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US considers military options for Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The US military is looking at options to keep two vital waterways, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, open to commercial shipping.
The increased concern comes about after Saudi Arabia suspended its oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, after a Saudi oil tanker was struck by a missile launched by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis in Yemen.
The missile's warhead only partially detonated, causing a 2-3 meter hole in the hull, but if it had penetrated deeper and reached the 2 million barrels of oil in ship’s hold, it would have caused a massive environmental disaster.
Saudi Arabia immediate suspended all oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb strait. To date, no other exporters have followed suit. A full blockage of the strait would halt shipment to Europe and the United States of about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products, or result in substantial shipping delays as vessels are rerouted around the southern tip of Africa. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal from the Indian Ocean.
Few people doubt that the missiles were provided to the Houthis by Iran. However, Debka is going further and reporting that the attack was orchestrated by a disguised Iranian vessel, the Saviz, a weapons-carrying spy ship, which had been under surveillance by Western naval sources for some time, as it was in a holding pattern in the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Debka's reports are written from Israel's point of view, based on military and intelligence sources that provide valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that they definitely do sometimes get some things wrong.
The Houthi attack is related to the Saudi-led offensive on the Port of Hodeidah, which is used by NGOs as the major port for humanitarian supplies for the Yemen population, and is also used by the Houthis for the importation of weapons. The purpose of the offensive is to recaptured the port from the Houthis. The offensive began on June 12, but has been going badly, and has made little progress, except to deepen the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which is considered the world's worst.
The Houthis have targeted Saudi tankers in at least two other attacks this year. According to a Saudi energy consultant, the Saudi announcement about suspending oil shipments was done for security reason, but also has a political dimension, to gain international cooperation in the offensive on Hodeidah:
"Rather than allowing these hostile maneuvers to go unnoticed in the eyes of the world, the Saudi (energy) minister has placed Iran’s subversions of the whole global economy under the spotlight for everyone to see. The capture of the port of Hodeidah will go a long way towards putting an end to these disruptions."
Saudi Arabia transports crude oil from its fields in the east, through the Strait of Hormuz, then through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to Europe and North America. The Saudis have other choices for delivering oil. One possibility is to use the Petroline, and east-west pipeline that can transport crude from fields in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing both of the narrow straits. It could also charter non-Saudi ships to carry the oil through Bab al-Mandeb, which it already with Asian customers using different routes. Reuters and Debka and CNBC
Tensions between the US and Iran have been increasing since the Trump administration pulled out of the nuclear deal in May. Since then, Iran's rial currency has been plunging to record lows, in anticipation of the imposition of new US sanctions on August 7. Some of those sanctions may limit Iran's ability to sell its oil, and this has led to tit-for-tat threats between the Trump administration and Iranian officials, including a threat by Iran to take military action to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
It's now clear that Iran is not just threatening the Strait of Hormuz, but is also threatening Bab al-Mandeb.
There have reports over the weekend that the US military was considering what options can be used to keep both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb open to commercial traffic, particularly oil tankers.
For example, military studies suggest that an obstruction of Hormuz, by mines, small submarines, “swarming” attacks by boats, and land-based missiles, would be defeated within a few weeks at most by US and allied naval forces. It would also be a casus belli for the US to make a much wider-ranging strike against Iranian military and other targets.
US military officials emphasize that if any military action is taken, it would be carried out by other countries, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and not by US forces. The National (UAE) and CNN and Haaretz and National Interest (28-Jun)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Jul-18 World View -- Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Jul-2018)
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Robert Mugabe endorses the opposition candidate
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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For years, it was forbidden in Zimbabwe to talk about Operation Gukurahundi genocide of the 1980s, and if you did, then you risked being arrested, beaten and tortured by the security forces of president Robert Mugabe, head of the Zanu-PF party, dominated by Mugabe's tribe, the Shona.
But last year Mugabe was ousted and replaced by Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, another Zanu-PF Shona, the man whom Mugabe had fired as vice-president just weeks earlier. After becoming the new president, Mnangagwa said, "The people have spoken. The voice of the people is the voice of God. Today we are witnessing the beginning of a new and unfolding democracy."
On Monday there's a new presidential election with 75 year old Mnangagwa facing, as a principal challenger, Nelson Chamisa, head of the main opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), representing the interests of the Ndebele tribe, historic tribal enemies of the Shona tribe. Mnangagwa and Zanu-PF are expected to win, either by popularity or election-rigging, depending on whom you ask.
If Chamisa does better than expected it may be because Mnangagwa was a major architect of Operation Gukurahundi, the bloody genocide of tens of thousands in the Ndebele tribe conducted by the Shona tribe in the 1980s.
Operation Gukurahundi was mostly based on the historical enmity of two tribes -- Mugabe's Shona tribe, and his enemies, the Ndebele tribe. Genocidal warfare occurred between these two tribes in previous generational crisis wars -- the Mfecane war that climaxed in 1828, the Matabele Wars that climaxed in 1897, and the Rhodesia civil war, climaxing in 1979. It was the last war that gave Zimbabwe independence, making Mugabe the President.
Mnangagwa received military training in China in the early 1960s as a teenager. As Mugabe's right-hand man, Mnangagwa is widely blamed for leading the genocide against the Ndebele tribe. "Operation Gukurahundi" (Shona language for "The rain that washes away the chaff (from the last harvest) before the spring rain") was accomplished with the help of the army's 5th Brigade of 3,000 élite Shona troops, which had been trained by North Korea. Tens of thousands from the Ndebele tribe were tortured and slaughtered, under orders from Mugabe and Mnangagwa. Some families were pushed into huts that were set on fire and they either burned to death or were shot dead when they tried to escape.
That wasn't the end of it. Since the 1980s, Mugabe and Mnangagwa have systematically won every election by marginalizing, jailing and torturing opposition politicians, marginalizing the members of the Ndebele tribe, and rigging elections. This has continued to the present time, and few opposition politicians believe that it will end now.
Mnangagwa has refused to apologize for his part in Operation Gukurahundi. According to one opposition politician, "What we need from Mnangagwa is an admission of what happened, an apology and communal reparations for the victims of that time."
Both Mugabe and Mnangagwa for decades worked together on Mugabe's "indigenization" program, which threw out farm and business owners who knew how to run a farm or a business, and replaced them with thugs and cronies from Mugabe's and Mnangagwa's Shona tribe who didn't know how to run a farm or business. Over three decades, Mugabe and Mnangagwa turned Rhodesia, which was a wealthy country and the breadbasket of southern Africa, into today's Zimbabwe, which is an economic basket case. They turned Zimbabwe's stable currency into a worthless hyperinflated currency, with an inflation rate reaching over 231 million percent, so that the only trustworthy currency in Zimbabwe today in the American dollar.
Because of the economic self-destruction, investors have abandoned Zimbabwe. With all of his talk of a "new Zimbabwe," Mnangagwa's principal objective to get international money to flow into Zimbabwe for him to spend. Guardian (London) and Newsday (Zimbabwe) and AP and Reuters and Bulawayo News (Zimbabwe)
In a bizarre twist on Sunday, ousted president Robert Mugabe unexpectedly gave a speech saying that he could not support the man who had ousted him, Emmerson Mnangagwa. He did not say whom he would vote for, but expressed some support for the main opposition leader, Nelson Chamisa, the leader of Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
"I cannot vote for those who tormented me," said Mugabe.
It's hard to believe the enormous irony of that statement. Mugabe is a war criminal, and has tormented, tortured, jailed and slaughtered his tribal and political opponents for decades, and now he's whining because he no longer has sufficiently palatial living quarters. However, this is the kind of self-serving attitude we expect of all politicians at all times in all countries.
Mnangagwa responded with an equally self-serving statement, implying that a vote for the opposition would indicate evil intentions: "It is clear to all that Chamisa has forged a deal with Mugabe, we can no longer believe that his intentions are to transform Zimbabwe and rebuild our nation." BBC and Reuters and The Citizen (South Africa)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jul-18 World View -- Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe election issue thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Jul-2018)
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Brief generational history of Cambodia
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Cambodia is holding a supposedly democratic election on Sunday, but there's little doubt which party is going to win: the party is the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), and its leader is China's man, Hun Sen.
China has done everything possible to ensure a Hun Sen victory. As the three-week election campaign began, China announced that it would provide $259 million in loans to fund an infrastructure project in the capital city Phnom Penh. China's ambassador Xiong Bo attended a CPP party rally to support Hun Sen.
China has provided more direct election aid as well. China provided funding for the election in the form of $20 million for equipment, including polling booths, laptops and computers. This month, U.S. security-research firm FireEye said it found evidence of a Chinese hacking team infiltrating computer systems belonging to Cambodia’s election commission, opposition leaders and the media.
There used to be an opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). It came close to winning during the last election in 2013. But then in June 2017, in a local election on the outskirts of Cambodia's Kampong Cham town, it decisively defeated Hun Sen's CPP. CNRP leader Kem Sokha has been jailed on phony charges of treason. Hun Sen arranged for the Supreme Court to declare the CNRP to be illegal. So there's no longer a major opposition party, and party activists have been forced to flee the country.
In the past year, Hun Sen has also destroyed the free press. Hun Sen closed 30 radio states, as well as the Cambodia Daily, one of Cambodia's two independent English-language newspapers. Radio Free Asia was banned, and of its reporters were jailed. The Phnom Penh Post, the last remaining independent newspaper, was sold to a businessman tied to Hun Sen.
Hun Sen has repaid China by making Cambodia an important strategic ally of China. While Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and other countries oppose China's massive illegal annexation and militarization of the South China Sea, Cambodia strongly supports China, especially in international forums like ASEAN. China returns the favor by fully supporting Hun Sen's human rights atrocities -- jailing opposition politicians, shutting independent newspapers, and so forth. There's honor among criminals. Reuters and Bloomberg and Asia Times and The Atlantic
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Hun Sen is following exactly the same pattern that many other countries have followed after a tribal or ethnic civil war. After the war ends, the leader of the country, usually from the winning tribe or ethnic group, refuses to give up power, and becomes increasingly violent and authoritarian, using as an excuse that peaceful protests or negative news articles can turn into a new civil war. This excuse provides justification for mass slaughter, rape, torture, mass jailings, mutilations, and so forth. I've described this behavior in Bashar al-Assad in Syria, who has gone to the extent of using Sarin gas and barrel bombs packed with explosives and metal and laced with chlorine gas onto civilian neighborhoods and markets in order to kill as many women and children as possible. Other leaders that I've described exhibiting this type of behavior include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, and Joseph Kabila in DRC.
Cambodian culture dates back to at least 5000 BC. During the period 500 BC to 500 AD, the Khmer people in Cambodia were strongly influenced by Indian culture, via India traders, bureaucrats and priests. When Khmer became a written language in about 300 AD, Indian characters were adapted for its alphabet. Cambodia adopted some Indian gods, but not the caste system of Hinduism. In the 1200s, there was a mass conversion of Cambodians to Theravada Buddhism, a religion that was also adopted by the neighboring Thais. There were several centuries of wars between the Khmer and the Thais, until the French arrived in the 1860s.
Cambodia became a French protectorate in 1863. Cambodia gained independence from France in 1953, and supported the North Vietnamese against the South Vietnamese and the Americans in America's Vietnam war. It's easy to underestimate the horror of what happened next, since in the vitriolic political atmosphere following the Vietnam war, leftists like Jane Fonda vocally denied it was even going on, saying "I will never criticize a Communist government."
And yet, the Buddhist society of the China-backed Khmer Rouge in Cambodia in 1975-79, led by Pol Pot, perpetrated one of the three or four top mass genocides of the 20th century, comparable to the huge genocides of Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, and Mao Zedong.
The Buddhist Cambodian "Killing Fields" genocide, 1975-79, killed something like 1.7 to well over 2 million people, out of a population of 8 million. So around 20% of Cambodia's population were killed, making it possibly the worst genocide, on a percentage basis, of the 20th century. By contrast, the Nazi Holocaust killed around 5 million, which was less than 3% of Germany's population. Pol Pot was trying to imitate Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in China, which was a genocide that killed millions of people out of some two billion. Mao Zedong and Pol Pot may be comparable in their genocides. In all cases, these millions of people were the subject of almost unimaginable atrocities, including torture and rape.
By January 1979, the Khmer Rouge had so destroyed Cambodia that the country was too weak to fight off an invasion by Vietnamese forces. At the time, many Cambodians welcomed the Vietnamese invasion, because it freed them from the Khmer Rouge. The war between the Vietnamese and Cambodians was extremely bloody, until the Vietnamese finally withdrew in 1989.
In 1991, prime minister Hun Sen signed a peace agreement called the Paris Peace Accords, a document that guaranteed democracy and human rights in Cambodia. However, like other leaders we've described following an ethnic or tribal civil war, Hun Sen has become increasingly authoritative and dictatorial, using as an excuse that unlimited violence is justified to avoid returning to the violence of the civil war.
In October of last year, as Hun Sen was brutally cracking down in preparation for these new elections, he said the following in a speech:
"Don’t imagine you can hold a meeting like the Paris Peace conference again because the Paris Peace agreement is like a ghost."
He told people to stop "dreaming" and harking back to the ideals of the agreement, because the Khmer Rouge were gone now, and so the agreement was useless "unless the Khmer Rouge returns." BBC (14-Sep-2014) and Diplomat (4-Nov-2016) and Phnom Penh Post (12-Dec-2017) and Cambodia Tribunal Monitor
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jul-18 World View -- Cambodia's China-backed dictator Hun Sen expected to win fraudulent election on Sunday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Jul-2018)
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Saudis renew airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen's Hodeidah seaport
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, temporarily suspended all oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal from the Indian Ocean.
The announcement was made after Saudi oil tankers were attacked by missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen. It's believed that the missiles were supplied by Iran. The Iran-backed Shia Houthis, which represent about 15% of Yemen's population, invaded and took control of Yemen's capital city Sanaa in late 2014, driving out the Saudi-supported Sunni government. A war began in March 2015, which the Saudis claimed they would win quickly. However, the war is still going on three years later, with no end in sight.
On Wednesday, the Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco issued the following statement:
"As confirmed a short while ago by the Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, H.E. Khalid Al-Falih, two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), each with a two million barrels capacity, operated by the Saudi National Shipping Company, Bahri, and transporting Saudi Aramco crude oil were attacked by terrorist Houthi militia this morning in the Red Sea. One of the ships sustained minimal damage. No injuries nor oil spill have been reported.In the interest of the safety of ships and their crews and to avoid the risk of oil spill, Saudi Aramco has temporarily halted all oil shipments through Bab El-Mandeb with immediate effect. The Company is carefully assessing the situation and will take further action as prudence demands."
Saudi Arabia has been sending 600,000 barrels a day of crude oil from the Persian Gulf to buyers in Europe and North America.
Saudi Arabia says that the closure is temporary, and there are currently no plans to permanently close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, but if it were closed then tankers would have to take a much longer trip by traveling around the southern tip of Africa. For example, a voyage from Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam takes about 22 days via the Bab el-Mandeb and Suez Canal, compared with 39 days around Africa, According to one analyst, the announcement had already added $1 to the cost of a barrel of oil on stock markets.
Bab al-Mandeb is a very important shipping lane, and permanent closure would have much greater consequences than just the price of oil. Egypt, Europe and the United States would have to intervene, according to one analyst:
"They have significant interests in protecting the freedom of the seas through the passageway. An international intervention against the Houthis may be just what Saudi Arabia wants."
The Houthis have also claimed that on Thursday they struck Abu Dhabi international airport in United Arab Emirates (UAE) with a drone. However, UAE officials deny that such an attack occurred. Saudi Aramco and Bloomberg and Al-Jazeera and Press TV (Iran)
The Saudi-led coalition launched heavy air strikes on Houthi targets in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen on Friday. The Saudis had agreed to stop the airstrikes on July 1, at the request of the United Nations, to give the UN envoy an opportunity to negotiate with both sides and reach a ceasefire.
On June 13, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a "catastrophic" assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen, to regain control of it from the Houthis, who had captured it in 2015. The Saudis expressed the hope that the attack on Hodeidah could convince the Houthis to sue for peace in the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
However now, six weeks later, the battle for Hodeidah has ground to a halt. The Houthis had been much better prepared for the battle than the Saudis had expected. The Houthis had heavily planted landmines, and positioned snipers everywhere. The Saudis had simply underestimated the Houthis.
The Houthi missile attack on the Saudi oil tankers has changed the scope of the war somewhat, since it's now a more international war than it had been. The Saudi-UAE coalition is using the missile attack as justification to resume the airstrikes on Hodeidah, and by closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait, they may hope to receive additional international support for the war. Al-Jazeera and Reuters and Middle East Eye
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Jul-2018)
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History of the Druze religion
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A series of gruesome terror attacks on Wednesday by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in the Druze-majority province of Sweida in southern Syria has killed at least 250 people.
At least 56 militants carried out the attack. The militants went from home to home, stabbing civilians, killing families as they slept, before launching several suicide bombings. ISIS claimed credit for the attacks on its web site.
The attacks targeted the community of 800,000 Druze in Sweida. The Druze religion is a splinter variant off of Shia Islam, and the Druze are considered apostates by extremist jihadists.
The total Druze community in the region consists about one million living in Syria and Lebanon, 104,000 living in Israel, and 40,000 living in Jordan. They're an important political force in both Israel and Lebanon. In Syria, they've stayed neutral in the civil war. They've lived peaceful among the Sunni and Shia Arabs in Syria and Lebanon for over a millennium.
However, ISIS consists mostly of foreign fighters who came to Syria from over 80 countries to fight Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, after al-Assad began committing genocide and ethnic cleansing among innocent Sunni women and children who opposed him politically. The foreign fighters in ISIS have no historic relationship with the Druze, so they were an easy target.
In the early years of Syria's civil war, al-Assad's army provided protection to the Druze. Some Druze are now accusing al-Assad of having withdrawn that protection because the neutral Druze refused to join al-Assad's army.
ISIS has lost a great deal of territory in Syria in the last year. They were driven out of their Caliphate in Raqqa by the Kurdish YPG, backed by the United States. And they were driven out of the region near Damascus by the Syrian army. There are still ISIS pockets in southern and eastern Syria. Some pundits had declared that ISIS had been completely defeated, but Wednesday's massive attack shows that's far from the truth, and additional attacks can be expected. AFP and CNN and Irish Times and Syria Direct and Sana (Damascus)
The Druze came into existence as a secret society, and only announced itself to the world in the early 1000s (11th century). There was a brief period of proselytizing that ended in 1050. Since then it has been impossible to convert to Druze from any other religion. Druze marry inside their religion, with less than 1% marrying people of other religions.
Within Israel, Druze are subject to military draft, unlike Israeli Arabs, who are exempt.
The Druze creed arose from a branch of Shia Islam, but it incorporates concepts from Christianity and Judaism, as well from Greek philosophy and Hindu and Buddhist influences.
Like any other society, they have had their generational crisis wars, during some of which they were victims of genocide, and in others they were perpetrators of genocide, making them no different from anyone else. A particularly bloody generational crisis war occurred in 1860 with the Maronite Christians, which is considered a victory by the Druze, resulting in the deaths of 10,000 Christians. It's only been in recent years that the two groups have attempted to reconcile. Pew Research and Jewish Virtual Library
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jul-18 World View -- ISIS terror attack kills hundreds of Druze in southern Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Jul-2018)
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North Korea's denuclearization timeline seems to be extending out indefinitely
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Analysis of commercial satellite pictures by the 38 North website shows that North Korea has apparently taken a first step in dismantling facilities at its Sohae satellite launch site.
This site has been used in the past to conduct multiple rocket engine tests, including at least two tests of the engines that ended up powering the first stage of its two flight-tested intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
According to 38 North analyst Joseph Bermudez:
"Since these facilities are believed to have played an important role in the development of technologies for the North's intercontinental ballistic missile program, these efforts represent a significant confidence building measure on the part of North Korea."
The action is being described as a "confidence building measure," following the June 12 summit meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Singapore. It's also being described as a step in fulfilling the promises made by Kim Jong-un to Donald Trump during that summit.
Adam Mount, a defense analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, said that North Korea is giving up little in its actions.
Mount was particularly concerned that North Korea did not even invite foreign journalists to watch the dismantling, to verify that it had actually occurred. Instead, the North did whatever it did in broad daylight knowing that it would be detected and reported by analysts like those at 38 North from commercial satellite pictures that show actions on the ground that might be purposely deceptive.
A South Korean official expressed puzzlement for the same reason: "We need further analysis to figure out why the North didn't turn the dismantlement activities into an event and whether the country is trying to control the speed of the process to maintain a pace it wants."
Furthermore, it's not clear that anything significant was accomplished at all, according to Mount:
"The actions at Sohae are a helpful signal that Pyongyang wants to continue negotiations, but do not in themselves advance nuclear disarmament. North Korea still has not disclosed or offered to dismantle facilities that produce or store nuclear or missile systems, or the means to transport the missiles. So far, the facilities dismantled have been peripheral to these core functions."
Furthermore, according to unnamed US government official referencing assessments by US intelligence agencies, the site "can be reconstituted within months."
U.S. military intelligence has similarly concluded in May that North Korea’s dismantlement of the tunnel network at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site with explosives was also reversible in a matter of "weeks to months." In that case, North Korea invited journalists to watch the dismantlement, but refused to invite experts who could verify what had happened. There was the possibility that the explosions that occurred at the entrance to the tunnels did not damage the insides of the tunnels. 38 North and AP and The Diplomat
As I've been writing for many months, there is no chance whatsoever that North Korea will give up its nuclear development program now or in the future, after having tortured, starved and brutalized their own population for three decades, under the promise that one day North Korea would be a nuclear power on a peer with the United States.
North Korea has had only one objective in the charm offensive since the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with Trump and South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted without having to give up its development of nuclear missiles targeting the United States.
All of the events since the June 12 summit meeting have been in pursuit of that one objective. Other than two reversible actions, nothing has been done to denuclearize or to end ballistic missile development.
Furthermore, gasoline prices being charged in North Korea have been cut in half since March, suggesting that either China or Russia is supplying petroleum products to North Korea that are in violation of sanctions imposed the U.N. Security Council in December. US officials believe that these and other "maximum pressure" sanctions have forced North Korea to come to the negotiating table. However, a sharp drop in prices could indicate either that the sanctions are not being properly implemented, or that North Korea has found ways internally to adapt to them. Either way, they lose their effectiveness.
The US State Dept. on Monday issued a 17-page advisory listing "deceptive practices" used by the North to bypass the sanctions, including the sending of slave trade abroad. It lists 42 countries where North Korean laborers are still being exploited, including Algeria, Angola, China, Equatorial Guinea and Russia, adding that the U.S. is monitoring them to see whether they violate UN Security Council resolutions. Washington has also singled out 239 North Korean companies involved in illegal trade and warned against doing business with them.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testified before the Senate foreign relations committee. He confirmed that North Korea is still producing fissile material for nuclear bombs in spite of its pledge to denuclearize. He declined to respond when asked whether North Korea was continuing to pursue submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
The timeline for North Korea's denuclearization has yet to be specified, but Pompeo said that the US goal was for North Korea’s complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) by the end of Trump’s current term in office, which runs until January 2021, "more quickly if possible." Pompeo said that no sanctions will be lifted until CVID is completed. Reuters and Chosun (Seoul) and US State Dept. and Guardian (London)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jul-18 World View -- North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Jul-2018)
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The explosive testimony: thousands of Kazakhs in China's reeducation camps
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A defector from China, who is on trial in Kazakhstan for breaking the law by crossing the border from China, has revealed explosive information about ethnic Kazakhs in China being forced into "reeducation centers."
This information is explosive for three reasons.
First, China has always denied the existence of "reeducation centers," although there have been plenty testimonies and official documents proving their existence. Since 2016, Chinese authorities in the have ensnared tens or hundreds of thousands of Muslims in Xinjiang province, even foreign citizens, into mass internment camps. The program aims to rewire detainees' thinking and reshape their identities. Chinese officials say ideological changes are needed to fight Islamic extremism.
Second, the testimony revealed that China is forcing thousands of ethnic Kazakhs into these reeducation centers. This is polarizing the Kazakh public against China at a time when the Kazakh government is trying to convince China to invest more money in Kazakhstan infrastructure projects.
Third, China is demanding that the defector be returned to China. If she is returned to China, then she would be killed or permanently "disappeared," and the Kazakh "people will say the government cannot protect its own people," according to an activist. If she isn't returned, then the Chinese will be furious, and the investments might be in jeopardy. AFP
The defector is 41 year old Sayragul Sauytbay, an ethnic Kazakh who is a Chinese citizen. She had been working as a Kindergarten teacher in China for several years. According to her public testimony, she was forced to work in a camp system in Xinjiang region, which is heavily populated by Muslims. Her testimony became explosive when she said:
"In the center where I was, there were more than 2,500 ethnic Kazakhs. And I know that in that region, there were several other similar camps."
According to news reports, everyone in the courtroom gasped when she said this. The exceptions were two men who had arrived from the Chinese embassy to watch the trial, and who remained silent.
She testified that she was arrested and sent to a camp after her husband and children returned to Kazakhstan, which the Chinese authorities consider to be suspicious behavior, even though it had been commonplace for years:
"In 2018, they sent me to work in a political reeducation camp in the mountains. Officially, this is a training center where people study Chinese ideology. But in reality this was a prison."
Unlike Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs had long moved freely between China and Kazakhstan, and there are some 200,000 ethnic Kazakhs in Xinjiang. However, the freedom to move back and forth disappeared late in 2016 in a crackdown by Chinese authorities, who took the unprecedented step of requiring all Muslims to turn in their passports. This meant that anyone who wanted to travel back to Kazakhstan had to file an official request, and hope for approval.
At the time of the crackdown, Sauytbay's husband and children were in Kazakhstan. According to her testimony, she was not allowed to return to Kazakhstan, but was "tricked" into working in the reeducation center, where she lost contact with her family.
Finally, on April 5 of this year, she used forged documents to illegally cross from China into Kazakhstan in order to reunite with her family. On May 22, she was arrested by the National Security Committee, the successor agency to the Soviet KGB.
Sauytbay testified on July 13:
"I fully accept my guilt and I am willing to endure any punishment. I only ask one thing – that you do not send me to China. A death sentence awaits me there."
Since she has admitted guilt, the government is faced whether to decline to deport her, and anger China, or to hand her over to China, which may trigger anti-government riots and demonstrations in Kazakhstan.
For two decades, Kazakhstan's government has cast itself as a protector of Kazakhs abroad. It now must take a tough stand or lose credibility with the domestic population. At the same time, when China might have expected to gain real influence in Kazakhstan, the court trial is going to make that almost impossible in the near term. The Kazakh people are also extremely suspicious of Russians as well.
As we reported in April, Kazakhstan is already permitting America to use Caspian Sea ports to supply military in Afghanistan, a move opposed by Russia because it changes the balance of power in Central Asia.
With nationalism and xenophobia towards both Chinese and Russians increasing, Kazakhstan may have to seek friends and allies elsewhere, perhaps in the West or in the Muslim world. EurasiaNet and Jamestown
According to a Congressional report in April of this year, reeducation centers are prisons where torture is standard:
"There are credible media reports that as many as 500,000 to a million people are or have been detained in what are being called “political education centers,” the largest mass incarceration of a minority population in the world today. Thousands are being held for months at a time and subjected to political indoctrination sessions. Many have reportedly been detained for praying, wearing “Islamic” clothing, or having foreign connections, such as previous travel abroad or relatives living in another country. Reports have emerged of the deaths of detainees in these centers, including the death of a well-known Muslim religious scholar who may have been held in such a facility, and there are reports that torture and other human rights abuses are occurring in overcrowded centers secured by guard towers, barbed wire, and high walls.
Survivors of these reeducation camps have described starvation, torture and a system of indoctrination akin to what China saw at the height of the Cultural Revolution. Sauytbay said inmates are required to read ideological literature, memorize the national anthem and study Chinese. Detainees are predominantly Uyghurs and Kazakhs, whose cultural distinctness is taken as a sign of “lack of patriotism.”
Another ethnic Kazakh named Omer has described how he was constantly tortured, including the following:
"There, he and 40 people were locked in a room. I get up every morning and I sing "red songs", they have to learn Chinese and Chinese history, especially how the Communist Party "liberated" Xinjiang. Before eating, you should shout "thank you for the party" and so on, when you are in class, repeat the slogan several times."
The Chinese can be pretty stupid, but it's hard to believe that even they are stupid enough to believe that the above actually works. No wonder the Kazakhs, Uighurs and Tibetans all hate the Chinese, and certainly don't consider them to be "liberators." US Congressional-Executive Commission on China (3-Apr) and Epoch Times (19-Jul)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jul-18 World View -- Defector in Kazakhstan reveals explosive information about China's 'reeducation centers' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Jul-2018)
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Once secret refugee deal sends refugees to Taiwan's hospital
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The government of Australia recently revealed a previously secret agreement with Taiwan, allowing refugees and asylum seekers in detention but requiring hospitalization to be sent to Taiwan's hospitals, rather than to Australia's hospitals.
On July 19, 2013, then prime minister Kevin Rudd signed an agreement with Papua New Guinea (PNG) called "the regional resettlement agreement." Under this agreement, refugees and asylum seekers arriving by boat without a visa would be sent to Manus Island in PNG, and would have "no chance" of being resettled in Australia as refugees. Another agreement signed with Nauru provided for refugees to be send to refugee centers there as well.
Last week was the five year anniversary of that agreement. It's estimated that there are almost 800 refugees in the male-only facilities in Papua New Guinea and almost 900 men, women and children in Nauru.
The policy has been extremely controversial, and has been opposed by humanitarian organizations, who claim that the refugee centers in PNG and Nauru are filthy and unsafe, with numerous stories of beatings, torture and sexual abuse.
Despite the objections from activists, the policy has been extremely successful in meeting its objectives. While there had previously been tens of thousands of "boat people" per year arriving in Australia, that number has been reduced to almost none, because refugees know that they will be transferred to one of the offshore detention centers. Australian officials claim that thousands of refugees' lives have been saved, since they didn't attempt the risky boat trip with human traffickers.
One of the loopholes in the policy had to do with treating serious illnesses among the refugees. If the refugee or a family member requires hospitalization, then there was no choice but to transfer him to a hospital on Australian soil.
Once on Australian soil, the vast majority have been able to stay indefinitely by preparing applications for High Court injunctions against their return. The court has yet to hear a case, apparently for fear of a ruling that would grant permanent asylum within Australia to a much larger group of asylum seekers. Instead, the government has avoided court cases by granting these refugees bridging visas that permit them to stay without a court case.
However, last month, a 14 year old girl in a Nauru detention center from Iran who had attempted suicide was moved under court order, along with her family, to a psychiatric hospital in Australia. The case was about to be heard in federal court but, just as proceedings commenced, the Australian government agreed to move her and her family to Australia.
The United Nations human rights agency has repeatedly condemned as arbitrary and illegal Australia's indefinite detention of refugees. The longest in detention is an Afghan asylum seeker, who has been held in Australian detention centers continuously since 2009. According to Australian human rights lawyer Alison Battisson
"Australia’s policies are against international law and are inhumane,” she said. “In a modern society this practice is unacceptable. Despite numerous opinions and reports from the UN and other human rights bodies, Australia has consistently failed to address arbitrary detention."
Battison adds: "The Australian government’s lack of response is shameful. It is also insulting to the UN." Catholic Outlook and AP and Guardian (London)
Last month, it was revealed that in September of last year, Taiwan and Australia had signed a secret deal to send asylum seekers from Nauru to Taiwan for medical treatment.
According to Taiwan's foreign minister Joseph Wu, the refugees will receive medical care, and will return to Nauru after recovering, with all expenses paid by Australia's government:
"We are offering our cutting-edge medical technology to help these poor refugees. They are all part of a deal we made with the Australian government. ...This is something we in Taiwan should be proud of. We are sharing our medical resources with other countries and these unfortunate people."
Under the agreement, Taiwan Adventist Hospital has received ten refugees so far, starting in January. Australia's Home Affairs Department spokesman said that Taiwan was "consistently ranked as having some of the best hospitals and medical technology in the world."
Australian officials apparently had been talking to several Pacific countries to make this kind of deal. Taiwan was chosen because of its political predicament -- China is a member of the United Nations, but Taiwan is not. Since Taiwan is not a UN member, it is therefore not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, meaning it is not automatically bound to hear asylum applications. Therefore, the refugees cannot claim protection in Taiwan, and can be returned to Nauru. Sydney Morning Herald (22-Jun) and Focus Taiwan (26-Jun) and Lowy Interpreter (Australia)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jul-18 World View -- Australia sends refugees to Taiwan hospitals to keep them from Australian soil thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Jul-2018)
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ISIS-K claims credit for bomb targeting Uzbek warlord General Dostum
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, the vice president of Afghanistan, returned to Kabul in a chartered plane on Sunday, after a year in exile in Turkey. Hundreds of his supporters, including high ranking officials, had gathered to welcome him home.
He gave a short speech, and then shortly after his motorcade left the Kabul airport, a terrorist bomb struck at the airport, killing at least 14 people, and injuring dozens.
The reason that he was in exile was because he was accused in 2016 assaulting a political opponent, Ahmad Eshchi, a former governor. Eshchi claimed in 2016:
"I took Gen. Dostum’s hand and greeted him [at the Buzkashi grounds]. From that point, he started abusing me verbally. He told me that he knows what I have done. He told me he knows what my son has done. Who will look for you if I kill you here. I will throw you under the horses and do Buzkashi on you. He called on his bodyguards and told them to grab me and beat me. He [Dostum] lay me on the ground and put his foot on my neck."
He claimed that Dostum ordered his bodyguards to beat him up, and then Dostum threatened to kill him and sexually assaulted him.
Dostum left Afghanistan early in 2017 under pressure from Afghanistan aid donors, including the United States. Dostum denied Eshchi's accusations but, amid international demands that he face justice to show that powerful political leaders were not above the law, he left the country in May last year, saying he needed to seek medical treatment in Turkey. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Australian Broadcasting and Tolo News (2016)
The Taliban have disavowed any involvement in the bombing, which was almost certainly a failed attempt to assassinate vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum. However, "ISIS Khorasan" (ISIS-K, "Wilayah Khorasan"), the Afghanistan branch of ISIS, took credit for the bombing on the ISIS public relations web site.
In addition to being Afghanistan's current vice president, Dostum is an Uzbek warlord with a very bloody history. During the 1980s invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union, Dostum was first an ally of the Soviets, and then switched sides and fought the Soviets. During the very bloody Afghan civil war of the 1990s, Dostum led an Afghan army and switched sides in that war two times.
Every ethnic civil war, certainly including the Afghan civil war, is filled atrocities, including torture, slaughter, rape, sexual assault, and mutilation, as a matter of course. So the description of the "conversation" that Dostum had with Ahmad Eshchi described above is unverified, but is certainly not implausible.
Afghanistan's president, Ashraf Ghani, selected Dostum to be his vice presidential running mate in the 2014 presidential election, in order to appeal to ethnic Uzbek voters. Dostum is credited with delivering the ethnic Uzbek vote, and being a big factor in Ghani's victory. The next presidential election will take place in 2019, and it's thought that Ghani will try to rehabilitate Dostum in time for that election.
While in Turkey, Dostum formed an alliance with two other powerful leaders, Atta Mohammad Noor, a major force among ethnic Tajiks and Mohammad Mohaqiq, a leader of the Hazara minority, both of whom joined him in Kabul on Sunday. These three ethnic groups -- Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras -- played major roles in the Northern Alliance that defeated the Taliban with United States support in the Afghan war that followed 9/11/2001.
The Taliban consist almost entirely of radicalized ethnic Pashtuns, which is also the ethnicity of Ghani. So Ghani's choice of Dostum as vice president represents an attempt to appeal to ethnic groups across the entire spectrum.
That brings us back to ISIS-K, the Afghanistan branch of ISIS. ( "18-Jul-18 World View -- Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan")
The Taliban and ISIS-K are both jihadist groups, but they have entirely different goals. The Taliban say that their goal is simply to get all foreign troops -- the US-led coalition -- to leave Afghanistan. However, that doesn't explain their frequent terror attacks on Hazaras and other hated ethnic groups that the Pashtuns fought in the 1990s civil war.
ISIS-K have different stated objectives. Theologically, they consider the Taliban to be apostates, because they make alliances with secular governments, such as the government of Afghanistan. ISIS-K, along with ISIS in Syria and Iraq, have stated that their goals are to create the world's greatest Caliphate, eliminating all secular governments.
So that explains the most likely reason why ISIS-K, which contains Uzbeks as well as other ethnic groups, is taking credit for targeting the Uzbek vice president, General Abdul Rashid Dostum. AP and BBC and Toronto Star (1-Feb) and Afghan Bios
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jul-18 World View -- ISIS-K bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan, targets returning vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Jul-2018)
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Fears grow that Bashar al-Assad will attack 2.5 million people in Idlib
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is declaring a major victory over the rebel forces in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in southern Syria, in the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra. The Syrian army, backed by barrages of air strikes from Russian warplanes, forced the FSA to accept reconciliation agreements that permitted them to be evacuated in a convoy of 40 busses to camps that had been set up in Idlib and Aleppo provinces in northern Syria. Under the agreement, the FSA fighters gave up their heavy weapons.
About 4,000 people are expected to be evacuated in the next three days. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) is urging all parties to provide safe passage for the estimated 140,000 civilians displaced by the Syrian assault.
The Syrian army victory in Daraa and Quneitra appears to have been achieved much more quickly than the victories in Aleppo and Ghouta. In all three cases, the FSA opposition fighters and their families were finally allowed to give up their heavy weapons and be evacuated to Idlib. But in the most recent case, it almost appears to be a scripted event, where both sides fought for a little while, and then the FSA fighters were allowed to evacuate very quickly. Al-Jazeera and Al-Masdar (Damascus) and Anadolu (Turkey) and Al-Monitor
Some newspaper reports have been claiming that the victory in Daraa and Quneitra means that the war is over. I can't see how that's even remotely possible.
With help from Russia and Iran, Bashar al-Assad is now in control of most of Syria but anti-Assad rebels still control Idlib in the northwest, while a Kurdish-led militia controls the northeast and a large chunk of the east.
In Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa and Quneitra, the war was settled when thousands of FSA fighters and their families were evacuated to Idlib. In all of these cases, there are villages that are now ghost towns because all the inhabitants have been evacuated to Idlib. This was actually the objective of Bashar al-Assad, who was practicing genocide and ethnic cleansing on the opposition, and now that they've left the villages empty, al-Assad can start filling those villages with people from his own Shia/Alawite clan.
But what about Idlib itself? It has 2.5 million people, roughly half of whom were evacuated there from other theatres. Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly said that his army will retake control of Idlib. This automatically means that the war is far from over.
But more important is how one analyst described the situation: There is no Idlib for Idlib.
What that means was in the other regions, FSA fighters could be evacuated to Idlib, but for the coming battle over Idlib, there's no other place to which families can be evacuated. All 2.5 million people are trapped in there.
Turkey is expressing great concern about al-Assad's plans for Idlib. Idlib's northern western border is Turkey, its northern border is the Syrian district of Afrin, which is under Turkey's control, and its eastern border is adjacent to Aleppo.
Panos Moumtzis, the U.N.’s regional humanitarian coordinator said last month:
"We worry about 2.5 million people becoming displaced more and moving towards Turkey. These people have nowhere to go in Syria. We may have not yet seen the worst in Syria."
And that's a matter of great concern to Turkey. Al-Assad will get started with his usual genocide and ethnic cleansing tactics, performed with missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas, all particularly targeting women and children, as well as schools, markets, and hospitals. Hundreds of thousands of people will try to flee across the border into Turkey. Jordan and Israel kept their borders closed to refugees in the recent offensive in Daraa and Quneitra, and Turkey may do the same in the coming offensive in Idlib. At the very least, this will create an enormous humanitarian disaster, and may even lead to war between Syria and Turkey.
During peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, in May 2017, Turkey, Russia and Iran – agreed to establish de-escalation zones in Idlib, and enforce ceasefires. The de-escalation zones turned out to be a joke, since Russia ignored them, and al-Assad just used them as cover further genocidal attacks. As soon as any opposition individual was violent in any way, al-Assad would declare that everyone in the region was a terrorist, to be obliterated.
On July 14, last weekend, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin had a phone call, in which Erdogan is reported to have told Putin that if the al-Assad regime forces advance toward Idlib, then the Astana agreement would dissipate. Whether "dissipate" means that the Turks would withdraw or wage war is not clear. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Reuters and Al-Masdar (Damascus)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jul-18 World View -- Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Jul-2018)
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Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on everything imported from China
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
In an interview broadcast on Friday, president Donald Trump sharply escalated the rhetoric in the trade war with China, and threatened to impose tariffs on everything imported from China. China responded to the threat with a vitriolic statement calling Trump a "wrecking ball." As I wrote a couple of days ago, the trade war with China will escalate. ( "19-Jul-18 World View -- Trump administration signals that trade war with China will escalate sharply")
On Friday, Trump said that in order to match some of the tariffs that China imposes on US products, he's already announced tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese products. He said in the interview (my transcription):
"I raised 50, and they matched us. I said, you don't match us, you can't match us, because otherwise we're always going to be behind the eight ball....I'm ready to go to 500."
Tariffs on $500 billion would include all products imported from China.
Trump described how this situation began in the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations:
"Look I'm not doing this for politics. I'm doing this to do the right thing for our country. We've been ripped off by China for a long time. And I told that to president Xi. I said how did this ever happen?And you know what happened? And you know what their answer is? because I deal with the highest echelons of china. One of the great people of China said, "There was never anybody that talked to us in the United States. We would put on a trade barrier, where you couldn't sell cars, or you couldn't sell beef, or you couldn't sell your farm products, nobody would talk to us in the United States.
"So we said that's great. Then we put on another one. We'd put on a tariff on cars, 25%, and you charge us virtually nothing 2 1/2 per cent, but they don't pay it. So we would do this, and nobody would talk. We'd start off at a lower number, we'd raise it, we'd raise it, nobody would every complain, until you came along." Me. And they said, "Now you're doing more than complaining, we don't like what you're doing." They think maybe we're doing too much."
It's widely believed that we're on the verge of a full-blown trade war with China, which was already clear from my article two days ago. CNBC and New York Magazine and Guardian (London)
China's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hua Chunying gave her regular press conference on Friday, and said the following in response to a question about trade:
"Third, everyone is watching when the US side behaves like this in international relations, and everyone is hearing and seeing what the US officials are saying and doing. So, we all know what the whole world thinks of the US. It is quite obvious that some people in the US are so obsessed with their conjured-up reality that they simply cannot be waken up. However, by brandishing its wanton and striking indiscriminately while depriving others' right to self-defense, by blocking its own door while demanding others to unconditionally open theirs wider, by overriding others' interests and the international rules to serve its own political needs and selfish interests, the US has really taught us something in a piercing and profound way. I have noted that many US citizens and its allies have spoken out unreservedly. The US is now the biggest wrecking ball to world stability and certainty. Its unilateralism and protectionism pose the greatest threat to the international rules and the world economic order.I said the other day that knowing someone is intelligence but knowing oneself is real wisdom. Today I want to add that nothing could be more disastrous than chaos. As the No.1 power in today's world, the US should at least think about its responsibility before making relevant policies or saying or doing anything, because it is the "order" of the world that they are expected to promote, not "chaos"."
Hua's most significant statement was: "However, by brandishing its wanton and striking indiscriminately while depriving others' right to self-defense, by blocking its own door while demanding others to unconditionally open theirs wider, by overriding others' interests and the international rules to serve its own political needs and selfish interests, the US has really taught us something in a piercing and profound way."
I believe that the reference to "depriving others' right to self-defense" refers to America's freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, where China's activities were declared illegal in 2016 by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law. With regard to promoting "chaos," the Chinese must be aware that they've infuriated all their neighbors by their illegal activities.
China's appeal to "international law" is laughable, because China only cares about international law when it favors them. When it doesn't favor them, as in the case of the South China Sea, they claim that they're superior to everyone else, and their law supersedes international law. The same is true in trade. China has repeatedly violated and ignored World Trade Organization rules, but they complain about international law to gain an advantage.
In an interview Friday, Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow suggested that China will retaliate against individual American companies doing business in China:
"My guess is that if the plot thickens with no progress, they will start going after American companies [operating] in China....The problem here is Xi. He doesn’t want to move, and they’ve offered the U.S. absolutely ... no options regarding the issue of [intellectual property] theft and forced technology transfer."
China could target individual American companies through new regulations.
Trump is not going to back down. And, based on the vitriolic intensity of Hua Chunying's statement, China is not going to back down either.
As I wrote in my recent article, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the US and China are in a generational Crisis era, in a tit for tat escalation sequence that leads to a full-blown generational crisis war. It's clear from remarks by Trump, Hua and Kudlow that that's exactly where we're headed. Foreign Ministry of China and Axios
Donald Trump and Russia's president Vladimir Putin had a private one on one meeting during their July 16 summit meeting in Helsinki. As usual, the mainstream media, who have absolutely no clue what's going on in the world, have been screaming hysterically, some suggesting that Trump should be tried and convicted of treason, and then executed. Others demanded that the American interpreter who sat in on the meeting should be subpoenaed and forced to testify, something that would trigger enormous international diplomatic issues.
Trump tweeted on Thursday that he would like to schedule a second meeting with Putin in the fall, this time in Washington. This drew further hysterical screaming, along with demands that no such meeting be permitted unless Trump fully describes what happened in the first meeting.
In his CNBC interview on Friday, Trump gave a brief description of his summit meeting with Putin:
"We had a tremendous discussion on many things -- terrorism, Syria, the Middle East overall, Iran, we talked about as an example nuclear proliferation -- to me there's nothing more important than that.We had a tremendous meeting. I think it was a very good press conference, except for the fake news I think I did very well at the press conference."
As I wrote in my previous article, Trump is very well aware that we're headed for a world war against China. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this war cannot be prevented. Trump is taking whatever steps he can to prevent this war, and I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to prevent a world war, even if the war cannot be prevented.
Vladimir Putin is also well aware that Russia is headed for a war with China. The Russian and Chinese people have hated each other for centuries, especially since Russia, after conquest by Genghis Khan, became a vassal state of the China and the Mongol Empire for centuries. ( "31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China")
So today, both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are aware that their countries are going to be allies in world war launched by China.
When they had their private summit meeting on July 16, it's inconceivable that they didn't discuss this oncoming war, and how they would defend themselves and help defend each other.
That also explains why there's so much secrecy about the meeting. Any mention that Trump and Putin discussed plans for a world war launched by China would cause a massive international uproar. So the subject of the private meeting must be kept secret. But with so much at stake for the United States, Russia, and the rest of the world, it's inconceivable that they didn't discuss this subject when they had the chance. And it will be all to the good for them to have another meeting in the fall, for further discussions on this subject. The Hill
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As I've been writing for many months, there is absolutely no possibility whatsoever that North Korea is going to denuclearize, either now or in the future.
On Friday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley criticized both China and Russia for helping North Korea violate United Nations sanctions as the regime smuggles in more oil than is allowed.
According to Pompeo, "When sanctions are not enforced, the prospects for the successful denuclearization of North Korea are diminished."
It's been nearly six weeks after President Trump's summit with Kim Jong-un, and there are no signs whatsoever, that the North Koreans have any intention of denuclearizing. ABC News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jul-18 World View -- The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Jul-2018)
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Britain's government in chaos as no-deal 'hard Brexit' looms
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Ireland's Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar says that Ireland will have to hire about 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors by 2021 in the case of a "hard Brexit," which is appearing to be more and more likely every day.
As the UK continues to move toward the Brexit cliff-edge on March 29, 2019, it's not possible to discern the current status of the UK-EU negotiations on the subject, because it's in total chaos, and even if you did figure it out, then you'd have to figure it out again a minute later.
Two weeks ago, UK prime minister Theresa May appeared to have achieved stability with something that's now called "the Chequers plan," because she was able to get it approved by her Tory cabinet at a meeting at Chequers, the prime minister's country residence. The proposal specified that a "common rule book" between the EU and the UK would be created. This was to be enough to satisfy the "Remainer" faction of her party, those in the party who never wanted Brexit in the first place but who could live with a set of rules that would make it seem that the UK had never left the EU.
However, it ended up angering the "Leave" or "Brexiteer" faction, who did want the UK to leave the EU, because the common rule book would force the UK would to follow all the same standards and regulations as it had never left the EU. So, even though May's cabinet voted for the Chequers plan, four days later David Davis, the Brexit secretary resigned. That resignation was followed by a second one, by international superstar Boris Johnson.
Then late last week, May was forced to accept four amendments to the Chequers plan, demanded by the Leave faction of the Tories. With so many flip-flops, it looked like the plan was dead. But on Thursday, Theresa May denied claims the trade proposals were "dead in the water" after accepting the four amendments.
So, as of today, it's not clear whether May could get agreement within her own Tory party. If she succeeds, she's have to get agreement of the House of Commons. If she succeeds, she'd have to get agreement from the other 27 nations of the European Union. (An additional issue is that Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn is being seriously accused of anti-Semitism. This is apparently a big story, and it's causing chaos in the Labor party that may spill over into the chaos of the Brexit negotiations.)
There are still other proposals floating around, but the important point is that there is no proposal, including the Chequers proposal, that is likely to get a majority vote. If no proposal can get a majority vote, then when the UK "crashes out of" the EU on March 29, it will be a "no-deal Brexit," otherwise known as a "hard Brexit." Nobody (or almost nobody) wants a hard Brexit, but many analysts now consider that to be the most likely outcome. BBC and Irish Times and BBC (9-Jul)
After 16 months of debate since the Brexit referendum passed, there is one particular problem has proven to be unsolvable: The status of the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK and the Republic of (Southern) Ireland, which is part of the EU.
Everyone wants a "soft border" between the two regions, but if the UK is no longer in the EU, then any people and goods passing over the border would have to go through customs, have the passports and visas checked, and possibly pay customs duties and fees. No one wants this, but there is no solution to this problem. Solutions that have been proposed include:
None of these has a high probability of succeeding. So that's why Ireland's Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar is making plans to hire about 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors, to prepare Irish seaports and airports for the change of rules in case of a hard Brexit:
"That involves preparing for and hiring veterinary inspectors to carry out sanitary checks on agricultural products and plant-based products coming in from Britain and also customs inspectors.We estimate we will have to hire about 1,000 customs and veterinary inspectors to prepare our ports and airports for Brexit.
In the unlikely event of a no-deal Brexit next March, of course it will not be possible to have 1,000 people in place for then but we will make contingency arrangements in the event that might arise."
Varadkar also warned that UK planes could be restricted from flying in EU airspace in the event of a no deal Brexit. He said UK could not take back its waters and expect to use EU skies. "You can't have your cake and eat it," he said. RTE (Ireland) and Irish Times and Business Insider (3-Jun)
And International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis of Brexit finds that that EU countries would lose 1.5% of their GDP and more than a million jobs, in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Ireland would be worst hit, losing 4% of its economy, due to its close trade ties with Britain The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg would also be hit hard, with . Germany would also suffering due to industrial supply chains.
The IMF did not estimate the costs to Britain, but an earlier Bank of England analysis put the cost at 1.5-2.0% of the economy, while other estimates put the figure at 4%. Reuters and International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Guardian (London)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jul-18 World View -- Ireland hiring 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors for hard Brexit thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Jul-2018)
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The growing conflict with China
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Many people see the imposition of tariffs as temporary, and likely to end before any serious problems arise. However, Larry Kudlow, Trump's chief economic adviser, was interviewed on CNBC for half an hour on Wednesday morning, and made it clear that the trade war with China is likely to become a lot more serious.
Kudlow said that deals with Germany and Mexico are coming. He said that "I can report without specifics that we're making good progress [with trade negotiations] in Mexico." However, negotiations with China are not progressing at all.
Kudlow listed the problems in trade with China (my transcription):
"A. The world trading system is broken. The World Trade Organization [WTO] is broken. We just had this discussion at the G7.B. The biggest culprit is China. And particularly since it entered the WTO, which was about the year 2000 as I recall. China has - they're still labeled an undeveloped third world country - but at WTO that's nonsense. Therefore they're trying to use Most Favored Nation status to have high tariffs, high non-tariff barriers. ...
They do in fact steal our intellectual property left and right. They do in fact have a forced transfer of technology, from the American companies that operate there. It comes from the joint ventures. They do not allow full American ownership.
You open a company on a joint venture basis, in a Chinese province. And because you only own 49%, they own 51% or more, the local party leaders, these are like Mafioso Dons, I'm told -- you have to lay your entire blueprint on the table, including the technology, and they will have their experts take it over. That's wrong."
In the past few weeks, I've seen several businessmen interviewed about opening up a business office in China, being forced to give copies of all their software and intellectual property to the Chinese government, and then having to go out of business because a Chinese business opened up right an office right across the street using the same intellectual property. The American company was simply swindled. And this happens all the time to American countries, as well as European and Canadian countries.
Kudlow said that the situation with China is so bad that he's been forced to change his own position on trade. He was in government as far back as the Reagan administration, and he's always been on record as opposing tariffs, but "I've come to this position, because the problem [with China] is getting worse."
The shocking part of the interview is the description of how intransient the Chinese are during the negotiations that have been going on for months. The interviewer (Jim Kramer) said that he had been assuming all along that there had been progress in the negotiations with China, with give and take on both sides, but Kudlow referred to the "so-called talks" as if they had been nothing more than a charade to the Chinese:
"I went to Beijing with our team, and then when China came to the US, I was involved in those discussions and a dinner, I sat next to Liu He [Xi Jinping's top economic adviser], and his young assistants, And I think they're sincere, so there's hope.On the other hand, I do not think president Xi [Jinping] at the moment has any intention of following through on the discussions we've made, and I think the president [Trump] is so dissatisfied with China on these so-called talks, that he is keeping the pressure on, and I support that. ...
That stuff has to be fixed. We can't let China steal our technology. Those are our family jewels. What is it that makes America the greatest economy in the world? It is our innovative and inventive use of technology advances. This is Schumpeter's idea of creative destruction writ large. We can't let them do that.
They haven't responded at all. Not one basis point to our request to do something about the theft of intellectual property, and the forced divestiture of our intellectual property."
Kudlow said, "By the way, the whole world agrees with us. I mean Europe agrees with us, Canada, everyone knows this is true." He added that he has many sources in China, and even they agree.
Kudlow concluded by saying that Trump will not back down on this issue:
"Now, for POTUS -- I'm going to defend him here, lock, stock and barrel. We've had Republican and Democratic presidents in the past, make these complaints to China, even take these complaints to the World Trade Organization. But they never follow through. They say it, nothing happens, life goes on, the situation gets worse. This guy, President Trump, has the biggest backbone -- and this something I've admired for him in other places -- he will not let go of this point. Nor, should he, in my opinion."
After the interview, the interviewer Jim Kramer said that he found the interview shocking, because the Chinese are refusing to make any compromises at all. He pointed to the recent case of the Chinese company ZTE where President Trump had gone to a great deal of trouble to keep the company from going bankrupt, based on a personal request by President Xi. Kramer said that Trump must be really furious to have gone to great lengths to do that, and got nothing in return from Xi. CNBC and Reuters
Larry Kudlow's interview on Wednesday was well-planned and well thought out, and laid out major policy objectives of the Trump administration. During the interview, there were often long pauses between sentences as he chose his words carefully. Kudlow could have simply made a general statement that the negotiations with China were on track and "we hope something will come out of them soon."
Instead, in coordination with the White House, he made a careful condemnation of China's trade practices and negotiating attitudes. This was done on purpose, and it's a shot across the bow by the Trump administration at President Xi and the Chinese Communist Party.
We live at a time in history where there's never been more hysterical nonsense in the media, and there's never been more total, abject ignorance about what's going on in the world.
One comment I've heard probably hundreds of times is: "How could Trump give Kim Jong-un prestige by meeting with him in Singapore, without getting a firm commitment in advance to denuclearize?" The question doesn't even make sense. Demanding denuclearization in advance would have been refused. Trump is a master negotiator and deal-maker, and his assessment was that the only way to convince Kim to denuclearize in the future is to build up his prestige in the present, and convince him that the US is not an enemy.
It's worth noting here that, as I've been saying for many, many months, there is no possibility whatsoever that North Korea will denuclearize, now or in the future. But I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to try to prevent World War III, even if preventing World War III is impossible.
A web site reader recently asked me:
"I have to wonder whether you're serious or just pulling my leg. What possible benefit is the ad hoc Trumpist foreign policy to the US or the world at large? We need leverage with the DPRK [North Korea], and the only leverage available is China. Trump's solution: start at a trade war with them, and make it bitter."
Once again, this question makes no sense. The leverage we have against North Korea is the very harsh sanctions that Trump imposed on North Korea, with China's cooperation. China's cooperation was a huge foreign policy decision by China, requiring buy-in from many agencies in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), based on deeply entrenched objectives that won't change because of this trade dispute. In addition, master negotiator Trump gained leverage over Xi by agreeing to his request to save ZTE.
What I've seen repeatedly since Trump has been in office is that his foreign policy is completely consistent with the Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for years -- that we're headed for a world war with China, and Russia will be our ally and China's enemy. Trump understands these analyses through Steve Bannon, who is an expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics. People who become hysterical because of a tweet or a press conference really have no clue what's going on in the world, but what I've seen is that Trump does -- based on actions, not words.
As I said above, Trump is well aware that we're headed for a world war with China, and he's trying to prevent him. Preventing it is impossible, but I'm not going to criticize Trump for trying.
In writing this article, I've described many bottom lines and many red lines. North Korea will not denuclearize. China will not back down from stealing America's intellectual property. And Trump will not back down from the trade dispute. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're a typical tit for tat escalation sequence that leads to a generational crisis war. The only other choice is appeasement, and that will lead to war as well, possibly even more quickly. Trump is aware of all this, and he's trying to prevent it, but it's the world that's upside down and out of control. Bloomberg
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jul-18 World View -- Trump administration signals that trade war with China will escalate sharply thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Jul-2018)
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ISIS-K claims credit for killing 15 Taliban, including commander
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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"ISIS Khorasan" (ISIS-K, "Wilayah Khorasan"), the Afghanistan branch of ISIS, is claiming credit for attacking the house of a Taliban commander in the eastern province of Nangarhar of Afghanistan, killing 15 Taliban militants, including the commander, known as Saba Gul or Mohammad Khorasani.
Fighting between the Taliban and ISIS-K has significantly escalated in recent weeks, as they vie for control of the country's east, along the border with Pakistan. In June, ISIS-K claimed the killing of 25 people with a suicide bombing at a gathering of Taliban members and local people in Nangarhar province during the three-day Eid ceasefire.
The Taliban launched offensives in the region late in June, claiming that they had cleared out bases of ISIS-K fighters in nearby villages. Dozens of fighters on both sides were killed, as hundreds of civilians were forced to flee the fighting between the two groups, as the clashes carried on for several days.
One unnamed ISIS fighter was quoted as saying:
"Yes the war between the Afghan Taliban and Islamic State branch in Khorasan has escalated. More attacks and more casualties, but in war there are casualties. [The Taliban] are not able to get firm control over [the areas they recapture] because soon they will be repelled back by the fighters of Islamic State."
The Taliban in the past have been reluctant to publicize their clashes with ISIS, believing it risks exaggerating the power of the group. But that's changing now, as ISIS-K becomes more prominent. An unnamed Taliban source says:
"The Taliban hit ISIS fighters hard and finished their presence in Laghman, while ISIS fighters were also killed in Kunar and Nangarhar. The Taliban will deal with them with an iron hand in future because they are exceeding their activities in the region. ...ISIS has presented a negative image of Islam and created an environment of fear among the Muslims.
[ISIS attacked the Taliban] under the pretext of Islamic Shariah law and calling Taliban apostates thus creating confusion among the locals and other supporters of Afghan Taliban. In this way they are paving the way for the US and allied forces to create cracks in the unity of the Afghan Taliban, but so far they failed."
The Taliban claim that ISIS fighters are distracting the Taliban from completing their mission -- to defeat the US-led coalition. Reuters and The National (UAE)
The Afghan government estimates that there are as many as 3,000 foreign fighters in ISIS-K in Afghanistan, many of them coming from Pakistan and Uzbekistan. However, accurate estimates are difficult because the Taliban and other militant groups are fluid, and members often move from one group to another.
ISIS-K fighters began appearing in Afghanistan in 2015, when ISIS in Syria and Iraq was considered highly stylish and fashionable among the atrocity-committing set. Many Taliban militants switched allegiance to ISIS because it was a better brand name, newer and more exciting. They were joined by foreign fighters from Uzbekistan and other countries. Starting in 2016, especially as ISIS came under attack in Iraq and Syria, foreign fighters who had gone to Syria to fight against Bashar al-Assad began to return to other countries, including Afghanistan, to continue the fight.
It's not believed that there was ever much communication between ISIS-K and ISIS leaders in Iraq and Syria, as the relationship is more like a shared brand name. To some extent, there is a parallel between Syria and Afghanistan, as local militants in the two countries join al-Qaeda and the Taliban, respectively, while foreign fighters join ISIS.
In both cases, the local and ISIS militants have conflicting objectives. Generally speaking, the local militants have purely local nationalist objectives, while the ISIS militants have the objective of establishing a multinational caliphate.
In Syria, the local militant group is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and they spent years fighting alongside moderate rebels to defeat Bashar al-Assad. ISIS, on the other hand, established a caliphate in Raqqa and took control of as much territory as possible, in Syria and Iraq. Bashar al-Assad and its principal backers in Russia and Iran indirectly supported ISIS by not targeting them, because ISIS was fighting the moderate rebels who were also al-Assad's enemies. It was left to the American forces, backing the Kurds and Iraqis, to finally expel ISIS from Raqqa and Mosul, and that fight is still going on.
In Afghanistan, the situation is similar. The Taliban are radicalized ethnic Pashtuns, fighting against their old enemies from the 1990s civil war, the Northern Alliance of Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras. ISIS-K are foreign fighters and disaffected Taliban fighters who have pledged allegiance to ISIS in the name of the great multinational caliphate fantasy. The Taliban, on the other hand, have set as their primary objective forcing the US-led coalition to withdraw.
In terms of theology, ISIS considers the local nationalists to be apostates, mainly because they make alliances with other ISIS enemies, such as Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. However, ISIS saves its strongest vitriol for the Shia Muslims, as in this statement from January 2016:
"Initiated by a sly Jew, [the Shia] are an apostate sect drowning in worship of the dead, cursing the best companions and wives of the Prophet, spreading doubt on the very basis of the religion (the Koran and the Sunnah), defaming the very honor of the Prophet , and preferring their “twelve” imams to the prophets and even to Allah! ... Thus, the Rafidah [another word for Shias] are mushrik [polytheist] apostates who must be killed wherever they are to be found, until no Rafidi walks on the face of earth, even if the jihad claimants despise such."
In Afghanistan, many analysts believe that ISIS poses a greater threat today than the Taliban. There have been big spikes in terrorist violence in the last few months, and this is attributed to a competition between the two groups.
The strongest fighting force within the Taliban is the Haqqani network, which has been blamed for the most audacious attacks in Kabul. The Haqqani network has historical ties to Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency. VOA (18-Nov-2017) and Washington Post (21-Mar-2018) and The Diplomat (29-Jan-2016) and Military Times
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jul-18 World View -- Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Jul-2018)
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'Ghazi Force' takes credit for attack on 11th anniversary of Red Mosque siege
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
About 149 people were killed, including nine children, and hundreds injured at a terror attack on Friday in Mastung, near Quetta, the capital of the Balochistan province in southwest Pakistan. This was the second worst terror attack in Pakistan's history, and it occurs as a nationwide general election approaches on July 25.
The attack targeted an election rally for the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP). Among the 149 killed were the BAP candidate and Baloch leader Siraj Raisani.
The worst occurred in 2014, when Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP, Pakistan Taliban) attacked an army school in Peshawar in northwest Pakistan on Tuesday, killing 141 people, 132 of them schoolchildren, most of them children of soldiers. ( "17-Dec-14 World View -- Pakistan Taliban crosses a red line with mass slaughter of army children") The 2014 attack was such a shock to Pakistan, especially to the army, that the army immediately began a long-term counter-terrorism operation directed at TTP.
The new attack may not have the same effect of shock as the 2014 attack, because of a confluence of events. In the hours after the suicide attack occurred on Friday, the country was riveted by a scene going on at the other end of the country -- the return of the charismatic former prime minister Nawaz Sharif from self-imposed exile in London. Beginning in 1990, Sharif has been prime minister of Pakistan for three non-consecutive terms. But Sharif was charged with corruption early in 2017 because of revelations in the leaked Panama Papers, and he left the country after being forced to step down by the Pakistani Supreme Court. Sharif had been promising to return to Pakistan to defend himself against the charges, and on Friday his plane landed and, in the midst of crowds of thousands of supporters, he was arrested and taken off to jail.
So with all that going on, the terror attack in Balochistan didn't get much media coverage, and so there wasn't the level of public outrage and shock that had followed the 2014 terror attack. This is all the more surprising because there were two more terror attacks last week. On Tuesday, a suicide bombing in Peshawar at a rally for the Awami National Party (ANP) killed 21, including candidate Haroon Bilour. On Friday, a bomb roadside bomb killed four people in the northern town of Bannu.
Terrorist violence in Pakistan has ebbed since the military began counter-terrorism operations against the TTP after the 2014 attack. However, with three attacks in the last week alone, and with the election less than two weeks again, Pakistanis are concerned about a new surge in violence. Dawn (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and BBC and Indian Express
The terror group "Ghazi Force Lal Masjid," linked to Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP, Pakistan Taliban) claimed credit for the attack. This represents a resurgence of a group linked to a major event that occurred almost exactly eleven years ago.
On July 11, 2007, a spectacular 8-day siege ended after 36 hours in a mosque complex in Islamabad known as the "Red Mosque" or "Lal Masjid." It had all begun the previous January, when dozens of female seminary students studying and living at the madrassas within the mosque complex demanded that the government impose Taliban-style sharia law and arrest the prostitutes in downtown Islamabad. After a while, the female students would come out in black burqas with long bamboo sticks and threaten the prostitutes.
The last straw came when dozens of students kidnapped nine people, including six Chinese women and a Chinese man, leading to protests from China. The result was the siege and bloodbath that ended on July 11. It turned out that the Red Mosque had a huge cache of weapons that apparently had been brought there is the last few months.
The leading cleric for the Red Mosque was Imam Abdul Rashid Ghazi who called for his own death to spark an Islamic revolution. He said that he would rather be martyred than give in to the government, and he was killed during the siege. Ghazi said that he had declared war against Pakistan's government for entering into an alliance with the United States following the 9/11 attacks. The standoff left more than 100 militants dead, along with 11 armed forces personnel. It was a significant turning point in terrorism in Pakistan.
Al-Qaeda leaders quickly demanded revenge, and Ghazi's death has become a global inspiration to other jihadist movements. Six months later, on December 14, 2007, some 40 militant leaders, commanding 40,000 militant fighters, gathered in South Waziristan to form a united front under the banner of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Now, on the tenth anniversary of the Red Mosque siege, the Ghazi Force Lal Masjid has struck again. Dawn (9-July-2017) and Khaama News (Afghanistan)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jul-18 World View -- Pakistan terrorism grows as July 25 election approaches thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Jul-2018)
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Private property ownership allowed under Cuba's new constitution
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Cuba's new constitution will recognize private property for the first time since the fanatical Fidel Castro abolished private property after the Cuban Communist Revolution of 1959. Cuba's current constitution, adopted in 1976, recognizes four forms of property: state, cooperative, farmer, personal and joint-venture property. The new category of private property will permit Cubans to own business-related property.
Despite the insistence that Cuba is still a full-fledged, glorious Socialist state, ever since Fidel Castro stepped down in 2008, the two new leaders that replaced him have been moving Cuba in the direction of capitalism. This is in contrast to Venezuela and North Korea, whose Socialist leaders continue to move their countries toward self-destruction.
In 2010, when Cuba's economy was in shambles, and president Raúl Castro announced the end of the Socialist economy. The government would lay off 500,000 government workers (Socialist bureaucrats) and privatize many businesses.
In particular, Marx's Socialist Principle Of Distribution ("From each according to abilities, to each according to needs") was abandoned at the time, with the announcement: We must reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to each according to the quantity and quality of work provided."
Within two years of the 2010 announcement, the size of the state payroll had been reduced by 20%, and more than 200,000 people had moved into private enterprise. For the first time, Havana was population with street stalls selling everything from pirate DVDs to kitchen implements. The problem, however, was these self-employed small business owners were not permitted to own the street stalls that they had set up. The same was true of other entrepreneurs as well. Guardian (London, 6-Nov-2011) and Granma (Cuba, 20-Apr)
Since 2010, the number of self-employed people in areas like tourism and transport has nearly quadrupled to more than 591,000, around 13% of Cuba’s overall workforce.
In April of this year, Raúl Castro stepped down, and Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez became president. In a speech in April, Castro previewed the changes that Díaz-Canel was about to implement:
"We will continue to expand self-employed work – as I have mentioned in different speeches before this parliament – which represents an alternative source of employment within the framework of current law, and far from signifying a process of neoliberal privatization of social property, will allow the state to free itself of managing activities of a non-strategic nature to the country’s development. The experiment with non-agricultural cooperatives will also continue.Significant results have been achieved in both areas, but also revealed are mistakes in management, control and monitoring, which have led to the emergence of various forms of indiscipline such as tax evasion, in a country where, before these measures were applied, hardly anyone paid taxes; criminal acts and regulatory violations, with the aim of getting rich quick, a problem which was not addressed in a timely manner and resulted in the need to modify various regulations linked to this sector."
This was a preview of the new constitution that was announced by president Mario Díaz-Canel on Saturday. Here is part of the announcement:
"The economic system that it reflects maintains as essential principles the socialist property of all the people on the fundamental means of production and planning as the main component of management, to which is added the recognition of the role of the market and of new forms of ownership, between they are private, in correspondence with the Conceptualization of the Cuban Economic and Social Socialist Development Model and the Guidelines of the Economic and Social Policy of the Party and the Revolution, as a result of the consultation with broad sectors of society. ...Regarding private property on the land, a special regime is maintained, with limitations on its transmission and the preferential right of the State to its acquisition through its fair price."
So the new constitution allows entrepreneurs to keep their commercial property, but the last clause means that the dictators in the government can still confiscate property at any time. The Conversation (18-Apr) and Granma (Cuba) (Trans) and TelesurTV
Castro's speech in April referred to "mistakes in management, control and monitoring." The fear of a quickly growing private marketplace that might threaten the power of the dictatorship has motivated harsh restrictions and regulations. The government froze issuing licenses for some popular business categories last year, and new regulations forbid a single person from holding more than one business license. This has already discouraged badly needed investment in businesses, and has even forced some business owners to close businesses because business licenses had to be returned.
Investment is the reason why the economic changes are being made in the first place. Cuba has decaying road infrastructure, a national housing deficit, food shortages, and public transport problems.
Under the fanatical Fidel Castro, Cuba's economy was a continuing disaster, first propped up by the Soviet Union, and later by Venezuela. Now that Venezuela is an economic disaster, the payments are getting smaller, and Cuba needs money.
Cuban officials want international investors, but no one is willing to invest money in Cuba unless they believe that they can make a profit and take the money out. So really, Cuba's new regulations restricting business may may actually cancel out the advantages of owning private property.
It's also good to remember that returning Cuba to capitalism does not make it a democracy. I've written about many countries that illustrate this. Nazi Germany was a capitalist dictatorship. China today resembles a capitalist dictatorship. For example, Cameroon has a capitalist economy, but the Francophone government still commits daily atrocities on the Anglophone community, including extrajudicial jailings, mass slaughter, rape, torture, and burning down entire villages. Syria has a capitalist economy, but the government of Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad continues full-scale genocide and ethnic cleaning of hated Sunni populations.
Still, Cuba and Venezuela are a study in contrasts. Venezuela is pushing forward with full-scale Socialism, destroying the country, turning it into a military fascist state, starving the population, and driving millions of families into neighboring countries as refugees. Venezuela has become a worldwide poster child for what a disaster Socialism always is, 100% of the time.
Perhaps because Venezuela is such a disaster, Cuba is taking a different path, looking for a way to maintain the dictatorship, but at the same time opening up the economy by abandoning Socialism in order to encourage foreign investments. A dictatorship without Socialism, as in the case of Cuba, isn't as disastrous as a dictatorship with Socialism, as in the case of Venezuela, so at least Cuba is choosing the lesser of two evils. Reuters and Havana Times and AFP
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jul-18 World View -- Socialist Cuba moves to Capitalism, while Socialist Venezuela moves to self-destruction thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Jul-2018)
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Egypt mediates Israel-Gaza ceasefire in biggest escalation since 2014 war
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Israel and Gaza appear close to full-scale war today for the first time since 2014, despite the announcement that both Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza had agreed to a ceasefire mediated by Egypt. However, it's unclear whether the ceasefire is holding.
According to Israel's military (IDF), since Friday afternoon Hamas has launched 200 rockets and mortar shells across the border into Israel, causing property damage and three injuries.
As a precaution, the IDF instructed Israelis living near the Gaza border to remain within a 15-second radius from bomb shelters or safe rooms.
In retaliation, Israeli aircraft on Saturday attacked more than 40 targets in Gaza in the most extensive daytime assault since the 67 day war with Gaza in 2014. The IDF says that targets included urban warfare training facilities, weapon storage warehouse, training compounds, command centers, and offices in Hamas's Battalion headquarters. This was the first time recently that Israel struck targets in the heart of Gaza city. Palestinians said two teens were killed and 14 injured in the Israeli strikes.
Every Friday after midday prayers for several months, Gaza has been holding demonstrations along the border fence with Israel, with the stated objective for Palestinians to exercise their "Right of Return," to regain the lands where their ancestors had lived, prior to the 1947 war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The demonstrations have been mostly peaceful, but activists have also tried to break through the fence, with the intent of attacking Israelis in their homes.
In recent weeks, the protests have been supplemented by incendiary kites and balloons, which float over the border fence and land in forests and farmland, causing massive fires. Israel's army has been baffled by these devices, and has been responding by striking Hamas targets in Gaza. Saturday's attack was the biggest attack since the 2014 full-scale war.
According to an IDF spokesman, the aims of Saturday's operation were to end the large-scale border protests, end the incendiary kites and balloons, and end the rocket and mortar fire. That appears to be a great deal to hope for. Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel and BBC and Reuters
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Late on Saturday evening, Israel's army announced that military exercises will be taking place across the country for the next week, starting immediately on Sunday morning. The announcement said that the exercises were "planned in advance," but the abrupt nature of the announcement indicates that imminent concerns.
It's believed that the it may be in response to the following announcement that appeared in the Syrian governments al-Masdar news on Thursday:
"The Syrian Arab Army’s shock troops have moved from the Daraa Governorate to the Al-Quneitra front, following the military’s recent achievements in southwest Syria.According to the official Facebook of Colonel Nizar Qindi, his elite shock troops from the 9th Division have moved to the Al-Quneitra Governorate, today, after a short deployment in the Daraa Governorate. ...
The 9th Division has operated in the Al-Quneitra Governorate before, but they were later redeployed to the Damascus and Daraa fronts to aid in those offensives.
Also redeploying alongside the 9th Division was the National Defense Forces (NDF) of Al-Sweida, Damascus, and Izraa.
These reinforcements should give the Syrian Arab Army and their allies a major military boost in the Al-Quneitra Governorate, as they make their final preparations for this operation.
In the coming days, the Syrian Army is expected to kickoff their long-awaited Al-Quneitra offensive, as they look to conclude their southwest Syria operations before month’s end."
The National Defense Forces (NDF) referred to in the statement are a collection of militias that the Syrian regime set up in 2012, organized by Iran and Hezbollah.
While Israel's army is struggling to deal with the increasing tensions on the Gaza border, the army is also facing the possibility of a northern war with Iran and Hezbollah along the border with Syria.
It's quite possible that Israel's army is not prepared for a two-front war. This could explain Saturday evening's abrupt announcement of military exercises in cities across Israel.
Syria's Quneitra offensive is expected to begin within the next two days, before or during the summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Al-Masdar News (Damascus) and Debka (Israel) and YNet (Israel) and Debka
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jul-18 World View -- Israel prepares for war on two fronts, Gaza and Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Jul-2018)
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Kenya may lose its Mombasa seaport to China because of 'Debt Book Diplomacy'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Kenyan workers on Kenya railway line begin abused by Chinese masters
 |
A series of reports in Kenyan newspapers being described as "explosive" accuse the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), which is responsible for developing and operating Kenya's Special Gauge Railway (SGR), of "neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination" towards Kenya workers. The SGR train is the Madaraka Express, which operates between Kenya's Port of Mombasa and the capital city Nairobi.
Racism is rampant, to the point where the Chinese have apparently set up an apartheid system. At the staff canteen, Kenyans may not sit at the same tables as Chinese. Kenyans may not share the company's staff vans used by the Chinese. All the signs are written in Chinese, apparently with no translations available, to prevent the Kenyans from doing many of the jobs.
Although Kenyan workers have at least civil engineering degrees, the Chinese masters order them to perform only menial tasks, well below their skill levels. If a Kenyan refuses to perform menial work as ordered, he can be physically punished. Furthermore, when a Kenyan and a Chinese employee perform the same job, the Chinese employee's salary is four times as high.
There are 40 Kenyan locomotive drivers employed by the company, but the Chinese do not actually let them drive the train. The Chinese are supposed to be training Kenyans to do the technical jobs, but according to one Kenyan driver who has been working at the company for over a year, "We just sit at the back and watch. There is no actual transfer of skills that is happening here."
Chinese workers blatantly violate the rules -- smoking inside the trains, urinating on the tracks, and other violations that are ignored for the Chinese workers but would immediately get a Kenyan worker fired.
The Chinese contractor CRBC is apparently also guilty of corruption and financial fraud. Some employees have also discovered that the Chinese contractor has been reporting different figures to the Kenya Revenue Authority for tax purposes.
Kenya's government have apparently sided with the Chinese contractor, against the Kenyan workers, blaming the Kenyan workers for having a poor work ethic. According to government spokesman Eric Kiraithe;
"I am not saying any worker should be discriminated and humiliated in the workplace but we must all appreciate that the operation of a modern train is a profession that calls for military standard discipline.Inward-looking, haki yetu ["our rights" in Swahili] centered personalities have no place in this kind of profession, not now or in the future. They are the first crop of Kenyans employed on this project and the culture they entrench will determine whether in less than 10 years we shall depend on them."
The news reports have caused a major scandal in Kenya. Kenya Railways, the agency mandated to supervise the Chinese operator of the railway project said it was launching an investigation into the claims, giving CRBC 72 hours to submit a report. Kenyans News and Shanghaiist and Standard Media (Kenya) and Nairobi Wire and Standard Media (Kenya)
China is building infrastructure projects in many countries as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China does not build a project in a country for free. It loans the money at harsh terms with high interest rates. Furthermore, it demands that almost all of the work be done by Chinese workers, who get paid out of the money that has been loaned, so most of the money that China loans to the country is returned to China in the form of remittances and payments for services, but the country still has that debt, and has to repay the same money to China again, with interest.
Theoretically, the Chinese workers are supposed to train the local workers, and responsibility for the project is supposed to be turned over to the country within a few years. But as we're seeing in the case of Kenya's SGR, the Chinese masters are forcing the Kenyans into menial jobs, are segregating themselves from the Kenyans, are maintaining all signs in Chinese so that the Kenyans are not being trained.
This is being called "Debt Book Diplomacy" (as opposed to "checkbook diplomacy," which the US used to be accused of). The poster child for how it works is the Port of Hambantota, a Chinese infrastructure project in Sri Lanka, funded with a loan from China, with almost all the labor performed by Chinese workers. Sri Lanka was unable to repay the loan, and the government was forced to give the Port to China. So now Sri Lanka has a large seaport owned by China, and a large Chinese enclave with hundreds of Chinese families, with no benefit to itself and to its own people.
Kenya has been going on a public borrowing binge. Kenya's public debt is over $50 billion, including $4 billion in loans from China for the SGR.
Theoretically, the Madaraka Express, the SGR train that operates between the Port of Mombasa and the capital city Nairobi, is supposed to pay for itself, just like Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport. The World Bank in 2013 warned Kenya that the railway project was a bad deal, but Kenya went ahead with it anyway.
However, it now emerges that in the first year of operation, the only managed to bring in $10 million in revenues, far short of the fantasy amounts that were originally promised. Furthermore, even that amount is dependent on the government forcing businesses to use the railway, even when it's not the best choice.
According to David Shinn, a former diplomat and a professor of international affairs at George Washington University:
"Keep in mind that this is a loan from a Chinese bank. A Chinese company by contract is required to build the projects on an enormous amount of that loan money that’s going to go straight into the pocket of a Chinese state-owned company. It’s going to have a percentage of Chinese labor.And most of the material that goes into the project will be manufactured in China. So, Chinese companies are making a profit on that. There are two or three wins for China, you know, [and] one win for Kenya and Ethiopia, being that they get a railway built that no other country is offering to build for them."
Kenya is not able to make its debt payments in these circumstances. Rumors are beginning to spread that Kenya will be forced to give up the Mombasa seaport to the Chinese, just as Sri Lanka was forced to give up the Hambantota seaport. The government is denying these rumors, but has not explained how the debt will be paid. Soko Directory (Kenya) and Standard Media (Kenya) and VOA and Center for Global Development (4-Mar-2018)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jul-18 World View -- China's railway contractor in Kenya accused of 'neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(14-Jul-2018)
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Cameroon continues on path to full-scale civil war
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A horrendously graphic video that has gone viral on social media depicts Cameroon Francophone (French-speaking) government soldiers in uniform blindfolding, shooting and killing two women, as well as the two babies that they're carrying. One of the uniformed men says in French that it is a heavy burden executing people but they don't have another option.
According to Amnesty International:
"The Cameroonian authorities’ initial claim that this shocking video is fake simply doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. We can provide credible evidence to the contrary. Given the gravity of these horrific acts – the cold blooded and calculated slaughter of women and young children – these hasty and dismissive denials cast serious doubt over whether any investigation will be genuine. It is imperative that a proper, impartial investigation is undertaken and those responsible for these abhorrent acts are brought to justice."
The claim by Cameroon's government that a "proper, impartial investigation" will be conducted is not credible, in light of repeated atrocities by the Francophone government over the last two years.
These government atrocities began in November 2016, when the Francophone (French-speaking) Cameroon government security forces began beating and killing peaceful anti-government demonstrators in the South Cameroons, the Anglophone (English-speaking) regions of Cameroon. The demonstrators were protesting systematic bias, discrimination and marginalization towards Anglophones by the Francophone government. For example, schoolteachers in the Anglophone regions were forbidden from teaching any courses in English.
The Cameroon government, led by the 85 year old president Paul Biya, has stepped up the torture, slaughter and other atrocities continually since then, with numerous videos and reports on social media documenting the atrocities. The level of atrocities ticked up considerably in October, when the Anglophone separatists demanded independence for the Southern Cameroons, calling it Ambazonia.
There have been numerous videos posted on social media showing atrocities committed since then. Another video, posted by the BBC, is a compilation of verified videos from social media accounts showing everything from torture to entire villages being burned down. Africa News and Amnesty International and YouTube - Extrajudicial execution of women and children and YouTube - BBC - Cameroon military atrocities, village burnings
It's increasingly clear that the Francophone government in Cameroon is conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Anglophone people in the Southern Cameroons. Hundreds of thousands of people have had to flee their homes, and tens of thousands have fled across the border into Nigeria. Nigerians who used to conduct business in Southern Cameroons are now abandoning their businesses and returning home in droves.
Cameroon's last generational crisis war was the "UPC Revolt," 1956-1960, which was a bloody civil war by communists attacking the French government in the Cameroun colony. It has now been exactly 58 years since the ending climax of the UPC Revolt. Generational Dynamics research has found that 58 years is the minimum and most common time period from the end of one crisis war till the beginning of the next, since 58 years is exactly the point where the survivors who were traumatized by the war almost all disappear (retire or die), all at once, and are replaced in positions of power by younger generations of people with no personal memory of the atrocities of the previous crisis war, and therefore have no fear of starting a new one.
Because of the flood of Anglophones from Cameroon entering Nigeria, some Nigerian activists are urging Nigeria's government to try to mediate in Cameroon, even though Nigeria has to deal with Boko Haram and bloody fights between farmers and herders that have been widely reported in the news. Abdul Oroh, a lawyer and civil rights activist from Nigeria, summarizes the situation:
"Specifically, the Francophone Cameroon is trying to dominate and super-impose itself on the Anglophone Cameroon. They had two legal systems but there is a policy of assimilation which is threatening to obliterate the Anglophone culture and legal system. One of the lawyers told me that as a lawyer, if you file a case at the Ministry of Justice in Cameroon, unless it us written in French, they won’t treat the case. What you now do is to go and look for somebody who can translate it into French. There is so much anger and bitterness in that country. ...We were under military rule when we intervened in apartheid South Africa. We were under military rule when we stepped out to restore democracy in Sierra Leone and Liberia. We have been carrying out peace-keeping operations, not just within but even outside Africa. We are talking about our immediate neighbors whose citizens are pouring into our country as refugees on daily basis. These refugees are putting pressures on our lean resources. If we don’t help them to solve that problem, it will continue and could get to a stage when it could even become a threat to our own security too. So, it is not a question of moral right because human lives are involved in this conflict. It is true that we have our own challenges but I am not saying we should deploy our troops there to help one side to defeat the other side. I am saying we should help them to get to talk, negotiate peace and resolve their differences amicably."
Unfortunately, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, attempts to mediate and negotiate will not work. What is happening in Cameroon is the beginnings of a generational crisis civil war. A crisis war is a force of nature that cannot be stopped until it burns itself out, typically after around five years, with an explosive genocidal climax of some kind that horrifies everyone so much that it brings the war to an end. Cameroon is nowhere near that explosive climax at this time. New Telegraph (Nigeria) and AFP and Deutsche Welle and Task and Purpose
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jul-18 World View -- Viral video shows Francophone Cameroon soldiers killing women and children thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Jul-2018)
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Haiti people riot after announcement of fuel price rises during World Cup match
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Friday, as Haitians were watching the World Cup game between Brazil and Belgium, Haiti's government announced the end of large subsidies on fuel prices, resulting in dramatic price increases -- 38% for gasoline, 47% for diesel fuel, and 51% for kerosene. The increases were blamed on the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The price increases for fuel appeared to affect everyone. The gasoline prices affected those in the middle or upper classes who own automobiles, the diesel prices affected businesspeople who use diesel fuel for trucks and heavy equipment, and the kerosene price increases hit poor people especially hard, as they burn kerosene to light up their homes, lacking electricity.
Haiti was the poorest country in the world, even before the major earthquake the country suffered in 2010. There was a huge outpouring of international aid after the earthquake, including a large fund organized by former president Bill Clinton, but none of the people seem to have benefited, and almost all the money was apparently lost in corruption.
The government had apparently hoped that by announcing the price increases during Friday's World Cup game, nobody would notice. That turned out to be a major miscalculation. Most Haitians fervently supported Brazil over Belgium in Friday's World Cup game, and were shocked when the game ended in a loss for Brazil. The rioting began five minutes after the game ended. Burning tires blocked major routes in Haiti's capital city Port-au-Prince, and sporadic gunfire could be heard around the city. Store and car windows in the affluent sections of Port-au-Prince were reportedly smashed. Affluent hotels were also targeted. Three people were killed on Friday.
As the rioting became increasingly violent, Haiti's president Jovenel Moïse, accompanied by his wife Martine, appeared in a televised address to the nation on Saturday evening:
"You sent me the message and I got it. I corrected what needed to be corrected.... I asked the Government to reconsider the decision to withdraw subsidies on the prices of petroleum products. The Prime Minister did it. The price of fuel remains what it was before, throughout the national territory. There is no longer an increase in gas prices. ... Now I ask you to stay calm and go home. ... I know that it is to me that you gave the power, but I cannot run alone. I have to have a lot of people around me before making a decision."
The protests didn't end. On Monday, workers went on strike and shut the capital down. Many analysts have stated that the continuing riots are being caused by massive government corruption. According to one NGO analyst:
"Having had over ten deployments to Haiti following the earthquake in 2010, including during their elections, I do not think that the increase in fuel prices is the root cause of this crisis.They know that sacrifices have to be made to improve their economy, and they have made them in the past. However, after suffering for so long, the Haitian people hate being tricked
Their political candidates promised to address mismanagement and corruption if they were elected. The people expected improvements in government efficiency, and arrests of those accused of corruption, before being targeted for austerity.
However, to have austerity forced on them, without the promised efficiency and arrests, appeared to be too much for the people to bear from a government that promised to be different."
The United States has warned Americans living in Haiti to shelter in place in their homes, to avoid the violence. A marine security detachment of 13 marines has arrived in Haiti to provide security at the US embassy there.
Both the United States and Canada have policies to deport Haitians who fled from the violence following the 2010 earthquake. Activists in Canada is demanding that because of the current violence, deportations back to Haiti should immediately end, and Haiti should be put back on the government list of countries to which migrants may not be returned. AFP (7-July) and Barbados Today and Military.com and Canadian Broadcasting
The fuel price increases announced on Friday were caused by a termination of subsidies as demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in return for $96 million in loans and grants from the IMF and the World Bank.
When the price increases were announced, Prime Minister Guy Lafontant said, “I ask for your patience because our administration has a vision, a clear program." He defended the price increases because the subsidies make Haiti's fuel prices the lowest in Latin America among the non-petroleum producing nations. Furthermore he claimed that many people regularly crossed the border from neighboring Dominican Republic, where oil prices are 43% higher, to take advantage of the subsidized prices in Haiti, which meant that the subsidies were supporting both Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
The austerity demands were in an agreement that Haiti signed with the IMF in February. The agreement defines a "Staff-Monitored Program" (SMP), where IMF closely monitors government activities in Haiti in return from the loans and grants. The agreement requires that it is necessary "to eliminate excessive subsidies, including on retail fuel." According to the agreement:
"“Under the SMP, fiscal policy will focus on mobilizing revenues and rationalizing current expenditure, to make room for critical public investment in infrastructure, health, education and social services. This will include measures to improve tax collection and efficiency, and to eliminate excessive subsidies, including on retail fuel. Other reforms will focus on stemming the losses of the public electricity company (EDH), which in recent years have amounted to a sizeable portion of the public deficit, by improving the efficiency of billing, and by reforming contracting practices. Fiscal reforms also aim to increase the transparency of public accounts. These reforms are to be accompanied by a substantial package of mitigating measures to protect the most vulnerable members of society. ...IMF staff will work closely with the authorities to monitor progress in the implementation of their economic program.."
By Wednesday, relative calm had been restored in Haiti. The president and prime minister are under pressure to resign, and it's not known how the IMF will react, now that the subsidies have been restored. Atlanta Black Star and IMF (27-Feb-2018) and Miami Herald
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jul-18 World View -- Haiti blames IMF for fuel price increases triggering riots thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Jul-2018)
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Tensions grow between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nakhchivan enclave
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been rising quickly in the last month, as the result of the movement of Azerbaijan military forces in the enclave of Nakhchivan closer to the border with Armenia.
In recent years, most of the military tension between the two countries has been related to Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave of Armenian citizens in the midst of Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan were both part of the Soviet Union empire, but the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, led to a bloody war between the two countries. The war ended in a cease-fire, with the Armenians in control of several Azerbaijani regions, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
In April 2016, the continuing low-level conflict between the two countries spiraled into a major clash, the worst since 1994, with tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters. ( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region") Although that clash ended once again in a cease-fire, low-level violence has been almost continuous since then, with each side typically accusing the other of hundreds of cease-fire violations every week.
The new increase in tensions is not in Nagorno-Karabakh, but in Nakhchivan (Naxçivan), an enclave shown in the southwest corner of the above map. Nakhchivan is recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but it's separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by part of Armenia.
Both of the enclaves Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan were created by Soviet leader Josef Stalin, but supposedly for similar reasons -- to maintain tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia so that Russia could use its time-tested approach of divide and rule. More important, Stalin wanted to deprive Turkey of a direct land bridge to Azerbaijan and Turkic Central Asia while giving Armenia an external Soviet border to Iran.
Starting in 1993, after Turkey and Azerbaijan closed their borders with Armenia, a railway connecting Kars, in far eastern Turkey, to Central Asia to the Caucasus was proposed. Since October 2017, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) Railway has been transporting goods between Kazakhstan and central Europe, with plans to increase its capacity. Jamestown (12-June) and Vice (8-May-2013) and EurasiaNet (29-June)
Some Russian analysts are raising concerns that Azerbaijan is about to invade Armenia from Nakhchivan, based on movements by Azeri troops. If that happens, it would not be long before other countries in the region would begin choosing sides.
During the 1800s, Azerbaijan was a province of Iran, and there's a large Persian population in Azerbaijan, which is particularly heavy in Nakhchivan.
Iran would be able to exert a great deal of control over Nakhchivan if the invasion takes place. Iran controls the only land bridge between Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan, and so limit the supplies being sent to Nakhchivan. Furthermore, Iran supplies much of the water and electricity to Nakhchivan, and could shut them off if desired. However, Iran might support the invasion in return for concessions from Azerbaijan, particularly ending support for the separatist ethnic Azerbaijanis in northern Iran.
Turkey has close relations with Azerbaijan, because of the latter's large Turkic population. Turkey also has a long, bitter history with Armenia, especially after the slaughter and displacement of millions of Armenians in Turkey during World War I. So Turkey might support an Azeri invasion of Armenia.
However, despite the love-fest between Turkey and Russia in Syria in recent years, Turkey and Russia are bitter historic enemies, with centuries of crisis wars in the southern Caucasus, and that enmity would quickly be revived in the case of a new Caucasus war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, Orthodox (Armenian Apostolic) Christians in Armenia are culturally linked to Russian Orthodox Christians, and so Russia would choose the side of Armenia against Azerbaijan.
In the case of an Azerbaijan attack on Armenia, Armenia could invoke a 1997 mutual defense treaty with Russia, and as a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia's version of Nato for the former members of the Soviet Union, Armenia has the right to request assistance of any kind, including direct military, from the entire bloc or from its individual member countries. Russia has also promised to provide Armenia with air-defense radars and missiles.
Furthermore, the "Armenian-Russian United Group of Forces," formed after April 2016 clash, could enter the war. A Russian analysis provides a vitriolic response to complaints from Turkey and Azerbaijan when this force grouping was formed in 2016:
"For example, it is widely known that the creation of the Armenian-Russian grouping of troops from the very first days was sharply criticized by Turkey and Azerbaijan, whose policies agitated Moscow to abandon this idea and see exclusively "devoted allies" in Ankara and Baku. It seems that considering all the "knives in the back" that the Turks of Russia have stumbled upon (from the shot down planes in Syria, the murders of pilots to the brazen act of terrorism against the Russian ambassador to Karlov in Ankara) from 2015-16, the hypocrisy of the opponents of creating and operating the Armenian- Russian groupings of troops are more than noticeable. As well as the fact that Moscow was not and does not intend to listen to the pharisaic calls of Ankara and Baku."
The statement alludes to Turkey's shooting down of a Russian warplane in Syria in November 2015, and the assassination of a Russian diplomat in Ankara in December 2016. Jamestown and Regnum (Russia, 28-June) (Trans) and EurasiaNet (3-July) and Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jul-18 World View -- Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Jul-2018)
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The incendiary kite attacks began with 'The Great March for Return'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday the close of the Kerem Shalom crossing point between Israel and Gaza. The crossing is located near the Egyptian border and serves as the main entry point for commercial goods and humanitarian aid. The closing will lead to sharp cuts in the flow of commercial goods into Gaza, although humanitarian aid, food and medicine will still be allowed through, approved on an individual basis.
The move is retaliation for a wave of incendiary kites and balloons with firebombs attached that have been launched in recent weeks from Gaza into Israel. Israeli authorities say that the firebombs have set fire to 7,000 acres of forest and farmland in southern Israel.
Netanyahu said that additional steps will be taken to try to stop the kites and balloons:
"About Gaza, I have been telling you for some time that I do not intend to publicize in advance all the steps that we are taking or planning. But the Defense Minister and I agree that we will be heavy-handed with the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip – immediately. In a significant step, today we are closing the Kerem Shalom crossing. There will be additional steps; I will not go into details."
An Israeli army statement announced an additional member to be taken immediately. Gaza’s designated fishing zone will be reduced from nine to six nautical miles off the coast throughout the duration of the season. This is a reversal of a decision to expand the fishing zone. The fishing zone is usually six naval miles wide but was temporarily expanded to nine miles three months ago.
The statement added the following:
"If Hamas continues in this direction, these decisions will continue and will intensify. The Hamas terrorist organization is responsible for what is happening inside the Gaza Strip and coming out of it. Hamas is dragging the population of Gaza into the abyss, and the Israeli Defense Forces will continue to work to preserve Israel's security interests."
A Hamas spokesman said that closing the crossing point was "a new crime against humanity added to the black record of the Israeli occupation against our Palestinian people and our people in the Gaza Strip." He added:
"International and regional silence for the crime of the suffocating siege imposed on the Gaza Strip for (nearly) 12 years has encouraged the Israeli enemy to carry on with its criminal measures that violate human rights and international laws. Therefore, Hamas calls on the international community to act immediately and prevent this crime and its dangerous consequences."
However, Israel's Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that the incendiary kites and balloons deserve even harsher punishment that Israel inflicted on Gaza in Operation Protective Edge, the 2014 war in Gaza which killed 74 Israeli soldiers and thousands of Gaza civilians: "The way Hamas is conducting itself, it could pay a heavier price than it did in Protective Edge. This situation, in which every day our woodlands are being burned every day cannot continue,"
Liberman on Monday also announced that he was designing the Lebanon-based al-Quds television network as a terrorist organization, accusing it of being an arm of Hamas. This will permit Israel to impose economic sanctions on the network. However, a spokesman for the network said, "The decision on the al-Quds channel is another step of terror that joins the other violent decisions Israel has taken against the Palestinian people." World Israel News and Middle East Eye and YNet News (Israel) and Times of Israel
The "Great March for Return" began on March 30 of this year, when thousands of Gazans demonstrated near the border fence separating Gaza from Israel and sometimes attempting to break through the fence. The objective was for Palestinians to exercise their "Right of Return," to regain the lands where their ancestors had lived, prior to the 1947 war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
When the Great March for Return began, Israeli authorities were concerned that if a group of Gaza activists broke through the fence, they would attack Israeli homes. Israel's army retaliated first with tear gas and then with live gunfire. During the first march, 16 Palestinians were killed, and hundreds were wounded.
The demonstrations peaked on May 14, which the Palestinians commemorate as "Naqba Day" or "Catastrophe Day," commemorating the founding, in 1948, of the state of Israel. In addition, May 14 is the day announced by the Trump administration when the official US embassy to Israel will move to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv.
After that, the demonstrations on the Gaza border began to diminish, but there were replaced by a new tactic, the incendiary kites and balloons, which have been in use to this day.
The incendiary kites and balloons appear to have baffled the Israeli military, which has not found a way to deal with them, putting the Netanyahu government under pressure to solve the problem. The announcements on Monday, including closing the Kerem Shalom crossing point between Israel and Gaza, is retaliation for the kites and balloons, but it remains to be seen whether the retaliatory acts will prevent them. Reuters and Israel National News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jul-18 World View -- Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Jul-2018)
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Violence sparked by death of Burhan Wani continues to grow
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A 16-year-old girl was among three people who died in Kashmir on Friday, after security forces opened fire at stone-throwing protesters. India's army says that it's "investigating" the deaths of the three civilians, but says that they had to resort to controlled firing after a patrol unit was attacked by a crowd of nearly 500 people. In a statement, the army that soldiers were injured from terrorist gunfire.
Mobile internet services have been suspended in the entire Kashmir Valley, over fears that of widespread unrest, particularly as July 8 is the two-year anniversary of the death of Burhan Wani, the commander of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen.
Hizbul Mujahideen is a separatist terror group of Muslims demanding independence for India-governed Kashmir, and that it be permitted to merge with Pakistan-governed Kashmir, so that all of Kashmir is under Pakistan control. Hizbul Mujahideen was formed in 1989, funded by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. It's been very popular in Kashmir, with thousands of anti-India protesters as members, and is demanding that Kashmir be separated from India and made part of Pakistan. New Delhi TV and India Times and The Independent (Bangladesh) and Hindustan Times
The death of Burhan Wani on July 8, 2016, triggered a major surge in violence that lasted throughout the summer and then into the fall, resulting in the deaths of 80 people. The violence ebbed only when the cold of winter set in. Then the violence began again in summer 2017, continuing into the winter.
The violence has been greater so far this year. Since January this year, 210 people including 58 civilians, over 104 militants, and 48 security forces personnel have been killed in the Valley in different incidents of violence.
There's also been a change in the membership of the separatist groups in the last two years. In the past, the members of the separatist groups had infiltrated from the Pakistan-governed side of Kashmir, but recently young people from India-government Kashmir have been announcing their joining the militants on social media, with pictures of themselves holding guns.
On May 25 of this year, Shamsul Haq Mengnoo, 25, the younger brother of a police officer, announced on social media that he had joined Hizbul Mujahideen. Shamsul is the fourth highly-educated youth to join militant ranks this year, and the 50th youth to join altogether. On Sunday alone, the anniversary of Wani Burhan's death, over a dozen newly recruited militants posted pictures on social media.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters, Kashmir is repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.
As the weather has warmed in the last few weeks, the violence has been increasing. Generational Dynamics predicts that Kashmir is returning to full-scale war, re-fighting the extremely bloody partition war of 1947. Tribune India and First Post (India) and CNBC (5-July)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jul-18 World View -- India's Kashmir locked down after 3 civilians killed by police thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(9-Jul-2018)
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The North Korean demands: total American withdrawal from South Korea
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited North Korean on Friday and Saturday, where he was snubbed by not having a meeting with the child dictator Kim Jong-un.
Pompeo characterized the meeting as "successful," but the North Korean news agency KCNA issued a 1,300 word vitriolic anti-US rant, criticizing the "gangster-like demand for denuclearization," and then contradicting itself by threatening to end its alleged "unshakable will for denuclearization." Here are some excerpts:
"It was, however, so regretful to mention what the U.S. side had shown in its attitude and stand at the first DPRK-U.S. high-level talks held on 6 and 7 July.The DPRK [North Korea] side, during the talks, put forward the constructive proposals to seek a balanced implementation of all the provisions of the Joint Statement out of its firm willingness to remain faithful to the implementation of the spirit and agreed points of the DPRK-U.S. summit meeting and talks. ...
But, the U.S. side came up only with its unilateral and gangster-like demand for denuclearization just calling for CVID, declaration and verification, all of which run counter to the spirit of the Singapore summit meeting and talks. ...
The issues the U.S. side insisted on at the talks are all roots of troubles, which the previous administrations also had insisted on to disrupt the dialogue processes, stoke the distrust and increase the danger of war. ...
The first DPRK-U.S. high-level talks this time brought us in a dangerous situation where we may be shaken in our unshakable will for denuclearization, rather than consolidating trust between the DPRK and the U.S.
In the last few months, we displayed maximum patience and watched the U.S. while initiating good-will steps as many as we can.
But, it seems that the U.S. misunderstood our goodwill and patience.
The U.S. is fatally mistaken if it went to the extent of regarding that the DPRK would be compelled to accept, out of its patience, the demands reflecting its gangster-like mindset. ...
But, if the U.S., being captivated in a fidget, tries to force upon us the old ways claimed by the previous administrations, this will get us nowhere. ...
We still cherish our good faith in President Trump.
The acronym CVID refers to "complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization," which has been the stated objective of the Trump administration from the beginning. KCNA (North Korea) and AP
As I wrote two days ago ( "6-Jul-18 World View -- Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened"), the objective of Pompeo's trip was to press Kim to provide a complete list of all nuclear and ballistic missile production sites, and a timetable for shutting them down. Obviously the North Koreans balked at that request.
As I've said in the past, in my opinion the North Koreans have had one and only one objective for these meetings: Use diplomacy to force the Trump administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons and missile development.
Saturday's KCNA statement is exactly in line with that objective. The North Koreans made the "reasonable" demand that the Korea war be officially ended (as opposed to the current status, officially still at war after an armistice was signed in 1953):
"The U.S. side never mentioned the issue of establishing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula which is essential for defusing tension and preventing a war. It took the position that it would even backtrack on the issue it had agreed on to end the status of war under certain conditions and excuses.As for the issue of announcing the declaration of the end of war at an early date, it is the first process of defusing tension and establishing a lasting peace regime on the Korean peninsula, and at the same time, it constitutes a first factor in creating trust between the DPRK and the U.S. This issue was also stipulated in Panmunjom Declaration as a historical task to terminate the war status on the Korean peninsula which continues for nearly 70 years. President Trump, too, was more enthusiastic about this issue at the DPRK-U.S. summit talks. ...
The U.S. side, during the talks, made a great publicity about suspension of one or two joint military exercises. But suspension of one action called exercises is a highly reversible step which can be resumed anytime at any moment as all of its military force remains intact in its previously-held positions without scraping even a rifle. This is incomparable with the irreversible step taken by the DPRK to explode and dismantle the nuclear test ground."
This is all a demand that the US withdraw all its forces from South Korea before any denuclearization can take place. Related to this are other demands, including removal of the THAAD defensive anti-missile system from South Korea, and removal of American forces from Okinawa. At one time in the past, a North Korean official was quoted as saying that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons after the US gives up its nuclear weapons.
It's true, as the North Koreans claim, that the suspension of the joint military exercises is reversible, but the claim about the exploding and dismantling the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Mount Mantap is also reversible, and may be completely fraudulent. The North Koreans did not permit nuclear experts to witness the explosions, and so the explosions may only have been a big show to gain negotiating leverage. Furthermore, as we discussed at the time, other parts of Mount Mantap can be used as nuclear test sites, and there may be dozens of other locations in North Korea. This is probably one of the reasons why Pompeo's request for a list of test sites was denied on Saturday.
The purpose of the KCNA statement was to make a "reasonable" request, in order to get the Trump administration to lift the sanctions, with no significant concessions by the North. At the end of the day on Saturday, the sanctions were still in full force.
There's no doubt that the denuclearization "negotiations" have now taken a sharp turn.
Recall that Trump canceled the summit negotiations six weeks ago. ( "25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit")
One of the things that triggered Trump's cancelation was continued criticism of and contempt for Trump in the North Korean media. Since the cancelation, the NK media have been consistently "nice" to Trump and the US.
So Saturday's criticism is extremely significant because it's the first hostile comment in the NK media since the cancellation. In a sense it represents NK's first real counter-response to Trump's cancellation.
One thing that's notable about the KCNA statement on Saturday is that it came a few hours after Pompeo had said the meetings had gone well, so there was no need to make this statement right away. I've said in the past that if Kim tried to really denuclearize, then he'd be shot and killed by his own generals. The denuclearization negotiations must have, at the very least, caused bitter disagreements in NK's leadership, much like what's happening in London with Brexit or in Berlin over the migration issue.
So the statement, when it wasn't even necessary, is a sign that the faction opposing the negotiations has just gained the upper hand. This is probably the real significance of the statement, and it means an end to current track of negotiations.
The South Korean's must have seen this coming, because they've been urging the US to soften its demands on NK. Going along with the South Koreans would have meant making concessions without any denuclearization steps by NK, so it had to be rejected, but now we're facing the inevitable outcome.
There's one more thing that has to be remembered: From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a generational Crisis era, where nationalism and xenophobia are at historical high points. So it wouldn't take much to reach a tipping point for the North Koreans to abandon the negotiations.
(People always point to the East-West Germany reunification talks in 1991 as examples that could be followed for Korean reunification. But that example is completely irrelevant, since those talks occurred during a generational Unraveling era, where nationalism and xenophobia are at historical lowest points.)
The other thing that's going on, as I pointed out in my article two days ago is that the Chinese are furious about the tariffs that president Trump has been imposing. The Chinese are liars and cheaters and criminals, but like the Nazis, they consider themselves to be the Master Race who have the right to lie and cheat and extort to get whatever they want, because they have such total contempt for the West. The statement that NK issued Saturday may have been encouraged by the Chinese, because of their fury over the tariffs.
I also pointed out that there's an analogy with the sanctions imposed on Japan on July 24, 1941, which infuriated the Japanese and motivated the Pearl Harbor attack on December 7. I can't prove this, of course, but with nationalism and xenophobia at their historic peaks, I have the feeling that a similar dynamic is going on with China and North Korea towards America and the West.
What choices are now available to the Trump administration? Here are some possibilities:
Any of these choices have unpredictable results, because the North Koreans have absolutely no intention of agreeing to denuclearization, and that will have to become clear at some point. Furthermore, with xenophobia and nationalism at historic highs in both China and North Korea, any action might produce a hostile reaction.
It's well to remember that we've only had these negotiations because of a remarkable coincidence: Just as things were heating up to a boil in January, it was time for, of all things, the Olympics games in Seoul. This permitted the North to continue nuclear and ballistic missile development, while putting on a charm offensive that lasted several months. The charm offensive is now completely derailed.
For those who would like a thin reed of hope to grasp onto, let me offer one. In my article "12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?", I speculated that Kim Jong-un's sister, Kim Yo-jong, might have been so overtaken with the vibrancy and high standard of living of South Korean society, compared to the deadliness and near starvation as a constant in the North, she might have taken it upon herself to convince her brother to give up his nuclear program, for the good of the North Korean people. In that article, I described how Soviet leader Boris Yeltsin had decided to give up Communism after visiting the United States in September, 1989.
I wrote that article in February, and since that time dozens of top North Korean leaders have visited the South, and have seen for themselves how the NK people have suffered enormously under Communism. Trump himself has frequently pointed out to the North Koreans that they could have a great future if they give up their nuclear program.
So the thin reed of hope that I'm offering is that Kim Jong-un and his generals take the same lesson that Yeltsin took, and decide that, for the good of the North Korean people, it would be best to give up not only the nuclear program, but Communism. Something like that would be truly historic, but don't hold your breath waiting for it. Reuters and The Hill and Fox News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jul-18 World View -- North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Jul-2018)
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Ukraine's Donbas war continues, as US supplies Javelin anti-tank missiles
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Russian navy in recent weeks has boosted its presence in the Sea of Azov to approximately 40 ships, giving it the ability to control that body of water and to strike virtually at will along Ukraine's coastline there. This is the latest in a series of Russian threats and acts of harassment direct at crippling Ukraine's economy, and possibly preparing for new military actions.
Ever since 2014, when Russia invaded and occupied eastern Ukraine (Donbas), and then invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, there have been continuing fears that Russia would launch a new invasion and annex another portion of Ukraine.
It's been thought that the most likely target of a new Russian invasion would be the port cities of Mariupol, Berdyansk, and the entire strip of land along the Sea of Azov connecting Russia to Crimea, creating a land bridge from Russia to Crimea, and taking total control of the Sea of Azov.
No such invasion has occurred, but starting in May 2015, Russia began constructing an 11.8 mile bridge across the Kerch Strait, from Russia to Crimea, to allow transport of goods and people between Russia and Crimea, and also to control access to the Sea of Azov. The construction of the bridge immediately had a severe effect on Ukraine's economy. Russia several times closed the Kerch Strait to maritime traffic, trapping commercial vessels docked in Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports. During 2017, freight traffic was reduced 43% and transshipments shrank by 30%, totally $54 million in 2017.
The Kerch Strait bridge officially opened on May 16, a year earlier than initially announced. Many vessels that used to deliver goods to Azov seaports can no longer do so at all because the Russians have deliberately made the passageways under the bridge too small for many vessels. The Russians have all but blocked the Ukrainian seaports on the Sea of Azov, stopping international vessels from shipping goods to and from Ukrainian cities. Russia's security forces stop and search dozens of vessels, and delay them for days. In the four days last week from July 2-5, Russia's security forces detained seven cases. Jamestown and Hromadske (Ukraine) and Eurasia Review and Maritime Bulletin and Jamestown
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The war in Ukraine began in 2014 when Russian troops invaded eastern Ukraine, a region known as the Donbas. The war is entering its fifth year, and with no end in sight. More than 10,000 people have been killed, including 2,800 civilians. Nearly two million people have been internally displaced or put at risk if they remain in their homes.
Because of a fear of a further major Russian military invasion, the Donald Trump administration last year approved the sale of Javelin anti-tank missile systems. A $47 million U.S. military-aid package approved last year specified 210 Javelin antitank missiles and 37 Javelin launchers, two of them spares. Ukraine announced on April 30 that they had been delivered.
The missiles are to be used only for defensive purposes. According to a US statement at the time of the sale last year:
"This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by improving the security of Ukraine.The Javelin system will help Ukraine build its long-term defense capacity to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in order to meet its national defense requirements. Ukraine will have no difficulty absorbing this system into its armed forces.
The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region."
The U.S.-made FGM-148 Javelin is a fire-and-forget anti-tank missile that uses infrared guidance to hit armored targets. The guidance system is contrasted to wire-guided anti-tank missiles, which require a shooter to actively guide the weapon until it hits its target. A Javelin shooter can immediately seek cover after firing its shot.
Russia's foreign ministry reacted to the sale by accusing the United States with "fomenting a war." Such statements from Russia are always laughable, since Russia has absolutely no credibility. Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, lying about it every step of the way, and continually supplied weapons to the forces in the Donbas. In particular, it was a Russian-made Buk missile that shot down the Malaysian Airlines passenger plane in July 2014, killing hundreds of passengers. Washington Post and RFE/RL and Newsweek and Defense News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jul-18 World View -- Russia's actions in Sea of Azov raise fears of another invasion of Ukraine thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Jul-2018)
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Commentary: The US imposes tariffs on Chinese imports
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo headed to North Korea for another meeting with Kim Jong-un on Thursday, amid reports that sanctions will be softened, either by the US or by China.
According to a Japanese report on a meeting last week in Beijing between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and China's president Xi Jinping, Kim asked Xi to help end sanctions targeting North Korea. The report quotes Kim as telling Xi:
"We are feeling great pain due to economic sanctions. Now that we have concluded the US-North Korea summit in success, I want (China) to work toward early lifting of the sanctions."
According to the report, Xi said that he would do his "utmost" to satisfy the request.
However, since the June 12 summit meeting between Kim and president Donald Trump, there has been no evidence that North Korea intends to keep its promise to denuclearize.
At the same time, there were reports last week, based on satellite imagery, that North Korea has been rapidly building new infrastructure at its Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, where plutonium for nuclear weapons is produced.
Since China has always been North Korea's main trading partner, China has had to take responsibility for implementing many of the sanctions. However, there have been reports in recent weeks that China has already partially weakened its own enforcement of the sanctions.
Some analysts are claiming that Trump has already given up a lot by agreeing to cancel the joint military drills with South Korea, without getting anything in the return from the North.
The State Dept. on Thursday denied that it has softened its approach to North Korea denuclearization. According to State Department spokesman Heather Nauert:
Nothing could be further from the truth. Our policy toward North Korea has not changed.We are committed to a denuclearized North Korea and Secretary Pompeo looks forward to continuing his consultations with North Korean leaders to follow up on the commitments made at the Singapore summit."
Many people, including myself, are skeptical that Kim Jong-un has any intention at all of denuclearizing. The purpose of Pompeo's current trip is to get some specific commitments. According to Pompeo, "On this trip I’m seeking to fill in some details on those commitments and continue the momentum toward implementation of what the two leaders promised each other and the world." AFP (1-July) and Reuters and 38 North (26-June) and Joongang Daily (Seoul)
The reality of the situation is that the negotiations could break down very quickly, and we could very quickly be as close to war as we were in January, before Kim Jong-un's charm offensive at the Seoul Olympics.
As I've said in the past, in my opinion the North Koreans have had one and only one objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons and missile development.
North Korea is said to be asking for "staged denuclearization." This means that North Korea and the US alternate in making concessions on a step by step basis, with the US removing each sanction in return for North Korea taking a denuclearization step.
If this is Kim's strategy, it doesn't seem that he's following it. The satellite imagery that shows infrastructure development at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Facility cannot be a surprise to Kim. The North would have been aware that the infrastructure changes would be detected by satellite imagery, and it's therefore reasonably to conclude that Kim wanted this development to be made public, perhaps as a warning to the US that unless concessions are made rapidly, the North will continue developing nuclear weapons.
According to reports, Pompeo is going to press Kim to provide a complete list of all nuclear and ballistic missile production sites, and a timetable for shutting them down. If, as expected, Kim refuses to produce such a list, then there might be a major confrontation, or they may kick the can down the road to a later meeting.
Trump said on Thursday,
"I really believe that he sees a different future for North Korea. I hope that’s true. If that’s not true, we’ll go back to the other way."
In other words, the North Korean situation could blow up into a full "crisis" again for the first time in months. The real disaster would be if Trump gives in and reduces sanctions, getting nothing in return. Korea Times and Channel News Asia
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The US has gone ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports, as of 12:01 am on Friday.
China's statements in response to these tariffs have been getting increasingly angry in tone. The Chinese appear to be infuriated and humiliated by the tariffs, much more strongly that Europe, Canada or Mexico.
If you're looking for a historical analogy, one place where you might start is the sanctions that the US imposed on Japan on July 24, 1941. The sanctions were in retaliation for Japanese occupation of French Indo-China (Vietnam). Four and one-half months later, on December 7, 1941, Japan's bombers attacked Pearl Harbor. History.com
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jul-18 World View -- Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Jul-2018)
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Jordan and Israel concerned about infiltration from Iran and Hezbollah
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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After a brief lull in the attacks to provide an opening for negotiations, Syria and Russia have resume full-scale attacks on rebel-held areas in Daraa province. As in the attacks on Aleppo and Ghouta, women and children are particularly targeted. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad uses the technique of attacking peaceful protesters and then, when there's some sort of violent revenge attack, uses that as an excuse to call the entire population "terrorists," and then perform genocide and ethnic cleansing.
Daraa has played a special part in Syria's war, and is considered the place where it started. In spring of 2011, two 15-year-old boys posted graffiti in Daraa saying, "Freedom. Down with the regime. Your turn, Doctor," suggesting that al-Assad would suffer the same fate as as leaders in Egypt and Tunisia during the "Arab spring." The word "Doctor" refers to the fact that al-Assad, had been a ophthalmology student when he attended college in London, at a time when his father Hafez al-Assad had been conducting genocide in Syria. This graffiti infuriated al-Assad, who is a psychopathic killer. He ordered the two boys to be tortured and imprisoned, and he launched a furious attack on the people of Daraa. Now he wants to finish up the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Daraa. There's no hope of a negotiated peace in Daraa because al-Assad has every intention of completing the genocide and ethnic cleansing.
That's presumably the reason that al-Assad and the Russians aren't giving the people of Daraa the same choices they gave to the people of Aleppo and Ghouta. In the latter two cases, the rebels were allowed to leave with their weapons and their families and travel to Idlib province. But in the case of Daraa, al-Assad and Russia are demanding that the rebels immediately give up their weapons, and are prohibiting the families from going anywhere. We can expect to see a bloody genocidal attack of monumental proportions.
EU foreign affairs spokesman Maja Kocijancic said on Saturday that the attacks by al-Assad and the Russias are violation of international law:
"Such attacks are clear violations of international law and international humanitarian law that also put at risk any progress in Geneva for the resumption of the political talks under UN mediation."
I assume that Kocijancic must be a comedian in her spare time, because this statement will only bring laughter from al-Assad and the Russians. Over the years, I've documented several attempts at peace talks, and each time, al-Assad has made complete fools of the peace mediators, by making promises and then immediately ignoring them. Al-Assad uses peace talks as a cover for further genocide and ethnic cleansing. Al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster and war criminal so far this century. (I always receive comments from people who say that al-Assad is a nice guy because he supposedly protects Christians. That's like saying Hitler was a nice guy because he protected Christians -- except that he didn't. Al-Assad may protect Christians now because he considers them to be useful idiots, but he wouldn't hesitate to kill all of them if he had no further use for them.)
About 300,000 people in Daraa and in the adjacent Quneitra province have been fleeing their homes and heading to the borders with Jordan and Israel. Both Jordan and Israel have closed their borders to the refugees, but are providing humanitarian aid. More people are moving to the Israeli border because they believe that al-Assad and Russians will not risk a war with Israel by attacking them there. AFP and Arab News and Middle East Online and World Bulletin (Turkey)
There's a great deal of international pressure on Jordan to allow the Syrian refugees fleeing the violence in Daraa to cross the border into Syria. A spokesman for Human Rights Watch said:
"The abject refusal by Jordanian authorities to allow asylum seekers to seek protection not only goes against their international legal obligations, but against basic human decency. Jordanians themselves are appealing to their government’s basic decency and calling for those in need to be let in."
The European Union is making a similar plea.
However, Jordan estimates that it is already hosting some 1.3 million refugees, and earlier this week said that it is unable to host a new wave of refugees, and so the border will remain closed, although Jordan is providing humanitarian aid.
However, Jordan has several major concerns about the military action in Daraa.
First, closing its border to refugees fleeing violence is a great embarrassment for Jordan, which maintains good relations with all Western powers and human rights organizations.
However, Jordan believes that the world has given up on refugees, and are no longer willing to provide funding for the support of refugees in refugee camps. There is particular concern that earlier this year the Trump administration cut funding to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, but there are 193 countries in the United Nations, and those other countries aren't stepping up to fund Palestinian refugees either. The cut in funding is particular hard on Jordan, which hosts more than two million Palestinian refugees, and Jordan's economy is already in serious trouble.
Another concern for Jordan is the lack of security along the border. Jordan has suffered previous terrorist attacks in 2005 and 2016 when jihadists entered Jordan along with waves of refugees.
Jordan is also concerned about a demographic change in Daraa. In particular, Jordan is concerned that al-Assad's ethnic cleansing and genocide will empty the region of its Sunni population, to be replaced by people from Iran and Hezbollah. Jordan Times and Human Rights Watch and Middle East Eye and Jordan Times
Like Jordan, Israel is keeping its border closed to the hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing violence from al-Assad and Russia. Syrians are coming to the area because they hope e that the proximity to Israel will protect them and that al-Assad's troops and warplanes will not bomb them there.
Israel has technically been at war with Syria since 1948, and there is a UN peacekeeping force on the border between Syria and Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israel has been working with the peacekeeping force to set up "safe zones" within Syria that will be safe from al-Assad's ground forces and Syria's and Russia's warplanes.
On Friday, the Israeli army announced that it had taken 300 tents and several tons of food, medicine and clothing to the other side overnight, as humanitarian aid for the Syrian refugees. However, Israel will not allow Syrian refugees to cross the border because of the fear that Iranians and Hezbollah will infiltrate.
Debka, an analyst service based on Israeli military and intelligence sources, but which sometimes gets things wrong, is reporting that the US and Israel have begun launching military actions along the border, to counter infiltration by Iran and Hezbollah.
It had been hoped that Iran and Hezbollah would not take part in the Daraa and Quneitra attacks, but Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday, "Iran is one of the key powers in the region and it would be absolutely unrealistic to expect it to abandon its interests." Times of Israel and Deutsche Welle and Debka
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jul-18 World View -- Al-Assad's attacks on Daraa threaten clashes with Israel and Jordan on Syria's border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Jul-2018)
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Egypt refuses to build refugee camps for migrants deported from Europe
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The government of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared to be near collapse on Monday, because of a challenge by the leader of another party in her governing coalition. Horst Seehofer, leader of the Bavarian CSU party, was demanding that Merkel agree to tough new rules regarding migrants -- that migrants crossing the border from Austria into Germany who are registered in another EU country will automatically be rejected and sent back.
Since Seehofer is also Minister of the Interior, he has the power to enforce that rule by himself, without Merkel's permission. But if he had done so, then Merkel would have been forced to fire him, resulting in the withdrawal of the CSU from the governing coalition, and the collapse of Merkel's government.
This situation has resulted in a great deal of anger and shouting in Berlin, according to reports. At one point Seehofer threatened to resign, saying angrily, "I won’t let myself be sacked by a chancellor whom I made chancellor in the first place," referring to the fact that the CSU joined Merkel's governing coalition last year.
However, let's face it, Merkel and Seehofer are both politicians who crave power, and the collapse of Merkel's government would put both of them out of power. So a way had to be found that would save face for both of them, and allow them both to remain in power.
The solution was a fudge, kicking the can down the road in a remarkable manner: Germany will set up migrant refugee camps on the border, and border controls will be set up to stop registered asylum seekers at the border. If there's a bilateral deal with the country of registration, the refugees will be sent back.
But here's the really amazing part: The refugee camps will be deemed to be part of the border and not part of either country, which means that the refugees will not be legally deemed to have crossed the border into Germany. Germany would be allowed to expel them from Germany because they never legally were in Germany.
This deal doesn't solve anything, but supposedly it kicks the can down the road to the Bavarian elections in October, at which time the government may collapse anyway. The deal may not even be legal -- officials in the European Commission have said that they'll be reviewing it.
But we've had so many proposals for refugee camps for migrants in the last few months, and I don't believe any of them have succeeded, so there's no reason to believe that refugee camps on the border between Germany and Austria will succeed either. Austria has already said that it will refuse to take back refugees under any circumstances, and so these new border refugee camps will presumably just become flooded with refugees, until the government is forced to let them all go. Whether Merkel and Seehofer have a solution to that problem remains to be seen.
This proposal could make things worse for the entire European Union in that it may cause a chain reaction of border closings by different countries, essentially bringing the Schengen Zone agreement to an end. Austria, Italy and the Czech Republic have already threatened to introduce controls on their borders in response to the new German plan. Handelsblatt (Germany) and Reuters and Irish Times and Sky News
It was just a few days ago that a summit of EU leaders came up with a plan for "Regional Disembarkation Platforms." These would be, once again, migrant refugee camps. But this time, they would be located in countries in northern Africa, away from the EU. ( "30-Jun-18 World View -- EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting")
The idea is that migrants would be rescued from drowning in the Mediterranean Sea, but instead of being taken to Italy or another EU country, they would be taken to a Disembarkation Platforms in northern Africa. Their asylum requests would be processed, and if rejected they would be sent back to the countries of origin.
Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia immediately announced that they would not permit Disembarkation Platforms to be hosted on their soil, and on Tuesday, Egypt announced that it would not permit them in Egypt. Egyptian Parliament Speaker Ali Abdul Aal said:
"EU reception facilities for migrants in Egypt would violate the laws and constitutions of our country. Our capacities are already utilized today; therefore, it is important that Egypt receives support from Germany and the EU."
The same EU Summit meeting also agreed to set up "Controlled Centers" in EU countries, "on a voluntary basis." Once again, this would just be another name for a migrant refugee camps. France and Austria immediately announced that they would not be willing to host Controlled Centers on their soil.
There have been many proposals in recent weeks, in Europe and the United States, and these proposals all have some kind of refugee camp or refugee prison or refugee detention center as a core proposal. These proposals always result in enormous national and international outrage, as well as political chaos. It remains to be seen if any of them will work. Middle East Monitor and Reuters
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jul-18 World View -- German leaders agree to migrant refugee camps on border with Austria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Jul-2018)
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Generational explanation for the violence in Mexico
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Far left politician Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), 64 years old, won a landslide victory in Mexico's presidential election on Sunday, with about 53% of the vote -- more than double the total of his nearest rival.
AMLO's victory is being seen as the latest of large populist victories, comparable to the Brexit referendum, Donald Trump's victory, and the right-wing victory in Italy. As the world goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, and the survivors of World War II continue to disappear, the old orders and institutions are disappearing with them, and younger generations are creating a new world order that ignores the lessons of World War II.
AMLO told his supporters:
"I'm very aware of my historical responsibility. I don't want to go into history as a bad president. Now we are going to transform Mexico."
Well that claim would have to be placed in the category of "major fantasy." Mexico is infested with murders, crime and corruption, and no transformation is possible in the near future.
More than 110 politicians have been murdered since September. Last year, a record 25,000 people were murdered, and 13,000 have been killed so far this year. The 112th political candidate to be killed was Fernando Puron, a congressional candidate in the border city of Piedras Negras, who was taking a selfie with a supporter when a gunman shot him in the head from behind.
Corruption is endemic. Outgoing President Enrique Peña Nieto’s government and party were mired in a seemingly bottomless series of scandals. AMLO promises to end corruption quickly.
The wave of murders, kidnappings and gang-related violence began during the administration of former president Felipe Calderón (2006-2012), who launched the government’s war against drug cartels in 2006. Instead of defeating the drug cartels, however, organized crime, predominantly drug trafficking, exploded into broader criminal activities including theft, extortion, murder and state-level corruption. Despite billions spent and massive cash injections from the U.S., Mexico has become only more dangerous.
AMLO wants massive spending on multi-billion dollar national infrastructure projects, but has not specified where the money will come from in Mexico's already weak economy. When asked he says that he can pay simply by reducing corruption and waste. That's what every politician says, but there's no chance that he will succeed.
Questions are being asked about how well AMLO and Donald Trump will get along, but they spoke on the phone on Monday, and both say they're in agreement on many things. AMLO had campaigned on Mexico leaving NAFTA, but Mexico really needs NAFTA, and so that campaign promise will be renegotiated with Trump. NBC News and AFP and Washington Examiner
Mexico's last generational crisis war was the Mexican Revolution of 1910-21. Mexico and Turkey are the only two major countries that have gone more than 90 years without a generational crisis war.
The time since the last generational crisis war has a profound effect on the society of a country. After the London subway bombings of 2005, we were able to show from published data that most Mideast suicide bombers overwhelming came from Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's last crisis war was the Ibn Saud conquest, ending in 1925, and Morocco's was the Rif War, ending in 1927. There appears to be a correlation between the time since the last crisis war and likelihood of suicide bombings and other suicide terrorist acts.
This phenomenon is explained theoretically in yesterday's article "2-Jul-18 World View -- Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America".
As described in the article, a generational crisis war, whether it's World War II or the Mexican Revolution or other, causes a core body of "lessons learned," a set of beliefs that are deeply held by all the survivors of the war. After the war, survivors in different political parties may differ on many policies, but there are deeply held core beliefs that allow them to cooperate on major policies. For example, in America in the 1980s, the Republicans and the Democrats cooperated with each other to change the Social Security system to make it a sounder system. After that, they cooperated again to specify new rules to control the budget deficit. That kind of cooperation became impossible in the 2000s.
Once the survivors of the crisis war die off, then the younger generations take power, but have no common deeply held core beliefs. Previously held core beliefs shatter into fragments. Each group in the population selects from those fragments, and uses them to develop its own set of core beliefs, and makes commitments to those beliefs. When those core beliefs conflict with reality and cause cognitive dissonance -- with a disconfirmation event as described yesterday in Festinger's theory -- each group doubles down on its unrealistic beliefs, and in many cases this means becoming violent.
This theory is still under development, but it does provide a solid theoretical explanation of the increasing violence in Mexico, and why it will continue to grow until the next crisis war, probably a re-fighting of the Mexican Revolution. A generational crisis war unifies a country into a common set of core beliefs. As the decades pass after the crisis war, this body of core beliefs shatters into fragments adopted by different groups, resulting in conflicts that can include violence. The next crisis war unifies the country again.
In yesterday's article, I described a "regeneracy event" as one that regenerates civic unity in the population for the first time since the end of the previous crisis war. In the American Civil War, it was the Battle of Bull Run. In World War II, it was Pearl Harbor and then the Bataan Death March. When these events occur, people with different political beliefs unite behind the leader to fight to preserve the country and its way of life.
During the days of the Barack Obama administration, I would write that if a regeneracy event occurred, then all the people would drop their political leanings, and become united behind Obama. This was greeted with horror by some commenters, where some people said that he and his friends would never unite behind Obama.
Now the shoe is on the other foot, and I'm hearing from commenters who say that they would never become united behind Trump.
Neither of these claims is realistic. If a nuclear missile landed on California, anyone who refused to defend the country would be branded as a traitor, and would be treated as such.
A regeneracy event is a disconfirmation event in the sense of Leon Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance, as described yesterday. It forces everyone to reevaluate all their deeply held beliefs, and either reject them or double down on them. A few people will double down and become perceived as traitors, but even they will be convinced as the weeks pass. In time, almost everyone will support the president, whether it's Obama or Trump.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jul-18 World View -- Mexico elects far left president amid skyrocketing murders, crime and corruption thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(3-Jul-2018)
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Leon Festinger and Cognitive Dissonance
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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My father was a Greek immigrant who was a fairly objective observer of American society. When I was a kid, he once told me that in the 1930s there had been so much violence by Communists and the left that he hadn't thought that America would survive. Unfortunately, I didn't ask him what he meant by that, although the comment obviously made an impression on me since I remember it to this day.
The 1930s was America's last generational Crisis era, previous to the current one. In the one before that, the 1860s, America was "engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure."
So today's vitriolic divisiveness is not unique to today, nor is it unique to America. We're seeing it today in Europe, where the European Union is being torn apart by issues such as Brexit and immigration. It's fairly common in any country during a generational Crisis era.
This week's mass shooting by Jarrod W. Ramos at the Capital Gazette newspaper in Annapolis, Maryland, has focused the public on the vitriolic divisiveness. Ramos's motive apparently has nothing to do with politics, although some in the mainstream media are blaming it on various comments by president Donald Trump that could have incited violence, especially his tweets about fake news, or his "punch him in the face" remark during the 2016 campaign.
However, if Ramos was motivated by political incitement at all, it's much more likely to have been the much more recent incitement by Maxine Waters, specifically inciting her supporters to target Trump officials and physically "push back on them!"
There's a "dog whistle" aspect to incitements to violence. If, like Trump or Waters, you say something to incite violence by supporters against opponents, then most people would consider your statement to be a meaningless rant. But just as a dog whistle can only be heard by a dog, your statement could serve as a "dog whistle" that would only be heard by people who are moved to commit actual violence. And the problem with inciting violence is that you can't control the result, since you don't know how many dogs on either side are going to hear that dog whistle and act on it with actual violence. In other words, if Ramos was moved to act by political incitement, it might have been the incitement by Trump during the campaign, or by Maxine Waters during the last few days, or by numerous other people on the left who are calling for various forms of confrontations and violence against Trump supporters.
The mainstream media are pointing to various statements by Trump that could have incited violence in the sense of a "dog whistle":
On the other hand, I've seen far more serious incitements to violence from the left, and I've written about them many times in the last ten years, including the following:
I've been following this trend line since the George Bush administration, and there has been a steady increase in left-wing violence and incitement to violence for about 15 years, during the Bush and Obama administrations, and long before Trump ran for president.
The vitriolic divisiveness occurs on both the left and the right. But violence and incitement to violence are almost entirely on the left-wing side. USA Today and Washington Post and Hollywood Reporter (30-May-2017)
I've been searching for years for an explanation for the growing vitriolic divisiveness in America today, as well as in other countries, and it suddenly occurred to me that the key to understanding it is a book that I read decades ago.
The 1956 book When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger can be purchased from online booksellers, or is available from https://archive.org/details/pdfy-eDNpDzTy_dR1b0iB as a free PDF. I read this book decades ago, and it made an enormous impression on me. I strongly urge everyone to read it.
First I'll describe the book's methodology and conclusions, and then I'll explain how it applies to America today.
Festinger was interested in religious cults that predict the end of the world on an explicit date, commit themselves fully to it by giving up their families and belongings, and then have to face the world again when the world doesn't end.
This is called "cognitive dissonance," when deeply held beliefs are contradicted by incontrovertible facts.
Festinger found that people in such a situation do not simply give up their beliefs because their beliefs were proved wrong. Instead, they double down on the beliefs, and look for any way to justify them. In the case of end world predictions, the most likely way is to believe that God provided the world with a reprieve provided that the chosen people begin to proselytize the new belief system. From this brief description, you can get an idea of how this applies to the vitriolic divisiveness in America today.
Festinger was aware of a religious sect that was predicting the end of the world on a specific date. Two members of Festinger's team infiltrated the religious sect. The predictions were based on messages from extraterrestrials known as the "Guardians" that one cult member, Mrs. Marian Keech, started receiving. The members of the sect would be rescued by flying saucers and then, four days later, there would be a huge flood drowning everyone left behind. The members of the sect were highly committed to this belief: Many had given up their families and all worldly belongings to join the other sect members in a vigil in a member's home, waiting for the end.
The first disconfirmation came when the flying saucers didn't show up at the predicted time. There were four wrenching days of waiting, as the saucers failed to come at each newly predicted hour, as specified by Mrs. Keech as she continued to receive "messages." The final and biggest disconfirmation came after the four days were up, and the world did not end.
Although the group were a private sect, what they were doing had become known, and they received ridicule through the newspapers, and they received visits by people who believed them and people who ridiculed them. During the four-day wait, a couple of people, the people who had joined most recently, left the group, but everyone else stayed. Here's what happened:
Chaotic though they may seem, the days immediately preceding December 21 [the day that the floods were supposed to appear] were at least loosely organized around a dominant theme -- cataclysm and salvation. By dawn on the 21st, however, this semblance of organization had vanished as the members of the group sought frantically to convince the world of their beliefs. In succeeding days, they also made a series of desperate attempts to erase their rankling dissonance by making prediction after prediction in the hope that one would come true, and they conducted a vain search for guidance from the Guardians."
Another change of behavior was equally familiar in today's politically divided world: Led by Mrs. Keech, the cult members began actively proselytizing. They had previously kept information about the cataclysm secret, "in order to prevent panic." But now they sought out even the most skeptical nonbelievers, in order to convert them. For example, one sarcastic commentator whom Mrs. Keech had repeatedly refused to speak with suddenly was welcomed with open arms. In fact, Mrs. Keech couldn't stop talking, as he recorded the interview, and she answered all his questions in detail.
Another reporter who hosted a program on women's issues asked her to comment, and she spoke at length on what's wrong with education, and how the messages from the Guardians explained how to straighten it out.
Hordes of reporters and visitors came to the house, resulting in an "amiable, manic uproar."
One further trend was noticeable on December 21. As the day wore on, Mrs. Keech began to make more and more of the importance of some recent news items. The morning newspapers contained an article about an earthquake in Nevada that had occurred about five days earlier, pointing out that if the quake had happened in a populated area, the destruction would have been enormous. Mrs. Keech showed the story excitedly to the members of the group, emphasizing the fact that, indeed, cataclysms were happening.... Here, she declared, was evidence for the validity of the prediction. This theme ... grew in importance in response to further disaster news."
The next day, the group put out a press release saying that the Guardians had postponed the cataclysm, "Due to the confusion which has arisen from the prophecy we have decided to unite forces to complete the prophecy." In other words, they were proselytizing in a press release.
Festinger found that when deeply held beliefs are contradicted by incontrovertible facts, the result is not to abandon the beliefs, but to double down on them, with any possible explanation, even bizarre fantastical explanations. This is the result of cognitive dissonance.
Festinger's book lists five conditions that lead to this "cognitive dissonance" response to disconfirmation:
"1. A belief must be held with deep conviction and it must have some relevance to action, that is, to what the believer does or how he behaves.2. The person holding the belief must have committed himself to it; that is, for the sake of his belief, he must have taken some important action that is difficult to undo. In general, the more important such actions are, and the more difficult they are to undo, the greater is the individual's commitment to the belief.
3. The belief must be sufficiently specific and sufficiently concerned with the real world so that events may unequivocally refute the belief.
4. Such undeniable disconfirmatory evidence must occur and must be recognized by the individual holding the belief. ...
5. The individual believer must have social support. It is unlikely that one isolated believer could withstand the kind of dis-confirming evidence we have specified. If, however, the believer is a member of a group of convinced persons who can support one another, we would expect the belief to be maintained and the believers to attempt to proselyte or to persuade nonmembers that the belief is correct."
These are Festinger's five conditions for the disconfirmation of a belief in the end of the world by a religious cult. What has occurred to me is that we can make slight adjustments to these conditions so that they apply to political parties, and explain the divisiveness and left-wing violence in America today. Leon Festinger, When Prophecy Fails and Psychology Today (22-May-2011) and IMDB
As I've said in the past, the survivors of World War II, the GI Generation and the Silent Generation, did great things -- they created the United Nations, World Bank, Green Revolution, World Health Organization, International Monetary Fund, and so forth. They created these organizations and managed them for decades with one purpose in mind: That their children and grandchildren would never have to go through anything so horrible as the Great Depression or World War II.
Throughout their lives, they worked together, even when they were on opposite political sides, to protect America and the world from the excesses that led to the Great Depression and World War II.
In the 1980s, the Republicans and the Democrats cooperated with each other to change the Social Security system to make it a sounder system. After that, they cooperated again to specify new rules to control the budget deficit. And in 1996, Democratic President Bill Clinton, saying that "the era of big government is over," cooperated with the Republican congress to eliminate the welfare entitlement.
These politicians had deeply held beliefs that policies must apply the lessons learned from the Great Depression and World War II. Democrats and Republicans differed in some policies, but these differences were minor compared to the shared beliefs of the WW II survivors.
These deeply held beliefs meet Festinger's five conditions, prior to the point where the disconfirmation occurs.
As the generational Crisis era began in 2003, these WW II survivors were rapidly disappearing, replaced by younger generations of people with no shared deeply held beliefs. What deeply held beliefs did they have? This requires more study, but young people do seem to have rearranged themselves into groups, with each group having some deeply held belief. Each of these groups meets Festinger's condition, except for disconfirmation.
There is one major example of disconfirmation of a deeply held belief that we've seen in modern times. Prior to November 8, 2016, almost everyone in the country, Republican or Democrat, believed that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election.
Democrats were particularly deeply committed to this belief, and supportive of one another in that belief. Many made financial commitments, personal commitments, commitments to live in Washington, and so forth.
The unexpected Trump victory caused a psychological crisis among a minority of Democrats that looked very similar to the crisis that Mrs. Keech and her cult suffered when the world didn't end. There was a doubling down on beliefs and widespread proselytizing in some of the most fantastical claims -- just as fantastical as claims that flying saucers would be coming to save the earth. This explains the demands for impeachment, the demands for a special prosecutor, the calls for violence against Trump and his supporters, and so forth.
What I'm saying is that the concepts and principles that Leon Festinger applied to small religious cults could also be applied to larger political groups and political parties during a generational Crisis era, when there's no unifying experience (like WW II). This is a rich area for research, with results that could explain a great deal that would help America's democracy at times like this. I've only scratched the surface.
Finally, let me remind readers of the "Regeneracy" concept from generational theory. A regeneracy event is one that creates civic unity for the first time since the end of the preceding crisis war. In 1861, the regeneracy event was the Battle of Bull Run. In 1941, it was Pearl Harbor and then the Bataan Death March. It's impossible to predict what the regeneracy event(s) will be this time -- perhaps a major military defeat overseas, or perhaps a North Korean nuclear missile landing in California. But whatever it is, it will unite people in all political parties behind the president, as they fight to preserve the country and its way of life.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jul-18 World View -- Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Jul-2018)
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Number displaced by Syrian and Russian bombing in Daara triples to 160,000
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The assault that began on June 19 of the combination of the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and bombs from Russian warplanes is threatening a massive humanitarian disaster greater than the combined sizes of the the humanitarian disasters at Aleppo and Ghouta.
Daraa is supposed to be part of a "de-escalation zone," based on peace talks last year in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Russia, Iran and Turkey. An outcome was that Russia and the US agreed that the US would oversee the ceasefire in Daraa.
Promises and agreements mean nothing to Russia and Syria, and they never intended to honor the ceasefire. The US does usually honor its promises, but in this case has chosen not to intervene, rather than get pulled into yet another war, this time a full-scale war with Syria and Russia.
Bashar al-Assad has already begun the process that he's used in the past in Aleppo and Ghouta. He begins by bombing peaceful protesters, particularly women and children. As soon as someone become violent in revenge, he declares the whole community or ethnic group to be "terrorists," and uses that as an excuse for full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing. The genocide is performed with missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas, all particularly targeting women and children, as well as schools, markets, and hospitals.
The ethnic cleansing is accomplished by making it impossible for refugees to return to their homes. Last month, Syria's government passed 'Law #10', which makes it almost impossible for refugees to return to their former homes. There are millions of Syrian refugees who have fled to Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Europe and other countries who will not be able to return home, and are effectively stranded in the country they fled to.
The situation in southwestern Syria is perfect for al-Assad. By the time it's over, millions of people will flee their homes, but they'll have nowhere to go, as they'll be blocked by Jordanian and Israeli authorities from going south. The refugees will be amassed on the borders, where al-Assad can kill them like fish in a barrel.
Refugees from Aleppo and Ghouta were able to flee to Idlib province in northwestern Syria. Idlib is in another de-escalation zone, with Turkey having the responsibility to oversee the ceasefire.
Turkey is currently worried that it is facing the worst possible scenario in Idlib. There are currently 2.5 million people living in Idlib, and 1.2 million people from this figure were displaced and took refuge in Idlib. As one analyst put it, "Idlib has no Idlib," which means that when Bashar al-Assad begins genocide and ethnic cleansing in Idlib, then people who try to flee will have no place to go, except possibly north through the border into Turkey. Turkey already hosts millions of Syrian refugees, and is very concerned that it might be forced to open its borders again to millions more. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Guardian (London) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
According to UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, the number of people displaced by Syria's army and Russia's warplanes in southern Syria is now at 160,000 -- more than triple what it was on Monday, when the figure was 45,000.
Most are headed south to Jordan, but are trapped at the border, since Jordan has closed the border. A smaller number have gone west and are on the border with Israel-controlled Golan Heights. That border has also been closed by Israel.
Jordan estimates that it is already hosting some 1.3 million refugees, and earlier this week said that it is unable to host a new wave of refugees, and so the border will remain closed. Several thousand Syrians gathered near sealed crossing on Saturday, pleading to no avail to enter Jordan.
However, Jordan's army began delivering humanitarian aid to thousands of displaced Syrians along the border. According to government spokesman Jumana Ghunaimat, "This is in line with Jordan's stance to help our Syrian brothers. These include essential foodstuffs and drinking water."
Israel has transferred several dozen tons of humanitarian aid to refugee encampments in southwestern Syria. According to Israel's army, the humanitarian aid contained some 300 tents, 13 tons of food, 15 tons of baby food, three pallets of medical supplies and 30 tons of clothes and shoes. Israel's defense minister Avigdor Liberman said that Israel was prepared to provide humanitarian assistance, but that “we will not accept any Syrian refugees into our territory.” Times of Israel and Middle East Eye and Anadolu
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jul-18 World View -- Syria and Russia create humanitarian catastrophe in Daraa thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(1-Jul-2018)
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