Originally Posted by Copperfield

I wonder who the Cyprus government fears more; the European Union uber-bankers or the Russian mob?

In either case, they have the main quality in common with all the rest of their first-world peer governments -- they sure as hell don't fear their own people. So far, that confidence, at least, hasn't once in the last hundred-plus years been the slightest bit misplaced.

Originally Posted by Copperfield

Cyprus gets poverty and servitude either way. I mean it's not like the politicians and bankers won't get their money in the end.

They didn't in Iceland, and that could be a model for the Cypriots ... though the stupid Euro adds more complications to the mix.

Originally Posted by Copperfield

Nice of those "advanced Europeans" to show us how to quickly and efficiently seize private property eh?

I think a more appropriate question might be got ammo? Of course citizens of Cyprus probably don't or won't have that luxury (certainly not after the government cleans out their accounts) so perhaps an even more appropriate question would be got molotov?

I suppose its good to see the plan out in the open for all to see (not that many will notice). The next few days promise to be interesting for the few paying attention.

They will need oil and gas for the moltov cocktails. What ius the prioce of gas in Cyprus?

It sounds like the government mightback off though.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

Gee, those things look cool! Now, this has me wondering about this thing I did as a kid. I accidentally found out gasoline will sort of dissolve styrofoam. So's I gathered up a bunch of styrofoam, put it in a Crisco can and tossed in the gasoline and made something that looked like putty. Then... I sez to myself, syrofoam unto itself burns and makes lots of pretty black smoke. Now I have this putty shit that's part styrofoam and gasoline. I wonders to meself, hmmm... what would happen if I sparked this stuff? Now, I spark it and this shit's really cool when burning. I gets the pretty black styrofoam smoke and nice pretty big huge fire from gasoline. To top it off, putty gets real gooey and spreads all over the place. So maybe pissed off Greeks can go make new improved Molotovs by use of styrofoam/gasoline combos. Then they'd get great big gasoline fires and make big messes via lots of black smoke like tire fires and big gooey messy burning styrofoam puddles. I don't think styrofoam procurement would be hard. They'd just need to raid some coffee shop or something.

NB. It was my job as a kid to go spark stuff. When I'd go visit my aunts in a small town outside of Amarillo, they'd have to use burn barrels. In exchange for foodies, it was my job to burn the trash. This was fine because everyone knows little boys like to make fires. It was also my job when we moved to the country to instead of "take out the trash", but burn it in our burn barrel. Finally, one of my aunts had an old yucky used tire which is a fire hazard if not gotten rid of in the windy Texas panhandle. She was unable to spark it and make it go away. She said that if I could spark it and make it go away, then I'd get some goodies. So's I gathered up some grass, a bit of wood and stuffed said tire with that. This combo of stuff was sufficient to spark the tire and make it go away. I got rewarded with goodies and lots of pretty black tire smoke. AND, it was also my job to spark dad's brush piles. If it rained or something, dad was unable to spark them, but I could. I could also make all wood in brush piles go bye-bye via special arrangement of sticks/limbs in brush piles. You see, arranging brush piles such that all of the wood goes bye-bye is an art unto itself.



Hmmm.... Might be worth a flier of buying some S&P put options. There'll be a tug of war between Bernanke Panky and Europe going to shit. The question will be whether market participants will cease licking Bernanke's ass long enough to see the shitstorm over in Europe. This sort of stuff is why I can't tell for sure what the stock market will do.

As I step away slowly.

Originally Posted by Copperfield

Nice of those "advanced Europeans" to show us how to quickly and efficiently seize private property eh?

I think a more appropriate question might be got ammo? Of course citizens of Cyprus probably don't or won't have that luxury (certainly not after the government cleans out their accounts) so perhaps an even more appropriate question would be got molotov?

Not a bad link. My personal favorite is the one (also from the Greeks) where the motorcycle cop tries to run down protesters and gets a warm lesson in humility. The good stuff.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Not a bad link. My personal favorite is the one (also from the Greeks) where the motorcycle cop tries to run down protesters and gets a warm lesson in humility. The good stuff.

I always enjoy that one.

The Greeks and South Koreans really know how to stage a protest. A lot of excellent, coordinated volleys and some big moments around 1:25 when a few riot cops (Greece I believe) get themselves cornered on a sidewalk.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Not a bad link. My personal favorite is the one (also from the Greeks) where the motorcycle cop tries to run down protesters and gets a warm lesson in humility. The good stuff.

Why didn't they use the "new and improved" molotov to spark the motorcycle tires and make a bunch of pretty black smoke?

Originally Posted by Wallace'88

They will need oil and gas for the moltov cocktails. What ius the prioce of gas in Cyprus?

That's another advantage of syrofoam. You can produce more molotovs by gathering styrofoam to lessen the mount of gasoline per molotov.

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

Why didn't they use the "new and improved" molotov to spark the motorcycle tires and make a bunch of pretty black smoke?

Patience, friend. It looks very much, in the footage-from-another-angle, like they did just that.

Originally Posted by Wallace 88

They will need oil and gas for the moltov cocktails. What ius the prioce of gas in Cyprus?

It sounds like the government mightback off though.

What the Cyprus government does at this point is nearly irrelevant. Keep in mind, the government forced a closure of every bank in the country until Thursday. When the government finally allows these banks to re-open, how many accounts in those banks do you suppose will have any money in them by Thursday afternoon?

*** 20-Mar-13 World View -- Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cyprus rejects European bailout without a single supporting vote
• California businesses hit with $120 million retroactive tax
• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons

****
**** Cyprus rejects European bailout without a single supporting vote
****


Protesters holds up protest signs in Nicosia, Cyprus (AP)

In a stunning rebuke to European politicians, including Cyprus's newly
elected president Nicos Anastasiades, Cyprus's parliament rejected the
terms of the proposed European bailout that would have levied a 6.7%
tax on all bank accounts with less than 100,000 euros, and 9.9% on
amounts above 100,000 euros. 36 members voted against the plan, while
18 abstained. Meanwhile, politicians have been pointing fingers at
each other, each claiming that it was somebody else's dumb idea to
confiscate the savings of widows and orphans.

Although it's still possible that the Europeans will cave and the ECB
will bail out Cyprus completely, a number of commentators are saying
that the most likely scenario now is that Cyprus will leave the euro
and -- get this -- might possibly replace it with the Russian ruble as
its official currency. The reason is that Cyprus's economy is
already overwhelmingly dominated by investments (and money
laundering) by Russian oligarchs.

The big jewel in play here is the offshore oil and gas fields
potentially worth many billions of dollars in the years to come.
Russia would like to have rights to those fields, and the Europeans
may give Cyprus a complete bailout in return for European control of
the fields. Reuters and FT Brussels Blog

****
**** California businesses hit with $120 million retroactive tax
****

California's tax authorities have announced that they're
re-interpreting a five-year-old tax law which gives a break for small
businesses that's given a lot of credit for promoting job growth and
investment, especially in high tech. California plans to send out tax
bills to companies that took advantage of the law, and demand $120
million in retroactive tax payments. Opponents are saying that the
re-interpretation is confiscation, like the confiscation of bank
savings accounts in Cyprus. Fox News

****
**** Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons
****

It is "highly probable" that chemical weapons have been used in
Syria. According to Syria's state-run news service Sana:

<QUOTE>"Terrorists launched a missile containing chemical
products into the region of Khan al-Assal in the province of
Aleppo, killing 15 people, mainly civilians."<END QUOTE>

There are a couple of problems with this claim, according to analysts.
First, the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has lied
frequently, blaming "terrorists" for its own actions, namely firing
missiles into homes and schools, massacring innocent mothers and
children, with the full support of the Russians. So it looks
like something we've seen dozens of times since this conflict
began: al-Assad makes a bloody attack on innocent civilians,
this time using chemical weapons, and then blames it on
"terrorists."

The second problem, according to analysts I heard, is that launching a
chemical weapons missile requires sophistication that the rebels don't
have, and that the regime does have.

The regime's use of chemical weapons comes a day after the regime's
warplanes attacked targets in Lebanon, threatening to expand the
war outside of Syria.

Initially, the Obama administration made a statement that there was no
evidence that the chemical weapons allegations were true, but the
chairman of the of the House Intelligence Committee says that there is
a "high probability" that chemical weapons were used.

The administration will now face a credibility test. President Obama
has said unequivocally in the past that the use of chemical weapons
would be a "red line" that, if crossed, would bring U.S. forces into
the war. If the chemical weapons charges are confirmed, that
statement will be tested. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades,
California, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, chemical weapons,
Lebanon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by Copperfield

What the Cyprus government does at this point is nearly irrelevant. Keep in mind, the government forced a closure of every bank in the country until Thursday. When the government finally allows these banks to re-open, how many accounts in those banks do you suppose will have any money in them by Thursday afternoon?

Apparently Cypriots are making major runs on ATMs right now. I'm surprised the banks aren't sending people out to disable them.

Originally Posted by Earl and Mooch

Apparently Cypriots are making major runs on ATMs right now. I'm surprised the banks aren't sending people out to disable them.

They already are disabled. You can't withdraw more than 700 euros from one account in a 24-hour period. On the scale at issue, that's as good as shut down.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

They already are disabled. You can't withdraw more than 700 euros from one account in a 24-hour period. On the scale at issue, that's as good as shut down.

At the current exchange rate, I'd guess that 700 Euros is what the average Cypriot has in the bank.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 20-Mar-13 World View -- Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cyprus rejects European bailout without a single supporting vote
• California businesses hit with $120 million retroactive tax
• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons

****
**** Cyprus rejects European bailout without a single supporting vote
****


Protesters holds up protest signs in Nicosia, Cyprus (AP)

In a stunning rebuke to European politicians, including Cyprus's newly
elected president Nicos Anastasiades, Cyprus's parliament rejected the
terms of the proposed European bailout that would have levied a 6.7%
tax on all bank accounts with less than 100,000 euros, and 9.9% on
amounts above 100,000 euros. 36 members voted against the plan, while
18 abstained. Meanwhile, politicians have been pointing fingers at
each other, each claiming that it was somebody else's dumb idea to
confiscate the savings of widows and orphans.

Although it's still possible that the Europeans will cave and the ECB
will bail out Cyprus completely, a number of commentators are saying
that the most likely scenario now is that Cyprus will leave the euro
and -- get this -- might possibly replace it with the Russian ruble as
its official currency. The reason is that Cyprus's economy is
already overwhelmingly dominated by investments (and money
laundering) by Russian oligarchs.

The big jewel in play here is the offshore oil and gas fields
potentially worth many billions of dollars in the years to come.
Russia would like to have rights to those fields, and the Europeans
may give Cyprus a complete bailout in return for European control of
the fields. Reuters and FT Brussels Blog

****
**** California businesses hit with $120 million retroactive tax
****

California's tax authorities have announced that they're
re-interpreting a five-year-old tax law which gives a break for small
businesses that's given a lot of credit for promoting job growth and
investment, especially in high tech. California plans to send out tax
bills to companies that took advantage of the law, and demand $120
million in retroactive tax payments. Opponents are saying that the
re-interpretation is confiscation, like the confiscation of bank
savings accounts in Cyprus. Fox News

****
**** Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons
****

It is "highly probable" that chemical weapons have been used in
Syria. According to Syria's state-run news service Sana:

<QUOTE>"Terrorists launched a missile containing chemical
products into the region of Khan al-Assal in the province of
Aleppo, killing 15 people, mainly civilians."<END QUOTE>

There are a couple of problems with this claim, according to analysts.
First, the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has lied
frequently, blaming "terrorists" for its own actions, namely firing
missiles into homes and schools, massacring innocent mothers and
children, with the full support of the Russians. So it looks
like something we've seen dozens of times since this conflict
began: al-Assad makes a bloody attack on innocent civilians,
this time using chemical weapons, and then blames it on
"terrorists."

The second problem, according to analysts I heard, is that launching a
chemical weapons missile requires sophistication that the rebels don't
have, and that the regime does have.

The regime's use of chemical weapons comes a day after the regime's
warplanes attacked targets in Lebanon, threatening to expand the
war outside of Syria.

Initially, the Obama administration made a statement that there was no
evidence that the chemical weapons allegations were true, but the
chairman of the of the House Intelligence Committee says that there is
a "high probability" that chemical weapons were used.

The administration will now face a credibility test. President Obama
has said unequivocally in the past that the use of chemical weapons
would be a "red line" that, if crossed, would bring U.S. forces into
the war. If the chemical weapons charges are confirmed, that
statement will be tested. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades,
California, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, chemical weapons,
Lebanon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

For the California tax one, that sounds like a winner. I'm sure people will come running to Cali now. They must be getting their advice from Eric the Green.

Originally Posted by Copperfield

What the Cyprus government does at this point is nearly irrelevant. Keep in mind, the government forced a closure of every bank in the country until Thursday. When the government finally allows these banks to re-open, how many accounts in those banks do you suppose will have any money in them by Thursday afternoon?

Whoops, make that until Tuesday now.

*** 21-Mar-13 World View -- Cyprus begs Russia for a bailout

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Obama and Netanyahu appear to agree on military action in Iran
• Debate over Iraq war continues on tenth anniversary
• Cyprus begs Russia for a bailout
• Turkey's Erdogan says that his comments on Zionism were misinterpreted

****
**** Obama and Netanyahu appear to agree on military action in Iran
****


Obama and Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday

In their joint press conference in Jerusalem on Wednesday, President
Barack Obama and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared
to agree that military action must be used to prevent Iran from having
a nuclear weapon. However, they appeared to differ on the timing.
Obama said:

<QUOTE>"A nuclear armed Iran would be a threat to the region,
a threat to the world and potentially an existential threat to
Israel,” Obama said. “Our policy is to prevent Iran from having a
nuclear weapon."<END QUOTE>

This would imply that military action would be taken only at the
last minute, just in time to prevent final development. However,
Netanyahu is demanding that Iran be stopped much earlier, before
it can produce the enriched uranium needed in a nuclear weapon.

As I've said many times in the past, my expectation is that we'll
never make a military attack on Iran. This is my personal view based
on a generational analysis: Iran is ruled by hardliner survivors of
the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, but most people under 30 are
pro-Western and have no particular desire to see Israel pushed into
the sea. Even if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, I can't see a
scenario where it would be used against Israel. And to repeat what
I've said before, in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran
will be allied with the West, including Israel, against China,
Pakistan and the Sunni countries. It's certainly possible that, in
the interim, Israeli leaders will panic and attack Iran, but my
expectation is that such an attack is unlikely. VOA and Ynet

****
**** Debate over Iraq war continues on tenth anniversary
****

With American forces gone from Iraq, Sunni militants in al-Qaeda in
Iraq are stepping up terrorist attacks on the Shia-led government, and
promised to go further.

At the same time, there's a lot of nonsense in the media about whether
we should have launched the 2003 ground invasion. The best
response to the nonsense is this quote from Tony Blair in 2010:

<QUOTE>"Sometimes what is important is not to ask the March
2003 question but to ask the 2010 question. Supposing we had
backed off this military action, supposing we had left Saddam and
his sons who were going to follow him in charge of Iraq, people
who had used chemical weapons, caused the death of over a million
people? What we now know is that he retained absolutely the intent
and the intellectual know-how to restart a nuclear and a chemical
weapons program when the inspectors were out and the sanctions
changed."<END QUOTE>

The only reason that we know that Saddam didn't have WMDs is because
of the ground invasion. Blair said that Saddam had "the intent" to
develop a nuclear and chemical weapons program. If it weren't for the
invasion, we still wouldn't know to this day, whether Saddam had or
was developing WMDs. Just as important, neither would Iran. So Iran
would have its own chemical weapons program to counter Iraq's, and
Wednesday's press conference with Obama and Netanyahu would have been
discussing a chemical weapons arms race between Iran and Iraq, in
addition to nuclear weapons development in Iran. (See "The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki."
from 2008.) Guardian (London)

****
**** Cyprus begs Russia for a bailout
****

Cyprus pleaded for help from Russia on Wednesday, the day after its
Parliament rejected the European bailout terms, without a single
supporter. However, the crisis appeared to deepen on Wednesday for
several reasons:

• Cyprus announced that banks will be closed until Tuesday, to
  avoid an immediate bank run and crash, and to buy time.
• European officials repeated that their bailout terms will not be
  softened.
• The European threatened to cut off liquidity to Cyprus's banks,
  which would force them into bankruptcy.
• The Russians say that no deal has been reached.

Moscow has its own interests in ensuring the survival of Cyprus's
banks, which have served as an offshore financial haven for Russian
businesses and individuals. Talk of Cyprus leaving the euro
currency continues. Cyprus Mail

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan says that his comments on Zionism were misinterpreted
****

Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that his remarks on
Zionism were being misinterpreted. Earlier this month, he said in an
interview:

<QUOTE>"As is the case for Zionism, anti-Semitism and
fascism, it is inevitable that Islamophobia be considered a crime
against humanity."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan has received harsh criticism for his remark, but on
Wednesday he said the following:

<QUOTE>"I know that my remarks created controversy, but no
one should misunderstand my statements. Everyone knows that my
criticism targeted certain critical issues, particularly Israeli
policies in Gaza,” Erdogan said in what is his first response to
criticism by the US, Israel and the European Union following his
earlier remarks. The prime minister added that he will continue to
make such criticisms until Israel recognizes the state of
Palestine.

On the other hand, we recognized and still recognize Israel as a
state within the 1967 boundaries. It should not be forgotten that
we have hosted in our country a number of Israeli presidents and
prime ministers as part of our peace efforts.

Turkey, like it did in the past, supports all international and
regional efforts for a just, lasting and comprehensive solution to
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict within the perspective of a
two-state solution. My several speeches openly condemning
anti-Semitism demonstrate my stance. In this regard, I stand
behind my speech in Vienna."<END QUOTE>

It's not clear to me that this statement will quell the criticism.
Zaman (Istanbul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Iran, Iraq, al-Qaeda, Tony Blair, Saddam Hussein,
Cyprus, Russia, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Zionism

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*** 22-Mar-13 World View -- Cognitive Dissonance and the 'Mideast Roadmap to Peace'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Barack Obama and the 'Mideast Roadmap to Peace'
• Cognitive dissonance and the 'Mideast Roadmap to Peace'
• Cyprus nears collapse after EU issues an ultimatum

****
**** Barack Obama and the 'Mideast Roadmap to Peace'
****


Palestinians protest Obama's visit to Ramallah on Thursday (Getty)

We're close to a very important ten-year anniversary that nobody is
going to remember but me: On May 1, it's the tenth anniversary of
President George Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace." I remember it
because I wrote my first major Generational Dynamics prediction at
that time, explaining why the Roadmap could not succeed. (See
"Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" from 2003)

Listening to President Obama in Jerusalem on Wednesday and in Ramallah
on Thursday, it might as well have been George W. Bush. I don't
believe that there was a single thing that I heard that was
substantively different from anything that I would have heard if Bush
were still President.

In particular, Obama had a major reversal in rhetoric regarding
settlements. In the past, he's called for an end to West
Bank settlements. Today, he said only that settlements were an
area of disagreement that would be solved only when the core
issues were resolved -- and the core issues were creating a
contiguous state of Palestine, and security for Israel.

I did hear some pro-Obama commentators spin this as a "turning
point" in Mideast peace, which is absurd. There was exactly
the same bubbly spin after Bush revealed his Roadmap to Peace.
But the most bubbly time was when Yasser Arafat died in November,
2004. The pundits, as well as President Bush, believed that
Arafat had been the only person standing in the way of Mideast peace,
and there were grins all around, in the belief that Mideast peace
was near. The grins turned into ebullience when Mahmoud Abbas
was elected as Palestinian leader. Ariel Sharon was also
ebullient, and agreed for Israel to withdraw from Gaza. You know
the rest. There was no Mideast peace, and there have been three
regional wars since then.

To the contrary, a number of Palestinians were protesting President
Obama's visit to Ramallah. Some are quoted as saying that President
Obama is worse than President Bush because Obama had raised everyone's
hopes with the Cairo speech in 2009, but has done nothing since then.

Obama made numerous absurd promises when he was running in 2008. He
said, "This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow
and our planet began to heal." He said he would be guided by facts,
not like President Bush, who was guided by ideology and ignored facts.
He would cure global warming, close Guantanamo, become friendly with
Iran and North Korea, bring a two-state solution to Palestinians and
Israelis, beat the Taliban and al-Qaeda, end the financial crisis,
reflate the real estate and stock market bubbles and provide universal
health care. He has not yet achieved a single one of these
objectives, and many of them are total failures.

I was not critical of Obama during the 2008 campaign, because I
assumed that his promises were the usual fatuous nonsense typical of
all politicians, and I expected him to become more sensible once the
election ended, assuming he won. But I was shocked when he doubled
down on his predictions after he won. What this showed was that he
actually believed the absurd promises he was making. McClatchy

****
**** Cognitive dissonance and the 'Mideast Roadmap to Peace'
****

The term "cognitive dissonance" refers to the mental problems that
occur when deeply held beliefs are contradicted by real life
events. The literature contains numerous examples of what happens.
Some of the most dramatic examples are Christians who adopt the
belief that Jesus Christ will return to earth on a certain day,
and then have to deal with the reality when it doesn't happen.

For example, suppose a group of people believe that Jesus Christ will
return on July 1, and that true believers will go to heaven, and the
rest will die. They give their possessions away, and gather on a
mountaintop, waiting for the return. July 2 comes, and they're still
on the mountaintop, waiting. At that point, research has shown that
they don't abandon their previous beliefs, but they double down on
them and adapt them -- they go out and become proselytizers. Where
previously they had kept their beliefs secret, and they now claim that
God has decided to give the world one more chance, and only believers
will survive.

This concept is important in Generational Dynamics theory, because
cognitive dissonance becomes the dominant psychological factor during
a generational Crisis era. After a generational Crisis era ends (such
as the end of WW II), everyone is pretty much united and realistic
about how the world works. Decades later, when the next crisis era
begins, there are opposing political camps that hold ideologies as
strong as those of the religious fanatics who gather on the
mountaintop. They invest in stocks or make other personal life
commitments based on their ideological beliefs. As shocks begin to
occur (financial collapses, regional wars, and other generational
"regeneracy" events), all of these core ideological beliefs are
challenged, causing cognitive dissonance.

A country is in a real crisis at this time, because the war is
combined with the mental conflicts that can almost paralyze many
people, including many leaders. One story that always sticks in my
mind is that when Hitler's Nazis invaded Russia, Stalin went into such
a state of shock that he was unable to function for a few weeks,
allowing Hitler to gain valuable time.

President Obama has shown flexibility so far, as one after another of
his core ideological beliefs have been destroyed by world events. His
reversal on Israeli settlements is a good example of that.


Inflation rate surges after Nixon imposes wage-price controls on August 15, 1971 (econreview.com)

There is one major example left: Obamacare. I condemned this proposal
when it was first made because it was a repeat of President Nixon's
wage-price controls, which were an economic disaster. Nixon's
wage-price controls were supposed to reduce inflation, but instead
inflation surged to historically high levels under the controls.
Obamacare was supposed to reduce health care costs, but instead health
care costs are already surging to historically high levels. Obamacare
is shaping up to be as much of an economic disaster as Nixon's
wage-price controls. Obama is thoroughly committed to seeing
Obamacare implemented. The typical cognitive dissonance behavioral
pattern indicates that he will do anything that he has the power to do
to force Obamacare to be implemented.

I've said hundreds of times that it's a basic principle of
Generational Dynamics that great events of history are not determined
by politicians or political policy or ideology. They're determined by
generational trends that are completely out of control of politicians.
The generational trends that I've been writing about for years are all
coming to pass, and there's nothing that Barack Obama or any other
politician can do to stop them. NPR

****
**** Cyprus nears collapse after EU issues an ultimatum
****

The generational trends that I've been writing about for Europe are
also unstoppable. Cyprus's government is preparing for the worst,
after the EU issued an ultimatum requiring Cyprus to raise 5.8 billion
euros by Monday, or face banking collapse when the European Central
Bank cuts off all liquidity to Cypriot banks. The original "Plan A"
proposal, now rejected, would have levied taxes on both small and
large bank depositors. Cyprus has begged Russia for bailout money,
but that avenue now appears closed. In a new "Plan B" proposal on
Thursday, the government proposed to parliament a "solidarity fund"
that would bundle state assets, including future gas revenues, as the
basis for an emergency bond issue, likened by JP Morgan to "a national
fire sale." Russia is considering the possibility of of investing in
the fund, either taking ownership of the banks, or buying rights to
offshore gas and oil fields. It's going to be a very tense weekend,
and a lot of people are saying that Cyprus might leave the euro
on Monday.
Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Barack Obama, George Bush,
Mideast Roadmap to Peace, cognitive dissonance,
Obamacare, Cyprus, Russia

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Lethal chemical weapons are one version of a "poor man's nukes." Lethal chemical weapons were a very nasty business during WWI (almost a century ago), and that was before the development of nerve gas.

*** 23-Mar-13 World View -- Obama negotiates Israeli apology to Turkey for flotilla incident

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cyprus may punish Russia for not bailing them out
• Generational Dynamics website attacked by hackers
• Obama negotiates Israeli apology to Turkey for flotilla incident
• Buddhist vs Muslim ethnic violence explodes in central Myanmar (Burma)

****
**** Cyprus may punish Russia for not bailing them out
****


Protesters in Cyprus: 'Better to die on your feet than to live on your knees'

Cyprus's government will be spending a long, tough weekend in
negotiations to prevent total collapse of the economy on Tuesday.
Cyprus has to find 6 billion euros to contribute to a bailout fund to
which the EU will provide a 10 billion euro loan. The original plan
was to tax small bank savers 6.7% of their savings, and to tax large
savers, with accounts above 100,000 euros, 9.9%. This was the
original "Plan A" formula, and it was adopted by Cyprus did not want
to go above a 10% haircut for the banks' Russian oligarch depositors.
The 6.7% tax for small savers has now been thrown out for good, as
accounts under 100,000 euros are supposed to be protected by deposit
insurance. To make up the difference, first Russia was asked to help
bail out Cyprus, but that deal collapsed completely on Friday. Also,
Cyprus is considering nationalizing its pension system. The Greek
Orthodox Church has also volunteered a large amount of real estate.
But those won't bring in nearly enough money. So that leaves only one
major source of money: The Russian oligarchs with billions of euros of
deposits in Cyprus banks. There is now talk of taxing large accounts
20-25%, which can only be viewed as punishment for Russia for not
helping Cyprus out when they had the chance. Kathimerini and Cyprus Mail

****
**** Generational Dynamics website attacked by hackers
****

The Generational Dynamics web site was attacked by hackers
on Friday and crashed. The site will be brought back up
over the weekend with limited functionality and content.
All content will be available again in a few days.

No data was lost from the Generational Dynamics forum.

I may have lost some e-mail messages sent to me on Friday.
Please consider re-sending any messages that you sent between
11 am and 7 pm ET.

As before, I apologize for any inconvenience.

****
**** Obama negotiates Israeli apology to Turkey for flotilla incident
****

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan scored a major diplomatic coup
on Friday when Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized
to Erdogan for the deaths of nine Turkish citizens in the 2010 Mavi
Marmara flotilla incident. The apology was mediated by U.S. President
Barack Obama as he ended his visit to the Mideast. The Mavi Marmara
was a boat in a flotilla that was launched to break Israel's sea
blockage of Gaza. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) boarded the
flotilla ships, and in the exchange of fire, the nine Turkish citizens
were killed. Erdogan cut diplomatic relations with Israel, and made
the following demands, which have now been addressed by Netanyahu's
apology:

• Erdogan demanded an apology. Netanyahu apologized for
  the loss of life and for the "operational errors" that caused
  them.
  
• Erdogan demanded compensation for the victims' families.
  Netanyahu agreed to set up a "humanitarian fund" from which
  compensation could be paid.
  
• Erdogan demanded that the blockade of Gaza be lifted. Netanyahu
  pointed out that Israel has already lifted some limitations, including
  the passage of goods and people to the Palestinian territories,
  including Gaza, and that this will continue as long as quiet is
  preserved.

Palestinian commentators condemned Erdogan's acceptance of the
apology, because there was effectively no change at all to the
status of the Gaza blockade.

The break in diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel has caused
problems for both countries. Israel has been facing increased
isolation throughout Europe, especially with Turkey which had been a
major trading partner. Turkey faced isolation as well, as became
apparent when Egypt and Turkey were mediating last year's war between
Israel and Hamas, and Erdogan had to bow out because he refused to
talk to the Israelis. The restoration of diplomatic relations will
allow closer cooperation on the Syria issue, and so it's probably a
bitter pill for Iran, Hizbollah and the Syrian regime. Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Jerusalem Post and Hurriet (Ankara)

****
**** Buddhist vs Muslim ethnic violence explodes in central Myanmar (Burma)
****


Smoke and flames billow from a burning building (AP)

Officials have declared a state of emergency in Meikhtila in central
Myanmar after three days of ethnic violence between Buddhist monks and
Muslims. Troubles began on Wednesday after an argument broke out
between a Muslim gold shop owner and his Buddhist customers. A
Buddhist monk was among the first killed, inflaming tensions that led
a Buddhist mob to rampage through a Muslim neighbourhood. At least
6,000 Muslims have fled their homes and taken refuge in a stadium.
Meikhtila is a majority Muslim city in the majority Buddhist nation of
Burma. Relations between Muslims and Buddhists have been cordial for
decades, but tensions have been increasing since last year's incident
in Rakhine state in southeast Burma, where Buddhists massacred
Rohingya Muslims who had arrived in decades past from Bangladesh.
AP

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cyprus, Russia,
Generational Dynamics web site, Turkey, Israel,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Mavi Marmara, Gaza, Egypt,
Burma, Myanmar, Meikhtila, Buddhists, Muslims

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I'm beginning to wonder if this 4T will see a war of Muslims versus every other culture.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I'm beginning to wonder if this 4T will see a war of Muslims versus every other culture.

I does seem that the modern version of Islam has a bit of the death-cult meme to it, regardless of the sect. Moderate Muslims are getting to be as common as moderate Republicans. We know they're out there, but they seem to be in hiding ... or maybe it's denial. Meanwhile, the stupidity just gets worse.

*** 24-Mar-13 World View -- Cyprus and Russia face bitter financial chaos next week

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cyprus and Russia face bitter financial chaos next week
• Turkey suggests that Cyprus convert to the Turkish lira currency
• Lebanon's government collapses as Syria's turmoil crosses border
• Turkey's Erdogan backs off on accepting Israel's apology
• Turkey and U.S. begin brand new Mideast peace initiatives.

****
**** Cyprus and Russia face bitter financial chaos next week
****


Cyprus's president leads overnight financial crisis talks (Kathimerini)

Cyprus's President Nicos Anastasiades and government officials have
been working through the weekend to try to find 6 billion euros to
satisfy the EU's qualifications for a 10 billion euro bailout loan.
However, there are no easy solutions, and the latest plan is a 20-25%
"tax" on deposits over 100,000 euros, something that will hurt the
Russian oligarchs who have been either investing or money-laundering
large sums in Cyprus for years. Many Russians are going to be badly
hurt in losing 25% of their savings, and there may be some retaliation
against Europe, such as by freezing or taxing European assets invested
in Russia. Cypriot citizens are also close to a state of panic, in
view of the approaching chaos when the banks open again, on Tuesday at
the earliest. The moment that the banks open, every account holder
will be at the bank to withdraw their money, for fear that a new
bailout will be needed in the near future. Cyprus's major industry
for the past few years has been banking, and that industry is about to
collapse, as Russians and other large depositors withdraw their money.
The collapse of the banking industry will lead to job losses, and
already there are large public protests by bank employees for exactly
that reason. Everyone in Europe is looking desperately for
a way to kick the can down the road for a few months, but
Europe may have run out of road.
Guardian and Kathimerini

****
**** Turkey suggests that Cyprus convert to the Turkish lira currency
****

One possible scenario is that Cyprus will leave the euro zone, and
return to its former currency, the pound. However, Turkey's minister
to the EU has a better idea -- use the Turkish Cyprus lira as
currency. The lira is already used in the northern part of Cyprus,
the part occupied by Turks since the end of the bitter 1974 between
Greece and Turkey. Separately, Turkish Cyprus minister has suggested
that if Greek Cyprus's banks all went bankrupt, the citizens could
open accounts in Turkish Cypriot banks. Hurriyet (Istanbul)

****
**** Lebanon's government collapses as Syria's turmoil crosses border
****

Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati dissolved the government
and resigned on Friday, after a fallout among ministers,
and called for a "National Dialog":

<QUOTE>"Today, I announce the resignation of the Cabinet in
the hope it will constitute the only gateway and [call on] the
central political blocs in Lebanon to fulfill their duties.

My conscience compels me to take this decision to pave the way for
the return to [National] Dialogue under the auspices of the
president, to which there is no alternative, [paving the way for
formation of] a salvation Cabinet that includes all political
forces."<END QUOTE>

The conflict in Syria has been increasingly spilling across the
border into Lebanon, especially in the northern Lebanon city
of Tripoli. In recent days, warplanes from the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad have been striking targets
in northern Lebanon. Sectarian fighting has been increasing
around Tripoli, and really surged after Mikati announced
his resignation.

Lebanon's government itself is split along sectarian lines. The
terrorist group Hizbollah is part of Lebanon's government, supported
by Iran. Hizbollah has been supporting the al-Assad regime, causing
conflict within Lebanon itself. Lebanon has gone without any
government for long periods in the past, and with the collapse of
Mikati's government, that may happen again. Daily Star (Beirut) and Reuters

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan backs off on accepting Israel's apology
****

On Friday, Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had
fully accepted Israel's apology for the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident,
but on Saturday, he appeared to be backing off. Erdogan gloated,
saying of the apology that "it was offered the way we wanted,"
but said that he would not immediately agree to the exchange
of ambassadors:

<QUOTE>"We will see what will be put into practice during the
process. If they move forward in a promising way, we will make our
contribution. Then, there would be an exchange of ambassadors.

We took a stand but we managed to resolve the process without
being [overly] intractable. We are at the beginning of a process
of elevating Turkey to a position so that it will again have a
say, initiative and power, as it did in the past."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan particularly appeared to be linking an exchange of ambassadors
to the end to Israel's blockade of Gaza, something that's not going to
happen. Erdogan's last sentence reflects the fact that Turkey has
been marginalized in Mideast peace negotiations, because Erdogan has
refused to talk to anyone from Israel. YNet and
Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Turkey and U.S. begin brand new Mideast peace initiatives.
****

Erdogan plans to launch his peace initiative by visiting
the Palestinian territories:

<QUOTE>"I may eventually visit Gaza and the West Bank in
April. This visit would take place in the context of a general
effort to contribute to the resolution process [of the Palestinian
issue]."<END QUOTE>

Meanwhile, the new U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is going to be
shuttling around the Mideast to launch a new peace process, and
"trying to find common ground between both sides to see if there is
ground to resume peace talks."

The earliest Mideast peace process that I remember was Henry
Kissinger's "shuttle diplomacy" in the early 1970s. Since then, there
has been one new peace proposal after another. However, as I wrote in
"Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" in 2003, no peace process can possibly work, because
Jews and Arabs will be re-fighting the genocidal war that followed the
1948 partitioning of Palestine, and the creation of the state of
Israel. Al-Arabiya


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cyprus, Russia, Nicos Anastasiades,
Turkey, Lebanon, Najib Mikati, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Hizbollah, Iran, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel,
Mavi Marmara, Gaza, West Bank, John Kerry,
Henry Kissinger, shuttle diplomacy

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Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> Moderate Muslims are getting to be as common as moderate
> Republicans. We know they're out there, but they seem to be in
> hiding ... or maybe it's denial. Meanwhile, the stupidity just
> gets worse.

In other words, Republicans are the same as radical Islamist
terrorists. I believe that the President and his union supporters
agree with you. That is exactly the reason why there's so much
dysfunction in Washington.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

In other words, Republicans are the same as radical Islamist
terrorists. I believe that the President and his union supporters
agree with you. That is exactly the reason why there's so much
dysfunction in Washington.

You don't get M&L's wry sense of humor. Just because in his view, Republicans and Muslims share a common trait (lack of moderates) doesn't mean that M&L think they are the same.

*** 25-Mar-13 World View -- France sends troops to Central African Republic in chaos

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France sends troops to Central African Republic in chaos
• France's army confronts Islamist fighters in northern Mali
• Leader of Syria's National Coalition resigns
• Israel fires surface-to-surface missile into Syria
• Politicians work all night to break Cyprus deadlock

****
**** France sends troops to Central African Republic in chaos
****


Seleka rebels pose for photo op in front of suburban gendarmerie (police station) in January (Getty)

A rebel coalition calling itself "Seleka" has attacked the capital
city Bangui of Central African Republic (CAR) on Sunday, in a fierce
battle that killed nine South African soldiers, among 400 that were
deployed in the country as military trainers. President Francois
Bozize was forced to flee, and is thought to be in hiding in the
neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. Bangui, a city of 600,000
people, is itself is in total chaos, with open looting and violence.
France is calling for an emergency meeting of United Nations Security
Council. France already had 250 soldiers in Central African Republic,
and is sending another 300 troops, to stabilize the situation and
provide protection for the 1,200 French citizens in the country.
South Africa will send additional troops as well. CAR is 80%
Christian. Reuters

****
**** France's army confronts Islamist fighters in northern Mali
****

Mali's army, backed by troops from France and Chad, say that they've
repelled attack on the city of Gao in northern Mali by al-Qaeda linked
Islamists. The Islamists had controlled Gao for 10 months, until they
were driven out by French forces in an operation that began in
January. It's thought that the Islamists have been hiding in caves in
the surrounding area, preparing to return when the French forces
leave. France has 4,000 troops in Mali, and hopes to being withdrawal
at the end of April. AFP

****
**** Leader of Syria's National Coalition resigns
****

The leader of Syria's opposition National Coalition, Ahmed Moaz
al-Khatib, has resigned, following a meeting with the European Union
which, he said has achieved nothing:

<QUOTE>"I announce my resignation from the National
Coalition, so that I can work with a freedom that cannot possibly
be had in an official institution.

For the past two years, we have been slaughtered by an
unprecedentedly vicious regime, while the world has looked on.

All the destruction of Syria's infrastructure, the detention of
tens of thousands of people, the forced flight of hundreds of
thousands and other forms of suffering have been insufficient for
the international community to take a decision to allow the people
to defend themselves."<END QUOTE>

His description of what's been going on is certainly accurate. The
various "peace plans" put forward by the European Union, the United
Nations, and the Arab League, have all been total farces and have
actually made the situation worse, because the regime of Bashar
al-Assad has used them as a cover, pretending to be working for peace
while stepping up massive attacks on innocent women and children in
cities across the country, with the full support and cooperation with
the Russians. The Syria situation makes a mockery and a joke of the
United Nations. Al Jazeera

****
**** Israel fires surface-to-surface missile into Syria
****

Israel's army fired a surface-to-surface missile from Golan into Syria
on Sunday, destroying a Syrian army position. The missile was a
response to gunfire from Syria that targeted Israeli soldiers
patrolling the border. Reportedly, two Syrian soldiers were wounded.
Jerusalem Post

****
**** Politicians work all night to break Cyprus deadlock
****

Cyprus's politicians, meeting with European finance ministers in
Brussels, are working around the clock to convince the Europeans that
they've done enough to deserve the 10 billion euro bailout. The
Europeans want Cyprus to come up with more money by restructuring the
banking system and by levying money from depositors. It now appears
that accounts containing over 100,000 euros will face a levy of 25%.
If no deal is reached on Monday, then Cyprus's banks may collapse
completely on Tuesday. In anticipation, the Cyprus central bank is
imposing a daily withdrawal limit of 100 euros form ATMs, to prevent a
bank run. AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Central African Republic,
Seleka, Bangui, Francois Bozize, United Nations Security Council,
Mali, Syria, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, National Council,
Arab League, Bashar al-Assad, Israel, Cyprus

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