Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

What you're describing here is a very serious crime, much more serious
than rape. I could believe that a vengeful woman would lie about
rape, but I wouldn't think that TWO women would BOTH be willing to
risk jail terms after a discussion over tea. Nor would I think that
the Swedish prosecutor would not detect this criminal conspiracy under
close questioning, or that he would risk his own reputation by going
along with the conspiracy.

The biggest problem with the Assange affair is that there is no case. Sleeping with a woman who afterwards is regretting he didn't use a condom does not qualify as rape. The second problem is that in Absurdistan, also known as Sweden, they might twist it to qualify as rape anyway, or at least sexual harassment. In either case, putting Julian Assange on trial is not really what it's about. It's essentially about getting him in custody so he can be extradited to the United States. It's dirty political pressure all over this thing.
That the two women got together to frame Assange is not rumor, it's fact, and follows from how the original allegations were handed to the police, which they went to visit together. Apparently, his sleeping with both without telling and being insincere about contraception was enough to awaken the male chauvinist pig persuivant in the heart of the hardened feminist, post facto, and she then encouraged the other little left wing princess. It's all so typical and predictable.
Perjury might be a more serious crime than rape overseas, but it isn't in Sweden. Maximum sentence is two years, but rather more likely would be a six month sentence and paying damages. However, that eventuality is completely theoretical since the Swedish judicial apparatus is so completely committed to even lie about Swedish justice regulations in order to avoid having a hearing in Britain and forcing Assange back to Sweden to stand trial. The only reason for that is of course to extradite him to the US. The proof of their full complicity and of US political pressure is the simple fact that they have known all along that there simply does not exist an actual case against Julian Assange, but they keep at it, unflinching in their quest for 'justice'.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Police used tear gas and rubber bullets and deployed a helicopter to
quell unrest in Amiens in northern France on Monday evening. They
were responding to rioting by around 100 local youths who used
buckshot, fireworks and other projectiles to injure 16 police
officers. There is fear that the unrest may spread and become more
violent, as happened in 2005. ( "Paris riots continue for seventh night"
) Major rioting
is nothing new in France, with the French Revolution in 1789 and the
Paris Commune in 1870 each killing tens of thousands of people in
Paris alone. It's thought that poverty is the underlying cause of the
riots, especially among immigrants from Africa. AFP

And of course, this kind of immigrant rioting has nothing to do with French culture or the French national psyche, the Paris Commune or the French Revolution. Christ. Like this (arranged) but somehow illustrative video, we're talking about a culture all its own:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU7bFpPJiww

Originally Posted by Tussilago

The biggest problem with the Assange affair is that there is no case. Sleeping with a woman who afterwards is regretting he didn't use a condom does not qualify as rape. The second problem is that in Absurdistan, also known as Sweden, they might twist it to qualify as rape anyway, or at least sexual harassment. In either case, putting Julian Assange on trial is not really what it's about. It's essentially about getting him in custody so he can be extradited to the United States. It's dirty political pressure all over this thing. ...

I find this strange, but not implausible. It's strange because to the best of my knowledge, Sweden does not derive any benefits from the US relations. As you mention, if the US is using strong armed tactics, then would that not be similar to what the US blamed Saddam doing exact same thing to Kuwait? Then of course this whole thing gets even weirder when over the top PC politics/laws are intertwined with the Swedish side and crass hypocrisy is involved on the US side. From the Wikileaks philes, we do know the US is doing things it shouldn't be doing and any sane country would just either by choice or accident just let Assange escape into exile in S. America.

*** 29-Aug-12 World View -- Egypt's military action against Sinai Bedouins comes to a standstill

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's military action against Sinai Bedouins comes to a standstill
• Egypt defends need for army tanks in Sinai
• Greece's border guards fail to stop the influx of illegal immigrants
• Turkey still unsure about Syria buffer zone as refugees pour in

****
**** Egypt's military action against Sinai Bedouins comes to a standstill
****


Mohamed Morsi

The August 5 ambush by armed Bedouin militants in Sinai that killed 16
Egyptian soldiers shocked the Egyptian public, and has substantially
raised the profile and power of Egypt's new president Mohamed Morsi.
Morsi immediately sent Egyptian forces into the Sinai, after obtaining
permission from Israel to violate their 1979 peace treaty. However,
the military action has been halted, as a result of a negotiated
week long true to allow further discussions between the army
and the terror groups. However, the truce may have been a necessity
for the army, since most of the armed extremists have fled into
into the mountains. Morsi's supporters claim four accomplishments
in this military campaign:

• He's developed a public reputation as a tough fighter against
  terror and an enemy of radical Islamic groups.
  
• The army has damaged some of the terror infrastructure in
  Sinai.
  
• Morsi initially deployed tanks to Sinai without prior coordination
  with Israel, allowing him to claim that he doesn't fear a showdown
  with Israel.
  
• Morsi used the terror attack in the Sinai as a pretext to expel
  top army officers whom he considered a threat to his power
  base.

Israeli officials are concerned that in the event of a future
conflagration with Palestinian terror organizations in Gaza, Egypt's
government will respond by pressuring Israel - for instance, by
deploying large army concentrations in border areas, in contravention
of the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel. Haaretz and Al-Shorfa

****
**** Egypt defends need for army tanks in Sinai
****

Israeli officials are unhappy that Egypt's leaders deployed tanks to
the Sinai Peninsula before consulting with Israeli leaders following
the August 5 ambush. Egypt's new defense minister Abdel-Fattah
el-Sissi defended his country's increased military presence in the
Sinai Peninsula, saying it is needed to fight terrorism and is
temporary. According to Egyptian officials, el-Sissi reaffirmed
Cairo's commitment to the 1979 peace accord. AP

****
**** Greece's border guards fail to stop the influx of illegal immigrants
****


Greece

Arrivals of illegal immigrants into the northern regions of Greece on
the border with Turkey have plummeted, as a result of an increase in
the number of border guards. However, migrants, chiefly Afghans,
Syrians and Palestinians, are now reverting to more southern routes,
across the islands in the Aegean Sea. Greece is the major pathway for
migrants to enter the European Union. As the influx of migrants into
the country continues unabated, the number of apparently racially
motivated attacks has increased. Kathimerini

****
**** Turkey still unsure about Syria buffer zone as refugees pour in
****

French President François Hollande is pressing to support a buffer
zone on Syrian soil for Syrian refugees from the continuing slaughter
by the Bashar al-Assad regime against women and children in
residential neighborhoods. This would be a strip of land on Syrian
soil protected from Syrian assault by Western allies. Turkey has been
talking about establishing such a buffer zone for almost the entire 18
months since the Syrian conflict began, but is still unsure, even
though 80,000 Syrian refugees are now in refugee camps in Turkey.
However, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu emphasized last
week that Turkey would not accept more than 100,000 refugees and that
the creation of a buffer zone could be necessary to contain a refugee
flow onto its soil. Zaman (Istanbul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Israel, Bedouins, Mohamed Morsi,
Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, Greece, Turkey, Aegean Sea,
Syria, Ahmet Davutoglu

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*** 30-Aug-12 World View -- Syria's Bashar al-Assad gives lengthy TV interview to prove he's OK

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Bashar al-Assad gives lengthy TV interview to prove he's OK
• Citibank settles investor lawsuit without admitting guilt
• Germany stages major neo-Nazi crackdown North Rhine-Westphalia

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad gives lengthy TV interview to prove he's OK
****


Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday

Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been rarely seen in public,
since the July 18 Damascus bombing that killed much of his inner
circle. ( "22-Jul-12 World View -- Damascus bombing marks a significant change in Syria"
)
Rumors have been spreading that he was hurt in the bombing, or that he
has to hide out because he can no longer trust anyone not to be
planning to kill him. The interview was conducted on Syria's
privately-owned Addounia television channel, and all the questions
were softball questions. But al-Assad looked relaxed and
presidential, without a care in the world as his army massacred Sunni
women and children in their homes. Al-Jazeera and VOA

****
**** Citibank settles investor lawsuit without admitting guilt
****

Citigroup agreed to pay $590 million in cash to numerous investors who
lost billions of dollars in Citi's "CDO-related quasi-Ponzi scheme."
The investors in the class action suit acquired shares in Citi
between February 2007 and April 2008, and ended up losing almost
all of their investment. Citi lost money because of fraudulent
residential mortgage backed collateralized debt obligations (RMB CDOs),
synthetic securities based on subprime mortgages. Citi
then lied to investors about them, saying that Citi wasn't
responsible for them. Citi denies any wrongdoing, and no one
will go to jail, but will pay the settlement amount anyway, and
executives will presumably continue to draw their multi-million
dollar salaries and bonuses, using the money they get by
charging customers 30% interest.

It would be nice if a couple of Citi's banksters went to jail. I know
that I would feel better about the situation. As I wrote over two
years ago in "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud",
it is provable from circumstantial evidence that
banksters purposely created trillions of dollars in fraudulent
synthetic securities, knowing that they were fraudulent, and then sold
them to investors and lied about it. This is criminal activity, but
the Obama justice department refuses to prosecute any banksters
because of the huge campaign contributions they deliver. It's
absolutely incredible to me that the biggest bankster fraud in history
has impoverished millions of people, and NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON is
going to jail. Incredible!

As far as I know, those RMB CDOs are still on the Citi's books at
nominal values, and when they finally explode, Citi's shareholders
will lose a lot more money. But Citi wouldn't be guilty of anything
after 2008, because they were only doing as they were told. As I've
written many times, New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo
who spent several months in
2008 helping the banks and "monoline" bond insurance companies to
collude to commit fraud, essentially by telling them to continue to
lie to investors.

It would also be nice if Eric Dinallo and other regulators went to
jail. Bloomberg and 2008 court document (PDF)

****
**** Germany stages major neo-Nazi crackdown North Rhine-Westphalia
****

More than 900 police officers raided homes and clubhouses of suspected
neo-Nazis in a crackdown on Thursday, seizing far-right propaganda
material, computer hard drives and a wide variety of weapons. The
crackdown in North Rhine-Westphalia comes amid a greater focus
nationally on the far right in Germany. That was sparked by the
revelation last year that a small group of neo-Nazis apparently
managed to kill nine minorities and a police officer over a seven-year
period while remaining off the radar of the country's intelligence
services. The German public is particularly concerned about neo-Nazi
violence, as last weekend was the 20th anniversary of the violence at
Rostock, when hundreds of right-wing extremists and local thugs spent
four days in late August of 1992 throwing rocks and firebombs at a
building used to house asylum-seekers. Thousands of others stood by
and cheered on the attackers, shouting "foreigners out!" and other
hateful slogans. The orgy of xenophobia ended when rioters set a
neighboring building on fire housing dozens of workers from Vietnam
and their families. AP and Spiegel


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Citigroup,
Eric Dinallo, Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia,
neo-Nazis, Rostock 1992

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*** 31-Aug-12 World View -- Egypt's President Morsi shocks Iran with statement condemning Syria's Assad

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia dealt a 'physical blow' by 'shocking' deaths in Afghanistan
• Egypt's President Morsi shocks Iran with statement condemning Syria's Assad
• Ban Ki-moon denounces Iran over calls to destroy Israel
• Iran's Supreme Leader slams the United Nations Security Council
• China scholars condemn inclusion of 239 English words in official Chinese dictionary

****
**** Australia dealt a 'physical blow' by 'shocking' deaths in Afghanistan
****


Shocked, emotional Julia Gillard reacting to the deaths in Afghanistan. (AFP)

Three Australian soldiers were killed and two injured in Afghanistan
on Wednesday in two separate incidents, one a helicopter crash, and
the other in a firefight. These casualties followed reports of a
"green on blue" attack, where a person wearing an Afghan National Army
uniform fired on three Nato soldiers and killed them. Morale has
taken a hit over this, according to the Chief of Defence Forces,
adding, "This is a terrible day for all of us."

Prime Minister Julia Gillard said:

"I believe this is the most losses in combat since the
days of the Vietnam War and the battle of Long Tan.

This is news so truly shocking that it's going to feel for many
Australians like a physical blow."

She added that this is the worst bloodshed for Australians in combat
in decades. Sydney Morning Herald

****
**** Egypt's President Morsi shocks Iran with statement condemning Syria's Assad
****

Egypt's President Mohamed Morsi created some controversy last week when
he accepted an invitation from Iran to come and speak at the
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit, being held in Tehran. Morsi's
visit to Tehran is being called "historic," since it's the first
such visit by an Egyptian leader since Iran's 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution.

Iran had hoped to gain sympathy from unaligned nations for the Western
sanctions, and had hoped to get endorsement of its policy in Syria.
Outside the meeting hall, they placed three damaged cars -- the cars
that Iranian nuclear scientists were riding in when they were killed
in bombings.

However, Iran received no sympathy from Morsi, who gave a speech
ruthlessly condemning the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad,
and calling for his ouster:

"We express our solidarity with the struggle of the
Syrian people against an oppressive regime that has lost
legitimacy. It is not only an ethical duty but a political and
strategic necessity."

The blood of the Syrian people is on our necks, and it will not
stop unless there is an intervention by all of us."

In a comparison that was sure to infuriate both Iran and Syria, Morsi
compared the plight of Syrians to that of the Palestinians, saying
that both groups are "actively seeking freedom, dignity and human
justice."

The furious Syrian delegation walked out of the conference hall in
protest, calling Morsi's remarks "an interference in Syria's internal
affairs." The Syrians criticized Morsi for not following the unaligned
protocol, and for siding with the West.

According to one analyst that I heard on Al-Jazeera, the translator on
Iran's state television stopped translating Morsi's speech into the
Iranian language (Farsi/Persian) when Morsi started talking about
Syria, but instead inserted something about Bahrain that Morsi never
said.

The Non-Aligned Movement was formed decades ago of nations that were
supposedly not aligned with either the United States or the Soviet
Union. Today, with the Soviet Union gone, the "non-aligned" concept
really doesn't have much meaning, and a number of the "non-aligned"
nations are aligned with the West, at least some of the time.

What we saw in Iran on Thursday is something I've been describing
for years as an absolutely craziness among Iran's hardline leaders.
They actually hope and believe that they're going to become the
leaders of the Islamic world in the same way that the Ottomans
(Turkey) lead the Islamic world prior to World War I. The purpose
of Iran's invitation to Morsi to come to Tehran has been described
as an attempt by Iran to form an "Iran-Egypt axis" that dominates
the Mideast.

The whole concept was and is insane. Iran is a Persian Shia Islam
nation, while most of the Mideast countries are Arab Sunni Muslim.
There is no conceivable way that Saudi Arabia was ever going to take
orders, or even guidance, from Tehran. LA Times and Al Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Ban Ki-moon denounces Iran over calls to destroy Israel
****

Mohamed Morsi wasn't the only person attending the Non-Aligned
Movement summit to embarrass Iran. United Nations Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon had been widely criticized in the West for agreeing
to attend the conference in Iran, but he used the opportunity
to slam the Iranian regime, albeit without mentioning it by name.

"I strongly reject threats by any member state to
destroy another or outrageous attempts to deny historical facts
such as the Holocaust.

Claiming that Israel does not have the right to exist or
describing it in racist terms is not only wrong, but undermines
the very principle we all have pledged to uphold."

According to one expert on Iran, "In the history of the Islamic
Republic, nobody has challenged the supreme leader's (Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei's) position on Israel in front of him, and in such a
manner. This is likely to have long-term reverberations and
consequences inside Iran's halls of power." NBC and Reuters

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader slams the United Nations Security Council
****


Ban Ki-moon and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Wednesday (AP)

Supreme Leader of Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei
harshly criticized the United Nations Security Council at the
Non-Aligned Movement summit on Friday:

"The UN Security Council has a completely unfair
structure, and the US and its allies have been misusing this
unfair structure to materialize their interests.

Their security in the US and Europe is important, while security
of the rest of the world does not matter from their viewpoint.
They impose their own rules and bullying words on the rest of the
world [through the UN].

Everyone is tired of this situation in the world."

Ahlul Bayt News Agency (Qom, Iran)

****
**** China scholars condemn inclusion of 239 English words in official Chinese dictionary
****

A group of 120 scholars have signed a letter of complaint over the
inclusion of English words in a newly revised Chinese dictionary.
The scholars said that the inclusion of English words slyly
opens a door for cultural immersion. According to one of
the scholars:

"The dictionary is not an ordinary Chinese
publication, but a bible for people to learn from and to use
standard Chinese. The dictionary has taken words from English
today. Will it take German and French in the future?"

He raised concerns over the language fading out and called on people
to pay attention to the dignity of the Chinese language.

Most of the offending words in the dictionary are actually acronyms or
abbreviations, including: FBI, GDP, NBA, WTO and CPI.

Some Chinese words that have made their way into the English language
include: Tychonaut (Chinese astronaut), tycoon, tai pan (business
man), kowtow and typhoon. Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Austrialia, Julia Gillard, Afghanistan,
Vietnam, Battle of Long Tan, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Non-Aligned Movement,
Ban Ki-moon, United Nations,
Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, China

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*** 1-Sep-12 World View -- Putin’s spokesman criticizes Romney for toughness on Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• World food prices jump another 10% in July
• Putin’s spokesman criticizes Romney for toughness on Russia
• Money continues to flood out of Spain

****
**** World food prices jump another 10% in July
****


A pair of sheep attempt to graze on a parched pasture as a severe drought takes its toll in Koritna, eastern Croatia, on August 21 (Reuters)

After a big jump in food prices in June, food prices soared by an
additional 10% in July, with maize and soybean reaching all-time peaks
due to an unprecedented summer of droughts and high temperatures in
both the United States and Eastern Europe, From June to July, maize
and wheat rose by 25 percent each, soybeans by 17 percent, and only
rice went down, by 4 percent. Overall, world food prices rose 6%
since July of last year.

Food price increases were not uniform around the world. Black Africa
(Sub-Saharan Africa), in particular, experienced the highest price
increases in maize, including 113 percent in some markets in
Mozambique. Meanwhile, the Sahel and eastern Africa regions
experienced steep price increases of sorghum: 220 percent in South
Sudan, and 180 percent in Sudan, for instance. World Bank

****
**** Putin’s spokesman criticizes Romney for toughness on Russia
****

Last week, China condemned Mitt Romney's 'Cold War mentality.'
Now it's Russia, criticizing this
sentence in Romney's speech: "Under my administration our friends will
see more loyalty and Mr. Putin will see a little less flexibility and
more backbone." Romney's statement reflects the increased nationalism
among the people of the United States, just as nationalism is also
increasing in China, Russia and other countries in a generational
Crisis era. The spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin
responded as follows:

"During official meetings, both Moscow and Washington
have on different levels expressed their understanding that it is
inadmissible for the bilateral ties to fall victim to pre-election
debates.

As the Russian president has said many times, Russia is interested
and will continue to be interested in developing U.S.-Russian
relations."

Russia's response was far less harsh than China's. This reflects the
differences in relationships between the three parties. To state it
as starkly as possible for clarity, the Russians and the Chinese hate
each other, the Americans and the Chinese hate each other, but
Americans and Russians LIKE each other. Please excuse this
exaggeration, but this statement reflects the reason why Russia and
America will be allies in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.
Ria Novosti (Moscow)

****
**** Money continues to flood out of Spain
****


Capital outflows from Spain (WSJ)

Spain's bond yields (interest rates) had fallen from a panic-level
7.5% down close to 6%, as a result of statements by the ECB recently
that gave investors hope that the ECB would flood the markets with
"printed money" liquidity again. Nonetheless, money is pouring out of
Spain as people transfer their money to foreign banks and safer
havens, including U.S. Treasuries, and so bond yields are rising
again, reaching 6.89% on Friday. Anything above 6% is considered
unsustainable, and anything about 7% is considered full scale panic.
And "panic" may be the right word, as net capital outflows reached
56.6 billion euros in June, and 219.8 euros in the first half of the
year.

Of Spain's 17 autonomous regions, three of them -- Catalonia, Valencia
and Murcia -- this week requested bailout money to keep them from
going bankrupt. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had set aside 18 billion
euros as bailout funds for all 17 regions, but these three need more
than half of the fund, indicating that the fund is too small.

If you listen to CNBC these days, you'll notice that all they talk
about quantitative easing or other forms of injecting "printed money"
liquidity into the banking system. It used to be that they would
talk about this money going to stimulate economic growth, but there's
been a change in tone, and they don't talk about economic growth any
more, except to say that it's a few years off. There's no longer any
pretense. They want move liquidity injection because that money will
flow into the stock market, and their bankster friends will continue
to justify their 7-digit salaries and bonuses. I don't even hear much
about hyperinflation any more, as more analysts are resigned to the
deflationary spiral that Generational Dynamics predicted almost ten
years ago. Bloomberg and WSJ

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, food prices, drought, Russia,
Vladimir Putin, Mitt Romney, Spain, Catalonia, Valencia,
Mariano Rajoy

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*** 2-Sep-12 World View -- U.S. decision on Haqqani Network will affect Pakistan relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Obama administration decision on Haqqani network will affect Pakistan relations
• Debate of effectiveness of terror designation of Haqqani network
• The Haqqani Network and the Pashtuns

****
**** Obama administration decision on Haqqani network will affect Pakistan relations
****


Haqqani network leader Jalaluddin Haqqani in 1998 (AP)

The Obama administration is deeply divided over whether to designate
the Pakistan-based Haqqani network as a terrorist group. A report on
the administration's decision is due to Congress by September 9, and
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated that the deadline will
be met, one way or the other. The Haqqani Network is a Taliban
offshoot that is leading the fight against the government of
Afghanistan and the Nato forces in Afghanistan. A number of US
military commanders have indicated that the Haqqani Network is the
most dangerous and most organized terrorist organization in the
Taliban.

The designation of the Haqqani Network as a terrorist organization
should be an easy call, but there are broader issues. American
officials in the past have accused Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) agency of having ties to the Haqqani Network, and
even of supply arms and money to it. The Pakistanis deny this, saying
that ISI links were cut long ago. And so a designation of the Haqqani
Network as a terrorist organization might once again cause a major
rift in relations with Pakistan, at a time just after last year's rift
was healed and the supply route through Pakistan was reopened, as we
reported
in July. Pakistan Observer

****
**** Debate of effectiveness of terror designation of Haqqani network
****

Part of the debate is over whether the terror designation will
actually accomplish anything. A recent report calls the Haqqani
network “an efficient, trans*national jihadi industry” that has
“penetrated key business sectors, including import-export, transport,
real estate and construction in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Arab Gulf
and beyond." Proponents of the designation claim that these business
interests will be undermined, but others in the White House point out
that several Haqqani leaders have already been designated individually
as terrorists, and that hasn't affected their business interests.
Washington Post

****
**** The Haqqani Network and the Pashtuns
****

The Haqqani Network is the culmination of how I've been describing for
years the Afghanistan war in terms of Generational Dynamics theory.

President Obama initiated the "surge" into Afghanistan in
2009 with the intent of duplicating the success of President
Bush's "surge" strategy into Iraq in 2007. However, as I've
written several times in the past, the generational situation
in Afghanistan is very different than in Iraq, and there are
significant differences that will prevent the surge strategy from
working there.


Afghan-Pak-India ethnic map

Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s, meaning that Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, not very
interested in war. This was an external war, fought with Iran, that
brought the Iraqi people together against a common foe. When al-Qaeda
in Iraq started operating, they were thrown out by people on both
sides of the Sunni/Shia sectarian divide, since the two sides were
still united. Thus, America's 2007 "surge" was very effective in
helping them eject al-Qaeda in Iraq. From 2007: "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq"

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the bloody civil war of
the 1990s, climaxing in 1996. So Afghanistan is at the end of a
generational Recovery era, and is just entering a generational
Awakening era, and from that point of view, the country is similar to
Iraq. But the huge difference is that Afghanistan's crisis war was a
civil war.

During the extremely bloody ethnic civil war that the Afghans fought
in the 1990s, the Shia Muslim Hazaris and the Sunni Muslim Pashtuns
were on opposite sides, and the ethnic groups were torturing and
killing each other within Afghanistan. The Hazari and the Pashtuns
are going to continue to see each other as the enemy, and they will
can never come together and see the Haqqani network as a common
enemy, in the way that the Iraqi's saw al-Qaeda in Iraq as a common
enemy.

Even despite all that, things might settle down in Afghanistan, if it
weren't for one more major problem. The Taliban are Pashtuns. The
Haqqani Network are Pashtuns. The Pashtuns live in a broad area that
spans Afghanistan, Pakistan's tribal area, and Pakistan's northwest,
as you can see from the map above, where the Pashtuns are shown in
green.

The additional major problem is that the Pashtuns in Pakistan are
on a different generational timeline than the Pashtuns in Afghanistan.
Pakistan's last crisis war was Partition, the 1947 partitioning of
the Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India. So the Pakistani
Pashtuns are deep into a generational crisis era, and the Haqqani
Network are Pakistani Pashtuns, able to move freely across
the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

So we have a situation where Afghanistan is entering a generational
Awakening era, and has little desire for a bloody war. Indeed,
Afghan president Hamid Karzai is a Pashtun who has close relations
with the Hazaris. But the Pakistani-based Haqqani Network wants
a war, and believe that a Pashtun victory will give them
control of the entire region.

I keep reading nonsense that various American officials are hoping
that the Taliban will agree to a negotiated truce with Nato. This
is so absurd that it's laughable. Yes, the Afghan Taliban might
agree to that, but there is no way in hell that the Haqqani
Network or the Pakistani Taliban in general are going to have
anything to do with a peace agreement with the infidels.

Finally, it's worth pointing out again, as I have in the past, that
historically, Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims in wars
against Sunni Muslims, and this is the current trend in the region.
In the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, it's expected that
Pakistan will be allied with the Taliban (Pashtuns) in southern
Afghanistan, and India will be allied with Iran and with the Hazaris
and other Shia Muslims in northern Afghanistan.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Haqqani Network, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI,
Pashtuns, Iraq, al-Qaeda in Iraq, India, Hindus, Iran

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*** 3-Sep-12 World View -- Pakistan girl to be freed after bizarre twist in blasphemy case

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bizarre blasphemy charge against Pakistan girl takes new bizarre twist
• The Gen-X connection with Pakistan's blasphemy laws
• Mali Islamist terrorists claim to have killed an Algerian diplomat
• Two bombs explode in Damascus, Syria, in secure area
• Syria's neighbors overwhelmed by 1.2 million Syrian refugees

****
**** Bizarre blasphemy charge against Pakistan girl takes new bizarre twist
****


Rimsha Masih

On August 16, Rimsha Masih, a mentally retarded 14 year old Christian
girl in a suburb of Islamabad, Pakistan, was arrested for blasphemy,
accused of burning papers containing verses from the Quran. The case
drew worldwide outrage, as governments and human rights groups
demanded that she be released. Even Muslim groups demanded leniency.
Suddenly the case has taken a new bizarre twist, as Imam Khalid
Jadoon, the Muslim cleric who had originally accused Rimsha of
blasphemy, has himself been accused of manufacturing evidence. Jadoon
was arrested on Saturday, after his deputy and two of his assistants
in his mosque came forward and said that Jadoon had added the burned
Quran pages to the garbage that the girl had been carrying. The three
said they had tried to talk Jadoon out of doing this, but he said,
"You know this is the only way to expel the Christians from this
area." It's hoped that Rimsha will be freed from prison on Monday.
Dawn (Karachi)

****
**** The Gen-X connection with Pakistan's blasphemy laws
****

The application of blasphemy laws in Pakistan is extremely irrational, as I
described in "26-Apr-12 World View -- New report examines terrorism and religious extremism in Pakistan"
,
based on a detailed report by Pakistan's Jinnah Institute. While the blasphemy
laws sometimes target Christians, as in the case of Rimsha, they're used by
Muslims to target other Muslims in well over 90% of the cases, usually by
Sunni Muslims targeting Shia Muslims or Sufis or Ahmadis. Thousands of
Pakistanis have been jailed, tortured or killed by means of the blasphemy
laws. But what's really remarkable is ordinary Pakistanis accept this,
and they refuse to speak out against it.

This is exactly the kind of behavior that I've been describing in
Generation-Xers in America, where thousands of Gen-X financial
engineers created the financial crisis with the purpose of defrauding
hated Boomers, without being investigated or sent to jail, because
Gen-Xers refuse to blame other Gen-Xers for anything, even serious
crimes. It's this refusal to blame other Gen-Xers for crimes that
characterizes this generation today versus the Boomers, and it's
exactly the same kind of behavior we're seeing in the Pakistani
population today.

As I explained in "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust"
, this is also the same
behavior that led to the 1930s Holocaust. Germany's Lost Generation
(the generational predecessor of today's Generation-X) hated the
previous Missionary Generation just as much as today's Gen-Xers
hate the previous Boomer Generation.

These situations occur in all times and places throughout history, and
result in history's greatest catastrophes. In each case, the
generational conflict morphs into a political conflict, as people in
every generation are forced to choose sides in the generational
debate. In 1930s Germany, it was the Christians blaming the Jews for
German humiliation in World War I. In America today, it's the
Democrats blaming the Republicans for the Nasdaq crash in 2000. In
Pakistan, it's the Sunnis blaming the Shias. The result is always the
same: catastrophe.

****
**** Mali Islamist terrorists claim to have killed an Algerian diplomat
****

The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa [MUJAO], a terrorist
group associated with Ansar Dine, the al-Qaeda linked jihadist group
that's taken control of much of Mali, claims to have executed a
kidnapped Algerian diplomat. Seven Algerian diplomats were kidnapped
from a consulate in Gao on April 5 during the takeover of northern
Mali. Three of the hostages were freed in July, and MUJAO has threatened
to kill the others unless jihadist prisoners are released. Algeria
said that the death hasn't been confirmed.

Ansar Dine, and now MUJAO, have been taking control of increasingly
large regions of Mali, and it's feared that the capital Bamako will
eventually be threatened. France and Algeria would both like a
military force to intervene, since both are vulnerable to terrorist
attacks from Ansar Dine, but the United Nations has refused to go
farther than issuing the usual condemnation of violence. The death of
an Algerian diplomat, if confirmed, would raise the pressure for
military intervention. Al-Jazeera

****
**** Two bombs explode in Damascus, Syria, in secure area
****


Bomb wreckage in Damascus on Sunday

In a new sign that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has reduced
security in Damascus, two terrorist bombs exploded on Sunday in a
supposedly secure area near the compound housing the army and air
force headquarters in central Damascus. The Ahfad al-Rasul
(Grandchildren of the Prophet) battalion of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)
claimed responsibility for the attack, saying that they had help from
elements of the Syrian Army guarding the compound. The FSA are the
Sunni rebels who are fighting the Syrian army and demanding al-Assad's
ouster. This is another significant humiliation to al-Assad, though
not as bad as the July 18 bombing that killed much of his inner
circle. ( "22-Jul-12 World View -- Damascus bombing marks a significant change in Syria"
)
Al-Assad has been rarely seen inpublic since July 18, presumably
because he know longer knows whom he can trust. Daily Star (Beirut) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Syria's neighbors overwhelmed by 1.2 million Syrian refugees
****

Over 1.2 million refugees from Syria have been flooding into Turkey,
Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq, and the flood is only increasing, straining
the resources of these neighboring countries. Jordan said it does not
have the means to handle the 70,000-160,000 refugees that it has so
far, and it's requesting international aid of $700 million from the
United Nations refugees' agency. Khaleej Times (Dubai)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Rimsha Masih, blasphemy,
Imam Khalid Jadoon, Generation-X, financial crisis, Holocaust,
Mali, Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, MUJAO,
Algeria, France, Syria, Damascus, Bashar al-Assad,
Ahfad al-Rasul (Grandchildren of the Prophet) battalion,
Free Syrian Army, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq

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Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

I find this strange, but not implausible. It's strange because to the best of my knowledge, Sweden does not derive any benefits from the US relations.

Like any banana republic, today's Sweden stands and falls by its exports and The United States is an important export country of Swedish goods, not least trucks. I can imagine that on the political level, Sweden does not want to rock the boat, especially not on an internationally hard pressed automobile market.

As you mention, if the US is using strong armed tactics, then would that not be similar to what the US blamed Saddam doing exact same thing to Kuwait? Then of course this whole thing gets even weirder when over the top PC politics/laws are intertwined with the Swedish side and crass hypocrisy is involved on the US side.

Yes, it's farcical and absurd. But actually, this might be happening more often than we think, like when the US power apparatus and European PC-ism end up on the same side in support of the Islamistic takeover in the Maghreb and Levant from relatively secular dictatorships for example, also known as the "Arab Spring". Another example is a tendency to interpret ethno-cultural rioting in Europe as a matter of social protest, a tendency that Xenakis is also falling for on his blog, but while in his case it's evidently due to a failure of reading between the lines of European media reporting, Euro-PC and even hard line US Neoconism deep down apparently share a lot of the same universalist, multicultural and progressivist values. Yes, such a coincidental cooperaton between "left" and "right" may look crazy before you get used to it. It almost looks like that essentially, from their point of view, everything that hurts national statehood is considered a boon.

From the Wikileaks philes, we do know the US is doing things it shouldn't be doing and any sane country would just either by choice or accident just let Assange escape into exile in S. America.

Well, I wouldn't place Sweden in the sane country category. We'll see how it ends up.

*** 4-Sep-12 World View -- Armenia says it's 'ready for war' with Azerbaijan 'bastards'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hillary Clinton criticizes China's South China Sea military coercion and intimidation
• Armenia says it's 'ready for war' with Azerbaijan 'bastards'

****
**** Hillary Clinton criticizes China's South China Sea military coercion and intimidation
****


Hillary Clinton and Indonesia's Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa on Monday (Reuters)

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned against "coercive or intimidating"
behavior in the South China Sea, evidently referring to China's military buildup
and it's creation of "Sansha City" in the Paracel Islands. Speaking in
Jakarta, Indonesia, she said:

"The United States believes very strongly that no
party should take any steps that would increase tensions or do
anything that would be viewed as coercive or intimidating to
advance their territorial claims. ...

The United States does not take a position on competing
territorial claims over land features, but we believe the nations
of the region should work collaboratively together to resolve
disputes without coercion, without intimidation, without threats
and certainly without the use of force."

One big difference between China and the U.S. is the reaction to criticism.
The U.S. gets criticized constantly, so we're used to it. But China
really freaks out when it's criticized.

China's position is that the U.S. should butt out of the South China Sea disputes,
and allow them to bilaterally threaten each of the countries challenging their
claim to the entire South China Sea, including regions that have historically
belonged to other countries. China calls the U.S. "troublemakers," because
we've been urging the nations around the South China Sea to stand up to China
as a group, through the ASEAN organization.

China's response is to criticize America's military "pivot" to Asia, and to
demand an explanation:

"The world's attention will focus on how the two
U.S. officials will explain to the Chinese side the true
intentions of the Obama administration's Pivot to Asia policy,
especially its new defense strategy.

Since last fall, the Obama administration has been implementing
the Pivot policy by expanding and intensifying its political,
diplomatic and military involvement in the Asia-Pacific
region. The fundamental goal underpinning this shift is to
maintain the U.S. dominance in the resources-rich and
fastest-growing region, amid heightened concerns about China's
rise.

As major part of its Pivot policy, Washington has quickened the
pace of increasing its military presence and engagement in the
Asia Pacific, including deploying troops in Australia, boosting
military cooperation with Japan, and purposely strengthening
military ties with some Asian countries, particularly the
Philippines and Vietnam, both involved in territorial disputes
with China.

The U.S. strategic shift has raised more questions than answers:
Is the U.S. Pivot policy really intended to bolster peace and
stability in the Asia-Pacific region? Can the U.S. really play a
fair role over the territorial disputes in the region? Does the
U.S. mean it when it pledges not to seek to contain China?

Many of the U.S. actions so far have been counterproductive to
promoting peace and stability in the Asia Pacific, as indicated by
the fact that the security situation in the region has been
worsening, rather than improving, mainly due to the recent
escalation of the territorial disputes in the East China Sea and
the South China Sea.

Washington, which claims not to take sides in the disputes, is
partly blamed for fueling the tensions because it has apparently
emboldened certain relevant parties to make provocations against
China in order to achieve undeserved territorial gains. ,,,

However, Washington owes Beijing a thorough, convincing
explanation of the true intentions of its Pivot policy, especially
on issues related to China's vital or core interests. And the
United States also needs to take concrete steps to prove that it
is returning to Asia as a peacemaker, instead of a
troublemaker."

The words "core interest" are a code phrase from the Chinese, meaning
something for which there is no compromise, under any circumstances.
China is using coercion and intimidation to gain control of regions in
the South and East China Seas, as well as in central Asia, and all of
these are "core interests."

This is the typical kind of ping-ponging that goes on prior to a war,
as each belligerent statement or action from one side brings a more
belligerent statement or action from the other side. Clinton will be
visiting Beijing on Tuesday, so there may be more to come. AFP and Xinhua

****
**** Armenia says it's 'ready for war' with Azerbaijan 'bastards'
****


Nagorno-Karabakh (BBC)

Azerbaijan's Lieutenant Ramil Safarov used an axe to hack to death
Armenian officer Gurgen Margarian, when the two of them were attending
a Nato conference in 2004 in Budapest. Safarov was convicted of
murder and given a life sentence in a Hungarian court. Azerbaijan
obtained the extradition of Safarov back to his home country, based on
the promise that he would serve out his life sentence there. As soon
as he came back, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev immediately
double-crossed Hungary and not only pardoned Safarove, but promoted
him to major, and gave him a house and eight years of back pay.
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian issued a statement on Sunday:

"We don't want a war, but if we have to, we will fight
and win. We are not afraid of killers, even if they enjoy the
protection of the head of state. ...

They have been warned. [Azerbaijan is a country where] illicit
orders set free and publicly glorify every bastard who kills
people only because they are Armenians."

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a very bloody war that ended in 1994
with Armenia gaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a recion in the
middle of Azerbaijan. Since then, hostilities have been simmering
between the two countries. AFP

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hillary Clinton, China, South China Sea,
Indonesia, Marty Natalegawa, Sansha City, Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Hungary, Ramil Safarov, Nagorno-Karabakh

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Originally Posted by Tussilago

Like any banana republic, today's Sweden stands and falls by its exports and The United States is an important export country of Swedish goods, not least trucks. I can imagine that on the political level, Sweden does not want to rock the boat, especially not on an internationally hard pressed automobile market.

1. Exporting real stuff like autos in exchange for pieces of green paper or their electronic equivalents? Yes, that's what China does and it doesn't make sense.
2. I think autos may be a dead end anyhow. When the process of bananaization is complete here, nobody will be able to afford autos or the gasoline that powers them.

Yes, it's farcical and absurd. But actually, this might be happening more often than we think, like when the US power apparatus and European PC-ism end up on the same side in support of the Islamistic takeover in the and Levant from relatively secular dictatorships for example, also known as the "Arab Spring". Another example is a tendency to interpret ethno-cultural rioting in Europe as a matter of social protest, a tendency that Xenakis is also falling for on his blog, but while in his case it's evidently due to a failure of reading between the lines of European media reporting, Euro-PC and even hard line US Neoconism deep down apparently share a lot of the same universalist, multicultural and progressivist values. Yes, such a coincidental cooperaton between "left" and "right" may look crazy before you get used to it. It almost looks like that essentially, from their point of view, everything that hurts national statehood is considered a boon.

1.

Originally Posted by teh Wiki

Among the most visible caucuses are those composed of members sharing the same race or ethnic group.
The Congressional Black Caucus for African-Americans has included members of both chambers, but the election of Barack Obama as President had left no black Senators, making the CBC exclusively Representatives. Senator Roland Burris, who succeeded Barack Obama in the Senate, was a member of the CBC, but Burris left office on November 29, 2010, succeeded by Mark Kirk, so there are again no black Senators. There are two Hispanics caucuses: The Congressional Hispanic Caucus, for Hispanic Democrats, and the Congressional Hispanic Conference, for Hispanic Republicans. Congressional Republicans formerly belonged to the Hispanic Caucus but later split off to form the Hispanic Conference. The Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus is for Asian American and Pacific Islander American members, but is not exclusive to such members.

1. Yes, I despise identity politics. If we have the above, I propose a Scandinavian caucus since Scandinavians are a minority here and a Native American caucus. That way, I'm represented properly. I'm jealous.

2. I do believe the Arab Spring is not some "purple finger" nonsense. Rather, food prices got out of hand and that is the proximate cause of instability. The Mideast has always been a mess and given this year's droughts all over the place, it will continue to be a mess. So. I think it will be something similar to "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" wrt what transpires. Same authoritarianism, different ideology.
3. Mideast messes seem to cause headaches for Europe as well. I hope Europe is ready for a new batch of Syrians. And, since Europe already has a mess wrt Euro-screwjob , those Syrians aint's gonna find jobs there. I'm not sure what happens then. Do they get packed in to the Welfare state or something?
4. National statehood: I have a theory here as well. The left is for this "We're one world afterall" nonsense I remember growing up. The right's agenda is globalization so it gets its goodies like wage arbritrage and in the case of the Mideast, oil.

Well, I wouldn't place Sweden in the sane country category. We'll see how it ends up.

I think we may get some sort of answer soon. If Sweden is one of the locales that has some Syrian packing, we'll have an answer.

*** 5-Sep-12 World View -- Economic deterioration continues in America, Europe and China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's government flails over issues of Syrian refugees and PKK attacks
• U.S. manufacturing contracts at sharpest rate in over three years
• New study explains why this financial crisis is worse than previous recessions
• China's economy continues to deteriorate, threatening social unrest
• German export orders fall sharply in August

****
**** Turkey's government flails over issues of Syrian refugees and PKK attacks
****


Recep Tayyip Erdogan in June (AFP)

After almost 18 months of Syrian conflict, Turkey's government appears
to be increasingly split over its policy towards the conflict. For
many months, the policy of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
appeared to be widely accepted: He sounded increasingly hawkish in
threatening potential military action within Syria, with the
possibility of establishing protected "buffer zones" on Syrian soil,
but without ever translating his hawkish words into any action. But
over the summer, many people have turned against him, because of two
major problems:

• The Kurds in eastern Syria have become free of Damascus and
  are able to govern themselves, and talking about joining up with Kurds
  in Turkey, Iraq and Iran to form an independent Kurdistan, something
  that's been a dream at least since World War I. The result has been
  an extremely bloody summer in Turkey, with numerous terrorist attacks,
  kidnappings of Turkish officials, and bombings of public buildings by
  the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Many people are blaming Erdogan's
  policy for allowing this to happen.
  
• The number of refugees fleeing Syria for neighboring countries
  dramatically increased in August to over 100,000, many going into Turkey.
  Turkey how has more than 80,000 refugees, and is making plans to handle
  at least 150,000 refugees.

Leaders of Erdogan's main opposition party have announced that they're
going to submit a censure motion against Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu for putting the nation's security at risk for allegedly supplying
weapons to the rebel Free Syrian Army:

"This is the first time that Turkey has ever been
accused of supplying arms [to the opposition] of a neighboring
country, and of training them in its territory. Turkey’s foreign
policy is turning into a disgrace."

Turkish Weekly and Guardian and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** U.S. manufacturing contracts at sharpest rate in over three years
****

The global economic slowdown that began late last year continues to
accelerate. In very bad economic news, manufacturing in the
U.S. shrank for the third month in a row. According to one analyst,
"Manufacturing has been one of the stalwarts of an otherwise
lackluster recovery but it’s starting to show some cracks. Until we
get more clarity on the fiscal policy outlook here, more clarity on
Europe and some signs on the course of China’s economy, manufacturing
is just going to languish." Bloomberg

****
**** New study explains why this financial crisis is worse than previous recessions
****

I've been pointing out endlessly for years that mainstream economists
have been wrong about everything for almost 20 years. To this day,
mainstream economists have never explained the tech bubble of the late
1990s, why it occurred at all, and why it occurred at that time,
instead of ten years earlier or later. They have absolutely no clue,
when the obvious explanation is generational -- the 1990s was exactly
the time when the risk-averse survivors of the 1930s Great Depression
all disappear (retired or died) all at once, leaving behind
risk-ignorant Boomers to run things.

Now mainstream economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) are trying to find an explanation why this "recession" is so
much worse than any of the preceding postwar recessions. A historical
study shows a correlation between financial crises and private sector
credit, much stronger than the correlations with money supply growth,
current account deficit, or increase in public debt.

This is one of these "Duhhhh" moments. As I've been saying for years,
the survivors of a major financial crisis like the Great Depression
spend their lives being extremely risk averse, avoiding debt as much
as possible. When these survivors disappear, they're replaced by
younger generations with no personal memory of the last financial
crisis, so they go into debt again, creating a new financial bubble,
and when the bubble bursts there's a financial crisis, so the cycle
starts all over again.

This is obvious, elementary stuff, but mainstream economists seem to
have some switch turned off in their brains that make it impossible
for them to see even the most obvious generational explanations.

At any rate, the conclusion of this research is that the current
"recession" will go on for many years. The Generational Dynamics
predictions is much gloomier: At some there will be a major worldwide
panic, comparable to but worse than the panic that occurred in October
1929, leading to the worst financial crisis in history. The Economist and National Bureau of Economic Research

****
**** China's economy continues to deteriorate, threatening social unrest
****

Manufacturing is also contracting in China, in some sectors to the
lowest levels since March, 2009. Before this year, China "printed"
huge amounts of money and poured it into the banking system, in order
to stimulate the economy. However, the money was used by banks to
fund empty ghost towns and apartment buildings, creating a huge real
estate bubble that is now bursting. This year, China cut back on the
fiscal stimulus, in an attempt to prevent the real estate bubble from
worsening, but with the economy deteriorating, that government policy
may have to be reversed again. China's economy is very unstable, more
so than America's. There are tens or hundreds of thousands of "mass
incidents" every year of large public protests against the government
and Chinese Communist Party officials, and China has a long history of
huge, bloody, genocidal civil wars. The most recent one was Mao
Zedong's Communist Revolution, and China is now due for its next
massive civil war. Bloomberg

****
**** German export orders fall sharply in August
****

Completing the picture of the economy slowing down all around the
world, new figures show that German exporters had their biggest drop
in international orders in over three years in August. "Survey
respondents commented on a general slowdown in global demand and
particular weakness in new business inflows from Southern Europe,"
according to an analyst. At the same time, figures from the U.K. and
Italy also show economic slowdowns. Spiegel


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria,
Ahmet Davutoglu, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Iraq, Iran,
manufacturing, China, Germany

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*** 6-Sep-12 World View -- Eurozone demands that Greeks should work six days a week

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bullfights to the death being televised in Spain and Portugal
• Eurozone demands that Greeks should work six days a week
• Six thousand would-be immigrants wait in Turkey to be smuggled into Greece
• Televised speeches
• Israel's government flailing over whether to attack Iran

****
**** Bullfights to the death being televised in Spain and Portugal
****


Bullfight to the death televised in Portugal

Televised bullfights were banned by Spain's Socialist government in
2005, but that government was ousted last November, and the prime
minister Mariano Rajoy is a staunch defender of bullfights. So
bullfights returned to Spain's state TV in a glittering display on
Wednesday evening. Bullfighting is a major part of Spain's psyche and
history, and the centuries-old events inspired the likes of Goya,
Picasso and Hemingway. Televising bullfights is illegal in most of
Portugal, the exception being Barrancos, near the Spanish border. The
issue there has been the televising of bullfights where the bull is
killed, but a special law authorizing airing bullfights to the death
was passed in 2002. Animal rights activists say that bullfighting is
cruel and vulgar, while bullfighting proponents point out that it's a
popular tourist attraction. Newser and The Portugal News

****
**** Eurozone demands that Greeks should work six days a week
****

A leaked letter from the "troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the
European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) -- contains a list of demands that Greece must implement
in return for further bailouts. The demands include the following:

• Increase the number of maximum workdays to six days per week
  for all sectors.
  
• Increase flexibility of work schedules; set the minimum daily rest to
  11 hours; delink the working hours of employees from the opening hours
  of the establishment; eliminate restrictions on minimum/maximum time
  between morning and afternoon shifts; allow the consecutive two-week
  leave to be taken anytime during the year in seasonal sectors.
  
• Have a permanent single-rate statutory minimum wage.
  
• Reduce employers' welfare contributions.

Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras is pleading with the Troika to
give him two more years to implement austerity reforms, and the leaked
letter reveals the detail of eurozone intrusion into Greece's economy
and social culture that will be demanded in return for the delay,
which would require a third bailout. However, many Greeks say that
they will refuse to work six days per week. One policeman is quoted
as saying:

"They have slashed our salary by 50 per cent and are
threatening even more cuts - now they are demanding that we work
even more days for less money? No one in their right mind will
stand for it!"

Troika officials will be arriving in Athens on Friday to discuss the
plan. Guardian (London) and Deutsche-Presse Agentur

****
**** Six thousand would-be immigrants wait in Turkey to be smuggled into Greece
****

The land border between Turkey and Greece has been effectively closed
to illegal immigration, because of a massive crackdown by Greek border
guards. Migrants try to get into Greece as a pathway to the rest of
Europe, where they hope to find jobs. But with the land border
closed, the last two weeks have seen a surge of migrants from the
Turkish coast entering Greece via the islands of the Aegean Sea. As
many as 6,000 would-be immigrants are currently gathered in
neighboring Turkey, waiting their turn to board smuggling ships to
bring them to Greece. Kathimerini

****
**** Televised speeches
****

With all the economic and geopolitical problems in the world, I can't
believe that as I'm writing this I'm listening to a speech televised
on all networks by a young female whining that some women have to pay
for their own contraceptives. To paraphrase Clarence Thomas in 1991,
this is a national disgrace.

****
**** Israel's government flailing over whether to attack Iran
****

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately adjourned a
cabinet meeting on Wednesday, because there had been leaks from the
previous day's meeting. According to the leaked story, the members of
the security cabinet were shocked to hear that the country's different
intelligence agencies – the Mossad, Shin Bet, and Army Intelligence –
do not agree about the time frame for a potential Iranian attack.
I've been reading for almost ten years that an attack on Iran's
nuclear facilities was imminent, but it's never happened. I continue
to expect that it won't happen at all, and the confusion within Israel
is an example of why I don't expect it to happen. We'll see.
Jerusalem Post

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Portugal, bullfights, Barrancos,
Mariano Rajoy, Greece, Troika, IMF, EC, ECB,
Antonis Samaras, Turkey, Aegean Sea, Israel, Iran,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Mossad, Shin Bet

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 5-Sep-12 World View -- Economic deterioration continues in America, Europe and China

• Turkey's government flails over issues of Syrian refugees and PKK attacks
• German export orders fall sharply in August

****
**** Turkey's government flails over issues of Syrian refugees and PKK attacks
****


Recep Tayyip Erdogan in June (AFP)

After almost 18 months of Syrian conflict, Turkey's government appears
to be increasingly split over its policy towards the conflict. For
many months, the policy of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
appeared to be widely accepted: He sounded increasingly hawkish in
threatening potential military action within Syria, with the
possibility of establishing protected "buffer zones" on Syrian soil,
but without ever translating his hawkish words into any action. But
over the summer, many people have turned against him, because of two
major problems:

• The Kurds in eastern Syria have become free of Damascus and
  are able to govern themselves, and talking about joining up with Kurds
  in Turkey, Iraq and Iran to form an independent Kurdistan, something
  that's been a dream at least since World War I. The result has been
  an extremely bloody summer in Turkey, with numerous terrorist attacks,
  kidnappings of Turkish officials, and bombings of public buildings by
  the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Many people are blaming Erdogan's
  policy for allowing this to happen.
• The number of refugees fleeing Syria for neighboring countries
  dramatically increased in August to over 100,000, many going into Turkey.
  Turkey how has more than 80,000 refugees, and is making plans to handle
  at least 150,000 refugees.

Leaders of Erdogan's main opposition party have announced that they're
going to submit a censure motion against Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu for putting the nation's security at risk for allegedly supplying
weapons to the rebel Free Syrian Army:

Hey, Eric. It happened. I told you that Syria would suck in Turkey via the PKK. "Arab Spring" = great big clusterfuck. Yummy.

*** 7-Sep-12 World View -- Stocks go crazy as European Central Bank opens the money floodgates

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ECB announces huge new unlimited bailout program
• Stocks returning to height of 2007 bubble levels
• Hungary rejects IMF/EU's austerity demands for a bailout
• 60 migrants drown in smuggling attempt from Turkey to Greece

****
**** ECB announces huge new unlimited bailout program
****


Mario Draghi

Last December, shortly after he became the new chief of the European
Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi opened the floodgates and offered
unlimited amounts of euros to banks in 3-year loans at 1% interest,
with the intention that they would lend that money to businesses and
spur growth. Hundreds of European banks took advantage of the money,
borrowing something like 1 trillion euros in the program, known as the
Long-Term Financing Operation or LTRO. But the program was a failure,
in that the banks hardly lent any money to businesses, using the money
instead to pay off some of their own higher interest loans. They did
use the money to purchase Spanish and Italian government bonds,
pushing down yields (interest rates) on those bonds, and allowing
those countries to continue spending as before and go ever deeper into
unsustainable debt. However, even that effect ended when the LTRO
program ended at the end of March, and the eurozone has been
deteriorating steadily since then, with lots of talk of "Grexit", and
exit by Greece.

Since then, Draghi has promised "to do anything" to save the euro, and
on Thursday he opened the floodgates again. Instead of pouring money
into the banks, he proposed to pour it directly into the coffers of
governments in trouble, by purchasing the bonds of any country in
trouble on the open market, without any built-in limitations. There
are two requirements:

• The country must first ask/beg for a bailout. It's thought
  that this will discourage some countries from getting bailouts, since
  it will be too humiliating to beg.
  
• The country must agree to implement the usual list of austerity
  measures.

There's nothing new about this. In the case of several previous
bailouts, the country said for months, up till the last nanosecond,
that no bailout was necessary, and only said they needed a bailout
when the bailout was announced. And we know what's happened with the
austerity measures demanded of Greece, Spain and Italy.

There's something else that we've heard before: Draghi claims that it
won't even be necessary to bail anyone out, because investors will
know that it's safe to buy bonds from the troubled country with the
ECB backstop. Thus the scenario that Draghi imagines is as follows:
When investors start demanding high bond yields (interest rates) from
a troubled country, the ECB will start buying that country's bonds
until the yields fall to sustainable levels again. But since
investors know that's going to happen, they won't demand high yields
in the first place.

But investors also know that if the ECB is going to buy a country's
bonds on the open market as long as necessary to push yields down,
then the country's politicians and labor unions will also know that
they can sell as many bonds as they want, and go on spending as usual,
and go infinitely deep into debt.

And so, we have a new fantasy "Big Bazooka" plan from the ECB.
Meanwhile, as we've been reporting, the world economy has been
slowing. Irish Times and Washington Post and Bloomberg

****
**** Stocks returning to height of 2007 bubble levels
****

Throughout 2006 and 2007, I frequently wrote commentaries mocking the
investors who seemed to pop champagne corks every day and push the
stock market to new bubble highs. Well, if you listened carefully on
Thursday, you could hear lots of champagne corks popping again, as
Wall Street Stocks seemed to be approaching the 2007 bubble levels
again. According to my Dow Jones historical page, stock prices have remained at almost exactly 200% of their
long-term trend value for almost two years now. Stocks have been way
overpriced continuously since 1995, and by the Law of Mean Reversion,
this bubble will burst, and a major panic will push stock prices below
the Dow 3000 level. AP

****
**** Hungary rejects IMF/EU's austerity demands for a bailout
****

Against the backdrop of the Mario Draghi's Big Bazooka unlimited
bailout program announcement, a drama was occurring in Budapest, when
Hungary's premier Viktor Orbán used his Facebook page to tell the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) to buzz off. He said that he would
seek an unspecified "alternative negotiating proposal," and reject the
austerity measures that the IMF was demanding in return for a 15
billion euro bailout loan. The bailout loan has been repeatedly
delayed, because Orbán has repeatedly refused to do as the IMF
demanded. The value of Hungary's currency collapsed during the day,
as news of the Facebook announcement spread, so this drama will go on
for a while. For now, at a time when Greece is begging for a two-year
postponement of its own austerity requirements, what it does show is
how unrealistic Draghi's announcement was, even though he had no
choice but to make it. Bloomberg and Politics Hungary

****
**** 60 migrants drown in smuggling attempt from Turkey to Greece
****


Turkish rescue boat finds water littered with bodies. 40 were pulled out of the water while still alive.

At least 61 migrants trying to reach Greece and then Europe by being
smuggled across the Aegean Sea from Turkey drowned on Thursday
morning, when their boat struck rocks and capsized just 50 meters from
the shore of Turkey. Many on the boat were able to swim to shore, but
18 women, 29 children and 2 babies drowned because they were locked
below decks and could not escape. The survivors were interrogated
with the help of Kurdish-speaking security personnel, and they were
Iraqi, Palestinian and Syrian citizens, who had intended to enter
Greece and then travel through Europe to the United Kingdom. As we
reported
yesterday, Greece has
closed the land border between Turkey and Greece, with the result that
there's been a huge surge of migrants attempting to reach Greece
through the Aegean Sea. As many as 6,000 would-be immigrants are
waiting their turn in Turkey to be smuggled into Greece. Hurriyet (Ankara) and National Turk


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mario Draghi, European Central Bank, ECB,
Long-Term Financial Operation, LTRO, Greece, Spain, Italy,
Dow Jones Industrial Average, Hungary, Viktor Orbán,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Turkey, Aegean Sea

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*** 8-Sep-12 World View -- Canada severs all diplomatic relations with Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan-China island dispute being driven by popular nationalism on both sides
• Canada severs all diplomatic relations with Iran
• Canada suggests that its diplomats in Iran were in danger

****
**** Japan-China island dispute being driven by popular nationalism on both sides
****


Japanese activists circle the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands last month

In the past seven years, there have been three major crisis points in
China-Japan relations: spring 2005, fall 2010, and now this
summer. All of them have been related to so-called "history issues,"
such as perceived shortcomings in apologies by Japan for its wartime
conduct, textbook portrayals of Japan’s wartime conduct and visits by
Japanese politicians to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which
contains the graves of Japanese wartime generals. Additionally, the
latest two crises have been sparked by the territorial dispute over
the Senkaku/Diaoyu island chain. In the two previous crises, both
governments participated in overt escalation of tension, but
ultimately both had to back off after the tension had escalated beyond
expectations. This time, both governments try to quell tensions from
the beginning, but to no avail. Activists from both countries visited
the islands against the wishes of the governments, and were celebrated
in the press and blogs back home as "heroes." Polls show a distinct
trend line, that more people each year in each country are without
"positive feelings" towards the other country. This increase in
nationalism on both sides, as both countries go deeper into a
generational Crisis era, is an early sign that war is approaching.
Jamestown

****
**** Canada severs all diplomatic relations with Iran
****

In a move that surprised a lot of people, Canada on Friday severed all
diplomatic ties with Iran. The statement by Foreign Minister John
Baird lists a number of reasons:

• Canada views the Government of Iran as the most significant
  threat to global peace and security in the world today.
  
• The Iranian regime is providing increasing military assistance to
  the Assad regime
  
• it refuses to comply with UN resolutions pertaining to its
  nuclear program
  
• it routinely threatens the existence of Israel and engages in
  racist anti-Semitic rhetoric and incitement to genocide
  
• it is among the world’s worst violators of human rights
  
• and it shelters and materially supports terrorist groups,
  requiring the Government of Canada to formally list Iran as a state
  sponsor of terrorism under the Justice for Victims of Terrorism
  Act.
  
• The Iranian regime has shown blatant disregard for the Vienna
  Convention and its guarantee of protection for diplomatic
  personnel.

Canada's diplomats have already left Tehran, and Iran's diplomats have
been given five days to leave Canada. National Post (Ontario)

****
**** Canada suggests that its diplomats in Iran were in danger
****

Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said that the embassy in
Tehran was being closed primarily over concerns for the safety of
Canadian diplomats. "Our diplomats serve Canada as civilians and their
safety is my number one priority. They don’t sign up to be put in
harm’s way." He did not specify what threats Canada's diplomats were
facing. The danger may have been related to the 1979 hostage crisis
involving 50 American diplomats in the U.S. embassy in Tehran who were
held hostage for 444 days. At that time, Canada helped several
American diplomats escape Iran by allowing them to pretend to be
Canadians. More recently, protesters stormed the British Embassy in
November after the United Kingdom tightened sanctions against the
country, including targeting its central bank. The British Embassy in
Iran remains closed and the U.S. hasn’t had a diplomatic mission there
since 1979. Canada.com


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, China, Senkaku Islands, Diaoyu Islands,
Canada, Iran, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, John Baird

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*** 9-Sep-12 World View -- Palestinian president Abbas to return to the U.N. on September 27

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China backs down on forcing Hong Kong schools to teach 'patriotism'
• The 'Arab Spring' begins in West Bank as unemployment and prices soar
• Palestinian president Abbas to return to the U.N. on September 27

****
**** China backs down on forcing Hong Kong schools to teach 'patriotism'
****


Hong Kong - Tens of thousands of protesters cross their arms, symbolically saying 'Stop' to the government. (AP)

China has backed down on a plan to force Hong Kong children to take
patriotism classes that whitewash the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre
and the 1959 Great Leap Forward that killed tens of millions people
through starvation, and containing concepts such as,

"China's one party system is progressive, unifying and
selfless, as opposed to western multiparty systems that are
divisive and unhealthy."

The public has been increasingly furious about the plan for months,
and when it was finally rolled out two weeks ago, it faced nine days
of large protests, culminating in almost 100,000 protesters on
Saturday outside government headquarters. Some protesters staged
hunger strikes, and students had erected a replica of the democracy
statue that symbolised the student-led 1989 Tiananmen protests in
mainland China. As a result, the government backed down and
said that the program would be "voluntary."

The rift between Hong Kong and Beijing seems to be growing every day,
and Hong Kongers are increasingly contemptuous of mainlanders.
As we reported
last spring,
the song "Locust World" is popular in Hong Kong, describing
tourists from mainland China as "experts in stealing, cheating,
deceiving and lying." Hong Kong speaks Cantonese, different
from Mandarin that elite mainlanders speak.
In China's last generational crisis civil war, Mao's Communist
Revolution that climaxed in 1949, those who were able to escape to
Formosa (Taiwan) did so by passing through Hong Kong. It's likely
that Hong Kong will again play a pivotal role in China's next crisis
civil war. Al-Jazeera and Telegraph (London)

****
**** The 'Arab Spring' begins in West Bank as unemployment and prices soar
****

It was high food prices that sparked the "Arab Spring" uprisings in
Tunisia, Egypt and Syria early last year, and now soaring food and
fuel prices are sparking a wave of social protest across the West
Bank, as thousands of Palestinians took to the streets. The problems
are exacerbated by a very high unemployment rate, and by the fact that
many of those employed by the government are not being paid because of
a budget crunch facing the Palestinian Authority (PA). International
doners have slashed their support from $2 billion in 2008 to less than
$1 billion this year, of which only half has been delivered. Of the
$500 million that has been pledged but not delivered this year, 40% is
due from the United States, but is being held up by Congress. The
rest of the undelivered funds were pledged by Arab states. AFP and LA Times

****
**** Palestinian president Abbas to return to the U.N. on September 27
****


PA Presideht Mahmoud Abbas (R) at press conference in Ramallah on Saturday (AP)

Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas said on Saturday
that the ongoing protests are legitimate and that:

"The PA will not intervene, but we will stand in the
face of those who may try to sabotage or set fire or damage
(public properties). We are ready to respond as much as we can,
but protests must be civilized and popular. ...

We do not play around with the people’s fate. I am against armed
uprisings. I am against opening fire because I know how the
consequences of doing so affect our people. I am pro-peaceful
popular demonstrations whether they are against the [Israeli]
occupation or against the PA."

At the same news conference, Abbas said that the PA would go to the
United Nations General Assembly seeking non-member status on September
27, despite United States opposition:

"When we go to the UN, we will say we are a state
under occupation … we have 133 states who recognize a Palestinian
state with East Jerusalem as its capital, in addition to dozens of
other countries with whom we have good relations and diplomatic
representation.

We have before us two hard options; either we go to the UN knowing
what to expect after that, or we don’t go and yet by so doing we
will be losing out."

Abbas would like to get U.N. Security Council recognition of a
Palestinian state, but the U.S. has said it would veto any such
proposal. A vote by the General Assembly would give the Palestinian
territories non-member status, but not full recognition. Abbas had
intended to go to the United Nations last year, but was deterred by a
worldwide lobbying effort by the United States. Ma'an News (Bethlehem)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
Arab Spring, West Bank, Palestinian Authority,
Mahmoud Abbas, United Nations

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*** 10-Sep-12 World View -- Iraq: 100 dead in a wave of sectarian terrorist attacks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A 'long way to go' in talks between Greece and EU troika
• Iraq: 100 dead in a wave of sectarian terrorist attacks
• France providing direct aid to rebel opposition in Syria
• How to start a new business in America today

****
**** A 'long way to go' in talks between Greece and EU troika
****


Antonis Samaras - Greek Prime Minister

With Greece's membership in the eurozone hanging in the balance, Greek
officials are struggling to cut another 11.5 billion euros of public
spending out of the budget over the next two years. The Greeks have
to convince the EU "troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the
European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- which arrived in Athens on
Friday, that the cuts are real and will actually be implemented,
unlike a number of previous promised cuts that were forgotten as soon
as the bailout money was received. After Sunday's meeting, Greece's
Finance Ministry said,

"They have objections to some of the measures. They
want more details to understand some of the measures better.

This is just the start, there is a long way to go."

The troika officials have to approve the cost cutting measures to
secure the next tranche of the 31.5 billion euro EU-IMF bailout.
Approval is also required from the Socialist and Democratic Left
political parties. A decision will be reached by early October, just
in time to save Greece from bankruptcy.

There's a lot of talk these days about "Grexit," Greece's exit from
the euro currency. Last year I proposed the "Kick the Can Theory" for
the European financial crisis. It says that if you want to know
what's going to happen, just assume that European leaders will look
for a way to "kick the can down the road," meaning that they'll do the
minimum possible to postpone the crisis a little longer, to prevent a
current disaster without fixing the problem, so that the crisis will
recur in worse form weeks or months later. The Kick the Can Theory
has been right every time so far, and so we can expect that the
politicians will find some way to approve the bailout payment.
Kathimerini

****
**** Iraq: 100 dead in a wave of sectarian terrorist attacks
****

A wave of more than 20 attacks, thought to be by Sunni terrorists, on
Sunday left hundreds injured and up to 100 dead across Iraq. The
terrorist blasts were coordinated, targeting crowded marketplaces and
security forces in at least 11 cities across the nation. In Baghdad,
car bombs killed dozens in six mainly Shia Muslim neighborhoods.
Sectarian attacks have been increasing in Iraq for the following
reasons:

• The Syrian conflict is becoming increasingly sectarian, with
  the Alawites, an offshoot of Shia Islam comprising 12% of the
  population, is oppressively ruling over Sunni Muslims, comprising 2/3
  of the population. The Syrian conflict is inflaming sectarian
  tensions throughout the entire Mideast.
  
• The withdrawal of American forces last December has allowed much
  greater freedom for al-Qaeda linked terrorist groups to attack Shia
  targets in Iraq.
  
• On the day after the final American withdrawal, the Shia
  government issued an arrest warrant for Iraq's leading Sunni
  politician, vice-president Tareq al-Hashemi, further inflaming Sunni
  anger. Al-Hashemi has been hiding in Kurdish territory and in Turkey
  out of reach of the Shia government, but on Sunday a Baghdad court
  sentenced al-Hashemi to death by hanging in absentia.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the entire Mideast is
headed for a major sectarian Sunni/Shia war. Australian Broadcasting and LA Times

****
**** France providing direct aid to rebel opposition in Syria
****

In a potential escalation of the Syria conflict, France has started
providing direct aid and money to rebel-controlled areas and is even
considering supplying anti-aircraft weapons to the opposition. It's
now been several weeks since Lakhdar Brahimi replaced Kofi Annan as
Syria's "peace envoy," but as far as I know, he's accomplished nothing
except to say several times that he has no idea what to do. RT

****
**** How to start a new business in America today
****

From the "Financial Topics" thread of the Generational Dynamics Forum,
Higgenbotham is providing the following prudent and sage advice on how
to start a new business in America today:

These would be my thoughts on starting a business.

First, get ready for a post-collapse world. In the current
pre-collapse world, existing businesses are conditioned to operating
in the pre-collapse environment. They will be lost post-collapse. This
is when the prepared entrepreneur can step in.

To get ready for the post-collapse world, travel to a third world
country or to a country that has already collapsed and observe how
business is conducted. Talk to the locals to get an idea of what
business conditions were like pre-collapse and try to envision how the
conditions in the US that are different pre-collapse will change the
post-collapse environment vis-a-vis the country you are observing. I
chose to travel to one of the poorest areas of the former USSR to make
observations. It was formerly pretty well off because it was a
manufacturing area and not too far from Moscow.

Begin by pilot testing an idea with a very limited amount of capital
at risk. My thought would be less than 10% of capital should be risked
on the whole initial operation. Operate on a cash basis and under the
radar. Let's say that a formula for laundry soap has been obtained and
someone wants to make an attempt to manufacture this product. I would
not rush headlong into buying equipment, renting space, and other
things a conventional business person might do today. Instead, pay a
contract manufacturing outfit to mix some up on a small scale, then
figure out how to sell it. Observe what equipment the contract
manufacturer is using and do some research because that equipment may
be picked up for pennies on the dollar at auction when the
bankruptcies roll in. If it's thought that the future of America will
most resemble Detroit, Michigan or Las Vegas, Nevada, and there are
probably better places to consider but people can understand what I am
talking about by mentioning those places. Take the product there and
live there a few months. Figure out what works best to move it in the
post-collapse world of strip mall flea markets, craigslist, or
whatever is envisioned. See if customers match the envisioned
post-collapse profile and find out what else they need to buy where
they would seek alternatives to the current distribution channels, in
order to save a few bucks or which may be shut down,
post-collapse. Probably enough said, but that's my general idea.
Generational Dynamics Forum


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Antonis Samaras, Iraq,
Syria, Tareq al-Hashemi, France,
Lakhdar Brahimi, Higgenbotham

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*** 11-Sep-12 World View -- China's Xi Jinping disappears, spurring rumors of accident or assassination

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Assad regime turns to 'barrel bombs' for more thorough extermination
• Australia sending illegal migrants to Nauru and Manus islands
• China's Xi Jinping disappears, spurring rumors of accident or assassination
• Iran's rial currency crashes as sanctions hit oil revenues

****
**** Syria's Assad regime turns to 'barrel bombs' for more thorough extermination
****


A civilian neighborhood in Aleppo after al-Assad attacks it (AP)

Dissatisfied with the rate at which he can massacre innocent women and
children in their homes, the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad is turning to a more cataclysmic weapon. A "barrel bomb" is
an ordinary barrel packed with TNT, oil and chunks of steel. Assad's
regime is sending helicopters out to used these bombs to flatten
entire residential civilian neighborhoods, spraying as much blood as
possible. Telegraph (London) and Irish Independent

****
**** Australia sending illegal migrants to Nauru and Manus islands
****

Over 100 illegal migrants from countries including Malaysia,
Afghanistan and Pakistan arrive by boat or plane in Australia every
day. On August 13, Australia announced that new migrants would be
sent offshore to live in tents on Nauru and Manus islands, but that
hasn't deterred the flow. The two islands together only have a
capacity of 2100, and so the Australian government will be selective
about whom they send there, hoping to deter others from coming to
Australia. National Times (Australia) and Herald Sun (Australia)

****
**** China's Xi Jinping disappears, spurring rumors of accident or assassination
****


Xi Jinping greets Egypt's president Mohammed Morsi on August 31 in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing (AP)

Xi Jinping is the man who is expected to be chosen the new president
of China in April of next year, when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
makes its decennial generational change. However, Xi has not been
seen in a week, and he's canceled scheduled meetings, leading to
internet and media speculation that Xi is badly hurt, because of
either a traffic accident or an assassination attempt. Xi has
promised to reform China's economy and deal with "corruption and
ill-discipline in the party" as a top priority, creating a number of
enemies. China Post (Taiwan) and AP

****
**** Iran's rial currency crashes as sanctions hit oil revenues
****

Iran's rial currence slid to a record low against the dollar on
Monday, about half its value a year ago, after a slump of 17% since
Thursday. At the end of last year Iran had $106 billion of official
foreign reserves, enough to cover an ample 13 months of imports of
goods and services in normal times. However, the reserves may have
started falling as the sanctions have cut oil exports. Iran's monthly
sales of crude oil, its major source of hard currency, may have
dropped by nearly half in the course of this year. The crash in the
rial is pushing up domestic consumer prices for food and other goods,
adding to inflation that is already at double-digit levels. Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, barrel bombs,
Australia, Nauru island, Manus island, China, Xi Jinping,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Iran, rial

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*** 12-Sep-12 World View -- American embassies in Cairo and Benghazi under attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Protesters attack U.S. Embassy in Cairo Egypt
• U.S. consulate employee killed in attack on Libya embassy
• Catalonia demands independence from Spain
• Germany's Constitutional Court to rule on legality of bailouts
• Greece to determine WW II reparations from Germany for Nazi war crimes

****
**** Protesters attack U.S. Embassy in Cairo Egypt
****


Protesters attack the U.S. embassy in Cairo (DNE)

About 2000 Salafi protesters, chanting "There is no god but Allah,"
protested in front of the United States embassy in Cairo, Egypt.
Several dozen of the protesters climbed over the walls of the embassy
and tore down a large American flag, replacing it with a black flag on
which it was written: "There's no God but God and Muhammad is the
prophet of God." What triggered the protests was an American made
film, "Muhammad's Trial," posted on YouTube in July, that portrays
Muhammad as a womanizer, pedophile and fraud. The controversial film
is reportedly being produced by US-based expatriate Coptic-Christian
Egyptians, including Esmat Zaklama and Morees Sadek, with the support
of the Terry Jones Church in the United States. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and The Daily News Egypt

****
**** U.S. consulate employee killed in attack on Libya embassy
****

An armed angry mob attacked and set fire to the U.S. Consulate in
Benghazi, Libya, killing a consulate employee. The Benghazi attack
followed the Cairo attack by several hours, and protestors claimed it
was in response to the same film. Since the film has been available
on YouTube for several weeks, there is speculation that both protests
were organized by the same Salafist group. The situation is
reminiscent of the "Danish cartoons" that depicted Muhammad. ( "Cartoon controversy explodes into worldwide confrontations between Muslims and Westerners"
) The
cartoons were published in September, 2005, but nothing happened until
January, 2006, when uncontrolled mobs in Syria and Lebanon attacked
the Danish and Norwegian embassies. Al-Jazeera

****
**** Catalonia demands independence from Spain
****

As Spain becomes more and more deeply mired in the euro crisis, the
Catalonia region is adding to Spain's problems by demanding
independence. In particular, Catalonia wants to collect its own taxes
and pay its own expenses. Catalonia has already requested a 5 billion
euros bailout from Spain, but says that Catalonians pay 20 billion
euros each year in taxes to Madrid, and so they should be able to get
the 5 billion euros for free. Catalonia was one of the biggest
benefactors of Spain's huge real estate bubble, and the region used
the money from the bubble to go into further debt to pay for expensive
new projects that it now can't afford. Irish Times

****
**** Germany's Constitutional Court to rule on legality of bailouts
****

By the time that you read this on Wednesday morning, Germany's
Verfassungsgericht (Federal Constitutional Court) will probably have
ruled on an issue that has caused European politicians to hold their
breaths for weeks: Is the European bailout found (European Stability
Mechanism or ESM) legal under German constitutional law? A "NO"
ruling would send the markets into chaos, and so it's thought unlikely
that the court will make that ruling. However, many analysts expect a
"YES" with restrictions: The ESM is OK so far, but if Europeans want
to expand it, then doing so will require a vote of the Bundestag
(Parliament), and passage there would be very seriously in
doubt. Deutsche Welle

****
**** Greece to determine WW II reparations from Germany for Nazi war crimes
****

Greece's finance ministry has set up a "working group" to scour
historical archives and determine how much Germany might own to Greece
in outstanding reparations for Nazi war crimes during World War II.
It's estimated that the total will come to $7.5 million, a small
fraction of the money that Germany and the rest of Europe are spending
to bail Greece out. Greek Reporter/AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Salafists, Cairo, Terry Jones,
Esmat Zaklama, Morees Sadek, Benghazi, Libya,
Danish cartoons, Spain, Catalonia,
Germany, Verfassungsgericht, Federal Constitutional Court,
European Stability Mechanism, ESM, Greece,
Germany, WW II reparations

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Physics Of The Future How Science Will Shape Human Destiny And Our Daily Lives by Michio Kaku. The authors describes a pattern of financial bubbles: "...the Crash of 1850 was due to speculative fever...People ignored the lesson of the Crash of 1850, since that happened eighty years earlier in the the dim past...Once again, this bubble was unsustainable. For this and other reasons, the bubble popped in 1929, creating the Great Depression...Around the year 2090, hopefully people will not ignore the lesson of the previous eighty years." The author speculated that these recurring bubbles might be partly due to people having no personal memory of the previous bubble period.

*** 13-Sep-12 World View -- Increasingly nationalistic America sends warships and marines to Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. military forces converge on Libya for terrorist hunt
• Anti-Islam film that triggered riots was a scam
• Attack on U.S. embassies spurs renewed American nationalism
• Diplomat killed in Libya told fellow gamers: 'Hope I don’t die tonight'
• Nationalism in China and Japan heating up in East China Sea

****
**** U.S. military forces converge on Libya for terrorist hunt
****


Deceased Ambassador Chris Stevens (AP)

The Tuesday attack on the U.S. Consultate in Benghazi, Libya, that
ended up killing four employees, including U.S. Ambassador Chris
Stevens, was not a spontaneous mob attack triggered by a fil about
Mohammed. U.S. officials believe that al-Qaeda linked militants used
the film as a cover to launch a military attack on the Consulate, to
take revenge on Americans. The four Americans died in a coordinated
assault by gunmen firing assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades
and carrying the black flag of an Islamic extremist group.

The Obama administration has ordered to additional warships into the
Mediterranean, near the Libyan coast. An elite anti-terrorist unit of
40 Marines will be flown in to beef up security in the American
embassy in Tripoli (not Benghazi). FBI agents, along with a team to
protect them, will be sent to the Benghazi embassy to sift through the
wreckage for evidence.

American officials won't discuss the nature of any planned military
activity, but it's assumed that the plan is to identify the
perpetrators and, at the very least, bring them to justice. CBS News and McClatchy

****
**** Anti-Islam film that triggered riots was a scam
****

The film "Innocence of Muslims," that supposedly triggered the riots
in Cairo and Benghazi, was apparently a scam. The movie was filmed in
front of a green screen, with background scenary filled in later. The
actors who took part in the movie were told that it was a war drama
called "Desert Warrior," that had nothing to do with Mohammed or
Islam. After they were done, an editing team dubbed in different
words at specific points, to change the whole meaning of the movie.
It's still not known who caused the movie to be made, but one person,
55 year old Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, has come forward. He is
apparently an Egyptian expatriate Coptic Christian. The supposed
filmmaker, Sam Bacile, cannot be found, and it's thought that Bacile
is really Nakoula, based on Nakoula's middle name, "Basseley."
AP and LA Times

****
**** Attack on U.S. embassies spurs renewed American nationalism
****

Nationalism is increasing in countries around the world, as happens in
every generational Crisis era. We've particularly discussed this
nationalism many times with respect to China, Japan and the
Philippines. Some people say that nationalism is a good thing, some
say it's a bad thing. I do not assign a moral value to it, any more
than I assign a moral value to a rain storm or a sunny day. I'm
simply reporting the increases in nationalism and xenophobia as a
weatherman reports the weather. It's what it is.

Having said that, American nationalism took a big spurt on Wednesday.
On the political stage, President Obama began by expressing regret.
Mitt Romney responded with a nationalistic speech, saying that harsher
action was necessary, and the President shouldn't be apologizing.
Then President Obama realized that he'd lose votes if he didn't become
more nationalistic, and his next statement reflected that. Right now,
there appears to be something of a ping pong match going on, with each
side trying to out-nationalize the other.

A rainstorm can lead to good farm crop that feeds thousands of people,
at least temporarily, or it can lead to a flood that drowns thousands
of people. Nationalism can lead to a resolution of a dispute, at
least temporarily, or it can lead to full-scale all out war. We'll
have to wait and see how increased nationalism turns out this time.

****
**** Diplomat killed in Libya told fellow gamers: 'Hope I don’t die tonight'
****


Sean Smith = Vile Rat (AP)

One of the four Americans killed in Libya on Tuesday was an online
gamer, using the handle "Vile Rat" in the game "EVE Online." He was
an avid participant of EVE, having served in the game’s virtual
government as a cunning and influential intergalactic diplomat in a
sprawling virtual galaxy. On Tuesday night, he wrote to his fellow
gamers, "Assuming we don’t die tonight. We saw one of our ‘police’
that guard the compound taking pictures." He was dead a few hours
later. Wired and AP

****
**** Nationalism in China and Japan heating up in East China Sea
****

Just as an increasingly nationalistic America is sending warships to
Libya, an increasingly nationalistic China is sending warships to
the East China Sea.

The levels of nationalistic fury in China and Japan are continuing to
grow over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.
Japan's national government has purchased the islands from their
private owners, effectively "nationalizing" them. In response,
China's armed forces are sending two warships to the region, nominally
to provide weather reports. According to a Chinese statement, the
Chinese government will take all measures to safeguard national
territorial sovereignty. "Long gone are the days when the Chinese
territory could be grabbed only by an unequal treaty." The Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Benghazi, Chris Stevens, al-Qaeda,
Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, nationalism,
EVE Online, Sean Smith, Vile Rat, China,
Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu

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Originally Posted by TimWalker

> Physics Of The Future How Science Will Shape Human
> Destiny And Our Daily Lives by Michio Kaku. The authors
> describes a pattern of financial bubbles: "...the Crash of 1850
> was due to speculative fever...People ignored the lesson of the
> Crash of 1850, since that happened eighty years earlier in the the
> dim past...Once again, this bubble was unsustainable. For this
> and other reasons, the bubble popped in 1929, creating the Great
> Depression...Around the year 2090, hopefully people will not
> ignore the lesson of the previous eighty years." The author
> speculated that these recurring bubbles might be partly due to
> people having no personal memory of the previous bubble
> period.

Whenever I see something like this, I always wonder if perhaps he's
read my web site. This is an interesting paragraph because of its
obvious relationship to generational theory. As I've written many
times, mainstream macroeconomists, who have been completely wrong
about everything for at least 15 years, seem to have something
switched off in their minds that keep them from grasping even the
simplest and most obvious generational concept. So it's quite a
surprise that Michio Kaku does. But of course, he's not a mainstream
economist.

I see Kaku frequently on TV explaining scientific concepts. So the
other thing that's a surprise about this is that Kaku is ignoring the
fact that the Singularity will have occurred long before 2090, so what
he's writing about 2090 is nonsense. Is he as oblivious to the
Singularity as mainstream economists are to generational theory? Or
is he purposely lying in order to sell something, in his case a book?
If that's true, then he's not really very different than mainstream
economists after all.

*** 14-Sep-12 World View -- Pan-Arab Nationalism brings U.S. Embassies in Mideast under attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Four protesters killed in clashes at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen
• Has the fuse been lit?
• The role of blasphemy in jihadist movements
• Egypt facing 'million man protest' after Friday prayers
• Stocks surge again after Fed announces QE3

****
**** Four protesters killed in clashes at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen
****


In Sanaa Yemen, a protester burns a mock American Flag as protesters storm the U.S. embassy. (EPA)

Pan-Arab nationalist demonstrations at U.S. embassies spread
to numerous countries throughout the Mideast and beyond on Thursday.
There were small protests in Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Bangladesh
and Iraq, and continuing demonstrations in Egypt and Libya.
The biggest protest on Thursday was at the U.S. embassy
in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, where anti-American and
anti-Israeli protesters stormed the embassy, chanting "death
to America" and "death to Israel." Four protesters were
killed and dozens injured by police gunfire, but no embassy
personnel were killed.

Yemen's president, Libya's president and Egypt's president all
apologized for the embassy attacks. The Libyan government says that
it's arrested four men involved in the killing of U.S. ambassador
Chris Stevens, but that hasn't been confirmed. National Yemen and CNN

****
**** Has the fuse been lit?
****

There's been a lot of talk about a lit fuse that's leading to a huge
explosion in the Mideast, similar to the 1979 Great Islamic
Revolution. Perhaps that's true, and the Generational Dynamics
prediction is for a major sectarian Sunni vs Shia war, but I see
little signs of it so far. The 2005 Danish cartoon protests looked
they would explode, but they fizzled within a few weeks. The "Arab
Spring" protests have been going on for almost 20 months, and the
protests we've been seeing this week have not, so far, been as big as
those. So it's possible that the situation will explode in the next
couple of weeks, but it's at least equally likely that the current
round of anti-American protests will fizzle, at least for now. I
would suggest to everyone that you not go too far out on a limb
predicting a new revolution.

****
**** The role of blasphemy in jihadist movements
****

I continue to be impressed with the role of charges of blasphemy as a
common theme in the jihadist movement. The protesters in Cairo and
Benghazi were not protesting America's support for Israel, or for
drone strikes, or for Guantanamo or against Christians. They were
protesting blasphemy. The Danish cartoon protests were for
blasphemy. In Pakistan, jihadists groups kill Shia and Sufi
worshippers almost on a daily basis, and the reason given is always
blasphemy, as I described in "26-Apr-12 World View -- New report examines terrorism and religious extremism in Pakistan"
,

For some reason, charges of blasphemy seem to be able to stir up
extremely angry passions among Sunni Muslims. In Pakistan, there have
been numerous examples where the population simply didn't care if some
perfectly innocent person was murdered or jailed, if there were
fatuous charges of blasphemy involved. Charges of blasphemy have
targeted far more Muslims than non-Muslims.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a mass
phenomenon that's typical of generational hatreds. In the past, I've
hypothesized that this behavior in Pakistan is similar to the refusal
of American prosecutors to investigate and prosecute banksters for
massive incidents of fraud. And as I explained in "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust"
, this is also the same behavior that led to the
1930s Holocaust. This kind of mass generational hatred only leads to
one place: catastrophe.

My interpretation of the situation is as follows: Sunni jihadists have
been trying for years to repeat the success of the Iran's 1979 Great
(Shia) Islamic Revolution, but to do so in a Sunni Islam country, and
they've failed over and over and over. This is just another try
that's likely to fail, but the one thing they use repeatedly to stir
up mass fury in Sunni crowds is charges of blasphemy.

****
**** Egypt facing 'million man protest' after Friday prayers
****

Friday has always been a big day in the Arab Spring protests, because
the mosques fill up for midday prayers on Fridays. After the midday
prayers are over, people pour out of the mosques into the streets for
protests. Protests have been non-stop since Tuesday in Cairo Egypt
near the U.S. embassy. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist Nour
Party have called for a "million man protest" on Friday after midday
prayers, with the protest once again motivated by charges of
blasphemy. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Stocks surge again after Fed announces QE3
****

The Federal Reserve announced a new quantitative easing program on
Thursday. In the QE3 program, the Fed will "print" $40 billion per
month, and use it to purchase an equal amount of mortgage debt. This
will theoretically lower mortgage interest rates, possibly to below 3%
on a 30-year fixed mortgage, which will theoretically spur economic
growth. All the previous programs have been failures, but
theoretically "this time it's different" because the program is
open-ended, and the mortgage debt purchases can continue indefinitely.
Stocks surged on Wall Street as excited as banksters and traders
looked for ways that they could get their cuts of the new outlays.
Bloomberg

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Sanaa, Egypt, Libya,
Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Bangladesh, Iraq, Danish cartoons,
Muslim Brotherhood, Salafist Nour party,
Quantitative easing, QE3

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