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Web Log - March, 2022

Summary

10-Mar-22 World View -- Asian politics confounded by Russia's debacle invasion of Ukraine

South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia's invasion of Ukraine far from resolution
Russia's invasion a shock to the Chinese Communists
South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right
The Regeneracy
The future of Generational Dynamics

Russia's invasion of Ukraine far from resolution

Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.

Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was supposed to succeed within a few days, is currently looking like a debacle.

Russia's president Vladimar Putin ordered hundreds of thousands of troops into the battle, along with tanks, artillery, warplanes, and dozens of warships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to Ukraine's south.

Russia is conducting massive genocide and war crimes, bombing and flattening innocent women and children in one village after another causing enormous suffering, specifically targeting schools and hospitals, driving millions of refugees into neighboring countries -- for no discernible reason at all except the sociopathic genocidal mind of Putin.

Russia has become an international pariah state, condemned by 141 countries in the United Nations General Assembly, with 23 abstentions (including China), and only five countries opposing the condemnation: North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria, and Russia itself. Thanks to international sanctions, Russia's economy is becoming increasingly distressed.

While Putin is being condemned as an international war criminal, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being viewed as a "Churchillian hero," starting with his refusal to flee the country in the way that Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani had fled.

The Ukrainian people have turned out to be extremely resilient, much more so than anyone expected, after Russia had simply rolled over Crimea in 2014. They've prevented Russian troops from taking control of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and other large cities that Russia has attacked, and so far Kiev has remained out of reach.

The Ukrainians have killed hundreds of Russians, destroyed dozens of tanks, and shot down tens of Russian warplanes.

This does not mean that Russia will be defeated. Far from it. Vladimir Putin has a history of reacting to losses by using increasingly horrific war crimes. In Syria, Russia sent missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sared gas to kill large groups of people. The barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons specifically targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill as many women and children as possible, Since chlorine gas is heavier than air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking women and children out into the open, where they can be targeted by missiles and gunfire.

As Putin becomes increasingly desperate, he is expected to increasingly horrific violence, including the tactics used in Syria and in Chechnya. If he becomes desperate enough, it's even possible he'll resort to tactical nuclear weapons.

However, even if he manages to kill Zelenskyy and subdue the country, the battle will be far from over. An occupation army of a couple of hundred thousand people is not nearly enough to fight an insurgency in a country of 44 million people. Furthermore, there will be millions of Ukrainian refugees in neighboring countries who will be prepared to do what they can to defeat the Russian occupancy. This would be extremely expensive for Russia to sustain, and it's not believed he could do so for long.

Russia's invasion a shock to the Chinese Communists

China and Russia have been historic enemies, with the Chinese and Russian people hating each other, but the two countries have been united by their common enemies, the United States and the West. Nonetheless, China has found it impossible to give a full-throated endorsement to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China is a close ally of Ukraine, and has invested heavily in Ukraine.

I've previously described long-term delusional geopolitical strategy of the Chinese Communists to gain hegemony over the entire world. This analysis was based on a CCP newsletter forwarded to me by a web site reader. (See "16-Dec-20 World View -- China's delusional geopolitical strategy")

Guided by China's leadership, countries throughout Africa, Asia and the Mideast will put aside their disagreements. Old hatreds will be mended by necessity, to attract capital for investments. These include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China will create a "global colossal," of dozens of countries in a massive multi-country partnership, bound together by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The plan specifies concessions to be made by one nation after another to "mend old hatreds," but it doesn't contain a single example of China making any concession whatsoever.

According to the CCP newsletter: "The big question is how America will respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it. If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and Russia."

This whole delusional fantasy strategy has been torn apart by Russia's Ukraine invasion. The Chinese Communists had assumed that the world would welcome Chinese hegemony, but it's clear that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would also make China as much a pariah as Russia is. The whole strategy of using BRI to make the world love China has been shown to be ridiculous, even to the delusional Chinese Communists.

Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communists will abandon their plans of world domination. To the contrary, the Chinese Communists will be a desperate, and will adopt the most horrific tactics, including a nuclear weapons attack on the United States. China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for years, and is too well invested in that goal to abandon it. Furthermore, China has been preparting a nuclear attack on America for decades, and will launch it as a time of its choosing.

South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right

Yoon Suk-yeol, leader of the People's Power Party (NY Post)

Yoon Suk-yeol, leader of the People's Power Party (NY Post)

Former prosecutor and conservative Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party won South Korea's presidential election on Wednesday, defeating the liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, which had formerly been led by the incumbent president Moon Jae-in. Yoon will take office on May 10.

Yoon is expected to take a harsher line towards China and North Korea than did his predecessor Moon, and is expected to be more closely aligned with US policy than Moon. For example, Yoon has voiced a need to deploy another American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) anti-missile system to deter North Korea. The 2016 installation of the first Thaad battery in South Korea triggered massive economic retaliation from China that lasted nearly two years.

By the way, Yoon has developed a reputation for being a "non-woke" politician. His wife, Kim Keon-hee, has been attacked by feminist activists for criticizing sexual harassment "opportunists."

The Regeneracy

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have undoubtedly been shocked at the unity of the international community to Russia's invasion of campaign. Putin certainly expected to take advantage of a split among the countries of Nato, but now the Nato countries seem completely unified. Even Germany will be sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, in a major reversal of policy.

This is the generational theory "Regeneracy" that I've been talking about for years. I've been writing about it domestically, as the regeneracy of civic unity, where Americans put political differences aside and unite against the common enemy. Today we're seeing the same thing internationally, as countries around the world unite against Russia.

The regeneracy has also united Western-linked countries in Asia. South Korea's election aligns it more closely with America. Japan has strongly condemned Russia's invasion, and has announced that it will end "peace talks" about the Kuril Islands dispute.

The interesting political battle in the next few months will be over energy. So-called "green" policies in America and Europe have been an absolutely disaster, as they've made Europe much more dependent on Russia, and they've raised oil prices so that America and Europe are funding Russia's war in Ukraine. There is enormous pressure from both Republicans and Democrats on the Biden administration to abandon the disastrous "green" policies, and the abandonment of those policies will be a major sign of the regeneracy in domestic politics.

In my opinion, the US will try to stay out of this European war, just as the US at first stayed out of the European wars in 1914 and 1939. The US was able to stay out of those wars for 2-3 years. In my opinion, the European war will trigger a full-scale world war within a few months or at most a couple of years, with the exact timing dependent on China's actions, especially in Taiwan.

The future of Generational Dynamics

I am 77 years old, soon to be 78, and I have absolutely no desire to even try to live through World War III. I'm miserable, depressed, in intermitten pain, alone, surviving on Social Security, and disgusted with the Cassandra Curse, which says that I'm treated abusively, even when (or especially when) I'm right.

Twenty years ago I began developing Generational Dynamics, a methodology for analyzing historical and current events, based on Forrester's System Dynamics from MIT applied to generational flows, and incorporating Chaos Theory and technology forecasting. My web sites, http://generationaldynamics.com and http://gdxforum.com, contain over 6,000 articles with thousands of analyses and predictions about hundreds of countries, and they've all come true or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. In addition, I've written four books on the history of Iran, China and Vietnam, and the history and theology of Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Confucianism and Daoism. The major prediction over the last 20 years has been that we are headed for a global financial crisis and a world war against China. That time is now approaching. The Russia-Ukraine war is just beginning, and it is expected to cause a chain reaction that will lead to a major European war, and within the next year or so to a world war and a global depression. Nuclear weapons will be used.

I published four books, thinking that they would create some sort of legacy that would survive me. And they're really good books, in my opinion. I'm really proud of them. You would think by this time, they would have generated some interest somewhere, but they haven't. I've only sold a few dozen copies of each.

I apologize for writing so few articles these last few months. I simply no longer have the energy to write as much as I used to, especially in view of the Cassandra Curse. However, I do try to contribute something to the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Nonetheless, Generational Dynamics may be reaching the end of the line.

After I'm gone, very few people will even remember Generational Dynamics, and many of them will remember it only with scorn and derision as the invention of an old Boomer fossil. There will be nobody whose selary depends on keeping Generation Dynamics alive, so Generational Dynamics will die with me.

That's why I'm extending an invitation to any individuals, think tanks, universities, or other organizations that would like to take on the responsibility on further development of Generational Dynamics. There's wealth of information on my books and on my web sites. Furthermore, I am available right now to provide guidance and even to give a professional or college course over zoom. So this is the right time.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-Mar-2022) Permanent Link
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