*** 10-Jul-13 World View -- Large car bomb explodes in pro-Hezbollah area of Lebanon
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Afghan Taliban closes its Qatar office as negotiations fail
- U.S. is considering the 'zero option' for Afghanistan pullout
- Pakistan warns of protracted civil war in Afghanistan
- Japan accuses China of using military force over Senkaku islands
- Large car bomb explodes in pro-Hezbollah area of Lebanon
- Bond market appears to be collapsing
****
**** Afghan Taliban closes its Qatar office as negotiations fail
****
Afghan Taliban office in Doha, Qatar (Al-Jazeera)
On Tuesday, the Afghan Taliban finally closed its office in Doha,
Qatar, which was supposed to be used as the site of "peace
negotiations" with the U.S. and the government of Afghanistan. The
office opened on June 18, and negotiations were to start with a couple
of days. But the negotiations collapsed the next day, because Afghan
president Hamid Karzai was furious that the Taliban displayed a plaque
calling it the office of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," and
displayed the Taliban flag. Qatari officials demanded that the plaque
and flag be taken down, but then the Taliban were angry. So now
the office is closed.
Recall that the U.S. Administration was so desperate to get the Afghan
Taliban to have peace talks, they dropped the preconditions announced
last year by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: They must
forego suicide attacks and violence, they must sever ties with
al-Qaeda, and they must accept Afghanistan's constitution, including
protections for women and minority. The Taliban rejected all of these
demands, and the Administration have acquiesced. So, while all this
talk about "peace negotiations" has been going on for the last few
weeks, the Taliban have been bombing innocent people in Kabul,
Afghanistan's capital.
As I've written dozens of times in the last few years, there is no
chance of a "peace process" in Afghanistan. The easiest way to see
that is a comparison with Iraq, where President George Bush's "surge"
was a factor in the successful peace treaty that allowed the U.S. to
withdraw. Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war,
climaxing in 1988 -- an EXTERNAL war, where the Iraqis, Sunnis and
Shias alike, united to fight the Iranians. But Afghanistan's last
crisis war was the genocidal civil war of 1992-96 -- an INTERNAL war,
pitting the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan against the the Northern
Alliance, an alliance of Tajiks and Hazaras in northern Afghanistan.
Furthermore, the Taliban are Sunni Islamist Pashtuns, occupying a
large region starting in Afghanistan, through the tribal area, and
deep into northwestern Pakistan, which is in a generational Crisis
era. These are major differences that make an Afghanistan peace
process impossible, and the whole attempt to negotiate peace with the
Taliban a farce.
Nonetheless, the State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki made another
ridiculous statement on Tuesday:
<QUOTE>"We believe that misunderstandings that arose in the
context of the opening [of the office] should not stand in the way
of moving forward on reconciliation if the Taliban wishes to do
so. We'll continue to support and reiterate our call for that
process to move forward."<END QUOTE>
Well, Jen, you just go ahead and keep on reiterating that, and let's
see if the process moves forward. Al-Jazeera and VOA
****
**** U.S. is considering the 'zero option' for Afghanistan pullout
****
The White House says that President Barack Obama is considering the
"zero option," pulling all U.S. forces out of Afghanistan by the end
of 2014, rather than leave a small residual force behind to help
prevent a Taliban takeover. According to reports, Obama and Afghan
president Hamid Karzai are in such vitriolic disagreement that Obama
has decided to threaten the zero option.
As I wrote in "Barack Obama in Berlin calls for greater European militarism"
during his 2008 campaign,
Obama made a victory in Afghanistan a big part of his plan:
<QUOTE>"This is the moment when we must renew our resolve to
rout the terrorists who threaten our security in Afghanistan, and
the traffickers who sell drugs on your streets. No one welcomes
war. I recognize the enormous difficulties in Afghanistan. But my
country and yours have a stake in seeing that NATO's first mission
beyond Europe's borders is a success. For the people of
Afghanistan, and for our shared security, the work must be done.
America cannot do this alone. The Afghan people need our troops
and your troops; our support and your support to defeat the
Taliban and al Qaeda, to develop their economy, and to help them
rebuild their nation. We have too much at stake to turn back
now."<END QUOTE>
Well, it looks like we're going to turn back now. VOA
****
**** Pakistan warns of protracted civil war in Afghanistan
****
Unnamed Pakistan officials criticized Hamid Karzai's handling of the
so-called Taliban "peace negotiations," and warned that Afghanistan
would plunge into a prolonged civil war if the negotiations failed.
This is completely wrong. Afghanistan is entering a generational
Awakening era, and so a new crisis civil war is impossible or, if one
begins, it will fizzle quickly. Afghanistan had a crisis civil war
from 1991-96, and there are too many survivors who lived through the
massacres and atrocities committed to and by their families and
friends, and will not allow anything like that will happen again.
What appears to be on the horizon is a disaster similar to America's
withdrawal from Vietnam in 1974, when Viet Cong forces overran South
Vietnam, causing America's first defeat in war, and leading to the
massive "killing fields" holocaust in Cambodia. The situation in
Afghanistan is made worse by the fact that it's apparently going to be
impossible for America to remove ten years of weapons and supplies
from Afghanistan, because the country is land-locked, so some of those
weapons may well fall into the hands of the Taliban.
But there won't be a civil war. The Taliban will take over in
Afghanistan, and there'll be no one there to stop them. After that,
Afghanistan's war will become a proxy war, pitting fighters from
Pakistan and Central Asia. Pakistan Today
****
**** Japan accuses China of using military force over Senkaku islands
****
Japan's Defense Ministry issued a white paper for 2013 accusing China
of air and sea activities the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands that are
"dangerous actions that could cause a contingency situation." The
statement reflects widespread concern that a miscalculation by either
Japan or China could spark a nationalist response that could lead to a
wider war. The white paper also mentions the threats from North Korea
in the form of nuclear missiles that could reach Japan or the
U.S. mainland. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government is facing
elections in two weeks, and Abe is supporting revisions to Japan's
pacifist constitution to allow for a more aggressive Japanese
military. Japan Times
****
**** Large car bomb explodes in pro-Hezbollah area of Lebanon
****
Over 50 people were injured on Tuesday when a massive car bomb
explosion hit a pro-Hezbollah Shia suburb south of Beirut in Lebanon.
Sectarian Sunni versus Shia violence has been increasing in Lebanon,
ever since Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Iran-backed
Hezbollah terrorist group, announced that Hezbollah fighters would
aggressively support the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
in the over two-year old civil war / proxy war. Nasrallah's
announcement has triggered rising sectarian Sunni versus Shia
throughout the Mideast. Daily Star (Beirut) and Al-Manar (Beirut)
****
**** Bond market appears to be collapsing
****
Bond market collapse (Bloomberg)
The above chart shows that money has been flowing out of stocks into
bonds for the last five years. But the red bar on the far right shows
that the bond market has been collapsing in the last month, but the
money is NOT going back into stocks. This reflects the fact that bond
yields (interest rates) have surged in the U.S. and in eurozone
nations since May 1.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar,
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai,
Jen Psaki, zero option, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia,
Japan, China, Senkaku, Diaoyu, Shinzo Abe,
Beirut, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
bond market
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