Perhaps there will be a return to use of vaccuum tube electronics for critical uses, such as radar and (low bandwidth) communications. Which would remove the motive for CHAMP/EMP type weapons-the fancy stuff would be fried, but the military and emergency service might still operate.

Joint drills.

Several web sites have mentioned that Russia is reinforcing its defenses at the islands. What are the issues?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Several web sites have mentioned that Russia is reinforcing its defenses at the islands. What are the issues?

Japan is in conflict with other countries over islands that it took
control of during its "imperialist" period

* The Kuril islands vs Russia
* The Senkaku/Diaoyu islands vs China (and Taiwan)
* The Takeshima/Dokdo islands versus Korea

This will all be "settled" by the next war.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 19-Oct-12 World View -- Nationalism and Neo-Nazi violence increase across Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tens of thousands protest against austerity in Greece
• Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party gains support in Greece
• Greeks shocked at Golden Dawn attack on Corpus Christi play performance
• Hungary's neo-Nazi Jobbik party demonstrates against Roma Gypsies
• Bitter Germany/France divisions mark European summit

****
**** Tens of thousands protest against austerity in Greece
****

In austerity-ravaged Greece, neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn is on the rise. Their MPs give fascist salutes, while on the streets black-shirted vigilantes beat up immigrants. And some of their most enthusiastic supporters are in the police

Story here.

*** 30-Oct-12 World View -- Banksters desperately seek to save Europe's carbon trading system

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Banksters desperately seek to save Europe's carbon trading system
• Libor-rigging banks face rash of lawsuits
• Japan's economy may be in an inescapable decline
• Poor health and draft-dodging plague Russia's army

****
**** Banksters desperately seek to save Europe's carbon trading system
****


Smokestacks in China

The plan that was supposed to save the world from climate change
disaster, Europe's Emissions Trading System (ETS), which allows
companies to pay for carbon credits that permit the company to emit
carbon, is close to collapse. The whole program was poorly designed
in the first place by climate change fanatics, and Europe's financial
crisis has made carbon credits so cheap that no one has any real
incentive to cut back, even if they wanted to.

I've taken no position on whether climate change is occurring or
whether human beings caused it. Some people claim it's "proven
science," but I've read other articles that claim that global warming
ended ten years ago, and that as the Arctic has gotten warmer, the
Antarctic has gotten equivalently colder. I also take note of the
fact that climate change fanatics never mention the Antarctic.

Whether global warming is occurring or not, or whether humans caused
it or not, is irrelevant to the discussion. There is no technology on
the horizon that's going to reduce carbon emissions. It's just a
scam. Americans and Europeans will not give up their cars, China will
not give up its massively growing collection of coal mines, and
hundreds of millions of Africans and Indians will not give up cooking
with their carbon-emitting charcoal stoves.

Basically, the climate change fanatics are like someone who, a
century ago, was worried that the world was going to be covered with
horse crap, and horse crap credits should be traded to eliminate the
problem. The automobile came along to solve the horse crap problem,
and it would have come along with or without horse crap credits.

I wrote about this subject in December 2007 ( "UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce"
)

At that time, I wrote a lengthy profile about a bankster named Louis
Redshaw, head of environmental trading at Barclay's Bank. This was
just after the global credit crunch had begun, and the subprime real
estate market was crashing. I quoted Redshaw at the time as saying
that carbon credit derivatives were going to make banks a lot more
money than the subprime mortgage derivatives had. Even in 2007, it
was pretty obvious that climate change was a financial scam, and that
the people driving it were banksters like Redshaw, and wealthy carbon
emitters like Al Gore and the people lounging in air-conditioned
conference rooms in Bali, attending a climate change conference. It
was all pretty sickening then, but it's even more sickening now.

I quoted an article as saying:

"Fans reckon trading volumes will soon be worth
many billions of pounds per year. James Cameron at the investment
boutique Climate Change Capital said: “I think this is likely to
get bigger than the interest-rate-swaps market within 10 to 15
years, particularly once America joins in.” ...

Louis Redshaw at Barclays Capital said: “We were the first
British bank involved and are now the biggest banking
participant. We handle transactions that are many multiples of the
standard market size of 10,000 tonnes. A million-tonne transaction
is not out of the question."

Now we can connect a couple of dots to see how sickening this all is.

Interest-rate swaps are a market with over $300 trillion dollars in
synthetic security assets. Cameron and Redshaw want to create a
carbon trading market that was bigger than that.

BUT, we learned a few months ago that Barclays bank was at the heart
of a scheme, from 2004-2008, to manipulate Libor interest rates, and
this affects the values of interest rate swaps. (See "17-Jul-12 World View -- Barclay's COO admits having rigged Libor, thought it was OK"
from July.)

So at the time that banksters like Redshaw at Barclays were planning
to use carbon trading to create a market bigger than interest rate
swaps, the rigging of interest rate swaps was at its peak, and the
banksters at Barclays would have known this. They knew that Barclays
bank was already defrauding the public by using Libor to manipulate
the prices of interest rates swaps, and they almost assuredly were
dreaming up a similar scheme to defraud the public using synthetic
securities based on carbon credits.

This is why I keep saying: The same Generation-X banksters that caused
the financial crisis are still in the same jobs, finding new ways to
defraud people, and Generation-X prosecutors refuse to investigate and
prosecute other Gen-Xers, even for obvious crimes. After all these
years, not a single bankster has gone to jail for the financial
crisis, even though the evidence of massive, purposeful fraud is
abundant. These leaves the banksters free to create new and bigger
frauds, secure in the knowledge that they won't be prosecuted.

So, the European politicians and banksters are now looking for ways to
salvage the collapsing Emissions Trading System (ETS), and they plan
to do it with harsh new emission control regulations that will stifle
business further, at a time when Europe's economy is collapsing. Does
everyone understand why I call these people idiots? Spiegel

****
**** Libor-rigging banks face rash of lawsuits
****

In a case coming to court in London on Monday, Guardian Care Homes is
claiming that they were defrauded by Barclays Bank, when the bank sold
Guardian interest rate swaps during the credit bubble. Interest rate
swaps are like insurance policies that pay off if interest rates go
too far up or down. They're used by companies that want to protect
themselves from losing money if that happens. Interest rates swaps
are priced by an algorithm that includes the Libor rate, and Barclays
bank admitted in July that it had fraudulently manipulated the Libor
rate from 2004-2008 for its own gain. (See "17-Jul-12 World View -- Barclay's COO admits having rigged Libor, thought it was OK"
from July.) Guardian is
suing Barclays for 12 million pounds, claiming that it lost that much
money from Barclays' Libor rigging. There are $300 trillion in
interest rate swap contracts in portfolios around the world, and some
experts claim that $230 trillion of those swaps were tied to Libor.
All of those contracts are suspect because of Libor rigging by
Barclays and 16 other banks. Other lawsuits are still in the planning
stages, and some estimates are that banks will pay $6 billion in
damages collectively. But the fallout goes beyond litigation costs.
London's banks in particular have had to set aside billions of pounds
to cover potential customer claims, and London's reputation has been
severely damaged as a world financial center. Bloomberg

****
**** Japan's economy may be in an inescapable decline
****

With Japan's economy continuing to worsen, mainstream economists are
increasingly accepting the belief that Japan is not just in a
prolonged slump but also in an inescapable decline. Frankly, I hadn't
expected this. Japan had a generational stock market and real estate
crash in 1990, following a huge bubble throughout the 1980s, and I
would have thought that by this time Japan would have recovered from
it. (See "Japan's real estate crash may finally end after 16 years"
from 2007.)

But maybe I should have expected this result. After all, America's
stock market crash began in 1929, and there was no full recovery until
the early 1950s -- at least partially because of World War II. So
perhaps a country can't recover from a generational financial crisis
without a generational crisis war. At any rate, Japan has the highest
amount of debt of any country in the world in relation to GDP --
public debt is 229% of GDP. For comparison, Greece is ranked second
at 163%, and the United States is at 103%. And Japan is headed for a
major war with China. Washington Post

****
**** Poor health and draft-dodging plague Russia's army
****

20-60% of Russia's teenagers, male and female, are unfit for military
duty because of reproductive illnesses, stemming from harmful habits,
abortions, serious illnesses, and communicable diseases. This is one
of the reasons being blamed for the failure of a four-year program to
modernize Russia's armed forces. As a result, Russia is being forced
to draft people as old as 27 years. Even so, large scale
draft-dodging among the recruitment pool means that the army is far
from its staffing goals, with the "permanent readiness" brigades may
be undermanned by at least 30 percent. Jamestown and Healthy Russian Foundation



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Emissions Trading System, ETS,
climate change, Europe, Louis Redshaw, Al Gore,
James Cameron, Barclays, Libor,
Guardian Care Homes, Japan, China, Russia

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a) Russia, and the USSR before it, has always drafted up to 27 year of age.
b) most people don't want to get drafted. For 50 bucks, a doctor can write a note explaining that you are 'medically unfit'. At my plant, every single one of the perfectly-healthy 18-27-year-old guys working for me made at least two visits to the doctor a year to spend their fifty bones and get their doctor's note so they could stay out of the army. As with all other government statistics, the ridiculous 'unfit for duty' one needs to be considered in the context of where the information came from, and where that entity got it.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> a) Russia, and the USSR before it, has always drafted up to 27
> year of age.

> b) most people don't want to get drafted. For 50 bucks, a doctor
> can write a note explaining that you are 'medically unfit'. At my
> plant, every single one of the perfectly-healthy 18-27-year-old
> guys working for me made at least two visits to the doctor a year
> to spend their fifty bones and get their doctor's note so they
> could stay out of the army. As with all other government
> statistics, the ridiculous 'unfit for duty' one needs to be
> considered in the context of where the information came from, and
> where that entity got it.

Thanks for that information. I provided two sources for the "unfit"
statistics, one saying 20%, and the other saying 40-60%, so I reported
the range. However, your explanation makes a lot more sense than
either of those sources.

According to the Jamestown article, Russians are very unhappy with
drafting 27 year olds, and Russia can't afford to pay for a
"professional army." Even worse, as I've reported at other times, the
mutual xenophobia between ethnic Russians and North Caucasians is so
great that they can't serve together, and this probably adds to the
general disdain for the army. I wonder what kind of crisis would
cause ethnic Russians to unify and be willing to serve again. I
assume that a major crisis in the North Caucasus would be a major
crisis in the army as well.

*** 31-Oct-12 World View -- Hurricane Sandy a new disaster for Haiti

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hurricane Sandy a new disaster for Haiti
• Hillary in Algeria to discuss military invasion of Mali
• Al-Assad bombs Damascus, to celebrate end of Syria's 'ceasefire'

****
**** Hurricane Sandy a new disaster for Haiti
****


The only good thing about this picture is that the floods are hiding the piles of garbage littering the streets

Hurricane Sandy has been disastrous for the eastern United States,
destroying the New Jersey shore where I grew up, but not nearly as
disastrous as it's been for Haiti. Haiti has still not come close to
recovering from the January, 2010, earthquake that killed hundreds of
thousands of Haitians, and collapsed most buildings, leaving thousands
of people buried under the wreckage and hundreds of thousands without
homes. (See "Haiti, seething with ethnic violence, may require US forces for a long time"
)
The United Nations humanitarian team from Nepal brought cholera with
them, and that's spread across the country. There are still 270,000
Haitians living in refugee camps, and Hurricane Sandy has just been
one more disaster piled on a stream of previous disasters, killing 54
and leaving refugee camps flooded. But the worst may be yet to come:
the floods are spreading cholera again, and there has been massive
destruction of crops, raising the specter of famine, and a repeat of
the violent "food price" riots of 2008. Guardian (London) and Reuters

****
**** Hillary in Algeria to discuss military invasion of Mali
****

With terrorists linked to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
increasingly taking control of the northern two-thirds of the country
of Mali, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is visiting Algeria
to discuss regional plans for military intervention. The plan is for
the nations of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas)
to supply 3,300 troops to retrain Mali's army and help retrain the
north. These forces will depend heavily on help from Algeria for
military intelligence and logistics. The French are playing a heavy
role in preparing the Ecowas force, and this is causing growing unease
among Algerians who presumably fear that their formal colonial power,
whom they only got rid of in 1962, will refuse to leave after the
military action has ended. For that reason, Hillary Clinton is
promising greater United States involvement in the military effort, to
reduce the concerns of the Algerians. VOA

****
**** Al-Assad bombs Damascus, to celebrate end of Syria's 'ceasefire'
****

About 500 people were killed over the weekend, during the so-called
ceasefire negotiated by U.N. envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi. To
celebrate the end of the ceasefire, the regime of president Bashar
al-Assad bombed opposition-held territory in Damascus, and the rebel
opposition claimed responsibility for the assassination of al-Assad's
air force general, Abdullah Mahmud al-Khalidi. BBC and
Daily Star (Beirut)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Haiti, New Jersey, Hurricane Sandy,
Mali, Algeria, Hillary Clinton, France,
Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS,
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Lakhdar Brahimi,
Abdullah Mahmud al-Khalidi

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*** 1-Nov-12 World View -- Turkey asks Germany for help with PKK terrorists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey asks Germany for help with PKK terrorists
• Erdogan's visit to Germany highlights some major differences
• Eurozone unemployment reaches new historic high
• Still no progress on Greece's next bailout payment

****
**** Turkey asks Germany for help with PKK terrorists
****


Erdogan and Merkel at press conference in Berlin on Wednesday. dapd

In a visit to German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, Turkey's
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked for Germany's help in
fighting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a terrorist group in
Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iraq seeking a separate state of Kurdistan.
Erdogan is complaining that Germany permits PKK fundraising activities
to occur in Germany. Erdogan also complains that many western
countries refuse extradition requests for people wanted in Turkey on
terrorism charges despite extradition agreements they have with Turkey
even though his government frequently approves the extradition of
criminals to these countries. Erdogan's case is difficult for some
people to accept, because of Erdogan's open support of Palestinians in
Gaza, some of whom have been conducting terrorist attacks against
Israel. Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** Erdogan's visit to Germany highlights some major differences
****

Athough Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkey's Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan were all smiles for the press conferences and
photo ops during Erdogan's visit to Berlin on Wednesday, the strains
were evident. The biggest faux pas occurred in their joint press
conference, when Erdogan said that it had been a mistake to allow
"South Cyprus" into the European Union, and he added the Merkel shared
that view -- which is not true. Cyprus has been a sore point between
Turkey and the Europeans ever since the Cyprus war of 1974, which
partitioned the island into separate parts, controlled respectively by
Greece and Turkey. The EU recognizes the Greek government as the
official government of Cyprus, and has admitted that government to the
EU.

Turkey formally applied to join the European Union in 1987, but
negotiations have frequently broken down. Erdogan is unhappy about
the treatment of 3 million people of Turkish origin living in Germany.
On the other side, the EU has complained breaches of freedom of speech
and the right to free assembly in Turkey, and says that Turkey's
democratic reforms have come to a standstill. Erdogan says that the
EU will "lose Turkey," unless it's admitted by 2023. Spiegel

****
**** Eurozone unemployment reaches new historic high
****

The unemployment level in the 17-country eurozone hit 11.6% in
September, a new historic high in a continuing series of historic
highs, with youth unemployment at 23.3%. Spain's unemployment rate is
26%, and Greece's is 25%. It's over 50% for young people in both
countries. At the same time, new figures indicate that the inflation
rate is lower than expected. The eurozone continues its deflationary
spiral, while politicians pray for a miracle. Bloomberg

****
**** Still no progress on Greece's next bailout payment
****

With Greece about to go bankrupt in mid-November unless it receives
the next bailout payment, Greece revealed on Wednesday that it will
overshoot its deficit and debt targets again next year because of a
deeper than forecast recession. There was no progress on negotiations
over the bailout because the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
remained at loggerheads with Germany on the need for European
government lenders to participate. (The new acronym to learn is OSI,
which stands for "official sector involvement. Earlier this year, the
big issue was PSI, or "private sector involvement".) A final decision
on the bailout will be made at the finance ministers' face-to-face
meeting on November 12. Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Turkey,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Angela Merkel,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Cyprus, European Union,
unemployment, Spain, Greece, bailout

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*** 2-Nov-12 World View -- Millions of South Carolina residents at risk of identity theft

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 'Lagarde list' scandal may put corrupt Greek politicians in jail
• Syrian refugees in Jordan face increasing hostility
• Millions of South Carolina residents at risk of identity theft

****
**** 'Lagarde list' scandal may put corrupt Greek politicians in jail
****


Costas Vaxevanis, leaving court in Athens on Monday (Reuters)

As Europe's economy continues to circle the drain in a deflationary
spiral, here's a bizarre story that might end up sending corrupt Greek
banksters and politicians to jail. Christine Lagarde is currently the
head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but in 2010 she was the
finance minister of France. At that time, she obtained a thumb drive
containing the names of 2,059 Greeks with bank accounts in HSBC's bank
in Switzerland, and gave the thumb drive to Greek government
officials, so that they could be investigated for using the Swiss bank
accounts to evade taxes.

Well, Greek officials never did anything with the list, and at times
claimed that it had been lost or misplaced. Finally, the list fell
into the hands of Costas Vaxevanis, editor of the "Hot Doc" weekly
magazine, and he published the list. But instead of investigating the
2,000 for possible tax evasion, furious government officials
brought criminal charges against Vaxevanis for invasion of privacy,
and threatened with two years in jail.

Vaxevanis might well have gone to jail, but the case got international
attention, and infuriated ordinary Greeks who said that the
politicians were prosecuting him because they were embarrassed. On
Thursday, the court declared Vaxevanis to be innocent, but that's not
the end of the scandal over Lagarde's list. There are many prominent
politicians and businessmen on the list, and they are going to be
targeted by the far left as causing Greece's problems, just as the far
right blames Greece's problems on illegal immigrants. Al-Jazeera and Telegraph

****
**** Syrian refugees in Jordan face increasing hostility
****

There are 200,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan, 30,000 of them in the
Zaatari Refugee Camp. The Syrians say that the camp has become
essentially a prison camp, where they're fed dirty food and are
treated "worse than animals." As a result, some Syrians are opting to
return to Syria. According to one, "We face a slow death here, or a
fast death over there." BBC

****
**** Millions of South Carolina residents at risk of identity theft
****

A cyber attack of "foreign origin" on South Carolina's Department of
Revenue taxpayer data base has permitted 3.6 million social security
numbers and 387,000 credit cards numbers to be stolen. In addition,
data from 657,000 businesses has also been compromised. The breach
occurred on August 27, but was not discovered until weeks later, on
October 10, and only made public a couple of days ago. Governor Nikki
Haley has abandoned political campaigning to give full attention to
the breach. The state has since teamed up with Dun & Bradstreet to
provide free fraud and identity theft monitoring. However, residents
have to sign up to get the free services. If you're a South Carolina
taxpayer, you should do so immediately. ZDNet

Although the attack is still under investigation, it appears that the
breach was accomplished through a fairly common "sql code injection"
attack. However, information so far indicates that the data base was
set up in a fairly shoddy manner, with little attention given to
security. For example, 3.6 million social security numbers and
387,000 credit card numbers were stolen. THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
ENCRYPTED, so that they would be useless to an attacker who stole
them. In the last ten years, I've found that a lot of younger Gen-X
programmers have little regard for security, and I've even seen cases
where they've actually removed security control because they thought
that all Boomers who advocate security controls are full of crap.
This is a major problem in the computer industry, and we're going to
see a lot more disasters like the one in South Carolina. Dark Reading


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde list,
Greece, Costas Vaxevanis, Hot Doc,
Syria, Jordan, Zaatari Refugee Camp,
South Carolina, identity theft, Nikki Haley
sql code injection

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*** 3-Nov-12 World View -- New charges put Barclays at center of climate change financial scam

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In historic shift, Mahmoud Abbas gives up 'right of return' for Palestinians
• Arab public opinion turns dramatically against Iran
• New charges put Barclays at center of climate change financial scam
• Global warming unchanged since 1997

****
**** In historic shift, Mahmoud Abbas gives up 'right of return' for Palestinians
****


Mahmoud Abbas at United Nations in September (RFERL)

In an interview on Israeli television, Palestinian Authority leader
Mahmoud Abbas effectively gave up the "right of return" in
negotiations with Israel on a Palestinian state. During the 1948
was between Jews and Arabs, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians
fled their homes in what is now Israel, and many of their descendants
still live in refugee camps in countries in the region. The "right
of return" is a demand that all of these refugees should be allowed
to return to their ancestral homes, and this has been a constant
but unrealistic demand in all negotiations. However, Abbas
was asked about his birthplace, Safed, now a town in northern
Israel. He said:

"I am a refugee but I am living in Ramallah. I believe
that the West Bank and Gaza is Palestine. And the other parts is
Israel. I want to see Safed. It is my right to see it but not to
live there."

By saying that it is no longer his right to live in Safed, he's
essentially conceding that the right of return is unrealistic.

However, a number of other Arab leaders decried Abbas' statement.
Gaza's Hamas ruler Ismail Haniyeh said:

"It is not possible for any person, regardless of who
he is ... to give up a hand's width of this Palestinian land, or
to give up the right of return to our homes from which we were
forced out."

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said:

"Abbas’s statements where he considered that Palestine
is just the occupied territories in 1967 are unpatriotic
statements and means cancelation for the 'right of return.' These
statements reflect Abbas’s culture and will never reflect the
stand of the Palestinian nation."

As we explained in "24-Oct-12 World View -- Qatar breaks Gaza blockade
and replaces Iran as Hamas's benefactor"
recently, Hamas is displacing the Palestinian
Authority as the most important representatives of the Palestinians in
the Arab world. BBC and
AP

****
**** Arab public opinion turns dramatically against Iran
****

When analyzing current events from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, I'm less interested in what politicians say than in what
generations of people think, as it's the latter that will determine
events. Particularly important to note is a dramatic change in public
opinion, when it occurs, because it could portend a war or other
change in public policies.

A Cairo conference last week, widely covered in Arab television
and print media, examined the "Iranian Agenda in the Arab World."
In the past, most Arab public opinion was sympathetic to Iran,
perceiving it as a victim of the "Great Satan" (United States)
and Israel.

But this sympathy for Iran has entirely vanished in the Arab world, as
a result of Iran's support of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and
his regime of torture and extermination of innocent Arab women and
children. The general view in the Arab world is that there is
no excuse whatsoever to support al-Assad, and such support couldn
not even be justified if it served the purpose of resisting Israeli
occupation.

The conference concluded that Iran and Israel are two faces
of the same coin:

• They're both occupying Arab lands.
  
• They both humiliate Palestinians.
  
• They both violate all kinds of international laws.
  
• They both use espionage and spies to destabilize Arab
  countries.
  
• Both countries operate with a Mafioso mentality in the
  region.
  
• Neither is interested in the prosperity of the region.
  
• They both strongly oppose any comprehensive and just peace, and
  play hard to prevent it.

Currently Iran occupies islands that belong to the UAE, claims that
Bahrain in its entirety is an Iranian province that must be taken
back, uses its arms and militias as proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain,
Palestine, Kuwait, Syria and other countries, divides Arab societies
on sectarian faults and inflames sectarian sentiments.

This is a good time to repeat my expectation that in the coming Clash
of Civilizations world war, Iran will be allied with India, Israel,
Russia and the West, while the Sunni Arab countries will be allied
with Pakistan and China. Journal of Turkish Weekly

****
**** New charges put Barclays at center of climate change financial scam
****

A couple of days ago I posted "30-Oct-12 World View -- Banksters
desperately seek to save Europe's carbon trading system" , relating the "climate change"
financial scam to manipulation of Libor by Barclays Bank. The article
focused on the plan by Barclays bankster Louis Redshaw to create
hundreds of trillions of dollars in carbon trade derivative
securities, and use them to make more money than Barclays was making
with interest rate swaps, which Barclays was manipulating by
manipulating the Libor rate in the 2005-2008 time period.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proposed
fining Barclays $470 million for a different scam: During the years
2006-2008, Barclays was manipulating the prices of electricity in
California. They would take a daily loss on the trading of physical
electricity in the California markets, but make a lot more money in
"financial swaps" -- synthetic securities that were also tied to the
prices of electricity. So they used two fraudulent transactions to
bet against themselves. They would lose a little money by "crapping
on" physical electricity trades, and they would make a lot more money
by collecting on the synthetic security trades.

The Barclays traders were veterans of Mirant, one of the companies
involved with the Enron scandal that was fined hundreds of millions of
dollars for manipulating power prices in the California power crisis
of 2000-2001.

So now we have the following:

• Barclays was manipulating Libor in 2007 to make money on
  interest rate swaps.
  
• Barclays was manipulating energy prices in 2007 to make money on
  financial swaps related to energy.
  
• Barclays wanted to make money in 2007 by selling financial swaps
  related to carbon trading (which could also have been related to their
  manipulation of energy prices)

So Barclays Bank apparently was at the center of the whole "climate
change" financial scam. Undoubtedly scammers like Al Gore were poised
to make millions if they could get this trading scheme off the ground.

The one thing that the scam needed most of all was United States
passage of the "cap and trade" law that would pour billions of dollars
into the banksters' scheme. In 2007, the climate change scammers were
absolutely furious at President Bush, and were screaming at the tops
of their lungs about how he was sabotaging the world and humanity for
not backing the law. But what they were really furious about is that
he was sabotaging their million dollar commissions and bonuses. In
reality, the climate change scammers couldn't have cared less if some
South Pacific islanders drowned; in fact, they'd welcome it, because
killing off a few islanders would only make them more money.

I think that this is potentially a very big international news story,
but no one in the media is going to investigate these allegations
because the climate change myth and Al Gore have achieved god-like
status, and I certainly don't have the resources or contacts to
investigate it in depth myself, as much as I'd like to.
Reuters and U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (PDF)
and FT Alphaville and Reuters

****
**** Global warming unchanged since 1997
****

There has been no net global warming in the last 16 years and, in
fact, the global temperature today is the same as it was in 1997.
Climate change scammers always talk about how the Arctic is getting
warming, but they ignore the Antarctic, which has been setting records
for coldness and sea ice. Basically, the climate change scammers and
the mainstream media are lying about scientific data, by purposely
omitting the Antarctic from their claims. Daily Mail and Forbes


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mahmoud Abbas, right of return, Israel,
Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, Sami Abu Zuhri,
Qatar, Iran, Egypt, Barclays Bank, climate change,
Louis Redshaw, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,
Enron, Mirant, George Bush, global warming, Antarctic

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*** 4-Nov-12 World View -- Chinese Communist Party prepares for an explosive Politburo election

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Chinese Communist Party prepares for an explosive Politburo election
• Putin's disappearance may be related to his day as leader of the cranes

****
**** Chinese Communist Party prepares for an explosive Politburo election
****


Politburo Standing Committee

Pundits give many reasons why Republicans and Democrats are unable to
compromise in America today, but from the point of view of
generational theory, the reason is pretty simple. In the 1980s,
President Ronald Reagan was able to unite the Republicans and the
Democrats to cooperate with each other, following the chaos of
America's generational Awakening era. They cooperated to change the
Social Security system to make it a sounder system. After that, they
cooperated again to specify new rules to control the budget deficit.
Compromise was still possible in 1996, when Democratic President Bill
Clinton, saying that "the era of big government is over," cooperated
with the Republican congress to eliminate the welfare entitlement.
Those compromises were possible because they were led by World War II
survivors, people who were capable of putting the country ahead of
politics.

Today, the WW II survivors are mostly gone, the current Gen-X and
Boomer politicians have no personal memory of the horrors of WW II,
and so are incapable of putting their country ahead of anything, even
their own greed and hatred. I can write that we're headed for a new
Clash of Civilizations world war that will be much worse than WW II,
but the reaction of most people is not to deal with the message, but
to shun the messenger. The same is true in any generational Crisis
era. Just google the words "fdr scandals" to read about the
bitterness of the 1930s, America's last generational Crisis era. And
of course, the conflicts of the preceding generational Crisis era led
to the American Civil War.

The same is true in China. During Deng Xiaoping's era in the 1980s,
the survivors of Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49) were still in
charge, and compromise was possible. Deng, who in some ways can be
thought of as China's Ronald Reagan, was able to unite competing
factions after the country had been split by the disastrous
"cultural revolution" of China's generational Awakening era. But
today, those survivors are all gone, and all that people can do is
look wistfully back and wonder why there's no Deng Xiaoping figure
leading the country and able to unite it today.

Managing by "consensus" has been the highest goal of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) since Mao's days. That means that there might
be disagreement at first among the members of the Politburo Standing
Committee (PSC) but once a decision is made, then no one disagrees
with it, at least in public. Every ten years, there is a generational
change in China, and a new PSC is chosen. In the past, the choice has
always been by consensus. This time, the choice will be made by
people growing up after Mao's Communist Revolution. Like America's
politicians today, they'll put personal greed ahead of their country.

It is apparently a foregone conclusion that Xi Jinping will be chosen
as the new president of China, replacing Hu Jintao. But there are
only seven seats available in the PSC, and ten candidates for them,
and the battles for those seats may be bloody. But unlike Deng and
Hu, Xi has been unable to bring about a consensus. He's proposing a
radical idea: A differential voting scheme that will select the 7
winners from the 10 candidates. A voting scheme is a perfectly
ordinary solution in the West, but it's anathema in China, which is
supposed to rule by "consensus."

There's only one political party in China -- the CCP -- but for
this election, there are two major factions within the CCP:

• The "princelings," mostly sons of the survivors of Mao's
  revolution. Bo Xilai was (is?) one of the princelings, but he was
  thrown out of the running earlier this year by a major scandal,
  possibly the biggest scandal in the CCP's history. (Recall that I
  referred you to FDR's scandals above.) However, Bo was a very
  powerful figure before his demise, and there are many bitter
  supporters who did not want to see him go.
  
• The "tuanpai," people, now grown up, with ties to the Communist
  Youth League (CYL), the power base for Hu Jintao. The CYL tuanpai
  have been growing in power, and the Bo scandal has weakened his
  opposition. Hu and his partner, prime minister Wen Jiabao, are
  expected to use this power to put their own people in, and shut out
  the princelings and Bo supporters as much as possible.

Into this potentially bloody situation, a new bombshell exploded a
couple of weeks ago: A long New York Times feature that said that Wen
Jiabao was a corrupt official who used his powers to channel billions
of dollars to his family members. At a time when China is close to
civil war between the mostly poor "peasants," and the generally
wealthy and entitled CCP members, this has infuriated the public so
much that the CCP shut down the entire New York Times website in
China. But followers of Bo continued to circulate the incriminating
article on Weibo, the Chinese Twitter, and Bo supporters are expected
to use the accusations against Wen to claim that corruption is common
in the CCP, and that the accusations against Bo are not so
special. Straits Times (Singapore) and Asia Times and
People's Daily (Beijing)

****
**** Putin's disappearance may be related to his day as leader of the cranes
****


Putin, dressed as a bird, flies in motorized hang glider with cranes in September (Ria Novosti)

The usually ostentatious president Vladimir Putin of Russia has
remained almost completely out of sight for the last few weeks,
causing Moscow to buzz about the state of his health.

The greatest speculation is that he suffered a back injury during a
publicity stunt last summer that was so ridiculous as to be almost
unbelievable, but you can't make this stuff up. Putin decided to
become leader of a wedge of white crane birds, to help them migrate.
He "disguised" himself as a mama crane by wearing a beak, a white robe
and a helmet, and steered a hang glider through the air, leading some
cranes.

Unfortunately, his hang glider apparently had a hard landing, and
Putin may have hurt his back. (There's no word about whether the
cranes also had a hard landing.)

Russians are cynical about their leaders' health, details of which are
usually kept top secret. Leonid Brezhnev was leader until his death
in 1982, and he was fully senile in his last few years. Boris
Yeltsin's disjointed speech and bizarre behavior were attributed to
heavy drinking. Putin has attempted to show himself off as a "hunk"
in several publicity stunts, but now he may be in trouble.
France 24 and Moscow News (September 9)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
Hu Jintao, Politburo Standing Committee, Wen Jiabao,
Deng Xiaoping, Ronald Reagan, Xi Jinping,
princelings, Bo Xilai, tuanpai, Communist Youth League, CYL,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Leonid Brezhnev, Boris Yeltsin

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*** 5-Nov-12 World View -- Egypt's Coptic Christians select a new Pope at time of anxiety

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• After being called 'traitor', Abbas rescinds on 'right of return'
• Russia's nationalists turn against Putin
• Egypt's Coptic Christians select a new Pope at time of anxiety

****
**** After being called 'traitor', Abbas rescinds on 'right of return'
****


Hamas supporters carry signs calling Abbas a 'traitor'

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas appeared to concede the
"right of return" on Friday, as we reported.
The remark was a shock to Palestinians, for whom the
demand that they be able to return to their ancestral homes in Israel
has been a foundational demand for the two-state negotiations, and
many called him a "traitor." However, on Sunday Abbas reversed
himself, saying that his previous remarks were only "personal," not
applicable to all Palestinians:

"Talking about Safad is a personal position and does
not mean giving up the right of return.

No one can give up the right of return as all international texts
and Arab and Islamic decisions refer to a just and agreed solution
to the refugee issue, according to U.N. Resolution 194, with the
term ‘agreed on’ meaning agreed with the Israeli side.

I do not change my position – what I say to the Palestinians is no
different from what I say to the Israelis or the Americans or
anyone."

Daily Star (Beirut) / AFP

****
**** Russia's nationalists turn against Putin
****

In recent years, Russia's president Vladimir Putin has courted ethnic
Russian nationalists to be allies in his ongoing effort to restore the
might of the Russian empire, bringing the North Caucasus under control
and even adding to Russia's territory the two breakaway provinces that
Russia "liberated" from Georgia during the 2008 war. Russia's
nationalists used to agree with Putin's agenda, but recently their
agenda has transformed significantly. According to an analyst, "They
don’t want to expand Russia, they don’t want to hear about its greater
Eurasian status -- Putin’s favorite game. They want to get rid of the
troublesome North Caucasus and its inhabitants they refuse to
acknowledge as Russian citizens." 5,000 young nationalist protesters
took to the streets on Sunday, Russia's annual Day of National Unity,
and mixed numerous chants filled with ethnic hatred with bitter
denunciations of Putin, some comparing him to Hitler. LA Times

****
**** Egypt's Coptic Christians select a new Pope at time of anxiety
****


The young blindfolded altar boy hands over the name of the new Pope of Alexandria on Sunday. His choice is thought to have been guided by God. (BBC)

On Sunday, in St. Mark's Cathedral in Cairo's Abbasiya district, an
Egyptian Coptic cleric named Wagih Sobhy Bakky Suleiman was chosen to
become the "Pope of Alexandria and Patriarch of All Africa in the Holy
See of St Mark the Apostle," under the name Pope Tawadros II.

He was one of three finalists chosen by vote. The three finalist
names were put into a glass bowl. A young altar boy was selected to
make the final choice. The child was blindfolded, and then he reached
into the bowl with a hand that believers say was guided by God, and
withdrew the name of Tawadros. (Why can't we choose our President
this way?)

The Coptic Christian Church was founded by Saint Mark the Evangelist,
who was one of the "Seventy Disciples" who were sent out by Jesus to
spread the gospel. He lost faith for a while, but later was restored
to faith and was the author of the New Testament's gospel according to
Mark. He became the Bishop of Alexandria for what has since become
the Coptic Church. The Church flourished, and at one time was
prominent not only in Egypt but throughout all of western Africa.
Today, there are dioceses in Ethiopia, in Europe, Armenia and the
United States. Pastoral responsibility falls to the Priests, who must
be married.

The Prophet Mohammed is said to have given special dispensation to the
Coptic Christians in Egypt, and they have gone through centuries of
great freedom, alternating with centuries of great persecution.
Today, Egypt's ten million Coptic Christians are still nominally free
to worship as they choose, but they're still in shock over last year's
"Maspero Massacre." (See "11-Oct-11 World View -- Egypt in shock over bloody massacre of Coptic Christians"
)

The death last Spring of Pope Shenouda III, the 117'th Coptic
Patriarch of Alexandria, left Egypt's Copts anxious and frightened
about their future, at a time when the Muslim Brotherhood has been
gaining political power. But it also represented an opportunity for
greater freedom: Over 2,000 Coptic Christians from Egypt visited the
Holy Land for Easter, defying a ban imposed on visiting Jerusalem and
Israeli-controlled areas. The ban has been in effect for three
decades, imposed by the Coptic leader Shenouda to protest Egypt's 1979
peace agreement with Israel.

Tawadros is the 118'th Coptic Patriarch of Alexandria, that began with
St. Mark, and Egypt's Copts see him as the "light at the end of the
tunnel" after the strict rule of Shenouda, and occasional violent
incidents since the Maspero massacre. In particular, since last
year's revolution in Egypt, young Copts have begun engaging in
politics, which was strongly discouraged by Shenouda. Copts expect
the new pope to guarantee their rights and make them feel safe in the
post-revolution Egypt. Tawadros will be the Copts' main contact with
Egypt's first Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi, and Copts will expect
him to make sure that Morsi keeps to his promise of freedom of
religion for all of Egypt's citizens. Egypt Independent and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and New Advent Catholic Encyclopedia



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
Israel, right of return, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
North Caucasus, Georgia,
Egypt, Coptic Christians, St. Mark, Pope of Alexandria,
Pope Tawadros II, Maspero Massacre, Pope Shenouda III,
Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi

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*** 6-Nov-12 World View -- Australia's court issues landmark judgment against S&P Ratings Agency

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia's court issues landmark judgment against S&P Ratings Agency
• Cyprus denies that its bailout money will go to Russian oligarchs

****
**** Australia's court issues landmark judgment against S&P Ratings Agency
****

Regular readers of World View know how much I whine about the fact
that not a single person has gone to jail for the financial crisis,
despite a huge abundance of evidence of fraud and criminal activity by
banks, because the regulators adamantly refuse to investigate and
prosecute the criminal activity, since everyone in Washington depends
on huge political contributions from banksters. As a result, the same
banksters are free to continue to commit new types of fraud with no
fear of prosecution.

The only partial exception to the above is the two fines imposed
against Barclays Bank, for criminal activity related to manipulation
of Libor and electricity prices. (See "3-Nov-12 World View -- New charges
put Barclays at center of climate change financial scam" )

Barclays is a British bank, and the fines were imposed by American
prosecuters. In my opinion, this has become possible because British
politicians, rather than American politicians, receive political
contributions from Barclays banksters.

Today we have a new illustration of this principle. Nobody in America
or Europe has brought the ratings agency (S&P, Moodys, Fitch) to court
despite massive evidence that they gave AAA ratings that were not
deserved. (See "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud" from 2010.)

But on Monday an Australian Federal Court issued a judgment against
Standard & Poors Ratings Agency essentially for being at best
completely incompetent and at worst criminals. In order for the
banksters to make their securities fraud work, they needed the
cooperation of the ratings agency to give the fraudulent securities
AAA ratings. The court found that S&P used fraudulent assumptions and
invalid data to arrive at the AAA ratings for synthetic securities
issued by the Dutch bank ABN Amro. The court found that the ratings
agency and the bank essentially cooperated to defraud investors.

None of this would have mattered, since we all know that prosecuters don't
want to prosecute banks and ratings agencies that give enormous sums of
money to politicians.

But here the two companies made a huge mistake: They defrauded 12
Australian municipal funds. In other words, innocent townspeople in Australia
were defrauded by a bank in Holland and a ratings agency in the United States,
with investment losses on the AAA securities amounting to $16.6 million.
It doesn't take much to see why they were brought to court.

All the news stories on this ruling emphasize that, unless S&P appeals and wins
the appeal, this decision has implications far beyond one case. It will open
the doors to similar litigation in Europe and North America.

The amount of money that S&P and ABN Amro will have to pay is just a
fraction of the large sums that they made through their criminal
activities. Unfortunately, no one is yet threatened with jail.
Reuters and Bloomberg and Quartz and Federal Court of Australia

****
**** Cyprus denies that its bailout money will go to Russian oligarchs
****

Cyprus is still negotiating the 10 billion euro bailout it's going to
need to keep from going bankrupt, after years of purchasing billions
of euros in Greek government bonds that have turned out to be
practically worthless. However, a report in Der Spiegel says that any
bailout money for Cyprus will immediately go into the pockets of
Russian oligarchs who use Cyprus to launder money from illegal
activities in Russia. However, Cyprus' government on Monday dismissed
the report, saying that was an attempt to sully the country's
reputation as an international investment center. Spiegel and AP

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Barclays Bank, S&P Ratings Agency,
ABN Amro bank, Cyprus, Greece, Russia

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*** 7-Nov-12 World View -- Labor unions shut down Greece for 48 hours in anti-austerity strike

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Labor unions shut down Greece for 48 hours in anti-austerity strike
• Seven more Syrian generals defect to Turkey
• The Butterfly Effect and the presidential election

****
**** Labor unions shut down Greece for 48 hours in anti-austerity strike
****


An elderly man marches with protesters in front of the Greek parliament on Tuesday (AFP)

Greece's trade unions launched a general strike and nationwide
protests on Tuesday against a new package of austerity measures that
are being demanded by European leaders as a condition for Greece to
receive its next bailout payment, in time to avoid going bankrupt in
mid-November. Hundreds of thousands of people marched across the
country, creating a major political crisis for prime minister Antonis
Samaras, who must get agreement on these austerity cuts by the
weekend. There have been numerous defections from Samaras' governing
coalition, but at latest count, the austerity bill is expected to
receive 160 out of 300 votes, enough to win passage. AP and Spiegel

****
**** Seven more Syrian generals defect to Turkey
****

Seven generals in the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
defected to Turkey on Tuesday, along with their families. This brings
the total number of Syrian generals in Turkey to 42. There are now
111,890 Syrian refugees living in Turkey in 14 refugee camps built
along the Syrian border, where they are fed three meals a day, and
where health, security, financial access, communication, social
activity, and educational needs are addressed. Today's Zaman (Ankara)

****
**** The Butterfly Effect and the presidential election
****

As I'm writing this, early on Tuesday evening ET, it's not yet known
who won the presidential election, but I've heard several pundits say
that last week Romney had a great deal of momentum that was stopped
and partially reversed by hurricane Sandy. This means that if Obama
wins, then it will be at least partially due to the weather.

Most readers will have heard of the "Butterfly Effect" in Chaos
Theory, which says that a butterfly flapping its wings in China might
cause a chain reaction that turns into a hurricane in North America.
So if Obama does win, then we might speculate whether Obama can credit
his victory to some Chinese butterfly - the Butterfly Effect.

This is a charming way of looking at it, but it's quite significant
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics forecasting. (See
"Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology")

Long-time readers may have noticed that there have been thousands of
predictions on my web site, but never predictions about the results of
an election. That's because Chaos Theory tells us that it's
impossible to predict the results of an election with any certainty,
because of the Butterfly Effect. The tiniest event -- a gaffe during
a speech, a traffic accident, a sex scandal, or a butterfly flapping
its wings -- can change the election results, and prove the
predictions wrong.

Generational Dynamics forecasting distinguishes between "trend events"
and "chaotic events." Trend events are those determined by large
masses of people, entire generations of people, based on long-term
irreversible trends. Chaotic events are those that can change
direction rapidly, as the result of a tiny unforeseen accident.
That's why generational forecasting theory carefully distinguishes
between chaotic and trend events, and makes predictions only on the
latter. Besides election results, other examples of chaotic events are
next month's weather and next month's stock prices. Trying to predict
chaotic events may be fun, but you'll probably be wrong half the time.
And I always like to point out that it's easy to get a million
predictions right -- just make two million predictions.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Antonis Samaras,
Syria, Turkey, Bashar al-Assad,
Generational Dynamics forecasting, Butterfly Effect,
Chaos Theory

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*** 8-Nov-12 World View -- Palestinians hope that President Obama's 2nd term will bring change

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's parliament squeaks through the austerity package amid violence
• Israel announces plans to build 1200 new homes in East Jerusalem and West Bank
• Al-Qaeda chief says that jihadists should be cheered by America's losses
• Palestinians hope that President Obama's 2nd term will bring change
• U.S. stocks slump most in past year

****
**** Greece's parliament squeaks through the austerity package amid violence
****


A protester on Wednesday about to throw a petrol bomb is struck by water cannon (Guardian)

The faltering coalition of the government of Greece's prime minister
Antonis Samaras managed to get 153 votes in parliament, out of 300
MPs, just enough to pass the package of austerity measures that the
European leaders are demanding in exchange for a new bailout payment.
The payment is needed before mid-November to prevent Greece's
bankruptcy. Outside the parliament building, tens of thousands of
people engaged in anti-austerity protests that were peaceful at first
but turned violent. Protesters threw petrol bombs, while police used
tear gas and water cannons. Greek protesters were particularly angry
at the use of water cannon, the first such incident in many years.
Kathimerini and Guardian

****
**** Israel announces plans to build 1200 new homes in East Jerusalem and West Bank
****

Israel announced that plans to build over 1200 new settlement homes in
East Jerusalem and the West Bank. The announcement triggered
widespread criticism, especially from European countries. The British
Foreign Office said that the announcement was "provocative" and
"deeply disappointing":

"The UK has been consistently clear that Israeli
settlements are illegal under international law and by altering
the situation on the ground are making the two state solution,
with Jerusalem as a shared capital, increasingly hard to
realize."

East Jerusalem and the West Bank were captured by Israel during the
Six Day War in 1967. CNN and YNet

****
**** Al-Qaeda chief says that jihadists should be cheered by America's losses
****

Ayman al Zawahiri, the man who replaced Osama bin Laden as leader of
al-Qaeda, posted a pep talk to al-Shabaab jihadists in Somalia, who
have been losing ground recently. He said that they should be cheered
from recent United States defeats:

"They were defeated in Iraq and they are withdrawing
from Afghanistan, and their ambassador in Benghazi was killed and
the flags of their embassies were lowered in Cairo and Sana'a, and
in their places were raised the flags of tawhid [monotheism] and
jihad.

After their consecutive defeats, they are working from behind
agents and traitors. Their awe is lost and their might is gone
and they don't dare to carry out a new campaign like their past
ones in Iraq and Afghanistan."

The statement about flags refer to attacks on American embassies where
the American flag was pulled down and replaced with an al-Qaeda flag.

According to a collection of letters that Arab TV reporters found when
they went to the Benghazi consulate where U.S. Ambassador Chris
Stevens was killed, the Libyan police had stopped providing
protection. Furthermore, on the morning of September 11, a Libyan
policeman had been taking pictures inside the consulate, suggesting
that the police were conspiring with the jihadists. It's now believed
that al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Ansar al-Sharia, and
other al-Qaeda affiliated jihadist groups participated in the murder
of Stevens. Long War Journal and Memri

****
**** Palestinians hope that President Obama's 2nd term will bring change
****

Following President Obama's reelection victory, with no need to worry
about reelection, Palestinians are hoping that Obama will bring about
a two-state solution to Mideast peace. According to one Palestinian
analyst:

"On the one hand, he is more knowledgeable of the
issues, and on the other he has to deal with the changing politics
in the region, particularly with the emergence of two new powers
in the Middle East — Iran and Turkey — which means the U.S. cannot
afford to leave a political vacuum that could be filled by either
of these two powers."

However, Palestinians don't expect Obama to change his support of
Israel, since Congress is "hijacked by the pro-Israel camp." LA Times

****
**** U.S. stocks slump most in past year
****

The day after President Obama won reelection, and the pre-election
hysteria has begun to disappear, the Dow Industrials had the biggest
decline in a years. Pundits are blaming it on the worsening debt
crisis, and the approaching "fiscal cliff." In addition, some of the
onerous price control and employment regulations of Obamacare will be
kicking in during the next few months. On Wednesday, the European
Commission sharply downgraded the 2013 economic forecasts for the
region. Bloomberg

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Israel, West Bank, East Jerusalem,
Ayman al Zawahiri, Somalia, Chris Stevens, al-Shabaab,
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Ansar al-Sharia,
Iran, Turkey, European Commission, ObamaCare

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*** 9-Nov-12 World View -- China reacts furiously as Tibetan self-immolations sharply escalate

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China reacts furiously as Tibetan self-immolations sharply escalate
• China's Hu Jintao says Socialism will prevail in final speech as president
• Putin fires Russia's defense minister, paralyzing the army

****
**** China reacts furiously as Tibetan self-immolations sharply escalate
****


Anti-government protester Tamdin Tso, 23-year-old mother of 2, burned herself to death on Wednesday

The opening of China's 18th Party Congress in Beijing has been the
occasion for a sharp escalation in the number of Buddhists in faraway
Tibet to self-immolate, or set themselves on fire, as protests against
China's government. There were five self-immolations on Wednesday,
including a 23-year-old single mother of 2 and three teenage Buddhist
monks. On Thursday, an 18-year-old former monk held up a white banner
calling for the Dalai Lama's return to Tibet, drawing a crowd of
thousands, and then set himself on fire. According to the director of
Free Tibet:

"As Congress opens, China must be held accountable for
its actions in Tibet. These protests are aimed at sending the
next generation of China’s unelected regime a clear signal that
Tibetans will continue to fight for their freedom despite China’s
efforts to suppress and intimidate them."

There have been at least 69 self-immolation protests since February,
2009, and in 54 cases, the protesters have died.

Chinese officials are extremely embarrassed and infuriated by the
self-immolations and warned Tibetans that:

"[Chinese security forces] will be ready to do
whatever it takes to crush those who are destroying stability in
the region to ensure that the 18th Party Congress is not
disrupted."

Tibetans are expressing optimism that China's new president, expected
to be Xi Jinping, will be more sympathetic to the Tibetans. Xi is the
"princeling" son of Xi Zhongxun, who met and came to know the Dalai
Lama in Beijing in the early 1950s. Daily Mail and AFP

****
**** China's Hu Jintao says Socialism will prevail in final speech as president
****

In his final speech as president of China, Hu Jintao told the 18th
Party Congress that that China must continue to "firmly march on the
path of Socialism" and he insisted that "public ownership is the
mainstay of the economic system" and warned that the party must
"resolutely not follow Western political systems." he said the party
should "steadily enhance the vitality of the state-owned sector and
its capacity to leverage and influence the economy." This is a
turnabout for Hu, who in the past has called for economic reforms to
reduce the amount of corruption. The turnabout reflects the
bitterness of the ideological struggle going on as China's the last of
the survivors of Mao's Communist Revolution civil war turn power over
to younger generations who grew up after that war. The ideological
maneuvering has profound implications as 70% of top cadres in the
party and the Chinese military retire, the most sweeping hand-over of
power since the revolution in 1949. Telegraph (London)

****
**** Putin fires Russia's defense minister, paralyzing the army
****

On Tuesday, Russia's President Vladimir Putin fired Defense Minister
Anatoly Serdyukov. Serdyukov was neck deep in corruption, having
channeled a chunk of the multi-billion dollar military budget into
his own bank accounts. But that kind of corruption isn't what gets
you fired in Putin's Russia. What got Serdyukov was the opposite of
what got him the job in the first place. In 2007, Serdyukov married
Yulia, the daughter of close Putin friend and associate Viktor Zubkov.
With that family connection, Serdyukov rose quickly to the top. Last
month, the police launched an early morning raid on the apartment of
33 year old Eugenia Vasilyeva, the lovely assistant of 50 year old
Serdyukov. Serdyukov answered the door in his bathrobe, and the
investigators reported confiscated jewelry, paintings and cash worth
$10 million. Serdyukov has been replaced by a new defense minister,
who will fire many of Serdyukov's men and replace them with his own.
That will create a domino effect, with each new official replacing the
people in his own organization. This will paralyze decision-making in
the defense ministry, at a time when reform has been progressing under
Serdyukov's leadership. However, Serdyukov's reforms have made him
many enemies, so few people are sorry to see him go. Jamestown and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Tibet, self-immolation, Dalai Lama,
Xi Jinping, Xi Zhongxun, Hu Jintao, Communist Revolution,
Vladimir Putin, Anatoly Serdyukov, Viktor Zubkov,
Eugenia Vasilyeva, Russia

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*** 10-Nov-12 World View -- EU budget talks collapse, leaving Greece without a bailout

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU budget talks collapse in acrimony
• Greece's bailout payment unlikely to be approved by Monday
• Norwegian mass murderer says prison 'violates his human rights'
• Syrian refugee crisis explodes with new flood of refugees

****
**** EU budget talks collapse in acrimony
****


Acropolis in Athens, Greece, at night (Reuters)

The European Union's 2013 budget talks, which were supposed to approve
a budget on Friday, collapsed. In fact, the talks never really go the
2013 budget, as an acrimonious debate over how to plug an 8.9 billion
euro shortfall in the 2012 budget ended without resolution. At the
talks, eight nations -- Austria, Britain, Denmark, Germany, France,
Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden -- demanded that the EU's
executive branch, known as the European Commission, use 15 billion
euros of non-spent monies to plug the hole, but the Commission said
those monies had already been spent. If the 2012 shortfall is not
made up, then a wide range of social programs will have to end.
Net contributor countries (countries that pay more in taxes than they
receive in benefits), led by Britain, want to sharply cut spending,
to match austerity policies of most countries. France, Finland
and Germany want to cut the budget. But net beneficiary countries,
led by Poland, urged everyone to do everything possible to
get the increased budget passed. Talks will resume on Tuesday,
with a November 20 deadline that appears unlikely to be met.

On Friday, I watched President Obama's speech live, where he talked
about the deficit and "fiscal cliff," and said that since he won the
election on Tuesday, he did not have to compromise, while his
opponents did have to compromise. It appears that the next few months
in America will be just as acrimonious as in Europe -- and in China,
for that matter. AFP

****
**** Greece's bailout payment unlikely to be approved by Monday
****

Greece's officials had hoped that the leaders of the EU "troika" of
organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the
European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
-- would have approved a 31.5 billion euro bailout payment by Monday,
in time to allow Greece to repay 5 billion euros of debt next week,
and avoid bankruptcy. There is sharp disagreement among the troika
members over whether Greece should be required to meet its austerity
commitments, in view of the fact that Greece's economy continues to
spiral down the drain. It looks like the next few days are going to
be very tense. Guardian (London)

****
**** Norwegian mass murderer says prison 'violates his human rights'
****

33-year-old mass murderer Anders Breivik, who was convicted of killing
77 children in Norway, mostly children, and who repeatedly said he was
glad he did it, wrote a letter to prison authorities whining about
conditions in his maximum security prison. After a newspaper exposed
his correspondence with high-ranking neo-Nazi extremists, he no longer
is permitted to use a computer, and all letters he sends and receives
are censored to omit any mention of politics. Needless to say, the
families of his victims are not sympathetic. Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Syrian refugee crisis explodes with new flood of refugees
****

Some 9,000 refugees fled from Syria to Turkey in a single day on
Thursday, while another 2,000 went to Jordan and Lebanon. This brings
the number of Syria refugees registered with the United Nations to
more than 408,000. Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
criticized the United Nations:

"It is very strange. There are currently atrocities
being committed in Syria, and these atrocities are being directed
by a state leader. While these atrocities are continuing ... there
is a United Nations that is remaining silent towards
it.

How far will this go? When will the permanent members of the UN
Security Council take responsibility? We are obliged to act
together to counter this, otherwise we cannot refer to this world
body as being democratic"

Among the 9,000 Syrians crossing over into Turkey, there were many
army officers, including two generals, 11 colonels, two lieutenant
colonels, two majors, four captains and five sergeants.
Today's Zaman (Istanbul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, fiscal cliff,
Greece, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Norway, Anders Breivik, Norway,
Turkey, Syria, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,

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*** 11-Nov-12 World View -- Palestinian Authority will go to U.N. to ask for Palestinian state

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• As Israeli election approaches, tensions escalate on border with Gaza
• Palestinian Authority will go to U.N. to ask for Palestinian state
• EU funding crisis as Britain leads a walkout on talks

****
**** As Israeli election approaches, tensions escalate on border with Gaza
****


Israelis run for shelter after warning of incoming rockets on Saturday (AFP)

Both sides are threatening revenge on the border between Israel and
Gaza, as attacks have escalated sharply in the last few days. On
Thursday, a huge tunnel from Gaza to Israel exploded, injuring one
soldier. On Saturday, Gaza showered Israel with rockets, and fired an
anti-tank missile at an Israeli jeep, wounding four soldiers. Israel
retaliated with missile attacks on four targets in Gaza, killing and
wounding dozens of Gazans. Islamic Jihad is believed to have launched
the barrage of missiles.

Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, "The IDF responded harshly
to the incident and further action will be considered in the coming
days. We will not tolerate any escalation along the border."

The radical Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza released a statement
vowing that "the Zionist enemy will pay a high price for this crime
against Gaza."

Some Israelis are speculating that Hamas is repeating a pattern from
2008. Just after the November 2008 American election, and some three
months before the next Israeli election, violence escalated sharply
between Gaza and Israel, leading to the "Operation Cast Lead" war
between Israel and Gaza. Now, just after the American election, with
an Israeli election a few months off, violence is escalating sharply
again. The speculation is that Hamas or Islamic Jihad or some other
militant group in Gaza is using the chaos surrounding these elections
as an opportunity to provoke a new war. Jerusalem Post
and AFP and Haaretz

****
**** Palestinian Authority will go to U.N. to ask for Palestinian state
****

A spokesman for the Palestinian Authority (PA) said that the
Palestinian leadership and the Arab countries have confirmed a
decision to go the United Nations General Assembly to gain recognition
of a Palestinian state on pre-1967 borders. The PA knows that it
already has enough votes in the General Assembly for recognition,
although the General Assembly can't give the state full U.N.
membership without Security Council approval of a resolution, which
the U.S. would veto. They are considering asking for a vote on
November 15 or 29. November 29 is the anniversary of the date in 1947
that the U.N. General Assembly partitioned Palestine into Jewish and
Arab regions. Once the General Assembly acts, the PA plans to pursue
Israel for "war crimes" in the International Criminal Court. Israel
has indicated that it will impose sanctions on the PA if its leader go
to the General Assembly. Jerusalem Post

****
**** EU funding crisis as Britain leads a walkout on talks
****

Britain's MEPs (Members of European Parliament) have led an alliance
with Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden and other nations to
walk out of talks on providing an additional $22 billion in the 2012
and 2013 European Commission budgets, and Britain's prime minister
David Cameron renewed his threat to veto any budget increase above the
level of inflation. Britain's Finance Minister Greg Clark pointed out
that the European Commission was calling for "sound public finances"
among the member nations, and therefore:

"So it is frankly breathtaking that, knowing all that,
the Commission does not practice what it preaches by proposing
reductions, but instead asks for a 6.8% increase in this budget
over last year. ...

Europe must practice the fiscal discipline that it demands of
member states.

Ordinary working people, whether in the UK or elsewhere, cannot be
asked to pay more to Europe when they are enduring cuts at
home."

The negotiations are extremely acrimonious, and it's possible that a
major EU summit meeting scheduled for November 22 will have to be
postponed. Telegraph (London) and UK Press Association

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad,
Ehud barak, Popular Resistance Committees,
Operation Cast Lead, Palestinian Authority,
United Nations General Assembly, International Criminal Court,
European Union, Britain, European Commission, Greg Clark

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*** 12-Nov-12 World View -- Israel fires warning missile into Syria, considers new war in Gaza

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sunni / Shia violence escalates in Sidon in southern Lebanon
• Netanyahu: Israel is considering a new ground invasion of Gaza
• Israel fires a guided missile into Syria as a warning
• Palestinian leader Abbas tells Obama he'll go ahead with U.N. bid
• Civilian and military suicide rates surge in United States
• Greece passes budget, waits nervously for bailout approval

****
**** Sunni / Shia violence escalates in Sidon in southern Lebanon
****


Hizbollah banners on the streets of Sidon (Daily Star)

A long-running disagreement about promotional banners from the
terrorist group Hizbollah broke into violence in Sidon in southern
Lebanon on Sunday. A hardline Sunni Salafi cleric, Ahmad al-Assir,
has been demanding that the Iranian-linked Shia terrorist group
Hizbollah be required to remove a large number of promotional signs
and banners cluttering the town. On Friday, al-Assir gave a 48-hour
deadline to remove all the pictures and banners in Sidon that "contain
slogans supportive of Hizbollah and its allies who back the
Syrian-Iranian scheme." A gunfight occurred between al-Assir
supporters and Hizbollah supporters, leaving at least four people
killed, including al-Assir's bodyguard, and seven others wounded.
Al-Assir claims that his dispute is with Iran and Hizbollah, not with
all Shias. Lebanon's army has been sent in to restore order.
Naharnet (Beirut) and Al-Jazeera and Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Netanyahu: Israel is considering a new ground invasion of Gaza
****

Violence has escalated sharply between Israel and Gaza in the last 24
hours, with over 100 rockets and mortar shells from Gaza striking
southern Lebanon, wounding three people. It's believed that the
terror group Islamic Jihad launched the attacks. Israel's prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu is said to be preparing international
public opinion for an Israeli military operation into Gaza, perhaps
similar to Operation Cast Lead, Israel's 2008 invasion of Gaza.
According to defense minister Ehud Barak

"If we are forced to go back into Gaza in order to
deal Hamas a [serious] blow and restore security for all of
Israel’s citizens, then we will not hesitate to do so.

It is Hamas that will pay the price; a price that will be
painful."

There are reports that Egyptian intelligence officials have rushed
into the situation to broker an end to the violence, and there are
mixed reports about whether Islamic Jihad even wants the violence to
end. Jerusalem Post and YNet (Tel Aviv)

****
**** Israel fires a guided missile into Syria as a warning
****

Until Sunday, Israel has not fired at Syria since the 1973 Yom Kippur
war. But two Syrian shells landed in the Golan Heights during the
last few days, and so Israel fired a guided missile into Syria as a
warning shot. "We don't believe it caused injuries or damages,"
according to an Israeli army spokesman. At the same time, Israel sent
a warning message to the United Nations, saying that any firing into
Israel will result "in a real response." According to an Israeli
official,

"We will not accept any firing into our territory.
This was a signal to the Syrians, that we will not be so forgiving
of everything that lands in a territory."

Israel says that it doesn't want to be dragged any further into the
Syrian conflict. Jerusalem Post

****
**** Palestinian leader Abbas tells Obama he'll go ahead with U.N. bid
****

U.S. President Barack Obama made a personal call on Sunday to
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas told Obama that,
despite Obama's objections, he would go ahead with the bid to get
United Nations General Assembly recognition of the state of Palestine.
The vote is expected to be taken later this month, and the resolution
is expected to pass. AP and Reuters

****
**** Civilian and military suicide rates surge in United States
****




A study conducted by University of Cambridge (UK) researchers has
found that the suicide rate in America for both civilians and the
military has surged significantly since the financial crisis began in
2007. The suicide rate began increasing gradually since 1999, the
beginning year of the study, but really shot up starting in 2007, when
the financial crisis began. It was found that a 1 percentage point
rise in the unemployment rate was associated with a 1% increase in the
suicide rate, and that unemployment could account for about a quarter
of the excess suicides, the rest being attributed to the economy in
general. In the military, the most common reason for hospitalization
of Army personnel is now admission for some type of psychiatric
illness, including PTSD, depression, other anxiety disorders, or
substance abuse. Approximately 15% of US infantry personnel
experience some sort of PTSD symptoms post deployment. Emaxhealth and The Lancet (PDF)

****
**** Greece passes budget, waits nervously for bailout approval
****

Greece's parliament passed a harsh budget late Sunday night, raising
the retirement age from 65 to 67, cutting wages for soldiers and
public officials by 500 euros per month, and cutting pensions by 150
euros per month. Even so, it won't be enough. Greece's economy has
been contracting for six years in a row, and a 4 1/2% contraction is
expected next year. Greece has passed its budget at the last minute,
which may nor may not leave enough time for European leaders to reach
a judgment to give Greece its next bailout payment in time to avoid
bankruptcy on Wednesday. Kathimerini

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sidon, Lebanon, Hizbollah, Ahmad al-Assir,
Iran, Israel, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu, Operation Cast Lead,
Ehud Barak, Egypt, Islamic Jihad, Syria, Mahmoud Abbas,
United Nations, suicide rates, Greece

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*** 13-Nov-12 World View -- Mideast violence escalates on several fronts: Turkey, Syria, Gaza, Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• As rockets pour in from Gaza, Israel debates launching a new war
• A new Gaza war would be far more dangerous than the 2008 war
• Israel fires tank shells, makes 'direct hits' on targets in Syria
• Nato pledges to defend Turkey against attacks from Syria
• Far-right extremism growing in Germany and Greece
• Sharp disagreements between EU and IMF delay Greece's bailout payment

****
**** As rockets pour in from Gaza, Israel debates launching a new war
****


Trails of smoke are seen after the launch of rockets from the northern Gaza strip towards Israel on Sunday. (Reuters)

Theoretically, there's a cease fire in effect between Israel and Gaza,
since it was brokered by Egyptian intelligence officials on Sunday.
But the Iran-linked Gaza terror group Islamic Jihad continued to fire
rockets into Israel on Monday, damaging homes but producing no new
casualties. Israel retaliated with air strikes. Some 150 rockets
have been fired from Gaza into southern Israel since Saturday. Israeli
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Monday with some 100 foreign
envoys, and said,

"I don’t know of any of your governments who could
accept such a thing. I don’t know of any of the citizens of your
cities who could find that acceptable and something that could
proceed on a normal basis. I think the whole world understands
that this is not acceptable.

So we’re going to fight for the rights of our people to defend
themselves. We’ll take whatever action is necessary to put a stop
to this."

Israel's foreign missions reportedly were instructed to tell their
host governments that Israel has lost patience with the situation on
the Gaza border and could take some action. Jewish Telegraphic Association

****
**** A new Gaza war would be far more dangerous than the 2008 war
****

Hamas was caught by surprise by Operation Cast Lead, Israel's 2008
ground invasion of Gaza. This time, Hamas will be far better
prepared, with bomb-laden tunnels, booby-trapped buildings, snipers and
underground command centers. At the same time, Hamas now has
long-range rockets, and could attack Tel Aviv, something that would
cause the violence to spiral up even farther. Jerusalem Post

****
**** Israel fires tank shells, makes 'direct hits' on targets in Syria
****

For the second day in a row, Israel fired into Syria in response
to Syrian mortar shells landing in the Golan Heights. On Sunday,
it was just a warning shot. On Monday, a Syrian mortar shell
landed near an Israeli army post in Golan, causing no damage or
injuries. According to a military statement:

"In response, IDF (Israel Defense Forces) soldiers
fired tank shells towards the source of the fire, confirming
direct hits. Syrian mobile artillery was directly hit.

[Further shooting from Syria} "will not be tolerated and shall be
responded to with severity."

A spokesman for United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said that
he was "deeply concerned by the potential for escalation." AFP

****
**** Nato pledges to defend Turkey against attacks from Syria
****

Turkey has been striking Syria's military repeatedly for over a month,
ever since shells from Syria's army struck a Turkish village, killing
two women and three children. On Monday, a Syrian fighter jet bombed
a rebel-held area near the Turkish border, killing at least six
people, while a rocket-propelled grenade landed inside Turkey. The
escalating violence near Turkey has sent a surge of Syrian refugees
across the border. There are now about 120,000 Syria refugees in
Turkish refugee camps, with 70,000 more living in Turkey outside the
camps.

As the situation escalates, Nato announced on Monday that it
will defend Turkey against attacks from Syria if necessary.
Nato's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Monday:

"NATO as an organization will do what it takes to
protect and defend Turkey, our ally. We have all plans in place to
make sure that we can protect and defend Turkey and hopefully that
way also deter so that attacks on Turkey will not take
place."

Al-Jazeera and Reuters

****
**** Far-right extremism growing in Germany and Greece
****

Far-right attitudes are growing in Germany, and not just on the
fringes. (The phrase "far right" has different meanings in Europe and
America.) Nationwide surveys show that right-wing extremist attitudes
have grown from 8.2% to 9% in a year, with xenophobic preferences
held by 25.1% of the population. In Greece, the growth of extreme
right-wing attitudes has been much more extreme, and is resulting in
an increasing level and severity of racist violence. What started as
simple fist beatings has now escalated to assaults with metal bars,
bats and knives, with attacks directed at dark-skinned migrants. At
the same time, the far-right anti-immigrant Golden Dawn party has
surged in popularity and in national elections. Spiegel and AP

****
**** Sharp disagreements between EU and IMF delay Greece's bailout payment
****

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union are
openly disagreeing on the demands to be placed on Greece in return for
new bailout payments. In particular, the EU wants to give Greece two
additional years to meet its austerity commitments, while the IMF
refuses. The additional two years will mean that Greece will need an
additional 32.6 billion euros bailout on top of the 148 billion euros
it has already received, and with Greece's economy continuing to
spiral downward on a daily basis, there's little doubt that even that
won't be enough. The situation has gotten so bad that even mainstream
media analysts are now saying that the problem with Greece is
insoluble, so you no longer have to come to web sites like mine to get
that particular piece of information. Greece is set to go bankrupt on
Friday, when it has to meet 5 billion euros in debt payments.
However, Germany's parliament will have to vote on new bailout terms.
There is little enthusiasm to speed up the bailout decision-making
process, since the fault is really with Greece, which didn't pass a
2013 budget until late Sunday evening (actually Monday morning). So,
unless the new bailout payment can be awarded very quickly, some way
will have to be found to give Greece a few billion euros cash by
Friday. Irish Examiner


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Gaza, Israel, Islamic Jihad,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Hamas, Tel Aviv, Syria, Golan Heights,
Ban Ki-moon, Nato, Turkey, Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
Germany, Greece, Golden Dawn,
International Monetary Fund, IMF

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*** 14-Nov-12 World View -- Raucous EU-IMF confrontation lightens mood around Greece's bailout disaster

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Raucous EU-IMF confrontation lightens mood around Greece's bailout disaster
• France becomes first European country to recognize Syria's opposition government
• The Dalai Lama, in Japan, criticizes China over Tibet

****
**** Raucous EU-IMF confrontation lightens mood around Greece's bailout disaster
****


Jean-Claude Juncker and Christine Lagarde on Tuesday

The disagreements between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and
eurozone finance ministers broke out into raucous confrontation
on Monday. Putting together several sources, this is
what happened:

Jean-Claude Jüncker, president of the Eurogroup of finance ministers,
and also Luxembourg’s prime minister, said that the European finance
ministers wanted to grant Greece the two-year extension on its new
austerity commitments, when he said that the target date for Greece to
achieve a "sustainable" debt level would be 2022.

When Jüncker made that declaration, he was sitting right next
to Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF.

She said, "Did you say 2022?"

He said, "Yes."

She said, "No we don't have agreement on that."

He said, "I'm not joking."

Then Jüncker repeated his declaration.

A visibly angered Ms Lagarde ostentatiously shook her head
and rolled her eyes. She said:

"We clearly have different views. What matters at the
end of the day is the sustainability of the Greek debt so that
that country can get back on its feet and re-access the private
market in due course.

What we regard as critical insofar as the IMF is concerned is that
the Greek debt is sustainable. In our view the appropriate
timetable is 120 per cent [of GDP] by 2020 [as opposed to
2022]."

And let's recall that European politicians have lied over and over
again, and Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Jüncker was quoted as
saying, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie," as we reported
in May, 2011.

Well, this situation is certainly serious, so I guess Jüncker must be
lying. He said that all the Eurogroup finance ministers agreed
to 2022, but I doubt very much that Germany, Finland, the Netherlands
or Austria did. So I'm pretty sure that his claim was a lie.


Jean-Claude Jüncker in 2005, furious at the British for not wanting to spend more money. (BBC)

Ms. Lagarde took a far more principled position, but the IMF is a
global organization, not a European organization, and its sponsors in
America, in China, and in Brazil are going to wonder why they should
have to be bailing out Greece, when that's Europe's responsibility.
In fact, the bailout money doesn't even really go to Greece; it
goes to European banks that purchased massive amount of toxic
Greek debt.

So, apparently Greece is going to get its two-year extension,
but that extension is going to require an additional 32.6 billion
euros on top of the 148 billion euros Greece has already been
promised.

There was no agreement on who was going to pay that additional 32.6
billion euros. There will be another Eurogroup meeting on November
20, to iron out that tiny little detail.

However, Greece did get some good news on Monday: It was able to sell
5 billion euros in short-term bonds, enough to prevent it from going
bankrupt on Friday. Telegraph (London)

****
**** France becomes first European country to recognize Syria's opposition government
****

France broke with other European countries by becoming the first to
recognize Syria's Syrian National Coalition (SNC) as the government of
Syria. France's president François Hollande said on Tuesday:

"I announce today that France recognizes the Syrian
National Council (SNC) as the sole legitimate representative of
the Syrian people and as future government of a democratic Syria
making it possible to bring an end to Bashar al-Assad's
regime."

Six Arab states took the same step on Monday, though others wanted
to wait. The new Syrian coalition was formed over the weekend
in marathon negotiations in Doha, Qatar. Calling itself the
"National Coalition for Revolutionary Forces and the Syrian
Opposition," it remains to be seen whether the coalition can
hold itself together.

An unresolved question is whether France and other countries should
sell arms to the opposition coalition, to help in their fight against
the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Many countries are
reluctant to do so, for fear that the weapons will end up in the hands
of al-Qaeda linked terrorists, as has happened with the weapons in
Libya's storehouses. Daily Star (Beirut) and Today's Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** The Dalai Lama, in Japan, criticizes China over Tibet
****

In the East Asia Sea, Chinese warships and Japanese Coast Guard
ships have circling around each other and the Sankaku/Diayou islands,
which both countries claim, so there's no need for any additional
tension between the two countries. But there are indeed
increased tensions, as China becomes infuriated over a visit
by the hated Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, to
Tokyo. Even worse, the Dalai Lama took advantage of the visit
to criticize China for its policy in Tibet.
In response, China's Foreign Ministry said:

"China is firmly opposed to any country or any
person’s supporting the Dalai’s separatist activities in any way.
Japanese right-wing forces have been blatantly supporting Dalai’s
anti-China separatist activities and interfering in China’s
internal affairs, which China strongly condemns."

China has been embarrassed in recent weeks by a surge in Tibetan
suicides by self-immolation. China blames the Dalai Lama for the
suicides, saying that he was sacrificing lives "to achieve his goal of
Tibetan independence." AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Jean-Claude Jüncker,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Christine Lagarde,
Greece, Syria, Syrian National Council,
National Coalition for Revolutionary Forces and the Syrian Opposition,
Bashar al-Assad, Qatar, Dalai Lama, China, Tibet, Japan,
Senkaku, Diayou

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*** 15-Nov-12 World View -- Hamas vows revenge as Israel begins military operation in Gaza

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel launches military operation in Gaza
• Hamas says that Israel 'Opened the gates of hell on itself'
• U.N. security council and Arab League plan emergency sessions
• Europe-wide anti-austerity marches turn violent in Spain and Portugal

****
**** Israel launches military operation in Gaza
****


Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on Wednesday

Tensions have been rising significantly in the Mideast since Saturday,
when the Islamic Jihad terrorist group started launching rockets at
homes in southern Israel. Some 500 rockets have been launched since
then.

On Wednesday, Israel's Foreign Ministry issued the following
communiqué:

"The Cabinet directed the IDF and the ISA to continue
vigorous action against the terrorist infrastructures operating
from the Gaza Strip against the civilian population in Israel in
order to allow a normal life for the residents of the State of
Israel.

It was unanimously decided, this evening (Wednesday, 14 November
2012):

1. To direct the IDF and the ISA to continue vigorous action
against the terrorist infrastructures operating from the Gaza
Strip against the civilian population in Israel in order to bring
about an improvement in the security reality and allow a normal
life for the residents of the State of Israel.

Alongside the military effort, Israel will, to the best of its
ability, work to avoid harming civilians while honoring the
humanitarian needs of the population, in keeping with the rules of
international law.

2. To direct the IDF, the Home Front Defense Ministry, the Israel
Police and all relevant agencies to take all necessary measures in
keeping with Defense Minister Ehud Barak's statement regarding the
declaration of a special home front situation.

3. To allow the IDF, as per need and with the approval of Defense
Minister Barak, to mobilize reserve units.

4. To direct the National Information Directorate and the Foreign
Ministry, in conjunction with all relevant agencies, to explain
Israel's actions, in Israel and in the international arena.

5. To authorize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with
Defense Minister Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, and
in consultation with other ministers as per need, to decide, on
behalf of the Security Cabinet, regarding the actions necessary to
continue with Operation Pillar of Defense and to submit other
decisions for Government approval, as may prove
necessary."

The operation began with air strikes that killed Ahmed Jabari, the
commander of Hamas's military wing, killing him and his son as he was
driving in his car. Jabari is blamed for a number of terrorist
attacks in the last ten years, and he also masterminded the kidnapping
of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Shalit was held in captivity, and
was only freed in return for the release of 1,000 Palestinian
prisoners in Israeli jails last year. Jabari also led Hamas's
successful military campaign that defeated Fatah in 2007.

The Israeli air strikes are continuing as of this writing on Wednesday
evening ET.

Israel has called up its military reserves, and has announced that the
war may be expanded, with the possibility of a ground invasion such as
occurred in Operation Cast Lead, when Israel invaded Gaza in 2008.

If you go to the IDF web site, you can see live updates of the
military operation in Gaza. Israel's Foreign Ministry and Jerusalem Post
and Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) web site

****
**** Hamas says that Israel 'Opened the gates of hell on itself'
****

Ahmed Jabari was the head of the militant Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, which
issued a statement on Wednesday that "The occupation has opened the
gates of hell on itself." A Hamas spokesman said:

"The occupation committed a dangerous crime and
crossed all the red lines, which is considered a declaration of
war.

The occupation will pay dearly for this and we will make it regret
the moment they thought about it."

The killing of Ahmed Jabara sparked furious protests in Gaza. It's
widely believed that Hamas has no choice but to seek revenge. Hamas
has a number of options that were not available during Operation Cast
Lead in 2008.

Ever since Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak was deposed last year, the
Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt has been open, allowing
sophisticated weapons to pass through from Egypt to Gaza. In
addition, it's now possible for Hamas to send suicide bombers through
the Rafah crossing into Israel via Egypt's Sinai. It appears likely
that both sides will escalate the war in the days to come.

Al-Resalah (Gaza) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** U.N. security council and Arab League plan emergency sessions
****

At Egypt's request, the United Nations Security Council is meeting in
closed emergency session on Wednesday evening to discuss the Israeli
air strikes on Gaza. The Arab League has condemned Israel, and will
be meeting on Saturday. Reuters

****
**** Europe-wide anti-austerity marches turn violent in Spain and Portugal
****

Millions of people across Europe took part on Wednesday in a mostly
peaceful general strike called by organized labor. However, in Lisbon
Portugal, the marches ended with a level of violence not seen since
the financial crisis began, with police charging demonstrators who
hurled stones and bottles. Riot police used rubber bullets to
disperse violent protesters in Madrid and Barcelona in Spain. In
Rome, scuffles broke out between police in riot gear and demonstrators
who threw stones, bottles and fireworks. Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Islamic Jihad, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Gilad Shalit, Ahmed Jabari, Hamas, Egypt, Hosni Mubarak,
Security Council, Arab League, Portugal, Spain

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*** 16-Nov-12 World View -- Egypt rushes to mediate truce in escalating Israel-Gaza war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hamas and Israel each demand retribution as conflict escalates
• Egypt rushes in to mediate between Hamas and Israel
• Greek protesters attack German official after slur on Greek workers

****
**** Hamas and Israel each demand retribution as conflict escalates
****


Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh on Thursday

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a war doesn't just
start on the day that somebody officially declares war. The
preliminaries can go on for decades, with periods of low-level
conflict intermixed with periods of truce. But each period of truce
is followed by another period of conflict more violent than the
previous one.

This alternation of truce and escalated conflict continues, until one
or both sides crosses a "red line" during a generational Crisis era, a
time of heightened nationalism, anxiety and xenophobia. Such red
lines are called "regeneracy events" in generational theory, because
they serve to unite the country and regenerate civic unity for the
first time since the end of the preceding crisis war. ("Basics of Generational Dynamics")

Once enough of these regeneracy events occur, a full-scale
generational crisis war begins. The level of nationalism and
genocidal violence continues to escalate on both sides, until the war
ends months or years later in an explosive climax.

In the last 24 hours, there have been two major regeneracy events in
the Gaza vs Israel conflict:

• Israeli warplanes on Wednesday killed a top level Hamas
  official, Ahmed Jabari, the commander of Hamas's military wing, as we
  reported in detail
  yesterday.
  
• On Thursday, Hamas struck deep inside Israel with Iranian-made
  Fajr-5 rockets. These rockets carry large payloads and can destroy a
  lot of property and kill a lot of people, but they have no guidance
  systems, and so they can't be used to destroy a specific target.
  However, they have much longer range -- 70-75 km -- than the
  Russian-made Grad rockets, which can only go 40-45 km. Thus, the best
  targets for the Fajr-5 missiles are large dense areas, like big
  cities, where they can cause maximal damage and casualties. The
  missiles launched on Thursday targeted the sprawling city of Tel Aviv,
  but even with that large a target, they landed in the sea off the Tel
  Aviv coast.

My focus today is not the military aspects of this conflict, but the
"regeneracy event" aspect. Both Hamas and Israel are deep into a
generational Crisis era, with extremely high nationalism, anxiety and
xenophobia.

As long as Israeli warplanes were only targeting weapons stores, the
Gazans were prepared to live with it. As soon as it appeared that
Israel has the capability to target and kill a high-level Hamas
official, nationalism kicked in big time, and demands for revenge have
been surging.

As long as Hamas's Grad rockets were targeting small villages near the
Gazan border, with lots of empty spaces, Israelis were prepared to
live with it. But as soon as it appeared that Hamas has the
capability to strike the city of Tel Aviv, making millions of people
vulnerable to attack, nationalism and anxiety have kicked in big time,
and demands to put a stop to the attack have been surging.

Whether Hamas and Israel can somehow reach a truce before going to a
full-scale crisis war remains to be seen. But if there is a truce,
then it will be a temporary one, and at some point there will be new
regeneracy events that will lead to full-scale war.

In the meantime, the rhetoric has become extremely belligerent.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel takes pains to
avoid civilians, while:

"It is important to understand one simple point: there
is no moral symmetry between the terrorists in Gaza and Israel.

They are committing double war crimes: they fire at Israeli
civilians and hide behind Palestinian civilians."

Ismail Haniyeh, the prime minister of Hamas's
Gaza government, has been trying to pressure Egypt to come into the
war on the side of Hamas:

"We call on our Arab brothers, and especially Egypt
... and the new Egyptian presidency, to suppress this barbaric
campaign in defense of Gaza and its people."

Reuters and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Egypt rushes in to mediate between Hamas and Israel
****

President Barack Obama's strategy during the last four years of
blaming President George Bush for failing to resolve the Mideast
problem, and then giving speeches that appear to reward Hamas's
intransigence while ignoring Israel, appears to have backfired.
President Bush was respected by both sides, though hated by one side,
because he made it clear that he would defend Israel while working for
a two-state solution. President Obama, as far as I can tell from
reading the Mideast press, seems to be neither respected nor liked by
either side, with a statement like "he's worse than Bush" appearing
often in opinion columns.

Similarly, there's little respect on either side for the United Nations,
Ban Ki-moon, or Kofi Annan. The latter was particularly ridiculed for his
pointless farcical six point plan to end the Syria conflict.

Now, there is someone almost completely unexpected preparing to
fulfill that role. Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi, a member of the
Muslim Brotherhood, has gained credibility in the Mideast because of
his willingness and ability, so far, to play a conciliatory role in
his own government and in the region. In his own government, he
appears to have taken a number of shrewd steps to regain power from
the military junta that took over after Hosni Mubarak was deposed, and
the demonstrations and violence in Tahrir Square seem to have cooled
off.

On Wednesday, he condemned Israel's assassination of Ahmed Jabari, but
he took the weakest possible diplomatic action that he could possibly
take, short of doing nothing: He recalled Egypt's ambassador to
Israel. One can imagine much more confrontational steps -- closing
embassies, completely breaking diplomatic relations, moving troops
into the Sinai -- but none of those happened.

Furthermore, when the Chief of Morsi's presidential cabinet was asked whether
Morsi planned to repudiate Egypt's 1979 peace treaty with Israel, the response
was as follows:

"No, not at all. Not at all, because we have declared
several times and repeatedly that we abide by our international
commitments. But respecting the peace treaty does not mean
they're idle or indifferent to what is going on along our borders
and what is touching our brothers. And we cannot be indifferent
to human sufferings. So we are abiding by our legal obligations,
but we are active to help establishing real peace in the
area."

Morsi is sending a high-level Egyptian delegation to Gaza on Friday,
and has already spoken to both Hamas and Israel in phone calls. Morsi
has a great deal of credibility right now, and it's quite possible
that Morsi will succeed, and that he will find a way to bring about a
temporary truce before the conflict spirals into full-scale war.
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and CNN

****
**** Greek protesters attack German official after slur on Greek workers
****

Greek protesters in the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki physically
attacked a German official attending a meeting on Greek-German
relations, forcing riot police to step in for protection. The attack
was apparently triggered by Hans-Joachim Fuchtel, a Labor official in
Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet, who said that Greek cities should
try to cut back on employees, because it takes three Greeks to do the
same job as one German. After the incident Fuchtel issued an apology,
saying that he had great respect for Greek workers. Deutsche-Welle and Kathimerini

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, regeneracy event,
Ahmed Jabari, Ismail Haniyeh, Fajr-5 rockets, Iran,
Tel Aviv, Benjamin Netanyahu, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood,
Mohamed Morsi, Greece, Germany, Hans-Joachim Fuchtel,
Angela Merkel

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