Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

With the al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group al-Shabaab blocking
international aid workers for vaccinating Somalians against polio, an
"explosive" outbreak is now occurring.

Wow, after the CIA ran an assassination program in central asian woglandia under the cover of providing vaccinations to children, who could ever have guessed* that other little brown children would suffer from the suspicion that would necessarily greet any other such identical offers to "help sick children". I mean, it's a totally unforseen consequence! Or alternately, it has nothing whatsoever to do with a consequence-free operation! Whichever helps you sleep better at night!

----
*aside from, you know, every single thinking person with a hint of decency in them. But to be fair, in many circles that's a near-empty set.

*** 19-Aug-13 World View -- More on the Generational Dynamics analysis of Egypt's crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A relatively quiet day in Cairo - only 36 deaths
• More on the Generational Dynamics analysis of Egypt's crisis

****
**** A relatively quiet day in Cairo - only 36 deaths
****


Downtown Cairo on Friday (AFP)

Sunday was a relatively quiet day in Egypt, after a week of clashes
between security forces and Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters that
resulted in almost 1,000 deaths. The Muslim Brotherhood called off
several planned protest marches on Sunday, rather than risk additional
clashes with the police. The major event of the day occurred when at
least 36 Muslim Brotherhood supporters were killed by security forces
in a gunfight when they tried to escape from a prison convoy as they
were being transported to jail. Al-Jazeera

****
**** More on the Generational Dynamics analysis of Egypt's crisis
****

I received a couple of inquiries about the statement I wrote yesterday
that "A full-scale
crisis civil war is a real possibility in Egypt." I was unclear in
writing this sentence. I was not attempting to predict a civil war
between Muslim Brotherhood (MB) supporters and their opponents. I was
only attempting to contrast Egypt, where a crisis civil war is a
possibility, with Syria, where a crisis civil war at this time is
definitely not.

The reason for the inquiries is that the statement appeared to
contradict my recent article, "28-Jul-13 World View -- Generational Dynamics analysis of the crisis in Egypt"
in which I wrote, "So my prediction is that
there will NOT be a civil war between pro- and anti-Morsi
demonstrators."

This is still my prediction, though it's worth pointing out that I
make this kind of prediction with "only" 80-90% probability. My
record on making predictions in the last ten years has been the best
in the world, and I still challenge anyone to find a journalist,
analyst, web site or politician with anything close to the predictive
success of Generational Dynamics. (For more on the mathematics behind
Generational Dynamics forecasting, see my 2009 paper: "International business forecasting using System Dynamics with generational flows." (PDF))

So let's look more closely at the situation in Egypt, and see if it's
reasonable to expect a crisis civil war between the members of the
Muslim Brotherhood, versus their opponents.

In order to have a crisis civil war, the country has to be in a
generational Crisis era (which Egypt is, and Syria is not). And there
has to be a hard fault line that separates the two groups that will be
fighting each other.

What do I mean by a "hard fault line"? The major criterion is that
your membership in each of the conflicting groups is decided at birth,
and there's no way, in most cases, to "switch sides."

So, for example, the American Civil War was found along a geographic
fault line that separated the North from the South, and in those
days it was rare for Northerners and Southerners to mingle.

The 1994 Rwanda civil was fought between two ethnic groups -- the
Hutus and Tutsis. In that war, a man might get up in the morning,
grab a machete, go to his neighbor's house next door, kill and
dismember the men and children, rape the wife, and then kill and
dismember her. That's the kind of thing that happens in a crisis
civil war.

In the Bosnian civil war of the early 1990s, there were both ethnic
and religious differences between the Christian Serbs and the Muslim
Croats. In her book, World on Fire, here's how author Amy Chua
describes the Bosnian war:

<QUOTE>"In the Serbian concentration camps of the early
1990s, the women prisoners were raped over and over, many times a
day, often with broken bottles, often together with their
daughters. The men, if they were lucky, were beaten to death as
their Serbian guards sang national anthems; if they were not so
fortunate, they were castrated or, at gunpoint, forced to castrate
their fellow prisoners, sometimes with their own teeth. In all,
thousands were tortured and executed."<END QUOTE>

In Burma (Myanmar) today, you can easily see a full-scale crisis civil
war building between the Buddhists and the Muslims. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
.) That's going
to explode into a major bloodbath before too much longer.

Now, I just don't see anything like that building between the pro- and
anti-MB Egyptians. Except for isolated incidents, I don't expect to
see masses of pro-MB Egyptians raping and mutilating and dismembering
masses of anti-MB Egyptians, or vice-versa. The fighting and
massacres so far has still been mainly between civilians and security
forces, not between civilians and civilians.

A web site reader sent me a link to a Feb 2012 article that talks about a supposed American-Zionist plot
to partition Egypt into four separate countries. I read through the
article, hoping to find some evidence that there were significant hard
fault lines within Egypt that might lead to such a partitioning, but
it turned out that the accusations were just fatuous nonsense, as far
as I could tell.

One might argue that there are hard fault lines between Egyptians on
the one hand and Jews and Coptic Christians on the other hand, but
except for isolated incidents we've seen little animosity between
these groups. The one hard fault line that I've seen is with Bedouins
in Egypt's Sinai.

And that's why I predict, with 90% probability, that there will not be
a full-scale crisis civil war between pro- and anti-MB Egyptians. I'm
willing to change my mind, but only when I see something significant,
such as what's going on in Burma.



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood,
Syria, Rwanda, Bosnia, Amy Chua, Serbs, Croats,
Burma, Myanmar

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

*** 19-Aug-13 World View -- More on the Generational Dynamics analysis of Egypt's crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A relatively quiet day in Cairo - only 36 deaths
• More on the Generational Dynamics analysis of Egypt's crisis

One question, I think Neil Howe said most of the middle east is actually in a 3T/inner directed era, if I'm not mistaken I think he included Egypt as well?

Originally Posted by Emman85

> One question, I think Neil Howe said most of the middle east is
> actually in a 3T/inner directed era, if I'm not mistaken I think
> he included Egypt as well?

We had some debate in this forum several years ago about whether WW II
was a crisis war for Egypt, or whether it was the 1952 conflict. My
view today is that WW II was a crisis war, but even if not, it's still
60 years past 1952, so Egypt is definitely in a crisis era. Also, if
Neil Howe made that remark in the 1990s, remember that 20 years have
past since then.

*** 20-Aug-13 World View -- Sinai 'is almost an all-out war' as attack kills 24 Egyptian policemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tensions grow between Britain and Spain over Gibraltar
• Sinai 'is almost an all-out war' as attack kills 24 Egyptian policemen
• Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak may be released from prison

****
**** Tensions grow between Britain and Spain over Gibraltar
****


A fisherman holds a Spanish flag during a protest in the bay of Algeciras, near the Rock of Gibraltar, on Sunday (AP)

The European Union is investigating a growing dispute between Britain
and Spain over the enclave of Gibraltar, on the tip of Spain, but
ceded to Britain in the Treaty of Utrecht in 1714, following on
Britain's victory in the War of the Spanish Succession.
( "13-Aug-13 World View -- Britain sends warships to Gibraltar over border conflict with Spain" )

The dispute began after Gibraltar used concrete blocks to build an
artificial reef to prevent Spanish fishermen from fishing in waters
near Gibraltar. This infuriated Spanish officials, who got revenge by
toughening border checks at the crossing points, leading to enormous
delays for workers and tourists entering Gibraltar.

On Monday, the European Commission issued a statement:

<QUOTE>"[A] Commission fact-finding mission should as soon as
possible examine in loco the border control, movement of people
and goods questions. President [José Manuel Barroso] expressed
his hope that Spain and the UK will address these matters in a way
that is in line with their common membership in the
EU."<END QUOTE>

Spanish fishermen, already struggling because of the financial crisis,
say that Gibraltar's actions are hurting them the most. "Over there
you can catch 30 to 60 kilos of clams a day, for which they pay us
nine euros a kilo. But here you get thin shells that fetch two euros
and moreover there are only a few of them," according to one Spanish
fisherman. Reuters and AFP

****
**** Sinai 'is almost an all-out war' as attack kills 24 Egyptian policemen
****

Suspected Islamist terrorists killed 24 Egyptian policemen on Monday
in Egypt's Sinai region, near the border with Gaza and Israel.
Jihadists are increasingly teaming up with indigenous Bedouins in the
Sinai, especially since the July 3 ouster of president Mohamed Morsi,
taking advantage of the chaotic situation in Cairo. According to one
analyst, the Sinai is almost three times the size of Israel and
largely lawless, where there are no roads, there is no law, and the
situation in Sinai "is almost an all-out war." However, according to
another analyst, "Considering how big Sinai is, very few have properly
observed that a large bulk of the violence is concentrated in a tiny
portion of the peninsula, pushed right up against the border."
Jerusalem Post

****
**** Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak may be released from prison
****

A Cairo court has ordered the release of Egypt's former president
Hosni Mubarak in an ongoing corruption case in which he is accused of
squandering public funds to renovate his private residences, pending
his trial. Mubarak was ousted early in 2011 at the beginning of the
"Egyptian revolution," and he was jailed on corruption charges shortly
thereafter. However, there are conflicting reports as to whether
Mubarak will actually be released from custody, as he may be held by
another court where he is facing additional charges. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Bloomberg



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Spain, Gibraltar,
European Commision, José Manuel Barroso,
Egypt, Sinai, Hosni Mubarak

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*** 21-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis
• Turkey's Erdogan blames Israel for the coup, infuriating Egypt
• Israel fortifies border as jihadism grows in Sinai

****
**** Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis
****


Morsi supporters hold posters with Morsi's face and words in Arabic that read 'No to the coup' on Monday (AP)

Since the July 3 Army coup that ousted president Mohamed Morsi and his
Muslim Brotherhood government from power, it increasingly appears that
the Army's aggressive attack on the Muslim Brotherhood (MB)
organization is having some success:

• After last week's massive burst of violent massacres that
  resulted in almost 1,000 deaths, mostly of MB supporters, MB officials
  have to face the reality that, although most officials in the
  international community have condemned the army's violence, most of
  Egypt's public is blaming MB, rather than the army. Even the strict
  Salafist parties, who are even more conservative than MB, are not
  supporting MB, undoubted hoping to gain from MB's demise.
  
• As a result, MB has called off several marches, rather than risk
  additional massacres of their own supporters. No one is discounting
  the possibility of further violence, but at this moment, MB feels
  pressured to back off.
  
• Another burst of violence by activists last weekend resulting in
  the burning down of hundreds of Coptic Christian churches, monasteries
  and schools. Several Christians were also killed, but a Burma-type
  massacre did not occur. This appears, in retrospect, to be a somewhat
  desperate attempt to stir up more violence, and if that was the
  intent, once again it failed.
  
• The Army has also been successful in decapitating MB's
  organization leadership. On Tuesday, MB's Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie
  was arrested and charged with inciting violence and managing a group
  which incites violent crimes against the state and its citizens. This
  follows a wave of other arrests in the last month of top MB officials
  and leaders who face similar charges.
  
• Mohamed Morsi is widely recognized as having been a failure as
  President of Egypt. Even many of those who oppose the Army's coup
  agree that Morsi's use of dictatorial powers to force the country to
  accept an MB constitution, an MB parliament and MB version of the
  strictest Sharia law was a disaster. Morsi is still being detained by
  the Army in an undisclosed location, and while the international
  community has called for his release, there is little outrage among
  the Egyptian public.

The MB's fall from grace from the highest of heights when Morsi was in
power to the current lowest of lows has been spectacular, and it
leaves the MB with few choices, none of them pleasant.

The most obvious choice is increased violence, which would inevitably
see the MB team up with al-Qaeda linked jihadists. Jihadist
organizations are calling for this, of course, but the Egyptian public
is already wary of MB violence, and would take any link with jihadists
to be a sign that the Army should have leave to crush the MB even
further.

The other major possibility was called by one analyst a "return to the
Golden Era." The MB has been an illegal organization since 1952, and
quite used to being in that position, playing the victim, and using
its membership to serve as a humanitarian organization within Egypt.
The MB has been a disastrous failure at governing, but they've always
been extremely successful in the victim role, non-violent, and
actually a positive force in Egyptian society.

Right now, MB is reconstituting its leadership, and deciding a new
direction. It's worth repeating what I've said several times in the
last couple of weeks: It is my expectation that there will be NO civil
war between those who support and those who oppose the Muslim
Brotherhood. Today, it looks like the MB is suffering an identity
crisis, and will have to decide what kind of organization it wants to
be, and what kind of direction it wants to go in: violence and
jihadism versus humanitarianism and victimhood. I'd bet on the
latter. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and VOA

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan blames Israel for the coup, infuriating Egypt
****

The political chaos in Egypt has also caused political chaos
in Turkey. Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had
seen the "Arab Awakening" that began in 2011 as an opportunity
to advance conservative Islam throughout the Mideast, and
the victory of Mohamed Morsi as president was viewed as
a major opportunity. The ousting of Morsi has personally
infuriated Erdogan, and he expressed his fury on Tuesday:

<QUOTE>"What is said about Egypt? That democracy is not the
ballot box. Who is behind this? Israel is. We have the evidence in
our hands. That's exactly what happened. ...

If we stay silent in the face of the coup in Egypt, we will not
have the right to say something if they [the Israelis] set the
same trap for us in the future."<END QUOTE>

The evidence Erdogan was referring to was a 2011 video of a press
conference by Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and French
philosopher and author Bernard-Henri Levy, in which Levy says:

<QUOTE>"If the Muslim Brotherhood arrives in Egypt, I will
not say democracy wants it, so let democracy progress. Democracy
is not only elections, it is also values. [With regard to
Israel's use of military power,] I will urge the prevention of
them [the MB] coming to power, but by all sorts of
means."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan also stepped up his criticisms of other Muslim countries that
have not adopted strict Muslim teachings, and especially the Gulf
countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait) that gave
$16 billion to post-coup Egypt:

<QUOTE>"The Islamic world is like the brothers of the Prophet
Yusuf, who threw him down the well. As in the case of the brothers
of the Prophet Yusuf, Allah will shame those in the Islamic world
betraying their brothers and sisters in Egypt."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan's statements infuriated Egyptian officials, who accused
Erdogan of making false statements to harm Egypt's national
unity. According to an official statement by Egypt's
cabinet:

<QUOTE>"Egypt is running out of patience. ... Egypt does not
share anyone’s hostility [and its] Arab and Islamic identity are
clear."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan's statements also received sharp rebukes from officials in
Washington and the European Union. Zaman (Istanbul) and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Debka

****
**** Israel fortifies border as jihadism grows in Sinai
****

The chaos resulting from the July 3 ouster of Egypt's president
Mohamed Morsi has caused convulsions in Cairo and opportunities for
jihadists on the border with Israel in Egypt's Sinai region. The
border between Israel and Egypt has been relatively quiet for decades,
but now Israel's army is beefing up its patrols along the border.
According to one Israeli analyst:

<QUOTE>"The militants in Sinai will try to drag Israel into
the conflict, so we need to contain their activities. If a rocket
falls on a hillside in Israel, and no-one is hurt, then we can
bear that. But if a rocket falls on a hotel in Eilat, then Israel
will have to retaliate. That is a situation we need to
avoid."<END QUOTE>

NBC News

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Coptic Christians, Turkey, Israel, Tzipi Livni, Bernard-Henri Levy,
Sinai, Saudi Arabia

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

... Another burst of violence by activists last weekend resulting in
the burning down of hundreds of Coptic Christian churches, monasteries and schools. Several Christians were also killed...

-Of course, the MB had been doing this before the coup.

*** 22-Aug-13 World View -- Horrific Syria chem weapons attack causes farce in Washington and New York

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Horrific Syria chem weapons attack causes farce in Washington and New York
• Iranian military advisor discusses Syria and World War II

****
**** Horrific Syria chem weapons attack causes farce in Washington and New York
****


Alleged deaths from chemical weapons in Syria on Wednesday (Reuters)

A chemical weapons attack in a Damascus suburb in Syria on Wednesday
has apparently produced hundreds of horrifying deaths. The attack
happened at a time when 20 U.N. chemical weapons inspectors are
already in Syria, investigating chemical weapons attacks that occurred
months ago. The Syrian government agreed to let them in, presumably
because the attacks occurred so long ago that there wasn't any
evidence left.

The rebels, as well as most other people, believe that the regime of
the psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad is responsible for the new
weapons attack, well aware that he can get away with mutilating,
massacring, torturing or killing anyone he wants with no consequences.
However, officials from the regime say that they had nothing to do
with it, that the rebels are responsible.

Well, what a happy coincidence this is! The U.N. inspectors are
already there, just a 20 minute ride from the site of the new chemical
weapons attack. They can just zip over there and check out the new
attack, can't they? And the regime officials won't have any
objections, since they've already said they're not responsible, right?

Well, you already know the answer, Dear Reader. The regime won't
permit anything like that because they know they can kill anyone
they want at any time with no retribution.

It was a year ago that President Obama gave us one of those great
moral lectures he loves to give us, saying that chemical weapons would
be a "red line" that would have consequences. He said that al-Assad
would be "held accountable by the international community" if he made
the "tragic mistake" of using these weapons. He said that the United
States does not shirk from its moral duty, blah, blah, blah. Well,
there was total silence from spokesmen in Washington on Wednesday.
The moral lecture that Gen-Xer Barack Obama gave us was like almost
all his moral lectures -- total garbage. So the "red line" will be
crossed again, with no consequences. I suppose it doesn't really
matter. Under the leadership of Secretary of State John Kerry, who
has several times said that the American army is as bad as the Nazi
army, and who has said that American soldiers fighting in Iraq are
stupid ( "John Kerry and Seymour Hersh trash the armed forces."
), and who is himself the
stupidest and most incompetent Secretary of State in quite a while,
the U.S. has no credibility left in the Mideast. So what difference
does one more disaster in the Mideast make?

Then we have the United Nations Security Council in New York. The
U.S., the U.K. and France will give speeches expressing huge moral
outrage. But will those 20 inspectors be permitted to inspect this
new site? Russia has already signaled that it will block it. Edward
Snowden's hero, Russia's president Vladimir Putin, is just as
psychopathic as al-Assad, and has gleefully and energetically provided
Syria with all the weapons and training that al-Assad needs to cause
as many mutilations, tortures and murders as possible, with no
consequences.

With the world being run by morons and psychopaths, is there anyone
left in my readership who does NOT believe that a world war is around
the corner? BBC and
Bloomberg

****
**** Iranian military advisor discusses Syria and World War II
****

Senior Military Advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader MG Yahya Rahim Safavi
gave a speech excerpted below:

<QUOTE>"The Syrian war, in reality, is an American and
Zionist regime proxy war [executed by] Arab countries and Turkey,
and Israel’s military attack has manifested the true nature of
this proxy [war] more than before. ...

After three years of civil war, the Bashar Assad government and
resistant Syrian Army have now become totally dominant over the
terrorists from a military and security point of view, and have
retaken most regions from them. The [Syrian] people also did not
support the terrorists and even the Muslim Brother separated from
them due to the extreme violence and barbarity of al-Qaeda forces,
including decapitating 1,000 people. Only the matter of the
political front in Geneva 2 has remained [as the solution] that
will determine their own fate with the help of Syria and China. In
Syria’s military and political conflict, Iran, Syria, Russia and
China are victorious and America and Israel are the losers. They
thought that they could destroy Bashar Assad within a year,
currently three years have passed and they have not been able to
achieve their goals. ...

The smaller and less populated countries are overthrown sooner
against foreign military threats, and the wider, more populated
[countries] with intelligent, talented and courageous people who
have wise leaders, they have more power. ...

From a geopolitical position, Iran is the link of three
continents, Europe to Asia and Africa to Asia, and the axis of the
North’s communication to the South and the East to the West. Any
political, military, cultural, etc., events that occur in these
three countries affect Iran and its internal security. The Iranian
plateau is a special geographical unit in the Iranian land that
connects the North to the South and the East to the West. If
Iran’s railroad is connected to Basrah, [Iraq], Central Asian
countries will be connected to open sea and Central Asian products
can reach the Mediterranean by rail. ...

Due to this importance, Iran was occupied militarily during World
War II, when it had not interfered in this war. Iran, from the
north by the Russians and the south by the British, due to our
country’s special geopolitical position was occupied, and at the
end of World War II they nicknamed Iran ‘the Bridge of Victory’
while the Iranian Army at that time did not even resist for a day
against the foreigners’ forces. ...

A significant percentage of Iranian trade takes place by sea. We
have a powerful naval force in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of
Oman. Iran’s geographic position in the Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea
and range of Iranian beaches are national sources of power for our
country. ...

The Islamic Republic of Iran is a stable and powerful authority in
the region. Iran has a population of 75 million and possesses
powerful political and revolutionary leader, this is while the age
of marginal Persian Gulf countries do not surpass 100 years. Our
political geographers consider some Persian Gulf countries
rootless governments that have not become a nation-state
yet."<END QUOTE>

The paragraph that describes Iran's role in World War II is
particularly interesting from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics. Iran's two generational Crisis wars in the 1900s were the
Constitutional Revolution of 1905-10, and the Great Islamic Revolution
of 1979 combined with the Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. So during
World War II, Iran was in the middle of its generational Awakening
era, like America in the 1970s. The Constitutional Revolution was a
particularly brutal war, engulfing the entire region. The survivors
of this war were still alive in the 1940s, and like the survivors of
any generational crisis war, they vowed that they would never let
anything like the Constitutional Revolution happen to their own
children or grandchildren. So Iran did not participate in WW II, even
though the country was occupied by the Russians and the British. By
1979, the survivors of the Constitutional Revolution were all gone
(dead), and there was no one left to prevent a new brutal, bloody
civil war, the Great Islamic Revolution. American Enterprise Institute


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
John Kerry, Edward Snowden, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Iran, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Constitutional Revolution,
World War II, Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq War

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The rebels, as well as most other people, believe that the regime of
[-snip bullshit-] president Bashar al-Assad is responsible for the new
weapons attack [-snip bullshit-].

"Most other people" besides, you know, the actual UN chemical weapons inspectors. Who have come out pretty clearly for the second time in as many CW incidents on the side of "no evidence the Syrian government used sarin gas".

But keep on reporting Al Qa'eda's line all you want, John. I'm sure your friends over there appreciate your help getting the word out for them.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

"Most other people" besides, you know, the
actual UN chemical weapons inspectors. Who have come out pretty
clearly for the
second
time in as many CW incidents on the side of "no evidence the
Syrian government used sarin gas".

But keep on reporting Al Qa'eda's line all you want, John. I'm sure
your friends over there appreciate your help getting the word out for
them.

Al-Qaeda wasn't in Syria two years ago when al-Assad was using heavy
weapons to exterminate peaceful protesters and launching missiles into
children's dormitories for no reason at all. You may think that
calling Al-Assad and his supporter Putin "psychopaths" is bullshit,
but you and I will have to disagree on that. These guys belong in a
mental institution.

Your reference to al-Qaeda is laughable. Al-Qaeda was not in Syria
until al-Assad and Putin brought them in by attacking innocent Sunni
protesters, as well as launching missiles at uninvolved Sunni women
and children. When Shias/Alawites attack innocent Sunni women and
children, then al-Qaeda is going to respond.

And what's really laughable is that Russia is going to suffer the
blowback. All those Caucasian jihadists are getting wonderful
training in Syria fighting against Russian weapons and tactics.
They'll take the training back to Russia and use it blow up a few more
Moscow buildings. You may want to stay in Florida, where you'll be
safer.

As for the new chemical weapons, we'll see if al-Assad and Putin allow
the U.N. inspectors to investigate. If they're forbidden to do so, or
they're delayed, then I and a lot of other people are going to assume
that the regime is responsible and doesn't want the inspectors to
prove it.

So I see al-Assad and Putin as being 100% responsible for the the rise
of al-Qaeda in Syria. You can defend these psychopathic assholes all
you want, but don't expect me to agree.

Your problem, John, is the same one that seems to plague all members of your generation. You appear to be unable (or unwilling? but I'll choose the charitable interpretation and stick with 'unable') to see a situation where there are no White Hats, and where all the major players are evil bastards. Evil bastards, after all, can and do fight among themselves.

See, I don't support or defend or much-of-anything the regime ruling Syria or their friends in Russia and elsewhere. However my not-support for them is in no way sufficient cause for me to lie to defend the horrible things being done by people who are fighting against them. You and I are, clearly, not on even remotely the same page there.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> Your problem, John, is the same one that seems to plague all
> members of your generation. You appear to be unable (or
> unwilling? but I'll choose the charitable interpretation and
> stick with 'unable') to see a situation where there are no
> White Hats, and where all the major players are evil
> bastards. Evil bastards, after all, can and do fight among
> themselves.

> See, I don't support or defend or much-of-anything the regime
> ruling Syria or their friends in Russia and elsewhere.
> However my not-support for them is in no way sufficient
> cause for me to lie to defend the horrible things being done by
> people who are fighting against them. You and I are, clearly, not
> on even remotely the same page there.

What the hell are you talking about? Whose horrible actions do you believe I'm defending?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Whose horrible actions do you believe I'm defending?

The people who actually are engaging in chemical weapons attacks (among other atrocities). The ones whose interests you serve in parroting their line that the evil is being done by the parties they are fighting against. It's pretty clear.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

> The people who actually are engaging in chemical weapons attacks
> (among other atrocities). The ones whose interests you serve in
> parroting their line that the evil is being done by the parties
> they are fighting against. It's pretty clear.

The only thing that's pretty clear to you are the voices in your head.

You make up things that I never said, and then make accusations based
on your made up things. You've done that a couple of times in the
past as well. People in your generation are prone to that kind of
thing. It seems to be a generational sickness.

I totally reject your implication that because I criticize the
atrocities of Putin and al-Assad, that I'm excusing the atrocities of
al-Qaeda. Only a moron would draw that totally ridiculous conclusion
from what I've written.

I blame the atrocities committed by Putin and al-Assad not only
because they're atrocities, but also because they've made al-Qaeda
stronger and more dangerous. Thanks to the Putin/al-Assad atrocities,
jihadists from Pakistan to Nigeria to Dagestan are being trained to
fight in Syria, and they're getting additional training in Syria,
inflaming the entire region.

It's your refusal to criticize any of the atrocities of the
psychopaths Putin and al-Assad that actually serve the interest of not
only Putin and al-Assad, but al-Qaeda as well, because people like you
end up giving everyone a free pass.

Ever worse, your refusal is giving a free pass to Hezbollah to commit
its atrocities. So what you're doing is serving the interests the
psychopaths, the Sunni jihadists, and the Shia jihadists. Nice going!

As for who's responsible for yesterday's chem weapons attack, let's
see if the U.N. inspectors to do their inspection, or whether the
psychopaths will block them.

My bet is that the regime launched the chem weapons, and that they
won't permit the U.N. inspectors in. Let's see if I'm right or you're
right.

*** 23-Aug-13 World View -- Farce continues over Wednesday's chem weapons attack in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Farce continues over Wednesday's chem weapons attack in Syria
• Rockets fired from Lebanon land in northern Israel

****
**** Farce continues over Wednesday's chem weapons attack in Syria
****


Syrian man in front of United Nations building in Beirut holds up placard saying, 'Dear Free World, Enjoy watching us burn.' (AP)

You just can't make this stuff up. A day after the huge chemical
weapons atrocity killed hundreds or perhaps thousands of people in a
suburb of Damascus, Syria, the U.N. chemical weapons inspectors who
are sitting there in Damascus are being forbidden by the regime to go
and inspect the attack. The Bashar al-Assad regime has been making
very one indignant statement after another that they aren't
responsible, but they're still using one excuse after another to
prevent the U.N. from finding out the truth.

In New York, Russia has already made it clear that it will not
allow the U.N. Security Council to do anything.

To add to the farce, Samantha Power, America's new ambassador to the
United Nations, who for years has never missed an opportunity to
express childlike, girlish outrage at atrocities in Darfur and
elsewhere, and has demanded that the U.S. intervene to alleviate such
atrocities, seems to have disappeared. She didn't show up at
Thursday's emergency Security Council meeting, and no one would say
where she is. Speculation is that she's on vacation, and no one wants
to admit it.

The farce was continued in the State Department briefing by
spokesman Jen Psaki, when she spouted the usual Administration
nonsense:

<QUOTE>"Well, the redline has been clear. I know there’s been
some confusion about this. The redline is the use of CW, the use
of chemical weapons. That was crossed a couple of months ago. The
President took action, which we talked about at the time. While,
as I mentioned, we’re still focused on nailing down the facts –
the intel community is focused on that, the Administration is
focused on that – if these reports are true, it would be an
outrageous and flagrant escalation of use of chemical weapons by
the regime. So our focus is on nailing down the facts. The
President, of course, has a range of options that we’ve talked
about before that he can certainly consider and, of course,
discuss with his national security team."<END QUOTE>

It's hard to stop laughing when you read this bilge. "The President
took action" a couple of months ago. And what was the action? "[to
focus] on nailing down the facts." That's exactly the same "action"
that the president took several times in the past year.

It's just as well the President Obama and Ambassador Power are both
out to lunch right now. The U.S. could have done something to stop
this conflict a couple of years ago, but today there's nothing left to
do but let the Syria conflict continue to spread into a major regional
conflict. And anyway, the U.S. administration no longer has any
credibility anywhere in the world, so let's just let them enjoy their
golf games and outdoor barbeques.

I've received a number of criticisms from web site readers complaining
about yesterday's article that I
shouldn't automatically assume that the Bashar al-Assad regime is
responsible for Wednesday's chemical weapons attack, since the
opposition rebels might have been the perpetrators.

It's true that I assume that the regime of the psychopathic president
Bashar al-Assad is responsible, because (a) the regime has been
responsible for hundreds of atrocities in the last 2 1/2 years, and
(b) al-Assad has lied so many times that he has no credibility. Is
there anyone out there, including those who support al-Assad and
criticism me, who believes anything that comes out of al-Assad's
mouth?

However, I'm willing to be open-minded. Let's see what the
U.N. inspectors have to say. If they find that the al-Assad regime is
innocent, then I'll admit I was wrong.

Here's one comment from another web site reader, defending al-Assad
and criticizing me:

<QUOTE>"Mr. Xenakis, you are quick to blame [Bashar al-Assad]
but you give the very reasons for which it would not make sense
for him to have done this. With inspectors 20 miles away, he
would HAVE to allow them access to the alleged attack site. If
not, the world would automatically suspect that he has something
to hide."<END QUOTE>

Well, this is good for another laugh. Maybe the regime "would HAVE to
allow ... access," but it's not happening, is it? The inspectors are
still in Damascus. So apparently the regime doesn't HAVE to allow
access, after all.

But still, why would al-Assad order this chemical weapons attack while
the U.N. inspectors are in town? The answer to that question is
easy: Al-Assad probably didn't personally order the attack. The
attack was probably ordered by one of al-Assad's lieutenants who is
just as psychopathic as al-Assad, and who didn't even know that the
U.N. inspectors are around.

It's unreasonable to expect a man as busy as al-Assad to take the time
to approve every atrocity, massacre, mass torture and mutilation and
chemical weapons attack by his army. He can leave those decisions to
his lieutenants. If he had to approve every one personally, then he
wouldn't have to time to pursue his hobbies, which, I assume, are
something like going into his basement and sticking needles under the
fingernails of Sunni Muslim children, and then pulling out their teeth
with pliers.

As for who's responsible for Wednesday's chemical weapons attack,
let's see if the U.N. inspectors to do their inspection, or whether
the psychopaths Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin will block them.

My bet is that the regime launched the chemical weapons attacks, and
that they won't permit the U.N. inspectors in. Let's see if I'm right
or my critics are right. BBC and
Fox News

****
**** Rockets fired from Lebanon land in northern Israel
****


Two hot chicks walk past damage caused by a rocket fired from Lebanon into Israel (Reuters)

An al-Qaeda linked terrorist group, Brigades of Abdullah Azzam, is
claiming credit for launching a barrage of four rockets from southern
Lebanon into Israel, suggesting that Islamist militants are opening up
a new front with Israel. Two struck Israeli communities and one was
shot down by Israel's "Iron Dome" anti-missile system. None of them
caused any casualties.

Israeli officials are concerned about the increasing rocket attacks on
Israel by jihadist militants in both Lebanon and Sinai. The Syrian
conflict has provided a fertile training ground that has drawn
jihadists from Pakistan to Nigeria to Dagestan to come for training in
Syria and to learn terrorism skills they can take back home. Thanks
to the Syrian war the entire region is becoming inflamed, and I place
the blame squarely on Russia's president Vladimir Putin whose weapons
and training have made it possible for al-Assad's atrocities against
Sunnis, many of whom are innocent women and children, to continue.
Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad,
Samantha Power, Jen Psaki,
Israel, Brigades of Abdullah Azzam, Sinai,
Russia, Vladimir Putin

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

... To add to the farce, Samantha Power, America's new ambassador to the
United Nations, who for years has never missed an opportunity to
express childlike, girlish outrage at atrocities in Darfur and
elsewhere, and has demanded that the U.S. intervene to alleviate such
atrocities, seems to have disappeared. She didn't show up at
Thursday's emergency Security Council meeting, and no one would say
where she is. Speculation is that she's on vacation, and no one wants
to admit it...

-Yeah. Sweet!

*** 24-Aug-13 World View -- U.S. hints at cruise missile strikes against Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's Erdogan adopts Muslim Brotherhood's four-fingered salute
• Syria chemical weapons attack generates international controversy
• U.S. hints at cruise missile strikes against Syria

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan adopts Muslim Brotherhood's four-fingered salute
****


R4BIA symbol, and Erdogan's four-fingered salute on Friday (AA)

In a sign that relations between Turkey and Egypt are becoming
increasingly unfriendly, Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
has been increasingly flashing the new "R4BIA" four-fingered salute
that has been adopted as a victory sign by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) adopted the new salute after last week's
clashes when security forces cleared out the massive sit-ins of MB
supporters, resulting in nearly 1,000 deaths, mostly of MB supporters.
Most of the clashes occurred in Cairo's Rabaa Square. In Arabic, the
word "Rabaa" or "Rabia" means "fourth," and MB supporters are now
publicizing the new four-fingered salute by carrying around bright
yellow signs, and posting the signs on social networking sites.

Erdogan has flashed the four-fingered salute several times in the last
week, showing his solidarity with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, and his
disapproval of Egypt's new government. Al-Arabiya (Dubai) and Anadolu Agency (Ankara)

****
**** Syria chemical weapons attack generates international controversy
****

To the surprise of no one except the sycophants of the psychopathic
Bashar al-Assad, we're now in the third day following the horrific
chemical weapons attack in a Damascus suburb in Syria, but the U.N.
inspectors are still sitting in Damascus, forbidden by the regime to
travel the 20 miles to the site to inspect it.

And we're hearing the usual garbage from the Russians. Of course it's
the rebels, not the regime, who launched the attack, they're saying,
and yes, we'd like to encourage the Syrians to allow the inspectors to
visit the site. But those remarks, which have been widely touted as
"a sign of hope" by the credulous mainstream media, did not come at
the U.N. Security Council, nor from President Vladimir Putin, nor from
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. They came from a spokesman,
who added:

<QUOTE>"It draws attention to the fact that biased regional
media have immediately, as if on command, begun an aggressive
information attack, laying all the responsibility on the
government."<END QUOTE>

So apparently the real victims here are not the hundreds of people who
died horrifically on Wednesday from a chemical weapons attack.
According to the Russians, the real victim is Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, who is being subjected to a horrific "information attack."

At any rate, Syria continues to block inspections by the U.N.
inspectors. As everybody is well aware, each day that goes by not
only causes the evidence to degrade, and also gives the al-Assad
regime time to clean up any evidence that might incriminate it.
Russia Today

****
**** U.S. hints at cruise missile strikes against Syria
****

Senior American Defense Department officials are acknowledging
that the U.S. is considering various options for military intervention
in Syria, including a list of targets for possible cruise
missile strikes. At the same time, the U.S. Navy is putting
more forces into the area, in preparation for a possible
cruise missile strike.

There are two conflicting commonly held views with regard to
U.S. or Western military intervention into Syria:

• One view is that military intervention would inflame
  the situation, leading to a wider war.
  
• The other view is that without military interview, the conflict
  will continue to worsen, leading to a wider war.

In this case, both views are correct.

As I've suggested in the past and will now make explicit, it's my
opinion that a tipping point has been reached and passed, and it
really no longer matters what steps are taken or not taken with
respect to military intervention in Syria. Either way, the Syria
conflict has launched a trend that will continue to strengthen until
it leads to a much larger conflict.

It was in 2003 that I first wrote that
the Mideast was headed for a major new war between Jews and Arabs,
re-fighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Since then, it was
left to be answered how that new war would be triggered.

There were several possibilities. There was the 2006 war between
Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. There were several wars involving
Israel, Fatah, and Hamas in Gaza. But all of those wars fizzled out
within a few weeks.

The Syrian conflict might have fizzled out in 2011 if the U.S.
and the West had intervened military at that time.

Or, it might have fizzled out by itself if it hadn't been for Russia's
incredible military intervention, supplying massive amounts of heavy
weapons and training to the al-Assad regime.

However now, 2 1/2 years later, the U.S. and the West have lost
all credibility in the Mideast by allowing themselves to look
like weak fools, while Russia continues its aggressive support
for Syria, and is perceived to be the strong power.

Today, the Syria conflict is nowhere near fizzling. Even a year ago,
if al-Assad had been eliminated, then the war might have fizzled.
Actually, that would still be true today if it weren't for outside
intervention.

But, in my opinion, a tipping point has been reached and passed, and
even the elimination of al-Assad at this point would not end the Syria
conflict, because outside forces, particularly Russia and al-Qaeda, as
well as Iran and Hezbollah, are too committed to seeing it through to
victory.

Then there are the refugees. Some two million Syrians have been
displaced within Syria's borders. Hundreds of thousands of them are
pouring into neighboring countries, overwhelming services there. The
number of refugee children has just passed one million. Funds to feed
all these refugees are scarce, and humanitarian agencies are finding
it increasingly difficult to meet the needs of the refugees. In
Lebanon, sectarian conflicts are already growing, with two car bombs
targeting Sunnis on Friday, and a major explosion targeting Shias a
week ago.

At the same time, al-Qaeda is strengthening and growing. Russia's
military intervention in Syria has resulted in ruthless attacks on
Sunni Muslim families by the Shia/Alawite regime. So of course this
is going to tremendously inflame al-Qaeda linked groups. Jihadists
from throughout that part of the world, from Pakistan and Uzbekistan
to Libya and Nigeria to Dagestan and Chechnya are getting training so
that they can fight in Syria to defeat the Shia/Alawite regime, and
then the go to Syria and get further training that they can take back
home for more terrorist attacks.

That in turn has inflamed Shia jihadists. Iran has sent thousands of
troops to Syria to fight against al-Qaeda, and Hezbollah has sent tens
of thousands, and has scored some impressive victories that are
further inflaming the al-Qaeda linked groups.

Another factor is this week's horrific chemical weapons attack.
This is significantly increasing demands for military intervention
in Syria, not only in the West but also in the Arab states.

All of these factors have created a growing trend line that, in my
opinion, can no longer be stopped. Will the U.S. launch cruise
missiles into Syria, or not? I sure don't know, but in the long run,
I don't believe it will make any difference anyway. CNN and CBS News and LA Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Rabaa, R4BIA,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
U.S. Navy, cruise missiles, al-Qaeda, Iran,
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Jordan

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*** 25-Aug-13 World View -- Obama may use NATO to justify missile attack on Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Obama may use NATO to justify missile attack on Syria
• Further retaliation feared in Lebanon after Friday's bombings
• Muslim Brotherhood appears to be weakening in Egypt

****
**** Obama may use NATO to justify missile attack on Syria
****


Victims of chemical weapons attack in Syria

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) says that on
Wednesday, hospitals it supports in Syria treated about 3,600 patients
with "neurotoxic symptoms", of whom 355 have died. MSF says that
staff at the hospitals described a large number of patients arriving
in the space of less than three hours with symptoms including
convulsions, extreme salivation, contracted pupils and sight and
respiratory problems. With the MSF report, and with continuing
releases to the internet of hundreds of pictures and videos of
Wednesday's chemical weapons attacks, international pressure is
building rapidly to take some military action against president Bashar
al-Assad's regime. Britain and France are said to have already
concluded that military action is necessary.

There is no chance that the United Nations Security Council will
approve any action, and so President Obama is said to be considering
using NATO's 1998 air war in Kosovo as a legal precedent for an attack
on Syria.

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Aleksandr Lukashevich, has
claimed that the chemical weapons attack was planned and carried out
by opponents of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. As evidence, he
points to videos of the attack that were posted several hours earlier
than the actual attack. However, it's now believed that Lukashevich
became confused because he relied on the time stamps on the YouTube
videos, and the time stamps are always based on California time. The
attack occurred early on Wednesday morning in Syria, while it was
still Tuesday in California. BBC and
The Atlantic Wire

****
**** Further retaliation feared in Lebanon after Friday's bombings
****

After Friday's bombings targeting two Sunni mosques in the
north Lebanon city of Tripoli, the Lebanese people are
fearful that rounds of tit for tat sectarian bombings are
going to accelerate and worsen. Friday's bombings cost more
than 47 lives and hundreds of injuries, and were the
deadliest since the 1980s civil war, and were retaliation
for last week's enormous car bomb targeting the Shia Muslim
terrorist group Hezbollah. ( "16-Aug-13 World View -- Car bomb in Hezbollah's Lebanon stronghold kills 20"
)

Sunni clerics are accusing Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime
for Friday's blasts. A statement issued by Al-Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) said:

<QUOTE>"We know with certainty that behind this
deplorable act committed against are the hands of the
vile, rafidah Hezbollah, which stands side by side with
Bashar in Syria.

That vile party ... should know that it will meet
retribution soon."<END QUOTE>

It was just a few years ago that Muslim terrorist groups
throughout the Mideast got along well with another, and
cooperated in their jihad against Israel. But the Syrian
conflict has turned Sunnis and Shias against each, on the
trend line to a massive sectarian war throughout the region.
Daily Star (Beirut) and Reuters

****
**** Muslim Brotherhood appears to be weakening in Egypt
****

It was just a week ago that many pundits were predicting a
civil war in Egypt between Muslim Brotherhood (MB)
supporters versus opponents, but now there are signs that
the entire conflict has fizzled. MB leaders had called for
a massive turnout in protests on Friday. Instead, the
turnout was considerably smaller than predicted, and the
protest marches ended relatively quickly. On Friday, the
government locked out a large part of Cairo with tanks. The
government has jailed hundreds of MB leaders and has killed
almost 1,000 MB supporters in the last week alone, in
actions that many people in the international community are
calling "brutal." Al-Ahram (Cairo)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,
Britain, France, NATO, Russia, Aleksandr Lukashevich,
Lebanon, Tripoli, Hezbollah, Israel,
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood

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*** 26-Aug-13 World View -- Syria chemical weapons inspection offer 'Not Credible'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S., U.K. call Syria chemical weapons inspection offer 'not credible'
• Britain and France call for 'consequences' for Syria
• New Buddhist on Muslim violence in Burma (Myanmar)

****
**** U.S., U.K. call Syria chemical weapons inspection offer 'not credible'
****


Pigeons lie dead on Saturday after Wednesday's chemical weapons attack (CNN)

Syria said on Sunday that it will allow U.N. weapons inspectors full
access to any site of a suspected chemical weapons attack, starting on
Monday. However, both American and British officials are rejecting
the offer, for two reasons: First, the regime waited five days for the
offer, giving themselves time to tamper with the evidence; and second,
the regime has been continuously showering the site with missiles,
apparent in an effort to degrade or destroy the evidence, and that
shelling is continuing as late as Sunday evening. According to a
U.S. official:

<QUOTE>"If the Syrian government had nothing to hide and
wanted to prove to the world that it had not used chemical weapons
in this incident, it would have ceased its attacks on the area and
granted immediate access to the UN -- five days ago."

At this juncture, the belated decision by the regime to grant
access to the U.N. team is too late to be credible, including
because the evidence available has been significantly corrupted as
a result of the regime's persistent shelling and other intentional
actions over the last five days.

Based on the reported number of victims, reported symptoms of
those who were killed or injured, witness accounts, and other
facts gathered by open sources, the U.S. intelligence community,
and international partners, there is very little doubt at this
point that a chemical weapon was used by the Syrian regime against
civilians in this incident."<END QUOTE>

Another official said, "There is nothing credible to indicate that the
rebels, either the Syrian National Council or even al-Nusra Front,
have used chemical weapons. Only the Assad regime is responsible for
chemical weapons use." CNN

****
**** Britain and France call for 'consequences' for Syria
****

British Foreign Secretary William Hague echoed the U.S. officials'
remarks, and added:

<QUOTE>"We cannot, in the 21st century, allow the idea that
chemical weapons can be used with impunity, that people can be
killed in this way and that there are no consequences for
it."<END QUOTE>

Another White House statement said:

<QUOTE>"President Obama and [French president François]
Hollande discussed possible responses by the international
community and agreed to continue to consult closely."<END QUOTE>

The momentum for some kind of military intervention appears to be
building quickly. AFP and Reuters

****
**** New Buddhist on Muslim violence in Burma (Myanmar)
****


Burma, showing Kanbalu, Meiktila and Rakhine State, all sites of recent violence (BBC)

In signs that Buddhist on Muslim violence is continuing to widen in
Burma (Myanmar), About 1,000 Buddhist rioters burned Muslim shops and
homes in the village of Kanbalu, in the northern region of the
country. This follows hundred of recent deaths of Muslims by
Buddhists, first in Rakhine State in the southwest last year, and then
in central Burma in March. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht"
.)

The latest wave of violence erupted after a Muslim man was arrested on
suspicion of attempting to rape a Buddhist woman on Saturday evening.
A crowd of about 150 people and three Buddhist monks gathered at the
police station demanding that the accused be handed over to them.
When the authorities refused, the mob attacked Muslim property in the
area and the crowd grew in size and ferocity as the night went on.

With this spreading anti-Muslim violence one can see a full-scale
crisis civil war building between the Buddhists and the Muslims. It's
going to explode into a major bloodbath before too much longer.
AFP and BBC



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Britain, William Hague,
France, François Hollande,
Burma, Myanmar, Kanbalu, Meiktila, Rakhine

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*** 27-Aug-13 World View -- The drums of war beat over Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. promises 'accountability' for chemical weapons attack
• Military intervention in Syria raises many issues
• United Nations chemical weapons inspectors reach attack site
• Syria versus Iraq
• Mideast peace process meeting canceled after 3 Palestinians killed

****
**** U.S. promises 'accountability' for chemical weapons attack
****


U.N. chemical weapons inspectors travel to attack site on Monday

The horrific videos of Wednesday's chemical weapons attack in Syria
have been streaming in, and Syria continued until the last week to
bomb and shell the site of the attack, in order to degrade and destroy
the evidence. These factors have dramatically changed international
attitudes between Friday and Monday. As recently as Friday, officials
indicated that there was no desire for military action. By Sunday,
attitudes were changing rapidly, and by Monday, Secretary of State
John Kerry was using very strong, personally emotional words:

<QUOTE>"What we saw in Syria last week should shock the
conscience of the world. It defies any code of morality. Let me be
clear: The indiscriminate slaughter of civilians, the killing of
women and children and innocent bystanders, by chemical weapons is
a moral obscenity. By any standard it is inexcusable, and despite
the excuses and equivocations that some have manufactured, it is
undeniable. ...

Moreover, we know that the Syrian regime maintains custody of
these chemical weapons. We know that the Syrian regime has the
capacity to do this with rockets. We know that the regime has been
determined to clear the opposition from those very places where
the attacks took place. And with our own eyes, we have all of us
become witnesses. ...

I went back and I watched the videos, the videos that anybody can
watch in the social media, and I watched them one more
gut-wrenching time. It is really hard to express in words the
human suffering that they lay out before us. As a father, I can’t
get the image out of my head of a man who held up his dead child,
wailing while chaos swirled around him; the images of entire
families dead in their beds without a drop of blood or even a
visible wound; bodies contorting in spasms; human suffering that
we can never ignore or forget. Anyone who can claim that an attack
of this staggering scale could be contrived or fabricated needs to
check their conscience and their own moral compass. ...

But make no mistake: President Obama believes there must be
accountability for those who would use the world’s most heinous
weapons against the world’s most vulnerable people. Nothing today
is more serious and nothing is receiving more serious
scrutiny."<END QUOTE>

No U.S. aircraft carriers are being sent to the region. However,
there are four U.S. destroyers positioned in the eastern
Mediterranean, with hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles ready to be
launched, if and when President Obama gives the order. Countries on
the region are going on high alert. U.S. Department of State

****
**** Military intervention in Syria raises many issues
****

These are some of the issues being raised about military intervention
in Syria against the regime of president Bashar al-Assad:

• Military options: No boots on the ground, except
  possibly for special forces already stationed in Jordan. Most likely
  attack from cruise missiles. Russia has provided Syria with advanced
  long-range S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, and so aircraft are unlikely
  to be used.
  
• Missile targets: These include airports that are used
  by Russians to resupply weapons to Syria. Missiles will attack
  runways, aircraft, munitions and fuel stores. The objective
  will be to substantially degrade al-Assad's military power.
  
• Legal issues: Russia is saying that any attack on Syria
  would be a "grave violation of international law." The Obama
  administration would like to have some legal justification for an
  attack. Russia and China would veto any U.N. Security Council
  resolution. However, there are two military actions from the 1990s
  that are being considered as precedents:
  
  
  • Operation Desert Fox (1998): When Saddam Hussein
    blocked U.N. WMD inspections, the U.S. bombed military and
    security targets, to degrade Iraq's ability to produce, store,
    maintain and deliver weapons of mass destruction.
    
  • Nato peacekeeping operations (1990s): Nato launched
    bombing missions several times in the 1990s, particular on Bosnia
    in 1995 and on Kosovo in 1999. In both cases, the objective was
    to prevent further genocide.
  
  
  The legal standing of an American military intervention would be
  considerably stronger if other nations participated militarily, rather
  than America going it alone.
  
• Military objective: What's the objective of a missile
  campaign? When President Clinton sent some cruise missiles into
  Afghanistan hoping that one of them would kill Osama bin Laden,
  nothing was accomplished. Is the objective for the attack on Syria
  simply to punish al-Assad? Can Syria's air power be sufficiently
  degraded to militarily justify the attack?
  
• Blowback: Russia's defense minister Sergei Lavrov is
  warning that if the U.S. attacks, then Syrian jihadists will use it as
  an excuse to attack Western targets, a laughable claim, since
  jihadists need no excuse. Lavrov also made a comparison to the Iraq
  war and the Libya military intervention, which he said "destabilized
  the region in a dangerous way." However, as I wrote two days ago
  ( "24-Aug-13 World View -- U.S. hints at cruise missile strikes against Syria"
  ), my
  opinion is that Syria has reached a tipping point and that the Syrian
  conflict is going to spread around the region, irrespective of whether
  there's any attack or not. If there IS an attack, then the attack
  will be blamed for the wider war.

Dept. of Defense and NATO

****
**** United Nations chemical weapons inspectors reach attack site
****

After being delayed by the Bashar al-Assad regime for five days, the
United Nations chemical weapons inspectors finally reached the site of
the attack on Monday. The lead vehicle came under heavy attack by
unidentified snipers as it approached the site, and was forced to turn
back, but there were no injuries, and the inspectors reached the site
later. According to a spokesman, the team had a "very productive" day
collecting evidence and interviewing victims, and will continue its
work on Tuesday. CNN

****
**** Syria versus Iraq
****

I've written many times in the past that if Al Gore had won the
presidency in 2000, then he would have pursued the Iraq war, just as
President George Bush did. (See, for example, "The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki."
from 2008.)

I received a lot of scoffing and ridicule for that assertion, but now
with President Obama we can see what might have happened with a
President Gore. There is no one more politically opposed to any
military action than Obama, but he's being forced into attacking Syria
for political reasons, but knowing that he'll be blamed if anything
goes wrong, just as he bitterly attacked Bush for the Iraq action.

And so, once again, Generational Dynamics has been proven to be
right, and its critics have been proven wrong. This has happened
too many times to count.

****
**** Mideast peace process meeting canceled after 3 Palestinians killed
****

The Palestinian Authority canceled peace talks on Monday, after
Israeli security forces killed three Palestinians at the Kalandiya
reguee camp in the West Bank. According to the security forces, they
were reacting to a large scale attack on them by hundreds of
Palestinians. A Palestinian spokesman called on the United States to
intervene and prevent the collapse of the "peace process." Jerusalem Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
John Kerry, Security Council, Russia, China, Sergei Lavrov,
Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, Nato, Iraq, George Bush,
Palestinian Authority, Israel

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*** 28-Aug-13 World View -- U.S. attack on Syria could come as early as Thursday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel prepares for counter-attack from Hezbollah
• U.S. attack on Syria could come as early as Thursday
• Russia evacuates its citizens from Syria
• Monday's Mideast peace process meeting was held after all

****
**** Israel prepares for counter-attack from Hezbollah
****


Israeli child being fitted with a gas mask

Both Syria and Hezbollah are promising to respond to an American
attack on Syria with a counter-attack on Syria. In Israel, civilians
flooded gas mask distribution centers spurred on by fears that any
Western military response to last week's alleged chemical weapons
attack in Syria could ensnare their own country in war. Euro Jewish Press

****
**** U.S. attack on Syria could come as early as Thursday
****

American rhetoric has now reached the point where it will be
politically almost impossible to avoid an attack on Syria. ( "27-Aug-13 World View -- The drums of war beat over Syria"
)

According to Vice President Joe Biden:

<QUOTE>"Chemical weapons have been used.

No one doubts that innocent men, women and children have been the
victims of chemical weapons attacks in Syria, and there's no doubt
who's responsible for this heinous use of chemical weapons in
Syria: the Syrian regime.

The options that we are considering are not about regime change.
They are about responding to the clear violation of an
international standard that prohibits the use of chemical
weapons."<END QUOTE>

Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said that American forces are now
ready to act immediately on an order from President Barack Obama.

The U.S. is considering three days of missile strikes on Syria,
perhaps beginning on Thursday. After three days, strategists could
run an assessment and target was previously missed. The U.S. missile
strikes would almost certainly be launched from Nary destroyers or
submarines in the Mediterranean Sea. Four destroyers are lined up
ready to strike: the USS Barry, the USS Mahan, the USS Ramage and the
USS Gravely.

According to U.S. officials, it will not be an objective to cripple
Syria's military, or to topple president Bashar al-Assad. The
objective of the attack will be to "send a message" to al-Assad.

A number of analysts have expressed concern that unless the attack
significantly degrades Syria's armed forces, then it will have been
for nothing, and America's credibility will suffer even further. Some
analysts express concern that President Obama is going ahead with the
attack for his own political purposes, to "do something," after have
set several "red lines," and doing nothing when they were crossed.
NBC News

****
**** Russia evacuates its citizens from Syria
****

A Russian aircraft landed in Latakia airport in Syria on Tuesday,
with 20 tons of humanitarian aid, mostly consisting of tinned
foods and sugar. About 180 people, 100 of them Russia, will
leave Syria on the return flight.

Russia's foreign ministry says that the West was acting in the Islamic
world like "a monkey with a grenade." According to a spokesman:

<QUOTE>"Attempts to bypass the [United Nations] Security
Council, once again to create artificial groundless excuses for a
military intervention in the region are fraught with new suffering
in Syria and catastrophic consequences for other countries of the
Middle East and North Africa.

We are calling on our American partners and all members of the
world community to demonstrate prudence (and) strict observance of
international law, especially the fundamental principles of the UN
Charter."<END QUOTE>

Telegraph (London)

****
**** Monday's Mideast peace process meeting was held after all
****

Despite reports that the Palestinian Authority had canceled peace
talks on Monday, following the deaths of three Palestinians, the
Monday evening meeting was apparently held anyway. According to a
Palestinian source, the two negotiation teams met in the house of
chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat amid the absence of envoys
from the United States, the sponsor of the peace talks. Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Hezbollah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Joe Biden, Chuck Hagel, Russia,
Palestinian Authority, Saeb Erekat

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*** 29-Aug-13 World View -- New sectarian bombings kill 86 in Baghdad, Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New sectarian bombings kill 86 in Baghdad, Iraq
• Obama, under international pressure, may be forced to back down on Syria

****
**** New sectarian bombings kill 86 in Baghdad, Iraq
****


Car wreckage in Sadr City on Wednesday

A series of car bombings and some gunfight attacks across Baghdad, in
mostly Shia areas, on Wednesday killed 86 people and wounded 263. The
numbers of these casualties from these attacks have been increasing
steadily every month, reaching over 1,000 deaths in July, ever since
American forces withdrew from Iraq in December, 2011, fulfilling a
campaign promise by President Barack Obama. The conflict in Syria has
inflamed the entire region, including Iraq, but Iraq is by far the
worst hit country outside of Syria itself. BBC and
Reuters

****
**** Obama, under international pressure, may be forced to back down on Syria
****

Britain's prime minister David Cameron has been forced to delay
consideration of Britain's participation in military intervention in
Syria because of deep public opposition. U.N. Secretary-General Ban
Ki-Moon called for delays, and U.N./Arab League peace envoy Lakhdar
Brahimi said that any military action would be illegal without
Security Council approval.

President Barack Obama said on Wednesday that no decision had
been made yet, despite very sharp rhetoric that implies that
some military action is required:

<QUOTE>"I have not made a decision. I have gotten options
from our military, had extensive discussions with my national
security team."

I have not made a decision, but I think it's important that if, in
fact, we make a choice to have repercussions for the use of
chemical weapons, then the Assad regime, which is involved in a
civil war, trying to protect itself, will have received a pretty
strong signal that in fact, it better not do it again. And that
doesn't solve all the problems inside of Syria, and you know, it
doesn't, obviously, end the death of innocent civilians inside of
Syria.

We have looked at all the evidence, and we do not believe the
opposition possessed nuclear weapons on -- or chemical weapons of
that sort. We do not believe that, given the delivery systems,
using rockets, that the opposition could have carried out these
attacks. We have concluded that the Syrian government in fact
carried these out. And if that's so, then there need to be
international consequences,

We do have to make sure that when countries break international
norms on weapons like chemical weapons that could threaten us,
that they are held accountable."<END QUOTE>

Many analysts and politicians, including a number of Democrats, are
expressing concern that when President Obama talks about "a pretty
strong signal," that he's planning to just lob a few missiles into
Syria, leaving Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to declare himself a
hero for having survived an American attack.

During the 2007-08 presidential election campaign, both Barack Obama
and Joe Biden were vitriolically critical of President George Bush,
and Biden even said that he might call for Bush's impeachment. But
now Obama and Biden are doing exactly the things that they criticized
Bush for, suggesting that they're naively stumbling from one foreign
policy action to the next, based on the latest poll results, with no
underlying principles, and no clue what's going on in the world.

Others are suggesting that the apparent uncertainty and confusion in
the administration is simply a ploy to mislead the Syrians and
Russians, so they'll be unprepared for a planned surprise attack.
We'll see. BBC and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Britain, David Cameron, Ban Ki-Moon, Lakhdar Brahimi

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*** 30-Aug-13 World View -- China and Japan really DO hate each other

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China and Japan really DO hate each other
• Echoing 1938, Britain gives a pass to Syria's Bashar al-Assad

****
**** China and Japan really DO hate each other
****


Japan-China mutual attitudes, 2005-2013 (GenronNPO)

A survey conducted for the last nine years shows that in the last
year, the mutual public hatred between the Japanese and Chinese people
has reached critical levels. In the latest survey, 90.1% of Japanese
had unfavorable impressions about China, while 92.8% of Chinese had
unfavorable impressions about Japan.

The report blames it on the dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands,
but that doesn't take into account the centuries of hatred between the
two people. The Chinese people have repeatedly made it clear that
they're seeking revenge for Japan's genocidal actions prior to and
during World War II, especially the 1937 Nanking (Nanjing) Massacre,
and the use of Chinese "comfort women" by the Japanese soldiers during
the war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the sharp increase in
mutual contempt between the two populations since 2005, especially in
the last year, is caused by the disappearance of the generations of
survivors of World War II. For them, WW II was so horrible that they
were traumatized for life, and have devoted their lives to make sure
that nothing so horrible happens again. But now those survivors are
almost gone, leaving behind younger generations growing up after the
war, with no personal memories of the horrors of the last war between
Japan and China. These younger generations have no personal memories
of the horrors of the last war, and so they have no fear of the next
war, and no clue what's going to happen to them. GenronNPO and China Daily and The Diplomat

****
**** Echoing 1938, Britain gives a pass to Syria's Bashar al-Assad
****

In a major political victory for Syria's psychopathic president Bashar
al-Assad and his psychopathic arms supplier, Russian president
Vladimir Putin, Britain's House of Commons on Thursday evening
rejected any military action in response to al-Assad's repeated use of
chemical weapons against his own citizens.

The vote is a major defeat for prime minister David Cameron,
who said:

<QUOTE>"I strongly believe in the need for a tough response
to the use of chemical weapons, but I also believe in respecting
the will of this House of Commons. It is very clear tonight that,
while the House has not passed a motion, it is clear to me that
the British parliament, reflecting the views of the British
people, does not want to see British military action. I get that
and the government will act accordingly."<END QUOTE>

The vote throws Cameron's own political future into doubt. During the
debate, Cameron called attention to a contradiction in the arguments
used against him. On the one hand, some asked why he was rushing into
military action, when the chemical weapons attack occurred only last
week, while others pointed out that there had been 14 previous
(smaller) chemical weapons attacks, so why now? However, others said
that after the experience of going to war in Iraq based on
intelligence that turned out to be faulty, they were simply unwilling
to support any military intervention under any circumstances.

The rejection is reminiscent of the free pass that Britain's prime
minister Neville Chamberlain gave to Adolf Hitler for the Nazi
invasion and annexation of the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia in
1938, announcing that Hitler promised "Peace in our time."

Far from preventing war, Chamberlain's free pass convinced Hitler that
Britain was too weak to oppose his "Lebensraum" policy, and Britain
and the Nazis were at war a year later.

In the current situation, Western weakness, combined with al-Assad's
and Putin's aggressive Sunni extermination plans, have already
tremendously inflamed the entire Mideast, as al-Qaeda linked jihadists
from Pakistan to Nigeria to Dagestan have been traveling to Syria to
fight al-Assad's Shia/Alawite forces, and also to Iraq, where the
number of deaths from terrorist acts targeting Shias has been
skyrocketing. The actions of these two psychopaths have caused the
deaths of 100,000 Syrians, almost all civilians, as well as millions
of refugees, over a million of which have flooded into neighboring
countries. The vote in Britain can only make that situation worse.

Britain's rejection was apparently a surprise to everyone, including
the White House. Caitlin Hayden, a spokesman for the White House and
National Security Council said in a statement:

<QUOTE>"As we've said, President Obama's decision-making will
be guided by what is in the best interests of the United States.
He believes that there are core interests at stake for the United
States and that countries who violate international norms
regarding chemical weapons need to be held
accountable."<END QUOTE>

Some analysts believe that time is now working against President
Obama, and if he is going to take some action, it will have to
be this weekend, for two reasons. First, international will
to take action is weakening with time. And second, Obama
will be traveling to Russia next week for the G20 meeting.

President Obama has painted himself into a corner. He's repeatedly
said that use of chemical weapons was a "red line," and that al-Assad
had to "be held accountable." Britain's rejection is already a
humiliation for Obama and the United States, and if al-Assad is
permitted to get away with using chemical weapons to slaughter masses
of his own civilians with no accountability, it will represent a major
humiliation for the West, and will set the stage for a major war, just
as surely as Chamberlain's "Peace in our time" message did in 1938.
Unfortunately, sending a few missiles into Syria with no permanent
effect on the war will have the same effect. CBS News and Atlantic Wire


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Nanking Massacre,
Senkaku, Diaoyu, Britain, David Cameron, Vladimir Putin,
Syria, Russia, Bashar al-Assad, Adolf Hitler,
Nazis, Neville Chamberlain

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*** 31-Aug-13 World View -- U.S. Administration lays out the case for Syria intervention

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. Administration lays out the case for Syria intervention
• Britain's leaders engage in soul-searching

****
**** U.S. Administration lays out the case for Syria intervention
****

President Barack Obama says that he has not yet made a decision. But
he's set several "red lines," and failed to do anything when the red
lines were breeched. He's flip-flopped on his own attitudes, as
stated in 2007-08 when he criticized President George Bush for things
that he's apparently about to do. Thus, many analysts believe Obama
has no choice but to launch an American attack on Syria, and they
expect an attack this weekend, possibly with some support from France
and Turkey.

Secretary of State John Kerry gave a very strongly worded statement,
apparently in preparation for an attack on Syria:

<QUOTE>"Our intelligence community has carefully reviewed and
re-reviewed information regarding this attack, and I will tell you
it has done so more than mindful of the Iraq experience. We will
not repeat that moment. ...

Well, we know that the Assad regime has the largest chemical
weapons program in the entire Middle East. We know that the regime
has used those weapons multiple times this year.... We know that
the regime was specifically determined to rid the Damascus suburbs
of the opposition, and it was frustrated that it hadn’t succeeded
in doing so.

We know that for three days before the attack the Syrian regime’s
chemical weapons personnel were on the ground in the area making
preparations. And we know that the Syrian regime elements were
told to prepare for the attack by putting on gas masks and taking
precautions associated with chemical weapons. We know that these
were specific instructions. We know where the rockets were
launched from and at what time. We know where they landed and
when. We know rockets came only from regime-controlled areas and
went only to opposition-controlled or contested neighborhoods.

And we know, as does the world, that just 90 minutes later all
hell broke loose in the social media. With our own eyes we have
seen the thousands of reports from 11 separate sites in the
Damascus suburbs. All of them show and report victims with
breathing difficulties, people twitching with spasms, coughing,
rapid heartbeats, foaming at the mouth, unconsciousness and
death. ...

The United States Government now knows that at least 1,429 Syrians
were killed in this attack, including at least 426 children. Even
the first responders, the doctors, nurses, and medics who tried to
save them, they became victims themselves. We saw them gasping for
air, terrified that their own lives were in danger. ...

We also know many disturbing details about the aftermath. We know
that a senior regime official who knew about the attack confirmed
that chemical weapons were used by the regime, reviewed the
impact, and actually was afraid that they would be discovered. We
know this.

And we know what they did next. I personally called the Foreign
Minister of Syria and I said to him, “If, as you say, your nation
has nothing to hide, then let the United Nations in immediately
and give the inspectors the unfettered access so they have the
opportunity to tell your story.” Instead, for four days they
shelled the neighborhood in order to destroy evidence, bombarding
block after block at a rate four times higher than they had over
the previous 10 days. And when the UN inspectors finally gained
access, that access, as we now know, was restricted and
controlled."<END QUOTE>

What form will the attack take? Almost all analysts say that there
will be three days of cruise missile strikes, launched from five
destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea.

According to one assessment from a U.S. official, the intensity of the
attack will be "just muscular enough not to get mocked" but not so
devastating that it would prompt a response from Syrian allies Iran
and Russia. However, the attack may be mocked anyway.

Many analysts, both Republican and Democrat, are concerned that this
will be a "pinprick" strike, allowed al-Assad to brag that he survived
an attack by the Great Satan, and then will just go on killing his
people, with and without chemical weapons. So the concern is that the
attack will be worse than doing nothing. U.S. Dept. of State and LA Times

****
**** Britain's leaders engage in soul-searching
****


1782 - The Last Time This Happened (Daily Mail)

After Britain's prime minister David Cameron's shocking defeat on
Thursday in the House of Commons, and his subsequent announcement
that Britain will not be participating in any military action
in Syria, many British politicians are going through some
soul-searching.

The vote against Cameron was led by his opposition leader,
David Miliband, leader of the Labor Party, who said:

<QUOTE>"People are deeply concerned about the chemical
weapons attacks in Syria, but they want us to learn the lessons of
Iraq.

They don't want a rush to war. They want things done in the right
way, working with the international community."<END QUOTE>

Miliband was branded a 'f****** c***' who was giving 'succour to"
Assad', and on Friday he did a partial flip-flop, saying, "I don't
think the Government should wash its hands of this issue."

According to Lord Hurd, foreign secretary from 1989-95:

<QUOTE>"I cannot for the life of me see how dropping some
bombs or firing some missiles in the direction of Syria, with
targets probably some way removed from the weapons that we have
been criticizing, will lessen the suffering of the Syrian
people."<END QUOTE>

Many people pointed to the sense of déjà vu, as if the days leading up
the 2003 Iraq invasion were being replayed, with the same kinds of
intelligence reports talking about WMDs.

However, Lord Paddy Ashdown, born 1941, told the BBC (my
transcription), referring to the 1938 Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia:

<QUOTE>"I think the consequences for that [yesterday's vote]
are that we are a diminished country this morning. The special
relationship [with the United States] will certainly be damaged,
maybe grievously so.

Speaking as somebody who spent nearly 50 years trying to serve our
country one way or the other, I woke up this morning feeling
depressed, and I must say, I'm somewhat ashamed, that now I must
watch those people die in agony, in Syria, and including people,
kids being napalmed yesterday, and say that the response of my
country has nothing to do with me. ...

But I think there's a real danger that Britain certainly returns
to isolationism. I think there's a real danger that the world
will itself go into a period of isolationism, if something doesn't
concern us, then we don't need to be bothered.

[In the 1930s, people said,] 'Czechoslovakia is far away country
of which we need know little.' You remember the famous phrase from
the 1930s, and how badly it turned out in the end. Of course I
recognize that parliament yesterday was representing the national
will. There's no mood for this. Strong mood against it in the
country. But we should just remember that when Neville
Chamberlain came back from Munich with the peace of paper that
said 'Peace in our time,' he was the most popular prime minister
before or since we've ever had. And Churchill was deeply
unpopular. Which of these two proved to be right?"<END QUOTE>

Daily Mail (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Barack Obama, John Kerry,
Britain, David Cameron, Lord Hurd, Paddy Ashdown,
Neville Chamberlain, Winston Churchill, Czechoslovakia

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*** 1-Sep-13 World View -- U.S. foreign policy in chaos as Obama reverses himself on Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• President Obama announces major retreat on Syria issue
• History's 'Peace in our time' from 1938 repeats itself
• Russia's Putin calls the accusations 'utter nonsense'
• Winston Churchill, Cassandra and me

****
**** President Obama announces major retreat on Syria issue
****


Lots of unhappy faces in this official White House Situation Room photo from Saturday

United States foreign policy went into complete chaos on Saturday,
after President Barack Obama announced a major retreat on military
action in Syria:

<QUOTE>"Now, after careful deliberation, I have decided that
the United States should take military action against Syrian
regime targets. This would not be an open-ended intervention. We
would not put boots on the ground. Instead, our action would be
designed to be limited in duration and scope. But I'm confident we
can hold the Assad regime accountable for their use of chemical
weapons, deter this kind of behavior, and degrade their capacity
to carry it out.

Our military has positioned assets in the region. The Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs has informed me that we are prepared to strike
whenever we choose. Moreover, the Chairman has indicated to me
that our capacity to execute this mission is not time-sensitive;
it will be effective tomorrow, or next week, or one month from
now. And I'm prepared to give that order.

But having made my decision as Commander-in-Chief based on what I
am convinced is our national security interests, I'm also mindful
that I'm the President of the world's oldest constitutional
democracy. I've long believed that our power is rooted not just in
our military might, but in our example as a government of the
people, by the people, and for the people. And that's why I've
made a second decision: I will seek authorization for the use of
force from the American people's representatives in
Congress."<END QUOTE>

This is a sharp reversal from earlier Administration statements
that the White House would not seek Congressional approval
before proceeding.

It's thought that Obama retreated because of public polls that show
that almost 80% of all Americans are opposed to the military action,
with bitter splits in both the Republican and Democratic parties,
triggering anti-war protests in cities around the world. Republicans
have been especially critical of the weakness of the planned "pin
prick," sending cruise missiles that would, according to critics,
accomplish nothing except make Obama feel better.

President Obama could call Congress back immediately, but instead
will wait until Congress is back in scheduled session on September 9.
That means that any military strike, if it occurs at all, will be
delayed for several weeks.

President Obama's retreat is in sharp contrast to the strong words in
Friday's statement by Secretary of State John Kerry:

<QUOTE>"It matters because if we choose to live in a world
where a thug and a murderer like Bashar al-Assad can gas thousands
of his own people with impunity, even after the United States and
our allies said no, and then the world does nothing about it,
there will be no end to the test of our resolve and the dangers
that will flow from those others who believe that they can do as
they will."<END QUOTE>

If President Obama had said from the start that he would ask
for a vote from Congress as, for example, President George Bush
did before the Iraq action, then there probably wouldn't be
an issue.

But having initially said that he would go ahead on his own, now
throwing this foreign policy decision into a bitterly divided
dysfunctional Congress is going to postpone a decision, but won't
resolve any issues. Anti-war protests will increase substantially,
Bashar al-Assad will use the time to protect his assets, and the exact
form that the military action will take will be openly debated for the
next month. It's far from clear that Congress will approve any
military action, which means that Obama's "decision" to go ahead will
be annulled -- which means that he hasn't made any decision after all.
It's hard to believe that this retreat is anything but a way to avoid
making a decision and blame it on Congress.

This is one more chaotic flip-flop in a foreign policy that's already
in chaos. After a year of major retreats and flip-flops on announced
"red lines" in Syria, a recent announced Afghanistan peace process
that collapsed within 24 hours, a recent announced Mideast peace
process that almost everyone in the Mideast considers a joke, and now
a major flip-flop on Syria intervention, there is no reason to believe
that President Obama or anyone on his foreign policy team has the
vaguest clue what's going on in the world. NPR and NBC News

****
**** History's 'Peace in our time' from 1938 repeats itself
****


Neville Chamberlain, returning from a 1938 meeting with Hitler, promising "Peace in our time," holding up a signed agreement

Throughout my life I've heard teachers and politicians ridicule
Britain's prime minister Neville Chamberlain who, in 1938, returned
from a meeting with the psychopathic Adolf Hitler with a promise of
"Peace in our time." I've heard Chamberlain's name reviled for
decades, for having "appeased" Hitler. It's personally astonishing to
me to see the same kind of thing happen with the psychopathic Bashar
al-Assad.

It's worth repeating a couple of sentences from the lengthy statement
from Britain's Lord Paddy Ashdown that I reported
yesterday:

<QUOTE>"But we should just remember that when Neville
Chamberlain came back from Munich with the peace of paper that
said 'Peace in our time,' he was the most popular prime minister
before or since we've ever had. And Churchill was deeply
unpopular. Which of these two proved to be right?"<END QUOTE>

Like Neville Chamberlain's appeasement, Barack Obama's reversal is
going to be extremely popular, given the strong public opposition to
the Syria intervention. But making decisions based on polls can solve
problems temporarily, but create greater problems later on.

Whether we like it or not, America is policeman of the world, and has
been since the end of World War II. People always ask me the
question, "Who made us policemen of the world?" So it's worth taking
a moment to answer that question.

The U.S. became Policeman of the World with the Truman Doctrine, put forth by President
Harry Truman in 1947:

<QUOTE>"This is a serious course upon which we embark. I
would not recommend it except that the alternative is much more
serious. The United States contributed $341,000,000,000 toward
winning World War II. This is an investment in world freedom and
world peace. The assistance that I am recommending for Greece and
Turkey amounts to little more than 1 tenth of 1 percent of this
investment. It is only common sense that we should safeguard this
investment and make sure that it was not in vain. The seeds of
totalitarian regimes are nurtured by misery and want. They spread
and grow in the evil soil of poverty and strife. They reach their
full growth when the hope of a people for a better life has
died"<END QUOTE>

President John F. Kennedy, in his inaugural address in 1961, echoed
the Truman Doctrine:

<QUOTE>"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or
ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any
hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the
survival and the success of liberty. This much we pledge -- and
more."<END QUOTE>

Since WW II, we've signed mutual defense treaties with numerous
countries, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand (ANZUS treaty), the Philippines, Israel, Europe, Iceland, and
others. All of these countries have cut back on their own military in
the last 65 years because they've counted on U.S. protection.
President Obama's foreign policy has made a number of countries doubt
that their mutual defense treaty with the United States is worth
anything.

With regard to Syria, thanks to 2 1/2 years of weakness on the part of
the Policeman of the World, we already see a gathering of powerful
forces in the region. On the one side, we see Russia supplying
powerful weapons to Syria, with thousands of soldiers being supplied
by Iran and Hezbollah. On the other we see Saudi Arabia and other
Arab states becoming increasingly concerned about the slaughter of
Sunni Muslims by Syria, Russia and Iran. We also see Sunni jihadists
from Pakistan to Nigeria to Dagestan being trained for combat in
Syria.

When the policeman stops doing his job, violence and chaos break
out. We see this in Chicago's South Side, and we see it in
the Mideast.

****
**** Russia's Putin calls the accusations 'utter nonsense'
****

Russia's president Vladimir Putin said the following on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"Syrian government troops are on the offensive and
have the opposition contained within several areas. In this
situation, to give those calling for intervention such a trump
card is utter nonsense. ...

Regarding the position of our American colleagues, who affirm that
government troops used chemical weapons, and say that they have
proof, well, let them show it to the United Nations inspectors and
the Security Council. If they don't show it, that means there is
none."<END QUOTE>

A lot of this is laughable. Russia feels free to invade anyone it
wishes, without requesting Security Council approval. In fact, Russia
still has troops in Georgia after Russia's 2008 invasion, and has, in
effect, annexed two of Georgia's provinces, South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. All this was done with no public debate and no
authorization from the United Nations or any international body.

In fact, Russia's policy since the Libyan action has been to use the
United Nations to cripple NATO and the United States, leaving it free
to pursue any military operations it wants. The policy has been
astonishingly successful. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)

Here's what I wrote in 2011:

<QUOTE>"However, now that the military action is turning into
a stalemate of indefinite duration, Russia is realizing a number
of political objectives, including the ability to cripple Nato
through United Nations politics. ...

Russia plans to demand that Nato restrict its activities to only
the humanitarian acts allowed by the UN resolution, and then veto
any attempt to expand the resolution in the Security Council, in
order to guarantee a continued stalemate in Libya.

This will set a precedent that allows Russia to effectively
control future activities of Nato, since only activities approved
by the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever be
permitted.

Moscow has a broader interest in seeing the US and NATO tied down
in wars of choice and other protracted confrontations. These wars
increase Russia’s leeway for action in ex-Soviet territories,
which is Russia's top priority, according to the article.
Furthermore, if Libya's oil exports are stopped, then Russia's own
oil exports become more valuable."<END QUOTE>

This policy has been followed for three years, and is wildly
successful.

****
**** Winston Churchill, Cassandra and me
****

When Churchill spoke about what the Nazis were doing, he was ridiculed
and disbelieved. When Hitler proved Chamberlain disastrously wrong,
Churchill became Prime Minister, and is viewed by history as one of
the great heroes of the 20th century. However, the moment the war
ended, Churchill was still so reviled that he couldn't even win an
election in his own district.

[Correction from a reader: Churchill won his district, but his
Conservative party lost so many seats to Clement Atlee's Labour party
in 1946 that Labour was able to name the Prime Minister - which is not
an elective office in Britain. And Churchill kept on winning his
district until he retired at age 89.]

We now know what happened in the 1930s, because exactly the same thing
is happening today, with people in Washington totally oblivious to
what's going on.

I identify very closely with the mythical Cassandra. Zeus fell in
love with her, and gave her a gift: The ability to accurately foretell
the future. When she spurned him, he cursed her by allowing her to
keep her gift of accurately foretelling the future, but no one would
believe anything she said. She was disbelieved and ridiculed when she
warned about the Trojan Horse, but she was ignored, and the people
were massacred. After the war was over she was reviled and raped,
similar to what happened to Churchill, though more violent. Later,
Cassandra became King Agamemnon's mistress, and she told him that his
wife, Clytemnestra, would kill them both. He didn't believe her, and
Clytemnestra killed them both.

I am the living embodiment of Cassandra, but not good looking like
her. Generational Dynamics has not exactly made me popular. I'm
shunned even by some people that I've known since college. So the
story of what's happened to Cassandra is exactly what's happened to
me, which indicates that the ancient Greeks discovered some eternal
truths.

But popular or not, in the past ten years, Generational Dynamics has
been right, just as Winston Churchill was right.

I've received a lot of criticism in the past week, from people on the
left and right calling me names and accusing me of advocating an
invasion of Syria. Actually, I've never recommended anything of the
sort. I'm an analyst, and I rarely recommend anything. I apply the
Generational Dynamics methodology to tell what's going on, and whether
you like it or not, for the last ten years my forecasts and analyses
have been shown to be the most accurate in the world, more accurate
than any web site, journalist, analyst and politician.

Some people, sycophants of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad,
criticize me for calling him a psychopath. But what I've seen is that
we're dealing with two psychopathic leaders -- al-Assad and Putin --
both worthy of being perpetrators on a tv show like "Criminal Minds."
But instead of mutilating and dismembering one person at a time,
they're doing it on a mass scale. And instead of a small FBI profile
team finding and arresting the perpetrator, an entire armed force will
be required to stop Syria's atrocities. Fortunately or unfortunately,
the United States is still policeman of the world, and whether we like
it or not, we're going to be forced militarily to deal with the Syria
situation sooner or later. Obama's flip-flop will only make
it worse.

However, I will make one recommendation to my readers: Don't go too
far out on a limb being a supporter of Bashar al-Assad, because
history tells us that this is a man whose life is not going to end
well.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Barack Obama,
John Kerry, Afghanistan, Neville Chamberlain, Winston Churchill,
Adolf Hitler, Lord Paddy Ashdown, Truman Doctrine,
Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Georgia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Cassandra

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