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War continues in full force, with Syria and Turkey killing 'terrorists'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Russia's president Vladimir Putin wanted to be the world-renowned diplomat that brought peace to Syria. So last year he blew off the UN sponsored peace talks led by Staffan de Mistura, and he joined with Iran and Turkey to form his own "peace talks" process, held in Astana, Kazakhstan. And they came up with a peace plan.
Of course, the peace plan was rejected by the parties actually fighting in Syria -- the Syrian regime led by the psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad, and "moderate" anti-Assad opposition in Syria, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). All of those four groups rejected the peace plan, so it was ridiculous for Putin or anyone else to believe that the peace plan would work.
And it didn't. They came up with four "de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones." The fighting slowed down a little in these four zones for a little while, but today the whole agreement is in shambles, as the fighting is in full force. It is a total failure by Vladimir Putin.
There was a meeting of Putin's peace plan group in Sochi on Tuesday that Putin was calling the "Syrian National Dialogue Congress."
The meeting was supposed to take two days, but it was called off after one day, when Syrian opposition representatives heckled Putin's right-hand man, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and then walked out.
There was an additional drama at the Sochi airport. Some opposition members arrived at the airport, but refused to go to the conference hall because they saw pictures of Syrian flags there. They decided that the fix was in.
Opposition members point out that Bashar al-Assad's army is still using barrel bombs and chlorine gas on civilians, is targeting hospitals and schools, is preventing food and medicine from reaching civilians, has ignored ceasefires, and has broken every promise to stop doing these things. So opposition members know that Russia and al-Assad are just going to screw them again, so why bother with this so-called "peace conference"?
Putin announced in December that the Syrian war was over, and that Russia's troops will be returned to Russia. Less than two months later, it's clear that Putin's announcement was garbage. Reuters and CNN and Tass (Moscow)
Russia's "peace process" has almost completely eclipsed the UN-sponsored "peace process," lead by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura.
I've written about any number of Syria peace plans over the years. Kofi Annan, the virulently anti-American former Secretary-General of the United Nations from Ghana, was the first UN envoy on Syria. Annan formulated a farcical six-point 'peace plan' which said absolutely nothing, but which al-Assad used as a cover to continue exterminating innocent Sunni women and children with impunity.
After Kofi Annan was repeatedly humiliated by Bashar al-Assad, the UN appointed a new Syria peace envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, to replace Kofi Annan. Brahimi wasn't as much of an idiot as Annan was, but he still resigned in disgust in May 2014, after it became clear that al-Assad really had no desire to do anything but exterminate Sunni civilians. Now, the current UN envoy is Staffan de Mistura, who goes around all the time saying, "This will not be tolerated," but who accomplishes nothing except, again, to provide cover for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities.
So Vladimir Putin took over the peace process business. The UN processes held out a fig leaf of being impartial, but Putin was clearly and unequivocally in favor of Bashar al-Assad, and committed to supporting his genocide and war crimes, while claiming to be promoting peace.
So to complete the farcical circle, de Mistura attended the Russian conference in Sochi under the condition that Russia promised that the United Nations would be responsible for drafting a constitution and the mediation process. Putin apparently agreed, and now the mantle of failure will pass from Russia back to the United Nations. Guardian and Russia Today
If you want to kill someone in Syria, it's perfectly OK as long you call him or her a "terrorist."
So Turkey is committed to killing all the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militias in Syria, calling the "terrorists." Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is very critical of the US for arming and supporting the YPG, whom the US army found to be essential in fighting and defeating ISIS in Raqqa.
Turkey was supposed to have defeated the YPG in Afrin by now, but the battle is taking longer than they expected. Assuming that they ever defeat the YPG in Afrin, the plan is to proceed further east to Manbij, where they will apparently meet American forces who are defending the YPG.
Meanwhile, the regime of the Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russian bombers, is killing his own "terrorists," namely innocent Sunni women and children in two "de-confliction" or "ceasefire zones," Eastern Ghouta and Idlib. Al-Assad continues to commit war crimes, in cooperation with Hezbollah, Iran and Russia.
Ironically, al-Assad is being helped by Erdogan because Turkey used to be a protector of the civilians in Idlib, but is now distracted by the fight against the YPG in Afrin.
So, while Erdogan is killing the terrorists in Afrin, al-Assad is killing the terrorists in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib.
There is a fantasy, apparently widespread, that one way or another the Syria war will end at some point soon, and then Syria will return to "normal," just as it was before al-Assad started the war by trying to exterminate peaceful protesters in 2011. And in fact, Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so the war should have (and would have) fizzled out within a year or two.
But now you have multiple countries -- Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, the US, Israel and others -- and you have multiple factions within Syria -- YPG, HTS, ISIS -- all wanting a piece of Iraq, or at least wanting to make sure that some other faction doesn't get a piece. Each faction believes that the war will end soon, but each faction expects a different outcome.
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
The mess and chaos in Syria is just a few steps away from a broader war. AP and TRT World (Ankara, 18-Jan) and Middle East Monitor (24-Jan) and Middle East Eye (23-Jan)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Jan-18 World View -- Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as Lavrov gets heckled thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Jan-2018)
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Brief generational history of South Korea since World War II
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Mainstream journalists, analysts and economists are generally incapable of grasping even the simplest generational concepts, so on the extremely rare occasion when a major publication publishes an actual generational analysis it's worth noting.
An article in the NY Times by Choe Sang-Hunjan titled "Olympic Dreams of a United Korea? Many in South Say, ‘No, Thanks’" gives a generational analysis of South Korea as the Winter Olympics games approach, and the changing attitudes to reunification of different South Korean generations.
The article quotes surveys that show a big gap in attitudes between younger and older South Koreans:
The article quotes a former South Korean foreign minister: "I am taken aback. Young people seem to think of North Korea as strangers who barge into their party bringing with them nothing but empty spoons."
The current left-wing South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has long supported unification, driven by his personal desire to see his birthplace in the North.
According to the article:
"Key members of Mr. Moon’s presidential office and governing party are progressives in their 50s, who went to college in the 1980s. Then, campuses were rife with anti-American activism, partly driven by resentment over the division of the Korean Peninsula after World War II. Students defied the authorities by sending a “unification envoy” to the World Festival of Youth and Students, alternative games that North Korea held in Pyongyang in 1989 to counter the previous year’s Summer Olympics in Seoul.Progressives in that era believed in a peaceful process of reunification, built on the expansion of economic and social exchanges. Today, many of that generation see the North’s nuclear weapons program as a desperate attempt to protect itself from the United States and the South, with which it is still technically at war."
These paragraphs need a bit of interpretation. As I'll explain in detail below, what the article calls 1980s "progressives" are known as the "386 Generation" of the 1980s -- affluent, highly pro-Leninist-Marxist and highly anti-American, since they had no memory of their parents' extreme poverty and destitution, nor of how an American military intervention saved South Korea from the North in 1950.
However it is true, as the article points out, that the 386er generation strongly believed that the communist government of North Korea was superior to Western democracies, and that the South and the North could be unified peacefully if only the South could adopt that same kind of government. Events since then, especially "the fiasco of the 386 generation" (described below), and North Korea's unstoppable nuclear missile development, have forced the 386ers to abandon those extreme radical views, and look for opportunities for peaceful negotiations. The 2018 Winter Olympics games are the best opportunity so far. NY Times (or Open version)
On Monday, North Korea abruptly canceled a joint cultural event to be held on February 4 in the North Korean territory of Mount Kumgang. The plan had been for skiers from both sides to train in North Korea's Masikryong Ski Resort.
The North blamed the South Korean media for encouraging “insulting” public sentiment regarding the North. There were no specifics given, but South Korea has a free press, and there has been a lot of criticism of North Korea. There have also been individual protests, including burning a picture of North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un, which would be a capital offense if done in North Korea. However, it's not known whether those were the problem.
It's suspected that the North is angry about media coverage of North Korean plans to stage a large military parade in Pyongyang on February 8, just before the start of the Olympics. Some media reports say that some 50,000 North Korean soldiers will march in the parade, which will feature the latest in North Korean weapons, including ballistic missiles. These reports may be the reason why they canceled the cultural event.
The South Korea's Unification Ministry issued a statement:
"It is very regrettable that an event agreed by the South and the North will not be held due to North Korea's unilateral notification (decision). What has been agreed must be implemented under the spirit of mutual respect and understanding as the South and the North have only taken a hard-earned first step toward improving the South-North relationship."
In another development, South Korea's Defense Minister Song Young-moo said:
"The North Korean regime will probably be removed from the map if it uses developed nuclear weapons against South Korea or the United States.It's an anachronistic idea that North Korea will use nuclear weapons for the unification (of the two Koreas)."
It's certain that there will continue to be some hostile media coverage, and it's certain that there will be anti-North protesters before and during the games. This media coverage will be interpreted by the North as threatening their new strategy of using the Olympics to drive a wedge between South Korea and the US. Whether they become so infuriated that they start canceling other events, or even their entire participation in the games, remains to be seen. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters and UPI and The Hankyoreh (Seoul) and Yonhap News (Seoul)
In an article that I wrote in 2007 ( "South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal"), I included a brief generational history of South Korea. The following is an update.
Korea is one of the oldest nations on earth, with some 4000 years of history. Here we can only give a brief summary of its extremely tumultuous history in the 1900s:
That 2007 article was written in response to conciliatory policy changes by the George Bush administration, resulting in euphoria on the part of South Koreans. In that article, I quoted a BBC correspondent, Charles Scanlon in Seoul, who described the euphoria as unrealistic:
"We are seeing something approaching euphoria, from at least among some members of the South Korean government, in reaction to this agreement that was signed in Beijing.The Unification Minister who's responsible for relations with the North said this could be a turning point in the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean peninsula.
And certainly the South Koreans do feel to some extent vindicated by what has been in effect a major change in U.S. policy toward North Korea.
They've been urging a more conciliatory approach from the very beginning, and they're certainly very relieved that the Americans now do seem serious about getting a negotiated settlement with the North Koreans, and they've softened some of their pressure tactics.
The president, Roh Moo-hyun, said he's expecting a very easy implementation of this accord.
I think there we are seeing really wishful thinking on the President's part, because after all any agreement with the North Koreans is not going to come easy."
I don't know whether the current president Moon Jae-in personally feels euphoria about the new Winter Olympics détente, but as we've described, the young generation of South Koreans feel little but anger. The controversy has sent South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s overall approval rating below 60% for the first time since he took office in May last year, dropping more than 6 percentage points in one week. Korea Times (5-Feb-2008) and Meng News (3-Jun-2014)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jan-18 World View -- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Jan-2018)
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Brief generational history of South Yemen
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Dozens of people were killed or wounded on Sunday in the port city of Aden on the southern coast of Yemen, as the result of clashes between the forces of the official government of Yemen, backed by Saudi Arabia, versus the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist faction backed by United Arab Emirates (UAE), and claiming Aden as the capital city of Southern Yemen.
A week ago, Yemen was in the midst of a proxy war between two different governments backed by two different foreign countries. But now, at this moment, Yemen's proxy war now has three different three different governments, backed by three different foreign countries:
In addition, there's one more major non-government force in Yemen, and that's Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In recent years, AQAP's leadership has turned from harshly ideological Sharia policies that alienated the tribal populace into pragmatists that are making allies of tribal leaders, by providing security, protection, and a measure of stability.
Since Saudi Arabia and UAE are supposed to be allies, this development is being called a "war within a war." There have been reports that officials in both Saudi Arabia and UAE are ordering their militaries to stop shooting in Aden, and to resolve the issues. If the shooting does not stop, then it will be AQAP that gains in the south, and the Houthis that will gain in the north. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and The National (UAE) and Jamestown
Because of its location, the port city of Aden has been strategically important for centuries. In 1839, Britain captured the port of Aden and southern Yemen from the Ottomans, and was made part of British India. Britain ruled Aden and southern Yemen, consisting of 24 tribal states (sultanates, emirates and sheikdoms), until the 1960s.
Yemen's last generational crisis war was the Yemen Civil war, which began in 1962, and was largely a proxy war involving forces from Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Britain, the United States, and (pre-revolutionary) Iran. The Yemen Civil War ended in 1968, and in the diplomacy that followed, in February 1970 Yemen was split into the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR, North Yemen) allied with Saudi Arabia, and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY, South Yemen), a Marxist communist country allied with Russia. South Yemen was the Arab world's only communist state so far.
In 1990, at the end of the generational Recovery era, the two countries were unified into a single country, Yemen, in an agreement designed to eliminate all the tensions between the two countries. In many ways, this was a marriage of convenience, since relations remained tense, but it put Ali Abdullah Saleh into a clear position of leadership. There was an attempt at secession by southern secessionists in 1994, but it was put down quickly, leading to the entrenchment of Saleh's northern-based regime. Saleh governed Yemen most of the time since then, until he was killed in December, 2017.
Saleh was the country's president until 2011, when he was ousted as an outcome of the "Arab Spring" that affected countries throughout the region. Saleh was forced to turn the office of president over to his vice president, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi. Saleh then formed a "marriage of convenience" with the Iran-back Shia Zaydi Houthis in northwest Yemen. On September 21, 2014, Saleh and the Houthis captured Sanaa from Hadi's forces. Hadi was forced to flee Sanaa, and has been living in exile in Saudi Arabia for two years. From the point of view of the international community, Hadi is still president of Yemen.
Since 2015, the war in Yemen was largely a proxy war between Iran versus a Saudi Arabia - United Arab Emirates (UAE) coalition. In November 2017, Saudi Arabia imposed a land, air and sea blockade on Yemen, giving as a reason to prevent the Houthis from importing more of Iran's weapons systems.
This blockade was a humanitarian disaster for Yemen. Yemen is already one of the poorest countries in the world, and because of the proxy war, mass starvation and disease have been spreading across the country. Aid from NGOs was only partially relieving the situation, but with the Saudi blockade, even that aid was cut off.
The blockade was apparently too much for Saleh. Early in December he announced that he was separating from the Houthis, and offered to mediate a ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Three days later, the Houthis had him ambushed and killed.
The death of Saleh fragmented tribal opposition to the Houthis in North Yemen, giving the Houthis more substantial control over the north.
Now the UAE is backing the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), indicating that the coalition fighting the Houthis is also fragmenting. In addition to making it even harder for NGOs to provide aid, to help prevent massive starvation and cholera, this "war within a war" will help AQAP gain further control through alliances with other tribes.
Writing anything about Yemen, you can't help but feel sorry for this poor country. Because of the country's strategic location, everyone wants a piece of it, and they're willing to fight proxy wars to get a piece. It's only the people suffering endless misery and poverty, as helpless pawns subject to constant bombings, starvation and cholera. It reminds one of the old African proverb: When elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers. History.com and Global Security and Harvard - History of Yemen Civil War - 1962-68 (PDF)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jan-18 World View -- Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Jan-2018)
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Trump doubles down on war on Taliban in Afghanistan
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Exactly one week after a spectacular 16 hour siege by the Taliban of the Intercontinental Hotel in Afghanistan's capital city Kabul, killing dozens, a new suicide bomber struck on Saturday.
The new attack was a massive bombing by a suicide attacker in an ambulance killed at least 95 people and wounded 158, almost all innocent civilians. The ambulance got through security checkpoints by claiming that he was carrying a person to a hospital. When one checkpoint officer got suspicious, the driver blew up the ambulance, which was full of explosives.
The Taliban have not yet claimed responsibility for this attack because of the the bad PR they get when they kill innocent civilians. It's suspected that the ambulance driver was trying to reach the Interior Ministry building in order to kill government officials.
Both last week's attack and this one occurred in areas that are supposed to be under heavy security. Government officials are coming under heavy public criticism for being unable to prevent these attacks. Tolo News (Kabul) and Khaama Press (Kabul)
President Donald Trump issued a statement condemning Saturday's terror attack:
"I condemn the despicable car bombing attack in Kabul today that has left scores of innocent civilians dead and hundreds injured. This murderous attack renews our resolve and that of our Afghan partners.The Taliban's cruelty will not prevail. The United States is committed to a secure Afghanistan that is free from terrorists who would target Americans, our allies, and anyone who does not share their wicked ideology. Now, all countries should take decisive action against the Taliban and the terrorist infrastructure that supports them."
The idea of defeating the Taliban is fantasy, for reasons I've reported many times in the past.
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.
This rising generation of young terrorist Pashtuns cannot be defeated by any conventional or unconventional army. They're capable of forming cells, living off the land, and conducting terror attacks at any time, targeting the government and the ethnic groups in the Northern Alliance. What Trump calls "the Taliban's cruelty" is actually their revenge for the atrocities that were committed against their parents over 20 years ago. This is not going to end because of some piece of paper drawn up by government ministers in Kabul, and anyone who things so is living in a world of total fantasy.
In August of last year, Trump gave an Afghanistan strategy speech announcing that some 4,000 more American troops would be sent to Afghanistan, in order to achieve "victory."
As I described at the time, Trump promised victory by redefining "victory":
"Our troops will fight to win. We will fight to win. From now on, victory will have a clear definition: attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al Qaeda, preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, and stopping mass terror attacks against America before they emerge."
When you think about it, this definition of "victory" has already been almost completely achieved. Going down the list, we attack our enemies, ISIS has been defeated in Syria and Iraq, al-Qaeda has been at least partially crushed, the Taliban are not taking over Afghanistan, and there haven't been any mass terror attacks against America.
But this definition of "victory" doesn't say anything about bringing peace to Afghanistan, nor does it promise an end to terror suicide bomber attacks in Kabul. As far as Trump's definition of victory in Afghanistan is concerned, it's pretty much already been achieved, despite Saturday's bombing.
As I've written in the past, Trump appears to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. Fox News and India Today and CBS News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jan-18 World View -- New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Jan-2018)
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War becomes more likely as Mali enters a generational Crisis era
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A spate of jihadist terror attacks in central Mali on Thursday left nearly forty people dead. At least 26 people were killed in a landmine explosion that was targeting the UN's peacekeeping mission in Mali. The peacekeeping mission is named MINUSMA, or the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission. There were two further attacks, also on Thursday in central Mali, killing seven jihadists and two soldiers.
The irony is that, whether by accident or on purpose, the jihadist attacks occurred just after the UN Security Council (UNSC) issued a statement criticizing the government and several ethnic groups in Mali for not implementing a 2015 peace agreement. The Security Council threatened additional sanctions against officials in Mali if the terms of the peace deal haven't been implemented by the end of March.
Once again, watching a UNSC "peace process" in action, one has the feeling that one is watching a farce. The 2015 peace agreement was signed by the government and by several ethnic and rebel groups who are mostly cooperating with the government. But Mali is a huge country and the agreement does not cover all of it, and of course the jihadists that conducted Thursday's attacks were not party to the agreement at all. So it's hard to see how the agreement even makes any sense.
Apparently the thought behind the agreement is that government and these rebel groups would work together to defeat the jihadists, and so bring peace to the land. If they really wanted to do that, then they wouldn't need a peace agreement, and anyway, Mali is too large a country to be governable.
The UN Security Council statement is actually quite interesting, since it lists all the things that the parties have to do to bring peace to Mali. Here are some excerpts:
"The members of the Security Council expressed a shared sense of impatience regarding the persistent delays in the full implementation of key provisions of the Agreement. They underscored the pressing need to deliver tangible and visible peace dividends to the population in the north and other parts of Mali. ...The members of the Security Council stressed in this context the importance of taking immediate and concrete action to fully and expeditiously deliver on key provisions of the Agreement, in particular through: progress in the decentralization process, including through the holding of appropriate consultations between the parties aimed at reviewing and strengthening consensus on existing legislation and through the adoption of legislation establishing a regional territorial police force; the operationalization of the interim administrations in the north of Mali, including through the allocation of the necessary human, technical and financial resources to perform their missions; progress in the cantonment and disarmament, demobilization and reintegration processes, including through the definition of adequate eligibility criteria and reintegration quotas and through the submission of finalized lists of candidates, as well as progress in the security sector reform, with a view to the progressive redeployment of the reconstituted armed and security forces in Mali; the establishment of the Operational Coordination Mechanism in Kidal and Timbuktu; and ensuring full and equal participation of women."
That's an interesting list of tasks. It's a shame that none of them has much to do with ending jihadist attacks or bringing peace.
And notice the last task "and ensuring full and equal participation of women." This shows what a farce this is. Instead of worrying about stopping jihadist attacks, they're worried that the security forces will be half men and half women. You'd think that this was a parody dreamed up by people who want to mock and ridicule the United Nations, but no, this is the real thing. Radio France Internationale (RFI) and AP and United Nations
The downfall of Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 created a domino effect that led to a rebellion in northern Mali by the Tuaregs, an ethnic groups spread across northern Africa's Sahel region between Libya and Mali. The domino effect continued when the chaos of the Tuareg rebellion led to an al-Qaeda linked jihadist incursion.
The jihadists were briefly chased out by France's Operation Serval, but they returned, and led to other rebel and jihadist groups to enter the region. There were numerous international efforts, mainly led by France, to eject the rebel and jihadist groups. The most ambitious was Operation Barkhane, an offensive deployed in 2014 in five countries, which sought to fight jihadists in five countries -- Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. The United Nations peacekeeping effort, the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission (MINUSMA), was established on April 25, 2013.
It was just a week ago that we reported that Britain agreed to send three RAF CH-47 Chinook transport heavy lift helicopters to provide logistical support to France's Operation Barkhane, along with 50-60 support staff.
MINUSMA has been pretty much a failure, and has come under increasing criticism. According to a United Nations analysis released earlier this week, MINUSMA is being reassessed.
Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, says the following:
"Five years after the Mission’s establishment and two years and a half after the signature of the peace agreement, we believe the time has come to reassess the assumptions that underpin MINUSMA’s presence, review its key mandated tasks against achievements on the ground and reexamine the Mission’s layout through a comprehensive strategic review."
Of course, this political gobbledygook really says nothing, but it does express increasing anxiety over what's taking place.
Now, that statement was released before Thursday's attack targeting the MINUSMA peacekeepers themselves. In general, jihadists are increasingly targeting UN peacekeepers, and this is no exception.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this appears to be a textbook case of what happens when a country is about to enter a generational Crisis era.
Mali's last generational crisis war was the Tuareg rebellion that climaxed in 1963.
After a crisis civil war reaches a climax and is settled, the traumatized survivors reach an agreement to make sure that nothing like it ever happens again. But as younger generations grow up after the war, low-level violence begins and increases. As the war survivors die off, this violence becomes more violent and occurs more often, although the war survivors prevent it from tipping into full-scale war.
Based on examination of hundreds of examples in all places and times in history, Generational Dynamics has found that a turning point is reached 58 years after the climax of the preceding crisis war, which is the time when the country enters a new generational Crisis era ("fourth turning"). That seems to be the point in time when the generations of war survivors disappear (retire or die) so completely that they're unable to prevent another war, and so a new crisis war can begin in any of the years that follow.
So 2018 is the 55th year after the end of the 1963 Tuareg Rebellion. History has shown that's a little too early for full-scale war to occur. But as each year passes, there are fewer and fewer war survivors around, and there are more and more kids in the younger generations with a thirst for war.
This is what we're seeing now. The United Nations Security Council made a 2015 peace agreement with representatives of the old geezers in the war survivor generation. The agreement is nice to have, but it's completely irrelevant to the increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic younger generations. So there is zero probability that the 2015 agreement will be implemented, and there is zero probability that MINUSMA or the United Nations will have any success whatsoever in quelling the violence in Mali, which is only going to increase. IRIN News and United Nations and 2015 Mali Peace Agreement and BBC (20-Aug-2017)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jan-18 World View -- Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Jan-2018)
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Migrant workers built modern China, and are now being discarded
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The mayor of China's capital city Beijing has announced that workers would demolish 15 square miles of homes used by low-paid migrant workers. Many migrants have lived in these homes for years or decades, but now the city is declaring the homes to be illegal structures. The migrants will be evicted and left homeless.
Officials are not saying how many migrant workers would be evicted by the demolitions this year. However, in general terms, Beijing would like to reduce the population of Beijing by 15%, and this would fall most heavily on the estimated 3 million migrant workers living in Beijing, or 450,000. (Other reports estimate 8 million migrant workers in Beijing. The larger figure may include suburbs.)
In December of last year, a demolition campaign evicted tens of thousands of migrant workers in just one month alone, so these figures seem to be credible.
Some demolitions had been going on slowly for years, but when a shantytown fire on November 18 killed 19 people, the demolitions and evictions took on a shape that's being described a "vicious" and "cruel."
People were given only few hours' notice before their homes were demolished, and they were forced into the sub-zero December temperatures. The demolitions included small businesses as well as homes, causing many migrants to lose their life savings as well as their source of income. Many migrants had been supporting their families by sending money back to them, but that source of support was cut off overnight.
Chinese intellectuals have petitioned the government to halt the evictions, calling them a violation of human rights. Even some state media have criticized the campaign. According to Yi Fuxian, a China population expert, the government has called migrants a low-end population - basically implying that they're inferior quality human beings. "China didn't just say this. They actually wrote it into government documents. This is absurd," says Yi. Reuters and Shanghaiist (24-Nov) and BBC and NPR (4-Dec-2017)
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Whenever a large number of foreign migrants travel from one region to another, the reactions of the natives generally range from marginalization to open hostility to violence, sometimes ending in deportation. In Beijing, the migrants are not foreigners. They're ordinary Chinese from farms and rural areas who come to the city to improve themselves, or to earn money to send back to their families.
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), there are an estimated 282 million rural migrant workers in China, making up more than one third of the entire working population of 807 million.
Migrants work are almost always marginalized and work in low-paid jobs. They're subject to various kinds of abuse, including forced overtime and non-payment of salaries. The vast majority of rural migrant workers are still employed in low-paid jobs in manufacturing, construction and services. According to NBS figures, the employment by sector is as follows:
The millions of migrants living in Beijing, often for decades, were the laborers who built Beijing into the huge metropolis that it is today. Now their work is done, and they're being left cold, broke and homeless.
Although news stories have focused mainly on Beijing, thanks to the shantytown fire on November 18, we're apparently seeing a major change in Chinese policy that affects all large cities, and possibly medium sized cities as well.
The likely causes of this change of policy are as follows:
This kind of major demographic policy change can only put strain on China's economy, which is already running on a huge debt bubble and a huge real estate bubble.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this split could be significant as the first signs of a new internal rebellion, for which China is overdue. China's history is filled with huge, massive internal rebellions (civil wars), the most recent of which were the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49). The leaders of China's Communist Party (CCP) are well aware of this history, and they're aware that a new internal rebellion is now due, and probably overdue.
China used to publish the number of "mass incidents" occurring in the country. The number of "mass incidents" of unrest recorded by the Chinese government grew from 8,700 in 1993 to about 90,000 in 2010, according to several government-backed studies. The government stopped publishing the figures in 2010, but it's reasonable to believe that the number of mass incidents per year is well into the hundreds of thousands. If even just one of these mass incidents occurred in America or Europe, it would be international news, so the fact that hundreds of such mass incidents occur in China EVERY DAY indicates how socially unstable China is.
So you already have an economy running on a huge debt bubble, with hundreds of thousands of mass incidents per year, and with millions of marginalized migrants scheduled to lose their homes and their jobs, when the country is well into a generational Crisis era. China's next, massive, historic internal rebellion is overdue, and this new policy could end up being one of the triggers. China Labor Bulletin (Hong Kong) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 5-Jan) and The Diplomat (26-Jul-2017)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Jan-2018)
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Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Egypt's presidential election, to be held on March 26-28, is looking more and more like a farce, as opponents of the current president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, are being forced to withdraw, one after the other. It may be that al-Sisi will be the only person left on the ballot.
Sami Anan, a retired army Chief of Staff and a former member of Egypt’s Supreme Council of Armed Forces, was arrested on Tuesday, two days after announcing that he would run for president. He was dragged from his car on Tuesday morning and taken before a military court. He has not been seen since.
Anan was arrested on the charge of announcing that he would run for president. This was a violation of the law, according to authorities, because Anan was affiliated with the armed forces. He's also charged with inciting a rift between the Armed Forces and the Egyptian public. Officials said that he was "summoned for interrogation in front of specialized personnel" for his crimes. Needless to say, Anan's candidacy has been withdrawn.
That's the way this election is going. The presidential election will take place on March 26-28, and al-Sisi, who was himself the former chief of Egypt's armed forces, recently announced that he will run for re-election. But magically, one after another, al-Sisi's potential opponents are being forced to withdraw.
On November 29 of last year, Colonel Ahmed Konsowa announces his plans to run for president, but three days later he was arrested, and convicted of "expressing political opinions as a serving military officer."
Mohammed Anwar al-Sadat is the nephew of the former Egyptian president Anwar al-Sadat, who was assassinated in October, 1981, by extremists who blamed him for signing a peace deal with Israel.
Mohammed Anwar al-Sadat had planned to run for president, but dropped out last week because his campaign staff was being threatened. According to al-Sadat:
"The logic says the regime should allow two or three or four people to run against Sisi to make it look legitimate. But it seems like they don’t even care about how it looks anymore."
A left-wing rights lawyer Khaled Ali said that he would run on November 6 of last year. He was arrested for making "an obscene gesture" outside a Cairo court. Several members of his campaign were arrested on various charges. Anan's arrest on Tuesday was apparently the last straw, as Ali withdrew on Wednesday. According to a supporter,
"[T]here was a widespread feeling that we won’t be given a chance to compete.Anan’s arrest in this rough manner added [to] the impression that this regime wants a referendum, not competitive elections. We wanted a true competition. We didn’t want to take part in a play or provide material for the regime to claim these are genuine elections."
There's still one major contender opposing al-Sisi. Mortada Mansour, an MP more right-wing than al-Sisi, announced his bid on January 13, and has until January 29 to get 25,000 nomination signatures, with a minimum of 1,000 each from 15 of Egypt's 29 provinces. Mansour announced that his first act as president would be to ban access to Facebook.
The Sadat, Ali and Anan campaigns say that they routinely experienced interference or intimidation. Al-Sisi's reelection seems assured, as dissent has been crushed, and all three were forced to withdraw, showing what a farce the election is becoming. Africa News and Guardian (London) and Telegraph (London)
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Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi says that he does not want war with Ethiopia and Sudan, but tensions are rising nonetheless over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Ethiopia is constructing on the Blue Nile river.
In a televised broadcast last week, al-Sisi said:
"We are not prepared to go to war against our brethren or anyone else for that matter. I am saying this as a clear message to our brothers in Sudan and Ethiopia.Egypt neither conspires nor meddles in anyone's internal affairs. We are determined to have good relations [with Sudan and Ethiopia]. Our region has seen enough the past few years."
Nonetheless, one does not declare that he doesn't want to go to war unless he's actually thinking about going to war.
Ethiopia's $5 billion GERD project is soon to be completed, and will be the largest hydroelectric dam project in Africa. Ethiopia says that the GERD will provide power to millions of people in desperate need of electric power, and it sees GERD as a means over overcoming poverty.
However, it will also reduce the flow of water downstream to Egypt. Egypt depends on the Nile river to supply most of Egypt's drinking war, to irrigate the Nile Delta, and to generate half of the country's electricity through the operation of Egypt's Aswan High Dam.
The GERD dispute is becoming a part of the larger regional dispute related to the blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt.
Turkey, which backs Qatar, has a relationship with Sudan and Somalia, while Ethiopia and Sudan have a strategic alliance. Egypt's and Eritrea's leaders met recently to discuss mutual interests.
It seems unlikely that Egypt and Ethiopia will go to war, but the chances of war could increase as the GERD project nears completion. VOA and Al Jazeera and Egypt Independent
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jan-18 World View -- Egypt's presidential election becomes a farce as opposition candidates are forced out thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Jan-2018)
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In policy shift, US sides with Indonesia in South China Sea over Natuna Sea
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Multiple dams and hydropower projects being built in China on the Lancang Jiang River, which becomes the Mekong River when it leaves China, are having a significant effect on the livelihoods and living conditions of millions of people along the Mekong River in downstream countries. The Mekong originates on China's Tibetan plateau and flows over 4,000 km through southern China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.
China has already built six dams along the river, and 11 more are under construction, with 28 more dams planned in the future. These large dams upset the ecosystem and threaten the livelihoods for an estimated 60 million farmers and fishermen living in the lower Mekong basin, where it nurtures one of the world’s most fertile areas for agriculture and fishing. Thailand and Vietnam are among the world’s largest producers of food commodities like rice. Not only do China's dams affect the water available for irrigation, they disrupt the migration of fish and block the flow of silt downstream that sustains riverine environments.
However, this goes beyond ecology. These dams give China control over the Mekong River, which means that China cause use them as leverage to control much of the economy of Southeast Asia.
The dispute over the Mekong River is similar to the dispute over the South China Sea. In the South China Sea, China is using its massive military power to threaten its neighbors, to annex regions belonging to other nations, and to build military bases that were declared illegal by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea.
So now a similar dynamic is occurring along the Mekong River. China has been building these dams and hydroelectric projects without concern for the five downstream nations. Furthermore, China controls water flow according to its own needs, even if it means starving or flooding downstream inhabitants. China's attitude towards its neighbors is not surprising. After all, China displaced millions of its own people to build the Three Gorges Dam, so China's leaders really couldn't care less about people in other countries.
China's dams have been blamed for several droughts along the Mekong delta in recent years. China claims that those droughts were all caused by natural weather changes, but the perception remains that China is causing the droughts. Furthermore, China's dam building has negatively affected fishery stocks in the river. Once again, China claims it's not responsible, but when fishermen are unable to fish, they are going to blame China.
China's plans don't stop there. China is using its control of the water as leverage to force downstream countries to allow it to clear small islands and land features along the entire length of the river, calling this "navigation channel improvement." This will permit commercial and military vessels weighing up to 500 metric tons to travel along the river from China to the South China Sea.
In 1995, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam formed the Mekong River Commission (MRC) as a forum for managing changes to the river. China refused to join the MRC, to avoid being bound by its requirement that developments require consultations with the other members. Instead, China in 2015 formed a new organization of the four MRC nations plus Myanmar, the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC), which it controls. South China Morning Post and Foreign Policy and Jamestown and Cambodia Daily (17-Jan-2017)
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As we reported in September, Indonesia announced that it would rename the part of the South China Sea within its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as the "North Natuna Sea," causing China to throw a temper tantrum. ( "10-Sep-17 World View -- China demands that Indonesia end plans to rename its own territorial waters")
The US has so far stayed completely out of this particular dispute, but on Tuesday US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, in a meeting in Jakarta with Indonesia's Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu, said the United States would help Indonesia play a central role in the region, and would help it to maintain maritime security in the "North Natuna Sea." This use of the phrase "North Natuna Sea" is being considered a US endorsement of Indonesia's position.
It should be noted that the waters under discussion here are part of Indonesia's EEZ, but are far, far, far away from China. Most of China's claims have been labeled as invalid by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, but this particular claim by China is clearly completely delusional, as can be seen on any map.
The Trump administration is becoming increasingly confrontational with China's illegal claims in the South China Sea. There are regular FONOPs (Freedom of navigation operations) in the South China Sea, where a US warship travels through international waters illegal claimed by China, causing China to throw more temper tantrums. The endorsement of Indonesia's claim to the "North Natuna Sea" is one more step on that path. UPI and South China Morning Post
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jan-18 World View -- China's Mekong River dams criticized for affecting other countries' livelihoods thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Jan-2018)
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Massive protests in Thessaloniki Greece threaten Tsipras government
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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One of the most emotional issues in Greece and the Balkans is taking center stage over negotiations to change the name of the official Republic of Macedonia to one that is acceptable to Greece. The Kingdom of Macedon is an ancient name, dating back centuries BC, and is the birthplace, in 356 BC, of Alexander the Great.
The Republic of Macedonia declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, but Greece objected to its use of that name, claiming that having that name would give the country a claim to Greece's own province of Macedonia. The country was admitted to the United Nations in 1993 under the name the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). It has also been admitted to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the name FYROM. The European Union and Nato also recognize only the name FYROM. However many countries, including Russia and the United States, also recognize the name Republic of Macedonia, or just Macedonia.
Greece has repeatedly used its veto power to prevent the country Macedonia from joining either the EU or Nato under any name that contains the word "Macedonia." As this situation has been going on for 25 years, there is now a great deal of pressure on the two countries to come up with a compromise.
The Greek government of prime minister Alexis Tsipras has indicated that it is willing to allow "Macedonia" to appear in the name, provided that it's modified or qualified in some way. There are five proposals on the table:
The last proposal references the capital city Skopje. The name Vardar refers to a river that rises in West Macedonia and then south into Greece, where it is called the Axios River.
Tsipras will be meeting his counterpart, FYROM prime minister Zoran Zaev, on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss town of Davos, and both men indicate that they'd like to resolve the issue once and for all, if that's possible. Meta (Macedonia) and B92 (Belgrade) and RFERL and AP (18-Jan)
More than 100,000 Greeks rallied on Sunday in Thessaloniki (Salonica), the capital city of Greece's administrative region of Macedonia. They were protesting any name change to the country Macedonia that included the name "Macedonia." In particular, they objected to all five of the proposed compromise names listed above.
A poll shows that over 68% of the Greek people oppose agreeing to any use of "Macedonia" in the new name. Politicians from the opposition party New Democracy are siding with the protesters. The Archbishop of Athens Ieronymos initially agreed with the protesters, but after a meeting with Tsipras said that the country now needs "unity" and "national solidarity" with whatever agreement is reached in Davos.
In April of last year, I wrote an article on Macedonia, and I included a brief history of Alexander the Great, referring to him as "the most famous leader in Macedonia's history." I was astounded when this description resulted in an extremely vitriolic and long-running comment stream, with comments coming from all sides -- especially the Macedonians, the Greeks, the Albanians and the Bulgarians.
In summary, Greek commenters said the following:
Macedonian comments said the following:
These comments became extremely acrimonious and went on for a long time. At one point I asked the participants whether there would be blood on the floor if they were all in the same room together. I didn't get an answer. All this indicates to me that the Balkans region, which has been the site of repeated crisis wars throughout history between the Christian civilization and the Muslim civilization, may well provide the start of the next major European war.
Into that context, we now have this emerging issue of the name change for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to something else. We'll have to see whether there's anything else that everyone can agree to. Kathimerini (Athens) and B92 (Belgrade) and Greek Reporter and Meta (Macedonia)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jan-18 World View -- More than 100,000 Greeks hold mass protest over 'Macedonia' name change thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Jan-2018)
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Sunday's attacks throw new doubts into claims of 'victory' in Afghanistan
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The claims by the Afghanistan government and the US-led coalition forces that the Taliban is finally under control were completely undermined this weekend by three separate terrorist attacks by the Taliban.
The most spectacular of the attacks was a 16 hour siege of the Intercontinental Hotel in the capital city Kabul. Attackers dressed in army uniforms and armed with automatic weapons stormed the hotel on Saturday evening. They sprayed the areas with bullets, and forcibly entered some rooms and killed the people inside.
Social media showed parts of the building catch fire, after which guests tied sheets together to escape from their rooms.
Afghan security forces fought the attacks in a gun battle that lasted well into Sunday. Afghan government officials says that four Afghan civilians and 14 foreigners were among those killed. Other reports indicate that the death toll was well over 30.
A Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, claimed credit for the attack, saying, "Our five fighters, Bilal, Ayubi, Khalil, Bashar and Abid entered the building and conducted the operation that resulted in the death of 10 foreigners and Afghan government officials." However, Afghan government officials say that there were only four attackers.
This was not the only Taliban terrorist attack to occur on Sunday.
In Balkh province in northern Afghanistan, the Taliban claimed credit for an attack that killed 18 Afghanistan militiamen on Sunday.
In Herat province in western Afghanistan, eight people were killed by a roadside bomb. No one claimed credit, but it's assumed that the Taliban were responsible. The Taliban were probably targeting police or the Afghan military, but since the eight people killed were ordinary civilians, the Taliban would want to avoid the bad publicity of claiming credit.
There is one thing about Sunday's attacks that I found very interesting: That there were no claims of credit from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Usually, a militia in the Taliban carries out these terror attacks, and then the ISIS public relations agency, Amaq, claims credit for the attack, even though ISIS was not involved and probably didn't even know it was going to happen until they read about it online. Now that ISIS has been defeated in both Syria and Iraq, and the "Islamic State" brand name has been thoroughly humiliated, it may be that the Amaq PR agency is no longer in business. At any rate, Taliban terror groups that used to vow allegiance to ISIS are apparently now back to being just plain, old Taliban terror groups. Tolo News (Kabul) and Fox News and Al Jazeera and Reuters
As I've been writing for years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, a "victory" in Afghanistan is impossible. Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.
There is absolutely no way that this new young generation of Pashtuns are going to enter into any "peace process" with representatives of the hated Northern Alliance, brokered by the old geezers in the Kabul government, supported by the United States. The whole concept of such a "peace process" is so completely ridiculous and absurd that you'd have to be a full-time resident of Fantasyland to think that it's possible.
So the Taliban attack on the International Hotel in Kabul on Sunday was intended to destroy the credibility of the Afghan government and the US-led coalition, and it undoubtedly succeeded.
A massive car bombing in Kabul in July of last year killed 36 and wounded dozens more. It was an attack on the ethnic Hazara community in Kabul, and the Hazaras were one of the ethnic groups in the Northern Alliance fighting the Pashtuns.
In August of last year, dozens of civilian men, women and children, mostly Hazara Shia Muslims, were massacred in a two-day gun battle in northern Afghanistan. About 50 people were shot and killed, 30 houses were torched and burned to the ground, several mosques were set ablaze, and an unknown number of villagers were taken hostages. Seven Afghan troops and 12 Taliban militants were killed in the fighting.
With regard to the two other attacks on Sunday, in Balkh province in northern Afghanistan and Herat province in western Afghanistan, news reports don't indicate what ethnic groups were targeted, but it's almost certain that the targets were government forces or Northern Alliance ethnic groups.
These kinds of attacks are not going to stop. In fact, as more and more members of this young Pashtun generation come of age, the attacks are going to increase.
As I wrote in an analysis last year, the Trump administration is probably well aware that there is no hope of any meaningful "victory" in Afghanistan, but they may have a larger purpose in mind. There are several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. So remaining in Afghanistan allows us continued use of those bases, as the war with China and Pakistan approaches.
This may be a similar strategy to the one that the US military is following in Syria. The US announced a "Border Security Force" (BSF) and a continuing commitment of forces to Syria to avoid repeating the 2011 Iraq withdrawal blunder without leaving any forces behind, allowing the rise of ISIS in Iraq. The US has backed off from the BSF, now calling it a kind of local police force, but its purpose is the same - to maintain a residual American force in Syria to prevent a resurgence of ISIS. The strategy in Afghanistan is similar -- maintain a residual force in Afghanistan, not with the hope of defeating the Taliban, but with the ability to maintain and support valuable military bases.
This is an extremely complex strategy, but it makes a great deal of sense as war with China and Pakistan approaches. In the meanwhile, we should expect a lot more bad news. Khaama Press (Kabul) and Stars and Stripes and Tolo News (Kabul)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jan-18 World View -- Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Jan-2018)
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Summary of major Generational Dynamics predictions
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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While we're stuck with suffering through the unbelievably pathetic clown circus going on in Washington, there are actually things going on in other parts of the world.
Turkey's military operation against Syria's Afrin region that we described yesterday has begun. Turkish warplanes have conducted hundreds of airstrikes at Kurdish YPG (People's Protection Units) targets in Afrin. Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias are moving into Afrin to conduct the ground war. The FSA consists of Arabs and Turkmens opposed to the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
Russia says that it has moved its 300 or so troops out of Afrin to safety. Russia, which controls the airspace over Afrin, is not stopping Turkey's airstrikes, indicating that Russia is giving tacit approval to Turkey's operation.
Turkey's own troops have not crossed the border into Syria, although there have been reports of trucks carrying Turkish tanks crossing the border to Afrin. Turkey would have no reason to commit its own troops unless the FSA troops started getting bogged down.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that the after Afrin the next target will be Manbij. Although Manbij is west of the Euphrates River Valley, there are American units in the region, so a clash with Americans would be a possibility, although it's likely that both sides would do everything to avoid it.
In a speech on Saturday, Erdogan said:
"The promises made to us over Manbij were not kept. So nobody can object if we do what is necessary.Later we will, step by step, clear our country up to the Iraqi border from this terror filth that is trying to besiege our country."
This refers to several American promises that were not kept. The Americans promised that the YPG would be armed and trained only until the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was defeated in Raqqa, but is continuing to arm and train YPG fighters for its Border Security Force (BSF). The Americans promised that they would withdraw as soon as ISIS was defeated, but now are saying that they will stay indefinitely, rather than risk repeating the blunder made with the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq.
Turkey's ground invasion is highly risky. Both the FSA militias and the YPG militias are battle hardened, and the victory in Afrin may not be as quick as Erdogan is fantasizing. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and Hurriyet
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According to Lu Kang, the spokesman for China's foreign ministry:
"On the night of January 17, the USS Hopper missile destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles off China's Huangyan Dao [i.e., the Philippines' Scarborough Shoal] without gaining permission from the Chinese government. ...China has indisputable sovereignty over Huangyan Dao [Scarborough Shoal] and the adjacent waters."
Lu Kang is a serial liar. Whether the subject is Doklam Plateau, the South China Sea, Taiwan, or North Korea, Lu Kang says any nonsense he wants, with no regard for the facts.
China has no sovereignty whatsoever over the Scarborough Shoal. It's within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, as shown by the above map. In 2016, Lu Kang and China were completely humiliated when United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled that all of China's claims in the South China Sea were hoaxes and lies.
Even the word "indisputable" is a lie on its face. Obviously China's claims are disputable, have been disputed, and have been shown to be false. Lu Kang is a serial liar.
American naval spokesman Commander Nicole Schwegman responded:
"The United States conducts routine and regular FONOPs [Freedom of Navigation Operations], as we have done in the past and will continue to do so in the future.We have a comprehensive FONOP program under which U.S. forces challenge excessive maritime claims across the globe to demonstrate our commitment to uphold the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all nations under international law. FONOPs are not about any one country, nor are they about making political statements. FONOPS are designed to comply with international law and not threaten the lawful security interest of coastal States."
That the US simply ignores China's false claims in the South China Sea is undoubtedly very humiliating to the Chinese, who become infuriated whenever anyone challenges their false claims.
This is the second time this week that the Chinese were humiliated by an American action. The US and Canada co-sponsored an international meeting to discuss the North Korea crisis, and China was totally infuriated that it wasn't invited to attend. Foreign Ministry of China and Inquirer (Manila) and ABC News
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The following is a summary of the major Generational Dynamics predictions that I've posted in the past. None of this is new, except that all of these predictions are listed together in one place. These predictions have been essentially unchanged for over ten years.
First, by way of introduction, although I sometimes call myself the gloomiest person in the world, it's worth noting that there are other forecasts that are gloomier than mine. These include the following:
So my oft-stated Generational Dynamics predictions are these:
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Jan-2018)
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The growing conflagration in northwest Syria
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
For months, Turkish officials, including president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have been threatening to invade a region of northern Syria to kill or expel Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militias. The target region is a corridor of land along the northern border between the cities of Afrin in the west and Manbij in the east. We've reported on Turkey's plans to invade Afrin and Manbij several times in the past.
On Friday, Turkish military forces massed on Turkey's southern border with Syria, and began artillery shelling targets within Afrin. This has been described as the beginning of the ground invasion by Turkish officials, but so far Turkish troops have not crossed the border, and no time is being given for when that will happen. Because there have been numerous claims for months that an invasion of Afrin was coming soon, and none has occurred so far, we cannot be certain that an actual invasion will occur at this time, or whether it's just another bluff. Presumably, we will know by the end of the weekend.
If the ground invasion occurs, Turkey's forces will be combined with forces from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is comprised of Syrian Arabs and Turkmens.
This invasion would not lead to a direct conflict with US-backed forces in the recently announced Border Security Force (BSF), because Afrin and Manbij are both west of the Euphrates River Valley, which is the western boundary of the region to be patrolled by the BSF. However, the US State Dept. has counseled Turkey not to attack YPG forces in Afrin, because doing so could destabilize the entire region.
The US has been working with the YPG because the Kurds have proven themselves to be the most effective fighters in Syria against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) -- better than the Turks, the Russians and the Syrians. However, Turkey is infuriated by this relationship, because they consider all Kurds in Syria to be linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is a terrorist group that has conducted an insurgency within Turkey for three decades, and has perpetrated number spectacular terrorist bombings in Turkey. So Turkish officials have called the BSD a "terrorist army" being supported by the US military, and have vowed to "drown" it. Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara) and News Click (India)
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Another major player in the region is the Russian military. Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been pursuing his delusional peace process in Syria with the hope of being recognized worldwide as the man who brought peace to Syria.
Actually, Russia's attempts at peace have just been another farce. Russia, Iran and Turkey held several rounds of peace talks last year in Astana, Kazakhstan, and came up with a plan for four "de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones." Unfortunately, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad did not endorse the talks, nor any of its agreements. So al-Assad has completely ignored the de-confliction zones, using them as cover to continue his genocidal acts, such as attacking innocent women and children in Eastern Ghouta using WMDs (chlorine gas) and barrel bombs. In addition, al-Assad's barrel bombs and missiles are specifically targeting hospitals and schools, in order to destroy as much life as possible.
So Russia's de-confliction zones have simply been turned into al-Assad war zones. Because of his delusional belief in these de-confliction zones, Putin announced in December that the war was over, but it's far from over. Putin also announced that Russian troops would be withdrawn, but repeated attacks on Russia's Khmeimim airbase by "terrorists" means that Russian troops will have to remain, since protection of the base cannot be trusted to dysfunctional Syrian troops.
Another part of Putin's delusional peace plan was that he was going to convince the Kurds to agree to some kind of peace arrangement with Bashar al-Assad, and convince the YPG to give up its weapons, so that everyone could live in peace and happiness.
That plan has already been upended by the US announced of the Border Security Force, which is to consist of 15,000 hardened YPG fighters, along with another 15,000 trainees. Turkey has expressed so much fury and outrage over what it calls this "terrorist army," that the US backing off somewhat, and saying that, oh, it's not really an army or anything like that, but just a bunch of policemen doing guard duty. However, the Turks don't believe that.
But Russia still has a relationship with the Kurds, and last year Putin sent troops to Afrin, presumably to protect the Kurds from the Turks. So there have been reports all week that the Turks were meeting with the Russians to ask for permission to invade Afrin. The reports on Friday were that Russian troops were withdrawing from Afrin, but other unconfirmed reports from Russia say that the Russians are denying that they're withdrawing their troops.
So, we know that Turkey is massing troops, but there are a couple of things that we don't know: We don't know whether Turkey got Russia's permission, and we don't know if Turkey will invade anyway. Jamestown and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Reuters
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Turkey's invasion of northern Syria would come at the same time that Bashar al-Assad is pursuing massive waves of attacks on ordinary civilians in Idlib, another one of Russia's "de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones" which al-Assad has turned into war zones.
There are 2.6 million civilians living in Idlib, and they've essentially become sitting ducks for massive attacks by Syrian and Russian warplanes. ( "14-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe")
Hundreds of thousands of civilians are being forced to flee north toward the border with Turkey, and in many scenarios, they will cross the border into Turkey, and produce new waves of migrants reaching Europe.
At the same time, Turkey is threatening to attack Kurdish enclaves in a region stretching from Afrin to Manbij, creating even more hundreds of thousands of refugees. These two situations could combine to bring about a refugee disaster of massive proportions. This would be a repeat of what's already occurred, when millions of Syrian refugees fled into neighboring countries, with more than a million reaching Europe.
Reading the Turkish media makes it clear that Turkey is becoming extremely nationalistic and xenophobic, with the xenophobia directed not only at the Kurds, but also at Americans and Israelis, who are increasingly being blamed for their troubles. Turkey's relationship with Russia is a marriage of convenience if there ever was one, and the actions by Russia's ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Idlib are creating a refugee disaster on Turkey's doorstep.
Generational Dynamics predictions that I've been posting for years haven't changed. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Anadolu (Ankara) and Al Araby (UK)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Jan-2018)
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Britain will pay £44.5 million to renew the Le Touquet migration agreement
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Thursday, France's president Emmanuel Macron visited Britain's prime minister Theresa May at Sandhurst Military Academy near London, where they announced a collection of military agreements.
The agreements are being described as a new Entente Cordiale ("Friendly Agreement"). This refers to an agreement that the two countries signed on April 8, 1904, resolving long-standing colonial disputes in North Africa, and creating a united front against Germany a decade before the Great War (World War I) began. Under the agreement, France recognized Britain's control over Egypt, and Britain recognized France's control over Morocco. When the German government sent Kaiser Wilhelm II to Morocco in March 1905 to challenge France's hegemony there, Britain sided with France.
The new agreement creates a military alliance between the two largest military powers in Europe, the only two nuclear powers in Europe, and Europe's two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. With Britain leaving the European Union, it was felt that this bilateral alliance between the two countries takes on increased importance.
The elements of the agreement include the following:
According to May, "Together we will continue to play a full role to improve the security of the continent." BBC and UK-France Security and Defense Agreement (PDF) and History.com and International Business Times
As we described two days ago France's president Emmanuel Macron is demanding additional payment from Britain to continue the Le Touquet agreement.
The Le Touquet Agreement was signed in February 2003, and it grants a small region of France's land in Calais to Britain, so that Britain can set up border controls on the French side of the English Channel, rather than on the British side.
Without the Le Touquet Agreement, migrants arriving in Calais could travel to Britain with no hindrance. With the agreement, migrants arriving in Calais are on British soil as they approach the Channel Tunnel, and so they are subject to British border controls before they ever cross the Channel. It's generally agreed that this arrangement has prevented huge waves of migrants from crossing the Channel to reach Britain.
However, French officials have long complained that they bear the economic consequences of the Le Touquet agreement. Thousands of migrants have traveled from countries like Syria, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan to Calais in hopes of crossing the Channel, but instead they get stopped in Calais, and the Calais authorities become responsible for providing humane treatment and dealing with any associated crime, as well as migrant camps like The Jungle. Without the agreement, they would simply travel on to Dover, and Britain would have all those problems.
So on Thursday, Britain's prime minister Theresa May agree to invest £44.5 million ($62 million) to reinforce security measures in Calais, including fencing, CCTV and detection technology.
Britain also committed to taking in a higher proportion of migrants than they have in the past. In particular, they will resettle 480 unaccompanied children currently in Calais. France 24 and BBC and Reuters and BBC
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jan-18 World View -- Britain and France renew 1904 Entente Cordiale with new military agreement thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Jan-2018)
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US, Canada sponsor international North Korea meeting to send signal to China, Russia
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The United States and Canada are co-sponsoring an international meeting to discuss actions to be taken to prevent North Korea's development of a nuclear weapon deliverable by a ballistic missile.
According to Canada's foreign ministry:
"In this spirit, Canada is co-hosting, with the United States, the Vancouver Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on Security and Stability on the Korean Peninsula on January 16, 2018. The Vancouver group of foreign ministers from across the globe will meet to demonstrate solidarity in opposition to North Korea’s dangerous and illegal actions and work together to strengthen diplomatic efforts toward a secure, prosperous and denuclearized Korean peninsula. To this end, foreign ministers will also discuss ways to increase the effectiveness of the global sanctions regime in support of a rules-based international order."
It's almost buried, but the key word here is "denuclearized."
And when you drill down what the term "denuclearized" means to the meeting participants, it means that all nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons development must be completely removed from North Korea, and full, thorough international inspections have to be put in place. When that happens, then all international sanctions will be moved, and the result will be "a secure, prosperous and denuclearized Korean peninsula."
Here's a list of the 20 countries attending the meeting: Canada, United States, Australia, Belgium, Colombia, Denmark, France, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, and United Kingdom.
Two countries are missing: China and Russia.
This is infuriating China. In the delusional New Year's speech of China's president Xi Jinping, he bragged that China will "always be a builder of world peace, contributor of global development and keeper of international order," even though China is an international criminal, having repeated Hitler's actions by annexing other countries' regions and building illegal military bases in the South China Sea. (See "1-Jan-18 World View -- Xi Jinping says that China will now have a 'say' on all international issues")
So China is calling the Vancouver meeting "illegitimate" and "cold war thinking." Russia said that the meeting was "a threat to peace efforts." Russia invaded Georgia and made Georgia's provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia into Russian controlled puppets; Russia invaded Ukraine and Crimea, and illegally annexed Crimea. Russia and China always support each other's criminal activities, and so the US and Canada decided that there was no point in inviting them to Tuesday's conference.
In an interview on Wednesday, president Donald Trump praised China for its efforts to restrict oil and coal supplies to North Korea but said that China could do much more. He also said:
"Russia is not helping us at all with North Korea. What China is helping us with, Russia is denting. In other words, Russia is making up for some of what China is doing. ...But unfortunately we don’t have much of a relationship with Russia, and in some cases it’s probable that what China takes back, Russia gives. So the net result is not as good as it could be."
The official reason being given why Russia and China were not invited to the meeting is that it's a meeting of a 20-country working group that fought in the Korean war 65 years ago. This is an obvious excuse, since the real reason is that China and Russia are not believed and not trusted. In fact, many people suspect that they're happy with North Korea's nuclear missiles, since the nuclear missiles are pointed at the United States, and not at them.
Russia and China want all such meetings to be held in the UN Security Council, where they can give nonsensical speeches and can veto anything they don't like. The fact that Russia and China are so furious that a meeting is being held without them indicates a great deal of anxiety that they may not be able to get away forever with lying and showboating. Canadian Foreign Ministry and South China Morning Post and AP and Canadian Press
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Most of the mainstream media are bubbling with glee at the news of North Korea's participation in the winter Olympics games to be held in South Korea from February 9-25.
The plans for North Korean participation announced so far include:
(Being the cynical person that I am, I'm going to guess that the girls in the 230-member cheerleading squad will be mingling with the North Korean athletes, and will have been trained to watch for and report any signs of defections.)
Many media sources are describing this as a public relations masterstroke by North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un, and that may be right. At the beginning of the year, North Korea was under enormous pressure to end its development of nuclear missiles. He carefully orchestrated the announcements that the North would be participating in the Olympics, and in doing so he bought himself 2-3 months' time to continue nuclear and ballistic missile development with little cost to himself.
It's worth noting that almost all mainstream media sources, even those bubbling over with glee at developments, are questioning Kim Jong-un's motives. Surprisingly, some media sources credit the Olympics games breakthrough to Donald Trump's harsh tweets. One analysis in Seoul-based Chosun Ilbo even worries that the developments will give the North much needed cash:
"North and South Korea will hold a celebration in the North's scenic Mt. Kumgang resort on the eve of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, and have skiers from both sides will train in Masikryong Ski Resort on North Korea's east coast.South Korean officials made the proposal during talks in the border truce village of Panmunjom on Wednesday and North Korea agreed. The latest agreement raises fears that package tours to Mt. Kumgang could resume and provide the North with cash for its nuclear and missile programs, and that Seoul could weaken economic sanctions against North Korea."
In fact, it seems apparent that few people are being fooled by Kim Jong-un's publicity stunt. Even in his New Year's speech in which he announced his participation in the games, and that "people who share the same blood [should] be happy together," he also said that North Korea now has "a super-powerful thermonuclear weapon" such that "the entire US mainland is in our nuclear striking range," so that "The United States can never provoke a war against me and our state." North Korea will "mass produce nuclear warheads and ballistic rockets," in order to create an arsenal of such weapons.
This extremely belligerent threat has not been forgotten, and was well-remembered by the participants in the Canada-US sponsored meeting on North Korea held on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Trump's chief of staff John Kelly was interviewed on Fox News on Wednesday, and said the following about the North Korea situation (my transcription):
"This is one of those things that landed on this president's lap [when he took office]. It's been in the process for 25 years. We've kicked the can down the road. The problem at this point in time is there's no road left. We have to deal with this guy. He cannot have a deliverable atomic weapon that can reach the United States reliably. It just cannot be. Obviously the president would much prefer to do this in alliance with every other nation of good will to convince this guy that it is not in his interest. But I believe we're out of road."
I cannot imagine any statement more clearly made than this one that since "we're out of road," action has to be taken imminently. Furthermore, this is consistent with any number of statements in the last year by Trump, H.R. McMaster, Steve Bannon, Lindsey Graham, and others.
There seems no way out of this. Either Kim Jong-un will have to back down, in which case he'll probably be killed by his generals, or Trump will order some military action to remove the North Korean threat, possibly leading a major regional or world war.
It looks like the North Korea nuclear issue is on pause until the February 25, when the Olympics games end. At that time, I would expect something to happen. Chosun Ilbo (Seoul) and Korea Herald and Washington Post and Reuters
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jan-18 World View -- North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Jan-2018)
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Macron demands more money from Britain and to renegotiate the Le Touquet Agreement
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
France's president Emmanuel Macron visited the port city of Calais on Tuesday, in preparation for a visit to meet Britain's prime minister Theresa May in London, later this week.
Calais is significant because it has the entrance to the Channel Tunnel that provides auto and rail connections through the English Channel to Dover in England. In recent years, refugees from numerous countries, including Syria, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan have made their illegally, often by paying exorbitant rates to human traffickers, to reach Calais, in the hope of finding a way to reach Britain and apply for asylum there.
Calais became the home of a huge migrant camp called "The Jungle," housing 7,000 migrants. French authorities shut the camp down in October 2016, forcing the migrants to disperse or to be housed in refugee centers in other parts of France. In the refugee centers, they could apply for asylum and remain in France if the application was accepted, or be deported to their home countries if the application was rejected. In 2017, there were 100,000 asylum applications in France, 17% higher than in 2016. Among refugees whose asylum applications are rejected, reports indicate that only 20-30% are actually deported.
The Jungle camp was shut down by Macron's predecessor François Hollande, but Macron has vigorously adopted policies to prevent any sort of camp to reemerge. Macron's policies have been so harsh that some pro-refugee activists are comparing Macron unfavorably to the hated former anti-immigrant president Nicolas Sarkozy.
According to various reports, police are treating refugees brutally. Materials such as sleeping bags and covers are being confiscated and thrown out. Refugees are prevented from sleeping in the open, so they have to run into the woods and sleep there. Sometimes the police spray food with teargas so that it become inedible.
According to Macron during Tuesday's visit to Calais:
""There will be no reconstruction of the Jungle and no tolerance for the illegal occupation of public space. ... We have a responsibility to protect those who are in danger, [but] we can't welcome millions of people who live in peace in their countries."
However, Macron's critics say that he is badly out of touch. According to Olivier Brachet, a judge who specializes on asylum cases:
"The policy of Macron belongs to the world of yesterday, not to the world of today. It is very traditional. Yes to political asylum, no to economic migration.Prime ministers and presidents have been saying that already for thirty years. That is not where the problem lies. The problem is sending back irregular migrants to their country. There are no bilateral solutions. In fact, there are only European solutions. Because individual countries are not going to lift a finger by saying, ok, we agree, we’ll take them."
At present, there are still nearly 1,000 people in the region, camped out in one way or another, with 700 migrants estimated in Calais, and a further 300 or so in nearby Dunkirk. RFI and Sky News and Reuters
The Le Touquet Agreement was signed in February 2003 by then French Minister of Interior Nicolas Sarkozy and his British counterpart David Blunkett. In many ways, it's quite novel. It grants a small region of France's land to Britain, so that Britain can set up border controls on the French side of the English Channel, rather than on the British side.
Without the Le Touquet Agreement, migrants arriving in Calais could travel to Britain with no hindrance. With the agreement, migrants arriving in Calais are on British soil as they approach the Channel Tunnel, and so they are subject to British border controls before they ever cross the Channel. It's generally agreed that this arrangement has prevented huge waves of migrants from crossing the Channel to reach Britain.
It's worth noting that the Le Touquet Agreement is a bilateral agreement between Britain and France, and so it is not affected by Brexit. However, it's becoming a bit of leverage to be used by France to gain concessions from Britain in the Brexit negotiations.
According to Calais mayor Natacha Bouchart:
"We are the ones suffering the economic consequences of the [Le Touquet] border deal, which the British have no intention of renegotiating.Aid workers try to help them, and there are local shelters where they can seek assistance. But most don’t want our help. They put themselves in awful situations and don’t want anything from France.
There are between 400 and 600 migrants in Calais. They want to go to the UK and are always making trouble. They stop drivers and jump into UK-bound bound lorries.
They storm the ring road leading to the port and attack riot police using metals bars and heavy objects, risking their lives and the lives of locals. ... The local population is tired of this situation, it’s unacceptable.
The Treaty of Touquet has to be re-negotiated. We cannot satisfy ourselves with a British government that just helps us to keep its own security. They have to give economic compensation to the city of Calais and to its projects."
Reports indicate that, because of Macron's demands, Britain has already agreed to renegotiate the agreement, and in particular has agreed to increase its financial contributions. France's interior minister Gerard Collomb said, "Our understanding is that they will pay more. The question is how much and for what."
There are further discussions of a "Franco-British operational task force," which will be responsible for managing all the migrants on the French side, and Britain will also be required to accept more migrants than it has in the past.
It's believed that neither side has any appetite for abandoning the Le Touquet Agreement altogether, as Calais would immediately become a magnet for thousands more migrants wishing to travel to Britain. France 24 and Express (London) and Telegraph (London) and PDF: Text of 2003 Le Touquet Treaty
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jan-18 World View -- France's Emmanuel Macron vows no more Jungle refugee camps in Calais thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Jan-2018)
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Turkey, Russia and Syria infuriated by the Border Security Force announcement
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The US-led coalition against ISIS in Syria is training a force of 30,000 fighters, mostly drawn from the existing predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in order to form a "Syrian Border Force" (BSF) to prevent a resurgence of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
The purpose of the BSF is to avoid repeating what is seen to be a blunder made by president Barack Obama in 2011, when American troops were withdrawn from Iraq with no continuing presence to prevent the spread of a new insurgency. Many people refer to that as a blunder by Obama that permitted the spread of the ISIS insurgency in Iraq. The intention is that the new BSF will prevent a similar blunder in Syria, now that ISIS is no longer in control of Raqqa.
According to coalition spokesman Colonel Thomas F. Veale:
"The Coalition is working jointly with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to establish and train the new Syrian Border Security Force (BSF). Currently, there are approximately 230 individuals training in the BSF’s inaugural class, with the goal of a final force size of approximately 30,000.The base of the new force is essentially a realignment of approximately 15,000 members of the Syrian Democratic Forces to a new mission in the Border Security Force as their actions against ISIS draw to a close."
As Veale's statement suggests, the training has already been going on for some time. In fact, this is a follow-up from a statement made on December 22 by US Army Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central Command. Votel pointed out that Russia's president Vladimir Putin had declared early in December that ISIS was defeated in eastern Syria, but then ISIS took over six villages in the area just days later.
Votel confirmed, for the first time, that there were 2,000 American troops in Syria, and said that they will be training "border security forces" in Syria:
"[The border security forces] will help prevent resurgence of ISIS and will help bring control. We do it right where it's needed [in Syria].You just can't go in and have a fight and drop a bunch of bombs and then step away from it and think that the problem is solved. This is a reminder of just how resilient and capable this organization [ISIS] is, and how we have to really make sure, as we complete these operations, that we've done it very thoroughly."
The training would include instruction in interrogation, screening, biometric scanning and other skills to help identify insurgents who may be trying to cross into Syria from neighboring countries, now that the emphasis is on stabilization and peacekeeping, not fighting.
There were 230 individuals who were trained in the program announced in December. The US considers the SDF and the Kurdish fighters to have been the most effective fighting force against ISIS, better than Turkish forces and Syrian forces. So 15,000 hardened fighters in the SDF will initially be realigned to a new mission in the Border Security Force, and additional fighters will be recruited and trained, to bring the total BSF force to 30,000.
The BSF will be responsible for patrolling the borders of a region stretching weom the Euphrates River Valley in the east to the Iraq border in the east, and north to the border with Turkey.
The ethnic composition of the force will vary relative to the areas in which it serves, with efforts taken to ensure that people serve close to their homes. This all but guarantees that Kurds, who make up a majority of the population in northeastern Syria, will be establishing checkpoints along the roughly 820-kilometer (510-mile) Syria-Turkey border, while more Arabs will serve in areas along the Euphrates River Valley and along the border with Iraq. The Defense Post (13-Jan) and AP (22-Dec)
The area being patrolled by the Border Security Force seems enormous to many people. Furthermore, while the objective may be to prevent infiltration of ISIS across Turkey's border, it seems likely that a major purpose of patrolling the Euphrates River Value will be to prevent infiltration of Syrian army forces, and a major purpose of patrolling the Iraq border will be to prevent Iran from completing its road connecting Baghdad to Damascus.
Turkey has been complaining for almost two years that while the Kurdish forces in the SDF were fighting ISIS in Raqqa, they could also be preparing for new terrorist attacks in Turkey itself. The Kurds in the SDF are affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which conducted an insurgency within Turkey for three decades, and which has perpetrated major terror attacks within Turkey during the last three years.
Turkey claims that the US promised that the Kurdish forces would no longer be armed, once ISIS was defeated, and that the US is reneging on that promise. Turkey claims that the new Border Security Force will be a Kurdish army poised to attack Turkey.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey will attack the Kurdish forces, and clear its border of "terrorists." That remark apparently was not referring to Kurdish forces in the BSF region, but rather to Kurdish forces in Afrin, and also to Iraq. However, Erdogan also criticized the US support of the SDF:
"Making a terrorist wear a uniform, and flying your country's flag over the buildings they use, does not change any facts. Thousands of weapons sent to the region are already on the black market and some of them are being used against us."
On Monday, Erdogan added:
"The United States has admitted that it has created a terrorist force along our country's border. Our duty is to drown this army of terror before it is born."
Erdogan is threatening an imminent military attack on Kurds in Afrin, Manbij, and other targets in northern Syria. However, he's made such threats before without carrying through.
Russian officials are angered by the BSF announcement because they see that it has no other purpose than to partition Syria permanently:
"In fact, that means separation of a huge territory along the border with Turkey and Iraq. The actions we currently see indicate that the United States does not want to keep the territorial integrity of Syria. We see not the desire to help to extinguish the conflict as soon as possible, but rather the desire to assist those who want to take practical steps for regime change in the Syrian Arab Republic. ...What it would mean is that vast swaths of territory along the border of Turkey and Iraq would be isolated, it's to the east of the Euphrates river. There are difficult relations between Kurds and Arabs there. If you say that this zone will be controlled by the forces supported by the US, there will be a force of 30,000 people. ...
There is a fear that they are pursuing a policy to cut Syria into several pieces."
Not surprisingly, Syria's foreign ministry denounced the plan for the Border Security Force:
"Syria strongly condemns the US announcement on the creation of militias in the country's northeast, which represents a blatant attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity and unity of Syria, and a flagrant violation of international law.Syria considers any Syrian who participates in these militias sponsored by the Americans as a traitor to their people and nation, and will deal with them on this basis."
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
This prediction indicates that the current alliance between Turkey and Russia will end at some point soon. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AP and Russia Today and Al Jazeera
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jan-18 World View -- US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Jan-2018)
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Cameroon crisis escalates as English-speakers flee to Nigeria
to escape French-speakers' violence
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
There are fears that the crisis in Cameroon's Anglophone (English-speaking) regions is spiraling out of control, leading to a refugee emergency, and possibly shutting down cocoa production, an important part of Cameroon's economy.
Tens of thousands of people from the Southern Cameroons, as the Anglophone provinces of Cameroon are known, have been forced to flee across the border into Nigeria in the last three months, to escape increasingly brutal violence by Francophone security forces of the country's despotic Francophone leader, 84 year old Paul Biya, who has been in power 37 years.
Even thousands of cocoa farmers have been forced to abandon their crops and flee to larger towns or to Nigeria. Normally, they produce more than 100,000 tonnes of beans, nearly half of the country's output.
The violence started in 2016, but at the start is one almost entirely one-sided violence, with the Francophone security forces violently attacking peaceful Anglophone protesters.
In 2016, the peaceful protests began with claims by Anglophone lawyers that the legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with many laws passed without even being translated into English. Anglophone teachers joined in, protesting that all courses in the schools had to be taught in French, and that any use of English was forbidden. The Francophone police responded by severely beating several protesters, and shooting two of them dead.
Violence by Francophone security forces grew during 2017, and took a particularly dangerous turn on September 22, when pro-Anglophone activist forces began using small bombs to target local security forces. On October 1, separatists staged a massive march, and declared the independence of Ambazonia. In the increasingly violent Francophone government crackdown that followed, hundreds of people were arrested, and helicopter gunships were used to fire on innocent civilians and kill them, resulting in the mass flight of refugees into Nigeria.
Nigeria is being increasingly drawn into the Cameroon crisis, as Cameroon Francophone security forces have been illegally crossing the border into Nigeria to pursue and arrest refugees fleeing the violence.
On January 5, armed Nigerian security forces stormed a hotel in Nigeria's capital city, Abuja, where Cameroonian activists were meeting, and arrested 15 men and held them in secret custody for over a week. It's feared that Nigerian authorities will extradite the activists to Cameroon, where they'll be held without trial and tortured. This has caused a debate by legislators and human rights activists within Nigeria itself, who say that the arrests were in violation of Nigerian law, and that deporting them would be a violation of international law.
According to Jeffrey Smith of nonprofit Vanguard Africa:
"With elections due later this year, and with President Biya’s increasing unpopularity, this is a potentially explosive situation that merits much more attention than it has been receiving, namely from regional leaders who should, in theory, have an interest in containing the regional unrest."
Presidential elections are scheduled for October. 84-year-old Biya is expected to run again, and to use corruption and force to rig the elections to make sure he wins. Quartz and Reuters and Premium Times (Nigeria) and Amnesty International
The violence in the Anglophone regions of Cameroons has resulted in a significant split in Cameroon's Catholic Church, with accusations being launched between Anglophone bishops and Francophone bishops.
On October 4 of last year, the Anglophone Bishops issued a declaration, excerpted as follows:
"We also condemned in very unequivocal terms the violence perpetuated by some groups of young people on the one hand and the acts of brutality, torture, inhuman and unjustified treatment meted out to some of our youths by the Forces of Law and Order on the other hand. We called on the Government to restrain such barbaric action of the Forces of Law and Order and to bring to justice those of them who had been irresponsible, so that peace may reign. ...Friday, 22nd September 2017, was a very significant turning point. ... [A] huge population of men, women, youths, old and young, and even children turned out on the streets of many towns and villages of the North West and South West Regions to demonstrate peacefully and express their right to self-determination. This peaceful march of mostly innocent citizens, carrying peace plants and shouting “No violence! No violence!” and defying the Forces of Law and Order, should have sent home to the authorities a message of the fact that it was not just a handful of people outside the country calling for this restoration. While some of the Forces of Law and Order, reading the signs of the times, did not react violently, others instead of using their guns to protect citizens, shot live bullets at unarmed civilians, killing some and maiming others. ...
We condemn in the strongest terms possible the barbarism and the irresponsible use of firearms against unarmed civilians by the Forces of Law and Order, even if they are provoked. The divine injunction: “Thou shalt not kill!” remains valid even in such circumstances. We call on the Head of State of the Republic of Cameroon, the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, to stop the bloodbath and genocide that has skillfully been initiated in the North West and South West Regions. Mr. Kofi Annan, Former Secretary General of the United Nations Organization, said that “a genocide begins with the killing of one man – not for what he had done – but for who he is”. The statement by the Minister of Communications, the Spokesperson for the Government, that some Anglophone Cameroonians are “terrorists” is a subtle call for what can be described as “ethnic cleansing” or a genocide as all Anglophone Cameroonians are now considered as ‘terrorists’ and as such they qualify for elimination, just because they are Anglophones! We need to stop the imminent genocide! ...
At the moment, the Anglophone Problem can no longer be taken lightly or ignored. It needs urgent attention, to avoid the growing genocide. People have lost loved ones to brutal killings and do not even know where some of their corpses are now. Every individual who is killed increases the number of aggrieved persons and families, resentment and anger, which are very difficult to address."
Francophone bishops played down this statement by ignoring the issues, but making a general condemnation of all violence, such as this by Francophone Archbishop Samuel Kleda:
"In the name of our common citizenship, brotherhood and humanity, the defense of legitimate interests must go hand in hand with social harmony, which is what is being sought ... Violence, regardless of its source, does not build, it destroys."
However, this infuriated Anglophones, who saw this as trying to evade the issues by lumping them together with all the other problems in Cameroon.
Anglophone Father Gerald Jumbam wrote a letter to Kleda, saying:
"[Cameroonians by virtue of their history] cannot be loyal subjects to the despicable and tyrannous Yaoundé government. Archbishop, you speak of Decentralization and you offer us it as the best gift you think fitting for the resolution of this crisis? We are determined to decline a gift so laden with spurious promises and deceitful propensities."
IDN and Bareta News (6-Oct-2016) and Crux Now
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jan-18 World View -- Cameroon Catholic Church splits over government 'barbarism' and 'growing genocide' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Jan-2018)
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Al-Assad's continued chlorine attacks on civilians follow Putin's 'Grozny model'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Warplanes belonging to the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad carried out chlorine gas attacks in Eastern Ghouta, a city in the suburbs of Syria's capital city Damascus. Health workers said that six people were treated for minor breathing problems.
Canisters of chlorine gas are sometimes called "the poor man's atom bomb." They don't kill large numbers of people, but they have a different purpose of forcing large numbers of people out into the open. This is part of the "Grozny strategy" used by Russia's president Vladimir Putin, so-named because he used it in Grozny in Russia's 1990s war with Chechnya. In the Grozny strategy, civilians are forced out into the open so that they can be targeted like fish in a barrel, and killed in large numbers.
Frequent chlorine gas attacks in Eastern Ghouta are part of that strategy. The regular missiles and barrel bomb explosions force civilians, especially women and children, to hide in basements or deep in building interiors. Chlorine gas is heavier than air, so the chlorine gas seeps into underground hiding places, and forces the women and children out into the streets, where al-Assad's forces can massacre the women and children in large numbers. Al-Assad considers these women and children to be cockroaches, and are to be exterminated like cockroaches.
Al-Assad is following the same policy he used a year ago to totally destroy East Aleppo, with 275,000 people, in about six months. Eastern Ghouta has about 400,000 people, so al-Assad has a long way to go. Al-Assad has also targeted Ghouta with several Sarin gas attacks.
In the meantime, his warplanes are specifically targeting hospitals and schools, and the army is preventing food and medicines from entering the region, so that the people can be starved to death. This is the same technique used by al-Assad last year to destroy East Aleppo. BBC and Daily Mail (London) and LA Times (13-Feb-2017) and CNN (7-Sep-2016) and Arms Control Association (17-Nov-2017)
The regime of Syria's president is pursuing a strategy in Idlib province that could trigger a refugee "catastrophe," and send hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees north across the border into Turkey, and from there into Europe.
According to Thomas Garofalo of the International Rescue Committee (IRC):
"We are extremely concerned for the safety of the 2.6 million people living in Idlib if the frontline continues to advance. People have told us that they will have no choice but to uproot themselves once again and head further north. They will be heading to displacement camps that are already far beyond capacity, which means their situation will get even worse, in the dead of a wet, cold winter."
Previously, an estimated 1.1 million people have fled to other parts of Syria.
Already, more than 70,000 people have fled their homes and moved further into Idlib to escape the latest wave of al-Assad's violence. Many have sought refuge near the border with Turkey. Activists say whole villages near the frontline have been abandoned. "There could be a really parlous humanitarian catastrophe," said one European diplomat.
As hundreds of thousands of refugees flee north toward the border with Turkey, Turkey's army is prepared to block them from crossing the border. These refugees will be trapped, and they'll be sitting ducks as targets of Syrian and Russian airstrikes, including barrel bombs, chlorine, and Sarin. Since Turkey is preventing them from escaping, Turkey will become active partner in the mass slaughter, and they'll be accused of allowing it to happen. Rather than being accused of enabling al-Assad's mass slaughter, Turkey may well be forced to permit them to cross the border to flee al-Assad's violence
Another possible scenario is that rather than be blamed for helping the mass slaughter, Turkey may decide to fight the Syrians, and may be joined by Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Generational Dynamics prediction is of a major war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other, and this is one scenario how it can occur.
No matter which of these scenarios occurs, hundreds of thousands of refugees will pour out of Idlib into Turkey, and then into Europe.
As I've written many times in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far this century. The Syrian war began in 2011 when al-Assad ordered his army and air force to attack peacefully protesting civilians, including women and children. Things really worsened in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians. He dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons onto innocent Sunni women and children, he targeted bombs on schools and hospitals, and he used Sarin gas to kill large groups of people.
Both Eastern Ghouta and Idlib Province are supposed to be in "de-escalation zones," and free from attacks. These de-escalation zones were negotiated by Russia, Iran and Turkey. As I wrote all along, they had no chance of working since al-Assad did not agree to them, and had no intention of honoring them. The de-escalation zones are a total farce on the part of Russia, a farce compounded in December when Vladimir Putin declared that the war had ended. Guardian (London) and Al Araby (UK) and Guardian (London)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(14-Jan-2018)
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US-Pakistan relations continue as before, despite US aid cutoff
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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It was less than two weeks ago when president Donald Trump made a scathing criticism of Pakistan's "lies and deceit" related to the Afghanistan war, and said that $2 billion in security aid to Pakistan would be suspended. It was widely feared that this announcement would cause US-Pakistan relations to spiral into open hostility and a complete break. ( "3-Jan-18 World View -- US-Pakistan relations hit major crossroad, as US cuts aid")
Well, apparently nothing has really changed. Even the inevitable angry words haven't been particularly harsh. Yes, some feelings were crushed, and Pakistan's Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa said that "the entire Pakistani nation felt betrayed." However, nothing worse than that has happened. In fact, since Trump's announcement, there have been two phone calls between Bajwa and US CENTCOM military commander General Joseph Votel.
This was summarized in a tweet from Pakistan's military:
"Comd USCENTCOM & a US Senator telephoned COAS to discuss security coop post POTUS tweet. “Entire Pakistani nation felt betrayed on trivialising our decade old cooperation. We won’t ask for restoration of financial assistance but honourable recognition of our contributions”, COAS. http://pic.twitter.com/oHEQGGvyIf"
According to an unnamed senior Pakistani foreign ministry official:
"There is no freeze [in relations]. We are speaking to each other, at all levels. We are not sharing the details of that at this time, but the effort to find some common ground or traction on both sides is there."
This sentiment was confirmed by a US State Department official, also unnamed.
Richard Snelsire, the spokesperson for the US embassy in Islamabad, said: "We have received no notification regarding a suspension in defense and intelligence cooperation."
In fact, a few harsh words from Trump are not the worst thing that has happened to US-Pakistan relations. In 2011, the US conducted a military operation on Pakistani soil to capture Osama bin Laden, and that REALLY infuriated the Pakistanis. Later, a US air strike inside Pakistan killed more than a dozen army soldiers and officers. In reaction, Pakistan closed down the supply lines to the US forces in Afghanistan, and only reopened them after the US apologized.
So US-Pakistan relations weathered those crises, and have apparently weathered the current crisis, and things are going on as before. Reuters and Al Jazeera and Dawn (Pakistan)
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Because Afghanistan is a land-locked country, the US-led NATO coalition in Afghanistan receives supplies that arrive in Pakistan's port in Karachi. The supplies then take a full week to travel overland by truck to reach Afghanistan. When Pakistan shut down this supply route in 2011, supplies had to take a very long route through Central Asia.
So now the NATO coalition forces are asking Pakistan to permit supplies to arrive in Pakistan's China-built Gwadar port. From there they would be loaded onto trucks and reach Afghanistan within 24 hours, rather than a week.
And this brings to mind one of the great issues that the pundits discussed after Trump announced the cutoff of aid to Pakistan: That cutting ties with Pakistan would push Pakistan further into the arms of China.
It's true China and Pakistan describe their relationship as as "all-weather friends, deeper than the deepest ocean, sweeter than honey and dearer than eyesight" and all that. However, there's a whole nother side to that issue that hasn't been mentioned much: Pakistan doesn't want to be China's bitch.
Particularly in the last one or two years, China has been harshly rolling over Pakistan, with issues related to the $60-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China is demanding full control of infrastructure such as dams and power plants. China will control thousands of acres of Pakistani land to gain access for Pakistan's agriculture to meet China's food needs. Thousands or tens of thousands of Chinese workers are already flooding into Pakistani cities and towns, creating "Chinatowns" across the country. Mandarin Chinese is already a required school subject in Sindh province. The Pakistani culture will be transformed in many places to a Chinese culture. China will install an elaborate electronic surveillance system in Pakistani cities, for use with policing, similar to the harsh electronic surveillance systems being installed in China itself.
The worst may be that China is setting a debt trap for Pakistan, similar to what it's already done in other countries, such as Tajikistan and Sri Lanka. Pakistan will be $90 billion in debt to China, and will have to repay China over 30 years. If Pakistan fails to repay it, then China will take over territory and other Pakistani assets. So Pakistan's relation with China may be "dearer than eyesight," but that doesn't mean that Pakistan wants to be a full-fledged colony of China, just as it once was, along with India, a full-fledged colony of Britain.
There's also an emerging controversy over the port at Gwadar. China insists that the purpose of CPEC is purely commercial: to provide a way for goods to travel from China's Xinjiang province to the Indian Ocean, and Gwadar port is the endpoint. But in the last month, speculation has been growing that China plans to turn Gwadar into a Chinese military naval base. The speculation has emerged over the question of how China is going to provide security in the Gwadar port.
Both China and Pakistan are denying the speculation. An unnamed Pakistani official is quoted as saying, "Pakistan Navy is well-equipped to handle the security of Chinese shipments, and we will manage the security of the shipments effectively."
Unfortunately, such assurances by China are completely laughable, since China has pretty much zero credibility about anything. When China began building illegal artificial islands in the South China Sea, they insisted that they were purely for commercial use, and would be popular tourist attractions. That was simply a lie. Today, those islands are full-fledged military bases, bristling with Chinese missiles, warplanes, radars, bunkers, and other military equipment. No tourists are welcome.
So now NATO is asking Pakistan to allow its military supplies for Afghanistan to transit through Gwadar port, and Pakistan is said to be considering the question. Presumably, one of the issues that Pakistani officials are considering is this: Gwadar is supposed to be a commercial port, so let's make some money from it by allowing NATO shipments, and then use that money to pay off the humongous debt we owe to China. Whether China will be happy with that solution remains to be seen.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia, Iran and the West. Asia Times and Jamestown and VOA and Daily Pakistan and Value Walk and The Hindu
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jan-18 World View -- US requests Pakistan's permission to ship Afghan supplies through Gwadar seaport thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Jan-2018)
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Tunisia protests evoke memories of the 2011 'Arab Spring'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Tunisia police have arrested over 600 people since Sunday, when widespread peaceful anti-austerity protests began to turn violent. Protesters in 20 cities, including the capital city Tunis, have attacked police stations and government buildings and set tires on fire in the streets. Over 50 police officers were wounded.
Anti-austerity activists are calling for large new protesters across the country today, after Friday prayers. The protests were triggered by new austerity laws that came into effect at the beginning of this year.
Tunisia has been pursuing a strategy of economy reform geared towards cutting government expenditure and devaluing its currency. The protests were triggered by the 2018 Finance Act that came into effect on January first, with the goal of reducing the budget deficit. It raised value-added tax (VAT) on cars, alcohol, phone calls, the internet, hotel accommodation and other items,
The austerity measures were put into place based on requirements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In 2016, the IMF gave a four-year $2.8 billion loan to Tunisia, but payments are tied to the Tunisian government carrying out economic and social reforms.
After a review of Tunisia's economy in October of last year, the IMF statement said:
"IMF staff and the economic team of the new government agreed that front and center of all reform efforts is the need to create jobs and contain debt. Better managing the public-sector wage bill, which is among the highest in the world and absorbs half of total expenditure, will be indispensable. ...Specifically, the budget bill would focus on reducing the deficit through comprehensive tax reform and rationalizing inefficient expenditure. It would also dedicate more resources in support of SMEs. Executed within an adequate framework, investments through public-private partnerships (PPP) could improve the quality of infrastructure and help free up resources for other high priority spending on health and education.
Ensuring the sustainability of the social security system, improving governance and oversight of loss-making public enterprises, and modernizing the civil service remain critical structural reforms to reduce fiscal risks and make the overall economy more competitive."
So prices have been rising significantly since January 1, but salaries have been frozen.
Tunisia's unemployment rate is high, with the result that more than 60% of working men and 83% of working women are part of the country's growing informal economy. AFP and Express (London) and International Monetary Fund (6-Oct-2017) and Middle East Eye
The so-called Arab Spring was triggered a Tunisian food vendor, resulting in protests about food prices that seem remarkably similar to those occurring today.
By January 2011, there were massive protests and gun battles in Tunisia, forcing the president to flee the country. The protests spread to Egypt, resulting in the resignation of long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak.
The protests also spread next door to Libya. By February, the bloodbath in Libya spread from Benghazi and Tobruk in the east to Tripoli in the west. Dictator Muammar Gaddafi threatened to shoot to kill protesters, and said he'll crush any enemy. This caused a massive refugee crisis in Libya, with hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into neighboring countries. It's this huge destabilizing refugee crisis in Libya, along with the threat of a flood of refugees crossing the Mediterranean to Europe, that led the Arab League to demand that the West implement a no-fly zone, and approval by the UN Security Council. The no-fly zone eventually led to the war in Libya, and the death of Muammar Gaddafi.
There was also a refugee crisis in Tunisia, sending thousands of Tunisians across the Mediterranean Sea to Italy.
In the end, Tunisia's president Zine el Abedine Ben Ali stepped down gracefully, and left behind a secular government. Tunisia is considered by many to be the only country that weathered the Arab Spring in a successful manner, emerging as a secular democracy.
However, the last six years have not been kind to Tunisia. The worst occurred in 2015, when there was a major terrorist attack at a museum in Tunis in March.
But this was followed by an even more horrific attack in June, when a gunman disguised as a tourist opened fire at a Tunisian hotel in the beach resort Sousse, killing 37 people. He arrived at the beach in a boat, and hid his weapons in an umbrella. He removed the weapon, a Kalashnikov assault rifle, from the umbrella and strolled through the hotel grounds, opening fire at the pool and beach, reloading his weapon several times and tossing an explosive.
This has been devastating to Tunisia's tourist industry, which accounts for 15% of its GDP and most of its foreign currency revenues.
Now the new round of violent street protests are raising fears that the country is becoming unstable. Tunisia escaped the worst of what happened to other Arab countries after the Arab Spring, but it may turn out that the worst was simply postponed. Euro News and Foreign Policy (3-Jan-2011) and CNN
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jan-18 World View -- Tunisia anti-austerity activists call for huge protests on Friday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Jan-2018)
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Nigeria searches for solutions to problem of herders vs farmers
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In what is being called a "harvest of deaths in the new year," more than 80 people in Benue State province of Nigeria have been killed in just the first ten days of this year in tit-for-tat clashes between farmers and herders. There have been similar clashes in other provinces. In several years of these clashes, there are now more than 80,000 displaced people, forced into refugee camps.
Herders are mostly Muslims from the Fulani tribe. Farmers are mostly Christians from a number of tribes, including the Tiv, Mambila and Bachama tribes.
In a recent incident over the weekend, more than a dozen people were killed. Unidentified gunmen from the Bachama tribe attacked Fulani settlements on Friday, in revenge for previous attacks by Fulanis. On Saturday, Fulanis conducted a reprisal attack. Four Fulanis and eight Bachamas were killed. Residents of the affected village put the death toll at 40, though this could not be verified.
There has been an ongoing stream of these tit-for-tat attacks, which have been getting increasingly violent, leading to fears of a larger war.
Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari is being blamed for the violence, but he says that the problem is caused by population growth. A statement from the president's office notes that the population of Nigeria was 63 million in 1960 when it achieved independence, and adds:
"Today, the population is estimated at close to 200 million, while the land size has not changed and will not change. Urban sprawl and development have simply reduced land area both for peasant farming and cattle grazing.It is therefore both unfair and unkind for anyone to keep insinuating that the president is condoning the spate of killings in Benue and other neighboring states.
President Buhari has publicly condemned the violence at every turn. He is prepared to permit every possible step that can lead to the stoppage of the killings."
However, Buhari himself is a Hausa-speaking Fulani from northern Nigeria. Although he's repeatedly condemned the deadly clashes as "wicked and callous," many people in other tribes and political parties suspect him of supporting the attacks for political gain.
Nonetheless, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Buhari is correct. Conflicts between herders and farmers are common in many countries, and I've described them in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s. As population grows, the farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down. This Day Live (Nigeria) and AFP
In order to stop the violence, the governor of Benue State has passed an "Anti-Grazing Law" that came into effect in November, as I reported at the time in the growing violence between herders and farmers in Nigeria. The law prohibits open grazing of cattle, and requires herders to maintain their herds of cattle on ranches. As I wrote at the time, the new law is somewhat laughable, as there's no way that it will stop Fulani herder attacks on farmers. And it certainly hasn't stopped the violence.
The Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN), which is the lobbying group representing Fulani herders, are blaming the Anti-Grazing Law for increasing violence, since the law has encouraged the growth of vigilante farmer groups attacking herders and they cattle.
Another proposed solution is being opposed by MACBAN: The implementation of "cattle colonies" across the country. The herders will be given large blocks of land, having adequate water and pasture for grazing of cattle. A standard cattle colony will also have shopping and supply centers for dairy products, with abattoirs and meat warehouses for processing finished products.
Herders would be restricted to the "cattle colonies," so it's not surprising that MACBAN opposed them. Furthermore, no matter wonderful promises the politicians make about the colonies, everyone can be sure that herders will be given whatever block of land nobody wants, and herders would become completely marginalized.
The herder association are expressing an entirely different solution -- adopt the European system of providing subsidies of a few euros a day for each dairy cow that a farmer or rancher owns and maintains.
These subsidies are part of the European Union's controversial €58 billion per year Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Since the UK pays a significant amount of that money, CAP may not survive Brexit intact. Leadership (Nigeria) and The Nation (Nigeria) and Politico (EU)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jan-18 World View -- Tit-for-tat violence between Nigeria's Muslim herders and Christian farmers becomes more serious thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Jan-2018)
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Venezuela threatens to end trade with Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Venezuela's Socialism continues to destroy the economy. More and more, people are losing weight because of food shortages, and children are dying in hospitals because basic medicines aren't available.
The bolivar currency, in which the "sainted" former president Hugo Chávez took such pride and pleasure, is today worth little more than toilet paper, with the country's inflation rate around 600%, expected to rise to 2,300% in 2018, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Venezuela has more oil than any other nation in the world, but because of successful implementation of pure Socialism by Chávez and by the current dictator, Nicolás Maduro, the oil company PDVSA has been nationalized and turned over to the dictator's Socialist cronies, who are so corrupt and incompetent they couldn't operate a bicycle, let alone an oil company.
The result is that oil production keeps falling. It's absolutely incredible how much destruction Socialism is doing to Venezuela's economy. In December, Venezuela produced 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, down 27% since 2014, and the lowest level of production in 28 years. Even though global oil prices have been rising in the last few weeks, it's done little good for Venezuela because oil production keeps collapsing.
Since oil is pretty much Venezuela's only export that it can use to earn foreign currency (dollars), Venezuela can no longer import food or medicines, which is why people are starving to death and babies are dying in hospitals.
Maduro is hoping that Russia or China will bail him out, the way that they used to bail out Cuba's Socialism. However, those countries really don't care about Venezuela and so it will be bailed out only to the extent that it annoys the United States.
With the bolivar currency more worthless than toilet paper, and with food and medicines almost impossible to buy, hundreds of thousands of people from Venezuela have been crossing the border into Colombia, some just to get food to take back home, some to earn money to take back home to family.
There's an ironic twist. When it was available, food was heavily subsidized in Venezuela. So people living near the border would buy subsidized food in Venezuela and sell it in Colombia at much higher prices.
This is no longer possible. Instead, citizens now take anything they can from Venezuela and take it across the border to sell it and earn Colombian pesos, and then use those pesos to purchase food, medicines, and other basic products needed to survive. They can then sell those products on the black market in Venezuela at a much higher price. Rice, for instance, can be bought in Colombia for the equivalent of about 1,300 bolivars and sold in Venezuela for around 1,800 bolivars.
With hundreds of thousands of refugees possibly turning into millions, Colombia's own economy may become destabilized. According to Jozef Merkx, head of the U.N. High Commission on Refugees in Colombia, the Colombian government will have the primary responsibility of providing documentation, health services, education, and in some cases shelter to the migrant influx. This is a problem facing many countries around the world where huge numbers of migrants and refugees are fleeing violence and starvation. Vice News and Reuters and CNN and Reuters (8-June-2016)
Venezuela is threatening to end all trade with three Caribbean islands governed by the Netherlands -- Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire. And the reason is the same as for Colombia.
Venezuelans are smuggling goods into those three islands, just as they are into Colombia.
Venezuela's Socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro is seeking to blame anyone but himself for the disaster he's caused. Often he blames a criminal conspiracy by the United States.
But now he's blaming "the mafias" for his disaster. In December he said,
"In Aruba and Curaçao, the mafias are tearing us apart, and I have even thought about closing all means of communication, and all commercial interaction, of all kinds: Both air and sea with Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire at any time.I’ve thought about it seriously, about the mafias that take everything — the oil, rubber, shampoo, meals, everything — and for Cúcuta ... And Maicao ... Oh, we have a surprise for you."
On Friday of last week, Maduro began to implement his "surprise."
He suspended all air and sea traffic with Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao. The suspension was supposed to last only 72 hours, but on Monday he not only extended the suspension indefinitely, but also prohibited all trade between the islands and Venezuela.
Venezuela's vice president Tareck El Aissami announced the extension by echoing Maduro's words and saying that they will combat "the mafias that steal our assets and smuggle with impunity strategic materials, which severely affect the services and quality of life."
This could be financially disastrous for the three islands, because they have a big economic dependency on Venezuela. Fresh fruit and vegetables arrive at the islands in small boats from Venezuela.
Most important, Venezuela's oil company PDVSA leases refineries in Curaçao and Aruba to process crude into gasoline, naphtha, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, base oils and lubricants, and to blend its diluted extra-heavy crude with light crude for export, much of it sent to PDVSA's US-based subsidiary, CITGO. On Bonaire, PDVSA owns a large oil terminal.
So far, Maduro's blockade of the three Caribbean islands has not affected their relationship with PDVSA. However, in view of the concern that this will be Maduro's next step, the government of the Netherlands has been asked contact Venezuela's government and "to seek clarity from Venezuela" with regard to commercial relations. PanamPost and Telesur and Hellenic Shipping News and Jamaica Observer and Miami Herald
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jan-18 World View -- Venezuela threatens to close borders with Colombia and Dutch territories thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Jan-2018)
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The 'Jungle' is closed in Calais France, but the migrants aren't gone
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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France registered over 100,000 migrant asylum requests in 2017, the highest number in over four decades, up 17% from the previous year, though officials say they're not overwhelmed and can cope with the situation. This compares to a 16% rise in 2016.
Ironically, the greatest number of migrants come from within Europe itself. Albania tops the list of countries of origin with 7,630 requests, up 66% from the previous year. Afghanistan is second with 5,987 requests, followed by Haiti with 4,934, Sudan with 4,486, and Guinea with 3,780 asylum requests.
Germany receives a greater number of asylum requests, and expects to receive 200,000 requests in 2018. Reuters and France 24 and YeniSafak (Turkey) and Exit (Albania)
Although Albania is a European country, it is not part of the European Europe, and it is not in the Schengen Zone where people can move from country to country without a visa. Nonetheless, a number of European countries, including France, permit entry without a visa by someone with an Albanian passport, and Albania is in negotiations with to become a member of the EU.
However, because the volume of asylum seekers coming from Albania is so large, France is threatening to advocate a return to the Schengen visa regime for Albania, and to veto any further negotiations over joining the EU. Germany and the Netherlands have made similar threats.
Albania has long been the poorest country in Europe, and in 2016 had a GDP per capita of about $4,100, according to the World Bank. This is the reason that so many young people in Albania wish to migrate to other European countries, and in fact figures from the IMF indicate that 2/3 of young people in Albania intend to leave Albania for another country, if they can.
The problem for these young people is that although currently they can travel to other European countries without a visa, they can only remain for a limited time, and they do not qualify for asylum. Since the European Union has declared that Albania is a "safe country of origin," all migrants from Albania are considered to be "economic migrants," who do not qualify for asylum.
So among the Albanians who made asylum requests in 2016, on 6.5% of the requests were approved. By comparison, the approval rate was 95% for Syrians, 85% for Afghans, and 59% for people from Sudan. Exit (Albania) and Balkan Insight and Exit (Albania) and International Monetary Fund (PDF)
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The "Jungle" was the migrant camp in Calais, France, where migrants would come in the hope of reaching Britain. France closed the Jungle camp in October 2016, and have done everything possible to prevent the creation of a new migrant camp.
Nonetheless, there are still about 500 migrants and asylum seekers living on the streets and in wooded areas in and around Calais, according to Human Rights Watch, and about 100 are unaccompanied children. Most of them are from Eritrea, Ethiopia and Afghanistan.
According to HRW, French riot police have been confiscating or destroying asylum seekers’ and other migrants’ personal belongings, such as sleeping bags, blankets, clothing, and sometimes phones, medication, and documents.
According to HRW: "The ongoing police violence and destruction and confiscation of people’s belongings is inhumane and unconscionable. The French authorities should immediately put an end to these abuses and ensure that migrants are treated with the dignity to which every human being is entitled." Human Rights Watch
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jan-18 World View -- Number of asylum seekers, led by Albanians, hits record high in France thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Jan-2018)
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Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh continues to grow
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has taken credit for a terrorist attack on Burmese security forces on Friday in northern Rakhine State in Myanmar. A military vehicle was attacked with an IED (improvised explosive device), injuring five soldiers.
On Sunday, a statement tweeted by ARSA took credit for the attack:
"ARSA has ... no other option but to combat ‘Burmese state-sponsored terrorism’ against the Rohingya population for the purpose of defending, salvaging and protecting the Rohingya community.Rohingya people must be consulted in all decision-making that affects their humanitarian needs and political future."
Since 2011, Burma's security forces have been committing mass atrocities on mostly Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine State, what the United Nations says is "a textbook example of ethnic cleansing," and which some Western governments are calling genocide. The atrocities include gang rape, violent torture, execution-style killings and the razing of entire villages, in a scorched earth campaign. Many were forced to flee into neighboring Bangladesh. Today, there are about 650,000 Rohingyas living in refugee camps in Bangladesh.
Western governments have been demanding that Burma stop the ethnic cleansing and genocide, and agree to a plan to repatriate the 650,000 Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh. However, this entire repatriation plan was always a fantasy, for several reasons:
So the repatriation plan is a fantasy that was and is never going to happen, but now Myanmar's government can use the ARSA attacks as one more reason to refuse to agree to the plan. AFP and Guardian (London)
Since 2011, there have been constant genocidal attacks on Muslims in Burma, especially Rohingya Muslims by Burmese Buddhists. They have been led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," where 969 is a historic Buddhist sign, referring to the nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and nine qualities of the Buddhist community. "969" is supposedly a sign of peace and happiness, but Wirathu and the Burmese have turned "969" into a sign of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
As we reported last month, a UN investigator on the Rohingya crisis was scheduled to travel to Burma right about now, but Burmese officials announced they were blocking any further UN investigations. Yanghee Lee, the lead UN investigator, responded to the ban by saying, "there must be something terribly awful happening in Rakhine."
ARSA was formed in the last year in reaction to the years of ethnic cleansing by Buddhists. The situation in Burma became a lot more alarming after ARSA attacked some Burma border posts on August 24. Burma's army responded with a massive increase in genocide and ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas, forcing hundreds of thousands more to flee into Bangladesh. An analogy in the US would be that after Black Lives Matter killed a policeman, if the US army started entering black neighborhoods and killing, torturing and raping all the black civilian residents, including women and children, forcing them to flee into Mexico.
The refugee crisis in Bangladesh continues to grow. The Burmese army is still committing ethnic cleansing, and there are still Rohingyas fleeing into Bangladesh to escape the violence. According to an analysis by Save the Children, more than 48,000 Rohingya babies will be born in refugee camps this year, where disease and starvation are prevalent.
The refugee camps may become completely unlivable in May, when the rainy season begins in May. When the monsoon rains arrive, there is a strong likelihood of landslides, causing shelters, latrines and people to come crashing down on top of one another.
An analysis by Indian journalist Manash Ghosh claims that the entire Rohingya crisis is the result of well-planned strategy by four nations -- Myanmar, China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Each of these countries has a different reason to be part of this planned strategy:
I always have to chuckle at these bizarre conspiracy theories, because they're always wrong, and because they always overlook the obvious fact that politicians are far too stupid to pull off anything so complex. Still, it's an interesting analysis because it describes some motives that are not otherwise obvious.
Burma's ethnic cleansing and genocide of Rohingyas did not come about from any "well-planned strategy" by a bunch of politicians. It came from the people of Burma, and the fact that Burma is entering a generational Crisis era.
It's the masses of Buddhist Burman people who are bringing about the genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, as I described in detail last year in "9-Sep-17 World View -- Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas witnessed by BBC reporter", as acts of revenge for what happened in World War II. At that time, the Buddhists were on the side of the Imperial Japanese, fighting the British colonists and the Rohingyas. There were massive atrocities committed on all sides, and those atrocities by the Buddhist Burmans, by the Muslim Rohingyas, and by the Christian British, are now being paid back. As that article describes, the murderous Buddhist hatred for the Rohingyas is deep and entrenched, and cannot be caused or prevented by any politicians.
Once the war ended, the Buddhist and Rohingya survivors of World War II did everything possible to make sure that no such atrocities would be committed again. There were compromises -- the Rohingyas could settle and live peacefully in Rakhine State but they wouldn't be given citizenship -- and it was hoped that would be enough to keep the peace. And it did, as long as the WW II survivors were still alive. But now they're gone, and the generations born after WW II are ready to commit the same atrocities all over again. The Buddhists have been committing atrocities against the Rohingyas at least since 2011. Now ARSA is beginning to take hold, and we can expect to see more Rohingya atrocities targeting the Buddhists. Before it's over, all the horrors of World War II will repeated in one form or another. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Daily Star (Bangladesh) and Daily Star and The Pioneer (India)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jan-18 World View -- Rohingya ARSA attack on Burma (Myanmar) police complicates fantasy repatriation plans thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Jan-2018)
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Russia's 'de-escalation zones' turn into total farce
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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I've written many times and given detailed examples of what happens to countries following a generational crisis civil war. Such a war is generally between two tribes or ethnic groups who have been neighbors for decades, who intermarried, and whose children played together, but then suddenly they turn on each other and commit atrocities, rapes, murders, torture, mutilations and massacres on their former neighbors, including women and children.
When such a war ends, someone, usually from the winning tribe, becomes leader, and almost always this is someone who had directed or approved these atrocities, rapes and massacres, and in his mind considers them to have been completely justified. It should not be considered the least bit surprising that such a person turns into sociopathic monster, just like individuals like John Wayne Gacy, Ted Bundy, Jeffrey Dahmer, and David Berkowitz.
The difference, of course, is that these individuals can carry out further atrocities, rapes and mutilations only through their own resources, while country leaders can turn the entire government into a genocidal bulldozer. These include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hun Sen in Cambodia. In the last century, they include Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong.
So Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad is continuing with full force his war of extermination against his historically hated enemies, the Syrian Sunnis. He's made it clear repeatedly that he considers them all to be the equivalent of cockroaches, and are to be exterminated, just like cockroaches. Furthermore, he's receiving the full support of Russia's Christian president Vladimir Putin, Iran's Shia so-called cleric Seyed Ali Khamenei, and Lebanon's own psychopathic Shia monster, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. These people all claim to have some level of piety, but if their religions mean anything, then they'll all burn in hell for their monstrous sins.
As I've written many times in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far this century. The Syrian war began in 2011 when al-Assad ordered his army and air force to attack peacefully protesting civilians, including women and children. Things really worsened in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians. He dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons onto innocent Sunni women and children, he targeted bombs on schools and hospitals, and he used Sarin gas to kill large groups of people.
It's almost unbelievable how much destruction al-Assad has caused. Thanks to al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei, about 50,000 jihadist fighters from 86 countries came to Syria, first to join the rebels fighting al-Assad, then to join the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra, and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Al-Assad created the al-Nusra front and ISIS. He's created millions of refugees that have flooded into neighboring countries, and over a million have poured into Europe.
18 months ago, Bashar al-Assad, Putin, Khamenei and Nasrallah were targeting East Aleppo in Syria, with 275,000 people, including huge numbers of women and children. By the time it was over, there were hundreds of thousands of deaths, and the city was almost completely destroyed.
So now al-Assad, Putin, Khamenei and Nasrallah are doing the same thing to Eastern Ghouta, with 400,000 people, including huge numbers of women and children. Ghouta became world famous in 2013 because it was the place where al-Assad used the WMD Sarin gas on ordinary civilians.
Last week, at least 25 civilians were killed by regime and Russian airstrikes, followed by 17 on Saturday.
Aid agencies have told the BBC that the airstrikes are particularly targeting hospitals. At least 10 hospitals have been targeted by airstrikes in the last two weeks. These include barrel bombs targeting a maternity hospital, presumably because al-Assad believes that the babies being born in these maternity hospitals are just baby cockroaches, and they should be exterminated immediately.
So if it took al-Assad about six months to totally destroy East Aleppo, with 275,000 people, then we can expect him to take about ten months to similarly destroy Eastern Ghouta, with 400,000 people. Al-Assad has a lot more women and children to kill, and a lot more maternity hospitals to bomb, so it will take a while. BBC and AFP and Reuters
Al-Assad has indicated that he will next turn his attention to Idlib and the neighboring parts of northwest Syria, now home to more than 2 million people, many of them refugees from East Aleppo and other regions attacked by al-Assad.
According to Russians, Ghouta and Idlib were all supposed to be "de-escalation zones," by agreement of Russia, Iran and Turkey in meetings in Astana, Kazakhstan. I always said that those meetings and agreements were a complete farce for the obvious reason that they involved Russia, Iran and Turkey, but not the actual people fighting on the ground, al-Assad's army and Sunni opposition fighters. And we're seeing that farce now. The de-escalation agreements are completely meaningless, since al-Assad never had any intention of following them. That would have been like the U.S. and Mexico trying to end World War II in Europe by signing a de-escalation agreement with each other in Acapulco. It's just a complete farce.
Readers may recall that in November, Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hugged each other, and said the war was over. Putin said:
"I asked the Syrian president to stop by. I would like to introduce you to people [al-Assad] who played a key role in saving Syria.Regarding our joint operation to fight terrorists in Syria, this military operation is indeed coming to an end. I'm pleased to see your willingness to work with everyone who wants peace and settlement."
This can only be described as more high farce.
So the question is this: How long is this unbelievable carnage going to go on? Bashar al-Assad has been killing innocent women and children for seven years, and has created millions of refugees. Is he going to be allowed to continue killing innocent women and children for another seven years? How long will it be before anyone says, Enough! Reuters and Al Jazeera and BBC (13-Dec-2017)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Jan-2018)
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Forces realign in the Yemen war following the death of Ali Abdullah Saleh
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Friday, Iran-backed Shia Houthis launched a ballistic missile from Yemen into Saudi Arabia's southwestern province of Najran. The Saudi military confirmed the launch, but said that it did no damage, as it was intercepted by Saudi air defenses of Najran.
The Houthis have launched several missile attacks on Saudi Arabia recently, and the Iranians have been accused of supplying the Houthis with these missiles and other weapons.
However, the death of Ali Abdullah Saleh last month provides unique evidence that not only is Iran supplying weapons to the Houthis, it's also providing intelligence and possibly directing all the actions of the entire Houthi force.
Saleh's Sunni forces had been working side-by-side for years with the Houthis in opposition to the Saudi-led coalition. This alliance was always a marriage of convenience of two groups that disliked each other, and it's not surprising when the alliance finally fell apart on December 4 of last year. Two days later, the Houthis ambushed Saleh and killed him and his entire family.
The Houthis gained a huge cache of weapons, and they killed many of Saleh's former aides and fighters, but not all of them, and some of them fled to Aden.
BBC reporter Nawal Al-Maghafi, speaking on the BBC World Service on Friday, said she had tracked down Saleh's closest aide, now in Aden. The aide said:
"I was with him, and he was defending his home, with his aides and nephews by his side. Three or four tanks surrounded his house. They began firing."
Al-Maghafi asked the aide about the presence of Iranians, and he said:
"There are Iranians by their side, and they tell them exactly what to do. I saw them with my own eyes. They give them weapons, but it's the information they give that is most important. I met the Iranian advisers when I was with Saleh. They were always beside the Houthi leaders."
Al-Maghafi said that while she was in Sanaa, she was able to speak with "other well-placed sources [who] all confirmed the existence of the Iranian advisers."
Iran's substantial support for the Houthis has been long suspected, but of course always denied by the Iranians. Al-Maghafi's reporting provides the first on-the-ground proof of the Iranian support. AFP and Al Jazeera and Sky News
The Yemen war began for real in March 2015, when the Iran-backed Houthis took control of the capital city Sanaa, forcing the Sunni government to flee to the port of Aden in the south. Since then, at least 10,000 civilians have been killed, mostly in airstrikes in the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis. There have been 40,000 injuries.
According to UN humanitarian official Mark Lowcock:
"The situation in Yemen - today, right now, to the population of the country - looks like the apocalypse.The cholera outbreak is probably the worst the world has ever seen with a million suspected cases up to the end of 2017.
[A] terrible new epidemic of diphtheria (a bacterial disease which should be completely preventable by immunization) has already affected up to 500 people with dozens and dozens of deaths in the past few weeks. That is going to spread like wildfire.
Unless the situation changes, we're going to have the world's worst humanitarian disaster for 50 years."
The war worsened substantially when the Houthis launched another ballistic missile on November 4. It reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800 km from the Yemen border, the farthest any Houthi missile had traveled.
In retaliation, Saudi Arabia broadened a land, air and sea blockade, preventing even food and medicines from entering Yemen. This was threatening massive starvation and causing a deepening and increasing humanitarian disaster that was too much for Ali Abdullah Saleh, who at that time was still in his marriage of convenience with the Houthis. Saleh split with the Houthis, and offered to mediate between the Houthis and the Saudis.
On December 4, the Houthis ambushed Saleh and his family, killing them all.
Since that time, there's been a realignment of forces. Some of Saleh's fighters have stayed with the Houthis, but most of them have headed south to Yemen, joining the official Yemen army still led by former president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi.
According to some reports, the Houthis have been losing ground to Yemen army, backed by Saudi coalition airstrikes, but things are extremely fluid.
We can now be certain that the Yemen war is a full-fledged proxy war between Saudi Arabia, which is providing airstrikes and weapons to Yemen's army, versus Iran, which is providing weapons, intelligence and direction to the Houthis. It seems certain that the Yemen war is not nearly over. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera and Arab News and The National (UAE)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jan-18 World View -- Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Jan-2018)
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The stark choice facing the Trump administration
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A few days ago, I quoted a couple of sentences from the New Year speech of North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un. It now appears that the speech fits into a much larger North Korean strategy, so I'm quoting a lengthier excerpt, translated directly from the original Korean by KGS Nightwatch:
"A significant achievement accomplished last year by our party, state, and people is the fact that we achieved the great historic cause of the perfection of the state nuclear forces.A year ago, precisely at this place, I, representing the party and the government, made public that the preparatory work for a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic rocket was being carried out in the finishing stage, and many rounds of test launches were conducted in a safe and transparent manner over the past year for its implementation, and its definite success was proved to the whole world.
Last year, we conducted a super-powerful thermonuclear weapon test as well, in addition to all kinds of nuclear delivery means, and thereby successfully and victoriously achieved our general aim and strategic goal, and our Republic, at long last, possessed a powerful and reliable war deterrent that no force and nothing can reverse.
Our state nuclear force can smash and respond to any nuclear threat by the United States, and it serves as a powerful deterrent that restrains the United States from the adventurous game of playing with fire.
The United States can never provoke a war against me and our state.
The United States should clearly know that the fact that the entire US mainland is in our nuclear striking range, and that a nuclear button is always on my office desk, are never a threat but reality. ...
The nuclear weapons research and rocket industry sectors must mass produce nuclear warheads and ballistic rockets, whose might and reliability are already firmly guaranteed, and put spurs to the work of deploying them for action.
It is also necessary to always maintain an immediate nuclear counterattack operational posture to cope with the enemies' nuclear war maneuvers. ...
Speaking of the winter Olympic games to be held soon in South Korea, they are a good opportunity to demonstrate the nation's status and we sincerely hope that the games will be held successfully. From this aspect, we are willing to take necessary measures, including sending a delegation, and the North and South authorities can urgently get together for this. It is natural for the people who share the same blood to be happy together and help with fellow countrymen's happy events."
The speech was considerably harsher and more belligerent than has been reported in the mainstream media, which have mostly focused on the "nuclear button" button on his desk.
Donald Trump tweeted the following in response:
"North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"
The mainstream media responses to this appear to have been written by teenage idiots. Some question his mental state, and as I'm typing typing this, I'm watching CNN discuss this topic: "Psychiatrist to lawmakers: Trump is unraveling." As one analyst on Fox pointed out, the loony left accused Goldwater, Reagan and both Bushes of being mentally unstable, so the latest rounds of loony left comments are no surprise.
There's no question in my mind that Trump's tweet had a strategic purpose. One possibility -- and this is the sort of thing I've suspected for a while -- is that Trump is trying to goad Kim into doing something stupid, to justify an American attack to take out North Korea's missile and nuclear weapon capability. A more prosaic possibility is that he's trying to force Kim into a box to reduce his negotiating leverage, and that apparently has happened with regard to South Korea.
Trump takes the credit for planned talks between North and South Korea:
"With all of the failed “experts” weighing in, does anybody really believe that talks and dialogue would be going on between North and South Korea right now if I wasn’t firm, strong and willing to commit our total “might” against the North. Fools, but talks are a good thing!"
As I'm typing, CNN is now broadcasting an interview with an analyst, Ian Bremmer, who is critical of Trump but describes a likely strategic purpose of Trump's tweets: He is crediting Trump with causing China to take a harsher position against North Korea, and possibly causing North Korea to talk to South Korea, while adding that the tweets might backfire and result in a miscalculation that causes a war. Reuters and KGS Nightwatch and Chosun Ilbo (Seoul)
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Following Kim's New Year's speech, a North Korean official announced that the hotline between North and South Korea has been reactivated for the first time since February 2016. There were apparently negotiations conducted over the hotline, there may have been a decision that a North Korean delegation would attend the South Korea Olympics in February, and North Korea may have been informed that South Korea and Donald Trump had acceded to the North's demand to postpone the joint military drills between South Korea and the US until after the Olympics. There are reports that talks between the North and the South will begin on January 9 in Panmunjom.
On Wednesday, North Korean media issued a "clarification" of Kim's New Year speech beginning:
"Comrade Kim Jong Un, who is chairman of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea State Affairs Commission, after receiving a report -- that South Korea's Ch'o'ngwadae announced official support and welcome upon hearing his stand on participation in the PyeongChang Olympic Games and the issue of improvement of North-South relations that he announced in the 2018 New Year's address, and that at the first cabinet meeting on 2 January, president Moon Jae-in personally expressed an active intention of support and instructed relevant sectors to establish working-level measures -- gave a highly positive assessment of it and expressed his welcome for it."
Here is the KGS Nightwatch analysis of the full clarification:
"The so-called clarification is Kim’s follow-up to South Korea’s acceptance of his offer. It is unprecedented. Kim’s personal involvement indicates he sees this proposal as much more than an offer to participate in the Olympics.The agreement to work with South Korea is now as formal as an exchange of notes can get. Kim mentioned South Korean President Moon by name in respectful fashion. This is the first time he has done so.
Kim personally ordered agencies and organizations to begin working-level measures that reciprocate the measures that President Moon ordered. The listing of the party and government organizations that received direct orders from Kim reinforce the judgment that this is a highest priority, serious initiative and stratagem.
We have mentioned in prior editions of NightWatch that Kim’s highest objective in the nuclear and ballistic missile programs has been to hold one of more US cities hostage to a nuclear missile threat for the purpose of keeping the US out of a future Korean war. The logic of that position also applies to North-South in general, especially reunification.
For Kim Jong Un, the proposal to participate in the Olympics is not just a first step towards improving North-South relations. It also is his first initiative in the new strategic environment in which, in his view, South Korea cannot necessarily rely on the US for automatic protection, owing to the threat to US cities.
This is not the same old wedge-driving tactic. In our judgment it is the start of the second phase of Kim’s reunification strategy. The first phase was to complete the strategic nuclear force so that it deters the US. The second phase is to manipulate the Korean political climate under that new strategic condition.
A key question for Kim and his acolytes is whether South Korea will react differently to North Korean overtures, now that the US is under a North Korean nuclear threat. The Olympics proposal tests whether North Korean nuclear blackmail makes South Korea more cooperative. If it is successful, Kim may be expected to cite it as an example of what can be accomplished by the Koreans working together without US interference.
Kim’s authorization of a clarification suggests that he and his men are interpreting President Moon’s enthusiastic response to Kim’s proposal as an initial success in phase two. For example, the US Ambassador to the UN said the US would not take the North’s proposal seriously absent a move on denuclearization. That statement is out of step with the South Korean response to Kim’s proposal.
Kim’s strategic weapons are integral to his reunification strategy. Moon thus far is validating Kim’s estimate of the prospects for improved relations with South Korea without the US under North Korean leadership."
Yonhap News (Seoul) and KGS Nightwatch and CNN and Chosun Ilbo (Seoul)
Kim's New Year speech contains some extremely harsh messages that are rarely mentioned in the mainstream media:
According to Kim, North Korea now has "a super-powerful thermonuclear weapon" such that "the entire US mainland is in our nuclear striking range," so that "The United States can never provoke a war against me and our state." North Korea will "mass produce nuclear warheads and ballistic rockets," in order to create an arsenal of such weapons.
We know that North Korea will not hesitate to sell its missile and nuclear technology. In 2007, Israel bombed and destroyed a nuclear reactor in Syria that had been built by the North Koreans. There's little doubt that North Korea would once again sell its technology to Syria, Iran, and another other rogue nation.
So that's the disastrous reality that the Trump administration is facing. Those idiots who are calling Trump "mentally unstable" and such are people who are endorsing the decades of policies that have inevitably led to this disastrous reality.
Trump has indicated that he will not permit the above reality to occur. I've quoted other officials, such as Lindsey Graham, who say that a war between the US and North Korea is inevitable. In fact, I've quoted high level Chinese officials quoted in Chinese media saying that a war before March is likely.
As regular readers are aware, I've frequently described how Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief adviser. Bannon is an expert on world history and military history and, through our association, is also an expert on Generational Dynamics theory and analysis. Trump's foreign policy in the last year has not only been completely strategic and rational, it has been entirely consistent with the Generational Dynamics analyses of what's going on in the world, in particular the certainty that a war with North Korea cannot be avoided.
As everyone knows, during the last two days there have been explosions and fireworks in the media over name-calling between Trump and Bannon. A split between Trump and Bannon does not mean that Trump no longer believes that a war with North Korea is inevitable.
Kim Jong-un is aware of all this as well, and a large part of Kim's strategy must be to derail Trump's plans, whatever they are. This is a crucial point that the KGS Nightwatch analysis misses. There is absolutely no way that Kim is going to get away with using nuclear blackmail to allow him to create a nuclear missile arsenal aimed at the US. For that matter, Japan, South Korea, and even China will not allow that kind of blackmail, since they know that Kim would just continue blackmailing them on other issues, and that Kim could turn those missiles on them, and also sell the nuclear and missile technology to other Asian states.
The South Korean Olympic games are scheduled to run from February 9 to February 25. Whether the child dictator's new strategy will work should become evident soon after that. National Interest and Chosun Ilbo (Seoul)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jan-18 World View -- North Korea reveals major change in strategic direction thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Jan-2018)
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India to help construct Mongolia's first oil refinery
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Khaltmaa Battulga, a fierce critic of China, won the June 26, 2017, election for president of Mongolia after a highly nationalistic campaign, taking advantage of the deep anti-China xenophobia across the population. At the beginning of the campaign his slogan was "Mongolia First," echoing Donald Trump's "America First" motto. He frequently mentioned "threats" from the east, meaning China.
During the campaign, Battulga even referred to his opponent contemptuously as an erliiz, a person of mixed Mongolian and Chinese heritage, and used the slogan "Mongol Ylna" (a Mongol will triumph) to point out that only he had a Mongol origin. Battulga also advocated greater economic independence from China.
There's a bit of a backstory to Battulga's campaign for president.
It's worthwhile pausing here to say again that China has always claimed that it never interfered in other countries' internal affairs. So whenever someone complained that China was jailing, torturing and massacring peaceful protesters or Tibetans or Uighurs, Chinese officials would ignore the complaints, saying it was an internal matter.
China's policy was phony, of course, and that's illustrated by what happened to Mongolia in 2016. In November, Mongolia invited the Dalai Lama to visit for a four-day trip. The Dalai Lama is revered by Buddhists in Mongolia, but also by Buddhists in China's Tibet, which is why Chinese officials hate him.
So China punished Mongolia in December 2016 by closing part of the border, leaving hundreds of trucks carrying copper and coal backed up on the highway in sub-zero temperatures. Mongolia was forced to make an official apology.
So now move forward in time to the presidential election campaign in 2017. One can well imagine that this contemptuous treatment by China infuriated the Mongolian electorate, stoking nationalism and xenophobia towards China.
So it appears that China's policy of punishing Mongolia has backfired, and was an important part of the election of China's nemisis, Battulga. China would have been better off following its fictional policy of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs. East Asia Forum (11-Aug-2017) and The Diplomat (3-Oct-2017) and Foreign Policy (5-Dec-2016) and The Citizen (India)
Much to China's displeasure, India will be invading China's backyard by helping to build Mongolia's first oil refinery. India is also providing a $1 billion credit line to finance the projects. The 20-year loan will have an interest rate of 1.75 percent and principal payments will be waived during the first five years. This rate is considerably lower than China is reportedly charging countries for One Belt One Road infrastructure, with the objective of avoiding a disaster similar to the one Sri Lanka suffered when they had to give China control of Sri Lanka's seaport in lieu of repaying the loan to finance building the seaport.
Mongolia is landlocked, lying between Russia and China, and those countries are its main trading partners. Presently, Mongolia exports crude oil to China, but imports refined petroleum products from Russia. Once the project is completed, The refinery will have a processing capacity of 1.5 million metric tons of oil per year and will annually produce 560,000 tons of gasoline and 670,000 tons of diesel fuel, as well as 107,000 tons of liquefied gas, giving an enormous boost to Mongolia's economy.
The project will substantially reduce Mongolia's dependence on China for its energy needs, and bring Mongolia closer to India. Sputnik News (Moscow) and Swarajya Magazine (India) and Tribune (India)
Mongolia is a land-locked country nestled between Russia and China. Thus, most of its history is dominated by its relationship with those two countries. In the 1200s, the Mongols under Genghis Khan conquered and dominated China, in a generational crisis war that climaxed in 1206, forming the Mongol Empire, the largest empire in history. In the next generational crisis war, Genghis Khan's grandson, Kublai Khan, conquered all of China, and created the Yuan Dynasty in 1271.
The Yuan Dynasty ruled all of China until it was overthrown by the Chinese Ming Dynasty in 1368. By 1636, all of Mongolia was conquered and ruled by its successor, the Qing Dynasty.
The Qing dynasty fell in 1911 in a generational Awakening era climax, part of which was a proxy war between China and Russia in Mongolia. Mongolia was under a Soviet-dominated Communist regime for almost 70 years, from 1921 to 1990. In 1932, a crisis war began in the form of a Buddhist rebellion against Russia's communist government.
After declaring independence from China in 1924, the People's Republic of Mongolia remained embroiled in rivalries between Russia and China, and so maintained its communist identity, giving up its Buddhist identity for secularism. Thus, Javzandamba Hutagt, the 9th Bogd (spiritual leader of Mongolian Buddhists), born in Tibet in 1932, was barred from traveling to Mongolia until the end of Mongolia's communist era in 1990, as the Soviet Union collapsed. Since then, Mongolia has been increasingly turning from secularism back to its Buddhist roots, and the Dalai Lama has played an active part, much to the consternation of the Chinese. In particular, the Dalai Lama hopes to defeat China's attempt to name his successor, by declaring that the next Dalai Lama will be born on Mongolian soil.
Mongolia is a resource-rich country, with big deposits of copper, coal, gold and oil. In 2011, Mongolia economy grew by an astronomical 17.5%, thanks to its huge reserves of copper, coal and gold, making the economy seem invincible. Instead of saving some of that money, Mongolia borrowed billions of dollars to invest in huge road and infrastructure projects. When the price of commodities collapsed, Mongolia's economy was in serious trouble.
Mongolia is hugely dependent on China, which receives 90% of its exports. So Mongolia was hurt even further when China decided to punish Mongolia, after the visit by the Dalai Lama. Mongolian Embassy and University of Central Arkansas and CS Monitor
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jan-18 World View -- Mongolia turns to India, as nationalism and xenophobia towards China grow thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Jan-2018)
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Ohhhhhhhh noooooo! Chocolate may be extinct by 2050!
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In a tweet posted on Monday, Donald Trump wrote:
"The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!"
On Tuesday, US Ambassador Nikki Haley at the United Nations anncouned that Washington would withhold $255 million in assistance to Pakistan. Haley said, "There are clear reasons for this. Pakistan has played a double game for years. They work with us at times, and they also harbor the terrorists that attack our troops in Afghanistan. That game is not acceptable to this administration. We expect far more cooperation from Pakistan in the fight against terrorism." Haley said that the US may take additional steps.
Although Pakistani officials were infuriated by the tweet, a three-hour meeting of Pakistan's National Security Committee (NSC) decided that Pakistan must not give any "knee jerk" reaction to the tweet, and they reached the conclusion that despite "unwarranted allegations, Pakistan cannot act in haste."
Pakistan's government did summon the US ambassador and register a protest, but did not take the next logical step of recalling its own ambassador from Washington.
The NSC statement said that the committee was of the firm view that the real challenges in Afghanistan were political infighting, massive corruption, phenomenal growth of drug production and expansion of ungoverned spaces inside the country full of sanctuaries for multiple international terrorist organizations posing a serious and direct threat to Afghanistan, its neighbors and the entire region. Reuters and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and CNN
Tuesday's tweet by Trump could not have been a surprise, as it was the culmination of any number of announcements data back years.
In a surprise visit to Kabul, Afghanistan, three weeks ago, vice president Mike Pence warned that it was putting Pakistan "on notice":
"Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our efforts in Afghanistan. The days to shelter terrorists have gone. It has much to lose by continuing to harbor terrorists.For too long Pakistan has provided safe haven to the Taliban and many terrorist organizations, but those days are over. President Trump has put Pakistan on notice."
Major Geneneral Asif Ghafoor, Pakistan's chief military spokesperson, responded angrily to Pence's claims, saying that there was no organized infrastructure of any terrorist outfit inside Pakistan. Ghafoor said that Pakistan will no long allow itself to be bullied by the United States, and blamed India for the problems in Afghanistan:
"We have fought an imposed and imported war twice in Pakistan, and now we cannot do any more for anyone.The US needs to check India’s anti-Pakistan role not only from inside of Afghanistan but also through the enhanced and increased ceasefire violations along the LoC [Line of Control in Kashmir] and the Working Boundary so that Pakistan remains focused on peace not only in Pakistan but beyond."
Ghafoor read out this statement in English, to make it clear that he was directing it at the United States.
The US has been giving aid to Pakistan ever since 9/11/2001, when America came to depend on Pakistan's help in the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Annual aid to Pakistan peaked at $3.5 billion in 2011, but the relationship with Pakistan was strained by the 2011 raid on al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad that revealed that he had been hiding in plain sight in Pakistan.
Pakistani officials claimed surprise that bin Laden was hiding out in Pakistan, but those denials have never been believed. Since then, both the Obama administration and Congress have been cutting aid to Pakistan. Funding fell below $1 billion in the 2016 budget request.
So Trump's decision this week to very publicly cut aid to Pakistan is not something out of the blue, but has been coming for several years. China has previously said that it would make up for any aid reduction by the US.
This bizarre relationship between the US and Pakistan can only be understood in the context of the war in Afghanistan. Trump claims that the US is going to defeat the Taliban and win the war in Afghanistan, but as I've written in detail in the past, that's completely impossible. There is no possible victory in Afghanistan.
I wrote a lengthy analysis in August in "23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'". As I pointed out then, and numerous times in the past, Trump's foreign policy strategy is completely consistent with the Generational Dynamics analysis of the world. As long time readers are aware, I've worked on several projects in the past with Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief adviser. Bannon is an expert on world history and military history and, through our association, is also an expert on Generational Dynamics theory, whose principles he's passed on to Donald Trump. Mainstream journalists and analysts are mostly completely baffled by Trump's foreign policy decisions mainly because they have no clue about generational theory.
So Trump knows that we're headed inevitably for war with North Korea, China and Pakistan, and his policies are guided by that reality. Trump's very public scathing criticism of Pakistan, and the decision to cut aid, make perfect sense if you realize that there's no point in paying money to a country that you're going to be fighting in a war.
Pakistan's leaders are generally contemptuous of America's leaders, but now they've come to a crossroads and have to make a decision. On the one hand, they want American aid, and they want access to a number of American weapons systems. Trump's harsh message can be paraphrased as follows: Help us in Afghanistan a lot more than you have, and try to win back enough trust to get what you want from America, or else continue as before on the path eventually to cutting all ties with America.
The fact that Pakistan's government did not yet recall its ambassador to Washington indicates that they realize that this is no easy decision. Geo TV (Pakistan, 22-Dec) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Foreign Policy (23-Aug)
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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), climate change will force the plants that produce chocolate into extinction by 2050. According to the NOAA, they'll die off because the rain forests are disappearing.
Chocolate extinct! Thank goodness I won't be around to see that! CBS News and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jan-18 World View -- US-Pakistan relations hit major crossroad, as US cuts aid thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Jan-2018)
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Trump and Netanyahu express solidarity with Iranian protesters
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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At least 15 people have been killed in widening street protests in Iran, and Iran state television reports that one of the dead and several of the wounded are police officers.
During the 2009 demonstrations, retaliation by Iran's security forces and by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) was rapid and bloody. Iran's government is anxious avoid a repeat of the 2009 violence and bloodshed, and so the police have been restrained, and the IRGC has not gotten involved so far. However, the apparent ambush of a police officer may be a game-changer.
The BBC's Iran correspondent Rana Rahimpour described how the protests got started (my transcription):
"They are being careful about how forcefully they respond to these protests, because as [president Hassan Rouhani] has already acknowledged, people have a very legitimate reasons to be angry.Over the last few months, there were scattered, relatively small protests against many of the investment banks that have gone almost bankrupt, had been shut down by the government, and more than two million people have lost their life savings.
And the first Death to Rouhani slogans that we had started from those smaller protests. So he knows that people have good reasons to be angry. We're talking about serious corruption among the political élite. We're talking about unemployment, which according to his interior minister, in some parts of the country that's up to 60%.
These investment banks were apparently involved the same sorts of fraudulent deals as the US banks were during the subprime real estate crisis. As their bad debt accumulated, they went bankrupt and two million people lost their life savings. When the protests last week in Mashad in northeastern Iran, it was specifically in reaction to the corruption related to the bank bankruptcies, where a lot of ordinary people lost their life savings, while many in the political élite did well.
According to Rahimpour, the trigger for the current explosion in protests was Rouhani's release of the upcoming annual budget, which fully revealed the level of corruption:
"Three weeks ago, president Rouhani released the details of his upcoming budget for the Iranian new year in March, in which it became clear that he doesn't have any control over more than half of the budget, that are already going to many religious organizations. And that went viral. People got extremely angry. Cause we're talking about people that have lost their life savings, many factory workers haven't been paid for months, they can't pay their loans, they can't pay their mortgages.And suddenly they realize that OK, these religious clerical organizations are getting millions. So that's one reason for anger. They've raised the price of bread, recently. There's talk of raising the price of petrol. So all of this together, and possibly interference of regional rivals as President Rouhani said, together, the situation was ripe for unrest like we're witnessing right now."
On top of this, it's becoming widely believed among the Iranian protesters that Iran got a huge financial bonanza from the Iran nuclear deal and the ending of sanctions, but that the money had benefited these same clerical institutions, but hadn't benefited the ordinary people at all. This is the basis of the call for an end to the clerical regime.
In comparing to the 2009 protests, these protests are smaller, but they're far more widespread. The 2009 protests were concentrated mainly in Tehran, while the new protests are taking place in many smaller towns across Iran. Furthermore, unlike the 2009 protests, the current protests seem to be completely spontaneous and leaderless, and are spreading through social media.
Without a protest leadership, the police are unable to target a single person or group of people. For that reason, the government is shutting down access to social media in the hope of suppressing the protests that way. Tehran Times and BBC and Al Jazeera and Reuters
As long-time readers are aware, I predicted over ten years ago, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would be a United States ally in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war.
Ten years ago, the idea that Iran and the US would become allies seemed fantastical and insane. But during the Barack Obama administration, whatever one thinks of the Iran nuclear deal, Iran and America overcame much of the vitriolic rancor that separated them.
The reason that Iran and the US are becoming allies is generational. The hardliners in Iran are in the dying generations that fought in the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, and considered the Iranian Hostage Crisis a great victory for them. However, those people are dying off, and the generations growing up after the war are pro-Western and pro-American. At some point, there will be an "Awakening climax" in Iran, like the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974, that signals the victory of the younger generations over the war survivors, and the end of the hardline regime. A likely outcome is that Iran will become the same kind of ally as it was under the Shah of Iran, prior to 1979.
So we're seeing Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu expressing friendship and support for Iran -- but not for the old geezers in the hardline regime, but for the young generation of protesters.
Donald Trump tweeted as follows:
"Big protests in Iran. The people are finally getting wise as to how their money and wealth is being stolen and squandered on terrorism. Looks like they will not take it any longer. The USA is watching very closely for human rights violations!Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching!
The entire world understands that the good people of Iran want change, and, other than the vast military power of the United States, that Iran’s people are what their leaders fear the most."
Israel's president Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video in which he said the following:
"Iran’s cruel regime wastes tens of billions of dollars spreading hate. This money could have built schools and hospitals. No wonder mothers and fathers are marching in the streets. The regime is terrified of them, of their own people.This regime tries desperately to sow hate between us. But they won’t succeed. And when this regime finally falls, and one day it will, Iranians and Israelis will be great friends once again. I wish the Iranian people success in their noble quest for freedom."
The possible friendship between Netanyahu and the Iranian people exposes an important conflict in the geopolitics of the Mideast.
Recently, Israel has been closely allied with Egypt in fighting Islamist terrorists, especially in Egypt's northern Sinai. Egypt has also been an ally of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Arab split that led to the blockade of Qatar over its close relations with Iran.
Israel has also recently been closely allied with Saudi Arabia because of their common enmity to Iran.
If you connect all those dots and now throw in a possible future détente between Israel and Iran, then you quickly arrive at a conflict. This is not a trivial situation, and will almost certainly lead to some kind of conflict not currently anticipated.
Generational Dynamics predictions that I've been posting for years haven't changed. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Reuters and Jerusalem Online
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jan-18 World View -- Escalating violence in Iran protests brings calls for Iran-Israel friendship thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Jan-2018)
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North Korea says that its nuclear arsenal protects it from attacks
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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China used to brag that it never interfered in other countries' business. Whenever someone complained that China was massacring peaceful protesters or Tibetans or Uighurs, Chinese officials would say that it's an internal matter, and just as China didn't criticize other nations' internal matters, other nations should just leave China alone.
But according to China's president Xi Jinping's delusional New Year's address to the nation, all of that is changing now that both Xi Jinping and China have become strong and powerful:
"As a responsible major country, China has something to say.China will resolutely uphold the authority and status of the United Nations, actively fulfill China's international obligations and duties, remain firmly committed to China's pledges to tackle climate change, actively push for the Belt and Road Initiative, and always be a builder of world peace, contributor of global development and keeper of international order. The Chinese people are ready to chart out a more prosperous, peaceful future for humanity, with people from other countries."
One can only shrug and wonder what much of this means. With regard to upholding the United Nations, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague has already ruled that China is an international criminal. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea") China is also the principal supporter of Russia in illegally annexing Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. China has no intention of upholding the authority of the United Nations, except selectively for its own benefit.
Xi Jinping says that China will "always be a builder of world peace, contributor of global development and keeper of international order." Does anyone seriously believe that?
I've gotten quite a bit of reaction to my October 24 World View article, Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism. In that article I wrote that the Chinese people themselves have become almost completely delusional. Press reports indicate that many Chinese, especially young Chinese, believe that China's Socialism has already beaten the United States. They believe that because China is a dictatorship, it can accomplish things that a democracy can't, and therefore can defeat the Western democracies at any time of their choosing.
The things that I've been told are all anecdotal, but they're consistent. Chinese people consider themselves superior to Americans and other Western people, and expect to use military power (war) to dominate the world, and set up a "new world order."
From what I can tell, Chinese people don't actually hate Americans. They save that vitriolic hatred for other Asians, including people from Vietnam, the Philippines, Korea and Japan. One person told me how contemptuous the Chinese he's spoken to are towards the people from Hong Kong and Taiwan. Another person wrote,
"The Chinese are arrogant, rude, intolerant, loud, demanding and overbearing. They flaunt their wealth and rule over underlings, especially foreign ones, with an iron fist and a bamboo rod. Other Asians despise them and wherever they go as tourists they are disliked and held in disdain as being little more than peasants with credit cards."
I keep comparing the Chinese today to the Nazis of the 1930s, and the points of comparison keep growing. The Chinese seem to consider themselves to be the "Master Race," just as the Nazis did. The Chinese consider it their right to annex regions belonging to other countries, just as the Nazis did. And the "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is the same as Nazi's "National Socialism."
A lot of these impressions are anecdotal, but they're consistent. If there are any Chinese people out there who think that I'm wrong, then please write to me and tell me that I'm wrong and why. Because I would very much like to be wrong.
I frequently quote Friedrich Nietzsche and I do so again now: "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."
As things stand, China is delusional and on the same path as Nazi Germany. China will cause a catastrophe to itself and the rest of the world. History will look back on China as the worst disaster to the world in history, worse than the Nazis and the Imperial Japanese combined. By 2050, China will be worse off than it was in 1950. Xinhua and Times of India and Scroll (India)
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If Xi Jinping's speech sounded delusional about foreign policy, it sounds totally wacky on economic issues.
According to Xi, in only three more years, by the year 2020, those rural residents who are currently living in conditions of extreme poverty should be lifted above the poverty line:
"It would be the first time in thousands of years of Chinese history that extreme poverty had been eliminated. It is our solemn promise.Only three years are left to 2020. Every one of us must be called to action, do our best ... This is a great cause, important to both the Chinese nation and humanity. Let's do it together and make it happen."
Just in general, the whole "poverty" concept is largely a hoax. Regulators always define the "poverty line" that separates the poor from the rest, so that there are always 10-12% of people in poverty. This is a matter of definition. Whatever algorithm regulators use to define poverty, it always comes out so that 10-12% of the people are in poverty.
No matter how wealthy a country is, there's always a poorest 10-12%. So by definition, poverty can never be cured.
So here's Xi Jinping promising to end poverty in China by 2020, three years from now. China is known to lie about economic statistics, and it may simply be that Xi Jinping believes what his government tells him.
China claims an annual 6.9% growth rates, but I've heard many analysts claim that the true figure is close to 1%, and that the 6.9% figure represents increase in debt, rather than increase in growth. This is a subtle distinction that may be beyond the understanding of a politician like Xi Jinping.
Xi's speeches have been promising aggressive development of China's "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI). In this vision, China will be building towns, cities, buildings, roads and other infrastructure throughout Asia, and continuing all the way to Europe. In the oceans, China will be making new alliances and numerous ports for Chinese ships, putting China at the center of a new world order.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Moody's and S&P have all expressed alarm at China's ballooning debt, and are predicting a major correction. This is consistent with the Generational Dynamics prediction of a global financial panic and crisis.
As for the Belt and Road Initiative, the situation in Sri Lanka, where China financed building of a seaport then ended up controlling it because Sri Lanka can't make the payments, has raised a lot of suspicions that China is setting a debt trap for other nations as well. Projects in Pakistan and Nepal have been put on hold for this reason, putting the whole BRI concept into question. Xinhua and India.com and Forbes and Fortune (7-Dec) and Politico (EU)
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North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un also gave a New Year's speech in which he bragged that he's already safe from attack by the United States, and that he's building an arsenal of nuclear missiles with which to attack the United states:
"The U.S. should know that the button for nuclear weapons is on my table. The entire area of the U.S. mainland is within our nuclear strike range. ... The United States can never start a war against me and our country. ...We must mass-produce nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles and speed up their deployment."
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Well, it's the beginning of the New Year.
There were 365 days in 2017, and I posted 365 Generational Dynamics World View articles. I didn't miss a single day. A perfect record. That just proves what an obsessive mind is capable of.
When I started writing daily articles in January 2010, I wrote "Dear Reader, I'm going to try this for a while and see if it works for me. Ideally I'll produce a news summary every day, but that's probably unrealistic. I'll try to do it as often as possible." Much to my own amazement, I'm still doing it every day eight years later.
I started the Generational Dynamics web site in 2003. Since then, I've written almost 6,000 articles containing thousands of Generational Dynamics predictions and analyses, all of which have come true or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. No web site, analyst, journalist, or politician has come even close to the analytical and forecasting success of GenerationalDynamics.com. Generational theory is truly amazing, and a truly historic development.
Now it's 2018, and we're looking forward to an extremely dangerous year, with crises in North Korea, China, the South China Sea, the Mideast, Crimea, Africa, and elsewhere. Any one of these crises could spiral into something bigger. As we've reported recently, even Chinese officials are saying that they expect a war over North Korea in the next few months.
If you want to forget about what's going on in the world, then just focus on the politics of the Russia dossier or the latest sexual harassment accusation. But if you do want to know what's going on in the world, then the #1 most accurate source in the world is the daily Generational Dynamics World View articles. You can read them every day on http://GenerationalDynamics.com and on the excellent Breitbart National Security web site, or you can subscribe, and receive them for free every day in your inbox.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jan-18 World View -- Xi Jinping says that China will now have a 'say' on all international issues thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Jan-2018)
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