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Book on history of Vietnam nearing publication
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On Thursday, Nato defense ministers met in Brussels and decided to postpone the planned withdrawal of Nato troops, previously scheduled for May 1. The Taliban have threatened that unless the troops are withdrawn, then there will be a major escalation in the Taliban's spring fighting season, and indeed the violence is already increasing.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are poised to return to power in Afghanistan, either through negotiations or through a renewed civil war, after they had been removed from power by the United States in 2001, after the 9/11 attacks.
In 2009 I wrote, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis summarized below, that peace was impossible in Afghanistan, no matter how many troops the US and Nato sent there, which means that the Taliban would return to power if American troops withdrew. That prediction is being proven true once again, and we now appear close to a historic dénouement.
In February 2020, the Donald Trump administration reached a delusional agreement with the Taliban to bring a new era of peace to Afghanistan. America and Nato would remove all its troops by May of this year and, in return, the Taliban would stop funding al-Qaeda and would sever all its ties to al-Qaeda. The Taliban didn't promise to stop violence altogether, but did promise to "tone down" the violence.
As part of the agreement, peace talks took place between America and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. These peace talks were also completely delusional. The Afghan government weren't in the talks. And NATO, which also has troops in Afghanistan, weren't in the talks. In fact, the entire "peace process" has always been delusional.
Trump removed all but 2,500 troops from Afghanistan, and had every intention of removing all troops by May 1, but Joe Biden has promised to review that decision. But what happens now is now a Brussels decision rather than a Washington decision.
Nato still has 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, and they were scheduled to leave by May 1 as well. It's clear that's not happening, simply from the fact that they haven't yet "started packing."
BBC's Lyse Doucet interviewed Nato's Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday. Parts of what he said were hopeful but delusional, but in other parts he conceded that the hopeful parts were not going to happen.
The Taliban are claiming that they've met their commitments to reduce violence and end ties with international terrorists. However, violence has been increasing, not decreasing. Furthermore, a UN panel headed by Edmund Fitton-Brown has found that "There is still clearly a close relationship between Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We believe that the top leadership of Al Qaeda is still under Taliban protection."
The Taliban are promising a major escalation of violence unless the US and Nato troops withdraw by May 1. Since it's clear that the troops will not withdraw by May 1, it's clear that a major escalation in fighting will begin in the new spring fighting season.
Here is what Stoltenberg said in the interview (my transcription):
"So we really believe that this not the time to make a final decision, because we'd like to give every chance to the peace process, the peace talks, to succeed.Those talks are fragile and difficult, there is no easy option in Afghanistan, but there is still a possibility to reach a lasting political agreement, and all parties should engage in those talks, and the Taliban must reduce violence and must negotiate in good faith, and they must stop cooperating with the international terrorists.
And by doing that, they will also provide the platform to find a political solution.
[Question: So you may be in Afghanistan for many years go come?]
Absolutely, as I said, there are no easy options in Afghanistan, and we face many difficult dilemmas. If we decide to stay beyond May 1, then we risk more violence against our troops, and of course we risk continued long-term involvement in a very difficult operation in Afghanistan. But if we leave, we risk that Afghanistan once again becomes a safe haven for international terrorists, planning attacks against our own countries as we saw on 9/11 and also losing all the gains we made on human rights, especially for women over last years.
So this is difficult. That's the reason at this stage why we believe this is not the right time to make a final decision on whether we leave or stay, but continue to support the efforts to re-energize the peace talks.
[Question: The Taliban say they have kept their commitments. Do you believe you have solid evidence that they have not cut there ties with al-Qaeda, that there is still a risk that Afghanistan could once again be a safe haven to launch attacks against Europe and the United States?]
What we have seen is an increase in violence, not a decrease in violence. We have seen that the peace talks are almost stopped, there is hardly any progress at all.
And the Taliban has to do more and they have to live up to their commitments especially related to counterterrorism, break ties with terrorist groups."
According to Doucet, this is so far the worst Taliban fighting season ever, and it will get worse when the snow melts. In fact there's been so little snow this winter, the doctors in the National Police Hospital said that they had never seen so many casualties from so many provinces at this time of year.
So the delusional parts of Stoltenberg's interview are when he says, "we'd like to give every chance to the peace process, the peace talks, to succeed." That's delusional because there is zero probability that the peace talks will succeed, since the Taliban are committed to them not succeeding, and are using the peace talks as a ploy to get the Nato forces to withdraw, so that the Taliban can overrun Kabul and resume the control they had before they were ejected by American forces after 9/11/2001.
According to a European diplomat: "This war is not winnable, but Nato cannot allow itself to lose it pitifully." That's the choice facing Nato right now.
And so the war will go on and be substantially escalated again when the Taliban's spring fighting season begins in earnest.
I've written many times that, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, there is no possibility whatsoever of a successful peace agreement. I started writing about this in 2009, when I predicted that Barack Obama's "surge" into Afghanistan would fail. That prediction has been 100% correct so far.
The following is a summary of the Generational Dynamics analysis:
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody, horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in Pakistan.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill each other.
So when Jens Stoltenberg says that Nato wants to give the peace process a chance, he knows that statement is delusional, and the only relevant statement is the one by the unnamed European diplomat: "This war is not winnable, but Nato cannot allow itself to lose it pitifully."
As regular readers know, I have been writing a book on the history of Vietnam, to complement my previous books on the histories of Iran and China. The book is nearing publication, and I now expect it to be published on Amazon in March.
Here are the front and back book covers:
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John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/
John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition - Forecasting America's Destiny", (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 3), January 2020, Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99, https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dynamics-Anniversary-Forecasting-Americas/dp/1732738629/
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(19-Feb-2021)
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Similarity between Burma and Washington DC
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Myanmar / Burma is seeing its largest protests in more than a decade, as tens of thousands of protesters demanded that Aung San Suu Kyi be freed, after she was arrested by the army last weekend during an army coup. (See "2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials")
The "problem" that the army has to face is that Suu Kyi has millions of supporters, as her party won legislative elections by a landslide in November.
To combat the peaceful protests, the army shut down the internet. The army shut down internet social media, and then the entire internet, making it difficult for international observers to know what was going on, and to prevent protesters from easily communicating with one another. However, on Saturday, the internet was partially restored, though social media is still blocked.
What everyone fears is the next tactic -- violence.
In October 2007, there were large nationwide anti-army pro-democracy demonstrations, led by over 100,000 Buddhist monks. These were demonstrations by the "88 Generation," triggered by an abrupt government decision to double the price of gasoline. ( "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter")
Hundreds of activists and citizens were shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, were gathered up and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers.
By coincidence, Sylvester Stallone was filming a Rambo film nearby, and witnessed some of the genocide. Stallone said:
"I witnessed the aftermath—survivors with legs cut off and all kinds of land mine injuries, maggot-infested wounds and ears cut off. We saw many elephants with blown off legs. We hear about Vietnam and Cambodia and this was more horrific. This is a hellhole beyond your wildest dreams. All the trails are mined. The only way into Burma is up the river."
The October 2007 demonstrations occurred 19 years after the previous major nationwide demonstrations, starting on August 8, 1988 (8/8/88), creating what was called the "88 Generation," led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Those demonstrations were crushed when the Burmese army fired on students with machine guns, killing thousands. Suu Kyi was arrested and put into detention for years.
Atrocities come easily to Burma's army. Since 2011, the army has been committing atrocities on Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine State, as I described in last week's article. The atrocities included gang rape, violent torture, execution-style killings and the razing of entire villages, in a scorched earth campaign. Aung Sang Suu Kyi became a "useful idiot" for the army by presenting a sympathetic, tired, weary, female face to the world to deflect the horrors and atrocities that are occurring in their country, as I described in my article.
Suu Kyi appeased the army by becoming a useful idiot, just as Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler and the Nazis. In both cases there were high prices to be paid for being appeasers.
The international community is now waiting to see what will happen next in Burma. Anti-government pro-democracy protests have been growing. How long will the army wait before repeating the violence and atrocities that come as easily to them as smoking a cigarette?
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The problems facing the Democrats in Washington DC are similar to the problems facing the army in Burma.
The Burmese army has to deal with millions of Aung Sang Suu Kyi supporters conducting street protests. They've arrested Suu Kyi so that she can't communicate with her supporters, and they've shut down internet social media so that her supporters can't communicate with one another.
The Democrats have to deal with 74 million Trump supporters who, according to polls I've seen, overwhelmingly support Trump. The wealthy, powerful "Big Tech" companies have colluded with the Democrats to shut down thousands of social media accounts to prevent Trump from communicating with his supporters, and to prevent his supporters from communicating with each other. This kind of mass censorship is previously unheard of in America, and suggests that America is becoming a Stalinist dictatorship.
The Democrats are taking other steps. Joe Biden announced last week that hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens will be permitted to enter the United States freely. The apparent purpose is to send them mail-in ballots in 2022 and instruct them to vote for Democrats.
What about violence? The Burmese army is on the verge of violence as the only way to handle even peaceful demonstrations by the millions of supporters of Suu Kiy.
Would the Democrats use violence to control peaceful demonstrations by the 74 million Trump supporters?
Let's make it a little more specific. Look at the first picture at the beginning of this article with a mob of peaceful demonstrators carrying placards with pictures Aung Sang Suu Kyi. Now imagine that as a crowd of Trump supporters carrying placards with pictures of Trump, with text reading "Trump - The Real President."
Something like that could actually happen. What would the Democrats do? Would Nancy Pelosi totally freak out? On January 20, the acting Deputy Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli said that Nancy Pelosi had requested thousands of troops to remain in DC for months, and she wanted them armed with crew-manned machine guns. These are the guns used in countries like Burma to kill dozens of student protesters within seconds. The request was denied, but this request shows the state of mind of Pelosi and the Democrats.
We also note that Biden is ordering the army to "stand down" so that "extremists" can be weeded out. To the Democrats, all 74 million Tea Partiers and Trump supporters are extremists or cultists that need to be "deprogrammed."
If you're talking about psychology and madness, it's hard to find any aspect of today's world that isn't full of madness.
You have full-scale genocide going on in China, as bad as the world has seen since the 1930s, or worse. China is also annexing or threatening to annex other regions, as the Nazis did in the 1930s.
There are huge refugee flows around the world. The number of displaced persons has surged astronomically since 2010.
America is being governed by "big tech" companies, and America is moving in the direction of a Stalinist dictatorship.
Stock prices are at astronomically high valuations, and global debt is unsustainable in the hundreds of trillions.
I find the madness of today's world personally overwhelming. To say that it's a world that is senseless to me is an understatement. I can understand how King Solomon saw a world of madness and folly and chaos.
Generational Dynamics is less about predictions than it is about trends. And the madness and folly and chaos trends are growing worse every day. These are the trends, and the trends are unstoppable. Every aspect of today's world is worse than yesterday's world. The only good news is that today's world is better than tomorrow's world.
If something can't go on forever, then it won't.
People talk about how to prevent World War III. But Generational Dynamics sees a world that needs World War III. Each day's delay means that World War III will be even worse.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(8-Feb-2021)
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China may intervene in Myanmar
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The military in Myanmar (Burma) on Sunday arrested the country's nominal leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and about 45 other government officials, in a military coup. Army chief Min Aung Hlaing declared a state of emergency, and claims that the state of emergency will last a year, and then there will be new elections.
Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party won a landslide victory two months ago in November's parliamentary elections, with 80% of the seats. The army's political party suffered a huge defeat, and risked losing a great deal of power when the new parliament was seated, which was scheduled for today (Monday).
In 2010, the army released Suu Kyi from detention after 21 years. She had been under detention since the 1988 student protests, in which she participated. During her time in detention, she won a Nobel Peace Prize.
She went into politics and became country leader under the condition that she "share power" with the army. There have been numerous disagreements between the two, but apparently there was always one area of agreement: Aung Sang Suu Kyi and the army and the Buddhist monks, led by monk Ashin Wirathu, committed massive genocide, atrocities and ethnic cleansing on ethnic Rohingya Muslims. Suu Kyi still retains her Nobel Peace Prize anyway.
On Monday, the NLD issued a statement that had been written by Suu Kyi in advance, in anticipation of the coup. In the statement, Suu Kyi called on the country’s 55 million people to oppose a return to “military dictatorship.” The implication is that she is asking her supporters to protest and riot.
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Army general Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the coup, became head of the army in 2011. That was the same year that Burma's security forces began committing atrocities on Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine State. The atrocities were supported by Buddhist monks, led by Buddhist Monk Ashin Wirathu. The United Nations described it as "a textbook example of ethnic cleansing." The atrocities included gang rape, violent torture, execution-style killings and the razing of entire villages, in a scorched earth campaign. Aung Sang Suu Kyi told reporters nothing had happened.
In 2013, a mob of Buddhists attacked a Rohingya village, hacking 20 boys to death, and reduced an entire established community of 12,000 Muslims, including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and rubble. Aung Sang Suu Kyi told reporters nothing had happened.
A massive period of full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing began in August 2017. Tens of thousands were killed, and 730,000 refugees were forced across the border into Bangladesh, where they're still living in the crowded, filthy Cox's Bazar refugee camp.
In 2019, the International Court of Justice in the Hague held a trial on Burma's genocide, and Aung Sang Suu Kyi came and defended the army, saying that nothing had happened.
So Aung Sang Suu Kyi is just a useful idiot, becoming a war criminal herself and serving the needs of the Burmese army war criminal, by presenting a sympathetic, tired, weary, female face to the world to deflect the horrors and atrocities that are occurring in their country.
These atrocities have been going on since 2011, but almost nobody cared, or even cares much now, because of Aung Sang Suu Kyi's tired, weary, female face, reciting the words of her puppetmaster Min Aung Hlaing. Most Burmese people are well aware of the genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas. But they aren't bothered by it. They love it. "Go on!" you might imagine millions of Burmese saying in unison. "Torture the Rohingyas some more! Rape them some more! Slit their throats, so that their impure blood waters the furrows of our farmland!"
The Burmese hatred of the Rohingyas is not rare. That kind of ethnic hatred is common in several countries today and recently. It's the rule. It's the Chinese hatred of Uighurs. It's the Zimbabwe Shona hatred of the Nbdele. It's the Syrian Alawite hatred of Arab Sunnis. It's the Rwandan Hutu hatred of Tutsis. It's the Nazi hatred of Jews. In America today, it's the Democrats' hatred of the 74 million Tea Partiers and Trump supporters, as I described at length in "12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook".
Aung Sang Suu Kyi sold herself, her self-respect, and her soul out to become a useful idiot for the Burmese army war criminals. As often happens by groups united only by hatred and criminality, the army and Aung Sang Suu Kyi have now become enemies. The army has arrested Aung Sang Suu Kyi and dozens of people in her government, but the army just lost an election in a landslide, and they can't arrest the millions of people who supported her. (This is also a lesson for America.)
Aung Sang Suu Kyi has called on her millions of supporters to oppose the coup with protests. This could easily unravel into full-scale riots. However, the Burmese security forces were extremely violent for years against the Rohingyas, and they won't hesitate to be equally violent against their own people. They can also count on support from the Chinese Communists, who conduct their own violence against Uighurs, Tibetans, Buddhists, Christians, and anyone who disagrees with them.
Myanmar and China share a common border, and they have a great deal in common, especially since both are committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslims, of Rohingyas and Uighurs, respectively. That must give them a lot to talk about, to discuss the best methods for torture and enslavement. Indeed, in a meeting last month with Min Aung Hlaing, China's foreign minister Wang Yi called the two countries “brothers” while praising the military’s “national revitalization.” Myanmar has promised to "continue to support China's position on issues related to Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang." They also support each other in the United Nations, when they're accused of crimes against humanity. It takes one to know one.
China is heavily involved in building Myanmar's infrastructure, including a joint construction project to build the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The CMEC focuses on 12 areas including basic infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, agriculture, transport, finance, human resource development and telecommunications.
China is also practicing "vaccine diplomacy," by promising to provide 300,000 doses of coronavirus vaccines to Myanmar.
However, China and Burma have also had strong disagreements over separatist ethnic groups. In August 2009, there was violent fighting between Burma's army and rebels from the Kokang ethnic group. This angered the Chinese because the Kokang are a Han Chinese minority, and got China's army involved briefly.
The wild card in this situation is the separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which is demanding a separate state for the Kachin ethnic group. They've joined together with the Shan ethnic group and other ethnic groups in northern Burma, along the border with China, to form a "northern alliance" against Burma's army. In northern Shan state, intense fighting has occurred since January 2018 and intensified since December 2020. There are an estimated 7 ethnic armed organizations, 20 militia groups, and 7 Border Guard Forces (BGFs) actively engaged in an armed independence movement against the Myanmar government.
Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars involving multiple ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter")
62 years have passed since the climax of the last generational crisis war, so Burma is ripe for cycling around and having a new violent ethnic civil war. China was heavily involved in the 1950s crisis war, and they would be involved in a new Myanmar civil war, possibly destabilizing the entire region.
Pretty much everyone is shocked that the army engineered this coup at this time. Analysts are puzzled by why the army took this step right now, since they pretty much control everything anyway, even with Aung San Suu Kyi as the nominal leader.
So the following is speculation: Perhaps the Burmese army has intelligence that sees signs of new KIA activity, and they want to lock everything down. As I said, this is speculation, but the current situation appears to be potentially very unstable, with an army coup, with threats of protests and riots by Aung Sang Suu Kyi's millions of supporters, and with the possibility of protests by the Kachin and Shan ethnic groups. It's necessary to watch the situation in Myanmar very carefully in the next few weeks.
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(2-Feb-2021)
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