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Report: North Korea is selling chemical weapons supplies to Syria
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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We keep seeing the same horrible script played out over and over. What we've seen in the last few days is similar to what we've seen probably a dozen or so times in the UN Security Council in the last few years:
With regard to the last point, I've heard several interviews with civilians in Ghouta about whether they were going to take advantage of the opportunity to leave Ghouta. They all said pretty much the same thing, that they don't feel safe trying to do so.
This is not surprising, since they're all pretty much aware of what happened in late 2016 in Aleppo, and two of them actually mentioned that. Allowing civilians to leave is part of the Syrian-Russian strategy. Civilians were allowed to leave Aleppo, and travel to Idlib, where they were killed en masse by Syrian and Russian airstrikes.
In fact, I've described this strategy several times before. It's called the "Grozny model," named after the capital city of Chechnya and the battle of Grozny. The Russians created a "safe zone" to allow civilians to escape the Grozny siege, and then killed them as they were escaping.
So in the end, this "ceasefire" in east Ghouta is not a ceasefire at all, and was never intended by the Russians to be a ceasefire. Instead, it provides political cover for an intensification of the war crimes against civilians. There are 400,000 people living in Ghouta, mostly women and children. There are at most 1,000 fighters who might be called "jihadists and terrorists." Russia and Syria are going to use the 1,000 fighters as a reason to kill as many of the 400,000 civilians as they can.
An analogy in America would be if an American city contained some people from the Black Panthers or Black Lives Matter, then it would be OK, using the Syrian-Russian strategy, for the army and air force to exterminate hundreds of thousands of people in the black neighborhoods in that city, or maybe to permit some of them to escape, and then slaughter them as they leave.
In my lifetime, I've heard the words "Never again!" applied to the Nazi Holocaust. And I've heard the words "Never again!" applied to the Srebrenica genocide. And I've heard the words "Never again!" applied to the Rwanda genocide. But now it's happening again, just like it's happened before, but instead of stopping the genocide, the United States has become a tool to support the genocide, by having diplomats run around the Security Council and pass farcical ceasefire resolutions that provide cover for the genocide. It's truly astonishing. Sky News and NBC News and Reuters
According to an unreleased United Nations report, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is receiving supplies from North Korea for supplies to be used to manufacture chemical weapons. These supplies include acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers.
We can assume that North Korea is selling this technology to Syria to make money and get around UN sanctions. We can also assume that either Iran or Russia is providing the money to Bashar al-Assad. Who knows? Maybe it's some of the money that Iran has gained from the removal of sanctions after signing the nuclear deal.
At any rate, we can be pretty certain that if the North Korea is able to complete its development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, then it will sell that technology to any rogue state willing to pay for it. CNN and Axios
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I wanted to reference this map because it's one of the best that I've seen, and easiest to understand what's going on.
There are several things that one can see from the map:
As I've described before, there at least 14 armies and militias operating in Syria now: Syria, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Free Syrian Army (FSA), Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), People’s Protection Units (YPG), Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel, United States, al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
This is a country in complete chaos, with a war criminal and sociopathic genocidal leader, Bashar al-Assad, and with a proxy war that's nowhere near ending.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Deutsche Welle
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Feb-18 World View -- Russia's 'humanitarian pause' in Syria turns into farce on first day thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Feb-2018)
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From missile strikes and bombings to cholera, war-torn Yemen deteriorates
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Saudi Arabia officials say that the war in Yemen is proceeding successfully. But few people believe that. When the war began in March 2015, the Saudis thought that they'd win quickly. The Iran-backed Houthis, which represent about 15% of Yemen's population, with a stronghold in northwest Yemen, had invaded and taken control of Yemen's capital city Sanaa in late 2014, and drove out the Saudi-supported ethnic Sunni government.
So the Saudis formed a coalition with United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, and began airstrikes in March 2015, believing that this would force the Houthis to the negotiating table, where they'd sue for peace.
It hasn't worked out that way, as the Houthis proved extremely resilient and even gained additional territory.
What the airstrikes HAVE accomplished is to turn Yemen into a humanitarian disaster. Yemen relies heavily on food imports and is on the brink of famine. In order to prevent import of Iranian weapons to the Houthis, the Saudis have blockaded the ports, but this has also made it impossible to import food, medicines and other humanitarian aid. Yemen was already one of the poorest countries in the world, but the blockade made things much worse. The result is that, of Yemen's 25 million population, more than 22 million are desperately need of food and humanitarian assistance, including 11.3 million in acute need.
The country is also facing a cholera epidemic, which has already killed thousands of people. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of cholera infections had been in decline in Yemen over the past 20 weeks after it hit the 1 million mark of suspected cases. But now that's going to change again, because Yemen is entering a new phase of rainy seasons. The country had also had an outbreak of diphtheria, a disease that usually affects children, and can be prevented with vaccines.
In addition to famine and disease, Yemen is also targeted by a resilient so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). On Saturday, two car bomb explosions killed at least six people and wounded 43 others in the southern port city of Aden, which is the stronghold of what's left of the Sunni government. ISIS claimed credit for the bombings.
On the other hand, a high-level Saudi researcher says:
"I find the English proverb “slow and steady” the best way to describe the decisive course the war in Yemen is taking, with the crisis coming to an end along with the restoration of hope.A continuous collapse of the Iran-backed Houthi militia is obvious from the outcome of battles, with the advance of the national armies supported by the coalition forces that uphold legitimacy."
That would have to be considered the optimistic Saudi view of the war, but this is not widely believed. Reuters and Bloomberg and Al Arabiya (Riyadh)
In a series of late-night royal decrees, Saudi Arabia's King Salman sacked the country's top military commanders and the headers of the ground forces and air defenses.
It's believed that the firings are the work of the 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as "MBS", who is also the defense minister, and who has forced rapid change in the kingdom, including the arrests of dozens of high level government officials on charges of corruption.
MBS is also believed to have been the instigator of the Yemen war. The fact that the war did not end in a quick victory, but instead appears to be an unending disaster, is being blamed on MBS himself.
Saudi Arabia announced the military firings without providing any reasons. However, it's believed that the firings are related to the lack of success in the Yemen war.
Reportedly, these firing represent a generational change in the leadership of the military, and that the older leaders were fired and are being replaced by other military figures who are younger and who are thought to be loyal to MBS. Saudi Press Agency and BBC and Reuters and Bloomberg
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Feb-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia sacks its top tier of military commanders as Yemen war drags on thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Feb-2018)
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New Zealand investigates attacks on author of report on China's
infiltration into New Zealand
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A new book detailing China's infiltration into Australia's government and institutions is finally being published on Monday, after publication was repeatedly blocked because of intense pressure by China's government on publishers.
The book, titled "Silent Invasion: How China Is Turning Australia into a Puppet State," was written by Clive Hamilton, a left of center professor of public ethics at Charles Sturt University. It was supposed to be published in November by Australian publisher Allen & Unwin, which had published 8 previous books by Hamilton.
However, the publisher's chief executive, Robert Gorman, cancelled plans at the last minute to publish to book. He wrote an e-mail message to Hamilton saying:
"We have no doubt that Silent Invasion is an extremely significant book. [But we are concerned about] potential threats to the book and the company from possible action by Beijing. ... The most serious of these threats was the very high chance of a vexatious defamation action against Allen & Unwin, and possibly against you personally as well."
The publisher had told Hamilton that he would have to heavily edit the book and remove large portions of the text to get it published. According to Hamilton:
"Last week Allen & Unwin did express some legal concerns but despite that I thought they were resolved to publish it, so it was a complete shock.The Chinese government’s campaign is far more extensive than ever previously understood. If you’re going to analyze how Beijing is influencing Australian society and politics you have to analyze that activity of individuals and name names, and that’s what I’ve done. It’s a factual book with 1,100 footnotes and it has been meticulously researched, but short of redacting 100 names from the book there’s always the possibility someone might launch a vexatious legal act against the publisher, in this case Allen & Unwin."
In January of this year another publisher, Melbourne University Press became the second leading publisher to cancel plans to publish the book. Reportedly, a university official was concerned about Beijing’s ability to dissuade students from attending the university if MUP published the book.
In one of the online articles about this story, a commenter wrote that he could walk into any bookstore or library in Australia and find a dozen books that accused the CIA of controlling Australia's government and institutions, and no one would care. However, just one book about China is causing a furious, threatening response from China.
There are very real concerns about publishing material not approved by the Chinese Communist Party. Within China itself, every publication is closely censored, and writing or even reading any unapproved publication can land a person in jail subject to severe and repeated torture.
China's censorial reach extends past the mainland. In 2015, five Hong Kong booksellers whose shops contain books critical of Xi and the CCP were abducted and thrown into jail in Beijing. Four were eventually released – three "confessed" and have remained mute, while one spoke of his torture. The fifth is still imprisoned.
Foreign citizens are not immune. In January, Swedish citizen Gui Minhai, a Hong Kong book publisher, was arrested in China while accompanied by Swedish diplomats. Sweden's foreign minister Margot Wallstrom said the "brutal intervention" against Swedish consular support for Gui took place despite Chinese promises. But this is an ordinary example of how the Chinese cannot be trusted about anything. Guardian (London, 13-Nov-2017) and West Australia Today (28-Nov-2017) and South China Morning Post (6-Feb) and New Matilda (7-Feb)
Two weeks ago I wrote about how University of Canterbury professor Anne-Marie Brady in New Zealand had been threatened and robbed after writing a report on China's infiltration into New Zealand's government.
Brady's home was broken into and three laptops, two cellphones and an encrypted memory stick were taken. She received a threatening letter, two months after her university office was robbed.
Brady's report and complaints about threats had been met with skepticism by the government, but finally prime minister Jacinda Ardern has ordered an investigation into the break-in.
In that article, I quoted extensively from Brady's report, entitled "Magic Weapons: China's political influence activities under Xi Jinping" to show in detail how the infiltration and propaganda works in New Zealand. Much of what I quoted applies equally to Australia.
As Brady's report explains, China's president Xi Jinping once used the term "magic weapon" to refer to China's United Front Work Department. Officially it focuses on building support for the Communist Party in China, but it's become a coercive propaganda tool targeting Chinese globally, especially in Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., and Canada, but in other countries as well. The agency particularly surveils and targets Chinese students abroad and foreign universities to adopt language that favors pro-Beijing policies, such as delegitimizing Taiwan, and Western ideals and values, such as liberal democracy, Christianity, or Falun Gong.
The United Front Work Department, Xi Jinping's "Magic Weapon," is as dangerous to Australia as it is to New Zealand. Stuff (New Zealand)
By early February, the inability of Clive Hamilton to get his book published because of legal threats from China was causing some alarm to members of the Australian parliament's national security committee, and they actually considered having the parliament serve as publisher of the manuscript. That would have protected Hamilton from being sued, but questions were also raised about the appropriateness of giving a special privilege to a particular author.
Finally, the book was recently acquired by Hardie Grant, run by Sandy Grant, who in the 1980s published the controversial memoir of former British intelligence officer Peter Wright. The publication occurred against the wishes of the British government, which was trying to censor the book.
Clive Hamilton says that he became interested in this subject in 2008. He was at Parliament House in Canberra when the Beijing Olympic torch relay passed through. He watched in bewilderment as a small pro-Tibet protest was overrun by thousands of angry Chinese students. They came out of nowhere and seemed to shut down the pro-Tibet protests, and the authorities did nothing about it. What was going on?
In 2016 it was revealed that wealthy Chinese businessmen linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had become the largest donors to both major political parties. Hamilton realized something big was happening, and decided to investigate the Chinese government's influence in Australia. His research revealed evidence of CCP influence and infiltration in politics, culture, real estate, agriculture, universities, unions, and even primary schools.
According to the book, China's influence peddling is caused, in part, by a recent wave of Chinese migration to Australia including "billionaires with shady histories and tight links to the [Chinese Communist] party, media owners creating Beijing mouthpieces, 'patriotic' students brainwashed from birth, and professionals marshalled into pro-Beijing associations set up by the Chinese embassy."
The book lists more than 40 former and sitting Australian politicians allegedly doing the work of China's totalitarian Government, if sometimes unwittingly. Many are household names. According to the book, "[Former prime ministers Bob] Hawke and [Paul] Keating, when their political careers ended they went on to become reliable friends of China, shuttling between the two countries, mixing with the top cadres and tycoons. While Hawke's China links proved lucrative, Keating was more interested in influence." Sydney Morning Herald (5-Feb) and Boffins Books and Australian Broadcasting
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Feb-18 World View -- New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Feb-2018)
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As North Korea's 'charm offensive' fades, decision time
for military action approaches
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There's a growing feeling that the "crunch time" with North Korea is close. Already, as we reported two days ago, the North is sending its most notorious military general to lead the North Korean delegation in the Winter Olympics in Seoul on Sunday. Kim Yong-chol is the North Korean general who masterminded the devastating attacks on South Korean targets in 2010, and the North is insulting the South by sending him to the closing ceremony, and is signaling that its "charm offensive" has ended.
Because of the North's charm offensive, South Korea and the US agreed to postponed their planned joint military drills until March 18, when the Olympics and Paralympics games finally end. It's believed that South Korea and the US have agreed on a date around April 1 to restart them, and that will infuriate the North Koreans.
As we've also reported, North Korea has resumed development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, even as the "charm offensive" was in progress.
We've known for a long time that at some point, the US is going to face a stark choice: Either accept a nuclear North Korea with an arsenal of nuclear-tipped missiles pointed at the United States, and accept that this nuclear missile technology will be sold to any nation or terrorist group willing to pay cash, or take military action, a "bloody nose attack" on North Korea that will disable their nuclear missile development, at least for a while.
We've known this for some time, and now we've almost completely run out of time. One choice or the other will have to be made soon. And obviously there's only one choice. Numerous administration officials have made it clear that North Korea will not be permitted to have a nuclear weapon and ballistic missile system that can reach the United States. Newsweek and Fox News
The Trump administration's announcement on Friday of new sanctions has the feel of desperation, and last desperate attempt to avoid having to make the stark choice just described. Furthermore, president Donald Trump warned of an unnamed "phase two," presumably a military action, that could be "very, very unfortunate for the world" if the sanctions did not work.
The new sanctions don't directly target North Korea. Instead, they target shipping, trading companies and vessels that from other countries that have been used to allow the North Koreans to cheat on the existing sanctions.
A particular practice that the sanctions target is ship-to-ship transfers. A ship carrying goods that are bound for North Korea does not actually dock in North Korea. Instead, the ship has a rendezvous with a North Korean ship in the middle of the sea, and the goods are transferred from the first ship to the North Korean ship. At the same time, goods from the North Korean can be transferred to the other ship for illegal export.
At a briefing, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stood next to enlarged photos from December 2017 that he said revealed ship-to-ship transfers of fuel and other products destined for North Korea in an attempt to evade sanctions. The picture at the beginning of this article depicts such a December 9 rendezvous between a North Korean vessel and the Panama-flagged KOTI, for an illegal ship-to-ship transfer.
The sanctions are aimed at ships located, registered or flagged in numerous countries, including China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Marshall Islands, Tanzania, Panama and the Comoros.
Examples of international shipping companies that are sanctioned include the following:
Mnuchin said he could not rule out the prospect of the United States boarding and inspecting North Korean ships.
The announcement stops short of a full blockade of North Korea, as that could be considered an act of war. Reuters and Dept. of Treasury
China angrily denounced the latest American sanctions on North Korea. It was China's latest in a series of denunciations of any sanctions against North Korea not imposed within the framework of the United Nations. As I explained recently, Russia and China have adopted a policy of using the UN Security Council to control US foreign policy by demanding that any action be approved by the UNSC where they have a veto. However, Russia and China feel free to take any illegal action they wish without asking for UNSC approval. So this is another example of that policy.
China's Foreign Ministry issued this statement on Saturday:
"The Chinese government has been comprehensively and strictly implementing the Security Council resolutions on the DPRK and fulfilling its international obligations, and never allows any Chinese citizen or company to engage in activities in violation of the Security Council resolutions. If any breach of the Security Council resolutions and Chinese laws and regulations is found out through investigation, the Chinese side will seriously deal with it in accordance with laws and regulations.The Chinese side firmly opposes the US imposing unilateral sanctions and "long-arm jurisdiction" on Chinese entities or individuals in accordance with its domestic laws. We have lodged stern representations with the US side over this, urging it to immediately stop such wrongdoings so as not to undermine bilateral cooperation on the relevant area."
Reports indicate that South Korea, Singapore, Japan and other Asian countries are endorsing the US-imposed sanctions, and are willing to cooperate in enforcing them. China evidently is not.
Mnuchin said he could not rule out the prospect of the United States boarding and inspecting North Korean ships, but this presumably does not apply to China's ships. However, there are Chinese companies targeted in the sanctions, and they will be prohibited from financial transactions in US banks and elsewhere. This is one more potential flash point and the growing North Korea crisis, which may be close to the day of its dénouement. Foreign Ministry of China and VOA and Reuters
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Feb-18 World View -- China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Feb-2018)
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Already furious Palestinians condemn embassy move on
'Naqba Day' -- 'Catastrophe Day'
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The US State Dept. announced on Friday that the US will move its official embassy in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv on May 14, commemorating the 70th anniversary of the founding of Israel. The move had not been expected until the end of 2019, so this announcement caught many Israelis and Palestinians by surprise.
Plans for a new US embassy building in Jerusalem are still a long way off, so the May 14 move will be little more than symbolic. the U.S. ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, along with a small staff, will move on May 14 into an office building in Jerusalem housing the current Consulate General in Jerusalem, making that building the new interim embassy. The current embassy building in Tel Aviv will be renamed the US Consulate, and will continue to house the bulk of the U.S. diplomatic staff in Israel.
At the same time, a search will begin for the site of a new US embassy building in Jerusalem. This search will be fraught with problems, according to the opinion of an Israeli analyst forwarded to me by a reader. The problems include the following:
A big problem facing a new embassy building in Jerusalem is the cost, expected to be into the hundreds of millions of dollars.
The State Department attorneys are looking into the legality of accepting private donations to help pay for the construction of the new embassy. The question is being discussed because Sheldon Adelson, a pro-Israeli billionaire who has contributed tens of millions of dollars to the Republican Party, has offered to pay for some or all of the embassy costs.
Whether it's legal to allow one private individual to pay for the building costs of an official government building is currently being discussed, as it would be a significant departure from historical practice. In one possible scenario, the administration would solicit contributions not only from Adelson but potentially from other donors in the evangelical Christian and American Jewish communities, too.
Allowing Adelson to contribute would also raise national and international political issues in a situation where just the decision to move the embassy has already proved highly controversial. It could also raise new, unexpected issues. For example, would Adelson's name be on the building? AP and VOX
Donald Trump's December announcement that the embassy would move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, seeming to preclude having East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state, has infuriated Palestinian leaders, who said that the announcement proves that the US under Donald Trump is not an honest mediator, but is clearly biased in Israel's favor.
Saeb Erekat, the former Palestinian chief peace negotiator said last month:
"Jerusalem is not off the negotiations table, rather the U.S. is outside the international consensus.Those who say that Jerusalem is off the table are saying that peace is off the table. The holy city is in the hearts of each and every Palestinian, Arab, Christian and Muslim, and there will be no peace without East Jerusalem being the sovereign capital of the State of Palestine.
Trump could buy many things with his money, but he won’t be able to buy the dignity of our nation."
With Friday's announcement moving up the date to May 14, an advisor to Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas said:
"We know the Americans are coordinating every step with (Israeli President Benjamin) Netanyahu, but they do not do the same with President Abbas. In the end this is not good for peace, and no good for themselves, their own standing.What we want is a clear statement that will allow the Palestinians to have a state of their own, independent, within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital."
What is particularly infuriating to Palestinians is that May 14 is "Naqba Day" -- the "Day of Catastrophe" -- the day that the Palestinians commemorate every year for the founding of Israel.
Saeb Erekat said that the move is a violation of international law:
"The American administration's decisions to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and choose the Palestinian people's Naqba as the date for this step is a blatant violation of international law. [The result will be] the destruction of the two-state option, as well as a blatant provocation to all Arabs and Muslims."
May 14, the Day of Catastrophe (Naqba) is an extremely bitter day among Palestinians, not only because it was the day of Israel's independence, but because the "catastrophe" refers to the Arabs' catastrophic loss to the Jews in the Arab-Israeli War of 1948, a loss that many Arabs blame on themselves.
According to Palestinian narratives, between 1947-49, Israelis ethnically cleansed and destroyed about 530 Palestinian villages and cities, and killed about 15,000 Palestinians in a series of mass atrocities, leaving 750,000 Palestinians from a 1.9 million population without a home.
Israelis respond that the clashes were launched by Arab Liberation Army volunteers who attacked Jewish cities, settlements and armed forces, followed by an invasion by Arab armies from Lebanon, Transjordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
However much Arabs are angry at Israelis for winning the war, many Arabs are even more angry at Arab leaders of the time for losing the war. Arab armies that attacked Israel expected an easy victory within a day or two over a tiny, fledgling country that was not perceived as a serious threat. They vastly underestimated the abilities of the Jewish militias in Palestine, who were well-prepared and well-organized and had many experienced fighters who had served in units of the British Army during World War II.
But the strongest Arab condemnations of all are that the Arab armies fought among themselves almost as much as they fought against the Jews. While Arab leaders claimed to be fighting for Palestine, they were actually fighting each other in a war of individual interests and conflicting goals. The rivalries between the Arab militias and armies contrasted with the much more unified Israeli militias and armies.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the most important factor to understand is that the 1948 war was a generational crisis war for the Jews, but was an Awakening era war for the Arabs. World War II was not a crisis war for the Arabs. In the Crisis era mood, the Jews were extremely unified and nationalistic.
But the Arabs' previous generational crisis war was World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Just as the United States fought the Vietnam War half-heartedly during its Awakening era in the 1960s, the Arabs fought the 1948 Arab-Israeli war half-heartedly in its Awakening era. This generational timeline difference in public mood appears to have been the major factor in the Israelis' victory over the Arabs. Haaretz (25-Jan) and USA Today and Al-Jazeera and AFP and Al-Jazeera (13-Jul-2009)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Feb-18 World View -- US embassy to Jerusalem will commemorate Israel's founding -- Palestinian 'Naqba Day' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Feb-2018)
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North Korea insults South Korea with selection of Kim Yong-chol
head of Olympics closing ceremony
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Western leaders are expressing horror at the siege of Eastern Ghouta in Syria, which is amounting to mass extermination of innocent civilians, potentially including tens of thousands of innocent women and children. The siege and the mass extermination are being led by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and backed by Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei. All three of these people -- al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei -- are massively committing war crimes and crimes against humanity, and all three should be condemned as the worst kinds of war criminals, the worst war criminals so far this century.
Hundreds of people have been killed just since Sunday from missiles, shell fire, and barrel bombs packed with explosives and metal and laced with chlorine gas. The war criminals are particularly targeting bakeries, so people will starve, and hospitals, so the wounded can't be treated, as well as food and aid convoys. Bashar al-Assad, who considers the 400,000 residents of Eastern to be cockroaches to be exterminated, wants to make sure that the baby cockroaches, in his view, won't grow up to be adult cockroaches.
The siege is a repeat of the similar attack on East Aleppo at the end of 2016. There were 275,000 people in Aleppo, and it took al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei six months to destroy the city enough to "take control." By the end, the city was almost completely deserted, since thousands of people had been able to escape from the city and flee to the countryside.
In East Ghouta, there are 400,000 people and, unlike in Aleppo, there is no escape. All 400,000 people are trapped in Ghouta, waiting to be exterminated.
According to reports, Syrian army forces are massing, and could enter Ghouta for the final slaughter at any time.
The justification used by al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei is that among the 400,000 civilians there are some jihadists. An analogy in America would be if an American city contained some people from the Black Panthers or Black Lives Matter, then it would be OK with al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei for the army and air force to exterminate all the people in the black neighborhoods in that city. United Nations and AP and BBC and Middle East Eye
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Sweden and Kuwait presented a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council for a 30-day ceasefire in Eastern Ghouta, during which food and humanitarian aid could be delivered to the residents.
This of course is completely laughable, since al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei are interesting in exterminating people, not a ceasefire. Ironically, Eastern Ghouta is already a ceasefire zone, having been designated by Russia as one of the four "de-confliction zones," based on the agreements signed with Turkey and Iran in Astana, Kazakhstan. Putin said that it would be a ceasefire zone, but as with everything that Putin says, it was a lie designed to cover up future extermination plans. This lying as a cover up has been used repeatedly by Putin in Syria, Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia, and elsewhere.
Needless to say, Russia has done everything possible to sabotage the draft resolution by offering numerous amendments to do things like exempt jihadists and terrorist. However, since al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei consider everyone in Ghouta, including innocent women and children, to be "terrorists," these amendments make the resolution meaningless. If there's ever a vote on a meaningful resolution, then Russia will veto it.
It never ceases to amaze me how the original principles of the United Nations have been turned on their head, and the UN is now used as a cover and a tool to support war crimes and genocide rather than prevent them.
As I wrote in 2011, Russia adopted a specific policy of using the UN Security Council as a tool to control the foreign policy of the United States, Europe and NATO, while leaving itself free to pursue any policy it wanted. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics")
The way it works is that Russia demands that all actions taken by Nato be approved by the U.N. Security Council, where Russia has a veto, giving Russian an effective veto over all Nato operations. The Russians then can invade Ukraine, invade and annex Crimea, and commit war crimes in Syria with complete freedom and impunity, because of the double standard -- they never ask approval of the UNSC, while they insist that NATO do nothing without getting UNSC approval.
Russia has worked with China to carry this policy even further. Russia and China have been invaded and annexed other countries' regions, just as Hitler did. This is something that the United Nations was formed specifically to prevent. But all the UN can do now is whatever Russia and China force it to do, using vetoes and ignoring international law. Incredibly, China is building massive military bases in the South China Sea, and completely ignoring United Nations court decisions that declare them illegal. And yet they insist that the United States and all other countries be completely restricted by UN laws.
It's absolutely incredible how Russia and China have now only completely crippled the United Nations, but actually done worse -- they're using the United Nations as a tool to subvert and enable the crimes that the UN was formed to prevent. It's a truly remarkable historic event, and it shows again how the world is headed for World War III.
After World War II, historians analyzed the failure of the League of Nations, and in the end blamed it on the United States for not joining. So the US joined the League of Nations' successor, the United Nations, and even agreed to host it in New York. But now, 71 years later, the United Nations is failing for the same kinds of reasons that the League of Nations failed. In a generational Crisis era, there is no will to enforce the principles for which the organization was formed, and essentially the organization is taken over by criminals. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Middle East Eye and United Nations and BBC and Reuters and AFP
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North Korea is insulting and provoking the South Koreans by saying that it has selected Kim Yong-chol to head the North Korean high-level delegation to the closing ceremony of the Olympics games on Sunday.
Kim Yong-chol is the vice chairman of the Workers Party Central Committee, and is the mastermind of two major attacks on South Korean targets. In May 2010, North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan, killing 46 of South Korean crew members, and in November 2010, North Korea killed South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island.
Incredibly, Kim Yong-chol is the man that the North will send to lead the festivities on Sunday, and South Korea's president Moon Jae-in is expected to roll out the red carpet for him. Kim Yong-chol has been blacklisted and sanctioned by both South Korea and the US, and he is currently in charge of North Korea's department in charge of the regime's agitation against South Korea.
The families of the victims of the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong attacks are furious at what's happening. It appears that North Korea's latest charm offensive is suddenly over. Chosun Ilbo (Seoul)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Feb-18 World View -- Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Feb-2018)
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Thousands of children work as cobalt miners in DR Congo
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced last month that it would be increase the royalty on cobalt exports from to 10% from 2%. The new taxes would be paid by international mining firms operating in DRC, including African miner Randgold Resources, China Molybdenum Company Limited, Swiss firm Glencore plc, and MMG Ltd, an Australian-Chinese venture.
However, these four multinational firms will be challenging the royalty increases in court, based on a contractual relationship with DRC that locks in the 2% rate, and can only be changed with ten years notice.
DRC is the world's largest producer of cobalt, providing 58% of global production. Other countries produce far less, including, in decreasing order, Russia (5%), Australia, Canada, Cuba, Philippines (3.6%), Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Zambia and New Caledonia (2.5%).
Demand for cobalt has been surging, because it's an essential ingredient of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries used in iPhones and other devices. And a big additional surge is expected in the next three years, to provide for rechargeable batteries in electric cars. A typical smartphone uses about 8 grams of refined cobalt, while the battery for an electric car requires over 1,000 times more. The result is that cobalt prices more than doubled in 2017.
In order to protect its supply of cobalt, Apple Inc. is in talks to buy long-term supplies of cobalt directly from miners, such as Glencore. Until now, Apple has left the business of buying cobalt to the companies that make the batteries. Apple is seeking contracts to secure several thousand metric tons of cobalt a year for five years or longer.
However, other companies are believed also to be trying to lock up cobalt supplies. Thus, Apple will be in competition with companies like BMW AG, Volkswagen AG and Samsung SDI Co. AFP and Investing News and Bloomberg
It seems that there's no end to the list of horrific stories about Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In the past, I've written about the bloody wars in the southwestern Kasai region, where the armies and militias reporting to the government of president Joseph Kabila are committing genocide; about the bloody tribal wars in northeastern Kivu region, causing massive refugee flows into Uganda; about the massive corruption of Joseph Kabila, skimming billions of dollars out of the treasury and providing it to his family and cronies; and of his repeated stunts of refusing to hold elections, so that he can't be replaced as president.
Now there's a new horrific story. In southeastern DRC in Tanganyika province, there's a growing "humanitarian disaster of extraordinary proportions," according to the UN. There have been bloody clashes between militias of two ethnic groups -- the Luba, a Bantu ethnic group, and the Twa, a Pygmy ethnic group. The violence has been going on for four years, and surged in mid-2016, with killings, abductions and rapes. Since January of this year, most of the violence has been perpetrated Kabila's Congolese armed forces at road blocks.
Tanganyika province is three times the size of Switzerland with a population of about 3 million, of whom 630,000 have been displaced by the fighting, a number that has almost doubled in a year.
A report by the International Rescue Committee describes the situation in detail, and provides the following historical context:
"The conflict in Tanganyika is rooted in the long-standing marginalization of all the indigenous ethnic groups commonly referred to as Pygmies in central Africa, of which the Twa form one of the main groups. The Pygmies were the first inhabitants of the DRC, living as nomadic hunter-gatherers at the fringes of forest-savanna areas. However, Bantu tribes, primarily relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, started migrating into the Congo River Basin at the beginning of the first millennium, progressively displacing Pygmies toward ever more remote forest areas. Over time, the Bantu exerted their control over land and established hereditary, hierarchized and interrelated tribal power structures that excluded Pygmies.19 These tribal or customary power structures still underlie to this day the configuration of local governments in DRC, especially at the village and cluster levels, along with chiefdoms. This also explains in good part the absence of the Twa from positions of power in Tanganyika.During colonial times and since independence, the cutting of forests for logging, agriculture, cattle herding, and mining, combined with the creation of national parks, gradually pushed the Pygmies out of forests. This resulted in an accelerating trend toward sedentary life for those populations. Sedentarization, accompanied by a significant reduction in access to forest resources, and limited access to land, has resulted in systematically higher poverty for Pygmy populations relative to the Bantu majority. Unsurprisingly, this led the author of a World Bank report to summarize their situation in this manner: “Pygmies in DRC can best be described as poor, vulnerable and marginalized.” This higher poverty and vulnerability also characterize the situation of the Twa in Tanganyika.
In Tanganyika, the majority of the Twa population is sedentary or semi-sedentary. They are typically settled near roads and Bantu villages, where they can work as agricultural day laborers and maintain some access to forest resources. While some Twas have fields and practice agriculture, land rights in DRC remain rooted in the customary practices of Bantu chiefs. As a result, the Twa have limited access to land that is contingent on Bantu customary village chiefs allocating land in exchange for a customary tax (typically a variable share of the annual crop). Bantu customary chiefs also collect similar taxes for hunting, fishing or artisanal mining activities."
The phrase "pushed out" can be assumed to be a euphemism for dozens of bloody generational crisis wars, that have been going on for almost 2,000 years, according to the report. Pygmy groups such as the Twa are at an enormous disadvantage in these wars because they're shorter than their Bantu enemies. It appears that a generational crisis war is going on at the current time, but that can't be confirmed without a great deal of additional historical research.
It seems likely that what's tying the situation in Tanganyika together with the story about cobalt is that Kabila is looking for new money with which to buy weapons to kill people, or to provide to his family and cronies. The United States has threatened to cut off aid to DRC if there are no presidential elections this year, and Kabila may be using the cobalt tax as a way of replacing the aid. Reuters and Al Jazeera and International Rescue Committee
UNICEF estimates that about 40,000 boys and girls, some as young as five years old, work as cobalt miners in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Some dig holes and go down into the pits, while others work above ground, sifting through leftover rubble and rock, searching for bits of ore which they then sort and wash. Many children become extremely ill from inhaling the dust from mining.
Most of the mined cobalt is sent to China, where it is used in the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries which are then sold to companies like Apple and Samsung. Sky News and Amnesty International (June 2016)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Feb-18 World View -- Cobalt for Apple iPhones means more money and weapons for DR Congo's corrupt leader Joseph Kabila thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Feb-2018)
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American politicians debate a 'bloody nose attack' on North Korea
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Based on analysis of commercial satellite imagery of North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facility, the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University is reporting on its 38North web site that North Korea has continued development of nuclear weapons capabilities, including "steady progress" on its Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). The ELWR development seems to be nearly complete and "nearing operational status."
It's widely believed that when North Korea launched its "charm offensive" and offered to participate in the Winter Olympics games being held in Seoul, South Korea, at the present time, the purpose was to gain time to continue development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles. In particular, the North demanded that the US and South Korea postpone the planned joint military drills that were to begin in late January.
While the continued development of ELWR could hardly be a surprise to anyone, it does serve to contradict the Pollyannaish views of some politicians that the Olympics Games détente might mean an end to the North Korea crisis.
The US and South Korea have both confirmed that they will go ahead with the postponed joint military drills. The drills will be postponed until after the end of the Paralympics games, which run from March 8 to March 18. The start date of the drills will be announced between March 18 and April 1, according to South Korea's defense minister. 38 North and Korea Herald and Yonhap (Seoul) and AFP and Fox News and Newsweek
North Korea's charm offensive and attendance at the Olympics games has postponed the crisis for a while, but the core logic driving North Korean policy has not changed:
This logic has led to discussion of a "bloody nose attack." This would be some kind of military attack that would partially destroy North Korea's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development, without attacking the Kim Jong-un regime itself.
A number of politicians have said that a bloody nose attack is impossible, because it would invite massive retaliation against South Korea's capital city Seoul.
Republican Senator James Risch said that lawmakers had been told "by administration people, about as high up as it gets, that there is no such thing as a ‘bloody nose strategy.'"
Risch added that Trump has been very clear on denying North Korea from obtaining the ability to strike the US, and that "anyone who doubts the president’s commitment to see that doesn’t happen, does so really at their own peril."
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday Risch said:
"If this thing starts, it is going to be probably one of the worst catastrophic events in the history of our civilization, but it is going to be very, very brief. The end of it is going to see mass casualties, the likes of which the planet has never seen. It would be biblical proportion."
That's very dramatic, and it may well be true, but logic points in the opposite direction. The North would just have to accept a bloody nose attack, assuming that one is even possible, because retaliation would mean the death of Kim Jong-un and his entire government.
Still, Risch's comments appear to be fundamentally self-contradictory. Risch says that Trump will prevent North Korea from being able to strike the US, as many other American politicians have also said, but Risch also says that there will be no military strike. So what's left?
New reports from unnamed intelligence source indicate that the "bloody nose attack" will be a cyber attack. A cyber assault could cripple Pyongyang's online communications and ability to control its military, causing huge disruption but avoiding the loss of life.
According to the reports, the U.S. government for the past six months has covertly begun laying the groundwork for possible cyberattacks on North Korea in countries including South Korea and Japan. This process involves installing fiber cables as bridges into the region and setting up remote bases and listening posts, where hackers may attempt to gain access to a North Korean internet that’s largely walled off from external connections.
I don't know how much of this I believe, because the North Koreans could use redundant networks and firewalls to block such attacks. In my opinion, the most likely step in the next few months will be a US conventional military attack on the North's facilities, and there will be only minor retaliation from the North, if any. I could be wrong about either of those things, of course, but that's my opinion at this time. Telegraph (London) and Foreign Policy and Reuters
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Feb-18 World View -- US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Feb-2018)
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Syria says it will send its 'popular forces' to support the YPG against Turkey in Afrin
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On January 20, Turkey began the ironically named military Operation Olive Branch to take control of Syria's northern city of Afrin from the Kurdish militias, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), though it's never entirely clear what "take control" means.
Turkey considers the YPG Kurds to be terrorists, because they're linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK has perpetrated large terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last two years, and has conducted an on-and-off separatist insurgency against Turkey's government for thirty years. The Kurds have set as a goal the creation of an independent state of Rojava along Syria's northern border with Turkey. Turkey considers that objective to be an existential threat.
When Operation Olive Branch began on January 20, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised the Turkish people that the operation would be finished within a week, and that the military operation would move east to the city of Manbij. Now it's been a month, and it doesn't appear that the operation is close to completion.
Turkish troops are backed by an estimated 22,000 "moderate rebels" in the Free Syrian Army (FSA), while the YPG is estimated to have about 8,000 to 10,000 fighters in Afrin. Estimates are the 32 Turkish soldiers, 43 FSA militants and 1,551 YPG militants have been killed so far.
So there's no question but that the YPG forces are being battered. However, Afrin is a town of 400,000 to 500,000 people.
So in my mind, I'm making comparisons to some of the previous battles. East Aleppo had a population of 275,000, only about 1,000 of whom were in the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS). The army and air force of the regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russian warplanes and Hezbollah troops, used missiles, barrel bombs laced with chlorine gas, and other weapons to "take control" of Aleppo. But it took them about six months, and they practically destroyed the entire city to do it.
In Eastern Ghouta there are 400,000 people, and al-Assad's regime, backed by the Russians, is battering the city with missiles, Sarin gas and barrel bombs laced with chlorine gas. That battle has been going on for several months, and appears nowhere near ended. It will be a long time before al-Assad "takes control" of eastern Ghouta.
So now the Turks are attacking Afrin, with 400,000-500,000 people. Russia controls the airspace above Afrin, and so the power of Turkey's warplanes is being limited, according to reports. Furthermore, as far as is known, the Turks aren't using Sarin gas and chlorine gas as Bashar al-Assad does regularly.
So I'm not a military expert, but doing these comparisons says to me that Turkey is going to be bogged down in Afrin for a long time. VOA and Washington Post and Xinhua and Kurdistan 24
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On Sunday, a senior YPG official said that the YPG had reached a deal for the Syrian army to enter Afrin and that it could be implemented within two days.
On Monday, Bashar al-Assad's Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) posted the following:
"Popular forces to arrive in Afrin within hours to support locals against Turkish aggressionSANA’s reporter in Aleppo said on Monday that popular forces are to arrive in Afrin area soon to support locals in facing the aggression launched by the Turkish regime on the area since January 20th.
The reporter said that the arrival of popular forces will strengthen the locals’ resilience and resistance against the Turkish aggression which targets infrastructure, public and private properties, and economic and services establishments."
This report has been widely referenced in the international media, usually with the interpretation that Syria's army will soon be fighting Turkey's army in Afrin.
However, what's going on is far from clear. Unlike the YPG statement, the SANA statement doesn't mention Syria's army. It mentions "popular forces" from Aleppo. This could mean Hezbollah forces or it could mean mercenary soldiers that Iran has been bringing in from Afghanistan.
According to Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu:
"It's important what the regime will do when it enters [Afrin]. If the regime plans to enter to fight PKK/YPG, then no problem. But if the regime enters to protect the YPG, then no one can stop Turkey or the Turkish forces."
There have been rumors for a few days that the al-Assad regime and the Kurds were reaching an agreement to jointly oppose the Turkish forces in Afrin. Ironically, Turkey and the al-Assad regime have a common interest -- neither of them wants the YPG to control Afrin. Turkey wants the FSA to control Afrin, and al-Assad wants his regime to control Afrin, but neither of them wants the Kurds to control Afrin.
So there's really no common interest between Syria and the YPG. The Kurds want to continue controlling Afrin, and just want Syria's help in expelling Turkey. The Syrian want to expel Turkey, but then take control of Afrin. According to one analyst:
"The Syrian regime wants complete political administration in Afrin, a comprehensive deal that includes security and politics. They want to return to Afrin. The Kurdish Rojava authorities want the Syrian army on the border [with Turkey] but they don’t accept [pro-government] forces into Afrin."
So even if a deal is reached between al-Assad and the YPG, and Syria's "popular forces" enter Afrin, then instead of the YPG and Syria fighting the Turks, it could end up with the YPG and the Turks fighting Syria. SANA (Damascus) and France 24 and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Feb-18 World View -- Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Feb-2018)
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Comparing Russian trolls to Chinese hackers
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
On Friday, the Justice Department's Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller, after a year of investigation, brought an indictment against a Russian "troll factory," the St. Petersburg based Internet Research Agency, along with various trolls and other officials connected to the agency.
It's hard to overestimate the farcical nature of the indictment. I wrote about the Internet Research Agency in 2014, and I've written about Russian trolls several times since then. Any journalist or analyst writes about a variety of political or international subjects is attacked by Russian trolls. I've been attacked by dozens, perhaps hundreds of Russian trolls since 2014.
Here are some excerpts from the indictment:
"2. Defendant INTERNET RESEARCH AGENCY LLC ("ORGANIZATION") is a Russian organization engaged in operations to interfere with elections and political processes. Defendants MIKHAIL IVANOVICI1 BYSTROV, MIKHAIL LEONIDOVICH BURCHIK ... and VLADIMIR VENKOV worked in various capacities to carry out Defendant ORGANIZATION's interference operations targeting the United States. From in or around 2014 to the present, Defendants knowingly and intentionally conspired with each other ... to defraud the United States by impairing, obstructing, and defeating the lawful functions of the government through fraud and deceit for the purpose of interfering with the U.S. political and electoral processes, including the presidential election of 2016.3. Beginning as early as 2014, Defendant ORGANIZATION began operations to interfere with the U.S. political system, including the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ... Defendants CONCORD and PRIGOZHIN spent significant funds to further the ORGANIZATION's operations and to pay the remaining Defendants, along with other uncharged ORGANIZATION employees, salaries and bonuses for their work at the ORGANIZATION.
4. Defendants, posing as U.S. persons and creating false U.S. personas, operated social media pages and groups designed to attract U.S. audiences. These groups and pages, which addressed divisive U.S. political and social issues, falsely claimed to be controlled by U.S. activists when, in fact, they were controlled by Defendants. Defendants also used the stolen identities of real U.S. persons to post on ORGANIZATION-controlled social media accounts. Over time, these social media accounts became Defendants' means to reach significant numbers of Americans for purposes of interfering with the U.S. political system, including the presidential election of 2016."
I'm sorry, I can't stop laughing. The CIA and Special Prosecutor's office has spent hundreds of millions of dollars sleuthing out these criminals, and discovered that Russian trolls hired by Russia's "troll factory," the Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg Russia, are on blogs and social media sites posting misleading comments. This was something that was well known to me and many other people.
Here's what I wrote in August 2014:
While Russia's president Vladimir Putin maintains an iron grip on the state-run media, the internet remains a big problem for Putin, as he's had little ability to control Twitter and other social media.Putin has responded to this problem in a bizarre way. According to documents examined by an analyst firm, since April a Russian firm called the Internet Research Agency, with a 2014 budget of $10 million, has been hiring hundreds of "internet trolls" to challenge any online article critical of Russia.
Each troll is expected to post comments on blogs and news sites 50 times per day. The comments range from lies and disinformation to abuse and profanity. Each blogger is to maintain six Facebook accounts, posting three times a day in each. On Twitter, they're expected to manage 10 accounts and tweet 50 times a day. [Emphasis added]"
I get attacked by American trolls as well, but apparently the reason that Russian trolls were indicted is because they didn't register with the US government. US Department of Justice and Russia Today
Let's take some example of attacks by Russian trolls, so we can see what the Special Prosecutor might be talking about. I was never attacked by trolls over the election because I never wrote about the election. However, I am always attacked by Russian trolls whenever I write about any of the following subjects:
Let's take an example: Shooting down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 passenger plane by the Russians in eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014. We actually knew within minutes that the Russians had shot it down with a missile, because Igor Strelkov, the commander of the Russian forces in east Ukraine, immediately tweeted the following:
"We shot down AN-26 [military transport] near the city Torez, Donetsk People's Republic ... We warned, don't fly in our sky."
Strelkov's militias had shot down at least two Ukrainian AN-26s in the previous week, and was bragging that he'd shot down a third. The tweet was taken down a few minutes later, when he learned that he'd shot down a passenger plane.
Russian media and trolls went into full-on troll mode, making one ridiculous claim after another: Strelkov's tweet had never occurred; the US had shot down MH17 to embarrass Russia; the airplane was struck by a meteor; no living people were aboard the plane as it flew on autopilot from Amsterdam, where it had been pre-loaded with "rotting corpses."
Russian trolls will say that no evidence exists that Russians shot down MH17. Actually, there are literally thousands of pieces of evidence, including intercepted phone calls, photos, analyzed and authenticated, videos, forensic examinations, witness statements, satellite images, and radar data. There was a major Dutch investigation that proved with no doubt that Russians shot down MH17 with a Russian-made Buk missile. But trolls will constantly say, "there's no evidence."
As another example, Russian trolls are always on the attack when you write about the use of chemical weapons, including Sarin gas and chlorine gas, by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Once again, they say that "there's no evidence." But once again, there are been several thorough investigations of al-Assad's 2013 Sarin gas attack, and there are thousands of pieces of evidence that al-Assad used Sarin gas on ordinary civilians, including forensic collections and analyses, photos, videos, eyewitness testimony, doctors' testimony, the UNSC report, analyses of the UNSC report, and so forth, proving al-Assad's repeated use of chemical weapons, including Sarin gas and chlorine gas.
Trolls try to use highly emotional arguments to avoid facts. One troll named "Jan Fearing" told me a darling story about her trip to Damascus where she met a mother who thought al-Assad was wonderful. One troll argument I hear frequently is that al-Assad is popular, but once again that's irrelevant, since all the worst genocidal monsters are popular, including Josef Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong and Pol Pot. You can't succeed as a genocidal monster if your people don't support you, and that means you have to be popular with your own people to be a genocidal monster.
I find the Russian trolls to be pretty much idiots. They're usually working from prepared scripts, and they usually don't know anything about the facts except what their trollmasters have told them.
I wasn't writing about election campaign issues, so I didn't encounter trolls bashing Hillary and boosting Bernie Sanders and Trump, but I assume that the trolls who did that were just as incompetent on those subjects as they were on the subjects that I write about. During the election campaign, there must have been millions of highly partisan messages posted by hundreds of partisan organizations. How would the average Facebook user ever be influenced by a Russian troll message when it's surrounded by hundreds of other messages competing for the user's attention? I don't see how it's even remotely possible that the Russian trolls had any effect at all on the election, or that they'll affect future elections.
In fact, when he announced the indictments, deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein said:
"There is no allegation in the indictment that any American was a knowing participant in the alleged unlawful activity. There is no allegation in the indictment that the charged conduct altered the outcome of the 2016 election."
This doesn't surprise me in the least. I don't see even the remotest possibility that these trolls influenced the election, and despite the media hysteria, I don't any possibility that they will have any influence at all in the 2018 and 2020 elections. The current hysteria is fatuous.
I personally believe that the use of trolls has backfired for the Russians, not because of the Mueller's indictment, but because everyone knows about Russian trolls, so that anyone who genuinely wants to support Russia in one of these discussions is automatically assumed to be a troll.
That's why Mueller's indictments are so farcical. They target people in Russia who will never be extradited, and they reveal "crimes" that everyone has been aware of for years.
People in the mainstream media are hoping against hope that these indictments are just the first step in bringing charges against Donald Trump. We'll all be watching to see whether they get their wishes.
Finally, let's take one more quote from the indictment:
"57. After the election of Donald Trump in or around November 2016, Defendants and their coconspirators used false U.S. personas to organize and coordinate U.S. political rallies in support of then president-elect Trump, while simultaneously using other false U.S. personas to organize and coordinate U.S. political rallies protesting the results of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. For example, in or around November 2016, Defendants and their co-conspirators organized a rally in New York through one ORGANIZATION-controlled group designed to "show your support for President-Elect Donald Trump" held on or about November 12, 2016. At the same time, Defendants and their co-conspirators, through another ORGANIZATION-controlled group, organized a rally in New York called "Trump is NOT my President" held on or about November 12, 2016. Similarly, Defendants and their co-conspirators organized a rally entitled "Charlotte Against Trump" in Charlotte, North Carolina, held on or about November 19, 2016."
So the trolls were holding pro-Trump rallies and anti-Trump rallies in two different places in New York on the same day. These are truly the gang that couldn't shoot street. We can all feel safe now that they're no longer at large. Oh, wait. All these trolls are in St. Petersburg Russia, so they're still at large, and they'll never be caught.
As a Senior Software Engineer, I'm familiar with the entire range of online attacks, whether by trolls or for espionage, or for cyber warfare. I find this hysteria over the Russian troll "threat to democracy" to be a total joke.
By contrast, the threat from China's use of online espionage a million times greater. There are dozens of Chinese high tech companies whose only job is to spy and steal secrets from the United States. China has stolen hundreds or thousands of terabytes of data from defense and law enforcement systems, as well as from energy, transportation, government, technology, health care, finance, telecommunications, media, manufacturing and agriculture systems.
There are some real threats out there, not from Russian trolls but from Chinese hackers. We should be focusing on the real dangers to our society. US Dept. of Justice and The Conversation(5-Oct-2017)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Feb-18 World View -- Special prosecutor Robert Mueller issues farcical indictment of Russian trolls thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Feb-2018)
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Comparing Iran's Chabahar seaport vs Pakistan's Gwadar seaport
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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During a visit by Iran's president Hassan Rouhani to India on Saturday, Rouhani and India's prime minister witnessed the signing of nine agreements to expand bilateral economic ties, with focus on the development and utilization of Iran's strategic Chabahar Port. Iran would grant operational control of a portion of the port to India for 18 months.
In return, India has agreed to invest an initial $87 million growing to a total of $2 billion in the Chabahar and in the Chabahar-Zahedan railroad linking the port to the Trans-Iranian railway and to other cities in Iran, connecting from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe.
The use of the Chabahar is considered to be a major "game-changer" for India's economy and defense. Any land route from India to Afghanistan and Central Asia is blocked by Pakistan and China. The route from India's Kandla seaport to Chabahar and then overland to Afghanistan and Central Asia would not be as good as a pure land route, but it's better than anything that's been available up till now.
Chabahar is also a counter to China's development of the Gwadar port in Pakistan, shown by the large purple star in the map above. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), coupled with China's One Belt-One Road (OBOR), is seen by Indian defense analysts as a major security threat. The purple lines in the map above show China's traditional trade routes across the sea, using China's "String of Pearls" port facilities (purple stars), while the red lines show the trade routes being planned using Iran's Chabahar port. Mehr News (Iran) and Business Standard (India) and VOA and India Defense Review (20-Mar-2017)
A number of analysts have been comparing the two seaports. Although the Chabahar port is considered to be of great strategic importance to India, the general consensus seems to be that Pakistan's Gwadar port will serve China's needs far better than Iran's Chabahar port will serve India's needs.
The two ports are about 90 km apart. However, unlike Chabahar, Gwadar is better strategically located in the Indian Ocean, so that India vessels would also be subject to the active monitoring by Pakistan's navy and probably China's navy.
Gwadar seaport is much larger, thanks to Gwardar's natural layout and depth. The maximum planned capacity of Chabahar is 10-12 million tons per year, while that of Gwadar will be 300-400 million tons.
Resource-rich Afghanistan is an important trading partner for both Iran and Pakistan. However, Pakistan is aligned with the Taliban, while Iran is aligned with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. This will raise security issues for Pakistan and Iran, and therefore for China and India.
Security is a major issue for both ports. Chabahar is located in one of Iran’s most volatile regions, frequently attacked by the Taliban-linked Jundullah terror group. Gwadar is located in Pakistan's Balochistan province which has also been targeted by Taliban-linked terrorists, as well as by a Baloch insurgency.
Iran has special issues related to the US and the Iran nuclear deal, which is opposed by the Donald Trump administration. The US has threatened additional sanctions on Iran, and those sanctions to conflict with India's investments in Chabahar. However, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, visiting New Delhi recently, assured India that even if America re-imposes sanctions on Iran in the coming days, it will exempt the Chabahar facility.
As regular readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. The Chabahar seaport deal moves these countries another step closer to that alignment. Asia Times and World News Report (India) and Bloomberg Quint and Diplomat and Indian Express (25-Nov-2017)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Feb-18 World View -- Iran gives operational control of its Chabahar seaport to India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Feb-2018)
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Generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests and state of emergency
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Ethiopians on Thursday were shocked and surprised when the country's prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn submitted his letter of resignation, after being in office since 2012. In a televised address he said:
"Unrest and a political crisis have led to the loss of lives and displacement of many. I see my resignation as vital in the bid to carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy."
The unrest and political crisis he's referring to is anti-government protests by millions of people, especially among the marginalized Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of Ethiopia's population, and among the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises another 27%.
Since 1991, the government has been largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrayans, who are a market and government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the population. Hailemariam Desalegn was a member of the tiny Wollayta ethnic group, party of the Tigrayan ruling coalition.
Hailemariam's resignation was apparently an attempt to calm the protests. But as it failed to do so, the Council of Ministers declared a state of emergency that "would be instrumental in thwarting ethnic-based conflicts in the country and safeguarding the constitutional order."
The details of the state of emergency were not revealed, except to say that it would be similar to the last state of emergency, which began in October 2016, and ended only a few months ago in August 2017. According to Human Rights Watch's description of the last state of emergency:
"The government’s emergency powers brought mass detentions, politically motivated criminal charges, and numerous restrictions on people’s movement and communication. While the end is welcome news, thousands remain in detention without charge, none of the protesters’ underlying grievances have been addressed, and politically motivated trials of key opposition leaders, artists, journalists, and others continue."
There are concerns that the new state of emergency will only repeat the abuses of the last one. Ethiopian News Agency and Addis Standard (Addis Ababa) and Bloomberg and Reuters and Addis Standard and Reuters
What we're seeing here is a variation of a pattern that I've described repeatedly in several countries. This pattern occurs in the aftermath of a generational crisis war when, rather than being an external war with another country, the war is a civil war within the country between tribes and ethnic groups. Such a war is generally between two tribes or ethnic groups who have been neighbors for decades, who intermarried, and whose children played together, but then suddenly they turn on each other and commit atrocities, rapes, murders, torture, mutilations and massacres on their former neighbors, including women and children.
That kind of war traumatizes the both the winners and the losers. The new country leader, usually from the winning tribe, is someone who had directed or approved these atrocities, rapes and massacres, and in his mind considers them to have been completely justified. The civil war always ends with some sort of agreement that all the warring ethnic groups will suddenly love one another live together in peace and harmony. But in practice, in the decades that follow, the losing tribe is marginalized, and in the following generational Awakening era, begins to protest. The country leader believes that a new civil war is beginning, and returns to the atrocities of the civil war in order to prevent a new war from occurring. Examples that I've reported on include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hun Sen in Cambodia.
Ethiopia's last generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the Marxist Derg dictatorship was overthrown. A Tigrayan war leader, Meles Zenawi, was in power until his death in 2012. Although the Tigrayans comprise only 6% of the population, the Tigrayan governing coalition increasingly marginalized the two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo ethnic group (34% of Ethiopia's population), and among the Amhara ethnic group (27%).
In 2012, Hailemariam Dessalegn, from a small ethnic group (Wollayta) became prime minister. It was hoped that Hailemariam would institute reforms that would improve the lives of the Oromos and the Amharas, but Hailemariam was still part of the Tigrayan governing coaliation, and followed the same policies. The reforms that had been promised were not implemented, and the situation was made worse by a severe drought.
There were massive anti-government protests by the Oromos and the Amharas, resulting in a brutal state of emergency that ran from October 2016 to August 2017. With minor changes, this is exactly the pattern that I've repeatedly described in the other countries listed above.
After the state of emergency ended in August 2017, nothing had changed. Reforms that had been promised did not occur. Once again, there were massive protests by the Oromos and Amharas. In an attempt to quall the protests last month, the government announced the release of hundreds of political prisoners from the last state of emergency, and promised further reforms.
Those measures did not reduce the protests, and Hailemariam resigned on Thursday, saying, "I see my resignation as vital in the bid to carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy." Apparently Hailemariam was no longer willing to play the role of useful idiot and serve as cover for the same Tigrayan policies that had been in place since 1991.
Now Ethiopia is at a new tipping point. A new prime minister will have to be chosen. Surprisingly, some analysts are saying that the leading candidate for prime minister is articulate, charismatic and confident 47-year-old Lemma Megersa, from the Oromo ethnic group. Once again, hopes are rising that needed reforms could finally be implemented, if an Oromo became prime minister.
Such hopes are probably misplaced. Lemma may be an Oromo, but he's also been part of the official "establishment" for his entire political career since the 1990s, and even if he's chosen as PM, it's unlikely that he'll be able to effect any real changes. Whatever generational forces have brought about the current set of policies, those generational forces will not change because of one person becoming prime minister. Addis Standard (Addis Ababa) and Africa Report and Al Jazeera and Ethiopian Treasures
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Feb-18 World View -- Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(17-Feb-2018)
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Anne-Marie Brady's report, 'Magic Weapons', documents China's
global influence strategy
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Public concerns in New Zealand about the increasing covert infiltration of pro-Chinese planted officials in the governments of New Zealand, Australia, and other countries were raised on Thursday by revelations that she and her employer have been targets of harassment, break-ins, and burglaries.
In September of last year, professor Anne-Marie Brady of New Zealand's University of Canterbury published a detailed report on China's intelligence activity to guide, buy and coerce political influence on a global basis, with emphasis on New Zealand. Brady's work was extremely effective because she is fluent in Mandarin Chinese, and she based her research on Chinese-language media both inside and outside of China.
On Thursday, Brady spoke to the Australian Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee in Canberra, and said that she had a break-in and robbery at her house. Three laptops, including one on which she wrote the paper, two cellphones and an encrypted memory stick from her last trip to China were taken, but other valuables were not taken. This followed receipt of letters threatening violence against her, and an earlier break-in and robbery of her university office.
Brady says that she links the two-breaks to work she has conducted on China's global influence campaign. New Zealand Herald and Stuff (New Zealand)
On September 13 of last year, it emerged that China-born Yang Jian, a government official and MP in New Zealand's ruling National Party had been in China's military intelligence services and had joined the Chinese Communist Party, but had not revealed these affiliations when he applied for citizenship.
Yang moved from China to New Zealand in 1991, and became an MP 12 years later. At a press conference, Last week, Yang, an MP for New Zealand’s governing National Party, confirmed he had taught English to Chinese spies in the 1980s and 1990s, and that he had been a member of the Communist Party while in China, but that he had not declared the names of the military institutions he taught at when applying for citizenship. These Chinese institutions were the People's Liberation Army-Air Force Engineering College and the Luoyang language institute, the latter run by China's equivalent of America's National Security Agency.
At the press conference, Yang said:
"I am not a spy. I refute any allegations that question my loyalty to New Zealand ... Although I was not born here I am proud to call myself a New Zealander, obey our laws and contribute to this country. I challenge those who are propagating these defamatory statements to front up and prove it."
Nonetheless, Yang remains under scrutiny by the governments of not only New Zealand but also Australia, he briefly interned with a sensitive Australian parliamentary committee before moving to New Zealand.
One question that has not been satisfactorily answered is: Why did he leave China at all to come to New Zealand in 1991.
In 1991 The China expert and author Peter Mattis says that there are two plausible explanations. 1991 was shortly after the Tiananmen Square massacre, so one scenario is that he left to escape his homeland and put his past behind him to create a new life. The other was to work covertly for military intelligence, most likely China's Second Department, dealing in human intelligence. Newsroom (New Zealand, 27-Dec-2017) and Australian Broadcasting (20-Oct-2017) and Guardian (13-Sep-2017) and South China Morning Post (13-Sep-2017)
China's president Xi Jinping once used the term "magic weapon" to refer to China's United Front Work Department. Officially it focuses on building support for the Communist Party in China, but it's become a coercive propaganda tool targeting Chinese globally, especially in Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., and Canada, but in other countries as well. The agency particularly surveils and targets Chinese students abroad and foreign universities to adopt language that favors pro-Beijing policies, such as delegitimizing Taiwan, and Western ideals and values, such as liberal democracy, Christianity, or Falun Gong.
Thanks to Chinese emigration, there are now large communities of Chinese people in Australia and New Zealand. Chinese propaganda has been so thoroughly successful that Chinese media in Australia is now almost overwhelmingly pro-Beijing, and is promoting Chinese values ("socialism with Chinese characteristics"), rather than Western values of liberal democracy and freedom. United Front Work attempts to sway elections so that pro-Beijing policies are adopted.
Anne-Marie Brady's report, entitled "Magic Weapons: China's political influence activities under Xi Jinping," describes in detail how Chinese propaganda works in New Zealand:
"There are currently around 200,000 ethnic Chinese resident in New Zealand, out of a population of 4.5 million New Zealanders. The majority of Chinese in New Zealand live in Auckland, where they make up around 10 percent of the population. Chinese consular authorities keep a close eye on all Chinese community activities, but especially in Auckland. They have achieved this through close links with core pro-Beijing Chinese community groups, and by maintaining oversight over other Chinese community groups, ethnic Chinese political figures, and Chinese language media and schools in New Zealand. Moreover, during the Xi era, the PRC embassy has supported the setting up of new organizations that report back to united front bodies in China, and, according to two former Australian-based Chinese diplomats, by placing supporters and informers in New Zealand Chinese organizations that are more independent minded and pose a potential threat to China’s interests. This is classic CCP party-building and organization work; one of the three “magic weapons” of the CCP. The current level of supervision over the ethnic Chinese community in New Zealand is a remarkable achievement. All throughout the Cold War years, with only a few exceptions, Chinese New Zealanders were neither pro-CCP nor pro-PRC, even if they were not necessarily pro-Chinese Nationalist Party or pro-ROC,76 and New Zealand’s Chinese-language media, community groups, and language schools were proudly independent. ...The organization most closely connected with the PRC authorities in New Zealand is the Peaceful Reunification of China Association of New Zealand (PRCANZ), founded in 2000. ... The name of the organization is a reference to the “Peaceful Reunification” of mainland China and Taiwan. However, the organization also engages in a range of activities which support Chinese foreign policy goals, including block-voting and fund-raising for ethnic Chinese political candidates who agree to support their organization’s agenda. When Chinese senior leaders visit New Zealand, it is united front-affiliated organizations such as PRCANZ who organize counter-protest groups to shout down pro-Falungong, pro-Tibet, or any other group critical of China who come to protest when China’s senior leaders visit New Zealand."
Brady's report also gives a detailed account of Yang Jian's activities in including New Zealand's government, as well as the activities of other China-born officials.
New Zealand's prime minister Jacinda Ardern discount's Brady's report, and says that she's seen no evidence of spying by Yang Jian or other China-born officials:
"Certainly I haven't seen evidence of that from [Brady] directly. It sounds to me like it's an insinuation that's being made.Of course, we do have close links as a country with China and as a party with China. It's another step again though to make that kind of link."
Diplomat and Washington Post and New Zealand Herald (20-Sep-2017) and South China Morning Post (23-Sep-2017)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Feb-18 World View -- Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Feb-2018)
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Eritrea's Patriarch Abune Antonios has not been seen in months
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Netherlands has expelled Tekeste Ghebremedhin Zemuy, Eritrea's top diplomat, and declared him persona non grata, because the Eritrean embassy uses coercive methods to collect a "diaspora tax" from Eritreans.
Eritrea is considered is one of the most repressive governments in the world according to Freedom House. Thousands of people are jailed without charge, where torture is common. People are required to work for years in enforced government service, where the average monthly salary is $12.
Even migrants who escape to Europe to earn money are not free of the long reach of the Eritrean government, as they are subject to the "diaspora tax" of 2% of everything they earn.
The diaspora tax has been the subject of controversy, because its application is arbitrary, and is used as a means of control over the diaspora. An Eritrean who goes to the embassy because he needs something from the state will be told that even a simple service -- sending a parcel or money home -- requires a charge of 2% of his entire income for all the years he's been in the country. In addition, Eritreans are required to sign a so-called "regret form" admitting to crimes that may or may not have been committed, and according to reports is not given a copy of the form he signed.
Refusal to pay the tax or to sign the "regret form" has resulted in refusal of all services. It has also resulted in refusing food vouchers for family members back home, limiting them from accessing remittances, besides social exclusion and vilification.
In December 2011, UN Security Council resolution 2023 called on Eritrea to "cease using extortion, threats of violence, fraud and other illicit means to collect taxes outside of Eritrea from its nationals or other individuals of Eritrean descent."
The same resolution accused Eritrea of using the tax to destabilize the Horn of Africa, saying some of the revenues were funding armed opposition groups in the region, including the Somalia's terrorist militant group al-Shabaab.
In June 2016, a UNHRC commission of inquiry report on human rights conditions in Eritrea found that the government continued to enforce indefinite military service and was responsible for arbitrary detention, torture, rape, murder, persecution, imprisonment in violation of international law, and enforced disappearances. The report said the systematic nature of these actions suggested that crimes against humanity had been committed.
A European Union organization, the Europe External Policy Advisors (EEPA), did extensive research in Eritrea's diaspora tax in seven European countries. The report, published in September of last year, said:
"The 2% Tax is collected as a critical part of a system of surveillance, with specific references to coercion in view of mental and social pressure, extortion, intimidation, fraud and/or blackmail. The specific organization and modalities relate specifically to the diaspora, but also involves family members by association."
Although these investigations have been going on for years, there was a precipitating event that finally caused the Netherlands to take some explicit action, on behalf of the 20,000 Eritrean nationals living in the Netherlands. A recording was made by Dutch radio program Argos, an asylum seeker is being told by the head of the Eritrean embassy that he has to sign a so-called ‘regret form’ in which he admits his guilt and that he has to pay 2% tax – over the past 4/5 years – before he can avail of consular service from the diplomatic mission.
This recording infuriated the Dutch parliament. Parliamentarian Sjoerd Sjoerdsma said:
"Eritreans flee Eritrea solely due to the repression by the regime. Then they are being confronted with the fact that the Eritrean embassy in the Netherlands makes them pay diaspora tax, often under force and sometimes even through extortion. The parliament has raised its voice on this issue multiple times, but nothing changes about this situation, unfortunately."
Protesters in Amsterdam and Brussels were demanding that the Eritrean embassy be closed. This was rejected, but Dutch Foreign Minister Halbe Zijlstra expelled Eritrea's envoy, saying in a letter to parliament, "In light of the continuous intimidation and force used in the collection of diaspora tax and its resulting social and political unrest, the cabinet is forced to give the Eritrean government a powerful signal." Guardian (London, 9-Jun-2015) and Europe External Policy Advisors (EEPA) and In Depth News and Freedom House and United Nations - OHCHR and Tesfa News (Eritrea)
An article that I wrote last year ( "19-Jul-17 World View -- Eritrean government laughably uses Christian Patriarch as show prop") described how Eritrean Orthodox Patriarch Abune Antonios, who had not been seen for ten years after being arrested in 2007 without charge and imprisoned in an unknown location, was trotted out to participate in a mass on July 16.
Worshippers were thrilled to see him, because he hadn't been seen in public for ten years, but the whole thing was a farce because the government forbade him from saying a word at the mass, and after the mass they bundled him back to prison at a new unknown location.
It had been hoped that after this appearance, Antonios would be permitted to walk free, but he hasn't been seen in public since then. On September 11, he should have delivered blessing on that day, which is marked by the Eritrean Orthodox Church as the start of the year according to the Julian calendar.
The patriarch is among over 10,000 prisoners of conscience in Eritrea, several hundred of whom are Christians. A surge in repression since May of last year, when Eritrean police were going from house to house, demanding to know the occupants' religious beliefs, and arresting them if they give the wrong answer. It's believed that hundreds of Orthodox Christians were arrested. Independent Catholic News (16-Sep-2017)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Feb-18 World View -- Netherlands expels Eritrean diplomat over coercive 'diaspora tax' collections thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Feb-2018)
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Parents send kids to orphanages as Venezuela's oil production collapse
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Venezuela's oil output in January fell to its lowest level in nearly 30 years, with production falling 20% from a year ago. Although Venezuela is the wealthiest country in the world in terms of oil reserves, the oil company PDVSA has been nationalized, and the Socialist president Nicolás Maduro has turned it over to the dictator's Socialist cronies, who are so corrupt and incompetent they couldn't operate a bicycle, let alone an oil company. The result is that oil production in the Socialist country has been falling steadily.
Since oil is pretty much Venezuela's only export that it can use to earn foreign currency (dollars), Venezuela can no longer import food or medicines, which is why people are starving to death and babies are dying in hospitals.
The poverty and hunger rate in the Socialist country have become so disastrous that parents are unable to find food to feed their children. Store shelves are empty of food, medicine, diapers and baby formula.
The International Monetary Fund forecast that the hyperinflation in Venezuela will hit 13,000% in 2018, meaning that even if food were available, it would be unaffordable. Human Rights Watch and other rights groups have accused Venezuela's government of beating and torturing thousands of people protesting about the economy.
Incredibly, Venezuela's Socialist government even refuses to accept offers of food and medicine from its neighbors and aid agencies, including the Catholic Church, because to do so would requiring admitting that the Socialist economy was in crisis.
In desperation, some parents are placing their children in orphanages, just so that they can be fed. According to Angélica Pérez, a 32-year-old mother of three, "You don’t know what it’s like to see your children go hungry. You have no idea. I feel like I’m responsible, like I’ve failed them. But I’ve tried everything. There is no work, and they just keep getting thinner. Tell me! What am I supposed to do?"
Other parents are simply leaving their children in the streets in the hope that child protective services will find them and find a home for them. CNN and Miami Herald and Washington Post
Colombia and Brazil on Tuesday announced a series of measures to control border crossings from Venezuela, as the Socialist economy continues to deteriorate.
With people unable to find jobs or food in Venezuela, waves of refugees have been pouring across the border into Colombia, and to a lesser extent into northwest Brazil.
Venezuela's Socialist economy began to crumble in 2013 with the collapse in global oil prices. Since then, an estimated 600,000 Venezuelans have fled across the border into Colombia. About 100,000 crossed the border in just the last two months of 2017. About 60,000 Venezuelans have crossed the border into Brazil.
Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos on Tuesday announced that strict immigration controls would be implemented, with 2,120 Colombian soldiers deployed to the 1,378 mile long border to enforce them. In a speech, Santos referred to the time when Venezuelans were kind to Colombians fleeing across the border into Venezuela during the civil war of the 1990s and early 2000s. Santos said:
"There will be more control and more security at borders.Venezuela was very generous to Colombia when Colombians went in search of a better life [during the height of its civil war in the 1990s and early 2000s]. We should also be generous to Venezuela.
I want to repeat to President Maduro — this is the result of your policies, it is not the fault of Colombians and it’s the result of your refusal to receive humanitarian aid which has been offered in every way, not just from Colombia but from the international community."
Brazil’s defense minister, Raul Jungmann, said that Brazil would bolster security along the border and relocate the migrants. "This is a humanitarian drama. The Venezuelans are being expelled from their country by hunger and the lack of jobs and medicine. We are here to bring help and to strengthen the border." Costa Roca News and Petroleum World and Miami Herald and Brookings
Last weekend, American Admiral Kurt Tidd, head of U.S. Southern Command, visited with Colombia's vice president Oscar Naranjo in the coastal city of Tumaco, nominally to discuss the flow of drugs from Colombia's Pacific coast.
Tidd's visit to Colombia has triggered suspicions in Venezuela of a possible invasion by Colombia, backed by the United States. Venezuela's chief prosecutor said:
"In Colombia, they are planning to revive eras that had ended in human history, like military bombing, a military invasion or the occupation, through blood and gunfire, of a peaceful country like Venezuela. We will not allow it."
However, the commander of Colombia's armed forces replied, "We have so many problems in our own country, and that’s what we are solely dedicated to and focused on. We’re only interested in the problems of the Colombian people."
Nonetheless, with Venezuela's economy deteriorating rapidly and the flow of refugees surging, there is growing fear that Venezuela will destabilize the entire region, and that military action must be taken.
Vanessa Neumann of the Foreign Policy Research Institute was interviewed on Fox Business News, and said that Venezuela is presenting a major security threat to Colombia, because locals are getting into fights with the refugees, and there are terrorists mixing in with the refugees coming across the border.
Neumann gave the following assessment (my transcription, slightly edited):
"[Colombia's] military is sending armored personnel carriers with 50 caliber guns on top to stop the flow [of refugees from Venezuela]. It's gotten so bad that the locals are beating up the homeless Venezuelan refugees because there's just too many of them, even though they really consider themselves as brothers.The other thing is Venezuelans have now joined some of the terrorist groups, because they've given them food, and the uniform and the job. They have launched 11 terrorist attacks in Colombia. The Colombians won't take this sitting down. They will go and cross the border into Venezuela, and then they'll have military assistance from the United States. ...
That's what I see happening, as well as more violence within Venezuela, because of the food. People are now just killing each other for food.
And in the border towns when they do escape I see them, selling gasoline, selling their own hair, selling their bodies, giving away their children. I saw it first-hand last week, and this week it's much worse. This won't last much longer.
And now some of the Venezuelans are saying, please -- they've never really advocated for American intervention before, but now 'We're so hungry, this is so bad, please come help us.'"
Maritime Herald and Miami Herald and Russia Today
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Feb-18 World View -- Colombia and Brazil close borders with Venezuela amid talk of possible military intervention thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Feb-2018)
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Massive 1998-2003 war between Hema and Lendu tribes has continued violence today
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Tens of thousands of refugees in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have been fleeing tribal violence.
More than 14,000 refugees, the large majority women and children, have fled the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Uganda since December 18th 2017, because of increased tribal violence in eastern DRC. This is a big upsurge in refugees, reflecting a sharp increase in tribal and ethnic violence throughout eastern DRC.
Refugees have reported that the current situation in DRC includes armed groups burning down and pillaging villages, torching houses, shutting down schools, hospitals and churches, forcefully recruiting young men, abducting and kidnapping innocent citizens, raping women and girls. Some refugees were forced to pay armed groups to cross the border into Uganda to escape the violence.
Tribal conflicts are common in DRC. Since 1960, there have been more than 17 civil wars recorded, with four million deaths. For years, refugees from DRC have come to Uganda, particularly since August 2007, when government forces attacked civilians in North Kivu province in order to obtain mineral resources, including gold. At the end of 2017, there were 242,406 registered refugees in Uganda from DRC, and the number is increasing sharply because of increased tribal violence in DRC. In January alone, 13,550 additional refugees have arrived.
Because of the increased violence in DRC, Uganda is making plans to host hundreds of thousands more refugees. Uganda has a population of nearly 1,4 million refugees, of whom 1 million are from South Sudan and nearly 250,000 are from DRC. ReliefWeb and NTV (Uganda) and The Nation (Kenya)
After the 1994 Rwanda genocide, the violence spread to DR Congo as Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi intervened, and took sides in the tribal and government violence in eastern DRC, providing troops, training, arms, and general aid to the warring sides.
The Hema and the Lendu ethnic groups of the DR Congo are both pastoralist tribes, and they have historically had wars in competition for land for their cattle. After a new Hema-Lendu war started in 1998, Ugandan militias sided with the Hema against the Lendu. The result was a massive war in the Ituri district of northeastern Congo between August 1998 and July 2003, killing some 3.3 million people, and displacing hundreds of thousands more. The point of the war was mainly to gain control over mineral rights in the tribal land. Although the war was officially settled in 2003, the violence between Hema and Lendu, as well as between other tribal groups, continues to this day.
The European Union has announced that it will offer 100,000 euros in humanitarian aid for Congolese refugees in Uganda. According to an EU official:
"Renewed fighting and atrocities in DRC are driving thousands of Congolese from their homes. After the long journey, many of them arrive in the refugee settlement weakened and destitute. EU funding is being released to increase the safe water supply and improve sanitation, hygiene and health services. It is crucial that we provide dignified living conditions and prevent disease outbreaks."
According to one commenter: "This is good news for French speaking Europe: these refugees in Uganda won't try going to Europe, but will just flock more & more to Uganda where the money is!"
Northeastern Congo is cursed with vast riches in the form of mineral wealth, in a region with many tribes and ethnic groups. The level of violence increased sharply in mid-December, resulting in a massive new surge of refugees crossing the border, which Uganda is now faced with hosting in refugee camps. Kat Nickerson (June 2012) and Defence Web (South Africa) and ACT Alliance and Observer (Uganda)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Feb-18 World View -- Thousands of DR Congo refugees pour into Uganda to escape tribal violence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(13-Feb-2018)
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Moon Jae-in faces some difficult decisions
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
|
History has been made this weekend, as the visit by North Korean officials to the Winter Olympics in Seoul has produced a softening of tensions between North and South Korea, and is succeeding in driving a wedge between South Korea and its allies, the United States and Japan. North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is truly a brilliant at marketing.
And best of all was Kim Yo-jong, the dictator's sister. She not only charmed president Moon Jae-in, she also charmed all of South Korea and in fact the whole world.
That's what you would believe if you read the mainstream media coverage of the Seoul Olympics.
US Vice President Mike Pence was described as "the loneliest figure" in the audience. He is described as having "snubbed" Kim Yo-jong, who was seated just a few feet away from him. Pence was truly the Grinch Who Stole Christmas.
Pence posted a tweet:
The US will not allow the propaganda charade by the North Korean regime to go unchallenged on the world state. the world can NOT turn a blind eye to the oppression & threats of the Kim regime."
Kim Jong-un was reported as saying that Pence's behavior was "shameful" and "snobbish."
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe apparently tried to bring things back down to earth by saying, "Now is not the time to postpone U.S.-South Korea military exercises. It is important to move forward with the drills as planned." Abe was referring to the joint military exercises that had been postponed because of North Korea's attendance at the Olympics. The South Korean government told him in essence that it was none of his business. Korea Herald and Reuters
Before leaving Seoul on Sunday, Kim Yo-jong invited South Korea's president Moon Jae-in to visit her in Pyongyang, and also said that she'd like to visit Seoul again:
"Honestly, I never thought I would visit (the South) so suddenly and believed much would be strange and different but I saw many things that were similar or the same. Here's to hoping that we could see the pleasant people (of the South) again in Pyeongchang and bring closer the future where we are one again."
I thought that this was a very interesting statement, because it reminded me of the surprising outcome of a visit by Russia's Boris Yeltsin to the United States in 1989.
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Yeltsin was visiting the Johnson Space Center in Houston on September 16, 1989, when suddenly he asked to go shopping at a grocery store to be chosen more or less at random. He ended up at Randall's Supermarket in Clear Lake, and was astounded at the bewildering variety of products available to American shoppers. He had been led to believe that the grocery stores in America were even worse than the ones in Soviet Russia, and he was shocked to learn the truth.
According to Yeltsin's autobiography, this visit changed his life, and shattered his view of communism. Two years later he left the Communist Party, and started making economic reforms. He wrote in his autobiography:
When I saw those shelves crammed with hundreds, thousands of cans, cartons and goods of every possible sort, for the first time I felt quite frankly sick with despair for the Soviet people. That such a potentially super-rich country as ours has been brought to a state of such poverty! It is terrible to think of it."
So, when Kim Yo-jong says that she "saw many things that were similar or the same," what was she thinking? Was she reflecting on the many things that were dissimilar, and how much better off the South Korean people are than the North Korean people?
It's an interesting speculation, but Kim Jong-un is no Yeltsen. Nothing short of war is going to stop North Korea from developing its arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.
Still, there are many questions: What is Kim Yo-jong thinking? Will she try to convince her brother to end his nuclear weapons program? And if she does try, will he have her killed, the way he's had other family members killed? Inquiring minds want to know.
At any rate, Kim Yo-jong passed on to Moon an invitation from the dictator to visit North Korea “at his earliest convenience." AP and Houston Chronicle (7-Apr-2014)
Kim Yo-jong is pretty, and Moon Jae-in is charming, and they make a very attractive couple, and the media have been fawning over them, but the core issues haven't changed.
Kim Jong-un has already said that he can reach the United States with a nuclear weapon, and that he's safe from attack, though that's believed to be an exaggeration. It's believed that the purpose of his Olympics charm offensive was to buy at least two months' time to continue development. And now by inviting Moon to visit him, he hopes to buy some more time.
Now it's up to Moon to make the next move, and there are a number of questions to be answered:
The politics behind the "bloody nose" attack are very interesting. I've heard one analyst after another say that such an attack is "clearly and obviously impossible," because the North would immediately retaliate with a massive artillery attack on Seoul.
But actually that doesn't make sense, as the logic points in the opposite direction. Assuming that a way can be found to destroy North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile development facilities, the North would just have to accept it. If the North retaliated and attacked Seoul, then the next American attack would completely destroy Kim Jong-un's government, and Kim himself would be killed.
American government officials have been extremely clear that they will not permit North Korea to "have a deliverable atomic weapon that can reach the United States reliably. It just cannot be," in the words of John Kelly, echoing statements by Donald Trump, H.R. McMaster, Steve Bannon, Lindsey Graham, and others.
These are all considerations that Moon will have to take into account, as he decides what his next steps will be.
Rep. Choo Mi-ae, of Moon's left-wing Democratic party, welcomed the North's proposal for a summit meeting:
"If an inter-Korean summit is realized, it will be recorded as the biggest achievement of the PyeongChang Olympics. We have to work with greater responsibility as we make preparations and respond carefully to the invitation.Although there may be disagreements and concerns at home and abroad, what's clear is that peace stems from dialogue and it's impossible to oppose dialogue if we want peace."
However, Rep. Chang Je-won, right-wing opposition Liberty Korea Party criticized Moon for not raising the denuclearization issue with Kim Yo-jong during her visit:
"We once again warn that a visit by the president to North Korea, unless it is premised on denuclearization, would be nothing more than a congratulatory delegation celebrating (the North's) nuclear development and would amount to an enemy-benefiting act."
Korea Herald and Reuters and Yonhap News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-Feb-2018)
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With defeat of ISIS, war escalates, and Syria becomes more fragmented and chaotic
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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It was just a week ago, on February 3, that a Russian warplane was shot down in Idlib province by al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), using a portable surface-to-air missile. The pilot ejected, and was killed on the ground.
An Israeli F-16 warplane was shot down on Saturday by massive anti-aircraft fire fired by the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both pilots ejected and were rescued on Israeli soil. One pilot was severely injured.
The series of incidents began when Israel detected what it assessed was an Iranian drone crossing into Israel from Syria. The Iranian drone was successfully intercepted by an Apache combat helicopter. the drone was downed by the Apache and recovered intact.
The drone had been launched from an Iranian launch pad near Palmyra in central Syria. Israel retaliated with an air strikes against the launch pad, as well as against a dozen Syrian and Iranian targets.
Israel's warplanes were met with heavy anti-aircraft fire from both Syria and Lebanon, suggesting that the drone attack might have been a planned ambush, with retaliation by the Syrian regime and Hezbollah. One Israeli F-16 warplane was downed by a Syrian anti-aircraft weapon, most likely an SA-5 supplied by Iran.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said that Iran was only in Syria in an "advisory" role:
"The claim about the flight of an Iranian drone and Iran’s involvement in the downing of a Zionist fighter jet is so ridiculous that it does not merit a comment.This is because the Islamic Republic of Iran has advisory presence in Syria at the request of the country’s legitimate and lawful government."
Iran's Brigadier General Hossein Salami was even more belligerent, saying that Iran would create a "hell" for the Zionists, and that all American military bases in the region are within range of Iranian missile strikes.
Many analysts had hoped that the Iran nuclear deal would moderate Iran's behavior. Instead, it appears that the infusion of huge amounts of money by lifting sanctions has made Iran much more aggressive in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Iran continues to militarize its "Shia Crescent," and threaten Israel.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said:
"I've been warning for some time about the dangers of Iran's military entrenchment in Syria. Iran seeks to us a Syrian territory to attack Israel, for its professed goal of destroying Israel. ...Our policy is absolutely clear: Israel will defend itself against any attack and any attempt to harm our sovereignty. Iran made such an attempt today. It violated our sovereignty, it infiltrated Israeli territory with an [unmanned] aircraft from Syrian territory.
This is both our right and our duty and we will continue to do so as much as necessary. Let no one make a mistake about this."
Reuven Ben Shalom, a former Israeli fighter pilot, was even more belligerent, saying that Israel's aggressive actions send a clear message to Iran and Syria:
"This demonstrates our capabilities, demonstrates our resolve not to allow the breach of Israeli sovereignty. That means we can do whatever we want to do, we can take out any component we want, wherever we want. And I think it’s good that our enemies learn and understand these capabilities."
Debka (Israel) and Jerusalem Post and Tasnim News (Tehran) and Tasnim News and VOA
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On January 20, Turkey began its invasion of northern Syria, ironically named "Operation Olive Branch," to defeat the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). The plan was a quick victory in the northern city of Afrin, followed by an advance eastward toward Manbij, where it was feared that they would clash with US forces.
Achieving victory in Afrin has been going slower than promised, and on Saturday, YPG militias shot down a Turkish helicopter, resulting in the deaths of up to 11 Turkish soldiers.
Estimates are that since Operation Olive Branch began, the YPG has killed over 20 Turkish soldiers, and the Turks have killed over 150 Kurdish fight.
On Saturday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a speech, saying:
"A little while ago, one of our helicopters was downed. Of course all these things will happen - we are in a war. We will have losses, but we will also cause losses. Yesterday we destroyed and annihilated a very large rocket depot. Of course the YPG got mad about that. But of course we will make them pay heavily for that. Maybe one of our helicopters is gone, but they will pay for this. Not in kind, but so much more, because we are determined, and we believe we are superior. We will succeed in this as well."
It was just a week ago, on February 3, that a Russian warplane was shot down in Idlib province by al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), using a portable surface-to-air missile. The pilot ejected, and was killed on the ground.
Russia and Syria have both been taking revenge this past week by massive bombing of civilian neighborhoods in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib, including continued use of chlorine gas. Estimates are that 230 civilians have been killed by Russia and Syria in the last week. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Reuters and Globe and Mail (Canada)
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The war in Syria has sharply escalated this week. Four countries have lost a military aircraft in Syria in the last week. On Saturday, three countries lost military aircraft on a single day, just days after the same happened to a fourth country. So Iran lost a drone, Israel lost a warplane, Turkey lost a helicopter, and Russia lost a warplane.
There are at least 14 armies and militias operating in Syria now: Syria, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Free Syrian Army (FSA), Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), People’s Protection Units (YPG), Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel, United States, al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Sometimes the alliances are clear. For example, Turkey and the FSA are allied against the SDF and the YPG. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are allied against Israel. Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia are allied against Sunni civilians. In other cases, the alliances are fuzzy, such as the relationship between Turkey and the FSA.
As we've been saying for months, all of these forces (except ISIS) have been united only in that they were all nominally fighting against ISIS, albeit with a variety of hidden and conflicting objectives. Now that ISIS has been defeated, all of these conflicting objectives have been exposed, and all of these different armies and militias have no one to shoot at but each other.
Each of these 14 armies and militias has a different objective. Some of them want a piece of Syria. Other just want to keep someone else from getting a piece of Syria. In the middle of everything, you have the psychopathic war criminal Bashar al-Assad. These conflicting objectives mean that there will be no peace in Syria for a long, long time. The Drive
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Feb-18 World View -- Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(11-Feb-2018)
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Multiple reports indicate that Egypt and Israel are cooperating in Sinai
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Egypt's army announced the launch of a major military operation in the Sinai Peninsula. The operation will be targeting several jihadist terror militias, but it's expected that the major target will be the Bedouin-based Sinai terrorist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which changed its name to al-Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance in 2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
In November, at least 235 people were killed when ABM terrorists stormed the Al-Rawda mosque in Bir al-Abed in Egypt's Northern Sinai with explosives and gunfire with heavy weapons.
At that time, Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi promised revenge for these "vile and treacherous" attacks:
"The army and police will avenge our martyrs and return security and stability with force in the coming short period."
Egypt declared a nationwide state of emergency last April when twin suicide bombings on Palm Sunday at two Coptic churches in two cities north of Cairo killed at least 47 people.
In 2014, al-Sisi declared a state of emergency in northern Sinai following a suicide bombing that killed 33 soldiers. He said at the time that "the war in Sinai will last for a long time, as there are a lot of terrorists hiding in the peninsula, but this new level of attacks has put us in a new level of planning too in order to combat the terrorism there."
The operation announced on Friday is called "Comprehensive Operation Sinai 2018." The operation is said to be unprecedented in its scope, coordination and size, involving thousands of troops. According to the army's announcement:
"[This] morning the law enforcement forces began to implement the Comprehensive confrontation plan of terrorist and criminal elements and organizations in North and Central Sinai and other areas of the Delta of Egypt and the Western Desert linebacker. [The objectives are] clearing areas where there are terrorist hotbeds, and to fortify Egyptian society from the evils of terrorism and extremism in parallel with other crimes affecting security and internal stability. ...As part of ongoing law enforcement efforts, elements of the Air Force have targeted some of the hotspots, dens, weapons and ammunition depots used by terrorist elements as a base for targeting law enforcement forces and civilian targets in Northern and Central Sinai."
The timing of the operation is probably related to Egypt's 2018 presidential election, in which el-Sisi is running for reelection. The election will be held on March 26-28. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Egypt Today
For several years, there have been reports that Egypt and Israel have been cooperating in Egypt's Sinai region. These reports were not confirmed, and some readers criticized me for mentioning them at all. Nonetheless, I always believed that they were true, because they made sense. Terrorists in Northern Sinai were killing Egyptians, and they were also shooting missiles across the border into Israeli towns. It seemed logical that the two countries would cooperate military to destroy their common enemy.
Now, in the last two weeks, there have been a flurry of new reports about this. Once again, the reports have not been officially confirmed, but they're now widely believed.
Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979. The treaty included the provisions that neither Israel nor Egypt can mass military forces or take military actions in Northern Sinai.
Several years ago, Israel and Egypt announced that Israel was waiving the restriction on Egypt's military in Sinai, so that Egypt's army could fight the jihadist militias. However, the possibility of Israeli airstrikes into Sinai is clearly forbidden by the treaty, and if permitted by Egypt would be a very controversial issue in the Arab world, and could expose Egypt to criticism from its Arab allies.
Last week, the NY Times reported the following:
"For more than two years, unmarked Israeli drones, helicopters and jets have carried out a covert air campaign, conducting more than 100 airstrikes inside Egypt, frequently more than once a week — and all with the approval of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi."
The report has been dubbed "fake news" by some Arab media, but there seems to be little doubt that it's true. BBC and Middle East Eye and VOA and Jerusalem Post
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Feb-18 World View -- Egypt's army announces major counter-terrorism operation in Sinai - with Israel's help thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-Feb-2018)
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International Crisis Groups asks Russia to prevent Israel-Iran war in Syria
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The war in Syria may have gotten even more chaotic on Thursday when US-backed Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), backed by US warplanes, clashed with pro-regime Syrian army forces and allies. The pro-regime forces launched a massive, coordinated attack on the SDF, and were driven back with the aid of US warplanes.
The US had been observing the buildup of the pro-regime forces for several days, as they prepared for this assault on the SDF. During that period, the US forces contacted the Russians over an established "de-confliction" hotline that was set up to prevent such clashes. However, the pro-regime forces attacked anyway, and the SDF forces counter-attacked in self-defense.
According to Pentagon spokesman Dana White:
"Syrian pro-regime forces moved in a battalion-sized unit formation supported by artillery, tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and mortarsSyrian Democratic Forces acted in self-defense with support from the coalition to defeat an unprovoked attack by Syrian pro-regime forces in eastern Syria. Pro-regime forces initiated what appeared to be a coordinated attack on Syrian Democratic Forces east of the Euphrates River deconfliction line.
After 20 to 30 artillery and tank rounds landed within 500 meters of the SDF headquarters, the Syrian democratic forces , supported by the coalition, targeted the aggressors with a combination of air and artillery strikes,
Coalition advisors were with the SDF, and this action was taken in self-defense. Pro-regime vehicles and personnel that were turned around and headed back west were not targeted."
The Syrian regime attack on the SDF took place to the east of the Euphrates River, where US-backed forces have been continuing to fight forces from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) that had been expelled by the SDF from their self-described caliphate in Raqqa.
According to the Pentagon, an estimated 100 regime fighters were killed, out of a total of regime fighters, who were backed by artillery, tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and mortars in the assault.
The Syrian regime said that the US-backed forces had committed a "barbaric aggression" representing a "war crime":
"This new aggression, which represents a war crime and a crime against humanity and a direct support to terrorism, affirms the nature of the low US intentions against the sovereignty of Syria, the unity of its land and people and the US exploitation of the pretext of fighting terrorism to establish illegal bases on the Syrian territory."
With the Syrian regime dropping barrel bombs containing metal laced with chlorine gas on women and children in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib, it's really laughable for the regime to accuse anyone of anything. According to one doctor, "Ghouta is drowning in blood," where on the same day, Thursday, 100 people were wounded and at least 14 killed, including a rescue worker and several children. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is still the worst genocidal monster so far in the 21st century. RFE/RL and Dept. of Defense and Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) and Guardian (London)
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Regular readers will recall that for the last two years it's been apparent that Syria, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah, and the SDF were all fighting ISIS, but that as soon as ISIS was defeated, they would start fighting each other.
So you have the Syrian civil war between the regime plus al-Assad plus the Russians plus Iran plus Hezbollah versus the "anti-Assad rebel" resistance force. You also have the Turks fighting against the Kurds, where the fight in Afrin continues to drag on. And you have occasional flare-ups of violence between the SDF and the regime, as happened on Thursday. And the Israelis are conducting a counter-terrorism campaign against Hezbollah in the south of Syria.
It's this last war within a war that the International Crisis Group (ICG) described in a report on Thursday as the most dangerous and likely to grow through miscalculation into a larger war.
According to the report:
"The Syrian war has entered a new stage with the regime of Bashar al-Assad gaining the upper hand. Israel, no longer content to remain a bystander as Damascus’s position improves, is now jockeying to reverse the deterioration of its strategic posture. In this endeavor it has formidable obstacles to overcome: the regime is more dependent than ever on Iran, which Israel regards as its most implacable state foe; other enemies, particularly Hezbollah and Iran-backed Shiite militias, are entrenched in Syria with Russia’s blessing; and the U.S., notwithstanding the Trump administration’s strident rhetoric, has done little to reverse Iran’s gains. Yet Israel’s hand is not so weak. Russia has given it room to act against Iran-linked military interests and appears to be more interested in balancing contending fighting coalitions than returning every last piece of territory to the Assad regime’s control. But if Russia wishes to eventually withdraw or draw down its forces, it will need to broker rules of the game. Russia has indicated scant interest in doing so, but if it does not, hostilities between Israel and Iran may threaten its accomplishments, particularly regime stability."
The report says that this is going to result in a larger war through miscalculation, unless Russia takes on the responsibility of mediating a solution. The report says:
"Russia should broker understandings that bolster the de-escalation agreement distancing Iran-backed forces from Syria’s armistice line with Israel; halt Iran’s construction of precision missile facilities and its military infrastructure in Syria; and convince Israel to acquiesce in foreign forces remaining in the rest of Syria pending a deal on the country’s future."
One can only think that this is a joke. None of these actors -- Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or Israel -- is going to agree to anything like this.
In fact, the thought of Russia negotiating some sort of peace agreement is itself a joke. Russia has already negotiating "de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones" in its Astana (Kazakhstan) peace process, but now Russia itself is the biggest violator of its own agreement, but massive bombing of deconfliction zones in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib.
Russia can't negotiate a peace agreement because Russia wants to exterminate the same Sunni Muslims that al-Assad wants to exterminate. For Russia, a "peace agreement" is total destruction of the enemy who, in this case, are millions of mostly innocent civilians.
The United Nations can't broker a peace because the United Nations is itself a joke.
There's only one entity that could possibly play the role of forcing a negotiated peace, and that's the United States, Policeman of the World. But the US, even with the help of a US-led coalition, has neither the desire nor the ability to succeed at that role, and still has its hands full fighting ISIS.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. International Crisis Group and Middle East Eye and Arab News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Feb-18 World View -- US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Syrian regime forces thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Feb-2018)
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Nigeria sends army to curb violence between herders and farmers
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Some 30,000-40,000 refugees from the Anglophone (English-speaking) Southern Cameroons region of Cameroon have been flooding across the border into Nigeria, to escape violence and atrocities by the security forces of the Francophone (French-speaking) government of Cameroon's president Paul Biya.
The violence started in 2016, but at the start is one almost entirely one-sided violence, with the Francophone security forces violently attacking peaceful Anglophone protesters.
In 2016, the peaceful protests began with claims by Anglophone lawyers that the legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with many laws passed without even being translated into English. Anglophone teachers joined in, protesting that all courses in the schools had to be taught in French, and that any use of English was forbidden. The Francophone police responded by severely beating several protesters, and shooting two of them dead.
Violence by Francophone security forces grew during 2017, and took a particularly dangerous turn on September 22, when pro-Anglophone activist forces began using small bombs to target local security forces. On October 1, separatists staged a massive march, and declared the independence of Ambazonia. In the increasingly violent Francophone government crackdown that followed, hundreds of people were arrested, and helicopter gunships were used to fire on innocent civilians and kill them, resulting in the mass flight of refugees into Nigeria.
The October 1 marches were led by separatist activist Sisiku Ayuk Tabe.
On January 5, Nigeria captured Tabe while at a meeting in Abuja, Nigeria. Tabe was arrested with 46 of his supporters. After much political debate and calculation within the Nigerian government, a decision was made to extradite Tabe and his supporters back to Cameroon for trial. The extradition faced international criticism, because it was feared that the Biya government would torture them and give them an unfair trial.
It's possible that Nigeria gave in to the extradition hoping somehow that it would calm the situation on the border, or whatever. With tens of thousands of Anglophone civilians fleeing across the border into Nigeria, the Nigerians may have been desperate enough to try anything.
But now there's a major new complication. As Anglophone Cameroonians have been fleeing into Nigerian, Francophone Cameroonian soldiers have been crossing the border in violation of international law, following the fleeing refugees, arresting some of them, and taking them back to Cameroon.
Even worse, some of the people that the Cameroon soldiers arrested were actually Nigerian citizens, infuriating Nigeria's government.
Nigeria's Senator Enoh alleged that over 80 Cameroonian soldiers with various weapons crossed the international border of the Danare-Daddi/Danre-Bodom axis and abducted five natives.
"This is a calculated assault/offence from the Cameroonian military on Nigeria and on outright defiance of Nigeria territorial sovereignty, not minding the consequences of crossing the international boundary to carry out intimidations and harassment on the already alarmed citizens of Danare, with warnings of further assault."
There are increasing fears that the situation in Southern Cameroons is spiraling out of control, especially since Cameroon's 84-year-old president Paul Biya is willing to use any amount of violence, slaughter, torture and abuse to stay in power.
Cameroon's last generational crisis war was the "UPC Revolt," 1956-1960, which was a bloody civil war by communists attacking the French government in the Cameroun colony. The outcome was independence in 1961, when the British Cameroons colony and the French Cameroun colony were merged into a single country, and the Anglophones became a disadvantaged and marginalized minority. Today, Cameroon is right on the cusp of entering a generational Crisis era, which means that it's possible that the current violence could spiral into a new civil war, this time between the Anglophones and the Francophones. Vanguard (Nigeria) and Independent (Nigeria) and Vanguard (30-Jan)
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On January 31, a group of young men believed to be from the Christian Tiv farmer ethnic group attacked travelers waiting at the Gboko bus station in central Nigeria. The travelers were said to have "light skin and look like Fulanis," referring to the Muslim Fulani herder ethnic group. The Tiv attackers used sticks, stones and machetes to subdue the victims, and then set them on fire.
The attack is believed to be in revenge for an attack a week earlier by armed Fulanis who stormed a Tiv farming village and opened fire on the residents.
These are just two of a series of increasingly violent tit-for-tat attacks between herders and farmers. Herders are mostly Muslims from the Fulani tribe. Farmers are mostly Christians from a number of tribes, including the Tiv, Mambila and Bachama tribes. About 168 people were killed in these tit-for-tat attacks in January alone.
On Wednesday, Nigeria's army announced the launch of "Exercise Ayem Akpatum," a phrase that is said to mean "Cat race" in the Tiv language. The exercise will run from February 15 to March 31, 2018.
It is "aimed at curbing all cases of kidnapping, armed banditry, cattle rustling in Kaduna and Niger states, sundry crimes in Kogi state and herdsmen/farmers clashes in all respective states, especially in Benue, Taraba and Nasarawa states." Focus will be placed on raids, search operations, anti-kidnapping drills, road blocks, check points and humanitarian activities such as medical outreaches.
I have my doubts that "Exercise Ayem Akpatum" is going to do anything to solve the problem, but that remains to be seen.
As I've described many times in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Nigeria, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s, is that in country after country, there a classic and recurring battle between herders and farmers. The farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down.
As in the case of the Cameroon situation, there are fears that the increasing violence between herders and farmers in Nigeria today will spiral into full-scale civil war. Nigeria's last generational crisis war was the Biafran War or Nigerian Civil War, fought between Nigeria and the secessionist Republic of Biafra. The war began on July 1967, and ended on January 11, 1970, with the surrender of Biafra.
Since that war climaxed only 48 years ago, Nigeria is in a generational Unraveling era, and there are plenty of traumatized survivors of that war still alive who will do anything to prevent it from happening again. So there will not be a new civil war at the present time, but this localized violence between herders and farmers will continue and worsen. AFP and AFP (1-Feb) and Nigerian Eye and Nigerian Government
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Feb-18 World View -- Nigeria threatens Cameroon as 40,000 refugees cross the border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Feb-2018)
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Maldives president arrests Supreme Court justices to get favorable court ruling
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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India is debating whether it will be necessary to intervene military in the Maldives, as the government appears to be getting increasingly unstable.
Maldives is an archipelago of around 1,200 islands in the Indian Ocean, off the coast of India, with enormous strategic significance because of its proximity to international sea lanes through which two-thirds of the world’s oil and half its container shipments pass.
Maldives has had one presidential crisis after another for years, but the current crisis began most acutely in March 2015, when president Abdulla Yameen jailed Mohamed Nasheed, a former president who had been the only democratically elected president in the country's history. Nasheed and a dozen supporters were jailed on "terrorism" charges, which Nasheed said were politically motivated.
Nasheed was sentenced to 13 years in jail, but in 2016 he was permitted to go the UK for emergency medical treatment. While in the UK, he was granted asylum, and he's lived there in exile.
Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that the 2015 convictions were unconstitutional, and that all of Nasheed's supporters should be released from jail.
In response, Yameen ordered the police to arrest two of the Supreme Court justices. The remaining three judges then reversed the previous order to free Nasheed's supporters, and so they remain in jail. Yameen has ordered a 15-day state of emergency and imposed martial law, giving him and the police unlimited authority to arrest anyone without charging them.
The biggest industry in the Maldives is tourism, and this is the height of the tourist season. The US, the UK, India and China are all advising citizens not to travel to the Maldives for fear that the political chaos could turn into street violence.
Nasheed, still in exile, is calling on India to intervene militarily. India did intervene militarily in 1998, when Maldives was under attack from Sri Lankan Tamil militants. Today, India is keeping its navy on alert and continuing patrols around the Maldives islands, but there are no plans now to intervene. Al-Jazeera and New Delhi TV and BBC and Daily Telegraph (Australia) and AP
When Mohamed Nasheed was president, Maldives had a close relationship with the UK and India. However, president Yameen has distanced himself from the UK and India, and is developing close relationships with China, much to the distress of India.
Under Yameen, Maldives has also developed close relations with Saudi Arabia. In June, 2017, Maldives joined in the blockade by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Bahrain against Qatar.
For decades, India has considered both Maldives and Sri Lanka to be part of its major sphere of influence. But China has invaded both countries with infrastructure projects, gaining influence at India's expense. China has recently taken control of Sri Lanka's southern Hambantota seaport.
India was shocked on December 8 when China and Maldives signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This brings Maldives into China's Maritime Silk Road, a component of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Other agreements provided for cooperation in health, tourism, technology and climate change. When combined with China's control of Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport, this gives China considerable control over the sea lanes in the India Ocean. The Diplomat and First Post (India) and Nikkei Asian Review and The Diplomat (21-Apr-2017)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Feb-18 World View -- Maldives crisis pits India vs China in the Indian Ocean thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Feb-2018)
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UN Security Council is worthless as Syria uses chemical weapons with impunity
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Rescue workers are reporting that warplanes from the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and from his ally Russia have stepped up bombing attacks on civilians in densely populated neighborhoods in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib, and the use of chlorine gas has been stepped up. At least 29 people were killed.
Typically chlorine gas is deliver through the use of barrel bombs. The barrel bombs are filled with metal and chlorine gas in order to kill as many people as possible.
Al-Assad has used Sarin gas in the past to kill dozens or hundreds of people at a time. As a chemical weapon, chlorine gas doesn't immediately kill as many people as Sarin, but it's used in a different way. When warplanes start bombing women and children particularly hide in basements of buildings. Since chlorine gas is heavier than air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking women and children out into the open, where they can be targeted by missiles and gunfire.
As I've written many times in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far this century. The Syrian war began in 2011 when al-Assad ordered his army and air force to attack peacefully protesting civilians, including women and children. Things really turned around in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians. He dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons onto innocent Sunni women and children, he's targeted bombs on schools and hospitals, and he's used Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. Shia/Alawite al-Assad considers almost all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be exterminated. AP and Reuters and Deutsche Welle
At the United Nations Security Council meeting on Monday, US Ambassador Nicki Haley condemned Russia for blocking investigations into the use of chemical weapons in Syria:
"The news out of Syria this morning is following a troubling pattern. Victims of what appears to be chlorine gas are pouring into hospitals. ...Under the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Security Council Resolution 2118, the Assad regime’s obligations are clear: It must immediately stop using all chemical weapons. We spent much of last year in this council watching one country protect the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons by refusing to hold them responsible."
The reason that Russia is using its veto to block investigations of chemical weapons attacks in Syria is because Russia knows that Syria is using the chemical weapons to target innocent civilians. Bashar al-Assad is a war criminal, but Russia's president Vladimir Putin is also a war criminal, and there's honor among thieves or, in this case, honor among war criminals.
The Russians don't want to make the same disastrous mistake they made in 2013, after al-Assad's Sarin gas attack, killing hundreds of civilians. Russia allowed an investigation to go ahead, but they were too clever by half by allowing the investigation to go forward, but the investigators were forbidden from assigning blame. So A U.N. chemical weapons team was authorized to investigate the incident. However, thanks to a threatened Russian veto, the U.N. team was forbidden from assigning blame for the Sarin attack. But the team found a clever way of assigning blame without having to say it. In their scientific analysis of the evidence, they included calculations of the trajectories of the rockets that delivered the Sarin gas. They drew no conclusions about where the rockets were launched, but they provided enough scientific information within the report so that experts studying the report could analyze the trajectories to prove that the rockets must have been launched from a Syrian Republican Guard unit.
There have been several investigations of the 2013 Sarin gas attack, and there are thousands of pieces of evidence that al-Assad used Sarin gas on ordinary civilians, including forensic collections and analyses, photos, videos, eyewitness testimony, doctors' testimony, the UNSC report, analyses of the UNSC report, and so forth, proving al-Assad's repeated use of chemical weapons, including Sarin gas and chlorine gas.
As if that weren't enough, there was a new report last week that a new investigation used laboratory tests to prove that the Sarin gas used in the 2013 attack was identical to the Sarin gas that al-Assad turned over to investigators in 2013 when he agreed to permanently eliminate Syria's chemical weapons program. The new tests prove, once again, that Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the 2013 Sarin gas attack, though that hasn't been in doubt for years.
After the attack, al-Assad didn't admit he was responsible, but agreed to a destroy a 1,300 metric ton stockpile of chemicals related to the 2013 attack. Few people believed that al-Assad followed through on his promise, and laboratory tests since then proved that he didn't.
I've been around for a few decades, and I keep asking myself, how could all this be happening? We have al-Assad's use of chemical weapons with impunity, we have Russia invading and annexing Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, we have China building illegal large military bases in the South China Sea with the obvious intention soon of controlling all access to the South China Sea, and we have China building multiple large nuclear missile systems whose only purpose is to attack the United States in a preemptive attack. At the same time, we have a political clown circus going on in Washington, and an equally idiotic Brexit circus going on in London.
I know that Generational Dynamics has predicted all along that this sort of thing was going to happen, but I still react in amazement every day how the world has completely lost all common sense and is pushing itself off the edge of a cliff, guided by sheer insanity. It's astonishing. How could all this be happening? Politico and Reuters (30-Jan)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Feb-18 World View -- Syria's Bashar al-Assad steps up use of chemical weapons on his own people thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Feb-2018)
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Officials go from optimism to pessimism over solving Macedonia issue
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Chances to resolve a major European dispute dimmed considerably on Sunday, when hundreds of thousands of Greeks crowded into Syntagma Square in the center of Athens on Sunday to protest any name change that contains the word "Macedonia." Crowd size estimates varied from 140,000 to one million.
The dispute is between Greece and the country just north of Greece known as the "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (FYROM), or informally (outside of Greece) as just "Republic of Macedonia."
Greece has vetoed attempts by Macedonia to join either Nato or the EU because many Greeks consider "Macedonia" to be pure Greek name, and they oppose another other country using it as part of their own name. They are especially infuriated by Macedonia's claims that Alexander the Great was Macedonian. They claim that he was Greek because at that time the Kingdom of Macedon was part of Greece.
The proposed compromises involve adding a modifier, such as "Republic of New Macedonia," or "Republic of Upper Macedonia." In the past, right-wing nationalistic governments in both Greece and Macedonia were refusing to accept any compromise. However, it's been hoped that a compromise will be reached this year, because the governing parties in both countries are left-wing.
In Athens, the protests were led by 93-year-old composer Mikis Theodorakis, who wrote the score for "Zorba the Greek." He has always been on the far left, but on Sunday he was supporting the far right in opposing any compromise on the Macedonia name. On Saturday, self-described Anarchists spray-painted red paint all over his home, but on Sunday he said, "I am calm and ready." Kathimerini (Athens) and Greek Reporter and BBC and Meta (Macedonia)
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There has been growing hope expressed by officials in Nato and the European Union, in Macedonia and even among some officials in Greece, that finally this decades-old struggle might finally be resolved.
However, Sunday's huge anti-compromise rally in Athens is going to make compromise difficult. Opinion polls show that a majority of Greeks oppose the use of "Macedonia" in any compromise solution. About 300,000 people turned out at a demonstration on Jan. 21 in Thessaloniki, capital of Greece’s Macedonia region. Even members of Greece's parliament who would like to adopt a compromise know that they will have to face angry voters in the next election.
Some Greek officials are saying that there are very real reasons for concern in agreeing to allow "Macedonia" to be part of FYROM's new name. These concerns stem from FYROM's constitution.
Article 3 of the FYROM constitution says that the country "has no territorial claims against neighboring countries," but also states that the country’s borders could change in accordance with "the principle of free will and in agreement with internationally accepted rules."
Article 49 raises the greatest concerns:
"The republic is interested in the regime and the rights of all persons belonging to the Macedonian people in neighboring countries, as well as Macedonian expats, by assisting in their cultural development and and promoting bonds between them."
Greek officials are concerned that when the lawyers take over at some future time, then these articles could be used to claim that any Greeks living in Greece's Macedonian provinces are under the jurisdiction of the Republic of Macedonia.
Any compromise agreement would have to be ratified by the parliaments of both countries by a 2/3 majority. If there is no ratification, then each country would have to hold a referendum. There has been a lot of optimism that this problem will be solved this year, but Sunday's huge rally in Athens must at least turn some of that optimism to pessimism. Balkan EU and Greek Reporter (24-Jan) and Greek Reporter (16-Jan)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Feb-18 World View -- Hundreds of thousands in Athens Greece protest Macedonia name compromise thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Feb-2018)
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Fears grow of repeat of 2008 post-election violence
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Kenya is in crisis after the government led by president Uhuru Kenyatta, an ethnic Kikuyu, has been cracking down on free speech in violation of a court order, and is making arbitrary arrests of leading figures in the opposition, which is led by Raila Odinga, an ethnic Luo.
The government earlier this week ordered Kenya's top three independent TV channels to stop broadcasting, to prevent them from broadcasting Odinga's mock inauguration ceremony. The shutdown was originally supposed to be temporary, but the government has ordered the shutdown to continue. On Thursday, a pro-Odinga activist obtained a court order saying declaring the shutdown at an end, but the Kenyatta government has used police force to prevent the court order from being served on the government.
At the same time, the government have ordered the arrests of several pro-Odinga supporters. In one case, that of political activist Miguna Miguna, the police are ignoring a court order that he be released on bail.
Kenya's government chaos began in August of last year, when Uhuru Kenyatta won reelection as Kenya's president in an election that claimed was invalid because of numerous irregularities. In a ruling that shocked not only Kenya but all of Africa, Kenya's Supreme Court issued a ruling, overturning the election. A new election was held on October 26. Odinga's party declared that election invalid and boycotted it. Kenyatta won that election as well.
On Tuesday of last week, Odinga held a mock inauguration ceremony at Uhuru Park in downtown Nairobi, Kenya's capital city. (Uhuru is Kiswahili for freedom.) He held up a bible and declared himself the "people's president," at a "swearing-in" ceremony where he said that he was answering to a "high[er] calling to assume the office of the people's president of the Republic of Kenya."
Despite the fact that Kenyatta's government called the ceremony an act of treason, and despite fears that police would prevent the event from taking place, thousands of enthusiastic Odinga supporters attended the mock inauguration.
The government permitted the ceremony to go ahead, but called it an act of treason. It shut down the independent TV stations, forbidding anyone from broadcasting the event, and then began the arrests of the "conspirators" in the mock inauguration. CNN and Reuters and The Nation (Nairobi) and NPR
In 2007, there was a presidential election where Odinga from the Luo tribe was defeated for president by another member of the Kikuyu tribe.
After the December 2007 president elections, there was a period of extremely bloody inter-tribal violence in the Rift Valley in Kenya, beginning early in 2008. The worst atrocity occurred when 30 people were lured into a church to escape violence, and a young gang locked the doors and set the church on fire, burning everyone alive. All in all, more than 1,200 people were killed in the tribal violence between the Kalenjins, who are mostly herders, and the Kikuyus, who are mostly farmers. The Luos are an offshoot of the Kalenjins.
Kenya's last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that climaxed in 1956. At that time, Kenya was a British colony, and the Mau-Mau rebellion was largely a fight against the colonists. The 2008 violence was not a full-scale war, and it fizzled quickly. But today, nine years later, a new crisis war is overdue, and with the British colonists long gone, it's feared that there will be a new full-scale crisis war between the Kikuya, Kalenjin and Luo tribes.
Kenya's history has been something of a clash between two dynasties, the Kenyatta and Odinga dynasties. During the Mau-Mau rebellion, both the Kikuyus, led by Jomo Kenyatta, and the Luos, led by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, opposed the British colonists, although because of the country's geography, the Kikuyus bore the brunt of the fighting.
The Kenyattas and the Odingas were united after the war ended, but as the younger generations grew up, there was a clear split by the Awakening era of the 1980s, with Odinga and the Luos leaning toward Communist Russia and China, while Kenyatta and the Kikuyus were strongly pro-Western.
Incidentally, Barack Obama's ancestors were Luos. When Obama won the U.S. presidency in 2008, Kenyans were ecstatic, and his victory was declared a national holiday. But by the time of his re-election in 2012, Kenyan audiences celebrated him less as the son of a nation than as the son of a particular ethnic group, the Luos.
The Kikuyus have been in power for most of Kenya's history, and the Luos have been continually marginalized. After a failed coup in 1982, Raila Odinga himself was placed under house arrest for seven months.
Today, Kenya is just entering a generational Crisis era. The survivors of the Mau-Mau rebellion have wanted to prevent a new full-scale war from occurring, but now those survivors are almost completely gone, replaced with younger generations, many of whom are thirsting for war. The 1982 coup, which occurred during a generational Awakening era, fizzled quickly, as did the violence in 2008. But the population is very different today, and an attempted coup, if one occurred, could quickly spread into a larger war.
Uhuru Kenyatta is probably aware of this, and that's probably the reason he tells himself that it's necessary to shut down opposition television stations and jail opposition leaders. Unfortunately, those repressive actions will not prevent violence, and in fact could bring about the violence more quickly. The Nation (Kenya) and The Herald (Zimbabwe) and NPR (24-Jul-2015)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Feb-18 World View -- Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inauguration thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Feb-2018)
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Calais becomes difficult choke point in Brexit negotiations
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Police in Calais France intervened to protect around 20 Afghan migrants being attacked by more than 100 African migrants armed with iron rods and sticks.
This incident occurred on Friday afternoon, around the same time as a gunfight three miles away between about 100 Eritreans and 30 Afghans queueing for free meals at a distribution point near the town's hospital. Between the two incidents, 22 migrants are being treated in hospitals, including five in critical condition with gunshot wounds.
Nothing like this was ever supposed to happen again, once France closed down and bulldozed the big Calais migrant camp called "The Jungle" in 2016. At one point, The Jungle housed almost 10,000 migrants, and France's president Emmanuel Macron has promised that The Jungle will never return, saying, "There will be no reconstruction of the Jungle and no tolerance for the illegal occupation of public space."
To prevent a new Jungle from appearing spontaneously, Macron has adopted a number of very harsh policies. According to various reports, police are treating refugees brutally. Materials such as sleeping bags and covers are being confiscated and thrown out. Refugees are prevented from sleeping in the open, so they have to run into the woods and sleep there. Sometimes the police spray food with teargas so that it become inedible.
Nonetheless, various estimates indicate that 700-1000 migrants are now "sleeping rough" in Calais, mostly in the woods. When "The Jungle" existed, there was an infrastructure including semi-permanent dwellings, regular food deliveries, and some level of police protection for the migrants. Today, it's total chaos, with migrants sleeping under trees, NGOs providing irregular food deliveries, and police committed to getting rid of the migrants.
A furious Calais Mayor Natacha Bouchart said such violence "was absolutely unacceptable," and said her town was confronted by all-out gang warfare:
"They are people who live off this. Culturally, they are against the state, institutions. They help neither the migrants nor the population.The serious incidents multiplied from this afternoon. This was fighting between migrants, these were turf wars. There are more and more guns, iron bars and other weapons being used.
We have to clear the area. This is a security issue. The public can't carry on accepting this situation."
France's Interior Minister Gerard Collomb spent the night in Calais and said:
"There will be people here at their wits’ ends faced with this increasingly violent presence among a certain number of migrants, who it is plain to see are organized in gangs.We know there are gang leaders ... and it is these networks we must dismantle."
Collomb has a solution: He said that within two weeks the government would take over control of food distribution from local aid groups and conduct the handouts outside the town. That, he said, would remove an incentive for the migrants to gather in Calais.
In addition, last month Britain and France announced that the 2003 Le Touquet migration agreement will be renewed, and that Britain will pay £44.5 million to France to reinforce security measures in Calais, including fencing, CCTV and detection technology. France 24 and Reuters and Daily Mail (London)
Last week, protesting French fishermen completely shut down the port of Calais. Fishing boats blocked ferries from leaving and entering the port, while on land, fishermen burned tires to block access to the port of Boulogne-Sur-Mer.
The fishermen were protesting electric pulse fishing by large trawlers. The technique uses electrodes to emit electric waves, stunning fish which then float upwards and are scooped up by giant nets. However, supporters of pulse fishing say the technique reduces unwanted bycatch and avoids plowing nets along the seabed.
The second issue that the French fishermen were protesting was that they could lose access to English fishing waters after Brexit. With Britain in the EU, all the fishing waters are shared by all EU countries. After Brexit, that issue has to be renegotiated. This is just one more of the difficult issues that the port of Calais is presenting to UK-EU negotiators.
The blockade of the port ended after a few hours, but it took many more hours to clear the traffic jam that had built up.
That's because more than 2.6 million vehicles per year cross the English Channel between Calais and the Port of Dover, and any temporary blockage can cause a major traffic jam.
Today, with Britain still part of the EU, vehicles move on and off ferries to cross the Channel without delay, but after Brexit, there will have to be customs border checks. France says that it will have to hire an extra 95 customs officers this year, to perform the border checks after Brexit in March 2019. According to one analyst, a two-minute delay to process a single truck could cause a 17 mile traffic jam.
Britain has not yet announced its plans for its own customs border checks on its side of the Channel, but prime minister Theresa May says that it is seeking the freest possible trade with the EU after Brexit. Independent (Ireland) and UK Haulier and Reuters and London Express
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Feb-18 World View -- Migrants in Calais France hospitalized after violent clashes thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Feb-2018)
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Iran's 'Girls of Revolution Street' tear off their hijabs and headscarves
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In a move that may not have been good for his continued survival, 80 year old Iranian reformist Mahdi Karroubi harshly criticized the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei in a letter published on his political party's web site.
The criticism comes just one month after nationwide street protests that began as demonstrations against soaring food prices, but then grew into much more serious protests about government corruption among the political élite. It's widely believed that when Iranian sanctions were lifted after the nuclear deal was signed, and Iran received billions of dollars as a result, that money went to élite clerical institutions, at the same time that a banking crisis has caused millions of Iranians to lose their life savings.
As usual, Khamenei blamed the United States, Israel and other "foreign enemies" for the nationwide street protests. At least 25 people were killed in the protests, and hundreds of peaceful protesters were jailed.
Mehdi Karroubi has been under house arrest for seven years for supporting peaceful protesters during the 2009 election, when Iran's security forces overreacted and there was blood running in the streets.
Karroubi's letter to Khamenei was a reaction to last month's street protests:
"I urge you, before it is too late, to open the way to structural reforms of the system. ...The system is going downhill to such an extent that it feels endangered by a few thousand people demonstrating.
Instead of repeating accusations of links with the enemy and instead of harsh confrontation, listen to them. ...
More than 50 percent of the country’s wealth is in the hands of state bodies over which there is no supervision... Poverty and unemployment are plaguing the country.
More than 10 million Iranians, among 80 million, now live in absolute poverty. Under such conditions, it is natural that the lower classes, who were the grassroot supporters of the Islamic Revolution, will turn into a gunpowder barrel."
Karroubi also criticized Khamenei for letting the Revolutionary Guards take a commanding role in the economy as this "has tarnished the reputation of this revolutionary body and drowned it in massive corruption." Radio Farda (RFERL) and AP and Reuters
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Iran is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the end of the bloody, vicious Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988, just as America was in a generational Awakening era in the 1960s, one generation past the end of World War II. Awakening eras are characterized by generation conflicts between the generations of traumatized survivors of the war versus the generation that grew up after the war (the Boomers in America's case).
There are actually many similarity between America in the 1960s and Iran today. In both cases there were protests by college students against foreign wars, poverty and the economy.
One particular feature of America in the 1960s was the "Women's Lib" movement, where cute, attractive college girls paraded around demanding to be treated the same as men, and put on big shows of burning their bras to make the point that there was no difference between the sexes.
Iran's Awakening era has its own Women's Lib movement. It started on December 27, just as nationwide street protests were starting, when an unidentified woman climbed on top of an electricity box on one of Tehran’s busiest streets, Enqelab (Revolution) Avenue, removed her head scarf, and began waving it in the air.
A video clip of the woman, later identified as Vida Movahed, a 31-year-old mother, quickly went viral, and that was the beginning of "Girls Of Revolution Street." Now there is a movement for women to take off their headscarves and wave them in the air in protest of compulsory headscarves and hijabs.
This is anathema to the hardline geezers, who consider a girl without a headscarf to be almost as bad as an infidel. In 2007, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president at the time, ordered police in Tehran to swoop down on women with loose headscarves and arrest them. In some cases, they were simply warned. but in other cases they would be piled into a bus and taken to the police station for "questioning."
Every generational Awakening era has a climax. America's Awakening era climaxed with the resignation of president Richard Nixon in 1974. Iran's Awakening era will climax with some sort of regime change that will replace the Khamenei and the other hardline geezers that survived the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and are still running the country with a new, younger generation of leaders. And since young people in Iran today tend to be pro-American and pro-Western, and have no desire to push Israel into the sea, expect Iran to become an American ally once the Awakening era climax takes place. Radio Farda (RFERL) and CNN
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct anti-hijab protests thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(2-Feb-2018)
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Losing to Taliban has been predicted for years by generational analysis
by John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A new study by the BBC, based on interviews with 1200 people across Afghanistan, finds that the Taliban are in full control of 4% of Afghanistan's districts, and have an active and open physical presence in a further 66%, significantly higher than previous estimates of Taliban strength. That means that only about 30% of the districts are still controlled by the Afghan government. The interviews were conducted late in 2017.
The extent to which the Taliban partially or fully control districts of Afghanistan has been one of the most useful statistics used by analysts and politicians for gauging the success of the Nato coalition in defeating the Taliban.
However, there are indications that the US military is trying to suppress this kind of information. The Quarterly Report To The United States Congress issued by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) was released on Tuesday. According to the report, SIGAR has been specifically instructed by the US military not to release this kind of information any more, even though it's unclassified. According to the report:
"Aside from that, the number of districts controlled or influenced by the Afghan government had been one of the last remaining publicly available indicators for members of Congress -- many of whose staff do not have access to the classified annexes to SIGAR reports -- and for the American public of how the 16-year long U.S. effort to secure Afghanistan is faring. Historically, the number of districts controlled or influenced by the government has been falling since SIGAR began reporting on it, while the number controlled or influenced by the insurgents has been rising -- a fact that should cause even more concern about its disappearance from public disclosure and discussion."
A spokesman in Kabul, representing the US-led Nato coalition, denied both reports, saying that the Taliban contested or controlled only 44% of the Afghan districts, and that SIGAR had not been instructed to withhold unclassified data.
Whatever the actual figure is, no one as far as I know questions the fact that the Taliban have been gaining territory and the Afghan government has been losing territory, ever since most foreign troops left the country in 2014. And this trend is going to continue. BBC and Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and Reuters
As I've been writing for years, a generational analysis there is no chance at all that the Taliban will be defeated in Afghanistan. Journalists, analysts and politicians are unable to grasp even the simplest generational analysis. Nonetheless, it's worthwhile summarizing what I've described in the past.
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.
This growing generation of young vengeful Pashtuns cannot be defeated by any conventional or unconventional army. They're capable of forming cells, living off the land, and conducting terror attacks at any time, targeting the government and the ethnic groups in the Northern Alliance.
Afghanistan's capital city Kabul has been targeted in just the last two weeks by a series of massive terrorist attacks, killing hundreds of people. Furthermore, these attacks have been inside the most well-protected areas of Kabul, indicating that the Taliban terrorists have had help from the inside -- undoubtedly provided by other Pashtun youths.
The fact that the Taliban are gaining more and more territory each year is just a reflection of the fact that more and more youngsters in the Pashtun generation are coming of age, and are willing to avenge what they consider to be the atrocities committed against their parents' generation.
There's no way to stop this. This generation is going to continue growing, while foreign forces increasingly tire of fighting a war that most Westerners don't even care about.
However, as I've written in the past, the Nato alliance and the US administration appear to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. France 24
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Feb-18 World View -- New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(1-Feb-2018)
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