*** 26-Mar-13 World View -- Buddhists attack Muslims across Asia and Russia considers revenge for Cyprus

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Buddhist monks in Sri Lanka targeting Muslims
• Anti-Muslim Buddhist mobs rampage through Burma's towns
• Europeans reach a deal on Cyprus bailout
• Russia may be planning its revenge

****
**** Buddhist monks in Sri Lanka targeting Muslims
****


Hardline Buddhist monks in Sri Lanka threaten Muslims

Hardline Sinhalese Buddhist monks in Sri Lanka, members of the
Buddhist Strength Force (Bodu Bala Sena, BBS), are targeting Muslims
with violence and protests, and conducting campaigns threatening
people who patronize Muslim businesses. The violence has included a
series of attacks on mosques, and attacks on women wearing Muslim
garb. The BBS says its campaign is to protect the predominant
Sinhalese race, who, they claim, are dwindling. According to one
hardline monk participating in anti-Muslim violence:

<QUOTE>"Look around the world - Malaysia, Indonesia,
Pakistan, Afghanistan and others, they were all Buddhist countries
- but the Muslims destroyed the culture and then took over the
country. We worry they're planning it here too."<END QUOTE>

Sri Lanka is just coming out of a violent civil war between the Tamil
ethnic group (Hindus) and the majority Sinhalese ethnic group
(Buddhists). Muslims are 10% of the population, and they did their
best to stay out of the civil war. But now that the civil war is
over, hardline Buddhists are turning their attention to Muslims.
BBC and
Gulf News

****
**** Anti-Muslim Buddhist mobs rampage through Burma's towns
****

Following anti-Muslim violent riots last week in Meiktila, Burma
(Myanmar), Buddhist mobs rampaged through three more towns in the
suburbs, destroying mosques and burning down dozens of homes,
killing 32, and displacing 12,000. Burma's government is
warning that increasing religious violence could threaten
democratic reforms that have been put in place in the last
three years.

Last year in Rakhine state in southeast Burma, Buddhists
massacred Rohingya Muslims who had arrived in decades past from
Bangladesh. It was thought that last year's violence was
ethnic-based, targeting a community of immigrants. But
the Muslims in Meiktila and suburbs are full citizens who
have lived there for generations.

Burma's last generational crisis war was the civil war ending in 1958.
That was an extremely bloody, genocidal war among Burmese ethnic
groups, and today's Burmese government is determined that it shouldn't
happen again. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Burma
is approaching the time when a new genocidal civil war is likely to
begin. The increase in violent Buddhist attacks on Muslims could be
the early stages of that war. National Post

****
**** Europeans reach a deal on Cyprus bailout
****

In the early hours of Monday morning, Cyprus politicians and European
finance ministers agreed to a 10 billion euro bailout loan for Cyprus,
after Cyprus agreed to harsh conditions to qualify for the loan.
Although insured savings accounts (containing amounts under 100,000
euros) will be spared, larger accounts will be taxed 40% or more.
Cyprus's banking industry will be restructured, throwing thousands of
people out of work. Capital controls will be imposed, preventing
anyone from transferring money out of the country. Banks will remain
closed until at least Thursday, and ATM withdrawals will be restricted
to 100 euros per day. Cyprus's largest industry, serving as a haven
for offshore banking, is now pretty much destroyed.

People with large sums in European banks are thinking twice now about
how safe their money is. Losing 40% of your savings is a hell of a
big hit, and now everyone knows that it's quite possible that the same
thing could happen to any bank account, especially in troubled
countries like France, Spain, Greece and Italy. In fact, Some people
are claiming that the Cyprus deal is very "good news" for American
banks, because institutional investors will be moving their money out
of Spain's, France's and Italy's banks, and moving it to UK or
American banks, where they believe that it will be safer. Reuters and Spiegel

****
**** Russia may be planning its revenge
****

Investors in lots of countries have been hurt by the confiscation
of large chunks of their savings in Cyprus banks, but Russia
is being pegged as the supervillain, and the feeling is
mutual. Russia's Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is calling
the plan "theft," and said, "The stealing of what has already
been stolen continues."

One popular Russian news commentator said that the last time a Western
European government proceeded so recklessly was when Adolf Hitler
expropriated the Jews, referring to money held by the Jews as "dirty."
That was precisely how Europe was talking about Russian assets
deposited in Cyprus, he added.

Russia was given an opportunity last week to participate in the
bailout, but refused, saying the Cyprus wasn't giving enough in
return. But some commentators are saying that Russia's president
Vladimir was politically unable to bail Cyprus out, because it would
have meant bailing out Russia's oligarchs. Not only are they very
unpopular, but many elite groups are gloating over the losses of their
competitors.

Nonetheless, the Cyprus deal is going to create a lot of enemies in
Russia, and is going to have a negative effect on Russia's economy.
As the impact sinks in, some Russians may be plotting revenge. Any
European money in Russian banks could be considered for confiscation
if there were a crisis in the future, and on cold winter nights,
Russia could cut off natural gas exports to Europe, as happened in the
past. Spiegel and =40638&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=023e4487fd63cf1890593ee705dc8da5]Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka, Singhalese, Buddhists,
Tamils, Hindus, Muslims, Burma, Myanmar, Meiktila,
Rakhine, Rohingya, Bangladesh,
euro, Cyprus, Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin

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*** 27-Mar-13 World View -- North Korea's military goes on highest war alert

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Today's Schadenfreude: The 'Ugly Chinese' in Africa
• Peng Liyuan, China's new first lady, steals the spotlight
• Anti-German sentiments grow in Europe after the Cyprus bailout
• North Korea's military goes on highest war alert

****
**** Today's Schadenfreude: The 'Ugly Chinese' in Africa
****


China's new first lady, Peng Liyuan, arriving in Africa this week

For decades since the end of World War II, the media has been full of
"The Ugly American," as a novel, then a movie, then a stereotype,
always portraying Americans as arrogant and insensitive in countries
around the world.

But now it's China's turn. China's new president Xi Jinping is
touring Africa, telling everyone that China believes in "equality
among all countries irrespective of their size and strength," and
expressing opposition to "the big bullying the small and the strong
lording over the weak." I guess he has to hope that Africans don't
read the newspapers about China's brutal military bullying tactics in
the South China Sea.

China's exploitation of Africa is enormous. China imports oil, coal,
minerals and other raw materials from China, and sends hundreds of
thousands of traders to Africa to sell them electronics, spare parts,
and consumer goods. The Chinese obey few environmental laws or labor
laws. Chinese investments in Africa rarely benefit the Africans
themselves. There are now 1-2 million Chinese businessmen and women
in Africa, mostly living in their own communities separate from the
general population, doing the day to day work that gets Africa's oil,
coal and minerals back to mainland China.

According to Lamido Sanusi, the governor of Nigeria's Central Bank,

<QUOTE>"China takes our primary goods, [such as oil and
minerals, to fuel its economic boom], and sells us manufactured
ones. This was also the essence of colonialism. Africa is now
willingly opening itself up to a new form of
imperialism."<END QUOTE>

But not for long, according to Botswana's president Ian Khama:

<QUOTE>"We have had some bad experiences with Chinese
companies in this country. [In the future] we are going to be
looking very carefully at any company that originates from China
in providing construction services of any nature."<END QUOTE>

He added that other African leaders shared his views. CS Monitor and VOA

****
**** Peng Liyuan, China's new first lady, steals the spotlight
****

China's first ladies have not been very popular, starting with Mao
Zedong's first lady, Jiang Qing. In 1938 Mao married her, a beautiful
actress half his age, after dumping his second wife, with whom he
already had five kids. She rose to power in 1966 when she led the
bloody Cultural Revolution, taking revenge against her political
enemies. She was extremely unpopular, and was arrested after Mao's
death in 1976. She died a few years later, supposedly of suicide.
Since then, China's first ladies have remained mostly invisible,
wielding power only in the background.

So China's glamorous new first lady is attracting world wide
attention. Comments about her attire when arriving in Africa -- black
high heels and stockings, an understated leather bag and a light blue
scarf emerging from beneath a dark trenchcoat, collar turned up
against the wind -- have gone viral inside and outside of China.

Before marrying Xi Jinping, Peng was a well-known singer. In one
widely shared video clip, Peng, dressed in military garb, sings about
"bravely advancing for victory" amid a chorus line of bayonet-wielding
soldiers. The stage show is juxtaposed with stock footage of
battle-ready Chinese tanks, jets and warships. Sounds like a marriage
made in heaven. Guardian (London)

****
**** Anti-German sentiments grow in Europe after the Cyprus bailout
****

Many of the details of the Cyprus bailout are not yet known. It's
known that private bank accounts under 100,000 euros will not be
taxed. It's known that private bank accounts over 100,000 euros will
be taxed at 40% or more. But it's not known what "capital controls"
will be used to keep depositors from transferring money out of the
country when the banks open again.

Anti-German sentiments are growing in many parts of Europe, because
they are perceived to have forced the harsh deal on Cyprus -- and
indeed, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has expressed enthusiasm for
the final deal. "The Germans" has become a "watchword for domination
or discipline or austerity" in the eurozone, according to one
commentator. According to one Spanish economics professor, "Like
Hitler, Angela Merkel has declared war on the rest of the continent,
this time to secure economic Lebensraum." Deutsche Welle

****
**** North Korea's military goes on highest war alert
****

Saying that it's the country's "crystal clear judgment" is that it
cannot overlook the United States' nuclear threats and military
actions any longer, North Korea's Supreme Command put its military on
the highest war alert:

<QUOTE>"Our people and army are entering the final stage of
preparations for war against the United States to defend their
country's dignity and sovereignty.

The U.S. nuclear war racket has gone beyond the danger line and
entered the phase of an actual war, defying the repeated warnings
from the army and people of the Democratic People's Republic of
Korea (DPRK)."<END QUOTE>

A South Korean official said a statement by the Supreme Command is
very rare because the organ is an emergency body operative only in war
time.

The war threat comes on the third anniversary of the North Korean
torpedo attack on the South Korean warship Cheonan, killing 46.
Yonhap (Seoul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ugly American, Ugly Chinese,
Xi Jinping, Africa, China, Lamido Sanusi, Ian Khama,
Peng Liyuan, Mao Zedong, Jiang Qing, Cultural Revolution,
Cyprus, Germany, Angela Merkel, North Korea,
Supreme Command, South Korea, Cheonan

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April 2012-newspaper article mentioned that local gov't in Germany was cutting funds for parks and recreation. Thinking back, cutting parks and recreation (in the Seattle area) was an early sign of economic distress.

*** 28-Mar-13 World View -- Cyprus's banks reopen on Thursday with harsh 'capital controls'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Madagascar faces food crisis over locust plague
• Cyprus's banks reopen on Thursday with harsh 'capital controls'
• Will Slovenia be the next Cyprus?
• China conducts naval military drills deep into South China Sea

****
**** Madagascar faces food crisis over locust plague
****


Locust swarm in Madagascar (FAO)

About half of Madagascar is currently infested by hopper locusts and
flying swarms. Each swarm is made up of billions of plant-devouring
insects. The plague now threatens 60 per cent of the country's rice
production, a staple crop in Madagascar, where 80 per cent of the
population lives on less than $1 per day. The locust swarms are also
consuming green vegetation that might normally serve as pasture for
livestock. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) is
asking for $41 million to fight the plague through aerial spraying.
U.N. FAO

****
**** Cyprus's banks reopen on Thursday with harsh 'capital controls'
****

Banks in Cyprus will open their doors on Thursday for the first time
in almost two weeks, under harsh restrictions designed to prevent
money from leaving the country. Large deposits will lose 40-80% of
their principal, depending on which bank the account is in.
Individuals will be limited to 300 euros per day withdrawals. The
strict limits on credit cards and checks will make their use almost
impossible. Individuals leaving the country may not take more than
3000 euros with them. The controls are supposed to expire within a
week or two, but that claim seems to be contradicted by another rule:
students abroad cannot receive more than 10,000 euros per quarter.
Procedures will be set up for companies doing business abroad to prove
to government-appointed officials that money transfers are OK.

The capital controls could last weeks, months or years, in complete
violation of European Union market rules. So analysts point out that
these rules in effect create a "Cyprus euro" that's different from the
regular euro, and has a different exchange rate. According to one
analyst:

<QUOTE>"If you were to impose restrictions equally on capital
transfers and payments [in Cyprus], then economically a Cyprus
euro would be a different currency vis-a-vis a non-Cyprus euro.

You would have to buy non-Cyprus euros to pay for goods and
services in other countries. With the rules of supply and demand,
the Cyprus euro could then take on a different exchange
rate."<END QUOTE>

This two-level euro situation is going to cause major distortions in
Europe's markets. If the controls are in place only a few weeks, then
it will be OK. But if they go on for months, then there will be major
problems. Cyprus Mail and Reuters

****
**** Will Slovenia be the next Cyprus?
****

Slovenia's Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek says that the country is
different from Cyprus, although the country's banks are deeply in debt
and will require 4 billion euros in funding to avoid bankruptcy
this year.

According to Bratusek:

<QUOTE>"Slovenia won't need aid, we can do this on our own.
Our banking system is stable and safe and comparisons with Cyprus
aren't valid. Deposits here are safe and the government is
guaranteeing them."<END QUOTE>

Unfortunately, this laughable. Deposits were safe and
government-guaranteed until three weeks ago, but things changed
overnight. And we know from experiences with Greece, Spain, Portugal
and others that every country's president or prime minister ALWAYS
says that they don't need a bailout -- and they say it up until a
nanosecond before they ask for a bailout.

So where is Slovenia going to get the 4 billion euros it needs?
The plan is to sell bonds -- that is, go more deeply into debt.
Unfortunately, we're already seeing a familiar pattern,
in that Slovenia's bond yields are starting to surge.

Insured bank accounts of under 100,000 euros came close to being taxed
in Cyprus, though finally they were safe, provided that you don't want
to withdraw your money. But accounts over 100,000 euros were
confiscated at the rate of 40-80%. So small deposits in Slovenia may
or may not be safe, but people with a large bank accounts in Slovenia,
including Slovenia's citizens, should be thinking very hard about
getting their money out while they can. Bloomberg and Washington Post

****
**** China conducts naval military drills deep into South China Sea
****

China's president Xi Jinping has been in Africa the last few days,
telling people that China opposes strong countries bullying weak
countries. As he was saying those words, China's navy was bullying
Malaysia, deep into the South China Sea. James Shoal is an island 50
miles from the coast of Malaysia, clearly within Malaysian waters.
But China has sent a naval flotilla, including China's most advances
amphibious landing ships, to take military control of Malaysia's
island. Last week, a Chinese naval vessel fired flares at a
Vietnamese fishing boat that was returning from a fishing ground near
the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. The flares caused the
boat to catch fire, although no one was hurt. China announced last
year that in 2013 it would start boarding and taking control of other
countries' ships in the South China Sea. AP and VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Madagascar, locusts, FAO,
Cyprus, Cyprus euro, capital controls, Slovenia, Alenka Bratusek,
China, Xi Jinping, Africa, South China Sea,
Malaysia, James Shoal

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*** 29-Mar-13 World View -- N. Korea prepares rockets for firing, after U.S. B-2 show of force

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• BRICS summit ends in failure over disagreements about funding
• Russia orders large-scale military exercises in the Black Sea
• Destruction of Syria stirs division in the Arab World
• N. Korea prepares rockets for firing, after U.S. B-2 show of force

****
**** BRICS summit ends in failure over disagreements about funding
****


Five BRICS leaders hail a 'new paradigm', challenging Western-dominated financial institutions (Reuters)

Leaders in developing countries have frequently aired complaints
about the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank,
because the Western countries, especially the United States,
have too much influence. This is true because the Western
countries, especially the United States, supply almost all the money.
These institutions were set up following WW II, when the United
States agreed to become policemen of the world, and agreed to
provide foreign aid to countries around the world suffering from
disease, poverty, or starvation.

So the BRICS countries -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
Africa -- are determined to create a competing organization,
the "BRICS bank." According to South Africa's finance minister:

<QUOTE>"The roots of the World Bank and IMF still lie in the
post-world war two environment. The reforms that have taken place
are still inadequate in terms of addressing the current
environment. We still have a situation where certain parts of the
world are over-represented."<END QUOTE>

Leaders of the five countries have been meeting in Durban, South
Africa, to sign the final agreement creating and funding the BRICS
bank. Unfortunately, the effort collapsed, because they couldn't
agree on where the money would come from, or even which country would
host the bank's world headquarters. All they got was a symbolic
agreement that called for a $50 billion emergency fund, with actual
money to be provided at some time in the future. Tsk, tsk. Russia Today and
Guardian (London)

****
**** Russia orders large-scale military exercises in the Black Sea
****

On the flight back home from the BRICS summit, Russia's president
Vladimir Putin issued a surprise order for a large-scale military
exercise in the Black Sea, where Russia has two major naval bases in
Sevastopol and Novorossiisk. The exercise will involve 7,000 military
personnel, 36 warships, and 250 combat armored vehicles. According to
Russian officials, the purpose of the drill is to improve readiness of
the armed forces.

However, the surprise military exercise comes at a time when the
Cyprus financial meltdown is causing a fundamental change in Russia's
foreign policy. Putin has been courting Europeans, seeking to
establish a privileged political and economic relationship with France
and Germany, to undermine NATO and undermine Europe's transatlantic
tie with the United States. However, the German attitude that
Russia's money in Cyprus was "dirty" money is infuriating the
Russians, and the meltdown itself is having a significant negative
impact on Russia's economy -- a loss of up to two percent of GDP
growth in 2013. With some 80 percent of Russian commercial real
estate registered as belonging to Cyprus-based companies, payments and
dividends from real estate and energy contracts are frozen, and may be
lost. Putin is showing his anger by targeting foreign NGOs in Russia,
and the surprise launch of the large-scale Black Sea military
exercises may also be a signal of his anger, and of a change of policy
away from Europe. Ria Novosti
and Jamestown

****
**** Destruction of Syria stirs division in the Arab World
****

Jeremy Salt, Bilkent University, Ankara: In the ugly panorama that is
the contemporary Middle East, a light hardly flickers on the
horizon. Iraq has been destroyed as a unitary Arab state and jihadis
unleashed in Syria are burning out another room in the Arab
house. Lebanon has again been brought to the brink of implosion
through the intrigues of outside governments and local proxies
incapable of putting the interests of their country ahead of their
sectarian and power intrigues. The Palestinians are divided between
those who live under the authority of one man [Mahmoud Abbas,
Palestinian Authority] who has bound himself to Israel and the US and
two others [Hamas leaders] who have bound themselves to Egypt and
Qatar. Fitna – the spreading of division and sowing of hatred amongst
Muslims – is being fanned across the region by governments brazen
enough to call themselves Muslim. Whether in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and
Iran, Shiism is the enemy. Ceaselessly stirring this pot from the
outside are governments that feast on division in the Arab world.
Palestine Chronicle

****
**** N. Korea prepares rockets for firing, after U.S. B-2 show of force
****


B-2 Stealth Bomber

The Pentagon sent its distinctive bat-wing-shaped B-2 stealth bombers
flying low over the Korean Peninsula this week, dropping fake
munitions, in a "routine training exercise." Defense Secretary
Chuck Hagel said that the flights were a signal to North Korea
that it's risking retaliatory strikes if any military aggression
occurs. The show of force was also a signal to China, as
B-2 bombers hit the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia,
in 1999.

The North Koreans, who have already put their military on the highest
alert, responded by putting rockets on standby, in preparation for
firing at U.S. targets, including the U.S. mainland and military bases
in the Pacific and in South Korea. According to state media:

<QUOTE>"[Kim Jong-un] said he has judged the time has come to
settle accounts with the U.S. imperialists in view of the
prevailing situation.

If they make a reckless provocation with huge strategic forces,
[we] should mercilessly strike the U.S. mainland, their
stronghold, their military bases in the operational theaters in
the Pacific, including Hawaii and Guam, and those in South
Korea."<END QUOTE>

North Korea has been making increasingly belligerent statements in the
last few weeks. One could argue that it's all ranting and bloviating,
or one could point out that he's conducted actual military strikes
against South Korea in the recent past. CS Monitor and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, BRICS summit, World Bank, IMF,
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa,
Vladimir Putin, Cyprus, Germany, Syria,
B-2 bomber, North Korea, South Korea

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*** 30-Mar-13 World View -- Luxembourg opposes using Cyprus as a 'template' for euro bailouts

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia warns that North Korean situation could spiral out of control
• Luxembourg opposes using Cyprus as a 'template' for euro bailouts
• Relationship between Gulf nations and U.S. at a crossroads

****
**** Russia warns that North Korean situation could spiral out of control
****


Large war rally in Pyongyang, N. Korea, on Friday (KCNA)

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on both North Korea and
the United States for "all sides not to flex their military muscle."
He added:

<QUOTE>"We are concerned that alongside the adequate,
collective reaction of the UN Security Council, unilateral action
is being taken around North Korea that is increasing military
activity."<END QUOTE>

His remarks come a day after the U.S. flew B-2 bombers across South
Korea as part of scheduled military drills. Russia and China have
criticized flying the B-2s, but refused to criticize North Korea in
2010, when they attacked a South Korean warship with a torpedo,
killing 46, or when they attacked and killed civilians on a South
Korean island.

The U.S. has been following a strategy of "strategic patience," which
means that we don't respond to North Korea's stream of belligerent
actions, in the hope that if we're patient long enough, then the North
Koreans will stop doing them. That would require North Korea to
exhibit a conciliatory mood and behavior, but from the point of view
of Generational Dynamics, such a mood would be extremely unusual during
a generational Crisis era. What's actually happened is that the North
Koreans have been raising the stakes and adopting an increasingly
belligerent attitude.

Now the United States is raising the stakes as well with the B-2
overflights, and with actions by the Treasury Dept. targeting North
Korea's banks and finances. This appears to signal that the policy of
strategic patience is at least partially ending.

Lavrov is right that the actions on both sides to cross red
lines can spiral into full-scale war. In fact, from the point of
view of generational theory, that's exactly the way that a violent
crisis war begins during a generational Crisis era.

Many analysts are referring to the danger of a "miscalculation," which
means that a war might begin because of carelessness on one side or
the other, but that's not the real danger. Japan's decision to bomb
Pearl Harbor was not a careless decision. It was a thoroughly planned
decision, based on hallucinatory assumptions. That's often the way
generational crisis wars begin, and that's the real danger today. A
lot of people believe that Kim Jong-un is a maniac, and maniacs start
the worst wars.

<QUOTE>"Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in
groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." -- Friedrich
Nietzsche<END QUOTE>

Russia Today and Washington Post

****
**** Luxembourg opposes using Cyprus as a 'template' for euro bailouts
****

Leaders in Luxembourg are warning that if the Cyprus bailout model
-- a levy on bank deposits -- is used in bailouts of other troubled
euro zone countries, then investors will pull out of Europe.
According to the country's finance minister:

<QUOTE>"This will lead to a situation in which investors
invest their money outside the euro zone. In this difficult
situation, we need to avoid anything that will lead to instability
and destroy the trust of savers."<END QUOTE>

Luxembourg's leaders have good reason to worry. Luxembourg is
described as a nation that's like "Cyprus on steroids," with a smaller
population but a much larger banking sector, in a great deal of debt.

In fact, the idea of using people's bank savings accounts to bail out
countries in debt is very much on the table. The trend is that
bailouts are getting more frequent and more serious, and the northern
countries, particularly Germany, do not feel an obligation to continue
bailing out other countries in Europe. Is Germany's money really
Europe's money? The Germans say that it's Germany's money. Bloomberg and Spiegel

****
**** Relationship between Gulf nations and U.S. at a crossroads
****

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising Kuwait, Saudi Arabia,
the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, was founded in the early 1980s, in
the shadow of the Iran/Iraq war. For the most part, the GCC states
and the U.S. have shared a clear common and mutual interest in the
stability and security of the Gulf region. But now they're growing
further apart on an almost daily basis, with the two sides taking
different positions on several major issues:

• On Syria, the GCC position is that the Bashar al-Assad regime
  has lost all legitimacy and the conflict is spilling over into
  neighboring nations. The GCC states are supporting the armed
  resistance, but the United states is supporting a continued arms
  embargo.
  
• With regard to Iran's nuclear program, the U.S. favors a
  diplomatic approach, while the GCC nations see this as simply a way
  for Iran to stall for years to buy time to develop a nuclear program.
  The Arab Gulf states see this possibility as extremely dangerous, and
  view the U.S. position as underestimating the danger.
  
• The U.S. has persistently failed to play an honest broker in the
  Arab-Israeli conflict. While the GCC states have repeatedly tried
  over the past decades to work toward a resolution of the crisis,
  including expanding diplomatic contact with Israel and sponsoring
  peace initiatives, the US has refused to take a more balanced position
  or undertake a concerted push for realistic Middle East
  peace.

Other areas of disagreement include Iraq, Yemen, and Bahrain. In the
GCC view, the US fails to understand the overall strategic
environment, and the dangers associated with the shifts taking place.

The result is that the GCC states have no choice but to act on their
own and without consideration of US interests and concerns. Arab News



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Sergei Lavrov, North Korea, strategic
patience, Japan, Pearl Harbor, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Germany, Gulf
Cooperation Council, GCC, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Israel,
Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain

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*** 31-Mar-13 World View -- Report: U.S. military action in Syria may be imminent

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Debka: U.S., Israel, Turkey, Jordan planning military action in Syria
• Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) tries to regain influence
• Bank of Cyprus customers will lose 60% of their savings

****
**** Debka: U.S., Israel, Turkey, Jordan planning military action in Syria
****


Israeli soldiers testing chemical protection gear

I try to be cautious about quoting Debka, whose reporters have
contacts within intelligence services in a number of countries. On
the one hand, they provide insights that are not available elsewhere.
But on the other hand, they sometimes get things wrong. In the past
few years, they've predicted several imminent wars that never
occurred. Debka's weekly subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a
subscriber) is laying out plans for imminent military action in Syria,
to counter the threat of chemical and biological weapons, either by
the regime of president Bashar al-Assad, or by al-Qaeda linked
terrorists, such as the jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra Brigades. The
following is a summary of what Debka is saying. I leave it to you,
Dear Reader, to do your own evaluation as to how close we are to
full-scale war in Syria:

• The recent restoration of diplomatic relations between Turkey
  and Israel has opened the door to a joint military operation by the
  U.S., Turkey, Israel and Jordan in Syria. For the U.S., this would
  not be a "lead from behind" operation. The U.S. would supply 12,000
  soldiers initially, increasing to 75,000.
  
• The objective of this operation would be to take control of
  Syria's chemical and biological weapons, keeping them out of the hands
  of either the al-Assad regime or the al-Qaeda linked terrorists.
  However, a second operation, involving NATO, would have removal of
  al-Assad its objective. A possible Israeli objective would be to
  attack Hizbollah in Lebanon.
  
• In anticipation of this military operation, Russia and Iran have
  been doubling or tripling their arms shipments to the al-Assad regime.
  Furthermore, the flights have been landing in air strips closer to the
  actual battles, to avoid having to transport the weapons over land.
  On Thursday, the regime issued protective gear for chemical warfare to
  two elite Syrian army divisions. Al-Assad may be planning an all-out
  attempt to win the civil war, through the use of chemical and
  biological weapons.
  
• The following "terrorist organizations" are defined: On the one
  hand, the Lebanese Shiite Hizbollah and the Alawite "Shabiha" -
  civilian militiamen loyal to the Assad clan and his Ba'ath party, who
  were recently augmented by Iraqi Shiite fighters; and, on the other,
  Islamist rebel forces led by Al Qaeda's Syrian arm, the Jabhat
  al-Nusra Brigades.
  
• A major split has occurred in the Arab League, with opposing
  factions led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Saudi Arabia has launched a
  large-scale supply operation of heavy weapons to rebel forces for the
  capture to Aleppo airport, to inhibit weapons shipments from Iran and
  Russia to the al-Assad regime. Ironically, the weapons are
  Russian-made, having been purchased from the Balkans nations of
  Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo.
  
• The news that Saudi Arabia was supplying Syrian rebels with heavy
  weapons caused verbal and physical violence between Saudi and Qatari
  delegates at least week's Arab League summit. The Saudis accuse the
  Qataris of conspiring to bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power in
  Damascus, including radical groups tied to al-Qaeda. The Qataris
  accuse the Saudis of trying to gain control of the Syrian rebel
  movement.
  
• Since March 21, Russian warships in the Mediterranean were ordered
  to avoid Syria's Tartus port, because the piers and facilities are
  crowded with Syrian Alawite refugees begging Russian seamen begging
  for food, water and medical aid. Instead, they'll be docking at
  Lebanon's Beirut port.

Debka and Debka

****
**** Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) tries to regain influence
****

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) has been trying for years to
gain worldwide stature as militant jihadists, but actually has been
losing influence in its home regions in Central Asia. The lost of
influence is attributed to an information campaign that has been
conducted in the region, involving governments, religious leaders,
media and NGOs, to explain the differences between true religion and
extremism. In fact, the IMU is currently more deeply entrenched in
Pakistan and Afghanistan. But with the spring thaw in progress, it's
now trying to make alliances with other terrorists to reestablish
itself around the volatile Fergana Valley, and all along the border
between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Central Asia Online

****
**** Bank of Cyprus customers will lose 60% of their savings
****

Details continue to come out about how much of the savings of Cyprus
savers will be confiscated by the government in return for the EU
bailout that prevented bankruptcy. Bank accounts containing less than
100,000 euros will remain, although there will remain strict limits on
withdrawals. But savings above 100,000 euros in the Bank of Cyprus
will lose 60% or more of their savings:

• The first 37.5% will be converted into near worthless
  shares of the Bank of Cyprus.
  
• The next 22.5% will be permanently confiscated.
  
• The remaining 40% will be temporarily frozen, and will be released
  "within a short time frame."

Quite honestly, this takes my breath away. Bloomberg and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Israel, Turkey, Jordan,
Saudia Arabia, Qatar, Bashar al-Assad,
Jabhat al-Nusra Brigades, Muslim Brotherhood, Arab League,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, Fergana Valley,
Bank of Cyprus

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*** 1-Apr-13 World View -- Half of China's rivers have disappeared

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Half of China's rivers have disappeared
• Germans may be removing their savings from banks
• Suspicions grow that the Cyprus bailout numbers don't make sense
• Jordan and Palestine agree to jointly defend Jerusalem from Israel

****
**** Half of China's rivers have disappeared
****


Dead pigs along the riverbank near Shanghai (AP)

From a country of 1.3 billion people and fraught with water shortages,
comes a startling new census report that over half the nation's rivers
have disappeared. According to the Ministry of Water Resources, China
currently has 22,909 rivers, some 28,000 fewer than in the 1990s. The
drastic drop is blamed on faulty maps, severe overexploitation of
groundwater in 400 cities in China, and severe pollution.

This comes just after a series of "animal apocalypse" stories, one
after another. First, over 16,000 pig carcasses were found in one of
the rivers supplying the water supply of Shanghai, China's financial
hub, starting last month. Then more than 1,000 dead ducks were found
in a river in southwest China. And what's just as amazing is that
Chinese authorities are offering no explanation for these carcasses,
except to say that they're "investigating."

And now a new story is coming out of Anhui province in eastern China,
about a scenic pond inhabited by a bevy of beautiful black swans for
the the last decade. All of a sudden, five of the black swans were
found dead on Wednesday morning. Once again, there's no official
explanation, but a reporter found that the water had an oily quality
to it, and quite a lot of garbage could be seen on the surface. Many
people often used the pond to rinse cloths, mops, mats and other items
containing various chemicals.
Global Times and Shanghaiist and Danwei

****
**** Germans may be removing their savings from banks
****

Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is insisting that
bank savings deposits are safe in all eurozone countries besides
Cyprus are safe:

<QUOTE>"Cyprus is and will remain a special one-off case.
The savings accounts in Europe are safe.

Cyprus’s economy will now go through a long and painful period of
adjustment. But then it will pay back the loan when it is on a
solid economic foundation. ...

[You] could see [the strength of the euro] during the Cyprus
crisis. The entire turbulence did not have any impact on the
other countries in southern Europe. The financial markets have
seen: we are better prepared now. We’ve accomplished quite a bit.

What is more important is that we are strong enough to keep
everyone in the boat.

I believe that we will one day read in the history books about
this period that the crisis brought Europe even closer
together."<END QUOTE>

He added that the continent was currently enjoying "a very fortunate
era."

Schäuble was trying to reassure the wider European public, many of
whom fear the power of the Germans, and see them as imposing the
German culture on the rest of Europe by force. The Germans are deeply
angered by portrayals in Cyprus of Chancellor Angela Merkel with a
Hitler moustache.

At the same time, Schäuble was addressing the domestic German
audience, which is headed for federal elections in September. The
Germans are relieved, comforted and pleased with themselves, because
the Germans didn't have pay to bail out the Russian oligarchs.

That's why few people really believe that Schäuble was telling the
truth. Everybody knows that Greece is headed for another crisis, as
are Spain, Portugal and Italy. What will happen then? Will Germany
really be willing to bear the brunt of another bailout, without taking
advantage of "the Cyprus solution" -- taxing the depositors' savings
accounts? If you believe that, then I have a bridge I'd like to sell
you.

Even most Germans don't believe that their savings are necessarily
safe, with one in three saying they'd like to return to the
deutschmark. And there's growing anecdotal evidence that some Germans
have begun removing their savings from banks, and that others have
opened new accounts to spread their savings around and avoid getting
caught like Cypriot depositors with more than 100,000 euros.
Spreading savings around several banks may not be a bad idea for large
American savers, as well.

As I've been saying for years, from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, both Europe and America are in a deflationary spiral, and a
major financial panic and crisis, worse than 1929, is coming with
mathematical certainty. VOA and Kathimerini and Guardian (London)

****
**** Suspicions grow that the Cyprus bailout numbers don't make sense
****

Various bloggers are digging into the math behind the Cyprus bailout,
and are finding that the figures don't make sense. It was originally
reported that Russian oligarchs had over 35 billion euros in Cyprus
banks, but it now appears that it's really more like 10 billion.
We've been told that the immediate cause of the problem was all the
foreign money in the banking system, but that explanation now appears
to be wrong. Forbes

****
**** Jordan and Palestine agree to jointly defend Jerusalem from Israel
****

On Sunday, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan's
King Abdullah signed an agreement on "the defense of Jerusalem and the
holy sites."

According to the agreement:

• Jordan and Palestine will exert all efforts to protect
  Jerusalem and its Holy Sites from Israeli escalatory Judaisation.
  
• Jordan and Palestine agree to the common goal of defending
  Jerusalem together.
  
• The status of East Jerusalem as Palestinian sovereign occupied
  territory is reaffirmed. According to the agreement, all post-1967
  occupation practices or aggressions against Jerusalem are not
  recognised by any international or legal entity.

Jerusalem Post and Petra (Jordan)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Shanghai, Anhui,
Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Cyprus, Angela Merkel,
Jordan, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, King Abdullah,
Jerusalem

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*** 2-Apr-13 World View -- U.S. Navy moves destroyer off coast of Korean Peninsula

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Satellite pictures detail massive Buddhist on Muslim violence in Burma
• U.S. Navy moves destroyer off coast of Korean Peninsula
• Influence of extremist groups in the Balkans grows
• David A Stockman says our economy is in 'End-stage metastasis'

****
**** Satellite pictures detail massive Buddhist on Muslim violence in Burma
****

We've reported on the massive violent attacks against Muslims by
rampaging mobs of Buddhists around Meiktila, Burma (Myanmar), during
March 20-22, killing dozens, displacing thousands, destroying hundreds
of residences and mosques. The extent of the devastation is shown
dramatically by the following before and after pictures:


Before and after satellite pictures, Meiktila, Burma (Human Rights Watch)

The damage covers a region of about 24 hectares (60 acres). Buddhist
violence against Muslims appears to be increasing in Burma and in Sri
Lanka, and possibly other Asian regions as well. Human Rights Watch

****
**** U.S. Navy moves destroyer off coast of Korean Peninsula
****

North Korea has continued increasingly belligerent statements, going
far beyond the tenor of similar statements, even declaring that North
and South Korea are already in a state of war. North Korea's child
dictator, Kim Jong-un, has gone so far that it may be impossible to
back down without losing substantial credibility domestically, and so
he may decide that it's necessary to prove himself by making some
attack, like the two attacks on South Korea in 2010. As things stand
now, tensions are very high in both North and South Korea, and both
sides have made it clear that they strike militarily at the slightest
provocation.

U.S. defense officials are confirming that the Navy has moved the
destroyer USS McCain to a location off the coast of the Korean
Peninsula. The destroyer is equipped with the Aegis defense system
that's capable of shooting down missiles.

From the point of view of generational theory, this ping-pong back and
forth of threats and counter-threats is exactly the pattern that leads
to generational crisis wars. Fox News and VOA

****
**** Influence of extremist groups in the Balkans grows
****

Two kinds of extremist groups -- Islamist extremists and far-right
neo-Nazi extremists -- are growing in strength and influence in the
Balkans, albeit slowly. (The phrase "far-right" has different
meanings in Europe and America.) The Arab Spring has inspired the
rise of several Islamic extremist organizations in Kosovo, Albania and
Serbia. However, the huge international presence in the Balkans has
denied them the basis for widespread violence, nor have they been able
to convince citizens that they are focused on solving problems, not
just selling nationalist rhetoric. Far-right extremists in the
Balkans region have been similarly unsuccessful, with the notable
exception of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn in Greece, which holds 18 seats
in parliament, and whose popularity is rising. Southeast Europe Times

****
**** David A Stockman says our economy is in 'End-stage metastasis'
****

President Ronald Reagan took his budget director, David A. Stockman,
"to the woodshed" for calling supply-side economics a "Trojan horse"
that would simply benefit the rich. Stockman has been critical of
economic policies in all administrations since then, and now he's
saying that economic policy failures -- a bloated government economy
mired deeply in debt -- have compounded themselves to the point where
America is in "End-stage metastasis," headed for a new Great
Depression. According to Stockman:

<QUOTE>"The future is bleak. The greatest construction boom
in recorded history — China’s money dump on infrastructure over
the last 15 years — is slowing. Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey,
South Africa and all the other growing middle-income nations
cannot make up for the shortfall in demand. The American machinery
of monetary and fiscal stimulus has reached its limits. Japan is
sinking into old-age bankruptcy and Europe into welfare-state
senescence. The new rulers enthroned in Beijing last year know
that after two decades of wild lending, speculation and building,
even they will face a day of reckoning, too. ...

These policies have brought America to an end-stage
metastasis. The way out would be so radical it can’t happen. It
would necessitate a sweeping divorce of the state and the market
economy. It would require a renunciation of crony capitalism and
its first cousin: Keynesian economics in all its forms. The state
would need to get out of the business of imperial hubris, economic
uplift and social insurance and shift its focus to managing and
financing an effective, affordable, means-tested safety
net. ...

The United States is broke — fiscally, morally, intellectually —
and the Fed has incited a global currency war (Japan just signed
up, the Brazilians and Chinese are angry, and the German-dominated
euro zone is crumbling) that will soon overwhelm it. When the
latest bubble pops, there will be nothing to stop the collapse. If
this sounds like advice to get out of the markets and hide out in
cash, it is."<END QUOTE>

A different view of the situation, reaching the same conclusion,
is provided by analyst Mark D. Cook:

<QUOTE>"I believe when the 1st quarter of 2013 is looked upon
in a rear view mirror, it will go down as one of the most
overextended, overbought markets of all time. Keep in mind that
the complacency factors that I view have the bulls not seeing the
semi bearing down on them to flatten. A pullback of 200 to 300
S&P points from this point to sometime in 2013 appears likely
given the overextension. I feel like the person that knows the
earthquake is going to consume all the terrain, but nobody is
listening as they sip marguerites and purchase extravagances
beyond normal common sense. Human nature will never
change."<END QUOTE>

I guess he feels like me.

Generational Dynamics approaches the issues in a different way, but
reaches the same conclusions. Both Europe and America are in a
deflationary spiral, and a major financial panic and crisis, worse
than 1929, is coming with mathematical certainty. (NY Times) and UPI (April 13, 1986) and Mark D Cook


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Meiktila,
Buddhists, Muslims, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, USS McCain, Kosovo, Albania, Serbia, Greece,
Golden Dawn, David A Stockman, Ronald Reagan,
Mark D Cook

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*** 3-Apr-13 World View -- China's military on high alert near North Korean border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea restarting nuclear power plant
• China mobilizing troops, jets, navy near N. Korea
• Eurozone unemployment rises to record high 12%

****
**** North Korea restarting nuclear power plant
****


The N. Koreans spectacularly blew up the Nyongbyon cooling tower on June 27, 2008 (AP)

North Korea announced on Tuesday that it would be restarting
its nuclear facilities at Nyongbyon, including the
plutonium reactor and a uranium enrichment plant which
produce fuel for nuclear weapons. In 2007, the North
Koreans agreed to shut the plant down, in return for economic
aid. In 2008, the North Koreans demolished the cooling tower
in a spectacular explosion. The new announcement signals the
failure of pretty much the only success in negotiating with
North Korea in the last decade. AP

****
**** China mobilizing troops, jets, navy near N. Korea
****

The process of ping-pong belligerence continued to grow as threats of
war on the Korean Peninsula have caused China to place its military
forces on heightened alert. China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is
mobilizing troops near the border with North Korea, including troop
movements and warplane activity. China’s navy warships have also been
conducting live-firing naval drills in the Yellow Sea.

This comes a week after North Korea announced that since March 26 its
missile and artillery forces have been placed on the highest alert
status.

It's not completely clear whether China's mobilization is for the
defense of China from attacks by North Korea, for the defense of North
Korea from attacks by the U.S. and South Korea, for the defense of
China from attacks by the U.S., or for all of the above.

The United States has moved a destroyer capable of shooting down
missiles to the waters off the coast of Korea. Over the weekend, the
U.S. flew two B-2 stealth bombers round trip from Missouri to Korea,
where dummy bombs were dropped. Many people consider these actions to
be warnings to both North Korea and China that the U.S. is capable of
delivering nuclear weapons quickly, even without use of aircraft
carriers.

This kind of ping-pong belligerence in a generational Crisis era is
exactly the kind of thing that triggers generational crisis wars.
Pundits are expressing the hope the N. Korea's child dictator Kim
Jong-un will back down, allowing the U.S. and China to back down, and
certainly China and his own advisors are pressuring him to do just
that. But he may have gone so far out on a limb that backing down now
will put his entire dictatorship into danger. Russia Today
and Free Beacon

****
**** Eurozone unemployment rises to record high 12%
****


Eurozone unemployment rate, 2000-2013. Unemployment fell sharply during the giant credit bubble of 2000-2007, and has been rising steadily since the bubble burst. (eurostat)

The unemployment rate rose to a eurozone all-time high of 12% in
February, up from 10.9% in February of last year. The huge
divergences within the eurozone were illustrated by youth
unemployment, which ranged from 55.7% in Greece to 7.7% in Germany.
Compared to a year ago, the highest increases occurred in Greece,
Portugal and Spain, while the largest decreases occurred in
Latvia, Estonia, and Ireland.

As bad as the figures are, the worse news is that this is a long-term
trend that's continuing. For several years, we've been hearing that
Europe's economy would start growing again -- in 2008, in 2009, in
2010, in 2011, in 2012. All of the "kicking the can down the road"
European crises, especially in Greece, were based on the assumption
that if you can stall long enough, then the economy will start growing
again, and everyone can start spending money and going into even
higher debt -- a truly ridiculous assumption, since it assumes that
the credit bubble will resume. Even now I hear some analysts talk
about growth in the second half of 2013, or in 2014. But the Boomers
and Gen-Xers who caused the huge credit bubble of the early 2000s have
been badly burned by their personal and business debt. This is what
happened in the 1930s, after the crash of 1929, and why the stock
market didn't return to pre-crash levels for 25 years. In fact, from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we haven't even seen the
worst yet, because we will see, with absolutely certainty, a historic
crash that will be remembered forever, just as the crash of 1929 is
indelibly burned into generational memory. Bloomberg and eurostat (PDF)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Nyongbyon, China,
People's Liberation Army, PLA, eurozone, unemployment,
Greece, Portugal, Spain, Latvia, Estonia, Ireland

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*** 4-Apr-13 World View -- U.S. moves defense missiles to Guam for North Korean threats

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hugo Chavez returns to Venezuela reincarnated as a singing bird
• U.S. moves defense missiles to Guam for North Korean threats
• North Korea closes border to factory workers from South
• IMF begins loan talks with Egypt in midst of political turmoil

****
**** Hugo Chavez returns to Venezuela reincarnated as a singing bird
****


Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday, kicking off campaign for presidency (AP)

A month after the March 5 death of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez
of cancer, Acting President Nicolas Maduro kicked off his campaign for
the presidency with a speech about how he had a singing duet with a
bird who was the reincarnation of Chavez:

<QUOTE>"A bird was looking at me and it started singing. It
sang and I responded with a song. The bird took flight, circled
around once then flew away.

I felt the spirit and the blessings of Hugo Chavez for this battle
that begins today -- towards victory on April 14!"<END QUOTE>

There have been no reports of help from the beyond for opposition
candidate Henrique Capriles. Euro news

****
**** U.S. moves defense missiles to Guam for North Korean threats
****

In response to the North Korean threats of a missile attack on United
States' possessions, the Pentagon has announced that it's moving an
advanced missile defense system to Guam to protect that U.S. bases on
that island. The system is the ballistic Terminal High Altitude Area
Defense System (Thaad), which includes a truck-mounted launcher,
interceptor missiles, and AN/TPY-2 tracking radar, together with an
integrated fire control system.

In response, the official North Korean news agency issued
a statement:

<QUOTE>"We formally inform the White House and Pentagon that
the ever-escalating US hostile policy towards the DPRK [North
Korea] and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed by the
strong will of all the united service personnel and people and
cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means
of the DPRK and that the merciless operation of its revolutionary
armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and
ratified."<END QUOTE>

BBC

****
**** North Korea closes border to factory workers from South
****

For several days, pundits have been saying that the war threats from
North Korea don't really mean anything because the Kaesong industrial
park was still operating. The Kaesong industrial park is in North
Korea, just across the border from South Korea. It was created in
2004 as a point of cooperation between the two Koreas. It provides
jobs for more than 50,000 North Koreans, and over 1,000 South Koreans,
many of whom cross the border each day to work there. The employers
are South Korean manufacturing firms, mostly textiles. The salaries
of the North Koreans get paid to the North Korean government, which
then pays a tiny fraction of the amount to the actual person who did
all the work. So it's a highly lucrative situation for the North
Korean government.

On Wednesday, North Korea barred South Korean workers from entering
Kaesong industrial park. South Korean workers will be allowed to
return South, but many are staying in Kaesong out of fear that they
won't be able to return. South Korean firms with workers at Kaesong
are expressing concern that they won't be able to send food to their
workers.

South Koreans are quite indifferent to the North Korean threats,
according to reports, and are just going about their normal
business with no concerns. This is contrast to the alarms
being expressed in the Western media.

So you can take your pick on what to believe. You can believe
that North Korean child dictator Kim Jong-un is just throwing
a childish temper tantrum, and that eventually he'll tire of
it, and just settle down and take a nap.

Or, you can take the view that Kim Jong-un has gone so far over the
line in making hysterical threats, that backing down would completely
destroy his credibility, at home and abroad, and that therefore he
MUST conduct some sort of military strike. We report, you decide.
Globe and Mail (Canada) and Hankyoreh Media (Seoul)

****
**** IMF begins loan talks with Egypt in midst of political turmoil
****

Protesters marched through Cairo on Wednesday to express their
rejection of the austerity requirements of any IMF loan to Egypt. The
protests come as IMF visitors arrived in Cairo for a brutal ten days
of negotiations with Egyptian leaders for a $4.8 billion, at a time
when Egypt's foreign currency reserves are desperately low and the
pound currency is falling in value. It is now almost impossible for
Egypt to buy wheat, of which it is the world's biggest importer, and
fuel. The IMF and Egypt have reached loan agreements twice in the
past, but Egypt walked away from them because of political protests
against the IMF's austerity rules. But Egypt's economic situation has
become so desperate that president Mohamed Morsi may have to risk
further unpopularity by signing the deal with the IMF. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chavez,
Nicolas Maduro, Henrique Capriles,
North Korea, Guam, Kim Jong-un, Thaad,
Kaesong industrial park, IMF, Egypt

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*** 5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht
• Student loan deliquencies may be reaching a tipping point
• Intercepted communications suggest North Korea near missile launch

****
**** Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht
****


Buddhist Monk Ashin Wirathu (front) supports anti-Muslim violence

Just outside the town center of Meiktila, Burma (Myanmar), there's a
blackened patch of ground where 20 Muslim boys last month were taken
from a madrassa, and hacked to death, their bodies soaked in petrol
and set alight. This was part of a much larger wild, frenzied attack
by Buddhists on Muslims that killed dozens and reduced an entire
established community of 12,000 Muslims, including homes, shops and
mosques, to ashes and rubble. According to a former army captain who
witnessed the events:

<QUOTE>"I saw eight boys killed in front of me. I tried to
stop the crowd, I told them to go home. But they threatened me,
and the police pulled me away.

The police did not do anything - I don't know why. Perhaps because
they lack experience, perhaps because they did not know what
orders to give.

On the bank thousands of people were cheering. When someone was
killed, they cheered. And they were shouting 'they killed our monk
yesterday, we must kill them'. There were women, monks, young
people. I feel disgusted - and ashamed."<END QUOTE>

This description reminded me of descriptions of Kristallnacht that
I've quoted in the past. According to Martin Gilbert, in his 2006 book
"Kristallnacht, Prelude to Destruction":

<QUOTE>"Jewish communities in Germany dated back a thousand
years. For the fifty years before Hitler came to power, German
Jews had integrated fully into German life and culture. They were
proud Germans, bewildered to be singled out as an evil influence,
and trusting that the excesses of Nazism must, in the normal
evolution of things, moderate and decline."<END QUOTE>

Gilbert quotes the Daily Telegraph Berlin correspondent of the
time as follows:


NY Times, Nov 11, 1938

<QUOTE>"Racial hatred and hysteria seemed to have taken
complete control of otherwise decent people. I saw fashionably
dressed women clapping their hands and screaming with glee, while
respectable middle-class mothers held up their babies to see the
'fun.'"<END QUOTE>

Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu is a major anti-Muslim activist leader in
Burma. He says the following:

<QUOTE>"We Buddhist Burmese are too soft. We lack patriotic
pride.

They - the Muslims - are good at business, they control
transport, construction. Now they are taking over our political
parties. If this goes on, we will end up like Afghanistan or
Indonesia. ...

When you leave a seed, from a tree, to grow in a pagoda, it seems
so small at first. But you know you must cut it out, before it
grows and destroys the building."<END QUOTE>

Change just a few of the names, and this quote by Ashin Wirathu could
have come directly out of Adolf Hitler's mouth. BBC

****
**** Student loan deliquencies may be reaching a tipping point
****

Student loans are unique in that they can't be discharged in a
bankruptcy. The result is that borrowers have no leverage, and are
subject to all kinds of abuse by collection agencies, including
extremely high interest rates. Delinquency rates for student debt
have been increasing. Outstanding student debt was $250 billion in
2003, now about $1 trillion, and continuing to grow exponentially,
creating a student loan credit bubble that could collapse and damage
the economy in the same way that the collapse of the real estate
bubble damaged the economy. Main Street and CBS News and Bloomberg

****
**** Intercepted communications suggest North Korea near missile launch
****

North Korea has moved a mobile medium range missile and associated
launch components to the east coast in the last few days, putting
Japan, South Korea and Guam within possible target range. The missile
could be fired immediately, if desired. In addition, U.S. officials
say that intercepted communications seem to show that the North
Koreans are planning a mobile ballistic missile launch in the coming
days or weeks. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Meiktila,
Kristallnacht, Martin Gilbert, Ashin Wirathu, Adolf Hitler,
student loans, North Korea, Guam, Japan, South Korea

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*** 6-Apr-13 World View -- Pandemic concerns rising over China's H7N9 bird flu deaths

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pandemic concerns rising over China's H7N9 bird flu deaths
• France's president Hollande in scandal crisis
• North Korea warns embassies to evacuate before April 10

****
**** Pandemic concerns rising over China's H7N9 bird flu deaths
****


Pandemic concerns are rising over bird flu transmission to humans

Chinese authorities have slaughtered over 20,000 chickens, ducks,
geese and pigeons form a live poultry market in Shanghai, as evidence
mounts that a new H7N9 bird flu virus has evolved into a form that can
spread from bird to mammal, and from mammal to mammal. China has
confirmed 14 H7N9 cases, of whom six have died. The current form of
the virus is not considered dangerous, because it spreads to a human
only in case of physical contact with an infected bird or human. But
pandemic concerns are rising because the virus is evolving, and the
next mutation may bring it to a form that can spread rapidly from
human to human. The mutations permit the virus to function in the
lower body temperators of mammals, as opposed to the higher body
temperatures of birds. There are now suspicions that the thousands of
dead pigs found in the rivers near Shanghai died of the same flu
virus. 20-40 million people died during the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu
epidemic, considered the most devastating global epidemic in recorded
world history. Xinhua and Recombinomics

****
**** France's president Hollande in scandal crisis
****

The European financial crisis has pushed the popularity of France's
Socialist president Francois Hollande to the lowest in decades.
Hollande had promised to raise taxes on the rich and fight corruption,
but his campaign was completely derailed this week when his own budget
minister Jerome Cahuzac was forced to admit that he had a secret
offshore 600,000 euro bank account, and that he'd been lying about it
for years. According to one analyst:

<QUOTE>"This weakens Hollande. It goes to the heart of the
austerity debate. For the hard left, the charge will be that the
Socialists are hypocritical: during the day they talk social
justice, but at night they’re managing their Swiss bank accounts
and shares on Wall Street."<END QUOTE>

Unfortunately, there are a lot of politicians with similar ethics, and
they're not all Socialists. Bloomberg

****
**** North Korea warns embassies to evacuate before April 10
****

North Korea on Friday has advised all embassies in Pyongyang, the
capital city, to evacuate their staff by April 10, saying that their
safety could be at risk in the event of a conflict after that date.
Also, North Korea loaded two intermediate-range missiles onto mobile
launchers and hid them in an unidentified facility near the east
coast, triggering speculation that the North is ready for an abrupt
missile launch. These missiles would not be able to reach the
U.S. mainland, but they could reach Japan, South Korea, and Guam.
South Korea has responded by sending its destroyer warships to
positions near North Korean waters, equipped with Aegis systems
capable of shooting down missiles. ABC News and Yonhap (Seoul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, H7N9, bird flu, China, Shanghai,
Spanish flu, France, Francois Hollande, Jerome Cahuzac,
North Korea, Pyongyang, Aegis

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Originally Posted by The Wonkette

> You don't get M&L's wry sense of humor. Just because in his view,
> Republicans and Muslims share a common trait (lack of moderates)
> doesn't mean that M&L think they are the same.

I see too much of this stuff. My article yesterday on violence in
Meiktila brought me comments from people who hate Buddhists, people
who hate Muslims, and people who hate Jews. Here in America, we see
people who want all Muslims to be either jailed or deported, or all
Latino immigrants jailed or deported, and we see mainstream reporters
on CNN refer to Tea Party members with the epithet "tea baggers,"
which is the equivalent of referring to NAACP members with the epithet
"n---ers."

So I tend to take the "I was just joking, ha, ha, ha" excuse
with a grain of salt.

Epithets are one thing, but what I DO consider to be really dangerous
is when the President's union supporters declare war and call for
violence against their political opponents. That's how things
like Meiktila begin.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Epithets are one thing, but what I DO consider to be really dangerous
is when the President's union supporters declare war and call for
violence against their political opponents. That's how things
like Meiktila begin.

Actually, "things like Meiktila" begin many, many lost decades back when whatever group did whatever to mortally offend whatever other-group. Hutus didn't start killing Tutsis just because some asswipe on the radio called them 'cockroaches' -- in fact, the asswipe wasn't even meaningfully causative at all.

There's a context, underlying, supporting, and flavoring whatever current events. Boomers as a class seem severely disinclined (or incapable, though I tend to find the former a more charitable interpretation) to make the effort to grok things in the fullness of their contexts. Doing so is more than sufficient to recognize that the surface parallels are only that -- superficial.

But Prophets are enamored with the superficial, after all...

*** 7-Apr-13 World View -- Egyptian protesters demand end to ties with Iran and 'Shia Islam'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egyptian protesters demand end to ties with Iran and 'Shia Islam'
• Cuba's Fidel Castro warns North Korea not to start a war
• Labor participation rate continues to fall

****
**** Egyptian protesters demand end to ties with Iran and 'Shia Islam'
****


Egyptian protesters raise their shoes outside the Iranian ambassador's residence in Cairo (AFP)

Sunni Muslim Egyptian protesters from the Salafist al-Nour party and
other Salafist parties are launching campaigns against the steps taken
by Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi to reach a rapprochement
with Shia Muslim Iran. The most frequent chants from the protesters
were "Egypt will not become Shia, oh ambassador of Iran," and "Listen,
Muslim Brotherhood, we do not want relations with Iran." The
protesters are demanding that bilateral agreements between the two
countries be revoked, and that Iranian tourism to Egypt be rejected.
The Salafists are also planning to hold seminars to educate citizens
about the "danger of Shias."

Sunni versus Shia enmity is increasing throughout the Mideast,
especially propelled by the conflict in Syria. The new protests
represent a new split between Egypt's two major Islamist groups, the
"moderate" Muslim Brotherhood versus the Salafists. Tensions between
these two groups have been growing anyway as Egypt's economy has
tanked, but the anti-Shia protests are an important development.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Mideast is headed
for a major regional war pitting Sunni Muslims against Shia Muslims
and Jews against Arabs.

This story is interesting because it illustrates one of the techniques
of Generational Dynamics forecasting. Most media would ignore this
story as unimportant. But once you know from Generational Dynamics
that the long-term trend is an increase in Sunni-Shia belligerence,
eventually leading to all out war, then you know that a story about
Sunni protesters against Shia rapprochement has the potential to be
highly significant. Al-Bawaba (Jordan) and Egypt Independent

****
**** Cuba's Fidel Castro warns North Korea not to start a war
****

Cuba's former dictator Fidel Castro, now 86, is no longer the
young revolutionary he once was, and appears to have mellowed,
if we're to judge by his advice to another young dictator,
Kim Jong-un of North Korea:

<QUOTE>"Do not confuse the existence of intelligent life with
the existence of life, from their elementary forms in our solar
system emerged millions of years ago. ...

This introduction would be too long if it was not to explain the
severity of an event so incredible and absurd as is the situation
created in the Korean peninsula, in an area where there are nearly
5 billion of 7 billion people that currently inhabit the
planet. ...

I was honored to meet Kim Il Sung, a historical figure, remarkably
brave and revolutionary.

If war breaks out there, people on both sides of the Peninsula
will be terribly slaughtered, with no benefit to any of them. The
Republic of Korea was always friendly with Cuba, and Cuba has
always been and will remain with it.

Now that has demonstrated its technical and scientific progress,
we remind her duties with the countries that have been his great
friends, and it would be unfair to forget that such special way
war would affect more than 70% of the planet's population.

If there is a conflict erupted such, the Government of Barack
Obama in his second term would be buried by a deluge of images
that would present the most sinister character in American
history. The duty to avoid this is also his and the American
people."<END QUOTE>

Apparently Castro's remarks have made no impression on North Korea's
child dictator, as he continues to threaten war and paint himself into
a corner. Granma (Havana) (Trans)

****
**** Labor participation rate continues to fall
****


Labor Participation Rate, 1948-present (St. Louis Fed)

Friday's disastrous jobs report showed that only 88,000 jobs
were created in March, well below the several hundred thousand
that are needed just to keep up with population growth. At the
same time, the unemployment rate fell slightly. The explanation
for these seemingly conflicting stats is that some 500,000 people
left the workforce -- and not just retiring Boomers either. Over
3/4 of those leaving the work force were under age 55, indicating
that a lot of people are simply giving up the search for work.

The interesting issue is how to interpret that above graph,
which shows the Labor Participation Rate since the end of
World War II. Here is my explanation:

• The labor force participation rate began to take
  off in the 1960-70s. This was the time when all the
  new businesses that had been born during the Great Depression
  years reached their peak of inventiveness and growth, resulting
  in sharp wage inflation and huge demand for workers at all
  skill levels. This pulled more and more people into the
  work force.
  
• The rate leveled off starting in the late 1980s. At this
  time, the increased power of labor unions was making
  companies less efficient and less willing to hire, while
  increases in welfare payments and other transfers made it
  more lucrative for many people to stay at home, rather than
  work.
  
• The rate began to fall in the early 2000s. This was the time when
  thousands of manufacturing firms were shutting down because goods
  could be purchased more cheaply from China. Businesses that had been
  innovative in the 1970s were now bogged down in bureaucracy and labor
  union contracts, making it even more difficult to hire.

Today there are many new impediments to hiring -- ObamaCare and the
sequester, in particular. Reuters and St. Louis Fed


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Salafists, al-Nour,
Sunni, Shia, Iran, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Cuba, Fidel Castro, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
unemployment, labor participation rate

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*** 8-Apr-13 World View -- Muslim vs Coptic Christian clashes in Egypt grow in intensity

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Muslim vs Coptic Christian clashes in Egypt grow in intensity
• U.S. delays missile test, while North Korea prepares for one
• China's Xi Jinping apparently criticizes North Korea
• Portugal is about to be the next eurozone crisis

****
**** Muslim vs Coptic Christian clashes in Egypt grow in intensity
****


Coptic Christians flee teargas on the cathedral roof on Sunday (Reuters)

Seventeen people were injured on Sunday in clashes between Muslims and
Coptic Christians after a funeral ceremony at a Coptic Orthodox
cathedral near Cairo. The funerals were for four Christians who,
along with one Muslim, were killed on Friday in some of the worst
sectarian violence in months. Panic erupted on Sunday among angry
Coptic men, armed with sticks and rocks, who rushed to an adjacent
building from which rocks, and then firecrackers and Molotov
coc,tails, were being thrown. Gunshots could also be heard. Copts
are demanding military protection for the churches. Egypt's president
Mohamed Morsi condemned the violence, and said, "I consider any attack
on the cathedral an attack against myself." However, much of the
anger expressed by both Copts and Muslims was directed at Morsi's
Muslim Brotherhood. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** U.S. delays missile test, while North Korea prepares for one
****

The United States has been under international pressure to avoid
"provoking" the fears and anxieties of the North Koreans, who have
been getting increasingly bellicose each day. For this reason, the
U.S. has decided to delay a long-planned missile test scheduled for
next week, "to avoid any misperception or miscalculation." This comes
just as South Korea's presidential office says that it expects the
North Koreans to test-fire a missile around April 10, which is the
date by which the North Koreans have asked that all personnel from
foreign embassies in Pyongyang be evacuated.

North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is sure to characterize the
U.S. decision as a forced retreat by the Americans, who are afraid of
an attack by the North Koreans.

Having said that, there's a possibility that this "victory" by the
North Koreans will give them an opportunity to back down from further
provocations, at least for a while. However, even in that optimistic
scenario, the North Koreans will learn from this "victory" that they
can do anything they want and get away with it. Reuters and Arirang (Seoul)

****
**** China's Xi Jinping apparently criticizes North Korea
****

In a speech on Sunday, China's new president Xi Jinping gave a keynote
address describing China's rise, emphasizing that China will always be
at peace with its neighbors. He appeared to take a slap at the North
Koreans:

<QUOTE>"Second, we should work together to uphold peace so as
to provide security safeguard for boosting common development.
Peace is the ever-lasting wish of our people. Peace, like air and
sunshine, is hardly noticed when people are benefiting from it.
But none of us can live without it. Without peace, development is
out of the question. Countries, whether big or small, strong or
weak, rich or poor, should all contribute their share to
maintaining and enhancing peace. Rather than undercutting each
other's efforts, countries should complement each other and work
for joint progress.

The international community should advocate the vision of
comprehensive security, common security and cooperative security
so as to turn our global village into a big stage for common
development, rather than an arena where gladiators fight each
other.

And no one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole
world into chaos for selfish gains. With growing interaction
among countries, it is inevitable that they encounter frictions
here and there. What is important is that they should resolve
differences through dialogue, consultation and peaceful
negotiations in the larger interest of the sound growth of their
relations."<END QUOTE>

The purposely ambiguous sentence about allowing no one to throw the
world "into chaos" is thought to be a reference to North Korea, but
that's far from clear, since Xi has made similar statements in its
criticisms of the United States.

At any rate, the North Koreans are certainly not going to pay any
attention. The North Koreans can ignore the Chinese for the same
reason that American Democrats can ignore the blacks, and Republicans
can ignore the evangelicals -- those groups have nowhere else to do.

In his inspirational homage to peace and harmony, Xi didn't bother to
mention that China has been using its vast military power to bully,
threaten and attack neighbors in order to gain control over vast
regions of the South China Sea, including islands that historically
belong to other nations. Shanghai Daily

****
**** Portugal is about to be the next eurozone crisis
****

Portugal's government is considering a plan to pay public workers and
pensioners one month of their salary in treasury bills (a kind of
IOU), rather than cash. The government was thrown into crisis on
Friday when the Constitutional Court ruled that said cuts in the wages
and pensions of public employees were unfair because they targeted
only the public sector. The cuts were part of an austerity plan to
cut 1.3 billion euros from the budget in 2013, in order to qualify to
receive the next payment in its bailout loan from Europe and the IMF.

Portugal's prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho gave a somber televised
speech to the nation on Sunday evening saying that the Constitutional
Court decision is causing problems:

<QUOTE>"After this decision by the Constitutional Court, it's
not just the government's life that will become more difficult, it
is the life of the Portuguese that will become more difficult and
make the success of our national economic recovery more
problematic. ... [The ruling] introduces uncertainty into a
process that is already very demanding."<END QUOTE>

Now the government is going to be forced to find another way to cut
1.3 billion euros from the budget, or face losing the next bailout
loan payment. And so, with the latest Cyprus bailout crisis easing
into history, a new bailout crisis in Portugal is looming.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there does not exist
a solution to Europe's financial crisis, since the credit and real
estate bubbles of the mid-2000s decade are still collapsing, and will
continue to collapse into the 2020s. At some point, there will be a
major global panic and financial crisis greater than what happened in
1929. Zero Hedge and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslims, Coptic Christians,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
China, Xi Jinping, South China Sea,
Portugal, Pedro Passos Coelho

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*** 9-Apr-13 World View -- Greece may demand 162 billion euros in WW II reparations from Germany

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea pulls its 53,000 workers out of industrial complex
• Greece is in negotiations again for next bailout payment
• Greece may demand 162 billion euros in WW II reparations from Germany
• Syria redeploys soldiers away from border with Israel

****
**** North Korea pulls its 53,000 workers out of industrial complex
****


Kaesong industrial complex

For many days we heard analysts say that everything North
Korea said was just bluster, because the Kaesong industrial
park, the cooperative venture with South Korea, was still
operating. But then the North Korean announced that South
Korean workers would not be allowed to return. And now,
on Monday, the North Koreans pulled out the 53,000 North Korean
workers from Kaesong, effectively shutting it down.

No one knows what's going to happen next, though people are worried.
A number of people have suggested that "something" is going to happen
between April 10 and April 15, the latter date being the birthday of
revered North Korean founder Kim Il-sung. A North Korean military
attack on South Korea or on U.S. assets is a possibility, but is
generally discounted. It appears that the most likely possibilities
are a new nuclear weapon test, or a new missile test. CNN

****
**** Greece is in negotiations again for next bailout payment
****

Yesterday I wrote that Portugal would be the next eurozone bailout
crisis, but Greece is right up there with Portugal. Greece is
resuming negotiations with the "troika" of organizations bailing out
Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank
(ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The main issue will
be layoffs. There are some 4,000 civil servants who have been accused
of breaking a code of conduct, and everyone agrees that they will be
fired. But the troika wants more layoffs, and that's going to be a
major contentious issue. These issues have to be resolved before the
next 2.8 billion euro and 6 billion euro loan installments can be
paid. Agreement was supposed to have been reached last month, but as
usual, negotiations have been put off as long as possible. The real
drop-dead date is May 20, when Greece has to pay 5.6 billion euros in
payment for bonds that are set to expire. Kathimerini

****
**** Greece may demand 162 billion euros in WW II reparations from Germany
****

A top-secret Greek report has been partially released to the press,
and it comes to the conclusion that Germany owes Greece as much as 162
billion euros in World War II reparations. According to the report,
"Greece never received any compensation, either for the loans it was
forced to provide to Germany or for the damages it suffered during the
war." That money would go a long way to relieving Greece's debt,
allowing it to return to full wasteful spending mode for a couple of
years before it gets into trouble again. However, Germany has no
interest in revisiting the question of reparations to Greece, and
Greek leaders are afraid to "pick a fight" with the country that's
mostly responsible for approving or rejecting bailouts. However, the
Greek public has a different view, and this report "has detonated like
a bomb" among Greek people who are already inclined to refer to German
Chancellor Angela Merkel as a Nazi. Spiegel

****
**** Syria redeploys soldiers away from border with Israel
****

A deadly car bomb exploded in Damascus, Syria, on Monday, killing at
19 and injuring dozens more. The opposition rebel forces to the
regime of president Bashar al-Assad have been attacking Damascus more
frequently, as they've been increasingly successful in penetrating the
regime's heavy security measures. In this case, rebel forces hid in
buildings prior to the bomb attack, and fired at security forces when
they arrived.

The bombing comes after the al-Assad regime has withdrawn large
numbers of troops, up to 20,000, from Syria's Golan Heights, near the
border with Syria, moving them to Damascus to provide greater security
there. Israel fears that the vacuum along the border will be filled
by jihadists will be use the area as a staging ground for attacks on
Israel itself, and is building up its own forces on the border.
Al-Jazeera and Guardian (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Korea, Kaesong, Kim Il-sung,
Greece, European Commission, European Central Bank,
International Monetary Fund, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Syria, Israel, Golan Heights, Bashar al-Assad

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*** 10-Apr-13 World View -- Japan deploys anti-missile systems after North Korean threats

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan deploys anti-missile systems after North Korean threats
• Slovenia denies that it needs a bailout
• Cyprus scandal deepens over big withdrawals prior to bank shutdown
• Donor nations pledge $3.6 billion in aid to Darfur

****
**** Japan deploys anti-missile systems after North Korean threats
****


Anti-missile systems deployed Tuesday in Japan's Camp Narashino (Kyodo)

North Korea's shrill, belligerent threats continued on Tuesday, as the
government warned all foreigners to leave the country immediately
because of an approaching war. Nobody really has any clue what to
expect from the North Koreans in the next few days, but the hope is
that it won't be anything worse than a new missile test. Nonetheless,
Japan is preparing for the worst, and is deploying Patriot
anti-missile air defense units to defend against possible North Korean
missile strikes. Japan has already deployed Aegis destroyers in the
Sea of Japan to monitor the possible launch of North Korean ballistic
missiles. Japan Times

****
**** Slovenia denies that it needs a bailout
****

A new report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) says that Slovenia faces an immediate banking
crisis, with non-performing loans making up 14% of bank balance sheets
in Slovenia, and that emergency action must be taken immediately.
According to the report:

<QUOTE>"Slovenia has been hit hard by a boom-bust cycle,
compounded by reform backlogs and the euro area sovereign debt
crisis. The reduction of public and private sector indebtedness is
significantly weighing on growth amid tight financial conditions,
growing unemployment and stalling export performance. Although
important reforms have been adopted in 2012 and early 2013,
additional and far-reaching reforms are needed as soon as possible
to restore confidence and head off the risks of a prolonged
downturn and constrained access to financial markets.

Slovenia is facing a severe banking crisis, driven by excessive
risk taking, weak corporate governance of state-owned banks and
insufficiently effective supervision tools. ...

Potential growth has fallen significantly since the outset of the
crisis. Boosting potential growth requires structural reforms, but
the political economy of reform remains difficult, notably because
it has been easy to use a referendum to veto a law. The ongoing
discussion in Slovenia on ways to introduce stricter criteria on
the use of referendums is hence welcome. Competition in the
product market is not vibrant enough -- notably as state ownership
is large and the Competition Authority has been lacking resources
-- to facilitate economic adjustment. The labour market is not
sufficiently flexible although an improvement is expected
following the adoption of a recent reform aimed to reduce
significantly labor market dualism."<END QUOTE>

So it sounds like Greece, Cyprus, and various other troubled
countries. The state owns too many businesses and pays labor union
members too much money, and has borrowed too much money to support
government expenses. The OECD is demanding that banks and other
public assets be sold off and privatized, a suggestion that's always
been wildly popular in other troubled countries.

Slovenia's prime minister, Alenka Bratusek, denies that a bailout is
required, saying that "The new government is determined to do
everything in its power to solve its problems by itself." However,
what she says is totally meaningless since, as we're all well aware,
country leaders always lie repeatedly about needing a bailout, and
always continue doing so until just a moment before they actually
request a bailout. OECD and
Guardian (London)

****
**** Cyprus scandal deepens over big withdrawals prior to bank shutdown
****

Six thousand individuals and legal entities withdrew tens of millions
of euros in cash from Cyprus's banks and sent it abroad in the period
from March 1-15, just days before the banks shut down and levied 60%
or more on large deposits. The Parliament's Ethic Committee began an
investigation, and demanded that the Cyprus central bank hand over a
list detailing transfers of more than 100,000 euros for the past year,
but the central bank failed to comply, according to an MP, Demetris
Syllouris:

<QUOTE>"It was with great disappointment and anger that, when
we opened the envelope, we realized it contained data for only 15
days even though we had asked for a year. This kind of behavior
is unacceptable."<END QUOTE>

Syllouris also raised concerns that even the 15 day list was
incomplete. The economy in Cyprus continues to worsen after the
bailout agreement, and the finger-pointing and name-calling are
expected to become vicious. Reuters and Kathimerini (Athens)

****
**** Donor nations pledge $3.6 billion in aid to Darfur
****


Darfur refugee camp

A donor conference meeting in Doha, Qatar, has pledged $3.6 billion
over six years to finance the development of Darfur. The pledges
include $500 million from Qatar, $35 million from the EU, $16.5
million from Britain, $1 million from Chad, and so forth. The pledges
are, in my opinion, a total joke because the pledges from similar
conferences in the past are almost always completely forgotten as soon
as the conference ends.

Darfur is like a terminally ill patient, semi-conscious in bed, where
he's being kept alive by dozens of tubes attached to his body,
delivering and removing various fluids.

Darfur's civil war began as low-level violence in the 1970s as a
fairly standard conflict between farmers and herders. What always
happens is that the herders' animals trample on the farmers' crops,
and then the farmers build fences to block the herders' animals. The
violence worsened over the years, and the conflict transitioned to a
generational crisis war in 2003, with the light-skinned "Arab"
Janjaweed militia herders slaughtering the dark-skinned "non-Arab"
farmers. That's when the United Nations "discovered" Darfur, and
launched a donation-based program to protect the farmers from the
herders. So the farmers were moved into huge refugee tent camps where
they became entirely dependent on aid and donations from foreign
entities. The financial crisis has reduced donations, and
starvation is widespread in the Darfur refugee camps.

As I've been writing for years, a generational crisis war is an
elemental force of nature, and has to reach a climax. At some point,
the Janjaweed militias will return to finish the job, slaughtering the
refugees like fish in a barrel. That will finally end the Darfur war.
AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, North Korea, Patriot system,
Aegis destroyers, Slovenia, Alenka Bratusek,
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD,
Cyprus, Demetris Syllouris, Qatar, Darfur

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*** 11-Apr-13 World View -- Is Germany the poorest country in Europe?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's al-Nusra Front pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda
• EU warns Spain, Slovenia, France of economic risks
• Is Germany the poorest country in Europe?
• Europeans debate how much to tax bank deposits in bailouts

****
**** Syria's al-Nusra Front pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda
****


Ayman al-Zawahiri

A new development has confirmed that Islamists jihadists are
infiltrating the opposition in Syria to the Bashar al-Assad regime.
The leaders of Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) in Syria have openly
announced their allegiance to al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Al-Qaeda links have been denied in the past, so this counts as a major
admission, confirming accusations by the U.S. and others. However,
the al-Nusra leaders were apparently forced into this admission
because of a tactical error by the leaders of al-Qaeda in Iraq, who
claimed that al-Nusra was part of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and that the two
organizations were going to merge. The al-Nusra leaders say that they
were caught by surprise by this announcement, and that they had no
intention of merging with al-Qaeda in Iraq, but then felt it necessary
to pledge allegiance to al-Zawahiri.

The pledge is thought to be a tactical blunder, because it will reduce
support for al-Nusra among Syrians. Al-Qaeda in Iraq is unpopular in
Syria because of its targeting of innocent civilians during the Iraq
war. Al-Nusra has been fairly popular with opposition Syrians, but
the admitted association with al-Qaeda will lead Syrians to fear that
al-Nusra will target civilians as well. Middle East Online and AFP

****
**** EU warns Spain, Slovenia, France of economic risks
****

Economic chaos continued in the eurozone on Wednesday, on multiple
fronts.

The European Commission warned Wednesday that Spain and Slovenia pose
the biggest economic risks and must quickly tackle excessive
imbalances while France's growing debt was turning into the eurozone's
"major challenge."

We already know that Slovenia is spiraling out of control, since the
prime minister said that no bailout will be needed. As we reported
yesterday, that's a sure sign that a bailout is needed, and soon.

Spain's banking system has already been bailed out, but still has
"very high domestic and external debt levels." Well, prime minister
Mariano Rajoy is promising to announce reforms on April 26 that will
solve the problem.

Among the remaining eurozone countries, France stands out:

<QUOTE>"[France's public debt] represents a vulnerability,
not only for the country itself but also for the euro area as a
whole.

France is a core country -- in terms of its size and its
geo-economic position. Its health has a very direct impact on the
overall health of the eurozone."<END QUOTE>

There may be some additional news this weekend, when eurozone
and EU finance ministers will meet in Dublin.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there does not exist
a solution to Europe's financial crisis, since the credit and real
estate bubbles of the mid-2000s decade are still collapsing, and will
continue to collapse into the 2020s. Economic Times (India)

****
**** Is Germany the poorest country in Europe?
****

The European Central Bank (ECB) has published a new report
entitled "The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey."
This report compares the different eurozone country on a wide
variety of financial and economic measures. Buried in the
middle of the report is the following data:


Median net household wealth in thousands of euros
Luxembourg 397.8
Cyprus 266.9
Malta 215.9
Belgium 206.2
Spain 182.7
Italy 173.5
France 115.8
Netherlands 103.6
Greece 101.9
Slovenia 100.7
Finland 85.8
Austria 76.4
Portugal 75.2
Slovakia 61.2
Germany 51.4


This is causing a new controversy for the obvious reasons.
Why is Germany, the poorest country in the eurozone, bailing
out Cyprus, the second wealthiest? Here's a headline from
German news service MNI:

<QUOTE>"ECB Data: Cypriots On Average Three-Times Richer
Than Germans

Cypriot citizens were on average more than three times wealthier
than their German counterparts before the crisis, according to a
European Central Bank study on household finance and consumption
released Tuesday.

The data may help to explain the Eurozone's reluctance to offer
more generous aid to Cyprus and political obstacles any further
bailout loans may face in the parliaments of northern Europe.

The study showed that citizens in AAA-rated countries that bear
the largest share of the Eurozone's bailout burdens enjoy
significantly less wealth than those in the
periphery."<END QUOTE>

Analysts have been scrambling to explain the controversial result. It
turns out that Germany has a low property ownership rate, while Cyprus
has a high rate, and property ownership is a big part of household
wealth. Furthermore, the figures are from 2010, when Cyprus's
property values were still at bubble levels. European Central Bank (ECB) and Market News International (Frankfurt)

****
**** Europeans debate how much to tax bank deposits in bailouts
****

The Cyprus bailout originally was going to tax small bank deposits
(under 100,000 euros) by 7%, and larger bank deposits by just under
10%. That was quickly changed, with the result that small bank
deposits were untaxed, but large bank deposits would be taxed by 60%.
Now the European Parliament is debating who's going to get hit in the
next bailout. According to the current debate, insured deposits
(under 100,000 euros) would be protected, but all uninsured deposits,
including interbank deposits, would be subject to tax (confiscation),
once debts owed to unsecured bondholders had been canceled.

There is a brand-new word floating around the European media: the
"bail-in". It refers to anyone whose money can be taxed (confiscated)
to pay for a bailout. Thus, uninsured bank deposits would be
bailed-in by the new rules, but insured bank deposits would not.
Reuters and Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Eurozone, Spain, Slovenia, France,
Mariano Rajoy, Germany, European Central Bank, ECB,
Cyprus, bail-in, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
al-Qaeda in Iraq, Ayman al-Zawahiri

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*** 12-Apr-13 World View -- Cost of Cyprus bailout explodes upward to 23 billion euros

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Imported rice found to have dangerously high levels of lead
• Cost of Cyprus bailout explodes upward to 23 billion euros
• A new mutation of H7N9 bird flu is Tamiflu resistant
• Pentagon: North Korea could deliver a nuclear weapon
• Iran claims to have invented a machine to predict the future

****
**** Imported rice found to have dangerously high levels of lead
****


Rice

Researchers from Monmouth University in New Jersey have found that
rice imported from China and Taiwan contains 30-60 times the levels of
lead permitted by the FDA. Samples of this imported rice were found
in America, Europe and South America, as well as in Asia. Rice
imported from the Czech Republic, Bhutan, Italy, India and Thailand
also contained high levels of lead. However, imports account for only
7 percent of the rice consumed in the United States. CBS News and American Chemical Society

****
**** Cost of Cyprus bailout explodes upward to 23 billion euros
****

The cost of the bailout of Cyprus, which had originally been estimated
at 17 billion euros, has now surged to 23 billion euros. In the
previous deal, the Europeans would provide a 10 billion euro loan, and
Cyprus would supply 7 billion euros, mostly by confiscating 60% of
bank deposits about 100,000 euros. Cyprus will be responsible for
coming up with the entire amount of the additional 6 billion euros.
The increase is the result of a worse than expected recession -- that
is, rosy, optimistic growth forecasts did not come true. It's likely
that the 60% confiscation for bank deposits will be raised
substantially. Cyprus is also considering the possibility of selling
off 400 million euros worth of gold reserves. However, this idea is
considered controversial because Cyprus will need those gold reserves
if it's forced to leave the eurozone currency after all.

In other European economic news, Greece's unemployment rate in January
rose to a new historic high, 27.2%, up from 25.7% in December. For
Greek youths, the unemployment rate was 59.3%. Cyprus Mail and AFP and Bloomberg

****
**** A new mutation of H7N9 bird flu is Tamiflu resistant
****

A gene mutation found in an H7N9 bird flu patient in Shanghai has
increased resistance to the two drugs used to treat the flu, Tamiflu
and Relenza, though experts say that further testing is required. The
new flu strain has sickened at least 33 people in China, killing nine.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta has
activated its Emergency Operations Center in response to the H7N9 bird
flu outbreak; Bloomberg and CIDRAP

****
**** Pentagon: North Korea could deliver a nuclear weapon
****

The Pentagon's intelligence arm has assessed with "moderate
confidence" that North Korea has the ability to deliver a nuclear
weapon with a ballistic missile, though the reliability is believed to
be "low." Apparently, this information was mistakenly declassified by
the Pentagon, but its publication has raised the already high level of
anxiety over North Korea's next move. The U.S., South Korea and Japan
have all been on high alert, wondering what the North Koreans will do
-- launch a missile, conduct a nuclear weapons test, target someone,
test something, or whatever. There's a growing feeling that the North
Koreans are following a policy of such insanity that they might try
anything. Some analysts are suggesting that the reason for the
appearance of total insanity is that there's a major power struggle
going on in the government, and the child dictator Kim Jong-un may be
brought down. CNN

****
**** Iran claims to have invented a machine to predict the future
****

A scientist at Iran's state-run Center for Strategic Inventions has
invented "The Aryayek Time Traveling Machine." It will fit into a
briefcase, and will predict the 5-8 years of the future life of any
individual with 98% accuracy. It can also be used to predict wars and
oil prices. However, the prototype has not yet been launched because
"the Chinese will steal the idea and produce it in millions
overnight." Telegraph (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, rice, Monmouth University,
Cyprus, Greece, H7N9,
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC,
Pentagon, North Korea, Japan, South Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Iran, The Aryayek Time Traveling Machine

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*** 13-Apr-13 World View -- John Kerry says that North Korea's rhetoric is 'unacceptable'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• John Kerry says that North Korea's rhetoric is 'unacceptable'
• Cyprus residents in shock over new bailout terms
• Morgan Stanley's Mary Deatherage lies on CNBC

****
**** John Kerry says that North Korea's rhetoric is 'unacceptable'
****


South Korean President Park Geun-Hye shakes hands with John Kerry on Friday (Reuters)

Here's what American Secretary of State John Kerry said on
Friday during a visit to Seoul, Korea:

<QUOTE>"We are all united in the fact that North Korea will
not be accepted as a nuclear power. The rhetoric that we're
hearing from North Korea is simply unacceptable."<END QUOTE>

What is this supposed to mean? North Korea is already a nuclear
power, and has been for several years. So if that's not going to "be
accepted," does that mean that we're going to bomb North Korea's
nuclear facilities? What else could it possibly mean?

And what does it mean that the rhetoric "is simply unacceptable"?
Does that mean that we're going to bomb North Korea's child dictator
Kim Jong-un, the next time he opens his mouth? What else could it
mean?

The U.S. has been calling North Korea's actions and rhetoric
"unacceptable" for years, so much so that saying it again is just a
joke. It's the same thing as in Syria -- the U.S. has said over and
over again for two years that president Bashar al-Assad's bloody
slaughter of innocent Syrian women and child is "unacceptable," but he
just keeps going on slaughtering innocent women and children. Once
again, these statements are silly jokes.

Kerry added the following:

<QUOTE>"If Kim Jong-un decides to launch a missile, whether
it's across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be
choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community.
And it will be a provocation and unwanted act that will raise
people's temperatures.

I would say ahead of time that it is a huge mistake for him to
choose to do that because it will further isolate his country and
further isolate his people, who frankly are desperate for food,
not missile launches."<END QUOTE>

So, why would a missile test be a "huge mistake"? Does anyone
really believe that the North Koreans give a shit if they're
"further isolated"?

It's thought to be likely that the North Koreans will conduct
a missile test on Monday, April 15, the birthday of North
Korea's founder, Kim Il-sung. The assumption is further
that the missile test will not target Japan, South Korea or
the U.S., but will land in the ocean.

Question: In that scenario, should the U.S. try to shoot it down,
given that Kerry is saying that a missile test would be a "huge
mistake"?

• If we shoot it down, then Kim Jong-un has threatened nuclear
  war, though no one believes that he has the capacity to follow
  through, just as no one believes that the U.S. has the capacity to do
  anything about Kim's "unacceptable" rhetoric.
  
• If we try to shoot it down and fail, then we'll look like idiots,
  though at least we'll know for sure that our anti-missile systems
  don't work.
  
• If we don't try to shoot it down, then we'll still look like
  idiots, because Kerry's claim that it was a "huge mistake" will have
  been shown to be wrong, and Kim can just say that we were afraid to
  shoot it down.

So, the next few days ought to be fun. CBS News

****
**** Cyprus residents in shock over new bailout terms
****

Residents of Cyprus are wondering how things could possibly get any
worse, now that the size of the bailout has risen from 17.5 billion
euros to 23 billion, requiring Cyprus itself to contribute 13 billion
euros, rather than 7.5 billion. The government of Cyprus is blaming
the increase on the number of people who withdrew billions of euros in
advance of the bailout agreement, because they foresaw what might
happen (or, as some have said, because they were warned). Of course,
those people are thanking their lucky stars that they got their money
out before the 60% confiscation was imposed. But now the Cypriots are
trying to figure out where they're going to get the addition 5.5
billion euro contribution that they have to make to the bailout.
Supposedly it will be done by raising taxes and selling off state
assets, but things are still up in the air.

Meanwhile the Germans are showing no sympathy at all, and are
certainly not willing to increase their own contribution to the Cyprus
bailout. In fact, just the opposite is true -- some German
politicians are saying that the 5.5 billion euro increase proves that
there's no point in bailing out Cyprus at all, since the money would
just go to waste. Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, will vote next
week whether to approve the terms of the Cyprus bailout, and the
proposal is expected to pass, provided that Cyprus can prove that it
will be able to come up with the extra 5.5 billion. Cyprus Mail and Spiegel

****
**** Morgan Stanley's Mary Deatherage lies on CNBC
****


Mary Deatherage on Friday (CNBC)

I never cease to be absolutely astonished at how "experts" come on to
CNBC and tell open-mouthed lies to support their sales pitch, with no
corrections from the anchors. They simply make up any numbers they
want, and nobody says a word.

On Friday morning, I listened to Morgan Stanley's Mary Deatherage,
head of The Deatherage Group, described as a Wealth Advisor and Senior
Investment Management Consultant.

Deatherage was asked whether the stock market would go up from here.
She said:

<QUOTE>"Well look, under no circumstances could we ever say
that the market's frothy. The trailing price/earnings for the S&P
are 14.9 with a 2% yield. ... So nobody could say that it's
overvalued. So the question is: Does it go strong from
here?"<END QUOTE>

No, the trailing S&P 500 price/earnings ratio is not 14.9. She simply
made that number up out of thin air. The S&P 500 P/E ratio is 18.28
as of April 12, according to the Wall Street Journal. (See the figure at the bottom of the tables, on the left.)
And 18.28 is astronomically "frothy."

So Deatherage simply lied, because she wants you to buy stocks through
her, so she can make a lot of your money from commissions. So she's
defrauding her clients. Or maybe you'd prefer to believe that she
didn't know. In that case, she's a total moron, since knowing the S&P
500 P/E ratio is the most basic part of her job. Either way, you're
the total moron if you trust even a penny of your money to Deatherage
or to Morgan Stanley.

As was reported in January, a
recent court case has caused the release of hundreds of pages of
internal Morgan Stanley documents that show that, during the mid-2000s
decade, Morgan Stanley employees knowingly lied to clients by selling
them worthless securities, and saying they were rated "AAA." As I've
said many times, the same people are in the same jobs in the financial
industry, still looking for new ways to defraud people, which is what
Deatherage appears to be doing.

As I wrote in my 2013 Forecast ,
the S&P 500 price/earnings ratio has been way above average since
1995, and by the Law of Mean Reversion, this bubble will burst, and a
major panic will push stock prices below the Dow 3000 level. If
you don't believe that, then ask yourself why one stock broker
after another goes onto CNBC and lies about stock valuations.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, John Kerry, North Korea, South Korea,
Park Geun-Hye, Kim Jong-un, Kim Il-sung, Japan,
Cyprus, Germany,
Morgan Stanley, Mary Deatherage, CNBC

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If talk is cheap, silence is cheaper. (If you keep your mouth shut you won't put your foot in it).

*** 14-Apr-13 World View -- British scientists say that chemical weapons were used in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• British scientists say that chemical weapons were used in Syria
• Tensions rise in Greece over German war reparations
• Tea-leaf-readers say that North Korea is backing down

****
**** British scientists say that chemical weapons were used in Syria
****


Animal carcasses near Aleppo, Syria, allegedly killed by chemical weapons on March 23 (VOA)

British military scientists have found forensic evidence that chemical
weapons were used in the conflict in Syria. Analysis of a soil sample
smuggled out of Syria proved a chemical weapon has been used, although
the analysis could not determine whether the weapon was fired by
Syrian government forces or rebels. VOA and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Tensions rise in Greece over German war reparations
****

A German man was arrested in Athens, Greece, on Friday for allegedly
trying to smuggle nearly half a ton of gold and silver, as well as
300,000 euros cash, out of Greece, and take it all back to Germany.
The suspect was preparing to board a Lufthansa flight for Germany.

The timing of this incident is sensitive, because it comes as some
Greek officials are claiming that Germany owes Greece some billions of
euros in World War II war reparations. The reparations are for
personal injury and infrastructure damage during the war, as well as
repayment for loans that Greece was forced to make to the Nazis in
1942-44. Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is rejecting
the Greek claims:

<QUOTE>"I deem that such statements are
irresponsible. Instead of misleading the people in Greece it would
be better to show them the road to reform. ...

The issue was settled a long time ago. Paying reparations is out
of the question."<END QUOTE>

Tension is rising over this issue as eurozone finance ministers are
having an emergency meeting in Brussels to negotiate the terms of the
next bailout payment for Greece, another 10 billion euro loan. The
major disagreement is over the number of civil service employees that
Greece will have to lay off to qualify for the payment. BBC and Kathimerini and Euronews

****
**** Tea-leaf-readers say that North Korea is backing down
****

Experts who read tea leaves to try to figure out what the North
Koreans are going to do are pointing to a sign that might mean that
North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is backing down from the
hysterical series of threats that he's used to fill the world news
over the last few days. According to South Korean intelligence
sources, the North Koreans have stopped moving their mobile missile
launchers, and haven't moved them for two whole days. The tea leaf
readers are taking this as a hopeful sign that the North Koreans are
not planning a missile launch on Monday after all. Other experts are
saying that it's only a matter of time before the North Koreans put a
nuclear weapon on a missile and launch it. Yonhap (Seoul)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, chemical weapons,
Greece, Germany, war reparations, Wolfgang Schaeuble,
North Korea, South Korea

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*** 15-Apr-13 World View -- Turkey warns Israel against 'dirty bargaining' over flotilla compensation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey warns Israel against 'dirty bargaining' over flotilla compensation
• Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad resigns
• Cyprus offers citizenship to wealthy Russian oligarchs
• North Korea keeps the world guessing

****
**** Turkey warns Israel against 'dirty bargaining' over flotilla compensation
****


People gather in front of the Mavi Marmara boat where pictures of the Israeli raid's victims are shown. (Hurriyet)

Israel apologized last month for the deaths of nine Turkish citizens
on May 31, 2010, in a confrontation between Israel's navy and the boat
Mavi Marmara in a flotilla headed for Gaza in violation of Israel's
Gaza blockade. However, still to be settled is the question of how
much money Israel is going to have to pay to the families of the nine
victims. Rumors are that Israel will offer $100,000 for each victim.
Talks will begin next week, and they're not expected to be easy.
According to a Turkish diplomatic source:

<QUOTE>"Israel should perfectly know that this is not a
process of bargaining. Compensation talks should not be turned
into horse trading or dirty bargaining. We want to solve this
issue in next week's talks."<END QUOTE>

Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is maintaining a hard
line against Israel despite the apology. He announced on Sunday that
he will stick to his plan to visit Gaza in May, and he insisted that
Turkey will not send an ambassador to Israel unless Israel lifts the
blockade of Gaza.

Israel apologized to Turkey last month because of the encouragement of
American president Barack Obama during his visit last month, because
he wanted Turkey and Israel to cooperate on issues involving Syria and
Iran. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Zaman (Istanbul)

****
**** Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad resigns
****

The resignation of Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad is being
described by analysts as a major blow to the Obama administration's
plans to revive the "peace process," especially since Secretary of
State John Kerry met with Fayyad in Ramallah two weeks ago, and asked
him NOT to resign. I can't imagine what those analysts are talking
about, since the "peace process" has been dead as a door nail for
years, and is less likely to be revived than Hugo Chavez.

Salaam Fayyad was educated in the U.S. as an economist, and he's
worked for World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He's
credited with developing the financial stability required for the
creation of the state of Palestine, but he's also been heavily
criticized because of the weakening Palestinian economy in the West
Bank.

His resignation is said to be the result of bitter disagreements with
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. Fayyad is also extremely dislike
by the leaders of Hamas, who accuse him of being dupes for Israel,
despite his many denunciations of Israeli settlements in the West
Bank. AFP and Bloomberg

****
**** Cyprus offers citizenship to wealthy Russian oligarchs
****

In an attempt to save its financial services industry (called an
"illegal tax haven" industry by some), Cyprus is looking for ways to
attract investors again. And it's offering fast-track Cyprus
citizenship to any foreigner who lost 3 million euros or more as a
result of the 60% confiscation of depositors' accounts. And with
Cyprus citizenship automatically comes European Union citizenship.
It's hoped that the offer will be particularly appealing to Russian
oligarchs who lost a lot of money in the bailout confiscation, and
that they'll be tempted to try again. Cyprus has run a "citizenship
by investment" program for years, open to any foreigner who invests 10
million euros in Cyprus, but now those requirements are going to be
reduced considerably. Russia Today and Reuters

****
**** North Korea keeps the world guessing
****

Monday, April 15, is the birthday of North Korea's founder Kim
Il-sung, and all eyes are on North Korea to see what it will do to
celebrate. South Korean intelligence says the North has had two
medium-range missiles primed and ready to fire for nearly a week, and
many observers believe that Monday will be the likely launch date.
AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Israel, Mavi Mamara,
Gaza, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Iran,
Palestine, Salaam Fayyad, Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas,
Cyprus, Russia, European Union, North Korea

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