Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

** Book 1 - Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization I
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...alization1.htm

** Book 2 - Chapter 10 - Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning Model
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...2.tftmodel.htm

** 3-Jan-11 News -- Britain celebrates the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...gd.e110103.htm

Sorry, I was looking through your site and was beginning to wonder. Yes, you did give credit.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Reflecting Xenakis "pro-American" bias, I see.


He is obviously younger than me, probably a Gen Xer or very late Boomer, and his understanding of generations is superficial, emotional and exaggerated. Like most Gen Xers, his dislike of boomers is poorly disguised, and his admiration of civics is unmistakeable. He shares this with Strauss and Howe. As a Boomer who grew up under these "heroes," I could never agree with their opinion. No generational archetype is better than another; each has its talents and foibles.

If you check John Xenakis' profile, you will see that he is a War Baby, born in 1944. Just on the Boom side of the Silent/Boom cusp, according to S&H. And older than you.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

If you check John Xenakis' profile, you will see that he is a War Baby, born in 1944. Just on the Boom side of the Silent/Boom cusp, according to S&H. And older than you.

At this point, Eric pretty much reflexively labels anyone who disagrees with him an Xer. He did it to me just the other day. It is certainly an... Interesting trait of his.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

If you check John Xenakis' profile, you will see that he is a War Baby, born in 1944. Just on the Boom side of the Silent/Boom cusp, according to S&H. And older than you.

And if you look at the posts on his own forum, John has plenty of his own anti-Xer rants. (Though, to be fair, he does try and differentiate between the groups of Xers he feels are bad actors in the society and the generation as a whole.)

*** 11-Sep-13 World View -- Pakistan's attempts at peace with Taliban seem doomed to failure

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's attempts at peace with Taliban seem doomed to failure
• Bird flu and MERS virus show new potential for spreading

****
**** Pakistan's attempts at peace with Taliban seem doomed to failure
****

Nawaz Sharif, the new PM of Pakistan, made a campaign promise that he
would negotiate with the Pakistan Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
- TTP), so that TTP would stop terrorist bombing strikes on Pakistani
targets, presumably leaving them free to focus on terrorist attacks on
Nato and Afghan government sites in Afghanistan. At the time, I
indicated that Sharif's campaign promise was a dream.

So, since taking office, Sharif has been attempting to fulfill his
promise, but he's had one problem after another.

First, the Punjabi branch of the TTP said that they weren't interested
in peace talks, so they went their separate way. Then
Lashkar-e-Janghvi (LeJ), which has set as its goal the extermination
of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been methodically setting off
bombs in order to achieve that goal, also said that they weren't
interested in peace talks, and so LeJ went its separate way.

That left the TTP with a couple of its branches missing. Then, on May
29, a TTP leader was killed by a U.S. drone strike in the tribal
region of Pakistan. The TTP decided to "completely cancel" its offer
to talk, and said, "We will teach a lesson to Pakistan and United
States for depriving us of our leader."

According to an Indian analysis, Pakistan continues to offer broad
state support to "a wide range of jihadist formations" operating
against Afghanistan and India. The analysis adds that Pakistan's
"policy of duplicity" is failing "to contain the blowback of violence
within the country."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, India and Pakistan
are headed for a major war between Sunni Muslims versus Hindus and
Shia Muslims, refighting the bloody genocidal war between Muslims and
Hindus that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian
subcontinent into India and Pakistan. Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)

****
**** Bird flu and MERS virus show new potential for spreading
****

There are two different deadly flu viruses floating around, each
showing greater potential than before to start a worldwide pandemic.

The new H7N9 bird flu is showing "unique traits" in China that make it
more likely to spread. In particular, it is able to infect both the
nose and the lungs, making it easy to spread, and making it likely to
cause death from pneumonia. This indicates that a mutation has
occurred, making the new bird flu virus easier to spread. Since the
H7N9 outbreak began last spring, 135 people have been infected, and
there have been 44 deaths.

The second virus potentially capable of producing a deadly pandemic is
the extremely lethal Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus
(MERS-CoV). Researchers have thought that virus is contained in Saudi
Arabia, where it has infected 114 people, and killed 54.

However, it now turns out that the MERS virus may already have spread
much farther. Dromedary camels, water buffaloes and cows in Cairo,
Egypt, and also in the Nile Delta region, turn out to have blood
antibodies from the MERS-CoV virus. The animals had been imported
from Sudan, indicating that the virus may already have spread there,
causing more infections and deaths that have gone unreported.

There is already grave concern that the Hajj, which will bring
millions of Muslims from around the world to Saudi Arabia in October
for their once in a lifetime pilgrimage, will result in the spread of
MERS-CoV to countries around the world.

Potential flu pandemics in recent years have been contained because of
strenuous efforts by the World Health Organization (WHO), and that in
fact may happen again. However, the world is overdue for a major
deadly flu pandemic, and either H7N9 or MERS-CoV are possible
candidates. BBC and Recombinomics


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif,
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ,
H7N9 bird flu, China, Saudi Arabia, Sudan,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

If you check John Xenakis' profile, you will see that he is a War Baby, born in 1944. Just on the Boom side of the Silent/Boom cusp, according to S&H. And older than you.

Well, I got that wrong too. Just goes to show, even I can make mistakes I should have known better, remembering how anti-boomer many boomers are, including Strauss and Howe.

Originally Posted by stilltim

And if you look at the posts on his own forum, John has plenty of his own anti-Xer rants. (Though, to be fair, he does try and differentiate between the groups of Xers he feels are bad actors in the society and the generation as a whole.)

But does he make as many anti-millie or anti-GI rants? That's what I wonder. His views on generations, while well-written and concise, seem over-simplified, and pro-civic.

Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed

At this point, Eric pretty much reflexively labels anyone who disagrees with him an Xer. He did it to me just the other day. It is certainly an... Interesting trait of his.

I disagree with you. You are obviously an Xer who won't admit it. Come on, admit it!!

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

But does he make as many anti-millie or anti-GI rants? That's what I wonder. His views on generations, while well-written and concise, seem over-simplified, and pro-civic.

We're in a generational Crisis era, and I'm generally most approving
of people who remember the lessons of the previous crisis era, and
those are almost always survivors of the last crisis era.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

We're in a generational Crisis era, and I'm generally most approving of people who remember the lessons of the previous crisis era, and those are almost always survivors of the last crisis era.

H-m-m-m. The people least able to appreciate the previous crisis are the ones least able to see it for what it was. Silents seem particulay prone to that, though the Xers are not great at it either. Both seem to believe that the curent crisis is manafestly different than the GD, or they believe that the way to address it needs to be different. In either case, theirs are the generations most prone to support the status quo of ineffective government ... unless they wish to see it even less regulated than it is now. Boomers aren't all that great either, so the heavy lifting will fall to the Millies, or we fail this time.

FWIW, I don't see a crisis war this time. The stakes are still too high, and the big nuclear powers are content to fight proxy wars. That could change, but there are no indications of that today.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

We're in a generational Crisis era, and I'm generally most approving
of people who remember the lessons of the previous crisis era, and
those are almost always survivors of the last crisis era.

But they are not alive when the next crisis era begins, which is why there's a crisis era, right? So, they can't remember. It is up to us to remember, if we can.

The problem also being that they often drew the wrong lessons from the Crisis Era, such as the Munich Doctrine which led to our horrible and ghastly, deadly error in Vietnam. The big institutions they made were often ineffective (you mentioned the IMF and the Green Revolution for example). They were top-down oriented and inflexible. They built highways, suburbs and car factories with no thought to sustainability or the environment. They took their wartime mindset and imposed it on society throughout their lives. They were limited to a crisis mindset, which means they were too materialistic. I don't mean to say they are all bad, any more than you should say they are all good. I'm just injecting some balance into your view.

There are lessons to be learned from all the turnings. Every generation seeks to adjust their lives and society to what they grew up and came of age with, to learn its lessons. When they pass on, and even as younger people come along while they are still alive, we often forget their lessons. The saeculum will be more functional if we learn not to forget as much.

Afghanistan borders on Xinjiang province of China-which has a Muslim majority.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

H-m-m-m. The people least able to appreciate the previous crisis are the ones least able to see it for what it was. Silents seem particulay prone to that, though the Xers are not great at it either. Both seem to believe that the curent crisis is manafestly different than the GD, or they believe that the way to address it needs to be different. In either case, theirs are the generations most prone to support the status quo of ineffective government ... unless they wish to see it even less regulated than it is now. Boomers aren't all that great either, so the heavy lifting will fall to the Millies, or we fail this time.

FWIW, I don't see a crisis war this time. The stakes are still too high, and the big nuclear powers are content to fight proxy wars. That could change, but there are no indications of that today.

So far the Crisis in America centers around labor-management relations and around polarization in politics. It may be no exaggeration that Big Business is doing everything possible to enrich elites of ownership and management at the expense of everyone else. I have said enough of that for a book. Our elites seek a command economy in which people obey or else, have no choices, and remain destitute despite their efforts. This is outside the public myth of America honoring freedom and opportunity as rights inherent in being an America. A zero-sum economy with entrenched elites making life plush for themselves at the expense of themselves yet pretending to be free is a severe contradiction that resolves itself as one or the other, and without a likely compromise.

Regional polarization?

Just look at 2008. Barack Obama won sixteen states and the District of Columbia by margins of 15% or more and lost ten by a similar margin. Either way that is about 57-42 at the least, indicating a catastrophic failure of one of the nominees to reach some state populations. 2012 had thirteen states going for the incumbent President by at least 15% and fifteen states going against the incumbent President by a margin of at least 15%. The same Presidential candidate was losing by a landslide (averaging about 62-38, I figure) in about a third of all states and winning by a landslide (likewise) in about a third.

Want to know what a 61-38 landslide looks like on a national scale? Look at 1972:

President Vice-President Party Total votes Pct. Electoral votes

Richard Nixon Spiro Agnew Republican 47,168,710 60.67% 520
George McGovern R. Sargent Shriver Democratic 29,173,222 37.52% 17

and 1936:

Franklin Roosevelt John Garner Democratic 27,752,648 60.80% 523 98.5%
Alfred Landon Frank Knox Republican 16,681,862 36.54% 8 1.5%

These are two of the most lopsided electoral wins in modern American history. The loser is going to get 36% of the total vote in a fair, binary election as partisan votes and protest votes as a minimum.

> FWIW, I don't see a crisis war this time. The stakes are still too
> high, and the big nuclear powers are content to fight proxy
> wars. That could change, but there are no indications of that
> today.

This illustrates what I mean. In my experience, a Silent would never
say anything like this, because they're well aware that these reasons
are irrelevant, and a crisis war (via a "regeneracy" event) could
start at any time, even tomorrow.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

This illustrates what I mean. In my experience, a Silent would never say anything like this, because they're well aware that these reasons are irrelevant, and a crisis war (via a "regeneracy" event) could start at any time, even tomorrow.

This isn't 1914, and we're not going to start that kind of war over anything short of a nuclear strike. I can't see the Russians or the Chinese engaging either. Nut cases like the North Koreans wouldn't garner support if they decided to start a major war, and the Iranians are anxious to regain lost eminence. Who else can start one? Maybe the French.

*** 12-Sep-13 World View -- North Korea apparently restarting its nuclear reactor

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea apparently restarting its nuclear reactor
• North and South Korea reopen Kaesong Industrial Park

****
**** North Korea apparently restarting its nuclear reactor
****


August 31 satellite photo shows white smoke coming from electrical power generating building in nuclear complex (38North)

Satellite images from August 31, 2013, shows white steam rising from a
building near the reactor hall that houses the gas-graphite reactor’s
steam turbines and electric generators. The reactor generates
electricity by using the heat from the nuclear reaction in the core to
create steam that spins the turbines. The white coloration and volume
are consistent with steam being vented because the electrical
generating system is about to come online, indicating that the reactor
is in or nearing operation. The reactor is capable of producing
plutonium that can be used in nuclear weapons.

This news comes just after the Syria debacle, where President Barack
Obama has essentially ceded victory to Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad and Russia's president Vladimir Putin over Assad's use of
chemical weapons against innocent Syrian victims.

In April of this year, Secretary of State John Kerry said during a
visit to South Korea:

<QUOTE>"We are all united in the fact that North Korea will
not be accepted as a nuclear power. The rhetoric that we're
hearing from North Korea is simply unacceptable."<END QUOTE>

This statement is silly anyway, since North Korea has already been a
nuclear power for several years. But now North Korea is apparently
starting up its nuclear reactor, and saying that North Korea as a
nuclear power is "unacceptable" sounds a lot like saying that Syria
using chemical weapons is "unacceptable."

Why should anyone pay attention to anything that anyone in the Obama
administration says, anyway? It's all fatuous hot air. 38 North and Reuters

****
**** North and South Korea reopen Kaesong Industrial Park
****

North and South Korea have agreed to reopen the Kaesong Industrial
Park for a trial production run on Monday. North Korea's child
dictator Kim Jong-un had shut down the complex in April when he threw
his temper tantrum, threatening to shoot missiles at Japan, South
Korea, and America. Several attempts at talks have collapsed without
agreement.

Kaesong Industrial Complex was built in North Korea in 2004 as a joint
venture between the North and South, and was considered a symbol of
peaceful cooperation until April, when the North Koreans suddenly
withdrew their 53,000 workers from the project. Since the North
refused to negotiate, the South finally withdrew its thousand or so
employees, effectively shutting the complex down. Kaesong was a major
source of hard currency for the North Koreans, tens of millions of
dollars per year, and so the child dictator's temper tantrum has been
costing North Korea a great deal of money. The child dictator has
essentially capitulated on South Korea's demands, but is making up for
it by restarting his nuclear reactor. Yonhap (Seoul)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea,
John Kerry, Kim Jong-un, Kaesong Industrial Complex

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Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

H-m-m-m. The people least able to appreciate the previous crisis are the ones least able to see it for what it was. Silents seem particulay prone to that, though the Xers are not great at it either. Both seem to believe that the curent crisis is manafestly different than the GD, or they believe that the way to address it needs to be different. In either case, theirs are the generations most prone to support the status quo of ineffective government ... unless they wish to see it even less regulated than it is now. Boomers aren't all that great either, so the heavy lifting will fall to the Millies, or we fail this time.

FWIW, I don't see a crisis war this time. The stakes are still too high, and the big nuclear powers are content to fight proxy wars. That could change, but there are no indications of that today.

Hah! That's not what THIS Silent has been saying! I've been trying to shove Galbraith's "Great Crash of '29" down people's throats for the past 5 years! 'Cause I knows one when I sees one, and was able to pay off my mortgage as the housing bubble was getting going.

Eric said "But they are not alive when the next crisis era begins, which is why there's a crisis era, right? So, they can't remember. It is up to us to remember, if we can."

Oh, yes, we are.

The key difference seems to be whether one has adult memories of the previous 4T. Actually, when it comes to economics, having no direct memory at all seems to be key-if economic distress was before your time, you won't let dusty old facts keep you from doing what you want to do-like blowing bubbles.

Nevertheless, we are stuck with a 4T, because of the economy, if nothing else. Actually, I would also include political polarization.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Eric said "But they are not alive when the next crisis era begins, which is why there's a crisis era, right? So, they can't remember. It is up to us to remember, if we can."

Oh, yes, we are.

You are not a GI gen, which was the topic under discussion with Mr. Xenakis.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Hah! That's not what THIS Silent has been saying! I've been trying to shove Galbraith's "Great Crash of '29" down people's throats for the past 5 years! 'Cause I knows one when I sees one, and was able to pay off my mortgage as the housing bubble was getting going.

You tell 'em, Pat! I agree with you, and most WW II survivors.

Something is different this time. We have copious records of the worst consequences of the last Crisis War. We have all become witnesses to the Holocaust. We all know about Bataan and T-731. We know what a kamikaze attack is. We know the consequences of thug rule -- that a criminal syndicate such as the Nazi Party or the Imperial Rule Assistance Party brings misery and death. The blatant exceptions are in the Arab world, in part because Arab stats are unwilling to see Jews of the last Crisis as victims of injustice when they are easily seen as conspirators against everything humane and decent.

We know the personality of Adolf Hitler as well as if he were a family member and as such we can truly despise him. There won't be another one of him. Even Stalin has been debunked.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Hah! That's not what THIS Silent has been saying! I've been trying to shove Galbraith's "Great Crash of '29" down people's throats for the past 5 years! 'Cause I knows one when I sees one, and was able to pay off my mortgage as the housing bubble was getting going.

Pat, I know you have a solid appreciation of history - you're one of our best and most knowledgable posters. I wish that was more common, but my experience says otherwise.

Almost all of my neighbors are Silents. They all live very well; most either have corproate pensions or are retired civil servants on the old retirement system. All are shocked at how lazy today's workers are, and have no sympathy for their plights. Every one of them has Medicare Advantage, and bristle if you suggest they should either pay for the extra cost or return to standard Medicare. In short, they live in a world that seems idyllic, at least from their POV, yet is disconnected from reality. I don't even try to alter that perception anymore. It's futile.

I should also note that all our newest neighbors are Aquarian Boomers who differ litle from the Silent model. That may change with time.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> This isn't 1914, and we're not going to start that kind of war
> over anything short of a nuclear strike. I can't see the Russians
> or the Chinese engaging either. Nut cases like the North Koreans
> wouldn't garner support if they decided to start a major war, and
> the Iranians are anxious to regain lost eminence. Who else can
> start one? Maybe the French.

Are you serious? Here are just a few possibilities:

• Pakistan versus India. They almost went to war after the 2008
  terrorist attack in Mumbai by the LeT.
  
• In Central Asia, Kyrgyz versus Uzbeks
  
• Tensions between China and Japan are growing quickly over the
  Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
  
• A clash between China versus Vietnam or the Philippines that
  spirals out of control.
  
• Iran versus Saudi Arabia.
  
• Hezbollah versus Israel.
  
• Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh are
  growing rapidly. Israel is supporting Azerbaijan, while Russia is
  supporting Armenia.
  
• Buddhists versus Muslims in Burma (Myanmar)

Any one of these could start out as a small regional war and
expand into a larger war, drawing in allies.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

> Almost all of my neighbors are Silents. They all live very well;
> most either have corproate pensions or are retired civil servants
> on the old retirement system. All are shocked at how lazy today's
> workers are, and have no sympathy for their plights. Every one of
> them has Medicare Advantage, and bristle if you suggest they
> should either pay for the extra cost or return to standard
> Medicare. In short, they live in a world that seems idyllic, at
> least from their POV, yet is disconnected from reality. I don't
> even try to alter that perception anymore. It's futile.

These people are acting like jerks, but I was referring to their
world view, rather than their living habits.

However, let's speculate a little. Why do Silents act like this?

You say that they consider younger people to be lazy, so they may
have decided that they've worked hard all their lives and they've
paid into Social Security and other taxes their whole lives, and
now they deserve the benefits they've already paid for, and so
they're going to act like this.

So that's how a Silent jerk acts. How does a similarly jerky Gen-Xer
act? He decides that he hates Boomers and Silents, and joins a
financial institution and defrauds anyone he can.

So there are jerks in every generation, but their world views
are very different.