*** 15-Sep-12 World View -- Japan/China confrontation brews as China sends warships

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's 'million man march' fizzles as protesters attack in Sudan and Tunisia
• Japan/China confrontation brews as China sends warships to Senkaku islands
• Attacks on Japanese in Beijing increase as September 18 approaches
• Chinese expats in Athens Greece protest against Japan

****
**** Egypt's 'million man march' fizzles as protesters attack in Sudan and Tunisia
****


Sudanese policemen stand guard after protesters attacked the German and British embassies in Khartoum

Arab protests at U.S. embassies in the Mideast continued for a fourth
day on Friday, but the promised "million man march" in Cairo Egypt
fizzled for the most part, although a smaller demonstration continues.
There were small demonstrations throughout the Mideast, but the
attacks in Sudan and Nigeria were more significant. In Khartoum,
angry protesters attacked the British and German Embassies on Friday,
setting fire to parts of the buildings. They also tore down the German
flag and raised an Islamist banner. In Tunis, at least two people
were killed and 29 others were wounded on Friday when police fought
hundreds of protesters who ransacked the U.S. embassy. Hundreds of
protesters wielding petrol bombs, stones and sticks had charged at the
security forces protecting the embassy before jumping a wall to invade
the compound. "Obama, Obama, we are all Osamas," they chanted. They
pulled down the U.S. flag flying over the embassy, burned it, and
replaced it with a black flag emblazoned with the Shahada, the Islamic
declaration of faith. The Sun (London) and Spiegel and Reuters

****
**** Japan/China confrontation brews as China sends warships to Senkaku islands
****

Last week, Japan's government "purchased" the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
from a family that it recognizes as the owner. The islands are
disputed by China, and the purpose of the purchase was to head off
some highly nationalistic actions by the Mayor of Tokyo that the
federal government. However, the Chinese viewed this as a sign of
weakness, and sent six warships to the islands. The Foreign Ministry
issued a statement:

"Two Chinese surveillance ship fleets have arrived at
waters around the Diaoyu Islands and adjacent islands on September
14, 2012, to start patrol and law enforcement. These law
enforcement and patrol activities are designed to demonstrate
China’s jurisdiction over the islands and safeguard its maritime
interests."

Japan's Foreign Minister said, "I’d like to underscore that we should
never let the situation escalate. We have strong hopes the Chinese
government will respond to the situation in an appropriate and also a
calm manner."

This is probably a good time to remind readers that the Senkaku/Diaoyu
are considered Japanese territory under the mutual defense treaty that
the United States and Japan signed in 1960. Under the terms of the
treaty, we're obligated to go to war with China to defend the islands
if China attacks them. AFP and Xinhua

****
**** Attacks on Japanese in Beijing increase as September 18 approaches
****

In Beijing, at least six Japanese were reported to have been attacked.
In Shanghai, one man was injured when hot noodles were poured on him.
The attacks were triggered by the confrontation over the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and are expected to increase in the next few
days. September 18 marks the 81st anniversary of the brutal Japanese
occupation of China, a memory that still evokes xenophobic reactions
in China. The Hindu

****
**** Chinese expats in Athens Greece protest against Japan
****

The confrontation between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu
islands has spread to Greece. About 200 members of the Chinese
community in Greece gathered outside the Japanese embassy building,
raising banners and placards in Chinese, English and Greek saying,
"Chinese expats in Greece firmly oppose Japanese occupation to Chinese
territory Diaoyu Islands." Xinhua



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, million man march, Tunisia,
Sudan, Japan, China, Senkaku islands, Diaoyu islands,
Greece

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*** 16-Sep-12 World View -- Huge Anti-Japan protests spread across China, turn violent

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• State Dept. orders evacuations of Americans out of Tunisia and Sudan
• Libyan officials say that the Benghazi attack was very well planned
• Huge Anti-Japan protests spread across China, turn violent
• Japanese do not believe that U.S. will support them over Senkaku islands
• China's non-Communist parties condemn Japan's Senkaku/Diaoyu policy
• New Fed quantitative easing program unlikely to affect anything

****
**** State Dept. orders evacuations of Americans out of Tunisia and Sudan
****


Libyans hold signs on Friday to express sympathy for Americans killed (AP)

The State Department on Saturday ordered the departure of all family
members and non-essential U.S. government personnel from its embassies
in Sudan and Tunisia and warned U.S. citizens against any travel to
the two countries due to security concerns over rising anti-American
violence. Saturday is the fifth day of anti-American protests in some
20 countries in the Mideast and beyond. AP and State Dept. (re Tunisia) and State Dept. (re Sudan)

****
**** Libyan officials say that the Benghazi attack was very well planned
****

Libyan officials believe that Tuesday's attack on the US consulate in
Benghazi, killing US ambassador Chris Stevens, was planned,
"meticulously executed" and may have involved foreign elements.
According to Libya's General National Congress president Mohammed
al-Megaryef:

"There was planning. It was not a peaceful protest
which degenerated into an armed attack or aggression. That's how
it was planned.

[The attack] was prepared, especially since it coincided with the
date of September 11.

There are non-Libyan elements on Libyan soil and they plan to
carry out their own agendas on our territory.

The attack itself and the manner in which the attack
occurred... confirms that this was planned and programmed to
achieve a purpose.

I do not exclude discovering things that will link Al Qaeda and
the US consulate attack."

US military and intelligence agencies have launched an elaborate
manhunt in Libya against the militants suspected of staging the most
serious assault on an American diplomatic mission in decades.

Early indications are that the attack was carried out not by the main
al-Qaida terror group but "al-Qaida sympathizers." A leading suspect
is the Libyan-based Islamic militant group Ansar al-Shariah, led by
former Guantanamo detainee Sufyan bin Qumu. Australian Broadcasting and AP

****
**** Huge Anti-Japan protests spread across China, turn violent
****


Chinese paramilitary police try to prevent demonstrators from breaking through a fence set up outside the Japanese Embassy in Beijing (AP)

In the largest anti-Japan protests since China and Japan normalized
diplomatic ties in 1972, more than 70,000 Chinese staged rallies
Saturday in at least 28 cities to demand that Japan surrender the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands to China. The largest demonstration, in
Qingdao, Shandong Province, attracted as many as 30,000 people and
evolved into rioting as protestors torched as many as 10 Japanese
enterprises, including a Panasonic factory. In Beijing, police
deployed more than 100 officers as well as 100 vehicles around the
Japanese Embassy to prevent protesters from taking violent action. But
clashes ensued as an estimated 1,000 protestors busted barricades,
blocked traffic and hurled plastic bottles and eggs onto the embassy
grounds. Carrying Chinese flags, they chanted "Protect the Diaoyu
Islands" and "Slap economic sanctions on Japan." When there are
protests against China's government, the Chinese security forces clamp
down hard, but these rallies appeared to have the tacit approval of
Chinese authorities. Japan Times

****
**** Japanese do not believe that U.S. will support them over Senkaku islands
****

Although the United States is nominally committed to supporting Japan
in a confrontation over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, according to the
terms of a 1960 defense treaty, many Japanese do not believe that
America will honor that commitment. According to one Japanese
analyst:

"There is a perception in Japan that the
U.S. commitment is ambiguous. If China thinks Japan will hesitate
to respond or that America will hesitate, that will embolden the
Chinese. It’s better that America sends a clear, explicit message
now than have to respond to something worse later.

If Japan loses the islands and the U.S. doesn’t come to aid Japan,
the credibility of not only the U.S. alliance with Japan but of
all U.S. alliances globally would be severely
harmed."

This last sentence is extremely significant. The U.S. has defense
treaties with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand
(ANZUS treaty), Israel, Europe, Iceland, and others. All of these
countries have cut back on their own military in the last 65 years
because they've counted on U.S. protection. If the U.S. repudiated
its treaty commitment to Japan, then every one of these other
countries would go into total panic, with disastrous geopolitical
consequences. Time

****
**** China's non-Communist parties condemn Japan's Senkaku/Diaoyu policy
****

China's non-Communist parties on Saturday released a joint statement
expressing strong indignation over, and condemnation of, Japan's
"purchase" of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. What fascinated me about
this story is that I thought all non-Communist parties in China were
against the law, so imagine my surprise that here's a bunch of them
issuing a statement. The statement was issued by the central
committees of:

• The Revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang
• Chinese Democratic League
• China National Democratic Construction Association
• China Association for Promoting Democracy
• Chinese Peasants and Workers Democratic Party
• China Zhi Gong Party
• Jiu San Society
• Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League.

According to the statement:

"China's non-Communist parties voice strong
indignation over and rigorously condemn the move.

Most non-Communist parties were born during the time of war
against Japan's invasion (in the 1930s and '40s). Having had
fought for the Chinese nation's independence and liberation, these
parties, traditionally being patriotic and peace-loving, are
staunch guards of the nation's territorial sovereignty," the
statement added.

The Chinese nation is peace-loving, so are its people. China has
no intention to impinge on other countries' territorial
sovereignty, but will not tolerate any infringement on its own
sovereignty by other countries. Long gone is the time when the
Chinese nation was bullied by others.

If the Japanese government underestimates Chinese people's
determination, courage or strength, it would be a miscalculation
and they are doomed to fail."

Xinhua

****
**** New Fed quantitative easing program unlikely to affect anything
****

The massive new quantitative easing program (QE3) announced by Fed
chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to have any effect whatsoever, based
on the result of a survey of nearly 1,500 CFOs from a broad range of
public and private companies. The survey was conducted jointly by CFO
Magazine (where I used to be the Technology Editor) and Duke
University. The QE3 program is supposed to make it easier for banks
to lend money to businesses at lower interest rates, so that
businesses will use the money ton invest and create jobs. The main
finding is this:

"U.S. finance chiefs say that interest rate reductions
of 1 or 2 percentage points would not alter their capital spending
plans, indicating that potential monetary policy actions by the
Federal Reserve are unlikely to spur the corporate sector to
action."

The report showed that 91% of the 1,500 CFOs polled wouldn’t bolster
their spending plans even if the Fed’s programs successfully lowered
interest rates by one percentage point. And 84% said a two-point
reduction in rates wouldn’t change their spending plans either.
According to a finance professor at Duke, "The survey paints a stark
picture. In current circumstances, lower interest rates will not spur
investment. The potential QE3 is doomed."

The irony is that Ben Bernanke made his reputation based on his
research that "proved" that the 1930s Great Depression could have been
avoided if the Fed at that time had lowered interest rates by a small
amount. This finding has now been totally disproved, as Generational
Dynamics predicted years ago, and now Bernanke is in a state of total
panic, hoping against hope for a miracle. Fox Business and CFO Survey Press Release (PDF)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, State Dept., Libya, Tunisia, Sudan,
Ansar al-Shariah, Sufyan bin Qumu,
Japan, China, Senkaku Islands, Diaoyu Islands,
Fed, Quantitative easing, QE3

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Mr. Xenakis,

First, I enjoy your website for the most part. I like the fact you post stories of overseas events that are usually ignored by the US media. The rise of nationalism overseas and its impact on the events now and in the future are frightening prospect indeed. I appreciate your time and effort to maintain your website.

I do, however, disagree with some of your conclusions regarding the influence and impact of Gen X, my generation, on the causes of the current economic crisis. I've see where you have stated that the Boomers were in charge in the 1980's and prosecuted financial criminals and now Gen X refuses to do this. In the 1980's our country was firmly still in Silent and even GI control. The Silents were in their peak earning years as well as dominating Congress and Govt Departments (under GI Presidents). It was only the end of the 80's did the Boomers begin to take power with the rise of Gingrich, Clinton etc. By 1992 the Boomer began to take the reigns of power and have had them ever since. Only int he late 2000's has Gen X began to increase its power and influence. Especially in the 2010 elections but I believe (although I could be wrong) that Boomers still outnumber Gen x in Congress and are not even close controlling the Senate.

I'm not claiming Gen Xers didn't have a role in creating the financial situation but they were operating in a system created and managed by Boomers. IMHO it'll be the Xers who finally confront the financial debt we have created and make the hard choices at their political peril to deal with the excesses created by the Boomers and Silents who went on a 25 year spending binge. Gen X will do the dirty work as well as pay for the sacrifices to be made with less benefits in old age than Boomers and Silents will suffer.

Once the Millies establish control 30 yrs from now they'll begin anew creating a new entitlement system that eventually will benefit them and begin plant the seeds for a new crisis many years later....

As you might imagine, I've had hundreds of conversations on this
subject during the last ten years, and a lot of Gen-Xers agree with
me, and a lot of Boomers disagree with me.

Here's a brief outline of the response:

• Gen-Xers hate Boomers, blame them for pretty much everything, and were
  particularly infuriated by the Nasdaq crash in 2000, where many
  Gen-Xers lost money and blamed it all on the Boomers.
  
• In the 1990s, Gen-Xers poured out of grad schools with masters degrees
  in financial engineering, and poured into financial institutions.
  
• After the Nasdaq crash, these Gen-X financial engineers purposely
  created tens of trillions of dollars of extremely complex synthetic
  securities, knowing that they were fraudulent, lied to their bosses
  about them, and sold them to the hated Boomers, intending to defraud them.
  
• Their Boomer bosses could not possibly have been responsible for these
  fraudulent securities because they didn't have the vaguest clue how they
  worked. If they suspected something was wrong, they kept quiet because they
  were making so much money, and they were as greedy and irresponsible as
  their Gen-X employees.
  
• Even if you're right that the Gen-Xers created these fraudulent securities
  under the direction of their Boomer bosses, it wouldn't make any difference
  because of the Nuremberg Principle.
  
• Blaming everything on the Boomers is the same thing that Germany's
  1930s Lost Generation did, blaming everything on the Missionary
  Generation in general, and on the Jews in particular.
  
• Refusing to blame Gen-Xer financial engineers for serious crimes,
  is generationally the same thing that happened when the Germans
  refused to blame other Germans for the Holocaust. We see this again in
  Pakistan, where Sunnis are refusing to blame other Sunnis for jailing,
  torture and murder of Shias and Sufis.
  
• Gen-Xers are doing the same thing the Germans did: Using the
  "Nuremberg defense" to defend Gen-Xer criminals: "I was just doing
  what my bosses told me to do."

Here is the Nuremberg Principle:

"The fact that a person acted pursuant to order of his Government or
of a superior does not relieve him from responsibility under
international law, provided a moral choice was in fact possible to
him."

If you'd like, you might enjoy the draft of my new book, where I go
into all this in lengthy detail:

** For Boomers: How to Survive in a Generation-X World
** http://generationaldynamics.com/gx113

There's also a thread in the Generational Dynamics forum where this
subject was heatedly debated:

** Generation-X culture vs Boomer culture
** http://generationaldynamics.com/foru...hp?f=10&t=1076

Also, this weekend Al-Jazeera ran a lengthy program about how the
Obama justice department refuses to prosecute bankster criminals
because of huge campaign contributions. It makes the point that a
Romney administration would be no different, for the same reasons.
This financial crisis is far from over, and it's a generational
catastrophe, not a political catastrope.

** Why has Wall Street not been held accountable for crimes
** connected to the deepest recession since the Great Depression?
** http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/...638276495.html

John

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

As you might imagine, I've had hundreds of conversations on this
subject during the last ten years, and a lot of Gen-Xers agree with
me, and a lot of Boomers disagree with me.

Here's a brief outline of the response:

• Gen-Xers hate Boomers, blame them for pretty much everything, and were
  particularly infuriated by the Nasdaq crash in 2000, where many
  Gen-Xers lost money and blamed it all on the Boomers.
• In the 1990s, Gen-Xers poured out of grad schools with masters degrees
  in financial engineering, and poured into financial institutions.
• After the Nasdaq crash, these Gen-X financial engineers purposely
  created tens of trillions of dollars of extremely complex synthetic
  securities, knowing that they were fraudulent, lied to their bosses
  about them, and sold them to the hated Boomers, intending to defraud them.
• Their Boomer bosses could not possibly have been responsible for these
  fraudulent securities because they didn't have the vaguest clue how they
  worked. If they suspected something was wrong, they kept quiet because they
  were making so much money, and they were as greedy and irresponsible as
  their Gen-X employees.
• Even if you're right that the Gen-Xers created these fraudulent securities
  under the direction of their Boomer bosses, it wouldn't make any difference
  because of the Nuremberg Principle.
• Blaming everything on the Boomers is the same thing that Germany's
  1930s Lost Generation did, blaming everything on the Missionary
  Generation in general, and on the Jews in particular.
• Refusing to blame Gen-Xer financial engineers for serious crimes,
  is generationally the same thing that happened when the Germans
  refused to blame other Germans for the Holocaust. We see this again in
  Pakistan, where Sunnis are refusing to blame other Sunnis for jailing,
  torture and murder of Shias and Sufis.
• Gen-Xers are doing the same thing the Germans did: Using the
  "Nuremberg defense" to defend Gen-Xer criminals: "I was just doing
  what my bosses told me to do."

Here is the Nuremberg Principle:

"The fact that a person acted pursuant to order of his Government or
of a superior does not relieve him from responsibility under
international law, provided a moral choice was in fact possible to
him."

If you'd like, you might enjoy the draft of my new book, where I go
into all this in lengthy detail:

** For Boomers: How to Survive in a Generation-X World
** http://generationaldynamics.com/gx113

There's also a thread in the Generational Dynamics forum where this
subject was heatedly debated:

** Generation-X culture vs Boomer culture
** http://generationaldynamics.com/foru...hp?f=10&t=1076

Also, this weekend Al-Jazeera ran a lengthy program about how the
Obama justice department refuses to prosecute bankster criminals
because of huge campaign contributions. It makes the point that a
Romney administration would be no different, for the same reasons.
This financial crisis is far from over, and it's a generational
catastrophe, not a political catastrope.

** Why has Wall Street not been held accountable for crimes
** connected to the deepest recession since the Great Depression?
** http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/...638276495.html

John

The Boomers at the head of the financial institutions are the ones to be held responsible. What you are saying is the Boomers were too stupid, gullible, greedy or incompetent to understand what their underlings were doing? I find that hard to believe. Remember the adage, "the buck stops here"....Leaders are responsible for what happens under their charge....During the 90's to 2000's the Presidents(Clinton and Bush) CEO's, heads of the SEC and financial regulators, Attorney Generals, US Attorneys etc were almost all Boomers....they got this party started and enjoyed every minute of it while the cash rolled in....

Second the Holder (Boomer) Justice Dept has had 4 years to prosecute these people, they haven't done so. More likely due to the fact that most were major financial backers of Barack Obama in 08.

The idea that Xers all massively conspired to defraud Boomers out of revenge is ludicrous. My generation grew up worshiping the mighty dollar to be sure. We are motivated by money profits ect. We even can be devious and cunning some outright criminal. But Xers by and large were motivated to help themselves. Any fraud committed by Xers were for themselves, not to exact revenge on Boomers....Did Xers contribute to the problem with this attitude? Absolutely!...did they do it for revenge?...nope

The Boomers with their self indulgence and narcissism created the "hey I got mine" mentality and "he who dies with the most toys wins" mantra that we bought into.

Its going to take Xers to clean this up, they are the only ones with the nuts to fix our debt and take on the sacred cows of entitlements, public employee unions etc....

I'm not saying the Boomers aren't responsible. I'm saying that the Gen-Xers were the criminals,
and the Boomers were the enablers and co-conspirators. They ALL belong in jail.

Sorry if I sound snarky, i just disagree with some of your conclusion about Gen Xers. I do really enjoy your weblog and read it frequently.

Originally Posted by Weave

Sorry if I sound snarky, i just disagree with some of your conclusion about Gen Xers. I do really enjoy your weblog and read it frequently.

You should see what some people call me. You weren't snarky at all.
Thanks for the question.

*** 17-Sep-12 World View -- Jund al-Sharia jihadists clash with Egypt's army in Sinai

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violent anti-Japan protests in China spread to more cities
• Taiwan rejects China's request to join forces against Japan
• Leon Panetta says that China and Japan are heading toward war
• Jund al-Sharia jihadists clash with Egypt's army in Sinai
• Bangkok Thailand may become a modern-day Atlantis
• Europeans have mixed emotions about President Obama's foreign policy

****
**** Violent anti-Japan protests in China spread to more cities
****


Leon Panetta arrives at Yokota Air Base near Tokyo (AP)

Thousands of Chinese held demonstrations, some of them violent,
against Japan's claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, in cities across
China. Japanese officials warned citizens in China not to taxis alone
or speak loudly in Japanese while in public. In some cities, Japanese
factories, grocery shops, restaurants and car dealerships were damaged
or looted. In Beijing, over a thousand marchers hurled water bottles
at the Japanese embassy, chanting, "Knock down the little Japanese,"
"Long live the People's Republic of China" and "China will prevail."
The protests are expected to continue at least through Tuesday,
the 81st anniversary of Japan's 1931 invasion of Manchuria.

Demonstrations also spread to some American cities. About 1,000
people, organized by the Houston Diaoyu Islands Coalition, gathered
Saturday morning at Chinatown in Houston to assert China's ownership
of the Sankaku/Diaoyu Islands. In Chicago's Chinatown, more than 60
overseas Chinese organizations and business entities joined force in
organizing anti-Japan protests on Saturday. LA Times and China Radio International

****
**** Taiwan rejects China's request to join forces against Japan
****

Japan calls them the Sankaku Islands, and China calls them the
Diaoyu Islands. But Taiwan also claims them as being part of
Taiwan (as opposed to mainland China), and Taiwan calls them
the Diaoyutai Islands. Beijing considers Taiwan to be part
of mainland China, and so has no objections to Taiwan's
claims on the disputed islands. China is requesting
that Taiwan cooperate with Beijing in opposing Japan's
claims to the islands. But a Taiwanese official responded:

"The Republic of China [Taiwan] has indisputable
sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands. In light of the
long-running sovereignty dispute across the Taiwan Strait, the
idea of cross-strait cooperation to resolve the territorial row is
unseemly."

Taipai Times

****
**** Leon Panetta says that China and Japan are heading toward war
****

U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta warned that Asian
countries could end up in war if governments keep up their
"provocative behavior." According to Panetta:

"I am concerned that when these countries engage in
provocations of one kind or another over these various islands,
that it raises the possibility that a misjudgment on one side or
the other could result in violence, and could result in
conflict.

And that conflict would then have the potential of
expanding."

Panetta made the remarks as he traveled to Asia, where he plans to
visit Japan, China and New Zealand.

To anyone who has been closely following this issue, as I have, it's
perfectly clear that Panetta is right. China is provoking military
confrontations with the Japanese near the Sankaku/Diaoyu/Diaoyutai
Islands, and will not back down under any circumstances, while a
backdown by Japan would be extremely humiliating and destabilizing.
AFP

****
**** Jund al-Sharia jihadists clash with Egypt's army in Sinai
****

When Hosni Mubarak was president of Egypt, he was able to keep the
Sinai, the region near the border with Israel populated by Bedouins,
under tight control. Since Mubarak's overthrow, the Sinai has become
increasingly lawless, and infiltrated by al-Qaeda linked militants,
particularly Jund al-Sharia in recent months. On August 5, armed
militants ambushed and killed 16 Egyptian soldiers on the border with
Israel. The public was furious with the new president Mohamed Morsi
especially when it was revealed that Israeli intelligence had warned
the Egyptians in advance that an attack was coming. Morsi reacted by
send army units into the Sinai to root out the militants, but the
effort has been largely a failure.

On Sunday, al-Qaeda linked militants attacked Egypt's security
headquarters in northern Sinai with machine guns and mortar bombs and
fought troops elsewhere in the desert region, killing one soldier and
wounding seven. Two days earlier, on Friday, militias stormed a base
housing the international peacekeeping force, the Multinational Force
and Observers (MFO), wounding four. The MFO was established in 1981
to implement the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. The base
has some 1000 MFO personnel, mostly Colombian and Fijian, and is
commanded by the U.S. It's believed that Jund al-Sharia was
responsible for all these attacks. Long War Journal and Australian AP and Israel National News

Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong, is quoting its military
intelligence sources as saying that Sunday's attacks by Salafi Bedouin
and al-Qaeda militia market a major and dangerous escalation in the
Sinai situation, and that the jihadists now plan to attack Israeli
targets. Debka assigns the blame to a different al-Qaeda linked
group, the Army of Islam, which it says are now "at the forefront of
the violent Islamist protest against the United States sweeping across
the Middle East and Asia." Debka notes that because of other
international issues, there is little public knowledge of the true
impact. Debka

****
**** Bangkok Thailand may become a modern-day Atlantis
****

Last year's floods were Thailand's worst disaster in living memory.
Since then, the country has been doing as much as possible to prevent
a recurrence. Water management through Bangkok has been improved,
including the dredging of over 500 kilometers of canals in
Bangkok. Reinforced walls have been built around industrial centers,
after worldwide availability of hard disks and other computer
components was crippled over flooding at Bangkok factories for
companies like Hitachi, Nikon, Sony and Honda. But in the long run,
it's a losing battle. The increasing population is sucking up ground
water, causing parts of Bangkok to sink further. And architecture
firm made headlines recently when it designed a Bangkok cityscape
floating on water. By 2030, Bangkok may have become a modern-day
Atlantis. The Diplomat

****
**** Europeans have mixed emotions about President Obama's foreign policy
****

In my opinion, Barack Obama's most important speech in the 2008
campaign was his speech in Berlin, which I wrote about in July, 2008,
in "Barack Obama in Berlin calls for greater European militarism,"
. The German press said that
"Germany has caught Obamania!" as he faced huge, wildly enthusiastic
crowds. What was obvious at the time was that the German people and
the German press paid no attention to what Obama was actually saying,
which was highly militaristic, but with promises to significantly
improve America's image in the Arab and Muslim world.

Today, the German press are saying that Obama's Mideast policies have
failed and "Obama's Middle East policy is in ruins," although the same
commentators hasten to add that Mitt Romney's reaction was "not just
nonsense, but partisan maneuvering." One German commentator wrote of
the Arab nations, "America hardly has influence in the region any
longer, and now sees itself confronted with anti-American sentiment in
places where it no longer controls the dictators. Meanwhile, forces
that simultaneously exploit and spurn America are gaining influence."

However, there is still one group of Europeans that unabashedly adore
President Obama - the minorities in France. Obama’s 2008 victory had
an explosive impact here, shining a harsh light on the dearth of
French blacks or Arabs in positions of power and offering the
country’s minorities a new source of inspiration. For example,
Anthony Borval, a 29 year old black Frenchman of Caribbean descent,
says:

"It was intense, I felt almost American. Obama
indirectly sent us a message that anything was possible, a message
of hope for minorities in France, where it’s difficult for us to
succeed. ...

His victory taught French people of colour to believe in
ourselves. Today, I still feel great pride that an
African-American is running the world’s superpower."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, if you ignore
rhetoric, then there's little difference in outcomes if Obama's first
term had instead been President Bush's third term. What I think is
interesting about this situation is the difference between
"likeability" and "policy," a difference that appears to be extremely
important in the current election. Polls indicate that Obama is far
more "likeable" than Romney, but many Obama supporters are extremely
disillusioned about Obama's policies.

A historical example of this difference is Winston Churchill. He was
not well liked, but he became prime minister because of his policies
toward the Nazis. Churchill was still disliked during WW II, and was
thrown out of office a nanosecond after the war ended. So as a new
world war approaches, anyone still alive when the war ends will have
leave to contemplate the roles that likeability and policy played in
the war. Spiegel and France 24

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, China, Senkaku, Diaoyu,
Houston, Chicago, Taiwan, Republic of China,
Diaoyutai, Leon Panetta,
Egypt, Sinai, Jund al-Sharia, Hosni Mubarak,
Multinational Force and Observers, MFO, Army of Islam,
Thailand, Bangkok, Atlantis,
Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Obamania, France,
Winston Churchill, Germany

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** For Boomers: How to Survive in a Generation-X World

Got one of these for millennials? Some of my generation X managers have been the most fraudulent people I've ever worked with, I had one steal money from my own cash register and try to frame me for it.

I find your daily blogs very insightful and a better source for news than our own media. I can't understand why people on this board find you so polarizing considering the fact that you're the only rational person here. I think it's because this board attracts a lot of nuts looking for some place to belong. 90% of what they talk about is pop culture rubbish, but bring someone in who actually wants to talk about the theory and how it applies to the world today and they become hostile. It's very interesting to watch.

Oh, I don't know why Xers refuse to acknowledge this about their own generation, an Xer friend of mine insists that nothing that happened during the housing bubble was fraudulent! ...I don't know what to say to that.

Originally Posted by Felix5

Oh, I don't know why Xers refuse to acknowledge this about their own generation, an Xer friend of mine insists that nothing that happened during the housing bubble was fraudulent! ...I don't know what to say to that.

There was much fraud but what often gets ignored was the role of the Federal Reserve and the government in creating the conditions for it. The question you need to ask is what were the incentives that caused lending standards to fall. How would lenders act without the FHA effectively protecting them from losing money on bad loans? I am not saying that the fraud did not occur but rather their was a systemic cause that did not originate with the lenders. Please read the links because they will give you a clearer picture of what happened.


Now the usual suspects, Brian, playwrite and Odin will begin the process of shouting me down because they don't want to know that their god has failed.

Originally Posted by Felix5

> ** For Boomers: How to Survive in a Generation-X World
> Got one of these for millennials?

I tried to include information useful to all generations, including
Gen-Xers and Millennials.

Originally Posted by Felix5

> Oh, I don't know why Xers refuse to acknowledge this about their
> own generation, an Xer friend of mine insists that nothing that
> happened during the housing bubble was fraudulent! ...I don't know
> what to say to that.

This is the defining difference between Gen-Xers versus Boomers and
Millennials. It may well be the case that the percentage of criminals
in all three generations is the same, but what defines the Gen-Xers is
their absolute unwillingness to blame other Gen-Xers for anything,
even obvious crimes. The result is that those Gen-Xers who ARE
criminals are free to continue and expand their crimes, with little or
no fear of investigation or retribution.

*** 18-Sep-12 World View -- China declares economic war on Japan, and sends 1,000 boat flotilla

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan bolsters defenses as 1,000 Chinese fishing boats approach
• China declares economic war on Japan
• Chinese Communist Party urges punitive sanctions against Japan
• Quote: 'There won't be a war because it's bad for business!'
• Should we defend Japan against China?

****
**** Japan bolsters defenses as 1,000 Chinese fishing boats approach
****


Chinese cartoonist portrays Samurai warrior crushing Japanese enterprises as he grabs for the Senkaku Islands (China Daily)

The Japanese in Beijing has suspended passport services, and is
bolstering its defenses around the Senkaku/Diayou islands, after media
reports indicate that a flotilla of around 1,000 Chinese fishing boats
was sailing towards them. Hundreds of Japanese businesses and the
country's embassy suspended services in China on Tuesday, expecting
further escalation in violent protests over a territorial dispute
between Asia's two biggest economies. Reuters

****
**** China declares economic war on Japan
****

China is trying to hurt Japan economically, to gain leverage in its
campaign to take control of the Senkaku/Diayou islands. In the 2010
confrontations, China took revenge on Japan by terminating shipments
of rare earth minerals, needed for manufacturing of many of Japan's
electronic products. In the current confrontation, the Beijing
government is encouraging the Chinese people to demonstrate and
protest against Japanese businesses in China. The government urged
protesters not to use violence, but that part of the message is
clearly not getting through. Protesters torched a Panasonic factory
and Toyota dealership, looted and ransacked Japanese department stores
and supermarkets in several cities. China's National Tourism
Administration ordered travel companies last week to cancel tours to
Japan over the weeklong National Day holiday in early October.
AP and Bloomberg

****
**** Chinese Communist Party urges punitive sanctions against Japan
****

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is urging strong punitive sanctions
against Japan, for its "well-orchestrated plan" to take control of the
Senkaku/Diayou islands, according to the CCP's official newspaper:

"The "nationalization" of the Diaoyu Islands by Japan
after "purchasing" them from a "private owner" is ridiculous and
cannot change the fact that they are Chinese territory. ... China
should take strong countermeasures, especially economic sanctions,
to respond to Japan's provocations. Military consideration,
however, should be the last choice.

The United States has frequently used Article XXI Security
Exceptions of the WTO (taken from the earlier General Agreement on
Tariffs and Trade) to impose economic sanctions on other
countries. The security exception clause says a country cannot be
stopped from taking any action it considers necessary to protect
its security interests. That means a country can impose sanctions
on enterprises, financial institutions, organizations and even
other countries' central and local governments. Taking a cue from
the US' practice, China can use the security exception clause to
reduce the export of some important materials to Japan.

China didn't announce any sanctions against the Philippines in
April, but it froze banana imports from that country in response
to Manila's aggressive attitude in the Huangyan Island
dispute. Though the economic countermeasure forced the Philippines
on the back foot, it also harmed the interests of some Chinese
enterprises.

So it is important for China to devise a sanction plan against
Japan that would cause minimum loss to Chinese enterprises.

The US' capability to impose economic sanctions on other countries
is based on its economic strength, huge share in global trade,
financial institutions and global intelligence network. China,
too, has the capability to impose sanctions on other countries now
that it is the second largest economy, has the largest foreign
reserves, and is the largest exporter and second largest importer.

An analysis of Sino-Japanese economic interdependence shows that
Japan's economy will suffer severely if China were to impose
sanctions on it. China's loss would be relatively less. ...

So it's clear that China can deal a heavy blow to the Japanese
economy without hurting itself too much by resorting to sanctions.

Apart from its reliance on China, Japan has been suffering from
other economic ills. First, Japan's massive government debt is
increasing substantially. ... Third, Japan's fiscal deterioration
is likely to continue. There are enough indications that Japan's
economic growth in 2013 will slow down or slip into another
recession. The irreversible trend of long-term economic downturn,
combined with Japan's aging population, will eat into the
country's household savings, and the declining purchasing power of
the Japanese will increase Japan's fiscal debt. ...

But instead of blindly boycotting Japanese goods, China should
work out a comprehensive plan which should include imposition of
sanctions and taking precautionary measures against any Japanese
retaliation. China should also have several rounds of policies
ready to undermine the Japanese economy at the least cost of
Chinese enterprises.

Furthermore, in case Chinese enterprises suffer because of the
sanctions, the Chinese government should be prepared to compensate
them. And once China imposes sanctions on Japan, the government
should ensure that all enterprises in the country, domestic and
foreign, obey the rules."

China Daily

****
**** Quote: 'There won't be a war because it's bad for business!'
****

How many times have people told me that Generational Dynamics is wrong
about some geopolitical thing, saying, "There won't be a war
because it's bad for business, and the business owners on both sides
will make sure that there won't be a war." That whole concept is
silly since, of course, if it were true then there never would be any
wars.

But now you're seeing that in fact "bad for business" does not STOP
war preparations, it PROPELS them. The fact that "business is good"
between Japan and China does not mean there won't be a war; to the
contrary, "business is good" only becomes an additional weapon to be
used in the preliminaries. And as the quote above from China Daily
notes, China has already used economic warfare against the Philippines
of the Scarborough Shoal, some islands that are clearly the
Philippines' sovereign territory. The Chinese aren't saying that a
war would be bad for business. They're saying, let's use economic
warfare, and if that doesn't work, then we'll use military warfare.

The Chinese always talk about how they want "harmonious relations"
with everyone. What they mean by that is, "Relations will be
harmonious as long as you do everything we demand, and give us
everything of yours we want. Otherwise, we'll kill you."

****
**** Should we defend Japan against China?
****

Some web site readers of my previous article had a a heated discussion
over whether we should come to Japan's defense against China, in view
of the horrific atrocities that the Japanese committed during World
War II. Leading the "anti" side of the debate was someone from the
Silent generation who experienced some of those atrocities.

I have two points to make. The first is something I've said before:
The United States has no choice. The U.S. became Policeman of the
World with the Truman Doctrine, put forth by President Harry Truman in 1947. Since then,
we've signed defense treaties with numerous countries, and all of them
would go into total panic if we repudiated our treaty with Japan.

The second is more generational. Once upon a time, the
British and the colonists committed atrocities on one another.
A little later, the North and South committed atrocities on one
another. In WW II, Germany and Italy joined Japan as our
enemies, while Russia was our friend. Since then, new
generations have replaced all of those people. In some cases,
the new generations decided they like us, and in other
cases the new generations decided they hate us. New American
generations are barely aware of the atrocities our enemies
committed, and they're equally unaware of such things as
the firebombing of Dresden or the nuking of Japan.

A generational crisis war transforms a country, gives the country a
new character, and makes it a different country than it was before the
crisis war. World War II transformed America completely, changing it
from a laissez-faire economy to a heavily regulated economy, and from
an isolationist nation to the Policemen of the World. Essentially,
every nation starts from "square one" in the Recovery Era that
follows a crisis war.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Senkaku Islands,
Diaoyu Islands, Truman Doctrine

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*** 19-Sep-12 World View -- U.S. announces end of joint operations with Afghan soldiers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Afghan suicide attack kills 13 in revenge for anti-Islamic movie
• Appearing to panic, U.S. announces end of joint operations with Afghan soldiers
• China's nuclear weapons dilemma
• China discovering billions of dollars in fraud over steel warehousing
• Russia reveals a huge diamond mine in Siberia

****
**** Afghan suicide attack kills 13 in revenge for anti-Islamic movie
****


French soldiers arrive at the scene of Tuesday suicide bombing in Kabul (AP)

A militant group called Hezb-i-Islami (Party of Islam) claimed
responsibility for one of the most deadly insurgent attacks in Kabul,
Afghanistan, this year, after a suicide bomber detonated a car filled
with explosives on a main thoroughfare. Most of the victims were
South Africans, packed into a minivan on their way to work at the
airport. The suicide bomber rammed into the minivan, creating a huge
explosion whose shockwaves were felt in many parts of the city,
sending the minivan flying at least 160 feet from its original
location. ABC News

****
**** Appearing to panic, U.S. announces end of joint operations with Afghan soldiers
****

In a move that strikes at the heart of the strategy for withdrawing
Nato forces from Afghanistan by 2014, the U.S. has announced
that it will no longer conduct joint operations with Afghan
soldiers. These joint operations are an essential component
of the withdrawal strategy, because they're needed to train
the Afghan soldiers to defend themselves after Nato leaves.
Now they're going to be left on their own without having
been properly trained.

The decision may have been made in panic, as none of America's Nato
allies were informed of the decision before it was announced. The
decision was made in reaction to a series of killings of Nato soldiers
by the Afghan partner soldiers they were supposed to be working with
and training. It turns out that many of them had joined the Afghan
army to await an opportunity to kill Americans and other Nato forces,
and then flee back to their Taliban barracks. So far in 2012, 51 Nato
soldiers have been killed in this way, 8 of them over the last
weekend.

The Obama administration had implemented a "surge" strategy,
attempting to emulate President Bush's successful surge strategy
in Iran in 2007. However, as I've written many times in the
last three years, a Generational Dynamics analysis shows significant
generational differences between Iraq and Afghanistan that make
it impossible for the same surge strategy to work.

The fundamental difference is that in Iraq's two previous
generational crisis wars, Iraqis put aside sectarian (Sunni vs Shia)
differences to fight an external enemy. So they had no trouble
cooperating to eject another foreign intruder, al-Qaeda in Iraq.

But Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely
bloody sectarian civil war, with Sunni Pashtuns (Taliban)
fighting against Shia Hazaris. There isn't a snowflake's
chance in hell that the Sunni Taliban are going to agree to
a peace deal with Nato.

In fact, Tuesday's announcement reflects exactly that. The Afghan
army is infiltrated with Sunni Taliban soldiers who are committed to
jihad against Nato and America, as well as against the Shia Hazaris
with whom they're supposed to be uniting.

The Nato leadership hopes that once the furor over the American
anti-Muslim film dies down, then Nato can resume joint patrols with
the Afghans. But almost all of those 51 incidents this year occurred
long before that furor began, and so the Nato plan for smooth
withdrawal from Afghanistan remains wishful thinking. The real
danger, and quite a realistic one, is the complete collapse of the
Afghan army, such as what happened when the Americans withdrew from
Vietnam in 1974. Guardian (London) and Khaleej Times (Dubai)

****
**** China's nuclear weapons dilemma
****

According to an assessment of China's nuclear weapons strategy,
China has a serious dilemma:

• They don't want to be the first to use nuclear weapons
  
• Therefore a "defensive" first strike would have to be with
  conventional missiles, and these missiles have to be ready to strike
  first and hard.
  
• But the same Chinese military bases are used for both conventional
  weapons and nuclear weapons
  
• Therefore, if they launch conventional weapons, their enemy (the
  U.S.) won't be able to tell the difference, and will assume that
  they're nuclear weapons, and will respond with nuclear weapons.
  
• Therefore, "Escalation to nuclear war could become accelerated and
  unavoidable."

PhysOrg

****
**** China discovering billions of dollars in fraud over steel warehousing
****

There's just no end to the imagination of financial criminals in
today's world culture of fraud and extortion, and a new kind of fraud
has been revealed in China. Many firms had borrowed billions of
dollars from banks, and pledged warehouses containing stacks of stored
steel as collateral. Now many of those firms are defaulting, and the
banks are discovering that the warehouses are ghosts -- they either
don't exist, or they're empty. Many firms pledged the same warehouses
as collateral for multiple loans. According to an analyst in
Shanghai, "What we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.
The situation will get worse as poor demand, slumping prices and tight
credit from banks create a domino effect on the industry." Reuters and ZeroHedge

****
**** Russia reveals a huge diamond mine in Siberia
****

World diamond markets may soon become chaotic with sharply falling
prices, after Russia revealed a huge diamond mine in Siberia, with
enough diamonds to supply global markets for another 3,000 years. The
diamond mine was actually discovered in 1971, but it was kept secret
because the Russians did not want to risk losing money from their own
lucrative diamond sales. CS Monitor

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Hezb-i-Islami, Party of Islam,
Iraq, surge strategy, Pashtuns, Hazaris,
China, nuclear strategy, Russia

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*** 20-Sep-12 World View -- France closes embassies after magazine publishes Mohammed satire

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France closes embassies after magazine publishes Mohammed satire
• Blasphemy laws in the UK and Ireland
• Blasphemy laws in Pakistan
• Identity Group Expansion

****
**** France closes embassies after magazine publishes Mohammed satire
****


The publisher of Charlie Hebdo, Charb, holds up the new issue

France's satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo on Wednesday published a
series of magazine with a series of cartoons, some of which depict
Muhammad naked or in demeaning or pornographic poses. France's
Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said that the principle of freedom of
expression "must not be infringed," and added: "Is it pertinent,
intelligent, in this context to pour oil on the fire? The answer is
no."

In view of the recent attacks on American embassies over the film
"Innocence of Muslims," France reacted by ordering its embassies,
cultural centers, schools and other official sites to close on Friday
— the Muslim holy day — in 20 countries. It also immediately shut down
its embassy and the French school in Tunisia, the site of deadly
protests at the U.S. Embassy last week. The French Foreign Ministry
issued a travel warning urging French citizens in the Muslim world to
exercise "the greatest vigilance," avoiding public gatherings and
"sensitive buildings." AP

I really have to laugh at Fabius' posturing about not infringing the
principle of freedom of expression. Last year, France's parliament
passed an insane law making it a
CRIME to claim that the war between Turkey and Armenia a century ago
was not a genocide. And in some European countries, including France,
you can go to jail if you deny the Holocaust.

Freedom of expression in France is only for those who do not insult
the Armenians or the Israelis. The French don't like the Turks, so
it's OK to jail someone who sides with the Turks.

It's worthwhile adding that you can be a "denier" or all sorts of
historical events without going to jail. You can deny that the French
Revolution ever happened, or that the Christian Crusades happened or
that the Protestant Revolution happened, without anyone sending you to
jail. This shows how arbitrary laws banning freedom of expression can
be.

****
**** Blasphemy laws in the UK and Ireland
****

Blasphemy was a common law offence under Irish law when the 1937
Constitution explicitly made it an offence punishable by law, though
it was seldom enforced. Several attempts to repeal the law have
failed, and in 2009, a new Defamation Bill contained a claus saying,
"A person who publishes or utters blasphemous matter shall be guilty
of an offence and shall be liable upon conviction on indictment to a
fine not exceeding 100,000 euros."

"Blasphemous matter" is defined as matter "that is grossly abusive or
insulting in relation to matters held sacred by any religion, thereby
causing outrage among a substantial number of the adherents of that
religion; and he or she intends, by the publication of the matter
concerned, to cause such outrage."

Under this definition, I would assume that the film "Innocence of
Muslims" would be considered a violation of Ireland's blasphemy laws.
However, prosecution of blasphemy in Ireland effectively ceased when
the Church of Ireland was disestablished in 1869, though a man was
prosecuted for burning of a Bible in 1885.

In Britain, prior to the 1900s, several people were flogged or
imprisoned after being convicted of blasphemy. The last person in
Britain to be sent to prison for blasphemy was John Gott, who was
convicted for publishing pamphlets satirizing the Bible, in which he
compared Jesus to a circus clown.
Michael Nugent

****
**** Blasphemy laws in Pakistan
****

This week, a businessman in Hyderabad, Pakistan, Haji Nasrullah Khan,
has fled for his life and is in hiding, after being accused by his
neighbors of blasphemy. Protesters were demanding that all businesses
close their shops in protest of the movie "Innocence of Muslims," and
Nasrullah refused. Scores of outraged religious parties activists and
seminary students tried to attack Nasrullah’s house, leading to a
clash. After that, they all went to a nearby mosque and claimed to
have witnessed Nasrullah committing blasphemy. They demanded that he
be arrested. Dawn

This is the kind of mass action that's of interest to Generational
Dynamics. There have been blasphemy laws in Pakistan, Ireland, and
Britain, but few people have been prosecuted in Ireland and Britain,
and there have been no mass demands to convict someone of blasphemy as
far as I know in more than the last century.

In Pakistan, in 1927, the British colonial rules of the Indian
sub-continent made it a criminal offence to commit “deliberate and
malicious acts intended to outrage religious feelings of any class by
insulting its religious belief”. The law did not discriminate between
religions.

As in the case of the UK and Ireland, the blasphemy law was
rarely enforced. In the 58 years between 1927 and 1985, only
ten blasphemy cases were heard in a court under this law.

But things changed dramatically since the 1980s, and 4,000 blasphemy
cases have been heard since 1985.

This enormous change would correspond to the time of the rise of the
Pakistan generation corresponding to America's Generation-X. From the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, this generational change is
extremely significant.

I've been trying to think of a corresponding mass change in attitudes
in America in the 1980s that's similar to Pakistan's mass change in
Pakistan regarding blasphemy laws, and the obvious one is feminism.
In the 1960s, women's lib was a positive political force that
addressed real problems. But in the 1980s feminism became extremely
destructive. In divorce courts, charges of family violence exploded
against fathers, with anecdotal evidence indicating that over 95% of
them were phony, manufactured charges -- just like most of the 4,000
charges of blasphemy in Pakistan since 1985.

Possibly the height of feminist rampage was the "Duke Lacrosse rape
case." In 2006, a black woman named Crystal Gail Mangum, alias
Janette Rivers, claimed that several members of the Duke College
lacrosse team had raped her. District attorney Mike Nifong kept
pursuing criminal charges against the team, for months after he knew
for a fact that the alleged attack had never occurred.
(See "Collapse of Duke rape case represents cultural change"
) This is exactly like blasphemy cases in
Pakistan, which are pursued even when it's known that accusations are
false. It's worth pointing out that the New York Times editorially
joined Nifong in the false allegations, even when it was known that
they were false.

There is little difference between a jihadist who makes false claims
of blasphemy on the one hand, and the New York Times and Mike Nifong
on the other hand. In all three cases, they pursued charges that they
knew were false, and jumped in the sewer from where they could throw
feces at anyone who disagreed with them. Express Tribune (Islamabad)

****
**** Identity Group Expansion
****

In his book <i>Clash of Civilizations,</i> Samuel P. Huntington,
described how small regional wars expand into much larger wars.
Belligerents in the war identify themselves as part of larger rather
than smaller groups -- e.g., Muslims instead of Bosnians, or
Christians instead of Croatians -- in order to rally other nations in
similar identity groups to their side. This process of "Identity
Group Expansion" unites belligerents on both sides, and makes a small
war into a larger war. In the modern era, al-Qaeda linked jihadists
have very effectively used blasphemy laws as a tool to effect Identity
Group Expansion.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these are examples of
mass phenomena that are typical of generational hatreds. As I
explained in "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust"
, this is also the same behavior
that led to the 1930s Holocaust. This kind of mass generational
hatred only leads to one place: catastrophe.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Charlie Hebdo,
Laurent Fabius, Innocence of Muslims, Turkey,
Armenia, Holocaust, Britain, Ireland,
blasphemy laws, Pakistan, Haji Nasrullah Khan,
feminism, Mike Nifong, Duke lacrosse team,
Crystal Gail Mangum, Janette Rivers,
Clash of Civilizations, Samuel P Huntington,

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*** 21-Sep-12 World View -- Russia's expulsion of USAID signals end of 'Reset' policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Spain's Catalonia region demands economic independence from Spain
• Libya's account of killing of U.S. ambassador contradicts American account
• Anti-American protests spread across cities in Pakistan
• Anti-American protests quieting as Muslims debate Islam versus tolerance
• Germany joins France in embassy closings, as new Mohammed cartoons are planned
• Expulsion of USAID signals a more corrupt Putin and more corrupt Russia

****
**** Spain's Catalonia region demands economic independence from Spain
****


Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (L) shakes hands with Catalonia's President Artur Mas, prior to their meeting on Thursday. Reports indicate that the meeting didn't go well. (Reuters)

Memories of 1936, when Generalissimo Francisco Franco seized power in
Spain and vowed to crush Catalan nationalists as "vultures," are being
revived in Catalonia today, with a new nationalist movement demanding
economic independence from Spain. Things are moving very
quickly now, with a parliamentary debate scheduled for
next week on the future of Catalonia.

Catalonia's President Artur Mas met with Spain's Prime Minister
Mariano Rajoy in Madrid on Thursday, but the talks apparently went
badly. According to Mas:

"The prime minister told me there is no room to
negotiate a fiscal pact with Catalonia and that his answer will be
'no' in the coming weeks and months.

If the negative answer to the fiscal pact is so obvious, then we
will have to take decisions in the next days. All options are
open."

This political chaos comes at a time when Spain's economy is going
down the drain, and Rajoy will be forced to ask the EU for a bailout.
Telegraph (London) and Reuters

****
**** Libya's account of killing of U.S. ambassador contradicts American account
****

Witnesses of last week's deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in
Benghazi Libya have told CBS News that the alleged anti-American
protest that U.S. officials say morphed into the assault never
actually took place. These statements differ sharply with statements
by American officials to the effect that the attack that it originally
started as a spontaneous anti-American protest against the film
"Innocence of Muslims" that many Muslims consider to be blasphemous.
White House press secretary Jay Carney said:

"This is a fairly volatile situation, and it is in
response not to U.S. policy, not to, obviously, the
administration, not to the American people. It is in response to a
video – a film – that we have judged to be reprehensive and
disgusting. That in no way justifies any violent reaction to
it. But this is not a case of protests directed at the United
States, writ large, or at U.S. policy. This is in response to a
video that is offensive and – to Muslims."

However, witnesses' statement indicate that the actual assault was
perpetrated by militias and possible al-Qaeda elements with assault
weapons, rather than as a spontaneous outgrowth of a protest.
However, even though the assault took place on 9/11, it's not known to
what extent the assault was pre-planned. The FBI is supposed to
investigate, but FBI investigators have not yet gone to the destroyed
consulate. CBS News and Mediaite

****
**** Anti-American protests spread across cities in Pakistan
****

Some 5,000 protesters protested in front of the U.S. embassy
in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, and clashed with people.
At least 50 people were injured as police fired tear gas
and live rounds into the crowds. According to one
student who was protesting:

"Our policemen are not any better than the Americans
because they are trying to stop us. They are in the same league as
them, they are heretics like them.

They should allow us to demolish the American embassy because they
have blasphemed against our holy Prophet. The police are also
becoming an accomplice of blasphemers."

Large protests also occurred in other cities, including Lahore and
Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir, where
more than 200 protesters set fire to an effigy of Barack Obama.

The US is spending $70,000 to buy time on Pakistan television stations
for public relations ads in a bid to stem further protests. Al-Jazeera

****
**** Anti-American protests quieting as Muslims debate Islam versus tolerance
****

While few Muslims would go so far as to say that blasphemy against the
prophet Mohammed is accepted, the widespread fury at the movie
"Innocence of Muslims" is giving way to a debate over free speech in
the Muslim world. In fact, most of the Arab world has not seen major
protests for much of this week. The streets around the U.S. Embassy
in Cairo, where clashes raged for days, were relatively quiet
Thursday. Widespread fury was expressed in countries from Indonesia
to Morocco, but nowhere did Muslims take to the streets en masse to
protest the film. However, Friday is the weekly Islamic day of
prayer, and the largest protests typically follow midday prayers, as
worshippers pour out of mosques into the street. AP

****
**** Germany joins France in embassy closings, as new Mohammed cartoons are planned
****

Both France and Germany have announced that they will close many of
their embassies on Friday in anticipation of large protests, following
the publication of cartoons mocking the prophet Mohammed in a French
satire magazine. On Thursday, German satire magazine Titanic
announced that it would also publish its own Muhammad issue later this
month, which could provoke further unrest. Spiegel

****
**** Expulsion of USAID signals a more corrupt Putin and more corrupt Russia
****

America's "reset" with Russia has apparently ended, in view of the
announced immediate expulsion US Agency for International Development
(USAID). Russia’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement supported by
president Vladimir Putin, accused USAID of meddling in Russia’s
internal affairs and "attempting to influence the outcome of elections
by distributing aid grants." The U.S. is saying that the
decision came as a surprise, but Russian officials say
that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov informed Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton of the decision on June 29.

USAID has been active in Russia since 1992, and has distributed some
$2.7 billion, helping human-rights groups in documenting election
fraud and human rights abuses, supporting AIDS education, treatment of
tuberculosis and improvement of infrastructure programs. But the
charge of "meddling" is apparently linked to the aid money given to
the election monitoring group Golos. Golos helped expose massive vote
rigging by the Putin's organization during parliamentary elections
last December. Putin's party actually lost the election, but the
electoral fraud gave him a majority in the Duma. The exposed fraud
triggered massive anti-Putin pro-democracy demonstrations in Moscow
that Putin sees as an international conspiracy, led by the US State
Department. Moscow Times and Jamestown

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Catalonia, Mariano Rajoy, Artur Mas,
Libya, Benghazi, Pakistan, Islamabad, Lahore, Germany,
France, Russia, USAID, Vladimir Putin

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*** 22-Sep-12 World View -- Capital flight is leading to the disintegration of the eurozone

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Libya citizens storm Benghazi Islamist militia hq in backlash against Consulate attack
• Bailout talks for Greece collapse once again
• Capital flight is leading to the disintegration of the eurozone
• Fifteen killed in violent anti-American protests across Pakistan

****
**** Libya citizens storm Benghazi Islamist militia hq in backlash against Consulate attack
****


Libyan civilians watch the Ansar al-Sharia Brigades compound burn down. (AP)

Tens of thousands of Libyan citizens in Benghazi, chanting "No, no, to
militias" and "The ambassador was Libya’s friend," marched in a rally
against Ansar al-Sharia, the Islamist militia believed to be
responsible for the September 11 attack on the U.S. Consulate that
killed American ambassador Chris Stevens. Hundreds of protesters
stormed the compound of the extremist group, evicting militiamen and
setting fire to their building. Last year, Gaddafi's regime warned
that if he were gone, then the militias in the Benghazi area would
declare an Islamic Emirate and ally itself with al-Qaeda. But now,
the residents are lashing out against Ansar al-Sharia, the main
Islamic extremist group in the city. AP

****
**** Bailout talks for Greece collapse once again
****

In a familiar scene that we've seen many times before, the latest
talks between Greece and the leaders of the EU "troika" of
organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the
European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
-- are leaving Athens, after Greek officials failed to reach an
agreement with the troika on the austerity measures that will have to
be implemented in return for another bailout. The official statement
is that the talks are going to take a "brief pause" for a few days.
Since we've seen this so many times before, we know exactly what's
coming: Greece will commit to a set of austerity measures. The troika
will authorize the bailout, kicking the can down the road. The
austerity measures that Greece committed to will not be implemented.
Then, when it's time for another bailout decision, the scenario will
be repeated. Kathimerini and Bloomberg

****
**** Capital flight is leading to the disintegration of the eurozone
****

In the 12 months ending July 31, a total of 326 billion euros were
pulled from banks in the "troubled" nations -- Spain, Portugal,
Ireland and Greece. This coincides with a roughly similar increase in
deposits into the banks of the seven "core" countries, including
Germany and France. That’s leading to a fragmentation of credit and a
two-tiered banking system, that's becoming increasingly unsustainable.
According to one analyst,

"Capital flight is leading to the disintegration of
the euro zone and divergence between the periphery and the core.
Companies pay 1 to 2 percentage points more to borrow in the
periphery. You can’t get growth to resume with such
divergence."

Bloomberg

****
**** Fifteen killed in violent anti-American protests across Pakistan
****


Protesters in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad (AP)

At least 15 people were killed and more than 200 wounded in
anti-American protests across Pakistan, from Karachi to Lahore to
Islamabad to Peshawar. The protests were made worse by what was
apparently a very dumb move by Pakistan's government. On Thursday,
the government said that Friday would be "Love the Prophet Day"
holiday in reaction to the "Innocence of Muslims" film. Thus, many
millions of people had Friday off, leaving them free to take part in
the protests. Dawn and Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Benghazi, Chris Stevens,
Ansar al-Sharia, Greece, troika, EC, ECB, IMF,
Spain, Portual, Ireland, Greece,
Pakistan, Love the Prophet Day

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*** 23-Sep-12 World View -- Religious conflict on the rise around the world

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Restrictions on religion, and religious conflicts, on the rise globally
• Why has Wall Street not been held accountable for financial crisis crimes?

****
**** Restrictions on religion, and religious conflicts, on the rise globally
****


Campaign poster by Swiss People's party advocating the ban on minarets - From 2009

Restrictions on the practice of religion, as well as religious
conflicts, have been increasing in countries around the world,
according to research from 2007 to 2010 by the Pew Research Center.
Three of the examples mentioned by the report are:

• November 2009 constitutional referendum in Switzerland banned
  the construction of minarets on mosques in the country.
  
• In Indonesia, more than two dozen churches were forced to close
  due to pressure from Islamist extremists or, in some instances, local
  officials.
  
• In Nigeria, violence between Christian and Muslim communities,
  including a series of deadly attacks, escalated throughout the
  period.

The number of countries with very high government restrictions
on religion increased from 10 to 18 during the period.
These include: Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, Egypt, Vietnam,
Syria, Russia and Indonesia.

The number of countries experiencing social hostilities -- mob or
sectarian violence, harassment over attire for religious reasons and
other religion-related intimidation or abuse -- also increased.
Countries where social hostilities were high include: Pakistan, India,
Israel, Nigeria, Yemen, Palestinian territories, Egypt, Russia, Saudi
Arabia and Indonesia.

The level of restrictions and hostility also rose in the United
States, from a low to a moderate level. These incidents typically
occurred at the local level, including restrictions on wearing certain
religious attire or symbols, including beards, or difficulties in
obtaining zoning permits to build churches or mosques or religious
schools. Religion-related terrorist attacks spiked in the U.S. in
2009, including the Fort Hood attack by U.S. Army Major Nidal Hasan,
and the attempted airplane bombing by the Nigerian underwear bomber.

Worldwide, the number of countries where religious groups were
harassed were: Christians - 139, Muslims - 121, Jews - 85, Hindus -
30, Buddhists - 21.

This is exactly what is predicted by Generational Dynamics theory
during a generational Crisis era. In a generational Awakening era,
such as America in the 1960s and continuing for several decades
thereafter, society places the highest priority on individual rights,
including freedom of religion. But as a society enters a generational
Crisis era, levels of nationalism and xenophobia increase sharply
along ethnic, religious and geographic lines. Individual rights
become subordinated to the concern for the survival of the nation and
its way of life, and religious harassment becomes a method for
"identity group expansion," which I discussed at length
three days ago. This research has validated
the generational theory prediction, and suggests how increased
conflict between religions might lead to a regional war somewhere that
could spiral out of control through identity group expansion.
Pew Research Center

****
**** Why has Wall Street not been held accountable for financial crisis crimes?
****

A spotlight report by Al-Jazeera tells a story we've heard
before, though almost never from the mainstream media -- that
the banksters who committed the crimes that led to financial
crisis are not being investigated and prosecuted. One person
interviewed, Chris Swecker, formerly of the FBI, warned
banks of an epidemic of mortgage fraud as early as 2004.
However, his warnings were ignored:

"That's where we start to talk about criminal intent
and fraud is knowing full well that there was fraud going on and
just turning your back on it and saying, alright, we're going to
package this stuff up anyway and we're going to sell it
anyway."

There is absolute certainty by this time that in 2004, the
banksters were knowingly creating tens of trillions of
dollars in fraudulent synthetic mortgage-backed securities
and selling them to gullible investors, resulting in the
global financial crisis that is far from over.

However, the Obama administration Justice Department adamantly refuses
to investigate the banksters who committed these crimes. According to
the report, they're refusing because the bankster financial
institutions provide huge amounts of money in campaign contributions
to the Democrats. However, the report points out that they contribute
even more to the Republicans, so a Romney victory in November will not
change anything. Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pew Research, religion, Switzerland,
Indonesia, Wall Street, Chris Swecker

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*** 24-Sep-12 World View -- Militant attacks in Sinai may force Egypt-Israel peace treaty to reopen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan Minister puts out $100,000 contract on filmmaker
• Japanese companies begin resuming operations in China
• Militant attacks in Sinai may force Egypt-Israel peace treaty to reopen
• Germany and France commemorate de Gaulle's speech 50 years ago

****
**** Pakistan Minister puts out $100,000 contract on filmmaker
****


Railway Minister Ghulam Ahmed Bilour on Saturday

Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, the man considered responsible
for the movie "Innocence of Muslims," which triggered numerous
anti-American protests by Muslims in several countries,
has gone into hiding with his family. Pakistan's
Railways Minister Ghulam Ahmed Bilour on Saturday offered
a $100,000 bounty to anyone who could kill Nakoula.
Bilour said he knew that he was committing a crime by
instigating people for murder, but said that he was ready to be a
criminal for this cause:

"I request all the rich people to bring out all their
money so that the killer can be loaded with dollars and gold. ...

If there is a case lodged against me in the international court or
in this country’s court, I will ask people to hand me over to
them. ... I want to show these countries that we will not tolerate
any such things."

Bildour also requested help from the Taliban and al-Qaeda, a statement
that drew furious responses from Pakistan's government, including the
president and prime minister. Senator Zahid Khan, a spokesman for the
Awami National Party, which is Bildour's political party, said:

"We believe in nonviolence. How could we make such
announcements? Our party has been fighting against militancy and
extremism for years. How could we invite Taliban and al Qaeda to
kill someone? Taliban and al Qaeda are our enemies who have
killed our loved ones. We have lots of concerns over the
statement of our colleague."

There have been some reports that Bildour's Railway Ministry is in
trouble because he can't keep the trains running on time. Daily Times (Lahore) and CNN

****
**** Japanese companies begin resuming operations in China
****

Japan’s three biggest carmakers -- Toyota, Nissan Motor Co. and Honda
-- had their dealerships and factories in China trashed by Chinese
mobs last week, over the dispute between Japan and China over the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. The same was true of Japan's electronics
firms, including Canon Inc. and Panasonic Corp. The riots and
violence reached a peak on Tuesday, which was the 81st anniversary of
Japan's 1931 invasion of Manchuria. By Friday, the riots and
demonstrations had settled down, and Japanese firms have been resuming
operations.

Although both governments have attempted to de-escalate the situation,
tensions have been growing on both sides, and there are fears that a
mistake or miscalculation could trigger a military clash. A mistake
did occur last week: No sooner had China lifted its annual fishing
moratorium on fishing in the East China Sea than an erroneous report
ostentatiously announced 1,000 small fishing boats were headed to the
islands. According to a Jamestown analysis:

"[A recent Chinese commentary] made it clear that
China today is not the China that a recently industrialized Japan
easily defeated in 1894 when the territory under contest was
Korea. In fact, China today is not the China of 2005 or 2010, when
relations between the two countries also soured. ... At some
point, Beijing may rule that Japan has crossed a line and decide
to retaliate. Tokyo’s gambling, for its own domestic agenda, is
all the more dangerous because of the opacity that characterizes
government operations in China as well as the internal tensions
generated by factionalism within the CCP ahead of a power
transition. These factors make it very difficult for outside
observers to know with certainty what will trigger what response
from Beijing. This is especially true if Beijing senses that
domestic dissatisfaction with the economy is threatening its
legitimacy, which could then make an external distraction—and
nothing serves that purpose better than Japan—all the more
appealing. This also makes it possible for hardline elements
within the CCP and the PLA to exploit tensions to shape the
composition of the future Politburo ahead of the transition later
this year."

Though China's politicians may try to de-escalate the tensions, the
Chinese people have been growing increasingly nationalistic and
xenophobic every year in the last decade, and at some point the people
will force the government to take harsher action, as the analysis
indicates.

Several web site readers have asked my why China and Japan are
fighting over two insignificant, uninhabitable rocks in the middle of
the East China Sea. The reason is because the owner of the islands
gets with them control over a 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
around the islands, and it's believed that the region around the
islands contains trillions of dollars in oil and gas deposits. The
same is true of the Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China
Sea, which is why China is using its vast military power to confiscate
islands that have historically belonged to other countries. Bloomberg and Jamestown

****
**** Militant attacks in Sinai may force Egypt-Israel peace treaty to reopen
****

Terrorists in the Sinai, along the border between Israel and Egypt,
fired on Israeli soldiers on Friday, killing one. The increase in
attacks from Sinai militants is forcing reconsideration of the 1979
Egypt-Israeli peace treaty, which restricts the number of soldiers and
tanks that Egypt is permitted to send to the Sinai. There wasn't a
problem when Hosni Mubarak was president, since he kept the Sinai
under iron control, but since he was deposed, the Sinai has become
ungovernable, and the Bedouin tribes have been infiltrated with
al-Qaeda militants. The Egyptians would like to increase
the number of soldiers and military equipment in the Sinai,
but they're restricted by the peace treaty. On Sunday,
Israeli officials said that they would resist any attempts
to reconsider the terms of the peace treaty.
Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman said on Sunday:

"The Egyptians shouldn't try to delude themselves or
delude others, and they should not rely on this demand. The
problem in Sinai is not the size of the forces, it is their
readiness to fight, to put pressure and to carry out the job as is
needed."

However, the Israelis may be forced to change their minds because of
the increase in militant attacks. Egyptian Foreign Affairs Council
member Ahmed Abdel Halim said Sunday:

"We have informed Israel that we were sending more
troops than allowed in the Camp David Accords, so we could
conclude all the military operations in Sinai. This is so that
Israel stays calm; we will not act against it."

AP and Ynet

****
**** Germany and France commemorate de Gaulle's speech 50 years ago
****


Charles de Gaulle in Germany, 1962

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's president François
Hollande attended a ceremony in Ludwigsburg Germany on Saturday,
commemorating the 50'th anniversary of the September 21, 1962, speech
by Charles leader Charles de Gaulle. The speech was extremely
passionate, and marked a turning point in the relations between the
two bitter World War II enemies. Speaking in German, de Gaulle said,

"I congratulate you, also, for being young Germans,
which means you are children of a great people. That's right, a
great people! Which has also made some great mistakes in the
course of its history."

A few months later, in January 1963, de Gaulle and Chancellor Konrad
Adenauer signed the Elysée Treaty or Treaty of Friendship. Deutsche Welle and
German History Center


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Nakoula Basseley Nakoula,
Innocence of Muslims, Ghulam Ahmed Bilour, Zahid Khan,
China, Japan, Toyota, Nissan, Honda,
Canon, Panasonic, Senkaku, Diayou,
Sinai, Israel, Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Avigdor Lieberman,
Ahmed Abdel Halim, Germany, France, Charles de Gaulle,
Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande

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*** 25-Sep-12 World View -- Catalonia will vote for independence from Spain on Thursday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France and Germany clash sharply over debt crisis solution
• New U.N. 'peace envoy' to Syria dithers, describing a grim situation
• Catalonia will vote for independence from Spain on Thursday

****
**** France and Germany clash sharply over debt crisis solution
****


Merkel and Hollande

When France's President was Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela
Merkel could count on being able to reach agreement with him over how
to proceed on the euro debt crisis. Like Merkel, Sarkozy was a fiscal
conservative, but France's new president is François Hollande, who is
a Socialist and anything but a fiscal conservative. And so while the
two were in Ludwigsburg, Germany, on Saturday, celebrating the 50th
anniversary of Germany-France unity, they were sharply disagreeing on
fiscal matters. The two major areas of disagreement are:

• Hollande advocates giving Greece all the bailout money it
  needs, and also granting the requested two-year postponement on
  fulfilling austerity commitments; Merkel does not.
  
• Hollande advocates quick implementation of the proposed euro zone
  "banking union," a centralized regulator for all the 6,000 banks in
  the 17 euro countries. The European Central Bank (ECB) would have
  supervisory powers over the banks, and there would be an area wide
  deposit insurance system. Merkel also supports a banking union, but
  wants to move much more slowly, and says that quality is more
  important than speed.

The irony, of course, is that even though Merkel and Sarkozy could
agree on what to do, their plans have accomplished nothing, and the
situation is much worse than it was two years ago. That's because, as
I've been saying for two years, NO SOLUTION EXISTS. So now we'll go
through a period where France and Germany will disagree over
everything and blame each other, but the final outcome will be no
different. Bloomberg

****
**** New U.N. 'peace envoy' to Syria dithers, describing a grim situation
****

Lakhdar Brahimi, who recently became the new United Nations
"peace envoy" to Syria, replacing Kofi Annan, spoke to the
United Nations Security Council on Monday and provided a very
grim assessment:

"I think there is no disagreement that the situation
is extremely bad and getting worse. I refuse to believe that
reasonable people do not see that you cannot go backward; you
cannot go back to the Syria of the past. I think I told everybody
in Damascus and elsewhere that reform is not enough. What is
needed is change."

Brahimi was referring to the almost unprecendent situation
where Russia and China have repeatedly vetoed one resolution
after another.

"If I do not represent the entire council, I am
nothing. I need to be seen to represent a united council and a
united League of Arab States, and I think the Security Council
understands that perfectly well."

Brahimi is just running around the world talking to everyone, with no
hope of progress. Kofi Annan and his "six-point plan" were worse than
useless, because they provided cover for Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad to continue his massacres of Syria's women and children. Now
Brahimi will replace Annan in that role. AP

****
**** Catalonia will vote for independence from Spain on Thursday
****


Barcelona celebrates Catalan National Day (September 11)

Some people are calling this a confrontation that harks back to 1936,
when Generalissimo Francisco Franco seized power in Spain, launching
the brutal Spanish civil war. On Thursday, the parliament of
Catalonia will vote on whether to declare independence from Spain.
Now the Spanish Military Association is threatening to charge with
high treason anyone who is participating in this cause:

"If this plan is actuated, let there be no doubt that
those who have permitted this, or participated or assisted in
reaching this threat of fracture of Spain, either by commission or
omission or through their constitutional positions, shall be
accountable to the fullest extent possible of the serious charge
of treason before the courts of military
jurisdiction."

Spanish Military Association (translation) and An Phoblact (Dublin)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Germany, Nicolas Sarkozy,
Angela Merkel, François Hollande, bank union, Greece,
Lakhdar Brahimi, Syria, Kofi Annan, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, China, Spain, Catalonia, Francisco Franco,
Spanish Military Association

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*** 26-Sep-12 World View -- China says 'Fascist' Japan must 'abandon illusions' about disputed islands

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan and Taiwan have military confrontation with water cannons
• China says 'Fascist' Japan must 'abandon illusions' about Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
• China launches first aircraft carrier into formal service
• Media gushes over home prices, triggering great hilarity

****
**** Japan and Taiwan have military confrontation with water cannons
****


A Japanese Coast Guard ship (center) sprays water at a Taiwanese fishing
boat (bottom), as Taiwan's vessel (top) sprays water. (Reuters)

With China and Japan close to a military confrontation over the
Senkaku / Diaoyu islands, Taiwan decided to stake its own claim.
Taiwan sent 40 fishing boats and eight Coast Guard vessels from
Taiwan to the disputed islands, to establish the right to
fish in the territorial waters. The Japanese Coast Guard
fired water cannons on the fishing boats, in order to force them
to leave, and Taiwanese Coast Guard vessels returned fire with
their own water cannons. The Taiwanese boats left after
a few hours.

This skirmish was the most dangerous so far, since water cannons
are far from harmless. Taiwan's third party role in the Senkaku
dispute is an interesting development, because Taiwan
does not want to be invaded by China, which means that Taiwan
and Japan are natural allies. Thus, we can imagine two
possible scenarios:

• One possible scenario is that Taiwan and Japan will come to a
  deal and make a unified stand against China, with the support of the
  United States.
  
• Another possible scenario is that Taiwan will join China in
  opposing Japan for this purpose of controlling the Senkaku islands,
  provided that China first promises not to take advantage of the
  situation to invade Taiwan. This situation would pose an issue for
  the U.S. since U.S. has defense treaties with both Taiwan and
  Japan.

VOA

****
**** China says 'Fascist' Japan must 'abandon illusions' about Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
****

As the level of anger between China and Japan over control of the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea continues to escalate,
Japanese and Chinese officials held a meeting in Beijing with the
"hope" of coming to some agreement, say, to share the oil and gas
deposits surrounding the island. However, China's Foreign Ministry
issued a very harsh statement following the meeting:

"On September 25, consultations on the issue of Diaoyu
Dao Islands were held by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang
Zhijun and Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Chikao Kawai in Beijing,
during which the two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of
views.

Zhang Zhijun pointed out that Diaoyu Dao and its affiliated
islands have been China's sacred territory since ancient times, as
historical and legal evidences have shown. The Japanese side,
however, has disregarded the repeated and stern representations
made by the Chinese side, denied the important understanding and
consensus reached between the older generation of leaders of the
two countries, and openly took the illegal actions of
"nationalizing" Diaoyu Dao in defiance of historical and legal
evidences. These acts constitute a gross violation of China's
territory. They are highly offensive to the 1.3 billion Chinese
people, and gravely trample on historical facts and international
law. It is an outright denial of the outcomes of the victory of
the World Anti-Fascist War and poses a grave challenge to the
post-war international order. Historical verdict can never be
overturned; consensus must not be rejected; and flouting people's
aspiration will not be tolerated. The Chinese side will absolutely
not tolerate any unilateral action taken by the Japanese side that
infringes on China's territorial sovereignty. The Japanese side
must abandon any illusion, face up to its erroneous actions and
correct them with credible steps. It should recommit itself to the
consensus and understanding reached between the leaders of the two
countries and meet China half way so as to bring China-Japan
relations back onto the right track of sound and stable growth at
an early date."

As time goes on, the following becomes increasingly clear:

• As the generations of survivors of China's last
  generational crisis war, Mao's Communist Revolution, disappear
  once and for all, younger generations are becoming increasingly
  nationalistic and belligerent, not only toward Japan, but
  toward the West in general, and are preparing for war.
  
• China will go to war with the Japanese over the Senkaku
  islands.
  
• The Chinese are furious that Japan defeated them in the
  conquest of Korea in 1894.
  
• The Chinese are furious about Japan's 1931 invasion of
  Manchuria.
  
• The Chinese are furious about Japan's 1937 Nanking massacre.
  (From 2007: "Chinese commemorate the 1937 Massacre at Nanking (Nanjing),"
  )
  
• The Chinese are furious that the Japanese used Chinese
  "comfort women" during World War II.
  
• The Chinese would not be satisfied if Japan simply concedes the
  Senkaku islands to China. I believe that the young nationalistic
  Chinese generations want full military revenge against the
  Japanese, and are planning an invasion of Japan.

China's Foreign Ministry

****
**** China launches first aircraft carrier into formal service
****

China sent its first aircraft carrier into formal service on Tuesday
in a show of force. The aircraft carrier is refitted from a ship
bought from Ukraine, and will have a limited role, mostly for training
and testing, until the planned launch of China's first domestically
built carriers after 2015. Reuters

****
**** Media gushes over home prices, triggering great hilarity
****


Home prices since 1987 (Case-Shiller/S&P)

On Tuesday morning, S&P released the July Case-Shiller home
price report, showing a 1.6% increase, compared to the previous
month.

The first story I saw was the CNN story:

"Home prices at 9-year high
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney September 25, 2012: 9:08 AM ET

Home prices are back to 2003 levels in the latest sign of an
improved housing market.

In another sign of a turnaround in the long-battered real estate
market, average home prices returned to the best level in nine
years in July."

Unfortunately, this is typical of what passes for financial journalism
these days. Chris Isidore is apparently supposed to be a financial
reporter, but he or she apparently doesn't even know that there was a
real estate bubble that peaked in 2007, as you can easily see from the
graph. Or maybe he or she doesn't know how to read a graph. Or maybe
he or she just wanted to help out President Obama in his reelection
bid, and purposed lied in the story.

An hour later, the story changed to:

"Home prices rebound<br/>
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney September 25, 2012: 10:11 AM ET

Home prices are back to 2003 levels in the latest sign of an
improved housing market.

In another sign of a turnaround in the long-battered real estate
market, average home prices rebounded in July to the same level as
they were nine years ago."

Here's more hilarity. The Bloomberg story says:

"Home Prices in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast in Year
to July<br/>
By Michelle Jamrisko on September 25, 2012

Home prices in the U.S. climbed more than forecast in July from a
year earlier, adding to signs that housing will spur economic
growth."

And so, I guess that home prices rose MORE than forecast. But here's
the Reuters story:

"U.S. home prices rise less than expected in July-S&P

U.S. single-family home prices rose for a sixth month in a row in
July, though the improvement was not as strong as expected, a
closely watched survey showed on Tuesday."

So I guess that home prices rose LESS than expected, not more than
expected.

This is all so pathetic. What's the real story?

I've written a number of times in the past that, based on my own
estimates, home prices will continue to fall to their levels in the
early 1990s, or possibly worse. You can see that by simply applying
the Law of Mean Reversion to the above graph.

Well known financial analyst A. Gary Shilling agrees with
me. [Corrected 26-Sep] According to his monthly "insight" client
newsletter, he expects home prices to drop another 20%. He gives
several reasons:

• There are still about 2 million excess housing inventory
  units.
  
• Prices still have not fallen to anywhere near long-term historical
  averages.
  
• Home ownership in the U.S. is still plummeting. And there is a
  clear inverse correlation between the rate of home-ownership and the
  percentage of 25-34 year olds living in their parents' homes (which is
  still skyrocketing).
  
• There are around 5 million delinquent mortgages and foreclosures
  that add to the supply, and there are millions of homes in the "shadow
  inventory" that aren't currently listed for sale.
  
• The proportion of mortgages originated between 2008 and 2011 that
  are seriously delinquent (90+ days) is rising.
  
• Home prices need to drop another 22% to reach their 1890-2000
  long-term average

So are the reporters who write these stories stupid or lying? I don't
know. I report, you decide.

These figures make it clear that you should not buy a house under almost
any circumstances. Five years from, your house will be worth far less
than it is today.

Standard & Poors and CNN and
Bloomberg and Reuters and Business Insider

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Taiwan, Senkaku, Diaoyu,
Case/Shiller report, home prices

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*** 27-Sep-12 World View -- Massive anti-austerity riots in Athens

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Police fire teargas at massive anti-austerity riots in Athens Greece
• Eurozone agreement forged in June appears near collapse
• Greece accuses Turkey of ramming in the Aegean Sea
• Japan vows no compromise on Senkaku Islands
• Egyptian Sunni and Shia activists come to blows in tv debate

****
**** Police fire teargas at massive anti-austerity riots in Athens Greece
****


A molotov cocktail explodes beside riot police officers near Syntagma square in Athens. (Reuters)

More than 50,000 people marched to Syntagma Square in Athens Greece to
protest the new round of austerity measures that European leaders are
demanding in return for the next bailout. The rally was peaceful at
first, but as it ended, dozens of black-clad youth threw stones,
molotov cocktails and petrol bottles at riot police, who responded
with several rounds of teargas. Greece has promised to implement an
additional 12 billion euros of new austerity cuts. These include
cutting wages, pensions and welfare benefits. With Greece in its
fifth year of recession, analysts say patience is wearing thin leading
to a strong public backlash, with possible violence.
Independent (Dublin)

****
**** Eurozone agreement forged in June appears near collapse
****

A much-ballyhooed deal that the eurozone leaders reached at the end of
June ( "30-Jun-12 World View -- Germany and Angela Merkel cave in to Italy and Spain" )
has now
collapsed, throwing the bailout dreams of Spain and Italy into chaos.

I summarized the terms of that deal at the, and it's worth taking
a moment to review those terms so that you can see the game-playing
going on:

• Bailout money will be provided from the European Stability
  Mechanism (ESM), a bailout fund with much of the money coming from
  Germany.
  
• In previous bailouts, the money was loaned to the country, along
  with demands for austerity measures, such as raising the retirement
  age, privatizing public sector businesses, or cutting the number of
  public sector workers.
  
• The big change in the new agreement was that ESM would lend the
  bailout money to the countries' banks, rather than to the countries.
  That way there are no nettlesome austerity requirements, and no
  increase in the countries' debts.
  
• The banks could then use the money to buy the country's bonds,
  thus pushing down bond yields (interest rates).
  
• With interest rates lower, the countries will be able to borrow
  even more money by selling more bonds.
  
• Thus, Germany will be indirectly purchasing other countries'
  bonds, which Merkel had said would not happen in her
  lifetime.

This whole agreement was never more than a farce. It was being called
a "growth pact," but it would not create one iota of growth. It was
strongly favored by Spain and Italy because it would permit unlimited
profligate behavior to continue, with expenses largely paid by
Germany.

And so on Wednesday, four nations announced a re-interpretation of the
June deal. Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and Austria. They've
added the following sentence to the deal:

"The ESM can take direct responsibility of problems
that occur under the new supervision, but legacy assets should be
under the responsibility of national authorities."

In other words, the really huge legacy debts will still remain on the
books of Spain and Italy. This means that the possibility of default
remains for Spain and Italy, which means that bond yields (interest
rates) will not fall, which means that they will be unable to sell
them as cheaply as they had hoped. Reuters

****
**** Greece accuses Turkey of ramming in the Aegean Sea
****

A Greek coast guard vessel and a Turkish patrol boat collided on
Wednesday in the eastern Aegean Sea. Greece's Foreign Ministry is
accusing the Turkey of having brought about the collision on purpose
in order to challenge Greece's territorial waters, and therefore the
European Union's territorial waters. Although no one was armed, both
sides are said to have armed their weapons during the standoff.
Kathimerini and Greece Foreign Ministry

****
**** Japan vows no compromise on Senkaku Islands
****

After China said on Tuesday that "Fascist" Japan must "abandon
illusions" about retaining sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu
islands, on Wednesday, Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, speaking
at the United Nations, made a statement that was equally firm, though
not as offensive:

"As for the Senkakus, they are an inherent part of our
territory in light of history and also under international law.

There are no territorial issues as such. Therefore, there cannot
be any compromise that represents a retreat from this
position.

I must say clearly to China that there is no excuse for violence
and strongly urge China to protect Japan's citizens and
business."

The reason that China and Japan are fighting over two insignificant,
uninhabitable rocks in the middle of the East China Sea is because the
owner of the islands gets with them control over a 200 mile Exclusive
Economic Zone (EEZ) around the islands, and it's believed that the
region around the islands contains trillions of dollars in oil and gas
deposits, as well as rich fishing waters. Reuters

****
**** Egyptian Sunni and Shia activists come to blows in tv debate
****


"Your wife is contacting Shi'ites, offering to engage them in 'pleasure marriage.'"

In an Egyptian TV show airing on September 9, the Egyptian Sunni Walid
Ismail and Egyptian Shia activist Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud come to blows.
Here are some excerpts:

Moderator: "Let's just talk about one more thing,
since we have only a few minutes left. Let's talk about the
citizen and citizenship. Are Egyptian Shi'ites more loyal to Egypt
or to Iran? In Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah said: 'I'm more loyal to
Iran than to Lebanon.' Is it the same case with the Shi'ites in
Egypt?"

Shi'ite activist Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "Things are much simpler
than that. There is this bunch of really stupid people, who are
like a woodworm gnawing away at the Egyptian people. I'm talking
about the Wahhabis. They are the ones who are responsible for
everything – they are the ones who have driven a wedge between
Muslims and Copts, and between Muslims and Muslims. They
themselves are divided into different sects.

"Secondly, I was a Salafi and then I became a Shi'ite. I wasn't
born a Shi'ite. My father has a Masters degree in Sunni
jurisprudence..."

Sunni activist Walid Ismail: "He renounced you..."

Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "You are a liar."

Walid Ismail: "He did, and so did your brothers."

Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "You are a liar..."

Walid Ismail: "By God, they all renounced you..."

Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "Your wife is contacting Shi'ites, offering
to engage them in 'pleasure marriage.'"

Walid Ismail: "That's inappropriate..."

Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "Do you want me to provide recordings?"

Walid Ismail throws something at Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud, who jumps
out of his chair

Walid Ismail: "Shame on you! That was below the belt! You're being
insolent."

Moderator: "That's enough, Walid. [To Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud:] How
dare you mention his wife?! Shame on you!"

Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "I didn't say anything like that."

Moderator: "Show some respect! Shame on you!"

Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "I didn't say anything like that."

Moderator: "That's it, Walid. I apologize... Dear viewers, let's
take a short break. We'll return shortly."

Memri


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Italy, Spain,
European Stability Mechanism, ESM, Germany, Turkey,
Japan, China, Senkaku Islands, Diaoyu Islands,
Yoshihiko Noda, Egypt

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*** 28-Sep-12 World View -- At U.N., Abbas and Netanyahu are combative, while Ahmadinejad invokes the Mahdi

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• At U.N., Israel's Netanyahu says that Israel will live forever
• Palestinian president Abbas launches blistering attack on Israel
• Iran's Ahmadinejad awaits the arrival of the Mahdi
• More on the Sunni versus Shia television debate
• Generational Dynamics World View now available through e-mail

****
**** At U.N., Israel's Netanyahu says that Israel will live forever
****


Netanyahu holds up his bomb cartoon picture on which he has just drawn a red line,
indicating where Iran's nuclear program should be stopped (CNN)

There have been two days of drama at the United Nations, as world
leaders spoke to the General Assembly. Saying that Israel will live
forever, Israel's President Benjamin Netanyahu used his speech to
contrast Israel against the dark forces of militant Islam:

"Three thousand years ago, King David reigned over the
Jewish state in our eternal capital, Jerusalem. I say that to all
those who proclaim that the Jewish state has no roots in our
region and that it will soon disappear.

Throughout our history, the Jewish people have overcome all the
tyrants who have sought our destruction. It's their ideologies
that have been discarded by history.

The people of Israel live on. We say in Hebrew Am Yisrael Chai,
and the Jewish state will live forever.

The Jewish people have lived in the land of Israel for thousands
of years. Even after most of our people were exiled from it, Jews
continued to live in the land of Israel throughout the ages. The
masses of our people never gave up the dreamed of returning to our
ancient homeland.

Defying the laws of history, we did just that. We in gathered the
exiles, restored our independence and rebuilt our national
life. The Jewish people have come home.

We will never be uprooted again. ...

For today, a great battle is being waged between the modern and
the medieval.

The forces of modernity seek a bright future in which the rights
of all are protected, in which an ever-expanding digital library
is available in the palm of every child, in which every life is
sacred.

The forces of medievalism seek a world in which women and
minorities are subjugated, in which knowledge is suppressed, in
which not life but death is glorified.

These forces clash around the globe, but nowhere more starkly than
in the Middle East.

Israel stands proudly with the forces of modernity. We protect the
rights of all our citizens: men and women, Jews and Arabs, Muslims
and Christians - all are equal before the law. ...

Yet the medieval forces of radical Islam, whom you just saw
storming the American embassies throughout the Middle East, they
oppose this.

They seek supremacy over all Muslims. They are bent on world
conquest. They want to destroy Israel, Europe, America. They want
to extinguish freedom. They want to end the modern world.

Militant Islam has many branches - from the rulers of Iran with
their Revolutionary Guards to Al Qaeda terrorists to the radical
cells lurking in every part of the globe.

But despite their differences, they are all rooted in the same
bitter soil of intolerance. That intolerance is directed first at
their fellow Muslims, and then to Christians, Jews, Buddhists,
Hindus, secular people, anyone who doesn't submit to their
unforgiving creed.

They want to drag humanity back to an age of unquestioning dogma
and unrelenting conflict.

I am sure of one thing. Ultimately they will fail. Ultimately,
light will penetrate the darkness."

The last portion of Netanyahu's speech was a science lesson on how to
build a nuclear weapon. He held up a cartoon picture of a bomb with a
fuse, and drew a red line on the cartoon, saying that Iran will have
enough highly enriched plutonium to build a bomb by next spring or
summer. He asked that the United States and the United Nations draw a
political red line threatening military action against Iran if it
continues to produce highly enriched plutonium. Latinos Post

****
**** Palestinian president Abbas launches blistering attack on Israel
****

In a speech that Netanyahu called "libelous," Palestinian Authority
president Mahmoud Abbas began by saying that "I speak on behalf of an
angry people," and launched a blistering attack on Israel:

"Developments over the past year have confirmed what
we have persistently drawn attention to and warned of: the
catastrophic danger of the racist Israeli settlement of our
country, Palestine.

During the past months, attacks by terrorist militias of Israeli
settlers have become a daily reality, with at least 535 attacks
perpetrated since the beginning of this year. We are facing
relentless waves of attacks against our people, our mosques,
churches and monasteries, and our homes and schools; they are
unleashing their venom against our trees, fields, crops and
properties, and our people have become fixed targets for acts of
killing and abuse with the complete collusion of the occupying
forces and the Israeli Government.

The escalation of settler attacks should not surprise anyone, for
it is the inherent byproduct of the continuation of occupation and
a government policy that deliberately fosters the settlements and
settlers and deems their satisfaction to be an absolute
priority. And, it is the inherent byproduct of the racist climate
fueled by a culture of incitement in the Israeli curriculum and
extremist declarations, which are rife with hatred and are rooted
in a series of discriminatory laws created and enacted over the
years against the Palestinian people, as well as by the security
apparatus and courts, which provide excuse after excuse for the
settlers' crimes and for their accelerated release should one of
them happen to be arrested, and by official and military
commissions of inquiry, which fabricate justifications for
soldiers who have committed what are clearly considered to be war
crimes and perpetrated acts of murder, torture and abuse of
peaceful civilians."

Abbas said that this year he will not allow the United States to stop
him from applying to the United Nations General Assembly for
recognition of the State of Palestine as a non-member state of the
United Nations. This will qualify Palestine to join all
U.N. organizations, and, if desired, to pursue Israel in International
Criminal Court. Latinos Post

****
**** Iran's Ahmadinejad awaits the arrival of the Mahdi
****

Speaking for the 8th and last time at the United Nations, Iran's
president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad used his speech to propose a new world
order based on the imminent coming of the Mahdi. Ahmadinejad is a
devout believer in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief that the
Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to save
mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in
the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the Maitreya --
that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete
enlightenment. In 2011, Ahmadinejad used his belief in the Mahdi
to justify disobeying the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
On Wednesday, he said:

"God Almighty has promised us a man of kindness, a man
who loves people and loves absolute justice, a man who is a
perfect human being and is named Imam A1-Mahdi, a man who will
come in the company of Jesus Christ (PBUH) and the righteous. By
using the inherent potential of all the worthy men and women of
all nations and I repeat, the inherent potential of "all the
worthy men and women of all nations" he will lead humanity into
achieving its glorious and eternal ideals.

The arrival of the Ultimate Savior will mark a new beginning, a
rebirth and a resurrection. It will be the beginning of peace,
lasting security and genuine life.

His arrival will be the end of oppression, immorality, poverty,
discrimination and the beginning of justice, love and empathy.

He will come and he will cut through ignorance, superstition,
prejudice by opening the gates of science and knowledge. He will
establish a world brimful of prudence and he will prepare the
ground for the collective, active and constructive participation
of all in the global management."

In more prosaic portions of his speech, he said that the United
Nations is useless, and it should be replaced by the Non-Aligned
Movement organization.

What was surprising about Ahmadinejad's speech were the things that
were omitted. He didn't attack Israel, he didn't mention Syria, and
he didn't mention Iran's nuclear program. Latinos Post

****
**** More on the Sunni versus Shia television debate
****

In yesterday's world view
, I
quoted a televised exchange between Sunni and Shia activists that
devolved into name-calling and violence. The Sunni said that the Shia
had been renounced by his own father and brothers, and the Shia
retorted:

"Your wife is contacting Shi'ites, offering to engage
them in 'pleasure marriage.' ... Do you want me to provide
recordings?"

A web site reader has informed me that this was NOT just an irrelevant
personal attack. A "pleasure marriage" is a temporary marriage under
a contract that specifies a fixed time period. It's permitted by Shia
Islam, but not by Sunni Islam. And so the remark was intended to say
to the Sunni, "Even your own wife is following Shia practices which
should be blasphemous to you." Memri

****
**** Generational Dynamics World View now available through e-mail
****

The e-mail service has been running for over two months now, and it's
running very smoothly. You can subscribe to the e-mail list by
clicking on this link:

http://GenerationalDynamics.com/Subscribe

You will then receive the Generational Dynamics World View columns in
your e-mailbox each day, usually around midnight ET.

You can choose to receive messages in either "HTML" or "TEXT" format.
I've gone to a fair amount of trouble to write a translator that
produces a pretty good "TEXT" format message that should be easy to
read on iPads or other mobile devices.

The e-mail list is being administered by Constant Contact,
which does not use your e-mail address for spam. The way I know
this is that I subscribe to a number of other newsletters
that are administered by Constant Contact, and I use a different
e-mail address for each one, so if my address were being used
for spam, I would know immediately. So you can feel safe
subscribing to the Generational Dynamics World View newsletter,
and you can safely unsubscribe at any time you choose.

Suggestions for improvements may be directed to me.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Nations General Assembly,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas,
Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, non-Aligned Movement,
Sunni, Shia, Pleasure marriage

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*** 29-Sep-12 World View -- Aftermath of Libyan military action sees big increase in al-Qaeda activity in Africa

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Debka: Benghazi murder of Chris Stevens was revenge for plot against al-Qaeda
• France's Hollande calls for immediate military action in Mali
• Aftermath of Libyan military action sees big increase in al-Qaeda activity in Africa

****
**** Debka: Benghazi murder of Chris Stevens was revenge for plot against al-Qaeda
****


Abdelmalek Droukdel

Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong, is quoting its military
intelligence sources as saying that the reason why the Obama
administration is covering up the al-Qaeda links to the murder of
American ambassador Chris Stevens on September 11 in Benghazi, Libya,
was because the murder was an act of revenge for US-led plans to
assassinate the terrorist Abdelmalek Droukdel, "Emir of Al Qaeda in
the Land of the Maghreb", or Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
According to the details of the story, which Debka says are not fully
confirmed, the Americans collaborated with the Libyan, Algerian and
Tunisian secret services to kill Droukdel and the entire AQIM
leadership, an accomplishment that would have rivaled the killing of
Osama bin Laden for the Obama administration. However, Droukdel got
wind of the assassination plans, and turned the tables, killing
Stevens. The "spontaneous attack" theory put forward by numerous
officials in the administration was a full-throated lie.

Armed Islamist groups, including AQIM, Libya's Ansar al-Sharia,
Nigeria's Boko Haram, Mali's Ansar al-Dine and the West African
Monotheism and Jihad are now preparing to discuss expanding their
joint operations, including the smuggling of arms, money and
jihadists, using the impetus provided by their Benghazi "success."
Debka

****
**** France's Hollande calls for immediate military action in Mali
****

France's President François Hollande called Wednesday for the Security
Council to approve African military intervention in Mali "as quickly
as possible." France and the African union would provide logistical
support to an effort led by ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African
States). Mali is a former French colony, and al-Qaeda linked Ansar
al-Dine has now taken control of 2/3rds of the country, an area as
large as France itself. A side meeting of the U.N. Security Council
was held on Mali, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
agreed that the Mali situation was serious:

"We all know too well what is happening in Mali, and
the incredible danger posed by violent extremists imposing their
brutal ideology, committing human rights abuses, destroying
irreplaceable cultural heritage. We have to train the security
forces in Mali, help them dislodge the extremists, protect human
rights, and defend borders."

However, Clinton and other U.N. Security Council members urged
caution, and there will be no support for military action in Mali.
AP and Reuters

****
**** Aftermath of Libyan military action sees big increase in al-Qaeda activity in Africa
****

The death of Osama bin Laden raised the hope that al-Qaeda was in
decline, but the killing of U.S. ambassador Chris Stevens was only the
latest of the successes of a newly invigorated group of al-Qaeda
linked militant organizations in Africa. Much of their success
follows from the aftermath of the military action in Libya last year.
As I've been reporting for over a year, the fall of Muammar Gaddafi
left behind huge warehouses of modern weapons that have now fallen
into the hands of these major African Islamic militant groups --
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Libya's Ansar al-Sharia,
Nigeria's Boko Haram, Mali's Ansar al-Dine and the West African
Monotheism and Jihad. (See: "8-Sep-11 World View -- Thousands of surface-to-air missiles missing from Libya warehouses"
) These weapons were used in the
Benghazi attack that killed Chris Stevens, they were used in the
takeover of Mali, they've been used in terrorist attacks in Algeria,
they've been used in battles between Christians ans Muslims in
Nigeria, they've been used against Egyptian forces in the Sinai, and
there is certainly much worse to come.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Abdelmalek Droukdel,
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Ansar al-Sharia,
Boko Haram, Ansar al-Dine, West African Monotheism and Jihad,
François Hollande, France, United Nations, Hillary Clinton,
Chris Stevens, Algeria, Sinai

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*** 30-Sep-12 World View -- The age of disillusion haunts senior citizens in China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violent tactics by riot police cause bloodshed in Madrid, Spain
• Ethnic Russian nationalism drives move to separate the North Caucasus from Russia
• The age of disillusion haunts senior citizens in China

****
**** Violent tactics by riot police cause bloodshed in Madrid, Spain
****


Riot police struggle with protesters during demonstrations in Madrid against austerity cutbacks. (EPA)

Undercover policemen provoked far right and far left activists to
violence on Friday, as Spain's economy continues to circle the drain,
unemployment passes 25%, and the wealthy Catalonia region's separation
movement is gathering steam. Everyone knows that Spain needs a
bailout, but prime minister Mariano Rajoy is playing a game where he's
refusing to ask the EU for a bailout, because he believes that he'll
lose his bargaining leverage once he makes the request. Rajoy
submitted a budget on Friday that would cut spending by 7% next year,
bringing another wave of cuts in health, education and other welfare
services, and freezing civil servants' salaries for a third year.
Rajoy got some more bad news last week when, as we've recently reported
, the June eurozone
agreement is near collapse, meaning that Spain's legacy debt will
remain on its books, and the national government won't be able to
spend as freely as they had hoped. Guardian

****
**** Ethnic Russian nationalism drives move to separate the North Caucasus from Russia
****

Clashes between ethnic and non-ethnic Russians in the North
Caucasus (Russia's southern provinces) continue to erupt.
In one recent case, 200 police officers had to be called out to
quell the disorder when two people got into an argument, and then
called all their friends and communities to come and support them.
(This reminds me of some of the stories about how "mass incidents"
start in China.) Ethnic Russians, who are mostly Russian Orthodox
Christian, say that Dagestanis, who are mostly Sunni Muslim,
threaten to kill Russian passers-by, but the Dagestanis point
out that they're sheep farmers who are making a lot more money
than the ethnic Russians, who are just jealous. Anti-Caucasian
nationalist sentiment has been growing for years among ethnic
Russians, but the security services, who have to maintain
order, are provoking nationalism for their own purposes.
One after another, Russian nationalist and nationalist-leaning writers
and analysts are coming to the conclusion that the North Caucasus
should be excluded from Russia. According to one:

"[North Caucasians have practically] exited from the
Russian constitutional, mental, civil and any other space. This is
no longer Russia. The generation that grew up there does not
equate itself with Russia. In the first place, they are not
Russians, but the carriers of Islamic, ethnic, clan or some other
identities, [and the Kremlin] robs ethnic Russian regions of
resources and redirects them to the North Caucasus."

The growth of Russian nationalism is putting ethnic Russians on a
collision course with North Caucasians, and separation may be the only
answer. Jamestown

****
**** The age of disillusion haunts senior citizens in China
****


Elderly disillusion in China

The mental health of elderly Chinese is deteriorating "unexpectedly
quickly", according to Li Bengong, president of the Gerontological
Society of China, adding, "The mental health issues afflicting elderly
Chinese people are the most serious in the world." The problems of
the elderly in China are similar to those in the U.S. -- illness, lack
of insurance, loss of social status, wondering what to do while
they're waiting to die -- resulting in depression and suicide.

But there are special problems for people with Alzheimers. Only 1% of
people with Alzheimers ever receive professional treatment. It's too
expensive, costing annually 20,000 yuan ($3200), half a family's
income. Furthermore, "Many Chinese are afraid that if they send their
parents to special medical institutions, friends and neighbors will
blame them and say they are unwilling to take care of their elderly
relatives."

Remarriage is another problem for the elderly. "My children may look
down on me if I try to find another spouse," says one widow. "Many
children think they'll lose face or end up in property disputes if
their parents remarry. As a result, may elderly just live together.

Experts suggest developing toys for the elderly -- electronic
mathematical and spelling puzzles, and dolls aimed at replicating the
feeling of having a grandchild. According to one expert, more than
one-fifth of elderly people in the United States play video games, but
that the phenomenon is rarely seen in China. China Daily


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Catalonia, Mariano Rajoy,
Russia, North Caucasus, China, Alzheimers disease

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