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Kyle Rittenhouse, George Floyd and Darryl Brooks
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Despite the hysteria and threats of violence from the left-wing loons on CNN and MSNBC, a jury of 11 white people and one black person convicted three white defendants of murder of a black person, Ahmaud Arberry.
The leftist loons claimed that white jurors only vote in a racist, bigoted way, but instead they examined the evidence, and the evidence was overwhelming that Ahmaud Arberry had been murdered.
So the court system worked correctly.
It was pretty clear that the Democrat KKK attitudes and hatred of blacks were still in place during the Arberry trial.
A defense attorney stood up and asked for black pastors to be banned from the courtroom. A Southern judge last century would probably have granted that request, but today, the request is idiotic. Today, it takes a Democrat attorney steeped in KKK hatred to try it.
Also, in closing arguments, the defense tried to appeal to the white jurors by saying that Arberry was no victim, and that he was in the neighborhood with "dirty khakis with no socks to cover his long dirty toenails." This would certainly have worked with the Democrats in the KKK in the last century, and would probably also have worked with many Democrats steeped in KKK hatreds today, but instead it appears to have badly backfired, even among the white Democrats on the jury.
These acts by the defense attorneys were typical of the KKK in the last century, and they would have worked. They're less common today because they frequently backfire, even among many Democrats. But it's clear that racism and hatred of blacks still runs deep in the Democrat party. This dates back to the Civil War, and the fury that Democrats felt that the Republicans under Abraham Lincoln freed the slaves and won the war, causing the Democrats to create the KKK and the Jim Crow laws, and spend the next century lynching and killing blacks, and frequently using the epithet, "The South Shall Rise Again!"
In fact, Joe Biden grew up in that hate-filled atmosphere, with a mentor of Democrat Party scion Robert Byrd, who was a Grand Cyclops in the KKK and a recruiter for the KKK. If Joe Biden had been on the Arberry jury, he might well have found the defendants innocent. Robert Byrd would almost certainly have done so.
It's impossible to overstate what's going on - almost a resurgence of the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) in the Democrat party. You have thousands of blacks being killed in the streets of Chicago, LA, San Francisco, Baltimore, and other cities run by Democrats. Killing blacks is just as much the policy of Democrats today as it was in the last century. That's not true of all Democrats, just as it wasn't true of all Democrats in the last century, but it is true of a large segment of the Democrat party today. And, unfortunately, that segment of the Democrat party is now the loony left that is running the Democrat party, and they appear to want to re-fight the Civil War, in the hope of winning it this time and re-enslaving the blacks.
The evidence was overwhelming that Kyle Rittenhouse had fired only in self defense, and so he was found innocent. So the court system worked correctly.
Derek Chauvin was found guilty last year of murdering George Floyd. So the court system worked correctly.
These are two more examples of how the court and jury system worked correctly, so it makes no sense for the people on the loony left to want to destroy the American court system by packing the Supreme Court and by making every case about racial justice.
On CNN, the Arberry commentary focused on the dog whistles and racial baiting that we described earlier to get the white people in the jury not to convict.
CNN commentary on the Rittenhouse verdict was apoplectic.
I saw the Jim Acosta show on CNN shortly after the Rittenhouse verdict. Recall that Acosta made a jackass of himself every day during the Trump administration by screaming stupid questions and epithets at Trump during press conferences, but being a jackass only made him a hero to the loony left, and made him a star at CNN.
The contrast between Fox News and CNN was enormous. Analysts on Fox News almost universally said that finding Rittenhouse not guilty was the correct verdict, based on the overwhelming evidence. But they contrasted that to the event, which they said was a tragedy because two people had been killed, and they said that Rittenhouse was not a hero.
But Acosta was unable to distinguish between those two things -- finding innocence and not being a hero. What I've found is that many people in general are unable to do fourth grade math or even second grade math, to the extent of being baffled by fourth grade percentage problems. AOC is a prime example of this, as she showed her stupidity in that issue over the Amazon HQ issue in 2019. AOC is one of the stupidest people in Washington, and the only people who are stupider than she is are her millions of followers in the Democrat party.
It takes a certain grasp of logic to be able to do fourth grade math, and people who can't do fourth grade math should not be expected to distinguish between seeing Rittenhouse as not guilty and Rittenhouse as some kind of hero. Even worse, you have to be really stupid not to understand that a case where a white man shoots three white men is not a racial issue. Acosta is clearly that stupid. CNN attracts commentators who are too stupid to do fourth grade math. From what I've seen, Fox News attracts commentators who are intelligent enough to do fourth grade math.
CNN headquarters is in Atlanta, where the Arberry trial was held. Atlanta is a hotbed of Democrat racists and idiots, which makes it the perfect location for CNN. Nonetheless, the brilliant American jury system, which is the best in the world and in the history of the world, came to the correct verdict.
Anyone who watched the Kyle Rittenhouse trial could see that the innocence verdict was justified, but left-wing Democrat politicians and journalists became hysterical, and called for the virtual detruction of the American jury system. Many of the claims made in the following quotes were lies, made by people who knew they were lies, but who didn't care:
Mayor Bill de Blasio: "This verdict is disgusting and it sends a horrible message to this country. Where is the justice in this? We can't let this go. We need stronger laws to stop violent extremism from within our own nation. Now is the time."
Joy Reid, MSNBC: We knew, but it’s sometimes helpful to remind ourselves how America was designed to work. It continues to work as designed. We have learned again what is considered legal for *some* people to do in America. It’s helpful to know where you stand in your country. Be safe out there.
Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes: "Over the last few weeks, many dreaded the outcome we just witnessed. The presumption of innocence until proven guilty is what we should expect from our judicial system, but that standard is not always applied equally. We have seen so many black and brown youth killed, only to be put on trial posthumously, while the innocence of Kyle Rittenhouse was virtually demanded by the judge."
NY Governor Kathy Hochul: "Kyle Rittenhouse used an assault weapon to kill two people. This is not justice. If there was any question about why we need strong gun safety laws, this is your answer. This should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. We have a lot of work to do."
Reverend Al Sharpton: "These continue to be dark days for black people killed at the hands of people that believe our lives do not matter. This verdict was not only outrageous and dangerous, it was also an obvious signal that encourages and notifies "vigilantes" that they can continue to use violence to assert their power, and more importantly that they are above the criminal justice system when they do. While it is disheartening that we take one step forward, then several steps back, let this be a reminder that our activism cannot take a backseat"
Eric Adams, NYC Mayor-elect: "This decision is an indictment of irresponsible laws that make our society far more violent and unsafe under the guise of personal freedom and so called self-defense. It also sends an extremely dangerous message to those in our country who seek agendas of anarchy - often born in prejudice and ignorance - to wreak havoc in their communities and potentially murder their neighbors. We should not be shocked. We should be focused on swift and righteous action."
Jumaane Williams, NYC Public Advocate: "This trial and the verdict it produced are clear and devastating representations of the way our country and our legal system view innocence and guilt, vigilantes and villains, race and the fight against racial injustice. A white seventeen year old killing protesters with a weapon of war is celebrated and acquitted. A black seventeen year old walking the community with a bag of Skittles is criminalized and murdered.
Rep. Jerry Nadler: "This heartbreaking verdict is a miscarriage of justice and sets a dangerous precedent which justifies federal review by DOJ. Justice cannot tolerate armed persons crossing state lines looking for trouble while people engage in First Amendment-protected protest."
Nikole Hannah-Jones, NY Times: "In this country, you can even kill white people and get away with it if those white people are fighting for Black lives. This is the legacy of 1619."
George Takei, former Star Trek actor: "Justice denied is a body blow to our national psyche. On trial was not only a killer, but a system that continues to kill. Today that system defeated true justice, once again. But mark these words: We will never stop fighting for what is right and just."
In the midst of all this, Darryl E. Brooks, a black male in late 30s, killed six people and injured 60 others by running them over intentionally with a car as they marched in the Christmas Parade in Waukesha, Wisconsin, on Sunday.
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Brooks had previously been out on bail after pimping out a 16 year old girl who got pregnant, and for attempting to kill the mother of his baby by running her over with his car, and almost succeeding in killing her, and after numerous other felonies, dating back to 1999. He was out on bail because of a "woke" District Attorney who was following "woke" policies of not jailing convicted criminals. Brooks was let out of jail, and he repeated the crime of killing people by running over with this car, this time succeeding spectacularly.
Examination of Darryl Brooks's media posts shows him to be a man filled with hatred for whites and women.
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This reminds me of the e-mail messages found on Hunter Biden's laptop, which showed similar hatred of blacks. Like father, like son.
Not surprisingly, CNN did not mention the Darryl Brooks case.
The main lesson learned from all of these cases is that the brilliant American jury system works. As everyone points out, there are reforms to be made. In this case, there were many complaints about prosecuters in both the Arberry and Rittenhouse cases. But the American jury system, at its core, is the best for determining guilt or innocense.
Another lesson to be learned is that racial hysteria doesn't always work, and shouldn't work. Race hysteria was raised in all the cases I've mentioned, and in the end, race didn't matter in any of them.
A third lesson to be learned is the importance of video evidence. This is a relatively new development in jury trials, and it fits in well with the American jury system, since it provides a new and very powerful means for juries to assess what happened.
The fourth lesson is that racism and hatred of blacks still runs deep in the Democrat party. Unfortunately, this is evident in the policies of Joe Biden and the Democrat party leadership. This is evident in policies that lead to the deaths of thousands of blacks in Democrat-run cities, and it's also evident in the drive for "Critical Race Theory," whose purpose if to victimize and marginalize blacks, as was done in the last century by the KKK and the Jim Crow Laws.
So we would have to agree that there's a lot of work to be done to cure systemic racism, but that work has to be done almost exclusively within the Democrat party, especially its leadership.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
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(25-Nov-2021)
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After one year, the military drills affirm the continuation of Abraham Accords
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Israel's navy is taking part in joint maritime drills with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and the United States in the Red Sea. This is the first time that Israel's navy has publicly taken part in naval drills with Gulf Arab states.
According to a statement by the US Naval Fifth Fleet, which is headquartered at a base in Bahrain:
"The five-day exercise includes at-sea training aboard amphibious transport dock ship USS Portland (LPD 27) focused on visit, board, search and seizure tactics. The training will enhance interoperability between participating forces' maritime interdiction teams."It is exciting to see U.S. forces training with regional partners to enhance our collective maritime security capabilities," said Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of NAVCENT, U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces. "Maritime collaboration helps safeguard freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade, which are essential to regional security and stability."
This statement doesn't say so, but the drills are aimed at Iran. In March and April, Iran and Israel allegedly attacked each others ships in the Persian Gulf with missiles and explosive. And the US Navy had to fire warning shots during encounters with Iranian vessels in the Gulf.
The Abraham Accords were announced on August 13, 2020, and signed by the participants in September. The Accords were negotiated by Donald Trump's administration between Israel and UAE, later joined by Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. Trump described the Accords as historic because they were the first public normalization of relations between Israel and an Arab country since the agreement with Jordan in 1994 and the agreement with Egypt in 1979.
There was a lot of skepticism that the Accords would survive for long, but after a year they've even survived an 11-day war between Israel and Gaza. Israel has exchanged ambassadors with the other signatories, and has initiated trade relations with them. The joint naval exercises that Israel is holding with UAE and Bahrain indicate that the Accords are continuing as intended.
One (simplistic) way of looking at the Mideast is that Israel is part of two major fault lines.
One fault line is Sunni vs Shia. This conflict is pitting Iran versus the Arab Gulf nations, and Israel against its will has been drawn into this conflict by Iran. The Abraham Accords directly address this fault line.
The other fault line is Israel vs Palestinians. This conflict comes out of the bloody 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. This fault line is completely unrelated to the Abraham Accords, and is still headed for conflict as much as before.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
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(12-Nov-2021)
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Lukashenko's revenge following Ryanair plane forced landing
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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There is a growing possibility of military clashes across the border between Poland and Belarus, as Belarus attempts to push thousands of migrants into Poland. The policy is in revenge for sanctions imposed after Belarus illegally forced a passenger plan to land, in order to jail a reporter on the flight.
Hundreds of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia are trapped in Belarus on the border with Poland, with thousands more migrants on the way to the border. Poland has installed a barbed-wire border fence to prevent the migrants from crossing, but the migrants are using wire cutters and shovels, supplied by the Belarus military, to cut the wire or dig up the fence.
The Belarus military is standing behind the migrants, shooting their guns into the air, threatening any migrants who attempt to turn back from the border. Poland's military is standing on the other side of the barbed-wire fence, blocking any attempts by the migrants to cut the barbed wire and cross into Poland.
Poland has deployed more than 12,000 soldiers to the border and a volunteer Territorial Defense force was put on alert, according to Poland's defense ministry.
The European Union is describing the Belarus policy as "weaponizing migrants." Belarus has extended this policy from Poland to Lithuania and Latvia.
The reason that these thousands of migrants are in Belarus is because they were solicited on the orders of dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus has been soliciting migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia to travel to Belarus, and has provided free air travel for them to do so. The migrants are promised an opportunity to cross the border into Poland or Germany.
The current crisis began on May 23, when a Ryanair passenger plane with 126 passengers crossing Belarus air space was ordered by Belarus air traffic controllers to land in the Belarus capital city Minsk, supposedly because of a "potential security threat on board." The demand was backed up by a Belarus fighter jet.
When the plane landed in Minsk, Belarus security forces boarded the plane and arrested a Belarus journalist, Raman Pratasevich, and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega. Pratasevich had been a vocal critic of Lukashenko, including accusations of rigged elections. After his arrest, Pratasevich was paraded in staged events.
In June, the EU, US and UK imposed coordinated sanctions on Belarus. The EU has banned flights from Balavia and other Belarus airlines from its airports and airspace. The EU is also planning to sanction airlines that are cooperating with Belarus in flying migrants from the Mideast and Africa to Belarus.
Already, Poland's defense ministry has thanked Iraq for having Belarus close its consulates in Baghdad and Irbil that were giving tourist visas to migrants.
These sanctions have infuriated Lukashenko. He has retaliated and taken revenge by launching his program of weaponizing migrants -- transporting them from the Middle Ease and Africa, and then trying to push them into Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Video from the border is showing a tense military standoff. Polish border guards have used teargas to push back people who tried to cut through the barbed wire. Gunshots were thought to come from Belarus border guards, shot in the air to frighten migrants and prevent them from moving away from the border.
Hundreds of migrants have set up a tent city on the Belarus side of the border in a forested area, where they are essentially trapped.
As more thousands of migrants are headed to the same area, it seems certain that there will be some kind of military confrontation on the border. There is the possibility that lives will be lost, or that a gunfight will break out between the border guards on the two sides. And with Russia supporting Belarus, it's possible that a clash could spread.
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(9-Nov-2021)
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Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88)
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Iraq's prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi escaped an assassination attempt early Sunday morning, when three explosives-laden drones attacked his residence. The army shot down two of the drones, but a third reached its target and exploded, wounding six guards. Al-Kadhimi was unharmed. The residence is in Baghdad's heavily fortified "Green Zone."
The drone attack follows widespread riots and protests on Friday, where Iran-backed militias were protesting the results of the October 10 parliamentary elections. The Iran-backed Fatah Alliance won only 17 seats, down from 48 seats in the previous parliament.
Because of the Iran-backed protests, many people assume that the drone attacks were engineered by the pro-Iran militias, especially because Iran has used drone attacks to attack American bases along the border with Syria. However, the militias deny responsibility, and claim that the drone attacks were staged. So nobody has claimed responsibility for the failed drone attacks.
Iraq had two generational crisis wars during the last century, the 1920 Iraqi Revolution and the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. In both of those wars, the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias united behind the war effort against the enemy -- the British colonists in 1920 and the Iranians in the 1980s. The Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) was one of the longest and bloodiest wars of the 20th century. Chemical weapons and large-scale missile attacks were used. There were millions of casualties and refugees in both countries. ("Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (1-Apr-2007)")
Today, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, so there is no chance of a renewal of the Iran-Iraq war. But the horrors of the war are still well-remembered, and it's still the objective of Iran to obtain political control of Iraq. Not surprisingly, these attempts have triggered anti-Iran protests in Iraq.
Iran gained a great deal of popular support in Iraq in 2016-2018, when Iran trained and funded Shia militias called the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs), which played a major role in expelling ISIS from the country. So it was during the 2018 parliamentary elections that the Iran-backed Fatah Alliance gained 48 seats.
However, there were already widespread anti-Iran riots in September 2018 in Basra, which is in southern Iraq, adjacent to Iran. Protesters attacked or set fire to Iran-linked buildings and the Iranian consulate. They also attacked almost every office belonging to the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces. (See "9-Sep-18 World View -- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war")
In October 2019, there were widespread anti-Iran political protests, this time in Baghdad, with protesters calling for political reforms, and end to corruption, and an end to sectarian system of government that guarantees government control to groups depending on religious sect. There was also a call to end foreign intervention, with a particular focus on Iran.
So by the time of last month's parliamentary elections, the pro-Iranian militias had lost almost all of the good will they had gained from fighting ISIS, and the pro-Iranian Fatah political alliance lost two-thirds of the seats it had previously held.
So the protests on Friday were quite different from the protests in October 2019. The latter protests had been led by students who were protesting corruption and Iranian influence. Friday's protests led by Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militias, claiming that last month's parliamentary elections were rigged.
The biggest winner in last month's parliamentary elections appears to be the Sadrists, the political party of Muqtada al-Sadr, who got 73 seats. Those with a long memory will recall that al-Sadr is a highly respected Shia cleric who opposed American intervention in Iraq during the 2000s. Today he strongly opposes all foreign intervention, including intervention by the US, Iran and Turkey.
With or without the drone attack, there's a feeling that Friday's violent protests represent a turning point in Iraq. According to one analyst, Muqtada al-Sadr had been using the time since the October 10 election to negotiate with other political groups in order to form a governing coalition, and Friday's violent protests have forced those negotiations to end.
There is a growing conflict between the Sunnis and the Sadrists on one side, and the pro-Iranian Fatah alliance on the other side. In the meantime, the Iranians are attempting to pressure the Iraqi government to demand with the withdrawal of American forces, just as the Americans had to withdraw from Afghanistan. This conflict will continue during the next few months, but it seems unlikely that America will be forced to withdraw from Iraq, as long as the Americans are seen as a countervailing force to Iran, especially in view of the disastrous results of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
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(8-Nov-2021)
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UN warns Myanmar / Burma of 'crimes against humanity'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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For six weeks after the February 1 military coup in Myanmar, the army, known as the Tatmadaw, took a measured approach to the peaceful pro-democracy demonstrations. However, this was followed by "an uptick in violence and much more violent methods used to suppress the demonstrators," according to a UN report issued on Friday:
"We do feel now having observed the events and collected preliminary evidence that the facts show a widespread and systematic attack on the civilian population amounting to crimes against humanity.This was happening in different places at the same time, indicating to us it would be logical to conclude this was from a central policy. And, also, we saw that particular groups were targeted, especially for arrests and detentions that appear to be without due process of law. And this includes, of course, journalists, medical workers and political opponents."
According to Nicholas Koumjian, the UN official who issued the report, there are more and more groups within Myanmar calling for a full civil war, which is not surprising, as the junta continues to escalate its violence.
It's worth pointing out that the junta really couldn't care less what some United Nations agency claims. Myanmar is in the opening stages of a full-scale generational crisis civil war, and no outside political pressure can have much of an effect, just as a tsunami could not be stopped by a UN agency.
In fact, none of this is particularly surprising. Myanmar entered a generational Crisis era in 2016, and the Buddhist army began by committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas. So now, the army is performing the same "clearance operations" against the Chin people in northern Myanmar, and is preparing similar operations against other non-favored ethnic populations.
According to China's state media, there are over 10,000 Chinese nationals in Myanmar waiting to cross the border into Ruili, China. Regulations and restrictions by China's government are permitting only about 100 people to cross the border into China each day. The restrictions were put in place in June because of the instability in Myanmar, and also because the delta variant of the Covid virus is spreading in China, and steps are being taken to block it.
In addition, there's also been a sharp increase in cross-border crimes against China or Chinese citizns, such as telecommunications and internet fraud, gambling and money laundering. Chinese citizens living in northern Myanmar are being told register their identities, and to confess any crimes they've committed.
Ruili is a city of 260,000 residents, and they've suffered almost 200 days under lockdown, because of the two factors -- China's Covid policy and the turmoil in Myanmar. According to the city's mayor: "The epidemic has ruthlessly looted [Ruili] over and over again, draining the city’s last trace of life and devouring the hope of its residents. Please save this hero city! Please pay attention to this beautiful border town!"
There is also anti-Chinese violence in Myanmar far from the Chinese border. Many people in Myanmar blame China for supporting the junta in its violence against peaceful protesters, and Chinese factories and citizens in Yangon have been attacked in Yangon. The Chinese have deflected these accusations by blaming the attacks on incitement by the United States.
China is actually pursuing a dual strategy in Myanmar. At the top level, and in the national media, China is not referring to a "coup," but to euphemisms like a "cabinet reshuffle." On the other hand, local media in China are referring to the violence in Myanmar following the "coup."
The coup and the threat of civil war in Myanmar have been a lot more than a mere annoyance to the Chinese. They represent a threat to China's grand geopolitical strategy for world domination.
China has for years been supplying weapons to Myanmar's government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi until the February 1 coup. Since then, the Chinese have cautiously maintained good relations with the junta, because of Myanmar's part in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
As I've written in the past, China's grand plan is that it will become the leader of the world within 5-10 years, and that almost all countries will gladly accept China's leadership. This goes beyond invading and annexing Taiwan. It also means that the 20+ border disputes that China has with India, Russia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and other countries will be settled amicably in China's favor, and that includes China's control of the South China Sea.
China's vision is like Isaiah 2:4, which says: "The Lord will judge between the nations and will settle disputes for many peoples. They will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation will not take up sword against nation, nor will they train for war anymore." This is exactly China's delusional vision, except that the role of the Lord will be played by the Chinese Communist Party. (Incidentally, that's why China is promising to stop increasing coal production by 2030.)
According to the delusion, the only possible reason why this plan might fail is that the United States would be jealous of China's power and might come to the defense of Taiwan and Japan. That's why China is developing hypersonic and ballistic nuclear missiles, in order to attack the United States and bring about this millennium of peace.
So now getting back to Myanmar, the major BRI project in Myanmar is the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is strategically essential to China's grand plan, since it provides a corridor for the transport of people and goods between China's Yunnan province and the Indian Ocean, through Myanmar's ports on the Andaman Sea. This is similar to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which connects China's Xinjiang province to Pakistan's Gwardar port, which China now controls.
Both CMEC and CPEC are essential to China's delusional grand plan, and so the civil war in Myanmar represents a threat in two different ways -- because it could spill over into the population of China, and because it would threaten the strategically important CMEC.
So China is taking a cautious approach to the Myanmar junta. The junta leaders couldn't care less what a United Nations agency says, but they might listen to what the Chinese say. However, what's going on in Myanmar is a generational crisis civil war, and the drive to fight the war is deeply organic and buried deep in the DNA of all the parties. The Chinese probably understand that because of their own deeply organic ethnic atrocities, directed at the Uighurs and Tibetans, so all they can do is hope that the Myanmar war will fizzle out, which is highly improbable in a generational Crisis era.
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(7-Nov-2021)
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Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations'
by
John J. Xenakis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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When Myanmar's Buddhist army conducted genocidal "clearance operations" against the Muslim Rohingyas in southern Myanmar in 2016-2018, they met little resistance. In fact, the Rohingyas were like sheep being led to slaughter. The Buddhists burned down entire villages, tortured, beat and killed males, raped females, and shot down civilians who tried to flee. Except for an occasional terrorist act, the Rohingyas did nothing to fight back, but instead fled across the border into Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of them still live in refugee camps.
As we described two weeks ago, the Myanmar junta has been massing troops in northwest Myanmar in Chin State, and has been talking about "clearance operations." Analysts at the United Nations see this as a sign that the junta is planning to do the same thing to the Chin people as they did to the Rohingyas. (See "24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter")
The junta military, known as the Tatmadaw, have already begun "clearance operations" in earnest. Over the weekend, the military shelled a town in Chin State and burned down more than 160 buildings, including businesses and churches. The humanitarian aid agency Save the Children said its offices were in one of the buildings that was “deliberately set ablaze.”
So they're repeating what they did to the Rohingyas in the past. Another thing they're repeating is to claim that the villagers set the fires and burned down their own homes and villages. Nobody was stupid enough to believe their claim that the Rohingyas burned down their own villages, and nobody is stupid enough to believe those claims now.
However, we're seeing a big difference between the Rohingyas versus the Chin and other anti-junta rebels. While the Rohingyas simply fled or died like sheep, the anti-junta rebels are fighting back.
According to one report, the Tatmadaw in June attacked the town of Pale in northwest Myanmar with the usual tactics, where soldiers looted homes, raped women and set a village on fire. But instead of simply fleeing, the villagers formed a militia of some 2,000 fighters, mostly farmers, and counterattacked, killing 400 troops, according to their claims, which are probably exaggerated.
However, the point is that since the junta took power on February 1 in a coup, some 250 rebel groups have emerged, ranging from small urban underground cells to militias comprising thousands, according to reports. These rebels have not previously fought in wars, but their grandparents did, in the bloody Burma crisis civil war from 1948 to 1958. It's this historical memory that makes these rebels willing to fight, where the Rohingyas were not.
As I've explained in the past, Myanmar entered a new generational Crisis era in 2016, 58 years after the end of the last crisis war. (See "24-Jun-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads")
Since 2016, the Tatmadaw have become increasingly violent and belligerent within their own country. They committed genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, and now they're turning to other ethnic groups within Myanmar. This will not end quickly. This is turning into a repeat of the ten-year Burmese crisis civil war that ran between 1948-1958, and involved multiple ethnic groups. History is now repeating itself.
ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others, even when the member governments committed atrocities.
ASEAN held three days of summit meetings last week at which the biggest news was that Myanmar's military junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, was not invited to participate. This was a shocking move by the organization, which has previously made a point of not criticizing the internal actions of its member states.
ASEAN members felt the need to take a stand in order to maintain relevance as a regional organization. There are several developments that seemed to make ASEAN increasingly marginalized.
In 2012, ASEAN failed to issue a joint statement -- for the first time ever -- over disagreements on how to deal with China's claims to the disputed South China Sea. At that time, ASEAN's rotating chairmanship was held by Cambodia, whose leader is Hun Sen, who is a close ally of China. With Cambodia's help, China attempted to get ASEAN to endorse, or at least not object to, China's claims, but the Philippines objected, and so ASEAN took no position at all. ASEAN received a great deal of international criticism for failing to take a stand on China's illegal claims. (See "21-Nov-12 World View -- China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting")
More recently, ASEAN's role as a regional power bloc has been challenged by other alliances led by the United States. One is the so-called Quad, a bloc formed by Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, to counter the influence of China. The most recent is the ANKUS agreement (Australia, UK, and US), where the US and UK will help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. (This has triggered a major international diplomatic disagreement, since Australia had previously agreed to purchase diesel-powered submarines from France, and the ANKUS agreement was formed without notifying France.)
Few people doubt that Myanmar is headed for a major civil war, with the danger that it will spill over into its neighbors, especially Thailand, India and China. As the civil war overwhelms the region, it remains to be seen whether ASEAN can be relevant.
Sources:
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.)
(2-Nov-2021)
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