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The Mideast peace process fantasy
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Here we go again.
President Donald Trump, in a joint White House celebration with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced a new Mideast peace plan.
I've seen how this works too many times. International politicians pressure the United States president to come up with a peace plan, saying that there will never be peace in the Mideast without White House "leadership." But as soon as the president offers a peace plan, those same international politicians slam the plan to make sure it's never implemented.
So Trump's 181 page Mideast peace plan has the following features:
In May 2017, Trump met with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, and they agreed to work together to reach a historic peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians. ( "4-May-17 World View -- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks")
At the time, Trump said, "I look forward to welcoming [Abbas] back as a great marker of progress and, ultimately, toward the signing of a document with the Israelis and with Israel toward peace. We want to create peace between Israel and the Palestinians. We will get it done."
Abbas responded as follows: "Mr. President, we believe that we are capable and able to bring about success to our efforts because, Mr. President, you have the determination and you have the desire to see it become to fruition and to become successful. And we, Mr. President, inshallah, God willing, we are coming into a new opportunity, a new horizon that would enable us to bring about peace in that regard. ... Mr. President, it’s about time for Israel to end its occupation of our people and of our land after 50 years. We are the only remaining people in the world that still live under occupation."
It was pretty clear from just those two statements that it was never going to work. Now that Trump's peace agreement was being announced, Abbas refused to attend the ceremony.
His statement this time was far more colorful: "Trump is a dog and the son of a dog. They called me from Washington, and I did not pick up the phone. ... I said no, and I will continue to say no."
However, ambassadors from three Arab countries -- Oman, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- did show up at the meeting.
The UAE ambassador tweeted that the UAE believes Palestinians and Israelis can achieve lasting peace and genuine coexistence with the support of the international community.
Britain's Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said,"This is clearly a serious proposal, reflecting extensive time and effort. Only the leaders of Israel and the Palestinian territories can determine whether these proposals can meet the needs and aspirations of the people they represent."
However, Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhr said, "Trump's statement about Jerusalem is nonsense and Jerusalem will always be a land for the Palestinians ... The Palestinians will confront this deal and Jerusalem will remain a Palestinian land."
Israel's Security Minister Naftali Bennett said in response to the plan, "We will not allow for Israel, under any circumstances, to recognize a Palestinian state."
I heard several Palestinian protests complain particularly about the tunnels and bridges that are supposed to connect the two Palestinian territories, saying that these were extremely offensive.
Later, Mahmoud Abbas said, "After the nonsense that we heard today we say a thousand no’s to the Deal of The Century."
There's no way that this Rube Goldberg peace proposal is going to survive.
As I wrote in my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1, 2003, when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," which described the details of a two-state solution, that it will never happen. Generational Dynamics predicts that the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
According to the CIA World Factbook, the average age of the population in Gaza is 18, and in the West Bank is 21. (In America it's 38, in Germany 46, in Japan 47.) Most of the population in the Palestinian territories are children -- often children with guns. They call themselves the "Oslo Generation," because they were born after the 1993 Oslo peace accords that were supposed to bring peace to the Mideast, but have accomplished nothing. (Paragraph modified, 29-Jan)
Now think of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), who is 29 years old, who says one incredibly idiotic thing after another every day, and yet is effectively running the Democratic Party.
The point is that even if Mahmoud Abbas and other regional Arab leaders wanted to agree to Trump's peace plan, they wouldn't be supported by Oslo Generation Palestinians on the street.
This is the fallacy the media and politicians all make. They assume that the leader of a country can make a decision, and everyone will follow.
As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. So in this case, the even if Abbas signed this peace deal, it would be meaningless.
The whole idea of a "Mideast peace process" and a "two-state solution" is a complete fantasy. It's never going to happen.
As long-time readers know, the Generational Dynamics prediction is that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews vs Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. The exact scenario can't be predicted, but tensions across the Mideast continue to grow. The death of 84 year old Mahmoud Abbas would be very significant.
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(29-Jan-2020)
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China's coronavirus spreads across China and around the world
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The number of confirmed cases of China's coronavirus has been increasing every hour. It started weeks ago in the city of Wuhan in China's Hubei province, apparently in a meat market where the virus jumped from animals to humans. Since then, the virus has demonstrated the ability to pass from human to human.
It's not yet really known how dangerous the virus is, or whether it's more dangerous than the ordinary flu. It's in the class of diseases known as "coronavirus." The common cold is a coronavirus. SARS, the extremely dangerous disease that came from China, is also a coronavirus.
At this time (Friday evening ET), there are currently 1,320 confirmed cases worldwide, including 41 fatalities. It has spread to every province of China, and there are small numbers of cases in Thailand, Singapore, France, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Nepal and the United States.
This is the worst possible time for a pandemic of this kind to occur in China. This is the time of the Lunar New Year celebrations, where millions of people take planes, trains and buses to return home to see their families for the first time in a year.
China has been trying to contain the spread, by canceling many Lunar New Year celebrations, in Beijing and elsewhere, even closing Shanghai Disneyland and part of the Great Wall of China. There are confirmed cases in nearly every province of China. 14 cities across Hubei province have been "locked down," meaning that roads have been closed and buses, trains and planes are no longer running.
When SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) broke out in 2002 in mainland China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) kept it secret for months, and the world only found out about it when it spread to Hong Kong, and from there to other countries. The CCP claims to have learned its lesson from that disaster, and has been more open about providing DNA sequences and virus samples to researchers in other countries. However, the CCP is still censoring most information about it, including details of its incubation period, how quickly it spreads, and how long it takes to recover. As usual, the CCP harshly censors anyone that criticizes the government.
As I wrote my book "War between China and Japan - Why America must be prepared," it was clear that China has a highly racist view of themselves and the world that goes back millennia. We American people do not view ourselves as unique, as America itself is a "melting pot" of many nations and cultures. Instead, Americans view themselves as ordinary people who were lucky enough to be born in the greatest country in history.
That's not how the Chinese have viewed themselves for millennia. In the highly racist Chinese view, the universe is in three layers. The highest layer is the Kingdom of Heaven, where the gods live. The middle layer is the Middle Kingdom, where all the Chinese people live -- the Master Race, yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin. The bottom layer is where you and I live -- the Barbarians, who must always be subservient vassals to the Chinese, must pay tribute and acknowledge the superiority of the Chinese.
This highly racist and arbitrary view results in a society which is ruled by corruption, bribery, torture, and execution. And the leader of this society is said to be have the Mandate of Heaven. If he does not follow Confucian principles, if he does not meet the needs of his people, then he can lose the Mandate of Heaven. After that, the leader can only continue to lead by means of beatings, torture, rape, and murder, and that's what's been happening in China to an increasing degree for the last 20 years.
But now Xi Jinping has suffered so many recent setbacks that he may actually be in danger of being thrown out. Here are some of them:
It's becoming increasingly clear that Xi Jinping is failing, and has had one failed policy after another.
However, I did hear a brief report on TV that some Chinese social media are saying that the coronavirus was planted by the United States as biological warfare.
As I've said many times, the CCP thugs have a record of doing one incredibly stupid thing after another. I don't know what the CCP thugs will do about the coronavirus crisis or the situations in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan, but I can say with certainty that whatever they do, it will make the situation worse.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/
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(25-Jan-2020)
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Multi-sectarian rioters protest 'confessional' government
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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After months of generally peaceful protests that began on October 17 when the government announced tax increases, on Saturday protesters began throwing rocks, molotov coctails, fireworks and large plant pots at police blocking the road to the parliament building in Lebanon's capital city Beirut. Other protesters blocked roads and crippled the city.
The Internal Security Forces tweeted: "A direct and violent confrontation is taking place with anti-riot police at one of the entrances to parliament. We ask peaceful protesters to keep away from the site of the rioting for their safety."
By the end of the day, the Red Cross reported 80 wounded were taken to the hospital, while 140 were treated on site.
Lebanon's banking system is near collapse as the country runs out of dollars, and Lebanon's pound currency has lost 60% of its value. Banks are setting a withdrawal limit of around $200 per month, and people are unable to pay their bills. There are fears that the economy will collapse completely.
There have been street protests in Lebanon in the past, but they've always been highly sectarian protests by people in just one religious bloc -- Sunnis, Shias or Christians.
But these new protests are cutting across all sectarian blocs. The massive protests began after the new taxes were announced on October 17, and by October 29 the entire government collapsed, leaving the country to be run by a caretaker government since then.
Lebanon (like Iraq) has been governed by a "confessional system of government," where power is divided based on sectarian affiliation or confession. The confessional form of government has worked fairly well in both Iraq and Lebanon, because it's prevented the kind of massive violence that's been occurring in Iran and Syria.
However, the confessional form of government has failed in a diffeent way. Lebanon's constitution requires that the three main offices be occupied by specific sectarian groups:
Because each sect has complete control of one portion of the government, there are no checks and balances and corruption is rampant, with the leaders of each sect able to steal as much money as they like from their own part of the government. Since the government collapsed on October 29, the three sects have been fighting among themselves and have been unable to form a new government.
So the protesters have been getting increasingly furious. The economy gets worse every day, and the people see the sectarian government leaders as massively corrupt because each one refuses to give up any power to the others, and so the country is at a stalemate.
The World Bank has warned that the poverty rate in Lebanon could rise from a third to a half of the population if the political crisis is not remedied fast.
Rioters have also been protesting the influence of Iran. The most powerful sect has been the Shia Muslim sect, led by Iran's puppet Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
As long as Iran was paying Hezbollah enough money, there was little complaint in Lebanon. But thanks to Iran's own economic crisis, caused in part by US sanctions, Iran has less money to pay to Hezbollah. Hezbollah for five years has also yielded to Iran's demands to send troops to fight alongside Bashar al-Assad's failing army in Syria, and indeed Syria's army would have collapsed years ago except for support from Russia and Hezbollah. But all that has taken an enormous economic toll on Lebanon.
So rioters in Lebanon are demanding an end to Iran's influence, and that would mean a big reduction in Hezbollah's influence.
Lebanon, Iraq and Iran are all in a generational Awakening era, like America and Europe in the 1960s-70s. Iraq's government and Lebanon's government are both in collapse, and Iran's government is dealing with its own massive anti-government protests.
Violence has been growing in all three countries, and beatings and violence by police is growing. There's no resolution in sight in any of these three countries. With all three governments in turmoil, the chaos is not going to end any time soon, and the street violence is liable to get worse, as it did in America and Europe in the 1960s-70s.
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(19-Jan-2020)
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Cracking down on Amazon, Walmart, Alibaba and Shopify
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There are two ways to look at the US-China Phase I trade deal that was signed in Washington on Wednesday.
One way is that is that it accomplished so little that it's nothing more than a temporary ceasefire in the US-China trade war.
The other way is that it was a good first step and accomplished some things in forcing China to open up its markets, but that there's a long way to go in Phase II.
Let's start with the basics: As I've said many times in the past, North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons and missiles, no matter what Trump does, and China will not give up stealing intellectual property and trade secrets, no matter what Trump does. Trump knows that too. China's criminal activities are deeply embedded in China's culture, which considers Americans to be barbarians, and they could never be resolved without a war. All that Donald Trump can do in negotiations is to postpone the worst effects of these Chinese and North Korean policies, and do everything possible to protect the United States and the West from the inevitable World War III that China and North Korea are preparing against Japan, Taiwan and the United States.
Donald Trump said that he is not removing any of the existing tariffs or sanctions on China at this time, because he needs them in place "as cards" to negotiate with in Phase II, but they will all be removed at the successful completion of Phase II. Negotiations for Phase II will not begin until after the November elections.
Peter Navarro is President Trump's Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. He's considered to be a "hardliner" on the China negotiations. He appeared on television in August, and recited a list of seven structural issues in China's economy that have to be resolved by trade negotiations:
In a television interview on Wednesday, Navarro reviewed the US-China agreement, in view of the above list of China's "seven deadly sins." According to Navarro, America got the following in the agreement:
These are all nice promises, but China has always made nice promises, and then simply ignored them the day after they were made. Navarro claims that this time it's different, because there's an enforcement mechanism:
"The judge, jury and executioner is on our side of the fence. This is not WTO (World Trade Organization) rules where you take three years and get nowhere. This deal calls for a 90 day clock, controlled by [U.S. Trade Representative Robert] Lighthizer. If there's an issue, it comes to him, and he negotiates with this counterpart in China. If we don't get satisfaction, we unilaterally have the authority to take proportionate measures."
Whether you believe that this enforcement mechanism will make a difference is up to you.
According to Navarro, that was a "solid Phase I," and some things have been left for Phase II:
Navarro said that the US will crack down on companies like Amazon, Walmart, Alibaba and Shopify who have served as "facilitators" for the import of contraband goods from China.
Navarro said that a million packages come into New York's Kennedy airport every day. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency ran a project called Operation Megaflex, which sampled thousands of these packages coming in from China, and found that 15% of them contained contraband. Half of them are counterfeits, and the other half are controlled substances, like fentynol, and also gun parts, and fake drivers licenses.
Navarro expects China to police these operations, but on the American side, distribution companies that make a great deal of money by importing and selling this contraband will also have to police them, or will face civil fines or penalties or loss of import licenses.
According to analysts, the Chinese are breathing a sigh of relief because, even though the existing tariffs will not be lifted, this agreement means that any new tariffs will be postponed. And since Phase II negotiations won't even begin until after the November election, the new tariffs will be postponed indefinitely.
As I've described in the past, Trump administration has placed additional restrictions on Huawei to slow down the company's rapid takeover of portions of the internet. Huawei is heavily subsidized by China's government to undersell foreign competitors with routers and other networking equipment that many people (including me) believe contain "backdoors" allowing China's military to control those devices at any time. In fact, in 2017, China passed a National Intelligence Law that compels every Chinese company to take exactly those kinds of steps. Trump's tariffs have affected not only Huawei, but also the supply chains of many military-related firms in China. Obviously, these steps can slow down China's military, but not stop it.
Trump's restrictions on trade with America has been a benefit to China's neighbors, with whom Chinese firms are actively seeking to trade. This has resulted unexpectedly in quick agreement on a free trade agreement for Asian nations, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
The participants in RCEP are the ten members of the the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) -- Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- plus five additional nations -- Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, with India eventually deciding not to participate.
The RCEP trade agreements will fill any holes left by the US-China trade tariffs. China's military will be slowed down by the tariffs, but will not be stopped.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/
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(17-Jan-2020)
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Iran's 'Vietcong Tet Offensive'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Three days ago, overjoyed Iranian officials were watching as millions of Iranians were in the streets for the funeral of Iran's Gen. Qassim Soleimani, who had been killed by an American airstrike. Iranian officials had thought that, finally!, the Iranian people were returning to their support the government. As I pointed out in my daily commentary in the Generational Dynamics forum, this was mostly a show put on by Iran, and it wouldn't last.
Now the situation has flipped back again. Iranians, who had believed the government's story that they were winning the war in Iraq against the Americans, now learn that everything that government has told them was a lie and cover-up, and that the only result of Iran's missile attack on Americans was not dead Americans, as the government had claimed, but hundreds of dead Iranians. There are growing anti-government demonstrations. The new demonstrations are relatively small, but they're expected to grow.
For any number of reasons, the decision on Saturday by the government of Iran to admit to shooting down a Ukrainian airlines PS752 passenger plane with a missile, killing all 176 people aboard, could turn out to be the most historically consequential decision of Iran's experiment with a government of Islamic Shia terror and dictatorship that was created by the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
For several days, the government made increasingly outlandish lies to defer blame for shooting down the passenger plane. They bulldozed the crash site to hide the evidence. They refused to allow international experts to examine the planes "black boxes." They blamed the crash on a mechanical error, and they said that the plane has suddenly changed direction ominously -- both claims that Iranian video showed were untrue. All this was a lie, and the government knew it was a lie from the very beginning. Iranians listening to the BBC heard that the US, Canada and Ukraine said they had evidence to prove that Iran had shot it down with a missile, but the government of Iran said that the BBC reports were "fake news," part of the usual anti-Iran plot by the and Israel.
Finally, on Saturday, Iran admitted shooting it down, saying that doing so was a "disastrous mistake." General Hossein Salami said, "I swear to almighty god that I wished I were in that plane and had crashed with them and had burned but had not witnessed this tragic incident."
So, why did Iran do a U-turn and admit to shooting it down?
The narrative in the media today is that Iran was forced to do so by the conclusive evidence that had been collected and presented by the United States, Canada, Ukraine, and other sources.
But if you believe that, then you also have to explain why the Russians have never admitted shooting down the Malaysian Airlines MH17 passenger plane over Ukraine in July 2014, but instead have made one ridiculous claim after another, for example saying that the US had purposely shot it down to embarrass Russia. Since then, there have been numerous deep investigations that prove conclusively that MH17 was shot down by the Russians in eastern Ukraine, using a Russian Buk missile. But Russia continues to make ridiculous excuses.
So if Iran was forced to admit its "disastrous mistake" after only five days, then how come Russia still makes one ridiculous claim after another for five years, and still refuses to admit its own mistake? What's the difference between Russia and Iran?
There could be several reasons, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the most obvious reason is that Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and with large and growing younger generations born since the Islamic Revolution, and these younger generations are generally pro-Western and pro-American. These younger generations are coming to power in the government, and they would have pressured their bosses in the government to tell the truth. The government was also pressured by the large anti-government student protests, which make Iran look every day more and more like America in the 1960s and 1970s.
The demostrators are protesting that the government was incompetent because it kept Tehran airport open at the same time that the armed forces were launching missiles at American targets in Iraq. In fact, officials in many countries have been highly critical of Iran for this. Many have expressed incredulity that Iran would keep Tehran's airport open in what is essentially a war zone. The passenger plane that was shot down had just taken off from the airport, and the Revolutionary Guide forces mistook it for an American missile.
But the main criticisms of the government were, of course, that the government lied for three days, not only denying that an Iranian missile had shot down the plane, but also that accusing Western governments and Western media of "fake news" in claiming that a missile had shot down the plane.
Protesters point out that the government was claiming that the IRGC missile attack on Americans in Iraq would achieve victory by driving the Americans out, but all it accomplished was getting hundreds of Iranians killed.
This has dealt a major blow to the government's credibility. Iran's government has always blamed every problem on the United States and Israel, even claiming that peaceful protesters were terrorists funded by the US. The claims always lacked credibility, but now protesters will claim that every such claim was a lie. One of the chants on Sunday was, "They’re lying when they say it’s America. Our enemy is right here."
I heard one Tehran apologist on the BBC claim that the loss of credibility was only a small, temporary blip, but if Iranian officials actually believe that, then they're sadly delusional.
The analogous event during America's last Awakening era, in the 1960s, was the "Vietcong Tet Offensive." This was a massive military counterattack by North Vietnam's army in cities and villages across the entire country, beginning in January 1968. It took weeks for the American and South Vietnam forces to recapture the cities. The Tet Offensive was a military disaster for the Vietcong and the North Vietnam forces.
But it was political victory that won the war by turning Americans against the war. Americans had been told that the war was nearly won, and that "we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel," but the Tet Offensive caused Americans, especially students, to believe those were all lies.
The American government never recovered. President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would have to step down and not run for reelection. Richard Nixon became president, but he was relentless accused of lying about everything. The protests against Nixon became worse and worse, and eventually Nixon was forced to resign, under threat of impeachment.
So that's the kind of thing that Iran's government is going to be facing from now on. Iran's anti-government protests will take on new energy following the recent disaster.
Does this mean "regime change" in Iran? I've been writing for years that there will be "regime change" in Iran as it's Awakening era climax, but it's impossible to predict the timing or scenario.
Last week's events have been so politically disastrous for Iran, that they may at least trigger some resignations and firings in the regime. There's a major parliamentary election Iran next month, and that may bring some changes. But as Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei becomes increasingly embattled, a more drastic change may occur, just as happened with Johnson and Nixon in America.
The complexity of the current situation in Iran and Iraq provides me with the opportunity to write a deeper generational analysis.
The last week has been fairly dramatic for me personally, because the article that I posted on Friday evening stated unequivocally, based on a generational analysis of Iran and Iraq, that there would be NO WAR with Iran. (See "4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination")
This was at a time when the media was filled with analysts almost unanimously predicting World War III, and left-wing media and politicians were saying things like, "I can't see how a war can be avoided." These idiots have now all been proven wrong, and Generational Dynamics has, as usual, been proven right.
I reached my conclusion based on Iran's history, dating back at least to Iran's disastrous 1800s border wars. Whenever I make a prediction like this, I always take a deep breath and wonder whether this will finally be the time that I'm wrong, and I look like an idiot. Fortunately for me and for Generational Dynamics, that didn't happen this time, and in fact has never happened in hundreds of such predictions over the years, although this was one of the most dramatic. What did happen in Iran is completely in line with the generational analysis I posted. So it's been a relief for the world, and also for me personally.
One thing that I've learned repeatedly is that the experts in Washington have no clue what's going on in the world. As I've mentioned several times in my articles, I learned this in 2006 when Congressional Quarterly and the London Times did a survey of Mideast "experts," many with years of experience, and found out that they didn't know the answers to the simplest questions. ( "Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans")
One of things that the experts didn't know was whether al-Qaeda was a Sunni or Shia organization. Think about that. We had people -- Republicans and Democrats -- making foreign policy who were so ignorant and stupid that they couldn't answer the simplest questions about the subject they were supposed to be experts on. (And recall that Pelosi famously declared that al-Qaeda was not in Iraq. Lol.)
Today's politicians and media are obviously just as ignorant, which is obvious every time they open their mouths. I've previously singled out the Connecticut senator Chris Murphy for criticism because al-Jazeera has run video from him several times, and referred to him as an "expert." He's been in Congress since 2007 and on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee since 2013, so he should know what's going on. And yet, he says the most incredibly stupid things. My theory is that the reason that al-Jazeera runs video from him and others like him is that they want to show to their Arab audience how stupid the Americans are.
The generational analysis I'm about to give is not rocket science, but it's beyond the mental capacity of almost everyone, since it requires the ability to understand percentages and to do math at least the fourth grade level, and most people cannot do fourth grade math. Say what you want about Boomers, but we knew how to do percentages. But in the past few decades, SAT scores have been falling, and college graduates are so dumb, they don't even know how to read a map or understand historical concepts. If you listen to many politicians, reporters and analysts today talk about the economy and Socialism, you quickly realize that they're too dumb to even do second grade arithmetic.
It's obvious that none of the experts on tv has any idea of what's going on in Iran, because they don't have the mental capacity to understand it. Also, they know absolutely nothing about Iran's history, because that's also beyond their mental capacity.
So let's take a look at what you'd have to know if you want to understand Iran today. You may wish to have a pencil and paper handy to take notes.
So if you understand the above, they you understand why my unequivocal prediction that there would NOT be a war with Iran turned out to be true, while the idiots on TV and in the media who were predicting WW III really are idiots.
And quite seriously, Dear Reader, if you listen to these guys in the mainstream media, you should understand that they literally don't have a clue about anything. They probably couldn't find Iran on a map, and they certainly know nothing about Iran's history. You might as well get your news from the Saturday morning cartoon shows.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/
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Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(13-Jan-2020)
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Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Taiwan's presidential election occurs on Saturday. The voting has already begun at the time I'm writing this article (Friday evening ET), and the voting may be over by the time you read this.
The election results are almost certain to be very bad news for the leaders of Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is almost certain that the current president Tsai Ing-wen will be reelected. Tsai is leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors independence of Taiwan from China.
China has repeatedly threatened military action to invade Taiwan and annex it to China. Indeed, my book "War Between China and Japan - why the US must be prepared" contains a detailed historical analysis of China's current plans to invade Japan to get vengeance for World War II, and to invade Taiwan to annex it.
In 2005, China passed an "Anti-Secession Law" that stated that China will take military action in response to anything that even hints at independence:
"Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful re-unification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Passage of this law in China in 2005 provoked massive riots and anti-China demonstrations in Taiwan.
Tsai's chief opponent is Han Kuo-yu of the opposition Kuomintang Party, which is the modern day descendant of the Nationalist Party formed by Chiang Kai-shek in the 1920s. Mao Zedong's Communist Revolution civil war (1934-49), split northern China from Southern China. Chiang lost militarily to Mao, and many people in southern China fled to Hong Kong, which was then a British colony, and from there to Formosa and Taiwan. Chiang's Kuomintang party maintained iron rule in Taiwan until the 1990s, when the Taiwan independence movement led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) began to rise, especially after the Taiwanese people watched the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in horror. Tsai has one more opponent, James Soong Chu-yu, chairman of the smaller People First Party.
The victory by Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP in January 2016 was considered historic because it was a large, decisive victory, and so was a major setback for the CCP.
However, the DPP lost badly in local elections in 2018, and might well be on her way to losing the current presidential election, if it were not for the chaos in Hong Kong from pro-democracy protests that began in June of last year.
Hong Kong was a British colony prior to 1997, and Taiwan was a Japanese colony prior to the end of World War II, but Hong Kong and Taiwan see themselves as very close. [DELETED: They both favor the Cantonese dialect of the Chinese language over the Mandarin dialect favored by the CCP.] And they both favor freedom and democracy, which the CCP considers to be a Western plot to overthrow the CCP. They're still in shock from 1991 when a pro-democracy movement in the Soviet Union caused the Russian Communist Party to collapse. (Paragraph corrected: Most Taiwanese people speak the Mandarin and Taiwanese dialects. 11-Jan)
The CCP has been trying to convince the people of Taiwan to adopt the supposedly wonderful "one country, two systems" formula used in Hong Kong. The argument appeared to be winning until last year, when it became clear that the CCP was violating the agreement in Hong Kong, with acts that led to the massive street protests. It became clear to the Taiwan people that "one country, two systems" would just lead to putting the island in control of the brutal, violent CCP dictatorship.
A number of analysts have been suggesting that things have calmed down in Hong Kong because of the approaching Taiwan election, since the pro-democracy students in Hong Kong are supporting the re-election of Tsai Ing-wen. This follows a historic victory by pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong in November. ( "25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray")
If this is true, then it means that Saturday's election in Taiwan, if the DPP wins as expected, has the potential to be extremely significant. Two major pro-democracy elections at nearly the same time in Hong Kong and Taiwan may throw the CCP thugs into a panic. This could be even worse if, once the Taiwan election is over, Hong Kong returns to extreme chaos again in the weeks to come.
The CCP leaders in Beijing are hoping that if they remain calm, then the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong will fizzle, and the pro-independence movement in Taiwan will die. As I've said many times, the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong cannot end, because all young people in Hong Kong know that if they marry and bring children into the world, then the children will be under the control of the brutal, violent CCP dictatorship in 2047. The same would happen in Taiwan.
If the Taiwan election goes as expected, then the CCP leaders in Beijing are going to be looking ahead to a long 12 months in 2020 where the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and the pro-independence movement in Taiwan will grow. This isn't going to change, no matter how much the CCP thugs pretend to be "nice."
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/
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(11-Jan-2020)
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Iran's disastrous miscalculation after 40 years of war
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Friday, BBC reporter Rebecca Kesby interviewed Ghanbar Naderi, political editor for Tehran-based Kayhan International newspaper. During the course of the interview, the following exchange occurred:
Rebecca Kesby: "You say this is uncharted territory. But surely the Iranian authorities would have been prepared for this. He [Qassim Soleimani] must have known himself that he was a target."Ghanbar Naderi: "Rebecca, nobody took president Trump seriously. They never thought that when he said he threatened Iran he was going to make good on his threatened promises, but that's exactly what he did. And they were all caught off guard. They never expected General Soleimani to be assassinated in Iraq."
In my previous article, I included a narrative of Iran's actions leading up to Iran's attack on the US embassy in Baghdad. ( "1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters")
As I explained in that article, this was right out of Iran's playbook, ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution civil war, in which they were propelled to success by the "American Hostage Crisis," taking 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days. Since then, the hardline government in Iran has been trying to duplicate that success although, as I've explained many, many times over the years, what works in a generational Crisis era in 1979 will not work in a generational Awakening era today.
Iran's government is in serious trouble. The economy is crippled, and most young Iranians blame that on the foreign military adventures by the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), headed by General Qassim Soleimani. There have been months of massive anti-Iran riots and demonstrations in both Iraq and Iran, and in Iran, Soleimani has overseen the torture, rape, jailing and slaughter of thousands of peaceful anti-government protesters in Iran. So the takeover of the Baghdad embassy was a desperate attempt to repeat the 1979 success, and unite the country against America.
But the takeover was a flop from the start. Some fires were set and some property was damaged, but it fizzled quickly, and within 24 hours the Iraqi armed forces were guarding the US embassy from the Iran-backed attackers. In my last article, I said that this would be the most likely outcome, during a generational Awakening era.
So Iran's entire US Embassy attack didn't last 444 days, but was a failure and a flop within 24 hours.
But it quickly got a lot worse, because Iran made a disastrous miscalculation. As was revealed by the BBC interview with Ghanbar Naderi quoted above, and by other sources as well, the Iranians never took Trump seriously and never believed he would respond and kill Soleimani.
Iran had good reason to believe that Trump would not respond. For 40 years, Iran has been conducting asymmetic warfare against the US and Israel, using its proxies, like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, and its allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, to attack America and its allies with impunity, while claiming deniability.
Here's a list of some of the most recent attacks in just the last few months:
In each case the Iranians were warned not to repeat these actions, but the warnings were never followed up with actions, and the Iranians came to believe that they could continue such attacks with impunity, and Trump would never respond. As Ghanbar Naderi said, "Nobody took president Trump seriously."
Gen. Qassim Soleimani, Iran's most important military figure, and head of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed by an American airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport on Tuesday.
The strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a top Iraqi military figure, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq.
So the Iranians had every reason to believe that the attack on the US Embassy would be met with words and no action. This turned out to be a major miscalculation.
Not only was Soleimani killed, but in fact the entire operation has failed in that it did nothing to unite people the way the Iranian Hostage Crisis did in 1979. In Iraq, the anti-Iran protesters are celebrating and cheering the killing of Soleimani.
In Iran, the feelings are mixed. Soleimani was a hero of the Iran/Iraq war, which killed 1.5 million people, and Soleimani was responsible for killing many Iraqis. Like any war hero, Soleimani is revered by Iranians who lived through that war. But Soleimani has also been responsible for the torture, rape, jailing and slaughter of thousands of peaceful anti-government protesters over the years, and those victims are cheering his death.
So it's hard to see this as anything but a disaster for the Iranians. It resulted in the death of a top general, and did not achieve its objective.
However, the United States has gained quite a bit, and not just from the death of Soleimani. Donald Trump has proven (again) that he's willing to back up his words with actions, something that's almost unheard of from politicians, and that's a message that will be heard 'round the world, especially in North Korea and China.
Pundits and analysts are saying that Iran must now retaliate, and everyone is wondering how they will do that.
They could repeat some of the actions that I listed above -- attacking oil tankers, launching artillery attacks, etc. -- but that would be more of the same, and would not really impress anyone.
The speculation is that Iran will be planning something spectacular -- perhaps blowing up an American embassy or business or something in some other country, or a European target in Europe.
One analyst said that Iran would have to walk a very difficult line in such an action. It would have to be large enough to count as retaliation, but not so large that it would provoke a heavy military response by the United States, perhaps destroying Iran's oil fields.
One other problem for Iran is that various officials in other countries -- Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon -- are expressing the hope that Iran will not retaliate on the US in their countries, and any Iran attack on America in one of their countries would violate that country's sovereignty.
Some speculation is that Hezbollah will conduct some terrorist attack against America and Israel. Hezbollah is already poor, because of the anti-Iran sanctions, and crippled from having fought for years in Syria. At any rate, America and Israel claim that they are always ready for a Hezbollah terrorist attack.
Another speculation is an Iranian cyber attack. The US is under constant cyber attacks from numerous countries, so it's hard to see how this would be different.
There will NOT be a war between American and Iran.
This is despite the fact that the media have been filled with screams by hysterical, apoplectic left-wing politicians who claim that we'll be at war by Monday. Any clash would fizzle quickly. Some have said that Trump will be involved in something worse than the Vietnam war and it would last for years. Such is the idiocy of the left. They should spend more time fantasizing about girls, rather than wars.
Almost all reporters and politicians making such claims are so ignorant that they couldn't find Iran on a map, and certainly know nothing about Iran's history.
As I described in my book on Iran, Iran's 1979 civil war was triggered generationally by the 1890 Tobacco Revolt, the 1905-09 Constitutional Revolution, and the 1963 White Revolution in which Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was exiled. During all this time, the UK, Russia and later America were bogeymen that various Iranian politicians blamed for their own failures.
As I described in my book on Iran, Iran suffered major humiliating defeats in nationalistic border wars during the 1800s. As a result, Iran takes pride in saying that it no longer invades anyone, and points to the Iran/Iraq war as a case where it was invaded.
However, under the insanity of the Islamic republic, Iran now serves its nationalistic drives not by invading anyone, but by funding other groups to conduct proxy wars, as previously described.
The problem is that, just as the 1800s border wars failed spectacularly, the new proxy war strategy is also failing spectacularly. Instead of getting soldiers killed in foreign wars, Iran is spending huge amounts of money to pay other groups to get their soldiers killed in proxy wars.
This has caused enormous economic problems in Iran, and a lot of people are furious at wasting money on the foreign proxy wars. But Iran's main problem is that the older generations have a hate-America foreign policy, while the younger generations love the West and America, and the size of the younger generations is growing every day.
Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Islamic Revolution civil war, combined with the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, and now the hardline geezers are paying the price for their democide policies following both those wars. Both Iran and Iraq are close to Awakening era climax events, and looks like the most likely result will be for Iraq to eject Iran, and for Iran to eject the hardline geezers. But this is speculation, and it remains to be seen.
However, one thing is certain: Iran cannot now abandon its centuries-old policy of avoiding foreign wars and sponsoring proxy wars.
During the Iraq war, Donald Rumsfeld liked to say that "unknowns" were broken up into two groups -- "known unknowns," where you know that you don't know something, and "unknown unknowns," where you don't have any clue at all.
So it's worth pointing out that there are some known unknowns in the current situation that will reveal themselves in the next few days, and readers may wish to watch for them.
Of course, the biggest unknown is how Iran is going to retaliate. And that will probably remain unknown until it happens.
Iran's future is dominated by the fact that the old hardline geezer survivors of the 1979 civil war are dying off, and the younger generations are pro-American and pro-Western.
At some point, there will be some kind of "regime change," a generational Awakening climax where the younger generation takes control of the government. However, this "regime change" cannot be rushed by Trump or any outsider. It totally depends on internal generational forces.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
The exact scenario that will lead to this world war, but it's always possible that the current crisis will turn out to be a step on the way.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/
As I'm writing this late on Friday evening ET, there are reports over airstrikes on a convoy in northern Baghdad. The reports are confusing since some reports indicate that it isn't an American operation.
Sources:
Note: The following articles are useful for facts, but they're all pretty idiotic as far as analysis is considered, since they're almost all predicting a war, which won't happen for the reasons that I've given. Most of the analysis is written by people knowing less than nothing about the history of Iran, and probably couldn't find Iran on a map. In other words, most (though not all) of these articles are written by idiots.
Note: Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings Institute, is referenced in the Fox News article below. O'Hanlon is the only analyst that I know of in Washington who knows what he's talking about, and this has been my opinion for over a decade. He's sometimes anti-Trump or pro-Trump, but he always talks sense -- which no one else does, ever.
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see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(4-Jan-2020)
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The link to the 1979 attack on US embassy in Tehran
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Happy New Year everyone!
A detachment of 100 Marines are deploying from Kuwait to Iraq to reinforce security at the US Embassy in Baghdad. Hundreds more American soldiers are planned for deployment. The Baghdad embassy is the largest US embassy in the world.
On Tuesday, hundreds of pro-Iranian Iraqis, led by Qais al-Khazali, stormed the embassy. There was some property destruction, and some fires were set, but the embassy was not evacuated.
The US ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller, was away on a trip, but said that he is immediately returning to the embassy. According to one analyst, Behnam Ben Taleblu, "It's important for him to come back because it would be a show of force that America is not going to flinch in the face of this pressure."
The attack on the US embassy was led by Qais al-Khazali, founder of the Iran-backed Shia terrorist group Asaib Ahl al Haq militia, responsible for hostage-taking and the killing of U.S. soldiers. However, al-Khazali's terrorists have also won seats in Iraq's parliament, under pressure from Iran.
The attack was a response to US airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah terrorists that have been attacking American bases with artillery, and on Friday killed an American contractor. (See yesterday's article, "31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury")
According to al-Khazali: "Americans are unwanted in Iraq. They are a source of evil, and we want them to leave."
For months, there have been massive anti-Iran protests in Iraq, threatening to completely distabilize the Iraqi government which is mostly dominated by Iran. Leaders of these protests on Tuesday made it clear that they do not agree with al-Khazali, and that their protests had absolutely nothing to do with and had no relation to the attacks on the US Embassy.
As usual, reporters with the mainstream media stumbled over themselves in a rush to make one idiotic statement after another.
The NY Times was heavily criticized after it called the US embassy attackers "mourners" in an idiotic tweet: "Hundreds of Iraqi mourners tried to storm the United States Embassy in Baghdad, shouting 'Down, down USA!,' in response to deadly American airstrikes this week that killed 25 fighters."
Chris Murphy is a 46-year-old Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. Two months ago I heard him on giving a speech on al-Jazeera that was so idiotic that I wrote an article on the Generational Dynamics forum 23-Oct-2019 World View: The stupidest person in Congress - Chris Murphy. The occasion was a speech where Murphy blamed the deep historic split in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between Saudi Arabia and Qatar on Donald Trump. The concept is so idiotic that al-Jazeera just played the sound byte without saying a word about it.
Now Chris Murphy is blaming the attack on the US embassy in Tehran on Donald Trump: "Trump has rendered America impotent in the Middle East. No one fears us, no one listens to us."
It's not surprising that a NY Times reporter would say something so dumb as to call the Shia terrorists "mourners." Most of these reporters are kids out of college where they majored in women's studies or sociology, following years of declining SAT scores, and most of them probably couldn't find Iraq on a map.
But I'm singling Chris Murphy out because he says unbelievably stupid things even though he's been on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee for six years, and should know better. He's supposed to be an expert. He's supposed to be making American foreign policy. But he's an idiot. This goes we'll beyond ignorance into sheer stupidity.
In 2006, the Congressional Quarterly and the London Times conducted a survey of Mideast experts (Democrats and Republicans), and found that they couldn't answer simple questions like whether al-Qaeda was a Sunni or Shia organization. (As I recall, most thought they were Shia.) You know, I really do despair that the country is being run by total idiots. And the "experts" in China are also idiots. But this is why we're headed for World War III.
There's a larger picture here. There are a lot of people, Republicans and Democrats, like Murphy, who believe that if any event occurs anywhere in the world, then it occurred because either the President of the United States did something or didn't do something.
What Generational Dynamics says, and what has been proven over and over again, is that major events in the world have absolutely nothing to do with the US president except as a target of convenient political blame.
There are deep-seated hatreds in the Mideast going back millennia, and they keep bubbling to the surface every few decades in the form of a war. In particular, despite what Murphy says, the split in the GCC had nothing to do with the president, and the attack on the embassy is based on Iran-Iraq animosity unrelated to America, and closely related to the extremely bloody and vicious Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.
In yesterday's article, I wrote that it seemed likely that the attacks by Kataib Hezbollah on American bases were done purposely to bait the United States, and force a response. Since the US has no choice but to respond to a military attack on its base, especially when an American is killed, the attack achieved that purpose.
Despite all the mainstream media nonsense, Iran is deeply in trouble. In recent months, there have been thousands of anti-government protesters in Iran, and thousands of anti-Iran protesters in Iraq. This is increasingly a threat to Iran's control of Iraq's government, and even a threat to the Islamic regime inside Iran itself.
As I've said many times over the years, the standard playbook in Iran is to repeat the Iranian Hostage Crisis that took place in the context of Iran's civil war in 1979. At that time, Iranian terrorists stormed the American embassy in Tehran, making the terrorist leadership of Iran into international heroes.
The people in the leadership in 1979 were young and fun-loving, willing to slit somebody's throat on a bet. Today those leaders are very old geezers, still willing to split anyone's throat, but now desperate to hold onto power. And like a person who tries to relive the most exciting erotic experience of his childhood, the old geezers in Iran are trying to trying to relive their fun-loving attack on the US embassy in Tehran in 1979.
One of the terrorist leaders of Tuesday's attack, Abu Alaa Al-Walai, leader of Kata'ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada, tweeted the following:
"The popular mobilization forces, more accurately the mobilized people, surrounded today the embassy of evil in Baghdad and will soon surround the camps and headquarters of the U.S. killers that are spread all over the Iraqi lands. ...[The demonstrators will go further to surround] the embassies of [America's] tails and submissive countries, [including Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain].
The siege of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran back in 1979 extends to today's siege of the embassy in Baghdad, 2019. It summarizes the history: Allah will bring victory to those who support Him."
Notice two things about this statement. The obvious one is linking Tuesday's embassy attack to the 1979 embassy attack.
But also notice the reference to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. These are the members of the GCC opposing Qatar, and they're also heavily involved in opposing the Iran-supported Houthis in the Yemen War. So Tuesday's attack on the US embassy touches on many deep divisions among the Mideast countries.
So now, based on multiple analyst descriptions, we can put together a more complete narrative of Tuesday's attack on the US embassy:
Iran and Iraq are still in a generational Awakening era, and the most likely scenario now is that these anti-embassy attacks will fizzle fairly quickly.
Once again, Happy New Year everyone! However, the decade doesn't begin until 1/1/2021, so don't celebrate that yet.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
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Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(1-Jan-2020)
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