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Thread: Generational Dynamics World View - Page 22







Post#526 at 04-27-2013 01:41 PM by JDG 66 [at joined Aug 2010 #posts 2,116]
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04-27-2013, 01:41 PM #526
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
It stops when we stop covering their bets ...
-Congratulations Mr. Horn. I agree with you. The words you've been waiting to hear, I'm sure.
Last edited by JDG 66; 04-27-2013 at 01:44 PM.







Post#527 at 04-27-2013 10:06 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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28-Apr-13 World View -- Qatar and Saudi Arabia funneling money to Syria jihadists

*** 28-Apr-13 World View -- Qatar and Saudi Arabia funneling money and weapons to Syria jihadists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Syria calls chemical weapons claims a 'barefaced lie'
  • UK's David Cameron says that 'the lessons of Iraq have been learned'
  • Qatar and Saudi Arabia funneling money and weapons to Syria jihadists
  • Future of Korea's Kaesong industrial park in doubt after South pulls out workers


****
**** Syria calls chemical weapons claims a 'barefaced lie'
****





Syria's information minister Omran Ahed al-Zouabi said on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"First of all, I want to confirm that statements by
the US Secretary of State and British government are inconsistent
with reality and a barefaced lie. I want to stress one more time
that Syria would never use it - not only because of its adherence
to the international law and rules of leading war, but because of
humanitarian and moral issues."<END QUOTE>

This is a totally laughable statement from the sleaziest and most
disgusting regime on the planet today. The regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad started by slaughtering peaceful protesters,
then moved on to massacring women and children in their beds, as well
as young college students asleep in their dormitories, and forcing
millions of innocent people from their homes to become refugees in
Syria and in neighboring countries. Bashar al-Assad is a man with no
morals whatsoever, a man who is worthy of a sewer, with no credibility
at all. His word isn't worth spit. There is no doubt whatsoever that
he would use chemical or biological methods to kill or torture
innocent civilians.

It's not surprising that al-Zouabi's statement ran in "Russia Today."
Russia and Iran are actively contributing to the massacre of innocent
women and children, and no doubt would supply chemical or biological
weapons to al-Assad if he didn't already have them. We're seeing
massive, historical crimes being committed here, and Russia and Iran
are just as culpable as al-Assad. Russia Today

****
**** UK's David Cameron says that 'the lessons of Iraq have been learned'
****


British prime minister David Cameron says that he fears that
international action in Syria may be being held back because of fears
of a repeat of the Iraq war. The Americans and the British justified
the 2003 ground invasion of Iraq because Iraq had developed and used
chemical and biological weapons in the past, and international
intelligence services were finding that Saddam Hussein was still
stockpiling similar weapons. Cameron says that the Iraq experience
may cause the West to fail to act in Syria:

"I choose my words carefully, but what I see does look very much
like a war crime is being committed in our world, at this time, by
the Syrian government.

I would want to reassure people and say the lessons of Iraq have
been learned. There are proper processes in place to try and make
sure that what people say is properly backed up by the
information.

If anything, I would argue that because people are so worried
about what happened in Iraq, it's actually quite important now to
come forward - as the Americans have done and I think [US
President] Barack Obama has done it in a very clear and measured
way. ...

Let me absolutely clear, I think the Iraq lesson must be about how
we marshal and use information and intelligence and I think that
lesson has been learnt - but I think it is very important for
politicians and leaders of this generation to look at what is
happening in Syria and ask ourselves what more we can do. ...

The reason we could act in Libya was because we had an
opportunity, if we acted quickly, to stop a dictator in his
tracks. We could do that. It is very important that the ability is
there and we have to think about that carefully."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]

The political pressure for Western military intervention in Syria
appears to be growing. But after over two years of war, military
intervention in Syria may just lead to total chaos. BBC

****
**** Qatar and Saudi Arabia funneling money and weapons to Syria jihadists
****


Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been supporting the opposition to the
regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, by providing money and
weapons to the opposition militias. It increasingly appears that the
Qataris and Saudis have been competing with each other for influence
among opposition militias. This extends to the al-Qaeda linked
al-Nusra Brigade, with both countries providing money and weapons to
rival groups of jihadist fighters. This comes at a time when
thousands of fighters from Iran-backed Shia militias supporting
al-Assad, and Sunni jihadists fighting al-Assad are pouring into the
country.

At the same time, sectarian violence is growing in Iraq, with 215 people
killed in just the last five days. Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki blames
the increase in sectarian violence on the strife in Syria:

<QUOTE>"[This strife] came back to Iraq, because it began in
another place in this region. Sectarianism is evil, and the wind
of sectarianism does not need a license to cross from a country to
another, because if it begins in a place, it will move to another
place.

Strife is knocking on the doors of everyone, and no one will
survive if it enters, because there is a wind behind it, and
money, and plans."<END QUOTE>

I have no way of knowing what would have happened if the West had
intervened in Syria two years ago, when the al-Assad regime started
its extermination slaughter of innocent protesters. Any such attempt
at intervention was blocked by the Russians, who claimed that military
intervention would make things much worse in Syria. That Russian
claim has by now been pretty much proven completely wrong, as it's
hard for anyone to argue that any action would have been a worse
disaster for Syria than the current state of non-action. But at least
the Russians still have their naval base at Tartus, so they can be
proud of themselves, no matter how many innocent women and children
are maimed, tortured, or exterminated. The Russians certainly know
how to set priorities. Telegraph (London)

****
**** Future of Korea's Kaesong industrial park in doubt after South pulls out workers
****


The very survival of the Kaesong industrial park in North Korea,
thought to be the last remaining symbol of cooperation between North
and South Korea, is in doubt after South Korea decided Friday to
withdraw all of its workers there. North Korea pulled out all its
53,000 workers on April 9, as part of its war threat circus. South
Korea demanded to hold talks with the North over Kaesong, and the
North refused that invitation. So on Friday, the South said it will
put out all of its 175 workers remaining in Kaesong. The closure of
Kaesong will deprive the North of tens of millions of dollars, and
will discourage foreign investment in North Korea. It will also
increase the level of hostility between the two nations. Yonhap (Seoul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Iran,
David Cameron, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Al-Nusra Brigade, Nouri al-Maliki,
North Korea, Kaesong Industrial Park, South Korea

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Post#528 at 04-28-2013 10:19 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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29-Apr-13 World View -- Taliban terror campaign seeks to sabotage Pakistan elections

*** 29-Apr-13 World View -- Taliban terror campaign seeks to sabotage Pakistan elections

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • The Generational Dynamics view of Syria's conflict
  • Russian migrants to Israel form closed ultra-nationalist community
  • China preparing for popular unrest following Sichuan earthquake
  • Taliban terror campaign seeks to sabotage Pakistan elections
  • Greece passes bill ending lifetime guarantee of civil service job


****
**** The Generational Dynamics view of Syria's conflict
****



Syrian army shells exploding last year in the Syrian village of Bariqa (AP)

I frequently receive questions about the nature of Syria's
conflict, in particular why it isn't a generational crisis war,
since it seems horrible enough to qualify.

The Syria conflict is a typical generational Awakening era war (like
America's Vietnam war in the 1960s). There is little energy on either
side. There's little hand-to-hand or face-to-face combat. Besides a
few gunfights, most of the war is fought by shooting missiles or
exploding remote-control bombs. If it were a crisis war, you'd see a
lot more of what happened, for example, in Cambodia's killing fields
or in 1994 Rwanda -- or in 1982 Syria.

The major behavioral characteristic of a generational crisis war is
that the value of an individual human life plummets to zero, while the
only thing that's important is the survival of the country or ethnic
group and its way of life. America's last generational crisis war was
WW II, and remember that we sent thousands of soldiers onto the
beaches of Normandy, to be shot down like fish in a barrel by the
Nazis. Did we do anything like that in the Korean War? The Vietnam
War? The Iraq War? Absolutely not.

I've analyzed probably hundreds of wars throughout history in the last
ten years, and I've developed a pretty good intuition about what
direction they're going in. However, I don't want to convey the
impression that it's all intuition. To the contrary, it would be
possible to define behavioral and attitudinal metrics that would
provide some clear distinctions. However, this would be a big
research project, too big for me to attempt on my own. Perhaps some
grad student in the 2020s will take it on. But understanding the
generational classification of a war would make a HUGE difference in
improving policy decisions, both during the war and in the aftermath
when the combatants are trying to recover and resume normal lives.

Returning now to Syria, in the end it's going to make little
difference that Syria's war is an Awakening era war, since it's
turning into a proxy war between Crisis era countries -- Russia
supporting al-Assad, Saudi Arabia and Qatar supporting the jihadists,
and Europe half-heartedly supporting the other opposition. Without
Russia's support in particular, this war would have petered out a year
ago, in my opinion. But it's increasingly clear that Russia is
determined to push it to victory, and the Arab countries are going to
oppose that.

****
**** Russian migrants to Israel form closed ultra-nationalist community
****


When a young generation of Russian Jews migrated to Israel after the
collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, it was expected that they
would assimilate into the general population, especially since the
pre-1948 Jewish community in Palestine was shaped by immigrants from
Czarist and early revolutionary Russia. However, the opposite
happened. The Russian migrants live in a separate community,
comprising 20% of the total Israel population. The speak Russian,
read Russian newspapers, have little contact with other Israelis, know
little of Israel's history, and vote for their own party, led by
ultra-nationalist Avigdor Lieberman. They hate Arabs, reject peace
and support the settlers. Soviet Russian contempt and rampant racism
directed at dark-skinned citizens from southern Russia has translated
in Israel into contempt and racism directed towards Arabs and even
other Israelis.

Israeli society consists of five main sectors, of almost equal size,
as follows:

  • Jews of European origin, called Ashkenazim, to which most of
    the cultural, economic, political and military elite belongs. The Left
    is almost completely concentrated here.
  • Jews of Oriental origin, often called (mistakenly) Sephardim, from
    Arab and other Muslim countries. They are the base of Likud.
  • Religious Jews, which include the ultra-Orthodox Haredim, both
    Ashkenazi and Oriental, as well as the National-Religious Zionists,
    which include the leadership of the settlers.
  • Arab-Palestinian citizens, mostly located in three large
    geographical blocs.
  • The "Russians".


The Arabs and many of the Ashkenazim belong to the left-wing peace
camp, and all the others are solidly right-wing. Uri Avnery - Palestine Chronicle

****
**** China preparing for popular unrest following Sichuan earthquake
****


On Saturday, April 20, a 7.0-magnitude earthquake struck Sichuan
province in China, followed by thousands of aftershocks, killing
hundreds and affecting over 2.3 million people in Sichuan. This
occurs five years after the May 12, 2008 8.0-magnitude earthquake
claiming nearly 70,000 lives. Beijing poured aid into the region,
including some 3,000 soldiers and 120 tons of relief materials.

However, public fury is growing as it turns out that thousands of
government-built houses, schools and other buildings built since the
2008 earthquake did not survive the new earthquake, while many
privately-built buildings survived. Local residents are saying that
around 10,000 troops and armed police have arrived in the region by
Thursday, not to provide humanitarian aid, but to suck up resources
and guard against feared popular unrest amid widespread anger over the
rescue operation and the level of damage to buildings. Beijing Review and Radio Free Asia

****
**** Taliban terror campaign seeks to sabotage Pakistan elections
****


At least 28 people have been killed in terrorist bombings across
Pakistan during the last week, targeting political party candidates
and offices in the days prior to the landmark May 11 election. The
al-Qaeda linked Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan branch
of the Taliban, is claiming responsibility for the bombings, and is
promising that they'll continue through the election, apparently with
the intention of sabotaging the entire election. The TTP is
specifically targeting the secular political parties, including the
Awami National Party (ANP), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the
Pakistan People's Party (PPP), which they claim are "secular doctrine"
parties. According to a spokesman for the TTP:

<QUOTE>"Islamic laws and values are from Allah and secular
doctrine is from Rousseau, Kant and Bentham. A man cannot be
secular and Muslim at a time. These are two different doctrines in
nature."<END QUOTE>

So far, the Taliban bombings have not attacked offices of Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI - the Pakistan Movement for Justice), which is
led by former cricket star Imran Khan, who is strongly anti-American,
though as far as I know, he hasn't expressed any hostility to Rousseau
and Kant. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Russia Today

****
**** Greece passes bill ending lifetime guarantee of civil service job
****


On Sunday evening, in its last session before Orthodox Easter Sunday
on May 5, Greece's parliament passed a bill ending the provision in
Greece's 1911 constitution that civil servants have lifelong job
security. These are the harshest austerity measures yet imposed by
the Europeans in return for its bailout. The bill calls for 15,000
civil servants to be dismissed by the end of 2014. All 15,000 will be
replaced by "young, capable people" in the same jobs with lower wages.
Greece now expects to receive its next 8.8 billion euro bailout
payment by mid-May. Kathimerini



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Vietnam, Cambodia, Rwanda,
Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Israel, Avigdor Lieberman, Ashkenazi, Sephardim, Haredim,
China, Sichuan, Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP.
Awami National Party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement,
Pakistan People's Party, Tehreek-e-Insaf, Imran Khan,
Greece

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Post#529 at 04-29-2013 10:56 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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30-Apr-13 World View -- North Korea holds an American and 7 S. Koreans as 'hostages'

*** 30-Apr-13 World View -- North Korea holds an American and 7 S. Koreans as 'hostages'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • France's Hollande announces military cuts of 34,000 jobs
  • North Korea holds an American and 7 S. Koreans as 'hostages'


****
**** France's Hollande announces military cuts of 34,000 jobs
****



Francois Hollande sits in an armored vehicle in January tribute to armed forces (Reuters)

France's president Francois Hollande announced on Monday that France
will cut 24,000 military jobs by 2019, on top of the 54,000 job cuts
already announced by former president Nicolas Sarkozy in 2008. This
comes at a time when Hollande's Socialist government is forced to
reduce state spending by 60 billion euros over the next five years.
France's military took part in the Libya intervention in 2011, and is
still involved in the intervention in Mali to drive back Islamist
rebels. At the same time, the operation highlighted its limitations
in mid-air refueling, troop transportation and intelligence gathering,
for much of which it relied on help from the United States. Reuters and AFP

****
**** North Korea holds an American and 7 S. Koreans as 'hostages'
****


North Korea's recent war threat circus seems to have ended now,
with no apparent action beyond the clownish rhetoric. Now
the child dictator Kim Jong-un seems to be pursuing a new policy:
taking hostages. As we've described several times, Kaesong
Industrial Complex was built in North Korea in 2004 as a joint
venture between the North and South, and was considered a symbol
of peaceful cooperation until a few weeks ago, when the North
Koreans suddenly withdrew their 53,000 workers from the project.
Since the North refused to negotiate, the South finally withdrew
its thousand or so employees, effectively shutting the complex
down. However, North Korea is holding seven South Koreans from
returning to the South, to "negotiate unpaid wages."

This comes at a time when North Korea is putting on trial an American
citizen named Kenneth Bae (Korean name Pae Jun-ho) who was
mysteriously arrested six months ago while leading a tour group into
the country. It's thought that Bae/Pae was arrested because he's a
Christian who's affiliated with Christian groups who had sometimes
aided North Korean defectors.

One possibility is that the North Koreans are taking Bae/Pae and the
seven South Koreans as hostages to gain negotiating leverage with the
west. In 2009, former President Bill Clinton flew to North Korea to
win the release of two American journalists who had been arrested. (I
heard one analyst quip that perhaps Kim Jong-un is hoping for a visit
from Hillary this time.) Former president Jimmy Carter made a similar
trip to North Korea in the past. The North Koreans always portray
these trips by high American officials as a major humiliation for
America. We'll have to wait and see what demands the North Koreans
will make in return for freeing these hostages. BBC and Business Insider


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Francois Hollande,
Nicolas Sarkozy, Mali, Libya,
North Korea, Kaesong industrial complex, Kim Jong-un,
Kenneth Bae, Pae Jun-ho, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter

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Post#530 at 04-30-2013 10:07 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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1-May-13 World View-Giddy politicians declare a 'sea change' in Mideast negotiations

*** 1-May-13 World View -- Giddy politicians declare a 'sea change' in Mideast negotiations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Giddy politicians declare a 'sea change' in Mideast negotiations
  • Pakistan government ignores terrorist extermination threats to Hazara Shias
  • Eurozone receives another disastrous unemployment report


****
**** Giddy politicians declare a 'sea change' in Mideast negotiations
****



Arab League meeting in Washington D.C. on Monday (AP)

The Arab League, meeting in Washington DC, of all places, had a "very
positive, very constructive discussion ... with positive results,"
according to Secretary of State John Kerry and VP Joe Biden. The
Associated Press, which is totally in the tank for the Obama
administration, gushed that it was a "sea change" in Mideast
negotiations. What was this result that will change the face of the
world and bring joy and happiness to all? Well, the Arab League
amended its 11-year-old "Arab Peace Initiative," that calls for
complete Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines, making east
Jerusalem the capital of Palestine. The "sea change" is that the Arab
League will now permit "minor land swaps" as part of the
Israeli-Palestinian agreement. I'm not kidding. That's the "sea
change." Get ready to pop the champagne corks. Jerusalem Post and Associated Press

****
**** Pakistan government ignores terrorist extermination threats to Hazara Shias
****


As we reported in February , the
al-Qaeda linked terror group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), an offshoot of
the Taliban, has claimed credit for massive horrific slaughter in
Quetta, Pakistan, of hundreds of Shias from the Hazara ethnic group by
huge truck bombs. A week ago, a truck bomb killed 6 people and
wounded dozens others when it was stopped at a checkpoint en route to
another Hazara terrorist target in Quetta.

According to an earlier LeJ statement:

<QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this
impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every
city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan. Like in
the past, [our] successful Jihad against the Hazaras in Pakistan
and, in particular, in Quetta is ongoing and will continue. We
will make Pakistan their graveyard-- their houses will be
destroyed by bombs and suicide bombers. ... Jihad against the Shia
Hazaras has now become our duty. ... We will rest only after
hoisting the flag of true Islam on the land of the pure --
Pakistan." <END QUOTE>

Despite these often repeated and brazen threats, neither Pakistan's
government nor the provincial governments are taking any steps to
prosecute LeJ leaders. Even when an LeJ leader is arrested, the
prosecutors make no attempt to collect sufficient evidence for a
trial, and the criminal has to be released, to conduct new terrorist
acts against the Hazaras. These developments give credence to
allegations that the Hazara Shias in particular and Shias at large,
like other minorities across Pakistan, are persecuted with connivance
of the state. South Asia Terrorism Portal

****
**** Eurozone receives another disastrous unemployment report
****



Eurozone unemployment rate, 2000-2013. Unemployment fell sharply during the giant credit bubble of 2000-2007, and has been rising steadily since the bubble burst. (eurostat)

Unemployment rose for the 8th consecutive quarter in the eurozone,
reaching 12.1%. In Greece and Spain, it was 27%. Among people under
25, the unemployment rate in Greece was up again to 59.1% and 55.9% in
Spain.

As bad as these figures are, the really important point is the trend,
and the fact that unemployment continues to worsen. All the "kick the
can down the road" moves that eurozone politicians made in 2010, 2011
and 2012 were with the expectation that the economy would be growing
by now. The fact that the economy continues to collapse means that
all of those decisions were based on faulty assumptions. As we now
think back to that famous utterance by former Eurogroup chairman
Jean-Claude Juncker, who said
,
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie," we can now conclude that
all those lies were of no use, and didn't change the outcome we're
seeing now. On the day of President Barack Obama's latest press
conference, we might hope (in vain) that all the politicians in
Washington learn a lesson -- whatever is going to happen is going to
happen, and telling one lie after another won't change that. Eurostat (PDF) and Economist


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Arab League, John Kerry, Joe Biden,
Arab Peace Initiative, Jerusalem,
Pakistan, Hazaras, Shias, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ,
Taliban, Quetta,
Eurozone, Greece, Spain, unemployment

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Post#531 at 05-01-2013 10:05 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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2-May-13 World View -- Buddhist on Muslim violence continues to spread in Burma

*** 2-May-13 World View -- Buddhist on Muslim violence continues to spread in Burma (Myanmar)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • May Day protests highlight financial crisis, worker exploitation
  • U.S. declares H7N9 bird flu a 'significant' public health danger
  • Buddhist on Muslim violence continues to spread in Burma (Myanmar)


****
**** May Day protests highlight financial crisis, worker exploitation
****



Indonesian workers dress as ants to protest worker exploitation (AFP)

In Jakarta, Indonesia, some of the tens of thousands of demonstrators
marching through the city came dressed as ants -- complete with bright
red outfits and antennae -- to depict the exploitation of workers.

Across Europe, May Day demonstrators protested against austerity
that has dramatically increased unemployment and dramatically
reduced benefits.

In Greece, public sector workers walked off the job in a one-day
strike. In France, marchers carried banners protesting Socialist
party president Francois Hollande saying, "Where are the real
socialists in our government?"

Probably the greatest labor anger on this May 1 took place in Dhaka,
Bangladesh, the site of a multi-story clothing factory that pancaked
and collapsed last week, killing thousands of workers. Across Asia,
workers are protesting poor building standards enforcement, and the
fact that similar disasters could happen at any time. Activists in
the UK have been wearing tee shirts saying, "A woman died in
Bangladesh so that I could wear this shirt." CS Monitor

****
**** U.S. declares H7N9 bird flu a 'significant' public health danger
****


With the continued spread and high death rate of the H7N9 bird flu in
China, America's department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is
authorizing the use of previously unauthorized diagnostic procedures.
According to HHS:

<QUOTE>"The Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) is
issuing this notice pursuant to section 564(b) of the Federal
Food, Drug, and Cosmetic (FD) Act.... On April 19, 2013, the
Secretary determined that there is a significant potential for a
public health emergency that has a significant potential to affect
national security or the health and security of United States
citizens living abroad and that involves the avian influenza A
(H7N9) virus.

On the basis of this determination, she also declared that
circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use
of in vitro diagnostics for detection of the avian influenza A
(H7N9) virus pursuant.... The Secretary also specified that this
declaration is a declaration of an emergency with respect to in
vitro diagnostics as defined under the Public Readiness and
Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act Declaration for Pandemic
Influenza Diagnostics, Personal Respiratory Protection Devices,
and Respiratory Support Devices."<END QUOTE>

The H7N9 bird flu virus has already had a mutation that allows it to
spread more easily among birds, and another mutation that allows it to
spread from birds to humans. It's believed that it's three mutations
away from turning into a serious pandemic that may kill tens or
hundreds of thousands of people.

This has nothing to do with how clever or competent government
agencies are in China or the U.S. or in the United Nations. This has
to do with complete luck -- whether the right combinations of genes
come together and recombine or mutate into a form that will spread
rapidly from human to human. Federal Register and BBC

****
**** Buddhist on Muslim violence continues to spread in Burma (Myanmar)
****



Muslims pour water on burning mosque in Okkan, Burma (VOA)

On Tuesday, a mob of hundreds of Buddhists descended on a Muslim
community in Okkan, Burma, hurled bricks and set hundreds of homes and
mosques on fire. Terrified Muslims fled to fields to escape the
attack, and came back to find that they'd lost all they had, with
their homes in piles of rubble. Violent attacks of this sort began
last year in Rakhine state in southwestern Burma, and have been
spreading to other villages, with the worst happening about a month
ago in central Burma. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
) Tuesday's attack brings the violence very
close to Rangoon (Yangon), Burma's largest commercial city. It's hard
to see how this spreading violence can continue much longer without
spiraling into a major war between Buddhists and Muslims that will
spread beyond Burma. BBC and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, May Day, Indonesia, Greece, France,
Bangladesh, H7N9 bird flu, Health and Human Services, China,
Burma, Myanmar, Buddhism, Okkan, Meiktila, Rangoon, Yangon

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Post#532 at 05-02-2013 10:14 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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3-May-13 World View -- European Central Bank considers negative interest rates

*** 3-May-13 World View -- European Central Bank considers negative interest rates

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Hezbollah leader Nasrallah says he will defend Syria's Assad militarily
  • Turkey's Erdogan will pressure Obama to intervene militarily in Syria
  • European Central Bank considers negative interest rates


****
**** Hezbollah leader Nasrallah says he will defend Syria's Assad militarily
****



People watch Nasrallah on television on Tuesday (Daily Star)

Syrian opposition leaders are denouncing the "threats" by Sayyed Hasan
Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanon's Iran-backed Shia terrorist group
Hezbollah. Nasrallah declared on television on Tuesday that Hezbollah
was already active militarily in Syria, and that Hezbollah and
possibly Iran would intervene further if necessary to prevent the
downfall of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. According to
Nasrallah:

<QUOTE>"Syria has real friends in the region and the world
that will not let Syria fall in the hands of America, Israel or
Takfiri [Salafist Sunni] groups. They will not let this happen.

We tell you that you [rebels] are unable to topple the regime
through military means. After two years and based on facts on the
field ... you have no ability to do so. This is the case when you
are now only fighting the Syrian army and the popular forces loyal
to the [government]. Up to this moment there are no Iranian forces
in Syria.

What if dangerous developments occur, forcing states or resistance
groups to step in the field in Syria? Whoever wants to save Syria
... feels sad for the daily bloodshed in Syria ... and does not
want the Palestinian cause to be lost ... should push for dialogue
and a political compromise."<END QUOTE>

The remarks were denounced by the Syrian National Council (SNC)
leaders, who said that they had "hoped" that Nasrallah would act
more responsibly, but they "have heard nothing but threats."
Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Arabiya (Dubai)

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan will pressure Obama to intervene militarily in Syria
****


During an upcoming visit by Turkey's prime minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Washington, Erdogan will tell Obama
that "it is clear" that the al-Assad regime is using chemical
weapons. He said on Thursday:

<QUOTE>"We will discuss the issue of chemical weapons with US
President Barack Obama during my visit to the US. It is clear that
[chemical weapons] are being used by Assad's regime. The
opposition outmatches the regime on the ground, but the regime
uses chemical weapons, war planes and helicopters. Air is the only
field in which the regime is ahead of the
opposition."<END QUOTE>

This is Turkey's first official confirmation that Syria has used
chemical weapons, and Erdogan is pressing for Western military
intervention in Syria. Zaman (Istanbul) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** European Central Bank considers negative interest rates
****


With the new bad economic data coming out of Europe almost on a daily
basis, the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi
announced a lower interest rate of 0.5%, the lowest in its history.

Draghi had resisted lowering the interest rate because of fear of
inflation. But the inflation rate in the eurozone has fallen sharply
in the eurozone during the past month, so Draghi felt that a lower
interest rate was justified. It's worth pausing a moment here to
point out again that for the last ten years I've been predicting a
global deflationary spiral during this generational Crisis era, while
mainstream economists and various politicians and pundits have been
predicting high or hyper inflation, and that they've been consistently
wrong ahd I've been consistently right.

The second reason that Draghi has resisted lower the interest rate
was because there was no reason to believe it would do any good.
The ECB has pumped trillions of dollars into the banking system,
allowing eurozone member nations to go even more deeply into debt
at cheap rates, and artificially boosting stock prices as all that
liquidity pours into the stock market. But none of the money
is being loaned to individuals or businesses, so the overall
economy is not being helped (which is what Generational Dynamics
has been predicting).

So now Draghi wants to try something else: Make interest rates
negative for money that individual banks deposit with the central bank
(the ECB). That deposit rate has been zero for a while, but now
Draghi is considering charging money to banks that want to deposit
money in the ECB. The reasoning is that if an individual bank can't
deposit its extra cash in the ECB, then it might loan it out to
private individuals or businesses (which Generational Dynamics says
won't happen). A negative interest rate is a sign of an accelerating
deflationary spiral, since it means that cash is actually becoming
more valuable with time, rather than increasingly worthless, as the
inflation pundits have been claiming. Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Syrian National Council,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, deflation

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Post#533 at 05-03-2013 10:52 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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4-May-13 World View -- Anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) surges in local elections

*** 4-May-13 World View -- Anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) surges in local elections

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) surges in local elections
  • U.S. shows Israel new bunker buster bomb for use in Iran
  • Israeli warplanes strike targets inside Syria
  • California law will fund seizure of legally purchased guns


****
**** Anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) surges in local elections
****



Jubilant UKIP leader Nigel Farage

The UK Independence Party (UKIP) won a stunning victory in local
elections, winning over 26% of the vote in those districts in which a
UKIP candidate ran. The party, which favors withdrawal of Britain
from the European Union, took votes away from the ruling coalition of
Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, as well as from the opposition
Labor party. According to jubilant UKIP leader Nigel Farage:

<QUOTE>"We have always done well in European elections [where
UKIP has 11 seats in the EU Parliament]..., but people havenít
seen us as being relevant to local elections or in some ways
general elections. So for us to be scoring, on average, 26 per
cent of the vote where we stand is I think very significant
indeed."<END QUOTE>

This is part of a trend that's dissolving Europe's traditional
left-of-center / center / right-of-center parliamentary democracy, in
favor of fringe parties and protest movements. In Greece and Italy,
the dissolution has already occurred. In France, Marine Le Pen and
the National Front party is campaigning against "Islamization" and the
euro. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) has
done well on a strongly anti-Islamist platform. Belgium, Hungary,
Denmark, Sweden, and Austria have also seen the rise of parties that
are anti-immigration or anti-euro or both. The Sun (London) and BBC

****
**** U.S. shows Israel new bunker buster bomb for use in Iran
****


For several years, it's been reported that America's largest "bunker
buster" bomber was not powerful enough to reach and destroy Iran's
Fordo nuclear enrichment complex, which is buried under a mountain
near the Iranian city of Qom. But the Pentagon has shown Israeli
leaders an Air Force video of a new version of the bunker buster
capable of destroying Frodo. The 30,000-pound "Massive Ordnance
Penetrator," or MOP, has adjusted fuses to maximize its burrowing
power, upgraded guidance systems to improve its precision and
high-tech equipment intended to allow it to evade Iranian air defenses
in order to reach and destroy Fordo. The specific political purpose
of the demonstration is to dissade the Israelis from conducting a
unilateral attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Ynet and
Debka

****
**** Israeli warplanes strike targets inside Syria
****


Intelligence reports in Washington indicate that Israel has staged air
strikes on targets within Syria. Lebanon's army web site is listing at
least 16 flights by Israeli warplanes over Lebanon's air space. It's
believed that the air strikes targets Syrian weapons that are being
transferred to the Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. It's believed
that conventional weapons (as opposed to chemical weapons) were
targeted. CNN and CBS News

****
**** California law will fund seizure of legally purchased guns
****


California's governor Jerry Brown has signed legislation that will
allocate $24 million to hire special agents that will track down and
seize guns from 20,000 Californians who has legally purchased guns,
but who have been disqualified from owning them due to mental illness
or a criminal conviction. According to one legislator, "We are
fortunate in California to have the first and only system in the
nation that tracks and identifies individuals who at one time made
legal purchases of firearms but are now barred from possessing them."
Russia Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, UK Independence Party, UKIP, Nigel Farage,
Israel, Iran, bunker buster bomb, Fordo,
massive ordnance penetrator, MOP, Israel, Lebanon, Syria,
Jerry Brown, California

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Post#534 at 05-04-2013 10:35 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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5-May-13 World View -- Wall Street stock market continues dangerous parabolic bubble

*** 5-May-13 World View -- Wall Street stock market continues dangerous parabolic bubble

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Wall Street stock market continues dangerous parabolic bubble
  • Libor banker fraud may be eclipsed by the ISDAfix fraud
  • Orthodox Jewish woman sues Lancome over makeup failure


****
**** Wall Street stock market continues dangerous parabolic bubble
****



Wall Street

Long-time readers are well aware of the Generational Dynamics
prediction that the world is headed for a major global financial panic
and crisis, causing all bubbles to implode, including the stock
market, commodity and gold bubbles. It's impossible to predict when
that will happen, or what event will trigger the panic, but every once
in a while I try to point out a time when things look particularly
dangerous.

One of those times is now. A couple of months ago, I warned that the
stock market was rising rapidly and becoming dangerously parabolic.
That parabolic rise is continuing. The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio
(also called "valuations") was at 18.45 on Friday morning, according
to the Wall Street Journal. Friday's huge stock market surge spiked the P/E ratio up
to 18.63 by the end of the day -- above the extremely high levels that
it reached during the massive real estate and credit bubble of the
2006-2007 time period. The S&P 500 P/E ratio has been above its
historical average (14) continuously since 1995, and by the Law of
Mean Reversion will crash to around 6 or lower, as it last did in
1982, and stock prices will fall proportionately.

According to my Dow Jones historical page, the market is now at 218% of its current long-term historical
trend line value of 6838. This is an extremely high bubble level,
though not as high as the 264% that it reached on the peak on October
8, 2007. However, this may indicate that the new parabolic bubble may
surge even further before crashing.

To say that there is no rational explanation for this parabolic stock
market spike is an understatement. China's economy is slowing, and
Europe's economy is going down the tubes, while America's economy is
about to be hit by the Obamacare train wreck and financial disaster.

The major factor causing the stock market spike is the Fed's
"printing" of $85 billion per month of new liquidity for banks.
According to mainstream "economists," that money should be going out
as loans to individuals and small businesses, which it is not.
Instead, that money is making its way to investment bankers and
wealthy investors who are using the money to expand the stock market
bubble. (See my report in 17-Apr-13 World View
for how wealthy investors can borrow millions of dollars
from Interactive Brokers at 1.3% interest and then invest the money in
the stock market.)

A second reason why money is pouring into Wall Street is apparently
that many investors are fleeing Europe. The Cyprus bailout, which
confiscated 60% of the assets of wealthy investors, and the statements
of European politicians that it could happen again, is frightening
large investors into taking their money out of European banks,
according to some reports, and some of this money is reaching Wall
Street.

It used to be that I was advising (American) readers to keep their
money in FDIC insured bank accounts, and that's probably still the
best bet, though if you live in a house with a safe basement, you may
wish to keep some cash hidden behind a loose brick. Some people
suggest "investing" your money on self-defense and survival type
items, everything from food to weapons.

The Cyprus bailout shows what happens when politicians become
desperate. Three months ago, confiscating 60% of bank accounts was so
completely unthinkable that the mere suggestion would have drawn
contemptuous laughter. But now it's a fact. What will the
politicians in the Obama administration do when they become desperate?
It's impossible to predict, but it's certainly clear that nothing is
off the table.

****
**** Libor banker fraud may be eclipsed by the ISDAfix fraud
****


I was amused by the beginning of Mike Taibbi's story in Rolling Stone:

<QUOTE>"Conspiracy theorists of the world, believers in the
hidden hands of the Rothschilds and the Masons and the Illuminati,
we skeptics owe you an apology. You were right. The players may be
a little different, but your basic premise is correct: The world
is a rigged game. We found this out in recent months, when a
series of related corruption stories spilled out of the financial
sector, suggesting the world's largest banks may be fixing the
prices of, well, just about everything."<END QUOTE>

Well, I'm certainly not a conspiracy theorist, nor have I ever blamed
the Rothschilds, Masons or Illuminati, nor have I ever said that the
world was a rigged game. What I HAVE said is that many
Generation-Xers, united in their hatred of the Boomer generation of
their parents, got masters degrees in "financial engineering" in the
1990s, and then went into the big banks and purposely created tens of
trillions of dollars in fraudulent securities. And I've said that
journalists like Taibbi paint these financial engineers as innocent
victims, and that nobody in the Obama administration, which receives
huge campaign contributions from the banksters, is willing to process
these criminals. And I've related this generational behavior to
generational hatreds in other places and times. (See "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust"
.)

So now Taibbi is changing his mind and apologizing, as he comes to
understand what I said years ago: That the same people are still in
the same jobs in the same banks, looking for new ways to defraud
people. He's just discovered a new form of fraud, many times larger
than the Libor fraud. The Libor fraud affected possibly tens of
trillions of dollars in loan agreements, as banksters manipulated the
rates so that they could make as much money as possible. But the
IDSAfix is a number computed by a similar process, but it affects
HUNDREDS of trillions of dollars in interest rate swaps. The
banksters manipulated IDSAfix rates fraudulently for their own
financial gain.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating ISDAfix rate
fraud, but don't expect the Obama administration to prosecute anyone,
no matter how massive the fraud. Campaign contributions from banks are
just too lucrative. Rolling Stone / Mike Taibbi and Bloomberg

****
**** Orthodox Jewish woman sues Lancome over makeup failure
****


Orthodox Jewish women are not permitted to apply makeup on the
Sabbath, and so they buy "24-hour" makeup and apply it the afternoon
before, so they'll look fabulous all day. Rorie Weisberg, an Orthodox
Jewish woman from Monsey, New York, is suing L'Oreal, claiming that
the company's Lancome foundation Teint Idole Ultra 24H "faded
significantly" overnight. Weisberg was testing out the makeup in
preparation for her eldest son's bar mitzvah in June. Times of Israel


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Wall Street, Cyprus,
Libor, ISDAfix, Mike Taibbi,
Orthodox Jews, Oreal Lancome

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Post#535 at 05-05-2013 09:24 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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6-May-13 World View -- Israeli air strike on Damascus escalates Syria crisis

*** 6-May-13 World View -- Israeli air strike on Damascus escalates Syria crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • World View will be suspended until Thursday or Friday
  • Orthodox Christians celebrate Holy Fire 'miracle' on Easter
  • Major defense contractor QinetiQ hacked for years by China
  • Israeli air strike on Damascus escalates Syria crisis


****
**** World View will be suspended until Thursday or Friday
****


Life is interfering with the "World View" schedule, and so it will be
suspended for a few days. I hope for World View to resume on Thursday
or Friday (May 9/10). In the meantime, I request of world leaders
that they not make any major news until then, and in particular that
they wait until the end of the week before starting any major new
wars.

****
**** Orthodox Christians celebrate Holy Fire 'miracle' on Easter
****



Worshippers hold candles lit by passing the 'holy fire' from candle to candle after midnight in Jerusalem on Sunday (Reuters)

One of the most impressive celebrations in the world is performed each
year on Orthodox Easter Sunday in Orthodox Christian churches around
the world. Worshippers enter the church with an unlit candle. At
midnight, the priest repeats the "miracle" of holy fire by producing a
fire from the altar, lighting a candle with it. Thousands of Orthodox
Christians fill Jerusalem's ancient Church of the Holy Sepulchre, ,
believed to be the site of the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, as well as
surrounding streets, for the Easter "Holy Fire" ceremony, which
symbolizes the resurrection of Jesus Christ. In Athens, worshippers
fill all the streets, and the holy fire ceremony lights up the entire
city with candlelight. The ceremony dates back to the fourth century,
and possibly as early as the first century. HolyFire.org and Russia Today

****
**** Major defense contractor QinetiQ hacked for years by China
****


From four years, Chinese hackers stole gigabytes of trade secrets and
classified military secrets from top-level defense contractor QinetiQ Group plc,
including detailed information and software source code for highly
sensitive weapons-systems technology and advanced robotic systems. An
investigation shows that QinetiQ (pronounced like "kinetic") ignored
one warning sign after another, and treated each one as an isolated
incident. In fact, thousands of computers in every part of the
organization were compromised in a systematic manner from 2007 to
2010.

A February report by American computer security company Mandiant
provides forensic proof that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA)
has been systematically conducting cyberwar against American
government and corporate organizations. In particular, the PLA's
"Unit 61398," working out of a building in Shanghai, gains control of
a company's network, retains control in stealth mode, and downloads
all the data in the network over a period of months, sometimes
terabytes of data. (See "20-Feb-13 World View -- New report reveals massive cyber war attack by China's army"
)

According to cybersecurity analyst Richard Clarke:

<QUOTE>"God forbid we get into a conflict with China but if
we did we could face a major embarrassment, where we try out all
these sophisticated weapons systems and they don;t
work."<END QUOTE>

In case of a war with China, the phrase "major embarrassment" would be
a massive understatement.

Readers may be interested in knowing that my web site, GenerationalDynamics.com has been under a
continuous low-level DDOS attack by Chinese hackers for many months,
and suffered a major hacking attack several weeks ago that required me
to restructure the entire web site. Since there's absolutely nothing
of value on my web site except what's available on publicly available
web pages, I have to assume that someone in China is just screwing
with me for the hell of it. But it does prove one thing -- if an
insignificant nobody like me is worthy of attack by Chinese hackers,
then any web site is worthy of attack by Chinese hackers.

Several people have asked me what's happened to the RSS feed, and
that's the explanation. My web site has almost 4,000 pages, of which
I've brought back over 3,500 in the restructuring, but I haven't yet
had the time to restore the RSS feed. I strongly recommend that all
readers subscribe to the daily World View e-mail subscription:

http://GenerationalDynamics.com/Subscribe

Then you'll receive each day's column in e-mail, and you won't need
the RSS feed. Bloomberg

****
**** Israeli air strike on Damascus escalates Syria crisis
****


Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad said on Sunday that
Israel's repeated airstrikes on facilities near Damascus constituted an
Israeli "declaration of war," and he claimed that the air strikes
conclusively demonstrated the alliance between "the terrorists,
infidels and Zionists" fighting the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. Israel is officially not commenting on the air strikes,
but unnamed Israeli officials say that the air strikes were
targeting a shipment of Iranian made Fatah-110 missiles on their
way from Syria to Hezbollah terrorists. However, Israel is
openly preparing for retaliation by re-deploying the Iron Dome
anti-missile system, and closing air space in the north of Israel.

There is a sense in which the Syria conflict has politically turned
against the opposition in the last few days. The main factor was the
announcement by the Jabhat al-Nusra ("Victory Battlefront") anti-Assad
group of rebels that it's linked to al-Qaeda and is supported by
al-Qaeda in Iraq. This has given credibility to the claim that his
regime been fighting terrorists, even though his regime has in fact
targeted tens of thousands of innocent civilians, including children
in their bedrooms and dormitories. It's also made the West
increasingly nervous about supporting the opposition rebels, because
any supplied weapons might fall into the hands of al-Qaeda terrorists.
In fact, it's believed that Israeli officials want al-Assad to remain
in power, since they fear that any replacement would be worse.

There's also a political message from Israel to Washington and the
West. There's a growing sense of contempt in many quarters that
Western leaders, particularly president Barack Obama, are quick to
make one "red line" ultimatum after another, but then do nothing after
the red line is crossed, except to announce a new red line. Israel's
message is that it is not in the same category as other Western
countries, and that it's willing to take action, even if doing so
risks a regional escalation in the war.

In the meantime, there have been unconfirmed reports that Iran is
supplying thousands of troops to the al-Assad regime, and they're
working with the Hezbollah militia to defeat the opposition. Times of Israel and Debka


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Orthodox Easter, Holy Fire miracle
Jerusalem, Church of the Holy Sepulchre, Athens,
QinetiQ group plc, Mandiant, China, People's Liberation Army,
Richard Clarke, Israel, Syria, Faisal Mekdad,
Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Jabhat al-Nusra, Hezbollah

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Post#536 at 05-10-2013 10:04 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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11-May-13 World View -- Taliban promises bloodbath during Pakistan elections

*** 11-May-13 World View -- Taliban promises bloodbath during Saturday's Pakistan elections

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Generational Dynamics World View is back!
  • Taliban promises bloodbath during Saturday's Pakistan elections
  • New South China Sea confrontation between China and Philippines
  • Syrian women get married for money in exchange for 'survival sex'
  • Gun-control issue dives deeper into farce over 3D printing
  • Greece's youth unemployment rate now at 64.2%
  • IRS admits Nixon-like targeting taxpayers for political purposes


****
**** Generational Dynamics World View is back!
****


After a four-day "vacation," Generational Dynamics World View is
resuming publication.

****
**** Taliban promises bloodbath during Saturday's Pakistan elections
****



Pakistan presidential candidates (L-R) Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan (BBC)

The al-Qaeda linked Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan
branch of the Taliban, has announced its intention to launch terrorist
attacks all across Pakistan on Saturday, in order to disrupt the
presidential elections. The elections are considered historic, since
they'll mark the first time in Pakistan's history that there has been
a peaceful transition from one civilian government to another.
Already, more than 100 people have been killed in terrorist violence
in the days leading up to the election. The TTP have been
particularly targeting the "secular" or Shia political parties, while
leaving alone the Islamist anti-American parties, the Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif and the Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement
for Justice) party of Imran Khan. On Thursday, a son of former prime
minister Yousaf Raza Gilani was kidnapped and two of his aides killed.

Nawaz Sharif is expected to win the election, but with millions of new
voters, anything might happened. Pakistanis are desperately looking
for a "hope and change" candidate who could solve all their problems
in a moment, and Imran Khan, the former world cricket champion and
international playboy, has been advertising himself as that candidate.
However, in a stroke of fate, Khan was hospitalized early this week
after a campaign appearance where he accidentally took a hard fall and
fractured a rib and damaged three vertebrae, forcing him to give one
final televised campaign appearance from his hospital bed. Whether
this will sink his campaign, or conversely, whether he'll get a big
sympathy vote, is something we may learn on Saturday. Daily Times (Pakistan) and BBC

****
**** New South China Sea confrontation between China and Philippines
****


Philippine authorities admitted on Friday that one of their coast
guard ships opened fire on a Taiwanese ship on Thursday, saying that
their only intention was to disable the ship, which was threatening to
ram the Philippines ship. Both ships were within overlapping 200-mile
economic exclusion zones (EEZs) of Taiwan and the Philippines.
However, one Taiwanese fisherman was killed in the incident, and both
China and Taiwan are protesting the killing. China has repeatedly
made it clear that they are going to use their vast military power to
take control of the entire South China Sea, including several regions
that have historically belonged to other countries, following a policy
similar to Hitler's "Lebensraum" policy. They've announced that they
intend to begin boarding and seizing control of other countries' ships
in the South China Sea. The Chinese are supporting the Taiwanese in
this incident, because China has also indicated that it intends to
take control of Taiwan. LA Times

****
**** Syrian women get married for money in exchange for 'survival sex'
****


There are over 500,000 refugees from Syria flooding Jordan, most of
them women and children. But aid organizations do not have enough
money to fully support these refugees, so in order to make the money
to feed their children, many of the women are opting for short-term
marriages in exchange for several hundred dollars. "The men are
usually between 50 and 80, and they ask for girls who have white skin
and blue or green eyes. They want them very young, no older than 16,"
according to one marriage broker. BBC

****
**** Gun-control issue dives deeper into farce over 3D printing
****


Gun control farce reached new heights on Friday when the U.S. State
Department ordered Cody Wilson, head of Texas nonprofit Defense
Distributed, to remove from its web site the blueprints (CAD file) for
the successful manufacture of a gun using an $8,000 3D printer.

When I wrote about gun control and 3D printing
in December, I pointed out that there's no evidence that
prohibitions in the past -- of alcohol, drugs, abortion and
prostitution -- had any actual effect, but they had a large negative
effect of creating bootleggers, organized crime, drug cartels and
prostitution rings. Gun control has already produced huge unintended
consequences in the form of would-be gun owners buying up all the guns
and ammunition they can find, for fear of losing the opportunity.

The other unintended consequence is the enormous interest in 3D
printers, which can manufacture small objects of all kinds. Thanks to
the spur given by the farcical gun-control debate, we can soon expect
to see thousands of gun manufacturers in garages and basements across
the country.

This reminds me of the 1971 book by Abbie Hoffman, Steal This
Book
. The book contains instructions on everything from getting
free abortions to using a shotgun to hiding from the law. Many
attempts were made to prevent publication of the book, but when it
finally was published, it made it on to the NY Times Best Seller list.

So with all the publicity for John Cody's CAD files for 3D printing
guns, it's not surprising that the blueprints have already been
downloaded 100,000 times. The files may have been removed from John
Cody's web site, but they appear to be freely available on the Pirate
Bay file sharing site. AFP and The Pirate Bay and Abbie Hoffman - Steal This Book

****
**** Greece's youth unemployment rate now at 64.2%
****


February jobless figures are out for Greece, and they show that the
jobless rate expanded to 27%, up from 21.9% a year earlier. Worse,
almost two in every three young people aged up to 24 years are jobless
as the unemployment rate for that age group reached 64.2 percent in
February. Kathimerini

****
**** IRS admits Nixon-like targeting taxpayers for political purposes
****


The Internal Revenue Service on Friday acknowledged that it flagged
political groups with "tea party" or "patriot" in their names for
special scrutiny when they applied for tax-exempt status, repeating
the kind of actions that were in the impeachment charges that forced
former president Richard Nixon to resign.

This comes on the same day that some members of the mainstream media
are turning against President Barack Obama over the lies and coverup
in the Benghazi matter. President Nixon was forced to resign because
of a coverup of the Watergate matter, where nobody was killed, while
four people were killed in the Benghazi matter. This is an
administration whose members believe that they can break any law or
say any falsehood and get away with it because the mainstream media
has always been totally in the tank for Obama, and would always find
some way to support him. Friday's turnaround could be politically
significant. Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP,
Pakistan, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan,
South China Sea, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Hitler, Lebensraum,
Syria, survival sex,
gun control, John Cody, Defense Distributed, 3D printing,
Abbie Hoffman, Steal This Book, Greece,
Internal Revenue Service, Benghazi
==data ww2010.weblog.y2013.e130511.loc
ww2010.weblog.log1305

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Post#537 at 05-10-2013 11:03 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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Gun control thread. Discussion of different ways to circumvent gun control.







Post#538 at 05-11-2013 01:56 PM by JDG 66 [at joined Aug 2010 #posts 2,116]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
****
**** Taliban promises bloodbath during Saturday's Pakistan elections
****
-C'mon. That's what makes them freedom fighters. Sheesh.

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post

****
**** Gun-control issue dives deeper into farce over 3D printing
****


Gun control farce reached new heights on Friday when the U.S. State
Department ordered Cody Wilson, head of Texas nonprofit Defense
Distributed, to remove from its web site the blueprints (CAD file) for
the successful manufacture of a gun using an $8,000 3D printer...

When I wrote about gun control and 3D printing
in December, I pointed out that there's no evidence that
prohibitions in the past -- of alcohol, drugs, abortion and
prostitution -- had any actual effect, but they had a large negative
effect of creating bootleggers, organized crime, drug cartels and
prostitution rings. Gun control has already produced huge unintended
consequences in the form of would-be gun owners buying up all the guns
and ammunition they can find, for fear of losing the opportunity.
So with all the publicity for John Cody's CAD files for 3D printing
guns, it's not surprising that the blueprints have already been
downloaded 100,000 times. The files may have been removed from John
Cody's web site, but they appear to be freely available on the Pirate
Bay file sharing site. AFP and The Pirate Bay and Abbie Hoffman - Steal This Book
-Ah. The next move will be to ban 3-D printers...

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post

****
**** IRS admits Nixon-like targeting taxpayers for political purposes
****
-Actually, FDR invented that, when he had (future Nuernberg prosecutor) Jackson go after Mellon. Fortunately, FDR ended up falling flat on his face.







Post#539 at 05-11-2013 11:26 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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12-May-13 World View -- Turkey blames Syrian regime for terrorist bombings in border

*** 12-May-13 World View -- Turkey blames Syrian regime for terrorist bombings in border town

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Turkey blames Syrian regime for terrorist bombings in border town
  • Nawaz Sharif appears to be the winner in Pakistan's elections


****
**** Turkey blames Syrian regime for terrorist bombings in border town
****



Aftermath of the explosions in Reyhanli (Zaman)

At least 45 people were killed and hundreds injured by two massive car
bombs that exploded on Saturday in the Turkish town of Reyhanli.
Reyhanli is on the border with Syria, and has an Arabic-speaking Sunni
Muslim population, which has been a draw for both anti-regime Syrian
refugees and also as headquarters for NGOs and aid groups operating in
Syria. According to Turkey's deputy prime minister, the assailants
were linked to Syria's intelligence service, al-Mukhabarat:

<QUOTE>"We have to a great extent completed our work toward
identifying the assailants. We have established that the
organization and assailants have links to the pro-regime
al-Mukhabarat (Syrian intelligence) organization."<END QUOTE>

There are now some 400,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey, and many of them
have been flooding into Reyhanli, resulting in friction between
citizens and refugees. One possibility is that the intended effect of
the bombings was to worsen relationships between the two groups, and
indeed many refugees are fleeing from Reyhanli, fearing attacks by
citizens who blame the refugees for bringing the bombings.

Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu vowed that Turkey would act:

<QUOTE>"Those who for whatever reason attempt to bring the
external chaos into our country will get a response."<END QUOTE>

However, these kinds of statements are similar to those we hear all
the time from politicians in Turkey, in Washington, and in Europe.
Repeatedly making one "red line" ultimatum after another, but then
doing nothing after the red line is crossed except to announce a new
red line only destroys the credibility of the West, and causes the
al-Assad regime, as well as Russia and Iran, to treat any such
statements with contempt. Zaman (Istanbul) and BBC

****
**** Nawaz Sharif appears to be the winner in Pakistan's elections
****



Nawaz Sharif waves to supporters (AFP)

Attempts by Pakistan's Taliban to use terrorist violence across the
country to disrupt Pakistan's elections on Saturday killed 15 people,
but did not prevent millions of people from voting in the first
election in Pakistan's history that would lead to a peaceful
transition from one civilian government to another, resulting in the
highest election turnout in decades.

Official results will be announced on Sunday, but former two-time
prime minister Nawaz Sharif declared victory on Saturday evening,
based on a partial vote count. This is considered a remarkable
comeback for Sharif, who was overthrown and forced into exile in a
military coup when Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999. Sharif
vowed to deliver on all the promises he made during the campaign -- to
end the electric power cuts, sometimes lasting 18 hours per day; to
turn around the devastated economy; and to end the corruption of the
current government.

The second place candidate was former world cricket champion and
international playboy Imran Khan, who was the "hope and change"
candidate. Khan beat Sharif in some regions, and won the vote among
younger voters, but lost to Sharif because he had almost no government
experience.

From America's point of view, the major question is whether Pakistan's
policies towards America's "war on terror" and drone strikes will
change. Khan was very vehement in promising to end all Pakistani
participation in America's involvement in Afghanistan. Nawaz has said
similar things, but not nearly as vehemently. AFP and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Reyhanli,
Syria, al-Mukhabarat, Ahmet Davutoglu,
Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan, Pervez Musharraf

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13-May-13 World View -- Pope Francis canonizes 800 Otranto 'martyrs' of Ottoman army

*** 13-May-13 World View -- Pope Francis canonizes 800 Otranto 'martyrs' of Ottoman army

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Pope Francis canonizes 800 Otranto 'martyrs' of Ottoman army
  • Taiwan sends warships into South China Sea near Philippines
  • Suicide rates increasing substantially among Boomers
  • Millions of Chinese internet users vow not to commit suicide


****
**** Pope Francis canonizes 800 Otranto 'martyrs' of Ottoman army
****



Otranto Castle

The new Pope Francis on Sunday canonized over 800 "Martyrs of Otranto"
as saints, the largest such action in the history of the Catholic
Church. At the same time, two Latin American nuns became saints.

The 1480 Battle of Otranto was ordered by Muslim Ottoman forces under
the command of Sultan Mehmet II, known as Mehmet the Conqueror. At
age 21, on May 29, 1453, Mehmet had led the successful capture of the
city of Constantinople (now Istanbul, Turkey), possibly the most
globally significant battle of the last millennium, as it ended the
Christian Byzantine Empire and began the Ottoman domination of the
entire region. In 1480, Mehmet acted to destroy the Roman Empire once
and for all by capturing Rome, and then all of Italy. Mehmet's armada
landed in Otranto in the "heel" of Italy's "boot" on July 29, 1480.
The citizens of Otranto, with the tales of horror of the fall of
Constantinople still fresh in their minds, realized that they were
vastly outnumbered, and surrendered. According to Catholic accounts,
the Ottomans segregated the women and children, who became slaves,
from the men. Some 800 men were ordered to convert to Islam. They
refused, and proclaimed that they would die for Christ. On August 14,
1480, the men were beaten and decapitated, one by one, in full view of
the others, and then put into a mass grave. According to Catholic
history, not only did they become martyrs, but their actions were a
miracle, because they also saved Rome from capture by the Ottomans,
since they forced a delay that gave the Italian troops in Rome time to
prepare. Mehmet the Conqueror died on May 3, 1481, and is thought to
have been poisoned.

Not surprisingly, parts of the Catholic accounts are disputed by
Muslim scholars, who describe the actions of Mehmet much more
charitably, both in Otranto and in Constantinople. Of significance
today is that Muslims view this mass canonization as a new anti-Islam
attack by the Catholics. And that may indeed have been the intention
of Francis' predecessor, Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, who formally
approved the canonization of the 800 -- and did so on the very last
day of his papacy, leaving the job to be completed by Pope
Francis. Catholic.com and Guardian (London)

****
**** Taiwan sends warships into South China Sea near Philippines
****


Taiwan on Sunday dispatched four warships to patrol waters in the
South China Sea near the Philippines, in response to public outrage
over the Thursday's shooting
of a
Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippines coast guard, who claim that the
Taiwanese boat was threatening to ram them. Taiwan has issued an
ultimatum that unless the Philippines apologizes and provides
compensation for the victim's family, then Taiwan will refuse any
further work applications from Filipinos to work in Taiwan -- a
serious threat because of the Philippines' unemployment problem.

The dispute has increased nationalist tensions on both sides, and has
turned into a cyberwar. On Friday, hackers in each country began
attacking government sites in the other country. The cyberattacks are
increasing what are already fairly high tensions. AFP and GMA Network (Philippines)

****
**** Suicide rates increasing substantially among Boomers
****


Since 1999, there have been substantial increases in the suicide rates
of United States adults aged 35-64. The three most common suicide
mechanisms were firearms (i.e., penetrating injury or gunshot wound
from a weapon using a powder charge to fire a projectile), poisoning
(predominantly drug overdose), and suffocation (predominantly
hanging). The suicide rate for men aged 35-64 years increased 27.3%,
and the rate for women increased 31.5%. Among whites, the rate for
women increased 41.9%, and the rate for men increased 39.6%. Firearms
and suffocation were the most common mechanisms for men, whereas
poisoning and firearms were the most common mechanisms for women.
Possible contributing factors for the rise in suicide rates include
the recent economic downturn (historically, suicide rates tend to
correlate with business cycles, with higher rates observed during
times of economic hardship); a cohort effect, based on evidence that
the Boomer generation had unusually high suicide rates during their
adolescent years; and a rise in intentional overdoses associated with
the increase in availability of prescription opioids. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

****
**** Millions of Chinese internet users vow not to commit suicide
****


In the last few days, millions of Chinese internet users have posted
online pledges not to commit suicide:

<QUOTE>"I will never commit suicide. If I die unexpectedly,
I was killed by others and the police should investigate the
crime."<END QUOTE>

The pledges are actually an anti-government protest, following the
suspicious death of Yuan Liya, a young clothing store worker in
Beijing. The rumors are that she was gang-raped by security guards
and thrown off a high balcony, but police ruled the death a suicide.
Angry protesters demanded an investigation, but they were quickly
silenced by hordes of police. Deaths by "forced suicide" are thought
to be quite common in China, as police use the technique to silence
activists. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pope Francis, Otranto, Sultan Mehmet II,
Constantinople, Istanbul, Pope Benedict XVI,
South China Sea, Taiwan, Philippines, suicide rates,
China, Yuan Liya

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Post#541 at 05-13-2013 11:14 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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14-May-13 World View -- Greece prepares to demand war reparations from Germany

*** 14-May-13 World View -- Greece's government prepares to demand war reparations from Germany

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Pakistan celebrates election, but faces continued chaos
  • Euro finance ministers hold Greece's feet to the fire
  • Greece's government prepares to demand war reparations from Germany


****
**** Pakistan celebrates election, but faces continued chaos
****



Nawaz Sharif supporters rejoice in election victory (AP)

Voters ignored terrorist threats in Pakistan on Saturday, and turned
out in historically large numbers for a historically important
election: The first election in Pakistan's history leading to a
peaceful transition from one civilian government to another. Hopes
are high that the winner, Nawaz Sharif, will keep his campaign
promises to eliminate corruption from the government, will restore the
economy, and will end terrorist attacks by the al-Qaeda linked
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan branch of the Taliban.

However, an Indian analyst says that the optimism is misplaced, and
points to the following:

  • There were thousands of civilians killed in TTP terrorist
    attacks in 2012, and almost a thousand so far in 2013.
  • Pakistan's army continues a dual policy of condemning some
    terrorist groups while implicitly supporting and protecting leaders of
    other terrorist groups.
  • Pakistan remains a big draw for foreign jihadists, especially in
    the tribal border areas. Estimates indicate that there could be
    around 3,000 foreign fighters, drawn from some 30 countries.
  • Conflicts between Pakistan's three branches of government -- the
    judiciary, the executive, and the army -- are reaching alarming
    proportions. The judiciary has ordered some politicians to be jailed
    for corruption or contempt of court, and the orders haven't been
    obeyed. And the return from exile of former prime minister and former
    general Pervez Musharraf to Pakistan has pitted the judiciary, which
    wants to prosecute Musharraf, against the army, which wants to protect
    Musharraf.
  • Afghanistan has tried to establish peaceful relations with
    Pakistan but, according to one Afghan commentator, "They fire rockets,
    they send terrorists to our soil, they destroy our jihadi leaders,
    clerics, influencers, our mihrabs (religious places), our tribe, our
    mothers, sisters, brothers, students, children, soldiers and
    police."


The last point is particularly relevant to the generational analysis
of President Barach Obama's military "surge" into Afghanistan in 2009,
with the intent of duplicating the success of President Bush's "surge"
strategy into Iraq in 2007. However, as I've written several times in
the past, the generational situation in Afghanistan is very different
than in Iraq, and there are significant differences that will prevent
the surge strategy from working there. (See "2-Sep-12 World View -- U.S. decision on Haqqani Network will affect Pakistan relations"
)

The Taliban are Sunni Pashtun militants. Even if they are inclined to
live peacefully in Afghanistan after the Americans leave, the Sunni
Pashtun Taliban (the TTP) just across the border in Pakistan will not
let them. That's why the last point above is an important part of the
chaos in Pakistan.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the biggest and most
important difference between Iraq and Afghanistan is that Iraq's last
generational crisis war was an external war (the Iran/Iraq war,
1980-88), while Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was a
bloody, genocidal civil war (1991-96). That's why the "surge" could
work in Iraq, but not in Afghanistan: No negotiations will heal the
animosity between the Pashtuns and the Hazaras, who tortured,
mutilated, raped and killed each other less than 20 years ago.

Finally, as I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts
that Pakistan and India are headed for a major war re-fighting the
bloody 1947 war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition,
the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India.
BBC and
South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)

****
**** Euro finance ministers hold Greece's feet to the fire
****


The Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers approved on Monday the
conditional release of Greece's next two bailout installments,
totaling 7.5 billion euros. Greece will receive 4.2 billion euros
later this week, pending final approval. But the next payment of 3.3
billion dollar installment, scheduled for the end of June, will not be
paid unless Greece's government first fires 2,000 civil servants, as
part of a previous commitment to reform the civil service. What's
going on here is that the Europeans are no longer willing just to an
entire loan payment, 7.5 billion euros in this case. Instead, the
Europeans are splitting up the loan tranches into "sub-tranches," and
requiring fulfillment of specific commitments, such as civil service
firings, for each one. This is not making the public happy, and so
Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras is attempting to quell public
answer by promising that Greece's economy will improve so much by
early 2014, that they can return to the public bond market again, and
start borrowing money again and spending it as much as ever. This is
the same kind of promise that the Europeans have been making every
quarter for the last four years. I don't know how many Greeks believe
in the tooth fairy, but that kind of credulity would be required to
believe Samaras. Kathimerini and Reuters

****
**** Greece's government prepares to demand war reparations from Germany
****


Greece's government has compiled an 80-page report making the case to
demand World War II reparations from Germany. Stories of Nazi
atrocities and war crimes are now being widely reported and discussed,
in particular the mass slaughter of 498 men on December 13, 1943, in
one of the worst crimes of the war. In addition, the report demands
repayment of a loan that the Nazis forced to make to the Greeks during
the war, but never repaid. The total demand may be as high as 162
billion euros, which would allow Greece to pay off its debts. This
would be a total disaster for Greece, because it would gorge itself on
money and be in worse debt than ever before long.

However, the Germans point out that the Greeks defrauded the European
Central Bank and the European Union when it joined the euro in 2001,
reporting fraudulent deficit figures. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif,
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Pervez Musharraf,
Afghanistan, Sunni, Pashtun, India,
Greece, Eurogroup, Germany, war reparations

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Post#542 at 05-14-2013 10:29 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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15-May-13 World View -- American-Russian relations upset by CIA spy scandal

*** 15-May-13 World View -- American-Russian relations upset by CIA spy scandal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • American-Russian relations upset by CIA spy scandal
  • CIA spy scandal may be Russia's revenge
  • Russia rebuffs West on S-300 missile shipments to Syria


****
**** American-Russian relations upset by CIA spy scandal
****



Ryan Fogle, alleged CIA spy in Russia, wearing a blonde wig (AP)

Russia has declared US diplomat Ryan Fogle "persona non grata" and
ordered to be deported, after he was arrested for allegedly spying for
the U.S. This could be a movie. He was arrested wearing a blue
checked shirt, a baseball cap, and an ill-fitting blonde wig, and
carried a letter offering $1 million for unidentified secret
information to a Russian recruit, a counter-terrorism officer who
specializes in the Caucasus. Usually, spy scandals are kept
relatively quiet by all the nations involved, but in this case the
Russians are making a very big deal of it, releasing photos and
interviews to the Russian press. BBC

****
**** CIA spy scandal may be Russia's revenge
****


The fact that the Russians made the CIA spy scandal such a high
profile event is probably a way for Russia's president Vladimir
Putin to send a message.

It's well-known that Putin is still furious over what happened
in Libya. Putin went along with a United Nations Security Council
resolution for a no-fly zone over Libya, and then it turned into
a major military operation to bring down Russia's ally,
Muammar Gaddafi. Putin has vowed never to let anything like that
happen again, particularly not in Syria.

Putin is also said to be angry that Russia is being blamed for the
Boston Marathon terrorist attacks, since the perpetrators were from
the Caucasus. In Syria, Putin has expressed opposition to any Western
moves to send weapons or even humanitarian aid to Syrian forces
opposing president Bashar al-Assad.

In the meantime, we've been having these silly dog and pony shows put
on by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry running around saying that
we're going to reach agreement with the Russians, to bring a political
solution to the Syria crisis. So, one possibility is that Putin made
this CIA spy scandal such a high profile event in order to get some
revenge against the Americans, and also to illuminate the weakness
of the West in Syria negotiations.

For Russia, the bottom line regarding the Syria crisis is that a ruler
has the right to use military force to secure stability in his domain
and the responsibility to crush a revolution of any color at whatever
cost -- the same policy that's followed in both Russia and China.
Jamestown

****
**** Russia rebuffs West on S-300 missile shipments to Syria
****


Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to Sochi, Russia, on
Tuesday to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to warn him
against sending arms to Syria, especially S-300 surface-to-air
missiles that are capable of shooting down Israeli planes. Instead,
in a statement regarded as a warning to the West to stay out of Syria,
Putin said, "In this crucial period, it is especially important to
avoid any moves that can shake the situation." It's thought that he
was specifically warning against a repeat of last week's Israeli warplane bombing of weapons sites in Damascus,
the capital of Syria. However, according to one
analyst, that message was rejected by Netanyahu, who let Putin know
that Israel would destroy the S-300s when they arrived. AFP and Debka

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, CIA, Ryan Fogle,
Vladimir Putin, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Syria,
John Kerry, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu

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16-May-13 World View -- Palestinians commemorate 'Al Nakba' -- 'The Catastrophe'

*** 16-May-13 World View -- Palestinians commemorate 'Al Nakba' -- 'The Catastrophe'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • U.N. General Assembly condemns Syrian regime for violence
  • Palestinians commemorate 'Al Nakba' -- 'The Catastrophe'
  • Tensions escalate between Taiwan and the Philippines
  • Eurozone recession deepens even further than forecast


****
**** U.N. General Assembly condemns Syrian regime for violence
****



France's ambassador Gerard Araud speaks to U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday (AFP)

Ignoring bitter opposition from Russia and Syria, the United Nations
General Assembly approved a non-binding resolution condemning the
regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for using heavy military
weapons on civilians, and for systematic violations of human rights.

Syria's permanent Envoy to the UN Bashar al-Jaafari addressed the
General Assembly with a bitter attack on the Arab League, which
sponsored the current resolution and which, in the past, has expelled
the Syrian government representative from the Arab League and replace
it with a representative of the opposition:

<QUOTE>"Giving Syria's seat to the al-Doha [Qatar] coalition
in the Arab League and the attempt to get the UN involved by
giving a [delusional] representation to its aim at breaking off
the road in front of the solution to the crisis and tearing down
the Syrian state.

We bring your attention to the destructive role of the Arab
League, led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia in addition to Turkey
against Syria as the Arab League has given legitimacy to provide
the terrorists with weapons."<END QUOTE>

The Saudi envoy responded by repeating many of the horrors that
the al-Assad inflicted on innocent civilians -- from bloody massacres
of peaceful protesters to mass slaughter of innocent students in
their college dormitories while they were asleep.

The General Assembly approved the measure by a vote of 107 to 12, with
45 member states abstaining. The "yes" vote was a lot lower than the
vote last August on a similar resolution, where 133 states voted
"yes". According to some analysts, the reason that fewer states
supported the resolution this time is because many of them are
beginning to believe that with help from Russia and Iran, al-Assad is
going to win the war, war crimes and all.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that expectation is
not realistic. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, like America
in the 1960s, and the young Sunni fighters are not going to capitulate
to the Shia Alawite regime. VOA and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Palestinians commemorate 'Al Nakba' -- 'The Catastrophe'
****


On Wednesday, Palestinians all over the world commemorated the 65th
anniversary of the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 -- a
day that they refer to as Youm al-Nakba or "Day of Catastrophe." The
speeches and protests and demonstrations demanded a "right of return"
to lands acquired by Israel in 1948 and 1967, and full recognition of
Palestine as a nation. In the West Bank, demonstrators clashed with
Israeli police, resulting in 75 injuries and 25 Palestinian arrests.
Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Tensions escalate between Taiwan and the Philippines
****


Taiwan has rejected as "insincere" an apology from the president of
the Philippines for the Thursday's accidental shooting
of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippines
coast guard in a disputed region of the South China Sea. In response
to increased anti-Philippine nationalism in the Taiwanese public,
Taiwan has issued a travel warning telling citizens not to visit the
Philippines, has frozen Philippine applications for work permits in
Taiwan, and is carrying out military exercises in the disputed region
of the South China Sea. BBC

****
**** Eurozone recession deepens even further than forecast
****


The eurozone economy shrank more than economists forecast in the first
quarter of 2013. There have now been six consecutive quarters of
recession, a record. The recession is now affecting even the
so-called "core nations." The German economy, Europe's largest, did
expand, but less than forecast. France's economy went into a
recession, adding to the political troubles of the Socialist president
Francois Hollande. Euro zone unemployment has reached a record 12.1%
as governments increase taxes and cut spending to contain public
deficits. Bloomberg


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Nations, General Assembly,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Bashar al-Jaafari,
Palestine, al-Nakba, the Catastrophe, Israel,
right of return, China, Philippines, South China Sea,
eurozone, Germany, France, Francois Hollande

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Post#544 at 05-16-2013 11:01 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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17-May-13 World View -- Obama and Turkey PM Erdogan hold bizarre press conference

*** 17-May-13 World View -- Obama and Turkey PM Erdogan hold bizarre press conference

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Obama and Turkey PM Erdogan hold bizarre press conference
  • Nigeria's president launches major war against Boko Haram terrorists


****
**** Obama and Turkey PM Erdogan hold bizarre press conference
****



Prime Minister Erdogan and President Obama on Thursday (Reuters)

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Barack
Obama held a joint news conference in Washington on Thursday, and said
the predictable things about Syria -- that Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad must go, that Syria must be free, that we'll continue to
pressure the al-Assad regime, blah, blah, blah. Erdogan has
previously said that when he met with Obama he would provide proof
that the al-Assad regime had used chemical weapons, and Obama has
previously said that use of chemical weapons was a "red line" and a
"game changer" that would trigger Western military intervention in
Syria. However, Obama said the predictable things, that we're not
really, really, really sure that chemical weapons were used, and that
no military action was planned, blah, blah, blah.

The situation in Syria has been a major diplomatic victory for
Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Putin is supporting al-Assad's
ruthless massacre of innocent women and children, and is
expressing open contempt for Western pleas not to supply S-300
surface to air missiles to Syria, to allow al-Assad to defend
against Western air strikes against his stores of weapons that he
uses in his bloody attacks on innocent civilians.

There's a big irony to the Syria situation, in that it's a kind of
un-Iraq. President George Bush was blamed for military action in Iraq
in 2003, and President Barack Obama decided that the "lesson learned"
is that the U.S. should not get involved in foreign wars. More and
more each day, it appears that if things continue to get worse and
worse in Syria each day, then the West in general and the Obama
administration in particular are going to be blamed. It's very hard
to argue that Syria would be worse off today if the West had
intervened right at the beginning, and each day that passes makes
al-Assad stronger and more well-armed, thanks to Russia and Iran. So,
Bush is blamed for intervening in Iraq, and Obama may well be blamed
for NOT intervening in Syria. Such are the problems of the United
States, the policeman of the world.

Having said that, it's worthwhile noting that things could change at
any time. We've reported in the past about unconfirmed reports that
the U.S., Turkey, Jordan and Israel are making preparations for
military intervention in Syria. The horrific actions by violent
psychopath Bashar al-Assad are causing pressure to increase on the
West to do something - anything - to stop the carnage, a decision
could be announced at any time. Zaman (Istanbul) and Jamestown

****
**** Nigeria's president launches major war against Boko Haram terrorists
****



Nigeria, showing major historic tribes. Northern tribes (Fulani, Hausa) are generally Muslim, southern tribes (Yoruba, Igbo, Berom) are generally Christian.

Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan has declared a state of
emergency in the northeast regions of Nigeria, and has ordered
full-scale deployment of the army and air force to fight Boko Haram
terrorists in the region. Prior to 2009, Boko Haram was a little
known Muslim sect of ethnic Hausa people, but since that time, they've
established a linking with al-Qaeda. Starting in 2010, Boko Haram
began a series of terrorist attacks across the, often bombing
Christian churches. In the last year, Boko Haram has announced the
intention to establish an Islamist state in Nigeria's northease.
There have been a number of major clashes between the army and Boko
Haram, especially around Maiduguri in the Hausa region, where the Boko
Haram fighters are indistinguishable from ordinary civilians. The
result of these clashes is that hundreds of civilians were killed and
their homes burned down and destroyed, with no clear idea whether it
was the army or Boko Haram that did the most damage and killed the
most innocent civilians. Thus, the new military action is highly
controversial in Nigeria, with many fearing that it will mean that the
army's heavy weapons and the air force's bombs will kill a lot of
civilians, but won't do much to end the Boko Haram threat.

The rise of Boko Haram from a terrorist group to a well-armed militia
is another unintended consequence of the West's military intervention
in Libya in 2011. The Libyan action provided a training ground for
Islamist jihadists, and also provided vast stores of heavy weapons
stolen from Muammar Gaddafi's unguarded storehouses. The result has
been a major al-Qaeda linked militia in northern Mali, and terrorist
attacks across northern Africa, from Algeria to Egypt. Tribune (Nigeria) and PM News (Nigeria) and BBC

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
S-300 surface to air missiles, George Bush, Iraq,
Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, Boko Haram,
Hausa, Maiduguri, Mali, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi

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Post#545 at 05-16-2013 11:37 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Small quibble, but I am actually pretty sure that Boko Haram is actually primarily Kanuri, not Hausa, as is Nigeria's northeast more generally. The Hausa are more dominant in the Northwest.







Post#546 at 05-17-2013 07:28 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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05-17-2013, 07:28 AM #546
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Small quibble, but I am actually pretty sure that Boko Haram is actually primarily Kanuri, not Hausa, as is Nigeria's northeast more generally. The Hausa are more dominant in the Northwest.
I'll check the Kanuri people out. Thanks for the correction.

John







Post#547 at 05-17-2013 10:41 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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18-May-13 World View -- Russian warships enter Mediterranean for first time in decade

*** 18-May-13 World View -- Russian warships enter Mediterranean for first time in decades

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Russia says, 'Of course we supply weapons to Syria!'
  • Russian warships enter Mediterranean for first time in decades
  • Idaho man charged with links to Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)


****
**** Russia says, 'Of course we supply weapons to Syria!'
****



Russia's Admiral Panteleyev destroyer enters the Mediterranean (Ria Novosti)

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov complained about the Western
press sensationalizing the shipment of heavy weapons by Russia to the
region of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, which has been massively
slaughtering tens of thousands of innocent civilians, including women
and children. According to Lavrov:

<QUOTE>"I don't understand why mass media are trying to make
a sensation out of the fact. We do not conceal it that we supply
weapons to Syria according to signed contracts, violating neither
any international agreements, nor our own weapon export control
legislation, one of the strictest in the world."<END QUOTE>

Lavrov said that all weapons being delivered to Syria were purely
defensive, but in fact they include S-300 long-range surface to air
missiles capable of shooting down incoming missiles or warplanes.

Russia is becoming increasingly contemptuous of the West's weakness in
its policy in Syria. The West issues one "red line" after another,
but then backs down when the red line is crossed. Meanwhile, the
Russians are becoming increasingly powerful in the Mideast, with
alliances with Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran. Russia Today

****
**** Russian warships enter Mediterranean for first time in decades
****


Lavrov's admission comes on the same day that a task force of Russian
warships entered the Mediterranean for the first time in decades. The
Mediterranean task force should be comprised of 10 warships and
support vessels as part of several tactical groups tasked with attack,
antisubmarine warfare and minesweeping. The Soviet Union maintained
its 5th Mediterranean Squadron from 1967 until 1992. It was formed to
counter the US Navy's 6th Fleet during the Cold War, and consisted of
30-50 warships and auxiliary vessels. Ria Novosti

****
**** Idaho man charged with links to Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
****


In the past ten years, I've referenced the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU) a number of times as a terrorist group centered in
the restive Fergana Valley region of central Asia, with dreams of
becoming a world-famous jihadi group like al-Qaeda, but never quite
getting there. So now it turns out that federal authorities in Idaho
have arrested Fazliddin Kurbanov, a 30 year old Uzbek man, and charged
him with "conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign
terrorist organization [the IMU]," "conspiracy to provide material
support to terrorists," and "possession of an unregistered explosive
device." Authorities did not specify whether Kurbanov allegedly
conspired to carry out attacks on US soil, nor did they name his
co-conspirators. Eurasia Net

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Admiral Panteleyev, Sergei Lavrov,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah, Iran,
Fazliddin Kurbanov, Uzbekistan, Fergana Valley,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU

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Post#548 at 05-18-2013 10:00 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Wouldn't a weapon "capable of shooting down incoming missiles and warplanes" BE purely defensive? It's not like the S-300 is capable of bombing people directly.







Post#549 at 05-18-2013 10:24 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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05-18-2013, 10:24 AM #549
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Wouldn't a weapon "capable of shooting down incoming missiles and warplanes" BE purely defensive? It's not like the S-300 is capable of bombing people directly.
I would even say that "for shooting down incoming [attacks in the form of] missiles and warplanes" is a fairly good definition of the concept of 'defensive'.

W/e, though. Don't let pesky things like the facts you yourself are incidentally relaying stand in the way of a chosen narrative. That's the Boomer way.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc Ítre dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant ŗ moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce Ítre dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#550 at 05-18-2013 10:42 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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19-May-13 World View -- North Korea launches three short-range missiles

*** 19-May-13 World View -- North Korea launches three short-range missiles

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • The former girlfriend of France's president Francois Hollande returns
  • The IRS follows the banksters in the culture of fraud and extortion
  • Banks return to synthetic securities backed by junk
  • North Korea launches three short-range missiles


****
**** The former girlfriend of France's president Francois Hollande returns
****



Segolene Royal (AFP)

France's Socialist president Francois Hollande certainly has plenty of
problems on his hands -- recession, soaring unemployment, plunging
popularity, and the need to persuade the French that "there's a pilot
in the plane." But now he has a new problem -- or rather an old
problem that's new again. Segolene Royal, his former girlfriend of 30
years and mother of four children by him, is returning to politics,
and is releasing her new book, "This Beautiful Idea of Courage."
Hollande's current girlfriend, Valerie Trierweiler, stole Hollande
away from Royal several years ago, and the relationship between Royal
and Trierweiler has been bitter and public. Guardian (London)

****
**** The IRS follows the banksters in the culture of fraud and extortion
****


For years I've been writing about the culture of fraud and extortion
that began with the rise of Generation-X, and has metastasized
throughout Washington and Wall Street. Now we have the Internal
Revenue Service (IRS) admitting that it specifically targeted
political opponents of the Obama administration, though laughably
claiming that there were no political motives.

I've seen this all before -- the fatuous denials and claims of
ignorance, the arrogance, the lies, the coverups, the daily bombshells
of the 1970s Nixon administration -- now playing out again in the
2010s Obama administration. There's even Obamacare which, as I've
written about many times, is an even more destructive economic policy
than Nixon's wage-price controls, which were disastrous. (See "Obama's health plan, a proposal of economic insanity"
from 2009.) As Mark Twain said, history
doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

I've written about the culture of fraud and extortion dozens
of times, and we've seen many illustrations:

  • The Gen-X financial engineers got their masters degrees in the
    1990s, then went into financial institutions in the 2000s, creating
    tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent subprime mortgage backed
    synthetic securities that brought about the global financial crisis --
    which is far from over. They sold the fraudulent securities to
    millions of investors and lied to their Boomer bosses, who didn't ask
    any questions because they were making so much money. (See "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud"
    from 2010.)
  • The e-mail messages that came out of the Libor-rigging
    investigations show incredible arrogance on the part of banksters, who
    routinely manipulated markets to affect the interest rates on things
    like mortgages for their own personal gain, and apparently recognized
    no ethical or moral boundaries to anything. (See "9-Feb-13 World View -- Comments and questions on the Libor-rigging scandal"
    )
  • In recent months, similar rate-fixing frauds have been discovered
    involving ISDAfix involving ISDAfix
    , and even in setting the price of oil on the world
    markets.
  • I've personally seen fraud and even criminal activities in
    the computer industry, by people who also have no ethical or
    moral standards.


So now it turns out that the people in the IRS also have no ethical or
moral standards. That was pretty obvious watching Friday's
congressional testimony by acting IRS commissioner Steve Miller, who
appeared to be totally lacking in ethics and morals, and was extremely
high on the sleaziness scale. And to make matters worse, the IRS
people, with no ethical or moral standards, will be assigned to
administer Obamacare, a policy of economic insanity.

As I've suggested in the past, the mainstream press has not done
President Obama any favors by being so completely credulous and so
completely in the tank for Obama. Obama learned that he could commit
any crime with no fear of retribution, since the NY Times and NBC News
and the Associated Press would always back him completely. But now
the Associated Press reporters, whose phone records were secretly
obtained and scrutinized by the administration, are learning that when
people are too credulous, then sooner or later they get screwed,
especially in this culture of fraud and extortion. Washington Post

****
**** Banks return to synthetic securities backed by junk
****


Banks made huge amounts of money in the 2004-2007 time frame by
repackaging faulty subprime mortgage debt as fraudulent synthetic
securities, and selling them to credulous investors as AAA rated,
risk-free investments. Now, Citibank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan
Stanley are returning to those kinds of deals, starting with sales of
sythethic bonds backed by subprime auto loans made to borrowers with
low credit scores. Banksters have sold nearly $30 billion of these in
2013, triple the sales in the same period last year. As I keep
pointing out, the same people who caused the global financial crisis
are still in the same jobs, looking for new ways to defraud people.
Fortune/CNN

****
**** North Korea launches three short-range missiles
****


North Korea on Saturday launched three short range guided missiles
into the sea off the Korean Peninsula's east coast. The missiles did
not threaten any South Korean, Japanese, or American assets. The
launch of short-range missiles is considered far less dangerous than
the launch of long-range missiles, as was threatened last month by
North Korea. Yonhap (Seoul)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Segolene Royal,
Francois Hollande, Valerie Trierweiler,
Internal Revenue Service, IRS, Richard Nixon,
Obamacare, wage-price controls, Generation-X,
Libor, Steve Miller, ISDAfix, Citibank,
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, North Korea

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