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India and Pakistan approve the Kartarpur Corridor, connecting Sikh shrines
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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November was the bloodiest month of the year for separatist militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir. According to official figures from Indian security forces, 37 separatist militants were killed in November, and 227 militants have been killed in Kashmir this year.
The Jammu and Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society (JKCCS), which supports the separatist militants, does not dispute those figures, but goes farther and says that 2018 was the bloodiest year for everyone in Kashmir since 2009. JKCCS says that 528 people were killed in Kashmir in 2018, of which 145 were civilians, 234 were separatist rebels, and 142 were Indian security personnel.
As I've written in the past, there are three major Pakistan-sponsored jihadist groups operating in Kashmir. Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM) is an indigenous, home-grown jihadist group that became considerably more violent after the July 8 2016 death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian army. Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) is a relatively new indigenous jihadist group. Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is a Pakistan-based terrorist group that was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. Hindustan Times and Al Jazeera
With India and Pakistan almost always apparently close to a state of war, with Kashmir at the epicenter, it's surprising that they can agree to anything significant. But that seems to have happened, although ulterior motives abound on both sides.
India and Pakistan have both endorsed the Kartarpur Corridor, a visa-free path that permits Indian Sikh pilgrims to visit the gurdwara (Sikh shrine) known as the Gurdwara Kartarpur Sahib, associated with the founder of Sikhism, Sri Guru Nanak Sahib Ji, or just Guru Nanak.
Politicians in both India and Pakistan have been effusive in their praise for this agreement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India drew parallels with the fall of the Berlin wall, declaring, "Who thought the Berlin Wall would fall. May be, with the blessings of Guru Nanak Dev ji, Kartarpur corridor will not only be a corridor but can be a reason to bring people together." In a similar vein, Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan, at the ground-breaking ceremony at Kartarpur Sahib, expressed the sentiment that, "If France and Germany who fought several wars can live in peace, why can't India and Pakistan?" A number of other statements are in the same vein of intemperance, including Indian Vice President M. Venkaiah Naidu's statement, "The corridor will become a symbol of love and peace between both countries."
Going beyond the ebullient promises of "love and peace," Modi has in the past refused to approve the Corridor, saying that Pakistan could use it to radicalize Sikh separatists in the Khalistan movement.
However, the Modi's change of heart was rather sudden, and probably driven by domestic considerations. April 15, 2019, will be the 550th birthday of Sikh found Guru Nanak, and general elections will be held in May, 2019. Refusing to open the Corridor would alienate millions of Sikhs living in India, and motivate them to vote for the opposition. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and The Diplomat
Guru Nanak Dev (1469-1539) founded Sikhism in the 16th century with the goal of bringing peace to India at a time when the environment heavily permeated with conflicts between the Hindu and Muslim religions. His most famous saying is: "There is no Hindu, there is no Muslim, so whose path shall I follow? I shall follow the path of God." He was extremely charismatic. Today, there are 23 million Sikhs worldwide, making Sikhism the 5th largest religion in the world, with 19 million Sikhs living in India, primarily in the state of Punjab.
However, Sikhism did not bring peace between Hindus and Muslims in India. To the contrary, Sikh leaders began to militarize the Sikh community, and Sikh military leaders captured more and more territory, and in 1799 declared Punjab as an independent Sikh state. This was the beginning of the "Khalistan" separatist movement. At that time India was a British colony, and British troops defeated the Sikh armies in the 1800s, decisively beating the Sikhs in 1849.
The seminal event for Sikhs in the 20th century was the April 10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre), Some 10,000 Sikhs were holding a meeting protesting British colonial policies in India, when British troops opened fire, killing hundreds. This event convinced everyone -- the British, the Sikhs, the Hindus and the Muslims -- that Britain had to give up control of India. This led to the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent that created India and Pakistan, and to the Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century.
Sixty-four years after the Amritsar Massacre of 1919, in 1983, some Sikh activists took refuge in the Golden Temple Complex at Amritsar, the most revered place in the Sikh world. In June 1984 Indian troops launched 'Operation Blue Star'. They attacked the Golden Temple Complex, killing many of those inside, and seriously damaging the buildings.
This infuriated the Sikhs, and revived the Khalistan separatist movement. In October 1984, the world was shocked when India's prime minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two of her Sikh bodyguards. Four days of anti-Sikh rioting followed in India. The government said that more than 2,700 people, mostly Sikhs, were killed, while newspapers and human rights groups put the death toll between 10,000 and 17,000.
The opening of the Kartarpur Corridor, which permits visa-free travel between Sikh shrines in Pakistan and India, raises concerns that the corridor will encourage activism among hardline Khalistan activists in India, giving rise to yet another separatist movement to add to the one by Muslims in Kashmir.
Sikh activists have already been holding rallies in London. In August, a rally for "Punjab Referendum 2020," which calls for a Sikh referendum to encourage separatism, was attended by 2,500 expatriate Sikh hardliners, mostly from Britain. Indian officials say that the Khalistan movement may be popular in London, but it's not catching on in London.
India makes no effort to hide its irritation over allowing “a separatist activity which impinged on India’s territorial integrity and seeks to propagate violence, secessionism and hatred." Indian intelligence agencies are wary of Khalistan radicals in London, as London was the epicenter of a pro-Khalistan movement in the 1980s. Discover Sikhism and Dawn (Pakistan, 12-July-2015) and Hindustan Times and HuffPost and Pluralism.org
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan and India agree to support Sikhs, as separatist violence surges in Kashmir thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Nov-2018)
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China building a 'tsunami' of coal-powered plants across Asia
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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A new United Nations report on climate change shows that countries that had been vocal about supporting the 2015 treaty on climate change have been failing miserably at meeting the goals of that treaty.
According to the Paris treaty, the world had to reduce carbon emissions sufficiently to prevent the world temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Centigrade by 2100. In order to meet that target, global greenhouse gas emissions would have to fall by 55% by 2030.
Then recently a new report by scientists said that 2 degrees wasn't good enough to avoid global catastrophe, and so we'd have to cut carbon emissions enough to prevent world temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Centigrade.
Unfortunately, the countries of the world haven't been doing what they promised, and global greenhouse gas emissions actually increased in 2017. If things continue as they are, then global temperatures will increase by 3.2 degrees Centigrade by 2100.
The report describes different countries:
According to the report, the countries that failed to meet their emission commitments did so because their economies had been growing. The report implies that emissions of greenhouse gases are correlated to economic growth. This is an eminently obvious conclusion, and is certainly true.
But it also implies that greenhouse gas emissions will not be sharply cut unless economic growth is sharply cut, and that's not going to happen in any country.
There is nothing in the Paris treaty that describes any technology for reducing carbon emissions except by cutting economic activity. As for other technologies, they only provide a minuscule part of the solution, and anyway environmentalists are opposed to those too. These include nuclear power plants, huge windmill farms, and huge solar panel farms.
As usual, every time I write one of these articles on climate change, I make the point that I accept the conclusions of the climate "scientists": That there has been and is global warming, that the global warming is caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and that the increased emissions are caused by human activity.
However, climate "scientists" have been getting climate change predictions completely wrong for thirty years, and so I do not accept that these scientists have any idea what the temperature will be in 2100, any more than then know what the temperature will be a month from now.
Even if you accept the scientific conclusion that human activity is causing global warming, the climate change movement is still scam. It's nothing but a movement to take money from developed countries (the US, the EU, etc.) and give it to developing countries, and also give it to the cronies of the climate change activists by funding them.
Every scientific organization in the world understands that if they can "solve" the emissions problem with new technology, then they'll be billionaires. No further encouragement is needed, and no climate change treaty is need.
Furthermore, it's almost 100% certain that there will be one or two world wars prior to 2100, killing 30-50% of the world's population. That reduction in the population will reduce the amount of human activity by a proportional amount, which will completely solve the global warming problem. BBC and CNN and Washington Post and France 24 and United Nations
"Like an approaching tsunami triggered by a distant earthquake, a massive cohort of hundreds of new coal-fired power plants is on course to be added to the already overbuilt Chinese coal plant fleet," is how a September report from CoalSwarm’s Global Coal Plant Tracker begins.
In 2016 and 2017, authorities in Beijing tried to reduce the number of coal-fired plants being built, and they issued a series of suspension orders for many of the plants scheduled for construction.
However, satellite imagery shows that many of the suspended plants were not suspended at all, or at most were delayed. Apparently, regional and provincial authorities ignored the suspension orders from Beijing, and allowed construction to continue anyway.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this illustrates how major decisions are made large populations or large generations of people, even in a dictatorship. Someone commented on my recent article on China's Belt and Road Initiative, and said that all the projects would be completed because China is a "command economy." But China has a population of 1.4 billion people, and a population that size cannot be controlled, even in a "command economy." China is far too big a country, long overdue for a major internal rebellion with the right triggering event.
However, China's activities with coal-fired plants go far beyond their borders.
China is taking a leading role in financing a wave of now coal plants in countries across Asia. Export credit agencies such as the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, China Development Bank Corp. and Korea Trade Insurance Corp. are among the biggest supporters. The three biggest destinations for those funds are Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam.
China alone emits 27% of global greenhouse gas emissions, but that's just within China's own borders. Thanks to China, greenhouse gas emissions are increasing in countries across Asia as well. Guardian (London) and BBC and China Dialogue and EndCoal and Bloomberg
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Nov-18 World View -- New climate change report shows countries are failing to meet commitments thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Nov-2018)
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Bitcoin super-bubble implodes and crashes below $4,000
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The price of a Bitcoin fell to $3,700 on Tuesday, down from a peak close to $20,000 in December of last year.
A little over a year ago, in response to people asking my advice about investing in Bitcoin, I wrote about Bitcoin just after its price surged past $5,000. In the article I wrote, "Investing in Bitcoin is the road to disaster. I literally cannot think of a worse investment today than Bitcoin, or the various copycat newcomers, such as Ethereum. Bitcoin is almost literally a Ponzi scheme backed by nothing but air."
So Dear Reader, I hope you took my advice, because if you didn't then you've lost money. Many people lost a great deal of money investing as the price increased parabolically all the way up to $20,000, and those people have lost a LOT of money.
What are analysts saying today? Some are saying that Bitcoin has bottomed, and now will go up. One says that Bitcoin will fall further to about $3,000, and then will go up. Another says that it will remain about where it is now for several months, and then will go up. These are the same people who have always said it would go up, even while it was crashing.
This reminds me of the housing bubble in the mid-2000s decade. I was writing as early as 2004 that there was a housing bubble, as did a few others. It was perfectly obvious. But the "experts" on CNBC and in the Wall Street Journal kept saying that "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a bubble."
It wasn't until around 2009 or 2010 that these "experts" even admitted that there had been a housing bubble, and then they pretended that they had known it all along. It was the same with the Iraq war, which everyone was in favor of in 2003, but then years later pretended that they had been against it all along.
So now we have experts making predictions about the future price of Bitcoin. How is any prediction of any kind even possible?
If you want to predict the future price of stock shares, you can look at a company's earnings history. If you want to predict future corporate bond prices, you can look at a company's assets. If you want to predict the future price of corn, you can look at yield estimates that you get from the Department of Agriculture.
But for Bitcoin, there's nothing, absolutely nothing on which to base any prediction. These analysts on CNBC and in the Wall Street Journal who predict that Bitcoin will go up should be prosecuted for criminal fraud, because they don't have a clue. Betting on Bitcoin is worse than betting on the Las Vegas roulette wheel. Maybe you'll win, maybe you'll lose but the analysts who make predictions are nothing but criminals. If you invest in Bitcoin, you should be prepared to lose 100% of your investment. Bloomberg and CNBC and NewsBTC and MarketWatch and Coin Market Cap
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The above graph shows that the prices of iron and steel in China have crashed in the last month, with the right part of the graph looking very similar to the Bitcoin graph above. Maybe the two are linked in some way, or maybe it's just a coincidence that they're both crashing at the same time, but either way the fall in iron and steel prices in China is the latest sign that the economy has been weakening for about six months.
It's my personal opinion that China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is in a massive bubble of its own.
The BRI is a breathtaking project as much as $1.3 trillion on railways, roads, seaports, and power grids, now extending into a least 76 countries, mostly developing nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, together with a handful of countries on the eastern edge of Europe.
My feeling, based on many, many things that I've read in the last year, is that China's BRI is a humongous financial disaster in the making. The other side of "debt trap diplomacy" is that all these debt traps will be sprung at roughly the same time, as each debt trap default creates a level of panic that triggers defaults in other debt traps.
What most people don't understand is any bank or company can "create" money by issuing debt. People think that only the federal government can create money, but the money created by issuing debt is 100% identical to the money created money created by the federal government. And in a debt bubble, money created by issuing debt vanishes when the bubble bursts.
There are a few things about the BRI that I find troubling and indicative of a financial crisis.
First, the utter secrecy of the terms of the BRI deals, in particular the amount of debt being created, and the terms of repayment. I don't see any reason why that information can't be made public for each country, even if other deals still have to be kept secret. By keeping the debt secret, China evokes a great deal of suspicion of bribery, corruption, and debt-trap diplomacy.
Second, as we recently reported, the terms of China's loan to the Maldives is becoming public, thanks to a surprise election victory and change of administrations. The new president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, asked China's ambassador Zhang Lizhong how much the Maldives owed to China, and he was handed an invoice for the shocking amount of $3.2 billion, many times more than Maldives could afford. This figure was so embarrassing to China that later denied that Zhang ever gave that figure. The whole situation raises suspiicion of a great deal of corruption. ( "24-Nov-18 World View -- Maldives can't determine how much money it owes to China")
So you have the huge amounts of money sloshing around 76 countries, with no public information about the terms. In this top secret environment, there must be many situations involving bribery and kickbacks, as well as country leaders lining the pockets of their family and cronies.
The third issue is what's happening in Pakistan. Pakistan is about to go into bankruptcy, but it's "all-weather friend" China very surprising has refused to come to Pakistan's aid. Is this because China's slowing economy requires keeping expenses in check? China has asked Pakistan to go to the IMF, but the IMF is going to demand full details of all the Pakistan-China contracts, and also require Pakistan to stop funding terrorists.
So this is what I call the "BRI Bubble." China is funding projects in 76 countries, and most of those countries are ever going to be able to pay that money back. A crisis could occur at any time.
This is a bubble that's going to burst, with catastrophic results, especially in Asia.
We keep speculating about what will trigger the next world war -- South China Sea, North Korea, Mideast, Kashmir, etc. But another possibility has always been a global financial crisis triggering the world war. The Bitcoin crash may have cascading effects leading to a broader crisis but, if not, it might be the BRI bubble. Bloomberg and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Financial Times and Global Times (Beijing)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Nov-18 World View -- Bitcoin bubble and China's Belt and Road bubble both appear to be crashing thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Nov-2018)
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Pakistan turns to its 'friends' for aid
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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After two weeks of discussions early this month between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan failed to get agreement on securing a bailout package that would save the country from its balance of payments crisis. The talks ended inconclusively, with agreement to meet again in January.
China has strongly encouraged the IMF to make a bailout loan available to Pakistan. Last month, China's foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said, "As a member of the IMF, China supports the organization in making an objective evaluation of Pakistan based on professionalism and earnestly helping it properly address the current difficulty."
However, the main area of disagreement with Pakistan stemmed from the IMF's insistence that Pakistan fully disclose the terms of the loans made by China to Pakistan for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This is a very sensitive subject for China. China's has made loans to numerous countries across Asia and Africa, and China has insisted that the terms of these loans be kept top secret. Outside observers believe that China is engaging in "debt trap diplomacy," and exposing the terms of these loans would reveal the amount of leverage that China has on all these countries. In the case of Pakistan, even the central bank doesn't know the terms of the loan.
As we recently reported, the terms of China's loan to the Maldives is becoming public, thanks to a surprise election victory and change of administrations. The new president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, asked China's ambassador Zhang Lizhong how much the Maldives owed to China, and he was handed an invoice for the shocking amount of $3.2 billion, many times more than Maldives could afford. This figure was so embarrassing to China that later denied that Zhang ever gave that figure. ( "24-Nov-18 World View -- Maldives can't determine how much money it owes to China")
However, the IMF is demanding to know all the details of China's loans to Pakistan before it will approve a bailout package. That's because a lot of the bailout money would end up going to China to pay off the CPEC investment. That's why China is so supportive of an IMF loan to Pakistan. And since most of the IMF money comes from US taxpayers, American taxpayers would be paying for China's infrastructure projects in Pakistan. Nikkei and Market Watch
This week is the tenth anniversary of the horrific 3-day terrorist attack on Mumbai, India, killing 126 people, injuring hundreds more, and gutting the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel, a major landmark for all of India.
It later turned out that the perpetrators were Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist group that was funded by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. LeT's leader in the operation was Hafiz Saeed. Pakistan refused to condemn him or LeT, but kept him under house arrest for several years, under international pressure. Then in November 2017, Pakistan freed him with no trial and all charges dropped. As he left the court a free man, he was greeted by chanting crowds and rose petals.
The relevance of this story to Pakistan's relationship with the IMF is that the IMF will not provide funding to a country on the blacklist of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The FATF is a 30 year old international policy-making body concerned with money laundering and financing of terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
There are currently 11 countries on the FATF blacklist, including Pakistan. According to the October 2018 update, Pakistan has committed "to address its strategic counter-terrorist financing-related deficiencies," and take numerous steps including the following:
"(1) demonstrating that TF [terror financing] risks are properly identified, assessed, and that supervision is applied on a risk-sensitive basis; ...(4) demonstrating that authorities are identifying cash couriers and enforcing controls on illicit movement of currency and understanding the risk of cash couriers being used for TF; ...
(8) demonstrating effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions (supported by a comprehensive legal obligation) against all 1267 and 1373 designated terrorists and those acting for or on their behalf, including preventing the raising and moving of funds, identifying and freezing assets (movable and immovable), and prohibiting access to funds and financial services."
In June, Pakistan agreed to tighten its compliance with anti-money laundering laws and counter-terror funding. In view of Pakistan's previous sponsoring of terrorist organizations targeting India and Afghanistan, it's not surprising that Pakistan has no particular desire to fulfill that commitment, even though the IMF will not provide funding for a country on the FATF blacklist.
Finance Minister Asad Umar specifically addressed this question last week and responded:
"The government is neither in a hurry to sign a deal with the IMF nor will it come under any pressure to take any decision which burdens the country’s economy and its people."
The IMF has other requirements as well: raise taxes, raise electricity prices, tighten monetary policies and allow a further depreciation in the value of the rupee currency. Asia Times and Pakistan Today and The News (Pakistan) and Financial Action Task Force (FATF)
Last month, Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan leveraged the bizarre death of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Istanbul to obtain $6 billion in aid from Saudi Arabia. ( "25-Oct-18 World View -- Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis")
However, even with that aid, Pakistan still needs an additional $12-15 billion in aid to survive the next year. Imran Khan has paid visits to both United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, but apparently returned empty-handed from both visits.
So Pakistan has turned to its "all-weather friend," China, whose friendship is "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight."
Khan visited China early this month, expecting a generous bailout package from China. But to everyone's surprise, China flatly refused. Perhaps China feels that its refusal will force the IMF to provide a bailout, and then, as described earlier, the US taxpayer will be paying China for CPEC, something that would delight the Chinese who would be getting sweet revenge for unfair deals forced on China after the Opium Wars in the 1800s.
So that brings us back to the IMF demands -- make the details of China's loans to Pakistan public, and put procedures in place to end terror financing. It remains to be seen whether Pakistan is even capable of meeting these demands, or if it even wants to. Dawn (Pakistan) and Lowy Institute (Australia) and Pakistan Today and and Bloomberg (24-Oct)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan fails to get agreement from IMF for a bailout thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Nov-2018)
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Russia confirms the attack on the Ukrainian ships
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Ukraine and Russia may be on the brink of resuming their war today, after a major naval escalation where Russia's military fired on Ukrainian navy ships in the Black Sea, boarding and seizing the ships, and blockading Ukraine's ports at the Kerch Strait.
The sequence of events, according to Ukrainian media and mostly confirmed by Russian media, is as follows:
There is no word about how long the blockade will be in place.
Russia's attack on Ukraine's ships appears to be a continuation of the war between Russia and Ukraine that began in 2014. Russia invaded Donbas (eastern Ukraine) and is still occupying it, and then Russia invaded, occupied and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.
In the past three years, Russia has built a bridge over the Kerch Strait between Russia and Occupied Crimea, and has constantly harassed and blocked hundreds of commercial ships trying to reack Ukrainian ports.
Many observers believe that these steps are all in preparation for a naval assault on Mariupol, Berdyansk, and other Ukrainian ports along the Sea of Azov, with the objective of creating a land bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea, and to taking full military control of the entire Sea of Azov.
The three seized ships are in Kerch seaport. There are no reports on the locations and health of the captured sailors.
Ukraine has called an emergency meeting of its national security and defense council, and Ukraine's parliament may vote on declaring martial law on Monday.
Last month, Orthodox Christian Patriarch Bartholomew I, leader of the Constantinople Patriarchate and "first among equals" leader of all Orthodox Christian churches and of the world's 300 million Orthodox Christians, announced that the Orthodox Christian Church of Ukraine in Kiev is now independent of the Orthodox Christian Church of Moscow. This move has infuriated Russia, causing them to threaten retaliation. Sunday's naval crisis may be one step in that retaliation. News.com (Australia) and BBC and Ukrinform (Ukraine) and Daily Mail (London)
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Before we quote the Russian statement about Sunday's incident, we have to remind readers that Russia has repeatedly lied about everything, including the following:
There are many additional examples, especially in Syria. Any statement by a Russian official has to be assumed to be a lie unless it's confirmed by a Western politician or Western media. Russia's press is tightly controlled by Russia's government. If Russians ever tell the truth, it's only be accident.
On the other hand, Ukraine has a free press, and statements by Ukrainian sources during the last four years have generally proved out to be consistently true.
So with that introduction, here's the Russian statement as published in Tass:
"MOSCOW, November 26. /TASS/. All three vessels of the Ukrainian Navy, which violated the Russian state border, have been detained in the Black Sea, weapons were used to force them to stop, the Public Relations Center of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) reported."The Ukrainian Navy’s vessels the Berdyansk, the Nikopol and the Yany Kapu, which violated Russia’s state border this morning, made another attempt of committing illegal activities in Russia’s territorial sea at 19:00 Moscow time on November 25," the FSB said. "They did not respond to legitimate demands by the ships and boats of Russia’s FSB Border Guard Service escorting them to stop immediately and performed dangerous maneuvers."
According to the FSB, "weapons were used to force the Ukrainian warships to stop." As a result, all three vessels of the Ukrainian Navy were detained in Russia’s territorial waters in the Black Sea. "Three wounded military servicemen of the Ukrainian armed forces received medical assistance," the FSB said, adding that there was no threat to their lives.
A criminal case has been initiated over violation of Russia’s state border.
The FSB stressed that Ukraine was aware of the procedure for warships’ passage through Russia’s territorial sea and Kerch-Yenikale Canal. "They have already used that procedure for innocent passage," it said.
The FSB’s border directorate for Crimea earlier reported that three Ukrainian warships had illegally crossed Russia’s state border in the Black Sea and entered Russia’s territorial waters performing dangerous maneuvers. Later on, the FSB said that two more Ukrainian warships had sailed off from Berdyansk to join the three vessels. However, they later turned back.
The FSB stressed that "before making such dangerous and irresponsible decisions, the Kiev leadership should have thought about possible consequences of its actions."
Russia’s Federal Security Service said it had irrefutable evidence of Kiev’s using the Ukrainian Navy to stage a provocation in the Black Sea and promised it would be made public soon.
Three Ukrainian Navy vessels, which violated Russia’s state border and were detained in the Black Sea are being delivered to the port of Kerch (a city in eastern Crimea), Anton Lozovoy, an officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) State Border Directorate for Crimea, said in a video commentary on Monday.
"All three vessels have been detained and are being delivered to the port of Kerch," he said.
According to Lozovoy, three Ukrainian military servicemen who sustained minor wounds have received medical care."
Russia claims that they have "irrefutable evidence" of a provocation, but until that "irrefutable evidence" is released and evaluated by Western analysts, we have to assume that most of the above statement is a lie.
The Russian statement does not mention ramming the tugboat.
The Russian statement says that the Ukrainian ships were in Russian territorial waters. Until this is confirmed by Western sources, we have to assume that this is a lie.
The Ukraine war has been ongoing for four years, and people are still being killed on both sides. Sunday's incident is a major escalation, and it could mean that Russia is planning to invade and annex the region of Ukraine along the Sea of Azov. Tass (Moscow) and Aesop's Fable: The Boy Who Cried Wolf
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Nov-18 World View -- Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Nov-2018)
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Russia rebukes Venezuela for non-payment
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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With over one million refugees from Venezuela having fled to other countries, with dozens of people dying violently in Venezuela every day, Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro's Socialist policies seem to drive the country further into disaster every week.
In 2017, Venezuela was producing two million barrels of oil per day (bpd). But by September of this year, output had fallen to just 1.4 bpd. According to Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency:
"Venezuela production is in a free-fall and we expect that soon it may go to even below 1 million barrels per day."
Venezuela has some of the largest oil reserves in the world, and Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) was one of the biggest oil producers in the world.
But Socialist dictator Hugo Chávez nationalized ExxonMobil's Venezuelan assets in 2007, and turned them over to his crooked cronies who didn't know anything about running an oil company. Venezuela's oil production has been steadily declining for years. Average oil production declined dramatically over the past two years, by 12% in 2016 and again by 13% in 2017. Production in December 2017 was 27% lower than a year earlier. And this year it's fallen even farther.
Late last year, Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro appointed a military man, Major General Manuel Quevedo, head of PDVSA, with a mandate to increase production and rid the company of corruption. Quevedo treated the engineers and other professions contemptuously, even calling them "thieves and saboteurs." Tens of thousands of employees left the company, and Quevedo replaced them with soldiers who knew nothing about the oil industry.
The result has been a collapse in infrastructure, as engineers who were needed to maintain the busted valves, ripped gaskets, cracked pipes and so forth were forced to leave. Contractors who were experts in cleaning up oil spills have gone out of business because PDVSA wasn't paying them.
The means that oil production is decreasing, and oil spills and leaks are increasing. PDVSA is unable to clean up spills after years of neglect, scant investment, and corruption scandals. Pools of oil are polluting waterways and farmland, causing a pungent odor.
Urban areas have been hit, too. Early this year, the contents of a ruptured transport line blackened the Guarapiche River in Monagas state. A water-purification plant on the river was compromised, and the authorities shut it down for more than a month. Local schools canceled classes, and government offices reduced office hours because water was so scarce.
Socialist Venezuela is in a major economic collapse, following years of mismanagement and underinvestment in the oil industry, an enormous humanitarian crisis, and a leader who is addicted to Socialist policies that enrich himself and his cronies, but destroy the population, with a hyperinflation rate expected to reach one million percent by the end of the year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Reuters and Bloomberg and Reuters and Bloomberg
Socialist Venezuela would have gone into full-blown default years ago if not for bailouts by Russia and China. Russia has been bailing out Venezuela for decades, and in recent years Russia and China have extended large loans to Venezuela, with the agreement that Venezuela can service the debt by making payments in shipments of oil.
One of the reasons for the fall in oil production has been that PDVSA has been forced to starve its own oil refineries of crude oil, so that crude oil can be shipped to Russia and China as loan repayments. However, as PDVSA's infrastructure collapses, it's becoming more difficult to make debt servicing payments even with oil.
It's now emerged that PDVSA has been unable to provide all the oil shipments that it's promised to Russia. Igor Sechin, a close adviser to Vladimir Putin and head of Russia's state-owned oil company Rosneft, flew from Moscow to Caracas over the weekend to rebuke Venezuela's Socialist leader Nicolás Maduro for being behind schedule in oils-for-loans payments to Russia.
Possibly even more significant is that, according to reports, Sechin brought information (I would guess satellite tracking data) showing that Venezuela was meeting its obligations with China, but not with Russia.
The problems delaying payments include operational mishaps, such as refining outages and delayed cleaning of tanker hulls, and financial disputes with service providers owed money by PDVSA. Reuters and Reuters
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Nov-18 World View -- Socialist Venezuela oil production in 'free fall' as infrastructure collapses thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Nov-2018)
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Constitutional crisis continues in Sri Lanka over China-India competition
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Shortly after Ibrahim Mohamed Solih shocked the Maldives by winning the presidential election on September 23 decisively by 58-41% of the vote, he met with the Chinese ambassador to the Maldives, Zhang Lizhong, to ask how much money the Maldives owed to China. According to Solih, Zhang handed him an invoice for $3.2 billion. This was money owed for Chinese-funded infrastructure projects for China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Solih's election victory was a surprise because it had been expected that the election would go to he incumbent president Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, who had never hesitated to use vote-rigging or jailings or violence to win elections, had been expected to win. However, Solih's election margin of victory was so large that Yameen was forced to concede. Solih's victory is also major victory for India and a major loss for China, since Yameen had close relations with China and Solih promised to balance Indian and Chinese influence.
So then there was another shock, when Solih received the "invoice" from ambassador Zhang saying that Maldives owed China $3.2 billion. With annual revenues of $1.5 billion and an annual gross domestic product of around $3.9 billion, Maldives would be unable to service the debt, and it appeared that Maldives had been the victim of a huge Chinese debt trap.
Solih took office a week ago, and said that the country's finances are worse than expected, and that it will take weeks or months to untangle details of all the deals struck with Chinese firms. According to his assistant, Mohamed Nasheed:
"We are at a loss to understand how much we really owe to China. Direct debt, or direct bilateral government-to-government debt is one thing, but there is on top of that sovereign guarantees for the private sector. And there is also on top of that our state owned enterprises who have gone into debt."
However, the Maldives central bank contradicts the $3.2 billion figure, estimating the country’s liabilities to China at $1.5 billion.
And now China is denying that the Zhang ever gave Solih a $3.2 billion figure, also saying that the correct figure is closer to $1.5 billion.
So the Maldives is sending its foreign minister Abdulla Shahid to China next month, to renegotiate deals and to finally figure out how much Maldives owes to China.
China has negotiated many infrastructure debt deals with numerous countries. These deals are all secret, and are usually considered to be Chinese "debt traps" imposed on small countries. The situation with the Maldives is that, for the first time, one of these top secret deals may become public, and we'll be able to see what the terms are and whether there was corruption involved on the part of the Yameen administration.
What we've seen so far in the Maldives case is that the financial relationship with China is a total mess. If and when deals with other countries become public, we can expect a similar mess.
The Maldives envoy Abdulla Shahid will be discussing another subject when he visits China next month -- the joint Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that the two countries signed a year ago. According to the Maldives government, the FTA was rushed through parliament by the Yameen administration, but the Solih administration plans to cancel it, because it's too one sided.
Between January to August this year, the Maldives’ imports from China were $342 million, while its exports to China were just $265,270. The FTA specifies that there would be no tariffs on imports by either side from the other, but since China imports almost nothing from Maldives, the FTA is of benefit only to China. Canceling the FTA would be one more setback to China, which is facing an increasing chorus of accusations of "debt trap diplomacy" in many countries across the Pacific and Indian oceans. Avas (Maldives) and Reuters and Maldives Independent (30-Nov-2017) and Reuters (19-Nov) and Xinhua
Sri Lanka is another country that has been harshly victimized by China's debt trap diplomacy. Sri Lanka, under former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, signed a huge finance deal with China to build the Hambantota seaport. But Sri Lanka was unable to service the debt, and Rajapaksa's successor was forced to hand control of the seaport over to China. So now China has control of an important strategic seaport on the Indian Ocean, and an enclave of thousands of Chinese workers and their families on Sri Lanka soil.
So it was a great shock on October 26 when Mahinda Rajapaksa, the mastermind of the Hambantota project, was appointed prime minister by the current president, Maithripala Sirisena, after firing the existing prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. Sirisena has never explained the reason for his decision, but it's believed that Wickremesinghe is close to India, while Rajapaksa is close to China. Wickremesinghe has refused to leave the prime minister's residence, so for the last month Sri Lanka has had two prime ministers.
Sirisena also dissolved the parliament, but the parliament refused to be dissolved and remained in session. Last week, a vote was held to select the actual prime minister from the two choices, pandemonium broke out in the assembly when Rajapaksa's supporters threw books, chairs and chili paste at Wickremesinghe's supporters, in an attempt to keep from losing the vote.
On Friday, the parliament held another vote, this time to decide control of a crucial committee that sets the parliamentary agenda. When Wickremesinghe's supporters won the vote, Rajapaksa's supporters staged a walkout. Wickremesinghe argues that he still commands majority support within parliament and, despite being fired, he continues to occupy his official residence. On the other hand, Rajapaksa has lost two no-confidence votes in the parliament but has refused to stand down.
Despite having been forced to give up its Hambantota seaport to China, Sri Lanka still owes more than $50 billion to foreign lenders. Next year it has to pay more than $4 billion in debt servicing. The current constitutional crisis is causing the value of the Sri Lanka rupee to plummet, which means that the $4 billion will be much harder to pay.
Both Sri Lanka and the Maldives are very important strategic locations in the India Ocean, and seaports in those countries would be among China's "String of Pearls" seaports in the Indian Ocean, giving China a major strategic advantage. However, pro-Indian governments in both island countries would hand significant setbacks to China. Al Jazeera and Reuters and Al Jazeera and South China Morning Post (29-Oct)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Nov-18 World View -- Maldives can't determine how much money it owes to China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Nov-2018)
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Hyperinflation returns to Zimbabwe
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In the 1990s, Zimbabwe used to be the breadbasket of southern Africa, growing much more food than the country needed and exporting the rest. Then in 1999, president Robert Mugabe instituted a "land reform" plan. The Mugabe government seized, without compensation, farms owned by white farmers, farms that were operating well and producing a great deal of food. The farms were given to cronies in Mugable's Shona tribe, who knew nothing about farming. By 2002, Zimbabwe's farmland was in ruin and people were starving. Zimbabwe had been a food exporter, but became a food importer.
Now suddenly, and unexpectedly, Zimbabwe's government is proposing to compensate white farmers whose land was seized without compensation. On Thursday, Zimbabwe's finance minister Mthuli Ncube, who was trained at University of Cambridge and was appointed to his new post in September, issued his proposed budget for 2019. Buried deep in his budget document are the following paragraphs:
"202. Government is committed to finalizing the issue of compensation to former white farm owners who were affected by the Land Reform Programme, in accordance with the country’s law and commitments under the various bilateral agreements and the Constitution. ...206. In the interim, the 2019 Budget proposes to avail US$53 million towards payment of compensation to former white farm owners, whose disbursement will be targeted."
The proposal acknowledges that the $53 million in the budget is only a tiny fraction of the total compensation that would be required, so this is only a first step. But why do it at all? Has the government of Zimbabwe suddenly developed a conscience.
The answer is that Zimbabwe is no longer able to borrow money from the World Bank, until some of Zimbabwe's previous debts have been resolved. In particular, the United States is demanding that Zimbabwe provide at least partial restitution to for land seized from white farmers, before it will approve of any further World Bank loan to Zimbabwe. So Ncube is proposing a nominal payment of restitution to white farmers so that Zimbabwe, which is drowning in debt already, might be able to borrow more money from the World Bank.
So Zimbabwe is being forced, most assuredly against its will, to compensate white farmers for stolen land, so that Zimbabwe can go further into debt. That sounds like Karmic justice to me.
According to the World Bank: "Zimbabwe has enormous potential given its generous endowment of natural resources, an existing stock of public infrastructure, and comparatively well skilled human resources. However, realizing this will require prompt action to correct fiscal policies, re-stabilize the monetary system, and resolve arrears to international lenders that would allow for a resumption of development financing." Australian Broadcasting (5-Sep-2002) and Daily News (Zimbabwe) and Zimbabwe Finance Ministry and World Bank
After Mugabe's land seizures left the farmlands in ruin and the people starving, Zimbabwe began importing food. Mugabe was printing money to pay for imports, causing rapid inflation and then hyperinflation, which exceeded one million percent by 2009, making Zimbabwe currency worth less than toilet paper. Half the population was in severe poverty, with the greatest poverty among Mugabe's hated enemy, the Ndebele tribe.
The US dollar became the official currency, and for a few years the economy started to grow again. But in 2016, Mugabe started spending lavishly again, resulting in unsustainable fiscal deficits, and a cutoff of World Bank loans.
Since Zimbabwe was running out of foreign reserves (US dollars), Mugabe in December 2016 introduced the bond note, a new paper currency with each bond note worth one US dollar. Mugabe said that only a limited number of bond notes would be printed, so that hyperinflation would not recur.
However, bond note inflation has been occurring. According to official figures, the inflation rate was 20.9% in October. However, one analyst says that the official inflation rate is not accurate:
"The inflation print fails to account for the widening black market premium and therefore does not show the actual rate at which prices are rising in the informal market. October’s rapid increase in prices is likely to lead to even more confusion and panic among local consumers."
The black market inflation rate is 244.6%. Zimbabwe Herald and Bloomberg and New Zimbabwe
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Nov-18 World View -- Zimbabwe proposes to compensate white farmers as hyperinflation returns thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Nov-2018)
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Iraq War and the 58 Year Hypothesis
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Fourteen major French companies went on trial on Wednesday in the Appeals Court of Paris for taking part in a vast corruption scheme where hundreds of companies around the world paid $1.5 billion to Saddam Hussein in bribes and corrupt payments to win oil contracts in the Iraq War "Oil-for-food" program.
Saddam Hussein, as president of Iraq, had a long history of developing and using WMDs (weapons of mass destruction). Saddam had a long-standing program to develop nuclear weapons, and in 1981, Israeli war strikes destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor that could have been used to develop nuclear weapons. In 1988, towards the end of the Iran/Iraq war, Saddam had used mustard gas chemical weapons in 1988 to kill Kurds and Iranians.
In 1990, Hussein's Iraq invaded and annexed the country Kuwait, resulting in the first Gulf War, which ended up ejecting Iraq from Kuwait, but left Saddam Hussein in power, still able to produce WMDs. In the years that followed, Saddam continued to develop WMDs, and refused to permit UN inspectors to enter Iraq. In 1998, the Bill Clinton administration ordered air strikes against Iraq because it refused to cooperate with United Nations weapons inspectors.
The second Iraq War began in 2003 at a time when almost everyone in the world believed that Saddam was continuing WMD development, and the CIA reported that the evidence supported this. During all this time from 1991-2003, Iraq was heavily sanctioned in the hope of ending the WMD program.
Saddam always complained that the crippling sanctions were hurting ordinary Iraqi people, so in 1996 instituted the "oil-for-food" program. Under this program, Saddam could sell a limited amount of oil to other countries, and use the money to buy food and humanitarian goods for the Iraqi people. The United Nations was to serve as a watchdog.
Saddam corrupted the system by demanding that any company that wants to buy oil under this program would be invoiced for 110% of the actual cost of the oil. The 100% portion would be used to purchase food, and the other 10% would go into Saddam's own bank account. A UN inquiry led by former US Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker alleged in 2005 that the 2,200 companies involved in the programme had paid a total of $1.8 billion in kickbacks to win supply deals. Of those, 180 were French.
In 2016, French oil company Total was ordered to pay a $827,000 fine, the maximum allowed under French law, for corruption linked to the UN oil-for-food program. Other French companies were cleared of the charges because the situation did not match the offenses that French anti-corruption law is designed to prosecute. However, prosecutors hope that the judges in the trials that began on Wednesday for 14 companies will look at the situation differently, and will convict them.
The 14 companies include Renault Trucks, Legrand and Schneider Electric. The trial is expected to conclude by the end of November. Radio France International and Le Figaro (Paris) (Trans) and Deutsche Welle (2-Jul-2008) and Radio France International (26-Feb-2016)
The Iraq War has been called the worst war in American history, mainly by people with deficient reasoning skills that they can't figure out that without the war we would never have known that Saddam was not developing WMDs. After the war, President George Bush was able to leverage that discovery to convince Iran and Saudi Arabia to end their own WMD programs, and Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa late in 2003 ending their nuclear program.
The most vocal opponents of launching the Iraq war in 2003 were also those who were making huge amounts of money in corrupt practices in the oil-for-food program.
Kojo Annan, the son of Secretary-General Kofi Annan of the United Nations, was heavily involved in the scheme through the Swiss company Cotecna, which won a large oil-for-food contract.
Russia benefited the most from oil-for-food corruption, winning near a third of all the oil deals. Paul Volcker's UN inquiry identified the people involved, but none was prosecuted because the Russians refused to cooperate.
France was in second place in benefiting from the corrupt scheme. For years, we've had to listen to French commentators express moral superiority because they opposed the Iraq War. Actually, they were the worst of all, since the advisors to France's president Jacques Chirac were heavily involved in the Iraq corruption. Chirac would have happily let Saddam kill thousands of people with WMDs, as long as Chirac kept making money from it.
There was something really remarkable about the 2003 Iraq War in that there was almost universal panic, an unrealistic panic, about Saddam's development of WMDs. We don't get nearly as panicky today about Bashar al-Assad's use of Sarin gas in Syria, or Russia's use of Novichok nerve agent to kill people in Britain.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 2003 Iraq war was an example of the "58 year hypothesis," which says that when some sort of calamitous event occurs, then some sort of panic will occur exactly 58 years later. That's because 5-10 year old children at the time of the calamitous event all retire or die or lose power, all at once, 58 years later, and it's this cohort of people who panic, because they suddenly realize that they'll be gone and the younger generations won't be prepared. (See lengthier explanation at "The 58 Year Hypothesis")
So the 2003 panic over WMDs in Iraq occurred 58 years after the use of nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Another example of the 58 year hypothesis was the swine flu panic that occurred in 1976. Anyone alive at that time will remember the nationwide panic that occurred, and the demands for development of a swine flu vaccine, which turned out to be a disaster. That was 58 years after the devastating Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 that killed millions of people.
Another example was the 1987 stock market panic. If fizzled very quickly because it wasn't a real panic. It occurred 58 years after the 1929 stock market crash.
Another example is Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 2006. Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers near the Lebanon border. Israel went into a state of total panic, and launched the war in Lebanon within four hours, with no plan and no objectives. The war was a total disaster for Israel. It occurred 58 years after the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs in Palestine in 1948.
The 58 year hypothesis has turned out to be one of the most fascinating discoveries in the development of generational theory. It certainly doesn't explain everything, or even many things, but it does make sense of things like the "false panics" that occurred in 1976, 1987, 2003, and in Israel in 2006. Economist (13-Mar-2008) and Council of Foreign Relations (11-May-2006) and AP (Jan 2008)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Nov-18 World View -- Fourteen companies in France on trial over Iraq war oil-for-food corruption thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Nov-2018)
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New survey shows that Philippine people are anti-Chinese, pro-American
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Tuesday, China's president Xi Jinping visited Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte to sign 29 agreements. The agreements give China permission to drill for oil and gas in the Philippines territorial waters.
Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte has never made a secret of the reason why he has repeatedly acceded to the demands of China's president Xi Jinping, and why he's been giving up Philippines' sovereignty to Scarborough Shoal and to other parts of the South China Sea: He gave in to China because China threatened him militarily if he didn't comply.
In fact, in May of last year, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat explicit. Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil and gas in its own territorial waters, then China will go to war. Duterte concluded:
"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."
So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands.
Another part of Duterte's 2016 agreement with Xi was that China would provide $24 billion in loans and investment for infrastructure overhaul. Duterte used this promise of money from China to sell the appeasement to the people of the Philippines. However, a recent analysis revealed that China has only come through with a small portion of the promised investments. According to one Philippines analyst: "Duterte’s naivety with China has been a slam dunk strategic coup for China, no doubt about it."
The 29 agreements that Xi and Duterte signed on Tuesday are being described as "broad or vague, from cooperating in education, culture and industrial park development to jointly promoting infrastructure, agriculture cooperatives and establishing sanitation protocols for shipping coconuts." Of the 38 projects that Xi and Duterte agreed to in 2016, only four of them were among the commitments made on Tuesday.
Of particular significance is that one of the 29 deals is related to oil and gas development in Philippines territorial waters. The Philippines should receive 100% of the benefit, but China agreed to enter into a 60-40 joint exploration arrangement with the Philippines. Under the agreement, Manila will receive 60% of the oil and natural gas deposits while Beijing will get the remaining 40%.
It remains to be seen whether China will honor that agreement, or will renege on it and demand 100% of the oil and gas deposits for itself. Reuters and Manila Times and Reuters and Bloomberg
As I wrote in 2016, Duterte's "flip-flop" towards China couldn't last because polls show that 54% of the Philippine people have a favorable view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States. Nonetheless, Duterte's flip-flop still makes sense after Xi Jinping's threat to massacre the Philippines.
A new survey released on Tuesday by the Philippines social research institution Social Weather Stations (SWS) shows that anti-China sentiment continues to be extremely high.
This survey shows a great deal of trust and confidence in the United States, but a great deal of distrust in China, which is not surprising in view of China's increasingly belligerent and illegal military actions in the South China Sea. Duterte's policies of increasing appeasement of China's demands is creating a potentially explosive situation that could lead to conflict in any of a number of scenarios.
And by the way, other surveys have shown that the Chinese people have a great deal of contempt for the people of the Philippines. In 2012, a Chinese television anchor 'accidentally' claimed that the Philippines "is China's inherent territory and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty, this is an indisputable fact." The statement was later retracted, but it illustrates the state of mind of the Chinese people toward the Philippines.
As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. So in this case, war is inevitable because the Chinese people want a war.
Rodrigo Duterte and Donald Trump have something in common. They are both aware that China is headed for war with their respective countries. In both cases, their policies are little understood by the mainstream media, but they make perfect sense when seen as an attempt, perhaps even a desperate attempt, to try to prevent that war, and the resulting world war, from occurring. And as I've said before, I'm not going to criticize policies whose purpose is to prevent a world war, even if a world war is 100% certain. Social Weather Survey (Philippines) and Coconuts Manila
In my recent article on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit, held in Port Moresby, the capital city of Papua New Guinea (PNG), over the weekend, I described some incidents of extremely arrogant, belligerent behavior of Chinese officials at the meeting. ( "19-Nov-18 World View -- APEC meeting ends in disarray after harsh US-China disagreements")
However, it turns out that China's behavior was far worse than I had described. An article by Josh Rogin, who traveled with vice president Mike Pence to the conference, described China's "temper tantrum diplomacy, which was a series of aggressive, bullying, paranoid and weird stunts to try to exert dominance and pressure everyone into succumbing to its demands.
China's "weird stunts" included the following:
The more that I write about China, the more the message always comes through of the extreme contempt that the Chinese people have for other people -- not just Americans, but also people from Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, India, Australia, and pretty much everywhere else. This is an extremely dangerous situation that will not continue in this way for much longer. Washington Post and White House
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Nov-18 World View -- Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Nov-2018)
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People of Mexico are increasingly split between xenophobia
and sympathy toward migrants
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The United States closed off northbound traffic for several hours at the border crossing from Tijuana Mexico into San Ysidro, California. One of two pedestrian crossings were also closed, to prevent a mass rush of migrants across the border.
This is the busiest border crossing from Mexico to the United States. Closing the border crossing inconvenienced many of the about 110,000 people who cross the border every day in 40,000 vehicles, in order to commute to work.
The border crossing had to be closed for several hours to permit the installation of movable, wire-topped barriers.
Tensions at the border have been building as nearly 3,000 migrants from a caravan arrived in Tijuana in recent days, the first of a series of migrant caravans that began in October. The federal government estimates the number of migrants could soon swell to 10,000, as additional migrant caravans arrive. The migrants are arriving from Central American countries.
The migrants are planning to apply for asylum in the United States at the San Ysidro portal. However, US border inspectors are processing only about 100 asylum claims per day.
Tijuana officials converted a municipal gymnasium and recreational complex into a shelter to keep migrants out of public spaces. The city's privately run shelters have a maximum capacity of 700. The municipal complex can hold up to 3,000.
Tijuana Mayor Juan Manuel Gastelum has called the migrants' arrival an "avalanche" that the city is ill-prepared to handle, calculating that they will be in Tijuana for at least six months as they wait to file asylum claims. Gastelum has appealed to the federal government for more assistance, but so far the government in Mexico City has refused.
Because Tijuana's resources are overwhelmed, cities "upstream" along the caravan route are slowing down the flow.
The city of Mexicali is 100 miles away along the highway to Tijuana. There are 1,300 Honduran migrants crowded into shelters in Mexicali, waiting to travel to Tijuana. However, Mexican police this weekend blocked their buses from proceeding to Tijuana, because the latter city is already full of migrants.
The group began as 7,000 migrants who left San Pedro Sula, Honduras, about a month ago, fleeing poverty, gang violence and lawlessness. The 1,300 who arrived in Mexicali are considering options, including making the extremely dangerous journey to Tijuana on foot. Hundreds more are expected in Mexicali next week.
Migrants in Guadalajara, the capital city of Jalisco state, about 1,200 miles south of Tijuana, were apparently played a cruel trick by government officials. The government of Jalisco had promised to provide transportation to Nayrit, 120 miles away, for nearly 6,000 migrants staying in Guadalajara. Instead, they provided buses for only 2,000, and then forced them off the bus on the outskirts of Jalisco, still over 62 miles away from the closest town in Nayarit. Then they blocked the other 3,000 migrants from receiving food packages, saying that "they are only for those who are leaving on the buses." Instead, the state will provide water, some food and escorts at nine points along the main highway leading through the state to help ensure the migrants don't have to stop.
And in Mexico City, authorities closed a shelter at a sports complex that had once housed thousands of migrants. The remaining 650 migrants from the third, mainly Salvadoran, caravan were taken to a Roman Catholic pilgrimage hostel at the Basilica of Guadalupe. The city said the hostel would be warmer. AP and Palm Springs Desert Sun (18-Nov) and Regeneración Radio (15-Nov)
Although most Mexicans have been sympathetic and supportive toward the central American migrants, and have provided food and water to them along their travels, there is a growing minority of Mexicans, especially in the northern states close to the US border, who are expressing hostile xenophobic attitudes towards the migrants.
Over the weekend, a few hundred Tijuanenses gathered in Tijuana's high-end Rio area to protest the migrants. Demonstrators held signs reading "No illegals," "No to the invasion" and "Mexico First." Many wore the country's red, white and green national soccer jersey and vigorously waved Mexican flags. The crowd often slipped into chants of "Ti-jua-na!" and "Me-xi-co!" They sang the national anthem several times. One was quoted as saying, "We want the caravan to go, they are invading us. They should have come into Mexico correctly, legally, but they came in like animals."
A Facebook page called “Tijuana against the migrant caravan,” which promotes the rejection of migrants. Five days after it was created, the group already had 4,000 followers. Through social media, local citizens are requesting for foreigners to be taken out of the city, with slogans such as “Defend your country, kill a Honduran.” The group members argued that migrants were criminals, and that there were drug addicts, gang members, and even murderers among their ranks.
As long-time readers are aware, nationalism and xenophobia have been increasing in countries around the world, as the world goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, and the survivors of World War II, who understood the dangers of nationalism and xenophobia, are now all pretty much gone.
At the same time, as the global population has been growing faster than the global supply of food and other resources, poverty has been increasing, leading to mass migrations in many parts of the world, including Latin America, Europe, Africa and Asia. Some of these mass migrations are intentionally caused by leaders of countries, including Syria, Myanmar (Burma), Venezuela, and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These mass migrations tax the resources of the countries receiving the migrants, and might lead to a regional war that could spiral into a larger war at any time. These mass migrations are expected to become larger each year.
With regard to the influx of Hondurans into Mexico, there has not been a major war between Honduras and Mexico in recent centuries, so the bouts of anti-Honduran xenophobia that are occurring today in Tijuana and elsewhere are unlikely to spiral into something more serious. NPR and El Universal and Guardian (London)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Nov-18 World View -- Migrant caravans creating chaos and hostility in Mexico thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Nov-2018)
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Aggressive behavior of China's officials raises concerns about security
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Four days ago, I described the approaching meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit, being held in Port Moresby, the capital city of Papua New Guinea (PNG) over the weekend as a competition for influence between China and Australia.
There was indeed such a competition, but it was the competition between China and the US that made the biggest news. The media were predicting that the US presence would be almost minimal because president Donald Trump was not going to attend.
But in Trump's place was vice president Mike Pence who spoke very harshly about China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its use of debt trap diplomacy in infrastructure projects that were intended to benefit China more than the countries that are being put into debt. The result was that for the first time ever, the APEC meeting ended with no joint communiqué.
Pence's speech included a joke about "a constricting belt or a one-way road":
"Too often they come with strings attached and lead to staggering debt. Do not accept foreign debt that could compromise your sovereignty. Just like America, always put your country first. ...Know that the United states offers a better option. We don't drown our partners in a sea of debt. We don't coerce or compromise your independence. The United States deals openly and fairly. We do not offer a constricting belt or a one-way road.
When you partner with us, we partner with you. and we all prosper."
China's president Xi Jinping spoke before Pence did, but he responded to much of what Pence said:
"Mankind has once again reached a crossroads. Which direction should we choose - confrontation or cooperation? Openness or closing one's door? Win-win progress or zero sum game. The interest of all countries and the future of mankind hinge on the choices that we make. ...Let me make this clear. The Belt and Road Initiative is an open platform for cooperation. It is guided by the principles of consultation and cooperation for a share of the benefit. It is not designed to assure any hidden geopolitical agenda. It is not targeted against anyone, and it does not exclude anyone."
China has been losing a great deal of credibility over debt trap diplomacy because more examples keep emergency. Everybody has now heard of the Seaport of Hambantota, a Chinese infrastructure project in Sri Lanka, funded with a loan from China, with almost all the labor performed by Chinese workers, and all parts and services imported from China, so that the loan money never benefited Sri Lanka's industries. Sri Lanka was unable to repay the loan, and in December of last year, Sri Lanka was forced to give the seaport away to China. So now Sri Lanka has a large seaport owned by China, and a large Chinese enclave with hundreds of Chinese families, with no benefit to itself and to its own people.
China's loans and aid in the Pacific region have gone from almost zero to $1.8 billion in the last decade, and China has pledged to spend $8 billion more.
Fiji owes China half a billion dollars, and Tonga now owes more than $160 million, or one-third of its GDP. Several other Pacific Island countries are also overwhelmed with debt to China.
There has been major drama involving China and Tonga in the last few days. Tonga has been begging China for relief from its debts for several months, with no success. But then a few days ago Tonga's prime minister called on the Pacific Islands to band together against China. Tonga backtracked on this call within a few days, but the reasons were unclear. And then it emerged on Sunday that China was granting Tonga a five-year reprieve in paying back the loan.
As part of that announcement, China will lend Tonga more money for yet another BRI infrastructure project. Reuters and Australian Broadcasting (16-Nov) and BBC and Australian Broadcasting
There were several incidents of extremely aggressive behavior of Chinese diplomats attending the APEC conference.
On Saturday, four Chinese officials barged into the office of PNG's foreign minister Rimbink Pato, after they had been denied a private meeting. Security was called to the office and the officials had to be forced from the room. As a result, additional police were stationed at the government building to guard Pato's office.
China demanded the meeting because it wanted to make sure that the draft version of the final communiqué (which, in the end, was never issued anyway) contained language that was satisfactory to China. The US wanted to including language, directed at China without mentioning China, calling for reforms to world trading rules to target predatory trade conduct and demanding state-owned enterprises be forced to compete on a level playing field with private businesses. China apparently barged into Pato's office to make sure that the communiqué did not contain the US language.
The second issue is that Chinese officials strictly controlled media access to Xi Jinping, even ejecting PNG journalists who had been invited to cover a meeting between Xi Jinping and some Pacific Island leaders. Apparently Xi Jinping prevented any but Chinese media from having any opportunity to ask a question. One can only guess why. Australian Broadcasting and Bloomberg and Australian Broadcasting
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Nov-18 World View -- APEC meeting ends in disarray after harsh US-China disagreements thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(19-Nov-2018)
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Jair Bolsonaro moves Brazil sharply to the right
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Cuba announced that it will pull thousands of its doctors from Brazil, in reaction to demands by the newly elected Jair Bolsonaro, who takes office as president on January 1.
There are 11,400 Cuban doctors working in Brazil under the Programa Mais Médicos (PMM, More Doctors Program) that was set up in 2013 by left-wing former president Dilma Rousseff.
The Mais Médicos program was hailed as a huge success by Rousseff's supporters. During the first two years, 18,240 physicians were hired, including 11,429 Cubans, 5,274 Brazilians and the remaining 1,537 of other nationalities. They works in more than four thousand municipalities throughout Brazil, and treat 63 million Brazilians. Many of these were poor and indigenous communities where no doctor had previously been available. These included communities of former African-Brazilian slaves (Quilombos), to the indigenous population, the landless peasants and those living in the Northeastern outback.
However, from the beginning Mais Médicos was extremely controversial. The doctors complained that they were being forced to work as slaves. Brazil has to pay $3,300 per month to the Cuban government, but only one-quarter of that money goes to the doctor, giving him barely enough to live on, and not enough to send money back to his family in Cuba as remittances. Cuba receives about $250 million per year for its doctors in Brazil. Losing that money will be a hard blow for Cuba's ailing economy.
The Cuban government has reported it earns more than $12.5 billion a year from the work of its professionals abroad. Most of that money comes from Venezuela, where tens of thousands of Cubans are working, including 21,000 health workers.
Cuba prevents the doctor's family from joining him in Brazil or Venezuela, and the family suffered consequences if the doctor doesn't do as ordered by Cuba. By keeping control of the family, Cuba prevents the doctors from defecting. Rousseff was removed from office in 2016 on corruption charges, and her Mais Médicos has grown in controversy insce then.
Many Cuban doctors do defect and request asylum in Brazil. In the past, they could apply for asylum in the United States under the Cuban Medical Professional Parole (CMPP) Program, set up by George Bush in 2006. However, this program was terminated by Barack Obama on January 12, 2017.
Upon being elected, President-elect Jair Bolsonaro threatened to break off diplomatic relations with Cuba over Mais Médicos, because of the near-slave conditions under which the doctors have to work. He demanded that the doctors receive the full $3,300 amount that Brazil now pays to Cuba, and that the doctors' families be permitted to join the doctors in Brazil. He also questioned the qualifications of the Cuban doctors and said they would have to renew their licenses in Brazil.
Cuba’s Health Ministry rejected Bolsonaro’s comments as “contemptuous and threatening” to the presence of our doctors” in a statement announcing its withdrawal from the program, adding, "These unacceptable conditions make it impossible to maintain the presence of Cuban professionals in the program."
Brazil's Ministry of Health announced that it will launch a public notice in the coming days for Brazilian doctors who want to fill the vacancies to be left by Cuban professionals. Reuters and Miami Herald and Rio Times (18-Sep-2015) and Miami Herald (12-Mar-2018) and Rio Times (15-Nov)
Jair Bolsonaro is being called "Trump of the Tropics" because of his incendiary comments and because many of his policies are perceived to be similar to those of Donald Trump.
He's sending out a tough anti-crime message, and he's supporting wider ownership of guns. This tough message has won him increased support among women. He's strongly opposed to the legalization of abortion, which won the support of many evangelical Christians.
For the economy, he makes the usual proposals to reduce government waste. He also promised to reduce state intervention in the economy. He originally proposed selling off parts of state-run Petrobras oil company, but later backed off.
On foreign policy, he has suggested that Brazil pull out of the 2015 Paris agreement on climate change. He favors moving Brazils embassy Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and closing the Palestinian embassy in Brazil. He has also said that his first foreign trip as president would be to Israel. BBC (28-Oct) and BBC (23-Oct)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Nov-18 World View -- Cuba to pull thousands of doctors out of Brazil after right-wing Jair Bolsonaro wins election thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Nov-2018)
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North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As the charm offensive involving the Koreas and the United States continues, the North Koreans have made their next move, with an announcement in North Korean media that "Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un Supervises Newly Developed Tactical Weapon Test."
The news report describes the weapon as an "ultramodern tactical weapon", and combines a description of the child dictator's glee with claims that his father Kim Jong-il had the engineering skill to have personally directed the new weapon's development:
"After seeing the power of the tactical weapon, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was so excited to say that another great work was done by the defense scientists and munitions industrial workers to increase the defense capability of the country and the weapon system whose development Chairman Kim Jong-il had chosen personally and directed step by step with his special attention paid to it was born at last. He added that the weapon is just like a posthumous weapon and he missed Kim Jong-il very much while seeing the great success of its test. ...He expressed great satisfaction, saying the great success serves as another striking demonstration of the validity of the Party policy of prioritizing defense science and technology and the rapidly developing defense capability of the country and as a decisive turn in bolstering the fighting capacity of the Korean People's Army."
No further description was given of the weapon. It's described as a "tactical weapon," and one online definition of that phrase says that "Tactical weapons are designed for offensive or defensive use at relatively short range with relatively immediate consequences." We assume then that the word "tactical" was used purposely to imply that the weapon would not be used against the United States, but could be used against South Korea.
We further assume that therefore this announcement was meant as a warning to South Korea's president Moon Jae-in. We take note of the fact that North Korea has never repudiated its primary mission of using military force to reunite North and South Korea under North Korean control.
So one purpose of the announcement is to reassure the North Korean domestic audience that weapons development is continuing, and preparations for an invasion of the South are continuing.
A second purpose might be retaliation for the resumption by the US and South Korea earlier this month of some minor joint military marine drills.
Third, we can assume that Kim's announcement was intended as a threat of war to South Korea, unless Moon Jae-in meets Kim's demands, including declaring an end to the Korean War, and convincing President Trump to agree to reduce sanctions. DPRK Today and Reuters and ABC News
A year ago at this time, it appeared that the United States and North Korea were close to war, after multiple nuclear and ballistic missile tests by the North Koreans.
The climate changed dramatically early in January, when Kim Jong-un began his "charm offensive," based on North Korea's participation in the Olympics games in Seoul, South Korea.
Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in immediately responded with their own "charm counter-offensive." All sides stood down from threats and threatening actions, and had a sort of love-in, with various summit meetings and actions like clearing land mines along the South-North border.
It was quickly apparent to everyone that North Korea had no intention to denuclearize under any circumstances. Nonetheless, the charm offensive/counter-offensive has been a great convenience that has met the needs for all sides:
It was pretty clear to everyone (except the news media and the general public) within a month from the beginning of the charm offensive that it was all a show -- that North Korea would never denuclearize, and that Trump would never agree to reduce the sanctions. But all sides kept it up because it solve their immediate political problems by "kicking the can down the road" -- that is, masking and hiding problems and postponing them until later.
The charm offensive has been going on for almost a year. Could it go on for another year? Maybe. That's the kind of chaotic political decision that cannot be predicted.
President Trump has said that he's in no hurry, implying that he's willing to continue the charm offensive indefinitely if necessary. However, it's the North that is suffering under the sanctions, Kim Jong-un seems to be increasingly impatient about the sanctions.
So it's really up to Kim how long the charm offensive / counter-offensive will last. He may decide that sanctions will never be lifted anyway, and so there's no point in waiting. He may take action next week, next month or next year. All we can do is wait. Yonhap (S. Korea) and Reuters and Defense News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Nov-2018)
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China's crackdown on religions continues
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The ambassadors to China from a group of 15 Western countries are reportedly taking coordinated action to condemn China's human rights record in Xinjiang province, where evidence has been accumulating for several months that about a million Chinese citizens of Uighur ethnicity are forcibly locked up in vast "re-education centers" or "re-education prisons," where they're required to sing Chinese Communist Party (CCP) songs and pledge allegiance to the CCP.
The 15 ambassadors have drafted a letter to be sent to Chen Quanguo, Xinjiang’s CCP boss. The draft letter reads in part:
"We are deeply troubled by reports of the treatment of ethnic minorities, in particular individuals of Uighur ethnicity, in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.In order to better understand the situation, we request a meeting with you at your earliest convenience to discuss these concerns."
The project is being led by Canada. The other 14 countries are Britain, France, Switzerland, European Union, Germany, Netherlands, Australia, Ireland, Sweden, Belgium, Norway, Estonia, Finland and Denmark.
The response from China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying was both angry and bizarre. Here are excerpts:
An ambassador is supposed to promote the mutual understanding, mutual trust and cooperation between the receiving state and the sending state, rather than raise unreasonable requests and interfere in the internal affairs of the receiving state based on hearsay.
Maybe you could interview these ambassadors and ask them whether they have got all the facts straight before writing this letter. Do they know that we have another 54 ethnic minority groups besides the Han and the Uyghur? Do they know that China has more than 40 laws and regulations including the Constitution which have clear stipulations on ethnic minority groups' usage and development of their languages and cultures? Maybe you could ask these ambassadors whether the ethnic minority groups in their countries like the US and Canada, learn English? Is their learning of English also considered as an attempt by their governments to extinguish or assimilate languages and cultures of the ethnic minority groups? ...
I think what they have done is very rude and unacceptable. We hope that they could fulfill their duties and obligations as ambassadors, work to help their countries learn about China in a truthful, all-around and multidimensional way, and play a positive and constructive role in enhancing mutual trust, friendship and cooperation between their countries and China.
I would like to reiterate that Xinjiang as an open region welcomes those who go there with goodwill. Anyone harboring malicious intentions and prejudice and seeking to interfere in China's internal affairs will be firmly rejected."
So China's re-education prisons are being compared to Americans and Canadians learning to speak English. As far as I know, we don't beat, torture and jail people until they learn English. That's about as bizarre as you can get.
Beyond that, the statement contains no attempt to address the charges of human rights abuses in Xinjiang except to call the ambassadors' actions "very rude and unacceptable."
Finally, the description of Xinjiang as "an open region" may be true in a sense, but several BBC on-site investigations show that every word and action is rigidly controlled by the security forces. BBC reporters may be allowed into Xinjiang but they're closely followed by "minders," and prevented from approaching the re-education prisons.
The letter by 15 ambassadors will not cause China to change its behavior -- nothing ever does -- but it will embarrass the Chinese and make it more difficult for them to continue lying. CNN and Reuters and BBC (26-Oct) and China Foreign Ministry
The Uighurs are Muslims, but as I've described several times in the past, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) considers all non-indigenous religions to be dangerous. These include Islam, Protestantism, Catholicism and Buddhism.
The reason is that pretty much every religion has, at one time or another, been the underpinning of an anti-government rebellion in China.
So the Buddhist White Lotus Society led the Red Turban Rebellion that overthrew the Yuan Dynasty in 1358, and came close to overthrowing the Qing dynasty in the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1804). Of course the Tibetan Buddhists frightens the CCP, and the Falun Gong movement, which is also Buddhist-based, terrifies the CCP.
The CCP has been particularly heavy-handed this year in cracking down on Christianity. That's partially because of the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64). That rebellion was led by Hong Xiuquan who had been converted to Christianity by a Protestant missionary, and who had a hallucinatory vision that he was the son of God and the younger brother of Jesus. He formed the Society of God Worshippers that spread and drew converts from ethnic Hakkas to form the Taiping Army that, once again, almost overthrew the Qing Dynasty.
China, throughout its history, has rarely been able to govern itself, and was frequently conquered by outside armies. It took only small armies of Mongols to rule China for centuries, and then a small army of Manchus to do the same for centuries. When China wasn't being conquered and ruled by outside armies, it was a country of regions and warlords fighting each other. It's only since Mao's Communist Revolution in 1949 that China was finally self-governing through a central government, but even that was almost destroyed by Mao's Great Leap Forward and Mao's Great Cultural Revolution, which killed tens of millions of people through starvation and execution.
Today, the CCP is the most paranoid government on earth. They're even afraid of Winnie the Pooh because Winnie the Pool looks like president Xi Jinping, and might be used as a symbol to trigger a rebellion. Can you imagine Donald Trump or another Western leader being terrified of Winnie the Pooh? Yet, Xi Jinping is terrified of Winnie the Pooh. That's how pathetic he is as a leader. He's made himself into a total dictator, and the only way he can rule is by killing, torture, rape, abductions, massacres, atrocities, or, in the case of the Uighurs, massive re-education prisons holding millions of people.
The CCP has identified what it calls the "five poisons" of society that must be controlled or stamped out. These are Tibetans, Uighur Muslims, democracy activists, Taiwanese, and Falun Gong practitioners.
The equivalent situation in America would be if the government declared blacks and Catholics to be "poisons," along with gun owners and Jews, would need to be sent to re-education prisons to be forced to become Protestants.
In July, a group of 30 workers at Jasic Technology in Shenzen who were treated abusively and weren't being paid decided to unionize. The CCP jailed them for "gathering a crowd to disrupt public order," not even letting them see a lawyer. Last week, Marxist and Maoist students from Peking University and other colleges traveled to Shenzen to form the "Jasic Workers' Solidarity Group" to support the workers.
To the paranoid CCP, this situation is very dangerous, because it could lead to an anti-government rebellion, so naturally these groups of students have been violently rounded up and jailed. This was followed by a crackdown on student activism on campus, banning Marxist study groups, and punishing students at Peking University, Renmin University and Nanjing University. The CCP know very well that the government was brought down in 1949 by Marxist and Maoist forces, and they know that it could happen again.
So whether it's Winnie the Pooh, or the Uighurs, or the Tibetans, or the Falun Gong, the Chinese government are terrified of everything, and consider pretty much everyone to be their enemy.
Like central governments throughout China's history, the CCP is extremely weak and will end as quickly as it began. It can't govern except by developing massive weapons systems and planning for a war that it will lose, but not before it's brought catastrophe to itself and the entire world. Radio Free Asia (12-Nov) and AP and Economist
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Nov-18 World View -- Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Nov-2018)
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500 US marines and other foreign troops arrive in PNG for APEC meeting
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The USS Green Bay amphibious transport dock ship arrived in Port Moresby, the capital city of Papua New Guinea (PNG), on Wednesday, with 500 US marines and US Navy servicemen to provide security and support for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit being held later this week.
About 4,000 military personnel, around half of them foreign, will work with hundreds of police to patrol Port Moresby for APEC, which will attract representatives from 21 nations.
There is a 1,500-strong Australian Defense Force (ADF) contingent, along with RAAF F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters, surveillance aircraft and a helicopter carrier moored in Port Moresby harbor. Vessels from Australia, New Zealand and the US will guard the capital's shores, and all three countries have provided special forces. Working alongside them in an operation that has taken more than a year to plan will be about 2,000 Papua New Guinea (PNG) troops.
Much of the summit will take place in a $35 million convention centre built with Chinese aid and Beijing has donated nine fire engines, along with 50 coaches and 35 mini buses for use at the event. However, Chinese troops were excluded from the security forces.
Papua New Guinea (PNG) is an island nation near Australia, which provides it regularly with substantial aid. All of this security is considered necessary because PNG is one of poorest, most corrupt, and most dangerous countries in the world. Feared street gangs known as "raskols" have made car jackings common and the country has among the highest rates of rape and domestic violence in the world. PNG has a population of 8 million — speaking 800 distinct languages and spread out across some 600 islands. With 15,000 delegates expected at the summit, security is essential. And due to a lack of hotel accommodations, many will sleep in the three cruise liners docked at the port.
In view of the corruption, poverty and street violence, many people are concerned that PNG will not be able to pull this summit meeting off. It's hoped that the massive influx of troops from the US, Australia and New Zealand, as well as support from other countries, will make the meeting a success.
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, is a forum for facilitating economic growth, cooperation, trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region. The 21 members are the United States, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Donald Trump will not be attending the conference, much to the relief, according to some reports, of the summit organizers. Instead, Mike Pence will be representing to the United States. Stars and Stripes and Asia Pacific Report and AFP and Guardian (London)
Despite PNG's weak economy, high unemployment, corruption and street violence, China still has considerable interest in PNG's vast swathes of timber, and huge mineral, oil and gas deposits, which China is looking to exploit.
China's investments in the region as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) grew to $2.46 billion in the last year alone for infrastructure projects such as roads and seaports.
Australia has become alarmed by this incursion into its sphere of influence. As a result, prime minister Scott Morrison is announcing a new "Pivot to the Pacific" program, where Australia will provide grants and long-term loans for $2 billion for "high priority" projects, inclding telecommunications, energy, transport and water.
Morrison said:
"Australia has an abiding interest in a Southwest Pacific that is secure strategically, stable economically and sovereign politically. This is not just our region, or our neighborhood. It's our home."
This announcement infuriated the Chinese, who must see it as a threat to their unimpeded access to the region's resources that China wishes to exploit. China's vice foreign minister Zheng Zeguang issued a harsh response, accusing Australia of a "cold war mentality":
"The Pacific Island region is not a sphere of influence of any country.[Australia should] objectively look at the relations between China and the Pacific Island countries and to abandon Cold War mentality and the zero-sum game mentality, which are both outdated. ...
Other countries should not obstruct China's friendly cooperation and exchanges with the island nations. Of course, they have no way to obstruct this cooperation and these exchanges."
The government of PNG says that it has no intention at all of choosing one of China or Australia over the other. It also says that it is ready to accept aid and donations from all sides.
PNG's prime minister Peter O'Neill says that he is willing to play peacemaker at the APEC summit. "It's not for me to address either of those countries through the media as to what they should do, but as I have said, for us, they are great friends of this country. So we will do all we can to ensure, if we can, that there are no conflicts, to the extent possible," he said. Australian Broadcasting and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Australian Broadcasting (8-Nov) and Time
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Nov-18 World View -- China and Australia compete for influence at APEC meeting in Papua New Guinea (PNG) thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Nov-2018)
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Split in Libya reflects the fault line in the Arab world
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Seven years after the fall of long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya now has two governments. In the West, including the capital city Tripoli, Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj leads a weak government, known as the Government of National Accord (GNA), internationally recognized by America, Europe and the United Nations.
Most of the east of Libya is ruled by Khalifa Haftar, a military strongman and former Gaddafi ally, who is considered an international "renegade." There are fears that a war will break out between the eastern and western factions at some time in the near future.
It's doubtful that most Europeans care deeply who is in charge of Libya, but one thing that they do care deeply about is the flow of migrants from Libya to Europe. For that reason, the Europeans want to see a single government in Libya, and a government with which it can negotiate to keep the migrant flow under control.
Libya's former colonial power, Italy, hosted a conference in Palermo on Tuesday, to bring all interested parties together, with the objective of having an election for the leader of a unified government.
The conference was hosted by Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte. About 20 countries are participating in the conference, including representatives from the US, European governments and Arab countries. Top names in attendance include Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, European Council President Donald Tusk and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini.
The conference didn't accomplish much, but there was a lot of drama.
Originally, Haftar refused to say whether he would even come to Palermo. Then Haftar did arrive, but on Tuesday said that he would not attend the conference, choosing instead to "hold a series of meetings with presidents of regional countries to discuss the latest national and international developments" on the sidelines.
So then Haftar attended a meeting on the sidelines of conference, also attended by Fayez al-Serraj, as well as leaders of France, Russia and Italy.
However, Turkey was not invited to that particular meeting. Turkey's vice president Fuat Oktay stormed out of the international conference, blaming Conte for "attempts to keep Turkey out of the process" in Libya.
At the end of the conference, there was no statement issued. But the parties agreed that an election previously scheduled for December would not be held, but would be postponed to May of next year. And many people considered the conference a great success, simply because Fayez al-Serraj and Khalifa Haftar smiled and shook hands. Deutsche Welle and Hurriyet Daily News (Turkey) and Middle East Eye and Reuters
One reason that the split between east and west Libya hasn't been resolved is their supporters are split along the same growing fault line that became apparent several years ago.
Turkey, Qatar and Italy all support the western GNA government of Fayez al-Serraj, and are supportive of Islamists, including the Muslim Brotherhood. Russia, France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) support Haftar, who is an anti-Islamist military man.
This split in the Arab world has been growing in recent years. Recall that in June of last year, several Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE), broke relations with Qatar and imposed an air, sea and land blockade on Qatar. The blockade is still in place, with no end in sight, despite international attempts to resolve it.
More recently, the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, apparently by a Saudi hit squad, has continued as an international incident, adding more tensions between Saudi Arabia versus Turkey and Qatar.
This deepening split among the Arab and Mideast nations makes it all the more unlikely that agreement will be reached on a unified government in Libya.
The situation is complicated still further by signs that Russia is deepening its military involvement in Libya, sending in Vladimir Putin's "private" military companies (PMCs), as he has done in Syria and Central African Republic. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic")
Putin has taken an interest in Libya at least since the overthrow of Gaddafi in 2011, and has actively supported Khalifa Haftar. There have already been military clashes between Haftar's forces and militias around Tripoli in the West, and the involvement of Russia makes Syrian war situation more likely than an election. Al-Jazeera (Qatar) and Meduza (Russia) and Jamestown
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Nov-18 World View -- Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Nov-2018)
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Palestinians demand 'revenge', but Hamas backs off from war
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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An Israeli army officer and seven Palestinians were killed in a gunfight that followed a botched Israeli army military undercover operation in Gaza on Sunday evening.
Israeli special forces members wore women's clothing to avoid detection, and crossed the border into Gaza. This follows another "cloak and dagger" operation on Thursday, when a car crossed into Gaza carrying three suitcases in the back seat stuffed with $15 million in cash from Qatar.
When the car was two miles into Gaza, near Khan Younis, fighters of the Izzedine Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, stopped the car and asked to see ID cards. A gunfight ensued, killing one Israeli military officer, who hasn't been identified, and seven Palestinians. One of the Palestinians was an Al-Qassam Brigades senior command, Noureddin Mohammad Salama Baraka, 37.
Due to the secrecy of the operation, Israel has not revealed specific purpose of the mission. According to one reported, it was an intelligence gathering operation that went wrong. According to another report, the objective was to kill Baraka, although this is specifically denied by Israel, saying that the operation was "not intended to kill or abduct terrorists, but to strengthen Israeli security."
The Israeli car fled the scene, followed by Al-Qassam fighters, who were bombed from the air by an extraction operation that rescued the Israelis with a helicopter. Guardian (London) and Jerusalem Post and International Mideast Media Center (Palestine) and AP
In the worst bout of fighting since the end of the 67-day war between Israel and Gaza in 2014, Palestinians launched over 200 rockets and mortar bombs into Israel on Monday. One mortar bomb hit a bus, wounding an Israeli. At least seven Israelis were wounded by other rocket strikes.
Israeli tanks and fighter jets retaliated by bombing sites across Gaza. Palestinian officials said that at least three people, including two militants, were killed. Israeli missiles also struck and destroyed Gaza's Al-Aqsa television station, as well as a number of apartment buildings believed to house Hamas militants.
This intense exchange of fire occurred just two days after $15 million in money from Qatar entered Gaza, paying civil service workers' salaries. This money was supposed to help bring calm, but it's worth noting that the money to pay civil service workers' salaries was blocked for months not by Israel but by Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. Abbas strongly opposed the infilitration of Qatari money last week, as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause, and may be pleased with Monday's exchange of fire.
Reports are that the Israeli army is preparing for all-out war in Gaza, renewing the 2014 summer Gaza war, especially after Hamas threatened on Monday that Israel will pay a “heavy price” for the operation.
However, Egypt and the UN, which in the past have been mediators between Israel and Hamas are hoping to bring about a ceasefire. In addition, a number of analysts are saying that Hamas doesn't want a war with Israel, at least not at this time, or to give Israel an excuse to launch a major military operation in Gaza.
Besides saying that Israel will pay a "heavy price," Hamas's rhetoric has not gone further to say that the incident will affect efforts to reach a truce agreement with Israel. Also, Hamas leaders have not accused Israel of sabotaging the ongoing efforts to achieve a truce in the Gaza Strip. Nor have they indicated that Hamas views the incident, which took place near Khan Younis, as a trigger for another war with Israel.
Hamas and militants in Gaza have been attacking Israel with rockets that have no guidance systems. Reports indicate that they also possess an arsenal of middle range and long-range missiles that reach cities all across Israel, but they have refrained from using them.
Hamas issued a statement saying, "The resistance last night taught the enemy a harsh lesson and turned its intelligence system into the laughing stock of the world." The statement claimed that Hamas scored a major victory over the Israelis, who were forced to flee after being spotted by Hamas militants.
What these statements mean is that the leaders of Hamas have much to lose at this time in a war with Israel, especially with the influx of Qatari money and promises of further concessions. That means that there probably won't be a new Gaza war, at least for a while.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Jerusalem Post (11-Nov) and Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post and Israel National News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Nov-18 World View -- Eight people killed in botched Israeli military operation in Gaza thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Nov-2018)
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North Korea - South Korea reunification talks continue
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Now that the US midterm elections have taken place, there's no longer any reason to pretend that North Korea is ever going to denuclearize, and so North Korea's child dictator may be taking hard new steps to pressure the Trump administration to get what he wants: Lifting the sanctions with no requirement to denuclearize.
Last week North Korea's lead negotiator, Kim Yong-chol, refused to show up for a scheduled meeting on Thursday with the US chief negotiator, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This cancellation was apparently unexpected, and the State Dept. scrambled to say that the meeting had been postponed, and would take place "when our respective schedules permit."
President Trump himself kept up the pretense last week by saying: "We’re in no rush. We’re in no hurry. ... We’re very happy how it’s going with North Korea. We think it’s going fine."
This comes at a time when North Korean is becoming increasingly belligerent in threatening to resume nuclear weapons and ballistic missile development if the United States continued to refuse to back down on sanctions. China and Russia are also both pressuring the United States to agree to ease sanctions.
North Korea is taking no real steps toward denuclearization, even refusing to take the simple step of providing a list of all its nuclear development sites. The symbolic steps that it was taking, dismantling a missile test site that it didn't need anyway, have apparently ended, based on satellite imagery. And a key facility in the process of creating nuclear weapons grade uranium, is still running.
Many people believe that North Korea is continuing development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, lacking only the ability to openly test the developments. Many people also believe that they have no intention of stopping that development under any circumstances, but still hoping that international pressure will force the Trump administration to left sanctions.
For the time being, the denuclearization pretense is continuing on both sides. Once the North concludes that the Trump administration cannot be pressured to lift the sanctions, then they'll probably also conclude that there's no reason not to resume public nuclear and missile testing.
North Korea has been playing hardball recently, and that may indicate that the decision to resume testing is not far off. The "North Korea crisis" has been out of the news for a while, but one way or another expect the crisis to be in the news again soon, especially now that the midterms are over. The Hill and The Diplomat and International Business Times and Daily Beast
The office of South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in sent a gift of 200 tons of tangerines to North Korea's president Kim Jong-un on Sunday, in return for a gift of mushrooms from the North. This gift is part of a separate, but related, negotiation track going on between South and North Korea.
More significant than the tangerines is that the The North and South Korean military completed withdrawing troops and firearms from 22 front-line guard posts on Saturday. There are over 100 guard posts on both sides, and the plan is to disarm almost all of them by next year.
The Koreas have also been clearing mines from front-line areas and plan to start in April their first-ever joint search for remains of soldiers killed during the Korean War.
Moon would like to push ahead with his more ambitious plans for engagement, such as reconnecting railways and roads across the border and normalizing operations at a jointly run factory park. However, those plans would violate the existing UN sanctions.
Moon Jae-in has made it clear that he is extremely anxious to normalize relations with the North, with the eventual goal of reunification, and that he's willing to concede almost anything to the North to accomplish this. This is true even though the North has never repudiated its plan to conquer the South by force, and reunify the two Koreas under control of the North. North Korea has an unbroken record of lying and deception about almost everything, and removing the guard posts may be a goodwill gesture to the South, but it also makes it easier for the North's million-man army to cross into the South, and that's what the North wants.
The North-South negotiation track may be separate from the denuclearization negotiations, but they do affect one another. With North Korea now playing hardball in the denuclearization negotiations, which are completely stalled anyway, South Korean analysts now believe that a planned trip by Kim Jong-un to Seoul in December is becoming increasingly less likely.
According to one South Korean analyst:
"South Korea will continue to try to make room for the US and North Korea to continue negotiations and ease tensions between the countries through Kim Jong-un’s visit to Seoul.But for Kim, visiting Seoul without any progress in the US-North Korea relations could be a burden because it would likely draw more opposition from South Korea’s conservatives and more skepticism from the US. I think Kim will decide on his visit to Seoul after the high-level meeting between Pompeo and Kim."
Assuming, or course, that the latter meeting takes place.
However, another South Korean analyst said that there's another way to convince Kim to make his promised visit to Seoul: "I think North Korea would want to come to Seoul on the back of some progress in its relations with the US so that it could gain economic rewards -- economic assistance, for example -- from South Korea." Korea Herald and AP and Russia Today and Korea Herald
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Nov-2018)
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Israel and Qatar agree to a sea route between Gaza and Cyprus
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Thursday, three suitcases stuffed with $15 million in cash traveled in the back seat of a car from Israel to Gaza through the Erez crossing. This money is being distributed to Gazans, under an agreement between Qatar, Israel and Gaza, mediated by Egypt.
The money was supplied by Qatar, which is taking an increasing role in trying to make Gaza more "livable" for the people, in the hope of reducing the weekly protests.
Many employees working for Hamas in Gaza haven't been paid salaries in months, because the money for paying the salaries hasn't been made available to Hamas. It isn't Israel that made the decision to withhold the money. It was the Palestinian Authority (Fatah), headed by Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas is supposed to be the head a unity government of all Palestinians, and Abbas has cut off money to pay the salaries of Gazans working for Hamas. Israel has supported Abbas's decision, out of concern that Hamas would use the salary money to fund terrorist activities.
So Egypt's mediation has led to an agreement where Qatar provides the money to pay the salaries of Hamas employees. The $15 million that arrived on Thursday is the first installment of a $90 million total payout. 27,000 civil servants will receive 50% of a month's salary, with the amount to gradually increase over the months.
The money is not being given to the United Nations or to Hamas. Instead, civil servants' salaries are being paid individually, under the supervision of the Qataris.
Israel has not commented on the payments, but must have approved them because otherwise the three suitcases of money could not have crossed into Gaza.
However, the Palestinian Authority said that the $15 million was "cheap price that Hamas received for the precious blood" of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and that "Hamas leaders are prepared to align themselves with the devil in order to remain in power and undermine the Palestinian national project." Jerusalem Post and Reuters and Jerusalem Post and Middle East Eye and Jerusalem Post
Israel and Qatar have reached agreement on the establishment of a seaport in Cyprus, under Israeli security supervision, that will be used to ship goods to Gaza.
There is a dispute over how security will be implemented. Israel has demanded that its representatives be present at the seaport for manual inspection of goods entering Gaza to make sure that there are no weapons. However, Hamas is demanding that inspections take place only electronically.
That Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas is completely opposed to the plan, saying Hamas was not authorized to reach any agreement on such matters with international parties, and warning that such a move would “consolidate” the split between the Gaza Strip and West Bank, and make Gaza a separate Palestinian state in the Hamas-ruled coastal enclave.
Qatar is also working on a number of other proposals to make Gaza more livable, including expanding fishing, establishing industrial zones, and reliable electricity.
It's hoped that by making Gaza more livable, the weekly "March of Return" protests, of Gazans trying to break through the fence into Israel and demanding to return to their ancestral homes, will be reduced. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this hope is delusional. The protests are being driven by young people just coming of age, and no agreement by their geezer leaders will change that. YNet (Israel) and Jerusalem Post and Israel National News
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Nov-18 World View -- Qatar provides $15 million in aid to Gaza, will mediate electricity issues and Cyprus seaport thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Nov-2018)
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Sri Lanka constitutional crisis grows as president dissolves parliament
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There are major individual government crises in progress in both the Maldives and Sri Lanka, and they are linked by China's interference in the affairs of both countries by using "debt trap diplomacy" related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Sri Lanka's president Maithripala Sirisena dissolved parliament on Friday, after his administration promised that he wouldn't do that. Sirisena fired prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 26, and appointed a new prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Sirisena wanted the parliament to confirm his actions, but after it became clear that he wouldn't have the votes, he dissolved parliament to prevent a vote.
An interesting angle is that the Tamil MPs specifically refused Sirisena's request that they abstain from the vote. The ethnic Hindu Tamil minority community was defeated in a generational crisis civil war that climaxed in 2009, with Rajapaksa leading the ethnic Buddhist Sinhalese majority to victory, amid charges of war crimes.
So rather than allow a vote, Sirisena dissolved the parliament and called for snap elections in January. Sirisena's opponents are saying that both the decision to fire the prime minister and the decision to dissolve the parliament are unconstitutional. So the constitutional crisis and government gridlock is expected to continue into the new year.
Sirisena has never given any explanation for why he fired his prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. It's now emerged that Sirisena were in sharp disagreement over whether a seaport project in the country capital Colombo should be awarded to a Chinese firm, favored by Sirisena, or an Indian firm, favored by Wickremesinghe. Wickremesinghe was fired just after that loud disagreement, and Rajapaksa was appointed.
Rajapaksa has always had close relations with China. When Rajapaksa was president, he signed the agreement with China to build the Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap" deal, putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the seaport over to China.
Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid back. Still, because of Sri Lanka's strategic importance, both India and China want to be build the new infrastructure projects. The constitutional crisis may appear to be a domestic matter, but it has important geopolitical implication. Times of Sri Lanka and Reuters and Channel News Asia
|
At the time I wrote about the September 23 Maldives election, it seemed the country could be headed for its own constitutional crisis. The country was in something of a state of shock because the incumbent president Abdulla Yameen, who had never hesitated to use vote-rigging or jailings or violence to win elections, had been expected to win. Instead, his opponent, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, won decisively, by 58-41% of the vote.
It was suspected that Yameen could not step down, since a new administration would discover massive corruption in Yameen's dealings with China. China had arranged for a "debt trap" for Maldives, and Yameen's family was heavily involved in China's infrastructure projects in the five years Yameen was in power. As usual, the contractual specifics between the Maldives and China were completely secret. In other countries where situations like this have occurred, the leader and his family are often so heavily involved in bribery and corruption that they dare not lose power.
So it was feared that Yameen would use whatever tactics and power he could to overturn the election, but it seems that he was unable to do so because Solih's win was so huge.
The first thing Solih did after winning the election was to meet with with the Chinese ambassador, where he learned that the Maldives owed the Chinese $3 billion, not the $1.5 billion he had previously been told. That’s more revenue than Maldives' government raises in two years – a staggering figure that makes the Maldives a prime example of how Chinese loans have swamped smaller economies with loans that can't be repaid.
Details of the debt – and how much might have been stolen – will only begin to emerge after Solih takes office on November 17 and his aides gain complete access to documents Yameen’s government hid from lawmakers and the public. But information already collected by Solih’s transition team indicates the liabilities are greater than initially believed and will soon outpace the country's ability to pay.
It's amazing how China has gotten away with "debt trap diplomacy" in country after country. They loan a country to build infrastructure proects that will strategically benefit China and only marginally benefit the local population. The require that the loan money be used to purchase parts and services from Chinese firms, and that almost all workers must be Chinese. So instead of benefiting the local factories and workers, the money goes back to China to benefit factories and people there. And then the country still has to repay the loan, which means that they're repaying the loan twice.
At this point, China's "debt trap diplomacy" has gotten so much publicity that many countries are now cutting back on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. Both Malaysia and Pakistan have recently cut back or cancelled BRI projects. The latest is Sierra Leone, which has accumulated more than $220 million in Chinese debt, and last month canceled a new airport project with Chinese labor and loans.
In the Maldives, Solih has promised to examine all contracts and leases to see which should be cut back or modified. Because the Maldives and Sri Lanka are both so strategically important and are both in the Indian Ocean just off the southern tip of India, both India and China have similar interests in South China Morning Post and National Herald India and Reuters (11-Oct) and Standard Times Press (Sierra Leone)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Nov-18 World View -- China and India compete for influence in Sri Lanka and Maldives constitutional crises thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Nov-2018)
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Number of migrants leaving Venezuela reaches three million
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Socialist poster child, Venezuela, is facing increasing crises, as the country continues to crumble. Socialism has been a disaster every time it's been tried, whether it's been abandoned, as in North Korea, Sweden, Russia, China, Cuba, or East Germany, or where it's led to total financial disaster, as in North Korea.
In Venezuela, the refugee crisis and the economic crisis continue to reach fresh levels, while the overweight Socialist president, Nicolás Maduro, who stuffs himself while his people starve to death, shows no hint of wanting abandon the disaster.
On Thursday, Venezuela's year on year inflation rate was 833,997%. The International Monetary Fund predicted several months ago that Venezuela's inflation rate would reach one million percent by the end of the year, and Maduro is on track for reaching that goal. The IMF predicted that the inflation rate would exceed 10 million percent by the end of 2019, and there's nothing to stop that from happening unless Maduro is stopped.
Maduro, along with his predecessor Hugo Chávez, have implemented a perfectly functioning Socialist economy, with nationalized industries, price controls, a high minimum wage, and punishment for anyone making money. As in all perfectly functioning Socialist economies, there are shortages of food, medicines, toilet paper, and other basic goods.
What's truly amazing and even record-setting is that Venezuela should be the richest country in Latin America with the largest oil reserves in the world, and yet faces a shortage of gasoline of 80%.
Venezuela has 18 refineries throughout the world and six in national territory, but many of the refineries are in disrepair, and even when they're working, they have no oil to refine. One of the main refineries, Amuay, is operating at just 5.4% of production capacity.
Instead, what oil is available is sent to Cuba or China. According to one worker representative, oil is being sent to China rather than being refined:
"There was an order from Nicolás Maduro to the Minister of Petroleum, Manuel Quevedo, to send one million barrels of oil to China. They stopped the refineries and loaded the barrels. It is even more the amount that they send to Cuba."
Since the beginning of the year, Maduro has sent over 11 million barrels of oil to Cuba. Just between June and August, Maduro sent 4.19 million barrels, worth $248 million. If I understand this correctly, it means that Cuba is now bailing out Venezuela, just as Venezuela used to bail out Cuba.
It's noteworthy that while both Cuba and China call themselves Socialist countries for public relations purposed, both countries have largely given up Socialism and have opened up their markets. For these countries, Socialism has simply turned into a religion. That's why these countries are able to make money, which Venezuela is not. Reuters and Today Venezuela and Guardian (London)
According to the United Nations, the number of migrants fleeing Venezuela's Socialist poverty and violance has now surpassed three million. Of the three million, 2.3 million have left Venezuela since 2015, and the number keeps increasing, with 3,000 new arrivals into Colombia every day.
More than one million refugees and migrants are in Colombia. Peru has more than half a million, Ecuador over 220,000, Argentina 130,000, Chile over 100,000 and Brazil 85,000, according to the UN.
One priest in Colombia took a swipe at America: "People go crazy over the caravan of Central Americans entering Mexico, trying to reach the US. That's four, five, maybe 6,000 migrants, that's how many we get every four days."
The rate of migration has sped up in the past six months. The new figures show that about one in 12 of the population has now left the country, driven by violence, hyperinflation and shortages of food and medicines. Al Jazeera and Guardian (London)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Nov-18 World View -- Venezuela's refugees crisis soars, as economic disaster reaches new levels thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(9-Nov-2018)
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Yemen war violence intensifies as 30-day ceasefire deadline approaches
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On October 31, Secretary of Defense James Mattis called for a ceasefire in the Yemen war in 30 days, or by the end of November. A first step would require Iran to stop supplying missiles to the insurgent Houthis:
"[T]alk about demilitarizing the border so that the Saudis and the [United Arab] Emirates do not have to worry about missiles coming into their homes and cities and airports. [A cease-fire arrangement should] ensure that all the missiles that Iran has provided to the Houthis are put under international watch in parks somewhere, where they can be kept accounted for."
Unfortunately, that's already delusional. Iran would never agree to that condition, or if it agreed, it wouldn't honor the commitment. In fact, Iran already claims that it doesn't supply missiles to the Houthis, so Iran could agree to this condition and then just keep doing what it's doing.
Next, Mattis said:
"[Such a truce would help] set the conditions for [Yemeni factions to] return to traditional areas inside Yemen, and a government that allows for this amount of local autonomy that the Houthis or that southerners want."
Once again, this is delusional. The traditional are for the Houthis is northwest Yemen, far outside the capital city Sanaa.
"The longer-term solution, and by longer-term, I mean 30 days from now, we want to see everybody sitting around the table, based on a cease-fire, based on a pullback from the border, and then based on ceasing dropping of bombs, that will permit the [U.N.] special envoy—Martin Griffiths, who's very good, he knows what he's doing—to get them together in Sweden and end this war.It’s time to stop [the Yemen war]. And right now, what the Iranians have done by bringing in anti-ship missiles ... it’s interrupted freedom of navigation, they are the ones who keep fueling this conflict and they need to knock it off."
This is all fantasy. None of this is going to happen. But what's interesting is that pretty much the opposite has happened.
Fearing that US support for the war might end in 30 days, Saudi Arabia has redoubled its attacks on Yemen's al-Hodeidah seaport. Two hundred air strikes were reported in and around Hodeidah on Saturday alone. Artillery shells had also hit residential areas and temporary roadblocks had prevented people from leaving or entering the city overnight, in effect trapping them in an active conflict zone, it added.
The UN says Yemen is on the brink of the world's worst famine in 100 years. The assault on the al-Hodeidah seaport has blocked humanitarian aid, including food and medicines, from reaching much of Yemen, with the danger of a worsening humanitarian crisis. US Institute for Peace and Arab News and BBC and CNN
With so many people being killed in so many ways every day, it's somewhat startling to see that one particular murder, that of Washington Post columnist and Saudi national Jamal Khashoggi by other Saudi Nationals in Istanbul on October 2, has been the cause of so much international chaos.
There are three reasons for this, in my opinion. First, the murder was particularly gruesome, ordered by the highest officials in the Saudi government, and the body has not yet been produced. Second, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been dribbling out the facts of the case, so that every day there's a new revelation to embarrass the Saudi government. And third, the al-Jazeera news network, based in and funded by the government of Qatar, which has become Saudi Arabia's mortal enemy, is doing everything possible to keep the story alive, with lengthy coverage of the latest in every newscast.
The Khashoggi murder has also had geopolitical consequences. As I recently reported, Pakistan's new prime minister Imran Khan was able to use the Khashoggi scandal as leverage to convince Saudi Arabia to provide $6 billion in aid.
It now appears that the Khashoggi murder is also changing the direction of the Yemen war. The murder has strengthened the hand of activists in the UK and Washington who want Saudi Arabia to end the Yemen war. The statement by Secretary of Defense James Mattis, excerpted above, was an outcome of the Khashoggi murder.
The Yemen war has been a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Despite repeated promises that the war would end quickly, the Saudis are completely bogged in a seemingly never-ending war. They would love for Mattis' recommendations to succeed, but in the end that would hand Yemen over to the Iranians, and they can't agree to that.
However, we're already seeing unintended consequences, specifically Saudi Arabia doubling down on the violent assault on Hodeidah. The proposal by Mattis was a ceasefire by all parties, including Iran, the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE), and then have a peace conference in Geneva. That was never going to happen or, if it did, it would have resulted in a "peace process" with no commitments honored by the parties. History shows that this kind of peace process will not work.
Khashoggi's murder has led to Mattis' statement, which has led to a massive increase in the violence in the Hodeidah attack. The Saudis want to bring the Houthis to their knees, and force a negotiated truce under terms favorable to the Saudis. History shows that this kind of attack will not work either. This kind of attack only works when it is at the climax of a generational crisis war, and then only when all the parties are so war-weary and exhausted that they'll agree to end the war. The Yemen war is nowhere near a climax. Saudi Gazette and Foreign Policy and New Yorker and Al-Jazeera
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Nov-18 World View -- The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(8-Nov-2018)
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Over 10,000 people displaced by new fighting in Central African Republic civil war
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Last week, the town of Batangafo in northern Central African Republic (CAR) was attacked by militias in the ongoing generational crisis civil war. Armed groups looted and burned thousands of homes, three camps hosting 27,000 displaced and a market in the city. Some 10,000 are seeking refuge in a hospital in Batangafo run by Doctors Without Borders Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF). At the same time, the town of Bambari in central CAR was attacked. Dozens of people were wounded or killed, or had to be treated for burns.
The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013 by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until January 2014.
After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Séléka militias began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013, French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Séléka militias.
The actions of the French troops backfired. When the Muslim Séléka troops were disarmed, the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against the Sélékas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been displaced.
Since 2013, there's been a delusional struggle, led by the United Nations Security Council, to use "peacekeepers" to bring the fighting to an end. The idea that "peacekeepers" can stop the progress of a generational crisis war is absurd beyond belief.
In 2015, there was even a visit by Pope Francis to CAR's capital city Bangui to propose "a renewed attention to the idea of a respectful urban integration, as opposed to elimination, paternalism, indifference or mere containment." ( "28-Nov-15 World View -- Pope Francis to visit Central African Republic in middle of civil war")
Well, I'm not sure that a visit by a Pope ever ended any war. A generational crisis war only ends when everybody is completely exhausted, and then only with an "explosive climax," usually an act of genocide that's so horrific that both sides agree to end the war, and vow never to allow anything like that to happen again. The war in CAR is nowhere near such an explosive climax.
Jonathan Allen, UK's UN ambassador, recently said the following at a UN Security Council meeting:
"Civilians, peacekeepers, and humanitarian workers continue to be attacked. More than one in four Central Africans remain displaced; half of the population are in desperate need of humanitarian assistance. Only 36% of the 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan has been funded. We encourage all member states to help fill this gap. The UK has provided £63 million – or $81 million – in humanitarian aid to CAR since 2015. We believe that this aid supports progress towards a stable, secure, and peaceful CAR – something that remains in all of our interests."
No it won't. Any aid money to try and stop this generational crisis war is just money down the drain.
From the point of Generational Dynamics, CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, with a new crisis war in progress.
This war was triggered by a religious fault line between Muslims and Christians, but it's actually an ethnic war between cattle herders, such as ethnic Fulani, versus farmers, such as ethnic Gula and Runga. As I've described many times in Central African Republic, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s, is that in country after country, there a classic and recurring battle between herders and farmers. The farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down. ReliefWeb (1-Nov) and Médecins Sans Frontières and Reuters and UK Government
In July, three internationally known reporters and war correspondents were gunned down and killed in Central African Republic after their car was ambushed.
The three were making a documentary film for TsUR, an investigative media center funded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a Russian oligarch. In 2003, Khodorkovsky announced he would run against Vladimir Putin for president. Putin destroyed Khodorkovsky, and had him jailed for life, only letting him out in 2013 in a "humanitarian gesture" before the Sochi Olympics.
The topic of the documentary film was the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), a mercenary group, sometimes known as "Putin's personal army" that Putin uses for "dirty work" when he needs deniability, most recently in Ukraine and Syria. In the West, Wagner is believed responsible for the deaths of the three journalists, while Russia's foreign ministry denies the connection.
Historically, peacekeeping efforts in CAR were led by France, which had been the colonial power in the past. But in the past year, Russia has been actively working to expand its influence in CAR, supplying hundreds of weapons to the CAR army along with 175 civilian and military instructors.
Suspicions have raised that Russians are less interested in peacekeeping, and more interested in cutting deals with rebels and deploying Wagner mercenaries to guard the extraction of gold, diamonds and uranium. There had been a previous announcement that Russia and CAR had agreed on joint "exploratory mining concessions."
France's defence minister Florence Parly said last week:
"Russia has asserted its presence in the Central African Republic in recent months, it is true, but I am not sure that this presence and the actions deployed by Moscow, like the agreements negotiated in Khartoum at the end of August, help to stabilize the country."
However, Russia's foreign ministry had defended its actions against what it said was "a certain jealousy" by other foreign powers over Russia's role in CAR. Telegraph (London, 31-Jul) and Africa News and Reuters (17-Oct) and Telegraph (London)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(7-Nov-2018)
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Questions raised about planned China military naval base in Jiwani
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The separatist terror group Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed credit for killing on October 31 five men working for a construction company building 70 housing developments. The housing will be populated by thousands of Chinese workers who will be working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The housing developments are on the road connecting Gwardar port to the town of Jiwani.
According to Azad Baloch, a BLA spokesman:
"The site attacked today was part of the CPEC project. ...Today's attack is a clear message to China and all other countries that Balochistan is an occupied territory. We warn China to halt working on all the projects including a planned naval base in Jiwani, Balochistan. The BLA will continue to resist against the occupation of Baloch Ocean and coastal belt. ...
China and Pakistan are settling Punjabis and Chinese in Gwadar and other areas of Balochistan's coastal belt to turn the Baloch into a minority under their expansionist designs.
If the international community fails to fulfil their responsibilities and turn a blind eye to the Pakistani and Chinese colonization of Balochistan, then the Baloch nation will have no other option but to target all non-Baloch settlers in Balochistan."
This was only the latest in a series of BLA attacks on CPEC targets in Balochistan. On October 26, the BLA conducted a joint operation with another separatist group, the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), and killed two Pakistani paramilitary soldiers in a coordinated attack on a senior officer's convoy. In September, there were seven terrorist attacks in Balochistan. In August, the BLA claimed credit for a suicide bombing attack on a bus transporting Chinese workers, injuring three.
After the August suicide bombing, Chinese companies hired more security personnel to protect Chinese workers. However, the targets of the most recent terror attacks were not Chinese, and not Baloch. Furthermore, they were not killed with a suicide bombing. Instead, they were killed when unidentified motorcyclists opened fire at them and fled. Also, they were from other provinces in Pakistan. The BLA is insisting that with unemployment and poverty so high among Baloch people, Baloch workers should be doing the CPEC development, rather Chinese workers or workers from Punjab.
However, a Chinese investment firm has already announced a project to build homes for 500,000 Chinese professionals in Gwadar by 2023. Dawn and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Al Jazeera and Express Tribune (Pakistan, 11-Oct) and The News (Pakistan, 21-Oct-2017)
CPEC is a $55-60 billion 20-year project that will supposedly build a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese investment, supplies and interests.
China has always insisted that Gwadar will be a purely commercial port, with no military purpose at all. As usual, we seem to be facing the usual deception, double-talk, and lying from the Chinese.
Recall that in 2015, China's president Xi Jinping and said that his country had "no intention to militarize" the South China Sea, and that they would be tourist attractions. It was just as much a lie as when Hitler promised "peace in our time" as he was planning to invade Britain. Today, the Chinese military has turned them into bases, bristling with radar domes, shelters for missiles, warplane runways, and other heavy military equipment. No tourists are welcome.
In January of this year, there were reports that Gwadar would become a Chinese military naval base. China denied the report, but an article in the South China Morning Post reported that the military base would not be in Gwadar itself, but nearby on the Jiwani Peninsula. The article quoted a Beijing-based military analyst who said:
"China needs to set up another base in Gwadar for its warships because Gwadar is now a civilian port.It’s a common practice to have separate facilities for warships and merchant vessels because of their different operations. Merchant ships need a bigger port with a lot of space for warehouses and containers, but warships need a full range of maintenance and logistical support services."
At a Beijing forum last week, Javaid Iqbal, Navy Secretary of the Pakistan Navy was asked whether Gwadar is the location of a future Chinese military base. He evaded the question by restricting his answer to Gwadar port: "Let me emphasize that the Gwadar port is purely a commercial venture and has no military overtones. The Gwadar port has no military dimension. It will be just a commercial port." So, no mention of a base in nearby Jiwani. Aren't these people wonderful? Diplomat (9-Feb) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 5-Jan) and Reuters (26-Oct) and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS/AMTI)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claims credit for killing CPEC workers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(6-Nov-2018)
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Disarmament proceeds along North-South Korea border, opposed by US
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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US and South Korea marine forces will begin on Monday joint military marine drills around the southeastern port city of Pohang on Monday. It will involve 500 troops from the South Korean Marine Corps and the U.S. III Marine Expeditionary Force stationed in Okinawa. South Korea announced that it will decide next month whether to suspend next year's exercises.
Early in January of this year, at the time that North Korea was beginning its "charm offensive" and talking about participating in the Olympics games in Seoul, North Korea demanded that US-South Korea military drills be postponed until after the Olympics. The military drills have been performed for years, and they have always infuriated both the North Koreans and the Chinese. So, the US and South Korea acceded to the North Korean demand to postpone the drills until after March 18, when the Olympics and Paralympics games finally end.
However, the charm offensive continued, with numerous negotiating sessions involving North Korea, South Korea, and the United States, including personal meetings between the national leaders. North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un repeatedly insisted that he would fully "denuclearize." North Korea has even destroyed a nuclear testing facility that it doesn't need or use to "prove" it was sincere.
Many analysts, including myself, believe that North Korea has no intention to denuclearize, and that the purpose of the "charm offensive" is to apply political pressure to the United States to agree to and the sanctions with having to make any denuclearization concessions. I also believe that if Kim Jong-un tried to actually denuclearize, then he would be shot dead by his own generals.
North Korea has taken no real steps towards denuclearization, even refusing to take the simple step of providing a list of all its nuclear development sites. No reason was given by the US military why it is resuming the limited military drills, but it may be a warning to North Korea after 11 months of charm offensive that nothing has been accomplished.
Kim Jong-un appears to be replaying the same fraudulent script that his father Kim Jong-il followed in 2008. At that time, the North demolished a 60-foot-tall cooling tower to prove that it was ending its nuclear development programs. In reaction, the Bush administration agreed to remove all sanctions. As soon as they were removed, North Korea immediately and openly resumed its nuclear and ballistic missile development. They had completely defrauded the United States and the world.
On Friday, North Korea issued a statement threatening to resume nuclear development unless the sanctions are lifted. Specifically, the statement threatened to resume North Korea's "pyongjin" policy of simultaneously advancing its nuclear force and economic development.
Some analysts claim that North Korea has already won. A year ago, the US was threatening military action to halt North Korea's nuclear and missile development. Now, thanks to the charm offensive, the North had a year to continue nuclear and missile development in secret, lacking on the ability to openly test their development with hydrogen bomb tests and long-range ballistic missile tests. North Korea is believed to have an arsenal of ballistic missiles ready to be launched at the US or other targets, and at a time of its choosing it can simply start openly testing again.
The charm offensive will continue later this week, when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet with North Korean officials to discuss the next halluncinatory steps in the denuclearization process. Pompeo's last meeting didn't accomplish anything. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters and AP
For several months, there has been a separate "peace process" going on in Korea, not well publicized outside.
South Korea's president Moon Jae-in has had several well-publicized meetings with Kim Jong-un, and they've agreed to disarm the demilitarized zone (DMZ) border that separates North and South Korea.
Two weeks ago, the two Koreas announced that firearms and military posts have been withdrawn from a portion of the DMZ, turning the "truce village" of Panmunjom into a "peace village."
This was done quickly, after Moon and Kim agreed to it, and it was the first step in fulfilling the far-reaching agreement of disarming the DMZ, removing land mines, declaring a no-fly zone over a huge region near the border, and eventually removing the 25,000 American troops stationed nearby.
There's no shortage of people calling this a super-wonderful first step on the road to peaceful reunification of North and South Korea.
However, the US State Dept. is opposing these steps. The North Koreans have never repudiated their oft-stated intention of invading South Korea and taking control. Demilitarizing the DMZ has a second purpose -- removing some of the major obstacles to a North Korean invasion of South Korea. North Korea could send its 1.1 million man army across the border into Seoul, wiping out the 23,000 American soldiers stationed there.
The US State Dept. is particularly objecting to the agreement to impose a no-fly zone over the border, because it would effectively prevent close air support drills. The agreement also bars live-fire drills involving fixed-wing aircraft and air-to-ground guided weapons in the no-fly area.
If you step back and look at the entire year, Kim Jong-un seems to be winning on every point. There's widespread cheating by the Chinese and Russians over the sanctions. North Korea has been free to continue nuclear development and ballistic missile development, with no restriction except open testing. And the DMZ is being demilitarized, leaving Seoul open to invasion by the North at a time of its choosing.
All of this seems pretty obvious to a lot of people. The only question is: Why is Moon Jae-in facilitating it? Yonhap News (Seoul) and Stars and Stripes and Reuters (18-Oct) and Korea Herald (19-Sep)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Nov-18 World View -- US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Nov-2018)
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Questions about Mohammed's covenant with Christians and Christianity
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Three days after Pakistan's Supreme Court freed Asia Bibi on blasphamy charges, the government has signed a 5-point agreement with the Barelvi sect / Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) terrorists completely capitulating to the demands of the terrorists. The TLP had mobilized massive protests across the country, blocking roads in and out of big cities, and had threatened to kill the three Supreme Court judges who had written the opinion freeing Asia. Even Pakistani media and politicians were alarmed at the extent of the government capitulation, and wondered whether the government would survive.
Here's the five-point agreement:
"1. A review petition has been filed in the Aasia Bibi case, which is the right of the petitioners. The government will raise no objections over the review petition.2. Due process will be followed immediately to include the name of Aasia Bibi in the Exit Control List (ECL).
3. Immediate legal action will be taken over the martyrdom of any individuals during the protest campaign against the acquittal of Aasia Bibi.
4. All those arrested on October 30 or afterwards in the protest campaign against Aasia Bibi's acquittal will be released immediately.
5. The TLP apologizes to anybody whose sentiments have been unnecessarily hurt during the incident."
The reference to the "Exit Control List (ECL)" means that Asia's name will be placed on the airline list that prevents someone from leaving the country. The UK had sent a plane to take Asia to Europe, but it had to leave without her. Asia is said to be in protective custody somewhere.
A number of people had been arrested during the three days of massive demonstration for destroying property and causing violence, and the agreement says that they will be freed.
The only concession made by the terrorists is that they apologize for hurting people's feelings.
A lot of people are now wondering whether Pakistan is ruled by Islamist terrorists. The new president Imran Khan initially said the following:
"I say to these people: do not confront this state ... do not damage this country for your vote bank. If you do this, I promise that the government will do its duty … I ask you: do not force the government to have to take action."
Khan did take action the next day -- total capitulation.
A lot of people congratulated the Supreme Court for its bravery in acquitting Asia, but are now wondering why Asia was not acquitted by a lower court long before this. One analyst answers as follows:
"People ask a question as to why Sessions Court and Lahore High Court convicted her for blasphemy and endorsed death penalty. There are mainly two reasons. First, it is obvious that death threats from the extremists who use Islam for their political gains that might have forced the judges; you have see the chaos by now, for which most judges were afraid of. Secondly, the judges of lower courts were not that courageous to take the risks of their lives for justice."
The following analogy might provide clarification. Imagine a high-level official in America saying that marriage should only be between a man and a woman. There would be screaming, hysterical mobs harassing him in restaurants, threatening him, and demanding his resignation. The same thing is happening in Pakistan today with respect to blasphemy. The News (Pakistan) and Deutsche Welle and The Nation (Pakistan) and Dunya News (Pakistan)
It's not surprising that the TLP were absolutely furious about the Supreme Court ruling, which I described three days ago. It was a scathing opinion not only that Asia was not a blasphemer, but that her accusers and, by implication, the Barelvi/TTP terrorists were themselves blasphemers, because they had blasphemed Asia's Christian belief, which Mohammed had ordered all Muslims to protect in a covenant.
Several people asked for more information about this covenant, and whether it actually exists. The text of the covenant appears in the court opinion that I quoted in my previous article, and is repeated here:
"This is a message from Muhammad ibn Abdullah, as a covenant to those who adopt Christianity, near and far, we are with them. Verily I, the servants, the helpers, and my followers defend them, because Christians are my citizens; and by God! I hold out against anything that displeases them. No compulsion is to be on them. Neither are their judges to be removed from their jobs nor their monks from their monasteries. No one is to destroy a house of their religion, to damage it, or to carry anything from it to the Muslims’ houses. Should anyone take any of these, he would spoil God’s covenant and disobey His Prophet. Verily, they are my allies and have my secure charter against all that they hate. No one is to force them to travel or to oblige them to fight. The Muslims are to fight for them. If a female Christian is married to a Muslim, it is not to take place without her approval. She is not to be prevented from visiting her church to pray. Their churches are to be respected. They are neither to be prevented from repairing them nor the sacredness of their covenants. No one of the nation (Muslims) is to disobey the covenant till the Last Day (end of the world)."
Possibly the best way to understand this covenant is to consider the phrase, "Verily, they are my allies." The word "allies" is used in a literal sense. The document was signed in 628 AD, when Mohammed was in the middle of a generational crisis war between his own Hashim clan versus the Umayyad clan in Mecca. Mohammed had nothing against the Christians and had no reason to fight them, so he promised to protect them.
Over the centuries, Muslim nations have continued to protect Christians living among them, choosing to tax them rather than kill them. So Mohammed's covenant has been followed for 1400 years.
Even today, Muslim jihadists are not killing Christians except for public relations purposes in high profile terrorist attacks. The number of Christians being killed is minuscule, compared to the number of Muslims being killed. More Christians are being killed in traffic accidents than by Muslim jihadists.
A lot of this was discussed in my book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East.
For the most part, it's Muslims who kill Muslims (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc.), and it's Christians who kill Christians -- Nazis vs Russians, French and British, Hutus vs Tutsis, Russians vs Ukrainians and Georgians, etc. Most of the time, that's the way the world works. Islamic Supreme Council
John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan government capitulates to Barelvi/TLP terrorists, doesn't free Asia Bibi thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(4-Nov-2018)
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Officials of Nauru infuriated by the contemptuous remarks by NGOs and politicians
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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As a result of Federal Court orders, the Australian government is in the process of moving all migrant children and their families from Nauru immigration camps to Australian cities and towns. Fifty minors and their families have come to Australia since October 15, for a total of 135 people, and the remaining 35 minors are expected to be transferred by Christmas.
Since August 3, 2013, when the government of Australia signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the government of the Republic of Nauru, refugees and asylum seekers arriving by boat without a visa would be sent either to Nauru or to Manus Island in Papua New Guinea (PNG), and would have "no chance" of being resettled in Australia as refugees.
The decision to send "boat people" to the offshore islands has been extremely controversial, both domestically and internationally, as NGOs claim that the offshore islands are filthy and unsafe. Despite the objections from activists, the policy has been extremely successful in meeting its objectives. While there had previously been tens of thousands of "boat people" per year arriving in Australia, that number has been reduced to almost none, because refugees know that they will be transferred to one of the offshore detention centers. Australian officials claim that thousands of refugees' lives have been saved, since they didn't attempt the risky boat trip with human traffickers.
Activists have been using the courts and political pressure to force the government to bring all refugees on the islands to be resettled in Australia. Different government officials since 2013 have all refused, saying that any such move would trigger a new flood of boat people from Indonesia.
New Zealand has volunteered to take 150 refugees from Nauru and PNG and resettle them. However, Home Secretary Peter Dutton has rejected this offer because intelligence surveillance of smuggling operations had detected “increased chatter” and “talk about elections and change of government here," according to Dutton. "My judgment at the moment, based on all of the advice available to me, is New Zealand would be a pull factor at this point in time." The phrase "pull factor" refers to a possible resurgence of boat people.
However, prime minister Scott Morrison said that he'd only consider the New Zealand offer if legislation were passed that would prevent the refugees from simply leaving New Zealand and coming back to Australia.
Dutton says that the government remains committed to never resettle the refugees in Australia, meaning that they will be deported to their countries of origin after hospital treatment.
As a separate issue, the Obama administration in 2016 agreed to accept up to 1,250 refugees from Nauru and Papua New Guinea. ( "6-Feb-17 World View -- Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever'")
But after more than a year of screening, only 439 have found new homes in the U.S., and dozens more have rejected the offer to resettle in the United States. According to an NGO, these were mostly people who had family in Australia and were concerned about being separated from them permanently. Sydney Morning Herald and CBS News and Guardian (London) and Australia Government (3-Aug-2013)
Australia's prime minister Scott Morrison is warning NGOs and politicians to stop being offensive to Nauru: "For those Nauruans who live there, I do know that they get frankly a bit offended about the way people talk about their home." Some NGOs have called it an "open air prison."
According to Morrison, all the refugee children on Nauru are living freely in the community just like the locals, and that the island nation should not be disrespected:
"That is the home of Nauruans - their children live there, their families live there, they go to school there. We should be tempered in our discussion about the nation of Nauru and I think we should treat them with respect."
Former prime minister Tony Abbott said, "If you like living in the tropics it's a very, very pleasant island."
According to the Australian government, 65 medical professionals, including 33 mental health workers, are contracted to serve the refugees on Nauru. According to Abbott, health services are better there than in some parts of regional Australia.
However, these statements are in contrast to warnings by NGOs, the United Nations, and the Australian Medical Association about the appalling state of mental health among young refugees. It was these claims that led to the court order to transfer children to Australia.
The issue is becoming increasingly explosive. A month ago, the government of Nauru expelled the NGO Doctors Without Borders Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF) which had been providing free mental health care on Nauru. According to Nauru, MSF had originally committed to providing health services for the entire population of 13,000 Nauruans, but instead focused on the refugees to further political advocacy.
According to a statement put out by the Nauru government:
"For too long, some sections of the media, refugee advocates and some NGOs, have focused only on refugees in Nauru and referred to Nauruans with disdain.Refugees and locals live side by side as part of a homogenous multicultural community. Calls for refugee children to be removed from our country ignore the fact that Nauruan children grow up here happy, healthy and educated within strong family units. Refugee and asylum seeker children attend school and activities with Nauruan children creating friendships and familial bonds. It is disturbing and concerning that advocates and organizations with political agendas prey on the vulnerable and innocent to progress their agendas. ...
The statements made by MSF expose their ruse. It has become very clear that they were never here to help Nauruans as was their initial representation to Government to gain entry into Nauru. They were here as political activists and it was self-evident from the statement made by MSF representatives referring to our sovereign nation, which is our beloved home, as an “open air prison”. This was least expected from an organization proclaiming to be an international humanitarian organization. Nauru has opened its home to refugees awaiting resettlement options. MSF must not define our home as a prison. It speaks of the organization itself."
Nauru is a tiny island, 21 sq km, in the middle of the Pacific. Inhabited for at least 3,000 years, originally by 12 Polynesian and Micronesian tribes, its nearest neighbor, Kiribati, is 300 km of empty ocean away. Nauru was a German colony in the 19th century and an Australian protectorate in the 20th, until independence in 1969, at which time it was one of the wealthiest countries in the world.
It had a massive supply of mineral phosphate. It was strip-mined by mining companies, who packed it up and sold it overseas to be used as fertilizer. Profits were placed into a trust which, at its peak, was valued at $1 billion.
But Nauru became independent in 1969, and then the politicians took over. A series of corrupt and incompetent governments wasted the money, and left the country broke and barren by the 1980s, with an unemployment rate of 70%. Since then, Australia has had to provide aid to them.
The "boat people" situation has provided an extremely controversial opportunity for both countries. For Nauru it provided a way to earn extra millions of dollars by housing the refugees. For Australia, it provided a place to send them. Australia AP and NPR and Naura Government and News.com (Australia) and Guardian (London)
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Nov-18 World View -- Australia moves migrant children from Nauru immigration camps to Australia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(3-Nov-2018)
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Trump's Iran sanctions, announced in May, scheduled for Sunday
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In May, the Trump administration withdrew America's position in the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). At that time, Trump announced that he was restoring wide-ranging sanctions on Iran's economy. He Trump gave oil buyers 180 days to wind down purchases of Iranian oil, and that the final deadline for oil purchases would be Sunday, November 4. From May to September, Iran's oil exports fell by about a third.
The Trump administration has the power to enforce the sanctions because of the way that the international banking systems are interlocked. Iran can sell oil to another country, but in order to get paid, payment sooner or later has to pass through an entity that can be sanctioned by the US for violating the Iran sanctions, or can be cut off from the US financial system altogether.
The European Union, which has expressed fury at the Trump administration for taking these actions, has been trying to set up a "special purpose vehicle" (SPV) that European countries can use to pay Iran without having to pass through a financial entity that the US can punish. The original plan was to have the SPV in place by Monday, but implementing it has turned out to be too complex so far. Furthermore, EU officials are said to want to avoid a "direct confrontation" with the Trump administration over Iran before the midterm elections on Tuesday.
The US has reportedly agreed to grant a waiver to India to permit Indian oil companies to continue importing Iranian oil for four more months, until March. The terms of the waiver are not fully clear, but India will be required to cut its imports by a third. India will make 45% of the purchase in its own rupee currency, which Iran can then use to purchase rice, drugs and other products from India. The other 55% of the payment will be made in euros, but this money will be held in escrow in India banks, until the sanctions are lifted.
There are also reports that South Korea will be granted a waiver, although the details are not known.
China and Japan are also seeking waivers, but have yet to receive them. China is Iran's biggest oil customer, but because of the US sanctions, China's biggest refiners have reportedly halted imports in November until the US provides clarity. CNBC and India Times and CNBC and AFP
When Trump withdrew from from the JCPOA in May, officials in Denmark said they were shocked and surprised by Trump's decision. Former foreign minister Holger K. Nielsen said:
"It is catastrophic for him to do this. It could have very serious consequences for the entire region. This was a way to stay Iran's nuclear ambitions while giving more moderate forces wind in their sails. It is now a concern that hardliners [in Iran] will gain power. ...That's why I am very, very concerned. If Iran resumes nuclear arms development, I fear that Israel or the US will attack Iran, and that will make the Iraq war look like a playground fight, because this would be much worse."
That was then. This is now. And now, Denmark is asking the European Union to impose additional sanctions on Iran.
On September 28, agents from Denmark's intelligence service (PET) saw an individual taking photos outside the home in Copenhagen of the leader of Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz (ASMLA). ASMLA is a separatist group demanding a separate Arab state in Iran's south-western Khuzestan Province, and is classified as a terrorist group by Iran. A previous leader of ASMLA had been shot dead in the Netherlands in November 2017, so PET was concerned that a new assassination was being planned.
By total coincidence, a Swedish-registered black Volvo started moving "suspiciously" outside the same house. When they tried to stop the car, it sped off. This triggered a major manhunt, during which a number of roads, bridges and ferry routes were shut down, including connections between Denmark and Sweden. It turned out that the three occupants of the Volvo had no relation to the ASMLA case, but that the Volvo was a stolen car. They were only caught because of the ASMLA case, making them "the world's most unlucky criminals," according to the Copenhagen police.
The man taking the pictures was a Norwegian citizen of Iranian origin. He was arrested in Norway on October 21, and extradited to Denmark. A search of his home revealed numerous photos of the residences of members of ASMLA.
Danish security officials have accused Iranian intelligence of "planning an attack on Danish soil" against Iranian Arab dissidents.
Iran's Foreign Ministry denied the country had any role in the alleged assassination plot. It said in a statement:
"This is yet another scenario in a series of conspiracies and plots by well-known Iran adversaries in an attempt to jeopardize the good and progressive Iran-EU relations at this very important and critical juncture."
Other Iranian official suggested sabotage by the US, Saudi Arabia or Israel.
Some analysts claim that hardliners in Iran's intelligence services may plan plots in Europe without the knowledge or control of Iran's government. The rogue elements may even be trying to undermine pragmatists in the Iranian government and good relations with the Europe.
This is actually believable. As I describe in my book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, Iran is one of the most corrupt governments in the world. Iran's constitution has no checks and balances, and the only way to get ahead in the government is through bribery, extortion and corruption.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that Washington stood behind Denmark, a Nato ally.
"We congratulate the government of #Denmark on its arrest of an Iranian regime assassin. For nearly 40 years, Europe has been the target of #Iran-sponsored terrorist attacks. We call on our allies and partners to confront the full range of Iran’s threats to peace and security. — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) October 30, 2018"
This situation has thrown a huge stumbling block into the EU plans to keep the JCPOA deal alive.
Iran has had a long record of pursuing opponents living abroad. Last month, a series of raids in France and across Europe caught several Iranian diplomats and sleeper cells planning terrorist operations. ( "4-Oct-18 World View -- Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe")
There's a darkly ironic twist because Iran has strongly condemned Saudi Arabia's killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul Turkey, and is now accused of the same crime. Russia has used the nerve agent Novichok to murder opponents living in Britain, but to my knowledge they've issued no statement on Iran's alleged assassination attempt in Copenhagen. The Local (Denmark, 9-May) and Deutsche Welle and The Local (Denmark, 29-Sep) and Washington Post
John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Nov-18 World View -- EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(2-Nov-2018)
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Asia Bibi acquittal triggers widespread riots and terrorist threats
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Pakistan's Supreme Court on Wednesday reversed the conviction of Asia Bibi, a Christian woman with five children who was convicted of blasphemy and sentenced to death by hanging in 2010, and has remained on death row since then. The court's scathing decision not only acquitted her, but also accused the two women who accused her of blasphemy, as well as the prosecutors who took the case to trial, of their own acts of blasphemy against Asia's religion, Christianity.
Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), the political party of the loony Barelvi sect of hardline Sunni Islam has called for nationwide riots, and the assassination of the three Supreme Court judges, who are being given additional protection. Widespread protests erupted on Wednesday in cities across Pakistan, including Lahore and Karachi, shutting down roads.
It was feared that the government would bow to the Barelvi/TLP demands and ignore the court's decision. That hasn't happened so far, and the new prime minister Imran Khan has endorsed the court verdict, and condemned the protesters:
"These protesters are not ‘protecting’ Islam; they are just trying to fill their vote banks. They are enemies of the state that are doing politics in the name of the religion. People cannot get to their jobs. A laborer, who had to get to his work place and would be unable to feed his children because of this. ...Do not force the government to take action. Do not clash with the state or hurt the country only for political gains."
However, there are still concerns that the Barelvi/TLP terrorists will prevent Asia Bibi from leaving the country, now that she's free and several countries have offered her asylum.
The blasphemy charge occurred when a bunch of women started arguing with each other. Several women refused to drink out of the same cup as Asia because she's a Christian. Five days later, they decided to charge her with blasphemy. She was prosecuted and has been in jail until today.
Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab province in Pakistan, called for the release of Asia Bibi, and was shot 28 times in broad daylight in an open marketplace on January 4, 2011. The killer was his bodyguard, Mumtaz Qadri. The motive, as described by Qadri, was to punish Taseer for objecting to Pakistan's blasphemy laws, and for calling for the release of Asia Bibi. Qadri was not just a national hero, but he was a Barelvi hero, and it's that execution that led to the rise of TLP. Since Qadri justified his murder of Taseer with a phony blasphemy charge, the TLP political movement is based almost entirely on phony blasphemy charges. Qadri was showered with roses and treated as a hero in 2011 after brutally murdering Taseer. Qadri was finally executed last year, but not before he became a national hero for killing Taseer over a phony blasphemy charge.
So Asia Bibi has been a political foil for the loony Barelvi sect for eight years. If she is successful in leaving the country, at least that part of saga may be over. BBC and Deutsche Welle and Dawn (Pakistan, 13-Oct)
The court's opinion is very long, 56 pages. Each statement or conclusion is supported by a verse from the Koran. It's in roughly three parts.
The first part is the history of blasphemy laws in Pakistan. The second part describes the evidence against Asia Bibi.
The third part is a scathing criticism of the women who accused Asia of blasphemy, and of the prosecutors who tried the case, repeated lying and ignoring exculpatory evidence. Furthermore, the court accuses the women and the prosecutors and even the trial courts of violating Mohammed's covenant with Christians and Christianity, and of being guilty themselves of blasphemy, for having blasphemed the religion of Asia Bibi, which was Christianity.
The following are extracts from the latter parts of the opinion. According to the judgment, the Asia Bibi's prosecutors repeatedly lied, and so the prosecutors were in violation of the Koran:
"20. The glaring and stark contradictions in the evidence produced by the prosecution in respect of every factual aspect of this case, noticed by me above, lead to an irresistible and unfortunate impression that all those concerned in the case with providing evidence and conducting investigation had taken upon themselves not to speak the truth or at least not to divulge the whole truth. It is equally disturbing to note that the courts below had also, conveniently or otherwise, failed to advert to such contradictions and some downright falsehood. All concerned would have certainly done better if they had paid heed to what Almighty Allah has ordained in the Holy Qur’an:“O you who have believed, be persistently standing firm for Allah, witnesses in justice, and do not let the hatred of a people prevent you from being just. Be just, that is nearer to righteousness. And fear Allah; indeed, Allah is acquainted with what you do.” (Surah Al-Ma’idah: verse 8)
“So follow not [personal] inclination, lest you not be just. And if you distort [your testimony] or refuse [to give it], then indeed Allah is ever, with what you do, acquainted.” (Surah An-Nisa: verse 135)"
The court was particularly suspicious that Asia was only accused of blasphemy five days after the alleged incident occurred, and that Asia's accusers themselves had insulted her (Christian) religion. They say that the Koran demands every Muslim believe in all the holy prophets, including Jesus Christ, and that therefore Asia's accusers were themselves blasphemers:
"23. The statements made by [prosecutors] before the trial court revealed that the alleged blasphemy had been committed by the Christian appellant after her Muslim co-workers had insulted the appellant’s religion and had injured her religious sensibilities only because she believed in and was a follower of Jesus Christ. According to the Holy Qur’an a Muslim’s faith is not complete till he believes in all the Holy Prophets and Messengers of Almighty Allah including Jesus Christ (Isa son of Maryam) (Peace Be Upon Him) and all the revealed Holy Books of Almighty Allah including the Holy Bible. From that perspective insulting the appellant’s religion by her Muslim co-workers was no less blasphemous. Almighty Allah, the Creator of mankind, knew how a human being whose religion and religious sensibilities are insulted is likely to snap and retort and that is why it was ordained in the Holy Qur’an that“And do not insult those they invoke other than Allah, lest they insult Allah in enmity without knowledge. Thus We have made pleasing to every community their deeds. Then to their Lord is their return, and He will inform them about what they used to do.” (Surah Al-An’am: verse 108)
The Muslim co-workers of the appellant had violated the command of Almighty Allah by insulting the Deity believed in and the religion followed by the appellant and, even if the prosecution’s allegations against the appellant were to be accepted as correct, the stated reaction to the same by the appellant was not different from that warned about by Almighty Allah."
The court went on at length to describe how Mohammed was committed to protecting Christians and Christianity, and so Asia's accusers were actually violating one of Mohammed's covenants:
"24. In view of the glaring contradictions in the evidence produced by the prosecution it has appeared to me to be equally plausible that due to the quarrel taking place between the appellant and her Muslim coworkers at the spot without any offending word having been uttered by the appellant the quarrel was reported by the Muslim ladies to others who then, after deliberating over the matter for five long days, had decided to go after the appellant with a false allegation regarding commission of blasphemy. If that were so then the Muslim witnesses in this case had violated a covenant of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) with those professing the Christian faith. [One covenant is with the] Monks of Mount Sinai. It is reported that in or around the year 628 A.D. a delegation from St. Catherine’s Monastery, the world’s oldest monastery located at the foot of Mount Sinai in Egypt, came to the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him), requested for his protection and he responded by granting them a charter of rights. That charter, also known as The Promise to St. Catherine, was translated from Arabic to English language by Dr. A. Zahoor and Dr. Z. Haq as follows:"This is a message from Muhammad ibn Abdullah, as a covenant to those who adopt Christianity, near and far, we are with them.
Verily I, the servants, the helpers, and my followers defend them, because Christians are my citizens; and by God! I hold out against anything that displeases them. No compulsion is to be on them. Neither are their judges to be removed from their jobs nor their monks from their monasteries. No one is to destroy a house of their religion, to damage it, or to carry anything from it to the Muslims' houses. Should anyone take any of these, he would spoil God's covenant and disobey His Prophet. Verily, they are my allies and have my secure charter against all that they hate.
No one is to force them to travel or to oblige them to fight. The Muslims are to fight for them. If a female Christian is married to a Muslim, it is not to take place without her approval. She is not to be prevented from visiting her church to pray. Their churches are to be respected. They are neither to be prevented from repairing them nor the sacredness of their covenants. No one of the nation (Muslims) is to disobey the covenant till the Last Day (end of the world)."
The promise made was eternal and universal and was not limited to St. Catherine alone. The rights conferred by the charter are inalienable and the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) had declared that Christians, all of them, were his allies and he equated ill treatment of Christians with violating God’s covenant. It is noticeable that the charter imposed no conditions on Christians for enjoying its privileges and it was enough that they were Christians. They were not required to alter their beliefs, they did not have to make any payments and they did not have any obligations. The charter was of rights without any duties and it clearly protected the right to property, freedom of religion, freedom of work, and security of person."
The court reaches its final conclusion, completely acquitting Asia Bibi:
"[25.] Blasphemy is a serious offence but the insult of the appellant’s religion and religious sensibilities by the complainant party and then mixing truth with falsehood in the name of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) was also not short of being blasphemous. It is ironical that in the Arabic language the appellant’s name Asia means ‘sinful’ but in the circumstances of the present case she appears to be a person, in the words of Shakespeare’s King Leare, “more sinned against than sinning”.26. For what has been discussed above a conclusion is inescapable and irresistible that the prosecution had failed to prove its case against the appellant beyond reasonable doubt. This appeal is, therefore, allowed, the conviction and sentence of the appellant recorded and upheld by the courts below are set aside and she is acquitted of the charge by extending the benefit of doubt to her. She shall be released from the jail forthwith if not required to be detained in connection with any other case."
Although not mentioned in the opinion, the implication is that TLP is also guilty of blasphemy. Pakistan Supreme Court (PDF) and Christianity Today and BBC
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan court reaffirms Mohammed's covenant with Christianity, acquits Asia Bibi of blasphemy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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