*** 1-Oct-12 World View -- Syria interrogated and murdered downed Turkish pilots

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Reports: Syria, under Russian guidance, interrogated and murdered Turkish pilots
• Turkey deploys armored vehicles to Syrian border
• Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party comes to New York and Montreal
• Europe-Greece bailout negotiations resume with 'a sense of unease'

****
**** Reports: Syria, under Russian guidance, interrogated and murdered Turkish pilots
****


Turkey deploys armored vehicles to Syrian border on Friday, after Syrian mortars land in Turkey (AA)

In June, after Syria allegedly shot down a Turkish warplane in a
missile attack, Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called
the Syrian action an "act of war," and invoked Article 4 of the Nato
charter, which calls for consultations with other Nato members after
one Nato member has been attacked, since an attack on one member
nation is considered to be an attack on all. At the time, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad apologized for the "unintentional" incident.

Leaked documents on Sunday now reveal that the two pilots in the
downed warplane were rescued by Syria, in coordination with the
Russians. According to one document:

"Two Turkish pilots were captured by the Syrian Air
Force Intelligence after their jet was shot down in coordination
with the Russian naval base in Tartus."

According to the documents, the pilots were interrogated to determine
Turkey's actions in support of the Syrian opposition. Al-Assad had
then wanted to turn them over to the Hizbollah terrorist group
in Lebanon, but the Russians stopped them:

"Based on information and guidance from the Russian
leadership comes a need to eliminate the two Turkish pilots
detained by the Special Operations Unit in a natural way and their
bodies need to be returned to the crash site in international
waters."

After the pilots were murdered and dumped, the Russians told al-Assad
to apologize to the Turks for downing the plane, and he did.

If this story is confirmed, then it will be much more an embarrassment
to Turkey than to Syria. The Syrians and the Russians don't really
give a shit what the Turks think, because they know that Erdogan will
talk and shout, but there won't be any action. For over 18 months,
Erdogan and the rest of the West, as well as the United Nations, have
issued the same statement over and over: "The violence is terrible,
and it MUST stop now." This is particularly a problem for Erdogan,
since Turkey is playing host to some 90,000 Syrians in refugee camps
near the Syrian border. Erdogan does not want to take military action
against Syria, but his political opposition is questioning his
leadership. Al-Arabiya and Haaretz and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Turkey deploys armored vehicles to Syrian border
****

On Friday, prior to the disclosure of the leaked documents, a Syrian
mortar barrage landed in the downtown of a Turkish city on the border
with Syria, damaging homes and workplaces. The barrage came from
inside Syria, where Syrian troops and opposition forces have been
fighting. Turkey has deployed dozens of armored vehicles to the
region near the Syrian border and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
threatened military action:

"I would like the public to know that if such breaches
towards our borders continue we are reserving our rights and we
are exercising our rights."

If I'm not mistaken, Davutoglu has issued exactly the same statement
dozens of times in the last 18 months. Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party comes to New York and Montreal
****


Golden Dawn supporters receiving handouts (AFP)

Greece's neo-Nazi political party, Golden Dawn, which has received up
to 20% support in polls this year amid violent austerity riots in
Athens, has opened offices in New York City and Montreal. The
ultra-nationalist party has been collecting food and medicine among
expatriate Greek communities, promising to dispense the aid only to
ethnic Greeks in Greece. No aid will be given to immigrants, even
legal immigrants. The party was criticized when it recently released
a video showing a squad of Golden Dawn supporters and MPs ransacking
an immigrant flea market in Greece. The party has already attracted
152 members in Montreal. Canadian leader Jimmy James says:

"Illegal immigrants, they put knives to old ladies’
throats. They’re taking over our homes. The police are doing
nothing about it. ... Nobody wants to see blood spilled. But
that’s what it’s starting to look like. It looks like it’s leading
to a civil war."

National Post (Montreal) and Greek Reporter

****
**** Europe-Greece bailout negotiations resume with 'a sense of unease'
****

After taking a "brief pause" for a week, the leaders of the EU
"troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European
Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) -- are back in Athens to resume negotiations over
the terms of the next bailout loan for Greece. Greece must reduce its
budget deficit by 13.5 billion euros next year in order to qualify for
the 31.5 billion euro bailout loan that it needs to avoid bankruptcy
next month. With those kinds of numbers, it's not surprising that
Greek officials are feeling "a sense of unease" over the intentions of
the Troika, and whether they plan to approve the bailout payment even
if Greece can't meet all of its austerity commitments. Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Ahmet Davutoglu, Greece, Golden Dawn, New York City, Montreal,
Troika, EC, ECB, IMF

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I wish I had thought to post this at the time...earlier this year I came across a newspaper article - it said that local government in Germany was attempting to make ends meet by cutting parks and recreation. In the Seattle area, this was an early sign of economic distress; eventually, cities moved on to the police and fire departments. (Washington state also began with parks and recreation in an attempt to make ends meet).

Ahmadinejad's comment about the United Nations being useless...will the U.N. go the way of League of Nations?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Ahmadinejad's comment about the United Nations being useless...will the U.N. go the way of League of Nations?

Well, the UN Human Rights Council is likely making Eleanor Roosevelt roll in her grave.

Originally Posted by Odin

Well, the UN Human Rights Council is likely making Eleanor Roosevelt roll in her grave.

Yes, well, if the UN were to vanish would people say "good riddance"? Or would anybody give a damn?

*** 2-Oct-12 World View -- American Express fined $112.5 million over massive consumer fraud

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• American Express fined $112.5 million over massive consumer fraud
• Subprime mortgages are back in volume
• EU finance ministers appear ready to give in to Athens rioters
• Syria's Foreign Minister gives farcical speech at the United Nations

****
**** American Express fined $112.5 million over massive consumer fraud
****


Elite American Express 'Black Card'

Several months ago, I reported

that Capital One was fined $150 for massive credit card fraud. Now
it's the turn of the crooks at American Express. Since 2003, the
company has lied to customers, charged illegal fees, and discriminated
against older customers (presumably Boomers).

You may think that American Express is a "reputable company" that
would never do anything like this, so this is a good time to remind
you of a scam that I reported
in 2009. The Senate Commerce Committee discovered the
scam works as follows: You make a credit card purchase online from
Priceline or other retailers. At the end of the transaction, you're
offered a "reward" of some kind, a coupon worth a few dollars. You
click the fine print, and it turns out that you've agreed to let the
retailer charge your credit card $10-20 per month. According to the
Senate reports, the online retailers were fully aware that they were
defrauding consumers, but they didn't care because they were making so
much money -- $1.4 billion from millions of customers.

Here's the list of online retailers that the Senate found
committed this fraud:


1-800-FLOWERS.com Hotwire Priceline.com
AirTran Holdings Intelius Redcats USA
Classmates.com FTD Shutterfly
Continental Airlines Orbitz Worldwide US Airways Group
Movietickets.com Pizza Hut Vistaprint USA
Fandango


These are like American Express: all "reputable companies," and all
crooks who feel they have license to screw their customers in any way
they like.

I have a personal experience with American Express. I discovered that
American Express had signed me up for some kind of completely
worthless "rewards" program, and was charging me $55 a year. They had
simply added this charge to my credit card. They have computerized
profile systems that attempt to identify the best way to market to
different consumers, and I believe that they targeted me for the
following reasons:

• I'm an older person (Boomer), and a lot of older people don't
  pay close enough attention to the items on their credit card bills.
  
• I use a bill payer service to pay my bills automatically. Amex
  knew this, and they also knew that a lot of people who use bill payer
  services don't check their bills as closely as people who write out
  checks every month.
  
• A lot of older people also have help with their bills in other
  ways. Perhaps an assistant or son or daughter pays his bills for him,
  and that person would have no idea that a "rewards" program was a
  scam.

Their scam certainly worked on me. I paid the annual fee twice before
discovering it. I called up customer service and told them I never
signed up for the "rewards" program, and demanded that they cancel it
and refund the two payments. I've been a cardholder since 1976, but
customer service said to me, in effect, "F--k you." So I canceled the
card entirely. F--k them.

I have to repeat, as I've said so many times, that the world has
changed enormously since the 1990s. At that time, Amex really WAS a
"reputable" company, as were the other companies listed above, and a
scam like this in the 1980s would have been next to impossible. But
ever since the Gen-Xers reached middle management positions in the
last decade, we've had one major crime after another -- from tens of
trillions of dollars in fraudulent mortgage-backed securities to the
recent LIBOR scandal.

As I've also said many times, there may be no more criminals among
Gen-Xers than among other generations, but what defines the Gen-Xers
and makes then unique is their adamant refusal to blame other Gen-Xers
for anything. Boomers happily sent Boomers to jail, but the Obama
justice department has not sent a bankster to jail for the
massive fraud that caused the global financial crisis. Thus, banksters
are free to continue committing crimes, with no fear of prosecution.

And sure enough, Amex is not admitting that they did anything wrong,
and none of the Amex crooks will go to jail. Bloomberg

****
**** Subprime mortgages are back in volume
****

Financial institutions are convinced that the housing bubble
collapse is over, and that it's time to start offering subprime
mortgages at high interest rates to borrowers who otherwise
wouldn't qualify for mortgages.

This is just one more disaster waiting to happen. As I wrote last week,
the housing bubble
collapse is far from over, and, I estimate that home prices will fall
an additional 10-20%. The people who are saying that can't happen are
exactly the same people who were saying in 2006 that there's no such
thing as a housing bubble, because "Everybody has to live somewhere!"
UPI

****
**** EU finance ministers appear ready to give in to Athens rioters
****

Tempers are flaring as the EU "troika" negotiators have returned
to Greece to try once again to agree to austerity measures that Greece
has repeatedly committed to but has never implemented. It's becoming
abundantly clear to everyone that Greece will not comply with the
austerity demands. Period. Especially with tens of thousands of
Greeks rioting and demonstrating outside the Parliament building.

Nonetheless, the rest of Europe is terrified at the prospect of Greece
defaulting and leaving the euro zone. The domino theory is no longer
being discussed as a possibility, but rather as a likely scenario,
with Spain and Italy quickly following Greece. It's likely that the
troika's final recommendations have been preordained from the
beginning: No matter whether Athens implements any austerity measures
or not, they're going to get their bailout. Spiegel

****
**** Syria's Foreign Minister gives farcical speech at the United Nations
****

Syria's foreign minister Walid al-Moualem blamed the conflict in Syria
on "organized terrorism" sponsored by the United States and its
allies. According to al-Moualem:

"We also wonder to what extent the statements of
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States, and France that
clearly induce and support terrorism in Syria with money, weapons
and foreign fighters, are in line with the international
responsibilities of these countries in combating
terrorism."

One Security Council diplomat described the speech as "orthodox,
predictable and completely out of touch with reality."

Presumably al-Moualem's speech was a response to President Obama's
speech to the same audience last week, when he said:

"In Syria, the future must not belong to a dictator
who massacres his people. If there is a cause that cries out for
protest in the world today, peaceful protest, it is a regime that
tortures children and shoots rockets at apartment
buildings."

The Syria situation has been a disaster for United Nations, for
obvious reasons. We have a country that tortures children and shoots
rockets at apartment buildings, and the U.N. politicians have been
nothing but a bunch of buffoons for 18 months. The U.N. has actually
made the situation much worse, by providing cover for increased
violence by Syria and Russia with such farces as Kofi Annan's
six-point "peace plan."

A web site reader has posed the interesting question, "Will the
U.N. go the way of League of Nations?"

History has decided that the reason that the League of Nations failed
in the 1930s was because the isolationist United States was never a
member. That's why, after WW II, the United States did a 180 degree
turnaround and became the world leader of the United Nations, even
agreeing to hold its headquarters in New York.

But now we're seeing the United Nations looking as pitiful and
powerless as the League of Nations. That's because in the 1930s, much
of the world was in a generational Crisis era, and the same is true
today. In other eras, compromise and accommodation are possible, but
in a Crisis era, nationalism and xenophobia become prevalent, and
compromise becomes impossible, on both a national and international
level.

Once the Clash of Civilizations world war is over, the survivors will
settle on some reason why the U.N. failed. This time, it won't be
because the U.S. wasn't a member, but maybe the world community will
think up some other reason to blame the U.S. Whatever the reason, the
survivors will form a United Nations II after the war ends.

An interesting question is: What form will the new post-war United
Nations take? Will there still be a Security Council, and will the
U.S. still have a veto? Will the General Assembly have more or fewer
powers? An interesting speculation. Al-Jazeera

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, American Express, Greece, Troika,
Syria, United Nations, Walid al-Moualem,
League of Nations

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Xenakis is still pushing his WW3 nonsense? There will not be another World War. Why? NUKES.

*** 3-Oct-12 World View -- China and Japan in naval standoff in East China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China and Japan in naval standoff in East China Sea
• Military intervention in Mali comes a step closer
• Lebanon confirms that Hizbollah is fighting in Syria
• Iran's Ahmadinejad blames disastrous fall of rial on U.S.

****
**** China and Japan in naval standoff in East China Sea
****


Chinese surveillance ship in front, Japanese coast guard ship in back (Kyodo)

China announced on Tuesday that four Chinese marine surveillance ships
had begun patrolling in the waters around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu
islands in the East China Sea. The purpose was to confront "the
Japanese right-winger's intrusion." The new Chinese surveillance
ships will be patrolling the same waters as Japanese Coast Guard
ships. With both countries in highly nationalistic moods, the
possibility of an incident involving military action has increased
significantly. Xinhua and VOA

****
**** Military intervention in Mali comes a step closer
****

France and several African countries have been calling for military
intervention in Mali to throw out the Ansar Dine, the al-Qaeda linked
terrorist group that is now in control of the northern two-thirds of
Mali. However, the calls for intervention have been largely ignored,
since the Mali government itself has been unwilling to request
military intervention, apparently out of fear that neighboring armies
would never leave. But Mali's government has now given the go-ahead
for a major troop deployment in northern Mali. If the military
deployment goes ahead, the troops will come from France and from
countries belonging to the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS). The U.S. has expressed caution about military intervention
in Mali, and may not support the effort. Guardian/Le Monde and IRIN

****
**** Lebanon confirms that Hizbollah is fighting in Syria
****

An announcement on Tuesday that is likely to raise the level of
tension between Sunni and Shia Muslims in the Mideast was confirmation
from a Lebanon security official that a commander and several fighters
from the terrorist group Hizbollah were killed inside Syria.

Hizbollah is a Shia terrorist group located in Lebanon but more loyal
to Iran than to Lebanon. Hizbollah has been supporting Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad as he's been torturing Sunni children and
sending rockets into Sunni apartment buildings, and so he has been
receiving a great deal of criticism for supporting a mass murderer.
Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly claimed that he is
not providing military support to al-Assad, but it now appears that in
fact he is. AP and BBC

****
**** Iran's Ahmadinejad blames disastrous fall of rial on U.S.
****

Iran's rial currency has lost a catastrophic 80% of its value since
2011, including an 18% plunge on Monday, and another 9% on Tuesday.
In a speech on Tuesday, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed
the "enemies" of his country for the sharp falls in the rial. He may
be right, in the sense that U.S.-led are thought to be the principal
cause of the rial's collapse. Iran is having a great deal of
difficulty selling oil, or in getting paid after the oil has been
delivered. In addition, many Iranians are selling rials and hoarding
dollars, exacerbating the situation. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu,
Mali, Ansar Dine, France,
Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS,
Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, Bashar al-Assad, Syria,
Iran, rial, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

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Originally Posted by Odin

Xenakis is still pushing his WW3 nonsense? There will not be another World War. Why? NUKES.

The Generational Dynamics prediction, mostly derived from TFT, is that
the first use of a nuclear weapon will probably be part of the
Regeneracy leading to the war. The use of nuclear weapons will be
gradual and selective at first, but will increase as the war
approaches a climax. By the time that the crisis war climax has been
reached, every nuclear weapon in the world will have been used. I
estimate that 2-3 billion people will be killed from war, nuclear
weapons, disease and starvation, leaving 4-5 billion survivors to
carry on after the war.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The Generational Dynamics prediction, mostly derived from TFT, is that the first use of a nuclear weapon will probably be part of the Regeneracy leading to the war. The use of nuclear weapons will be gradual and selective at first, but will increase as the war approaches a climax. By the time that the crisis war climax has been reached, every nuclear weapon in the world will have been used. I estimate that 2-3 billion people will be killed from war, nuclear weapons, disease and starvation, leaving 4-5 billion survivors to carry on after the war.

I thnk it goes without saying that the entire world hopes you're wrong.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I thnk it goes without saying that the entire world hopes you're wrong.

Even I hope I'm wrong.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The Generational Dynamics prediction, mostly derived from TFT, is thatthe first use of a nuclear weapon will probably be part of the
Regeneracy leading to the war. The use of nuclear weapons will begradual and selective at first, but will increase as the warapproaches a climax. By the time that the crisis war climax has beenreached, every nuclear weapon in the world will have been used. Iestimate that 2-3 billion people will be killed from war, nuclearweapons, disease and starvation, leaving 4-5 billion survivors tocarry on after the war.

Do you really think there will be 4-5 billion survivors after all nukes in the world have been used? I would say you are quite the optimist!

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I thnk it goes without saying that the entire world hopes you're wrong.

He needs to read Steven Pinker's book The Better Angels of Our Nature.

Originally Posted by Odin

He needs to read Steven Pinker's book The Better Angels of Our Nature.

Wouldn't he be better served by reading something that's more than just wishful thinking applied to bad statistics? For Xenakis, I think this might be a good start. One step at a time, and all..

*** 4-Oct-12 World View -- Turkey and Syria exchange fire across their border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkish army returns fire after Syrian shells kill five in Turkey
• Iran's currency crash brings riots and government crisis

****
**** Turkish army returns fire after Syrian shells kill five in Turkey
****


People run for cover in Akcakale Turkey after mortar shells from Syria hit the town. (EPA)

The Syria conflict took a substantial escalation on Wednesday, after
Syrian army mortar shells traveled across the border to the border
town of Akcakale, Turkey, killing a woman and her three daughters,
along with another woman. Turkey's army struck back at targets inside
Syria, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a statement:

"Our armed forces in the border region responded
immediately to this abominable attack in line with their rules of
engagement; targets were struck through artillery fire against
places in Syria identified by radar.

Turkey will never leave unanswered such kinds of provocation by
the Syrian regime against our national security."

It's not known what Turkey's targets were inside Syria.

A Syrian mortar barrage struck inside Turkey last Friday, damaging
homes and workplaces, but causing no casualties. Turkey's response at
that time was to deploy dozens of armored vehicles to the Syrian
border, and issue a statement threatening military action: "I would
like the public to know that if such breaches towards our borders
continue we are reserving our rights and we are exercising our
rights."

It was believed that Friday's incident was an accident by Syria,
but there are unproven suspicions that the new incident was
intentional, and the town may have been targeted. This would
be consistent with the vitriolic criticisms of Turkey by
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for aiding and training
the Syrian opposition.

Erdogan is under intense domestic nationalistic pressure to do
something about the Syrian situation, particularly since Turkey is
hosting over 90,000 Syrian refugees, with hundreds more crossing the
border every day. However, it's not believed that he wants to get
involved in Syria militarily, and so today's respond may have been
just for domestic consumpsion. Zaman (Istanbul) and Bloomberg

****
**** Iran's currency crash brings riots and government crisis
****

Iran's currency, the rial, has lost 40% in value against the dollar
in the last few days, and a catastrophic 80% of its value since
2011. This has dramatically affected the lives of ordinary Iranians,
as most imported goods, including things as varied as meat, oil,
sugar, tires and car parts have doubled in price in the last few months.

This triggered riots in Tehran, but these were different than the
riots that occurred in 2009. In those riots, students were
demonstrating against the political system that reelected Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad as president. Today's riots are political, not
generational. The protesters today are not students, but they're
merchants and money changers from Tehran's sprawling Grand Bazaar.

The standard response of the Iranian regime to any problem is to blame
it on the Great Satan (the U.S.), and Ahmadinejad has been struggling
to find ways to point the blame at America. However, this trick
has stopped working, and the Iranian people are blaming Ahmadinejad
for the failure of the financial crisis. Although Ahmadinejad is
blaming the U.S.-led sanctions, many people are blaming Ahmadinejad
for adopting policies that don't respond properly to the sanctions,
such as by spending money supporting terrorist activities by
Hizbollah.

The merchants and money-changers are closely allied with the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, who last year had a vitriolic
split with Ahmadinejad. So these riots serve Khamanei's purpose in
deflecting criticism away from himself.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran is in
a generational Awakening era, just one generation past Iran's
last generational crisis war, the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution
and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988. We're now seeing
a transition in Iran that also occurred in America at the same point
in its generational Awakening era of the 1960s-70s.

In 1967, America had a huge student-level protest in the form of the
"Summer of Love." (From 2007: "Boomers commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Summer of Love."
) This was the height of the "generation gap" that
separated the young Boomer generation from their parents. But
a generational split of this type forces everyone in all generations
pick sides, and so the generational split morphs into a political
split, as it did in America in the early 1970s. The result was
the Awakening era climax, when President Richard Nixon was forced
to resign in 1974.

Now we see the same thing happen in Iran. The generational split of
2009 is now morphing into a political split. As Iran's Awakening era
progresses, we would expect the political split to lead to some kind
of Awakening crisis, quite possible the hoped-for "regime change."
And of course if regime change occurs, then whoever is the
U.S. President at the time will take full credit. Independent (London) and Tehran Times and US News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Iran, rial currency, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Summer of Love,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei

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Originally Posted by John J.

1-800-FLOWERS.com Hotwire Priceline.com
AirTran Holdings Intelius Redcats USA
Classmates.com FTD Shutterfly
Continental Airlines Orbitz Worldwide US Airways Group
Movietickets.com Pizza Hut Vistaprint USA
Fandango

Originally Posted by Rag's Privoxy block file

1. .fandango.com #see www.cookiecert.com/cookies-for-fangango

Hmmm...
http://blog.trendmicro.com/trendlabs...-malware-ploy/
.fandango.com blocked.

Thank you. I'll add classmates.com.
Shutterfly : malware vector. Downloads from site may be legit or *.scr files that are really malware.

These are like American Express: all "reputable companies," and all
crooks who feel they have license to screw their customers in any way
they like.

Reputable companies? American Express is a financial firm. They're all pretty much fraud laden.

I have a personal experience with American Express. I discovered that
American Express had signed me up for some kind of completely
worthless "rewards" program, and was charging me $55 a year. They had
simply added this charge to my credit card. They have computerized
profile systems that attempt to identify the best way to market to
different consumers, and I believe that they targeted me for the
following reasons:

• I'm an older person (Boomer), and a lot of older people don't
  pay close enough attention to the items on their credit card bills.
• I use a bill payer service to pay my bills automatically. Amex
  knew this, and they also knew that a lot of people who use bill payer
  services don't check their bills as closely as people who write out
  checks every month.
• A lot of older people also have help with their bills in other
  ways. Perhaps an assistant or son or daughter pays his bills for him,
  and that person would have no idea that a "rewards" program was a
  scam.

Their scam certainly worked on me. I paid the annual fee twice before
discovering it. I called up customer service and told them I never
signed up for the "rewards" program, and demanded that they cancel it
and refund the two payments. I've been a cardholder since 1976, but
customer service said to me, in effect, "F--k you." So I canceled the
card entirely. F--k them.

You got rewarded with wisdom. (Or for us younger folks, "street smarts". )

I have to repeat, as I've said so many times, that the world has
changed enormously since the 1990s. At that time, Amex really WAS a
"reputable" company, as were the other companies listed above, and a
scam like this in the 1980s would have been next to impossible. But
ever since the Gen-Xers reached middle management positions in the
last decade, we've had one major crime after another -- from tens of
trillions of dollars in fraudulent mortgage-backed securities to the
recent LIBOR scandal.

Really? Angelo Mozillo isn't an Xer for example. How about Bernanke?

As I've also said many times, there may be no more criminals among
Gen-Xers than among other generations, but what defines the Gen-Xers
and makes then unique is their adamant refusal to blame other Gen-Xers
for anything. Boomers happily sent Boomers to jail, but the Obama
justice department has not sent a bankster to jail for the
massive fraud that caused the global financial crisis. Thus, banksters
are free to continue committing crimes, with no fear of prosecution.

See above. Bernanke, Frank, and Dodd.

And sure enough, Amex is not admitting that they did anything wrong,
and none of the Amex crooks will go to jail. Bloomberg

Neither are Frank and Dodd.

****
**** Subprime mortgages are back in volume
****

Financial institutions are convinced that the housing bubble
collapse is over, and that it's time to start offering subprime
mortgages at high interest rates to borrowers who otherwise
wouldn't qualify for mortgages.

This is just one more disaster waiting to happen. As I wrote last week,
the housing bubble
collapse is far from over, and, I estimate that home prices will fall
an additional 10-20%. The people who are saying that can't happen are
exactly the same people who were saying in 2006 that there's no such
thing as a housing bubble, because "Everybody has to live somewhere!"
UPI

Wow. Another life time opportunity to go and buy put options. 10/20% is probably optimistic. My guess is that I'll see a lot of Mcmansions ending up as strip mines for stuff like copper and toilets. Once gasoline prices hit $5.00/gal. those are useless as habitable places. Grow houses and crack lab locales, sure.

****
**** EU finance ministers appear ready to give in to Athens rioters
****

Tempers are flaring as the EU "troika" negotiators have returned
to Greece to try once again to agree to austerity measures that Greece
has repeatedly committed to but has never implemented. It's becoming
abundantly clear to everyone that Greece will not comply with the
austerity demands. Period. Especially with tens of thousands of
Greeks rioting and demonstrating outside the Parliament building.

Nonetheless, the rest of Europe is terrified at the prospect of Greece
defaulting and leaving the euro zone. The domino theory is no longer
being discussed as a possibility, but rather as a likely scenario,
with Spain and Italy quickly following Greece. It's likely that the
troika's final recommendations have been preordained from the
beginning: No matter whether Athens implements any austerity measures
or not, they're going to get their bailout. Spiegel

Iceland defaulted. Greece should do likewise. It's actually the BANKS that are terrified of a default. They were dumb enough to lend to a subprime country to garner all manner of fees and now they're stuck with garbage.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Do you really think there will be 4-5 billion survivors after all nukes in the world have been used? I would say you are quite the optimist!

I've had this discussion with several people during the last few
years. Each nuclear weapon kills people only in the range of 5-10
miles from the point of impact. Some people have disagreed with this,
but even if it's 20 miles, that won't change the point. China is
thought to have some 3,000 long-range missiles, many of them nuclear
weapons targeted at American cities. Even if they're all launched,
the U.S. will still function. And most of the rest of the world will
be untouched by nuclear weapons.

*** 5-Oct-12 World View -- Turkey - Syria relations continue sharp escalation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey continues shelling Syrian military positions
• Turkey's Erdogan delivers harsh speech and expands rules of engagement
• UN Security Council issues a watered-down statement on Syria
• Turkey may have captured the killers of U.S. envoy Chris Stevens
• Aron Nimzovich: 'Why must I lose to this IDIOT?'
• Spain's Rajoy continues to play games with bailout

****
**** Turkey continues shelling Syrian military positions
****


Furious Turkish PM Erdogan in a press conference on Thursday (AFP)

In a sharp escalation of tensions between Turkey and Syria, the
Turkish military shelling into Syria that began on Wednesday continued
into Thursday, as retaliatory strikes for the killing of a mother and
her three daughters and another woman by Syrian mortars that landed in
Turkey. Turkey's targets were Syrian military positions in Syria,
resulting in the deaths of an unknown number of Syrian soldiers.
Turkey has stopped shelling, but is continuing to deploy tanks and
anti aircraft missiles in Akcakale, the town where the five Turkish
citizens were killed on Wednesday. Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan delivers harsh speech and expands rules of engagement
****

Turkey's Parliament on Thursday gave authority to the government to
deploy troops in Syria or other countries if an when it finds such an
act necessary for national security. Once again, this is a sharp
escalation, since it makes it possible, with no further authorization,
for prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to order a military invasion
of Syria. This means that at the next provocation, Erdogan won't have
any excuse for hesitating.

On Thursday, Erdogan gave a harsh speech, and contradicted Syria's
claim that Syria's shelling inside Turkey was an "accident":

"We have no intention of starting a war with Syria,"

We as Turkey just want peace and security in our region. We could
never be interested in something like starting a war. The
consequences of war are plain to see in Iraq and Afghanistan.

But the Turkish Republic is a state capable of defending its
citizens and borders. Nobody should try and test our determination
on this subject."

He said that there have been many similar incidents in the past,
though this is the first with five casualties.

"Even today, we had a shell landing in Hatay city
Altinozu district.

An accident can be called 'an accident' once, twice, three times,
but four, five six times, but how is this an accident, when it
happens eight times?"

Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al-Arabiya

****
**** UN Security Council issues a watered-down statement on Syria
****

As usual, the Russians, who are as guilty as Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad for the violence going on in Syria, opposed any statement in
the United Nations Security Council that condemned Syria. It's
amazing that anything was accomplished at all, but the UNSC did issue
a watered-down statement:

"The members of the Security Council condemned in the
strongest terms the shelling by the Syrian armed forces of the
Turkish town of Akcakale, which resulted in the deaths of five
civilians, all of whom were women and children, as well as a
number of injuries. The members of the Security Council expressed
their sincere condolences to the families of the victims and to
the Government and people of Turkey.

The members of the Security Council underscored that this incident
highlighted the grave impact the crisis in Syria has on the
security of its neighbours and on regional peace and stability.
The members of the Council demanded that such violations of
international law stop immediately and are not repeated. The
members of the Security Council called on the Syrian Government to
fully respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its
neighbours.

The members of the Security Council called for
restraint."

The Russians insisted on removing a sentence in the original draft
calling the Syrian attack "a serious threat to international peace and
security." The compromise text referred instead to concerns as to the
impact of the crisis in Syria on "the security of its neighbors and on
regional peace and stability." United Nations and Reuters

****
**** Turkey may have captured the killers of U.S. envoy Chris Stevens
****

The alleged killers of U.S. envoy Chris Stevens in Benghazi, Libya,
have been detained by Turkey on Wednesday, according to unconfirmed
reports. Two Tunisian citizens accused of the murder were apprehended
on Wednesday evening by police at Istanbul Atatürk Airport while
trying to enter Turkey with fake passports. They have been taken to
the Istanbul Police Department for questioning. Hurriyet

****
**** Aron Nimzovich: 'Why must I lose to this IDIOT?'
****

In 1925 in Baden-Baden Germany, chess grandmaster Aron Nimzovich was
playing a crucial game with grandmaster Friedrich Saemisch, a game
that would decide first place. Nimzovich was the superior chess
player, but he lost to Saemisch, and as he was about to be checkmated,
he got up from the table and yelled, "Why must I lose to this IDIOT?"

That was the attitude that I saw reflected in President Obama's
sullen, resentful face during the Wednesday evening debate. I
interpreted Obama's attitude to his Gen-X contempt of Boomers. "These
Boomers are jackasses, so why should I have to debate this lying,
arrogant crook who's a danger to the world?"

I'm pretty sure that President Obama was thinking words like "liar,"
"crook," and "dangerous," because I watched MSNBC for a while after
the debate and saw these so-called newsmen use these and similar news
as they spewed out vitriol as if they were a bunch of teenage girls.

As I've written several times in the past, I consider President
Obama's failures, including his failure in Wednesday's debate, to be
the fault of his hatred of Boomers. (From 2007: "Barack Obama to Boomers: Drop dead!"
) No one can be successful for long if all his policies
are based on hatred of one-third of the population.

****
**** Spain's Rajoy continues to play games with bailout
****

European officials are in a tizzy because Spain's
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy refuses to make an official
request for a bailout, although everyone knows that it can't
be avoided. There have been reports that Rajoy was finally
going to seek a bailout this weekend. Here was his
response:

"If there is some agency, or someone, who says that
this weekend we are going to ask for a bailout, as they say, there
are two possibilities: that this agency is right and has better
information than I do, which is possible, or that is not the case,
which may also be possible."

Euro Intelligence


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
United Nations Security Council, Russia, Libya, Chris Stevens,
Aron Nimzovich, Barack Obama

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*** 6-Oct-12 World View -- Greece's democracy in danger from far right

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey issues new military threats to Syria
• Greece warns that Greece's democracy is in danger from neo-Nazi party

****
**** Greece warns that Greece's democracy is in danger from neo-Nazi party
****


Antonis Samaras

Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras that far-right activists,
including the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, have Greece teetering on the
edge of collapse Government officials were shocked on Thursday by the
unprecedented storming of Greece's defence ministry by hundreds of
protesting dockworkers – a breach of security not seen in modern
times. On Friday, Samaras lashed out at "those who don't understand
the meaning of law and order."

"The government is waging a battle on all fronts for
the nation's credibility and its future so that the sacrifices
made by Greeks aren't lost. I will not allow the country to become
a free-for-all."

On Tuesday, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel will visit Athens in
what is considered a show of support for Samaras, and a softening of
her previous hard-line position on Greece, which provoked Greek
cartoonists to portray her in a Nazi uniform. In announcing Merkel's
visit, Samaras said,

"We will continue our struggle with courage and
decisiveness for the good of this country.

I am very glad that the German chancellor has accepted my
invitation. It is very positive and we will receive her as befits
a leader of a great power and friend [of Greece]."

Samaras also urged all Greeks to work together, saying he was "sad to
see those who try to discredit the country, from all political sides."

Greece will run out of money and go bankrupt if it hasn't received its
next 31.5 billion euro bailout payment by the end of November.
Guardian and Guardian

****
**** Turkey issues new military threats to Syria
****

Turkey's prime minster Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Syria not to
make a "fatal mistake" in a speech on Friday:

"We are not interested in war, but we're not far from
war either. This nation has come to where it is today having gone
through intercontinental wars.

Those who attempt to test Turkey's deterrence, its decisiveness,
its capacity, I say here they are making a fatal
mistake."

Cabinet minister Egemen Bagis referred to Turkey's restraint when
Syria shot down a Turkish war plane in June:

"If Turkey had been a country that was interested in
going to war, when the plane was downed it could have used that as
an excuse and flattened Syria.

Thankfully Turkey's military power today is at the point where it
could destroy Syria within a few hours. But we don't have any
problem with the Syrian people"

At least two mortar bombs fired from Syria landed in farmland in
Turkey on Friday, but there are unconfirmed reports that the Syrian
regime has told its military to stay at least 10 kilometers away from
the border with Turkey. Reuters and Zaman (Istanbul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Egemen Bagis,
Greece, Antonis Samaras, Golden Dawn,
Germany, Angela Merkel

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*** 7-Oct-12 World View -- Hugo Chavez likely to win fourth term as president of Venezuela

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hugo Chavez likely to win fourth term as president of Venezuela
• Israel shoots down unmanned drone arriving from Mediterranean
• Turkey and Syria continue to exchange fire across their border
• World food prices go inexorably higher

****
**** Hugo Chavez likely to win fourth term as president of Venezuela
****


Hugo Chavez campaiging on Friday (AFP)

The vitriolicly anti-American Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez
appears to poised to win reelection on Sunday, against his principal
opponent, "moderate leftist" Henrique Capriles. Chávez has won hearts
and minds by using Venezuela's oil wealth for social programs for the
poor. Capriles has said that he would halt subsidized oil shipments
to Cuba, Belarus, Nicaragua and Syria. Venezuela has overtaken Saudi
Arabia to become number one in the world for proven oil reserves.
Chávez has announced plans to increase production and double crude
exports to Asia. His goal is to reduce world dependence on American
oil, but apparently he also wants to reduce world oil prices for
America and everyone else. In recent years Venezuelan oil production
has fallen due to poor maintenance, low investment and the loss of key
workers. Plans to open new fields have been repeatedly delayed.
The Hindu and Guardian (London)

****
**** Israel shoots down unmanned drone arriving from Mediterranean
****

An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that crossed into Israel's air space
and flew over settlements and military bases was shot down by Israel's
air force on Saturday morning. At the time that the UAV was
identified, it was unknown whether it carried an explosive weapon, but
examination of the fragments indicated that it was apparently on a
reconnaissance mission rather than an attack mission. It is unknown
where the UAV took off from, or who was responsible, although
Hizbollah is suspected. Jerusalem Post

****
**** Turkey and Syria continue to exchange fire across their border
****

Tensions between Turkey and Syria, once strong allies, continued to be
at dangerous levels on Saturday, after mortar shells from Syria landed
in rural areas of Turkey, and the Turkish army returned fire in a
retaliatory attack. The shells from Syria did not cause any Turkish
casualties, although villagers rushed out of their homes to gather at
a safer point in the village. Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan has told Syria not to test Turkey's "limits and determination"
and that his country "was not bluffing" with its warnings. Saturday
is the fourth day that Syrian shells have landed in Turkey. On
Wednesday, five people were killed. Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** World food prices go inexorably higher
****


FAO Food Price Index

Global food prices increased by 1.4% in the month from July to August,
according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Even
though oil prices are low and rice harvests are plentiful, food prices
show no signs of leveling off and falling, since they began their
average 9% per year average rise, starting in 2002. Food prices are
already at the 2008 peak that resulted in world wide food riots, and
are close to returning to their 2011 peaks that triggered the "Arab
Spring" in the Mideast. At 9% increases per year, food prices will be
at new historic highs by next summer. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, the people who survived the enormous famines of
World War II devoted their lives to making sure that it would never
happen again, and they launched the Green Revolution that produced
sharp increases in crop yields in the 1960s and 1970s. However, the
younger generations of Boomers and Gen-Xers with no personal
experience of famine allowed the Green Revolution to peter out in the
1990s. In the meantime, the Law of Diminishing Returns is reducing
the effectiveness of fertilizers and insecticides, the tools developed
for the Green Revolution, at the same time that other resources,
including groundwater and forests, are being used up. FAO and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, Henrique Capriles,
Israel, UAV, Turkey, Syria, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO Food Price Index,
Green Revolution

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*** 8-Oct-12 World View -- Surprise drone over Israel changes Mideast dynamics

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taiwan and Japan to resume fishing talks over Senkaku Islands
• China claims that the disputed islands belong to Taiwan
• Syrian Defector: Bashar al-Assad making plans to flee to Russia
• Surprise drone over Israel changes Mideast dynamics
• U.S. agrees to allow S. Korea to deploy long-range missiles

****
**** Taiwan and Japan to resume fishing talks over Senkaku Islands
****


Senkaku / Diaoyu / Diaoyutai islands

Japanese news sources are reporting that Taiwan is officially spurning
China's request for a joint China-Taiwan alliance over the disputed
East China Sea islands (Japan calls them Senkaku, China calls them
Diaoyu, Taiwan calls them Diaoyutai), and resuming talks over joint
Japan-Taiwan fishing rights around the islands, which are said to be
rich fishing grounds mainly for bluefin tuna and flame snapper.
Relations between Japan and Taiwan took a nosedive when the Japanese
government effectively nationalized the disputed islands on September
11 by purchasing them from their private Japanese owners. However,
although Taiwan and Japan have never had an easy relationship, they're
developing a closer relationship because they have a common enemy in
China. This new alliance between Japan and Taiwan is certain to be
infuriating to both the Chinese leadership and the highly
nationalistic younger Chinese generations. Yomiuri Shimbun (Tokyo) and Central News Agency (CNA, Taipei)

****
**** China claims that the disputed islands belong to Taiwan
****

The agreement between Japan and Taiwan becomes particularly significant
in view of a historical claim by Liu Xiaoming, China's
ambassador to Britain. In an article last week, he says:

"My first ambassadorial post was to Egypt. I have many
memories of this ancient and beautiful country. One is the Mena
House Hotel, which I visited many times. Situated at the foot of
the spectacular Cheops Pyramid, the hotel is the venue that
produced the famous Cairo Declaration. It was published on 27
November 1943 after discussions between the leaders of China,
Britain and the United States, and was the master plan for
rebuilding international order following the war with Nazi Germany
and Japan.

The Cairo Declaration was a laudable outcome of the war against
both Germany, with its repellent Nazism, and Japan, with its
equally repugnant military fascism. It stated in explicit terms
that: “all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such
as Manchuria, Formosa (Taiwan) and the Pescadores, shall be
restored to the Republic of China. Japan will also be expelled
from all other territories she has taken by violence and greed.”

Less than two years later the Potsdam Proclamation, released on 26
July 1945, reaffirmed that: “The terms of the Cairo Declaration
shall be carried out.” The Japanese government accepted the
Potsdam Proclamation in the Japanese Instrument of Surrender, and
pledged to faithfully fulfill its obligations stipulated in the
provisions of the Potsdam Proclamation.

All of these facts show that in accordance with the Cairo
Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and the Japanese Instrument
of Surrender, Diaoyu Dao, as affiliated islands of Taiwan, should
be returned, together with Taiwan, to China."

So China's logic is that the Senkaku/Diaoyu/Diaoyutai islands belong
to Taiwan, and Taiwan belongs to China. The problem is that Taiwan
doesn't want to belong to China, and any alliance agreement between
Taiwan and Japan is going to make the Chinese government apoplectic.
Telegraph (London)

****
**** Syrian Defector: Bashar al-Assad making plans to flee to Russia
****

According to Abdullah al-Omar, who defected in September from the
regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and is currently living in
Turkey, al-Assad has been staging terrorist bombings in order to blame
them on the opposition, and is coordinating plans with Russia to flee
to Moscow. Al-Omar worked in al-Assad's media office, which was
responsible for manufacturing facts. The following is my rough
transcription of what he said in the video:

"We were the team that faked the facts. The regime
uses deceptions to control people's minds, and we used people who
were good at perjury.

Many of the big bombings that occurred in Damascus - the regime
blamed them on terrorist groups, but they were the work of the
regime. The intelligence agencies did them, in coordination with
the president's office. We knew hours in advance that they were
going to happen, and cameras were set up in advance to take live
video feed that could be sent to the international tv channels.
They were especially busy when the Arab League observers visited
Damascus. In the bombings, they used prisoners and detainees and
dead bodies to decorate the blast locations.

The July 18'th blast that killed four of al-Assad's security
advisors were done by two insiders at the National Security
Office, in coordination with opposition fighters. The bomb went
off ten minutes early. If it had gone off at the right time,
Bashar would have been killed.

The al-Assad regime knows that it can't stay in power, and is
making plans to flee to Russia. Russia is preparing 300
apartments for the extended al-Assad family. Within 60 days,
they'll start fleeing. Bashar will be the last to go, after he
receives international guarantees that he won't be prosecuted for
war crimes."

Al-Jazeera

****
**** Surprise drone over Israel changes Mideast dynamics
****

The drone, or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), that crossed into
Israel's air space from the Mediterranean on Saturday and was shot
down by the Israeli air force (IAF) is now believed to have been
developed by Iran and launched by the terrorist group Hizbollah,
operating out of Lebanon. The surprise is that Iran even has such
advanced technology. The IAF spotted the drone because it was flying
very high for surveillance purposes. It's not known whether the IAF
would have spotted it if it had been flying much lower, and was armed
with missiles for attack. If not, then Israel has no known reliable
defense to this kind of attack. Ynet (Tel Aviv) and Slate

****
**** U.S. agrees to allow S. Korea to deploy long-range missiles
****

Under a 1979 agreement with the U.S., South Korea has been prohibited
from deploying long-range ballistic missiles with a range longer than
300 km, or drones with a payload exceeding 500 kg. On Saturday,
S. Korean announced a deal with the U.S. permitting them to extend the
range of its missiles up to 800 km, and the payload of its drones up
to 2.5 tons. The new limits would allow S. Korean missiles to strike
anywhere in North Korea, or even to reach Beijing. However, the South
Koreans say that there are still enough restrictions imposed that
South Korea could still not defend itself effectively against a North
Korean attack. Chosun Ilbo (Seoul) and Xinhua



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, China, Taiwan,
Senkaku, Diaoyu, Diaoyutai, Liu Xiaoming,
Syria, Abdullah al-Omar, Bashar al-Assad, Russia,
Israel, Lebanon, Hizbollah, Iran,
South Korea, North Korea

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*** 9-Oct-12 World View -- Mitt Romney advocates sending weapons to Syrian opposition fighters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive security planned for Merkel's visit to Athens Greece
• Supporters of alleged rapist Julian Assange ordered to forfeit $150,000 bail money
• Mitt Romney advocates sending weapons to Syrian opposition fighters
• Thousands of people in Mideast threatened with losing Canadian residency rights

****
**** Massive security planned for Merkel's visit to Athens Greece
****


Merkel depicted in as Nazi in Greek newspaper Democracy, February 2012

Greece's security forces are mounting the biggest security operation
in Athens since the 1999 visit of Bill Clinton, in preparation for the
visit on Tuesday of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. There have been
large, angry protests in Athens against the Germans for forcing
austerity measures on Greeks, and Merkel herself has been portrayed
as a Nazi in uniform. According to Alexis Tsipras, head
of Greece's left-wing Syriza political alliance:

"She does not come to support Greece, which her
policies have brought to the brink. She comes to save the corrupt,
disgraced and servile political system. We will give her the
welcome she deserves."

When Merkel arrives, Greece's Prime Minister Antonis Samaras plans to
beg Merkel for her support for delaying austerity measures for two
years, and for continued bailout payments even if Greece can't meet
its existing commitments. Without another bailout payment, Greece
will go bankrupt in November. Spiegel and Kathimerini

****
**** Supporters of alleged rapist Julian Assange ordered to forfeit $150,000 bail money
****

Westminster magistrates court in London on Monday ordered the
supporters and backers of alleged rapist Julian Assange to forfeit
£93,500 ($150,000) in bail money, because Assange did not fulfill the
conditions of his bail. Two women in Sweden have charged the
Wikileaks founder with raping them, but Assange has sought asylum in
the Ecuadorean embassy in London, claiming that the two Swedish women
are lying about being raped, and that the whole thing is a conspiracy
by the women, the Swedish authorities and the American authorities to
trick him into being sent to America, so that American officials can
kill him. The Assange supporters have 30 days to pay the $150,000 to
the court.

As far as I know, not a single feminist, women's group, rape victim
support group or battered women's shelter has spoken out in support of
either Swedish rape victim woman, or against her alleged rapist.
Guardian

****
**** Mitt Romney advocates sending weapons to Syrian opposition fighters
****


Mitt Romney at VMI on Monday

In Monday's foreign policy speech to the Virginia Military Institute,
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney advocated providing
weapons to Syria's opposition:

"And we must persuade our friends and allies to place
similar stipulations on their aid. In Syria, I will work with our
partners to identify and organize those members of the opposition
who share our values and ensure they obtain the arms they need to
defeat Assad’s tanks, helicopters, and fighter jets. Iran is
sending arms to Assad because they know his downfall would be a
strategic defeat for them.

We should be working no less vigorously with our international
partners to support the many Syrians who would deliver that defeat
to Iran—rather than sitting on the sidelines. It is essential that
we develop influence with those forces in Syria that will one day
lead a country that sits at the heart of the Middle
East."

This is potentially a dangerous policy. Arms given to the Syrian
opposition may very well end up in the hands of al-Qaeda linked
terrorists. One of the major reasons that the Russias are opposed to
any outside help to the Syrian opposition is the fear that any
unguarded weapons will make their way to Islamist terror groups in the
North Caucasus, just as large warehouses of weapons in Libya have made
their way into al-Qaeda linked terror groups across northern Africa.
Daily Beast

****
**** Thousands of people in Mideast threatened with losing Canadian residency rights
****

Canadian immigration officials have announced a crackdown on
immigration and residency fraud, targeting more than 10,000 people
suspected of committing residency fraud. Nearly 5,000 of them have
permanent residency status, and 3,100 are naturalized Canadians whose
citizenship is being revoked. Most of those affected are from the
Middle East. Canadian immigration law requires new immigrants to live
in the country for a minimum of three years continuously before
applying for citizenship, but many people get around this requirement
by committing fraud, fabricating fake paperwork to prove residency.
criminal investigations have found that a family of five may pay
upwards of 25,000 Canadian dollars over four or more years to create
the illusion of Canadian residence. The National (UAE)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Antonis Samaras, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Syriza, Alexis Tsipras, Julian Assange, Mitt Romney, Syria,
Canada

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*** 10-Oct-12 World View -- IMF warns of an 'alarmingly high' risk of deep global slowdown

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• German Chancellor Merkel greeted with hate-filled protests in Athens Greece
• Nato will defend Turkey as border tension with Syria escalates
• Turkey's politics become bitterly sectarian
• IMF warns of an 'alarmingly high' risk of deep global slowdown

****
**** German Chancellor Merkel greeted with hate-filled protests in Athens Greece
****


Angela Merkel greeted with Nazi salutes and violence in Athens (Getty)

Memories of World War II were evoked on Tuesday when German Chancellor
Angela Merkel visited Athens Greece as a show of support for Greece
and the government of prime minister Antonis Samaras, and she was
faced with rock-throwing protests by tens of thousands of Greeks
portraying Merkel as a Nazi war criminal. Merkel has become one of
the most hated figures in Greece, as she is being blamed for the harsh
austerity measures that Greeks are facing. Police used teargas and
stun grenades at a crowd threatening to swarm into the Parliament
building, throwing rocks and petrol bombs. Merkel's voice was
strained with anxiety as she provided encouragement for the Greece and
the Greek government, and acknowledged that Greece had made a great
deal of painful progress since 2010. Merkel seemed to feel that
Samaras was someone she could work with. However, the basic situation
is unchanged, in that there is still substantial opposition in Germany
and Europe against giving Greece any more leeway in meeting its
austerity obligations. Kathimerini and Independent (London)

****
**** Nato will defend Turkey as border tension with Syria escalates
****

Cross-border shelling between Turkey and Syria continued for a sixth
day on Tuesday, and Turkey has been shifting heavy artillery units,
tank battalions, missile batteries and troops to the border, with F-16
jet fleets shifted from western Anatolia bases to the southeast,
warships setting sail for the Mediterranean with wartime rations.
According to a Turkish military expert:

"The Syrian regime has very little left to lose. If
Turkey retaliates more strongly next time and kills Syrians, then
that would only add a few more to the casualties on the Syrian
side. But if another shell from Syria side kills more Turks,
civilians or soldiers, God forbid, then the Turkish government,
with Parliament’s authority in its hand, and all that troop
buildup, may be under further pressure to act."

Nato's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced on Tuesday
that Nato, of which Turkey is a member, is prepared to defend Turkey
from Syria, if that should become necessary:

"We have all plans in place to protect and defend
Turkey, but we do hope that it will not be necessary. We do hope
that all parties involved will do their utmost to avoid an
escalation of the crisis and focus on finding a political solution
to the conflict.

I strongly regret that so far the Security Council has failed in
finding an agreement on a legally-binding resolution that could
send such a strong message to the Syrian leadership."

It's believed that Iran and Russia are supplying both arms and
military advisers to the Bashar al-Assad regime, while Qatar and Saudi
Arabia have been supply small arms to al-Assad's oppositions.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and VOA

****
**** Turkey's politics become bitterly sectarian
****

The situation in Turkey's politics are becoming increasingly bitter
and sectarian as a result of the situation in Syria. Kemal
Kiliçdaroglu, the leader of the principal opposition party, Republican
People’s Party (CHP), called Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu an
"idiot," and suggested that he was opposed to the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad because the latter is part of the Alawite
sect, practicing an offshoot of Shia Islam:

"We don’t want war. We don’t want our sons’ blood to
be shed in Arabian deserts. ... We have marked a historic event by
saying ‘no’ to the motion [authorizing the military for
cross-border operations]. The CHP has become the hope of all
mothers and fathers. We will not disappoint them. ...

How can we describe the policy that put Turkey into this
situation? Is this ‘strategic depth,’ or strategic blindness? The
process that resulted in Turkey’s becoming part of such a
meaningless balance comes from a foreign minister whose
incompetence is known by the entire world. You don’t need deep
knowledge to know that. You have to be a real idiot to do
that."

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sharply rebuked Kiliçdaroglu:

" “It is not possible to understand how the CHP has
become blind due to the love it has for [Syrian President Bashar
al-] Assad. The people getting killed [as a result of the Syrian
mortar strikes] are our citizens. They are our people, aren't
they?

Were you expecting us to remain silent, Mr. [Kemal] Kiliçdaroglu?
You might tolerate such [attacks], but we will not. ...

I want to remind this to Mr. Kiliçdaroglu: the issue of sect has
never been influential in outlining Turkish foreign policy. Most
of those who fell from power along the period dubbed ‘Arab Spring’
are Sunni.

We haven’t supported oppressors and dictators because they are
Sunni. Both a dictator and an oppressor may come out of a
Sunni. Wherever they come from, we are against all of
them."

Hurriyet (Ankara) and Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** IMF warns of an 'alarmingly high' risk of deep global slowdown
****

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday downgraded its economic
projections and warned of an "alarmingly high" risk of a serious
global slowdown because of fiscal problems in the U.S. and Europe.
The risk for a deep global economic slowdown next year is "alarmingly
high" because of several short term factors, the IMF said. The most
serious are a further deepening of the European debt crisis, failure
in Washington to avert large tax hikes and government spending cuts
looming in January, and another spike in oil prices caused by Middle
East tensions. "A key issue is whether the global economy is just
hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a
slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a more
lasting component," the IMF said. LA Times and IMF World Economic Outlook (PDF)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Angela Merkel, Greece, Antonis Samaras,
Nato, Syria, Turkey, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Bashar al-Assad,
Ahmet Davutoglu, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
International Monetary Fund, IMF

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*** 11-Oct-12 World View -- Turkey intercepts Syrian passenger plane traveling from Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey intercepts Syrian passenger plane traveling from Russia
• U.S. troops sent to Jordan for defense from Syria
• Greece's austerity VAT tax hike has shut down restaurants
• 94% of Turkish people want Obama to win presidential election

****
**** Turkey intercepts Syrian passenger plane traveling from Russia
****


Syrian passenger plane forced to land in Ankara (Reuters)

Turkish F16 jets forced a Syrian passenger plane, traveling from
Moscow to Damascus over Turkey's airspace, to land at Ankara airport
on Wednesday on suspicion that it may be carrying weapons. As a
result of the inspections, Turkey found military communications
equipment and missile parts presumably intended for Syria's military.
The military equipment was confiscated, and the plane was permitted to
continue its trip to Damascus with all 37 passengers. Turkey has been
massing troops and equipment on the border with Syria, where the two
countries have been exchanging fire for a week. On Wednesday morning,
Turkey banned its own civilian airplanes from entering Syrian
airspace, in order to prevent any reprisals for today's action.
Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** U.S. troops sent to Jordan for defense from Syria
****

The NY Times, whose editorial policy is to harm the U.S. as much as
possible by revealing as many military and national security secrets
as possible, is reporting that the U.S. military has secretly sent a
task force of more than 150 planners and other specialists to Jordan
for three purposes:

• Help Jordan's armed forces handle the increasing flood of Syrian
  refugees.
  
• Defend against Syria's chemical weapons if the government loses control
  of them.
  
• Be prepared to participate in a larger regional war, if it becomes
  necessary.

The possibility of setting up a militarized buffer zone between Syria
and Jordan is being discussed, but is not being planned at this time.
Some 150,000 to 200,000 Syrian refugees have already crossed the
border into Jordan, and Jordan has said that they don't have the
resources to handle all of them. New York Times and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Greece's austerity VAT tax hike has shut down restaurants
****

As part of its austerity requirements, Greece raised the value-added
tax (VAT) on food catering chains to 23%. During the 12-month period,
income in the sector fell 40% from 3 billion euros to just 1.8 billion
euros, 4,000 restaurants have shut down, and about 30,000 employees
have lost their jobs. The industry is asking that the VAT be lowered
to 9%. Kathimerini

****
**** 94% of Turkish people want Obama to win presidential election
****


President Obama

A recent survey has revealed that 94% of Turks are backing current US
President Barack Obama against Republican presidential nominee Mitt
Romney in the presidential race. The survey was conducted in 32
countries. Obama was selected over Romney in most of the countries
surveyed. Iceland, Holland and Portugal were the countries with the
highest level of support for Obama. The only country where Romney was
ranked higher was Israel. Zaman (Istanbul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Russia, Jordan,
Greece

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*** 12-Oct-12 World View -- Russia and Turkey trade accusations over diverted passenger plan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia accuses Turkey of 'beating up' crew members on intercepted Syrian passenger plane
• Turkey says that intercepted Syrian passenger plane contained Russian munitions
• Tensions grow between Russia and Turkey
• Hizbollah chief Nasrallah admits to sending the mysterious drone over Israel

****
**** Russia accuses Turkey of 'beating up' crew members on intercepted Syrian passenger plane
****


Jasem Kaser, engineer on the intercepted Syrian Air passenger plane, showing where he was beaten. (AFP)

Passengers aboard the Syrian passenger plane that was diverted on
Wednesday while traveling from Moscow to Damascus said that Turkish
security forces forced the crew and passengers to sign fraudulent
papers about the incident. According to a hostess:

"Four people onboard have been beaten up, two crew and
two passengers, as they tried to force them to sign documents. We
don’t know what these papers are about. We are scared for the fate
of the captain. He was taken away and threatened with arrest if he
does not sign an emergency landing paper."

The plane captain was quoted as saying, "either I sign the document
that I made an emergency landing or they are taking me hostage."
Russia and Syria are denying that there was any military equipment on
the plane, and characterized Turkey's actions as "piracy." Russia Today

****
**** Turkey says that intercepted Syrian passenger plane contained Russian munitions
****

Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the Syrian passenger
plane that was diverted on Wednesday while traveling from Moscow to Damascus
was carrying Russian munitions, presumably intended for the army of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad:

"These were equipment and ammunitions that were being
sent from a Russian agency ... to the Syrian Defense
Ministry. Their examination is continuing and the necessary
(action) will follow. ...

As you know, defense industry equipment or weapons, ammunitions
and such equipment cannot be carried on passenger planes. It is
against international rules for such things to pass through our
air space."

Erdogan refused to say where he got the intelligence tip that the
passenger plane was carrying military gear: "As you will appreciate,
those who gave the tip, which establishments, these things cannot be
disclosed." However, I heard one analyst on Thursday say that he
believed the tip came from Nato or from American intelligence.
AP

****
**** Tensions grow between Russia and Turkey
****

The conflict in Syria has already significantly raised tensions
between Russia and Turkey, as shown by Russian president Vladimir
Putin's cancellation of a Monday visit to Turkey shows, but the
intercepted Syrian plane incident is liable to threaten the entire
relationship. At the same time, Turkey and the U.S. have accused Iran
of shipping weapons to the Bashar al-Assad regime, and have accused
Iraq of allowing Iran's weapons to reach Syria by traveling through
Turkey.

These events confirm the trend that Generational Dynamics has been
predicting for seven or eight years that the Mideast is headed for a
major realignment as we approach the Clash of Civilizations world war.
In that war, the West will be allied with India, Russia, Iran and
Israel, while China will be allied with Pakistan, Turkey and the Sunni
countries. Spiegel

****
**** Hizbollah chief Nasrallah admits to sending the mysterious drone over Israel
****

Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah of Lebanon's terrorist group Hizbollah
confirmed Western suspicions by announcing, in a televised speech on Thursday,
that Hizbollah had dispatched the drone that flew over Israel last week:

"First of all, regarding the drone, we witnessed
unique operation in the history of Lebanon and the region. The
Resistance claims responsibility for the operation. The Resistance
in Lebanon sent a sophisticated reconnaissance drone from Lebanon
toward the [Mediterranean] Sea, which it crossed for hundreds of
kilometers, before it entered [Israeli airspace] and hovered over
many important locations before it was discovered by the Israeli
air force. Today, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu held
Hezbollah responsible for [sending] the drone.

The drone was not Russian made, but Iranian. It was [assembled] in
Lebanon. [It] took off in the specified trajectory for hundreds
kilometers and arrived in an area close to [Israel’s] Dimona
[nuclear] plant. As for the Israeli [claims] that they discovered
it over the sea and [forced it over] land, I say they are lying to
their people. ...

We named the operation after martyr Hussein Ayoub, who was the
first [Hezbollah] expert in this field. We want to name the drone
“Ayoub” [which is also the name] of our Prophet."

Now Lebanon

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Turkey, Syria, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Iran, Bashar al-Assad, Clash of Civilizations world war,
Lebanon, Hizbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah

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