Dynamics
|
|
Generational Dynamics |
| Modern Generational Theory | |
| HOME WEB LOG COUNTRY STUDIES COMMENT FORUM | |
| DOWNLOADS FOURTH TURNING ARCHIVE ABOUT | |
What did the Israelis accomplish? Mowing the lawn
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The worst possible outcome of the recent war -- that it would spiral into a full-scale regional war -- did not happen.
The best possible outcome of the recent war -- that it would settle the Israel-Palestinian dispute once and for all -- did not happen and could not possibly happen.
The 11 day conflict ended with a ceasefire on Friday, May 21, at 2 am. Nobody believes that there won't be another war soon.
Hamas fired 4,300 rockets from Gaza into Israel during the conflict, killing two children and six adults in Israel.
Israel fired thousands of missiles into Gaza during the conflict, killing 66 children and 248 adults.
Gaza was devastated by the war. More than 100,000 people lost their homes. Water and sewer systems were destroyed, so there's no water or sanitation. There is little electricity, and many hospitals were destroyed.
If you listen to Palestinians interviewed on tv, then you hear them say that the deaths and destruction in Gaza were worth it because those deaths have generated international outrage at Israel. There have been international anti-Israel riots and demonstrations in cities around the world. There have been calls for boycotts of Israeli goods.
In a way, this is a longing for a return to the 2000s decade, when the Palestinian issue was front page news around the world almost every day. Starting around ten years ago, Palestinian spokesmen began complaining that they had been completely forgotten by the international community because of other international issues, such as the wars in Ukraine and Syria. One of the motivations for starting the 2014 summer war with Israel is thought by some to be an attempt to get back on the front pages. And now, the Palestinians themselves seem to be saying the same thing.
Some Arab writers are saying the same thing in different ways.
German-Egyptian Intellectual Dr. Hamed Abdel-Samad said the following in an interview:
"Hamas has turned the Palestinians into beggars. Where did all the money go? I would like Fatah and Hamas to explain to the Palestinians where all this money went? [Imagine] what could have been done with it.Why wasn't it invested in good education, instead of making children TV shows that teach them martyrdom and suicide? Why do all the leaders of Fatah have villas, palaces, and a lot of money? They stole from their people and did not invest in their freedom, in their educations, and in their self confidence. They left their people only with the choice between martyrdom or begging for money."
Saudi journalists are even more harshly critical of the actions of the Gaza Palestinians, directly connecting the actions of Hamas to the agenda of the Iranians, who are supplying Hamas with the rockets that they've been launching at Israel.
As the war began, Saudi journalist Muhammad Aal Al-Sheikh tweeted:
"I suspect that the move of those Palestinian factions that are agents of the Persians was carried out on orders from Iran, so as to exert pressure in [Iran's] favor in the Vienna [nuclear] talks. The implications [of the escalation] will likely be devastating for the helpless citizens of Gaza."
Another Saudi journalist, Sa'ud Al-Fawzan said that the war could have been avoided entirely, but it's something that that the leaders of Palestine and Israel wanted:
"I will never show tolerance for the killing of children in [either] Tel Aviv or Gaza. Those responsible for their death are both [Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu and [Hamas leader in Gaza Isma'il] Haniya. Were it not for Netanyahu and Haniya, the Palestinians and the Israelis would have lived together just as our forefathers coexisted peacefully with the Jews for many centuries."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this interpretation is comforting, but delusional. There is enormous mutual hostility, xenophobia and hatred between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and do Netanyahu and Haniya were doing what the people they were governing wanted them to do.
And this is further proved, by the way, by the communal violence between Palestinians and Israelis that broke out and is still ongoing.
First, not all Israelis are happy with the ceasefire. The cities of Ashkelon and Sderot, in southern Israel, have been hit particularly hard to by Gaza rockets over the years, and have suffered numerous casualties.
According to Sderot's mayor Alon Davidi:
"This proves that despite the full support and perseverance and heroism that the residents of the south have shown for the past 20 years, it appears that Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu and the Israeli government are not interested in defeating Hamas and prefer temporary quiet for residents of central Israel at the expense of residents of the Gaza periphery and the south, who will continue to suffer from terrorism."
Of course it's totally delusional that completely defeating Hamas is even possible, but this is a widely held desire by many Israelis, especially in the south.
When Israeli officials are interviewed about what they accomplished, they describe the war much more succintly and in military terms.
They say that Israel had to defend itself from the incoming rockets, and that they had to retaliate with massive missile strikes to destroy Hamas's military infrastructure, including military offices, weapons stores, and a huge labyrinth of underground tunnels. The objective is to prevent a new war from occurring for as long a time as possible.
Israeli military commanders do not have any expectation of defeating Hamas permanently. They use the metaphor "mowing the lawn" to capture the idea that after destroying Hamas's arsenal and tunnels, they will be restored again by Iran -- the grass will grow back and have to be mowed again.
It was Egypt that negotiated the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. President Joe Biden says that ceasefire was possible because of his intense behind the scenes mediation.
One of the accomplishments claimed by the Palestinians, along with the rise in worldwide outrage at Israel, is that the far left in America's Democrat Party, led by AOC, is demanding that Biden withdraw his support from Israel. In particular, Biden is being pressured from the left to cancel a $735 million weapons deal, most of which would be used to resupply the defensive missiles in the Iron Dome anti-missile system that protected much of Israel from the thousands of Gaza rockets.
Not resupplying the Iron Dome would have disastrous consequences for Israel, and would permit thousands of Gaza rockets to reach their intended destinations, killing civilians in their homes.
AOC in the past has said that she is thrilled by how Biden has taken one far left socialist position after another, but now for the first time, Biden is being forced to take a position opposed to AOC. On Friday, Biden says that the Democrat party "still supports Israel," and said:
"There is no shift in my commitment to the security of Israel. Period. No shift. The shift is we still need a two-state solution. It is the only answer."
I've been ridiculing the "two-state solution" through the presidencies of Bush, Obama, Trump and now Biden. The first major Generational Dynamics analysis that I posted was Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003), in which I explained why there would not be peace between the Israelis and Palestinians, because they would be re-fighting the bloody 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Trump's two-state solution plan was announced just a little over a year ago. ( "29-Jan-20 World View -- Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan")
Since 2006, there have been five wars involving Israel and Palestinians: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and July-August 2014.
These wars follow a typical, predictable pattern of a series of clashes separated by periods of peace, with each clash more violent than the preceding one. As the old saying goes, "Peace is that brief, glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading." This pattern cannot go on forever, and eventually will lead to a full-scale generational crisis war.
So now Biden is adopting the same delusional two-state solution plan as Bush, Obama and Trump. The main features of Biden's plan are like every other policy announced by Biden -- just do the opposite of Trump did.
Trump's strategy, which included isolating Iran, was to strongly support Israel and cut funding for Palestinian militias, to prevent another war. Biden's strategy, which includes negotiations with Iran to restore the JCPOA nuclear deal, is to "rebuild ties" with the Palestinians. Biden will reopen the the consulate with the Palestinians in Jerusalem -- Trump had closed it and made it part of the new embassy in Jerusalem. Biden will ask Congress for $75 million for economic assistance for the Palestinans, and also $5.5 million for emergency aid for Gaza. Biden will also restore $32 million in new aid for UNRWA, for the exponentially growing number of Palestinian "refugees."
The money being provided is intended for use in rebuilding Gaza's buildings and infrastructure after being devastated by war. The objection, of course, is that those millions of dollars will be used by Hamas to purchase new stocks of weapons from Iran in preparation for the next war with Israel, instead of to rebuild Gaza.
Along with this monetary largess comes another part of the plan that seems totally delusional. Biden's plan is to route the money though the West Bank Palestinian Authority, and let Fatah, Hamas's enemy, take charge of using Biden's money to rebuild Gaza. Yeah, that will work fine.
As for the Democrat Party, there's a poisonous anti-Semitism growing, which is resulting in violent attacks on Jews in this country. Black Lives Matter is promoting the same hate-filled anti-Semitism. Democrat leaders like Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi have said nothing about the growing violence against Jews.
Regular readers will be familiar with the following paragraph, since I've written something like it dozens of times:
Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
The latest Gaza war is actually different from previous Gaza wars in some significant ways.
First, Hamas had more rockets and more powerful rockets than in the past, supplied by Iran. Hamas points with pride to the fact that its rockets can now reach apartment buildings in Tel Aviv for the first time.
Second, Israel's missile strikes on Gaza were much more powerful than in the past. The destruction of apartment blocks and infrastructure was much more extensive than in 2014.
Third, the communal violence between Arabs and Israelis in the West Bank and within Israel itself was much greater and more violent than in the past. In particular, for the first time, Arabs living as citizens in Israel took the fight to their Israeli neighbors. This is extremely ominous, and the communal violence is still ongoing.
No politician, except the most delusional, believes that the recent Gaza war was the last one. In a sense, the continuing communal violence suggests that the recent Gaza war hasn't really ended yet. But we can expect a new Gaza war in the not too distant future, and at some point it will escalate into a full regional Mideast war.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(26-May-2021)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Can Joe Biden bring peace to the Mideast?
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Previously, I've described a new an unexpected development in the current war between Israel and the Palestinians. The new development, which has apparently caught everyone by surprise, is the rise of extremely bitter communal / sectarian violence between Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. (See "14-May-21 World View -- Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war")
The purpose of this article is to explain in further detail the significance of this violence, and the role of the "58-Year Rule" of generational theory.
Today's violence is occurring on both the Jewish and Arab sides, but it's being characterized by some as a "Third Intifada," a general street uprising of Palestinian people against the Israeli government and people.
There have been two previous Intifadas. The first began in December 1987 in Gaza and spread to the West Bank. It consisted of massive peaceful protests, demonstrations, strikes, boycotts, and riots. It began to die off fairly quickly, and officially ended in September 1993 with the signing of the Oslo Accords agreement, which was supposed to provide peace between Israelis and Palestinians, but never did anything of the sort. In the late 1990s, Hamas was formed and carried out a series of suicide attacks against Israeli targets, while Israelis continued to build settlements in the West Bank, with both sides violating the Oslo Accords.
The Oslo Accords broke down in 2000, resulting in the Second Intifada, which began in September 2000 and was an armed rebellion by Palestinian militias, including Hamas and Fatah, against Israeli security forces, and against Israeli civilians using suicide bombings. The violence only began to subside in 2005, after the deaths of about 3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis.
During the Second Intifida, the leaders of the Palestinians and Israelis were, respectively, Yassir Arafat and Ariel Sharon. On May 1, 2003, I posted my first major Generational Dynamics analysis, predicting that President George Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" peace plan would fail, because the Jews and the Palestinians would be re-fighting the bloody 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. (Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003))
In that article, I wrote the following:
"There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon and Yassir Arafat.These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge."
Although I didn't write the following, I suspected that Sharon and Arafat were actually cooperating in back channels to prevent the violence from turning into a full-fledged civil war.
Why would they do that? They would do that because they had both survived the ethnic civil war in 1948-49. In my article earlier this week, I gave an example of what happened during Rwanda's ethnic civil war: Populations had intermarried and were living on the same streets, where their children had played together. But that did not stop someone from picking up a machete, going next door, killing the father and children, raping the wife, killing her, and then cutting them all up into mangled pieces. These examples are the rule, not the exception, for ethnic civil wars. Crisis wars are like forces of nature; you can no more stop a crisis war than you can stop a tsunami.
That example is from the Rwanda war, but you can be absolutely certain that similar things happened during the 1948-49 ethnic civil war between Arabs and Jews. Both Arafat and Sharon had lived during that war. They may have personally participated in or ordered these kinds of atrocities. Nobody goes through experiences like that without being completely traumatized. Preventing a repeat of those experiences becomes an overwhelming goal, much more important than fighting another war, even a "justified" war.
It goes much deeper than that. Not only Arafat and Sharon, but also millions of Palestinians and Israelis had lived through the 1948-49 war and were similarly traumatized. That's why, during the Second Intifada, there was relatively little contact between civilian Jews and Arabs, and most of the violence was more or less organized, through militias and security police.
When Yassir Arafat died in November 2004, I wrote the following:
"Yes, he was a brutal, vicious terrorist. Yes he was a liar and maybe even a crook. Yes, he approved suicide bombings that killed Jewish children.But for a man in his position, approving suicide bombings was the lesser of two evils. The greater evil was unleashing a new genocidal war, one that would kill many more Jewish and Arab children than suicide bombings do."
Mahmoud Abbas, born in 1935, took Arafat's place. He was also a survivor of the 1948-49 war, and did not radically change Arafat's policies. Today, Abbas is facing the possibility of leading the Palestinians through a Third Intifada.
I have often seen Al-Jazeera's political analyst Marwan Bishara discuss Mideast topics. It's always been clear that he hates Israel but, notably, it's also been clear that he hates Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah even more than he hates Israel. He considers Abbas to be a historic traitor to the Palestinians, because he negotiates with the Israelis to keep the peace, and the West Bank security forces cooperate with the Israeli security forces for the same reason.
So I listened to Bishara rant for a long time on Saturday. He wonders why the Israelis are killing innocent Palestinians. He wants the US, the UK and the EU all to condemn Israel for its practices, and to force Israel to accept a ceasefire with Hamas.
It's not surprising that Bishara sharply disagrees with Abbas. Abbas was born in 1935 and lived through the 1948-49 war. Bishara was born in 1969, and knows nothing about the war except what Palestinian activists have told him. So he welcomes a Third Intifada, because the Palestinians might finally achieve their dreams of freedom -- whatever that means.
Abbas opposes a Third Intifada. He believes that the Second Intifada was a disaster for Palestinians. His unstated reason is that it is absolutely certain that Abbas remembers the traumatizing atrocities of the 1948-49 war. He is old enough to remember them, and he's also old enough to recognize that it's happening again. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was forced to go on television and tell the nation: "Nothing justifies the lynching of Arabs by Jews and nothing justifies the lynching of Jews by Arabs." For him to make that announcement reveals that horrible things are happening today and, indeed, news reports confirm that.
Mahmoud Abbas is now 85 years old. I reported years ago that polls shows young Palestinians were almost unanimous in disliking Abbas. They consider him a failure for any number of reasons, the most obvious one being that, 27 years after the Oslo Accords, almost nothing has changed for the Palestinians. Young Palestinians dislike Hamas leaders almost as much.
In my article last week, I described how the 58-Year Rule applies. The generations people who lived through the 1948-49 war were all traumatized by the horrors and atrocities. We've found that these generations all retire and die around the same time, 58 years after the end of such a war, which would have been 2006-2007. That's why the First and Second Intifadas fizzled. There were too many people around who were traumatized by the last war, and would do anything to keep it from happening again.
But that's not true today. Abbas is still around, but almost everyone else from that generation of survivors is gone. That's the difference between Mahmoud Abbas and Marwan Bishara. Bishara has no personal knowledge of the war's atrocities, so he couldn't care less if there's another ethnic civil war. He and many other young people welcome it, because they have fantasies that they'll be free and that Israel will be pushed into the sea.
So, can Mahmoud Abbas prevent a Third Intifada from occurring? Can an 85 year old extremely unpopular leader stop a force of nature? If I had to bet (and fortunately I don't), I would bet that he can't. Or if he can, he can stop it only temporarily.
On Saturday, there was a panel of journalists on the BBC discussing the Israel-Palestine situation. The hostility to Israel among these journalists is enormous, and not surprising. And it's worth noting that there are anti-Israel demonstrations going on in cities around the world.
One person said, "I'm going to say something very controversial. [long pause] If Donald Trump were president, this would not have happened."
Instead of the usual screaming, this comment was met with silence, which I interpreted as tacit agreement.
According to these journalists, Biden was hoping to avoid having to deal with the Mideast, since he wanted to focus on getting a new nuclear agreement with Iran, and ending the sanctions. This would now be very controversial, since Iran is funding Hamas. But the journalists are blaming Biden for the Mideast war, saying that he has been ignoring the Palestinian problem in favor of the Iran policy.
So the narrative is growing that the Mideast war is Israel's fault, and it's also Biden's fault because Biden is not holding back Israel, and forcing Israel to agree to a ceasefire.
In Washington, Democrats like AOC are demanding that Biden end all funding to Israel, and force Israel to accept a ceasefire under terms dictated by Hamas. Republicans are angry that Biden has been taking a wrecking ball to all aspects of America's domestic and foreign policy, and is giving money to the Palestinians, which they are using to buy weapons from Iran, which Biden is also supporting.
So this is shaping up to be a major political issue in America. Meanwhile, the Israel-Palestine war is continuing to escalate, and will continue to do so no matter what Biden does.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(16-May-2021)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Understanding the mainstream media
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
Communal or sectarian violence within Israel threatens a much larger war. I'll return to that subject below.
The following are the recent developments in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza:
My view has been that the current war would fizzle out within a few months, like the 2014 war. The only thing that could prevent that is if some third country, like Egypt or Turkey, actively entered the war on the side of Hamas.
However, there's a new development that changes that calculation. The new development, which has apparently caught everyone by surprise, is the rise of extremely bitter communal / sectarian violence between Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. To be clear, we're talking about Israeli citizens who have for years been living side by side within Israeli cities and towns. About 20% of Israel's total population are Arabs.
There have been shootings, lynchings, rock-throwing, and stabbings. The epicenter of the ethnic violence is Lod, a city with large Jewish and Arab populations. However, the violence has been spreading to cities across the country.
In one case, a lynching was shown on tv in real time. In the city of Bat Yam, a live tv broadcast showed a Jewish mob dragging a man, whom they believed to be Palestinian, out of his car before severely beating him. Needless to say, the video of this live broadcast has gone viral.
"Death to Arabs" is frequently chanted in rallies throughout the country, including Haifa and Acre in the north, as well as Lod, Jaffa, and Tiberias.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on both Jews and Arabs to cease attacks on each other:
"Nothing justifies the lynching of Arabs by Jews and nothing justifies the lynching of Jews by Arabs."
Maybe nothing justifies these lynchings, but it's clear that these lynchings are going to increase in number.
As one commentator said, there has been a "social compact" in Israel for decades, permitting Arabs and Jews to live together side by side in peace, but now that social compact is coming apart at the seams.
The 58-Year Rule is a significant finding of modern generational theory. According to the Generational Dynamics 58-Year Hypothesis, which by now has been well proven, a new ethnic civil war will not begin less than 58 years from the end of the previous ethnic civil war. That's because 58 years is precisely the time when the generations of survivors of the preceding war all die or retire, all at once, and the younger post-war generations come to power. It has now been 73 years since the end of the last ethnic civil war, the war between Jews and Arabs that occurred with the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, and so Israel is fully ripe for a new ethnic civil war, and that seems to be what's happening.
Two recent examples of ethnic civil wars are the Rwanda war of 1994 and the Bosnian war of 1995. In Rwanda and Bosnia, populations had intermarried and were living on the same streets, where their children had played together. But that did not stop someone from picking up a machete, going next door, killing the father and children, raping the wife, killing her, and then cutting them all up into mangled pieces. These examples are the rule, not the exception, for ethnic civil wars.
So as long as the war between Israel and Gaza is at the top level government levels, then the top-down war is likely to fizzle out, as I said. But when the war is organic and bottom-up, then it's likely to spread into a much wider war, crossing into neighboring countries.
So for those of you who can take a breather from Washington politics and want to watch what's going on in the world, this is the place to watch. If the communal violence dies down, then a larger war will be avoided, for the time being. But if the communal violence grows and spreads, it will probably engulf the entire Mideast.
As regular readers know (since I've written it many times), Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
This is a completely separate subject. The following text is something that I posted in the Generational Dynamics forum that may be of interest to a larger audience.
The problem is that media sources have become dishonest and censorious, and so the question is: Who is to be believed?
But after writing thousands of articles over almost 20 years, I've developed a pretty good intuition about who in the media is telling the truth and who is bullshitting.
I should probably put together a whole big article on the subject, but here are some sample conclusions:
CNN, MSNBC, AP, Tehran Times, Russia Today, China Daily are all similar in that they're "state media," and just parrot the government line uncritically.
Fox News generally lives up to its "fair and balanced" claim, since they present both sides of issues pretty fairly.
For international news, the BBC is pretty good, but when it reports on American news, which it does all the time, it's the same as CNN and MSNBC. BBC receives a great deal of funding from NPR, and so it is required to follow the same Democrat party talking points.
Al-Jazeera is also pretty good with international news. But you'll never see a negative story about Qatar. Also, they hate Israel, and they hate the Palestinian Authority even more, but they love Hamas. But for Asian news they're pretty good. Oh, and they hate America, and they REALLY hate Trump.
AFP is pretty good for Mideast, Asian and African news. VOA and RFERL are pretty reliable.
Reuters is an interesting case, because I've found them to be almost always completely fair and balanced. I believe that the reason is that Thomson Reuters is an Canadian company, so they have a wholly different view of the world.
When I'm writing an international story, I have to use each news source in a credible way. For example, I'll consider China Daily or Global Times to be an accurate statement of China's political position, and I would consider them more credible on this subject than, say, Reuters or AP or the BBC. On the other hand, the BBC is much more credible about China's actions.
In an international story, like the Israel-Palestine story of today, I don't want to take sides, so I try to find accounts from each side, ideally to quote them in parallel. This is not always easy to do.
And of course I'm always guided by previous Generational Dynamics conclusions. For example, I've known for decades that there will never be a "two-state solution" in the Mideast, so I know automatically that any policitian who talks about it is full of crap.
So maybe at some point I'll expand this into a more comprehensive article.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(14-May-2021)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Israeli police storm Al-Aqsa Mosque after violent Palestinian protests
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
The war between Hamas militants in Gaza and Israeli's military was renewed on Monday, when militants fired dozes of rockets into Israel, and Israel's military responded with missile strikes, killing 20 people in Gaza, including nine children, according to Gaza officials.
This was the worst such violence that has occurred in year, since the 2014 summer war. Hamas militants have fired rockets into southern Israel at intervals for years, but this was a major escalation because the rockets targeted Jerusalem. Explosions could be heard in Jerusalem, and one of the rockets damaged a home on the outskirts of Jerusalem. Israel struck many of the rockets down, using their "Iron Dome" anti-missile system, and others exploded harmlessly in open areas.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the rocket attacks had "crossed a red line":
"Israel will respond very forcefully. We will not tolerate attacks on our territory, our capital, our citizens and our soldiers. Whoever strikes us will pay a heavy price."
Hamas launched the rocket attacks after a 6 pm deadline passed for an ultimatum that demanded that Israeli police withdraw from the Al-Aqsa mosque in East Jerusalem. Hamas also demanded the release of all detained Palestinians, and the removal of Jewish settlers from an East Jerusalem neighbourhood.
Hamas said that Israel was waging a "religious war against Palestinian worshipers" in Jerusalem.
"What is happening in the Al-Aqsa Mosque at the time of storming and assaulting worshipers is proof of the brutality of the Zionist occupation.[Israel is responsible for its] incursion into the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The occupation will pay a heavy price."
So both sides are promising "a heavy price."
Terminology:
 |
Hamas militias set the 6 pm deadline and launched the rockets as a reaction to a situation of escalating violence is occurring for weeks in Jerusalem. Typically, these situations worsen for a while, then begin to settle down and fizzle. But we know that one day one of these situations will escalate into a full war, but we don't know which one. So far, this situation is triggering a larger war, to include Hamas.
The epicenter of violence in the last few weeks is the Al-Aqsa mosque compound, which is Islam's third-holiest site, behind Mecca and Medina. It is also a major holy site for Jews, who refer to it as the Temple Mount. So it's not surprising that it's a major flash point for Palestinian worshippers and Israeli nationalists.
On Monday, Palestinians hurled rocks, other heavy objects and firecrackers at Israeli policemen. Israeli police stormed the mosque, firing stun grenades and rubber bullets inside the mosque. Hundreds of Palestinians were wounded, and dozens were hospitalized.
This kind of violence has been going on daily since the start of Ramadan on April 13. This is the worst violence in years between Israeli police and Palestinians in East Jerusalem. In April, Israeli police blocked off access to a part of the Old City, giving Covid restrictions as the reason. Then a TikTok video went viral apparently showing an Israeli being abused by an Arab. That's when right-wing extremist Jewish settlers held a large demonstration, chanting "Death to Arabs." Palestinians heard about this, and a crowd responded by throwing firecrackers and setting garbage bins on fire. (See 24-Apr-2021 World View: Violence grows between Palestinians and far-right Jews in East Jerusalem)
Clashes between Palestinians and settlers have occurred almost daily since then. The violence has spiked in recent days as Jewish settlers are asking the Israeli courts to evict Palestinians from their homes, so that the Israeli settlers can take their place. The settlers claim that the land occupied by the Palestinian homes belonged to their Jewish ancestors prior to the 1948 creation of Israel.
These are the last days of Ramadan but, more significantly, Monday is Israel's "Jerusalem Day," which celebrates Israel's capture of East Jerusalem during the 1967 Middle East war.
Israel's government took two steps to try to defuse the violence. First, a court hearing scheduled for Monday was postponed a month. The court hearing would have finalized the decision to evict Palestinians from homes. These threatened evictions would have severely escalated the clashes between Palestinians and settlers.
The other step was to cancel a scheduled march by Israeli right-wing nationalists and settlers, in celebration of Jerusalem Day. The parade would have marched through the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem's Old City, which the Palestinians said would be highly provocative. These two steps reduced some of the violence, although they've apparently infuriated the Israeli nationalists. Nationalist Israelis demonstrated against the moves.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Israelis and Palestinians will be re-fighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. However, this new situation so far shows signs that it's more likely to fizzle, rather than expand into a larger regional war. The US State Department is pressuring Israel to back off, and the United Nations, Egypt and Qatar are mediating between Israel and Hamas to halt the fighting.
However, the violence is expected to continue for at least several weeks and months. The court hearing to evict Palestinians from their homes has not been canceled, but has been postponed for a month, so we can't expect the clashes between Palestinians and Israelis around the Al-Aqsa Mosque to end for at least that period of time. That will lead to more demands by the Hamas militants for at least that period of time. Perhaps the worst that will happen will be like the 2014 summer war between Hamas and Israel that lasted 67 days.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(11-May-2021)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Violence on Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border worst in 20 years
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
 |
For years since the end of the bloody Tajikistan civil war (1992-97), there have been border disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but they've all been isolated incidents. But in the last few weeks, the Tajik army has been mobilizing along a long section of the border, for the first time. The border is 971 kilometers long, of which 471 km are disputed.
At least 31 people have been killed, and over 10,000 people have been evacuated from their homes due to the worst violence in decades between Kyrgyz and Tajik army forces. Entire villages on both sides have been burned down. On Sunday, the two governments agreed to a ceasefire, but it's not clear that the people on the ground agree.
Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan belong to Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Russia has military bases in both countries, so Russia would like to see the conflict settled peacefully.
The borders between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were set up in the 1920s by Josef Stalin, making them part of the Soviet Union. Stalin had no concern for ethnic, demographic, and tribal considerations when he set up those boundaries. He was only interested in commericial benefits. And the boundaries didn't matter, since both countries were part of the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, suddenly the boundaries mattered.
The boundaries were never clearly defined, and there have been calls over the years to officially mark the boundaries. Of course, this would bring any border disagreements into sharp focus, so this project hasn't been pursued. But recently, the government of Kyrgyzstan announced that it would like to complete border demarcations between the countries, and to build a reservoir along the river that supplies water to both countries. These announcements caused the Tajiks to panic, and led to the current border clashes.
The US and Nato began withdrawal of all forces from Afghanistan on May 1, with the withdrawal to be completed on September 11, on the 20th anniversary of the Sept 11, 2001, attacks. The Taliban had promised to coexist peacefully with the Afghan government provided that the US withdrawal was fully completed by May 1, as agreed with the Donald Trump administration early last year. But the Taliban now say that the US has violated the agreement, so they're free to attack anyone they want. Joe Biden has said that the the September 11 completion date for the withdrawal is absolute, not conditions based, so the Taliban know that they can just go ahead and attack.
On Friday, 30 people were killed when a car bomb exploded near a guest house where high school students were staying, in preparation for university entrance exams. Dozens of people were hurt. Witnesses described roofs collapsing and victims being trapped under the debris.
In the last two days alone, there have been dozens of new casualties, from clashes between Afghan forces and the Taliban. Once the Americans leave, there will be nothing preventing the clashes from escalating.
Reports indicate that the people of Kabul are feeling increasingly anxious, particularly about girls' education, which the Taliban have promised to abolish. Friday's car bombing may have been designed to target girls' education.
The withdrawal of US and Nato troops from Afghanistan threatens more than just the stability of Afghanistan. It threatens new kinds of instability in the entire Central Asia region. The countries in the region are concerned that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will create the same regional instability that the American withdrawal from Iraq did in 2010.
The heads of the countries in Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have been meeting to discuss this precise concern. In fact, villagers in Tajikistan, along the Afghanistan border, are being told to be prepared "to take up arms," in the words of a provincial governor:
"In coordination with the police and intelligence departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation dictates."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is not surprising at all. Both Afghanistan (1991-96) and Tajikistan (1992-97) had extremely bloody ethnic civil wars during the 1990s.
In Afghanistan, the war was between the Pashtuns in the south versus the Northern Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family members, so they will be looking for revenge.
It's been over 20 years since those civil wars ended, so the region is in a generational Awakening era, with new nationalistic generations having grown up since then, and having little fear of a new civil war. It's way too early for a major new war, but as typically happens, there will be periods of bloodshed separated by periods of ceasefire, with each bloodshed period worse than the previous one.
Furthermore, new terrorist groups with allegiance to al-Qaeda or ISIS have been springing up in Afghanistan, but have been kept under control with the help of American forces. These groups will be encouraged to grow again, with the departure of the Americans.
In 2009, I told readers to make a mental note of the Fergana Valley (or Ferghana Valley), in central Asia, because it was going to become increasingly important in world affairs. The Fergana Valley sits at the intersection of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and is a hotbed of terrorist activity by al-Qaeda. ( "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2-Nov-2009)")
The American withdrawal from Afghanistan will encourage these clashes. That may be why there have been reports that the Biden administration has been talking to the government of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to reposition the US forces leaving Afghanistan in abandoned American military bases in those two countries. American forces had occupied those bases between 2001 and 2014, before the host countries demanded that the Americans leave.
Little is known publicly about these negotiations, but it would be ironic if the withdrawal of American forces from the "forever war" in Afghanistan led to American forces becoming involved a "forever war" in Central Asia and the Fergana Valley.
Sources:
Related Articles:
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(3-May-2021)
Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
Web Log Summary - 2021
Web Log Summary - 2020
Web Log Summary - 2019
Web Log Summary - 2018
Web Log Summary - 2017
Web Log Summary - 2016
Web Log Summary - 2015
Web Log Summary - 2014
Web Log Summary - 2013
Web Log Summary - 2012
Web Log Summary - 2011
Web Log Summary - 2010
Web Log Summary - 2009
Web Log Summary - 2008
Web Log Summary - 2007
Web Log Summary - 2006
Web Log Summary - 2005
Web Log Summary - 2004
Web Log - December, 2021
Web Log - November, 2021
Web Log - October, 2021
Web Log - September, 2021
Web Log - August, 2021
Web Log - July, 2021
Web Log - June, 2021
Web Log - May, 2021
Web Log - April, 2021
Web Log - March, 2021
Web Log - February, 2021
Web Log - January, 2021
Web Log - December, 2020
Web Log - November, 2020
Web Log - October, 2020
Web Log - September, 2020
Web Log - August, 2020
Web Log - July, 2020
Web Log - June, 2020
Web Log - May, 2020
Web Log - April, 2020
Web Log - March, 2020
Web Log - February, 2020
Web Log - January, 2020
Web Log - December, 2019
Web Log - November, 2019
Web Log - October, 2019
Web Log - September, 2019
Web Log - August, 2019
Web Log - July, 2019
Web Log - June, 2019
Web Log - May, 2019
Web Log - April, 2019
Web Log - March, 2019
Web Log - February, 2019
Web Log - January, 2019
Web Log - December, 2018
Web Log - November, 2018
Web Log - October, 2018
Web Log - September, 2018
Web Log - August, 2018
Web Log - July, 2018
Web Log - June, 2018
Web Log - May, 2018
Web Log - April, 2018
Web Log - March, 2018
Web Log - February, 2018
Web Log - January, 2018
Web Log - December, 2017
Web Log - November, 2017
Web Log - October, 2017
Web Log - September, 2017
Web Log - August, 2017
Web Log - July, 2017
Web Log - June, 2017
Web Log - May, 2017
Web Log - April, 2017
Web Log - March, 2017
Web Log - February, 2017
Web Log - January, 2017
Web Log - December, 2016
Web Log - November, 2016
Web Log - October, 2016
Web Log - September, 2016
Web Log - August, 2016
Web Log - July, 2016
Web Log - June, 2016
Web Log - May, 2016
Web Log - April, 2016
Web Log - March, 2016
Web Log - February, 2016
Web Log - January, 2016
Web Log - December, 2015
Web Log - November, 2015
Web Log - October, 2015
Web Log - September, 2015
Web Log - August, 2015
Web Log - July, 2015
Web Log - June, 2015
Web Log - May, 2015
Web Log - April, 2015
Web Log - March, 2015
Web Log - February, 2015
Web Log - January, 2015
Web Log - December, 2014
Web Log - November, 2014
Web Log - October, 2014
Web Log - September, 2014
Web Log - August, 2014
Web Log - July, 2014
Web Log - June, 2014
Web Log - May, 2014
Web Log - April, 2014
Web Log - March, 2014
Web Log - February, 2014
Web Log - January, 2014
Web Log - December, 2013
Web Log - November, 2013
Web Log - October, 2013
Web Log - September, 2013
Web Log - August, 2013
Web Log - July, 2013
Web Log - June, 2013
Web Log - May, 2013
Web Log - April, 2013
Web Log - March, 2013
Web Log - February, 2013
Web Log - January, 2013
Web Log - December, 2012
Web Log - November, 2012
Web Log - October, 2012
Web Log - September, 2012
Web Log - August, 2012
Web Log - July, 2012
Web Log - June, 2012
Web Log - May, 2012
Web Log - April, 2012
Web Log - March, 2012
Web Log - February, 2012
Web Log - January, 2012
Web Log - December, 2011
Web Log - November, 2011
Web Log - October, 2011
Web Log - September, 2011
Web Log - August, 2011
Web Log - July, 2011
Web Log - June, 2011
Web Log - May, 2011
Web Log - April, 2011
Web Log - March, 2011
Web Log - February, 2011
Web Log - January, 2011
Web Log - December, 2010
Web Log - November, 2010
Web Log - October, 2010
Web Log - September, 2010
Web Log - August, 2010
Web Log - July, 2010
Web Log - June, 2010
Web Log - May, 2010
Web Log - April, 2010
Web Log - March, 2010
Web Log - February, 2010
Web Log - January, 2010
Web Log - December, 2009
Web Log - November, 2009
Web Log - October, 2009
Web Log - September, 2009
Web Log - August, 2009
Web Log - July, 2009
Web Log - June, 2009
Web Log - May, 2009
Web Log - April, 2009
Web Log - March, 2009
Web Log - February, 2009
Web Log - January, 2009
Web Log - December, 2008
Web Log - November, 2008
Web Log - October, 2008
Web Log - September, 2008
Web Log - August, 2008
Web Log - July, 2008
Web Log - June, 2008
Web Log - May, 2008
Web Log - April, 2008
Web Log - March, 2008
Web Log - February, 2008
Web Log - January, 2008
Web Log - December, 2007
Web Log - November, 2007
Web Log - October, 2007
Web Log - September, 2007
Web Log - August, 2007
Web Log - July, 2007
Web Log - June, 2007
Web Log - May, 2007
Web Log - April, 2007
Web Log - March, 2007
Web Log - February, 2007
Web Log - January, 2007
Web Log - December, 2006
Web Log - November, 2006
Web Log - October, 2006
Web Log - September, 2006
Web Log - August, 2006
Web Log - July, 2006
Web Log - June, 2006
Web Log - May, 2006
Web Log - April, 2006
Web Log - March, 2006
Web Log - February, 2006
Web Log - January, 2006
Web Log - December, 2005
Web Log - November, 2005
Web Log - October, 2005
Web Log - September, 2005
Web Log - August, 2005
Web Log - July, 2005
Web Log - June, 2005
Web Log - May, 2005
Web Log - April, 2005
Web Log - March, 2005
Web Log - February, 2005
Web Log - January, 2005
Web Log - December, 2004
Web Log - November, 2004
Web Log - October, 2004
Web Log - September, 2004
Web Log - August, 2004
Web Log - July, 2004
Web Log - June, 2004