How things play out would depend on who is fighting who. For example, in a major conflict between Russia and Muslims I doubt that Russia would invade Western Europe. Also, China has been building asymetric means to sink the U.S. Navy in the Western Pacific.

*** 31-Jan-13 World View -- Israel's warplanes strike target in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Koreans fight starvation by turning to cannibalism
• Israel's warplanes strike target in Syria
• Syria's refugee crisis overwhelms Jordan
• Egypt's Port Said's curfew is reduced as anger increases
• Port Said residents increasingly contemptuous of Cairo and Morsi

****
**** North Koreans fight starvation by turning to cannibalism
****


The farms near Pyongyang are barren because of a drought last year (AP)

Reports are surfacing that North Koreans are turning to cannibalism
for survival. In one horrendous story, a father was put to death by
firing squad after it was discovered that the had killed and eaten two
of his children last year. (This story reminds me that decades ago I
read a book on the three-year Nazi siege of Leningrad, with numerous
deaths by cannibalism.) Global Post and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Israel's warplanes strike target in Syria
****

Israel's warplanes crossed Lebanon's air space and struck targets in
Syria on Wednesday. However, there is a dispute over what the targets
were. Unnamed U.S. intelligence officials say that Israel was
targeting a convoy of trucks carrying advanced Russian-made SA-17
anti-aircraft to Lebanon, where Hizbollah would use them to target
Israeli planes. However, Syria's media disputed this account, saying
that the Israeli warplanes had struck a "military research center"
building near Damascus. It's possible that both were targeted, and if
a military research center was targeted, it may be that it was storing
or producing chemical weapons. Bloomberg and BBC

****
**** Syria's refugee crisis overwhelms Jordan
****

Since January 1 of this year, between 40,000 to 50,000 Syrians have
fled into Jordan, in the fastest influx since the beginning of the
Syrian conflict. At this rate, there will be over one million Syrian
refugees in Jordan alone, and several million more in other countries.
Iraq has closed its borders to refugees, but Syria has kept its
borders open, with the result that the flow of refugees is
overwhelming Jordan. The winter has been particularly cold, and
people are living in makeshift tents with little clothing, rarely
getting more than one meal a day. The United Nations High Commission
on Refugees (UNHCR) is calling for $1.5 billion in donations from
other countries to provide aid to the refugees. Al-Jazeera and Reuters

****
**** Egypt's Port Said's curfew is reduced as anger increases
****

The Governor of Port Said, on the Suez Canal in Egypt, has reduced the
9-hour per night curfew imposed by president Mohamed Morsi to 4 hours,
from 1-5 am each night. A similar curfew reduction also went into
effect for the other two Suez Canal cities. It's just as well that
the curfews were reduced, since citizens of the three cities were
ignoring them anyway. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Port Said residents increasingly contemptuous of Cairo and Morsi
****

President Mohamed Morsi's highly selective "state of emergency"
curfews for cities along the Suez Canal not only did not restore
order, but it highlighted how out of the control the situation is
becoming. Port Said residents have been particularly contemptuous of
the fact that Morsi did not impose a curfew on Cairo, where the riots
and demonstrations have been much bigger than in the canal cities.
Furthermore, the canal cities make a lot of money for Cairo, but it
all goes into the pockets of the wealthy élite in Cairo, with little
returning to Port Said. There is increasingly the feeling in Port
Said that the Cairo is losing control of the country, and that they're
on their own. According to one Port Said protester, "[The
authorities] are sitting in their houses, waiting to cash their
salaries at the end of the month, without taking any action toward the
disintegration of the town, leaving people to the chaos." Foreign Policy


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, cannibalism,
Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Hizbollah,
Egypt, Port Said, Mohamed Morsi, Suez Canal

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************************************************** ************

*** 1-Feb-13 World View -- Israel threatened with International Criminal Court over settlements

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's smog becomes deadly, but use of coal increases
• Chinese attackers considered likely in NY Times hacking
• Israel threatened with International Criminal Court over settlements
• France declares 'Mission Accomplished!' in Mali

****
**** China's smog becomes deadly, but use of coal increases
****


Benxi, China, where the major industries are coal mining and steel production

China's consumption of coal has tripled in the last decade.
Currently, China burns as much coal as the rest of the world combined,
and the amount is still surging. Beijing and other Chinese provinces
are paying a heavy price right now, because the smog is causing
respiratory problems, and thousands of premature deaths according to
one study. There's little chance of any cutbacks, as coal accounts
for two-thirds of China's energy supply. Millions of cars also add to
the pollution. The air quality index is so high that the Beijing
Meteorological Bureau is advising children and the elderly not to leave
home. To make matters worse, the smog is reducing visibility on the
icy roads. There have been at least 2,000 reports of traffic
accidents, and at least two people have died. BBC and
Xinhua

****
**** Chinese attackers considered likely in NY Times hacking
****

Attackers have been hacking into computer systems at the NY Times for
the last four months, stealing the corporate passwords for every
employee and compromising the home PCs of multiple reporters. It's
believed that the attackers gained initial entry by using "spear
phishing" attack on some of the reporters. That is, the attackers
gathered personal information about the reporters from multiple
sources, including Facebook, and used that information to create a
credible, personal e-mail message with a link that the reporter would
click on, resulting in malware being installed on his computer. Once
the malware was installed, the attackers could gather additional
information to escalate the attack. Some 45 people's computers were
infected with custom-designed malware, indicating a large,
sophisticated attack. China's government is the suspected
perpetrator, but that hasn't been proven. The NY Times' computers
were supposedly protected by Symantec's Norton Antivirus, and is now
suffering a major black eye as a result of the incident. Information Week and Forbes

****
**** Israel threatened with International Criminal Court over settlements
****

The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHCR) is demanding
that Israel permanently end its settlement building in the West Bank,
and that Israel immediately begin a process of withdrawing
from the West Bank and east Jerusalem. According to the draft
report, prepared by 3 members of the UNHCR:

<QUOTE>"The establishment of the settlements in the West Bank
including east Jerusalem is a mesh of construction and
infrastructure leading to a creeping annexation that prevents the
establishment of a contiguous and viable Palestinian state and
undermines the rights of the Palestinian people to
self-determination."<END QUOTE>

The report stopped short of advocating that the issue be brought to
the International Criminal Court (ICC), but says that the ICC has
jurisdiction. In particular, the State of Palestine may go to the
ICC, with a result that "may lead to accountability for gross
violations of human rights law and serious violations of international
humanitarian law and justice for victims. Israel has rejected the
report as "biased," pointing out that there's no mention of the
experience with Gaza. In 2005, Israel withdrew all its settlements
and military from Gaza, but the result has been something that no one
expected: Hamas took control of Gaza in 2008, and has been using Gaza
as a base for terror and rocket attacks on Israel. The Israelis fear
that the same thing could happen in the West Bank. Jerusalem Post

****
**** France declares 'Mission Accomplished!' in Mali
****

France's Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said France's air attacks
had hit the Mali rebels hard:

<QUOTE>"The jihadists suffered heavy losses. There were
numerous strikes which hit their equipment and men.

The French intervention has succeeded. [Rebel fighters are]
returning home, or trying to cross the borders, which will be more
and more difficult... or they are making a tactical
retreat."<END QUOTE>

Le Drian said that France's warplanes were striking Kidal, the last
militant stronghold in northern Mali, and ground troops were gathering
to enter the city. France now has 3,500 troops on the ground.
AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, smog, coal, Benxi,
NY Times, spear phishing, Symantec, Norton Antivirus,
Israel, West Bank, Jerusalem, International Criminal Court, ICC,
Human Rights Council, UNHCR,
France, Jean-Yves Le Drian, Mali

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http://www.scribd.com/doc/123241528/...-Of-The-Elites

Good read.

I'm wondering if we will eventually have to resort to old style analog tech for our most crucial functions. Digital information technology is too vulnerable.

Been having trouble posting a link...regarding an old Muslim/Buddhist fault line. (The site made a reference to the battle of the Talas river). An old fault line...but active today.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Been having trouble posting a link...regarding an old Muslim/Buddhist fault line. (The site made a reference to the battle of the Talas river). An old fault line...but active today.

Maybe either Buddha or Allah is sending you a message.

The Battle of Talas River



http://www.islam-watch.org/HistoryOf...hadInChina.htm

*** 2-Feb-13 World View -- Egypt protesters clash with police in 'Friday of Deliverance'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Far left suicide bomber attacks U.S. embassy in Ankara Turkey
• Putin invites Boyz II Men to Russia to improve fertility
• Egypt protesters clash with police in 'Friday of Deliverance'

****
**** Far left suicide bomber attacks U.S. embassy in Ankara Turkey
****


Suicide bomber Ecevit Sanli in top left corner of photo of U.S. embassy in Ankara on Friday (IHA/Zaman)

Ecevit Sanli, a member of the far-left terrorist Revolutionary
People's Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C), detonated a suicide vest on
Friday at the entrance of the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, Turkey. Embassy
security had been increased since the embassy attack in Benghazi, and
so the Sanli was stopped at the first of a series of checkpoints as he
attempted to enter the embassy. As a result, there was only one death
besides the bomber -- the Turkish guard at the first checkpoint.
Police detained nearly 100 DHKP/C members last month, and 55 of them
were arrested pending trial on accusations of being members of a
terrorist organization. Police seized a large number of documents from
the addresses of the suspects, which revealed the group's plans to
assassinate politicians, judges, prosecutors and police officers.
There has been no claim of responsibility for the attack. It's not
known whether the terrorist attack is related to the conflict in
Syria, or to the batteries of Nato's Patriot anti-missile missiles
being installed on Turkey's border with Syria. Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** Putin invites Boyz II Men to Russia to improve fertility
****

With Russia's population having suffered a devastating decline in
recent years, president Vladimir Putin is looking for new ways to
promote his fertility campaign, to get Russian couples to have more
sex and more kids. Putin's latest attempt to inspire men and women
comes just before Valentine's day, as the Western R&B trio Boyz II Men
will perform a selection of their classic and new romantic ballads in
a concert in Moscow on February 6. Rumors are that they may write a
new song about Moscow. Moscow Times

****
**** Egypt protesters clash with police in 'Friday of Deliverance'
****


Protesters throw fireworks at police in Cairo on Friday (Reuters)

In the Mideast, the largest demonstrations always occur on Fridays,
after midday prayers end, and worshippers pour out the mosques into
the streets. In Egypt, the National Salvation Front (NSF), a group of
16 Egyptian opposition parties and movements, had called for massive
"Friday of Deliverance" anti-government protests. Tens of thousands
of protesters took to the streets on Friday. The protests were
peaceful at first, but turned violent in the evening, especially near
the Presidential Palace in Cairo. At one point, protesters hurled
Molotov cocktails and firecrackers at the police, who returned the
attack with gun fire and volleys of teargas. The political situation
in Egypt is deteriorating rapidly, and it's far from clear that
president Mohamed Morsi will be able to stop the carnage and bring it
under control. The riots and violence have broader implications, in
that Qatar is supporting Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, while the
Saudis are supporting the Salafist al-Nour party, and the Obama
Administration supports the Army. There are increasing fears that
these three forces will clash, leading either to a military coup or to
a civil war. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Debka

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Ankara, Ecevit Sanli,
Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front, DHKP/C,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, fertility campaign, Boyz II Men,
Egypt, Friday of Deliverance, Mohamed Morsi,
National Salvation Front, NSF, Muslim Brotherhood,
Salafist al-Nour, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

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*** 3-Feb-13 World View -- Japan arrests China fishing boat accused of fishing Japan's fish

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mali's 'Savior' says that France's fight is far from over
• Hong Kong faces a powdered milk crisis
• Japan arrests China fishing boat accused of fishing Japan's fish

****
**** Mali's 'Savior' says that France's fight is far from over
****


Timbuktu woman: 'I just want to say thank you from myself and the people of Mali - Vive la France! I hope Francois Hollande continues to help us and that that we can stay free like this' (BBC)

France's president François Hollande visited Bamako and Timbuktu in
Mali and received a rapturous welcome from his former colonial
subjects, with shouts of "Hollande the savior," and "the angel who
stopped the disaster in Mali." However, Saturday may well be the
high point of France's military adventure in Mali, because
France "won" the war with barely a single casualty. According
to Hollande,

<QUOTE>"There is still a whole part of the north that remains
unconquered ... There are terrorist elements concentrated in some
areas of the country, others who are dispersed. There are risks of
terrorism. So, we have not yet finished our mission."<END QUOTE>

The jihadists could not counter the well-equipped French and Malian
armies, supported by air power, and so they simply melted away, taking
refuge in the mountainous and inaccessible areas on the borders. From
there, they can mount hit and run attacks, and fighting that war will
require the use drones in the way that the U.S. military is using them
in Pakistan and Yemen. However, France does not have the capabilities
to fight that kind of war, and may be forced to call on Nato and the
U.S. for help. Hollande said, "We do not foresee staying
indefinitely," (famous last words), but didn't specify any specific
time frame for departure. Reuters and BBC

****
**** Hong Kong faces a powdered milk crisis
****

Hong Kong's government has announced a string of emergency measures to
cope with the shortage of milk powder and baby milk formula on grocery
store shelves. The problem is that mainland Chinese mothers don't
trust the quality and safety of milk powder manufactured on the
mainland. In 2008, thousands of babies got sick because Chinese milk
producers added melamine, an industrial chemical used to make plastics
and fertilizer, to their milk products, in order to give the
appearance of higher protein levels. (See "A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster"
from 2008.)

The recent crisis has been exacerbated by a surge in "parallel
trading" in milk powder. That phrase refers to unauthorized
exports of a product to another country (in this case, milk powder
to mainland China), in order to make unauthorized profits. Parallel
traders have been flooding Hong Kong markets and carrying as
much milk powder back to the mainland as possible, where they
take advantage of mothers' anxieties and charge extremely high prices.

Among the measures that Hong Kong authorities are taking to stop
parallel trading of powdered milk are:

• Any person departing Hong Kong is limited to 1.8kg of
  milk powder.
  
• A 24-hour hotline has been set up for parents needing milk powder.
  It received 3416 calls on the first day.
  
• The weight of luggage carried by passengers on mass transit
  will be restricted.
  
• The government will profile people entering Hong Kong from the
  mainland, and refuse those who appear to be parallel
  traders.

This parallel trading dispute is only the latest example of the
contempt that Hong Kongers have for mainland Chinese. As we described last year,
a popular song in
Hong Kong is "Locust World", which describes how mainlanders come to
HK like a swarm of locusts that are "experts in stealing, cheating,
deceiving and lying." South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and People Daily (Beijing)

****
**** Japan arrests China fishing boat accused of fishing Japan's fish
****

Japan's coast gard arrested the captain and 13-man crew of a Chinese
coral fishing boat on suspicion of fishing in the Japan's exclusive
economic zone (EEZ) without permission from Japan. The boat tried to
escape after it was originally spotted by a patrol plane, but Japan's
coast guard caught up. A similar incident in 2010 set off an
international uproar and caused a huge wave of xenophobic nationalism
in Japan. Japan was forced into a humiliating climbdown after China
threatened severe trade sanctions. Earlier in the day, Japan's Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe spoke about the island dispute with China to a
Coast Guard audience:

<QUOTE>"Since the country has acquired the ownership of the
Senkaku islands, there has been an increase in incursions and
patrols by Chinese government vessels. I highly commend the daily
work and the effect that you of the Coast Guard [have] as you
protect the waters around our country.

It can be predicted that the situation in the southwestern ocean
will continue to be difficult. I hope that you of the Coast Guard
will continue in your work of protecting Japan's
sovereignty."<END QUOTE>

Japan Times and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Mali, François Hollande,
Bamako, Timbuktu, Hong Kong, milk powder, melamine,
parallel trading, Locust World, Japan, China, Abe Shinzo

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*** 4-Feb-13 World View -- Thousands of migrants in Athens Greece apply to return home

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Polish is second most spoken language in England
• Israel's air strike into Syria raises regional tensions
• Thousands of migrants in Athens Greece apply to return home
• France protects uranium mines in Niger

****
**** Polish is second most spoken language in England
****


Polish food store in London (Getty)

Results from the 2011 census show that, in England and Wales, neither
English nor Welsh is the main language for about 8% of the population.
Polish has become the most commonly spoken non-native language in
England and Wales, while it was not even in the top 12 ten years
earlier in 2001. However, the Polish language itself is being
infiltrated by English words. This is especially true in the office,
where such English words as "briefing", "marketing," and "PR" are now
commonly used by Polish speakers. Other languages frequently used in
England and Wales include Punjabi, Urdu and Bengali. Independent (London)

****
**** Israel's air strike into Syria raises regional tensions
****

The armies of Syria, Lebanon and Jordan are all on high alert,
according to a report from Lebanon. The alerts are a consequence of
Israel's warplane attacks on Wednesday. There's still a bit of
mystery surrounding the Israeli air strike. Western sources say that
the target was a convoy of trucks carrying advanced Russian-made
surface-to-air missiles from Syria to Hizbollah, for use in targeting
Israeli aircraft. However, Syria says no, that's not it at all. The
strike was on a military research building. Syria says that it's
going to retaliate against Israel for the attack, leading to increased
tension in the region. Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday
did not admit to the air strike, but hinted at it by saying,

<QUOTE>"That is another proof that when we say something we
mean it. We say that we do not think it should be allowable to
bring advanced weapons systems into Lebanon."<END QUOTE>

But Syria's president Bashar al-Assad accused Israel of trying to
"destabilize" Syria and overthrow his regime, adding, "(This action)
unmasked the true role Israel is playing, in collaboration with
foreign enemy forces and their agents on Syrian soil, to destabilize
and weaken Syria." Israel National News and VOA

****
**** Thousands of migrants in Athens Greece apply to return home
****

Poor and unemployed, with little hope of being able to earn a living,
thousands of migrants from countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Georgia, Ghana, and Iraq are applying for a funded program
that helps them leave Greece to return to their home countries.
Greece is a major transit country for thousands of irregular migrants
trying to reach Western Europe. But many decide to return home when
they become stranded, jobless and are forced to sleep on the streets
of Athens. The International Organization for Migration (IOM), which
is funded by grants from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, provides
small grants to migrants who have simply run out of money and want to
return home. Kathimerini and International Organization for Migration

****
**** France protects uranium mines in Niger
****

Niger has confirmed that France's special forces are protecting one of
the country's biggest uranium mines. French company Areva plays a
major part in uranium mining in Niger, and French special forces have
been assigned to the Arlit mine after 37 foreign workers were killed
when al-Qaeda linked militants seized a gas plant in Algeria two weeks
ago. Meanwhile, France said that 30 warplanes had bombed sites run by
Islamist extremists north of the historic Tuareg center Kidal, in
preparation for the entrance of French-led troops. The troops are
meeting little resistance, because the militants are fleeing to the
mountainous terrain around Kidal, probably to regroup and strike back
when the French troops leave. France is now desperately trying to
finish up and withdraw its troops before "anything" happens, but Mali
officials are begging the French to stay longer. BBC and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, England, Wales, Polish,
Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Ehud Barak,
Bashar al-Assad, Greece, Norway, Iceland,
International Organization for Migration IOM,
France, Mali, Niger, uranium

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*** 5-Feb-13 World View -- Neo-Nazis in Greece and Germany establish mutual links

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Neo-Nazis in Greece and Germany establish mutual links
• Japan blanketed by suffocating smog from China
• Israel considers a 10-mile buffer zone within Syria
• Conspiracy theory alleges link between Jews and Muslim Brotherhood

****
**** Neo-Nazis in Greece and Germany establish mutual links
****


Golden Dawn supporters on Saturday (Reuters/Spiegel)

The neo-Nazi Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) political party in Greece,
which is gaining popularity in the financial crisis, is establishing
close contacts with neo-Nazis in Bavaria in Germany. Golden Dawn is
led by Nikolaos Michaloliakos and has called for a revolution in
Greece and an "ethnically pure" nation. Members of the party are
accused of physically attacking immigrants and members of the
country's left-wing. They also regularly stage intimidating marches,
wearing military uniforms and singing Nazi chants, in immigrant
neighborhoods of Athens. Spiegel

****
**** Japan blanketed by suffocating smog from China
****

As we recently reported,
China's coal consumption has triped in the last decade, and continues
to surge, with the result that heavy, dangerous smog is covering
much of eastern China, not only creating respiratory disease,
but even causing traffic accidents because of reduced visibility.
Now air pollution over western Japan is reaching dangerous levels,
as prevailing winds bring airborne particles from China.
According to one person on the streets, of Tokyo,
"It is very worrying. This is dangerous pollution, like poison, and we
can't protect ourselves. It's scary."
AFP

****
**** Israel considers a 10-mile buffer zone within Syria
****

Israel is considering creating a buffer zone inside Syria to protect
Israel from Syrian militias. The buffer zone could reach 10 miles
inside Syria, and would be modeled on the Lebanese security zone,
which is jointly policed by the South Lebanese and Israeli armies.
There is already a 20-foot steel wall being constructed along the
border, replace a 40 year old fence. The buffer zone would serve as
temporary protection until the wall is completed. UPI

****
**** Conspiracy theory alleges link between Jews and Muslim Brotherhood
****

A conspiracy theory circulating in the Arab world, presumably
among those wishing to attack both Jews and the Muslim
Brotherhood, is claiming that the Muslim Brotherhood
is cooperating with the Jews in order to control Muslims and
establish a "Greater Israel." According to an official
of the Anti-Defamation League,

<QUOTE>"It would seem that no allegation made against Jews
and Israel is too absurd when it is used to discredit others.
However bizarre and ludicrous, it is an increasingly popular
conspiracy theory that the Muslim Brotherhood is a Jewish
production to destroy Egyptians."<END QUOTE>

Jewish Telegraphic Agency


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Golden Dawn, Chrysi Avgi,
Neo-Nazis, Germany, Bavaria, Japan, China,
Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt

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*** 6-Feb-13 World View -- In escalation, China locks its 'fire control radar' on Japanese targets

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bulgaria blames Hizbollah for bus attack killing Israelis
• Lebanon promises to cooperate with Bulgaria's investigation
• In escalation, China locks its 'fire control radar' on Japanese targets
• China accuses Japan of escalating dispute of Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
• Analysis: China/Japan standoff similar to leadup to World War I

****
**** Bulgaria blames Hizbollah for bus attack killing Israelis
****


Burgas Bulgaria bus bombing, July 19, 2012

On July 19 of last year, a young man wearing plaid Bermuda sports, a
bright blue T-shirt, baseball cap, sunglasses and long hair boarded a
bus in Burgas, Bulgaria, along with 44 Israeli tourists on their way
to a Black Sea beach-front hotel. A few seconds later, an explosion
killed the bus driver and five Israelis, and injured dozens more.
Initial indications pointed to involvement by Iran and Hizbollah, but
nothing could be proven at the time. But after months of
investigation, Bulgaria on Tuesday accused two Hizbollah agents of
carrying out the bomb attack:

<QUOTE>"There is data showing the financing and connection
between Hizbullah and the two suspects.

What can be established as a well-grounded assumption is that the
two persons whose real identity has been determined belonged to
the military wing of Hizbollah."<END QUOTE>

Iran denied any involvement, but Israel accused Hizbollah and Iran of
waging a "global terror campaign," saying the Burgas bomb was among a
series of such attacks carried out in Thailand, Kenya, Turkey, India,
Azerbaijan, Cyprus and Georgia. Reuters and Spiegel (July, 2012)

****
**** Lebanon promises to cooperate with Bulgaria's investigation
****

Prime Minister Najib Mikati vowed that Lebanon's government would
cooperate with Bulgaria in investigating the involvement of Hizbollah
in last July's bus attack:

<QUOTE>"[Lebanon's government is] ready to cooperate with
Bulgaria to uncover the circumstances [of the attack].

Lebanon also reiterates its commitment to the security of Bulgaria
and all members of the EU. Lebanon trusts the Bulgarian authority
in its investigation and is ready to cooperate to uncover the
circumstances of the issue for the sake of justice."<END QUOTE>

It remains to be seen just how much Lebanon's government will be able
to cooperate, however, since Hizbollah is part of Lebanon's
government. Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** In escalation, China locks its 'fire control radar' on Japanese targets
****

Japan on Tuesday accused China of locking its "fire control radar" on
a Japanese destroyer and helicopter in two separate incidents last
month. Locking fire control radar on a target is the step that's
taken just before a radar-guided "fire and forget" missile is launched
on the target. The radar can track a moving target to guarantee that
the missile attack will succeed. Since China did not actually push
the red button that would launch the missile, the locking was
apparently intended as a threat to Japan to back off from its claims
to the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. However, this is a major military
escalation by the Chinese, because when a vessel detects that it's
being targeted by fire control radar, then the captain of that vessel
only has a few seconds to decide whether to return fire. Last month,
China issued a directive to the People's Liberation Army: Get Ready for War,
and China continues to
take actions that signal that a preemptive Chinese attack is coming.
The Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and Sydney Morning Herald

****
**** China accuses Japan of escalating dispute of Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
****

China did not comment on the radar locking threat on Tuesday,
but instead accused Japan of escalating the dispute of the Senkaku/Diaoyu
islands "by setting up a new publicity office aimed at ... propaganda
issues."

<QUOTE>"[China] stressed that the Diaoyu Islands are China's
inherent territory and so are the surrounding waters, and Chinese
marine surveillance vessels are conducting regular patrols in
Chinese territorial waters."<END QUOTE>

According to Chinese government media,

<QUOTE>"China has a much larger population than Japan and
there are many more overseas Chinese than overseas Japanese. Japan
is not expected to take a rational attitude toward China. The
Chinese public and overseas Chinese should take the initiative and
carry out legal campaigns against Japan.

The time when Japan gained advantages from moves like this has
long gone. China's retaliatory restrictions have shocked Japan. If
Japan makes provocations once again, it is Japan that is bound to
suffer."<END QUOTE>

Global Times (Beijing) and China Daily (Beijing)

****
**** Analysis: China/Japan standoff similar to leadup to World War I
****

There is a striking analogy between China today and Germany before
World War I. The adept leadership of Otto von Bismarck gave way to
much clumsier political and military leadership by younger generations
in the years before WW I, who encouraged nationalism as an alternative
outlet for anti-government sentiment. According to analyst Graham
Allison,

<QUOTE>"The mechanism in 1914 is instructive. Who could
imagine that Serbian terrorists could kill an archduke no one had
heard of and trigger a great war, at the end of which all
contestants were devastated. My view is that the Chinese
leadership has no intention of challenging the US militarily,
yet. But what about the hothead nationalists in China or
Japan?"<END QUOTE>

The "hothead nationalists in China and Japan" today are the
generations corresponding to America's nihilistic Generation-X.
Gulf News / FT

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burgas, Bulgaria, Israel, Hizbollah,
Iran, Lebanon, Najib Mikati, China, Japan,
fire control radar, Senkaku, Diaoyu,
Germany, Otto von Bismarck, World War I,
Graham Allison

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

****
**** Analysis: China/Japan standoff similar to leadup to World War I
****

There is a striking analogy between China today and Germany before
World War I. The adept leadership of Otto von Bismarck gave way to
much clumsier political and military leadership by younger generations
in the years before WW I, who encouraged nationalism as an alternative
outlet for anti-government sentiment. According to analyst Graham
Allison,

<QUOTE>"The mechanism in 1914 is instructive. Who could
imagine that Serbian terrorists could kill an archduke no one had
heard of and trigger a great war, at the end of which all
contestants were devastated. My view is that the Chinese
leadership has no intention of challenging the US militarily,
yet. But what about the hothead nationalists in China or
Japan?"<END QUOTE>

The "hothead nationalists in China and Japan" today are the
generations corresponding to America's nihilistic Generation-X.
Gulf News / FT

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burgas, Bulgaria, Israel, Hizbollah,
Iran, Lebanon, Najib Mikati, China, Japan,
fire control radar, Senkaku, Diaoyu,
Germany, Otto von Bismarck, World War I,
Graham Allison

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The day that that war starts, remind me to sing this song: Oh! It's a Lovely War!



~Chas'88

*** 7-Feb-13 World View -- Riots in Tunisia after assassination

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Riots spread in Tunisia after popular opposition leader assassination
• Tunisia - the birthplace of the Arab Spring
• China: N. Korea 'must pay a heavy price' for third nuclear test
• S. Koreans debate pre-emptive strike on N. Korean nuclear site
• Japan considers modifying anti-war provisions of constitution

****
**** Riots spread in Tunisia after popular opposition leader assassination
****


Chokri Belaid during a radio interview in November

Long-term simmering tensions between secularists and Islamists in
Tunisia exploded into violence Wednesday, as word spread that a
popular secular leader and outspoken government critic Chokri Belaid
was shot dead with three bullets fired from close range. Police fired
tear gas at the thousands of protesters gathered outside the interior
ministry in central Tunis to denounce the murder. It's not known who
is responsible for the murder, but protesters are blaming the ruling
Ennahada party and its leader Rached Ghannouchi. Ennahada party
offices were torched and ransacked in Tunis and in other cities,
including Sidi Bouzeid, considered the birthplace of the Arab Spring.
Tunisia's government has collapsed for the time being, and opposition
parties are calling for a nationwide general strike to protest the
murder. France 24

****
**** Tunisia - the birthplace of the Arab Spring
****

Over two years of turmoil throughout the Arab world, known as the
"Arab Spring," is thought to have been triggered on December 17, 2010,
when a street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi set fire to himself in Sidi
Bouzid in central Tunisia, in protest of the police confiscation of
his vegetable cart. After days of clashes between protesters and the
police, long-time dictator Ben Ali was forced to flee the country, and
is currently in exile in Saudi Arabia. By January the clashes had
spread to Egypt, Yemen, Morocco and Lebanon, launching the Arab
Spring. Tunisia's current government is led by prime minister. Hamadi
Jebeli, secretary general of the Ennahada party. The Ennahada party
is usually referred to as a "moderate Islamist" party, not as
religiously conservative as Tunisia's Salafist parties, but opposed by
Tunisia's secular parties. The secularists are blaming Ennahada and
the Salafists for the murder, but so far the perpetrator has not been
identified. Daily Star (Beirut) and Reuters

****
**** China: N. Korea 'must pay a heavy price' for third nuclear test
****

According to state-run Chinese media, a third nuclear test by North
Korea, which is considered by outside observers to be imminent, is
complicating relations between China and North Korea. China has
strenuously expressed its disapproval of North Korean nuclear testing,
and has threatened economic sanctions if a third test proceeds. North
Korea will pay a heavy price if it conducts a third nuclear test.
Some fear the worst case scenario, that the rupture that occurred in
relations between China and Soviet Union will be repeated. But China
will not be taken hostage by North Korea's intransigence, although
China and North Korea have a strong friendship. Global Times (Beijing)

****
**** S. Koreans debate pre-emptive strike on N. Korean nuclear site
****

Fears are increasing that North Korea's imminently expected
third nuclear test will be of a type that will allow North
Korea to create a nuclear weapon small enough to be the
nuclear warhead of a long-range missile, such as the missile
they recently tested. The South Koreans are weighing the
possibility of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea's nuclear
test site, although no such strike is planned at the current
time. According to South Korea's Defense Committee chairman,
when told that a strike is possible if the situation changes:

<QUOTE>"Are you sticking to your guns even if a pre-emptive
strike on the North's nuclear weapons will lead to a full-scale
war? It would be better to destroy the North's nuclear weapons
first than to be struck by them, given that that would lead to a
war in any case."<END QUOTE>

Chosun Ilbo (Seoul)

****
**** Japan considers modifying anti-war provisions of constitution
****

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing a goal to
reinterpret Article 9 of Japan's post-war Constitution, in which
war was renounced. The changes would be aligned with
the Japan-U.S. military alliance, and would permit military
action in four specific situations:

• To shoot down a ballistic missile flying over Japan possibly
  toward the United States;
• To defend U.S. military ships on the high seas that are engaged in
  joint operations with the Maritime Self-Defense Force;
• To defend allied troops in U.N.-led peacekeeping operations;
• To provide logistic support for U.N.-led troops using military
  force.

Public opinion now strongly favors such a constitutional change, where
it didn't just three years ago. However, there is some parliamentary
opposition to the change. 76-year-old Yohei Kono, who lived through
World War II, says:

<QUOTE>"I don’t think politicians understand the price we
have to pay if we are going to revise the Constitution or
reinterpret Article 9. The Constitution has contributed to the
peace and regional stability of Japan since the war, which is why
we have not revised the Constitution even though creating our own
Constitution has been one of the LDP’s goals since the party was
launched in 1955."<END QUOTE>

According to Kono, the rightward shift in public opinion is occurring
because so many of the current crop of lawmakers were born after World
War II and have no experience with the horrors of war -- which is
exactly the kind of point that Generational Dynamics makes. Japan Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tunisia, Chokri Belaid, Ennahada,
Rached Ghannouchi, Arab Spring, Mohamed Bouazizi,
China, North Korea, South Korea,
Japan, Abe Shinzo, Yohei Kono

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*** 8-Feb-13 World View -- Libor-rigging scandal and lying on Wall Street

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Dept. of Justice announces civil lawsuit against S&P ratings
• Royal Bank of Scotland fined $612 million for Libor-rigging
• The moral bankruptcy of Libor-rigging traders
• Ron Baron, Baron Capital, doubles down on lying about stock valuations

****
**** Dept. of Justice announces civil lawsuit against S&P ratings
****


Results of investment-grade subprime mortgage-backed securities issued in 2005-2007 (Bloomberg)

As we've been saying for a long time, the Obama administration has
adamantly refused to even investigate, let alone prosecute, American
bankers for the financial crisis, even where there's massive evidence
of fraud. (See "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud" from 2010.) I've described two reasons for
this: One is that Generation-Xers, having had bad experiences with the
criminal justice system in the 1980s, are unwilling to prosecute other
Gen-Xers; the second is that the Obama administration benefited
greatly through criminal activities of bankers because of campaign
contributions.

Now the time seems to be turning. It's becoming overwhelmingly clear
that the crimes of Gen-Xers were so egregious that blaming Boomers no
longer makes sense in many cases. And the presidential campaign is
over, so there'll be no more political contributions for a while
anyway.

On Wednesday, the Justice Dept. filed a civil lawsuit charging
Standard & Poors Financial Services with effectively colluding with
banks to give invalid AAA ratings to synthetic securities backed by
subprime mortgages. According to e-mail messages, S&P knew as early
as 2004 that their models were wrong, but they kept the invalid models
anyway so that they could continue issuing AAA ratings. (See
"A primer on financial engineering and structured finance" from 2008.)

The result of this fraud was disastrous, as shown by the chart above,
which shows the default rate of investment grade subprime
mortgage-backed securities issued in 2005-2007. AAA rated securities
were downgraded (equivalent to a default) 80% of the time, even though
the ratings models assume that an AAA default rate of less than 0.1%.
Even BBB rated securities are supposed to downgrade or default only 1%
of the time, but 100% of them failed. USA Today and Dept. of Justice and Text of lawsuit (PDF)

****
**** Royal Bank of Scotland fined $612 million for Libor-rigging
****

Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) is the benchmark interest rate
used in the pricing of some 1/3 of $1 quadrillion in financial
instruments worldwide, so even a small change in the Libor rate can
affect trillion of dollars in securities. There are about 20 banks in
Europe and N. America that compare rates every day to come up with the
Libor index for that day. What was revealed last year was that
bankers at Barclays were purposely rigging Libor rates in order to
control the values of securities that they bought and sold, in order
to make vast profits. The bankers setting Libor rates at the 20 banks
knew each other and did favors for each other -- raising or lowering
Libor rates by small amounts so that they could all profit -- in
what is being called the biggest financial fraud of all time.

For example, an e-mail message from one UBS to a trader in 2008
says:

<QUOTE>"I need you to keep it [Libor] as low as possible. If
you do that ... I’ll pay you, you know, $50,000, $100,000 ...
whatever you want ... I’m a man of my word."<END QUOTE>

According to former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan:

<QUOTE>"Through all of my experience, what I never
contemplated was that there were bankers who would purposely
misrepresent facts to banking authorities. You were honor bound
to report accurately, and it never entered my mind that, aside
from a fringe element, it would be otherwise. I was
wrong."<END QUOTE>

Greenspan is part of the Silent generation that survived the Great
Depression and World War II. The reason that he was wrong is because
he never dreamed that Generation-X would be so much more lacking
in ethics and morals than his own generation.

On Wednesday, the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) was fined $612 million
for "widespread misconduct" in the same Libor scandal. One RBS
employee jokingly texted: "I'm like a whores' drawers. I'll send
lunch around for everybody." The RBS traders were so stupid that they
continued rigging Libor even after the investigation had started.
Guardian (London) and Bloomberg

****
**** The moral bankruptcy of Libor-rigging traders
****

The stupidity, depravity and debauchery of the Libor-rigging traders
is so egregious, that the public may actually be catching on to what
happened. According to the Economist:

<QUOTE>"They were said to be among the most talented of their
generation, recruited after exhaustive interviews and grueling
internships. They worked at firms prepared to spend small fortunes
to attract and retain them lest they take their skills
elsewhere. Yet the moral bankruptcy of traders implicated in the
rigging of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), one of the
world’s most important interest rates, is matched only by the
incompetence with which they covered their tracks.

Take traders at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), who left a trail
of evidence in a trove of e-mails and audio recordings detailing
how they set about trying to manipulate LIBOR, even after they
knew investigators were looking into the issue. “We’re just not
allowed to have those conversations over Bloomberg anymore,” said
one trader, laughingly, in a call to another who a little earlier
had asked in writing for a rigged rate. “Its [sic] just amazing
how libor fixing can make you that much money,” was the verdict of
another trader. ...

The scandal has also hardened the views of regulators and
politicians."<END QUOTE>

If the views of regulators and politicians are really becoming
"hardened," then we can expect to see a lot more investigations and
prosecutions. The Economist

****
**** Ron Baron, Baron Capital, doubles down on lying about stock valuations
****


Ron Baron, Baron Capital (CNBC)

The Libor-rigging scandal is only a small part of the sickness that's
controlling Washington and Wall Street. Lying and fraud are the norm.
I've repeated named names of so-called "experts" who lie openly about
stock valuations. (See, for example, "14-Apr-12 World View -- Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations"
from earlier this year.) In today's
world, respectable people are gangsters, and gangsters are treated as
respectable people. One of those people whom I quoted lying
was Ron Baron, chairman and CEO of
Baron Capital. That was about a year ago.

Well, this week Baron was back on CNBC leaving me breathless
as he blurted one ridiculous statement after another. Here's
what he said (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"14,000 is where we were in the Dow Jones [Industrial
Average] in 2007, so it's been flat for five years. If you go
back further than that to 1999, you'll see that for the last 13
years, it happens to be the worst period in the financial history
of the united states. The market is up 20-30%, companies have
gone up in earnings 2 1/2 times. the reason that has happened was
because we started off in 1999 at 32 times earnings, we're now at
13 times earnings. So if you go back 100 years, 200 years, 50
years, the stock market normally trades between 10 and 20 times
[earnings], and the median is 15 1/2. You're now 13, it was 32 -
that's the highest it's ever been. So the market is now at an
attractive level, compared to its median for a very long period of
time. ...

We've been through civil wars, we've been through world wars,
we've been through depressions, deflations, inflations, and yet
the stock market has grown 7% a year for 100 years, 200 years, and
so do I think it's gonna change over the next 20 years or 30
years, no. And just every now and then you go through these
periods of time where not much happens it happened - I started my
career in 1970, between 1966 and 1982, the stock market traded
between 1000 and 600, and then in March of 1982, we started Baron
Capital, the Dow is 880, and in August of that year, went to 1000,
and went on the way to 14000. What I think is the same sorta
thing is gonna happen in the next 10 years maybe 20 years.
Everyone who works in my firm and they're gonna have the same
opportunities that I had in the 1980s and 1990s - they're about to
have it."<END QUOTE>

This is absolutely breathtaking in its erroneousness, since many
of the figures are lies.

• He says that the P/E ratio in 1999 was 32. That's absolutely
  right, and by quoting that figure, he's proving that he's using the
  standard definition of the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (using "one
  year reported earnings," not "future forward fantasy earnings.")
  
• He says that the P/E ratio is now 13. That's a lie. According to
  the Wall Street Journal last week, the current P/E ratio is 17.92.
  
  
  WSJ P/E ratio, Friday, February 1, 2013
  
  
  
• He says that it was 32 in 1999 and that was the "highest it's
  ever been." No, the highest it's ever been was in 2008, when it
  went over 100.
  
• He says that the historical median P/E ratio is 15 1/2. No,
  that's a lie. It's 14.
  
• He says that the market grows by 7% per year. No, that's another
  lie. I did that computation on my Dow Jones historical page, and the market grows by 4.5% per year, including
  inflation.
  
• He says that the current P/E ratio is 13, and concludes that
  the market is underpriced, same as in 1982. No, that's another
  lie. In 1982, it was at 6.79, which is very low. Today it's
  at 17.92, which is far above the historical average.
  
• So he says that stock market will grow in the next 10 years the
  way it did in the years after 1982. That's a calamitous
  miscalculation. As I've written many times, the P/E ratio has been
  well above average continuously since 1995, and by the Law of Mean
  Reversion, the market will crash to below Dow 3000, as the P/E ratio
  returns to its 1982 level. (See "1-Jan-13 World View -- 2013 Forecast: Financial Crisis and China Threat"
  )

So what should we make of this breathtaking display of stupidity? Is
Ron Baron just another debauched Libor-rigging crook who thinks it's
fun to defraud anyone for his own personal gain? Or is he so stupid
that he's unable to do long division, and is unable to figure out how
to divide price by earnings to get the P/E ratio? Well, Dear Reader,
whether it's crook or stupidity, this is not a person you should trust
your money with.

You have to remember, Dear Reader, that the Libor-rigging scandal was
not some unique circumstance. It's characteristic of the entire
financial and political culture today, in Washington and on Wall
Street, where massive fraud and screwing people is perfectly OK if you
can get away with it. And we've all barely begun to pay the price.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Standard & Poors Financial Services,
Department of Justice, Royal Bank of Scotland, Libor rigging,
Alan Greenspan, Wharton School, Jeremy Siegel, Ron Baron

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*** 9-Feb-13 World View -- Comments and questions on the Libor-rigging scandal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong's poor people live in metal cages
• Panetta: A cyber attack may be the next Pearl Harbor
• Comments and questions on the Libor-rigging scandal
• Generation-Xers versus Boomers
• Egypt's PM warns women to clean their breasts

****
**** Hong Kong's poor people live in metal cages
****


62-year-old Cheng Man Wai lies in his home, 16 sq. ft. cage (AP)

Hong Kong is one of Asia's wealthiest cities, but real estate prices
have surged 25% in the last year alone, with rental prices following
suit, putting a decent home out of reach of hundreds of thousands of
the poorest. For many of them, this means living in a small metal
cage in an apartment that's been subdivided with as many metal cages
as can be made to fit. Cage homes originally sprang up in the 1950s
to cater to single men coming in from mainland China. AP

****
**** Panetta: A cyber attack may be the next Pearl Harbor
****

Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta is warning that cyber attacks are a
primary threat to U.S. national security, with a potential "crippling"
effect on government, financial and commercial networks. According to
Panetta,

<QUOTE>"The developments that have taken place in the cyber
arena have been incredible over these last 10 years. ... I
believe that it is very possible the next Pearl Harbor could be a
cyber attack ... [that] would have one hell of an impact on the
United States of America. That is something we have to worry about
and protect against."<END QUOTE>

U.S. Dept of Defense

****
**** Comments and questions on the Libor-rigging scandal
****

I received a lot of comments on yesterday's article, "8-Feb-13 World View -- Libor-rigging scandal and lying on Wall Street"
.

<QUOTE>"Thank you for all your hard work on your site. I
really enjoy it. I have a quick thought on the lawsuit against
S&P. It is my belief that the prosecution is politically motivated
rather than generationally motivated. I understand that the two
are not mutually exclusive but remember that S&P was the first
firm to downgrade US debt. This may be payback for do so before
the elections or in defiance of an order from this administration.
From what I've seen; if you make friends with the administration,
then all your legal troubles seem to go away. On the contrary,
when you fight the administration, your legal troubles seem to
compound. Did Putin teach our administration how to use the law
for political advantage?"<END QUOTE>

Apparently a lot of people believe that the administration brought
charges against S&P Financial Services (as opposed to Moody's or
Fitch) for purely political reasons, because S&P lowered the
U.S. credit rating during President Obama's reelection campaign.
Apparently even Democrats agree that this is a possibility (though
they're willing to forgive it, while Republicans are not). It's a
reflection of how the Administration seems willing to break any law
that the public is so willing to believe something like this.

However, there have been a number of news stories suggesting that the
Administration is close to bringing a similar charge against Moody's,
which did exactly the same thing. If no such charge is forthcoming,
then suspicion will grow that the charges against S&P were indeed
politically motivated. We'll see.

<QUOTE>"Standard & Poors is not a Bank. No person is being
prosecuted. No corporation is being prosecuted. No serious
criminal investigation of the fraud has been announced... And it
has been more than six years since the whistle blowers came
forward with documentation. A civil suit does not carry the
threat of 30 years in jail, that causes little fish to tell all
and expand the investigations to other corporations and bigger
fish."<END QUOTE>

I had suggested that perhaps things were changing, and that now that
the election was over, bankers that had committed fraud, causing
the financial crisis, would finally be prosecuted. However, it's
true that the S&P charges don't really change anything. It's still
true today that nobody has been criminally charged, and no American
banker has even been civilly charged.

When I suggested that things were changing, I was referring to a
trend. Let me put this into context:

• In 2002-3, I started talking about a big stock market
  bubble.
• In 2004, I started talking about a real estate bubble.
• In 2005, I started talking about a credit bubble.
• In 2006, I started talking about a deflating real estate
  bubble.
• In 2007, I started talking about apparent fraud by investment
  banks.

In each of these cases, I was referring to an apparent trend that
wasn't being recognized by the public in general. For example, it was
only in 2010 that mainstream economists finally started admitting that
there was a real estate bubble in 2006.

So that's what I'm talking about now. A year ago, there was no sign
at all of bringing charges for the financial crisis. But the
Libor-rigging scandal was so egregious that it's no longer possible
for the Administration to avoid bring charges. They may still be
loathe to charge their banker pals with anything, but I'm seeing
a trend where they're going to be increasingly forced to do so,
whether they want to or not.

****
**** Generation-Xers versus Boomers
****

<QUOTE>"I notice that you rant very hard against the GenXers
as a category but seem to leave the Boomers off the hook as a
category. Ron Baron is clearly a Boomer as were all the principal
propagandists for the legitimacy of the scams. After all,
abstract rhetorical arguments are what Boomers excel in. The
GenXer desperado/nihilistic/self-destructive ruthlessness is
definitely a key component, but so too is the narcissistic
air-headedness of the Boomers coupled with their bogus,
anti-historical, anti-mathematical rhetorical flourishes. In
fact, the Boomers were the ones in charge during the ascent of the
GenXers. It is true that the GenXers would play on the
messianism, greed and ego of the Boomers in advancing their
schemes. But the Boomers were where the buck stopped; and still
where the buck stops today. So to only blame the devious Xers is
to imply that the Boomers were innocent just because they were
naive idiots who just happened to be egomaniacal and
greedy."<END QUOTE>

I didn't go into the subject of Boomers versus Gen-Xers in yesterday's
article, but I've written many times in the past that the Boomers are
just as criminal as the Xers. Also, I suggested that Baron was a liar
or a crook in the full knowledge that he was a Boomer.

I've been writing about generational theory for over ten years now,
and today I have few doubts left about the relationship between the
Boomers and Xers. The key to understanding is the difference between
the 1990s tech bubble and the 2000s credit bubble. The Boomers
brought about the 1990s tech bubble by making incredibly stupid
investments, because the Silents were no longer around to tell them to
be risk averse. However, the tech bubble was caused by stupidity, not
by fraud. The Gen-Xers brought about the disastrous credit bubble by
purposely defrauding investors. The Boomers went along with it,
because they used to do what the Silents told them to do, and now they
do what the Xers tell them to do. The Boomers are amoral,
while the Xers are immoral.

In the past ten years, I've personally seen one incredibly stupid and
destructive decision after another made by Gen-Xers in the computer
industry, simply because the Xers hate the Boomers. And perhaps
theoretically "the buck stops here" with the Boomers, but in actual
practice what I've seen is that the Boomers do nothing except to go
along with these incredibly destructive decisions. (After all, the
Boomers just want to be loved by the Xers -- or laid.)

And the same is true in politics in Washington, and in finance on Wall
Street. The Gen-Xers in the Administration and the Congress make
incredibly destructive decisions, and the senior politicians just go
along with them. If I'm not mistaken, all the people on Wall Street
whom I've called crooks and liars have been Boomers, but they all get
their fallacious data from their Gen-X staffers.

Last year, I wrote about the "The Metastasis of Corruption"
-- how the corruption and
fraud began with the Gen-Xers in the early 2000s because of their
hatred of Boomers, and how it metastasized to the point where almost
everyone in Washington and on Wall Street appears to be corrupt. I
compared this to 1930s Germany, where corruption began with Germany's
Lost Generation because of their hatred of the "Missionary
Generation," but then it metastasized into hatred of the Jews, as
representatives of the Missionaries, and into a full-fledge Holocaust.

This is exactly the kind of process that's going on today in
Washington and in Beijing, and the result is going to be calamitous
for everyone.

****
**** Egypt's PM warns women to clean their breasts
****

Egypt's Prime Minister Hisham Qandil is warning women about the
dangers of "unclean" breasts. In a speech, he referred emotionally to
rural areas of the country where he saw the suffering of newborns
having to deal with diarrhea after being breast fed. The prime
minister claimed that the reason behind the diarrhea epidemic in rural
Egypt is that some female villagers are too ignorant to clean their
breasts before feeding their babies. Al-Bawaba (Jordan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, China, Leon Panetta,
cyber war, Pearl Harbor, libor rigging,
S&P Financial Services, Moody's, Fitch,
Boomers, Generation-X, Lost Generation, Missionary Generation,
Germany, Holocaust, Egypt, Hisham Qandil

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Originally Posted by TimWalker

How things play out would depend on who is fighting who. For example, in a major conflict between Russia and Muslims I doubt that Russia would invade Western Europe. Also, China has been building asymetric means to sink the U.S. Navy in the Western Pacific.

There are numerous prophecies that indicate a russian invasion of europe that culminates in a unprecented final battle at the rhine river. This may also be accompanied by an invasion of the middle east that is halted at the gates of jerusalem. According to various german prophets china invades and conquers siberia after the defeat of the russian armies in europe.

*** 10-Feb-13 World View -- Arab Spring destabilization increases with Tunisia crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tunisia's government crisis grows with pro-government rally
• Growing tensions in Tunisia reflect the fault line across the 'Arab Spring'
• Food fraud surges in America and Europe

****
**** Tunisia's government crisis grows with pro-government rally
****


Ennahda supporters hold up Tunisian flag on Saturday (AFP)

Thousands of supporters of Tunisia's governing Islamist party Ennahda
("Renaissance") marched in Tunis, the capital city, on Saturday,
chanting pro-Ennahda slogans, many carrying the Ennahda flag.

There were large "riots and clashes with police on Wednesday,"
after word spread that
popular secular leader and outspoken left-wing government critic
Chokri Belaid was shot dead in the morning with three bullets fired
from close range. There were larger riots on Friday, the day of
Belaid's funeral, with protesters accusing the Ennahda party of
responsibility for the murder.

So Saturday was a pro-Ennahda demonstration to counter the
anti-government demonstrations of the preceding three days. There was
a large anti-France component to Saturday's demonstrations, with
protesters accusing the French of behaving like a colonial power
again, especially after France's Interior Minister Manuel Valls warned
of rising "Islamist fascism" in Tunisia.

Ennahda has repeatedly denied any responsibility for Belaid's murder.
The party's leader, Rached Ghannouchi, even threatened lawsuits
against anyone who accused Ennahda of the murder. VOA and Euro News

****
**** Growing tensions in Tunisia reflect the fault line across the 'Arab Spring'
****

Tunisia and its "Jasmine Revolution" has been considered the model of
the Arab Spring. The long-time dictator President Zine al Abidine Ben
Ali stepped down from power peacefully, and there were democratic
elections in October 2011, bringing the Ennahda party to power. The
Ennhada party is usually described as a "moderate Islamist" party, to
distinguish it from the secularists on one side, and the conservative
Salafists on the other side. But there have been several acts of
violence against secularists and artists, culminating in Belaid's
murder, and the suspicion has been growing that Ennahda's claim of
being "moderate" is really just a show to gain support from the West,
and that Ennahda is really in league with the Salafists after all.

These tensions are splitting Tunisia's government itself. Tunisia's
prime minister Hamadi Jebali has proposed replacing his government
with a "technocrat" government of ministers with no party affiliation,
to govern the country through the current crisis, until new elections
can be called. However, Saturday's pro-Ennahda demonstrators demanded
that the Islamists remain in power, and ministers in Jebali's
government are refusing to relinquish power. Jebali has threatened to
step down if the "technocrat" proposal is rejected.

There is a growing political fault line growing in Tunisia, and it's
the same fault line that's growing in other Arab Spring countries.
It's not a fault line between Muslims versus Jews and Christians.
It's a fault line between moderate Islamists versus radical Islamists.
We're seeing this in Mali, in Libya, in Egypt, and in Palestine, with
a Shia Alawite versus Sunni fault line in Syria.

When the Arab Spring began, it was hoped by the Pollyannaish Western
dreamers that it would bring freedom and democracy to the Mideast.
That was never a possibility, with much of the Mideast in a
generational Crisis era. Instead, what we're seeing is a steady,
continuing increase in instability across the region that will, at
some point, descend into total war. AFP and BBC

****
**** Food fraud surges in America and Europe
****

A major food scandal is spreading across Europe with the discovery,
verified through DNA tests, that many ready-made meals, such as
beefburgers or lasagna, contain horsemeat rather than beef. The Brits
are blaming it on a French supplier, Findus. Findus is blaming it on
another French supplier, Comigel. Comigel is blaming it on a supplier
in Romania. Britain's environment secretary Owen Paterson said that
the scandal was caused by gross incompetence, or by an international
criminal conspiracy. Guardian and Food Business News

At the same time, the non-profit U.S. Pharmacopeial Convention has
found a huge increase in food fraud in the United States since 2010.
Fraud is a significant problem in seafood, while olive oil, milk,
saffron, honey and coffee were also affected. Food fraud refers
deliberate substitution of ingredients in food, or deliberate
mislabeling of food ingredients. Food Business News

This comes after thousands of babies got sick in 2008 because Chinese
milk producers added melamine, an industrial chemical used to make
plastics and fertilizer, to their milk products, in order to give the
appearance of higher protein levels. (See "A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster"
from 2008.) As we've recently reported,
China mainland mothers are still
distrustful of milk powder and baby formula manufactured in China, and
so they're buying these products from Hong Kong, creating a shortage
for mothers there.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tunisia, Tunis, Ennahda,
Chokri Belaid, France, Manuel Valls,
Rached Ghannouchi, Jasmine Revolution, Arab Spring,
Salafists, food fraud, U.S. Pharmacopeial Convention

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*** 11-Feb-13 World View -- Ethnic tensions grow in Kenya as March 4 elections approach

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Surprise rebel attack in Gao signals resurgence of Mali violence
• Iran and Hizbollah build militia networks in Syria
• Ethnic tensions grow in Kenya as March 4 elections approach

****
**** Surprise rebel attack in Gao signals resurgence of Mali violence
****


War-ravaged helicopter in Gao on Sunday (AFP)

Two weeks ago, France's president François Hollande declared "mission
accomplished," after French troops regained control of several cities
from the jihadists and rebels, with barely any casualties. Many
reports suggested that the rebels had simply fled to their bases to
regroup for a counterattack, and on Sunday a counterattack began in
Gao, the largest city in northern Mali. Black-robed Islamic
extremists armed with AK-47 automatic rifles invaded Gao in wooden
boats Sunday to launch a surprise attack that included two suicide
bombings. Gunfights are continuing into Sunday night. Many of the
rebels have combat experience from the war in Libya, and are
well-armed, thanks to the stores of weapons stolen from Libya. By the
end of March, France wants to hand over responsibility to the Malian
army, supported by troops donated by neighboring countries. Whether
that actually happens will depend on how successful the counterattacks
are. AP

****
**** Iran and Hizbollah build militia networks in Syria
****

An unnamed Obama administration intelligence official says that Iran
is backing as many as 50,000 militiamen in Syria, supplying them with
money and weapons. Syria is an important client of Iran, and the
Lebanon-based terror group Hizbollah is also an important client.
Iran and Hizbollah are setting up the militias to provide contingency
plans in case Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has to step down.
Right now, the militias are fighting alongside al-Assad's army, but if
he's forced to step down, then the plan is to create an enclave in
northwest Syria under control of Iran and Hizbollah. This would
provide an Iran-controlled supply route from the sea into Lebanon, so
that Hizbollah could continue to control Lebanon politics. Washington Post

****
**** Ethnic tensions grow in Kenya as March 4 elections approach
****

After Kenya's last presidential election, in 2007, an outbreak of
ethnic violence killed than 1,200 people, and many thousands were
driven from their homes. (See "Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war"
.) Now many Kenyans are dreading a new presidential
election on March 4, because there may be a new outbreak of ethnic
violence. There's already been one recent bloody ethnic massacre
( "22-Dec-12 World View -- Ethnic revenge massacre in Kenya kills 41"
.) Even business is
affected, as Ugandan traders are shifting from Kenya's sea port to
Tanzania's more distant sea port.

There's a really bizarre overlay to the election: One of the
presidential candidates, Uhuru Kenyatta, has been charged with crimes
against humanity, and is due to face trial in the International
Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague in April. With this trial
approaching, it suddenly seems that dozens of Kenyan witnesses who
were expected to testify at the trial have been disappearing and are
presumed dead. These disappearances are only adding to the ethnic
tensions that already exist throughout the country. Kenya's last
generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that climaxed in
1956, 57 years ago. It's fairly common for a new crisis war to begin
around the 58-year point following the climax of the preceding crisis
war, as that's the point where the survivors of the preceding crisis
war almost completely lose their influence. BBC and Independent (Uganda)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Gao, France, François Hollande, Libya,
Iran, Hizbollah, Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad,
Kenya, Uganda, Uhuru Kenyatta, International Criminal Court

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*** 12-Feb-13 World View -- Strengthened euro currency raises fears of 'currency wars'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Quantitative easing in U.S., Japan raises concerns of 'currency wars'
• Strengthened euro currency raises tensions
• Hugo Chávez devalues Venezuela's bolivar currency by 32%

****
**** Quantitative easing in U.S., Japan raises concerns of 'currency wars'
****


Venezuela's bolivar currency was devalued by 32%

Many historians believe that America's 1931 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Law,
designed to "save American jobs" by making it expensive to import
previously cheap goods from other countries, like Germany or Japan.
Instead of saving American jobs, the law triggered retaliatory tariff
wars around the world, dramatically reducing the amount of world trade
between countries, actually costing jobs.

Today's politicians are very well aware of what happened in the 1930s,
and, except for a few skirmishes, have avoided imposing trade tariffs
during the current financial crisis. However, human nature being what
it is, there's concern that countries are trying to do the same thing
in a different way, by devaluing their currencies. A central bank
does this by "turning on the printing presses" and using techniques
such as quantitative easing to make more money available. If one
country does this, then its currency will become cheaper relative to
the currencies of other countries, and this will improve exports,
since that country's manufactured goods will be cheaper in other
countries. For example, America's Federal Reserve has been flooding
the markets with $85 billion per month in new "printed" money, and
plans to continue doing so for a while. Japan's central bank has said
that it plans to do something similar. Of course, if all countries
devalue their currencies, then you have "currency wars," and no one
benefits. Bloomberg

****
**** Strengthened euro currency raises tensions
****

Talk of "currency wars" has been increasing because the euro currency
is gaining strength against other currencies. On Monday, the value of
a euro rose to $1.34, when it was close to $1.20 not too many months
ago. This is making European exports extremely expensive in America,
while making American exports cheap in Europe. It's also splitting
the euro zone countries down the middle, along the same lines as the
split over bailing out Greece and Spain. France and the southern
countries want the European Central Bank (ECB) to "print" a lot more
money to bail out countries that need it, devaluing the euro currency
at the same time. But Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and
Luxembourg and opposed to bigger bailouts and also to devaluing the
euro. Reuters

****
**** Hugo Chávez devalues Venezuela's bolivar currency by 32%
****

Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez, who is recovering from cancer
surgery in Havana, ordered his government to weaken the exchange
rate for the bolivar currency to 6.3 bolivars per dollar from
4.3 bolivars per dollar. This is the fifth devaluation in nine
years, and it follows a spending spree last year that helped
Chávez win reelection, but also tripled the fiscal deficit and
increased inflation.

The devaluation, which was announced on Friday and is effective on
Wednesday, is already having dramatic effects. Venezuelans
experienced panic buying of televisions and airline tickets over the
weekend, and also stocked up on groceries for fear that
inflation-based food price increases. The weaker exchange rate will
give the central government an additional 84.5 billion bolivars ($13.4
billion) in revenue, mostly from oil sales done in dollars. On the
other hand, foreign companies that sell products in Venezuela can
expect a sharp decline in earnings, when their sales in bolivars are
converted back to dollars. This includes a wide range of companies,
including Avon Products, Coca-Cola, and Mexico-based Gruma SAB, the
world's largest tortilla maker. Analysts said that while the latest
devaluation was expected and necessary, it still did not bring the
official exchange rate anywhere close to the black market, meaning yet
another round of devaluations was likely before long. Bloomberg and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Smoot-Hawley Tariff law, Japan, Germany,
quantitative easing, France, European Central Bank,
Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, bolivar currency

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*** 13-Feb-13 World View -- North Korea announces successful nuclear test

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea announces successful nuclear test
• U.N. Security Council condemns North Korea nuclear test
• David Einhorn seeks to undermine Apple Computer

****
**** North Korea announces successful nuclear test
****


North Koreans celebrate rocket launch on Dec. 12, 2012 (AP)

North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)
issued he following English language statement on Tuesday:

<QUOTE>"The scientific field for national defense of the DPRK
[Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] succeeded in the third
underground nuclear test at the site for underground nuclear test
in the northern part of the DPRK on Tuesday. The test was carried
out as part of practical measures of counteraction to defend the
country’s security and sovereignty in the face of the ferocious
hostile act of the U.S. which wantonly violated the DPRK’s
legitimate right to launch satellite for peaceful purposes.

The test was conducted in a safe and perfect way on a high level
with the use of a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous
ones, yet with great explosive power. ...

The nuclear test will greatly encourage the army and people of the
DPRK in their efforts to build a thriving nation with the same
spirit and mettle as displayed in conquering space, and offer an
important occasion in ensuring peace and stability in the Korean
Peninsula and the region."<END QUOTE>

The significance of the phrase "smaller and light A-bomb" is that, if
true, it means that they have tested a nuclear bomb that's small
enough to fit into long-range missile. The North Koreans have
previously said that the intended target of their nuclear missile
weapons is the United States. AFP

****
**** U.N. Security Council condemns North Korea nuclear test
****

The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting
on Tuesday, and came out of the meeting issuing strong condemnations
of the North Korean nuclear test. They backed up their condemnations
with an explicit threat: If North Korea doesn't end its nuclear
test program, then the United Nations Security Council will hold
another meeting.

It remains to be seen whether the Security Council will do anything
more. China has repeatedly expressed strong disapproval of North
Korea's nuclear tests, and recently threatened trade sanctions if the
North Koreans went ahead with the test. However, China has always
backed down in the past, since their main fear is an unstable North
Korea that will send potentially hundreds of thousands of refugees
across the border into China. CS Monitor

****
**** David Einhorn seeks to undermine Apple Computer
****


David Einhorn being interviewed on CNBC on Feb. 7

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn, president of Greenlight Capital,
is suing Apple Computer because Apple Computer has too much
cash on its balance sheet, and Einhorn would like a piece of
that cash. In an interview on CNBC last week, here's what
he said (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Let me tell you what I think is going on here. Apple
is a phenomenal company, it's filled with talented people,
creating iconic products that consumers around the world love.
But Apple has a problem, which is, it has a cash problem.

It has sort of a mentality of a depression. In other words,
people who've gone thru traumas, and Apple's gone thru a couple of
traumas in its history, they sometimes feel that they can just
never have enough cash.

I remember my grandma, she was depression era for her childhood,
and she wouldn't even leave me a message on my answering machine
so I could call her back, because she didn't want to get charged
for the phone call. And that's kind of the way that people's
attitudes sometimes are, once they've been thru this.

So we've been thinking about Apple carefully. and we recognize
that the company wants to have a very large cash hoard, they wanna
have it in case bad things happen, they wanna have it so
that they can be strategic, they wanna have it so that they can do
acquisitions if they wanted to.

And this has been building up to a large number over quite some
time. And what we thought about is that we came up with what we
think is a solution, where Apple can maintain its cash, and its
strategic flexibility and its comfort money and its war chest, and
at the same, shareholders can receive the value that is embedded
within the balance sheet."<END QUOTE>

This is amusing because a lot of people who read my Generational
Dynamics web site also have a "depression era mentality," and many of
those people wish that the federal government did so as well, and not
spend the country into trillions more in debt.

Whatever Apple's motivation for maintaining a "very large cash hoard,"
Apple is doing the right thing. A financial crisis will leave Apple
in good shape to survive, while other companies will go bankrupt, and
people like Einhorn will lose everything and end up jumping out of
windows (alluding, again, to a depression era mentality).

This example is instructive. Gen-X hedge fund manager David Einhorn
doesn't give a sh-t about the shareholders whose interest he claims to
be representing, but he undoubtedly expects to make millions for
himself from this deal. Einhorn is contemptuous of his own
grandmother, and he's contemptuous of Apple for wanting to preserve
cash at a time of financial crisis. He sees Apple as a juicy plum
that he can pluck and cripple for his own financial gain. This
anecdote shows many of the dynamics that created the financial crisis,
and are making the financial crisis worse every day. Anyone with
money is a potential target in this culture of fraud and corruption.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, China, United Nations,
Security Council, David Einhorn, Apple Computer

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

**** David Einhorn seeks to undermine crcrapple Computer
****


David Einhorn being interviewed on CNBC on Feb. 7

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn, president of Greenlight Capital,
is suing apple Computer because apple Computer has too much
cash on its balance sheet, and Einhorn would like a piece of
that cash. In an interview on CNBC last week, here's what
he said (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"Let me tell you what I think is going on here. apple
is a phenomenal company, it's filled with talented people,
creating iconic products that consumers around the world love.
But apple has a problem, which is, it has a cash problem.

It has sort of a mentality of a depression. In other words,
people who've gone thru traumas, and crcrapple's gone thru a couple of
traumas in its history, they sometimes feel that they can just
never have enough cash.

I remember my grandma, she was depression era for her childhood,
and she wouldn't even leave me a message on my answering machine
so I could call her back, because she didn't want to get charged
for the phone call. And that's kind of the way that people's
attitudes sometimes are, once they've been thru this.

So we've been thinking about crcrapple carefully. and we recognize
that the company wants to have a very large cash hoard, they wanna
have it in case bad things happen, they wanna have it so
that they can be strategic, they wanna have it so that they can do
acquisitions if they wanted to.

And this has been building up to a large number over quite some
time. And what we thought about is that we came up with what we
think is a solution, where crcrapple can maintain its cash, and its
strategic flexibility and its comfort money and its war chest, and
at the same, shareholders can receive the value that is embedded
within the balance sheet."<END QUOTE>

This is amusing because a lot of people who read my Generational
Dynamics web site also have a "depression era mentality," and many of
those people wish that the federal government did so as well, and not
spend the country into trillions more in debt.

Whatever rapple's motivation for maintaining a "very large cash hoard,"
rapple is doing the right thing. A financial crisis will leave rapple
in good shape to survive, while other companies will go bankrupt, and
people like Einhorn will lose everything and end up jumping out of
windows (alluding, again, to a depression era mentality).

This example is instructive. Gen-X hedge fund manager David Einhorn
doesn't give a sh-t about the shareholders whose interest he claims to
be representing, but he undoubtedly expects to make millions for
himself from this deal. Einhorn is contemptuous of his own
grandmother, and he's contemptuous of apple for wanting to preserve
cash at a time of financial crisis. He sees apple as a juicy plum
that he can pluck and cripple for his own financial gain. This
anecdote shows many of the dynamics that created the financial crisis,
and are making the financial crisis worse every day. Anyone with
money is a potential target in this culture of fraud and corruption.

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, China, United Nations,
Security Council, David Einhorn, crcrapple Computer

GenX, again? John should refrain from putting an entire generation in one box.

However, Einhorn is a dunce. Hey Einhorn, Apple already pays a dividend and you want them to issue some weird debt based securities? Yeah, I know they manufacture tripe, but at least their CFO knows his/ stuff. Apple would be a buy for me if their stock, like 99% of the rest of stocks are wildly overpriced. Also, I wouldn't buy their tripe because it's overpriced and subject to the "all your, Ishits are belong to us - hakorz." problem. Lots of devices, most on the internet, and nil security. Yummy.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

> GenX, again? John should refrain from putting an entire generation
> in one box.

Box or not, Gen-Xers, Boomers and Silents have very different
attitudes towards money, as Einhorn's statement shows.