A reader has asked me to post my Generational Dynamics World View
columns on this forum. I used to post regularly on this forum, though
there was some controversy. But I'm happy to post again if there's
interest.

Generational Dynamics is built on the brilliant foundational work on
generational theory by William Strauss and Neil Howe. What I've done
in the last ten years is to extend their work to all places and times
in history, and to develop the Generational Dynamics Forecasting
Methodology that uses generational theory to forecast trends in
countries around the world today. The success of this forecasting
methodology shows how brilliant and prescient the work of Strauss and
Howe was.

Over the years, hundreds of people have written to me to thank me for
giving them the information they need to protect themselves and their
families, or because Generational Dynamics is the only methodology
that tells what's really going on in the world. I make no money from
Generational Dynamics, but provide it as a public service.

I hope that those who choose to read these World View columns find the
information interesting and useful. If there are any questions, feel
free to post them here or contact me privately.

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia celebrates 100th anniversary of its air force with expansion announcement
• Russia's PM Medvedev warns of Chinese occupation of Siberia and Far East
• Russia's Medvedev blames 'slacker attitude' for rocket failure
• The 'Pussy Riot' trial in Russia becomes a defining political event
• The renaissance of Tsarist Russia
• Putin/Medvedev split confirms that 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia was preplanned

****
**** Russia celebrates 100th anniversary of its air force with expansion announcement
****


Poland's Sparks aerobatic team performs during Russia's air show on Saturday (Xinhua)

Russia's president Vladimir Putin led a three day air show outside
Moscow in celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Russian
Air Force. Putin commented on the heroism of the pilots during
World War II and announced a major expansion:

"The history of the Russian Air Force knows the
examples of real bravery and self-sacrifice, hard work and
outstanding technical achievements. Military aviation has always
been of great importance in our country. And now when we are
implementing large-scale modernization of the army and the fleet,
the future of the air force is definitely among the
priorities. The Russian Air Force is going to play a great part in
ensuring the national security. Our air bases are now busy
implementing new training schemes, with strategic jets carrying
out regular flights and multi-purpose aviation groups being
formed. The army will receive over 600 new planes and 1,000
helicopters by the year 2020."

Voice of Russia

****
**** Russia's PM Medvedev warns of Chinese occupation of Siberia and Far East
****

Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday issued a warning
that a huge influx of immigrants from China into Siberia and Far East
threatened Russia's control of the region and its rich resources.
This is not the first time that Medvedev has raised these concerns.
(See "22-Mar-11 News -- Russian offer of Japanese resettlement in Siberia raises xenophobic tensions"
from last year, following Japan's earthquake and
tsunami.) However, his recent comments have been the strongest yet.
He announced that two new nuclear submarines would be sent to the
Pacific fleet, and added that it was "important not to allow negative
manifestations ... including the formation of enclaves made up of
foreign citizens." He added that "More than eight million foreign
citizens came to Russia in the first six months of 2012 alone."
Russia's Far East suffered rapid depopulation since the fall of the
Soviet Union in 1991. During the 1990s, there was enormous poverty
and no support from the chaotic Moscow government. As a result,
population fell by as much as 50% in the region, as millions migrated
east, mostly to the European part of Russia. Reuters and Ria Novosti

****
**** Russia's Medvedev blames 'slacker attitude' for rocket failure
****

Russia's botched launch of two telecom satellites, one Russian and one
Indonesian, earlier this week has drawn a furious response from prime
minister Dmitry Medvedev:

"I don't know the reason why the satellites perished,
be it the booster, a mechanical defect, a slacker attitude or all
of it combined and multiplied by the traditional slacker
attitude. But it's simply impossible to tolerate this any
longer. We are losing our authority and billions of
rubles."

The satellites cumulatively cost $100 million to $150 million.
Moscow Times

****
**** The 'Pussy Riot' trial in Russia becomes a defining political event
****


Nadia (22), Masha (24) and Katya (29) of Pussy Riot (AFP)

A brief protest by three girls in Russia has turned into a major
political event that's embarrassing president Vladimir Putin and the
Russian Orthodox Church. In February, the three girls charged up to
the front of Moscow's Cathedral of Christ the Saviour during a service
and sang a song criticizing Putin. They were ejected from the Church,
and the whole thing might have been forgotten, except that the girls
put the whole performance up on YouTube. Putin is particularly vain
and thin-skinned about any sort of criticism and, along with Russian
Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, demanded harsh punishment for the
performance. The trial started last week. The prosecutors said that
they were possessed by the devil, having "twitched and jumped
satanically, throwing their legs up, rolling their heads and calling
out very insulting and blasphemous words." The trial is so absurd and
ludicrous, even by Russian standards, that it's drawn international
protests. While performing in Moscow on Tuesday, Madonna said, "I
know there are many sides to every story and I mean no disrespect to
the church or the government, but I think these girls ... have done
something courageous and they have paid the price for this act and I
pray for their freedom. They deserve the right to be free." A
verdict is to be announced on August 17. A light sentence will be
considered a major political humiliation for Putin and the Church,
while a harsh verdict will be embarrassing to Putin and the Church.
Spiegel (Germany) and Mail&Guardian (S. Africa)

****
**** The renaissance of Tsarist Russia
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Pussy Riot trial
is part of the rejection of an atheist Soviet Russia, and a return to
the days of Tsarist Russia, when the government and the Church were
inextricably linked. Putin appears to consider himself something of a
new Tsar anyway. In 1922, Nicolai Lenin (Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov)
wrote this memo to the Politburo on the destruction of the Russian
Orthodox Church in order to harvest the Church's wealth:

"We must pursue the removal of church property by any
means necessary in order to secure for ourselves a fund of several
hundred million gold rubles (do not forget the immense wealth of
some monasteries and lauras). Without this fund any government
work in general, any economic build-up in particular, and any
upholding of soviet principles in Genoa especially is completely
unthinkable. In order to get our hands on this fund of several
hundred million gold rubles (and perhaps even several hundred
billion), we must do whatever is necessary. But to do this
successfully is possible only now. All considerations indicate
that later on we will fail to do this, for no other time, besides
that of desperate famine, will give us such a mood among the
general mass of peasants that would ensure us the sympathy of this
group, or, at least, would ensure us the neutralization of this
group in the sense that victory in the struggle for the removal of
church property unquestionably and completely will be on our
side."

The Church was virtually destroyed by the Bolshevik Revolution, with
buildings destroyed and clerics jailed and murdered. World War II was
a generational Awakening era war for the Soviet Union, and the Church
began to revive at that time simply because Josef Stalin needed its
help to defeat the Nazis. Russia is theoretically a secular state,
but now Russia is in a new generational Crisis era, and under Putin
the relationship between the government and the Church has been
growing constantly. A similar transition is occurring in Russia's
historic enemy, Turkey. Turkey became a secular state under Attaturk
in 1924, after the collapse of Ottoman Empire. But now, in this new
Crisis era, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is restoring some of
the conservative religious links of the Ottoman era. From the point
of view of generational theory, this parallel religious path being
followed by these two historic enemies is quite remarkable.

****
**** Putin/Medvedev split confirms that 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia was preplanned
****

A serious political split between Russia's president Vladimir Putin
and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev has been opened over a revelation
that Putin preplanned the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and went
behind Medvedev's back. At the time of the invasion, Putin and
Medvedev were playing a little game. Putin had been President for two
terms, and could not run for a third consecutive term, according to
the Constitution. And so, Putin arranged for Medvedev to become
President for one term, while Putin became Prime Minister, and lied
about the arrangement to the public. It now turns out that they lied
to the public as well over the August, 2008, invasion of Georgia.
Putin had already pre-planned the invasion when Medvedev took over as
President. Medvedev wanted to negotiate the crisis, but it's now been
revealed that Putin illegally went around him and launched the
invasion, which resulted in Russia annexing two Georgia provinces,
South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia's parliamentary election in
December, followed by the presidential election that returned Putin to
the presidency, were both so obviously fraudulent that most Russians
now believe that Putin's entire presidency is fraudulent. The new
revelation opens a split between Putin and Medvedev that may expose
more fraud. Jamestown

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Russian Air Force, Vladimir Putin,
Dmitry Medvedev, Siberia, Japan, Pussy Riot,
Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, Tsarist Russia,
Nicolai Lenin (Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov), Josef Stalin,
Turkey, Ottoman Empire, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Georgia, South Ossetia, Abhkazia

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This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's neighbors pick sides in South China Sea dispute
• Egypt's Morsi fires the army chief and announces a Constitutional Declaration
• Egypt forces fight Sinai militants, in biggest battle since 1973

****
**** China's neighbors pick sides in South China Sea dispute
****


Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen at ASEAN meeting, where he strongly sided with China against Vietnam and Philippines. (Reuters)

One of the purposes of the formation of the 10-member Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was to present a united front to the
members' powerful neighbor, China. However, ASEAN unity was shattered
at last month's meeting, when Cambodia strongly sided with China
against Vietnam and the Philippines in negotiations over control of
the South China Sea. Unlike many other southeast Asian countries,
where students usually wish to learn English as a foreign language,
Cambodian students are learning Mandarin Chinese. China also has
growing influence with Laos and Myanmar (Burma) as well. As I've been
writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that China, Pakistan
and the Sunni Muslim countries will oppose the West, India, Russia and
Iran in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. This new
analysis gives greater insight into how the countries of southeast
Asia might pick sides in that war. Reuters

****
**** Egypt's Morsi fires the army chief and announces a Constitutional Declaration
****

President Mohamed Morsi stunned Egypt on Sunday with two dramatic
moves to take power from the army and give it to himself:

• He fired Defense Minister and Field Marshall Mohamed Hussein
  Tantawi, 76, who had headed the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces
  (SCAF), the junta that ran Egypt since Hosni Mubarak was deposed in
  February 2011. He fired other military chiefs as well, and replaced
  them.
  
• He unilaterally threw out a Constitutional Addendum that SCAF had
  announced several weeks ago to give itself almost total control over
  the government. He announced a new Constitutional Declaration giving
  himself similar powers.

The move comes one week after Egyptians were shocked to learn that 16
Egyptian soldiers were ambushed and killed in Sinai by jihadist
militants, near the border with Israel. Field Marshall Tantawi and
SCAF have been extremely unpopular since they took control early last
year, and last week's ambush seems to have sealed their fate.

The text of President Morsi's new Constitution Declaration is as follows:

"1- The 17 June 2012 constitutional addendum is to be
abrogated.

2- Article 25, clause 2 of the 30 March 2011 Constitutional
Declaration is to be replaced with the following text: "And he
[the president] will undertake all his duties as stipulated by
Article 56 of this declaration." [Article 56 outlines the
authorities of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and grants
the latter full executive and legislative powers, now held by
Morsi.]

3- If the Constituent Assembly [tasked with drafting a new
constitution] is prevented from doing its duties, the president
can draw up a new assembly representing the full spectrum of
Egyptian society mandated with drafting a new national charter
within three months of the assembly's formation. The new draft
constitution is to be put before a nationwide referendum within 30
days after it is written. Parliamentary elections are to be held
within two months of the public’s approval of the draft
constitution.

4- This new Constitutional Declaration is to be published in
Egypt's official gazette and will be put into effect the following
day."

There were initial fears expressed that SCAF would mobilize troops to
stop Morsi's "coup," but so far there have been no signs of anything
like that happening. The Muslim Brotherhood's Morsi is Egypt's first
democratically elected President in the country's 5000 year history.
CS Monitor and Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Egypt forces fight Sinai militants, in biggest battle since 1973
****

One issue that seems to have united secularists, liberals, Salafists
and Islamists in Egypt is the insistence that law and order must be
reimposed in the Sinai region where 16 Egyptian border guards were
killed last week. The army began a military crackdown in earnest on
Wednesday, and on Sunday killed five militants in a firefight where
the Egyptian troops came under fire from rocket-propelled grenades.
Under the 1979 peace agreement with Israel, Egypt is not permitted to
bring troops into Sinai, but Israel is now demanding that Egypt bring
the region under control, and so the fighting is the most seen since
the 1973 war with Israel. There is some evidence that the Sinai is
becoming the new great attraction for militant Jihadists who wish to
fight against Israel and a moderate Egypt. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Burma, Laos,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Vietnam, Philippines, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi,
Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Supreme Council of the Armed Forces,
SCAF, Muslim Brotherhood, Sinai, Israel

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LOL, Mr. "Silent Generation Feminists are Evil" is back.

World War II was a generational Awakening era war for the Soviet Union

Sorry, but this sounds like complete nonsense. The Depression and WWII Crisis in the US was absolutely nothing in comparison to the society wide breakdown and chaos during the utter tyranny of Lenin and Stalin.

"The prosecutors said that
they were possessed by the devil, having "twitched and jumped
satanically, throwing their legs up, rolling their heads and calling
out very insulting and blasphemous words." '

How the Russian prosecutors could tell that (per description) from any other rock concert performance with dancing is beyond me! And probably beyond anybody under 80!

Originally Posted by Odin

LOL, Mr. "Silent Generation Feminists are Evil" is back.

I know, Odin, but he's an avid foreign affairs buff, and I read his blog for that.

Ye Olde Satanic Silent EE-vul FEE-male! (Insert witches' cackle per the media. Double bubble toil and trouble ... waving my pentagram in the air ... pity the black cat passed to the realm of Bast a couple of years ago.)

Originally Posted by Tussilago

Sorry, but this sounds like complete nonsense. The Depression and WWII Crisis in the US was absolutely nothing in comparison to the society wide breakdown and chaos during the utter tyranny of Lenin and Stalin.

It was a nasty period for Russia, even as WWI was a nasty time for Britain; but the real revolutionary game changing periods were the Russian Revolution era and the Fall of the Soviet Union.

Originally Posted by Tussilago

Sorry, but this sounds like complete nonsense. The Depression and WWII Crisis in the US was absolutely nothing in comparison to the society wide breakdown and chaos during the utter tyranny of Lenin and Stalin.

Wasn't in S&H who said that Soviet Russia lasted exactly one cycle or saeculum? I'm pretty sure it's from "The Fourth Turning". This means that the 1T would have been the institutionalizing period after the revolution in the 20s and 30s under Lenin and Stalin and the 2T would actually include WWII in the 40s and 50s under Stalin. The 3T would probably be the 60s and 70s under Kruschev, and the 3T the 80s and 90s with the fall of Communism under Gorbechev and Yeltsin. It's strange to think of it this way, but it makes sense when you consider it in the context of all four turnings..

Originally Posted by Gianthogweed

Wasn't in S&H who said that Soviet Russia lasted exactly one cycle or saeculum? I'm pretty sure it's from "The Fourth Turning". This means that the 1T would have been the institutionalizing period after the revolution in the 20s and 30s under Lenin and Stalin and the 2T would actually include WWII in the 40s and 50s under Stalin. The 3T would probably be the 60s and 70s under Kruschev, and the 3T the 80s and 90s with the fall of Communism under Gorbechev and Yeltsin. It's strange to think of it this way, but it makes sense when you consider it in the context of all four turnings..

Justin77 lived in Russia for several years and according to him it's been in a 1T since Putin took power. He's been there, I trust his judgment.

Folks like Xenakis make the mistake of equating devastating wars with 4Ts.

*** 14-Aug-12 World View -- Banks, companies and investors prepare for collapse of the euro

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syrian anti-government rebels say they shot down a fighter jet
• Analysis: Finding a Global Solution to the Syrian Crisis
• Planned Saudi industrial city excludes mixed gender workers
• Greece continues downward spiral as economy contracts 6.2%
• Banks, companies and investors prepare for collapse of the euro

****
**** Syrian anti-government rebels say they shot down a fighter jet
****


Syrian rebels with captured pilot -- still image from video (al-Jazeera)

A rebel group fighting against the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad says that they shot down a government plane and captured one
of the pilots. They've posted YouTube video showing the jet crashing
and another of the pilot giving a statement. The Syrian regime
confirms the plane crash, but said that the crash was caused by
technical problems during a regular training mission. If the rebel
claim turns out to be true, then it will be one more major
psychological victory following a string of high profile defections
from the al-Assad regime. Al-Jazeera

****
**** Analysis: Finding a Global Solution to the Syrian Crisis
****

The following is from Javier Solana, a Nato expert writing
in the Moscow Times:

"The feeling is growing stronger by the day that
Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime is approaching a tipping
point. Kofi Annan, the United Nations and Arab League special
envoy, has abandoned his efforts to implement an internationally
agreed six-point plan to end the violence. Now the international
community must think seriously about how to minimize the dangers
inherent in Syria's domestic turmoil. ...

In particular, there is a growing danger of Sunni retaliation
against the Alawite minority, which comprises only 12 percent of
the population but controls the government, the economy and the
army. The Alawites, who overcame second-class citizenship only
when Assad's Baath party came to power in 1963, now believe that
their very survival is linked to that of the regime.

If the Syrian opposition does not take the Alawites' concerns
seriously, the country could be wracked by years of civil war,
worse than the conflict that devastated Lebanon from 1975 to
1990."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the last paragraph is
completely wrong. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so
this kind of civil war is literally impossible at this time. As I've
written many, many times, the current conflict in Syria will not get
worse but will fizzle. The precise scenario cannot be predicted, but
right now it appears to be trending towards a situation where al-Assad
steps down, and the remaining factors form some kind of unity
government.

What's interesting about Solana's comments is his claim that the
survival of the Alawites at the hands of the Sunnis is in question.
"Survival" is too strong a word, but with 2/3 of the population, the
Sunnis are going to be dominating a post-Assad government, and there
will be bitter, lingering memories of the massive slaughter of Sunnis
by Alawites in 1982, as well as the war crimes by al-Assad's regime
against Sunnis in the current conflict.

What's really interesting is the comparison to the country next door,
Iraq. Iraq is also in a generational Awakening era, and when its
civil war fizzled in 2007, it formed a unity government, but this time
the Sunnis are in the minority, and the Shia are in the majority.
With the Alawites linked to the Shias against the Sunnis, it could be
said that Syria is going through Iraq's civil war with the roles
reversed. An argument could even be made that Bashar al-Assad is now
playing the role of Saddam Hussein. Moscow Times

****
**** Planned Saudi industrial city excludes mixed gender workers
****

A lot of people like to work without being bothered by having people
of the opposite sex around the workplace, and that's the case in Saudi
Arabia, where a new single-sex industrial city is being planned for
female workers. The city will not be entirely closed to males, as
there will be areas where males will be permitted. LA Times

****
**** Greece continues downward spiral as economy contracts 6.2%
****


Athens graffiti: GREECE NEXT ECONOMIC MODEL (Kathimerini)

Greece's downward spiral continues to accelerate, with the second
quarter of 2012 being the worst in years . The economy has contracted
14 of the last 15 quarters, with the last quarter's contraction at
6.2%. In May, the European Commission forecast that Greece's economy
would shrink only 4.7% in 2012, but now that forecast has to be
revised to a much higher contraction. As we've been saying for years,
no solution exists to Greece's debt problem other than a major world
financial crisis, despite the recitations of politicians. Kathimerini

****
**** Banks, companies and investors prepare for collapse of the euro
****

The 1930s Great Depression was worsened by high protective tariffs
imposed by countries around the world. Tariffs are now considered
unfashionable, but in today's financial crisis, another form of
protection is being practiced in Europe. There's a growing sense of
resentment in both lending and borrowing countries -- the lending
companies resenting having to bail out profligate neighbors, and the
borrowing countries having to suffer the demands of people lending
them money. A sharp measure of the increasing nationalistic
protectionism in Europe is that banks and companies are refusing to
allow their money to flow across national borders, for fear that the
euro will collapse. More and more banks and companies are refusing to
take any credit risks at all in Europe. The European Central Bank
(ECB) is trying to fill the gap by providing liquidity, but that's
only fueling fear that the euro is approaching collapse. There are
two countries that have benefited from these fears: Germany and the
United States. Excess liquidity is flowing into both these countries,
despite low or even negative bond yields (interest rates), because
financial execs are opting for safety over yield. Spiegel

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Javier Solana,
Alawites, Sunnis, Shias, Iraq, Saudi Arabia,
Greece, European Central Bank, ECB

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Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

"The prosecutors said that
they were possessed by the devil, having "twitched and jumped
satanically, throwing their legs up, rolling their heads and calling
out very insulting and blasphemous words." '

How the Russian prosecutors could tell that (per description) from any other rock concert performance with dancing is beyond me! And probably beyond anybody under 80!

Hi Pat, it's been a while.

Isn't watching someone twitch and jump satanically one of life's most memorable moments?

John

Originally Posted by Tussilago

World War II was a generational Awakening era war for the
Soviet Union

Sorry, but this sounds like complete nonsense. The Depression and WWII
Crisis in the US was absolutely nothing in comparison to the society
wide breakdown and chaos during the utter tyranny of Lenin and
Stalin.

This was debated in hundreds of postings in this forum six or seven
years ago. There's little doubt that WW II was an Awakening era war
for Russia, but David Kaiser wrote a more nuanced analysis. I don't
recall all the details, but he said that killing of much of the
Prophet generation at that time is one of the reasons why a new crisis
in Russia in recent years has been delayed.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This was debated in hundreds of postings in this forum six or seven
years ago. There's little doubt that WW II was an Awakening era war
for Russia, but David Kaiser wrote a more nuanced analysis. I don't
recall all the details, but he said that killing of much of the
Prophet generation at that time is one of the reasons why a new crisis
in Russia in recent years has been delayed.

Crisis delayed? Russia's Crisis was in the 80s and 90s. Wouldn't they be nearing the end of the 1T at this point?

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

It was a nasty period for Russia, even as WWI was a nasty time for Britain; but the real revolutionary game changing periods were the Russian Revolution era and the Fall of the Soviet Union.

WWI to the end of the WWII was a nasty period in general in continental Europe. Still, it's pretty much doable to seperate out more or less distinct and credible Turnings from this perpetual crisis era. The most difficult one is probably the European Great Power 3T, but I'm hitherto sticking to 1913-1929 as a working hypothesis. From The Titanic to the Wall Street Crash so to speak.

Russia and the Soviet Union between Kerensky and Stalin however is an almost impossible animal. How do you reconcile the concept of distinct Turnings relative to that perpetually ongoing disaster of massive repression and incessant mass murder? How can you even see someting as delicate as public mood swngs through all those buckets of spilled blood?

Originally Posted by Gianthogweed

Wasn't in S&H who said that Soviet Russia lasted exactly one cycle or saeculum? I'm pretty sure it's from "The Fourth Turning". This means that the 1T would have been the institutionalizing period after the revolution in the 20s and 30s under Lenin and Stalin and the 2T would actually include WWII in the 40s and 50s under Stalin. The 3T would probably be the 60s and 70s under Kruschev, and the 3T the 80s and 90s with the fall of Communism under Gorbechev and Yeltsin. It's strange to think of it this way, but it makes sense when you consider it in the context of all four turnings..

I don't recall reading that, but the only small problem I have here is there is essentailly nothing 1T about the Bolshevik Terror epoch under Lenin, nor anything 2T about the Moscow Trials, socialism in one country policies or hardening nationalistic attitudes of WWII Stalinism. WWI-1953 is basically a severe Crisis era throughout.

Originally Posted by Tussilago

WWI to the end of the WWII was a nasty period in general in continental Europe. Still, it's pretty much doable to seperate out more or less distinct and credible Turnings from this perpetual crisis era. The most difficult one is probably the European Great Power 3T, but I'm hitherto sticking to 1913-1929 as a working hypothesis. From The Titanic to the Wall Street Crash so to speak.

Russia and the Soviet Union between Kerensky and Stalin however is an almost impossible animal. How do you reconcile the concept of distinct Turnings relative to that perpetually ongoing disaster of massive repression and incessant mass murder? How can you even see someting as delicate as public mood swngs through all those buckets of spilled blood?

Well that's the thing. Because the government was so totalitarian and repressive, the actual "mood" was stifled and could only be recognized as the moods of those in power. So, from the point of view of the leaders of the USSR, the 20s and 30s was like a 1T, building up of the instititutions and putting down any dissent. Sort of similar to how our American High of the 50s was all about conforming, except in Russia the people were forced to conform, in the US we did it pretty much willingly. Then in the 40s and 50s you had the Awakening era, the USSR rises as a world power. There was a youth rebellion, but it didn't amount to much because they were all killed under Stalin. The third turning was the peak of Russia's power, but also the beginning of its downfall under Krushchev. And then, finally, the Crisis, when the cracks in the system became irreparable. Gorbachev capitulated to the West, and finally communism fell. Yeltsin was president in its aftermath as they tried to pick up the pieces and build a new system of government.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This was debated in hundreds of postings in this forum six or seven
years ago. There's little doubt that WW II was an Awakening era war
for Russia, but David Kaiser wrote a more nuanced analysis. I don't
recall all the details, but he said that killing of much of the
Prophet generation at that time is one of the reasons why a new crisis
in Russia in recent years has been delayed.

"Prophet generation"?

You mean the guys who walked straight into the kill zones of German MG 34's and were slaughtered by their thousands simply because falling back had meant being gunned down by "friendly" NKVD machinegun fire? All those young people who wanted nothing but getting out and had the "cynicism" to even prefer an Axis uniform to a Soviet one, or joining the invader to rotting to death from ill-treatment and starvation in a German POW camp?

Christ...

I mean really. Prophet generations are known to be the product of at least relatively indulged childhoods. How would getting a bullet in your worker's brains by the red guard for marching for a loaf bread in 1918, being starved to death as a "kulak" and "enemy of the people" if you happened to be dirt poor and live in the countryside in the 20's, or be sent to Siberia for stealing a bicycle translate into "indulgence"?

Originally Posted by Tussilago

"Prophet generation"?

You mean the guys who walked straight into the kill zones of German MG 34's and were slaughtered by their thousands simply because falling back had meant being gunned down by "friendly" NKVD machinegun fire? All those young people who wanted nothing but getting out and had the "cynicism" to even prefer an Axis uniform to a Soviet one, or joining the invader to rotting to death from ill-treatment and starvation in a German POW camp?

Christ...

I mean really. Prophet generations are known to be the product of at least relatively indulged childhoods. How would getting a bullet in your worker's brains by the red guard for marching for a loaf bread in 1918, being starved to death as a "kulak" and "enemy of the people" if you happened to be dirt poor and live in the countryside in the 20's, or be sent to Siberia for stealing a bicycle translate into "indulgence"?

That's what happens when a Prophet generation grows up in a totalitarian state. This isn't a hard science or anything.

Originally Posted by Gianthogweed

Well that's the thing. Because the government was so totalitarian and repressive, the actual "mood" was stifled and could only be recognized as the moods of those in power. So, from the point of view of the leaders of the USSR, the 20s and 30s was like a 1T, building up of the instititutions and putting down any dissent. Sort of similar to how our American High of the 50s was all about conforming, except in Russia the people were forced to conform, in the US we did it pretty much willingly. Then in the 40s and 50s you had the Awakening era, the USSR rises as a world power. There was a youth rebellion, but it didn't amount to much because they were all killed under Stalin. The third turning was the peak of Russia's power, but also the beginning of its downfall under Krushchev. And then, finally, the Crisis, when the cracks in the system became irreparable. Gorbachev capitulated to the West, and finally communism fell. Yeltsin was president in its aftermath as they tried to pick up the pieces and build a new system of government.

So now the Bolshevik mass murder of the peasants and wholesale repression of Russian society is a "conformism" akin to the American 50's that was "all about conforming" and, wait for it, I guess being "prosecuted" by that horrible totalitarian Death Nazi, Joseph McCarthy?

When Strauss and Howe decided to name the 50's period the "American High" they were, in other words, actually thinking about concentration camps!

Don't you realise how completely idiotic this sounds?

Well... ?


Anyway, the Trotskyite-Leninist nomenclatura lived in such a world apart in every sense of the word that whatever mood swings occur among them is completely irrelevant to the dominating mood in the Soviet society at large.

Originally Posted by Tussilago

So now the Bolshevik mass murder of the peasants and wholesale repression of Russian society is a "conformism" akin to the American 50's that was "all about conforming" and, wait for it, I guess being "prosecuted" by that horrible totalitarian Death Nazi, Joseph McCarthy?

When Strauss and Howe decided to name the 50's period the "American High" they were, in other words, actually thinking about concentration camps!

Don't you realise how completely idiotic this sounds?

Well... ?


Anyway, the Trotskyite-Leninist nomenclatura lived in such a world apart in every sense of the word that whatever mood swings occur among them is completely irrelevant to the dominating mood in the Soviet society at large.

For the general populace it was really just one really long crisis period, so you have to look at it from the point of view of the leaders.

Originally Posted by Gianthogweed

That's what happens when a Prophet generation grows up in a totalitarian state. This isn't a hard science or anything.

Nonsense. What happened was that the unfortunate Lost, G.I. and Silent of Russia fell into the hands of the most bloodthirsty and vengeful set of ultra radical Missionary true believers the world has ever seen. Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky Dzerzchinsky... the lot of them.

Alright, Yezhov and Beria might have been Losts, but you get the picture...

Originally Posted by Gianthogweed

For the general populace it was really just one really long crisis period, so you have to look at it from the point of view of the leaders.

Why? That would be measuring something completely different to what Turning Russia would be in at the time. Frankly, I'd find it rather uninteresting.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Hi Pat, it's been a while.

Isn't watching someone twitch and jump satanically one of life's most memorable moments?

John

Concert-goers pay good money for it!

Originally Posted by Tussilago

Why? That would be measuring something completely different to what Turning Russia would be in at the time. Frankly, I'd find it rather uninteresting.

Alright, then how would you measure it?