The pace is increasing. The Ottoman faces an Assyrian / Persian / Russo-mongol Axis. The Chinese form the second Eastern wave. NATO is still relevant. The locus moves from the Fulda Gap to the Caucasus and other nearby theaters.

*** 13-Oct-12 World View -- U.S. preparing for worst-case chemical weapons scenario in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. preparing for worst-case chemical weapons scenario in Syria
• U.N. Security Council passes resolution on plan for military intervention in Mali
• Mali extremists compile lists of unwed mothers
• Bizarre Nobel Peace Prize selection goes to 'European Union'

****
**** U.S. preparing for worst-case chemical weapons scenario in Syria
****


Military training camp in Jordan where U.S. allies are training Jordanian commandos in chemical weapons defense (AP)

The 150 U.S. troops that have been sent to Jordan are preparing for a
worst-case scenario involving Syria's large arsenal of chemical
weapons. The depots are well guarded by the forces of the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and they're protected from the air
by Russian-built anti-aircraft defenses. However, a major fear is
that a collapse of the al-Assad regime would allow these chemical
weapons to fall into the hands of al-Qaeda linked terrorists, in the
same way that the Muammar Gaddafi's huge stores of weapons fell into
the hands of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The U.S. is
proceeding cautiously, applying lessons learned from faulty
intelligence about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq that led the
U.S. to the 2003 Iraq ground invasion, only to discover that there
were no WMDs after all. LA Times

****
**** U.N. Security Council passes resolution on plan for military intervention in Mali
****

The United Nations Security Council on Friday unanimously passed a
resolution giving West African nations 45 days to offer details of a
plan for international military intervention in Mali, where al-Qaeda
linked terrorists Ansar Dine have taken control of the northern 2/3rds
of the country. The Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS) has offered to send a force of 3,000 soldiers to stabilize
Mali when the U.N. gives its approval. Concern is growing that
entrenched control of Mali by al-Qaeda linked forces would turn Mali
into a failed state like Afghanistan. France is leading the West in
attempting to gain U.N.S.C. support for military intervention, because
France fears terrorist attacks from entrenched al-Qaeda control of
Mali. VOA

****
**** Mali extremists compile lists of unwed mothers
****

According to a senior U.N. official, al-Qaeda linked terrorists in
northern Mali are compiling lists of unmarried mothers, raising fears
of punishments such as stoning, amputations and executions.
Extremists have conducted public executions, amputations, floggings
and other inhuman and degrading punishments. CNN

****
**** Bizarre Nobel Peace Prize selection goes to 'European Union'
****

It's been years since the Nobel Peace Prize was related in any way to
reality. Bizarre choices of Nobel prizes in the recent past include
Paul Krugman (economics), Al Gore (peace) and Barack Obama (peace) --
ideological choices that thrilled the far left, but choices of people
who really haven't accomplished much of anything. On Friday, the
Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the "European Union," a choice that
appears to continue the pattern of high farce. In Europe, there are
plenty of people who are "anti-EU," and plenty of people who are
"pro-EU". Whether you liked the prize selection depended on which
side you were on, but nobody seriously believed that the choice made
much sense, especially nowadays, when the European Union is coming
apart at the seams. Defenders of the choice claimed that the decision
to form a European Union prevented a new war between Germany and
France, a claim that's totally fatuous. NATO deserves the prize more
than the European Union does. And on top of everything else, the
Nobel Prize committee resides in Norway, a European country which is,
however, NOT part of the European Union, since its population is
opposed to joining. This may well be because Norway has become
wealthy because of North Sea oil, and may not wish to share its wealth
with Greece and Spain, a decision that Germany and Austria may wish
they had taken as well. Spiegel


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jordan,
Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Mali, Afghanistan,
Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS,
Nobel Peace Prize, Norway

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*** 14-Oct-12 World View -- Huawei scandal exposes potential 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor' from China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Defense Secretary Panetta warns of 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor'
• House Intelligence Committee warns against doing business with Huawei and ZTE
• China continues economic warfare against Japan over Senkaku islands

****
**** Defense Secretary Panetta warns of 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor'
****


Huawei office in Wuhan, China

In a speech on Friday, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta described
described the dangers of cyberwar. His remarks were timely, coming
just after the House Intelligence Committee issued a report warning of
potential cyberattacks through devices sold by the Chinese companies
Huawei and ZTE. Panetta said:

"These attacks mark a significant escalation of the
cyber threat and they have renewed concerns about still more
destructive scenarios that could unfold.

For example, we know that foreign cyber actors are probing
America's critical infrastructure networks. They are targeting the
computer control systems that operate chemical, electricity and
water plants and those that guide transportation throughout this
country.

We know of specific instances where intruders have successfully
gained access to these control systems.

We also know that they are seeking to create advanced tools to
attack these systems and cause panic and destruction and even the
loss of life.

Let me explain how this could unfold. An aggressor nation or
extremist group could use these kinds of cyber tools to gain
control of critical switches. They could, for example, derail
passenger trains or even more dangerous, derail trains loaded with
lethal chemicals.

They could contaminate the water supply in major cities or
shutdown the power grid across large parts of the country.

The most destructive scenarios involve cyber actors launching
several attacks on our critical infrastructure at one time, in
combination with a physical attack on our country. Attackers
could also seek to disable or degrade critical military systems
and communication networks.

The collective result of these kinds of attacks could be a cyber
Pearl Harbor; an attack that would cause physical destruction and
the loss of life. In fact, it would paralyze and shock the nation
and create a new, profound sense of vulnerability.

As director of the CIA and now Secretary of Defense, I have
understood that cyber attacks are every bit as real as the more
well-known threats like terrorism, nuclear weapons proliferation
and the turmoil that we see in the Middle East."

It's pretty clear that Panetta was referring to an attack by China. China
is thought to have some 3,000 long-range missiles, many of them nuclear
weapons targeted at American cities, has developed missiles specifically
designed to target American aircraft carriers, and has been conducting cyberwar
at the business espionage level for years. Panetta is saying that a full-scale
attack is coming, and that when it comes it will paralyze the nation.

His phrase "create a new, profound sense of vulnerability" might be an allusion
to the words of Carl von Clausewitz in his 1832 book "On War," in which he
describes what happens to the initial war euphoria of a country when it suffers
its first defeat:

"The effect of defeat outside the army -- on the
people and on the government -- is a sudden collapse of the
wildest expectations, and total destruction of self-confidence.
The destruction of these feelings creates a vacuum, and that
vacuum gets filled by a fear that grows corrosively, leading to
total paralysis. It's a blow to the whole nervous system of the
losing side, as if caused by an electric charge. This effect may
appear to a greater or lesser degree, but it's never completely
missing. Then, instead of rushing to repair the misfortune with a
spirit of determination, everyone fears that his efforts will be
futile; or he does nothing, leaving everything to
Fate."

In other words, it's like the reaction to 9/11 a million times over.
Dept. of Defense and Carl von Clausewitz

****
**** House Intelligence Committee warns against doing business with Huawei and ZTE
****

On Monday, the House Intelligence Committee issued a report warning
government agencies and private companies of the substantial risks of
doing business with Chinese companies Huawei [pronounced WAH way]
Technologies Company and ZTE Corporation because of their links to the
Chinese Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). After
a year long investigation, the committee said that Huawei and ZTE
provided incomplete, contradictory, and evasive responses to the
Committee’s core concerns. According to the report:

"Despite hours of interviews, extensive and repeated
document requests, a review of open-source information, and an
open hearing with witnesses from both companies, the Committee
remains unsatisfied with the level of cooperation and candor
provided by each company. Neither company was willing to provide
sufficient evidence to ameliorate the Committee’s
concerns. Neither company was forthcoming with detailed
information about its formal relationships or regulatory
interaction with Chinese authorities. Neither company provided
specific details about the precise role of each company’s Chinese
Communist Party Committee. Furthermore, neither company provided
detailed information about its operations in the United
States. Huawei, in particular, failed to provide thorough
information about its corporate structure, history, ownership,
operations, financial arrangements, or management. Most
importantly, neither company provided sufficient internal
documentation or other evidence to support the limited answers
they did provide to Committee investigators.

During the investigation, the Committee received information from
industry experts and current and former Huawei employees
suggesting that Huawei, in particular, may be violating United
States laws. These allegations describe a company that has not
followed United States legal obligations or international
standards of business behavior. The Committee will be referring
these allegations to Executive Branch agencies for further review,
including possible investigation."

Huawei and ZTE's primary business is selling high-end computer
networking switches and other equipment used by cell phone carriers,
Internet service providers, and other companies to run communications
networks. American companies like Cisco sell similar equipment, but the
Chinese versions are much cheaper, supposedly because of cheaper labor
in China. There are Huawei and ZTE equipment used in internet switches
and phone switches around the world. The fear is that the Chinese have
installed "backdoor" capabilities into this equipment so that, at the
appropriate times, the PLA could send out commands over the internet telling
these devices to spy or to shut down, or to cause the kind of disasters
that Panetta outlined in his "Cyberwar Pearl Harbor" warning.

I'd now like to address a comment to those morons who claim that this
idea is so fantastical that it could never be done, or that if it was
done it would be easily detected through extensive testing of these
devices, such as what is already being done on a regular basis.

Anyone who, like myself, has spent part of his career developing
chip-level operating system software for embedded systems can tell you
that not only is this doable, it's not even particularly difficult for
someone with the right skills. A backdoor capability would not be
detected by testing because it would be designed not to do anything
until a particular encrypted command was sent to it to enable it. The
backdoor capability could be hidden so deeply in the chip structure of
a device that even other programmers working on the same project would
not be aware of it. And of course the company managers might not even
be aware of it, especially the president of the American division of
the Chinese company.

Now, having said that can be done easily, there's no doubt that it HAS
been done. The PLA has been preparing for war with the U.S. in every
possible way, as I've been writing about for years. In addition to
the forces I've already described, China is has stationed military
forces in the South China Sea, taking possession of islands that
belong to other countries; they've declare economic warfare against
Japan for the same reason; they have thousands of missiles ready to
launch against Taiwan; they have large military deployments in western
Tibet ready to invade India; and they've demonstrated a capability to
destroy American communications and GPS satellites.

What would be absolutely fantastical is to think that after China has
made all these war preparations in other areas, the Chinese haven't
bothered to do the easiest thing of all: Implement backdoors in
internet and phone switches, and subsidize the equipment so that it
can be sold cheaply and in high volume to companies and governments
around the world. One can be absolutely certain that this has
happened. House Intelligence Committee and Technology Review

****
**** China continues economic warfare against Japan over Senkaku islands
****

For years, people have been telling me that the predictions of war
by Generational Dynamics are certainly wrong because businessmen would prevent
these wars from occurring and harming their businesses. This was always a
moronic argument, but the conflict between China over the
Senkaku/Diayou islands emphasizes what really happens. China's levels
of nationalism and xenophobia towards the Japanese have reached
astronomical levels. Even the businessmen are highly nationalistic,
and believe (or are forced to believe) that it's their patriotic
duty to give up some business for the good of the country. Thus,
China has been conducting an economic war against Japan: Japanese
car sales in China re in free fall; Japanese speakers in China are
booed or threatened; Chinese tourists in droves are canceling trips
to Japan; China's government has encouraged riots to smash Japanese
cars, Japanese businesses and Japanese manufacturing plants in China.

Contrary to the naive criticisms that have been leveled at me and
Generational Dynamics over the years, wars are not prevented because
they're bad for business. To the contrary, business ties are used as
economic warfare, usually in preparation for military warfare.
AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Leon Panetta, Cyberwar Pearl Harbor,
China, Carl von Clausewitz,
Huawei Technologies Company, ZTE Corporation,
South China Sea, Japan, Senkaku Islands, Diayou Islands

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*** 15-Oct-12 World View -- Possible Nato invasion of Syria revives Iraq's WMDs debate

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mali militants may be responsible for 'accidental' shooting of Mauritania's president
• A Nato invasion of Syria becomes increasingly plausible
• Syria's chemical weapons revive the debate of Iraq's WMDs

****
**** Mali militants may be responsible for 'accidental' shooting of Mauritania's president
****


Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz (Reuters)

Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz is recovering from a
gunshot wound in a Paris hospital on Sunday where he was flown after
he was "accidentally" shot by a Mauritanian army unit that
misidentified his automobile convoy. However, unnamed security
sources say that the attacker was an unknown gunman who "directly
targeted" Aziz. Aziz is considered an ally of France in the war
against Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and has been targeted
by AQIM in the past. His support is considered essential in the
looming fight to recover northern Mali from al-Qaeda linked
terrorists. AFP

****
**** A Nato invasion of Syria becomes increasingly plausible
****


Turkey's armored vehicles deployed to the Syrian border early this month (AA)

With American, British and Turkish troops and military equipment
massing on the borders of Syria, the possibility of a joint military
action in Syria by all three Nato members appears to be increasingly
plausible. 150 American troops are in Jordan to help train the
Jordanians learn how to defend against a chemical weapons attack from
Syria, if one occurs. On the Syrian border farther north, British
military officers are assessing how to defend Jordan from rockets that
are constantly falling from across the border. On Turkey's border
with Syria, Turkish forces have been exchanging fire with Syrians, and
officials have threatened more robust action if the shelling from
Syria into Turkey doesn't stop. Gulf News / AP

****
**** Syria's chemical weapons revive the debate of Iraq's WMDs
****

A major ideological battle is starting to erupt over the question of
whether Syria's chemical weapons were sent from Iraq by Saddam Hussein
just prior to the American ground invasion in 2003. It's known that
Iraq had WMDs in the 1980s and 1990s, and most intelligence services
around the world believed that Saddam continued to do so in 2003. It
was fear and anxiety of Saddam's WMDs that triggered the 2003 ground
invasion. (See "The Iraq war may be related to the bombing
of Hiroshima and Nagasaki." from
2008.) But the ground invasion failed to find any WMDs, leading to an
ideological argument over whether the intelligence reports should have
been believed. (This is an ironic discussion, since if it hadn't been
for the ground invasions, we presumably still wouldn't know whether
Saddam was developing more WMDs, and we, Iran and Israel would be
totally panicked about the possibility.)

So the question of what happened to Saddam's WMDs has never been
answered. One theory is that Saddam sent them to Syria, placing them
under the control of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. James
Clapper, the current Director of National Intelligence in the Obama
administration, wrote in October 2003 that he believed, based on
classified satellite imagery, that Saddam had sent the WMDs to Syria,
and perhaps to other countries as well. These may be part of
the chemical weapons stockpiles that al-Assad has today. It's known
that al-Assad is developing other WMDs, particularly after the Israeli
Air Force destroyed Syria's nuclear facility in September 2007.

So the whole situation is full of ironies. The only reason we know
for sure that Saddam didn't have WMDs is because of the 2003 ground
invasion. But now we don't know what happened to the WMDs that he
previously had, or whether he transferred them to Syria.
NY Times (2003) and Daily Beast (July 2012)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mauritania, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz,
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Mali,
Nato, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jordan, Turkey,
Iraq, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, James Clapper

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*** 16-Oct-12 World View -- England and Scotland agree to a referendum on Scottish independence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• England and Scotland agree to a referendum on Scottish independence
• European negotiations for Greece bailout will miss another deadline
• Germany does U-turn and rules out 'Staatsbankrott' for Greece

****
**** England and Scotland agree to a referendum on Scottish independence
****


Alex Salmond (L) and David Cameron who, we are told, totally despise each other

What is being described as a "historic agreement," Britain's prime
minister David Cameron, and head of the Scottish Nationalist Party
(SNP) Alex Salmond signed a deal agreeing to allow Scots to make an
"irrevocable" vote in October 2014 to decide whether Scotland should
become independent of the United Kingdom. Both England and Scotland
are now committed to respecting this decision, whichever side wins.

Many Americans think that all the people in that corner of the
Atlantic are all "English," but in fact the English and the Scots are
as different as Irish Protestants and Catholics, or as Sunni and Shia
Syrians. Scotland and England have gone through a number of periods
of unity and disunity for hundreds of years.

The Battle of Bannockburn, on June 24, 1314, was a great victory for
Scottish forces against superior English forces. It was the climax of
the First War of Scottish Independence, and established Scotland as an
independent nation. Scotland and England fought against each other in
a number of subsequent wars, including the War of the Roses (1459-87),
and the Armada war with Spain (1588). The most explosive war that
followed Scottish independence was the English Civil War (1640-49),
that climaxed with the beheading of the English King in 1649. There
followed a generational Recovery Era where Britain had no King, but
was actually ruled by a military dictator, Oliver Cromwell, bringing
Scotland under English control, until a new King was crowned in 1661.
During the generational Awakening era in the 1660s and 1670s, Scotland
began demonstrating against English control, culminating in the
Awakening era climax, the so-called "Glorious Revolution" of 1689,
making the Scottish Parliament independent once again. In 1701, the
next generational Crisis war began, the War of the Spanish Succession,
which allied Scotland and France against England. Miraculously,
England defeated the French army in the Battle of Blenheim in 1704,
and then again in the explosive and tumultuous climactic Battle of
Malplaquet in 1709. After France's defeat at Blenheim, Scotland was
finally brought to heel, and England and Scotland signed the "Acts of
Union" between the two countries, under a single king or queen,
forming the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707.

Now, 305 years later, with the world going deeper into a generational
Crisis era, Scotland is becoming as nationalistic as China or Japan or
a number of other countries, and demanding independence once again.
However, once the Clash of Civilizations world war begins, I would
expect Scotland and England to unite once more to fight the common
enemy. Scotsman

****
**** European negotiations for Greece bailout will miss another deadline
****

Negotiations for the next bailout payment to Greece are collapsing
again, making it unlikely that a Thursday deadline for an agreement
will be met. It had been hoped that an agreement would be reached in
time for the European leaders' summit on Thursday, but agreement on
austerity measures and structural reforms are out of reach.
Negotiations between Greece and the leaders of the EU "troika" of
organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the
European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
-- have been on again - off again for weeks (actually, for years),
missing one deadline after another. Each new bailout payment has been
made at the last moment. Last year I proposed the "Kick the Can
Theory" for the European financial crisis. It says that if you want
to know what's going to happen, just assume that European leaders will
look for a way to "kick the can down the road," meaning that they'll
do the minimum possible to postpone the crisis a little longer, to
prevent a current disaster without fixing the problem, so that the
crisis will recur in worse form weeks or months later. The Kick the
Can Theory has been right every time so far, and every bailout payment
has been made at the last minute, irrespective of Greece's
commitments. One way or another, we expect the same kind of thing to
happen again, in time to prevent Greece from going bankrupt during
November. Kathimerini

****
**** Germany does U-turn and rules out 'Staatsbankrott' for Greece
****

In fact, the can-kicking decision may already have been made.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has done a 180 degree turn
from his previous strong opposition to extending a new bailout to Greece
unless all the austerity commitments have been fulfilled. On Monday,
Schäuble said:

"It will not happen that there will be a
'Staatsbankrott' in Greece. Greece has had to take a lot of very
serious reforms [and an increasing majority of the population]
does understand that being a member of the common European
currency is in the best interest of Greece."

He said that a Greek exit from the euro would be very damaging for
Greece and for the entire euro zone. However, Swedish Finance
Minister Anders Borg said on Sunday that a Greek exit was "most
probable" within six months, and that "in practice everyone already
understands which way the wind is blowing." Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, England, Scotland, David Cameron, Alex Salmond,
Battle of Bannockburn, War of the Roses, Armada war,
English Civil War, Oliver Cromwell, Glorious Revolution,
War of the Spanish Succession, Battle of Blenheim,
Battle of Malplaquet, Greece, troika, EC, ECB, IMF,
Kick the Can Theory, Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Staatsbankrott,
Sweden, Anders Borg

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*** 17-Oct-12 World View -- Tensions grow between Turkey and Kurds in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tensions grow between Turkey and Kurds in Syria
• Change in Georgia's leadership presents new problems in relations with Russia and Nato

****
**** Tensions grow between Turkey and Kurds in Syria
****


Syrian conflict (AP)

The firing between Turkish troops and Syrian troops across the
Turkey/Syria border may well be a potential war, but it's not the
worst war that Turkey is worried about. There has been a low-level
conflict almost continuously since 1984 between Turkey and the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), whose goal is an independent state of
Kurdistan. Since July alone, the PKK have launched terrorist attacks
that have killed at least 112 Turks, including 99 from the army.
Because Turkey has supported the opposition to Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad, and is hosting over 100,000 Syrian refugees in camps
in Turkey, al-Assad has freed the Kurds in eastern Syria to govern
themselves and take whatever action against Syria that they wish.
This has energized the Kurdish separatists, and if al-Assad finally
steps down, then the conflict between the Turks and Kurds will still
be unsettled, and could spiral into a major war. Spiegel and McClatchy

****
**** Change in Georgia's leadership presents new problems in relations with Russia and Nato
****

When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, it took control of two Georgian
provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and has discussed the
possibility of either absorbing them into Russia or recognizing them
as independent nations. A recent election has brought about the
defeat of Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian leader who had fought the
Russians in 2008, and the new leader Bidzina Ivanishvili has expressed
the desire to move away from the extremely bitter relations that came
about in the aftermath of the conflict between the two countries.
However, there are two major issues standing in the way of
reconciliation. The first issue is that the new Georgian leadership
has said that relations with Russia will not be normalized unless
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are returned to Georgia, something that is
not going to happen. The second issue is that the new Georgian
leadership, like the old leadership, wants Georgia to become a member
of Nato, something that Russia strongly opposes. Foreign Policy Journal


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Kurds, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nato,
Mikheil Saakashvili, Bidzina Ivanishvili

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*** 18-Oct-12 World View -- Are Iranian sanctions harming civilians and accomplishing nothing?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Accusations increase that sanctions are harming innocent Iranian civilians
• What's the purpose of sanctions?
• Switzerland may be preparing for war
• France says military intervention will begin 'in a matter of weeks'

****
**** Accusations increase that sanctions are harming innocent Iranian civilians
****


Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in February

The European Union Foreign Affairs Council this week significantly
broadened the sanctions against Iran, hoping to force Iran to give up
it's nuclear development program. The new European measures include a
general ban on financial transactions, with some exceptions for those
involving humanitarian aid and provisions for legitimate trade.
However, human rights groups are saying that millions of lives re at
risk in Iran because the western economic sanctions are hitting the
importing of medicines and hospital equipment. According to
U.N. secretary-general Ban Ki-moon:

"The sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran
have had significant effects on the general population, including
an escalation in inflation, a rise in commodities and energy
costs, an increase in the rate of unemployment and a shortage of
necessary items, including medicine.

The sanctions also appear to be affecting humanitarian operations
in the country," he wrote. "Even companies that have obtained the
requisite licence to import food and medicine are facing
difficulties in finding third-country banks to process the
transactions."

Britain's Foreign Office responded:

"We've been clear that financial sanctions against
Iran are not intended to affect humanitarian goods and
payments. That's why the UK argued for and secured specific
exemptions to allow humanitarian transactions to take place.

Whilst it is true that sanctions are having an impact on the
Iranian population, this is compounded by the Iranian government's
economic mismanagement. Iran's leaders are responsible for any
impact on their people and can make the choices which would bring
sanctions to an end."

The sanctions are being blamed for the collapse of the rial currency,
which has lost some 80% of its value against the dollar since 2011.
This has dramatically affected the lives of ordinary Iranians, as most
imported goods, including things as varied as meat, oil, sugar, tires
and car parts have doubled in price in the last few months. Reuters and Guardian

****
**** What's the purpose of sanctions?
****

Most people who laud the use of sanctions point to the claimed success
for sanctions that were imposed on Poland and South Africa in the last
few decades.

Before coming back to those examples, let's look at some examples
where sanctions did NOT work:

• On July 25, 1941, President Roosevelt signed an executive
  order freezing Japanese assets in the United States, and imposing an
  oil embargo. 4-1/2 months later, the Japanese air force bombed Pearl
  Harbor. I guess we'd have to say that those sanctions didn't
  work.
  
• The West has imposed harsh sanctions on North Korea, to convince
  them to abandon their nuclear program. North Korea has responded by
  testing nuclear weapons. I guess those sanctions didn't work
  either.
  
• China has been imposing strong economic sanctions against Japan in
  the last few months, in order to force Japan to give up their claim to
  the Senkaku islands. But Japan shows no signs of
  acquiescing.

Japan in 1941, as well as Japan and North Korea today, were/are in
generational Crisis eras, a time when nationalism increases sharply.
So sanctions really cannot work during Crisis eras, since they will
only trigger a strong nationalistic response and countermeasures.

So what about President Ronald Reagan's sanctions against Poland and
South Africa? Supporters claim that the sanctions brought democracy
to Poland and ended apartheid in South Africa. But those sanctions
occurred during generational Awakening or Unraveling eras, when
nationalism is extremely low. The move to democracy in Poland and the
end of apartheid in South Africa are fairly typical Awakening era
climaxes. America's most recent Awakening era climax was the
resignation of President Richard Nixon in 1974, and of course that
happened without any country imposing sanctions.

So what about Iran today? Iran is in a generational Awakening era,
and there is little or no nationalism in the country. Does that mean
that the sanctions are going to bring about regime change in Iran?

What is certain is that Iran is headed for some kind of Awakening era
climax, irrespective of whether there are sanctions, and that Awakening era
climax will almost certainly involve regime change of some kind.
When that happens, the politicians in the West will pat themselves on
the back and congratulate themselves and each other for bringing about
regime change, even though they had nothing to do with it.

Could it be argued that the sanctions are speeding up regime change?
I know of no evidence to that effect. To the contrary, it could
easily be argued that sanctions are interfering with the normal
Awakening era political process in Iran, and are actually DELAYING
regime change. And they certainly aren't stopping Iran's nuclear
program.

So what's the point of sanctions on Iran?

The most likely answer can be found in Israel's prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's praise for the new sanctions:

"These sanctions are hitting the Iranian economy hard,
(but) they haven’t yet rolled back the Iranian program. We'll know
that they're achieving their goal when the centrifuges stop
spinning and when the Iranian nuclear program is rolled back."

Without the sanctions, domestic politics would force Netanyahu to bomb
Iran. The sanctions provide a method for "kicking the can down the
road," and allowing politicians in Israel, America and Europe to say
that they're doing something, without having to declare war. But in
terms of their stated objectives -- to force Iran to end its nuclear
program, and to do so without harming civilians -- they're useless
failures. Jewish Telegraphic Agency

****
**** Switzerland may be preparing for war
****

According to a Russian analysis, the Swiss Army is preparing
contingency plans for violent unrest across Europe. The analysis is
based on military exercises conducted by Switzerland's army in
September. As the euro crisis deepens, Switzerland fears widespread
unrest across Europe, and particularly fears a massive influx of Greek
and Italian refugees pouring into Switzerland. The Swiss are pressing
ahead to modernize the 200,000 man army despite political opposition.
Russia Today

****
**** France says military intervention will begin 'in a matter of weeks'
****

An international meeting will be held on Friday in Bamako, the capital
of Mali, to discuss the strategy for military intervention in northern
Mali, where al-Qaeda linked Ansar Dine terrorists have taken control.
France's defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian says that the
intervention could happen in "a matter of weeks, not months, weeks."
The intention is that the 3,300 troops would be supplied by the
Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), with logistical
and financial support from France and possibly the U.S. However, many
people doubt that anything close to such an ambitious timetable can
possibly occur. 3,300 troops is far too few to displace the northern
Mali terrorists, and the forces are ill equipped and not trained to
fight in a huge desert like northern Mali. Most likely, the 3,300
troops would simply flee back to their home countries. All that
notwithstanding, the Mali situation is serious, and it's increasingly
likely that Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) will gain control
of the region, and use it as a base for terrorist attacks into
Algeria, Morocco and Europe. VOA and All Africa


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Iran, Japan, Poland,
South Africa, North Korea, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Switzerland, Greece, Italian, Mali,
Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS,
Ansar Dine, Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, France

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*** 19-Oct-12 World View -- Nationalism and Neo-Nazi violence increase across Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tens of thousands protest against austerity in Greece
• Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party gains support in Greece
• Greeks shocked at Golden Dawn attack on Corpus Christi play performance
• Hungary's neo-Nazi Jobbik party demonstrates against Roma Gypsies
• Bitter Germany/France divisions mark European summit

****
**** Tens of thousands protest against austerity in Greece
****


Protester throws petrol bomb at police (Reuters)

Some 70,000 furious Greeks took to the streets in Athens on Thursday,
while European officials were at a summit in Brussels discussing the
next round of austerity measures to impose on Greece. Protesters in
Syntagma Square through rocks, petrol bombs, bottles and chunks of
marble at police, who responded with rounds of tear gas and stun
grenades. One 60 year old protester, Nikos Xeros, is quoted as
saying:

"After nearly 50 years of work and paying into an
expensive pension fund, I have been forced to retire on 1,000
euros a month and if they pass these measures it will be even
less. It's like having a noose about your neck that is getting
ever tighter. The next time I come out to demonstrate it's going
to be with a gas mask and a big wooden club."

Xeros has been working as a shipbuilder since age 16. AP and Guardian

****
**** Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party gains support in Greece
****

Proceedings in the Greek parliament were disrupted Thursday when Eleni
Zaroulia of the far right Golden Dawn party, an MP and member of a
Council of Europe anti-discrimination committee, described immigrants
as subhumans:

"It is unacceptable that they be assimilated to this
kind of subhumans who have invaded our fatherland with the
diseases that they lug around."

The loud support that she received is symptomatic of the growing
support that the Golden Dawn party is receiving from the public.
Violence against "subhuman" immigrants is growing, and there is some
evidence that some Greek police are supporting the violence, or at
least doing nothing to stop it. Greek Reporter

****
**** Greeks shocked at Golden Dawn attack on Corpus Christi play performance
****

Another Golden Dawn MP, Ilias Panagiotaros, last week led a protest
against a performance of the Terence McNally play, Corpus
Christi. Panagiotaros shouted racist, homophobic and threatening
remarks against the director of the play. The 1997 play dramatizes
the story of Jesus and the Apostles, and includes a scene where Jesus
administers a gay marriage between two apostles. A Youtube clip has
Panagiotaros shouting, "Wrap it up you little faggots. Yes, just keep
staring at me you little hooker. Your time is up." and "You Albanian
assholes." Golden Dawn members threw rocks at audience members and,
through it all, the police just stood by and let it happen.
Panagiotaros is commemorating the Greece's civil war that ended in
1949:

"There is already civil war.

Greek society is ready - even though no-one likes this - to have a
fight: a new type of civil war.

On the one side there will be nationalists like us, and Greeks who
want our country to be as it used to be, and on the other side
illegal immigrants, anarchists and all those who have destroyed
Athens several times."

The attack on Corpus Christi has become a signal moment in Greek
politics, and greater nationalism and violence directed against
immigrants. BBC

****
**** Hungary's neo-Nazi Jobbik party demonstrates against Roma Gypsies
****

Around 500 supporters of Hungary's far right Jobbik party demonstrated
against Roma Gypsies in the Hungarian city of Miskolc, protesting
against "Gypsy crime" in the Avas housing development mostly occupied,
some illegally, by poor Roma families. The housing development was
originally built to house an influx of Roma workers in the 1980s, but
when factories closed down in the 1990s, Avas has fallen into
disrepair. Jobbik supporters are calling for the eviction of families
that owe rent or public utility bills, and an "end to the terror."
Like Greece's Golden Dawn party, Hungary's nationalistic Jobbik party
is growing in popularity. BBC and Politics (Hungary)

****
**** Bitter Germany/France divisions mark European summit
****


Bad body language between Angela Merkel and François Hollande (Al-Jazeera)

European leaders have arrived in Brussels for a two-day European Union
summit with a bitter dispute growing between France and Germany.
France's president François Hollande would like to extend as much
credit as possible to the "Club Med" countries, Greece, Italy and
Spain. Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel is much more cautious, and
is making a counter-demand: That Brussels be given a budgetary veto
over euro zone countries. However, Hollande has stated that France
will never give up any budgetary authority to anyone. At stake is the
next bailout loan to Greece. Expect the "Kick the Can Theory" to be
followed, and that the EU officials will find a way to kick the can
down the road, postponing the problems for a few additional weeks or
months, after which the problems will be MUCH worse than they are
today. Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Golden Dawn, Eleni Zarouli,
Ilias Panagiotaros, Terence McNally, Corpus Christi,
Hungary, Roma Gypsies, Jobbik, European Union,
Angela Merkel. François Hollande, Germany, France

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*** 20-Oct-12 World View -- Beirut Lebanon bombing raises specter of wider Mideast war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Huge car bomb in Beirut Lebanon kills eight
• Car bombing renews fears of renewed civil war in Lebanon
• Murder of Lebanese hero Wissam al-Hassan considered a blow to all of Lebanon
• Lebanon and the region are braced for a violent backlash
• China's navy prepares for war with Japan

****
**** Huge car bomb in Beirut Lebanon kills eight
****


A woman is rescued from the Beirut bombing on Friday (Reuters)

A massive car bomb exploded in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, around
3 pm on Friday afternoon. The bombing created a 15-foot-deep crater,
killed eight people and wounded about 80 others. One of the dead, and
the apparent target of the bombing, was Wissam al-Hassan, a senior
member of Lebanon's intelligence services. Al-Hassan had been leading
the investigation that implicated Syria and Hezbollah in the 2005
assassination of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri. Several
government officials, including Saad al-Hariri, the son of Rafik,
accused Syria of perpetrating the bombing. Syrian officials denied
this, but no one believes anything that they say any more. Gulf Times

****
**** Car bombing renews fears of renewed civil war in Lebanon
****

Lebanon today is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation
past Lebanon's last generational crisis war, which began in 1975, and
became a war with Syria in 1976. Israel was an off-and-on
participant, and the war reached an explosive climax in 1982 when
Christian Arab forces, allied with Israel, massacred and butchered
hundreds or perhaps thousands of Palestinian refugees in camps in the
Sabra and Shatila refugee camps. Since that war ended, the Lebanese
people have been haunted by that episode, and officials have been
determined not to allow anything like it to happen again.

The killing of Rafik al-Hariri in 2005, frightened all of Lebanon,
haunted by the fear that the brutal civil war would be revived. (See
"Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq al-Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock" from
2005). These fears soared with the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah,
which mostly took place on Lebanese soil. Analysts around the world
were predicting that Lebanon would return to all-out civil war. But
as I wrote many times, before and since, a new crisis civil war is
impossible in Lebanon during a generational Awakening era, because too
many people remember the horrors of the previous civil war. During
the 2006 war, I quoted Lebanese President Émile Geamil Lahoud as
saying:

"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."

This is a really haunting remark, saying that Israel can't do anything
worse to Lebanon than the Lebanese could do to themselves.

The 2005 murder of Rafik al-Hariri has been almost universally blamed on
Syria and Hizbollah, and Friday's bombing and killing of Wissam
al-Hassan has brought back all of these horrors, and Syria is being
almost universally blamed again. Saad al-Hariri, the son of the murdered
Rafik, said today:

"The message from Damascus today is anywhere you are,
if you are against the regime from Lebanon, we will come and get
you. No matter what you try to do, we will keep on assassinating
the Lebanese."

BBC (2005) and CNN

****
**** Murder of Lebanese hero Wissam al-Hassan considered a blow to all of Lebanon
****


Wissam al-Hassan in March, 2011

Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan was considered a hero by many people in
Lebanon, because of his investigations to uncover plots against
Lebanon itself. As the head of the Information Branch of the Internal
Security Forces, he played a central role in cooperating with the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which was charged with getting all the
facts surrounding the 2005 assassination of Rafik al-Hariri. It's
thought that he would prove that the culprits were Syria or Hizbollah
or both, and many people therefore conclude that Syria and Hizbollah
were responsible for Friday's bombing. However, al-Hassan's
investigations went well beyond the al-Hariri killing. He was highly
lauded by everyone in Lebanon for overseeing the discovery and
dismantling of Israeli espionage rings in the country. Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Lebanon and the region are braced for a violent backlash
****

The reluctance of the West in general and Turkey in particular to
intervene militarily to try to end Syria's conflict is based on the
fear that military intervention would trigger a widespread Mideast
war. However, Friday's bombing in Beirut is bringing many people to
the conclusion that it's the reluctance to intervene that's allowing
the Syrian conflict to spill over into neighboring countries,
threatening to trigger exactly that widespread Mideast war. Lebanon
is particularly vulnerable to the spillover, since the country is
almost completely split in two between Shia/Hizbollah supporters of
the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and the Sunnis who
are supporting the opposition. There have already been low-level
clashes between Sunnis and Shia in the north Lebanon town of Tripoli,
near the Syrian border. The shocking assassination of Sunni Muslim
al-Hassan is almost certain to trigger new and heightened clashes.

But the Syrian conflict is spilling over into other countries as well.
There are hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees crossing all the
borders out of Syria, straining resources in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq
and Turkey. The Syrian conflict has allowed the Kurds in eastern Syria
to become self-government, and the separatist PKK terrorists are staging
an increasing number of terrorist attacks into Turkey, causing Turkey
to consider invading Syria to bring the Kurds under control. There are
already forces massed on the Turkish border with Syria, and there are
American troops on Jordan's border with Syria, nominally to make sure
that Syria's chemic weapons remain secure.

In 2003 I wrote that there would be a huge new Mideast war between
Jews and Arabs, refighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
(See "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" from 2003.) There have been three wars since then --
the war between Israelis and Hizbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's
soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in
Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; and Operation Cast
Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009.

So, will the conflict in Syria be the trigger that leads to an all-out
Mideast war? Something has to be the trigger, and this might be it,
but there are still reasons to believe that the Syrian conflict will
fizzle out before it spreads to the whole region. Syria is also in a
generational Awakening era, and so a crisis civil war is impossible
there, just as it is in Lebanon. The main difference between a crisis
war and a non-crisis war is that a crisis war comes from the people,
while a non-crisis war comes from the politicians. There is no doubt
that the Syria conflict is NOT coming from the people, but is coming
from the regime of Bashar al-Assad. If al-Assad stepped down, then
the civil war could fizzle very quickly. The conflict in Syria will
not, on its own, turn into a crisis civil war, but if Turkey, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Hizbollah and Nato get involved, then it could
spread into a regional war among those belligerents. Washington Post

****
**** China's navy prepares for war with Japan
****

China's naval forces on Friday held exercises to simulate defending
against a clash with Japanese coast guard forces near the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, which are claimed by both countries, as well
as by Taiwan. A total of 11 vessels, eight aircraft and more than
1,000 people from the East Sea Fleet of the People's Liberation Army
(PLA) navy and regional bureaus of fishery management and oceanic
administrations took part in the exercise. The exercise simulated a
scenario in which Chinese marine surveillance and fishery management
patrol vessels were obstructed by and clashed with foreign patrol
ships during law enforcement missions in Chinese waters. The "clash"
led to damage to Chinese vessels, and some of the crew members aboard
the ships were injured and fell into the sea. The East Sea Fleet then
sent frigates, hospital ships, tugboats, fighters as well as
helicopters to back up and shield the vessels and provide emergency
aid. According to a People's Liberation Army general, "We have
gradually gained the initiative in the waters off the islets, shifting
from passively defending to active law enforcement in the area. Such
exercises could effectively deter those who dare infringe upon our
maritime rights." Global Times (Beijing)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Wissam al-Hassan,
Rafik al-Hariri, Saad al-Hariri, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Émile Geamil Lahoud, Israel, Hizbollah,
Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, China, Japan,
Senkaku islands, Diaoyu islands

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*** 21-Oct-12 World View -- U.S. aircraft carrier and Vietnam show force in the South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. aircraft carrier and Vietnam show force in the South China Sea
• Chinese fisherman killed while fishing in South Korean waters
• Israel navy intercepts activist ship trying to break Gaza blockade

****
**** U.S. aircraft carrier and Vietnam show force in the South China Sea
****


USS George Washington nuclear powered aircraft carrier in South China Sea on Saturday (AP)

The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington cruised
through the South China Sea on Saturday, in a show of force to
counter China's claim to the entire region. China is demanding
sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including areas
historically belonging to other countries, and has established
a military base in the Paracel Islands to be able to use its
vast military power to enforce its demands militarily. One of the
nations that China is threatening militarily is Vietnam, and
Vietnamese security and government officials were flown onto the
aircraft carrier to take part in the show of military force.
The United States says that it takes no sides in the territorial
disputes between China and all of its neighbors, but says it
wants the disputes settled according to international law, and
wants to guarantee freedom of passage through the South China
Sea for all commercial traffic. AP

****
**** Chinese fisherman killed while fishing in South Korean waters
****

South Korea expressed regret Friday over the death of a Chinese
fisherman who was with a group of 30 Chinese vessels fishing in South
Korean waters. The Chinese fishermen used knives and clubs on South
Korean Coast Guard officers attempting to board the fishing vessels.
The South Koreans responded by firing rubber bullets, and one of the
Chinese fishermen was killed. China is protesting the incident. So
far this year, the South Korean coast guard has seized 130 Chinese
fishing boats for poaching. Chinese fishermen consider the risk
acceptable because the fish stocks off the South Korean coast are much
richer (in quantity and quality) than off China (where overfishing has
done a lot of damage). Yonhap and Strategy Page

****
**** Israel navy intercepts activist ship trying to break Gaza blockade
****

Israel's navy has seized the Swedish ship "Estelle" of pro-Palestinian
activists attempting to land at a Gaza port, thereby breaking Israel's
blockade of Gaza. It was carrying 30 activists from Europe, Canada
and Israel, humanitarian cargo such as cement and goodwill items such
as children's books. The Israeli navy boarded the ship without
incident and towed it to the Israeli port of Ashdod. The activists
are expected to be deported, and the humanitarian aid will be
transported overland to Gaza. Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, USS George Washington, South China Sea,
Vietnam, China, Paracel Islands, South Korea,
Israel, Sweden, Gaza

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*** 22-Oct-12 World View -- Desperate European leaders plan for marathon summit next month

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Emir Abdelmalek Droukdel, head of AQIM, says that the terrorist organization is 'sick'
• Syrian rebels and Islamist jihadists seizing weapons in Syria
• Hizbollah launching rocket attacks into Syria
• Russia conducts a large security operation in North Caucasus
• Desperate European leaders plan for marathon summit next month

****
**** Emir Abdelmalek Droukdel, head of AQIM, says that the terrorist organization is 'sick'
****


Abdelmalek Droukdel

In a letter written by Emir Abdelmalek Droukdel, head of Al-Qaeda in
the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and seized by Algerian security forces
during a raid, Droukdel says that AQIM "is sick" because of "terrorist
members that no longer respect the decisions of the emirs." (Sounds
like a generational problem.) He noted "the fragility of the
situation and the low morale among many of its members, and discontent
with the emirs who are considered to be responsible for the
situation," and said that the organisation suffers from instability,
internal problems as well as regulatory gaps due to lack of
co-ordination and poorly defined responsibilities. He acknowledged
the effectiveness of the Algerian security forces who had eliminated a
large number of field leaders, and who used security barriers and
explosive detectors, "which rendered movements and terrorist
operations difficult." Magharebia

****
**** Syrian rebels and Islamist jihadists seizing weapons in Syria
****

After the Libyan conflict, large stores of Muammar al-Gaddafi's weapons
fell into the hands of local militant groups, including al-Qaeda
linked terrorist groups. It already appears that the same thing is
happening in Syria. In the past few weeks, there have been increasing
reports that Syrian opposition forces, sometimes linked with al-Qaeda
linked jihadists, have seized control of air defense bases of the
Syrian military, and have captured considerable quantities of weapons
and ammunition, including missiles and missile launchers, mortars and
radars. According to some reports, Syrian opposition forces have
taken control of a plant housing large 100-kilogram chlorine tanks,
each of which is "capable of destroying a town of 25,000 people." The
rebels say that they've "sealed" the plant, while retaining control of
it. Memri

****
**** Hizbollah launching rocket attacks into Syria
****

Reports indicate that the Lebanese terrorist group Hizbollah is fully
engaged in the Syrian conflict, and is launching rocket attacks into
Syria in support of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
Residents of the targeted area say that the attacks began six weeks
ago, and are getting heavier. Hizbollah is thought to have thousands
of rockets that were supplied by Iran for use in a future war with
Israel, but now they're being used against the Syrian opposition.
According to one analyst, "Hizbollah is not just protecting the Syrian
regime, they are protecting themselves. They are protecting the
smuggling routes in Syria that they use to get weapons from Iran and
their Shia supporters on the border." Telegraph (London) and Israel National News

****
**** Russia conducts a large security operation in North Caucasus
****

Russia's National Antiterrorism Committee (NAK) says that a large
operation in the North Caucasus (Russia's largely Muslim southern
provinces) has been conducted in the last few weeks, and that hundreds
of "wanted" people have been taken into custody. The security
operation resulted in the seizure of some 30 improvised explosive
devices, more than 100 kilograms of material used for making
explosives, more than 100 weapons, and some 530 mines, rockets, and
grenades as well as a large amount of ammunition. Russia's president
Vladimir Putin referred to several international events scheduled to
be held in Russia, such as the Winter Olympic Games in 2014 in Sochi
and the soccer World Cup in 2018, and said: "It is a matter of honor
for all law enforcement officials to ensure that these events be
staged in a normal, business-like, and festive manner, so that nothing
can cast a pall over them." RFERL

****
**** Desperate European leaders plan for marathon summit next month
****

The European Union leadership planning to attend the
summit scheduled for Thursday and Friday,
November 22-23, are being warned to pack at least four shirts, as
the summit will almost certainly be extended to run through the
entire weekend, with working sessions running all through each night.
Topics to be discuss will include:

• Whether the entire European Union budget will be cut.
  
• Whether the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be cut. The CAP
  provides agricultural subsidies to member states. The CAP was
  actually set up in the 1980s, when "iron lady" Margaret Thatcher was
  British Prime Minister, and she negotiated a "rebate" for the UK,
  since the UK didn't have enough agriculture to justify much of a
  subsidy.
  
  
  Furious EU President in 2005, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker sided with France against UK (BBC)
  
  The issue came to a head in at an EU summit in Brussels in 2005, in
  which UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac
  disputed the terms of the EU budget for 2007-2013.
  Blair offered to agree to end the EU rebate to the
  UK, if Chirac agreed to reduce the CAP subsidies to France. Chirac
  demanded that Blair give up the rebate with nothing in return. The
  dispute between the two men turned into an extremely vitriolic
  confrontation. The furious EU President Jean-Claude Juncker sided with
  Chirac and condemned Blair and the UK, saying he felt ashamed that
  "certain people did not have the will to reach agreement when some
  poorer other countries were willing to do so." Now the issue is
  back on the table again.
  
• Whether there will be separate eurozone and non-eurozone
  budgets.

This marathon summit meeting ought to be interesting because it's just
about the time when Greece will go bankrupt unless it receives another
bailout payment, and it's pretty clear that Greece will not meet the
austerity requirements to qualify for that bailout payment. So will
Greece go bankrupt? According to the "Kick the Can Theory," which
says that Europeans will always find a way to kick the can down the
road, the summit will find some excuse for approving the bailout
payment, so that Greece can go on spending money for another few
months. EurActiv


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Abdelmalek Droukdel,
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Algeria,
Syria, Libya, Muammar al-Gaddafi, Syria,
Hizbollah, Lebanon, Russia, North Caucasus,
Vladimir Putin, European Union, euro zone,
Common Agricultural Policy, CAP, Margaret Thatcher,
Jean-Claude Juncker, France, Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac,
Greece, Kick the Can Theory

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*** 23-Oct-12 World View -- After 50 years of political unity, France and Germany's relations are increasingly hostile

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Italy sentences scientists to jail for not predicting 2009 earthquake
• North and South Korea exchange threats over leaflet-laden balloons
• Lebanon's politicians turn against Hizbollah
• After 50 years of political unity, France and Germany's relations are increasingly hostile

****
**** Italy sentences scientists to jail for not predicting 2009 earthquake
****


Aftermath of April, 2009, earthquake in city of L'Aquila Italy (AP)

A court in the central Italian city of L'Aquila on Monday sentenced
six scientists and a government bureaucrat to six years in jail on
manslaughter charges for their failure to predict a 2009 earthquake
that left more than 300 people dead. The seven are all members of the
"National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks."
This commission met early in 2009, and responded to the question of
whether there would be a repeat of the disastrous earthquake of 1703.
The response was: "It is unlikely that an earthquake like the one in
1703 could occur in the short term, but the possibility cannot be
totally excluded." That was enough to find them guilty of criminal
manslaughter. Apparently the Italian court system consists of a bunch
of morons.

For ten years, I've been using this web site to predict things that,
unlike earthquakes, actually CAN be predicted. (See "List of major Generational Dynamics predictions" from 2008.) But that's not what bothers me.

What bothers me is that six scientists have been sentenced to jail for
doing their jobs honestly, as far as I can tell, while none of the
banksters that caused the financial crisis have gone to jail. If you
turn on CNBC or Bloomberg TV, you see banksters making 7-digit
salaries and bonues who lie constantly, particularly stock
price/earnings ratios, also called "valuations." If you look at the
Wall Street Journal , you'll see that the current S&P 500
price/earnings ratio is 17.03, far, far higher than the historical
average of 14, meaning that stocks are far overpriced. But the
so-called experts on CNBC and Bloomberg TV tell full-throated lies,
saying that valuations are around 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 or are
historically low. (See "14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations"
from earlier this year.) So we have
scientists in Italy doing their jobs and being sent to jail by morons,
and we have crooks and liars on CNBC and Bloomberg TV who are NOT
going to jail. CS Monitor

****
**** North and South Korea exchange threats over leaflet-laden balloons
****


Previous South Korean balloon launch (Reuters)

A group of North Korean defectors in South Korea have defied the South
Korean army and launched balloons carrying 120,000 leaflets criticizing
North Korea across the North Korean border. When the defectors
announced the plan last week, North Korea said its army will launch a
"merciless military strike" if the leaflet balloons were launch,
saying that the balloons were "undisguised psychological warfare."
South Korea immediately went on high alert and responded that it was
prepared to "completely destroy" the North Korean attack. However,
the South Korean army and police were sent out to stop the balloon
launch. The defectors evaded the army and launched most of the
balloons anyway. A U.S. envoy in Beijing said, "It is grossly
disproportionate to have threatened to respond to balloons with
bombs." Yonhap (Seoul) and Arirang (Seoul)

****
**** Lebanon's politicians turn against Hizbollah
****

Hizbollah is both an international terrorist group and a political
party in Lebanon, with links to Iran and to the Bashar al-Assad regime
in Syria. However, its continued support for al-Assad, as he's been
almost two years of extermination attacks on innocent Arab women and
children in their homes, has caused Hizbollah to be weakened, and
allowed opposition politicians in Lebanon to stand up to Hizbollah
where they previously didn't dare to do so. Particular criticism is
now being directed against Hizbollah for its use of weapons for any
purpose other than the "Resistance," where the word "Resistance"
refers to actions taken against Israel. Hizbollah's weapons are to
be used ONLY for the "resistance," but now Hizbollah is being
criticized for using its weapons illegally -- sometimes against Lebanese
people who oppose Hizbollah, but more importantly now in support
of Bashar al-Assad's extermination policy.

Lebanese President and former commander of the Lebanese army Michel
Suleiman, who became president of Lebanon in 2008 with the blessings
of Syria and Hizbollah, has now become particularly critical of
Hizbollah, and is demanding that Hizbollah's weapons be turned over to
Lebanon's military:

"[We] propose to approve a law to arm the Lebanese
army for the intermediate future, and to allocate sufficient
resources to develop its human and military capabilities, so that
it can formulate a plan to defend the country's land, air, and
sea. [Until then], all sides [must] agree on the framework and
appropriate mechanisms for use of the resistance weapons, for
determining who controls them, and for approving [a procedure for]
handing them over to the military, which is exclusively
responsible for operating mechanisms of power. ...

We have decided to arm the Lebanese military in five years, so
that it will have the exclusive capability to carry weapons in
Lebanon and defend the land."

A Hizbollah spokesman has replied:

"In Lebanon there is one party called Hizbollah. We do
not have a military wing and a political wing. We do not have
Hizbollah [on one hand] and the resistance party [on the
other]. Hizbollah is a political party and the resistance
party. The distinctions being drawn by certain people are
forbidden and nonexistent. ... No one is competing
with the state for exclusive control of weapons... However, if the
intention of the slogan [that the state should exclusively control
the weapons] is to disarm the resistance, then we say to them that
this is the last thing they should think of. ...

We will protect our weapons at any cost, [for] they are like the
blood flowing through our veins."

Memri

****
**** After 50 years of political unity, France and Germany's relations are increasingly hostile
****


Hollande and Merkel in September

After fighting two bitter wars in the first half of the 20th century,
Germany and France have generally been unified after World War II in pursuing
political objectives to guarantee that there would never be another
war. But the recent European Summit exposed huge policy differences between
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François
Hollande, as well as the fact that they despise each other.
Some of the personal and policy differences are:

• Hollande doesn't want to forgive Merkel for openly supporting
  his opponent, Nicolas Sarkozy, during France's last presidential election.
  
• Merkel suspects that Hollande is secretly planning a campaign against Merkel
  in Germany's next election.
  
• Hollande suspects that Germany is using the budget issue as an
  excuse to gain European dominance. Merkel is demanding the EU's right
  to intervene in national budgets, which Hollande firmly rejects.
  
• Merkel is suspicious that France is joining forces with Spain and
  Italy to form a joint axis against Germany.
  
• Hollande insists that the euro crisis can be solved only if Europe
  shared liability for debts of individual countries. He's put forth several
  proposals to accomplish this: euro bonds, euro bills, debt repayment fund.
  
• Hollande is critical of Germany's "obsession" with austerity and budget
  controls.
  
• Hollande wanted to merge the German-France EADS aircraft maker with
  the British defense contractor BAE, but Germany vetoed the merger.
  
• Merkel believes that Hollande is a novice in the business of
  governing, and he is making mistakes that are accelerating France's
  decline.

The Germans are particularly dismayed over Hollande's attempt to paint
himself as the spokesman of the southern EU countries. It upsets them
that he's is reviving old plans for a Mediterranean union on Europe's
southern edge, including four other Southern European and five North
African countries. Spiegel


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, earthquakes, L'Aquila,
National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks,
North Korea, South Korea, Lebanon, Hizbollah, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad, Israel, Michel Suleiman,
France, Germany, Angela Merkel, François Hollande,
Spain, Greece, EADS, BAE

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*** 24-Oct-12 World View -- Qatar breaks Gaza blockade and replaces Iran as Hamas's benefactor

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Qatar's emir visits Gaza as guest of jubilant Hamas
• Sheik Hamad ostentatiously snubs West Bank (Fatah) Palestinians
• Qatar's sponsorship of Hamas effectively ends the Gaza blockade
• MSNBC's Chris Matthews spreads filth after Monday's debate

****
**** Qatar's emir visits Gaza as guest of jubilant Hamas
****


Hamas leader Khaled Meshal to left of Qatar leader Sheik Hamad on red carpet (al-Jazeera)

In a dramatic development that augurs a Mideast realignment, Qatar's
emir Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani visited the Gaza Strip on
Tuesday, and committed to giving $400 million to the Hamas leadership
for building and infrastructure projects. The move is a final step in
a process that began with the conflict in Syria. For years, Iran has
been providing Hamas with money and weapons to be used one day in an
attack on Israel. This never made any sense, but it was part of the
erotic wet dream of Iran's senior leadership that they could become
the new leaders of the Muslim world, somewhat in the same way that the
Ottoman empire led the Muslim world for centuries. Hamas has been
willing to take Iran's money, but there was no way that Sunni Hamas
would ever relinquish any control to Shia Iran. Even though the
arrangement never made sense, it continued for years, but began to
collapse with the conflict in Syria. For almost two years, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad has been conducting massive extermination
attacks on innocent Arab women and children in their homes in Syria's
cities, and Hamas is unable to support al-Assad in that extermination
effort. Hamas had a very close relationship with al-Assad because of
their shared "resistance" to Israel, and even had Hamas' headquarters
in Damascus, the capital of Syria. But gradually last year Hamas cut
ties to Syria, moving its headquarters to Doha, the capital of Qatar.
Guardian (London)

****
**** Sheik Hamad ostentatiously snubs West Bank (Fatah) Palestinians
****

In his visit to Gaza, Qatar's Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani
called for a reconciliation between the two Palestinian organizations,
Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Fatah in the West Bank.

"The Palestinian cause ... remains a bleeding wound in
the Arab body as Israel continues every day to change the face of
Palestinian land through its settlement activities and Judaisation
in the occupied West Bank and especially in Jerusalem.

Surely you realise that your division [between Hamas and Fatah] is
the source of greater harm to your cause and the cause of all
Arabs. It is time you end the chapter of differences and open a
wide chapter for reconciliation."

In fact, Sheik Hamad has ostentatiously snubbed the West Bank leaders.
I've written several times in the past that the al-Jazeera news
channel, headquartered in Doha and funded by Qatar, appears to hate
the West Bank even more than it hates Israel, and Tuesday's visit by
Sheik Hamad seems to confirm that observation. Al-Jazeera

****
**** Qatar's sponsorship of Hamas effectively ends the Gaza blockade
****

Since Israeli/Egyptian blockade of Gaza began five years ago, the importation
of building materials into Gaza has been strictly controled, since they
can be used to build weapons and bunkers as well as people's homes. However,
Egypt will permit the construction materials that Qatar is funding
to pass through the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, effectively
ending the blockade of Gaza.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there
will be a new Mideast war between Arabs and Jews, re-fighting the the
war that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creatioin
of the state of Israel. This war will engulf the whole region, and
become a sectarian wars between Sunnis and Shia. Hamas's split with
Iran, Syria's sectarian conflict, and Tuesday's visit to Gaza by
Qatar's emir, aligned with Egypt's president Morsi's agreement to
effectively end the blockade, are all a part of a major realignment in
Mideast politics that moves us closer to that Mideast war. WSJ

****
**** MSNBC's Chris Matthews spreads filth after Monday's debate
****

After Monday's debate between President Barack Obama and Governor
Mitt Romney, MSNBC's commentator Chris Matthews called Romney supporters
racists:

"I think they hate Obama. They want him out of the
White House more than they want to destroy al Qaeda. Their No. 1
enemy in the world right now, on the right, is their hatred,
hatred for Obama. And we can go into that about the white working
class in the South and looking at these numbers we're getting the
last couple days about racial hatred in many cases ... this isn't
about being a better president, they want to get rid of this
president,"

This guy is so far in the sewer that it's a disgrace to America that
he occupies a prominent position that permits him to spread his filth
as much as he wants. The Hill

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani,
Qatar, Hamas, Khaled Meshal, Gaza, Fatah,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Egypt, Rafah, Iran,
MSNBC, Chris Matthews

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** MSNBC's Chris Matthews spreads filth after Monday's debate
****

After Monday's debate between President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney, MSNBC's commentator Chris Matthews called Romney supporters racists:

<<<< Quote Deleted >>>>

This guy is so far in the sewer that it's a disgrace to America that he occupies a prominent position that permits him to spread his filth as much as he wants. The Hill

I would buy that if I hadn't witnessed some of this attitude personally. Sadly, it's true, though it's obviousy not universally true. But there are a lot of haters out there, and the comment about taking the country back often resonates at the racial level.

I was actually told by an otherwise intelligent rural Southern businessman that, " In November we're fianally going to get rid of that n199er in our White House!", and he meant it just the way it reads.

A lot of Romney supporters ARE racist, Tweety is totally correct.

Originally Posted by Odin

A lot of Romney supporters ARE racist, Tweety is totally correct.

At least some of them are. Elsewhere I quoted a local columnist who toured southern New Mexico and recorded a lot of opinions to the effect that Obama was a Communist, a Muslim, and a foreigner. Much of that seemed less racist than plain old xenophobic, but there's a lot of overlap between the two.

However, I have a friend whose wife reported to me that her husband was voting for Romney because the deficit was the issue that loomed large in his mind. To the exclusion of all other issues, she said, as she told me she'd mentioned the costs of the war in Iraq. So it's not a single-issue matter.

Now, I happen to think Romney would have no better luck - probably worse luck - in turning the economy around, than Obama. That the person who could turn the economy around, if such exists, will probably show in in 2016 with 8 years of observing what didn't work as a clue to what might. But as I said, it is not a single-issue matter. Not any more, if it ever was.

After 20 years of watching self-righteous liberals conduct the most
vile, hateful, racist campaign against Supreme Court Justice Clarence
Thomas, I'm very well aware of how racist some groups of people are,
and how these self-righteous people believe that their racism is
perfectly fine and ok and wonderful, while others' racism is not.

That doesn't excuse the filth of a major news commentator accusing
anyone opposing his candidate of racism.

However, let's not pretend that spreading filth is anything but a
political tactic. Australia's president Julia Gillard, who is
President Obama's soul-mate, got a big spike in her approval rating
lately by accusing anyone of disagreeing with her of misogyny.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...isogyny-speech

When you're completely lacking in facts, just call someone a racist or
misogynist or pedophile or teabagger to win your point.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

After 20 years of watching self-righteous liberals conduct the most
vile, hateful, racist campaign against Supreme Court Justice Clarence
Thomas, I'm very well aware of how racist some groups of people are,
and how these self-righteous people believe that their racism is
perfectly fine and ok and wonderful, while others' racism is not.

That doesn't excuse the filth of a major news commentator accusing
anyone opposing his candidate of racism.

However, let's not pretend that spreading filth is anything but a
political tactic. Australia's president Julia Gillard, who is
President Obama's soul-mate, got a big spike in her approval rating
lately by accusing anyone of disagreeing with her of misogyny.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...isogyny-speech

When you're completely lacking in facts, just call someone a racist or
misogynist or pedophile or teabagger to win your point.

LOL, you wingnuts spout all the same talking points like a bunch of robots.

*** 25-Oct-12 World View -- Proposals grow for Israel to annex the West Bank

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sudan blames Israel for explosion of military factory in Khartoum
• Greece does chaotic about-face on rumors of bailout agreement
• Gaza/West Bank split becomes more pronounced after Qatari emir's visit
• Proposals grow for Israel to annex the West Bank

****
**** Sudan blames Israel for explosion of military factory in Khartoum
****


Fire following an explosion at military factory in Khartoum Sudan on Wednesday (EPA)

The Yarmouth military factory in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan,
exploded on Wednesday. Sudan blamed Israel for the explosions,
referring to residents who reported seeing aircraft prior to the
explosions. Israel refused to comment, but are known to believe that
Sudan smuggles weapons to militants in Gaza. Sudan claims that the
factory only made "traditional weapons," but there are unconfirmed
reports that the factory produced Iranian Shehab missiles. There is a
history here: In 1998 the US launched a missile attack on a
pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum, alleging that it was making
materials for chemical weapons an accusation that Sudan denied.
BBC and
Debka

****
**** Greece does chaotic about-face on rumors of bailout agreement
****

The German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on Wednesday that
European leaders had finally agreed to Greece's request for a two-year
delay in imposing further austerity requirements, thus clearing the
way for Greece to receive the next 31.5 billion euro bailout payment
in time to avoid bankruptcy in November. The two year extension would
be controversial, since it would increase by 20 billion euros the
total amount of bailout money that would have to be provided to
Greece. Greece's finance minister Yannis Stournaras announced the
two-year extension in return for a set of tax increases and public
sector job cuts, but later in the day was forced to reverse himself
and admit that Germany and other European officials had vetoed the
deal. One Greek official said that the "troika" of European leaders
will be forced to provide the bailout payment, irrespective of
Greece's commitments:

"Even if the troika give us a negative report, what
are they going to do? Are they really going to not give us the
installment [to keep Greece's economy afloat] two weeks before the
US elections, with everything that entails – default, bankruptcy,
global market turmoil?

These labour reforms will turn our country into Bangladesh. They
have no fiscal benefit and will actually derail the adjustment
programme. The political system will collapse if we impose them.

The troika is demanding that we commit suicide, which is why we
believe this is a matter that should be solved on a political
level by the prime minister and not with the troika."

I guess if the American election depends on it, then there's no
choice, is there? Spiegel and Guardian (London)

****
**** Gaza/West Bank split becomes more pronounced after Qatari emir's visit
****


Trails of smoke are seen after the launch of rockets from the northern Gaza strip towards Israel on Wednesday (Reuters)

Major realignments are in progress after Tuesday's visit to Gaza by
Qatar's emir Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani that we reported
yesterday. During the visit,
Sheik Hamad announced $400 million in aid to Hamas, and Egypt
announced an effective end to the blockade of Gaza. However, the
visit apparently angered some of the non-Hamas militant groups in
Gaza, who launched a shower of missiles on Israeli cities. But now
there are reports that Egypt has mediated a ceasefire between Hamas
and Israel. Similar claims in the past turned out to be false or
transitory. Ynet

****
**** Proposals grow for Israel to annex the West Bank
****

An even more significant outcome of Sheik Hamad's visit is the further
separation of Gaza and the West Bank, as Hamad ostentatiously refused
to visit the West Bank. Although Gaza and the West Bank are often
thought of as similar "Palestinian territories" that will one day be
joined into a Palestinian state, the two populations are far apart,
with different tribal backgrounds, and with different allegiances --
the West Bank to Jordan, and Gaza to Egypt. Those differences have
only grown and turned into animosities since the two regions became
geographically separated after the 1967 war. Recently, it's been
almost impossible for someone in Gaza to visit the West Bank, except
by traveling to Egypt, taking a plane to Jordan, and then traveling
from there to the West Bank.

It's now apparent to most people that there is little chance of
reconciliation between Gaza and the West Bank, and one proposal being
increasingly heard is that Israel annex the West Bank -- making it an
actual part of Israel, leaving Gaza to become a separate nation on its
own. However, this would have bitter political implications.
According to a recent poll, most Israeli Jews would accept such a
proposal only provided that Jews would have preference over Arabs for
public sector jobs, and the West Bank Palestinians should not have the
right to vote in Israel. CS Monitor and Al-Ahram (Cairo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, Khartoum, Yarmouth military factory,
Israel, Iran, Shehab missile, Greece, troika, Gaza, Egypt,
West Bank, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Qatar, Hamas

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Originally Posted by Odin

LOL, you wingnuts spout all the same talking points like a bunch of robots.

If I were a "wingnut" as you claim, then every day I would be writing
about Benghazi, fast and furious, and birth certificates.

I would add that I was recently accused by someone on the right of
being a closet liberal who's trying to destroy the conservative
movement.

So I get attacked from all sides. After ten years, I'm pretty used to
it.

*** 26-Oct-12 World View -- Europe is at a crossroads over Greece

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Wells Fargo, Bancorp and other banks charging 300%+ interest for 'payday loans'
• Netanyahu's government in Israel to move to far right
• New Boeing weapon can target and shut down all electronics
• Europe is at a crossroads over Greece

****
**** Wells Fargo, Bancorp and other banks charging 300%+ interest for 'payday loans'
****


Oh, oh, the Wells Fargo wagon is a-comin' down the street, oh please let it be for me! Oh, oh, the Wells Fargo wagon is a-comin' down the street, I wish I wish I knew what it could be!

Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp are among two banks that have are now
charging 300% interest or more for small short-term loans often called
"payday loans" because the bank recovers the money automatically from
direct deposit accounts, as soon as the borrower receives his weekly
or monthly pay. The loans are fairly low risk for the bank, since
they can recover the loan, plus interest and fees, by directly
debiting the borrowers bank account, and yet the banks are charging
interest rates that are so high as to be in violation of some state
laws. These payday loans are particularly vicious, because the banks
target them at people who don't understand interest rates, of which
there are plenty, and pull them into a vicious cycle where they have
to keep borrowing because each new paycheck keeps getting swallowed up
by the bank. Earlier this year, Wells Fargo was fined $175 million for
defrauding for overcharging minorities during the subprime bubble.
Banksters continue to search for new ways to increase their million
dollary bonuses. Bloomberg

****
**** Netanyahu's government in Israel to move to far right
****

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he will join
forces with his foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, in January's
elections. Lieberman is often referred to as "ultra-nationalist"
because of his inflammatory rhetoric directed at Arabs, including a
proposed law that would require Israelis to sign a loyalty oath or
have their citizenship revoked. According to Netanyahu on Thursday:

"We are facing great challenges and this is the time
to unite forces for the sake of Israel. Therefore Likud and
Yisrael Beitenu [political parties of Netanyahu and Lieberman,
respectively] will run together on the same ticket in the next
elections.

We are asking for a mandate from the public to lead Israel against
security threats, above all preventing Iran from arming itself
with nuclear weapons and the struggle against
terror."

Lieberman himself was a 1978 immigrant from Moldova, and has sought to
represent the more than 1 million immigrants from the former Soviet
Union. Al-Jazeera

****
**** New Boeing weapon can target and shut down all electronics
****

Boeing has successfully tested a new weapon, the Counter-Electronics
High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP), that can target
electronic devices without harming humans or buildings. A plane can
shoot a CHAMPS burst at a compound, and immediately shut down all
electronic equipment, including radar stations. The weapon was
developed to counter "passive radar" systems that many countries are
adopting to defeat American stealth technology. Business Insider

****
**** Europe is at a crossroads over Greece
****


Cracked euro flag (Telegraph)

Officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported to euro
zone financial ministers that Greece's situation is much worse than
previously predicted, and that Greece will badly miss its financial
targets:

"It is clear that Greece is off track and there is no
chance they will cut the debt to 120 percent of GDP in 2020 as
envisaged. It will be rather 136 percent, and this would be under
a positive scenario of a primary budget surplus, a return to
economic growth, and privatisation."

In other words, even in the most unrealistically optimistic
assumptions, the austerity measures already committed by Greece will
fail by a substantial amount to meet Greece's commitment to lower its
debt to 120% of GDP by 2020. If more realistic assumptions are
plugged in, the target will be missed by substantially more.

This news comes at a time when the political situations in both Athens
and Brussels are in total chaos. In Athens, the coalition of prime
minister Antonis Samaras was threatened with collapse, as the
Democratic Left persisted in opposition to the demands of the
"troika" of European leaders for labor reforms that would lay off
public sector works and raise retirement ages. In Brussels, the
question of whether Greece would be granted its requested 2-year
postponement of additional austerity measures was still a subject of
debate. Furthermore, Wednesday's IMF report contained further bad
news: Granting the 2-year extension would require giving Greece an
additional 30 billion euros in bailout money, not just 20 billion
as previous estimated.

As I and other people have been saying for two years, there is no
solution to the problem of Greece's debt in this generational Crisis
era. That is, it's not that politicians are not clever enough to
think of a solution, and it's not that they've thought of two or three
different satisfactory solutions, but can't agree on which one to
implement. It's that no solution exists. This has been apparent for
two years to anyone who does the math.

But now the same thing has become apparent to pretty much everybody,
including people who are incapable of doing any math. There will be a
European summit meeting for four days over the weekend, with plans for
working sessions day and night. My bet is still that they'll find a
way to kick the can down the road a while longer, just allowing the
problem to worsen. But there's a growing opposition to that,
especially from Germany, Finland and the Netherlands, since it's just
"throwing good money after bad." So there's a possibility, though in
my opinion not likely, that after four days and nights of arguing and
haggling and shouting, the European summit leaders may finally
conclude that they have no choice but to throw Greece under the bus.
Reuters and Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bancorp, payday loans,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Avigdor Lieberman,
Counter-Electronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project,
Boeing, CHAMP, Europe, Troika, Greece,
International Monetary Fund, IMF

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*** 27-Oct-12 World View -- U.N. alarmed as ethnic violence grows in western Burma (Myanmar)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A so-called 'truce' in Syria lasts only nanoseconds
• U.N. alarmed as ethnic violence grows in western Burma (Myanmar)

****
**** A so-called 'truce' in Syria lasts only nanoseconds
****


Aftermath of Damascus car bombing on Friday

Lakhdar Brahimi, who recently replaced Kofi Annan as the United
Nations envoy to Syria, entered the world of Alice in Wonderland last
week by begging all sides in Syria to agree to a ceasefire for the
three-day Muslim holiday this weekend. Of course both sides said
they'd agree, but there was barely any ceasefire at all, with each
side blaming the other for breaking the truce. There was fighting
across Syria, and there was a car bombing in Damascus that the Bashar
al-Assad regime blamed on the opposition. However, the al-Assad
regime has lied repeatedly about almost everything, and has set off
car bombs themselves and blamed them on the opposition, so it's quite
possible that Friday's car bombing was perpetrated by the regime.
Either way, the whole cease-fire thing was a joke. Like Kofi Annan's
farcical six-point peace plan, the cease-fire just makes things worse
in Syria by providing the al-Assad regime to continue their massacres
of innocent women and children in their beds. Reuters

****
**** U.N. alarmed as ethnic violence grows in western Burma (Myanmar)
****


Rakhine State in Burma, on the border with Bangladesh (CIA Fact Book)

The United Nations is expressing alarm at the level of ethnic and
religious violence, which has substantially surged in the last four
days in Rakhine State in Western Burma. There was a burst of violence
in June (see "11-Jun-12 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) declares state of emergency over Buddhist/Muslim violence"
), triggered by an alleged rape of a
Buddhist Rakhine girl by Muslim Rohingyas. But this new wave of
violence and massacres is much worse, leaving dozens killed, almost
2000 homes destroyed, and thousands of refugees. Many Rohingyas have
put to sea in boats hoping to reach Bangladesh, but Bangladesh already
has hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas in squalid refugee camps, and
has now closed its borders to fleeing Rohingya refugees.

The Rohingya have a darker skin than Burmese, and they speak a Bengali
dialect. They are, for all practical purposes, a stateless ethnic
group, living on the Bangladesh-Burma border, but rejected by both
countries. In fact, Burma refuses to identify the Rohingya as a
unique ethnic group, preferring to call them Bengali, and referring to
them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Burma is almost entirely
a Buddhist state, including the Rakhine ethnic group that make up most
of the population of Rakhine state.

This presents a good opportunity to explain further the Generational
Dynamics concept of a crisis civil war. A number of people have
questioned why I keep saying that a crisis civil war in Syria is
impossible, and that the conflict going on there could fizzle at any
time. As I've explained many times, a non-crisis war comes from the
politicians, rather than from the people. The Syrian conflict is
being driven by president Bashar al-Assad, and if he were to step down,
it's quite possible that the conflict would fizzle immediately.

But clearly that's not what we're seeing in Rakhine State. There is
no politician, to my knowledge, who is driving this conflict. If
Burma's president Thein Sein were to step down, it would not affect
one bit the fighting between Muslim Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine.
Another difference is that you don't see the U.N. sending envoys like
Kofi Annan or Lakhdar Brahimi to Burma to negotiate a cease-fire --
who would they negotiate with?

Rohingya-Rakhine conflict is coming from the people, and it's not
going to fizzle out. In fact, it's very close to exploding into a
full-scale crisis civil war. BBC and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, Kofi Annan,
Bashar al-Assad, Burma, Myanmar, Rakhine State,
Rohingya, Rakhine, Bangladesh

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Burma.
Always the nightmare.
The potential rice bucket of eastern asia.
Burma.

Originally Posted by Peter Garrret

The tucker box is empty now
The heart of Kelly's country cleared
The gangers on the southern line
Like the steam trains have disappeared
Pelicans glide
Miracles up in the skies
We vote for a government
With axes in it's eyes

Mountains of Burma
The road to Mandalay
In the mountains of Burma
Light years away
Mountains of Burma

Will the sons of Solidarity
Still march on May Day
Will the sisters of the seventies
Still fight for equal pay
There's no-one on the Reeperbahn
No more blankets handed out for land
We feed an economy
It's got blood on it's hands

Mountains of Burma
The road to Mandalay
Mountains of Burma
Light years away
In the mountains of Burma
The road to Mandalay
In the mountains of Burma
Hope you're light years away

Pack your bags full of guns and ammunition
Bills fall due for the industrial revolution
Scorch the earth till the earth surrenders

Soldiers of armies
Storm empty fields
In a traveller's trance
On the way to the high frontier
Sleepwalkers stumble
Cable cars run aground
Imaginary enemies
Form high above the clouds

In the Mountains of Burma...
The road to Mandalay
Mopuntians of Burma
Hope your light years away.

*** 28-Oct-12 World View -- Silvio Berlusconi threatens to bring down Italy's government

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's Imran Khan detained by US immigration during fund-raising trip
• Burma acknowledges a genocidal scorched-earth policy against Muslim Rohingyas
• Former Carter aide calls activist press a 'fundamental threat to democracy'
• Silvio Berlusconi threatens to bring down Italy's government with him
• Barack Obama unable to do math beyond seventh grade

****
**** Pakistan's Imran Khan detained by US immigration during fund-raising trip
****


Imran Khan

Former Pakistani cricket superstar Imran Khan, now an anti-American
"hope and change" Pakistani politician, is visiting the United States
this weekend on a fund-raising tour for his bid to win next year's
Pakistan presidential election. Many expect Khan to win, as he's been
drawing huge crowds. (See "Hope and change Pakistan candidate Imran Khan draws huge crowd in Karachi"
from last November.) On Saturday, Khan was taken off
an international flight from Canada to New York and questioned by US
immigration officials over his views on drone strikes and "holy war."
U.S. immigration authorities did not give the reason for detaining him
briefly, but a spokesman said, "Under US immigration law, applicants
for admission bear the burden of proof to establish that they are
clearly eligible to enter the United States. In order to demonstrate
that they are admissible, the applicant must overcome all grounds of
inadmissibility." Few Americans have the vaguest clue who Imran Khan
is, but moderate Muslim groups in the U.S. know who he is and have
been protesting to US secretary of state Hillary Clinton to revoke
Khan's visa. Guardian (London)

****
**** Burma acknowledges a genocidal scorched-earth policy against Muslim Rohingyas
****

Burma's government has acknowledged that the violence in Rakhine State
in western Burma (Myanmar) is spiraling into genocide and a
scorched-earth program, following the release by Human Rights Watch of
satellite photos of five villages where violence has taken place. As
we reported
yesterday, most of the
violence is being perpetrated by Buddhists in the Rakhine ethnic
group, directed against Muslims in the Rohingya ethnic group.
Independent and Human Rights Watch

****
**** Former Carter aide calls activist press a 'fundamental threat to democracy'
****

Pat Caddell, who was an aide to President Jimmy Carter and who has worked
in several other Democratic administrations, says he is "nauseated" by
by active participation of the mainstream media in covering up any
news, such as the news about Benghazi, that might be harmful to
President Obama's reelection chances. In a speech earlier this week,
he concluded:

"But all I want to conclude to this is that we face a
fundamental danger here. The fundamental danger is this: I talked
about the defense of the First Amendment. The press’s job is to
stand in the ramparts and protect the liberty and freedom of all
of us from a government and from organized governmental power.
When they desert those ramparts and decide that they will now
become active participants, that their job is not simply to tell
you who you may vote for, and who you may not, but, worse—and this
is the danger of the last two weeks—what truth that you may know,
as an American, and what truth you are not allowed to know, they
have, then, made themselves a fundamental threat to the democracy,
and, in my opinion, made themselves the enemy of the American
people. And it is a threat to the very future of this country if
that—we allow this stuff to go on. We have crossed a whole new
and frightening slide on the slippery slope this last two weeks,
and it needs to be talked about."

I can only agree with this. I've written several times in 2007 and
later that NBC News and the New York Times actively sided with
al-Qaeda in Iraq against the United States, and as far as I'm
concerned, they're guilty of treason. Whether Obama or Romney wins on
November 6, the mainstream media will continue to be a danger to our
country. The Gen-Xers at these institutions are behaving just like
Germany's Lost Generation in the 1930s that created the Holocaust.
That's how generational hatred works during generational Crisis eras.
To say that they're a danger to America is not an overstatement.
Accuracy in Media

****
**** Silvio Berlusconi threatens to bring down Italy's government with him
****


Berlusconi glumly waving last November, after being forced out of office (AP)

Italy's colorful former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was convicted
and sentenced to four years of jail time on Friday for corruption.
However, he will appeal the decision and, at age 76, it seems unlikely
that he'll ever go to jail. Puffing with anger, Berlusconi called the
court hearing a fraud, and said, "Ours is not a democracy but a
dictatorship of the judges." He's threatening to withdraw his party's
support from the government of supposedly non-partisan technocrats,
headed by Mario Monti, that took power when he was forced to step down
last year because of the financial crisis. However, Italy's economy
has significantly worsened since Monti took power, as it has in
countries around the eurozone. Berlusconi was prime minister three
times in the past: 1994-5, 2001-6, and 2008-11. While prime minister,
his "bunga bunga" parties with aspiring starlets became world famous.
However, he is also currently on trial, charged with paying for sex
with underage girl and trying to cover it up. He denies any
wrongdoing. BBC

****
**** Barack Obama unable to do math beyond seventh grade
****

Appearing on the Tonight Show earlier this week, President Barack
Obama was asked about helping his daughters with homework, and said:

"Well, the math stuff I was fine with up until about
seventh grade. But Malia is now a freshman in High School and I’m
pretty lost."

This explains a number of things about the last four years. I have no
idea how much math Mitt Romney understands, but it would be nice for
our country's President, whoever he is, to at least be able to do
simple algebra and geometry. In fact, he'd know a lot more about how
the world works if he understood a little calculus as well.

What does it say about Harvard Law School that someone can graduate
barely able to do 7th grade math? As an MIT graduate, I can say that
this confirms a number of things that MIT students say about Harvard.

As I've written many times, the analysts on CNBC are too stupid to be
able to a simple division of prices by earnings, to get a correct
price/earnings ratio. They earn multi-million dollar bonuses, but
they can't do simple math. Maybe they all went to Harvard Business
School. Daily Mail


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Canada,
Burma, Myanmar, Rakhine State, Rohingya,
Pat Caddell, Jimmy Carter

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*** 29-Oct-12 World View -- Europeans demand sovereign control of Greece

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China and Japan continue to prepare for war over Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
• Chinese xenophobia towards Japan skyrockets amid noodle wars
• Europeans demand sovereign control of Greece

****
**** Europeans demand sovereign control of Greece
****


Athens: Riot police clash with protesters last week (AP)

An interim report by the leaders of the EU "troika" of organizations
bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European
Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) --
indicates that a "kick the can down the road" strategy is not
currently being considered. Germany is refusing to consider any
further "haircut", like the one earlier this year that reduced the
principal of Greece's investors, such as banks, pension funds and
insurers, by a full 75%. Those sources of money have been squeezed
dry. Instead, a plan is being considered that:

• Requires Greece to implement a long list of 150 additional
  reforms, beyond those already agreed;
  
• Forces the implementation of the reforms by holding any bailout
  money in a special account under Troika control;
  
• Gives the Troika the power to raise taxes in Greece without Greek
  parliamentary approval;
  
• Requires passage of new laws that make it easier to first
  workers;
  
• Adjusts the minimum wage downwards.

In return for this drastic loss of sovereignty, Greece will be given
two extra years, until 2016, to meet its budget targets. However, the
cost of the delay may be 38 billion euros, higher than the 30 billion
euros announced last week, and even higher than the 20 billion euros
announced several months ago.

Separately, Mario Draghi, president of European Central Bank (ECB),
warned both Greece and Spain that they must be willing to give
something up if they want a bailout. "Countries have to give up part
of their sovereignty if we want to restore trust in the eurozone," he
said.

There is apparently only one alternative being considered: Allowing
Greece to leave the eurozone, and return to the drachma currency.
According to one official:

"The austerity needed to restore wage and price
competitiveness will break society first. We are sacrificing a
generation of young people who cannot find work, and all in the
name of the euro. It is irresponsible. A euro exit would offer
hope at last."

Russia's president Vladimir Putin agreed, saying Greece would "have a
way out" if it could return to the drachma and devalue. Telegraph

****
**** China and Japan continue to prepare for war over Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
****

Japan's military, the Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF), is cancelling
joint amphibious military exercises with the United States to defend
the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. The joint exercises have been scheduled
for a long time, but Japan is canceling them out of sensitivity to
China. However, the GSDF is planning to develop its own amphibious
capabilities, so that it won't have to depend on the U.S. to help it
defend the islands. The GSDF has never had to develop large-scale
amphibious landing operations in the past, since up till now, the GSDF
has been strictly limited to the defense of Japanese territories.
However, China is watching these activities very closely, and is
preparing it's own military forces.

"We are watching very closely what action Japan might
take regarding the Diaoyu islands and their adjacent waters. The
action that Japan might take will shape China's countermeasures.”

If Japan continues down its current wrong path and takes more
erroneous actions and creates incidents regarding the Diaoyu
Islands and challenges China, China will definitely take strong
measures to respond to that.

There is no lack of countermeasures China might take in response,”
he added.

We have the confidence and the ability to uphold the country's
sovereignty and territorial integrity. No amount of foreign
threats or pressure will shake the resolve of the Chinese
government and people."

Japan is patrolling the islands with its coast guard ships, and China
has sent its own warships to patrol the islands. So far, they've had
only verbal confrontations, ordering each other to get away from the
islands, but both sides are prepared for battle. Asahi Shimbum (Tokyo) and China Post (Taipei)

****
**** Chinese xenophobia towards Japan skyrockets amid noodle wars
****


Master Kang Artificial Pork Flavor Instant Noodles are caught in the crossfire between China and Japan

The press is full of anecdotal stories about enormous Chinese hatred
directed toward the Japanese.

Tingyi, the leading Chinese instant noodle producer, has had sales of
its "Master Kang" instant noodles because the company is partially
owned by a Japanese firm. Protesters are holding up flags saying,
"Boycott Japanese products, boycott Master Kang." Tingyi is making
accusations of corporate sabotage -- it said that its main competitor,
Uni-President, maker of "Tong-I Minced Pork Noodles," is spreading
lies that Tingyi is controlled by Japan. Tingyi is getting even by
distributing leaflets claiming that Uni-President is also a Japanese
firm. Global Times

A Shanghai-based American expat reports about Furenju Realty, a real
estate broker with a sign on their store front window saying, "We will
not do business with Japanese pigs!" He tells of the nasty encounter
he had with the racist agency over plans to rent a new place to live.
Shanghaiist

Sales of Nissan and Toyota cars in China have plummeted because of the
islands dispute, and both companies have suspended shipments of
finished vehicles at least until January. In fiscal 2011, Nissan sold
1.247 million vehicles in China, including luxury models exported from
Japan. Nissan's sales in China account for about 25% of the maker's
total global sales. Asahi Shimbum (Tokyo)

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these anecdotes
reflect surging xenophobia and nationalism in China -- something will
keep on surging until it leads to war.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu,
Ground Self-Defense Force, GSDF, Tingyi noodles, Uni-President,
Master Kang Artificial Pork Flavor Instant Noodles,
Furenju Realty, Shanghai, Nissan, Toyota,
Greece, Troika, EC, ECB, IMF, Germany, Mario Draghi
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Spain

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