investment on it is doomed to failure, and it is time for the international community to not tie their fate to this regime and recognize the Iranian people Resistance to overthrow that regime."
Ms. Rajavi's statement is interesting, because it's almost formulaic in being similar in tone to screeds by American anti-war activists in the 1960s and 1970s, and indeed to screeds by anti-Donald Trump politicians today. Payvand (Iran) and Bloomberg and Deutsche Welle and Al Arabiya
As I've been writing for years, Iran's population is behaving like a typical country in a generational Awakening era. This is one generation past the previous generational crisis war, in this case the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988.
America's last generational Awakening era was the 1960s-70s, one generation past the end of World War II. There was a "generation gap" pitting the traumatized survivors of World War II versus the Boomers who grew up after the war, and were not traumatized. There were student riots, long hot summers, the Summer of Love, bra-burning, anti-war protests, Kent State shootings, all culminating in the Awakening era climax, the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974.
We don't know when it's going to happen, but Iran is headed for a similar climax. Perhaps it will be on the death of the current 79-year-old Supreme Leader, or perhaps it will be based on some sort of electoral change, as happened with Richard Nixon.
In the late 1990s, college students in these younger generations started holding pro-Western and pro-American protests, during Iran's generational Awakening era. Khamenei and the Iran hardliners brutally suppressed those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today, those students are 30-40 years old, and have risen to positions of power, ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies off. And by the way, this is also true within the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi Arabia to be an existential threat. This is one of several reasons why I've been saying for years that, in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran will be an ally of the United States, along with Russia and India, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries.
There was a serious split between hardliners and moderates in Iran's government after the 2009 presidential elections, when young people were protesting, and there was blood running in the streets because Iran's security forces were massacring students and other protesters. Khamenei wanted the security forces to be completely unleashed, so they could kill, torture, rape, jail and bash anyone they wanted with impunity, while the moderates in the government wanted to permit peaceful protests, and wanted the jailed protesters to be released.
Iran's government was extremely embarrassed by its violent response to peaceful protesters in 2009, and want to avoid a repeat, as indicated Friday by hardline cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda:
"If the security and law enforcement agencies leave the rioters to themselves, enemies will publish films and pictures in their media and say that the Islamic Republic system has lost its revolutionary base in Mashhad."
So Iran's government is in a quandary. The protests are small now, although they're a lot more widespread than the 2009 protests, which were mainly limited to Tehran. If the protests fizzle out by themselves, then all will be well for the time being. But if the protests grow in the next days and weeks, then the government will be forced to crush them, and as Alamolhoda says, world media will be filled with pictures and video of blood running in the streets of Tehran, as in 2009. BBC and Iran Front Page and Reuters
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Dec-17 World View -- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Who's going to pick the cotton in Uzbekistan?
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Uzbekistan's new leader Shavkat Mirziyoyev is sacking senior security officials in the corrupt and bloody National Security Service (NSS), the local successor to the Soviet KGB, and has promised to reform economic reporting, saying that reported figures for economic growth and employment had been "fiction" for years.
Mirziyoyev's predecessor was Islam Karimov, a vicious, corrupt dictator who had been in power since 1991, and who died a year ago at age 78 after suffering a stroke.
Karimov ruled over a deeply corrupt system of wealth distribution among powerful clans, involving nepotism and cronyism. The population was kept in line by forced labor, mass arrests, torture and repression.
Mirziyoyev has been in office for 15 months, and has promised hope and change in several areas, including liberalizing the economy and ensuring security, interethnic harmony and religious tolerance. However, he's said nothing about strengthening the public's role in the political process, or of improvement in human rights or allowing independent media. Reuters and RFE/RL and Reuters and RFE/RL
Under Karimov, the region has seen Islamic radicalism in the form of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in the densely populated and restive Fergana (Ferghana) Valley. The Fergana Valley lies in three separate countries. It consists of eastern Uzbekistan, part of northern Tajikistan and part of southwestern Kyrgyzstan. It's the most densely populated region of Central Asia, and has been plagued by frequent ethnic and religious conflict since the Soviet breakup.
Following a wave of jihadist terror attacks in March 2004, 23 Muslims were put on trial on terrorism charges. In May 2005, Some 10,000 Muslims in Andijon (Andizhan) in the heart of the Fergana Valley began protesting the trial peacefully. However, the demonstrations turned violent when armed protesters attacked the prison, freeing dozens of prisoners, including the 23 Muslims on trial. Government soldiers moved in and fired on thousands of protestors, killing 500 people and causing thousands of refugees to flee Andijon and cross the border into Kyrgyzstan.
Since then, the IMU has become increasingly radicalized. Its initial goal was to turn the entire Fergana valley into a caliphate, but it was drawn into the Afghanistan war by the American intervention, and has cooperated to some extent with the Taliban in executing terrorist attacks in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Although originally allied with al-Qaeda, the IMU has changed allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
The current objectives of the IMU are currently unclear, but using the IMU as a reason, Karimov has fueled resentment towards the government through mass arrests. Protest has been unheard of because the National Security Service (NSS) is so feared, but now the new leader Shavkat Mirziyoyev is vowing to bring the NSS under control. Mirziyoyev is starting by firing some senior level officers, but whether anything will really change remains to be seen.
It's believed that hundreds of Uzbeks are in Iraq and Syria fighting with ISIS and other jihadist groups. With the continuing demise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, it's possible that some of these will return to Uzbekistan and join with local insurgents to pose an internal threat to the country.
Jihadists from Uzbekistan have occasionally perpetrated terrorist acts in other regions.
An Uzbek citizen was arrested in Sweden in April when he ran a truck into a crowd in Stockholm and killed four people. The suspect had been denied a request for residency in Sweden and expressed sympathy with the ISIS. Two Uzbeks and a Kazakh were arrested in Brooklyn in 2015 and charged with conspiring to support ISIS.
Sayfullo Saipov, a 29-year-old citizen of Uzbekistan, was arrested immediately after killing eight people by speeding a rental truck down a New York City on October 31. Saipov came to America in 2011, and in 2013 was married in Ohio to a 19-year old girl, Nozima Odilova, who is also from Uzbekistan. They have two children. Saipov was apparently radicalized while in the United States.
Uzbekistan's president Shavkat Mirziyoyev immediately acknowledged the violence and expressed his condolences, writing to President Trump, "Uzbekistan is prepared to provide all measures and means to assist in the investigation of this terrorist act."
Under Karimov, Uzbekistan has been a U.S. partner in the fight against terrorism, and the US has also used Uzbekistan as a strategic location to bring goods and military equipment into Afghanistan. That's expected to continue under Mirziyoyev. Crisis Group (29-Sept) and EurasiaNet (1-Nov) and Newsweek (31-Oct) and The Atlantic (1-Nov)
Uzbekistan became a cotton-producing powerhouse in the twentieth century for an ironic reason.
In the mid-1800s, the Russians invaded Uzbekistan. Russia had lost its supply of cotton from the southern United States because of the American Civil War, and the Russians wanted to establish a safe source of cotton, and so they developed a large cotton-producing agriculture in Uzbekistan.
As part of Stalin's Soviet Union, Uzbekistan became a cotton powerhouse starting in the 1920s. In support of the cotton trade, millions of ethnic Russians began pouring into the country, especially into the fertile Fergana Valley (or Ferghana Valley), in the far eastern portion of the country.
1991 was a pivotal year for Uzbekistan and the Fergana Valley. That was the year that the Soviet Union collapsed, resulting in the formation of Uzbekistan as an independent republic. It also resulted in a great deal of financial hardship for the Russians still living in the Fergana Valley. The result was the first signs of Islamic fundamentalism in Uzbekistan when some unemployed young Muslims seized the Communist Party headquarters in the city of Namangan in the Fergana Valley, and ended up forming the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).
What makes this ironic is that the cotton trade in the American south before the Civil War depended on slavery, and the cotton trade in Uzbekistan since independence in 1991 has also depended on slavery.
Since 1991, it has become standard practice by the government to use forced labor to pick the cotton. Theoretically it was voluntary, but in practice the government forced teachers, doctors and students, including children, to leave hospitals, schools and universities and go to the cotton fields.
The new president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has vowed to end forced labor, and has issued a decree categorically banning the use of children, along with education and healthcare workers, in the harvest. These people were sent home right in the middle of this year's cotton harvest, much to their surprise.
However, as analysts point out, cotton is an existential crop for Uzbekistan, and somebody has to pick the cotton, and now other groups are picking cotton as part of a new wave of forced labor.
The long-term plan is to attract voluntary cotton-pickers through higher wages, and to mechanize the harvest through 15,000 harvesting machines. Whether this will be done remains to be seen, but in the meantime, forced labor is still being used to pick the cotton. EurasiaNet (31-Oct)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Dec-17 World View -- Uzbekistan's Shavkat Mirziyoyev promises to end atrocities of previous leader Islam Karimov thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
South Korea calls for renegotiating 2015 deal with Japan on comfort women
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
An unauthorized statue representing a "comfort woman" during Japan's occupation of the Philippines has been erected on Roxas Boulevard in Manila, usually reserved for statues of actresses and former presidents.
The statue was funded by a group of Chinese donors working in secret with a Philippines feminist organization. The statue was reported in Chinese media even before an unveiling ceremony took place on December 9.
On December 12, the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) sent a letter to the Mayor of Manila, with "requests for background information regarding the monument, including the process of erecting such monuments, and the circumstances that led to the erection of the "Comfort Woman" statue." The mayor responded that the statue had been erected without a permit, and that no permit had been issued.
A similar statue in San Francisco has drawn retaliation from Japan. San Francisco and Osaka, Japan's third-largest city, became sister cities in 1957, as part of a post-war effort to foster peace. Last month, the mayor of Osaka announced that they will end the relationship. Osaka mayor Hirofumi Yoshimura said, "Our relationship of trust was completely destroyed. I will dissolve the sister-city relationship."
So far, no similar retaliatory measures have been taken against Manila or the Philippines for the Manila statue. Manila is a sister city of Yokohama, Japan, while Japan is the Philippines' biggest partner in trade, investment, and official development assistance.
Although no permit has been issued for the statue in Manila, Teresita Ang See, identified as a "community and anticrime advocate" of Chinese ancestry in Manila, justifies the statue:
"The Japanese occupation is a fact. The atrocities, persecutions, massacres, rape and other war crimes are facts. These we cannot and should not deny. There is a park at the corner of Anda and Gen. Luna Streets in Intramuros, put up by the Memorare Manila, to remember the more than 100,000 civilians killed during the Battle of Manila."
The Japanese say that they object to the statues because they are being singled out, when rape and sexual slavery are common in any war.
And the Japanese are absolutely right.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, rape, sexual slavery and other sex crimes are common in war, especially generational crisis wars, as a way of demoralizing the enemy.
Japan's sex crimes are over 70 years old, but there are girls and women being sold as sex slaves in Libya today. These are Mideast and African refugees who come to Libya hoping to cross over to Europe. Instead, they run out of money to pay human traffickers and they get auctioned off in slave auctions. The men are auctioned as worker slaves, and the boys, girls and women are auctioned as sex slaves. That's happening today, and I'm not aware of any statues being erected for them.
As a Chinese woman, Teresita Ang See statement about comfort women is probably motivated as much by her hatred of the Japanese and Philippines people as she is about her concern for the victims.
The hatred between Chinese and Philippines people is enormous, as was documented in a 2003 book World on Fire by Yale Law School professor Amy Chua. Chua was a member of the élite Chinese descent minority living in Manila, in an enclave walled off from ordinary Filipinos, whom she never saw except as servants living in filth in the basement of her family's mansion. Chua described what happened after one of the servants murdered her aunt:
"Each time I think of Nilo Abique -- he was close to six feet and my aunt was four-feet-eleven-inches tall -- I find myself welling up with a hatred and revulsion so intense it is actually consoling. But over time I have also had glimpses of how the Chinese must look to the vast majority of Filipinos, to someone like Abique: as exploiters, as foreign intruders, their wealth inexplicable, their superiority intolerable. I will never forget the entry in the police report for Abique's "motive for murder." The motive given was not robbery, despite the jewels and money the chauffer was said to have taken. Instead, for motive, there was just one word -- "Revenge."My aunt's killing was just a pinprick in a world more violent than most of us ever imagined. In America we read about acts of mass slaughter and savagery; at first in faraway places, now coming closer and closer to home. We do not understand what connects these acts. Nor do we understand the role we have played in bringing them about.
In the Serbian concentration camps of the early 1990s, the women prisoners were raped over and over, many times a day, often with broken bottles, often together with their daughters. The men, if they were lucky, were beaten to death as their Serbian guards sang national anthems; if they were not so fortunate, they were castrated or, at gunpoint, forced to castrate their fellow prisoners, sometimes with their own teeth. In all, thousands were tortured and executed."
Perhaps one of my readers from the Balkans can let me know if there are any statues being erected for the men who were castrated by their fellow prisoners with their teeth.
In the end, this whole comfort women issue is an opportunistic way to collect money from the Japanese, but it's really all about the ethnic hatred that the Japanese, Chinese and Philippines have for each other. In the last war, it was Japan versus China and the Philippines. In the next war it will be China versus Japan and the Philippines.
So the Japanese are completely correct that they're being singled out for things that are common in generational crisis wars.
History is written by the victors. America and the West were the victors in World War II, and American soldiers saved both China and the Philippines from being conquered, colonized and enslaved by the Japanese. The Japanese lost the war to the Americans and the West, and their crimes are being singled out. That's the way the world works. Washington Post (25-Nov) and Japan Forward and ABS-CBN (Manila, 20-Dec) and The Standard (Philippines)
Civic groups in South Korea are demanding that a December 2015 deal between Japan and South Korea to settle the comfort women issue be repudiated, and a new deal be negotiated to obtain more money from Japan, as well as full acceptance of blame.
The 2015 agreement included a $8.8 million fund paid by Japan to help the victims. Anti-Japanese groups in South Korea claim that the 2015 agreement did not fully take into account the views of the victims, and that more money should be paid to them directly, rather than through the government. According to some reports, victims who accepted money from the fund were vilified by the anti-Japanese groups.
The agreement also called for the removal of statues of comfort women outside the Japanese Embassy in Seoul, and outside the Japanese consulate in Busan city, but those statues have not been removed.
The 2015 agreement was supposed to resolve the comfort women issue once and for all. Although all the activists' demands were met at the time, some former victims were angry that they had not been consulted.
Japan's foreign minister Taro Kono has reacted angrily to the demand to renegotiate the 2015 deal:
"If (South Korea) tries to revise the agreement that is already being implemented, that would make Japan’s ties with South Korea unmanageable and it would be unacceptable."
The implication of this threat is that South Korea and Japan will not be able to work together to effectively counter nuclear missiles threats from North Korea.
South Korea's foreign minister Kang Kyung-wha said, "Based on the findings, the government will gather opinions of the victims and others involved going forward with a focus to be placed on a victims-centered approach. In addition, action will be taken carefully in consideration of any impact that it could have on the relations between South Korea and Japan." Yonhap (Seoul) and Reuters and Asia Times and The Atlantic (28-Dec-2015)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Dec-17 World View -- China funds unauthorized anti-Japan comfort woman statue in Manila, Philippines thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
India kills 3 Pakistani soldiers in Kashmir in revenge attack
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Indian officials are bragging about a "tit-for-tat" revenge attack on Monday evening, when Indian army troops crossed the Kashmir Line of Control (LoC) and crossed from the Indian-governed side to the Pakistani-governed side. There they conducted a "localized tactical operation," first creating an explosion 100-300 meters across the LoC, and then ambushed a unit of Pakistani army troops, killing three and wounding one.
Indian officials call it a "tit-for-tat" response to an almost identical raid carried out by Pakistani troops on Saturday on Indian troops, killing one Major and three soldiers.
India adopted a policy of retaliatory revenge attacks after 19 Indian soldiers were killed when terrorists attacked an Army camp in Uri on September 19, after which India's army conducted "surgical strikes" into Pakistani territory in Kashmir.
However, Pakistan's Foreign Office (FO) is denying that Indian troops ever crossed the LoC into Pakistani soil. Instead, the FO said that the Pakistani soldiers were killed by the explosion. According to Pakistan, firing by Indian forces had "provided a cover for the planting of IEDs [improvised explosive devices] by non-state actors", which resulted in the martyrdom of three soldiers. Daily Pioneer (India) and Dawn (Pakistan) and The Quint (India)
Related Articles
After a brutal terror attack on a Methodist Church in Quetta, Afghanistan, on December 17, Christians in Pakistan celebrated Christmas under tight security, provided by Pakistan's government in the form of commandos, snipers and plain-clothes policemen deployed across the country to protect Christians and Christian churches on Christmas.
On December 17, two suicide bombers attack a Methodist Church in the city of Quetta, the provincial capital of the restive province of Balochistan. Hundreds of worshippers were attending services when the attack occurred. Nine people were killed, and dozens wounded.
On March 26 of last year, at least 69 people, mostly women and children, were killed and more than 300 injured in a suicide bombing attack in a park in Lahore, Pakistan, crowded with Christians celebrating Easter Sunday. The suicide bomber was apparently targeting children, as the explosion took place in a children's playground, near swings and other rides.
Christians and other religious minorities have regularly faced atrocities across Pakistan. Shia Muslims are targeted most often, along with Hindus, Ahmadis and Christians.
Christians have been systematically targeted by Pakistan’s perverse blasphemy laws, which prescribe a mandatory death sentence for any act purportedly bringing Islam and its Prophet to disrepute. Most recently, a Christian man, Nadeem James Masih, was sentenced to death on September 15, 2017, for blasphemy. Nadeem was arrested in July 2016, after his friend Yasir Bashir told the Police that he sent him a poem on WhatsApp that was insulting to Islam. Straits Times and AP and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Las Tampa (Italy)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Dec-17 World View -- Christians celebrate Christmas in Pakistan under tight security thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Combined Syrian and Iranian forces taking control of enclave on Israel's border
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The combined forces of Syria's army and Iran-backed Hezbollah militias are fighting to take control of Beit Jinn, in the expectation that that its fall would also have a domino effect on all the Sunni anti-Assad militias in the entire Quneitra region of the Syrian Golan, allowing Iran and Hezbollah to mass forces in Syria on Israel's border. Beit Jinn is about 11 km from Israeli army positions on Mt. Hermon in Israel, while Quneitra is 5.5 km from the Israeli border.
On one side are the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, combined with militias from Iran-backed Hezbollah, and apparently supported by Druze militias in the region, for a total of several thousand fighters, backed by heavy aerial bombing and heavy artillery shelling.
On the other side are a combination of Israeli-backed "moderate" Free Syrian Army (FSA) anti-Assad Sunni rebels, combined with Sunni fighters from formerly al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), for a total of several hundred fighters. The combined Sunni forces are fighting under the banner of Itihad Quwt Jabal al Sheikh, or "Union of fighters of Jabal al Sheikh," and they are mainly drawn from local fighters from the area.
The Sunni groups are denying that they're close to surrender. According to an official from one Sunni group, "The Iranian-backed militias are trying to consolidate their sphere of influence all the way from southwest of Damascus to the Israeli border." Reuters and Israell National News and Al Manar (Hezbollah) and Debka (Israel)
Related Articles
With the collapse of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in both Iraq and Syria, and with Russia's recent announcement that it was going to remove most of its forces from Syria, Iran is moving to consolidate its control over parts of both countries. Two objectives are, first, to establish a land highway from Tehran (Iran) to both Damascus (Syria) and Beirut (Lebanon), and second, to establish an Iranian military base in southern Syria near the Israeli border. A further objective would be the eradication of the "Zionist regime."
In November, Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman said that Israel will feel free to act in any way it wants in Syria, in order to defend its own security, and particularly to prevent Iran from establishing a military base in Syria:
"We maintain absolute freedom of action and the only considerations that guide us are the security considerations of Israel. ... With regards to Iran, we will simply not allow for Shi'ite consolidation and Iranian entrenchment in Syria nor will we allow Syria to become a forward operating base against the State of Israel. Anyone who has yet to understand that is advised to do so."
A report in November said Iran is establishing a permanent military base outside Al-Kiswah, located 14 kilometers (8 miles) south of Damascus. Early in December, there were airstrikes attributed to Israel on Al-Kiswah and other targets around Damascus.
According Ron Dermer, Israel's ambassador to the US, the chances of a military confrontation between Israel and Iran are growing quickly. Dermer was asked what the chance was of a military conflict with Hezbollah in the next year:
"Well, I wouldn’t put a percentage on that, but I think it is higher than people think because of Iran’s continued push through the region. If Iran is not rolled back in Syria, then the chances of military confrontation are growing. I don’t want to tell you by the year or by the month. I’d say even by the week.Because the more they push, we have to enforce our red lines, and you always have the prospects of an escalation, even when parties don’t want an escalation because we will not allow Iran to establish that presence and establish another terror front against Israel in Syria. We’re not going to allow it to happen. So in taking action to defend ourselves, you don’t know what could happen. But I think it’s higher than people think."
The last major clash between Israel and Hezbollah occurred in 2006. The war was triggered when two Israeli soldiers were ambushed and kidnapped while on patrol near the border with Lebanon. Israel panicked and launched the Lebanon war with Hezbollah within four hours, with no plan, no objective, and no idea what was going on. The war that was considered disastrous for both sides. Jerusalem News Service and Meir Amit Intelligence Center and Reuters (12-Nov) and Politico
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Dec-17 World View -- Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah heading for a military confrontation in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The 'anti-war movement' in World War I
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
An almost-forgotten event in an almost-forgotten war.
One of the most remarkable occurrences in modern warfare occurred just a few months after World War I had begun.
On December 24, 1914, the German and British soldiers laid down their arms, crossed into the "No Man's Land" separating their trenches. They sang Christmas carols, played games, and shared jokes and beer with one another. They also used the time to bury their dead.
Hundreds and perhaps thousands of men on the Western Front experienced the informal truce. The war had begun only months earlier, and there was probably more curiosity than hatred between British and German troops. Once the soldiers began receiving Christmas presents from home, the mood in many areas became more festive than warlike.
This story illustrates how different World War I was from World War II.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, World War II was a generational crisis war for America and Western Europe, but World War I was a non-crisis war. (World War I was a generational crisis war for Eastern Europe, Russia and the Mideast.)
Can you imagine Hitler's German troops and Churchill's English troops singing Christmas carols and playing games at the beginning of World War II? That would have been impossible.
World War I is now an almost completely forgotten war in America, except for its name. Because of the similarity of names between World Wars I and II, and because Americans fought Germans in both wars, most Americans believe that WW I and WW II were similar to one another.
Today there are few people, even among historians (as I've discovered), who have any idea what the Great War (WW I) was about. Most people seem to believe that WW I was the same as WW II -- some pre-Hitler Hitler-type decided to invade France and started a world war. First World War - Christmas Truce
In fact, World War I was much more similar to our Vietnam war than it was to World War II.
World War I was very politically divisive for both America and Germany. America actually remained neutral between England and Germany for several years, and only entered the war in 1917, to much political dissent. To this day, many historians still consider America's entry in WW I to have been unwise. In a 2004 survey of historians' views on the "greatest" and "least great" presidents, the two presidents voted the "most controversial" were Bill Clinton and Woodrow Wilson. Wilson was considered controversial because he was the President who entered America into World War I, despite enormous political opposition. I have personally interviewed older men who are still absolutely furious at Wilson for getting America into that war.
Antiwar writings began appearing in both Britain and Germany. In England in 1917, Wilfred Owen, a 24-year-old soldier, wrote "Anthem for Doomed Youth":
What passing-bells for these who die as cattle?
Only the monstrous anger of the guns.
Only the stuttering rifles' rapid rattle
Can patter out their hasty orisons.
No mockeries for them; no prayers nor bells,
Nor any voice of mourning save the choirs,—
The shrill, demented choirs of wailing shells;
And bugles calling for them from sad shires.
What candles may be held to speed them all?
Not in the hands of boys, but in their eyes
Shall shine the holy glimmers of goodbyes.
The pallor of girls' brows shall be their pall;
Their flowers the tenderness of patient minds,
And each slow dusk a drawing-down of blinds.
Ironically, Owen died in 1918 in the same week that WW I ended. The "Doomed Youth" that he described have become known as the Lost Generation, in the same generational archetype as today's Generation-X. (See "Politicians commemorate Battle of the Somme, July 1, 1916.")
World War I was just as politically divisive for Germany. Germany did not start WW I, as many people naïvely believe. WW I started in the Balkans and spread to Russia. Germany was "accidentally" forced into the war because of a long-standing treaty with Austria which obligated Germany to invade France because France was an ally of Russia. England was pulled into the war because of a previous agreement with France.
By 1918, the German people were sick of the war, and when the Americans joined the war, that was the last straw for the German people, who forced their country's leaders to capitulate. Germany's incredible capitulation, long before it was necessary, occurred because the German people were so politically angered by the war. Essentially, Germany capitulated in WW I for exactly the same reason that America capitulated in the Vietnam War -- because of enormous political opposition back home during a "generational Awakening" era.
But when Germany capitulated on November 11, 1918, German troops were still deep within Belgian and French territory. Writing in his 1931 book World in Crisis, Winston Churchill said that if Germany had continued to fight, they would have been capable of inflicting two million more casualties upon the enemy. Churchill added that the Allies would not have put Germany to the test: simply by fighting on a little longer, the Allies would have negotiated a peace with no reparations, on terms far more favorable to Germany than actually occurred in the peace dictated by the Allies.
Between the Christmas Truce and the early capitulation, it was clear that the German people had little interest in fighting World War I.
After the war, the young German soldier Erich Maria Remarque wrote "Im Westen Nichts Neues (All Quiet on the Western Front)" depicting the heroic soldiers as becoming a "lost generation," following a completely pointless war. Some consider it to be the greatest antiwar book of all time. Churchill - World Crisis (full text PDF) and Remarque - All Quiet on the Western Front (full text PDF)
By contrast, WW II was a generational crisis war for Germany (as well as England and America). That war was no "accident." Hitler planned his attack on France and England for years in advance, in secret, and Hitler kept on fighting long after it was clear that Germany would lose. There was no early capitulation.
As I described in 2008 in "The gathering storm in the Caucasus," today's international situation is much more similar to the prelude to WW I than to WW II.
World War II could almost have been anticipated by someone watching the murderous Adolf Hitler - and actually it was by Winston Churchill. But there was no figure like Hitler in WW I, which was triggered almost by a random event. When Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb high school student, the war in Eastern Europe was triggered. Germany was as shocked by the war as anyone, and had no desire to invade France, but was forced to by a treaty with Austria.
Today, a new world war could be launched in the same way as either WW I or II. There are Hitler-like figures on the scene, including China's Xi Jinping and North Korea's Kim Jong-un. And there are also deep xenophobic and nationalistic urges that are prevalent in many countries, especially in China and North Korea, directed against the US, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India.
Furthermore, there's a historical irony. After World War II, the United States took on the role of Policeman of the World, and in doing so, signed some sort of mutual defense treaty with many countries: Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the Marshall Islands, the ANZUS agreement with Australia and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement with all of Europe. The purpose of these treaties was to discourage attacks on any of these allies that would otherwise have the risk of spiraling into World War III.
So today, since those are mutual defense treaties, all of those countries actually have an obligation to defend the US in a war with China. Even if they stay neutral, any incident could trigger a larger war. Furthermore, the extreme xenophobia in China makes it more likely that the Chinese will interpret the mutual defense treaties in a way that will cause them to attack those countries. The irony is that these mutual defense treaties were supposed to prevent World War III, but instead they make World War III more likely.
Finally, with the US distracted in Asia, countries in the Mideast and elsewhere will feel free to launch their own attacks on their own enemies.
The most obvious imminent threat is North Korea. Two days ago, China and Russia both signed off on new extreme Security Council sanctions that N Korea calls a "total blockade" and "an act of war." It's becoming increasingly likely that a war with North Korea will begin soon, quite possibly starting with a preemptive strike by the US, and that China will tolerate it as long as US troops and S. Korean troops don't remain in N. Korea, or come close to the Yalu river.
Analysts are hoping that any such situation will end in some kind of peace treaty, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I would expect it to escalate in a much larger war in this generational Crisis era.
And so, a world war could be triggered today by any of a number of random events, even by a high school student who manages to assassinate some world leader. Any event like that could spiral into a regional war and then into a world war, as happened in 1914.
So, the Christmas truce of 1914 is a unique, sentimental story to think about in this holiday season, as we realize with sadness that there'll be no Christmas truces in the "clash of civilizations" world war that's just around the corner. BBC
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Dec-17 World View -- Remembering the 1914 World War I Christmas Truce thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Violence surges in East Ukraine as Russia withdraws its monitors
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In a move that some analysts describe as escalatory, the US State Department announced that it will be sending weapons to the government of Ukraine to provide "enhanced defensive capabilities" to help Ukraine build its military long-term, defend its sovereignty and "deter further aggression." According to State Dept. spokesman Heather Nauert:
"US assistance is entirely defensive in nature, and as we have always said, Ukraine is a sovereign country and has a right to defend itself."
She did not describe what weapons will be sent, but unnamed sources say that they will include portable Javelin anti-tank missiles.
The semantics are complex here. It's true that these missiles can be shot at people to kill them, but that would largely be a waste since they're designed to destroy tanks, in particular the Russia-supplied tanks that the Russians have been using in East Ukraine to win battles and gain ground on Ukrainian forces. For that reason, the Javelin anti-tank missiles are described as defensive in nature.
Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko has been requesting these and other lethal weapons for years, as the Russians have been gaining ground in East Ukraine. President Barack Obama considered sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, but never approved them. Both Republicans and Democrats have called on the government to provide these weapons. President Donald Trump has been considering the plan ever since the State Department and the Pentagon signed off earlier this year, and finally approved it last week. AP and Newsweek (21-Dec) and Guardian (London)
The war between Russians and Ukrainians in East Ukraine began in 2014, but has been thought to be a "frozen conflict" for some time, because of the "Minsk agreement," a ceasefire agreement signed in 2015.
However, the ceasefire has been pretty much meaningless, as the violence has been escalating much of the year, according to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which monitors ceasefire violations. According to the OSCE, there have been 16,000 ceasefire violations in one week alone, December 11-17. According to the OSCE:
"We note with concern a sharp deterioration in the security situation with ceasefire violations reaching levels not recorded since February this year."
Kurt Volker, the US special envoy for Ukraine, says that the war is ratcheting up into a major crisis:
"A lot of people think that this has somehow turned into a sleepy, frozen conflict and it's stable and now we have...a cease-fire. It's a problem but it's not a crisis.That's completely wrong. It is a crisis. This has been the most violent year, 2017, and frankly last night was one of the most violent nights, certainly since February, and possibly this year."
Volker was speaking on December 19, and he was referring to the surge in violence that occurred the day before -- just after Russia withdrew its ceasefire monitors from the OSCE monitoring programs. Volker tweeted:
"Russia withdrew its officers from JCCC - a ceasefire implementation tool - right before a massive escalation in ceasefire violations. Ukraine just suffered some of the worst fighting since February, 2017. Decision for peace lies with Russia. 9:01 AM - 19 Dec 2017"
Volker said that the "massive escalation" in violence was correlated to the Russia's withdrawal from the ceasefire monitoring program, and suggested that it was coordinated by the Russian soldiers in east Ukraine. Reuters and RFE/RL and AFP
Related Articles
It's worthwhile to take a moment to review the massive program of disinformation and lies that Russia has pursued since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.
Russia always denied that there were Russian army troops in Ukraine, and when it was proven there were, the Russians claimed that they were just "volunteers." That also turned out to be disinformation, as 80% of Russia's army is a volunteer army. America has an all-volunteer army. So saying that Russian troops in Ukraine are "volunteers" is like saying that America's troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are "volunteers."
In July 2014, the Russians in eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile that was transported by a Volvo truck from Russia, as was confirmed in 2015 by a Dutch report following a lengthy investigation. Russia made one moronic claim after another, everything from the claim that MH17 fell out of the sky by itself to a claim that the US shot down MH17 to embarrass Putin.
After Putin's Russian forces invaded Crimea, Putin denied that there were Russian troops in Crimea, but later he awarded a medal to the leaders of the successful invasion. Putin said there were no plans to annex Crimea, but then Russia annexed Crimea soon after.
The point of reviewing all this history is that now we're in a new Ukraine crisis, and we're in the same situation, where everything that the Russians say is 100% worthless.
So now we have Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Grigory Karasin, saying that the US decision "raises the danger of derailing the process of peaceful settlement in Ukraine."
This is laughable. There is no "process of peaceful settlement."
The war in east Ukraine is being fought by Russian troops -- "volunteers" -- supplied with heavy Russian weapons, including tanks. As Kurt Volker says, "Decision for peace lies with Russia."
The Ukrainian troops are defensive. East Ukrainian is Ukrainian territory being invaded by foreign troops -- Russian troops. So if Karasin is serious about a "process of peaceful settlement," then Russia could stop sending troops and weapons into East Ukraine.
It's also up to the Russians to turn this into a full-scale war. Most analysts believe that the Russians do not want this, and can't really even afford it. But that's what would happen if the Russians send in more troops and more weapons. Russia Today and NBC News
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Dec-17 World View -- US sending anti-tank missiles to Ukraine as East Ukraine violence surges thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
How to confront a Chinese troll
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Lots of countries these days have laws that make it a criminal activity to criticize the government. Dictators and other psychopathic leaders use these laws to control the political opposition, since anyone who criticizes the leaders can be beaten, tortured, raped and jailed. So with Christmas approaching, it's worthwhile to note that two countries are implementing new laws to jail government critics.
On October 29, police in Dar es Salaam, the capital city of Tanzania, arrested parliament member Zitto Kabwe on charges of "sedition."
His crime? At a campaign rally, he said that the national economic growth for the second quarter was a 5.7%, when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that their figure was 7.8%.
According to police commander Lazaro Mambosasa, "The MP was later transferred to Central Police Station for further interrogation related to seditious words uttered on the material day."
Tanzania's president John Magufuli is apparently clamping down on criticism. According to his opponents, 400 have been arrested and questioned in the past two years. Politicians in the opposition Chadema party have been specifically targeted, although journalists and artists have also been arrested. MP Tundu Lissu has been arrested multiple times, once for revealing that Canada had seized a commercial aircraft for non-payment, and once when he was charged with "hate speech" after calling Magufuli a "dictator."
Magufuli now wants to clamp down harder. Last week, he instructed the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to fine or jail any individuals, institutions and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) accused of airing or publishing false statistics. Magufuli said that the minimum sentence should be three years in jail.
What this reminds me of is the Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in 1958-59. Mao wanted to turn China into a Socialist powerhouse.
500,000,000 million peasants were taken out of their individual homes and put into communes, creating a massive human work force. The family unit was dismantled. Communes were completely segregated, with children, wives and husbands all living in separate barracks and working in separate battalions. Communal living was emphasized by eating, sleeping, and working in teams. Husbands and wives were allowed to be alone only at certain times of the month and only for brief periods.
Mao dismantled the Central Statistical Bureau, the organization responsible for keeping track of all the economic activity going on in the country. As a result, China's leadership had no real idea whether the Great Leap Forward was meeting its objectives or not. As a result, corruption and fraud became rampant, and no one knew what was going on. Farms lied about crop harvests, and there was no way to verify them. By the time the problems were discovered, tens of millions of people died of starvation, and Mao was disgraced.
John Magufuli should keep that historical example in mind. By jailing people who tell him what he doesn't want to hear, there may be a national disaster in the making. Tanzania Daily News and East African (Kenya, 31-Oct) and All Africa (1-Nov) and East African (26-Aug)
Related Articles
 |
A 19-year-old Chinese man living in Inner Mongolia, identified only by his surname Luo, has been arrested for "stomping and insulting" a portrait of Genghis Khan. A video of the act went viral, and police received complaints that the video had caused a disruption to society.
Genghis Khan is definitely not revered by many Han Chinese, especially in the areas that he conquered and ravaged during the Mongol invasion of China, a generational crisis war that climaxed in 1206. However, he is revered by ethnic Mongols, including Mongols who are Chinese citizens. Luo was sentenced to one year in prison for desecrating a portrait of Genghis Khan.
Now China is considering a new law that criminalizes anyone deemed to have smeared the “reputation and honor” of the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s canon of heroes and martyrs.
The draft law bans the illicit appropriation of land and facilities near memorials of heroes and martyrs, as well as any damage or contamination of such memorials. "Those who appropriate, damage or contaminate memorials, and insult or slander heroes and martyrs, may receive administrative penalties from public security or even criminal sanctions." Xinhua and South China Morning Post and Xinhua and Radio Free Asia
Related Articles
Getting attacked by trolls is a constant fact of life for people who post articles about other countries. I've been attacked by trolls from Russia, Syria, China, Burma, Azerbaijan, Zimbabwe, Burundi, and other countries, when they didn't like my article because the facts embarrassed their country or country leader.
In several recent articles, I've compared China's "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" to Nazi Germany's "National Socialism," and noted that they were very similar. I said the same thing in a recent article on China's military buildup on Bhutan's Doklam Plateau.
A Chinese troll named "J Y" started attacking me, saying that India was much worse than China. After a few exchanges, I wrote:
"I could send you links to a thousand Indian media articles that criticize Narendra Modi. You can't post a single link to a Chinese media article that criticizes Xi Jinping."
What followed was really bizarre. I kept demanding that he post a link to any article that criticizes Xi Jinping. He repeatedly evaded this question, and posted links to left-wing web sites criticizing India.
Finally, I wrote:
"Really, this is hilarious. You know, at first I thought you might come up with some article that maybe criticized Xi Jinping in some minor way, maybe the way he combs his hair or something.But now I realize that if some article like that even existed, then you couldn't link to it, because then you would be criticizing Xi Jinping, and you would be abducted and thrown into jail by the Chinese Communist Nazis. So you don't dare do anything like that, and all you can do is evade the whole issue.
China is a country where you can't even post a picture of Winnie the Pooh, because the cartoon character looks too much like Xi Jinping!!!!"
So this turned out to be a very interesting situation. Dear Reader, if you ever confront a Chinese troll online, just keep demanding that he say anything to criticize Xi Jinping, or link to a Chinese media article criticizing Xi Jinping, and he won't have an answer.
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Dec-17 World View -- Tanzania and China pass new laws to send government critics to jail thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Palestinians in Jerusalem fail to get excited by UN vote
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The United Nations General Assembly on Thursday voted 128-9 with 35 abstentions in favor of a resolution demanding that all states must obey Security Council resolutions, and which supposedly therefore makes the declaration by US President Donald Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel to be "null and void." The resolution had been sponsored by Turkey and Yemen.
Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital changes nothing on the ground, so the recognition was little more than symbolic. Thursday's General Assembly resolution is non-binding, so it's completely symbolic. And therefore the Palestinian victory was only symbolic.
The mainstream media have been calling it "a stinging rebuke to Donald Trump" or a "new repudiation of the Trump administration," or "proof that the United States is isolated in the world" or a "major humiliation for Trump, Israel and the United States."
The problem is that it was none of those things. It was actually a humiliation for the United Nations and the Palestinians, because the vote 128-9 was far lower than expected, and far lower than votes on Jerusalem-related resolutions in the past:
In the case of the last two of these resolutions, they both occurred during President Barack Obama's administration, and they were opposed by Obama. So if Thursday's vote was a stinging defeat for Trump, then previous votes must have been stinging defeats for Obama.
In view of these past votes, the Palestinians had hoped and expected that Thursday's vote would be approved by at least 150 votes. The result of 129 votes was a big humiliation.
The low vote count was undoubtedly the result of threats by the Trump administration to cut foreign aid to countries that supported the resolution. US ambassador Nikki Haley had said that the U.S. would be "taking names" of those countries.
This threat prompted numerous furious responses prior to the vote. The most furious was from Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan:
"Mr. Trump, you cannot buy Turkey's democratic will with your dollars. Our decision is clear.I call on the whole world: Don't you dare sell your democratic struggle and your will for petty dollars.
I hope and expect the US won't get the result it expects from there (the UN) and the world will give a very good lesson to the US."
In view of the actual vote, it was apparently the United States that gave a very good lesson to the United Nations.
The question now is: What consequences will the United States have to pay for this threat and this power play?
President Obama announced a "red line" saying that the US would strike Syria's president Bashar al-Assad if he used chemical weapons. When al-Assad crossed the line and used Sarin gas, Obama flip-flopped on his threat, which was disastrous for American foreign policy.
Now it seems that President Trump set a "red line," and that many nations crossed the red line on Thursday by voting in favor of the UN resolution. So what's Trump going to do now? Much of that foreign aid is in support of America's own security, and cutting it sharply would be a danger to America. On the other hand, flip-flopping on the red line commitment could be harmful for the administration's credibility. Presumably we'll know the answer soon. United Nations and NBC News and United Nations (30-Nov) and Al Jazeera
President Trump's declaration on December 6 of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel has infuriated much of the aging leadership of the Palestinians, including Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
But as for Palestinians "on the street" in Jerusalem, it's generated more cynicism than excitement.
The average Palestinian is around 20 years old. The Oslo Accords agreement, signed in 1993, was supposed to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli issue, but the average Palestinian knows that the Oslo agreement accomplished nothing, and that nothing has changed, except that their octogenarian leaders are still giving speeches and doing nothing more to change things.
Palestinian leaders had hoped for several weeks of "days of rage" by thousands of Palestinians in Jerusalem, as occurred in July, when the thousands of Palestinians poured into Jerusalem streets after Israel installed metal detectors outside the al-Aqsa Mosque / Temple Mount compound, in order to deter terrorists. This was the worst violence in Jerusalem for years, but no such violence occurred after Trump's Jerusalem announced. There was brief violence, but it fizzled quickly.
To the Palestinians in Jerusalem, Thursday's General Assembly angry speeches by Erdogan and Abbas were nothing new. They'd heard the same speeches dozens or hundreds of times before, and nothing changes.
One Palestinian activist said, "It's a pointless exercise. The Palestinian Authority (PA) has to evaluate the whole diplomatic process of going to the UN. The experience we've had is that for decades now these resolutions have not changed anything." Asia Times and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Dec-17 World View -- General Assembly Jerusalem vote: Low 'yes' count humiliates Palestinians thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Burma officials, including Aung San Suu Kyi, may face genocide charges
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Yanghee Lee, the United Nations' special investigator on the Rohingya crisis in Burma (Myanmar), has been blocked from doing any further investigation by officials from Burma. She had previously made several invited visits to Burma as part of her investigation, and was recently invited to come again in January.
After being barred on Wednesday, Lee said that "there must be something terribly awful happening in Rakhine," referring to years of genocidal attacks on Muslims, especially Muslim Rohingyas, by Buddhists, led by led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," where 969 is a historic Buddhist sign, referring to the nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and nine qualities of the Buddhist community. "969" is supposedly a sign of peace and happiness, but Wirathu and the Burmese have turned "969" into a sign of genocide and ethnic cleansing. Buddha must be turning over in his grave.
In a statement, Lee said:
"I am puzzled and disappointed by this decision by the Myanmar Government. This declaration of non-cooperation with my mandate can only be viewed as a strong indication that there must be something terribly awful happening in Rakhine, as well as in the rest of the country.[After promising continued cooperation two weeks ago,] now I am being told that this decision to no longer cooperate with me is based on the statement I made after I visited the country in July. ...
The Government has repeatedly denied violations of human rights are occurring throughout Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine state. They have said that they have nothing to hide, but their lack of cooperation with my mandate and the fact-finding mission suggests otherwise."
What Lee said in July was that it was "unacceptable" that people meeting her were watched and even followed by agents.
Lee's official title is UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar. She has visited Burma six times since she began her mandate in June 2014, although the government has consistently refused access to some areas. United Nations and Reuters and Al-Jazeera (22-July)
Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, the UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights, says that after years Buddhist slaughter, rape and ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims, it's possible that Burma's leader, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, may face genocide charges, as well as Gen Aung Min Hlaing, the head of Burma's army.
Since 2011, I've been using the word "genocide" in an informal sense to describe the atrocities that Burmese Buddhists are conducting against Burma's Muslims, especially the Rohingya Muslims.
By 2013, thousands of Buddhists were making frenzied attacks on Muslims in cities across Burma, with multiple rapes, murders and atrocities, killing dozens. In one publicized event in the town of Meiktila, Buddhists took 20 Muslim boys from a madrassa, and hacked them to death, soaked their bodies in petrol and set them alight, leaving a blackened patch of ground.
This was a major milestone in Burma's genocide of Muslims, similar to Kristallnacht, when the Nazi Germans made the same kinds of frenzied, uncontrolled attacks on Jews in 1938.
These attacks were led by racist Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu, who calls himself the "Buddhist Osama bin Laden." He was pictured on the cover of Time Magazine on July 1, 2013, with a caption, "The Face of Buddhist Terror." He advocates the extermination of all Muslims in Burma, and many Buddhists are killing, raping and mutilating Muslims, burning down their homes and villages, because Wirathu tells them to do it.
During 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, the massive genocidal attacks by Burma's army on Rohingyas have driven over 600,000 Rohingyas into Bangladesh, killing, raping and mutilating them, burning down their homes and villages.
The United Nations became particularly alarmed in August 2017 when some Rohingya activists attacked some Burma border posts, triggering a massive increase in the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas. An analogy in the US would be that after Black Lives Matter killed a policemen, if the US army started entering black neighborhoods and killing, torturing and raping all the black civilian residents, including women and children.
Burma's Buddhist genocide of Muslims is the second-worst genocide so far this century, the worst being Bashar al-Assad's Shia/Alawite genocide of Sunnis in Syria. Aung San Suu Kyi is turning out to be the Hitler of Burma's genocide.
Although I've used the word "genocide" informally, Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein is suggesting that it may actually be proven formally in a court of law:
"For obvious reasons, if you're planning to commit genocide you don't commit it to paper and you don't provide instructions.The thresholds for proof are high. But it wouldn't surprise me in the future if a court were to make such a finding on the basis of what we see."
Zeid said that he spoke to Suu Kyi in February 2017, and asked her to stop the atrocities:
"I appealed to her to bring these military operations to an end. I appealed to her emotional standing ... to do whatever she could to bring this to a close, and to my great regret it did not seem to happen."
Ethnic cleansing "clearance operations" by Burma's (Myanmar's) army have driven some 620,000 ethnic Rohingyas from Rakhine State into Bangladesh, threatening to destabilize the entire region. BBC and News Corp (Australia) and Straits Times
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Dec-17 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) blocks UN Rohingya investigator, as genocide charges are raised thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Iraq's Baghdad government splits over role of Iran-backed Shia militias
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Thousands of Kurds attacked several offices of the main political parties of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the rioters were teachers, students and civil servants, protesting austerity and unpaid public sector salaries.
Iraqi Kurds have never gotten along well with any of their neighbors. During Iraq's last generational crisis war, the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, the climax occurred in 1988 when Saddam Hussein used WMDs (poison gas) on both the Kurds and the Iranians. Because the Kurds want to form an independent Kurdistan, containing pieces from Turkey and Iran as well as Iraq, all three countries have cooperated in putting sanctions on the Kurds.
Iraq's government in Baghdad allowed the Kurds to self-govern in some limited areas with the formation of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, the region of Iraq predominantly populated by Kurds.
When the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) captured Mosul in 2014, and took control of much of Iraq, the peshmerga, the Kurdish militias, were a crucial part of the military effort to recapture Iraq from ISIS.
However, the Kurds were never rewarded for their bravery. After Mosul was recaptured earlier this year, the KRG decided to a referendum on seceding from Iraq and forming an independent Kurdish state. This referendum was opposed almost universally in the international community, and it particularly alarmed all of Kurdistan's neighbors. So the Kurds might have gotten some economic benefits and some additional self-governance, but after the referendum passed on September 25, everybody seemed to ask, "You helped us beat ISIS, but what have you done for me lately?" Iraq, Turkey and Iran cooperated in putting harsh economic sanctions on Kurdistan, and Iraq launched a military operation that recaptured areas that the Kurds were occupying following the war against ISIS.
The sanctions caused Kurdistan's economy to suffer, and the military operation triggered fights between factions among the Kurds. The fighting has now gone on for two days. Since Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the Iran/Iraq war, there are many survivors of the war that do not want so see the current situation spiral into a bigger civil war. Rudaw (Kurdistan) and Reuters and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and The National (UAE)
Iraq's Shia militias, the Hashd al-Shaabi militia or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), with links to Iran, were also crucial to the defeat of ISIS in the last two years. However, the PMF were accused of massive human rights abuses, targeting ordinary Sunni citizens in several cities where they fought to expel ISIS.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, in 2014 called on the Iraqi people to take up arms against ISIS. Tens of thousands of Shia people answered his call that then resulted in the birth of the Hashd al-Shaabi.
Now that ISIS has been defeated, al-Sistani is praising the "historic achievement" of the Hashd forces, but is now saying that the time has come to merge the Hashd militias into the regular Iraqi army.
The Hashd have 140,000 registered fighters which is about half the size of the Iraqi army. Al-Sistani said that it is the duty of the state to now take care of the Hashd fighters financially and otherwise, and the families of those who lost their loved ones.
This call has renewed the political conflict between the powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, and the former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki. Supporters of the two held huge protests that turned violent earlier this year.
Al-Sadr, who has close links to the ayatollahs in Iran, supports the call. However, al-Maliki, who is building a coalition in preparation for next year's elections, wants to keep them out of the army, so that they will support him next year. If they were in the army, they would be prohibited from having political ties.
Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, and is in a period of massive political chaos similar to their last generational Awakening era in the 1930s, as I described in my 2007 article, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq." However, just as the political chaos of the 1930s did not spiral into war, it won't do so today either. Rudaw (Kurdistan)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Dec-17 World View -- Thousands of Kurds in violent protests against Kurdistan government in northern Iraq thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
China's media predict nuclear war in North Korea by March
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
New satellite images of the region surrounding Bhutan's Doklam Plateau reveal that China is resuming its military buildup, after pulling back from a military standoff with India during the summer. There are reports that China has positioned in the Doklam region more than 1,000 soldiers who are likely to remain in the area throughout winter for the first time. China built two helicopter platforms, dozens of houses and stores, and upgraded roads to cope with the very severe winter.
The military confrontation began suddenly and unexpectedly on June 16, when China sent troops and construction workers to begin road construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent intention of annexing the region. At Bhutan's request, India sent in troops to prevent the annexation.
There were no bullets fired, but there were reports of Indian and Chinese soldiers bumping each other with their chests to push each other back. The descriptions of the situation in the Indian media were restrained, to avoid inflaming the situation. The Chinese media were the opposite, with extremely belligerent and vitriolic editorials setting deadlines for India, threatening a Chinese military invasion of India that would destroy India's army, and warning India that its defeat would be even worse than India's defeat in a 1962 border war.
So when the crisis ended just as suddenly and unexpectedly on August 28, and analysts could only guess at the reasons. During those 73 days, it appeared that China and India were on the verge of a major border war, and it seemed that India would not back down for any reason. Part of the speculation for why China backed down was that a conflict would spill over into Kashmir or into the Indian Ocean, and China did not want a war at that time just before an international meeting to be held in Beijing, to be followed by the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee is scheduled for October 19.
The prosaic explanation was that China had backed down so that they could build up their military forces and try again. China says that the new military infrastructure and troops are for peaceful purposes, just as they claim for the South China Sea.
India's Lt Gen Abhay Krishna of the Eastern Command on Saturday said the Army is totally geared up to face any situation in the Doklam sector:
"The Indian Army is always in very high spirits, we are always ready to take on any mischief by anybody. I am not going to name anybody specifically. Territorial integrity is ingrained in our blood and for that we will go to any extent to ensure the territorial integrity."
Sputnik News (Moscow) and New Delhi TV and The Diplomat and Indian Express
Related Articles
 |
Last week, the foreign ministers of India and China met, and discussed Doklam. India's External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj held talks with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.
After the December 11 meeting, Swaraj said:
"Foreign Minister Wang Yi and I agreed that we should further strengthen our mutual trust to develop a better understanding between the two parties. And it will be better to meet again, and without agenda, which will help us to expand our mutual understanding."
However, Wang Yi's statement was considerably more blunt:
"The matter was finally settled peacefully through diplomatic means, reflecting the maturing of bilateral relations. However, lessons should be learned and should be avoided again."
What lessons was Wang referring to that should be learned? In a speech last week, Wang said:
"We handled the Indian border troops' trespass into China's Dong Lang (Dokalam) area in our national interest, on just grounds and with restraint.Through diplomatic means, we engaged with the Indian side and it withdrew its equipment and personnel."
A web site reader posted a comment about a time when he asked a Chinese girl whether America and China were going to war:
"I met a Chinese person at Toastmasters. I asked her this. Her reply was along the lines of 'There will be no war. America just has to grow up and learn its place.'"
Another web site reader responded to my observation that any criticism of China infuriates them. He wrote: "Spades don't like to be called a Spade. And the main reason they are so touchy is because they think they are the supreme, superior race. So the article's comparison of China to German Nazi National Socialism is spot on." Indian Express
Related Articles
A couple of days ago, I quoted Chinese experts who warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea.
On Sunday, an article in China state media Global Times quoted Lieutenant General Wang Hongguang as follows:
"The war on the Korean Peninsula might break out anytime between now and March next year," Wang said, stressing that "China should be psychologically prepared for a potential Korean war, and the Northeast China regions should be mobilized for that.""Such mobilization is not to launch a war, but for defensive purposes," he added.
There are two things of note:
In my article, I estimated that a war between the US and North Korea would begin within 6-18 months, though 3 months is a possibility. The time frame probably depends more on what North Korea does than anything else.
Wang suggests that the war would be localized. That may be true for a while, but once these things start, it would start spreading. I would expect it to reach Europe within at most two years. Global Times
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Dec-17 World View -- China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Nepal reacts to India's bungled meddling over the new constitution
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The country Nepal is a strip of land, about 500 miles long and 100 miles wide, that separates a part of the border between India from China's Tibet. With China and India on the verge of a border war, Nepal becomes extremely important strategically to both India and China.
Nepal recently held elections under a new constitution adopted in 2015. These elections will elect 275 members to the House of Representatives and 550 representatives to the assemblies of the seven newly-created provinces.
The elections have been won overwhelmingly by a "Left Alliance" of two hyphenated communist parties -- the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) and Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Center (MC). These two parties have been locked in adversarial conflict and rivalry for years, but they've put aside their differences in a marriage of convenience to form a governing coalition. The Left Alliance will control not only the national government, but also six of the seven provinces.
Analysts say that the emergence of the Left Alliance does not necessarily mean that Nepal's voters prefer communism to democracy. Instead, the vote express a new nationalism which has three key components – the search for political stability and peace, the demand for fast and comprehensive development and assertion against India.
For centuries, Nepal was governed by a Hindu monarchy with close ties to India. In 2001, Crown Prince Dipendra got drunk at a party and gunned down the entire royal family, and then killed himself. Dipendra's motive turned out to be that he had wanted to marry his girlfriend, Devyani Rana, but his parents had refused. This triggered a renewal of a Maoist insurgency that had begun in the 1990s.
This is Nepal's first free election in a secular republic, replacing the monarchy with an elected government. My República (Nepal) and The Wire (India) and Al Jazeera
Nepal has long been one of the world's poorest countries, and 2015 was a year with one major disaster after another.
Two massive earthquakes struck Nepal on April 25 and May 12, 2015. More than 8,800 people were killed, and 600,000 homes were flattened. Millions of people were left with inadequate food, clean water and shelter. Nepal still has not recovered from that disaster.
The earthquake came at a time when the government was in a state of almost total paralysis, because the constitutional transition Hindu monarchy to a secular republic was in process, triggering massive demonstrations, especially by the Madhesis, a mostly Hindu ethnic group in Nepal's Tarai region on the border with India.
The new constitution was adopted on September 17. On September 24, the Madhesis began massive demonstrations, blockading the truck traffic passing between India and Nepal. This was a disaster for Nepal's economy, which depends on imports from India for many goods, including petroleum and cooking gas, forcing many manufacturers to shut down.
Nepal blamed India for the border blockade, saying that India's prime minister Narendra Modi was using the blockade to force Nepal to eliminate clauses in the new constitution that the Madhesis claim discriminate against them. Some people say that the recent victory of the Left Alliance was a reaction to India's bungling two years ago in handling the blockade.
Nepal media are debating whether the election results mean that Nepal is moving away from India towards China. China has been trying to improve its influence in Nepal since the removal of the Hindu monarchy, and so the victory of the Left Alliance represents a kind of victory. It also allows politicians, even those who favor India, to say that the Left victory is a victory for nationalism and independence from the "Indian bully." However, the Madhesis and other Hindu ethnic groups form 40% of the population, and they would oppose choosing China over India.
Also, Nepal can't go too far in alienating India, because of the economic dependences. Nepal is a landlocked country, and the only way to transfer goods to or from the Indian Ocean is through India and the port of Vishakhapatnam on the Bay of Bengal.
Realizing the alarm that many people feel over their victory, the Left Alliance has released a statement:
"As per the directions made by the constitution of the Nepal, we will develop the relation with friendly nations especially the neighboring countries and the international unions and organizations on the basis of independent foreign policy."
The statement added, "We, the left power, are committed to form a stable government and fulfill the promises which we made before." My República (Nepal) and ANI (India)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Dec-17 World View -- Communists score major election wins in Nepal, possibly moving country towards China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Concerns grow over the threat of a North Korean nuclear reactor disaster
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Chinese government advisers are warning that "North Korea is a time bomb," and China must prepare for an unpreventable nuclear war on the Korean peninsula. China used to be able to control the North Korean government, but it was losing control, and "Northeast China should mobilize defenses for war."
Shi Yinhong, a university professor that advises the Beijing government, says that nuclear war is inevitable:
"Conditions on the peninsula now make for the biggest risk of a war in decades.North Korea is a time bomb. We can only delay the explosion, hoping that by delaying it, a time will come to remove the detonator."
The logic behind this claim is similar to the same logic that many American analysts have been using, and the same logic that I've been writing about. North Korea will not be dissuaded from its goal of having an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles pointed at the United States, which he will use in an extortion to gain control of South Korea, and he will sell the nuclear weapon and ballistic missile technology to rogue states like Iran and Venezuela. Trump will not allow this to happen, and so one way or another a war will begin in the next 6-18 months.
Nanjing University professor Zhu Feng said that no matter how minor the possibility, China should be prepared psychologically and practically for “a catastrophic nuclear conflict, nuclear fallout or a nuclear explosion":
"Why do we always act like ostriches? Why do we always believe a war won’t occur?What China needs is a sense of urgency about its declining influence in strategy related to the peninsula and the way it brings down China’s status and role in East Asian security issues."
Chinese analysts give as a principal cause of the imminent war the fact that the US and South Korea hold joint military exercises. South China Morning Post and Newsweek and Quartz and South China Morning Post (9-Dec)
A recent video went viral showing North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un standing next to an untested liquid-fueled missile, smoking a cigarette. The video prompted a torrent of tweets expressing regret that Kim’s lit cigarette had not "solved the problem for us."
The video illustrates the fact that North Korea does not take seriously the need to operate its nuclear reactors safely, as Western nations and China do. Even a small nuclear accident that could normally be contained could turn into a catastrophic disaster if North Korea did not respond quickly and correctly.
Even a small nuclear accident would generate widespread panic as word began to leak out, because of North Korea's lack of transparency and the fact that they would deny that anything is happening. In the case of Japan's Fukushima nuclear reactor disaster, Japan was completely transparent about what was going on, but there was still public panic. After a disaster in North Korean, the regime would suppress all reporting of the incident, and they would probably refuse help from outside countries. The resulting panic would spread into China, South Korea and Japan. 38 North and South China Morning Post
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Dec-17 World View -- Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Trump to target China's unfair trade policies in National Security Strategy
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
China's relations with Australia have taken a sharp downturn following the November publication of Australia's "2017 Foreign Policy White Paper," which harshly criticizes China's illegal militarization of the South China Sea. The White Paper says the following:
"The South China Sea is a major fault line in the regional order. Australia is not a claimant state and does not take sides in the competing claims. Like other non-claimant states, however, we have a substantial interest in the stability of this crucial international waterway, and in the norms and laws that govern it.We have urged all claimants to refrain from actions that could increase tension and have called for a halt to land reclamation and construction activities. Australia is particularly concerned by the unprecedented pace and scale of China’s activities. Australia opposes the use of disputed features and artificial structures in the South China Sea for military purposes. We support the resolution of differences through negotiation based on international law.
All claimants should clarify the full nature and extent of their claims according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Government reaffirms its position that the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on the Philippines South China Sea Arbitration is final and binding on both parties."
According to Australian analyst Nick Bisley, Australia in the past year has become increasingly outspoken in its criticism of Beijing’s behavior, particularly in the South China Sea, but also because of China's interference in Australian domestic affairs. According to Bisley:
"But after I recently spent a week in China talking to scholars, analysts and commentators, it is also clear that the sourness in Canberra is being reciprocated. The mood among Chinese elites ranges from head scratching puzzlement to outright hostility. The people involved in these discussions are Australia specialists, many have studied here, sent their children to study here and have a generally positive disposition toward to the country. Ordinarily, scholars from China tend to be cautious and often voice their opinions obliquely. Not this time.[Australia's] very public backing for the arbitration tribunal decision and its repeated figuring in public pronouncements appears to be a major concern. 'Australia is not a claimant, so why does it make it such an issue?' the Chinese wonder. Indeed, Australia has no disputes or conflicting security interests with China yet it repeatedly emphasizes that China is making the region less secure. This seems to get under the skin of many scholars and commentators."
The issue, of course, is that China is an international criminal according to a harsh July 2016 ruling by a Tribunal at the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea") The ruling eviscerated all of China's claims to the South China Sea, and declared its construction of artificial islands and military bases in international waters in the South China Sea to be illegal. Australia Foreign Policy White Paper
Pretty much any criticism of China infuriates them, but probably nothing infuriates them more than any mention of the July 2016 Tribunal ruling, which essentially made China an international criminal.
So if Australia is increasingly concerned about China's military threat to the region and the world, then it's not surprising that Australia has frequently made reference to the Tribunal ruling.
And if Australia is making frequent reference to the Tribunal ruling, then it's not surprising China is directing more and more of bottomless supply of fury at Australia. The Foreign Policy White Paper has drawn a particularly large tsunami of contemptuous criticism from China's media. These criticisms have called the white paper "irresponsible." It labeled Australia a "distant propaganda outpost" agitating against China.
It called Australia "ungrateful" for not appreciating all of the economic benefits they've had because of China, and threatened that China "could relegate ties with Australia to the back of the line, and ignore its immature outburst."
What I found very interesting about Bisley's remarks is that the Chinese are supposedly bewildered and puzzled by the criticism, since Australia isn't directly involved in the South China Sea. It's similar to when a man beats up his wife and then is bewildered and puzzled why anyone else should care, since they aren't involved.
The Australians are of course concerned that China's illegal militarization of the South China Sea could result in a regional war in which Australia will be forced to participate. In fact, Australia is directly involved in the South China Sea as $3 trillion of commercial traffic passes through it each year. China's military belligerence in the South China Sea is of concern to Australia, the whole region, and the whole world.
For Chinese scholars, analysts and commentators to be bewildered and puzzled by Australia's concern is just a sign of how delusional the Chinese people are, something that I've written about many times as typical in a generational Crisis era. In the case of the Tribunal ruling, some of China's evidence to support it claims turns out to be delusional or a complete hoax. Many Chinese people believe that their dictatorship is inherently stronger than the "weak" Western democracies, and that they'll win any war easily.
Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism. China is becoming a military dictatorship, is annexing other countries' territories as Nazi Germany did in Czechoslovakia and Poland, and is adopting strong nationalist, xenophobic and racist views targeting the Tibetans, Uighurs, Japanese, South Koreans, Philippine people, and Vietnamese.
As I've written in the past, China is behaving in a highly emotional, irrational, panicky, nationalistic manner, issuing delusional and fabricated evidence to support claims that everybody knows are false claims. China is preparing for a war that it believes it will win, but instead will cause the worst catastrophe in history, to itself and the entire world. China Daily and Lowy Institute (Australia) and Australian Broadcasting
Related Articles
China's aggressive military buildup in the South China Sea has been out of the news for a while, but not because it hasn't been occurring.
New imagery released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) show that China has been aggressively implementing illegal offensive and defensive weapons systems on their artificial islands. According to AMTI:
"AMTI has identified all the permanent facilities on which China completed or began work since the start of the year. These include buildings ranging from underground storage areas and administrative buildings to large radar and sensor arrays. These facilities account for about 72 acres, or 290,000 square meters, of new real estate at Fiery Cross, Subi, and Mischief Reefs in the Spratlys, and North, Tree, and Triton Islands in the Paracels. This does not include temporary structures like storage containers or cement plants, or work other than construction, such as the spreading of soil and planting of grass at the new outposts."
According to AMTI, "China is poised to substantially boost its radar and signals intelligence capabilities." There's an irony here that this is the same kind of capability that comes with America's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile defense systems. China has been infuriated that there are THAAD systems deployed in South Korea, but at least those are legal. China's radar systems in the South China Sea are a violation of international law. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS/AMTI) and Reuters
Related Articles
President Donald Trump will target China by alleging unfair trade policies in a National Security Strategy (NSS) to be released on Monday. Trump will accuse China of exploiting the international trade system. According to the current draft:
"The United States helped to expand the liberal economic trading system to countries that did not share our values in the hopes that these states would liberalize their economic and political practices, and provide commensurate benefits to the United States. Experience now suggests that these countries distorted and undermined key economic institutions without prompting significant reform of their economies or politics."
Since taking office, Trump has sought to maintain friendly relations with China, even treating China's president Xi Jinping as a kind of BFF, in order to elicit cooperation on the North Korea nuclear missile crisis.
This new NSS statement appears to be at least a partial U-turn on that policy, at a time when relations between Australia and China are reaching a new low. Free Beacon
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Dec-17 World View -- China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
European Union continues to face crises regarding migration
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
After receiving millions of migrants in 2015 from the Mideast and northern Africa, the European Union implemented some stopgap measures to control the situation.
Each of these methods has been extremely successful in significantly reducing the flow of migrants from Turkey and Libya, respectively. However, in a sense they haven't solved the problem at all, but instead stretched it out.
Furthermore, with winter approaching, the season of heaviest migration is ending for now, but there will be a new surge of migration within just a few months.
Current and approaching problems include the following:
Al-Jazeera and PRI and Amnesty International and EurActiv (20-Oct) and Reuters
With the vast majority of migrants to Europe reaching Greece or Italy first, these two countries have been overwhelmed. Both countries have begged for help from the European Commission (EC), but there's been little help beyond rhetoric.
In 2015, the EU adopted a migrant quota system last year that was supposed to relocate 160,000 refugees from Greece and Italy to other EU countries. The plan fell apart because few countries were willing to accept their quotas, and Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania refused to resettle any refugees at all. In the end, only about 30,000 refugees were ever resettled under this plan.
At an EU summit on Thursday that was supposed to be a show of EU solidarity and unity, especially with the Brexit talks going on. But bitter political divisions erupted after EU President Donald Tusk described the refugee quota program as "divisive and ineffective," and called for it to be replaced.
According to a letter issued by Tusk, the migrant program will once again reach crisis levels by June of next year:
"After the unprecedented migratory pressure on its external border in 2015, the European Union and its Member States are gradually restoring control. However, the migration challenge is here to stay for decades, especially due to the demographic trends in Africa. Despite our efforts, the smugglers are working energetically to exploit further vulnerabilities at our borders. A crisis situation can reoccur and so in order to prepare ourselves, we need to categorically strengthen our migration policy. To achieve this, we should first look at what has and has not worked in the past two years. On this basis, we should establish an effective and sustainable migration policy based on secure external borders and the prevention of mass arrivals. It also requires finding a consensus by June 2018 on the internal dimension of our migration policy, based on the concepts of responsibility and solidarity."
Tusk says the existing quota system has to be scrapped and replaced by a new system before June 2018. He concludes by saying:
"On the basis of the discussion, Leaders will return to these issues with a view to seeking a consensus in June 2018. If there is no solution by then, including on the issue of mandatory quotas, the President of the European Council will present a way forward."
The quota system has essentially been a fiction, but a fiction that allowed the EU member countries to pretend to their domestic audience that the problems had been solved. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have led criticism of Tusk's proposal. Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras said that Tusk's comments were "aimless, ill-timed and pointless." Italy's prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni, said, “We will continue to insist that a commitment on the relocation of refugees is needed.”
Three countries, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, came out in favor of Tusk's proposal because they have no intention of implementing a quota system anyway. In explaining why Poland would not accept any refugees, Poland's prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said, "It is worth investing considerable amounts of money in helping refugees in (regions) they are fleeing from. The help on the ground there is much more effective."
The Czech Republic's prime minister Andrej Babis, said that "It won't happen," and any attempt to impose "nonsensical" quotas in a majority vote would only widen the divisions in the EU.
In response to Hungary's refusal to accept refugees, Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte has described Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán as ‘shameless’ for refusing to accept any refugees and attempting to buy off his obligations with money. Guardian (London) and Reuters and Dutch News
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Dec-17 World View -- Despite growing migration crises, European Union bitterly divided over policy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Palestinians disappointed by final communiqué of OIC Summit
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) held an "extraordinary" meeting on Wednesday in Istanbul, Turkey, to protest last week's declaration by president Donald Trump to order the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel.
A furious Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas announced that because the United States is biased in favor of Israel, it will be shut out as a mediator in the peace process:
"The decision violated international law.We shall not accept any role for the United States in the peace process. They have proven their full bias in favor of Israel.
Jerusalem is and will forever be the capital of the Palestinian state... There will be no peace, no stability without that.
We will tell the Israelis that we are no longer committed to any agreement from Oslo until today."
Abbas said that he had promised the US not to try to become a full member of the United Nations, but now said that the Palestinian Authority intended to return to the United Nations to to gain full membership:
"We agreed with America we would not join international institutions on the condition that American does not transfer its embassy, does not initiate any action against our office in Washington, and orders Israel to freeze settlement building.If there is no Palestinian state along the June 1967 borders with Jerusalem as its capital, there will not be peace in the region, in the territories or in the world. They must choose."
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Israel a "terror state" and called on world powers to recognize east Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine:
"With this decision [by the US to recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital], Israel, which is responsible for occupation, blockade, unlawful settlements, home demolitions, evictions, land asset appropriations, disproportionate violence and murders, was rewarded for all its terrorist actions. ...I invite all countries supporting international law to recognize Jerusalem as the occupied capital of Palestine. We cannot be late any more.
The process to include Palestine in international agreements and institutions should be sped up."
The meeting was attended by some 22 heads of state or government, including those from Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sudan, Somalia, Azerbaijan, and Jordan. In addition, some 25 foreign ministers, including from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Kazakhstan, are expected to attend. Saudi Arabia will be represented by its Islamic affairs minister. Organization of Islamic Cooperation and Deutsche Welle and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel
For several years, Palestinians have been expressing frustration that the "Palestinian issue" has been largely forgotten by the international media. Palestinian-Israeli relations used to be one of the top four or five international stories every day, but in the last 2-3 years that issue has been displaced by the war in Syria, Brexit, the North Korean crisis, and other crises.
Palestinian hopes were raised in July, when the thousands of Palestinians poured into Jerusalem for "days of rage," after Israel installed metal detectors outside the al-Aqsa Mosque / Temple Mount compound, in order to deter terrorists. This was the worst violence in Jerusalem for years, killing several people and injuring hundreds. The Palestinian cause was once again an international news story, and they hoped that it would remain so.
The story fizzled out, and when Trump announced that the US would recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, Palestinian leaders called for more "days of rage," hoping at least to duplicate the intensity of last July's protests, but instead they fizzled out after a couple of days.
Led by fiery speeches from Abbas and Erdogan, the hope was that this summit would reignite international attention. Here are some excerpts from the resolutions in the final communiqué:
"1- Reject and condemn in the strongest terms the unilateral decision by the President of the United States America recognizing Al-Quds [Jerusalem] as the so-called capital of Israel, the occupying Power; reject it as null and void legally, and consider it an attack on the historical, legal, natural and national rights of the Palestinian people, a deliberate undermining of all peace efforts, an impetus to extremism and terrorism, and a threat to international peace and security; ...3- Reaffirm our attachment to the just and comprehensive -peace based on the two-state solution with east Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Palestine. ...
6- Hold the US Administration fully liable for all the consequences of not retracting from this illegal decision; and regard it as an announcement of the US Administration's withdrawal from its role as sponsor of peace and its realization among all stakeholders and an encouragement of Israel, the occupying Power, to continue its policy of colonialism, settlement, apartheid and the ethnic cleansing it has been practicing in the occupied Palestinian territory in 1967, and in the City of Al-Quds Al-Sharif at its core; ...
8- Declare East Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Palestine and invite all countries to recognize the State of Palestine and East Jerusalem as its occupied capital."
Many analysts consider the OIC Summit to be a failure for several reasons.
First, it was missing important leaders, notably from Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Both of these countries have recently developed close relations with Israel, and are thought to have given tacit approval to the Jerusalem declaration before it was made.
Second, the final communiqué was entirely symbolic. It made the usual boilerplate condemnations of Israel and the United States, but there were no significant follow-on steps listed.
Third, the recommendation to remove the US as Mideast mediator and replace it with someone else is completely unrealistic. There was talk of using the United Nations as a mediator, but that will never produce anything but rhetoric.
Fourth, al-Jazeera "man in the street" interviews in Jerusalem after the Summit ended indicated that Palestinians were completely unimpressed with the Summit, because it didn't accomplish anything. OIC Final Communiqué (PDF) and AP and Al-Jazeera
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Dec-17 World View -- Organization of Islamic Cooperation throws a temper tantrum over Jerusalem thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
China unification continues to lose support among the people of Taiwan
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
China’s air force has conducted “island encirclement patrols” through international airspace near Taiwan and between the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Miyako in the East China Sea. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) sent two Xian long-range bombers, two fighter jets, an electronic countermeasures aircraft, and an electronic intelligence plane.
China has conducted this kinds of patrols before, but these patrols were considerably more extensive than in the past. According to China's state media:
"The PLA Air Force focused on combat readiness and has conducted a series of offshore and maritime training. The PLA warplanes' flight paths are continuously extended, with combat readiness growing accordingly.The PLA Air Force's actions are justified and consistent with international laws and practices. The PLA Air Force will stick to its set plans and continue to fly further and deeper.
The air force started regular high seas training in 2015. The PLA planes circling the island of Taiwan will become routine during their training."
China has conducted numerous similar patrols near Taiwan this year, saying such practices have been normalized as it presses ahead with a military modernization program that includes building aircraft carriers and stealth fighters to give it the ability to project power far from its shores. The Diplomat and Reuters and Global Times
The latest encirclement patrol is thought to be a show of force following an explicit threat made last week by a Chinese diplomat in Washington.
Li Kexin, a Chinese embassy official, last Friday said that he has been thanking Congressional aides for providing China with a reason to use force to resolve the Taiwan question.
"I may have to thank you American friends. I said: ‘Are you not going to send military vessels to Taiwan, to [Taiwan's port of] Kaohsiung?' If you send military vessels over there, [you] will activate the Anti-Secession Law [of China]."
Picking this apart, Li is making a joke. He's referring to suggestions from American officials that the US Navy should make port calls at ports in Taiwan, as it does in many other countries. Li is saying that any US naval vessel at Taiwan's largest port, Kaohsiung, would trigger China's Anti-Secession Law, followed by an invasion by China's armed forces to take control of Taiwan.
The Anti-secession law provoked massive Taiwan riots when it passed in March, 2005. It orders the army to invade Taiwan if any Taiwanese official makes any move toward independence, whether by word or by deed.
Excerpts of the law are as follows:
"Article 2: There is only one China in the world. Both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China's sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no division. Safeguarding China's sovereignty and territorial integrity is the common obligation of all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included.Taiwan is part of China. The state shall never allow the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces to make Taiwan secede from China under any name or by any means. ...
Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
I've written about the Anti-Secession law many times since 2005, and I've pointed out many times that statements by Taiwanese officials seemed to be promoting independence, and that therefore already should trigger the Anti-Secession Law. On the other hand, it's hard to see why a port call by a naval vessels, so that the American soldiers could visit Taipei's bars and perhaps get a drink or a date, would be promoting independence at all.
Since the threat was issued by a low-level Chinese diplomat in Washington, and was phrased as a joke, it's hard to see the threat as intended to be serious. In fact, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman seemed to play down the threat when asked about it:
"The position of the Chinese government on the Taiwan issue, which I believe you and all the journalists here are quite clear about, is consistent and clear. We will continue adhering to the policy of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems" in an effort to advance the peaceful development of cross-straits relations and promote the process of peaceful reunification of our motherland. Meanwhile, we will firmly uphold national sovereignty and territorial integrity and never tolerate the recurrence of the historical tragedy of national division."
However, China's state media Global Times is issuing a veiled warning that Taiwan's ruling DPP party and the US do not understand the full impact of the anti-secession law, and that an invasion could come at any time:
"The island under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has become deficient of both direction and sense of security.The Chinese mainland has never given up the option of Taiwan reunification by force, which is clear to people across the Taiwan Straits. But Taiwan is not sure what will prompt the PLA's actions while the DPP has been deceiving Taiwanese that the island will stay safe whatever it does.
Taiwan knows so little of the mainland's Anti-Secession Law. The DPP is already approaching the boundary of the law and leading Taiwan to a wrong direction. The sustainability of the island's development remains uncertain.
Li's words have sent a warning to Taiwan and drew a clear red line. If Taiwan attempts to hold an independence referendum or other activities in pursuit of de jure "Taiwan independence," the PLA will undoubtedly take action.
This is the cornerstone of Beijing's policy on Taiwan that can't be shaken and also the will of the entire Chinese nation. ...
Li's words are like warning bells on Taiwan authorities considering independence by a salami-slicing strategy. Taiwan is facing what Peking faced in 1949 - being encircled by mainland forces. Any move that oversteps the boundary will be in vain."
Maritime Executive and Reuters and China Embassy (15-Mar-2005) and China's Foreign Ministry and Global Times
As I've been describing for years, Taiwan's attitudes toward unifying Taiwan with China have been increasingly favoring independence, as younger generations with no memory of the Chinese civil war displace the survivors that war, when they fled Mao Zedong and China's mainland in 1949 for the island of Formosa, which eventually became part of the current Taiwan.
Taiwan's current government party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has favored Taiwan's independence since it became prominent in the 1990s, as a reaction to China's Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
The opposing party is Kuomintang (KMT), which was the party formed by the Chinese who fled Mao for Formosa. They have traditionally favored Taiwan's unification with China, with the caveat that they consider Taiwan's to be the legitimate government of all of China.
The name-calling between the DPP and KMT has been pretty harsh over the years, so I was a bit surprised to read the following in a Taipei News news story about the invasion threat:
"Meanwhile, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Culture and Communications Committee deputy director-general Hung Meng-kai said that the KMT would not tolerate any threats or finger-pointing aimed at the Republic of China’s [Taiwan's] homeland or the security of its people.The DPP administration should face up to the importance of maintaining peaceful cross-strait relations and avoid any unnecessary misunderstandings that could cause irrepressible losses to Taiwan, he added."
I interpret this as a sign that China's unending stream of belligerent threats aimed at Taiwan is causing the KMT and DPP to move closer together and become more unified in opposing unification with China. This isn't the least bit surprising in view of China's extremely vitriolic attacks on Taiwan's politicians, especially DPP politicians.
Chinese officials are aware of this trend, and although they pay lip service to "peaceful unification," everybody is well aware that there will never be peaceful unification. China is biding its time, waiting for the right trigger to justify an invasion. It's possible, though unlikely, that a mere port call would be enough to trigger a major war, though anything is possible. Taipei Times and China Policy Analysis (22-Mar-2016) and The Diplomat
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Dec-17 World View -- China's warplanes conduct 'encirclement' patrols around Taiwan's and Japan's islands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Pakistan alarmed about a Chinese 'debt trap'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has almost become an erotic fantasy. It's a $55-60 billion 20-year project that will supposedly build a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese investment, supplies and interests.
For economic basket case Pakistan, the benefits are obvious -- a tsunami of money that will overwhelm its existing debt problems, for example allowing easy payment of the $6.1 billion that Pakistan owes to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The benefits are also obvious for China. The transportation networks from China to the Indian Ocean will connect China economically and militarily to its other ports and bases in the Indian Ocean, bypassing the risks of naval travel associated with problems like the South China Sea, the Straits of Malacca, and the waters around India.
But since the agreement was signed in March, China has become alarmed by the potential problems in two major areas: corruption and terrorism.
The CPEC project will bring thousands of Chinese workers into Pakistan, particularly into Balochstan, where most of the CPEC work will be performed.
As we reported in June, the ISIS-linked Al Alami offshoot of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJA) is believed responsible for the abduction and execution of two Chinese nationals working in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochstan.
LeJ is a terror group that has vowed to exterminate all Shias in Pakistan, and has carried out numerous terrorist actions targeting Shias and Sufis. But now LeJA is apparently turning its attention from slaughtering Shias and Sufis in Pakistan to the slaughter of thousands of Chinese workers and families who have come to Balochistan to work on CPEC.
Four days ago, China warned its Chinese citizens in Pakistan of plans plans for a series of imminent "terrorist attacks" on Chinese workers there:
"It is understood that terrorists plan in the near term to launch a series of attacks against Chinese organizations and personnel in Pakistan.The embassy alerts all Chinese organizations and citizens in Pakistan to stay vigilant, safeguard personal security, reduce time spent outside and avoid going to crowded places as much as possible."
There have been reports that China's Uighur separatist group the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) had “sneaked into Pakistan” and posed a threat to Chinese nationals.
On November 20, China issued "new guidelines" for the CPEC project, stipulating greater involvement of Pakistan's army in the project to improve the security of Chinese nationals.
It's worth pointing out that Pakistan's army has not been successful in preventing terror attacks on its own civilian population, and has been accused of distinguishing between "bad terrorists," who perpetrate terrorist attacks within Pakistan, and "good terrorists," who perpetrate terrorist attacks within India and Pakistan. It's possible that these "good terrorists" are now turning their attention to the thousands of Chinese workers moving into Balochistan, near the border with Afghanistan.
South China Morning Post (9-June) and Reuters
In a recent speech, Mohammad Zubair, the governor of Pakistan's Sindh province, said that the world was witnessing a historic moment, thanks to China's mega-investment plans, which will make Pakistan a regional leader. According to Zubair:
"Pakistan’s economy was facing uncertain situation in 2013. The government worked day and night in its first three years to revive country’s economy and our hard work has put the economy on the path of prosperity. Pakistan Stock exchange is now the best stock exchange of region and its rise is a proof of the government’s successful economic policies."
So Pakistani officials were shocked on November 20, when China unexpectedly withheld funds for continuing development of three projects under CPEC, citing massive graft and corruption, and laid out "new guidelines" for how funds for the CPEC project will be disbursed. Previously approved financing will have to be resubmitted through new procedures before funds can be committed.
China has become alarmed by the volatility of Pakistan's civilian government, including the dismissal of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on charges of graft and corruption, after some of his financial deal were revealed by the Panama Papers. The terror threats against Chinese citizens in Pakistan is one reason why China is stipulating greater involvement of Pakistan's military, while another reason is that China has lost faith in the civilian government and wants the army to take responsibility for the project.
According to an analyst:
"Had corruption been the reason behind the Chinese step (to block funds), it would, or perhaps should, have happened in July, when in the context of the Panama Papers, the former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his relatives were charged with financial irregularities and corruption, which prompted the Pakistani Supreme Court to declare Nawaz Sharif 'unfit' for political office, resulting in his dismissal from the Office of the Prime Minister of the country."
Despite the temporary cutoff of funds, a Chinese official visiting Islamabad sought to reassure Pakistanis that all was well, and that China wanted to build "a clean corridor, a corridor of integrity":
"I want to express our strong conviction and determination to press ahead the CPEC to deliver more benefits to the people of Pakistan. ...We want to build a CPEC that is a clean corridor, a corridor of integrity.
We should also guard against the interference from external forces and also prevent the domestic disturbances ... to promote the CPEC construction, so that we can make CPEC a pathway of common development, a pathway of shared fruits and the shared future."
The unexpected cutoff of funds was a strong message to Pakistan that China is paying the money, and China is dictating the terms, and the project will be done China's way or not at all. Dawn (Pakistan) and Daily Times (Pakistan) and Times of India and Express Tribune (Pakistan)
As time goes by and the euphoria about China's $55 billion investment in Pakistan begins to where off, some people are beginning to wonder if CPEC will actually be a financial disaster for Pakistan.
We've already described what happened with Sri Lanka, when China invested $1.2 billion in Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport in 2009. The plan was that revenue generated by the seaport would be used to repay the Chinese, and the surplus would bring wealth and happiness to all Sri Lankans. It didn't turn out that way, and the project turned out to be a "debt trap." Sri Lanka couldn't repay the loan, and now China has taken control the seaport and the surrounding area. It's been a disaster for Sri Lanka.
China's CPEC investment is supposed to be paid off the same way. The CPEC projects would generate revenue from trucks carrying goods along the CPEC roads and highways. According to analyst estimates, this turns out to be a fantasy, based on the most optimistic assumptions possible, just as happened with the Sri Lanka seaport project. If any of these super-optimistic assumptions fail, which is what usually happens in real life, then Pakistan's current debt of $6.1 billion to the IMF will look like chicken feed. Instead of being a financial bonanza, the debt burden will crush Pakistan's economy.
The IMF has examined the CPEC plans and is said to be "appalled" at the implications of the project. Its main concern was that Pakistan’s repayment capacity will remain weak, as the IMF does not see any major increase in exports in the near future. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (26-Oct)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Dec-17 World View -- Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
India's alarm grows over spread of China's 'Maritime Silk Road'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
China on Saturday formally handed control of its southern port of Hambantota in return for $292,097,400.00, as the first payment on a 99-year lease.
In 2009, China invested $1.2 billion in the port as part of its "string of pearls" strategy to surround India with ports accessible to China's navy. Sri Lanka had expected to repay the debt through profits earned by the port, but the slowdown in trade throughout the entire region in the last few years has meant that Sri Lanka has been unable to repay the debt. The result was that Sri Lanka's government has been forced to give China a 99-year lease to take over the port.
The announcement in January of this year triggered violent protests by thousands of Sri Lanka's Buddhist monks and anti-government protesters. Protestors said that thousands of Sri Lankans will lose their homes because of the project.
And then thousands of Chinese families will migrant to the land adjacent to the port, establishing a "Chinese colony" on Sri Lankan soil that will grow and can never be removed.
Many Sri Lankans are accusing China of having purposely set a "debt trap" in 2009, loaning money at extremely high interest rates, knowing that Sri Lanka would be unable to repay the debt, and would be forced to give away Sri Lankan assets to China.
However, Sri Lanka's prime minister Ranil Wickremesingh sees the project in a much more positive light:
"The unity government expects to develop and operate the Hambantota Port to make it a main port in the Indian Ocean. ... There will be industrialization in the area which will lead to economic development and promote tourism."The government pledged to pay the debt taken by the previous government for these projects loans. With this agreement we have started to pay back those loans. We are going to develop the Hambantota port without burdening the masses. We get US$ 300 million today. We deposit this amount in foreign reserves. The future generation can go forward without a burden. We have taken steps to make Sri Lanka the hub of the Indian Ocean. We thank the Chinese government and its representatives at this occasion."
The government will receive another 10 percent, or around $100 million, in a month and another $585 million in six months. Colombo Page (Sri Lanka) and South China Morning Post and The Hindu
China's Maritime Silk Road, also known as the "String of Pearls," is a sea-based network of shipping lanes and port developments throughout the Pacific and Indian oceans to the Mediterranean Sea and Europe. The port in Sri Lanka adds to ports that China controls in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan and Djibouti. China even has a controlling stake in Greece's port of Piraeus on the Mediterranean Sea.
India has been increasingly alarmed about being encircled by China's "One Belt One Road" (OBOR) project, including the Maritime Silk Road. Sri Lanka has attempted to allay India’s security concerns, Sri Lanka has repeatedly claimed that no Chinese naval facility would be permitted. However, India remains concerned that one day China's influence will reach a point where Sri Lanka can't say no.
This situation has resulted in a new controversy: India wants to buy the Rajapaksa International Airport, which is adjacent to the Port of Hambantota.
Rajapaksa International Airport is being called the "world's emptiest airport." The port is said to be beautiful, and a tourist attraction. But it's almost completely unused. It has a full complement of employees, most of whom stand looking bored, but it handles only one international flight per week. The airport was built along with the port, and it's part of the financial disaster that has resulted from the project, and forced Sri Lanka to lease the port to China.
It's not known what India plans to do with the airport, but it's suspected that India wants to keep it empty to prevent its use by Chinese warplanes.
The port deal with China was signed almost ten years ago when the prime minister was Mattala Rajapaksa, who named the airport after himself. But now his son, Namal Rajapaksa, who an opposition MP who may one day become prime minister, is demanding that the deal with India be cancelled, warning that the government should not to allow the country become a "pawn" in international power politics, saying that the government decision on the airport would lead to serious national security and defense implications, with Chinese and Indian forces in close proximity to one another. India Times and Lowy Institute (Australia) and Press Trust of India
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Dec-17 World View -- China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Trump's proclamation hardens splits among Arab countries
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Wednesday's proclamation by president Donald Trump to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel, and to relocate the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, has roiled international media and politicians around the world.
International reaction was negative to the point of being hysterical.
Pope Francis said:
"I cannot silence my deep concern over the situation that has emerged in recent days. At the same time, I appeal strongly for all to respect the city's status quo, in accordance with the relevant UN resolutions."
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said:
"[The announcement] has a very worrying potential impact. It is a very fragile context and the announcement has the potential to send us backwards to even darker times than the ones we are already living in." The worst thing that could happen now is an escalation of tensions around the holy places and in the region because what happens in Jerusalem matters to the whole region and the entire world."
Britain's Labor shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said that he had taken a "hammer blow" to the peace process, and that "He is setting it back decades."
Although these remarks are all underpinned by the usual hate-Israel hate-Trump hate-America attitudes that are prevalent, there is an underlying logic: It's pretty clear that the Mideast is headed for all-out war, and the remarks reflect a fear that Trump's announcement will trigger that war.
In fact, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, called for a new "intifada", or uprising:
"The American decision is an aggression against our people. It's a declaration of war against our Palestinian people,We should call for and we should work on launching an intifada in the face of the Zionist enemy"
Haniya has repeatedly been trying to incite an intifada. News stations like the BBC and al-Jazeera were almost gleefully reporting anti-Israeli marches and riots in countries from Indonesia to Germany.
But that was on the first day. By Saturday, the third day, almost all the protests appeared to have fizzled out, as reported by the BBC and al-Jazeera with a tone of disappointment.
A number of commentators tried to give reasons why the protests had fizzled out. They all gave some version of the following reasons:
These reasons are ironic because if the new intifada had taken off, and there were major Palestinian street protests with rioting and demonstrations, then the same analysts would have explained that with exactly the same list of reasons.
The real reason is that it's impossible to predict the exact timing of popular street protests, any more than you can predict the exact timing of stock market crashes. You can predict that they're coming with absolute certainly, but you don't know if it will be next week, next month, or next year.
None of the news shows that I heard attempted to explain the logic of Trump's proclamation, as he stated in his speech:
Presidents issued these waivers under the belief that delaying the recognition of Jerusalem would advance the cause of peace. Some say they lacked courage, but they made their best judgments based on facts as they understood them at the time. Nevertheless, the record is in. After more than two decades of waivers, we are no closer to a lasting peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. It would be folly to assume that repeating the exact same formula would now produce a different or better result.Therefore, I have determined that it is time to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. ...
I've judged this course of action to be in the best interests of the United States of America and the pursuit of peace between Israel and the Palestinians. This is a long-overdue step to advance the peace process and to work towards a lasting agreement. ...
That is why, consistent with the Jerusalem Embassy Act, I am also directing the State Department to begin preparation to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This will immediately begin the process of hiring architects, engineers, and planners, so that a new embassy, when completed, will be a magnificent tribute to peace."
In other words, as I've been saying for years, and as pretty much everybody knows by this time, there is zero probability that the "peace process" between Israel and the Palestinians is going to achieve anything. I had to laugh when one analyst was asked whether the peace process was already dead, said that was true, but Trump's announcement makes it even less likely. I guess this analyst wasn't aware that if the probability of an event occurring is already zero, then it can't go any lower, and so Trump's proclamation would leave the chances of a successful peace process unchanged.
But carrying this logic one step further, if the probability of a successful peace agreement is zero, then the probability could go up, and Trump's proclamation might change the politics in the region to make a peace treaty possible. That in fact is what Trump is claiming, and there are reports that the administration will be presenting a new peace plan soon.
Trump is using exactly the same kind of logic with respect to North Korea. After three decades of appeasement of North Korea, we're headed for a disaster when North Korea will have an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles pointed at the United States, which he will try to use in an extortion to gain control of South Korea, and he will sell the nuclear weapon and ballistic missile technology to rogue states like Iran and Venezuela. Trump's tweets have been very aggressive and threatening toward North Korea, much to the dismay of the international community, but the objective is to try something different from the policies that have been failing for three decades.
Unfortunately, the Generational Dynamics prediction doesn't change. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
Trump's proclamation about Jerusalem, and Trump's tweets about North Korea could change the scenario by which the Generational Dynamics predictions occur, but the final outcomes cannot change. And no one can predict what will trigger the coming Mideast war. So it's possible that Trump's critics will turn out to be right, and that his proclamation will turn out to be the trigger for new street riots next week, and for the coming war. White House and Sky News and BBC and Times of Israel and Debka (Israel)
Related Articles
No Arab country could publicly support Trump's proclamation, or even fail to criticize as the latest blow to Palestinian dreams. Doing so would create an enormous backlash within the Arab community. However, it's turning out that the proclamation has been splitting Arab countries along lines that we've seen before.
The key is Saudi Arabia. Officials representing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) described the decision as "unjustified and irresponsible" and "a big step back in efforts to advance the peace process and is a violation of the historically neutral American position on Jerusalem."
But behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia is said to be "on board" with the decision and the broader US strategy. Saudi Arabia has for decades depended heavily on the United States and the west for security, which the West provides in exchange for a reliable supply of Mideast oil. Furthermore, MBS and Israel are becoming very strongly aligned with regard to what they see as their greatest common existential threat: Iran.
So Saudi Arabia has provided a muted criticism to the proclamation, and so have the UAE and Egypt. These are the countries that implemented a land, sea and air blockade against Qatar last summer, and that blockade is still in place.
On the other side, we see Iran, Jordan and Turkey harshly critical. These are the same countries on the other side of the Saudi blockade. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said:
"[Trump is] throwing the region into a ring of fire. What do you want to do Mr Trump? What kind of an approach is this? Political leaders exist not to create struggles but to make peace."
When I can, I like to quote Marwan Bishara, the principal analyst from Qatar-based al-Jazeera, and clearly represents the Qatar position. Bishara hates Israel a great deal, but he hates the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas even more because he sees them as traitors, selling out the Palestinians to Israel.
On Saturday, Bishara said that Saudi Arabia and Trump are going to give half of the West Bank to Israel, and that "The Saudis are sacrificing Palestine to create some sort of a front against Iran." Reuters and Middle East Monitor and Reuters and Debka (7-Dec)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Dec-17 World View -- Protests fizzle 3 days after Trump's Jerusalem announcement was universally condemned thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Violence continues to spread in countries across Africa
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The worst attack on United Nations peacekeepers in recent history killed 15 people and wounded 54 on Thursday evening in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in Kivu state, near the border with Rwanda and Uganda.
UN secretary-general António Guterres made a standard statement expressing outrage:
"These deliberate attacks against UN peacekeepers are unacceptable and constitute a war crime. I condemn this attack unequivocally. There must be no impunity for such assaults, here or anywhere else. ...These brave women and men are putting their lives on the line every day across the world to serve peace and to protect civilians."
Officials in Tanzania expressed shock as well, since 14 of the deaths were of peacekeepers from Tanzania.
There are 15 UN peacekeeping missions, and the largest of them, with 15,000 personnel, is the DRC mission Monusco (United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DR Congo), with 1,000 troops from Tanzania.
It's estimated that there are some 120 armed groups in eastern DRC, described as mostly ragtag groups of 60-70 people each.
In this case the suspected attackers are the Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF), a group of Islamists formed in the late 1990s in western Uganda to fight the government of Uganda. However, a number of analysts say other militia and elements of Congo’s own army have also been involved.
DRC's president Joseph Kabila is following the standard pattern of African nation leaders of refusing to step down, benefiting from massive corruption, and using massive violence against the opposition to stay in power.
Kabila has stated that he does not want any UN forces in his country, and so it's entirely plausible, though unproven, that Kabila ordered his army to cooperate with the ADF in Thursday's massacre of the UN peacekeepers.
Kabila's bloodiest violence is in the opposition stronghold, the central province of Kasai, where more than 3,000 people have been killed in escalating violence blamed on a government-sponsored militia. The UN has identified more than 80 mass graves and said it had found toddlers with limbs chopped off and pregnant women with their bellies sliced open, their unborn babies mutilated.
The violence has resulted in 3.9 million people forced to flee their homes to escape the violence. Hundreds of thousands have fled to Zambia, Angola and other neighboring countries as refugees, creating a humanitarian disaster in those countries, and threatening to destabilize the entire region. United Nations and Reuters and Global Security and MONUSCO
Related Articles
The violence in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is one of the worst of any country in the world, but similar violence occurs in many African countries, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC).
The IDMC report measures the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in each country. These are people who are forced to flee from their homes either because of violence or because of a natural disaster (usually meaning a drought). In this article, we're focusing on people fleeing violence.
The countries in Africa with the most IDPs are Sudan (3.3m), DRC (2.2m), Nigeria (2.0m), South Sudan (1.9m), and Somalia (1.1m). People who are forced to flee violence often experience further violence again in their place of displacement, including murder and rape. People in displacement camps are vulnerable to human trafficking and slavery.
DRC is the worst affected in the last year. In just January through June of this year, there were 997,000 more displacements in DRC, more than the 922,000 that were displaced in the entire year 2016.
Africa is disproportionately affected by conflict. Africa has 16% of the world's population, but over 33% of the world's conflicts. As the graph at the beginning of this article shows, the number of armed conflicts in Africa has been growing fairly steadily since the end of World War II.
However, the IDMC found an apparent contradiction that they have to explain: Although the number of armed conflicts has been rising, the intensity of these conflicts has been falling, and yet the number of IDPs has been rising. They explain this as follows:
"Why then the consistently high rates of conflict displacement seen in our figures? Other forms of violence are on the rise, in some instances involving higher death tolls. ACLED, which monitors armed conflict and political violence, indicates that riots, protests and bombings are increasing in Africa.Importantly, violence against civilians is on the rise. Forty-two per cent of incidents of political violence targeted civilians in 2014, and 45 per cent in 2016."
According to the report, there were 2.7 million people newly displaced people in Africa between January and June of this year, the equivalent of 15,000 people forced from their homes every day. 75% of of new displacement is attributed to conflict and violence. Internal displacement monitoring center (IDMC) and Institute for Security Studies and EyeWitnessNews (South Africa)
The DRC alone is being described as a "mega-crisis" because of the huge numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs), but it's far from unique, as illustrated by the numbers above. Outside of Africa, Syria also has millions of IDPs.
I've written articles about numerous countries that are currently in generational Awakening or Unraveling eras, with leaders that refuse to step down and are using violence and atrocities against civilians to stay in power. These include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hun Sen in Cambodia.
There's a reason why so many African countries are in generational Awakening eras. The Awakening era is one generation past the end of the preceding generational crisis war, and for most countries of the world, the last crisis war was World War II, so the generational Awakening era occurred in the 1960s and 1970s.
However, African countries have been on a different timeline. Most African countries were largely unaffected by World War II, but had generational crisis wars in the 1960s-80s. These wars were usually wars of "liberation" from colonial powers.
The graph at the beginning of this article shows that the number of armed conflicts in Africa has been growing fairly steadily since the end of World War II. In many cases, the colonial powers drafted men from their African countries to fight in WW II, but the countries themselves were not always involved. After WW II ended, the number of demands for liberation from colonial powers led to liberation wars, which explains the sharp increase in armed conflicts in the next three decades.
However, the armed conflicts that lead to independence for these African nations did not resolve the ethnic and tribal differences occurring within the nations. In country after country, a leader from one tribe or another took control of the country, became rich through corruption, often channeling international aid into their own bank accounts or into weapons to be used against political enemies, and continued using violence for decades to stay in power.
So the "apparent contradiction" that the IDMC found as described earlier in this article, is explained by the fact that the tribal, ethnic and anti-colonial wars have been ending, but the violence has been replaced by leaders staying in power by using genocide, murders, rapes, torture, jailings, and massacres.
One thing that's pretty clear is that there's no end in sight for this kind of violence. To the contrary, new post-war generations of young men and women are coming of age, and these leaders who are doing everything they to stay in power are going to have to commit more murders, rapes, torture and jailings to keep these new generations under control.
This leads to a grim choice for the United Nations and its peacekeeping forces. These peacekeeping forces have been failing to accomplish anything of value, and they will fail even more in the future. These forces are hugely expensive, and really accomplish little or nothing. On the other hand, nobody wants to leave Africa in distress without doing everything possible to help, even if the help is futile. This is one of those problems that have no solution. BBC
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Dec-17 World View -- United Nations stunned as peacekeepers are massacred in DR Congo thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Greece furious at Germany over intense airport inspections
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan began a two-day trip to Greece on Thursday. This was the first visit by a Turkish head of state in 65 years, since 1952, and only the second visit by Erdogan to any EU nation in 18 months. Relations between Turkey and Greece have been tense for years (for millennia, actually), at a time when relations between Turkey and all of the European Union have been sharply deteriorating, and so the nominal purpose of this trip was to improve bilateral relations between Greece and Turkey.
Possibly the most contentious issue is an agreement about the island of Cyprus. Half the island has a Greek government, and that part is a member nation of the European Union. The other half has a Turkish government, considered illegal by the European Union. Repeated attempts to unify the island have failed.
So on Thursday, Erdogan referred to peace talks that failed earlier this year, and said:
"Who left the table? Southern Cyprus did.... We want the issue to reach a fair and lasting solution but that is not southern Cyprus' concern."
This was at a joint press conference with Greece's president Alexis Tsipras. Tsipras responded:
"My dear friend, Mr. President, we must not forget that this issue remains unresolved because 43 years ago there was an illegal invasion and occupation of the northern part of Cyprus."
Tsipras also complained about frequent violations of Greece's airspace in the Aegean sea:
"The increasing violations of Greek airspace in the Aegean and particularly the simulated dogfights in the Aegean pose a threat to our relations, and particularly a threat to our pilots."
It's possible that Erdogan's warplane violations in the Aegean Sea are related to his frequently stated demand that the Lausanne Treaty be renegotiated, to give part of the Aegean Sea to Turkey. As we reported last year, Erdogan claims that Turkey was cheated when it was forced to sign the Lausanne Treaty on July 24, 1923, saying bitterly, "At Lausanne, we gave away the (Greek) islands that you could shout across to." Proponents of the status quo point out that the Lausanne Treaty was an important part of guaranteeing peace between Greece and Turkey following World War I.
Erdogan claimed that Greece is violating the treaty by refusing to respect the Muslim minority living in Greece, particularly the Turkish enclave in Thrace in northeastern Greece near the border with Turkey. On Friday, the second day of his 2-day visit to Greece, Erdogan has scheduled a visit to Thrace to see for himself. Erdogan says that he visited western Thrace in 2005, where there are 150,000 Turkish descendants, and he wants to visit again. Erdogan is demanding increased rights for the Muslims of Thrace, complaining that Greece doesn't even allow them to select their own religious leaders.
A final demand by Erdogan was to extradite eight Turkish soldiers and officers who fled from Turkey to Greece on the night of the botched coup in Turkey. The eight soldiers, included two commanders, four captains and two sergeants, had escaped to Greece on a Sikorsky helicopter and landed in Alexandroupolis. The soldiers denied involvement in the coup, but said that they would not receive a fair trial in Turkey. Greece says that they cannot be extradited unless the courts rule it based on evidence that has so far not been presented that they were involved in the coup.
Overshadowing the visit was the situation involving the EU-Turkey migrant deal that was signed in 2015. The agreement has been very successful, in that it's reduced the flow of migrants from Syria and Iraq into the EU from a torrent into a trickle. However, the number of migrants has been increasing recently, and the EU has failed to fulfill its obligations under the deal: Visa-free travel for all Turkish citizens visiting Europe's Schengen zone, and an acceleration of negotiations for Turkey to join the EU. Kathimerini and Deutsche Welle and Kathimerini
Related Articles
Airline passengers traveling from Greece to Germany are supposed to enjoy visa-free travel, since both countries are in Europe's Schengen Zone, hailed as the greatest achievement of European integration. The Schengen agreement effectively abolished border controls between most European Union member states in 1985, allowing the area to function as a passport-free single country for all its travelers
For the past three weeks, planes carrying passengers from Greece to Germany are no longer allowed to debark into the airline terminal. Instead, they're herded into a bus and taken to a secluded corner of the airport, where they have to stand out in the cold for up to an hour to be receive scrutinizing passport checks and controls. Belgium is adopting a similar policy.
The reason given is security, and fears of a terror attack during the holiday season. Germany's Interior Ministry says that authorities have counted more than 1,000 illegal entries from Greece since the start of the year.
Greeks are furious that, once again, they're being used as scapegoats and held to blame for a refugee problem that they didn't create and for which they're receiving little help from the rest of the EU. According to one traveler from Greece:
"Germany's security concerns may be valid. And the Greek government, also, may be responsible for its abysmal handling of the refugee crisis. But that does not justify unilateral action. It is as if the US state of Massachusetts orders all incoming US travelers from California to go through passport controls at foreign arrivals terminals because California is teeming with migrants."
This incident only adds to the general fury that Greeks continue to feel towards the Germans, after Germany demanded that draconian fiscal measures be imposed on Greece during the bailout negotiations several years ago. Many Greeks are also still furious at Germany for the Nazi invasion. Kathimerini (21-Nov) and Deutsche Welle (28-Nov)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Dec-17 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan visits Greece with a list of contentious demands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Time Magazine makes international #MeToo movement 'person of the year'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The #MeToo movement has gone international. In the US Congress and businesses, people are being forced out of office by anonymous sources and kangaroo courts. In Europe, Sweden's King Carl XVI Gustaf has warned men to start listening to women, after tens of thousands of Swedish women have shared their stories under the #MeToo hashtag. Female MEPs are talking about their experiences in the European Parliament, and are openly displaying "#MeToo" placards at their desks.
The #MeToo hashtag has also spread to China. In China, the state-run media was forced to retract an article that said that sexual harassment was a Western problem, but "Chinese men are taught to be protective of their women. Behaving inappropriately toward women, including harassing them sexually, contradicts every Chinese traditional value and custom." The article was taken down after a furious reaction by women on social media. Women in factory positions are frequently abused, and Chinese police don't investigate domestic violence complaints, claiming that it's a family matter.
Time Magazine has now made it official. What Time used to call "Man of the Year" is now the "Person of the Year," and the winner this year is "The Silence Breakers," the female movie stars who broke their silence and openly accused powerful men who harassed and sometimes abused them.
According to Time, this has been a long time coming:
"This reckoning appears to have sprung up overnight. But it has actually been simmering for years, decades, centuries. Women have had it with bosses and co-workers who not only cross boundaries but don't even seem to know that boundaries exist. They've had it with the fear of retaliation, of being blackballed, of being fired from a job they can't afford to lose. They've had it with the code of going along to get along. They've had it with men who use their power to take what they want from women. These silence breakers have started a revolution of refusal, gathering strength by the day, and in the past two months alone, their collective anger has spurred immediate and shocking results: nearly every day, CEOs have been fired, moguls toppled, icons disgraced. In some cases, criminal charges have been brought."
And there's no end in sight. Any man who said or did something to a woman even decades ago that she finds offensive can now be accused and judged by a kangaroo court to be guilty.
What are the rules? Can a man flirt? Can a man ask a woman he works with out on a date? Can a man tell a woman that she looks good today? Can a man have a sexy picture of his wife on his desk? Can a fireman read Playboy in the firehouse? In the circus atmosphere of today's he-said/she-said world, any interaction between a man and a woman can be turned into an accusation of sexual harassment.
Female BBC news anchor Katty Kay says that a backlash is already developing:
"The next fear is that men will get so nervous that they're going to be accused of harassment that they will simply stop hiring, meeting or socializing with female colleagues. There are reports this is already happening. We will get shut out of the room where important decisions are made because men fear our presence? How ironic would that be?"
As more and more men are forced to face sexual harassment accusations in the current circus atmosphere, it's pretty safe to say that the circus can't last, and that this will pass in a few months.
This will be a big relief to everyone, especially women, who are going to be facing an increasing backlash, the longer that this continues. Time Magazine and Politico (EU) and The Local (Sweden) and BBC and Guardian (London, 17-Oct)
People are talking about the current sexual harassment circus as if this is the first time that anything like this ever happened.
Actually, exactly the same thing happened in the 1990s, and the backlash that women felt in the 1990s tells us a great deal about the backlash that women are going to be facing today.
At the beginning of the decade, feminists attacked Clarence Thomas because he had asked Anita Hill out on a date a decade earlier. At the end of the decades, feminists fought bitterly to protect Bill Clinton from seven or more women who credibly accused Clinton of violent forcible rape while he was governor of Arkansas. The entire decade was a circus.
The decade was a disaster for women. The relations between men and women in the workplace were extremely toxic, as was reported by many commentators.
I spent much of the 1990s decade doing research for a book on gender issues called Fraternizing with the Enemy - A book on gender issues for men and for women who care about men. I researched the whole range of gender issues - divorce, domestic violence, rape, teen motherhood, sexual harassment, child abuse, incest, including detailed discussions of the Clarence Thomas and Bill Clinton issues. The book was based on thousands of interviews and online conversations, as well as extensive research into such things as "feminist legal theory" and "feminist social theory."
The book is available as a free PDF, on my download page, http://generationaldynamics.com/download/.
During my research, I spoke to many men who considered talking to any woman in the workplace to be a career risk. Several men told me stories of making some innocent remark and being charged with harassment.
Earlier this year, it emerged that Vice President Mike Pence had a policy of never having lunch alone with any woman except his wife, or of drinking alcohol unless his wife was by his side. Since Pence is an evangelical Christian, the mainstream media mocked this as some sort of religious rite. Maybe religion was part of it, but many men who were in the workplace in the 1990s feel the same way. Mike Pence's policy is what I've heard many men describe.
This toxic relationship between men and women in the workplace is growing again today. NBC News quotes labor attorney Nestor Barrero as saying that "many people" have already asked him if they should take "the Mike Pence approach." He advises against it, but this and other anecdotal evidence indicates that the 1990s are repeating themselves in that men would rather work with men and not with women, because working with women is too great a career risk.
Sheryl Sandberg, the COO of Facebook, says that sexual harassment is a serious problem, but says "I have already heard the rumblings of a backlash: ‘This is why you shouldn’t hire women." (She adds, hopefully, "Actually, this is why you should.")
I want to quote some excerpts from my book, Chapter 2, "Real Rape" (the title taken from the title of the book "Real Rape" by Democratic activist Susan Estrich). What I described then is what exactly what's happening today, except for a few name changes:
"The country's largest feminist organization, NOW (The National Organization of Women), began the 90s by vocally and defiantly screaming harassment at a black man who allegedly told a woman a few dirty jokes, and ended up the decade by defending, condoning and carrying water for a white man who allegedly and credibly is a serial rapist, a man who gropes, flashes, uses and abuses every woman in his life.If the great, all-powerful male patriarchy had wanted to hatch a plot to cause as much damage and destruction as possible to women and feminists, they could never have done anything so destructive as NOW did to women during the 90s. NOW has damaged men, women, and society so much that it will take years, perhaps decades for the country to recover from it. The only good thing about what happened is that they've totally discredited themselves by carrying water for Clinton, arguably the country's most abusive politician.
Long before the Clinton sex scandals, the policies advocated by NOW and other feminist groups, the relationship between men and women in the marketplace became enormously hostile, and this hostility ended up hurting women.
For example, one man is a friend of mine who runs a professional office with his wife. They had had the practice since the 70s of hiring a married woman college graduate each year to serve as an intern for a year. Many of these women went on to become professionals in their own right. However, following Anita Hill's testimony, this man changed his policy, and decided he would never hire another woman intern. Since that time, he's only hired male interns.
Another example: Another friend of mine ran an office where he normally had about a dozen women social workers working for him. He told me, "I don't dare even tell an employee, 'You look nice today,' because I'm afraid she'll bring sexual harassment charges. The only exception is my secretary -- she's worked for me for ten years, and I can trust her." In other words, this man could not trust the other women working for him.
Almost every man I spoke to had some story. One man told me that he'd seen a condom machine in a men's room, and he mentioned briefly to a woman associate how shocked he was to see it; she brought a sexual harassment complaint. He told me, "There's something wrong with women today. They're crazy."
In fact, I've tended to call these stories "crazy women stories," because every man I asked always seemed to have some story, and always seemed to add to it some words like, "These women are crazy."
One man after another told me they didn't want to have anything to do with women in the workplace. By extrapolating the examples I heard, I would estimate that literally millions of jobs nationwide suddenly became unavailable to women. And women in the workplace were viewed by men as being unstable, unreliable, or "crazy." ...
It's easy enough to blame men about all this, and I'm sure any feminist reading this automatically does so, but this catastrophe was brought about by NOW and other feminist organizations encouraging women to act this way. ...
And did women gain anything from all this turmoil? They didn't, and for a reason that feminist "theory" didn't anticipate. When a sexual harassment complaint roils a workplace, a lot of hostility gets generated, and that hostility appears to break half against the alleged victim and half against the alleged perpetrator.
I've heard from women who brought sexual harassment complaints against someone, and it was always disastrous for the accused man, but it also backfired against the accusing woman. These women were treated with hostility by everyone else, including other women. ...
I saw one occasion like this with my own eyes between two people I knew at work. The man said something dumb to a woman and got her angry. She complained to the HR rep. The HR rep, a woman, called the man into her office and accused him of harassment. He got pissed off, stormed out of her office, and quit, and got another job immediately elsewhere, at higher pay. The company lost a valuable worker, and everyone, especially the women, especially the man's (female) manager, were pissed off as hell at this woman who brought the sexual harassment complaint and caused so much trouble."
There's a great deal more information in my book, and I recommend that anyone interested in the subject of gender issues should download the PDF and read it.
This is now an international issue, and it really is a circus. Many women feel that "something must be done," but they can't figure out what that something is.
Katty Kay, the female BBC news anchor, says:
"A backlash now against women would be the worst thing that can happen, it would shove this topic back under the carpet for years. So let's tread carefully, act soberly and use this moment, with the willing support of our male colleagues, to make our workplaces safer and happier."
She's right. The backlash that developed in the 1990s did shove the topic under the carpet for almost 20 years.
Why should any man take sexual harassment seriously, when feminist organizations and the Democratic establishment protected Bill Clinton from multiple credible forcible rape accusations for years? Susan Estrich was Clinton's principal supporter after the multiple forcible rape charges. Estrich herself had been raped, and been an active part of the 1990s sexual harassment circus, but then sold herself out as a woman and a rape victim to defend Clinton. Why should any man take sexual harassment seriously after that? Even worse, feminists make wild, irresponsible claims that 25% of all female college students are raped, when the actual figure is about 0.1%. And no one doubts that feminists and the Democratic establishment are protecting other harassers and rapists today.
The bottom line is this: Men will never take sexual harassment seriously until women do. NBC News and Washington Post (30-March) and Fast Company and Book: Fraternizing with the Enemy (PDF)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Dec-17 World View -- International #MeToo movement generates backlash against women from 'Mike Pence rule' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Syria regime walks out of UN-sponsored Geneva peace talks
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Whenever I write about the Syrian war "peace process," I always use the word "farcical" to describe the peace talks. And this always turns out to be correct, as the "peace process" always falls apart with days or weeks, for reasons that were completely obvious at the time that the peace talks were held.
The core problem is always the same. As I've described in story after story, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is a delusional psychopath, a Shia/Alawite who will never let the war end until he's exterminated all his Sunni enemies, which will never completely happen. As long as Bashar al-Assad is in power, Syria's civil war, including the war crimes, the airstrikes and barrel bombs targeting women and children in schools, hospitals and marketplaces, and the use of Sarin gas and industrial strength torture on civilians, will never end.
And al-Assad will always have the full cooperation of Russia and Iran in committing these war crimes, making Russia and Iran war criminals as well.
There have been two main series of peace conferences. The UN-sponsored peace conferences have been held in Geneva, led by United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura. In most of these meetings, al-Assad representatives attended, but opposition representatives did not.
When representatives from both sides attended, the two sides didn't actually talk to each other. Instead, de Mistura led negotiations with the cute name "proximity talks." What this means is that the representatives from the two sides sit in separate rooms, and then de Mistura walks back and forth between the two rooms, carrying messages back forth. It must be hilarious to watch.
This week's Geneva peace talks were attended by both sides, but the opposition representatives are taking the position that there must a transition that removes al-Assad from power. The al-Assad representatives could not tolerate even being in just the same building with opposition representations saying that al-Assad must go, even in the context of proximity talks where the two sides would never have to see or hear each other, and so the Syrian delegation walked out of the talks on Saturday.
So, the Geneva talks are supposed to continue until December 15. Let's watch and see if silver-tongued Staffan de Mistura can convince Bashar al-Assad to send his delegation back to the peace conference, before the peace conference ends in total farce. Reuters and The National (UAE) and Foreign Affairs (29-Nov)
Related Articles
The second series of "peace talks" have been taking place in Astana, Kazakhstan, and were attended by Russia, Iran and Turkey. These were pretty farcical from day one, because they weren't attended by the actual belligerents in the war, the Bashar al-Assad regime and the representatives of the opposition. So any agreements reached in Astana were signed by Russia, Iran and Turkey, but not by the people on the ground actually fighting.
The main agreement to come out of the Astana peace talks was the implementation of "de-escalation zones" or "de-confliction zones" in Syria. In four regions of western Syria, there would be an enforced ceasefire, and the ceasefire would be guaranteed by Russia, Iran and Turkey, providing whatever troops are necessary for the functioning of the checkpoints and observation posts as well as the administration of the security zones.
Well, needless to say, Bashar al-Assad never agreed to these de-escalation zones, but it has always been his objective to completely exterminate all his Sunni opposition enemies, so there was never any hope that the de-escalation zones would succeed. However, he did go along with them temporarily, because they freed up his army to attack the opposition in other areas.
Last year, the al-Assad regime, backed by Russia, conducted an extremely bloody war of extermination against the civilian residents of Aleppo, with numerous war crimes. Al-Assad claimed that the battle of Aleppo was "history in the making":
"[The liberation of Aleppo was] history in the making and worthy of more than the word congratulations.History is being written in these moments. Every Syrian citizen is taking part in the writing. It started not today, but years ago when the crisis and the war on Syria began.
I think that after the liberation of Aleppo we’ll talk about the situation as ... before the liberation of Aleppo and after the liberation of Aleppo."
This was totally delusional on the part of al-Assad, which is not surprising since he's a delusional psychopath. History was made in Aleppo by the sheer number of war crimes committed by Syria and Russia. If the so-called "liberation of Aleppo" is remembered, it will be for the total destruction of the city.
So the de-escalation zone agreement was supposed to end this kind of thing, but the destruction of Aleppo is now being repeated in Eastern Ghouta, which is one of the ceasefire de-escalation zones.
Eastern Ghouta was attacked by the al-Assad regime in 2013 with Sarin gas. There has been almost continuous bombing since then. In the last three weeks, the regime, backed up by Russia, has substantially stepped up the attacks, with massive airstrikes on markets and densely populated residential areas, killing dozens or hundreds of people.
Eastern Ghouta is part of one of the de-escalation zones that were agreed to at the Astana talks. Opposition officials say that the zones were meant as a charade to divert attention from the heavy daily bombing of civilian areas. That seems to be the case.
According to the United Nations, there are about 400,000 civilians who are under siege in Eastern Ghouta. Aleppo only had a population of about 250,000, and so Syria and Russia have a lot more women and children to kill, so that will be going on for several months.
After that, al-Assad can make another delusional speech about how clever he is to have killed hundreds of thousands of innocent people. At any rate, between the farcical Geneva peace talks and the farcical Astana peace talks, there is no end in sight for Syria's civil war, as long as Bashar al-Assad is in power. Reuters and Le Point (Paris) and NRTTV (Kurdistan)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Dec-17 World View -- Syria and Russia repeat Aleppo war crimes in massive destruction of Eastern Ghouta thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
US officials plan for military strike on North Korea
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A web site reader posted this message on Sunday:
"Every day astounds me more than the last. I suppose that's one of the distinguishing features of "times like these." In Generational Crisis times, time seems to be compressed. One 'panic' or another is just hours away, it seems, and great swathes of 'public opinion' change course mid-air like a disturbed mega-flock of starlings."
On Monday, the time compression seemed to increase, with three crises all seeming to accelerate at the same time on the same day: Yemen, North Korea, and Brexit.
It was just two days ago that I wrote a lengthy article about a big change in the Yemen war, which has become a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Previously, the Iran-backed Houthis were allied with Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, fighting against the militias supporting Saudi Arabia.
Saleh has always been a master politician at deftly switching sides, forming alliances of convenience, and then betraying his former allies. Last week, he performed this act again, breaking his alliance with the Houthis, and forming an alliance with the Saudis. But this turned out to be his last act.
The Houthis were furious at Saleh's betrayal and "treason," and apparently took revenge on him on Monday, when he was ambushed and killed in his convoy at a checkpoint in Yemen's capital city Sanaa.
Analysts are saying that this is a victory for the Houthis and Iran, but it also weakens the Houthis in the sense that it will further split the tribes previously allied with the Houthis. In particular, in some scenarios, many of Saleh's militias that were fighting alongside the Houthis in the past may attack the Houthis for revenge, and firmly side with the Saudis. Another scenario is that the pro-Saleh tribes will splinter and become ineffective.
The effects of Saleh's death will depend on what the Saudis and Iranians do next. Saleh's son in Saudi Arabia is being proposed as his replacement. The only thing that's certain is that Saleh's death guarantees more chaos.
The death of Saleh is expected to complicate Tuesday's meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The GCC is an alliance of six Arab countries -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- on the Arabian Gulf. The GCC is already splintered because of Saudi Arabia's air, land and sea blockade on another GCC member, Qatar. Kuwait has been acting as a mediator, and some analysts hoped that Tuesday's meeting would be used to negotiate an end to the blockade of Qatar. However, Tuesday's agenda is likely to be hijacked by the Yemen issue after the death of Saleh. Some analysts are saying that the GCC is near complete collapse. National Yemen and BBC and Al Jazeera
Related Articles:
Over the weekend, the full realization of what the U.S. is facing from North Korea became more clear and more stark. It's clear that for three decades, US administrations have simply appeased the North Koreans, falling time after time for North Korean promises that they had no intention of keeping, just as Hitler was planning for full-scale war as he promised "peace in our time."
If we continue on the same path as the last three decades, then:
Many people believe that China and Russia would welcome these developments by the North Koreans, since the missiles would be pointed at America, not at China or Russia.
The administration seems to be signaling every day that we're one day closer to war because of the North Korean threat.
Over the weekend, H.R. McMaster, President Trump’s national security adviser, said:
"The greatest immediate threat to the United States and to the world is the threat posed by the rogue regime in North Korea and his continued efforts to develop a long range nuclear capability. ...I think [the threat] is increasing every day. It means we’re in a race. We’re in a race to be able to solve this problem.
There are ways to address this problem short of armed conflict, but it is a race because he’s getting closer and closer and there’s not much time left."
Sen. Lindsey Graham on CBS News said that the American military should start preparing for war:
"We're getting close to a military conflict because North Korea's marching toward marrying up the technology of an I.C.B.M. with a nuclear weapon on top that cannot only get to America but deliver the weapon. We're running out of time. McMaster said that yesterday. I'm going to urge the Pentagon not to send any more dependents to South Korea.South Korea should be an unaccompanied tour. It's crazy to send spouses and children to South Korea, given the provocation of North Korea. So I want them to stop sending dependents. And I think it's now time to start moving American dependents out of South Korea. ...
[Trump has] got the best national security team of anybody I've seen since I've been in Washington. The president, himself, early on, made the right decision: 'I'm not going to allow North Korea to hit America with a nuclear weapon. We're not going to live under that threat. If I have to go to war, and I don't want to, to stop it, I will.'
Everybody before President Trump screwed it up, including Republicans. Now we need to get it right. And I think he's got the right approach. He's got the right team. I hope China will help us. We're running out of time."
What would a military strike on North Korea look like? On Fox Business Network on Monday, retired army lieutenant colonel Ralph Peters described it as follow (my transcription):
"This is not a question of a few surgical strikes. If we wanted to destroy, DESTROY their capability to build a fleet of ICBMs, with mated nuclear warheads, it would require an intensive campaign, primarily, not exclusively from the air. It would run a minimum of several weeks, possibly months - you can't predict these things once you start pulling triggers.And ultimately the question is the regime in North Korea: can, should it survive?
So it's not just shooting a couple of launchers, knocking out some missiles. You have to go after deep underground bunkers, research facilities. You have to go after command and control, air defense, intelligence, early warning. And so this is real war. If we had to address the North Korea problem militarily, it's a war. ...
Is it better to put American cities at risk of nuclear catastrophe or at least nuclear blackmail, or to act while we can?"
The logic of the imminent North Korean threat and these statements from American officials is that a war is likely within 6-18 months.
South Korea and the US are holding joint military drills, the largest ever, involving 12,000 US troops. There are also 230 US fighter jets, including the brand new F-35 Lightning, two dozen stealth jets, and over 200 fighters and bombers. North Korea has called it a "preparation for war," and threatened unspecified action. Fox News and CBS News
Related Articles
 |
Until midday Monday, the European media were reporting that a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU was imminent. The reason that a breakthrough was predicted was because UK prime minister Theresa May had repeatedly capitulated to the demands of the EU on the three major "Phase I" issues.
The first Phase I issue was the "divorce bill," the amount that the UK will have to pay the EU to leave, an amount as high as €60 billion. UK politician Nigel Farage, who spearheaded the Brexit movement, famously once said that "the EU can whistle for that money." Over a period of months, May had to agree to pay something, then had to agree to pay €20 billion, and finally last week agreed to pay about €50 billion. The EU considered this to be enough of a commitment for the time being.
The second issue was the treatment of EU citizens working in the UK. EU officials said that May had made significant concessions, and that would be enough for the time being. However, the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in rejecting UK laws is still an open question, as it has been all along.
The third issue is the problem of the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, separating it from the Republic of Ireland, which is part of the EU. When the UK leaves the EU, there would have be border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland, a concept that almost everyone rejects, because any border controls are thought likely to result in a renewal of "The Troubles," the decades of violence between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (Catholic, Republican) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders (Protestant, Unionist).
Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland has stated unequivocally that he would not approve any Brexit agreement that reinstated border controls. The EU has stated unequivocally that the EU would not agree to any proposal that Varadkar rejected, since Ireland would be part of the EU after Brexit, and Northern Ireland and the UK would not.
So apparently Theresa May's staff came up with some language late last week that seemed to satisfy everyone. The details are unknown, but it would provide some kind of special regulatory status to Northern Ireland that would allow the borders to remain open. It was that level of agreement that led the media to expect a breakthrough on Monday, and Theresa May went off the Brussels to sign the deal.
While in Brussels, Theresa May placed a phone call to the Arlene Foster, the leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), and Foster vetoed the plan. She said:
"Northern Ireland must leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the UK. We will not accept any form of regulatory divergence which separates Northern Ireland economically or politically from the rest of the United Kingdom."
The DUP is a very small but critical part of Theresa May's governing coalition, but if they turn against her, then there will be new elections in Britain. This is somewhat comical, since it's an outcome nobody wants. May and her Tory party would probably lose the election to the Labor Party, and the ultra-leftist Jeremy Corbyn would become prime minister. Corbyn supports the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in Ireland, which is the DUP's traditional enemy. Would Corbyn like to be prime minister and take over Brexit negotiations with the EU? My guess is that he enjoys seeing May take all the flak in trying to solve the intractable Ireland problem.
On top of the veto by the DUP, the leaders of Scotland and Wales, and the mayor of London all tweeted that if Northern Ireland gets special treatment, then they should get special treatment too. Their tweets are shown in the above graphic.
EU and UK leaders hope that these problems can all be resolved by the December 14 summit meeting in Brussels. If so, then negotiations will move onto trade issues, and those issues will be far more difficult to resolve than the three Phase I issues. It's very hard to get past the feeling that Brexit is a complete disaster for the UK, and probably for the EU as well. Irish Times and BBC
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Dec-17 World View -- Three crises accelerate: Yemen's Saleh killed, Brexit collapses and North Korea war looms thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Cameroon and Paul Biya behave typically following a generational crisis civil war
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Separatists in the Southern Cameroons, the Anglophone (English-speaking) regions of Cameroon, seeking independence from the Francophone (French-speaking) government, killed four policemen and two soldiers in two attacks in the last week. The security forces had been sent into the Anglophone regions to try to suppress further unrest, but separatists claim that they have set up checkpoints on roads as symbols of Francophone occupation. The activists are demanding for the Southern Cameroons to secede, and create an independent nation called Ambazonia.
Ben Kuah, the chairman of the military wing of the secessionist group Ambazonian Governing Council (AGC) said:
"One of the main objectives is to clear the checkpoints that they have put on our roads. They are the symbols of occupation."
Cameroon's president Paul Biya promised retaliation for the attacks:
"I think things are now perfectly clear to everyone. Cameroon is the victim of repeated attacks.Faced with these attacks of aggression, I assure the Cameroonian people that all measures are being taken to end these criminals’ ability to do harm."
Cameroon's Minister of Defense Beti Assomo said:
"Following the president of the Republic, the Head of the armed forces’ declaration after the repeated attacks and killings in the country, that are claimed by secessionist movements, we are expected to arrive at concrete measures for the immediate application of the strategy of the heads in the army. And the process is going to continue till this situation that we are experiencing is eradicated."
The violence started in 2016, but at the start is one almost entirely one-sided violence, with the Francophone security forces violently attacking peaceful Anglophone protesters.
In 2016, the peaceful protests began with claims by Anglophone lawyers that the legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with many laws passed without even being translated into English. Anglophone teachers joined in, protesting that all courses in the schools had to be taught in French, and that any use of English was forbidden. The Francophone police responded by severely beating several protesters, and shooting two of them dead.
The Francophone government has done some really stupid things in the past year, apparently in the belief that they can end the peaceful protests by violently attacking the protesters. The security forces repeatedly used tear gas, gunfire, beatings and jailings against the protesters. The government shut down the internet in the Southern Cameroons for several months, in the moronic belief that they would stop protesting if they didn't have the internet available to do their jobs and earn a livelihood.
Government idiocy reached a height in August, when the government deployed 400 additional police to the Anglophone regions to force schoolchildren to go to school. There were still protests going on over the schools being forced to teach all subjects in French, but instead of simply allowing some courses like geography and math to be taught in English, they sent the police out to drag little children to school.
The violence took a particularly dangerous turn on September 22, when activist forces began using small bombs to target local security forces. On October 1, separatists staged a massive march, and declared the independence of Ambazonia. In the increasingly violent Francophone government crackdown that followed, hundreds of people were arrested, and helicopter gunships were used to fire on innocent civilians and kill them. At least 5,000 people have fled across the border to neighboring Nigeria to escape the violence.
On Sunday, state radio said, "Paul Biya has declared war on these terrorists who seek secession," and that a large-scale military operation was being prepared, indicating that a full-scale violent conflict is about to begin. AFP and Cameroon Concord and VOA
Related Articles
As regular readers are aware, we've discovered some patterns that countries predictably follow during the generational Awakening and Unraveling eras, one or two generation past the end of the preceding generational Crisis war.
In America, the Awakening era was in the 1960s, following World War II, with massive student protests in colleges and racial protests on the streets of Los Angeles, Chicago, and many other cities. The government did not use gunfire and helicopter gunships to stop the violence, and the only jailings were for specific property crimes. The government continued in an orderly constitutional manner, with presidents Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon.
Cameroon's last generational crisis war was "UPC Revolt," 1956-1960, which was a bloody civil war by communists attacking the Anglophone "British Cameroons" colony and the Francophone "French Cameroun" colony. The outcome was a single independent country, Cameroon, which merged the British and French colonies together.
Paul Biya was born in 1933, and became president in 1982. He consolidated his power by orchestrating a fake coup, giving him an opportunity to eliminate all his rivals, and making him, in effect, a dictator.
During the generational Awakening and Unraveling eras that followed independence, Cameroon had the same student protests and other protests that every country has, one or two generations after the end of the preceding crisis war. But there's a sharp distinction when the preceding crisis war was an internal civil war. In this case, the government refuses to cede power to the opposition, fearing a renewal of the civil war, and uses murder, rape, torture and jailings arbitrarily against peaceful protesters in the opposition.
I've described this in numerous countries where the Awakening era follows a generational crisis civil war, including Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hun Sen in Cambodia.
Paul Biya, who has been president in Cameroon for 34 years, is simply following this same pattern, the same sociopathic violent behavior against a peaceful opposition to remain in power at all costs. If you'd like a simple psychology explanation for why this happens, I will give you mine: When the leader of a country participated in an internal crisis civil war, and during the war was responsible for ordering the rape, torture and slaughter of other people who are essentially his neighbors, then he's traumatized for life, and develops the sociopathy that we've described. But whatever the reason, we've now seen this in one country after another, and the phenomenon is being firmly supported by the research. Quartz and Crisis Group (19-Oct)
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Dec-17 World View -- Cameroon's English-speaking provinces on the verge of full-scale violence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The Houthi-Saleh 'alliance of convenience' crumbles into violence
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Last month, Saudi Arabia imposed a sea, land and air blockade on Yemen, taking a country which was already in a major humanitarian crisis into an enormous humanitarian disaster. The major effect of the blockade has been to prevent humanitarian aid, including food, medicines and fuel into the country. Of the 25 million population, 20 million rely on humanitarian assistance, and 7-8 million are now facing full-scale famine and starvation as a result of the blockade on humanitarian aid. Furthermore, without fuel, the water pumps in many cities can no longer operate, forcing people to drink filthy water, adding to Yemen's huge cholera epidemic, hitting close to one million people.
Since 2015, the tribal civil war in Yemen has been largely a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, especially the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The war dangerously escalated a month ago when the Houthis launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran, that reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800 km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with the blockade, giving as a reason the need to prevent the Houthis from importing more Iranian weapons systems.
Beyond blocking Iranian weapons imports, it wasn't clear whether the Saudis had any further objectives, and indeed some NGO leaders were accusing the Saudis of using "denial of aid" as a "weapon of war."
If being a weapon of war was part of the Saudi plan, then it appears to have been successful. There's been a major split among the militias in the Houthi coalition.
There have been four days of increasingly violent clashes between the the two major militias, one led by Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, and the other led by former Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is leading some local militias who had previously been allied with al-Houthi.
After the clashes began, tens of thousands of people filled the streets in Yemen demanding an end to the fighting. After four days of clashes, it was apparently too much for Saleh, who practically begged the Saudis for a ceasefire:
"I call on our brothers in neighboring countries ... to stop their aggression and lift the blockade. They need to lift the blockade and open the airports, and allow food and medicine to enter the country. We will open a new page with them for dialog. What is happening in Yemen is enough."
A spokesman for the Houthis said that "Saleh's speech is a coup against our alliance and partnership... and exposed the deception of those who claim to stand against aggression." In addition, al-Houthi responded on television, calling Saleh a traitor and describing his appeal to Saudi Arabia as "treason to the country and a stab in the back." BBC and Washington Post and Reuters and Bloomberg and AP
South Yemen and North Yemen were two separate countries until they unified in 1990 under the leadership of Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh ruled until 2011, when he was ousted as an outcome of the "Arab Spring" that affected countries throughout the region. Saleh was forced to turn the office of president over to his vice president, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi.
In effect, Saleh refused to give up power, and he formed an "alliance of convenience" with the Houthis. Saleh and the Houthis have never really gotten along. During the two decades that Saleh was president, he fought six different wars against the Houthis. on September 21, 2014, Saleh and the Houthis captured Sanaa from Hadi's forces. Hadi was forced to flee Sanaa, and has been living in exile in Saudi Arabia for two years. From the point of view of the international community, Hadi is still president of Yemen.
On Saturday, Saleh's foreign minister was interviewed on the BBC, and he said that the alliance with the Houthis had to end because Houthis were forming a "state within a state," similar to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a military state within a state within Iran.
In 2005, Saleh and the Houthis had created an alliance with the nominal objective of forming a unity government that both groups could lead equally. But in the last year, the Houthis have been gaining power in Sanaa, and Saleh has been losing power. Furthermore, there has been rising popular discontent with the Houthis, and that discontent has increased in the last month with the Saudi blockade. Some reports indicate that Saleh has been talking to the Saudis through back channels for a while, so it's even possible that this whole scenario, starting with the blockade, was planned in advance, and triggered by the Houthis' launch of the ballistic missile at Riyadh.
Since Saleh's call for a ceasefire, the Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa have almost stopped. According to reports, Saleh has promised the Saudis that if they agree to the ceasefire and to lift the blockade, then he will undertake to defeat the Houthis in Sanaa, and drive them back into their northeast stronghold, as he had to do several times when he was president. After that, Saleh says that he and the Saudis can talk, and bring Yemen back to be "normal" again, with him in some sort of leadership position.
That's actually the optimistic scenario. A more likely scenario is there's another front in the war, and that the clashes between Saleh and the Houthis will become just another war within the Yemen war, the war will continue in a different form. AFP and Gulf News (Dubai) and CNN and Stratfor
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Dec-17 World View -- Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Humanitarian crises continue to grow year after year
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The United Nations is asking the world community for an increase in donations for humanitarian aid, requesting $22.5 billion for 2018, above the $22 billion originally requested for 2017. More than $10 billion is needed to address the humanitarian crises in Syria and Yemen alone.
According to the "Global Humanitarian Overview 2018" report published on Friday:
"Many humanitarian crises have become so protracted that they seem permanent. Nineteen of the 21 humanitarian response plans presented in this overview are for humanitarian crises that have been running for five years or more. Three have had humanitarian plans and appeals each year for at least 18 years (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan and Somalia).The steep rise in funding requirements over the years is mainly driven by a set of large-scale protracted crises with humanitarian funding requirements over a billion dollars per year (primarily the Syria crisis, Yemen and South Sudan).
Food insecurity is also often a consequence of protracted conflict. In late 2017, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNet) highlighted 12 countries in which at least a half-million people will need emergency food assistance (Yemen, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, DR Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Central African Republic and Niger). Of these, five are rated in the ‘emergency’ phase of food insecurity, one step short of the worst phase of ‘famine’. Four (Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria) are still at risk of famine conditions."
In the request for 2017 (the current year), the $22 billion was requested to\help 92.8 million people in need. Over the course of the year 2017, additional crises increased the need for $24 billion, to help 105.1 million people.
However, there's little chance and the UN will get the funding that it's requesting. The number of humanitarian crises around the world has been increasing sharply. This requires a lot more humanitarian aid, but it also creates a lot more "compassion fatigue" among potential donors, who (correctly) see the demands for humanitarian aid increasing constantly, but then draw the conclusion that they are no longer willing to respond with money.
The graph above shows the funding requested (black line) and funding received (blue line). As the graph shows, the amount of funding requested has been increasing much faster than the amount of funding received.
So in 2017, $22 billion was initially requested, rising to $24 billion during the year, but the actual funding received was just $12.6 billion, or just 52% of the amount needed, according to the UN. Relief Web and Global Humanitarian Overview 2018 (PDF)
As you can see from the above graph, the amount of funding requested went up during the financial crisis until 2010, then fell and leveled off, and then began to surge in 2012. This was the time following the "Arab Spring," when the Mideast and other places in the world began to seriously destabilize. In the Mideast, the war in Libya began, and the genocide in Syria by the Bashar al-Assad also began. More crises began in the years that followed. In Central Asia, the Burma genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya Muslims began. In North America, the Haiti earthquake was an enormous disaster. In Africa, wars in South Sudan, Mali, and Central African Republic started, followed by the war in Yemen.
On top of that, there were continuing humanitarian crises in some countries. In three countries, they had lasted for at least 18 years: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and Somalia.
I remember reading an article in 2004 claiming that the number of wars in the world was at the lowest in history. That was the end of the generational Unraveling era, a time during the 1990s when the world was run by the Silent generation of people who had grown up in the 1930s. They had lived through World War II, and had learned the dangers of extreme nationalism, xenophobia, large refugee flows, and unmet humanitarian crises. Since the world leaders were well aware of these dangers, they made sure that they wouldn't spiral out of control.
Since 2003-4, most of the world has been in a generational Crisis era, with the survivors of WW II disappearing. And now, about 14 years into a Crisis era, we see all the things that led to WW II occurring again, leading up to a new world war. The things that the World War II survivors devoted their lives to keep from happening again are now happening again and spiraling out of control.
In yesterday's World View article on the rise of slavery and slave auctions in Libya, I described how huge migration flows in Africa, the Mideast, Central Asia, and even in Beijing China are destabilizing major regions of the world, depleting resources and triggering xenophobia and violence. At the same time, "compassion fatigue" means that less aid is available for desperate people.
All of these factors -- slave auctions, growing refugee flows, growing humanitarian crises -- are factors that have occurred in the 1930s and prior to other major wars in history, and they are only going to continue growing, and lead to a new world war.
In 2018, expect more countries to become unstable, more refugee flows, more slave auctions, and more humanitarian crises, and expect more intolerance and political bickering by politicians overwhelmed by the crises and looking for easy solutions that don't exist. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's what always happens in a generational Crisis era. AFP and Al Jazeera and Reuters
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Dec-17 World View -- UN asks for 2018 increase in humanitarian aid despite compassion fatigue thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
China drives thousands of Beijing migrants out into the winter cold
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The surreptitiously obtained CNN video that we reported two weeks ago that portrayed slave auctions in Libya have continued to have political repercussions in Europe and Africa, with political leaders expressing how shocked, shocked they are that these auctions are still going on after they had supposedly ended in the 1800s with the abolition of slavery in many countries around the world.
CNN obtained the video using concealed cameras at a slave auction just outside Tripoli, the capital city of Libya. In one case, the auctioneer says, "Does anybody need a digger? This is a digger, a big strong man, he'll dig. What am I bid, what am I bid?" The man is auctioned off for $400-800.
The video about the slave trade and slave auctions triggered large sometimes violent protests in front of Libya's embassy in Paris.
As it happens, an African Union - European Union (AU-EU) summit was already scheduled to take place in Côte d'Ivoire on November 29-30. The summit brought together more than 80 leaders from countries on both continents to discuss such subjects as investments in Africa, trade, and provided humanitarian aid, with a particular emphasis on investing in youth.
However, the intended agenda was hijacked by the slave trade issue. It's estimated that 400,000 to 700,000 migrants are trapped in Libya, having travelled there in the hope of reaching Europe. Instead, they've been put into refugee camps, in compliance with an agreement that Italy made with many Libyan warlords and governments to prevent them from traveling to Europe. But the refugee camps have been filled to overflowing, and the excess tens or hundreds of thousands of migrants and refugees are being auctioned off as slaves.
Nigeria's president Muhammadu Buhari said, "Some Nigerians were sold like goats for a few dollars in Libya."
One migrant from Cameroon, Chancelier Deuda, said:
"Libya is a country at war, despite the semblance of peace. A black person is seen as merchandise, he is sold like chicken. Migrants on their way to Libya are kidnapped. They are kidnapped when they are walking and sold for as little as 300 Libyan Dinars (216 USD)."
Another Cameroonian migrant, Emile Monkam, said:
"Do not take the Libyan route, it’s not a good idea and you definitely won’t like what you will find. You will meet people who, I don’t even know how to qualify them, but those Arabs – and I am speaking from experience since I have in different parts of Maghreb region, but those Arabs are not people who should live on earth."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said:
"It’s very important that we simply support Africans to put a stop to illegal migration, so people don’t have to either suffer in horrible camps in Libya or are even being traded."
Ghana's president Nana Akufo-Addo said:
"The current slave auctions of Africans in Libya are not only gross and scandalous abuses of human rights, but are also mockeries of the alleged solidarity of African nations grouped in the African Union (AU), of which Libya is a member.I continue to be puzzled as to the vehemence with which so-called social democrats oppose or attempt to undermine measures designed to address poverty. Their demagoguery and opportunism will always be exposed."
The outrage expressed by these African leaders is pretty phony, since the slave auctions had been reported for a long time. The CNN video, however, triggered the large anti-slavery protests, especially in Paris.
The outrage also raises the usual questions that are asked at times like this: Why is Africa blaming Europe for slavery in Africa? Why can't Africa solve this problem on its own? Why is more Western aid always demanded, when decades of Western aid hasn't helped in the past? European Council and RFI and Daily Post (Nigeria) and NY Daily News and Africa News
After expressing universal outrage about the slave trade and slave auctions, the national leaders proceeded to offer a "solution" which has no chance of doing anything to solve the problem.
The objective of the AU-EU summit agreement is that all 400,000-700,000 migrants that are trapped in Libya are to be sent back to their countries of origin.
So, for example, 3,800 migrants in just one of the dozens of camps in Tripoli alone will be sent back to their home countries immediately -- assuming that their home countries will take them. Some 250 migrants from Cameroon have already been returned home.
As for the other hundreds of thousands of migrants trapped in Libya, a task force will be formed, with members from the EU, the AU, and the United Nations. The task force will aim to:
It's obvious that this task force will do little more than hold meetings and express outrage. With 400,000-700,000 migrants trapped in Libya, the slave trade and slave auctions will continue as before.
We're seeing massive refugee flows all around the world, with hundreds of thousands or millions of refugees in each of Libya, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), South Sudan, Syria, Burma (Myanmar) -- just to name the places that I've recently written articles about. These huge refugee flows are destabilizing entire regions, depleting resources and triggering xenophobia and violence. This is one more factor that's leading to World War III, just as similar massive refugee flows in the 1930s led to World War II. AP and Bloomberg and RFI
Related Articles
 |
With huge migrant flows destabilizing many parts of the world, it's interesting that a related story is going on in China's capital, Beijing.
After a shantytown fire on November 18 killed 19 people, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using the fire as an opportunity to evict thousands of Beijing migrants from their homes, and to demolish their homes.
Many of these people have lived in these homes for 10-20 years. They migrated to Beijing years ago, and they were laborers who built Beijing into the huge metropolis that it is today.
The evictions are being called "cruel" even among the usually obedient and compliant Chinese, because they're given only a few hours or a couple of days to collect their belongings and move somewhere else -- and for most there's really nowhere else to go to escape the winter cold.
"Once I built a tower to the sun, bricks and mortar and lime. Once I built a tower, now it's done. Brother can you spare a dime?" (Rudy Vallee song from 1931.) Shanghaiist and South China Morning Post and Global Times (Beijing) and YouTube
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Dec-17 World View -- European-African summit calls for end to slavery auctions in Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Dec-2017)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Web Log Summary - 2018
Web Log Summary - 2017
Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004
Web Log - December, 2018
Web Log - November, 2018
Web Log - October, 2018
Web Log - September, 2018
Web Log - August, 2018
Web Log - July, 2018
Web Log - June, 2018
Web Log - May, 2018
Web Log - April, 2018
Web Log - March, 2018
Web Log - February, 2018
Web Log - January, 2018
Web Log - December, 2017
Web Log - November, 2017
Web Log - October, 2017
Web Log - September, 2017
Web Log - August, 2017
Web Log - July, 2017
Web Log - June, 2017
Web Log - May, 2017
Web Log - April, 2017
Web Log - March, 2017
Web Log - February, 2017
Web Log - January, 2017
Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004