*** 17-Nov-12 World View -- Israel apparently prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel apparently prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza
• Hamas's miscalculations in provoking Gaza War
• Little input from Taiwan in the Japan - China dispute over the Senkaku Islands

****
**** Israel apparently prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza
****


Israel launches a rocket from its 'Iron Dome' defensive system to intercept an incoming missile launched form Gaza. (Reuters)

Tanks and troops are massing on Israel's border with Gaza, and on
Friday evening, Israel's cabinet authorized mobilization of up to
75,000 reservists, up from just 16,000 authorized the day before, with
30,000 already reporting for duty in their home districts. These
moves are reactions to long-range rockets from Gaza reaching as far as
Jerusalem, though without yet creating damage or casualties. But the
vulnerability of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem to rocket attacks from Gaza
is causing Israel to get panicky.

Recall that in 2006, Israel went to war with Hizbollah in Lebanon,
within four hours of the capture of two Israeli soldier, with no plan,
and no objective, resulting in total chaos.

The current situation has the same feeling of Israel panicking.
However, we have to assume that the Israelis learned a lot from 2006,
and that they have a plan. Possibly the military buildup is just a
bluff, and there's no intention of invading. Or the invasion may have
begun by the time you read this. If the invasion does take place,
it's hard to see what the objective will be. Even in the unlikely
event that Israel manages to destroy every missile in Gaza, it will
only be weeks before a new supply comes in from Iran through Egypt,
through the Rafah crossing. Reuters and Debka

****
**** Hamas's miscalculations in provoking Gaza War
****

I frequently use the phrase "danger of miscalculation" in various
situations. For example, in the East China Sea, where Chinese war
ships and Japanese coast guard ships are circling each other and the
Senkaku/Diayou islands, there's a danger of miscalculation -- an
accidental weapon firing or something -- that could spiral into a
major confrontation.

There are reports that Hamas actually did miscalculate in provoking
the Gaza war with Israel. Hamas seems to have believed it had a free
hand to do what it wanted because Israel would not want to risk
angering Egypt's government or Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. But Israel
went ahead with its military campaign anyway, and Egypt's president
Mohamed Morsi, while harshly condemning Israel's actions, is working
to mediate a truce, as we reported yesterday.

It's also worth stopping a moment and reminding ourselves what's going
on here. These discussions about reservists and miscalculations are
about what politicians say and do.

But as I point out frequently, it's a basic principle of Generational
Dynamics that politicians matter very little in bringing about great
events, even in a dictatorship. It's the great masses of people,
entire generations of people, that bring them about, and politicians
are irrelevant except insofar as they're following the wishes of the
masses of people.

In this case, the firing of rockets into Israel has a great deal of
popular support among Gazans, and it's not clear that the Hamas
government could prevent the firing even if it wanted to. In fact,
there have been numerous reports in the past that Hamas is unable to
control Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups that are launching
the rockets.

In the case of Israel, it's clear that Netanyahu has no choice. The
people of Israel are frightened and furious, and are demanding that
something be done. I've heard some analysts say that Netanyahu is
taking a "risky gamble," but in fact he's not gambling anything
because he has no choice. He's doing what he has to do, and he can
neither bring about a good outcome nor prevent a bad one. The Mideast
is now on automatic flight control. Washington Institute

****
**** Little input from Taiwan in the Japan - China dispute over the Senkaku Islands
****

As the disagreement over sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diayou islands
gathered steam in the last few months, Taiwan mostly stayed out of it,
even though Taiwan also claims sovereignty over the same islands.
There were a couple of critical statements, and there was a
high-profile "sea protest" involving hundreds of Taiwanese fishing
vessels, but it ended quickly. Taiwan's non-involvement is partially
due to political disputes within Taiwan's government over whether
Taiwan should be an independent nation or a province of mainland
China. But the major reasons seems to be an almost total lack of
interest in the issue on the part of the Taiwanese people. Attempts by
activists to generate large protests have backfired when participants
were simply uninterested. There is Taiwanese nationalism on other
issues, but not on this issue, and there is little Taiwanese
xenophobia towards the Japanese. This is in contrast to the Chinese
people who are so xenophobic and nationalistic that they've been
assaulting Japanese on the streets, smashing Japanese factories, and
boycotting Japanese products en masse. As I said earlier, it's
the great masses of people that determine government policy, not the
politicians. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Iron Dome, Hamas, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Hizbollah, Lebanon, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Islamic Jihad, Japan, China, Senkaku Islands, Diayou Islands, Taiwan

Permanent web link to this article
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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Little input from Taiwan in the Japan - China dispute over the Senkaku Islands
****

As the disagreement over sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diayou islands
gathered steam in the last few months, Taiwan mostly stayed out of it,
even though Taiwan also claims sovereignty over the same islands.
There were a couple of critical statements, and there was a
high-profile "sea protest" involving hundreds of Taiwanese fishing
vessels, but it ended quickly. Taiwan's non-involvement is partially
due to political disputes within Taiwan's government over whether
Taiwan should be an independent nation or a province of mainland
China. But the major reasons seems to be an almost total lack of
interest in the issue on the part of the Japanese people. Attempts by
activists to generate large protests have backfired when participants
were simply uninterested. There is Taiwanese nationalism on other
issues, but not on this issue, and there is little Taiwanese
xenophobia towards the Japanese. This is in contrast to the Chinese
people who are so xenophobic and nationalistic that they've been
assaulting Japanese on the streets, smashing Japanese factories, and
boycotting Japanese products en masse. As I said earlier, it's
the great masses of people that determine government policy, not the
politicians. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Iron Dome, Hamas, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Hizbollah, Lebanon, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Islamic Jihad, Japan, China, Senkaku Islands, Diayou Islands, Taiwan

Permanent web link to this article
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Appartently, on Taiwan the Japanese occupations era is seen as a modernizing era. High era perhaps? And is seen almost remembered nostalgically by some. Apparently there is some evidence that there really are two Chinas.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 17-Nov-12 World View -- Israel apparently prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel apparently prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza
• Hamas's miscalculations in provoking Gaza War
• Little input from Taiwan in the Japan - China dispute over the Senkaku Islands

****
**** Israel apparently prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza
****


Israel launches a rocket from its 'Iron Dome' defensive system to intercept an incoming missile launched form Gaza. (Reuters)

Tanks and troops are massing on Israel's border with Gaza, and on
Friday evening, Israel's cabinet authorized mobilization of up to
75,000 reservists, up from just 16,000 authorized the day before, with
30,000 already reporting for duty in their home districts. These
moves are reactions to long-range rockets from Gaza reaching as far as
Jerusalem, though without yet creating damage or casualties. But the
vulnerability of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem to rocket attacks from Gaza
is causing Israel to get panicky.

Recall that in 2006, Israel went to war with Hizbollah in Lebanon,
within four hours of the capture of two Israeli soldier, with no plan,
and no objective, resulting in total chaos.

The current situation has the same feeling of Israel panicking.
However, we have to assume that the Israelis learned a lot from 2006,
and that they have a plan. Possibly the military buildup is just a
bluff, and there's no intention of invading. Or the invasion may have
begun by the time you read this. If the invasion does take place,
it's hard to see what the objective will be. Even in the unlikely
event that Israel manages to destroy every missile in Gaza, it will
only be weeks before a new supply comes in from Iran through Egypt,
through the Rafah crossing. Reuters and Debka

****
**** Hamas's miscalculations in provoking Gaza War
****

I frequently use the phrase "danger of miscalculation" in various
situations. For example, in the East China Sea, where Chinese war
ships and Japanese coast guard ships are circling each other and the
Senkaku/Diayou islands, there's a danger of miscalculation -- an
accidental weapon firing or something -- that could spiral into a
major confrontation.

There are reports that Hamas actually did miscalculate in provoking
the Gaza war with Israel. Hamas seems to have believed it had a free
hand to do what it wanted because Israel would not want to risk
angering Egypt's government or Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. But Israel
went ahead with its military campaign anyway, and Egypt's president
Mohamed Morsi, while harshly condemning Israel's actions, is working
to mediate a truce, as we reported yesterday.

It's also worth stopping a moment and reminding ourselves what's going
on here. These discussions about reservists and miscalculations are
about what politicians say and do.

But as I point out frequently, it's a basic principle of Generational
Dynamics that politicians matter very little in bringing about great
events, even in a dictatorship. It's the great masses of people,
entire generations of people, that bring them about, and politicians
are irrelevant except insofar as they're following the wishes of the
masses of people.

In this case, the firing of rockets into Israel has a great deal of
popular support among Gazans, and it's not clear that the Hamas
government could prevent the firing even if it wanted to. In fact,
there have been numerous reports in the past that Hamas is unable to
control Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups that are launching
the rockets.

In the case of Israel, it's clear that Netanyahu has no choice. The
people of Israel are frightened and furious, and are demanding that
something be done. I've heard some analysts say that Netanyahu is
taking a "risky gamble," but in fact he's not gambling anything
because he has no choice. He's doing what he has to do, and he can
neither bring about a good outcome nor prevent a bad one. The Mideast
is now on automatic flight control. Washington Institute

****
**** Little input from Taiwan in the Japan - China dispute over the Senkaku Islands
****

As the disagreement over sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diayou islands
gathered steam in the last few months, Taiwan mostly stayed out of it,
even though Taiwan also claims sovereignty over the same islands.
There were a couple of critical statements, and there was a
high-profile "sea protest" involving hundreds of Taiwanese fishing
vessels, but it ended quickly. Taiwan's non-involvement is partially
due to political disputes within Taiwan's government over whether
Taiwan should be an independent nation or a province of mainland
China. But the major reasons seems to be an almost total lack of
interest in the issue on the part of the Taiwanese people. Attempts by
activists to generate large protests have backfired when participants
were simply uninterested. There is Taiwanese nationalism on other
issues, but not on this issue, and there is little Taiwanese
xenophobia towards the Japanese. This is in contrast to the Chinese
people who are so xenophobic and nationalistic that they've been
assaulting Japanese on the streets, smashing Japanese factories, and
boycotting Japanese products en masse. As I said earlier, it's
the great masses of people that determine government policy, not the
politicians. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Iron Dome, Hamas, Gaza, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Hizbollah, Lebanon, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Islamic Jihad, Japan, China, Senkaku Islands, Diayou Islands, Taiwan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

I'd been following the news last night, when it was clear that both sides were plastering each other with missiles. My response to this story today is the same as it was last night. "Oh, !@#$! Now we're in for it!"

*** 18-Nov-12 World View -- Egypt and Turkey play crucial negotiating role for Israel/Gaza war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• With Israelis cast as villains people wonder about a ground invasion of Gaza
• Turkey and Egypt take the lead in mediating a Gaza truce
• Israel's 'Iron Dome' air defense system a game changer

****
**** With Israelis cast as villains people wonder about a ground invasion of Gaza
****


Israeli soldiers gather next to their armored bulldozers stationed on Israel's border with Gaza on Saturday, awaiting orders for the ground invasion (CNN)

The Israelis are being cast as the villains in the Gaza conflict by
pro-Palestinian protesters around the world -- in America, Canada,
Britain, Russia, Europe, and Iran, as well as in Arab countries.
Britain's prime minister David Cameron expressed his sympathy for the
unacceptable rocket attacks on Israel, but said the UK was pressuring
both sides to de-escalate, and urged Israel's prime minister Netanyahu
to do everything possible to bring the conflict to an end.

With worldwide pressure continuing to build on Israel not to launch a
ground invasion of Gaza, Israeli troops and tanks have been traveling
to the border with Gaza but (as of this writing on Saturday evening
ET) there's been no sign that a ground invasion was imminent. The war
appears to have reached a kind of stasis -- Hamas is launching
hundreds of missiles into Israel, and Israel is launching hundreds of
air strikes at Hamas targets in Gaza. It's possible that Israel is
using the air strikes to soften up Gaza's military before a ground
invasion, or it's possible that Israel has decided that it has nothing
more to gain with a ground invasion than it can get with air strikes.
BBC

****
**** Turkey and Egypt take the lead in mediating a Gaza truce
****

What happens next appears to hinge on the negotiating skills of
Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi and Turkey's prime minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan. The two Sunni Muslim leaders met in Cairo on Saturday
for an emergency Arab League which, as usual, did nothing more than
issue speeches and declarations. However, Morsi and Erdogan have
personally committed to bringing about a truce between Hamas and
Israel, and with President Barack Obama having little remaining
credibility in the Mideast, Morsi and Erdogan are best positioned to
mediate.

Erdogan vowed support for the Palestinians, and said that sooner or
later, Israel will have to pay the price for the children killed in
Gaza. He added that Egypt and Turkey are capable of jointly bringing
stability to the Middle East, without the need of outside "brokers."

It appears that the key to any mediation is to convince Hamas and
Islamic Jihad to stop launching rockets into Israel. From Israel's
point of view, that would presumably remove the need for continued
military action, as long as both sides continue to honor the truce for
more than a few minutes. Zaman (Istanbul) and Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Israel's 'Iron Dome' air defense system a game changer
****

"Iron Dome" is the name of Israel's defense system against short-range
missiles coming from Gaza. Iron Dome detects incoming missiles and launches
its own missile to intercept and destroy the incoming missile. According
to the Israeli military, it works in all weather conditions:

"The radar detects a rocket launch and passes
information regarding its path to the control center, which
calculates the predicted point of impact. If this location
justifies an interception, a missile is fired to intercept the
rocket. The payload of the interceptor missile explodes near the
rocket, in a place that is not expected to cause
injuries."

On Saturday, Jerusalem was saved from an incoming missile by an Iron Dome
intercept.

In 2011, Israel's military said that Iron Dome had a 70% success rate.
Over the past three days, 737 rockets from Gaza were fired into
Israel: 492 landed, but 245 were intercepted by the Iron Dome system.
CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, Turkey,
Iron Dome, Mohamed Morsi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Hamas, Islamic Jihad

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*** 19-Nov-12 World View -- Israeli delegation goes to Cairo for peace talks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Farcical MF Global decision excuses Jon Corzine and employees from guilt
• The Metastasis of Corruption
• Israel fires artillery into Syria for the third time
• Israeli delegation goes to Cairo for peace talks

****
**** Farcical MF Global decision excuses Jon Corzine and employees from guilt
****


Jon Corzine

In November 2011, the hedge fund firm MF Global went bankrupt. The
company had intermingled customer funds with company funds, when the
two were supposed to be segregated. As a result, $1.6 billion in
customer funds were missing. Those investors who had simply trusted
MF Global to hold their money safely lost their money.

The company's chairman and CEO was Jon Corzine, former Democratic
party U.S. senator and Democratic governor of New Jersey and one-time
chairman of Goldman Sachs. When Corzine was asked by a congressional
committee where the money was, he said that he had no idea which of
his subordinates was responsible for losing it. "I simply do not know
where the money is," he said, adding that he was "stunned" to learn it
was missing.

Well, since Corzine is a Democrat, the Obama administration and Eric
Holder's Justice Department refused to investigate. This is because
the Obama administration accepts millions of dollars in political
contributions, and would much rather let these mega-criminals go free
than do something that would protect American citizens from crooks.

And so, the Republicans in the House of Representatives decided to
investigate, in the Financial Services Committee. But we have to
remember that the Republicans ALSO receive fat contributions from
financial mega-criminals, so they don't want really want to
investigate either, but the political pressure was so great that they
had to do an investigation.

The full committee report was published on Thursday. Here's the major
conclusion, on page 78 of the report:

"As MF Global’s chief executive, Corzine was
responsible for ensuring that the company maintained integrated
systems and controls for managing the company’s liquidity and
protecting customer funds. However, under Corzine’s tenure, the
company’s cash management, liquidity monitoring, and regulatory
compliance functions remained fragmented among several of the
company’s departments. MF Global lacked any formal liquidity
management framework, and the company could not fully assess and
anticipate its liquidity needs. Under Corzine’s leadership, the
company failed to address concerns raised in an internal audit
suggesting that MF Global’s liquidity tracking and forecasting
capabilities lagged behind the firm’s evolving business needs.

Consequently, MF Global was unable to coordinate its activities
during the liquidity crisis in its final days of operation. As the
company struggled to find additional liquidity, company employees
identified excess company funds held in customer accounts.
However, because they did not have an accurate accounting of the
amount of customer funds the company held, they withdrew customer
funds as well as company funds. Prosecutors and MF Global’s
regulators will determine whether the company or its employees
violated laws or regulations when these withdrawals were
made. However, the responsibility for failing to maintain the
systems and controls necessary to protect customer funds rests
with Corzine. This failure represented a dereliction of his duty
as MF Global’s Chairman and CEO."

Please note the following:

• Corzine wasn't really at fault, because he didn't understand
  what was going on.
  
• The people who worked for Corzine aren't at fault, because Corzine
  didn't understand what was going on.

This is a farcical piece of crap, but it's typical of Washington and
Wall Street these days. But if you think that there's no more to the
farce, then you're wrong.

The piece of crap was prepared by the staff of Republican Randy
Neugebauer, who is chairman of the committee.

But get this: Even though the report barely assigns any blame to
Corzine, the Democratic co-chair of the committee, Michael E. Capuano,
refused to sign off on the report. I assume that Capuano is in bed
with Corzine or, if not, a lot of other Democratic financial types.
Washington Post and House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations

****
**** The Metastasis of Corruption
****

As I've been pointing out for years, there has not been a single
conviction from the financial crisis, even though the evidence is
overwhelming that investment banks purposely and knowingly created
trillions of dollars in fraudulent subprime-mortgage backed synthetic
securities, and then purposely and knowingly defrauded thousands of
investors. (See my April, 2010, article "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud.")
And yet, the Obama administration adamantly refuses to prosecute these
criminals, because they helped get Obama reelected with huge campaign
contributions.

(It would have been very interesting to see whether a Romney Justice
Department would have acted any differently, but I guess we'll never
know.)

The way that the fraud was committed is now well known. Gen-Xers
poured out of business schools in the 1990s with Masters degrees in
"financial engineering," which gave them the skills to create this
fraud. After the Nasdaq crash in 2000, many of them lost money and
they blamed it on the hated Boomers. They went into financial
institutions with the intent to get even, and they did. They
committed these crimes under the noses of their Boomer bosses, just as
Corzine's employees did at MF Global.

As I've also said for years, since crimes aren't being prosecuted, the
same people are in the same jobs, finding new ways to commit fraud.

Today we have huge sums of money pouring out of the Fed or the
European Central Bank into the hands of the same banks that caused the
financial crisis in the first place. They no longer have to be subtle
about committing fraud, since the central banks are now just letting
them defraud the taxpayers legally.

This is a new phenomenon. Whereas the fraud began in a specific way,
with Gen-Xers purposely defrauding Boomers, the fraud has metastisized
so that everyone in Washington and Brussels and on Wall Street are now
part of it. Those huge sums of money are flowing into the coffers of
politicians and into the multi-million dollar bonuses of banksters and
into big contracts with favored companies like Solyndra and General
Electric, but almost none of it is flowing into the hands of ordinary
people or small businessmen. And don't get me started (again) on the
catastrophic financial corruption in things like climate change and
Obamacare.

Hannah Arendt, in her 1949 book "Origins of Totalitarianism,"
described a similar phenomenon in Germany in the lead-up to the
Holocaust. She described Bertolt Brecht's famous play The
Three-Penny Opera as presenting "gangsters as respectable
businessmen and respectable businessmen as gangsters." I will at some
later date quote a lot more from Arendt's book to show how 1930s
Germany was similar to America today, but for now I simply want to
make Arendt's point that it was massive financial corruption that
preceded the Holocaust.

I've written about the comparion between today and 1930s Germany many
times. In the 1930s, the younger Lost Generation hated the previous
Missionary Generation just as much as today's younger Gen-Xers hate
the previous Boomer Generation. (See "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust"
) The
attitudes and behaviors of today's Gen-Xers are the same as the
attitudes and behaviors of 1930s Lost Generation Germans.

Ordinary Lost Generation Germans blamed Jews for Germany's humiliation
in the Great War, and for Germany's financial problems. In 1934, the
German government passed only fairly simple discriminatory laws
against the Jews. This corresponds to the actions of "financial
engineers" in the 2004-2007 time period.

However, these simple laws metastasized into greater and greater
discrimination, with a turning point being reached with Kristallnacht
in 1938, where Nazi gangs destroyed Jewish property across the
country, with "fashionably dressed women clapping their hands and
screaming with glee, while respectable middle-class mothers held up
their babies to see the 'fun.'" After that, Lost Generation criminals
were fully in charge of Germany's government. By 1942, the criminal
activity had metastasized completely in the concentration camps and
the Holocaust.

Today we're seeing same metastasis in Washington and Wall Street, as
Gen-X criminality spreads to everyone, Gen-Xers and Boomers alike.

I've had dozens of conversations with Gen-Xers in the last few years
as they twist themselves into pretzels giving me tortured explanations
why the Obama administration should not investigate and prosecute
financial engineers who engineered the financial crisis. I've seen
several of them act just as gleefully as the fashionable women of
Berlin did in seeing Jewish property destroyed. "They were victims of
their Boomer bosses," is the moronic argument I always hear, just as
German war criminals justified their actions in exactly the same way
after the war.

Interestingly, what I've heard at least a dozen times is: "I'm not
opposed to people going to jail. For example, I'd like to see Jon
Corzine go to jail." However, they never mention Corzine's employees
going to jail as well.

Well, isn't that hilarious. The Republicans investigated Corzine for
a year, and came to the farcical conclusion last week that Corzine was
guilty of nothing more than innocent confusion, as were his employees.
So you can see why the Gen-X argument I just quoted really is truly
moronic.

The 1930s Holocaust was not just caused by the few Germans who ran the
trains and the concentration camps, in cooperation with the mainstream
media. It was caused by millions of German businessmen and
politicians who refused to acknowledge that crimes were being
committed, or to do anything about them. Today's Gen-Xers have
exactly the same attitudes and behaviors as ordinary 1930s Germans.

I would like to send a message to President Barack Obama, to AG Eric
Holder, to Republican Randy Neugebauer, to Democrat Michael
E. Capuano, and to all the other Gen-Xers and Boomers who refuse to
acknowledge criminality because they benefit from it:

You are the Rudolph Hess, the Hermann Göring, the Ernst Kaltenbrunner,
the Albert Speer of today.

If you've ever wondered how the Holocaust was even possible, then you
should know that if you had lived in the 1930s rather than today, then
you would would have been the ones sending Jews to their deaths in
concentration camps. You have the same attitudes and behaviors as
those men did in the 1930s, and you are just as much criminals as they
were. If you've ever stopped to wonder how the Holocaust could have
happened, now you know.

****
**** Israel fires artillery into Syria for the third time
****

Syria's conflict may be "last week's war," but the Gaza conflict
hasn't affected it, except to remove it from the front pages. On
Sunday, Israel shelled Syrian fighters in Syria, after soldiers in
Syria fired gunshots into the Golan Heights. According to the Israeli
military, the Israelis scored a hit, though they don't know whether
the hit was on supporters of Bashar al-Assad or the opposition.
Irish Times

****
**** Israeli delegation goes to Cairo for peace talks
****

Negotiators from Israel and Hamas are arriving in Cairo Egypt to begin
peace talks to end the Gaza war. Sunday was the deadliest day of the
war for Gaza, but so far there's no sign that an Israeli ground
invasion is imminent.

Israel's objectives in the war are to destroy as much of Hamas's missile
launching capability as possible. Israel's objectives in the peace talks
are to get guarantees that there will be no more rocket attacks.

Hamas's objectives in the war and in the peace talks are to loosen the
blockade around Gaza, and to permanently open the crossing into Egypt, so
that goods and people can flow back and forth unhindered.

Israel will disagree with Hamas's objectives, saying that they will permit
Hamas to import a new supply of rockets and other weapons to be used
against Israel.

Hamas will not be capable of guaranteeing that there will be no more
rocket attacks, since Hamas is unable to control Islamic Jihad and
other Shia militant groups. As I've pointed out in the past, the
average age of the people in Gaza is 17 (contrasted to 37 for the
United States), meaning that Gaza is a region made up of little
children running around with guns and missiles. AP

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jon Corzine, MF Global,
Barack Obama, Eric Holder, Randy Neugebauer,
Michael E. Capuano, Metastisis, Hannah Arendt,
Lost Generation, Missionary Generation,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Israel, Hamas, Gaza,
Egypt, Islamic Jihad

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*** 20-Nov-12 World View -- U.S. Navy warships head for eastern Mediterranean

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. Navy warships head for eastern Mediterranean
• Israel reaches a crossroads in the Gaza conflict
• Turkey's Erdogan lashes out at U.N. and Israel after being one-upped by Egypt's Morsi
• Britain, with growing anti-European mood, may leave the EU
• Eurogroup finance ministers to meet on Tuesday about Greece

****
**** U.S. Navy warships head for eastern Mediterranean
****


U.S.S. Iwo Jima heading for eastern Mediterranean on Monday

Three U.S. Navy amphibious warships are going to the eastern
Mediterranean to stand by in case they are needed to help evacuate
Americans from Israel. The possibility of an evacuation is considered
remote as a contingency. The estimated 2,500 Marines on board will
now have their homecoming to America delayed for several days.
CNN

****
**** Israel reaches a crossroads in the Gaza conflict
****

On the sixth day of Israel's military operation in Gaza, its air force
struck over 80 targets in Gaza, while Hamas and Islamic Jihad fired
130 rockets into Israel, many of which were intercepted by the Iron
Dome missile defense system. At this writing on Monday evening,
Israel's cabinet is meeting to discuss what to do next. The major
choices are:

• Accept a proposed truce offered by Egyptian negotiators in
  Cairo. This seems to be unlikely at this stage, as it's unlikely that
  it would last more than a day.
  
• Begin a ground invasion of Gaza. This would be a major
  commitment, resulting in numerous deaths and condemnation from many
  parts of the world.
  
• Kick the can down the road by continuing the current military
  operation.

In many ways, this is a no-win situation for Israel. Jerusalem Post and Washington Post

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan lashes out at U.N. and Israel after being one-upped by Egypt's Morsi
****

Although Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi and Turkey's prime minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan are supposed to be jointly working as negotiators
to get a truce in the Israel/Gaza conflict, the United Nations has put
Erdogan in a secondary role to Morsi. One of the reasons is that
Morsi is taking a more statesmanlike approach to the negotiations, and
is talking to both Hamas and Israel, while Erdogan has refused to talk
to Israel since the latter refused to apologize for the deaths of nine
Turkish citizens in the May 31, 2010, confrontation between Israel's
armed forces and the Gaza "Freedom Flotilla." Erdogan's unwillingness
to even talk to Israel has made him a poor choice for negotiator. So
Erdogan lashed out at the United Nations on Monday, saying that he
doesn't trust the organization because it lacks a Muslim voice. He
also lashed out at Israel, saying that it was a "terrorist state." He
said that the West ignore the "sufferings of Muslims in Palestine,
Syria and Myanmar because of lack of oil." Hurriyet (Ankara) and Bloomberg

****
**** Britain, with growing anti-European mood, may leave the EU
****

The recent bitter negotiations between Britain and negotiators in
Brussels is causing increased "Eurosceptism" in Britain. Prime
minister David Cameron is threatening to veto spending increases in
the EU budget, and there is increased talk, in both Britain and
Brussels, of Britain leaving the European Union. However, a British
business confederation is warning that leaving the EU would be bad for
Britain:

"It is like many relationships: can't live with you,
can't live without you. Whatever the popular appeal may be of
withdrawal, businessmen and politicians must keep the bridge to
Europe firmly in place."

Reuters

****
**** Eurogroup finance ministers to meet on Tuesday about Greece
****

A meeting on Tuesday of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers to
discuss approving the next bailout payment to Greece is expected to
generate more heat than light. A sharp disagreement between Eurogroup
president Jean-Claude Jüncker and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
chief Christine Lagarde broke out into the public last week, and it's
far from resolved. Jüncker would like to find a way to give Greece
additional bailout money and to postpone some of Greece's austerity
commitments, while Lagarde is insisting the previous agreements be
honored. Dow Jones


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, U.S. warships, Egypt, Hamas, Gaza,
Islamic Jihad, Mohamed Morsi, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Britain, European Union, Euroscepticism, Greece, Eurogroup,
Jean-Claude Jüncker, Christine Lagarde, IMF

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*** 21-Nov-12 World View -- Gaza-Israel truce deal fails to materialize

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Purported Gaza-Israel truce deal fails to materialize
• Panicked Gazans run from their homes as Israel drops leaflets on Gaza City
• China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting

****
**** Purported Gaza-Israel truce deal fails to materialize
****


Hillary Clinton and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in Jerusalem on Tuesday (CBS)

Rumors flew on Tuesday that a ceasefire deal between Gaza and Israel
was imminent. Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi was quoted as saying,

"The farce of the Israeli aggression will end today,
Tuesday, and the efforts to reach a ceasefire between the
Palestinians and Israelis will produce positive results within a
few hours."

Sources from Hamas and Islamic Jihad also said that there would be a
deal on Tuesday evening, but Israel did not confirm. Israel has said
that a peace deal they would agree to a peace deal only when there are
international guarantees that there would be no further missile
attacks from Gaza for a long period of time. Otherwise, a peace deal
would only be temporary, since Iran would simply take advantage of a
peace deal to supply Hamas with thousands more rockets to be used to
attack Israel.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is currently visiting both
parties in the Mideast with the objective of pressuring both sides to
accept a peace deal. Telegraph (London) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Panicked Gazans run from their homes as Israel drops leaflets on Gaza City
****

On the seventh day of the Gaza conflict, Israel's air force dropped
leaflets across Gaza City telling residents in Arabic:

"For your own safety, you are required to immediately
evacuate your homes and move toward Gaza City center. ...

This is a temporary confrontation. In the end, everyone will go
home.

In keeping with Israel Defense Forces (army) regulations, all
civilians will be kept from harm's way."

The leaflets directed residents to use specific roads to move out of
their neighborhoods to specific locations. Panicked residents,
fearful of airstrikes, used donkeys and carts to flee to the
designated areas for safety, only to find some times that there was no
room left.

Separately, the army posted the following message on Twitter: "Warning
to reporters in Gaza. Stay away from Hamas operatives and
facilities. Hamas, a terrorist group, will use you as human shields."

Tuesday was probably the most violent day so far in the week old
conflict, with hundreds of missiles and rockets flying back and forth
between Gaza and Israel. AFP and ABC News

****
**** China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting
****

Not that it's going to make any real difference, but at
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN] in Cambodia
this week, China's attempt to win a diplomatic victory over control
of the South China Sea backfired, forcing China to agree to
negotiate disputes through ASEAN, rather than through one-on-one
bilateral negotiations with each country.

In the last couple of years, China has become extremely nationalistic
and belligerent, and has been adopting a policy similar to Hitler's
"Lebensraum" policy in the 1930s, with respect to territories in the
Pacific Ocean, India, and central Asia. In the South China Sea, China
is demanding control of vast regions, including areas historically
belonging to Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
China is using its vast military power to take control of this entire
region, including setting up a military installation in the Paracel
Islands.

Part of China's strategy all along has been to demand negotiations
with each country on an individual basis, so that it could dominate
the negotiations. However, the other countries have been
demanding to force China to negotiate with them as a bloc, to
get them more negotiating power. The United States has been
encouraging this approach, which has infuriated the Chinese,
calling Americans "troublemakers."

At this week's ASEAN meeting, China got its ally, Cambodia,
to put forth a draft agreement saying that all sides had
agreed not to "internationalize" the dispute over the South
China Sea. However, the attempt backfired, as the Philippines
objected to the draft statement, forcing it to be rejected.
As a result, the Chinese representative said:

"China will continue to come back [with] sincere
dialogue with ASEAN countries and to fully implement in an
effective way the DOC so that all parties can accumulate mutual
trust and carry on cooperation and put this issue of South China
Sea in good control so that we can work together to safeguard
peace, stability, cooperation, and development."

China was forced into taking the position diplomatically, but it
doesn't change any reality in the South China Sea. CS Monitor and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hillary Clinton,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Hamas,
Islamic Jihad, ASEAN, Lebensraum, China, Cambodia,
Philippines

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*** 22-Nov-12 World View -- Egypt's Mohamed Morsi a big winner in Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel-Hamas agreement leaves many details unspecified
• Islamic Jihad confirms that the Gaza missiles were supplied by iran
• The winners: Mohamed Morsi, Khaled Meshaal; the losers: Mahmoud Abbas, Recep Tayyip Erdogan
• Hamas celebrates Tel Aviv bus bombing
• Turkey asks Nato for Patriot missiles for border with Syria

****
**** Israel-Hamas agreement leaves many details unspecified
****


Celebrations in Gaza over the cease fire agreement

There's a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the Egypt-brokered
cease fire agreement signed by Israel and Hamas on Wednesday. The
signed agreement is one page long, though there are apparently
additional unstated agreements. As far as is known, here are the
terms:

• Both sides agree to halt all hostilities, with Israel
  desisting from incursions and targeting of individuals, while all
  Palestinian factions should cease rocket fire and cross-border
  attacks.
  
• It says little about the Hamas demand to lift the blockade around
  Gaza. It calls for an easing of some restrictions on Gaza residents,
  but says that procedures for implementing them would be "dealt with
  after 24 hours from the start of the ceasefire."
  
• It says nothing about the Israeli demand that Iran not be allowed
  to re-arm Hamas with thousands of new missiles. However, there are
  unconfirmed reports that the United States and Egypt are somehow
  supposed to guarantee that missiles will flow into Gaza. How that
  might happen is completely unexplained.
  
• Hamas is to enforce the ban on rocket fire into Israel, even by
  other jihadist militias operating within Gaza. Hamas have never
  succeeded in doing that before, so it's not clear how it will be done
  now.

Israeli forces and tanks have been camped on the border with Gaza for
several days, prepared for a ground invasion, and they are remaining
in place for the time being. Israel may reduce the size of the force
in the next few days, depending on how things turn out.

There is considerable skepticism that the ceasefire will last long,
but for the time being, everyone is pretending to be optimistic.
Irish Times and LA Times

****
**** Islamic Jihad confirms that the Gaza missiles were supplied by iran
****

Prior to the ceasefire, Islamic Jihad leader Ramadhan Abdallah Shalah
confirmed that the missiles were supplied by Iran:

"With regard to the Iranian position – even if we have
disagreements with Iran regarding the situation in Syria, I don’t
think that we, as the Palestinian resistance, have disagreements
with Iran regarding what is happening in Palestine, or regarding
the Zionist aggression against the Gaza Strip. With regard to
Palestine, we are in complete agreement with Iran. Iran has given
us all the aid and all the support. The weapons that are fighting
the Israeli aggression and arrogance in Palestine come mainly from
Iran, as the entire world knows. This is no secret. These are
either Iranian weapons or weapons financed by Iran."

Islamic Jihad Deputy Secretary-General Ziyad Nakhala said:

"We are on the brink of a great victory, Allah
willing. This is a new stage in the conflict with the Zionist
enterprise. ...

This wonderful weapon has proven its significant role in
battle. The missiles have changed the balance of power, and have
proven to Israel that we can shell their cities like they shell
ours, and that we can shell their military camps like they shell
our children. ...

These missiles have restored the honor of the Palestinian
people. We received these missiles from our allies and brothers in
the Islamic Republic. They have generally given us these missiles,
exerting great effort. These missiles have changed the equation in
this conflict."

Memri

****
**** The winners: Mohamed Morsi, Khaled Meshaal; the losers: Mahmoud Abbas, Recep Tayyip Erdogan
****

Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi emerged as the major winner in the
negotiation that ended with a peace agreement between Israel and
Hamas. Morsi was able to accomplish a lot more than the deposed
president Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak never particularly liked Hamas, and
he cooperated fully with Israel by keeping the border between Gaza and
Egypt sealed. But Hamas was originally an offshoot of the Muslim
Brotherhood, of which Morsi is a leading member, and from the start of
his presidency he made his sympathy for the Gazans clear. At the same
time, he maintained friendly, if distant, relations with Israel, and
adamantly refused to abrogate the 1979 peace treaty with Israel,
despite some domestic demands that he do so.

Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a major loser in the
negotiations. Erdogan strategy for several years has been to become
the leader in the Sunni Arab world, regaining some of the prestige
that Turkey once held as leader of the Ottoman Empire. Part of that
strategy has been to end normal relations with Israel, but that
strategy really backfired this past week, as it essentially
disqualified him as a negotiator between Israel and Hamas.

Another major loser was Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas.
Abbas is nominally the major negotiating partner with Israel in
negotiations for a two-state solution (Israel and Palestine) in the
Mideast, and is currently scheduled to come to the United Nations
General Assembly on November 29 to obtain recognition of a Palestinian
state.

Instead, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has become something of a
superstar, and was seen frequently on Wednesday declaring victory over
Israel. Hamas has become "someone you can do business with."
Washington Post

****
**** Hamas celebrates Tel Aviv bus bombing
****

Prior to the ceasefire announcement, a terrorist bomb exploded on a
bus in Tel Aviv, injuring 23 people, one severely. Hamas did not take
credit for the bombing, but said: "Hamas blesses the attack in Tel
Aviv and sees it as a natural response to the Israeli massacres...in
Gaza." Jerusalem Post

****
**** Turkey asks Nato for Patriot missiles for border with Syria
****

Now that the Gaza problem has been "solved," it's time to start
focusing again on the conflict in Syria.

Nato member Turkey has asked Nato to provide advanced Patriot
missiles to be deployed on the border with Syria. Nato
ambassadors met on Wednesday to discuss the request "without delay."

The Patriot missile system performs the same function as Israel's Iron
Dome missile system in the Gaza war -- to intercept and knock down
incoming missiles. The Patriot system can also target aircraft.

According to Nato Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said:

"Such a deployment would augment Turkey’s air-defense
capabilities to defend the population and territory of Turkey. It
would contribute to the de-escalation of the crisis along NATO’s
southeastern border."

The Patriot systems would not be supplied by Nato. They would be
supplied by the individual Nato members that actually have these
systems -- Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.S.

Since Turkey already has a big air force, it's not clear what's
going on here. There have been stray mortar shells from Syria
landing in Turkey the last few weeks, and several people have been
killed, but Patriot missiles are not designed for stray mortar
shells.

There are two possible purposes for these Patriot missiles. One is to
help establish a no-fly zone over Syria. The other is for defense in
case of a Syrian attack, especially with chemical weapons. Turkey
says that neither of these is planned.

Whatever the intent, the introduction of a Patriot missile system
signals an escalation of the Syrian conflict, and greater Nato
involvement. Guardian (London) and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Israel, Hamas, Mohamed Morsi,
Gaza, Islamic Jihad, Ramadhan Abdallah Shalah,
Khaled Meshaal, Mahmoud Abbas, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Turkey, Nato, Patriot missiles, Syria,
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Germany, Netherlands

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*** 23-Nov-12 World View -- Mohamed Morsi appoints himself 'Pharaoh' of Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's Morsi 'appoints himself Pharaoh' usurping all state powers
• Full text of Israel-Hamas cease-fire agreement
• For Gaza, 'Opening the crossings' remains a problem
• As Greece's economy unravels, suicides and attacks on immigrants soar
• Pakistan twin Taliban bombings kill 37 Shia Muslim worshipers

****
**** Egypt's Morsi 'appoints himself Pharaoh' usurping all state powers
****


Mohamed Morsi (AP)

Many Egyptians were shocked on Thursday by the announcement,
accompanied by nationalistic music, of a new decree by president
Mohamed Morsi granting himself extensive additional powers. Any
decisions that he took since taking office in June, and any decisions
he takes in the future, are final and not subject to review by the
courts or appeal. According to the announcement,

"The President may take the necessary actions and
measures to protect the country and the goals of the
revolution."

In an attempt to be a crowd-pleaser, Morsi said that the
police officers who were acquitted last year for killing protesters
will be retried.

According to opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei:

"Morsi today usurped all state powers & appointed
himself Egypt’s new pharaoh. A major blow to the revolution that
could have dire consequences."

The surprise announcement triggered competing demonstrations in Cairo
by supporters and opponents of Morsi. Washington Post

****
**** Full text of Israel-Hamas cease-fire agreement
****

Here is the full text of the agreement that the two sides
signed on Wednesday:

"Understanding Regarding Ceasefire in Gaza Strip

1. a. Israel should stop all hostilities in the Gaza Strip land,
sea and air including incursions and targeting of individuals.

b. All Palestinian factions shall stop all hostilities from the
Gaza Strip against Israel including rocket attacks and all attacks
along the border.

c. Opening the crossings and facilitating the movements of people
and transfer of goods and refraining from restricting residents’
free movements and targeting residents in border areas and
procedures of implementation shall be dealt with after 24 hours
from the start of the ceasefire.

d. Other matters as may be requested shall be addressed.

2. Implementation Mechanism:

a. Setting up the zero hour for the ceasefire understanding to
enter into effect.

b. Egypt shall receive assurances from each party that the party
commits to what was agreed upon.

c. Each party shall commit itself not to perform any acts that
would breach this understanding. In case of any observations Egypt
as the sponsor of this understanding shall be informed to follow
up."

Washington Post

****
**** For Gaza, 'Opening the crossings' remains a problem
****

Hamas's principal objective in the negotiations was to get the
blockade of Gaza lifted, something that's been strongly opposed by
Israel because it would allow the free importation of weapons into
Gaza. The cease-fire agreement says that "Opening the crossings
... shall be dealt with after 24 hours from the start of the
ceasefire."

Israel was in a no-win situation in the latest Gaza conflict. In the
end, they signed a peace agreement in the hope that because their air
strikes had been successful in destroying thousands of Gaza rockets
and missiles, there would at least be a period of many months before
Hamas weapons stores could be resupplied. That's what happened after
the 2008 war, but at that time Hosni Mubarak was president of Egypt,
and the crossings into Egypt were more tightly controlled.

Today it's thought that Hamas would be resupplied more quickly.
Israel's air strikes destroyed some 140 tunnels between Gaza and
Egypt, tunnels that were used to smuggle food, fuel, medicines,
building materials, and weapons. But now workers are out rebuilding
the tunnels, although they claim that none of the tunnels they work on
are used for smuggling weapons. Reuters

****
**** As Greece's economy unravels, suicides and attacks on immigrants soar
****

Greece's household income dropped by 15% in the second quarter of
2012, while taxes rose 37%. Unemployment is at 25%, 58% for young
adults. Greece's suicide rate has soared 37% from 2009-2011. The
neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party appears to be gaining strength in Greece as
a "hope and change" party. Golden Dawn is starting to take control of
government services, providing food for the needy, but never for
non-Greeks, even legal residents. There have been repeated incidents
of Golden Dawn violence against immigrants and their markets. Fear is
growing that a replay of 1930s Germany is occurring in Greece.
AnsaMed and Christian Mission and Spiegel (August)

****
**** Pakistan twin Taliban bombings kill 37 Shia Muslim worshipers
****

Pakistan's Taliban terrorists (Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan - TTP)
claimed responsibility for twin bomb attacks on Wednesday targeting
Shia Muslims, killing 37 people and wounding dozens more. According
to a TTP spokesman:

"We carried out the attacks in Rawalpindi and Karachi
because the Shia community is engaged in defiling the
Prophet."

This refers to the commemoration of Muharram, a holy month that goes
back to the Battle of Karbala and the original split between Sunni and
Shia Muslims in 680 AD. In particular, the Shia Muslim prophet Husayn
ibn Ali, the grandson of Mohamed, was killed in battle on October 10,
680.

(Because of differences in the Western and Muslim calendars, the dates
don't always line up. This year, Muharram began in the evening of
Wednesday, November 14, 2012, and ends in the evening of Friday,
December 14, 2012. Husayn ibn Ali was killed in battle on the 10th
day of Muharram.)

Islamabad is on high alert with extensive security on almost every
major intersection for the 8th, 9th and 10th days of Muharram, to
prevent further terrorist attacks. Daily Times (Islamabad) and AFP and Morals and Ethics

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Mohamed ElBaradei,
Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Greece, Golden Dawn, Pakistan,
Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Muharram, Battle of Karbala,
Husayn ibn Ali, Shia Muslims

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*** 24-Nov-12 World View -- China extends its 'Lebensraum' policy to its passports

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China extends its 'Lebensraum' policy to its passports
• Text of Constitutional Declaration by Egypt's President Morsi
• Violent protests return across Egypt after Morsi's power grab
• European Union budget summit collapses in disagreement

****
**** China extends its 'Lebensraum' policy to its passports
****


China's new passport

In a move that's infuriating almost all of China's neighbors, China is
issuing a new passport containing printed maps that claim numerous
disputed territories, many of which have historically belonged to
other countries.

The map claims as sovereign territory vast regions of the South China
Sea, including areas that have historically belonged to Taiwan,
Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. Vietnam and
Philippines have issued formal complaints against the map, pointing
out that it was only recently at the ASEAN meeting that China asked
everyone to avoid doing everything provocative. China has already
stationed military garrisons in the Paracel islands, and the Chinese
have repeatedly indicated that they will use their vast military power
to crush anyone who contests their claims. China frequently says that
they want to live "in harmony" with their neighbors, but what they
mean by that is "Do exactly as we say, and we'll live in harmony;
otherwise, we'll kill you."

Taiwan has protested to China because the passport map depicts China's
sovereignty over two Taiwanese islands that are famous tourist
attractions. Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou urged China not to
"unilaterally damage the status quo of the hard-fought stability
across the Taiwan Strait." Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, the
island’s top China policy-making body, stressed that Taiwan "is an
independent sovereign country."

The map depicts several regions within India as having Chinese
sovereignty. India's government has decided not to protest, and
they're refusing to comment. Instead, they're taking action: Anyone
bringing a Chinese passport to the Indian embassy in Beijing will have
his passport stamp with a "corrected" map that shows the regions as
being part of India.

China is becoming increasingly belligerent in its "Lebensraum" policy
because of two major factors.

The first is that the Chinese people are seething with nationalism,
xenophobia, and a thirst for revenge for wrongs they suffered prior to
and during World War II. This thirst will not be quenched by anything
short of a major war, and everyone knows it.

The second factor is that China's national policy toward land is
nothing short of psychopathic. Several years ago I quoted the Chinese
ambassador to the U.N. as saying, "It's not a matter of how big Taiwan
is, but for China, one INCH of the territory is more valuable than the
LIVES of our people." I've quoted other Chinese officials and seen
numerous stories as well that point to the following conclusion: With
a population of 1.5 billion people, it's part of the Chinese DNA that
the Chinese people are worth no more than interchangeable cogs in a
wheel, and China would willingly sacrifice million or even tens of
millions of people for even a small piece of territory. There's
little doubt in my mind that China is making military plans to occupy
Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and even North America in their quest
for Lebensraum.

In the current situation, the passport maps are a fait
accompli. The Chinese government will never back down and remove
the maps, and they'll provide a constant source of irritation that
will continue to infuriate all of China's neighbors. This is not the
last we've heard of this issue.

A web site reader has suggested that there is a better historical
analogy to China's actions today than Hitler's Lebensraum policy: The
"Chambers of Reunion" policy of France's King Louis XIV in the 1680s.
Louis wanted France to "reunite" with foreign territories, based on
old claims that were no longer valid:

"There is a very clear political lesson about the
Chambers of Reunion that would be relevant if the Chinese keep
pushing the way they are. Indeed one could even say that lesson is
already showing signs of being repeated.

Louis XIV managed to claim a few dozen cities and related lands.
In the process, he alienated pretty much all of his neighbors to
the point that they united against him. Between the wars with
them and the civil unrest in France from trying to pay for the
wars, he wound up bankrupting France and losing everything he had
gained in order to make the claims in the first place.

China has been overreaching, and now the ASEAN nations have
started the process of uniting. They may not like each other all
that much, but none of them are interested in having China annex
everything not nailed down, along with a bunch of what is nailed
down in the process."

As the French like to say, Plus ça change, plus c'est la meme
chose. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Business Insider and The Hindu and Gulf Times

****
**** Text of Constitutional Declaration by Egypt's President Morsi
****

As we reported yesterday (see "23-Nov-12 World View -- Mohamed Morsi
appoints himself 'Pharaoh' of Egypt" ), Egyptians were shocked on
Thursday by the announcement of a decree by Egypt's president
Mohamed Morsi making himself a virtual dictator. Here's
the text of the Constitutional Declaration:

"We have decided the following:

Article I

Reopen the investigations and prosecutions in the cases of the
murder, the attempted murder and the wounding of protesters as
well as the crimes of terror committed against the revolutionaries
by anyone who held a political or executive position under the
former regime, according to the Law of the Protection of the
Revolution and other laws.

Article II:

Previous constitutional declarations, laws, and decrees made by
the president since he took office on 30 June 2012, until the
constitution is approved and a new People’s Assembly [lower house
of parliament] is elected, are final and binding and cannot be
appealed by any way or to any entity. Nor shall they be suspended
or canceled and all lawsuits related to them and brought before
any judicial body against these decisions are annulled.

Article III:

The prosecutor-general is to be appointed from among the members
of the judiciary by the President of the Republic for a period of
four years commencing from the date of office and is subject to
the general conditions of being appointed as a judge and should
not be under the age of 40. This provision applies to the one
currently holding the position with immediate effect.

Article IV:

The text of the article on the formation of the Constituent
Assembly in the 30 March 2011 Constitutional Declaration that
reads, "it shall prepare a draft of a new constitution in a period
of six months from the date it was formed” is to be amended to "it
shall prepare the draft of a new constitution for the country no
later than eight months from the date of its formation."

Article V:

No judicial body can dissolve the Shura Council [upper house of
parliament] or the Constituent Assembly.

Article VI:

The President may take the necessary actions and measures to
protect the country and the goals of the revolution.

Article VII:

This Constitutional Declaration is valid from the date of its
publication in the official gazette."

When you realize what it says, it's actually pretty chilling.
Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Violent protests return across Egypt after Morsi's power grab
****


Protesters burn ransacked contents of Muslim Brotherhood offices in Alexandria

Thursday's stunning power grab by Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi,
making himself a dictator who cannot be challenged in any way, has
triggered a return to massive and violent anti-government protests
typical of those directed against former president Hosni Mubarak and
the army junta last year. Police fired tear gas at thousands of
rock-throwing protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square, chanting demands
that Morsi, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, resign.

In Alexandria, protesters stormed two of the Brotherhood's
Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) offices, ransacking them
and burning the contents. However, there were also pro-Morsi
demonstrators in both Cairo and Alexandria, claiming that
Morsi's presidency should be honored, since he was "democratically
elected."

Morsi's unexpected move has further polarized Egypt, and it may be
that Morsi has overplayed his hand. His decree has managed to reunite
the opposition, and they will vigorously challenge the decree on an
ongoing basis. Reuters and Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** European Union budget summit collapses in disagreement
****

The pattern for European financial negotiations is that there's bitter
fighting and no agreement until the very last moment, and they there's
a compromise that kicks the can down the road and makes things worse.
It had been hoped that the 27 European Union nations, whose leaders
are meeting in Brussels, could agree on a new 7-year budget plan on
Friday. But it's way too early to force a last-minute solution, so
the negotiations collapsed in failure, with a new meeting scheduled
for early next year. In fact, they don't have to reach agreement at
all, which will cause the old budget simply to be rolled over. Some
of the major issues are:

• Net contributor countries (countries that pay more in taxes
  than they receive in benefits), led by Britain, want to sharply cut
  spending, to match austerity policies of most countries. These include
  Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands. Britain's prime
  minister David Cameron said:
  
  
  "More than 200 Brussels staff earn more than I do.
  Brussels continues to exist as if it’s in a parallel
  universe."
  But net beneficiary countries, led by Poland, want the EU to spend
  more money than it does now.
  
• France and Poland want no reduction in the money they
  receive from EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP or
  PAC), which provides agricultural subsidies to member states.
  
• Britain wants no reduction in the "rebate," money that's paid to
  the U.K. in lieu of an agricultural subsidy. The rebate was
  negotiated by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.

Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Lebensraum, South China Sea,
Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, India,
France, Louis XIV, Chambers of Reunion,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Tahrir Square,
Freedom and Justice Party, Alexandria,
European Union, David Cameron, Common Agricultural Policy

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*** 25-Nov-12 World View -- Hamas says it's OK to smuggle weapons into Gaza again

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's lawyers threaten strikes and legal action against Morsi
• Hamas says it's OK to smuggle weapons into Gaza again

****
**** Egypt's lawyers threaten strikes and legal action against Morsi
****


Anti-Morsi demonstrations in Tahrir Square on Friday (Reuters)

Egypt's government, which had begun to appear more stable in recent
months, is now in a state of total chaos, after president Mohamed
Morsi issued his decree on Thursday giving himself full dictatorship
power that can't even by challenged by the courts. On Saturday,
different groups of judges held separate extraordinary meetings and
assemblies, either supporting or condemning Morsi. Hundreds of judges
at the general assembly for the Judges' Club at the High Court
discussed measures to oppose Morsi, and have called for strikes in
Alexandria and other cities. However, the reform judges caucus
"Judges for Egypt" announced their support for Morsi, claiming that
Morsi's opponents want to reinstate the old regime of Hosni Mubarak.
Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Hamas says it's OK to smuggle weapons into Gaza again
****

A spokesman for Hamas is saying that it's untrue that that the
Egyptian-brokered cease-fire agreement signed by Hamas and Israel on
Wednesday forbids the importation of more weapons. He was commenting
on reports that claimed special US army units would be deployed along
the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt to stop the flow of
weapons to Hamas and other armed Palestinian groups.

And indeed, I posted the full text
of the agreement a couple of days ago, and it
says absolutely nothing about forbidding Hamas from importing
more weapons and missiles.

However, an Israeli official pointed out that a White House
statement that followed the agreement does imply military
help from America in blocking weapons smuggling into Gaza.

Here is Wednesday's White House statement:

"Readout of the President’s Call to Prime Minister
Netanyahu

President Obama spoke to Prime Minister Netanyahu today and
reiterated his commitment to Israel’s security.

The President made clear that no country can be expected to
tolerate rocket attacks against civilians.

The President expressed his appreciation for the Prime Minister’s
efforts to work with the new Egyptian government to achieve a
sustainable ceasefire and a more durable solution to this problem.

The President commended the Prime Minister for agreeing to the
Egyptian ceasefire proposal – which the President recommended the
Prime Minster do – while reiterating that Israel maintains the
right to defend itself.

The President said that the United States would use the
opportunity offered by a ceasefire to intensify efforts to help
Israel address its security needs, especially the issue of the
smuggling of weapons and explosives into Gaza.

The President said that he was committed to seeking additional
funding for Iron Dome and other US-Israel missile defense
programs."

The next-to-last paragraph says that America will help prevent weapons
smuggling, without saying how. Does this imply that the president
offered military help in preventing weapons smuggling? If not, then
what kind of help was intended? Jerusalem Post and White House


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Egypt,
Mohamed Morsi, Judges' Club at the High Court

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*** 26-Nov-12 World View -- Egypt's stock market crashes 10% over government turmoil

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's stock market crashes 10% over government turmoil
• Riots and stock market may force Morsi to back down
• Rift between IMF and Eurozone leaders puts Greece's bailout in limbo
• Russia warns that Turkey's Patriot Missile deployment will destabilize region

****
**** Egypt's stock market crashes 10% over government turmoil
****


Egypt's Stock Exchange

Egypt's stock market opened on Sunday for the first time since
president Mohamed Morsi issued his Constitutional Declaration giving
himself dictatorial powers, and the news wasn't good. Stocks fell
almost 10%, and would have fallen farther if it hadn't been stopped by
automatic triggers. Investors pulled out of Egypt's stock market
because of the following concerns:

• Egypt's economy has been plummeting since the Egyptian
  Revolution riots and demonstrations started early in 2011, because of
  a sharp drop in tourism and foreign investment.
  
• Last week, Egypt signed a preliminary agreement with the
  International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $4.8 billion loan.
  
• However, as in the case of Greece, the IMF is requiring Greece to
  reduce its budget deficits, by reducing energy subsidies to the
  people, and by raising taxes. Both of these moves are going to be
  very unpopular, and will generate further turmoil, risking the same
  kind of vicious deflationary cycle as in Greece.

With riots returning to the streets, there's no chance of increasing
tourism again. On Sunday, investors decided to flee for something
more safe. Gulf News (Dubai)

****
**** Riots and stock market may force Morsi to back down
****

A 15-year-old protester was killed and 40 people were injured on Sunday in a
clash with police when protesters stored a Muslim Brotherhood
headquarters office in northern Egypt. Additional riots and
demonstrations are being planned for Monday and Tuesday. These events
have forced Morsi to declare that the decree he issued is only
"temporary," and that he would meet on Monday with the Judges group
that is opposing him. However, many Muslim Brotherhood members
support Morsi and his decree, leaving the possibility of conflicts
between Salafis and Islamists on the one hand versus secularists and
liberals on the other hand. It was just a mere five days ago that
everyone considered Morsi to be a very clever, shrewd politician,
after he brought about the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in
Gaza. He picked that particular time to issue his Constitutional
Decree, thinking that he would be politically invincible. But it
turns out he was just being too clever by half, and he's lost a lot of
the respect he gained earlier in the week. National Post (Canada)

****
**** Rift between IMF and Eurozone leaders puts Greece's bailout in limbo
****

The rift that exploded into the open last week
between Christine Lagarde, chief of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), who wants to force Greece to meet its austerity
commitments, and Eurozone leaders, who are considering giving Greece a
two-year postponement, is delaying agreement on a new bailout payment
for Greece. Greece now needs an immediate loan of 44 billion euros
(which is a hell of a lot of money) just to meet current obligations
through December 21. This should have been settled weeks ago, but it
keeps getting postponed. There's a new meeting of the Eurogroup
finance ministers on Monday, and Greece is hoping that a favorable
decision will finally be reached at that meeting. Southeast Europe Times and Kathimerini

****
**** Russia warns that Turkey's Patriot Missile deployment will destabilize region
****

Turkey's request to Nato for Patriot missile systems, to be deployed
on the border with Syria, as we reported
last week, is arousing suspicions in Syria, Iran and
Russia that the systems would be deployed as a precursor to the
implementation of a no-fly zone over Syria, similar to the no-fly zone
that Nato implemented last year over Libya. Russia's Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov referenced a statement attributed to Russian playwright
Anton Chekhov: If there is a gun hanging above the fireplace in the
first act of a play, then the gun must be fired in the third act, or
it shouldn't have been there in the first place. According to Lavrov:

"Our concerns are rooted in the 'Chekhov’s gun
syndrome’ that says that if a gun appears on stage in the first
act it will definitely fire by the third. ... Any provocation may
trigger a very serious armed conflict. We want to avoid
this."

Nato has indicated that they are considering Turkey's request, but the
final decision will have to come from one of the three nations that
actually have Patriot missile systems -- Germany, the Netherlands, and
the U.S. Russia Today

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's Stock Exchange,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Christine Lagarde,
Muslim Brotherhood, Israel, Hamas, Gaza,
Greece, eurozone, Eurogroup,
Russia, Turkey, Sergei Lavrov, Anton Chekhov,
Patriot missiles, Nato

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*** 27-Nov-12 World View -- Egypt's 'Hope and Change' candidate Morsi has forgotten all his promises

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Another farcical climate change conference begins in Doha, Qatar
• Large Tuesday protests planned after Egypt's Morsi refuses to rescind decree
• Egypt's 'Hope and Change' candidate Morsi has forgotten all his promises

****
**** Another farcical climate change conference begins in Doha, Qatar
****


Climate change conference in Doha, Qatar (AP)

I like to recount the reason why I know that even climate change
activists don't believe half the crap they're saying about climate
change. I believe everything that I write about on my web site, and
I've made enormous changes in my life in the last ten years as a
result. So I know what it's like to really believe what you're
saying. And so it's perfectly obvious to me that climate change
activists don't believe anything they're saying. They drive expensive
cars instead of taking the subway. They live in posh residences that
burn as much power as a small town, and they brag because they replace
a couple of light bulbs with fluorescents. They go to expensive
meetings rather than using videoconferencing. Al Gore, as I recall,
excuses his massive energy waste by claiming that he pays to have some
trees planted in central America. So I can tell right off that all of
these people are full of crap.

It's worthwhile summarizing the climate change situation:

• There has been no global warming for ten years. The Arctic
  has gotten warmer, but the Antarctic has gotten colder.
  
• There is no currently known technology for reducing carbon
  emissions. If there were, then it would marketed, and the company
  would make billions.
  
• By far, the biggest emitter of carbon is China, and they will
  never agree to reduce their emissions.
  
• Worrying about carbon emissions today is like someone worrying
  a century ago that the world would soon be covered with horse crap.
  That car came along when it was needed, and so will a solution
  to the carbon emission issue.
  
• In particular, we're on the verge of a great deal of "intelligent
  computer" technology, along with new nanotechnology that will combine
  by the 2020s to perform all kinds of environmental cleanups.
  
• Bankers are pushing climate change because it will put huge
  amounts of money into their pockets. Politicians are pushing climate
  change because they'll get a large chunk of that money. (See
  "3-Nov-12 World View -- New charges put Barclays Bank
  at center of climate change financial scam" )

Now there's a new climate change conference in Doha, Qatar, the city
with the largest carbon emissions per capita in the world. Hundreds
of climate change activists will go for a week to sit by the swimming
pool, except when they're in heavily air-conditioned rooms whining
about how unfair everyone is to them. At least they can't whine about
George Bush this year. The conference will be heavily covered by the
loony left at the New York Times, NBC news and other mainstream media,
and we'll have to listen to repeated crap about the world being in
danger if we don't give the banksters billions more dollars to use to
award themselves million dollar bonuses. It's another week of farce.
Spiegel and Telegraph (London)

****
**** Large Tuesday protests planned after Egypt's Morsi refuses to rescind decree
****

Egypt's opposition parties and groups are calling for mass rallies and
"million-man marches" on Tuesday, to protest last Thursday's
Constitutional Decree by president Mohamed Morsi, giving himself
dictatorial powers. Morsi met with a Judges group on Monday, raising
hopes that he would rescind the decree, but he refused to change it in
any way. Reportedly, he promised to use his dictatorial powers only
for "sovereign matters," leaving lesser matters to be challenged by
the courts, but he will be the one to decide what is or isn't a
"sovereign matter," so nothing has changed. According to analysts,
Morsi's intent is to protect the Constituent Assembly, which is
comprised mostly of members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi himself
was a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood prior to taking office as
president, and so his intent is evidently to have the Muslim
Brotherhood control the writing of the new constitution. This is
expected to take six months, after which Morsi says he'll give up his
dictatorial powers. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Egypt's 'Hope and Change' candidate Morsi has forgotten all his promises
****

Many Egyptians voted for Mohamed Morsi as the first democratically
elected president in Egypt for 5,000 years because they saw him as a
"hope and change" candidate who would reverse the direction of the
country after the dictatorship of deposed ruler Hosni Mubarak, and
would bring order out of the chaos in the streets and in the economy.
But Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood have made one promise after
another that they're simply ignoring:

• At first, the MB said they would only present candidates for
  one-third of the seats of the parliament, but they broke that promise
  and fought for every one.
  
• They said that they would not field a candidate for president,
  but they put forth Mohamed Morsi, who won.
  
• Morsi had promised to appoint a Copt and a woman as vice
  presidents, but he ignored those promises.
  
• He promised to follow the laws, but he ignored the orders
  of the independent judiciary.
  
• Then last Thursday, he issued his Constitutional Decree
  giving himself dictatorial powers.
  
• On Monday, he refused to change or rescind decree, despite furious
  opposition.

Muslim Brotherhood members are giving Morsi their full support, and
they are a large group, but not a majority. The secularists and the
liberals are opposed to Morsi's decree, but so are the Salafists who,
while they're Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood, are not willing
to cede so much power to the MB. Morsi is hoping that after 18 months
of riots and demonstrations, Egyptians are tired of protesting, and
will accept anything he says. He may be right, but the first test
will occur with the "million man marches" on Tuesday. Jerusalem Post



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, climate change, Doha, Qatar,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood

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*** 28-Nov-12 World View -- Europe's new charade in Greece's bailout announcement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Europe declares victory with another hopeless bailout payment for Greece
• After Greece's deal, Ireland looks for a better deal
• Huge anti-Morsi demonstrations fill Cairo's Tahrir Square
• Hamas chief Khalid Mashaal says he supports Thursday's Palestine U.N. bid

****
**** Europe declares victory with another hopeless bailout payment for Greece
****


IMF chief Christine Lagarde at Tuesday 2 am press conference

Over a year ago, I proposed the "Kick the Can Theory," which says that
if you want to predict what Europe is going to do, just assume that
they'll the bare minimum possible to get through the current crisis,
but leave the basic underlying problems unchanged, so that the next
crisis will be much worse -- in other words, "kick the can down the
road," and lie about it.

Around 2 am, Tuesday morning, after a 12 hour meeting, the Europeans
declared victory, giving Greece a new 44 billion euro bailout loan,
enough to meet commitments through the end of the year. According to
Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras:

"A very grey, a very dark period for Greece officially
ended yesterday and it has ended for good. We Greeks were made for
tough times, and when the going gets tough, it brings out the best
in us."

And here's the statement of Jean-Claude Jüncker, chairman of
the Eurogroup finance ministers:

"This is not just about money. This is the promise of
a better future for the Greek people and for the euro area as a
whole, a break from the era of missed targets and loose
implementation towards a new paradigm of steadfast reform
momentum, declining debt ratios and a return to
growth."

Wow! I'm surprised he could mouth all those long words at 2 am. As
usual, I have to remind readers that when reporters caught Jüncker in
a series of lies in May, 2011, in the same Greek debt crisis, he
replied, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie." Well, this
situation is pretty serious, so we can assume that Jüncker has to lie.

Actually, this "new paradigm" is no different than the previous
temporary bailouts. It depends on two things:

• During the next month, Greece will have to initiate a "bond
  buyback" program, where they'll ask private investors holding Greek
  bonds to sell them back to Greece at 28 to 30 cents on the dollar -- a
  70%-72% haircut. Recall that we went through this a year ago and it
  was a nightmare, with investors taking a 74% haircut, where most of
  the investors were banks that governments could force to go along. A
  lot of private investors didn't go along with the plan and refused to
  sell at a 74% loss, and now we're going through it again.
  
• The entire plan assumes that Greece will soon emerge from
  recession and start growing rapidly. Politicians have been assuming
  for five years that the financial crisis would end "next quarter," and
  that we'd return to the credit and real estate bubble of the mid-2000s
  decade. That is literally impossible. The credit and real estate
  bubbles still have far to go before they'll be fully deflated. Growth
  will not begin again until well into the 2020s.

The interesting character in all this is Christine Lagarde, head of
the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Last week she had a raucous
open confrontation with Jean-Claude Jüncker, when she refused to go
along with his plan to allow Greece two extra years to meet their
austerity commitments. At first I thought that Lagarde had completely
caved in during last night's negotiations, but apparently she did only
partially. The IMF will not release its share of the 40 billion euro
bailout loan until the bond buyback plan is completed.

And sooooooooooooooo, Dear Reader, if you've waded through all the
above, then you know that even with the bailout payment, Greece will
be in more serious trouble before long, but in fact the bailout
payment itself is not even firm.

As one analyst put it:

"The latest Greek rescue deal will buy the country a
bit more time. But unless the economy stages a miraculous
recovery, the rest of the euro-zone will soon be forced to make
much more difficult decisions over just how far it is prepared to
go to keep Greece inside the euro."

Kathimerini and EurActiv and WSJ

****
**** After Greece's deal, Ireland looks for a better deal
****

Now that Greece has been given extra time to meet its austerity
commitments, as well as other sweeteners, Ireland is thinking about
asking for a better deal as well. Part of the package announced last
night was that the interest on Greece's loans from the European
Central Bank (ECB) will be reduced and partially deferred. It looks
like Ireland's Minister for Finance Michael Noonan will be asking for
similar treatment. Irish Times

****
**** Huge anti-Morsi demonstrations fill Cairo's Tahrir Square
****

A major political confrontation is growing in Egypt, as over 100,000
defiant protests filled Cairo's Tahrir Square on Tuesday, demanding
the cancellation of president Mohamed Morsi's constitution decree last
Thursday, when he gave himself dictatorial powers. Thousands also
took to the streets in mostly peaceful rallies in major cities across
Egypt. Morsi still has strong support among members of the Muslim
Brotherhood, of which he was a former leader. The Brotherhood had
originally planned to hold counter-demonstrations on Tuesday, but
canceled them to avoid violence with with anti-Morsi protesters.
Morsi has stated that he will not yield to demands to cancel the
decree. There are unconfirmed reports that Morsi is considering
measures that might be taken to appease the protesters, but none has
been announced so far. Al-Ahram

****
**** Hamas chief Khalid Mashaal says he supports Thursday's Palestine U.N. bid
****

Hamas chief Khalid Mashaal has notified Palestinian Authority
president Mahmoud Abbas that he intends to support the latter's bid
for recognition of a Palestinian state by the United Nations General
Assembly, to be presented later this week. This is a complete
turnaround, as Hamas has previously strongly opposed Abbas's plan,
because the recognition of a Palestinian state could imply officially
giving up the "right of return" for Palestinians to the homes in
Israel that their ancestors owned prior to the 1948 partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Ma'an News Agency (Bethlehem)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Christine Lagarde, IMF,
Kick the Can Theory, Antonis Samaras, Jean-Claude Jüncker,
Ireland, Michael Noonan, Egypt, Tahrir Square,
Cairo, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Hamas, Khalid Mashaal, Mahmoud Abbas,
Palestinian Authority

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*** 29-Nov-12 World View -- Israel tries desperately to dilute Abbas' bid for state of Palestine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel tries desperately to dilute Abbas' bid for state of Palestine
• Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood seeks to consolidate power on Thursday
• Iran tells its people to marry younger and have babies

****
**** Israel tries desperately to dilute Abbas' bid for state of Palestine
****


Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas has arrived in New York
City, and on Thursday he's expected to win a vote in the United
Nations General Assembly on a resolution that will create a state of
Palestine, giving it non-member-state observer status. Israeli
officials had been hoping to build a block of 40-50 "quality" nations
would either abstain or vote against the resolution, but that is now
unlikely. The US, Canada, Germany and the Czech Republic are expected
to oppose the resolution, but France, Spain, Denmark, Ireland,
Switzerland and numerous non-"Western" countries will support the
resolution. At the last minute, Israeli officials are trying to
dilute the vote by asking countries that vote in favor of the
resolution to "submit an explanation with their vote [saying] it is a
political statement confined to the UN system, and does not constitute
true recognition of an actual state in Palestine."

As we reported
yesterday, Hamas
has reversed itself, and is now in favor of the U.N. resolution.
Once the resolution passes, Hamas will be pressuring Abbas's
government to use his new status as the head of the state of Palestine
to bring war crimes charges against Israel in the International
Criminal Court. Israel indicates that, if that happens, then it will
bring its own charges against Palestine. The West is hoping that once
the vote is over, Palestine will resume the "peace process" talks with
Israel. Jerusalem Post and LA Times

****
**** Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood seeks to consolidate power on Thursday
****

In a move that's certain to spark deep outrage, Egypt's Muslim
Brotherhood dominated Constituent Assembly announced that they are
rushing the completion of the country's new constitution, and will put
it to a vote on Thursday morning. The announcement shocked everyone,
because they were scheduled to work on it until February 12, 2013.
Apparently the change was made for completely cynical reasons.
Furious judges in Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court have announced
that they "won't be blackmailed" by president Mohamed Morsi's recent
decree giving himself dictatorial powers, and reportedly they were
planning to rule on the legality of Morsi's decree as well as the
actions of the Constituent Assembly as early as Sunday. So the
writing of the constitution was sped up to get it completed before the
court could rule. Once it passes the Constituent Assembly vote, it
will go to a nationwide referendum in a week or two. The new
constitution is expected to be strongly Islamist. Protesters have
continued to fill the streets, and the new constitution, when it
becomes public on Thursday, is liable to be extremely inflammatory.
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and LA Times

****
**** Iran tells its people to marry younger and have babies
****

Sunni Muslim countries have had explosive birth rates in the last 60
years. I attribute this to some kind of community decision that,
after the destruction of the Ottoman Empire in 1921, Sunni Muslims
should have as many babies as possible, in order to win the next war.
Iran, a Shia Muslim country, has not been a part of this "community
decision," and its birth rate has been more typical of the West. But
now Iranian officials are encouraging people to marry younger and have
more babies. The authorities have scrapped all population-control
programs that had been in place for decades, and even the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Khamenei apologized to the people for having
instructed them in the past to bear fewer children. Radio Zamaneh

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Palestinian Authority,
Mahmoud Abbas, United Nations General Assembly, Palestine,
International Criminal Court, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood,
Supreme Constitutional Court, Constituent Assembly,
Mohamed Morsi, Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei

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*** 30-Nov-12 World View -- United Nations creates the nation 'Palestine'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• United Nations creates the nation 'Palestine'
• Mahmoud Abbas demands an end to the Israeli occupation
• Israeli ambassador says that Palestinians don't want peace
• China to step up military confrontations in South China Sea
• Philippine lawmakers call China's new passports 'laughable'

****
**** United Nations creates the nation 'Palestine'
****


Palestinians celebrate in the West Bank city of Ramallah (BBC)

Schools and shops closed early across the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip, as Palestinians partied all day to celebrate the creation of
the state of Palestine by the United Nations General Assembly, on the
day of the 65th anniversary of the creation of the state of Israel.
However, the vote was just symbolic in the sense that the state of
Palestine has no defined borders, and is a "non-member observer state"
of the United Nations, not a full-fledged member. When the question
came to a vote of the 193 U.N. member states, 138 voted in favor, 41
abstained, and 9 voted against, including the United States and
Israel. According to analysts, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is
now a crossroads with two distinct and mutually exclusive choices:

• Return to negotiations with Israel on the "peace
  process."
  
• Take advantage of the upgraded status of Palestine to go to the
  International Criminal Court and bring war crimes charges against
  Israel.

Neither of these choices seems particularly good. Negotiating is a
waste of time, as there never will be a "peace process," and going to
the ICC will further polarize the Mideast and invite retribution.
BBC

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas demands an end to the Israeli occupation
****

Here are some excerpts of the speech of Palestinian president
Mahmoud Abbas to the United Nations on Thursday:

"The Israeli aggression against our people in the Gaza
Strip has confirmed once again the urgent and pressing need to end
the Israeli occupation and for our people to gain their freedom
and independence. This aggression also confirms the Israeli
Government’s adherence to the policy of occupation, brute force
and war, which in turn obliges the international community to
shoulder its responsibilities towards the Palestinian people and
towards peace. ...

I say with great pain and sorrow... there was certainly no one in
the world that required that tens of Palestinian children lose
their lives in order to reaffirm the above-mentioned facts. There
was no need for thousands of deadly raids and tons of explosives
for the world to be reminded that there is an occupation that must
come to an end and that there are a people that must be
liberated. And, there was no need for a new, devastating war in
order for us to be aware of the absence of peace. ...

The Palestinian people, who miraculously recovered from the ashes
of Al-Nakba ["the catastrophe"] of 1948, which was intended to
extinguish their being and to expel them in order to uproot and
erase their presence, which was rooted in the depths of their land
and depths of history. In those dark days, when hundreds of
thousands of Palestinians were torn from their homes and displaced
within and outside of their homeland, thrown from their beautiful,
embracing, prosperous country to refugee camps in one of the most
dreadful campaigns of ethnic cleansing and dispossession in modern
history. In those dark days, our people had looked to the United
Nations as a beacon of hope and appealed for ending the injustice
and for achieving justice and peace, the realization of our
rights, and our people still believe in this and continue to wait.

This is why we are here today."

Times of Israel

****
**** Israeli ambassador says that Palestinians don't want peace
****

Here are some excerpts of the speech of Israeli ambassador to the
United Nations Ron Prosor on Thursday:

"Today I stand before you tall and proud because I
represent the world's one and only Jewish state. A state built in
the Jewish people's ancient homeland, with its eternal capital
Jerusalem as its beating heart.

We are a nation with deep roots in the past and bright hopes for
the future. We are a nation that values idealism, but acts with
pragmatism. Israel is a nation that never hesitates to defend
itself, but will always extend its hand for peace. ...

Israel has always extended its hand for peace and will always
extend its hand for peace. When we faced an Arab leader who wanted
peace, we made peace. That was the case with Egypt. That was the
case with Jordan.

Time and again, we have sought peace with the Palestinians. Time
and again, we have been met by rejection of our offers, denial of
our rights, and terrorism targeting our citizens.

President Abbas described today’s proceedings as “historic”. But
the only thing historic about his speech is how much it ignored
history.

The truth is that 65 years ago today, the United Nations voted to
partition the British Mandate into two states: a Jewish state, and
an Arab state. Two states for two peoples.

Israel accepted this plan. The Palestinians and Arab nations
around us rejected it and launched a war of annihilation to throw
the "Jews into the sea".

The truth is that from 1948 until 1967, the West Bank was ruled by
Jordan, and Gaza was ruled by Egypt. The Arab states did not lift
a finger to create a Palestinian state. Instead they sought
Israel’s destruction, and were joined by newly formed Palestinian
terrorist organizations. ...

In fact, President Abbas, I did not hear you use the phrase "two
states for two peoples" this afternoon. In fact, I have never
heard you say the phrase "two states for two peoples". Because the
Palestinian leadership has never recognized that Israel is the
nation-state of the Jewish people.

They have never been willing to accept what this very body
recognized 65 years ago. Israel is the Jewish state.

In fact, today you asked the world to recognize a Palestinian
state, but you still refuse to recognize the Jewish
state."

VOA

****
**** China to step up military confrontations in South China Sea
****

China will be moving additional warships into the South China Sea and
will implement new military procedures, beginning in 2013. Under the
new procedures, China's police will board and take control of any ship
in what China considers to be its sovereign "territorial waters." As
part of China's "Lebensraum" policy, China is demanding sovereignty
over the entire South China Sea, including areas that historically
have belonged to Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and
Vietnam. China's policy has become increasingly belligerent,
especially since 2009, as China itself has become increasingly
nationalistic and xenophobic. According to the Chinese, the
following will be illegal in the South China Sea:

• Entering Hainan province's territorial waters without
  permission. Hainan province itself has been extended to
  include much of the South China Sea.
  
• Damaging coastal defense facilities.
  
• Engaging in publicity that threatens national security.

The last one is a bit of a puzzle, at least to me, but I assume
it refers to news gathering operations, such as those that
have been conducted in the past by the BBC and al-Jazeera,
using vessels to report on China's warships and military
buildup in the South China Sea.

It's unclear how this new policy applies to commercial shipping
through the South China Sea. The United States has taken the position
that commercial shipping must continue completely unhindered, and the
U.S. also occasionally sends its aircraft carrier, the USS George
Washington, into the South China Sea. Obviously if China decides to
confront American commercial or military ships, then the U.S. will be
forced to respond. Ironically, China's increased belligerence and
military buildup have caused many countries in the region to unite
against China, and to wish to become full-fledged American allies.
China Daily

****
**** Philippine lawmakers call China's new passports 'laughable'
****

As we reported last week ( "24-Nov-12 World View -- China extends its 'Lebensraum' policy to its passports"
), China is issuing new passports
containing maps that designate the entire South China Sea,
as well as parts of India's territory, as being part of China.
This is infuriating China's neighbors. India is reacting by
stamping the passport with a visa stamp that contains a "corrected"
map. Vietnam and the Philippines are refusing to stamp anything
into the passports, and instead are issuing visas on separate
pieces of paper. According a Philippines lawmaker:

"Apart from being contemptible, China’s latest move is
also laughable. No country or international legal platform
recognizes the nine-dash line map."

The "nine-dash line map" is China's map that identifies the entire
South China Sea as sovereign Chinese territory. GMA Network (Philippines) and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, West Bank,
Palestinian Authority, United Nations General Assembly,
Israel, Ron Prosor,
China, South China Sea, Lebensraum, Philippines, Vietnam,
Hainan province

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In fact, President Abbas, I did not hear you use the phrase "two
states for two peoples" this afternoon. In fact, I have never
heard you say the phrase "two states for two peoples". Because the
Palestinian leadership has never recognized that Israel is the
nation-state of the Jewish people.

They have never been willing to accept what this very body
recognized 65 years ago. Israel is the Jewish state.

In fact, today you asked the world to recognize a Palestinian
state, but you still refuse to recognize the Jewish
state.

Lies, of course. The first phrases of what Abbas actually said (of course, somehow omitted from your 'excerpting'. Wonder how that happened...):

"We did not come here seeking to delegitimize a state established years ago, and that is Israel. Rather we came to affirm the legitimacy of a state that must now achieve its independence and that is Palestine"

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Lies, of course. The first phrases of what Abbas actually said (of course, somehow omitted from your 'excerpting'. Wonder how that happened...):

If you're going to accuse me of something nefarious, at least take two
seconds to figure out what's actually going on, before spouting total
nonsense.

Abbas has negotiated with Israel for years, and thus has recognized
the state of Israel for years (though Hamas has not). But the issue
is recognizing Israel as a "Jewish state." This has become a hot
button issue because if Israel is a "Jewish state," then it would have
implications for Palestinians currently living in Israel, and would
also have implications for Palestinian refugees demanding the "right
of return."

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

... the issue
is recognizing Israel as a "Jewish state."...

Got it. So Israel's government isn't opposed to the Palestinians having a state -- they just want to make damn sure no Palestinians end up having citizens' right in their exclusive 2nd millennial-BC clubhouse. But they talk as if opposition to apartheid (which is, after all, the textbook term fitting that definition) means opposition to Israel-the-state.

Which makes sense, I guess, if apartheid is a key central tenet of whatever Israeli's government envision Israel to be. I guess that's what "xx-ish state" means, comes to it?

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Got it. So Israel's government isn't opposed to the Palestinians having a state -- they just want to make damn sure no Palestinians end up having citizens' right in their exclusive 2nd millennial-BC clubhouse. But they talk as if opposition to apartheid (which is, after all, the textbook term fitting that definition) means opposition to Israel-the-state.

Which makes sense, I guess, if apartheid is a key central tenet of whatever Israeli's government envision Israel to be. I guess that's what "xx-ish state" means, comes to it?

My personal view is that all this stuff about Jewish state and
Palestinian state is political posturing. As I've said many times,
Arabs and Jews will be at war, re-fighting the genocidal war that
followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine, creating the state of
Israel. All this so-called "negotiating" is just foreplay, totally
meaningless. Once enough Jews and Arabs have been tortured, massacred
and exterminated, then and only then will the survivors will come up
with a "solution" to the problem.

*** 1-Dec-12 World View -- Israel approves 3,000 new settlement homes on the West Bank

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of Egyptians protest the 'Brotherhood Constitution'
• Israel approves 3,000 new settlement homes on the West Bank
• Bankster types take over the computer malware detection industry

****
**** Thousands of Egyptians protest the 'Brotherhood Constitution'
****


Anti-Morsi banner in Tahrir Square on Friday (al-Jazeera)

Thousands of Egyptians streamed into Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, on
Friday to protest actions by the government of president Mohamed
Morsi. For several days, there have been protests over Morsi's
constitution decree, ten days ago, giving himself dictatorial powers.
But now there's a second reason: Egypt's Constituent Assembly,
consisting mostly of members of the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Morsi
himself is a former leader, has rushed a draft of the new Egyptian
constitution to completion. The new draft constitution, called by
protesters the "Brotherhood Constitution," follows Islamic Sharia law
and contains some clauses restricting freedom of speech. Morsi claims
that once the new constitution is approved by a national referendum in
the next couple of weeks, he'll rescind his decree giving himself
dictatorial powers. LA Times and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Israel approves 3,000 new settlement homes on the West Bank
****

The Palestinian Authority is describing as a "slap in the face of the
world" a decision by Israel to approve the constitution of 3,000 new
homes in Jewish settlements in the West Bank. The announcement comes
a day after the United Nations General Assembly overwhelming voted in
favor of a resolution, strongly opposed by Israel and the United
States, to recognize the state of Palestine as a non-member observer
state. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was extremely
critical of Israel's decision, but also said that he will not file
complaints accusing Israel of war crimes and crimes against humanity
in the International Criminal Court (ICC). "We now have the right to
appeal the ICC, but we are not going to do it now and will not do it
except in the case of Israeli aggression," he said. Jerusalem Post and AP

****
**** Bankster types take over the computer malware detection industry
****

When your home computer or your corporate network gets hacked, and
someone steals your bank account information, it's often because of a
"zero day bug," meaning an exposure that's been in the Windows
software or other software for years. There are research groups that
attempt to find and identify these bugs. They then notify Microsoft
or other software vendor, and the software vendor issues a patch for
the software that fixes the exposure. Or at least that's the way it
used to work. Now these research groups are keeping the information
private, and then selling it to corporate spies, foreign governments,
or criminal enterprises. Companies like Vupen or NSS Labs, who are in
this business, may be small fry compared to the banksters who caused
the financial crisis by knowingly creating and selling trillions of
dollars in synthetic subprime mortgage backed securities, but they're
in the same category. Dark Reading



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Israel, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas,
International Criminal Court, Vupen, NSS Labs

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*** 2-Dec-12 World View -- China's neighbors express alarm over militant new South China Sea policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's neighbors express alarm over militant new South China Sea policy
• China conducts drills to prepare for new military policy in South China Sea
• Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians rally to support Morsi and Sharia law
• Egypt's Morsi calls for constitutional referendum on December 15
• Kim Kardashian starts a riot in Bahrain

****
**** China's neighbors express alarm over militant new South China Sea policy
****


China's '9-dash map' stamped into its passports (Reuters)

China's neighbors are expressing alarm over China's belligerent new
actions in claiming sovereignty over the entire South China Sea,
including regions that historically belonged to other countries,
including Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
China's new passports contain the "nine-dash map," a map that China
uses to designate its claims with nine dashes circling the entire
South China Sea. As I reported reported
two days ago, China is now sending warships to the South
China Sea and is preparing to board and take control of any ship in
what china considers to be its sovereign "territorial waters."
The Philippines, which refuses to recognize the new Chinese passport,
is saying that China's new military policy is a violation of
international laws. One senior Philippine naval officer has a different
explanation:

"Those warnings [by China] are not directed at
us. They might be trying to find out how far the United States
would react because this could affect freedom of navigation in one
of the busiest sea lanes in the world. If this is an official
policy announced by Beijing, this is very serious and a cause of
concern."

This may be just wishful thinking on the part of the Philippine
official. It was just eight months ago that the Philippines were
forced to back down in a naval confrontation with China over the
Scarborough Shoal, some islands that are clearly the Philippines'
sovereign territory. (See "8-Jul-12 World View -- China escalates military buildup in South China Sea"
)

Indonesia does not have a claim to the region, but it has been trying
to act as a mediator in setting a Code of Conduct for China and its
neighbors. The Indonesian government is now saying that unilateral
actions by the China are exacerbating territorial disputes. According
to Indonesia's Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa:

"We perceive the Chinese move as disingenuous, like
testing the water, to see its neighbors’ reactions.

They can issue [the nine-dash map] but it will have no
effect.

Indonesia’s focus will not be shifted [by any unilateral move]. We
should concentrate on the completion of the Code of Conduct. I
hope that we, ASEAN and China can focus on dialogue."

Reuters and Jakarta Post

****
**** China conducts drills to prepare for new military policy in South China Sea
****

A fleet of China's naval warships on Saturday morning carried out
drills in the South China Sea to prepare for the new military policy
of boarding and seizing ships of other nations that enter what China
claims are its "territorial waters." China has not clarified the
interpretation of its new military policy, and whether they will board
and seize ordinary commercial ships passing through the South China
Sea, which is one of the busiest commercial routes in the
world. China Daily and Zee News (India)

****
**** Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians rally to support Morsi and Sharia law
****

After several days of protests in opposition to Egypt's president
Mohamed Morsi and his recent constitutional decree granting himself
dictatorial powers, pro-Morsi demonstrators finally came out to
protest. More than three hundred thousand demonstrators took to the
streets on Saturday to support Morsi and his constitutional decree,
and to demand the implementation of Islamic Sharia law in the new
constitution. One demonstrator, a Salafist, said that he was calling
for the implementation of "God's Law":

"It's like a refrigerator that comes with its manual;
when God created us, our manual was the Quran and the Sunna [the
prophet Mohamed's teachings], and they are what we must
follow.

He added that Morsi's recent decisions are an example of the
enforcement's of God's law.

The protests began near Cairo University. In the evening, hundreds of
Islamists marched onto the High Constitutional Court (HCC), which is
expected to issue its verdict on the constitutionality of the
Constituent Assembly, which wrote the new constitution. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Egypt's Morsi calls for constitutional referendum on December 15
****

Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi announced on nationwide television on
Saturday that he's calling for a referendum on December 15 to ratify
the draft constitution that was just put forward by the Constituent
Assembly. Popular opinion is split between Islamists and Salafists
who favor ratification on the one hand, and the liberal and secularist
opposition who oppose ratification. Morsi has promised to rescind the
constitutional decree giving himself dictatorial powers if the draft
constitution is ratified. For this reason, some analysts are
predicting that many in the opposition will vote to ratify the
constitution, rather than continue under a government with Morsi as
dictator. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Kim Kardashian starts a riot in Bahrain
****


Kim Kardashian poses with a young Bahraini boy in Riffa, Bahrain, on Saturday (AP)

Thousands of Kim Kardashian fans, who had paid up to 500 Bahraini
dinars ($1,360) a ticket, broke into hysterical screams as the
32-year-old celebrity launched the Millions of Milkshakes franchise
inside a mall in Riffa, the second largest city in Bahrain. However,
about 100 Sunni Salafists demonstrated with banners against the visit,
saying she was "an actress with an extremely bad reputation."
Kardashian made glowing remarks about Bahrain, calling it "the
prettiest place on earth." Reuters and Daily Mail (London)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Nine-dash map, Philippines, South China Sea,
Scarborough Shoal, Indonesia, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi,
Islamic sharia Law, Bahrain, Kim Kardashian

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*** 3-Dec-12 World View -- Israel withholds tax revenues from the Palestinian Authority

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• High police support for Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party
• Failure of America's global anti-nuclear policies
• Israel withholds tax revenues from the Palestinian Authority

****
**** High police support for Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party
****


The Golden Dawn symbol appears on a flag held by a party member (Reuters)

Several months ago, a Greek newspaper reported that polling stations
in Athens that had a high percentage of police officers voting tended
to have extremely high votes for the far-right Golden Dawn party.
("Far right" has a different meaning in Europe than in America.)
Al-Jazeera did a follow-up analysis and largely confirmed the claim
that Athens policemen were voting disproportionately for Golden Dawn.
This finding supports the claim that Athens police are doing nothing
to stop Golden Dawn's neo-Nazi violence tactics against immigrants,
including legal immigrants. To Vima (Athens) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Failure of America's global anti-nuclear policies
****

For decades, America has pursued global antinuclear policies. No
policy in American history -- not the Monroe Doctrine, not liberal
internationalism, not containment -- has had more widespread,
bipartisan support in domestic politics, or more energetic backing.
Nonetheless, the policy failed, and today nine countries (India,
Pakistan, China, North Korea, Israel, France, Britain, U.S., Russia)
have nuclear weapons. Eight have modernized their nuclear arsenals,
with weapons of longer range and with a diverse menu of delivery means
and warhead types. The one exception is the United States. Foreign Policy Research Institute (PDF)

****
**** Israel withholds tax revenues from the Palestinian Authority
****


Jewish settlements in West Bank near Jerusalem (Reuters)

Israel is receiving worldwide criticism after announcing on Sunday
that it would withhold more than $100 million in tax revenue from
the Palestinian Authority (PA). This is PA money that Israel
collects at border crossings on behalf of the PA and normally pays
to the PA each month.

Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Sunday said that the move is a
response to the successful application of the Palestinian Authority to
the United Nations General Assembly to create a state of Palestine
with non-member observer status. According to Steinitz:

"I have no intention of transferring the taxes due to
the Palestinian Authority this month. They will be used to pay the
Palestinian Authority's debts to the Israel Electric Corporation.

[The United Nations resolution] is a Palestinian provocation and
an attempt to advance their state without recognizing Israel. We
said this wouldn’t pass quietly."

The Palestinians owe Israel's electric company over $200 million, and
the company has threatened to cut off the PA's electricity.

Sunday's action comes a day after Israel announced plans to build 3,000
new settlement homes in the West Bank. Israel's prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday:

"The response to the attack on Zionism and the State
of Israel must reinforce the colony plan in all areas the
government decides.

Today we are building and we will continue to build in Jerusalem
and in all areas that are on the map of the strategic interests of
the State of Israel."

The new proposed settlements are in the "E-1 area," and would be a
five-square-mile project that would largely cut off the West Bank from
Arab neighborhoods, substantially complicating the "peace process"
talks, which have been dead for years anyway. AFP and LA Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Golden Dawn, Anti-nuclear policies,
Israel, Palestinian Authority, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Yuval Steinitz, E-1 project

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*** 4-Dec-12 World View -- India's navy prepares to confront China in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan deploys Patriot Missiles to counter North Korea's planned rocket launch
• India's navy prepares to confront China in South China Sea
• A 'Coalition of the Willing' is emerging against China
• European nations summon Israeli ambassadors over new settlement announcement

****
**** Japan deploys Patriot Missiles to counter North Korea's planned rocket launch
****


North Korean military parade, 4/15/2012 (AP)

North Korea says it will launch a long-range rocket in a southerly
direction sometime between December 10-22, between 7 am and noon.
This will be the first new attempt following a humiliating failure in
April, where the rocket exploded shortly after launch. North Korea
claims that the purpose of the launch is to test putting a satellite
into orbit, but it's believed to be a test of a long-range nuclear
weapon delivery system. Because of the possibility that the rocket
will land on Japanese territory, Japan will position surface-to-air
Patriot missiles on Okinawa and two other islands, all of which are
under the North Korean missile's likely flight path. In addition,
Aegis ships carrying interceptor missiles will be deployed. The Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and Yonhap (Seoul)

****
**** India's navy prepares to confront China in South China Sea
****

India's navy is holding practice exercises to confront China's
warships in the South China Sea. Navy chief Admiral DK Joshi said on
Monday that the Indian Navy was prepared to defend Indian assets in
the South China Sea:

"Not that we expect to be in those waters very
frequently, but when the requirement is there for situations where
the country's interests are involved, for example ONGC Videsh, we
will be required to go there and we are prepared for
that."

ONGC Videsh is an Indian energy firm that signed a deal in 2011 with
Vietnam to explore oil in three oil blocks in the South China Sea off
the coast of Vietnam. Oil has already started flowing from one of
those blocks, despite the fact that China warned India earlier this
year to refrain oil exploration in the Vietnamese blocks in order to
ensure "peace and stability" in the area. However, China has
announced plans to board and seize foreign ships in the South China
Sea starting in 2013, and has been conducting naval drills with
warships in preparation. The Indian navy has so far restricted its
sphere of influence to the Indian Ocean region from the Gulf of Aden
to the Malacca Straits near Singapore. The navy chief's statement
could mark a shift in that policy particularly with an assertive
China. India Today

****
**** A 'Coalition of the Willing' is emerging against China
****

As we've been reporting, China's neighbors have been expressing
increasing alarm over China's recent moves to consolidate its takeover
of the entire South China Sea, including regions that historically
have belonged to other countries. In addition to announcing plans to
board and seize foreign ships entering the region, China has issued
new passports containing it's "nine-dash map" that claims sovereignty
over the entire area. ( "2-Dec-12 World View -- China's neighbors express alarm over militant new South China Sea policy"
)

In the wake of fury over China's belligerent policies, an ad hoc
security alliance is emerging among Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam,
and other countries to block China's assertive interventions through
diplomacy or possibly by other means.

Japan is the only naval power in East Asia that can face off with the
burgeoning naval power of the People's Liberation Army.
Japanese officials say Japan has been "building up ties with other
nations that share worries about their imposing neighbor." According
to one Japanese official:

"We want to build our own 'coalition of the willing'
in Asia to prevent China from just running over us."

China Post (Taiwan)

****
**** European nations summon Israeli ambassadors over new settlement announcement
****

Britain, France, Spain, Denmark and Sweden all summoned their Israeli
ambassadors on Monday to criticize Israel's decision to build
thousands of new settlement homes in the West Bank. U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton called the it "a setback for peace," while
Britain called the move "deplorable," and said in a statement:

"I also made clear that the strength of our reaction
stems from our disappointment that the Israeli government has not
heeded the calls that we and others had made for Israel to avoid
reacting to the U.N. General Assembly resolution in a way that
undermines the Palestinian Authority or a return to
talks."

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel said her government is "worried"
about Israel's plans. Merkel is meeting with Israel's prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu in Berlin on Monday.

According to an Israeli official:

"[Israel will] continue to stand up for its vital
interests even in the face of international pressure.

The Palestinian unilateral move at the UN is a blatant and
fundamental violation of agreements to which the international
community was a guarantor. No one should be surprised that Israel
is not sitting with its arms folded in response to the unilateral
Palestinian steps."

Jerusalem Post and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Patriot Missiles, North Korea,
India, South China Sea, ONGC Videsh, DK Joshi,
Philippines, Vietnam, Israel, Benjamin Netaynahu,
Britain, France, Spain, Denmark, Sweden,
Germany, Angela Merkel

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Iran tells its people to marry younger and have babies
****
Iran, a Shia Muslim country, has not been a part of this "community
decision," and its birth rate has been more typical of the West.

Not true. Until about 1990 Iran's fertility rate was equal to, if not higher, that of other Middle Eastern and North African countries.
http://www.google.com/publicdata/exp...l=en&ind=false