*** 25-Jul-13 World View -- Egypt's army calls for mass protests to fight 'terrorism'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hamas accuses Egypt of 'starving' the people of Gaza
• Egypt's army calls for mass protests to fight 'terrorism'
• U.S. delays F-16s to Egypt, but continues money aid

****
**** Hamas accuses Egypt of 'starving' the people of Gaza
****


Egyptian military helicopter flying over Alexandria (Reuters)

Hamas, the governing authority on the Gaza Strip, is accusing Egypt of
the some of the things that it used to accuse Israel of. Hamas
officials are accusing Egypt of making the siege of Gaza worse than
ever by destroying smuggling tunnels and closing the Rafah border
crossing:

<QUOTE>"Even [former Egyptian president] Hosni Mubarak did
not starve the Gaza Strip. By destroying the tunnels without
providing an alternative, the Egyptians are punishing the entire
population of the Gaza Strip and deepening the humanitarian and
economic crisis."<END QUOTE>

Over the past few days, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have reported
that Egyptian military helicopters have been flying over parts of
Gaza, as part of the massive military crackdown that's in progress in
Sinai. (See "13-Jul-13 World View -- Israel and Egypt cooperate against terrorists in Sinai"
)

Egypt claims that Hamas has been mettling in Egypt's affairs by
encouraging Muslim Brotherhood violence, and by sponsoring terrorism
in Sinai.

So Hamas is getting particularly concerned that Egypt's Army plans to
take control of Gaza. Gaza used to be part of Egypt until the 1967
war with Israel, when Israel took control. In 2005, the Israelis gave
Gaza to the Palestinians, and in 2008, Hamas took control of it.
Jerusalem Post

****
**** Egypt's army calls for mass protests to fight 'terrorism'
****

Egypt's Army chief Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi on Wednesday called for mass
demonstrations on Friday to give the military a mandate to crackdown
on "violence and terrorism." According to El-Sisi:

<QUOTE>"I ask ... that next Friday all honest and trustworthy
Egyptians must come out. Why come out? They come out to give me
the mandate and order that I confront violence and potential
terrorism."<END QUOTE>

The army arrested President Mohamed Morsi on July 3, about a year
after he and his Muslim Brotherhood party the first free presidential
election in Egypt's history, and about six months after Morsi
suspended the constitution and gave himself dictatorial powers. Morsi
has not been since in public since his arrest. Many other Brotherhood
officials have also been arrested, and more were arrested on
Wednesday. About 30% of Egypt's population belong to the Muslim
Brotherhood, and since July 3, there have been huge daily protests
across the country, demanding that Morsi be returned to the
presidency. So now the Army chief is asking for a huge anti-Morsi
demonstration on Friday, to give the army a "mandate." So it now
appears that there are going to be huge pro- and anti-Morsi rallies on
Friday, with many opportunities for confrontation and violence.

Muslim Brotherhood activists are furious that El-Sisi implied that
Brotherhood members were guilty of "violence and terrorism,"
especially after dozens of Brotherhood supporters have been killed by
the Army in recent weeks.

However, El-Sisi may have been referring to the Sinai, where al-Qaeda
linked militants with links to some hardline Brotherhood members have
been conducting terrorists attacks, causing Egyptian, Israeli and
nearby U.S. forces to be put on alert. al-Arabiya (Dubai) and al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** U.S. delays F-16s to Egypt, but continues money aid
****

According to a Pentagon spokesman:

<QUOTE>"Given the current situation in Egypt, we do not
believe it is appropriate to move forward at this time with the
delivery of F-16s."<END QUOTE>

U.S. law requires that aid to any country be terminated if the army
states a coup against a democratically elected leader. Since ending
all aid to Egypt would likely be a disaster for the entire Mideast,
the Administration has studiously avoided using the word "coup" to
described what happened in Egypt. And so the $1.5 billion in aid to
Egypt can continue. But Wednesday's announcement is an attempt to
appease critics in Washington and, at the same time, to send a signal
to Egypt's army to restore a "normal" government as quickly as
possible. VOA


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Gaza, Hamas, Rafah, Sinai,
Hosni Mubarak, Israel, Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi,
Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Pentagon

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*** 26-Jul-13 World View -- Egypt prepares for massive showdown on Friday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan considers pre-emptive military strike capability
• Burma Buddhists attempt to justify genocidal attacks on Muslims
• Egypt prepares for massive showdown on Friday
• North and South Korea fail to agree on opening Kaesong

****
**** Japan considers pre-emptive military strike capability
****


Shinzo Abe wants you! (Reuters)

With the reelection of the hawkish Shinzo Abe as prime minister, Japan
is considering moving further away from its post-WW II pacificism.
The Defense Ministry is likely to call in the report for consideration
of acquiring the ability to make a pre-emptive strike when an enemy
attack is imminent, and creating a Marines force to protect remote
islands such as those at the core of a dispute with China. Although
it would take years to implement a pre-emptive strike force, mere
discussion of this change in policy is certain to inflame China's
nationalism. In the meantime, near-confrontations between China and
Japan around the disputed East China Sea islands occur on an almost
daily basis. Reuters and AP

****
**** Burma Buddhists attempt to justify genocidal attacks on Muslims
****

The genocidal attacks by Buddhists on Muslims in Burma (Myanmar) in
the last year have been an enormous embarrassment to many Buddhists
because it's a clear violation of the Buddhist principles of
non-violence. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
.)

Buddhist monks in Burma, who have been leading the genocidal attacks
on Muslims, have been justifying their actions on an exception to the
Buddhist teaching on `ahimsa’, or non-violence, which is one of the
religion’s five fundamental precepts.

The exception is that violent acts are permitted when they are acts of
self-defense, committed with "pure intentions."

In the case of Burma, the monks rationalize their violent acts based
on fear that the country is being overtaken by Muslims, even though
the country has a 90% Buddhist majority among its 60 million people,
and the Muslims are about 5% of the population, many of whom are both
disenfranchised and stateless.

According to one Buddhist scholar:

<QUOTE>"We are deeply ashamed by the appalling treatment of
Muslims now occurring in some Buddhist countries.

Theravada Buddhists, and particularly their leaders, are betraying
the Buddhist value of non-violence, let alone kindness and
compassion."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Buddhists are no
different from any other religious group. During generational
Awakening eras (like America in the 1960s), they'll proclaim love and
peace and so forth. But in generational Crisis eras, like today,
they'll become increasingly nationalistic, increasingly willing to put
their nationalism and ideology above individual rights, and
increasingly willing to use techniques from torture to genocide
against real or imagined enemies.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's clear in this
case is that Buddhists and Muslims are headed for a major genocidal
war in Southeast Asia, and this will be a major component of the
coming Clash of Civilizations World War. IRIN (U.N.)

****
**** Egypt prepares for massive showdown on Friday
****

It's Friday again, the day that Egyptians pour out of mosques after
midday prayers to go shopping or to attend mass demonstrations. The
Muslim Brotherhood has been holding mass pro-Morsi demonstrations
every Friday since president Mohamed Morsi was deposed in a coup on
July 3. And the Army has issued a call for anti-Morsi demonstrators
to come out on Friday to give the military a mandate to crack down on
"violence and terrorism." However, the Army and Mohamed Morsi's camp
have each been moving to defuse tensions. The Army insisted that it
was not targeting Morsi's backers in calling for a mass rally against
"terrorism and violence." And the fugitive leader of the Muslim
Brotherhood, Mohamed Badie, urged Egyptians to peacefully make a
"stand for freedom and legitimacy, and against the bloody coup." On
the other hand, Egypt's army gave the Muslim Brotherhood until
Saturday afternoon to sign up to political reconciliation, and
threatened to use tougher tactics against the group. AFP

****
**** North and South Korea fail to agree on opening Kaesong
****

Early in June, The North Koreans proposed holding talks on reopening
the Kaesong Industrial Complex. North Korea's child dictator Kim
Jong-un had shut down the complex in April when he threw his temper
tantrum, threatening to shoot missiles at Japan, South Korea, and
America. On Thursday, talks between North and South Korea broke down
without agreement. The South has been asking for the North to
guarantee it won't block operations due to non-economic reasons and
called on the North to accept responsibility for the current
situation. The North countered that work must begin immediately, and
that it cannot take sole responsibility for the current impasse. The
breakdown raises the possibility that the Kaesong Industrial Complex
will never reopen. Yonhap (Seoul) and Xinhua

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, pacifism,
East China Sea, Burma, Myanmar, Buddhism,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
North Korea, South Korea, Kaesong Industrial Complex

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*** 27-Jul-13 World View -- Morsi facing treason charge as millions demonstrate in Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Morsi facing treason charge as millions demonstrate in Egypt
• Ousting Morsi may have saved Egypt from austerity, for a while
• Eastern Mediterranean becomes the next Persian Gulf

****
**** Morsi facing treason charge as millions demonstrate in Egypt
****


Anti-Morsi demonstrators cross a bridge in Cairo on Friday (BBC)

Hundreds of thousands of pro-Army demonstrators filled Tahrir Square
in Cairo, Egypt, on Friday, in opposition to ousted president Mohamed
Morsi, responding to Wednesday's request by Army chief Abdel-Fattah
El-Sisi to give the Army a "mandate" to fight "terrorism and
violence," presumably referring to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Pro-Morsi demonstrators filled other locations in Cairo and
other cities. The protests were mostly peaceful, but pro-Morsi
activists reported that some of their demonstrators had come
under attack by security forces, injuring 35 people.

The great drama of the day occurred when the government handed down an
accusation that Morsi had conspired with Gaza militants Hamas to storm
police stations and jails, to break a number of Muslim Brotherhood
leaders, including Morsi himself, out of jail in January, 2011, at the
start of the revolution. Morsi has not been seen in public since he
was ousted on July 3, and Friday's charges mean that he will continue
to be held at an undisclosed location for at least another 15 days,
and a charge of conspiring with a foreign government (Hamas) against
Egypt's government could turn into a charge of treason. Both Hamas
and the Muslim Brotherhood called the conspiracy charges "ridiculous,"
although the jail break did occur. BBC and
Al-Jazeera and Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Ousting Morsi may have saved Egypt from austerity, for a while
****

Since Hosni Mubarak was ousted by the Egyptian Revolution that began
in January, 2011, Egypt's foreign reserves have fallen from $36
billion to $14.9 billion. During the last year, when Mohamed Morsi
was president, Egypt's economy continued to deteriorate. Since
January, the budget deficit has been running at about $3.2 billion per
month, almost half in government spending. Morsi had been desperately
trying to negotiate a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
but that would have meant harsh austerity measures, including big
cutbacks in government spending.

However, the economy has stabilized in recent weeks, since the coup
that ousted Morsi. The reason is that, with Morsi's Muslim
Brotherhood out of government, Egypt has been promised $12 billion in
aid from Gulf Arab states that don't like or trust the Muslim
Brotherhood -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait.
Qatar, the home of al-Jazeera and the lover of the Muslim Brotherhood,
had given $7 billion to Egypt in the last year, which hadn't been
enough to keep Egypt's economy from deteriorating.

But now with this $12 billion flowing in, Egypt's new leaders don't
have to worry about those nasty austerity measures that have such a
problem in Greece and other European countries that received IMF aid.
Egypt can go on spending as before. According to Ahmad Galal, Egypt's
new finance minister:

<QUOTE>"One of the important tools to deal with the budget
deficit is stimulating the economy. Stimulating the economy means
tax revenues will increase and, in turn, the deficit will
decrease.

Political agreement is the best and shortest route to revive the
economy because, if there is stability and security and agreement,
tourists will come back and local and foreign investors will be
more keen on investing. We will seek to pump more new funds into
the economy and not follow austerity measures. We do not want to
increase taxes sharply, that is if we increase them at all, and we
do not want to lower spending in a way that will slow a revival of
the economy."<END QUOTE>

So it looks like Egypt is going to follow the same government spending
policies that have worked so well, promoting economic growth and
reducing the deficit, in the U.S., Ireland, Greece and other countries
during the credit and real estate bubble of the mid-2000s decade.
(Not.) Egypt doesn't need funding from a big bubble, because they've
got the Arab nations to fund the growth. It ought to be interesting.
al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters

****
**** Eastern Mediterranean becomes the next Persian Gulf
****

For more than two decades, the United States has placed the issue of
Eastern Mediterranean maritime security on the backburner. But the
2010 discovery of vast oil and gas deposits in the region's Levant
Basin is eliciting competition over exclusive economic zones among
countries such as Israel, Cyprus, Turkey, and Lebanon. Furthermore,
the naval activities of Iranian-backed terrorist groups, Russia’s
quest to expand its international influence, Turkey’s overconfident
posture, and political unrest in Syria and Egypt have collectively
exacerbated tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. As conflicts loom,
U.S. armed forces should be prepared to face the same kinds of
tensions as in the Persian Gulf. American Enterprise Institute


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Hamas, Hosni Mubarak, International Monetary Fund,
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Turkey, Russia

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*** 28-Jul-13 World View -- Generational Dynamics analysis of the crisis in Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Dozens of Egyptian pro-Morsi protesters killed by security forces
• Generational Dynamics analysis of the crisis in Egypt
• The Muslim Brotherhood
• Egypt's future

****
**** Dozens of Egyptian pro-Morsi protesters killed by security forces
****


Pro-Morsi supporters carry an injured man to a field hospital on Saturday (AP)

Dozens of pro-Morsi protesters were killed on Saturday by live fire
from government security forces. Army spokesmen are claiming that the
pro-Morsi protesters started shooting first, and there is some
evidence that one or two snipers fired at security forces in order to
cause a confrontation. But there's no doubt that most of the
firepower came from the security forces, and most of the targets were
pro-Morsi Muslim Brotherhood supporters. Egypt's health ministry
reported 38 deaths on Saturday, while the Muslim Brotherhood claimed a
much higher number -- 120 people killed, 4,500 people injured.
Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Generational Dynamics analysis of the crisis in Egypt
****

When the Egyptian Revolution began in January, 2011, I began writing
frequent generational analyses of what was going on. Much of what I
wrote was widely disputed in comments by many people, but now, 2-1/2
years later, those analyses and predictions have turned out to be
correct. As I've been saying since 2005, there is no web site,
analyst, journalist, politician or pundit with anything close to the
consistent predictive success of my web site and Generational
Dynamics, and my challenge to anyone to point one out is still open.

There was a negative story line that I saw repeatedly from analysts
and journalists across the political spectrum. Those on the right
tended to adopt the entire story line, but even pundits on the left
adopted various parts of it. The outline is as follows:

• The Egyptian Revolution would be a repeat of Iran's Great
  Islamic Revolution of 1979.
  
• The Muslim Brotherhood would hide its intentions until it was in
  power, and then it would use violent tactics to kill anyone opposing
  it, including Egyptians, Jews, Coptic Christians, Israelis, and
  Americans, and then would establish a harsh Sharia law state.
  
• Alternatively, some people predicted a takeover by the Army, and
  the establishment of a strict Sharia law state, in cooperation with
  the Muslim Brotherhood.
  
• Either way, Egypt would abrogate its peace treaty with Israel, and
  would end the blockage of Hamas in Gaza.

Some parts of these mainstream predictions turned out to be true. The
ones who predicted that the Muslim Brotherhood would come to power
were right, and the ones who predicted that Army would come to power
were right, although they each came to power at different times. From the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, the outcomes of elections and
political decisions are chaotic events (in the sense of Chaos Theory),
so I didn't make any predictions about who would be governing.

However, it was pretty clear, from generational considerations, that
most of the rest of the above scenario was wrong. The following is a
summary of what I wrote in "4-Feb-11 News -- The lull before the storm in Egypt as 'Friday of Departure' approaches"
and "3-Feb-11 News -- Violence between protester factions kills three in Egypt"
and <#inc ww2010.weblog.subref e110131
e110131b ""31-Jan-11 News -- Millions riot in Egypt as the West
fears a Muslim Brotherhood victory.""#>.

****
**** The Muslim Brotherhood
****

The most important generational consideration regarding the Muslim
Brotherhood involves the following two facts:

• Although they were violent in the war between Jews and Arabs
  in the late 1940s, they completely renounced violence in the early
  1980s.
  
• The vast majority of Egyptians are under age 30.

Thus, the vast majority of Egyptians have never known violence from
the Muslim Brotherhood. That would include members of the Brotherhood
itself. Of course, there are some old geezer politicians in the MB
who dream of the old days when they could blow somebody up, but those
are a tiny minority by this time.

As I've written dozens of times, it's a basic principle of
Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and
events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of
people, and not by politicians. What politicians say or do is
irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of
the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause
nor prevent the great events of history. It's a consequence of this
principle that it's extremely unlikely that the Brotherhood is going
to return to its violence of the late 1940s. And now, 2-1/2 years
into the Egyptian Revolution, we can see that's true.

The same generational reasoning applies to the prediction that the
Brotherhood would abrogate Egypt's peace agreement with Israel. Any
such major decision would have to come from the masses of people, and
if so, then it would have happened while Mubarak was still in power.
The fact that the peace agreement was in place for over 30 years
indicates that the people of Egypt really want to have peace with
Israel, and nothing about that is particularly surprising. Nor is it
surprising that, even when the Brotherhood and Mohamed Morsi came to
power, no attempt was made to abrograte the peace treaty.

As for violent attacks on Jews and Coptic Christians, there have been
some isolated incidents, but after 2-1/2 years, it's clear that
there's going to be no widespread attacks. Pro-Morsi and anti-Morsi
demonstrators have been targeting each other, not Jews and Christians.

Here's what I wrote about the protesters in 2011:

• They are NOT demanding anything related to Hamas.
• They are NOT demanding anything related to al-Qaeda.
• They are NOT shouting, "Death to Israel!"
• They are NOT shouting "Death to America!"
• They are NOT burning Israeli flags.
• They are NOT burning American flags.
• They only want the resignation of Mubarak.

The political objectives have changed (depose Morsi or reinstate
Morsi), but there's absolutely no sign that the masses of Egyptian
people want a relationship with Hamas or that they want to kill Jews
or Christians.

What I've said repeatedly since then was that I'd be willing to change
my mind, but before I do, I'd have to see crowds of Egyptians in
Tahrir Square burning Israeli flags and chanting "Death to Israel!"
Until that happens, it's almost completely impossible that any
substantial action will be taken against Jews or Israel.

Now let me briefly return to the question of Iran. There was a
widespread mainstream belief that Egypt's revolution would be a repeat
of Iran's 1979 revolution, with the Muslim Brotherhood taking power
and installing Sharia law.

As I wrote in 2011, this was never going to happen because of
significant differences between the two situations: Iran has a
historic fault line between the monarchy and the clerics, and there's
no similar fault line in Egypt; and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was a
very charismatic leader, and was greatly loved by Iran's population.
There has been no similar figure in Egypt today, certainly not Mohamed
Morsi, who is not particularly loved, even by his supporters.

****
**** Egypt's future
****

I wrote in 2011 that there were no major fault line among Egyptians in Cairo, and so
there would be no civil war. In the last few weeks, it appears that
a fault line is developing between pro- and anti-Morsi people.

However, I don't look at it that way. Despite the clashes between the Army
and Muslim Brotherhood supporters, I've little more than political differences
between the masses of people supporting Morsi, and the masses of people opposing.
According to a number of news stories, the two groups have gone out of their
way to avoid confronting each other violently. It there were real animus
between the two groups, there would be a hell of a lot more blood in the streets.

What's really remarkable about the past year was how it proves the basic
Generational Dynamics principle that it's generations of people, not politicians,
that decide great events. In this case, Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim
Brotherhood came to power last year. They took control, gave themselves
dictatorial powers, rewrote the constitution, and imposed Sharia law,
just as many people had predicted that they would. But look what happened!
Morsi's actions were unacceptable to tens of millions of Egyptians, and
now Morsi is gone, and there's no Sharia law. In the end, it was the
masses of people who decided, not a politician.

So my prediction is that there will NOT be a civil war between pro-
and anti-Morsi demonstrators. This political conflict will be
resolved somehow -- I would not predict how -- and life will go on,
with no more than isolated instances of violence. I don't want to belittle
these isolated instances, but my point is that there won't be all out
civil war.

Finally, as I pointed out in 2011, there is one major fault line in
Egypt that has to be considered -- the Egyptians in Cairo versus the
Bedouins in Sinai. (See "12-Feb-11 News -- As Egypt's president Mubarak resigns, tension grows in the Sinai"
.) This is a true, genuine fault line,
headed for a major confrontation, quite likely toward war. And it
won't be war between Israel and Egypt. It will be war with Israel and
Egypt as allies versus the Bedouins, the al-Qaeda jihadists, and
probably even some of the Gazans.

The long-run Generational Dynamics prediction for the Mideast is a new
genocidal war between Jews and Arabs, refighting the genocidal war
between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine in
1948, and the creation of the state of Israel. Two years ago, I wrote
that there's no clear trend that would allow me to predict whose side
Egypt would be on, and that's still true today.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Hosni Mubarak, Iran, Hamas, Gaza, Israel

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*** 29-Jul-13 World View -- Israel agrees to prisoner release, as new Mideast peace talk talks begin

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Jordan's one year old Zaatari refugee camp: 150,000 Syrian refugees
• Israel agrees to prisoner release, as new Mideast peace talk talks begin
• U.S. drone strike kills 6 in Pakistan, despite opposition

****
**** Jordan's one year old Zaatari refugee camp: 150,000 Syrian refugees
****


Zaatari refugee camp - aerial view (AP)

All the worst case scenarios about Syrian refugees coming to Jordan
have been passed -- over and over. The Zaatari refugee camp is now
one year old, and was originally intended to hold 60,000 refuge for a
short time. But of the estimated 650,000 Syrians who have crossed
into Jordan, sometimes 3,000 per day, 350,000 have filtered through
Zaatari and 150,000 live there permanently. Concern is growing that
the "temporary" refugee camp will be there permanently, and that
pollution damage to the main aquifer lying beneath the camp may reach
the "saturation zone" within as little as one year. Ammon News
and Time

****
**** Israel agrees to prisoner release, as new Mideast peace talk talks begin
****

No, that isn't a typo. Mideast peace talks aren't about to begin.
Instead, talks about the terms for peace talks are to begin on Monday
in Washington between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators. The
Palestinians have agreed to attend the peace talk talks after Israel's
cabinet voted on Sunday to release 104 prisoners that are being held
in Israeli jails as terrorists. The decision is extremely
controversial in Israel, and drew hundreds of protesters outside of
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office, with protesters holding
signs with images of victims killed by the prisoners being released.
The prisoners to be released committed their acts prior to the 1994
Oslo peace talks, and they will be released in four groups over the
next nine months, to make sure that the Palestinians won't walk out of
the peace talk talks. Jerusalem Post and U.S. State Dept.

****
**** U.S. drone strike kills 6 in Pakistan, despite opposition
****


Women protest against U.S. drone strikes in Peshawar, Pakistan, in April, 2011 (AP)

A large U.S. drone attack on Sunday killed at least six militants in
Pakistan's tribal area. Four drones hovered above a village before
one fired two missiles at a compound just before sunset, as the
militants were just about to break their Ramadan fast. U.S. drone
strikes have become increasingly rare, because of overwhelming levels
of opposition from the Pakistan public, especially following the U.S.
action that captured Osama bin Laden, considered Pakistan's greatest national humiliation

since 1971. There were 122 drone strikes in 2010, but only 17 so far
this year. The CIA has become far more cautious in its attacks,
limiting them to high-value targets, and avoiding attacks on large
groups of suspected militants based purely on their behavior. It's
thought that Pakistani officials are publicly opposing the drone
strikes, but privately supporting them, at least in limited numbers.
The new Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has said he's opposed to any drone
strikes, but so far has not articulated a clear demand to end them.
AFP and AP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Jordan, Zaatari refugee camp,
Israel, Palestine, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Pakistan, Osama bin Laden, Nawaz Sharif

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*** 30-Jul-13 World View -- Dozens of Pakistan terrorists freed from jail in terrorist attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey and Azerbaijan strengthen anti-Russian ties with military exercises
• Dozens of Pakistan terrorists freed from jail in terrorist attack
• Bankrupt Detroit to seek federal bailout through Obamacare

****
**** Turkey and Azerbaijan strengthen anti-Russian ties with military exercises
****


Nagorno-Karabakh (BBC)

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a very bloody war that ended in 1994
with Armenia gaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in the
middle of Azerbaijan. And relations between Armenia and Turkey have
been extremely bitter over the charges, denied by Turkey, that Turkey
perpetrated a genocide on Armenians in 1915. Add to that, Armenia has
good relations with Russia, a centuries-old historic enemy of Turkey
(Ottoman Empire). So it's not surprising that Turkey and Azerbaijan
carried out joint exercises between July 12 and 28. The major purpose
of the Turkey-Azerbaijan military exercises is to neutralize Armenia's
military cooperation with Russia.

Nagorno-Karabakh remains a simmering open wound in relations between
Azerbaijan and Armenia, and hostilities could resume at any time, with
Russia and Turkey joining in. Jamestown

****
**** Dozens of Pakistan terrorists freed from jail in terrorist attack
****

More than 100 terrorist militants attacked a large prison in northwest
Pakistan late on Monday evening. The objective was to free some 250
convicted terrorists, but apparently only 25-40 were freed. The
attack overwhelmed the local police, who faced superior weaponry of
the militants. The attack was launched by TTP (the Pakistani Taliban)
and the associated group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). I've written a
number of times about LeJ, the group that has vowed that "Our mission
[in Pakistan] is the abolition of this impure sect and people, the
Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every city, every village, every nook
and corner of Pakistan," and have followed through by blowing up
mosques and schools containing Shias, killing hundreds of innocent
women and children. This not the first time when militants have
broken other convicted terrorists out of jail. Nearly 400 prisoners
including militants had escaped on Aril 15, 2012 from Bannu Jail after
an attack by insurgents armed with guns, grenades and rockets.
Dawn (Pakistan) and McClatchy

****
**** Bankrupt Detroit to seek federal bailout through Obamacare
****

Detroit, which filed for bankruptcy July 18, 2013, is pursuing a plan
to shift retirees from city-run health coverage to exchanges under the
Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. If implemented in full, this would
essentially be a $5.7 billion federal bailout of Detroit, eliminating
the amount it owes on retiree health care costs. Many other bankrupt
or near-bankrupt localities, such as Chicago, Sheboygan County, Wis.,
and Stockton, Calif., are going to be watching this Detroit plan
carefully, to see if they can get away with the same thing. Michigan Live


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey,
Russia, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Pakistan, Hazaras, Shias, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ,
Detroit, Chicago, Obamacare

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*** 31-Jul-13 World View -- Mideast peace talks postponed for two weeks after two days

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Level of stock market margin debt in 2013 exceeds 1999 and 2007
• Taliban jailbreak is new humiliation for Pakistan
• Terrorist jailbreaks becoming increasingly common
• Mideast peace talks postponed for two weeks after two days

****
**** Level of stock market margin debt in 2013 exceeds 1999 and 2007
****


Level of margin debt in 2013 exceeds level prior to 1999 and 2007 stock market financial crises

The thing that promotes panics and stock market crashes is not some
major decision by investors en masse to sell everything for
emotional reasons. There may be an initial emotional panic, but what
keeps it going is deleveraging of margin debt causing forced selling.
People who had borrowed money to purchase stocks start receiving
margin calls, forcing them to sell more, causing a vicious downward
spiral. Margin debt reached astronomical levels just before
the 1929 crash, in 1999 just before the Nasdaq crash of 2000,
in in 2007, just before the financial crisis.

In another sign that a stock market crash is approaching, margin debt
has rebounded, and is once again at astronomical levels, higher than
in 1999 or 2007, as you can see from the above graph. As I've written
a number of times in the last four months
(see "23-Jun-13 World View -- The 'experts' scramble to explain the stock market plunge" ),
Wall Street stock prices
have been increasing so quickly that they've become dangerously
parabolic. The recent rapid increase in margin debt explains the
parabolic rise.

For more information on how margin debt works today, see my article on
Interactive Brokers ( How margin accounts work today versus 1929
). You can borrow $1 million at
1.3% interest, and you can use it to invest in the stock market,
presumably in stocks that yield over 5%. That's sounds good when you
listen to their ad, but once your stock going down a little, you very
quickly start receiving margin calls, and you have to sell your assets
at a loss. If that happens to enough investors at the same time --
and the rapid rise in margin debt indicates that it will -- then
forced selling causes a vicious downward spiral. Pragmatic Capitalism

****
**** Taliban jailbreak is new humiliation for Pakistan
****

Monday's jailbreak in Pakistan, after an attack by 100 Pakistan
Taliban (TTP) terrorist militants, freed 248 convicted prisoners, far
more than the "dozens" that we reported
yesterday, including a few dozen hardcore terrorists.
The police who were supposed to be protecting the prison dropped their
weapons and ran when the militants attacked. The police "are corrupt,
lazy and unprofessional," according to a police source.

Even worse, authorities had advance warning of the attack, but did not
act on it, leading to not-very-farfetched speculation that the prison
guards were complicit in the jailbreak. This would not be surprising,
inasmuch as Osama bin Laden lived openly in Abbottabad, Pakistan, for
ten years, with the apparent complicity of Pakistan's army and
intelligence services, resulting in the greatest humiliation
for Pakistan in decades.

Pakistan's new prime minister Nawaz Sharif had promised to end
terrorist attacks by the Taliban by simply negotiating with the
Taliban, possibly freeing some prisoners in exchange for guarantees to
end the terrorist attacks. It's now clear that TTP has decided to
free the prisoners on their own, leaving Sharif no negotiating
leverage.

The whole idea was silly, anyway. The TTP subsidiary,
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (Lej), was never going to agree to end their
multiple terrorist attacks whose objective is to exterminate all Shias
in Pakistan.

The other relevant issue is that Sharif had promised to end U.S.
drone strikes on Taliban militants, in the hope that doing so would
motivate the TTP to stop their terrorist attacks. That was a silly
idea too. BBC and Daily Times (Pakistan)

****
**** Terrorist jailbreaks becoming increasingly common
****

The Pakistan jailbreak was the third in the last week. In Iraq last
week, coordinated terrorist attacks were carried out on the Abu Ghraib
prison, freeing hundreds of prisoners. A few days later, a prison
riot led to the escape of more than 1,000 inmates from a detention
center in Benghazi, Libya. Although there's no evidence that the
three incidents were coordinated, but it seems likely this technique
of breaking convicted terrorists out of jail is becoming increasingly
common, as a way to increase the population of terrorists in these and
other countries. CS Monitor

****
**** Mideast peace talks postponed for two weeks after two days
****

The Washington Mideast peace talk talks
, announced with great fanfare on Sunday by U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry, ended two days after they began. On Tuesday,
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced with great fanfare that
the talks would begin again in the next two weeks in the Mideast, but
he could not name a specific date or whether they would take place in
Israel or the Palestinian territories. In June, Kerry announced the
Afghanistan peace talks with the Taliban, but they collapsed in one day
after they were
announced. BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, stock market, margin debt,
crash of 1929, crash of 2000, crash of 2007,
Interactive Brokers, Pakistan, Taliban, TTP,
Osama bin Laden, Nawaz Sharif, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ,
Iraq, Abu Ghraib, Benghazi, Libya,
John Kerry, Israel, Palestinian territories

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*** 1-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's government demands end to pro-Morsi rallies

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bank Of England helped Hitler loot Czechoslovakia's gold
• Opposition to Greece's bailout grows as 11 billion euro is revealed
• Egypt's government demands end to pro-Morsi rallies
• Afghanistan headed for India vs Pakistan proxy war

****
**** Bank Of England helped Hitler loot Czechoslovakia's gold
****


Hjalmar Schacht (left), Hitler's finance minister, with his close friend Montagu Norman, Governor of the Bank of England (Getty)

After Adolf Hitler's Nazis invaded Czechoslovakia in 1939, the Bank of
England helped Hitler's war machine by transferring gold valued at $1
billion in today's prices from Czechoslovakia's account to Germany's
account, in cooperation with the Bank of International Settlements.
So Britain not only appeased Hitler's Lebensraum territory grabs, but
also the Bank of England continued the appeasement by helping Hitler
loot Czechoslovakia's gold assets. These details came out on
Wednesday when the Bank of England posted 50 year old documents on the
history of the BoE prior to WW II. This story illustrates how much
corruption occurs during a generational Crisis era. I'll leave it to
you, Dear Reader, to reach your own conclusions about Washington in
today's generational Crisis era. Telegraph (London) and Bank of England (PDF)

****
**** Opposition to Greece's bailout grows as 11 billion euro is revealed
****

A new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that
Greece's second bailout will have a funding shortfall of €11 billion
over the next two years. This will not be surprising to any long time
readers, inasmuch as I've been explaining for over two years why these
bailouts will fail with 100% certainty for generational reasons.
Nonetheless, it's amazing how credulous so many people are in the face
of repeated lies and backdowns by eurozone officials, highlighted by
Jean-Claude Jüncker, former chairman of the Eurogroup finance
ministers, who said when caught in one of these numerous lies, "When
it becomes serious, you have to lie."

But now opposition is growing to further bailouts of Greece.
Germany's public has been getting increasingly skeptical, and with her
reelection campaign coming up, chancellor Angela Merkel is being very
cautious about what she says. But now Brazil, whose representative to
the IMF is one of its 24 board members, is openly starting to object.
Paulo Nogueira Batista abstained from approving the latest bailout
payment, and says that Greece's implementation of austerity measures —
conditions of its bailout — has been "unsatisfactory in almost all
areas" and assumptions about growth and debt sustainability "continue
to be over-optimistic." Kathimerini (Athens) and CNN and AP and IMF (PDF)

****
**** Egypt's government demands end to pro-Morsi rallies
****

Despite calls by the government for pro-Morsi Muslim Brotherhood
demonstrators to end their protests, activists have continued their
rallies, and are calling for a new major rally once again after midday
Friday prayers. But now the interim government has ordered the
interior ministry to end the protests. According to Wednesday's
statement from the cabinet:

<QUOTE>"Based on the mandate given by the people to the
state, and in preservation of the country's higher interest, the
cabinet has delegated the interior ministry to proceed with all
legal measures to confront acts of terrorism and road-blocking.

The cabinet has reviewed the country's security situation and has
concluded that the dangerous situation in Rabaa and Nahda Squares,
including the terrorist acts and road-blocking that has occurred,
is no longer acceptable as it constitutes a threat to the
country's national security."<END QUOTE>

Hundreds of protesters, mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood, have
already been killed since the ouster of Mohamed Morsi from the
presidency on July 3. Some reports indicate that Egyptian public
opinion is getting fed up with these Brotherhood protests, and that
with the deaths they're "getting what they deserve." Wednesday's
announcement threatens new clashes and violence, especially on Friday.
al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Afghanistan headed for India vs Pakistan proxy war
****

Since last month's Afghanistan peace talks collapsed within one day
after they were announced with great fanfare by U.S. Secretary of
State John Kerry, Pakistan and India are considering their options as
American troops withdraw. During the 1980s Soviet war in Afghanistan,
Pakistan sided with the group that later became the Taliban, and India
sided with a different anti-Soviet group. Since the 9/11/2001
terrorist attack on American soil, American has pressured India to
reduce its role in Afghanistan, while Pakistan has continued support
for some parts of the Taliban. After America withdraws, India will
have the choice of seeing Afghanistan become a vassal state of
Pakistan, or get re-involved with Afghanistan, risking a proxy war.
Global Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Czechoslovakia,
Adolf Hitler, Bank of England, Bank of International Settlements,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Greece, Jean-Claude Jüncker,
Germany, Angela Merkel, Brazil, Paulo Nogueira Batista,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Taliban

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*** 2-Aug-13 World View -- Russia considers selling arms to Iran as Snowden gets asylum

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia considers selling arms to Iran as Snowden gets asylum
• In financial crisis, Hamas considers asking Iran for support again

****
**** Russia considers selling arms to Iran as Snowden gets asylum
****

On July 9, 2010, United Nations Security Council approved UN
Resolution 1929 imposing sanctions on Iran, including a partial arms
embargo, for continued uranium enrichment. Although Russia voted for
the resolution, which was supported by then-president Dmitry Medvedev,
arms dealers in Moscow were unhappy with it, because they wanted to
sell arms to Iran. Now reports indicate that Russia has offered to
sell Iran an improved version of the S-300VM, also known as
Antey-2500—a long-range, anti-aircraft and medium-range ballistic
missile defense system, in violation of UN Resolution 1929. These
reports come on the same day that Russia's president Vladimir Putin
thumbed his nose at the United States by granting asylum to accused
American criminal Edward Snowden. Jamestown

****
**** In financial crisis, Hamas considers asking Iran for support again
****

The toppling if Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi has been a financial
disaster for Hamas, the governing authority of the Gaza Strip. The
sequence of events was something like this: Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood
is historically linked to Hamas, and Morsi supported Hamas, at least
half-heartedly. But when a coup ousted Morsi, the Bedouins and
jihadists in Sinai, on the border with both Israel and Gaza, became
active, and have been conducting a terror campaign against Egyptian
security forces in Sinai. Egypt, with support from Israel, has
launched a military campaign in Sinai to root out the jihadists. As
part of that campaign, Egypt has shut down the smuggling tunnels
between Gaza and Egypt that Gazans depend on for things like food,
building materials and weapons. In recent months, Hamas has been
earning some $8 million in taxes with smuggled fuel alone, and also
levies a tax of about $5 on every ton of cement. An average of 70,000
tons of cement are smuggled into Gaza every month. According to a
Hamas official:

<QUOTE>"The Gaza Strip has lost around $225 million during
the past month due to the halt of imports, namely, fuel and crude
materials for construction, such as cement, gravel and
steel."<END QUOTE>

Just a few years ago, Hamas had plenty of money and weapons, thanks to
generous support from Iran. But that support dried up after Hamas
rejected the genocidal extermination actions against innocent Arab
women and children in Syria by the psychopathic president of Syria,
Bashar al-Assad, with the support of Iran and Lebanon's bloody Shia
militia, Hezbollah.

Reports indicate that a totally desperate Hamas has gone back to Iran
to ask for help, but Iran responded that Hamas must first revive its
support for both the psychopathic al-Assad and the bloody Hezbollah,
as they kill innocent women and children Arabs in Syria. Spiegel and Al Monitor and Debka


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Iran, Vladimir Putin,
S-300 Missiles, UN Resolution 1929, Edward Snowden,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Hamas, Gaza, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah, Sinai, Bedouins

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*** 3-Aug-13 World View -- Iran's president-elect Rouhani corrects quote on 'removing' Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece's civil servants go on strike over 'mobility scheme'
• Property values plunge 11.6% in Greece
• Spain's unemployment rate to remain above 25% past 2018
• U.S. State Dept. issues travel warning through end of August
• Iran's president-elect Rouhani corrects quote on 'removing' Israel

****
**** Greece's civil servants go on strike over 'mobility scheme'
****


Civil servants on strike on Friday (Kathimerini)

Greece's civil servants union, ADEDY, went on strike on Friday, after
the government published yesterday the names of more than 2122 primary
and secondary school teachers who will be transferred to the new
"mobility scheme," which will cut their salaries and require them to
find other jobs or be fired after 8 months. The teachers will be
joined by some 3,000 municipal police officers, 1,500 administrative
staff from universities and technical colleges, 1,500 public
healthcare workers and 600 staff from various social security funds
and manpower organizations. As part of its commitment in return for
two bailouts, the government has promised to have 12,500 civil service
in the "scheme" by September, and 25,000 by the end of the year.
However, as we reported two days
ago, even with all the committee austerity measures, Greece's bailout
will have a funding shortfall of €11 billion over the next two years.
Kathimerini (Athens)

****
**** Property values plunge 11.6% in Greece
****

Property prices in Greece have plunged 11.3% in the last year, and are
poised to have fallen 40% since 2008. According to a Bank of Greece
survey, a lot of the price collapse is caused by forced selling --
owners, especially of older buildings, who are desperate to sell in
order to cover their obligations. As I've explained
in the past, deflated bubbles, including stock
market crashes, occur not because of emotional reasons, but because of
forced selling. Kathimerini

****
**** Spain's unemployment rate to remain above 25% past 2018
****

An alarming new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
tries to put the best face on Spain's economy, and even congratulates
Spain on implementing a number of austerity programs. But even with
those austerity programs, the report forecasts that Spain's
unemployment rate, which is currently at 27.2%, will remain above 25%
past the year 2018. However, even that figure is based on optimistic
assumptions that the economy will start growing again -- a forecast
that's been made every quarter for several years, and has turned out
to be repeatedly wrong. International Monetary Fund

****
**** U.S. State Dept. issues travel warning through end of August
****

The State Department issued a worldwide alert to U.S. citizens
traveling abroad on Friday, warning that al Qaeda and its affiliates
are planning terrorist attacks that may materialize before the end of
August, and suggesting that North Africa and the Middle East are the
focus of the threat. The alert, which expires August 31, 2013, urges
Americans traveling in that region to be aware of their surroundings:

<QUOTE>"U.S. citizens are reminded of the potential for
terrorists to attack public transportation systems and other
tourist infrastructure. Terrorists have targeted and attacked
subway and rail systems, as well as aviation and maritime
service."<END QUOTE>

As of Friday morning, at least 21 facilities in 18 countries announced
that they will close on Sunday pursuant to the State Department's
guidance, including the U.S. embassies in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq,
Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab
Emirates, Yemen, Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, Mauritania, Sudan
and Djibouti.

The current heightened security posture in the Middle East and North
Africa is a result of the lessons learned from the attack in Benghazi.

Apparently the CIA is threatening anyone with knowledge of the
Benghazi affairs who talks to Congress or the press will lose their
job or face criminal prosecution. The Obama administration has
refused to investigate anyone connected with the Benghazi incident,
apparently for fear of being embarrassed, just as they adamantly
refuse to investigate and prosecute anyone connected to the financial
scandal, since those people are huge donors to the president.

The only person who's gone to jail is the guy who made the video that
the administration originally falsely accused of causing the Benghazi
attacked. It's so wonderful to know that even though freedom of
speech has been put in danger, the person who caused the Benghazi
attack is no longer at large. CBS News and CNN

****
**** Iran's president-elect Rouhani corrects quote on 'removing' Israel
****


Female supporter holding up picture of Rouhani at a June campaign event. Her loose hairscarf is an act of rebellion against the hardliners. (BBC)

Hassan Rouhani won a surprise victory in Iran's presidential elections
in mid-June, and will be taking the oath of office on Saturday. (See
"16-Jun-13 World View -- Iran's elections won by 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani"
.)

Two days ago, Iran's student news agency ISNA had quoted Rouhani as
saying: "The Zionist regime is a wound that has sat on the body of the
Muslim world for years and needs to be removed." ISNA retracted this
quote, and one reporter who has seen video of the actual event says
that the quote was wrong, and the retraction was correct. Here's what
Rouhani actually said:

<QUOTE>"In our region, in the shadow of the occupation of
Palestine and dear Quds, a wound has been sitting on the body of
the world of Islam, and this is a reminder that the Muslim people
have not forgotten their historical right and will stand against
oppression and invasion. ...

In circumstances where the world of Islam is facing problems in
the region, Zionists think that this is an appropriate opportunity
to show a peace-seeking image of themselves while in reality they
continue their invasions and transgressions of the Palestinian
land."<END QUOTE>

On the other hand, at the same event, outgoing president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad said, "I will inform you with God as my witness, a
devastating storm is on the way that will uproot the basis of
Zionism," and added that Israel "has no place in the region."
Jerusalem Post and American Enterprise Institute


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, ADEDY, mobility scheme,
Spain, unemployment, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
U.S. State Department, North Africa, Mideast, Benghazi,
Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Israel, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

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*** 4-Aug-13 World View -- Zimbabwe's 90 year old 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe wins another election

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Zimbabwe's 90 year old 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe wins another election
• Chinese skin is black enough for Robert Mugabe
• Intelligence from Yemen forcing embassy closings

****
**** Zimbabwe's 90 year old 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe wins another election
****


Robert Mugabe

It would be hard to choose a country leader anywhere in the world
who's more vile than Syria's Bashar al-Assad, but Zimbabwe's 90 year
old Robert Mugabe certainly qualifies. Mugabe's actions to transform
Zimbabwe, the breadbasket of southern Africa, into a starving
disease-ridden country are almost beyond belief. (See "'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera."
from 2008.) Mugabe's
neighbors have refused to deal with him because of his stature as an
anti-American anti-Western anti-white 'Liberation Hero," even though
militias affiliated with Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National
Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), operate as de facto enforcers of
government policies and commit assault, torture, rape, extralegal
evictions and executions without fear of punishment.

Now Mugabe has apparently overwhelmingly won a new election for
president, with the official results to be announced later
this week.

There's plenty of evidence that Mugabe's government rigged the
election.

• As many as 1 million out of more than 6 million eligible
  voters were not on voters' lists.
  
• The government printed 2 million more ballots than were
  needed, with no explanation why.
  
• The electoral rolls contained some 2 million centenarians in a
  country where life expectancy is 51. Those 2 million extra ballots
  were presumably used to allow dead people to vote.
  
• The government provided "assistance" to voters, especially in
  strong opposition districts. In one constituency, more than 10,000
  voters out of 17,000 were "assisted," even though Zimbabwe has an
  extremely high 92% literacy rate. The "assistance," according to many
  reports, involved marking the ballot for the voter.

Mugabe's actions are mostly based on the historical enmity of
two tribes -- Mugabe's Shona tribe, and his enemies, the Ndebele
tribe. Genocidal warfare occurred between these two tribes in
previous generational crisis wars -- the Mfecane war that climaxed in
1828, the Matabele Wars that climaxed in 1897, and the Rhodesia civil
war, climaxing in 1979. It was the last war that gave Zimbabwe
independence, making Mugabe the President.

In 1983, to consolidate his hold on power, Mugabe launched "Operation
Gukurahundi" ("The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring
rain"). 20,000 people, almost all of them from the Ndebele tribe,
were tortured, raped and slaughtered.

As recently as the 1999, Zimbabwe was a breadbasket of Africa,
exporting up to 500,000 metric tons of surplus food. By 2003,
Zimbabwe was starving. What happened during those three years was a
Marxist socialist "land reform" program by Robert Mugabe that
confiscated 4,500 white-owned commercial farms and redistributed the
property to his own Shona ethnic group.

Apparently, white farm owners are too evil for Mugabe to tolerate.
It's better just to let people, especially the Ndebele, starve to
death. And if anyone complains, just torture and massacre thousands
of Ndebele, so that there'll be more food for the Shona.

After 2003, more and more Zimbabweans have been dying of starvation,
because Mugabe has destroyed the farm infrastructure. By 2008, the
official rate of inflation was 231 million percent. Zimbabwe was
printing 200 million dollar bills.

****
**** Chinese skin is black enough for Robert Mugabe
****

Zimbabwe's economy has improved since 2008, and there's plenty of
food, as well as fuel for the cars, but it's not because the farms are
producing much more food, or because industry is returning.
It's because the diamond mines are move valuable than ever, and
investors from China are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars
into the country in return for the diamonds and other natural
resources.

And so, white farmers were too evil to be allowed to run the farms,
apparently because they don't have black skin, but Chinese investors
can just come in and take Zimbabwe's national resources. Apparently,
Chinese skin is black enough for Mugabe.

And of course the Chinese have no qualms about supporting any of the
world's most vile leaders, whether Syria's Bashar al-Assad or
Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe. Anyone who thinks that China's president Xi
Jinping is a "nice guy" who would never launch a surprise attack on
the United States should be aware that we're dealing with some of the
sleaziest and most repulsive leaders in the world.

Mugabe's Ndebele opponents are absolutely furious that Mugabe has
rigged another election to get another 5 year term as president. Many
observers expect violence when the official results are announced on
Wednesday. Mugabe's security forces expect violence as well, and so
we may be just a few days away from another Ndebele bloodbath.
CBS News and ZimDiaspora blog

****
**** Intelligence from Yemen forcing embassy closings
****


Sanaa, Yemen (CNN)

Fresh intelligence from Yemen, home of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) has led the U.S. to conclude that AQAP is in the
final stages of planning an attack on U.S. and Western targets, either
in Yemen or throughout the Middle East and northern Africa, between
Sunday and Tuesday. This intelligence has caused the U.S. State
Dept. to issue a global travel alert through the end of August. In
additional, the U.S. is closing 22 embassies and consulates in the
region. Germany, France and Britain are also closing their Yemen
embassies on Sunday and Monday. The UK Foreign Office warned its
citizens to leave Yemen:

<QUOTE>"If you don't leave the country now while commercial
carriers are still flying it is extremely unlikely that the
British government will be able to evacuate you or provide
consular assistance."<END QUOTE>

CNN



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Ndebele, Shona,
Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, ZANU-PF,
China, Xi Jinping, Yemen, Sanaa,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Germany, France, Britain

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*** 5-Aug-13 World View -- Russia sides with Vietnam in the South China Sea dispute

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russian warships dock in Cuba for 'friendly visit'
• Russia sides with Vietnam in the South China Sea dispute
• U.S. Embassy closures extended to Saturday, August 10
• Islamic 'Peace Mobile' smartphone ready for launch

****
**** Russian warships dock in Cuba for 'friendly visit'
****


A 1950s U.S. car passes Cubans waving at the Russian 'Moskva' missile cruiser in Havana on Saturday (AFP)

A surface combatant squadron of the Russian Navy arrived in Cuba on
Saturday for the first time in four years. The Cuban government
announced the fleet was there for a “friendly visit.” The unit
consists of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, missile cruiser
‘Moscow’, the large anti-submarine ship ‘Vice Admiral Kulakov’ of the
Northern Fleet and a number of supply and service ships. The squadron
visited the port of Havana to replenish supplies. The ships were
greeted by an artillery salute, a naval band and a few hundred
onlookers as they arrived in the Bay of Havana.

Cuba's economy was supported by the Soviet Union until it collapsed in
1991. After that, Venezuela took over. With the death of Hugo
Chávez, perhaps Russia will be taking over again. Russia Today

****
**** Russia sides with Vietnam in the South China Sea dispute
****

During a recent visit to Hanoi, Russia's defense minister
General Sergei Shoigu sided with Vietnam and the United States
in the dispute with China over control of the South China
Sea:

<QUOTE>"Russia, like other maritime powers, has a stake in
freedom of navigation. Russia will react to any challenge to this
freedom in the same way that the United States, Japan, and India
have done by asserting Russian rights under international
law."<END QUOTE>

Shoigu is responding to China's claim of "indisputable" sovereignty
over the entire South China Sea, including many regions that have
historically belonged to other countries, including the Philippines,
Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. All these nations, except
Brunei, have troops stationed on various islands in the Spratly
Islands to assert their respective claims. China is demanding that
each of these nations avoid trouble by simply giving up their claims,
and turning the entire region over to Chinese sovereignty. China and
its neighbors are all becoming increasingly nationalistic over these
conflicting claims, and the dispute has become intractable.

Russia is backing up its statements with money. Russia is helping to
revamp Vietnam's centrally situated Cam Ranh port, near key shipping
lanes in the South China Sea, and close to the oil-rich Truong Sa
(Spratly) and Hoang Sa (Paracel) archipelagos. Russia has also agreed
to supply Vietnam with six Kilo-class diesel submarines. This is
being described as "a credible asymmetric counter-poise to China’s
growing naval might in the South China Sea." Eurasia Review

****
**** U.S. Embassy closures extended to Saturday, August 10
****

The U.S. State Department is extending 19 of Sunday's 22 embassy
closures to Saturday, August 10. In addition, the State Department's
worldwide travel alert is continuing to the end of August, warning of
planned attacks by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in the
Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia. According to one House
member, "This threat was so specific as to how enormous it was going
to be and also certain dates were given. It could be in Europe, it
could be in the United States." One reason for the additional days of
closure is that Ramadan ends on Wednesday and Thursday, and the Muslim
weekend is Friday and Saturday, so the embassies can reopen on Sunday
when, presumably, all the excitement will be over. In the meantime,
many parts of the Mideast are bracing for an attack, and Americans are
being strongly discouraged from traveling to the region.

Interpol has issued a global alert related to the recent rash of jail
breaks in Pakistan, Iraq and Libya that we've reported on. Analysts
are mixed in opining whether or not these jailbreaks are connected to
one another, but few believe they're related to the U.S. State
Dept. travel warning. Bloomberg and State Department and CNN

****
**** Islamic 'Peace Mobile' smartphone ready for launch
****


Ad for 'Peace Mobile'

A new Android smartphone targeting Muslims is going to be launched
within the next week. Called the "Peace Mobile," its purpose will be
to reconcile the Quran with modern science, and will come loaded
authentic Islamic apps and software and helps practicing Muslims stay
connected with the Islamic world. According to a press release:

<QUOTE>"People will be able to experience the difference, as
communicating through technology will make life easy and
convenient par excellence while fostering an intimate relationship
with the Creator."<END QUOTE>

The phone will include 50 Islamic applications, 80 hours of video,
hundreds of Islamic wallpaper, 200 Islamic ringtones, and books on
Islam and comparative religion. Advance sales of the smartphone are
said to be huge. Arab News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Cuba, Havana,
Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, Sergei Shoigu,
China, South China Sea, Vietnam, Cam Ranh port,
U.S. State Department, Ramadan, Yemen, Interpol,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Peace Mobile smartphone, Quran

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*** 6-Aug-13 World View -- Fears grow of a next-generation 'underwear bomber'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Fears grow of a next-generation 'underwear bomber'
• AQAP may be planning attack for Wednesday
• Pakistan accused over terrorist attack on Indian Consulate in Afghanistan

****
**** Fears grow of a next-generation 'underwear bomber'
****


Underwear bomber Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab serving life sentence

With a number of American embassies closed because of feared al-Qaeda
attacks, there are unconfirmed reports that the feared attack could
use the next generation of the underwear bomb that was used in the
failed Christmas day bombing in 2009. This and other technologies are
thought to be developed by Ibrahim al-Asiri, a senior terrorist in
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the original developer of
the underwear bomb. One technology is a new liquid explosive that
absorbed into ordinary clothing that becomes explosive once the liquid
dries. Another is a surgically implanted body bomb. It's not thought
that current Transportation Security Administration (TSA) measures can
detect either of these kinds of bombs, though a TSA official says, "As
always, our security posture, which at all times includes a number of
measures both seen and unseen, will continue to respond appropriately
to protect the American people from an ever evolving threat picture."
ABC News

****
**** AQAP may be planning attack for Wednesday
****

There are several reasons why Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
may be planning a spectacular attack on Wednesday, August 7:

• The last day of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, a period
  that has historically seen an increase in terrorist attacks, is
  expected to be August 7.
  
• August 7 marks the 15-year anniversary of the East Africa embassy
  bombings in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The
  simultaneous attacks raised al Qaeda’s profile to the international
  level.
  
• It also marks the 23-year anniversary of the launch of Operation
  Desert Shield. Osama bin Laden, who had returned to Saudi Arabia,
  repeatedly and publicly denounced Saudi Arabia’s dependence on the
  United States military for protection, which led to his exile in
  1992. Bin Laden would issue a fatwa in 1996 calling for American
  troops to leave Saudi Arabia.

American Enterprise Institute

****
**** Pakistan accused over terrorist attack on Indian Consulate in Afghanistan
****

On Saturday, a suicide bomber attack in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, blue
up a marketplace, killed 8 children, killing and wounding dozens of
other Afghans. However, this was actually a foiled terrorist attack
on the Indian Consulate in Jalalabad. According to an Indian
analysis, a range of Indian interests in Afghanistan are being
systematically targeted by Pakistan-based terror groups, such
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Haqqani Network, and Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is directly involved. Afghan
officials are openly blaming Pakistan for attacks on Indian targets.
Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul stated:

<QUOTE>"[Those responsible for the Jalalabad assault] and
their financial, ideological and logistical sponsors must realize
that they cannot shake the close and strong bond of friendship and
partnership between Afghanistan and India through terrorism.
Afghanistan will leave no stone unturned to ensure the safety of
Indian diplomatic personnel and the Afghan Government is
determined to counter the efforts of those inimical to India's
friendship with Afghanistan."<END QUOTE>

India is strengthening its age-old relations with Afghanistan, which
is significantly shaking the Pakistan government, where the hope was
that Afghanistan could be annexed as a vassal state after the 2014
U.S. withdrawal. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, as
I've written many times over the past several years, Afghanistan is
headed for a proxy war between India and Pakistan as part of a major
re-fighting of the genocidal war between Sunni Muslims versus Hindus
and Shia Muslims that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the
Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India. South Asia Terrorism Portal


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab,
Underwear bomber, Ibrahim al-Asiri,
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Transportation Security Administration, TSA,
Ramadan, Desert Shield, Pakistan, India,
Jalalabad, Afghanistan, Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT,
Haqqani Network, Zalmai Rassoul

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*** 7-Aug-13 World View -- U.S. Senators McCain and Graham try to restore U.S. credibility in Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. Senators McCain and Graham try to restore U.S. credibility in Egypt
• Yemenis fear they're the target of an expected terrorist attack
• India accuses Pakistan of involvement in Kashmir attack

****
**** U.S. Senators McCain and Graham try to restore U.S. credibility in Egypt
****


Senators McCain and Graham meet with Egypt's Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Tuesday (Reuters)

At the request of the Obama administration, U.S. Republican Senators
John McCain and Lindsey Graham delivered a message to Cairo on
Tuesday:

• Restore democracy as quickly as possible.
  
• Release ousted president Mohamed Morsi and senior Muslim
  Brotherhood "political prisoners" from jail.
  
• Begin negotiations - "an inclusive political process in which all
  Egyptians are free to participate." According to Graham,
  
  
  <QUOTE>"The people who are in charge were not elected, and
  the people who were elected are now in jail. In a democracy, you
  have to talk to each other. It is impossible to talk to somebody
  in jail."<END QUOTE>
• The July 3 ouster of Morsi was "a coup." (The official
  Administration position is that it was not a coup.)

This comes at a time when the credibility of the United States in the
Mideast, including Egypt, is at an extreme low. Secretary of State
John Kerry announced an Afghan "peace process" that collapsed within a
day; he announced a Mideast peace process that people in the Mideast
consider to be a desperate joke; President Obama has announced one red
line after another in Syria, and did nothing when each red line was
passed, except to announce a new red line; has done nothing to bring
to justice the perpetrators of the Benghazi attacks, although CNN has
found and interviewed at least one perpetrator; and the president who
was greeted with chants of "We love you Obama!" when he spoke in Cairo
in 2009 is now the object of unmitigated fury by the Egyptian people.

President George Bush was widely hated, and was even targeted by a
Hollywood movie (Death of a President) that wishfully portrayed his assassination. But at
least President Bush knew what he was doing and, particularly with
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, managed foreign policy
competently, crowned by the successful surge in Iraq. But President
Obama, who would rather be loved than be competent, and is now
neither, is stumbling from one crisis to another with no apparent
direction, which is not surprising in view of his youth and his
attitude ( "Barack Obama to Boomers: Drop dead!"
.) So it's not surprising that he's
turning to senior Republican politicians to try to help out in Egypt
-- assuming it's not too late. AFP and Al Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Yemenis fear they're the target of an expected terrorist attack
****

When the United States and United Kingdom closed their Mideast
embassies on Sunday, it was for unspecified threats by Yemen-based
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), some time towards the end of
Ramadan on Wednesday. But by Tuesday, the threat seemed to focus
exclusive on Yemen, as diplomats have been fleeing the country for
their safety. Yemenis have reporting seeing a steady stream of
surveillance drones of the capital, Sanaa, and U.S. officials say
that U.S. drones have shot down four al-Qaeda suspects traveling by
car outside of Sanaa. As a result, many Yemenis are fearing the
worst, and that the intended target is more Yemen itself than America.
Time

****
**** India accuses Pakistan of involvement in Kashmir attack
****


Indian subcontinent, showing the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu.

Just days after allegedly Pakistan-supported Taliban terrorists killed
and wounded dozens in a suicide attack targeting the Indian Consulate
in Jalalabad, Afganistan,
allegedly Pakistan-supported terrorists killed five Indian soldiers
late on Monday in the disputed Kashmir region. The government of
India accused Pakistani troops of being involved in the killing,
saying that "The attack was carried out by 20 heavily-armed
terrorists, along with persons in Pakistani army uniform." India and
Pakistan have fought each other in three wars following the massive
genocidal conflict in 1947, so it's not farfetched that India's
accusations are correct.

Pakistani Taliban terror groups have been attacking Indian interests
in both Afghanistan in the west and Kashmir in the east. Indian
analysts fear that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency
is taking advantage of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan to
redirect the Pakistani Taliban away from Afghanistan, to target the
Indian military in Kashmir and Jammu. Dawn (Pakistan) and Times of India


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,
John McCain, Lindsey Graham, John Kerry, Afghanistan,
Benghazi, George Bush, Condoleeza Rice,
Yemen, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Jammu,
Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI,

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*** 8-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's interim government declares end to negotiations with Brotherhood

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia 'disappointed' that Obama cancelled Putin visit
• Mongolia's natural resource riches lost to corruption and foreigners
• China reports human-to-human spread of H7N9 bird flu
• Egypt's interim government declares end to negotiations with Brotherhood

****
**** Russia 'disappointed' that Obama cancelled Putin visit
****


Obama and Putin in June

A spokesman for Russia's president Vladimir Putin says that he's
"disappointed" that President Obama will not meet with him in
September, as previously planned, because of Russia's decision to
grant asylum to Edward Snowden, who is wanted in the U.S. on charges
of espionage. This is just the latest negative incident in relations
between Russia and the U.S. that were supposed to have gotten better
after the U.S. pushed the "reset" button in 2009. However, from the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, America's real enemy in the
coming world war will be China, not Russia. Russia was America's
enemy before and after World War II, but was America's close ally
during the war, and it appears that something like that is happening
again. BBC

****
**** Mongolia's natural resource riches lost to corruption and foreigners
****

Mongolia is one of the wealthiest countries in the world in terms of
raw materials that everyone wants, such as coal, copper, gold, uranium
and rare earth minerals. Under a 2007 deal between Mongolia's
government and Australia's mining giant Rio Tinto, billions of dollars
worth of Mongolian minerals have been shipped to China. Rio Tinto is
making a great deal of money, but Mongolia is not. The situation is
made worse by incompetency and corruption among government employees,
such as the former head of Mongolia's Mineral Resources Authority, who
was sentenced to several years in prison. The result is that tensions
are growing, and Rio Tinto is threatening to shut down operations.
Spiegel

****
**** China reports human-to-human spread of H7N9 bird flu
****

Chinese scientists on Wednesday reported the first likely case of
direct person-to-person transmission of the deadly H7N9 bird flu virus
that has killed over 50 people since March, mostly in China.
Scientists have long feared the virus would mutate into a form that
transmits easily from person to person. However, there's no evidence
that such a mutation has occurred, since person to person transmission
is still "not so effective." Still, in May of this year, the
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services declared H7N9 bird flu a 'significant' public health danger.
Although there's no current pandemic threat, it's feared
that cold weather in the fall and winter will cause a lethal
resurgence of the virus.

H7N9 is not the only pandemic threat of concern these days. The
extremely lethal Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus
(MERS-CoV) has killed 44 people so far, mostly in Saudi Arabia (See
"15-Jul-13 World View -- WHO meets to discuss MERS virus pandemic threat"
) The concern is
that the Hajj, which will bring millions of Muslims from around the
world to Saudi Arabia in October for their once in a lifetime
pilgrimage, will result in the spread of MERS to countries around the
world. AFP

****
**** Egypt's interim government declares end to negotiations with Brotherhood
****


Ousted president Mohamed Morsi and interim president Adly Mansour

In a televised speech on Wednesday, the last day of Ramadan, Egypt's
interim president Adly Mahmoud Mansour said that ongoing attempts to
end violence had failed:

<QUOTE>"Diplomatic efforts ended today. The state gave room
for all necessary efforts to be exhausted in order to urge the
Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters to reject violence, prevent
bloodshed and cease the disruption of Egyptian society by holding
its future hostage. [The Brotherhood and its allies bear] full
responsibility for the failure and what will follow."<END QUOTE>

Mansour did not specify what action will be taken. Al-Ahram (Cairo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Edward Snowden, China, Mongolia, Australia, Rio Tinto,
H7N9 bird flu, MERS coronavirus, Saudi Arabia, Hajj,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Adly Mahmoud Monsour,
Muslim Brotherhood

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*** 9-Aug-13 World View -- Cyprus president announces 'Guaranteed Minimum Income' for all

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North and South Korea may reopen Kaesong Industrial Complex
• Lashkar-e-Jhangvi launches a new horrific terrorist attack in Pakistan
• Greece's unemployment reaches fresh record high, despite tourist season
• Cyprus president announces 'Guaranteed Minimum Income' for all

****
**** North and South Korea may reopen Kaesong Industrial Complex
****


Kaesong Industrial Complex

North and South Korea are preparing to resume negotiations to reopen
the Kaesong Industrial Park. North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un
had shut down the complex in April when he threw his temper tantrum,
threatening to shoot missiles at Japan, South Korea, and America.
Several attempts at talks have collapsed without agreement. The South
has been asking for the North to guarantee it won't block operations
due to non-economic reasons and called on the North to accept
responsibility for the current situation, and recently has begun
taking steps to make the shutdown of Kaesong permanent. Reports
indicate that the North has essentially capitulated on all of the
South's demands.

Kaesong Industrial Complex was built in North Korea in 2004 as a joint
venture between the North and South, and was considered a symbol of
peaceful cooperation until April, when the North Koreans suddenly
withdrew their 53,000 workers from the project. Since the North
refused to negotiate, the South finally withdrew its thousand or so
employees, effectively shutting the complex down. Kaesong was a major
source of hard currency for the North Koreans, tens of millions of
dollars per year, and so the child dictator's temper tantrum was
costing North Korea a great deal of money. The North's capitulation
indicates that even child dictators can learn some harsh lessons.
Yonhap (Seoul)

****
**** Lashkar-e-Jhangvi launches a new horrific terrorist attack in Pakistan
****

The Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP) is taking
credit for a new horrific suicide bombing outside a mosque in Quetta
in Pakistan on Thursday. But the most likely perpetrators are the
offshoot Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), which has recently issued a
statement saying, "Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this
impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every
city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan," and which had
carried out their threat by killing hundreds of Shias and Hazaras, and
wounding thousands, in a long series of terrorist attacks. Thursday's
suicide bomber was kept from entering the mosque and killing dozens of
worshippers by an observant policeman, forcing the bomber to detonate
his bombs outside the mosque, resulting in the deaths of about 30
policemen, including several police chiefs. Dawn (Pakistan) and McClatchy

****
**** Greece's unemployment reaches fresh record high, despite tourist season
****

It continues to be true that Greece's economy is worse than last month
and better than next month. On Thursday, the Hellenic Statistical
Authority (ELSTAT) announced that the country's unemployment rate rose
to a new historic high of 27.6% in May, up from 23.8% a year earlier.
Normally unemployment goes down at the start of the tourist season,
but the current rise can be explained by the widespread use of
apprenticeships for citizens of Eastern European countries, and by
mutually agreed termination of work contracts for employees to collect
unemployment benefits (which, I assume, would be fraud). Kathimerini (Athens)

****
**** Cyprus president announces 'Guaranteed Minimum Income' for all
****

The bar is pretty low for the intelligence of country presidents, and
readers are well aware that I show little patience for stupid
decisions by politicians. But sometimes a politician appears to be so
stupid that you wonder how he can figure out how to get out bed in the
morning.

This brings us to President Nicos Anastasiades of Cyprus, the country
that was saved from bankruptcy in March by an EU bailout, on condition
that 60% of the savings accounts of large depositors (mostly Russian
oligarchs) be confiscated.

Anastasiades announced the complete reform of social policy to provide
a Guaranteed Minimum Income for all citizens, starting in June 2014
(10 months from now), taking into consideration the needs of every
citizen and every household concerning nourishment, clothing,
consumption of electricity and other indispensable items. According
to Anastasiades:

<QUOTE>"Beneficiaries will be all of our fellow citizens who
have an income below that which can assure them a dignified
living, irrespective of age, class or professional
situation."<END QUOTE>

The new social policy includes the following reforms:

• Subsidies for rental payments and mortgage payments.
  
• "Also covered will be unforeseen expenses, which unfortunately
  come up in every household, such as, for example, absolutely necessary
  construction and repairs to houses, municipal taxes, etc."
  
• Payments to unemployed graduates of schools and universities,
  working people with low earnings, and the self-employed who are
  now out of work.
  
• Payments to pensioners with low pensions.
  
• Supplemental payments, through separate allowances, to other
  groups of the population that have certifiable needs, such as, for
  example, paraplegics and the children with special needs and a stack
  of other similar categories.
  
• Payments to any citizen who is "not guaranteed the minimum needs
  for a dignified living in a European Country."

The president said the level of the Guaranteed Minimum Income would be
determined in an objective and scientific way by the Statistical
services, with the International Labor Office playing a catalytic
advisory role.

You'd think that Anastasiades would be embarrassed to say anything so
stupid, but the other trait that politicians have in common, besides
stupidity, is the inability to be embarrassed by anything. Cyprus Mail


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Kaesong Industrial Complex,
Pakistani Taliban, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP,
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ, Quetta, Shias, Hazaras,
Greece, ELSTAT, Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades

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*** 10-Aug-13 World View -- Reports of an Israeli drone strike in Sinai disputed by Egyptians

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Reports of an Israeli drone strike in Sinai disputed by Egyptians
• Russia's Georgia invasion roils Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions
• Dept. of Justice accuses Bank of America of securities fraud

****
**** Reports of an Israeli drone strike in Sinai disputed by Egyptians
****


Egyptian military tanks deployed in Sinai last month (AFP)

One or two large explosions on Friday afternoon in the Sinai region of
Egypt, near the borders of Gaza and Israel, killed four or five
jihadist militants, and wiped out a jihadist radar installation,
according to first reports. Egyptian sources were quoted as saying
that the explosion was caused by a missile attack from an Israeli
drone, launched with permission of the Egyptian army, as part of the
increasingly close cooperation between the two armies against a common
enemy. However, later in the day, an Egyptian army spokesperson
stressed that there's no truth to media claims of an Israeli attack on
Egyptian soil, nor to claims of Egyptian-Israeli coordination.
Al Ahram (Cairo) and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Dept. of Justice accuses Bank of America of securities fraud
****

President Obama's Dept. of Justice has adamantly refused to
investigate and prosecute the criminals who caused the financial
crisis, which is far from over, with the result that no one has gone
to jail for one of the greatest crimes in history. This week's
decision by the Justice Dept. to charge Bank of America with
securities fraud for knowingly selling billions of dollars in faulty
mortgage-backed securities does not change that.

According to William K. Black, who was the senior regulator
investigating the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s:

<QUOTE>"Yes. So this, first, is a civil suit, not a criminal
prosecution. And even in a civil suit, the Department of Justice
has refused to sue any of the senior officers who, according to
this complaint, became wealthy through leading this massive fraud
by Bank of America. ...

The allegation of the nature of the fraud is that Bank of America
knew that it was selling product that was often fraudulent and
was--mortgage product that was often fraudulent and was in any
event of very poor quality, and that it lied in its
representations to Wachovia and the Federal Home Loan Bank of San
Francisco in order to induce them and others to purchase the
alleged best portion of this mortgage-backed security.

And there are some more interesting allegations along the way,
interesting because I think the Department of Justice doesn't
explain how--understand how embarrassing they are to the
Department of Justice. So one of the allegations, for example,
says that Bank of America, after it realized that one of its loan
officers was working with a borrower to commit a fraud, fired the
loan officer, made a criminal referral to the Department of
Justice. That loan officer, former loan officer, is under
indictment; in other words, he's going to be criminally
prosecuted; and that they still--they being Bank of America--still
sold that loan under representations and warranties that it was a
great long, even though they knew it was in fact a product of
multiple frauds. And, of course, the loan blew up and caused
substantial losses.

Now, of course, the question that everyone in the world except the
Justice Department would ask is the complaint goes on to say that
Bank of America employees came under intense pressure from senior
officials at the Bank of America to deliberately make bad loans
and to approve bad loans made by loan brokers, that they were
specifically instructed that their job was not to find fraud, that
their bonus packages depended on approving really crappy
loans. And they got extra big bonuses if they exceeded their
quotas. And the only way to do that was to approve all kinds of
terrible loans."<END QUOTE>

In other words, the Justice Dept. is not prosecuting the real
criminals in order to hide their own complicity in the criminal
activities. And as I've pointed out in the past, these senior
bank officials contributed enormous sums of money to Obama's
reelection campaign, and are immune from prosecution.

There is massive corruption in Washington and on Wall Street and in
the mainstream media. As Hannah Arendt documented in the early days
of Nazi Germany, respectable people are actually gangsters, and
gangsters are treated as respectable people. Reuters and Willam K. Black

****
**** Russia's Georgia invasion roils Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions
****


Nagorno-Karabakh (BBC)

Azerbaijan is arming to the teeth. Armenia is growing increasingly
disillusioned with Russia, its main protector. And the potential for
armed conflict in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region appears higher
than it has been in years. Many of the increased tensions throughout
the Caucasus can be attributed to Russia's decisive victory in its
2008 5-day invasion of Georgia, in support of the separatist region of
South Ossetia, for years a province a Georgia. As a result of that
war, Russia's role as powerbroker in the region was undermined,
according to an analyst:

<QUOTE>"[The war] sent also a signal to other post-Soviet
countries that Russia is willing to use force to implement its
interests. It also undermined Russia's role, to some extent, as a
player which has allies, maybe, in the region."<END QUOTE>

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a very bloody war that ended in 1994
with Armenia gaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in the
middle of Azerbaijan. According to an Azerbaijani politician:

<QUOTE>"The war between Russia and Georgia was, in reality,
an aggression of Russia against independent Georgia -- there is no
doubt. And it is a very dangerous action after the collapse of
the Soviet Union in the Caucasus because it demonstrates that
Russia is the same empire -- very aggressive to all peoples and to
all small nations in the region."<END QUOTE>

Russia tried and failed to mediate between the two countries, but that
attempt failed after the 2008 war. Today, Russia has largely reduced
its role to that of the main arms supplier to both sides. RFERL


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Egypt, Sinai, Gaza,
Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgia,
Bank of America, William K. Black, Hannah Arendt

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*** 11-Aug-13 World View -- Questions growing over Israel's drone attack on Sinai jihadists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's Arihant nuclear submarine ready for sea acceptance trials
• India and Vietnam strengthen military and strategic ties
• Questions growing over Israel's drone attack on Sinai jihadists
• Violence with smugglers increases on Turkey - Syria border

****
**** India's Arihant nuclear submarine ready for sea acceptance trials
****


India's INS Arihant submarine, now nuclear powered

India is celebrating switching on the nuclear reactor on Saturday of
it's new nuclear-powered submarine, the Arihant, which means
"destroyer of enemies" in Sanskrit. The enemies, presumably, are
China and Pakistan. The submarine will initially be armed with K-15
nuclear missiles, with a range of 750 km, to be upgraded to K-4
nuclear missiles, with a 3,500 km range. Once it undergoes 18 months
of extensive sea trials, with Russia's help, India will be joining the
club whose only current members are the U.S., Russia, China, the
U.K. and France, able to launch nuclear missiles from land, air or
sea. Times of India and BBC

****
**** India and Vietnam strengthen military and strategic ties
****

The year 2012 marked the 40th anniversary of the establishment of full
diplomatic relations between India and Vietnam. These two historic
enemies of China are consolidating their activities in the fields of
defense and security, trade and investment, science and technology,
information technology, capacity building and human resource
development, agriculture, education and culture. Two agreements are
particularly important in view of the conflicts between China and its
neighbors in the South China Sea. First, for several years, India and
Vietnam have been jointly involved in oil exploration in the waters
off Vietnam, in a region that has historically belonged to Vietnam.
But this region, along with South China Sea regions historically
belonging to other countries, are now being claimed by China in its
modern "Lebensraum" policy, with the claims backed by military
threats. Which leads to the second agreement between India and
Vietnam: For the first time, India has offered a $100 million credit
line to Vietnam to purchase military equipment. This will be used to
purchase four patrol boats that Vietnam will use to defend its rights
in the South China Sea. Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS)

****
**** Questions growing over Israel's drone attack on Sinai jihadists
****

Yesterday's reports, emerging from Egypt's Sinai region, of an Israeli drone strike in Sinai
have not
been confirmed by either Israelis or Egyptians, but if true would be a
dramatic escalation in the violence in the region, marking the first
time in decades that Israel's air force struck a target on Egyptian
soil. Furthermore, Egypt denies initial reports that it gave Israel
permission for the strike.

Sinai, like Gaza, has become a hornet's nest of terrorist activity,
but unlike Gaza, the vast desert province is part of sovereign
Egyptian territory, placing Israel in an ongoing dilemma on how to
deal with emerging threats. On the one hand is the need to respect
Egyptian sovereignty and maintain the strategically vital peace treaty
with Cairo. On the other is the obligation to defend southern Israel
from the rising terrorist threat.

Whether caused by an Israeli drone strike or not, the explosions
killed five terrorists and a rocket launcher capable of firing
Iranian-made M-75 missiles known as Fajr-5. It's thought that the
current versions of these missiles have an integrated radar system
with a 75 km range, causing Israel to close an airport in Eilat in
southern Israel, near the Sinai border. Jerusalem Post and YNet and
Debka

****
**** Violence with smugglers increases on Turkey - Syria border
****

Turkey's military says that 18 soldiers were wounded on Tuesday when
border troops intercepted a group of almost 3,000 smugglers bringing
diesel fuel from Syria into Turkey. When the confrontation began, the
smugglers set barrels of diesel fuel on fire to keep the troops back,
and the soldiers fired into the air and used tear gas to disperse the
smugglers. Local villagers attacked the troops with stones, Molotov
cocktails and firearms. Smuggling from Syria into Turkey is becoming
big business, with the war leaving Syrian refineries and storehouses
mostly unguarded. Diesel fuel costs four times as much in Turkey as
in Syria. Relief supplies, provided by the international community
for Syrians, are also being smuggled out and sold in southern Turkey.
Zaman (Istanbul) and The National (UAE)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Arihant, nuclear submarine,
China, Pakistan, Vietnam, China, South China Sea,
Israel, Egypt, Sinai, Gaza, Iran,
Turkey, Syria, smuggling

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*** 12-Aug-13 World View -- Darfur fighting spreads as Janjaweed militias spin out of control

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Qaeda takes credit for Iraq's unraveling security chaos
• Siege of Egypt's pro-Morsi supporters may begin on Monday
• Palestinians accuse Israel of sabotaging 'peace process'
• Darfur fighting spreads as Janjaweed militias spin out of control

****
**** Al-Qaeda takes credit for Iraq's unraveling security chaos
****


Remains of Baghdad cafe after being struck by one of a dozen car bombs on Saturday (AFP)

Al-Qaeda in Iraq, which has recently changed its name to the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant (referring to Syria), is taking credit
for a series of car bombs in mainly Shia areas of Baghdad on Saturday
that killed 90 people and wounded hundreds. Attacks have increased in
every month since the withdrawal of American troops in December 2011,
alongside the increasing strength of al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra
in Syria. More than 1,000 Iraqis were killed in bombings and
shootings in July, making it the deadliest month since violence
between Sunni and Shia Muslims peaked prior to President Bush's
military "surge", in conjunction with the Anbar Awakening that drove
out al-Qaeda in Iraq. These new attacks come just weeks after
al-Qaeda in Iraq succeeded through an assault on Abu Ghraib prison to
free hundreds of prisoners, including leading al-Qaeda fighters.

The following is my transcription of a BBC interview with BBC Arabic
correspondent Murad al-Shishani on Sunday:

<QUOTE>"Al-Qaeda in Iraq [AQIR] have been increasing their
attacks every month since the withdrawal of the Americans. We're
expecting a statement from AQIR bragging about this
accomplishment. Since the 2007 Anbar Awakening, AQIR has been
losing influence, but with the crisis in Syria, AQIR has been
given geographic spaces and a recruitment pool. The increases in
attacks in Iraq mean that they have logistic support and manpower
support coming from Syria, from their counterpart jihadist groups.

From Anbar in the western part of Iraq, up to the northwestern
part of Syria in Aleppo, there's a sort of strip there of
ungoverned space that al-Qaeda is working there. AQIR recently
changed name to Islamic State of Iraq and Levant. This geographic
space gives them a recruitment pool, and gives them a strategic
space to hide in and prepare for attacks, as well as to receive
support from the Sunni communities there, on either side of the
border."<END QUOTE>

Al-Jazeera and Washington Times

****
**** Siege of Egypt's pro-Morsi supporters may begin on Monday
****

Media reports from several sources say that Egypt's security forces
will begin dispersal of thousands of pro-Morsi supporters on Monday
morning. The plan for the initial phase, according to unconfirmed
sources, is a siege, where security forces block all entrances to the
protest areas, allowing people out, but not allowing them back in, nor
allowing any food or other supplies in. There have been massive
protests and sit-ins every day since president Mohamed Morsi was
ousted by the army, and held in detention at an unknown location. The
protesters are demanding that Morsi be freed and returned to the
presidency, and that his Muslim Brotherhood party be returned to
power. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Palestinians accuse Israel of sabotaging 'peace process'
****

With Israeli / Palestinian "peace process" negotiations set to resume
on Wednesday, Palestinian negotiators Saeb Erekat and Muhammad
Shtayyeh accused Israel of aiming to sabotage the talks by announcing
plans to build 1,200 more settlement apartments in Jerusalem and in
regions of the West Bank that Israel captured in the 1967 war.
According to Shtayyeh:

<QUOTE>"It is clear that the Israeli government is
deliberately attempting to sabotage US and International efforts
to resume negotiations by approving more settlement units three
days before the first Palestinian – Israeli meeting.

Israel continues to use peace negotiations as a smoke screen for
more settlement construction. The Israeli government is showing
the world that the only way to achieve piece is justice, meaning
end of Israel’s impunity.

Israel has been claiming that they want negotiations without
‘conditions,’ but on the ground is clear that they are the only
ones imposing conditions: to negotiate with settlement
construction, creating new conditions on the ground in order to
pre-empt the result of any negotiations.

We call upon the United States and the rest of the international
community to hold Israel accountable in order to give a chance for
peace."<END QUOTE>

However, Israel says that the new settlements do not have effect on
the peace talks, because they're all in places which, according to
previous agreements, will remain part of Israel. According to Israeli
spokesman Mark Regev:

<QUOTE>"[The construction] in no way changes the final map of
peace.

The construction decided upon in Jerusalem and in the settlement
blocs is in areas that will remain part of Israel in any possible
peace agreement."<END QUOTE>

On Tuesday, Israel will release the first 26 of the 104 prisoners, all
of whom are jailed for terrorist acts committed prior to the 1994
peace talks. Israel has promised to release all 104 over nine months,
provided that the "peace process" negotiations continue. Some
Palestinians are referring to those terms as "blackmail," since they
prevent the Palestinians from walking out of the negotiations before
the nine months are up. Jerusalem Post and BBC

****
**** Darfur fighting spreads as Janjaweed militias spin out of control
****


There are 1.4 million people in Darfur refugee camps

Warfare between the Arab Maaliya and Rezeigat tribes in the Darfur
region of Sudan has been spreading, with hundreds of people killed in
recent weeks. There were 1.4 million people living in refugee camps
at the beginning of 2013, and an estimated 300,000 people have been
displaced from their homes so far in this year's surge of violence.
Two other Arab tribes, the Misseriya and Salamat, announced a
ceasefire two weeks ago after more than 200 people had been killed.

The mainstream press keeps describing the Darfur war as having begun
in 2003, and that's complete nonsense.

Darfur's civil war began as low-level violence in the 1970s as a
fairly standard conflict between farmers and herders. What always
happens is that the herders' animals trample on the farmers' crops,
and then the farmers build fences to block the herders' animals. The
violence worsened over the years, and the conflict transitioned to a
generational crisis war in 2003, with the light-skinned "Arab"
Janjaweed militia herders slaughtering the dark-skinned "non-Arab"
farmers. That's when the United Nations "discovered" Darfur, and
launched a donation-based program to protect the farmers from the
herders. So the farmers were moved into huge refugee tent camps where
they became entirely dependent on aid and donations from foreign
entities.

For a detailed generational analysis of the war in Darfur, as well as
a chuckle or two, see "Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming"
from 2007.

The financial crisis has reduced donations, and starvation is
widespread in the Darfur refugee camps. Furthermore, Sudan's
government is refusing to renew permits for some of the United
Nations' international humanitarian staff in Darfur. And now, the
fighting between the "Arab" tribes indicates that Khartoum is losing
control of the Janjaweed militias.

As I've been writing for years, a generational crisis war is an
elemental force of nature, and has to reach a climax. At some point,
the Janjaweed militias will return to finish the job, slaughtering the
"non-Arab" refugees like fish in a barrel. That will finally end the
Darfur war. AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, Darfur, Maaliya, Rezeigat,
Misseriya, Salamat, Janjaweed militias,
Iraq, Syria, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Jabhat al-Nusra,
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,
Murad al-Shishani, Anbar Awakening, Iraq surge,
Israel, Palestine, Saeb Erekat, Muhammad Shtayyeh,
Mark Regev, Jerusalem, West Bank

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*** 13-Aug-13 World View -- Britain sends warships to Gibraltar over border conflict with Spain

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain sends warships to Gibraltar over border conflict with Spain
• The War of the Spanish Succession keeps coming back
• Your mortgage documents are fake!
• Egypt backs down on 'dispersal' of pro-Morsi supporters

****
**** Britain sends warships to Gibraltar over border conflict with Spain
****


The Gibraltar enclave, a British territory, 2.62 square miles at the tip of Spain (Spiegel)

It's for a previously scheduled naval exercise in the Mediterranean,
but Britain's dispatch of warships to the coast of Gibraltar couldn't
have happened at a more significant time. Gibraltar is located on the
tip of Spain, but it's British territory, thanks to the 1714 Treaty at
Utrecht that settled the War of the Spanish Succession. Since then,
it's been the source of unending tension between Britain and Spain,
but tensions really soared last month when Gibraltar created dumped
cement blocks into the waters around the enclave, in order to prevent
Spanish boats from fishing there. This infuriated Spanish officials,
who retaliated by partially blocking the border checkpoint between
Spain and Gibraltar, making it almost impossible for people to travel
there from Spain, with some officials calling for a return of the
"Spanish Armada" to Gibraltar. Britain is now retaliating back by
threatening legal action, saying that the border controls are a
violation of European Union rules. The Spanish Armada and the British
warships are a show of force, but we don't believe that this will turn
into a shooting war.

Spain has announced that it's going to team up with Argentina, and
take the case to the United Nations, where they'll demand that
Gibraltar be returned to Spain, and that the Falkland Islands be
returned to Argentina. Gibraltar Chronicle and Spiegel

****
**** The War of the Spanish Succession keeps coming back
****

Most people, I've discovered, have never heard of the War of the
Spanish Succession (1701-14), but it's one of the most significant
wars of the last millennium. WSS made Scotland a part of Britain, but
as we wrote last year (see "16-Oct-12 World View -- England and Scotland agree to a referendum on Scottish independence"
), that agreement may now
be unraveling.

You can enumerate just a few "world wars" that affected all of western
Europe in the last few centuries. There was the Spanish Armada war
against Britain that climaxed with Spain's defeat in 1582, and then
the Thirty Years War that climaxed in 1648 with the Treaty at
Westphalia (called the "Peace of Exhaustion"), settling the boundaries
between European countries.

The War of the Spanish Succession broke out 52 years after the treaty
at Westphalia was signed. It was triggered when the King of Spain
died childless in 1700, and because of numerous marriage alliances, it
finally turned out that Spain was bequeathed to the grandson of the
King of France, who then became King of Spain, and so Spain became
allied with France, where previously it had been allied with Germany.
This led to the WSS "world war," with the two sides led by England and
France. England miraculously and unexpectedly defeated the French
army in the Battle of Blenheim in 1704. France's final defeat came in
August 1709, at the battle of Malplaquet, the bloodiest battle in
Europe for the entire eighteenth century.

Once again, the boundaries of the European countries were set by
agreement, this time by the Treaty at Utrecht in 1714, and one of the
spoils of war was Britain's acquisition of Gibraltar from Spain. The
treaty held until the next "world war," Napoleon's conquest of Europe
following the French Revolution, almost a century later. But the
agreements coming out of the War of the Spanish Succession that made
both Scotland and Gibraltar part of Britain are both still being
disputed today.

****
**** Your mortgage documents are fake!
****

Thanks to information from a newly unsealed lawsuit, it turns out that
many people reading this articles have mortgages with banks that can't
prove ownership of your property. We haven't written about
"robo-signing" for a couple of years, but it now turns out that the
reason that robo-signing was used was because the banks wanting to
foreclose properties could not prove they had the right to foreclose,
and so they used robo-signing to forge fraudulent documents, and then
lied to the courts and government about them.

Tens of millions of home mortgages worth trillions of dollars have no
legitimate underlying owner that can establish the right to
foreclose. This hasn’t stopped banks from foreclosing anyway with
false documents, and they are often successful, a testament to the
breakdown of law in the judicial system. Homeowners trying to sell
their properties find that their properties are impossible to sell.

Banks who committed this fraud include: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo,
Citigroup, Bank of America, HSBC, the Bank of New York Mellon,
Deutsche Bank and US Bank.

As usual, the Obama administration adamantly refuses to investigate
and prosecute these crimes, because these banks are all big donors to
Administration campaigns and programs, with the result that no one has
gone to jail for trillions of dollars of criminal fraud that caused
the financial crisis. The level of criminality going on in Washington
is incredible, and nobody gives a shit. That's why I keep referring
to Hannah Arendt and Nazi Germany, where respectable people were
actually gangsters, and gangsters were treated as respectable people.
Salon

****
**** Egypt backs down on 'dispersal' of pro-Morsi supporters
****


How do you 'disperse' tens of thousands of protesters in a sit-in?

Egypt's interim government backed down on plans to "disperse" tens of
thousands of protesters in a sit-in in two large squares in Cairo.
The protesters are demanding that ousted president Mohamed Morsi, who
has been held in detention at a secret location since July 3, be
released and restored to the presidency, and that his Muslim
Brotherhood government be restored to power. No reason was given for
backing down, but various conjectures have been put forth: the
U.S. pressured them to stand down; or it's a strategy to confuse the
protesters; or the "dispersal" will occur later when the element of
surprise is available; or some people hope that negotiations are still
possible; or some people fear that the violence will end up killing
hundreds of people. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Foreign Policy


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Spain, Gibraltar,
Argentina, Falkland Islands, Treaty of Utrecht,
War of the Spanish Succession, Scotland,
Spanish Armada, Thirty Years War, Treaty at Westphalia,
Battle of Blenheim, Battle of Malplaquet,
JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo,
Citigroup, Bank of America, HSBC, Bank of New York Mellon,
Deutsche Bank, US Bank, Hannah Arendt,
Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood

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*** 14-Aug-13 World View -- Thousands of Palestinians celebrate with fireworks as Israel releases 26 prisoners

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of Palestinians celebrate with fireworks as Israel releases 26 prisoners
• Israel's 'Iron Dome' anti-missile system intercepts Sinai rocket
• China's propaganda program frightens opponents and stirs domestic nationalism

****
**** Thousands of Palestinians celebrate with fireworks as Israel releases 26 prisoners
****


Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas welcomes the released Palestinian prisoners on Tuesday (AFP)

Israel on Tuesday released 26 Palestinians from prison as its first of
four such releases as one of the conditions for "peace process"
negotiations with the Palestinians to proceed. The 26 were welcomed
as heroes in the West Bank and Gaza, where thousands of Palestinian
well-wishers cheered their arrival as fireworks lit the sky. The 26
have all been prisoners since before the 1994 Oslo peace agreement,
and had been convicted of crimes such as murder or terrorism.
Relatives of the Israeli victims held protests all day, and some
protesters tried briefly to block the buses from leaving. The "peace
talks" between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators are scheduled to
begin on Wednesday. AP

****
**** Israel's 'Iron Dome' anti-missile system intercepts Sinai rocket
****

With terrorism increasing in Egypt's Sinai region, which is on the
border with both Gaza and Israel, concerns have been growing of rocket
attacks on Israel from Sinai. On Tuesday, terrorists in Sinai fired
rockets into Israel, targeting the southern city of Eilat. At least
one rocket was intercepted by Israel's "Iron Dome" anti-missile
system. No missiles struck Eilat. The Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis jihadi
group claimed credit for launching several Grad missiles, blaming the
attack on last week's never-confirmed missile strike on Sinai
terrorists by an Israeli drone. Jerusalem Post and Reuters

****
**** China's propaganda program frightens opponents and stirs domestic nationalism
****

During crises earlier this year between China and the Philippines over
the Scarborough Shoal, and between China and Japan over the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, the Chinese media contained regular
appearances of People's Liberation Army (PLA) figures making
threatening and hawkish statements. While some China analysts called
these remarks "reckless statements, with no official authorization,"
they were remarkably effective. On the one hand, they stoked Chinese
nationalism, leading nearly 80% of the Chinese people to support
military action and war against the Philippines for the latter's
"provocations." On the other hand, they forced other countries to
accept a new status quo: the Philippines backed down completely and
ceded the Scarborough Shoal to Chinese ships, while the Japanese
backed down partially, forced to accept almost daily confrontations
with Chinese patrol boats around the Senkaku Islands. Although not
official Chinese policy, the PLA's "hawkish faction" appear integral
to Chinese handling of international conflict. Jamestown


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas,
West Bank, Gaza, Iron Dome, Sinai, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis,
China, People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu

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*** 15-Aug-13 World View -- Hundreds of casualties in clashes in Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hundreds of casualties in clashes in Egypt
• Egypt declares curfew and month-long state of emergency
• Mohamed ElBaradei resigns from Egypt's government over violence
• Egypt's chaos further muddles U.S. Mideast foreign policy
• North and South Korea agree to reopen Kaesong industrial complex

****
**** Hundreds of casualties in clashes in Egypt
****


Egyptian security forces clear a Muslim Brotherhood sit-in in Cairo (AP)

Egypt's Interior Ministry is saying that almost 100 people were killed
and hundreds injured in clashes between the security forces and Muslim
Brotherhood (MB) supporters on Wednesday, while MB activists put the
numbers at triple that figure. After six weeks of sit-ins by tens of
thousands of supporters, following the July 3 ouster of president
Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government, the new army-led
interim government finally carried through on its repeated threats to
"disperse" the protesters.

Others are complaining that angry mobs of MB supporters attacked and
torched a number of Christian churches, monasteries, schools and shops
in Alexandria, Suez and other cities.

MB activists are claiming that deaths were all caused by live fire by
the Army and police. The Interior Ministry says that, although almost
all MB protesters were peaceful, some fired at the police from hidden
positions, in order to provoke return fire.

Most reports point to polls that show that most of the population are
sick and tired of the MB. They got into office a year ago, governed
the country as dictators, imposing a version of Sharia law that few
wanted, while the country's economy got worse and worse. And then,
when Morsi was ousted, they refused every compromise, and created
political chaos.

However, the MB is still an extremely powerful force in Egypt's
politics, with some 30% of the population belonging to the
organization. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

****
**** Egypt declares curfew and month-long state of emergency
****

Egypt's people are quite used to living under a state of emergency.
The last one was declared in 1981 after the assassination of president
Anwar Sadat, and was not lifted until Hosni Mubarak was deposed two
years ago. Furthermore, the Muslim Brotherhood was an illegal
organization under Mubarak, and so the current status of its members
is familiar territory to them. In fact, probably the reason why they
went so crazy with power when Mohamed Morsi was president is that they
didn't know how to handle it.

So today's government declaration of a month-long state of emergency
is quite familiar to Egyptians. What's new today is that the
government has also imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew on Cairo and 10
other provinces, allowing the army to arrest and detain indefinitely
anyone who violates the curfew. Anti-government activists in Cairo
claimed police and soldiers aided by self-styled "popular committees"
of civilian vigilantes armed with clubs and machetes enforced the
curfew, searching cars and checking identity cards of people passing
through makeshift checkpoints made of tires and concrete blocks.
Reuters

****
**** Mohamed ElBaradei resigns from Egypt's government over violence
****

Mohamed ElBaradei, who won the Nobel Peace Prize several years ago for
his work with the United Nations atomic energy agency, had joined the
government at the request of the Army, as a moderate-liberal-secular
voice. On Wednesday he resigned, saying:

<QUOTE>"It has become hard for me to keep bearing
responsibility for decisions that I did not approve of and warned
against their consequences. I cannot be responsible before God
for a single drop of blood.

It was hoped that the people's uprising of 30 June would steer the
country back into the path of achieving the revolution's goals
after the dominating, exclusionary policies practiced by the
groups that ruled the country for one of its worst years. This is
what drove me to accept a government position, but things took a
different direction where polarization and division reached more
dangerous levels and the social fabric faced disintegration.

I believed that there were acceptable peaceful alternatives to
resolve our societal confrontation that could have stood a chance
at achieving national reconciliation. Violence begets violence,
and mark my words, the only beneficiaries from what happened today
are extremist groups."<END QUOTE>

Several analysts said that the interim government should simply have
allowed the sit-in to continue for as many weeks or months as they
wanted, with no need for violence. Al-Ahram

****
**** Egypt's chaos further muddles U.S. Mideast foreign policy
****

Secretary of State John Kerry made a surprise visit to the
State Dept.'s press briefing room on Wednesday, and read
a statement excerpted below:

<QUOTE>"The United States strongly condemns today’s violence
and bloodshed across Egypt. It’s a serious blow to reconciliation
and the Egyptian people’s hopes for a transition towards democracy
and inclusion. ...

Today’s events are deplorable and they run counter to Egyptian
aspirations for peace, inclusion, and genuine democracy. Egyptians
inside and outside of the government need to take a step
back. They need to calm the situation and avoid further loss of
life. ...

Violence is simply not a solution in Egypt or anywhere
else."<END QUOTE>

This is the kind of banal silliness that we've come to expect from
Kerry, at a time when America's credibility in the Mideast is at an
all time low. Last month, Kerry announced an Afghan "peace process"
that collapsed within a day; his Mideast "peace process" is a joke;
the Administration's handling of the violence in Syria, setting one
"red line" after another, and then doing nothing when it's crossed, is
a farce; and then there's Benghazi.

Kerry's statement is being viewed with contempt in Egypt because it
say anything about the one question that everyone wants to know: Is it
the opinion of the Obama administration that the July 3 ouster was a
"coup," or not? If it was a coup, then American law requires that aid
to Egypt be terminated. Egyptians on both sides are furious with
Obama for not taking sides, though I would argue that not taking sides
is the right thing for Obama to do at this time. State Department

****
**** North and South Korea agree to reopen Kaesong industrial complex
****

North and South Korea agreed in principle Wednesday to reopen their
joing Kaesong industrial complex, after it was closed in April by a
temper tantrum from North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un.
However, no date was set for the reopening. North Korea had wanted to
reopen Kaesong earlier, without any conditions, because it's a
lucrative source of hard currency for the North. South Korea
apparently at least got some sort of promise from the North that they
would not shut it down again "under any circumstances." At the
insistence of the South, they also agreed to allow foreign investors
to operate in Kaesong, because the South believes that the presence of
foreign companies will make it more difficult to shut it down again.
Yonhap (Seoul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Mohamed ElBaradei, John Kerry,
North Korea, South Korea, Kaesong Industrial Complex,
Kim Jong-un

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*** 16-Aug-13 World View -- Car bomb in Hezbollah's Lebanon stronghold kills 20

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Car bomb in Hezbollah's Lebanon stronghold kills 20
• Egypt and Turkey recall ambassadors, as countries pick sides
• Good news is bad news on Wall Street

****
**** Car bomb in Hezbollah's Lebanon stronghold kills 20
****


Fire engines at the scene of Thursday's explosion in Beirut (Reuters)

A Sunni Muslim Islamist group called "the Brigades of Aisha" claimed
responsibility for a large car bomb that killed 20 people, injured
hundreds, and damaged numerous cars and buildings in Beirut, Lebanon,
on Thursday, in a stronghold of the Iran-linked Shia Muslim terrorist
group Hezbollah. The Islamist group issued a video statement
addressed to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah:

<QUOTE>"This is the second time that we decide the place of
the battle and its timing...And you will see more, God
willing."<END QUOTE>

This was the largest in a series of terrorist acts directed at
Lebanon's Hezbollah group, ever since Nasrallah publicly announced
that Hezbollah would actively fight side-by-side with Syria's
psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad in his quest to exterminate
Sunni women and children in Syria. Every since Nasrallah made his announcement
in early May, sectarian
tensions pitting Sunnis and Shias against each other have surged
throughout the Mideast. Al-Qaeda is taking credit for the unraveling security chaos
in Iraq.
Reuters and BBC

****
**** Egypt and Turkey recall ambassadors, as countries pick sides
****

The official death count by Egypt's Interior Ministry from the clashes
that followed Tuesday's "dispersal" of Muslim Brotherhood supporters
has now risen about 600. The coup ousting Egypt's Islamist president
Mohamed Morsi has been a bitter disappointment for Turkey's prime
minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led an Islamist government in
Turkey for many years. And now Erdogan is harshly criticizing the
Tuesday's violence and the security forces' "bloody intervention":

<QUOTE>"We strongly condemn that the Egyptian administration
has once again resorted to violence against peaceful
demonstrations despite all warnings.

The incumbent administration which intervened in the democratic
and civilian regime through a coup d'état is responsible for the
loss of lives of the brotherly Egyptian people since the 30th of
June. [The latest developments are a] great blow to hopes for
Egypt to return to democracy through an inclusive transition
process."<END QUOTE>

On Thursday, Turkey withdrew its ambassador from Cairo "for
consultations," and Egypt quickly followed by withdrawing its own
ambassador from Ankara.

Just as the population of Egypt is itself bitterly divided, countries
are lining up on different sides. The United Arab Emirates (UAE)
foreign ministry statement said:

<QUOTE>"The UAE ... re-affirms its understanding of the
sovereign measures taken by the Egyptian government after having
exercised maximum self-control. What is regretful is that
political extremist groups have insisted on the rhetoric of
violence, incitement, disruption of public
interests."<END QUOTE>

As we've recently reported,
Egypt
has been promised $12 billion in aid from Gulf Arab states that don't
like or trust the Muslim Brotherhood -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab
Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait.

This is significant for American foreign policy. Washington
is debating whether to threaten to cut off American aid to
Egypt, in order to gain leverage. But America's $1.3 billion
in aid is only a small fraction of the aid they're getting from
the Arab states, which means that America really doesn't have
much leverage at all.

President Obama has managed to infuriate and alienate just about every
faction in Egypt. The Islamists are furious because he doesn't
support Morsi, who was the first democratically elected president in
Egypt's history. The secularists are furious because Obama appears to
be taking the side of the MB supporters by criticizing the
government's violence, but ignoring the violence by MB activists
against police and Christian churches.

President Obama's Mideast policies have been a disaster at every turn,
as we've been documenting, and Egypt is no exception. Why is
President Obama lecturing and moralizing to the Egyptian people on a
regular basis? Why is President Obama constantly interfering in
Egypt's politics? How did the Administration get into such a mess in
Egypt? In my opinion, the disaster began with President Obama's
"apology tour" speech in Cairo in 2009, where he made promises that
could never be kept, with the result that he has no credibility left
with anyone. Like many young Gen-Xers, President Obama is absolutely
certain that he knows absolutely more than anyone else in the world,
and rather than take some advice from his elders, he goes off and
makes one mistake after another. Daily News Egypt and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Good news is bad news on Wall Street
****

Some analysts are blaming Thursday's 225 point stock market plunge on
a relatively good unemployment data on Thursday morning. The
reasoning is that better unemployment data means that the Federal
Reserve will begin to "taper" its monthly $85 billion quantitative
easing, which is the only thing holding up the stock market. As I've
said in the past, it's like we're all watching a dreadful horror
movie, but we're locked in the movie theatre and can't get out.
Washington Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut, Hezbollah,
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Brigades of Aisha,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iraq,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Wall Street, Federal Reserve, quantitative easing, tapering

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*** 17-Aug-13 World View -- U.S. and Philippines make military plans to counter China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. and Philippines make military plans to counter China
• Dozens of churches burned and looted in Egypt's 'Friday of Rage'

****
**** U.S. and Philippines make military plans to counter China
****


Philippine (left) and U.S. (right) troops conduct joint live fire exercises in Philippines in April (AFP)

Government officials from the Philippines have begun negotiations with
the United States over increasing the presence of the U.S. military in
the Philippines. The U.S. will deploy aircraft, ships, troops and
equipment in civilian and military facilities in the Philippines.
According to Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary Carlos Sorreta:

<QUOTE>"There is a sense of urgency in getting this agreement
through...There are things that we need quite urgently that they can
help. For example, building our capacities for being aware of
developments in the region, watching movements, projecting
movements in our part of the world including the [South China Sea]
... It’s all that and more.

Right now we desperately need this kind of awareness in this part
of the world."<END QUOTE>

These talks are generating a great deal of controversy in the
Philippines. U.S. bases in the Philippines were forced to
close in 1992, and some Filipinos strongly oppose anything that
looks like a return.

According to a statement by the Communist Party of the Philippines,
the negotiations are nothing but a "masquerade":

<QUOTE>"The plan to grant the US greater military access to
local ports and infrastructure and extending rights to set up its
own facilities has long been agreed upon by the Aquino government
and the US military.

Considering that the US has long been granted access by the Aquino
regime, the current round of negotiations will likely result in
allowing the US to have exclusive access to certain facilities,
which is a step further in formally allowing the return of the US
military bases."<END QUOTE>

However, these concerns are being blown away by China's aggressive
behavior in the South China Sea, which it's using its vast military
power to follow a "Lebensraum" policy and take possession of islands
belonging to other countries. Last year, China sent warships to
Scarborough Shoal, which is Philippine territory, and annexed it.
Philippines officials have begun a military buildup to allow them to
confront China militarily, and negotiations with the U.S. are said to
be a temporary measure for protection of the country's sovereignty
until it improves its own military capability. ABS-CBNnews (Manila) and Philippine Star

****
**** Dozens of churches burned and looted in Egypt's 'Friday of Rage'
****


Egyptians enjoy the beach while fires and riots burn in the background

Dozens were killed and hundreds were injured in Egypt on Friday during
the "Friday of Rage" called by the Muslim Brotherhood to protest the
carnage earlier this week when hundreds of people, mostly in the
Muslim Brotherhood, were killed in confrontations with security
police. Some 32 churches have been burned or looted in the violence
since Wednesday, mostly in the upper Egypt province of Minya, which
has a history of sectarian tensions. Al-Ahram (Cairo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Carlos Soretta,
China, Lebensraum, Scarborough Shoal,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood

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*** 18-Aug-13 World View -- 'Explosive' outbreak of polio spreading in Somalia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Concerns raised about a possible civil war in Egypt
• 'Explosive' outbreak of polio spreading in Somalia

****
**** Concerns raised about a possible civil war in Egypt
****


Fighting in Cairo (AP)

Dramatic videos were broadcast on Saturday of Egyptian security forces
hiding behind tanks shooting and killing unarmed protesters with their
hands up, further polarizing the country after almost 1,000 people
have been killed in the last week in clashes between security forces
and Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters. Although most MB supporters
are protesting peacefully, some reports are saying that some activists
are stockpiling weapons in preparation for a major battle. Egypt's
interim government on Saturday threatened to dissolve the Muslim
Brotherhood organization entirely, and seize its property and assets,
calling it a terrorist organization. However, attempting to
dissolve MB would not end the protests and riots, and might
make them worse.

Many politicians are expressing concern that Egypt is headed for a
civil war, and they're using Syria as a comparison. But from the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, Egypt and Syria are completely
different cases.

Syria is in a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s),
with plenty of survivors who have vivid memories of the 1982
bloodbath when tens of thousands of people were slaughtered
in fighting between Sunnis and Alawites in the city of Hama.
These survivors do not want to see anything like that happen
again, and the war in Syria would have fizzled long ago
if it weren't for the actions of the psychopathic president
Bashar al-Assad, supported with massive heavy weapons shipments
from Vladimir Putin, the psychopathic president of Russia.

Egypt is in a generational Crisis era. There is no inhibition
of the kind felt by the survivors in Syria. A full-scale
crisis civil war is a real possibility in Egypt.
BBC

****
**** 'Explosive' outbreak of polio spreading in Somalia
****


Somalia

With the al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group al-Shabaab blocking
international aid workers for vaccinating Somalians against polio, an
"explosive" outbreak is now occurring. According to the United
Nations:

<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]The fact that [over 100] children show symptoms of
paralysis means that there are probably thousands more with the
virus, who do not have symptoms, but are capable of spreading
it."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]

Polio is highly infectious, exacerbated by poor sanitation and a lack
of clean water. It invades the nervous system, and can cause total
paralysis in a matter of hours. The disease is spreading through
regions of Somalia controlled by al-Shabaab and various warlords, and
is also spreading to the almost half a million Somalia refugees in
camps in Kenya. On Wednesday, medical charity Médecins Sans
Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) closed its programs in
Somalia after 22 years because of repeated terrorist attacks and
murders by al-Shabaab. Polio remains endemic in three other countries
-- Nigeria, Pakistan, and Afghanistan -- mostly because al-Qaeda
linked terrorist groups refuse to allow vaccination programs,
sometimes claiming that they're a secret plot to sterilize Muslims and
prevent more Muslim children. BBC and Middle East Online


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Syria, Hama,
Somalia, al-Shabaab, polio, Médecins Sans Frontières,
Nigeria, Pakistan, Afghanistan

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