Dynamics
|
|
Generational Dynamics |
| Modern Generational Theory | |
| HOME WEB LOG COUNTRY STUDIES COMMENT FORUM | |
| DOWNLOADS FOURTH TURNING ARCHIVE ABOUT | |
Iran may have purposely baited the Americans to make the airstrikes
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
On Sunday, US forces conducted airstrikes against five facilities in Iraq and Syria belonging to Kataib Hezbollah (Hezbollah Brigades). The locations included weapon storage facilities and command and control locations.
Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah (KH) is a different militant Shia organization than the Lebanon Hezbollah organization that is usually in the news, but both organizations are puppets of Iran and the militant Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The airstrikes were in retaliation for numerous KH artillery strikes on American military bases in Iraq, particularly for a strike on Friday on a US base in Anbar province in western Iraq, killing a US Army contractor, wounding four US armed forces members, and two members of the Iraqi Security Forces. Over 25 KH members were killed.
When ISIS was defeated in Iraq two years ago, the US pulled out most of its troops, leaving behind 5,000 troops at the invitation of Iraq's government to aid and support the Iraqi security forces as they search for and clear ISIS eleeper cells hiding in the deserts. One of these ISIS clearing missions coincided with the US airstrikes against KH.
During the war to eject ISIS from Iraq, US forces fought alongside the Iran-backed Shia Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), since the mostly Sunni Iraqi army soldiers did not want to fight against the Sunni ISIS fighters. After ISIS was defeated, some PMF fighters became Kataib Hezbollah (KH), and have been using violence to force the US to leave Iraq.
Kataib Hezbollah on Monday sought to justify the artillery strikes killing Americans. According to KH spokesman Mohammed Mohieh on Monday:
"We are warning the United States as we've warned before -- that their illegal presence means that they're standing against the Iraqi people, and the Iraqi people have the right to confront them with all types of resistance."
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said:
"What we did was take a decisive response that makes clear what President Trump has said for months and months and months was that we will not stand for the Islamic Republic of Iran to take actions that put American men and women in jeopardy."
According to reports, the US warned the Iraq government half an hour before the planned airstrikes, and they said, DON'T DO IT, but the US did it anyway.
The Iraqi army is supposed to protect American bases from attacks by KH and the PMF. There have been numerous attacks in the past, although Friday's was the first where an American was killed. After each attack, Iraq promised to investigate the attack and determine what happened. According to analysts, the PMF are deeply embedded in Iraq's legislature and government, and so the "investigations" have gone nowhere although everyone knows which organization is responsible for the attacks.
After the airstrikes, Iraq's prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi issued a statement saying that the American attack on the Iraqi armed forces as an unacceptable vicious assault that will have dangerous consequences. His reference to the "Iraqi armed forces" reflects the fact that many of the PMF units have been incorporated into Iraq's army after defeating ISIS, and therefore the airstrikes targeted Iraq's army on Iraq's soil.
Not surprisingly, there have been the usual chorus of outrage against the United States for the airstrikes from the usual stellar peace-loving world community members as Iran, Russia and China.
Pundits have been speculating on the consequences and outcome of the American airstrikes.
Some pundits have speculated that this is just the first step in a planned American action against Iran, possibly a war.
Others have speculated that the IRGC and KH will now have to retaliate against the Americans and that, once again, this will lead to war.
Neither of those speculations seems particularly likely.
However, it's possible that the airstrikes will further destabilize Iraq's government. Iraq has been facing massive anti-Iran and anti-government protests, as I've described several times. (See "29-Nov-19 World View -- Spiraling bloodbath in Iraq, as anti-Iran and anti-government riots spread")
Most of protesters have been objecting to Iran's influence in Iraq, blaming Iran for Iraq's impoverishment. Most of the protesters are from the predominantly Shia southern Iraq, and are young kids who are well aware that their grandfathers and grandmothers were attacked, raped, tortured, and killed by Iranians during the Iran/Iraq war.
A couple of analysts have suggested that the KH attacks on American bases were ordered by Iran purposely to bait the Americans into conducting exactly the kind of airstrike that occurred, so that Iran could unify the Iraqis against the Americans.
This would be typical of Iran's playbook. During the 1979 Iran civil war, the clerics were able to unite the Iranians by taking over the American embassy in Tehran and keeping the Americans hostage (the Iranian Hostage Crisis). Since then, as Iran's younger generations have grown increasingly pro-Western and pro-American, Iran's hardline geezer leadership has been desperately using one trick after another to achieve the same result. What they've discovered, as I've described many times, is that what works in a generational Crisis era fails in a generational Awakening or Unraveling era, and today, most Iranians today see through these desperate attempts by Iran's leadership.
Although the press is describing the KH attacks and retaliatory airstrikes as a conflict between the US versus Iraq and Iran, it's really a conflict between Iraq versus Iran, replaying some of the bitter, violent clashes of the 1980s Iran/Iraq generational crisis war.
The United States has played the role of Policeman of the World since the Truman Doctrine was announced in 1947. Whenever the US plays policeman, it has always received blame for not doing it right, or for doing it for the oil. Today, we're hearing pundits blame the problems in the Mideast on the US because the US has been withdrawing from the Mideast. Presumably these people believe that we should somehow intervene between Iraq and Iran in the current mess. I'm sure that would go well.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(31-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The genocide and ethnic cleansing continue in Idlib, Syria
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
As we've been reporting several times this month, the war in Libya has been heating up. There are two governments in Libya. The western government of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar, has been moving east and attacking the internationally recognized Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj.
The war is increasingly a proxy war. Haftar's LNA is backed with weapons and warplanes by Egypt and United Arab Emirates, while Qatar has been supplying weapons to the GNA. In recent months, Haftar's LNA is being helped by troops from the Wagner PMC Mercenary Group, the private army of Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
Turkey has joined Qatar on the side of the Tripoli-based GNA, and last month Turkey and Libya signed an agreement whereby Turkey would supply weapons to the GNA and also, if asked, would supply ground troops to the GNA.
Well, GNA prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj has formally asked Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to send ground troops.
Erdogan really doesn't want to send Turkish troops to Libya, since that would be unpopular among the Turkish people, but he promised so he has to. So he's apparently found the ideal solution.
Erdogan has been working with anti-Assad rebel groups in northern Syria, so he's going to ask some of those rebels to go to Tripoli to fight against Haftar in the name of Turkey. Apparently the incentive is that each of the rebels will receive $300 upon signing the contract in Syria, and will receive $2,000 per month in Libya.
So that should make it truly a proxy war. It won't be Libyans fighting Libyans. It will be Syria's anti-Assad rebels, provided by Erdogan, fighting against Russia's Wagner mercenaries, provided by Putin.
Whether either side in this proxy battle is competent enough to win remains to be seen. However, the potential escalation in fighting is raising concerns. In Italy, which was Libya's colonial power once upon a time, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is strongly opposing Turkey's intervention and is calling for an internationally supervised no-fly zone in Libya. "A no-fly zone too can be an instrument for achieving a goal: the immediate cessation of hostilities."
I guess that's true, but let's recall that in 2011 the Libyan war took hold when the Arab League called for an internationally supervised no-fly zone in Libya. History may repeat itself.
The massacre of innocent women and children by Syrian and Russian warplanes, including some reports of chemical weapons, along with Syrian ground troops, is continuing in full force.
In just the last month, the number of people who have been forced from their home has reached a quarter million. Most are headed north, wanting to cross the border into Turkey, and from there travel into Europe. So far, Turkey has kept the border closed. But the assault on Idlib, with 3.5 million people, shows no sign of slowing, and Turkey may not be able to keep the border closed when hundreds of thousands more try to push through.
Here's a statement by Raed Al Saleh, head of the White Helmet humanitarian group:
"It seems that 2019 was the year the international community and the UN completely abandoned Syria and politicians have even run out of words of condemnation.My biggest fear as the year comes to a close is for the attacks to intensify further, causing new waves of displacement because there is nowhere left for people to run to. Every olive tree has become a tent and every camp has exceeded its capacity ten times over.
I still cannot understand how the world’s most powerful nations can meet those horrors with silence and inaction."
That statement is actually funny. He's complaining because almost nobody cares about the Holocaust going on in Idlib. Actually, there are three Holocausts going on today that almost nobody cares about, all targeting Sunni Muslims: China's genocide, ethnic cleansing, and enslavement of over a million Sunni Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in East Turkestan (Xinjiang Province), Buddhist Myanmar's (Burma's) genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim ethnic Rohingyas, and Bashar al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing of his Sunni Muslim political opponents in Syria.
There are several Holocausts going on today, and nobody cares. Actually, nobody cared about the Nazi-Jew Holocaust while it was going on. To care about a Holocaust while it's actually going on is too politically painful, because the politicians, the trolls, the defenders, the acolytes, the deniers, the cheerleaders, the propagandists, and the collaborators all benefit from the Holocaust, the genocide, the slaughter, and will protect it. It's only after it's over that nobody stands to benefit, and then the wise men can stand up and say, "Never Again!"
So Raed Al Saleh should stop whining just accept the fact that there's going to be a bloody massacre of almost unimaginable proportions in Idlib. After it ends, he can go on TV and join the chorus saying "Never Again!"
Sources:
Related Articles
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(29-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
As Syria's sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, continues to escalate his assault on the 3.5 million Arab Sunnis in Idlib province, including about 1.5 million children. Among those 3.5 million people, there are some 70,000 anti-Assad rebels.
According to some reports, Assad's strategy is to attack markets, residential neighborhoods, schools and hospitals in order to kill as many women and children as possible, and force the rest to flee towards the border with Turkey.
According to reports, some 120,000 civilians have abandoned their homes and are fleeing north towards the border with Turkey. Then, according to these reports, al-Assad's ground forces can move into the villages that have been deserted by these civilians and supposedly the only ones left are that men who are fighting against al-Assad.
In a speech on Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey is already hosting 3.7 million Syrian refugees. For the past three years, Turkey has had an agreement with Greece and the European Union to block Syrian refugees from leaving Turkey. Turkey has mostly kept to that agreement, while the EU has reneged on most of the commitments it made.
Erdogan on Sunday said that Turkey cannot handle a "new refugee wave" from Syria, and that the new influx will be felt by Greece and "will be felt by all European countries." Most Syrian refugees want to go to Europe anyway, and the implementation is that Turkey will no longer try to prevent them from doing so.
In the past, Russia and Turkey have agreed that Idlib will be a de-escalation zone, or a ceasefire zone. All those agreements about ceasefire zones were never more than covers for further further assaults by Syria and Russia. But now Assad has reached the Idlib deescalation zone, so Russia's support for Assad makes Russia Turkey's enemy.
Russian officials are claiming that they are working for peace in Idlib, but Russian officials never tell the truth except by accident. So far, it's impossible to determine what Russia's plans are in Idlib, whether to help Assad or to stop al-Assad. We'll probably know within the next few months, but al-Assad has always made it clear that he plans to take control of Idlib and exterminate the 3.5 million Arab Sunni civilians living there, so I would consider it unlikely that Russia will stop al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing.
As we reported last week, the war in Libya is also escalating. ( "21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey")
Turkey had promised weapons and military advisers to the government, but during the last few days, the Tripoli government has made a request for ground troops from Turkey.
There are two governments in Libya. The internationally recognized Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, and the renegade Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar.
Haftar has been trying for three years lead his Libyan National Army to defeat the Tripoli government, with little success. During the last few months, Russia's president Vladimir Putin has made his private army, the Wagner PMC Mercenary Group, available to Haftar, and now they are leading the military effort to defeat Tripoli.
And so, as in Idlib, Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the battle, and, as in Idlib, Russian officials are claiming that they're negotiating for peace.
As I wrote in 2015, Turkey and Russia have been bitter enemies for centuries, and have fought numerous generational crisis wars. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars".)
Any alliance made between the two countries today could only be a temporary marriage of convenience. Turkey is so thoroughly isolated in the region that it needs support from Russia. Russia is totally duplicitous and appears to be playing all sides to see which one wins.
As we reported in last week's article, there was a second agreement signed by Libya and Turkey on the same day as the military agreement: A maritime agreement that claims a shared exclusive economic zone (EEZ) consisting of a 200-mile wide strip that splits much of the eastern Mediterrean between them.
The claimed region is rich in oil and gas, and makes the Libya-Turkey agreements much more important than Turkey merely helping out a friend in Libya. If the maritime agreement could be upheld, it would mean a great deal of energy money pouring into Turkey's coffers.
The agreement is almost certainly illegal, as the claimed region overlaps regions historically belonging to Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon, Egypt and Israel. Furthermore, it would block a planned Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum agreement signed by Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, and Greece earlier this year, along with a planned pipeline that would carry natural gas to Greece and Italy.
Putting all this together, you have:
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these are additional tensions that keep surging in this generational Crisis era, adding to numerous tensions elsewhere, including Hong Kong, the South China Sea, Kashmir, India, Pakistan, and South America.
In the 1990s, when the Silent generation was running the world, a small clash would almost always be quickly settled. Today, with the Gen-Xers running the world, a small clash could escalate into a larger war. With all these tensions and clashes occurring around the world, at some point one of them will escalate.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(26-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The assault by the Syrian regime and Russia is continuing to escalate, as I described several days ago. ( "19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border")
Massive bombardments by Syrian and Russian warplanes have continued. The United Nations has condemned "a well-documented pattern of attacks against civilians and infrastructure." This pattern involves the use of powerful barrel bombs particularly targeting masses of women and children, including attacks on schools, marketplaces, maternity hospitals and other hospitals, and residential neighborhoods.
According to the UN, tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing for their lives by traveling north towards the border with Turkey. There are 3.5 million civilians in Idlib, and as the Syrian - Russian assault continues to escalate, it's expected that several hundred thousand will travel to the Turkey border, where they either be slaughtered like fish in a barrel, or else they'll force themselves into Turkey.
There's been another change in the last couple of weeks, with the introduction of Syrian regime ground forces. They've been concentrating on highway M5 in order to reopen the link between Damascus and Aleppo. This has gone on while the airstrikes have continued inside Idlib. Presumably, once the M5 highway has been fully reopened, the ground troops will move into the other civilian villages.
For two years, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been promising a full-scale assault to take control of Idlib, even if it means killing the 3.5 million Arab Sunni civilians, whom al-Assad considers to be loathsome cockroaches to be exterminated.
Unless something changes, we're going to see a major new humanitarian crisis. We're also going to see hundreds of thousands of civilians crowd across the border into Turkey, and from there many thousands will continue into Europe, creating a new European refugee crisis.
In a surprise on Friday in the UN Security Council, Russia and China vetoed the resolution to continue the humanitarian aid program for Idlib, and instead offered an alternative resolution that severely restricted the amount of humanitarian aid.
The reason given is that program is no longer necessary, since Bashar al-Assad now controls enough of Syria that he can provide the humanitarian aid, instead of the United Nations. This is typical of the laughable crap that we're always hearing from Russian officials and Russian trolls.
The current aid resolution expires on January 10. Until then, the United States and other diplomats are going to be negotiating with the Russians to try to get the existing program extended.
This veto makes it pretty clear that the Syrian regime and Russia are now going all out to take control of Idlib, no matter how many millions of civilians are killed. Ironically, it won't end the war, since there are still many pockets of anti-Assad Sunni Arabs across Syria. Furthermore Turkey is in control of some of Syria's territory, and the Kurds are in control of a large part of eastern Syria, as can be seen in the map in my last article on Idlib.
It's pretty clear that al-Assad is going to finish up his massive genocide and ethnic cleansing of his Sunni Arab political opponents. Does anyone care except people who are paid to care?
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(22-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens Egypt, Greece, Cyprus
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya escalated sharply on Friday as warplanes from the renegade government bombed targets in the capital city Tripoli, as well as Misurata and Sirte.
The internationally recognized government is the Government of National Accord (GNA), with headquarters in the capital city Tripoli, in western Libya, led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. On Thursday, the GNA and Turkey announced that Turkey would be supplying the GNA with weapons, military advisors and, if requested, soldiers.
The renegade government is headed by General Khalifa Haftar, who defected from the internationally recognized government in 2014 and formed a government in eastern Libya in Tobruk, known as the Libyan National Army (LNA).
The bombing of Tripoli and the two other cities began after the announcement that Turkey would be supplying military aid to the GNA. Haftar also issued an ultimatum that all GNA militias must pull out of the three cities by Sunday evening. Haftar announced on Friday that his forces were making "pre-emptive airstrikes against three separate locations near Tripoli that were expected landing points for Turkish military forces."
GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj asked Turkey, the US and several European countries to come to their aid.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin said on Thursday said that he was "in contact with all regional parties to try and end the conflict in Libya."
It's been known for several months that the Wagner Group, Vladimir Putin's "private" militia, has been operating in Libya in support of Haftar. Putin has used Wagner in Syria, Ukraine and Central AFrican Republic when he wants to intervene militarily, but maintain deniability by not using the Russian army directly. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic")
On Friday, Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the "possible deployment of Turkish troops in Libya is a source of worry" because it "could trigger a reaction from neighboring states."
It's unclear what will happen when Haftar's deadline passes on Sunday evening, but there is certainly a possibility of a much larger conflict.
The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya is about to be escalated as the Government of National Accord (GNA) in western Libya in Tripoli has accepted Turkey's offer of military help. The GNA, headed by prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj, is the government officially recognized by the United Nations, the United States and the European Union, and is militarily supported by Qatar, Italy, the Muslim Brotherhood, and now Turkey.
Libya's civil war began in 2011 with the "Arab Spring" that was triggered by the death of a food vendor next door in Tunisia. There were widespread riots in multiple Arab countries in Spring 2011, including Libya, where there were hundreds of thousands of Libyan refugees pouring into neighboring countries, and thousands more crossing the Mediterranean Sea into Europe. With a growing bloodbath in Libya, the leader Muammar Gaddafi threatened to kill all protesters, and crush any enemy, with mass slaughter. With Libya's civil war destabilizing the entire region, the Arab League unanimously requested the UN, the US and Europe to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, to keep Gaddafi from bombing and killing civilians. Nato implemented a no-fly zone, but the conflict in Libya continued until Gaddafi was killed.
In the aftermath, Libya became increasingly lawless and ungovernable. Libya is a land of hundreds of militias, all competing with one another for money and power. The United Nations attempted several times to set up a stable government. The latest attempt is the Government of National Accord (GNA), which is currently the government internationally recognized by the UN, US, the EU, and particularly by Libya's former colonial power, Italy. It is also an an Islamist government supported by Qatar, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood.
However, in May 2014, General Khalifa Haftar defected from the government and joined a group of anti-government militias who claimed to be fighting Islamist terrorists. He was supported by Egypt's General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt in 2013. Haftar was an ally of Muammar Gaddafi in the 1969 Libyan revolution, but he turned against Gaddafi in the 1980s, and fled to the U.S. where he apparently became a citizen living in Virginia and became a CIA asset. He returned to Libya after the 2011 war. Haftar set up his own capital city in Tobruk in eastern Libya, where he formed the Libyan National Army (LNA), and backed by many former military officers as well as militias tied to the cities of Benghazi, Tobruk and Ajdabiya in the east and Zintan in the west.
Starting in 2014, Haftar's forces moved west with the intention of defeating the GNA government in Tripoli and taking control. Haftar was supplied with weapons and backed by warplanes from Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Since then, Qatar and UAE have been supplying weapons to the opposing sides, the Islamists and secularists, respectively, in Libya, making it a proxy war. However, the war has continued with neither side being successful in landing a decisive blow.
But now Turkey is joining Qatar in supplying weapons and military advisors to the internationally recognized Islamist Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. So far, this is only advisors and weapons, but not troops. We'll have to see if this results in a victory by either side, or if there's a major escalation.
Yes, Dear Reader, there's more.
The military agreement under which Turkey is now providing weapons, advisors and possibly soldiers to Libya was signed on November 28.
On the same day, the two countries also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on "Delimitation Of The Maritime Jurisdiction Areas In The Mediterranean." In this second agreement, Libya and Turkey agreed to the boundaries of the continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of each country within the Mediterranean Sea. The result is that they've created a 200-mile wide strip between their countries that they claim they own as their shared EEZ, and which are rich in minerals, oil and gas.
However, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus are pointing out that their own EEZ regions supercede and conflict with the claimed Libya-Turkey EEZ regions. In particular, the Libya-Turkey EEZ regions interfere with a gigantic gas field off Egypt's coast, and with a planned pipeline between Israel and Cyprus.
However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that on the basis of his country’s occupation since 1974 of Northern Cyprus, he might lay claim to all waters around Cyprus.
There have already been verbal threats of war between Greece and Turkey over oil and gas exploration around Cyprus, and those threats may increase as a result of this new agreement between Libya and Turkey.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(21-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The United Nations is condemning the escalated bombing by Syrian and Russian warplanes of civilian targets in Syria's northwest province, Idlib.
The bombing has substantially intensified since the beginning of November. Bashar al-Assad's warplanes are specially targeting hospitals, schools, residential neighborhoods and marketplaces in order to kill as many women and children as possible, whom he considers to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Al-Assad is using barrel bombs, which are large barrels filled with explosives, metal, and sometimes chlorine gas, ammonia and phosphorous.
According to Turkey's media, about 110,000 civilians have been forced to leave their homes, as 12,000 of them are headed for Turkey's border, presumably with the intention of crossing.
The numbers are staggering. A million Syrian refugees have come to Europe, mostly by crossing through Turkey. Turkey itself hosts 3.7 million Syrians who fled al-Assad's violence in the past. Idlib is home to 2.4 million residents, but they've been augmented by 1.1 million additional Syrians who arrived in Idlib to escape al-Assad's violence in earlier target sites like Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa. Of the 3.5 million civilians in Idlib, it's estimated that about 70,000 of them are members of al-Qaeda linked al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) later renamed Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS, and then renamed again to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
For two years, al-Assad has repeatedly said that he considers all 3.5 million residents of Idlib to be terrorists, and that he plans to take control of Idlib, presumably exterminating many or all of those 3.5 million "terrorists." This would create a huge humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands more refugees pouring across the border into Turkey. Many of them would then go on to attempt to cross into Europe.
With the sharp escalation in bombing of Idlib by Syrian and Russian warplanes since the beginning of November, it appears that a full scale assault is likely to begin soon.
Syria's Idlib province has been out of the news for several months now, since the world has been focused on the REALLY important stuff like Brexit and impeachment.
But Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and his Russian puppetmaster Vladimir Putin have been using the time and their respective warplanes for increasing attacks on civilians in Idlib province, including missile attacks on markets, hospitals and schools.
A full-scale attack on Idlib has been expected for a couple of years, but apparently al-Assad has been held back by Russia as part of the complex ménage à trois relationship connecting Syria, Russia and Turkey.
Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, the objective of Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad is the genocide and ethnic cleansing of all his Sunni Arab political enemies. His father Hafez al-Assad, fought an extremely vicious and bloody ethnic civil war with that ethnic group in the 1980s, and now al-Assad wants to finish the job with his own "final solution." (See "1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria")
So al-Assad's objective in Idlib is to do the same kinds of things that he's previously done in in other regions like Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa, where he used barrel bombs on hospitals, schools, marketplaces and residential neighborhoods, along with chlorine gas and Sarin gas, in order to clean out and exterminate the three million Sunni Arabs in Idlib, whom he considers worse than cockroaches.
Russia's objective is to keep control of its two military bases in Syria -- the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase. Russia lost all its Mediterranean military bases in the 1990s when the Soviet Union collapsed, and now Russia desperately want to keep these two in Syria. Russia's president Vladimir Putin obtained control of these two military bases in 2015 in return for saving al-Assad from defeat in 2015, when his army was close to collapse.
Russia also wants to remain friendly with Turkey, because Putin wants to pull Turkey away from Europe and Nato. So Putin has held al-Assad back from an all-out attack on Idlib, because that would send millions of refugees across the border into Turkey.
Turkey's objective is to prevent a humanitarian disaster in Idlib that would send those millions of refugees across the border. Turkey is already hosting 3.6 million refugees that fled al-Assad's previous violence in other regions. Furthermore, in eastern Syria, Turkey is well on its way to setting up a buffer zone in northern Syria along the border with Turkey. Turkey would like to expel all Kurds from that buffer zone, and replace them with some two million Syrian refugees that Turkey is currently hosting.
So now, getting back to al-Assad, he has frequently stated the intention of exterminating what he views are three million cockroaches in Idlib province, and doesn't care about any humanitarian disaster.
In August, al-Assad visited the Syrian army troops in Idlib, and accused Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of being a thief, backed by his American master, who steals wheat, petroleum, factories and land from Syria. He again made clear his intention of winning "the Battle of Idlib":
"What Syria has gone through during these nine years can be likened to the chapters of a play prepared and directed and executed by one side, but in each chapter it would have a different main character or actor, and the main actor of the current stage is Erdogan, who was the most successful in being a pawn in the hands of his American master and in being a thief who steals wheat, petroleum, and factories, and now he is trying to steal land. ...The Idlib front is very important, particularly since it was an advanced outpost for them, while the battle was in the east, which aimed at scattering the army, which is why we have always said that the conclusion of the battle in Idlib is the basis for ending chaos and terrorism across Syria."
This suggests that al-Assad's planned assault on Idlib could end up being a conflict between Syria and Turkey.
Vladimir Putin, the third member of the ménage à trois, will have to figure out how to prevent a war from breaking out if Russia is to maintain its influence with both.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(19-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Riots spread across India along Hindu-Muslim fault line
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
A proposed bill that appears to discriminate against Muslims has triggered demonstrations and riots in multiple cities across India, including college campuses in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Lucknow, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata (Calcutta) and Mumbai (Bombay). The protests have been mostly peaceful, but there has been some violence, and there is viral video of people attacking peacefully protesting students and beating them. Six people have died in Delhi, about 200 were injured.
The proposed Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) is complex. It allows refugees from three neighboring countries -- Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan -- to seek citizenship in India.
But there's a requirement: The refugee seeking citizenship must not be Muslim. He or she may be Hindu, Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh or Buddhist, but not Muslim.
The reason given for this restriction is that all three of these neighboring countries are "Muslim countries," with majority Muslim populations and Muslim governments. So the CAB is said to provide citizenship to harassed or persecuted religious minorities in the three Muslim countries. The explanation ignores the issue of the Sufis and Ahmadis in Pakistan, who are Muslim, but are still targeted and persecuted.
According to prime minister Narendra Modi, Muslims from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan are not covered because they have no need of India's protection. He tweeted that the new law "does not affect any citizen of India of any religion."
However, Modi is leader of the Hindu nationalist BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), and activists are accusing Modi of discriminating against Muslims, and violating India's secular constitution.
This is the second major Indian government decision this year that has triggered protests and complaints of discrimination against Muslims.
In August, India revoked Article 370 of India's constitution. That article made Kashmir, which is a Muslim majority province, a semi-autonomous state of India, allowing some level of self-government. Revoking Article 370 means that Kashmir no longer has a special status, and is now just another state in India, under full control of Delhi. To prevent riots, Kashmir has been on virtual lockdown for several months, with strick curfews and with limited phone and internet service.
These two changes have something in common, at least in the eyes of the demonstrators. Revoking Article 370 means that, for the first time, Hindus will be able to buy property in Kashmir, and Muslims in Kashmir fears that in time Hindus will be in the majority. In the case of the new citizenship bill, some protesters have expressed the fear that an influx of Hindus from neighboring countries will cause some border area, especially in Assam in the northeast, to become Hindu majority in time.
Actually, residents of Assam are protesting the citizenship bill for entirely different reasons. Assam is populated by some 70 different ethnic groups, and they fear that any influx of refugees, whether Hindu or Muslim, will mean that they will lose their ethnic character. Indigenous people in Assam speak Assamese and Bengali, and both groups for years have competed over jobs and resources.
India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and then the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus against Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Today, the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters. Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new civil war between Muslims and Indians, or an external war with Pakistan, or both.
The number and belligerence of riots and demonstrations in India have been growing and spreading across the country for several weeks. It remains to be seen whether these demonstrations will fizzle out, or whether they will continue to grow into a much large anti-government rebellion.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(17-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
'Afghan Papers' reveal we sent 175,000 soldiers into Afghanistan
without 'foggiest notion' what we were doing
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The Washington Post has published a trove of thousands of "Afghanistan papers" that it has obtained from the Dept. of Defense under the Freedom of Information Act. The paper is declaring these to be of historic importance, and is comparing them to the "Pentagon Papers" that roiled federal politics in the 1970s.
Starting in 2014, the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) undertook a project to interview hundreds of people, including politicians, analysts, and soldiers, who are Americans, Europeans and Afghans, in a "Lessons Learned" project in order to figure out why nothing has worked in Afghanistan.
Presidents George Bush, Barack Obama, and now Donald Trump have all promised to bring the Afghan war to a satisfactory conclusion, defeating the Taliban, and making the country into a free market democracy. Even today, there are still truly idiotic "peace negotiations" going on in Doha, of all places, between US and Taliban negotiators, but not including Afghan government officials because the Taliban only want to negotiate with the US, but not with the Afghan government. Can you believe this?
The project found that Bush, Obama and Trump have all done the same things. They tried to win the war by not repeating earlier mistakes, or the mistakes of their predecessors, but all this meant was that they made new mistakes. And then, we're all shocked, shocked, shocked to learn from the Afghanistan Papers that the three presidents lied to the American people, always hiding the setbacks, always claiming that progress was being made, always saying that the end is in sight.
This is exasperating to me because I've written many times in the last ten years that the war in Afghanistan CANNOT be won, or even resolved in any meaningful way. And by that I didn't mean that the Nato forces just had to be a little more clever. I meant that it was literally impossible. Mathematically impossible.
I've given the reasoning many times, and I'll repeat it again below. The reasoning is not that difficult, but the problem is that the so-called experts in Washington really don't have a clue. Long-time readers are aware that I learned this in 2006, when the Congressional Quarterly and the London Times conducted surveys of supposed Mideast experts and found that they were idiots. (See "Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans" from January 2007)
I was really shocked at that time to realize that I knew a lot more than the so-called Mideast experts in Washington knew. In a sense it isn't surprising, since I'm a Boomer and went to college at a time when colleges actually taught something. Since then, SAT scores have been falling, and college professors are left-wing idiots who teach the equivalent of women's studies and sociology.
So it's not surprising that I know a lot more about analyzing Afghanistan than the Washington experts do. As I said, the reasoning in the analysis isn't that difficult, but it does contain some logical subleties that are beyond the mental capabilities of the so-called experts who graduated from Harvard or Princeton, where they leave with no clue about the real world.
This "shocking" discovery from the Afghanistan Papers of the total ignorance and stupidity of the so-called experts in Washington is really amazing, when you think that there might be one or two people in the State Dept. or DoD that can figure out what's really going on. But my guess is that such people would be too threatening to the élite "experts" from Harvard or Princeton, and so the people who really know what's going on are given offices in the basement in the boiler room, where they won't bother the élites.
Since 2001, more than 775,000 U.S. troops have deployed to Afghanistan, many repeatedly. Of those, 2,300 died there and 20,589 were wounded in action, according to Defense Department figures.
The Washington Post article quotes Douglas Lute, a three-star Army general who served as the White House’s Afghan war czar during the Bush and Obama administrations. He says the following in 2015:
"We were devoid of a fundamental understanding of Afghanistan — we didn’t know what we were doing. What are we trying to do here? We didn’t have the foggiest notion of what we were undertaking.If the American people knew the magnitude of this dysfunction ... 2,400 lives lost. Who will say this was in vain?"
See, this is what I mean. What the hell is going on here??? We're in Afghanistan fighting a war with hundreds of thousands of troops, and the Afghanistan "czar" for Bush and Obama says that "We didn't have the foggiest notion" of what we were doing?
Do you understand the magnitude of this, Dear Reader? We send hundreds of thousands of troops do a war where the don't have the foggiest notion of what we're doing. It's so hideously unbelievable that it's almost hysterically funny.
And if this is happening in Afghanistan, then it's also happening with American policy in the Mideast, in Africa, in Asia, and so forth.
I realize that the regular readers of my Generational Dynamics articles are a lot more intelligent than the so-called experts in Washington. But if you happen to know one of the "experts" on Afghanistan, then please send him a copy of this article. He'll either learn about what's really going on in Afghanistan, or else he'll change his spam filter so that all future e-mail messages from you go into his spam folder.
The Iraq war was a political disaster for Bush until he adopted the "surge" strategy in 2007. Obama and the Democrats ridiculed this strategy until it worked, and successfully ejected AQI (al-Qaeda in Iraq) from Iraq.
In 2009, Obama was faced with a potential political disaster in Afghanistan. He looked at the success of the "surge" strategy in Iraq, and decided that his surge strategy would be better than Bush's. So he adopted a surge strategy in Afghanistan. He would be even more successful in getting rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan than Bush was in getting rid of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
As I wrote at the time, and have written many times since then, the "surge" strategy was 100% guaranteed to fail in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was a foreign militia led by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and al-Zarqawi had to import fighters from Jordan and Saudi Arabia because the Iraqis refused to fight. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from April, 2007)
So the "surge" in Iraq worked because it had to eject a FOREIGN militia. But that's not true in Afghanistan. The Taliban are NOT foreign. They're radicalized Pashtuns, and Pashtuns are the dominant ethnic group IN AFGHANISTAN. So the "surge" can't eject the Taliban.
And so, Dear Reader, you understand that, don't you? As a reader of Generational Dynamics articles, you're more intelligent than the experts in Washington for whom this concept that AQI was foreign while the Taliban are domestic is much too subtle for the Washington experts to understand.
But that's only one of the reasons why the surge strategy would fail in Afghanistan with 100% certainty.
Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, where the major groups (Sunnis and Shias) were UNITED in fighting against Iran. So the Sunnis and Shias were also UNITED in ejecting al-Qaeda in Iraq. That's why the "surge" strategy worked in Iraq.
Afghanistan is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. The last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody, horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in Pakistan.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill each other.
In recent months, there's apparently been a new development. You still have the Pashtuns, who have been aligned with al-Qaeda, and other ethnic groups that loathe the Pashtuns are aligning with ISIS. This is the very early stages of a new civil war.
Now go back and review what General Douglas Lute said in the quote above: That we sent 175,000 troops into Afghanistan without having "the foggiest notion" of what we were doing.
It's this stuff about the Pashtuns and the civil war that the so-called Afghanistan experts don't have "the foggiest notion" about. And it's really not that complicated. You don't even have to know anything about generational theory to understand it.
You understand it, don't you Dear Reader? That's because you're intelligent and well-informed. You can take satisfaction in the fact that you understand why there's been one failure after another in Afghanistan, but that the so-called experts in Washington are too stupid to understand. This is what Lute was talking about.
So now we just have to sit back and watch these farcical peace talks take place in Doha between the US and the Taliban -- because the Taliban refuse to negotiate with the Afghan government!!!!! Hahahahahahahahaha.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(16-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
China's confused response to the North Korean threat
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
North Korea on Saturday announced that it conducted another "crucial test" which "will be applied to further bolstering up the reliable strategic nuclear deterrent of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea." This was the second test in the space of a week. The North Koreans didn't announce the nature of the tests, but it's believed that they were tests of an advanced rocket engine of a type that can be used in ballistic missiles.
North Korea has in recent weeks become increasingly belligerent, conducting a series of short-range missile tests and using increasingly belligerent language. The North Koreans have set a deadline of the end of the year for the US to agree to the removal of some or all of the US or UN sanctions unilaterally, without any serious denuclearization steps by the North Koreans.
Not surprisingly, North Korea's rhetoric toward Japan has been especially hostile. Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe responded to a recent missile test by saying, "North Korea’s repeated launches of ballistic missiles are a serious defiance to not only our country but also the international community." North Korea's state media responded by denouncing Japan's prime minister Abe as "an underwit," "the most stupid man ever known in history," and a "perfect imbecile."
On the other hand, Donald Trump last week once again referred to Kim Jong-un as "rocket man," saying that "he likes sending rockets up," but "in the meantime, we still have peace." A North Korean official said, "This naturally indicates that Trump is an old man bereft of patience. As he is such a heedless and erratic old man, the time when we can not but call him a 'dotard' again may come."
U.S. special envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun will arrive in Seoul on Sunday to meet with South Korean officials and devise a joint US-South Korea strategy for responding to North Korea's end of year threat.
For the past two years, since the talks between North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump began with a "charm offensive," North Korea has not tested any nuclear weapons or long-range ballistic missiles. However, it has made numerous tests of things like short-range missiles, which are a threat to South Korea and Japan.
North Korea originally promised that it would denuclearize, in return for agreement by the US to end the UN and US sanctions. Kim Jong-un has used a variety of artifices to trick Trump into removing the sanctions unilaterally, but has not succeeded. These tricks worked with president George Bush in 2008, which was a major humiliation to the US. But Trump has refused to fall for them.
Now, North Korea has set a deadline of the end of this year for the sanctions to be lifted. After two years of charm offensive, but being unable to get the sanctions lifted, the North Koreans now say that they have "nothing to lose" in taking "a new path." They have not said what the new path is, but it's believed that it would be a resumption of nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests.
It seems likely that the "new path" will be devised to take advantage of scheduled elections in America and South Korea, in November and April respectively, to apply maximum political pressure on Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. For example, the North Koreans might simply threaten to begin nuclear weapons testing again unless some or all of the sanctions are lifted.
According to reports, US envoy Stephen Biegun will discuss with South Korean officials a strategy to get the US-North Korea talks started again, in order to avoid a new regional crisis. According to one South Korean official, "In any case, Biegun would try to give an impression that they won’t be manipulated by the North Koreans, while making clear that they want to keep talking."
Normally, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) takes a highly contemptuous anti-American position on almost any subject, but that's not the case with the current situation. The Chinese are as unhappy with the North Koreans as they are with the Americans.
For centuries, Korea has had a vassal or tributary relationship with China. This means that Korea paid China a great deal of money, usually gold and slaves, in return for guarantees of defense from outsiders (i.e., Japan). Although China does not directly govern the vassal, China expects the vassal to do as it's told, and will not hesitate to punish a vassal that disobeys.
North Korea today pays tribute to China not in the form of gold and slaves, but in the form of massive amounts of coal and "workers," both of which are also used to provide financial aid to North Korea.
Relations between China and North Korea took a hostile turn in October 2006, when North Korea began testing nuclear weapons. The vassal North Korea did not do as it was told, and China punished its vassal by agreeing to United Nations sanctions targeting North Korea.
However, China cannot punish North Korea too severely. If China tries to starve North Korea, the result could be a massive refugee flow from North Korea, across the Yalu River, into northeast China, which would be an economic disaster for China.
The reason that China does not want North Korea testing nuclear weapons is simply because such tests provide the US with an excuse to increase its military presence in the area.
The Chinese were particularly infuriated in 2016 when North Korean tests provoked South Korea to reverse a previous policy and agree to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD), supplied by the United States military, to protect itself from North Korean missile attacks. The THAAD does not do a very good job at protecting South Korea from North Korean short-range missiles. But what the THAAD system does, through its sophisticated long-range "over the horizon" radar capabilities, is provide early warning to the American military of a missile attack from China.
What China would like is for America to reduce its military presence in the region, which a North Korean missile test would certainly make less likely. Therefore, the Chinese are very unhappy with North Korea's threats.
What the Chinese say they would like is for the North Koreans, the South Koreans and the US to talk, and for everything to settle down, so that American forces can start withdrawing from the region. That's a nice Chinese dream, but it's very unlikely to occur.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(15-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Protesters renew their 'five demands, not one less' chants
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Hong Kongers filled the streets on Sunday with a massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration. According to organizers, the size of the protest was 800,000, although the police estimated 300,000. Unlike other recent protests, the crowd was filled with children and families, and there was almost no violence.
In previous recent demonstrations, protesters have vandalized public buildings belonging to the government or private buildings belonging to mainland businesses. The also blocked streets and shut down the public transit system. This has had the effect, since the protests began six months ago, of bringing Hong Kong's economy to its knees, as the protests became more violent each week.
However, Sunday's protests were like the initial peaceful demonstrations six months ago. Furthermore, activists had called for a citywide strike on Monday, but no such strike occurred.
Pro-democracy demonstrators were apparently placated by the November 24 local council elections, where pro-democracy candidates won a stunning landslide victory, as summarized by the chart above. More than half of the 452 seats switched from pro-Beijing to pro-democracy, giving pro-democratic forces control of 17 out of 18 district councils. The election also saw record high voter turnout with 4.1 million registered voters, a 71% increase since the last election cycle in 2015.
While Sunday's protests were peaceful, it was undoubtedly infuriating to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials in Beijing that many protesters were waving US flags and singing "Glory to Hong Kong."
The original protests were triggered by a proposed "extradition bill" that would have allowed any Hong Kong citizens accused of a crime to be extradited to China with no hearing, where they would be at the complete mercy of the CCP, and its record of torture and indefinite jailing for anything deemed to be political opposition to the CCP.
Hong Kong's leader, Carrie Lam, took several months to agree to withdraw the extradition bill. Some people believe that if she had taken that step immediately, then the protests would have fizzled. But the long delays triggered increasingly strident demands, and the number of demands increased to five.
The five demands are as follows: withdraw the extradition bill completely (this has been accomplished); do not classify past demonstrations as riots; drop all charges against those arrested in relation to the protests; set up an independent commission to investigate the use of force by the police; and call for fully democratic elections for the Legislative Council and the chief executive.
The CCP will never agree to the last two of the demands. If the CCP and Carrie Lam were smart, they would find a way to agree to the second and third demands, as a way of reducing tensions. But as I've said many times, the CCP leaders do one stupid thing after another, and you can be sure that whatever they do in Hong Kong will only make things worse.
Instead, according to news reports, Carrie Lam has found the solution: To increase patriotic education in schools, so that protesters will understand the advantages of Communism.
The fact that CCP leaders even think that this kind of reeducation program could ever work explains how stupid CCP officials are, and why they consistently get everything wrong. This is such an incredibly stupid idea, that only the CCP would think of it. It's like trying to end race riots in the United States by teaching black children in schools how to be more white.
CCP officials do not view "democracy" as a form of government. They view it as an ideology that is opposed to the communist ideology and can bring down the CCP, just as it brought down the Soviet Communist Party in 1991. The CCP view is that they must crush the democracy ideology, or the democracy ideology will crush them.
After the 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests and the subsequent massacres of thousands of college students by security police, the CCP saw that the use of the democracy "ideology" brought about the 1991 collapse of Soviet communism, and they realized that it might happen to them.
In the 1990s, the CCP launched the Patriotic Education Campaign, a nationalistic propaganda campaign designed to teach school students to reject the "democracy" ideology, and instead to adopt a highly vitriolic form of anti-Japan hatred as the ideology replacing the democracy ideology. As I explained in detail in my book, "War between China and Japan," this vitriolic and nationalistic anti-Japan hate campaign, which has continued to today, is the crucible of the coming war between China and Japan.
At the same time in the 1990s, Socialism with Chinese Characteristics began to take on a whole new and far darker and more sinister meaning. Any criticism of the CCP leadership could lead to torture, rape and jailing. Any serious adoption of any religious "ideology" (Christianity, Buddhism, Islam, Daoism) would be treated the same way.
So today, the CCP sees the hated democracy "ideology" rapidly gaining ground in Hong Kong and Taiwan. However, they don't know what to do about it since, as stupid as the CCP leaders are, even they realize that a violent response in Hong Kong could trigger a widespread rebellion among Cantonese speakers in southern China, and a military invasion of Taiwan would trigger a war with the United States that they're not yet fully prepared for.
So the peaceful demonstrations this weeked were a welcome respite from the violence, and most people hope that the peace will last a while. However, 2020 promises to be a time of renewed violence in Hong Kong, and the CCP will be running out of options.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(9-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Civilians attack UN peacekeeping missions in DR Congo for failure to protect them
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Measles is spreading like wildfire in the Democratic Republic of Congo (CRC). It's believed that 250,000 people have been infected this year alone, more than three times the number in all of 2018, and has spread to all 26 provinces of the country.
More than 5,000 people have been killed. Of those, 4,500 are children.
Measles can be controlled with vaccines, but DRC has a weak health infrastructure, regional wars, escalating violence, and widespread suspicion of health workers. There have been more than 300 attacks on health care facilities in the country this year, with six deaths.
There's a shortage of vaccines, so not all parents who want their children vaccinated can obtain them. Many people live in hard to reach rural areas. Furthermore children require two vaccine jabs to be protected against measles, making the vaccination problem even more difficult.
Although DRC has the biggest measles outbreak in the world today, they are far from alone. There are large measles outbreaks in other countries, particularly in Africa, eastern Mediterranean, and eastern Europe.
Even Western countries in Europe and North America are seeing surges in measles cases. This is blamed on parents in political "anti-vaxxer" movements who refuse to allow their children to be vaccinated. This puts the children and the entire community at risk of measles.
In the past couple of months, the Ebola outbreak in North Kivu province in eastern DRC had appeared to be well-contained, as the number of new cases has been falling substantially. Health workers have achieved this by means of aggressive contract tracing of new cases, followed by providing vaccines to people considered vulnerable.
At the beginning of this year, it appeared that Ebola would continue to spread exponentially faster, but since then, the World Health Organization has effectively used new vaccines that have become available to slow the spread considerably.
However, North Kivu is still a tribal war zone, where a Uganda-based group of rebels known as "Allied Democratic Forces" (ADF) have been fighting in eastern DRC against the Congolese army and other rebel groups, to take advantage of the rich mineral resources of the region.
ADF militias and Maï-Maï militias have been attacking Ebola health centers, forcing the World Health Organization (WHO) to close some of them down. This has raised fears that Ebola will once again begin to spread.
As a separate issue, civilian protesters stormed the facilities of the UN peacekeeping mission in Congo (MONUSCO). MONUSCO is the largest UN peacekeeping force in the world, with some 15,000 personnel, but has failed to bring peace. The attackers were protesting the fact that MONUSCO had failed to protect them from violence, after ADF terrorists had killed eight civilians last weekend.
Monusco was formed in 1999, and has been so unsuccessful at keeping peace that there are actually calls for it to be disbanded.
A lot of people like peacekeeping forces, even when they do nothing to keep the peace. The UN likes them, because they allow the UN to collect money from Western countries to pay for them. They use that money to increase the sizes of their budgets and staffs. Most of the money is supposed to pay for the soldiers who are sent by member countries to form the peacekeeping operation. However, the governments of the member countries confiscate the salary money, so little of it reaches the peacekeeping soldiers. So a lot of people are making money from peacekeeping operations, even when they do not keep the peace, which is why it's almost impossible to end a peacekeeping operation.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(2-Dec-2019)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Web Log Summary - 2020
Web Log Summary - 2019
Web Log Summary - 2018
Web Log Summary - 2017
Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004
Web Log - December, 2020
Web Log - November, 2020
Web Log - October, 2020
Web Log - September, 2020
Web Log - August, 2020
Web Log - July, 2020
Web Log - June, 2020
Web Log - May, 2020
Web Log - April, 2020
Web Log - March, 2020
Web Log - February, 2020
Web Log - January, 2020
Web Log - December, 2019
Web Log - November, 2019
Web Log - October, 2019
Web Log - September, 2019
Web Log - August, 2019
Web Log - July, 2019
Web Log - June, 2019
Web Log - May, 2019
Web Log - April, 2019
Web Log - March, 2019
Web Log - February, 2019
Web Log - January, 2019
Web Log - December, 2018
Web Log - November, 2018
Web Log - October, 2018
Web Log - September, 2018
Web Log - August, 2018
Web Log - July, 2018
Web Log - June, 2018
Web Log - May, 2018
Web Log - April, 2018
Web Log - March, 2018
Web Log - February, 2018
Web Log - January, 2018
Web Log - December, 2017
Web Log - November, 2017
Web Log - October, 2017
Web Log - September, 2017
Web Log - August, 2017
Web Log - July, 2017
Web Log - June, 2017
Web Log - May, 2017
Web Log - April, 2017
Web Log - March, 2017
Web Log - February, 2017
Web Log - January, 2017
Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004