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Thread: Post election poll







Post#1 at 10-31-2011 08:47 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,501]
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10-31-2011, 08:47 PM #1
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Post election poll

Assume that one of the major GOP candidates wins the nomination and then the general election. Assume further that the GOP victory followed a campaign based entirely on the need to balance the budget immediately using only spending cuts. Assume more "Tea Party" Congressmen who strongly believe in the need to cut spending as the solution to our economic problems were elected. Finally, assume the GOP gains control of all three branches of government in Jan 2013.

Previous GOP presidential candidates have all talked about cutting government spending (often called reducing the size of government) yet once elected they have never done this. President Reagan and Bush I's failure to do this could plausibly be blamed in part on Democratic control of at least one house of the legislature during their entire terms of office. This did not apply to Bush II, who had a GOP Congress and yet substantially increased government spending including the creation of a new welfare entitlement.

My question concerns whether a new GOP administration will return to the policy of the past and ignore the deficit, or whether rise of the Tea Party will make things different.
Last edited by Mikebert; 10-31-2011 at 08:58 PM.







Post#2 at 10-31-2011 09:52 PM by TeddyR [at joined Aug 2011 #posts 998]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mikebert View Post
Assume that one of the major GOP candidates wins the nomination and then the general election. Assume further that the GOP victory followed a campaign based entirely on the need to balance the budget immediately using only spending cuts. Assume more "Tea Party" Congressmen who strongly believe in the need to cut spending as the solution to our economic problems were elected. Finally, assume the GOP gains control of all three branches of government in Jan 2013.

Previous GOP presidential candidates have all talked about cutting government spending (often called reducing the size of government) yet once elected they have never done this. President Reagan and Bush I's failure to do this could plausibly be blamed in part on Democratic control of at least one house of the legislature during their entire terms of office. This did not apply to Bush II, who had a GOP Congress and yet substantially increased government spending including the creation of a new welfare entitlement.

My question concerns whether a new GOP administration will return to the policy of the past and ignore the deficit, or whether rise of the Tea Party will make things different.
No matter who is elected, they will need to ignore deficit management and will be forced to spend, spend, spend.







Post#3 at 11-01-2011 08:09 AM by James50 [at Atlanta, GA US joined Feb 2010 #posts 3,605]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mikebert View Post
Assume that one of the major GOP candidates wins the nomination and then the general election. Assume further that the GOP victory followed a campaign based entirely on the need to balance the budget immediately using only spending cuts. Assume more "Tea Party" Congressmen who strongly believe in the need to cut spending as the solution to our economic problems were elected. Finally, assume the GOP gains control of all three branches of government in Jan 2013.

Previous GOP presidential candidates have all talked about cutting government spending (often called reducing the size of government) yet once elected they have never done this. President Reagan and Bush I's failure to do this could plausibly be blamed in part on Democratic control of at least one house of the legislature during their entire terms of office. This did not apply to Bush II, who had a GOP Congress and yet substantially increased government spending including the creation of a new welfare entitlement.

My question concerns whether a new GOP administration will return to the policy of the past and ignore the deficit, or whether rise of the Tea Party will make things different.
Without a filibuster proof Senate, nothing changes. It will be "spend" as usual.

James50
The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. - G.K. Chesterton







Post#4 at 11-01-2011 08:18 AM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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When deep into a 4T I don't think business as usual is a choice for any political party.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#5 at 11-02-2011 11:30 AM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,501]
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Quote Originally Posted by James50 View Post
Without a filibuster proof Senate, nothing changes. It will be "spend" as usual.

James50
Since there exist a fair number of "blue dog" Democrats willing to vote with the GOP on deficit-reduction issues, I don't see how a fillibuster-proof majority would be necessary.

But OK, assume the GOP had 60 Senate seats. Would that change your poll response? If so from what to what?







Post#6 at 11-02-2011 11:55 AM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
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In my opinion they would not be "forced" to slash spending, they would do so triumphantly and with gusto. They would also slash taxes. These guys are serious. They mean every word they are saying. And the budget doesn't need a supermajority.







Post#7 at 11-02-2011 12:46 PM by JohnMc82 [at Back in Jax joined Jan 2011 #posts 1,962]
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No Republican wants to touch the biggest sources of spending. If anything, military spending will increase - but they won't want to piss off their oldest and most socially conservative supporters with any meddling in SS or Medicare.

There might be some other cuts around the edges, but none of that will end up looking significant compared to the biggest budget items.

Of course, the hypothetical situation here is very hypothetical. While a "generic Republican" polls well against Obama, none of the actual candidates come close.
Those words, "temperate and moderate", are words either of political cowardice, or of cunning, or seduction. A thing, moderately good, is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper, is always a virtue; but moderation in principle, is a species of vice.

'82 - Once & always independent







Post#8 at 11-02-2011 02:41 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,115]
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This could be a very interesting election in a Chinese curse sort of way.

The Republicans have a massive demographic problem that they are trying to mitigate by eroding the right to vote in the states where they took complete control of the government in the so called purple states after the 2010. In terms of the national election states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida are likely to go GOP because of the de facto elinination of Democratic leaning voter groups from the rolls.

If this ruse works, and we do end up with a GOP trifecta I expect to see Bush II era and fiscal policies on steroids.
First, as soon as the deficit hawks are sure that they have a Republican president for the next 4 years they will put away their calculators and magically quit swawking about the budget like they do everytime the GOP holds the White House.
Taxes on higher income groups will be cut, military contractors will live in a wet dream and it will all come crashing down sometime before 2016 because somewhere along the way, most likely about the time that gas prioces hit 6 dollars a gallon at the pump America will go into a true depression and lose global currrency reserve status.


Have fun...as the ship of fools sails on and on...
Last edited by herbal tee; 11-02-2011 at 02:48 PM.







Post#9 at 11-02-2011 02:52 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by James50 View Post
Without a filibuster proof Senate, nothing changes. It will be "spend" as usual.

James50
Do you see it as necessary to have a filibuster proof Senate to say "no"? All spending is a postive not a negative action.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#10 at 11-02-2011 03:11 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2 View Post
In my opinion they would not be "forced" to slash spending, they would do so triumphantly and with gusto. They would also slash taxes. These guys are serious. They mean every word they are saying. And the budget doesn't need a supermajority.
I could see them slashing spending in the social domain, but tax cutting and security spending would rise, as would GOP-niche spending, like the Farm program. Rising deficits and decreasing GDP (a likely product of thsi economic philosophy) will make for a mess. On the whole, spending will shift focus, get less efficient but remain high. Taxation wil decline for the rich and corporations. It may rise for the res of us.

Assume that Ohio and Wisconsin are the go-to models.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#11 at 11-04-2011 03:36 AM by '58 Flat [at Hardhat From Central Jersey joined Jul 2001 #posts 3,300]
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Not that she will even win the Republican nomination, let alone the general election, Michele Bachmann has sounded off about taxes, regurgitating the far right wing of her party's sickening main talking point on the subject:

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.co...-income-taxes/
But maybe if the putative Robin Hoods stopped trying to take from law-abiding citizens and give to criminals, take from men and give to women, take from believers and give to anti-believers, take from citizens and give to "undocumented" immigrants, and take from heterosexuals and give to homosexuals, they might have a lot more success in taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.

Don't blame me - I'm a Baby Buster!
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