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Thread: Generational Dynamics World View - Page 23







Post#551 at 05-19-2013 07:56 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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05-19-2013, 07:56 PM #551
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
(snip for length)
****
**** Banks return to synthetic securities backed by junk
****


Banks made huge amounts of money in the 2004-2007 time frame by
repackaging faulty subprime mortgage debt as fraudulent synthetic
securities, and selling them to credulous investors as AAA rated,
risk-free investments. Now, Citibank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan
Stanley are returning to those kinds of deals, starting with sales of
sythethic bonds backed by subprime auto loans made to borrowers with
low credit scores. Banksters have sold nearly $30 billion of these in
2013, triple the sales in the same period last year. As I keep
pointing out, the same people who caused the global financial crisis
are still in the same jobs, looking for new ways to defraud people.
Fortune/CNNl]
From me:

Bring me my lamp-post, mother, I'm so angry, mother
Bring me my rope, I'm bankster-hunting tonight
Bring me my tar and feathers
We'll never mind the weather
Greed is forever, but the proles are enraged...
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#552 at 05-19-2013 08:04 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post

(more snips for length)

****
**** The IRS follows the banksters in the culture of fraud and extortion
****


For years I've been writing about the culture of fraud and extortion
that began with the rise of Generation-X, and has metastasized
throughout Washington and Wall Street. Now we have the Internal
Revenue Service (IRS) admitting that it specifically targeted
political opponents of the Obama administration, though laughably
claiming that there were no political motives.

I've seen this all before -- the fatuous denials and claims of
ignorance, the arrogance, the lies, the coverups, the daily bombshells
of the 1970s Nixon administration -- now playing out again in the
2010s Obama administration.
****
So now it turns out that the people in the IRS also have no ethical or
moral standards. That was pretty obvious watching Friday's
congressional testimony by acting IRS commissioner Steve Miller, who
appeared to be totally lacking in ethics and morals, and was extremely
high on the sleaziness scale. And to make matters worse, the IRS
people, with no ethical or moral standards, will be assigned to
administer Obamacare, a policy of economic insanity.

As I've suggested in the past, the mainstream press has not done
President Obama any favors by being so completely credulous and so
completely in the tank for Obama. Obama learned that he could commit
any crime with no fear of retribution, since the NY Times and NBC News
and the Associated Press would always back him completely. But now
the Associated Press reporters, whose phone records were secretly
obtained and scrutinized by the administration, are learning that when
people are too credulous, then sooner or later they get screwed,
especially in this culture of fraud and extortion. Washington Post
(more snips for length)
Yes. It's like having a nightmare or an idea for a horror story in which one of the villains has had the "brilliant young great hope of the Millies" possessed by the spirit of the politician considered the most dishonest and vindictive president of the modern era. I'm surprised some Stephen King hasn't already written it up.

As a blogger I take wrote recently, in another context, "That empty feeling in the pit of your stomach is called a crisis of faith."

Yet - that the candidate of the opposition should end up ratifying what the incumbents of That Other Party did while in office, is something I've seen before, and of course, cheered when it happened to The Other Side. Isn't there a saying about sauce for the gander?

Well, another daydream bites the dust. Though I'm sure for his opponents,it's "another nightmare bites the dust."
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#553 at 05-19-2013 08:30 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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20-May-13 World View -- Israel's army to begin using live fire on Palestinians

*** 20-May-13 World View -- Israel's army to begin using live fire on West Bank Palestinians

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Interest in Hizb ut-Tahrir grows after Marathon bomber visited Dagestan
  • Israel's army to begin using live fire on West Bank Palestinian protesters
  • Qatar competes with Russia and Iran for influence in the Mideast


****
**** Interest in Hizb ut-Tahrir grows after Marathon bomber visited Dagestan
****



Tamerlan Tsarnaev, left (dead), and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, right (captured) - the Boston Marathon bombers (AP)

Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami (Hut - the Party of Islamic Liberation) is a
pan-Islamic political party, founded in Jerusalem in 1953, which
promotes the Islamic way of life in countries around the world, and
speaks out against U.S. policies across the Muslim world. However,
unlike al-Qaeda and some other international pro-Islamic groups, HuT
publicly renounces violence, and has not been associated with
terrorist acts. It views itself as an educational and cultural party
that encourages mass conversions to Islam by showing that Islam
reflects their real concerns, and by exposing the plans and
conspiracies of others. The oppose "Islamists" like the Muslim
Brotherhood who "[come] in to power with no Islam but to promote the
idea of secular/civil state in line with America's wishes." Instead,
their main purpose is to unite all the Islamic nations into a single
Islamic state or caliphate by creating a Community of Hizb ut-Tahrir,
whose members will work together like the companions of the Prophet
Muhammad.

HuT has been designated as a terrorist organization by Russia and some
central Asian countries, but not by the United States nor by most
European countries. In addition, the last major HuT World Congress
was held in the United States.

Interest in HuT has grown since it was learned that the Boston
Marathon bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev met with his third cousin, Magomed
Kartashov, the leader of an HuT offshoot, the Union of the Just, in
Kizlyar, Dagestan, during his six-month visit to Russia. According to
a Time magazine report:

<QUOTE>"On May 5, three agents from Russia's Federal Security
Service (FSB) ... interrogated Kartashov for the first time about
the Boston bombings.... The FSB agents were interested in whether
Kartashov and Tsarnaev had ever discussed Islamic radicalism. ...

Kartashov told them that they had, but claimed that Tsarnaev was
the one trying to "pull him in to extremism." According to his
lawyer..., "Kartashov tried to talk [Tsarnaev] out of his interest
in extremism."

[The story] matches the accounts of five other men in Dagestan who
know Kartashov and spent time with Tsarnaev. All of them dismiss
the notion that Tsarnaev was radicalized in Dagestan. Instead, the
picture that emerges from their accounts is of a young man who
already carried a deep interest in Islamic radicalism when he went
to Russia from his home in Massachusetts. But that curiosity
evolved during his visit. The members of Kartashov's circle say
they tried to disabuse Tsarnaev of his sympathies for local
militants. By the end of his time in Dagestan, Tsarnaev's
interests seem to have shifted from the local insurgency to a more
global notion of Islamic struggle -- closer to the one espoused by
Kartashov's organization."<END QUOTE>

The issue of when Tsarnaev "became radicalized" has become a
much-discussed question. I discussed this question at length in "20-Apr-13 World View -- Generational analysis of Boston Marathon bombings"
, where I wrote that he
most likely developed radical attitudes towards the U.S. while he was
growing up Kyrgyzstan, near the Fergana Valley. Later, as an adult
living in Boston, he found a way to translate those attitudes into
action. Jamestown and Vesti (Kyrgyzstan - translated) and Time and Hizb ut-Tahrir web site

****
**** Israel's army to begin using live fire on West Bank Palestinian protesters
****


The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are changing policies and are
increasingly willing to use live fire "if necessary" on
West Bank Palestinian protesters that threaten Jewish settlements.
According to the IDF, there has been an escalation in Arab
attacks on Israeli civilians:

<QUOTE>"Their brazenness has crossed the line -- they are
doing what they didn't do for years, like reaching the fence of an
Israeli community and throwing rocks into the community, causing
injuries. ...

There is a change in the decisiveness, in the determination to end
this phenomenon... I hope the other side realizes that the 'silk
glove treatment' is over."<END QUOTE>

In 2003 I wrote that there would be a huge new Mideast war between
Jews and Arabs, refighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
(See "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" from 2003.) There have been three wars since then --
the war between Israelis and Hizbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's
soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in
Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead,
the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; and Israel's
military action in Gaza in November 2012. The increased use of
rock-throwing by Palestinian protesters in the West Bank, triggering
the use of live fire by the IDF, are part of the continuing spiral
into full-scale war. Israel National News

****
**** Qatar competes with Russia and Iran for influence in the Mideast
****


On one side in Syria, the United States, the European Union, Turkey,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are backing the opposition -- though
there are different factions with ideologies ranging from Syrian
nationalist to Islamic jihadist. On the other side, Russia is
supporting the Bashar al-Assad regime in order to retain its influence
in the Mideast, while Iran and Hezbollah are support the al-Assad
regime as part of the overall conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
Qatar and Russia, in particularly, are supplying arms to opposing
sides, fueling the sectarian proxy war. The last great Sunni-Shia
battle in the Middle East involved near-constant war between the Sunni
Ottoman Empire and Iran's Shia Safavid Empire during the 16th and 17th
centuries, which the Ottomans won by a small margin, ultimately
securing control over Iraq.

However, Qatar's ambitions for regional hegemony go beyond Syria.
Russia and Iran would like to gain greater influence in Egypt, but
Qatar is using its oil wealth to provide billions of dollars in aid
and loans to Egypt's government, led by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Furthermore, Qatar is supporting Hamas, which recently broke with its
long-time ally al-Assad and moved its headquarters from Syria's
capital, Damascus, to Qatar's capital, Doha. However, critics in
Egypt allege that Qatar is less interested in supporting Egypt than
they are in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, providing Russia and
Iran their own opportunities to gain influence. Globe and Mail (Toronto) and Gulf News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami, Hut,
Tamerlan Tsarnaev, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, Boston Marathon,
Kizlyar Dagestan, Magomed Kartashov,
Kyrgyzstan, Fergana Valley, Muslim Brotherhood,
Israel, IDF, West Bank, Qatar, Iran, Hamas,
Safavid Empire, Ottoman Empire

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Post#554 at 05-19-2013 08:44 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Dear Pat,

Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
> Yes. It's like having a nightmare or an idea for a horror story in
> which one of the villains has had the "brilliant young great hope
> of the Millies" possessed by the spirit of the politician
> considered the most dishonest and vindictive president of the
> modern era. I'm surprised some Stephen King hasn't already written
> it up.

> As a blogger I take wrote recently, in another context, "That
> empty feeling in the pit of your stomach is called a crisis of
> faith."

> Yet - that the candidate of the opposition should end up ratifying
> what the incumbents of That Other Party did while in office, is
> something I've seen before, and of course, cheered when it
> happened to The Other Side. Isn't there a saying about sauce for
> the gander?

> Well, another daydream bites the dust. Though I'm sure for his
> opponents,it's "another nightmare bites the dust."
Forget Stephen King. This is much more in the pattern of a Greek
tragedy. Here's something that I wrote in the 1990s with reference to
O.J. and Nicole Simpson:

I am not an expert on tragedy as an art form, but as a Greek I know
that a sense of tragedy is in my bones. Tragedy as an art form was
invented in ancient Greece, and three of four great tragic artists of
all time were Aeschylus, Sophocles and Euripides of ancient Greece,
with the fourth being Shakespeare.

Many people misunderstand the deepest meanings of tragedy. If a
child is killed in a random traffic accident, then it's a terrible
event but it's not a tragedy in the classical sense, because of that
randomness.

The essence of classical tragedy is that the tragic event is not
random. The tragic event is inevitable: it _must_ occur, and the
reason it must occur is because of the nature, the personality, the
very _character_ of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot be
prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces bringing
about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.

Like the child killed in a random traffic accident, the protagonists
of a true tragedy have a great future before them, and in the Greek
view, perhaps even a heroic future. But the heroic future turns into
disaster because the players in the true tragedy move step by step
towards that disaster; and all of us on the outside can see it
coming, because these particular players are uniquely capable of
inflicting this disaster on one another.

That's what I see happening today.

John







Post#555 at 05-19-2013 09:32 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Segolene Royal is still hot.







Post#556 at 05-19-2013 10:38 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Dear Pat,



Forget Stephen King. This is much more in the pattern of a Greek
tragedy. Here's something that I wrote in the 1990s with reference to
O.J. and Nicole Simpson:

I am not an expert on tragedy as an art form, but as a Greek I know
that a sense of tragedy is in my bones. Tragedy as an art form was
invented in ancient Greece, and three of four great tragic artists of
all time were Aeschylus, Sophocles and Euripides of ancient Greece,
with the fourth being Shakespeare.

Many people misunderstand the deepest meanings of tragedy. If a
child is killed in a random traffic accident, then it's a terrible
event but it's not a tragedy in the classical sense, because of that
randomness.

The essence of classical tragedy is that the tragic event is not
random. The tragic event is inevitable: it _must_ occur, and the
reason it must occur is because of the nature, the personality, the
very _character_ of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot be
prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces bringing
about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.

Like the child killed in a random traffic accident, the protagonists
of a true tragedy have a great future before them, and in the Greek
view, perhaps even a heroic future. But the heroic future turns into
disaster because the players in the true tragedy move step by step
towards that disaster; and all of us on the outside can see it
coming, because these particular players are uniquely capable of
inflicting this disaster on one another.

That's what I see happening today.

John
Thank you. Very much food for thought.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#557 at 05-20-2013 10:34 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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21-May-13 World View -- Wave of terrorist violence in Iraq kills hundreds

*** 21-May-13 World View -- Wave of terrorist violence in Iraq kills hundreds

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Wave of terrorist violence in Iraq kills hundreds
  • EU steps up investigation of oil price-fixing scandal


****
**** Wave of terrorist violence in Iraq kills hundreds
****



Car bombings in Iraq

A dozen car bombings across Iraq on Monday killed at least 95 people,
and this followed the killing of 200 people last week from bombings.
Terrorist violence has been on the increase in Iraq since December
2011, when the last American forces pulled out of Iraq. The violence
appears to be sectarian, with mostly Sunni mosques targeted on Friday,
and mostly Shia mosques targeted on Monday. But it's impossible to be
certain that the violence comes from Sunnis and Shias targeting each
other, since Sunni terrorists freely attack both Shia and Sunni
mosques -- killing anyone who they claim don't follow the teachings of
radical hardline Islamists. Some pundits are claiming that Iraq is
returning to the civil war that preceded President Bush's "surge," but
in fact there never was a civil war. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from April, 2007)

It's worth taking a moment and comparing three different countries
in the region, all in a generational Awakening, and being pulled into
what is essentially a sectarian proxy war:

  • Iraq has a majority Shia population and a Shia government,
    leaving the Sunni minority with widespread discrimination. Al-Qaeda
    in Iraq, originally led by Jordanian Sunni terrorist Abu Musab
    al-Zarqawi, is reviving the terrorist infiltration that was pushed out
    in 2007. As I wrote in my 2007 article referenced above, Iraqi Sunnis
    and Shias have put nationalism above sectarianism in the last two
    generational crisis wars (the Great Iraq Revolution of 1920, and the
    Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s), and there is less sectarian hatred in
    Iraq than in other Mideast countries.
  • Afghanistan's last crisis war, the civil war that ended in 1996,
    was both ethnic and highly sectarian, with a great deal of bitterness
    between Sunnis and Shias remaining. However, Afghans are not fighting
    each other, which is the result we would expect at the start of a
    generational Awakening era. Instead, Taliban terrorists are crossing
    over from Pakistan (which is in a generational Crisis era), and
    conducting terrorist acts.
  • Syria's population is majority Sunni, but it has an Alawite Shia
    government led by the psychopathic sociopathic president Bashar
    al-Assad. There is no doubt in my mind that this war would have
    collapsed 12-18 months ago if it were not for the massive support
    provided by Russia and Iran, which may be guilty of war crimes for
    providing that support. In the meantime, Qatar has been supplying
    weapons to the opposition forces.


By contrast, countries and regions that are in generational Crisis
eras, such as Pakistan or Israel/Palestine, fight their conflicts
internally, without the need for outside proxies.

We're increasingly seeing these Awakening era countries being the
sites for sectarian Sunni vs Shia proxy wars. These wars have been
worsening throughout the region, and at some point will spiral into
full scale war. AFP and AP

****
**** EU steps up investigation of oil price-fixing scandal
****


I briefly mentioned a couple of days ago that there's an investigation
into oil price-fixing, similar to the Libor price fixing
investigation. And why not? There's apparently a whole generation of
people in all industries with no visible ethical or moral boundaries.
The European Commission stepped up its investigation on Monday by
requesting information from major oil industry trading houses. Last
week, the European Commission raided the offices of Shell, BP and
Norway's Statoil. Global Research and Independent (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Shia, Sunni, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, oil-price fixing

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Post#558 at 05-21-2013 10:43 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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22-May-13 World View - Syria and allies threaten war with Israel in the Golan Heights

*** 22-May-13 World View -- Syria and allies threaten war with Israel in the Golan Heights

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Russia may make WW II criticisms illegal
  • Israel and Syria exchange fire across the Golan Heights border
  • Arab media debate whether to start a Golan Heights war against Israel


****
**** Russia may make WW II criticisms illegal
****



Russian military parade in Red Square during Victory Day celebrations on May 9 (AP)

Russia's Duma is considering passing a bill that would make
criticism of Russia's World War II actions illegal, carrying
a punishment of up to three years in prison. The bill
would be support for the drive by president Vladimir Putin
to bolster patriotism and nationalism among Russians,
including the glorification of Russian military exploits.
The bill would be a reaction to a comment made by opposition
politician Leonid Gozman, comparing Stalin to Hitler,
and Russia's intelligence services, SMERSH, to the Nazi
intelligence services, the SS:

<QUOTE>"I'm sure there were honest officers in SMERSH but
they were unfortunate to work for an agency that was as criminal
as the SS. The word SMERSH must fall into the same category as
such words as the SS, NKVD and Gestapo, and cause horror and
disgust, but not be a part of the headline for a patriotic
movie. ...

Yes, I think Stalin was as much a criminal as Hitler was, and
Stalin's punitive agencies were as criminal and disgusting as
Hitler's ones.""<END QUOTE>

This remark has triggered a Duma investigation. According to Gozman,
the Duma's initiative is "one more amusing instance of buffoonery,"
and adds that Alexander Solzhenitsyn and other great Russians have
said the same things.

It is not clear what consequences the evaluation of Gozman's comments
could have for him. Moscow Times

****
**** Israel and Syria exchange fire across the Golan Heights border
****


Syria and Israel exchanged both weapons fire and threats of war on
Tuesday over the border between Syria and Israel in the Golan Heights.
An Israeli jeep in an overnight patrol in the Golan Heights near the
border with Syria came under fire from Syrian forces across the
border, and the Israelis returned fire. There have been several such
exchanges of fire since Israel's aerial strikes in the Damascus area.
(See "6-May-13 World View -- Israeli air strike on Damascus escalates Syria crisis"
) At
that time, Syria said that Israel's move was a "declaration of war,"
and vowed to retaliate. In the latest incident, and unlike previous
incidents, Syria claimed responsibility for firing on the Israeli
patrol and threatened further strikes. Israel's Chief of Staff
Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz responded with his own threat:

<QUOTE>""We will not allow the Golan Heights to become a
comfortable space for Assad to operate from. If he deteriorates
the situation on the Golan Heights, he will have to bear the
consequences. I am not a fiery person, but we will have to know
how to defend [ourselves]. All in all, the reality on the Golan
Heights is unstable, and it is being undermined."<END QUOTE>

Syria's media outlets warned that "any future aggression by Israel
will be answered by Syria. Those who think we are weak and are trying
us are wrong." Jerusalem Post and Debka

****
**** Arab media debate whether to start a Golan Heights war against Israel
****


After Israel's May 4 airstrikes, Syria's president Bashar Al-Assad's
has been threatening to call for armed resistance to Israel in the
Golan Heights. The Golan border between Israel and Syria has in fact
been relatively quiet for 40 years, largely because the al-Assad
regimes did not want a military conflict with Israel. But now Syria
and its allies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, are threatening to open
up a Golan Heights front against Israel. According to a Lebanese
columnist close to Iran and Syria, Hezbollah will lead the military
action, with the help of Iran:

<QUOTE>The Syrian leadership has decided to provide unlimited
high-quality strategic aid to the Lebanese Islamic resistance
[i.e. Hezbollah] and to place all the resources of the Syrian army
at the disposal of the Hezbollah leadership... and to open the
gate of jihad [against Israel] from Syrian land to Arabs and
Muslims who desire it, and turn the Golan into 'the land of
resistance...'"<END QUOTE>

The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) called on Syria to open
the Golan and all the borders to operations against Israel.

However, not all Arab militias think that a Golan military action
against Israel is a good idea. Hamas in particular has broken
relations with al-Assad's regime because of its massive bloodthirsty
slaughter of innocent Syrian Arabs, and now considers getting
rid of the al-Assad regime to have a higher priority than
the resistance against Israel. One senior Hamas official
mocked the al-Assad regime:

<QUOTE>"It's strange that the Syrian regime is so
'courageous' when it comes to [attacking] its people and
bombarding them with planes and mortars, but when Israel attacks
it and destroys its military and civilian facilities and makes it
a laughing stock in the eyes of the world, it puffs itself up with
false pride and announces that it reserves the right to retaliate
in the time and place of its choosing... Yesterday the Syrian
regime announced... the launching of popular resistance. From now
on, there is a presidential authorization for the popular
resistance to shift itself to the Golan... Tomorrow popular
resistance convoys will march on the occupied Golan and occupied
Palestine... But where is the Syrian people that [is supposed to]
carry out [this] popular resistance? Isn't this the same people
that is wandering [homeless] inside and outside Syria? Isn't it
the people that is being bombarded by the regime's planes day and
night?..."<END QUOTE>

Memri


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Duma, World War II,
SMERSH, Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, Leonid Gozman,
Vladimir Putin, Alexander Solzhenitsyn,
Syria, Israel, Golan Heights, Hizbollah,
Benny Gantz, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Hamas

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Post#559 at 05-22-2013 10:48 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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23-May-13 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation

*** 23-May-13 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation
  • Charges of sorcery
  • An ideological and generational assault


****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation
****



Iran's eight approved candidates (BBC)

In a stunning generational assault, Iran's Guardians Council has
followed the wishes of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and
has disqualified all presidential candidates who do not follow
Khamenei's hardline ideology. With a new presidential election coming
next month, the council disqualified two major candidates who are
considered "centrist" or "reformist."

The most colorful rejection was of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, the top
aide and close friend of current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have had bitter power struggles for the last
four years, related to a widening theological dispute. (See "7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent"
.)

****
**** Charges of sorcery
****


In 2009 Khamenei accused Mashaei and other Ahmadinejad aides
of being sorcerers, of using "supernatural powers," and of
being "magicians" and invoking djinns (spirits).

The charges of sorcery are related to the devout belief, held by
Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief
that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to
save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian
belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the
Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve
complete enlightenment. Ahmadinejad disobeyed Supreme Leader Khamenei
in several matters, which is considered to be equivalent to disobeying
God. But Ahmadinejad was just paving the way for the return of the
Hidden Imam, and was using his claim that the Hidden Imam's return is
imminent as a justification for disobeying Khamenei. Thus, the
charges of sorcery.

But the disqualification of Mashaei as a presidential candidate
may have occurred for far more prosaic reasons. Mashaei is
very outspoken on issues of individual rights and personal
freedoms, particularly for women. These are all views that
are firmly rejected by the hardline Khamenei.

Similarly disqualified was former president Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani, who intensely dislikes Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, but who
has also criticized the Khamenei supporter for suppressing free
speech, and crushing the protests in 2009, and has advocated better
relations with the West.

Iran is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s.
America in the 1960s was a political battle between the older
generation, the hardline survivors of World War II, versus the
younger "free thinking" generation that grew up after WW II.
Iran today is in a political battle between the older generation,
the hardline survivors of the Great Islamic Revolution of
1979 and the following Iran/Iraq war, versus the younger
free thinking generation that grew up since the 1980s.

****
**** An ideological and generational assault
****


So Khamenei's move to disqualify the centrist and reformist candidates
is both an ideological assault and a generational assault. It's a
desperate move, as Khamenei sees his hardline ideology being eaten
away by younger generations who think it's perfectly OK for a woman to
walk down the street without a head scarf. Sooner or later there'll
be an "Awakening era crisis" which, like President Richard Nixon's
resignation in 1974, will settle the generational battle one way or
another. In the meantime, disqualifying all the reforming and
centrist candidates is pretty certain to infuriate the younger
generations. BBC and
AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
Mahdaviat, the Hidden Imam, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani

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24-May-13 World View -- China, Taiwan gang up on Philippines in South China Sea

*** 24-May-13 World View -- China, Taiwan gang up on Philippines in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Tension grows between Taiwan and Philippines in South China Sea
  • China versus Philippines tension grow as U.S. is distracted
  • India enters the South China Sea dispute


****
**** Tension grows between Taiwan and Philippines in South China Sea
****



The red line shows the regions claimed by China, while the blue lines shows the regions that below to other countries, according to the United Nations (SAAG)

Anti-Philippine nationalism is growing in Taiwan, over the shooting
two weeks ago of a
Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippines Coast Guard ship in a disputed
region of the South China Sea. A Philippines official has said it was
an accident and apologized, but Taiwan is calling the apology
insincere, and is demanding both a formal apology and monetary
reparations. Taiwan has already stopped approval work permits
for Filipinos applying for work in Taiwan, has banned Taiwanese
tourists from visiting the Philippines, and has sent warships
to the disputed area to conduct naval drills.

Taiwan is exploiting its economic advantage of the Philippines,
putting Philippines officials in a quandary. If there's no
apology, then the situation may continue to escalate, and Taiwan
might deport all 87,000 Filipinos currently working in Taiwan.
On the other hand, if the Philippines issues a formal apology,
it would affect navy morale and would place their legal
claim to the region in jeopardy.

Let me take this opportunity to point out that this is one more
example that contradicts the frequently heard claim that country
A will never go to war with country B because it would harm
business between the two countries. As in other examples, the
opposite is true. If A and B are big trading partners, then
trade becomes an additional weapon of war, with advantage going
to the country that will lose more economically. Asia Times

****
**** China versus Philippines tension grow as U.S. is distracted
****


When the U.S. announced its "pivot to Asia" in 2010, there was hope in
the Philippines that America would become directly involved in the
South China Sea disputes and support the Philippines' sovereignty at
least over regions in its U.N. defined exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
However, the U.S. involvement has been limited by the financial
crisis, and the U.S. has been distracted by the growing crisis in the
Mideast. As a result, the Philippines government is increasingly
taking matters into its own hands by working with other countries in
the region to gang up on China diplomatically, in the hope of forcing
China to back down on some of its claims in the South China Sea
(something that is most definitely not going to happen). Asia Times and The Diplomat

****
**** India enters the South China Sea dispute
****


China's claim to vast areas of the South China Sea that have
historically belonged to other nations is causing tensions as
far away as India. At a time when China's new prime minister
Li Keqiang is visiting India to reduce tensions between the
two countries, India's Minister of Defense has issued a
statement about the South China Sea dispute:

<QUOTE>"There should be freedom of navigation as per the UN
conventions.

India has commercial interests and though it is not a party to the
dispute, it believes that disputes should be settled as per UN
laws.

The protection of Sea-Lanes of Communication is becoming more and
more important. Economic development, trade and commerce depend on
the security of Sea Lanes of Communication."<END QUOTE>

This seems like a fairly innocuous statement, but in fact it's highly
confrontational, because China adamantly refused to have anything to
do with the U.N. conventions. China insists that it wants to settle
the South China Sea disputes only via "bilateral negotiations." This
means that China negotiates separately with each of the other
countries with historical claims to parts of the South China Sea and
use its vast military and economic power to force each country to back
down. China is furious that these countries are ganging up on China
through ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations),
since it's much harder for China to bully the entire group
collectively.

India and Vietnam have set up joint oil exploration projects within
the regions of the South China Sea that are clearly within Vietnam's
exclusive economic zone (EEZ), according to the United Nations, and
Chinese ships have nonetheless been harassing Indian and Vietnam ships
in the region. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South China Sea, Philippines,
ASEAN, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, India,
Vietnam, Taiwan, China, Li Keqiang

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25-May-13 World View -- Egypt, Hamas, Israel cooperate as Sinai becomes more volatile

*** 25-May-13 World View -- Egypt, Hamas, Israel cooperate as Sinai becomes more volatile

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Egypt, Hamas, Israel cooperate as Sinai becomes more volatile
  • Threat of widespread terror network grows as U.S. leaves Afghanistan


****
**** Egypt, Hamas, Israel cooperate as Sinai becomes more volatile
****



Egyptian soldiers deployed at Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza Strip last week (Getty)

Egypt's Sinai Peninsula region, where the borders of Gaza, Israel and
Egypt all converge, is becoming an increasing threat to Egypt, because
of Bedouin unrest and jihadist terrorism. Tensions have been high in
the Sinai since six Egyptian policemen and a soldier were kidnapped
ten days ago by a Bedouin tribe allied with al-Qaeda linked
terrorists. The hostages were finally released on Wednesday, but
there's no guarantee that there won't be more kidnappings, and
Morsi has announced that there will be a new military operation
in the Sinai to arrest the kidnappers.

When the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Morsi beause president
of Egypt in July of last year, the leaders of Hamas rejoiced. When
Hamas was formed over 30 years ago, it was actually an offshoot of the
Muslim Brotherhood. And now, with a Brotherhood candidate in power in
Egypt, Hamas foresaw a new era of freedom and joy for the residents of
Gaza, after years of alleged oppression by the Israelis. Well, like
so many other hopes and dreams in people's lives, this one didn't turn
out the way they had hoped. Morsi's relations with Hamas officials
have been quite frosty and, in particular, Morsi suggested that Hamas
or other Gaza militants might have been responsible for the jihadist
murder, in August of last year, of 16 policemen and soldiers in
Egypt's Sinai, where the borders of Gaza, Israel and Egypt all
converge. Morsi sternly warned Hamas, "May God help you if we find
your fingerprints on what happened in the Sinai." Those suspicions
were renewed by last week's Sinai kidnappings, and Hamas scrambled to
assure the Egyptians that it had nothing to do with them.

Remarkably, the terrorists in Sinai are accomplishing something that
any "peace process" had failed to do: Bring about cooperation among
Israel, Hamas and Egypt in fighting a common enemy. Al-Monitor and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Threat of widespread terror network grows as U.S. leaves Afghanistan
****


The jihadist network in Kazakhstan, inspired and financed by al-Qaeda,
the Taliban and the Caucasus Emirate, has shifted from a loose
grouping of largely autonomous militias into a unified movement that
threatens not only Kazakhstan but all of Central Asia. Islamist
groups in Kazakhstan are seeking to form an independent jihadist
network like the one that exists in Russia's North Caucasus and then
to pursue the establishment of a sharia state. That the goals of the
Kazakhstani and North Caucasian groups are so similar reflects the
influence of North Caucasus terrorist Said Buryatsky, who visited
Kazakhstan between 2004 and 2006. Buryatsky's ideas are featured on
many radical Islamist websites even now, and are often reflected in
the thinking of Salafi groups in Central Asia.

According to an analysis by Russia's military intelligence agency, the
GRU, the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan in 2014
poses a "serious challenge to international stability" and increase
the threat of terrorism and religious extremism:

<QUOTE>"A diversified terrorist network, including suicide
bomber training camps has already been established in the country
and the Taliban has close links with foreign terrorist structures
whose militants, having gained combat experience in Afghanistan,
could be sent to other hot spots across the world."<END QUOTE>

Combined with the rise of militias in Central Asia, as well as the
disintegration of Syria, al-Qaeda linked groups could use force to
establish "a global caliphate" from Morocco to Malaysia. Jamestown and Ria Novosti


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Sinai Peninsula,
Hamas, Gaza Strip, Israel, Bedouin,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Kazakhstan, Said Buryatsky, North Caucasus, Russia,
Afghanistan, Syria

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Post#562 at 05-25-2013 10:18 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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26-May-13 World View -- Syria conflict in possibly climactic battle near Lebanon

*** 26-May-13 World View -- Syria conflict in possibly climactic battle near Lebanon border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Syria conflict in possibly climactic battle near Lebanon border
  • Lebanon's Hezbollah leads the fight in Syria battle
  • Lebanon's opposition condemns Nasrallah and Hezbollah


****
**** Syria conflict in possibly climactic battle near Lebanon border
****



Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in televised speech on Saturday

The army of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, combined
with fighters from the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, is focusing
heavy firepower on the strategic city of Qusair near the border
with Lebanon. The city is important because it's on major roads that
connect Damascus with Lebanon and with the Port of Tartous on the
Mediterranean. The side gaining control of Qusair will gain a big
advantage in the war. Rebels are largely surrounded in the city,
suffering missile bombardments and air strikes, and may end up
suffering a major defeat. BBC and
Reuters

****
**** Lebanon's Hezbollah leads the fight in Syria battle
****


Hezbollah, led by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, is the Iran-sponsored Shia
terror group in Lebanon that has its own army and controls much of
Lebanon's politics. Hezbollah suffered heavy losses the last week in
the battle over Qusair, and it's estimated that there were far more
Hezbollah fighters in the battle than Syrian army soldiers.

Hezbollah's involvement in Syria's war is unpopular with many Lebanese
people. Many of them blame Hezbollah for causing the 2006 war between
Hezbollah and Israel that took place on Lebanon's soil, where a great
deal of Lebanon's infrastructure was destroyed by Israeli airstrikes.
Whether they support Hezbollah or oppose Hezbollah, most Lebanese
would not like to see another war on Lebanese soil, and they fear that
Hezbollah's actions will bring exactly that.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday gave a bombastic
televised speech intended to answer the criticisms directed at him.
He confirmed what everyone already knew -- that Hezbollah forces were
fighting in Syria on the side of the al-Assad regime. He recalled
that Saturday is the 13th anniversary of "Liberation and Resistance
Day" -- Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000:

<QUOTE>"This day should be forever remembered and this memory
must be transmitted from one generation to another. It represents
a meaningful national experience and is a passage towards the
future. ...

The importance of the Liberation Day is similar to the day the
U.S. army withdrew from Iraq and all the region's great days that
are targeted by the American-Zionist project. ...

Israel threatens Lebanon on a daily basis and has been mobilizing
its forces on the border for months. It is bombing Syria and
threatening it. Israel is ready for war. ...

Israel is building settlements on its border with Syria, Lebanon
and Jordan and is recruiting Jews from all over the world and
offering them salaries and job opportunities, and is giving them
military training and weapons... These settlements are a part of
the Israeli military plan. ...

The events in the last couple of years have proved that there is
an axis lead by the U.S. while the rest are working under its
orders. Everyone knows this axis is supported by Israel while
al-Qaeda and other Takfiri [apostate/infidel] organizations from
around the world were paid to take part in it. ...

We do not force anyone to go to the battle. They all go willingly
and aspire to take part in the resistance. You will find tens of
thousands of fighters that are ready to take all fronts. ...

I say to all the honorable people, to the mujahedeen, to the
heroes, I have always promised you a victory and now I pledge to
you a new one.<END QUOTE>

Whether Nasrallah can meet his promise of "tens of thousands of
fighters" is doubtful. It's well to remember that Syria is in a
generational Awakening era, and most people above age 30 are simply
sick of war. During the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah,
the Hezbollah fighters did not fight aggressively, mostly contenting
themselves to launch rockets at Israel and then return each day to the
arms of their wives. It's not expected that they'll be much more
enthusiastic today. Naharnet (Beirut) and Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Lebanon's opposition condemns Nasrallah and Hezbollah
****


A response to Nasrallah was given by former prime minister Saad
Hariri, whose father, Rafiq Hariri, was killed in a terrorist attack
in 2005 perpetrated by Syria and Hezbollah. His speech represents the
opinions of many people in Lebanon, which is that Nasrallah puts the
value of Hezbollah above Lebanon as a whole. Hariri he uses the words
"the resistance" to refer to Hezbollah:

<QUOTE>"The resistance [Hezbollah] ends by your [Sayyed Hasan
Nasrallah] hands and will. The resistance announced its political
and military suicide in Qusair. You have taken the resistance to
defeat in Qusair.

You have carved in Syria and with the blood of children and women
and the elderly ... an abyss that you wanted the resistance to
fall into it. Your speech is a frank announcement that you have
fallen into the abyss.

You incited sectarian and religious sentiments like never before
[during your speech]. ...

This state [Lebanon], in the eyes, beliefs and ideology of
Nasrallah, is good for nothing, neither at the political,
security, defense or economic levels.

Nasrallah calls on the Lebanese and the president and all the
political leaderships and parties and sects to acknowledge
Hezbollah's state whose word rises above the word and will of the
Lebanese republic.

You Lebanese, if you want to fight, then Nasrallah has invented an
ingenious fatwa for fighting. You Lebanese can now fight on Syrian
soil and send projects of death and martyrs to Qusair and Homs'
outskirts.

We say to Nasrallah bluntly and honestly, you can shout whatever
you want and you can threaten, launch accusations and describe the
state in whatever terms pleases you ... your latest speech is
worth nothing."<END QUOTE>

Nasrallah's speech and Hariri's reply mark reflect the increasing
sectarian violence in countries in and around the Mideast. As we've
been saying for years, the Mideast is headed for a sectarian war
between Sunnis and Shias that will engulf the entire region. Daily Star (Beirut)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, al-Qusair, Lebanon,
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Israel, Iran,
Saad Hariri, Rafiq Hariri

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Post#563 at 05-26-2013 08:49 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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27-May-13 World View -- Sunnis retaliate against Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon

*** 27-May-13 World View -- Sunnis retaliate against Hezbollah in Beirut Lebanon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Speech by Hezbollah's Nasrallah brings rockets into Beirut Lebanon
  • Russia may have canceled its S-300 missile sales to Syria
  • Iran's Supreme Leader grooms his son to take over


****
**** Speech by Hezbollah's Nasrallah brings rockets into Beirut Lebanon
****



Sunni gunmen fire weapons in Tripoli in norther Lebanon on Sunday (Reuters)

Saturday's bombastic speech
by
Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah may have signaled a turning
point in the Syrian war, possibly by triggering a sectarian spillover
of the Syrian war into Lebanon. For the first time, two rockets hit
Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon's capital Beirut on Sunday, wounding
four people. It's believed that the rockets were fired by Sunnis who
are angered by Nasrallah's promise to support Syria's psychopathic
president, Bashar al-Assad.

In Saturday's speech, Nasrallah referred to the sectarian battles
that have already been occurring in the city of Tripoli, in
northern Lebanon on the border with Syria. He said,

<QUOTE>"This absurd battle must stop and those rooting for
the victory of the Syrian regime or the opposition's rebels must
go fight in Syria instead. Leave Tripoli neutral from Syria's
conflict."<END QUOTE>

Unfortunately for Nasrallah, Sunday's missile strikes into his
heartland in Beirut show that he's not nearly in control of events as
he apparently believes that he is. He now has to decide whether to
retaliate against Sunni fighters for the missile strikes in Beirut, or
else to portray weakness by ignoring them. The National (UAE) and AP

****
**** Russia may have canceled its S-300 missile sales to Syria
****


Russia has received a great deal of international criticism for its
support with money and weapons for the regime of Syria's psychopathic
president Bashar al-Assad. A media report says that Russia and Israel
have made a "secret deal":

  • Russia will cancel its contract to sell advanced long-range
    S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. Russia has said that the
    weapons are defensive only, and that the contract was made long
    ago.
  • Israel will promise not to conduct any more air strikes on Syria.
    Previous Israeli air strikes had targeted weapons that were allegedly
    being shipped to Lebanon's terror group Hezbollah.


One of the reasons given for reaching the agreement with Israel is
Israel's Russian community:

<QUOTE>"We are very much concerned about this; the large
Russian community in Israel is a major factor in our attitude to
Israel, and we will not let this happen."<END QUOTE>

However, an Israeli official called the report a "fairy tale":

<QUOTE>"This story is detached from reality. A
fairytale. There was no agreement or understanding achieved
between [Russia's] Putin and [Israel's] Netanyahu. That's another
piece of fantasizing."<END QUOTE>

Russia has previously cancelled the shipment of high-altitude Mig-31E
interceptor jets to Syria and the supply of the Iskander-E tactical
ballistic missiles. Russia Today and
YNet

****
**** Iran's Supreme Leader grooms his son to take over
****


As we reported several days ago (see "23-May-13 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation"
), Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has
seen to it all that any "reformist" candidate for the June 14
presidential election has been disqualified. It now turns out that
Khamenei is arranging for the victory of 68-year-old Gholam Ali
Haddad-Adel to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. Haddad-Adel
is an academic with little experience in governing, but his daughter
is married to Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei. So unlike
Ahmadinejad, Haddad-Adel can be counted on to be compliant to the
Supreme Leader's demands, and to keep the president's seat warm for
his son to take over in 2017. Iran is in a generational Awakening era
(like America in the 1960s and 1970s), and so we can expect the
election of the fossil Haddad-Adel to trigger even more student
protests than Ahmadinejad did. Debka


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Beirut, Lebanon, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Tripoli,
Russia, Israel, S-300 missiles,
Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, Mojtaba Khamenei

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Post#564 at 05-27-2013 10:45 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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28-May-13 World View -- EU lifts weapons embargo to Syria's opposition militias

*** 28-May-13 World View -- EU lifts weapons embargo to Syria's opposition militias

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • EU lifts weapons embargo to Syria's opposition militias
  • New wave of bombings strikes Shias across Baghdad, Iraq
  • Roadside bomb kills five policemen in northwest Pakistan


****
**** EU lifts weapons embargo to Syria's opposition militias
****



Devastation in Syria (Reuters)

In a startling development late on Monday, European Union foreign
ministers meeting in Brussels were unable to overcome their bickering
and division to agree on the terms of an extension of the embargo on
supplying weapons to Syria's opposition rebels, which is set to expire
next week on June 1. The result is that, unless a new agreement is
reached, individual EU nations are now each permitted to provide
weapons to opposition forces fighting the Bashar al-Assad
regime.

France and Britain, with mixed support from the United States, are in
favor of supplying weapons to the opposition, while Austria and other
countries strongly oppose it. France and Britain put forth a
compromise proposal to extend the embargo for two months, on condition
that it would be partially lifted when the two months ended. They
argued that the mere threat of the embargo ending would cause al-Assad
to back down and stop killing innocent women and children, a claim
that's really laughable. Anyway, the compromise got nowhere, and now
there's no embargo at all.

Those who support supplying weapons to the opposition say that
al-Assad's regime has been making significant military gains in the
conflict, thanks to the use of heavy weapons supplied by Russia and
Iran.

Those who oppose supplying weapons to the rebels express the fear that
the weapons will end up in the hands of al-Qaeda linked terrorists, as
happened in Libya. Al-Qaeda linked terrorists obtained weapons and
training from the Libya military action, and are now making
terror strikes on target across the "Sahel" region of Africa,
including Mali and Niger.

Britain and France say that they have no immediate plans to supply
arms to the rebels. Telegraph (London) and Independent (London)

****
**** New wave of bombings strikes Shias across Baghdad, Iraq
****


A new escalating wave of car bombings struck mostly Shia Muslim
neighborhoods in and around Baghdad on Monday, in the latest round of
terrorist violence that have killed more than 430 people so far in
May. It's assumed that the perpetrators were Sunni terrorists from
al-Qaeda in Iraq. Iraq's Shia government has been increasingly
marginalizing Sunnis ever since the American soldiers withdrew in
December, 2011, and it's believed that Sunni terrorists have been
using terrorism to retaliate. AFP and AP

****
**** Roadside bomb kills five policemen in northwest Pakistan
****


Terrorist bombings are almost a daily occurrence in Pakistan, and a
remote controlled roadside bomb exploded on Monday in northwest
Pakistan, killing five policemen and destroying their vehicle.
Sectarian terrorist violence has been increasing, from Central and
South Asia into the Mideast, and that trend will continue until it
spirals into war. Daily Times (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Syria,
France, Britain, Austria, Bashar al-Assad, al-Qaeda,
Libya, Mali, Niger, Sunni, Shia, Iraq, Pakistan

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Post#565 at 05-27-2013 11:35 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,371]
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Are we going to see a civil war between different Muslim factions?







Post#566 at 05-28-2013 10:47 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
Are we going to see a civil war between different Muslim factions?
That appears to be where things are headed.







Post#567 at 05-28-2013 09:26 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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29-May-13 World View -- Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales

*** 29-May-13 World View -- Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Russia retaliates against EU by confirming weapons sales to Syria
  • Buddhist vs Muslim violence in Burma (Myanmar) spreads north


****
**** Russia retaliates against EU by confirming weapons sales to Syria
****



Russia's S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems (AP)

Russia said Tuesday that it would go ahead with the planned transfer
of state of the art S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to the regime of
Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad. The announcement was
made in retaliation for Sunday's announcement
by the European Union that its member nations had
failed to reach agreement on extending the embargo, set to expire on
Saturday, on weapons to al-Assad's opposition. Britain and France
have led the demands to supply weapons to the opposition.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov used strong language to
criticize the EU decision and justify Russia's delivery of the S-300s:

<QUOTE>"We think this delivery is a stabilizing factor and
that such steps in many ways restrain some hotheads ... from
exploring scenarios in which this conflict could be given an
international character with participation of outside forces, to
whom this idea is not foreign."<END QUOTE>

Russia had previously promised Israel it would delay the
S-300 delivery, so the new announcement represents a reversal,
although no new delivery date was set. According to Israel's
Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon:

<QUOTE>"I can say that the shipments are not on their way
yet. I hope they will not leave, and if, God forbid, they reach
Syria, we will know what to do."<END QUOTE>

What Yaalon means, presumably, is that Israel will launch air strikes,
targeting the S-300 systems, if they reach Syria. The Israelis point
out that the S-300s, with a range of 125 miles, are not purely
defensive, since they can target Israel's civilian aircraft.

Britain's foreign secretary William Hague, said that Britain has not
set a date either:

<QUOTE>"We have said, we have made our own commitments, that
at this stage, as we work for the Geneva conference, we are not
taking any decision to send any arms to anyone."<END QUOTE>

Both Britain and Russia gave similar reasons for their respective
decisions -- that their side's weapons will provide stability to
Syria. However, with Britain, France, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah in
Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey all supplying, or potentially
supplying weapons to either side in Syria, and with the spilling over
into Iraq and Lebanon, the country's sectarian proxy war took another
giant leap forward on Tuesday. Reuters and Guardian (London)

****
**** Buddhist vs Muslim violence in Burma (Myanmar) spreads north
****


Hundreds of people, mostly Muslims, have already been killed in
sectarian violence in Burma between Buddhists and Muslims, first in
Rakhine State in the southwest last year, and then in central Burma in
March. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
.) Now there's been a new wave of sectarian
violence, this time in the city of Lashio in northern Burma, near the
border with China.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is
a great example of identity group formation. The initial violence, in
Rakhine state, was, in my opinion, not violence between religious
groups, but rather violence between ethnic groups, dark-skinned
Rohingya versus lighter skinned Burmese. However, Burma is a mostly
Buddhist country, and the Rohingya are mostly Muslim, and so Muslims
in other parts of Burma began to identify with the Rohingya, and
Buddhists throughout the country formed their own identity group. So
the ethnic violence has now been transformed, through identity group
formation, into religious violence that seems increasingly likely to
spiral into a larger sectarian war. Reuters

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, European Union, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad, Britain, France, Sergei Ryabkov,
Israel, Moshe Yaalon, William Hague,
Burma, Myanmar, Muslims, Buddhists, Rakhine State,
Rohingyas

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Post#568 at 05-29-2013 05:59 PM by JDG 66 [at joined Aug 2010 #posts 2,116]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales...
-Do you really think this rises to the level of an EU-Russian proxy war?







Post#569 at 05-29-2013 09:18 PM by Galen [at joined Aug 2010 #posts 1,019]
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Quote Originally Posted by JDG 66 View Post
-Do you really think this rises to the level of an EU-Russian proxy war?
More like a US-Russian proxy war. Going through Syria would make a war with Iran simpler, there are US troops in Jordan. I very much doubt the Russians want US troops camped out on their former border.
If one rejects laissez faire on account of mans fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action.
- Ludwig von Mises

Beware of altruism. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil.
- Lazarus Long







Post#570 at 05-29-2013 10:11 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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30-May-13 World View -- U.S. State Department demands that Hezbollah leave Syria

*** 30-May-13 World View -- U.S. State Department demands that Hezbollah leave Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Russia establishes military bases in captured Georgian territory
  • Arabs criticize President Obama on Syria
  • U.S. State Department demands that Hezbollah leave Syria


****
**** Russia establishes military bases in captured Georgian territory
****



Georgia, highlighting Abkhazia and South Ossetia

When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, it took control of two Georgian
provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and has discussed the
possibility of either absorbing them into Russia or recognizing them
as independent nations. The Georgian leadership has said that
relations with Russia will not be normalized unless Abkhazia and South
Ossetia are returned to Georgia, something that is not going to
happen. To the contrary, Russia has greatly strengthened its military
presence in both provinces, with about 5,000 military personnel in
Abkhazia and 3,500 more in South Ossetia. The military occupation of
these formerly Georgian territories sends a clear and aggressive
signal to Georgia and the rest of the world that Russia is here to
stay. Jamestown

****
**** Arabs criticize President Obama on Syria
****


American public opinion is split on the question of Western military
intervention in Syria. Most Americans don't have a clue what's going
on, and would not be able to distinguish between "Syria" and "cereal".
Among those who are aware of what's going on, both Democrats and
Republicans are split on whether or not to militarily intervene.
Europe is also split, with Britain and France favoring intervention,
and other countries, led by Austria, strongly opposing it.

Public opinion in the Arab world is also split, sharply along Sunni
versus Shia lines. The Shia terrorist group Hezbollah, supported by
Iran and Russia, are warning the West to stay out, even as they
continue to supply weapons to the regime of Syria's psychopathic
president Bashar al-Assad.

Sunni Arab public opinion is highly critical of the West for allowing
tens of thousands of innocent Arabs to be slaughtered and hundreds of
thousands to be driven from their homes, and much of the criticism is
highly personal, directed at President Barack Obama.

In particular, many Arabs see the agreement between the U.S. and
Russia to hold another international conference as just one more sign
of American weakness, giving in to Russia's demands and giving
al-Assad more time to kill innocent Arab women and children in their
beds. According to one Saudi Arabian columnist Mashari Al-Zaydi:

<QUOTE>"The problem of U.S. President Barack Obama can be
summed up in a single word: hesitation. The man is short-sighted,
confused and diffident. It seems that the gist of his policy is
disagreeing with every position of his predecessor, George
W. Bush, and that is quarrelsomeness, not policy.

This assessment of Obama's policy is not voiced only by his
Republican rivals in the U.S., or by those who hate some [aspects]
of his global [foreign] policy, but also by some proponents of his
own school of thought, like the well-known American author David
Ignatius, who recently wrote a critique of the Obama
administration's policy that was not confined to foreign [policy]
affairs... Summarizing the problematic aspects of Obama's conduct,
he said that the public is more afraid of a weak administration
than a strong one!

We are not talking [only] about harsh critics of this
administration, inside or outside the U.S. This is apparent from a
recent article by Lebanese-American writer Fuad 'Ajami, who
slammed Obama for his feebleness, his lack of leadership, and his
inability to take bold decisions under difficult circumstances,
especially when it comes to his position on the Syrian
catastrophe. Nor is it only Republicans who attack
[Obama]. [Criticism is also voiced] by people who were overjoyed
by the arrival [in the White House] of a black Harvard graduate
with African and Islamic roots, the son of Hussein Obama. [They
expected him] to have a better understanding of the Islamic and
Arab societies and their nature. But eventually, as the
helplessness of the international community [to address the
situation] in Syria increased due to the [conduct of] the U.S. and
Obama, it became apparent that this man is unable to lead and that
he hides his failure and ignorance behind a lot of hypothetical
talk about red, green and purple lines..."<END QUOTE>

I agree with those who claim that American and Western intervention
two years ago had a good chance of bringing the horrific battle to an
early end. But we have to recognize that the same Saudi writers who
were critical of America's intervention in Iraq are now critical of
America for NOT intervening in Syria. America's role as policemen of
the world is not an easy one. Memri

****
**** U.S. State Department demands that Hezbollah leave Syria
****


According to a statement by the U.S. Department of State on
Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"[W]e condemn in the strongest terms Hassan
Nasrallah’s recent declarations confirming Hezbollah’s militants –
Hezbollah militants’ active role in the fighting in Qusair and
other parts of Syria. This is an unacceptable and extremely
dangerous escalation. We demand that Hezbollah withdraw its
fighters from Syria immediately. We remain deeply concerned about
reports of multiple cross-border security incidents in recent
days. We also condemn yesterday’s outrageous attack on a Lebanese
army checkpoint near Arsal which killed three soldiers. These and
other incidents are stark reminders that the conflict in Syria
poses an incredibly dangerous threat to Lebanon’s stability, the
people of Lebanon and security. We call on all parties to do their
part to act with restraint and respect Lebanon’s stability and
security."<END QUOTE>

I don't know if anyone in the State Dept. has a sense of humor, but
this statement will definitely be treated as a joke by Russia, Iran
and everyone in the Mideast, particularly by Hezbollah itself. This
is just one more example of an empty pseudo-threat by the Obama
administration that, like the various empty "red line" threats, only
illustrates the chaos and utter confusion in Washington Mideast
policy. U.S. Department of State


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia,
Syria, Britain, France, Hezbollah, Shia, Sunni,
Bashar al-Assad, Mashari Al-Zaydi, Iraq,
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Qusair

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Post#571 at 05-30-2013 07:18 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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Quote Originally Posted by JDG 66 View Post
> Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales...
> -Do you really think this rises to the level of an
> EU-Russian proxy war?
I would call it an Iran vs Sunni Arab proxy war, with other nations
joining in on one side or the other.

Still, if it ever reaches the point where the two sides are fighting
each other with EU and Russian weapons, respectively, then one might
indeed call it an EU vs Russia proxy war. However, things would have
to be really serious at that point.







Post#572 at 05-30-2013 10:08 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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31-May-13 World View -- Syria tensions grow as al-Assad claims he's winning

*** 31-May-13 World View -- Syria tensions grow as al-Assad claims he's winning

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Claim of S-300 missile delivery to Syria is denied
  • Israel prepares to launch airstrikes at S-300s
  • Confident Bashar al-Assad says that his side is winning


****
**** Claim of S-300 missile delivery to Syria is denied
****



Al-Assad in tv interview (SANA)

In a televised interview, Bashar al-Assad, the psychopathic president
of Syria, appeared to be claiming that Russia has already delivered
advanced long-range S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria, and that
more of them were on the way. However, that report was apparently put
forth by an over-anxious editor at Al Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper.
Careful analysis of al-Assad's words reveal that he hedged on the
question. One possible explanation for the confusion is that a few
components for the S-300 missile systems have already been delivered,
but the main delivery is yet to come. Ria Novosti and VOA

****
**** Israel prepares to launch airstrikes at Russian S-300 missiles
****


During the 2006 Israeli war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hezbollah
launched about 4,000 rockets at Israel. These rockets had limited
range and no guidance systems, so their effectiveness was not great.

The S-300 missile systems that Russia is delivering to Syria are far
from the purely defensive that Russia is claiming. They have
sophisticated guidance systems and a range of 125 miles, in a climate
where al-Assad is threatening war with Israel. With those
capabilities, the al-Assad regime could destroy a civilian aircraft
during takeoff and landing, or could establish a no-fly zone over
Israeli territory.

If and when Russia delivers the S-300s to Syria, it's thought that
they will be installed and operated by hundreds of Russian military
personnel who would be killed in an Israeli air strike. Israel is
saying that they will not be attacked until they're deployed, which
will be a few weeks or months after they're delivered. Reuters and Reuters

****
**** Confident Bashar al-Assad says that his side is winning
****


Syria's president Bashar al-Assad appeared confident during
his televised interview that his side was winning in
the two-year-old Syrian conflict. Analysts agree that
in recent weeks the war has turned in al-Assad's favor,
for several reasons:

  • Russia and Iran continue to supply heavy weapons to
    the al-Assad regime, while the opposition forces are short
    of weapons.
  • Hezbollah has sent some 7,000 militia fighters to join
    the Syrian regime army.
  • The opposition forces are becoming increasingly fragmented,
    with some al-Qaeda linked groups and some "moderate" groups
    all competing for attention and poorly coordinating their
    forces.
  • The al-Assad regime supporter nations -- mainly Russia and Iran --
    are unequivocal in their support, while Western nations supporting the
    opposition have confused, chaotic policies loaded with empty,
    meaningless "red line" threats.


VOA and McClatchy


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Russia, Iran, al-Qaeda

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Post#573 at 05-31-2013 10:41 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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1-Jun-13 World View -- Pakistan condemns American drone strikes

*** 1-Jun-13 World View -- Pakistan condemns American drone strikes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Pakistan's incoming prime minister Sharif condemns American drone strikes
  • Pakistan's Taliban peace negotiations concern Afghanistan
  • Eurozone unemployment at historic highs


****
**** Pakistan's incoming prime minister Sharif condemns American drone strikes
****



Nawaz Sharif

Pakistan's incoming Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, is reportedly
"irritated" by a drone attack earlier this week that killed the second
in command in the Pakistan branch of the Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP). Sharif on Friday expressed "serious concern and deep
disappointment" over the drone strike. He said that he would ask the
United States to "exercise restraint and give peace a chance":

<QUOTE>"The drone attack is not only a violation of the
country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity but also an action
that has been declared a violation of international law and UN
charter."<END QUOTE>

And aide to Sharif said that the drone strike was highly regrettable,
"particularly as [President Obama] had spoken of initiating a new
policy which would ensure greater exercise of care and caution in the
use of this technology." Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** Pakistan's Taliban peace negotiations concern Afghanistan
****


Sharif has been advocating a negotiated peace with the TTP, and is now
blaming the U.S. for a breakdown in the negotiations. The whole
negotiated peace concept is a fantasy, as if the TTP-linked
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi would ever give up targeting Shia and Sufi shrines
across Pakistan and Afghanistan. (See "17-Feb-13 World View -- Another horrific bomb attack targets Shias in Quetta, Pakistan"
) Nonetheless, a politician's job in
any country is to promote such fantasies.

Sharif, 63, has been prime minister twice before. During the 1980s,
when the Afghan government was backed by the Soviet Union, Sharif
backed the jihadists who were a precursor to the Taliban, and then
backed the Taliban when they took over in 1997. The brutal Taliban
government was not dislodged until the American invasion of
Afghanistan that followed the terrorist attacks on 9/11/2001.

Now, many Afghan leaders foresee a repeat of Sharif's earlier
policies, including support for a Taliban coup against the current
government in Kabul. Sharif's plans for peace negotiations with the
TTP (Pakistan Taliban) are seen as a way of allowing TTP to redirect
attacks away from Pakistan, and to join with the Afghan Taliban to
attack targets within Afghanistan. According to one Afghan MP:

<QUOTE>"There can be no hope his policies will lead to an
improvement in relations with Afghanistan. He was the individual
who set about destroying this country once the pro-Soviet regime
collapsed, and we are still burning in that fire."<END QUOTE>

Institute for War & Peace Reporting (London) and The Nation (Pakistan)

****
**** Eurozone unemployment at historic highs
****


Unemployment reached a 12.2% in the 17-nation eurozone in April,
marking a new record since the EU began tracking the figures in 1995.
Unemployment reached record levels in France, while youth unemployment
reached 40% in France and Italy, and 65% in Greece. European
officials are now increasingly concerned about a social breakdown from
the financial crisis, as happened in 1933 when the Nazis came to power
in Germany.

At the same time, consumer price inflation was at 1.4% in May, far
below the predicted level of 2%. The weak inflation is expected to
lead to pressure on the European Central Bank to "print" a lot more
money in the form of quantitative easing, though that hasn't helped
the general economy so far. And in Japan, where the Bank of Japan has
been pouring out astronomically high amounts of quantitative easing,
the core inflation rate fell 0.4% in April, for the sixth straight
month of decline.

As I've been saying on my web site for almost ten years now, from the
point of view of Generational Dynamics what we're seeing now is a
worldwide deflationary spiral, the first since the 1930s. This is
caused by generational behaviors and attitudes, and no amount of
quantitative easing can stop it. Reuters and Japan Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif,
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi,
Afghanistan, Soviet Union,
eurozone, unemployment, France, Italy, Greece, Japan

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Post#574 at 06-01-2013 09:58 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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2-Jun-13 World View -- China blasts Philippines over stranded warship from 1999

*** 2-Jun-13 World View -- China blasts Philippines over stranded warship from 1999

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Police crackdown in Turkey sparks huge anti-government rallies
  • China blasts Philippines over stranded warship from 1999
  • PLA: China faces increasing 'strategic pressure' in Asia


****
**** Police crackdown in Turkey sparks huge anti-government rallies
****



Thousands of protesters occupy park in Istanbul (Zaman)

A simple protest of plans to turn a small Istanbul, Turkey, park into
a shopping center began peacefully on Tuesday with 50 activist
neighbors of the park. They set up "occupy" type tents to prevent
trees from being removed. One politician even stood before an
excavation backhoe to block it, comparing himself to the man who stood
before the tanks in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, or Boris Yeltsin
climbing on a tank in Moscow's Red Square. Things changed early
Friday morning, when the police cracked down and attacked the
demonstrators with tear gas canisters and water cannon. By Saturday,
the small protest had grown into an anti-government protest by
thousands of demonstrators in Istanbul and with copycat protests in
cities across Turkey, demanding that Turkey's prime minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan step down. It's expected that the protests will simmer
down at some point, but some people are comparing them to the initial
protests in 2010 that led the Arab Spring. Zaman (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey)

****
**** China blasts Philippines over stranded warship from 1999
****


China, which is pursuing a policy of using its vast military power to
confiscate as much of other nations' territory as it can, blasted the
Philippines on Thursday for delays in removing a warship that was
grounded on the Ayungin Shoal / Renai Reef near the Spratly Islands in
1999. China is calling the grounded ship a "serious encroachment of
territorial sovereignty," and warned the Philippines not to stir up
any more trouble in the South China Sea. China is claiming
"indisputable" sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including
many regions that have historically belonged to other countries,
including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. All
these nations, except Brunei, have troops stationed on various islands
in the Spratlys to assert their respective claims. China is demanding
that each of these nations avoid trouble by simply giving up their
claims, and turning the entire region over to Chinese sovereignty.
China Daily and The Tribune (Philippines)

****
**** PLA: China faces increasing 'strategic pressure' in Asia
****


According to a new report by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA),
"the complexity, sensitivity and uncertainty of China's security
environment loom large." Territorial disputes between China and
Japan, and also between China and various countries bordering the
South China Sea, are becoming fiercer, and has even provoked
interference by the United States. According to Yue Gang, a retired
PLA colonel, China has always faced these confrontations, especially
since it has become the largest communist state:

<QUOTE>"But that was a confrontation over ideology, while
this time it is about territorial dispute. Any compromise in
these disputes will trigger a wave of nationalist movements in the
relevant countries."<END QUOTE>

South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Istanbul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
China, Philippines, Spratly Islands,
Ayungin Shoal, Renai Reef, South China Sea,
People's Liberation Army, Japan

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Post#575 at 06-02-2013 08:33 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,012]
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3-Jun-13 World View -- China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems

*** 3-Jun-13 World View -- China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems
  • China's Depsang Plain incursion
  • The results of Li Keqiang's visit to India
  • Syria's opposition fighters clash with Hezbollah in Lebanon


****
**** China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems
****



China's Prime Minister Li Keqiang (L) shakes hands with President Xi Jinping (Getty)

With China's new government in power, led by president Xi Jinping,
the new prime minister Li Keqiang chose India as his first
international visit, with the nominal objectives of reducing
tensions in at least three areas: India/China border disputes,
trade and commercial relations, and China-Pakistan relations. An
analysis from the point of view of India indicates failures
in all three areas.

****
**** China's Depsang Plain incursion
****


Li Keqiang's visit to India was overshadowed by a recent incident in
the Depsang Plain region of the border between China and India. On
April 15, China's military intruded 19 kilometers past the agreed
"line of actual control" (LAC) that supposedly defines the India/China
border, into the Depsang Plain. The intrusion threatened a 750 square
km region whose access was blocked by China's military. According to
Indian analysts, China's has used this technique frequently during the
past few decades: Use the military to take control of a piece of
Indian territory, then claim "indisputable" sovereignty via some
distant historical claim -- the same technique that the Chinese have
used time after time in the South China Sea.

From the Indian point of view, India forced the Chinese to retreat by
resorting to diplomatic hardball: Specifically, the Indians threatened
to cancel Li Keqiang's trip unless the Chinese pulled out, which they
did. One may assume that India's victory will be short-lived, as
China can return to its previous behavior now that Li's visit has
ended. India Times and The Hindu

****
**** The results of Li Keqiang's visit to India
****


For the three nominal reasons for Li's visit to India, little
or nothing was accomplished from the Indian point of view:

  • China refused to commit to a demarcation of the
    LAC boundary, which would presumably end boundary disputes
    like the Depsang plains incident, since China evidently
    wants to continue the technique of military incursions,
    followed by claims that the captured land is "indisputably"
    Chinese territory.
  • While trade between China and India has been growing rapidly and
    exponentially, the trade deficit, in China's favor, has been growing
    rapidly and exponentially as well. India exports raw materials to
    China, and China floods the Indian market with finished goods, thus
    sharply reducing India's manufacturing capacity. Li offered nothing
    to solve this problem, or to open Chinese markets to Indian
    products.
  • China ships massive amounts of weapons to Pakistan, everything
    from fighter aircraft to missiles to naval vessels, including a
    nuclear weapons program. These weapons will be used in India's
    approaching "two-front war" -- one front being China, the other being
    Pakistan.


The Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) (New Delhi)

****
**** Syria's opposition fighters clash with Hezbollah in Lebanon
****


The Syria conflict continues to spill over into Lebanon where, for the
first time, Syria's opposition fighters are carrying the fight into
Lebanon, in response to last week's announcement by Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah that Hezbollah fighters would actively fight
alongside the Syrian army in Syria. The clashes in Lebanon occur just
as it appears that the Syrian army is close to winning a major victory
in Qusair, Syria, where thousands of civilians trapped and are under
attack. Al-Jazeera and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang,
India, Depsang Plain, Line of Actual Control, LAC,
Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah

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