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Italy backs down from threat to veto the agreement over Dublin regulation
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As we reported a week ago, the Europeans were desperately searching for a solution to the migration problem, and they were considering a form of detention center called "Disembarkation Platforms," to be located in northern Africa, where newly arrived migrants could be taken initially for processing of asylum requests.
The promise was that a detailed plan would be worked out during the the major EU Summit meeting held in Brussels the last two days. The leaders met all day Thursday and then long into the night, finally announcing an agreement at 4:30 am. However, the agreement had no more details than the original proposal, and appears to be a fudge.
(Note to lexicographers: I've been seeing the word "fudge" a lot more lately. Besides a chocolate goodie, a fudge is something that's ambiguous, deceitful or a compromise. It seems to have replaced the phrase that was commonly used during Greece's financial crisis: "kicking the can down the road." In either case, they refer to a non-agreement that let's everyone congratulate one another on having reached a deal, and then go home and get some sleep, while postponing the search for a real solution to a later date.)
The new agreement tells almost nothing about how the Disembarkation Platforms would work:
"5. In order to definitively break the business model of the smugglers, thus preventing tragic loss of life, it is necessary to eliminate the incentive to embark on perilous journeys. This requires a new approach based on shared or complementary actions among the Member States to the disembarkation of those who are saved in Search And Rescue operations. In that context, the European Council calls on the Council and the Commission to swiftly explore the concept of regional disembarkation platforms, in close cooperation with relevant third countries as well as UNHCR and IOM. Such platforms should operate distinguishing individual situations, in full respect of international law and without creating a pull factor."
That paragraph contains just over 100 words, and it manages to do so while saying absolutely nothing.
No country has volunteered to host a Disembarkation Platform. Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have explicitly refused, and a spokesman for one of the three governments in Libya also refused, and said that he thought the other two governments would refuse as well. One concern that all of these countries have is that a Disembarkation Platform would encourage jihadist attacks.
Even if an African country considered hosting one of these Disembarkation Platforms, there would be international outrage from human rights activists.
The next paragraph of the agreement extends the detention center concept to "Controlled Centers" within the EU itself:
"6. On EU territory, those who are saved, according to international law, should be taken charge of, on the basis of a shared effort, through the transfer in controlled centers set up in Member States, only on a voluntary basis, where rapid and secure processing would allow, with full EU support, to distinguish between irregular migrants, who will be returned, and those in need of international protection, for whom the principle of solidarity would apply. All the measures in the context of these controlled centres, including relocation and resettlement, will be on a voluntary basis, without prejudice to the Dublin reform."
This paragraph says almost nothing. The one thing that it does say -- twice -- is "on a voluntary basis," which means that no country would have to allow a "Controlled Center" on its soil.
France and Austria, two countries that border Italy, immediately said that they would not be willing to host Controlled Centers on their soil.
France's president Emmanuel Macron said that his reading of the agreement indicated that Controlled Centers would only be set up in "frontline states," which means Italy and Greece, but certainly not France. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte issued a rebuke, saying that "Macron was tired," and did not understand the agreement, since it said that all EU states could set up the centers, "including France."
One analyst I heard, who obviously liked this deal, painted a picture of dozens of these little Controlled Centers located all across the EU. These people are truly living in Fantasyland. European Council - agreement and Vice News and European Council - Disembarkation Centers
Italy had threatened to veto the entire agreement unless the "Dublin regulation" was modified. This regulation specifies that the EU country that a migrant enters first is the country that must house the migrant and process his asylum application.
This regulation obviously places almost the entire burden of housing and processing migrants on Italy and Greece. Italy had demanded that the regulation be changed so that other countries would have to take a portion of the migrants entering Italy, but obviously no one wants to agree to that, and in fact, Hungary, Poland and Austria are opposed to any change at all to this regulation. So the agreement is silent on the Dublin regulation.
The rules of the European Council specify that no agreement can be issued unless it's unanimously agreed. Italy had threatened to veto any agreement that didn't modify the Dublin regulation. All Italy got was some vague wording that migration is a European problem, not just an Italian problem. But the agreement was not vetoed, so apparently Italy backed down from its threat. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte may be rebuked by other Italian leaders for this.
The agreement was also silent on "secondary migration," whereby many migrants that entered Italy went on to settle in Germany. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a challenge from Horst Seehofer, the leader of another member of her governing coalition. Seehofer wanted the agreement to specify that migrants in Germany who entered the EU in Italy should now be sent back to Italy. This would require a bilateral agreement between Germany and Italy, and obviously Italy will not agree to such a deal. Seehofer has threatened to bring down Merkel's government if he doesn't get his way, and he may do so early next week. However, there have been some reports that Seehofer is softening his position, so he may back down also.
At any rate, the only thing that's certain is that even though all the EU leaders were congratulating themselves and each other for reaching such a fine agreement, nonetheless that agreement is a fantasy. The EU is no closer to solving the migration problem than it was a week ago. AFP and Reuters and Al-Jazeera
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jun-18 World View -- EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Jun-2018)
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China activists accuse Australia of anti-China racism
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Australia's parliament on Thursday passed sweeping new foreign influence laws targeting secret attempts by foreign spies to influence Australia's politicians, media, ethnic groups and civil society organizations. Espionage, treason and treachery offences will be expanded, with harsh criminal penalties. The bills also set up a register of foreign lobbyists, forcing anyone working in Australia “on behalf” of a foreign government to publicly reveal themselves.
The laws respond to allegations that foreign countries are trying access classified information about Australia's global alliances and military, as well as economic and energy systems.
Australia's Attorney-General Christian Porter said:
"This sends a strong message to those who would seek to undermine our way of life that Australia is acutely aware of activities against our national security and will continue to take the steps necessary to thwart their activities."
The laws do not mention China, but it's clear that China and Chinese agents are the targets of the laws.
Lawmakers who opposed the laws said that they would criminalize free speech and non-violent protest, and would allow prosecution of journalists for simply possessing classified information, though some amendments were added to the original bill to answer these concerns.
Relations between Australia and China have been in crisis for over a month, after an Australian MP, Andrew Hastie, delivered a speech to parliament accusing a prominent wealthy Australian politician, Dr. Chau Chak-wing, of being linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and of bribing a United Nations official to obtain UN backing for a number of multi-billion dollar Chinese infrastructure projects. According to Hastie, Chau Chak-wing was a prominent member of Beijing's "United Front Work Department" (UFWD), which is an international Chinese coercive propaganda organization described by Chinese leaders as "Magic Weapons." Sydney Morning Herald and Special Broadcasting Service (Australia) and BBC
Huawei is the world’s third-largest smartphone maker, behind only Apple and Samsung. It is also the world's largest supplier of wireless and telecommunications networking equipment. It was founded in 1987 by Ren Zhengfei, a former People’s Liberation Army (PLA) engineer, and is suspected of developing projects that the PLA could use for identity theft worldwide, and take control of wireless networks worldwide from China.
As I've described previously, in the past I spent several years developing embedded software in C for microprocessors, and so I know personally that the capabilities described above can be implemented and, in fact, can be implemented easily. Furthermore, if the code is written so that the secret functions are only invoked when the device receives a secret 1024-bit code, then it's impossible to detect the functions through testing. And in view of China's illegal actions in the South China Sea and elsewhere, we have to assume that if it can be done easily, then it will have been done.
Australian security agencies are saying that Huawei products are a threat to Australian security. Huawei has been bidding to take a role in as Australia's high-speed internet provider, but has been facing distrust from Australian politicians and security agencies.
At the same time, a new report finds that Huawei is the biggest corporate sponsor of overseas travel for Australian politicians.
Huawei paid for 12 trips by Australian federal politicians to the company’s headquarters in Shenzhen, including business class flights, local travel, accommodation and meals since 2010. Politicians who took those trips include Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Trade Minister Steve Ciobo and former Trade Minister Andrew Robb.
Solomon Islands dropped plans for a billion-dollar internet cable connecting Australia with the Solomon Islands after Australia this month promised hundreds of millions of dollars to ensure Huawei did not build the cable, because of security risks. News.com (Australia) and Reuters
Australia has a long history of antipathy towards Chinese in Australia since European settlement, starting with race riots amid the gold rush of the 1850s and '60s. With hundreds of Chinese prospectors injured and evicted from mining sites, the unrest prompted immigration rules that led to the infamous "White Australia" policy, which existed in various forms from 1901 until 1973.
Chinese activists have increasingly been saying that anti-Chinese racism is rising again, and that it's the cause of anxiety about Chinese influence in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United States, Europe, and other countries.
However, there are plenty of reasons for anxiety about China's intention that have absolutely nothing to do with racism. China is conducting well-publicized illegal activities in the South China Sea, building a massive military force with the intention of taking control of the whole region. China is also making military threats against India, Japan and other countries where the government wish to confiscate a portion of the regions they govern.
Equally troubling is China's "United Front Work Department" (UFWD), which is an international Chinese coercive propaganda organization described by Chinese leaders as "Magic Weapons." The UFWD is in contact with over a million Chinese expats in countries around the world, and uses a variety of techniques to coerce them to influence local politicians and media to support China's policies in a variety of areas, including Taiwan policy, criminality in the South China Sea, One Belt One Road, the Dalai Lama, and so forth.
There are 150,000 Chinese students in Australia, and there have been numerous incidents where Chinese students complained to school officials that lectures or course materials made them "fell uncomfortable" because they didn't "show respect" for China. They've complained about materials that describe Taiwan as a country, about a map that shows Indian territory claimed by China as Indian territory. These complaints were accompanied by demands that the materials be changed.
Now imagine any Western country trying the same thing. Imagine an agency in the Trump administration telling American students in universities overseas to complain when the university lectures and course materials contradict American policy as defined by the Trump administration. The international outrage would be enormous, and none of the American student expats would do as they has they had been told anyway.
By Western standards, what China is doing appears to be almost like mind control. It's amazing that an agency like the UFWD exists, and it's amazing that Chinese students around the world do as they're told -- although the latter could be explained by the fact that China can threaten punishment for any student that disobeys orders.
America does have an agency that sends people to countries around the world -- the Peace Corps. "The Peace Corps is a service opportunity for motivated changemakers to immerse themselves in a community abroad, working side by side with local leaders to tackle the most pressing challenges of our generation."
I've never heard anyone describe the Peace Corps as a "Magic Weapon" or as any kind of weapon. America has the Peace Corps, to help bring peace, and China has the "Magic Weapon Corps" to coercively spread Chinese propaganda.
So if people in Australia, Canada, the US or any other country is anxious about the Chinese, the Chinese have only themselves to blame, and it has nothing to do with racism.
China's policies could have serious consequences for Chinese expats. In World War II, the American government interred Japanese-American citizens but not German-American citizens. There are probably a lot of reasons for that, not the least of which is that there were too many German-Americans to even think about interring. But the main thing is that there was a great deal of mutual American-Japanese xenophobia prior to the war, and that turned into internment during the war. China's coercive propaganda policies applied to Chinese expats to the point of apparent mind control could, in some future circumstances, lead to the internment of Chinese expats in Australia, Canada or the United States. So the Chinese policies may be "Magic Weapons," but they could have severe consequences for the Chinese themselves. BBC and The Diplomat and Australian Broadcasting and Peace Corps and Australia-China Student Association
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jun-18 World View -- Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Jun-2018)
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Zimbabwe elections overshadowed by the country's dark past
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa is blaming a political group linked to Grace Mugabe, the wife of former president Robert Mugabe, for a bomb explosion that occurred last Saturday (June 23) during a Mnangagwa rally, killing two and injuring dozens. The obvious target was Mnangagwa, but he escaped unharmed.
Fearing a new terror attack on Wednesday, Mnangagwa canceled a rally scheduled for Wednesday, his first campaign rally since the attack on Saturday.
Wednesday's rally took place without him. It was in the city of Hwange, which is an opposition stronghold, like Bulawayo, which is where Saturday's attack occurred.
Although Mnangagwa did not directly accuse Grace Mugabe of being in involved in Saturday's bombing, he accused the Generation 40 (G40) group of Grace Mugabe supporters of being behind the bombing. The G40 group is a group of younger members of Mnangagwa's and Mugabe's Zanu-pf political party. Grace Mugabe is 52 years old, while her husband Robert Mugabe is 94.
A former member of the G40 group, former government minister Jonathan Moyo, said that the explosion "smacks of an inside job."
The implication is that the Mnangagwa election team staged the explosion in order to justify a crackdown on the opposition prior to next month's general elections, scheduled for July 30. It seems unlikely that the bombing was an inside job, however, because of the large number of casualties.
Even so, there's a widespread suspicion that Mnangagwa will use the explosion as an excuse for security crackdowns that will guarantee the election of him and his Zanu-pf party. Under Robert Mugabe, extreme violence was used for decades to keep Zanu-pf in power.
Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa, head of the opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has directly suffered election related violence under the Mugabe regime. He said on Wednesday:
"It shows you that things can turn ugly, it has been ugly in the past and over the past 38 years we have had disputed elections, violent elections, state-sponsored violence and we are likely to see that ugly feature rearing its head once more.Zimbabweans are vulnerable ... the electorate is vulnerable, political players like myself are vulnerable. I have scars on account of political violence in the past, so it's something we have budgeted for."
However, Mnangagwa is trying to reassure the international community that Zimbabwe has changed, and that it's once again a good idea for foreign investors to invest in Zimbabwe. In particular, he's promised that the election will be free and fair, and open to international observers. He has invited election observers from the United States, the European Union and elsewhere for the first time in 16 years. Mugabe rejected Western observers, accusing them of bias.
In order to reassure both voters and foreign investors, all 23 president candidates running in the July 30 elections signed a "peace pledge" on Wednesday committing themselves and their political parties to a peaceful campaign ahead of the elections. BBC and Herald (Zimbabwe) and Reuters and Guardian (London) and AP
During last year's chaos in Zimbabwe's capital city Harare, president Robert Mugabe fired his vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, so that Grace Mugabe could succeed him. This triggered a series of events that led to the forced resignation of Mugabe, and his replacement with Mnangagwa as the new president.
There was a great deal of vitriolic hostility between the two men last year, and it was joined by Mugabe's wife Grace Mugabe, who blamed Mnangagwa for her husband's downfall.
However, the vitriol was only recent, since the two men worked closely together since independence in 1981.
They're both in the Shona tribe, and they both are responsible for Operation Gukurahundi, the genocidal war crime that brought in North Korean soldiers to help exterminate tens of thousands of civilians in the hated Ndebele tribe in the early 1980s.
They've both cooperated in turning Zimbabwe into a police state, where anyone who speaks against the government was likely to be arrested, tortured and killed. This is particularly true of the members of the Ndebele tribe that managed to survive Operation Gukurahundi.
They both worked together on Mugabe's "indigenization" program, which threw out farm and business owners who knew how to run a farm or a business, and replaced them with thugs and cronies from Mugabe's and Mnangagwa's Shona tribe who didn't know how to run a farm or business. Over three decades, Mugabe and Mnangagwa turned Rhodesia, which was a wealthy country and the breadbasket of southern Africa, into today's Zimbabwe, which is an economic basket case.
Mnangagwa is now trying to convince foreigners to invest in Zimbabwe again. In order to do that he's going to have convince investors that Operation Gukurahundi and indigenization are in the past, and won't be repeated in the future, so that investors' money will be safe. This is going to be a tough sell for Mnangagwa, since there are still a lot of people in Zimbabwe, especially people in the Nbdele tribe, that believe that there is continuing violent discrimination against people in the Nbdele tribe, and that Mnangagwa will not hesitate to use "indigenization" to confiscate a farm or a business to aware to one of his Shona cronies in return for political favor. The Zimbabawean and Al Jazeera and Independent (Zimbabwe)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jun-18 World View -- Zimbabwe president Mnangagwa blames Grace Mugabe for bomb blast at rally thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Jun-2018)
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Israeli missiles strike Iranian cargo plane near Damascus
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Daraa province in southwestern Syria is facing a new humanitarian crisis as the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad steps up ground attacks, backed up by airstrikes from Russian warplanes.
Following the usual pattern, al-Assad treats all the people in the region, including ordinary civilians, women and children, as "terrorists," and uses that as a justification for genocide and ethnic cleansing. The attack on Daraa has just begun in the last week, and is targeting 750,000 people in Daraa.
Already, 45,000 people had been forced to leave their homes and flee. Last week, it was reported that tens of thousands fled into Jordan to escape the violence. However, reports in the last few days indicate that Jordan has closed its border, and the Daraa residents are trapped inside Syria as regime forces and Russian warplanes close in.
When Jordan closed the border in 2014, it led to a humanitarian crisis as some 60,000 people were forced into a lawless ad-hoc camp, inaccessible to any medical or humanitarian aid and controlled by exploitative criminal gangs.
Amnesty International has warned Jordan of the "dire consequences" that resulted from the previous closure of the border and said tens of thousands were still stranded in "deplorable" conditions. A spokesman said that Jordan has a duty to open the border:
"Jordan has a duty to protect refugees from Syria fleeing conflict and persecution, and to allow them to enter the country. Closing the border to people in need of protection violates Jordan's international obligations."
Syrian forces are remaining in Daraa province so far, and have not gone farther west into neighboring Quneitra province, which is on the border with Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israel is watching these movements very closely, because the Syrian army could attack targets in Israel from Quneitra, resulting in a larger war. Israel has already made it clear that it will not tolerate Iranian or Hezbollah forces near the Golan border, and has previously targeted Iranian weapons systems and other Iranian targets approaching the border.
The US is receiving some criticism for having apparently set a red line last week, when the US State Dept. announced that if Syria and Russia broke the ceasefire in Daraa, there would be "firm and appropriate measures," and is now backing down by notifying the Free Syrian Army (FSA) that they should not expect any support from the US military. Sky News and Reuters and Washington Post and Independent (London)
Syrian state media says that two Israeli missiles struck targets near Damascus airport early on Tuesday morning. Other sources claime that the missiles an Iranian cargo plane, which was landing at Damascus International Airport.
It's not clear whether they were ground to ground missiles or launched from a warplane. Israel has followed its usual policy of not commenting on foreign news reports.
Debka is reporting that the missiles hit an Iranian air force Ilyushin Il-76 cargo plane unloading munitions at Damascus military airport early Tuesday. The explosions caused the plane to burst into flame with a number of unidentified casualties. Debka's reports are written from Israel's point of view, based on military and intelligence sources that provide valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that they definitely do get some things wrong. Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA, Damascus) and Al-Jazeera and Debka
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jun-18 World View -- Tens of thousands fleeing Syrian bombs trapped at closed Jordan border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Jun-2018)
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Brief generational history of Iran's protests
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Thousands of Iranians on Monday took to the streets of Tehran, Iran's capital city, to protest rising prices and a sinking economy, with unemployment rates above 24%. Traders at Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their shops and joined the demonstrators, protesting the sharp fall in Iran's rial currency versus the US dollar.
The prices of imported goods have skyrocketed because of the loss in value of the rial. The official exchange rate is 42,000 rials per US dollar. But in April, the black market exchange rate was 60,000. Just one week ago, the exchange rate was 80,000. On Sunday, it shot up by another 10,000 rials, to an exchange rate of 90,000 rials per US dollar. This kind of increase means that the cost of an imported item has now more than doubled in price, in just a few weeks.
It's apparently Sunday's apparent collapse in the value of the rial that triggered the mass protests on Monday. Shopkeepers joined the protesters chanting "Strike!" and "We don't want the dollar at 100,000 rials!"
In desperation, Iran's central bank plans to set up a "secondary currency market" by next week. The details have yet to be released, but the idea seems to be that new regulations would prevent merchants from raising prices when the value of the rial fall.
Needless to say this is infuriating to merchants and shopkeepers who can see that they're going to be required to pay more for imported goods, but that there will be new regulations forbidding them from charging higher prices for the same items. This is the same kind of thing that has been tried in Venezuela and Zimbabwe with disastrous results.
In late December of last year, there were similar economic protests that spread to some 75 cities and towns, resulting in 25 people killed and nearly 5,000 arrested. NBC News and BBC and Tehran Times and Radio Farda
As happened in December's massive demonstrations, the protests quickly spread from economics to foreign policy and to questioning the competence of the entire government.
In my article on the December protests, I listed about 20 of the protests that were being chanted, many of them quite vicious. One chant that was prominent on Monday that didn't appear in my previous list is "Death to Palestine!"
This is a particularly ironic chant because it cuts into the entire ethos of the Islamic government. The two supreme leaders, Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, used a variety of artifices to justify their mass slaughter, torture, rape, and extrajudicial arrests of innocent peaceful protesters, but the main ones have always been to blame Iran's problems on the Big Satan (the United States) and the Little Satan (Israel). As I've been reporting for years, the young generations of Iran are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and this chant makes it clear that they're pro-Israel -- or at least not anti-Israel.
The protesters' objections to Iran's foreign policy ties back again to the economy. Iran is spending enormous amounts of money supporting Bashar al-Assad in Syria, supporting the Houthis in Yemen, supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, and supporting Hamas in Gaza. After the nuclear deal was signed in 2015, and Iran received a billions of dollars in released funds, instead of spending the money on the economy, the perception among Iranians is that they wasted the money on Syria, Yemen, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
I particularly have to shake my head at Iran's support for Hamas, using Iranian-supplied weapons to attack Israel. Hamas is a Sunni terrorist group, and they will never accept hegemony from Shia Iran. They're happy to take any free money and weapons supplied by Iran, of course, but it shows the depth the delusions suffered by 78-year-old Khamenei that he thinks he can govern the Sunni Palestinians -- or even more delusional, if he believes that al-Mahdi, the hidden Imam from Shia theology, is about to return and convert the world to Islam, rewarding him for supplying arms to Hamas.
With the Trump administrations imposing new sanctions, the huge stream of money that Iran started receiving in 2015 is now going to be sharply reduced. This is providing the government with the opportunity to blame Iran's economic troubles on the US, when in fact the economy would be in much better shape if the stream of money hadn't been wasted on foreign wars. Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel and Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia)
One of the many ironies of Monday's protests is that they were led by merchants and shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. Merchants and shopkeepers were strong supporters of Khomeini at the start of the Great Islamic Revolution in 1979, because they were highly critical of the economic policies of the secular but autocratic government of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. Not surprisingly, after 40 years of the hardline extremist Sharia law imposed by Khomeini and Khamenei and the resulting economic disaster, two of the chants that could be heard on Monday were "Death to the dictator!" and "Reza Shah, Bless Your Soul!"
But the significance of Monday's protests goes back much farther than that.
During the 1800s, Iran (Persia) was repeatedly humiliated in border clashes with Britain and Russia. So the public had had enough when Iran's government granted a tobacco concession to Britain in 1890. This concession gave granted a monopoly on both the purchase and sale of tobacco within Persia to an English company for a period of fifty years. The tobacco concession struck at the heart of Iran's culture. At this time, nearly everyone in Iran, both men and women, used tobacco products, as they gathered to smoke and drink coffee. The tobacco merchants felt their livelihood threatened, and enlisted the help of other bazaar merchants to organize anti-government protests. In the northern regions of Iran under Russian influence, including today's Azerbaijan, support for the protests was strong because the monopoly had been granted to the British, locking out the Russians.
The result was the Tobacco Revolt (1890-92). The Shah was forced to rescind the tobacco concession, but the protests continued, and dozens of protesters were killed before the protests fizzled. The Tobacco Revolt was a major event in Iranian history, with implications far beyond the income of tobacco merchants.
In the end, the issues raised by the Tobacco Revolt were not about tobacco production, but about the right of the Shah to have the power to grant concessions to other nations without the approval of the people. Muslim countries had had Sharia law for centuries, based on Roman law but merged with the core concepts of Islam. But Sharia law had to do with rules for ordinary people, and placed no restrictions at all on the what the Shah could do.
That's when the people of Iran looked across the Atlantic and saw what America had done in 1789, ratifying the Constitution of the United States, and the related document, the Bill of Rights. Becoming aware of the US Constitution, and of the French Revolution, the people of Iran began to demand their own constitution.
Iran had two generational crisis civil wars during the 1900s, the second one being the Islamic revolution in 1979. But the first one was the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-09.
The Tobacco Revolt provided a template to the public in 1905, when there were protests over an increase in the price of sugar. The government blamed the sugar merchants, and several sugar merchants were beaten and tortured. A leading preacher and radical constitutionalist, Seyyed Jamal al-Din Isfahani attacked the government from the pulpit, leading to public protests, especially from students, merchants and shopkeepers.
By January 1906, the Shah agreed to the public demands, including formation of a house of justice, or consultative assembly. The Shah did not follow up on his promises, leading to a confrontation involving a group of clerics and their students in which a student was killed. This triggered wider protests, with over 12,000 protesters demanding the formation of a majlis, or parliament. The first majlis convened in October 1906 and set about the task of writing a constitution. An ailing Shah decreed the document they produced into law in December 1906, a few days before his death.
The Shah's son became the new Shah in January 1907. He was against the constitution of 1906 ratified during regime of his father. Iran was still under occupation of Russian forces in the north and British forces in the south, and both the Russian and British forces supported the Shah in opposing the constitution and the Majlis. On June 23, 1908, Russia's Cossack Brigade shelled and plundered the parliament building, executing several constitutionalist leaders. The Shah and the Cossack Brigade ruled until July 1909, when pro-Constitution forces marched from Iran's province of Azerbaijan to Tehran, defeating the Cossacks, deposing the Shah, and re-establishing the constitution.
That was the climax of Iran's Constitutional Revolution. So finally, over a century after America's written constitution and the French Revolution and its imposition of law, Iran had officially become a country ruled by law, not by leaders who are above the law.
They say that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Just as the Tobacco Revolt was a precursor to the Constitutional Revolution, the protests arising from the White Revolution of 1963 were the precursor to the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
The White Revolution was actually a government program instituted by the Shah. It included land reform, the nationalization of forests, the sale of state-owned enterprises to the private sector, a profit-sharing plan for industrial workers, and the formation of a Literacy Corps to eradicate illiteracy in rural areas. The White Revolution also granted Iranian women the right to vote, increased women’s minimum legal marriage age to 18, and improved women’s legal rights in divorce and child custody matters.
These reforms were opposed Iran’s clergy, in particular Ayatollah Khomeini. Khomeini led the June 5, 1963 uprising, opposing the Shah and the White Revolution. In the course of this uprising, the authorities quelled resistance among the religious students in a seminary in the city of Qum, and a number of students lost their lives. Khomeini’s activities eventually led to his exile to Iraq in 1964.
The protests of both the Tobacco Revolt and the White Revolution were led by élites. In 1890, the élites were the tobacco merchants. In 1962, it was religious leaders who feared that they would lose their influence and control over sectors of society where they were preeminent. Things like land reform, improving literacy through better education, and granting women additional rights could all be viewed as threatening to the clerics and imams and their areas of traditional authority.
The leader of the insurgents in Iran's 1979 civil war was Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had led the anti-government protests in the 1963 White Revolution, and ended up seeing hundreds of his followers killed, after which he was sent into exile by Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. When Khomeini made his triumphant return from 16 years of exile to Tehran on February 1, 1979, he was ready for revenge.
Khomeini had already gotten his revenge on the Shah. Although he had been in exile, he was able in 1978-79 to incite widespread anti-Shah uprisings based on discontent with a populist ideology tied to Islamic principles and calls for the overthrow of the Shah. The uprisings forced the Shah's government to collapse and, suffering from cancer, the Shah went into exile and left Iran on January 16, 1979. He lived in Egypt, Morocco, the Bahamas, and Mexico before going to the United States for treatment of lymphatic cancer, where he died.
Thousands of people were killed in Iran's civil war, including thousands who were jailed or executed by Khomeini. Khomeini claims that 60,000 people were killed. Here's a paragraph from the preamble to Khomeini's 1979 constitution:
"After slightly more than a year of continuous and unrelenting struggle, the sapling of the Revolution, watered by the blood of more than 60,000 martyrs and 100,000 wounded and disabled, not to mention billions of tumans' worth of property damage, came to bear fruit amidst the cries of "Independence! Freedom! Islamic government!" This great movement, which attained victory through reliance upon faith, unity, and the decisiveness of its leadership at every critical and sensitive juncture, as well as the self-sacrificing spirit of the people, succeeded in upsetting all the calculations of imperialism and destroying all its connections and institutions, thereby opening a new chapter in the history of all embracing popular revolutions of the world."
However, analysts outside of Iran question the 60,000 figure, and give much lower estimates of 3,000-4,000.
But that wasn't the end of it. Ayatollah Khomeini's bloodthirsty lusts reached a kind of peak in 1988 when he ordered the massacre of tens of thousands of political prisoners and political enemies, especially those in the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI or MEK). He issued this decree in July 1988:
"Whoever at any stage continues to belong to the PMOI must be executed. Annihilate the enemies of Islam immediately! ...Those who are in prisons throughout the country and remain steadfast in their support for PMOI are waging war on God and are condemned to execution…It is naive to show mercy to those who wage war on God."
That wasn't the end of it either. When students protested in 1999, Ayatollah Khamenei ordered huge, bloody massacres, rapes, torture, and other atrocities. The same happened in 2009, to students protesting the election.
The 1999 protests marked a major turning point in Iran's government, because it was the first time that it was clear that younger generations would not accept the extremist rule of Khamenei, and that the Great Islamic Revolution was a complete failure as an Islamic ideal, and instead was just another cheap, vicious dictatorship, led by an old geezer who has abandoned righteous Shia theology for bloody oppression.
Ever since the Constitutional Revolution, the people of Iran have demanded that their leaders follow the law, as defined in the constitution. Here's one more excerpt from Khomeini's 1979 constitution:
"Islamic Government is designed on a basis of "religious guardianship" as put forward by Imam Khomeini at the height of the intense emotion and strangulation (felt) under the despotic regime. This created a specific motivation and new field of advance for the Muslim people; and opened up the true path for the religious fight of Islam, pressing forward the struggle of the committed Muslim combatants, inside and outside the country. ...The publication by the [Reza Shah] regime on [January 7, 1978] of the letter which insulted the sacred order of the clergy, and in particular the Imam Khomeini, hastened this movement. It caused the people's anger to explode all over the country. In an effort to control this volcano of popular anger, the regime tried to suppress the protest uprising by bloodshed. This very fact set more blood pulsing through the veins of the Revolution. Continuing revolutionary passion at the time of the seven-day and forty-day commemoration of the martyrs of the Revolution, added on an ever-increasing scale to the vitality and ardor and fervent unity of the movement throughout the country. It continued and extended the people's upheaval in all the country's organizations by a general strike and joining in street demonstrations while actively seeking the downfall of the despotic regime. Widespread co-operation of men and women of all classes, and of religious and political groups, in this struggle, took place in decisive and dramatic fashion In particular women joined openly on all the scenes of this great Holy War, ever more actively and extensively. Such a scene would be a mother with a child in her bosom hastening to the battlefield and facing machine gun fire This large section of society took a main and decisive part in the struggle."
Reading this excerpt from Khomeini's own 1979 constitution makes it clear that he has a great deal to fear. Iran is coming full circle. The students and merchants of today have read the constitution, and are following its prescriptions -- popular anger, uprisings, strikes, street demonstrations, even facing gun fire -- while actively seeking the downfall of this new despotic regime. It's something that Khomeini himself should have predicted. Homa Katouzian and Iran's Constitution
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jun-18 World View -- Massive Tehran riots strike deep into Iran government's legitimacy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Jun-2018)
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Jordan says it can't host a new wave of refugees from Syria
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As we reported three days ago, the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has begun an assault on the southwestern province Daraa, which is on the border with Jordan.
There's also an expectation that it will soon be followed by another assault, this time on the southwestern province Quneitra, which is on the border with Israel-controlled Golan Heights.
On Saturday overnight, Russian warplanes joined the effort, and began bombing towns in Daraa with dozens of airstrikes. The warplanes had apparently come from the Russian-operated Hmeimim airbase in coastal Syria.
The attacks on Daraa are violations of the "de-escalation zones" agreement, based on last year's peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan. The peace talks were between Russia, Iran and Turkey, but they always were a big joke, to be used as a cover for Shia/Alawite al-Assad to continue his genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni civilians in Syria. The agreement named four de-escalation zones where there were supposed to be ceasefires, but Syria and Russia never had any intention of honoring the ceasefire, and would resume ethnic cleansing as soon as it was convenient to do so.
The ceasefire in each zone would be overseen by one nation, and apparently the US became the overseer for the southwestern zone, because nobody wanted to trust any Syrian, Iranian or Russian forces near the border with Israel.
So now that Syria and Russia have thoroughly violated the other de-escalation zones, it's the turn of the southwestern de-escalation zone. The US State Dept. last week threatened "serious repercussions" for violation of the de-escalation zone, without specifying what those repercussions might be. However, on Sunday, the US sent a message to Syrian rebel factions that they should not expect US military support, and "you should not base your decisions on the assumption or expectation of a military intervention by us." Whether that represents a brand new example of the US setting a red line and then refusing to enforce it is up to the perception of the observer. Times of Israel and Al-Arabiya (Riyadh) and Middle East Eye
Daraa province lies along the border with Jordan and there have already been reports last week that tens of thousands of people are fleeing the violence, running south into Jordan to escape the bombing.
However, Jordan on Sunday said that is unable to host a new wave of Syrian refugees. According to the United Nations, some 650,000 Syrian refugees have registered with them in Jordan since the Syrian war began seven years ago. Jordan itself estimates the actual number is closer to 1.3 million people and says it has spent more than $10 billion hosting them.
Jordan's government spokesman Jumana Ghanimat said on Sunday:
"The large number of Syrians we’re hosting in terms of financial resources and infrastructure does not allow for the reception of a new wave of asylum seekersJordan has not and will not abandon its humanitarian role and its commitment to international charters, but it has exceeded its ability to absorb (more refugees). Everyone should cooperate to deal with any new wave of displacement within Syria’s borders."
She added that Jordan would work with “concerned organisations” to find an arrangement for the displaced inside Syria. Middle East Eye and Al-Arabiya (Riyadh)
Although the full-scale assaults by Syrian and Russian forces on Daraa province have not yet reached Quneitra province, which is on the border with Israel-controlled Golan Heights, it's expected that they will do so soon.
In anticipation of artillery and airstrikes in Quneitra, thousands of Syrians have fled villages to makeshift camps near the border with Israel. It's believed that Syrian artillery will avoid shelling near the border, to avoid provoking a military response by Israel.
There are supposed to be peacekeeping forces inside Syria along the border with Israel. This was set up in 1974 following the 1973 Yom Kippur war. The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) would have 1,250 peacekeepers.
Following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, and after a contingent of 22 peacekeepers from the Philippines were kidnapped and held for three days by a group affiliated with Islamic State in 2013, much of the UNDOF contingent moved to the Israeli side of the border, where they've been less effective. With tensions growing on the Syrian side of the border, Israel has requested that they move back to that side, but they are reluctant to do so.
During the last few days, Syrian forces have taken control of an abandoned United Nations peacekeeping post in the no-man’s land between the Israeli and Syrian areas of the Golan Heights. The post, abandoned by UNDOF troops on the Golan, is meant to be free of both Israeli and Syrian troops, according to the cessation of hostilities agreement between the two countries that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War. UNDOF has identified ongoing infrastructure work at the site.
In addition to a renewed military threat from Syrian forces, and possible Iranian or Hezbollah forces embedded within them, there's also the possibility of thousands of Syrian refugees crossing the border into Israel, just as is happening along the border with Jordan. Reuters and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel and United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jun-18 World View -- Concerns grow in Israel over Syrian and Russian assaults on Daraa and Quneitra provinces thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Jun-2018)
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New Ethiopia reforms face opposition by hardliners
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmediat barely escaped a grenade attack, just after finishing a speech deliver to tens of thousands of supporters in the capital city Addis Ababa. One of the people at the rally threw the grenade at Abiy, but missed the target.
According to one report, Abiy was saved because another participant in the audience touched the hand of the person throwing the grenade, causing it to fall without reaching the stage.
At least one person died from the explosion, and 155 people were injured, including nine in critical condition.
Abiy was selected to take office in April in order to end growing massive street protests by the Oromo tribe, protesting marginalization inflicted by the governing Tigrays. The Tigrays have been in power for 27 years, but comprise only 6% of the population. The Oromos, who comprise 34% of the population, have suffered discrimination and marginalization.
Mass anti-government protests began in Ethiopia in 2015, beginning in the Oromia region, and then spread to other parts of Ethiopia, especially the Amhara region. The Amharas comprise another 27% of the population, and they joined the protests demanding an end to human rights abuses as well political reforms and greater freedoms. In the government crackdown, hundreds of people were killed, and more than 20,000 others were arrested.
By February of this year, the growing protests seemed to be overwhelming, and prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn abruptly resigned, citing ongoing "unrest and a political crisis." The dominant Tigrays took the desperate step of replacing Hailemariam with the Oromo leader Abiy Ahmediat, 42, in the hope of ending the chaos and bloodshed. BBC and Reuters and AP
Since being inaugurated, Abiy has been extremely aggressive in implementing a number of reforms, including the following:
Six people have been arrested following Saturday's grenade attack, but no motive has been identified.
According to Ryan Cummings, a South Africa based security analyst:
"The grenade attack in Addis may be well linked to hardliners who do not want to see dialogue and conciliation with Eritrea. However, it may also be in response to perceived Tigrayan marginalization and/or dissent within the military. Either way, it shows that the reforms are not window dressing."
Any of the reforms listed above might have infuriated some people, especially ethnic Tigrays, who have been in power for 27 years, but are only 6% of the population. For example, replacing key generals would have struck at the heart of the army's control of the population. The economic liberalization, including selling off state-owned assets, could have cost Tigray executives a great deal of money, and led to violent retaliation.
The deal with Eritrea could be particularly troubling, since it calls for an exchange of regions of land. These regions are small compared to the sizes of the two countries, but they're densely populated. This means that many people living in Eritrea will suddenly be living in Ethiopia, and vice-versa. This has many implications -- changing tax collections and administrative rules, and splitting families and neighbors, for example.
As I described in my 2016 Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea, Ethiopia is a Christian country, and Eritrea is a Muslim countries. Eritrea was an Italian colony in the 1800s, and both were in the late 1930s as "Italian East Africa." Eritrea declared independence from Ethiopia in 1993, leading to the 1998-2000 border war, which led to the peace agreement that is now being considered for implementation. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia is in a generational Awakening era, like America and Europe in the 1960s, or like Iran today, when mass protests are a frequent feature. Mass protests can end temporarily, or cab be suppressed by violence from the security forces, but they return.
The appointment of Oromo leader Abiy Ahmediat has put an end to the massive protests by Oromos, but even with an Oromo leader, protests by Oromos will return.
Abiy vows that the reforms will continue, despite Saturday's explosion. Guardian (London) and Al-Jazeera and Addis (Ababa) Standard and Committee to Protect Journalists
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jun-18 World View -- Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmediat escapes grenade attack at massive rally thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Jun-2018)
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European Union very badly split on migration as Sunday's summit approaches
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Both the United States and the European Union are in the midst of total political chaos over the issue of migration, and are desperately looking for ways to slow the potentially massive flood of migrants from Central America and Africa, as we described a couple of days ago.
In America, the administration has been experimenting with abandoning its "catch and release" program and keeping illegal immigrants in detention centers. This continues to be a massively divisive issue, especially related to the question of separating children from their parents. But there has been no clear statement that this will work, especially as courts and detention centers become flooded and overcrowded.
The Council of the European Union is considering a similar idea, though implemented differently. Migrants would be kept in detention centers, but the centers would not be on European Union soil. Instead, they would be in so-called "Disembarkation Platforms" that would be located in non-EU countries.
According to the EU draft document
"1. The European Council reconfirms that a precondition for a functioning EU policy on migration is effective control of the external borders. Since 2015 a number of measures have been put in place to achieve that objective. As a result, the number of detected illegal border crossings into the EU has been brought down by 95% from its peak in October 2015.2. The European Council is determined to continue and reinforce this policy to prevent a return to the uncontrolled flows of 2015 and to further reduce illegal immigration on all routes. Specifically as regards the Central Mediterranean route, efforts to stop smugglers operating out of Libya should be further intensified. The EU will continue to stand by Italy in this respect, and will step up its support for the Libyan Coastguard, coastal and Southern communities, humane reception conditions, and voluntary humanitarian returns. ...
4. In order to establish a more predictable framework for dealing with those who nevertheless set out to sea and are rescued in Search And Rescue Operations, the European Council supports the development of the concept of regional disembarkation platforms in close cooperation with UNHCR and IOM. Such platforms should provide for rapid processing to distinguish between economic migrants and those in need of international protection, and reduce the incentive to embark on perilous journeys."
Since there is no firm proposal, but only a draft document, possible hosting countries for these disembarkation platforms have not been officially named. However, unnamed EU officials have said that Albania (which is a European country but not a European Union count) and Tunisia have been suggested.
However, in response to a query about whether Albania would be a host, the European Council responded, "No. The regions are not yet identified as we are only talking about possibly exploring this concept."
Tunisia has already rejected a similar proposal when it was made a few months ago. Tunisia's ambassador said:
"The proposal was put to the head of our government a few months ago during a visit to Germany, it was also asked by Italy, and the answer is clear: no!We have neither the capacity nor the means to organize these detention centers. We are already suffering a lot from what is happening in Libya, which has been the effect of European action."
African countries that might serve as hosts include Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Niger and Morocco. However, Dimitris Avramopoulos, the European commissioner for migration, said that no African country has yet agreed to host migration center. Politico (EU) and European Council Draft Proposal (PDF) and Balkan Insight and Guardian (London)
UPDATE: A leaked plan by the US Navy reveals plans to construct sprawling detention centers for tens of thousands of immigrants on military bases in California, Alabama and Arizona. Time
Italy and Malta are refusing to take in 226 migrants on the Mediterranean rescue ship Lifeline, thus precipitating the in a continuing series of crises in Europe on migration. As of Friday evening, the Lifeline is stranded in the middle of the Mediterranean with no place to go.
Italy asked Malta to take in the Lifeline migrants. Malta refused, saying that it was too small a country to handle a large number of migrants. Italy said that Malta's response was "inhumane."
The EU has called for an emergency mini-summit meeting to be held in Brussels tomorrow (Sunday, June 24) to find a way to handle the migration issue, in advance of a major EU summit to be held on June 28-29.
However, Sunday's mini-summit became controversial almost as soon as it was announced. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte had indicated that he wouldn't be attending, but he agreed to attend after Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to him and apparently begged him to attend.
However, other anti-immigrant states including the Visegrad Group (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) are staying away from Sunday's meeting.
At a Visegrad meeting in Budapest on Thursday Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated that "we don't belong to this migrant-loving group of friends." That's an interesting statement, since it sounds like he's saying, "We don't belong to the European Union."
Even if Italy is represented at the meeting, the country's new far-right interior minister Matteo Salvini has said that Italy will not be pushed around anymore.
Angela Markel is facing the collapse of her governing coalition, and with it her entire government, unless she can come up with an EU agreement within seven days -- and in particular, an agreement with Italy.
The crucial issue is that Merkel's political opponent, Horst Seehofer, is demanding that Germany not take in any more migrants, or, if a new migrant arrives, he be sent back to the first EU country he entered. This is completely unacceptable to Italy, since that the migrants that come from Africa would almost always be sent back to Italy.
Horst Seehofer is not only the leader of the other party in Merkel's governing coalition, he's also Germany's Interior Minister. Seehofer has to power to issue an executive order that rejects refugees at the Germany border, and he's making preparations to issue that order, which is opposed by Merkel.
If Merkel fails to reach an agreement at next week's EU summit, then Seehofer will issue the executive order. That will be in direct conflict with Merkel's policy, so Merkel will have to fire Seehofer as Interior Minister. That will cause the governing coalition to collapse.
Whether or not Merkel's government collapses, the EU will face an existential crisis this summer if, as expected, hundreds of thousands of migrants cross the Mediterranean to reach Europe. Italy will not permit rescue ships to disembark, meaning that these ships will then head for France, Spain and Holland. In addition, Italy's new government wants to deport half a million undocumented migrants, many of whom are housed in squalid reception centers. More than 600,000 have reached Italy from Libya in the past four years. Euro News and BBC and AFP and Euro Intelligence
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jun-18 World View -- Desperate European Union considers 'Disembarkation Platforms' for migrants thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Jun-2018)
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Fears grow of Syrian army advance into Quneitra province
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The long-awaited assault by the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on the southwestern province of Daraa appears to have begun on Thursday. According to Syrian state media, the Syrian army "carried out concentrated bombardments on dens and fortified positions of Jabhat al-Nusra terrorist organization and the affiliated groups in the northern and northeastern countryside of Daraa."
Al-Assad considers all the people living in Daraa to be "terrorists," even the women and children. Al-Assad has used an increasingly common way of committing ethnic cleansing and genocide. After brutal attacks on peaceful Sunni protesters in 2011, as soon as even one Sunni activist uses violence to get revenge, al-Assad has declared that millions of Sunnis are all "terrorists," and he uses that as an excuse to conduct ethnic cleansing and genocide. In the past, al-Assad attacked even women and children in Aleppo, Homs and Ghouta with barrel bombs, chlorine and Sarin gas, and now he's turning his attention to Daraa. According to reports, the Syrian army has assembled a large force, including tens of thousands of soldiers and more than 100 tanks.
Daraa province lies along the border with Jordan. Tens of thousands of people are fleeing the area, running south into Jordan to escape the bombing. Jordan is already hosting 650,000 refugees from the Syrian war, and is already in economic distress.
So far, the Syrian army has not started a ground offensive, but that could change at any time.
The US State Department quickly denounced the Syrian action, accusing them of violating a previous agreement that Daraa province part of a "de-escalation zone" which is supposed to recognize a ceasefire:
"The United States remains deeply troubled by reports of increasing Syrian regime operations in southwest Syria within the boundaries of the de-escalation zone negotiated between the United States, Jordan, and the Russian Federation last year and reaffirmed between Presidents Trump and Putin in Da Nang, Vietnam in November. Syrian regime military and militia units, according to our reports, have violated the southwest de-escalation zone and initiated airstrikes, artillery, and rocket attacks.The United States continues to warn both the Russian government and the Assad regime of the serious repercussions of these violations and demands that Russia restrain pro-regime forces from further actions within the southwest de-escalation zone. During their call this weekend, Secretary Pompeo stressed to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov the critical nature of mutual adherence to this arrangement and the unacceptable nature of any unilateral activity by the Assad regime or Russia. The United States expects all parties to respect the ceasefire, protect civilian populations, and avoid broadening of the conflict. We remain committed to maintaining the stability of the southwest de-escalation zone and to the ceasefire underpinning it."
The US has threatened "serious repercussions" for violation of the de-escalation zone, without specifying what those repercussions might be. Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA, Damascus) and Arab News and US State Dept. and The National (UAE)
Al-Assad has vowed to recapture all of southwest Syria from the "terrorists," even though it's in a de-escalation zone. The actions taken so far in Daraa province, near the border with Jordan, have not evoked a strong response.
There is a great deal of concern, however, that the Syrian army will advance farther west from Daraa province in Quneitra province. Quneitra province borders the Israel-controlled Golan Heights, which is of much greater concern. From there, the Syrian army could attack targets in Israel, resulting in a larger war.
Israel has already made it clear that it will not tolerate Iranian or Hezbollah forces near the Golan border, and has previously targeted Iranian weapons systems and other Iranian targets approaching the border. Israel's willingness to tolerate Syrian forces near the border is ambiguous.
The pressure on Israel to respond is further complicated by the fact that the situation along the border with Gaza appears to be deteriorating rapidly, with Hamas and Islamic Jihad sending dozens of rockets and burning kites across the border into Israel.
There are also suggestions in Israeli media that soldiers in Syria's army are actually Hezbollah terrorists wearing Syrian uniforms. Whether this is paranoia or actually happening, there is clearly a perception that it's happening, and that's putting pressure on Israel to take military action in Daraa, Gaza or both. Al Masdar News (Damascus) and Israel National News and Debka (Israel)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jun-18 World View -- Thousands of Syrians flee into Jordan to escape bombing in Daraa thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Jun-2018)
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The increasing threat of 'unspeakable' violence from MS-13
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that nearly 69 million people worldwide were forcibly displaced from their home in 2017. The number of displaced people has set a new world record each year for the last five years.
Of the 69 million total, 16.2 million were newly displaced in 2017, or more than 44,000 people per day. The High Commissioner, Filippo Grandi, said:
"The global figure has gone up again by a couple of million. This is because of protracted conflicts and lack of solutions for those conflicts that continue, continuous pressure on civilians in countries of conflict that pushed them to leave their homes and new or aggravating crises, like the Rohingya crisis."
The Rohingya crisis refers to the genocide and ethnic cleansing occurring in Burma (Myanmar), which has driven 905,000 ethnic Rohingyas from their homes in Rakhine State into refugee camps in Bangladesh. That's the fifth worst refugee crisis in the world today.
In fourth place is Venezuela, with 1.5 million refugees. The Socialist government has almost completely destroyed Venezuela's economy, forcing 1.5 million people from their homes into neighboring countries. More than 600,000 people are newly displaced in neighboring Colombia, with an estimated 3,000 people crossing the border each day in search of basic essentials and new opportunity.
In third place is South Sudan, with 2.1 million refugees, which is the largest refugee crisis in Africa. More than 4 million people have been uprooted from their homes since the start of a brutal civil war in 2013, including 2.1 million people who have been forced to cross into neighboring countries, the majority of them women and children.
In second place is Afghanistan, with 2.5 million refugees, who have been forced to leave the country for Iran, Pakistan or Europe.
In first place, the biggest refugee crisis in the world, is Syria, with 5.6 million refugees, where president Bashar al-Assad uses barrel bombs laced with chlorine gas specifically targeting women and children, and also used Sarin gas to kill large numbers of civilians.
The number of displaced persons has been a record every year for the last five years, and this increasing trend line is expected to continue. CBS News and U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and Mercy Corps and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2004)
A new technique for committing ethnic cleansing and genocide is becoming increasingly common. The government violently attacks members of an ethnic or religious group, such as when they're peacefully protesting. Then when any members of the ethnic group react with violence to get revenge, then the government starts referring to millions of people in the ethnic group, including women and children, as "terrorists," and starts performing ethnic cleansing, forcing millions of people into neighboring countries. This is currently happening in Syria and Burma (Myanmar), and in Cameroon to a lesser extent.
The growing use of new techniques for committing ethnic cleansing and genocide is part of a global increase in violent wars. In 2004, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that the number of wars in the world was decreasing, and that 2003 had seen the fewest number of armed conflicts in 14 years, except for 1997. But since 2003, we've seen the number of armed conflicts increase, creating record numbers of displaced persons and refugees, overwhelming resources in many countries.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is what happens during a generational Crisis era, which began in 2003. A country enters a generational Crisis era when the survivors of the previous generational crisis war, in this case World War II, all disappear (retire or die). Examination of hundreds of examples throughout history shows that this happens 58 years after the end of the previous crisis war, and 2003 is 58 years after 1945, the end of World War II.
For years I've been writing how nationalism and xenophobia have been growing in Europe, America, and in countries around the world in a generational Crisis era. A related phenomenon is the overwhelming increase in migrants and refugees, which further stokes nationalism and xenophobia.
The same thing happened in the last generational Crisis era, in the 1930s. In July 1938, 32 nations met for a conference to address the problem of hundreds of thousands of German and Austria Jews who were fleeing Naziism, or whom Hitler was expelling. Hitler actually mocked the conference participants in a speech when he said, "I can only hope and expect that the other world which has felt such deep sympathy for these criminals will be generous enough to transform this pity into practical aid. As far as I am concerned we are ready to place our luxury ships at the disposal of these countries for the transportation of these criminals." In the end, Europe, North America and Australia refused to take on refugees, saying that their population "density" had reached a point of "saturation."
After the war, the Europeans signed the 1957 Treaty of Rome where, having suffered the devastation of two world wars and fearing a third, the European survivors saw as a major cause of those world wars the same nationalism and xenophobia that's increasingly prevalent today.
There are some countries today that are successfully hosting large numbers of refugees, according to UNHCR. For the fourth consecutive year in 2017, Turkey hosted the largest number of refugees worldwide, with 3.5 million people. It was followed by Pakistan (1.4 million), Uganda (1.4 million), Lebanon (998,900), Iran (979,400), Germany (970,400), Bangladesh (932,200) and Sudan (906,600).
However, many other countries become overwhelmed by the large number of refugees, and are taking political action to block the arrival of refugees and migrants. This has been true in the United States for years, and it's becoming the policies of an increasing number of "populist" elections in Europe, in countries such as Italy and Hungary.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these political attempts are futile. Even if some temporary solution could be found, the trend line of increasing migration is going to increase in this generational Crisis era, and any political solution that "solves" the problem this year will be overcome by more wars and new waves of migrants and refugees.
Although forced displacement is a global problem, UNHCR is expressing special alarm at the sharp rise in forced displacement in Central America.
More than 294,000 asylum seekers and refugees from the North of Central America were registered globally as of the end of 2017, an increase of 58 per cent from a year earlier. This is sixteen times more people than at the end of 2011.
The vast majority of those fleeing El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, are seeking refugee protection either to the north in Belize, Mexico and the United States, or (and increasingly) to the south in Costa Rica and Panama. Many are vulnerable women, or children either unaccompanied by or who have become separated from their families.
Of particular concern are MS-13 gangs in Central America traveling to the United States. A federal task force in Boston announced in January 2016 the dismantling of several local branches of the MS-13 street gang, including 56 gang members, a third of MS-13's Massachusetts membership.
Described by federal officials as being guilty of unspeakable violence and enormous cruelty, the gang targets middle and high schoolers for initiation, officials said, especially Chelsea, East Boston and Everett high schools. The initiation requires the student to commit crimes, and to become a full-fledged member requires the commission of a significant crime, usually the murder of a rival gang member.
According to a Francesca Fontanini, a Mexico-based UNHCR spokesman, refugees from Central America come to escape violence:
"The people who are coming are saying that the level of violence is brutal – they are basically confined to their own houses because there is a lack of freedom. It is very dangerous to go to school, to go to church, to move around. They are living in very traumatized and violent circumstances."
Unfortunately, if they become refugees in the United States, they're targeted by the same MS-13 gangs and the same brutal violence that they had hoped to escape from. UNHCR and Boston Globe (29-Jan-2016) and Boston Globe (29-Jan-2016) and Guardian (London, 22-May) and Institute for Research on Public Policy Policy (Canada)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jun-18 World View -- Europe and North America overwhelmed by growing migration crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(21-Jun-2018)
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United Nations renews its peace plan proposal
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The news agencies of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are reporting that troops from the Saudi-led military coalition have taken control of a large part of the airport in Yemen's port city of Hodeidah on Tuesday, recapturing it from Iran-backed Houthi rebels that have controlled the port since 2015.
This comes a week after the coalition began large-scale ground operations against the port city, supported by air and naval forces, as we described in "15-Jun-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen."
However, the road that leads from the airport to Hodeidah's city center is heavily populated, and there is still heavy ground fighting going on with the Houthis, with the coalition fighters supported by close air support from Apache helicopter gunships.
Capturing the airport is an important first step for the coalition in recapturing the port city, but a lot more is necessary. Hodeidah is densely population with around 600,000 people, and the Houthis are well entrenched within the population. It's feared that the urban house-to-house fighting will go on for months, just as we've already seen in the fights by Iraqi forces against ISIS in Mosul or the Kurdish YPG forces against ISIS in Raqqa in Syria. Similar urban fighting in Hodeidah could cost the lives of as many as 250,000 people, according to UN estimates.
It's not expected that the Saudi coalition will use the same tactics that Bashar al-Assad used in ejecting opposition rebels from Aleppo and Ghouta in Syria. Al-Assad used barrel bombs laced with chlorine gas specifically targeting women and children, and also used Sarin gas to kill large numbers of civilians. Even with the use of chemical weapons, those battles took several months. The National (UAE) and Reuters
The fear of casualties resulting from the Saudi coalition assault on Hodeidah goes far beyond the possible casualties in the port city itself. NGOs use the port to import badly need humanitarian aid, including food, water and medicines, for 8 million Yeminis, out of a total population of 22 million. Many Yemenis are already on the verge of starvation, and the closure of the port for even a few days could be disastrous.
Somewhat miraculously, the port remained open on Tuesday, and the UN World Food Program was able to unload three ships containing enough food for six million people for one month.
Under Houthi control, NGOs had been able to bring humanitarian supplies through Hodeidah port. However, the Houthis charged NGOs steep license fees to dock their ships, so the port has been a major source of income for the Houthis. Furthermore, the port has been a lifeline for the Houthis war supplies including, allegedly, weapons systems provided by Iran.
For those reasons, losing control of the port would be a major setback for the Houthis, and have a significant negative impact on their war effort.
In the last few weeks, the United Nations had proposed a peace plan where UN peacekeeping forces would take control of the port, so that the fighting between the Saudi coalition and the Houthis could stop. However, the Houthis rejected that peace proposal, since control of the port is essential to their war effort.
The Saudi coalition are now demanding that the Houthis must withdraw completely from Hodeidah and hand over control to the UN.
UN special envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, who has been in Yemen's capital city Sanaa negotiating with the Houthis, hopes to restart talks on a peace plan next month. Assuming that the Saudi coalition have control of the vital parts of Hodeidah, the hope is that the Houthis will yield control of the urban areas, rather than remain entrenched with a resulting bloodbath in urban fighting. Al-Jazeera and The National (UAE) and AFP
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jun-18 World View -- Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(20-Jun-2018)
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Israeli airstrike on Syria-Iraq border kills dozens of Shia militia fighters
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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An airstrike on Iraqi Shia militias on Sunday evening killed dozens of fighters supporting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The airstrike targeted a position in Syria's Deir az-Zour province, near the border with Iraq.
Syrian media blamed the US-led coalition for the airstrike. According to the report from Syrian media SANA, the fighters were from the regime army, and they were fighting ISIS:
"A military source said in a statement to SANA that the US-led coalition on Sunday targeted one of our military positions in the town of Al-Hiri, southeast of al-Boukamal city, leaving a number of martyrs and wounding other people. ...The coalition has been targeting the military positions in a desperate attempt to raise the collapsed morale of the terrorist organizations due to the achievements of the Syrian army.
The field reports confirm that Washington provides Daesh [ISIS] organization with various kinds of support to prevent its collapse and invest it to keep its forces illegally in the Syrian territory and steal the economic resources in the eastern region through its mercenaries of terrorist groups."
By Monday evening, numerous reports have come up describing errors in the SANA report, essentially making it "fake news."
Most important, the US-led coalition had conducted no airstrikes in the region on Sunday evening, and the US military repeatedly denied that the US coalition had anything to do with the airstrike.
Second, there have been reports that the most likely force behind the airstrikes was the Israeli military. Israel is refusing comment, but unnamed Israeli military sources are confirming this off the record.
Israel rarely comments on its airstrikes in Syria, but prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that Israel is "already taking action" against Iran in Syria:
"Over the weekend I spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. We discussed regional issues and focused -- of course -- on Syria.I reiterated our guiding principles regarding Syria. First of all, Iran needs to withdraw from all of Syria. Second, we will take action -- and are already taking action -- against efforts to establish a military presence by Iran and its proxies in Syria both close to the border and deep inside Syria. We will act against these efforts anywhere in Syria."
This statement by Netanyahu actually represents a bit of an expansion of previously announced policy. Previous policy indicated that Israeli airstrikes would be focused on southern Syria, along the border with the Israeli-governed Golan Heights. In Sunday's statement, Netanyahu made it clear that Israel will strike pro-Iranian targets anywhere in Syria. That statement clears up some confusion about whether Israel could have been responsible for the Sunday evening airstrike, whose target had been much deeper into Syria than previous Israeli airstrikes.
A final problem with the Sana story is that it wasn't clear about what forces the Israeli airstrikes were targeting. It has emerged that 40-50 militia fighters were killed, a combination of Syrian army forces, Iraqi Hezbollah forces, and Iran-backed members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMU) umbrella organization, which takes its orders from Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani. SANA (Damascus) and CNN and Debka (Israel) and Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Netanyahu's statement, quoted above, confirms something that's been increasingly clear for at least two years -- that Israel's alliance with Russia is growing, and that Russia is doing nothing to stop Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria.
That Russia's relationship with Israel is getting closer couldn't have been demonstrated more clearly than when Russia openly accepted Jerusalem as Israeli's capital and on June 14 attended a celebration of Russia's Independence Day at a reception being held in Jerusalem.
Russia, Iran and Turkey formed an alliance in 2015 to support al-Assad in Syria's civil war, with each one taking on a different "assignment." But it's always been fairly certain that once these "assignments" were completed, then there would be no one left for them to fight except each other, since they all had different objectives.
Russia's objective was to establish Russian military bases in Syria, and it has accomplished that with naval and air bases. Iran's objective was to establish its own bases in Syria, where they could be used to launch attacks on Israel. Russia does not want Iran to have bases in Syria, and more important, Russia does not want a full-scale war between Iran and Israel.
Iran does have thousands of trainers, advisors, technicians and other support specialists to make the Syrian Army and their Iranian allies. According to one estimate, Iran supervises over 50,000 mercenary forces in Syria, mainly Shias from Afghanistan and Lebanon. As we reported in 2015, al-Assad's army was near collapse, and was saved only through the intervention of Russian bombers and Iranian mercenaries.
As the role of the Iranian mercenaries winds down, Russia is demanding that "all foreign troops" (except themselves) leave Syria. Of course this is nominally directed at the Americans and Turks, but it's also directed at the Iranians. One thing most everyone can agree on, including most European and Middle Eastern nations, is that Iran should get out of Syria. Until that happens, the chances of a war between Israel and Iran in Syria will continue to grow. Al-Monitor and Strategy Page (12-June) and Spectator (UK) and Media Line
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jun-18 World View -- Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(19-Jun-2018)
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Controversial one-sided UN report on Kashmir condemns India
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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India announced on Sunday that it would not renew a month-old unilateral ceasefire in the Indian-controlled portions of Jammu and Kashmir. Instead, it will resume military operations against rebels whom it considers to be terrorists or suspected terrorists.
India had halted military operations on May 16, which was the start of the Ramadan, the annual Muslim fasting month. Jammu and Kashmir are Muslim-majority regions, and it was hoped that the ceasefire gesture would bring an end to the violence between Hindus and Muslims in Kashmir. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, such an outcome was 100% impossible.
Home Minister Rajnath Singh said:
"While the security forces have displayed exemplary restraint during this period, the terrorists have continued with their attacks, on civilians and SFs (security forces), resulting in deaths and injuries.The security forces are being directed to take all necessary actions as earlier to prevent terrorists from launching attacks and indulging in violence."
The decision not to extend the ceasefire was made on Friday, during a high-level government meeting in New Delhi. The debate was won by the side opposing an extension because anti-government violence continued as usual during the month-long ceasefire, especially the assassination of veteran journalist Shujaat Bukhari and his two security guards on June 14. Bukhari was well-known as editor of the newspaper Rising Kashmir. The Hindu and AFP and Deccan Herald (India) and BBC
A report by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (ONCHR) condemns India's actions in Jammu and Kashmir as human rights violations.
The UN report describes the same sequence of events that I've been reporting on for two years. On July 8 2016, Burhan Wani, 22, the leader of anti-Indian separatist organization Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed in a gunfight with the Indian Army. This triggered massive anti-Indian protests and clashes with Indian police that killed 36 and left thousands injured.
These clashes continued into the fall, and then resumed again in the Spring of 2017. In all the clashes, Indian police responded with rubber bullets, leaving thousands of protesters wounded or killed or blinded by pellets.
The UN report described these incidents, but is rejected by India amid claims that the report is one-sided, and does not document the activities of Pakistan-supported terrorist groups in Kashmir.
However, the report is not completely silent on these terrorist groups. According to the UN report:
Since the late 1980s, a variety of armed groups has been actively operating in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, and there has been documented evidence of these groups committing a wide range of human rights abuses, including kidnappings, killings of civilians and sexual violence. The landscape of armed intervention by groups operating in Indian-Administered Kashmir has shifted over the years. In the 1990s, around a dozen significant armed groups were operating in the region; currently, less than half that number remain active. The main groups today include Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen and Harakat Ul-Mujahidin; they are believed to be based in Pakistan-Administered Kashmir. Hizbul Mujahideen is also part of the United Jihad Council, which began as a coalition of 14 armed groups in 1994, claiming to be fighting Indian rule in Kashmir, that was allegedly formed by Pakistan’s defence establishment. Despite the Government of Pakistan’s assertions of denial of any support to these groups, experts believe that Pakistan’s military continues to support their operations across the Line of Control in Indian-Administered Kashmir. Three of these armed groups (Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Harakat Ul-Mujahidin) are listed on the Security Council “ISIL (Da’esh) & Al-Qaida Sanctions List” for their activities in Indian-Administered Kashmir among other places."
It's true that the accusations of Pakistan-supported terrorism in Kashmir are far more tentative than the accusations of human rights violations by Indian security forces. But nobody escapes condemnation in this report.
As I described in the past, India's last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, and the 1947 Partition war that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan and Kashmir are now in a new generational Crisis era, and headed for another war, re-fighting the 1947 Partition war. No Ramadan ceasefire has any chance of preventing this. UN OHCHR - Kashmir report and New Indian Express and Dawn (Pakistan) and Human Rights Watch
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jun-18 World View -- India cancels ceasefire in Kashmir after one month thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(18-Jun-2018)
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As Aquarius migrants head for Spain, Spain rescues 900 more
migrants from Mediterranean
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Spain's new prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, offered to take in 629 migrants who are on board the rescue ship Aquarius, as we described early last week, after both Italy and Malta refused to allow the vessel to dock in their ports.
That was after Italy's new interior minister, Matteo Salvini, had refused to allow the Aquarius to dock at an Italian port to allow the migrants to disembark, which had been the practice for several years.
The NGOs SOS Méditerranée and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors Without Borders) were concerned that if the Aquarius had to stay at sea for three or four more days to travel an additional 1,300 km to reach Spain, then the delay would be dangerous to the migrants, many of whom were ill and had come close to drowning when their rubber dinghies sank before the migrants were rescued by the Aquarius.
Nonetheless, the Aquarius began its journey to Valencia, Spain. In order to relieve the suffering on the Aquarius, Maltese and Italian navy ships resupplied the Aquarius with bottles of water, food packages and clothing for the 1,300km voyage. Furthermore, in an ironic twist, two Italian naval and coastguard vessels took on board 400 of the 629 migrants to relieve overcrowding, and now all three boats are expected to arrive in Valencia on Sunday.
Pope Francis had condemned Italy's decision to block the ship from port, denouncing acts that make the Mediterranean into "an anonymous grave." According to the Pope:
"The Aquarius, has been like a slap that has shaken our consciences and has put us on our feet to attend to those who knock at the door of the heart and the collective conscience of peoples and nations. And they call upon people of good will, and above all they call upon the humanitarian and Christian conscience."
The people of Valencia, Spain, are reportedly ready to welcome the migrants with food and shelter. Cardinal Antonio Cañizares of Valencia, after meeting with the pope, sent a message to the entire archdiocese of Valencia, said that the pope has thanked the diocese of Valencia for its generation. Cañizares quoted the pope as telling him:
"This is the path, don’t ever abandon it: that of charity; remain steady in charity, in the good example, in the light and the good taste of charity and works of charity. The pope is with you, with the diocese of Valencia."
After the migrants dock in Valencia, they will receive assistance and, eventually, be distributed across Spain.
In addition to the Aquarius, Spain's own vessels are rescuing hundreds of migrants in the Mediterranean. Spain’s coast guard rescued 933 migrants and found four dead bodies in the Mediterranean Friday and Saturday. The rescues were from dozens of small dinghies in the Gibraltar strait, and in the Alboran Sea, between northeastern Morocco and southeastern Spain.
Spain's new Socialist government, led by prime minister Pedro Sánchez, has taken up the cause of the migrants' plight to demonstrate its commitment to protecting human rights and respecting international law. He can take that position when only a few hundred migrants are involved, but he may have to change his mind if there are tens or hundreds of thousands. Reuters and Crux Now and AP and Reuters
Italy’s new interior minister Matteo Salvini, who leads the far-right anti-immigrant party La Lega, doubled down on Saturday on his policy:
"Italy no longer wants to be an accomplice of human traffickers and contribute to the business of illegal immigration."
He said that in the course of blocking two additional NGO-operated ships flying Dutch flags, the Lifeline and Seefuchs. An NGO worker on one of the vessels posted a tweet referring to Salvini as a "fascist," though the tweet was taken down soon after. Salvini responded, "As a father and as a minister, they can attack and threaten me all they want, but I won’t give up and I’m doing it for everybody’s sake."
In fact, a recent poll shows that Salvini's anti-immigration policy is extremely popular, with 59% of Italians favoring it.
Furthermore, Italy's policies are achieving their goals, in that the number of people leaving Libya for Italy, 22,000 so far this year, is down an enormous 70% from the same period last year. The number that actually reach Italy is down even further, because Libya's coast guard is also performing rescue missions, and returning the migrants they rescue to Libyan soil, where they're put into brutal detention centers.
This is the result of an EU policy adopted last year, led by Italy's government, to revive Libya's coast guard. The Libyan coast guard had fallen into disrepair after the death in 2011 of dictator Muammar Gaddafi. But Italy has worked with officials in Libya to allow the Libyan coast guard to perform a large portion of the sea rescues.
This has created a competition between the NGOs and the Libyan coast guard, when they both arrived at the same scene with migrants in rubber dinghies facing drowning. In one instance, 20 migrants drowned in competition between an NGO and the Libya coast guard, competing to save dozens of migrants.
The result is that among the nine most prominent NGO rescue organizations, three have stopped or suspended their operations over the past year. A spokesman for the Aquarius says, "We will not enter into a battle with the Libyan coast guard, where people are armed." Instead, the Aquarius will stay on the horizon, watching from several miles away. "We had this situation several times, where we had to look completely helpless."
There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here. As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people.
So in the current situation, it's not Matteo Salvini who is making the decisions to adopt anti-immigrant policies. Salvini's policies have a 59% approval rating, and it's doubtful that he could implement any of them if their approval rating were only 30%. It's the people of Italy who are deciding these policies, first by electing MPs from Salvini's party, and then by approving of his policies.
Most people, even the most hard-hearted Scrooges, would say that they would like to see migrants, especially women and children, sheltered and fed, provided that it didn't cost anything. But the irony is that the humanitarian system that protects migrants, and feeds and shelters them, can get overwhelmed, and the costs become overwhelming as well, and that's the reason why voters turn against that humanitarian system. As Karl Marx might say, the humanitarian system contains the seeds of its own destruction.
The issue of migration is dealing one blow after another to the unity of the European Union. A lot of the motivation for Britain's affirmative vote on the Brexit referendum was to keep migrants out -- although I always like to point out many of the migrants that the British wish to keep out are not Muslims but are Christians from Eastern Europe, just as many Americans wish to keep out Christians from Latin America. Migration is far from being just a religious issue.
Germany's Angela Merkel has been widely condemned for her decision, in 2015, to encourage Syrian refugees to come to Germany. Her decision was based on the founding principles of the European Union and the 1957 Treaty of Rome where, having suffered the devastation of two world wars and fearing a third, the European survivors saw as a major cause of those world wars the same nationalism and xenophobia that's increasingly prevalent today.
Merkel's government may not survive the next two weeks. Merkel is now facing an open revolt from her own interior minister, Horst Seehofer. Seehofer wants Germany to adopt a policy to unilaterally to send back migrants who have registered in other European Union countries, which would amount to a rejection of all migrants into Germany. However, Merkel is standing her ground, saying, "This is a European challenge that also needs a European solution. And I view this issue as decisive for keeping Europe together." The MPs may not agree. Politico (EU) and Guardian (London) and Washington Post and Reuters
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jun-18 World View -- Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Jun-2018)
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Amnesty report documents increasing violence on both sides
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Cameroon's public relations (communications) minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary is condemning as "crude lies" an Amnesty International report accusing government security forces of summary killings, arrests and property destruction that amounts to ethnic cleansing.
As I've reported many times, the atrocities described in the report began in November 2016, when the Francophone (French-speaking) Cameroon government security forces began beating and killing peaceful anti-government demonstrators in the South Cameroons, the Anglophone (English-speaking) regions of Cameroon. The demonstrators were protesting systematic bias, discrimination and marginalization towards Anglophones by the Francophone government. For example, schoolteachers in the Anglophone regions were forbidden from teaching any courses in English.
The Cameroon government, led by the 85 year old president Paul Biya, has stepped up the torture, slaughter and other atrocities continually since then, with numerous videos and reports on social media documenting the atrocities. The level of atrocities ticked up considerably in October, when the Anglophone separatists demanded independence for the Southern Cameroons, calling it Ambazonia. This week, there has emerged a new video purporting to show Francophone soldiers forcing Anglophone teenage girls to crawl through mud in front of the Cameroon Protestant College, as the men jeer at the girls and refer to them as Ambazonians.
Last month when Peter Henry Barlerin, the US ambassador to Cameroon, said that "there have been targeted killings, detentions without access to legal support, family, or the Red Cross, and burning and looting of villages," Biya's spokesman Issa Tchiroma Bakary, said, "We do not accept the infantilization of the Cameroonian nation."
So after this week's Amnesty International report, this same spokesman Bakary said:
"[The report] is stuffed with crude lies, hasty deductions (and) slanderous, unacceptable maneuvering, which are part of a strategy of harassment and destabilization of our country in its fight against the terrorist threat."
That's how things are done these days. A country leader starts by massacring, raping, arresting, torturing, and slaughtering peaceful protesters of a particular class or ethnic group, and then when any one of them strikes back, then call them "terrorists" and perform genocide and ethnic cleansing on the whole groups. That's what Bashar al-Assad has been doing in Syria, and that's what Burma's leaders have been doing to the Rohingyas in Burma. If somebody complains, then the leader's trolls say that "no evidence exists" of atrocities. AFP and Bareta News (includes video) and SCBC TV (Ambazonia)
There are increasing reports that the Anglophones are forming their own army called the Ambazonia Defense Forces, with about 1,500 people spread around 20 camps in the Anglophone regions. In most cases, the people are farmers who had been forced to leave their villages, armed with hunting rifles that are made in Nigeria.
The Amnesty report that the government calls "crude lies" is based on interviews with over 150 victims and eye-witnesses. The burning of villages and other ethnic cleansing can be seen in satellite images.
The report documents how Cameroon's Francophone military responded responded to the Anglophone demonstrations:
"Cameroon’s military has responded to these protests with arbitrary arrests, torture, unlawful killings and destruction of property. In one striking incident, satellite images and other photographic evidence obtained by Amnesty International show the complete destruction of the village of Kwakwa, which was burned to the ground by Cameroonian security forces following an operation conducted in December 2017 in connection with the killing of two gendarmes by suspected armed separatists.In some cases, following these security operations, people were arbitrarily arrested and tortured while detained in illegal detention facilities and in secret. For instance, at least 23 people, including minors, were arrested by the security forces in the village of Dadi on 13 December 2017 and spent three days in incommunicado detention. They told Amnesty International that during this time security forces tortured them to extract “confessions”, to force them to admit having supported the separatists.
Victims described being blindfolded and severely beaten with various objects including sticks, ropes, wires and guns, as well as being electrocuted and burnt with hot water. Some were beaten until they lost consciousness, and Amnesty International documented that at least one person has died in custody."
Ambazonian separatists have been increasingly attacking Cameroon security personally. Between September 2017 and May 2018, at least 44 members of the security forces were killed in attacks at checkpoints, in the streets, or on their duty stations in the Anglophone region.
"Towards the end of 2017, the situation quickly deteriorated. In October, demonstrations organized across the Anglophone regions to celebrate the symbolic independence from the country's French-speaking areas were met with unlawful and excessive and deadly force. Cameroonian security forces shot dead 20 peaceful protesters, by firing indiscriminately on crowds, including from helicopters. Dozens of wounded protesters ran away from hospitals in mid-treatment out of fear of being arrested. Hundreds were arrested, and thousands fled their homes, becoming internally displaced or refugees in Nigeria. ...Armed separatists have attacked security forces, especially gendarmes and police, killing at least 44 of them between September 2017 and May 2018, in both the North West and South West regions. In one of the most recent attacks, on 1 February 2018, in the locality of Mbingo, in the North West region, two gendarmes manning a checkpoint were stabbed to death by a group of young armed separatists.
Ordinary people have been targeted too. Teachers and students accused of not participating in the boycott have been physically assaulted, and at least 42 schools have been attacked by armed separatists from February 2017 to May 2018 in both the North West and South West regions. ...
In addition, armed separatists have attacked ordinary people – including traditional chiefs - perceived as being informants of the Cameroonian security forces."
Cameroon's last generational crisis war was the "UPC Revolt," 1956-1960, which was a bloody civil war by communists attacking the French government in the Cameroun colony. The outcome was independence in 1961, when the British Cameroons colony and the French Cameroun colony were merged into a single country, and the Anglophones became a disadvantaged and marginalized minority. Today, the Anglophone regions are known as the "Southern Cameroons."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, examination of hundreds of examples throughout history shows that 58 years after the end of a previous generational crisis war, the society or nation enters a generational Crisis era, and a new crisis war can begin, and becomes increasingly likely in each year after that. 58 years is the length of time before the generations that survived the previous crisis war and have personal memories of its atrocities disappear, either retiring or dying. After that, the younger generations are completely in control, and have no fear of another war.
The year 2018 is exactly 58 years after the end of the "UPC Revolt" civil war. That doesn't mean that a new civil war will begin this year, but it does mean that the probability of a new civil war is significantly higher than it was last year. The events in Cameroon in the last nine months show that Cameroon is certainly headed in that direction. Amnesty International and Radio France International
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jun-18 World View -- Cameroon condemns scathing Amnesty report on government atrocities thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Jun-2018)
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Houthis increase missile attacks on Saudi cities
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Large-scale ground operations, supported by the air and naval forces of the Saudi-led coalition, began to move in on Yemen's port city of Hodeidah on Tuesday, with the objective of regaining control of the city from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who captured it in 2015. The war in Yemen has been largely a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) versus Iran since it began in 2015.
The Hodeidah deep sea port on the Red Sea has become a crucial asset to the Houthi's war effort. NGOs use the port to import badly need humanitarian aid, including food, water and medicines, for 8 million Yeminis. The Houthis control these imports, and charge duties that fund their war efforts. Furthermore, the Houthis use the port to import Iranian weapons for the war effort.
The internationally recognized government of Yemen is led by President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who has been hiding out in Saudi Arabia because of the war with the Houthis. While the Houthis are backed by Iran, Hadi's government is backed by Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE).
According to a statement issued by Hadi earlier this week:
"The liberation of Hodeidah port is a turning point in our struggle to recapture Yemen from the militias that hijacked it to serve foreign agendas.The liberation of the port is the start of the fall of the Houthi militia and will secure marine shipping in Bab al-Mandab strait and cut off the hands of Iran, which has long drowned Yemen in weapons that shed precious Yemeni blood."
The Saudis are hoping that the recapture of Hodeidah will force the Houthis to sue for peace in the proxy war. However, many others aren't so sure, as numerous previous Saudi predictions of an end to the war have turned out to be false.
The great fear is that the urban fighting in Hodeidah will be a new catastrophe, in a repeat of the kinds of assaults that Bashar al-Assad conducted in Syria's cities of Aleppo and Ghouta. In fact, the assault on Hodeidah may have to go on for weeks or months, just like the assaults on Aleppo and Ghouta. According to Lise Grande, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen:
"A military attack or siege on Hodeidah will impact hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. In a prolonged worst case, we fear that as many as 250,000 people may lose everything - even their lives."
In fact, the ground forces being used by the Saudis have little experience in urban fighting. They consist of Emirati and Sudanese forces, as well as a combination of Yemeni groups -- some loyal to President Abdo Mansour al Hadi, others loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and some advocates of Southern Yemen secession.
The fact that they include militias loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh has some significance. Saleh used to be fighting on the side of the Houthis, and tribes loyal to Saleh were supporting the Houthis. However, the Houthis ambushed and killed Saleh in December of last year, after Saleh, sickened by the massive war deaths, called on both the Houthis and Saudis to end the war, an act that the Houthis called betrayal. So now the tribes formerly supporting Saleh have switched sides from the Houthis to the Saudis, and this may be one of the reasons that the Saudis are hopeful that Hodeidah can be captured quickly.
Since the beginning of the war, the American and British governments have providing weapons and logistics support to the Saudis, and they continue to do so. However, both governments are pressuring the Saudis to reduce civilian casualties, and are warning the Saudis of the consequences of a potential humanitarian disaster. Middle East Eye and Australian Broadcasting and Brookings and Middle East Eye (12-Jun)
The war in Yemen sharply escalated three months ago, when the Houthis began attacking Saudi cities with missiles. The missiles have no guidance systems, and the Saudis were able to destroy many of the incoming missiles using defensive American-supplied Patriot missiles, but not all, as there have been some Saudi civilian casualties.
On Saturday, the Houthis fired a "projectile" into Saudi Arabia, killing three civilians. According to a Saudi military spokesman:
"The terrorist Iranian-Houthi militia has targeted civilians with a projectile. ...The Joint Forces Command of the coalition will strike with an iron fist all those who threaten the safety and security of Saudi nationals, residents and critical capabilities."
The Saudis fear that the Houthis will obtain sophisticated missiles with guidance systems from Iran. This is one of the reasons why they wish to take control of the Hodeidah port.
A Houthi statement warned commercial ships in the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important trade routes, to stay 20 miles from coalition warships or potentially face attack. Reuters and Middle East Eye (9-Jun)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jun-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Jun-2018)
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After the summit, North Korea must make the next move
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The vitriolic hatred between the left and the right began in the George W Bush administration and has been growing steadily since then in a worsening trend that shows no sign of leveling off. In the media, it's been clear for years that journalists in general have no idea what's going on in the world, and particularly have no idea what President Donald Trump is doing. For example, one Business Insider news story, apparently written by someone on Mars, says that the summit means that henceforth the world will be ruled by Beijing, not by Washington.
For some reason, everything that Trump says and does makes sense to me. That doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes, but it still makes sense. And that certainly wasn't true of Obama, who never made any sense to me at all, and the results speak for themselves. I believe that the reason that everything that Trump does makes sense to me is because of Steve Bannon, who is an expert on Generational Dynamics, and who used to be Trump's principal advisor, and is now, according to some reports, an informal advisor.
Very little of the media coverage of the summit makes any sense since everyone seems to be completely baffled by Trump, which is why I make a point of saying that what Trump does makes sense to me. The pundits on the left make bizarre claims that Kim is making a fool of Trump. I remember particularly when Trump canceled the summit a couple of weeks ago, Nancy Pelosi said that Kim was having a "giggle fit" over Trump's naïveté. This woman is so incredibly stupid, she should be locked up in order to protect her from herself. But pundits on the right aren't too much better, since they're equally baffled by Trump, and seem reduced to expressing hope that everything all works out.
So let's take a look at some of the media coverage of the summit, and see if we can figure out what's really going on:
Recall that I've said in the past that the North Koreans have had one and only one objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons and missile development.
Kim has completely failed in this objective. They had wanted, at this point, for Trump to be on the defensive, and force him to make a concession, specifically to reduce the sanctions. Trump has defeated that objective in advance by canceling the war games.
The only way that Trump could "lose" this summit, is if he suddenly agreed to remove sanctions. That would be a diplomatic disaster. Washington Post and Business Insider
Remarkably, the ball is now in North Korea's court to make a concession -- to provide the details for how they will denuclearize according to the CVID template -- complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization. If Kim can't come through, then the war games will be back on, and the situation will return to square one. Also, Kim would receive extreme paternal disapproval from Trump.
When Trump canceled the summit three weeks ago, the mainstream media were completely baffled, and the left referred to Trump as a senile, inexperienced idiot. I wrote that canceling the summit was a major diplomatic victory for Trump. ( "25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit")
That turned out to be exactly right, as the North Koreans immediately started suing to get the summit back on track.
Trump's objective is to get the North to denuclearize. As I said, everything Trump does makes sense to me, and everything that Trump has done with respect to this negotiation has been exactly right. If it's possible to get the North to denuclearize, then Trump has done what needs to be done to accomplish that goal.
But the bottom line is that I believe that it's not possible to get North Korea to denuclearize, for reasons I've given repeatedly in the past. Here's a summary:
There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here.
First, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. The reason that generational theory works is that population generations are almost completely predictable, irrespective of what politicians want. In this case, it means that decision to denuclearize will be made by the people, not by Kim.
Second, Generational Dynamics tells us that there are many problems that have no solution. By that I do not mean that no politician has yet been clever enough to solve the problem. What I mean is that no solution exists.
The denuclearization of North Korea is such a problem. If there were a solution to this problem, then what Trump is doing would be a solution, but it's not, since no solution exists. The Hankyoreh (Seoul) and Channel News Asia
On Wednesday morning, President Trump tweeted the following:
"Before taking office people were assuming that we were going to War with North Korea. President Obama said that North Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer - sleep well tonight!"
In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain returned from a meeting with Hitler and made his famous declaration that has echoed through time:
"My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour.I believe it is peace for our time.
Go home and get a nice quiet sleep."
It later turned out that Hitler was planning war with Britain on the same day that he met with Chamberlain.
To say that President Trump's tweet is eerie would not be an overstatement. I wonder if Trump is unaware of the connection, or if he is aware but wanted to try a little dark humor. Washington Times
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jun-18 World View -- After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(14-Jun-2018)
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Anti-government protests grow in Vietnam along with anti-China protests
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Protests erupted in cities across Vietnam on Sunday, triggered by a government proposed bill to implement new special economic zones (SEZs) that would allow land to be leased to foreign investors for a 99-year periods. Although the bill did not mention China, the protesters claimed that the bill would allow Chinese enclaves within Vietnam.
Tens of thousands of protesters had occupied buildings in Hanoi, the capital city, and in Saigon (Ho Chi Minh city), with large rallies in other cities, including solidarity protests held abroad in Paris and Tokyo.
There's a growing animosity towards China in Vietnam because of China's belligerent actions in the South China Sea. These actions include China's deployment of an oil rig in Vietnam's own territorial waters, in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and then China's use of its vast military power to block Vietnam from exploring for oil in its own territorial waters.
China's actions were declared illegal in 2016 by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law. But China has ignored international law, and has been doing what the Nazis did -- using military force to annex regions belonging to other countries.
China deployed its oil rig in Vietnamese waters in 2014, and beginning May 11 of that year, Vietnam erupted in anti-China protests, resulting in Chinese businesses and factories being attacked and damaged. The protests were fed by video in the Vietnamese media showing Chinese coast guard ships and Naval vessels attacking Vietnamese fishing vessels in Vietnam's own territorial waters.
With China seizing Vietnamese areas in the South China Sea, the idea that China would have control of Vietnamese land as well has struck a nerve in many Vietnamese people, triggering the protests on Sunday.
The dictatorial Communist government of Vietnam is not normally responsive to public opinion, but in this case were caught by surprise by how widespread the protests on Sunday were. If they had occurred only in Hanoi, the government would have controlled them, but the government was unprepared to try to control protests across the country.
The Communist government is reacting by demanding the social networking systems like Facebook, Twitter and Google provide user identification to the government when demanded. This has provoked additional protests.
China's government is warning Chinese citizens in Vietnam to take safety precautions. Vietnam Express and South China Morning Post (7-Jun) and Diplomat (12-May-2015) and Australian Broadcasting
As I described in 2014 in my Generational History of Vietnam, Vietnam has historically fought many wars against the Chinese. The most important was the Tay-Son rebellion, 1771-1790, the most celebrated military event in Vietnamese history. In its explosive climax in 1789, the Vietnamese troops repelled a much larger Chinese army in a brilliant battle that united the country for the first time.
Although the Tay-Son rebellion united the country at the time, Vietnam is basically two different countries, with two different ethnic origins, where North Vietnam (Vietnamese Kingdom) was originally populated by ethnic Chinese, while South Vietnam (Champa Kingdom) was populated by Polynesian settlers from Indonesia and Malaysia. These ethnic differences resulted in one ethnic crisis civil war after another, the most recent one being America's "Vietnam War" that ended in 1974. From the point of view of Vietnam's history, America was almost completely irrelevant in that war, as it was really a civil war between two different ethnic cultures.
Although Vietnam's civil war ended in 1975, the enmity between the North and South Vietnamese has not disappeared. This was particularly apparent in 2006, when President George Bush visited Vietnam. As his limousine traveled through the streets of Saigon, the capital city of South Vietnam, young people lined the streets cheering wildly. Although the Communist government has renamed the city Ho Chi Minh city, many of the residents refuse to use that name and call it by its historic name, Saigon.
Sunday's protests were not just anti-China; they were also anti-government protests demanding greater democracy. Some protestors carried banners reading “Returning Autonomy For [the] People.” Another placard stated the protest was against the National Assembly’s violation of the Constitution. The weekend protests may raise more awareness about land rights issues, especially the confiscation of land by the government. There's also a general suspicion that the Communist government in Hanoi is making deals with China's government in Beijing for its own benefit. Asia Times and Radio Free Asia and BBC (2-Jun)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jun-18 World View -- Vietnam government surprised by widespread anti-China and anti-government protests thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Jun-2018)
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Italy cries victory, portending a growing EU migrant crisis this summer
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Monday, Spain's new prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, offered to take in the 629 migrants on board the rescue vessel Aquarius, after both Italy and Malta refused to allow the vessel to dock in their ports.
The Aquarius, which is owned by the NGO SOS Méditerranée, operating under the direction of the Italian Coast Guard, picked up up the 629 migrants in six different rescue operations off Libya's coast on Sunday. The migrants include 123 children and seven pregnant women.
After rescuing the 629 migrants, the Aquarius expected to dock, as usual, at a port on the Italian island of Sicily, where they could make asylum requests. Instead, Matteo Salvini, interior minister in Italy's new anti-immigrant coalition government, ordered that the Aquarius be refused permission to dock at an Italian port, and demanded that the ship dock at Malta, saying "The Good Lord put Malta closer to African shores than Sicily."
However, Malta refused to allow the Aquarius to dock, saying that the migrants were from Libya, and therefore Italy's responsibility.
With the Aquarius running out of food and water, and with a number of migrants requiring medical attention, the ship was stranded in the Mediterranean Sea, about halfway between the islands of Malta and Sicily.
On Monday afternoon, the office of Spain's prime minister Pedro Sánchez issued this statement:
"The Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has given instructions for Spain to comply with its international commitments in matters of humanitarian crises, and has announced that a Spanish port will welcome the Aquarius, in which 600 people have been abandoned to their fate in the Mediterranean. ... It is our duty to help avoid a humanitarian catastrophe and offer a safe port to these people, to comply with our human rights obligations."
The offer was extended to dock in either Valencia or Barcelona. Valencia is about 1,300 km from the Aquarius's current location, and so would require two or three days to reach that destination.
However, organizers of the rescue mission, including NGOs SOS Méditerranée and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors Without Borders) are insisting that the Aquarius be permitted to dock in Italy immediately, for two reasons.
First, the conditions on the ship are becoming increasingly desperate, as it's overcrowded and there's a short of blankets, clean clothes, food, and water. A 2-3 day trip in potentially stormy weather would be dangerous to the migrants.
Second, the NGOs would like the ship to dock immediately, so that the ship can continue to pick up the "migrants and refugees that leave Libya in boats every day."
However, as of Monday evening, the Aquarius has received no further instructions, and is still stranded in the same place as on Sunday evening. The Spain Report and Euro News and BBC
The peak summer migrant season is beginning, which is a huge business where a lot of people are making a lot of money. Human traffickers charge migrants in Libya thousands of dollars each to make the trip to Europe. The fill each rubber dinghy with migrants to overcapacity, and send it out into the Mediterranean Sea. There is no intention that the rubber dinghy reach Europe directly. The dinghy will run out of gas just a few miles out, and then a rescue boat like the Aquarius is expected to rescue the migrants. Sometimes they're rescued, and sometimes they drown. In some cases, it's believed that the human traffickers notify an NGO that a dinghy is coming, and then the NGO gets a kickback for rescuing the migrants.
In past years, Italy has begged the EU for help, as thousands of migrants pour into the country each day. There was supposed to be a plan to distribute migrants to all 28 EU member countries, but many countries refused to accept any migrants at all. In past years, Italy's previous government had threatened to close all its ports to the migrant rescue ships, but they never did it.
So now Italy's interior minister Matteo Salvini is taking a hardline stance, saying that he would not allow Italy to become "Europe’s refugee camp." He is threatening to go through with the threat to close all its ports to migrant rescue ships. This risks precipitating a full-blown crisis with the EU.
The EU is still holding meeting on distributing migrants to other countries, but getting nowhere. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel said,
"If we are unable to come up with a common response to the migration challenges, the very foundations of the EU will be at stake. Action is really needed."
However, there seems little likelihood that anything can be accomplished. The migration problem has been the main issue that has resulted in the election of new "populist" candidates in Italy and elsewhere. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the increased xenophobia and nationalism resulting from the migration issue is extremely dangerous and destabilizing for the entire European Union. Reuters and Politico (EU) and Guardian (London) and Daily Express (London)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jun-18 World View -- Spain's offer to take in Aquarius migrants is rejected as dangerous to migrants thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Jun-2018)
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Malta refuses to accept migrants, says it 'adheres to all obligations'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Italy is closing its ports to a migrant rescue ship with 629 migrants, including 123 children and seven pregnant women, and is demanding that the migrants disembark at a port in Malta.
SOS Méditerranée, which runs the Aquarius, picked up the 629 migrants in six different rescue operations off Libya's coast on Sunday. Standard practice in the past has been to dock at a port in Italy, and allow the migrants to be taken in by Italy.
Italy's new policy comes about following the formation of a "populist" government coalition between two parties, the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S), and the right-wing La Lega (The (Northern) League). The two parties different on many issues, but they formed a coalition based on their shared anti-euro, anti-EU and anti-immigrant policies, as well as lacking any fiscal discipline. Matteo Salvini, the leader of La Lega and now interior minister in Italy's new coalition government, has promised that Italy will deport half a million illegal immigrants living in Italy.
Salvini has said that migrant rescue organizations act like "water taxis," and he has previously accused migrant rescue organizations like SOS Méditerranée of begin in cahoots with human traffickers. According to accusations that have been aired by some officials in the past, rescue organizations coordinate with human traffickers and then take a share of the profits. These accusations have been denied.
On Sunday, Salvini said the following:
"[Italy is saying] no to human trafficking, no to the business of illegal immigration.Malta takes in nobody. France pushes people back at the border, Spain defends its frontier with weapons.
It is not possible for Malta to say 'no' to every request for help. The Good Lord put Malta closer than Sicily to Africa."
Salvini also says that he is considering legal action against organizations rescuing migrants at sea.
On Saturday, 400 other rescued migrants were disembarked in the Italian ports of Reggio Calabria and Pozzallo, after Malta refused to let them disembark there.
Referring to the authorities in Malta, Salvini said, "God placed Malta closer to Africa than Sicily and it cannot continue saying no to rescue requests. ... If anyone thinks I’ll allow another summer of (migrant) landings, without lifting a finger – that is not what I will be doing as minister of the interior."
However, Leoluca Orlando, the mayor of Palmero, which is the capital city of the Italian island of Sicily, has announced that he will defy the orders coming from Salvini, and will allow the rescue boat to dock at the port of Palmero. BBC and Malta Today and Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London)
On Friday, the government of Malta after Malta reportedly refused a request from the Italian coast guard to assist with some 180 migrants in its capacity as the nearest safe port of call to the boat in distress.
Salvini said:
"The Good Lord put Malta closer to African shores than Sicily, Malta cannot always say ‘no’ to any request to intervene,”[The vessel] waves as it sails past Malta and then lands in Italy. This is a mockery."
The government of Malta is deflecting any questions about whether it has ever accepted any migrants. In an interview on the BBC World Service, a government official refused to deny that the number of migrants it has taken in is "zero."
Malta's Home Affairs Minister Michael Farrugia said the following:
"Malta adheres to all its obligations at all times. With regards to Search and Rescue, Malta acts in accordance to the international conventions that apply. Malta will continue to respect these conventions with respect to the Safety of Life at Sea, as happened in this latest case and indeed in each case."
Malta said the rescue operations took place in international waters off Libya and were coordinated by Italy, and therefore, "Malta is neither the competent nor the coordinating authority in this case. Malta will observe prevailing laws."
As of Sunday evening, the rescue vessel Aquarius, with 639 rescued migrants on board, was 27 miles northeast of Malta, in international waters "awaiting orders." Independent (Malta) and Malta Today
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jun-18 World View -- EU faces new crisis as Italy demands that Malta accept African migrants thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Jun-2018)
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Special Inspector General issues scathing report on US military in Afghanistan
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Afghan terrorists launched multiple coordinated attacks on Afghan security forces on Friday and Saturday. Almost 50 security force members were killed in Kunduz, Herat and Sar-e-Pul provinces.
According to officials, the Afghan National Army launched operations in eight other provinces against insurgents, killing over 80 Taliban and ISIS militants on Friday and Saturday.
The Taliban announced the beginning of its Spring Fighting Season in mid-May, and clashes and attacks have increased noticeably across the country, resulting in a rise in casualties among security and defense force members. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Khaama (Afghanistan)
On Saturday, the Taliban issued a farcical statement declaring a 3-day ceasefire. As usual, Afghan and American political and military officials are leaping to the bait, hoping that this is a sign that the Taliban are ready for a "negotiated settlement." Here are some excerpts:
"Directives of the Leader for the Mujahideen during Eid daysIn the name of Allah, most Compassionate, most Merciful
In order that our countrymen participate in Eid prayers and other festivities with complete confidence during the joyous days of Eid, the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate must strictly comply with the following directives:
1 – All Mujahideen are directed to cease all offensive operations against the domestic opposition forces during the first, second and third day of Eid however if Mujahideen are attacked, they must defend with their utmost capability.
2 – Foreign occupiers are excluded from the above order. Continue your operations against them and target them wherever and whenever you find an opportunity. ...
5 – The Mujahideen should not participate in civilian congregations where there could be a danger of airstrikes so that our inhumane enemy will not be able to use it as an excuse for their blind bombardments and civilian tragedies."
The phrase "the domestic opposition forces" refers to the Afghan security forces.
So, the Taliban issues this statement declaring a 3-day ceasefire against "the domestic opposition forces" at the same time that it's conducting massive coordinated terror attacks against those same forces.
Furthermore, the "foreign occupiers," referring to the US-led coalition forces, are not included in the ceasefire.
The Taliban have repeatedly said that their objective is to force the US-led coalition forces to leave, after which they would easily defeat "the domestic opposition forces" in many parts of the country. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Long War Journal
The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has issued a "lessons learned" report for 2018 on the US experience in trying to implement a stabilization strategy in Afghanistan. The report says that pretty much everything the US forces did in Afghanistan was a failure, and that's a conclusion I agree with.
Before providing excerpts, let me remind long-time readers that I've been writing for almost ten years that a simple Generational Dynamics analysis shows that any sort of victory or stabilization against the Taliban is literally impossible.
As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.
But you don't have to know anything about generational history to understand what's going on. You just have to understand that there was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96, pitting the Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that the Taliban are Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking for revenge for atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that Nato troops are completely irrelevant.
So even if the Taliban leaders agreed to some settlement, it would not satisfy their sons and daughters, who are not going to be deterred in their search for revenge. That's the way the world works.
The SIGAR report says, in many many words, that the Afghan stabilization operation has been a disaster. Here's a summary of the report's conclusions:
"Between 2001 and 2017, U.S. government efforts to stabilize insecure and contested areas in Afghanistan mostly failed.The U.S. government overestimated its ability to build and reform government institutions in Afghanistan as part of the stabilization strategy. During the 2009 Afghanistan strategy reviews, President Obama and his civilian and military advisors set in motion a series of events that fostered unrealistic expectations of what could be achieved. They also ensured the U.S. government’s stabilization strategy would not succeed, first with the rapid surge and then the rapid transition. Under immense pressure to quickly stabilize insecure districts, U.S. government agencies spent far too much money, far too quickly, in a country woefully unprepared to absorb it. Money spent was often the metric of success. As a result, programming sometimes exacerbated conflicts, enabled corruption, and bolstered support for insurgents.
Every organization and agency that worked on stabilization in Afghanistan suffered from personnel and programming deficits borne from rapid scaling, short tours, and the pressure to make quick progress. Even harder than finding available civilians and soldiers was finding qualified and experienced candidates who were trained and equipped to understand and navigate local political economies.
Stabilization is inherently political, but given DOD’s size and resources the military consistently determined priorities and chose to focus on the most insecure districts first. These areas were often perpetually insecure and had to be cleared of insurgents again and again. Civilian agencies, particularly USAID, were compelled to establish stabilization programs in fiercely contested areas that were not ready for them.
Because the coalition focused on the most insecure areas and rarely provided an enduring sense of security after clearing them, Afghans had little faith their districts would remain in government hands when the coalition eventually withdrew and were often too afraid to serve in local government. Implementing partners struggled to execute projects amid the violence, the coalition had very limited access to and understanding of prioritized communities, and U.S. government agencies were unable to adequately monitor and evaluate the projects that were implemented.
As a result, powerbrokers and predatory government officials with access to coalition projects became kings with patronage to sell, fueling conflicts between and among communities. In turn, Afghans who were marginalized in this competition for access and resources found natural allies in the Taliban, who used that support to divide and conquer communities the coalition was keen to win over."
To anyone who understands the generational analyses of Afghanistan that I've been writing for ten years, none of the SIGAR conclusions are a surprise at all. Stabilization didn't work because stabilization is impossible in Afghanistan for the generational reasons given, and that will continue into the future.
Nonetheless, US military forces said on Friday that the US military fight in Afghanistan will be intensified.
As I've written in the past, there may be a dynamic going on, where the American military makes statements that the public wants to hear, even though they don't contain a word of truth. Donald Trump and the military understand that this war cannot be won, but there's a larger purpose. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and AP
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jun-18 World View -- Afghan Taliban launches multiple terror attacks, then declares farcical ceasefire thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Jun-2018)
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Protests grow against new IMF deal in Argentina
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
![Protester holds up sign saying '[President] Macri + IMF = Poverty' (AFP)](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180608b.jpg "Protester holds up sign saying '[President] Macri + IMF = Poverty' (AFP)") |
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to lend Argentina's government up to $50 billion over a three year period to help the country stanch a monetary crisis that could end in default. President Mauricio Macri felt he was forced to get help from the IMF, even though most Argentinian people are bitterly angry at the IMF for pulling the plug on a previous bailout. Anti-IMF protests have already begun, demanding that Macri back out of the agreement.
The current crisis was triggered earlier this year, when an interest rate increase by the American Federal Reserve caused the yield (interest rate) on American 10-year Treasury bonds to rise to 3% for the first time since January 2014. This action by the American central bank had a domino effect on the currencies of other countries. Investors that had purchased bonds issued by other countries suddenly had the choice of purchasing American 10-year bonds, normally considered one of the least risky investments in the world, at a higher interest rate than before.
The currencies of so-called "emerging market" countries were the hardest hit, including Turkey, Russia, Brazil and Mexico. But Argentina, with an inflation rate of 21% and a rapidly growing pile of foreign-currency debt, was hit especially hard, with the result that the peso lost 20% of its value against the dollar.
Argentina's economy had been improving since president Mauricio Macri took office in 2015. But in retrospect, Macri made some serious error by going too deeply into debt denominated in dollars. When the Fed raised its interest rates to 3%, it raised the interest due on the money that Argentina had borrowed, and now the country far into debt that it cannot repay, and facing the possible disaster of a default. BBC and International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bloomberg and Guardian (London)
The people of Argentina do not loath the IMF because the IMF is lending them $50 billion. The people of Argentina loath the IMF because the IMF imposes austerity commitment whenever it loans money, and the mention of austerity brings back bitter memories.
In the 1990s, Argentina's peso was pegged to the dollar. In 1998, the country faced a financial crisis, but was unable to devalue the currency without abandoning its peg to the dollar. In 2000, the IMF loaned Argentina billions of dollars, and imposed austerity requirements. When Argentina failed to meet its commitment, the IMF pulled the plug, sending Argentina into a $100 billion default.
The default was a major crisis for Argentina, which most people there blame on the IMF. However, the economy began to stabilize president Néstor Kirchner, who governed from 2003 to 2007. When Kirchner declined to run for another term, his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner ran for president and won. The radical far left Cristina was president from 2007-2015, and undid all the good that her husband had accomplished, by raising public spending, nationalizing companies, and heavily subsidizing everything from utilities to football transmissions on television. (Cristina, by the way, in December 2017 was arrested for allegedly covering up Iranian involvement in a 1994 bombing that killed 85 people at a Jewish community center, in order to get favorable terms on Iranian oil.)
President Mauricio Macri is considered to have been fiscally responsible since taking office in 2015, especially after years of unbridled spending. However, he had no choice but to go to the IMF for help, which many Argentinians consider to be loathsome, and that may doom him in next year's elections. Buenos Aires Times and Economist and al-Jazeera (7-Dec-2017) and BBC (15-May)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jun-18 World View -- Argentina faces major financial crisis as IMF loans it $50 billion thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(9-Jun-2018)
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Protesters in Greece demand that Macedonia's new name be 'erga omnes'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Widespread opposition continues in Greece to agree to change the name of the "Republic of Macedonia" to another name that includes the word "Macedonia." Greeks refer to their northern neighbor as the "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (FYROM), although most of the rest of the world just calls it "Macedonia."
Greece has vetoed attempts by Macedonia to join either Nato or the EU because many Greeks consider "Macedonia" to be pure Greek name, as well as the name of their own province of Macedonia, and they oppose another other country using it as part of their own name. They are especially infuriated by Macedonia's claims that Alexander the Great was Macedonian. They claim that he was Greek because at that time the Kingdom of Macedon was part of Greece.
But now it appears that the governments of the two countries are close to agreeing to a new name. The solutions being discussed are adding a modifier to "Macedonia," to get "New Macedonia" (as in New Zealand) or "Northern Macedonia" (similar to North Korea) or "Upper Macedonia." They're under pressure to reach an agreement in time for an EU summit in late June and a Nato summit in mid-July. Once a name is agreed, the former Yugoslav republic can move forward with plans to join both the EU and Nato.
Tens of thousands of protesters in 23 northern Greek cities held rallies on Wednesday, with slogans such as "Macedonia is Greek," "Respect our history" and "There is only one Macedonia and it is in Greece, where King Phillip and Alexander the Great were born."
However, many politicians in Greece's New Democracy party are opposed to any name change that includes the world "Macedonia," while many politicians in Macedonia's VMRO-EPMNE party are opposed to changing the name of the "Republic of Macedonia" to anything else.
Even assuming that agreement can be reached on a name with "Macedonia" and a modifier, there are disagreements over portions of Macedonia's constitution, and whether allowing Macedonia into the EU would be a tacit agreement by Greece that people living in Greece's province of Macedonia could be under the jurisdiction of the country.
Article 49 of Macedonia's current constitution says the following:
"The republic is interested in the regime and the rights of all persons belonging to the Macedonian people in neighboring countries, as well as Macedonian expats, by assisting in their cultural development and promoting bonds between them."
Macedonia has been asked, as part of any agreement on a new name, to remove this article from the constitution, but so far Macedonia has refused. Reuters and Kathimerini and al-Jazeera and Irish Times and Deutsche Welle
The phrase "erga omnes" is a Latin term meaning "in relation to everyone." It has a technical meaning in international law referring to acts that are illegal for any nation, such as genocide, slavery, acts of aggression, and racial discrimination.
This high-powered legal term, erga omnes, is now being referenced to discuss the much more prosaic problem of how to rename "The Republic of Macedonia" in such a way that everyone in the world will be using the same name.
According to some reports, the name most likely to be chosen is Republic of Northern Macedonia (Severna Makedonija), where Severna Makedonija is the Slavic version of the name Northern Macedonia.
The "erga omnes" question is whether the new name will be used by everyone in the world, or whether the new name will be used only by the European Union, Nato and the United Nations, with the rest of the world continuing to use "Republic of Macedonia."
That situation already exists with the country's current name. It's "Republic of Macedonia" to most of the world, but the official name within the United Nations, the EU and Nato is "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (FYROM).
So those in Greece who are opposing a settlement on the name are saying that unless an "erga omnes" policy is adopted, then nothing will change, except to replace one unused name (FYROM) with another (such as Severna Makedonija), but everyone will still just call it "Republic of Macedonia."
For these people, if there's any acceptable solution at all, then it has to be an "erga omnes" solution, where the country officially agrees to change its name to "Republic of Northern Macedonia," for the entire world. Kathimerini and Kathimerini and Kathimerini
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jun-18 World View -- Macedonia name issue triggers more huge protests in northern Greece thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Jun-2018)
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Deep millennia-old issues separate Turkey and Greece
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Tuesday, Turkish warplanes held a barrage of flyovers over the Aegean Sea, in some cases flying over Greece's airspace. The flyovers are in revenge for the release of the last four of eight military servicemen into protective custody.
Since the aborted coup attempt on Turkey on July 16, 2016, Turkey has been demanding the extradition of eight Turkish soldiers who fled to northern Greece after the coup. The eight soldiers, including two commanders, four captains and two sergeants, had escaped to Greece on a Sikorsky helicopter and landed in Alexandroupolis. The soldiers denied involvement in the coup, but said that they would not receive a fair trial in Turkey.
Greece refused to extradite them without an appropriate court hearing, and an extradition trial in Greece requested by Turkey. The detention period expired after 18 months, without Turkey having requested a trial in Greece. In March, the Council of State -- Greece’s highest administrative court -- ruled that the first of the eight men should be freed from detention, although he's barred from leaving Greece, and stays at a secret location with tight security, as his asylum application is ongoing. These rulings have continued, and on Tuesday the last four of the eight military servicemen were similarly freed.
According to a Greek analyst:
"The dilemma for the Greek authorities was that if these people were sent back to Turkey ... a fair trial is not guaranteed. And that was at a time [July, 2016] when the re-instatement of the death penalty was frequently discussed at many levels including [that of] President Erdogan.So it was impossible for the Greek justice system to send them back. It has nothing to do with their actual guilt or innocence, it was about the right to a fair trial [if] they were sent back to Turkey."
Turkey refers to the eight soldiers as "putschists," and blamed Greece for harboring traitors:
"The release of all the fugitive putschists cannot be explained as a routine administrative decision pertaining to their detention period.The release of the traitors who plotted a coup in order to overthrow democracy in a neighboring country by a country, which claims to be the cradle of the democracy conforms neither to international law, nor to good neighborly relations."
Turkey retaliated in March by seizing two Greek soldiers, who had crossed the border from Greece into Turkey. The soldiers say they inadvertently strayed across the frontier in bad weather.
In April, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan linked Turkey's seizure of the two Greek soldiers to the fate of the eight Turkish soldiers who had fled after the aborted coup: "It is not fair to be concerned only by the Greek soldiers and not be concerned about the Turkish soldiers." Greek Reporter and Radio France International and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Guardian (London, 12-March)
On December 7-8, 2017, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a state visit to Greece's president Alexis Tsipras in Athens, the first official visit between heads of state since 1952. It appears that no issues were resolved at that meeting, least of all the fate of the Turkish soldiers being held in Greece.
Wars between Greece and Turkey go back millennia, even celebrated in Greek mythology in the story of the Trojan Horse and the fall of Troy. In 1974, the countries fought a war over the island of Cyprus, with the result that the small island is split between a Greek portion and a Turkish portion. Cyprus unification talks are frequently scheduled, but with tensions growing between Greece and Turkey, they are unlikely to succeed.
Besides the issues of Cyprus and the soldiers being held by each side, there has been a growing disagreement over the sovereignty of hundreds of islands in the Aegean Sea. The boundaries between Turkey and Greece, and the disposition of the islets in the Aegean Sea, were settled by the Treaty of Lausanne, signed by both countries on July 24, 1923.
According to Erdogan, Turkey was deceived and cheated when it signed the Treaty of Lausanne, and he would like to renegotiate the treaty. Turkey has expressed the desire to renegotiate the treaty with a series of very belligerent military moves.
In February a Turkish vessel rammed a Greek coastguard ship as both patrolled the waters off the Greek isle of Imia, causing extensive damage. Imia is one of the islands that Erdogan is disputing, claiming that it should have Turkish sovereignty.
Tuesday's flyovers by Turkish warplanes over the Aegean Sea are just the most recent of what are being characterized as "dogfights," where almost on a daily basis Turkish warplanes violate Greek airspace, and the Turkish warplanes are intercepted by Greek warplanes on policing missions. Although deaths are uncommon, a Greek fighter jet crashed in April, killing the pilot.
It's hoped that Turkey-Greece tensions will reduce after Turkey's national elections on June 24. Kathimerini (Athens) and Business Insider and London School of Economics and Anadolu
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jun-18 World View -- Turkey and Greece tensions rise with warplane dogfights over Aegean Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Jun-2018)
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Ethiopia's new PM lifts state of emergency two months early
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Ethiopia on Tuesday lifted a state of emergency two months early. The state of emergency had been imposed in February, in response to riots and demonstrations by millions of people, mostly in Ethiopia's Oromia region. The state of emergency forbids unauthorized demonstrations or the distribution of politically sensitive material, and permits politically motivated arrests without charge.
The government is largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrays, who are a market and government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the population. They are extremely authoritarian and have succeeded in marginalizing the other ethnic groups, and are said to have informants in villages throughout the country. They have succeeded in marginalizing the Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of Ethiopia's population, and the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises another 27%. Since late 2015, massive anti-government protests in Ethiopia's Oromia region, later spreading to the neighboring Amhara region, left hundreds dead and resulted in tens of thousands of arrests.
In a major break with tradition, the Tigrays in April of this year permitted the selection of Abiy Ahmedat, 42, an Oromo leader, to be prime minister and leader of the governing coalition, in the hope of ending the chaos and bloodshed.
The early termination of the state of emergency is thought to be a positive sign that the situation is stabilizing, and that the reforms being implemented by Abiy are working. It's also being touted as an opportunity for investors to begin once again exploring investment opportunities in Ethiopia.
Since taking office, Abiy has visited major cities across Ethiopia, and appealed to anti-government protesters to give his administration time to work. He has also continued a campaign of releasing jailed dissidents. Officials hope that his reform policies will end the protests permanently.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's almost impossible that the mass protests will be permanently ended. Ethiopia is in a generational Awakening era, like America and Europe in the 1960s, or like Iran today, when mass protests are a frequent feature. Mass protests can end temporarily, or be suppressed by violence from the security forces, but they return.
Furthermore, whether protests by the Oromos may have temporarily ended, there are reports that violent attacks are still continuing against the ethnic Ahmaras. The Nation (Kenya) and CNBC and Addis (Ababa) Standard and TRT World (Turkey)
Just hours after Ethiopia lifted the state of emergency on Tuesday, the government took a major surprise step by announcing that it would fully accept the terms of a peace agreement with Eritrea.
In 1998, a border war broke out between Eritrea and Ethiopia. This was a non-crisis war, with a quality very similar to World War I, where trenches were dug, mines were laid, and bodies of dead soldiers were strewn about. Of the 400,000 men who fought on both sides, 50,000 soldiers died.
A peace deal in 2000 ended the two-year border war, but it was not fully implemented. Tuesday's announcement says that Ethiopia, for the first time, accepts the terms of the 2002 border commission report. The report awarded disputed territories, including the town of Badme, to Eritrea.
The border war had begun in the May 6, 1998, in a battle for control of the border town of Badme. This town is described as nothing but a "humble, dusty market town," with no oil, no diamonds, and no apparent value, exception emotional. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia wanted the town, and at the time the resulting war was described as "two bald men fighting over a comb."
By accepting the agreement, Ethiopia will have to withdraw its occupying forces from all territories awarded to Eritrea, including the flashpoint town, Badme. Ethiopia also called on Eritrea to reciprocate the decision and work toward bringing a lasting peace between the people of the two countries.
As I described in my 2016 Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea, Ethiopia is a Christian country, and Eritrea is a Muslim countries. Eritrea was an Italian colony in the 1800s, and both were in the late 1930s as "Italian East Africa." Eritrea declared independence from Ethiopia in 1993, leading to the 1998-2000 border war. It's very unlikely that there will be lasting peace. Addis (Ababa) Standard and BBC and Al-Jazeera and BBC
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jun-18 World View -- In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Jun-2018)
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Fears grow that Jordan will be the next victim of the 'Arab Spring'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Anger over a proposed tax law has triggered five days of mass protests in the streets of Amman, the capital city of Jordan, by thousands of protesters, forcing Jordan's prime minister Hani Mulki to hand in his resignation.
The protests were non-violent, but they are exceptional because any protests at all have been rare in Jordan for decades. Nonetheless, 60 people were arrested for breaking the law, and 42 security force members were injured.
Jordan's battered economy comes from an unemployment rate of 18.4%, with a burgeoning population in one of the arid countries in the world.
The wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Sudan that began with the "Arab Spring" in 2011 have been particularly harsh Jordan's economy. According to the United Nations human rights agency (UNHCR), Jordan is hosting 750,000 refugees from these wars. There are 650,000 Syrians, and the others are from Yemen, Iraq and Sudan.
The proposed law would raise taxes on ordinary people by at least 5%, and on businesses by 20-40%. The tax increases are part of an austerity program required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in return for an IMF loan of $723 million to Jordan in 2016. The tax increases come after five successive fuel price rises, electricity hikes, and the scrapping of bread subsidies.
Jordan’s King Abdullah replaced the departing prime minister Hani Mulki with Omar al-Razzaz, a former World Bank economist, in the hope that al-Razzaz can form a government that will be able to find a magical way to solve all the economics. Petra (Jordan) and Reuters and Al-Jazeera
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The current protests were triggered by the proposed tax law that will substantially raise taxes on an already impoverished public.
But a scathing editorial in the Jordan Times describes how the situation in Jordan is far worse than simply the fact that people are extremely poor:
"From the view of the people taking part in the protests: government officials keep get high salaries regardless of the duration of their services, ministers get salaries for life even if they serve for one day, officials get luxury cars with drivers from taxpayers’ money, they do not pay for gasoline and thus are unaware of the burdens people are shouldering, they get to travel a lot to unneeded conferences and they get per diems for doing so, they send their children to expensive private schools, rather than poorly equipped government schools, they receive treatment at private hospitals or abroad as public hospitals are left for the needy, etc. People also complain that the government is not serious in tackling corruption, big and small, and is not doing much to improve basic services and cutting expenses and little is being done to ensure that services are being offered to citizens in a fair manner."
From time immemorial, this kind of situation where peasants and workers need protection from excesses of their élite leaders has led to popular protests, some more serious than others, some leading coups and revolutions.
The "Arab Spring" of 2011, which was triggered by the death of a Tunisian food vendor, resulted in violent protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria and other Arab countries. So far, Jordan has been relatively immune, but there are concerns that it's about to be Jordan's turn. The current crisis could spin out of control and play into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood or the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Jordan's crisis goes beyond its borders, especially since Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) began their blockade of Qatar in 2016. This sharp split among the Arab nations has had the effect of relegating Jordan to secondary status in the region. Saudi Arabia has stopped providing financial aid to Jordan, and refused to extend a five-year aid package worth $3.6 billion at the beginning of 2017.
The United States also provides $1.3 billion financial aid to Jordan each year, but the Trump administration may halt or reduce that amount as a result of a general review of foreign aid. The review comes atop of a sharp cut in US aid to UNRWA, the UN agency which is exclusively providing services to the roughly 2 million Palestinian Arab refugees and their descendants in the Hashemite kingdom, and which has increased the burden on the already very weak Jordanian economy.
Jordan's King Abdullah used to consider Iran to be the mortal foe of the Arab world, so the Arab world was shocked recently when King Abdullah had a very friendly handshake with Iran's president Hassan Rouhani during the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit in Istanbul.
Following last year's Saudi blockade of Qatar, there was a realignment of Mideast countries, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel on one side, and Qatar, Iran and Turkey on the other side. Abdullah's handshake with Rouhani suggests that Jordan is switching sides to the second alignment, as Abdullah desperately looks for financial aid. Jordan Times and Middle East Eye and Israel National News and Middle East Eye
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jun-18 World View -- Jordan's government in chaos as PM resigns in face of anti-government protests thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Jun-2018)
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Nigeria's amnesty program in Niger Delta under fire
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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I've written frequently about ethnic violence between farmers and herders in many countries -- Central African Republic, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s. The farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down.
In Nigeria, the problem has become so serious that it appears that more people have been killed in conflicts between farmers and herders than in the conflict with Boko Haram -- or by the militancy in the Niger Delta in the south of Nigeria.
In the latest incident, in Nigeria's norther state of Zamfara, cattle thieves killed more than 20 people, and burned down their entire village.
The incident was described on the BBC by Mary Harper, the Africa editor (my transcription):
"In Zamfara state, which is in the far north of Nigeria, cattle thieves came on motorbikes into a village. Initially some vigilantes who had been set up by the local community tried to deal with these thieves who come regularly to try to steal their cattle. They managed to chase the cattle thieves away, but then the thieves came back again, and killed lots of the vigilantes, and other villagers, burned their houses down, and made off with many, many heads of cattle."
Several weeks ago, we reported on the killing of two priests because of farmer-herder conflicts in Benue State, in central Nigeria. Harper says that the motives for the violence in northern versus central Nigeria are the same, but it's perceived differently by the public because the farmers in central Nigeria are usually Christian:
"In northern Nigeria, it's a more a conflict between settled farmers and herding communities, or it's a criminals who basically just go into villages and attack nomads, and take their cattle. Cattle are worth a huge amount of money. There's about 80 million heads of cattle in Nigeria -- they're a precious resource.So in the north, because most people are Muslim, it's more a matter of criminality. But in other parts of Nigeria, especially in the middle region, many of the farmers are Christian, and many of the herders are Muslim, so it's being portrayed by some people as a religious conflict, even though it's actually far more complicated than that."
The violence between farmers and herders in Nigeria appears to getting more and more serious, and with the huge amount of money involved, the government seems helpless to do anything about it. According to Harper:
"The government faces a huge challenge. It faces a big insurgency in the northeast with Islamists, militants, Boko Haram. And then in the south [in the Niger Delta], it has oil-related violence. So security forces are already very badly stretched, but at the more people are being killed in this violence related to cattle and farms, than in either the north with the Islamist insurgency, or the south. And even though they've deployed the military to that region, they seem unable to control it.And often people say that the people in the government and the army are actually complicit in the problem, they're corrupt, they've become part of the problem, rather than trying to solve it."
The last remark about the complicity of government being part of the problem has been a theme in several of the reports I've written about farmer versus herder violence. In particular, it's been suggested that Nigeria's president, Muhammadu Buhari, who is a Fulani and owns large herds of cattle, has been complicit in some of the herder attacks on farmers. BBC and BBC
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Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta has the capacity to produce over two million barrels of oil per day, but for years militants have attacked national pipeline installations, causing national production to fall.
The militants use a practice known as "oil bunkering." Thieves cut into the pipes, attach spigots, and divert some of the oil for their own uses. The Niger Delta is dotted with illegal refineries that produce crude gasoline, kerosene and diesel fuel. Much of the diverted oil spills onto the ground, creating an environmental nightmare, and the reset is used or sold by the militants.
In 2009, Nigeria implemented an unconditional amnesty for militants, known as the Presidential Amnesty Program (PAP) or the Niger Delta Amnesty Program (NDAP). The program provided the militants with an income of about $180 per month, much more than the average worker in Nigeria. Approximately 30,000 people in the Niger Delta signed up for the free monthly income, although only 2,700 weapons were surrendered.
However, the free income program did appear to be cost effective. Before the amnesty, the militants reduced Nigeria's production capacity by 900,000 barrels per day. After the amnesty, the loss was reduced to 200,000 barrels per day.
The amnesty program was supposed to last only five years, but when it was discontinued in 2015, oil bunkering surged again. It was estimated that from January to October 2016, the government lost about $5.8 million in revenue because of the bunkering. So the amnesty program, and the free monthly payments, have been restored. Today, Nigeria's crude oil output is about 2.2 million barrels per day.
The amnesty program is seen by many as a waste of government money, since it gives free money to criminals.
However, Prof. Charles Dokubo, special advisor to president Buhari, insists that the amnesty program must continue:
"The alternative will be too ghastly to contemplate. ...The fact is that to maintain the existing peace in the region is quite important for our function. If there’s a crisis in the region, then, basically all we are putting in place will not work.
You have oil revenue increasing and the Federal Government has some more money to pay into the amnesty program to also empower our people by training them and giving them the requisite skills to perform well in an economy that is open.
If that is done, for me, I would have achieved all that I want in the program."
However, violence has once again been increasing in the Niger Delta, so some further measures will be required. There's already a heavy Nigerian army presence in the Niger Delta, but the fact that they've been relatively ineffective leads many to believed that they're sharing in the actions of the militants. Vanguard (Nigeria) and Punch (Nigeria) and Forbes and AP (20-Jul-2013)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jun-18 World View -- Violence between herders and farmers surges in Nigeria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Jun-2018)
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Italy's markets stabilize as new 'populist' government takes office
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There were actually two new Spanish governments sworn in this weekend.
One was Spain's national government in Madrid, where the new Socialist prime minister Pedro Sánchez was sworn in, after a vote of confidence defeated the conservative government led by Mariano Rajoy.
The other was the Catalonia government in Barcelona. Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia after declaring illegal a referendum on Catalan independence on October 1. Direct rule ended and Catalonia's new government was also sworn in on Saturday.
Catalonia's new president Quim Torra called for talks with Sánchez, to resolve the question of independence for Catalonia. Just minutes after Sánchez was sworn in, Torra said:
"Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, let's talk, let's address this issue, let's take risks, you and us."We need to sit down at the same table and negotiate, government to government. This situation we're going through cannot go on for even one more day."
I'm pretty sure this "government to government" stuff will not go over well in Madrid. If such a meeting occurs then it may not go well, since Torra wants Catalonia to be independent, while Sánchez opposes Catalan independence.
Rajoy lost the no-confidence vote that cost him his job because of recent court judgments that revealed a vast kickback scheme with Rajoy's Popular Party. Rajoy tried to skate by and insist that he wasn't involved, but the level of corruption was so great that former Rajoy supporters in the parliament switched sides and supported the no-confidence vote. AP and BBC and AFP and Bloomberg
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Spain's government crisis is largely internal, and is unlikely to become a crisis in Brussels. That's not true of Italy's governmental crisis, which promises to spread, and cause wider crises.
Italy's plummeting financial markets have mostly recovered and appear to be stabilized as the "populist" government that had appeared to collapse early in the week came to power, though with a different cabinet of ministers.
The "populist" coalition is between the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S), led by Luigi Di Maio, and the right-wing La Lega (The (Northern) League), led by Matteo Salvini. Although the two parties differ on many issues, and distrust each other greatly, they decided to form a coalition based on their shared anti-euro, anti-EU and anti-immigrant policies, and particularly on the fact that they have no fiscal discipline whatsoever.
Di Maio and Salvini had chosen as finance minister Paolo Savona, who in the past had raised objections to Italy being in the eurozone and euro currency. Fearing a financial disaster, Italy's president, Sergio Mattarella, vetoed the selection of Savona, and the proposed government collapsed. Di Maio and Salvini, claimed that Mattarella was catering to the demands of Brussels and Berlin, rather than to the will of the people of Italy.
For a couple of days, Italy's government was in total chaos, and it looked like Mattarella had made a major political blunder. Despite the vitriolic political atmosphere in Rome, the chaos caused heads to cool, and Di Maio, Salvini and Mattarella reached a compromise, where Savona would be given a different job.
So now the European Union and the European Central Bank have to face the reality of dealing with Italy's new government. On the immigrant issue, Salvini wants to deport half a million illegal immigrants living in Italy, and he's being criticized as xenophobic, as are far-right parties in other countries, such as Germany's AfD and the National Front in France.
Economically, Italy is already a disaster, with public debt standing at €2.17 trillion, or 133% of gross domestic product (GDP). This also could cause a major eurozone financial crisis, significantly worse than the one caused by Greece's public debt.
But instead of looking for ways to reduce that debt, Di Maio and Salvini want to increase it by another €125 billion. Right-wing Salvini wants to cut taxes. Left-wing Di Maio wants to substantially increase public spending, including providing a guaranteed minimum income of €780 per month to each person.
So Italy's government has stabilized for now, but few people expect that stability to last long. Bloomberg and Euro News and CNBC and CNN
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jun-18 World View -- Europe faces challenges with new governments in Italy, Spain and Catalonia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Jun-2018)
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Israel and Russia reach agreement to keep Iran out of Syria's south
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on Thursday threatened to expel American forces from Syria:
"This is the first option. If not, we're going to resort to liberating those areas by force. We don't have any other options, with the Americans or without the Americans.This is our land, it's our right, and it's our duty to liberate it. The Americans should leave, somehow they're going to leave. They came to Iraq with no legal basis, and look what happened to them. They have to learn the lesson. Iraq is no exception, and Syria is no exception. People will not accept foreigners in this region anymore."
American forces in Syria are supporting the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighting in Syria's eastern province Deir az-Zour against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
There are actually several reasons why American forces have a legal basis to be in Syria.
First, the US has the right to fight ISIS, which is a terrorist army within Syria's borders. ISIS has been using Syria as a launching pad for terrorist acts against targets in Europe, America, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, among others. ISIS has to be controlled, and al-Assad has an obligation to control it, but has been unwilling or unable to do so.
US-backed SDF forces have already defeated ISIS in their stronghold Raqqa, but ISIS is still a formidable fighting force in Deir az-Zour. Even today, many people believe that ISIS would have a resurgence in Syria if American forces simply withdrew, and al-Assad wants.
A second major reason that justified American and other foreign forces in Syria is that al-Assad has driven millions of refugees into neighboring countries, destabilizing the entire region. Because of al-Assad's genocidal attacks on innocent civilians, there five million that have fled to other countries, with 3.5 million in Turkey, almost one million in Lebanon, another million in Iraq and Jordan, and over a million in Europe.
Syria has an obligation to control its own population and, when it can't, affected nations have a right to respond.
A third reason, related to the last one, as we reported a few days ago, is that Syria has now enacted "Decree #10" which makes it impossible for refugees to return to their homes, even after the war ends, thus making their expulsion from Syria permanent.
This is the same kind of genocide and ethnic cleansing that's being performed by the government of Burma (Myanmar) against the Rohingya Muslims. Starting in 2013, Burma's Buddhist army has conducted genocide and ethnic cleansing, massacring, torturing, raping and mutilating thousands of Rohingyas. Burma's army have driven over 600,000 Rohingyas into neighboring Bangladesh, not only killing, raping and mutilating them, burning down their homes and villages. Furthermore, Burma is continuing the slaughter in order to prevent the community of Rohingyas from returning to their homes in Burma, thus completing the ethnic cleansing.
Al-Assad is doing exactly the same thing with "Decree #10," making it impossible for most Sunni Muslims to return to their homes. This means that the refugees will not be permitted to return home from Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Greece and other European countries. Al-Assad has an obligation to provide homes for his own people, and there's no reason why all these other countries should be forced to tolerate his ethnic cleansing.
There's a fourth reason why US forces are justified in Syria: They've been invited into Syria after all. Under the ceasefire "Astana agreement" worked out last year by Turkey, Iran and Russia, and approved by Syria, the US is responsible for maintaining the ceasefire in some of the de-confliction zones defined by the Astana agreement. So the US military has, in fact, been invited into Syria, albeit for a limited reason.
In addition to being the worst genocidal monster so far this century, al-Assad has been repeatedly delusional about the war in Syria that he created. Possibly the most spectacular example occurred in 2016, when al-Assad was using missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine gas, and other weapons on innocent women and children in markets, schools and hospitals, he bragged that the 'liberation' of Aleppo would be a 'historic event' that will end the war in Syria and be remembered long into the future.
Al-Assad has promised to regain control of all of Syria, but after the "easy" battles in Aleppo and Ghouta, his final victory is nowhere in sight, and he may not even succeed in the battles of Daraa in the south and Idlib in the north. The Hill and Washington Times and Russia Today and Independent (London)
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According to reports from Saudi and Israeli media, Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met in Moscow with his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Lieberman, while President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Syria on the phone.
The reports indicate that they reached agreement that Russia would prevent Iranian and Hezbollah forces from occupying a 40 km buffer zone in southern Syria along Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.
Furthermore, Russia gave Israel the "green light" to launch military operations against any threatening target, except positions of the forces of the Syrian regime itself.
Israel has been concerned that Iran and Hezbollah could build up troops and weapons in Syria along the border with the Golan Heights, and launch attacks on Israel from there. Israeli officials have repeatedly expressed concern to the Russians that an Iranian buildup on the border could lead to a war between Israel and Iran, something that Russia does not want. This security issue is apparently the main argument that Israel used to convince Russia to keep the Iranians out of the buffer zone.
However, the agreement is far less than Israel actually wants, which is the forced withdrawal of all Iranian troops and weapons from Syria. In the last few years, Israel has conducted repeated airstrikes on Iranian targets, apparently with the blessing of the Russians, who control the airspace over Syria.
However, a report from Debka, says that there is no agreement between Russia and Israel at all. Debka's reports are written from Israel's point of view, based on military and intelligence sources that provide valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that they definitely do get some things wrong.
According to the latest Debka report:
"Contrary to widespread reports, Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah forces were moving into southern Syria on Friday, June 1 opposite the Jordanian and Israeli (Golan) borders. ...DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources stress once against that no agreement exists between Russia and Israel, or Russia and Iran and Syria for Iranian and Hizballah forces to exit southern Syria. It stands to reason that Tehran will never accept a deal to remove its military personnel from the south while Israel is left free to carry on striking Iranian military targets in other parts of Syria. Reports of deals are being pumped out from Russian sources alone."
Prior to the announcement of the Israeli-Russian agreement, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called on all non-Syrian forces to withdraw from Syria's southern border, as soon as possible. This would include Iranian and Hezbollah forces. Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia) and Jerusalem Post and Bloomberg and Debka (Israel) and Jerusalem Post
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jun-18 World View -- Israel makes deal with Russia as Syria's al-Assad makes anti-US rant thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Jun-2018)
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Egypt mediates a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
As another round of Gaza border violence after Friday prayers is possible again today, Israeli officials are hoping that a ceasefire mediated by Egypt will hold.
For weeks, starting on March 30, there would be clash between Palestinian protesters and the Israeli army on the border between Gaza and Israel. The clashes peaked on May 14, when 62 Gazans were killed, and hundreds of injured. According to Hamas, 50 of the 62 killed were members of Hamas, while the other 12 were civilians.
The latest burst of violence began on Tuesday evening of this week when, according to Israel's military, 180 Iranian-made rockets and mortar shells were fired from Gaza into Israel, reaching over six miles into Israeli territory. The rocket attack continued through Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Seven Israelis were reported wounded by shrapnel in the rocket and mortar attack.
Hamas is the governing authority in Gaza, but it's believed that the rockets and mortars were launched not by Hamas but by another Gaza terror group, Islamic Jihad. It's not clear whether Hamas knew about the attacks in advance.
Israeli warplanes retaliated for the attacks by striking by striking 65 Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets throughout Gaza, according to the Israeli military. These targets included a tunnel that traversed Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and penetrated half a mile into Israel. No casualties were reported in Gaza. Israeli forces targeted encampments that appeared to have been vacated in anticipation of attack. AFP and Israel National News (16-May) and Haaretz
The events on Tuesday and Wednesday were a major escalation of violence, the worst since the 67-day summer war between Israel and Gaza in 2014. United Nations officials expressed concern that the Gaza war would be restarted in full force.
The fighting stopped on both sides on Wednesday morning, thanks to a ceasefire agreement mediated by Egypt. The ceasefire agreement also included a new attempt to reconcile the differences between the two political factions, Hamas in Gaza, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank, led by Mahmoud Abbas. Israeli officials are hoping that the ceasefire will hold, but new demonstrations are planned for next week on Tuesday, June 5.
After the 2014 Gaza War, Egypt brokered a reconciliation agreement between Hamas and the PA, to form a "unity government". The new government would contain ministers and MPs from both Hamas and Fatah, and would govern both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
The concept of a Palestinian unity government has never been more than a delusional fantasy. After several decades of living separately in the Gaza and the West Bank, they are no longer a single Palestinian people. The two groups are as different as the French and the English.
Hamas has repeatedly refused to relinquish any of its control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority. Mahmoud Abbas has tried squeezing Hamas economically in several ways, such as by cutting payments to Israel for the electricity that Israel supplies to Gaza. This led to sharp reductions in power in Gaza, less than four hours on many days.
Hamas is facing its worst crisis in years, with a severe cash shortage, living conditions being compared to an "open air prison," and unemployment rate of 40%. Hamas has lost several former allies -- the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran -- because of the coup in Egypt, and because Mideast wars in Syria and Yemen have dried up resources by former donors.
Hamas became so desperate that last year it agreed to some of the terms of the proposed unity government, including giving the PA some governing authority in Gaza. However, these attempts at reconciliation fizzled as quickly as they started.
However, the core differences are insurmountable without war. Hamas and PA will never reconcile, just as Hamas and Israel will never reconcile. The two-state solution is a fantasy.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Jews and the Arabs will have a major new war, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Egypt Today and RTE (Ireland) and Washington Post
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jun-18 World View -- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Jun-2018)
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