The Chinese seem to have no interest in being a liberal hegemon, and are in a hyper nationalist phase. This appears to be provoking resistance even in former vassals.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

As there was about eighty years previous to
that. As there was about eighty years previous to
that.

I'm no expert on Russia's generational timeline, but I do know that
this extremely simplistic claim doesn't make sense. Crossing 13 time
zones, Russia is so big that it's going to have multiple time lines.
At the very least, Chechnya and Ingushetia experienced a "first
turning reset" after Stalin exiled them to Kazakhstan and Siberia in
1944, until Khrushchev allowed them to begin returning in 1957. That
would make the 1990s Chechen war an Unraveling era war for the
Caucasus.

Beyond that, David Kaiser wrote a more nuanced analysis several years
ago, saying that, while WW II was an Awakening era war for Russia, the
German invasion practically destroyed the Prophet generation,
resulting in an eventual postponement of the crisis era, that might
otherwise have occurred in the 1990s.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I'm no expert on Russia's generational timeline, but I do know that
this extremely simplistic claim doesn't make sense. Crossing 13 time
zones, Russia is so big that it's going to have multiple time lines.

It' cute that you think so. Thing is, over its nine timezones (they used to have eleven until they consolidated in 2010... no idea where you got the thirteen from...), Russia is an extremely homogenous culture. There aren't even regional accents among Russians for whom the national language is their mother tongue. There's, indeed, a bit of a lag between Peter and Vladivostok -- but a heck of a lot less than between California and Oklahoma.

At the very least, Chechnya and Ingushetia experienced a "first
turning reset" after Stalin exiled them to Kazakhstan and Siberia in
1944, until Khrushchev allowed them to begin returning in 1957. That
would make the 1990s Chechen war an Unraveling era war for the
Caucasus.

There's no such thing as a "Turning reset", nor is there even a mechanism by which such a thing would be possible. The First Chechen war sure as hell fits the 4T war bill, at least from the standpoint of the locals on whose land it was fought.

Beyond that, David Kaiser wrote a more nuanced analysis several years
ago, saying that, while WW II was an Awakening era war for Russia, the
German invasion practically destroyed the Prophet generation,
resulting in an eventual postponement of the crisis era, that might
otherwise have occurred in the 1990s.

That's the first I've heard of such a claim. It's quite obviously wrong, since there was a vibrant and active Prophet generation among those born during the ~1930s-1940s Russia 1T era. Watch any movie or read anything depicting actual Russian society in the 50s (if you don't have access to primary sources, they're not a completely terrible way to get a glimpse of a social environment), or take at look at any of the arts produced in Russia during that time. The Awakening there is pretty damn clear.

And that lines up well with the observable Crisis mood that Russian society moved into in the 80s and 90s. And the also quite unambiguous 1T social environment that has held there since at least the very earliest of the '00s. Children in Russia now are being raised in ways that so nearly mimic the way the living American children-of-a-1T were raised, that Boomers who have immersed themselves firsthand find themselves drawing parallels without even having the slightest contact with the generational cycles theory.

It's not about taking dates and Big Events and forcing them into patterns. That's not what the generational cycles are about. Turnings are purely and wholly about the scoial environment and the way it affects the cohorts in their various stages of life.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

There's no such thing as a "Turning reset",
nor is there even a mechanism by which such a thing would be
possible.

The fact that you don't know what a first turning reset is doesn't
mean that there's no such thing. I've advanced generational theory
far beyond the work of Strauss and Howe, and I've written about a
number of examples of first turning resets on my web site. Spend some
time there if you'd like to actually have an idea of what you're
talking about.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The fact that you don't know what a first turning reset is doesn't
mean that there's no such thing. I've advanced generational theory
far beyond the work of Strauss and Howe, and I've written about a
number of examples of first turning resets on my web site. Spend some
time there if you'd like to actually have an idea of what you're
talking about.

No, you've bastardized it into a war cycle. Sean Love/Zarathustra tore you a new hole over this years ago.

Your notion that 4Ts require wars is part of a popular but factually wrong "letting off steam" view of human violence.

*** 26-Jan-13 World View -- China threatens to cut off aid to North Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China threatens to cut off aid to North Korea
• Russia blames the West for fomenting jihadist 'blowback'

****
**** China threatens to cut off aid to North Korea
****


Xi Jinping, China's new president

A highly significant and highly fascinating English language editorial
appeared Friday in China's Global Times, an organ of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing (emphasis mine):

<QUOTE>"Not all Peninsula issues China’s problem

In response to UN Security Council Resolution 2087 which was
approved on Wednesday, North Korea vowed that it will carry out a
"high-level" nuclear test. This may not be mere angry words,
because South Korea says preparation for North Korea's new nuclear
test is already in progress.

Wednesday's UN resolution condemned North Korea's rocket launch in
December and expanded existing sanctions. After putting a lot of
effort into amendments for the draft resolution, China also voted
for it.

It seems that North Korea does not appreciate China's efforts. It
criticized China without explicitly naming it in its statement
yesterday: "Those big countries, which are obliged to take the
lead in building a fair world order, are abandoning without
hesitation even elementary principles, under the influence of the
US' arbitrary and high-handed practices, and failing to come to
their senses."

China has a dilemma: We are further away from the goal of
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and there's no possible
way for us to search for a diplomatic balance between North Korea
and South Korea, Japan and the US.

China should be more relaxed and reduce our expectations on the
effect of our strategies toward the peninsula. We should have a
pragmatic attitude to deal with the problems and pursue the
optimal ratio between our investment of resources and strategic
gains.

China can neither take one side of the peninsula conflict like the
US and Japan nor dream of staying aloof. We should readily accept
that China is involved and may offend one side or both sides.

China's role and position are clear when discussing North Korea
issue in the UN Security Council. If North Korea engages in
further nuclear tests, China will not hesitate to reduce its
assistance to North Korea. If the US, Japan and South
Korea promote extreme UN sanctions on North Korea, China will
resolutely stop them and force them to amend these draft
resolutions.

Just let North Korea be "angry." We can't sit by and do nothing
just because we are worried it might impact the Sino-North Korean
relationship. Just let the US, Japan and South Korea grumble about
China. We have no obligation to soothe their feelings.

Due to China's strength, as long as our attitude is resolute, the
situation will be gradually influenced by our principles and our
insistence.

China is a power adjacent to the Korean Peninsula. This means that
our strategic interests are complex and diverse. China should
maintain our national interest to the full extent instead of any
other side's interests.

China hopes for a stable peninsula, but it's not the end of the
world if there's trouble there. This should be the baseline of
China's position.

China is doomed to be located in East Asia where the situation is
now quite chaotic. But luckily, China is the most powerful among
the region's countries, so it will be influenced the least by the
situation. China should stay calm."<END QUOTE>

China has been displaying increasing impatience with its client North Korea,
but the new leadership, led by president Xi Jinping, is apparently willing
to demonstrate its impatience in a big way.

There's a game of brinksmanship going on here. Is Xi simply bluffing?
China does NOT want North Korea to run that nuclear weapon test. The
youthful North Korean president Kim Jong-un will look extremely weak
if he now DOESN'T run the nuclear weapon test. If he does, Xi has
apparently backed himself into a corner, and presumably will be forced
to reduce China's assistance. This doesn't mean that all assistance,
particularly food aid, will be cut off, but presumably some
significant component of the assistance will be affected. Let's all
feel some Schadenfreude for the Chinese. This may even turn out to be
fun to watch. Global Times

****
**** Russia blames the West for fomenting jihadist 'blowback'
****

Russia's president Vladimir Putin has lashed out at the West in recent
days for pursuing what they regard as naive and incoherent Middle East
policies. The reasoning is that the West has supported movements to
oppose dictators in Libya and Syria, and doing that has energized
Sunni Muslim jihadist groups.

According to Putin:

<QUOTE>"The Syrian conflict has been raging for almost two
years now. Upheaval in Libya, accompanied by the uncontrolled
spread of weapons, contributed to the deterioration of the
situation in Mali. The tragic consequences of these events led to
a terrorist attack in Algeria which took the lives of civilians,
including foreigners"<END QUOTE>

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov added the following:

<QUOTE>"Those whom the French and Africans are fighting now
in Mali are the same people who ... our Western partners armed so
that they would overthrow the Gaddafi regime [in
Libya]."<END QUOTE>

With Russia heading deep into a generational Crisis era, the fault
line between Caucasian Muslims and ethnic Russians has been growing
exponentially in recent years, and Putin is implying that the West is
at fault because of Syria and Libya. According to one Russian
analyst:

<QUOTE>"Russia is on the frontier, we are in jihad territory.
Our own fringes, the northern Caucasus, Central Asia, and even the
central Volga region are threatened. That's why we're very clear
about who the enemy is. ... We know this, and you would think that
after 9/11 and other events that our American and European
colleagues would have some clarity about it, too. Yet they always
seem ready to play with fire, and to use militant jihadists
against Russia and its national interests – as they did in
Afghanistan, Chechnya, Libya, and Syria."<END QUOTE>

The Russia criticism of the West even goes back to the Soviet invasion
of Afghanistan in the 1980s. But instead of blaming themselves for
energizing the Sunni Muslim jihadists there, and creating the al-Qaeda
and the Taliban, they blame the West for supplying weapons to those
fighting the Soviets (who, at that time, formed an "Evil Empire" that
was our enemy).

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is very little
to support the Russian analysis. There have been huge, genocidal wars
between the Orthodox Christian civilization and the Muslim
civilization for centuries, and the West didn't cause those wars.
Furthermore, if I had to pick just one event that energized the Sunni
Muslim jihadists from Indonesia to the Maghreb and up to the Caucasus,
that event would be Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by
the Iran/Iraq war (a regional Shia/Sunni war) of the 1980s.

In the West, we focus on World War II as the most significant war of
the 20th century, but for most Muslim countries that was just another
war -- brutal and bloody like all wars, but not a generational Crisis
war. The Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war shook the
entire Muslim world, and particularly inspired Osama bin Laden to
start his jihadist movement to duplicate Iran's revolution, which was
a victory for Shia Muslims, with a similar revolution for a Sunni
al-Qaeda state. Al-Qaeda and its splinter groups have tried this in
Iraq, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, and now in
Mali, and they've failed every time so far. Meanwhile, the Arab
Spring, which was ALSO not caused by the West, is destabilizing the
entire Mideast, which is trending towards a much larger Sunni/Shia
war.

Within Russia itself, the growing fault line is between the (Orthodox
Christian) ethnic Russians and the (Sunni Muslim) ethnic groups in the
Caucasus. However, the mutual xenophobia is not limited to the
Caucasus. Violence between Russians and Caucasians has spread across
the country, particularly in Moscow and Petersburg, as we've reported
in the past. It's affected the army in that Russians and Caucasians
can no longer serve together. Even the Caucasus itself is becoming
devoid of Russians. There has been a massive outflow of ethnic
Russians from the Caucasus since 1991, when the Chechen leadership
declared a so-called "Islamic state," and conducted a targeted
anti-Russian policy. As a result, the number of Russians in Chechnya
went from 220 thousand in 1991 to just 25 thousand in 1999, and the
outflow has continued since then.

It's very convenient for Vladimir Putin to blame the West for a Sunni
Muslim vs Orthodox Christian fault line that's existed for centuries.
But as Russia's generational Crisis era heads towards a full-scale
war, repeating the genocides of past centuries, Putin is going to have
to leave his fantasy bubble world and figure out how to save Russia.
CS Monitor and Newsland (Trans) (Russia) and Sova Center (Russia)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, Global Times,
Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Sergei Lavrov, Caucasus

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The fact that you don't know what a first turning reset is doesn't
mean that there's no such thing.

The fact that one makes up a name doesn't make there be a thing.

I've advanced generational theory
far beyond the work of Strauss and Howe, and I've written about a
number of examples of first turning resets on my web site. Spend some
time there if you'd like to actually have an idea of what you're
talking about.

I've been to your site. I wouldn't use the word 'advanced' to describe what you've done. More appropriate, I think, would be 'completely misunderstood'.

Then again, looking at the picture you try to draw of Russia, and your views on gender relations in general, I'd say that's a good descriptor for a lot of subjects.

I interpret what this Chinese official is saying as part of the Agenda-setting phase of Modelski's Leadership Cycle, in accordance with my alternate timing. I see the leadership cycle as coming into alignment with the saeculum after WW I (the same time the long wave and saeculum began to align and the war cycle stopped working). This alignment features the period of Global War coming during a 3T, in which it is not prosecuted to utter finality (i.e. with nukes) and so allows for the continuation of civilization.

I hold that the US went through a period of global war from 1983-1991 in which the challenger, the USSR, was defeated. This period was followed by the World Power phase, which should have lasted around 20 years, during which the US enjoyed maximum influence. Sometime around now we should be moving into the next phase, the agenda-setting/delegitimization phase.

The period sees the current hegemon leadership coming under increased questioning. The rising powers move into an "agenda setting" period in which one or more rising powers becomes regionally dominant. In the last cycle this period ran from 1945 to 1963, during which time the USSR added the Baltic states to their empire as well as obtained a set of client states in Eastern Europe, marking them as the dominant European power. Today one of the rising powers is China. Recently China has surpassed Japan economically and they seem to wish the nations in the region to acknowledge their new primacy. This fits in well with the agenda setting phase.

Modelski's cycle scheme has us in the deconcentration/coalition-building phase since around 2000. This period sees hegemonic power widely perceived as falling and the rising powers building coalitions or otherwise preparing for the upcoming period of Global War. The last such era for Modelski was the run up to WW I which featured a raft of alliances between various European powers. For me there was another such period after the pre-WW I era. It ran over the 1963-83 period which saw the US lose its first war, the end of the postwar boom, oil shocks, stagflation, the hostage crisis and finally the unavenged dead in Lebanon. I see parallels between this time wrt to America and previous deconcentration periods before WW I and after the Seven Years War for the previous hegemon, Britain.

I don’t see us this far along the decline path, but as Prof Modelski said, time will tell.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

I hold that the US went through a period of global war from
1983-1991 in which the challenger, the USSR, was defeated. This
period was followed by the World Power phase, which should have
lasted around 20 years, during which the US enjoyed maximum
influence. Sometime around now we should be moving into the next
phase, the agenda-setting/delegitimization phase.

Reading your post struck a chord, and reminded me of an article that I
read years ago (in 2004) pointing out that the number of wars in the
world has been decreasing since 1991. I dug the article out of my
archives, and then used google to find it online:

http://legacy.utsandiego.com/news/wo...randpeace.html

<QUOTE>"(8/29/2004) The chilling sights and sounds of
war fill newspapers and television screens worldwide, but war
itself is in decline, peace researchers report.

In fact, the number killed in battle has fallen to its lowest
point in the post-World War II period, dipping below 20,000 a year
by one measure. Peacemaking missions, meantime, are growing in
number.

"International engagement is blossoming," said American scholar
Monty G. Marshall. "There's been an enormous amount of activity to
try to end these conflicts."

For months the battle reports and casualty tolls from Iraq and
Afghanistan have put war in the headlines, but Swedish and
Canadian non-governmental groups tracking armed conflict globally
find a general decline in numbers from peaks in the 1990s."<END
QUOTE>

The article goes on to quote "experts" who explain the worldwide
decline in war:

<QUOTE> Why the declines? Peace scholars point to
crosscurrents of global events.

For one thing, the Cold War's end and breakup of the Soviet Union
in 1989-91 ignited civil and separatist wars in the old East bloc
and elsewhere, as the superpowers' hands were lifted in places
where they'd long held allies in check. Those wars surged in the
early 1990s.

"The decline over the past decade measures the move away from that
unusual period," said Ernie Regehr, director of Project
Ploughshares.

At the same time, however, the U.S.-Russian thaw worked against
war as well, scholars said, by removing superpower support in
"proxy wars," as in Ethiopia, Mozambique and Cambodia. With
dwindling money and arms, warmakers had to seek peace.

The United Nations and regional bodies, meanwhile, were mobilizing
for more effective peacemaking worldwide.

"The end of the Cold War liberated the U.N." historically
paralyzed by U.S.-Soviet antagonism "to do what its founders had
originally intended and more," Mack said. ...

The idea of U.N. primacy in world peace and security took a
"bruising" at U.S. hands in 2003, when Washington circumvented the
U.N. Security Council to invade Iraq, Dwan noted. But meanwhile,
elsewhere, the world body was deploying a monthly average of
38,500 military peacekeepers in 2003 triple the level of 1999.

By year's end, the institute yearbook will conclude, "the U.N. was
arguably in a stronger position than at any time in recent
years.""<END QUOTE>

I found the 2004 yearbook still online:
http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2004/f...RIYB04mini.pdf

Apparently in 2004 the world was about to be saved by the U.N. It's
fun to read this old stuff and see how naive people were. It reminds
me of stuff that was written in 1910 or so, predicting that global
trade meant that wars had ended. Perhaps cultural belief that "all
war has ended" could be part of Modelski's model.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

And that lines up well with the observable Crisis mood that Russian society moved into in the 80s and 90s.

Although the other turnings fit in well and the 1980's and 1990's sure look like a 4T, I have a little difficulty reconciling the S&H concept of a 4T war being fought with singular fury with rather uneventful collapse of the Soviet Union. I can't imagine the US going down without using some of its nukes.

Of course if you plot a saeculum back from the 1980's-1990's you get the revolution which also looks like a 4T, but was another rather quick collapse, the old regime had almost zero fight in it, just like the Soviets in 1991. Perhaps this is just the Russian way, they never challenge their government until its three-quarters into the grave.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

Perhaps this is just the Russian way, they never challenge their government until its three-quarters into the grave.

That's easily part of it. I suspect a lot of Russian-ness as unique qualities might be traceable to the fact that their society is just getting into the swing of what should be a comfortable, prosperous, ultimately sane and predictable 1T era right when the guys next door lose their shit and start swinging knives. Repeat that kind of thing over and over, and it's certain to flavor the quality of the cohorts and the social environment they maintain.

Really, I think the inclusion of wars into the generational cycle was a mistake on S&H's part. While some social alignments might be relatively more or less likely to pursue brawls in this or that way, war (civil wars and revolutions excepted, of course) is ultimately a thing external to a society, and the way a war is prosecuted by one side cannot be wholly independent of the way it is prosecuted by the other. All in all, wars are both a low-fidelity marker, and an easy shortcut for the less-rigorous-minded. Which is a situation simply begging for people to misinterpret.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

That's easily part of it. I suspect a lot of Russian-ness as unique qualities might be traceable to the fact that their society is just getting into the swing of what should be a comfortable, prosperous, ultimately sane and predictable 1T era right when the guys next door lose their shit and start swinging knives. Repeat that kind of thing over and over, and it's certain to flavor the quality of the cohorts and the social environment they maintain.

Really, I think the inclusion of wars into the generational cycle was a mistake on S&H's part. While some social alignments might be relatively more or less likely to pursue brawls in this or that way, war (civil wars and revolutions excepted, of course) is ultimately a thing external to a society, and the way a war is prosecuted by one side cannot be wholly independent of the way it is prosecuted by the other. All in all, wars are both a low-fidelity marker, and an easy shortcut for the less-rigorous-minded. Which is a situation simply begging for people to misinterpret.

I think the emphasis on 4T wars was a side effect of their idealization of the last 4T and WW2 as a non-partisan symbol of unified collective action. They were writing for a non-partisan audience and had they emphasized the New Deal they would have driven off the conservative half of their audience.

*** 27-Jan-13 World View -- Egypt in crisis after two days of violent clashes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt court sentences 21 people to death over riot last year
• At least 40 people killed in nationwide clashes in Egypt
• Nine protesters killed on 2nd anniversary of Egyptian Revolution
• Egypt's government in a state of crisis
• Venezuela's Hugo Chavez still has difficulty breathing, but runs the government from Cuba

****
**** Egypt court sentences 21 people to death over riot last year
****


People carry body of protester killed on Friday (Reuters)

An Egyptian court sentenced 21 people to death on Saturday for
participating in a riot in Port Said on February 2 of last year, where
74 young people were killed, and over 1,000 injured at a football
(soccer) match. ( "3-Feb-12 World View -- Suspicions grow of planned massacre at soccer game in Egypt"
) There were plenty of riot police present at the game,
but video shows that they allowed the violence to continue without
interference, and they may even have aided the violence by blocking
the escape route of the victims. The attackers were mostly fans of
the home team, the al-Masry football club, while the victims were fans
of the visiting team, Cairo's Al-Ahly football club, a group that had
actively taken part in the Tahrir Square protests during 2011, and the
suspicion is widespread that police were responsible for the violence,
in order to get revenge against the Al-Ahly team. The violence
infuriated the people of Cairo, who blamed the deaths on the police.
AFP

****
**** At least 40 people killed in nationwide clashes in Egypt
****

On Saturday, 30 more protesters were killed by police in violent
rioting in Port Said by Egyptians infuriated by the verdict. Most of
those sentenced to death were supporters of the al-Masry team, and so
they lived in the Port Said area. Egyptians from the region were
infuriated not only because of the harsh death sentences, but also
because no one from the Egypt's police was held to account for the
deaths. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Nine protesters killed on 2nd anniversary of Egyptian Revolution
****

The killings on Saturday followed nine killings by police during
protests in Suez on Friday commemorating the two-year anniversary of
the beginning of the Egyptian Revolution that deposed Hosni Mubarak.
Forensic examination on Saturday of the victims shows that they
were shot by live ammunition at close range, sometimes from behind.
Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Egypt's government in a state of crisis
****

With almost 40 people killed in two days, Egypt's president Mohamed
Morsi was forced to cancel a scheduled trip to Ethiopia nad meet with
top generals to discuss the violence. When Morsi was first elected in
June, in the first free and fair presidential elections in Egypt's
history, he originally had a high approval rating. Then, in November,
he was given credit for arranging a cease-fire in the brief war
between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. But he lost it all two days later,
when he "appointed himself Pharaoh of Egypt" by issuing a decree
granting himself dictatorial powers not subject to review by the
courts or appeal. He used these powers to enable Egypt's new
constitution to be written entirely by Muslim Brotherhood Islamists
and al-Nour Salafists. Tensions have been growing between the young
liberals and secularists who launched the revolution two years ago
versus the Islamist conservatives who are now in almost complete
control of the government. The new violence in Port Said may be a
sign that the fault lines in this conflict may even have geographical
overtones, pitting big cities like Cairo versus rural areas. The National (UAE)

I've pointed this out several times in the past, but it's worth
pointing out again: What's developing in Egypt is not Egypt versus
Israel, nor Muslim Brotherhood versus Israel. Except for some
isolated incidents, there have been no protesters screaming "Death to
Israel!" or "Death to America!" as happens in Ramallah and Gaza City.

****
**** Venezuela's Hugo Chavez still has difficulty breathing, but runs the government from Cuba
****

Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez, still in Cuba for cancer treatment,
is having difficulty breathing, according to government officials who
have just returned to Caracas from Havana. Vice-President Nicolás
Maduro says that "Chávez is clinging to life," but added that he is
"climbing the hill." But Maduro insists that Chávez is running
Venezuela's government from Havana, that he's signed a number of
decisions related to Venezuela's gold reserves, and that Chávez asked
him to "send a message of encouragement to private entrepreneurs."
El Universal (Caracas) and El Universal (Caracas)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Al-Masry football club,
Al-Ahly football club, Port Said, Suez, Egyptian Revolution,
Hosni Mubarak, Mohamed Morsi, Israel,
Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by Odin

> I think the emphasis on 4T wars was a side effect of their
> idealization of the last 4T and WW2 as a non-partisan symbol of
> unified collective action. They were writing for a non-partisan
> audience and had they emphasized the New Deal they would have
> driven off the conservative half of their audience.

This has got to be the silliest description of generational theory
that I've seen and shows real disrespect to Strauss and Howe and their
work. I've discovered that the most vitriolic critics of me and
Generational Dynamics, in this forum and elsewhere, are people who
don't have the vaguest clue what Strauss and Howe's work is about, or
what TFT is about. A lot of them are so ignorant, they couldn't find
China on a map.

Strauss and Howe's generational theory and TFT have nothing to do with
politics. I've written about this before. See the following from
2006:

http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...825#post178825

*** 28-Jan-13 World View -- China will impose trade sanctions on North Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• French troops in Mali close to recapturing Timbuktu from jihadists
• Kim Jong-un may be about to order the North Korean nuclear test
• China will impose trade sanctions on North Korea
• Egypt's President Morsi declares emergency in three cities
• Italy's Silvio Berlusconi defends the 'good' Mussolini

****
**** French troops in Mali close to recapturing Timbuktu from jihadists
****


A French soldier in Mali (EPA)

Thousands of residents of the city of northern Mali's city of Gao,
under jihadist control since last April, turned out to celebrate the
invading French and Malian troops, shouting "Liberté!" and "Vive la
France!" At he same time, French troops on Sunday captured Timbuktu
airport and prepared to recapture Timbuktu as well. As little
resistance is expected there as there was in Gao, because the
jihadists simply left town when they learned the French were coming.
They're hiding out in nearby villages or in their networks of tunnels.
The expectation is that the jihadists will be back as soon as the
French troops leave. In order to prevent that outcome, the African
Union is calling on France, as well as Mali's neighboring African
countries, to provide a lot more troops to station in these towns to
keep the jihadists out. Guardian and AFP

****
**** Kim Jong-un may be about to order the North Korean nuclear test
****

According to South Korean military sources, North Korean president Kim
Jong-un is expected imminently to travel to the planned site of an
announced nuclear weapon test, and personally deliver a written order
to go ahead with the test. According to a military source,

<QUOTE>"Kim Jong Un will likely give an order approving a
nuclear test to propagate his political and military achievements
as the country’s supreme military commander and use it to
consolidate his regime."<END QUOTE>

Intelligence officials are closely tracking the movements of senior
North Korean officials to see if they visit the test site, as this
would probably signal that the test is near. Dong-a Ilbo (Seoul)

****
**** China will impose trade sanctions on North Korea
****

As we reported
two days ago, an
editorial in the Chinese Communist Party's Global Times threatens to
"reduce its assistance to North Korea," if the country goes ahead with
the announced nuclear weapon test. A new editorial threatens
to cut foreign trade and investment from China:

<QUOTE>"If North Korea does proceed with a third nuclear
test, they will pay a large price economically.

They have made improving the economy a top priority this year and
have made public commitments domestically about improving the
livelihood of ordinary people.

But North Korea will not be able to make any meaningful
improvements in the economy without foreign trade and
investment. This now comes largely from China.

It is hard to imagine that foreign investors will be willing to
come to North Korea anytime soon if there is a third nuclear test,
and especially if the Chinese government supports adding even more
sanctions in a new UN Security Council resolution, as would be
inevitable in the case of such a provocative action."<END QUOTE>

The editorial claims that North Korea's middle class has experienced
"significant improvements in daily living" recently, but that those
gains would be lost after a nuclear test. Global Times

****
**** Egypt's President Morsi declares emergency in three cities
****


Mohamed Morsi (Al-Ahram)

With seven more deaths on Sunday in clashes between protesters
and police, Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi went on nationwide
television to declare a state of emergency in three coastal
cities, Port Said, Suez, and Ismailia, scenes of major protests
and deaths in the last three days.

<QUOTE>"If I see the state with its people, institutions and
public and private property in danger, I will be forced to do more
than this for the interests of Egypt. This is my duty and I will
not hesitate when it comes to it."<END QUOTE>

There will be a curfew in effect from 9 pm to 6 am in all three cities
for the next 30 days, starting on Monday.

However, there's a question whether the curfew will be honored in Port
Said, where a court sentenced 21 people to death on Saturday for a
football (soccer) riot last year. ( "27-Jan-13 World View -- Egypt in crisis after two days of violent clashes"
) The residents are furious because of the
disproportionately high sentences, and because many people believe
that the police were complicit in the deaths that resulting from the
rioting. On Saturday, Port Said protesters chanted, "Down, down
Morsi, down down the regime that killed and tortured us!" And on
Sunday, protesters in Port Said reacted with mockery and skepticism to
the emergency declaration. According to one protester:

<QUOTE>"The people [in Port Said] feel that there was a
complete state of collapse especially after riots today,
particularly with tear gas being fired into the
funerals."<END QUOTE>

Clashes in several cities are still continuing, as of this writing on
Sunday evening ET. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Italy's Silvio Berlusconi defends the 'good' Mussolini
****

Left-wing rioters praised Benito Mussolini in the 1930s, claiming that
"He may be a dictator, but he kept the trains running on time."
However, since he allied himself and Germany with Hitler in World War
II, he's been condemned by history as a fascist evil. But now, Silvio
Berlusconi, Italy’s former prime minister, has triggered outrage with
comments defending Mussolini at, of all places, a ceremony
commemorating victims of the Nazi Holocaust:

<QUOTE>"It's difficult now to put yourself in the shoes of
people who were making decisions at that time.

Obviously the government of that time, out of fear that German
power might lead to complete victory, preferred to ally itself
with Hitler's Germany rather than opposing it. As part of this
alliance, there were impositions, including combatting and
exterminating Jews. The racial laws were the worst fault of
Mussolini as a leader, who in so many other ways did
well."<END QUOTE>

Berlusconi is campaigning for next month's election at the head of a
coalition that includes far-right politicians whose roots go back to
Italy's old fascist party. After his remarks, a left-wing politician
called Berlusconi "a disgrace to Italy." Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Mali, Gao, Timbuktu,
African Union, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, China,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Port Said, Suez, Ismailia

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Something like this happened in Ireland because of the potato famine, which struck just after the start of 3T. An early crisis was imposed by disaster. The generations were warped, with surviving prophets becoming risk adverse Nomads; the proto-Nomad children were smothered and became adaptive. The 1T came years early, and could be described as an Austerity, rather like a peace of exhaustion. So, yes, extreme circumstances can cause a reset in the cycle.

Question for Mikebert-what do you think may happen if there is more than one rising power at the same time?

Another question for Mikebert-what if the USA should feel compelled to retrench due to an internal 4T?

Question for John Xenakis-could Muslim hostility result in an Orthodox/Western alliance?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

> "reset" example

> Something like this happened in Ireland because of the potato
> famine, which struck just after the start of 3T. An early crisis
> was imposed by disaster. The generations were warped, with
> surviving prophets becoming risk averse Nomads; the proto-Nomad
> children were smothered and became adaptive. The 1T came years
> early, and could be described as an Austerity, rather like a peace
> of exhaustion. So, yes, extreme circumstances can cause a reset in
> the cycle.

Yes, this is a really good analysis.

The other relatively modern example of a first turning reset that I
like to point to is war between Arabs and Jews in 1948-49. This was
an Awakening era war for the Palestinians, but it resulted in a first
turning reset for them.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

> Question for John Xenakis-could Muslim hostility result in an
> Orthodox/Western alliance?

That's actually what I'm expecting. I expect part of the Clash of
Civilizations world war lineup to be China, Pakistan and Sunni Muslim
countries versus India, Russia, Iran, Israel and the West.

North Korea has been described as a satellite of China. North Korea has also been compared to a starving rat...with nuclear teeth.

*** 29-Jan-13 World View -- Egyptian protesters defy president Morsi's 'state of emergency' curfew

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran announces a new finger-amputating machine for thieves
• Greek statistics official charged with colluding with EU and IMF
• Smog smothers Greece as homeowners burn wood to stay warm
• Egyptian protesters defy president Morsi's 'state of emergency' curfew
• U.S. military plans to set up drone base in Niger on Mali border

****
**** Iran announces a new finger-amputating machine for thieves
****


Iran's new finger-amputating machine (Fars/ISNA)

Iran's official government news service Fars/Isna has unveiled
something that could be out of Edgar Allan Poe's horror stories: A
medieval-looking contraption that amputates fingers. Official photos
show two masked men, dressed entirely in black, hold a blindfolded
man's hand in a vice while another turns a wheel that operators a
rotary blade that performs the amputation. Historically, amputating a
finger is the standard punishment for thieves. Independent (London) and Fars ISNA

****
**** Greek statistics official charged with colluding with EU and IMF
****

It's almost impossible, these days, for any crooked government
official in any country, perpetrating even the most massive of crimes
defrauding the public, to be investigated and charged, but Andreas
Georgiou, head of Greece's Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT),
has managed to find a way. This is really mind-boggling. According
to the charges, Greece's budget deficit should have been computed as
4% of GDP in 2009. But, the charges continue, Georgiou colluded with
the EU and the IMF to fudge the figures so that the budget deficit
came out at 15.6% of GDP -- higher than Ireland's at 14.3% -- in order
to justify the May 2010 bailout and its drastic austerity measures.
Some Greek commentators and politicians have seized upon these
allegations as evidence of a wider plot against Greece or proof that
the country was a victim of sinister forces from within and abroad.
Kathimerini

****
**** Smog smothers Greece as homeowners burn wood to stay warm
****

A steep increase in the cost of heating oil is causing many people in
Greece to switch to wood-burning, at half the cost, to keep warm
during the cold winter months. The vast appetite for wood has
encouraged extensive illegal logging - by local residents for private
use but also by organized gangs. Forestry workers have even been
attacked by illegal loggers wielding axes or guns, creating a "Far
West-style situation." However, the wood-burning is creating a severe
health hazard, because of heavy smog that contains not only wood
particles, but also particles of noxious varnishes and synthetic
coatings from burnt furniture. Kathimerini

****
**** Egyptian protesters defy president Morsi's 'state of emergency' curfew
****

Protesters torched police vehicles in downtown Cairo on Monday, and on
Monday evening, the three Suez Canal cities -- Suez, Ismailia and Port
Said -- witnessed mass demonstrations in defiance of the state of
emergency curfew announced by president Mohamed Morsi on Sunday. Many
shops and street cafes remained open after the curfew, and in
Ismailia, residents organized football (soccer) games in front of
government headquarters in a show of defiance. Violent clashes are
continuing, but the army is not interfering or trying to impose the
curfew. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** U.S. military plans to set up drone base in Niger on Mali border
****

The United States and Niger signed an agreement on Monday that paves
the way for a U.S. military drone base in the country, near the border
with Mali, allowing for up to 300 military service members and
contractors in the base to operate the drone aircraft. The new base
will permit monitoring of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and
will gather intelligence for French warplanes targeting strikes
against jihadists in Mali. AFP

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Greece, Andreas Georgiou,
Hellenic Statistical Authority, ELSTAT,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Niger, AQIM

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Originally Posted by TimWalker

Something like this happened in Ireland because of the potato famine, which struck just after the start of 3T. An early crisis was imposed by disaster. The generations were warped, with surviving prophets becoming risk adverse Nomads; the proto-Nomad children were smothered and became adaptive. The 1T came years early, and could be described as an Austerity, rather like a peace of exhaustion. So, yes, extreme circumstances can cause a reset in the cycle.

That could explain why Ireland's Independence Crisis was the first part of the 4T of Ireland. Ireland did not treat World War II as a Crisis (although it is easy to see how Ireland could have been forced into a Crisis -- for example, an invasion of Ireland from the Third Reich in an effort to besiege the UK).

I'm going to figure that Ethiopia had the misfortune to have three Crisis Eras in 100 years -- the Italo-Abyssinian War of 1896, the Italian invasion and conquest of Ethiopia in 1935, and the Great Famine and Commie takeover/Red Terror in the 1970s. A Crisis can be imposed from outside.

I don't know whether this scenario would force a reset... (cue the trailer to Independence Day... or perhaps this nightmare). Modern humanity would get to experience what the Aztec and Inca civilizations experienced.

Can a Crisis Era be stretched? Maybe. Think of the Bolshevik Revolution followed by the short NEP interlude, then the mad collectivization of Soviet agriculture and the Great Purge, with the icing of the horrible Great Patriotic War and the Holocaust in the western Soviet Union -- arguably the nastiest conflict in modern times. That icing, of course, is hydrofluoric acid.

*** 30-Jan-13 World View -- Mali, Libya, Egypt, Syria governments in sharp deterioration

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain reverses direction, will send hundreds of troops to Mali
• Malians in Timbuktu cheer French troops but seek ethnic revenge
• U.N. warns that Mali's jihadists threaten Libya's stability
• Egypt's army chief warns that widespread unrest could cause 'state collapse'
• Lakhdar Brahimi says that Syria is 'breaking up before everyone's eyes'

****
**** Malians in Timbuktu cheer French troops but seek ethnic revenge
****


Malians cheer the arrival of French troops in Timbuktu (Reuters)

French and Malian troops regained control of Timbuktu on Monday, and
were greeted by local residents with broad smiles and wild cheers.
However, ethnic tensions are rising, as black-skinned Malians are
seeking revenge against light-skinned ethnic Tuaregs and "Arabs," who
are blamed for the jihadist horrors that the Malians suffered.
Because of reports of looting and targeting of civilians in newly
liberated areas, France in favor of rapidly deploying "international
observers" to ensure that human rights are respected in Mali. It's
unclear to me what "international observers" means, but I suspect it
implies troops from other non-African countries who won't take side in
Mali's ethnic battles. France's president François Hollande is
calling for additional troops from African nations, so that France can
reduce its own commitment, which is becoming increasingly unpopular in
France. France 24

****
**** Britain reverses direction, will send hundreds of troops to Mali
****

Just two weeks ago, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron said that
no British troops would be sent to join France's troops in Mali, but
now Cameron is flying to Algerian to underline his brand new
commitment to send hundreds of British troops to Mali and the region.
Britain's defense minister denies that this is "mission creep," as the
troops will be used for training Malian troops:

<QUOTE>"It is not our intention to deploy combat troops. We
are very clear about the risk of mission creep and we have defined
very carefully the support we are willing and able to provide to
the French and the Malian authorities.

We have an absolute duty to intervene wherever there is a threat
to Britain's national security and the security of Britain's
interests around the world and this is exactly such a case. This
is a well-judged, well-leveraged intervention that will deliver
efficiently a result that is in Britain's national
interest."<END QUOTE>

However, an opposition leader says that Mali could become
Britain's Vietnam:

<QUOTE>"The American catastrophe in Vietnam started off with
American troops in a training capacity."<END QUOTE>

Britain's announcement follows by one day the American military's
announcement that it plans to set up drone base in Niger on Mali
border, along with 300 troops. Guardian (London) and Telegraph (London)

****
**** U.N. warns that Mali's jihadists threaten Libya's stability
****

An unintended consequence of the West's military intervention in
Libya in 2011 is that, when it ended, hardened Tuareg and
al-Qaeda linked jihadist rebels fled to Mali and took control of the
northern two-thirds of the nation. Now, with French and Malian
troops driving the rebels out of the major cities in northern
Mali, the United Nations is concerned that they'll return to
Libya and destabilize that country:

<QUOTE>"The opposition of armed radical groups to the
military intervention in Mali may exacerbate the situation (in
Libya) given ideological and/or ethnic affiliations as well as
porous borders in Libya."<END QUOTE>

AP

****
**** Egypt's army chief warns that widespread unrest could cause 'state collapse'
****

Protesters continued to ignore on Tuesday evening a curfew order
broadcast on Sunday by president Mohamed Morsi, calling the situation
a "state of emergency." Protests between Islamists on the one hand
and secularists and liberals on the other hand have been growing more
raucous each week. Egypt's defense minister / army chief, General
Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, says that failure to resolve the situation
"could lead to grave repercussions" and would threaten Egypt's
stability:

<QUOTE>"The continuing conflict between political forces and
their differences concerning the management of the country could
lead to a collapse of the state and threaten future
generations."<END QUOTE>

Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Lakhdar Brahimi says that Syria is 'breaking up before everyone's eyes'
****

The United Nations / Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi,
told the Security Council on Tuesday that extreme horrors are
destabilizing Syria, and threatening contamination in neighboring
countries. The warning comes a day after a shocking new massacre
was discovered in Aleppo, with 79 bodies pulled from the river.

<QUOTE>"Unprecedented levels of horror have been reached. The
tragedy does not have an end.

I'm sorry if I sound like an old broken record. The country is
breaking up before everyone's eyes. Only the international
community can help and first and foremost the Security
Council."<END QUOTE>

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Russia and China have
repeatedly blocked any Security Council resolutions threatening
sanctions, and those vetoes are unlikely to change. Brahimi
added the risk of contamination is another reason why action
is required:

<QUOTE>"Most regional parties have aligned with one of the
parties in Syria. There might be implications if the crisis
continues spiraling. The refugee flow is becoming a matter of
controversy in these countries.

Syria is becoming a playground for competing forces.

None of the neighbors is immune to the fallout consequences of the
conflict. The region is facing the risk of
contamination."<END QUOTE>

Israeli Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel warned Tuesday that
Syria is falling apart and no one knows what the next day may bring:
“War may not break out tomorrow,” he said, “but we stand ready for any
eventuality.” Telegraph (London) and Debka


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, David Cameron, Algeria, Mali,
Vietnam, Timbuktu, France, François Hollande,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi,
Syria, United Nations, Arab League, Lakhdar Brahimi,
Russia, China, Israel

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The Problem With china as the main 4T adversary is that any war with china would have the western pacific as the primary battleground, thus naval assets would be emphasized. Geography precludes a WW2 style campaign against them or against us. Russia on the other hand borders europe and with their army, tank and nuclear forces, as well as europes current peacefulness, eastern europe would provide an easy invasion route against the west. Iran as a similar geographic and strategic advantage in the middle east. Thus if a third world war occured in the future, Russia and Iran would be by far the most dangerous potential enemies, any chinese theater would be a side show at best due to geography and china poor strategic position and strategic military strength vis a vis both the US and Russia, not to mention other heavily armed nations that border china, such as india and vietnam.