I doubted that comment. Thought so:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enabling_act

The German word Ermächtigungsgesetz usually refers to the Enabling Act of 1933... Hitler's Act

• was limited to four years, not several months... The Enabling Act of 1933 was renewed by a purely Nazi Reichstag in 1937 and 1939...

...so, FWIW, it wasn't unconstitutional until after 1939.

*Blink*

Are you not familiar with commas? Let me change that for you:

passed the Enabling Act in the wake of the Reichstag Fire [separate thought in a list]... declared himself president (later Fuhrer) in defiance of the enabling act.

The Enabling act was quasi-legitimate (not really, but notionally). Declaring himself President and leader after Hindenberg died was a direct violation of the terms of the Enabling Act, which was a constitutional amendment.

No points.

Hitler had to create a totalitarian regime; Xi gets to inherit one. Creating a totalitarian regime usually requires cracking a lot of heads. After six decades of totalitarianism, mot of the heads were either cracked long ago, went somewhere where they wouldn't be cracked, or talk and comport themselves in such a way as to not be cracked.

Don't agree that authoritarian and totalitarian are the same thing; the PRC hasn't been a totalitarian state since Mao died. Otherwise I agree.

Whether Xi is "the next Hitler" is a different question, but the current level of violence in the PRC isn't a good indicator of his attitude.

That's what I mean. A hegemonic war between China and the US is entirely possible, declaring that Xi Jinping today is the equivalent to Hitler in 1938 is a gross exaggeration, and could very well turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Don't jump the gun.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

Don't agree that authoritarian and totalitarian are the same thing; the PRC hasn't been a totalitarian state since Mao died.

Nor has it been an ideological once since about then, either. Deng Xiaoping summed the Chinese pov regarding ideology really well... "Be it a black cat or a white cat, if it catches mice it is a good cat."

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... passed the Enabling Act in the wake of the Reichstag Fire [separate thought in a list]...

-I don't think anyone's really claiming that the Nazis set the Reichstag fire anymore.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

...The Enabling act was quasi-legitimate (not really, but notionally)...

.

-Actually, I think the Reichstag could pass laws like that under Weimar, which wasn't the US Constitution. If you have something specific, let me know. The Enabling Act refers to a lot of specific Articles in the constitution, which I don't have the inclination to pick through right now, so maybe you're right.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... declared himself president (later Fuhrer) in defiance of the enabling act...Declaring himself President and leader after Hindenberg died was a direct violation of the terms of the Enabling Act, which was a constitutional amendment...

...Hitler declared himself Fuehrer because he was simultaneously the head of the NSDAP, the Chancellor, and the President.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enabling_Act_of_1933

Now, the Wiki article says this:

...two of the penultimate measures Hitler took to consolidate his power violated the Enabling Act... A few months later, Hindenburg died, and Hitler seized the president's powers for himself in accordance with a law passed the previous day. However, the Enabling Act specifically forbade Hitler from tampering with the presidency.

...now, I don't see where they get that, unless you interpret the phrase in Article 2 saying that the Presidency "The rights of the President remains undisturbed" ("bleiben unberuehrt") to mean that the Chancellorship and the Presidency could not be united in one person under the Enabling Act. It looks more like presidential powers can't be tampered with, not that one man can't hold both jobs.

There was also this, however:

...two of the penultimate measures Hitler took to consolidate his power violated the Enabling Act. In February 1934, the Reichsrat, representing the states, was abolished even though the Enabling Act specifically protected the existence of that chamber...

...interestingly, we have the exact same feature in our constitution. Maybe they copied that part? Not that it saved them.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... Don't agree that authoritarian and totalitarian are the same thing; the PRC hasn't been a totalitarian state since Mao died. Otherwise I agree...

-The key here is that the PRC certainly went through a totalitarian phase, and is at least in an authoritarian phase today. My point is that all the heavy lifting of tyranny was done decades ago. Xi doesn't have to be blatant.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... A hegemonic war between China and the US is entirely possible, declaring that Xi Jinping today is the equivalent to Hitler in 1938 is a gross exaggeration, and could very well turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy...

-If someone could me Hitler, I don't think that would make me turn into Hitler.

Not that people haven't tried...

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

...No points...

-We'll see...

*** 12-Jun-13 World View -- Déjà vu in Turkey as riots threaten Erdogan regime

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Déjà vu in Turkey as riots threaten Erdogan regime
• Greece's disaster du jour: Privatization of natural gas firm collapses
• Greece's citizens shocked when state broadcaster is shut down

****
**** Déjà vu in Turkey as riots threaten Erdogan regime
****


Turkey's Erdogan addresses supporters and denounces demonstrators (Reuters)

What began as peaceful protests by a few dozen people in Gezi Park in
Istanbul, Turkey, two weeks ago have now grown to anti-government
protests by tens of thousands of people in Istanbul's Taksim Square,
with additional protests in cities across Turkey. On Tuesday,
Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan toughened his
rhetoric, said he would show "no more tolerance" for the
massive protests, and sent in the riot police, who used
tear gas, rubber bullets, water cannons, and bulldozers
to drive the protesters out. The situation is reminiscent
of the small protests that began in Tunisia and Egypt
and ended up as huge protests that overthrew the countries'
leaders. In addition, Erdogan has to be careful not to
allow too much violence, or he'll be unfavorably compared
to his next-door neighbor, president Bashar al-Assad of Syria.

Unlike the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Syria, Erdogan came
to power in Turkey ten years ago by winning an election,
and he's been reelected twice since them, making him a popular
leader.

But Erdogan's leadership has opened up a major political fault line in
Turkey, the Islamists versus the secularists. After the mighty
Ottoman Empire was destroyed in 1922 in the aftermath of World War I,
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, ended the Muslim
Caliphate and declared Turkey to be a secular state. For example,
since the 1920s it was actually illegal for women to wear headscarves
in public buildings, until Erdogan reversed that rule in 2007. (See
"More than a million of secularists rally in Turkey"
from 2007.)

The area around what is now called Taksim Square was only partially
inhabited, housing a military barracks and military training ground.
It became Taksim Square in the early 1920s and is a symbol of
Ataturk's secularist revolution. Now Erdogan wants to enlarge Taksim
Square, to rebuild the old Ottoman era military barracks and a mosque
on the grounds, and Turkey's secularists see that as just one more
example of Erdogan's determination to destroy all symbols of Ataturk
and secularism, and to turn back the clock to the days of the Ottoman
Empire.

It's been only two weeks since the protests started. Perhaps Erdogan
will be forced to step down, or maybe the army will become more
violent, or maybe the political fault line will turn into a more
violent fault line. Turkey is in a generational Crisis era, and so a
replaying of the 1908 Young Turk's Revolution is in the air. It will
be interesting to watch what happens next. AFP and CNN

****
**** Greece's disaster du jour: Privatization of natural gas firm collapses
****

Barely a day goes by when the news about Greece's economy doesn't
worsen, and Tuesday was no exception. The plan was that Greece would
privatize its government-owned natural gas firm DEPA, raising as much
as 1 billion euros, to help offset the country's massive debt, and
satify the terms of the bailout agreement with Greece's European
creditors. However, Greece did not get a single bid for DEPA, and the
failure became apparent on Monday when Russian energy giant Gazprom
withdrew from the bidding. This throws Greece's entire privatization
program into chaos. Now Greece will (theoretically) have to find
another way to make up for the 1 billion euros, if it's to meet its
bailout terms. Reuters

****
**** Greece's citizens shocked when state broadcaster is shut down
****

Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras took a desperate decision on
Tuesday when he announced that he would shut down the public
broadcaster ERT and dismiss some 2,700 employees. The shutdown
affects television stations, radio stations, and magazines. The
shutdown takes place immediately at midnight on Tuesday. The decision
was met with derision from opposition parties and TV and radio
employees, and dismay from the European Broadcasting Union. Kathimerini and Kathimerini


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Gezi Park, Taksim Square, Istanbul, Tunisia, Egypt,
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Ottoman Empire,
Greece, Russia, Gazprom, Antonis Samaras

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Actually, I think the Reichstag could pass laws like that under Weimar, which wasn't the US Constitution. If you have something specific, let me know. The Enabling Act refers to a lot of specific Articles in the constitution, which I don't have the inclination to pick through right now, so maybe you're right.

The Reichstag had the power to amend the Constitution just like ordinary legislation, it just required a two third majority. If you read the pages for the Enabling Act and the Weimar Constitution, you'll see that the Enabling Act was passed under "strange" circumstances. Rules on quorum were amended, lawmakers blocked or intimidated. So, quasi-legal.

.now, I don't see where they get that, unless you interpret the phrase in Article 2 saying that the Presidency "The rights of the President remains undisturbed" ("bleiben unberuehrt") to mean that the Chancellorship and the Presidency could not be united in one person under the Enabling Act. It looks more like presidential powers can't be tampered with, not that one man can't hold both jobs.

From the Weimar Constitution page:

Less than a month after Adolf Hitler’s appointment as chancellor in 1933, the Reichstag Fire Decree invoked Article 48 of the Weimar Constitution, suspending several constitutional protections on civil rights. The articles affected were 114 (habeas corpus), 115 (inviolability of residence), 117 (correspondence privacy), 118 (freedom of expression /censorship), 123 (assembly), 124 (associations), and 153 (expropriation).The subsequent Enabling Act, passed by the Reichstag on March 23, 1933, stated that, in addition to the traditional method of the Reichstag passing legislation, the Reich government could also pass legislation. It further stated that the powers of the Reichstag,Reichsrat and Reich President were not affected. The normal legislative procedures outlined in Articles 68 to 77 of the constitution did not apply to legislation promulgated by the Reich government.
The Enabling Act was effectively a constitutional amendment because of the foregoing alterations to the normal legislative process. The act met the constitutional requirements (two-thirds of the Reichstag's members were present, and two-thirds of the members present voted in favor of the measure). The Act did not explicitly amend the Weimar Constitution, but there was explicit mention to the fact that the procedure sufficient for constitutional reform was followed. The constitution of 1919 was never formally repealed, but the Enabling Act meant that all its other provisions were a dead letter.
The Enabling Act itself was breached by Hitler on three occasions in 1934: Article 2 of the act stated that

'Laws enacted by the government of the Reich may deviate from the constitution as long as they do not affect the institutions of the Reichstag and the Reichsrat. The rights of the President remain undisturbed.'

However, on 30 January, the "Law for the Reconstruction of the Reich" transferred the powers of the Länder (states) to the Reich, rendering the Reichsrat obsolete. A month later, the Reichsrat itself was dissolved. President von Hindenburg died in August, and Hitler appropriated the president's powers for himself. However, in 1932 the constitution had been amended to make the president of the High Court of Justice, not the chancellor, acting president pending new elections. Nonetheless, the Enabling Act did not specify any recourse that could be taken if the chancellor violated Article 2, and no judicial challenge was ever mounted.

Basically, by 1938, Hitler was very much recognizable as Hitler.

The key here is that the PRC certainly went through a totalitarian phase, and is at least in an authoritarian phase today. My point is that all the heavy lifting of tyranny was done decades ago. Xi doesn't have to be blatant.

Sure, but that doesn't necessarily make him Hitler, either. Is there no middle ground?

-If someone could me Hitler, I don't think that would make me turn into Hitler.

You're being silly. The point was not to spare his feelings, it was that assuming the PRC is just like Nazi Germany helps create exactly the sorts of situations that might lead to something hideous. It's not like they've invaded Mongolia, or made every Tibetan wear a yellow mandala. Just regular run of the mill authoritarian shittiness so far. We'll see where it leads.

Not that people haven't tried...

Lie down with dogs, get up with fleas. You splash around in that pit of your own volition.

Déjà vu in Turkey as riots threaten Erdogan regime
Greece's disaster du jour: Privatization of natural gas firm collapses
Greece's citizens shocked when state broadcaster is shut down

I disagree with your turning dates for some of these countries. That being said, it will be interesting to see what happens between the two of them. What would Turkey do if Golden Dawn came to power in Greece, and started talking about annexing Cyprus and cracking down on Muslim immigrants? What would Greece do if Erdogan (or someone else) started playing this neo-Ottoman thing for real?

*** 13-Jun-13 World View -- Reform candidate Rouhani advances in Iran's presidential polls

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran seeks to avoid repeat of humiliating 2009 election
• Reform candidate Rouhani advances in Iran's presidential polls
• Prism revelation is already damaging national security
• Syrian rebels changing strategy after disastrous Qusair loss

****
**** Iran seeks to avoid repeat of humiliating 2009 election
****


Reform candidate Hassan Rouhani (www.rouhani.ir)

With voting in Iran's presidential election set to begin on Friday,
the leadership is seeking to avoid a repeat of the massive
anti-government protests and charges of election fraud that followed
the 2009 re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. The
hardliners, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have
proclaiming the importance of everyone voting:

<QUOTE>"Every vote that the people cast ... is primarily a
vote of confidence for the Islamic Republic and for our electoral
mechanism."<END QUOTE>

Everyone realizes that this campaign is something of a joke, because
the real humiliation for Iran was the massive bloody violence that
followed the election, when the police and the Revolutionary Guards
started torturing, mutilating and slaughtering peaceful protesters. In
fact, for over two years Iran has been the psychopathic Bashar
al-Assad conduct the same kind of campaign on steroids in Syria.

So nobody doubts that the Islamic Republic is a failure when it has to
kill, torture and mutilate peaceful protesters, and that the Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei is a fool for claiming otherwise. In fact, two reform
candidates from the 2009 election, Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi
Karroubi, are still under arrest. They are symbols of the massive
failure of the Islamic Republic.

Iran is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the
1960s-70s, when there were massive anti-government protests and some
police violence against them, though nowhere near the scale of the
violence in Iran. Like America in the 1960s, there is a "generation
gap" today in Iran, pitting the hardline survivors of the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution and the subsequent Iran/Iraq war versus the younger
generations that grew up after the war. These generational
confrontations usually end up with a climactic victory by the younger
generation since, after all, the old generation dies off. (In
America, the climactic victor was the resignation of President Richard
Nixon in 1974.)

The voting campaign presents a dilemma for younger voters in Iran, who
are torn between on the one hand protesting against leadership by
boycotting the vote, and on the other hand voting for the reform
candidate Hassan Rouhani, and hoping he'll win.

As I described in "23-May-13 World View -- Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation"
, Khamenei has already arranged to disqualify the
leading reformist candidates, but that strategy could conceivably
backfire, as now there's only one reformist candidate left. CS Monitor and Foreign Policy

****
**** Reform candidate Rouhani advances in Iran's presidential polls
****

On Friday, voters in Iran's presidential election will have a choice
of five hardline candidates, and only one who is considered "centrist"
or "reformist." It's a question just how reformist he is, since he's
a cleric who's close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But
he's become very popular with young Iranians, and he's particularly
critical of the economic policies of the last eight years.

All the other reformist candidates have been eliminated. Last month
Khamenei arranged to have former president Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei disqualified.
Then earlier this week another reformist candidate,
Mohammad Reza Aref, announced that he was withdrawing from the race,
in order to avoid drawing votes away from Rouhani.

So with all these other candidates eliminated, Rouhani's poll results
have surged, while all the hardline votes are split among the five
remaining candidates. Rouhani is still unlikely to win the election,
but victory by Rouhani would be a victory for the younger generation,
and a defeat for Khamenei. Al Monitor and BBC

****
**** Prism revelation is already damaging national security
****

The traitorous act of Edward Snowden in revealing the top secret Prism
program is already damaging national security. Jihadist and terrorist
web sites are prominently displaying the information exposed by
Snowden, and are instructing terrorists how to use alternate
communications channels that can't be trace by the NSA. Jihadists are
recommending that terrorists use Linux rather than Windows, and are
providing technical information on protecting jihadist information.
Previous revelations of top secrets include the admission of
responsibility for the Stuxnet virus that slows Iran's nuclear
program, and the Obama administration's bragging revelation of the
details of the death of Osama bin Laden. All of these revelations
have damaged America's security. Bill Gertz / Free Beacon

****
**** Syrian rebels changing strategy after disastrous Qusair loss
****

Last week's stunning victory by the Syrian army combined with
Hezbollah in Qusair is threatening to give the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad a victory in the civil war, now in its third
year. The regime's firepower was overwhelming, and the regime's
forces adopted a new technique: They used heavy weapons to level row
after row of building, essentially leveling the entire town, providing
no cover for the rebels. Thousands of rebel fighters and civilians
were killed in Qusair, and only a few hundred escaped, fleeing in
desperation. It's now clear that the rebels are close to defeat, and
will have to develop a new strategy. One activist is calling for
greater use of suicide bombings in Alawite neighborhoods, where the
civilians typically are strong supporters of al-Assad. "We should
take the battles to the heart of Alawite neighborhoods," he said.
Daily Star (Beirut)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Hassan Rouhani,
Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Edward Snowden, Prism,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Qusair

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

The Reichstag had the power to amend the Constitution just like ordinary legislation, it just required a two third majority. If you read the pages for the Enabling Act and the Weimar Constitution, you'll see that the Enabling Act was passed under "strange" circumstances. Rules on quorum were amended, lawmakers blocked or intimidated. So, quasi-legal...

-I don't think anyone's arguing that it was "strange", but I don't think they had a mechanism for disqualifying the Enabling Act based on that (I'm not sure we do, really. Probbaly the SCOTUS would have to rule that they had members had been illegally arrested, but I'm not sure that that would mean that everything done in the meantime would be a "do over." AS for the Germans?).

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... From the Weimar Constitution page...

...ah! I'd always assumed that Hitler's taking over the Presidency was rubber stamped by the Reichstag. It's strange that he didn't do it, considering how much effort he went to keep so much of the other stuff constitutional.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... Basically, by 1938, Hitler was very much recognizable as Hitler...

-No argument there. He was pretty recognizable before that, but because of the actions he took on his way to power.

On to Xi!

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... It's not like they've invaded Mongolia, or made every Tibetan wear a yellow mandala...

-Well they already invaded Tibet long ago. Goes to my point that inheriting decades of power avoids getting your hands dirty.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

... The point was not to spare his feelings, it was that assuming the PRC is just like Nazi Germany helps create exactly the sorts of situations that might lead to something hideous...

-OK. I'm not arguing that Xi hasn't proven himself one way or the other, but I don't think Mr. X is out of his mind to make the comparison, and I don't buy that pointing to Xi makes him more, rather than less likely to act badly.

No disagreements about the Weimar constitution or the advantages of inheriting an empire.

And I didn't see he was out of his mind, just that it was bit much.

This was an interesting and informative discussion. The only part
that I would strongly disagree with is the statement, "Basically, by
1938, Hitler was very much recognizable as Hitler." This recognition
is largely retrospective. In 1938, this view of Hitler was recognized
by only a very few -- like Churchill, who was ridiculed and ignored.
In my opinion, the comparison between Hitler in 1938 and Xi Jinping
today is entirely valid.

Here's a story about how British girls were still being sent to
finishing school in Berlin in 1938, because it was "the thing to do":

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-905617.html



"In the 1930s, many English families sent their daughters to schools
in Germany. Rachel Johnson, the sister of London Mayor Boris Johnson,
interviewed many of them in preparation for her new novel. Here, a
group of young women give the Nazi salute on board the Wilhelm
Gustloff in Tilbury in 1938."

*** 14-Jun-13 World View -- U.S. escalates Syria crisis with confirmation of chemical weapons

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. escalates Syria crisis with confirmation of chemical weapons
• Bill Clinton slams Barack Obama for Syria leadership failures
• Qusair battle turns Sunni Arab people and nations against Hezbollah
• Congressmen whine because Obamacare applies to them

****
**** U.S. escalates Syria crisis with confirmation of chemical weapons
****


Funeral for Hashem Salman, 28, who was who was shot and killed at a rally outside Beirut's Iranian Embassy Sunday while protesting Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian conflict. (Daily Star)

The White House issued a statement late on Thursday confirming that
the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has crossed a "red
line" with the use of chemical weapons on its own people, causing some
150 deaths:

<QUOTE>"Following a deliberative review, our intelligence
community assesses that the Assad regime has used chemical
weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against
the opposition multiple times in the last year. Our intelligence
community has high confidence in that assessment given multiple,
independent streams of information. The intelligence community
estimates that 100 to 150 people have died from detected chemical
weapons attacks in Syria to date; however, casualty data is likely
incomplete. While the lethality of these attacks make up only a
small portion of the catastrophic loss of life in Syria, which now
stands at more than 90,000 deaths, the use of chemical weapons
violates international norms and crosses clear red lines that have
existed within the international community for decades. We believe
that the Assad regime maintains control of these weapons. We have
no reliable, corroborated reporting to indicate that the
opposition in Syria has acquired or used chemical
weapons. ...

The President has been clear that the use of chemical weapons – or
the transfer of chemical weapons to terrorist groups – is a red
line for the United States, as there has long been an established
norm within the international community against the use of
chemical weapons. Our intelligence community now has a high
confidence assessment that chemical weapons have been used on a
small scale by the Assad regime in Syria. The President has said
that the use of chemical weapons would change his calculus, and it
has. ...

Put simply, the Assad regime should know that its actions have led
us to increase the scope and scale of assistance that we provide
to the opposition, including direct support to the SMC. These
efforts will increase going forward.

The United States and the international community have a number of
other legal, financial, diplomatic, and military responses
available. We are prepared for all contingencies, and we will make
decisions on our own timeline."<END QUOTE>

However, while this statement escalates the rhetoric, it avoids
talking about any specific action, presumably for the same reasons as
before -- that any aid given to the rebel groups could fall into the
hands of Jabhat al-Nusra or other al-Qaeda linked groups. The problem
is that President Obama has repeatedly used highly threatening
rhetoric, sometimes specifying "red lines," but has taken no action
when a red line is crossed except to move the red line. This has
subjected him to some ridicule in the Mideast. Now it appears to be
happening again, although Obama has promised to evaluate all options.
Guardian

****
**** Bill Clinton slams Barack Obama for Syria leadership failures
****

The harshest critic of president Barack Obama on lack of leadership in
Syria has been Senator John McCain. But now, former president Bill
Clinton has said that he agrees with McCain. At a press
event on Tuesday held jointly with McCain, Clinton criticized
Obama for allowing his decisions to be too strongly guided
by opinion polls:

“Some people say, 'Okay, see what a big mess it is? Stay out!' I
think that’s a big mistake. I agree with you [McCain] about this.
Sometimes it’s just best to get caught trying, as long as you
don’t overcommit — like, as long as you don’t make an improvident
commitment.

Nobody is asking for American soldiers in Syria. The only
question is now that the Russians, the Iranians and the Hezbollah
are in there head over heels, 90 miles to nothing, should we try
to do something to try to slow their gains and rebalance the power
so that these rebel groups have a decent chance, if they’re
supported by a majority of the people, to prevail? ...

[If you blame a lack of action because] there was a poll in the
morning paper that said 80 percent of you were against it
... you’d look like a total wuss. And you would be."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]

Suggesting that president Obama might look like a "total wuss" is
pretty strong language. Politico

****
**** Qusair battle turns Sunni Arab people and nations against Hezbollah
****

The White House justified its statement Thursday threatening action in
Syria because of chemical weapons, but that's really old news. It's
far more likely that the White House was pressured by last week's news
of the stunning victory by the al-Assad regime in Qusair, aided by
Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon. Analysts that I've heard
have expressed little doubt that Assad could not have won
that battle without help from Hezbollah's fighters, who have
been trained in street fighting by Iran.

Hezbollah's popularity surged among Sunni Muslim Arabs in the wake of
the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, at a time when
Sunni and Shia Muslims were largely united over the American military
in Iraq. However, all of that changed very rapidly in the last few
weeks, since Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave a fiery
speech promising to defeat Sunni Muslims in Syria, and then followed
up by supporting al-Assad's Shia-Alawite army in Qusair.

According one Saudi writer, the attitude of the Sunni Arab public has
become vitriolic:

<QUOTE>"They have exposed a malicious racist spirit that
places its pains above all others’ pain. They are moved by the
desire of blind vengeance. They know no mercy, tolerance or
justice. They consider that the ones responsible for all these
pains are everyone who belongs to the sect of the tyrant. This is
how crimes were attributed to people who have nothing to do with
the fighting in the Syria. They were only attributed to them
because they happen to belong to the same sect. ...

At first, I thought they were bats of darkness on Twitter. I
thought they were masked people who enjoy insulting, criticizing
and accusing others of infidelity on Twitter because they know no
one can pursue them or hold them accountable. But I later realized
that the situation is far more dangerous and expanded than that. A
university scholar who teaches in a prominent university in our
country wrote 'we must remind our children that the infidel Shiite
and Alawites are the ones who [committed crimes] against our
people in Qusair. I will spit in the face of whoever preaches to
me about tolerance.' A Saudi reminded him of humanitarian,
cultural, national and religious references that unite people and
described the former’s stance as reactionary and primitive. The
university teacher responded saying: 'Welcome to reactionism and
primitiveness that will purge our country of your
impurity.'"<END QUOTE>

The Sunni Arab Muslim vitriol at Hezbollah is being translated
into threats by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of Sunni
Arab nations.

<QUOTE>"The GCC strongly condemns Hezbollah’s blatant
intervention in the crisis in Syria which caused the death of
civilians. ...

Hezbollah’s illegal intervention and the horrific practices of its
militias in the region will harm its interests in GCC countries.
The GCC council decided to take measures against Hezbollah
loyalists' residencies as well as their financial and trade
transactions."<END QUOTE>

The exact sanctions were not described, but this kind of statement
directed against Hezbollah would have been unthinkable a few
weeks ago.

For years I've been writing that the Mideast is heading to a new war
between Sunni and Shia Muslims, between Israelis and Arabs, refighting
the genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and
the creation of the state of Israel. It's now a possibility that this
war will be an expansion of the war in Syria, triggered by the
invasion of Hezbollah militias into Syria. Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Arabiya (Dubai)

****
**** Congressmen whine because Obamacare applies to them
****

This is really hilarious. Republicans and Democrats in Congress, and
their aides, have suddenly discovered that the Obamacare law, which
nobody read before it was passed, actually applies to them. They're
whining and panicking because their health insurance costs will
skyrocket, and the resulting policies won't be as good. It couldn't
happen to a nicer bunch of people. Politico

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Hashem Salman, Hezbollah, Lebanon,
Bashar al-Assad, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda,
John McCain, Bill Clinton, Qusair, Israel,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Obamacare

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*** 15-Jun-13 World View -- Hezbollah promises to keep fighting for Assad in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hezbollah promises to keep fighting for Assad in Syria
• U.S. plan to send small arms to Syria receives mixed reviews
• European outrage after Greece shuts down public broadcasting

****
**** Hezbollah promises to keep fighting for Assad in Syria
****


Nasrallah gives televised speech on Friday (Al-Jazeera)

As we've been reporting, the recent announcement by Hezbollah leader
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and his subsequent actions in providing
thousands of fighters to help Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army, has
resulted in a harsh Sunni/Shia divide throughout the Mideast, with
Arab Sunni Muslims vitriolically condemning and threatening all Shias,
especially after the stunning al-Assad/Hezbollah victory in Qusair.
Nasrallah continued to pour gasoline onto the flames on Friday in a
new televised speech where he promised to continue his invasion of
Syria on behalf of al-Assad:

<QUOTE> Before Qusair is the same as after Qusair. Nothing
has changed.

Isn't the conspiracy the same?... Have the facts changed? On the
contrary, the other side is stirring up this conflict even more.
Where we need to be, we will be. Where we began to assume our
responsibilities, we will continue to assume our responsibilities.

To defeat this very, very dangerous conspiracy (against Syria) we
will bear any sacrifices and all the consequences."<END QUOTE>

Fresh from its victory in Qusair, the al-Assad regime is now
attempting a similar victory in Aleppo. A victory there may deal a
fatal blow to the opposition rebels. AFP and Al-Jazeera

****
**** U.S. plan to send small arms to Syria receives mixed reviews
****

On Friday, Obama administration officials revealed some
details about the plan to support rebels in Syria, following
Thursday's statement confirming that the regime of
president Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons, including
sarin gas, against his own people. The CIA will
send small arms, ammunition and potentially anti-tank weapons to
Syria's rebels. Setting up a no-fly zone, or any "boots on
the ground" are off the table.

Republican Senator John McCain, who has been extremely
critical of President Obama's lack of leadership in Syria,
called the new proposal "disgraceful":

<QUOTE>"For us to sit by, and watch these people being
massacred, raped, tortured in the most terrible fashion,
meanwhile, the Russians are all in, Hezbollah is all in, and we’re
talking about giving them more light weapons? It’s
insane."<END QUOTE>

On the other hand, the Russians are critical of any action by the
Obama administration at all. According to Aleksey Pushkov, the head
of the Duma’s Foreign Affairs Committee:

<QUOTE>"The data about Assad’s use of chemical weapons is
fabricated by the same facility that made up the lies about Saddam
Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. Obama is walking George
W. Bush’s path.

Now they are arming the rebels but then they will come to some
form of direct military involvement. We cannot exclude the
possibility of cruise missile strikes and if this measure brings
no result – of direct military intervention."<END QUOTE>

The Russians are warning that the U.S. action may start an arms race
in the region, which is laughable, because the Russians have already
started an arms race by supplying the al-Assad regime with heavy
weapons for many months. The U.S. administration is reluctant to give
the opposition heavy weapons, out of fear that they'll fall into the
hands of al-Qaeda linked forces, such as Jabhat al-Nusra. CNN and
Politico and Russia Today

****
**** European outrage after Greece shuts down public broadcasting
****

The Europeans have been demanding that Greece, in return for its
bailout payments, must lay off 4,000 civil service employees this
year, and 11,000 more in 2014. So you'd think that the Europeans
would be happy when Greece's prime minister, Antonis Samaras,
announced on Tuesday that he would shut down public broadcaster ERT
and dismiss some 2,700 employees. The decision isn't as radical as it
sounds, since there are plenty of private broadcasters in Greece, and
Samaras said that soon there would a smaller, leaner public
broadcasting service.

Well, the Europeans were not happy with this decision, because it
apparently affects one of their sacred cows. There have been
widespread expressions of outrage that Samaras closed down the ERT.
The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) called the action
"anti-democratic" and "unprofessional." So the European message to
Greece is: "Lay off 4,000 civil service employees this year, but not
anyone that we want to protect." That's why it's hard to lay off any
civil service employees.

The outrage, both inside and outside of Greece, has become so great
that the stability of the coalition government is threatened, with
coalition partners demanding that ERT be reopened immediately.
Samaras is attempting to negotiate a compromise that would keep ERT
closed down, but that would speed up the creation of a new
broadcaster, to have the acronym NERIT. BBC and
Kathimerini

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Qusair, Aleppo,
John McCain, Russia, Aleksey Pushkov, Jabhat al-Nusra,
Europe, Greece, Antonis Samaras, ERT, NERIT,
European Broadcasting Union, EBU

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*** 16-Jun-13 World View -- Iran's elections won by 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran's elections won by 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani
• Iran's nuclear development policy unlikely to change
• Egypt cuts all diplomatic relations with Syria

****
**** Iran's elections won by 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani
****


Female supporter holding up picture of Rouhani on Saturday. Her loose hairscarf is an act of rebellion against the hardliners. (BBC)

Iran's Interior Ministry has announced that Friday's election was won
by the Hassan Rouhani, with 52.49% of the votes. Rouhani will replace
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of Iran in early August. There were
several major surprises:

• Rouhani was far behind in the polls just a few days ago. His
  victory resulted from a last minute surge. The surge is attributed to
  the fact that he is the only "moderate" among the six candidates who
  were running, with the other five considered to be hardliners. Some
  analysts believe that many people were voting AGAINST the hardliners,
  rather than FOR Rouhani.
  
• No second round will be necessary. There were six candidates in
  the race, and it was expected that no candidate would get a majority,
  requiring a runoff election next week between the top two. That
  Rouhani got a majority in the first round is a big surprise.
  
• The election of the "moderate" Rouhani appears to be a slap in the
  face to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is known to have
  favored the hardline candidates, particularly Saeed Jalili. But
  Khamenei is anxious to avoid discrediting the Islamic Republic again,
  as happened in 2009, so he has congratulated Rouhani on his victory,
  and called it a victory for the Republic.
  
• There have been no reports of electoral fraud or rigging. The
  2009 election was internationally humiliating for Iran because of
  widespread charges of rigging by Khamenei.
  
• There have been no reports of large scale anti-government
  demonstrations and subsequence violence by Iranian police, such as
  occurred after the 2009 elections. To the contrary, there have been
  open celebrations in Tehran of Rouhani's victory.

On the other hand, the election can hardly be called open and fair.
The regime still has several moderate politicians under arrest since
2009, and in recent days the regime has been openly threatening
violence against the families of BBC reporters who are simply
reporting on the election. Reformist newspapers have been shut down,
and journalists have been arrested. It's quite likely that there
would be widespread protests if a hardliner had won. Fars (Tehran) and Bloomberg

****
**** Iran's nuclear development policy unlikely to change
****

Hassan Rouhani, 64, lived through the Great Islamic Revolution of
1979, and is a confidant of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so it's not clear
how "moderate" he's going to be. It's quite likely that national and
international expectations of him will exceed what he's able to
deliver.

Rouhani's campaign bears some similarity to Barack Obama's 2008
campaign as the "hope and change" candidate, blaming everything on the
previous administration. Even though the policies of Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad were very conservative, and not far from the policies of
the Supreme Leader, Rouhani was able to walk a tight line by directing
all his criticism at Ahmadinejad rather than Khamenei.

Rouhani's campaign promises were:

• Uphold justice and civil rights. Many Iranians are furious
  the peaceful protesters have been tortured, mutilated, jailed and
  killed. Rouhani has cast himself as a successor to the 2009 Green
  movement.
  
• Continue the nuclear program, by reaching "national consensus and
  rapprochement and understanding on an international level. This can
  only happen through dialogue." This is the mirror image of Obama's
  2008 promise to resolve issues with North Korea and Iran through
  dialog and understanding. Rouhani's promise was extremely popular
  because, although Iran's population is overwhelmingly in favor of
  continuing nuclear development, they hate being compared to
  North Korea, and want to find a way to continue without being
  international pariahs. Whether Rouhani can succeed at
  fulfilling this promise any better than Obama could remains
  to be seen.
  
• End international sanctions targeting Iran, once again
  through dialog. Many Iranians blame Ahmadinejad for causing
  the international furor that led to sanctions against Iran
  that have badly damaged the economy.
  
• Create economic prosperity. Every politician promises
  this.
  
• Act as mediator to resolve the conflict in Syria. This is
  definitely not going to happen. The Mideast is getting closer to a
  major sectarian Sunni versus Shia conflict, and Iran will be a
  belligerent, not a mediator.

Iran is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the
1960s-70s, when there was a "generation gap," resulting in enormous
political turmoil and some violence.

Rouhani won a landslide victory, and now has mandate for change. But
the real power in Iran lies with the Supreme Leader and the hardline
Guardian Council. So the most likely result of Friday's election is
that when the euphoria wears off, the bitter political conflicts will
return. BBC and Reuters

****
**** Egypt cuts all diplomatic relations with Syria
****


Mohamed Morsi speaking in Cairo on Saturday (Al-Ahram)

Egypt's President Mohamed Morsi announced on Saturday the end of all
diplomatic ties with the Syrian regime led by Bashar Al-Asaad, and
that "the Egyptian people and army are supporting the Syrian
uprising."

<QUOTE>"We have decided to close down the Syrian embassy in
Cairo. The Egyptian envoy in Damascus will also be withdrawn.

"The people of Egypt and its army will not leave Syrians until
their rights are granted and a new elected leadership is
chosen. ...

Hezbollah must leave Syria; there is no place for Hezbollah in
Syria. The Egyptian people have stood by the Lebanese people and
Hezbollah against the [Israeli] attack in 2006, and today we stand
against Hezbollah for Syria."<END QUOTE>

Morsi also urged the West to implement a no-fly zone over Syria,
something that the Obama administration has already rejected.

This is a dramatic about-face for Egypt, since Morsi had hoped to
serve as a mediator to end the Syrian conflict, as he had done in last
year's Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, the invasion
of Syria by Hezbollah appears to have been the trigger that forced him
to choose sides against the al-Assad regime.

Hezbollah's invasion of Syria on the side of the al-Assad regime is a
major turning point in the Mideast. As we've been reporting, the
attitudes of Sunnis and Shias towards each other is becoming
increasingly vitriolic throughout the region. It would take very
little at this point to start a local fight that could spiral out of
control and spread throughout the region. Al Ahram (Cairo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Hassan Rouhani,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Saeed Jalili,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Syria, Bashar al-Assad

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*** 17-Jun-13 World View -- Report: Iran sending 4,000 troops to aid Assad in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sunni Islamist terrorists conduct another horrific attack in Pakistan
• Report: Iran sending 4,000 troops to aid Assad in Syria
• U.S. will put F-16s and Patriot missiles into Jordan
• Bank Of America Lied To Homeowners And Encouraged Foreclosures

****
**** Sunni Islamist terrorists conduct another horrific attack in Pakistan
****


Bombed out bus next to women's university campus sign on Saturday (Dawn)

The al-Qaeda linked terror group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), an offshoot
of the Pakistan Taliban, is claiming responsibility for a horrific
double suicide attack in Quetta on Saturday. A female suicide bomber
was able to sneak onto a school bus carrying female college students.
After everyone was seated, she blew herself up, killing 14. The
survivors were transported to a hospital, and there another suicide
bomber blew himself up, causing maximum carnage. LeJ militants then
launched a gunfight at the hospital, killing another 11, until they
were subdued. Similar kinds of attacks in the past have specifically
targeted the Shia Muslim ethnic Hazaras. According to an LeJ spokesman
on Sunday:

<QUOTE>"The suicide attack on the bus was carried out by one
of our sisters. She boarded the student bus and blew herself up.
Then we carried out a second suicide attack at the hospital and
our fighters killed several people. We did this because security
forces killed our fighters and their wives in
Kharotabad."<END QUOTE>

This is a lie by the LeJ spokesman, since LeJ has carried out many
similar attacks in the past, and has previously issued a statement
that said, "Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this impure
sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every city,
every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan."

A web site reader posted the following in the Generational Dynamics forum:

<QUOTE>"Having been in Afghanistan for a year and dealing
with the indigenous population is not reported in the media that
in the regional life and the local culture is very hierarchical
unlike in the North America/Western Europe zone. The Hazara is on
the bottom of the tribal hierarchy because they are nomadic goat
and sheepherders. They rent out their services to the highest
“bidder”. Since they have no “land” or tribal claim, they are like
the old cattlemen of the American west. Now many refugees are
moving back to Afghanistan from Pakistan and trying to reclaim
villages that they left one or two generations ago when the
Russian or Taliban moved in and guess who is grazing their sheep
on “their” land? Also, the borders are basically non-existent. The
Af/Pak border is a line on the map drawn by Lord Durand and is a
border control/tax collection station on the A75 between Spin
Buldak, Af and Quetta-Chapman/Pakistan. The Hazara walk over the
border with their sheep all the time. The more industrial of the
Hazara have settled in Quetta and scattered all over Balochistan,
and guess who sees the Hazara as competitors for jobs and other
resources? The local Baloch ethnic/tribe group. Last, there is
hardly any intermingling or marriage between the local groups,
just old antagonisms from centuries ago. Remember, in that area
where the Hazara live, memories and feuds go back generations and
centuries."<END QUOTE>

Pakistan's new prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, has promised to end these
terrorist attack by means of negotiated peace talks with
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP - the Pakistan Taliban). Just as peace
negotiations have no chance in Syria, they have no chance with the TTP
or LeJ, either. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** Report: Iran sending 4,000 troops to aid Assad in Syria
****

According to a news report, Iran will send 4,000 Iranian Revolutionary
Guard soldiers to Syria to support the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad. The introduction of Hezbollah's troops into Syria
has already had several serious consequences in the Mideast -- Egypt's
decision to cut all diplomatic ties with Syria, and the Obama
administration's announcement that it will supply small arms to
Syria's rebels. The introduction of 4,000 Iranian troops, if true,
will raise the Sunni versus Shia vitriol in the region to a new high.
For years, Generational Dynamics has been predicting a new genocidal
Mideast war, re-fighting the war between Jews and Arabs that followed
the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and creation of the state of
Israel, and now events seem to be gathering steam for a Sunni versus
Shia war that will engulf the entire region, and pull in other
nations, including the United States. Independent (London)

****
**** U.S. will put F-16s and Patriot missiles into Jordan
****

The United States said on Saturday it will keep Patriot missiles and
F-16 jet fighters in Jordan after joint military exercises end next
week. According to the State Department:

<QUOTE>"The secretary [John Kerry] reaffirmed that the United
States continues to work aggressively for a political solution
with the goal of a second Geneva meeting, but that the use of
chemical weapons and increasing involvement of Hezbollah
demonstrates the regime's lack of commitment to negotiations and
threatens to put a political settlement out of
reach."<END QUOTE>

This appears to be one more consequence of Hezbollah's invasion of
Syria by troops fighting in support of Bashar al-Assad's army.
Reuters

****
**** Bank Of America Lied To Homeowners And Encouraged Foreclosures
****

The government created the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP)
in 2009 in response to the foreclosure epidemic and to encourage banks
to give homeowners loan modifications, allowing some borrowers to stay
in their homes. This followed a scandal when it was revealed that
bank employees "robo signed" documents without verifying them as is
required by law. Now, six former Bank of America employees are
accusing the bank of purposely sabotaging the HAMP program, forcing
homeowners unnecessarily into foreclosure instead of modifying the
loans, and then lying both the homeowner and the government about what
they were doing.

What's remarkable about this story is that it's so unremarkable.
We're living in a time when an entire generation of bankers purposely
created tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent synthetic
mortgage-backed securities, and then sold them as AAA risk free.
We're living at a time when bankers manipulated Libor for their own
profit, when CNBC analysts lie every day about stock valuations, and
when the White House lies every day about having used the IRS to
target political enemies. And it's worth pointing out again: The
Obama justice department adamantly refuses to investigate and charge
bankers who participated in the fraud that caused the financial
crisis, or who perpetrated the IRS targeting. So, Bank of America
employees defrauding homeowners and lying to the government is nothing
special. It's just what happens every day these days. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Quetta, Hazaras,
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ,
Nawaz Sharif, Afghanistan,
Iran, Syria, Revolutionary Guards, Egypt,
Jordan, Patriot Missiles, F-16, Bashar al-Assad,
Home Affordable Modification Program, HAMP,
Bank of America, CNBC, IRS

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*** 18-Jun-13 World View -- 80,000 Hezbollah-trained Syrian soldiers ready to retake Aleppo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 80,000 Hezbollah-trained Syrian soldiers ready to retake Aleppo
• Hamas rebukes its former ally, Hezbollah, over Syria
• Israel toughens law against 'Price Tag' attacks

****
**** 80,000 Hezbollah-trained Syrian soldiers ready to retake Aleppo
****


Kuwaiti protesters burn a picture of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (AFP)

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's regime's army, with some 80,000
military forces trained by Hezbollah, is preparing to launch a massive
ground offensive to recapture the city of Aleppo. Hezbollah and the
regime army cooperated two weeks ago in the stunning recapture of
Qusair, which was accomplished by flattening the entire city with
heavy weapons, killing thousands of civilians, combined with street to
street fighting by Hezbollah militants. Hezbollah claims that their
fighters will not be participating in the battle of Aleppo, but that
it will be "supervising and providing military tactical advice on how
to coordinate and conduct the offensive." The recapture of Aleppo
will mark a significant turning point in the Syrian war, and might
signal that the end of the war is near, with a significant victory for
al-Assad, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia, and significant humiliation for
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United States. Al-Arabiya (Dubai)

****
**** Hamas rebukes its former ally, Hezbollah, over Syria
****

The fallout from Hezbollah's active participation in the Syrian war on
the side of president Bashar al-Assad continues to grow. Most Mideast
Muslims, both Sunni and Shia, used to love (Shia) Hezbollah because of
its leadership in the "resistance" to Israel. But Hezbollah has
opened a continually growing Shia-Alawite versus Sunni fault that's
becoming increasingly vitriolic each day. Thus, the official Saudi
Press Agency published a statement calling Hezbollah a "loathsome,
sectarian" group. And last week, Egypt did an about-face and severed
all diplomatic relations with Syria, and the Arab nations in the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) voted to impose sanctions against Hezbollah.
On Monday, Hamas, which used to be a close ally with Hezbollah and
even had its headquarters in Damascus, Syria's capital city, is now
slamming Hezbollah, and demanding that it withdraw from Syria.
Sectarian tensions are growing across the Mideast, and the coming
battle of Aleppo, and an expected Shia-Alawite victory, will only
exacerbate them further. The National (UAE) and Al-Arabiya and Bloomberg

****
**** Israel toughens law against 'Price Tag' attacks
****

I've reported on several occasions about so-call "price tag" attacks
by Jewish settlers on Palestinians in the West Bank. The phrase
"price tag" is frequently used by far-right Israeli settlers to denote
revenge attacks against Palestinians or IDF soldiers in response to
moves by the Israeli government to evacuate illegal West Bank
outposts, or as retribution for attacks by Palestinians. The attacks
have usually been against mosques or other property, and sometimes
even Christian property, but they've occasionally crossed the line
into violence against Palestinians. However, no one has ever been
prosecuted for "price tag" attacks. Israel's cabinet on Sunday issued
a statement saying that "Price Tag" organizations will now be
designated as "illicit organizations," which will allow the
authorities to seize properties and bank accounts belonging to group
members, and to take more severe measures against them in courts.
However, Israel stopped short of designating them as "terrorist
organizations." Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified this
decision by saying that this Jewish group cannot be compared with
"terror organizations" such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, because that
also reflect badly on Israel Middle East Monitor and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah,
Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Hamas, Egypt,
Israel, Price Tag, Benjamin Netanyahu

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*** 19-Jun-13 World View -- Taliban prepare for return of 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. announces direct talks with Afghan Taliban to end war
• Taliban prepares for return of 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan'
• U.S. dropped some pre-conditions for talks with Taliban
• Afghan insurgents kill U.S. soldiers at Bagram base

****
**** U.S. announces direct talks with Afghan Taliban to end war
****


Taliban press conference in Doha on Tuesday (Reuters)

The White House announced Tuesday that U.S. representatives will open
direct talks with Taliban representatives within the next few days,
aimed at finding a political solution to the Afghan war. At the same
time, Taliban representatives opened up a Taliban office in Doha,
Qatar, where the talks with the U.S. will take place. According
to a U.S. official:

<QUOTE>"I think the US will have its first formal meeting
with the Taliban, and the first meeting with the Taliban for
several years, in a couple of days in Doha.

I would expect that to be followed up within days by a meeting
between the Taliban and the High Peace Council, which is the
structure that President [Hamid] Karzai has set up for talks of
this nature. ...

We'll tell them what we want to talk about and they'll tell us
what they want to talk about and we'll both adjourn and consult on
next steps, and then have another meeting in a week or two
later."<END QUOTE>

U.S. officials said that this is "an important first step," with no
guarantee of success. As everyone knows, the U.S. is committed to
withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan in 2014. VOA and AFP

****
**** Taliban prepares for return of 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan'
****

As U.S. officials were announcing the start of talks with the Taliban,
the Taliban themselves were giving a press conference in Doha, Qatar,
at the "Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan."
This was the name of the country Afghanistan when the Taliban
ruled it, prior to September 11, 2001. According to the
Taliban announcement:

<QUOTE>"It is well known to all that the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan has been waging jihad and striving to put an end to
the occupation and form an independent Islamic system. To reach
this goal, it has utilized every lawful means.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan simultaneously follows both
military and political options and aims which are limited to
Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate neither wants to pose harms to
other countries from its soil nor will allow anyone to pose a
threat to the security of countries from the soil of Afghanistan.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan wants good relations with all
countries of the world, including the neighboring countries on
the basis of mutual respect and, while desiring security at the
country level, the Islamic Emirate wants security and justice at
the world level.

Of course, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers its
religious and national duty to gain independence from the
occupation and, for that purpose, has utilized every legitimate
way and will utilize it in future too."<END QUOTE>

The Taliban said that there were five main reasons why they deemed
necessary to open an office in Qatar:

• First: To reach understanding and initiate talks with
  countries of the world for the purpose of improving relations with
  them.
  
• Second: To support a political and peaceful solution which
  includes end of occupation of Afghanistan and establishment of an
  independent Islamic system and true security, which the nation wants
  and aspires.
  
• Third: To hold meetings with Afghans as time may demand.
  
• Fourth: To initiate contact with the United Nations, as well as
  with international, regional and non-governmental organizations.
  
• Fifth: To put political statements at the disposal of media
  regarding current political developments.

Gulf Times (Doha)

****
**** U.S. dropped some pre-conditions for talks with Taliban
****

As the 2014 withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan approaches,
the U.S. has been forced to drop some previously announced
pre-conditions for peace talks with the Afghan Taliban.

The Taliban made the following commitments:

• They would "support" an Afghan peace process.
  
• They would oppose the use of Afghan soil to threaten
  other countries.

The last is an allusion to Osama bin Laden's use of Afghan soil
to launch the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.
However, recent attempted attacks on Europe and America have
been launched from AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) in
northern Africa and AQAP (Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula)
in Yemen.

The U.S. has dropped some other pre-conditions for talks:

• The Taliban will not forego suicide further
  suicide attacks or other violence in Afghanistan, as it's
  pursuing the political process.
  
• The Taliban will not sever links with al-Qaeda.
  
• The Taliban will not accept Afghanistan's constitution and,
  in particular, will not agree to protections for women and
  minorities.

The Taliban are expected to demand that all foreign troops be pulled
out of Afghanistan in 2014, and that the U.S. not be permitted to
leave behind a small force. Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** Afghan insurgents kill U.S. soldiers at Bagram base
****

Several hours after the Taliban were announcing peace talks with the
United States, insurgents killed four U.S. soldiers in an attack on
Bagram Air Force Base near Kabul in Afghanistan. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,
Taliban, Doha, Qatar, Hamid Karzai, Osama bin Laden,
Bagram Air Base

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*** 20-Jun-13 World View -- Afghan peace talks collapse day after they're announced

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Afghan peace talks collapse day after they're announced
• Prisoner exchange driving the Afghan 'peace talks'
• IKEA tests a new refugee shelter to replace the tent

****
**** Afghan peace talks collapse day after they're announced
****


Hamid Karzai on Tuesday(AP)

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan on Wednesday threatened to
boycott the peace talks with the Taliban that the United States
announced just one day earlier. (See "19-Jun-13 World View -- Taliban prepare for return of 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan'"
)

Karzai is complaining that the United States betrayed him, by
allowing the Taliban to open an office in Doha, Qatar, and talk
about the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," which was the name
of the country when the Taliban ruled it prior to 9/11/01. The
Taliban press conference portrayed the Taliban as the official
government of Afghanistan, leaving Karzai's government out in
the cold. So Karzai said that the peace talks had to
be "Afghan-led," presumably referring to his own government:

<QUOTE>"The latest developments show that foreign hands are
behind the Taliban’s Qatar office and, unless they are purely
Afghan-led, the High Peace Council will not participate in talks.
The opening of Taliban office in Qatar, the way it was opened and
messages it contained, contradicts the guarantees given by the US
to Afghanistan."<END QUOTE>

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry rushed to talk to Karzai,
to try to convince him to change his mind. At the end of
the day, Wednesday, nothing had been resolved.

As I've written dozens of times in the last few years, there is no
chance of a "peace process" in Afghanistan. The easiest way to see
that is a comparison with Iraq, where President George Bush's "surge"
was a factor in the successful peace treaty that allowed the U.S. to
withdraw. Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war,
climaxing in 1988 -- an EXTERNAL war, where the Iraqis, Sunnis and
Shias alike, united to fight the Iranians. But Afghanistan's last
crisis war was the genocidal civil war of 1992-96 -- an INTERNAL war,
pitting the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan against the the Northern
Alliance, an alliance of Tajiks and Hazaras in northern Afghanistan.
Furthermore, the Taliban are Sunni Islamist Pashtuns, occupy a large
region in Afghanistan, through the tribal area, and deep into
northwestern Pakistan, which is in a generational Crisis era. These
are major differences that make an Afghanistan peace process
impossible, and the whole attempt to negotiate peace with the Taliban
a farce. AFP

****
**** Prisoner exchange driving the Afghan 'peace talks'
****

Since the peace process negotiation with the Taliban is a farce, and
most people involved know it, one may wonder what's motivating the
people on both sides. According to several analysts I've heard, the
answer is that both the U.S. and the Taliban want a prisoner exchange.
The U.S. would like to get back Bowe Bergdahl, the last remaining
prisoner of war. The Taliban would like to get a number of Taliban
fighters currently imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay. Time

****
**** IKEA tests a new refugee shelter to replace the tent
****


IKEA's Refugee Housing Unit

With about 3.5 million refugees worldwide living in tents, IKEA is
about to test a new Refugee Housing Unit that will give refugees
privacy, electricity, and protection from the weather that they've
never had with tents. Each of the IKEA shelters is designed to house
one family. The shelters employ technologies to keep the interior cool
by day and warm at night; a solar panel on each provides electricity.
In a joint project with the United Nations, the shelters will be
tested in the next few months in Ethiopia, Iraq and Lebanon. CS Monitor


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai,
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Taliban, John Kerry,
Doha, Qatar, Iraq, Bowe Bergdahl, Guantanamo Bay,
IKEA, Refugee Housing Unit, Ethiopia, Lebanon

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*** 21-Jun-13 World View -- Stock share prices fall sharply in global rout

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Afghanistan 'peace process' continues in limbo
• Russia and China angered by U.S. State Dept. child trafficking report
• Stock share prices fall sharply in global rout
• Bonds and gold hammered along with stocks

****
**** Afghanistan 'peace process' continues in limbo
****


Taliban Flag - Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

A meeting between U.S. officials and representatives of the Afghan
Taliban had been expected on Thursday in Doha, Qatar, but the meeting
has been postponed because the Taliban had portrayed themselves as the
government of Afghanistan, thus angering Afghan president Hamid
Karzai. The Taliban had been offered the office building in Doha by
Qatari officials, but the Taliban hoisted a Taliban flag above the
building, and attacked a name plate calling it the "Political Office
of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." Qatari officials demanded
that the Taliban remove the name plate and the flag, but apparently
all they did is move the name plate indoors, and move the flag to a
shorter flagpole.

If talks ever begin, the first order of business will probably be a
prisoner swap -- American prisoner of war Bowe Bergdahl in exchange
for a number of Taliban fighters current imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay.
Apparently the Taliban are very anxious to start "peace" talks so that
they can get their fighters back, presumably to fight another day
against U.S. forces. The Taliban are a terrorist group, and the
U.S. never negotiates with terrorists, so it will be interesting to
see how this works out. Reuters

****
**** Russia and China angered by U.S. State Dept. child trafficking report
****

The US Department of State released its annual report on human
trafficking, and Russia and China reacted angrily after being
downgraded to Tier 3, which refers to "Countries whose governments do
not fully comply with the minimum standards and are not making
significant efforts to do so."

Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the report used "unacceptable
methodology":

<QUOTE>"The very idea of raising this issue causes
indignation. ... In fighting organized crime, including countering
trafficking, Russian authorities will never follow instructions
worked out in another country, let alone fulfill conditions
presented nearly in the form of an ultimatum."<END QUOTE>

China's Foreign Ministry said,

<QUOTE>"We believe that the US side should take an objective
and impartial view of China's efforts and stop making unilateral
or arbitrary judgments of China."<END QUOTE>

In the case of China, the report said that trafficking was
"pronounced" among China's internal migrant population, and that the
country's one-child policy had produced more boys than girls, fuelling
demand for prostitution and foreign brides. U.S. State Department and BBC

****
**** Stock share prices fall sharply in global rout
****

Wall Street stock prices fell 2.5% on Thursday, the most
in 19 months. Stock prices in general around the world
lost 3.4% on Thursday.

The trigger was a statement by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke
that the Fed my start reducing bond purchases (i.e., "printing money")
later this year. The Fed has been pouring $85 billion per month of
quantitative easing into the markets, and many people believe that
this money has mostly made its way into the stock markets, pushing up
stock prices to bubble levels. For example, last month we described
how the investment bank
Interactive Brokers allows wealthy people to borrow $1 million at 1.3%
to invest in the stock market, ostensibly for yields above 5%. This
shows how new debt and leverage has been used to push up stock market
prices.

What Ben Bernanke did was to merely say that the $85 billion per month
of quantitative easing would gradually be reduced, possibly starting
in the fall. Many investors have been counting on this money so that
could keep borrowing and add to their debt, and hope to use the
borrowed money by investing in the stock market bubble.

So what always happens is that eventually the bubble starts to
collapse, and investors suddenly have to start paying back the money
they borrowed. This forces them to sell other stocks, pushing stock
prices down even further, in a "vicious cycle."

It's impossible to predict when the current bubble will deflate, but
it's possible that it's deflating right now. Stocks are enormously
overpriced by historical standards. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index on Friday
morning was 18.28, which is astronomically high by historical
standards. We can't predict when the stock market crash will occur,
but we can say with certainty that it's coming, and when it does, the
S&P 500 Price/Earnings index will fall from its current 18.28 down at
least as far as to 6, which is where it was in 1982. When that
happens, the Dow Industrials index will fall to 3500 or lower. If the
pattern of the 1929 crash is followed, and that's quite possible, then
the Dow Industrials will fall to 1400.

However, I want to repeat and emphasize that it's impossible to
predict when this will happen. It's still possible that Fed chairman
Ben Bernanke will reverse himself, and promise more and more and more
and more quantitative easing into the future, and that could push
stocks up to even higher bubble levels, and postpone the inevitable
crisis a while longer. Bloomberg

****
**** Bonds and gold hammered along with stocks
****

The common wisdom from mainstream economists is that when stocks go
down, then bonds and gold go up, since investors take their money out
of stocks and put it into bonds and stocks. However, mainstream
economists are getting that one wrong as well. However, bonds around
the world fell 1-2%, while price of gold fell 7%, silver fell 7%, and
crude oil fell 4%.

All these prices fell for the same reason that stocks fell --
investors had to pay off their debt by selling any assets they had.

At the same time, the value of the dollar rose sharply against other
currencies, continuing the deflationary trend that we've been
discussing for ten years. USA Today and Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar,
Bowe Bergdahl, Guantanamo, Russia, China,
U.S. State Department, human trafficking,
Wall Street, S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio,
Ben Bernanke, quantitative easing, Federal Reserve,
bonds, gold, silver

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*** 22-Jun-13 World View -- China and Philippines close to new confrontation in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S./Philippine joint naval exercises will challenge China's claims
• China military strategy on trend to seize Ayungin from Philippines
• Britain ends last line of defense against an interstellar alien invasion

****
**** U.S./Philippine joint naval exercises will challenge China's claims
****


BRP Sierra Madre grounded in Ayungin Shoal (Chiangrai Times)

U.S. and Philippine warships will conduct a joint naval exercise near
islands in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to the
Philippines but over which are claimed by China as having
"indisputable sovereignty." Six US and Philippine warships and 1,000
American and Filipino sailors and servicemen will take part in a joint
naval exercise in Ayungin Shoal (called Renai Reef by the Chinese)
from June 27 to July 2. The exercises will include fire drills,
maritime interdiction, ship boarding and seizure, as well as aerial
surveillance. The exercises were scheduled in 2010.

Tensions have been rising because of a Philippine warship, the BRP
Sierra Madre, that was grounded on the shoal in 1999. China has
accused the Filipinos of grounding the warship on purpose, and has
been demanding for years that Philippine navy remove the warship from
China's sovereign territory. Instead, the Filipinos stationed marines
on the ship and have been regularly sending in supplies, which angers
the Chinese. The Chinese have imposed a "three-layered" naval defense
around the region to prevent Filipino fishermen from getting there.
China Daily and Xinhua and
Philippines Star

****
**** China military strategy on trend to seize Ayungin from Philippines
****

China appears to be on the military path to seize the Ayungin Shoal /
Renai Reef from the Philippines, following the military strategy that
was stunningly successful last year in seizing the Scarborough Shoal
from the Philippines. The Chinese sent a fleet of warships into the
region to challenge Filipino ships. At one point, the Philippine Nave
had two ships facing off against 90 Chinese vessels. The United
States brokered a negotiated settlement, where both sides would
withdraw their vessels. The Philippines complied, but the Chinese
reneged, and instead took complete control of an island historically
the territory of the Philippines. The United States expressed outrage
at the Chinese subterfuge, but took no action other than the outrage.

Chinese experts praised the operation as an adroit exercise of Chinese
power, and are now encouraging the government to follow a similar
strategy to seize the Ayungin Shoal in the same way. They are
counting on the fact that the U.S. will, once again, take no action
except to express outrage. However, the Filipinos will not fall for a
similar subterfuge this time, and there may be a military
confrontation, even though the Philippine nave is substantially
inferior to the emerging blue-water Chinese navy.
Jamestown and Chiangrai (Thailand) Times

****
**** Britain ends last line of defense against an interstellar alien invasion
****


Flying object photographed in 1981 in Vancouver (Reuters)

Britain has released the last of the government's UFO files from the
Ministry of Defense's "UFO Desk," which was closed in November 2009
after 60 years in operation. The closure announcement resulted in a
spurt of new UFO sighting reports, though not nearly as many as after
the movie Close Encounters of the Third Kind reached movie theaters in
1978. The decision to close the UFO Desk was made after defense
secretary Bob Ainsworth was told that in 50 years "no UFO sighting
reported has ever revealed anything to suggest an extra-terrestrial
presence or military threat to the UK." Irish Times and UK National Archives on UFOs

Those who are interested in this subject may find it interesting to
read my discussion of the existence of extraterrestrials in Chapter 7 - The Singularity of my unfinished
book, "Generational Dynamics for Historians." The following is a
brief outline of the arguments in that chapter:

• It is almost a mathematical certainty that there is
  intelligent life in many places in the universe. Some places will be
  technologically ahead of us, some behind.
  
• Any planet with intelligent life must follow the same
  technological path as earth. You can't invent the car before you've
  invented the wheel. Technology invention must occur in the same order
  on every planet with intelligent life.
  
• Therefore, any such planet will reach the Singularity at the same
  point in its technological development. The Singularity is the point
  in time where computers when computers will be more intelligent and
  more creative than humans, and will be able to start improving
  themselves very rapidly. I estimate that the Singularity will occur
  on earth around 2030.
  
• Interstellar travel will not be possible prior to the Singularity.
  Therefore, any interstellar travelers will not be little green men
  with three eyes and antennae. They'll be super-intelligent computers,
  who will be well aware that we're about to reach the Singularity, and
  may well be waiting around for us to reach that point and pass it, so
  that we'll be intelligent enough to communicate with them.

Chapter 7 - The Singularity

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Philippines, Ayungin Shoal,
Renai Reef, South China Sea, BRP Sierra Madre,
Scarborough Shoal, Britain, UFO Desk, Bob Ainsworth,
Singularity

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*** 23-Jun-13 World View -- The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge
• The largest bubble in history
• Egypt's 'Tamarod' campaign heads for mass confrontation on June 30

****
**** The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E1) Index, 1871-present

I've written a couple of articles in the last four months that the
stock market bubble was rising so quickly that it was becoming
dangerously parabolic and might collapse at any time. The worldwide
selloff during the last week of stocks, bonds and commodities is
raising fears that the time is at hand. There is no way to predict
exactly when a crash will occur, or whether the current selloff is the
leading edge of a crash, but we can be absolutely certain that one is
coming at some point.

I hope that no regular readers of Generational Dynamics World
View are still in the stock market. If you are, then you have
no one to blame but yourself for what happens to you.

Mainstream economists are completely incompetent to recognize what's
happening. Just remember what mainstream economists were saying in
2006 about a possible real estate bubble that I and a few others were
writing about:

• "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to live
  somewhere."
  
• "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their interest to do
  so."
  
• "These housing construction firms know what they're doing, and
  they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a bubble."
  
• "Bubbles are impossible because of laws and regulations that were
  put into place in the 1930s."
  
• "They're not making any more land, you know."

It was not until 2010 that mainstream economists even admitted that
there had been a real estate bubble four years earlier. These
"experts" are so incompetent that they couldn't even recognize
something as obvious a huge real estate bubble until four years later.
This is the caliber of people you're depending on if you listen to
CNBC or read the financial news. You might as well ask your five year
old daughter for investment advice. It won't be any worse.

Last week's global selloff was apparently triggered by
a statement by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke that the Fed might
"taper" its policy of pumping $85 billion PER MONTH of
money into the banking system, which investors then used to
prop up the stock market. (Remember in 2007 how many people
complained about President Bush's $60 billion stimulus package?)

The reasons that analysts and "experts" gave in 2006 for why
there was no real estate bubble were ridiculous, and the reasons
we're hearing today for last week's stock market sellout sound
equally ridiculous:

• "The U.S. economy is so good that stocks will continue to go
  up."
  
• "People are being completely irrational to sell their stocks just
  because of a few words from Ben Bernanke."
  
• "Bernanke's words are now priced into the market, so the market
  will now go up again."
  
• "Whenever stock prices fall, investors rush in to take advantage
  of the low prices, so stocks go up again, so now's the time to
  buy."
  
• "The stock market fell over 50% in 2008, but economists figured
  out what went wrong, so it won't happen again."

The reason that a big selloff must occur is that stocks are
enormously overpriced.

It's impossible to predict with certainty when the current bubble will
deflate, but it's possible that it's deflating right now. Stocks are
enormously overpriced by historical standards. According to Friday's
Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index on Friday
(June 20) morning was 17.99, which is extremely high by historical
standards, indicating that stocks are far overpriced.

****
**** The largest bubble in history
****

If you look at the graph at the top of this article, you can
see what's going on. Every 30 years or so, the P/E index (also
called "stock valuations") falls to the 5-6 range, and it
appears to on its way down to that level again, which means
that the Dow index will fall to 3000 or lower.

What this graph also shows is that, since 1995, the stock market has
experienced the largest bubble in history. When it does collapse,
whether next week, next month, or next year, it will be the biggest
financial crisis in history. By the Law of Mean Reversion, the stock
market won't recover for decades.

The signs in the last week are that investors are selling everything
they can into order to pay off money they borrowed to invest in
stocks. A ZeroHedge article calls it "A Dash for Cash," and documents
how one asset class after another has fallen sharply in the last few
days. These asset classes include U.S. Treasuries, bonds from Spain,
Portugal, Greece, and Italy and other European countries, municipal
bonds, commodities, including gold and silver. There will be pressure
on Fed chairman Bernanke to reverse himself next week, even if a
reversal is a sign of desperation. Zero Hedge

****
**** Egypt's 'Tamarod' campaign heads for mass confrontation on June 30
****

Egypt's anti-government "Tamarod" (or "Rebel") campaign is calling for
massive demonstrations and protests on Sunday, June 30, in response to
to a rally by hundreds of thousands of Islamists in support of the
Muslim Brotherhood and president Mohamed Morsi on Friday (June 21) in
Cairo and other cities. The protesters plan to demand the resignation
of Morsi, and threaten to continue the protest until he resigns.
Morsi called for calm and accused the Tamarod protesters trying to
incite instability and of supporting the the regime of ousted
president Hosni Mubarak of inciting instability. On Saturday, he
warned the Tamarod protesters to restrain themselves on June 30:

<QUOTE>"They want to bring back the past because the
revolution harmed their interests. (People) must stop their evil
plans because they do not want calm and stability for
Egypt."<END QUOTE>

There was already sporadic violence between supporters and opponents
of Morsi in Friday's pro-Morsi demonstrations. But now 34 political
parties have announced plans to participate in the upcoming anti-Morsi
protests, and some are promising smaller protests all week, leading up
to Sunday. It's feared that there will a lot more violence between
the two groups next Sunday. Daily News Egypt and Al-Ahram (Cairo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Price/Earnings ratio,
real estate bubble, stock market bubble, Ben Bernanke,
quantitative easing, Law of Mean Reversion,
Egypt, Tamarod, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Hosni Mubarak

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*** 24-Jun-13 World View -- Sunni vs Shia violence explodes in Lebanon and Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Lebanon's army moves to crush sectarian violence in Sidon
• Angry Sunni mob attacks Shia families in Giza, Egypt, killing four
• Vicious attack by Pakistan Taliban kills 10 foreign tourists

****
**** Lebanon's army moves to crush sectarian violence in Sidon
****


Rescuers carry a man from an armored personnel carrier hit by an RPG launched by Assir's forces on Sunday (Daily Star)

The consequences of the invasion of the Iran-supported Shia terrorist
group Hezbollah into Syria, and their successful participation in the
stunning victory by the forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad in
flattening, demolishing and recapturing the town of Qusair are still
continuing to grow. Hezbollah's actions have infuriated Sunnis
throughout the region, and raised the specter of a major sectarian war
between Sunnis and Shias.

A major battle broke out on Sunday between the Army versus the
supporters of radical Salafist Sunni preacher Ahmad al-Assir. In a
surprise ambush using RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades), Ahmad's
fighters killed ten soldiers and wounded 38 others, and suffered two
of their own casualties in firefight that followed. The fighting
erupted at 2 p.m. and continued throughout the night.

Lebanon's Army has been trying to remain neutral between the Sunnis
and Shias, but this attack requires a response. According to a
statement:

<QUOTE>"The leadership of the Army will not stay silent
... it will continue its mission to break the strife in Sidon and
other regions, and will strike with an iron fist all who dare to
shed the blood of the Army.<END QUOTE>

In a video posted on Sunday, Assir said that the Army belonged to the
"shabbiha" [thugs] of Hezbollah and:

<QUOTE>"To all our partisans, we are being attacked by the
Lebanese Army, which is Iranian and Shiite. I call on all
partisans to block roads and all honorable Sunni and non-Sunni
[soldiers] to quit the Army."<END QUOTE>

The Army is demanding that all who participated in the ambush be
arrested. Daily Star (Beirut)

****
**** Angry Sunni mob attacks Shia families in Giza, Egypt, killing four
****


Angry mob beats a Shia in Giza on Sunday (Al-Ahram)

An angry mob of over 3,000 Sunnis, led by Sunni Salafist sheikhs,
torched and attack houses of Shias in a village in Giza, Egypt, on
Sunday afternoon killing four, including a prominent Shia leader.
Police did nothing to stop the attacks. According to a Shia activist,
the attack was triggered by a Muslim Brotherhood event at which
president Mohamed Morsi appeared:

<QUOTE>"We hold President Morsi responsible for this attack.
There are not less than three million Egyptian Shias who live in
Egypt and last Saturday during the Syria solidarity conference
attended by Morsi in the Cairo Stadium, Salafist sheikhs insulted
Shias and incited hate against those Egyptian Shia
citizens."<END QUOTE>

He added that Morsi did nothing to discourage the hate speech.

Two weeks ago, Morsi broke off all diplomatic relations with Syria,
as a consequence of Hezbollah's invasion of Syria. Sunday's
mob attack is one more sign of the increasing Sunni fury at
Syria's victory in Qusair, aided by Hezbollah.

This mob attack on Shias by thousands of Sunnis, led by Salafist Sunni
sheiks, is reminiscent of Aprils mob attack on Muslims in Burma
(Myanmar) by thousands of Buddhists, led by Buddhist monks. (See
"5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
)

People sometimes ask me how it's possible for World War III to start
if no politician declares war on anyone, since doing so would be "bad
for business." As I've explained before, a generational crisis war
comes from the people, not from the politicians, and this is
illustrated by the mob violence in Burma and Egypt in the recent past.
In this generational Crisis era, it would not take very much to
trigger a wider war that could envelope an entire region. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Vicious attack by Pakistan Taliban kills 10 foreign tourists
****

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP - the Pakistan Taliban) is claiming
responsibility for a vicious attack on foreign mountaineering tourists
in the Himalayas. Gilgit-Baltistan, which borders China and Kashmir,
had been considered one of the more secure areas of Pakistan, so this
attack is relatively unprecedented. The foreigners were from Ukraine,
China, Slovakia, Lithuania, Nepal, while one of them was
Chinese-American, and TTP says that it has created a new cell to
attack foreigners, to avenge the U.S. drone strikes. Al-Jazeera and Daily Times (Pakistan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Sidon, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Hezbollah, Ahmad al-Assir, Egypt, Giza, Mohamed Morsi,
Burma, Myanmar, Buddhists, Pakistan,
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP

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*** 25-Jun-13 World View -- Over 100 Afghan diplomats defect rather than return to Kabul

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sectarian coordinated bombings in Iraq kill 31 in Shia neighborhoods
• Fed official warns of 'feral hogs' who harm the economy
• German climate expert says climate models must change
• Over 100 Afghan diplomats defect rather than return to Kabul
• John Kerry arranges for sweet Obamacare bonus for Massachusetts

****
**** Sectarian coordinated bombings in Iraq kill 31 in Shia neighborhoods
****


Scene of two parked car bombs north of Baghdad on Sunday (AP)

At least 10 parked vehicles rigged with bombs exploded in eight Shia
neighborhoods across Baghdad on Monday, killing 31 people. The
targets included a market place and a restaurants, and occurred as
Shia Muslims marked Shabaniyah, the anniversary of the birth of Imam
Mehdi, a key figure in their faith. No one immediately claimed
responsibility for the bombings, but sectarian violence by Sunnis
targeting Shias has been increasing throughout the Mideast,
particularly since the invasion of the Iran-backed Shia terrorist
group Hezbollah into Syria in support of the regime of president
Bashar al-Assad. Terrorist violence in Iraq has been increasing ever
since American forces withdrew in December, 2011. Al-Jazeera and AFP

****
**** Fed official warns of 'feral hogs' who harm the economy
****

Prices of both stocks and bonds fell sharply on Monday, prompting
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve to accuse
"feral hogs" of scenting weakness and taking advantage of it:

<QUOTE>"Markets tend to test things. We haven't forgotten
what happened to the Bank of England [on Black Wednesday]. I don't
think anyone can break the Fed . . . . But I do believe that big
money does organize itself somewhat like feral hogs. If they
detect a weakness or a bad scent, they'll go after
it."<END QUOTE>

His comment refers to a 1992 attack led by George Soros on the Bank of
England, which led to the UK crashing out of the European exchange
rate mechanism. I guess Fisher thinks that Soros is a feral hog.

That's just another one of the desperate attempts to explain the sharp
selloff. See "23-Jun-13 World View -- The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge"
.

Besides feral hogs, some experts are pointing to another reason for
the global selloff: A "cash crunch" in China. China's economy is even
more dysfunctional than America's, with a gargantuan real estate bubble
and a huge credit bubble driven by a shadow banking system. The
Chinese authorities are attempting to control both bubbles by reducing
the money supply, and this is creating a credit crunch that's slowing
down the economy. This is having a ripple effect in the fall of
global commodity prices, as stock prices are falling throughout Asia.
Bloomberg

****
**** German climate expert says climate models must change
****

German meteorologist and climate expert Hans von Storch says that
climate scientists are puzzled by the fact that even though recent CO2
(carbon dioxide) emissions have actually risen even more steeply than
politicians and scientists feared, there has been almost no
temperature rise in the last 15 years. The climate models devised by
scientists 10-15 years ago predicted a very significant rise in
temperatures by now, but it just hasn't happened, indicating that
their climate models are "fundamentally wrong," according to von
Storch. There are two possible explanations: Either the rise in CO2
does not affect climate as much as scientists predicted, or else
scientists underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to
natural causes. Spiegel

****
**** Over 100 Afghan diplomats defect rather than return to Kabul
****

When U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the Administration aren't
begging Russia to return Edward Snowden or to stop supporting Bashar
al-Assad, they're begging the Afghanistan Taliban to hold peace talks.

The U.S. Administration has been so desperate to get the Afghan
Taliban to have peace talks, they've even dropped the preconditions
announced last year by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: They
must forego suicide attacks and violence, they must sever ties with
al-Qaeda, and they must accept Afghanistan's constitution, including
protections for women and minority. The Taliban have rejected all of
these demands, and the Administration have acquiesced.

It now turns out that some 105 Afghanistan diplomats defected en
masse on Saturday, when they were all supposed to return to Kabul
for scheduled rotation. They've remained in the country where they
have been posted, and said that they would apply for asylum in their
respective host countries. Many Afghan diplomats are the sons and
daughters of high-ranking politicians who are also trying to go abroad
as soon as possible and stay there until the situation in Afghanistan
becomes clearer.

The U.S. could use a diplomatic victory about now. Let's see where
Snowden ends up. Spiegel
and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)

****
**** John Kerry arranges for sweet Obamacare bonus for Massachusetts
****

Without specifically mentioning Massachusetts, then-Senator John Kerry
from Massachusetts inserted an opaque provision into the Obamacare bill
when it was first created in 2009, requiring Massachusetts hospital
workers to get significantly higher wages than workers in other
states. The change has allowed Massachusetts to raise its Medicare
payout by $257 million, forcing cuts to hospitals in 40 other
states. The Massachusetts manipulation of the program would hand that
state $3.5 billion over the next 10 years at the expense of Medicare
beneficiaries everywhere.

Since I live in Massachusetts, I guess this helps me at the expense of
most of you. Tough luck, suckers!

(Actually, the provision is expected to be repealed, which would "harm
patient care," according to Massachusetts officials.) Wall Street Journal and Boston Globe


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Sunnis, Shias, Baghdad,
Shabaniyah, Richard Fisher, Dallas Federal Reserve,
feral hogs, George Soros, China, Germany,
climate change, Hans von Storch,
Afghanistan, John Kerry, Edward Snowden, Taliban,
Hillary Clinton, al-Qaeda, Obamacare

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*** 26-Jun-13 World View -- Irish bankers sing 'Deutschland über alles' as they screw the Germans

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taliban commits stunning suicide attack in Kabul, Afghanistan
• Peace talks with Taliban will continue despite Kabul attack
• Irish bankers sing 'Deutschland über alles' as they screw the Germans
• Deutschland über alles

****
**** Taliban commits stunning suicide attack in Kabul, Afghanistan
****


Smoke rises from entrance to presidential palace in Kabul on Tuesday (BBC)

The Afghan Taliban claimed responsibility for a major suicide attack on
the presidential palace in Kabul, and the nearby U.S. CIA office. The
attack was stunning because it occurred within the "Ring of Steel,"
the highest security area within Kabul, which is supposed to be
impervious to Taliban attacks. hree security guards and four
militants died in the assault. Al-Jazeera

****
**** Peace talks with Taliban will continue despite Kabul attack
****

White House spokesman Jay Carney said that Barack Obama and
Afghan president Hamid Karzai both said that this won't
affect the peace process:

<QUOTE>"[Both presidents] reaffirmed that an Afghan-led and
Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process is the surest way to
end violence and ensure lasting stability in Afghanistan and the
region.

And they reiterated their support for an office in Doha for the
purpose of negotiations between the High Peace Council and
authorized representatives of the Taliban. The two presidents
reaffirmed that free, fair, and credible elections would be
critical to Afghanistan's future."<END QUOTE>

Regular readers know that I frequently write about the bizarre
nonsense that comes out of politicians' mouths, but this has got to be
the most farcical thing going on today. Washington is desperate to
get a "peace process" going with the Taliban, but the Taliban say that
they're going to continue violence and suicide bombings even while the
peace talks are going on. "Oh, another suicide bombing? That's fine,
old chap. Let's carry on with the peace talks!" BBC

****
**** Irish bankers sing 'Deutschland über alles' as they screw the Germans
****

Recordings of phone calls by top Irish banksters in September and
October, 2008, at the height of their financial crisis, show that,
like many bankers that we've already highlighted in the past, these
Irish bankers were cheap crooks with no morals and no ethics, ready to
screw anybody, even their own nation, for their personal gain.

The recordings, which have just been released show the following:

• Anglo-Irish Bank senior manager John Bowe, whose salary was
  300,000 euros, purposely lied to government officials, employed a
  strategy of purposeful dishonesty in order to get a bailout and keep
  his lucrative job. He decided to ask for 7 billion euros, pulling
  that number "out of his arse," even though he knew that wouldn't help,
  because it wasn't too little and it wasn't too much:
  
  
  <QUOTE>"If they (Central Bank) saw the enormity of it up
  front, they might decide they have a choice. You know what I mean?
  
  They might say the cost to the taxpayer is too high . . . if it
  doesn't look too big at the outset . . . if it looks big, big
  enough to be important, but not too big that it kind of spoils
  everything, then, then I think you have a chance. So I think it
  can creep up. ...
  
  "The reality is that actually we need more than that. [The
  strategy is] you pull them in, you get them to write a big check,
  and they have to keep, they have to support, their
  money."<END QUOTE>
• The bank CEO, David Drumm, says to Bowe:
  
  
  <QUOTE>"We won't do anything blatant, but ... we have to get
  the money in ... get the f***in' money in, get it
  in."<END QUOTE>
  
  Drumm then starts laughing hysterically when Bowe talks about how
  they're accepting deposits from Germans that will never be paid back,
  and then starts singing the German national anthem, "Deutschland über
  alles."

The lies worked. Anglo-Irish bank received its 7 billion euro
bailout, and ended up receiving a lot more -- 30 billion euros
-- all of which was money down a rathole. Bowe and Drumm knew
that would happen, but they lied anyway to keep their lucrative
jobs, defrauding the government, the taxpayers, and the depositors,
including the German depositors. But of course, no one is
going to jail. How can you send a crook to jail if everyone
is a crook?

This is just one more story in the dozens that I've written about. An
entire generation of bankers purposely created tens of trillions of
dollars in fraudulent synthetic mortgage-backed securities, and then
sold them as AAA risk free. Bankers manipulated Libor for their own
profit. CNBC analysts and "experts" lie every day about
price/earnings ratios (stock valuations). IRS employees target
political enemies (and possibly personal enemies, for all we know),
and the Obama administration lies about it. And of course, Eric
Holder's Dept. of Justice refuses to investigate and prosecute the
banksters who created the financial crisis, and then used the money
they obtained to make huge donations to the Obama campaign. Every
day, it's one more sickening revelation after another. Irish Independent and Irish Independent

****
**** Deutschland über alles
****

I wrote an article about the German national anthem, "Deutschland über
alles," in 2006. (See "Are Germans now proud to be Germans?"
) This is the song that
Anglo-Irish bank senior executive John Bowe mimicked when he talked
about how they were screwing the Germans.

The melody was composed by Franz Joseph Haydn in 1797, and put to
words in 1841, to create "Das Lied der Deutschen" (Song of the
Germans). Hitler adopted the song as his national anthem. After the
war, two verses of the anthem were removed, leaving only the third
verse, which talks about "Unity and law and freedom for the German
Fatherland."

However, the most interesting verse is the second one:

<QUOTE>"German women, German loyalty,<br>
German wine and German song,<br>
Shall retain in the world,<br>
Their old lovely ring<br>
To inspire us to noble deeds<br>
Our whole life long.<br>
German women, German loyalty,<br>
German wine and German song."<END QUOTE>

They really should have kept that one. Check out the 2006 article.
The history of "Deutschland über alles" is really interesting.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Kabul,
Ring of Steel, Hamid Karzai,
Ireland, Anglo-Irish bank, Germany,
Deutschland über alles, John Bowe, David Drumm,
Franz Joseph Haydn, Hitler

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The Afghan Taliban claimed responsibility for a major suicide attack on
the presidential palace in Kabul, and the nearby U.S. CIA office. The
attack was stunning because it occurred within the "Ring of Steel,"
the highest security area within Kabul, which is supposed to be
impervious to Taliban attacks.

Must have forgotten to cover up that exhaust port, eh?

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Must have forgotten to cover up that exhaust port, eh?

Apparently the Taliban have a lot of experience bombing womp rats.

*** 27-Jun-13 World View -- Gun sales explode, thanks to Obama's anti-gun campaign

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gun sales explode, thanks to Obama's anti-gun campaign
• Violence flares again in China's Xinjiang province
• Israel approves new West Bank settlements on eve of John Kerry visit
• Wall Street stocks gain on bad U.S. economic news

****
**** Gun sales explode, thanks to Obama's anti-gun campaign
****


3D printer printing a cup -- it could just as easily have been a gun

President Barack Obama has been more successful than former NRA
president Charlton Heston or current NRA president Wayne LaPierre
in making guns available to a lot more people.
Thanks to President Obama and his anti-gun campaigns, gun
sales are exploding well into record territory. Gun
manufacturer Smith & Wesson reports that its gun sales
are up a whopping 42% this year. According to the CEO:

<QUOTE>"While we significantly increased our production
capacity in fiscal year 2013, we remain capacity constrained, as
we have for the past five quarters. We plan to continue
intelligently increasing capacity in fiscal year
2014."<END QUOTE>

If Obama were going to run for president again, I'm sure that Smith &
Wesson would want to contribute to his campaign, because Obama is very
good for the gun business -- better than George Bush or any recent
president, and better than the NRA. Furthermore, Obama can point to
the gun industry as a place where he personally can take credit for
creating jobs -- jobs for gun manufacturers, gun distributors, gun
retailers, and owners of gun practice ranges. Thanks to Obama, it's
just guns, guns and more guns. When Obama's opponents point to his
failures to create jobs, he can shut his critics up by pointing to his
spectacular success with creating jobs in the gun industry.

Smith & Wesson's business is so good that they're capacity
constrained, but 3D printers are quickly filling the gap. Cody
Wilson, head of Texas nonprofit Defense Distributed, has demonstrated
a 3D-printed gun that can be used hundreds of times before failing,
and has published the blueprints (CAD file) on his web site. The
whole gun control issue became even more farcical last month, when the
U.S. State Dept. ordered Cody to remove the blueprints from his web
site. But no matter, they're now available elsewhere on the internet.

When I wrote about 3D printed guns
in December, 3D printers cost many thousands of dollars, and
3D-printed guns could not survive more than a few shots. I said at
the time that the technology would quickly become much better and much
cheaper, and it already has. Staples, for example, is selling the
Cube 3D Printer for prices starting at $1200, and the $1000 barrier
should be broken very soon. So President Obama is helping create jobs
in another way, as people get into the business of 3D-printing and
selling their own guns, if not legally, then in the black market. (By
the way, I've been told that you can sell a 3D printed gun legally if
you sell it in parts that the buyer has to assemble.) CNN and NY Daily News and Staples - 3D Printers

****
**** Violence flares again in China's Xinjiang province
****

Xinjiang province, in northwest China, is about as far away from
Beijing as you can get and still be in China, so it's not surprising
the the ethnic Uighurs are extremely dissatisfied by having the
distant Beijing government tell them how to run their lives, how to
dress, and how to practice (or not practice) their Sunni Muslim
religion, while at the same time, discriminating against Uighurs in
favor of the mainstream Han Chinese. Early Wednesday morning, a mob
of Uighurs began attacking Han Chinese, including civilians, police
officers, and other government employees. After nine were killed, the
police shot dead ten of the rioters, and arrested three. The attack
may have been prompted by the fourth anniversary of the mob attack by
Uighurs on July 5, 2009, which left 197 people dead and 1,600 injured.
China has a policy of resettling masses of Han Chinese in Xinjiang, in
order to dilute the Uighur population and to assimilate them. As
similar policy in Tibet has met with no success. The Uighurs are from
the same central Asian Turkic ethnic group as the people of Turkey
are, and in 2009, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accused the
Chinese government of genocide, and demanded that they end their
policy of assimilation. Global Times (Beijing) and AFP

****
**** Israel approves new West Bank settlements on eve of John Kerry visit
****

Israel has approved construction permits on Wednesday for 69 new homes
in East Jerusalem, in an area taken over by Israel in the 1967 war
with Palestinians. The approval comes one day before U.S. Secretary
of State John Kerry is due to arrive in Israel, with the intention of
reviving the "peace process" between Israel and the Palestinians. The
approval might therefore be interpreted as a thumb in the eye of
President Barack Obama, who has asked Israel to freeze settlement
building in order to revive the peace talks. As I've said repeatedly
for the last ten years (see "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" from 2003), a peace agreement
between Israel and the Palestinians is impossible, since they're
headed for a new genocidal war re-fighting the 1949 war between Arab
and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation
of the state of Israel. Jerusalem Post

****
**** Wall Street stocks gain on bad U.S. economic news
****

I just love this. The economic news was bad on Wednesday because of
data showing the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in
the first quarter, well below expectations for gross domestic product
to grow at a 2.4 percent annual rate. Investors believe that the
economic news was so bad that the Fed will be forced to continue its
$86 billion per month quantitative easing program for longer than
expected, and so Wall Street stocks gained 1%. (See "23-Jun-13 World View -- The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge"
.) The bad
economic news means that you and I and "the 99%" will be harmed
financially, but the continued quantitative easing will mean that "the
1%" investors and politicians will continue to be able to use the
quantitative easing money to make more money for themselves. Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, gun control, Smith & Wesson,
Charlton Heston, NRA, 3D printer, Cody Wilson, Staples,
China, Uighurs, Xinjiang, Han Chinese,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel, John Kerry,
Wall Street, quantitative easing

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